English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 19/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
The harvest is plentiful, but the labourers are few; therefore ask the Lord of the harvest to send out labourers into his harvest
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 10/01-07/:”After this the Lord appointed seventy others and sent them on ahead of him in pairs to every town and place where he himself intended to go. He said to them, ‘The harvest is plentiful, but the labourers are few; therefore ask the Lord of the harvest to send out labourers into his harvest. Go on your way. See, I am sending you out like lambs into the midst of wolves. Carry no purse, no bag, no sandals; and greet no one on the road. Whatever house you enter, first say, “Peace to this house!” And if anyone is there who shares in peace, your peace will rest on that person; but if not, it will return to you. Remain in the same house, eating and drinking whatever they provide, for the labourer deserves to be paid. Do not move about from house to house.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 18-19/2020

Hariri Hospital: 5 recoveries, 2 deaths
Lebanese Presidency on 'Captagon Prince' case: No alleged role for the President in his release, but rather the request for pardon was rejected according to the opinion of the Amnesty Committee
Evening Skirmishes as Hundreds March in Beirut to Mark Year of Protests
Report: Consultations on Time, 'Problem' Postponed to Formation Stage
Rai Urges Lebanese Leaders to Agree on Government
Al-Rahi Tells Politicians to 'Lift Their Hands Off' New Govt.
Lebanese Judiciary Warns Against Inference In Blast Investigations
Lebanon’s Public Works Minister Tests Positive for COVID-19
Three Beirut Airport Employees Held for Smuggling People to Spain
Fahmi Revises List of Locked-Down Towns and Areas
MP Says FPM May Grant Govt. Confidence Even if Led by Hariri
Ibrahim in Elysee Today after Arriving from Washington
After the sanctions against Fenianus … this is what Schenker told...
Lebanon spymaster holds ‘positive’ US talks on intel sharing and hostages/Joyce Karam/The National/October 18/2020
Naqoura talks a step towards normalcy, not normalisation/Jerry Sorkin/The Arab Weekly/October 18/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 18-19/2020

Armenia, Azerbaijan Trade Accusations of Breaking New Truce
We are Not Afraid': France Rallies after Beheading of Teacher
Iran Says UN Arms Embargo on Tehran Has Been Lifted
Pompeo Warns of Sanctions for Any Arms Sales to Iran
End of UN arms embargo does not change much for Iran
Iran signals intent to send weapons to Yemen as arms embargo expires
US-Israel delegation in Bahrain in first steps to normalisation
'Israel is extending its hand in peace to the people of Bahrain'
Top Palestinian Official Hospitalized in Israel after Contracting Virus
Syria Denounces New EU Sanctions against 7 Ministers
 

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 18-19/2020

Trump has an opportunity to intervene in Nagorno-Karabakh/Raghida Dergham/The National/October 18/2020
France: Death to Free Speech/Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/October 18/2020
Is France ready to defeat those who beheaded a teacher?/Giulio Meotti/Arutz Sheva/October 18/2020
For Republicans, Amy Coney Barrett's confirmation will reign supreme/Hussein Ibish/The National/October 18/2020
Indicators point to imminent new uprising in Iran/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 18/2020
Ahwazi Arabs need world’s help to win their rights/Maria Maalouf/Arab News/October 18/2020
Greece, Turkey cannot rely on EU to resolve crisis/Yasar Yakis/Arab News/October 18/2020
The time bomb at the top of the world/Durwood Zaelke and Mario Molina/Arab News/October 18/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 18-19/2020

Hariri Hospital: 5 recoveries, 2 deaths
NNA/October 18/2020
Rafic Hariri University Hospital announced on Sunday, in its daily report on the latest developments about the emerging Coronavirus 'COVID-19', the recovery of five patients and the death of two patients.
The report indicated the following:
- Number of examinations conducted in the hospital laboratories during the past 24 hours: 330
- Number of infected patients currently receiving treatment at the hospital: 89
- Number of suspected cases during the past 24 hours: 23
- Number of recovered patients during the past 24 hours: 5
- Total number of recoveries at the hospital to-date: 568
- Number of cases transferred from the intensive care to the isolation unit after improvement: 1
- Number of critical cases inside the hospital: 31
- Number of death cases: 2

Lebanese Presidency on 'Captagon Prince' case: No alleged role for the President in his release, but rather the request for pardon was rejected according to the opinion of the Amnesty Committee
NNA/October 18/2020
The Lebanese Presidency Information Office issued a statement on Sunday, in which it categorically denied the recent media circulated news concerning the dossier of Prince Abdel-Mohsen bin Walid bin Abdel-Aziz Al Saud, dubbed the 'Captagon Prince', and the alleged role of His Excellency President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, in releasing him and lifting his travel ban.
The Presidency refuted such allegations, "which are tantamount to slander and moral assault."
In this connection, the Presidency statement clarified the following:
First - On October 26, 2015, the Emir was arrested after trying to leave Rafic Hariri International Airport on board a private plane, attempting to smuggle 1900Kg of Captagon drug in his luggage
Second - On March 27, 2019, the Criminal Court in Mount Lebanon issued a ruling against him
Third: On April 26, 2020, he was released at the end of his sentence, with a travel ban
Fourth: On May 2, 2020, a special pardon request for the Emir was referred to the Office of the Presidency of the Republic by the Minister of Justice, submitted by the Emir and registered under the number 142 /2019
Fifth: On July 21, 2020, the request for special pardon received from the Ministry of Justice was returned, with the President's decision to reject it "in accordance with the opinion of the Amnesty Committee"
Sixth: On the same date, i.e. July 21, 2020, the Appeal Attorney General in Beirut lifted the travel ban off the Emir, who left Lebanon on July 24, 2020.
Accordingly and in line with these irrefutable facts, the Information Office of the Presidency of the Republic urged all media outlets to seek the proper and accurate information from its source before making any accusations, in order to avoid misleading the public opinion.

Evening Skirmishes as Hundreds March in Beirut to Mark Year of Protests
Agence France Presse/October 18/2020
Hundreds marched in Lebanon's capital Saturday to mark the first anniversary of a non-sectarian protest movement that has rocked the political elite but has yet to achieve its goal of sweeping reform. A whirlwind of hope and despair has gripped the country in the year since protests began, as an economic crisis and a devastating port explosion two months ago pushed Lebanon deeper into decay. Two governments have resigned since the movement started but the country's barons, many of them warlords from the 1975-1990 civil war, remain firmly in power despite international as well as domestic pressure for change. On Saturday, hundreds of people brandishing placards and Lebanese flags gathered in Martyrs' Square in the heart of Beirut in a scene reminiscent of last year's rallies. They later marched towards the stricken port, observing a minute of silence just short of their destination before holding a candlelit vigil near ground zero at 6:07 pm (1507 GMT). That was the precise time on August 4 when a huge stockpile of ammonium nitrate fertilizer exploded, killing more than 200 people and devastating swathes of the capital -- a disaster widely blamed on the corruption and incompetence of the hereditary elite. Activists installed a metallic monument at the site to mark the anniversary of their October 17 "revolution". "For a year, we have been on the streets ... and nothing has changed," said Abed Sabbagh, a protester in his seventies. "Our demand is the removal of a corrupt political class that continues to compete for posts and seats" despite everything happening in the country, he told AFP from Beirut's main protest camp. Clashes later broke out between protesters and police, when a handful of demonstrators hurled stones and security forces fired tear gas to break up the crowds, an AFP photographer said.
'Deeply ruined'
The immediate trigger for last year's demonstrations was a government move to tax WhatsApp calls, but they swiftly swelled into a nationwide movement demanding an end to a system of confessional power-sharing that protesters say has tarnished public life. Lebanon's deepest economic downturn since the civil war has led to growing unemployment, poverty and hunger, pushing many to look for better opportunities abroad. "Our government along with political parties crushed our hopes," said May, a 25-year-old university student. "We are tired and deeply ruined, they left us no other choice but to leave." A spiraling coronavirus outbreak since February prompted a ban on public gatherings but even without protesters on the streets public resentment has grown. The explosion at Beirut port prompted protesters to return to the streets in its aftermath, but the movement then shifted most of its energy to relief operations to fill in for what it sees as an absent state. The political class has since failed to form a new government that can meet the demands of the street and international donors who have refused to release desperately needed funds. French President Emmanuel Macron, who visited Lebanon twice in the aftermath of the port blast, said the country's ruling class had "betrayed" the people by failing to act swiftly and decisively.
- 'Daunting and difficult'

President Michel Aoun is due to hold consultations with the main factions in parliament next week before designating a new prime minister for the third time in less than a year. Saad Hariri, who bowed out in the face of the first protests last October, is expected to make a comeback in an appointment that activists are likely to reject. Aoun on Saturday renewed his call for protest leaders to work with the state and existing institutions -- an appeal repeatedly rebuffed by activists. The protest movement has maintained a loose structure that some analysts believe could be an impediment. "The lack of political programs and leadership have made the process and progress rather daunting and difficult," said Jamil Mouawad, who teaches political science at the American University of Beirut. But academic and former minister Tarek Mitri said that the success of a protest movement "can't be measured by what has been achieved in terms of political change, nor by its ability to generate new political elites, but rather by the promises that it continues to carry, amidst all the pain."

Report: Consultations on Time, 'Problem' Postponed to Formation Stage
Naharnet/October 18/2020
The binding parliamentary consultations to pick a new premier will be held on Thursday and will not be postponed, informed sources said on Sunday.
“The problem because of which the consultations were postponed last Thursday will move to the (cabinet) formation stage, seeing as no blocs can be granted what might be withheld from other blocs,” the sources told LBCI television. Ex-PM Saad Hariri is expected to be named on Thursday to lead the new government and the country’s main Christian parties -- the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces -- have said that they will not vote for him. The FPM has argued that Hariri is not a specialist to lead a government formed purely of specialists and on Sunday one of its MPs said the bloc might grant its vote of confidence to the government while reiterating that it will not vote for Hariri. According to reports, the FPM wants a share if the government will contain politicians in addition to specialists.

Rai Urges Lebanese Leaders to Agree on Government
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 18 October, 2020
Lebanon's Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rai urged Lebanese leaders to stop delaying talks on forming a government during Sunday's mass sermon in which he blamed them for the country’s financial crisis and political deadlock. Rai was peaking a day after demonstrators marched through Beirut to mark the first anniversary of a protest movement which erupted last October against corruption and mismanagement. In the year since, Lebanon’s problems have been compounded by the coronavirus pandemic and a devastating explosion in Beirut in August, Reuters reported.
“Take your hands off the government and liberate it. You are responsible for the crime of plunging the country into total paralysis in addition to the implications of the corona pandemic,” the patriarch said in his sermon. His remarks came after two main Christian parties, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and Lebanese Forces, said this week they would not back the nomination of former Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri to lead a new government to tackle the deep economic crisis, further complicating efforts to agree a new premier. “The responsibility and accountability is collective. Who among you officials has the leisure of time to delay consultations to form a government?” he said. “No one is innocent of Lebanon’s (financial) bleeding.”In another Sunday sermon, Greek Orthodox Archbishop Elias Audi also lambasted the political elite. “The number of ministries and the names of ministers and quotas is still more important (to politicians) than the fate of Lebanon and the Lebanese,” he said. “Return to your conscience, leaders … be humble and listen to the pain of your people.”Hariri, who quit as prime minister last October in the face of the nationwide protests, has said he is ready to lead a government to implement reforms proposed by France as a way to unlock badly needed international aid. Parliamentary consultations to name a new prime minister were due to be held last Thursday, but President Michel Aoun postponed the discussions after receiving requests for a delay from some parliamentary blocs.

Al-Rahi Tells Politicians to 'Lift Their Hands Off' New Govt.
Naharnet/October 18/2020
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday called on politicians to “release” the new government from the captivity of their interests.
“No one is innocent as to Lebanon’s bleeding. The responsibility is collective and accountability should be collective. Who among you, officials and politicians, has the luxury of time to delay parliamentary consultations and the formation of the government?” al-Rahi said in his Sunday Mass sermon.
“Who among you has the jurisdiction to manipulate the Constitution, the National Pact, the Taef Accord, the system and the life of the country and the people? Lift your hands off the government and release it from captivity,” the patriarch urged.

