English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 12/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news
 

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews21/english.april12.21.htm
 

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006

Bible Quotations For today

Early on the first day of the week, while it was still dark, Mary Magdalene came to the tomb and saw that the stone had been removed from the tomb
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 20/01-10/:”Early on the first day of the week, while it was still dark, Mary Magdalene came to the tomb and saw that the stone had been removed from the tomb. So she ran and went to Simon Peter and the other disciple, the one whom Jesus loved, and said to them, ‘They have taken the Lord out of the tomb, and we do not know where they have laid him.’ Then Peter and the other disciple set out and went towards the tomb. The two were running together, but the other disciple outran Peter and reached the tomb first. He bent down to look in and saw the linen wrappings lying there, but he did not go in. Then Simon Peter came, following him, and went into the tomb. He saw the linen wrappings lying there, and the cloth that had been on Jesus’ head, not lying with the linen wrappings but rolled up in a place by itself. Then the other disciple, who reached the tomb first, also went in, and he saw and believed; for as yet they did not understand the scripture, that he must rise from the dead. Then the disciples returned to their homes.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 11-12/2021

Elias Bejjani/Visit My LCCC Web site/All That you need to know on Lebanese unfolding news and events in Arabic and English/http://eliasbejjaninews.com/

Health Ministry: 2,213 new Corona cases, 31 deaths
Rahi presides over Sunday Mass service in Bkerki
Al-Rahi Says No Forensic Audit before Govt. Formation
Aoun: Corrupts Fear Forensic Audit, Innocents Pleased by It
Daryan Says 'Malicious Hands' Obstructing Arab Efforts, French Initiative
Hajjar: No Govt. as Long as a Party Insists on 'Blocking One-Third'
Del Col to NNA: The goal of the cameras is to monitor the Blue Line, protect UNIFIL
Information Ministry publishes list of 51 questions, responses regarding Corona vaccine
Hariri on the passing of AlAllamah AlAmin: With his passing, an enlightened mind who has devoted his life to the good of the Lebanese is lost
Jumblatt mourns the passing of AlAllamah AlAmin
"French initiative over, European sanctions futile," says Makhzoumi
Lebanon Civil War Survivors Say Today's Crisis Even Worse
Most Mideast Economies to Recover by 2022, Lebanon's to Contract Further
How gas windfall could save Lebanon from bankruptcy/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/April 12/ 2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published  on April 11-12/2021
Pope celebrates mass of 'mercy' with prisoners, refugees
Israel Says Will Help Ensure a 'New' Iran Deal Protects Interests
Gantz to Austin: We will work with US to ensure new Iran deal protects Israel
Iran Says Nuclear Facility Hit by Act of 'Terrorism'
What Iran is saying about the Natanz incident
Israel’s decades-long battle against Iran’s centrifuges at Natanz
Iran: 'Accident' at nuclear plant
'Mossad behind cyber attack against Iran's Natanz nuclear facility'
What is going on in Iran? Cyber experts weigh in
Defense officials call to probe leak of alleged Israeli op. against Iran
Has Morocco Carried Out Its First Drone Strike in Western Sahara?
First joint appearance of King Abdullah and former Crown Prince Hamzah since the crisis
 

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published  on April 11-12/2021

France: Macron Gave Up Fighting Radicalism/Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/April 11/2021
What Makes Erdogan Tick?/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/April 11/2021
Iran: Between Illusion and Reality/Amir Taheri/Asharq al-Awsat/April 11/2021
Why Iran-Israel tensions are on the rise again/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/April 12/ 2021
Tangled web of the new nuclear deal talks/Maria Maalouf/Arab News/April 12/ 2021
US secretary of defense aims to deescalate Israel-Iran tensions/Daoud Kuttab/Aarab News/April 12/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published  on April 11-12/2021

Health Ministry: 2,213 new Corona cases, 31 deaths
NNA/April 12/ 2021
The Ministry of Public Health announced, on Sunday, the registration of 2,213 new Corona infections, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 496,846.
It also indicated that 31 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.

Rahi presides over Sunday Mass service in Bkerki
NNA/April 12/ 2021
“Coronavirus invaded the globe, wiping out the power of people and money,” Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Beshara Boutros al-Rahi, said during a Mass service held in Bkirki this morning. “Don''t you notice that the value of life is in returning to God?“ Rahi asked, emphasizing that the circumstance in which we live in Lebanon, which is described as a "double economic crisis" due to the consequences of the Corona epidemic, assures official that this is not a time of conflicts and sterile political alignments, but rather a time for joint action to save the country and the people. “The people are looking for rescuers, some give up the state, others take it over, and a few care about the people's pain,” the Patriarch added. Al-Rahi called for the government's support to fulfill its duties, as it is the reference in this crisis. “The government is required to strengthen its capacity and move away from any tutelage that limits aid from donor countries, and to work on returning stolen funds and expediting the implementation of the reform plan for the benefit of the people,” the Patriarch stressed.Al-Rahi also considered that "there is no forensic audit before the formation of the government."
 

Al-Rahi Says No Forensic Audit before Govt. Formation
Naharnet/April 12/ 2021
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday warned against selectivity and bias in the issue of conducting a forensic audit of the central bank’s accounts, days after President Michel Aoun urged the Lebanese to support him in what he called the forensic audit battle. “The call for a forensic audit would be serious if it is comprehensive, not intentionally selective. And in the first place, there can be no forensic audit before the formation of the government,” al-Rahi said in his Sunday Mass sermon. He accordingly called on all those forming the government to “stop this obstruction through the fabrication of National Pact norms, constitutional interpretations, imaginary powers and absurd conditions to cover up for the main obstacle, which is that some have offered Lebanon as a hostage in the regional-international conflict.” He added: “But what we fear is that the intention from the blocking of the government might be to prevent the arrival of aid to rescue the people from the financial collapse. Some want the situation to get worse so that the people starve and get more impoverished, which would push them to despair, emigrate, bow or accept any settlement.”This would facilitate “the domination of the people and the state,” al-Rahi warned.

Aoun: Corrupts Fear Forensic Audit, Innocents Pleased by It
Naharnet/April 12/ 2021
Corrupts “fear forensic audit” whereas “innocents are pleased by it,” President Michel Aoun said Sunday in a tweet. The president’s tweet comes hours after a stance by Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on the issue. “The call for a forensic audit would be serious if it is comprehensive, not intentionally selective. And in the first place, there can be no forensic audit before the formation of the government,” al-Rahi said in his Sunday Mass sermon. Aoun had on Wednesday urged the Lebanese to support him in the forensic audit “battle,” warning that its fall would undermine the French initiative.“The forensic audit is the gateway for knowing who caused the crime of the financial collapse,” Aoun said in an address to the nation.

Daryan Says 'Malicious Hands' Obstructing Arab Efforts, French Initiative
Naharnet/April 12/ 2021
Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Daryan on Sunday lashed out at “the obstructors of government’s formation,” urging them to end their “intransigence, arrogance, falsification and violation of the constitution.” “There are malicious hands that are covertly working on obstructing the lauded brotherly Arab efforts and foiling the French initiative,” Daryan warned in a message marking the advent of the holy month of Ramadan. “They are trying to carry out an unprecedented political blackmail process,” the Grand Mufti decried. He added: “To all those we say: no misters, Lebanon cannot be built through spiteful actions, bravados, hidden malice and the spread of poisons.”

Hajjar: No Govt. as Long as a Party Insists on 'Blocking One-Third'
Naharnet/April 12/ 2021
MP Mohammed al-Hajjar of al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc stressed Sunday that “there will be no government as long as there is a party that is obstructing and insisting on the ‘blocking one-third.’” “President Michel Aoun and ex-minister Jebran Bassil are obstructing the formation process,” Hajjar said in a radio interview.“Accordingly, the situation will remain unchanged as long as there is no government of specialists that is in line with the French initiative,” the MP added. Separately, Hajjar said that Hizbullah is insisting on Saad Hariri for the PM-designate post because it believes that he is the “most representative” of the Sunni community. “It experienced him in the previous periods and thus it wants to defuse the tensions and cooperate with him to prevent domestic unrest,” Hajjar added.

Del Col to NNA: The goal of the cameras is to monitor the Blue Line, protect UNIFIL
NNA/April 12/ 2021
UNIFIL Head of Mission and Commander-in-Chief, Major General Stefano Del Col, told the National News Agency that "UNIFIL is installing cameras in some of its locations near the Blue Line, as part of the United Nations' general strategy to maintain the security and protection of UN personnel working in all peacekeeping missions in the world."
"As far as we are concerned, we only install cameras in certain UN locations near the Blue Line, because maintaining it is essential to ensuring stability in the region and preventing any incidents that might cause a wider conflict," he said. "One of our main tasks under UN Security Council Resolution 1701 is to monitor violations of the Blue Line in an independent and impartial manner, and we must be able to do so in any situation, even in crises in which peacekeepers and residents of the region may be at risk, similar to what happened in the past, and to prevent any escalation of tension," the UNIFIl Chief Commander asserted.
He stressed that "the safety of the Blue Line is key to ensuring stability in the region, by helping to prevent any incidents between the parties," adding,
"We are working with our strategic partners, the Lebanese Armed Forces, and we inform them, within the framework of the force's protection, of any situation that may occur along the Blue Line," reiterating that that they are here to "de-escalate any potential tension."
On the location of the cameras, the UNIFIL Chief explained that they would be placed inside UN sites near the Blue Line only, assuring that there will be no cameras in other parts of the area of operations or outside the UN sites, since the sole intention is to help peacekeepers monitor the Blue Line and improve security and the protection of the force.
Asked about the opposition of some residents of the region to this measure, Del Col said: "UNIFIL has a long history in the South, as it is here at the request of the Lebanese government, and our mandate is renewed in August every year. We are proud of the work we have done with the local communities to achieve security and stability in this region. Personally, I am proud that we have worked together for many years, despite challenges, to build strong and fruitful relationships with the people. Our relationship with the population and their trust in us are of prime importance to us. I regret the misunderstandings and misinformation that have undermined this confidence in recent days, but we are listening to our strategic partners, the Lebanese Armed Forces, because we are working closely together to maintain the stability of the situation."
The UNIFIL Commander-in-Chief concluded by indicating that before the Security Council endorsed the Secretary-General's recommendations, they consulted with the Lebanese Armed Forces, emphasizing that they would respect the privacy of the people who live and work near their sites. "We do not have any jurisdiction to monitor inside villages or private homes. We intend to continue engaging the local community to address their concerns cooperatively and productively, just as we have always done in the past," he said, reassuring that "these cameras will only be used as a measure to protect the force."

Information Ministry publishes list of 51 questions, responses regarding Corona vaccine
NNA/April 12/ 2021
The Ministry of Information has published, on its website, a new list (in the English language) that includes 51 questions and answers about the Corona vaccine. The list, which is the result of a joint effort between the Ministries of Public Health and Information, the World Health Organization and UNICEF, sheds light in its first section (comprised of 25 questions) on general information about anti-Corona vaccines, their effectiveness, their side effects, and the time it takes to secure protection for the person receiving the vaccine. The list also eliminates the confusion about the "AstraZeneca" vaccine by confirming its safety and efficacy, and that it does not cause blood clots. It also explains the difference between the different vaccines, and emphasizes that all of them lead to reducing deaths, in addition to their effectiveness against new mutations of the COVID-19 virus.
In its second part (18 questions), the list sheds light on the vaccine's purchase, storage, distribution and quality control, especially in light of the constant power shortage, and the reason why Lebanon chose the Pfizer vaccine in the first vaccination phase; in addition to the components of the vaccine that Lebanon imports for its citizens, and whether it will be able to vaccinate all of its communities. As for the third section (comprising 8 questions), it highlights the possibility of special cases such as pregnant and lactating women and those suffering from chronic diseases obtaining the anti-Corona vaccine, and whether the vaccine is safe in all stages of pregnancy, and whether the vaccine negatively affects fertility. Moreover, answers to several other questions can be found at the following link: https://corona.ministryinfo.gov.lb/

Hariri on the passing of AlAllamah AlAmin: With his passing, an enlightened mind who has devoted his life to the good of the Lebanese is lost
NNA/April 12/ 2021
Prime Minister-designate, Saad Hariri, eulogized today the late religious scholar, Sayyid Mohammad Hassan Al-Amin, saying via Twitter that "with his passing we lose an enlightened mind, who devoted his life to the unity of Muslims and the good of the Lebanese...We ask God Almighty to rest his soul in peace, and we extend our deepest condolences to his son Ali, his family and his loved ones."

