LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
September 24/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Mary said, ‘My soul magnifies the Lord, and my spirit rejoices in God my Saviour, for he has looked with favour on the lowliness of his servant.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 01/46-55: “Mary said, ‘My soul magnifies the Lord, and my spirit rejoices in God my Saviour, for he has looked with favour on the lowliness of his servant. Surely, from now on all generations will call me blessed; for the Mighty One has done great things for me, and holy is his name. His mercy is for those who fear him from generation to generation. He has shown strength with his arm; he has scattered the proud in the thoughts of their hearts. He has brought down the powerful from their thrones, and lifted up the lowly; he has filled the hungry with good things, and sent the rich away empty. He has helped his servant Israel, in remembrance of his mercy, according to the promise he made to our ancestors, to Abraham and to his descendants for ever.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on September 23-24/2019
Billingslea in Lebanon to Meet Senior Officials
Aoun meets Task Force for Lebanon delegation in New York
Cabinet forms ministerial committee to discuss budget reforms
Hariri receives Billingslea
Berri meets with Billingslea, Lazzarini
Billingslea meets ABL Board of Directors, affirms US support for Lebanon's economy
Fuel importers and gas station owners postpone strike after meeting with Hariri
Chehayeb, Shamsi launch UAE 'Back to School' Project
Lebanon's European Theatre Festival 27 September to 12 October
Huawei Watch GT 2 runs LiteOS and lasts up to two weeks
Iranian Cleric Says ‘Hizbullah is Iran in Lebanon’
Govt. to Resume 2020 Budget Talks
Hariri to Meet Syndicate of Gas Station Owners to Counter Gas Crisis
Salameh Brushes Off 'Dollar' Concerns, Billingslea’s Visit

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 23-24/2019
Rouhani Heads to UN in Quest to Win Iran Support against US
Israel Hints at Iran in Drone Incident in Southern Syria
Israel President Invites Rivals to Break Elections Deadlock
Egypt Police Kill 15 Militants in Sinai
UN Envoy Concludes Damascus Talks on Constitutional Committee
Turkey Could Lose up to 700,000 Tourists Annually After Thomas Cook Collapse
China Backs US-Taliban Talks
Bouteflika Brother Stands Trial with Algerian Ex-Spy Chiefs
UK's Johnson Says Iran behind Attacks on Saudi Oil Sites

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 23-24/2019
Trump: “I Defeated the Caliphate”/Raymond Ibrahim/FrontPage Magazine/September 23/2019
The UN, Climate Change and Iranian ‘Warming’/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 23/2019
Analysis/The Sunni-U.S. Alliance Against Iran Has Weakened, and Trump Is Partly to BlameAmos Harel/Haaretz/September 23/2019
Evidence that Iran Violated the Nuclear Deal Since Day One?/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/September 23/2019
World can no longer turn blind eye to Houthi war crimes/Dr. Ahmed Othman/Arab News/September 23, 2019
Saudi oil attacks response helps calm market/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/September 23, 2019
Gantz government would mean annexation, war on Gaza/Ramzy Baroud/Arab News/September 23, 2019
Combat drones usher in era of ‘war by remote’/Jennifer Bill/Arab News/September 23, 2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on September 23-24/2019
Billingslea in Lebanon to Meet Senior Officials
Naharnet/September 23/2019
Treasury Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing Marshall Billingslea arrived in Lebanon for a two-day visit, which will include meetings with a broad range of Lebanese officials, the US Embassy in Beirut said in a statement on Monday.
During his visit, Billingslea will highlight the strong U.S. Lebanon partnership and the U.S. government’s overall confidence in the Lebanese financial sector, said the statement. In meetings with government and banking officials, the Assistant Secretary will encourage Lebanon to take the necessary steps to maintain distance from Hizbullah and other malign actors attempting to destabilize Lebanon and its institutions, it added.

Aoun meets Task Force for Lebanon delegation in New York
NNA -Mon 23 Sep 2019
President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, currently in New York to head Lebanon's delegation to the UN General Assembly meeting, received this afternoon (Beirut local time) at his "Plaza" Hotel suite a delegation of the American Task Force for Lebanon.
The delegation is headed by Edward Gabriel. The meeting was attended by Minister of State for Presidency Affairs Salim Jreissati, Lebanon's Ambassador to Washington Gabi Issa, Principle Advisor to the President Mireille Aoun Hashem, Presidency Media Bureau Chief Rafic Shalala, and Advisor Osama Khashab. Speaking at the beginning of the meeting, Gabriel thanked President Aoun for his continuous support for the work of the Organization and its role in strengthening relations and cooperation ties between Lebanon and the United States, especially in the field of enhancing grants and aid provided by the US Congress to Lebanon. Gabriel stressed "the Organization's permanent readiness to assist Lebanon in various fields, especially at the economic level."President Aoun, in turn, expressed appreciation for the work of the Organization internationally and regionally, shedding light on the reforms and measures taken by the Lebanese government to achieve economic growth in light of the new economic plan to convert Lebanon's economy from rentier to productive and to stimulate investment. The Head of State also outlined the most important measures adopted at the judicial level in terms of anti-corruption laws, enhancing transparency and monitoring the sources of waste in the public sector and the most vital facilities. Aoun also disclosed a vision to privatize certain sectors such as communications, energy and transport. The President deemed the economic situation in Lebanon as very critical due to the accumulations since 1990, and the impact of regional events, not to mention the burden of displacement. Aoun reiterated that Lebanon seeks revival once again through executing development projects, serious reforms, and a new budget that includes sufficient austerity measures that would give an impetus to the donor countries to start with the implementation of the CEDRE Conference decisions.

Cabinet forms ministerial committee to discuss budget reforms
NNA - Mon 23 Sep 2019
Following the cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Saad Hariri at the Grand Serail, the Minister of Information Jamal Jarrah read the following information:
We discussed budget articles and there was significant progress. Practically all articles were completed except some, which were postponed for further discussion. There are, of course, measures and reforms that will accompany the budget. A seven-member ministerial committee, that includes the Deputy Prime Minister and is headed by Prime Minister Hariri, was formed to discuss all procedures and reforms that should go alongside the budget, but are not necessarily within the budget. They can be through decrees that would be referred to the Parliament. With the end of the budget discussion, the procedures and reforms would have been discussed and approved and after that would be sent to the Parliament.
Question: Will the work of the ministerial committee be submitted to the Council of Ministers and then to Parliament?
Jarrah: The normal course is for the committee to present the outcome of its work to the Council of Ministers for approval. Either it would be included in the budget if it includes reforms or through a draft law referred to Parliament.
Question: Does this mean that the committee will discuss new fees and taxes?
Jarrah: Not necessarily new taxes or fees. We have important topics for reform that we all know and this committee will work on drafting them and putting them into effect.
Question: What about the Beirut Port?
Jarrah: The article was suspended in order to be dealt with in an appropriate manner.

Hariri receives Billingslea
Mon 23 Sep 2019
The President of the Council of Ministers Saad Hariri received at the Grand Serail the US Treasury Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing Marshall Billingslea and the accompanying delegation. They discussed the financial and economic relations between the two countries.

Berri meets with Billingslea, Lazzarini
NNA - Mon 23 Sep 2019
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Monday welcomed at his Ein Teeneh residence US Treasury Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing, Marshall Billingslea, who sufficed by saying in the wake of the meeting that he will be holding a press conference later in the evening to discuss hour issues.
Separately, Berri met with UN Deputy Special Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs, Philippe Lazzarini, with whom he broached the latest economic, financial, and humanitarian developments, as well as the Syrian refugee dossier and Lebanon's commitments towards CEDRE.

Billingslea meets ABL Board of Directors, affirms US support for Lebanon's economy
NNA - Mon 23 Sep 2019
The Board of Directors of the Association of Banks in Lebanon (ABL) held on Monday a work meeting with the US Treasury Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing, Marshall Billingslea, and his accompanying team members.
As per a statement by the ABL, it said Billingslea "the Lebanese banks' commitment to the international rules and standards to combat money laundering and financing of terrorism," stressing "the need to maintain these efforts in the interest of the sector."
Billingslea reiterated his country's support for the Lebanese economy, particularly the banking sector.

