Libya

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 18/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.october18.19.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
No one, when tempted, should say, ‘I am being tempted by God’; for God cannot be tempted by evil and he himself tempts no one.
Letter of James 01/09-18/:”Let the believer who is lowly boast in being raised up, and the rich in being brought low, because the rich will disappear like a flower in the field. For the sun rises with its scorching heat and withers the field; its flower falls, and its beauty perishes. It is the same with the rich; in the midst of a busy life, they will wither away. Blessed is anyone who endures temptation. Such a one has stood the test and will receive the crown of life that the Lord has promised to those who love him. No one, when tempted, should say, ‘I am being tempted by God’; for God cannot be tempted by evil and he himself tempts no one. But one is tempted by one’s own desire, being lured and enticed by it; then, when that desire has conceived, it gives birth to sin, and that sin, when it is fully grown, gives birth to death. Do not be deceived, my beloved. Every generous act of giving, with every perfect gift, is from above, coming down from the Father of lights, with whom there is no variation or shadow due to change. In fulfilment of his own purpose he gave us birth by the word of truth, so that we would become a kind of first fruits of his creatures.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 17-18/2019
Saint Charbel, A Lebanese Maronite Saint, cures a baby in the USA from a heart deformity
Protesters Take to Streets across Lebanon over Planned Taxes
Protests in Lebanon after move to tax calls on messaging apps
Protesters Take to Streets across Lebanon over Planned Taxes
Lebanon: Berri Calls For Finalizing Budget Within 2 Days
Aoun Meets Irish Counterpart Raises Refugees File, Israeli Violations
Cabinet Adopts Border Control Strategy, Postpones Budget Debate
Govt. Approves Imposing Fees on Free Online Calling Apps
Choucair Says Users to Get 'Something in Return' as 'WhatsApp Tax' Slammed
Report: Cabinet Inches Closer to Approving 2020 Budget
No One in Lebanon Can 'Turn the Tables', Says Hizbullah Minister
Jumblat Pledges to 'Confront Alone'

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 17-18/2019
Pence says Turkey to end military operation after Syrian Kurd withdrawal
Trump announces ‘great news’ after Pence-Erdogan talks in Ankara
US senators announce sanctions bill on Turkey over Syria offensive
224 SDF soldiers, 183 Turkish-backed rebels killed in Syria clashes - monitor
EU should toughen sanctions against Turkey, says parliament head Sassoli
ISIS says it ‘freed’ women held by Syrian Kurdish-led forces
Damascus says Syrians ‘unified’ against Turkish assault
Turkey Agrees to End Syria Operation, Pence Says
Assad Says Syria to Counter Turkey by 'All Legitimate Means'
Damascus must receive control of Syrian-Turkish border, says Russian FM
Merkel says Germany won’t deliver any weapons to Turkey
Saudi Arabia and Palestinians agree to establish economic committee, joint business council
UK, EU Strike Brexit Deal, Urge MPs to Back It

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 17-18/2019
Why Are Palestinians 'Disappearing' in Saudi Arabia/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/October 17/2019
Putin Is the New King of Syria/Jonathan Spyer/WSJ/October 17/2019
Greece: Reminding the New Government Why It Was Elected/Maria Polizoidou/Gatestone Institute/October 17/2019
Analysis/Trump's About-face in Syria Forces Israel to Rethink Its Middle East Strategy/Amos Harel/Haaretz/October 17/ 2019
Israeli Court Rules That Aramean Minority Can Choose Jewish or Arab Education/Shira Kadari-Ovadia/Haaretz/October 17/ 2019
What should the West do as UN arms embargo on Iran ends in 2020?
Behnam Ben Taleblu/Senior Fellow/Andrea Stricker/Research Fellow/ Radio /Farda/October 17/2019
Iran to limit inspectors' access to its nuclear facilities/Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor/The Guardian//October 17/2019
The hasty U.S. pullback from Syria is a searing moment in America’s withdrawal from the Middle East/Liz Sly/Washington Post//October 17/2019
Israel must help its allies the Kurds/Uri Heitner/Ynetnews/October 17/2019
Rouhani’s six years as president prove he is far from moderate/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 17/2019
Turkish attack in Syria a curse for the region/Randa Takieddine/Arab News/October 17/2019
Should security trump civil liberties in social media age/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/October 17/2019
Democratic candidates need to focus on each other, not Trump/Ellen R. Wald/Arab News/October 17/2019
Another Geographic Detail is Drawn by the Sponsors of the Syrian Tragedy/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 17/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 17-18/2019
Saint Charbel, A Lebanese Maronite Saint, cures a baby in the USA from a heart deformity. The report enclosed is on behalf of the baby's mother. It is a miracle. The report is in Arabic and with it a video for the mother telling the story
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79547/%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%a8%d9%84-%d9%84%d9%83%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85-%d8%a3%d8%b9%d8%ac%d9%88%d8%a8%d8%a9-%d8%ac%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%af%d8%a9-%d8%aa%d8%b7%d8%a7%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85/

Protesters Take to Streets across Lebanon over Planned Taxes
Naharnet/October 17/2019
Protesters took to the streets and blocked key roads across Lebanon on Thursday evening over the government’s inclination to impose new taxes, especially a tax on voice calls via internet apps. The protests first started at downtown Beirut’s Riad al-Solh Square following calls on social media before spreading to nearby areas and eventually to regions outside Beirut. The demonstrators blocked roads in Beirut’s Riad al-Solh, Saifi and Ring areas before heading to several streets in the capital. Outside Beirut, roads were blocked in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Jdeideh, Khaldeh, Dora, Tripoli, Sidon, Zgharta, Jounieh, Taanayel, Keserwan, Houla, Hermel, al-Beddawi, al-Labweh, al-Dinniyeh, Bhamdoun, Chekka, Riyaq, Nabatieh, Marjeyoun, Barja and Jib Jannine. The old airport road and the Masnaa highway that leads to Syria were also blocked by protesters.
“The people want the downfall of the regime,” the protesters chanted in downtown Beirut. President Michel Aoun meanwhile decided to convene Cabinet Friday at 2:00 pm at the Baabda Palace, following phone talks with Prime Minister Saad Hariri.
Telecommunications Minister Mohammed Choucair for his part said that, at the request of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, he has decided to reverse the decision to slap taxes on calls via internet apps, while noting that Cabinet had unanimously approved the move. Civil society groups including the You Stink movement which spearheaded the 2015 protests took part in the demos.
The protests in central Beirut involved an incident with the convoy of Education Minister Akram Shehayyeb. Protesters said the minister’s bodyguards opened fire in the air as the convoy was passing in the area. "We elected them and we will remove them from power," one protester told a local TV station. Public anger has simmered since parliament passed an austerity budget in July, with the aim of trimming the country's ballooning deficit. The situation worsened last month after banks and money exchange houses rationed dollar sales, sparking fears of a currency devaluation.
The government is assessing a series of further belt-tightening measures it hopes will rescue the country's ailing economy and secure $11 billion in aid pledged by international donors last year. And it is expected to announce a series of additional tax hikes in the coming months as part of next year's budget.On Wednesday, the government approved tax hikes on tobacco products. Growth in Lebanon has plummeted in the wake of repeated political deadlocks in recent years, compounded by the impact of eight years of war in neighboring Syria. Lebanon's public debt stands at around $86 billion -- higher than 150 percent of GDP -- according to the finance ministry. Eighty percent of that figure is owed to Lebanon's central bank and local banks.

Protests in Lebanon after move to tax calls on messaging apps
Hachem OSSEIRAN/AFP/October 18/2019
Protesters burned tyres as hundreds of people took to the streets in anger over a move to tax calls on messaging apps
Beirut (AFP) - Hundreds of people took to the streets across Lebanon on Thursday to protest dire economic conditions after a government decision to tax calls made on messaging applications sparked widespread outrage.
The far-reaching demonstrations forced the government to walk back on its decision to approve the tax late on Thursday, Telecommunications Minister Mohammad Choucair said.
Demonstrations erupted in the capital Beirut, in its southern suburbs, in the southern city of Sidon, in the northern city of Tripoli and in the Bekaa Valley, the state-run National News Agency reported.
Across the country, demonstrators chanted the popular refrain of the 2011 Arab Spring protests: "The people demand the fall of the regime."
Protesters in the capital blocked the road to the airport with burning tyres, while others massed near the interior ministry in central Beirut, NNA said.
"We elected them and we will remove them from power," one protester told a local TV station. Public anger has simmered since parliament passed an austerity budget in July with the aim of trimming the country's ballooning deficit.
The situation worsened last month after banks and money exchange houses rationed dollar sales, sparking fears of a currency devaluation.
The government is assessing a series of further belt-tightening measures it hopes will rescue the country's ailing economy and secure $11 billion in aid pledged by international donors last year.
And it is expected to announce a series of additional tax hikes in the coming months as part of next year's budget.
On Wednesday, the government approved tax hikes on tobacco products.
'Direct violation'
Before the proposed tax was scrapped, Information Minister Jamal Jarrah had announced a 20 cent daily fee for messaging app users who made calls on platforms such as WhatsApp and Viber. He told reporters after a cabinet session the move will bring $200 million annually into the government's coffers.
Lebanese digital rights group SMEX said the country's main mobile operators are already planning to introduce new technology that will allow them to detect whether users are trying to make internet calls using their networks.
"Lebanon already has some of the highest mobile prices in the region," SMEX said on Twitter.

Lebanon: Berri Calls For Finalizing Budget Within 2 Days
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 17 October, 2019
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri underlined the need for the concerned officials to finalize the budget and reform files in order to adopt the 2020 budget within the constitutional deadlines. In remarks on Wednesday during his bloc’s weekly meeting in Ain el-Tineh, Berri said: “Why are we in a state of denial as if we were not suffering from a financial, economic and social crisis,” despite the unanimous consensus over a series of reforms that would include the budget, the electricity and other issues. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Saad Hariri discussed with Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil the overall political and economic situation in the country, according to the Prime Minister’s page via Twitter. The meeting, held at the Grand Serail, came amid reports of differences in views between the political blocs on the files linked to government measures regarding the budget.
Political sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the foreign minister “was not accurate in conveying Hezbollah's position to Hariri.”The sources said: “Bassil communicated with Hezbollah, and the party informed him that it supported increasing taxes on luxuries, provided that the list of luxuries is agreed upon; but Bassil did not convey this position to Hariri. Instead, he told him that the party refused to increase the VAT by 1 percent on luxuries.”The sources said that the party considered that Bassil was not accurate in conveying the content of the conversation. “Hezbollah agrees to raise the VAT by 1 percent, provided that it is applied on luxury goods,” said Hezbollah Minister Mohammad Fneish. “Taxes on the low-income class will not be accepted,” he emphasized.

Aoun Meets Irish Counterpart Raises Refugees File, Israeli Violations
Naharnet/October 17/2019
President Michel Aoun on Thursday held a meeting with visiting Irish President at Baabda Palace who said that Ireland is keen on backing the Lebanese government, as discussions highlighted the need for Syrian refugees in Lebanon to return back home. “Ireland is keen on backing the Lebanese government to stimulate a vibrant economy,” Michael Higgins, the president of Ireland said. Higgins considered that “one of the most important dimensions in the bilateral relationship between Ireland and Lebanon is the long-term Irish commitment in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon,” pointing out that “peacekeeping is a vital part of Irish foreign policy.”“President Aoun and I have been able to discuss the establishment of the Human Rights Academy in the UN General Assembly this year, and Ireland is pleased to have co-sponsored the establishment of this Academy," he added. Aoun for his part said he “briefed the President on Lebanon's adherence to UN resolution 1701 and Israel’s withdrawal from territories it still occupies, with its legitimate right to self-defense, as Israel continues to violate this resolution by land, sea and air.”“Ireland's active participation in the peacekeeping forces in the south contributed to the security and stability of Lebanon for more than 40 years, which created an entire Irish generation sympathetic to Lebanon and its causes,” added Aoun. The crisis of Syrian refugees in Lebanon was also a key issue, he said: “We focused on the importance of finding political solutions to the Syrian crisis, which contributes to their return to their country. Lebanon can no longer bear more burdens due to the magnitude of this displacement.”