Lebanese Judiciary Warns Against Inference In Blast Investigations
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 18 October, 2020
Lebanon's State Prosecutor office issued a statement on Saturday saying that following the blast that hit Beirut's port, investigations began at that time under the supervision Judge Ghassan Oueidat, who had previously issued a statement in August to explain to the public the scientific pattern and approach he adopted in the investigations, including the use of international capabilities in the criminal sciences. The statement also warned against any interference by any side in the investigations, saying such acts are considered direct interference in the work on the judiciary.
"The Public Prosecutor has already directed, through the embassies of the US, France and Britain, judicial assignments to the aforementioned countries, in addition to other assignments to countries concerned with the case, and he has held many meetings with criminal officials designated by those countries, informing them of his request to conduct the necessary technical investigations, while he continues to be in almost daily contact with them," the statement said. "This has resulted in receiving some reports from the aforementioned bodies and referring them to the judicial investigator, which entails informing the public opinion that the work of international forensic experts is carried out via the discriminatory public prosecutor and with the essential participation of the judicial investigator," the statement added. The statement stressed that if any side interferes into the probe process it would constitute interference in the work of the judicial authority, and further pointed to fears of distorting the proper judicial course of action and rendering the international cooperation with the judicial authority.

Lebanon’s Public Works Minister Tests Positive for COVID-19
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 18 October, 2020
Michel Najjar, the Public Works and Transport Minister in Lebanon’s caretaker government, said Sunday he was infected with the coronavirus. The minister said he would continue to carry out his duties from isolation, according to the National News Agency. Lebanon is struggling to contain an escalating infection rate since August. The country of just over 5 million has recorded over 61,000 infections that killed over 500 people. The surge is testing Lebanon’s already flailing health care system. A massive explosion in Beirut’s port on Aug. 4 that killed over 190 people further undermined the health sector and deepened an economic meltdown. The government of Hassan Diab resigned in the wake of the blast but continues in a caretaker capacity. Authorities have put more than a hundred villages and towns under lockdown. But the caretaker Health Minister, Hamad Hassan, said in remarks published Sunday that the localized lockdowns have failed, urging similar measures in major cities.

Three Beirut Airport Employees Held for Smuggling People to Spain
Naharnet/October 18/2020
Lebanon’s General Directorate of General Security on Sunday announced busting a network that was smuggling people to Spain via Beirut’s airport. In a statement, the directorate said the network was smuggling Lebanese and Palestinian nationals to the European country. “Members of the network worked at various posts at Beirut airport, including the agent of a plane used for smuggling, the operations director of a ground services company and an employee at the private aviation building,” the statement said. “The network’s members were also involved in smuggling extra weight baggage via the planes serviced by the company,” the statement added. “During interrogation, they confessed to carrying out the smuggling operations and they have since been referred to the public prosecution at the request of the relevant judicial authorities.”

Fahmi Revises List of Locked-Down Towns and Areas
Naharnet/October 18/2020
Caretaker Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi on Sunday issued a memo containing a new list of towns and areas that will be locked down as of Monday morning due to their high rate of coronavirus infections. Fahmi’s memo adds new towns to the list, removes some while some towns and areas remain listed. The minister noted that it is up to caretaker Education Minister Tarek al-Majzoub to close or keep open educational institutions in the locked-down towns and areas. The new list contains 79 towns and areas while the previous one mentioned 169. Eight neighborhoods of the northern city of Tripoli and the Northern Metn towns of Dekwaneh, Jal el-Dib and Sin el-Fil are on the new list. The list also includes five other towns in Northern Metn, 13 towns and areas in Keserwan, four towns in Akkar, six in Aley, three in Sidon, two in Tyre, two in Zgharta, five in Zahle, one in Bint Jbeil, one in Baalbek, one in Baabda, five in Nabatieh, three in Minieh-Dinniyeh, 11 in Chouf, three in Western Bekaa, one in Batroun and two in Jbeil. Lebanon reported Saturday 1,405 new coronavirus cases and eight more deaths. The new cases raise the country’s overall tally to 61,248 including 27,197 recoveries while the fatalities take the death toll to 517. Lebanon has witnessed a sharp spike in new coronavirus cases in recent months.

MP Says FPM May Grant Govt. Confidence Even if Led by Hariri
Naharnet/October 18/2020
The parliamentary bloc of the Free Patriotic Movement might grant the new government its vote of confidence although it will not name Saad Hariri in the binding parliamentary consultations to pick a new premier, an MP said Sunday. “Hariri might be designated to form the next government on Thursday, but we cannot in any way vote for Hariri to form the new government,” MP Georges Atallah of the FPM-led Strong Lebanon bloc told LBCI TV. “We have said that we don’t intend to nominate Hariri for several considerations and any phone call will not change this stance, but we might grant the government our vote of confidence if the government gives the impression that it might implement and the reforms and the roadmap that were proposed at the Pine Residence,” Atallah added. “We cannot go to a government under the label ‘government of specialists’ while its premier is a politician and at the same time (political) parties have shares in it,” the lawmaker said. He also noted that the FPM is not opposed to the formation of a so-called techno-political government but added that the PM-designate will have to talk to “all Lebanese forces.”

Ibrahim in Elysee Today after Arriving from Washington
Naharnet/October 18/2020
General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim arrived Sunday in Paris coming from Washington, MTV reported. Ibrahim had met top security officials and others from the Trump administration during his several-day visit to the U.S. capital. “Ibrahim will visit the Elysee, the palace of the French presidency, where he will hold a meeting with members of President Emmanuel Macron’s team that is in charge of the Lebanese file,” MTV said. “He will also meet with the Director of the General Directorate for External Security, Bernard Émié, who is also following up on the Lebanese file,” the TV network added, noting that Ibrahim will also meet with the of France’s domestic intelligence agency to discuss security files. Pro-Hizbullah journalist Salem Zahran meanwhile said that Ibrahim will return to Lebanon before the binding parliamentary consultations to name a new PM on Thursday, carrying the “code” of the coming period. “Prior to Washington and Paris, there was a low-profile visit to Baghdad, in which the first letters of a major economic agreement were drawn,” Zahran said.If the said agreement materializes, “it will save the treasury billions of dollars in expenditure,” Zahran added.

After the sanctions against Fenianus … this is what Schenker told...
AlKhaleej Today/October 18/2020
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, sources stopped at the paradox that accompanied the meetings of US Assistant Secretary of State David Schenker, which was characterized by his meeting and based on his desire with the leader of the “Marada” movement, former Representative Suleiman Franjieh, in exchange for his meetings not including the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Representative Gebran Bassil, Although Schenker avoided entering into the reasons that dictated that he excluded him from his meeting schedule in his meetings, while a Western diplomatic source referred the question to Basil because he had the certainty of the news. She confirmed that Schenker informed Franjieh that the US sanctions imposed on the former minister, Yusef Fenianos, did not target him personally and had nothing to do with the “apostasy”, and said that the meeting dealt with negotiations on demarcating the borders and the internal situation in light of President Michel Aoun’s postponement of the parliamentary consultations required to name the president in charge of forming the new government Although they are at odds with regard to the position of the Syrian regime.The political sources pointed out that the statement issued by the Presidency of the Republic regarding the Aoun-Schenker meeting was not accurate because it did not reflect the atmosphere that prevailed in him, and said that Schenker confirmed to Franjieh and former prime ministers Najib Mikati and Saad Hariri Washington’s support for the French initiative, and therefore it insists on accelerating the formation of The government is based on adherence to the road map put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron. She said that Franjieh criticized Aoun’s initiative to postpone consultations at Bassil’s request, and told Schenker that Aoun invoked the pact to justify the delay, although he ignored it when forming the government of Prime Minister Hassan Diab, as he missed a major component, namely Hariri, who leads one of the largest parliamentary blocs, and believed that the pact was not discretionary. To Aoun whenever he wants. He asked: Do those opposed to him lack the charter? These were the details of the news After the sanctions against Fenianus … this is what Schenker told... for this day. We hope that we have succeeded by giving you the full details and information. To follow all our news, you can subscribe to the alerts system or to one of our different systems to provide you with all that is new. It is also worth noting that the original news has been published and is available at saudi24news and the editorial team at AlKhaleej Today has confirmed it and it has been modified, and it may have been completely transferred or quoted from it and you can read and follow this news from its main source.

Lebanon spymaster holds ‘positive’ US talks on intel sharing and hostages
Joyce Karam/The National/October 18/2020
جويس كرم/ذا ناشيونال: اللواء عباس إبراهيم "سيد التجسس اللبناني" يجري محادثات أمريكية "إيجابية" حول تبادل المعلومات الاستخباراتية والرهائن
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/91431/joyce-karam-the-national-lebanon-spymaster-holds-positive-us-talks-on-intel-sharing-and-hostages-%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%b3-%d9%83%d8%b1%d9%85-%d8%b0%d8%a7-%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%b4%d9%8a/
Over four days, Gen Abbas Ibrahim met with officials from the White House, State Department and CIA.
Lebanon’s head of General Security Abbas Ibrahim is hopeful of boosting intelligence sharing with the US and working on releasing more hostages held in Iran and Syria, he told The National on a four-day visit to meet officials from the White House, State Department and the CIA.
Mr Ibrahim, 61, heads Lebanon’s most powerful security service after the military and has a reputation as a savvy negotiator who has helped secure the release of multiple US residents and nationals as well as brokered deals with extremists like ISIS and militant Palestinian factions to end bouts of fighting in Lebanon.
Despite having a close relationship with Hezbollah, Mr Ibrahim received a warm welcome from the Trump administration. On this visit, he met with National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien, director of CIA Gina Haspel and Undersecretary of State David Hale, although American officials were cagey about the visit.The meetings reinforce the gradual change in US-Lebanon relations over the last 15 years. For decades before Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005, Damascus took the lead in co-ordinating with the US intelligence on matters related to Beirut and on freeing hostages. But now, Mr Ibrahim sees young but growing relations with the US on intelligence sharing.
“We have a good working relationship with the Americans, and I am hopeful,” Mr Ibrahim said. Mr Ibrahim was involved last year in securing the release of US national Sam Goodwin from Syria and of US permanent resident Nizar Zakka from prison in Iran. Austin Tice, an American journalist kidnapped in Syria in 2012 and believed to be in the custody of Damascus, is a top priority for the Trump administration. In March, US President Donald Trump sent a letter Syrian President Bashar Al Assad urging him to release Mr Tice.
“Syria, please work with us. We would appreciate you letting him out,” Mr Trump said later.
Mr Ibrahim is seen as a key mediator on the Austin Tice file and was known to be in Damascus in May where he said he was discussing cross border security and smuggling. But the Lebanese spy head refused to give any details on the Tice case saying, there “are no confirmations about his status” including whether or not he is alive. Mr O’Brien told The National in April last year that the US “is confident” Mr Tice is alive. But the Assad government has not responded to Mr Trump’s letter. Diplomatic sources told The National that full US withdrawal from Syria is one demand that Damascus is mulling in return for releasing Tice. Randa Slim, director of track two dialogue at the Middle East Institute, described Mr Ibrahim as a key interlocutor on the issue of hostages.
“Mr Ibrahim is in a position to deliver on the US hostages file in both Syria and Iran,” she said. “He has excellent relations with Hezbollah leaders, and has woven, over the years, a web of personal relationship and contacts with senior Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian officials in the intelligence and political circles.”Mr Ibrahim received an award on Friday from the Foley Foundation for his efforts to help release hostages.
Mr Ibrahim’s visit also comes just days after the US-led talks between Israel and Lebanon got underway to agree on the maritime border between the two countries. The Lebanese official, however, said that the talks were “a long shot” as Israel has refused to concede to Lebanon’s sovereignty over the disputed 860-square-kilometre area of sea between the lines each side feels is the correct boundary. The issue has taken on an urgency as it lies near areas where Israel has found proven oil and gas reserves and part of the disputed zone lies in a bloc that Lebanon recently licensed for oil and gas exploration.
Hanin Ghaddar, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Mr Ibrahim’s visit was a win for Lebanon’s political elite, backed by Hezbollah
“It’s a good move to break the isolation on the Lebanese government and political elite,” Ms Ghaddar told The National, referring to recent US sanctions on Beirut officials as well as tough talk on the need to see reforms to address the country’s crises and demands of protesters on the streets.
“This elite – mainly Hezbollah and its allies – are trying to use talks with the US in order to avoid more sanctions before the [US] elections. They hope that with the negotiations, and Mr Ibrahim coming to the US, they might be able to weather the storms (sanctions and pressure) until the elections on November 3.”
As Lebanon’s anti-government protests enter their second year, Ms Ghaddar said the warm welcome Mr Ibrahim received was a snub to those in the streets. “The US should continue supporting the Lebanese people, continue pressure on Lebanese officials, and avoid sending conflicting messages.”
US officials have been discreet about Mr Ibrahim's visit and repeated requests for comment to the White House, State Department and CIA were not returned but no agency denied the meetings.

