English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese,
Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 16/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.october16.20.htm
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2006
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Bible Quotations For today
When the disciples saw him walking on the
lake, they were terrified, saying, ‘It is a ghost!’ And they cried out in fear.
But immediately Jesus spoke to them and said, ‘Take heart, it is I; do not be
afraid
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew
14/22-33: “Immediately he made the disciples get into the boat and go on ahead
to the other side, while he dismissed the crowds. And after he had dismissed the
crowds, he went up the mountain by himself to pray. When evening came, he was
there alone, but by this time the boat, battered by the waves, was far from the
land, for the wind was against them. And early in the morning he came walking
towards them on the lake. But when the disciples saw him walking on the lake,
they were terrified, saying, ‘It is a ghost!’ And they cried out in fear. But
immediately Jesus spoke to them and said, ‘Take heart, it is I; do not be
afraid.’ Peter answered him, ‘Lord, if it is you, command me to come to you on
the water.’ He said, ‘Come.’ So Peter got out of the boat, started walking on
the water, and came towards Jesus. But when he noticed the strong wind, he
became frightened, and beginning to sink, he cried out, ‘Lord, save me!’ Jesus
immediately reached out his hand and caught him, saying to him, ‘You of little
faith, why did you doubt?’ When they got into the boat, the wind ceased. And
those in the boat worshipped him, saying, ‘Truly you are the Son of God.’”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on October 15-16/2020
MoPH: 1550 new coronavirus cases, 2 deaths
US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
Schenker Meets Lebanese Officials after Israel-Lebanon Talks
Berri meets Schenker, UN's Kubis, British ambassador
Jumblatt tackles developments with Schenker
Report: Schenker to Meet Aoun Friday
Report: Aoun Did not Veto Hariri’s Re-designation
Lebanon: Aoun Delays Parliamentary Consultations to Resolve Christian Obstacle
Lebanon: New Withdrawal Limits on Local Currency Stir Confusion
Ferzli: I Expect Hariri to Maintain Majority Thursday
Geagea Again Calls for Early Parliamentary Elections
Lebanon's Annus Horribilis
In Rudderless Lebanon, Revolutionaries Drift Apart
Setbacks and Subtle Victories: One Year of Lebanon Protests
Lebanon-Israel maritime talks do not have to stop at the border/Hanin Ghaddar/Al
Arabiya/October 15/2020
October 17, Lebanon’s Path to Salvation/Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al-Awsat/October,
15/2020
A Chance For Reform in Lebanon/Hussein Ibish/Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 15/2020
Lebanon is being forced to relive its traumas/Kareem Shaheen/The
National/October 15/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
October 15-16/2020
Video from the Washington Institute/A Conversation
with Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud
Humanitarian crisis looms over Nagorno-Karabakh
Harris suspends travel after staffer tests COVID-19 positive
Greece lodges protest against Turkey for delaying foreign minister’s plane
France warns Turkey of EU sanctions over ‘provocations’ in Mediterranean
Yemen Warring Sides Begin Hard-won Prisoner Swap
Kyrgyzstan President Jeenbekov Announces Resignation
Hassan Inspects Pharmacies, Drug Depots that were Smuggling Medicine
Watchdog Urges Sanctions over Civilian Deaths in Syria's Idlib
US VP nominee Harris suspends travels after staffer tests positive for COVID-19
Hackers launch large-scale attack on key Iranian institutions: Official
US blacklisting harms Sudan’s path to democracy: Sudanese PM
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 15-16/2020
Iraq’s Prime Minister al-Kadhimi should put the
killers of protesters on trial/Zana Gulmohamad/Al Arabiya/October 15/2020
Artificial intelligence has been key to fighting coronavirus – it can do more
too/Munib Mesinovic/Al Arabiya/October 15/2020
An Election Not Like the Others in America/Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday,
15 October, 2020
The Real 21st Century Property Baron Doesn't Live in Mar-a-Lago/Shuli Ren/Bloomberg/October,
15/2020
Too Many Ships Could Swamp America's Military/James Stavridis/Bloomberg/October,
15/2020
Capitalism Caused Climate Change; It Must Also Be the Solution/David Fickling/Bloomberg/October,
15/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 15-16/2020
MoPH: 1550 new coronavirus cases, 2 deaths
NNA/October 15/2020
1550 new coronavirus cases and 2 more deaths have been recorded across the last
24 hours in Lebanon, according to the Ministry of Public Health's daily report
on Thursday.
US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850,
selling price at LBP 3900
NNA/October 15/2020
The Money Changers Syndicate announced in a statement addressed to money
changing companies and institutions Thursday’s USD exchange rate against the
Lebanese pound as follows:
Buying price at a minimum of LBP 3850
Selling price at a maximum of LBP 3900
Schenker Meets Lebanese Officials after Israel-Lebanon
Talks
Associated Press/October 15/2020
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri met Thursday with U.S. Assistant Secretary of
State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker, a day after Lebanon began
indirect negotiations with Israel over their disputed maritime border.
Schenker, the top American diplomat for the Middle East, did not speak to
reporters after his meeting with Berri. Berri has been the main Lebanese
official dealing with U.S. mediators regarding the dispute with Israel over the
past decade. Schenker later met with Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid
Jumblat in Clemenceau. On Wednesday, Schenker attended the opening session of
U.S.-mediated talks between Lebanon and Israel in a U.N. compound in the border
area known as Ras Naqoura. A joint statement released Wednesday by the U.S.
State Department and Jan Kubis, the U.N. special coordinator for Lebanon, said
the Israeli and Lebanese teams "held productive talks and reaffirmed their
commitment to continue negotiations later this month." Israel and Lebanon have
no diplomatic relations and are technically in a state of war. They each claim
about 860 square kilometers of the Mediterranean Sea as being within their own
exclusive economic zones. Israel has already developed a natural gas industry
elsewhere in its economic waters, and Lebanon hopes oil and gas discoveries in
its territorial waters will help it overcome the worst economic and financial
crisis in its modern history.
Lebanon's economic crisis is the result of decades of corruption and
mismanagement, but has been dramatically worsened by the coronavirus pandemic as
well as a massive blast in Beirut on Aug. 4, which killed and wounded many and
caused damage worth billions of dollars.
Schenker visited Beirut after the blast and met members of Lebanon's civil
society. He did not hold talks with politicians at that time. The international
community has said it will not help Lebanon get out of its economic crisis
before it implements major reforms, on top of fighting corruption. President
Michel Aoun was scheduled to hold binding consultations with members of
parliament on Thursday to name a new prime minister, but postponed it for a week
at the last minute.A top candidate for the post was former Prime Minister Saad
Hariri. He resigned in October last year, days after nationwide protests broke
out demanding an end to the rule of the political class that's brought the
country to the verge of bankruptcy. On Wednesday, Hariri failed to win the
backing of the two largest Christian blocs in parliament.
Berri meets Schenker, UN's Kubis, British ambassador
NNA/October 15/2020
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Thursday received at his Ain El Tineh residence
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker, in
the presence of US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, and Diplomat John
Desrocher. On emerging, Schenker left Ain El-Tineh without making any statement.
Speaker Berri also met with UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis. This
afternoon, Berri received British Ambassador to Lebanon, Chris Rampling.
Jumblatt tackles developments with
Schenker
NNA/October 15/2020
Progressive Socialist Party leader, Walid Jumblatt, on Thursday received at his
Clemenceau residence U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs
David Schenker, accompanied by US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, in the
presence of Democratic Gathering MP Wael Abu Faour.
Discussions reportedly touched on the
general situation and the current developments.
Report: Schenker to Meet Aoun Friday
Naharnet/October 15/2020
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker is
expected to meet with President Michel Aoun at Baabda Palace during his four-day
visit to Beirut as part of Lebanon’s historic sea border talks with Israel, al-Joumhouria
daily reported on Thursday. Schenker had met ًWednesday with Maronite Patriarch
Beshara el-Rahi in Bkirki. He declined to make any statement to reporters
afterwards. Also on Wednesday, Schenker, and American Ambassador John Desrocher
who serve as the U.S. mediators for these negotiations, attended indirect talks
between Lebanon and Israel to demarcate their disputed maritime borders at the
UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura. The American officials mediated the talks that
both sides insist are purely technical and not a sign of any normalization of
ties.
Report: Aoun Did not Veto Hariri’s Re-designation
Naharnet/October 15/2020
After President Michel Aoun’s decision to postpone the binding parliamentary
consultations, the President reportedly reiterated “support” for the designation
of ex-PM Saad Hariri, noting that the consultations to name a PM were postponed
to ensure a swift formation of a government, MTV station reported Thursday.
“Aoun received phone calls from several heads of parliamentary blocs (Wednesday
evening) asking him to postpone the consultations. Aoun sought, together with
the upcoming PM-designate, to give a better opportunity for the French
initiative to succeed,” the station said, quoting sources close to Aoun. The
sources reportedly assured that Hariri enjoys Aoun’s support. “Aoun does not
have a veto on Hariri. Everything being said in that regard is not realistic.
Aoun is working on securing a better cover for Hariri,” according to the
sources. They went on saying that the President is “keen on preparing the right
atmosphere for a swift formation of a government facing a reform program which
must be agreed upon.” Late on Wednesday, the Presidency issued a statement
saying that President Michel Aoun postponed the consultations to name a new
premier to October 22.
Lebanon: Aoun Delays Parliamentary Consultations to
Resolve Christian Obstacle
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 October, 2020
Lebanese President Michel Aoun has decided to postpone the binding parliamentary
consultations, which were scheduled to be held this Thursday, until Oct. 22,
upon the request of some parliamentary blocs, a statement by the presidential
office said. Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Aoun contacted Speaker Nabih
Berri and former Prime Minister Saad Hariri before announcing the decision,
stressing the need to resolve a new obstacle, represented by the rejection of
the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement to designate Hariri to head
the new government. In response, both Berri and Hariri said they were against
delaying the consultations. Contacts over the past days have reflected a
positive atmosphere surrounding the government formation process, with a Sunni
consensus over Hariri’s nomination and the support of independent Christian
figures, the Marada Movement, the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), as well as
Amal Movement. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, sources in Hariri’s Al-Mustaqbal
party said that the former premier did not set any conditions for his
appointment, adding that he was a natural candidate for the post. The sources
added that Hariri has called for cooperation among all parties “to help the
country overcome the crisis.” “All efforts should be combined to benefit from
the last opportunity to save the country by adopting the French initiative,”
they emphasized. Ongoing political talks are focusing on the need to form a
transitional government that would implement reform steps to save the country
from collapse within a period of six months, while postponing thorny issues,
such as the national defense strategy and Hezbollah’s weapons. “Thus, Hariri
requests mutual facilitation from all sides to implement these steps,” Al-Mustaqbal
sources said.
Lebanon: New Withdrawal Limits on Local Currency Stir
Confusion
Beirut - Ali Zeineddine/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 October, 2020
News circulated on Wednesday about limits set by banks for cash withdrawals on
Lebanese pounds of up to LBP2 million per month, which is equivalent to around
USD250 in the parallel market.
For extra spending, depositors will be allowed to use their electronic cards,
which also have limits that vary according to the nature of the bank account.
More than 300,000 public sector employees have their full salaries transferred
from the Central Bank to their bank accounts at the end of each month.
