English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 11/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today

Although the doors were shut, Jesus came and stood among them and said, ‘Peace be with you.’Then he said to Thomas, ‘Put your finger here and see my hands. Reach out your hand and put it in my side. Do not doubt but believe
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 20/26-31: “A week later his disciples were again in the house, and Thomas was with them. Although the doors were shut, Jesus came and stood among them and said, ‘Peace be with you.’Then he said to Thomas, ‘Put your finger here and see my hands. Reach out your hand and put it in my side. Do not doubt but believe.’Thomas answered him, ‘My Lord and my God!’Jesus said to him, ‘Have you believed because you have seen me? Blessed are those who have not seen and yet have come to believe.’Now Jesus did many other signs in the presence of his disciples, which are not written in this book. But these are written so that you may come to believe that Jesus is the Messiah, the Son of God, and that through believing you may have life in his name.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 10-11/2021

Elias Bejjani/Visit My LCCC Web site/All That you need to know on Lebanese unfolding news and events in Arabic and English/http://eliasbejjaninews.com/

Ministry of Health: 2,705 new Corona cases, 38 deaths
Lebanon is dying and the political class looks away;
Future Movement: Experience of authentic, non-authentic PM will not be repeated
Hariri Denies Claim He Postponed Diab’s Trip to Iraq
Diab’s Trip to Iraq Postponed due to ‘Iraqi Internal Reasons’
Central Bank Provides Updated Data for Forensic Audit
German Firms Unveil Lavish Post-blast Beirut Port Plan
Army Arrests Suspects, Confiscates Drugs, Weapons and Smuggled Goods
Salameh Warns that Foreign Banks Cutting Ties with Lebanon
FPM: Prime Minister-designate seeks to delay the government formation
Conclusion of virtual training course for field journalists at the Ministry of Information, Lebanon TV and Media Outlets
Jumblatt sends condolences cable to British Queen
“No contradiction between forensic audit, cabinet formation - both are a priority,” asserts Kanaan
Camille Dory Chamoun elected as NLP Chief
PSP: Solution begins with immediate subsidy rationalization, consumer market control
Aswad: Silence & bias of a people signal the downfall of a nation
“Insurance Control Commission ready to withdraw, redraft its letter sent to judicial investigator,” says Nehme
Army: Two raids in al-Jamaliah, Kfar Zabad, drugs, weapons and smuggled goods seized

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published  on April 10-11/2021
Positive Atmosphere, Little Progress in Iran Nuclear Talks
Iran further breaches nuclear deal as talks with the US near 'impasse’
Iran boasts of '133 nuclear achievements' after Vienna talks
UN atomic watchdog reports new Iranian breach of nuclear deal
Pentagon Chief Visits Israel amid Iran Talks
Saudi Arabia Says it Executes Three Soldiers for 'High Treason'
Countries Worldwide Hit New Records for Virus Cases, Deaths
Irish PM Warns of 'Spiral' as Unrest Simmers in N.Ireland
World Leaders Pay Tribute to Prince Philip
US eyes tactical withdrawal from Middle East to focus on China
Normalisation between Egypt and Turkey hindered by issues of mercenaries, Brotherhood
Saied’s visit to Egypt underlines common views on Libya, Nile
 

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published  on April 10-11/2021

Can We Win in the 'Gray Zone'?/Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/April 10, 2021
Dirty Erdogan, the Sexist Profanity of the Ottoman Sultan and its Derivatives/Charles Elias Chartouni/April 10/2021
Keep the lights on for Arab cultural capitals/Haitham El-Zobaidi/The Arab Weekly/April 10/2021

At the dictators’ table, Erdogan is part of the furniture/Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/April 11/ 2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published  on April 10-11/2021

Ministry of Health: 2,705 new Corona cases, 38 deaths
NNA/Saturday 10 April/2021
The Ministry of Public Health announced, on Saturday, the registration of 2,705 new Corona infections, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 494,633.
It also indicated that 38 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.
 

Lebanon is dying and the political class looks away;
Marianne Issa El-Khoury/Lebanese DNA//Saturday 10 April/2021
Lebanon is dying and the political class looks away;
Lebanon is dying and the political class persists in its blindness ;
Lebanon is dying and the autism of the political class allows it to ignore the pain of a proud people, to ignore the calvary of widows and the moans of orphans ;
Lebanon is dying and the political class strives to change his Identity ;
Lebanon is dying and the organic alliance between corruption and organized crime remains the watchword ;
Lebanon is dying and the political class is infiltrating the breach that the different groups leave open because of their scattering ;
•It becomes imperative to unite and agree on essential points to free a people taken hostage by a political class who should be judged for high treason.
Let us all raise a united, clear and courageous voice and call for :
• An international supervision; That an eight to twelve month transitional government be formed, made up of a small team of seasoned, independent and courageous technocrats, whose mission will be :
1. To claim the positive neutrality of Lebanon ;
2. The application of Security Council resolutions taken under Chapter VII, so that UNIFIL proceed with the disarmament of Hezbollah and that it be deployed throughout Lebanese territory, to protect the borders ;
3. That it draft a new electoral law that is fairer and more representative, allowing electronic voting for residents and expatriates and to conduct elections under the aegis of the United Nations ;
4. Establish a comprehensive plan to restore state finances and recover sums looted from the state and the Lebanese people.

Future Movement: Experience of authentic, non-authentic PM will not be repeated
NNA/Saturday 10 April/2021
Future Movement issued a statement this afternoon in response to the statement by the Free Patriotic Movement’s political council, in which it considered that “the FPM leadership appears to suffer from confusion and political denial in their worst stages, presenting one evidence after another of acting as a ruling party that seizes the signature of the Republic Presidency regarding the formation of the government.” “Among the new signs of denial of the Movement’s leadership is its claiming that Prime Minister-designate, Saad Hariri, is responsible for the failure of the recent French effort, in contrast to all the statements, reports and positions issued by Paris and Beirut in this regard,” underlined the Future Movement’s statement. It also referred to FPM’s claims that the PM-designate is working to obtain a “half plus one” power within the government, deeming this pretext as a repeated attempt to escape forward to justify its adherence to the third veto power. “Perhaps it is useful for the Movement and everyone concerned, to know that the PM-designate is the head of the government collectively, and he will not be the head of half, a third, or a quarter of the cabinet,” the Future statement emphasized, stressing that those who claim that he is asking for a “half plus one” actually wish to have two heads of government, “a PM assigned by the Parliament to form the government, and a PM assigned by the Free Patriotic Movement to disrupt the government's work." "In short, this matter will not pass, and the experience of the authentic and non-authentic prime minister will not be repeated," the statement concluded.

Hariri Denies Claim He Postponed Diab’s Trip to Iraq
Naharnet/Saturday 10 April/2021
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri’s press office on Saturday described as “fabricated” a report published in al-Akhbar daily claiming that the PM was behind the posopnemnet of caretaker PM Hassan Diab’s trip to Iraq.
Hariri’s press office said in a statement: “Al-Akhbar newspaper published in its issue today a front-page story titled "Hariri Cancels Diab's visit to Iraq."
“The media office of Prime Minister Hariri confirms the news as 100% fabricated ؜and has no connection with the truth. It constitutes a deliberate abuse of the prime ministries of Iraq and Lebanon,” it said. Caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab was scheduled to pay Iraq a trip on April 17,18 to sign a preliminary agreement to obtain 500 thousand tons of fuel oil in exchange for health and medical services.

Diab’s Trip to Iraq Postponed due to ‘Iraqi Internal Reasons’
Naharnet/Saturday 10 April/2021
The Presidency of the Council of Ministers announced late on Friday that the visit of caretaker PM Hassan Diab to Iraq was postponed at the request of Baghdad. It added that Diab’s visit was scheduled to take place on April 17, and that it was postponed for “internal reasons having to do with Iraq.”
According to media reports, Diab’s trip was aimed at signing a preliminary agreement to obtain 500 thousand tons of fuel oil in exchange for health and medical services. "The Protocol Directorate of the Iraqi Presidency of the Council of Ministers on Friday informed the Lebanese PCM Protocol Department of the request to postpone the date for internal Iraqi reasons," said a statement released by the Diab's office.

Central Bank Provides Updated Data for Forensic Audit
Naharnet/Saturday 10 April/2021
Lebanon has provided an auditing firm with "updated" information for a stalled forensic audit of the central bank demanded by the international community, the finance ministry said Friday. The International Monetary Fund and France are among creditors demanding an audit of Banque du Liban as part of urgent reforms to unlock financial support, as the country faces its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. The finance ministry said the central bank had sent it "the updated list of information requested by the forensic auditing firm Alvarez and Marsal and the ministry has sent it on to the firm". It did not specify whether all the requested data had been provided. New York-based Alvarez and Marsal in November pulled out from the audit after the central bank claimed that provisions including Lebanon's banking secrecy law prevented it from releasing some of the necessary information. Outgoing finance minister Ghazi Wazni has said less than half the required data was provided. Lebanon's parliament in December approved a bill that suspends banking secrecy laws for one year to allow for the forensic audit.

German Firms Unveil Lavish Post-blast Beirut Port Plan
Agence France Presse/Saturday 10 April/2021
A German delegation on Friday unveiled a spectacular multi-billion-dollar project to rebuild Beirut port and its surroundings but admitted it was contingent on far-reaching government reforms. Swathes of the port and adjacent neighborhoods were destroyed when fire ignited poorly stored ammonium nitrate on August 4, causing one of the world's largest ever non-nuclear explosions and killing more than 200 people. The ambitious German project was met with skepticism by some observers who argued Lebanon's leaders were showing no sign of providing the most basic conditions for foreign investment. The plan put forward by two German firms envisions moving most port activity away from the city center and re-urbanizing the most damaged areas. Speaking at a press conference in Beirut, Colliers Germany managing director Hermann Schnell listed "affordable housing for families, green space and good infrastructure" among other features. The project envisions beaches and a "central park" alongside restored architectural heritage, all wrapped in a plan that would generate 50,000 jobs and billions in profit. The German pitch saw an "opportunity for a new city", mapped out in a presentation that featured what it said were successful examples of redeveloped ports in cities like Cape Town, Bilbao and Vienna. Lars Greiner of Hamburg Port Consulting (HPC) said the concept would "develop the port precinct of Beirut into a world class, state-of-the-art port" that would be more automated, cost-efficient and ready for regional trade growth.
Transparency
The private initiative is the first large-scale, comprehensive plan after last year's blast and has the support of Germany, whose ambassador attended the press conference. Other international players are also working on alternative or complementary proposals. French shipping giant CMA CGM, which leads container operations in Lebanon, submitted its own master plan in September. "Such a huge project... can only be built if there is accountability and transparency," German ambassador Andreas Kindl said at the news conference.
The project envisions the creation of a trust overseen by independent international appointees to manage funding from the European Investment Bank and other investors. "I don't see these proposals... becoming reality anytime soon," economist and anti-government activist Jad Chaaban told AFP. "Who today is prepared to invest one penny in a country whose collapse is in full swing, which has no government and defaulted on its debt?" The German team admitted the corruption that has defined Lebanese politics for decades was an obstacle. "What's on the table is incredible... The only thing that you really need to do is make sure that there is transparency, that's it," HPC managing director Suheil Mahayni told AFP. "We don't dream, we have a clear vision... But if some pre-conditions are not fulfilled and don't allow full transparency, it's not going to work," he said.

