LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 15-16/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
God, as chosen you, because our message of the gospel that came to you not in word only, but also in power and in the Holy Spirit and with full conviction
First Letter to the Thessalonians 01/01-10/:”Paul, Silvanus, and Timothy, To the church of the Thessalonians in God the Father and the Lord Jesus Christ: Grace to you and peace. We always give thanks to God for all of you and mention you in our prayers, constantly remembering before our God and Father your work of faith and labour of love and steadfastness of hope in our Lord Jesus Christ. For we know, brothers and sisters beloved by God, that he has chosen you, because our message of the gospel came to you not in word only, but also in power and in the Holy Spirit and with full conviction; just as you know what kind of people we proved to be among you for your sake. And you became imitators of us and of the Lord, for in spite of persecution you received the word with joy inspired by the Holy Spirit, so that you became an example to all the believers in Macedonia and in Achaia. For the word of the Lord has sounded forth from you not only in Macedonia and Achaia, but in every place where your faith in God has become known, so that we have no need to speak about it. For the people of those regions report about us what kind of welcome we had among you, and how you turned to God from idols, to serve a living and true God, and to wait for his Son from heaven, whom he raised from the dead Jesus, who rescues us from the wrath that is coming.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 15-16/2019
Security, Political Messages behind Hezbollah’s Threat to Lebanese Banks
Lebanon, Cyprus to Work on Curbing Migrant Arrivals by Boat
Lebanese PM: Bassil’s Visit to Syria is His Own Business
Aoun Orders Investigations into 'Idle' Rescue Planes as Fires Raze Acres of Land
Mountainous Wildfires Continue into Second Day, PM Assures Help on the Way
Chouf and Aley Wildfires Subside with Rain as New Blazes Erupt in Metn, Keserwan
Strong Lebanon Bloc: We Want to Turn Tables on Corruption, Financial Situation
Nasrallah, Franjieh Stress Need for 'Direct, Official Dialogue' with Syria
Lebanon, Cyprus to Work on Curbing Migrant Arrivals by Boat
Hariri Chairs Emergency Meeting about Massive Fires
Syrian Ambassador Says Bassil’s Remarks 'Uncalculated

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published October 15-16/2019
US Slaps Sanctions on Turkey over Syria Operation
EU Condemns Turkey over Syria, but No Formal Arms Ban
Syria Kurds Defend Key Town as Turkey Ignores U.S.
Turkish, Kurdish Forces Battle for Syria's Ras al-Ayn
Turkish Families Flee Kurdish Mortars
Erdogan: Syria Offensive to Continue until 'Objectives Achieved'
Foreigners Exit Northeastern Syria Fearing Regime Reach
Qatar Again Defends Turkey Incursion in Syria
Egypt’s Ex-President Mubarak Getting Ready for Rare Appearance
Brexit Deal 'Possible this Week', Says EU's Barnier

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published October 15-16/2019
Security, Political Messages behind Hezbollah’s Threat to Lebanese Banks/Youssef Diab/Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/2019
If Only the Sultan Had Learned from the Tsar/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/2019
A Refugee Invasion of Europe? Erdogan Is Bluffing/Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/2019
As fate of ISIS prisoners in Syria grows more unpredictable, RCMP has still not charged any of the Canadians/Stewart.bell/globalnews/October 15/2019
What’s the Point of the Economics Nobel?/Mervyn King/Bloomberg//October 15/2019
If Only the Sultan Had Learned from the Tsar/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/2019
ISIS and Iran are the big winners in Syria/Prof. Eyal Zisser/TOI/October 15/2019
Turkish media, all supporting the invasion, would call the murder of Khalaf a “neutralization” of a “terrorist.”/SETH J. FRANTZMAN, JPOST/October 15/2019
Terror Attacks in France: A Culture of Denial/ Alain Destexhe/ Gatestone Institut/October 15/2019
Bolton's Purge, Trump's Obama Moments/by Jiri Valenta and Leni Friedman Valenta/ Gatestone Institut/October 15/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published October 15-16/2019
Security, Political Messages behind Hezbollah’s Threat to Lebanese Banks
Youssef Diab/Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/2019
Hezbollah’s threats to take to the streets to confront Lebanese bank measures hold security and political messages to local and foreign powers.
The Iran-backed party had threatened to stage protests against banks that adhere to US sanctions against its leaders and economic institutions.
The threat had alarmed observers, who expressed their concern that Iran may seize control of Lebanon’s financial stability in order to draw Washington’s attention and lure it to the negotiations table.
The pro-Hezbollah local Lebanese daily, al-Akhbar, revealed that the party leadership has outlined several steps, including street protests to confront the banks.
The party will not stand idly by as the banks and other institutions adhere to American sanctions, it reported.
The daily said the party had taken the decision to confront the banks, but it has yet to decide on the way to do so.
While the party fell short on announcing the date for such rallies, a banking source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Hezbollah threat jeopardizes security and “gives its supporters the green light to attack and storm banks.”
“There are no fears on the financial sector and people’s deposits in the banks where liquidity is available,” it added. “However, any street protest would create concern and confusion among the people.”
“Banks play no role in the sanctions,” he stressed, saying people should instead protest against officials who have driven Lebanon to the abyss.
Economic expert Dr. Sami Nader told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hezbollah’s message is primarily aimed against the US, saying that it can target two Lebanese institutions that Washington deems a red line: The Lebanese army and banking sector.
Hezbollah previously attempted to target Army Commander General Joseph Aoun when it brought up the case of Amer al-Fakhoury, a Lebanese who had collaborated with Israel, he explained.
The party failed in its efforts and therefore, now set its sights on the banking sector, he noted. Nader wondered whether Lebanese banks should refuse to abide by the US sanctions and suffer the same fate as the Jammal Trust Bank that liquidated itself last month. The political aspect of Hezbollah’s threats is related to the ongoing US conflict with Iran. Coordinator of the March 14 General Secretariat, former deputy Fares Souaid told Asharq Al-Awsat on Monday that the party follows Iranian instructions.
He said Tehran wants to attract the attention of the US and the world by creating tensions and destabilizing the Arab world.
He said that Iran started with the “war on tankers, then attacked Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia and is now trying to manipulate Lebanon’s monetary stability.”
“Washington is aware that the banks are the backbone of Lebanon’s financial and economic stability and there are concerns that Iran would fulfill its pledge to target the banks. However, the US will not come to the rescue of the banking sector,” he warned. “We take these threats seriously and realize that the US is not concerned with saving the sector,” he continued, while questioning the government’s silence over the issue. “Lebanon is now hostage to Iran’s wishes with the approval of some government forces, especially the Free Patriotic Movement, headed by Gebran Bassil,” Souaid said.

Lebanon, Cyprus to Work on Curbing Migrant Arrivals by Boat
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 October, 2019
Lebanese Defense Minister Elias Bou Saab said his country and Cyprus have agreed to work together on curbing boat loads of migrants from reaching the east Mediterranean island nation. He said after talks with his Cypriot counterpart on Tuesday that Lebanon would pass on information to Cypriot authorities to better coordinate in heading off such arrivals. Bou Saab stressed Lebanon understands Cypriot concerns over such arrivals and that the Lebanese navy had stopped migrants trying to reach Cyprus "many times." He added that the both countries are looking to better coordinate their naval forces. Cyprus officials have said that the EU-member country leads the 28 member-bloc in the number of asylum applications relative to its population.

Lebanese PM: Bassil’s Visit to Syria is His Own Business
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 October, 2019
Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil’s announcement that he was prepared to travel to Syria to discuss the return of Syrian refugees back to their homeland was met with condemnation in Lebanon. Prime Minister Saad Hariri said that if head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Bassil, wanted to discuss the return of refugees, “then that is his business.”“We will be the first to welcome the return, should it happen,” he added. Bassil had declared on Sunday that he “will visit Syria to return the Syrian people to their country just as their army” returned from Lebanon.
Hariri added: “Just as a reminder, the blood of Rafik Hariri returned to the Syrian army to Syria.”The Syrian regime must not used Bassil’s potential visit as a pretext to return to Lebanon “because we do not trust the intentions of the regime when it talks about returning refugees,” he continued.
The country can do without more futile debates and officials are better off discussing how to address the economic crisis, said Hariri. The Syrian military had entered Lebanon in 1976 during the country’s 1975-90 civil war. It withdrew in 2005 in wake of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the current premier’s father. The murder was widely blamed in Lebanon on the Syrian regime, which had expanded its military presence to controlling security and political life in Lebanon. Defense Minister and FPM member Elias Bou Saab defended Bassil’s remarks, saying that if a minister wanted to visit Syria, no one can stop him, noting the diplomatic ties between Beirut and Damascus still stand. Labor Minister and Lebanese Forces member Kamil Abou Suleiman revealed that Bassil’s comments will be discussed at cabinet. Education Minister Akram Shehayyeb said that the government holds the final say in whether a minister would head to Syria or not. If he does decide to go, then it will be deemed a personal visit, he added. Head of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), former MP Walid Jumblat tweeted: “Remember that they entered [Lebanon] on the blood of Kamal Jumblat and left on the blood of Rafik Hariri.”
“You are forging history and subverting your sacrifices and ours,” he said in an indirect reference to Bassil. “You are looting the country and destroying the Taef Accord. You want to bring security to yield out of spite. You are adopting Baath-like approaches, but remember: Foreigners brought you here and the people will throw you out.”

Aoun Orders Investigations into 'Idle' Rescue Planes as Fires Raze Acres of Land
Naharnet/October 15/2019
Lebanon ordered investigations into the reasons that rendered three firefighting Sikorsky helicopters idle, as the country struggles to extinguish wildfires that burned out of control on Tuesday. President Michel Aoun demanded investigations into the reasons that left the Sikorsky's “out of order.” He said parties responsible will be held accountable, the National News Agency reported. Three firefighting Sikorsky helicopters were donated in 2009 to the Lebanese authorities along with a three-year maintenance grant. “The problem started three years later when the maintenance grant of about $ 450,000 ended,” said former Interior Minister Ziad Baroud. All three of these helicopters have been out of service due to a lack of spare parts, according to unnamed sources. The choppers used 4000 liters of water. Strong fires spread in different parts of Lebanon forcing some residents to flee their homes in the middle of the night as the flames reached residential areas in villages south of Beirut. Fire engines were overwhelmed by the flames in the Mount Lebanon region early Tuesday, forcing the Interior Ministry to send riot police engines equipped with water cannons to help. Two small aircraft were sent from the nearby Mediterranean island of Cyprus and are helping in putting out the fires. A heat wave hitting the region and strong winds helped intensify the fires in pine forests around Lebanon and three provinces in neighboring Syria. Prime Minister Saad Hariri said that if the fires turn out to be intentional those behind it "will pay a price." Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan said Cyprus and Greece had responded to Lebanon's call for help."Two Cypriot planes have been working to put out the fires since yesterday," she said on Twitter. "Greece has responded to our request and will send two planes to help us," she added, while Jordan also said it was ready to help. U.N. peacekeeping force UNIFIL, whose members usually patrol the country's southern border with Israel, has also joined in the efforts.

Mountainous Wildfires Continue into Second Day, PM Assures Help on the Way
Naharnet/October 15/2019
Lebanon continued to put out wildfires on Tuesday, which burned acres of land and destroyed dozens of homes in mountainous areas mainly in the Chouf region amid an unprecedented heatwave. The National News Agency reported in the afternoon that "the fires in the Mechref area have been extinguished as a convoy of UNIFIL peacekeepers, vehicles and firefighting vehicles moved to Mazraat al-Dahr and al-Dibbiyeh to contribute to fighting the raging fires."Firefighters and Civil Defense teams had been tackling several blazes in Mechref since Monday night. Prime Minister Saad Hariri said foreign assistance was on its way. "We have made contacts with several states to send in helicopters capable of extinguishing the fire shall it renew at night,” he said. Assistance from Italy and the European Union was expected in four hours, noted Hariri. He asserted that “investigation will be launched to determine the cause of fires.”
Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan earlier announced that aerial assistance from Cyprus to help extinguish wildfires raging since Monday in different mountainous Lebanese regions began early today. She said air tankers from Cyprus dropped water over fires in Mechref. "We have set up an operation room at the Grand Serail and another mobile one on the ground in Mechref to keep up with the latest developments,” said Hassan. The fire started at night in Mechref. It soon extended to the Mount Lebanon towns of Debbiyeh, Baawarta, Damour, Naameh. It scorched wide areas in Lebanon’s western mountains by Tuesday morning. Fires grew out of control overnight as people were evacuated from their homes.As the fires raged overnight, al-Jadeed TV correspondent Halima Tabiaa burst into tears while live on TV, saying she could hear people scream for help inside their homes but no one could reach them. The correspondent's video has since gone viral on social media and foreign media outlets. In Damour, a coastal village south of Beirut, more than a dozen charred cars were seen on the side of a road. Most of the homes nearby escaped the damage. On Tuesday, Civil Defense firefighters said the fire was contained in Baawarta, Damour and Naameh.
Civil Defense Director General Raymond Khattar said in remarks to LBCI TV station: “For tens of years Lebanon has not witnessed anything similar.” He did not rule out the possibility of arson.
“Around 200 civil defense fire fighting vehicles have deployed in a bid to extinguish more than 104 fires blazing in different Lebanese areas in the last 24 hours,” he noted, saying five members suffered minor injuries. Media reports meanwhile announced the death of a man who had taken part in the firefighting efforts in Chouf. An unusual heatwave and strong winds helped intensify the fires in pine forests around several mountainous regions throwing people out of their homes in the middle of the night. The National News Agency said another massive fire broke out at dawn in the Metn area of Kornet Hamra-Mazraat Yachouaa-Zikrit. Civil Defense firefighters and army helicopters embarked on dousing the fire, as people were told to evacuate. Later on Tuesday, more blazes were reported in several areas of northern and southern Lebanon. The heatwave is expected to subside on Wednesday.