The same applies to the private sector, where workers have been suffering from
reduced pay of up to 50 percent. In both sectors, employees have a tendency to
withdraw all their salaries to meet their basic needs on one hand, and ahead of
possible decline in the currency’s exchange rate and its purchasing power on the
other. Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that in response to the new regulations
imposed by Banque du Liban (BDL), some bank administrations have given verbal
instructions to their branches to set new limits on withdrawals in lira not
exceeding LBP2 million per month, regardless of the amount available in the
depositor’s current account. However, BDL Governor Riad Salameh was swift to
deny fixing a limit. He stressed that the mechanism adopted by the central bank
was aimed at setting limits for banks to withdraw from their current accounts at
the BDL.
When these limits are exceeded, the required amounts are deducted from the
banks’ frozen accounts, he added. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, a banker
noticed an explicit discrepancy in the new regulation. He said that while the
governor has denied setting limits on depositor accounts, the withdrawal limits
imposed on the banks would force them to apply the same regulations on their
customers. “Current LBP accounts belonging to banks are insufficient to meet the
daily demands for LBP,” he explained. “Any technical measure to control
liquidity will be ineffective and have limited and temporary effects,” the
banker stated, adding: “Putting new pressure on the already deteriorating
monetary system will generate bad and unwanted repercussions on people's
livelihoods.”
Ferzli: I Expect Hariri to Maintain Majority Thursday
Naharnet/October 15/2020
Deputy Speaker of the Parliament Elie Ferzli voiced “surprise” on Thursday at
the President’s decision to postpone the binding parliamentary consultations to
name a new PM for crisis-hit Lebanon. “The atmospheres were positive on the eve
of consultations,” Ferzli told VDL (93.3) radio station, adding that the
“postponement was a surprise.” “I have no clue what happened in the final
minutes before they were postponed,” added Ferzli. Late on Wednesday, the
Presidency issued a statement saying that President Michel Aoun postponed the
consultations to name a new premier to October 22. Aoun took the decision “at
the request of some parliamentary blocs, after difficulties emerged.” it said.
Ferzli said despite the delay in talks, he “expects ex-PM Saad Hariri to
maintain the support of the majority to retain the post as Premier designate.”
Hariri emerged again as a candidate for the post last week during a show on MTV
station. Earlier this week, he tasked a delegation of his Mustaqbal Movement
with holding talks with political blocs to ensure they are still fully committed
to the French initiative of President Emmanuel Macron. The Lebanese Forces and
Free Patriotic Movement expressed reservation on designating Hariri.
Geagea Again Calls for Early Parliamentary Elections
Naharnet/October 15/2020
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Thursday renewed his call for organizing
early parliamentary elections as a way out of the political crisis. “Day after
day, it becomes evident, through tangible and categorical evidence, that with
this parliamentary majority and this ruling group, there is no hope to resolve
anything,” Geagea tweeted. “The only solution is early parliamentary elections,”
he added. His remarks come a day after President Michel Aoun postponed binding
parliamentary consultations to name a new premier.
Lebanon's Annus Horribilis
Naharnet/October 15/2020
Even for crisis-torn Lebanon, this has been a horrible 12 months. A deep
economic crisis sparked huge street protests and then a massive explosion in
August devastated the capital Beirut. Now without a fully functioning government
after its interim premier resigned, here is a recap of key developments since
mass demonstrations erupted in October 2019:
Hariri out
October 17: Mass protests follow a government announcement of a planned tax on
messaging services such as WhatsApp. With the economy already in crisis, many
see the tax as the last straw, with some demanding "the fall of the regime".
The government of Saad Hariri scraps the tax. But the unrest turns into a
nationwide revolt against the perceived ineptitude and corruption of the ruling
class, cutting across sectarian lines. October 29: Hariri's government resigns,
prompting celebrations in the streets.
Foreign aid appeal rebuffed
December 11: France, the US and other countries rebuff an urgent aid appeal from
Lebanon at a Paris conference, making assistance conditional on a new
reform-minded government. The economic crisis worsens with mass layoffs, drastic
banking restrictions and the Lebanese pound plummeting against the dollar.
New premier
December 19: President Michel Aoun names little-known academic Hassan Diab,
backed by powerful Shiite movement Hezbollah, as premier.
Protesters condemn the appointment and demonstrators and security forces clash
violently in January, leaving hundreds wounded. January 21: The Diab government
is unveiled, made up of a single political camp, the pro-Iranian Hezbollah and
its allies, the Free Patriotic Movement and Amal, which together have a
parliamentary majority. Demonstrators respond by blocking roads in mainly Sunni
districts across the country. February 11: Parliament votes in the new line-up.
Hundreds of protesters try to block the session. Clashes leave more than 370
injured.
Country defaults
March 7: Lebanon, whose debt burden was equivalent to nearly 170 percent of GDP,
says it will for the first time default on a $1.2-billion Eurobond.
Later that month, it says it will discontinue payments on all dollar-denominated
Eurobonds. April 30: After three nights of violent clashes in second city
Tripoli, Diab says Lebanon will seek help from the International Monetary Fund
(IMF).
Currency plunges
June 11: New protests erupt after the Lebanese pound hits a new low on the black
market. The currency plunge comes amid shop closures and massive layoffs due to
the coronavirus.
June 29: Talks with the IMF falter.
August 3: The government begins to unravel with foreign minister Nassif Hitti
resigning.
Catastrophic explosion
August 4: A massive explosion at Beirut's port devastates the entire city,
killing more than 200 people, injuring at least 6,500 others and leaving
hundreds of thousands temporarily homeless. The government says the blast
appears to have been caused by a fire igniting 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate
left unsecured in a warehouse for six years.
Fresh protests
The blast inflames popular anger, with more calls to oust the political elite,
accused of gross negligence that led to the explosion. New protests are held
under the slogan, "Hang them by the noose."A group of protesters led by retired
army officers briefly take over the foreign ministry, declaring it the
"headquarters of the revolution" before being ousted.
Government resigns
August 6: French President Emmanuel Macron visits Beirut and calls for "deep
changes" to the way the country is run. Three days later, the international
community pledges $300 million in emergency aid. August 10: Diab announces
resignation of his government after just over seven months in power.
New premier goes
August 31: Diplomat Mustapha Adib is named as Lebanon's new premier and vows to
carry out reforms demanded by the international community and agree a deal with
IMF. September 1: Macron lands in Beirut, extracting a promise from all
political sides to help Adib form an independent crisis government within two
weeks. September 26: Adib bows out after less than a month as the two main
Shiite parties, Hezbollah and Amal, insist on keeping the finance ministry.
Hariri comeback? -
Macron says he is "ashamed" of Lebanese leaders, who have "betrayed" their
people. October 8: Hariri says he would be willing to come back and head a new
government. Talks to name a new premier are scheduled for October 15.
In Rudderless Lebanon, Revolutionaries Drift Apart
Agence France Presse/October 15/2020
When Lebanon's protest movement erupted in October 2019, Jennyfer, Teymour and
Dayna marched in the same euphoric crowd, united in their determination to bring
down their corrupt leaders. A nightmarish year -- which saw Lebanon's economy go
into tailspin and a cataclysmic explosion destroy swathes of Beirut -- has left
the three young people with different outlooks on life and country. Lebanon is
now suffering though one of the darkest periods in its chaotic history, and
soaring poverty combined with a seemingly inexorable brain drain make for a
bleaker future yet. Faced with this reality, advertising executive Jennyfer Harb
gave up on change, entrepreneur Teymour Jreissati went looking for it abroad,
while writer and activist Dayna Ayyash stayed to fight the good fight. Their
diverging trajectories illustrate the challenges facing an activist movement
that was born with a bang but fizzled out as a series of crises drained it of
much of its revolutionary energy.
'Why keep fighting?'
When protests broke out in Beirut on the evening of October 17 over a new tax on
WhatsApp calls, Jennyfer was leaving a movie theatre, wearing a dress shirt she
had picked for a work presentation. "We looked around us and saw fires," the
26-year-old told AFP from her Beirut home, which was damaged by the deadly
August explosion.She ran home to change and rushed back out to joint the
protests. "I didn't understand anything at the time but it felt so good to be in
rage," she said. Jennyfer stopped going to work for two months to stay on the
streets all day. "It was a beautiful dream -- the dream of a new beginning, of
something better," she said. Then Lebanon's worst economic crisis in decades
started to bite and the fatigue set in. "I became so consumed," she said. "I
could not keep up with all this activism." After the August 4 port blast --
Lebanon's worst peacetime disaster, widely blamed on state negligence --
Jennyfer hoped for a second wind to the street activism. But only a few days
after surviving the explosion, Jennyfer said she was badly beaten by army troops
while protecting a child from their batons. "At that moment it hit me," she
said.
"They are so powerful that they could shut you up," she said of a ruling elite
that is seemingly oblivious to domestic and foreign pressure for change.
"Why keep fighting?"
Leaving Lebanon
For exactly 292 days, by his own count, Teymour Jreissati put everything in his
life on hold to help organise a protest group. The 33-year-old handed over the
management of the furniture company he had spent 10 years building to his
business partner. "I barely saw my children," he said. He converted his Beirut
office into a daily meeting spot for protest leaders to plan the next move.
Teymour was on the streets almost every day, even when the crackdown turned
heavy-handed. He started receiving warnings from the security services and
threats from political party loyalists. "We will stab you in the back and you
won't know where the knife came from," Teymour said, quoting one of the
phoned-in threats. Then came a more chilling warning, which broke his resolve,
he said: "We know were your son goes to school." With the economic collapse also
killing his business, by June Teymour was planning his move to France.
He and his family moved to Nice just one week before the port blast disfigured
Beirut and killed five of his friends. "Not a single human being should be
living what the Lebanese people are living," he said.
'We're still going'
When the streets erupted on October 17 last year, Dayna was out in a flash. "It
was righteous, unadulterated rage," said the 31-year-old founder of the activist
group Haven for Artists. "Finally that tight knot in my throat wasn't just in my
throat, it was around everybody's throats, eliciting this reaction."
Within two days she would shift from just participating in rallies to helping
blockade a main Beirut flyover -- a moment she said challenged the "illusion"
that the system in Lebanon was untouchable. "It was so much power given back to
us," she said. In the months that followed, Dayna became a known figure in
protest circles. She worked relentlessly to champion all the causes that found
new impetus in the Lebanese "revolution" -- including the rights of women,
domestic migrant workers and the LGBTQ community. "What marked me is realising
that I'm not the only one who thinks we have a lot to fight for" she said.
Reflecting on the lost momentum of the anti-government protest movement, Dayna
argued that many activists had shifted their energies into emergency relief
efforts after the blast. She rejected the suggestion that the protest movement
as a whole had been snuffed out. Dayna insisted that her determination was
unwavering and that every new crisis hitting the country was a new reason to
keep on fighting. "We cant say what it's going to take for us to give up because
they have done a lot to us and we are still going."
Setbacks and Subtle Victories: One Year of Lebanon Protests
Agence France Presse/October 15/2020
Lebanon's protest movement has made some important gains since it burst out onto
the streets a year ago, even if its revolutionary fever has died down.
