English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For September 29/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Because you have kept my word of patient endurance, I will keep you from the hour of trial that is coming on the whole world
Book of Revelation 03/07-13/:”‘To the angel of the church in Philadelphia write: These are the words of the holy one, the true one, who has the key of David, who opens and no one will shut,who shuts and no one opens: ‘I know your works. Look, I have set before you an open door, which no one is able to shut. I know that you have but little power, and yet you have kept my word and have not denied my name. I will make those of the synagogue of Satan who say that they are Jews and are not, but are lying I will make them come and bow down before your feet, and they will learn that I have loved you. Because you have kept my word of patient endurance, I will keep you from the hour of trial that is coming on the whole world to test the inhabitants of the earth. I am coming soon; hold fast to what you have, so that no one may seize your crown. If you conquer, I will make you a pillar in the temple of my God; you will never go out of it. I will write on you the name of my God, and the name of the city of my God, the new Jerusalem that comes down from my God out of heaven, and my own new name. Let anyone who has an ear listen to what the Spirit is saying to the churches.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 28-29/2020

Aoun Voices ‘Adherence’ to French Initiative, Regrets Failed Govt Formation
Report: No Date Yet for Binding Consultations to Choose Lebanese PM
Report: French President, Saudi Crown Prince Discuss Overdue Lebanon Govt
Berri Schedules Legislative Session for Wednesday-Thursday
Hizbullah's al-Manar TV Hits Back at Macron
Khalil Says No Current Talks on Govt.
EU Voices 'Disappointment, Concern' over Adib's Resignation
Lebanon Hits Back at Israel at U.N. Human Rights Council
Lebanese Foreign Ministry Urges Diplomacy between Armenia, Azerbaijan
Suit Filed against ex-Education Ministers, Others over 'Corruption'
After Cabinet Fiasco, Where to Now for Lebanon?
One in Four Beirut Children Could Miss School after Blast, Says IRC
Lebanese parties silent after harsh criticism from Emmanuel Macron/Sunniva Rose/The National/September 28/2020
Hezbollah’s History with Ammonium Nitrate: The Danger to Europe/Toby Dershowitz and Dylan Gresik/FDD/September 28/2020
Le Liban, de l’État mafieux à l’État-Lige et l’entre-deux/Charles Elias Chartouni/September 28/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 28-29/2020

Tankers carrying Iranian fuel begin entering Venezuelan waters: Data
Father of Iranian protester sentenced to death dies by suicide
UK's Johnson raises concerns with Turkey's Erdogan over east Med tensions
At least 5 civilians killed in rocket fire near Baghdad airport: Army
Libyans need to turn foreign interference into foreign assistance: UN envoy
Is Netanyahu in the running for the Nobel Peace Prize?
Saudi Arabia foils terrorist cell trained by Iran's Revolutionary Guard
US will close Iraq embassy unless government secures Green Zone, sources say
Trump tax revelations spark outrage among some, but supporters defend president
Karabakh Clashes Kill 28 More Armenian Separatists
Erdogan Tells Armenia to End 'Occupation' of Karabakh
 

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 28-29/2020

US warns Iraq on Iranian-backed militias/Laurie Mylroie/Kurdistan 24/September 28/2020
Trump succeeded where the UN failed/Richard Goldberg/Washington Examiner/September 28/ 2020
As UN celebrates 75th anniversary, dictators still dominate/Tzvi Kahn/Washington Examiner/September 28/ 2020
Reforming Tokyo’s Ballistic Missile Defense is a Priority for Japan’s New Prime Minister/Mathew Ha/The National Interest/September 28/2020
Pushing Back on Iraqi Militias: Weighing U.S. Options/Michael Knights/The Washington Institute/September 28/2020
Iran FM demands protection for diplomatic missions in Iraq/AFP/September 28/ 2020
Is Turkey planning to recruit Syrians to fight Armenia?/Seth J.Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/September 28/2020
Iran is approaching a boiling point and the regime is ready with bloodshed/Amir Toumaj/Alarabiya/Monday 28 September 2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 28-29/2020

Aoun Voices ‘Adherence’ to French Initiative, Regrets Failed Govt Formation
Naharnet/Monday 28 September 2020
President Michel Aoun expressed adherence to the French initiative during talks with French Ambassador to Lebanon Bruno Faucher, and regretted that PM-designate Mustafa Adib was unable to form a government, the National News Agency reported on Monday. NNA said Aoun hailed the "interest shown by French President Emmanuel Macron towards Lebanon and the Lebanese."The President sounded regret that Adib was unable to form the new government according to the principles of the French President’s initiative, especially with regard to the reforms that need to take place, reported NNA.
Aoun thanked Faucher for the efforts he made during his stay to strengthen the Lebanese-French relations in all fields, wishing him success in his new diplomatic mission. Faucher is on a farewell visit to Baabda concluding his three-year term in Lebanon. In recognition of this, President Aoun awarded Faucher the National Order of the Cedar in the rank of Senior Officer.

Report: No Date Yet for Binding Consultations to Choose Lebanese PM
Naharnet/Monday 28 September 2020
There is no date scheduled yet for the binding consultations between the President and parliamentary blocs to choose a new Lebanese prime minister, media reports said Monday. Sources following up closely on the government file said the President did not schedule a close date for consultations. PM-designate Mustafa Adib stepped down Saturday amid a Cabinet impasse. The two main Shiite parties, Hizbullah and its ally Amal, led by parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, had insisted on retaining the foreign ministry in the new government and on naming all the Shiite Cabinet ministers. “What happened with Adib set new frameworks to approach the government file. The President will study the next step according to the constitutional mechanism,” said the sources.

Report: French President, Saudi Crown Prince Discuss Overdue Lebanon Govt
Naharnet/Monday 28 September 2020
French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly spoke over the phone on the government stalemate in Lebanon before Macron’s press conference, RT international television reported Monday. RT said that Macron and Salman discussed the cabinet deadlock, reportedly suggesting the name of ex-PM Saad Hariri as “a point of agreement” to lead the next cabinet, and “stressing the need to solve the Lebanese crisis.”It said the French President “did not at all mention anything about his talks with Salman during his press conference" Sunday. Meanwhile, Hariri announced that he is not a candidate for the PM post following the resignation of PM-designate Mustafa Adib. Macron upped the pressure on Lebanon's leaders to form a government in the wake of the Beirut port blast, saying their lack of progress represented a "collective betrayal".At a rare news conference devoted to Lebanon on Sunday, he launched an extraordinary diatribe against a Lebanese political elite who he said had looked to their own selfish interests rather than those of their country. Political parties had pledged in early September, during a visit to Lebanon by Macron, to form within two weeks a cabinet of independent ministers tasked with ending the country's economic malaise.

Berri Schedules Legislative Session for Wednesday-Thursday
Naharnet/Monday 28 September 2020
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Monday scheduled a legislative session for Wednesday and Thursday .The session, which will be held at parliament’s temporary venue at the UNESCO Palace, will discuss 40 draft laws, including those related to general amnesty and illicit enriching.The session will also tackle an urgent draft law calling for lifting bank secrecy off the accounts of “anyone who has worked in public affairs since 1990.”

Hizbullah's al-Manar TV Hits Back at Macron
Associated Press/Monday 28 September 2020
Hizbullah's al-Manar TV blasted French President Emmanuel Macron in its main news editorial Monday night, telling him that Hizbullah "is and will remain an army facing Israel and will keep supporting Syria and its people against extremists."It added that Hizbullah and its allies are not to blame for PM-designate Mustafa Adib's failure in forming a Cabinet, saying that Macron's threats of possible sanctions in the future against politicians are "unjustified and unacceptable."Al-Manar also asked whether Macron wants Hizbullah and its allies, who have majority seats in Parliament, to give power to groups allied with the United States.Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is scheduled to make a televised address on the developments at 8:30 pm Tuesday. At a rare news conference devoted to Lebanon on Sunday, Macron had warned that Hizbullah should "not think it is more powerful than it is." "It must show that it respects all the Lebanese. And in recent days days, it has clearly shown the opposite," said Macron. "Hizbullah cannot be an army in a war against Israel and a militia taking part in Syria's war and still be a respectable party in Lebanon," he said. "Amal and Hizbullah decided that nothing should change in Lebanon and I understood that Hizbullah did not honor the pledge it made to me," the French leader added. Macron did not limit his sharp criticism to Hizbullah, saying none of the leaders of Lebanon had been up to the task. "All of them bet on the worst case scenario for the sake of saving themselves, the interests of their family or their clan," he seethed. "I therefore have decided to take note of this collective betrayal and the refusal of Lebanese officials to engage in good faith," Macron added. The French leader also said that ex-PM Saad Hariri "erred by adding a sectarian factor to the roadmap" of forming a new government.

Khalil Says No Current Talks on Govt.
Naharnet/Monday 28 September 2020
MP Ali Hassan Khalil of Amal Movement's Development and Liberation parliamentary bloc, said currently there were no talks about a new government in Lebanon, after the resignation of PM-designate Mustafa Adib over a Cabinet impasse. The MP added that President Michel Aoun and Speaker Nabih Berri could hold discussions on the matter. “Nothing prevents talks between President Michel Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri,” he said. On French President Emmanuel Macron’s press conference, Berri’s aide, Khalil said: “We have no comments to say about the French president's press conference. The agreed initiative is there in writing and was distributed and everyone one knows what it states.”Macron on Sunday blasted Hizbullah and Amal Movement, criticized ex-PM Saad Hariri’s conduct in the cabinet formation negotiations and said Lebanese parties now have four to six weeks to form a new government or face “a different approach.”Macron said the political elite had decided "to betray" their obligations and had committed "collective treason" by failing to form a government. "Amal and Hizbullah decided that nothing should change in Lebanon and I understood that Hizbullah did not honor the pledge it made to me. The failure is their failure and I don't bear its responsibility,” Macron said. Adib was set to form a mission government of experts, but his efforts were effectively blocked by the Shiite duo’s conditions to name the Shiite ministers in the cabinet.

EU Voices 'Disappointment, Concern' over Adib's Resignation
Associated Press/Monday 28 September 2020
The European Union expressed "disappointment and concern" Monday about the resignation of Lebanon's prime minister-designate over the weekend and urged the country's leaders to do their best to form a Cabinet that meets the demands of the people.Mustafa Adib's resignation during a political impasse came amid Lebanon's worst economic and financial crisis in decades -- made worse by a massive explosion in Beirut in early August that killed and wounded many and caused widespread damage. Adib, who handed in his resignation Saturday, nearly a month after winning majority support from the Parliament, left Beirut early Monday to return to his post as Lebanon's ambassador to Germany. Adib's resignation was a blow to French President Emmanuel Macron's efforts to break a dangerous stalemate in the crisis-hit country. Macron assailed Iran-backed Hizbullah and the entire Lebanese political class Sunday, and warned of a new civil war if they can't set aside personal and religious interests to unlock international aid and save Lebanon from economic collapse. Macron has been pressing Lebanese politicians to form a Cabinet made up of non-partisan specialists that can work on enacting urgent reforms to extract Lebanon from a devastating economic and financial crisis. The European Union's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, urged Lebanon's leaders to "unite and do their utmost for the timely formation of a government that must be able to meet the legitimate needs and demands of the Lebanese people."
Borrell said the new Cabinet should be "committed to address Lebanon's acute and multiple challenges -- notably its humanitarian, socio-economic and financial crises, the coronavirus pandemic and the reconstruction of Beirut."
He underlined the EU's continued support for Lebanon and its people. The international community has repeatedly said that Lebanon will not get financial aid before carrying out reforms to end decades of corruption and mismanagement by the ruling class that brought the tiny country to the verge of bankruptcy.
Macron on Sunday accused Lebanon's political leaders of "collective betrayal" and choosing "to favor their partisan and individual interests to the general detriment of the country."Lebanon's two main Shiite parties, Hizbullah and ally Amal, led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, had insisted on retaining the Finance Ministry in the new government and on naming all the Shiite Cabinet ministers. Adib rejected those conditions and stepped down. On Monday, the dollar was trading at 8,200 pounds on the black market, an 8% drop by the local currency since Adib's resignation. The official rate remains 1,507 pounds to the dollar. The crisis is expected to worsen as the central bank's reserves are being depleted in what could force the government in the coming months to end subsidies for medicine and fuel, sharply increasing their prices.
Lebanon defaulted on paying back its debt for the first time ever in March. Talks with the International Monetary Fund on a bailout package have stalled.
The crisis has been compounded by the coronavirus pandemic and more recently by the Aug. 4 explosion at Beirut's port caused by the detonation of thousands of tons of ammonium nitrates. It killed nearly 200 people, injured thousands and caused losses worth billions of dollars.