Naqoura talks a step towards normalcy, not normalisation
Jerry Sorkin/The Arab Weekly/October 18/2020
More changes are likely to follow as other Arab countries ponder potential new alliances that could serve their interests and those of the region.
In a different albeit related part of the Middle East, potentially groundbreaking talks took place October 14 near the small southern Lebanese village of Naqoura, from where one can see the beautiful landscapes of both Lebanon and northern Israel. These talks took place away from the glare of the White House lawn and teams of reporters, and involved instead a small contingent of Lebanese and Israeli officials who met under the auspices of the UN and were helped by the mediation of senior US State Department officials, including US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker, who is continuing the efforts of his predecessor, Ambassador David Satterfield.
The expectations for these talks, which were described as “productive” by the UN and the US, have been intentionally kept low. The premise of the talks was to further discuss demarcation lines in a region of the Mediterranean that borders both Israel and Lebanon and has shown early promise of natural gas and oil riches. Determining the maritime borders would allow both countries to pursue efforts to develop undersea energy resources. For Lebanon, a country on the edge of a financial precipice, the issue is of existential proportions.
Surely, there are wins to be had for both sides based on the progress of these talks. But the fact that they are taking place at all is a tribute to the the participants’ agreement to give negotiations a chance and to US willingness to moderate the dispute, as earlier attempts that would have had the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) serve as the mediator were not agreeable to Israel.
Both sides were represented by a small contingent of military and civilian representatives. These talks could not have taken place without the acquiescence of Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s Shia Amal party and its radical ally Hezbollah, both of which control much of what takes place in Lebanese politics. Despite their attempts to downplay the political significance of the talks, Berri and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah knew in advance there was a wider context for the talks than technical demarcation details. They were willing to grin and bear it, but not to the extent of acknowledging normalisation intent.
Why now? Lebanon is on the verge of political and financial collapse. Governed for years by a parliament whose MPs were either among the former “warlords of Lebanon” or, in many cases, their self-appointed heirs, the level of corruption has decimated the country financially. It has ruined what used to be a relatively prosperous nation with a large middle class of Western-looking and well-educated population that enjoyed life. The small country used to count on a diaspora of some 14 million to send remittances to their families back home. The financial bankruptcy of the country in the last few years, primarily attributed to years of unchecked corruption due to the sectarian system and its selfish patrons, has destroyed Lebanon’s economy. It has also sparked a huge protest movement as the dire crisis brought Lebanese from every economic class and sectarian stripe together to demonstrate and aggressively call for deep change. Even Israelis are saying today that normalisation is not in the cards. They know they can surely benefit from the oil and gas opportunities off the country’s shores, but they realise they could ultimately see mutual benefits from any form of normalcy with their northern neighbour. Sometime in the future, the self-described “Start Up Nation” could sell to the Lebanese the assets that both the UAE and Bahrain have sought through normalisation.
Even Egypt and Jordan have found many economic and security advantages in engaging with Israel, though they have remained reluctant to publicly acknowledge such dividends. Despite peace treaties with Tel Aviv, Cairo and Amman still have to deal with the psychological legacies of war that dampen their populations’ enthusiasm for a warmer peace with Israel.
Lebanon is another story. The August 4 blast at the Beirut seaport, which has claimed hundreds of lives and displaced thousands, coupled with the country’s long burden of shouldering some 1.5 million Syrian refugees, has forced the country to seek new avenues to rebuild.
As French President Emmanuel Macron made clear when he visited Lebanon immediately after the Beirut port explosion, France is willing to help, but not until sufficient controls are put in place to ensure that aid does not fall into the very hands that have brought Lebanon to its knees. This caveat has been echoed by other countries and international aid organisations that are willing to help Lebanon.
The Naqoura talks have not set in motion a normalisation process, but rather a process that could boost chances of reaching some level of normalcy with Lebanon.
The mediated negotiations make the argument that a different reality is possible, and while no one is placing any lofty hopes on the results of these talks, my own multiple visits to Lebanon in 2018 and 2019, including meetings with scores of Lebanese from every sectarian stripe, both in Beirut and in many parts of the country, lead me to believe there are possibilities of another world in the future.
Conversations would frequently turn to the above noted possibilities — how the region could change if only Lebanon and Israel could be cooperative neighbours rather than neighbours that are technically in “a state of war.” Nearly every conversation morphed into a different tone once the people I met with were sure they were no longer within earshot of a possible listener. Many of these same people frequently told me how much they respected what Israel has achieved and how they hoped one day they could share their commonalities of Western vision and entrepreneurship.
But there are also decades of memories that still linger in the minds of many Lebanese: Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982, periodic fighting between Israeli and Hezbollah troops from the late 1980s until 2006, a renewed war again in 2006, with Israel trying to wipe out Hezbollah and occasional bombings by both Israel and Hezbollah troops that have taken place after. All of this has left many Lebanese mindful of the mass death and destruction these wars have brought to their soil and caused them to view Hezbollah as the “resistance fighters,” as they are the only Lebanese fighters to have repelled Israel’s military.
These years of conflict and their psychological impact have underlied the Naqoura talks. In a more peaceful Middle East planet, one would have imagined Israeli technical teams driving three hours from Israel into Beirut and using their extensive experience in saving lives.
Israel is not there yet, neither is Lebanon.
The Lebanese have to figure out first how to extricate themselves from their dire economic crisis and from regional entanglements that have brought their country into US crosshairs.
That starts with putting their country on the track of full independence from Iran’s damaging influence and free their politics from the smothering control of Hezbollah, a militant and foreign-agenda driven local proxy that thrives off of the demonisation of Israel and the inflated rhetoric of “resistance.”
Quiet diplomacy, away from the glare of microphones and five-star hotels, is the beginning of what could be benefits for the Lebanese, who deserve to live in peace, provide for their families and live the life that has given them a reputation for knowing how to enjoy it.
Having come so close to the brink of economic disaster, Lebanon will be tempted in the future to second guess Hezbollah when it advocates for war.
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 18-19/2020

Armenia, Azerbaijan Trade Accusations of Breaking New Truce
Agence France Presse/October 18/2020
Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of violating a new ceasefire over Nagorno-Karabakh on Sunday, as they tried for the second time in a week to bring a halt to fierce fighting over the disputed region.
The ex-Soviet neighbors agreed to a new truce from midnight on Sunday, as international mediators push for a stop to three weeks of heavy clashes over Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian region that broke from Azerbaijan's control in the 1990s. A previous ceasefire agreed a week ago fell apart amid mutual accusations and continued fighting that has left hundreds dead and forced tens of thousands from their homes. The new ceasefire deal was announced after one of the deadliest attacks on civilians so far on Saturday, when a missile strike hit a residential area of Azerbaijan's second city Ganja, killing 13 people including small children. The two sides have described the agreement as a "humanitarian truce" to allow for the exchange of prisoners and bodies. But Armenia's defense ministry said Azerbaijani forces had violated the new ceasefire only minutes after it took effect, firing artillery shells and rockets in the early hours of Sunday. Its foreign ministry said Azerbaijan had also launched an attack in a southern area of the Karabakh frontline "demonstrating to the international community its treacherous nature, which we have been dealing with for decades."Azerbaijan's defense ministry said Armenian forces had "grossly violated another agreement," accusing them of firing artillery and mortar shells in various directions and of launching early morning attacks along the frontline.
- 'We can't trust them' -
Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in a bitter conflict over Karabakh since Armenian separatists backed by Yerevan seized control of the mountainous province in a 1990s war that left 30,000 people dead.
The region's declaration of independence has not been recognized by any country, including Armenia, and it is still part of Azerbaijan under international law. The fighting that broke out three weeks ago has been the heaviest since a 1994 ceasefire and has threatened to draw in regional powers Turkey, which backs Azerbaijan, and Russia, which has a military alliance with Armenia. An AFP journalist in Karabakh's main city Stepanakert said the night had been calm on Sunday and that, unlike during previous days, the sounds of explosions could not be heard coming from frontline areas. But after the failure of other ceasefire attempts and decades of mistrust, there was little hope among city residents that a truce would take hold. "Our country is ready to respect the ceasefire but the others will not... We can't trust them," Sveta Petrosyan, a 65-year-old with two sons at the front, told AFP outside her apartment. Stepanakert has come under heavy artillery and rocket fire during the fighting and most of its residents have fled to Armenia. It was shelled again late on Friday and a few hours later the missile strike hit Ganja in Azerbaijan, levelling a row of houses and leaving 13 dead and more than 45 people injured. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev described the Ganja attack as a war crime and vowed his army would "take revenge on the battlefield".
Houses turned to rubble
An AFP team in Ganja saw rows of houses turned to rubble by the strike, which shattered walls and ripped roofs off buildings in the surrounding streets. "We were sleeping and suddenly we heard the blast. The door, glass, everything shattered over us," said Durdana Mammadova, 69, who was standing on the street at daybreak because her house was destroyed.  The clashes over Karabakh that erupted on September 27 have left more than 700 dead, including scores of civilians on both sides.  The real death toll is probably much higher, as most of the deaths have been reported among Armenian separatist forces and Azerbaijan has not released any figures on its military casualties. Both sides claim to have inflicted heavy losses. Azerbaijan says it has retaken significant territory in areas along the frontline. Armenian forces dispute these claims but have admitted to some setbacks. It is unclear what set off the latest round of fighting but Armenia has accused Turkey of encouraging longtime ally Azerbaijan to launch an offensive to retake Nagorno-Karabakh. Ankara has also been accused of supplying Syrian fighters as mercenaries to bolster Baku's forces.
France, Russia and the United States have tried for decades to mediate a resolution to the dispute over Karabakh under the "Minsk Group", but negotiations have long been stalled.