Demonstrations that erupted last October 17 over a planned tax on calls made via
messaging apps quickly evolved into an unprecedented nationwide uprising against
political leaders viewed as inept and corrupt. Politics in multi-confessional
Lebanon is dominated by former warlords from the 1975-1990 civil war who have
exchanged their military fatigues for suits, or were replaced by relatives. The
cross-sectarian protest movement initially generated hope of sweeping changes,
and less than two weeks later the government resigned under street pressure. But
a grinding economic crisis and measures to stop the spread of the novel
coronavirus combined to take the wind out of the "revolution" camp's sails,
before a cataclysmic explosion at Beirut's port on August 4 sparked a brief
street revival. The cabinet, in power for just over seven months, resigned over
the port catastrophe, and a new government has yet to be appointed. But
activists insist change is underway, even though the traditional ruling class is
still firmly entrenched. Political leaders have been heckled and shamed inside
shops and restaurants over the past year, and are aware of the growing tide
against them. "They are afraid of being targeted by demonstrators and have
disappeared" from public places, said political scientist Ziad Majed. He hailed
the protest movement for sparking "a change in mentalities" towards a more
secular approach to politics, even as Lebanon's confessional system remains in
place.
'Accelerating effect'
Since the protests erupted, citizen-powered media initiatives have gained a
boost as an alternative to mainstream Lebanese outlets that are mostly funded by
or aligned with one of the country's political leaders. Megaphone, a largely
volunteer-run online platform founded in 2017, is among the most prominent.
It was created to counter "the hegemonic media discourse that is controlled by
political money or political interest," said Jonathan Dagher, an activist and
journalist who volunteers at the organisation. Some structures that formally
operate outside the state's ambit have also started to undergo changes.
The Beirut Bar Association, long controlled by representatives of ruling
parties, elected independent candidate and protest sympathiser Melhem Khalaf as
its president last November. The protest movement has also had an impact on
policy decisions. Parliament passed two major anti-corruption laws this year --
a significant move for a body usually mired in political deadlock. "The protest
movement as well as international pressure had an accelerating effect," former
MP Ghassan Moukheiber said. And in a major victory, the World Bank announced
last month that it was cancelling a loan to fund a dam in Lebanon that
environmentalists and activists said could destroy a valley rich in
biodiversity. Meanwhile, some politicians' rhetoric has clumsily tried to align
with the street, largely due to mounting international pressure as they seek a
financial bailout for Lebanon to stem its economic crisis. Threats of Western
sanctions against individual players have caused some alarm among the hereditary
political class that now ostensibly supports calls for a secular civil state.
Demonstrators have long demanded such a move, railing against a confessional
system of politics that distributes posts according to sectarian affiliation.
Revolutions 'take time'
Lebanon's political barons are widely accused of decades of nepotism and
corruption, and many blame what they see as incompetence for the August 4
explosion. Authorities say the blast was caused by a vast stock of ammonium
nitrate that caught fire after it languished at the port for years.
After the explosion, protesters hanged cardboard cut-outs of the political elite
from mock gallows in a display of rage. They included an image of Hezbollah
leader Hassan Nasrallah -- a gesture almost unthinkable even 12 months ago.
"Revenge, revenge, until this regime reaches an end," protesters chanted.
Politicians largely stayed out of public view in the wake of the blast, avoiding
visits to the disaster site or hard-hit neighbourhoods. International donors who
pledged millions in blast aid to Lebanon have said that funds would bypass the
government and go directly to the population and to NGOs. Historian Carla Edde
said the movement that began last October marked a "historic turning point".
Revolutionary movements "generally take time" to succeed, but "it is not only a
question of time," she warned. Without a solid leadership that becomes
institutionalised in politics, lasting change will remain a pipe dream, she
said. Dagher, the activist and journalist, said the defenders of the cause were
aware of the challenge. "We know the size of the regime we are facing, the size
of the monster, we know what we're up against," he said. "It will take time."
Lebanon-Israel maritime talks do not have to stop at
the border
Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/October 15/2020
The Lebanon-Israel border talks show that Hezbollah is under pressure. They
could lead to more concessions.
According to the Lebanese presidency, the first round of negotiations between
Lebanon and Israel on maritime border demarcation are "technical" and specific
to maritime border demarcation. A statement was released on Tuesday to assure
the Lebanese that these negotiations are merely about a technical demarcation of
the borders, and would not be translated in any concessions to the international
community, or in any type of normalization with Israel.
However, the mere fact that Lebanon has finally accepted to sit at the table
with Israeli officials – after years of stalling – means that pressure is
seriously mounting on the Hezbollah-led government and these negotiations could
be the beginning of a series of concessions. The trick is to continue the
pressure, and use the leverage created by Hezbollah’s current weakness.
The maritime border negotiations may be technical, but they are eventually
political – in the sense that Lebanon has for the first time acknowledged
Israel’s existence, as a country with borders. And this wouldn’t have happened
without Hezbollah and Iran’s blessings. Acknowledgement might be the first step
on the road to more compromises. These talks won’t reach a normalization
agreement, such as the Abraham Accord, but might push Hezbollah’s weapons and
missiles on the table, that is if pressure parallels border negotiations.
Hezbollah cannot afford to go to war with Israel today, due to financial and
logistical challenges that are growing by the day. Israel is capitalizing on
Hezbollah’s vulnerability to push for more pressure on the organization,
recently exposing its missile production factories in Lebanon. Meanwhile, the US
Treasury continues to slap Hezbollah and its allies with sanctions, causing
mayhem among its political coalition, which has been weakened by the Lebanon
protests.
Hezbollah knows that it can only ease the pressure by giving something in
return, especially if it wants to avoid an Israeli strike on its missile
factories in Lebanon – which could require an unfavorable retaliation that
Hezbollah is trying to dodge, at least until the US elections are over. So they
agreed to hold discussions with the Israelis, hoping they can continue to buy
time until the elections.
Hezbollah is allowing Lebanon and its military institutions to negotiate with
Israel, so when the UNIFIL moved some of its troops – for the first time - to
the Beirut port, in coordination with the Lebanese Army, Hezbollah said nothing,
and Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah did not even mention these
negotiations in his most recent speech.
Hezbollah’s plan is to give in a little so it can survive until elections
results in the US are out, hoping that a Biden administration would ease
sanctions and stop the maximum pressure campaign that weakened Iran and its
proxies in the region. This might be wishful thinking. First, even if Biden wins
the elections, he has other priorities, such as COVID-19, China, and Russia.
Second, a deal with Iran does not necessarily mean bailing out Lebanon’s corrupt
political class. These two things are separate.
When it comes to Lebanon, any financial assistance, from the CEDRE to the IMF
aid packages, will not be released without the implementation of certain clear
reforms, and no deal with Iran will reconsider these conditions. In any case, it
was clear that Hezbollah and Iran do submit under pressure, and if it wasn’t for
fear of more sanctions and isolation, they wouldn’t have agreed to the border
demarcation talks.
Therefore, whoever wins the next US presidential elections needs to keep in mind
that, when it comes to Iran and its militias, diplomacy only works with
persistent and accumulative pressure. In addition, these negotiations – if
pressure continues on Hezbollah and its allies in Lebanon – do not have to stop
at the border demarcation, but could be used to push for more concessions: on
Hezbollah’s arsenal, power within the Lebanese political system, and its wider
regional military presence.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the inaugural Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington
Institute's Geduld Program on Arab Politics, where she focuses on Shia politics
throughout the Levant. She tweets @haningdr.
October 17, Lebanon’s Path to Salvation
Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 15/2020
Lebanon's October revolution is in two days. The country has not witnessed
anything like it in its history. It surprised those who took part in creating it
before surprising anyone else. It revealed citizens' refined awareness,
especially that of the youths whose awareness and vision were crystallized on
the vertical sectarian divisions that have been entrenched since 2005. This
hastened the crystallization of the demands - rights of the overwhelming
majority, which united around its interests in the face of a political cabal
that included all the sectarian leaders whose violations of the people's rights
and dignity became so cruel as to become humiliating. From the first hour of
October 17, until a million Lebanese took to the streets, followed by the revolt
of the Lebanese diaspora around the world, the regional and sectarian divisions
were broken. Lebanon, where an extremely broad youth movement was surging,
seemed to be a monolith for the first time in its history as it was undergoing
its deepest national reconciliation. The public squares that brought people
together proved that the October Revolution is the project for forgoing the
civil war and a culture of factionalism that pushes for disassociation from the
other. It repudiated all positions - constants, which are, in their depths,
hatred amplified to facilitate the people's subjugation and exploitation!
What Lebanon has been undergoing since October 17 is remarkable, and it is still
going on in various forms. It differs from all other Lebanese events, from civil
conflicts, some of which were referred to as revolutions, to the 2005
independence uprising that had managed to shake two security regimes and played
a major role in the expulsion of the Syrian regime's occupation forces...All of
these events were top-down, led by parties from the political class, whose
interests had been undermined, gains receded, sectarian representation had been
unfairly undercut or were seeking a bigger share of the pie of domination and
profit, driving them to mobilize followers and beneficiaries.
These mobilizations would sometimes go as far as stirring civil conflicts, all
of which left fatal imprints on the country's demography and end with a
consensus on renewing the settlement between parties of the sectarian political
system who have been governing Lebanon since its independence. They have perhaps
been ruling the country since the declaration of Greater Lebanon. Their
composition has never been adjusted, except during the epoch in which the
regime, which forged a coalition that brought together the war's militias and
money, thereby enabling the political clique to make internal decisions while
ensuring the clique's subordination to the regime and its furthering of the
regime's goals. This state of affairs persisted, with Tehran declaring Beirut to
be among the four capitals it dominates!
For many decades, civil conflict, especially the civil war, entrenched sectarian
leaders' hegemony, who came to shape events. Abiding by the political custom of
"no victor and no vanquished", they emerged victorious, though to divergent
extents, after every phase, while deep wounds afflicted the people who paid the
price with their lives, livelihoods and ways of life. But after October 17, the
situation switched. The people had been pushed too far, and the people who had
discovered that fraternity untied them took the streets, filling public spaces
with peaceful protests. The rhetoric significantly changed; youth and women
forcefully and equivocally expressed themselves. With that, prevalent norms were
broken, thus de-sanctifying all the sectarian leaders: "all of them means all of
them" are responsible for Lebanese' humiliating oppression and the assault on
their rights. The whole ruling clique disappeared, and politicians moved around
in secrecy. The convoys and manifestations of strongman thuggishness were
absent. The political speeches' rhetoric transformed; though it was
disingenuous, it affirmed a new imperative: after October 17, this is no longer
acceptable, and this and that are not allowed...!
The political class cracked, and it was no fleeting event, Hariri's announced
the government's resignation under pressure from the protests despite the red
line which Hassan Nassrallah drew to prevent it and despite the protection
provided by the president and parliament which lost its legitimacy by the
movement that prevented it from convening several times.
This development pushed the armed faction clinging to decision-making in the
country, Hezbollah, to the forefront of defending the ruling clique's defense of
the sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing regime that safeguards corruption. Its
unmasked face was exposed as an armed force that threatens civil peace,
security, prosperity, and stability, sending a stern message that change is not
allowed to the Lebanese people and their revolution! In the end, Hezbollah
failed to achieve its goal by diverting the revolution away from its goals.
Despite the organized attacks and the push for violence to distort the
revolution's image, especially with the attacks on public and private property,
Tyre's Alam Square maintained its symbolism, as did the Nabatiyeh Square and the
Mitran Square in Baalbek, preserving the revolution's national character and its
inclusivity!
The revolution triggered a general shift. It is as though the time has come for
a new nation that repudiates sectarianism and despises factionalism. The
revolution cultivated joy and brought smiles back to our faces despite the
gloomy climate and the spread of poverty and invasion. Citizens regained hope
and the revolution transformed into a school that illustrated the path to
breaking the chain of tyranny and retrieving the hijacked state. Everyone became
aware that retrieving rights necessarily entails real political change and
arriving at the reconfiguration of authority. Because the corruption clique that
desertified the country and chained it with debt and impoverished it after
embezzling public money and the deposits and transferring stolen money abroad,
it cannot implement any rescue plan, as such as plan would undermine its
interests and puts an end to its impunity.