Chouf and Aley Wildfires Subside with Rain as New Blazes Erupt in Metn, Keserwan
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 15/2019
Wildfires that spread across vast areas of Lebanon started to subside Tuesday evening with the fall of rain, amid strenuous efforts by the Civil Defense and firefighters and volunteers from across the country. By 7:00 pm, blazes were still raging in Chouf's al-Dibbiyeh and Dmit and Aley's Kfarmatta as rain contributed to containing the flames in ِAley's Baawarta and south Lebanon. A major fire that had been raging since Monday night in the Chouf area of Mechref was put out earlier in the day with the help of UNIFIL forces. UNIFIL peacekeepers, vehicles and firefighting vehicles later moved to Mazraat al-Dahr and al-Dibbiyeh to contribute to firefighting efforts there. New fires were meanwhile reported in the evening in the northern Metn area of Mazraat Yachouh and the Keserwan area of Ghazir. The wildfires forced some residents to flee their homes in the middle of the night on Monday, while others were stuck inside as the flames reached villages south of Beirut, especially in the Chouf and Aley regions. A heat wave in the region coupled with strong winds intensified the fires that began a day earlier in mostly pine forests around the country and three provinces in neighboring Syria. A man died of a heart attack after taking part in the firefighting efforts in Chouf as several injuries were reported. Fire crews were overwhelmed by the flames in the Mount Lebanon region early Tuesday, forcing the Interior Ministry to send riot police with engines equipped with water cannons to help. Two small aircraft were sent from the nearby Mediterranean island of Cyprus to help put out the flames. "Your planes are now fighting fires in Lebanon as we speak here," Defense Minister Elias Bou Saab said during a visit to Cyprus. Prime Minister Saad Hariri said if the fires turn out to be intentional those behind it "will pay a price." Hariri added that an investigation will be opened to know what caused the fires.  In Damour, a coastal village south of Beirut, more than a dozen charred cars were seen on the side of a road. Most of the homes nearby escaped the damage. The state has been widely criticized by residents because Lebanon bought three aircraft several years ago to be used in extinguishing fires but they have been parked at Beirut's airport with no money to maintain them. As the fires raged overnight, al-Jadeed TV correspondent Halima Tabiaa burst into tears while live on TV, saying she could hear people scream for help inside their homes but no one could reach them. The footage has since gone viral on social media and international and Arab media outlets. Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan said Greece would send two aircraft in response to a request from Lebanon, adding that Jordan has also expressed readiness to send assistance to Beirut. Authorities meanwhile announced that foreign aircraft and army helicopters are not equipped to take part in firefighting operations at night. The National News Agency said four advanced aircraft from Greece and Jordan were expected to arrive later on Tuesday. In neighboring Syria, fires spread in the coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus, as well as the central province of Homs, but authorities there brought all the fires under control.

Strong Lebanon Bloc: We Want to Turn Tables on Corruption, Financial Situation
Naharnet/October 15/2019
The Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc on Tuesday noted that it does not want to “turn the tables” on political rivals in the country but rather on corruption and the financial and economic situation.
“When we say that we want to turn the tables we don't mean that we will turn them against anyone but rather on the financial and economic situations,” bloc secretary MP Ibrahim Kanaan said after a weekly meeting, clarifying recent remarks by the head of the bloc – FPM chief MP Jebran Bassil.
Defending Bassil’s remarks on Syria at the Arab League, Kanaan said: “What we witnessed on the Syrian-Turkish border was an attack on Syrian sovereignty, and even Syria’s fiercest enemies condemned what happened, so why should there be an inferiority complex if we defend Lebanon’s interests and take a stance that serves our interest?” As for Bassil’s remarks on visiting Syria, Kanaan said “the Syrian refugee presence in Lebanon has created financial, economic, social and security burdens and the previous initiatives have not led to a result.”
“Talking to Syria for the sake of the national interest and Lebanese sovereignty and for the sake of achieving stability should not create an inferiority complex, seeing as we are capable of dealing with all countries and remaining Lebanese,” the MP added.

Nasrallah, Franjieh Stress Need for 'Direct, Official Dialogue' with Syria
Naharnet/October 15/2019
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has met with Marada Movement leader ex-MP Suleiman Franjieh, Hizbullah announced on Tuesday, days after the party’s leader met with Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil. “The meeting witnessed a thorough and comprehensive discussion of the various regional developments, especially the latest developments in the Iraqi and Syrian arenas,” a Hizbullah statement said. “As the two parties reiterate their known stance on the need to restore normalcy in the Lebanese-Syrian relations, they renew their emphasis on the need for direct and official dialogue with the Syrian government, especially in two key fields,” the statement added. The two important domains, the statement said, are “benefitting from the huge chance created by the reopening of the al-Boukamal border crossing to boost Lebanese exports to Iraq via Syria, and working together with the Syrian government on the issue of returning Syrian refugees to their country” in order to “alleviate the vast economic and social burdens on Lebanon.”Nasrallah and Franjieh also tackled the economic situations in Lebanon in a “detailed manner” and called for “exerting efforts to increase revenues and slash expenses, while taking into consideration the legitimate demands of low-income citizens.”The two men also rejected any tax hike and called on the government to “put great emphasis on the revenues that the seaside properties can generate and be strict in fighting corruption and the waste of public funds.”
They also called for “preserving financial and monetary stability,” describing it as “one of the pillars of security and political stability in the country.”

Lebanon, Cyprus to Work on Curbing Migrant Arrivals by Boat
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 15/2019
Defense Minister Elias Bou Saab said Tuesday that Lebanon and Cyprus have agreed to work together on curbing boat loads of migrants from reaching the east Mediterranean island nation. Bou Saab said after talks with his Cypriot counterpart that Lebanon would pass on information to Cypriot authorities to better coordinate in heading off such arrivals. Bou Saab said Lebanon understands Cypriot concerns over such arrivals and that the Lebanese navy had stopped migrants trying to reach Cyprus "many times." Saab added that the both countries are looking to better coordinate their naval forces.Cyprus officials have said that the EU-member country leads the 28 member-bloc in the number of asylum applications relative to its population.

Hariri Chairs Emergency Meeting about Massive Fires
Naharnet/October 15/2019
Prime Ministers Saad Hariri on Tuesday chaired part of the meeting of the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority that was held at the Grand Serail to follow up on the ongoing operations to extinguish the massive wildfires that engulfed several Lebanese areas. Present at the meeting were Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan, the Head of the Authority Zahi Shaheen, the Secretary General of the Higher Defense Council Major-General Mahmoud al-Asmar, Mount Lebanon Governor Mohammed Mekkawi, and representatives of various ministries, departments and security services. During the meeting, Hariri said: “Unfortunately, we are witnessing frequent fires, this happens all over the world and we are exerting all possible efforts with the operations room and all the relevant bodies, including the army, security forces, civil defense, governors, municipalities, civil defense and the Red Cross to extinguish them as soon as possible.”“The Minister of Interior and I contacted a number of countries to send additional helicopters and aircrafts to extinguish the fires that have broken out in many Lebanese regions and to combat them and limit their spread. We are exerting great efforts and I thank all those here for everything they are doing. The High Relief Committee will identify the damages in homes and properties. We will work around the clock and do our duty as a state to complete the firefighting process,” Hariri added. “The most important thing for me is that there are no losses of lives and certainly we will investigate what happened to know how it started. I do not want to accuse anyone, but a clear investigation should be conducted to see if what happened is deliberate. If it is, those who did that should pay the price, and if it is not, it could be due to the climate change that the world is witnessing and that is causing disasters. The most important thing is that there are no human damages. The physical damages can be compensated,” the premier went on to say.

Syrian Ambassador Says Bassil’s Remarks 'Uncalculated’
Naharnet/October 15/2019
Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdul Karim Ali said the Free Patriotic Movement leader Jebran Bassil should have used a “more calculated” rhetoric when speaking about displaced Syrians taking their feelings into consideration, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Tuesday. In remarks he made to the daily, Ali commented on Bassil’s remarks when addressing Lebanon’s relations with Damascus. “Minister Bassil said he wants to visit Syria to secure the return of the displaced, just like the Syrian army was returned. The rule was to take into account the feelings of the Syrians and the distinctive ties that bring the two peoples together,” said Ali. He said "uncalculated" speech causes “unaccounted rifts and gaps” in relations. At an FPM rally on Sunday, Bassil said he “will visit Syria so that the Syrian refugees can return to Syria, the same way its army returned.”Ali however hailed the stances of FPM founder and President Michel Aoun: “Syria highly appreciates positions drawn by President Michel Aoun who bet on the victory of Syria since the beginning of the crisis. “As for Minister Bassil, he is welcome to visit Damascus. But may I ask why has not the visit come anytime sooner,” he said. Adding that “if the Foreign Minister or any other Lebanese official visits Syria, it serves Lebanon and Syria. Perhaps it serves Lebanon more than it serves Syria,” he said.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published October 15-16/2019
US Slaps Sanctions on Turkey over Syria Operation
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 October, 2019
The United States slapped sanctions on Turkey Monday as it demanded an end to the deadly incursion against Syrian Kurdish fighters, accusing its NATO partner of putting civilians at risk and allowing the release of ISIS extremists. President Donald Trump, who gave what critics say was a de facto green light for Turkey’s assault by ordering US forces away from the conflict area, requested the ceasefire in a call with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “The United States of America simply is not going to tolerate Turkey’s invasion in Syria any further. We are calling on Turkey to stand down, end the violence and come to the negotiating table,” Vice President Mike Pence told reporters.
He said he would travel shortly to Turkey.
Trump announced plans to reimpose steel tariffs on Turkey and immediately halt negotiations on a $100 billion trade deal. The actions came hours after Syrian regime troops returned for the first time in years to northeastern parts of the country, invited by Kurdish fighters desperate for protection as the United States pulls out. "I am fully prepared to swiftly destroy Turkey's economy if Turkish leaders continue down this dangerous and destructive path," Trump, who until recently had touted his friendship with Erdogan, said in a statement. The Treasury Department said it was imposing sanctions on Turkey's defense, interior and energy ministers, freezing their US assets and making US transactions with them a crime. But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi criticized the sanctions on Twitter, writing they "fall very short of reversing the humanitarian disaster brought about by (Trump's) own erratic decision-making." Signaling an escalating rift in relations, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said he would head next week to Brussels to ask NATO allies to punish Turkey over the incursion. NATO has long been seen as keeping Turkey in the Western orbit, but Erdogan angered the United States earlier this year by buying the major S-400 missile defense system from Russia. Turkey aims to neutralize the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), the main element of Washington’s Kurdish-led ally, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which has been a key US ally in defeating ISIS in Syria. Ankara regards the YPG as a terrorist group aligned with Kurdish insurgents in Turkey.
Turkey wants to create a roughly 30-kilometer (20-mile) buffer zone along its border to keep Kurdish forces at bay and also to send back some of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees on its soil. The chaos in areas targeted in the six-day-old Turkish assault has already led to the escape of around 800 foreign women and children linked to ISIS from a Kurdish-run camp, according to Kurdish authorities. The Kurds had repeatedly warned of that exact scenario when Western countries refused to repatriate their ISIS-linked nationals and when Trump made it clear he wanted to end the US military presence.
Trump mused that the Kurds may be releasing prisoners to keep the United States engaged and staunchly defended withdrawing troops. "Anyone who wants to assist Syria in protecting the Kurds is good with me, whether it is Russia, China, or Napoleon Bonaparte. I hope they all do great, we are 7,000 miles away!" Trump wrote on Twitter. The United States said it is withdrawing all 1,000 troops from northeastern Syria, keeping in the country only roughly 150 troops in the southern base of Al Tanf near the borders with Jordan and Iraq. Wasting no time to fill the void, Russia -- the top broker in Syria -- clinched a deal between the Kurds and Damascus. The two sides had frosty ties since the minority group threw its lot in with Washington and unilaterally declared self-rule as the regime fought opposition factions elsewhere. From early Monday, Syrian regime forces were moving within several kilometers (miles) of the border, AFP correspondents reported. Residents around the town of Tal Tamer welcomed them with cheers and Syrian state television showed some waving national flags. Erdogan had said he expected Kurdish forces to withdraw from Manbij, some 30 kilometers from the border, with the arrival of the regime.  "When Manbij is evacuated, we will not go in there as Turkey. Our Arab brothers, who are the real owners, the tribes... will return there," he said.According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor, the Turkish attack has already left 133 fighters from the SDF and 69 civilians dead. The United Nations says 160,000 people have been displaced. On the Turkish side, four soldiers and 18 civilians have been killed in six days, either in fighting or from Kurdish cross-border fire, according to Turkish sources.
The Observatory has put the number of pro-Turkish Syrian forces killed at 108.