Jumblatt mourns the passing of AlAllamah AlAmin
NNA/April 12/ 2021
Progressive Socialist Party Chief, Walid Jumblatt, tweeted on the passing of Al-Allamah Mohammad Hassan Al-Amin, saying: "The passing of Sayyid Mohammad Hassan Al-Amin after a long exile reminds me of Gibran Khalil Gibran's saying - [We are grieving souls, and sadness is great that small souls do not hear...You do not know us, but we know you...We see you because you are standing in the dark light, but you do not see us because we are sitting in the bright darkness]."

"French initiative over, European sanctions futile," says Makhzoumi
NNA/April 12/ 2021
Head of the National Dialogue Party, MP Fouad Makhzoumi, considered that "the French initiative has ended, and French President Emmanuel Macron now only wants a government regardless of its size and the conditions set." "The real force in the country is Hezbollah, which stands behind everyone and sets the impossible conditions for the formation of the government," he said. Speaking in an interview with "Voice of All Lebanon" Radio Channel earlier today, Makhzoumi pointed out that "the position of the Saudi Kingdom is clear in terms of not supporting any government in which Hezbollah is represented," adding that "the Kingdom is not comfortable with the movements of formation consultations. It is now up to Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri to present his line-up to the President of the Republic to make it clear to the public opinion who the real obstructer is..."Referring to the possible European sanctions, Makhzoumi deemed them "useless", particularly since they do not include all the symbols of the political system who have hindered the forensic audit, the Capital Control and the implementation of reforms. He said, "Prime Minister Hariri did not carry out any reforms until today and did not demand the extradition of his father's killers. Rather, he went to form a government with them, and he also did not demand disarming of Hezbollah." "The problem in forming the government is internal, and there are allegations that the outside is interfering with the cabinet formation to justify the failure of officials in Lebanon," Makhzoumi went on. He added, "Hezbollah has an interest in the continuation of Hassan Diab's government, rather than a cabinet in which it has a smaller presence."The MP considered that "the revolution has not ended, and what must be bet on is change in the coming elections," ruling out "early parliamentary elections or forming a government soon, because the interest of the ruling class lies in the caretaker government of PM Hassan Diab supervising the upcoming parliamentary elections."Finally, Makhzoumi indicated that "the absence of control and the smuggling of subsidized goods abroad led to the exacerbation of the economic and social crises," deeming that "the poorest families were among the most affected by the greed of merchants and monopolists," and stressing that "the forensic audit will take place on paper only, not in deed."

Lebanon Civil War Survivors Say Today's Crisis Even Worse
Agence France Presse/April 12/ 2021
During the civil war that ended over 30 years ago Abla Barotta survived shelling and clashes, but she now fears a "slow death" from Lebanon's worst economic crisis in decades. The 58-year-old mother of three is a survivor who worries she will soon join the more than 50 percent of Lebanese today living in poverty. Echoing a common refrain on television and at public gatherings, Barotta said even the worst days of the war weren't this tough. "We used to hide in houses or basements every time we heard shelling during the war, but today, where can we go to hide from hunger, the economic crisis, the coronavirus pandemic and our political leaders?" she said. "We used to fear death from bombardment or sniper fire, but now we fear everything: illness, poverty and hunger."Her voice lowering to a whisper, she added: "To die from shelling is better, at least there is no suffering... while today, we suffer and die slowly every day." Lebanon on Tuesday marks 46 years since clashes erupted in Beirut between Lebanese Christians and Palestinians backed by leftist and Muslim factions, marking the start of a 15-year conflict that drew in regional powers Israel and Syria. At the time, the country was divided into warring sectarian fiefdoms. But many still managed to preserve a semblance of normal life between bouts of heightened violence and kidnappings. The wheels of Lebanon's economy kept turning, bolstered by money and weapons sent to warring parties from abroad. But after the conflict ended in 1990, with 150,000 people killed and 17,000 missing, bitter political divisions continued to plague Lebanon.
'Haven't seen the state'
Endless political deadlock, as well as corruption and negligence, finally gave way to a financial slump now sounding the death knell for a fragile middle class. Since 2019, the Lebanese pound has lost more than 85 percent of its value against the dollar on the black market, and prices have soared.
Customers have come to blows in supermarkets to secure fast-selling subsidized products, while shortages in pharmacies have made buying medicines akin to hunting for treasure. Yet authorities have done little to stem a crisis compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic, which has killed more than 6,600 people, and by last year's port blast which cost more than 200 lives and ravaged swathes of Beirut. "The war was ugly... but we never lived through anything like this economic crisis," Barotta said in her Beirut home, which was hard hit by the August 4 explosion. Her first-floor flat in an old building in the Mar Mikhail neighborhood next to the port has since been renovated and her neck has healed from a blast injury. But she said there is plenty left to worry about. "This anxiety over whether we will be able to eat tomorrow... we've never lived that before," she said. "Sometimes I can't sleep at night." In the blast-strewn Karantina district, also next to the port, Jean Saliba pointed to gutted buildings awaiting renovation and listed the names of families who lost loved ones in Lebanon's worst peace-time disaster. Karantina has since become a stomping ground for non-governmental groups spearheading the reconstruction effort. "We haven't seen the state," said Saliba, a 63-year-old former civil servant. "If it weren't for the money and food handouts distributed by NGOs, people wouldn't have had the strength to go on."
'Collective catastrophe'
Saliba called the monster blast a "collective catastrophe" that made the war-time suffering look like "a drop in the ocean". During the war, people could go back to work when bombardment slowed, he said. But with current unemployment rates approaching 40 percent, many don't have jobs to return to. "Who can earn money at all today?" the father of three asked. "Economically, we are finished." Elsewhere in the capital, Victor Abu Kheir sat idly inside his small barber shop in the Hamra neighborhood. "There are days when I only have one customer, or two at most," the 77-year-old said, wearing an apron. Since it opened in 1965, the shop's decor has remained unchanged, its black leather armchair and glass cabinets harking back to a brighter past. The civil war days, Abu Kheir said, were more "merciful" than those of today's crisis, even if he was briefly kidnapped and survived gunfire hitting his shop. "No one prefers war, but those days were better," he said, adding that he only ever lowered his blinds when bombardment spiked. "There was money and the people were comfortable."

Most Mideast Economies to Recover by 2022, Lebanon's to Contract Further
Agence France Presse/April 12/ 2021
The economies of "early inoculating" countries in the Middle East and North Africa will bounce back to pre-pandemic levels next year, the IMF said Sunday, after raising its 2021 MENA growth forecast. The region, which includes the Arab countries and Iran, saw its real GDP growth shrink by 3.4 percent in 2020 due to lower oil prices and sweeping lockdowns to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. But with rapid vaccination campaigns underway particularly in the Gulf countries, the International Monetary Fund earlier this week predicted that GDP growth would rise to 4.0 percent this year, an upgrade of 0.9 from the last projection. "This recovery is moving on a diverging path with the vaccine rollout and the policy response playing an important role in the quality and the depth of the recovery," Jihad Azour, director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF, told AFP in an interview.
"This multi-speed recovery is on different levels, one between those who are fast in inoculating the vaccine and who will rapidly reach a level of full coverage of their population or 75 percent or so, and those who will be slow in vaccinating, and those who will be late," he added.
In its latest Regional Economic Outlook Update report released Sunday, the IMF said it expects early inoculators' GDP to reach 2019 levels in 2022. By contrast, slow and late inoculators will happen recover sometime between 2022–23, it said. Many countries in the region, especially in the wealthy Gulf, have launched vast vaccination campaigns and are administrating some of the fastest per capita deliveries in the world. By contrast, access to adequate vaccine supplies remains a challenge for many others due to worldwide shortages, internal conflicts or political troubles, and weak finances.
After a 4.8 percent contraction in 2020, oil-rich Gulf states are now expected to grow by 2.7 percent this year, an upgrade of 0.2 percent from October. Lebanon, hit by economic, social, and political crises, is the only country in the region where activity is expected to contract further after its GDP shrank by 25 percent in 2020. The country, which for months has been struggling to form a new government, held talks with the IMF over financial support last year but they quickly hit a wall over lack of political consensus on the reforms needed.
"In the absence of a government, it's very difficult for us to provide other than technical assistance and policy support," said Azour.

How gas windfall could save Lebanon from bankruptcy
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/April 12/ 2021
Lebanese President Michel Aoun gave a speech last week in which he lashed out at the political elite, the central bank and the banking system, holding them responsible for the bankruptcy of the country. He called for a forensic audit, after which the government would become eligible to receive aid. The president mentioned those who had saved for their retirement only to see their savings evaporate, as well as those who can no longer send money to their children studying abroad, those who can’t afford to go to hospital and those who can’t even pay for their daily food.
An audit, if conducted properly, would hurt Aoun’s son-in-law Gebran Bassil, who is already sanctioned for corruption by the US under the Global Magnitsky Act, along with other members of his party and his allies. An audit would mean the end of the current political elite, including the Aoun clan. But an audit is needed to conduct the reforms required if Lebanon is to rise like a phoenix from the ashes.
However, an audit will not return the money of those who deposited their savings in the Lebanese banks. Though Aoun is placing the blame on the banks that did not abide by the country’s credit and money laws, it is the corrupt government that has been asking the central bank to fund its exorbitant and inflated expenses. Hence, the government is responsible for returning people’s hard-earned money — and there should be pressure on it to do so.
People are now exchanging their deposits for 30 cents on the dollar on the black market. Through the banks, savers are undergoing a compulsory “haircut,” as the banks give them 3,900 Lebanese pounds to the dollar, whereas the market rate has been varying between 10,000 and 15,000. Sanitizing the banking sector and returning people’s deposits — at least the initial capital they deposited, without the accumulated interest — is necessary. However, these deposits were made with banks that invested in treasury bonds and the money raised from those bonds was given to the government, which has never paid it back. Refinancing Lebanon’s debt is necessary for the country to regain the confidence of its people and of the international community.
However, there might be a chance to do that if Lebanon plays its cards right when it comes to gas deposits in the Mediterranean. The first step toward being able to exploit these natural resources is to demarcate the country’s maritime borders with Israel, as no company will invest in contested territory. Such talks started during the Obama era, but Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri prevented them from being completed in order to keep a point of contention with Israel and as a poke in the eye to the US. This changed last September, when his Amal Movement colleague Ali Hasan Khalil was sanctioned by the US for corruption and providing material support to Hezbollah. Berri wanted to avoid sanctions at all costs, so he allowed the demarcation negotiations to restart.
Refinancing Lebanon’s debt is necessary for the country to regain the confidence of its people and of the international community.
On this, the US should push Lebanon to agree on the contested “point 23” with Israel. Tel Aviv is insisting on a previous demarcation point that eats up part of Lebanon’s lawful maritime territory. Washington should consider that this area would be a form of extra assistance for a country that badly needs to lift itself from the abyss. Even if it takes seven years to start extracting gas, the fact there are proven reserves would mean Lebanon could refinance its government bonds and raise capital, allowing it to return people’s savings.
We have to remember that the state of Qatar was dealing with a severe budget deficit in the 1980s. It reached its new wealthy status only in the late 1990s, when liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports started. The massive investments required to build LNG production facilities and transport vessels exceeded the entire Qatari gross domestic product, so would not have been possible without the use of sophisticated financial instruments. In addition to involving Japanese LNG buyers in the construction and financing, the government also used future sales revenues via long-term purchase agreements, as well derivatives instruments such as call options.
Futures, forwards and call and put options are financial instruments whereby parties enter into a contract to buy or sell a certain commodity at a certain price on a certain date. The key is to have a clear estimate of the amount of reserves Lebanon has, in order to know the derivatives that will be most appropriate to use. This can bring immediate funds for the state, either by generating cash from the sale of future gas production or by hedging a debt instrument such as gas-linked financing. The refinancing of the debt could also be linked to the gas — i.e., the owner of a bond will be paid from the money received once the gas is sold. Hence the bonds would have collateral against them. This would regenerate the confidence the country lost when it defaulted on its Eurobond debt last March.
A revival of trust in the system would encourage the flow of investment and help inject liquidity into the system. This would be much better than the suggestion of selling off all the government’s assets and privatizing everything, which would strip the state of all its returns and any role it has in services provision, leaving the average citizen much worse off. Moreover, the government assets and facilities that are dysfunctional due to corruption would have to be sold at a discount, ensuring Lebanon would not get a proper return from the sale.
Gas can save Lebanon from bankruptcy and help revive confidence in the state and the banking sector, but the prerequisite for this is full-fledged reforms, which the current political elite are incapable of conducting.
• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese NGO focused on Track II. She is also an affiliate scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published  on April 11-12/2021

