LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 29/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.october29.19.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006

Bible Quotations For today
Owe no one anything, except to love one another; for the one who loves another has fulfilled the law
Letter to the Romans 13/08-14/:”Owe no one anything, except to love one another; for the one who loves another has fulfilled the law. The commandments, ‘You shall not commit adultery; You shall not murder; You shall not steal; You shall not covet’; and any other commandment, are summed up in this word, ‘Love your neighbour as yourself.’Love does no wrong to a neighbour; therefore, love is the fulfilling of the law. Besides this, you know what time it is, how it is now the moment for you to wake from sleep. For salvation is nearer to us now than when we became believers; the night is far gone, the day is near. Let us then lay aside the works of darkness and put on the armour of light; let us live honourably as in the day, not in revelling and drunkenness, not in debauchery and licentiousness, not in quarrelling and jealousy. Instead, put on the Lord Jesus Christ, and make no provision for the flesh, to gratify its desires.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 28-29/2019
IMF Stresses Urgency of Reforms in Lebanon to Restore Economic Stability
Salameh Denies Warning of Collapse within Days but Urges Quick 'Solution'
Lebanese army arrests several protesters in Sidon as roadblocks continue
Lebanon Protesters Block Roads to Press their Demands
Lebanon Protesters Block Roads to Keep Revolt Alive
Lebanese Protesters Get Creative as They Block Roads
Report: Security Forces Share Plan to Reopen Blocked Roads as Protests Continue
Hariri Refutes Claims on Gulf Funding of Protests
Resignations Ravage Strong Lebanon Parliamentary Bloc
Italy's Churches, Pope Francis Rally Anti-corruption Protests in Lebanon
Hariri Chairs Ministerial Meeting on General Amnesty Law
Banks Association Reassures on Public Sector Salaries, ATM Operations
Strong Lebanon Bloc Meets Berri as Members Lift Bank Secrecy
Kataeb Party chief MP Sami GemayelSays Only Neutral Govt. Can Restore Confidence
Kouyoumjian Says Authority Must Listen to People’s Demand
Unemployment Fuels Unrest in Arab States, Says IMF
Lebanon’s Wild ‘WhatsApp’ Revolution Challenges Hezbollah and the Old Elites

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 28-29/2019
Remains of Daesh leader Al-Baghdadi buried at sea/Al-Baghdadi was buried at sea with the appropriate religious rites
Pentagon: US detained two men during al-Baghdadi raid
US President Trump says he may release partial video of al-Baghdadi raid
Over 500 US soldiers, military equipment arrives in northern Syria base: Monitor
Iraqi minister of defense says a missile fell near Taji camp causing no damage
SDF say al-Baghdadi’s underpants were DNA tested before raid
Iraqi cleric al-Sadr calls for early election
Iraqi military declares curfew in Baghdad: State TV
Iraqi parliament votes to revoke privileges for senior politicians amid protests
Five protesters killed in Iraq’s capital: Rights commission
UN envoy to meet Turkey, Iran, and Russia foreign ministers in Geneva
Turkey detains 20 foreigners seen tied to ISIS: Anadolu
French academic held in Iran accused of ‘collusion’: Lawyer

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 28-29/2019
Lebanon’s Wild ‘WhatsApp’ Revolution Challenges Hezbollah and the Old Elites/Jesse Rosenfeld/The Daily Beast/October 28/2019
Daesh leader’s death changes nothing/Chris Doyle//Arab News/October 28, 2019
Modi’s visit ushers in a new era of strategic partnership/Dr. Ausaf Sayeed/Arab News/October 28, 2019
Consensus on oil price is that it remains range-bound/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/October 28/2019
The US: Between being the world’s policeman and trusting regional partners/Ambassador Dennis Ross/Al Arabiya/October 28/2019
EU Supports Iran - World's Leading Executioner of Children/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/October 28/2019
Italy: Mass Legalization of Migrants is Suicidal/Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/October 28/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 28-29/2019
IMF Stresses Urgency of Reforms in Lebanon to Restore Economic Stability
Reuters/Monday 28th October 2019
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it is assessing an emergency reform package announced by Lebanon’s government last week and stressed reforms should be implemented urgently given the country’s high debt levels and fiscal deficits. Lebanon has been swept by over 10 days of protests against a political class accused of corruption, mismanagement of state finances and pushing the country toward an economic collapse unseen since the 1975-90 civil war. Last week the government unveiled a set of measures aimed partly at appeasing demonstrators and convincing foreign donors it can slash next year’s budget deficit. But the emergency reform package failed to persuade demonstrators to leave the streets or investors to halt a plunge in its bonds. “We’re studying it, we need to see not only what is in the package but also the timeline of the package for a country like Lebanon that has such high level of debt over GDP (gross domestic product) and high levels of twin deficits,” Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department told Reuters.Lebanon has one of the world’s highest levels of government debt as a share of economic output. The IMF has forecast a fiscal deficit of 9.8% of GDP this year and 11.5% next year. Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri said the emergency measures introduced last week – which included the symbolic halving of the salaries of ministers and lawmakers – might not meet the protesters’ demands but were a start towards achieving some of them. “Fundamental reforms are urgently needed in Lebanon in order to restore macro-economic stability, bring confidence back, stimulate growth and provide some solutions to the issues that were raised by the street,” IMF’s Azour said. The Lebanese government is planning to accelerate a long-delayed reform of the state-run power sector, which drains $2 billion from the treasury per year while failing to deliver enough power for Lebanese. Azour said that to restore confidence in the economy some of the long-awaited reforms in the energy and telecom sectors must be “clearly implemented with a very articulate timetable.”
He said the fund was in regular discussions with the Lebanese authorities but that they had not asked the IMF to provide program funding.

Salameh Denies Warning of Collapse within Days but Urges Quick 'Solution'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 28/2019
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh on Monday denied telling CNN that Lebanon’s economy will collapse in a matter of days if the protests continue while noting that a “solution” to the crisis is needed within days in order to restore confidence and avoid a collapse. Salameh noted that a CNN headline did not accurately reflect what he said in an interview with the TV network. “I am not saying that we are going to have a collapse in a matter of days. I am saying we need to have a solution in a matter of days to regain confidence and avoid collapse in the future,” Salameh clarified. In the interview with CNN broadcast Monday, the governor was asked how much longer the country could avert economic collapse, given its dwindling foreign reserves. "It's a matter of days, because the cost is heavy on the country, but more important, we're losing every day confidence," Salameh said. "Finance and economy, it's all about confidence." Long before the protests began, Lebanon's economy was already suffering from a massive budget deficit and rising unemployment. Its debt ratio of $86 billion is one of the highest in the world, accounting for more than 150% of its gross domestic product.
The protesters blame the economic crisis on political leaders from various religious sects and factions who have dominated the country since the civil war. They say the sectarian power-sharing arrangement that ended the war has spawned networks of corruption, patronage and nepotism that have depleted the treasury and gutted public services. Thirty years after the end of the war, power outages are still frequent, the water supply is unreliable and trash goes uncollected in many areas.

Lebanese army arrests several protesters in Sidon as roadblocks continue
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 28 October 2019
Lebanon’s army has arrested several protesters in Sidon on Monday, Al Arabiya’s correspondent reported, as they used their bodies to block main roads in the southern city. The exact number of those arrested is unknown.
The roadblocks prompted some pushback from army forces leading to two injuries, according to the Red Cross. They reported that the two injured were treated and released. Lebanese demonstrators set up barricades and parked cars across key roads to protest corruption and press their demands for a radical overhaul of their country’s sectarian political system. Meanwhile, Lebanese Defense Minister Elias Bousaab told OTV on Monday that the army is on the roads but does not open roadblocks by force to avoid any clashes with citizens. “Those who incite clashes and tension should bear their responsibility,” Bousaab said. “We must address the situation of road closures quickly, making sure that the army does not clash with the citizens and we will have a meeting soon to this end,” he added. On their 12th day of protesting, demonstrators called on people to block main roads with their cars. Al Arabiya’s correspondent reported that members of the Lebanese army attempted to urge car owners to remove their cars. According to the Hezbollah-affiliated al-Manar TV, protesters closed off the municipality buildings of Tripoli and el-Mina, as well as the water authority in north Lebanon. Meanwhile, the Association of Banks in Lebanon announced the closure of banks on Monday, as protests continue across the country. The move comes amid fears of a huge demand for the US dollar, or a large withdrawal of deposits abroad, and the deterioration of the lira exchange rate against the dollar. For 12 consecutive days, protests have been sweeping Lebanon against a political elite accused of corruption, mismanagement of state funds and leading the country to an economic collapse not seen in Lebanon since the 1975-1990 civil war. Banks, schools and many businesses remain closed.

Lebanon Protesters Block Roads to Press their Demands
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 28 October, 2019
Lebanese demonstrators set up barricades and parked cars across key roads Monday to protest corruption and press their demands for the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s government. Defying pleas from Lebanon's top leaders, protesters sought to keep the country paralyzed by cutting off some of the main thoroughfares, including the main north-south highway. A poster urging motorists to block roads with their cars started circulating on social media on Sunday. By Monday morning, some major routes were closed off by hundreds of angle-parked vehicles, others by groups of protesters sitting on the road. The Lebanese security forces had been expected to make a new attempt at reopening the roads as the country faced more paralysis after 11 days of protests. The army and the country's top security agencies agreed during talks held at the defense ministry in Yarze on Sunday to a military-led plan to clear roadblocks, but their efforts have been met with resistance from demonstrators. Lebanese soldiers forcibly removed anti-government protesters from a highway linking the southern city of Sidon to the capital, Beirut, and briefly detained around a dozen of them. No weapons were used and there were no reports of serious injuries from the confrontation early on Monday. The unprecedented mobilization was sparked a proposed tax on voice calls via messaging apps, but quickly morphed into a massive grassroots push to drive out the ruling class which has remained virtually unchanged in three decades. The protesters are demanding the government's resignation, more freedom, better services and an end to corruption and sectarianism, among other things. Banks, schools and universities remained closed Monday.