EU Condemns Turkey over Syria, but No Formal Arms Ban
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 October, 2019
The EU on Monday condemned Turkey's assault on Kurdish forces in northern Syria but stopped short of imposing the formal arms embargo some countries have urged. Several European states including Germany and France have already halted arms exports to Turkey and there were calls for an official EU-wide ban. But senior diplomats told AFP that Turkey's membership of NATO made such an embargo extremely difficult. Instead, EU member states agreed to the "strict application" of their existing common policy on arms exports, which includes a provision that they should not be approved where they may "contribute to regional instability".EU diplomatic chief Federica Mogherini said the commitment, agreed by all 28 foreign ministers at talks in Luxembourg, would have the "same effect" as an arms embargo but was quicker and easier to implement.
But after repeated EU calls for Ankara to halt its operation went ignored, she was downbeat about the chances that the latest move would convince Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to change course. "I'm glad that on this occasion the European Union and member states were not only able to speak with one voice but also to act in unison and we take a further step. Will that be enough? We'll see," she told reporters. Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn was even more pessimistic, saying Erdogan was not counting on Europe to supply his forces. Turkey quickly hit back Monday -- the sixth day of the assault -- accusing Brussels of protecting "terror elements"."It is unacceptable for the EU to display an approach that protects terror elements," Ankara's foreign ministry said in a statement.
"We totally reject and condemn the decisions and calls made to our country," it added. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said EU countries had agreed "that they will no longer authorize arms exports to Turkey". But when asked whether this would apply to existing contracts to supply Turkey or only to new business, he said "every country will have to clarify this for itself". Spanish Foreign Minister Josep Borrell, who will soon replace Mogherini at the EU, said Monday's decision would only apply to new contracts, noting arms sales were a matter for member states. One high-level European diplomat said that because Turkey is a NATO member, the EU was not in a position to impose an official embargo.
Diplomatic haggling
Monday's statement said the EU "condemns Turkey's military action, which seriously undermines the stability and the security of the whole region". But, in a sign of the divisions that regularly bedevil EU attempts to impose itself on the geopolitical stage, even this took three and a half hours of closed-door haggling among the ministers. Diplomats told AFP that Britain in particular refused to agree to the word "condemn" until a paragraph was added acknowledging Turkey's role as a "key partner".For some, the EU's inability to influence Turkey -- a neighbor still at least theoretically on the path to membership -- over the offensive highlighted the bloc's fundamental weakness as a geopolitical player. "What happened is that we are happy that we managed to agree to condemn something. That's the state of EU foreign policy," one EU diplomat lamented.
Mogherini warned that, as well as sparking a humanitarian crisis, the Turkish advance risks creating space for the ISIS group to "resurrect" itself following the defeat in Syria. France has called for a meeting of the US-led coalition to defeat ISIS -- of which Turkey is a member -- and Mogherini said the EU was echoing this appeal "in a very formal way" with Washington. The US has ordered the withdrawal of almost its entire ground force in Syria, leaving the Kurds feeling abandoned by their ally in the fight against ISIS. Turkey's assault, which has seen air strikes, shelling and a ground incursion, has killed scores of civilians and fighters since its launch on Wednesday. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg held talks Friday with Erdogan and his foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, sharing his "very serious concerns" about the offensive. Cavusoglu said Spain had told Ankara it would withdraw its Patriot missile batteries from Turkey -- originally deployed to help defend it against ISIS -- when the current mission ends in December.

Syria Kurds Defend Key Town as Turkey Ignores U.S.
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 15/2019
Kurdish fighters put up fierce resistance Tuesday to Turkish forces battling to seize a key town in northeastern Syria, as the violence forced international aid organisations to halt their activities. The United States slapped sanctions on its NATO ally in a bid to stop an assault that its own troop withdrawal triggered, but Ankara showed no sign of relenting. Syria's regime dispatched more troops to the northeast to contain Ankara's advance -- their most significant deployment in the Kurdish-controlled region since they started withdrawing from the area in 2012.
It follows a deal clinched Sunday between Damascus and the Kurds that saw government troops raise the Syrian flag in the flashpoint northern city of Manbij on Tuesday, after US forces pulled out. Regime troops had entered the city near the border on Monday night, as pro-Turkey fighters massed to the west ahead of a planned assault. Kurdish combatants from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are battling Turkish forces and their Syrian proxies -- mostly former rebels paid and equipped by Ankara -- in various parts of the northeast. East of Manbij, the Kurds are mounting a desperate defense in the border town of Ras al-Ain, using a dense network of tunnels, berms and trenches. They launched "a large counterattack against Turkish forces and their Syrian proxies near Ras al-Ain," the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. An AFP correspondent in the area said clashes around the town continued on Tuesday, despite repeated claims by Ankara in recent days that it had captured the area.
Manbij
Since launching their assault on October 9, Turkish-backed forces have secured more than 100 kilometers (60 miles) of border, but Ras al-Ain, which the Kurds call Siri Kani, has held out. President Donald Trump announced a pullback of US forces from the border last week, a move which was widely interpreted as green-lighting a long-planned Turkish invasion. Politically embattled at home, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to create a 30 kilometer (20 mile) deep buffer zone on the Syrian side of the long border. He wants to keep the SDF at bay -- Ankara considers them a terrorist group because of their links with the main Kurdish insurgency in Turkey -- and create a resettlement area for some of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees on Turkish soil. The offensive has left dozens of civilians dead, mostly on the Kurdish side, and displaced at least 160,000 people.
Aid groups, which have warned of a new humanitarian disaster in Syria's eight-year-old war, have been forced to pull out of the conflict zone, Kurdish authorities said. Trump, who is campaigning for re-election but faces impeachment, is keen to deliver on a promise of pulling US troops out of the Syria quagmire.
More than 1,000 troops are now being withdrawn from northern Syria and the United States will keep only a residual contingent of around 150 in the south at the Al-Tanf base near the borders with Jordan and Iraq.
On Tuesday, the Russian defense ministry said U.S. troops have left bases near Manbij and the Syrian army "has full control" over the former Islamic State group stronghold. The US-led coalition confirmed the withdrawal, saying: "We are out of Manbij."US troops had been based in the city since they helped Kurdish fighters seize it from IS in 2016. Russian military police continue to patrol a zone separating regime troops and Turkish forces in cooperation with Ankara, Moscow said.
Transfers to Iraq?
In a bid to force Turkey's hand, Washington slapped sanctions on its defense, interior and energy ministers, freezing their U.S. assets and making U.S. transactions with them a crime. "I am fully prepared to swiftly destroy Turkey's economy if Turkish leaders continue down this dangerous and destructive path," said Trump, who until recently had touted his friendship with Erdogan. Abandoned by the US, their chief ally in years of battles against IS that cost the lives of 11,000 of their fighters, the Kurds turned to Damascus. European governments in particular are worried that the chaos in the area could lead to mass breakouts by thousands of IS fighters detained by Kurdish forces.They have warned this would lead to a resurgence of the jihadist organisation and increase the risk that some of them might return to Europe to plan and conduct terror attacks. The SDF have warned that their fighters were mobilized to defend against the Turkish advance and not available to fully guard IS prisoners. That has already resulted in the escape of hundreds of foreign fighters' relatives, although Trump suggested the SDF may have deliberately let them go to gain leverage. Human Rights Watch warned European countries against attempts to have their detained nationals transferred en masse to Iraq for prosecution. The watchdog warned it would be illegal for these countries to send nationals to stand trial in a country where they risk execution and where due process is consistently violated. A European diplomatic source said France was discussing a transfer with Iraqi officials on Tuesday.

Turkish, Kurdish Forces Battle for Syria's Ras al-Ayn
Tuesday, 15 October, 2019 - 11:00
In this photo taken from the Turkish side of the border between Turkey and Syria, in Ceylanpinar, Sanliurfa province, southeastern Turkey, smoke and dust billow from targets in Ras al-Ayn, Syria, caused by bombardment by Turkish forces, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2019. (AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis)
London- Asharq Al-Awsat
Turkey defied growing condemnation from its NATO allies to press ahead with its invasion of northern Syria on Tuesday, shelling suspected Kurdish positions near the border amid reports that Syrian Kurds had retaken a key town.
Targeting Turkey's economy, US President Donald Trump on Monday announced sanctions aimed at restraining the Turks' assault against Kurdish fighters and civilians in Syria - an assault Turkey began after Trump announced he was moving US troops out of the way.
The United States also called on Turkey to stop the offensive and declare a cease-fire, while European Union countries moved to broaden an arms sale embargo against their easternmost ally. Now in its seventh day, Turkey's offensive has sowed fear and chaos in an already war-weary region - and upended alliances amid Syria's eight-year conflict. The Associated Press reported heavy bombardment of targets in the countryside of Ras al-Ayn early on Tuesday, days after Turkey announced that it had captured the border town. Turkish jets also carried out at least one airstrike.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitoring group, reported that Syrian Kurdish fighters had retaken the town. Turkish media reports said Turkey's military was responding to attempts by the Kurdish fighters to infiltrate Ras al-Ayn.
The renewed battle for the border town follows the deployment of Syria's army near the Turkish border, after Syrian Kurdish forces - saying they had been abandoned by their US ally - reached a deal with President Bashar Assad's government to help them fend off Turkey's invasion.
Assad's return to the region his troops abandoned in 2012 at the height of the Syrian civil war is a turning point in the conflict, giving yet another major boost to his government and its Russian backers and is like to endanger, if not altogether crush, the brief experiment in self-rule set up by Syria's Kurds since the conflict began. Washington said Trump was sending Vice President Mike Pence and national security adviser Robert O'Brien to Ankara as soon as possible in an attempt to begin negotiations over a stop to the fighting. Pence said Trump spoke directly to Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who promised not to attack the border town of Kobani, which in 2015 witnessed the ISIS group's first defeat in a battle by US-backed Kurdish fighters.A Turkish military official, meanwhile denied reports that Turkey had begun an assault on the Kurdish-held town of Manbij, without giving further detail. The Manbij region is home to US outposts that were set up in 2017 to patrol the tense frontiers between Turkish-controlled areas and the Kurdish-held side of northern Syria. A US official said troops are still in the town, preparing to leave.
On Monday Syrian fighters backed by Turkey had said they had started an offensive to capture Manbij, which is on the western flank of the Euphrates River, broadening their campaign east of the river. Erdogan for his part defended Turkey's offensive in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, calling on the international community to support Turkey's effort to create what it calls a resettlement "safe zone" for refugees in northeast Syria, or "begin admitting refugees.""Turkey reached its limit," Erdogan wrote in reference to 3.6 million Syrian refugees in his country. He said Turkey's warnings that it would not be able to stop refugee floods into the West without international support "fell on deaf ears."

Turkish Families Flee Kurdish Mortars
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 October, 2019
The day before Turkey began its Syria offensive had been like any other day for Ayse, making bread at home while the children played outside in the sweltering heat. But within hours of Ankara launching the operation, Aysa found herself, like many terrified families in the Turkish border town of Ceylanpinar, cowering under a table as mortar shells rained down and Ankara's jets thundered overhead. When Turkey launched its military action against Kurdish fighters in Syria on Wednesday, few had expected such a fierce response, with hundreds of mortars dropping on Turkish border towns.
"You're scared even if you don't want to be. We didn't think the shelling would be this bad," Ayse told AFP. She fled her home after two days for one of seven school boarding houses in the town of Viransehir, around 50 kilometers (30 miles) away, where the government provided shelter and food to around 1,000 people, mostly women and children. "I said repeatedly I wouldn't leave but I could see my children's psychology was badly affected because of the sounds of shelling," the mother-of-six said. Turkish howitzers and warplanes have pounded targets just over the border in Ras al-Ain, while the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) have returned fire with rockets and mortars into Ceylanpinar, where around 70,000 people live. Two 11-year-olds were killed on Thursday after mortar shells and rockets hit the town, according to officials. "We left quickly in the night, without anything for ourselves, our children," said Gulistan, who has eight children, the youngest only six months. In a visit arranged with local authorities, AFP spoke to several women at one boarding house, though some did not wish to give their real names. One said a bomb landed at her home but had not exploded. "The police came to destroy the bomb and said if we had not called them within an hour, it could have exploded and caused much damage," she said.
Looting
With fighting still raging across the border and mortars still incoming on Monday, more families have fled to Viransehir.The women claimed there had been multiple incidents of looting in the town, and that their relatives had stayed behind to protect their homes.  "People can't leave," said one woman. Ayse broke down into tears, saying her elderly mother, husband and 19-year-old son had remained in Ceylanpinar. Nonetheless, the women still support the Turkish operation and praised the help they had received in the boarding houses. "May God protect our state and our soldiers," said Ayse. Many families have also sought refuge with relatives in other towns. "I want to go back home but my husband told me I shouldn't, saying there were still bullets flying," said Ayse. "Who knows how long we will stay? Maybe we will stay for one more week, maybe more."