Pope celebrates mass of 'mercy' with prisoners, refugees
NNA/AFP News Agency/April/11 2021
Pope Francis made a rare Sunday outing from Vatican grounds to celebrate a mass on "divine mercy" with prisoners, refugees and health workers. The service was held in a church just off St Peter's Square, in front of a reduced congregation of about 80 people, due to coronavirus restrictions. Among them, there were inmates of two Roman prisons and one youth detention centre; refugees from Syria, Nigeria and Egypt; and nursing staff from a nearby hospital. In his homily, the leader of the world's 1.3 billion Catholics stressed the importance for Christians of serving others. "Sister, brother, do you want proof that God has touched your life? See if you can stoop to bind the wounds of others," he said. "Let us not remain indifferent. Let us not live a one-way faith, a faith that receives but does not give... Having received mercy, let us now become merciful," Francis added. --[AFP News Agency]

Israel Says Will Help Ensure a 'New' Iran Deal Protects Interests
Agence France Presse/April/11 2021
Israel will work with Washington to ensure any "new agreement" on Iran's nuclear program will safeguard regional security, Defense Minister Benny Gantz told his U.S. counterpart Lloyd Austin on Sunday.  The comments came as Austin made the first high-level U.S. trip to Israel since talks resumed on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear accord, which the Jewish state fiercely opposed. Gantz said "we will work closely with our American allies to ensure that any new agreement with Iran will secure the vital interests of the world and the United States, prevent a dangerous arms race in our region and protect the State of Israel".  Austin, the highest-level envoy from President Joe Biden's administration yet to visit ally Israel, said Washington would work with Israel "to advance shared security interest and priorities." Stressing America's "iron-clad" bond with Israel, Austin said the US will "continue close consultations to ensure Israel's qualitative military edge and to strengthen Israel's security." Austin's visit came just days after the U.S. said it had offered "very serious" ideas on reviving the hobbled nuclear agreement reached between Tehran and world powers, which was abandoned by former president Donald Trump in 2018.
'Accident'
Israel under hawkish Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been a fierce critic of the Iran nuclear deal, dating back to when it was being negotiated during Barack Obama's administration. Netanyahu, whom Austin was due to meet on his visit, applauded when Trump withdrew from the deal and imposed sanctions on Tehran, which responded by stepping back from several of its commitments under the deal. In the latest breach of its undertakings in the troubled agreement, Tehran announced on Saturday that it had started up advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges. President Hassan Rouhani inaugurated a cascade of 164 IR-6 centrifuges for producing enriched uranium, as well as two test cascades -- of 30 IR-5 and 30 IR-6S devices respectively -- at Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment plant, in a ceremony broadcast by state television. An "accident" took place at Natanz on Sunday but caused no casualties or damage, the Fars news agency reported, citing officials. In an address marking the eve of Holocaust Remembrance Day, Netanyahu had said on Wednesday that Israel would not be bound to a nuclear deal that would enable the Islamic republic to develop atomic weapons. "An agreement with Iran that would pave the way to nuclear weapons -- weapons that threaten our extinction -- would not compel us in any way," said the veteran premier. Biden has said he is prepared to return to the agreement, arguing the deal had -- until Washington's withdrawal -- been successful in dramatically scaling back Iran's nuclear activities. But Washington has demanded Iran returns to compliance while Tehran has insisted on an end to all U.S. restrictions, with each side demanding that the other make the first move.
 

Gantz to Austin: We will work with US to ensure new Iran deal protects Israel
Reuters/Jerusalem Post/April 11/2021
Austin says the US remains committed to Israel's security and will work with the IDF to ensure its qualitative military edge in the Middle East. The United States remains committed to Israel's security and will work with the IDF to ensure its qualitative military edge in the Middle East, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on Sunday shortly after finishing a meeting with Defense Minister Benny Gantz. Gantz said that he told Austin Israel will work closely with America to ensure that a new nuclear deal with Iran does not threaten the State of Israel. "The Tehran of today poses a strategic threat to international security, to the entire Middle East and to the State of Israel and we will work closely with our American allies to ensure that any new agreement with Iran will secure the vital interests of the world, of the US, prevent a dangerous arms race in our region and protect the State of Israel," Gantz said.
Gantz's comment of working together with the US comes days after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a sharp warning to the United States that any agreement with Iran that allows it a path to develop nuclear weapons will not be binding on the Jewish state. “To our best friends I say – an agreement with Iran which paves its way to nuclear weapons that threaten us with destruction – an agreement like this will not bind us,” Netanyahu said last Wednesday. Austin arrived in Israel on Sunday on the first visit by a senior representative of the Biden administration, whose stance on Iran has worried Israel's government. Austin said he was pleased with the conversations with Gantz. The Biden administration, he said, has a strong commitment to Israel and its security. “Our bilateral relationship with Israel is central to regional stability," he said. Israel views the United States as a "full partner" and will work closely with its ally to ensure any new diplomatic accord with Iran does not compromise regional security, Gantz told his US counterpart. Austin said that the two also discussed continued normalization between Israel and other Arab countries in the Middle East. “This is a relationship built on trust that had developed over decades of cooperation,” he said. "Our commitment to Israel is enduring and ironclad."Austin is due to meet Netanyahu during the two-day visit, which officials said would include discussions of US arms supplies to Israel. Washington has sought to reassure Israel on regional security issues while restarting talks - so far indirect and inconclusive - about a US return to the 2015 nuclear deal between major powers and Iran that the previous Trump administration quit. Israel has long been critical of the deal that it sees as putting a temporary cap on Iranian nuclear capabilities that would pave the way to Tehran producing bombs in the long run. It has said it would not be bound by the diplomacy. Israel and Iran have in recent weeks reported sabotage to their ships at sea. Syria has accused Israel of air strikes on its territory. Israel says it is trying to stem a build-up of Iranian forces within next-door Syria. On Sunday, Iran's Press TV said an electricity problem had caused an incident at the Natanz underground uranium enrichment site, without casualties or pollution. Tehran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. Israel, which lists cyber-sabotage in its arsenal, had no immediate comment on the Natanz incident.

Iran Says Nuclear Facility Hit by Act of 'Terrorism'
Agence France Presse/April/11 2021
Iran's atomic energy organization said Sunday the Natanz nuclear facility was hit by a terrorist act, hours after it said an "accident" had caused a power failure there. Iran stresses the need "for the international community and the International Atomic Energy Agency to confront this anti-nuclear (act of) terrorism," said Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Iran Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO), in a statement carried by state television. IAEO spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi had said earlier there had been "an accident in part of the electrical circuit of the enrichment facility" at the Natanz complex.

What Iran is saying about the Natanz incident

Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/April/11 2021
Iranian media is being forthright about the current incident and downplaying it.
A day after Iran bragged about its latest achievements in nuclear technology, including boasting about advanced centrifuges, Tehran says an “incident” occurred at the electricity network linked to the Natanz enrichment facility. The incident has received front-page coverage in Iranian media. Tehran is both downplaying its potential severity and also revealing it to the world. This messaging could indicate that the Islamic Republic wants to show that everything is under control or to use the incident as leverage. On Saturday, Iranian media reports said President Hassan Rouhani had ordered experts to “begin injecting gas to a new generation of centrifuges at Natanz enrichment facility. Iran also began the mechanical testing of IR-9 centrifuges and launched an assembly line for its new generation of centrifuges. In Natanz, the order was given to feed gas to 164 all-Iranian IR6 centrifuges, with 10 SWU – separative work units that indicate the amount of separation done by an enrichment process.” This has happened over recent months. Last July, the facility was damaged in a mysterious explosion Iran blamed on sabotage. On Saturday, it said such sabotage was unlikely again. Regarding last year’s incident at Natanz, there was a “terrorist act [and] part of the infrastructure of this center was destroyed,” the report on Saturday said. However, a new center for assembling centrifuges has now been completed, it said. “With this measure, in which all the localization power of the country has been used, from now on, the production of new centrifuge machines will be done without any trouble, and there will not be the slightest disturbance in this process,” the report said. On Sunday, the country “announced the occurrence of incidents this morning in a part of the electricity network of Shahid Ahmadi Roshan Natanz enrichment facility,” Behrouz Kamalvandi, a spokesman for Iran’s civilian nuclear program, said during an exclusive interview with Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency.
The incident did not cause any injuries or pollution, Iran said. The cause of the accident is under investigation, and further information would be announced, Kamalvandi said.Iran referred to last July’s incident in its article on the current incident. On Saturday night, Atomic Energy Organization head Ali Akbar Salehi referred to the next-generation centrifuge assembly center that was inaugurated earlier in the day on the 15th national anniversary of nuclear technology. “The enemy blew up our centrifuge assembly hall a few months ago [in July 2020]… but that did not stop [our progress, because another hall is being used under] makeshift conditions,” he said in a televised interview. “Now we are working day and night in the heart of the mountain and near Natanz, and we hope that the desired sections in the heart of the mountain will be ready next year, and we will move these facilities there.”Iran is pushing forward with “gasification of a new generation [of] centrifuge machines that was carried out in Natanz Enrichment Complex. IR-9 centrifuge mechanical tests were started, and [a] new generation centrifuge assembly center was started,” Iranian media reported Sunday.
Iranian media is being forthright about the current incident but is downplaying it.