Army Arrests Suspects, Confiscates Drugs, Weapons and Smuggled Goods
Naharnet/Saturday 10 April/2021
The Lebanese Armed Forces announced on Saturday the arrest of several suspects in Baalbek and Central Bekaa saying the suspects possessed drugs, weapons and smuggled goods. In Baalbek’s town of al-Jamalieh, the army seized a factory for manufacturing drugs, it said in a tweet. In the Central Bekaa town of Kfarzabad, the military detained several suspects for possessing drugs and ammunition, in addition to large amounts of smuggled goods, added the Army in a second tweet.

Salameh Warns that Foreign Banks Cutting Ties with Lebanon
Naharnet/Saturday 10 April/2021
Lebanon’s money transfers abroad, its purchases of goods, and access to foreign exchange are all at risk to stop after correspondent banks abroad began to cut their financial relations with the Central Bank of Lebanon, al-Akhbar daily reported on Friday. In a memorandum addressed on March 31 by the Central Bank governor Riad Salameh to the Public Prosecutor, Judge Ghassan Oweidat, Salameh warned that the Central Bank “is in a difficult situation,” revealed the daily. In the memorandum, Salameh referred to “negative shock” of relations between BDL on one part and the international correspondent banks on the other, after starting to curtail their business relationships with the local financial system. He said it will place Lebanon in a “difficult situation regarding foreign transfers and the purchase of basic commodities, as well as obtaining foreign currencies to operate various economic facilities.”Prominent sources described Salameh’s message as “dangerous” because of the information it contains and the fear of its negative impact on the Lebanese political, monetary and economic situation. It mentions the lenders and correspondent banks that closed the BDL's accounts with them, namely: Wells Fargo had closed a central bank account in dollars, and Britains’ HSBC had shut its British sterling account, the Danish "Danske" closed the account in Swedish krona, leaving the Central Bank of Lebanon without an external correspondent in this currency, the Canadian "CIBS", returned the BDL deposits it employed and stopped all dealings with it. Salameh warned that the measures could expand in the future, attributing the reasons to: Lebanon’s default on Eurobonds, political campaigns against BDL, the judicial uproar and its exploitation inside and outside Lebanon, which “sowed doubts among our correspondents and the major banks with which we deal.”He added and “warned” that the Central Bank has become "in a difficult situation. We only have “one bank, JP Morgan that accepts letters of credit we issue to import fuels and others for the benefit of EDL, the Ministry of Energy and some public sector departments, in return for funds deposited at the bank equal to the value of the credit .”He added that the bank “refuses to date to approve a credit in favor of the German company "Combi Lift" to lift containers from Beirut port that contain dangerous chemicals.”

FPM: Prime Minister-designate seeks to delay the government formation
NNA/Saturday 10 April/2021
The Free Patriotic Movement’s political body considered, in a statement issued after its periodic electronic meeting chaired today by its Chief, MP Gebran Bassil, that "there is no longer any doubt that the Prime Minister-designate is seeking to delay the government formation,” noting that his thwarting of the recent French effort falls in this context, adding that “the serious test of the approaching formation date lies in his presentation of an integrated, understandable and unambiguous government line-up to the President of the Republic, which will reveal his true intentions of seeking to have half of the government’s members plus one."The statement deemed the President's position regarding the forensic audit of the Central Bank’s accounts as “a clear roadmap to accelerate the implementation of the audit path, in light of the failure to deliver the required documents despite the removal of all obstacles,” noting that “what the Finance Ministry received yesterday is nothing but the approval of the Central Council over the index of required documents without committing to specific dates for submitting the documents themselves.”“In light of this procrastination, which aims to disrupt and stop the forensic audit, the Free Patriotic Movement calls on all citizens not to remain silent, to be alert, to struggle and to join it in pressuring towards achieving this,” the statement corroborated. Meanwhile, the Movement’s political council "regretted" the words of Lebanese Forces Party Head, Samir Geagea, who prejudiced the President of the Republic by stating that there was a parliamentary and ministerial majority on his side for five years, saying: “He [Geagea] must know mathematically and politically that a third of the ministers do not constitute the majority of the cabinet, i.e. half plus one, and that 20% of the number of deputies does not constitute the majority of the parliament, especially with the presence of obstructers like him.”The FPM political body continued to question the Parliament Council about "the delay in passing the law controlling financial transfers abroad, known as Capital Control, which was supposed to be approved the day after October 17, 2019, whereby a year and a half has passed without its approval, while the funds of the Lebanese continue to go out without consideration, depleting what remains of their reserves and money.""FPM stands with everything that secures the rights of Lebanon and its land and sea borders completely, without missing any opportunity to establish this, which is what the Movement did in all stations and directions, provided that this is done within the constitutional principles and within the framework of international law and internal understanding, in order not to be the subject of a new division amongst the Lebanese,” the Movement’s political body statement concluded.

Conclusion of virtual training course for field journalists at the Ministry of Information, Lebanon TV and Media Outlets
NNA/Saturday 10 April/2021
The Ministry of Information and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) concluded the virtual training course for field journalists at the Ministry of Information, Lebanon TV and private media outlets, which was held between April 6 & 9, 2021.
Lecturers during the training sessions touched on the humane treatment that should be available to all detained journalists that preserves their dignity in all circumstances, in addition to the places of detention that should be far from combat zones, and their protection from all acts of violence, intimidation, insults and public curiosity. The above measures should also include war correspondents, as per the lecturers, who explained that “the war correspondent is protected by virtue of Chapter Four of the Third Geneva Convention, as they travel under the protection of the armed forces and with their authorization, and they are covered by the protection of international humanitarian law as civilians; but if they are detained, they enjoy the status of a prisoner of war." Talks during the sessions also referred to members of the military press, in being considered as members of the armed forces and military objectives during armed conflicts, indicating that they enjoy the protection of international humanitarian law granted to combatants, and that military press members should be released after the end of hostilities.The training sessions included an interaction and exchange of views between various participants and lecturers, where the participants' different questions were answered.
The training course was divided into 4 sessions, each session lasting two hours, addressing the following topics:
- International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement
- International Humanitarian Law
- Rules governing the use of force
- Safety of journalists and the laws that protect them
It is to note that the participants will soon obtain a certificate of participation signed by the Ministry of Information and the International Committee of the Red Cross, provided that they have attended all the sessions.

Jumblatt sends condolences cable to British Queen
NNA /Saturday 10 April/2021
Progressive Socialist Party Chief, Walid Jumblatt, addressed today a cable of condolences to the Queen of Britain, Elizabeth II, on the passing of her husband, Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh. In his cable, Jumblatt said: “The death of His Royal Highness Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, was truly a cause of profound grief for England and the world. Prince Philip was best known for his support of the monarchy, and for enthusiastically embracing issues related to climate, science and technology. The world will remember him for his patriotism, which he demonstrated throughout his life as the Queen's husband who served for the longest period in any era of the British monarchy…In these difficult moments for Your Majesty and the British people, I would like to offer your Majesty the deepest sympathy and sincerest condolences…May his soul rest in peace."

“No contradiction between forensic audit, cabinet formation - both are a priority,” asserts Kanaan
NNA/Saturday 10 April/2021
Head of the Finance and Budget Parliamentary Committee, MP Ibrahim Kanaan, considered that "it is not necessary to put the government file aside, and to portray that there is a contradiction between the continuation of the forensic audit path and the formation of the government,” stressing that “both are a priority.”Speaking in an interview with LBCI Channel earlier today, Kanaan called for “an understanding over the project of the next government, starting with reforms,” adding that “the government must be formed and the issue of lack of trust between its components must be addressed, since having barricades inside the government is more harmful than the failure to form the cabinet and strikes the last hope of the Lebanese.”“We want the logic of the state to prevail, not the logic of a ruling authority,” he underlined. “There is a lack of trust between the Free Patriotic Movement and the Future Movement that impedes the cabinet formation, and restoring this confidence is not based on sharing influence, but rather on projects, visions and foundations on which the country's future will be built in the financial, reform and political files, independent of personal relations,” the MP asserted. "The country cannot rise without forensic audit and financial reform, which is what the French initiative has stipulated and what must be agreed upon in depth, on the basis of the task required of the next government," emphasized Kanaan. He explained that the subsidy policies across the years, the stabilization of the exchange rate, the absence of reform and budgets, coupled with waste expenditure, corruption and smuggling, have led to the country’s current financial status. He added that the successive governments have a responsibility in this regards, as well as the Central Bank of Lebanon and the various banks, by failing to assess the credits that were approved and not acknowledging the mistakes committed. Kanaan stated that he would question the government "about who benefited from the state's failure to pay the Eurobond's dues in March 2020 and the financial and economic consequences it entailed,” adding that he would call for “conducting an investigation into this file to reveal the facts and determine the responsibilities.”

Camille Dory Chamoun elected as NLP Chief
NNA/Saturday 10 April/2021
Camille Dori Chamoun won the “National Liberal Party” elections today at the Party’s Central House in Sodeco, with Robert Khoury winning as Vice President and Pierre Jaara appointed as Secretary General.
Also, a new political council was elected today following the elections.

PSP: Solution begins with immediate subsidy rationalization, consumer market control
NNA/Saturday 10 April/2021
In an issued statement by the Progressive Socialist Party on Saturday, it considered that crises are almost racing over the shoulders of citizens to the extent that they are losing their elements of steadfastness, amidst the fatal mismanagement that controls the policies of those concerned with the people's livelihood, and the official abandonment of the humanitarian, national and legal responsibility of those who are in decision-making positions in the government, specifically in the relevant ministries. “What is happening in the bread loaf dossier and the issue of confused pricing and the failure to distribute bread by bakeries, coupled with the lack of fuel to distributors and citizens alike, and the queues lining-up in front of bakeries and gas stations, is a matter that can no longer go on in silence because of the deliberate intent to humiliate people,” the statement said. The Party denounced such a prevailing situation when solutions are actually available, “first by approving the immediate rationalization of subsidies without delay, and organizing effective control over the entire consumer market, regardless of its human and logistical resources costs, as there is no importance that outweighs the citizen's livelihood,” it asserted. The statement added that this essential step ought to be accompanied by an immediate implementation of the supply card project, while the Lebanese await the clouds of obstruction and procrastination to be dissolved in the government formation dossier, which constitutes the actual prelude for a reform path that would stop the country’s further decline and collapse. The PSP Party concluded its statement by urging the Ministry of Economy and all other relevant ministries to assume their responsibilities in protecting the people’s livelihood and sustenance, regardless of the cost; otherwise, there will be a total explosion.