Lebanon Protesters Block Roads to Keep Revolt Alive
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 28/2019
Anti-government demonstrators set up barricades and parked cars across key roads Monday to protest corruption and press their demands for a radical overhaul of the country's sectarian political system. Defying pleas from Lebanon's top leaders, protesters sought to keep the country on lockdown for a 12th consecutive day by cutting off some of the main thoroughfares, including the main north-south highway. The protesters are demanding better services and an end to corruption and sectarian politics, among other things. Their unprecedented mobilization -- sparked by a proposed tax on voice calls via messaging apps on October 17 -- has quickly morphed into a massive grassroots push to drive out a political elite which has remained virtually unchanged in three decades. Lebanon's political leaders have appeared shell-shocked, trying simultaneously to express sympathy for the protest movement while warning of chaos in the case of a power vacuum."If the corrupt ruling class doesn't feel like the country is crippled we will not see any results," said 21-year-old Ali who was among a group of demonstrators blocking a key road in the capital on Monday morning.
- Couches & footballs -
A poster urging motorists to block roads with their cars started circulating on social media on Sunday night. By the next day, some major routes were closed off by hundreds of angle-parked vehicles, others by groups of protesters sitting on the road. Schools and banks have been closed for more than a week.
Security forces had been expected to make a new attempt at reopening the roads as the country faced more paralysis. The army and the country's top security agencies had agreed at the weekend to a military-led plan to clear roadblocks, but their efforts have been met with resistance from demonstrators.
In the southern city of Sidon, the army scuffled with protesters blocking the city's northern entrance on Monday morning, injuring three and making arrests. The protesters were freed in the evening. In Beirut, activists converted the Ring highway -- a main artery in the center of the city -- into an open-air living room, furnished with couches and rugs. They shot footballs across streets which on a regular Monday would have been jammed with motorists streaming in from Beirut's northern suburbs. Most residents have backed road closures, and business owners on Sunday night called for a general strike in solidarity, but political officials and flustered motorists have in recent days accused demonstrators of robbing people of their livelihoods.
No going back
"We are not closing all the roads. There are always side roads people can use," said Yusra, a 16-year-old in central Beirut. "We don't want to stand against the people but we also don't want to go back to the way things were before the revolution," she told AFP. So far, the unprecedented protest movement has been relatively incident-free, despite tensions with the armed forces and attempts by party loyalists to stage counter-demonstrations. In one of the most serious incidents, the army opened fire on Friday to confront a group of protesters blocking a road in the northern city of Tripoli, wounding at least six people. The army said it was forced to fire in the air after troops were pelted with stones in the wake of a clash between road-blocking protesters and passersby.
On Sunday, tens of thousands of protesters joined hands nationwide to form a 170-kilometer (105-mile) human chain stretching from Tripoli to Tyre in the south. The event drew Lebanese of all ages and backgrounds, many of them draped in the national cedar flag. Organizers said the event symbolized a national civic identity that has emerged since the start of the protests on October 17.The rallies have been remarkable for their territorial reach and the absence of political or sectarian banners, in a country often defined by its divisions.The leaderless protest movement is driven mostly by a young generation of men and women born after the 1975-1990 civil war. Lebanon's reviled political elite has defended a belated package of economic reforms and appeared willing to reshuffle the government, but protesters have stayed on the streets.
More than a quarter of Lebanon's population lives in poverty, according to the World Bank.

Lebanese Protesters Get Creative as They Block Roads
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 28/2019
On a main thoroughfare in Beirut on Monday, Lebanese protesters set up a living room with an area rug, a couch and a refrigerator. On another, they held a morning yoga class. And on a third road, a band with an accordion player sang one of the newest slogans of Lebanon's anti-government protests.
"Hela, hela, hela ho, the road is closed, sweetie," the song went — a reflection of how the protesters have grown more creative as they have blocked roads as part of massive anti-government demonstrations underway for the last 12 days.
The protests are directed at the political elites who have dominated the country since its 1975-1990 war, and who many accuse of corruption and economic mismanagement. "We are all tired, and we understand that people want to get back to their work, but we cannot stop now," said Dina Yaziji, who joined the protests because, like many young Lebanese, she cannot find employment. "We won't stop until the regime steps down. If anyone has a problem with us let them speak to (President) Michel Aoun and ask him to step down. Then we'll go home."In many locations, demonstrators have sat or lain in the streets in a form of civil disobedience, forcing security forces to drag them away by their arms and legs. In others, they have blocked routes with overturned dumpsters and burned tires, sending black smoke up into the air. Protesters set fires to block the airport road in Beirut early Monday before Lebanese troops in armored personnel carriers arrived to clear the route.
Lebanese soldiers removed protesters from a highway linking the southern city of Sidon to the capital, Beirut, and briefly detained around a dozen of them. No weapons were used and there were no reports of serious injuries from the confrontation. The protests have paralyzed the country but have been largely peaceful, with security forces exercising restraint. There have been few reports of arrests or serious injuries since the demonstrations began, and security forces have stood by during mass rallies held in public squares. On Sunday, thousands of protesters formed a human chain stretching along major highways in and around Beirut. Schools, banks and most businesses remained closed Monday, raising concerns that many Lebanese would not be able to receive their salaries at the end of the month. There are also fears of a run on the banks that could further deplete the country's limited supply of foreign currency, potentially affecting its ability to import wheat, fuel and medicine. Long before the protests began, Lebanon's economy was already suffering from a massive budget deficit and rising unemployment. Its debt ratio of $86 billion is one of the highest in the world, accounting for more than 150% of its gross domestic product.
The protesters blame the economic crisis on political leaders from various religious sects and factions who have dominated the country since the civil war. They say the sectarian power-sharing arrangement that ended the war has spawned networks of corruption, patronage and nepotism that have depleted the treasury and gutted public services. Thirty years after the end of the war, power outages are still frequent, the water supply is unreliable and trash goes uncollected in many areas.

Report: Security Forces Share Plan to Reopen Blocked Roads as Protests Continue
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 28/2019
The security forces reportedly postponed until Monday a plan set to reopen major roads and highways blocked by protesters “due to last minute complications,” al-Joumhouria daily reported on Monday. The daily said the plan implementation was supposed to take place Sunday at dawn. On Saturday, a security meeting took place at the army headquarters which included, together with its commander, General Joseph Aoun, all the leaders of the security and military services. The meeting discussed the current situation in the country in light of the ongoing demonstrations and the ongoing blocking of roads and major highways, according to al-Joumhouria. The security and military forces agreed to share a mission in order to "restore normal movement in the country without clashing with demonstrators," sources of the interlocutors told the daily. The tasks were "distributed among security apparatuses to facilitate the freedom of movement of citizens on key roads, taking into consideration the safety of demonstrators," added the source. Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese poured into the streets after the government floated a new tax on WhatsApp on the heels of an austerity package that came in response to an increasingly severe fiscal crisis. The protests rapidly escalated into an indictment of the entire post-civil war order, in which a sectarian power-sharing arrangement has transformed former warlords and other elites into a permanent political class. In the three decades since the war ended, the same leaders have used patronage networks to get themselves re-elected again and again even as the government has failed to reliably provide basic services like electricity, water and trash collection.

Hariri Refutes Claims on Gulf Funding of Protests
Naharnet/October 28/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Monday refuted claims published in Hizbullah’s al-Akhbar daily that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are allegedly funding media coverage of the protests in Lebanon. Hariri’s press office said: “The Premier rejects al-Akhbar’s allegations that Chairman and CEO of LBCI Pierre Daher admitted in Hariri’s presence that he and Tahsin Khayyat (Owner of NTV and Michel al-Murr (CEO of MTV) received funding from SA and UAE to cover the popular protests.”The statement said all similar allegations are “baseless and unfounded.”

Resignations Ravage Strong Lebanon Parliamentary Bloc
Kataeb.org/Monday 28th October 2019
Following the withdrawal of MPs Shamel Roukoz and Neemat Frem in recent days from the Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc, sources indicated that Deputy Agop Pakradonian is mulling over stepping down from the alliance.
It is reported that other members in the alliance, headed by Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, will also resign. Sources mentioned that MP Roger Azar is negotiating with Pakradonian and other deputies from the Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc to halt their resignations.

Italy's Churches, Pope Francis Rally Anti-corruption Protests in Lebanon
Kataeb.org/Monday 28th October 2019
Italy’s churches rang their bells on Monday in solidarity with Lebanon’s anti-corruption protests, as reported by the National News Agency. After 11 days of silence, Italian newspapers alike La Stampa and Avvenire, dedicated pages to give an account of the recent developments in Lebanon, signaling Pope Francis’ speech on Sunday“Historical ties bind Lebanon and Italy together. We must not forget this country that is undergoing a difficult crisis,” La Stampa newspaper wrote. For his part, Pope Francis urged everyone to seek the right solutions in the way of dialogue in Lebanon asking the country to respect "dignity and freedom." "I would like to address a special thought to the dear Lebanese people, in particular to the young who... have made their cries heard in the face of the social and economic challenges and problems of the country," Pope Francis said following the Angelus prayer in Saint Peter's Square.
“I hope that with the support of the international community, the country may continue to be a space for peaceful coexistence and respect for the dignity and freedom of every person, to benefit of the entire Middle East,” he added.