Lebanon Hits Back at Israel at U.N. Human Rights Council
Naharnet/Monday 28 September 2020
Lebanon’s permanent mission to the U.N. in Geneva on Monday responded to remarks voiced by Israel’s envoy at a session for the U.N. Human Rights Council. In a statement, the Foreign Ministry said “the mission used its right to respond to the Israeli enemy’s envoy, as has been the case whenever there is an attack on Lebanon and its right to resistance.”In its response, the mission described Israel as “an occupation force armed with the fiercest weapons and in possession of a nuclear arsenal with which it threatens its neighbors.”“It has a history rife with severe human rights violations and with committing international crimes, in Lebanon and in other Arab territories that it occupied. The international community should one day carry out its duty in prosecuting the perpetrators… and today we are marking the 38th anniversary of the Sabra and Shatila massacre, one of the ugliest crimes against humanity in modern history,” the mission added. “Lebanon stresses its right to resistance to liberate its land and defend its sovereignty, which is represented in the constitutional institutions that reflect the will of the Lebanese people, of which the Lebanese Hizbullah, one of the resistance movements, is an inseparable part,” the mission went on to say. It also hit back at the Israeli envoy over remarks related to the August 4 explosion at Beirut port. “The occupation force has sought to put itself in the position of the Lebanese judicial authority in the issue of the port blast, in which investigations have not yet been completed,” the mission said.
“The hypothesis of a foreign plot should not be ruled out, and in this case, this (occupation) force will be the main suspect,” the mission added.

Lebanese Foreign Ministry Urges Diplomacy between Armenia, Azerbaijan
Naharnet/Monday 28 September 2020
Lebanon “regrets the eruption of hostilities in the region of Nagorny Karabakh and calls for resolving this issue through diplomatic means,” the Foreign Ministry said on Monday. In a statement, the Ministry said Lebanon’s stance is based on “the principle of nations’ regional safety and non-interference in internal affairs, in line with the U.N. Charter.” “In this regard, Lebanon joins the U.N. secretary general in calling on the parties concerned to pacify the situation and refrain from escalation,” the statement added. Lebanon supports “the efforts aimed at reaching a solution through diplomatic means and dialogue and welcomes the efforts of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe,” the statement said. Fierce fighting raged between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces on Monday, sparking bellicose rhetoric from regional power Turkey despite international pleas for a halt in fighting between the longtime enemies.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a territorial dispute over the ethnic Armenian region of Nagorny Karabakh for decades, with deadly fighting flaring up earlier this year and in 2016. The region declared its independence from Azerbaijan after a war in the early 1990s that claimed 30,000 lives but is not recognized by any country -- including Armenia -- and is still considered part of Azerbaijan by the international community. Fighting between Muslim Azerbaijan and majority-Christian Armenia could embroil regional players such as Russia, which has a military alliance with Armenia, and Turkey, which backs Azerbaijan.

Suit Filed against ex-Education Ministers, Others over 'Corruption'
Naharnet/Monday 28 September 2020
The lawyers Bassem Hamad and Nadim Qawbar on Monday filed a lawsuit against ex-education minister Elias Bou Saab, the former education ministers, ex-head of the Center for Educational Research and Development Nada Oueijan and Lebanese University chief Fouad Ayoub. The lawsuit accuses the officials and ex-officials of corruption charges in connection with the latest allegations made by caretaker Education Minister Tarek al-Majzoub during an interview on al-Jadeed TV. Majzoub “detailed violations and offenses committed at the Education Ministry,” the lawsuit says. It calls for “prosecuting the aforementioned individuals over the offenses of embezzling and wasting public funds, bribery, job exploitation, abuse of power, intimidation and others.”

After Cabinet Fiasco, Where to Now for Lebanon?
Agence France Presse/Monday 28 September 2020
With Lebanon already mired in multiple crises, where does the failure to form a government despite intense international pressure leave the country? Lebanon is grappling with its worst economic crunch in decades, and still reeling from a colossal blast at the capital's port on August 4 that killed more than 190 people, injured thousands, and ravaged large parts of Beirut. France earlier this month extracted a promise from political forces that they would help prime minister-designate Mustapha Adib draw up a cabinet within a fortnight, but on Saturday he threw in the towel. Is there a new deadline?French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday gave Lebanese leaders another "four to six weeks" to form a crisis government of independents as a prerequisite to much-needed financial aid. "It now is up to Lebanese leaders to seize this last chance," he said. President Michel Aoun, who on Monday said he still stood by the French initiative, must now consult parliamentary blocs on the choice of a new premier-designate, before that candidate can even start trying to form a cabinet. This is often a drawn-out process in Lebanon, where a complex power-sharing system seeks to maintain a fragile balance between its various political and religious sides. In practice, main political forces usually agree on a new prime minister even before the president names him. And similarly, they back a cabinet line-up even before the premier-designate announces it. "This will take quite a bit of time," said Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Centre. This was bad news for a debt-ridden country desperately in need of restarting stalled talks with the International Monetary Fund towards saving its crumbling economy.
"Meanwhile we're left with a caretaker government that really cannot take any decisions... and certainly cannot negotiate with the IMF on an economic recovery plan," she said. What of Hezbollah?Adib's efforts were largely hampered by the country's two Shiite movements, Hezbollah and Amal, demanding the finance portfolio and insisting on naming Shiite ministers themselves. Macron on Sunday said Hezbollah, Tehran's proxy in Lebanon, should "not think it is more powerful than it is". "It must show that it respects all the Lebanese -- and in recent days, it has clearly shown the opposite," he said.
Iran on Monday said it was in touch with France, and supported French efforts towards helping Lebanon if they were well-intentioned. "We are in touch with different Lebanese groups directly and continuously, and we hope that we can help resolve this issue," a foreign ministry spokesman said. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah is set to speak on Tuesday. Does this mean no humanitarian aid?By the end of October, whether or not there is a government, France will however hold a new aid conference with the United Nations.
The humanitarian assistance will be funnelled "directly to the population solely through non-governmental organisations on the ground and the United Nations", Macron said. During a first French-UN video conference on August 9, just days after the Beirut blast, the international community already pledged around $300 million in emergency aid. But a political meeting with Lebanese leaders, originally also scheduled for October, has been scrapped. Instead Macron said he would gather members of the international community within the next 20 days to re-examine a roadmap for the country, and lay out their conditions for support to Lebanon. They would also "urge that the results of the probe on the causes of the August 4 explosion be finally established and made public, and that those responsible be named," he said. Lebanon has refused an international investigation into the explosion of hundreds of tonnes of ammonium nitrate on the dockside. But it has launched its own probe aided by international experts, arresting 25 people, including top customs and port officials. Macron, who has twice visited the former French protectorate since the August 4 explosion, earlier this month said he would return to Lebanon in December. But it was not immediately clear if that was still planned. Is Lebanon hell-bound?Last week, President Michel Aoun warned Lebanon was headed to "hell" if no new cabinet was rapidly hammered out. Prices have soared in recent months, and poverty has risen to more than half the population.
Analyst Karim Bitar said Lebanon likely had a rough ride ahead. "Even if Lebanon is not hell-bound, we will probably witness... the weakening of public institutions, a worsening of the economic crisis... and a wave of emigration," he said. "Lebanon could empty itself of... its middle class, to end up with an oligarchy clinging on to power and the impoverishment of those who stay behind."

One in Four Beirut Children Could Miss School after Blast, Says IRC
Agence France Presse/Monday 28 September 2020
A quarter of school-age children in Lebanon's capital risk missing out on school after last month's deadly port explosion, the International Rescue Committee aid group warned Monday. "With 163 schools damaged by the Beirut explosion, at least 1 in 4 children in the city are now at risk of missing out on their education," it said in a statement. IRC said the estimations were based on the impact of the blast alone, and did not take into account that of the novel coronavirus pandemic. "Over 85,000 pupils were registered at the schools damaged by the blasts and it will take up to a year for the most severely damaged buildings to be repaired," it added. The massive explosion of a stockpile of ammonium nitrate at Beirut port on August 4 killed more than 190 people, wounded thousands more and ravaged buildings in surrounding residential neighbourhoods. It was a devastating to blow to a country already facing its worst economic crisis in decades and series of lockdowns aimed at stemming the spread of Covid-19. IRC said the slow pace of rebuilding, parent concerns over the cost and safety of transport to alternative schools, and children being sent to work to help their struggling families could all keep pupils out of class.
"Overall, we are expecting to see far fewer children enrolled in schools this September and a high drop-out rate as the year progresses," said the aid group's acting Lebanon director Mohammad Nasser. Schools in Lebanon have not yet re-opened over a spike in coronavirus cases, which have risen in the wake of the explosion to more than 35,000 infections including at least 340 deaths since February.

Lebanese parties silent after harsh criticism from Emmanuel Macron
Sunniva Rose/The National/September 28/2020
President Michel Aoun affirms commitment to France's rescue efforts despite Emmanuel Macron accusing Lebanese leaders of 'collective betrayal'.
Lebanese politicians responded cautiously on Monday to French President Emmanuel Macron’s accusations of “collective betrayal” after they failed to form a reformist government despite their promises to quickly address the country’s multiple crises.
President Michel Aoun reaffirmed his support for Mr Macron’s efforts to help the country during a meeting with French ambassador to Lebanon Bruno Foucher, noting France’s “concern for Lebanon and the Lebanese”, the state-run National News Agency reported.
President Aoun said he “regretted” prime minister-designate Mustafa Adib’s failure to form a cabinet. Nominated on August 31, nearly three weeks after the resignation of the former government in the wake of the deadly August 4 blast at Beirut port that killed nearly 200 people, Mr Adib stepped down on Saturday as political parties insisted on controlling key portfolios.
President Aoun is expected to reconvene parliament to discuss a new candidate for the premiership, but Lebanese media reported that binding consultations had not begun yet on Monday. President Macron on Sunday gave Lebanese leaders another “four to six weeks” to form a cabinet.
Parliament is scheduled to meet on Wednesday and Thursday to discuss 40 draft laws, including controversial and repeatedly postponed legislation to fight corruption and lift banking secrecy.
President Macron blasted the entire Lebanese political class in a press conference on Sunday, saying they had not respected their promise to form an independent government within 15 days of his second visit to Lebanon in less than a month on September 1.
The Beirut port explosion deepened Lebanon’s existing woes, which include hyperinflation, record-high unemployment, de facto capital controls in addition to a rapid devaluation of the currency by about 80 per cent.
“I take note that Lebanese political forces made the choice to preserve their partisan and individual interests at the expense of the country’s interest,” said Mr Macron, speaking from the Elysee Palace.
“I am ashamed for your leaders. I am ashamed,” he said in response to a Lebanese journalist’s question, and highlighted the risk of civil war if the political deadlock continued.
“Every day that passes makes finding an agreement more difficult. Every day that passes increases chances of a flare-up of violence,” he said.
President Macron accused Lebanon’s two Shiite parties, Iran-backed Hezbollah and its local ally Amal, of torpedoing the negotiations to form a government. Amal insisted on having a party loyalist at the head of the Finance Ministry, which it has controlled since 2014.
“Hezbollah cannot operate at the same time as an army against Israel, a militia unleashed against civilians in Syria and a respectable political party in Lebanon,” President Macron said.
“Today, the question is really in the hands of [Amal leader Nabih] Berri and Hezbollah: 'Do you want the worst-case scenario or do you want to engage the Shiite camp towards democracy, in the interest of Lebanon?'” asked President Macron.
There was no response from either party on Monday. Former finance minister and Amal member Ali Hassan Khalil, who was sanctioned by the US government for corruption and material support to Hezbollah on September 8, told local television network LBCI that he had “no comments on what was stated in the conference of the French president”.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is expected to respond to President Macron’s accusations in a speech on Tuesday evening. The US considers Hezbollah to be a terrorist organisation, but France makes a distinction between its military and political wing.
Lebanon’s Jaafarite Mufti Ahmad Kabalan, who is traditionally aligned Hezbollah, said on Monday that President Macron’s words were a “grave political injustice”.
“We are very open to the French initiative, but we will not accept anything less that what is in the nation’s interest, and threats are shameful. Our doubts are growing,” he said, according to the NNA.
Lebanese daily Al Akhbar, which is sympathetic to Hezbollah, wrote on Monday that the French president had “joined Washington and Riyadh”, in reference to their hardline approach to the Iran-backed party, and described Mr Macron's tone as “insolent”.
The newspaper claimed that Mr Adib did not resign because of Amal’s insistence on controlling the finance ministry but because of “America’s determination to keep Hezbollah out of the government”.
The European Union joined France in expressing its “disappointment” and “concern” at the political deadlock in Lebanon, stating on Monday that politicians “must unite and do their utmost for the timely formation of a government”.
 

