LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 09/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and obey it
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 11/27-31: "A woman in the crowd raised her voice and said to him, ‘Blessed is the womb that bore you and the breasts that nursed you!’But he said, ‘Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and obey it!’When the crowds were increasing, he began to say, ‘This generation is an evil generation; it asks for a sign, but no sign will be given to it except the sign of Jonah. For just as Jonah became a sign to the people of Nineveh, so the Son of Man will be to this generation. The queen of the South will rise at the judgement with the people of this generation and condemn them, because she came from the ends of the earth to listen to the wisdom of Solomon, and see, something greater than Solomon is here!"

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 08- 09/2019
Hariri says UAE promised Lebanon aid after high-stakes talks
STL Issues Public Service Announcement on Salim Ayyash
Army Arrests Suspect over Links to Tripoli’s June Attack
'Don’t Harm Lebanon Reputation', Aoun Tells Money Exchange Shops
Bassil Urges Unity on Dollar Crisis, Slams Attacks on 'President's Dignity'
World Bank Gives Lebanon a ‘Chance’: Energy Sector in Dire Need of Reform
NGOs Warn Lebanon Skies a Death Trap for Migratory Birds
Hizbullah’s Name Pops Up on Pentagon TVs
Future bloc convenes at Center House, hails Abu Dhabi visit outcome
Rahi signs partnership agreement with Foucher, meets Kubis
Legal action against The Economist
Khalil, Viyaj and Kumar Jha discuss Miga-supported projects
British Embassy: Rampling, Chehayeb launch UK-Lebanon Year of Education 2020 at AUB

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 08- 09/2019
Israel’s covert war against an Iranian shock attack. Gen. Kochavi prepares IDF counter-offensive
AMCD Calls for US to Mediate Talks between Turkey and Syrian Kurds
In Defense of Christians (IDC)
Trump says US has not 'abandoned the Kurds' in Syria
Turkey Ready for Syria Offensive despite Mixed Signals from Trump
Turkish Lira Trims Losses, But Worries over Syria Persist
Khamenei Says Iraq Protests Are ‘Conspiracy’ to Drive Wedge Between Tehran, Baghdad
Iran Admits Its Oil Industry Falling Behind Due to Sanctions
Iran Tells Turkey It Opposes Operation in N. Syria
Israel's Gideon Saar Challenges Lengthy Netanyahu Likud Rule
Saudi Arabia reaffirms its readiness to meet global oil needs

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 08- 09/2019
Israel’s covert war against an Iranian shock attack. Gen. Kochavi prepares IDF counter-offensive/DEBKAfile/October 08/2019
Europe Has to Choose a Side in the US-China Rivalry/Hal Brands/Bloomberg/October, 08/2019
Stalin Had Gulags, Turkey Has Courts/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/October 08/2019
ANALYSIS: Trump creates a new war zone in Syria/Yochanan Visser/INN/October 08/2019
Defining 'True Islam'/Sam Westrop/American Spectator/October 08/ 2019
Analysis/As Far as Trump Is Concerned, the Kurds Have Done Their Job and Now Can Go to Hell/Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/October 08/2019
Analysis/Trump's Decision to Abandon Syria's Kurds Is Bad News for All U.S. Regional Allies/Amos Harel/Haaretz/October 08/2019
Caught Between Trump, Turkey and Kurds, Pentagon Struggles to Piece Together Syria Strategy/Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt/The New York Times/October 08/2019
World must prepare for consequences of Turkish invasion/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/October 08/2019
CNPC withdrawal smothers last Iranian gas hope/Faisal Faeq/Arab News/October 08/2019
Brexit chaos has gone beyond a joke/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/October 08/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 08- 09/2019
Hariri says UAE promised Lebanon aid after high-stakes talks
Reuters/Arab News/October 08/2019
BEIRUT: Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri said on Tuesday the United Arab Emirates has promised investments and financial aid to his deeply indebted country, though work remains to seal the deal, after two days of high-stakes talks in Abu Dhabi.Hariri, who led a Lebanese delegation to the Gulf state, was seeking funds to stem a sharp loss of investor and depositor confidence that has pressured Lebanon’s currency and strained its lenders and central bank. “The Emiratis promised investments and financial assistance,” he was quoted as saying in an official transcript of his comments to reporters in Abu Dhabi. While the talks with the Emiratis were positive, Beirut “has to do some things to encourage them” to invest in Lebanon, Hariri added, without providing details. “We are negotiating with them the investments they want to make in various sectors, in addition to financial investments in some banks or in the central bank,” he was quoted as saying in the transcript published by his office. Faced with one of the world’s highest debt burdens, low growth and crumbling infrastructure, Beirut has vowed to implement long-delayed reforms to narrow its budget and current-account deficits, though little has so far been done. The country, which has a debt-to-GDP ratio around 150%, is also seeking to reverse a sharp loss of confidence in the Lebanese pound. Its central bank has been drawing down its foreign exchange reserves to repay the state’s maturing debt, and has promised to do more.
“POSITIVE RESULTS“
Hariri had hoped on Monday for a cash injection into Lebanon’s central bank. But on Tuesday broadcaster MTV quoted him saying this option “requires study” and that discussions on the topic included risks to the UAE of such a move. On Twitter, Hariri said “work is ongoing to receive” the promised funds, adding: “We have to follow up on the positive results of the visit and focus on the best investment the UAE can make in Lebanon.”There have been no further official UAE statements on Hariri’s visit since his meeting with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan on Monday, when the UAE lifted a ban on its citizens traveling to Lebanon. A significant UAE investment in Lebanon would mark a new phase in relations. av

STL Issues Public Service Announcement on Salim Ayyash
Naharnet/October 08/2019
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) has released an audio-visual and audio public service announcement as well as a poster with the biographical information of suspected Hizbullah operative Salim Jamil Ayyash, who is accused of involvement in the bomb attacks against the Lebanese politicians George Hawi, Marwan Hamadeh and Elias Murr. “This is part of the STL public advertisement campaign to inform the accused of the need to appear before the Tribunal and to invite the public to submit any information on the whereabouts of the accused to the STL. The poster and messages list the charges against Mr Ayyash and phone numbers at which the public can contact the STL in case they have any information about his whereabouts,” the STL said. The STL’s Prosecutor has indicted Ayyash for his alleged involvement in the three bomb attacks. The public advertisement campaign follows the STL President’s finding that reasonable attempts have been made by the Lebanese authorities to effect personal service on the accused in this case, and those efforts have been unsuccessful to date.“If within 30 days from the advertisement of the indictment on 07 October 2019, the accused is not under the Tribunal’s authority, the Pre-Trial Judge shall ask the Trial Chamber to initiate proceedings in absentia,” the STL said.

Army Arrests Suspect over Links to Tripoli’s June Attack
Naharnet/October 08/2019
The Lebanese army on Tuesday arrested in the northern city of Tripoli a man suspected of being involved in June’s Tripoli terrorist attack that left two policemen and two soldiers killed, the National News Agency reported. NNA said a Lebanese army patrol raided the residence of Sheikh Kanaan Naji in Tripoli’s neighborhood of Abi Samra and arrested him. Judge Marcel Bassil issued the warrant in relation to the case of gunman and suicide attacker Abdul Rahman Mabsout, who carried out the crime. Using a motorcycle, Mabsout in June fired on police and army vehicles in different parts of Tripoli killing two police officers and two soldiers and wounding several others before blowing himself up later when confronted by troops. LBCI TV station said Mabsout was a former member of the Islamic State group who fought with the extremist movement in Syria. It said he had been detained when he returned to Lebanon in 2016 and was released a year later. Naji was transferred to the Military Court in Beirut for interrogation.

'Don’t Harm Lebanon Reputation', Aoun Tells Money Exchange Shops
Naharnet/October 08/2019
President Michel Aoun on Tuesday met in Baabda with a delegation from the Money Exchange Union in Lebanon over local worries that Lebanon's dollar-reliant currency is losing value for the first time in more than two decades. The National News Agency said that Aoun has urged money exchange shops to safeguard the country’s higher interest and “not damage” its financial and economic reputation. He stressed keenness for a free economic system in Lebanon. Elias Srour, head of money exchange houses in Lebanon, said that “Aoun assured us that Lebanon's economic policy is free and subject to supply and demand. We in return assured him that we, as exchange houses, are committed to all applicable laws and the country's financial reputation concerns us. “Liquidity is available and the dollar is available in the country. Shipping companies are shipping large amounts of dollars, there is no need to panic,” added Srour. Many Lebanese have been rushing to exchange shops in recent days to convert their local currency into dollars over worries that Lebanon's dollar-reliant currency is losing value. Last week, $1 could be purchased for 1,650 Lebanese pounds at exchange shops, after the currency had been stable at 1,500 to the dollar since 1997. Although the official price is still pegged at 1,500 pounds to the dollar, people find it difficult to get hard currency at this rate from local banks.

Bassil Urges Unity on Dollar Crisis, Slams Attacks on 'President's Dignity'
Naharnet/October 08/2019
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Tuesday called for a “unified response” to the latest dollar shortage crisis in the country, as he slammed what he described as attacks on “the President’s dignity.” “Lebanon is facing an economic conspiracy but this does not absolve us of our responsibilities, because we have allowed our economy and finances to be this weak in the face of any sanctions, rumors or protests,” Bassil said after the weekly meeting of the Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc. “There should be a unified response from us all to what has recently happened regarding the dollar,” he added. Noting that reform should be “comprehensive” and should target “politicians and their privileges in the state” before targeting citizens, Bassil said banks and financial markets “should realize that something new is happening in the Lebanese State and should lower their interests.”Referring to the rally that the FPM will organize in Hadath to commemorate the “October 13 anniversary”, Bassil called on FPMers to turn out heavily to reject “insults against the President’s dignity.”“We will hold a central rally on Baabda’s gates on October 13 to tell everyone who we are,” Bassil said. President Michel Aoun served as the head of one of two rival governments contending for power in Lebanon from 1988 to October 1990, in his capacity as army commander. He declared a so-called “liberation war” against Syrian forces stationed in Lebanon on March 14, 1989. On October 13, 1990, he was ousted from the presidential palace after the Syrian forces invaded the areas that were under his control.