Hariri Chairs Ministerial Meeting on General Amnesty Law
Naharnet/October 28/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Monday presided at the Center House over a ministerial meeting aimed at studying a general amnesty draft law. “The meeting of the ministerial committee tasked with studying the general amnesty draft law was attended by the ministers Raya al-Hassan, Albert Serhan, Wael Abu Faour, Mohammed Fneish, Elias Bou Saab, Salim Jreissati, Youssef Fenianos and Hassan al-Laqqis,” Hariri’s office said. Hariri’s adviser Ghattas Khoury and several other aides attended the meeting. Families demanding a general amnesty for their sons and relatives are taking part in the popular protests that have engulfed Lebanon since October 17. Families of Islamist prisoners have repeatedly rallied in recent years demanding the approval of the law. Relatives of inmates held over drug-related charges who hail from the Bekaa region have also demanded an amnesty.
Lebanon witnessed one general amnesty after the end of the civil war in 1990.

Banks Association Reassures on Public Sector Salaries, ATM Operations
Naharnet/October 28/2019
The Association of Banks in Lebanon on Monday announced that banks will remain closed on Tuesday, while reassuring that the salaries of public sector employees and the armed forces will be paid on time. “Despite the difficult situations and the blocking of roads, banks are keen on securing the salaries of public sector employees, especially the officers and personnel of the army and security forces, who represent the guarantee of the country and the citizens and enjoy the respect and appreciation of everyone,” ABL said in a statement issued after an extraordinary meeting for its board of directors. “The central bank has provided the necessary liquidity for this purpose,” ABL added. Separately, the association said “ATM operations continue in the various regions,” reminding that “banks stand ready to answer clients’ inquiries through their call centers.” “The association emphasizes that the main concern of banks is securing the necessary and urgent needs of their clients and facilitating their living affairs, and that it will spare no effort to alleviate the impact of the crisis on citizens,” ABL added.

Strong Lebanon Bloc Meets Berri as Members Lift Bank Secrecy
Naharnet/October 28/2019
A delegation from the Free Patriotic Movement-led Strong Lebanon bloc held talks Monday in Ain el-Tineh with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to “discuss the current extraordinary issues from the angle of parliament’s work,” MP Ibrahim Kanaan said.“A lot is being said in this period about combating corruption, but combating corruption, accountability, the recovery of looted funds and the lifting of immunities are all draft laws presented by our bloc and other blocs, and I believe that the time has come,” Kanaan said. “Mr. Speaker agreed with us that a serious step must be taken to approve them,” he said. “We learned from him that the draft laws will be looked into within days,” Kanaan went on to say, noting that the bills will be “expedited, not rushed.”The FPM’s political commission meanwhile held a meeting under FPM chief MP Jebran Bassil after which it issued a statement announcing that bank secrecy will be lifted off the accounts of the MPs and ministers of the Strong Lebanon bloc “in line with President Michel Aoun’s stance” and after “the FPM chief lifted secrecy off his bank accounts two years ago.”
“All FPM ministers and MPs have signed letters certified by notaries general” in this regard, the statement added.

Kataeb Party chief MP Sami GemayelSays Only Neutral Govt. Can Restore Confidence
Naharnet/October 28/2019
Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel on Monday called for the formation of a “neutral government of experts.” “Only an instant resignation of the government and the formation of a neutral government of experts can restore the confidence of people and the international community in the state,” Gemayel tweeted, saying the move would “rescue the economic and monetary situations.” Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh has warned that a “solution” is needed within days in order to restore confidence and avoid a future collapse.

Kouyoumjian Says Authority Must Listen to People’s Demand
Naharnet/October 28/2019
Minister of Social Affairs Richard Kouyoumjian said he was surprised that the political class continues to ignore the rightful demands of protesters. “How can the conscience of presidents and ministers not be shaken when they hear the people’s cries and the roar of the national uprising in all regions,” said Kouyoumjian in a tweet. The Minister, along with three other LF ministers, quit from the Cabinet on the third day of protests against tax hikes and alleged official corruption. He said the political class must listen to the people’s demands to form a “modern state and a non-corrupt authority."

Unemployment Fuels Unrest in Arab States, Says IMF
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 28/2019
Unemployment and sluggish economic growth are fuelling social tension and popular protests in several Arab countries, the International Monetary Fund said Monday.The unrest is in turn contributing to slower growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, alongside global trade tensions, oil price volatility and a disorderly Brexit process, the IMF said in a report on the regional economic outlook.Earlier this month it lowered the 2019 forecast for the region -- taking in the Arab nations and Iran -- to a meagre 0.1 percent from 1.1 percent last year.The IMF slashed its outlook for the region's three largest economies -- Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. The risks around the forecast of earlier this month "are skewed to the downside and are highly dependent on global factors," the IMF said in its report on Monday. "The level of growth that countries in the region are having is below what is needed to address unemployment," said Jihad Azour, the IMF's director for the Middle East and Central Asia. "We are in a region where the rate of unemployment at the youth level exceeds 25-30 percent and this requires growth to be higher by 1-2 percent" in order to make a dent in joblessness, Azour told AFP in an interview.The IMF report said that the high unemployment was worsening social tensions in Arab countries. "Unemployment averages 11 percent throughout the region versus seven percent across other emerging market and developing economies," it said. "Women and young people are particularly likely to be out of work, with more than 18 percent of women... without jobs in 2018."
Violent protests have broken out in several Arab countries since early 2010 and turned into bloody civil wars in Syria, Yemen and Libya.A new wave of demonstrations erupted over the last year in Algeria, Sudan, Iraq and Lebanon, typically demanding economic reforms and action against corruption. In Lebanon, where protesters have brought the country to a standstill with demands for a full overhaul of the political system, the economy grew at a very slow pace over the past few years, Azour noted. "The government has to act firmly and swiftly in order to address those imbalances, bring confidence back by addressing the fiscal situation, and lower expenditure," he said. The IMF also said that public debt levels were very high in many Arab countries -- exceeding 85 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on average, with rates of more than 150 percent in Lebanon and Sudan.
"Having built over many years, the cost of public debt burdens has become sizeable, preventing investments critical to the region's long-term economic future," it said.
Iran flounders -
The IMF said that Iran, which is subject to crippling US sanctions, has entered a steep economic recession and faces a battle against spiralling inflationary pressures. The Islamic republic's economy is projected to contract by 9.5 percent this year after posting negative growth of 4.8 percent in 2018. Iranian authorities must align "the exchange rate close to the market rate and also reform the financial sector... and try to address some of the implications of the high level of inflation," Azour said. As a result of the sanctions, Tehran is believed to be exporting only around 500,000 barrels per day of crude, down from over two million bpd before the sanctions. The IMF said that oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, led by Saudi Arabia, are expected to grow by just 0.7 percent this year from 2.0 percent in 2018 due to lower oil prices and output. "GCC economies need to diversify and grow out of oil and this requires them to accelerate the reforms that have been started in the last four to five years," Azour said.