Hezbollah’s History with Ammonium Nitrate: The Danger to Europe
Toby Dershowitz and Dylan Gresik/FDD/September 28/2020

http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/90810/%d8%aa%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%ae-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d9%87-%d9%85%d8%b9-%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%88%d9%85-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ae/
Ambassador Nathan Sales, U.S. coordinator for counterterrorism at the Department of State, announced last week that Hezbollah has transported and stored ammonium nitrate throughout Europe. While the disclosure is newsworthy, it also seems consistent with known Hezbollah practices. Thus, while France and Spain responded that they had no evidence to support Sales’ assertion with respect to their own countries, they did not deny that the terrorist group has transported and stored ammonium nitrate on European soil in the past.
“Since 2012,” Sales stated, “Hizballah has established caches of ammonium nitrate throughout Europe by transporting first aid kits whose cold packs contain the substance. I can reveal that such caches have been moved through Belgium, to France, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. I can also reveal that significant ammonium nitrate caches have been discovered or destroyed in France, Greece, and Italy. We have reason to believe that this activity is still underway. As of 2018, ammonium nitrate caches were still suspected throughout Europe, possibly in Greece, Italy, and Spain.”
Addressing Sales’ declarations, Agnes von der Muhll, the French foreign ministry spokeswoman, said, “To our knowledge, there is nothing tangible to confirm such an allegation in France today.” She added, “Any illegal activity committed by a foreign organisation on our territory would be sanctioned by the French authorities with the greatest firmness.” The Spanish embassy in Washington said, “The Spanish authorities have no evidence to suggest that the armed wing of Hezbollah introduced or stored chemicals in Spain for the manufacture of explosives.”
Regardless of whether European officials were parsing Sales’ words or had other reasons for their statements, what is clear is that other European authorities have established that Hezbollah has stored and transported ammonium nitrate on European soil. According to Cypriot authorities, for example, Hezbollah has previously amassed large numbers of first-aid kits to smuggle the bomb-making ingredient into countries.
In 2015 alone, authorities seized over three metric tons of ammonium nitrate stored in London and over eight tons that were guarded by a Hezbollah operative in Cyprus.
According to Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East policy, “[I]nvestigators believe the explosives used in the 2012 Burgas, Bulgaria bus bombing may have come from the batch of chemicals stored in Cyprus.” In addition, Bulgarian press reported on September 24 that a Lebanese-Bulgarian national imported 40 boxes of first-aid kits, each containing 160 grams of ammonium nitrate, shortly before the attack took place. Authorities said the bomb used consisted of ammonium nitrate equivalent to 3 kilograms of TNT. Five Israeli tourists and their Bulgarian bus driver were killed in the attack.
Hezbollah, designated a terrorist entity by 15 countries, the Arab League, and the Gulf Cooperation Council, also used ammonium nitrate in the 1994 bombing of Argentina’s AMIA Jewish community center that killed 85 people.
During the same online event where Sales made his announcement, German Federal Interior Ministry official Hans-Georg Engelke confirmed the seizure of “ammonium nitrate, in substantial amounts, in southern Germany.” After the raid, in April 2020, Germany designated Hezbollah in its entirety as a terrorist entity. Since the massive August 5 explosion in Lebanon, caused by improperly stored ammonium nitrate, French President Emmanuel Macron has presented Lebanese officials with a list of proposed reforms, including the formation of a new government, central bank auditing, and international oversight of aid. But France has been reticent about pushing Hezbollah too hard, for fear of losing influence over the direction of Lebanon’s recovery.
The path forward in aiding the Lebanese people – and protecting Europe – should not entail bowing to and accommodating Hezbollah. What remains clear is that Hezbollah remains a profound present danger to Europe today.
*Toby Dershowitz is senior vice president for government relations and strategy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD),
*Dylan Gresik is a government relations analyst. For more analysis from Toby, Dylan, and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Toby and Dylan on Twitter @tobydersh and @DylanGresik. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD. FDD is a non-partisan think tank focused on national security and foreign policy.

Le Liban, de l’État mafieux à l’État-Lige et l’entre-deux
Charles Elias Chartouni/September 28/2020
شارل الياس الشرتوني: لبنان من دولة المافيا إلى الدولة الرهينة وما بينهما
L’échec de la démarche présidentielle française loin d’échoir au Président français ne fait que valider les apories d’un contexte politique pâtissant de dislocations structurelles, et entièrement assujetti aux aléas d’une région en état d’implosion généralisée. Cet état de déliquescence loin d’être inédit arrive à terme et ne fait qu’entériner la fin d’un pays qui n’a pas cessé, depuis six décennies, de vivre d’intermèdes et de procurations indéfiniment renouvelés sans grands résultats. La présidence française nous a offert l’ultime opportunité afin de sauver ce qui reste de cette république décharnée, éviter les déboires de guerres renouvelées ( civile et autres ), et mettre à profit ce temps de trêve, mutuellement consenti, afin de résoudre les graves problèmes qui ont résulté de cet état de délitement prolongé. La configuration des négociations qui étaient en cours, la texture des acteurs politiques en lice, et leurs ancrages extra-territoriaux confirment une fois de plus les verrouillages oligarchiques, les hypothèques des politiques de puissance ( Iran, Turquie, Arabie Saoudite, Qatar.... ), et la complicité des caïds chiite et sunnite locaux et leurs acolytes en milieu chrétien, comme cela a été dûment souligné par Emmanuel Macron lors de la conférence de presse qui a succédée à la démission du premier ministre Moustapha Adib, qui s’est décemment rétracté, contrairement à son prédécesseur Hassan Diab, le commissaire effronté du Hezbollah.
Lorsque le Président français crie à la trahison, il fait explicitement référence à l’absence, non seulement, d’une éthique politique minimale dans cet espace de brigandage qu’est devenu le Liban, mais aux déficits normatifs d’une république qui évolue dans des vides emboîtés sans fin. Le Président français, loin de toute naïveté, faisait appel au bon sens des oligarchies politiques dont il connaissait les tares, afin de les dissuader d’emprunter la voie des impasses diligemment construites sur la base de leurs intérêts et desseins destructeurs de toutes formes de sociabilité politique, de liens civiques, et d’éventuelle appartenance à une collectivité nationale. Le sentiment de honte qu’il a exprimé à leur endroit et sa condamnation explicite et indistincte de leur délinquance financière et morale, étaient doublés de constats sur l’ambiguïté des positionnements du Hezbollah qui évoluaient sur un continuum entre des engagements militaires qui remettaient en question la paix régionale ( Israël ), la paix civile ( Liban, Syrie ) et les simulacres du jeu démocratique dans le cadre des fictions juridiques de l’État libanais mis en coupe réglée par les partenariats oligarchiques. L’insistance dont fait état la présidence française relève, sans vergogne, de l’engagement moral vis à vis d’un pays auquel la France a partie liée, des intérêts stratégiques d’une Europe qui subit les effets disruptifs d’un Moyen Orient défait, des aléas représentés par les impérialismes islamiques déchaînés du bassin méditerranéen jusqu’aux limes du Caucase ( le renouvellement de la guerre dans le Nagorno-Karabach/ Artsakh ), et des vagues migratoires qui ne font que compliquer la donne stratégique au sein des pays de la CEE, et profiter aux entrepreneurs de l’Islamisme dans toutes ses variantes sunnite et chiite.
Le nouveau moratoire fixé par le Président français devrait être assorti d’une politique d’endiguement à géométrie variable, de conditionalités politiques fermes, de sanctions financière et économique, et d’engagement diplomatique sinueux. Sinon, Emmanuel Macron a explicitement fait part de son appréhension vis à vis des dangers que le Hezbollah et son associé-rival faisaient encourir à la communauté chiite de par les engrenages conflictuels qu’ils ont institués sur la toile géopolitique Moyen orientale ( Liban, Syrie, Iraq, Yemen, Arabie Saoudite, Pays du Golfe .... ). La démarche française est un pari sur la raison d’État dans une région où les concepts d’État et a fortiori d’État de droit, sont des notions creuses qui renvoient aux rivalités tribales et aux codifications jurisprudentielles de l’islam scripturaire et ses représentations mentales. Néanmoins, le détour est obligé surtout que les périodes de grâce s’amenuisent au gré des jours, et les conflits qui se profilent à l’horizon auront un temps de déploiement dans la durée.
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 28-29/2020

Tankers carrying Iranian fuel begin entering Venezuelan waters: Data
Reuters/Tuesday 29 September 2020
The first of a group of three tankers carrying Iranian fuel for gasoline-starved Venezuela entered the waters of the South American nation on Monday, according to Refinitiv Eikon data, in the most recent sign of the countries' expanding trade.
The two OPEC members have increased cooperation this year by exchanging crude, fuel, food, equipment for refineries and other industrial goods. Many details about the transactions are not available. The Iran-flagged tanker Forest, transporting some 270,000 barrels of fuel loaded in the Middle East, entered Venezuela's exclusive economic zone around 8:05 a.m. EDT (1205 GMT) to approach state-run PDVSA's El Palito port later in the day. The vessel crossed the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea without any disturbances, according to the data. The two following Iranian tankers, the Faxon and the Fortune, are covering the same route, with estimated dates of arrival in early October. Although both countries are under tough US sanctions, Washington has not moved to intercept the vessels, which made a previous fuel deliveries to Venezuela from May through June. The United States in July seized a group of Iranian cargoes aboard privately owned vessels bound for Venezuela through a civil forfeiture case. The fuel is expected to be auctioned soon, with the proceeds going to the U. Victims of State Sponsored Terrorism Fund. Following a virtual meeting between officials of both governments on Monday to discuss trade, Venezuela's foreign minister, Jorge Arreaza, said in a statement that Iran had masterly overcome the "unilateral punitive measures" against it. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whose 2018 re-election was not recognized by most Western nations, aims to form a coalition of countries affected by unilateral sanctions, Arreaza added.
'We are helping them'
Yahya Rahim-Safavi, former chief commander of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), told reporters on Sunday that Iran helped "every Muslim and non-Muslim country" that asks for assistance. He said Iran received gold bars in exchange for the gasoline previously delivered to Venezuela, sent by airplane "so that nothing would happen to it.""(The Venezuelans) have stood up to the Americans, and we are helping them, giving them software and giving them ideas, such as how to mobilize the people and how to repel cyberattacks," he added. Venezuela's state-run oil company, PDVSA, and the Oil Ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment. The Forest, Faxon and Fortune are together expected to deliver about 820,000 barrels of gasoline and other fuels, helping to ease shortages in Venezuela. More than 100 demonstrations - mostly peaceful - were held from Saturday through Monday to protest the lack of power, water, gasoline and other basic services, a Venezuelan NGO that oversees social conflict said on Twitter. Another organization reported that 31 people had been detained in recent days after similar protests. Separately, an Iranian very large crude carrier (VLCC) is expected to leave this week from Venezuela's Jose port with 1.9 million barrels of Venezuelan heavy oil for the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), according to a source and PDVSA loading schedules. The NIOC did not respond to questions about the plan.