Fuel importers and gas station owners postpone strike after meeting with Hariri
NNA - Mon 23 Sep 2019
The President of the Council of Ministers Saad Hariri met today with a delegation from the Association of petroleum importing companies APIC, the Syndicate of gas stations owners and the Syndicate of tankers.
After the meeting, the President of APIC, Georges Fayad, spoke on behalf of the delegation. He said: “During the meeting, we addressed the issue of the dollar in relation to the import of petroleum products. We explained to Prime Minister Hariri the problem resulting from the absence of dollars. If the importer is not payed in dollars, he cannot continue to import. If companies cannot open dollar credit line, they will have to stop importing over time, creating a big problem. Prime Minister Hariri understood the problem. We told him that we are following it up with the concerned ministries and the Central Bank Governor. Everyone agrees that the problem needs a solution. But until today we have not seen any solution.
The Prime Minister promised that within 24 to 48 hours, he will meet with officials to find a solution to this issue. God willing, he will discuss the solution with us next Thursday. We will wait 48 hours to listen to his proposal.
Question: What about the strike?
Fayad: The decision has been put on hold because we will give Prime Minister Hariri 48 hours to study the issue.
Question: What steps will you take if the situation remains the same?
Fayad: The steps will come naturally. The import will stop gradually, with the stations that do not have dollars to import. There will be major problems. Those who cannot pay in dollars cannot import.
Question: The Central Bank Governor says there are dollars in banks?
Fayad: We are ready to open credit line in banks in dollars. If banks are willing to give us dollars, we have no problem. Banks are ready to open credit lines but are waiting for us to deposit dollars so they can pay the credits in dollars.
Question: There is talk about an increase in the import of petroleum fuels and that there is smuggling to Syria?
Fayad: We gave Prime Minister Hariri a list today of the quantities imported from 2015 until today, from all fuel materials. The quantities are still proportional from 2015 until today, and there is no smuggling. He asked whether there is any export of oil from Lebanon to abroad. We replied that the re-export takes place through a license called the re-export license issued by the Ministry of Energy. If this license is given, this can be seen at the customs and the ministry. The quantities exported are very little.
Electricity Committee
Hariri also chaired a meeting of the Ministerial Committee on Electricity studying Floating Storage and Regasification Unit- FSRU. Deputy Prime Minister Ghassan Hasbani and ministers Ali Hassan Khalil, Mohammad Fneish, Wael Abu Faour, Youssef Fenianos, Jamal Jarrah, Adel Afiouni, Camille Abu Suleiman and Nada Bustani and the Secretary General of the Council of Ministers Mahmoud Makiyeh attended. After the meeting, the Minister of Energy said that they agreed to continue the discussion after the cabinet meeting this evening.

Chehayeb, Shamsi launch UAE 'Back to School' Project
NNA - Mon 23 Sep 2019
National Education and Higher Education Minister, Akram Chehayeb, Minister of Education and UAE Ambassador to Lebanon, Hamad Saeed Al-Shamsi, on Monday toured Aley Official Mixed Middle School and Hussein Massoud High School in Bchamoun, at the start of the new academic year 2019. Minister Chehayeb and Ambassador Shamsi distributed school bags to students, as part of the "Back to Scool 2019" Project launched by the UAE Embassy-Humanitarian and Developmental Affairs Attache, under the rubric "Year of Tolerance."In his delivered word, Chehayeb hailed UAE's continuous, gracious aids to Lebanon. The Minister said today's project reflects the UAE's keenness on joint brotherly and cordial relations between the two countries. Ambassador Shamsi,in turn, hailed the role of the Minister in preserving Arab-Arab relations. The Ambassador said that today's project is carried out for the third year, supported by the Mohammed Ben Rashed Institute for Humanitarian Acts and the UAE Red Crescent. Shamsi said that Education forms the foundation of every state and the whole region, underlining that the Shamsi underlined that the UAE's support to Lebanon is ongoing. "Our humanitarian and development projects will not be interrupted, under the guidance of the UAE's wise leadership," Shamsi maintained. He announced that the UAE project targets around 25 schools, including 10,000 school bags and stationery.

Lebanon's European Theatre Festival 27 September to 12 October
NNA - Mon 23 Sep 2019
The European Union and Al Madina Theatre are proud to announce the second edition of Lebanon’s European Theatre Festival, which will be held from 27 September to 12 October throughout the cultural venues of Beirut. Lebanon’s European Theatre Festival is the firstevent of its kind in the region. It brings together the diverse cultural heritage of different European countries and promotes inter-cultural exchange between Europe and Lebanon. For the European Union, this festival, and theatre more broadly, is a powerful vehicle for freedom of expression. This second edition of Lebanon’s European Theatre Festival offers a rich 16-day programme of plays, workshops, panels and exhibitions, with the participation of more than 60 artists and theatre professionals. This year, the plays speak of issues such as social diversity, identity, migration, and others that both Lebanon and the European Union are faced with. Performances and other theatre activities with artists and theatre makers from ten different countries will take place in Beirut, including from Belgium, Denmark, France, Ireland, Italy, Germany, Poland, Spain, Romania, and Lebanon. A puppet performance Pulcinella, in collaboration with the Instituto Italiano di Cultura, will be held in Tripoli on 5 October at Azm Cultural Center. The festival's cultural offer targeting theatre students and professionals among others includes cutting edge and innovative workshops. Activities are focused on dramaturgy, scenography, narrative building, paper puppet making, creative processes’ and the use of new technologies to support the performing arts sector. The Art of the Polish Poster School exhibition will be showcased at Al Madina Theatre throughout the duration of the festival. The second edition of Lebanon’s European Theatre Festival will open on Friday 27 September with the French play Place, in collaboration with L'Institut Français du Liban. The opening night is by invitation only. Lebanon’s European Theatre Festival is co-funded by the European Union and organised in collaboration with the embassies and cultural institutes of Belgium, Denmark, France, Ireland, Italy, Germany, Poland, Spain and Romania. Our media partners are Annahar, L'Orient Le Jour and the Daily Star.Tickets are available at Al Madina Theatre, Librairie Antoine and Antoine Ticketing. The full programme is available on Al Madina Theatre's website and the festival's event pageon Facebook.

Huawei Watch GT 2 runs LiteOS and lasts up to two weeks
NNA - Mon 23 Sep 2019
Huawei is back with another smartwatch that’s focused on fitness. The Watch GT 2 runs Huawei’s homegrown LiteOS, not Google’s Wear OS, and it ships in two sizes with up to two weeks of battery life.
The 46mm model features a 1.39-inch OLED with 454 x 454 resolution and 22mm strap like last year’s Watch GT. The smaller, thinner, and lighter 42mm Watch GT 2 scales things back with a 1.2-inch OLED with 390 x 390 resolution and 20mm strap. Both watches are powered by Huawei’s homegrown Kirin A1 chipset, with Bluetooth 5.1, GPS, and optical heart rate sensors. A 5ATM rating means they’re water resistant at a depth of 50 meters for up to 10 minutes a time. They’re also loaded with sensors to make the most of the fitness tracking and stress monitoring features. And because it’s smartwatch, it’ll display all your app notifications right on your wrist.—The Verge

Iranian Cleric Says ‘Hizbullah is Iran in Lebanon’
Naharnet/September 23/2019
An Iranian cleric on Monday said that Iran is bigger than the “geographical” boundaries surrounding it and that the presence of armed factions supported by Iran in the Middle East, including “Hizbullah in Lebanon, are part of Iran,” the ISNA Iranian news agency said on Monday.
Ayatollah Ahmad Alam al-Huda was quoted by the agency as saying: “The Popular Mobilization in Iraq, Hizbullah in Lebanon, Ansar Allah (Houthis) in Yemen, the National Defense Forces in Syria and the Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Palestine, these are all Iran."Iranian Islamic cleric, al-Huda is the Friday Prayer leader in Mashhad. He is also that city's representative in the Iranian Assembly of Experts, and a member of Combatant Clergy Association.

Govt. to Resume 2020 Budget Talks
Naharnet/September 23/2019
Lebanon’s government will resume the 2020 budget talks on Monday and is expected to hold “intensive” meetings on a weekly basis in order to pass it to the Parliament before the constitutional deadline, al-Joumhouria daily reported.
Ministerial sources who spoke on condition of anonymity, said “today’s meeting at the Grand Serail at 4:00 p.m. will carry on from where it stopped during Thursday’s session which reached item 14 from the draft budget.”
Sources close to Prime Minister Saad Hariri said: “There is an orientation to finish the budget before October 15. There is no reason for any delay. The prime minister is open to scientific debate and objective ideas.”

Hariri to Meet Syndicate of Gas Station Owners to Counter Gas Crisis
Naharnet/September 23/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri is to meet with Syndicate of Gas Station Owners to counter a fuel crisis against the backdrop of lack of dollars needed to pay for the oil they purchase.Al-Joumhouria daily said the sector opts for escalating measures and threatens to kick off an "open-ended" strike.
The Syndicate of Gas Station Owners and fuel distributors argue that they get paid in Lebanese pounds but their importers accept to be paid only in dollars. Reports say that a slowdown in cash transfers from Lebanese nationals abroad have reduced the foreign currency reserves of Banque du Liban, “making it difficult for businesses to buy the dollars they need from banks.”A meeting will be held on Tuesday between oil importing companies to take the “appropriate” decisions, if talks between Hariri and the concerned parties reach a dead end, said al-Jخumhouria.

Salameh Brushes Off 'Dollar' Concerns, Billingslea’s Visit
Naharnet/September 23/2019
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh on Monday appeased concerns about the availability of the dollar currency in Lebanon’s banking sector, and brushed off fears about the visit of a US government official to Lebanon. “The dollar is available in the Lebanese banking sector. There is a lot of exaggeration,” assured Salameh. “BDL has its assets in dollars and there is no need for special measures or media intimidation,” he added. On concerns that the visit of Treasury Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing Marshall Billingslea to Lebanon could carry US sanctions on more Lebanese banks after sanctioning Jammal Trust Bank. Salameh said: “Billingslea’s visit is most welcome and it does not aim to tighten the noose on Lebanon. It aims to explain the motives behind sanctions at JTB”He stressed: “We are in constant contact with the US Treasury. It is in Lebanon's interest to have good relations with it.”