The Lebanese October revolution has yet to achieve its desired change. As a
matter of prudence, it is worth noting the negative effects of the lack of
organizational structures, as well as the absence of competent leadership in the
movement. Nonetheless, the October revolution presented the country with the
only recourse to stop the collapse and catch a breath, namely the imperative to
establish an independent government of a prime minister and members. This demand
became a patriotic one and now garners the approval of the Arab and
international community. This would not have been possible if the revolution had
not succeeded in exposing the system's corruption, its weaknesses, and its
incompetence in managing the crisis. But the corrupt system did not blink after
the crime of the 4th of August that overthrew the facade government as it rushed
to secure its permanence through the delineation of borders with Israel, a move
that was backed by Iran and accepted by Hezbollah, amid continues efforts to
persist spoil-sharing and wrestle to secure seats in the government
It is clear today that the political class has expired. As it fell domestically,
it fell internationally, as evidenced by what the French president said to
describe it. Yet, it persists due to its reliance on illegal arms and the
absence of an alternative that, in turn, necessitates establishing a wide
opposition front and a safety network that expands across the country; gathering
the young generation and competencies; developing the means to defend an
atmosphere of peaceful protests; and contributing to the development of a
well-led political alternative that is capable of improving peaceful struggles
under the rules of the constitution to continue the march of liberating Lebanon
from a blatant political occupation imposed by a network of plunderers backed by
foreign powers!
A Chance For Reform in Lebanon
Hussein Ibish/Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 15/2020
After a tumultuous year, Lebanese politics seems firmly rooted in the proverbial
square one . Last October, Prime Minister Saad Hariri was brought down by a
series of widespread street protests against the entire ruling elite. Now Hariri
looks likely to return, possibly as soon as this week.
At first glance, this might bode ill for the prospects of real reforms in
Lebanon. But much has changed in the year since Hariri’s resignation. The
worsening economy and the catastrophic August 4 explosion in Beirut have helped
to soften political resistance to change. If Hariri plays his cards right, it is
just conceivable that he could oversee a meaningful shift — however modest — in
the Lebanese power structure. That would require him to persuade Hezbollah,
along with its local partners and Syrian and Iranian patrons, to accept changes
in the way the Lebanese state is governed and its resources managed. Some
reports suggest the two sides have reached an informal understanding. Harder
still, Hariri will have to win over the people who forced him from office a year
ago.
Their desire for change is undiminished. Lebanese have made their disgust with
the political system, with its sectarian quotas and networks of patronage,
abundantly clear. They hold their leaders responsible for destroying their
economy and currency, ruining their lives and livelihoods—and for the explosion
that shattered their capital. All political factions are under enormous pressure
to respond to the growing anger.
Pressure for change is also coming from abroad. Lebanon’s economy needs a
multi-billion-dollar bailout from the International Monetary Fund; international
investors would be loath to sink money into the country until it has a new
IMF-approved framework. But a bailout would come with significant economic and
political conditions. For Lebanese with power and privilege, that means the
terrifying prospect of opening the Pandora’s Box of reform. Any IMF-imposed
moves toward transparency and accountability in economic management will
inevitably impinge on the political elite’s ability to appropriate national
resources.
But there are signs that the political class is beginning to accept that without
reforms Lebanon would face total social collapse. Even Hezbollah has dropped its
formerly adamant opposition to any deal with the IMF. It now seems willing to go
along with French President Emmanuel Macron’s plan, which requires the formation
of a government of technocrats, and committing to an agreement with the IMF.
Other, less powerful leaders like Druze chieftain Walid Jumblatt recognize they
can’t block or veto such a deal and are maneuvering to join the new government.
Most of the political factions regard Hariri as a useful interlocutor with the
IMF. This, taken together with regional and international support, will lend
credibility to his claim to speak for the Lebanese power structure in making
real concessions.
Even Hezbollah, long his opponents, will welcome Hariri’s return. His departure,
and the political paralysis that it precipitated, left the pro-Iranian militia
responsible for the Lebanese government, a very uncomfortable position,
particularly in such hard times.
Hezbollah much prefers the old arrangement that allowed it to assert its primacy
on the issues it considers vital, such as maintaining the independence of its
fighters and military infrastructure, while leaving the messy work of governing
to others. Hariri’s return will allow it to once again wield power without
responsibility. In exchange, he might be able to extract concessions on debt
restructuring and public sector reforms that he can take to the IMF.
Hariri says he will follow Macron’s plan. An early signal of his seriousness
would be the independence and credibility of key members of his cabinet—and
especially the minister of finance, a position Hezbollah would be loath to fully
relinquish. Announcing a truly independent, credible cabinet might win Hariri
some leeway from ordinary Lebanese, who would otherwise regard his return with
suspicion.
There is much that could go wrong. Hezbollah might yet balk at serious reform,
and the protesters who brought Hariri down last October might not be inclined to
give him the benefit of the doubt.
But these are desperate times, and what was once unthinkable is now possible.
Consider the maritime border negotiations with Israel, which under almost any
other circumstances would have provoked outrage among Lebanese. Now, not even
Hezbollah can summon any serious opposition to haggling with the old enemy.
Lebanese desperation might — just might — help Saad Hariri to finally move his
country beyond square one.
Lebanon is being forced to relive its traumas
Kareem Shaheen/The National/October 15/2020
Late last week, Saad Hariri, Lebanon’s former prime minister and the scion of
the Hariri political and business clan, decided to nominate himself as a
candidate to form the next Lebanese government.
Mr Hariri put his name forward unilaterally after Mustapha Adib, a former
diplomat, failed in his bid to form a government of technocrats that could push
through a raft of reform measures. The measures were sorely needed in order to
save the country from economic collapse and unlock a financial aid package from
the international community.
These measures were championed by French President Emmanuel Macron, who visited
Lebanon in the aftermath of a cataclysmic explosion in Beirut in August, which
levelled much of the city and rendered more than 250,000 people homeless. Mr
Adib’s bid failed due to the intransigence of Hezbollah and Amal, the main Shia
parties, who insisted on naming the new finance minister.
Mr Adib’s failure and Mr Hariri’s self-proclamation coincide with the one-year
anniversary of a popular protest movement that began on October 17, 2019. The
protesters have called for the removal of a craven and corrupt political class
that has brought Lebanon to ruin.
The movement has won admiration around the world for its creativity and – most
notably – the absence of sectarianism. Mr Hariri was in power at the time it
began, and its popularity was responsible for his resignation.
His return does not bode well for any real departure from the political class
that has proved so problematic for Lebanon. A lack of substantive change would
be seen as a betrayal of the uprising.
The nominal spark that lit the protest movement in Lebanon was a proposed tax on
WhatsApp calls, but it was only the latest stick to break the proverbial camel’s
back. The Lebanese had weathered decades of poverty and nepotism under a system
that distributed power based on sectarian affiliation.
Late last week, Saad Hariri, Lebanon’s former prime minister and the scion of
the Hariri political and business clan, decided to nominate himself as a
candidate to form the next Lebanese government.
Mr Hariri put his name forward unilaterally after Mustapha Adib, a former
diplomat, failed in his bid to form a government of technocrats that could push
through a raft of reform measures. The measures were sorely needed in order to
save the country from economic collapse and unlock a financial aid package from
the international community.
These measures were championed by French President Emmanuel Macron, who visited
Lebanon in the aftermath of a cataclysmic explosion in Beirut in August, which
levelled much of the city and rendered more than 250,000 people homeless. Mr
Adib’s bid failed due to the intransigence of Hezbollah and Amal, the main Shia
parties, who insisted on naming the new finance minister.
Mr Adib’s failure and Mr Hariri’s self-proclamation coincide with the one-year
anniversary of a popular protest movement that began on October 17, 2019. The
protesters have called for the removal of a craven and corrupt political class
that has brought Lebanon to ruin.
The movement has won admiration around the world for its creativity and – most
notably – the absence of sectarianism. Mr Hariri was in power at the time it
began, and its popularity was responsible for his resignation.
His return does not bode well for any real departure from the political class
that has proved so problematic for Lebanon. A lack of substantive change would
be seen as a betrayal of the uprising.
The nominal spark that lit the protest movement in Lebanon was a proposed tax on
WhatsApp calls, but it was only the latest stick to break the proverbial camel’s
back. The Lebanese had weathered decades of poverty and nepotism under a system
that distributed power based on sectarian affiliation.
An anti-government protester uses a tennis racket to return a tear gas canister
towards riot police near Parliament Square in Beirut on September 1. AP
Hezbollah, beholden to Iran, maintained military supremacy, a gun that it
wielded to cow its opponents, and sometimes assassinate them. It created a state
within a state.
The war in Syria worsened the destitution in Lebanon. One million refugees
sought shelter across the border, adding to an existing population of 4 million.
Hezbollah’s intervention to secure the regime of Bashar Al Assad in Damascus led
to a spillover of violence, including suicide attacks by terrorist groups and
sectarian clashes in major cities like Sidon and Tripoli. As citizens suffered,
many of the country’s political elites continued to enrich themselves and wield
influence to expand their patronage networks and protect their ill-gotten gains,
leaving ordinary people without even basic services, like 24-hour access to
electricity or water or garbage disposal.
The preeminent slogan of the uprising was “kellon yaani kellon”, or “all of them
means all of them”, a brave proclamation that demanded nothing less than the
ousting of the entire political class. The movement captured global attention
last October with its good humour, musical prowess and sheer joy.
It did not last, largely because the depth of the depravity of most of the
ruling class had not yet become apparent. A monumental economic collapse shortly
began unravelling Lebanon's entire financial system, the very structure of which
was morally corrupt.
Banks were reliant on fictionally high interest rates meant to attract US dollar
deposits, which were then loaned to the government. As the state and banks ran
out of foreign currency late last year, tens of billions of dollars were
transferred abroad, and ordinary citizens paid the price, locked out of their
bank accounts to preserve bankrupt institutions.
More people were plunged into poverty as the currency eventually lost 80 per
cent of its value, and Lebanon became the first Arab nation to experience
hyperinflation.
Then came the explosion in August of thousands of tons of ammonium nitrate that
had simply been left unattended in the Beirut Port. The destruction is such that
there is no word that quite captures the catastrophic levels of criminal
negligence, and yet the same political elites who held power before remained in
control after. Finally, the coronavirus pandemic continues to ravage the
country, with thousands of cases reported daily. The country now has over 55,000
officially recorded cases as of this writing.
The jubilation of the protest movement has been replaced by a hopelessness that
things could ever change and an overwhelming desire among young people to leave.
Mr Macron’s initiative is laudable but ultimately unlikely to succeed. It may
succeed in pushing some limited reforms that would head off further poverty,
destitution and food insecurity. But in their essence, his proposals are meant
to urge a shift in power away from a political elite that has long profited and
cemented its power through the misery of ordinary citizens. Asking them to give
it away voluntarily is a fool’s errand.
Mr Hariri himself may not be personally responsible for the calamity the country
finds itself in, but he is still considered a member of the elite political
class. So, it is difficult to see his return as a signal that meaningful change
will materialise.