Erdogan: Syria Offensive to Continue until 'Objectives Achieved'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 15/2019
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Tuesday that Turkey's operation against Kurdish militants in northern Syria would not stop until "our objectives have been achieved". Turkey is in the seventh day of its assault against the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which it sees as a "terrorist" off-shoot of Kurdish insurgents in its own territory. "God willing, we will quickly secure the region stretching from Manbij to our border with Iraq and ensure that, in the first stage, one million, and then two million Syrian refugees return to their homes of their own free will," Erdogan said in a televised speech in Baku, where he was attending a regional conference. He said 1,000 square-kilometres of Syrian territory had so far been "liberated from the separatist terrorist organisation".Turkey plans to establish a safe zone stretching across northern Syria, to which it can repatriate many of the 3.6 million refugees that it is hosting from the Syrian conflict.

Foreigners Exit Northeastern Syria Fearing Regime Reach
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 October, 2019
It was a sign of the sudden transformation sweeping Kurdish-run northeast Syria: foreign aid workers and journalists packed this border crossing on Monday, rushing to get out to Iraq. The exodus was not propelled by the Turkish offensive launched last week. Instead, it was the return of Syria's central government to the region, where Kurdish administrators have had virtual self-rule for years, reported The Associated Press. The rush to leave reflected the sudden and dramatic nosedive of the aspirations of Syria's Kurdish minority for autonomy. The Kurdish-led administration itself invited Syrian regime troops to the area to defend against the Turkish assault after the US abandoned them and began pulling its soldiers out.
Foreigners who had entered "Rojava" -as the Kurds call their region- now woke up to uncertainty over who would be in charge. If back with Damascus in control, they would effectively be in the country illegally. The departing foreigners were the main activity at the Semelka crossing Monday. The truck lane of the usually bustling commercial gateway was empty - only a single pick-up with sheep in the back stood in the parking lot. Dozens of Syrians waited to cross into Iraq. Though few organizations made official announcements, it appeared almost all foreigners working for aid groups were leaving. Dozens of foreign journalists covering the offensive also pulled out, fearing getting caught in the regime’s security web.The Kurds set up their administration in the northeast after the regime pulled out its troops seven years ago to fight opposition factions elsewhere at the height of the war. When ISIS extremists swarmed their areas, the Kurds allied with the United States to fight them.
With oil resources recaptured from ISIS, water resources and millions of dollars in foreign aid, the Kurdish-led administration set up functioning institutions and has pushed ahead with reconstruction and development after the devastation of the war on ISIS. Aid workers, construction firms and contractors were drawn to the area. Even exiled Kurds returned.
But Rojava was not never recognized by Damascus or the international community. Its administration of Semelka, the territory's only crossing to the outside world, was informal. "This is our nightmare scenario," said Made Ferguson, Mercy Corps' deputy country director for Syria, which had to pull its international staff out of northeastern Syria. "There are tens of thousands of people on the run and we have no way of getting to them. We've had to pull our international staff out of northeast Syria. We just cannot effectively operate with the heavy shelling, roads closing, and the various and constantly changing armed actors in the areas where we are working."The US-based group warned that the humanitarian crisis is set to worsen. Already the fighting has displaced nearly 130,000 Syrians. An international aid worker at the border crossing Monday said nearly all 250 foreign aid workers in northeast Syria, operating with dozens of groups, were leaving. De-miners also pulled out. The worker spoke on condition of anonymity because most organizations were not making their moves public. The Kurdish-led administration tried to stem the flight and ease the worries. It said in a statement that the agreement to bring in Syrian forces was purely military and all administration will operate as usual, including at the border.
But a sense of uncertainty reigned. Already, regime troops were more visible in two main cities, reported the AP. Few Syrians were at the border. Only those with residency elsewhere or permits to visit Iraq can get out. "I'm very afraid, and I think many people will be killed," said 50-year old Sheikha Hami, an elementary school teacher leaving with her two children to stay with her sister in Iraq. Her children feared the airstrikes, but she feared the Kurds' old and new allies. "I think the (Syrian) regime is like America," she said. "I don't believe either. I can't trust either."
Barzan Azem, a 40-year old Kurdish lawyer who holds a Dutch passport, was leaving with his three daughters. He and his wife returned to Qamishli in Rojava five years ago because they thought it was safe. Now, he is taking the girls back to Amsterdam, then he will return to rejoin his wife, a journalist, who decided to stay to cover the developments. There were already signs the Syrian regime was expanding its power in Qamishli, he said, and seeking to take positions of Kurdish security forces. "It is very bad," he said. Expressing his frustration with the abandonment of the Kurds, he said with tears in his eyes: "I cannot find a word ugly enough to describe what the Americans and the Europeans are doing with this war.""I will drop my kids in Amsterdam and come back. Yes, I want to fight.”

Qatar Again Defends Turkey Incursion in Syria
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 October, 2019
Qatar reiterated on Tuesday its support for Turkey’s incursion in Syria against Kurdish forces, saying it was aimed at eliminating an “imminent threat.”"We can't put all the blame on Turkey," Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani said at a Global Security Forum meeting in Doha, adding that Ankara had been forced to respond to an "imminent threat for Turkish security". Turkey wants to create a roughly 30-kilometer (20-mile) buffer zone along its border to keep Kurdish forces at bay and also to send back some of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees on its soil. "In the beginning (Turkey) said 'don't support these groups'," Abdulrahman said, referring to Kurdish elements such as the People's Protection Units (YPG) that helped a US-led coalition combat the ISIS group. "Nobody listened. They have been trying to solve this issue now for more than a year with the United States, to create a safe zone to get the threat away from their border."Ankara says the YPG is a "terrorist offshoot" of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984. "The YPG and (its political arm the) PYD is from a branch of the PKK which is declared a terrorist organization in the US, EU, Turkey -- everywhere," said Abdulrahman. "(Turkey) couldn't reach any solution with the US, they couldn't handle this threat until it became explosive for them.""We don't see Turkey against the Kurds. Turkey is against a group of people within the Kurds," he said. Qatar’s position is in stark contrast with Arab consensus that has condemned the operation as an “invasion” of Syria. The Arab League convened an emergency meeting on Saturday to slam the operation. Qatar had expressed reservations over its final statement.
The United States unveiled sanctions on Monday against Ankara and the France, Germany and Italy announced that they would be suspending arms agreements with it over the incursion.

Egypt’s Ex-President Mubarak Getting Ready for Rare Appearance
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 15 October, 2019
Preparing the ground for a rare appearance by former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, his eldest son, Alaa, said on Monday that his father “would soon speak about some events that took place in the October 1973 war.”
Since he was toppled during the January 25, 2011 revolution, Mubarak has made very few public appearances and media statements. Among them was an interview with Kuwait’s al-Watan newspaper during which he spoke about his memories of the Gulf war. In a Twitter post Monday, Alaa said his father, who ruled Egypt for almost 30 years, would speak for the first time since he was ousted from power. On the occasion of the 46th anniversary of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, he will open up about his memories of the conflict, in which he participated as an Air Force Commander.
Mubarak, 91, and his two sons were sentenced by an Egyptian court for embezzling millions of dollars of state funds over the course of a decade.
The ruling deprives the former president from being decorated with medals or from having a state military funeral. Alaa said the interview will air on Tuesday at 8:30pm Cairo time, providing a YouTube link where it can be accessed.
The 1973 Arab–Israeli War, also known as the Yom Kippur War, was a conflict fought from October 6 to 25, 1973, by a coalition of Arab states, led by Egypt and Syria, against Israel. Egyptian television anchor Ahmad Sayyed had announced in March that he would release an interview with Mubarak on the “Masr Hayat” channel. However, he later apologized from broadcasting it, citing “technical conditions beyond his control."

Brexit Deal 'Possible this Week', Says EU's Barnier
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 15/2019
EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said Tuesday that a deal with London could be reached this week, but warned that more tough talks were still needed."Even if the agreement will be difficult -- more and more difficult to be frank -- it's still possible this week," Barnier said as he arrived to update EU countries on ongoing talks with the British side.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published October 15-16/2019
If Only the Sultan Had Learned from the Tsar
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/2019
Russia has intervened militarily in Syria and here is Turkey doing the same. But how wide is the difference between the two interventions and the two approaches!
The first interference was based on an accurate reading of what is constant and what is evolving. It was based on interconnected steps that are made at the right moment and on a precise understanding of the balance of power.
The second was built on a hasty decision and erroneous estimates of climates and equations, and soon appeared to lack any legal or international umbrella.
Turkish authorities chose a poetic name for the invasion of northeastern Syria. Anyone who hears the expression, “spring of peace”, imagines that the intervention force belongs to relief agencies or the International Committee of the Red Cross, and that it provides tents to the homeless and food to the poor.
The first reactions to the operation showed that we are facing a dangerous new chapter in the open war in Syria. Ending “Operation Spring of Peace” will be much more difficult than launching it.
There is not enough space here to list the twists of the Turkish policy in the Syrian crisis. But we mention the most relevant ones, namely the success of the Russian plan to recruit the Turkish player, whose Atlantic spirit shriveled, to give way to the Astana process, buy Russian missiles and threaten to drown Europe with Syrian refugees.
When the Russian military intervention practically turned the page on the demands to topple President Bashar al-Assad, Erdogan’s Syrian dream was limited to the overthrow of the Kurdish entity, which appeared to be relying on a legitimacy derived from fighting ISIS, in addition to military, intelligence and political relations with the United States and the countries of the international coalition.
Erdogan tried to lure the United States into joining him in the “Safe Zone” project inside the Syrian border. Washington has shown resilience and postponed the decision, but Donald Trump’s administration is not in a position to engage in new conflicts, especially since Trump has already promised to bring back troops from “those silly and endless wars.”
When he lost hope of a permanent US cover for his operation, Erdogan carried out his threat unilaterally.
It is naive to say that the only reason for the Turkish military operation is Erdogan’s desire to escape from the inside, after his popularity waned and his party started to crumble. The issue is bigger and more serious. It is necessary to pay attention to the military and security establishment’s reading of national security requirements in the long term. Moreover, some of Erdogan’s opponents at home share his desire to uproot the “Kurdish belt” that is taking shape inside Syria and along its border with Turkey.
Those who follow Erdogan’s positions discover that he overestimates Turkey’s strength and the others’ dependence on it. This made him commit a serious mistake in reading the international scene. We will not be quick to recall the mistake of Saddam Hussein. The framework is different. But if a politician may commit an exaggeration in an enthusiastic election speech, he may not rely on a miscalculation to launch a military operation on the territory of a neighboring country.
Erdogan probably went too far in assessing Trump’s decision to withdraw some US troops from northeastern Syria. He considered it a US resignation from the region’s fate and an affirmation of the absence of the American policeman. Perhaps he bet that Washington would not take sides with local groups and organizations and risk old relations with an Atlantic country the size of Turkey, especially in light of the current tension with Iran. He might have considered that America needed Turkey more than the latter needed it.
Perhaps he also considered that Russia will not risk to blow up what has been achieved in the process of attracting Turkey. Perhaps he assumed that Europe would remain silent, fearing that the sultan would decide to expose the Old Continent to new waves from the “spring of refugees”.
Arab, European and international reactions showed that the sultan misjudged and misread. The adventure seems costly for the Turkish economy first. In addition, what if the Turkish army falls into a war of attrition inside and around the safe zone?
If the Syrian territory did not ignite under the feet of the Turkish army, Ankara will need to make concessions to Moscow, Tehran, Damascus and other capitals. Then what will happen if the Turkish operation is found to have given ISIS a golden opportunity to emerge again and topple international efforts for a solution that extinguishes the Syrian fire?
Rushed decisions have a high price. Erdogan is likely to return from his adventure with a drained economy and a degree of isolation to his country. The sultan ventures in a troubled region. Only if he stopped at the ingenuity of the Tsar, who is visiting Saudi Arabia Monday. The quest for stability in the troubled region is the big slogan of his visit. Relationships based on realistic reading and opportunities for collaboration despite differences… Enhancing trade exchange, oil cooperation, investment opportunities and political and diplomatic consultation…
Putin’s interview with Al-Arabiya confirmed the features of this Russian diplomacy. His ability to reap the benefits of two decades of building power, opening windows and establishing bridges.
A powerful Russia presents itself as a stabilizing force, having acquired the ability to speak to everyone. The image of a brilliant firefighter who protects his interests by pouring realism water on the embers of crises.
Realistic reading is a prerequisite for stable and beneficial international relations. Putin recognizes the importance of Saudi Arabia, Islam and the world. He recognizes their economic importance and the magnitude of the massive transformation they are currently undergoing.
At the same time, he is aware of the dimensions of Saudi Arabia's strategic relationship with the United States, which is currently sending to the Kingdom defense reinforcements to curb Iranian adventures. Conformity is not a condition for good relations.
Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, knows that Russia is a major international player and speaks from the heart of the Middle East. The Kingdom knows that Russia’s presence in Syria gives its greater ability to influence the future of the country and the region… That opportunities for cooperation are wide, and that congruence is not a condition for deepening this cooperation.
Those were the starting points of the visits conducted to Moscow by King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Building relationships on facts and numbers and credibility in committing to what is agreed upon.
Putin’s approach is very far from that of Erdogan. The Russian president overturned the course of events in Syria with a military intervention that did not drown him in a new Afghanistan, but made him a greater need for the countries of the region.
Erdogan’s operation in Syria threatens to lead his country to exhaustion and isolation. If only the sultan had learned from the tsar!