Israel’s decades-long battle against Iran’s centrifuges at Natanz
Jerusalem Post/April/11 2021
The history of the Jewish State's fight to prevent the Islamic Republic creating nuclear weapons.
2002
An Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, held a press conference and revealed the existence of an underground enrichment plant in Natanz. Built in a heavily fortified bunker, Natanz showed that the Iranians had learned from the mistakes of the Iraqis, whose Osirak reactor was located above ground and was destroyed by Israel in 1981.
The Mossad was suspected of having provided the Iranian opposition group with the information.
2007
Power supplies that were used to regulate voltage current at the Natanz enrichment plant blew up, destroying dozens of centrifuges.
2010
Stuxnet, a virus reportedly created by Israel and the United States, infiltrated Natanz and succeeded in destroying more than 1,000 centrifuges, causing significant delays to Iran’s nuclear program.
The Stuxnet code caused the engines in Iran’s IR-1 centrifuges to increase and decrease their speed. Iran usually ran its motors at 1,007 cycles per second to prevent damage, while Stuxnet seemed to increase the motor speed to 1,064 cycles per second, causing the engines to explode.
2020
An explosion destroyed an advanced centrifuge assembly facility at Natanz in August, setting back advanced centrifuge development by an estimated one to two years.
The explosion was meant to send an unambiguous deterrent message that Iran’s progress toward a nuclear weapon beyond certain redlines would not be tolerated, The Jerusalem Post reported.
March 2021
Iran started enriching uranium at its underground Natanz nuclear facility using the advanced IR-4 centrifuge, the UN International Atomic Energy Agency nuclear watchdog reported.
The development was a further breach of Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with the P5+1 major world powers and reflected its recovery from a blow suffered on July 2, 2020.
April 2021
An “accident” was reported Sunday morning at the Natanz electricity distribution network, Atomic Energy Organization of Iran spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi told Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency.
Based on reports, it seems the so-called accident was caused by a cyberattack, possibly by Israel.
Iran had restarted enrichment at the Natanz facility, the IAEA reported less than a month ago.
Last year, foreign sources blamed Israel for an alleged attack on the facility, which reportedly impacted Iran’s nuclear program significantly.

Iran: 'Accident' at nuclear plant
Arutz Sheva Staff/April/11 2021
Iran’s civilian nuclear program says an “accident” has struck the electrical distribution grid of the country’s Natanz nuclear facility, without elaborating, according to AP. Behrouz Kamalvandi reportedly made the comment Sunday, saying there were no injuries nor pollution caused by the incident.
The incident comes after an explosion in July damaged Natanz’s advanced centrifuge facility. Iran later called the incident sabotage. “This incident was unfortunately an act of sabotage and the security organizations should study the incident thoroughly and they have to speak about it and their investigations will continue,” Kamalvandi said at the time, according to the semiofficial Fars news agency. “As far as we know, they have identified the culprits and know their incentives and methods and actually, they have full knowledge over the issue,” he added. On July 2, Iran reported an "incident" at the Natanz complex, but said it caused no casualties and failed to stop enrichment work at the facility. A member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee later said the blast at Natanz was caused by a "security breach", and a subsequent report said Iran had ruled out drone or missile attacks as the cause of the blast. The explosion at Natanz occurred six days after an explosion near a military complex in Parchin area southeast of Tehran rocked the Iranian capital. Authorities blamed that blast on "leaking gas tanks".

'Mossad behind cyber attack against Iran's Natanz nuclear facility'
Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/April 11/2021
Western intelligence sources claim that Iran's main uranium enrichment plant was hit by Israeli cyber attack, launched by the Mossad. The Mossad was reportedly behind the cyber attack at the Natanz nuclear plant on Sunday which has caused extensive damage to Iran's main uranium enrichment facility. Western sources quoted in Israeli media said that the attack - initially referred to as an "accident" by Iran - was carried out by the Mossad Iran admitted on Sunday evening that the so-called "accident" was the result of a "terrorist" act. The country's nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi said that the international community and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) needed to deal with what he called nuclear terrorism. He added that Iran reserves the right to take action against the perpetrators, TV reported. Earlier in the day, The Jerusalem Post revealed that the incident at Natanz was not an “accident” and that the damage was worse than what Iran had initially presenting to the public. Western sources claimed that the facility was hit by a cyber attack. Natanz has in the past been targeted by Israeli cyber operations, according to foreign reports. In 2010, the Stuxnet virus attacked the facility in a joint operation with the United States, destroying over 1,000 centrifuges. "The IDF's operations in the Middle East are not hidden from the eyes of the enemies," IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi said during a Remembrance Day ceremony on Sunday. "Thanks to complex and sophisticated operations, the past year has been one of the safest years known to the citizens of the State of Israel. We will continue to act with power and discretion."
Iran claimed that there were no injuries or pollution caused by the incident. Malek Shariati Niasar, an Iranian MP and spokesman for a parliamentary energy commission, wrote that the incident is highly suspected as "sabotage," as it occurred on Iran's National Nuclear Technology Day and amid the renewal of talks between the Islamic Republic and Western nations on the JCPOA nuclear deal. Niasar added that the Iranian parliament is following the details of the incident and will announce an opinion on the matter after receiving and summarizing the information. Iran said earlier on Sunday that a problem with the electrical distribution grid of the Natanz site had caused an incident. Iranian MP Ali Haddady placed the blame for the incident on Israel. "Yesterday the assassination of a nuclear scientist and today the attack on the Iranian ship Saviz and the sabotage of the Natanz nuclear facility," tweeted Hadaddy.
The MP called for deterrence, not restraint, saying "when commitment is translated as restraint, the Zionist enemy dares to strike more blows." The attack against Natanz took place a day after the country had begun injecting uranium hexaflouride gas into advanced IR-6 and IR-5 centrifuges at Natanz and was revealed as U Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was visiting Israel. It also came less than a month after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran had restarted enrichment at the Natanz facility and less than a year after Israel was blamed by foreign reports for an alleged attack on the facility, which reportedly impacted Iran's nuclear program significantly.
THE POST recently reported that Iran is still nowhere near having recovered to the point where it had been before that July 2020 explosion in terms of its capacity for assembling new advanced centrifuges. In the alleged attack last year, Iranian reports also originally referred to the explosion as an "incident" without providing further details. "The centrifuge assembly hall was blown up by the enemy a few months ago, but we did not stop and temporarily set up the hall that made up for the lost hall," said AEO head Ali Akbar Salehi on Saturday, according to Fars. Salehi did not specify which "enemy" was behind the attack last year. Salehi added that Iran is working to move sensitive facilities at Natanz further underground, with hopes that new underground halls will be ready next year.
The attack also comes as tensions are rising between Israel and Iran amid a number of attacks on Iranian and Israeli maritime vessels, with recent reports claiming that Israel has hit dozens of Iranian ships in recent years. On Tuesday, a spokesman for the Iranian military blamed Israel and the US for causing an explosion on the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' Saviz vessel in the Red Sea, in a statement to Sputnik news on Thursday. "The United States undoubtedly has a hand in all attempts to undermine and harm Iran," said the spokesman, adding that Tehran was not accusing any of the Gulf states of being involved in the incident. The report also comes as Iran meets with European and American officials to discuss a possible return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the formal name for the nuclear agreement signed in 2015 between the Islamic Republic and world powers.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned multiple times in the past week that Israel would defend itself against Iranian threats, stressing that Jerusalem would work to combat Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
Reuters contributed to this report.

What is going on in Iran? Cyber experts weigh in
Akiva Spiegelman/Arutz Sheva/April/2021
Iran’s Natanz nuclear site suffered an electrical disturbance just hours after starting up new advanced centrifuges used to enrich uranium.
Since this morning, the media has also gone on a frenzy in an attempt to provide its various viewers a complete a picture as possible regarding the power outage in Iran's Natanz nuclear plant. Arutz Sheva has gathered a number of cyber experts to discuss the situation and its potential aftermath.
Eric Barbing, former head of the Shin Bet cyber division: 'The case in Natanz connects to things that are happening in the region right now, and assuming that this is not an administrative incident, it seems at the moment that it is only a message and damage to consciousness. Iran has gone through a difficult year as a country with a strategy of silencing events that harm government or government services. In the present case it is a relatively rare coincidence, probably in one of their strategic places in which the infrastructure is expected to show exceptional strength. When there is such a power outage, even if it is not related to the operational axis and is related to the Iranian nuclear project, we are left with a number of questions. As stated, no abnormal activity has been recorded at the moment, but this is a message. Various cyber tools may be used here.
Berbing then added: 'The person who caused the power outage performs a gentle message transmission. It does not seem coincidental. The very media preoccupation with the subject causes the inter-arena struggle to be used as a deterrent. In cyber bodies will never take responsibility. This is a cold war and yet not such a cold one. If any player, including Israel, wanted them to know they were responsible for the action, they would make their intention clear. This is currently not the case. The damage at the moment, as stated, is on a conscious level alone'.
Dr. Harel Menashri, head of the Cyber Faculty at the Holon Institute of Technology as well as one of the founders of the National Cyber Security Authority: 'It is possible this is a cyber attack. There are a number of countries with capabilities and a desire to carry out such actions. It should be noted that one of the things that delayed the Iranian nuclear program is covert activity that includes activity in cyberspace. About a year ago there was an explosion in the same compound. If the Iranians reported it than it is probably an unusual event.
When asked about the extent of the damage, Dr. Menshari elaborated: 'The damage is substantial and therefore has been published. If there is a malfunction in the power plant electric grid, it may produce damage similar to the one inflicted upon the centrifuge.
How far back does the damage send the Iranians?
'It is clear that the move does not stop but only hinders the progress of the Iranian nuclear program. The nuclear situation is currently several times worse than before the 2016 nuclear deal termination. Once the US withdrew from the agreement the Iranians gained breathing space and began to act in an uncontrolled manner.
What can be done now?
'It is definitely worth making more moves like the one made yesterday and we must embrace the US administration. without them we will not be able to move forward and stop the nuclear development'.
Dr. Yoel Guzansky, senior fellow at the INSS: 'Power outages happen often, and they may or may not be innocent ones. The timing is quite interesting as well. This event occurs on the eve of talks in Vienna regarding the nuclear deal alongside tensions at sea. I feel the timing is not coincidental and is intended to send a message to Iran. Iran has recently made progress in the study of centrifuges, therefore Israel may not be alone in its efforts to contain the regime and keep it in check. Centrifuges can get out of balance as a result of a power outage, I am awaiting the evaluation of the Atomic Energy Commission in order to draw a conclusion.
What could have brought on such an action?
The naval activities carried out by Israel come to warn of the Iranian actions in Syria. I guess there is coordination here between all sorts of countries with overlapping interests. The damaged ship intelligence-wise controlled a strategic area. The injury was a message to its operators that they may have crossed a certain red line'.

What is the extent of the damage?

'It is too early to know and if it was indeed done from the outside, it shows Iran that there are red lines and that crossing them will come at a price. From an intelligence standpoint, this shows how intrusive and vulnerable the most sensitive place in Iran actually is. This is a sharp warning message, and it is not yet clear from whom'.