Father of Iranian protester sentenced to death dies by suicide
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya EnglishMonday 28 September 2020
The father of Amirhossein Moradi, an Iranian protester sentenced to death, has died by suicide, Moradi’s lawyer said on Monday. “Unfortunately, Amirhossein Moradi’s father [died by] suicide,” Babak Paknia said on Twitter. The Moradi family has been under “a lot of pressure,” Telegram channel Emtedad, which broke the news, cited Moradi’s mother as saying. The body of Moradi’s father was found in his home’s basement Monday morning, she said. Security forces arrived at the Moradi household soon after the body was discovered, she added. A number of reporters from Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB who “wanted an interview” were also present, she said. Tehran-based political activist Mehdi Mahmoudian said on Twitter the IRIB reporters were looking to obtain “forced confessions” from members of Moradi’s family. Moradi was arrested and sentenced to death along with two other protesters following Iran’s anti-government protests in November 2019. Iranian rights group HRANA had previously reported that interrogators forced the three protesters to confess to crimes they did not commit through torture. In July, the Supreme Court of Iran upheld the death sentences of the three protesters. This prompted Iranians in and out of the country to launch the viral “do not execute” hashtag on Twitter which trended worldwide, with millions of tweets against the supreme court’s decision. US President Donald Trump as well as a number of senior Western politicians also urged the Iranian regime not to execute the three young protesters

UK's Johnson raises concerns with Turkey's Erdogan over east Med tensions
Reuters/Tuesday 29 September 2020
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Monday that he was concerned about tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, welcoming news that Turkey and Greece had agreed to talks, Johnson's office said in a statement. NATO allies Greece and Turkey, at loggerheads on a range of issues, have agreed to resume exploratory talks over contested maritime claims following weeks of tension, and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was beginning a two-day trip to Greece. "The Prime Minister expressed his concern about recent tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. He stressed the need for calm and welcomed the news that Turkey and Greece have agreed to talks," Johnson's office said.

At least 5 civilians killed in rocket fire near Baghdad airport: Army
AFPTuesday 29 September 2020
Three Iraqi children and two women from the same family were killed Monday when a rocket targeting Baghdad airport, where US troops are stationed, fell instead on their home, the army said. The latest in a string of incidents targeting American interests in Iraq came after Washington threatened to close its embassy and withdraw its 3,000 troops from the country unless the rocket attacks stop. The attacks, which started around a year ago, have caused few casualties.Monday's incident was the first to claim so many civilian lives. The army said it also wounded two other children. Twitter accounts supporting US arch-enemy Iran regularly praise the attacks, but that was not the case Monday, and no group immediately claimed responsibility. Previous attacks of the same nature have been claimed by murky groups saying they are acting against the "American occupier". Experts say they include former members of pro-Iranian factions of the Hashed al-Shaabi paramilitary alliance. The Iraqi army, in its statement Monday, accused "criminal gangs and groups of outlaws" of seeking to "create chaos and terrorize people". Between October and July, at least 39 rocket attacks targeted US interests in Iraq. Almost the same number again have taken place since. Iraqi intelligence sources have blamed the attacks on a small group of hardline Iran-backed paramilitary factions.
 

Libyans need to turn foreign interference into foreign assistance: UN envoy
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya EnglishSaturday 26 September 2020
Stephanie Williams, the acting UN envoy to Libya, stressed on the need to remove foreign forces and mercenaries from Libya and to push political talks forward, adding that the continuation of the daily entry of arms into the country was unacceptable. Williams spoke to Al Arabiya’s UN Bureau Chief Talal al-Haj in an exclusive interview in which she spoke on the latest efforts to reach a comprehensive peace agreement between rival warring factions in Libya. “It is unacceptable the level of military equipment that is coming in on a daily basis, the continuing inflow of foreign forces and mercenaries, so the risk of miscalculation militarily on the ground remains, and the general unsustainability of the situation, the socio economic particularly situation in the country, this makes the need for us all to move toward political talks very urgent,” Williams told Al Arabiya. Williams, the acting special representative of the UN Secretary General for Libya and deputy special representative of the UN Secretary General for Libya, also warned on other issues currently being faced by Libyans, especially during the global coronavirus pandemic. “On the other hand there are still some troubling developments that I think we need to keep an eye on, one of course is the fact that there are still severe electricity and water shortages throughout the country, you have people going sometimes 18-20 hours even longer per day without electricity, this during a global pandemic which is hitting Libya quite hard,” she said.
The United Nations condemned on Saturday clashes between two armed groups in a residential suburb of the Libyan capital and the use of heavy weapons. UNSMIL, the world body's support mission in Libya, in a statement late Friday expressed "great concern" over the fighting in the eastern suburb of Tajoura.
"Heavy weapons" were used in a "civilian-populated neighborhood", in clashes that caused "damage to private properties and put civilians in harm's way", it said. Williams condemned the level of foreign intervention in Libya, adding that it was time for Libyans to push for a turning point in their country’s political talks. “What we need is to turn that foreign interference into foreign assistance and to helping the Libyans who now want to come back together, who want to go to the dialogue table,” she said.

Is Netanyahu in the running for the Nobel Peace Prize?
DEBKAFile/September 28/2020
Binyamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump are being widely pitched as candidates for the next Nobel Peace Prize for their success in carving out a row of epic peace agreements that replace the Middle East’s most persistent conflict. Two of Netanyahu’s predecessors won the prize – Menachem Begin for concluding Israel’s first peace accord with an Arab nation, Egypt, and Itzhak Rabin for signing peace with Jordan. Syrian President Bashar Assad, evidently disinclined to be left out in the cold by the Arab world’s pursuit of peace with Israel, has put out his own feelers, according to the influential Saudi Sharq al-Awsat of Sunday, Sept. 27. He is considering climbing on the bandwagon driven by the Trump administration, whose peace diplomacy brought about United Arab Emirates and Bahrain normalization deals with the Jewish state. More Arab governments, including Sudan, are heading in the same direction. Latterly, as DEBKAfile reported this week, Lebanon and Israel have also been led to the table to discuss their longstanding maritime and land border disputes. The Sharq al-Awsat’s senior commentator Omar Hamidi noted that Syria’s Bashar al Assad, like his predecessor and father Hafez al-Assad, has more than once, when finding themselves in difficult quandaries, turned to seeking an accommodation with Jerusalem as the gateway to Washington. Today, trouble is crowding in on his regime from all directions: the Syrian economy is drowning fast, the generals and business leaders in his circle are at each other’s throats, his battlefronts are at a standstill, with chaos on the Syrian Golan; the Turkish army is entrenched in the north and the Kurds in the northeast are unifying for self-rule under US military protection.  While the Syrian ruler would seek joint Russian-American patronage for a new negotiating track with Israel, he is not clear on how his leading protector, Iran, will respond to the move. He has therefore not yet decided to jump in and is still turning the option over in his mind. The Trump administration’s recognition of Israel sovereignty over a part of the Golan could be an obstacle. However, Putin, if he decides to join the move, may be asked to conjure up a creative formula that falls between security control and full sovereignty to resolve the issue. Some Israel security circles favor a deal with Syria as it holds some prospect for breaking up Assad’s alliance with Tehran, which was recently solidified by a formal defense cooperation accord. Once clinched, this deal may eventually persuade Damascus to get rid of the regime’s Iranian “advisers” and expel the IRGC-backed Shiite militias from the country.The omens for the coming Jewish year are therefore positive. In 2020, Yom Kippur, the most solemn day of prayer and fasting on the Jewish calendar, may prove to be the harbinger of an unparalleled era of Middle East peace for the Jewish state – in stark contrast to the perils and deaths of Israel’s most calamitous conflict with the Arab world that marked Yom Kippur 1973.

Saudi Arabia foils terrorist cell trained by Iran's Revolutionary Guard
Weapons and explosives confiscated at house and farm/The National/September 28/2020
Saudi Arabian authorities last week broke into a terrorist cell that was trained by Iran's Revolutionary Guard, arresting 10 people and seizing weapons and explosives, a state security spokesman said on Monday. A statement issued by the Presidency of State Security, which is overseen by the King and Crown Prince, said three of those detained had received training in Iran by the paramilitary group in October 2017 on manufacturing explosives. The weapons and explosives were confiscated at a house and a farm, the statement said. The cell was broken up by security forces on September 23, with weapons such as sniper rifles and pistols confiscated at two locations, the security agency said. The security body did not provide much further detail or evidence regarding the alleged cell, such the location where the militants were arrested. The identities of those detained have not been revealed because an investigation is still ongoing, the statement said. Saudi Arabia and Iran are longtime rivals, though tensions have steadily increased in recent years between the two countries, particularly since the Trump administration began reimposing sanctions on Iran that effectively block it from selling its oil internationally. Saudi Arabia has blamed Iran of being behind attacks on Saudi oil targets last year, including a missile and drone strike on Aramco’s largest crude oil processing plant in the eastern part of the kingdom. Yemeni rebel Houthis claimed responsibility for that attack and Iran has denied involvement. A UN probe concluded the missiles were of Iranian origin. The Saudis also accuse Iran of interfering in Yemen by backing the Houthis when they ousted the internationally-backed government from the capital in late 2014. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud on Sunday spoke with his US counterpart Mike Pompeo on Sunday. The two discussed important work to advance humanitarian assistance and peace in Yemen, the need to increase Gulf stability, and the Abraham Accords signing, the US State Department said. This month, Bahrain said it broke up a plot by militants backed by Iran earlier this year to launch attacks on diplomats and foreigners in the island nation home to the US Navy’s 5th Fleet.

US will close Iraq embassy unless government secures Green Zone, sources say
Mina Aldroubi and James Haines-Young/The National/September 28/2020
Warning from Washington comes after months of increased attacks on diplomatic missions. The US is prepared to close its embassy in Iraq unless urgent action is taken to halt attacks on the mission and American soldiers, sources in Baghdad told The National.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened to close the embassy during a call a week ago to President Barham Salih, Iraqi government sources told Reuters.
The news was confirmed to The National by sources close to the Iraqi government, who said that no final decision has been made but regarded the US warning to be serious.
Washington has already begun preparations to withdraw diplomatic staff if the move is made, Reuters said. The sources said reports that diplomats may relocate to the relative safety of Erbil in Iraq’s Kurdish autonomous region were untrue and a closure would mean embassy staff leaving Iraq.
Washington blames Iran-backed militias for firing rockets at its embassy on a near-weekly basis for months, and for shelling Iraqi bases housing international troops, including many of the 5,000 US soldiers.
A rocket landed near Baghdad airport on Monday night killing three civilians and wounding two, security officials said. The last rocket attack on the US embassy was nearly 10 days ago, when a Katyusha fell inside the Green Zone, causing no injuries or damage.
The sources say Washington is seeking clear and tangible action from the government of Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi to end the attacks and hold perpetrators to account. After Mr Pompeo’s call, Iraqi sides have been engaged in high-level consultations on how to meet the US demands.
Populist Iraqi cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, followed by millions of Shiites in the country, last week proposed a joint committee with the government, Parliament and security forces to look at halting attacks on diplomats. At the heart of the US proposal was the security of the heavily fortified Green Zone.
It houses embassies including the American mission, which was built to be the biggest US outpost in the world, the Iraqi Parliament and other official buildings.
While Washington recognises that the rocket attacks are coming from outside the cordon, they point to “thousands” of Iran-backed militiamen based within its confines. The US wants the paramilitaries removed by the government, state security to strengthen defences around the area and more reliable troops to be posted there. “They said there can be no long-term solution without an end to the impunity for attacks as well as armed groups,” one Iraqi source said. A western diplomat from a US ally said that there was support for Mr Al Sadr’s proposal and clear action was needed.
“The prime minister needs the active support of all the main political leaders to be able to tackle the security threats from rogue militia groups,” the diplomat said.
The US ambassador to Iraq, Matthew Tueller, on Monday discussed ways to strengthen security co-operation with Iraq’s National Security Adviser, Qasim Al Araji. The US ambassador confirmed Washington’s support for Baghdad’s anti-terrorism operation and said it would provide assistance in “overcoming current challenges”. After the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein, the Green Zone was established to provide a secure haven from the turmoil to allow diplomats to work and the Iraqi state to start rebuilding.
But in 2019, then prime minister Adel Abdul Mahdi allowed the Popular Mobilisation Forces militias, officially part of the state security apparatus but under control of only the government, into the area.
Many of the security walls have since been removed to open the zone, long seen as symbolising Iraqi leaders' detachment from the public. US officials are concerned that these PMF groups are helping to co-ordinate the attacks on US positions. The attacks, usually claimed by little known militia factions, have increased since January when a US drone strike killed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Quds Force leader Qassem Suleimani and PMF leader Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis in Baghdad. It is not only the US that has been attacked. A British diplomatic vehicle hit a roadside bomb on the way to Baghdad airport this month. A UN convoy was also attacked recently. After Suleimani's death, thousands of protesters tried to storm the embassy until the US posted reinforcements and Iraq sent in the Golden Division to secure the area. The move to close the embassy could mark the start of a more aggressive US stance towards Iranian groups in the region, diplomats say.
The administration of US President Donald Trump has taken a tough line on Iran, withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear accords, placing sanctions on dozens of officials and companies, and killing Suleimani, who oversaw Tehran's regional armed proxies. The warning came weeks before the US presidential election on November 3, a sensitive time in which American officials worry that Iran may try to increase attacks. One western diplomat said the US change could lead to strikes and that Washington did not “want to be limited in their options” to pressure Iran or pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. Iraqi MP Jaber Al Jaberi said that the US closing its embassy could lead other countries to follow.
Sources said up to 12 other diplomatic missions rely on the "US-provided security umbrella” to operate in the country.
“Other European countries will follow their direction and close their embassies," Mr Al Jaberi said. "Iraq will be in the same scenario as Yemen."
Rockets attacks on US interests in Iraq must be stopped, said Sarkwat Shams, another Iraqi MP. “It will be a disastrous diplomatic failure for us and the US," Mr Shams said. "Militias are threatening Iraq before they threaten the US."