We are Not Afraid': France Rallies after Beheading of Teacher
Agence France Presse/October 18/2020
Thousands of people rallied in central Paris Sunday in a defiant show of solidarity with a teacher beheaded for showing pupils cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed. Demonstrators on the Place de la Republique held aloft posters declaring: "No to totalitarianism of thought" and "I am a teacher" in memory of murdered colleague Samuel Paty. "You do not scare us. We are not afraid. You will not divide us. We are France!" tweeted Prime Minister Jean Castex, who was among those gathered at the historic protest spot. Castex was accompanied by Education Minister Jean-Michel Blanquer, Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo and junior interior minister Marlene Schiappa who said she was there "in support of teachers, of secularism, of freedom of expression". Some in the crowd chanted "I am Samuel", echoing the "I am Charlie" cry that travelled around the world after Islamist gunmen killed 12 people at the Charlie Hebdo satirical magazine in 2015 for publishing caricatures of the Islamic prophet. Between bursts of applause, others recited: "Freedom of expression, freedom to teach." "I am here as a teacher, as a mother, as a Frenchwoman and as a republican," said participant Virginie. The Charlie Hebdo attack in 2015 unleashed a wave of Islamist violence and forced France into a national discussion about Islam's place in a secular society. After the massacre at the magazine, some 1.5 million people gather on the same Place de la Republique in support of freedom of expression.
- 'Things have to change' -
Local authorities said around 6,000 people gathered in Lyon in eastern France on Sunday. "The entire educational community is affected, and beyond it society as a whole," teachers union representative Bernard Deswarte said in Toulouse, where around 5,000 were estimated to have gathered. Hundreds more assembled in Nice on the south coast, where a man rammed a truck into a crowd on the July 14 national holiday in 2016, killing 86 people. "Everyone is in danger today," said student Valentine Mule, 18, attending the Nice rally. "Things have to change." Demonstrations were also planned for other cities. Paty was brutally murdered on his way home from the school where he taught in a suburb northwest of Paris on Friday afternoon. On Saturday, anti-terror prosecutor Jean-Francois Ricard said Paty had been the target of online threats for showing the cartoons to his civics class. Depictions of the prophet are widely regarded as taboo in Islam. A photo of the teacher and a message confessing to his murder was found on the mobile phone of his killer, 18-year-old Chechen Abdullakh Anzorov, who was shot dead by police. Witnesses said the suspect was spotted at the school on Friday asking pupils where he could find Paty.
- Online campaign -
The father of one schoolgirl had launched an online call for "mobilization" against the teacher and had sought his dismissal from the school. The girl's father and a known Islamist militant are among those arrested, along with four members of Anzorov's family. An 11th person was taken into custody on Sunday, a judicial source said, without providing details. The aggrieved father had named Paty and given the school's address in a social media post just days before the beheading which President Emmanuel Macron has labelled an Islamist terror attack. Ricard did not say if the assailant had any links to the school or had acted independently in response to the online campaign. The Russian embassy in Paris said Anzorov's family arrived in France from Chechnya when he was six to seek asylum. Locals in the Normandy town of Evreux where the attacker lived described him as low key, saying he got into fights as a child but calmed down as he became increasingly religious in recent years. Friday's attack was the second of its kind since a trial started last month over the Charlie Hebdo killings. The magazine republished the controversial cartoons in the run-up to the trial, and last month a young Pakistani man wounded two people with a meat cleaver outside Charlie Hebdo's former office.
- 'Doing his job' -
On Saturday, hundreds of pupils, teachers, parents and wellwishers flocked to Paty's school to lay white roses. "For the first time, a teacher was attacked for what he teaches," said a colleague from a neighboring town who gave only his first name, Lionel. According to his school, Paty had given Muslim children the option to leave the classroom before he showed the cartoons, saying he did not want their feelings hurt. And Kamel Kabtane, rector of the mosque of Lyon and a senior Muslim figure, told AFP on Sunday that Paty was merely been "doing his job" and had been "respectful" in doing so. Ministers who form France's defense council were to meet later Sunday to discuss the Islamist threat. A national tribute is to be held for Paty on Wednesday.

Iran Says UN Arms Embargo on Tehran Has Been Lifted
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 18 October, 2020
Iran's Foreign Ministry released an official statement on Sunday announcing the termination of arms restriction imposed on the country. It said that the definitive and unconditional termination of arms restrictions and travel bans requires no new resolution, state news agency IRNA reported. "In one of the JCPOA’s innovations, the definitive and unconditional termination of arms restrictions and travel bans requires no new resolution, nor does it require any statement or any other measure by the Security Council," the statement read." "The lifting of arms restrictions and the travel ban were designed to be automatic with no other action required," it added. The embargo on the sale of conventional arms to Iran was due to start expiring progressively from Sunday, October 18, under the terms of the UN resolution. In 2015, Iran struck a nuclear deal with the US, China, Britain, France, Germany and Russia. However, US President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the deal in 2018 and has unilaterally begun reimposing sanctions on Iran. But Washington suffered a setback in August when it failed to win support from the United Nations Security Council to indefinitely extend the arms embargo, according to AFP.Washington has said it has decided to unilaterally reinstate virtually all of the UN sanctions on Iran lifted under the accord.

Pompeo Warns of Sanctions for Any Arms Sales to Iran
Agence France Presse/October 18/2020
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday said that arms sales to Iran would breach U.N. resolutions and result in sanctions, after Tehran said the longstanding U.N. embargo on arms trade with the Islamic republic had expired. "The United States is prepared to use its domestic authorities to sanction any individual or entity that materially contributes to the supply, sale, or transfer of conventional arms to or from Iran," Pompeo said in a statement. "Every nation that seeks peace and stability in the Middle East and supports the fight against terrorism should refrain from any arms transactions with Iran."

End of UN arms embargo does not change much for Iran
The National/October 18/2020
oday a UN arms embargo imposed on Iran since 2007 is set to expire. The deadline was agreed upon in 2015 by Iran, the permanent members of the UN security council and Germany, as part of a deal meant to halt Iran's nuclear programme. And yet that deal failed to address a number of problems with Iran’s nefarious activities, including violations regarding its missile programme. Despite attempts by the US to reimpose the embargo through a complex snapback mechanism, sanctions have been lifted and Iran can theoretically import weapons. Yet most countries are unlikely to do business with the regime, as heavy US sanctions will be levied on those that do. American President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in 2018. Iran has also breached the uranium enrichment limit set by the now defunct agreement, escalating tensions between the two countries.
The flawed nuclear deal was rejected by Mr Trump and Iran’s Arab neighbours as it stopped short of providing a long-lasting solution to security threats posed by the regime. The agreement does not prevent Tehran from developing its ballistic missile programme, nor does it address its funding of armed militias that have destabilised the region for decades. From Lebanon’s Hezbollah, to the Houthis of Yemen and many of Iraq’s most potent armed factions, Iran has funded and sometimes created groups that terrorise civilians and undermine the sovereignty of Arab states.
Since pulling out of the JCPOA, the US has imposed crippling sanctions on Iran, taking a toll on its economy and its ability to support armed proxies. The sanctions include the designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is part of the country’s armed forces, as a foreign terrorist organisation. Stringent measures have also been taken against Iranian banks, with 18 of them blacklisted earlier this month.
Prominent political figures allied with Tehran have also been sanctioned in Lebanon and Iraq. Iran has undermined the two diverse yet fragile nations and used them to further its sectarian agenda and gain access to the global economy, to the detriment of ordinary Iraqis and Lebanese. One year ago, almost to the day, mass protests swept through Lebanon and Iraq. The protesters demanded an end to sectarian politics, corruption and Iran meddling in their affairs. While sanctions are a deterrent for Tehran, they do not offer a long-term solution. Iran must return to the negotiating table, with an acknowledgment of regional rights and concerns. It must agree on a new deal that takes into consideration the concerns of the countries most affected by its activities. Whether Mr Trump remains in power or not, the truth is that Iran has no choice but to negotiate a new deal
The leadership in Tehran has refused to renegotiate a better deal. Despite Mr Trump’s repeated calls to do so, the regime maintains that the lifting of US sanctions is a prerequisite to any talks. Since 2018 Iran has stalled negotiations in the hopes that Mr Trump, who has driven the maximum pressure campaign against the regime, might be voted out of office in November. For two years, the people of Iran have suffered from economic sanctions while their leaders refused to resolve the issue diplomatically. This strategy has bought the regime time, at the expense of its people. Whether Mr Trump remains in power or not, the truth is that Iran has no choice but to negotiate a new deal sooner or later. Avoiding to have to face this reality has only prolonged the suffering of Iranians and added to the instability of the region.

Iran signals intent to send weapons to Yemen as arms embargo expires
Mina Aldroubi/The National/October 18/2020
Yemeni government calls on international community to extend the sanctions on Tehran. Iranian officials signalled their intent to supply Yemen’s Houthi rebels with arms following the expiry of a decades long UN arms embargo that barred them from purchasing foreign weapons. Tehran has been accused of supporting the rebels who staged a coup in 2014, ousting the internationally recognised government from the capital Sanaa and sparking a devastating five year conflict. "We will be able to sell our arms to anyone we choose and we can purchase arms from anyone we choose,” President Hassan Rohani said on Sunday. The president’s comments were reiterated by Iran’s UN mission spokesman Alireza Miryousefi who said Tehran is prepared to both buy and sell military equipment and weapons. "Iran has many friends and trading partners, and has a robust domestic arms industry to ensure its defence requirements against foreign aggression...We will trade, on the basis of our national interests, with other countries in this field", Mr Miryousefi told Newsweek.
He did not specify which countries Iran will sell its weapons to but a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee in the Iranian Parliament, Abu Al Fadl Hassan Beki said it will most likely go to Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
“Iran will be free to buy and sell defence equipment after the embargo is lifted, which will allow us to easily sell weapons to Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon,” Mr Beki told Russian state-owned news agency Sputnik.
Yemen’s government condemned the statements made by the Iranian officials and called on the international community to extend the arms embargo. The country’s information minister, Muammar Al Eryani, said the statements are“confirmation” of the Iranian regime's intentions to send weapons and advanced technology to the Houthi rebels. “For years they have been involved in managing smuggling activities in to Yemen which is a blatant violation of UN Security Council resolutions regarding the arms embargo on the militia, and a flagrant challenge to the international community,” Mr Al Eryani said.
The embargo on Tehran meant it could not purchase foreign weapons like tanks and fighter jets as planned under its nuclear deal with world powers, despite objections from the United States. Washington banned Tehran from buying major foreign weapon systems in 2010 amid tensions over its nuclear program. An earlier embargo targeted Iranian arms exports. “Every nation that seeks peace and stability in the Middle East and supports the fight against terrorism should refrain from any arms transactions with Iran,” the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, said in a statement. Providing arms to Iran will only aggravate tensions in the region, he warned, adding that it would put more dangerous weapons into the hands of terrorist groups and proxies. The development comes as Tehran appointed a new ambassador to the Houthi held capital, Sanaa, on Saturday. "Hassan Eyrlou... ambassador for the Islamic Republic of Iran in Yemen, has arrived in Sanaa," foreign ministry spokesman Said Khatibzadeh told the Fars news agency on Saturday. Iran has not appointed an ambassador to Yemen since 2015 when Mr Eyrlou's predecessor left Sanaa, the foreign ministry said this was due to attacks on the embassy. The government condemned the move and said it does not recognise the presence of any diplomatic officials In Sanaa who are linked to the rebels.
 

US-Israel delegation in Bahrain in first steps to normalisation
The National/October 18/2020
El Al Flight 973 landed in Manama on Sunday afternoon
A joint US-Israel delegation visited Bahrain on Sunday, where officials signed bilateral agreements following an announcement last month of the intention to normalise relations.
El Al Flight 973 – a nod to the international dialling code for Bahrain – flew from Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion airport through Saudi Arabia’s airspace to Manama, landing at Bahrain International Airport on Sunday afternoon. They were met by Bahrain's Foreign Minister, Abdullatif Al Zayani. "Today we build on that historic occasion at the White House last month, taking the next steps to implement the declaration in support of peace and the Abraham Accords," Mr Zayani said.
"We do so in the conviction that this approach of engagement and co-operation is the most effective, the most sustainable, means to bring about a genuine and lasting peace, one which safeguards the rights of the Middle East's peoples."The Israeli delegation was led by National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat and Foreign Ministry director-general Alon Ushpiz. The US team was headed by Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin. After a press conference on the tarmac, the delegation headed to the office of the Deputy Prime Minister in Gudaibiyah Palace.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al Khalifa said Bahrain's approach to peace in the region aims to boost efforts to resolve the Palestinian issue on the basis of the two-state solution, the international legitimacy and the Arab Peace Initiative, the Bahrain News Agency reported.
Mr Ben-Shabbat said before take-off that the visit would “translate plans to actions and concrete agreements” with the signing of a range of deals involving finance, investment, trade, tourism, communications, technology and agriculture. Another Israeli official said the visit represents the official establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries with the sides expected to sign a joint statement establishing full diplomatic relations. "The opportunities here are quite enormous, both economic, trade, investment cultural and security between the three countries," Mr Mnuchin said. The visit came just days after the Knesset overwhelmingly approved the Abraham Accord between Israel and the UAE, and one month after the accord was signed on the White House lawn on September 15. As part of the deal to normalise relations, the UAE and Bahrain and Israel will eventually establish embassies and exchange ambassadors. The Israeli official said the Israeli embassy was expected to open in Bahrain in the coming months. Egypt and Jordan are the only other two Arab states to sign diplomatic treaties with Israel, in 1979 and 1994, respectively.
The Israeli delegation is slated to fly back to Tel Aviv later on Sunday, while the Americans will head to the UAE before flying to Israel on Tuesday. Last month, the first known commercial flight between the two countries brought a delegation of Israeli officials to Manama to discuss co-operation between Israel and Bahrain following the signing of an agreement to normalise ties.