Lebanon’s Wild ‘WhatsApp’ Revolution Challenges Hezbollah and the Old Elites
Jesse Rosenfeld/The Daily Beast/October 28/2019
https://www.thedailybeast.com/lebanons-wild-whatsapp-revolution-challenges-hezbollah-and-the-old-elites
On the heels of mass protests in Algeria, Sudan, and Iraq, Lebanon has joined a second wave of social discontent in the Arab world.
BEIRUT—In a country long known for its live-for-the-day parties and grinding social discontent, both have now come together to spawn Lebanon’s October Revolution. The Mediterranean air is filled with exhilaration, but also with fear.
A spiraling economic crisis that ignited spontaneous protests and clashes with riot police over corruption and the high cost of living has turned into a popular uprising against the political elite and sectarian political system.
On the heels of mass protests in Algeria, Sudan, and Iraq, Lebanon has joined a second wave of social discontent in the Arab world emerging in countries that were not transformed by the mass protests of 2011. They seem undeterred by the counter-revolutions, repression and civil war that rolled back the victories of the Arab Spring everywhere but in Tunisia. Discontent with their domestic political system’s inability to address social demands and economic crises, as in 2011, has created this new wave of mass social action attempting to transform society and bring down old leaders.
Tire-fire barricades and protesters blocking main highways and an open-ended general strike have paralyzed Lebanon. Over a million working- and middle-class people from across the sectarian divide of this state of 6 million have joined together in city squares chanting “the people want the downfall of the regime.”
“These words mean freedom, they mean changing the economy,” says 24-year-old Ali Hassan about the chant made famous during the 2011 uprisings across the region. Smoking a cigarette on a curb in downtown Beirut, he looks over at a crowd of protesters standing on the steps of the Al-Amin Mosque who are denouncing the country’s leaders as thieves.
The building, designed to emulate Istanbul’s Blue Mosque, was erected with a donation by Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister assassinated in 2005. His son, Saad Hariri, is prime minister now.
Hassan, here on the curb, hails from the Hariri stronghold of Sidon on the coast south of Beirut, where he was a supporter of the Hariri-led Future Movement. Now working in Beirut as a nurse, however, he says his salary of $800 a month can’t cover the cost of rent let alone finance his staggering student debt from four years paying the annual $40,000 university tuition.
Hassan blames Lebanon’s confessional political system left by French colonial rule as the root of the country’s problem. Based on the demography of the early 20th century, it assures the president will be a Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shia Muslim.
“We want to be free from Syria, Iran, America and Saudi.”
The result thwarts the power of the electorate by dividing government and civil service positions along sectarian lines to balance representation of the major faiths and minorities. In practice it has created a system of patronage where the parties that fought the 15-year civil war that ended in 1990 use their governing positions to grant state jobs to their constituents. It has also facilitated the governing parties’ role as proxies for foreign powers.
“We want to be free from Syria, Iran, America and Saudi,” Hassan says of the countries that exert influence on the government through their support of rival political factions. So he joined the hundreds of thousands from around the city regularly converging on the downtown. Carrying Lebanese flags and condemning all the establishment leaders as corrupt and inept in equal measure, they are an unprecedented coalition of people trying to force the collapse of a government made up of faces that have ruled since the civil war.
The country is mired in an economic spiral, carrying one of the largest per capita national debts in the world, over $71 billion in total, and facing a shortage of the dollar to which the Lebanese Lira is pegged. Daily power cuts and non-potable tap water have been long-term problems resulting from government infrastructure neglect dating back almost 30 years, when the Hariris’ construction company led the reconstruction that followed the civil war.
According to Sami Nader, the director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, 37-percent youth unemployment and private currency traders increasingly abandoning the official Lebanese exchange rate are signs the country is heading toward a debt crisis like Argentina in 2001 or Greece in 2008. As a result, he says, people now feel they don’t have anything left to lose.
“Nasrallah has warned that if his party brings its supporters into the streets, it will 'change the equation.'”
The protests were sparked by unpopular austerity measures and tax increases in a country with few public services and the government has been back peddling, scrambling to cling to power, since they erupted. First the government scrapped a proposed tax on WhatsApp. Used across Lebanon to avoid paying for calls and texts in a country with high mobile phone costs, the tax became the final straw that pushed people from economic despair to political rage. Then, as rival parties blamed each other, police cracked down on the streets with tear gas and water cannons.
The protests only grew, forcing Hariri and President Michel Aoun to address the country in speeches promising economic reforms, vowing to fix long term infrastructure problems, and to take anti-corruption measures–but refusing to resign. Hassan Nasrallah, general secretary of Hezbollah (the Party of God) has also spoken to the country, stating clearly that his party will not accept the toppling of the presidency or resignation of the government.
Hezbollah’s Iranian-backed “militia” is the largest armed force in the country and it leverages this power to shape the government to serve its interests. Nasrallah has warned that if his party brings its supporters into the streets, it will “change the equation.” However, the government’s refusal to relinquish power has only boosted the movement.
“This is no longer about the reforms, it’s about the people making the reforms,” says Nader. “This is a real social and economic revolution.”
In Beirut protesters have shut down highways that connect the capital with much of the rest of the country. The army is deployed along the main traffic arteries, watching protesters block them while sporadic barricades around the city have left streets, normally jammed to the point of gridlock, now virtually devoid of traffic.
In Dahieh, the mostly Shia majority working class suburb of southern Beirut that has been a support base for Hezbollah, what normally are bustling alleys are now quiet, with shops shuttered. In the Sunni majority upscale neighborhood of Hamra, a key constituency of Prime Minister Saad Hariri in the city’s west, banking towers are closed and protesters on the streets lined with bars and cafés blame their PM for making life in the city unaffordable.
It is as quiet as Easter Sunday in the middle-class eastern Christian district of Ashrafieh, where the right-wing Lebanese Forces party and President Michel Aoun’s Hezbollah-allied Free Patriotic Movement have battled for support. The usually booming music emanating from the boisterous nightlife in the district’s neighborhoods of Mar Mikhael and Gemmayze is overpowered by the echoing chants of protesters returning from the mass rallies.
“In Beirut’s downtown hundreds of thousands come together in an often festive atmosphere to curse their leaders, chanting 'all of them means all of them.'”
However, it is in the city’s downtown that hundreds of thousands come together in an often festive atmosphere to curse their leaders, chanting “all of them means all of them” in a call for them to go. Rebuilt after the civil war into a French-influenced, manicured Mediterranean promenade filled with foreign-owned investment properties, luxury shops, banks and embassies, Beirut’s central business district is now controlled by protesters.
Standing in the streets outside Parliament amid throngs of young people chanting “Revolution! Revolution!” 71-year-old Sukaina Salameh is overjoyed. The crowd is filled with contemporary anti-establishment references. Some protesters don the Guy Fawkes masks of the Anonymous movement while others prefer the Salvador Dali masks from the Spanish Bank Heist series “La Casa de Papel.” There are Joker face-painting stations. But the aged Salameh is perfectly easy with all that. “I feel like I’m still young and I’m still fighting,” she says.
Salameh is director of NAVTSS, a Palestinian-Lebanese non-governmental organization that provides educational services in Palestinian and Syrian Refugee camps and to poor Lebanese communities. Lack of opportunities for poor and marginalized people in the country has demoralized people, she says, creating a drop in enrolment in her organization’s education and training programs.
As a Palestinian who was able to get Lebanese citizenship in the 1990s and has been an activist all her life, Salameh has lived on multiple sides of Lebanon’s divide. She was involved in left-wing Palestinian and pan-Arabist struggles in the 1970s and sees some parallels with the mass protests against the political establishment then.
“In the details we were fighting for something different when I was younger, but in the bigger picture we are still fighting for dignity and a better life,” she says.
In the mid-1970s, Druze leader Kamal Jumblatt’s Progressive Socialist Party led the struggle against Lebanon’s sectarian system. Now his son Walid, who took over after his father’s assassination in the civil war, heads the party. He is seen as a kingmaker in Lebanese politics and has resisted the calls for the government to quit.
Salameh does not sympathize. “I want the old guard of the civil war to go and bring in people with new ideas,” she says, admiring the younger generation’s willingness to criticize the old leaders.
For a woman who saw the civil war from some of its worst front lines, it is the cross-confessional political unity that has inspired her the most. “This is the first time in which poor people in every sect are speaking together and making the same demands,” she says.
The scenes in Beirut are being replicated across the country. In southern Lebanon, in which Hezbollah fought and defeated Israeli occupation, Shia majority protests have condemned both the Party of God and its tenuous ally, Amal, which has been led since the civil war by Parliamentary Speaker Nabil Berri. Hariri is facing rejection by his own constituents as they rally in the northern city of Tripoli. And Christian communities from Mount Lebanon to the Bekaa Valley are saying time is up for President Aoun, Foreign Affairs Minister Gebran Bassil and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea.
“Protesters worry aloud about the potential for mass violence if the governing parties call their loyalists into the streets.”
Both Aoun and Geagea have gone from civil war strongmen to leading establishment politicians. Geagea was one of the few civil war leaders to be convicted and jailed in Lebanon for crimes committed during the civil war that raged from 1975-1990.
Amid a new optimism there is also looming fear. Early in the protests, when rioting broke out in Beirut, two people were killed in fires. The following day, the bodyguard of a former member of parliament opened fire on a crowd in Tripoli, Lebanon’s second city, killing two people and injuring two others. Amal members have attacked protesters in the south of the country and Hezbollah supporters have fought with protesters in Beirut, prompting Nasrallah to call on Hezbollah supporters to leave the scenes of protest and warning that continued unrest could lead to civil war. Protesters worry aloud about the potential for mass violence if the governing parties call their loyalists into the streets.
Lebanon’s political establishment is digging in as a new vision for the country comes together in the streets. What has become a protracted battle over turning the page on the political system that lead the country into and out of civil war is now transforming how people see their future and each other.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 28-29/2019
Remains of Daesh leader Al-Baghdadi buried at sea/Al-Baghdadi was buried at sea with the appropriate religious rites
Arab News/October 28/2019/WASHINGTON: US authorities have disposed of the remains of Daesh leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and have no plans to release photos or videos of his death at this time, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army General Mike Milley, said Monday. Al-Baghdadi detonated a suicide vest to kill himself as US forces closed in on him, President Donald Trump said on Sunday. "The disposal of his remains has been done and is complete and was handled appropriately," Milley told reporters at a Pentagon briefing. Seperately, US officials told Reuters that Al-Baghdadi was given a burial at sea and afforded religious rites.

Pentagon: US detained two men during al-Baghdadi raid
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 28 October 2019
Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said on Monday that the US detained two men during the raid on ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in northwestern Syria. “There were two adult males taken...alive. They are in our custody and they are in a secure facility,” Milley said in a press conference at the Pentagon. He also said that the US was not prepared to release photos or videos related to the raid on al-Baghdadi that resulted in his death, as the materials were in the process of being declassified. “We do have videos, photos. We are not prepared at the time to release those, they are going through a declassification process,” said Milley. Milley said that the disposal of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s remains has been completed. “Bagdadi’s remains were transported to a secure facility to confirm his identity with forensic DNA testing and the disposal of his remains has been done and is complete and was handled appropriately,” said Milley. US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday in a televised address that al-Baghdadi died in a US operation. “Last night, the United States brought the world’s number one terrorist leader to justice. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is dead,” said Trump.
Trump gave a detailed description of the US raid on al-Baghdadi’s compound, which he said he watched live last night. Al-Baghdadi died by detonating a suicide vest, having run into a “dead-end tunnel” being pursued by US troops.

US President Trump says he may release partial video of al-Baghdadi raid
AFP, Washington/Monday, 28 October 2019
President Donald Trump on Monday said he could release segments of video from the dramatic US raid to kill ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Syria. “We may take certain parts of it and release it,” Trump said on departure from Washington to Chicago, where he was due to address a police officers' convention.The attack by US special forces deep into Syria took place Saturday, culminating in the death of the fugitive leader who at his peak headed an organization that attempted to set up a hardline ISIS state across a huge area of Iraq and Syria. Trump described the raid in unusually colorful and detailed terms on Sunday, saying that al-Baghdadi died when he exploded a suicide vest after being cornered by US soldiers in a tunnel, together with three children. He died “like a dog,” Trump said in his comments, which differed sharply in tone from similar announcements by presidents in the past.
A report in The New York Times, quoting military and intelligence officials, cast doubt on some of Trump's descriptions, including his repeated claim that al-Baghdadi was “whimpering and crying” in the tunnel. Trump said his account was based on having watched the whole raid in real time, like “a movie.”
According to the report, Trump would not have had access to audio of the events at the time, or have been able to see footage from inside the tunnel.