Aswad: Silence & bias of a people signal the downfall of a nation
NNA/Saturday 10 April/2021
“The extent of conspiracy and the level of treachery when the politician denies the need for audit, budget, accountability, and prosecution and believes that his position is wise, patriotic and constitutional, and when a politician sells his country's wealth, borders, oil, and sovereignty while claiming his love to liberate and defend it...! As for the people’s silence, their bias and justification for such stances, that only indicates the fall of a nation and the disintegration of a people,” regretted MP Ziad Aswad via Twitter today.

“Insurance Control Commission ready to withdraw, redraft its letter sent to judicial investigator,” says Nehme
NNA/Saturday 10 April/2021
Caretaker Economy and Trade Minister, Raoul Nehme, indicated in a statement today, that “the Minister of Economy is responsible for the commission that monitors insurance bodies, and is constantly urging insurance companies to compensate those affected by the Beirut Port explosion, to protect their rights…However, these companies cannot be obliged to compensate without the issuance of an official report stating the reasons behind the blast, because most insurance and reinsurance contracts exclude acts of war and terrorism from the scope of coverage."
He added that in light of the above, the “Insurance Control Commission” has addressed a letter to the judicial investigator into the Beirut port explosion, to highlight the importance of clarifying as soon as possible the causes that led to the blast, hoping that in the event that the investigations reach a conclusion, it would be announced in order for the commission to take the necessary measures. “The letter does not aim in any way to interfere with the work of the judiciary, and the commission is fully prepared to withdraw and rewrite it, given its misinterpretation in a way that is not in line with its intended goal,” Nehme’s statement concluded.

Army: Two raids in al-Jamaliah, Kfar Zabad, drugs, weapons and smuggled goods seized
NNA/Saturday 10 April/2021
"Army raids in al-Jamaliah-Baalbek resulted in seizing a factory for manufacturing drugs," tweeted the Lebanese Army Command on Saturday. In a second tweet, it also indicated that "raid operations in Kfar Zabad, Central Bekaa, led to arresting several people and seizing a quantity of weapons and ammunition, in addition to smuggled goods."

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published  on April 10-11/2021

Positive Atmosphere, Little Progress in Iran Nuclear Talks
Associated Press/April 10/2021
Nascent talks aimed at bringing the United States back into the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran broke Friday without any immediate signs of progress on the thorny issues dividing Washington and Tehran, but with delegates talking of a constructive atmosphere and resolving to continue the discussions.
Two working groups that have been meeting in Vienna since Tuesday to brainstorm ways to secure the lifting of American sanctions and Iran's return to compliance with the deal reported their initial progress to a joint commission of diplomats from the world powers that remain in the deal — France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia. Russian delegate Mikhail Ulyanov tweeted that participants had "noted with satisfaction the initial progress made.""The commission will reconvene next week in order to maintain the positive momentum," he said. The talks took place without the United States, which unilaterally left the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in 2018, under then-President Donald Trump. He embarked on a campaign of "maximum pressure" by restoring previous sanctions and adding new ones on Iran. But an American delegation headed by the Biden administration's special envoy for Iran, Rob Malley, also has been in the Austrian capital this week. Representatives from the other world powers have been shuttling between the U.S. and the Iranians to facilitate indirect talks.
A senior State Department official said the overall atmosphere was "businesslike" and encouraging, but cautioned that the U.S. is waiting for Iran to show it is serious about responding to the sanctions relief the Biden administration might offer. The official was not authorized to discuss the negotiations by name and spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity. The official said that in exchange for Iran's return to full compliance, the U.S. is prepared to lift all of the Trump-era sanctions that are "inconsistent" with the deal as well as sanctions that are "inconsistent with the benefits" that Iran expected to get from it.
The official said that some non-nuclear sanctions, such as those related to terrorism, human rights and ballistic missiles, would remain in place. If Iran holds to a position that every single sanction imposed on it since the U.S. withdrew from the deal must be lifted, the official said "we're heading to an impasse." However, the official also left open the possibility that some non-nuclear sanctions could be lifted or eased because of the manner in which the Trump administration imposed them, including by using alternate authorities not covered by the deal.
The official said the previous administration had pursued the withdrawal from the deal with the "purposeful and self-avowed intent to make it difficult for any future administration" to return to it.
After the U.S. withdrawal, Iran has been openly violating the deal's restrictions, steadily increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium, increasing the purity it is enriching, and installing and operating new, more efficient centrifuges, among other things. President Joe Biden, who was vice president under Barack Obama when the original deal was negotiated, has said he wants to bring the U.S. back into the deal but that Iran must reverse its violations.
Iran argues that Washington's departure from the deal was the first violation and that the U.S. must make the first move and remove sanctions before Iran returns to compliance. As the talks opened, China's representative in Vienna, Wang Qun, backed the Iranian stance. "We, in China, have a saying to the effect that the one who ties the knot should be the one to undo it," he said. Complicating matters further, Tehran argues that the U.S. needs to drop all sanctions, including measures not related to the deal and Iran's nuclear program. Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Kazem Gharibabadi, showed no sign of backing off that position in comments posted Friday on the website of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. All sanctions imposed by Trump's administration, including "sanctions imposed under non-nuclear pretexts ... must be lifted completely," he said. Still, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iran's Press TV on Friday that the talks in Vienna had not been fruitless.
"In my opinion, these negotiations are moving forward, very constructive and useful, but it is too early to say whether we are moving forward in a positive direction," he said. "The atmosphere of the meetings are constructive, but we are still far from the point where we can hope for a positive trend, although we are not disappointed." Enrique Mora, the European Union official who chaired the talks, said he would continue to shuttle between the U.S. and Iranian delegations, as well as others next week. "The participants emphasized their resolve to further pursue the ongoing joint diplomatic effort," he said in a statement.
The deal's ultimate goal is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb, something it insists it does not want to do. Iran now has enough enriched uranium to make a bomb, but nowhere near the amount it had before the nuclear deal was signed. In pulling the U.S. out, Trump said the deal was a bad one and needed to be renegotiated to include other issues, like Iran's ballistic missile program and regional influence. Those concerns are shared by other members of the agreement but they have maintained these issues should be addressed outside the nuclear deal. They are not part of the current talks.
America's departure from the deal under Trump has also raised Iranian concerns that even if sanctions are dropped and Iran returns to compliance, the U.S. could pivot again under a future president.
Gharibabadi said Iran raised that issue in the Vienna talks. Meanwhile, issues looming in the near future may make negotiations even more complicated.
In late February, Iran began restricting international inspections of its nuclear facilities, but under a last-minute deal worked out during a trip to Tehran by Rafael Grossi, the head of the Vienna-based U.N. atomic watchdog, some access was preserved. Under that agreement, Iran will no longer share surveillance footage of its nuclear facilities with the IAEA but has promised to preserve the tapes for three months. It will then hand them over to the IAEA if it is granted sanctions relief. Otherwise, Iran has vowed to erase the recordings, narrowing the window for a diplomatic breakthrough.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in March also urged the U.S. to act quickly, noting that as his country's June presidential election approaches, Washington will find itself dealing with a government unable to make progress in the nuclear talks.

Iran further breaches nuclear deal as talks with the US near 'impasse’
Reuters/April 10/2021
US official doubts Iran’s seriousness about return to JCPOA.
Iran launched advanced uranium enrichment machines on Saturday, a day after US and Iranian officials clashed over what sanctions the US should lift to return to the 2015 nuclear deal.
Iran has demanded that all US sanctions since the 2017 be removed.
The talks in Vienna, in which European Union officials are shuttling between the remaining parties to the deal and the United States, aim to restore the bargain at the core of the agreement - restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of US and other international sanctions.
"All Trump sanctions were anti-JCPOA & must be removed—w/o distinction between arbitrary designations," Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said on Twitter, referring to the deal by its full name, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
The US left the JCPOA under former president Donald Trump in 2018; Iran began flouting the deal’s nuclear limitations soon after, having kept its program intact as it had been before the deal, and had ramped up its aggression throughout the Middle East in the years after the JCPOA was reached. The United States says it is prepared to lift "sanctions that are inconsistent with the JCPOA." While it has declined to elaborate, that appears to exclude sanctions formally unrelated to nuclear issues covered by the deal, such as human rights. A senior US State Department official told reporters the United States had seen some signs of Iranian seriousness about returning to the nuclear pact but "certainly not enough."
"If Iran sticks to the position that every sanction that has been imposed since 2017 has to be lifted or there will be no deal, then we are heading towards an impasse," the senior US official told reporters on a conference call.
Whether the statements are opening gambits or more firm positions remains to be seen. European officials said Iran was bargaining hard at the outset.
The remaining parties to the accord - Iran, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia - met again on Friday after talks formally began on Tuesday and they agreed to keep going, Russian and Chinese envoys said.
"The #JCPOA participants took stock of the work done by experts over the last three days and noted with satisfaction the initial progress made," Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's envoy to the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said on Twitter after the meeting formally known as the Joint Commission.
"The Commission will reconvene next week in order to maintain the positive momentum."
The remaining parties have formed two expert-level working groups whose job is to draw up lists of sanctions that the United States will lift and of nuclear restrictions Iran will implement. Their work continues between Joint Commission meetings.
"All parties have narrowed down their differences and we do see the momentum for gradually evolving consensus," Wang Qun, China's ambassador to the IAEA, told reporters.
On Saturday, Iranian state TV aired a live broadcast of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani ordering the new breach of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s National Nuclear Technology Day, involving the injection of uranium gas into 164 IR-6 centrifuges, 30 IR-5 centrifuges, and mechanical tests on IR-9 machines with the capacity of 50 early IR-1 machines.
“Once again, I stress that all our nuclear activities are peaceful and for non-military purposes,” Rouhani said in televised remarks.
“We continue to be committed to our pledge to NPT (non-proliferation treaty) and to the world not to deviate militarily from our nuclear program,” Rouhani said.
The UN atomic watchdog flagged another breach by Iran on Friday, a report by the agency seen by Reuters showed, likely raising tensions with Western powers.
The International Atomic Energy Agency avoids saying Iran has breached the deal. At the same time, it generally only issues such ad hoc reports to member states in the event of a breach. Two diplomats told Reuters what the report described amounted to a fresh breach.
The breach has to do with what counts officially towards Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, a highly sensitive issue since that stockpile could be enriched further to weapons-grade material suitable for nuclear bombs if Iran chose to do so.
After the deal was reached in 2015 the parties to it defined what should count towards the stockpile, and excluded items such as scrap fuel plates with uranium enriched to near 20% fissile purity, which were deemed "unrecoverable." Friday's report, however, said Iran had recovered some of that material.
While the amount of enriched uranium extracted is small, it amounts to a fresh breach at a delicate stage.
After talks among the remaining parties to the deal wrapped up on Friday, France's Foreign Ministry said a "positive" first week of negotiation should not be undermined by new Iranian provocations.
"In this context, it is all the more important that Iran refrain from any further violation of its nuclear commitments that could undermine the current dynamic," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Agnes von der Muhll told reporters.
David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector and a hawk on Iran, said the latest breach also raises questions about what major powers excluded from the enriched uranium stockpile.
"Looking back, exempting this near 20% enriched uranium scrap was probably not a good idea," he said, explaining what scrap means in this case: "When enriched uranium is made into fuel plates, some does not get used, somewhat like batter for a cake."
Last week, in response to a State Department remark that the US is “prepared to take the steps necessary to return to compliance...including by lifting sanctions that are inconsistent with the JCPOA," a senior official in Jerusalem expressed concern that reduced pressure on Iran will not moderate its position.
“One of our problems with the American position,...is that, if you ask people here in the region, the Iranians have moderated their position only when there has been persistent and determined pressure on them," the Israeli official said. “Lifting the leverage that you have…is not the way to get the Iranians to moderate their position.”
*Lahav Harkov contributed to this report.