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 23-24/2019
Rouhani Heads to UN in Quest to Win Iran Support against US
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 23/2019
President Hassan Rouhani on Monday departed Tehran for New York to attend the UN General Assembly on a mission to win Iran support against "cruel" pressure from arch-foe the United States. Speaking to reporters before boarding his flight, Rouhani said his delegation was heading to the UN gathering despite reluctance from President Donald Trump's administration to issue them visas.Tehran and Washington have been at loggerheads since May last year when Trump abandoned a 2015 nuclear deal and began reimposing sanctions on Iran in a stated campaign of "maximum pressure". "When the Americans aren't willing (to let Iran participate), we must insist on travelling," Rouhani said. "It is essential for us to take part in the UN General Assembly and talk at various levels," he told a news conference at Tehran's Mehrabad airport. "The cruel actions that have been taken against the Iranian nation and also the difficult and complicated issues that our region faces with them need to be explained to the people and countries of the world."Rouhani said he would present an Iranian plan for peace in the Gulf to the UN General Assembly.
- 'Hormuz Peace Endeavour' -
Under the plan dubbed the Hormuz Peace Endeavour, or HOPE, he said, "all the coastal states of the Persian Gulf are invited to join this coalition to provide and maintain regional security". Tensions have flared in the Gulf since May when Iran began reducing its commitments under the nuclear deal and the US deployed military assets to the region. Tensions have escalated further in the wake of devastating September 14 attacks on Saudi oil installations that Washington and Riyadh have, to varying degrees, blamed on Tehran. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said "the UK is attributing responsibility with a very high degree of probability to Iran" for the attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, the UK's Press Association news agency reported Monday. Johnson was himself en-route to New York, where he was scheduled to meet with Iran's president. Since pulling out of the nuclear deal, the US has slapped waves of sanctions on Iran that have targeted its armed forces, financial sector and senior officials, including Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Iran has responded by scaling back its commitments under the 2015 deal that gave it the promise of sanctions relief in return for limiting the scope of its nuclear programme. The United States has said it would make its case against Iran at the UN meeting. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the US wanted to give diplomacy "every opportunity to succeed" in the wake of the attacks that set aflame Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq plant and the Khurais oil field. "Our administration's taking this on in a serious way and we are working diligently to see that this has a diplomatic outcome," he told ABC's "This Week" on Sunday. "But make no mistake about it, if we're unsuccessful in that and Iran continues to strike out in this way, I am confident that President Trump will make the decisions necessary to achieve our objectives."

Israel Hints at Iran in Drone Incident in Southern Syria
London, Damascus – Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 September, 2019
Israel denied any connection to a drone captured by Syrian regime forces near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend, hinting the aircraft belonged to the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Syria's state news agency (SANA) said Saturday that authorities had captured and dismantled a drone rigged with cluster bombs near the border with the Golan Heights, without specifying its source. The drone was intercepted by Syria's aerial defense system in the Hermon region, in northern Quneitra. It was downed after entering Syrian airspace from the west and passing over Erneh village, southwest of Damascus. Israeli military spokesman Avichai Adraee announced that the drone did not belong to the army, adding: “Today we saw the Syrians prove that [Quds Force commander Gen. Qassem] Soleimani does what he wants in Syria and definitely doesn’t tell the Assad regime what he is up to.”A Syrian military source explained that after dismantling the drone, engineering units found it was rigged with cluster bombs, in addition to the C4 explosive material, to be used to detonate and destroy the aircraft in the event of capture. He did not announce the date of the incident, nor the party suspected of sending it. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed the downing of the drone, but was unable to confirm if it was hit by forces of the Syrian regime or Hezbollah. On Thursday, Syrian anti-aircraft defenses downed another drone over Aqraba village, south of Damascus, also without specifying its origin. Damascus often accuses Israel of launching attacks against it. In recent years, Israel has carried out dozens of raids against Syrian military positions, Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah fighters. In recent weeks, the region witnessed numerous drone incidents between Israel and Syria and their allies, Hezbollah and Iran. On August 24, Israel raided targets in Aqraba, killing two Hezbollah members, to prevent what it described as an imminent drone attack. Hezbollah vowed in recent weeks to shoot down Israeli drones that violate Lebanese airspace, after an attack by two drones on the night of August 24-25, which the party accused Israel of carrying out in its stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut. On September 9, the party announced the downing of an Israeli drone while crossing the southern border of Lebanon.

Israel President Invites Rivals to Break Elections Deadlock
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 September, 2019
Israel's president invited the two main victors from the country's neck-and-neck election to meet Monday, seeking to break a deadlock that has complicated his task of trying to choose the country's next prime minister. While formally maintaining only a ceremonial role, President Reuven Rivlin must choose the candidate he believes is best positioned to form a majority coalition in parliament. But last week's do-over election was inconclusive, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conservative Likud party nor the centrist Blue and White led by former army chief Benny Gantz having a clear path to forming a government. "There is one thing that the people are largely united over and that is the desire that there won't be third elections," Rivlin said, according to The Associated Press. The likeliest outcome is a unity government between the two rivals. Both sides have said they support the idea, but they disagree over who will head it, and Gantz has vowed not to sit with Netanyahu so long as he faces a likely indictment over a number of corruption scandals. Rivlin on Monday wrapped up his second and final day of consultations with each party in parliament. Based on their recommendations, he must now select the candidate he deems has the best chance of forming a stable coalition. He is set to make his decision by Wednesday. In most elections, one of the major parties, along with smaller allies, controls a parliamentary majority. But that did not happen this time. Maverick politician Avigdor Lieberman, whose Yisrael Beitenu party controls eight seats, has refused to endorse either side and is pushing for a unity deal.
Rivlin's office announced that he would summon both Netanyahu and Gantz for a meeting later Monday. Rivlin will likely pick the candidate with the most recommendations, who will then have 28 days to try to cobble together a government. If the first candidate chosen fails within that time, the second is given the opportunity. If he too doesn't manage, the country could head to an unprecedented third election in less than a year. In Rivlin's first round of talks on Sunday, the Joint Arab List threw its support behind Gantz, the first time the Arab parties had recommended a candidate since 1992. Arab leaders said the decision was aimed at toppling Netanyahu, whose anti-Arab rhetoric has infuriated and offended Arabs in Israel during his decade in power. The backing promised to give Gantz slightly more support. But on Monday, three Arab lawmakers said they were withdrawing their recommendations for Gantz, trimming his support to below Netanyahu's. So far, a total of 55 lawmakers have recommended Netanyahu for prime minister, while 54 have endorsed Gantz. The prime minister needs at least 61 seats to have a parliamentary majority. Last week's repeat election produced no clear majority, with Blue and White receiving 33 seats in Israel's 120-member parliament and Netanyahu's Likud garnering 31 seats. Both sides therefore must seek the support of other parties. The vote last week was a never-before held second election, which was triggered after Netanyahu was unable to forge a coalition following April elections and then dissolved parliament. Netanyahu had hoped to secure a narrow majority of hard-line and religious parties that would grant him immunity from prosecution on charges that could include bribery, breach of trust and fraud. But now that possibility appears to be off the table. Israeli law does not require a sitting premier to resign if indicted. But if he is charged, as is widely expected, he will come under heavy pressure to step down. Netanyahu faces a hearing next month on the charges and indictments could follow soon thereafter.

Egypt Police Kill 15 Militants in Sinai
Cairo- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 September, 2019
Egyptian security forces say police have killed 15 suspected militants in a shootout in the restive northern part of the Sinai Peninsula. They say the shootout took place on Sunday when police raided the militants' hideout west of the Mediterranean city of el-Arish. Security officials say they found weapons and explosive materials in the hideout, and the bodies were taken to a nearby hospital for identification. Separately, they say six security forces were wounded when an explosive device hit their vehicle in the nearby town Sheikh Zuweid.
Officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the media. Egypt has battled an insurgency led by an ISIS affiliate for years in the Sinai Peninsula that has occasionally spilled over to the mainland.

UN Envoy Concludes Damascus Talks on Constitutional Committee
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 September, 2019
The UN special envoy for Syria said he held "successful" talks Monday with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem on forming a committee to draft a post-war constitution. "Today I have concluded another round of very successful discussions with Foreign Minister Moallem and we addressed all outstanding issues related to the constitutional committee," Geir Pedersen told reporters in Damascus. The diplomat said he also held "good discussions" with Nasr al-Hariri, the head of the Syrian Negotiation Commission opposition grouping. Syria's foreign ministry said the meeting with Pedersen was "positive and constructive", in a statement posted on its social media channels. The UN-backed push to form a constitutional committee has been bogged down by disagreements with President Bashar al-Assad's government over the makeup of the body. Damascus hopes to amend the current constitution, while the opposition wants to write a new one from scratch. Last week, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said an agreement had been reached concerning the "the composition of the committee". The committee is to include 150 members -- a third picked by the regime, another by the opposition, and the remaining third by the United Nations. The Kurdish administration in northeast Syria on Monday decried its exclusion from the committee as "unjust", saying it undermined the principles of democracy. Besides its composition, the mechanisms that will govern the committee's work have yet to be agreed on, prompting fears among diplomats that concrete progress is still months away. Numerous rounds of UN-led peace talks have failed to end a war that has killed more than 370,000 people and displaced millions since erupting in 2011 with the repression of anti-government protests. In recent years, a parallel negotiations track led by regime ally Russia and rebel backer Turkey has taken precedence. With key military backing from Russia, Assad's forces have retaken large parts of Syria from rebels and militants since 2015, and now control around 60 percent of the country.