Over 500 US soldiers, military equipment arrives in northern Syria base: Monitor
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 28 October 2019
Over 500 US soldiers, as well as military and logistical equipment arrived at bases they had withdrawn from in northern Syria on Monday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported. The observatory stated that one of the bases is located on the M4 highway between Tal Tamr and Tal Baidar, which is part of an area linking the Iraqi border, Qamishli and Aleppo. It added that US aircraft have been landing in the city of Srin’s airport for the past five days, as well as the offloading of cargo from the planes. They also stated that there were US logistical and military equipment, and vehicles in the planes. The observatory also noted the entry of two US convoys into Syrian land on Sunday night, that included over 85 vehicles and trucks carrying military equipment. The US had announced that it was withdrawing its armed forces from Syria, and that it will not be involved or support a planned Turkish operation in northern Syria. US forces “having defeated the ISIS territorial ‘Caliphate’ will no longer be in the immediate area,” the press secretary had said in a statement. US President Donald Trump had defended his administration’s decision to withdraw US troops from northern Syria, saying it was too costly to keep supporting US-allied Kurdish-led forces in the region fighting ISIS.

Iraqi minister of defense says a missile fell near Taji camp causing no damage
Reuters, Cairo/Tuesday, 29 October 2019
Iraqi Defense Minister Najah al-Shammari said on Tuesday a missile fell near Taji camp but caused no damage. Al-Shammari inspected the sprawling Taji base to see the security situation there, accompanied by the army aviation commander and senior officers from the defense ministry, Iraq’s news agency said. “Camp Taji is witnessing security stability, and there is no damage,” he said in a statement, stressing the need for caution to preserve the safety of all those in the camp. A curfew was declared in Baghdad on Monday after four people were killed and 277 wounded in the fourth day of anti-government protests. Medical and security sources said security forces fired tear gas canisters directly at protesters. Baghdad’s top military commander declared the curfew because of the unrest, which is driven by discontent over economic hardship and deep-seated corruption. Populist Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who backs parliament’s most powerful bloc and helped bring Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi to power, called for early elections after the curfew was announced. Demonstrators vowed to remain in the square despite the curfew, which they said would provide cover for security forces to attempt to clear it.

SDF say al-Baghdadi’s underpants were DNA tested before raid
Reuters, Beirut/Monday, 28 October 2019
ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s underpants were obtained by an undercover source and DNA tested to prove his identity before an operation by US forces to kill him, an adviser to the Syrian Democratic Forces said on Monday. Polat Can, a senior adviser to the Kurdish-led SDF, gave details on Twitter about how SDF intelligence work had helped locate al-Baghdadi, whose death was announced by US President Donald Trump on Sunday. “Our own source, who had been able to reach al-Baghdadi, brought al-Baghdadi’s underwear to conduct a DNA test and make sure (100%) that the person in question was al-Baghdadi himself,” Can said. Trump has said that the Kurds provided some information “helpful” to the operation. Can said the SDF had been working since May 15 with the CIA to track al-Baghdadi, and managed to confirm that he had moved from Deir Ezzor in eastern Syria to Idlib, where he was killed.
Al-Baghdadi had been about to change location to the Syrian town of Jarablus when the operation happened, he said. “All intelligence and access to al-Baghdadi as well as the identification of his place, were the result of our own work. Our intelligence source was involved in sending coordinates, directing the airdrop, participating in and making the operation a success until the last minute,” Can said.

Iraqi cleric al-Sadr calls for early election
Reuters, Baghdad/Monday, 28 October 2019
Populist Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on Monday called on Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi to announce early parliamentary elections overseen by the United Nations and without the participation of existing political parties.
Al-Sadr’s bloc, Saeroon, which came first in a 2018 election and helped bring Abdul Mahdi’s fragile coalition government to power, said on Saturday it was going into opposition until the demands of anti-government protesters were met. On Sunday, four Iraqi parliamentarians resigned in anger at the government’s perceived failure to respond to mass protests, piling more pressure on embattled Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi. Saeroon on Saturday announced an open-ended sit-in to show support for protests. Five protesters were killed on Monday in the Iraqi capital Baghdad, a rights commission said, bringing the total death toll nationwide since anti-government rallies erupted this month to nearly 240.

Iraqi military declares curfew in Baghdad: State TV
Reuters, Baghdad/Monday, 28 October 2019
Iraq has declared a curfew in the capital Baghdad from midnight to 6 a.m. local time “until further notice,” state television quoted the Baghdad Operations Commander as saying on Monday. Hundreds of protesters remained in Baghdad’s central Tahrir Square and other provinces on Monday, the fourth day in a renewed wave of anti-government demonstrations that saw over 200 people killed this month.

Iraqi parliament votes to revoke privileges for senior politicians amid protests
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 28 October 2019
Iraq’s parliament voted on Monday to revoke the privileges for the three political heads and several senior politicians as it sat to discuss protesters’ demands. Parliament voted to revoke privileges for the three heads of state - the president, the prime minister, and the speaker of parliament - as well as senior officials after discussing protesters’ demands in a session. It also approved a measure to form a committee to amend the constitution. More than a hundred people have been killed by security forces since protests began earlier this month. Protesters have demanded the fall of the government led by Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi.

Five protesters killed in Iraq’s capital: Rights commission
AFP, The Associated Press/Monday, 28 October 2019
Five protesters were killed on Monday in the Iraqi capital Baghdad, a rights commission said, bringing the total death toll nationwide since anti-government rallies erupted this month to nearly 240. Ali Bayati of the Iraqi Human Rights Commission told AFP it was unclear how they had died, but many in Baghdad in recent days have sustained severe trauma wounds from tear gas canisters fired by security forces. Earlier reports said that at least two anti-government protesters were killed and 105 were wounded in clashes with security forces in central Baghdad on Monday as thousands of students took to the streets in defiance of a government order and tear gas from security forces. The students skipped classes at several universities and secondary schools in Baghdad and across Iraq’s majority-Shia south on Monday to take part in the protests, despite the government ordering schools and universities to operate normally. It was not clear how many students were among those killed and wounded. The demonstrations are fueled by anger at corruption, economic stagnation and poor public services. “It’s a student revolution, no to the government, no to parties!” demonstrators chanted in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square, the epicenter of the protests. Protesters have camped out in the central roundabout and volunteers have brought them food, hoping to recreate the revolutionary atmosphere of similar rallies held across the region during and after the 2011 Arab Spring. Security forces have fired tear gas and stun grenades to keep protesters from crossing a main bridge leading to the Green Zone, home to government offices and embassies. At least 72 protesters have been killed since nationwide anti-government protests resumed on Friday, after 149 were killed during an earlier wave of protests this month.

UN envoy to meet Turkey, Iran, and Russia foreign ministers in Geneva
Reuters, Geneva/Monday, 28 October 2019
UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen said on Monday that he would meet foreign ministers from Turkey, Iran, and Russia in Geneva on Tuesday, a day ahead of the first meeting of Syria’s Constitutional Committee. Turkey’s Mevlut Cavusoglu, Iran’s Mohammad Javad Zarif and Russia’s Sergei Lavrov are due to meet in the Swiss city before the 150-member Syrian panel convenes under UN auspices. “We do believe that the fighting going on is just another proof of the importance to get a serious political process under way that can help sorting out the problems in all of Syria, including the northeast and also Idlib,” Pedersen told a news conference.

Turkey detains 20 foreigners seen tied to ISIS: Anadolu
Reuters, Istanbul/Monday, 28 October 2019
Turkish authorities on Monday detained 20 foreign nationals with suspected links to ISIS, state-owned Anadolu Agency reported. The detentions come a day after President Donald Trump announced that ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in a raid by US special forces in northwest Syria, near the Turkish border. Domestic operations against people with suspected links to ISIS are common in Turkey and it was not immediately clear whether Monday’s detentions were related to Baghdadi’s death. Anadolu said authorities had identified 20 foreign nationals with links to ISIS, who had entered Turkey illegally. It said the suspects had been detained in dawn raids in the capital Ankara and that they would be handed to immigration authorities for deportation after processing by security officials. ISIS has carried out atrocities against religious minorities and attacks on five continents in the name of an ultra-fanatic version of Islam that horrified mainstream Muslims. The death of Baghdadi is a severe blow to the group, which has been in disarray and has no declared successor as leader yet. But it has in the past proved resilient, continuing to mount or inspire attacks in the region and beyond despite losing most of its territory in recent years.