A Refugee Invasion of Europe? Erdogan Is Bluffing
Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/2019
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to “open the gates” to Europe for Syrian refugees temporarily housed in Turkey unless the European Union stops its harsh criticism of his military operation against the Kurds of northern Syria. The threat is not new, though, and Erdogan is no more likely than before to make good on it. Instead, he’ll likely push the refugees in the opposite direction.
In March 2016, Turkey signed a readmission agreement with the EU allowing the Europeans to send any undocumented immigrants arriving from Turkey back to that country. In return, the EU offered 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) in aid immediately, and another 3 billion euros by the end of 2018. The deal was a key element in the chaotic but ultimately effective European effort to reduce the influx of asylum seekers from war-torn Syria and other Middle Eastern and African countries.
In the years since the deal was signed, the EU only returned some 2% of asylum seekers arriving on the Greek islands from Turkey. To avoid being sent back, the refugees began applying for asylum on the islands without waiting to reach their intended destinations such as Germany. Greece has been chronically unable to handle the application backlog, and the islands are now home to miserable, overflowing refugee camps holding more than 30,000 people.
The deal’s value, however, wasn’t so much in the actual readmissions but in Turkey’s willingness to house an enormous number of refugees, providing them with decent enough conditions that they don’t set sail for Greece. There are almost 3.7 million Syrian refugees in Turkey now. Erdogan claims Turkey has spent $40 billion to support them, far more than the $7 billion in aid he reckons the country has received from the rest of the world.
Erdogan started threatening to open the gates for the refugees months after the readmission deal was signed. Even in 2016, he felt the EU aid, used for things such as refugee children’s schooling, wasn’t coming fast enough. More recently, the threats have become more frequent as the Syrians – provided only temporary protection rather than a full refugee status – have grown increasingly unpopular in economically pressed Turkey. In July, Turkey even announced a suspension of the readmission deal in response to (rather weak) EU sanctions for Turkey’s gas drilling in disputed waters near Cyprus. It doesn’t really matter what the current pretext for opening the gates is; Erdogan must get rid of at least some Syrians.
Erdogan’s most recent plan is to move up to 2 million of the refugees to a specially created “safe zone” along the Turkish border in Syria. That requires pushing the Kurds of the Syrian Democratic Forces 30 kilometers (18 miles) away from the border. The two goals of the current Turkish military push, condemned by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and by European governments, are to increase border security by pushing back the hostile Kurds and to get the Syrians off Turkish land.
The plan, of course, is unpopular with human rights defenders and with European governments: One doesn’t resolve one humanitarian disaster by creating another. But harsh action against a North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally is tough, and at this point, European condemnation doesn’t amount to more than noise. So, probably, do Erdogan’s threats, though. He can bus refugees to the Syrian border, as he’s already done with those who failed to register with the government, and he can stick them in areas captured by Turkish troops in Syria. But he cannot put them on ships and send them to Greece. Such open action on the part of his government would likely put an end, at least temporarily, to Turkey’s customs union with the EU, exacerbating its economic problems – and Europe likely would push back the ships, anyway.
“Opening the gates” mainly means not preventing refugees from leaving for Europe voluntarily or human traffickers from setting up shop on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast. However, Turkey hasn’t been doing much to stop migrant crossings lately: More monthly arrivals have been registered on the Aegean Sea islands since summer than at any time in the last two years.
It’s unlikely that many more people want to embark on the journey. By now, the conditions in the camps on the Aegean islands are well known to the Syrians living in Turkey. Given the snail’s pace at which Greece processes applications, the future is bleak for those who cross the sea. And Europe can live with the current increase in arrivals even if that means relieving Greece’s burden by resettling a few thousand more people.
Erdogan isn’t really an effective gatekeeper when it comes to Europe’s refugee influx. In fact, his military operation in Syria may send a flood of Kurdish asylum seekers to Europe by other routes. The readmission agreement has served its purpose, and the EU shouldn’t cling to it. Perhaps giving it up would give Erdogan pause: He’d be forced to pivot from trying to blackmail Europe to thinking about how to salvage his country’s most important economic relationship.

As fate of ISIS prisoners in Syria grows more unpredictable, RCMP has still not charged any of the Canadians
ستيورد بيل: مع تزايد غموض مصير سجناء داعش في سوريا الشرطة الكندية لم توجه أي تهمة للكنديين من المنتمين للتنظيم الإرهابي
Stewart.bell/globalnews/October 15/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79500/%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%8a%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af-%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%85%d8%b9-%d8%aa%d8%b2%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%ba%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b6-%d9%85%d8%b5%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%b3%d8%ac%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b9/
Toronto’s Mohammed Khalifa — a key member of the Islamic State media branch — was captured in January following a gun battle with Kurdish fighters, but nine months in prison haven’t dampened his zeal.
“I do see an obligation to continue fighting,” he told Global News in an interview in northern Syria.
He just might get the chance.
He faces no charges in Canada and a Turkish invasion has brought chaos to the region where he is detained, throwing his fate and that of thousands of other foreign ISIS captives into question.
Whether they will escape to rejoin ISIS, attempt to return home or become prisoners of Turkey or the Syrian regime remains to be seen, but each of those options is problematic.
Adding to the sudden unpredictability surrounding ISIS detainees is that, should any of the Canadians find their way back to Canada, they do not yet face any charges.
Although the federal government has called prosecuting Canadians involved in terrorism “our top priority,” it has yet to bring any ISIS suspects caught in Syria to justice.
The risks of leaving Canadian ISIS members like Khalifa for the Kurdish forces to deal with became more clear last week when Turkey launched its offensive into northern Syria.
The attack led to renewed ISIS operations, escapes by hundreds of ISIS families and an abrupt shift in alliances. Abandoned by the United States, the Kurds turned to Syria’s pro-Russia president, Bashar Al Assad.
Kurdish forces said they would continue to detain the ISIS suspects and either seek to prosecute them at an international tribunal or send them back to their own countries, but circumstances are evolving quickly.
“Things are changing so rapidly that making predictions is probably a waste of time,” said Prof. Amarnath Amarasingam, who recently visited northern Syria.
During the hour-long interview, Khalifa admitted to leaving Canada with the intention of fighting in Syria and narrating ISIS propaganda releases such as the mass execution video Flames of War.
West said several charges were appropriate, including participating in terrorist activity, facilitating terrorist activity and counselling terrorist activity, as well as counselling and taking part in war crimes.
“His voice is very identifiable. And he acknowledges that that is his voice. It wouldn’t be that hard to match the two up,” said West, who teaches at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs.
“So to me, this is pretty strong evidence that he … committed these crimes. And that type of evidence could be used and would be admissible in a Canadian court,” she said.
The RCMP has this information and they have not yet charged him.”
For his part, Khalifa acknowledged he had counselled violence.
“I mean, it’s pretty obvious,” he said.
“As far as I remember, if you did the same sort of thing in America, where you’re translating any jihadi material, you’d be charged with incitement. So I assume it’s the same in Canada,” he said.
In addition to Khalifa, Kurdish forces were holding Mohammad Ali, a self-admitted ISIS sniper from Toronto who openly called for attacks in Canada on social media. Also in their custody were three other men who identified as Canadians, at least 11 women and two dozen children.
Asked why none had been charged, the RCMP said terrorism investigations were “complex and resource-intensive.”
“Often, they require evidence of an individual’s activity in foreign conflict zones, or rely on information provided by partners that we are not authorized to disclose in court,” said RCMP Sgt. Caroline Duval.
Radicalized by al-Qaida lectures
In his account to Global News, Khalifa said he was born in Saudi Arabia and moved to Italy with his family before they settled in downtown Toronto when he was five.
He had no troubles at school, and his relationship with his parents was good, he said. They divorced when he was in elementary school and he lived with his mother but still saw his father.
Religion did not interest him until he left Central Tech High School and began studying at a local mosque, he said.
“I attended some lessons and it just had an impact on me, so I just started taking faith more seriously.”
In about 2008, he began following conservative Islamic online forums, and during the Arab Spring uprisings, he began to follow an al-Qaida cleric who had been killed in a U.S drone strike in Yemen.
“At the time, I was basically listening to lectures by Anwar Al Awlaki and following what was happening in Syria.”
“That’s basically when I made the decision, around the summer,” he said.
He told his mother he was moving to Egypt. He disclosed his true intentions to no one.
“I figured that if they knew that I was going to go and fight in Syria they’d try to stop me.”
From Toronto, he flew to Cairo and Istanbul and continued to the southern Turkish region of Hatay. He took a taxi to the border and gave a smuggler a few hundred U.S. dollars to get him into Syria on a bus.
His plans weren’t thought out in detail. He didn’t know which armed Islamist group he wanted to join until he got to the border and decided on Muhajireen al Ansar because its members spoke English.
He was sent for training but claimed he ended up just waiting at a house and exercising in the backyard. When the Muhajireen merged with ISIS that fall, he joined the Islamic State and was recruited into the media wing in April 2014.
“They saw in him something — his voice, his language ability — and brought him into the media apparatus in a very big way,” Amarasingam said.
“And he stuck with that media apparatus to the very end.”
Initially, Khalifa said, three foreigners ran the ISIS media office in Raqqa: himself, an American and a German. They put out “basically daily news” based on reports from ISIS fighters on the battlefield.
It wasn’t what he had intended but it was what ISIS needed and he saw it as a duty, which he said he performed “for the sake of my faith.” He said he didn’t enjoy it “100 per cent” but decided, “if this is where they need me then fine.”
With his obvious Canadian accent, Khalifa became a matter of speculation upon the release in September 2014 of Flames of War, an hour-long video that showed captured Syrian soldiers digging their own graves and then being executed by gunfire.
That was followed by audio statements in which he claimed the Paris attack for ISIS, referring to the mass murder of 131 civilians as a “blessed onslaught” and threatening coalition countries with more violence.
Khalifa expressed no remorse for his role in creating propaganda promoting terrorist attacks, explaining that the killings raised the issue of “collateral damage,” which he said was “not an issue that’s specific to the West.”
He said ISIS adhered to a set of “rules,” one being that women and children were not targeted. Reminded that ISIS attacks had all targeted random civilians, including women and children, he said men of fighting age were not considered civilians, while women and children were “collateral damage.”
When terrorists attacked in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Que., and Ottawa in October 2014, killing two Canadian Forces members, Khalifa was indifferent, he said.
“It’s not like I still saw myself as a Canadian.”
He married a woman he met in Raqqa through ISIS and they had three children, but he said they had not attended ISIS schools because they were too young. His wife would stay at home with the kids and visit other women in Raqqa.
He encountered few other Canadians in ISIS, he claimed. He said he met Collin and Gregory Gordon, brothers from Calgary, and confirmed they were dead. Likewise, he said Calgary’s Farah Shirdon and Ahmad Waseem of Windsor had also died.
As ISIS began to lose Raqqa to the Kurdish forces, Khalifa retreated with the senior ranks of the terror group, which Amarasingam said was an indication of the importance ISIS leaders attached to their propaganda wing.
“As Raqqa fell, as Mayadin fell and they moved south to Deir Ezzor, the leadership made it clear that the English-language media arm, and the media arm in general, was quite important for the survival of the organization.”
Khalifa said ISIS was adamant that he should continue his work.
“If you’re constantly releasing news about yourself, you’re still out there. If you don’t have any news, nobody knows you exist. So it was seen as a priority for that reason.”
But he was eventually trapped with ISIS close to the Iraq border and captured following a gunfight with Kurdish forces.
The former Toronto tech support worker now shares a prison room with 19 others.
Neither the RCMP nor any other Canadian officials have contacted him, he said. The only foreign agency he has spoken to is the FBI, which he said had interviewed him.
“It was just basically information about how I came, where I was within Islamic State territory, what I did, what my role was, my job, that sort of thing,” he said, speaking on condition he was not videotaped.
His East African wife and their kids were at a camp for ISIS families. He said he didn’t know what came next.
“The information we get is less and less and less, and we’re more and more and more in the dark.”
“And so there is even less reason to stress over it,” Khalifa said. “It’s kind of just like, whatever happens, happens.”
He denied allegations he was the executioner seen in the Flames of War video but would not say who it was except that executions were performed by battalions such as the Anwar Al Awlaki Brigade — which was allegedly led by another Canadian, Abu Bakr Kanadi.
Asked about being brought back to Canada and put on trial, he said that would be “a dead end for me.” Because his wife is not Canadian, she would not be allowed into Canada. And he would be on a no-fly list and unable to leave Canada.
“OK then, how am I supposed to get back to my family, right? So that’s basically one of my main concerns.”
While he said he did not see himself as a threat, he said he wouldn’t blame Canadians for seeing him as one. He said he still considered himself a member of ISIS, and pointed out that he had not surrendered.
But there are “certain things you have to understand,” he said. “There might be something that you believe is acceptable, right, according to your faith or according to whatever you decide to follow. But you yourself might not want to do it.”
“If you ask me about martyrdom operations, yeah, I believe they’re correct and they’re acceptable. Does that mean that I would do it? Me personally, I would shy away from it. I have my reasons.”
Asked if he would counsel others to conduct such attacks, he declined to answer. Reminded he had, in the video and audio propaganda he produced for ISIS, he acknowledged that.
“Right, yeah, I did.”
Stewart.bell@globalnews.ca
© 2019 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
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What’s the Point of the Economics Nobel?
Mervyn King/Bloomberg//October 15/2019
Next week marks the 50th anniversary of the Nobel Prize in Economics, as it has come to be known. It was first awarded in 1969 by the Swedish central bank as an addendum to the other, much older, Nobel prizes (and is correctly known as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel). This upstart status subtracts nothing from the esteem, or cash, accorded to the laureates. The latest winner, or winners, will be announced Monday.
What have we learned from half a century of these awards — and is there any point to them?
Sweden and the rest of Scandinavia certainly see a point. The celebratory banquet — each December, at the Stockholm City Hall — is broadcast on live television across the region. Where else would reality television mean listening to a commentary on the dress (white tie and tails for those identifying as male) and careers of academic superstars, not to mention the menu?
Initially there was controversy over the new prize — a member of the Nobel family said it glorified profits over people. In some ways it remains an awkward fit. “Discoveries” are harder to identify in a subject that contributes most when it’s framing problems rather than stating answers. It hasn’t helped that some economists have become identified with strong political positions. For instance, there was criticism from the left of Milton Friedman’s Nobel, even though he was being recognized for his work on monetary history and macroeconomic theory rather than for his subsequent declarations on the role of the state.
It would be difficult to imagine a parallel in the physical sciences for the 2013 prize. That year, the award went jointly to Eugene Fama, who developed the efficient market hypothesis, which states that market prices reflect all publicly available information, and Robert Shiller, who has worked to refute that very idea. It’s telling that the insights of both men have proved invaluable. It confirms that economics at its best gives us insights not solutions.
Has the prize altered the type of research on which economists engage? Should it try to? The answer to both questions is no. Many if not most fundamental breakthroughs have a large element of luck or serendipity about them. They often spring from ideas that originate in unrelated problems, not a head-on attack. The Nobel Committee is wise not to try to influence future research but to recognize past contributions. Too many national research councils, with far larger budgets, ignore this lesson.
The real value of the prize is simply that once a year public attention is drawn to an important set of ideas. The issues explored by the discipline’s most creative thinkers — Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow, James Meade and Robert Lucas, Arthur Lewis and Amartya Sen, to name just some — gained wider currency as a result.
On several occasions the prize has been shared, and in all there have been 81 winners. So far, reflecting a woeful imbalance in the discipline, only one has been awarded to a woman. Elinor Ostrom was honored in 2009 for her work on how the “commons” (common property such as natural resources) can be managed efficiently by agreement among users. The profession has belatedly come to recognize the underrepresentation of women in its highest reaches and (as efforts by the American Economic Association, for instance, attest) is trying to do something about it.
Last year the prize was awarded to Bill Nordhaus and Paul Romer for their work on environmental economics and growth. Recognition of their contributions had long been expected, but many were surprised that another contributor to the economics of the environment, Marty Weitzman, had been overlooked. This summer Weitzman took his own life, amid speculation that he’d grown despondent after being passed over.
Suffice it to say that competition among academic economists is intense, and the longing for recognition is almost universal.
James Meade, I should mention, was a notable exception. Oblivious to the impending announcement in 1977, this gentlest and most generous of economists took a bus from Cambridge to Buckingham to give a seminar. On arrival, he was met at the bus stop by a large group led by the excited vice-chancellor of the University of Buckingham. They told him he’d just been awarded the Nobel Prize. They celebrated over cups of tea.
The highest accolade hadn’t made much difference to Meade one way or the other: His pioneering work on trade and capital flows had been carried out long before the prize was a gleam in the Riksbank’s eye. Later, he was one of the first economists to propose adopting “money income” (nominal gross domestic product) as a target for monetary policy, and he used his Nobel memorial lecture to advocate it. More than 40 years after that address, the idea remains topical — and the Nobel Prize remains the discipline’s most cherished honor.