World Bank Gives Lebanon a ‘Chance’: Energy Sector in Dire Need of Reform
Naharnet/October 08/2019
The World Bank issued a clarification expressing readiness to lend a helping hand if the Lebanese government commits to a series of pledged reforms mainly focusing on the country’s ailing power sector, media reports said on Tuesday. The statement said the energy sector is “in urgent need of reform which the Lebanese government must put in the highest priorities.”According to the statement, the World Bank Group has no projects for Lebanon’s ailing electricity sector. But at the same time it said “if the Lebanese government commits to reforms, the World Bank will be ready to provide further expertise and concessional funding to achieve the desired reform objectives in this vital sector.”Experts see the statement has positive signals involving external backing of Lebanon, and giving the government a chance to reduce its public deficit which brought about the economic crisis in the country, said al-Joumhouria daily.

NGOs Warn Lebanon Skies a Death Trap for Migratory Birds
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 08/2019
Bird protection groups called Tuesday for urgent action to save endangered migratory species that are being decimated by illegal hunters over Lebanon. For the 41 species in Lebanon listed as particularly endangered, "the situation is really critical," said Fouad Itani, president of the Association for Bird Conservation in Lebanon. "If nothing is done, their numbers will continue to drop and some species will simply disappear," he told AFP. According to official figures, 2.6 million birds from close to 200 species were killed illegally in the country in 2014. Itani believes the numbers killed have risen since then. Lebanon lies on one of the world's most important migration routes and for many species -- such as storks, lesser spotted eagles and pelicans -- the most dangerous part of their journey is flying over the small Mediterranean country. "Hundreds of thousands of white storks are killed in Lebanon every year," Itani said. Bird protection groups have successfully raised awareness in some regions but the situation in the north remains "out of control," according to a joint statement by the Association for Bird Conservation in Lebanon and the Committee Against Bird Slaughter, based in Germany. The statement was released after a field visit organized for Lebanese and foreign officials Tuesday. Itani said poachers in the north "are shooting for fun, big numbers. They shoot even at night, using spotlights... They have WhatsApp groups to track the birds together."Countries such as Poland and others along migratory routes have pressured Lebanon to take action. Killing of birds has been reduced in some areas this year through the awareness campaigns and in cooperation with authorities, the statement said, but improved bird protection laws have yet to be enforced by the security forces. The joint statement called for the creation of a professional and dedicated wildlife crime unit to curb poaching during migration periods.

Hizbullah’s Name Pops Up on Pentagon TVs
Naharnet/October 08/2019
American journalists on Tuesday published tweets and videos on social media about a pop-up window screen that showed on televisions in the pentagon press offices displaying the word “Hizbullah.” Pentagon correspondent, Carla Babb, published a photo she has taken of her TV screen at the Pentagon. “So this just popped up on my TV screen as I was watching ⁦CNN...happened on at least two other screens at the Pentagon. Is this a Pentagon issue or CNN issue? Did Hizbullah just successfully hack into something?” she tweeted under the photo. Another tweet came from a reporter for the US army, Haley Britzky. Under a photo of her screen she wrote: “From the TV in the Pentagon bullpen. Literally not now, Hizbullah.”Shortly after she wrote: “It was up just momentarily, and things are back to normal now! TVs were on the news.”Lara Seligman, Pentagon Correspondent for Foreign Policy, tweeted under a photo of her TV displaying “Hizbullah”: “What just happened to the tv in the pentagon press bullpen?”

Future bloc convenes at Center House, hails Abu Dhabi visit outcome
NNA/October 08/2019
Future bloc on Tuesday convened at the Center House under the chairmanship of MP Bahia Hariri, to address the overall situation in the country. In a statement issued in the wake of the periodic meeting and read out by MP Mohammed Al-Hajjar, the bloc hailed the outcome of the recent visit by Prime Minister Saad Hariri to the United Arab Emirates. The bloc welcomed the UAE's decision to left travel ban to Lebanon, to be in effect as of today, thanking the UAE and its leadership and people in support of Lebanon and its economic recovery project. Future bloc also commended the UAE-Lebanese Investment Conference and the level of participation which reflects the scale of economic integration and the importance of exchanging expertise between the private sector parties of both countries. On the other hand, the bloc stressed the substantial need for the implementation of needed reforms, underlining the need to avoid procrastination in this regard.

Rahi signs partnership agreement with Foucher, meets Kubis
NNA/October 08/2019
Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Beshara Boutros Rahi on Tuesday welcomed in Bkerke French Ambassador to Lebanon, Bruno Foucher.
Patriach Rahi and Ambassador Foucher signed a partnership agreement to grant two additional scholarships to Maronite priests to obtain a master's or doctoral degree in theology from the universities of France. The partnership agreement signature comes as part of the commitments made by French President Emmanuel Macronduring his meeting with Patriarch Rahi in May 2018 in Paris, reflecting France's commitment to its relationship with the Maronite Church in Lebanon and its desire to strengthen it. In his delivered word, Ambassador Foucher stressed the "depth of relations between France and the Maronite Church," saying these deeply rooted relations date back to the days of King Louis. Patriarch Rahi, in turn, expressed appreciation for this "special initiative", thanking French President Emmanuel Macron. He hailed the deeply-entrenched relationship between France and the Maronite Church and the longstanding Lebanese-French friendship. On the other hand, Rahi welcomed in Bkerke the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis.

Legal action against The Economist
NNA/October 08/2019
Lebanese lawyers Khalil Qabbani, Rami Itani, Mohammad Doughan and Sana al-Rifai have taken legal action against British magazine 'The Economist' for damaging Lebanon’s reputation in an article that tackles "Lebanon's dreadful economic conditions and a potential collapse." The article also featured a photograph of the Lebanese flag disintegrating and the cedar falling off of it.

Khalil, Viyaj and Kumar Jha discuss Miga-supported projects
NNA/October 08/2019
Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil met with the Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the World Bank's Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), Viyaj Iyer, and the Regional Director of the Mashreq Department at the World Bank, Saroj Kumar Jha, with talks touching on MIGA-supported projects in Lebanon. They stressed "the intent of the Investment Guarantee Agency in continuing to cooperate with businessmen and investors wishing to undertake projects in Lebanon."Kumar Jha presented the World Bank projects being implemented in more than one sector, reiterating support for Lebanon, and stressing "the need to put the electricity plan into effect and guaranteeing its success, because of its significant impact on the overall Lebanese economic situation."

British Embassy: Rampling, Chehayeb launch UK-Lebanon Year of Education 2020 at AUB
NNA/October 08/2019
NNA - In a press release by the British Embassy in Beirut, it said: "British Ambassador to Lebanon Chris Rampling on Tuesday launched UK-Lebanon Year of Education 2020 campaign during the British Council's partnership agreement with the American University of Beirut (AUB) for Computer Delivered International English Language Testing System (IELTS) in the presence of Minister of Education and Higher Education Akram Chehayeb, MP Bahia Hariri, Director of the British Council David Knox, AUB Provost Dr. Mohamed Harajli and Dr Karma El Hassan, Director, Office of Institutional Research & Assessment at AUB, representative of the Lebanese Army Commander, General Camile Faisal, and representative of the HEAD of the Internal Security Forces Colonel Elie El Asmar.
The joint agreement will see the establishment of the first ever in Lebanon computer online delivered IELTS which will make it significantly easier for students to gain necessary English language qualifications, and compete in the global market. More than 10,000 organisations globally trust IELTS, which gives confidence to those taking the test that it is recognised by educational institutions, employers, governments and professional bodies around the world.
The Year of Education 2020 campaign builds on the UK's substantive education support to Lebanon, providing over $200 million between 2016 and 2021, placing it amongst the top education donors in Lebanon. The Year of Education 2020 campaign will see continued work with the Ministry of Education and Higher Education to expand education access, quality and systems. It will support more inclusive education for children with special educational needs, promote Lebanon as an important investment opportunity for UK EdTech firms, and strengthen and expand British-Lebanese university links. The campaign will also better celebrate UK educated Lebanese alumni and increase English language training - including in places outside of the capital- and champion the use of UK qualifications.
Following the event, British Ambassador Chris Rampling said: 'It is a great privilege for us to be here. Thank you to the American University of Beirut for hosting us and for their collaboration with the British Council on the launch of the Computer Delivered IELTS in Beirut. The partnership is not the first with this highly distinguished institution. But it is a great point of pride to me personally that the British Council, with its excellent history in this country, is partnering with one of Lebanon's top academic institutions.
And there is no better way to launch the UK-Lebanon Year of Education 2020 than with you all: Lebanese - and partners of this amazing country - who are determined to build a bright future for Lebanon and for those who live in Lebanon. Because the UK is proud to partner a country that not only values, promotes and prioritises education, but also a country that has bravely and commendably committed to providing education to all children within the country.
Four of the top 10 universities in the world are British. Over a third of Nobel Prize winners who have studied overseas have done so in the UK. The English language is truly the world's language, and UK qualifications are recognised for their quality and credibility across the globe. As a sign of our education leadership, in the last five years there has been a 90% increase in the number of Lebanese students studying in the UK. Education is not just about schools and universities.
And our support goes beyond further. Over 200 Lebanese students have studied in the UK through the prestigious Chevening programme and are now part of a wider network of over 50,000 Cheveners around the world. When it comes to training support, over 200 Lebanese Army officers have trained at the UK's elite military training institutions - some of the very best military establishments in the World. The UK is also proud to have trained 11,000 Lebanese Army soldiers here in Lebanon, along with training programmes for the Internal Security Forces. And we continue to work closely with the Ministry of Education and Higher Education to support quality formal, non-formal and inclusive education to all children across Lebanon.'
Minister of Education and Higher Education Akram Chehayeb said: 'The year of Education for us is the year of challenges on all levels. The challenge of ourselves to continue providing good learning despite the difficulties. The challenge to develop education and move to the digital era amidst all the pressures and economic difficulties. The challenge of openness on the educational systems adopted in the advanced countries despite the wars and regional tension and blocked horizon.
Today's ceremony is a symbolic event that reveals the level of excellence that we at the Ministry of Education and Higher Education are trying to reach, with the support of our true friends, namely the British Government and the American University of Beirut (AUB), along with the cultural, educational and technological renowned institutions. It is an occasion for us to express our pride of these friendships and fruitful relations, and to express our gratitude to the British and American sides, particularly that the UK is among the leading donors to Lebanon in the educational sector for Lebanese and non-Lebanese.'
AUB Provost Dr. Mohamed Harajli said: 'We look forward to seeing the impact of this Year of Education being celebrated by the British embassy in Lebanon, with events that will highlight and expand the great work that the uk in Lebanon and the British Council are in this country and the region. We are the American University of Beirut and we all know that America and Britain have a "special relationship" in the world, and we are happy to carry that on between our two organizations.'