Iran boasts of '133 nuclear achievements' after Vienna talks
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/April 10/2021
Tehran is saying it will do whatever it wants regarding the enrichment of uranium.
Iran says that it has unveiled 133 new nuclear achievements made by the country’s experts in different areas of the nuclear industry.
The claim came amid a call from President Hassan Rouhani in which he “unveiled the nuclear achievements in the provinces of Tehran, Markazi, Isfahan, Alborz and Qom to mark the 15th anniversary of National Nuclear Technology Day,” Iran’s Press TV said. The achievements included quantum, enrichment, heavy water and deuterium compounds, radiopharmaceuticals, lasers, and other astounding successes, the Islamic Republic says.
“On Rouhani’s order, Iranian experts began injecting gas into a new generation of centrifuges at Natanz enrichment facility. Iran also began the mechanical testing of IR-9 centrifuges and launched an assembly line for its new generation of centrifuges,” Tehran says.
This is a major message to the US after the Vienna talks in which Tehran and Washington agreed to establish working groups. America could try to return to the 2015 JCPOA "Iran Deal" but Iran is driving a hard bargain. It has violated the deal through enrichment while the US walked away in 2018.
“Iran showed to the world the peaceful nature of its nuclear program by signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with six world states – namely the US, Germany, France, Britain, Russia and China – in 2015,” it says. "The nuclear deal was also ratified in the form of a UN Security Council Resolution: 2231."
That Iran claims its nuclear program is entirely peaceful and not aimed at a bomb leads to questions about why the US needed the 2015 deal in the first place. The deal was supposed to block Iran from developing a bomb for some 15 years in exchange for sanctions relief and giving it the right to enrich uranium and stockpile some of it over those years. Iran was also freed from sanctions on its proxy activities, financing terror and building long range missiles.
The Trump administration reversed these policies, slapping on sanctions and designating the IRGC as terrorists, shutting off some Iranian funding for groups like Hezbollah. Critics of the Biden administration are concerned that the US is running back to embrace Iran and a deal; the administration says it isn’t.
IN THIS context, Iran is saying it will do whatever it wants regarding enrichment. It started gas supply to a new generation of centrifuges in Natanz.
“On the 15th anniversary of National Nuclear Technology Day, by order of the President, gasification of new generation centrifuge machines was carried out in Natanz enrichment complex and also IR-9 centrifuge mechanical test was started and the new generation centrifuge assembly center was put into operation,” Iran says.
Fars News in Iran also had a front page story about these nuclear successes. Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization, also spoke at the ceremony today, stating that despite all restrictions and sanctions, various projects in the field of nuclear science and technology have been pursued with vigor.
Which achievements were unveiled and exploited? Design, construction and commissioning of the second phase of industrial production units of various compounds in Arak’s heavy water complex are one example, Fars says. In addition, there is the opening and operation of another facility in Arak. Six nuclear technology projects in the field of enrichment were created at Natanz. The facility was sabotaged last year and advanced centrifuges were allegedly damaged.
In addition Iran says it has completed “design, manufacture and operation of 5 kW and 10 kW fiber laser… Inauguration of the National Center for Quantum Technologies in Tehran; Inauguration of the National Center for Isolation and Development of the Application of Stable Isotopes in Fordow and Qom… Acquisition of knowledge and production of 110 isotopic biomolecules required in the neonatal screening kit… Production of uranium hexafluoride semi-industrial enzymes; production of four radiopharmaceuticals and diagnostics, design and manufacture of a spin-test machine; the construction and assembly of the first prototype of the IR-9S and IR-9IB centrifuges; and the design and construction of 3D laser printing of metals were among the projects that were inaugurated today by the order of the President.”
THIS IS quite a laundry list. “It is worth mentioning that these achievements were unveiled and exploited in Isfahan, Markazi, Alborz, Tehran and Qom provinces,” says Fars. This indicates the scale of the achievements. Some 164 IR-6 centrifuges are in operation with gas being injected into them, the article notes. Mechanical testing of IR-9 centrifuges is also taking place to test their separation capabilities. According to Fars, the new generation centrifuge assembly center was also put into operation today.
According to reports, a study was begun two years ago at the Arak heavy water reactor that has led to a second phase of industrial production. Salehi also boasted last year about this, although Iran said much of the recent work relates to medical issues.
For instance, there were advances in a center in Arak for a hospital that could treat people with radiation burns and radiation accidents. It was not clear why Iran needs this unless its nuclear program has many accidents. Fars says that there was progress on “construction and equipment to provide services to burn patients and possible radiation accidents, and the second phase of the hospital has been designed near the emergency department.”
Regarding Natanz, the article notes that while work dates to 2015, last year there was a “terrorist act [and] part of the infrastructure of this center was destroyed.” However a new center for assembling centrifuges has now been completed. “With this measure, in which all the localization power of the country has been used, from now on, the production of new centrifuge machines will be done without any trouble and there will not be the slightest disturbance in this process,” Iran says.
It appears that Tehran believes its advanced centrifuges could enrich uranium to higher amounts. For instance, the IR-4 centrifuges had been enriching to 5% while advanced centrifuges were then put to use enriching to 20% by March 2021. Iran has some 19,000 centrifuges at Natanz and Fordow. It was enriching uranium to 3.4% for its Tehran research reactor. The higher level of enrichment is not necessary. Iran was also alleged to be producing 5% low-enriched uranium for the Arak reactor.
In November 2020, Iran had only around 1.7 tons of uranium enriched to 4.5%. Under the 2015 deal, it was supposed to not exceed 300 kg. of 3.67% enriched uranium. Iran appears to be saying it can exceed these levels much more in the coming months or years.

UN atomic watchdog reports new Iranian breach of nuclear deal
Reuters/April 10/2021
While the amount of enriched uranium extracted is small, it amounts to a fresh breach at a delicate stage, as the US and Iran hold indirect talks in Vienna regarding a renegotiation of the deal.
VIENNA/PARIS - The UN atomic watchdog on Friday flagged a new breach by Iran of its nuclear deal with major powers on the day those powers met to revive the agreement , a report by the agency seen by Reuters showed, likely raising tensions with Western powers.
The International Atomic Energy Agency avoids saying Iran has breached the deal. At the same time, it generally only issues such ad hoc reports to member states in the event of a breach. Two diplomats told Reuters what the report described amounted to a fresh breach.
The breach has to do with what counts officially towards Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, a highly sensitive issue since that stockpile could be enriched further to weapons-grade material suitable for nuclear bombs if Iran chose to do so. It denies seeking such weapons and says its aims are entirely peaceful.
After the deal was reached in 2015 the parties to it defined what should count towards the stockpile, and excluded items such as scrap fuel plates with uranium enriched to near 20% fissile purity, which were deemed "unrecoverable." Friday's report, however, said Iran had recovered some of that material.
"On 7 April 2021, the Agency verified at the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant at Esfahan that Iran had dissolved six unirradiated scrap fuel plates for the TRR (Tehran Research Reactor) containing 0.43 kg of uranium enriched up to 20% U-235," the report said.
"A uranyl nitrate solution was extracted and converted into ammonium uranyl carbonate," the report said, adding that Iran aimed to process that further to produce molybdenum, which has many civilian uses including in medical imaging.
While the amount of enriched uranium extracted is small, it amounts to a fresh breach at a delicate stage, since Tehran and the United States are holding indirect talks in Vienna on how they could fully return to the deal.
After talks among the remaining parties to the deal wrapped up on Friday, France's Foreign Ministry said a "positive" first week of negotiation should not be undermined by new Iranian provocations.
"In this context, it is all the more important that Iran refrain from any further violation of its nuclear commitments that could undermine the current dynamic," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Agnes von der Muhll told reporters.
David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector and a hawk on Iran, said the latest breach also raises questions about what major powers excluded from the enriched uranium stockpile.
"Looking back, exempting this near 20% enriched uranium scrap was probably not a good idea," he said, explaining what scrap means in this case: "When enriched uranium is made into fuel plates, some does not get used, somewhat like batter for a cake."
 

Pentagon Chief Visits Israel amid Iran Talks
Agence France Presse/April 10, 2021
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin arrived in Jerusalem Sunday, the highest ranked member of President Joe Biden's administration to visit Israel. The two-day visit comes as the Biden administration attempts to return to an Iran nuclear deal abandoned by its predecessor, which Israel opposes.
Austin is expected to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defence Minister Benny Gantz and armed forces chief Lieutenant General Aviv Kochavi. The trip will also include a tour of the Nevatim air force base and visits to the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial and to a Jerusalem memorial to fallen soldiers. Austin arrives days after representatives of the remaining parties to the troubled 2015 nuclear deal launched talks in Vienna on bringing the United States back into it. Then president Donald Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018. The Vienna talks are focused not only on lifting crippling economic sanctions Trump reimposed, but also on bringing Iran back into compliance after it responded by suspending several of its own commitments. All sides said the talks, in which Washington is not participating directly but has the European Union as intermediary, had got off to a good start. Israel opposes the US attempt to rejoin the accord. Speaking last week, Netanyahu said Israel would not be bound by its terms. "An agreement with Iran that would pave the way to nuclear weapons -- weapons that threaten our extinction -- would not compel us in any way," Netanyahu said in a speech, on the eve of Holocaust Remembrance Day. Iran and Israel have both recently attacked each other's commercial shipping, reports say. Austin will also visit Germany, the United Kingdom and Belgium on his tour, according to the Pentagon.

Saudi Arabia Says it Executes Three Soldiers for 'High Treason'
Associated Press/April 10, 2021
Saudi Arabia executed three soldiers Saturday it accused of committing "high treason," without elaborating on which enemy the kingdom believed the men aided. The state-run Saudi Press Agency identified the men as soldiers working in the Defense Ministry. It did not elaborate on how the men aided the kingdom's enemies. Saudi Arabia is fighting Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. The kingdom also views Iran as a regional archrival. The kingdom said the three men were convicted in court and a later royal order served as a death warrant. Saudi Arabia carried out the world's third most executions in 2019, according to figures from Amnesty International. The kingdom followed China and Iran, respectively. In 2019, the kingdom put to death 184 people.