*Kareem Shaheen is a veteran Middle East correspondent in Canada and a columnist
for The National
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on October 15-16/2020
Video from the Washington Institute/A
Conversation with Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud
فيديو من معهد واشنطن: مقابلة مع وزير خارجية السعودية/https://youtu.be/UtX2qnWbrws
October 15, 2020/The Washington Institute
Click Here or on the link below to enter the page of
the Washington Institute
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/a-conversation-with-foreign-minister-prince-faisal-bin-farhan-al-saud
UPDATE: THE STARTING TIME OF THIS EVENT HAS CHANGED. THE
WEBCAST WILL BEGIN AT 1:30 P.M. EDT (1730 GMT).
Submit questions for this Policy Forum by email.
On virtually every significant Middle East policy issue -- from containing Iran
to the war in Yemen; from energy policy to the intra-Gulf rift; from the battle
against extremism to the expansion of Arab-Israel state-to-state relations --
Saudi Arabia plays a pivotal role. Given the kingdom’s centrality to regional
politics, it is also no surprise that the U.S.-Saudi relationship looms large in
U.S. politics and the presidential campaign.
To discuss Saudi foreign policy and bilateral relations at this critical moment,
The Washington Institute is pleased to announce a virtual Policy Forum with
Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud, the foreign minister of the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia.Prince Faisal will mark his first anniversary as foreign minister this
month. Previously, he served as Saudi ambassador to Germany, prior to which he
was posted as an advisor at the Saudi embassy in Washington.
The Policy Forum series is made possible through the generosity of the Florence
and Robert Kaufman Family.
Humanitarian crisis looms over Nagorno-Karabakh
The National/October 15/2020
For nearly three weeks, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been embroiled in clashes in
Nagorno-Karabakh, a region disputed by the two nations. It is the latest
flare-up in a decades-long conflict that recently had seemed to be in a period
of remission. Now events are threatening to destabilise the South Caucasus. The
clashes have claimed hundreds of lives and exacerbated tensions during a period
already scarred by a global health crisis and economic recession.
Officially known as Nagorno-Karabakh but referred to as Artsakh in Armenia, the
region is recognised by most nations as Azerbaijani territory, but it is mostly
inhabited and governed by ethnic Armenians. After the fall of the Soviet Union,
the region declared its independence in 1991, a move recognised by neither
Azerbaijan nor Armenia, though the latter supports the separatists financially
and militarily. In the following three years, when the worst of the fighting
took place, 30,000 people perished.
Last Saturday, both sides implemented a Russian-brokered ceasefire, but they
each has since accused the other of violating it. Now, a humanitarian crisis
looms. Hundreds of Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers have died on the
frontlines, and scores of civilians have been killed. The number of casualties
has not been independently verified and in reality may be much higher.
Photographs of elderly people sweeping the rubble of their destroyed homes in
the disputed region have been circulated widely. They have come to symbolise the
suffering of thousands of innocent civilians caught in a seemingly endless
conflict.
Azerbaijanis and Armenians alike were already suffering from the coronavirus
pandemic and its economic consequences. Now, they must also worry about the
potential of full-blown war if the ceasefire falls through.
Charities on the ground are already preparing for the worst. This week, the
International Committee of the Red Cross issued a $10 million emergency appeal
to bolster its humanitarian efforts in the region. The violence has also caused
a spike in coronavirus cases on both sides of the border. In Armenia, the total
number of active Covid-19 cases has more than doubled since fighting began, and
Azerbaijan has also recorded a surge in cases.
Turkey has taken an active role in the conflict. Ankara has openly sided with
Azerbaijan, encouraging Baku to continue fighting and drawing both sides further
away from the negotiating table. Having already sent Syrian mercenaries to fight
in Libya, Turkey has now flown Syrians to fight as proxies in Azerbaijan. At
least 50 of them have died in the conflict. Turkey has embroiled itself in
conflicts throughout the region. It has provided support to Libya’s Government
of National Accord. Ankara has also increased its influence in Lebanon and
encroached on the maritime boundaries claimed by Greece and Cyprus. This
expansionist pattern is hindering peace efforts in multiple zones of conflict.
As diplomatic talks in Nagorno-Karabakh have so far failed to provide a
satisfactory solution, war is now being touted as the only option. But armed
conflict seldom ends political problems. On the contrary, it deepens the
existing predicament at the expense of civilians. Armenia and Azerbaijan would
do well to respect the ceasefire they both agreed to last week and work towards
ending hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh diplomatically. The cost, in humanitarian
terms, of pursuing any other course of action is simply too great.
Harris suspends travel after staffer tests COVID-19
positive
NNA/October 15/2020
Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, will suspend in-person
events until Monday after two people associated with the campaign tested
positive for coronavirus.
Joe Biden’s presidential campaign said Thursday that Biden had no exposure,
though he and Harris spent several hours campaigning together in Arizona on Oct.
8. Both have tested negative for COVID-19 multiple times since then.--The
Associated Press
Greece lodges protest against Turkey for delaying
foreign minister’s plane
AFP, Athens/15 October 2020
Greece on Thursday lodged a formal protest with longtime regional rival Turkey,
saying a state plane carrying its foreign minister was delayed on a flight home
from an official visit to Iraq. The incident came ahead of EU talks over a
dispute between the two neighbors over energy resources in contested waters in
the eastern Mediterranean. State TV ERT said the plane carrying Greek Foreign
Minister Nikos Dendias was forced to circle for 20 minutes late on Wednesday
near the Iraqi city of Mosul before being allowed passage by Turkish aviation
authorities. The Turkish foreign ministry said the plane carrying Dendias -- a
backup after the first plane malfunctioned -- “took off from Iraq without
submitting the necessary flight plan.”“The plan was urgently requested from the
Iraqi authorities, and after the plan was received, the flight was carried out
safely,” Turkish foreign ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy said in a statement.
“Naturally, it is not possible for an aircraft to fly without providing a flight
plan. In this case, it is first and foremost a necessity for (Dendias’s)
safety,” Aksoy said. “Our Greek counterparts were also informed about the
issue,” he said. In Athens, government spokesman Stelios Petsas said the Greek
foreign ministry had “taken the necessary actions with a (diplomatic)
protest.”European leaders are meeting in Brussels on Thursday, with grievances
over Turkish energy exploration in the eastern Mediterranean back on the agenda
at the behest of Greece and Cyprus. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and
Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades “will submit the latest Turkish
provocations” to fellow EU leaders, Petsas said, adding: “Sanctions are still on
the table.”Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday vowed to give
Greece the “answer it deserves” over their energy dispute. After a similar row
in August, Ankara has redeployed the research ship Oruc Reis to strategic waters
between Cyprus and the Greek islands of Crete and Kastellorizo. The United
States and Germany, both NATO allies of Greece and Turkey, have labelled the gas
exploration mission a “provocation” and urged Ankara to recall the ship.
France warns Turkey of EU sanctions over ‘provocations’ in
Mediterranean
The Associated Press, Ankara/Thursday 15 October 2020
France warned Turkey on Thursday that it could face European Union sanctions for
its “provocations,” after Ankara redeployed its search vessel on a new energy
exploration mission in the eastern Mediterranean. Speaking in Paris after a
meeting of the French-German-Polish ‘Weimar Triangle,’ French Foreign Minister
Jean-Yves Le Drian reiterated the EU stance that unless Turkey shows “respect
for the integrity of Greece and Cyprus” then the December European Council will
consider initiating sanctions. “We are forced to note that there are permanent
acts of provocation on the part of Turkey which are not bearable, and therefore
we really wish that Turkey clarifies its positions and returns to a spirit of
dialogue,” he said. Turkey redeployed its search vessel, Oruc Reis, near the
Greek island of Kastellorizo, reigniting tensions between Greece and Turkey over
sea boundaries and energy drilling rights, and putting the future of the planned
resumption of talks between Athens and Ankara to resolve disputes into doubt.
Those talks were last held in 2016. Those tensions had flared up over the
summer, triggering fears of a confrontation between the two historic rivals and
NATO allies.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said he understood Greece’s unwillingness to
engage in dialogue due to Turkey’s decision to again dispatch its ship. Given
Berlin’s efforts to mediate between the parties “the behavior by Turkey to
conduct another provocation, resulting in the already agreed process of dialogue
not taking place, is more than annoying, including for us in our role as
intermediary,” Maas said.
Maas said he continues to believe the conflict can be solved through dialogue
and not with naval ships, and stressed Germany’s hope that there might be
progress next week. “And if there isn’t, then the European Union will have to
face the question of how to deal with this and what consequences this will
have,” Maas said. Both Turkey and Greece have this week accused each other of
engaging in “provocations," including plans to hold military drills in the
Aegean Sea later this month to coincide with the other country's national public
holiday. Earlier on Thursday, Turkey denied accusations by Greece that Ankara
refused an overflight permit to a plane carrying Greek Foreign Minister Nikos
Dendias, forcing the aircraft to remain in the air for 20 minutes. Greek state
broadcaster ERT reported that the plane carrying Dendias back from a visit to
Baghdad the previous day was kept circling over Mosul for 20 minutes because
Turkish authorities weren't granting it permission to fly through Turkish
airspace back to Greece. Turkey’s Foreign Ministry denied any deliberate move to
hold up the plane before entering the Turkish airspace, insisting the plane
hadn't provided the required flight plan. According to the Turkish ministry, the
plane that took Dendias to Iraq broke down there, and the Greek government then
allocated a second plane, which took off without the required flight plan. “When
the aforementioned aircraft arrived at our airspace, the plan was urgently
requested from the Iraqi authorities, and after the plan was received, the
flight was carried out safely,” the ministry said. Asked about the incident
during a regular briefing, the Greek government spokesman, Stelios Petsas, said
Athens had lodged a complaint over the incident. “It is one more provocation, in
the continued provocations by the Turkish side,” Petsas said. “But I would like
to remain on the fact that various explanations were given, also from the
Turkish side, and we hope that this phenomenon and this incident is never
repeated in the future.”
Yemen Warring Sides Begin Hard-won Prisoner Swap
Agence France Presse/October 15/2020
A hard-won prisoner exchange between the Yemeni government and Huthi rebels got
under way on Thursday with the departure of the first planeloads of released
combatants. The warring sides in Yemen's long conflict are to exchange 1,081
prisoners over two days under a deal struck in Switzerland last month, the
largest number since the conflict erupted in 2014. An AFP correspondent watched
the first planes depart from the rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa. One of them
was headed for the city of Abha in neighbouring Saudi Arabia with released
prisoners of war from a Saudi-led military coalition that supports the Yemeni
government, rebel officials said. Those on board included 15 Saudis and four
Sudanese. Planes are also due to depart from Abha and from the Yemeni
government-held city of Seiyun in a complex operation overseen by the
International Committee of the Red Cross, rebel officials said. UN Yemen envoy
Martin Griffiths, who attended last month's talks in Switzerland, hailed the
successful start of the operation. "Today's release operation, led by the ICRC,
is another sign that peaceful dialogue can deliver," the envoy said. "I hope the
parties will soon reconvene under UN auspices to discuss the release of all
conflict-related prisoners and detainees." The Yemeni government and the
Iran-backed rebels resolved to swap some 15,000 detainees as part of a peace
deal brokered by the UN in Sweden back in 2018. The two sides have since
undertaken sporadic prisoner exchanges, but this week's planned swap would mark
the first large-scale handover since the war erupted in 2014. "The transaction
will be executed, with God's help, on the scheduled dates today and tomorrow,"
Abdel Kader Mortaza, the rebel official in charge of prisoner affairs, said in a
tweet. "The preparations have been completed by all parties," he added. A
spokeswoman for the International Committee of the Red Cross, which is handling
the logistics of the operation, said their teams were present at the various
airports involved in the transfer. Huthi-controlled Al-Masirah television said
the first group of rebel prisoners was expected to arrive at Sanaa airport later
Thursday. The planned exchange comes after the release Wednesday of two
Americans held captive in Yemen, in an apparent swap for some 240 Huthi
supporters who were allowed to return home after being stranded in neighbouring
Oman. The rebels also sent back the remains of a third American who died in
captivity. The fate of the 240 Yemenis, who had travelled to Oman for medical
treatment in what was supposed to be a confidence-building move during the 2018
talks in Sweden, had become a major grievance for the rebels and a symbol of the
deep distrust between the two sides.