Cabinet Adopts Border Control Strategy, Postpones Budget Debate
Naharnet/October 17/2019
The Cabinet on Thursday approved a border control strategy amid the reservations of the Lebanese Forces party, as the debate of the 2020 draft state budget was postponed to a session that will be held on Friday.
Information Minister Jamal al-Jarrah said the strategy aims to “control the border with the neighboring countries.”“The plan I have submitted involves all the legitimate border crossings and the control and monitoring of our entire border,” Defense Minister Elias Bou Saab said. Deputy Prime Minister Ghassan Hasbani of the LF said his party agreed to the plan but voiced reservations because it “does not involve the illegal border crossings.”“We were hoping the border plan would be broader and more comprehensive,” he added. And as Jarrah said that the state budget might be finalized in Friday’s session, media reports said Prime Minister Saad Hariri held a meeting after Thursday’s session with a number of ministers to discuss hiking the VAT tax by 1% and the gasoline tax by 3% and the possibility of slashing the salaries of public sector retirees. Jarrah also noted that the government decided to tax voice calls via internet applications following a suggestion from Telecommunications Minister Mohammed Choucair. “Users can still send pictures, videos and voice messages without any fees, while a 20-cent tax will be slapped on voice calls and this move will secure around $200 million,” the minister noted.

Govt. Approves Imposing Fees on Free Online Calling Apps
Naharnet/October 17/2019
The decline in telecom revenues seems to be a concern for the Lebanese state with the revenues of the sector falling by about 33% from 2017 and 2018, reports said. The Telecommunications Ministry attributed the decline to the use of free online calling applications including WhatsApp, Viber, Skype, Facebook Call and other. At the Cabinet meeting Wednesday, the ministers agreed to impose a 20 cents fee per day for each WhatsApp subscriber or any similar application. Shall the Parliament approve that Cabinet’s proposal, subscribers will pay an equivalent of $6 per month for the service, said the reports. If approved, the new fees will reportedly provide $216 million per year to the State’s treasury. Later on Thursday, Information Minister Jamal Jarrah confirmed that the Cabinet had approved to impose a daily fee of $0.20 on WhatsApp calls. He added that the decision would be effective as of January 1, 2020.
Jarrah did not provide more details but Lebanese digital rights group SMEX said the country's main mobile operators are already planning to introduce new technology that will allow them to detect whether users are trying to make internet calls using their networks. "Lebanon already has some of the highest mobile prices in the region," SMEX said on Twitter. The latest policy "will force users to pay for internet services twice," it added. TechGeek365, another digital rights group, said it contacted WhatsApp and Facebook regarding the matter. "A spokesperson mentioned that if the decision is taken, it would be a direct violation of their ToS (terms of service)," it said. "Profiting from any specific functionality within WhatsApp is illegal," it added on Twitter. But SMEX said that the 20 cent fee would be "a condition of data plans" offered by mobile operators. "Also, Facebook previously complied with a social media tax in Uganda, which is effectively the same thing," it said on Twitter. The latest policy is part of a series of austerity measures being introduced by the government in an attempt to rescue the country's ailing economy and secure $11 billion in aid pledged by international donors last year. Growth in Lebanon has plummeted in the wake of repeated political deadlocks in recent years, compounded by the impact of eight years of war in neighboring Syria. Lebanon's public debt stands at around $86 billion -- higher than 150 percent of GDP -- according to the finance ministry. Eighty percent of that figure is owed to Lebanon's central bank and local banks. In July, parliament passed its 2019 budget, which is expected to trim Lebanon's deficit to 7.59 percent of GDP -- a nearly 4-point drop from the previous year.

Choucair Says Users to Get 'Something in Return' as 'WhatsApp Tax' Slammed
Naharnet/October 17/2019
Telecommunications Minister Mohammed Choucair on Thursday said the planned fee on voice calls via WhatsApp and other apps is “not a tax” and that “nothing will be increased without giving something in return to citizens.”“This is what I will explain in a press conference next week,” Choucair told MTV, noting that “the decision is the decision of the government with its various political blocs, not only the telecom minister.”Sport and Youth Minister Mohammed Fneish of Hizbullah meanwhile said his party will not endorse the tax. “Our stance is clear and we reject any taxes that burden citizens,” he said.
LBCI television meanwhile reported that the tax will affect callers and receivers alike if they are using mobile network data and that Wi-Fi users will not be taxed in the “first stage” of implementation. Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel meanwhile blasted the decision in a tweet. “A tax on WhatsApp? Have your failure and impotence reached this extent? Day after day you are turning the country into a joke. We will not allow you to steal from people’s pockets anew. You are incapable of pulling the country out of its crisis. Leave!” Gemayel tweeted. MP Paula Yacoubian for her part said that “the people will not pay a single lira on the WhatsApp service, which is the only platform through which they can curse some of this political class without being prosecuted.”Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil meanwhile clarified that the planned tax is not part of the 2020 state budget.
“Nothing has been approved and the WhatsApp tax has nothing to do with the state budget. It is rather a minister’s decision and I’m committed to refraining from imposing taxes on the people in the state budget,” he said.
The decision has sparked a storm of outrage on social networking websites. In the evening, a group of demonstrators blocked the Riad al-Solh road in protest at the planned new taxes after heeding social media calls. Information Minister Jamal al-Jarrah said the decision to tax online calls approved by cabinet on Wednesday will go into effect on January 1, 2020, adding that the move will bring $200 million into the government's coffers. Jarrah did not provide more details but Lebanese digital rights group SMEX said the country's main mobile operators are already planning to introduce new technology that will allow them to detect whether users are trying to make internet calls using their networks. "Lebanon already has some of the highest mobile prices in the region," SMEX said on Twitter. The latest policy "will force users to pay for internet services twice," it added. TechGeek365, another digital rights group, said it contacted WhatsApp and Facebook regarding the matter. "A spokesperson mentioned that if the decision is taken, it would be a direct violation of their ToS (terms of service)," it said. "Profiting from any specific functionality within WhatsApp is illegal," it added on Twitter.
But SMEX said that the 20 cent fee would be "a condition of data plans" offered by mobile operators.

Report: Cabinet Inches Closer to Approving 2020 Budget
Naharnet/October 17/2019
The Cabinet has drawn closer to approving the 2020 draft budget before the October 22 constitutional deadline, following its Wednesday meeting where ministers endorsed several decrees and reforms to cut expenditures and increase the state’s revenues. In Wednesday’s meeting, Information Minister Jamal Jarrah said the Cabinet endorsed a decision by the Finance Minister raising fees on imported and local tobacco products. "The Cabinet approved the installation of scanners at the border to control smuggling. It also asked all public institutions and utilities not to make any additional investment expenditure, except after the approval of the Council of Ministers, and the transfer of the surplus of these institutions on a monthly basis to the Lebanese treasury," said Jarrah after the meeting. “We also approved the cancellation and integration of some institutions and public utilities that are unnecessary or can be incorporated in other ministries,” Jarrah announced. “The Minister of Finance was also tasked with conducting an inventory of the state’s real properties in preparation for a decision on its use. We also passed a law program over 3 years worth 470 billion Lebanese pounds, in order to implement the investment projects approved in Parliament amounting to $3.3 billion dollars,” he stated. The Ministers of Labor and Parliamentary Affairs were tasked with following up on the pension law, which had already been approved by the Council of Ministers and sent to the Parliament. Ministers were also asked to make suggestions about a draft World Bank study on reforms. It was also decided to give a 5 percent subsidy to local factories that increase their exports. “If this factory exports products worth $1 million this year, and next year exports goods worth $1.2 million, it gets a 5 percent subsidy on the additional $200 thousand to encourage industrial exports,” stated Jarrah. Moreover, it was agreed to transfer the McKinsey economic plan to the Economic Commission ministerial committee for study. Jarrah also said that the state had decided to begin buying hydrocarbons from the public Lebanon Oil Installations, rather than private suppliers. He said the state already does this with diesel, a heavy, low quality fuel oil, and would study doing so for other fuels including gasoline. Jarrah said the State decided to start buying hydrocarbons from Lebanon Oil Installations (a governmental body related to the Ministry of Energy and Water) rather than private suppliers.
“Tomorrow, we will hold a cabinet meeting at 2:30 in the afternoon, we will finish the agenda and then we will continue to discuss the budget,” he concluded.

No One in Lebanon Can 'Turn the Tables', Says Hizbullah Minister
Naharnet/October 17/2019
State Minister for Parliament Affairs Mahmoud Qmati, who belongs to Hizbullah, on Thursday stressed that no party in Lebanon can “turn the tables,” following remarks in this regard by Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil.
“In Lebanon, no one can turn the tables on anyone, because that would be an elimination of the other,” said Qmati as he entered a Cabinet session at the Grand Serail. The FPM-led Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc on Tuesday noted that it does not want to “turn the tables” on political rivals in the country but rather on corruption and the financial and economic situation. Bassil had threatened on Sunday to “turn the tables” on the critics of President Michel Aoun’s tenure.

Jumblat Pledges to 'Confront Alone'
Naharnet/October 17/2019
Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat on Thursday announced that his party is ready to confront the policies of the new presidential tenure and the Free Patriotic Movement even without the help of any other party.
“No matter what your capabilities in falsifying history, terror, arrests, oppression and murder might be, remember that we faced tougher and harsher circumstances and that we do not mind to confront alone,” Jumblat tweeted. “We belong to the school of (PSP founder) Kamal Jumblat, who said that ‘life is the triumph of those whose spirits are strong and not of the weak,’” Jumblat added.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 17-18/2019
Pence says Turkey to end military operation after Syrian Kurd withdrawal
AFP, Ankara/Thursday, 17 October 2019
Turkey has agreed to completely end military operations in northern Syria after Kurdish fighters withdraw from a safe zone, US Vice President Mike Pence said on Thursday. Turkey’s operation “will be halted entirely on completion” of the pullout, Pence told reporters after talks in Ankara.

Trump announces ‘great news’ after Pence-Erdogan talks in Ankara
Reuters, Washington/Thursday, 17 October 2019
US President Donald Trump said on Twitter on Thursday there was “great news out of Turkey” after a US delegation held talks in Ankara over Turkey’s military incursion into northeast Syria. “Thank you to (Turkish President Tayyip) Erdogan,” Trump said. “Millions of lives will be saved!”
US Vice President Mike Pence met Erdogan earlier on Thursday as part of a US mission to persuade Turkey to halt an offensive against Kurdish fighters in Syria. Separately a Turkish official told Reuters that Turkey “got exactly what we wanted out of the meeting.”

US senators announce sanctions bill on Turkey over Syria offensive
Reuters, Washington/Thursday, 17 October 2019
US senators on Thursday announced legislation carrying wide-ranging sanctions on Turkey over its offensive in Syria. The bill from the Republican-led Senate targets Turkish officials and mandates sanctions over Turkey’s purchase of Russia s-400 missile system. Republican US Senator Lindsey Graham predicted strong bipartisan support for the bill.

224 SDF soldiers, 183 Turkish-backed rebels killed in Syria clashes - monitor
Reuters, Beirut/Thursday, 17 October 2019
A Turkish offensive into northeast Syria has led to the death of 224 from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and 183 Turkish-backed rebels after the first eight days of fighting, the Syrian Observatory reported on Thursday. The toll includes 72 civilian deaths, the Observatory added, which comes after a deal between Damascus and the SDF to allow government forces to deploy across the Syria-Turkey border to help fend off the Turkish assault.

EU should toughen sanctions against Turkey, says parliament head Sassoli
Reuters, Brussels/Thursday, 17 October 2019
The President of the European Parliament David Sassoli called for tougher sanctions of the European Union against Turkey and said Ankara’s membership talks with the EU should be suspended because of the Turkish invasion of north Syria. “Sanctions should be much tougher and include existing contracts,” Sassoli told a news conference in Brussels. Earlier this week EU governments committed not to sign new arms sale deals with Turkey, but did not take any action against existing ones. Sassoli, an Italian center-left politician, also told EU leaders that membership talks with Turkey should be suspended.

ISIS says it ‘freed’ women held by Syrian Kurdish-led forces
AFP, Beirut/Thursday, 17 October 2019
ISIS said Thursday it had “freed” women held by Syria’s Kurds, the latest in a series of reported breakouts since Turkey launched a cross-border offensive last week. In a statement released on the Telegram messaging application, ISIS said it had stormed a security headquarters west of its former stronghold of Raqqa on Wednesday, “freeing Muslim women kidnapped” by Kurdish-led forces.It did not give a number or say if the women were ISIS members or wives of extremists.