Countries Worldwide Hit New Records for Virus Cases, Deaths
Associated Press/April 10, 2021
Ambulances filled with breathless patients lined up in Brazil as nations around the world set new records Thursday for COVID-19 deaths and new coronavirus infections. The disease surged even in some countries that have kept the virus in check. In the United States, Detroit leaders began making a plan to knock on every door to persuade people to get vaccine shots. Brazil this week became just the second country, after the U.S., to report a 24-hour tally of COVID-19 deaths that exceeded 4,000. India hit a peak of almost 127,000 new cases in 24 hours, and Iran set a new coronavirus infection record for the third straight day, reporting nearly 22,600 new cases. In the state of Rio de Janeiro, emergency services are under their biggest strain since the pandemic began, with ambulances carrying patients of all ages to overcrowded hospitals struggling to care for everyone. Authorities say over 90% of the state's intensive-care unit beds are taken by COVID-19 patients, and many cities are reporting people dying at home due to lack of available medical treatment. "We're already living the third wave. We have three times more calls," in comparison with previous waves, said Adriano Pereira, director of the mobile emergency care service in Duque de Caxias, an impoverished city outside Rio. Brazil's death toll has risen past 340,000, the second-highest total in the world behind the U.S., where nearly 560,000 people have been confirmed killed. The U.S. is the only other country that has had daily death tolls higher than 4,000. A Peruvian report of 4,143 virus deaths on Aug. 14 included deaths from several days.
Rio state's 14-day moving average of COVID-19 daily deaths climbed from 112 to 207 between March 1 and April 7, with some health analysts expecting even worse days in the next couple of weeks. Many hospitals warn about the risk of shortages of oxygen and sedatives for intubation.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged people to get vaccinated, writing in a tweet: "Vaccination is among the few ways we have to defeat the virus. If you are eligible for the vaccine, get your shot soon."
The U.S. has now fully vaccinated nearly 20% of its adult population, and New Mexico became the first state to get shots in the arms of 25% of its residents — milestones that are still far off for many hard-hit countries.
In India, home to 1.4 billion people, only 11 million are fully vaccinated. In Brazil, less than 3% of the country's 210 million people have received both doses, according to Our World in Data, an online research site.
South Korea reported 700 more cases, the highest daily jump since Jan. 5. Health authorities were expected to announce measures to strengthen social distancing following a meeting Friday.
In Thailand, which has reported only 95 deaths during the pandemic, health officials reported the country's first local cases of the coronavirus variant first detected in Britain. The news comes at a time when only 1% of the population has been vaccinated and as Thais prepare to celebrate the traditional Songkran New Year's holiday next week, typically a time of widespread travel. That variant is more contagious, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said this week that it is now the most common variant in the United States, raising concerns it will drive infections and cause more people to get sick.
Michigan has averaged more than 7,000 new cases a day — a number that makes the state second in the nation behind New York. Michigan also has the highest number of new cases per capita, with 1 of every 203 state residents getting diagnosed with COVID-19 between March 31 and April 7, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. In Detroit, which is about 80% Black, officials said they plan to start visiting homes to talk about the importance of protecting themselves from the virus with vaccinations and how to sign up to receive the shots. "We're going to knock on every residential door in the city, making sure every Detroiter knows how to make an appointment," Victoria Kovari, an executive assistant to Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, told The Detroit News.
Only 22% of Detroit residents have received at least one vaccine dose compared to 38% for all of Michigan, according to Michigan's Department of Health and Human Services. Other Midwestern states have seen troubling signs in recent days, including a school district in Iowa where 127 students and five staff members tested positive for the coronavirus or are presumed positive. In Massachusetts, where the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases has risen to over 2,100 new cases per day, the Massachusetts Public Health Association called on Republican Gov. Charlie Baker to reinstate public health measures. The group urged Baker to limit indoor dining capacity and other indoor activities, saying the rise in cases and hospitalizations followed Baker's decision to loosen those restrictions.
"We are currently in a race between the vaccines and the variants," Carlene Pavlos, the group's executive director said Thursday. "Without these public health measures, even more innocent lives will be needlessly lost."

Irish PM Warns of 'Spiral' as Unrest Simmers in N.Ireland
Agence France Presse/April 10, 2021
Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin warned against a "spiral back" into sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland on Saturday, after a week-long streak of unrest in the British province. Saturday marked the 23rd anniversary of the 1998 "Good Friday Agreement", which wound down "The Troubles" a decades-long conflict in the region which claimed 3,500 lives. "We owe it to the agreement generation and indeed future generations not to spiral back to that dark place of sectarian murders and political discord," Martin said in a statement. "There is now a particular onus on those of us who currently hold the responsibility of political leadership to step forward and play our part and ensure that this cannot happen." Police said disorder continued on Friday night, albeit on a smaller scale to relative to clashes elsewhere in Belfast earlier in the week. The most bitter unrest in recent years has mainly emanated from the pro-UK unionist community. Resentment is simmering in some quarters over apparent economic dislocation due to Brexit and existing tensions with pro-Irish nationalist communities. But the violence has since spread into the nationalist community in the divided British province. On Thursday night nationalist rioters hurled petrol bombs, fireworks, bricks and bottles at ranks of armoured police vehicles preventing their advance to a unionist enclave. Officers deployed a water cannon for the first time in years and drove back the surging crowds late into the night. On Wednesday night, the gates in a "peace wall" separating unionist and nationalist neighbourhoods were set alight. Police said crowds from either side broke through to attack each other with petrol bombs, missiles and fireworks. On Friday marches had been planned in unionist communities in Belfast but they were cancelled following the news that Prince Philip -- the husband of Queen Elizabeth II -- had died. "Protests are postponed as a mark of respect to the Queen and the Royal Family," a hastily erected placard in one unionist neighbourhood announced.

World Leaders Pay Tribute to Prince Philip
Agence France Presse/April 10, 2021
Current and former world leaders joined a chorus of condolences from around the world following the death of Prince Philip on Friday at the age of 99.
Here are some reactions:
- Britain -British Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed Philip's "extraordinary life", sending his condolences to Queen Elizabeth after her husband's death was announced. Johnson said the Duke of Edinburgh "earned the affection of generations" at home, in the Commonwealth and across the world.
"We give thanks, as a nation and a kingdom, for the extraordinary life and work of Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh," he added. Former prime minister Tony Blair hailed Philip's public service, calling him "a man of foresight, determination and courage".
- US -US President Joe Biden paid tribute to Philip as a selfless servant of Britain and its people."From his service during World War II, to his 73 years alongside the Queen, and his entire life in the public eye -- Prince Philip gladly dedicated himself to the people of the UK, the Commonwealth, and to his family," Biden said in a statement. Former president Donald Trump said his death was an "irreplaceable" loss and expressed his and wife Melania's "heartfelt sympathies" to the queen and her family. On Facebook former president Barack Obama praised Philip as someone who took his job as husband to the queen with selflessness. "At the queen's side or trailing the customary two steps behind, Prince Philip showed the world what it meant to be a supportive husband to a powerful woman."
- Ireland -Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin said he was "saddened" by Philip's death, adding: "Our thoughts and prayers are with Queen Elizabeth and the people of the United Kingdom."
- Australia -Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison ordered flags to be flown at half-mast. "There are many towering figures that the world has lost and known, but few have been before us in our lifetimes, for such a long time," Morrison said Saturday. "Above all, he was a man who was steadfast, who could be relied upon, always standing by his Queen," said the leader of the Commonwealth nation.
- France -French President Emmanuel Macron paid tribute to Philip and sent his condolences to the queen. Philip "lived an exemplary life defined by bravery, a sense of duty and commitment to youth and the environment", he said on Twitter.
- Germany -German Chancellor Angela Merkel said his death filled her with "great sadness". "His friendship with Germany, his straightforward nature and his sense of duty will remain unforgotten," Merkel said.
- Canada -Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called Philip a "man of great purpose and conviction, who was motivated by a sense of duty to others", in a tribute on behalf of his Commonwealth nation.He will be "fondly remembered as a constant in the life of our Queen", he said.
- European Union -EU Commission head Ursula von der Leyen said on Twitter she was "saddened to hear of the passing of His Royal Highness Prince Philip". "I would like to extend my sincere sympathy to Her Majesty The Queen, the Royal Family and the people of the United Kingdom on this very sad day."
- India -Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid tribute to Philip's long career, saying his "thoughts are with the British people and the Royal family".
"He had a distinguished career in the military and was at the forefront of many community service initiatives. May his soul rest in peace," he tweeted.
- Israel -Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed his "deepest condolences". "Prince Philip was the consummate public servant and will be much missed in Israel and across the world," he wrote. Philip was the first British royal to visit Israel in 1994. His mother Princess Alice is buried in a church on the Mount of Olives.
- Kenya -President Uhuru Kenyatta said he had been a unifying figure.
"His Royal Highness Prince Philip has been a towering symbol of family values and the unity of the British people as well as the entire global community." Philip's wife Elizabeth became queen in 1952 while on a trip to Kenya when her father George VI died.
- Pakistan -Prime Minister Imran Khan praised the duke for his support for Pakistan, which he last visited with the queen in 1997.
"Britain has lost a wise elder who was imbued with a unique spirit of public service," he tweeted.
- Italy -Italian President Sergio Mattarella praised Philip's "exemplary dedication, accompanying the evolution of his country with an open and innovative spirit".Italians would "cherish a grateful memory of his deep admiration for Italy’s artistic and cultural heritage", he said.
- Russia -Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Philip and wished Elizabeth "courage and mental fortitude in the face of a grievous and irreparable loss". "He rightfully enjoyed respect among the British and internationally," a statement from the Kremlin cited Putin as saying.
- Spain -Spain's King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia hailed Prince Philip's "sense of service and dedication to the crown and the United Kingdom," in a letter to the queen.
- Japan -Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said Japan felt "deep sadness" at the news. "I pay profound respect for his great contribution to further strengthening historical relations between our country's imperial family and the British Royal family as well as promoting mutual understanding between Japanese and British people," he added.
- Malaysia -The Malaysian prime minister said Prince Philip would be "sadly missed" after "a life spent in selfless service to the greater good."Malaysia's king and queen said he would be remembered for his "steadfast support" of the queen, as well as "his unwavering commitment to the Commonwealth of which Malaysia is a proud member and his efforts to promote stronger ties between the United Kingdom and Malaysia." - China -President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan sent a message to Queen Elizabeth II expressing "their deep condolences on Prince Philip’s passing, and sincere sympathies to the Queen and her family".