Defense officials call to probe leak of alleged Israeli op. against Iran
Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/April 11/2021
The revelation of this alleged Israeli involvement was unusual in that generally Israel prefers to keep a low profile if it undertakes such attacks. There were calls over the weekend by Israeli defense officials to probe the leak of an alleged sensitive IDF operation against Iran to foreign media.
Earlier this week, The New York Times reported that Israel notified the US that it was responsible for Tuesday’s attack on an Iranian cargo ship which was a central pillar of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps intelligence apparatus in the region. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed on Wednesday that the Saviz was slightly damaged in the Red Sea off the coast of Djibouti around 6 a.m. on Tuesday due to an explosion, though they had not reached a conclusion about the cause. The revelation of this alleged Israeli involvement was unusual in that generally Israel prefers to keep a low profile if it undertakes such attacks in order to provide the attacked-side, here Iran, an alibi to save face and avoid needing to retaliate.While leaks months after an explosion at a key Iranian nuclear facility in July 2020 eventually seems to have led to Israel, there was an elaborate public relations campaign to point the finger in other directions. In contrast, such a quick almost real-time taking credit increases the prospect of retaliation by the Islamic Republic. Haaretz and others have reported that an individual who leaked the operation’s details asked the reporter to wait with its publication, after the defense establishment had decided to postpone it by one day. The operation was reportedly classified as high-risk for the soldiers involved and was planned as part of a wider strategy by the Defense Ministry to prevent Iran’s further establishment in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East. The fact that such a sensitive operation was leaked raised concerns among Israel’s top security officials, which stressed that publishing any information about the operation beforehand would put lives at risk. Eventually, the operation was successfully carried out a day after its original date. Its details were then published by the media outlet that originally received the leaked information – presumed to be The New York Times. There appear to be two versions of the leak. In one version, an Israeli official updated a counterpart American official with the understanding that the US would keep the information confidential. This was based on understandings followed in recent years as a condition for Israel being more open with the US. In another version, the Israeli leak to the US, or in some other fashion to the media, was illegal, and may need to be investigated. Some sources are pointing fingers at the US, while others are implying rival defense or intelligence officials within Israel.
The Prime Minister’s Office and Defense Minister Benny Gantz had not commented by press time.
 

Has Morocco Carried Out Its First Drone Strike in Western Sahara?
Agence France Presse/April 11/2021
Morocco's reported use of a drone strike to kill a senior Western Sahara independence fighter would, if confirmed, mark a turning point in the decades-long conflict, experts say. The Polisario Front announced on Wednesday that its police chief Addah al-Bendir had been killed "on the field of honor" in a separatist-controlled part of the disputed desert territory. A Polisario official later told AFP that Bendir had been killed by a Moroccan drone after taking part in a military operation near a sand barrier separating Moroccan and Polisario-controlled zones. The location and circumstances of his death are murky, and the North African kingdom has not released any details. But Moroccan and Algerian press outlets have carried reports that a drone was involved. Moroccan military expert Abdelhamid Harifi told AFP that "officially, Morocco doesn't have armed drones -- but it has a whole range of state-of-the-art unarmed drones."The kingdom has been "a regional pioneer in using drones for intelligence and to identify targets", he added. "It's possible that the army used such a drone to pinpoint suspect movement in the buffer zone."
Bendir's death comes after decades of simmering tension between Morocco and the Polisario rose sharply in November after Rabat deployed the army to reopen the kingdom's only highway into West Africa.
The Polisario, which has long demanded a referendum on an independent state, had blocked the highway arguing that it was built in violation of a 1991 truce deal. The Polisario has since announced daily attacks against Morocco, which controls most of the former Spanish colony and has offered autonomy under its own administration, though claims are difficult to independently verify in the hard-to-access area.
'Hard to prove'
Moroccan military expert Mohamed Chiker said the nature of the operation targeting Bendir, a lethal strike beyond the sand barrier, was unprecedented since a 1991 U.N.-backed ceasefire. But he said it was "hard to prove" that a drone had been used. The Sahrawi defense ministry said Bendir had fallen in Tifariti, a part of the Western Sahara under Polisario control, after a "military mission." That statement, released through official news agency SPS, was later removed without explanation. Several media outlets said the Polisario had attacked inside Morocco, in the region of Touizgui near the Algerian border.
That would mean that "Algeria is allowing Polisario soldiers to enter Morocco from Algerian territory", warned the semi-official Moroccan news site Le 360. Moroccan news site Le Desk reported that Bendir had been killed in a "joint mission by an unarmed (French-Israeli) Harfang drone" that located the target, allowing a fighter jet to carry out the strike. The use of a drone "would mean that Morocco is starting targeted strikes like the United States and Israel in retaliation to the Polisario's attempted incursions," it said.
- 'In military control' -
In neighboring Algeria, news site Algerie Patriotique pointed to the use of "killer drones" with "technical assistance" from Israel. The Moroccan press reported late last year that the kingdom had taken delivery of three Harfang drones, as well as ordering Israeli Bluebirds and American MQ-9B SkyGuardians -- which do not appear to have been delivered yet. Washington in December recognized Morocco's sovereignty over the Western Sahara, in exchange for Rabat normalizing ties with Israel. The kingdom's growing capabilities had already raised it from 60th to 53rd place on the Global Firepower Index, ranking military strength. The Polisario, for its part, has "an arsenal that has barely changed since the 1980s, and whose modernization is totally dependent on its Algerian protector," Jeune Afrique reported in November. Whether a drone was used in the killing of Bendir remains an open question for now.
But Chiker said that either way, the killing was a demonstration that Morocco "is in military control of the entire (Western) Sahara, and has an arsenal capable of striking" the Polisario anywhere in the territory.

First joint appearance of King Abdullah and former Crown Prince Hamzah since the crisis
NNA/April 11/2021
Jordan's King Abdullah II and former Crown Prince Hamzah bin Al-Hussein appeared today together in celebrations of the centenary of Jordan's founding, in their first public appearance since the last crisis, according to scenes broadcasted on state television, as reported by France Press. The Royal Court published via "Twitter" a photo of the Jordanian Monarch and his Crown Prince Hussein, as well as Prince Hamzah bin Al-Hussein and a number of princes visiting the royal shrines on the occasion of the country's centenary.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published  on April 11-12/2021