'Israel is extending its hand in peace to the people of Bahrain'

Arutz Sheva/October 18/2020
Joint Israeli-American delegation arrives in Manama to formally establish diplomatic relations between Israel and Bahrain.
A joint delegation of Israeli and American officials arrived in Manama, Bahrain Sunday afternoon to begin work on formally establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and Bahrain, in keeping with the Abraham Accords deal signed by the two countries. At a ceremony at the airport shortly after the delegation landed, Bahrain’s foreign minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani welcomed the US and Israeli officials, and praised the Trump administration’s efforts to secure peace in the Middle East. “Welcome. We are beginning the implementation of the peace accords signed in Washington. This path is the most effective way for achieving peace in the Middle East.”“We are doing this with optimism that this peace will lead to security and stability in the region, and that it will allow young people in the region to realize their ambitions. We are laying the foundations for relations between us and for cooperation with the US. I hope that this visit is a step on the path to a stable and improving Middle East in which all countries are able to resolve their conflicts through dialogue.”
Israeli National Security Council chief Meir Ben-Shabbat said that Israel “hopes to build deep ties not only between governments, but also between peoples.”“Israel is extending its hand in peace to the people of Bahrain and its leadership. We are changing the region. We hope to host you in Israel soon.”US Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin said that the Trump administration is currently working on additional normalization deals between Israel and other Arab states. “We hope that we will be able to make an announcement about them in the near future.”
The delegation departed from Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport Sunday morning, becoming the first ever commercial flight between Israel and Bahrain.
Ben-Shabbat, who is leading the Israeli delegation, said before takeoff:
"I am excited and proud to head the Israeli delegation that is leaving today for talks in Bahrain. We are leaving for the talks in order to translate the peace declaration that was signed on the White House lawn by US President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Bahraini Foreign Minister Dr. Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, on behalf of King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, into practical plans and concrete agreements. "Today we will hold discussions in professional teams and working groups on a long series of issues: Finance and investments, trade and economy, tourism, aviation, communications, culture, science, technology, agriculture and others. "We are excited and together we will pray that G-d might lead us to peace and that we might reach our destination for good life and peace."
"We're here in the land of Abraham to take the next step in the Abraham Accords," US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman said, adding that "Abraham gave birth to 2 great nations" that were "rivals, but they reconciled some 3500 years ago. Today, we’re bringing the Bible back to life. The children of Isaac and Ishmael are reconciling once again.""It's another historic day among many that the Trump administration has brought to this region."Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin thanked PM Netanyahu and the king of Bahrain “for their bold leadership, and for President Trump bringing this all together for this incredible day in this momentous time with the Abraham Accords and the peace treaty.”US envoy Avi Berkowitz added in Hebrew that he was "very excited to be in Israel to travel on El Al with the Israeli delegation and to return to Israel on Tuesday with the Emirati delegation."
After the official text is signed at a ceremony scheduled for Sunday evening, Israel and Bahrain will be free to open embassies in each other's countries. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates became the third and fourth Arab nations to sign a peace treaty with Israel in a ceremony at the White House in Washington DC earlier this month.

Top Palestinian Official Hospitalized in Israel after Contracting Virus
Agence France Presse/October 18/2020
Long-time chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat, diagnosed with coronavirus, was being hospitalized in Israel on Sunday after his condition worsened, the Palestine Liberation Organization and his brother said. The PLO said in a statement that "following his contraction of Covid-19, and due to the chronic health problems he faces in the respiratory system, Dr Erekat's condition now requires medical attention in a hospital.""His situation is not good," Saber Erekat told AFP, adding that his brother was being taken to the Rabin Medical Center in the Israeli city of Petah Tikva, outside Tel Aviv. Erekat underwent lung-transplant surgery in the United States in 2017.  The 65-year-old has been a key figure in Palestinian politics for decades, often serving as a main interlocutor for foreign envoys and the international media. He has consistently voiced support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Jerusalem-born Erekat serves as the PLO's secretary-general and remains a stalwart presence in the inner circle of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. There have been 42,490 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in the occupied West Bank, including 381 deaths.

Syria Denounces New EU Sanctions against 7 Ministers
Damascus, Brussels - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 18 October, 2020
Syria criticized the European Council for sanctioning seven ministers, who were recently appointed to the government, blaming them for playing a role in the continued violent crackdown on civilians. The government, formed in August, is the fifth since the beginning of the conflict in 2011. The prime minister, Hussein Arnous, was included on the sanctions list in 2014. With the recently added ministers, the Council’s recent decision brings the number of persons targeted by the EU measures to 280, along with 70 entities. The restrictive measures, which began in 2011, include a ban on oil imports, restrictions on some investments, and freeze of the Syrian Central Bank’s assets in the European Union. They also cover import and export restrictions on equipment and technology that could be used for internal repression and equipment and technology for the monitoring or interception of internet or telephone communications. The European Council imposed sanctions on the Syrian regime in December 2011 and reviews them annually. An official source of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Syria condemns the Council's statement on extending the sanctions imposed on institutions and individuals for an additional year under the pretext of developing and using chemical weapons. The statement, carried by the state news agency (SANA), said the decision is based on misleading information, and part of the ongoing campaign against the Syrian state, which the Council has resorted to since the beginning of the terrorist war on Syria. The source indicated that this statement affirms once again the Council's lack of credibility, and meets US’ unilateral coercive measures aiming to starve the Syrian people, undermine their steadfastness, and at the same time support armed terrorist groups, including their repeated use of chemical weapons against innocent civilians. Western countries and UN reports accused Damascus of being behind the chemical attacks on several occasions over the past years.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 18-19/2020

Trump has an opportunity to intervene in Nagorno-Karabakh
Raghida Dergham/The National/October 18/2020
The Russian President Vladimir Putin must be burdened these days by his predicament in Syria, where Turkey is stepping up its threats in Idlib, reflecting his rival Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ascendancy from Nagorno-Karabakh to Libya. Mr Putin appears to have few cards left to play. Mr Erdogan, well aware of this, is driving the blade deeper in the Russian side in its precious near-abroad doctrine.
Mr Putin needs US President Donald Trump’s help to rein in Mr Erdogan, particularly his insidious weapon of radical Islamic mercenaries prefected in Syria with his regional partners, as part of his neo-Ottoman revivalism.
If this weapon metastasizes in the Muslim republics surrounding Russia, including Chechnya, it could be very dangerous.
The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has expanded and claimed thousands of casualties, according to monitors.
Azerbaijan has also attacked Armenia, potentially giving Russia the right to activate a defence pact and enter the war alongside Armenia.
This would mean direct combat with Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey, which is exactly what Russia does not want: war with Turkey.
The situation is also potentially embarrassing to the US president, who is trying to steer clear of this conflict, but pressure from about 1.5 million Armenian-American voters in the US election could make this position costly.
Nagorno-Karabakh is not recognised as an independent state but Armenia has pushed for its independence.
Mr Erdogan has surrounded himself with a ring of hatred and animus towards his egomania and neo-Ottoman expansionism, but he doesn’t seem to be deterred by any of it. His bet is on European division and weakness, Russia’s tied hands, and the preoccupation of the US administration with the November 3 election but also on some kind of magic in his personal relations with Mr Trump.
Mr Erdogan’s calculation has made him conclude that no power wants war with his country – not Egypt, or Iran, or the EU, or Russia, or the US. But his arrogance and his use of mercenaries could expose him to blowback or accountability. He needs these foreign adventures to cover up his insurmountable domestic political and economic crises. But someone must remind him that today's calculations may not bear fruit tomorrow.
It will not be the hesitant Europeans. The US president must spare a minute to consider the dangerous developments in Nagorno-Karabakh, where there is little hope for a diplomatic solution as Turkey and Azerbaijan push for a military one, believing now is the last chance to accomplish it.
The US president must spare a minute to consider the dangerous developments in Nagorno-Karabakh
The eruption of the conflict recently there has taken on a new dimension.
There is military co-operation between Turkey and Israel alongside Azerbaijan in its campaign against Armenia, including supplying it with advanced drones.
It is remarkable that Israel and Turkey are co-ordinating militarily in Azerbaijan, when Mr Erdogan has deployed militias in a way that threatens Russia in the eastern Caucasus, and when Mr Putin has helped Mr Netanyahu immensely in securing Israel’s priorities in Syria, including the annexation of the Golan Heights. Mr Erdogan has sent mercenaries to Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus with a view to revive his Muslim Brotherhood project, previously endorsed by the Obama administration in the name of 'moderate Islamism'.
The Trump administration must not fall into the trap of such labels, and must act to rein in Mr Erdogan’s dangerous project, even if it doesn’t want to extend direct help to Russia in Libya or the Caucasus.
Indeed, investing in Mr Erdogan’s project means investing in the revival of the splinter cells of ISIS and Al Qaeda. Mr Trump must awaken to his danger and act decisively.
The Trump administration must pressure his partners in Nato to also adopt a strict position against Turkey, which has disregarded the interests of its allies in the organisation, and work collectively with the transatlantic allies to overcome European divisions.
Regarding Russia, while America has understandable doubts about Russia’s strategic objectives in Syria, Libya and Europe, there is room for dialogue on the Caucasus to contain the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, given the wide-ranging dangerous implications.
Mr Erdogan’s projects must be of concern to Mr Trump, not just Mr Putin. While a Turkish quest to counterbalance Russia in the Caucasus may be logical in terms of grand strategies, the attempt to impose new facts on the ground using radical mercenaries poses a serious threat to security in that region and the whole world. This may be an opportunity for Mr Trump, with Russia drawn into a quagmire in Syria, and in need of America’s assistance to curb Mr Erdogan’s projects. It is also an important moment for Mr Trump to rein in the military appetites of Turkey, Azerbaijan and put pressure on Armenia before the situation becomes uncontainable.
-Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute

France: Death to Free Speech
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/October 18/2020
Paris, October 16. A history teacher who had shown his students cartoons of the Islamic Prophet Muhammad and had spoken with them about and freedom of speech was beheaded ....
[A different] attack shows that declaring oneself an "unaccompanied minor" in France can be sufficient not to be observed at all and all the same to receive full assistance from the government. The attack also suggests a disappointing grade for gratitude.
Any criticism of Islam in France can lead to legal action. The French mainstream media, threatened with prosecution by their own government, have evidently decided no longer to invite on air anyone likely to make comments that could lead to convictions or complaints. [The author Éric] Zemmour might still appear on television, but the increasingly heavy fines imposed on him are aimed at silencing him and potentially punishing stations that invite him.
"Strengthening the teaching of Arabic will simply help to nourish 'cultural replacement'". — Jean Messiha, senior civil servant and member of the National Rally party.
Commenting on a news report that stated, "The trial has sparked protests across France, with thousands of demonstrators rallying against Charlie Hebdo and the French government," the American attorney and commentator, John Hinderaker, wrote: "When thousands demonstrate against the prosecution of alleged murderers, you know you have a problem."
On October 16, a history teacher who had shown his students cartoons of the Islamic Prophet Muhammad was beheaded in a Paris suburb. The murderer, who tried to attack the police attempting to arrest him, was shot and killed while shouting "Allahu Akbar". Pictured: Police officers stand guard near the site where the teacher's murderer was killed.
Paris, October 16. A history teacher who had shown his students cartoons of the Islamic Prophet Muhammad and had spoken with them about freedom of speech was beheaded in Conflans-Sainte-Honorine, a small town in the suburbs of Paris. The murderer, who tried to attack the police attempting to arrest him, was shot and killed while shouting "Allahu Akbar". According to the public prosecutor, he was a family member of one of the students. The facts are still unfolding....
A few weeks before that, on September 25, Zaheer Hassan Mehmood, a 25-year-old Pakistani man, attacked and seriously injured two people with a cleaver. When he tried to escape, he was arrested by police. He had entered France illegally in 2018, had appeared before a judge to ask for asylum and to benefit from the status of an "isolated minor". The information he gave the judge was false: he had said he was 18 years old. The judge accepted his request and refused any method of determining his real age. Since then, Mehmood has been financially supported by the French government. It gave him housing, training and a monthly allowance.
Just before the attack, Mehmood posted a video on a social network in which he tried to justify his act. He wanted, he said, to kill people working for the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo because it had republished the cartoons that had triggered the murderous attack on the magazine in January 2015. He wanted, he said, to avenge the offense done to the Prophet Muhammad. He stated his allegiance to Ilyas Qadri, founder of Dawat-e-Islami, a Sufi movement that claims to condemn violence, even though its members have nevertheless murdered people they accused of blasphemy.
In September, Mehmood had gone to the magazine's old address. The people he injured were not working for Charlie Hebdo, which had long since moved, but for a documentary production company. They are now disfigured for the rest of their lives.
The attack sadly shows that criticizing Islam is still an extremely dangerous activity. Anyone even suspected of doing it can be injured or killed, anytime, anywhere. It also shows that one can decide to attack or become a murderer even if one does not belong to an organization defined as jihadist, or shown no signs of radicalization. The attack once again confirms the existence of what Daniel Pipes has called "sudden jihad syndrome".
The attack shows that, in addition, France, like other Western countries, is abysmally lax in guiding those who are arriving on its soil and asking for its help. A man can lie about his age and identity without their being detected and without tighter controls. The attack shows that declaring oneself an "isolated minor" in France can be sufficient not to be observed at all and still receive full assistance from the government. The attack also suggests a disappointing grade for gratitude.
Logic would require that a defense of freedom of expression be immediately and unanimously affirmed; that the government call for vigilance in the face of extremist danger, which seems to be persistent, and that more stringent controls on those who apply for asylum be set up. None of those improvements has taken place.
On September 23, two days before Mehmood's attack, an article purporting to defend freedom of speech was published in France by 90 newspapers. The article said that "women and men of our country have been murdered by fanatics, because of their opinions... we must join forces," it added, "to drive away fear and make our indestructible love of freedom triumph". The article seemed deliberately vague. It did not mention who the murderers were or what might have motivated them.
The day after the attack, several commentators counseled that in France, the love of freedom was not indestructible. They prescribed self-censorship and ventured -- unfortunately "blaming the victim" -- that those who had decided to republish the cartoons were the ones responsible for the attack. "When you repost cartoons", Anne Giudicelli, a journalist, said on television, "you play into the hands of these organizations. By not saying certain things, you reduce the risks."
"When you shock a person", TV host Cyril Hanouna ventured, "you have to stop. Charlie Hebdo drawings pour oil on the fire".
The persistence of Islamic danger was not mentioned, except by the journalist Éric Zemmour. Ironically, on the day of the attack, Zemmour was sentenced to a heavy fine (10,000 euros, nearly $12,000) for remarks on Islam in September 2019. He had said at the time that "Muslim foreign enclaves" exist in France. They do. At least 750 of them. He also noted that attacks in the name of Islam have not disappeared and seem likely to increase. The French justice system decided to regard these words as "incitement to hatred".
After the cleaver attack, no one requested tightening controls on asylum seekers, except, again, Zemmour. He said that "the uncontrolled presence of unaccompanied minors on the French territory is a very serious problem" and that "we must no longer welcome unaccompanied minors in France as long as drastic controls are not put in place". He recalled that many self-proclaimed unaccompanied minors lie about their age, commit crimes, and turn out to be "thieves and assassins".
His words immediately caused a massive scandal. Even though he did not say a single word about race or religion, dozens of complaints were lodged against him by "anti-racist associations", and the French Ministry of Justice robotically opened another investigation against him for "incitement to racial hatred" and "Islamophobic prejudice". He will most likely again be condemned by the courts.
Facts, however, prove Zemmour is right. The National Observatory of Delinquency and Penal Responses (ONDRP), an organization that analyzes crime in France, recently published reports noting that 60% of assaults, murders and violent robberies committed in France in 2019 were indeed committed by "unaccompanied minors". ONDPR published still another study, disclosing that, on average, 120 knife attacks per day occur in France and that those attacks are committed by "unaccompanied minors" or "refugees" coming from the Muslim world.
In addition, France's Directorate-General for Internal Security (DGSI) reported a few weeks ago, that, since January 2015, 59 Islamist attacks have been thwarted in France. Those, of course, not thwarted include the attack against Charlie Hebdo; the murders the same day in a kosher supermarket; a mass murder in the Bataclan Theater; the murder of Arnaud Beltrame, who took a bullet to shield others; the murders of Fr. Jacques Hamel; of schoolchildren and others in Toulouse, of elderly Jews in Paris, and of at least 84 people watching fireworks in Nice. These attacks were all committed by French Muslims or Muslims legally present in France.
French laws currently make it possible to prosecute just about anything regarded as "incitement to discrimination, hatred or violence against a person or a group of people because of their origin or their belonging to an ethnic group, a nation, a race or a religion." An openly Marxist organization of judges, the Judiciary Union (Syndicat de la magistrature), has steadily gained influence and uses applicable laws to suppress any criticism of either Islam or immigration. They work together with organizations such as SOS Racism, founded in 1984 by members to the left of the Socialist Party; the Movement against Racism and for Friendship between Peoples (MRAP), created in 1949 by members of the French Communist Party (the MRAP was initially called Movement Against Racism, anti-Semitism and for Peace, and removed "anti-Semitism and for Peace" from its name in 1989, when it devoted itself almost entirely to the fight "Islamophobic racism"); the Collective Against Islamophobia in France (CCIF), created in 2003 by members of the Union of Islamic Organizations of France (UOIF), the French branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, and Coordination Against Racism and Islamophobia (CRI), created in 2009.
Any criticism of Islam in France can lead to legal action. The French mainstream media, threatened with prosecution by their own government, have evidently decided no longer to invite on air anyone likely to make comments that could lead to convictions or complaints. Zemmour might still appear on television, but the increasingly heavy fines imposed on him are aimed at silencing him and potentially punishing stations that invite him.
No French political leader dares to say what he says, not even Marine Le Pen. She has been condemned several times by the French judicial system, and, as in the former Soviet Union, ordered to undergo a psychiatric evaluation for having shown the public what ISIS was doing to "disbelievers". She has evidently now decided to be "careful".
The French authorities continue to ignore most of the violent attacks committed in the name of Islam. When they occurred -- against a Jewish school in Toulouse in 2012, or against Charlie Hebdo and a kosher supermarket 2015, or at the Bataclan Theater in 2015, or by the truck-ramming in Nice in 2016 -- the country's leaders promised "firmness" but delivered nothing.
A week after the September 25 attack, French President Emmanuel Macron again delivered a speech that pledged "firmness". He denounced "Islamic separatism" and the "Islamic indoctrination" practiced by radical preachers. He said he would fight terrorism and "liberate French Islam from foreign influences" and that in French schools and universities, he would "strengthen the teaching of Islamic civilization" and "teaching the Arabic language". He said nothing that he has not said before. Seven months ago, on February 18, he gave almost the identical speech in Alsace.
Ibrahim Mounir, spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood in Europe, nevertheless accused Macron of "hurting the feelings of more than two billion Muslims" and of "acting deliberately to incite Muslims to renounce their religion". He added: "The beliefs of the Muslim Brotherhood have always been able to overcome the mistakes of regimes using illegal and inhuman abuses to distort our religion". Manon Aubry, MEP from the leftist party Rebellious France, commented that "Macron obsessively wants to stigmatize Muslims".
Marine Le Pen, head of the National Rally Party, said that "Macron omitted certain subjects, probably deliberately: he said nothing on terrorism, and nothing on immigration". She added that "massive immigration is the breeding ground of communitarianism [empowering groups rather than individuals], which itself is the breeding ground of Islamist fundamentalism".
The journalist Celine Pina noted that Macron did not speak about the status of asylum seekers. "Once again," she wrote, "Macron refuses really to tackle the causes of the problems that the French suffer. The government fights terrorism by pretending not to see the link between the propaganda of political Islam and the proliferation of violent acts".
Columnist Ivan Rioufol wrote that "the measures Macron is advocating do not respond at all to the urgency of the threat."
Jean Messiha, a senior civil servant of Coptic Christian origin and member of the National Rally party, noted that "Islam does not seek to separate but to conquer". He added that "speaking of an Islam of France dissociated from Islam itself does not make any sense". As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan correctly noted, "There is no extremist Islam or moderate Islam; Islam is Islam and that's it".
Messiha also suggested that "strengthening the teaching of Islamic civilization is not a priority at a moment when so many young French people no longer know what French civilization is", and that "strengthening the teaching of Arabic will simply help to nourish 'cultural replacement'".
France is now the European country with the largest Muslim population (around six million, or nearly 10% of the total population); each year, moreover, thousand more people from the Muslim world arrive in France. Most of the Muslims living in France today reside in Muslim neighborhoods from which most non-Muslims have fled.
A 2016 study showed that 29% of Muslims living in France believe that Islamic law is superior to French law, and that they must first and foremost obey the laws of Islam. A recent study shows that four years later, the situation has only worsened. Now, 40% of Muslims living in France believe that Islamic law is superior to French law. Eighteen percent of French Muslims also apparently think that the deadly attack on Charlie Hebdo in 2015 was justified. Among Muslims between the ages of 18- 25, that number rises to 26%.
Studies show that if migratory flows continue at the current pace, France could become a Muslim-majority country within 30 to 40 years. Other European countries are moving in the same direction; their leaders are behaving no more courageously than French leaders are. Censorship against anti-Islamic statements is increasing rapidly across the continent.
Abdelaziz Chaambi, director of the group Coordination Against Racism and Islamophobia, recently said that "the data shows that France will be Muslim in a few decades... Islam is the second religion, the second community in France, and those who do not like Muslims have to leave France".
At the end of the speech that earned Zemmour his September 25 court sentence, he told the French, "You are right to be afraid".
A trial is now underway in Paris for those who attacked Charlie Hebdo and the kosher supermarket in 2015. The trial, however, is largely meaningless. All the terrorists are dead. The defendants are simply people who provided weapons or shelter to the terrorists. It is easy for them to say they did not know whom they were hosting or for what the weapons were intended. They have even said that they do not know anything about jihad.
Commenting on a news report that stated, "The trial has sparked protests across France, with thousands of demonstrators rallying against Charlie Hebdo and the French government," the American attorney and commentator, John Hinderaker, wrote: "When thousands demonstrate against the prosecution of alleged murderers, you know you have a problem."
On October 9, Macron announced that he had secured the release of a woman held hostage by a jihadist group in Mali. The release was obtained in exchange for a ransom of $12 million and the freeing of 200 jihadists ready to return to combat against the French military. The hostage, Sophie Petronin, a 75-year-old aid worker, said she converted to Islam, that her name is now Myriam, and that she wants to quickly go back to Mali to live among jihadists. She said she understands why the jihadists fight the French army. France is officially at war with the jihadists in Mali. Macron, it seems, has an oddball, idiosyncratic way of waging war.
This is not the first time that France has paid a ransom -- a practice many countries emphatically reject because it only invites more hostage-taking. Between 2008-2014, to free hostages, France has paid $58 million, more than any other country. Where does one sign up?
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27 books on France and Europe.
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Is France ready to defeat those who beheaded a teacher?