If Only the Sultan Had Learned from the Tsar
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/2019
Russia has intervened militarily in Syria and here is Turkey doing the same. But how wide is the difference between the two interventions and the two approaches! The first interference was based on an accurate reading of what is constant and what is evolving. It was based on interconnected steps that are made at the right moment and on a precise understanding of the balance of power.
The second was built on a hasty decision and erroneous estimates of climates and equations, and soon appeared to lack any legal or international umbrella.
Turkish authorities chose a poetic name for the invasion of northeastern Syria. Anyone who hears the expression, “spring of peace”, imagines that the intervention force belongs to relief agencies or the International Committee of the Red Cross, and that it provides tents to the homeless and food to the poor. The first reactions to the operation showed that we are facing a dangerous new chapter in the open war in Syria. Ending “Operation Spring of Peace” will be much more difficult than launching it.
There is not enough space here to list the twists of the Turkish policy in the Syrian crisis. But we mention the most relevant ones, namely the success of the Russian plan to recruit the Turkish player, whose Atlantic spirit shriveled, to give way to the Astana process, buy Russian missiles and threaten to drown Europe with Syrian refugees. When the Russian military intervention practically turned the page on the demands to topple President Bashar al-Assad, Erdogan’s Syrian dream was limited to the overthrow of the Kurdish entity, which appeared to be relying on a legitimacy derived from fighting ISIS, in addition to military, intelligence and political relations with the United States and the countries of the international coalition.
Erdogan tried to lure the United States into joining him in the “Safe Zone” project inside the Syrian border. Washington has shown resilience and postponed the decision, but Donald Trump’s administration is not in a position to engage in new conflicts, especially since Trump has already promised to bring back troops from “those silly and endless wars.”
When he lost hope of a permanent US cover for his operation, Erdogan carried out his threat unilaterally.
It is naive to say that the only reason for the Turkish military operation is Erdogan’s desire to escape from the inside, after his popularity waned and his party started to crumble. The issue is bigger and more serious. It is necessary to pay attention to the military and security establishment’s reading of national security requirements in the long term. Moreover, some of Erdogan’s opponents at home share his desire to uproot the “Kurdish belt” that is taking shape inside Syria and along its border with Turkey.
Those who follow Erdogan’s positions discover that he overestimates Turkey’s strength and the others’ dependence on it. This made him commit a serious mistake in reading the international scene. We will not be quick to recall the mistake of Saddam Hussein. The framework is different. But if a politician may commit an exaggeration in an enthusiastic election speech, he may not rely on a miscalculation to launch a military operation on the territory of a neighboring country.
Erdogan probably went too far in assessing Trump’s decision to withdraw some US troops from northeastern Syria. He considered it a US resignation from the region’s fate and an affirmation of the absence of the American policeman. Perhaps he bet that Washington would not take sides with local groups and organizations and risk old relations with an Atlantic country the size of Turkey, especially in light of the current tension with Iran. He might have considered that America needed Turkey more than the latter needed it.
Perhaps he also considered that Russia will not risk to blow up what has been achieved in the process of attracting Turkey. Perhaps he assumed that Europe would remain silent, fearing that the sultan would decide to expose the Old Continent to new waves from the “spring of refugees”.
Arab, European and international reactions showed that the sultan misjudged and misread. The adventure seems costly for the Turkish economy first. In addition, what if the Turkish army falls into a war of attrition inside and around the safe zone?
If the Syrian territory did not ignite under the feet of the Turkish army, Ankara will need to make concessions to Moscow, Tehran, Damascus and other capitals. Then what will happen if the Turkish operation is found to have given ISIS a golden opportunity to emerge again and topple international efforts for a solution that extinguishes the Syrian fire?
Rushed decisions have a high price. Erdogan is likely to return from his adventure with a drained economy and a degree of isolation to his country. The sultan ventures in a troubled region. Only if he stopped at the ingenuity of the Tsar, who is visiting Saudi Arabia Monday. The quest for stability in the troubled region is the big slogan of his visit. Relationships based on realistic reading and opportunities for collaboration despite differences… Enhancing trade exchange, oil cooperation, investment opportunities and political and diplomatic consultation…
Putin’s interview with Al-Arabiya confirmed the features of this Russian diplomacy. His ability to reap the benefits of two decades of building power, opening windows and establishing bridges. A powerful Russia presents itself as a stabilizing force, having acquired the ability to speak to everyone. The image of a brilliant firefighter who protects his interests by pouring realism water on the embers of crises.
Realistic reading is a prerequisite for stable and beneficial international relations. Putin recognizes the importance of Saudi Arabia, Islam and the world. He recognizes their economic importance and the magnitude of the massive transformation they are currently undergoing.
At the same time, he is aware of the dimensions of Saudi Arabia's strategic relationship with the United States, which is currently sending to the Kingdom defense reinforcements to curb Iranian adventures. Conformity is not a condition for good relations.
Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, knows that Russia is a major international player and speaks from the heart of the Middle East. The Kingdom knows that Russia’s presence in Syria gives its greater ability to influence the future of the country and the region… That opportunities for cooperation are wide, and that congruence is not a condition for deepening this cooperation.
Those were the starting points of the visits conducted to Moscow by King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Building relationships on facts and numbers and credibility in committing to what is agreed upon.
Putin’s approach is very far from that of Erdogan. The Russian president overturned the course of events in Syria with a military intervention that did not drown him in a new Afghanistan, but made him a greater need for the countries of the region.Erdogan’s operation in Syria threatens to lead his country to exhaustion and isolation. If only the sultan had learned from the tsar!

ISIS and Iran are the big winners in Syria
Prof. Eyal Zisser/TOI/October 15/2019
The United States could soon discover, similar to Israel in the cases of Lebanon and Gaza, that while it’s very easy to leave Syria and remove the forces stationed there, the Syrian problem, not to mention the ISIS problem, won’t leave quite as easily and Washington will have to confront them again – perhaps on US soil as well.
The withdrawal of American forces from northern Syria and the abandonment of the Kurds to the mercy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, brings to an end Washington’s involvement in the war in Syria; a failed involvement, lacking in purpose and objective, which could have disastrous consequences for America’s friends in the region.
US President Donald Trump was right in saying that his country has never had a particular interest in Syria, a country he described as nothing but “sand and death,” divided along ethnic and tribal lines and now a playground for Russia, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and even Israel.
But American forces didn’t enter Syria to end the bloody war raging there, nor did they ever purport to be the bearers of liberty and justice for the Syrian people. They also didn’t go there – as Israel had hoped – to curb Iranian expansionism.
The Americans’ goal was to fight the Islamic State group, which had seized control of nearly half of Syria and used those areas as a launching pad for a wave of terrorist attacks across the globe, including in the US. The Americans are the last to downplay the dangers of terrorism. Ultimately, the only attack on US soil since World War II didn’t come from Russia or China, but from al-Qaida, the Islamist group that spawned ISIS, and that murdered thousands of Americans in New York and Washington on September 11, 2001.
The American soldiers who were sent to Syria managed to destroy the caliphate ISIS had built. However, and with all due respect to the American troops there who carried out precision airstrikes and gathered quality intelligence with Israeli assistance, their success can mainly be attributed to the Kurds in northern Syria and western Iraq joining the fray, along with the Shiites in Iraq, to fight ISIS face-to-face on the ground. The Kurdish fighters in Syria are the ones who waged pitched battles and conquered village after village, town after town, from ISIS until the final victory.
But despite the collapse of the state it established, ISIS wasn’t eradicated as a guerilla force and it still maintains a presence within the Sunni populations in Syria and Iraq. Its ideology also hasn’t vanished, as testified by the recent wave of terrorist attacks, even on European soil.
At most, its defeat has forced the group back to its starting point, circa the summer of 2014, when it first embarked on its campaign of conquests in Iraq and Syria: a guerilla organization carrying out lethal terrorist attacks against Syrian or Iraqi army forces and other rivals, waiting for the right time to rear its head.
It appears very little has changed in the Syrian-Iraqi sphere in the past decade. The Sunni population is exhausted from the war but still feels oppressed and persecuted by the rulers in Baghdad and Damascus, who head regimes subject to Shiite and Alawite influence. This sense of oppression and even loathing grew under the shadow of the Iranian presence, which many Sunnis consider intolerable.
As long as the Americans maintained a presence in the area and as long as they supported the Kurds, ISIS struggled to raise its head. Now, however, it has another chance for a “comeback.”
We need to remember that Turkey has never fought ISIS. Neither does it view the group as a dangerous enemy, rather, at most, a useful tool to use against the Kurds but also against Bashar Assad and Iran. The Syrian dictator, by and large, also avoided fighting ISIS, focusing instead on the more moderate rebel groups he considered a threat to his regime. The only ones to wage all-out war on ISIS on Syrian soil, therefore, were the Kurds.
The United States could soon discover, similar to Israel in the cases of Lebanon and Gaza, that while it’s very easy to leave Syria and remove the forces stationed there, the Syrian problem, not to mention the ISIS problem, won’t leave quite as easily and Washington will have to confront them again – perhaps on US soil as well.