Turkey Could Lose up to 700,000 Tourists Annually After Thomas Cook Collapse
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 September, 2019
The head of Turkey's Hoteliers Federation said on Monday the collapse of British tourism agency Thomas Cook means Turkey could see 600,000-700,000 fewer tourists annually. In an interview, Osman Ayik told Reuters there are currently 45,000 tourists in Turkey that came from the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe via Thomas Cook. The Federation's chairman added the company owes 100,000-200,000 pounds to some small hotels, which could suffer as a result of the collapse. Thomas Cook collapsed after failing to secure rescue funding, and travel bookings for its more than 600,000 global vacationers were canceled early Monday. UK's government said the return of the firm's 150,000 British customers now abroad would be the largest repatriation in its peacetime history, Reuters reported. The process began Monday and officials warned that delays are inevitable. The Civil Aviation Authority said Thomas Cook has ceased trading, its four airlines will be grounded, and its 21,000 employees in 16 countries, including 9,000 in the UK, will lose their jobs.

China Backs US-Taliban Talks
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 September, 2019
China voiced support Monday for negotiations between the US and Taliban after Chinese officials met the Afghan militants in Beijing, two weeks after US President Donald Trump called off talks on a proposed deal with the insurgents. Foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said China "hopes that the United States and the Afghan Taliban will maintain the momentum of negotiations". Geng also said Beijing "supports the internal dialogue and negotiations among the Afghans in order to achieve national reconciliation, peace, and stability at an early date". The Taliban said in a tweet that Beijing officials had supported the proposed US-Taliban deal, which could have seen Washington begin withdrawing troops. Trump called off talks earlier this month following the death of an American soldier in a bomb blast in Kabul. The Taliban's chief negotiator has since said the group's "doors are open" to resuming dialogue. Suhail Shaheen, spokesman for the Taliban's political office in Qatar, tweeted that a nine-member delegation led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar -- the group's top political leader -- had met with Chinese special envoy for Afghanistan Deng Xijun, and his delegation in Beijing. According to Shaheen, the two sides discussed the US-Taliban negotiations and the agreement, and the Chinese special envoy said the US-Taliban deal is "a good framework for the solution of Afghan issues and they support it". "We have begun the talks for resolving the Afghan issues and to reach an agreement with the US, and if the US President cannot stay committed to his words and breaks his promise, then he will be held responsible for any destruction and bloodshed in Afghanistan," Shaheen tweeted. In recent weeks there have been several violent attacks in Afghanistan, which is also gearing up for a presidential election.

Bouteflika Brother Stands Trial with Algerian Ex-Spy Chiefs
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 September, 2019
The brother of Algeria's deposed president Abdelaziz Bouteflika went on trial Monday with two former intelligence chiefs and a political party head accused of plotting against the military, Algerian television reported. Said Bouteflika, widely seen as the real power behind the presidency after his brother suffered a debilitating stroke in 2013, faces allegations of "undermining the authority of the army" and "conspiring" against the state. Former defense minister Khaled Nezzar has alleged that as protests mounted against the veteran leader in April, Said Bouteflika had considered declaring a state of emergency and firing army chief General Ahmed Gaed Saleh. His detention in May along with General Mohamed Mediene, who headed the all-powerful secret service for 25 years, and fellow ex-spy chief General Athmane Tartag was part of a wave of arrests targeting the ousted president's inner circle. They were brought before a military court in Blida, south of Algiers, along with the head of The Workers' Party, Louisa Hanoune, according to private television channels Ennahar and El Bilad. If convicted they could face lengthy prison terms. Security was tight with police blocking access by vehicles and pedestrians to the court's two entrances, according to an AFP photographer. Mediene, known as Toufik, headed the all-powerful DRS intelligence agency from its foundation in 1990 up to his fall from grace in 2015. Tartag, his deputy, succeeded Mediene and when the DRS was dismantled in 2016 he served as Algeria's security coordinator under the supervision of the presidency. Hanoune, a Trotskyist lawmaker and three-time presidential candidate, was detained in May on charges of involvement in "a plot against the army". Her lawyers have acknowledged that she took part in a meeting with Said Bouteflika and Mediene in March, a day after Gaed Saleh publicly called for the ailing president to step down. A string of prominent politicians and businessmen have been questioned or detained over alleged graft since Bouteflika resigned in April after two decades in power in the face of mass protests.Presidential elections have now been set for December 12, but protesters have kept up their demands for political reforms and the removal of the former president's loyalists, including the army chief himself.

UK's Johnson Says Iran behind Attacks on Saudi Oil Sites
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 23/2019
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson accused Tehran of being behind attacks on Saudi oil installations, in remarks to reporters en route to New York where he will meet with Iran's president. "I can tell you that the UK is attributing responsibility with a very high degree of probability to Iran for the Aramco attacks," he said, cited by Britain's Press Association news agency on Monday. He is due to meet with President Hassan Rouhani at the UN General Assembly in New York. He will also discuss the attacks at a joint meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
"We think it very likely indeed that Iran was indeed responsible for using both UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), both drones and cruise missiles," Johnson told reporters. "Clearly the difficulty is, how do we organise a global response? What is the way forward? "And we will be working with our American friends and our European friends to construct a response that tries to de-escalate tensions in the Gulf region." The United States has accused Tehran of carrying out air attacks on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq plant and the Khurais oil field on September 14, knocking out half the kingdom's oil production.
Iran denies responsibility for the attacks which were claimed by Iranian-back Huthi rebels in Yemen. Johnson said: "Clearly if we are asked either by the Saudis or the Americans to have a role then we would consider in what way we could be useful." The British premier also said he would raise the case of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian mother held in Tehran since 2016, when he meets with Rouhani. Johnson has been accused of making her plight worse when, in a previous job as foreign minister, he said she had been training journalists in Iran before she was arrested for sedition. Her family strongly denies this and he swiftly backtracked. Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a project manager with the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the media group's philanthropic arm, denies all charges.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 23-24/2019
Trump: “I Defeated the Caliphate”
Raymond Ibrahim/FrontPage Magazine/September 23/2019
On September 20, Donald Trump asserted that “I defeated the caliphate…. I defeated the caliphate — ISIS. ”
Is this true? Considering that Trump can passingly say that the sky is blue before the media and various “experts” rush to insist otherwise, naturally various elements deny this latest claim as well.
The facts, however, speak for themselves. According to a March 23 Independent report:
The Isis caliphate, which once stretched for thousands of miles across Iraq and Syria, has been declared defeated.
The Syrian Democratic Forces, a US-backed group of Kurdish and Arab fighters, announced on Saturday that it had captured the last territory held by the group.
“Syrian Democratic Forces declare total elimination of so-called caliphate and 100 percent territorial defeat of ISIS,” said Mustafa Bali, a spokesman for group.
“On this unique day, we commemorate thousands of martyrs whose efforts made the victory possible,” he added.
This is certainly a far cry from the status of ISIS under Trump’s predecessor, Barack H. Obama. The caliphate both declared itself and reached its strongest point during Obama’s eight year tenure (which is unsurprising as all sorts of Islamists—in Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Nigeria, etc.—came to power under Obama). As Trump said in the same recent interview, “when I came, the caliphate was all over the place.” He’s referring to the Syrian war, when Obama had supported a nebulous array of “freedom fighters” and “rebels”—many of whom turned out to be “Islamic terrorists,” some linked to and some arguably worse than ISIS. Even so, it must be remembered that the caliphate has only been defeated in a temporal sense; it remains very much alive as a pivotal idea in Islam.
The word “caliphate” (from Arabic khalifa) means “succession,” and refers to the successors or “caliphs” of Muhammad. As successors or stewards of the prophet, they were to uphold and enforce the mode of governance captured by his Sunna and Koran—in a word, Sharia.
From the death of Muhammad in 632 to 1924—for 1,292 years—much of the Muslim world was ruled by at least one caliphate (sometimes more than one in competition, e.g., Shia Fatimids vs Sunni Abbasids).
A Muslim historian recently underscored the importance of the caliphate:
All pious Muslims well-read in the Hadith (the compiled sayings of the Prophet) firmly believe in the need to establish an Islamic State headed by a Muslim Caliph. This is mentioned twice in the Holy Quran and it’s central to the Islamic faith. No Muslim scholar would debate an Islamic state and the caliphate.
But not only is the caliphate what Islam requires and an integral part of Muslim history; it’s what millions of modern day Muslims desire. According to a 2013 Pew report, “Overwhelming percentages of Muslims in many countries want Islamic law (sharia) to be the official law of the land, according to a worldwide survey by the Pew Research Center.”
Citing the same report, the authors of a 2018 book on Sharia concluded that 69% of Muslims in the Middle East and North Africa, 73% in South Asia, and 55% in Central Asia believe that “Sharia is God’s [Allah’s] divine revelation.” Even larger numbers “favored the establishment of Sharia as official law”: 99% in Afghanistan, 84% in South Asia, 74% in the Middle East and North Africa, and 64% in sub-Saharan Africa.
Here the pivotal question arises: Are the things that ISIS was notorious for doing—massacring and beheading “infidels,” giving non-Muslims three choices (Islam, jizya, or death), enslaving and sexually abusing infidel women and children, randomly destroying churches, in short, exhibiting intolerance and cruelty to non-Muslims at every turn—things a legitimate caliphate would do?
The answer is an emphatic YES. Every caliphate, from 632 to 1924, Sunni or Shia, engaged in all the same and even worse atrocities—and always validated their behavior by citing Sharia.
So we end with a good news/bad news scenario: yes, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria that declared itself in 2014 as the latest caliphate has been defeated; however, the very idea of what ISIS represented—a Sharia-compliant caliphate—is still in the hearts and minds of millions of pious Muslims.