Damascus says Syrians ‘unified’ against Turkish assault
AFP, Damascus/Thursday, 17 October 2019
Damascus on Thursday said Syrians are unified against a cross-border Turkish assault, in its first statement since deploying troops in Kurdish-controlled areas to contain Ankara’s offensive. “The Syrian government renews its absolute rejection and strong condemnation of Turkey’s blatant aggression,” said a foreign ministry statement carried by state news agency SANA. It “affirms the cohesion among Syrians, all Syrians, and their unity, more than ever, under Syria’s national flag.”The foreign ministry statement accused Ankara of causing “death and destruction” in an offensive that revealed Ankara’s “expansionist aims,” SANA reported. Nine days since Turkey launched an offensive against Kurdish-led forces and Kurdish groups in northern Syria, dozens of civilians have been killed and 300,000 have been displaced, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Damascus on Sunday clinched a deal with Kurdish-led forces that saw troops deploying in parts of the Kurdish-run northeast, including the key areas of Manbij and Kobane. The deployment is the most significant by the army since it began a large-scale pullout from the region in 2012. It came after the US pulled out from Syria’s northern region last week, exposing its Kurdish partners to a Turkish assault. What the Kurds resent as a US betrayal paved the way for a desperate deal with Damascus, despite long-standing skepticism. Marginalized for decades, Syria’s minority Kurds carved out a de facto autonomous region across some 30 per cent of the nation’s territory after the devastating war broke out in 2011. Damascus, which has previously accused the Kurds of treason over their alliance with Washington, rejects their self-rule and wants central government institutions restored in Kurdish-held areas, especially in the oil-rich east.

Turkey Agrees to End Syria Operation, Pence Says
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 17/2019
Turkey has agreed to suspend its Syria offensive for five days and will end the assault if Kurdish-led forces withdraw from a safe zone away from the border, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence and Turkish officials said on Thursday.
Turkey and Syrian rebel proxies began an offensive in northern Syria last week against Kurdish fighters who Ankara brands terrorists, despite international concern over regional stability and civilian deaths. Turkey's operation "will be halted entirely on completion" of the pullout, Pence told reporters after talks with Turkish officials in Ankara. Pence said the US would work with the Kurdish fighters "to facilitate an orderly withdrawal in the next 120 hours." He said: "Let me say that's already begun. The demarcation line, 20 miles south of the border." Pence held talks for more than an hour with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the two were later joined by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other officials. Pence also said the US would withdraw recently imposed sanctions on Turkey after it ends its military operation. During a five-day ceasefire, the United States "will not be implementing additional sanctions," he said. Once a permanent ceasefire is in place and Kurdish have withdrawn, the United States also agreed to withdraw the sanctions that were imposed on several cabinet officials and several agencies, he said. Speaking to reporters, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu confirmed suspension of the offensive until Kurdish militants withdraw from the area. "We are suspending the operation, not halting it," he said. "We will halt the operation only after (Kurdish militants) completely withdraw from the region." Cavusoglu also rejected calling the agreement as a "ceasefire.""This is not a ceasefire. A ceasefire is reached between the two legitimate parties," he said. Ankara considers Syrian Kurdish YPG militants to be an extension the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) -- a group that has fought a bloody insurgency inside Turkey for 35 years.

Assad Says Syria to Counter Turkey by 'All Legitimate Means'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 17/2019
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said Thursday his forces will counter Turkey's invasion by "all legitimate means", in his first remarks since deploying troops near the border to support Ankara's Kurdish rivals. We "will respond to it and confront it, in all its forms, anywhere in Syria, using all legitimate means at our disposal," Assad told Iraqi national security adviser Faleh al-Fayad on the ninth day of Turkey's assault against Kurdish forces. Since Turkey's invasion of northeast Syria started on October 9, dozens of civilians have been killed and 300,000 have been displaced, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.Damascus on Sunday clinched a deal with Kurdish forces that saw Syrian army troops deploying in parts of the Kurdish-run northeast, including the key areas of Manbij and Kobane. The deployment is the most significant by the army since it began a large-scale pullout from the region in 2012.

Damascus must receive control of Syrian-Turkish border, says Russian FM
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Thursday, 17 October 2019
The Syrian government must receive control of the Syrian-Turkish border, said Russia's Foreign Ministry's spokesperson Maria Vladimirovna Zakharova, according to Interfax. “We are convinced that achieving sustainable long-term stabilisation and security in this region of Syria, in the country, and in the region as a whole, is possible only on the basis of the establishment, first of all, of its sovereignty, territorial integrity,” Zakharova told reporters, according to the Financial Times. “This means transferring, ultimately, to the control of the lawful Syrian government of all national territories, including the border with Turkey,” she added. Russia is an ally of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, based in Syria's capital Damascus. Last week, Turkey launched a military offensive into northeastern Syria, which was under the control of Kurdish-led forces. At least 218 civilians have been killed, according to the Kurdish-led authorities, as Turkish forces continue to fight against Kurdish-led forces for the control of border towns.

Merkel says Germany won’t deliver any weapons to Turkey
Reuters, Berlin/Thursday, 17 October 2019
Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday that Germany would not deliver any weapons to Turkey under current circumstances and added that she had urged Turkey several times to end its military operation in northern Syria. “In recent days I have strongly urged Turkey ... to end its military operation against the Kurdish military and I’m stressing that again now,” Merkel told Germany’s lower house of parliament. “It’s a humanitarian drama with huge geopolitical effects so Germany will not deliver any weapons to Turkey under the current conditions,” she added. US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw US forces before a Turkish offensive into northern Syria last week has shattered the relative calm there and he has been accused of abandoning Kurdish-led forces who helped the United States fight ISIS in the region.

Saudi Arabia and Palestinians agree to establish economic committee, joint business council
Arab News/October 17/2019/RIYADH: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas agreed to establish an economic committee and joint business council on Thursday, Saudi Press Agency reported. Crown Prince Mohammed and President Abbas also discussed the Palestinian issue and efforts made to guarantee the rights of the Palestinian people to establish an independent state with east Jerusalem as its capital. Crown Prince Mohammed’s meeting with the Palestinian president came a day after King Salman met with him on Wednesday in the capital Riyadh.