US eyes tactical withdrawal from Middle East to focus on China
The Arab Weekly/April 10/2021
WASHINGTON – Last month, a special team consisting of 15 Pentagon senior officials began working on developing a comprehensive plan to prepare American forces, deployed in various parts of the world, for a possible mission to confront China’s threat. It is within this context that the US committed last week to move all remaining combat forces from Iraq, although the two sides did not set a timeline in what would be the second withdrawal since the 2003 invasion. The special team was established by US President Joe Biden, its lead unit is placed in the Department of Defence. The real leader is the Secretary of Defence. The Chief of Military and Political Affairs is in charge and the team’s leader is Eli Ratner, Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin’s special assistant to China. Ratner is expected to present a report in the coming weeks to the US Secretary of Defence and the National Security Committee on the required defence capabilities in the event of a military confrontation with China. Those capabilities, according to reports, include a defense strategy, an availability of personnel and weapons and actions to manage technical and cyber deficiencies.
Although Ratner’s report has not yet been released, a source familiar with the discussions taking place between the task force and other US official bodies confirmed it will include recommendations that will undoubtedly lead to a large-scale redeployment of US forces currently present in bases outside the United States. The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, added that an in-depth discussion is taking place now about the effect of this redeployment on the number of American forces in the Arab Gulf region. Although the discussion did not reach the stage of determining the number and type of forces to be transferred from the Gulf to the east, it is certain today that the American presence in the Gulf region will not remain the same. Indeed, a US debate has already begun about whether a military redeployment would affect American presence in the Gulf and the ability of the US to protect its interests and those of its allies, especially with the continued presence of Iran and its proxies in the region.The solutions presented revolve around the development of defence capabilities in the Gulf region, especially those against missiles and conventional and unmanned aircraft to make up for the human shortage. As for the sea lanes, talks revolve around activating an agreement to protect navigation on a larger scale and raising the level of reliance on the region’s countries to defend their own waters against any Iranian aggression. It is expected that Saudi Arabia will be the most affected by the American redeployment due to the large presence of US forces on its soil, on the one hand, and the threat that Yemen’s Houthi militias pose on the kingdom’s southern border on the other hand.
New priorities
Over the past few days, the United States has already started withdrawing some heavy military hardware from Saudi Arabia, including Patriot missile batteries and an aircraft carrier that has always been present in Saudi waters. According to US statements, this move was due to the need for this equipment to be deployed in other regions. In the coming days, the military redeployments will be even bigger, experts say, with a focus on keeping the advanced anti-ballistic missile defense system THAAD and a broad defensive and offensive air force on the Saudi territory. Observers argue that recent joint Iraqi-US statements that centred on the presence of US forces amount to a reformulation of the current reality rather than a strategic shift.
The first “strategic dialogue” with Iraq under Biden’s administration came recently as Iranian-linked Shia paramilitary groups fire rockets nearly daily at bases with foreign troops in hopes of forcing a US exit. The coalition is led from Baghdad by Brigadier General Ryan Reddott, who was officially named to an official advisory position last July. Commenting on the news of troops’ withdrawal, the Pentagon said it would redeploy its personnel based on the nature of threats across the world. Experts say that the United States views China as a top strategic threat and therefore the Americans can reduce their presence in parts of the Middle East, even if such a move could be to the benefit of Iran. The experts point out that the withdrawal will be gradual, with Washington reducing its direct presence across military bases in the Gulf region and Iraq, provided that the air presence continues or is boosted as a future strategy in the region. Earlier this week, Iraq and the US agreed in a videoconference led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein that Iraqi forces were ready to take on more responsibility. “The parties confirmed that the mission of US and coalition forces has now transitioned to one focused on training and advisory tasks, thereby allowing for the redeployment of any remaining combat forces from Iraq, with the timing to be established in upcoming technical talks,” a joint statement said.
Iraq has walked a fine line in balancing its relations between the United States and Iran, which shares religious ties with its Shia-majority neighbour.
Iraqi calls soared for a withdrawal of US troops in January 2020 after former president Donald Trump ordered the assassination in Baghdad of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani — and tensions have remained high.
Biden in February ordered airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian-linked paramilitaries after a rocket attack killed a contractor for the US-led coalition and injured US personnel. But Biden, in a rare point of agreement with Trump, has been looking for ways to wind down what have come to be dubbed “endless wars.”Trump had ordered a drawdown in his final months from Iraq as well as Afghanistan with the number of US troops in each country dipping to 2,500 by January 15. Iraq’s national security adviser Qassem al-Araji promised efforts to protect foreign forces and confirmed that the United States would move ahead with a pullout. “The American side promised to withdraw an important number of its troops from Iraq,” he said.
The Pentagon declined to specify a timeline for a withdrawal, saying it would be worked out in the technical talks. “We’ve all been working to an eventual redeployment,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters, “when there’s no need for American support on the ground.”
Former president Barack Obama, under whom Biden served as vice president, had removed all US forces from Iraq in a fulfilment of his pledges after opposing the 2003 invasion. But Obama sent troops back in 2014 as the Islamic State group rampaged across Iraq and Syria, brutally slaying and enslaving all but Sunni Muslims as it established a self-styled “caliphate.”Now, the focus on leaving Iraq comes as Biden increasingly looks to de-prioritise Middle Eastern wars and devote more resources to a global rivalry with China. Biden has also taken a greater distance from ally Saudi Arabia, including ending support for its devastating war in Yemen and has looked to ease tensions with Iran. Iraqi political circles say the withdrawal of ground forces from Iraq will give the US new possibilities to target pro-Iranian militias while avoiding direct confrontation. Also, this move will assist Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in pressing ahead with efforts to disarm militias while improving relations with both Washington and Arab countries. Kadhimi is under pressure from Iran-backed militias to end the presence of 2,500 American soldiers on Iraqi soil, but Iraqi security officials say this limited presence is still needed for the security of Iraq. Randa Selim, Director of the Initiative for Track II Dialogues at the DC-based Middle East Institute, described the joint Iraqi-US statement released on Wednesday as the result of cautious policies but with little change. She said that the aim of the statements was, first, to “strengthen the position of the prime minister,” and secondly, to “send messages to the Iraqi people that there is a new relationship between the United States and Iraq, which does not focus solely on security.”

Normalisation between Egypt and Turkey hindered by issues of mercenaries, Brotherhood
The Arab Weekly/April 10/2021
CAIRO – Egyptian security sources told The Arab Weekly Friday that talks to normalise relations between Cairo and Ankara have slowed down, with Cairo having doubts about Turkey’s serious intent to withdraw its mercenaries from Libya and the extradition of Muslim Brotherhood leaders wanted by the Egyptian judiciary. There have even been reports from the Egyptian side of the suspension of talks. Recent developments have contradicted accounts which circulated last week that reconciliation between the two sides was imminent. Prominent Turkish Justice and Development Party member, Ismail Karayel, confirmed in statements to the local newspaper “Yeni Safak” that “An agreement between the two sides is imminent, and the European rivals will be left out in the cold. Finalising the agreement between Egypt and Turkey will leave no room for the European Union to reach the eastern Mediterranean”. “As soon as the agreement between Egypt and Turkey is signed, the European Union will find itself outside the equation. Egypt is close to signing … and God willing, the agreement will come to light soon,” Karayel added. While Cairo was waiting for Turkey to withdraw its Syrian mercenaries from western Libya, the Turkish government recently sent a new batch of 380 fighters, according to a report by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Sources in Egypt said that the withdrawal of the mercenaries from Libya was seen as an essential part of the process of normalisation with Ankara and this provision could not be delayed or waived. But Turkey has not proved to be serious about fulfilling this condition so far and instead appears instead to be playing for time. Such an attitude is rejected by Egypt which considers the issues of the Brotherhood and the mercenaries as essential parts of any understanding. Sources indicated that Turkey’s reluctance to pull out its fighters is not directed at Egypt alone, but is also intended as a message to European countries that are exerting political pressure on Ankara on other regional issues. Ankara’s message is that it will not yield without major concessions in exchange and will not agree to withdraw its forces and dismantle its military infrastructure in Libya without economic guarantees.
The Arab Weekly learned from diplomatic sources that Ankara links the withdrawal of mercenaries to the protection of its economic influence in Libya as well as Libyan investments and funds in Turkey. It realises that the new Government of National Unity , including both the presidency and the government, wants to win the confidence of the international community by distancing itself to a certain degree from Turkey.
The Libyan interim government also sees the mercenaries’ exit as a way to gain the confidence of the population before the elections. At the same time, Cairo seems sceptical of Turkey’s intent to hand over the leading Brotherhood members who are wanted by Egyptian courts or to shutter the group’s affiliated TV channels, instead of merely exerting control on them. .These considerations have compelled the Egyptian government to adopt an extremely cautious attitude towards rapprochement with Ankara. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also said to be unsure of Cairo’s willingness to meet his own demands in exchange for ending his support for the Brotherhood, such as siding with Turkey against both Greece and Cyprus. Tariq Abu Al-Saad, an expert on Islamist movements, said Erdogan has not yet relinquished the Brotherhood card and considers his relationship with the group as similar to Iran’s ties to Hezbollah.
His relationship with the Brotherhood has in fact proven to be the most important tool for carrying out his foreign policy and making inroads in Libya and northern Syria.
Abu AlSaad further told The Arab Weekly that these ties allow Erdogan to pressure regimes in the region, including that of Egypt. It is also his best bet to carry out his designs when it comes to expanding Turkey’s influence, destabilising rivals and controlling the region’s riches.
He continued, “If it abandons the Brotherhood as Egypt demands, then this means the end of Turkey’s ability to influence developments in the region to promote its interests. This approach was inspired by Iran’s achievement of gains through support to ideological sectarian groups, and made Washington negotiate with Tehran.”Abu AlSaad added that Erdogan wanted, by announcing his sudden rapprochement with Cairo, to put a brake on the pressures from his domestic opposition which used his feud with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi and the issue of Ankara’s support to the Brotherhood as grounds to attack him. He pointed out that Erdogan fixed his relationship with Egypt and reduced his support for the Brotherhood, to deprive the opposition of any justification for attacking him and curbing his popularity. But now, “he will not go any further than what he has already done with the Brotherhood members residing in Turkey, that is, to control their media discourse only, and will not initiate the withdrawal of mercenaries from Libya as envisioned by Egypt.”​The Turkish authorities issued directives to stop political programmes on the Brotherhood satellite channels that broadcast from Istanbul, namely “Watan”, “Al Sharq” and “Mkameleen”, a step that was welcomed by the Egyptian Minister of Information, Osama Haykal, while observers considered it a symbolic step that paves the way for a type of half-reconciliation with Egypt.