Trump tax revelations spark outrage among some, but supporters defend president
Reuters/Tuesday 29 September 2020
A report that Donald Trump paid little or no federal income tax in recent years sparked broad outrage on Monday, from rich Democrats to teachers and coffee shop workers taking to social media to claim they had paid more taxes than the U.S. president. The #IPaidMoreTaxesThanDonaldTrump hashtag began trending on Monday, while Democratic rival Joe Biden's election campaign seized on the backlash, launching merchandise with the words: 'I Paid More In Taxes Than Donald Trump.'"It's not fair. If I had to pay taxes, why shouldn't everybody else?" said Reginald Tyson, a retired army veteran, speaking outside the Lincoln Memorial in Washington. Tom Steyer, a billionaire environmentalist and a fierce critic of the president, took to Twitter to castigate Trump over his taxes and called for voters to kick him out office on Nov. 3. "In 2017, I paid $32 million more in federal taxes than Donald Trump," he added.
Trump defended his record on Monday after the New York Times reported he had paid just $750 in federal income taxes in both 2016 and 2017, after years of reporting heavy losses from his business enterprises. In a series of Twitter posts, the Republican president said he had paid "many millions of dollars in taxes" and that he had many more assets than debt. He did not provide evidence or promise to release any financial statements before the Nov. 3 presidential election. It is unclear whether the events will affect how Americans vote. Trump's Twitter posts received tens of thousands of 'likes', as his supporters spoke out in his defense. George Callas, managing director at law firm Steptoe LLP and former Republican tax counsel in the US House of Representatives, criticized in a tweet the leaking of confidential tax information and defended the tax system, while acknowledging some wealthy people avoid paying much, if any, tax. "There is nothing inherently 'unfair' about using losses to offset income. In fact, it's a critical piece of measuring someone's actual income over time," he wrote in a follow-up email to Reuters. "The question is whether those losses are real economic losses or just paper losses generated for tax purposes. And that can be very difficult to tease out."Polly Hartsook, 68, who runs a farm with her husband in Ringgold County, Iowa, said the tax system was written to help "job creators.""My guess is Donald Trump didn't prepare his tax returns, his tax preparers did it," said Hartsook, who said she voted for Trump in 2016 and will do so again. "Rather than give his money to the Treasury, Trump reinvests his money in things that provide jobs."For others, the idea that the real estate mogul had paid so little in taxes touched a nerve. Amy Grandinetti, 48, a nurse from Columbus, Ohio, who said she was backing Biden in November, described Trump's tax avoidance as "insane.""This should give serious pause to the average American," she said. Connor Madan, 23, from Washington, likewise balked at Trump's reported taxes, adding: "I feel like I pay more taxes than the president has. He's supposed to be setting the example for everyone."

Karabakh Clashes Kill 28 More Armenian Separatists
Agence France Presse/Monday 28 September 2020
Twenty-eight separatist rebel fighters died in clashes with Azerbaijani troops on Monday, officials in Azerbaijan's breakaway Nagorny Karabakh region said, bringing their military death toll to 59. World leaders have urged a halt in fighting after the worst escalation since 2016 raised the specter of a fresh war between the ex-Soviet rivals Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two countries have been locked in a territorial dispute since the 1990s, when Karabakh declared its independence after a war that claimed 30,000 lives. No country recognizes Karabakh's independence -- not even Armenia -- and it is still considered part of Azerbaijan by the international community. "Twenty-eight servicemen died in action" on Monday, Karabakh's defense ministry said in a statement on the second day of fighting. The total death toll rose to 68 including nine civilian deaths: seven in Azerbaijan and two on the Armenian side. Azerbaijan has not yet released information on military casualties since the latest fighting broke out. Talks to resolve one of the worst conflicts to emerge from the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union largely stalled in 1994 when a ceasefire was agreed. France, Russia and the United States have mediated peace efforts as the "Minsk Group" but the last big push for a peace deal collapsed in 2010.

Erdogan Tells Armenia to End 'Occupation' of Karabakh
Agence France Presse/Monday 28 September 2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday demanded Armenia put an end to its "occupation" of Nagorny Karabakh after deadly clashes broke out along the border of Azerbaijan's breakaway region. "The time has come for the crisis in the region that started with the occupation of Nagorny Karabakh to be put to an end," Erdogan said. "Once Armenia immediately leaves the territory it is occupying, the region will return to peace and harmony," he said in a prepared address. Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a territorial dispute over the ethnic Armenian region of Nagorny Karabakh for decades, waging a war in the early 1990s that claimed 30,000 lives. Turkey strongly backs Azerbaijan in the region and has historically poor relations with Armenia. Erdogan once again blamed Armenia for starting the latest escalation, accusing the United States, Russia and France of failing to properly address the conflict in so-called "Minsk Group" talks. "They basically did everything they could not to resolve the issue," Erdogan said. "Now Azerbaijan must take matters into its own hands."
 

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 28-29/2020

US warns Iraq on Iranian-backed militias
Laurie Mylroie/Kurdistan 24/September 28/2020
“The Iran-backed groups launching rockets at our Embassy are a danger not only to us but to the Government of Iraq, neighboring diplomatic missions, and residents of the former International Zone,” more commonly called the Green Zone, “and surrounding areas,” a State Department spokesperson told Kurdistan 24 on Saturday.
The statement followed a day after the highly-regarded Washington Post columnist, David Ignatius, reported that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had spoken to Iraqi President Barham Salih on Sunday, using very strong language.
In their phone call, Pompeo told Salih that if the Iraqi government did not rein in the Iranian-backed militias—specifically, Kata’ib Hizbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq—and their attacks on the Green Zone, the US would close its embassy.
Ignatius noted that the embassy’s closure could be “a prelude to heavy US airstrikes against the militias.”
Ignatius’ column followed on stories that first appeared in the Iraqi press on Tuesday, after a meeting the day before among the senior Iraqi leadership, in which Salih conveyed Pompeo’s warnings.
In addition to threatening to close the embassy, Salih also relayed a more dramatic threat, according to Iraqi24, which Ignatius cited in his story.
“If our forces withdraw, and the embassy is closed in this way, we will liquidate everyone who has been proven to be involved in these acts,” Pompeo reportedly told Salih.
“We will not have mercy on anyone, especially Kata’ib Hizbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq,” Pompeo said, adding, “The decision to close the US embassy will have very negative repercussions on Iraq and its future.”
This is a final warning to the government to work seriously to deter these terrorist actors,” Pompeo stated.
There is also the possibility of US sanctions, targeting Iraqi individuals and entities, as well as the withdrawal of US support for international economic aid to Baghdad, which has been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting fall in oil prices.
“As the United States works to secure financial support for Iraq from the international community and various private-sector businesses,” the statement from a State Department spokesperson to Kurdistan 24 continued, “the presence of lawless, Iran-backed militias remains the single biggest deterrent to additional investment in Iraq.”
Iraqi Response
The US warnings prompted quick condemnation in Iraq of the militia attacks—including from some surprising parties. The Iraqi cleric, Muqtada al-Sadr, was the first to speak out.
On Wednesday, Sadr charged that the bombings and assassinations carried out by the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), known in Arabic as the Hashd al-Shaabi, were “weakening Iraq and its people.”
On Thursday, the Fatah Alliance, a parliamentary coalition of Shi’a militias, led by Hadi al-Amiri, head of the Badr Brigade, joined in condemning the assaults, affirming in a statement, “We declare our rejection and condemnation of any attack targeting diplomatic missions and official institutions.”
The Fatah Alliance, however, includes Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Kata’ib Hizbollah—the very militias which the US charges are carrying out the attacks. A spokesman for the latter group subsequently issued a defiant tweet, directed at Washington, “Your threats will return to you, and we will rub you and your soldiers in the dirt.”
Yet on Friday, Sadr affirmed, even more strongly and concretely, the need to end the attacks, as he called for the formation of a committee to investigate assaults on Iraqi government buildings, as well as the offices of international missions in Iraq.
Sadr’s suggestion was immediately endorsed by Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, the Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Mohamed al-Halbousi, as well as the President of the Kurdistan Region, Nechirvan Barzani.
And on Saturday, Iraq’s Foreign Minister, Fuad Hussein, arrived in Tehran for a two-day visit to meet with senior officials. Prominent on his agenda was to get the Iranians to rein in the militias carrying out the attacks.
The substance of Iran’s response remains to be seen. However, at least on a rhetorical level, Tehran was defiant.
“We consider the presence of US armed forces in the region, whether in Iraq, Afghanistan or the southern countries of the Persian Gulf, as detrimental to security and stability in the region,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told Hussein, according to Iranian media.
On January 5, following the US assassination of Gen. Qasim Soleimani, head of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Iraqi parliament passed a resolution calling for the expulsion of US forces from the country.
“We consider what the Iraqi parliament and the representatives of the Iraqi people passed in this regard as a positive step which is supported by the Iraqi nation and us,” Rouhani reportedly said.
*Editing by John J. Catherine