Giulio Meotti/Arutz Sheva/October 18/2020
France, and this is the sad truth, is perhaps not recoverable. It's too late. Metastasis is not curable.
He had a beautiful face and a beautiful name, Samuel Paty.
A name and a face destroyed and cut off, literally, by an Islamist of Chechen origin, one of those that France has cultivated within its borders.
A high school teacher who believed in freedom, justice, equality and brotherhood and who died when a community of Islamic lunatics lay in ambush to behead him.
One moment. Crazy people? Lunatics? No, barbarian warriors who fulfill the great Quranic mandate to fight the infidels wherever they are, In Gaza as in Marseille, in London as in Oslo.
One day they attacked the Jews. Okay, they were "only" Jews ... Then they killed the cartoonists. Okay, they were "only" cartoonists, and even provocateurs....
One day they attacked the Jews. Okay, they were "only" Jews ... Then they killed the cartoonists. Okay, they were "only" cartoonists, and even provocateurs. Then they hit a priest in a small church in Normandy, cutting his throat. OK, he was “only" an old priest in a country that is no longer Christian, at a mass where there were only a handful of old women. Then they hit everyone, en masse: tourists, young people dancing, people celebrating July 14 ... Then they hit inside the Paris Police headquarters.
Now they strike in the more common, open, ordinary side of the French Republic: an anonymous teacher, a father of a family, who wanted to teach his students about freedom of expression.
Which teacher will now want to explain about the Crusades, the Shoah, Israel, colonialism, the Judeo-Christian roots of Europe, freedom of speech, to their students?
The errorists are winning, step by step.
France, and this is the sad truth, is perhaps not recoverable. It's too late. Metastasis is not curable.
Emmanuel Macron gave an important speech, he went in front of the school, he used harsh words, he is preparing a law against "Islamic separatism". But is the French state really ready to defeat these enemies? And then, how many are there, out of an Islamic population of 6 million -. 6 million? Some say 9 million, because in France you can't even know how many there are anymore.
Where do they nest? How many mosques should they close? How many people should they track, as if they are fighting an ideological Covid?
Perhaps France, and this is another sad truth, would be recoverable only by setting in motion a trial of its largest minority; driving out hundreds of radical imams; stopping foreign Islamic funds and banning the dignitaries of Middle Eastern regimes who set foot there and donate their money for mosques and Islamization; by ordering the army to enter the suburbs and clear out the Salafite cells. There is a shadow army that has 20,000 Frenchmen under the surveillance of its counter-terrorism units.
Can a Western democracy, which no longer believes in itself, which only believes in bistros and shopping, really win such a war?
*Giulio Meotti is, an Italian journalist with Il Foglio, writes a twice-weekly column for Arutz Sheva. He is the author, in English, of the book "A New Shoah", that researched the personal stories of Israel's terror victims, published by Encounter and of "J'Accuse: the Vatican Against Israel" published by Mantua Books, in addition to books in Italian. His writing has appeared in publications, such as the Wall Street Journal, Gatestone, Frontpage and Commentary

For Republicans, Amy Coney Barrett's confirmation will reign supreme
Hussein Ibish/The National/October 18/2020
Although the hearings weren’t remotely interesting, the most consequential development in Washington these days is the confirmation process for Judge Amy Coney Barrett, nominated to replace the late liberal hero Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the US Supreme Court. As President Donald Trump inches closer to possible defeat in the November 3 election, the Republican party finds itself poised for a massive generational victory, finally securing a solid 6-3 conservative majority on the high court.
This apparently unstoppable Senate confirmation realises a project that began in the 1970s. Outraged by 20 years of judicial hammer blows – beginning with Brown versus Board of Education, which effectively prohibited racial segregation in 1954, and culminating with Roe versus Wade’s guarantee of abortion and privacy rights in 1973 – conservatives sought a right-wing court majority.
The gold standard for conservatives was Ms Barrett's mentor, the late justice Antonin Scalia, but she seems even more right-wing.
For example, Scalia, an ardent opponent of gun control, allowed that, perhaps, the government can bar convicted felons from owning weapons. Not so, says Ms Barrett. Gun ownership rights are so fundamental that the government must prove a significant, imminent public danger in every case. That puts her on the most extreme wing of an already extremely pro-gun constituency. Both political parties are guilty of putting up nominees who refuse to discuss anything substantial on the ridiculous grounds that it might somehow compromise their independence. So, like all her recent predecessors, Ms Barrett declined any meaningful colloquy. She refused to opine on whether the President could delay the election (he can't), or whether it is unlawful to intimidate voters (it is). If asked whether the sky looks blue, she would have probably cited the need to hear arguments and research relevant litigation before commenting.
But the Senators were little better.
Timorous Democrats avoided any mention of Ms Barrett's membership in a religious group that emphasises male supremacy, speaking in tongues, prophesying and other potentially relevant beliefs. Much as Mr Trump is counterfactually calling the moderate Mr Biden a "socialist", Senate Republicans denounced Democrats for attacking her faith though they never mentioned it.
All Senators burbled tinned speeches, generally totally unconnected to constitutional law.
It's a pity, because Ms Barrett is a champion of "Originalism", a specious doctrine central to the programmatic conservative legal agenda. She said that it means: “I interpret the Constitution as a law, I understand it to have the meaning that it had at the time people ratified it.” That’s plainly convenient for the political right. But it is absurd. It assumes there is a fixed or identifiable “public meaning" that is somehow defined during the ratification process (although by whom, precisely, and how, exactly, is undefined or contested) when obviously there almost never is. Clearly, even when different people agree on the same language, they typically have radically different motivations and understandings of what they want it to mean.
Moreover, such legal "Originalists" usually ignore historians, as if only their own legal scholarship provides a genuine grasp of mindsets from the distant past. Common sense and bitter experience strongly suggest otherwise.
It’s also unlikely that the “original” constitutional understandings of 1787 survived the post-Civil War reconstruction and amendments from 1866-1877 that, as president Abraham Lincoln vowed, redefined the country, enshrined equality for all citizens and made the federal government – and not the states – the guarantor of that equality.
Democrats didn't engage any of this, presumably because there aren't many votes in methodology. But there are in health care, so Democrats insisted she is being rushed through for a case against the popular Obamacare health insurance law scheduled for arguments on November 10. But that case is so ridiculous that she and a majority will probably reject it.
Instead, Democrats should have emphasised what Mr Trump openly says he wants from Ms Barrett: support in rulings immediately after the election to affect the outcome. If Mr Trump tries to use courts as the primary means to stay in power despite the voters, Democrats may regret not having highlighted it and pressed her more strongly to recuse herself from any 2020 election issues, as would be ethical.
In the long run, all eyes will be on the Roe ruling, which she has strongly denounced, and a set of potential coming liberal reforms.
Washington may soon find itself reliving the 1930s, where a leftover, pre-Depression, ultra-conservative Supreme Court majority consistently blocked president Franklin Roosevelt's economic restructuring until he threatened to expand its membership. Both sides ultimately backed down.
The potential for revisited "court packing" is the one campaign issue that Democratic nominee Joe Biden has severely mishandled. While "let's see if she gets confirmed" would have sufficed, he has been repeating: “I'll tell you my policy after the election" – a mystifyingly clumsy position.
Republicans are focused on controlling courts not only because they remember the liberal gains accrued between the 1950s through the 70s, but also because that’s the least democratic and accountable branch of government. That is bound to appeal to the party mainly of white, non-college-educated, and non-urban Americans, a constituency that is transitioning from being a solid majority to much greater potential vulnerability.
Democrats already see several of the Supreme Court's conservative justices as illegitimate.
There is a much stronger case today against Clarence Thomas than in 1991, when a former subordinate named Anita Hill stood alone accusing him of improprieties during his confirmation hearing. Many believe Brett Kavanaugh similarly perjured himself. Neil Gorsuch is only on the bench because Republicans blocked Barack Obama's nominee, Merrick Garland, claiming that it would be “improper” given a mere 10 months left in the president’s term. Now Ms Barrett's nomination is being rammed through while voting is already under way. And all of it is being done by a President and Senate majority elected without majority support.
What the Barrett hearings suggest is that a huge American train wreck over the Supreme Court, and other federal appellate courts, is likely if – as many suspect – Democrats consolidate elected executive and legislative authority in coming years.
If Ms Barrett enters the arena of power as Mr Trump exits it, perhaps even bringing down the Republican Senate majority down with him, she and her conservative colleagues on the Supreme Court may be the most politically powerful and relevant Republicans in Washington for many years.
**Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States ­Institute and a US affairs columnist for The National

Indicators point to imminent new uprising in Iran
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 18/2020
د.مجيد رافيزادا: مؤشرات إلى حدوث انتفاضة جديدة وشيكة في إيران
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/91435/dr-majid-rafizadeh-indicators-point-to-imminent-new-uprising-in-iran-%d8%af-%d9%85%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%a7-%d9%85%d8%a4%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a5/

All the social, political and economic indicators in Iran point to the likelihood of another major uprising and looming protests.
One of the most important parameters is the economy, particularly how it is affecting people’s living standards. Economically speaking, life has become unbearable for many ordinary people in Iran. Unemployment and inflation are at or near record highs and the cost of living continues to rise.
The Islamic Parliament Research Center in June reported that the poverty-line income for a four-member household in Iran has, over the last two years, increased from 25 million rials a month to 45 million, while the International Monetary Fund predicts that inflation will be 34.2 percent this year.
While many people’s wages have remained unchanged, the value of the Iranian currency has significantly decreased. The rial has lost about 56 percent of its value so far in 2020, making it one of the least valuable national currencies in the world. As of last week, the rial was trading on unofficial markets at 304,300 to the US dollar. Throughout the last two years, the currency has plummeted in value. As a result, the Iranian authorities in May agreed to remove four zeros from the currency. The falling value of the rial has inevitably increased demand for US dollars and gold.
Even Iran’s state-controlled Persian newspapers have begun warning the regime. For example, the Arman daily last month wrote: “A glance at what we witnessed in forms of protests in recent years shows that these protests started in areas where people are suffering from poverty and have difficulties earning their living wages. The economic pressure that lower social classes endure is unbearable. We should be careful that they do not lose their tolerance because this could have social and security consequences (for the state).”
The underlying factors behind Tehran’s economic crises are ingrained in its political and financial institutions.
The regime itself is also encountering one of the worst economic years in its four-decade rule, partly due to US sanctions and the decline in oil exports they have enforced. The situation is most likely to get worse. Although the other permanent members of the UN Security Council in August opposed a US bid to impose further pressure on the Iranian regime by triggering snapback sanctions, this move nevertheless put further pressure on Tehran.
Prominent cleric Saeed Lavasani, the head of Friday prayers in Lavasan, acknowledged the negative impact of the US move: “Activation of the trigger mechanism means the defeat and complete death of the (nuclear deal), which means the path that we went for seven years and put all the facilities of the nation on it, now we must return that way. The mechanism of the Security Council is such that it allows the United States to take such an action, which, although China and Russia have formally opposed it, implicitly acknowledges that a new legal challenge is emerging in the Security Council that will lead to long discussions. Of course, it is not in our interest.”
However, it is important to point out that Iran’s soaring inflation and crumbling economy has not only been caused by US sanctions, as some policy analysts, scholars and politicians suggest. The underlying factors are ingrained in Tehran’s political and financial institutions, which are the country’s backbone. In other words, it is the widespread corruption within the theocratic establishment and across the political spectrum; the mismanagement of the economy by the leadership; embezzlement and money laundering within the banking system; and the hemorrhaging of the nation’s wealth on militias, terror groups and proxies across the region that are the major factors contributing to the crisis.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its affiliates, the Office of the Supreme Leader, and the regime’s cronies are also responsible because they control considerable parts of the economy and financial systems. The IRGC controls about half of Iran’s gross domestic and owns several major economic powerhouses and religious endowments, such as Astan Quds Razavi in the northeastern city of Mashhad.
In addition to the dire economic situation many ordinary people are facing, the regime’s social and political suppression is adding to their fury. Human rights violations, arrests, torture, executions, imprisonments, and the suppression of the freedoms of speech and expression are at record highs. The Ebtekar newspaper even wrote a warning message to the politicians and clergy last month: “The social and national challenges have become so diverse and massive that any justification or trick can no longer conceal them. There is an inefficiency (lack of ambiguous plans and goals) of macro-management, which is the bedrock of all kinds of social and national challenges without prospects. Thus, we could safely say that a ‘fundamental national issue or concern’ in no way matters for politicians, officials, clergymen, and those seeking power.”
In summary, life has become unbearable for many people in Iran. The sociopolitical, religious and economic landscapes suggest that a major widespread uprising will most likely hit the theocratic establishment soon.
* Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Ahwazi Arabs need world’s help to win their rights
Maria Maalouf/Arab News/October 18/2020
The Iranian regime is trying to subjugate the 5 million people of the Khuzestan Province, which is within the country's borders.
Khuzestan, which is one of the 31 provinces of Iran and is 63,000 square km in size, is part of the ancient history of the Near East civilizations. Its name means “land of the Khuz,” in reference to the indigenous population of the region. The Islamic conquest of Khuzestan occurred in the year 639, commanded by Abu Musa Al-Ash’ari from Basra, who drove the Persians out. During the time of the shahs, the central government in Tehran was engaged in a low-intensity conflict with the inhabitants of Khuzestan. Currently, most of its people are Ahwazi Arabs, predominantly Shiite Muslims.
There are many political groups inside the province. They have articulated many demands and some of their pleas have reached the Arab League. Their complaints center on the denial of their rights by the regime in Iran, which is manifested in the confiscation of their land and the reduction of the size of their territory. The government forbids the teaching of the Arabic language and the celebration of many Islamic feasts. Its policies aim to eradicate the Arab identity of the people.
There is stark discrimination in the treatment of the Arabs compared to the Persians living in Khuzestan, as the Arab population suffers from a lack of adequate basic services. Most, if not all, of the projects Iran initiated in Khuzestan have been total failures, leading to serious economic depression and an increase in poverty. Tehran exploits the province’s natural resources, especially its oil, with no economic returns to its population.
Citizens’ health has widely deteriorated as Iran uses the province as a dumping ground, causing an environmental catastrophe. The agony of the people of Khuzestan is exacerbated by the government launching constant arrest campaigns, with summary executions often implemented.
The Iranian regime’s policies aim to eradicate the Arab identity of the people.
Unfortunately, a number of Ahwazi leaders have been detained by the authorities in Europe. They are members of the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahwaz and include Habib Jaber, the leader of the movement, his brother Nasser, and media office chief Yaqoub Hor Altostari, who were all arrested in Denmark in February. Also detained in the Netherlands was Issa Al-Fakher, an Ahwazna TV host. The police in Denmark revealed that, in 2018, an Iranian death squad had been sent to assassinate Habib Jaber.
The world appears to be waking up to the notion that the atrocities of the Iranian regime perpetrated against the Ahwazi people should be recorded and denounced. The US no longer continues with the complacency over the persecution of the Ahwazis that was adopted by the Obama administration. For example, a recent report on Iran’s illegal activities issued by the Department of State mentioned the role of Iran’s militias in spreading terror, its financial irregularities that fund terror groups and undermine the stability of global monetary transactions, and its serious violations of human rights, including the use of arbitrary arrests, torture, and killings.
There are those in the Arab world who always boast of their calls for the liberation of Palestine. Yet, here lies the irony and the paradox. Those who want to help the Palestinians should also be considerate of the Arabs of Iran, who face the most vicious regime in our contemporary world.
The whole world should be aware of the fact that the Iranian regime survives thanks to the repressive policies it has been adopting since it came to power in 1979. It is not a stable regime and will fall soon. It is obvious that, as the ruling regime’s end nears, it becomes more barbaric. The world should no longer remain silent on the crimes of the Iranian government against the Ahwazi people.
While we salute their struggle and sacrifices toward their ultimate liberation from the bloody grip of the Iranian regime, we call on the governments of the free world to stand by the Ahwazi people. It is high time the UN and its human rights organs, along with the EU, monitored the aggression of Iran against the human rights of all its people, especially the Arabs of Khuzestan. There must be an accurate documentation of all the abuses Iran has been committing against the inhabitants of Khuzestan.
This should give rise to a face-off between the EU and the government in Iran, with Europe compelling the regime to change its policies toward the Ahwazis and to give these people their rights. Such an effort should be cognizant of the fact that, since November last year, there has been a series of protests against the government by Ahwazi Arabs in Khuzestan. Shamefully, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was deployed to one of the protests and fired against the peaceful demonstrators, killing many of them in what came to be known as the “Massacre of Mahshahr.” There has to be an international investigation into this crime. The restlessness of the Ahwazi people will never stop unless they are fully liberated from the Iranian occupation of their land. Hopefully, what would then follow would be the freeing of the four Arab countries that have been condemned to the tyranny of an Iranian presence on their lands.
* Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher and writer. She holds an MA in political sociology from the University of Lyon. Twitter: @bilarakib