Kyrgyzstan President Jeenbekov Announces Resignation
Agence France Presse/October 15/2020
Kyrgyzstan's President Sooronbay Jeenbekov resigned on Thursday, saying he
wanted to bring an end to the crisis sparked by disputed parliamentary elections
earlier this month. "I am not clinging to power. I do not want to go down in the
history of Kyrgyzstan as a president who allowed bloodshed and shooting on its
people. I have taken the decision to resign," Jeenbekov said in a statement
released by his office.
Hassan Inspects Pharmacies, Drug Depots that were
Smuggling Medicine
Agence France Presse/October 15/2020
Caretaker Health Minister Hamad Hassan on Thursday inspected pharmacies and
medication warehouses in the Zahle district after some of them were found to be
smuggling medicine to outside Lebanon. The National News Agency said some of the
pharmacies and depots had been ordered sealed with red wax by Bekaa Attorney
General Munif Barakat. “The medicine mafia in Lebanon has started collapsing,”
Hassan announced during the tour.
Watchdog Urges Sanctions over Civilian Deaths in
Syria's Idlib
Agence France Presse/October 15/2020
Attacks on civilian targets during a Syrian-Russian campaign in northeast
Syria's rebel-held Idlib may amount to crimes against humanity, Human Rights
Watch said Thursday, calling for sanctions against top commanders. The rights
watchdog published a 167-page report entitled "Targeting Life in Idlib" that
documents 46 air and ground attacks on civilian facilities hit in the province.
The attacks "were apparent war crimes and may amount to crimes against
humanity", HRW said. The Syrian military and its Russian ally carried out the
attacks between April 2019 and March 2020, killing at least 224 civilians,
according to HRW. The New York-based rights group stressed that the incidents it
researched were only a fraction of the total number of attacks on civilians in
that period. "The Syrian-Russian alliance strikes on Idlib's hospitals, schools,
and markets showed callous disregard for civilian life," said HRW executive
Kenneth Roth. "The repeated unlawful attacks appear part of a deliberate
military strategy to destroy civilian infrastructure and force out the
population, making it easier for the Syrian government to retake control," he
said. The military campaign against the last rebel bastion in the country, home
to about three million people -- many of whom fled opposition-held towns
recaptured by the government -- has displaced around a million residents. A
truce reached in early March has largely stemmed the fighting. HRW based its
report on interviews with more than 100 victims and witnesses, analysis of
hundreds of photographs and videos taken on the site of attacks and on satellite
imagery. The group called for a UN resolution urging member states to impose
targeted sanctions on officials responsible for the civilian deaths. It named 10
Syrian and Russian civilian and military officials at the top of the chain of
command behind the abuses against hospitals, schools and other civilian
infrastructure. "Concerted international efforts are needed to demonstrate that
there are consequences for unlawful attacks, to deter future atrocities, and to
show that no one can elude accountability for grave crimes because of their rank
or position," Roth said.
US VP nominee Harris suspends travels after staffer tests
positive for COVID-19
The Associated Press/Thursday 15 October 2020
Joe Biden's presidential campaign said Thursday that vice presidential nominee
Kamala Harris will suspend in-person events until Monday after two people
associated with the campaign tested positive for coronavirus. The campaign said
Biden had no exposure, though he and Harris spent several hours campaigning
together in Arizona on October 8. Harris was scheduled to travel Thursday to
North Carolina for events encouraging voters to cast early ballots. The campaign
told reporters Thursday morning that Harris' communications director and a
traveling staff member for her travel to Arizona tested positive after that
October 8 trip. Harris and Biden spent several hours together that day through
multiple campaign stops, private meetings and a joint appearance in front of
reporters at an airport. They were masked at all times in public, and aides said
they were masked in private, as well. Biden and Harris have each had multiple
negative tests since then.Biden is scheduled to attend an ABC News town hall
airing live at 8 p.m. EDT.
Hackers launch large-scale attack on key Iranian
institutions: Official
Reuters, Dubai/Thursday 15 October 2020
Hackers launched large-scale attacks on two Iranian government institutions this
week, a senior official said on Thursday, without giving details on the targets
or the suspected perpetrators. Some government bodies had since temporarily shut
down internet services as a precaution, Abolghasem Sadeghi, from the
government's Information Technology Organization, told state TV. “The cyber
attacks which happened on Monday and Tuesday are under investigation,” Sadeghi
said. They were “important and on a large scale,” he added. Iran says it is on
high alert for online assaults, which it has blamed in the past on the United
States and other foreign states. US officials said in October 2019 that the
United States had carried out a cyber-attack on Iran after drone strikes on
Saudi Arabian oil facilities, which Washington and Riyadh blamed on Tehran. Iran
denied involvement in the attacks, which were claimed by Yemen’s Iran-backed
Houthi militia. The United States and other Western powers have also accused
Iran of trying to disrupt and break into their networks. Sources told Reuters
this April that hackers working in Iran's interests had targeted the personal
email accounts of staff at the World Health Organization during the coronavirus
outbreak. Tehran denied any involvement. Tensions between Tehran and Washington
have escalated since 2018 when US President Donald Trump withdrew from Iran's
2015 nuclear deal with world powers and reimposed sanctions that have crippled
Iran's economy.
US blacklisting harms Sudan’s path to democracy: Sudanese
PM
AFP, Khartoum/Sunday 11 October 2020
Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok has said that keeping his country on a US
blacklist of state sponsors of terrorism is endangering its path towards
democracy, the Financial Times reported. The designation dates back to 1993,
when the country under longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir become an outcast for
having hosted Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. In an interview published Sunday,
Hamdok said sanctions linked to the designation were “crippling our economy,”
adding that Sudan’s removal from the list would be a “game changer.” “We are
isolated from the world,” Hamdok said, noting that Sudan had expelled bin Laden
over two decades ago, and that Bashir’s regime was overthrown last year.
“Sudanese people have never been terrorists. This was the deeds of the former
regime,” he told the Financial Times. Concerning speculation that Sudan could
normalize ties with Israel if its terror listing were removed, Hamdok said: “We
would like to see these two tracks addressed separately.” Last month, Israel
signed US-brokered deals to normalize ties with the United Arab Emirates and
Bahrain, and the administration of US President Donald Trump wants Sudan to
follow suit.
Bashir, wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of genocide
and crimes against humanity in Darfur, was convicted of corruption and is
currently on trial in the capital Khartoum for the 1989 coup that brought him to
power. Hamdok said he had spoken with the ICC about the option of trying Bashir
in Sudan, potentially in a “hybrid court,” the paper reported, but that Hamdok
considered reforming Sudan’s judiciary in order to try Bashir itself would be
the best option. Hamdok also said there were no guarantees that Sudan’s
democratic transition would hold until elections planned for 2022.
“Transitions are always messy. They are non-linear and they don’t travel in one
direction.” Concerning the country’s tanking economy, the prime minister said a
landmark peace deal signed this month with a coalition of rebel groups would
result in savings for the government.
Sudan’s economy is in crisis, laid low by long years of civil war under Bashir’s
rule, US sanctions and the 2011 secession of the oil-rich south. The government
declared a state of emergency last month to avert a further downturn. With Sudan
no longer a “war economy,” the proportion of revenue spent on the military would
drop from up to 80 percent down to 10-15 percent, the Financial Times reported
him as saying.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 15-16/2020
Iraq’s Prime Minister al-Kadhimi should put the killers of
protesters on trial
Zana Gulmohamad/Al Arabiya/October 15/2020
Iraqi protesters have given Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi an ultimatum: he
has until October 25 to prosecute those who have killed around 600 and wounded
30,000 protesters over the last year. Al-Kadhimi should start to put the killers
on trial before the situation deteriorates and restore confidence that Iraq is
on the right track. News is leaking that pro-Iran militias in Iraq are gearing
up again to target either the protesters, Baghdad’s Green Zone – home to the US
embassy and other diplomatic missions as well as key governmental and
legislative bodies that represent the heart of the Iraqi state – or both amid
the preparations for the next wave of protests. If this happens, more disorder
is expected and al-Kadhimi could lose control of the situation on the ground.
This is despite the fact that over the last few days pro-Iran militias announced
they would suspend their attacks against the Green Zone and the US in Iraq if
the US withdraws its troops. The protests known as the October Revolution began
on October 1, 2019 have witnessed Iraqis rallying for a range of causes, from
calls to end corruption to a change in the political system and an end to
foreign interference in the country. Without addressing these issues, protests
will persist and the country will descend further into chaos. Since the rise of
tensions between the US and Iran, the protesters have been further suppressed by
pro-Iran militias, reflecting Iran and its militias’ fear that their foothold is
slipping.
While Iraq’s top Shia cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani supported the protesters
last year, Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and pro-Iran militias leaders have
denounced them. Pro-Iran militias have been targeting, killing, and kidnapping
protesters. This puts the protesters against pro-Iran factions and Iran’s
attempt to control Iraq.
Unsuccessfully, pro-Iran militias tried to co-opt the protesters for their own
ends. The protests have been littered with sentiments against foreign
interference including anti-Iranian slogans and they are filled with Iraqi
nationalist mottos, songs, and the rise of women’s voices. This demonstrates
that Iran and pro-Iran militias have limitations in Iraq and a new generation is
emerging that deprecates traditional sectarian parties. But if the fragmented
and disorganized protest movement is to succeed, it needs to organize, set a
clear plan, form a list of demands and decry those who attack public buildings.
This is not only to achieve its goals, but also to counter accusations from
political parties and pro-Iran militias that the movement will produce chaos. A
recent incident in the Shia shrine city of Karbala, where protesters were beaten
by guards that protect the shrines because they chanted anti-establishment
slogans and commemorated protesters who had been killed, has given an
opportunity to pro-Iran militias and the Shia politician and cleric Muqtada al-Sadr
to accuse the protesters of being pro-Ba’athist and extremists. The protesters
should continue to express their demands, but they should also take into account
that demonstrations around the Shrines could be viewed as inappropriate by some
Shia entities.
Al-Kadhimi’s position
In an interview al-Kadhimi said that October (referring to the October protests)
is a turning point in Iraq’s history because the people feel that Iraq is in
danger. On one hand, al-Kadhimi’s position is a blessing because he is not
affiliated to a political party— he had been heading the Iraqi National
Intelligence Service – which gives him the agility to pursue the protesters’
demands. On the other hand, al-Kadhimi cannot deliver on many of the protesters’
promises, as he does not have control over the pro-Iran militias or other
political parties that may obstruct the prosecution of the killers and block
tangible reform.