Saied’s visit to Egypt underlines common views on Libya, Nile
The Arab Weekly/April 10/2021
TUNIS – During his first official visit to Cairo, Tunisian President Kais Saied expressed his support to Egypt’s “water security” concerns in the Nile dam row opposing it to Ethiopia and underlined Tunisian and Egyptian support to the national integrity of Libya. The points of agreement were announced after talks Saied held with Egypt’s president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Saturday. Kais Saied had arrived in Cairo on Friday for a three-day visit. He was welcomed at the airport by President Sisi. The two leaders held “extensive and constructive” talks Saturday at Cairo’s Ittihadiya palace, Saied said. “We hope that Libya goes down the correct path… There’s no way of dividing Libya,” he told a joint news conference with Sisi. Libya is a neighbour to Egypt and Tunisia. The country plunged into chaos after a NATO-backed uprising in 2011 toppled longtime ruler Muammar Gadhafi. The two leaders also discussed the issue of the dam Ethiopia is building on the Nile River’s main tributary. Egypt and Sudan consider the project a major threat if it is filled and operated without a legally binding agreement. The Tunisian president said his country supports Egypt’s position in the yearslong dispute. He said “any damage to Egypt’s water security is unacceptable”. “We are looking for just solutions, but Egypt’s national security is ours, and Egypt’s position… will be ours.”Sisi said he agreed with his Tunisian counterpart to cooperate on fighting terrorist groups and stemming their sources of support. This particular point is likely to prove contentious with Islamist formations and leading figures in Tunisia, who even before the arrival of Saied to Egypt, expressed anger and concern about the visit.
Tunisian Islamists are traditionally critical of Sisi’s crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood which they portray as a victim of repression. They are also distrustful of any rapprochement between Saied and Sisi. Former Tunisian president Mohamed Moncef Marzouki, an Islamist ally, said Saied “does not represent the revolution that allowed him to rise to power, nor does he represent Tunisia’s independence, the unity of its state, its interests and values, and most important of all, its honour, which is the most valuable quality of an individual and of people, in general.” The Tunisian presidency did not comment on Marzouki’s statements, but said, in a statement Thursday, that the president’s visit to Egypt aims to “build bridges of communication and consolidate consultation and coordination between the leaderships of the two countries.” The Islamist Ennahda Movement did not officially comment on Saied’s visit but the party’s supporters vented their anger in social media. Rashid el-Khiyari, an MP with the radical Islamist Dignity Coalition, which is closely aligned with Ennahda, criticised Saied, claiming his visit to Egypt is “prelude to normalisation with Israel”.Saied’s visit to Cairo comes after his visit to Libya last March, when he held talks with a transitional administration that took office there to prepare for national elections scheduled for next December.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published  on April 10-11/2021

Can We Win in the 'Gray Zone'?
Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/April 10, 2021
The gray zone is the space between peace and war involving coercive actions that fall outside normal geopolitical competition between states but do not reach the level of armed conflict.... They usually seek to avoid a significant military response, though are often designed to intimidate and deter a target state by threatening further escalation.
[B]ut do liberal democracies in the 21st Century have the political will to do the dirty work that is necessary to win?
Western nations have multiple pre-emptive and reactive options to respond to gray zone actions directed against them or their allies, most effectively involving multilateral coordination. The objective should be to frustrate or deter, avoiding escalation that might lead to all-out conflict. Broadly, options fall into four categories: diplomatic, informational, economic and military.
Democracies' fear of escalation is a significant deterrent against the use of violent military options in the gray zone, and that is exactly the fear that authoritarian states like Iran wish to instil.....[F]ear of escalation is not the greatest obstacle to the use of a military option — transparency is.
Deterrence is not down to the military option alone. Where possible, diplomatic, informational and economic actions are preferable in providing the necessary punishments. But gray zone opponents who are willing to use military action must also be confronted with a credible military jeopardy to them, and not just a paper capability which will quickly be seen for what it is.
How confident can we be that liberal democracies mean business in the gray zone? When British troops were being killed and maimed in large numbers in Iraq by Iranian proxies... more than a decade ago, the UK government would not even consider any form of gray zone military action, even non-lethal, against Iran, despite a clear capability to do so. Instead they relied on diplomatic démarches -- and the killings continued. The consequences of such weakness are still being played out in Iran's widespread gray zone aggression. If back then — in the face of the slaughter of dozens of their own troops — political leaders' fear of escalation and political fallout caused such paralysis, how likely is it that they will seriously contemplate violent gray zone operations today....
In April, US President Joe Biden issued his Interim National Security Strategic Guidance. Across the Atlantic, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson presented the Integrated Review of Security, Defense, Development and Foreign Policy to parliament. Both leaders expressed concern over the increasing challenges in the gray zone and promised measures to respond more effectively.
The gray zone is the space between peace and war involving coercive actions that fall outside normal geopolitical competition between states but do not reach the level of armed conflict. Actions in the gray zone are conducted by states often using proxies including terrorists, and also by terrorist organizations in their own right. Gray zone actions are aggressive and often ambiguous, deniable and opaque. They are intended to damage, coerce or influence, to destabilise target states or undermine the international status quo. They usually seek to avoid a significant military response, though are often designed to intimidate and deter a target state by threatening further escalation.
Gray zone actions are not new and have long been the prevalent form of conflict across the world. But as America and Britain both recognise, globalisation and technology are increasing the frequency and efficacy of such activities, and the speed at which they unfold. More actors are becoming involved, using increasingly powerful means of "gray warfare", including cyber, space, internet, social media, digital propaganda and drones.
Gray zone techniques can include terrorist attacks, sabotage, assassination, blackmail, hostage-taking, espionage, subversion such as funding and manipulation of political groups in a target country), cyber attacks, political warfare including lawfare, disinformation, propaganda, electoral influence and economic coercion. They sometimes involve military intimidation and conventional and unconventional military operations.
Examples include Russia's 2018 nerve agent assassination attempt in the UK, annexation of the Crimea and efforts to influence European parliamentary elections; China's encroachment tactics and actions around disputed features in the South and East China Seas as well as military aggression against India in the Ladakh region and extreme pressure on Hong Kong; Iran's repeated proxy terrorist attacks in the Middle East, South America, the United States, Europe and elsewhere, seizure and attacks on international shipping and proxy missile attacks against US installations in Iraq; and Pakistan's active sponsorship of the Taliban against the US-led coalition in Afghanistan and terrorist attacks in India.
Britain's Integrated Review undertakes new capabilities to deal with gray zone challenges. Most notably it re-focuses the Special Air Service and other special forces against hostile state actors and creates the Ranger Regiment, a new special forces group akin to the US Green Berets and described by the Defense Secretary as "gray zone warriors".
The UK Ministry of Defense says these measures, together with a more "persistent" forward-deployed stance, will enable British forces to be "credible and capable to deter, and if necessary, defeat our adversaries in conflict as well as to allow us to compete below the threshold of armed conflict". These enhancements may well provide the military capability to operate alongside allies in the gray zone, but do liberal democracies in the 21st Century have the political will to do the dirty work that is necessary to win? I exclude Israel from this question, as it has long proved highly effective at defending itself using gray zone military actions.
Western nations have multiple pre-emptive and reactive options to respond to gray zone actions directed against them or their allies, most effectively involving multilateral coordination. The objective should be to frustrate or deter, avoiding escalation that might lead to all-out conflict. Broadly, options fall into four categories: diplomatic, informational, economic and military.
With the exception of some informational responses, perhaps involving disinformation, the first three categories carry little political risk for democracies and have been used frequently and to varying effect. For example, after the nerve agent attack on its soil, Britain applied limited economic sanctions and rallied an international diplomatic effort against Russia, expelling more than 100 intelligence operatives across North America and Europe; and the Trump administration imposed counter-terrorism sanctions on Iran following numerous acts of regional aggression.
Beyond symbolic demonstrations of force such as NATO deployments in Lithuania against Russian aggression and the forthcoming UK carrier strike group freedom of navigation patrol in the South China Sea, the military category of responses includes limited conventional combat, covert operations, cyber attacks and espionage. Each of these could be vitally important in confronting gray zone actions but are accompanied by significant political risk.
A prominent recent example is the 2020 US missile strike against Iranian IRGC Quds Force chief Qasim Soleimani, himself a master of the gray zone, who had been involved — among other nefarious activities — for many years in orchestrating attacks against the US and its allies. The killing of Soleimani was an outlier in US operations in the gray zone and was condemned at the time by now-President Biden who likened it to "tossing a stick of dynamite into a tinderbox", and predicted a "major conflict across the Middle East".
Democracies' fear of escalation is a significant constraint against the use of violent military options in the gray zone, and that is exactly the fear that authoritarian states such as Iran wish to instil. As long as responses are carefully calibrated, however, escalation into the sort of conflagration President Biden warned of is unlikely. In fact the point of gray zone operations is to avoid escalation to all-out conflict with the US and its allies.
Provided that the limited purposes of our opponents' gray zone actions are properly understood, however, fear of escalation is not the greatest obstacle to the use of a military option — transparency is. In most countries the work of intelligence services and special forces are classified and do not normally have to be specifically reported or authorised in legislatures. Weighing a decision on even the most limited military intervention, however, political leaders will reasonably be concerned about the possibility of leaks and forced accountability, increasingly so in the era of social media. This is compounded by the reality that our opponents in the gray zone will often leave no stone unturned to reveal and publicise the actions of our forces. The all-pervasive Western media would inevitably seize on any leak or exposure and very often distort it to increase political damage — a problem more rarely encountered by authoritarian states.
All military operations by Western forces must be conducted in accordance with domestic and international law, including in the gray zone, with clear determination by governments on whether conduct of hostilities or law enforcement paradigms apply in specific operations. Adherence to the law, nevertheless, is no guarantee that action that is exposed won't be politically damaging, especially if it goes wrong, which is always a strong risk. This is complicated by the need in some circumstances to adopt an indirect approach — conducting gray zone military action against an opponent in a different country and against a different issue to the one that prompted it.
Churchill famously said: "In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies". This applies equally in the gray zone where opacity and deniability surrounding military action are likely to be essential for its success, both before and after the event, and might also be a critical factor in avoiding further escalation. That puts democracies at a distinct disadvantage compared to authoritarian regimes, which suppress information about their operations, whether legal or illegal.
The Ranger concept envisages UK forces accompanying partners on operations when necessary. In some instances that might expose British troops to legal hazard and is a further factor that is likely to deter political authorisation of gray zone operations. No matter how extensively schooled in the laws of war, there is no guarantee that the type of foreign forces that need British assistance in battle will adhere to them. I knew of a highly trained coalition-accompanied Iraqi unit that whenever attacked on the streets of Baghdad always responded with the "death bloom" — face outwards and empty your magazine at everything that moves. Potentially, accompanying British troops would be considered partially culpable in any such actions.
That aside, opaque and undeclared gray zone military operations that are considered lawful and legitimate today might be seen through a different prism tomorrow. Thousands of British troops have been investigated over spurious allegations of war crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan, even though operations were conducted more openly, and there have been threats to drag British troops into the dock at the International Criminal Court. Today, retired soldiers are facing prosecution for events that took place half a century ago in Northern Ireland, despite having been investigated and cleared of any wrongdoing at the time. New protective legislation currently going through parliament might limit such legal concerns for the soldiers and commanders involved, but is unlikely to allay the fears of political leaders.
If the political risk is so high, is it necessary to respond in kind to military action in the gray zone? The UK Integrated Review says: "We will seek to deter states from aggressive acts: through the prospect of punishment — by detecting, attributing and responding accordingly." Deterrence is not down to the military option alone. Where possible, diplomatic, informational and economic actions are preferable in providing punishments. But sometimes it is necessary to fight fire with fire, and gray zone opponents who are willing to use military action must also be confronted with a credible military jeopardy to them, and not just a paper capability which will quickly be seen for what it is. The threat or actual use of violent and sometimes escalatory gray zone operations, despite inherent risks, can not only mitigate or prevent potentially serious damage caused by our opponents but also reduce the prospects of the immeasurably worse option of all-out war.
How confident can we be that liberal democracies mean business in the gray zone? When British (as well as American) troops were being killed and maimed in large numbers in Iraq by Iranian proxies using Iranian munitions more than a decade ago, the UK government would not even consider any form of gray zone military action, even non-lethal, against Iran, despite a clear capability to do so. Instead they relied on diplomatic démarches -- and the killings continued. The consequences of such weakness are still being played out in Iran's widespread gray zone aggression. If back then — in the face of the slaughter of their own troops — political leaders' fear of escalation and political fallout caused such paralysis, how likely is it that they will seriously contemplate violent gray zone operations today, especially if the stakes are not as high?
*Colonel Richard Kemp is a former British Army Commander. He was also head of the international terrorism team in the U.K. Cabinet Office and is now a writer and speaker on international and military affairs. He is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Dirty Erdogan, the Sexist Profanity of the Ottoman Sultan and its Derivatives
Charles Elias Chartouni/April 10/2021