French academic held in Iran accused of ‘collusion’: Lawyer
AFP, Tehran/Monday, 28 October 2019
A French academic held in Iran for four months faces charges of collusion after being arrested alongside a Franco-Iranian colleague accused of espionage, their lawyer said in a report Monday. Roland Marchal, a researcher at Sciences Po in Paris, was arrested in June together with Fariba Adelkhah, an academic at the same university.Marchal had come to Iran to visit Adelkhah and was accused of “collusion against national security”, Saeed Dehghan said, quoted by the semi-official ISNA news agency. But the lawyer said the reasons for the charges were still unknown to him. “Up until this moment, the reasons for my clients’ charges, which according to Article 32 of the Constitution must be given alongside the charges, have not been mentioned,” Dehghan said.“It seems that Mr Marchal has been arrested because of his friendship with Ms Adelkhah,” he added. The lawyer said the two cases were still at the level of prosecutors and had not yet been sent to court. “We are still in negotiations with judicial authorities and we hope misunderstandings in this regard will be removed, as up until now no reason has been given for the levelled allegations,” said Dehghan. The French government has condemned the arrest of Marchal, a sociologist whose research focuses on civil wars in Africa. “We urge the Iranian authorities to be transparent and act without delay to put an end to this unacceptable situation,” the foreign ministry said on October 16. The arrest of Adelkhah, a specialist in Shiite Islam, was confirmed on July 16 by Iran’s judicial spokesman Gholamhossein Esmaili, who gave no further details. Her friends and colleagues in France have said she was accused of espionage. Tehran, which does not recognize dual nationality, has criticized Paris for “unacceptable interference” in its domestic affairs after the French government sought consular access to Adelkhah. The pair are not the only academics in Iranian custody. On October 1, Iran confirmed the arrest of anthropologist Kameel Ahmady, reportedly a British-Iranian dual national.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 28-29/2019
Daesh leader’s death changes nothing
Chris Doyle//Arab News/October 28, 2019
Secretary of Defense Mark Esper (3rd R), along with members of the national security team, watch as US Special Operations forces close in on Daesh leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in the Situation Room of the White House. (Reuters)
Donald Trump’s announcement that the Daesh leader was dead followed the same routine that his predecessor had followed in 2011 with the killing of the leader of Al-Qaeda, when he too was taken out by US Special Forces. President George W. Bush also said much the same after Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi was taken out in 2006. All three presidents used these operations for domestic and international political gain, to pose as successful leaders, even if the reality is that the operations were more the result of the sustained efforts of military and intelligence personnel, not political leaders.
Any sane, rational examination of the whole situation should give all of us pause for thought. None of us will lose sleep at the demise of such men, but plenty of sleep should be lost as to why, 18 years after the 9/11 attacks, the collective effort to deal with them is so pitiful and why so many of the same mistakes get repeated ad nauseam.
Here is a little exercise in crudely imagining just how the media and politicians could consider how to treat Daesh and the killing and capture of their leaders: “In a significant step forward in the struggle against international organized crime, a mass murderer and his violent thugs have been killed in a shootout with security forces in northwest Syria. The authorities released a statement stating that a number of gang members had been arrested and will face trial.”
I exaggerate for effect, not least because it may be unrealistic to imagine a trial taking place. But the fact that the US president is basking in the glory of killing the Daesh leader only adds to this criminal’s fame. Front pages are devoted to nothing else. Yet why do we even mention his name? To the extent that the Daesh leader was a symbol, it is because we helped make him one.
To crush the likes of Al-Qaeda and Daesh, we did not embark on a manhunt or a criminal investigation, we went to war against them. We had a “war on terror.” Like some hero in the Wild West, the Daesh leader even had a $25 million bounty on his head. Is it any wonder that every misfit and lunatic wanted to go off and join this enterprise? These thugs adore the publicity and the status of being labeled terrorists and the most wanted people on earth. It raises the question why do we not just refer to them as common criminals and mass murderers? What else are they?
Much of what Daesh has done over the years was designed solely for publicity; from lurid videos of beheadings and throwing people off buildings to the video of the Jordanian pilot being burned alive. The attention given to them only turbocharged their status and encouraged them to do more. Daesh also worked out that killing Westerners attracted far more attention than Arabs and Muslims, so saved their most spectacular and gory executions for their Western captives. The media saw no issue with circulating the photos of these events and often even the videos. Social media fanned the flames. Unwittingly, we have all collectively contributed to what such idiots were seeking to achieve — notoriety.
Many also played the Daesh game by depicting them as Muslims. More than anyone, Muslims will be delighted to see the back of this murderer, as so many Muslims have died and will continue to die at the hands of Daesh. But they are also painfully aware that the Syrian regime has killed many thousands more civilians over the last eight years and is now on the brink of resuming control of almost all of Syria.
By depicting this operation as a huge success, we miss the big picture. The criminal leader had actually been in US detention in Camp Bucca in Iraq together with nearly all of those who became his partners in crime. Here, their mafia-like network developed; contacts were made and skills shared. For Camp Bucca, now read Al-Hol in northeast Syria, where a similar process is taking place.
The fact that the US president is basking in the glory of his killing only adds to this criminal’s fame.
For six years or so, this Daesh leader had evaded capture and death. Much like the fictional Scarlet Pimpernel, “they sought him here, they sought him there, (they) seek him everywhere. Is he in heaven or is he in hell? That damned elusive Pimpernel.” Daesh committed atrocities and even captured entire cities such as Mosul and Raqqa, yet he could not be tracked down until now.
For most of October, the world had lamented the anti-Daesh strategy, with tons of criticism leveled at Trump for greenlighting the Turkish invasion of Syria, betraying the Kurdish allies who fought Daesh, and risking the group’s fighters escaping. In fact, about 100 did. From our new vantage point, these decisions may even have put the Idlib operation at severe risk. The killing of the Daesh leader changes nothing. The criticism is just as valid. New leaderships are emerging as succession planning is a feature of such groups. Morale will be crushed, but only in the short-term. The environment in both Syria and Iraq is, if anything, becoming even more fertile for such extremist groups, as none of the underlying issues that brought them into being in the first place have been resolved.
It is all too easy to foresee perhaps Trump or a successor, five or 10 years hence, huddled in the White House situation room, as President Barack Obama did before, watching some future operation to take out some fresh new “Enemy No. 1.” To avoid that undesirable scenario, it is time for a root and branch rethink, to press the reset button.
*Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding. Twitter: @Doylech

Modi’s visit ushers in a new era of strategic partnership
Dr. Ausaf Sayeed/Arab News/October 28, 2019
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s official visit to Saudi Arabia heralds a new era in Indo-Saudi relations, which over the years have developed into a strategic partnership. Modi’s visit is a follow-up to the series of high-level exchanges that began in 2006 and strengthened after King Salman’s visit to India in February 2014.
That visit was followed by Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia in April 2016, which was in turn followed by the historic visit of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to India in February 2019.
During the present visit, Modi will have bilateral discussions with King Salman and delegation-level talks with the crown prince. These discussions will be in addition to Modi delivering the keynote address at the third Future Investment Initiative (FII) forum, widely seen as the most important economic forum in the Middle East.
Modi’s visit is expected to further strengthen and expand bilateral ties in various areas such as security and strategic cooperation, defense, energy security, renewable energy, investments, trade and commerce, small and medium enterprises, agriculture, civil aviation, infrastructure, housing, financial services, training and capacity building, culture and people-to-people engagement. Nearly a dozen government-to-government agreements related to these areas are expected to be signed, as well as several government-to-business agreements.
One of the most important outcomes of the visit is expected to be the establishment of a Strategic Partnership Council (SPC) between the two countries. India will become the fourth country with which the Kingdom has formed a strategic partnership, the others being the UK, France and China.
The SPC will have two parallel tracks: Political, security, culture and society, headed by both countries’ foreign ministers; and economy and investment, headed by India’s commerce and industry minister and the Saudi energy minister.
Energy security is one of the prime areas of India’s engagement with Saudi Arabia. New Delhi appreciates the Kingdom’s vital role as a reliable source for India’s long-term energy supplies; the Kingdom supplies 18 percent of India’s crude oil requirements and 30 percent of its liquefied petroleum gas needs. Both countries are keen to transform the buyer-seller relationship in this sector into a much broader strategic partnership based on mutual complementarity and interdependence.
Saudi participation in India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves program could further strengthen the partnership. A memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd. and Saudi Aramco is expected to be finalized during the visit.
A trilateral partnership has been formed between Saudi Aramco, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and a consortium of Indian oil majors. The aim is to set up the world’s largest greenfield refinery in Raigarh district on India’s west coast. The proposed 1.2-million-barrel-per-day (bpd) refinery is likely to be commissioned by 2025, and is expected to help India raise its refining capacity by 77 percent to 8.8 million bpd by 2030.
Renewable energy is another sector in which the two countries are keen to strengthen collaboration. Saudi Arabia joined the International Solar Alliance in February 2019 at India’s invitation. The Kingdom plans to generate 9.5 GW of renewable energy by 2023 under its National Renewable Energy Program. An MoU on cooperation in renewable energy is expected to be signed during the visit, which will further increase cooperation in the sector.
Defense cooperation has become robust following the signing of an MoU in February 2014. The fourth Joint Committee on Defense Cooperation between the two countries in January 2019 in Riyadh explored several new areas for cooperation.
The two sides are keen to enhance maritime security cooperation in order to ensure safe passage of international trade and crude supplies. They are also considering joint naval exercises in the first quarter of 2020.
Both countries are exploring closer cooperation in defense industries. A delegation from the General Authority of Military Industries visited India in August 2019 and held meetings with several Indian companies. Training and capacity building in the defense sector is another area of mutual interest. There has been an increase in the participation of Saudi Armed Forces personnel in Indian military courses.
Saudi Arabia and India are huge markets for the airline industry. The civil aviation authorities in both countries have agreed to progressively increase the seat capacity of their respective national carriers.
Saudi Arabia is India’s fourth-largest trading partner. Bilateral trade is put at $34 billion, which includes a non-oil component of $10 billion. Although trade is growing at a healthy rate of 24 percent annually, there is potential to double the non-oil component to $20 billion in the next five years.
Concerning investments, the Saudi Center for International Strategic Partnership and India’s NITI Aayog have identified 40 opportunities in which Saudi investments could be made.
The ongoing links between the National Stock Exchange of India and the Saudi Stock Exchange are an important step in integrating both countries’ capital markets.
The agreement by both countries to launch the RuPay payment gateway in the Kingdom will facilitate not only the large Indian diaspora, but also Indian tourists plus Hajj and Umrah pilgrims. The integration of India’s e-Migrate portal with the Saudi e-Thawtheeq system has been completed, and is expected to facilitate the smooth movement of workforces between the two countries.
Existing bilateral relations are firmly rooted in people-to-people contacts between the two countries. The contribution of the 2.6-million-strong Indian diaspora to the Kingdom’s development is widely acknowledged and appreciated. Modi’s second visit to the Kingdom will set bilateral relations on a new upward trajectory and bind the two nations in an even stronger strategic partnership.
*Dr. Ausaf Sayeed is India’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia. Twitter: @drausaf