UK, EU Strike Brexit Deal, Urge MPs to Back It
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 17/2019
European Union leaders endorsed a hard-fought Brexit deal with Britain on Thursday, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces an uphill battle getting it through the British parliament. A summit of EU leaders "endorsed this deal and it looks like we are very close to the final stretch," EU Council summit host Donald Tusk told reporters after the meeting. European leaders said they hoped the deal would pass, but British opposition parties and Johnson's own allies in the House of Commons were quick to warn they would not support it when it goes to a vote in a special sitting on Saturday. If the deal is defeated, the prime minister is obliged under British law to ask EU leaders to postpone Brexit beyond the current October 31 deadline for what would be the third time. Juncker sought to focus MPs' minds, saying there was no need for a delay. "We have a deal, and this deal means there is no need for any kind of prolongation," he told reporters -- although the decision will be for EU leaders, not him. Johnson, a leader of the 2016 Brexit referendum vote who has vowed to leave the EU this month, said he had secured a "great new deal that takes back control". He urged MPs "to come together to get Brexit done, to get this excellent deal over the line and to deliver Brexit without any more delay." The deal is a personal victory for Johnson, who was told repeatedly by EU leaders that they were not open to reworking a deal initially inked last year. But it could quickly turn to defeat if the House of Commons -- which rejected a previous divorce text three times -- again refuses to play ball. The immediate reaction was hostile. Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which props up Johnson's Conservatives, said it "will be unable to support these proposals". The main opposition Labor, Scottish National and Liberal Democrat parties also spoke out against it. Their response sent the pound sinking again after it had earlier risen to five-month peaks on news of the deal.
'No Irish border'
The draft agreement was forged just weeks before Britain was due to leave the bloc, ending more than four decades of close economic and political ties with its nearest neighbors. Weeks of tense negotiations focused on changing the arrangements to keep open the border between British Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland. All sides agree they do not want infrastructure on the frontier, to avoid exacerbating tensions over Britain's control of Northern Ireland that caused decades of deadly violence up until the 1990s. The new plan would keep the United Kingdom as a single customs territory, allowing it to strike international trade deals, but require London to levy EU tariffs on certain goods passing through Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland would also follow the EU's rules on agrifood and industrial goods. "There will be no border on the island of Ireland and the (EU's) single market will be protected," Juncker said.
But it would involve some customs and tax checks between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain, and the DUP warned the plans "undermine the integrity of the union". Northern Ireland's regional assembly would be given a vote every four years on whether to maintain the arrangements, but the DUP warned that did not go far enough.
Referendum call
Johnson has assured his European counterparts that he can get the deal through parliament, and French President Emmanuel Macron said he was "reasonably confident" the deal could be ratified. But he has no majority among MPs, and his threat to leave the EU with or without a deal this month has exacerbated existing divisions in parliament. Opposition Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn said the only way out was for a second referendum, amid speculation such a motion could be put to MPs at Saturday's sitting. "The best way to get Brexit sorted is to give the people the final say in a public vote," he said. However, it is not clear there is enough support in the House of Commons for a new referendum, and Johnson's government is strongly opposed. Opinion polls show Britons remain deeply divided over Brexit, although the balance has shifted slightly in favor of staying in the EU. Labor's objection to the current deal is focused on changes to the political declaration on future trade ties which accompanies the divorce terms. It paves the way for much looser ties between Britain and the EU than was previously envisaged, as part of a free trade agreement. "The deal he's proposed is heading Britain in the direction of a deregulated society and a sell-off of national assets to American corporations," Corbyn said.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 17-18/2019
Why Are Palestinians 'Disappearing' in Saudi Arabia?
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/October 17/2019
The Geneva-based Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor (Euro-Med), a youth-led independent organization that advocates for human rights across Europe and the Middle East, said it has collected names of about 60 Palestinians detained by the Saudi authorities in recent months
Euro-Med said it considers the "practices of the Saudi authorities a flagrant violation of the requirements of justice, which guarantees everyone the right to a fair trial, including knowing charges against and the right to defense and access to a lawyer... [and] affirms that the relevant authorities do not comply with the international legal rules that guarantee the simplest rights of litigation for any individual..."
The Saudi authorities have offered no explanation for the widespread campaign targeting Palestinians in the kingdom. It appears that PA President Mahmoud Abbas and his officials in Ramallah fear that any criticism of this behavior would jeopardize the financial handouts and political support they receive from Saudi Arabia.... For Palestinian leaders, Saudi money and political backing far outweigh the fate of a few dozen Palestinians held without trial in an Arab country.
It is only Palestinians who are held by Israel for terrorist-related crimes who Abbas and his friends remember to mention in their endless litanies of complaints.
The issue of the Palestinian detainees in Saudi Arabia seems to have missed the agenda of the discussions. For Palestinian leaders, Saudi money and political backing far outweigh the fate of a few dozen Palestinians held without trial in an Arab country. Pictured: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas visits Saudi King Salman bin Abdel Aziz on December 30, 2015 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Photo by Thaer Ghanaim/Palestinian Press Office via Getty Images)
Dozens of Palestinians have been "disappearing" in Saudi Arabia in recent months and are believed are being held in detention in the kingdom's prisons, according to Palestinian sources and international human rights organizations.
The Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership in the West Bank, which regularly condemns Israel for arresting Palestinians suspected of involvement in terrorism and other anti-Israel activities, has been reluctant to speak out against the Saudi purge of Palestinians, ostensibly for security reasons, not to harm its relations with the kingdom.
The PA is not only keeping mum about the unprecedented Saudi crackdown, but it is also trying to prevent the families of the detainees from protesting in public. Last week, the PA's Preventive Security Service summoned the family of Palestinian engineer Abdullah Odeh, being held in a Saudi prison, and warned them not to protest their son's detention.
Odeh's family was planning to arrive at a football match between Saudi Arabia's national soccer team and the Palestinian national soccer team as part of the World Cup qualifier held on October 15 near the West Bank city of Ramallah.
The family was warned that they would be beaten and arrested if they arrived at the Faisal al-Husseini Football Stadium to protest their son's incarceration in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, the family was ordered to remove all social media posts denouncing the arrest of Odeh and calling for his release.
Odeh's brother, Baraa, wrote on his Facebook page on September 6:
"My brother, engineer Abdullah Odeh, has been held in a Saudi prison for the past month and we don't know anything about him. This is not how a prisoner should be treated in an Islamic country."
In another Facebook post on September 11, Odeh's brother wrote:
"My dear brother, engineer Abdullah. I hope you ate doing well and in good health. I wanted to let you know that we have appealed to the [Palestinian Authority] president, the government and ministries and embassies to get information about your condition... but they don't care because your life, and the lives of those with you, are too cheap for them to pay any attention. Why is an expatriate who goes to earn a living being held without trial?"
Last week, Baraa Odeh was forced by the Palestinian Authority security forces to remove another Facebook post deemed offensive to the Saudis. In that post, he commented on the warm welcome the Saudi national soccer team received upon its arrival in Ramallah ahead of the match with the Palestinians. He wrote:
"My dear brother, engineer Abdullah. I apologize to you. My people gave a warm welcome to the Saudi national soccer team. We are proud of this reception. A Palestinian family has been subjected to injustice by Saudi Arabia, which has been holding my brother in detention without trial for the past two months. My brother worked as an electrical engineer in Saudi Arabia for five years. Tomorrow I will go to the stadium to hold a peaceful protest and carry my brother's photo."
The Geneva-based Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor (Euro-Med), a youth-led independent organization that advocates for human rights across Europe and the Middle East, said it has collected names of about 60 Palestinians detained by the Saudi authorities in recent months.
The organization said that it has documented testimonies from 11 Palestinian families whose sons have been detained or were forcibly "disappeared" during their stay in, or visit to, Saudi Arabia. The detainees include students, residents, academics and businessmen, Euro-Med said in a statement, adding:
"In fact, those people were isolated from the outside world without any specific indictments against them. They were not brought before the public prosecution, nor allowed to communicate with their relatives, or communicate with their lawyers."
Selin Yasar, Euro-Med's communication and media officer, said that the "campaign in Saudi Arabia of arresting Palestinians is but one in a long series of human rights violations in the country."
The family of one of the Palestinian detainees in Saudi Arabia told the organization that they were prevented from asking about his fate or the place of detention. "My biggest heartache is not knowing anything about my husband," the detainee's wife complained. "I don't know if he is alive, dead, healthy or tortured, and this made his disappearance more painful for my children, his parents, and his siblings."
Another Palestinian family whose son is being held in Saudi Arabia said they lost contact with him last July; since then, they have heard nothing about his fate or whereabouts. During the same month, the Saudi authorities also arrested a 60-year-old Palestinian businessman who has been living in Jeddah for decades. Euro-Med reported that one of the detainee's sons said that the Saudi authorities confiscated his money, threatened his family members to keep silent, and prevented them from leaving Saudi Arabia. Even Palestinians who went to Mecca for the Islamic pilgrimage (hajj) have fallen victim to the Saudi "security-motivated" detentions. According to Euro-Med, the families of the detainees remain silent on the matter "in the hope that the nightmare of enforced disappearance would come to an end, and they would return to normal life."
Euro-Med wrote in another statement:
"The Euro-Med considered the practices of the Saudi authorities a flagrant violation of the requirements of justice, which guaranteed everyone the right to a fair trial including knowing charges against them, the right to defense and access to a lawyer...
"It also affirms that the relevant authorities do not comply with the international legal rules that guarantee the simplest rights of litigation for any individual, the most important of which are the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights."
While the PA leadership has been silent over the "enforced disappearances" of Palestinians in Saudi Arabia, other Palestinians, including Hamas, the terrorist group in control of the Gaza Strip, have been vocal in their protests and are calling on the Saudi authorities to release the detainees. Hamas says that one of its leaders, Mohammed al-Khoudari, was also arrested several months ago by the Saudi authorities. Earlier this week, the families of some of the detainees protested in the Gaza Strip against the arrest of their sons in Saudi Arabia.
The Saudi authorities have offered no explanation for the widespread campaign targeting Palestinians in the kingdom. It appears that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his officials in Ramallah fear that any criticism of this behavior would jeopardize the financial handouts and political support they receive from Saudi Arabia. Abbas and the PA leadership have long tip-toed around any Arab country that mistreats Palestinians or subjects them to discriminatory laws, as in Lebanon.
Abbas was scheduled to arrive in Riyadh this week for talks with King Salman bin Abdel Aziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on ways of strengthening bilateral relations. The issue of the Palestinian detainees in Saudi Arabia seems to have missed the agenda of the discussions. For Palestinian leaders, Saudi money and political backing far outweigh the fate of a few dozen Palestinians held without trial in an Arab country.
It is only Palestinians who are held by Israel for terrorist-related crimes who Abbas and his friends remember to mention in their endless litanies of complaints. Why spoil relations with Saudi Arabia, one of the PA's prime cash cows, because of a handful of Palestinians who, together with their families, are being denied basic rights in an Arab country that continues, in public, to state its full support for the Palestinians and what they perceive as their rights?
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Putin Is the New King of Syria
جوناثين سباير/بوتين هو الملك الجديد في سوريا
Jonathan Spyer/WSJ/October 17/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79549/%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%ab%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%b3%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%a8%d9%88%d8%aa%d9%8a%d9%86-%d9%87%d9%88-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%84%d9%83-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ac%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%af-%d9%81%d9%8a/
The U.S. withdrawal makes Russia the new arbiter of everyone’s interests, including Israel’s.
By giving Turkey a green light to invade northern Syria, the U.S. upended the balance of power in the Middle East with a single stroke. Russia is the biggest winner.
The Turkish attack, launched in conjunction with Sunni Arab Islamist groups in Syria’s north, had the predictable effect of causing Washington’s erstwhile Kurdish allies to request Bashar Assad’s assistance. Some 150,000 Kurdish civilians had already fled their homes to escape the advance of the Turkish military and its Islamist proxies.
Mr. Assad has already deployed his forces in Tal Tamr, Manbij, Tabqa and Kobani—towns formerly under the exclusive control of Kurdish forces. Details have begun to leak from the proposed deal cementing the surrender of the Syrian Kurds to Mr. Assad. The Turkish offensive continues but has made little progress. The U.S. is still extricating its forces and moving them to the safety of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Vladimir Putin is now the indispensable strategic arbiter in Syria. None of the remaining pieces on the broken chessboard can move without Mr. Putin’s hand. The Assad regime owes its survival to Moscow’s air intervention in September 2015. This reporter and others who have spent time in Damascus note the impunity with which Russian security and other personnel conduct themselves. They are effectively beyond the reach of the local authorities.
Moscow has co-opted important commanders within the Syrian security forces. The powerful and prominent Col. Soheil Hassan, commander of the Tiger Forces, is chief among them. Other than Mr. Assad himself, Col. Hassan was the only Syrian commander invited to meet with President Putin when he visited the Russian air base at Khmeimim in late 2017 to celebrate that year’s dramatic victories against Islamic State.
Russia also has its own forces embedded in the Syrian Arab Army, notably in the Fifth Assault Corps. Danny Makki, a British-Syrian analyst with contacts in the Syrian government, reported on Monday that the detail of the Assad-Kurdish agreement includes a provision for “the abolishment of the SDF”—the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces—“with all the current Kurdish forces and military groups joining the 5th Corps (Assault Legion) under Russian control.”
It is worth pausing for a moment to consider what this means. The SDF consists of some 100,000 seasoned fighters. Until this week it was the sole armed force able to operate east of the Euphrates. Since late 2015, when U.S. Special Forces helped to midwife the alliance, the SDF’s constituent parts—the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) as well as Assyrian Christian forces and Arab tribal militias—have fought under a single banner. In the victorious campaign to retake territory from Islamic State, the SDF has been the decisive actor and the U.S. ground partner of choice. Suddenly this powerful army appears to be coming under Russian control.
The Kurds still operate their civilian administration east of the Euphrates. Their forlorn hope is to salvage and maintain as much as they can of the autonomy they have painstakingly built since 2012. Baathist regimes—Mr. Assad’s as well as Saddam Hussein’s —are noted for unforgiving attitudes toward ethnic separatist projects, and especially those of the Kurds. But the ruling Kurdish party in eastern Syria maintains an office in Moscow. Such hopes as remain will depend on Russia. No one else is available.
Turkey will also depend on Russia to maintain its project in northern Syria. It isn’t clear if there was prior Russian knowledge of the Turkish operation. But by triggering America’s departure and then the rush of the Kurds to embrace Mr. Assad, Turkey’s action delivered two long-sought gifts to Moscow.
As the de facto arbiter, however, Russia now faces a tricky task. It must stand firm against a too-ambitious Turkish project that could trigger chaos and even an Assad-Turkish war east of the Euphrates. At the same time, Moscow aims to permit Turkey sufficient gains to speed its drift away from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and toward alignment with Russia.
To accomplish this, the Russians must first intimidate and then partly accommodate the Turks. Moscow has managed this delicate maneuver west of the Euphrates over the past two years. It will now try to do so on the east side as the Americans head for the exit.
Then there’s Israel—and Iran. With the Americans leaving (except for a residual presence in al-Tanf), de facto U.S. control of the skies of eastern Syria will also end. The SDF is asking for a Russian no-fly zone over eastern Syria to protect the Kurds from the Turkish air force.
If Israel wishes to continue its clandestine war against Iranian weapons transfers and infrastructure-building in Syria, it will be able to do so only with Russian permission, in an arena in which Moscow’s hand is now profoundly stronger. Expect a busy shuttle route to Moscow for whoever emerges as Israel’s prime minister.
Mr. Assad, the Kurds, Turkey and Israel all now depend on Moscow’s approval to advance their interests in Syria. This outcome has been sealed by this week’s sudden windfall, all without the firing of a single Russian bullet. All roads to Syria now run through Moscow. Mr. Putin could hardly ask for more.
Mr. Spyer is director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis and a research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and at the Middle East Forum. He is author of “Days of the Fall: A Reporter’s Journey in the Syria and Iraq Wars.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-is-the-new-king-of-syria-11571264222?fbclid=IwAR2J5d-8NYyXrZsHUHsgw1JN0r0Q3Hko8H0IPAu1G26s53cXoNKwrkYNsH4
Saint Charbel cures a baby in the USA from a heart deformity. The report enclosed is on behalf of the baby's mother. It is a miracle vedio