Al-Kadhimi’s attempt to appease both protesters and political factions,
including those who are associated with the killings, could undermine his
position. Over the last week, the federal government began a drill and mobilized
some of the heavy weaponry in the Green Zone to protect it in case the situation
slips out of control. Al-Kadhimi needs the international community and
organizations such as the United Nations that can provide him with an edge to
charge the killers as it will show that the Iraqi state is able to protect the
Green Zone, including the international organizations, as well as deliver
justice for the killings.
Although al-Kadhimi met with some of the protesters on the streets, some
criticism of him is emerging among protesters, accusing him of being slow to
fulfil his promises. To prevent a further loss of faith, Al-Kadhimi should move
to put the killers on trial as the first step for reform, and to show the
protesters that there is hope in Iraq. Time is ticking.
*Dr. Zana Gulmohamad completed a Ph.D. in international politics from the
University of Sheffield, UK, where he was a teaching associate for six years. He
has written extensively on Iraq and the wider Middle East, including a book
chapter “The evolution of Iraq’s Hashd al-Sha’bi (Popular Mobilization Forces)”
with Palgrave Macmillan and a book “The making of foreign policy in Iraq:
Political factions and ruling elites” with I.B. Tauris. Gulmohamad has worked as
a consultant with various organizations, including National Security
Innovations, which is based in Boston.
Artificial intelligence has been key to fighting
coronavirus – it can do more too
Munib Mesinovic/Al Arabiya/October 15/2020
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to revolutionize all aspects of
human society as part of a “fourth industrial revolution.” COVID-19 has
accelerated the adoption of AI and forced governments and the public alike to
adapt to a new world in which effectively deploying these technologies in key
areas cannot just improve lives, but also save them. Great strides can be made
to transform economies and communities by focusing on the integration of AI in
two key sectors: education and healthcare.
AI has played a key role in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. Before
the WHO notified the public of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, an AI health
monitoring company using the “BlueDot” algorithim had already detected the
outbreak and predicted its spread to its customers. Since then, AI has been
applied to repurposing drugs, enabling safer air travel, sharing critical
information to Arabic-speakers, and in facilitating test and trace in several
countries. While these efforts might have helped in managing the crisis, AI has
encountered limitations that do not allow us to use it to its full potential.
The obvious reason for this hindrance is the lack of large, clean, and processed
datasets. AI works by recognizing patterns: the more data it has available to
learn from, the more accurate it will be when encountering new situations like
modelling a new COVID-19 spread or detecting an infection from CT scans. The
solution is as equally obvious: create more datasets. To do so, we, like AI,
need to learn from our mistakes and build more flexible systems that can be
quickly deployed in collecting data and managing it ethically and responsibly.
The creation of these new systems necessitates a skilled workforce familiar with
the fundamental principles of AI and at least somewhat experienced in its
applications. As with any skill or knowledge, education is instrumental in
building a knowledge-based sustainable system capable of responding not just to
COVID-19, but future challenges with creativity, consistency, and coherence.
While there are plenty of open access platforms for teaching AI, having a
standardized and systemic approach to nurturing next generations of leaders and
thinkers makes it possible for everyone to have an opportunity to learn while
also enabling a smoother transition into the work environment.
Of course, this strategy might be pursued gradually, by first encouraging
teaching AI principles (with applications) interfaced with coursework in
economics, natural sciences, public policy, and engineering, then integrating it
in high school curricula and so on. The benefits of introducing AI to high
school students and children include stimulating critical thinking and problem
solving, helping diversify the STEM landscape, and enabling them to understand
the technology that increasingly surrounds them in everyday life. Several
countries are already pursuing and leading on this path. The UAE, for example,
just opened the first university solely dedicated to AI, and innovative
technology is a centrepiece in multiple national agendas like Agenda 2071 and
the National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2031. To move forward in this
direction, we should encourage young people to explore AI by including it in our
educational curricula gradually and thus enable them to help us respond
effectively to global challenges to come.
As already mentioned, AI has helped healthcare services to track the spread of
the virus and help find treatment for the disease, but AI has the potential to
do much more. COVID-19 has forced our healthcare system to prioritize clinical
staff and serious afflictions, thereby speeding up the process of moving other
patients or care receivers to remote care. In combination with telehealth or
telemedicine, AI can make it possible to effectively relegate routine check-ups
and diagnoses with remote monitoring. There are both academic research groups
and companies actively focusing on monitoring, predicting, and diagnosing
diseases with AI ranging from diabetes and cardiovascular disease to cancer. It
is important to note that the social implications of AI are also an area of
research and should be considered by taking into account occurrence of bias and
data ethics. This can be addressed by increasing the diversity of the data so
that, for example, the algorithm does not privilege white patients over people
of colour. Choosing what attributes of the data matter for the algorithm is also
a subjective decision that needs to be made carefully and ethically.
In certain cases, AI helped identify diagnoses doctors missed or assisted in the
delivery of better care. Other research is looking at at-a-distance surgeries
made possible in partnership with advances in robotics that can bring the
operating room to people who might not usually have access to one. Mayo Clinic
and other hospitals in the United States and Europe are already deploying a
version of this technology in traditional surgical procedures.
AI is not here to replace doctors but to enable a more effective healthcare
system and the allocation of resources. We need to comprehensively integrate the
technology into our healthcare system by both revamping existing modes of care
and inventing new ones. This cannot be done without consultation with
clinicians, specialists, and healthcare professionals as they would still be
“leading in the operating room.” Our first steps should therefore include
training for doctors to teach them to operate the software which needs to be
deployed through collaboration between the healthcare, insurance industries, and
the public sector. Doing so will guarantee better healthcare and a more
resilient and healthy population amid enduring global health challenges like
COVID-19.
We also must face the possibility that the pandemic might be here to stay longer
than initially expected, or that other similar challenges might appear soon
after. The strategies for developing stronger systems in healthcare should be
boldly pursued, taking full advantage of the technological progress we have made
and can still make. In the end, while the pandemic might have forced our hand in
implementing these changes, they were always a step in the right direction –
improving quality of life and advancing our society.
*Munib Mesinovic is a recent graduate of NYU Abu Dhabi and a current Masters
student in Computer Science at the University of Oxford. He is a UAE Rhodes
Scholar and the first Bosnian Rhodes Scholar. He tweets @munibmesinovic
An Election Not Like the Others in America
Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 October, 2020
Robert Ford is a former US ambassador to Syria and Algeria and a senior fellow
at the Middle East Institute for Near East Policy in Washington
Many people are worried about the November 2 election result and its
repercussions. Joseph Biden has a comfortable advantage in the opinion polls,
including in key big states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that
supported Trump in 2016. Some analysts believe there could be a Democratic Party
tsunami that allows the party to capture the White House and both chambers of
Congress. In addition to the White House, the Senate is extremely important for
the Democratic Party because the Senate controls approval for all the senior
officials in a President’s administration such as ministers and undersecretaries
and ambassadors and new judges. And its approval is necessary for the annual
government budget. The Senate under Republican Party control in 2014 impeded
every initiative of President Obama. For the Democratic Party to recapture the
Senate in the Congress in 2020, it must win the election for the senator where I
live in the state of Maine, at the extreme northeast of the country.
In the debates between the candidates for Congress here and in other states, the
issues are the same: health care and the virus, conservative judges or liberal
judges, and questions about taxes and the economy. In the several debates
between candidates, Russia and China are absent, and the Middle East is far from
the minds of party leaders and supporters.
Now that I am retired from the diplomatic service I work as a volunteer for one
of the parties. In the past, party supporters would visit each house and
apartment to encourage voters to vote for their party candidates. With the
virus, now we try to speak to voters on the telephone, and I have called
hundreds of people in the districts and cities near my home. Most of the voters
where I live support the other party. I have written in this newspaper before
about the deep political divisions in America and Maine has the same problem.
When I call a house that supports the other party, the person hangs up
immediately without a word. The only ones who do not hang up immediately curse
me and my party first and then hang up. In the hundreds of telephone calls, I
have not had one political discussion with a supporter from the other party. And
when you meet people in our small city at a store, at the church, in the library
you rarely discuss politics because it is a painful subject. This is not how
Americans thought about politics 20 years ago.
My party colleagues and I erected signs in front of our houses and on the
streets to encourage voters to choose our candidates, and sometimes supporters
of the other party steal them so we put out more signs. I became friends with
some neighbors because of politics. After they saw my party’s signs in front of
our house, some people I didn’t know came to me and requested signs for their
homes. In America’s suburbs, you usually don’t know your neighbors so the party
signs enabled us to become acquainted after we discovered that we have similar
political views. This also shows the polarization in America: you only know and
speak about politics with people whose political views resemble your political
views. This cannot be healthy for a democratic system.
In addition to the virus, there is also a new fear of violence before and after
the election from armed militias. There are no militias where I live. However,
the federal police arrested six members of a conservative militia last week who
planned to kidnap the Democratic governor of Michigan. It’s the first time I
have ever heard of a conspiracy like this in the United States. Unless there is
a Democratic Party tsunami victory on November 2, before we can know the final
election result we will have to wait for weeks after November 2 for every vote
in every state to be counted. There will be many cases in the courts about the
voting procedures and the counting of ballots. Will militias from the right or
the left deploy in front of court buildings and election centers to intimidate
local officials? Will there be violence between conservative armed groups and
leftists like happened in Denver city last Saturday? This was shocking because
Denver is a rich, prosperous city. If there is no final election result by
January 20 when the new president must take the oath of office, what will
happen? And most important, how can American citizens reduce the sharpness of
political divisions? Do they want to reconcile? It is clear that this election
won’t heal those deep divisions in American society regardless of who wins.
The Real 21st Century Property Baron Doesn't Live in Mar-a-Lago
Shuli Ren/Bloomberg/October, 15/2020
In a bond world that doesn’t pay interest, China’s real-estate developers are a
real standout. They have survived the European debt crisis, Beijing’s draconian
deleveraging campaigns and the Covid-19 lockdown. Each time the market pulls
back, bankers tell their wealthy clients to buy, for fear of missing out.
At the core of this lucrative sector sits a property mogul who has demonstrated
uncanny, gravity-defying survival skills. Over the years, short sellers have set
him in their crosshairs, regulators have rebuked his shareholding structure, and
his company’s debt pile has crossed Beijing’s red line. But Hui Ka Yan, the
billionaire chairman of China Evergrande Group, is still around.
Just this week, Hui was able to rope in Norway’s sovereign wealth fund for its
share sale. While the placement was downsized and offered at a 15% discount,
you’ve got to marvel at the A-listers Hui attracted given recent news reports
that Evergrande had warned of an impending credit crunch. Who would want to own
the stock of a company that struggles to repay its debt? Hui is the new
21st-century property baron.
Or consider that in a matter of days, Hui managed to convince his investors to
roll over about two-thirds of the 130 billion yuan ($19.4 billion) of hybrid
securities due in January, at a time when the world was losing faith in his
empire. Suning Appliance Group Co., one of the largest investors with 20 billion
yuan at stake, made clear it would demand repayment to cover its own mounting
debt pile. Suning ended up signing the new deal.
In the next few months, Hui will look to raise capital by listing his
property-management and electric vehicle subsidiaries. Evergrande said it is
hoping to raise at least 34 billion yuan in the mainland by selling a stake in
its EV unit at no less than HK$25 ($3.23) per share, or about 10% above the
current market price. As it is, the Hong Kong-listed shares of China Evergrande
New Energy Vehicle Group Ltd. are richly valued thanks to their Tesla-like hype.
Eighteen shareholders, including the parent, own 94.8% of the stock, the
Securities and Futures Commission complained in August.