The UN, Climate Change and Iranian ‘Warming’
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 23/2019
It is natural for all eyes to turn this week to the United Nations headquarters in New York. The annual General Assembly attracts leaders from across the globe with their concerns, fears and aspirations.
It is natural for climate change to top the UN’s concerns. We are speaking here of an imminent danger to our planet.
Global warming is threatening us with droughts and floods. A drop in snowfall and melting glaciers. A rise in temperatures and sea levels. It is bringing with it diseases and epidemics. This will mean the disappearance of coastal cities and islands. Many creatures will also disappear.
Years ago such talk would have been dismissed as exaggeration. Today, however, there is a general acknowledgment of the extent of the problem and its danger, in spite of US President Donald Trump’s claims. International scientific reports speak of climate change that could in coming decades lead to the displacement of millions of people within their own countries or beyond. The migration could negatively impact development, job opportunities and stability.
The issue has gone beyond ringing the alarm and has kicked off discussions about practical measures aimed at containing the impending problem. UN chief Antonio Guterres is giving climate change top priority with the backing of ngos, which have taken it upon themselves to urge world leaders to take tangible steps to save the planet from the damaging effect of global warming.
Climate change will not be the only issue that dominates General Assembly discussions and meetings. Another issue from the Middle East has imposed itself on the agenda. It is the crisis that was sparked by the hostile attack against Saudi oil facilities. The aggression is unique in its nature and danger because it is directed against the entire world by targeting global energy security and oil supplies.
An issue of such gravity requires patience for the results of investigations to be revealed. Pinpointing the location from where the missiles and drones were launched is important in order to set things straight about the attack and discuss measures to avert its recurrence. However, the images of Iranian weapons that were used in the attack have led to discussions about “Iranian fingerprints”. They were evident in all attacks carried out by the Houthi proxy in recent months.
It is certain that a problem exists in relations between the Iranian regime and the majority of countries in the region and between the regime and the majority of the world because the attack targeted the global economy.
Prior to the attack, President Hassan Rouhani could have presented before the UN Tehran’s version of the mounting tensions between it and Washington. He would have certainly talked about the use of economic sanctions as a weapon and the impact they are having on the Iranian people. It is no secret that his speech would have persuaded some of the attendees, especially since European countries are still striving to salvage the nuclear deal despite Washington’s withdrawal.
The picture now seems different.
In the eyes of many, Iran is accused of attempting to take energy supplies hostage. It is not demanding their release in exchange for the world to recognize its rights. But it is instead demanding that it recognize the breaches and infiltrations it has achieved in the Middle East in recent years. The world will find it difficult to believe Rouhani’s remarks on agendas to achieve stability in the region. They will also dismiss his claims that foreign military deployment in the region is the source of evil. It is clear for everyone to see that Iran, which is demanding the withdrawal of foreign forces in the region, is through its actions providing them with all reasons to stay and increase their numbers.
It is odd that Iran, which condemns foreign deployment, does not seek to assure countries in the region, but instead gives them more cause to worry. Days after the oil facilities attack, AFP reported Imam of Iran’s Mashhad city, Ayatollah Ahmad Alamolhoda, as saying: “Iran today is not just Iran. It is not limited to its geographic borders. The Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, National Defense Forces in Syria and Islamic Jihad and Hamas groups in Palestine are all Iran.” One could dismiss these remarks as sensationalist rhetoric had they not coincided with repeated similar statements by Revolutionary Guard generals about four Arab countries that are now in Iran’s sphere of influence.
It is clear that the Iranian regime is seeking to impose new conditions on the ground in the region and changing balances in the region and sometimes, even within countries. It is seeking to cement rhetoric and behavior that completely contradict international laws and the UN Charter. The regime is insisting on fanning the flames and refusing to transform into a state. It has turned the policy of exporting the revolution into reactors that send emissions to destabilize the region. The emissions lead to the fragmentation of countries and the violation of maps with missiles, drones and militias. The Iranian “warming” that changed the climate of the Middle East has turned into a regional and global problem.
It is not odd for New York to witness intense discussions about the dangerous global and Iranian warming emissions. It is a test to the global organization and the spirit of responsibility of players on the global arena.

Analysis/The Sunni-U.S. Alliance Against Iran Has Weakened, and Trump Is Partly to Blame
عاموس هاريل/الهآرتس: التحالف السني ضد إيران قد أصيب بالضعف والمسؤول جزئياً عن هذا الضعف هو ترامب
Amos Harel/Haaretz/September 23/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78777/%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b3-%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%ad%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b3%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%b6%d8%af-%d8%a5/
It seems the Saudis, too, may no longer want to risk a conflict with Tehran, especially when Trump’s reservations about a military clash are so clear – and Mideast leaders are busy with problems at home.
As is only natural, the coalition talks following the Knesset election are attracting most of the media attention in Israel. And Donald Trump is largely focusing on the complications, of his own creation, after a whistleblower complained about his alleged pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate Joe Biden.
But in between, strategic developments have been occurring in the Middle East; at their foundation is what looks like a major weakening of the pro-American and anti-Iranian alliance. In this too, unsurprisingly, Trump plays an important role.
Since entering office in January 2017, Trump has strengthened ties between the United States and the leaders of the conservative Sunni countries, many of whom still haven’t gotten over the trauma of the Barack Obama era. Still, the past few months haven’t been the best for any of these leaders and have influenced their relations with the current U.S. administration. This is set against the backdrop of animosity between them and Iran, alongside their growing frustration over what is seen in Sunni countries as worsening American feebleness toward Tehran.
At the beginning of August, the United Arab Emirates retreated from its commitment to the Saudis’ war in Yemen against the Houthi rebels, who are backed by Iran. In the middle of September, Saudi Arabia suffered the worst attack in its history from Iran when its oil production facilities were heavily damaged.
Without any direct connection, the government of Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi faces a new wave of protests against the stumbling economy and the repression of the opposition. The demonstrations are still on a small scale but they express a certain piercing of the fear barrier after years of violent repression by the regime. At the same time, in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who at least until recently Trump described as his close friend – is experiencing difficulties after last Tuesday’s election.
The bottom line is that all the regional leaders who supported Trump in his hard-line anti-Iran policy are now busy with their own problems and are suspicious about the U.S. president’s devotion to his previous strategy.
In May 2018, Trump announced that Washington was withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear deal after over a year of heavy pressure from Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Later, the Trump administration applied a policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran, while reimposing economic sanctions that badly damaged the Iranian economy.
In May, in light of the damage to its oil industry and wider economy, Iran changed its approach and attacked oil facilities and tankers of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In June, Iran shot down a very expensive American drone that Tehran claimed had entered its airspace, and in September it attacked two Saudi oil facilities using cruise missiles, though the Iranians have denied any connection. At the same time, Tehran announced steps that would be considered violations of its commitments to the 2015 nuclear deal.
The assumption in the West is that Iran’s leaders want to return to talks on the nuclear agreement but hope to do so on their own terms and transfer the pressure to the Americans and Europeans.
For now, the assessments of some intelligence agencies (including Israeli ones) haven’t come true; they thought the Iranian moves would hasten a summit between Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rohani at the UN General Assembly in New York next week. This meeting isn’t happening because of the Iranians, who want the sanctions lifted first, among other demands. Trump isn’t halting the process; he has said a number of times he’s willing to negotiate without preconditions, though now he’s trying to deny that.
The attacks on the oil installations exposed the incredible damage the Iranians can cause despite the enormous sums the Gulf states have spent on defense with American support. Saudi oil supplies have been hampered for at least a few months and oil prices have climbed. But as of now, the U.S. response has been limited to just an announcement of further sanctions on Iran and rumors of cyberattacks. Now some observers believe that Iran will launch even more attacks in light of the feeble American and Saudi responses.
On Sunday, The New York Times published an investigative report on Trump’s famous U-turn when in June he reversed his decision to attack military sites in Iran after a U.S. drone had been downed. It turns out that Trump halted the attack when the American planes were already in the air, minutes before the bombs would fall. Trump acted without informing Vice President Mike Pence, his cabinet secretaries and the military leadership.
Trump later justified his decision on the estimate by Pentagon lawyers that about 150 Iranians would be killed. But it seems much broader considerations were at work related to Trump’s justified fear of a regional conflict that would cost many more American lives and dollars. Trump is also wary that another war, which would affect the oil markets, would hurt his chances of reelection in just a little more than a year.
These considerations also limit the nature of the American response to the most recent attacks, but this is joined by the Saudis’ hesitancy. It seems the Saudis too are no longer sure they want to risk a conflict with the Iranians, especially when Trump’s reservations about a military confrontation are so clear.
Washington’s Iran policy seems to be at an impasse at the moment. U.S. allies in the Middle East have their doubts, as well as their own headaches at home. Iran continues to walk on the edge, despite the danger that at some stage the Americans will respond in force.
Is all this leading to a rethink, in the United States or in Israel, about the wisdom of the U.S. withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal – despite the many reservations of senior intelligence officials from both countries? For now, no remorse is being heard – at least not in public – in Washington or Jerusalem.