Greece: Reminding the New Government Why It Was Elected
Maria Polizoidou/Gatestone Institute/October 17/2019
A press report on September 24 revealed that Greece's National Intelligence Service is investigating five Greek NGOs operating in tandem with Turkish intelligence agencies and people-smugglers to transport illegal immigrants to the Greek islands.
Ankara's goal in this operation is an open secret: to unleash a flow of Muslim migrants on Europe.
On September 27, Greek Minister of Defense Nikos Panagiotopoulos said that illegal immigration "is taking on the dimensions of a national crisis, and poses a threat to the country's internal security."
The emergency measures appear laughable, however, when one considers that about 500 people are entering Greece illegally each day, and millions more are waiting to come over from the other shore of the Aegean Sea.
Illegal immigration into Greece cannot be tackled as long as the left-wing elites and media -- with a solid push from neighboring Turkey -- continue to cloak what constitutes a hostile invasion in a mantle of political correctness.
The weakness of the new government of Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis consists of a fear of angering the left. Mitsotakis needs desperately to be reminded why he was elected to replace his left-wing predecessor in the first place.
A resolution adopted by the European Parliament on September 20, "paying tribute to the victims of communism, Nazism and other totalitarian and authoritarian regimes," was passed by an overwhelming majority. This is as it should be, given that communist regimes around the world have caused the deaths of more than 100 million people.
Surprisingly, however, only one out of 21 Greek members of the European Parliament -- the New Democracy Party's MEP, Anna Michel Asimakopoulou -- voted in favor of the resolution. This was in spite of the thousands of casualties and massive damage resulting from the Greek Civil War in 1945-1949 between the communists and the democratic forces in the country.
The other center-right Greek MEPs, whose party not only won the Civil War and brought democracy to the country, but recently rose to power, did exactly the opposite of what they should have done when faced with an anti-communist resolution: they voted against a resolution they should have supported.
The likely explanation for this -- ironically for a center-right party that just won the country's elections -- seems to be a fear of the extremely left-wing culture and politics of multiculturalism and open borders that were defeated democratically in those elections.
This does not bode well for the new government, which was tasked by the voters to solve many of the country's problems, key among them illegal immigration.
A press report on September 24 revealed that Greece's National Intelligence Service is investigating five Greek NGOs operating in tandem with Turkish intelligence agencies and people-smugglers to transport illegal immigrants to the Greek islands.
Ankara's goal in this operation is an open secret: to unleash a flow of Muslim migrants on Europe.
On September 27, Greek Minister of Defense Nikos Panagiotopoulos said that illegal immigration "is taking on the dimensions of a national crisis, and poses a threat to the country's internal security."
Two days later, on September 29, illegal immigrants set fire to their refugee camp in Lesvos, killing one woman.
The purpose of the incendiary uprising -- during which the protesters attacked the firemen and police who arrived to put out the blazes and shouted, "Kill the police!" -- was to destroy the camp and blackmail the Greek government into transferring its inhabitants to the mainland, where they would receive allowances and free housing.
After the arson incident, the government in Athens decided to take emergency measures, such as reinforcing border security through sea patrols, constructing pre-deportation detention centers, increasing the number of deportations to "safe countries," transferring 40,000 legal immigrants to cities around Greece and hiring extra staff to examine the thousands of asylum applications.
The emergency measures appear laughable, however, when one considers that around 500 people are entering Greece illegally each day, and millions more are waiting to come over from the other shore of the Aegean Sea.
To restore internal security to Greece would require far more drastic action, involving the deportation of more than half a million illegal immigrants. This would convey the necessary message to all people seeking to enter Greece illegally that their pursuit is futile.
Deportation, however, is only part of the solution to a problem that must be solved more holistically. Illegal immigration into Greece cannot be tackled as long as the left-wing elites and media -- with a solid push from neighboring Turkey -- continue to cloak what constitutes a hostile invasion in a mantle of political correctness.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his regime are bolstered geopolitically when they smell weakness emanating from Athens. The weakness of the new government of Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis consists of a fear of angering the left.
Mitsotakis needs desperately to be reminded why he was elected to replace his left-wing predecessor in the first place.
Maria Polizoidou, a reporter, broadcast journalist, and consultant on international and foreign affairs, is based in Greece. She has a graduate degree in "Geopolitics and Security Issues in the Islamic complex of Turkey and Middle East" from the University of Athens.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Analysis/Trump's About-face in Syria Forces Israel to Rethink Its Middle East Strategy
عاموس هاريل/هآرتس: مواقف ترامب بما يخص سوريا تجبر إسرائيل على إعادة التفكير بإستراتجيتها الشرق الأوسطية
Amos Harel/Haaretz/October 17/ 2019
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The American disengagement from the region will bear severe, far-reaching consequences.
A flash visit by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Israel as part of a campaign to calm the Middle East; a new Iranian accusation against Israel; a quite unusual meeting between the IDF chief of staff and Kahol Lavan chairman MK Benny Gantz – the accumulation of events over the past 24 hours stirs a certain sense of panic in the air. When some media outlets tie everything together (and report that the meeting between IDF chief Avi Kochavi and Gantz was held against the backdrop of “a possible Iranian attack”) it is easy to think that the Iranians are at our door, again.
But it seems that what connects these things is not necessarily an immediate threat, but the beginning of a long process. While Israel is disturbed by Iranian plans for revenge, these have been coming together for a few months now. The main change is strategic more than anything operational or tactical: The United States is expediting its departure from the Middle East, and Iran’s influence is growing, along with its self-confidence. That is the context of Pompeo’s visit and that, it seems, is also the main reason for the Kochavi-Gantz meeting, held at the height of faltering coalition talks and against the backdrop of unusual funding demands by the army.
Two dramatic events have occurred in the past month in the Middle East: the Iranian strike on Saudi oil facilities on September 14, and the phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on October 6. The United States has not responded to the deliberate attack, which inflicted major damage on its Saudi allies. So far only a punitive cyber strike, whose extent is unclear, has been launched against the Iranians. In addition to this, the U.S. president’s consent to remove the small American force from northeastern Syria paved the road for a heavy Turkish assault against the Kurds.
The thread that runs between these two events is a sharp decline in the willingness of the United States to commit troops and resources to the region. This has all been wrapped up in endless verbiage, which emerges a few times a day from the depths of Trump’s stream of consciousness. And yet the president’s bottom line is quite clear – he believes the time has come to put an end to what he calls “the endless wars” of America in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Iran’s closest neighbors, are especially worried about American powerlessness. But Israel also has cause for concern. The American withdrawal raises questions about the extent of Trump’s commitment to Israel when push comes to shove. And the attack in Saudi Arabia illustrated increasing Iranian daring, great operational sophistication and an impressive ability to act. It also necessitates changes in Israeli defense and intercept systems, which for years have been focused on a response to high-trajectory weapons (rockets and missiles) and not on the deceptive threat, close to the ground, of cruise missiles and drone attacks. In a first stage, more than 300 million shekels ($84.9 million) will be needed to quickly improve intercept batteries. In the future, this sum will grow.
Attempts to form a unity government have one main patron, President Reuven Rivlin. The IDF is not directly invested, but can be described as a secondary patron. Gantz certainly heard a chilling description from the IDF chief of staff on Wednesday of the changes in the region, along with an emphasis on the need for quick approval of the defense budget and the army’s multi-annual plan.
In the cabinet meeting last week, a need was presented for an annual addition of 4 billion shekels to the defense budget over the next 10 years. That more or less overlaps with the “IDF 2030” vision formulated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at the beginning of this year, before the most recent developments. So far, no decisions have been made. Gantz, is apparently more ready than his colleagues among Kahol Lavan leaders to consider creative compromises with Netanyahu on the way to a unity government. Security and economic circumstances may provide him with the reasons for this, certainly if there is another escalation of events in the Persian Gulf.
We should also pay attention to what was said Wednesday in Tehran. Last week, when the eyes of countries in the region were focused on events in northern Syria, a mysterious incident occurred off the coast of Saudi Arabia. It took the Iranians time to reach a conclusion as to what happened there. But on Wednesday, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission in Tehran said that Israel and Saudi Arabia were involved in the attack on the Iranian oil tanker that occurred after a series of similar attacks by Iran on tankers making their way to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In other words, the Iranian account with Israel is still open – and sooner or later an attempt might be made to close it.

Israeli Court Rules That Aramean Minority Can Choose Jewish or Arab Education
حكم قضائي في إسرائيل يعطي الأقلية الأرامية حق الإختيار بين المناهج التعليمية العربية والإسرائيلية
Shira Kadari-Ovadia/Haaretz/October 17/ 2019
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The Aramean minority in Israel was recognized as a nationality in 2014, also following a battle by local activist, until then the state considered Arameans to be Christian Arabs.
The Supreme Court has ruled that members of the Aramean minority in Israel are entitled to choose whether their children will attend a Jewish or an Arab school – and that the regional council in which they live is obligated to provide them with transportation in the event that the school they choose is far from them.
The ruling was handed down last month after an administrative appeal submitted by Shadi Halul, a central activist in the Aramean community, regarding his two children who attend the school in Kibbutz Sasa. The regional council in Jish (Gush Halav), where Khalul lives, refused to pay for transportation to the kibbutz school, maintaining that the children can attend the Arab school in the his village.
The Nazareth District Court decided about two years ago that the regional council is not obligated to provide transportation: Although the studies in Jish are conducted in Arabic and not in Aramaic, in any case the kibbutz school doesn’t teach in Aramaic either.
Now the Supreme Court has overturned the decision, ruling that the regional council is obligated to provide transportation to the Jewish school. The court did not decide regarding payment for transportation, but the council and the Education Ministry already decided at the start of the school year to subsidize it, prior to the ruling, which was handed down by Justice Neal Hendel supported by Justice Ofer Grosskopf. Justice George Kara supported the District Court decision. The ruling affects another 20 Aramean children who travel daily from Jish to Sasa.
In the appeal Halul claimed that the school in Jish is unsuitable for his son, because it doesn’t actively encourage service in the Israel Defense Forces or promote identification with the values of the State of Israel. This contradicts his values as a member of the Aramean people. The ruling that his son should attend the Arab school forces an Arab national identity on him. After the appeal, the Education Ministry joined Halul’s opinion, adding that an Aramean student should be allowed to decide which school suits him.
“The choice by the appellants – or other Aramean students – in favor of the state education system in Sasa is not a personal whim, but an insistence on the right to preserve and nurture their identity as members of a unique minority group, which has been recognized by the authorities and by professional entities,” wrote Hendel in his decision. “The choice to preserve Aramean identity, and to refrain from studies in an institution that promotes a competing Arab identity, is worthy of consideration as in other cases – and requires the local education authority to ensure the accessibility of the institution taking in the students.”
Hendel said that although the state school in Sasa does not have a unique Aramean identity, just because of the lack of educational institutions designated for members of the Aramean nation there must be sensitivity regarding their rights – and that an Arab identity should not be forced on those of them who believe that it will be easier for them to preserve their unique identity in the Hebrew-speaking state school system.
The Aramean minority in Israel was recognized as a nationality in 2014, also following a battle by Halul. Until then the state considered Arameans to be Christian Arabs. Then-Interior Minister Gideon Sa’ar ruled that “the fact of the existence of the Aramean nation is obvious, and that “regarding this nation all the conditions required to prove the existence of a nation exist,, including a shared historical legacy, religion, culture, origin and language.
The decision enabled citizens belonging to specific Christian groups (Maronite, Greek Orthodox, Syrian Orthodox et al) to register as Arameans. Only few requested to be registered as Arameans, but Halul claims that it’s because of the bureaucratic red tape involved in submitting such a request, and that the Israel Christian Aramaic Organization, which he founded, recognizes about 15,000 people who identify as Arameans.
The ruling is very important, because it means that the Supreme Court recognizes the rights of the Aramean minority. “I don’t want my children to attend a school that educates towards separatism from the State of Israel,” he told Haaretz. “It’s our basic right to educate our children according to our beliefs.”