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 08- 09/2019
Israel’s covert war against an Iranian shock attack. Gen. Kochavi prepares IDF counter-offensive
DEBKAfile/October 08/2019
The Yom Kippur Eve message broadcast by IDF Chief Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi held the key to Israel’s intention: “We will not let harm come to Israel and if it does, we shall respond with power.” This shorthand phrasing meant that if, on the 66th anniversary of the grim 1973 war, Iran’s leaders decide on another surprise attack on Israel, like the Sept. 14 cruise missile-drone assault on Saudi oil facilities, this country, unlike the US and Saudis, will hit back at strategic targets on Iranian soil. And if the attacks come from Hizballah in Lebanon or Shiite militias in Iraq, now massively armed by Iran with ballistic missiles and air defense systems, then Israel will direct its counter-offensive at those sources.
Kochavi’s words were carefully chosen. He did not say “all our power,” only “power” – thereby leaving the IDF with the option of follow-up counter-operations. He went on to say: “We have seven eyes open, conduct day-to-day situation assessments and make professional and responsible decisions with regard to offensive action for preempting threats, while also preserving balance.” The chief of staff was making it clear that no movement or military preparation across a vast swath of terrain in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon is lost on Israeli watchers, in the determination not to be caught off-guard like the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel itself were on Sept. 14. DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence source stress that the IDF is now facing its most challenging mission. How to overcome the failure of a single US or Israeli radar beaming on Iran, whether ground-, ship-, air or satellite-based, to pick up on the preparations to shoot missiles against Saudi oil facilities, even after they were already airborne. No one in the region noticed anything amiss until Iran’s missiles and drones actually exploded on their Saudi targets, hitting them with exceptional accuracy. It must be assumed that with all the precautions outlined by the chief of staff, neither Israel nor the United States has unraveled the riddle of how the Iranians managed to bamboozle all the most advanced regional and local defense systems. When Gen. Kochavi said that Israel is taking professional and responsible decisions with regard to an offensive, this indicated that, in the absence of answers to the riddle, Israel has chosen the tactic of an on-the-spot offensive response against the suspected aggressor. Away from the public eye, Israeli and Iran are using all their brainpower in a covert mind and cyber contest. The IDF cannot promise at this stage, however, to avoid being caught out by Iran or be sure of pre-empting a surprise attack. The coming issue of DEBKA Weekly (for subscribers) out on Friday, Oct. 11 will examine in detail how Tehran’s missiles managed to override US and Saudi radar, how Israel is preparing to avoid being caught off guard, and how the US military deployment in the region is changing in the wake of Iran’s Saudi operation.

AMCD Calls for US to Mediate Talks between Turkey and Syrian Kurds
WASHINGTON, DC, USA, October 8, 2019 /EINPresswire.com/ -- The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy stands by the free Syria Democratic Forces (SDF) including Kurds, Arabs and Christians in Northeast Syria, who have been resisting the ISIS Caliphate onslaught for years and have been a strong ally on the ground for the international coalition. AMCD applauds the US backing of the free SDF over many years and we wish this partnership to continue in some form until the final resolution of the Syrian conflict.
“I worry about Muslim Brotherhood militias who could take advantage of any new security plans imposed on Northern Syria,” said AMCD co-chair, Tom Harb. “These Ikhwan militias have taken part in ethnic cleansing in Afrin and have close relations with the ISIS jihadists. The Christians in Syria are extremely concerned about this possibility.”
"We are also concerned about the transfer of thousands of ISIS prisoners now in SDF detention camps to the Ikhwan militias,” added AMCD co-chair, John Hajjar. “We believe that these terrorists could be released to spread throughout the Arab world, Europe, and eventually, the US. Erdogan cannot be trusted as he has used the refugee issue to wreak havoc in Europe and to spread Islamists far and wide.”
“It is also possible that Iranian controlled Shi’a militias will advance to seize territory from SDF,” said AMCD vice-chair, Hossein Khorram. “Therefore, we urge the Trump Administration to maintain its support for the northeast free Syria and the SDF.”
We call on President Trump, whose support to the minorities has been clear since the campaign in 2016, to initiate tri-lateral talks between Turkey and the Kurds under US mediation, to resolve their conflict peacefully.
Furthermore, we support a plan by AMCD senior advisor, Dr Walid Phares, and offered to the NSC in January, calling for a multinational peace force to separate the Turkish and Kurdish forces along the border, thus ensuring security for both sides.
Rebecca Bynum

In Defense of Christians (IDC)
IDC Warns Turkey Against Harming Christians and Yazidis in Northeast Syria
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Date: October 7, 2019
Tel: (618) 606-5480
Email: sarah@indefenseofchristians.org
Washington, D.C.- IDC is deeply concerned for the Christian and Yazidi communities of Northeast Syria should the Republic of Turkey move into the region. There are over 40,000 Christians in the Northeast, which is a dramatic decrease from the 130,000 Christians who lived in this area before the impact of ISIS and the Syrian Crisis.
Should Turkey target the Christians or Yazidis in Syria, IDC will work with the Trump Administration and Congress to reinstate sanctions on Turkey immediately. When Turkey imprisoned Pastor Andrew Brunson, IDC worked with Congress to call for sanctions on Turkey, which the Administration successfully leveraged to free Pastor Brunson.
“President Erdogan has surely not forgotten the economic ramifications of sanctions due to the imprisoning Pastor Andrew Brunson, and as President Trump said today, we can do so again,” said Toufic Baaklini, President of IDC.
Religious minorities in Northeast Syria have reason to be wary of the Turkish government, especially after Turkey invaded Afrin in 2018 using Islamist militias and forced over 300 Christian families to flee. Many Yazidi communities were also targeted. Those affected remain displaced to this day.
###
In Defense of Christians (IDC) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization committed to the preservation and protection of Christians in the Middle East.
www.indefenseofchristians.org
For media inquiries: steven@indefenseofchristians.org
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/indefenseofchristians
Twitter account: @indefchristians
YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyYzPUUFrDowd3Kb8I7V8lQ

Trump says US has not 'abandoned the Kurds' in Syria
AFP/October 08/2019
ISTANBUL: Turkey said Tuesday it was ready for an offensive into northern Syria, while President Donald Trump insisted the United States had not abandoned its Kurdish allies who would be targeted in the assault. Trump has blown hot and cold since a surprise announcement on Sunday that Washington was pulling back 50 to 100 “special operators” from Syria’s northern frontier. The troops had served as a buffer preventing a long-planned attack by the Turkish military against Kurdish forces, who were crucial in the years-long campaign to defeat the Daesh group but are viewed as “terrorists” by Ankara. After appearing to give a green light to the Turkish invasion on Sunday, Trump later threatened to “obliterate” Turkey’s economy if it went too far. “Any unforced or unnecessary fighting by Turkey will be devastating to their economy and to their very fragile currency,” he tweeted.

Turkey Ready for Syria Offensive despite Mixed Signals from Trump
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 08/2019
Turkey said Tuesday it was ready for an offensive into northern Syria, while President Donald Trump insisted the United States had not abandoned its Kurdish allies who would be targeted in the assault. Trump has blown hot and cold since a surprise announcement on Sunday that Washington was pulling back 50 to 100 "special operators" from Syria's northern frontier. The troops had served as a buffer preventing a long-planned attack by the Turkish military against Kurdish forces, who were crucial in the years-long campaign to defeat the Islamic State group but are viewed as "terrorists" by Ankara. After appearing to give a green light to the Turkish invasion on Sunday, Trump later threatened to "obliterate" Turkey's economy if it went too far. "Any unforced or unnecessary fighting by Turkey will be devastating to their economy and to their very fragile currency," he tweeted. But he also gave a warm account of Turkey in other tweets and announced that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would visit Washington on November 13. "So many people conveniently forget that Turkey is a big trading partner of the United States," he said. Ankara had already brushed aside Trump's warnings, with Vice-President Fuat Oktay saying: "Turkey is not a country that will act according to threats."Turkey has always pushed hard against U.S. support for Kurdish forces in Syria due to their links with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) which has fought a bloody insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984.
Its defense ministry tweeted that preparations for an offensive in northern Syria have been "completed."Meanwhile, the Syrian government has welcomed the upheaval, spying an opportunity to bring the country's Kurds back into its fold. The Kurds have been "tossed aside" by Washington, Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad told the pro-government Al-Watan newspaper. Trump rejected that interpretation, tweeting: "We may be in the process of leaving Syria, but in no way have we Abandoned the Kurds, who are special people and wonderful fighters."
'Deeply concerned' -
Britain said it was "deeply concerned" by Turkey's plans to attack Kurdish fighters, who lead the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF says it lost some 11,000 fighters as the main frontline force against the Islamic State group. A spokesman for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said London had been "consistently clear with Turkey that unilateral military action must be avoided as it would destabilize the region". Iran, a key backer of the Syrian government, also opposed a Turkish incursion, with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif urging "respect for Syria's territorial integrity" in a call to Ankara. Meanwhile Russia's security council said it was important to avoid hindering the peace process in Syria. The council discussed the creation of a constitutional committee in the country and "remarked that at this stage everyone should avoid any actions that can inhibit the peace process in Syria," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Turkey says it wants to establish a "safe zone" on the Syrian side of the border where it could send back some of the 3.6 million refugees from the eight-year civil war. Erdogan said Monday that the operation into Syria could "come any night without warning".
Kurds argue that Ankara's goal is to dilute their dominance in the region with an influx of mostly Sunni Arab refugees now living in Turkey. Trump has faced a barrage of criticism, including from close allies in Washington, for appearing to leave the Kurds to their fate. Many officials were caught off-guard, with Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman warning Turkey of destabilizing blowback to the region if it invades. "The Department of Defense made clear to Turkey -- as did the president -- that we do not endorse a Turkish operation in Northern Syria," he said on Monday. A Turkish attack also raises the specter of what will happen to some 10,000 Islamic State group fighters currently being held in Kurdish detention centers. Around 2,000 of them are IS "foreign fighters," and Trump assailed U.S. allies in Europe for not taking back their nationals. If they escape or are released, they could reconstitute IS, less than one year after it was defeated and its "caliphate" disintegrated. Trump declared that it would be the responsibility of Turkey and other countries to deal with IS prisoners.