France: Macron Gave Up Fighting Radicalism
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/April 11/2021
There are also teachers who, possibly because they are scared, choose to bow their heads, give up teaching certain subjects and -- when students shout anti-Semitic and anti-Western insults -- to act as if they hear nothing. It has become almost impossible in most French high schools to talk about either Israel or the Holocaust.
Most journalists seem to prefer avoiding all discussion of the advance of radical Islam in France. They know that those who do so are immediately called "racists" or "Islamophobes" and are often threatened, prosecuted, sentenced to heavy fines or fired from their place of work.
Even though what the journalist Éric Zemmour said was accurate and verifiable, the CSA (Superior Audiovisual Council), said that to state certain facts constitutes an "incitement to racial hatred".
In 2015, a French journalist compared the National Rally Party to the Islamic State. [National Rally President] Marine Le Pen responded by posting on Twitter two photographs of crimes committed by the Islamic State and added, "This is Islamic State".... In court, the judge asked Le Pen, "Do you consider that these photos violate human dignity?". Le Pen replied, "It is the crime that violates human dignity, it is not its photographic reproduction".
"Fourteen months before the presidential deadline of 2022, ... the supposition is that ... Marine Le Pen, will necessarily be in the second round of the election and that whoever will face her is no longer guaranteed to win". — Le Monde, March 22, 2021.
Éric Zemmour (pictured), one of the only journalists in France who still speaks freely... is brought into court at least once a year. The fines imposed on him come to 10,000 euros ($11,800) each time. (Photo by Lionel Bonaventure/AFP via Getty Images)
November 1, 2020. Didier Lemaire, a high school teacher who works in Trappes, a small town west of Paris, published an open letter in the left-wing magazine Le Nouvel Observateur. He spoke of the murder of Samuel Paty, another teacher, savagely beheaded two weeks earlier by a Muslim extremist. He denounced the submission of the French authorities to religious intimidation and the impossibility of the French school system being able to transmit any real knowledge of history or to give students the intellectual means to think freely. He said that in just a few years, the situation in the city where he worked has deteriorated markedly. Lemaire wrote:
"The year I arrived in the high school where I teach, the city's synagogue had just been burned down and Jewish families forced to leave. After the 2015 and 2016 attacks in France, I got involved in preventive actions.... In 2018, seeing that my efforts collided with forces much more powerful than me, I wrote to the President of the Republic to ask him to act urgently to protect our students from the ideological and social pressure exerted on them, a pressure which gradually withdraws them from the national community. Unfortunately, no action was taken....
"There are currently 400 radicalized people with a S file [dangerous to the security of the state] who roam freely in Trappes.... Thousands of ideologues are at work... fostering a feeling of victimhood [in order] to incite hatred. These ideologues are by no means 'separatists': they do not simply want to remove people from the national community, they want to destroy the Republic, democracy and the school system.... Their strategy is to avoid a frontal war, and to multiply acts of terror to exhaust the enemy.... They neutralize danger awareness by using the bad conscience of "progressives", and by speaking of 'racism', 'injustice' or 'police violence'.... They want to reduce women to slavery. They infiltrate schools, universities, the local and national political sphere, by spreading everywhere...the injunction to 'accept the difference of the other'. They paralyze the will to respond to killings other than with flowers, candles and words...
"We are at the beginning of a war of terror that will amplify because a large part of our fellow citizens prefer not to see that it is our heritage that is threatened. If they were willing to see what is happening, they would have to fight with courage. Samuel Paty had this courage. No doubt, because he cherished our heritage. But he was not protected by the institutions, which underestimated the threat, just as our political representatives and the majority of our citizens do."
Although the letter received no reaction from the French authorities, Lemaire, right after its publication, received death threats. He was also aggressively questioned by people on the street who told him that he would suffer the same fate as Paty. While the Ministry of the Interior placed him under police protection, he was harshly criticized by the administrative division: they accused him of creating unrest. "He is irresponsible," they said. "He throws oil on the fire". The other teachers at the high school where he taught accused him of attracting attention, thereby endangering them. The city's mayor, Ali Rabeh, a member of a far-left party, Génération.s, accused him of sullying the city, and filed a defamation suit against him. Lemaire chose to resign.
Many teachers in France face the same situation. Even though some dare to talk about it, they ask, when speaking to journalists, to remain anonymous. They are doubtless scared -- a mindset that beheadings are presumably meant to create. There are also teachers who, possibly because they are scared, choose to bow their heads, give up teaching certain subjects and -- when students shout anti-Semitic and anti-Western insults -- to act as if they hear nothing. It has become almost impossible in most French high schools to talk about either Israel or the Holocaust.
Most journalists seem to prefer avoiding all discussion of the advance of radical Islam in France. They know that those who do so are immediately called "racists" or "Islamophobes" and are often threatened, prosecuted, sentenced to heavy fines or fired from their place of work.
Political leaders, both left and right, perhaps out of a willful blindness or a concern for votes, avoid the subject as well.
Éric Zemmour, one of the only journalists who still speaks freely about the problem, is brought into court at least once a year. The fines imposed on him come to 10,000 euros ($11,800) each time. Despite multiple calls to fire him, the television channel CNews admirably continues to give him a daily platform. A few weeks ago, the CSA (Superior Audiovisual Council), the institution in charge of the regulation and supervision of audiovisual media in France, fined CNews 200,000 euros ($238,000). When, for instance, a man initially named as Ali H., 18, and enjoying the status of "unaccompanied child refugee" -- who turned out to be 25, and named Zaheer Hassan Mehmood -- attacked two people with a cleaver in front the former offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, Zemmour said:
"Every year, France welcomes on its soil without control thousands of people from the Muslim world supposed to be isolated minor refugees who are neither minors nor isolated, and who often commit robberies and murders".
Even though what Zemmour related was accurate and verifiable, the CSA said that to state certain facts constitutes "incitement to racial hatred".
Only one political party dares to speak clearly of the dangers arising from the Islamization of France and radical Islam: National Rally. Its president, Marine Le Pen, is also often summoned by judges and condemned. In 2015, a French journalist compared National Rally to the Islamic State. Le Pen responded by posting on Twitter two photographs of crimes committed by the Islamic State and added, "This is Islamic State". On February 10, 2021, Le Pen had to appear before a tribunal to respond to a complaint lodged against her by the French Ministry of Justice for "dissemination of violent messages seriously undermining human dignity, likely to be seen by a minor". In court, the judge asked Le Pen in an accusatory tone, "Do you consider that these photos violate human dignity?" Le Pen replied, "It is the crime that violates human dignity, it is not its photographic reproduction".
France is the main Muslim country in Europe (officially, 8.8% of its population is Muslim). Islam is the second religion in France, but come in first if one counts the number of active practitioners. Churches are most often empty and the number of congregants is dwindling (since 2000, 45 churches in France have been razed to the ground). Mosques, however, are full and more numerous. The number of Muslims who want to practice Islam is so large that in several cities, every Friday afternoon Muslims pray in the streets and block traffic during prayer time, while the police dare not intervene.
France is also a country where more than 150 mosques spread across the country host imams who deliver extremely radical sermons and call for action against the West. The number of young Muslims under 25 who place Islamic law above French law continues to grow and has now reached 74%. During the last decade, Islamists who have committed deadly attacks in France were mostly Muslims born in France. This was true of Mohammed Merah, who murdered soldiers as well as Jewish children in Toulouse in 2012; Said and Cherif Kouachi, who murdered twelve people at the magazine Charlie Hebdo in 2015; Amedy Coulibaly, who murdered people at a supermarket in Saint Mande, a few days after the attack on Charlie Hebdo, and Samy Amimour, one of the three terrorists who murdered 90 people in November 2015 in the Bataclan Theater. That makes radical Islam and Islamic terrorism a French problem.
A large majority, 61%, of the French population are aware that a serious and growing problem faces French society, and consider Islam to be incompatible with French values.
Zemmour's daily televised program, despite the fines, has been breaking all audience records for more than a year. When the magazine Valeurs Actuelles published a poll conducted to see how many people would vote for Zemmour if he decided to be a candidate in the next French presidential election, he was projected to receive 17% of the vote.
Polls indicate that Le Pen, who is officially a candidate, would receive more than 26% of the votes and be in first place after the first round of the 2022 presidential election -- ahead of France's current President Emmanuel Macron. In the second round, Macron was projected to win, but by a small margin. Among the French President's entourage, concerns are growing. In 2017, Macron used fear of "fascism" to push the French not to vote for Le Pen, but various surveys show that this strategy may no longer work.
Before the coronavirus pandemic, many in France had rejected Macron. He had made contemptuous remarks regarding the underprivileged. He had violently crushed the uprising of the "yellow vests". A long public transport strike had blocked the country just before the French government decreed a strict lockdown, completely paralyzing the country's economy for several weeks. For months, a curfew, from 7pm to 6 am, was imposed on the entire French population. More than a year after the start of the pandemic, a strict lockdown was decreed again. Since March 17, 2020, more than a year ago, any gathering of more than six people has been banned. Cafes, restaurants and most shops remain completely shut. The economic consequences have been catastrophic: in 2020, France's economy contracted by more than 8%, one of the worst in Europe.
The public's frustration with Macron remains high: 60% of the French say they are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with how he is managing the country.
For months, Macron has sought a way out. He can see that Le Pen's success stems from the firm positions she has taken in the face of Islamic danger. He decided to act. Having spoken several times about the creation of an "Islam of France", last year, he announced that he would target what he called "Islamist separatism". He seemed to mean that more and more French Muslims respect only Islamic laws and live in neighborhoods that non-Muslims have abandoned, therefore now areas subject to Islamic rules. On October 2, 2020, he said that a law would soon be passed to remedy the problem.
Macron and the French government were quickly confronted by various leaders in the Muslim world who boycotted French products. Anti-France rallies were organized in Turkey, and effigies of Macron were burned. France's minister of foreign affairs, Jean-Yves Le Drian, was immediately dispatched to Egypt to meet with the grand imam of al-Azhar University, Ahmed al-Tayyeb, and in November said publicly that "France has a deep respect for Islam".
Those drafting the new law were asked to be extremely careful. In December 2020, a first draft of the text was presented to the French parliament. French Muslim organizations and anti-racist movements declared the text "Islamophobic". Since then, the law has been almost entirely rewritten and emptied of substance.
The expression "Islamic separatism", which seemed ambiguous anyhow, disappeared from the text. All mention of Islam and "Islamism" disappeared, as well. Many Islamists, as documented by the sociologist Bernard Rougier in his recent book, Les territoires conquis de l'islamisme ("The Territories Conquered by Islamism") -- and those with whom he spoke, who were open about their goals -- seemed not to want to "separate", but rather to take over more territory and regulate more of the non-Muslim population.
The word "secularism" (laïcité), which originally appeared in the proposed law, has also been withdrawn. Instead, the new version reads, a "law confirming the principles of the Republic". In other words, the new law affirms principles already affirmed in existing laws: government services must be religiously neutral, and polygamy and forced marriages in France are prohibited. The new law promises sanctions against hate speech on social media, although a law passed six months ago already promised that. The new law also bans home schooling -- practiced by few Muslims, but by many Christians.
As soon as the law was passed, Zemmour stated that Macron had given up fighting radical Islam, and that the law was "designed not to upset or threaten anyone, not to identify the adversary and not to say that Islam poses a problem because it is both a religion and a legal and political project". The law, Zemmour added in Le Figaro, does not "face reality".
"This," Le Pen remarked, "is a totally ineffective law which undermines the freedom of all parents to choose the education provided to their children, and which shows that the government is incapable of attacking those who fight the French Republic".
Along with the presentation of the law, Frédérique Vidal, the French Secretary of Higher Education, asked for an inquiry on the "Islamo-leftism" in French universities. Her remarks drew fierce criticism and led to a petition signed by six hundred university professors accusing her of using "extreme right vocabulary" and "defaming an entire profession". Macron supported the petition and affirmed his "absolute attachment to the independence of professors and researchers". Vidal protested that she simply wanted to do a "review of all the research taking place in the country". The debate over the support that multiple leftist organizations are giving to radical Islam -- and the growing presence of this support within French universities -- ended before it began.
After the beheading of Paty, only one moque was closed: the Great Mosque of Pantin, in the northern suburbs of Paris. Its shutdown lasted just three months. In addition, one radical Islamic association was dissolved: Baraka City. There are, however, many other radical Islamic associations in France and they remain untouched. The main Muslim organization in France continues to be "Muslims of France" (formerly the Union of Islamic Organizations of France), which is the French branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Muslims of France operates the only school in France that trains imams: the "European Institute of Human Sciences", in Saint Leger-de-Fougeret, a small village in Burgundy.
In Strasbourg, a Turkish organization, Millî Görüş ("National Outlook") -- an organization close to Turkey's ruling AKP Party and to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan -- is building what will be the largest mosque in Europe. The Strasbourg city council has granted 2.5 million euros ($2.94 million dollars) toward the work (the total cost will amount to 32 million euros, $37.6 million). In January 2021, the French Council of Muslim Worship (CFCM), an institution created in 1989 to represent the French Muslims, asked the nine organizations of which it is that made up, to sign a "charter of the Islam of France". The charter would say that "no religious conviction can be invoked to shirk civic obligations". Four organizations, including Millî Görüş, refused to sign it. The Union of Islamic Organizations of France had left the French Council of Muslim Worship several years ago and therefore did not sign the charter, either.
Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said that the construction of the mosque in Strasbourg constituted "foreign interference" in France and that although he was opposed to the decision of the city of Strasbourg to finance it, he had no legal means to prevent decision or the construction. He did not criticize Millî Görüş. On January 26, 2021, he more firmly announced banning an association -- Génération Identitaire ("Generation Identity") -- that is fighting by peaceful means the advance of radical Islam in France. Darmann claimed that the association was "undermining the republic."
A year ago, Bruno Retailleau, a member of the French Senate, had already warned that the rapidly growing number of Islamists within a rapidly growing Muslim population means that France is "losing the fight against Islamism. Soon," he cautioned, "it will be too late".
The columnist Ivan Rioufol wrote:
"The fault of Generation Identity, denouncing, through non-violent actions, the rise of Islamism in France as well as uncontrolled immigration... The criminalization of dissenting thought is a something that should not have its place in an advanced democracy. Rare are those who protest against the wall of silence which prohibits calmly discussing issues related to Islam and immigration. By deciding to ban Generation Identity, Darmanin wants to silence dissonant voices by accusing them of racism. The weapon is all the more intellectually dishonest that the minister of the interior says that political Islam is a real danger."
On March 22, the newspaper Le Monde published an editorial saying that the question of Islam will likely be at the center of the 2022 presidential election, and that Le Pen has a good chance of winning:
"Fourteen months before the presidential deadline of 2022, ... the supposition is that ... Marine Le Pen, will necessarily be in the second round of the election and that whoever will face her is no longer guaranteed to win".
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27 books on France and Europe.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