Evidence that Iran Violated the Nuclear Deal Since Day One?
د.مجيد رافيزادا/معهد كايتستون: هناك اقباتات بأن إيران خالفت بنود الإتفاق النووي من اليوم الأول
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/September 23/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78779/%d8%af-%d9%85%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%a7-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d9%83%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%a7%d8%ab%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa%d8%a7%d8%aa/
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14910/iran-nuclear-deal-violations
The IAEA first ignored the reports about Iran's undeclared clandestine nuclear facilities. This should not come as a surprise: the IAEA has a long history of misreporting the Islamic Republic's compliance with the deal and declining to follow up on credible reports about Iran's illicit nuclear activities.
New evidence shows that Iran's theocratic establishment was most likely violating the nuclear agreement since the day that Obama's administration and Tehran struck the deal in 2015.
The international community would truly do itself a great service to recognize that the nuclear deal was nothing more than a pro-mullah agreement which provided Iran's ruling clerics with billions of dollars to pursue their anti-American, anti-Semitic, anti-Iranian people and pro-terror activities, while simultaneously providing cover for Iran to pursue its nuclear ambitions.
The Iranian government is advancing its nuclear program at a faster pace. Recently, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) declared that Tehran took the third step in increasing its nuclear activities by activating advanced centrifuges: 20 IR-4 and 20 IR-6 centrifuges.
The previous two steps that Tehran took included: increasing the enriched uranium stockpile beyond the 300kg cap, which was set by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and enriching uranium to levels beyond the limit of 3.67 percent.
As part of its rush to a nuclear breakout capability, the Islamic Republic of Iran is also expanding its research and development work beyond the limitations set by the JCPOA. Iranian nuclear agency spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi told a televised news conference, "We have started lifting limitations on our Research and Development imposed by the deal ... It will include development of more rapid and advanced centrifuges."
The ruling mullahs are claiming that Iran's recent moves and violations of the nuclear deal are the fault of the US government, because the Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA, but the claim is a lie. New evidence shows that Iran's theocratic establishment was most likely violating the nuclear agreement since the day the Obama administration and Tehran struck the deal in 2015.
To clarify: Do you remember when the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Yukiya Amano immediately to inspect an "atomic warehouse" in Iran last year?
Netanyahu stated in his speech to the UN General Assembly that Iran had a "secret atomic warehouse for storing massive amounts of equipment and material from Iran's secret nuclear weapons program." Tehran claimed that the warehouse, which is located in a village (Turquz Abad) in the suburbs of Tehran, was a place where carpets were cleaned.
At the same time, two non-partisan organizations based in Washington, DC -- the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) and the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) -- released detailed reports about Iran's undeclared clandestine nuclear facilities as well.
The IAEA first ignored the reports. This should not come as a surprise: the IAEA has a long history of misreporting the Islamic Republic's compliance with the deal and declining to follow up on credible reports about Iran's illicit nuclear activities. Iran's clandestine nuclear sites in Natanz and Arak were revealed by the opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran.
In any event, after a significant amount of pressure was imposed on the IAEA, and after the IAEA's chief passed away and Iran was reportedly able to moving the suspected materials out of the secret nuclear facility, inspection of the site was recently implemented.
What was the outcome? Even though the Iranian leaders had cleaned up the facility, the IAEA's inspectors were able to detect traces of radioactive uranium at the site. Israel's warning and other reports had proved accurate.
Now, Tehran is declining to answer the IAEA's questions about the secret facility. More importantly, one of the most basic requirements of the nuclear deal (while it lasted) was that Iran had to reveal its nuclear activities to the IAEA -- a condition with it even overtly failed to comply.
In other words, the detection of radioactive particles in Turquz Abad, Iran's reluctance to answer simple questions about the secret facility and non-partisan evidence about Iran's nuclear activities at the location, all point to the fact that Tehran was most likely violating the nuclear deal since it was reached.
Where, you may ask, are the strong advocates of the nuclear deal after the new evidence revealed that Iran has long been violating the nuclear deal and pursuing its nuclear ambitions? They are silent.
The international community would truly do itself a great service to recognize that the nuclear deal was nothing more than a pro-mullah agreement which provided Iran's ruling clerics with billions of dollars to pursue their anti-American, anti-Semitic, anti-Iranian people and pro-terror activities, while simultaneously providing cover for Iran to pursue its nuclear ambitions.
The Iranian government is advancing its nuclear program at a faster pace. Recently, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran declared that Tehran has activated advanced centrifuges
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US foreign policy. He can be reached at
*Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
N.B: Picture enclosed:
Pictured: The Natanz nuclear enrichment facility in Iran. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

World can no longer turn blind eye to Houthi war crimes
Dr. Ahmed Othman/Arab News/September 23, 2019
Since the war in Yemen started more than four years ago, the world has been focusing on the human suffering caused by the coalition air strikes, which have been carried out mainly by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Although the tragic human suffering unintentionally caused by the airstrikes deserves to be given maximum attention, it is difficult to understand how such little attention has been given to the Houthis’ enormous crimes.
For more than four years, Houthi insurgents in Yemen, who are funded, trained, armed and controlled by Iran, have been committing atrocities and war crimes. In its 2018 report on Yemen, Human Rights Watch stated that “Houthi forces have repeatedly fired artillery indiscriminately into Yemeni cities and launched indiscriminate ballistic missiles into Saudi Arabia. Some of these attacks may amount to war crimes.” Similarly, Amnesty International announced this year that “Houthi forces, which controlled large parts of the country, indiscriminately shelled residential neighborhoods and launched missiles indiscriminately into Saudi Arabia.”
In July 2017, the Houthis targeted the holy city of Makkah with a ballistic missile that was, fortunately, intercepted by Saudi air defenses 69 kilometers before it reached its target. The attack took place at a time when Makkah was crowded with pilgrims, including visitors from all over the world. In May this year, the Houthis again attempted to hit Makkah, this time launching two ballistic missiles, which were again intercepted before hitting their target.
This indiscriminate targeting of civilian targets in Saudi Arabia has not stopped for more than four years. The two heavily populated cities of Jizan and Najran have been attacked on an almost weekly basis by both drones and ballistic missiles. Many civilians have been either killed or injured as a result.
On July 18 this year, the Houthis launched a drone attack on a major oil refinery near the Saudi capital Riyadh, which resulted in a fire in parts of the refinery. Last month, the group launched a drone attack on the Shaybah oilfield and its refinery. And, most recently, the Houthis claimed responsibility for a drone and missile attack on the Saudi Aramco facilities of Abqaiq and Khurais, causing destructive fires at both. All these attacks were not only certain war crimes, but also threatened oil supplies and consequently the world economy.
In Yemen itself, the Houthis’ atrocities, war crimes and crimes against humanity are beyond description. They span from torture, kidnap, rape and recruiting children as soldiers to the widespread indiscriminate bombing of heavily populated cities. In its 2019 report, Human Rights Watch stated: “Houthi attacks have struck populated neighborhoods in Yemen, having a particularly devastating impact on Taiz, Yemen’s third largest city... Houthi forces have used landmines in governorates across Yemen, killing and wounding civilians and preventing their return home.”
The indiscriminate targeting of civilian targets in Saudi Arabia has not stopped for more than four years.
It is well known that the Geneva Convention of 1864, the four 1949 Geneva Conventions and the two 1977 Additional Protocols all prohibit the deliberate targeting of civilians and civilian facilities, and call for the protection of persons not or no longer taking part in hostilities.
The Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court states in article 8 that war crimes include: “Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities; intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law; intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, as long as they are entitled to the protection given to civilians or civilian objects under the international law of armed conflict; and intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military objectives.”
Many of the rules contained in these protocols and treaties are considered part of customary law and, as such, are binding on all states (and other parties to conflict), whether or not the states have ratified the treaties themselves.
The Houthis do not hide their intentions with regard to their attacks. They issue press releases and hold press conferences to announce their responsibility for every attack on civilian targets. The world’s silence regarding the Houthis’ continuing atrocities, war crimes and crimes against humanity is totally incomprehensible. On August 3 — that is seven weeks ago — many local and international news channels reported that 147 Yemeni civil society organizations had issued a joint statement denouncing regional and international silence on the crimes of the Houthi rebels. For the sake of the dignity of international law, it is time for this unacceptable disgrace to end.
• Dr. Ahmed Othman Altuwaijri is a former dean of the College of Education at King Saud University in Riyadh and a former member of the Shoura Council in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi oil attacks response helps calm market
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/September 23, 2019
During a trip organized by Saudi information ministry, a security guard stands alert in front of Aramco's oil processing facility after the recent Sept. 14 attack on Aramco's oil processing facility in Abqaiq, near Dammam city. (AP)
What a difference a week makes. After the drone and missile attacks on Saudi installations in Abqaiq and Khurais, oil shot up $12 per barrel, or 20 percent. This constituted the largest daily increase since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. The attacks knocked 50 percent of Saudi Arabia’s production offline and spooked the markets beyond the oil patch. A lot depended on how both Saudi Aramco and the Kingdom would react. By Tuesday, prices were down to about $64 per barrel as President Donald Trump indicated a willingness to tap into the US’ strategic reserves if necessary, and as Saudi Aramco said it would be able to return to the pre-strike production level of just under 10 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of September. The Kingdom’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman indicated that Aramco would achieve 12 million bpd capacity by the end of November.
Aramco came through and proved once more that it is an extraordinarily well-run company with a good communications strategy, informing media and markets of developments as soon as possible. Foreign journalists were given access to the facilities to see and broadcast to the world the damage inflicted by the attacks. It also showed that the leadership in the Kingdom kept its cool and assessed what needed to be done together with its allies. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the UAE’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan. The upshot of his visits was that the US and its allies would beef up maritime security and America would station more troops in the Kingdom. This makes sense in order to guarantee free passage of oil vessels and to beef up the in-country air security.
A Saudi military spokesman assured the press that the Kingdom’s defense apparatus had so far averted more than 200 missile strikes. Drones are a different matter and are harder to detect. We should not judge too harshly though. New avenues of attack put every country on the back foot — 9/11 serves as a prime example, as the US was totally unprepared for airplanes being used as weapons. Last December, Gatwick Airport also proved just how tricky drones are, as it had to be shut down for about two days. In the Kingdom, the powers that be have understood the problem and are working on it with the help of their American allies. Aramco came through and proved once more that it is an extraordinarily well-run company with a good communications strategy.
Meanwhile, Aramco did its best to supply its customers with the help of inventories it holds across the globe. This is especially important in Asia, where the biggest customers of Saudi crude oil are. Japan, for instance, depends on Saudi Arabia to provide 40 percent of its crude imports. So far, only one Japanese offtaker is reported to have encountered some supply shortage.
There are a few questions remaining. The Gulf Cooperation Council states are an island of stability in a sea of unrest and military conflict, but the attacks have proven that, while Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and the UAE can ensure in-country stability, they cannot take themselves out of the region.
This brings with it the question of Aramco’s obvious dependence on the Abqaiq processing facility — an issue that will need to be looked at. It also brings to light the dependence of the world’s oil supply on the Kingdom’s spare capacity, which is estimated to be about 2 million bpd.
All in all, the markets are still relatively oversupplied as a wall of non-OPEC supply, exceeding 2 million bpd, is set to hit international markets by the end of this year and into 2020. At the same time, demand growth has been more sluggish due to the US-China trade war and the overall muted outlook for the global economy. The oil price has tethered around the $63 to $64 mark. It stood at $63.51 in early Monday trading, down somewhat after it had spiked when a Wall Street Journal article reported concerns as to whether Saudi production could really be fully restored by the end of the month.
We should probably worry less about the short-term picture and more about what an adequate reflection of geopolitical risk should look like. Both Aramco and the Kingdom are working to address both short and long-term concerns.
• Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macroeconomist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources

Gantz government would mean annexation, war on Gaza
Ramzy Baroud/Arab News/September 23, 2019
Experience has taught Palestinians not to pay heed to Israeli elections. But every rule has its exception.
Although it is still true that no Israeli Zionist leader has ever been kind to the Palestinian people, the dynamics of last week’s Israeli elections are likely to affect the Occupied Territories in a profound way.
Indeed, the outcome of the elections seems to have ushered in a new age in Israel, ideologically and politically. But the same claim can also be made regarding its potential influence on Palestinians, who should now brace themselves for war in Gaza and annexation in the West Bank.
Former Chief of General Staff of the Israeli Defense Force Benny Gantz, who orchestrated the destructive war on the besieged Gaza Strip in 2014, is likely to be tasked with the job of forming Israel’s new government. Gantz in January boasted about sending “parts of Gaza back to the Stone Age.”
There is little discussion in the Israeli and, by extension, Western media of Gantz’s numerous alleged war crimes during the Gaza conflict. The focus is mainly placed on the fact that he seems to have finally dislodged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from the position he has held for a total of nearly 13 years — a scenario that was, until recently, deemed inconceivable.
The leader of the Blue and White alliance had plotted the ouster of Netanyahu back in January 2018, when he formed the Israel Resilience Party. Following several political mergers and a strong showing in the previous elections in April, the centrist politician has finally edged past Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party. With 33 seats in the Israeli Knesset compared to Likud’s 31, Gantz now needs a broad coalition to rule Israel. The vehemently anti-Palestinian politician has made it clear that he will not enter into a coalition with the Joint List, the alliance of various Palestinian political parties. The latter managed to achieve an outstanding 13 seats, making it the third-largest political force in Israel.
But, according to Gantz’s previous statements, including Arab parties in any coalition he leads is out of the question, despite the fact that Ayman Odeh, the leader of the Joint List, on Sunday recommended him for prime minister.
Odeh said the Joint List’s endorsement was “a clear message that the only future for this country is a shared future, and there is no shared future without the full and equal participation of Arab-Palestinian citizens.” But, even with the Arab parties’ backing, Gantz would still fall short of a majority, as he would only be guaranteed a maximum of 57 seats in the 120-member Knesset.While the ‘king of Israel’ has finally been dethroned, Palestinians have little to rejoice over
Gantz’s Blue and White subsequently “downplayed the endorsement” because, according to the Jerusalem Post, not all Joint List members agreed with Odeh’s decision.
It is now likely that Gantz will seek a coalition government that includes Likud, along with Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu. Lieberman, the country’s ultranationalist former defense minister, has restored his previous “kingmaker” status by winning eight seats. He, too, is keen on such a coalition. Gantz is open to such a scenario, with one condition: Netanyahu should stay out. While the “king of Israel” has finally been dethroned, Palestinians have little to rejoice over. True, Netanyahu has destroyed any chance of a just peace in Palestine through the entrenching of the illegal military occupation and inhumane siege of Gaza. However, future possibilities are equally grim, if not more so. Once upon a time, the outright discussion of annexing large parts of the Occupied Territories was restricted to the margins of Israel’s political discourse. This is no longer the case. The call for annexing major illegal settlement blocs, along with the Jordan Valley, is now a common demand made by all of Israel’s main political parties, including the Blue and White.
Gantz has repeatedly made it clear that he would be strengthening, rather than dismantling, the illegal settlements in the West Bank, and has even attempted to take ownership of Netanyahu’s pledge to annex the Jordan Valley. “We are happy that the prime minister has come around to adopt the Blue and White plan to recognize the Jordan Valley,” Gantz’s party said in a statement shortly before election day. The annexation of these areas would amount to illegally seizing more than 60 percent of the West Bank. Given that Israel has successfully normalized the concept of annexation in its own political discourse — and that it has already received an American nod on the matter — it is just a matter of time before such a step takes place. The likelihood of it taking place sooner rather than later is suggested by the fact that a broad center-right, ultranationalist coalition would serve as an insurance to Israel’s leadership in case of a political or security fallout once the decision is taken and enforced. That political insurance simply means that no single party or official would bear the blame or shoulder the consequences alone, should Palestinians rebel or the international community push back against the flagrant Israeli violation of international law. The same logic is applicable to the case of a future war on Gaza. Israel has been itching for a major military campaign in Gaza since its last onslaught in 2014. Since then, Gaza has been bombed numerous times, and hundreds of innocent lives have been lost. But Netanyahu steered clear of an all-out war, fearing a high death toll among his soldiers and the blame game that often follows such military misadventures.
Mandated by a large coalition, bringing together Israeli army generals, right-wing politicians and ideologues, Gantz would feel far more empowered to go to war, especially since the former military chief has repeatedly accused Netanyahu of being “weak” on Gaza, “terrorism” and security.
If a future war goes as planned, Gantz would be happy to claim the accolades of victory; if it does not due to Gaza’s stiff resistance, the political damage is likely to remain minimal.
When it comes to war, Gantz is Netanyahu on steroids. He has participated in, orchestrated or led many military campaigns, including ones aimed at suppressing any resistance in Gaza, in Lebanon and during the previous popular uprisings. For Gantz, war is the answer, as indicated by one of his campaign slogans: “Only the strong survive.”While it is typical, and understandable, to dismiss all Israeli governments as one and the same, a Gantz-led coalition would possess the needed political legitimacy, popular mandate and strategic tools to achieve what Netanyahu himself couldn’t: A new war on Gaza and annexation of the West Bank.
• Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and editor of Palestine Chronicle. His latest book is “The Last Earth: A Palestinian Story” (Pluto Press, London). Baroud has a Ph.D. in Palestine Studies from the University of Exeter. Twitter: @RamzyBaroud