Turkish Lira Trims Losses, But Worries over Syria Persist
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 8 October, 2019
Turkey’s lira recovered on Tuesday after reaching its weakest level in more than a month, but investors were still worried about the fallout from Ankara’s planned incursion in northeastern Syria. Those worries were heightened late on Monday when US President Donald Trump warned he would “obliterate” the Turkish economy if the country went too far in its planned military incursion in Syria. The lira, which lost more than 2% of its value on Monday to close at 5.8370, recovered to around 5.8195 against the US dollar by 0811 GMT, after weakening to 5.8465 earlier in the day, reported Reuters.
Trump said he would “totally destroy and obliterate” Turkey’s economy if it took action in Syria that he considered “off limits,” after his decision on Sunday to pull 50 American special forces troops from northeastern Syria.The leader of the Turkish opposition Iyi Party, Meral Aksener, called Trump’s threat a “diplomatic catastrophe.”Turkey’s main share index, BIST100, was down 1.75%. The banking index declined 2.12%. However, the shares of cement companies that have production plants close to Syrian border, such as Mardin Cimento and Adana Cimento, rose two days straight on expectations of reconstruction of the area. The extensive area of Ankara’s planned incursion into Syria could lead to months of military activity that raises concern in the market, said one bank treasury trader. Trump’s threats also kept the lira under pressure, he said.
Currency depreciation could lead to expectations of a less-aggressive interest rate cut when the central bank meets later this month, the trader said. The US withdrawal will leave Kurdish-led forces in Syria who have long been allied with Washington vulnerable to the planned incursion by the Turkish military, which brands them terrorists. The Turkish defense ministry said in a Twitter post late on Monday that all preparations for a possible military operation into northeastern Syria had been completed. Tensions between the United States and Turkey have been simmering in recent months over issues including Turkey’s purchase of Russian missile defense systems and disagreements over policy in Syria. Turkey’s sovereign dollar bonds came under fresh pressure, with some longer-dated issues slipping to two-week lows. Bonds maturing in 2030 and beyond lost nearly 1 cent in a second day of decline. In a currency crisis last year, the lira lost nearly 30% of its value against the dollar, partly over concern about worsening ties between Ankara and Washington.

Khamenei Says Iraq Protests Are ‘Conspiracy’ to Drive Wedge Between Tehran, Baghdad
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 8 October, 2019
Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei described on Monday the anti-government protests in Iraq as a “conspiracy” sowed by “enemies” to drive a wedge between Tehran and Baghdad.Following the deadly unrest in neighboring Iraq, he tweeted on Monday: “Iran and Iraq are two nations whose hearts and souls are tied together... Enemies seek to sow discord but they've failed and their conspiracy won't be effective.”Khamenei added that bonds between Iran and Iraq would grow stronger day after day. More than 100 people have been killed in Iraq in anti-government protests that broke out on October 1. The protests turned violent as demonstrator clashed with security forces, who opened fire at the rallies. The protests began spontaneously in Baghdad and southern cities, without public support from any major political faction in Iraq. This was Khamenei’s first statement on the protests, said Iran’s state news agency IRNA. The protests precede Arbaeen, a Shiite pilgrimage to the city of Karbala. Arab social media users were divided in slamming and supporting his remarks. Dozens of Twitter accounts shared a photo showing Iraqi protesters burning the Iranian flag. Meanwhile, Iranian Police Chief Brigadier General Hossein Ashtari said on Monday that enemy conspiracies in Iraq were foiled by the people.
A top military adviser to Khamenei said those behind the unrest would be unable to deter Iranian pilgrims. "They want to scare people into not going to Arbaeen, but even if it rains arrows and stones, they will not be afraid," Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi was quoted as saying by Tasnim news agency.
AFP reported on Monday that Iran has urged its citizens planning to take part in the pilgrimage to delay their travel over the violence. Last week, Iran shut the Khosravi border crossing with Iraq at the request of Iraqi authorities as the protests raged.
The post was reopened on Monday morning and Iranians were making their way towards the shrines in Iraq, an official said, according to ISNA.

Iran Admits Its Oil Industry Falling Behind Due to Sanctions
Geneva- Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 8 October, 2019
Sanctions have led to Iran’s oil industry falling behind but Iran will resist, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said on Tuesday, according to the semi-official Mehr news agency. “The conditions in Iran are in a way that once every few years the oil industry receives a deadly blow and the economic sanctions can be considered one of those,” he said. “This has caused Iran’s oil industry to fall behind from the international position and space but we will resist in this area.”Iran also vowed over the weekend to stay the course when it comes to its oil exports, Iranian Oil Ministry’s website, SHANA, said. “We will use every possible way to export our oil and we will not succumb to America’s pressure because exporting oil is Iran’s legitimate right,” Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said on Sunday. US sanctions have hit Iran’s oil exports hard, cutting them down by some 80 percent, while US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has claimed that the US had managed to take most of Iranian crude oil off the market, saying that nearly 2.7 million barrels had been taken out of the market.

Iran Tells Turkey It Opposes Operation in N. Syria
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 8 October, 2019
Iran expressed to Turkey on Monday its opposition to an incursion into northern Syria. In a telephone call to his Turkish counterpart, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif urged Turkey to respect Syria's integrity and sovereignty.
“(Mohammad Javad) Zarif, opposed military action and emphasized respect for Syria’s territorial integrity and national sovereignty and the need to fight terrorism and bring stability and security to Syria,” state broadcaster IRIB said, about the phone call with Mevlut Cavusoglu. US President Donald Trump this week declared that US troops will step aside for an expected Turkish attack on Syrian Kurdish factions, longtime US allies against the ISIS group. Iran, Turkey and Russia have been working together as part of the so-called Astana group on the Syrian war, talks that have run parallel to UN efforts to find a solution to the conflict. Russia said on Tuesday it was not informed in advance by the United States or by Turkey about any agreements they had reached about plans to withdraw US troops from northeastern Syria. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters it remained to be seen how many US troops would be withdrawn, and that other details about the plans remained unclear. "We are very closely watching the situation," he said.

Israel's Gideon Saar Challenges Lengthy Netanyahu Likud Rule
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 8 October, 2019
With a simple tweet, Gideon Saar did what no Israeli politician from the ruling conservative party has done in more than a decade — openly challenge its chief, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The brazen move against the long-serving Israeli leader has solidly positioned the 52-year-old Saar as the Likud party's leading candidate to replace Netanyahu, who is fighting for his survival amid a pending corruption indictment and post-election political paralysis.
A former aide and senior Cabinet minister under Netanyahu, Saar has long been considered a rising star in Likud and one of the lone independent voices in a party that has, in general, blindly followed its leader, reported The Associated Press.
But that has begun to change. Netanyahu failed in two elections this year to capture a parliamentary majority, and the possibility of a criminal indictment in the coming weeks has hindered his efforts to head a coalition government. Seeking to solidify his status, the premier last week floated the prospect of a snap internal leadership primary in which he expected Likud to endorse him. But he quickly backed down after a two-word Twitter response from Saar: "I'm ready."It was a risky maneuver in a party that fiercely values loyalty and has had only had four leaders in its 70-plus-year history. Saar followed it up with a more detailed tweet clarifying that he was not out to topple the prime minister, as Netanyahu has long claimed. Still, Saar left no doubt about his ultimate objective. "No one is denying the prime minister's role as chairman of the Likud," Saar wrote on Twitter. "When there is a race for leadership of the party — as the prime minister himself initiated a few days ago — I will run."For Saar, it was a move long in the making. A former lawyer and journalist, he was first brought into politics 20 years ago by Netanyahu, who made him his Cabinet secretary during his first term in office.
Saar then established himself as a staunch nationalist who opposed Israel's 2005 withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and resisted the prospect of a Palestinian state. He quickly rose in the Likud ranks, twice finishing first in internal elections for its parliamentary list and enjoying successful stints as education minister and interior minister after Netanyahu returned to power in 2009. But as with others in Likud who saw their popularity rise, he too began to be perceived by Netanyahu as a threat. Their falling out was capped by Saar's active role in getting Netanyahu's nemesis Reuven Rivlin elected president, over the prime minister's objections.
With his advancement stunted, Saar abruptly quit politics in 2014 to spend more time with his new wife, Israeli TV anchor Geula Even, and their young children.
He made his comeback this year, chosen by Likud members for a senior position on the party's list of candidates in parliamentary elections. While campaigning hard for Likud, Saar has been its only top official to occasionally flaunt Netanyahu — resisting calls to legislate immunity for the prime minister and attending a media conference Netanyahu had called to boycott.
"Gideon has no fear and he's straight as an arrow," said Shimshon Shoshani, Saar's former director general in the Education Ministry, according to the AP.
Though he didn't share Saar's right-wing ideology, Shoshani said they worked in tandem on bold education initiatives and he saw a public servant fit to lead the country. "He's a man who has a vision, and he knows how to translate that vision into concrete plans," said Shoshani, an 82-year-old veteran of the Israeli bureaucracy. Despite his hard-line positions, Saar enjoys good relations across the political spectrum and is perceived as a potentially more comfortable partner for a unity government with the rival Blue and White party, which emerged as the largest party in last month's election.
But neither it nor the Likud control a parliamentary majority. A coalition government between the two parties appears to be the best way out of the deadlock, but Blue and White's leader, former military chief Benny Gantz, refuses to sit with Netanyahu because of his expected indictment on corruption charges.
Saar's independent streak has drawn frequent fire from Netanyahu's lackeys, and Netanyahu himself last year accused Saar of orchestrating a "putsch" with Rivlin to unseat him. Under Israeli law, if neither Netanyahu nor Gantz can form a coalition, a majority of lawmakers could theoretically choose an alternative as prime minister. Saar is widely seen as the politician most capable of winning such support.
With a primary election seemingly off the table for now, Netanyahu is talking about convening a Likud functionary body to stipulate he's the party's sole candidate for prime minister. Netanyahu's office has refused to comment about his plans. However, Limor Livnat, a former Likud Cabinet minister and Netanyahu ally, decried the conduct against Saar as a show of weakness.
"Instead of cultivating potential successors, Netanyahu has neutralized every Likud member who has shown any independence and has surrounded himself with yes-men," she wrote in the Yediot Ahronot daily. "Since when is announcing one's candidacy in a party primary construed as a plot against the incumbent party chairman?" Eran Davidi, a long-time confidante of Saar's, said Saar and Netanyahu have not met in five years and the enmity was likely to cost Saar a Cabinet post if Netanyahu succeeds in forming another government. But if he fails again, and the country heads to an unprecedented third election within a year, Davidi said he expected the long-hidden cracks to finally emerge within Likud.
While others have expressed interest in heading the party after Netanyahu voluntarily steps aside, Saar remains the only one who doesn't intend to wait till that happens. "He has ambitions and he has said that he came back to politics to lead the country," Davidi said. "Eventually, the Likud members will appreciate that he had the courage to run. That's the qualities of a leader."