Turkish media, all supporting the invasion, would call the murder of Khalaf a “neutralization” of a “terrorist.”
SETH J. FRANTZMAN, JPOST/October 15/2019
The US decision on October 6 threw the future of eastern Syria up in the air, leaving whoever captures it the winner of America’s withdrawal.
The withdrawal comes after years of American involvement in helping the mostly Kurdish fighters defeat ISIS, and years in which the Kurds had fended for themselves amid the Syrian civil war, a Turkish invasion, brutal atrocities by Turkish-backed Syrian rebel groups, and a deal with Moscow and Damascus sealed the fate of eastern Syria. Some 200,000 people have fled their homes, a well-known Kurdish female politician, Hevrin Khalaf, her driver and several others were killed by fighters supposedly allied with Ankara on a road outside Tel Abyad in northern Syria, and uncertainty remains as thousands of ISIS supporters appear ready to flee their detention facilities.
The cynical decision by the US to leave parts of eastern Syria left many questions about what US President Donald Trump had decided in his conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The US said Turkey would move forward with a long-planned operation and US forces would not be in the area. Turkey had threatened for more than a year to attack the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria, which Turkey claims is linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and is a terrorist organization. Turkey expanded its rhetoric in the spring of 2019 to demand a “safe zone” along the border. Then Turkey said it wanted a zone 32 km. deep into Syria, and to resettle millions of Arab refugees in Kurdish areas by building 200,000 homes in 140 new towns, thus changing the area’s demography.
The US military, which was left out of the loop of White House decision-making, tried to deal with Turkey’s threats and concerns, by establishing a “security mechanism” and getting the SDF to destroy forts and obstacles to Turkey’s upcoming attack. The US thought it was building trust, but Turkey was merely getting the US to do its work for it. The US military had been training 110,000 SDF fighters and had no idea that in Washington they were about to be thrown into chaos, watching those they trained be killed and ordered to leave.
The US decision also said “Turkey will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters” in eastern Syria. Turkey hadn’t agreed to this, but Trump wanted to force European countries or others to deal with the ISIS detainees. Except for renditioning several of them, the US walked away as the ISIS fighters tried to flee their facilities. The SDF was told it was all alone, the skies would be opened to Turkish airstrikes, and the SDF was told to keep holding ISIS detainees while Turkey, a NATO member, attacked it. The US had trained the SDF, only to then allow it to be destroyed.
Turkey sought to invade parts of northeast Syria near Tel Abyad and other border cities such as Ras al-Ayn. But Turkey would do it in a unique way. While Turkish artillery and planes hammered the SDF, Turkey would inject the recently formed Syrian National Army into the border towns, using them as cannon fodder. The concept in Ankara was to get a plethora of Syrian Arab rebel groups to die fighting the PKK, so that hopefully they could cancel each other out while Turkey watched. The rebel groups chanted jihadist slogans and vowed that they would kill the “kuffar” (infidels), some of them even chanted the same slogans ISIS had chanted in 2014 when ISIS attacked Kobane.
Now, in 2019, it would be with Turkish support that extremists would be unleashed against US-trained SDF. Covered by air, these groups, such as Jaysh al-Sharyiqa, would be videoed carrying out atrocities. They would capture the MF 4 highway junction, trying to stop traffic reaching toward Kobane, Ayn Isa and other border areas. At checkpoints, the Turkish-backed groups would harass and murder civilians, including Khalaf, who ran the local Future Syria Party. Turkish media, all supporting the invasion, would call the murder of Khalaf a “neutralization” of a “terrorist.” At least some US officials saw the videos of the atrocities and thought they were likely war crimes.
From October 6 to 9, Turkey prepared its operation. Its forces were in place and the Syrian rebel groups, formed into the “National Army” just days before, were being moved to position. The SDF seemed hapless to oppose the attack. Until the last minute, they hoped Trump’s October 6 decision would be like his December 2018 decision to leave Syria. The EU expressed concern to Turkey on October 9 and the heads of NATO and the UN said that Turkey should show “restraint.” NATO and the UN both gave tacit approval for the attack. Turkey presented no evidence that the SDF was involved with “terrorism” or that it posed an “existential threat,” but Ankara mobilized supporters to argue that the US had mistakenly allied with the YPG in 2015, which formed part of the SDF, and the US had “used terrorists to fight terrorists.” US officials who helped create and train the SDF saw it differently, arguing that the US had sought to work with other Syrian rebel groups but they had failed.
With the airspace open, the green light was given to Turkey to begin the operation on October 9. US Special Forces in eastern Syria briefly tweeted what seemed like support for the SDF. Others would later say they felt ashamed at the attack on their SDF partners. But they had no say. Turkey had coordinated its offensive with Russia, even though the SDF was already putting out feelers to Damascus and Moscow that it might need to negotiate. Putin had returned from a vacation to the Siberian taiga for his birthday. He monitored the developments closely.
Further to the east of Syria in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region, former president Masoud Barzani and the KRG President Nechirvan Barzani both expressed concern, asking the US to stop the ensuing chaos. Washington wasn’t listening.
As Turkish bombs began to fall, Kurds in Kobane, the city that had resisted ISIS in 2014, fled toward the US base, demanding support and protection. There would be no protection. Instead, Turkey shelled areas near the base, causing concern for US forces. In Washington, US Senator Lindsey Graham was saying that the US would need to sanction Turkey over its attack on America’s Kurdish allies. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the US had not given Ankara a “green light” to attack.
In response to criticism, Erdogan warned Europe to remain silent or Turkey would send millions of refugees to Europe in a replay of 2015. European leaders took it in stride. Germany’s leader would eventually critique the operation and France would end arms shipments. Harsher condemnation came from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said Israel could extend humanitarian aid. Trump disagreed, arguing that the US had to leave or force war with Turkey. He wanted the US out of the “endless wars.” He argued that Kurds and Turks were ancient enemies, and that Kurds had not helped the US in the World War II. By October 11, more than 70,000 people had fled their homes in eastern Syria. Within days, that number swelled to 150,000.
The SDF suffered withering attacks from October 9 to 12, in which Turkey said around 500 “terrorists” were killed in more than 200 airstrikes. SDF Gen. Mazloum Kobani told the Americans that they had abandoned his fighters to be slaughtered. He was angry with William Roebuck, the deputy US envoy for the anti-ISIS campaign. On October 12, he told the Americans that if they couldn’t protect his people, then the SDF would have to speak to Moscow and Damascus. “Either you stop this bombing or move aside,” he said. He would not allow another Afrin, where Kurds were ethnically cleansed from their peaceful villages in northwest Syria in 2018 by a similar Turkish operation.
The Americans, who knew that Turkey had impunity to bomb eastern Syria, were coy, telling Mazloum to wait. Later, on the evening of October 12, videos emerged of Turkish-backed rebels executing Kurdish prisoners. It was now clear to the SDF leadership that this is what awaited them: their families would be bombed and driven from their homes and they would be killed, either in battle or executed after. Civilian politicians would also be hunted down and murdered, like Khalaf. Their executions would be filmed, like ISIS had done, with jihadists chanting religious slogans and kicking and beheading Kurdish bodies.
Understanding that the US had abandoned them to be ethnically cleansed and murdered, the Kurdish leadership knew they had to find a way to stop the attacks via Damascus. A video of a Kurdish woman cradling her dead child shocked locals as they saw more evidence of what was in store. After noon on October 13, after just four days of fighting, the Syrian regime media announced its forces would move to oppose the invasion. But it would take hours for Syrian regime vehicles, some from Hasakah and Qamishli, where regime elements had small bases, to do much. Meanwhile, almost 1,000 ISIS detainees fled a camp near Ayn Issa. US vehicles fled Kobane but remained in Manbij across the Euphrates River. American soldiers indicated they feared the deteriorating situation and being isolated. US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper indicated the US was withdrawing. Orders for the soldiers on the ground were unclear.
They had been unclear the whole time as the US opened the airspace to Turkey but remained in some areas. Clearly the US had agreed to Turkey’s attack in the area of the “security mechanism” near Tel Abyad. But it was not clear what US forces knew in other areas.
Abroad, there were protests against the attack on Kurdish areas, such as Rojava. But fears for the fall of Rojava were too late. It was already falling. Chris Scurfield, whose son had fought and died alongside the YPG against ISIS, wrote on Twitter how tragic it all had ended. “What a waste of time five years, thousands of lives, including my son, for what?” Former CIA head David Petraeus was also shocked and “deeply concerned” about the American withdrawal.
A local Kurdish official named Ismet Sheikh explained the logic that drove his people to sign a deal with Damascus. They had asked the UN to stop the attack, and appealed to the Arab League, but there was no solution. To save people, they reached an agreement, he said.
By 10 p.m. of October 13, there were mixed celebrations in Hasaka and Qamishli to the idea that the Syrian regime would return and stop the bloodshed. The Internet was cut in Qamishli and journalists began to pack their bags. They would now be hunted by the Syrian regime if they stayed, they feared. They headed for the bridge that connected the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to Syria. Mazloum was circumspect: “If we have to choose between compromises and the genocide of our people, we will surely choose life.”
Amid rumors that Russia would impose a no-fly zone, images circulated of Syrian forces moving toward Manbij, Tabqa, Tel Tamer and other areas. The Syrian regime was returning after seven years. The whole area that the YPG and SDF had helped build for six years had been destroyed in six days, at the whim of the American president. The 110,000 SDF fighters trained would likely be incorporated into the Syrian regime forces, bolstering Bashar Assad’s manpower. Turkey’s invasion had accelerated the regime’s success.
Retired US Marine general John Allen spared no words of outrage: “There is blood on Trump’s hands for abandoning our Kurdish allies.”