Trump succeeded where the UN failed
Richard Goldberg/Washington Examiner/September 28/ 2020 |
President Trump’s speech this week to the United Nations General Assembly highlighted an uncomfortable truth for many foreign diplomats: Trump’s sometimes unconventional foreign policy has succeeded in four short years where traditional U.N. multilateralism has failed for decades.
Take, for example, the recent peace deals signed between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. These agreements were the result of a United States-led peace initiative widely condemned by professional diplomats and self-styled foreign policy experts. After Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, the U.S. vetoed a Security Council resolution that condemned the move. The General Assembly later voted 128-9 to denounce America’s decision.
The General Assembly’s position on Jerusalem, of course, paled in comparison to the U.N.’s many decades of financing hatred in the Middle East toward Israel and Jews through its duplicative Palestinian-related committees, the Israel-bashing Human Rights Council, and the U.N. agency for so-called Palestinian refugees. These raise and educate generation after generation to hate Israelis and reject any peace that doesn’t lead to Israel’s destruction.
How embarrassing, then, to recognize today that Trump’s American-led multilateral initiative succeeded in bringing peace to the Middle East, while U.N. multilateralism only prolonged the conflict. For Middle Eastern peace, the U.N. was the problem, not the solution.
This week, just days after the signing of historic peace accords, the U.N. secretary-general could not bring himself to mention the agreements in his speech before the General Assembly. Why? Because they defy the U.N.’s failed logic that Arab-Israeli peace could never exist until a Palestinian state was established.
Trump’s peace initiative was conducted contrary to the U.N.’s wishes, but it was still multilateral. He opted for quiet outreach to Persian Gulf nations and Israel in place of high-profile summits and meetings of the Security Council or General Assembly. Trump thus upended the anti-Israel orthodoxies of U.N. agencies and succeeded in advancing peace — a seemingly abandoned mission of the U.N. system.
The story is the same when it comes to maintaining international security. The Middle East is already the most dangerous region in the world — and Iran, the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, is its most dangerous resident. Selling conventional arms to Iran would be like selling kerosene and matches to a known arsonist, perhaps the textbook definition of a threat to international peace and security.
But the Security Council decided last month to allow the U.N. arms embargo on Iran to expire in October. Moreover, when Trump triggered a process known as “snapback” to reimpose all U.N. sanctions on Iran, including the arms embargo, the Security Council refused to acknowledge the move.
Keep in mind, of course, that Iran is one of the worst abusers of human rights in the world. It is a leading state sponsor of anti-Semitism and has repeatedly called for Israel’s destruction. The regime is also under investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency for potentially breaching the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Put simply, Iran is the antithesis of every founding value of the U.N., but the Security Council thinks it’s a good idea to let China and Russia flood this rogue state with advanced conventional arms.
Traditional American allies on the Security Council, such as the United Kingdom and France, have unfortunately retreated to a 1930s foreign policy, seeking to avoid confrontation with dangerous regimes at all costs. Their views align with those of former Vice President Joe Biden and other Democratic Party elites who favor a return to the Iran nuclear deal. This transatlantic axis of appeasement prefers paying Iran’s extortion racket, avoiding confrontation today while guaranteeing far bloodier conflict down the road. For an institution built on the ashes of World War II, the lessons of the past have been all but forgotten in the Security Council 75 years later.
Here, too, we see a case in which U.N. multilateralism is the problem, and an American-led multilateral approach outside of the Security Council presents a solution. Trump on Monday issued an executive order threatening secondary sanctions against Russian and Chinese defense firms if they transfer weapons to Iran. The deterrent power of U.S. sanctions, alongside economic market leverage from Persian Gulf allies and Israel, will force Russian and Chinese arms purchasers to cut ties with Moscow and Beijing if either country violates those sanctions.
Trump’s detractors decry the move as unilateralism in the face of U.S. isolation. In truth, Trump’s snapback is supported by Iran’s neighbors and will prove more effective than the U.N. itself in fulfilling its mission.
Globalists posit that U.N. multilateralism is the cure for nearly every problem facing the world. But Trump brokered peace in the Middle East and stopped Russia and China from arming a state sponsor of terrorism despite the U.N., not because of it. This is a paradox that all Americans must confront as the U.N. sets out on its next 75 years.
*Richard Goldberg is a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He served on Capitol Hill, on the U.S. National Security Council, as the chief of staff for Illinois’s governor, and as a Navy Reserve Intelligence Officer. Follow him on Twitter @rich_goldberg.

As UN celebrates 75th anniversary, dictators still dominate
Tzvi Kahn/Washington Examiner/September 28/ 2020
The United Nations is currently celebrating its 75th anniversary, but hold the applause. The global body has still failed to address the two key issues that undermine its legitimacy in the United States: anti-Israel bias and hypocrisy on human rights. The U.N.’s key human rights bodies include numerous dictatorships, which use U.N. bodies to deflect attention from their own abuses. All the while, the U.N. obsessively criticizes Israel, the one truly democratic country in the Middle East, with a track record on human rights that is far better than most of the governments voting to condemn it.
These two persistent defects are on full display as the U.N. General Assembly, the U.N. Human Rights Council, the Economic and Social Council, and other U.N. bodies gather virtually this month.
At the U.N. Human Rights Council and the Economic and Social Council, Israel remained the only country in the world with a separate agenda item dedicated to highlighting its flaws. In her opening speech to the Human Rights Council, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, Michelle Bachelet, denounced Israel’s alleged human rights abuses against the Palestinians but remained silent about the terrorism of Hamas, Islamic jihad, and other radical Islamist groups in Gaza. She also failed to acknowledge the landmark peace accords between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain.
Similarly, the Economic and Social Council adopted a resolution lambasting Israel, and no other country, for allegedly violating women’s rights. The vaguely worded resolution provided few details, instead offering a blanket assertion that Israel’s “occupation remains a major obstacle for Palestinian women and girls with regard to the fulfillment of their rights.” The resolution passed by a vote of 43-3, with eight abstentions. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia both voted in the affirmative, despite their own questionable credentials as arbiters of women’s rights.
The Saudis, along with Russia, Cuba, and China, are presently running for seats on the Human Rights Council. These four may seem like improbable candidates, yet they have all won seats in the past, since human rights offenders are numerous in the General Assembly, which elects the members of the Human Rights Council.
Appropriately, the General Assembly began its annual session under the leadership of its newly elected president, Turkish diplomat Volkan Bozkir, who represents an Islamist regime responsible for major human rights abuses, including the mass incarceration of journalists and the torture of political prisoners. Without irony, on Monday, he presided over the passage of a resolution reaffirming, in honor of the U.N.’s 75th anniversary, the U.N.’s commitment to human rights.
Meanwhile, conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and Libya continue with no end in sight. More than a million Uighur Muslims languish in concentration camps in China’s Xinjiang region. The regime in Iran executed wrestler Navid Afkari for crimes to which he confessed under torture. In Belarus, protests continue against the regime of longtime President Alexander Lukashenko. Russia continues to bomb hospitals in Syria, and Moscow likely played a role in the recent poisoning of dissident Alexei Navalny.
Yet the U.N. has amounted to little more than a bystander to these events. “As the world body turns 75,” the New York Times observed just before the U.N. gathering began, “it also faces profound questions about its own effectiveness, and even its relevance.”
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Seventy-five years ago, representatives of 50 nations gathered in San Francisco to draft and approve the U.N. charter. After two world wars marked by unspeakable suffering, the U.N.’s founders sought to devise a new institution that could and would prevent major human rights abuses. The U.N., stated the charter, aims to “reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small.”
Since then, the U.N. and its member states have adopted a range of human rights conventions, including the landmark Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and consistently offered paeans to the importance of human rights. Earlier this year, to mark the U.N.’s 75th anniversary, Secretary General Antonio Guterres released a document called “The Highest Aspiration: A Call to Action for Human Rights,” which purported to renew the U.N.’s founding commitment to human rights. Strikingly, Guterres acknowledged that the U.N.’s mission remains unfulfilled. The “cause of human rights faces major challenges, and no country is immune,” he wrote. “Disregard for human rights is widespread.”
“My goal for the United Nations – as it marks its seventy-fifth anniversary – is to promote a human rights vision that is transformative, that provides solutions and that speaks directly to each and every human being,” asserted Guterres.
Yet Guterres’s call to action failed to acknowledge that the U.N.’s own structure, with a disproportionate influence of dictatorships and preoccupation with Israel, lies at the root of its own ineffectiveness. Ultimately, the U.N. will remain unreformed if it cannot or will not admit its own failings.
*Tzvi Kahn is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @TzviKahn.