Saudi Arabia reaffirms its readiness to meet global oil needs
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday, 8 October 2019
Saudi Arabia’s Council of Ministers, chaired by King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, reaffirmed on Tuesday the Kingdom’s readiness to meet global oil needs. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to sign a “charter of cooperation” between oil-producing nations, Al Arabiya reported. The deal concerns OPEC, as well as non-OPEC oil producers, including Russia.Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman is also set to discuss with his Nigerian counterpart a draft Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for cooperation in the fields of oil and gas. The final version of the agreement will be signed between the Saudi Ministry of Energy and the Nigeria's Ministry of Petroleum Resources. During the meeting, the Kingdom’s Minister of Information Turki bin Abdullah al-Shabana condemned the September 14 attacks on Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, according to his statement to the Saudi state news agency. The minister said he considers the attack as a threat to the region, global security, and global energy supplies. The attacks had resulted in halting more than half of the Kingdom’s oil production, or about five percent of global oil supply. Last week, Prince Abdulaziz told delegates at an energy conference in Moscow that the Kingdom’s oil production has successfully reached 11.3 billion barrels per day. He added that the Kingdom was ready to “move on” from the latest attacks and to prepare for the planned initial public offering of Saudi Aramco. The September 14 attacks had no impact on the Kingdom’s revenue, Saudi Arabian Minister of Finance Mohammed al-Jadaan said shortly after the attacks.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 08- 09/2019
Europe Has to Choose a Side in the US-China Rivalry
Hal Brands/Bloomberg/October, 08/2019
Europe has been at the center of nearly every great-power competition of the last 500 years, either as home to one or both of the protagonists or as the decisive theater of struggle. No longer: The world wars of the last century saw to that. Yet Europe’s nations are still capable of playing a critical role in the defining contest of this century: that between China and America. Or, they can allow the continent to be reduced to a weak, divided region that struggles to make its influence felt.
China desires the latter, and has a strategy for achieving it. The US should prefer an active and capable set of European allies, but its policies have too often played into Beijing’s hands.
The world’s center of geopolitical gravity has been moving steadily eastward for decades. The Asia-Pacific now significantly outstrips Europe’s shares of global GDP and global military spending. And although the rivalry between Russia and the West is significant, the trans-Pacific struggle between China and America is epochal.
Europe could be a critical swing power in that competition, defending the U.S.-led system that has benefited the continent so greatly. The European Union is still the world’s second-largest economy after the US, no small asset in an intense geo-economic competition. A few allies — especially France and the UK — still are still somewhat capable of projecting global power, and a relatively rich Europe could improve its militaries impressively if it chose to do so. European countries can also wield considerable diplomatic influence, especially through the EU and NATO. Perhaps most important, Europe remains the most coherent group of democracies in the world, which counts for a great deal in a rivalry between a liberal and an illiberal power.
There have been some moves toward greater European activism vis-à-vis China. The UK and France have sailed warships through the South China Sea in response to Chinese aggression. Germany’s leadership has become more concerned with Chinese human-rights violations and efforts to dominate high-tech industries. When Chinese President Xi Jinping visited France earlier this year, his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, said that the time of “European naiveté” on China was over.
The European Commission, the executive branch of the EU, has started to consider the idea that China is, as one strategy paper put it, “an economic competitor in the pursuit of technological leadership, and a systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance.” Proposals to strengthen scrutiny of Chinese investment and fortify European telecommunications, industry and innovation against Chinese influence and predation are gaining traction.
Similarly, Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary-general of NATO, has warned that “China is coming closer to us” and called for increased European cooperation with US allies in the Asia-Pacific. Looking to the future, one can imagine Europe, the US and the democracies of the Asia-Pacific cooperating to expose and counter Chinese political influence operations, and perhaps coordinating more explicitly on how to manage military threats in multiple regions at once. Yet the impact of European action on China will depend on how much unity the continent can muster, and on that issue there are signs of trouble.
Even as some of Europe’s leading powers — Germany, France, the UK — have become more skeptical of China’s policies, many of the continent’s smaller, poorer members, particularly in the south and southeast, have come to see Beijing as a source of badly needed commerce and capital. In 2017, for instance, Greeks were more likely to name China (53%) than the US (36%) as the country’s second-most-important partner, after the EU. A surge of political illiberalism in countries such as Hungary and Poland has created cracks in the continent’s democratic unity. Not least, the EU is on the verge of losing one of its most important members, as Britain moves toward Brexit. Europe has the potential to be an effective strategic player, but it may not have the cohesion.
This is good news for China. A cohesive, prosperous, democratic Europe will not take China’s side in a contest with the US, because the fundamental clash between liberal values and Beijing’s authoritarianism will stand in the way. A Europe that has thrived in an American-led world would not be particularly comfortable in a system led by a mercantilist China that demands strict deference from lesser powers. What China can hope for is a divided, dependent Europe — one that is unable or unwilling to side decisively with Washington because of its own internal rifts, decaying commitment to liberalism and reliance on Beijing’s largesse. China can’t win Europe over, but it can neutralize it by fracturing the continent and co-opting some pieces.
This is just what Beijing is doing. Following the precedent of its coercive economic behavior in Asia (chronicled by my colleague Dan Blumenthal), China has used the lure of trade and investment to discourage European countries from criticizing its political abuses at home or its policies overseas. China is cultivating the smaller, poorer and often less-liberal states of the EU to undercut European unity and improve its leverage with individual members. Beijing scored a coup this spring by inducing Italy to join its Belt and Road Initiative. Where economic influence goes, political and diplomatic influence will follow.
You might think that Washington would be responding by bucking up a democratic, unified Europe. Unfortunately, you would be at least partially wrong. The Donald Trump administration has pursued a typically inconsistent policy toward the continent, calling on Europe to get tough on China, even as the US gets tough on Europe.
The president and his advisers have vocally supported Brexit (even a “no-deal” Brexit in which the UK simply walks away), which will weaken the EU and remove a pro-American voice from that body. Trump and diplomats such as Richard Grenell, the U.S. ambassador to Germany, have sought to empower illiberal populists across the continent.
The administration has forged closer diplomatic and military ties with Poland — which makes sense in terms of containing Russian influence, but not in terms of stemming Europe’s erosion of democratic values — and Trump hosted the decidedly illiberal Viktor Orban of Hungary at the White House. The president has spoken of the EU as a foe (“worse than China”) and used tariffs as a cudgel against European economies.
To be fair, the Trump administration has also tried to mobilize Europe against China’s geopolitical gambits. It has pressured European states not to partner with Chinese companies in developing 5G telecommunications networks, and called for NATO to play a greater role in meeting the rise of Beijing’s power. After initially resisting entreaties from Brussels, the administration now seeks to enlist the EU and Japan in a common front against Beijing’s unfair economic practices. Yet many European countries remain worried about aligning too closely with Trump against China, because they fear that he will eventually cut a bilateral deal with Beijing. Just as important, any US-European cooperation against China is occurring in a broader context in which the US has often worked against a strong and united Europe.
Trump has his reasons for this approach. He believes that the US can get a better bilateral trade deal with a post-Brexit UK, and seems to think that America can maximize its influence with individual European countries by weakening the EU. He surely sympathizes with those European politicians who rail against integration and globalism in the same way he does. This strategy may help him win some negotiations with European allies. It won’t help the US win the higher-stakes game with Beijing.