What should the West do as UN arms embargo on Iran ends in 2020?
Behnam Ben Taleblu/Senior Fellow/Andrea Stricker/Research Fellow/ Radio Farda/October 17/2019
The Islamic Republic of Iran has consistently proven how much damage it can cause without having access to high-tech military equipment and formal arms markets. The past few months are indeed instructive. Under a slashed defense budget and outmatched in terms of regional military spending, Iran still managed to turn-up the heat without inviting kinetic reprisal.
Western powers and Saudi Arabia have concluded Iran was behind the attack on Saudi oil installations with drones and cruise missiles, used mines to damage tankers, seized ships in the Persian Gulf, shot down a U.S. drone over international waters, engaged in hostage diplomacy, escalated its nuclear program, and broadened the scope of mayhem in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen through its partners and proxies. Now imagine what improved Iranian military capabilities might mean for the future.
Next October, on the fifth anniversary of the Iran nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’s (JCPOA) so-called “Adoption Day,” an international embargo on military-related transfers to and from Iran will end. Before this happens, Washington can take action to extend the UN-based arms embargo, as well as reinforce its policy of sanctioning Iranian arms transfers. The sooner, the better.
The Islamic Republic has faced U.S. sanctions, including an arms embargo, since 1984 – the year Washington put Tehran on the “state sponsors of terrorism” list. These penalties helped impede Iran’s modernization, following the bloody 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, of military systems that used American technology. But starting in 2006, when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors voted to refer Tehran’s nuclear file to the UN Security Council (UNSC), the country was increasingly subject to multilateral sanctions, and eventually, a global ban on all imports and exports of arms and military-related equipment. These penalties were scaled back in 2015 as part of UNSC Resolution 2231, which codified the nuclear deal and set the five-year timeline for a complete lifting of the arms embargo.
The decision to relieve international pressure on Iran’s military-related procurement and proliferation functioned like a sweetener in the final stages of negotiations with Tehran. Notably, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the time of the negotiations, Gen. Martin Dempsey, categorically opposed any concession on military and arms exports. Yet Tehran insisted, so the five-year clock started ticking.
As the military embargo approaches its expiration date, Tehran has tightened military ties with powers hostile to Washington. Several high-level bilateral visits have occurred as Iran signed military agreements with Russia and China in the years since the JCPOA entered into force. The pacts cover strategic and military matters, and Iran reportedly weighs a future $10 billion deal to import Russian “T-90 tanks, artillery systems, planes and helicopters.” Just last month, Iran proclaimed that together with China and Russia, it plans to hold joint naval exercises in international waters.
Even though Russia and China have never totally abided by UNSC mandates, to date, they do not appear to have flagrantly violated the injunction against arms sales to Iran. Soon, though, there will be no reason for abstinence. And just because there has been no formal acquisitions since the JCPOA does not mean attempts at illicit procurement have ceased by Iran.
To be clear, removing UN restraints on imports of weapons does not mean that the Islamic Republic will become a major conventional military power overnight. Rather, the regime will likely take advantage to increase the lethality of its asymmetric and hybrid military threats.
One thing Iran might do is move to narrow the quantitative and qualitative gap between its ballistic and cruise missile systems through procurement from countries like Russia and China, with advanced cruise missile and Anti-Access/Area-Denial capabilities. Doing so, coupled with improving missile and air defense systems while simultaneously modernizing and growing select platforms – such as Iran’s Russian provided Kilo-class submarines – could be sufficient to make the Islamic Republic feel stronger and safer, thus underwriting further expansion and escalation.
Washington can play a major role in forestalling enhancements of Iran’s military systems and the deepening of its partnerships by making clear that it will enact secondary sanctions against any entity, whether Russian, Chinese, or otherwise, that exports military items to Iran. The threat of U.S. sanctions has a significant effect on both state and private entities’ willingness to do business, as was recently witnessed in the case of a Chinese energy giant and the Iranian gas sector. Washington will also need to think of clever ways to prevent Iran from using funds held in escrow accounts abroad as a line of credit against such purchases, or simply bartering oil for weapons.
Iran’s arms exports are an altogether different matter. Several UNSC resolutions contain arms transfer bans that specifically refer to regional hotspots, such as Lebanon and Yemen. Iran has consistently violated the letter and spirit of those resolutions through its low-level proliferation of systems that enable its allies to grow in influence and live to fight another day.
For instance, Lebanese Hezbollah has gone from a band of Iran-backed militants in the Levant to masters of the Lebanese state, are battle-hardened from the Syrian war, and now in possession of increasingly precise munitions that threaten Israel. Iran’s arms transfers that violate resolution 2231, be it to the Houthis in Yemen or Shiite militias in Iraq, are only the latest measures of the same problem.
In addition to refusing to observe the end of the arms embargo and sanctioning those that don’t, Washington will need to work with local partners to better erect a legal architecture, and later act on through interdictions, the supply and sale of any weapons systems from Iran or territory controlled by its proxy to other actors.
More broadly, the U.S. desperately needs to work with its European allies to get a better and more comprehensive agreement in place that addresses not just the nuclear issue, but the regional security situation. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom all voiced their support for a broader deal after they concluded that Iran was behind the drone and missile attacks against Saudi Arabia. That moment of convergence in the trans-Atlantic position should be capitalized on. Washington needs to roll this sentiment into a coalition of countries that refuse to recognize the lifting of the military embargo and support a replacement.
With increased capabilities and more accurate equipment, the threat from Tehran will only grow. Washington and the international community should not sit idly by as the Islamic Republic capitalizes on an international own-goal from 2015 and prepares a shopping spree for 2020.
*Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) where he focuses on Iranian security and political issues.
*Andrea Stricker is a research fellow at FDD where she conducts research on nonproliferation, Iran, North Korea, and other security policy topics.

Iran to limit inspectors' access to its nuclear facilities
Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor/The Guardian//October 17/2019
Iran has justified the step by step reduction in its commitment by pointing to the EU’s inability to make good on its promises to increase trade between Iran and Europe. In July, Iran abandoned two of its commitments under the deal by allowing its stockpile of enriched uranium to exceed the 300kg limit and breaching the cap on the purity of its uranium stocks.
The French foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, earlier this month told the French parliament’s foreign affairs committee it was up to Iran to pick up the proposals his country sought to broker at the UN general assembly in New York last month.
He said: “We consider that these initiatives, which didn’t succeed, are still on the table and it is up to Iran and the United States to seize [them] in a relatively short amount of time because Iran has announced new measures to reduce its commitments to the Vienna accord [JCPOA] in November.”
Tensions between France and Iran have risen after the Iranian intelligence agencies captured an Iranian exile based in Paris, Rouhollah Zam, who had led a media campaign against the government. He was captured in Jordan this week on his way to Baghdad.
France has also disclosed that Iran has detained Roland Marchal, a senior researcher from Sciences Po University in Paris, since June.
The tensions came as the Iranian foreign minister, Javad Zarif, said one or more foreign powers were behind the missile attack on an Iranian tanker in the Red Sea last week.
Despite the bellicose rhetoric, Iran is exploring if there is room for mediation with Saudi Arabia, after Donald Trump’s withdrawal from Syria and his refusal to take military action against Iran in the wake of the September missile attacks on the Aramco Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities.
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The hasty U.S. pullback from Syria is a searing moment in America’s withdrawal from the Middle East
Liz Sly/Washington Post//October 17/2019
BEIRUT — The blow to America’s standing in the Middle East was sudden and unexpectedly swift. Within the space of a few hours, advances by Turkish troops in Syria this week had compelled the U.S. military’s Syrian Kurdish allies to switch sides, unraveled years of U.S. Syria policy and recalibrated the balance of power in the Middle East.
As Russian and Syrian troops roll into vacated towns and U.S. bases, the winners are counting the spoils.
The withdrawal delivered a huge victory to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who won back control of an area roughly amounting to a third of the country almost overnight. It affirmed Moscow as the arbiter of Syria’s fate and the rising power in the Middle East. It sent another signal to Iran that Washington has no appetite for the kind of confrontation that its rhetoric suggests and that Iran’s expanded influence in Syria is now likely to go unchallenged.
It sent a message to the wider world that the United States is in the process of a disengagement that could resonate beyond the Middle East, said Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
Trump defends Syria withdrawal, says there is 'a lot of sand' countries can 'play with'
“There’s a sense that the long goodbye has begun and that the long goodbye from the Middle East could become a long goodbye from Asia and everywhere else,” he said.
Images shared on social media underscored the indignity of the retreat. Departing U.S. troops in sophisticated armored vehicles passed Syrian army soldiers riding in open-top trucks on a desert highway. An embedded Russian journalist took selfies on the abandoned U.S. base in Manbij, where U.S. forces had fought alongside their Kurdish allies to drive out the Islamic State in 2015.
“Only yesterday they were here, and now we are here,” said the journalist, panning the camera around the intact infrastructure, including a radio tower and a button-powered traffic-control gate that he showed was still functioning.
Inside northern Syria, where Kurds defeated ISIS but now face threat from Turkey
Before U.S. troops pulled out of northern Syria, clearing the way for a Turkish invasion, The Post went there and met Kurds who feared the looming assault. (Joyce Lee/The Washington Post)
“Let’s see how they lived and what they ate,” he said, before ducking into one of the tents and filming the soldiers’ discarded snacks.
On Arab news channels, coverage switched from footage of jubilant Syrian troops to scenes of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s lavish receptions by the monarchs of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Washington’s most vital Arab allies in the Persian Gulf. The visits had been long planned, but the timing gave them the feel of a victory lap.
“This has left a bad taste for all of America’s friends and allies in the region, not only among the Kurds,” said a former regional minister who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to not embarrass his government, an American ally. “Many will now be looking for new friends. The Russians don’t abandon their allies. They fight for them. And so do the Iranians.”
It was the manner of the withdrawal, hastily called amid chaos on the battlefield as Turkish forces pushed deep into Syria, that gave the event such impact in the region, analysts said. Few had anticipated that the most advanced military in the world would make such a scrambled and hasty departure, even after President Trump signaled he would not endorse a war on behalf of the Kurds against a U.S. NATO ally.
Less than 48 hours before the withdrawal announcement, U.S. Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had given assurances that the troops would remain indefinitely, standing by their Kurdish partners to continue to hunt down the Islamic State.
But the Turks’ capture Sunday of a key highway that served as the U.S. troops’ main supply line revealed the fragility of a mission that had narrowly focused on the Islamic State fight while neglecting regional dynamics, including the depth of Turkish animosity to the Kurdish militia with which the United States had teamed up.
‘I can’t even look at the atrocities’: U.S. troops say Trump’s Syria withdrawal betrayed an ally
For many in the region, Trump’s abandonment of Syria caps a long erosion of trust that began under the administration of President Barack Obama. His decision not to stand by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who was toppled during the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011, is frequently contrasted with Russia’s unwavering support for Assad after he faced popular unrest just a few weeks later, Arab officials say.
Obama’s retreat from his “red line” ultimatum on the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government, after hundreds died in an attack outside Damascus in 2013, further called into question Washington’s credibility, they say. His nuclear deal with Iran, which eased economic sanctions in return for restrictions on its nuclear activities, was seen by some as a capitulation to Iran and a betrayal of U.S. allies in the Middle East who were not consulted and were more concerned about Iran’s pursuit of ballistic missiles and regional expansionism.
Trump’s election to the presidency was welcomed by the United States’ closest allies as a chance to reset the clock, but he, too, has disappointed, with his unpredictability and seemingly erratic decision-making. His decision not to confront Iran after it shot down an American drone in June jolted Gulf Arab leaders, who began to wonder whether decades of U.S. security guarantees could be counted on in the event of a real crisis with Iran.
Americans cannot complain about any loss of influence in the region as a result of their actions, said Mohammed al-Sulami, writing in the Saudi Arabian Arab News outlet on Wednesday.
“Washington actively opted for this policy, having chosen a strategy of withdrawal and retrenchment,” he wrote. “The U.S. has no right to condemn the region’s countries if they choose to forge relations with other powers to protect their interests.”
The abrupt departure from northeastern Syria, Ibish said, has further shredded any U.S. credibility that had survived the disengagement of the Obama era and the capriciousness of the Trump one. The United States remains overwhelmingly the dominant military power in the Middle East, with around 50,000 troops deployed in the region and a level of technological superiority that will ensure allies covet American weapons and support for years.
But friends and enemies alike are starting to suspect that Trump’s unpredictability is less a cause than a consequence of a broader American reluctance to engage with the world, Ibish said. He dates that to the trauma of the bloody, costly and ultimately unsatisfying wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“People are asking: Could the United States not only be an unreliable power, but could it actually be a weak power as well?” he said. “Not because it lacks the capability but because it lacks the will.”
There was therefore a sense of inevitability to the sudden American departure from Syria, analysts said. Washington appears to have underestimated Turkey’s determination to prevent the emergence of a Kurdish statelet on its border and overestimated the limited leverage offered by the presence of 1,000 U.S. troops. The small U.S. presence in Syria had big intentions but only limited means. The goal, as articulated by State Department officials, was for the troops to remain there to stamp out the remnants of the Islamic State and to provide leverage in seeking a Syrian peace settlement that would impose restraints on Assad’s power, safeguard Kurdish interests and limit Iran’s influence.
The Kurds also had overestimated their clout with an American president who frequently asserts his determination to disentangle the United States from Middle East wars, said Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut.
“The Kurds got carried away with their expectations and believed the U.S. would behave differently to all the foreign powers over the past 150 years,” he said. “They discovered that the U.S. was no different.”
Turkey rebuffs U.S. calls for truce in Syria, demands Kurdish fighters disarm
U.S withdrawal, Turkish offensive in Syria send a new wave of refugees to Iraq
Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world