Reforming Tokyo’s Ballistic Missile Defense is a Priority for Japan’s New Prime Minister
Mathew Ha/The National Interest/September 28/2020
Suga could mark his first policy success as Japan’s new leader by implementing a robust and comprehensive missile defense plan.
With Yoshihide Suga confirmed as Japan’s new prime minister, one of the first pressing policy choices that he faces concerns the future of Japan’s ballistic and cruise missile defense (BMD) architecture. Since Japan faces a multitude of missile threats from North Korea and China, Prime Minister Suga should propose a comprehensive solution that ensures improved persistence and distribution of BMD capabilities to reduce the burden on the U.S. and Japanese maritime units as well as other shared alliance interests.
A new BMD plan would help address the gap created by the Japanese defense ministry’s decision not to acquire two land-based Aegis Ashore (AA) systems for use at separate sites. Until June, Japan was intent on installing these systems to enhance its existing BMD assets, which include a maritime component of Aegis BMD-equipped naval vessels and land-based components consisting of the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) and AN/TPY-2 Radar. Deploying Aegis Ashore would have decreased the current burden on the maritime units by assuming the majority of responsibilities for protecting Japan against North Korean ballistic missiles.
The Japanese Defense Ministry, however, scrapped this plan due to growing perceptions among Tokyo’s leadership that there would be added costs to enhance the system’s safety measures. These enhancements would ease a backlash from civilians living near the planned AA sites, who cited concerns of the potential damage to residential areas due to falling rocket boosters from the system’s interceptors.
An alternative solution under consideration in Tokyo is placing the AA’s radars and missile interceptors on specially constructed naval vessels rather than on land. Moving these capabilities off land would resolve the local communities’ concerns and potentially avoid the added costs for boosting safety measures. However, this option still leaves Japan’s BMD architecture with vulnerabilities in its coverage. Admiral Hiroshi Yamamura of Japan’s Maritime Self Defense Force argued that Japan’s additional BMD capability must not be influenced by the weather or climate. This is because naval vessels provide less persistent coverage than land-based systems, such as AA, since vessels cannot perform their BMD functions in rough weather or sea conditions.
Japan is also considering the acquisition of a limited strike capability that can range enemy ships and land-based assets to deter and if necessary defeat any aggressive actions. These capabilities would be deployed to supplement Tokyo’s missile defense architecture by creating deterrence capabilities. This, however, is a controversial option due to Japan’s pacifist constitution, which forbids Tokyo from acquiring offensive and power projection capabilities. Additionally, Komeito, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s junior coalition partner, opposes the plan for this very reason.
Still, Japan needs an alternative to the missile interception capabilities provided by land-based AA. Specifically, the replacement to this system should still prioritize improved persistence and distribution of BMD capabilities to increase flexibility and relieve pressure on maritime assets. This is specifically important because AA would have enabled Japan to more effectively support Washington’s regional military posture and its efforts to deter China’s aggressive actions throughout the Indo-Pacific. Deploying AA to Japan aimed not only to boost Japan’s own ballistic missile defense capabilities, but also to lessen the burden on Japanese Self Defense Force Aegis-equipped destroyers and allow them to conduct other missions. The deployment also sought to increase the U.S. military’s flexibility to deploy its BMD-equipped naval vessels stationed in Japan to other areas under threat of Chinese incursion and power projection, such as the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Indian Ocean.
It is imperative to address Admiral Yamaura’s concerns regarding coverage in intercepting capabilities. However, the United States and Japan could alleviate these issues by strengthening other elements of a more comprehensive BMD solution to better anticipate enemy missile strikes. For instance, one area for further U.S.-Japan collaboration is the development and fielding of a distributed network of mobile and fixed sensors and radars as well as satellites to augment the alliance’s early warning and detection capabilities. Aerial drones, such as the MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle, should be considered as a possibility for mobile options. The U.S. has been equipping these drones with the necessary capabilities to support BMD missions. Washington already tested this drone in the Indo-Pacific in June 2016 during the Pacific Dragon joint BMD exercise with Japan and South Korea.
Additionally, low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites could further improve the United States and Japan’s missile defense, as these satellites may be the only assets capable of detecting China’s newly emerging hypersonic missiles. LEO satellites also can evade already deployed ground and sea-based radars as well as most military satellites thanks to their high speed and low altitude flight path.
Japan should also assess its ability to detect and engage cruise missile threats to critical land-based nodes such as airfields and logistics hubs. U.S. forces in Japan rely on the joint “agile combat employment” concept and on Japanese forces to protect them and their facilities. This new concept calls for the U.S. Air Force to be able to launch, operate, and maintain fighter jets away from its main bases and in unorthodox locations, such as allied nation airfields and civilian airports, to evade Russian and Chinese cruise missile strikes. Deploying land-based missile defense assets, such as AA, would supplement the alliance’s ability to defend against cruise missiles. This cruise missile defense assessment should also drive a number of air, ground, and maritime self-defense force initiatives, beyond Aegis.
To maximize the effectiveness of these new additions, both countries should also ensure seamless integration of any new capabilities with existing ones to ensure that the alliance’s interoperable command and control systems, namely the Bilateral Joint Operations Command Center, can detect, track, assign and, if necessary, engage all incoming threats with the most appropriate defense capability. This will be essential for the U.S. and Japan to uphold a mutually supporting, overlapping, and reinforcing defense.
A final priority for Japan’s new BMD plan should be to continue efforts to integrate its own capabilities with South Korea’s missile defense units. Currently, Japan and South Korea cannot share targeting data between their naval BMD units, because their vessels’ onboard Aegis systems lack a common encryption system. As both Seoul and Tokyo face common threats from North Korea and China, exchanging intelligence is not only critical for situational awareness, but also helpful in strengthening trilateral security cooperation essential to the U.S. extended deterrence posture.
Washington’s allies in turn should consider adopting a common encryption system for their Aegis vessels shared with the U.S. to boost trilateral ship-to-ship interoperability. While recent political and economic friction between Tokyo and Seoul may obstruct immediate cooperation, Prime Minister Suga could take a crucial step forward in ameliorating tensions with South Korea by offering this joint solution to a shared security issue.
Thus, Prime Minister Suga could mark his first policy success as Japan’s new leader by implementing a robust and comprehensive missile defense plan. This will not only help Suga stabilize his leadership, but also put Japan in a better position to defend and deter against its adversaries with the support of its allies and partners.
Mathew Ha is a research analyst focused on East Asia at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). Follow him on Twitter @MatJunsuk. FDD is a Washington-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Pushing Back on Iraqi Militias: Weighing U.S. Options
Michael Knights/The Washington Institute/September 28/2020
Although halting the escalation of militia attacks on American personnel is crucial, simply evacuating the Baghdad embassy and downscaling the bilateral relationship would allow Iran to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
On September 20, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reportedly warned the Iraqi government that unchecked militia attacks could spur the United States to shutter its embassy and launch powerful strikes on Iran-backed militia leaders. Since then, Iraqi officials and even some militia figures have scrambled to placate Washington, with various armed groups publicly distancing themselves from attacks on diplomatic facilities. At the same time, however, the warning shocked an embattled Iraqi government that had served up some powerful blows against Iranian proxies in recent weeks, including the September 17 arrest of suspected militia financier Bahaa Abdul-Hussein, who controls a multi-billion-dollar e-payment service.
The episode underlines the corrosive effect that even nonlethal militia harassment attacks can have on the bilateral relationship, an issue that the author has previously provided analysis and updates on in July, March, and February. Prior to the most recent incidents outlined in the list below, relations had been improving markedly, with Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi visiting Washington in August and the Trump administration agreeing to start reducing U.S. forces from 5,200 to a sustainable level of around 3,000. To defuse any tensions that may sprout from Pompeo’s stark warning, the next step is to agree on practical measures to reassure Washington that the Iraqi government is providing as much protection as it can realistically muster at this time—keeping in mind that not even the U.S. military could completely stop such attacks when it had 165,000 troops on the ground.
TALLYING RECENT MILITIA ATTACKS
The number and scope of operations against American, coalition, and Iraqi targets has expanded recently:
Logistical convoys. The U.S. embassy and coalition military forces rely on the import of many pieces of equipment and consumables, some of which are destined for disbursement to Iraqi security forces. Attacks on the Iraqi truck convoys that transport this materiel increased from 14 in the first quarter of 2020 to 27 in Q2 and 25 in Q3. The quality of these attacks has increased as well, including the use of passive infrared triggers for more accurate targeting and, in recent days, daisy-chained explosively formed penetrators (EFPs).
Foreign security details. On August 26, a roadside bomb damaged a UN World Food Programme vehicle in the operating area of an Iran-backed militia east of Mosul, wounding one occupant. On September 15, another roadside bomb exploded alongside a British embassy armored vehicle in Baghdad, causing no injuries. These attacks came almost a year after the last such bombings: a 2019 spate of militia attacks on oil company convoys in Basra.
Rockets and drones. U.S. targets suffered 27 rocket and drone attacks in Q3, higher than Q2 (11 attacks) and Q1 (19). No U.S. casualties were caused in this quarter’s attacks; the last U.S. fatalities occurred on March 11. Yet the most recent strikes have been more accurate, aimed to land inside the U.S. embassy grounds. On September 15, the embassy’s counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar (C-RAM) system destroyed a salvo of rockets projected to strike the complex. As for drones, one was found on a roof near the embassy on July 22, apparently readied for attack with a bomb equivalent to a medium (81-82 mm) mortar shell. On September 2, a similar combination was used to attack the G4S security company at Baghdad airport, striking very accurately but causing no casualties. Some armed groups have accused this U.S.-British company of providing intelligence that pinpointed the location of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and militia kingpin Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who were killed by a U.S. airstrike near the airport on January 3.
U.S. RESPONSE OPTIONS
The above review paints a picture of a very active Iran-backed militia threat that is evolving in worrisome ways. The United States does not want to go through another period like that seen in December-January, when its embassy was besieged, major new deployments had to be made to the region, and the risk of broader conflict with militias and Iran was quite real. The Trump administration understandably wants to break the current momentum, since the last time such a surge of attacks occurred, the results were the death of an American in December, U.S. airstrikes, mob attacks on the embassy, the forceful but risky decision to target Soleimani and Muhandis, and an Iraqi parliamentary motion to remove U.S. forces. Pompeo’s warning might also have been spurred by classified information.
Whatever its impetus, the U.S. threat to close the embassy is a very problematic policy option, notwithstanding its immediate utility in galvanizing Iraqi attention on militia issues. Shuttering the embassy is the exact outcome that every Iran-backed militia dreams of achieving. It would be a propaganda victory of epic proportions for Tehran and its proxies, undercutting all of the progress achieved in Iraq since Soleimani and Muhandis were killed. It would also represent an even more complete withdrawal from Iraq than the one undertaken by the Obama administration in 2011, which helped pave the way for al-Qaeda’s reemergence as the Islamic State and, later, militia control over broad swaths of the Iraqi state. Not only would all U.S. diplomatic and military operations in Iraq end, but all other coalition operations would cease as well given their dependence on the U.S. presence. Many foreign powers would likely mimic Washington’s full departure—except for Iran, Russia, and China. In no scenario would this outcome serve U.S. interests.
Washington should therefore avoid invoking such an extreme measure in the future, instead working with the Kadhimi government on other kinds of intensified response options. In particular, to better protect the embassy when U.S. threat warnings indicate impending attacks, Iraqi forces could temporarily close parts of the International Zone and reinforce protection there. Similar arrangements could be made for the airport and the main airport road under certain conditions. Although completely halting rocket fire is unrealistic anytime soon, the embassy was built to withstand such attacks and is protected by the potent C-RAM system, which the Iraqi government allows to operate over the capital despite the extreme noise and occasional stray shells it generates.
Moreover, if U.S. officials have specific intelligence about a new militia threat—say, the introduction of advanced precision rocket systems—they should share this data on condition that Iraq quickly mounts an operation against it. Prime Minister Kadhimi is still the titular head of the highly capable Iraqi National Intelligence Service, and partner nations regularly trust him and his inner circle (largely INIS personnel) with sensitive information.
If the U.S. government needs to see visible signs of Iraq pushing back on militias, Baghdad’s action should be purposeful in some broader sense than just placating Washington. Rather than goading Iraqi officials into an over-ambitious “rush to failure” (e.g., attempting a military takedown of a key militia), the smartest approach is to help them take back the International Zone. Incrementally removing militias from this key piece of real estate would be deeply symbolic on a national level and, more important, protect the most sensitive Iraqi, U.S., and coalition facilities. Gradually weeding thousands of militiamen and heavy weapons out of the zone would be highly confrontational, but at least it would be worth the risk—unlike arresting a few individual militia leaders, which would have limited impact. Kadhimi is already making many positive changes to the zone’s security arrangements with U.S. assistance, so the moment is ripe for a “neighborhood by neighborhood” effort to remove fighters and weapons. Washington should rally vocal support for such a move, not only among international players with embassies in the zone, but also among moderate Shia, secular, Kurdish, and Sunni political blocs in Iraq.
While waiting for these and other measures to be implemented, the embassy is quite capable of protecting itself, as it did during last December’s showdown. Moreover, the U.S. presence has been decreased and consolidated since then—it is now concentrated at six sites rather than fourteen, each with active defenses against missiles, rockets, and drones. This multi-billion-dollar investment gives brave American personnel the resilience to weather harassment fire when unavoidable, and although the protective umbrella does not extend to supply convoys, those transport functions are fulfilled by equally brave Iraqis, not Americans. Securing the International Zone and starting the campaign to push militias out would give the embassy even firmer ground to stand on as it helps Baghdad hold fast against Iranian threats.
*Michael Knights, a senior fellow with The Washington Institute, has conducted extensive on-the-ground research in Iraq alongside security forces and ministries. He is the coauthor (with Hamdi Malik and Aymenn Al-Tamimi) of the Institute study Honored, Not Contained: The Future of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces.

Iran FM demands protection for diplomatic missions in Iraq
AFP/September 28/ 2020
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif on Saturday called for the protection of diplomatic installations in Iraq as he hosted his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein in Tehran. The top diplomats also discussed the US killing in Baghdad of top Iranian commander General Qasem Soleimani in January, and bilateral cooperation between the two neighbours. Zarif, in an English-language tweet, said they discussed "attacks on Iranian diplomatic premises" in Iraq, adding that he had underlined to Hussein the "imperative of protection of diplomatic posts". They also "reviewed practical steps to further enhance bilateral cooperation" and "discussed (the) US terrorist murder of our hero General Soleimani".His comments come more than a week after three separate attacks targeted Western diplomatic or military installations in Iraq. On September 15, an improvised explosive device targeted a British embassy vehicle just outside the high-security Green Zone in Baghdad that houses diplomatic missions.
Hours before that, two Katyusha rockets targeted the US embassy in the Green Zone, an Iraqi security source said at the time. And the previous day two explosive devices targeted a US-led coalition equipment convoy, the Iraqi military had said.
Iraqi intelligence sources have blamed similar attacks on a small group of Iran-backed paramilitary factions. Iranian diplomatic missions in Iraq were attacked last year amid anti-government protests and charges that Tehran is propping up the government in Baghdad. The last attack occurred in November 2019 when anti-government demonstrators torched the Iranian consulate in the Iraqi holy city of Najaf. Soleimani was killed in January in an American drone air strike near Baghdad airport, alongside top Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.
Days later, Iran launched a volley of missiles at Iraqi bases housing US and other coalition troops. The Zarif-Hussein talks come three days after the US granted Iraq a 60-day extension to a sanctions waiver, allowing it to import Iranian gas for its crippled power grids.