Stalin Had Gulags, Turkey Has Courts
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/October 08/2019
[Canan] Kaftancıoğlu [now under arrest for old tweets] came to prominence only after her critical role in defeating Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Istanbul's municipal elections on March 31 and June 23, ending Islamist rule in Turkey's biggest city after 25 years.
On September 20, a Turkish court held its first hearing of a case against two Bloomberg reporters accused of "trying to undermine Turkey's economic stability.".... "They've been indicted for accurately and objectively reporting on highly newsworthy events," said Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait.
Thirty-six other defendants, including prominent economist Mustafa Sönmez and journalist Sedef Kabaş, are also on trial for their social media comments on Turkey's economy and banks.
In May, Erdoğan said that Turkey was still committed to full membership in the European Union. He must have forgotten that, among hundreds of other hair-raising democratic deficits, he is the president of a country that has banned more than 245,000 websites and domains.
According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, Turkey is the world's top jailer of journalists. (Images source: iStock)
From 1936 to 1938, the Soviet Union's Joseph Stalin brutally executed his "Great Purge," a more innocent name for the wholesale liquidation of "enemies of the state." The slaughter targeted, among others, Communist Party and government officials, journalists, academics, peasants, Jews, teachers, generals, members of the intelligentsia and many others. "Better that 10 innocent people suffer than one spy get away," said Nikolai Yezhov, chief of the NKVD (People's Commissariat for Internal Affairs). "When you chop wood, chips fly." In 1932, Stalin launched a war for the "Sovietization" of Russia. Seven decades later, Turkey's Islamist strongman and president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, launched his war to "Islamize" Ataturk's modern, secular Turkey.
According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, five countries are the world's top jailers of journalists. At the top of its list is Turkey, leaving behind China, Eritrea, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Of the 172 reporters being held in those countries, 163 were detained without charge or for offenses classified as "anti-state" -- the same crime for which Stalin jailed and exiled Russian dissidents. Erdoğan's witch hunt is still going at full speed.
At the beginning of September, a prominent Turkish opposition official was sentenced by a court to nine years and eight months in prison for insulting Erdoğan and "engaging in terrorist propaganda" for tweets posted as early as 2012 and beyond. Canan Kaftancıoğlu, head of the main opposition Republican People's Party's Istanbul branch, was also accused of "insulting the government and public servants and inciting hatred and enmity." All of the charges against her were based on tweets posted years ago. But why was she sentenced now?
Kaftancıoğlu came to prominence only after her critical role in defeating Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Istanbul's municipal elections on March 31 and June 23, ending Islamist rule in Turkey's biggest city after 25 years.
Kati Piri, the European Parliament's Turkey rapporteur, tweeted that the verdict was "surreal and outrageous," adding, "Erdoğan takes revenge for opposition's election victory. Unacceptable!"
More recently, on September 22, a Turkish man received a record-breaking prison sentence for insulting Erdoğan. Burhan Borak, a resident of the predominantly Kurdish province of Van in eastern Turkey, was sentenced to 12 years and 3 months in jail, for seven social media posts in 2014. The sentence was the severest punishment for cases of insult against the president, according to Borak's lawyer. (Between 2010 and 2017, 12,893 cases of insulting the president were filed, according to Professor Yaman Akdeniz, an academic and cyber rights activist.) With that, Erdoğan holds the title of the world's most insulted president -- a title he could have lost to Stalin if the Soviet dictator were still alive.
Instead of Stalin's gulags, Turkey has its courts. On September 20, a Turkish court held its first hearing of a case against two Bloomberg reporters accused of "trying to undermine Turkey's economic stability." The allegations against Kerim Karakaya and Fercan Yalınkılıç are based on a 2018 story they wrote about how Turkish authorities and banks were responding to the biggest currency shock in the country since 2001.
"They've been indicted for accurately and objectively reporting on highly newsworthy events," said Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait. "We are committed to them and to press freedom and hope that the judiciary will do right by acquitting them."
Thirty-six other defendants, including prominent economist Mustafa Sönmez and journalist Sedef Kabaş, are also on trial for their social media comments on Turkey's economy and banks.
The pro-Erdoğan media are full of joy over the trial. "This [Bloomberg's report and social media accounts] is an economic coup [d'état]," wrote Ali Karaasanoğlu, a columnist for the Yeni Akit daily and a staunch supporter of Erdoğan. "You [addressing the defendants] are suspects of a serious crime of aiming to appreciate the U.S., British and EU currencies."
Against such gloomy background, Erdoğan keeps on teasing the civilized world. In May, Erdoğan said that Turkey was still committed to full membership in the European Union. He must have forgotten that, among hundreds of other hair-raising democratic deficits, he is the president of a country that has banned more than 245,000 websites and domains.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

ANALYSIS: Trump creates a new war zone in Syria
Yochanan Visser/INN/October 08/2019
Pro-Assad, Russian forces prepare to face Turkish forces as US withdrawal clears way for new conflict.
The United States “is hatching a new war zone in northern Syria” read the headline above a report about US President Trump’s sudden decision to withdraw his military from what is called by the Kurds Rojava, the Kurdish autonomous cantons along the Turkish border in Syria.
Trump apparently took the decision without consulting anyone and after a telephone conversation with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is the only world leader who considers the Kurds of the Syrian Democratic Forces ‘terrorists’.
Following the latest reports about the developments in northern Syria one could say the headline hit the nail on the head. The Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces who effectively won the war against ISIS in Syria reacted furiously and without saying so made clear that they feel the US had betrayed them and exposed them to Turkish aggression. “All of our commitments to remove military fortifications between Tell Abyad and Sari Kani, withdraw combat forces with heavy weapons, risking a security vacuum as a result of the agreement,” the SDF said in a statement which referred to an agreement between Turkey and the US about the creation of a so-called safe zone in northern Syria.
A Turkish government official now says that Turkey cannot wait “a minute longer” to launch the long-anticipated “counter-terror operation” in Syria.
“Syria needs local governance not the PKK’s occupation.” he claimed referring to the outlawed Kurdish Workers Party in Turkey which is fighting an endless war with the regime of Erdogan. Local Syrian media already report about a new refugee problem as the direct result of the American decision.
Scores of Syrians are leaving their homes in panic as the SDF threatened all-out-war whenever Erdogan makes good on his promises and launches the new incursion in Rojava. “We will not hesitate to turn any unprovoked attack by Turkey into an all-out war on the entire border to defend ourselves and our people,” an SDF spokesman said in a statement. The same media reported that US Special Forces have already begun leaving the SDF-controlled border region and that the Russian-Iranian-backed pro-Assad coalition reacted by filling the vacuum near the city of Manbij.
Trump’s decision sets the pro-Assad coalition on a crash course with the Turkish army since Assad regards Turkey’s presence in Syria as illegal and as an occupation which can be fought using all means.
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem earlier accused Turkey of providing “terrorists with all forms of support, including weapons that are more sophisticated”.He was referring to Islamist rebels in the Idlib Province which are supported by the Erdogan regime.
Al-Muallem indicated last Friday that the pro-Assad coalition is determined to ‘liberate’ Syria from the last terrorist and would get rid of “foreign-sponsored Takfiri militants” a reference to the Turkish sponsored Islamist rebels in Syria.
According to the al-Masdar news site, Russian troops are already deploying in northern and eastern Syria to block the intended Turkish invasion. On social media multiple videos showed the build-up of Assad’s forces in the border region after news broke that the US troops would pull out of the area.
Trump, meanwhile, seemed to realize he had made a sort of mistake and indulged in damage-control. The President threatened to destroy Turkey’s already ailing economy whenever Erdogan makes good on his threats to invade Syria again.
The US would “obliterate” Turkey’s economy if Ankara does anything that, in his “great and unmatched wisdom,” he considers to be “off-limits” in Syria, the US President wrote in a new Tweet.

Defining 'True Islam'
Sam Westrop/American Spectator/October 08/ 2019
https://www.meforum.org/islamist-watch/59532/defining-true-islam
When the Washington Corrections Center in Shelton, Washington, last week decided to hire its first Muslim chaplain — referred to obliquely as a "religious coordinator" — it also published an infographic that explains "true Islam."
"Jihad," we are told, "does not mean 'holy war.' Often mistranslated in Westernized media, the term simply means 'to struggle' or 'to strive.'" Moreover, "Islam in its true form grants women man rights, and any Muslim man who oppresses women is not following the true words of Allah."
Based on the cited source for this text, "man rights" is supposed to be "many rights." In fact, the text for the infographic was not copied and pasted, but edited and condensed. It seems that a state government official saw fit to review and alter the text before publishing.
Should a state governmental body be dictating what "true Islam" is?
For a start, Islam is not, of course, a monolith. Sunni Islam alone comprises hundreds of competing religious sects, political movements, schools of jurisprudence and theology, and various sets of mystical beliefs. Within that pandemonium, there is an enormously diverse array of views. Some are violent, some radical, some quietist, some moderate, some reformist; and then there are all those groupings in between these categories.
Thus, there are indeed some Islamic clerics and activists who may agree with the Washington state government's explanation of "true Islam." But others certainly do not.
Yusuf Al-Qaradawi, one of the most prominent clerics in the Middle East (and the spiritual leader of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood), wrote a long book on the jurisprudence of jihad, in which the term refers clearly to support for armed struggle.
As a review of the book published on Qaradawi's own website (islamonline.net) explains, jihad is not about "spiritual values and behavioral virtues"; it is an armed struggle, and that "without jihad, the Ummah's boundaries will be violated, the blood of its people will be as cheap as dust, its sanctuaries will be less worthy than a handful of desert sand, and it will be insignificant in the eyes of its enemies."
Qaradawi's work, by the way, is frequently cited by leading American clerics.
A 200-year-old book republished in 2016 by Al-Azhar — the most important Islamic seminary in the world — only refers to jihad as an "armed struggle." And when, as NPR put it in 2003, "around the Muslim world, mainstream Muslim clerics are calling on their followers to make jihad, or holy war, against American troops" in Iraq, were they only asking for Muslims to practice a quiet internal struggle?
There are indeed Muslims — often from Sufi sects — who believe jihad to be a peaceful pursuit. And this is the point: there are myriad interpretations of Islam. From a non-Muslim standpoint, there can evidently be no "true Islam."
It is certainly not up to government bodies to determine whether beliefs are religiously valid or not. Unless, that is, the illustrious officials of Washington state government are declaring Qaradawi and the leaders of Al-Azhar to be outside the fold of Islam.
Similarly, there are clerics who believe that women should be oppressed, in clear contradiction to the mighty infographic's declarations. Take Yusuf Estes, for example, a prominent American Salafi cleric and a regular presenter on the American Islamic speaker circuit. Estes claims that "women do have a responsibility to obey their men, whether their fathers, brothers, husbands, or even grown-up sons." He instructs Muslim men with disobedient wives to "roll up a newspaper and give her a crack. Or take a yardstick, something like this, and you can hit [her]."
Once again, there are also many Muslims who find such rulings abhorrent. So, is Estes no longer a "true" Muslim? Of course not.
Washington state officials are not the first to offer such absurdities. They're everywhere. Barack Obama frequently spoke about Islam as a "religious that preaches peace." George W. Bush made similar remarks. Theresa May, when Britain's Home Secretary, told the Conservative Party conference that ISIS has "nothing to do with Islam." Even H. R. McMaster, while serving as Trump's national security adviser, reportedly stated that ISIS was "un-Islamic."
In fact, Washington state's source for its proclamations about Islam is rather peculiar. The infographic cites "Swedish Nomad," a blog published by a "Professional Travel Blogger and Photographer from Sweden." He is also very much a non-Muslim.
Relying on non-Muslims to explain "true Islam" to the world on behalf of Muslims everywhere is enormously helpful to the non-violent Islamists. These duplicitous extremists may spout hatred behind closed doors, but they too offer these infographic-themed platitudes in front of the cameras. This distances them from the jihadists and legitimizes them as examples of "true Islam."
By denying the diversity of Islamic thought and speaking only of a dichotomy featuring true Muslims on one side and ISIS on the other, politicians and government officials homogenize Islam, making it impossible to separate moderate Muslim partners from the dangerous Islamist networks that operate lawfully within the "true Islam" of Western Muslim communities. This obfuscates counter-extremism and counter-terror work and hurts efforts by Muslim reformists to challenge Islamist influence within their own communities.
The inanity of such rhetoric also leads to fascinating uncertainties. In September, flyers posted around the town of Winchester, Massachusetts, contained only the text, "Islam is RIGHT about women."
Local residents thought hardline Islamists were behind the message; a few online commentators thought progressivist activists were responsible; while the local Islamist organization, the Council on American-Islamic Relations, thought it might be the work of a mocking "Islamophobe."
The fact that no one could be sure is rather telling.
*Sam Westrop is director of Islamist Watch, a project of the Middle East Forum.