Consensus on oil price is that it remains range-bound
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/October 28, 2019
Last week saw a surprise increase in the oil price of 5.2 percent, from its low point on Tuesday to its high of $61.9 per barrel on Thursday. The price opened slightly lower at $61.1 in Monday’s early European trading.
The development surprised because it happened the week after the International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank’s annual meeting, which gave a gloomy economic outlook. The IMF’s global economic growth forecast for this year was downgraded to 3 percent, while the World Bank maintained its at 2.6 percent. This means that the world economy is teetering on the brink of a recession. Both institutions define the start point of a global recession as when average growth slows to 2.5 percent, as this signifies that several of the major Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development economies will have entered into recession. The IMF quoted trade wars, Brexit and geopolitical tensions as the main culprits for the global slowdown. Indeed, it looks like Germany entered a technical recession in the third quarter. The rest of the eurozone performed above expectations, but the slowdown in China cannot be ignored. We can also see the onset of a slowdown in the US economy.
The talk of recession and the localization of supply chains due to trade wars keeps the demand outlook for oil bleak. In its monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its demand forecasts for 2019 and 2020 by 0.1 percent to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 1.2 million next year. While the world crude balance may be in deficit, it is gloomy demand outlook and the impending non-OPEC wall of supply that outweighs any other considerations
After the Sept. 14 attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais, Saudi Aramco had restored its production by the end of the month. It looks set to do the same for capacity by the end of November. The fallout from the attacks temporarily dampened the outlook. However, the IEA still foresees the increase of 1.8 million bpd of non-OPEC production to hit international oil markets this year, which will go up to 2.2 million next year, meaning there will be a supply overhang if OPEC+ production stays at current levels.
So what was behind last week’s oil price increase? The US Energy Information Agency reported that US crude inventories dropped by 1.7 million barrels, which was in stark contrast to analyst consensus that foresaw an increase of 2.2 million barrels.
While the world crude balance may be in deficit, it is gloomy demand outlook and the impending non-OPEC wall of supply that outweighs any other considerations. The situation was not helped by a statement from Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak that there have so far been no consultations regarding deepening the 1.2 million bpd cut, which OPEC+ had decided on in June in Vienna in order to balance markets.
There are observers who think that the geopolitical premium is not sufficiently reflected, especially after last month’s attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais. While they may have a point, markets will decide the actual price level and markets traditionally act on data that can be forecasted with some certainty. Geopolitical events are considered outliers and will be priced in as and when they occur.
This means that the price outlook is muted. At last week’s S&P Global Platts conference, nearly 50 percent of attendees surveyed thought that the price level would stay between $55 and $65 per barrel.
Why do these surveys and the general outlook matter now? For one, OPEC+ will meet at the beginning of December and it needs to decide where to take the production cuts going forward. Part of the evaluation will have to consider whether a higher price can offset lower volumes and the sacrifice in market share. For Saudi Arabia, the price of oil takes on particular significance in light of the impending Aramco initial public offering. Investors will take price and volume considerations into account because they will determine the short to medium-term revenue outlook for the company. This being said, Saudi Aramco remains the world’s most profitable company by net income.
• Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macroeconomist and energy expert.
Twitter: @MeyerResources

The US: Between being the world’s policeman and trusting regional partners
Ambassador Dennis Ross/Al Arabiya/October 28/2019
The Middle East today is a cauldron of uncertainty and mixed messages. On the one hand American hard power still exists – as the raid to kill ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi shows. The raid was an example of the fusing of specialized military and intelligence capabilities — and US forces have the skill and wherewithal to carry out such operations. On the other hand, US President Donald Trump has made it clear he wants to withdraw from the region. We may have much hard power, but Trump realizes the American people are weary from Middle East conflicts that appear endemic and have cost the US so much blood and treasure.
Trump’s predecessor President Barack Obama also understood the American public’s weariness. He once commented that he had been elected to get the United States out of Middle Eastern wars, rather than into them. No two American presidents could be more different than Obama and Trump, but they both understood and reflected the desire to disengage from the region.
Ironically, it was Obama, who in response to the emergence of ISIS, fashioned a strategy for countering and defeating it. His administration assembled a large coalition to fight ISIS militarily, diplomatically, and economically. Notwithstanding his reluctance to be drawn into the conflicts in the area, Obama understood that ISIS represented an international threat, not just a regional one. He and his team also identified a local partner willing to fight ISIS - the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by the Kurdish YPG militia forces - and provided the means and the air and artillery support to help them succeed.
The Trump administration’s continued support for the SDF gave local US commanders more leeway to intensify the use of force in support of the local militias. But it is also Trump’s leadership that was quick to walk away from the YPG and effectively gave Turkey a green light to carve out a zone free of the Kurds in northeast Syria. President Trump may take credit for the US-brokered ceasefire, but he is not the arbiter of events in Syria. Nor does he want to be - he is letting Russian President Vladimir Putin fill the vacuum.
American power has been a constant in the region at least since the Gulf War in 1991. While certainly flawed and very costly at times, especially during the Iraq war which began in 2003, American force has imposed some limits on regional conflict. It is true that those constraints may not have affected asymmetrical threats, especially by non-state actors. However, direct, aggressive attacks by one state against another have largely ceased.
Moreover, the free flow of energy resources has unmistakably been an US objective, one which the US was previously prepared to implement. The Reagan Administration reflagged tankers during the Iraq-Iran war to prevent Iranian attacks designed to disrupt the oil supply and Iraq’s oil revenues.
Now President Trump signals that he is not prepared to impose such limits. He has already stated that because the US no longer depends on oil supplies from the region, it is up to those who do to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz remains open. He also makes clear he does not mind the Russians filling the vacuum - as seen in his statement that it is up to Russia, Turkey, Syria and the Kurds to sort things out in Syria – despite the fact that nearly 12,000 SDF fighters died battling ISIS. Beyond Syria, it is obviously no accident that Putin showed up in Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the heels of Trump’s decision to withdraw forces from Syria.
For an area that has suffered from ongoing conflict, regional rivalries, Iran’s increasing use of Shia militia proxies, and increasing challenges by publics fed up with terrible governance and widespread corruption, there are a number of things to keep in mind.
First, there remains no other country like the US in terms of real capability and hard power. Even now when Trump speaks of bringing his boys home, the US military retains over 40,000 forces in the area. The US military has just added more than 2,000 forces in the Arabian Peninsula to enhance defense against ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles. No other power can do what the US can do—and that includes the Russians. Of course, capability has to be matched by intention and will. For now, the US posture is likely to be purely defensive, but its continuing presence does create a reality.
Second, Trump’s position does reflect broader sentiment in America about Middle East conflicts. But there is also much polling that suggests the American public will support common sense positions on deterring conflicts, opposing outright aggression and having allies all around the globe. It is very possible that Trump’s successor will believe it is important to re-establish American credibility and the image of being a reliable ally and partner. Indeed, if the US does not want to be the world’s policeman, it needs allies. The US won’t have partners if they are berated or betrayed.
Third, regional countries are going to have to come together in an environment where vacuums are forming and Ankara, Tehran, and Moscow are all seeking to fill the space. If there is a change in leadership in Washington, the readiness of a new administration to look at the region differently, and do more with its partners, will surely be influenced by the reality of demonstrably more effective local partnerships.
Fourth, the developments in Iraq, Lebanon, Algeria and Sudan are reminders that frustration with governments ineffective in delivering services, jobs and decent infrastructure will sooner or later boil over. In Iraq and Lebanon, in particular, it shows that even if the Iranians have gained enormous leverage, even veto power of what those governments can do, there may well be a backlash against the Iranians because of governance failures. While Iranian proxies – Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units - will go to great lengths, using force, propaganda and targeted killings, to preserve their power, there is genuine vulnerability. It will be interesting to see if the Iranian leadership recognizes this.
Regardless, the lessons for all Arab governments is to produce better governance and continuing modernization, and reforms that can be seen and felt by their publics. That, too, is likely to influence American readiness over time to continue to play a role in the Middle East.
*Ambassador Dennis Ross, a former special assistant to President Barack Obama, is counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He is the co-author of the new book Be Strong and of Good Courage: How Israel’s Most Important Leaders Shaped Its Destiny.