Terror Attacks in France: A Culture of Denial
 Alain Destexhe/ Gatestone Institut/October 15/2019
This latest attack also demonstrates how inadequately prepared France is to tackle the problem. The murderer was not just any civil servant: his security clearance allowed him to have access to sensitive files such as the personal details of police officers and individuals monitored by the department, including several individuals suspected of terrorism.
Beyond the political sphere, there is also a culture a denial of the Islamist threat in the French media. Journalists, academics and politicians, with a few exceptions, have consistently played down not only the risk of terrorist attacks but also the threat of growing Salafist radicalization in the country.
According to a study by the Montaigne Institute, 29% of Muslims in France believe that Sharia law is more important than French law. This means that almost one-third of French Muslims live according to values that are fundamentally incompatible with French or Western standards.
It is important to note that theses quotes are not from right-wing thinkers or activists. Both François Hollande and Gerard Collomb were long-time eminent figures of the Socialist Party.
These are typical examples of what some call "la démission des élites" (the abdication of the elites): refusing to act on a situation of which they are perfectly aware but afraid to mention because of the dominant ideology of political correctness.
Pictured: Police block a bridge near Paris Police headquarters, after a terrorist murdered four police employees on October 3, 2019 in Paris, France. (Photo by Marc Piasecki/Getty Images)
On October 3, 2019, a knife-wielding Muslim employee of the Paris Police Department Intelligence Directorate stabbed to death four other employees at police headquarters in the center of Paris, before a trainee police officer shot and killed him. While it was not the deadliest terror attack France has experienced in recent years, the fatal stabbings that took place at the Paris police headquarters were perhaps the most worrisome. Its author (a French public servant employed by the police), its highly sensitive target, and the catastrophic handling of the aftermath of the attack reveal the failure of the French institutions.
As it was the case for all recent terror attacks, French media and authorities first tried to downplay what happened. The attacker was initially described through potentially mitigating factors, such as his handicap (the killer is partly deaf and mute). It took 24 hours before it was eventually revealed that he was an Islamist militant who had carefully planned his attack.
That a radicalized militant had been able to remain undetected in a critical security institution for years sent shockwaves throughout the country. Members of the parliamentary opposition asked for the resignation of Home Affairs Minister Christophe Castaner, who at first had said that the attacker "had never shown any warning signs or behavioral difficulties."
For the record, this "very normal behavior" included cutting down to a bare minimum communication with women (he had for months being avoiding all women but his wife), attending a notoriously radical mosque, and having a phone full of Islamist contacts. His colleagues reported that already in January 2015, he had cheered the murderous Islamist terror attack on the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in front of other police employees. In many countries, a mistake of this scale would be enough for a government minister to resign, but not in France.
The whole picture of the attack, which is still not clear, demonstrates an incredible failure of internal control inside the French police. The French Parliament is now asking how the murderer managed to fly under the radar when everything in his behavior clearly signaled an increasing radicalization.
Notably, this is the first time that the French state and its institutions were directly targeted. Also for the first time, the victims were not journalists (as was the case for the Charlie Hebdo attacks in January 2015), Jews (who have been targeted several times in recent years) or civilians (such as the massive coordinated attacks in Paris on November 2015 that caused more than 131 deaths and 413 wounded).
This latest attack also demonstrates how inadequately prepared France is to tackle the problem. The killer was not just any civil servant: his security clearance allowed him to have access to sensitive files such as the personal details of police officers and individuals monitored by the department, including several individuals suspected of terrorism.
After Charlie Hebdo, the Bataclan in Paris, the truck-ramming massacre in Nice, and countless other attacks, French institutions have failed repeatedly. However, instead of recognizing this failure and assuming a share of responsibility, instead of hitting the problem of religious radicalization head-on, French President Emmanuel Macron regularly describes it as a "societal problem," that "institutions alone will not be able to solve." It is necessary first to recognize and name a problem in order to tackle it. In the current state of affairs, French political institutions are a long way from success in the fight against terrorism.
Beyond the political sphere, there is also a culture a denial of the Islamist threat in the French media. Journalists, academics and politicians, with a few exceptions, have consistently played down not only the risk of terrorist attacks but also the threat of growing Salafist radicalization in the country. A growing number of Muslims, while not advocating the use of violence, desire to live under Sharia law, separate from the rest of French society.
According to a study by the Montaigne Institute, 29% of Muslims in France believe that Sharia law is more important than French law. This means that almost one-third of French Muslims live according to values that are fundamentally incompatible with French or Western standards.
Although France is the European country most targeted by Islamists (263 killed since 2012), politicians are paralyzed by the fear of being accused by the mainstream media of discrimination against Muslims, of creating an amalgam between terrorists and Muslims or of "fueling tensions." Senior figures acknowledge a major problem only when they are no longer in charge. In a book published after he stepped down, the socialist former president François Hollande wrote:
"Islam? Yes, there is indeed a problem with Islam. Nobody doubts this. The Islamic veil is a form of enslavement. We cannot continue welcoming migrants without any form of control in the context of increased terror attacks."
Hollande never would have said such a thing when he was president. Like others, he sheepishly ignored the problem.
The same happened with Christophe Castaner's predecessor, Gerard Collomb, after he resigned as Interior Minister. He warned against no less than the risk of civil war in France.
"In some suburbs (...) it is the rule of the strongest, of drug dealers and radical Islamists that prevails instead of the laws of the Republic... Today we live side by side, next to each other, but tomorrow, I fear that we might end up facing each other."
It is important to note that theses quotes are not from right-wing thinkers or activists. Both François Hollande and Gerard Collomb were long-time eminent figures of the Socialist Party.
These are typical examples of what some call "la démission des élites" (the abdication of the elites): refusing to act on a situation of which they are perfectly aware but afraid to mention because of the dominant ideology of political correctness.
In the meantime, France's police officers are increasingly unmotivated and demoralized. Since the start of the year, more than 50 police officers have committed suicide. They face increasingly difficult working conditions, in particular, rioters in the suburbs of cities like Paris, Marseille, Lille or Lyon -- suburbs that are progressively escaping the control of the French authorities.
Attack after attack, the ritual is the same. There are flowers, tributes and words for the victims, political leaders affirm their resolve to act to protect the people. But after a few days, the news cycle ends and things go back to normal -- until the next terrorist attack.
*Alain Destexhe, an honorary Senator in Belgium, was awarded the Prize of Liberty by Nova Civitas in 2006.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Bolton's Purge, Trump's Obama Moments
Jiri Valenta and Leni Friedman Valenta/ Gatestone Institut/October 15/2019
In Syria, however, President Trump, like Obama earlier, seems not to have realized that when the U.S. withdraws, its enemies advance and fill the vacuum.
"I would describe myself as pro-American," Bolton said. "The greatest hope for freedom for mankind in history is the United States, and therefore protecting American national interest is the single best strategy for the world." He said that America has slowly constrained its range of action, through foolhardy entanglements with international institutions such as the United Nations, and naive bilateral agreements that promised too much to America's enemies in exchange for too little. — Graeme Wood, The Atlantic, March 8, 2019.
The American people do not necessarily elect candidates exclusively engaged in a search for peace. They were doubtless hoping that the new president would drain all the swamps. Bolton is correct: Americans support presidential candidates who are not appeasers, but defenders of American values, vital national interests and human rights.
In Syria, President Trump, like Obama earlier, seems not to have realized that when the U.S. withdraws, its enemies advance and fill the vacuum. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
Something unprecedented happened last month. A resigning National Security Advisor, Ambassador John R. Bolton, was forced out by a cabal of TV commentators and foes of Bolton and US President Donald J. Trump. Then, for perhaps the first time, Bolton publicly repudiated the president for his foreign policies. Meanwhile, the prominent American attorney, Alan M. Dershowitz, correctly declared Bolton's purge a "national catastrophe."
Indeed, Bolton's purge has serious national security implications for the future of the US. Kudos to him for courageously sacrificing his job if he felt the president was marching in the wrong direction. Bolton's pain may well have been caused by his no longer being able to endure Trump's "Obama moments."
"Obama moments", "Strategic Patience" vs "Strategic Savvy."
In 2017, those moments were defined as "leading from behind" an "absence of strategy" and "policies that have produced only failed states, Islamist-fed chaos, growing terrorist attacks in Europe, and catastrophic debt." To that, add, a lack of resolve, and a tendency to make imperfect compromises and concessions to foreign foes. Obama's own aides coined, as his doctrine, "strategic patience" .
By contrast, at the start of 2017, under the guidance of intellectual warriors, Defense Secretary General James Mattis and NSA General H.R McMaster, President Trump started his term with several "bangs." First, he punished Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad with a successful attack on a Syrian airfield for his presumed use of chemical warfare on his own civilians.
This assault by President Trump had tremendous significance: perhaps the most memorable "Obama moment" by former President Barack Obama was his 2013 back-step from his own red line against chemical warfare. He called back destroyers headed for Syria's shores, and presumably instead made a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to remove all chemical weapons from Syria,
After that aerial assault, Trump dropped a MOAB (Mother of All Bombs) on the Taliban in Afghanistan. This decisive move was followed by the dramatic use near North Korea's coast of a large armada of naval ships, coupled with moves on the North Korean dictator by the U.S. Army, Air Force and Trump's own vocal pressure.
In short, a new captain was steering the ship of state and his team did not put off problems in the manner of several past U.S. administrations. Instead, the new team met problems head-on, sending a clear message on the need to stop a maniacal North Korean leader from further developing his nuclear weapons and delivery systems that, as in Guam, were already capable of reaching American shores.
Signaling the end of "strategic patience," these moves seemed to debut an emerging new Trump doctrine that could be dubbed "strategic savvy" -- implying clever diplomacy, resolve, courage and the judicious use of both economic instruments as well as military force. Bolton, then a TV commentator and Chairman of Gatestone Institute, a role has since resumed, was possibly impressed by the president's "pro-American"-ness, as indicated in an interview published in March 2019:
"I would describe myself as pro-American," Bolton said. "The greatest hope for freedom for mankind in history is the United States, and therefore protecting American national interest is the single best strategy for the world." He said that America has slowly constrained its range of action, through foolhardy entanglements with international institutions such as the United Nations, and naive bilateral agreements that promised too much to America's enemies in exchange for too little.
Trump's Successful Domestic Policies.
Trump deserves applause for his success in building the Mexican border wall and spurring, in fewer than three years, the jaw-dropping growth of the U.S. economy by well-conceived economic policies, such as deregulating the obstacles to growth, and initiating difficult adjustments with America's strategic trading partners. The reason for Bolton's September 2019 disagreements with the president seems to have been the Bolton's growing objections to Trump's gradual return to the old unworkable Obama policies of strategic patience and retreat. A seasoned diplomat, Bolton also displayed the rare courage to fight back against media lightweights who falsely depicted him as an "uber hawk" and "war monger."
In some areas of foreign policy, such as strong support of America's democratic ally Israel, Trump and Bolton agreed, as they did on arming Ukraine with Javelin missiles, and keeping Iran well at bay.
Trump's Obama moments in Syria.
In Syria, however, President Trump, like Obama earlier, seems not to have realized that when the U.S. withdraws, its enemies advance and fill the vacuum. Casualties of this retreat included Secretary of Defense General James Mattis, who resigned apparently in objection to it, just as Bolton would resign months later, evidently over the president's invitation to the Taliban to come to Camp David, while excluding the US-allied Afghan government, and on the week of the commemoration of the 9/11 attacks on the US. Like Mattis, the patriotic Bolton sacrificed his job because of the foreseeable negative consequences to US national interests.
With America's Kurdish allies now left by Trump to be slaughtered by Turkey, as is currently under way, the U.S. troop withdrawal from also has a detrimental impact in the Ukraine, as countries negatively reassess U.S. reliability.
Russian President Vladimir Putin at that time launched what appeared to be a feint in the direction of the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, as he had done once before in 2015. Putin's real objective then seems to have been a new and bloody joint attack together with Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad and Iranian Revolutionary Guards against rebels in the Syrian province of Idlib. A few male Muslims interviewed in Belgrade explained that the Russo-Syrian offensive had intensified after it became clear that Trump's response towards the new Russian-Syrian carnage seemed to have been just an angry tweet.
North Korea: Back to Strategic Patience.
After thunderously demonstrating strategic savvy with Kim Jong Un in 2017-2018, Trump has meanwhile been as strategically patient with hm as Job. After the show of strength came summitry.
Trump seems to have believed he could talk Kim into cooperation like a real estate client. Thus, he praised the bloody and merciless Stalin-like Kim as having "a great personality," rejoiced at the "good chemistry" between them and other comments that were possibly equally unpresidentially embarrassing to Ambassador Bolton. As Bolton warned, "Under current circumstances, he [Kim] will never give up the nuclear weapons voluntarily." Is Trump unaware of how the North Korean officials have made a practice of wining, dining, entertaining and hoodwinking American negotiators as they build their nuclear arsenal?
Under President George W. Bush, for example, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was apparently so eager to have an agreement with the present North Korean dictator's father, that Rice engaged in what then Vice President Dick Cheney called, "concession after concession." In what looks like desperation, Rice even took North Korea off the list of state sponsors of terrorism. Again over Bolton's objections, Trump agreed to North Korea's major demand -- the cancellation of U.S.-South Korean military exercises, with no North Korean reciprocity. There was also another problem.
South Korean President Moon-Jae-in has not been making things easy for President Trump. His visit to North Korea was just a sad exercise in self-abasement.
Turning Point in Iran.
A major turning point came when the Iranians attacked allied shipping in the Persian Gulf and shot down a U.S. drone. Trump's decision not to respond militarily -- and his pulling back U.S. planes that were ready to bomb targets in Iran -- reminds us again of the fecklessness of Obama. Furthermore, his failure to retaliate against Iranian attacks on allied shipping in the Gulf and on a Saudi oil producing enterprise, is tantamount to encouraging future Iranian military actions against allied assets in the Persian Gulf.
Trump seems to be signaling that he thinks all differences can be solved by negotiations -- by him. However, President Richard M. Nixon, and all U.S. presidents since, would most likely have punished Iran for using military force -- with perhaps one exception -- Barack Obama.
Before Trump continues his attempt to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran's leaders, he might consider that, like the North Koreans, they will not stop their bomb-making. Period. So keep the sanctions, let the regime crumble and use force if and when necessary. One of Trump's greatest achievements took place when he scrapped the disastrous, unsigned "Nuclear Deal" with Iran (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) that actually paved the way for Iran to have as many legitimate nuclear weapons as it liked.
Troika of Tyranny: Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. There has also been worsening condition of Venezuela, part of what Bolton dubs "the Troika of Tyranny" in the strategic backyard of the US, the Caribbean. Venezuela, a formerly wealthy OPEC country, flush with oil, has in 20 or so years devolved into a failed state, whose people now live under unbearable conditions of starvation and want -- a sinkhole of drugs, crime and Hezbollah terrorists.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, with the help of Cuba, have flouted America's Monroe Doctrine by giving military aid to Venezuela's "socialist" regime and propping up the regime of its illegitimate president, Nicolás Maduro Moros. Not even the arrival of Russian and Chinese "advisers" and the delivery of military aid there, however, appears to have moved Trump. Significant action to oust Maduro has yet to be seen. Tweets and empty threats have, unsurprisingly, not worked.
Trump's "Obama moment" Emboldened Erdogan
The crescendo of the Russian-Syrian offensive in the summer of 2019 can now be seen in the tens of thousands of Syrian civilians fleeing their country and trying, through Turkey, to reach Europe. The new Syrian exodus, however, only seemed to provide Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with the excuse to issue repeated threats, blackmailing the EU and America that he could flood Europe with 3.6 million refugees from Turkish camps.
Lessons of the Gipper
President Trump might do well to follow the recommendations of military and foreign policy experts, who know history, strategy and geopolitics inside-out. What the president is displaying now is an unfortunate course correction with policies reminiscent of the worst decisions of the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations. Trump is perhaps starting to realize that he eventually will have to deal with the challenge that Erdogan presents to the U.S. He is no longer America's strategic ally, as could be seen when he chose to purchase Russian weaponry incompatible with the requirements of NATO, to which he was theoretically committed. Above all, Trump would be well advised to work towards some reconciliation and productive relationship with what now appears to be an emerging Bolton wing of the GOP.
In Ronald Reagan's late 1983-84 election campaign, when he was besieged by Democrats calling him a warmonger, he nonetheless refused to project the image of a president seeking peace at any price, and invaded the island of Grenada that had just deposed a brutal Leninist regime during a bloody coup against its prime minister. The American people do not necessarily elect candidates exclusively engaged in a search for peace. They were doubtless hoping that the new president would drain all the swamps. Bolton is correct: Americans support presidential candidates who are not appeasers, but defenders of American values, vital national interests and human rights -- particularly in its own backyard. It is not too late for President Trump. He is no shrinking violet -- but he does need to wake up.
*Dr. Jiri Valenta is a senior research associate at the BESA Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University, Ramat Gan. A former tenured professor at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, he also served as coordinator of Soviet and East European Studies for the Master's program for intelligence officers of all armed forces. A member of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, he is the recipient of the Jan Masaryk Silver Medal for his directorship of a post-revolutionary think tank in the Czech Republic. A recipient of several distinguished fellowships, he is the author of several books, some based on on-site research and covering Grenada, Nicaragua and Cambodia. For the last decade, he has worked with his wife, Yale School of Drama graduate Leni Valenta.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.