Israel must help its allies the Kurds
اوري هاينتر/يديعوت أحرونوت: يجب على إسرائيل أن تساعد حلفائها الأكراد
Uri Heitner/Ynetnews/October 17/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79560/%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%87%d8%a7%d9%8a%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%b1-%d9%8a%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%b9%d9%88%d8%aa-%d8%a3%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%86%d9%88%d8%aa-%d9%8a%d8%ac%d8%a8-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%a5%d8%b3%d8%b1/
Opinion: Jerusalem should be at the head of a worldwide political struggle against Turkey over its invasion of Syria and provide any humanitarian help it can to the Kurds; furthermore, the U.S. abandonment of the Kurdish people should be a lesson in Trump's fickleness
The Kurdish people are a Middle Eastern minority that has endured centuries of persecution. Israel has long seen them as an ally and has provided arms and training to its military organizations. Now the Kurdish people are under a savage and brutal attack by Turkish dictator Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his armed forces and Israel must stand up for its friends. The Kurds, allies of the West and the U.S. in their fight against the Islamic State, have been abandoned by the Americans, and are standing alone against this intolerable force.
In Turkey's past, during the Ottoman Empire, is the Armenian genocide - and it's doubtful if Erdogan has any qualms about carrying out similar actions.
When an anti-Semitic dictator who is an enemy of Israel viciously attacks our friends – what are we to do? Israel must not militarily intervene in Syria. It is not a super power and it is not its job to police the Middle East. If anything, Israel has since its creation been embroiled in a hard and bloody struggle. Today the greatest threat is Iran, faced on three separate fronts - Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip - as well as terrorism in the West Bank. As a result, Israel certainly cannot afford to fight a non-defensive war. It has already done so once on behalf of the Lebanese Christians, and that did not end well, to say the least.
But Israel should be at the head of a worldwide political struggle against Turkey and for the Kurds. Israel should be raising the issue at the United Nations and at every other international institution – and move towards sanctions against Turkey.
Israel's ambassadors all over the world should send a message to their host countries calling upon them to condemn Turkey.
Israel should call for direct action such as severing diplomatic ties with Turkey. Furthernore, Israel is more than able as a humanitarian country to provide any help it can to the Kurds. This Turkish invasion in Syria would have not occurred if it were not for the Americans abandoning the Kurds to their own fate.
The U.S. has shown itself to be a weak ally, a fact that should spur Israel to rethink its dependence on it, particularly while Donald Trump occupies the White House. During his election campaign, Trump voiced two contradictory slogans: "America First" and "Make America Great Again".
"America First" is the traditional mantra of isolationists since the start of the 20th century, although America's greatness was reached at its peak might as a superpower. The abandonment of the Kurds is the embodiment of "America First", all while Trump continues to insult the Kurdish people, including faulting them for not participating in the Allies' Normandy landings in World War II.
Trump keeps projecting himself as the opposite of his predecessor Barack Obama, but he is merely a continuation of the U.S. policy of turning its back on its allies in the Middle East. Obama turned away from former Egyptian ruler Hosni Mubarak and on Israel with his appeasement policy towards Iran and the Iran nuclear deal. Trump is needlessly leaving the Kurds to their fate all while continuing his appeasement policy towards the Turkish dictator. Although Trump is a big friend of Israel, a friend that has made unprecedented decisions for Israel's sake, he is fickle and unexpected in his mindset and could turn on it at a moment's notice.The lesson Israel should take from the Kurds is that it cannot trust anyone but itself and should definitely not compromise on any part of its security.

Rouhani’s six years as president prove he is far from moderate
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 17/2019
Hassan Rouhani has been president of Iran for more than six years. The Islamic Republic introduced him as a moderate clergyman and politician, and some Western media outlets, scholars and politicians bought the idea that Rouhani and his technocrat team were indeed opposed to the hard-liners and that they would be a benevolent force for improving human rights in Iran by reforming the theocratic establishment. A six-year period should be adequate to analyze and examine the performance of the Iranian president and his Moderation and Development Party.
Reports and data show that human rights violations have not only continued under Rouhani’s watch but have increased to an alarming level. The rate of executions has increased dramatically, with the Iranian regime currently ranked first in the world when it comes to the number of executions per capita. It is ranked second, after China, in regards to the total number of people executed.
In the first two years of Rouhani’s presidency, more people were executed than under the eight years of his hard-line predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. During Ahmadinejad’s two-term presidency, some 827 executions took place, while almost 1,200 people were executed in the first two years of Rouhani’s tenure. In Rouhani’s first six years in office, a total of nearly 3,800 people were executed, according to the Iran Human Rights Monitor. The executions have included juveniles, women and individuals from ethnic and religious minority groups, including Ahwazi Arabs, Kurds and Sunnis. Iran’s Penal Code allows executions to be carried out by many different methods, including hanging, stoning and firing squad. In order to impose fear on society, many people were hanged in public, including 38 juveniles, 93 women and 91 political prisoners.
This brings us to Rouhani’s other notorious record: Iran has become a leading executioner of children, as the number of juveniles put to death increased in 2018. UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation in Iran Javaid Rehman said: “In 2018, there were seven reported cases of executions of child offenders. There are currently an estimated 90 individuals on death row who were all under the age of 18 at the time of their alleged offenses. Among the most recent cases, on 25 April 2019, two 17-year-old children, Mehdi Sohrabifar and Amin Sedaghat, were executed.” The two were reportedly forced to confess while they were tortured.
Although Iran has ratified the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, Rouhani’s government has made no effort to alter the country’s Penal Code, which allows girls as young as nine to be executed. Iran has become a leading executioner of children, as the number of juveniles put to death increased in 2018.
In February, Amnesty International called on Iran to spare three Kurdish boys, Mohammed Kalhori, Barzan Nasrollahzadeh, and Shayan Saeedpour, from imminent execution. Saleh Higazi, Amnesty’s deputy Middle East and North Africa director, said in a statement: “The Iranian authorities must act quickly to save these young men’s lives. Failing to stop their execution would be another abhorrent assault on children's rights by Iran.”
Rouhani has also appointed or promoted several people who were reportedly involved in egregious and wanton human rights violations, such as the 1988 mass execution of more than 30,000 prisoners. For example, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, who was a representative of the Ministry of Intelligence at the notorious Evin Prison and was implicated in the 1988 atrocities, served as Rouhani’s justice minister from 2013 to 2017. And Ebrahim Raisi, a former public prosecutor who was also implicated, was made Chief Justice of Iran in March.
Under Rouhani’s presidency, crackdowns on the Iranian population have also escalated. These include censorship of the media, restrictions on journalists, arbitrary arrests, inhumane punishments, the jamming of foreign satellite television channels, and the detention of human rights defenders and political activists. Many prominent human rights lawyers, including Nasrin Sotoudeh and her husband Reza Khandan, who defended or supported social movements such as opposition to the forced wearing of the hijab, have been unfairly prosecuted. To suppress opposition, vague charges are often brought by the Islamic Republic’s judiciary system or the Islamic Revolutionary Court. Examples include “waging war against God,” spreading “moharebeh” (corruption on Earth) and endangering the country’s national security. These charges can be stretched to allow for simple acts such as criticizing the supreme leader to become crimes punishable by death.
The use of cruel and inhumane punishments is also on the rise. According to Amnesty International’s 2018 report, the use of various forms of torture, such as amputation and flogging, has been increasing at an alarming rate. One example included tying a man to a tree in public and flogging him 80 times.
During the six-year presidency of Rouhani, the human rights situation in Iran has deteriorated substantially. Rouhani is not a moderate but a regime loyalist.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Turkish attack in Syria a curse for the region
Randa Takieddine/Arab News/October 17/2019
The Turkish incursion in northeastern Syria, which aims at creating a buffer zone for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to get rid of the Kurds, has long been his strategy. But Erdogan also wants to send millions of Syrian refugees from Turkey to this area.
This military operation raises many questions in a troubled region. There is already the ongoing war that has torn Syria apart and there is an unstable Iraq, where Iran tries to prevail through its allies. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has the upper hand on foreign policy thanks to its control over decisions of war and peace against Israel and those who oppose its internal and regional defense strategies.
At this point, it is still not known how long Turkish forces intend to carry on this operation. The few US forces that were in this area before President Donald Trump decided to pull them out were a warning to stop Turkey from attacking. Their withdrawal — which was decided by Trump after a phone conversation with Erdogan — is considered by the Kurds and their allies as a betrayal that will have a dramatic impact on the region and the Western world too.
From a humanitarian point of view, there is the fear of a massacre of the Kurds, as the world is aware of Ankara’s hatred for them. But there are also fears of a possible new population displacement, with civilians fleeing Syria’s northeast in great numbers. The Kurdish fighters abandoning their war against Daesh, and possibly their prisons, make the terror group’s resurgence almost certain. What impact the Damascus regime’s support for the Kurds will have remains to be seen.
The US decision to withdraw its forces from northern Syria was part of Trump’s commitment to “bring the boys back home.” A total American withdrawal from Syria would mean an open invitation to Russia in this part of the Middle East. Vladimir Putin has an interest in getting Turkey away from NATO and closer to Russia to reinforce the Astana partners in the Syria peace process.
Iran has criticized the Turkish incursion, but for its own reasons. It does not want to share control of Syria with Turkey. At the same time, Iran, which also has a Kurdish population, similarly does not want an autonomous region for the Kurds.
The Turkish attack on the SDF, coupled with a highly possible total US withdrawal from Syria, could lead to a partitioning of the country, with different areas under the respective control of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, and Turkey.
Lebanon’s deteriorating economy will increase Hezbollah’s grip on the country’s foreign policy. This is already the case, although on occasion it is limited by Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his allies.
The American betrayal of the Kurds could provide encouragement for Hezbollah’s Christian allies in Lebanon — the Free Patriotic Movement of President Michel Aoun and his son-in-law, the Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil — to get even closer to Hezbollah and Syria. Bassil’s ambition to succeed his father-in-law as president could see him bet on the alliance with Hezbollah rather than getting closer to the US, despite the threat of more American sanctions on his pro-Iranian partner. The danger of isolating Lebanon from the Gulf countries will thus grow. Their financial support for Beirut has already dwindled dramatically because of Hezbollah.
A total American withdrawal from Syria would mean an open invitation to Russia in this part of the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Aoun and Bassil might be tempted to copy the Turkish plan and try to push Syrian refugees from Lebanon into northern Syria and the “safe zone.” The Lebanese president could even let Hezbollah do the job for him. Aoun and Bassil have been pressing the West, and Europe in particular, to help them get their Syrian refugees to leave Lebanon immediately because of their economic weight on the country. European leaders, namely French President Emmanuel Macron, have argued this is not possible as long as their safe return is not secured. Aoun and Bassil don’t want to hear such arguments and Hezbollah supports their position.
The Russians claimed they have a plan to get the refugees back to Syria, but the Russian plan is empty. Will Hezbollah do the job for its Christian friends? This is not certain since Assad does not favor the return of hundreds of thousands of Syrian Sunnis to his Alawite-controlled country.
Finally, the Turkish military operation and departure of US troops from northern Syria would free Iran to complete its uninterrupted highway from Tehran to Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut — a fact that Kurdistan Democratic Party leader Masoud Barzani had warned about during a meeting with former French President Francois Hollande a few years ago.
The latest developments are bad news not only for the entire Middle East, but also for the West, which is terrified of a possible return of Daesh and attacks in their cities. Erdogan’s move and Trump’s Twitter diplomacy are pushing part of the Levant under the wing of two extremist regimes: Aggressive Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood-inspired Turkey. This is a curse for future generations in the region.
*Randa Takieddine is a Lebanese journalist based in France.