EU Supports Iran - World's Leading Executioner of Children
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/October 28/2019
European leaders, of course, who seem never to tire of sanctimoniously posturing on behalf of human rights, are meanwhile pursuing appeasement policies with a government that is called the world's leading executioner and torturer of children -- and others.
Two 17-year-old boys, who apparently did not even did not even know about their death sentences, were flogged before being executed.
Iran's Islamic Penal Code also allows girls as young as 9 and boys as young as 15 to be executed. Vague charges are generally brought up by the Islamic Republic's judiciary system or the Revolutionary Court, such as "waging war against God". These charges can be stretched to allow for presumably lesser acts, such as criticizing the Supreme Leader, to become a crime, so that that an order of execution can be carried out.
Earlier this year, the Iranian government was in the process of executing three Kurdish children: Mohammad Kalhori, Barzan Nasrollahzadeh, and Shayan Saeedpour.
The other two favorite pastimes of which the EU also never seems to tire are: increasing its censorship and demonizing Israel, the only democracy in the Middle East, and one that actually implements human rights. When will the EU finally become nauseated by its own hypocritical self-righteousness?
European leaders, who seem never to tire of sanctimoniously posturing on behalf of human rights, are meanwhile pursuing appeasement policies with Iran's regime -- the world's leading executioner and torturer of children and others.
The European Union continues to assist Iran's ruling mullahs in evading US sanctions through appeasement policies, including a payment mechanism labeled as INSTEX. The initials stand for Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges; the organization is a payment mechanism that will permit European firms and corporations to continue doing business with the Iranian government in spite of US economic sanctions against Tehran.
The European Union recently boasted in a statement:
"France, Germany, and the United Kingdom informed participants that INSTEX had been made operational and available to all EU member states, and that the first transactions are being processed".
In other words, the EU is legitimizing the despotic theocratic establishment through trade and diplomatic relationships, as well as empowering the it by helping Iran's ruling clerics gain more revenues.
European leaders, of course, who seem never to tire of sanctimoniously posturing on behalf of human rights, are meanwhile pursuing appeasement policies with a government that is the world's leading executioner and torturer of children -- and others.
Some of the children who have been executed are as young as 12. The United Nations Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Iran, Javaid Rehman, recently pointed to the alarming issue of executions of children and adolescents:
"In 2018, there were seven reported cases of executions of child offenders. Among the most recent cases, on 25 April 2019, two 17-year-old children, Mehdi Sohrabifar and Amin Sedaghat, were executed in Adilabad prison in Shiraz, Fars Province. The two were reportedly forced to confess under torture."
Two 17-year-old boys, who apparently did not even did not even know about their death sentences, were flogged before being executed. The Iranian authorities did not even inform the children's families about their executions in advance. Later, Iran's Legal Medicine Organization told the families to come and collect their bodies.
It is worth noting that due to the lack of transparency, the official number of children being executed under the Islamic rule of Iran is believed to be higher. As Amnesty International acknowledged:
"We have the details of 49 people on Iran's death row who were under 18 at the time of the crime they are alleged to have committed. The UN says there are at least 160 such people facing execution in the country. In fact, there are likely to be many more young offenders on Iranian death rows, as use of capital punishment in Iran is often shrouded in secrecy."
The Islamic Republic's Penal Code allows executions to be carried out by many different methods, such as hanging, stoning, and firing squad.
In addition, Iran's Islamic Penal Code allows girls as young as 9 and boys as young as 15 to be executed. Vague charges are generally brought up by the Islamic Republic's judiciary system or the Revolutionary Court, such as "waging war against God" (spreading moharebeh, "corruption on earth"), protesting, or "endangering the country's national security." These charges can be stretched to allow for supposedly lesser acts, such as criticizing the Supreme Leader, to become crimes, so an order of execution can be carried out.
Although Iran ratified the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, the government has made no effort to alter the country's Penal Code. According to the Norwegian-based organization, Iran Human Rights (IHR), which closely monitors executions in Iran, the country is the world's leading executioner of children:
"Despite ratifying the United Nations' Convention on the Rights of the Child which bans the death penalty for offenses committed at under 18 years of age, Iran stays the world's top executioner of juvenile offenders. According to reports by IHR, Iranian authorities have executed at least 40 juvenile offenders since 2013."
Currently, the Iranian government is in the process of executing three more children. Most recently, the Amnesty International called Iran to stop the execution of three Kurdish boys, Mohammad Kalhori, Barzan Nasrollahzadeh, and Shayan Saeedpour. Saleh Higazi, deputy Middle East and North Africa director at Amnesty International, said in statement:
"The Iranian authorities must act quickly to save these young men's lives. Failing to stop their execution would be another abhorrent assault on children's rights by Iran."
It is unclear whether the executions have been carried out.
The other two favorite pastimes of which the EU also seems never to tire are its increasing its censorship and demonizing Israel, the only democracy in the Middle East, and one that actually implements human rights. When will the EU finally become nauseated by its own hypocritical self-righteousness?
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Italy: Mass Legalization of Migrants is Suicidal
Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/October 28/2019
"In my son's kindergarten there is a serious integration problem, I have to take him away".... At the time of enrollment, Mohamed explained, they had seen drawings with flags of all nationalities in the school, but, "when we arrived at school the first day, we found ourselves in a class with all foreign children. The teachers are even struggling to pronounce the children's names.
The migrant reception center on the island of Lampedusa, the front line of Italy's migration crisis, is now in a state of "collapse" due to the rapidly rising numbers of arrivals.
"The lifestyle of the migrants will be ours". — Laura Boldrini, former president of Italy's Parliament; Il Giornale, 2015.
Will Italians integrate into the new culture of the migrants?
With a native population already shrinking, if Italy is open to the mass legalization of migrants, we should be aware that it will be culturally suicidal.
In Italy, last month, the number of migrants arriving from Africa surged. The migrant reception center on the island of Lampedusa, the front line of Italy's migration crisis, is now in a state of "collapse" due to the rapidly rising number of arrivals. The entire south of Italy is now trying to deal with migrants. Pictured: Migrants crossing from Libya to Europe wait to be rescued from a boat by crew members from the Migrant Offshore Aid Station Phoenix on May 18, 2017, off Lampedusa, Italy. (Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)
Describing Italy, Gerard Baker, former editor in chief of the Wall Street Journal, recently wrote:
"In much of the country... depopulation is advancing. Moving into the empty spaces have been waves of immigrants, many from North Africa and the Middle East. The migrants have filled vital gaps in the labor force, but the transformation of Italian towns has left increasing numbers of citizens resentful, fearful for their identity."
He went on to call this transformation, "a kind of pioneer of Western decline". Already, the effects of mass migration are becoming dramatically visible in many of Italy's elementary schools. In just the last few days, examples from two large cities have surfaced.
The first was in Turin, Italy's fourth largest city, where there are now elementary school classes with not even one Italian child: "In all classes, school principal Aurelia Provenza explained, the percentage of foreigners is very high, equal to 60% of the total number of pupils".
The second example comes from Bologna. "In my son's kindergarten there is a serious integration problem, I have to take him away," says Mohamed, a 34-year-old of Moroccan origin who arrived in Italy when he was 4 years old.
"I don't want to be seen as a racist myself as I am Moroccan, but the municipality must know that there is no integration by putting more than 20 foreign children into classes".
At the time of enrollment, Mohamed explained, they had seen drawings with flags of all nationalities in the school, but, "when we arrived at school the first day, we found ourselves in a class with all foreign children. The teachers are even struggling to pronounce the children's names."
We have now reached a paradox: immigrants are taking their children out from classes where, under multiculturalism, segregation is surging. "School performance falls when classes exceed 30% foreigners; it is a crucial threshold that should be avoided or otherwise monitored", said Costanzo Ranci, professor of Economic Sociology, and author of a recent report.
Both of the above cases have been the subject of much public debate. In Italy, last month, the number of migrants arriving from Africa surged, after having declined for most of the last two years. The migrant reception center on the island of Lampedusa, the front line of Italy's migration crisis, is now in a state of "collapse" due to the rapidly rising number of arrivals. The entire south of Italy is now trying to deal with migrants.
According to projections from the UN Population Division, the population of sub-Saharan Africa will double in 30 years, adding an additional 1 billion people and accounting for more than half the global population growth between now and 2050. Italy, which already has the third-largest population of migrants in Europe, is undergoing an "unbearable" crisis, and now faces the real risk of an "Africanisation", as Stephen Smith called it in his book, The Scramble for Europe.
There are many voices of concern. Cardinal Robert Sarah, author of a new book, The Day Is Now Far Spent, about the crisis of the West, compares the current influx of migrants to the invasions of barbarians that brought down the Roman Empire. If Europe's policies toward migrants do not change, Sarah warns, Europe will be "invaded by foreigners, just as Rome was invaded by barbarians."
"If Europe disappears, and with it the priceless values of the Old Continent, Islam will invade the world and we will completely change our culture, anthropology and moral vision".
An Italian think-tank, Fondazione Fare Futuro, also just predicted that due to mass migration and the different birthrates of Christians and Muslims, by the end of the century half of the population of Italy could be Muslim. In just ten years, the number of migrants in Italy has surged by 419%.
The native Italian population is already shrinking rapidly. Without the foreigners, every year native Italians would die (615,000) at twice the rate of births (380,000). Eurostat, the European official statistics office, calculates that by 2080, one-fifth of Italians will come from migration background (11 million of Italy's 53 million).
A recent report by the Italian national statistics office noted that the country is in a "demographic recession" not seen since the World War I, and 250,000 young Italians have fled the country. "Italy exports young graduates and imports migrants", wrote Il Giornale. Italy is expected to lose 17% of its population by 2050, and -- even without immigration -- half by the end of the century.
A Caritas-Migrantes report recently documented that since 2014, the decrease in the number of Italians is equivalent to the population of a large Italian city, say, Palermo (677,000). The dramatic decrease, however, has so far been offset by migrants.
Immigration is once again becoming a political question. Just weeks after forming a government with the Five Star Movement, the Democratic Party is advancing the so-called "birthright citizenship" -- a pledge to reverse the stringent migration policy of former Interior Minister Matteo Salvini. In Latin this right to citizenship is called ius culturae. The new law would allow foreign minors under the age of 12 to become citizens after just five years at school in Italy. The bill is being advanced by Laura Boldrini, a former president of Italy's Parliament, who famously said: "The lifestyle of the migrants will be ours". Will Italians, as in those elementary schools, integrate into the new culture of the migrants?
The current government knows perfectly well what is at stake. "From now to 2050 and 2060, we will have to face an epochal question from 50 to 60 million people who will arrive in the Mediterranean world", MP Nicola Morra, MP in the governmental majority, recently said.
The government is literally gambling with Italy's future.
Italy is the European country most exposed to migration pressure from Africa. With a native population already shrinking, if Italy is open to the mass legalization of migrants, we should be at least be aware that it will be culturally suicidal.
*Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and author.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.