A warning from the regulator isn’t good for public relations, but Hui can
weather this storm. He can dissolve a debt crisis with the help of powerful
friends. He can reach out to wide social circles, from reluctant suppliers to
Hong Kong tycoons, who will put out public filings showcasing their support at
the darkest hours. When he has to peel off assets, he makes sure they are sold
at a steep premium.
But Hui makes you pay for that scintillating coupon — at least psychologically.
As the developer walked toward the brink in recent weeks, investors laid awake
at night, crunching Evergrande’s cash flow math in their heads.
As of June, the company sat on 141 billion yuan in cash but had 396 billion yuan,
or 47% of its borrowings, due within a year. With $27 billion in offshore bonds,
the company is Asia’s largest dollar junk-debt issuer. Its dollar bonds due 2025
are yielding around 16%.
During the October Golden Week holiday, investors watched nervously as
Evergrande offered its deepest discount in history to boost apartment sales. The
developer could generate 380 billion yuan in cash from contracted sales in the
second half of the year, estimates Standard Chartered Plc. The good news is
that, as of Oct. 8, Evergrande had already achieved 91.1% of its full-year
target. The bad news? Hui has many bills to pay.
Of Evergrande’s short-term borrowings, 127 billion yuan, or about one-third of
the total, come from capital markets and trust companies. The rest originate
from construction loans, which could be rolled over under normal conditions. If
Hui can convince his bankers that building activity is proceeding as usual, you
just might get your money back.
With a concentrated shareholding structure and frequent backroom sales to family
and friends, it’s worth asking if Evergrande can find genuine outside investors
at all. But if Hui can pull off these acrobatics, those thirsty for yield will
come. After all, many have placed their faith in blank-check companies this
year, believing those who run them can bring undervalued businesses to public
markets. So why not Hui, who has a long track record of persuasive salesmanship
and survival? Unlike Donald Trump, whose companies declared bankruptcy many
times, Evergrande’s guru seems to get the real art of the deal.
Too Many Ships Could Swamp America's Military
James Stavridis/Bloomberg/October, 15/2020
As a young lieutenant commander back in the 1980s, I worked on an analysis for a
strategy referred to as “The 600-Ship Navy.” This was at the height of the Cold
War and the pinnacle of President Ronald Reagan’s defense buildup. I was on the
staff of the chief of naval operations, the service’s highest-ranking uniformed
officer, and we worked long hours in the Pentagon justifying such a large number
of ships.
All that work came to naught when the Soviet Union collapsed, and the Navy has
been largely shrinking since. It is now down to around 297 ships, despite
promises from the Donald Trump administration to increase that to at least 355,
a number many analysts agree is the minimum needed for a battle force suited to
America’s 21st century challenges.
Basically, the Navy does four things: Power projection (moving missiles,
aircraft and Marines into position); sea control (ensuring the free movement of
commercial shipping, which is responsible for 90% of global trade); strategic
deterrence (submarines carrying nuclear ballistic missiles are the ultimate
deterrent force); and strategic sealift (moving ammunition, supplies, medical
care and other logistics to the Army and Air Force when they are
forward-deployed.)
Navies do some other things, such as “showing the flag” globally and
freedom-of-navigation patrols. These demonstrate the inviolability of the high
seas when nations try to appropriate chunks of the ocean’s surface (as China
does in the South China Sea).
Navies also function specifically as a deterrent to the fleets of the other
military great powers, in this case Russia and China. It is a complex mission,
and how the US fleet goes about accomplishing it involves the combination of raw
war-fighting capability; the tactics and techniques to use all that firepower,
both offensively and defensively; and the positioning of hundreds of ships
around the world.
All of those factors combine to determine the optimal fleet size. So it was
notable last week when Secretary of Defense Mark Esper gave details of a fleet
he saw growing to more than 500 ships, a considerable and sudden jump. How did
things escalate from a “need” for 355 warships to a request for 500? And, above
all, is this a sensible and achievable goal?
The secretary’s new number is the result of a long-delayed study called Battle
Force 2045. Most of what the outline calls for makes sense, given the rise of
China’s navy and the emergence of new technologies that will revolutionize
combat at sea.
First, the Pentagon strategy recognizes the importance of nuclear-powered attack
submarines as the most “survivable” part of the Navy. The new plan calls for up
to 80 of them.
The most visible arm of the Navy’s strike capability, of course, are the huge
nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. Here the plan envisions perhaps decreasing
that number to as low as eight (but maybe staying as high as the current 11),
and enhancing the role of at least six so-called light carriers. The latter are
large-deck amphibious assault ships (like the Bonhomme Richard, which
unfortunately burned at the pier in San Diego a few weeks ago) that can carry
the new F-35B Lightning stealth fighter-attack jets.
The biggest new addition will be an investment in up to 240 unmanned ships.
These drones could be programmed to do high-risk, in-close surveillance, provide
“on-call” magazines of missiles, conduct minesweeping or minelaying, and
undertake freedom of navigation patrols.
My beloved surface combatant force would include about 90 large ships (cruisers
and destroyers) and would increase the number of smaller surface combatants such
as frigates, corvettes and littoral combat ships to perhaps 70 total. This would
include the new Constellation Class frigates for which contracts are just being
awarded.
The new plan also calls for more combat logistics ships, up to 90, capable of
refueling and rearming warships in forward combat. For the Marines, there would
be around 60 ships with better ability to conduct quick strikes well behind
enemy lines at sea and ashore.
Clearly, buying so many ships will stress the defense budget. Resources will
have to be diverted from the Army, Air Force and the defense agencies. Some
critics are rightfully concerned about the long-term sustainment costs, such as
maintenance and manning.
One very senior former Department of Defense official said to me that “the Navy
has sacrificed itself on the altar of forward presence,” meaning that if it
didn’t insist on having so many ships forward-deployed, it could operate fewer,
surge in times of trouble, and have the resources for all the unavoidable
operations, training and maintenance costs. There is a certain logic to that.
The right overall number of ships is probably at the lower end of the estimates
in the defense secretary’s presentation, some 350-400. More warships would rack
up big bills in support costs over time, and may not be necessary if we take
advantage of new technology and tactics.
There are savings to be had in unmanned systems, certainly, perhaps more in
small underwater drones than in the air and on the sea’s surface. The Navy can
do more to compensate for lower ship numbers than requested through offensive
cyber-capability, and it will need more robust cyberdefenses.
The idea of returning the Marines to their roots as sea warriors (after a couple
of decades fighting ashore in Iraq and Afghanistan) makes sense, especially if
integrated with Navy SEAL and Army Special Forces capabilities. And the idea of
reducing the number of nuclear carriers while focusing on the “light” carriers
(which are still about two-thirds the size of a supercarrier) is a good one.
In terms of positioning, using more overseas homeports — say in Greece or Israel
in the Mediterranean, or in Guam in the Pacific — to cut down transit times
could allow stationing fewer ships.
It is tempting, as a retired admiral, for me to say, “Oh yes, 500 ships is
terrific.” But more careful analysis needs to be done, not only on the most
effective fleet size but also the impact a growing Navy will have on the budgets
of the other services; on potential new operational patterns and the positioning
of the fleet; and on how technology can reduce costs.
All that will have to wait until after next month’s presidential election, of
course. But there are some things the Pentagon approach has correct already: The
355-ship Navy is indeed a floor; new ideas and technology are needed; and no
matter how exquisite an individual ship’s war-fighting capability, quantity has
a quality all its own.
Capitalism Caused Climate Change; It Must Also Be the
Solution
David Fickling/Bloomberg/October, 15/2020
Can the world shrink its emissions footprint without immiserating its
population?
We’re seeing a brutal real-world experiment on that front right now. The
coronavirus pandemic has caused the biggest drop in emissions in history. It has
also resulted in more than a million deaths and the worst economic downturn
since the Great Depression.
That’s just a foretaste of what’s to come, though. To remain within the carbon
budgets needed to give a 50-50 chance of keeping global warming below 1.5
degrees Celsius, the world would need to repeat the 7% annual decline in
emissions seen in 2020 every year until 2050. Think this has been a bad year for
human welfare? The coming decades risk being even worse unless we can rapidly
sever the centuries-long link between economic growth and carbon pollution. One
argument that’s gained ground in recent years is that growth itself is the
problem. The issue is one of “capitalism versus the climate,” to quote the
subtitle of a 2014 book by Canadian journalist Naomi Klein. “All you can talk
about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth,” Swedish activist
Greta Thunberg told a 2019 UN summit: “How dare you!”
Perhaps instead of trying to make the climate subservient to the needs of
expanding gross domestic product, we need to cut our economic coat according to
our atmospheric cloth?
The International Energy Agency’s latest World Energy Outlook provides one
reason why that’s unlikely to work.
The outlook, released Tuesday, is structured around scenarios reflecting
different policy settings and how they’ll affect energy consumption and
emissions over the coming decades. This year, two are new: one illustrating the
path to net-zero emissions by 2050, and one showing how a delayed recovery from
the pandemic might alter the picture.
Such a recession would indeed reduce emissions in the near term. Until 2023, the
Delayed Recovery Scenario sends less carbon into the atmosphere than the
Sustainable Development Scenario, which is meant to model the path to keeping
global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.
After that, though, things fall apart. Thanks to ongoing economic weakness,
governments and businesses lose the capacity to carry out the spending needed to
remake the world’s energy system. Investment in fossil fuels falls by 10%
relative to expectations under current policies, but spending on renewables and
nuclear drops by 5% as well, so that $2.2 trillion less is spent by 2030.
Rather than investing to replace our power plants and appliances with
lower-carbon alternatives, we eke out their polluting lives a little bit longer.
By 2030, annual emissions are about 29% higher than they would be under
Sustainable Development.
This desktop model of how the world could develop reflects a profound truth. The
atmosphere can accommodate about 500 billion metric tons more carbon dioxide to
give an even chance of keeping warming below 1.5 degrees — but the world’s
current industrial base is currently pumping out roughly 33 billion tons a year,
and will continue to do so unless we can replace it.
Retrofitting the world’s energy systems is going to require vast sums of money.
Renewable power alone will need an average $569 billion of investment every year
over the coming decade under the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario. That’s
almost twice the rate seen over the past five years, and not far behind what the
entire oil and gas sector would spend under the same settings. If anything, the
world needs a target that’s more ambitious still.
If we can get up to speed, that volume of spending will create its own momentum.
One justified complaint of anti-capitalist climate activists is that our
political systems frequently put their thumbs on the scale to favor powerful
incumbent businesses, which at present are mostly the polluting ones. But a
system where investment dollars are flowing away from fossil fuels and toward
decarbonization is one where power, too, is shifting away from the carbon
economy.
Even under the IEA’s less ambitious Stated Policies Scenario, the $15.14
trillion that gets spent globally on fossil fuel generation and production by
2040 is smaller than the $15.97 trillion spent on renewables and nuclear — and
doesn’t include the amounts that go to energy efficiency and grid networks.
Under the Sustainable Development Scenario, which has historically often been a
better guide to the path of the energy transition, low-carbon power ends up with
$2.70 of spending for every $1 going to fossil fuel extraction and generation.
That’s a world in which renewables will increasingly set the rules of the game,
encouraging governments to remove the remaining subsidies that support oil, gas
and coal.
Since the industrial revolution, the fossil-fueled engine of capitalist growth
has conspired to put the world in its current climate crisis. Harnessing that
power to drive the carbon transition is now our best hope of turning that
disaster around.