Analysis/As Far as Trump Is Concerned, the Kurds Have Done Their Job and Now Can Go to Hell
زفي برئيل/هآرتس: في مفهوم ترامي ليذهب الأكراد إلى جهنم بعد أن ادوا ما كان مطلوب منهم
Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/October 08/2019
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Turkey's Erdogan has proved that his unyielding stubbornness pays; only Russia can help the Kurds in Syria, but it has no interest in doing so.
In hindsight, the Kurds should have known it’s impossible to rely on U.S. President Donald Trump. It’s enough to count the agreements Trump has broken – including his withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal, his scrapping of trade agreements, his Israeli-Palestinian “deal of the century” that proved to be hot air, his freezing of aid to the Palestinians, and his colossal failure to forge new agreements or solve conflicts – to understand that this is a reckless system aimed at blowing up “old” orders just because Trump wasn’t a party to establishing them.
His abandonment of the Syrian Kurds to Turkey’s expected rampage through northern Syria is just another step in the same march of folly. In Trump’s eyes, the Kurds, who paid in blood in the war against the Islamic State and proved themselves the most effective local force against this terror group, are nothing but a militia that has done its job and can now go to hell.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has proved that his unyielding stubbornness pays. After snubbing America’s demand that he not buy Russia’s S-400 missile system and announcing that Turkey would continue buying Iranian oil and gas in defiance of U.S. sanctions, he has made Washington fold on the Kurdish issue as well. Trump has given him a free hand to control northern Syria, build Turkish outposts deep inside Syria (more than 30 kilometers – 19 miles – from the Turkish border) and change the demography of Kurdish districts by turning this area into a “security zone” where he will resettle 2 million Syrian refugees now in Turkey.
The large-scale Turkish invasion of areas east of the Euphrates River will presumably begin in the next few days. The Kurds will meet it with inferior forces that are incapable of stopping Turkey’s armored corps and air force, and much of their territory will be transferred to direct Turkish control. Turkey is then expected to begin a massive campaign to arrest fighters from the Kurds’ People’s Protection Units, members of the Syrian Kurdish party and anyone else suspected of cooperating with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, better known as the PKK, which Turkey considers a terror group.
Erdogan’s EU extortion
The Kurds’ options are limited. Without American backing and military assistance, they will lose not only the massive financial aid they receive from Washington, but also their ability to control the Syrian oil fields whose profits finance their day-to-day operations. Thus Kurdish districts are facing the same grim fate as the city of Afrin, which Turkey captured, destroyed and made into a Turkish outpost.
The Kurds could negotiate with the Syrian regime, but this is the same regime that for years oppressed them and denied them citizenship. The chances of the Syrian army going to war against the Turks to remove them from Kurdish areas are near zero.
With the United States removed from Syria, Erdogan can ignore European criticism of both Washington’s decision and Turkey’s planned invasion. He has a winning card against the European Union in the form of the refugee agreement he signed with it.
Under this deal, Turkey promised to prevent refugees from moving through its territory to Europe. But Erdogan recently threatened to open the gates and let refugees pass through Turkey at will if the EU doesn’t pay the remaining billions it owes under the agreement, and a panicked Europe is already negotiating with him to avert this threat.
Given this, all the EU can do about the Kurds is wag a finger. Erdogan also presumably raised the refugee agreement and its implications for Europe during the critical phone call with Trump, to convince the president to let Ankara carry out its plans in Syria.
The only power that could still prevent the Turkish invasion is Russia. But Russia has an interest in letting Turkey consolidate its position in northern Syria, because it can then implement the two countries’ September 2018 agreement for disarming and dispersing tens of thousands of armed Syrian rebels in the Idlib district.
A Syrian region under Turkish control could, at least theoretically, let Turkey offer these rebels – some of whom are supported by it – a quiet departure from Idlib. That would prevent a major offensive against them by Syrian and Russian forces that could drive a new wave of refugees into Turkey. The question is whether the rebels would agree to disarm rather than fight back against the Syrian forces, which have already begun retaking parts of Idlib.
Restoring Syrian sovereignty
Russia and Syria also have an interest in returning the Syrian refugees from Turkey and other countries, both to prove that Syria is once again a safe place and to bolster the Arab population of Kurdish districts.
But Turkey’s invasion also poses a major problem for Syria and Russia because the presence of Turkish troops on Syrian soil is an obstacle to their goal of restoring Syrian sovereignty over the whole country. Thus Ankara and Moscow will have to negotiate a timetable for a future Turkish withdrawal that will apparently progress in parallel with the diplomatic process to end Syria’s civil war.
Trump’s decision, made over the objections of the Defense Department and the CIA, could have an impact far beyond Syria and American-Turkish relations. It reinforces the view that Washington has no friends in the Middle East, and that any alliances still in force might be reconsidered at any moment and are at risk of being unilaterally annulled.
Saudi Arabia was the first to learn that U-turns are typical of the Trump administration. It was horrified to see Trump not only race toward negotiations with Iran but also brand the recent attack on Saudi oil facilities – which was apparently planned by Iran and carried out by forces answering to Iran – a Saudi issue for which Riyadh must craft a response alone.
America’s abandonment of Syria also plays into Iran’s hands, at least regarding diplomacy. It bolsters the claim that no one can rely on Washington, which abandons even its allies in times of crisis, and that Tehran’s refusal to negotiate directly with the Americans thereby rests on solid ground.
Israel, a blind fan of Trump’s, may also find itself in dire straits due to the “Trump method.” Ostensibly it can rely on Trump to give it a free hand in the West Bank, including annexing parts of it, as his advisers have already said. But the temporary nature of every Trump alliance means leaders must be cautious and suspicious.

Analysis/Trump's Decision to Abandon Syria's Kurds Is Bad News for All U.S. Regional Allies
عاموس هاري/هآرتس: تخلي ترامب عن الأكراد في سوريا أمر سيء بالنسبة لكل حلفاء أميركا في المنطقة
Amos Harel/Haaretz/October 08/2019
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President's move lays the groundwork for other players on the Syrian court to fulfill their interests – and Israel should worry, too/.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to move several hundred American soldiers out of the way as Turkey poises to invade southeast Syria is bad news for America’s allies in the region. Trump thereby gave a green light to a dangerous Turkish move while ditching America’s most reliable allies in Syria: the Kurdish fighters.
The president’s move paves the way for other players in the Syrian arena to realize their interests. First and foremost is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but ISIS, as well, and indirectly, the Bashar Assad regime in Syria and its two main supporters, Russia and Iran. From Jerusalem’s perspective, it is another warning sign that this president – until recently presented as Israel’s greatest friend ever in Washington – can’t be trusted.
Trump seems to shy away from any American military involvement whatsoever in the Middle East. In that, he shares the reservations of his predecessor in the White House, Barack Obama. In December 2018, after declaring victory over ISIS, Trump announced he would be removing all 2,000 American soldiers from Syrian soil. His statement peeved U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis, who quit, but in any case the decision was blurred down the line. The U.S. still has more than 1,000 soldiers in Syria’s northeast corner – mainly intelligence and commando units, and units operating missile batteries in support of the Syrian Democratic Forces, an association of anti-Assad groups whose main constituent is the Kurds.
The Kurds, backed by the Americans, blocked the Syrian army from taking back this region and at the same time, stymied an ISIS resurgence. At the al-Hol refugee camp, about 70,000 people hailing from areas controlled by ISIS remain under loose Kurdish supervision. Many are family members of the jihadi terrorists and the camp is considered a hotbed of violent radical fundamentalism. Turkey’s conquest of the area could scatter these refugees far and wide, and intensify the potential threat from the next generation of ISIS.
start operation
However, from Erdogan’s perspective, the real terrorists are the Kurds. He has been declaring for quite some time that he wants to establish a security zone, most of which would be in Syrian territory under Kurdish control, about 450 kilometers long and 30 kilometers wide, along the border. Erdogan has also said he intends to resettle a million Syrian refugees now in Turkey in that area. The alternative, he hints, is to allow the refugees to move to the European nations bordering on Turkey, an option they don’t appreciate.
The White House announcement about extracting the American soldiers was made at 11 P.M. on Sunday night Washington time, and in the beginning, it was overshadowed by the political crisis over impeaching Trump following the Ukraine scandal. But soon enough, independent pundits and experts began to express their nausea at the idea, apparently reflecting a similar sentiment in Pentagon circles and to a certain degree in the State Department.
If the Turks do invade, the Kurds could launch a guerrilla war against them and find new friends down the line to replace the Americans. And the leaders of the pro-American regimes throughout the Middle East are likely to ask, ever more urgently, just how much Trump can be trusted.
There is also a lesson for Israel’s leadership, apparently. Just a few months ago Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ministers were jostling one another during that mortifyingly groveling ceremony in which a settlement in the Golan Heights was named after the American president. Since then, a promise to sign a defense pact between the two nations, tossed into the ether on the eve of the second election, seems to have evaporated. Again one must wonder whether too much reliance hadn’t been placed on Trump, at the cost of Netanyahu distancing himself far from the Democrats and undermining traditional bipartisan support in Washington for Israel.