Should security trump civil liberties in social media age?
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/October 17/2019
The recent attack on a synagogue in Halle, which was live-streamed on Amazon’s Twitch service, has again brought to the fore the discussion about social media and hate speech. Members of the Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism, whose members include Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Twitter, were apparently collaborating to take the video down. Alas, it still aired, and for too long.If Halle and the attacks on a synagogue in Pennsylvania and a mosque in Christchurch have taught us anything, it is that governments should place just as much emphasis on monitoring hate speech and communications “traffic” from right-wing extremists as they do from Islamist or left-wing groups.
The internet and social media in particular have made horizontal connectivity easy, allowing forces for good like nongovernmental organizations, self-help groups and democratic activists to connect freely and inexpensively across borders. However, they have given the same opportunity to the forces for evil — terrorist groups of all colors.
Hate speech has become a big problem because people feel less inhibited by convention or political correctness when they are on Twitter and other social media platforms. People will say and advocate outrageous statements when they can do so as the faceless to the faceless. This relative anonymity takes down psychological barriers and creates an apparent safe zone for the airing of raw emotions. The problem with that is that hate speech can spread and recruit further “haters.”
Extremist groups on the right and the left are masters at instrumentalizing the web for recruiting purposes. Daesh did so, as did neo-Nazis.
This brings what tech companies and governments do into sharp focus. After Christchurch and Halle, they used “hashing” technology, which reduces content to code in order for it to be spotted and removed automatically. That sounds good, but unfortunately the technology does not kick in quickly enough.
The overarching problem is how much monitoring by the state is permissible in a free society.
Security authorities have insisted for some time that they need the capability to monitor conversations on encrypted services such as WhatsApp. Tech companies and civil rights activists argue that their encryption services are important to safeguard the writer’s privacy and safety, especially in more “repressive” regimes. They list Hong Kong as a prime example: Demonstrators there organize their demonstrations via WhatsApp precisely because the encrypted technology allows them to remain undetected by the authorities. The same holds true in other countries, which is why WhatsApp is not on the menu under several of the world’s more authoritarian regimes. The question here is where do civil liberties end and where is it important for the state to monitor and intercept communications early? Another issue is what tech companies can do to stop the live streaming of terrorist activities and other atrocities. Where does the responsibility of tech companies kick in, especially as the time lag and efficiency of hashing technology is still a problem?
There are no easy answers, especially for governments in liberal democracies. Protecting both civil liberties and their citizens’ security are in their purview. The discussion in Germany last week was wide-ranging and did not come up with any concrete solutions. It was emotionally charged because anti-Semitism is on the rise. Many Jews fear for their safety once again — 74 years after the end of Nazi terror and the Holocaust. This must be unacceptable in anybody’s book. Extremist groups on the right and the left are masters at instrumentalizing the web for recruiting purposes.
The tech companies have responsibilities toward the state as well as their users. Hacking incidents and the sale of customer data are big and related subjects. Beefing up their monitoring capabilities will also augment their cost base. The latter should not be an issue, but the Facebooks, Googles and Amazons of this world are run for profit. They also face increased scrutiny on their tax base from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which will further erode their profitability further down the road. It is never an easy issue when civil liberties and free speech clash with security, because it is the task of the state to guarantee both. One can argue that security trumps the right of secrecy in an encrypted conversation. It is clear, however, that the state and the tech companies need to do better in monitoring terrorist chatter from all sides, taking down hate speech, and ensuring no further attacks are streamed. Resources and costs must be of secondary concern. This is a debate that will be with us for some time to come. The internet and social media have brought us many good things, but also this particular dilemma.
*Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macroeconomist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources

Democratic candidates need to focus on each other, not Trump
Ellen R. Wald/Arab News/October 17/2019
American voters must be wondering if the Democratic candidates for president realize that they have to compete against each other before one of them wins the opportunity to take on President Donald Trump. The Democratic Party held another presidential debate on Tuesday. It lasted almost three hours, during which the 12 politicians on stage took turns attacking Trump, a man who was not there and will not be on the ballots for the next vote.
At the start of February, voters in Iowa and New Hampshire will be able to select their favored candidate to win the Democratic Party’s nomination. Votes will continue, state by state, into the spring. At some point during this primary season, likely a few months into 2020, we will have a good idea who will face Trump, a Republican. It is not until the Democratic National Convention in the summer that the nominee will be formally chosen and have the opportunity to face Trump in the general election in November.
At the moment, each of the 12 candidates who were on the stage on Tuesday is competing against the others. None of them are competing against Trump — yet. However, they seem incapable of realizing this.
Continuing their behavior from the earlier debates, the Democratic candidates generally refused to attack each other or distinguish themselves in significant ways. There were some minor policy disagreements and a few of the candidates challenged Sen. Elizabeth Warren on her refusal to admit that she would increase tax bills for the middle class. Warren was a target, in part, because her refusal to admit this has become almost absurd and, in part, because she is a frontrunner that they want to bring down.
There were also policy disputes about gun control. All of the Democratic candidates support stricter laws concerning gun ownership, but a couple of them ridiculed and criticized the plan of former congressman Robert “Beto” O’Rourke. He wants to seize certain weapons from law-abiding Americans and several opponents criticized the practicality of this, questioning whether it could be done in accordance with the US Constitution.
For the most part, though, there were few differences between the policy plans of the dozen candidates. More importantly, there was little contention or competition. Many of the candidates have serious and obvious liabilities, but their opponents need to highlight these problems on a major stage. If they don’t, Trump surely will when he faces off against one of them.
Warren may have been challenged on her health care plan, but none of her opponents brought up her long history of being caught lying. Just recently, she repeatedly claimed that she had been fired as a teacher in the 1970s because she was pregnant. It turns out this story is contradicted both by her own account, which she gave on video 12 years ago, and by the public record. In the past, she was embarrassingly caught in a years-long lie that she was a descendant of Cherokee Indians (a Native American tribe).
Former Vice President Joe Biden also has recent scandals that no one wanted to discuss. The moderators asked him very briefly about recent news that his son was on the board of a Ukrainian gas company while Biden served under President Barack Obama. However, none of Biden’s opponents challenged him on his role in this scandal or on his son’s position on the boards of a Chinese company and the passenger railroad company in the US. None of them asked Biden to explain why his son flew with him on an official US trip to China while Biden served as the Obama administration’s point man for China. They did not ask how Biden’s son reportedly came home from China with a business deal worth more than $1 billion. Even though there may be corruption to uncover, none of Biden’s opponents used it.
Many of the candidates have serious and obvious liabilities, but their opponents need to highlight these problems on a major stage.
No one challenged Sen. Bernie Sanders on the possible hypocrisy of his claims to be a “democratic socialist” and his status as a millionaire with three houses. Sanders’ opponents did not push him on his health and fitness to lead the country following a heart attack just two weeks ago.
The Democratic candidates did not want to compete against each other. They only wanted to fight Trump. Every question and every policy debate quickly devolved into an attack on the president. They repeatedly criticized his leadership of the economy, his foreign policy and his relationship with Congress. Multiple candidates claimed he was “divisive” and had done things that were “illegal.” When the moderators asked about the power of big tech companies, two candidates managed to focus on the issue, but the third to speak, hedge fund manager Tom Steyer, launched another attack on Trump, even though he is irrelevant to the subject.
These candidates, especially those lingering at the bottom of the pack, should soon realize that they are facing other Democrats, not the president. Right now, they are all running the wrong race — and it seems the Democratic Party’s voters might like a tough candidate who can attack current opponents and show that he or she can eventually do the same to Trump.
*Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D. is a historian and author of “Saudi, Inc.” She is the president of Transversal Consulting and also teaches Middle East history and policy at Jacksonville University. Twitter: @EnergzdEconomy
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

Another Geographic Detail is Drawn by the Sponsors of the Syrian Tragedy
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 17/2019
One sure truth about the Syrian tragedy that is ongoing since 2011; or perhaps since the fall of President Amin al-Hafez in 1966, has been that the only static is change. ‘Greater Syria’, not only the current Syrian entity of 1943, has known diversity since the beginning of documented history. In fact, just as diversity became part of its identity, the latter has been shaped by foreign invasions, occupations and annexations to Eastern and Western empires of all identities, creeds and sizes.
Very few areas in the ‘Old World’ witnessed continuous movements, and successions of kingdoms, empires and states as did ‘The Fertile Crescent’ that extends from the Zagros Mountains to the east and the Mediterranean Sea to the west, with its peak in northern Syria between the Hakkari and Taurus Mountains.
Nationalism is relatively a new political phenomenon; indeed, there is a wide disagreement on its definition, more so, when being mixed up with terms like ‘homeland’ or ‘civilization’, or when linked to religions and languages. Even in the West, different words mean different things depending on how they are related to certain cases and various political phenomena.
In such confusion, we encounter developments like the ones taking place inside northern Syria’s borders with Turkey east of the Euphrates; whereby views diverge regardless of ethical and humanitarian yardsticks.
There is nothing new in saying that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan holds ideological and nationalistic beliefs that push him to reclaiming what were around 100 years ago, ‘territories of the Ottoman Caliphate’. The fact of the matter is that Erdogan does not regard himself an ‘heir’ to Mustafa Kemal (Ataturk)’s secular Turkey, as much as a custodian of the religious ‘legitimacy’ and Sunni ‘authority’ in Turkey’s Ottoman history. This mixture between hankering to the old imperial Ottoman dream and the supreme authority to the world’s Sunnis – who make up between 75 to 80 percent of all Muslims – gives him the right, as far as he is concerned, to intervene wherever he finds in his interest to do so.
On the other hand, while the vast majority of the Kurds are Sunni Muslims, so would supposedly be in the same camp with Ankara, ‘nationalist’ affinities suggest otherwise; thus, making the virtual ally an actual foe. Now, it is worth reiterating that one of the very few points the ‘historic enemies’ the Turks and the Iranians, see eye to eye is preventing any attempt to establish a large and independent Kurdish state; as such a state would threaten the current ethnically-diverse entities of Turkey and Iran. In truth, wise Kurds have always understood this reality, and have behaved realistically, patiently and cautiously, until such time that circumstances change.
The Arabs too, have always had an ambiguous position towards Kurdish nationalism and the dream of a Kurdish ‘homeland’. However, the Arab countries where Kurds live either were diverse empires, such as the Umayyad, Abbasid and Fatimid Caliphates, or became part of non-Arab diverse empires, such as the Ottoman and Safavid states.
This meant that there was no reason for friction or existential animosity, perhaps until the mid- 20th century, when a certain strain of Arab nationalism was reluctant to feel the sensitivities of non-Arab minorities.
Today, in addition to Turkish attempts to take control of the Kurdish-majority Syrian border areas, there is a blatant Iranian hegemony over Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, as well as parts of Palestine and Yemen. With meaningless ‘consumerist’ jargon aside, Iran would be quite happy with Turkey’s operations against Kurdish pockets in north and northeast Syria; because, a- it has its own grand plan, and b- because it has its own calculations of the costs, and where its interests lie.
This dual talent Tehran possesses, does not exist in the Arab mind, where there are no grand plans, and no agreed upon calculations. Furthermore, although, the current operations are taking place inside what still officially is an Arab country, there is no strategic Arab approach, which would appraise their nature, scope, dimensions and potential results, far from parochial and spiteful considerations.
Some of the Syrian Kurds were wrong when, soon after the Syrian Uprising, separated their own priorities from those of the rest of the Syrian Opposition. This of course happened before others undermined and destroyed the Uprising from within. Some hotheaded and suspect Kurdish elements began to talk about and work for the Kurdish ‘State of Rojava’ in northern Syria, publishing its maps and changing the names of its cities and towns. They also embarked on joining the bulk of ‘Rojava’ with the Afrin enclave in the northwest taking over in the process the Arab-inhabited northern areas of Raqqa province. All this was being done, while patriotic and rational Kurdish elements were still convinced that the aim was an independent, sovereign, non-factional non-sectarian Syria, where all Syrians would coexist peacefully and equally under the law.
In the meantime, the leaderships of both Turkey and Iran moved, through the nine years of Syria’s uprising, from sponsoring the two rival camps to mutual agreement and liaison with Russia.
Iran, which initially accused Turkey of aiding and abetting the ‘Takfiri extremists’ ended up as its partner in the ‘Astana Talks Initiative’; and Turkey, which had initially threatened that ‘it would not stand idly’ while the Assad regime resorted to suppression, forgot about Iran’s sectarian militias and Moscow’s role, and the plight of the millions of refugees, and struck a deal with those who displaced them! Finally, behind the scene, there is the US.
Washington, for years, has had Tehran and its ‘henchman’ the Assad regime on its list of ‘sponsors of terrorism’; yet, under the pretext of fighting ISIS, it turned a blind eye to Iran’s expansion throughout the region during Barack Obama’s presidency; and now abandoning the ISIS-fighting Kurds, and tacitly accepting that the Assad regime remains and keeps most of its territories under Russian and Iranian protection.
Everybody, great and small, has interests and strategies, while we, the Arabs, only have reactions; which is the most worrying sign for the future.
Despite the fact that our regional neighbors Israel, Iran and Turkey, are suffering from genuine problems, thanks to their unified decision and sufficient internal consensus, they have all been capable of ‘exporting’ their problems outside their borders. Unfortunately, the situation is different in the Arab world, and the Arab reading of the region’s future is both immature and inadequate.