What Makes Erdogan Tick?
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/April 11/2021
At the end of the year, there was a Turkey in deep stages of cold-to-colder-war with the EU (in particular, with EU members Greece, Cyprus and France), Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, General Khalifa Haftar of Libya and the United States (over the S-400 dispute).
Not one of these state actors stepped back and appeased Erdoğan or changed policy in the face of Turkish hostilities.
In December, the Trump administration announced that the U.S. would sanction Turkey for its purchase of the Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile system....
All that must have made Erdoğan tick. Apparently cornered, Erdoğan launched a new charm offensive in November. He said Turkey's future was in Europe -- quite a radical departure from his usual histrionics that Europe is Islamophobic, fascist, racist and Europeans are "remnants of Nazis."
Erdoğan's tough guy manners have finally been decrypted by state and non-state actors in the former Ottoman lands.
"Erdoğan will not back down until you show him teeth. That's what we did when we negotiated the [Syrian] ceasefire in October of 2019. We were ready to crush the economy." — James Jeffrey, former U.S. special envoy for Syria (and former ambassador to Ankara), Al-Monitor.
In October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan drew his sword against French President Emanuel Macron, targeting, in fact, the entire European civilization as against radical Islam. "What is Macron's problem with Islam?," Erdoğan said. "What is his problem with Muslims? Macron needs some sort of mental treatment." Pictured: Macron (right) and Erdogan at a press conference on January 5, 2018 in Paris, France.
A comparative analysis of where Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's aggressive war-mongering and assertive foreign policy -- based on an imaginary Superpower Turkey -- stood a year ago, and today's relative Turkish composure at all problematic fronts should give us invaluable lessons on dealing with the wannabe sultan. The events during the past year offer precious experimental confrontations that reveal an answer to a question that concerns a rich menu of nations: What makes Erdoğan tick?
Erdoğan has threatened Europe several times with "sending millions of refugees your way." On February 27, 2020, the Turkish government finally pressed the button to execute the threat: Millions of (mostly Syrian) migrants on Turkish soil were now free to travel to Europe; Turkish border gates were now open. Tens of thousands of these migrants (not only Syrians) were given free bus rides from Istanbul to Turkey's land borders with Bulgaria and Greece, about 150 miles west of the Istanbul. In a declaration that looked more like propaganda talk than reality, Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu chimed in on March 1, 2020 that, in a span of three days, 100,000 refugees had already crossed the borders into Europe.
By the next day, Greece was not only operating 52 Navy ships to guard its islands close to Turkey; it had also mobilized additional troops on land. Its security forces were able to block 10,000 migrants from entering Greece by way of the Turkish land border. Some migrants were stuck in the no-man's-land between the two countries and eventually had to return to the Turkish side. Greek officials reported only 76 illegal entries, whom they detained and prosecuted.
At the end of March, Turkish authorities had to withdraw the remaining migrants who were amassed at the border. The blackmail that had long kept the EU hostage had finally failed. Erdoğan has not resorted to that blackmail ever since. But Greece had not disappeared from his hostile radar.
On July 9, Erdoğan signed a decree for the conversion into a mosque of the monumental, 6th century Hagia Sophia cathedral -- on UNESCO's World Heritage List -- a move his Islamist fans praised as the "second conquest of Istanbul." Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, founder of modern Turkey, had designated Hagia Sophia as a museum in 1934. Erdoğan's was the first step of a plan to escalate tensions with traditional Aegean rival Greece.
The entire summer of 2020 saw a perpetual cycle of escalation, de-escalation and escalation again in the Aegean and Mediterranean seas. Turkey suspended and resumed, several times, its provocative hydrocarbon exploration activity in disputed maritime zones. While the standoff was deepening, Turkish and Greek militaries switched to operational readiness, a step before firing at each other.
In one dangerous incident on August 14, two warships, the Greek Navy's Limnos frigate and Turkey's TCG Kemalreis, collided in the Eastern Mediterranean. The tensions bolstered a century-long Turkish nostalgia to take back some of the Greek islands, with Islamist media suggesting that the Turkish military should invade 16 Greek islands. Turkey and Greece had not come this close to fighting their fifth war in history since 1996, when their armies challenged each other over sovereignty rights on a small Aegean islet.
Meanwhile, starting from June 2020, Turkey became more and more heavily engaged in the Libyan civil war, sending troops, trainers, equipment and proxy Syrian fighters to the hot war theater, challenging a consortium of rival nations, including Russia, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Ankara threatened that its role in the Libyan war may evolve from proxy to actual warring party.
In October, Erdoğan drew his sword against French President Emanuel Macron, targeting, in fact, the entire European civilization as against radical Islam. "What is Macron's problem with Islam?," Erdoğan said. "What is his problem with Muslims? Macron needs some sort of mental treatment." Because the French president vowed to crack down on radical Islamism in France, after the country was shaken by the beheading of French history teacher Samuel Paty on October 16, Erdoğan apparently thought that Macron had gone clinically insane. Erdoğan also accused the West, in the military conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, of supplying arms to one of the warring parties only, Armenia. Nevertheless, a bit hypocritically, as happens, Erdoğan was also proud that Turkey had been equipping the Azeri military with drones, various other weapons systems and training.
The summer of 2020 also saw increasing Turkish condemnation of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE due to hostile ideological differences. Erdoğan's ideological love affair with the Muslim Brotherhood had sparked mutual hostilities between Ankara and Arab capitals, with Egypt and Saudi Arabia finally deciding to boycott Turkish products. The UAE's diplomatic normalization with Israel also sparked even more self-defeating anger in Ankara, which has had diplomatic relations with Israel since 1949. Ever since a Turkish flotilla, led by the Mavi Marmara, was caught by Israelis in 2010 trying to break the legal maritime blockade of the Gaza Strip, however, the relationship between the two countries has been particularly awful. In addition, Erdoğan seems to believe that Israel's capital, Jerusalem, should actually belong to Turkey, as it belonged to the Ottoman Empire more than 100 years ago.
At the end of the year, there was a Turkey in deep stages of cold-to-colder-war with the EU (in particular, with EU members Greece, Cyprus and France), Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, General Khalifa Haftar of Libya and the United States (over the S-400 dispute).
Not one of these state actors stepped back and appeased Erdoğan or changed policy in the face of Turkish hostilities. Arab states escalated when necessary, or humiliatingly ignored Turkish provocations. Israel augmented its hydrocarbon alliance with the Mediterranean nations and the EU. And Greece proportionately responded when Turkey escalated; it toned down when Turkey de-escalated.
At a summit in December, the EU leaders agreed to impose sanctions on an unspecified number of Turkish officials and entities involved in gas drilling in Cypriot-claimed waters -- but they deferred the bigger decisions such as trade tariffs until they would consult with the upcoming U.S. administration. EU member states will discuss tougher sanctions at their summit at the end of March.
Also in December, the Trump administration announced that the U.S. would sanction Turkey for its purchase of the Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile system -- despite delays that so frustrated Congress that lawmakers made the sanctions mandatory. This decision made Turkey the only country in the world that was sanctioned by all of Russia, the EU and U.S. within a span of five years.
All that must have made Erdoğan tick. Apparently cornered, Erdoğan launched a new charm offensive in November. He said Turkey's future was in Europe -- quite a radical departure from his usual histrionics that Europe is Islamophobic, fascist, racist and Europeans are "remnants of Nazis."
In December, Mesut Caşin, foreign policy adviser to Erdoğan, told Voice of America:
"If Israel comes one step, Turkey maybe can come two steps ... If we see a green light, Turkey will open the embassy again and return our ambassador. Maybe in March, we can restore full diplomatic relations again. Why not ... Establishing peace and security is very important to Israel and Turkey."
On March 12, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his government is in contact with several countries, including Turkey, about natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. A few days earlier, on March 9, Israel's Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said that Jerusalem was ready to cooperate with Turkey on natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean.
In January, Turkey and Greece resumed their exploratory (peace) talks after a five-year pause. In March, they will hold a new round of negotiations.
On March 3, acknowledging Cairo's respect of Ankara's maritime borders, Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu focused on the "shared interests between the two countries" and signalled Turkey's readiness to negotiate and sign a maritime jurisdiction agreement with Egypt. On March 12, Çavuşoğlu announced high-level intelligence and diplomatic talks with Egypt. The bilateral talks are the first since the 2013 ousting of the Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, a Muslim Brotherhood member and staunch ally of Erdoğan.
As a major gesture to Cairo, Turkish authorities have asked three Istanbul-based Egyptian opposition TV channels to soften their critical political coverage of Egypt's government. According to The Associated Press, Ayman Nour, an exiled Egyptian opposition figure and head of the Muslim Brotherhood-linked al-Sharq television station, confirmed in televised comments that Turkish officials demanded that the channels tone down their rhetoric. He said they were not ordered to shut down or to stop airing programs. "A dialogue has started between us and Turks in the framework of changing the rhetoric (of these channels),"Nour said.
An editor at al-Sharq told The Associated Press that Turkish officials made the request during a meeting in Istanbul on March 18 with managers from al-Sharq and two other channels, Mekamleen and Watan. The officials told the broadcast managers they could continue to make programs about Egypt but not against the Egyptian government, citing Turkey's negotiations with Egypt, according to the editor.
Erdoğan's tough guy manners have finally been decrypted by state and non-state actors in the former Ottoman lands. His hate-filled, assertive, irredentist policies are no longer a deterrent -- even at a time when tougher U.S. sanctions that may further squeeze Erdoğan's position have not yet hurt.
In an interview with Al-Monitor in December, former U.S. special envoy for Syria (and former ambassador to Ankara) James Jeffrey explained what makes Erdoğan tick:
"Erdoğan will not back down until you show him teeth. That's what we did when we negotiated the [Syrian] ceasefire in October of 2019. We were ready to crush the economy."
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Iran: Between Illusion and Reality
Amir Taheri/Asharq al-Awsat/April 11/2021
As for voter turnout, we now know that the regime has set the stage for an "historic event". Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Gen. Hussein Salami says the "Supreme Guide" has ordered "an epoch-making turnout" that his force will help assemble.
[I]t is clear that the "Supreme Guide" will not tolerate the slightest deviation from the course he has set: a revolution that he claims is moving from strength to strength. "Today we are stronger and America is weaker," he said recently. One of his ideological gurus, Dr. Hassan Abbasi, aka "Dr. Kissinger of Islam", goes further: "America is the sunset power," he says. "We are the sunrise power!"
[The coming election] could end the illusion that the Khomeinist regime might change course and seize opportunity offered to it to re-join the global mainstream.... The four-decade pursuit of "behavior change in Tehran" would have to be reviewed.
Khamenei speaks of a "conspiracy" to force Iran to become a "normal nation" like everyone else and vows to never allow that to happen.
The Khomeinist system isn't a Middle Eastern version of the people-based Scandinavian Social Democracy.... It is a despotism of the medieval kind with a pseudo-modern varnish borrowed from misunderstood Marxism.
The replacement of illusion with reality, no matter how bitter, may be good news after all.
Iran's upcoming presidential election could end the illusion that the Khomeinist regime might change course and seize the opportunity offered to it to re-join the global mainstream. (Image source: iStock)
The old script is out of the files and dusted, the décor shined and up, and the puppet-master testing the strings and flexing his fingers. But something is still missing: new puppets to make the show attractive to those who have seen the same old puppets once too often.
Got it? We are talking of the presidential election in the Islamic Republic in Iran, scheduled for June but so far attracting little attention. In previous versions of the show, interest in it started up to two years before polling day as rival factions within the regime mobilized to reach for the prize or at least make an impression. On at least two occasions the rigmarole produced one pleasantly surprising result and one unexpectedly horrible one. On a third occasion, it triggered a nationwide uprising that pushed the Khomeinist regime to the edge of collapse.
Those of us who had long conceded that this simulacrum of an election was an insult to human intelligence, nonetheless maintained an interest in it for at least two reasons.
First it provided an instant snapshot of the balance of power within the Khomeinist camp. Then the election also provided a rough indication of the regime's ability in producing a credible turnout of voters. To these I would add a third reason, often rejected by many Iranian observers: the possibility, no matter how remote, of correcting the nation's tragic trajectory even if only slightly.
This time round, however, none of the above reasons seems to be relevant.
The balance of power has solidified in favor of those who have reduced four decades of revolutionary experience and its ideological cocktail of misunderstood Shiism and misguided communism to a banal Stalinist cult of personality built around Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the self-styled "Supreme Guide". It is no accident that Ayatollah Khatami, one of the mullahs most in vogue within the system, insists that every vote in June will be a vote for the "Supreme Guide" and the regime as a whole.
Gone are the days when Muhammad-Javad Zarif, presenting himself as Foreign Minister of Iran, would make no mention of the Islamic Republic or of Islam itself, and entertain the Council on Foreign Relations grandees with his tale of a "moderate" pro-US faction competing with a radical anti-American one for power in Tehran.
As for voter turnout, we now know that the regime has set the stage for an "historic event". Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Gen. Hussein Salami says the "Supreme Guide" has ordered "an epoch-making turnout" that his force will help assemble.
As for the third reason, it is clear that the "Supreme Guide" will not tolerate the slightest deviation from the course he has set: a revolution that he claims is moving from strength to strength. "Today we are stronger and America is weaker," he said recently. One of his ideological gurus, Dr. Hassan Abbasi, aka "Dr. Kissinger of Islam", goes further: "America is the sunset power," he says. "We are the sunrise power!"
Last year there was some speculation regarding Khamenei's decision to allow one of the younger generals of the IRGC to assume the presidency, thus pushing turbaned heads, except that of his own, into the background. Surprisingly, however, none of the IRGC's heavy-lifters has come forward.
A former Defense Minister has thrown his cap in the ring with few people noticing. His chief claim to revolutionary competence is that he was one of the "students" who took American diplomats hostage 41 years ago. He has been joined by a younger brigadier-general whose chief claim to fame is the building of railways that go nowhere and bridges that collapse before inauguration. A third IRGC apparatchik has also jumped in: he is a former head of the state-owned radio and TV network with a perhaps unique record: under his leadership the state-owned networks lost 70 percent of their audiences.
Not prepared to swallow the absurdity of the situation, regime apologists are praying that other more serious candidates might emerge. The current Speaker of the Islamic Majlis, the ersatz parliament, Muhammad-Baer Qalibaf, is one of those mentioned. His star rose when Khamenei chose him to deliver a "secret letter" to Russian President Vladimir Putin. His star declined when Putin refused to see him and turned him back at the gates of the Kremlin under snow. (He delivered the letter later to the Russian Duma's Speaker.)
Another putative candidate is former Speaker Ali Larijani. His star rose when Khamenei put him in charge of negotiations with China for a "strategic partnership". The so-called deal turned out to be a mouth-watering wish list of the kind Lili Gantry presented to her lovers. The exercise exposed Zari and President Hassan Rouhani as extras in a comedia del arte number but revived Larijani's half dead presidential ambitions.
Regardless of who else might join this show it is clear that the Khomeinist camp has no solution for Iran's growing and complex problems. It also lacks a charismatic figure capable of enthusing at least the regime's bedrock of support.
Having said all that, the coming election may still be of interest for another reason. It could end the illusion that the Khomeinist regime might change course and seize the opportunity offered to it to re-join the global mainstream.
That would leave the outside world, including Iran's neighbors, to decide either to tolerate its warts or to actively work for regime change in Tehran. The four-decade pursuit of "behavior change in Tehran" would have to be reviewed.
The shedding of illusions might also persuade Iranians, including segments of the regime's support base, to decide whether or not the status quo is their best option. Zarif implies that it took him almost 40 years to realize that "we chose to live differently" from everyone else in the world.
Behzad Nabavi, an elder statesman of the "moderate" faction sees "living differently" even more starkly than Zarif. "I prefer to be poor but proud," he says. "If the choice is between freedom and independence, I shall always choose the latter."
Khamenei speaks of a "conspiracy" to force Iran to become a "normal nation" like everyone else and vows to never allow that to happen.
Iran may be heading for an end to pretense: The Khomeinist system isn't a Middle Eastern version of the people-based Scandinavian Social Democracy as Noam Chomsky thinks. It is a despotism of the medieval kind with a pseudo-modern varnish borrowed from misunderstood Marxism.
The replacement of illusion with reality, no matter how bitter, may be good news after all.
*Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications, published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since 1987.
 