قذارة اردوغان، اهانات السلطان التمييزية بحق النساء ومتفرعاتها

http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/97781/charles-elias-chartouni-dirty-erdogan-the-sexist-profanity-of-the-ottoman-sultan-and-its-derivatives-%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a/
“Carthago Delenda Est”
Cato the Censor (149 BC)
The protocol blunder towards Ursula Von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, rather than being a benign slip up is a deliberate act of humiliation which targets her moral stature as a woman, the dignity of her position and the aura of the EU institutions. By refusing her a chair alongside his seat and the one of the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, the Turkish dictator engages, once again, in one of his usual incivilities which aim at degrading his counterparts in Western democracies, emphasize his blatant sexism, and demean the moral and political standing of European institutions. The complacency demonstrated by Charles Michel and Ursula Von der Leyen is unacceptable by any standard, it highlights the neurasthenic apathy towards an insulting dictator who gains traction through political and ethical aggression, crude blackmailing tactics, and utter disregard of international civility and Human Rights meta-narrative which underpins the European conglomerate.
The moral cowardice displayed by Charles Michel and the undue politeness of Mrs. Von der Leyen are symptomatic of a mental state of denial, whereby European Commissioners and EU leaders choose to look the other way when confronted with the ugly realities of Islamist Turkey, its deliberate subversion politics and challenges to the normative foundations of the European Community. The ostrich politics are becoming more and more irrelevant, since the violation of the moral consensus which undergirds the Euro-Mediterranean partnership far from being erratic, has become a systemic pattern of behavior that questions the future of the relationships with Islamist Turkey, weighs on peace in the Mediterranean rim, and undermines the resilience of an energetic civil opposition in Turkey.
When Erdogan retreated from the Istanbul convention against women violence last March, and relayed it with the deliberate humiliation of the Highest EU officer as a woman and head of the European Commission, one wonders to whichever extent this community is in control of its moral bearings, and has the necessary fortitude to enforce its moral compass on its member-States and partners. It’s about time to put an end to the egregious moral and political violations of this fascist Islamist, break the unending cycle of his reprehensible demeanor, and contain the cascading effects of his deliberate delinquency within Turkey, and all along the Euro-Mediterranean limes. The Sultan delusions should be destroyed and blown into smithereens.
 

Keep the lights on for Arab cultural capitals
Haitham El-Zobaidi/The Arab Weekly/April 10/2021
The scene of the rise and fall of Arab cultural cities is repeated.
The reasons are numerous, but the result is the same, and it means a loss for the region, its intellectuals, and its people.
The place which a capital occupies in cultural affairs is a valuable asset that should not be underestimated. It takes a lot of time and effort to build, but the result is absolutely positive.
Since the exit of the Ottomans and the coming of Westerners into the Arab world, the capitals have prospered. Cairo preceded everyone. The “mother of the world”, par excellence, at the time. Cairo, and some major cities in Egypt, bustling with activity. Cultural creativity would not stop in one way or the other. Literature, art, cinema and theatre productions as well as interest in the plastic arts were probably better than some European-Mediterranean countries. Egyptian cinema used to produce hundreds of films each year. Where was the Greek film industry, for instance?
Cultural influence radiated from Cairo and spread warmth to many parts of the Arab world. The rival capitals, Baghdad and Damascus, then paid attention. It was not long before the movement began to sweep through the public, as it acquired an artistic and cultural taste. The public clamoured for Iraqi and Syrian touches in all art genres. Beirut was the smartest among the emerging actors. It knew where the movement would stop in Baghdad and Damascus, and where political intervention would fail in the Egyptian cultural scene after the fifties.
The capitals were important for their people, first, and for the Arabs they attracted, second. At one point, these capitals were competing for cultural glory, and mixing artistic, literary and political themes. We were the beneficiaries. Other capitals were starting to rise and quickly learning their lesson. In Kuwait of the 1960s and 1970s, the construction of roads in the new city ran parallel with the sponsorship of cultural projects, with the flourishing of theatre and drama, and with the tapping into heritage.
Then the political overpowered the cultural. The journey of atrophy then began. Songs became patriotic hymns. Statues were sculpted to glorify leaders. Paintings became pictures of battles and suffering, offering images of real and fake glories. You could find even a group called the “Military Theatre”. Is there worse than this name? Literature is the literature of conflicts and battles. Cinema fell between business films and dark experimental films that evaded reality. Woe to us from what the poets did.
This does not mean that the arena is devoid of intellectuals. They were sad witnesses to the scene of broken cultural capitals, waiting for a way out of the crisis. The wait has been long and things are still the same in these cities.
At an important historical juncture, the Gulf presented itself as an alternative. Arab intellectuals were welcomed. They had festivals, initiatives and projects. Most importantly, they had the money that could help instil the cultural landscape with movement. Abundant money was generously spent.
You go to any Gulf capital and you see the architectural and urban movement in full swing. Culturally sophisticated people were reassured because that was the normal state of affairs in the first place.
The political dimension was relatively absent. The Gulf people really wanted the cities of the Gulf to become the cities of alternative Arab culture.
The competition between the capitals was in full swing. And the most beautiful thing about the scene was its diversity. Some cities chose heritage. Others a mix between heritage and contemporary art. A third group of cities, used some of heritage-based symbolism but admitted that there were limits to the results achieved and set to establish new cultural foundations premised on the dynamics of the changing world
The Gulf region was aware of the changes. It is difficult to imagine a country being able to emerge from the domination of the Salafists, for example, without the help of culture. The Islamists preceded the intellectuals to the Gulf, and it was necessary to dismantle their system there.
A politician can take a security measure banning the activities of individuals and groups. However, the real impact on society passes through its cultural reconfiguration with different tools, one of which is direct cultural activity, and the other indirect action through the media.
In this endeavour, the Gulf states leased cultural spaces in traditional capitals. Drama production took place in Syria and Egypt. Shows were produced in Lebanon. Historical drama was filmed in Morocco.
These countries have not forgotten their contribution to Gulf productions. Drama emerged so did demand for it. It is true that the faces were repetitious to the point of boredom, but they were present and demanded. Just had a touch of botox and fillers added to the faces.
The Gulf states borrowed from the Arab cultural heritage in the face of extremism as well, and there were remarkable breakthroughs in dealing with the takfiri, Salafist and Muslim Brotherhood mindsets in society. The calm now prevailing in the Gulf, the decline in the export of suicide bombers to neighbouring countries, and the curbs on jihadist funding are not only a result of the tightening of the security grip. Culture has been present. A TV series can change the minds of hundreds of thousands of people. A documentary film about the disasters of war in a neighbouring country gives pause to societies accustomed to peace, wealth and development.
But the trend is now receding. For financial and political reasons, the Gulf states are withdrawing their funding and sponsoring of intellectuals.
We do not say spend, but rather look at the past cities and make sure that nurturing the culture is no less important than acquiring the best advanced weapons. We need to keep the lights on for cultural cities.
 

At the dictators’ table, Erdogan is part of the furniture
Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/April 11/ 2021
There has been widespread uproar at what was seen as misogynistic and insulting treatment meted out by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
At a meeting in Ankara last week, hosted by Erdogan for von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel, the European Commission chief was left without a chair. She was visibly taken aback when the two men sat on the only two chairs available, relegating her to an adjacent sofa. Video footage of the incident has elicited thousands of anti-Erdogan comments on social media, where it has been dubbed “SofaGate.”
No woman, let alone the European Commission’s first female president, should be on the receiving end of such thoughtless, shameful and disgraceful behavior.
Turkey’s defense? Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu argued that the seating arrangements had been discussed and agreed with the EU ambassador in Ankara — who, like von der Leyen, is German. Nevertheless, the incident is a symptom of a deeply rooted disrespect for women within the Turkish establishment, regardless of whether the foreign minister’s claims are true.
Frankly, what has shocked me is that anyone was shocked in the first place. With all due respect to feminists and human rights activist in Brussels and across Europe, what did you expect from the Erdogan regime?
The discourtesy toward von der Lyen came less than a month after Erdogan pulled Turkey out of a key European convention aimed at combating violence against women — a convention signed, of all ironies, in Istanbul, and which Turkey was the first to ratify in 2012. If that withdrawal wasn’t a hint of what to expect, what would be?
For his part, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi was livid at the “mistreatment” of von der Leyen, and went so far as to call Erdogan a dictator. “With these dictators, let’s call them what they are...” he said. “I absolutely do not agree with Erdogan’s behavior toward President von der Leyen … I think it was not appropriate behavior and I was very sorry for the humiliation von der Leyen had to suffer.”
My issue with the Italian prime minister’s statement is, has he only just discovered that the Erdogan regime has transformed Turkey into a dictatorship? Was the arrest or suspension of nearly 45,000 military officials, judges, civil servants and school teachers in 2016 not enough of an indicator?
What happened to Ursula von der Leyen will not be the end of such disrespectful behavior, and what is happening to the Turkish opposition and to all those who dare to differ from Erdogan is only the thin end of the wedge. It will continue to happen until Europe and the world resolve to call him out for what he is.
According to the Turkish justice ministry, a total of 128,872 investigations were launched in the past six years over “insulting the president,” of which 27,717 led to criminal prosecutions, and 9,556 to sentences of imprisonment. In this period, 903 young people between the ages of 12 and 17 were put on trial on the same “charge.”
As for suggestions that what happened with von der Lyen was “insulting to Europe” — I wonder if critics have noticed Turkey’s continued intimidation of Cyprus and Greece in the eastern Mediterranean.
Only on Saturday, Ankara accused Athens of supporting terrorist cells — another irony of ironies. This comes from a country that has harbored, patronized and promoted extremists of all stripes, ready to use in theaters of war from Libya to Somalia and Syria to Iraq.
Then there is Erdogan’s tactic of resorting to blackmail, which he has honed almost to perfection. Every time Europe vows to bring him to heel for another indiscretion, whether it is illegally campaigning for votes among Turkish expatriates in Germany or encroaching on Greek territorial waters in the hunt for oil and gas deposits, the Turkish president threatens to open the floodgates of refugees into Europe. This is even greater cause for action to be taken against Turkey. Waves of refugees are a threat not just to European security and stability, and not just to European economies, but to the European Union’s core values.
What happened to Ursula von der Leyen will not be the end of such disrespectful behavior, and what is happening to the Turkish opposition and to all those who dare to differ from Erdogan is only the thin end of the wedge. It will continue to happen until Europe and the world resolve to call him out for what he is.
When you invite a monster to the table, the least of your problems is a missing chair.
• Faisal J. Abbas is editor in chief of Arab News. Twitter: @FaisalJAbbas