Combat drones usher in era of ‘war by remote’
Jennifer Bill/Arab News/September 23, 2019
ABU DHABI: It is a new chapter in Middle East warfare. Experts say “war by remote” is a growing trend in the region. And most countries are insufficiently prepared to deal with the growing security challenge posed by high-tech, remote-controlled unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or combat drones.
A combination of widespread availability, increasing technological sophistication and falling costs of drones is injecting a new dose of geopolitical uncertainty into the Middle East and North Africa.
Bigger armies with more lethal weaponry are finding themselves increasingly vulnerable as weaponized drones turn into a critical element of asymmetric warfare.
Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, has been following warfare in the Middle East for the last 20 years. According to him, the region is now “seeing players from all sides using drones — whether they are a very small group such as (Daesh) terrorists or a group with Iranian support” such as Yemen’s Houthi militias, who have claimed responsibility for repeated attacks on Saudi civilian infrastructure. The Houthis have claimed responsibility for the Sept. 14 attacks on the Saudi Aramco oil-processing facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, which caused damage that halved the crude output of the world’s top oil exporter. However, a US official has said the strike originated from southwestern Iran.
FASTFACT
60% - Israel’s estimated share of global unarmed UAVs market
Saudi Arabia has said 18 drones, along with seven missiles, were used in the attacks. Iran has denied any involvement, but it is widely suspected of having armed its regional proxies, notably the Houthis, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Shia paramilitary groups in Iraq, with combat drones.
UAV refers to all types of small and mid-sized devices with no pilot in them. They can be controlled remotely by a ground-based pilot or can fly following a pre-defined flight plan.
Advanced drone models use GPS signals from satellites to connect as well as communicate their location to the pilot.
A UAV can be used for anything from simple photography, to surveillance, to carrying payloads including explosives and missiles.
The Reaper model, for instance, can carry more than 1.5 tons of ordnance and can be operated from by a ground-based pilot stationed hundreds of miles away.
The threat has been growing over the years, says Knights. “Almost everywhere you look nowadays, drones are being used for surveillance or for crashing into targets, drones that have explosives on them, or drones — the most recent versions — that drop bombs and are reusable.”
The Houthi militias have been using UAVs in combat since the start of the Yemen war. They first appeared to be elementary, off-the-shelf models, but later ones have been nearly identical to Iranian-designed UAVs.
Targets have included the holy city of Makkah, airports, royal residences, oilfields and pipelines, oil installations and desalination plants.
An Iranian Army Air Defense Force drone is unveiled during a ceremony in the capital Tehran. Iran is suspected by the US of being behind the drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in the Kingdom on Sept. 14, 2019. (AFP)
UN investigators have suggested that the Houthis’ new UAV-X drone may have a range of up to 1,500 kilometers, which means they would be able to reach Saudi Arabia and the UAE from Yemen.
In mid-May this year, drone warfare grabbed the headlines when oil tankers and pipelines were targeted by remote-controlled bombs that forced Saudi Aramco briefly to suspend pipeline operations.
The UN said the Houthis were using small and medium-sized UAVs for reconnaissance, surveillance and attacks.
Incidentally, the country that was the first to create a national drone program in its military was Israel.
Companies such as Elbit Systems, Israel Aerospace Industries, Rafael, UVision and Aeronautics have been developing new technologies for both waging drone warfare and countering UAV attacks.
For decades now, Israel has invested in drone technology as part of its defense-arsenal mix. The strategy has proven its usefulness for a highly security-conscious country with multiple borders.
Israel has used combat drones to track and strike targets far beyond its geographical borders instead of sending manned aircraft deep into enemy airspace.
“Israel has dozens of drones. Some drones have range as short as 10,000 miles. Others can travel from 20,000 miles to hundreds of thousands of miles,” Knights said.
Yossi Mekelberg, a professor of international relations at Regent's University London, said the Middle East is “seeing more and more unmanned vehicles” on the battlefield.
“The thing is, drones are cheaper — you don’t risk pilots by using them as it’s all remote-controlled,” he told Arab News.
“It is high-tech, it is precise and, in many ways unfortunately, it will become the preferred option where possible.”
Israel’s defense industry produces drones such as the Heron TP, which can fly more than 1,000 kilometers for 30 hours, to monitor threats from Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria.
Drones such as the SkyStriker and Harpy, which are equipped with warheads and can launch precise long-range strikes, belong to the category known as “loitering munitions.”
The most advanced users of drones “by far are Iran and Iranian-backed groups such as the Houthi militias in Yemen,” said Knights.
As examples, he cites airborne drones and stealth amphibious drone boats, such as nine Houthi explosive boats designed to target international shipping off Yemen’s Red Sea coast that were destroyed by airstrikes carried out by the Saudi-led military coalition.
“A drone boat guides itself using an electrical eye,” he said. “I have been on one. You can hear it try and turn the rudder of a ship. So the Iranians have provided the Houthis with really advanced capabilities: Drones that can hit and destroy with great precision.”
In this context, Yemen has been a testing ground for Iran-backed forces. “Basically, it is like a battle laboratory where Iran can test out these new capabilities. That is what Yemen is to them,” Knights said.
According to Knights, drones have been in play for more than two decades — a lot longer than most people think.
“They were used in the Iran-Iraq War while the Americans used drones as far back as the Vietnam War,” he said. “But drone use is now really starting to accelerate.”
According to Knights, Daesh, while fighting wars in Iraq and Syria, was the first to start using drones “extensively ... both for surveillance and bomb-dropping.”
The battle for Mosul — a huge military operation to recapture Iraq’s second-largest city from Daesh — was a “real turning point” in the use of drone warfare.
“This was when ISIS (Daesh) really upped the ante,” Knights said, adding that Daesh used helicopter drones to both “look around the neighborhood” and to spread fear.
Other militant groups have not been far behind. A UN Security Council report said the most commonly used UAV in the Houthi arsenal for “loitering munitions” was Qasef-1, which had a lot in common with the Iranian made Ababil-2/T UAV, which has been used in Yemen since 2016.
The UN investigators found that the new UAVs are characterized by distinctive V-shaped tail fins and a more powerful engine.
One of them, the Samad 2/3 UAV, carries a warhead with 18 kilograms of explosives mixed with ball bearings.
Hezbollah too is developing its drone technology. The Lebanese militia has been using combat drones based on Iranian designs since 2004, flying them into or near Israeli airspace.
Hezbollah is also said to have used drones in Syria to support the regime of President Bashar Assad.
Knights said all this is happening because drone technology is relatively simple. “As a result, particularly for small drones made of fiberglass and used by remote control and with nothing particularly complicated by it, anyone can pretty much operate them,” he said.
These images from a video broadcast by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on July 19, 2019, reportedly shows footage obtained from an IRGC drone flying above an aircraft carrier in the Strait of Hormuz before it was shot down by the US Navy. (AFP)
“What the Iranians have done is they have developed a good formula. You only send to Yemen, for example, the specific electronic program.
"Inside Yemen, there are drone-making workshops using stuff you can legally buy off the open market, such as fiberglass.
“Iranians have learned to go low-tech and this has allowed groups in Yemen to use drones. It might seem very high-tech but it’s actually quite low-tech.”
From all accounts, Knights says, Israel’s dominance in drone warfare is being challenged by Iran and its regional allies and proxies.
Experts say drones are useful in an important way: deniability. For example, Israel is widely suspected to have been the source of the drones that were deployed in Iraq and Lebanon in recent weeks, but the Israeli government saw no reason to own up.
“You don’t risk pilots in doing this,” said Knights, adding “you can deny you are behind any attack, which means it might sometimes be tempting for decision-makers to use it in their war and deny using it or to create battlefield ambiguity.”
None of this is to say weaponized drones do not have their downsides. Knights said that once detected, drones can be destroyed instantly.
“You can send a signal to blow itself up and zap it once it gets closer to its target,” he told Arab News.
“You can shoot it down using a number of weapons, from an expensive missile to guns, sniper rifles, or even guns that fire nets, and snare it.”
A drawback about a drone guided by GPS, according to Knights, is “you can know exactly where it started if it is still intact.”
He pointed to an incident of a drone boat captured by Saudi authorities. The GPS coordinates and images, released by the US, pointed the finger at the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Tehran.
“In the camera … you could see all the IRGC members bored in their lavatories, taking pictures of themselves. It was almost laughable,” said Knights.
“Drones, if captured intact, leave a digital footprint. Deniability is not perfect with these things.”
Additionally, as Mekelberg points out, drone warfare is not risk-free, citing the incident earlier this month when Hezbollah downed an Israeli unmanned aircraft outside a southern Lebanese town.
“It (drone use) brings a danger — when in Lebanon it didn’t go exactly to plan — it created tensions which could have led to a much bigger round of tensions between Hezbollah and Israel,” he said.
Furthermore, he says, with drones showing their growing value on the battlefield, more and more terror groups are turning to unmanned aircraft.
With the growing threat, Mekelberg said more countries need to step up their airspace security platform that detects, classifies, and mitigates all drone threats.
“Some countries have anti-drone systems, but drones are getting more advanced and sophisticated and lots of countries are not equipped to deal with it,” he said.
If recent developments are any guide, the world has yet to see the full capability of combat drones in the sprawling Middle East war theater.