Is Turkey planning to recruit Syrians to fight Armenia?
Seth J.Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/September 28/2020
Turkey has upped its rhetoric against Armenia in recent days, threatening the country and claiming Armenia is “playing with fire” and alleging Armenia has recruited “terrorists.”
Several hundred Syrian refugees have been recruited by Turkey to fight against Armenia in the disputed Karabagh region, according to claims by Syrian commentators, activists and other reports. The claims were posted on social media this week and circulated among Syrian refugees, dissidents and others who monitor Syria.
Turkish and Greek media also helped fuel the rumors. Turkey has upped its rhetoric against Armenia in recent days, threatening the country, claiming that it is “playing with fire” and alleging that Armenia has recruited “terrorists.” The new rhetoric appears to be a way for Ankara to justify a new crisis and involvement in the Caucasus, potentially recruiting Syrians as it has done to fight its recent war in Libya.Turkey has been recruiting Syrian rebels for years as a way to co-opt the Syrian rebellion and turn it into an instrument of Turkish foreign policy. Initially under the banner of Turkish-backed groups such as Faylaq al-Sham and later as the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army and Syrian National Army, Turkey cobbled together thousands of poor Syrians to fight in Jarabulus in 2016. Later Turkey sent tens of thousands of Syrians to fight against Kurdish Syrians in Afrin as a way to divide and conquer northern Syria.
Ankara encouraged extremism among its mostly Arab and Turkmen recruits to target Kurdish, Yazidi and Christian minorities in northern Syria between 2018 and 2019. Then Turkey took the Syrians and sent them to fight in Libya as Ankara’s leading party signed a deal with the embattled Tripoli-based government to acquire energy and military base rights.
Now Turkey’s ruling party, which thrives on creating a new international crisis every month, may be targeting Armenia. Turkey created other crises this year: in Idlib in February and March and then in Libya in April and May, then bombing Iraq in June and July and shifting to threaten Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean in August and September. Meanwhile Ankara has pledged to support Azerbaijan in recent clashes with Armenia.
A Syrian source provided photos and video of buses allegedly with Syrian mercenaries recruited by Turkey being sent towards Armenia on Wednesday, September 23. Majd Helobi, a Kurdish reporter provided photos and information detailing the allegations. Allegations include assertions that these Syrians recruited by Ankara are linked to those who carried out crimes in Turkish-occupied Afrin and Tel Abyad. The UN recently accused Turkey and Turkish-backed groups of rape and looting in occupied areas of northern Syria. A US Lead Inspector General Report also accused Turkish-backed groups in Libya of similar crimes. “They are brainwashed and making war crimes,” the Syrian source says. According to the report, there was a group of cars and buses with 200 “mercenaries” linked to the Sultan Murad group. A recording posted online included Syrian recruits alleging they were sent to a base near the border with Armenia.
The report alleges that the men who join will be paid 500 dollars a month, more for officers. This appears similar to arrangements made to pay thousands of poverty-stricken Syrians who Turkey recruited and illegally sent to Libya. The Guardian claimed 2,000 Syrians were already fighting in Libya in January. Some later claimed they were not paid on time and sought to find a way to leave.
Recruiting Syrians to fight Kurds and then to fight in Libya and now perhaps to fight Armenia may be a way for Turkey to distract them from the fact that it is working with Iran and Russia, who support the Assad regime that the Syrian rebels wanted to fight.
Turkey’s regime has posed as a protector of Muslims and used terminology to make it appears it is fighting an “Islamic” cause against Greece, Israel and also in Libya and Syria. For instance, the fanfare of turning Hagia Sophia into a mosque in July was part of this motif.
Alongside the use of the mercenaries, Turkey’s paramilitary contractor Sadat has gained more prominence. This appears to be Ankara’s way of replicating what Russia did with groups such as Wagner or what Iran has done with the Quds force of the IRGC, creating a way to export Ankara’s revolution by recruiting others to do the fighting rather than the Turkey's own military.
Ankara has kept the Turkish military busy since an attempted 2016 coup. That is also part of the reason for the monthly crises. The invasion of Jarabulus and then Idlib, Afrin and Tel Abyad, and new tensions at sea and then on the Greece border, as well as the Libya deployment of drones and special forces, was all part of this.
In late July Turkey’s defense minister vowed to “avenge” Azeri soldiers killed in clashes with Armenia. This was part of the rising rhetoric of Ankara about possible involvement in Armenia.
Like talk of Turkey taking over areas of northern Iraq and Idlib, this appears to be about reviving claims from the Ottoman era. Turkey has often made historical claims to back its involvement. For instance it claimed that there are “Turks” in Libya to justify involvement. This is a multi-layered approach then: with history, religion, mercenaries, government-connected contractors, the need to keep the army occupied, the need for crises to distract from economic failure at home, and the need to distract Syrians from Turkey’s sellout to Russia and Iran - all combined into a policy sandwich.
Has that sandwich now begun to contemplate involvement in Armenia and other conflicts? Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told Armenia to stop its “aggression” against Azerbaijan on September 22. He said Ankara was standing side-by-side with Azerbaijan and “wished Allah’s mercy” on recently fallen soldiers.
This is part of Ankara’s language to make the conflict into a religious issue, just as it did to convince Syrians to fight Kurds under the banner of “Islam” against “atheists” and “kuffar.” Turkey’s Defense Ministry has said Armenia is “playing with fire” and that it was “unlawfully occupying Nagorno-Karabakh.”
This lays the groundwork for a potential Turkish military involvement Ankara’s ruling party has operationalized its pro-government media. Ankara has imprisoned almost all critical journalists in Turkey and continued to arrest critics daily so as to totally control the media and use it to telegraph its plans.
On September 25, Daily Sabah wrote that “Armenia transfers YPG/PKK terrorists to occupied area to train militias against Azerbaijan.” This headline was meant to create the justification for Turkey to claim its “security” is being threatened by the “PKK” and that it can invade. Turkey has used this excuse to bomb and invade northern Iraq and Syria, always claiming there are "terrorists" that it is “neutralizing.”
Turkey has presented no evidence of any terror attacks from Syria to justify its invasion and illegal occupation. However it got NATO, of which it is a member, to claim it has a right to protect its security. There is no evidence of the “PKK” in Armenia, but Turkey invented this claim to justify its own transfer of militias.
More evidence that Turkey is trying to use Syrians for a new mission emerged on Friday as sources provided names and images of “FSA soldiers” being trained to be sent to fight Armenia. Social media users who follow Syria also tweeted about the “confirmed information about the first group from the Syrian opposition fighters” who had arrived on Wednesday. It was unclear where they had arrived.
There was pushback on the tweets, with some claiming the stories are “Russia propaganda” and that there is little evidence of the transfers. However others pointed to a photo of a Syrian rebel flag being flown in a mountainous area as “evidence” that the men were being sent to the east, away from Syria and toward the Caucasus.
The rumors of increased Turkish involvement in Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions may be a way for Turkey to distract from economic problems at home and a way to recruit more impoverished Syrian refugees under the banner of a religious conflict against “terrorists” to stoke the flames of nationalism and extremism that Turkey’s ruling party thrives on.
One issue for Turkey is that the more countries it bombs, threatens and invades, the more it creates a bloc that is stepping up to oppose the endless aggression, crises and threats. For instance, in the Mediterranean the threats from Ankara drove Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, France and the UAE to work more closely together. Invasion and ethnic cleansing in Afrin led some to assert that Ankara was as great a threat as Assad and has bolstered the Russia and Iranian-backed Assad regime. It’s unclear if an Ankara decision to become involved in the Caucasus would similarly fuel new alliances.

Iran is approaching a boiling point and the regime is ready with bloodshed
Amir Toumaj/Alarabiya/Monday 28 September 2020
The Islamic Republic of Iran has recently stepped up its repressive tactics with a series of high-profile executions in response to mass anti-government protests over the last two years. As the root causes of protests remain unaddressed, more violence and terror should be expected.
Despite global protest, the state executed national wrestling champion Navid Afkari on September 12, after rights group raised concerns that he had been tortured and forced to confess without a fair trial.
Afkari’s execution follows a successful high-profile campaign against death sentences imposed on three young men convicted for their involvements in the November 2019 protests. Like Afkari and countless other political prisoners, authorities tortured them, denied them a fair trial, and tormented their families. A court upholding the men’s death sentences triggered global outcry including from US President Donald Trump, and an unprecedented online campaign on Iranian social media. In response, authorities commuted their death sentences, although they are still imprisoned indefinitely.
After that tactical retreat, Iran’s judiciary executed an alleged spy and then political prisoner Mostafa Salehi, arrested during the late December 2017 – early January 2018 protests, to fortify the state’s wall of fear.
Protests mobilized again on the web and the global stage after the judiciary announced it would uphold Afkari’s death sentence for allegedly stabbing a water municipality employee in a mass protest in August 2018. Afkari’s brothers too have been given lengthy prison sentences. International athletic associations and Trump called for Afkari’s release. It seemed as if the international and domestic pressure would work again. Or so people thought.
Authorities suddenly announced Afkari’s execution; he himself was apparently unaware until the last minute, and his lawyer and family say he was denied a last visit. Authorities have reportedly blocked roads in the vicinity of Sangar village in Fars Province to prevent more people coming to his grave.
The judiciary does not plan to stop with Afkari. At least 30 political prisoners are reportedly on death row Activists have warned that one Kurdish man and 4 Ahwazi-Arab political prisoners are at risk of imminent execution.
Rights groups have recently warned of an increase in the use of execution. Prominent political prisoner Narges Mohammadi on September 18 penned a letter from prison warning about the gravity of political prisoners’ plights, urging to act before it is “too late.”
Repression has also tightened. Mohammadi and another prominent prisoner Nasrin Sotoudeh say their treatment in prison has deteriorated. Dozens of members of the Baha’i faith were arrested over the summer. A number of Christian converts were exiled to cities far from their homes after their prison sentences, a new form of punishment for them according to International Christian Concern. At least 3,600 such as whistleblowers have been arrested and at least one newspaper suspended for spreading “fake news” about the spread of COVID-19 in Iran.
More protests expected
The Islamic Republic is preparing to crush more protests. Since November of last year, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has introduced neighborhood-based Basij paramilitary units across the country to, as a senior commander put it, deal with “thugs and disruptors of security” in cooperation with the security and judicial apparatus. The Law Enforcement Forces (LEF), the first line of defense against protesters, has also restructured and declared commitments to implement more advanced weapons and technology. This allocation of resources amid a budget shortfall and cuts to salaries of security forces including in the IRGC reflects fears of more unrest.
The mounting use of execution is rooted in the Islamic Republic’s desire to secure its rule amid shaky grounds and fears of more looming protests. The regime has used repressive tactics throughout its history, including when authorities hung over 5,000 political prisoners toward the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988. One of the judges who liberally handed death sentences was Ebrahim Raisi, who today is the chief of Iran’s judiciary.
Since the end of 2017, Iran has witnessed two massive, nationwide protests, as well as other sporadic protests like the one Afkari was arrested in, that have engulfed the Islamic Republic’s traditional support base that encompass religious, working-class rural and urban areas. The state’s crackdown in 2019 was far bloodier than ever before. Whereas before security forces primarily used street melee and arrests to crush protests, this time they opened fire from the onset. The death toll has been in the hundreds - 1,500 according to Reuters - surpassing in a matter of days the death toll of months of 2009 post-election protests.
Iran is facing more mass protests because the Islamic Republic because is incapable or unwilling to address society’s political and economic grievances. Reformists, who were instrumental in propelling Hassan Rouhani to presidency in 2013 and 2017, have experienced a crisis of public confidence since the 2017-2018 protests, as they have been unable or unwilling to deliver on promises to meaningfully implement reform through the ballot for over two decades.
Iranian officials are particularly concerned about economic triggers for more nationwide protests. The 2017-2018 protests started in response to skyrocketing staple prices, most notably eggs, and the 2019 protests followed sudden cuts to fuel subsidies; both then spread to encompass broader political and economic grievances aimed at the Islamic Republic. While re-imposed US sanctions designed to pressure Iran into a new nuclear deal have significantly damaged the Iranian economy and contributed to a plummeting currency, protesters called out the Islamic Republic itself rather than US sanctions before and after the US exit of May 2018, most notably in the bloody November uprising. Iranian newspapers openly discuss how corruption and mismanagement have hit Iran’s economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has compounded Iran’s economic misery, raising the risk of further economic-induced protests.
Indeed, while Iran has a long history of labor protests, strikes in August spread from strategic energy-sector facilities like petrochemicals and refineries in the south to the north. While a deputy minister recently blamed foreign media coverage of strikes, accusing them of a plan to “Syrianize Iran,” he did concede that calls for protests had tripled in the last year, and acknowledged that “some” Iranians were involved – a tacit recognition that protest calls were not just a foreign plot.
All signs suggest the Islamic Republic is expecting more protests. On this point, they are probably correct. Iranians will likely soon reach another boiling point, and Tehran will only commit more violence to cling to power at any cost.
*Amir Toumaj is an independent researcher focused on Iran who has experience in the private sector and think tanks. He has published dozens of articles and reports, and his research has appeared in congressional testimonies and prominent global media outlets.