Greece, Turkey cannot rely on EU to resolve crisis
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/October 18/2020
The respite in tensions between Greece and Turkey as a result of Ankara’s withdrawal of its seismic survey ship Oruc Reis from contested areas in the eastern Mediterranean for “maintenance purposes” has proved to be short-lived.
Upon the suggestion of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last month made a gesture by withdrawing the ship from the area Ankara believes is part of its exclusive economic zone. He expected that this gesture would be reciprocated with a positive step from the EU.
However, the conclusions of the special EU summit of Oct. 1-2 did little to meet these expectations. It started with a positive narrative, but turned into harsher language and concluded with a threatening tone. The EU repeated the same attitude after the summit it held last Friday and could not refrain itself from again scolding Turkey. French President Emmanuel Macron said the European leaders had reaffirmed their support for Greece and Cyprus.
While the EU maintains this attitude, Ankara, on the other hand, is too slow to grasp the full extent of an important EU principle that requires it to act as a bloc on all issues that oppose any member’s interests when they clash with those of a non-EU country.
One may presume that Greece’s claims may have been contradicted by other EU members in the closed meetings, but experts in international relations would admit that, in a dispute where one of the parties is not represented, the bias tilts in favor of the party that is present, irrespective of how neutral this forum wishes to be.
In a dispute where one of the parties is not represented, the bias tilts in favor of the party that is present.
As a political leader who is not averse to taking risks, Erdogan last week decided to send the Oruc Reis to resume its mission. Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez has said about 10 km of seismic survey cables have already been laid on the seabed, which means that, after having lost hope of a meaningful dialogue with the EU, Turkey has decided to turn a deaf ear to what the bloc has to say and go its own way instead.
Despite this attitude, one has to admit that Ankara weighs up the pros and cons of such operations with scientific accuracy. The most recent NAVTEX it issued was drafted with meticulous care. It covers an area south of Kastellorizo, a tiny Greek island that is only 1 nautical mile from the Turkish coast. The maritime area covered by the NAVTEX stops at a point half a mile from the outer limit of Kastellorizo’s territorial waters.
This meticulous calculation is not without reason. The Greek parliament adopted in 1995 a resolution authorizing the government to extend the breadth of its territorial waters to 12 miles — as allowed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The Turkish parliament reciprocated immediately by authorizing its government to declare casus belli (just cause for war) if the Greek government put this decision into action. Ankara did so because, if Greece did extend the breadth of its territorial waters to 12 miles, Turkey’s Aegean coast would become almost land-locked.
Realistic people in Greece are aware of the Turks’ unease because many Greek islands are only a few miles away from mainland Turkey. Late Greek President Konstantinos Karamanlis has been quoted by the composer Mikis Theodorakis as having said: “Turks feel as we would if Salamis and Aegina (two small Greek islands in the Saronic Gulf close to Athens) were Turkish islands. I believe that we must comprehend the suffocation of Turkey and discuss lucidly here a realistic solution.” One can only wish such wisdom was upheld by more politicians in Greece.
The NAVTEX Turkey announced last week is due to remain in force until Thursday. The maritime area it covers comes as close as 6.5 miles to Kastellorizo, sending the message to Greece that the decision of casus belli is still valid. Greece, in turn, announced a counter-NAVTEX covering maritime areas that overlap with Turkey’s. The difference in the Greek message is that it covers a longer period, lasting beyond Oct. 29. This practice is at odds with a tacit agreement between the two governments not to announce a NAVTEX covering any national holidays. Oct. 29 is the anniversary of the proclamation of the Turkish Republic, and thus a national holiday.
In light of the gradually melting leverage of the EU over Turkey, if Turkish-Greek relations are to be put back on track, it will have to be done by the two countries themselves without counting on third-party involvement. In case a fair deal can be worked out, Erdogan has the means of selling it to his electorate. Whether the Greek political leaders could do the same is up to them to judge.
* Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar

The time bomb at the top of the world
Durwood Zaelke and Mario Molina/Arab News/October 18/2020
It is hard to imagine any more devastating effects of climate change than the fires that have been raging in California, Oregon and Washington, or the procession of hurricanes that have approached — and, at times, ravaged — the US’ Gulf Coast. There have also been deadly heat waves in Pakistan and Europe, and devastating flooding in Southeast Asia. But there is far worse ahead, with one risk in particular so great that it alone threatens humanity itself: The rapid depletion of Arctic sea ice.
Recalling an Alfred Hitchcock movie, this climate “bomb” — which could more than double the rate of global warming — has a timer that is being watched with growing anxiety. Each September, the extent of Arctic sea ice reaches its lowest level before the lengthening darkness and falling temperatures cause it to begin to expand again. At this point, scientists compare its extent to previous years.
The results should frighten us all. This year, measurements from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, show that there is less ice in the middle of the Arctic than ever before, while just-published research shows that winter sea ice in the Arctic’s Bering Sea hit its lowest level in 5,500 years in 2018 and 2019.
Over the entire Arctic, sea ice reached its second-lowest extent ever on Sept. 15. Amounts vary from year to year, but the trend is inexorably downward: The 14 Septembers with the least sea ice have all been in the last 14 years.
But sea ice is not only covering a smaller area; it is also thinner than ever. The oldest sea ice (more than four years old), which is more resistant to melting, now comprises less than 1 percent of all sea ice cover. First-year ice now dominates, leaving the sea cover more fragile and quicker to melt. Scientists now think the Arctic Ocean could be almost ice-free in late summer within a decade or two.
The effects would be catastrophic. In the extreme scenario, which could happen within decades, loss of all ice during the entirety of the sunlit months would produce global radiative heating equivalent to adding 1 trillion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. To put this into perspective, in the 270 years since the Industrial Revolution began, 2.4 trillion tons of carbon dioxide have been added to the atmosphere. About 30 percent of the Arctic warming has already been added to the climate because of the ice lost between 1979 and 2016, and more warming follows quickly as more of the remaining ice is lost.
This extreme scenario would drive climate change forward by 25 years, and it is hardly far-fetched. Just last month, a block of ice about twice the size of Manhattan broke off from the largest remaining Arctic ice shelf, in Northeast Greenland, after record summer temperatures.
Meanwhile, on land, the Greenland ice sheet is also in peril. With Arctic warming occurring at least twice as fast as average global warming, Greenland’s rate of melting has at least tripled over the last two decades. It is believed that this will become irreversible in a decade or even sooner. Eventually, this melting will cause sea levels to rise by up to 7 meters, drowning coastal cities, though this peak will most likely not be reached for hundreds of years.
Urgent action is needed to mitigate the tremendous — even existential — risks humanity is facing.
Compounding the problem of accelerating Arctic warming is the self-reinforcing feedback risk of permafrost thawing. With about twice as much carbon locked away in permafrost as is already in the atmosphere, releasing even some of it could be disastrous. Permafrost thawing would also release even more potent greenhouse gases: Nitrous oxide and methane. As global temperatures rise, it is also possible that even more methane could be emitted from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf’s shallow seabed.
Clearly, urgent action is needed to mitigate these tremendous — even existential — risks. Rapidly reducing carbon dioxide emissions is necessary, but not nearly sufficient. In fact, studies show that even rapid cuts in carbon dioxide would mitigate only about 0.1 to 0.3 degrees Celsius of carbon dioxide warming by 2050. That is why it is also vital to slash emissions of so-called short-lived climate pollutants: Methane, black carbon, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and tropospheric ozone. Such action could mitigate six times as much warming as reductions in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Overall, eliminating emissions of these super pollutants would halve the rate of overall global warming and reduce projected Arctic warming by two thirds.
Some progress is being made. Almost four years ago, in Kigali, Rwanda, 197 countries adopted an amendment to the Montreal Protocol focused on phasing out HFCs. Already, the Montreal Protocol has facilitated the phase-out of nearly 100 chemicals that fuel global warming and endanger the ozone layer.
Moreover, in the US, the Senate last month reached a bipartisan deal to cut the production and importation of HFCs by 85 percent by 2036. California, for its part, has slashed black carbon emissions by 90 percent since the 1960s, and will halve the remainder by 2030. And the US Climate Alliance — a bipartisan group of 25 state governors — has set the goal of reducing methane emissions by 40 to 50 percent by 2030.
These are laudable goals. But reaching them, let alone the more ambitious targets needed to stem the rise in global temperature, will require us to overcome strong headwinds.
• Mario Molina, a 1995 Nobel laureate in chemistry, was a professor at the University of California, San Diego, and the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
• Durwood Zaelke is President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development and a co-director of the Program on Governance for Sustainable Development at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
©Project Syndicate