Why Iran-Israel tensions are on the rise again
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/April 12/ 2021
Both the Biden administration and the Iranian regime seem to be hoping to revive the 2015 nuclear deal before Iran’s presidential election in June. This period of renegotiation will probably raise tensions between Iran and Israel to a new high.
Following the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Israel became one of the regime’s main enemies. Tehran and Tel Aviv have targeted each other indirectly for decades, such as through asymmetrical warfare and cyberattacks, often declining to openly claim responsibility.
The theocratic establishment has mainly used proxies such as Hezbollah to attack Israel. Tel Aviv, on the other hand, has caused substantial damage to the Iranian nuclear program through various methods, including the deployment of Stuxnet — a computer worm — and the targeting of Iran’s nuclear scientists.
Tensions peaked when Barack Obama took office as US president. Before that, one of the major underlying problems that every US administration had with Iran was its hostility toward Israel, Washington’s staunch ally in the Middle East. As a result, Israel felt that the US always had its back when it came to the Iranian regime.
But the Obama White House broke with tradition and was willing to turn a blind eye to Iran’s stance toward Israel. It helped lift all UN and some US sanctions against Tehran by forging the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This agreement gave Iran global legitimacy, strengthened the regime economically, as billions of dollars flowed into its treasury, and empowered Iran’s militia and terror groups.
Toward the end of the Obama administration’s second term, Tehran also ensured the survival of Syrian President Bashar Assad, increased its influence in Syria and began establishing military bases there, posing a significant threat to Israel’s national security.
The Israeli leaders learned a hard lesson from the Obama administration. Feeling abandoned by its ally, Tel Aviv realized there was no guarantee that every US president would view Iran through the prism of its stance toward Israel, or take Israel’s concerns into account when dealing with Tehran.
Abandoned by its American ally again, Israel is feeling very different this time
This lesson significantly affected Israel’s policy on Iran after the Trump administration took office and showed full support for Tel Aviv by imposing sanctions and the maximum pressure policy on Tehran, and pulling the US out of the nuclear deal.
Israel had to seize this opportunity by targeting Iran and weakening the regime because it could not know whether the next US administration would be soft on the ruling clerics. As a result, Israel began directly attacking Iran’s military bases in Syria and Iraq. Last November, for example, the Israeli Air Force conducted airstrikes against eight targets in Syria controlled by the Quds Force. In July 2019, Israel launched cruise missiles toward Iranian and Syrian military positions near Damascus and in Homs. The Israel military struck dozens of other Iranian targets in Syria the same year, and carried out airstrikes in northern Baghdad.
A prevailing narrative within Iran’s political establishment is that, in the final weeks of the Trump administration’s term, Israel was trying to drag Tehran into a war and that the regime must not fall into this trap. A headline in state-controlled newspaper Arman-e Melli last November read: “Trap of tension: Assassination of another nuclear scientist.” The newspaper explained that Iran must be cautious and patient ahead of Trump’s departure from the White House and should neutralize tensions with Israel and the US.
Ultimately, four years of the Trump administration ended and the Iranian regime survived. Obama’s Vice President Joe Biden took office in January and his administration has stated it is prepared to lift sanctions against Iran in order to return to the nuclear deal.
Abandoned by its ally again, Israel is feeling different this time because it believes Iran is pursuing clandestine nuclear activities and is close to acquiring nuclear weapons. The JCPOA will not prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons; instead it will empower the regime. This reasoning has ensured Iran-Israel tensions have reached a new and dangerous level, with Israel last week hitting an Iranian command ship in the Red Sea.
Tensions between Israel and Iran will continue to escalate throughout the renegotiation of the nuclear deal and will have to be contained by the Biden administration.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Tangled web of the new nuclear deal talks
Maria Maalouf/Arab News/April 12/ 2021
The first round of nuclear deal negotiations between the US and Iran, which ended on Friday, were described as positive. However, the recriminations in Washington are commencing, as charges are being levied against the Biden administration for giving Tehran political credibility, while others are defending it as a historic meeting. But each side in the debate lacks the accuracy of all the political facts about what is going on between the two nations. Each side will try to furnish a reliable tradition of foreign policy to rebut the claims of the other. No one can yet have the vindication that their position is right.
There have been severe Republican attacks on the wisdom of enabling Iran to be a nuclear power. Israel also sees a nuclear Iran as politically inconceivable. The whole political atmosphere is confusing. In addition, the Biden administration is sending conflicting signals on Iran, oscillating between readiness to sign a deal and hesitating to agree to Iran’s demands, especially on quickly lifting the sanctions imposed on it.
But it is obvious that President Joe Biden and his top national security advisers have adopted pragmatic viewpoints that recognize the reality of change: That Iran has developed a solid nuclear power infrastructure that no country or group of countries can do away with.
In addition, the Republicans have been drawn into a confusing line of thinking, since there is a dichotomy between their renunciation of the decision to talk to Iran over its nuclear efforts and their inability to thwart that new diplomatic orientation by the Biden administration. Rep. Steve Scalise warned that negotiating with Tehran could force the US to make concessions to the Iranians, such as offering them large amounts of money that the regime could use to finance terrorism. Furthermore, Sen. Tom Cotton pointed out how special interests in America, such as oil companies, are pushing for a deal with Iran in order to reinvest there.Adding to the Republicans’ protests is their concern that all previous efforts to contain Iran will become meaningless. They will never reconcile with what the Biden administration is saying about its relations with Tehran. They will always doubt what Biden says on this subject. However, the Republicans in Congress are currently unable to pass any legislation that could stop the government from negotiating with Iran over a possible new nuclear deal.
Adding to the Republicans’ protests is their concern that all previous efforts to contain Iran will become meaningless.
More confusion is found in Israel’s position. Chief of the general staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, has indicated a new Israeli strategy that includes a contingency plan based on a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear power stations. This would rely less on prior consultation or coordination with the US. Nevertheless, top government officials in Israel have denied the feasibility of such a plan, emphasizing their ongoing collaboration with the US regarding Iran’s nuclear prospects.
All these policy postures by the different sides of the debate are mutually exclusive. Israel is seemingly worried because it fears the US administration is not going to be loyal to an old ally. It is vexed by Biden’s approach toward Tehran because he is abandoning the “maximum pressure” strategy that was followed by the previous administration.
If the negotiations offer working solutions, how could the US government then assure the Israelis, and its other allies, that it will stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon? How could Israel request help from Washington in stopping Iran threatening it if the US is the country that ultimately helped Tehran achieve nuclear capability? These are some of the questions being posed both in Washington and Tel Aviv.
Israel and the Republicans may be forced to protest that Biden is silent on many of their demands regarding his negotiations with Iran. It is clear there will be different interpretations of everything that goes on between Iran and the US. Even if a deal is signed, the Republicans and Israel will advocate its rejection. The sharp divisions on Iran will be maintained in the heart of America.
• Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher, and writer. She holds an MA in political sociology from the University of Lyon. Twitter: @bilarakib

US secretary of defense aims to deescalate Israel-Iran tensions
Daoud Kuttab/Aarab News/April 12/2021
AMMAN: Middle East experts believe that the visit of the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to Israel is largely aimed at deescalating Israeli-Iranian tensions, and facilitating Washington’s eventual rejoining of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly referred to as the Iran nuclear deal.
Austin said the US is committed to “Israeli military edge” and advancing “strategic partnership” efforts with Tel Aviv.
Lamis Andoni, a veteran analyst based in Amman, told Arab News that the visit is ultimately aimed at helping the US return to the JCPOA. “President Joe Biden is worried that (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu would like to escalate the situation in the Gulf, with the aim of torpedoing the eventual return to the Iran nuclear deal,” she said.
Andoni added that Netanyahu was only concerned about his own future, and would therefore focus on exaggerating Iranian threats to ensure Gulf states remained united against Iran.
Ali Jarbawi, a professor at Bir Zeit University, told Arab News that Austin’s visit was nothing more than an attempt to placate Israel.
“They want Israel to be reassured on the fact that the new administration will be returning to the Iran nuclear deal,” he said.
Retired Jordanian air force general, Maamoun Abu Nawwar, said that the goal of the visit is to ensure that Israeli does not escalate the situation in the Gulf. “The fact that the first senior official from the Biden administration to visit Israel is a military man is a clear sign that they are hoping he will address the potential of a dangerous escalation … between Israel and Iran,” he told Arab News.
Ofer Zalzberg, Middle East Program director at the Herbert Kelman Institute for Conflict Transformation, said that the visit will be characterized by an internal contradiction in US objectives: “It aims at reassuring Israel by bolstering US-Israeli and Gulf-Israeli defense relations while dispelling Iranian perceptions of US complicity in recent Israeli attacks on Iranian targets, which harm establishing the trust required for successful nuclear negotiations,” he said.
Musa Shteiwi, former head of the University of Jordan’s Center of Strategic Studies, said that the visit would seek to resolve the Iran issue at a time that Israel is going in the opposite direction. “They will talk about pursuing the partnership issue in order to facilitate the return to the Iran deal,” he said. Barak Ravid, a Tel Aviv-based reporter for Axios, argued that both Austin’s position and the timing of the visit were important.
“This is the first trip of a senior Biden administration official to Israel. Austin will try to make sure that there is a no surprises policy between Israel and the US when it comes to Iran, and will try to reassure the Israelis about the nuclear talks with Iran. The Biden administration wants to make sure tensions in the region will not escalate in a way that sabotages the nuclear talks,” he said.
Regardless of the worries about military escalation, it is clear to observers that the real issue is the political one. Abu Nawwar believes that the Iran nuclear deal, initially signed by the administration of former President Barack Obama, will eventually prevail. “It is the only game in town,” he added.