Caught Between Trump, Turkey and Kurds, Pentagon Struggles to Piece Together Syria Strategy
Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt/The New York Times/October 08/2019
WASHINGTON — For nine months, the Pentagon played down the presence of its 1,000 troops in Syria, hoping that President Trump would not focus on the extent to which the American military was continuing to fight the Islamic State despite his order in December to pull out.
On Sunday, the president appeared to say he had had enough.
Now, for the second time in less than a year, the Defense Department, the State Department, Congress and staff across the national security establishment are scrambling to respond to the words of a president who views Syria and the fight against ISIS as a battle largely won and done for American troops. On Monday, after a White House announcement the night before that Mr. Trump was moving American troops out of the way of a threatened Turkish incursion into Syria, Defense Department officials were struggling to put their already piecemeal Syria military strategy back together again.
It will not be easy. Caught between furious Kurdish allies who see Mr. Trump’s announcement as abandonment, an authoritarian Turkish leader who may take Mr. Trump’s words as tacit permission to move against Kurds in northern Syria, and an American president who has made clear he wants out of the region, the Pentagon is approaching a junction that the military feared was coming for some time.
The Defense Department “made lemonade out of lemons” the first time Mr. Trump announced a Syria withdrawal, said Derek Chollet, an assistant secretary of defense in the Obama administration. The Pentagon withdrew 1,000 of its 2,000 troops, moved some command elements to Iraq, and continued to aid Kurdish fighters still fighting the Islamic State and holding some 11,000 Islamic State prisoners of war.
President Trump’s promise to withdraw troops from Syria could leave one of America’s closest partners in the region more vulnerable to attack.
But officials did not trumpet their mission or their efforts.
It will be a lot harder to pull this feint again, military experts said, particularly if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey goes ahead with his threatened incursion into northern Syria, as it has been the presence of American troops alongside the Kurds that many believe has kept him at bay.
Pentagon officials were insisting on Monday that the United States remained firmly opposed to a Turkish incursion. “The Department of Defense made clear to Turkey — as did the president — that we do not endorse a Turkish operation in northern Syria,” Jonathan Hoffman, a Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement. He warned that “unilateral action creates risk for Turkey,” which would be responsible for thousands of Islamic State fighters being held by the Kurds.
But the departure of American troops from northern Syria makes it far more difficult to hold together the coalition fighting the Islamic State.
For a while, the generals at the Pentagon thought they were succeeding within the narrow confines of maneuver room that Mr. Trump gave them, obeying the president’s order while not deserting Kurdish partners and undercutting gains against the Islamic State in northeastern Syria. Defense Department officials devised a plan for the Pentagon to cut its combat force there roughly in half by early this past May, or to about 1,000 troops — and then pause with what commanders called a “residual force.”
The military would then assesses conditions on the ground and reduce the number of forces periodically, if conditions allowed, until the force levels reached the 400 troops that Mr. Trump approved in February.
And, above all else, military officials decided they would keep quiet about Syria. The strategy extended all the way to combat outposts in the country, where Special Forces officers were reminded that their mission could end quickly if the commander in chief was publicly reminded that there were still 1,000 troops there, according to one officer who recently returned from Syria.
The longer withdrawal timetable gave the Trump administration more time to negotiate with European allies who had said they would not leave troops in Syria if the United States withdrew all of its forces. It was also supposed to allow more time for Washington to work out details of a safe zone south of the Turkish border, where Mr. Erdogan wants to repatriate hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees now in Turkey. Turkey also wants to make sure Kurdish fighters cannot launch terrorist attacks across its border.
By late March, the American withdrawal settled around 1,000 troops — what the military calls an “economy of force” mission. The troops effectively operated between two allies: Turkey and the Kurds. Turkey is a decades-long NATO partner. The Syrian Kurds are much more recent allies, but have played a pivotal role as the major ground force against the Islamic State.
The problem for Washington has been that the two hate each other.
After Mr. Erdogan threatened in early August to carry out a cross-border operation to attack the Syrian Kurds, American diplomats and commanders rushed to establish a series of confidence-building measures — joint reconnaissance flights and ground patrols by American and Turkish forces — along a 75-mile stretch of the 300-mile border east of the Euphrates River.
The American troops in northeastern Syria, largely teams of Special Forces, also provide important logistics, intelligence and other support for Syrian Kurdish fighters who continue to carry out raids and disrupt operations against Islamic State targets.
Since the American-backed forces ousted the Islamic State from its last shard of territory in Syria seven months ago, the terrorist group has been gathering new strength, officials say, conducting guerrilla attacks across Iraq and Syria, retooling its financial networks and targeting new recruits at a giant allied-run tent camp in northeastern Syria called Al Hol.
“After enlisting support from the Kurds to help destroy ISIS and assuring Kurdish protection from Turkey, the U.S. has now opened the door to their destruction,” Senator Mitt Romney, Republican of Utah, and Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, said in a statement on Monday. “This severely undercuts America’s credibility as a reliable partner and creates a power vacuum in the region that benefits ISIS.”
Pentagon officials say the American presence, and several million dollars in assistance to maintain and upgrade the Syrian Kurds’ makeshift jails in northeastern Syria, has ensured the Kurds continue to detain about 11,000 ISIS fighters, including more than 2,000 foreigners.
“It’s hard to imagine Turkey has the capacity to handle securely and appropriately the detainees long held by the Syrian Kurds — and that’s if Turkey even genuinely intends to try,” said Joshua A. Geltzer, a former senior director for counterterrorism on the National Security Council in the Obama administration. “The release or escape of such detainees would instantly energize ISIS’s efforts, already underway, to regroup and surge again.”

World must prepare for consequences of Turkish invasion
بارعة علم الدين: على العالم أن يستعد لمواجهة عواقب الغزو التركي لشمال سوريا
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/October 08/2019
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has finally got his way; convincing Donald Trump to immediately withdraw US forces from northern Syria to allow a Turkish invasion. “WE WILL FIGHT WHERE IT IS TO OUR BENEFIT, AND ONLY FIGHT TO WIN. Turkey, Europe, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia and the Kurds will now have to figure the situation out,” Trump declared on Twitter, signaling the US’ abdication from any shared responsibility for global security. Kurdish leaders called this a “stab in the back” and warned that a Turkish incursion would turn the area “into a war zone”.
Daesh is rapidly regaining strength throughout Iraq and Syria, staging deadly attacks against civilian and military targets. Nearly 100,000 Daesh suspectsand family members are being held in huge camps, primarily in the custody of thinly-stretched Kurdish forces, which are now threatening to leave their posts and abandon efforts to curb Daesh in order to join the fight against Turkey. Just one of these detention camps, Al-Hol — described as a Daesh “city” — has about 74,000 inmates. Sources warn that Daesh is plotting mass breakouts, with these camps already used as staging points for planning terrorist attacks and extremist indoctrination.
There appears to be no plan in place for what would happen to these camps if Kurdish guards abandoned their posts, particularly as they primarily fall outside the area of expected Turkish occupation. A Kurdish spokesman asserted: “The military forces we have in Deir Ezzor and Raqqa — if necessary we are going to mobilize them to counter any Turkish attack. We are not going to accept any Turkish invasion, and we are going to use all our resources.”
With fears that Turkey will embark on a campaign of ethnic cleansing, this is a colossal betrayal of Kurdish factions, which have been among America’s staunchest regional allies, having lost an estimated11,000 fighters on the front lines against Daesh. Erdogan has announced plans to settle 2 million Syrian refugees, largely Arabs, in these Kurdish-majority areas, while aid agencies have warned that the invasion could displace hundreds of thousands of local people. Erdogan statedthat this “safe zone” will stretch across 480 kilometers of northern Syria.
This is a colossal betrayal of Kurdish factions, which have been among America’s staunchest regional allies.
For Erdogan, the invasion is partly about rescuing his sagging popularity after the humiliating defeat of an ally in the June Istanbul mayoral election and with the Turkish economy continuing to struggle. With nearly 4 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, Erdogan recently threatened the EU that, if billions of euros of funding didn’t continue, he could allow these refugees to flood into Europe. Let us hope he doesn’t make similar threats with the Daesh fighters that may soon be under his control.
A previous call to Erdogan last December convinced Trump to command the withdrawal of all US forces from Syria, prompting Defense Secretary James Mattis and Special Envoy Brett McGurk’s resignations. However, officials at least succeeded in delaying the president’s hoped-for immediate pullout, which would have surrendered the region to Daesh and Tehran. McGurk describes Trump’s allowance of the Turkish invasion as “a gift to Russia, Iran and (Daesh).”
Free from the restraining influence of former officials like H.R. McMaster, Mattis, McGurk and John Bolton, this withdrawal exemplifies Trump’s foreign policy doctrine in its purest form, with foreign commitments determined by the whims of his personal agenda and nativist “America First” instincts. Trump has been warned repeatedly about the prospects of genocide, Daesh’s resurgence and Iran emerging supreme — but he doesn’t understand, he doesn’t know, or he doesn’t care. Even staunch Trump defenders, like Sens. Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio, described his decision on Syria as “shortsighted and irresponsible,” and “a grave mistake that will have implications far beyond Syria.” Whereas such a foreign invasion would once have triggered weeks of UN Security Council wrangling, today this institution scarcely deserves a mention.
Tehran has, meanwhile, been systematically working to consolidate a corridor of unchallenged influence across Syria and Iraq. Having established a paramilitary bridgehead around Al-Qaim in the Syria-Iraq border area, it has been biding its time, given the progressive drawdown of US forces and the likelihood that a Turkey-Kurdish confrontation could create fresh opportunities. Deir Ezzor residents recently protested the expansion of Iranian activities, including the deployment of militia proxies, indoctrination and buying the loyalty of local public figures.
Russia and Turkey — despite their conflicting strategic interests in Syria — have sought to collaborate closely on military operations in areas like Idlib. Vladimir Putin may phlegmatically regard Turkey’s intervention as inevitable, despite howls of protest from his ally in Damascus.
The Arab world has long been excluded from the Syria arena. This must change. If the Turkish incursion empowers Daesh and Tehran, while further undermining Syria’s demographic fabric, this represents a massive strategic threat — not to mention the final nail in the coffin of a once-proud Arab nation. Arab nations must act together to ensure that any Turkish incursion is sharply limited in its objectives, timescale and geographical extent. Arab refugees should be returned to their original homes when conditions are appropriate, and not exploited as part of a Turkish effort to eradicate the Kurds.
It is too late to call upon a punch-drunk world to come to its senses. US forces are already withdrawing from their posts and the Turkish invasion is all but a fait accompli. What matters now is being ready for the consequences of this travesty: The re-emergence of Daesh and globalized terrorism; the expansion of Iranian proxies across central Syria; and yet another phase of an endless Syrian conflict.
Just as the Syrian and Israeli invasions of Lebanon in the 1970s and 80s had malign consequences that we still live with today, policymakers must be ready for the far-reaching ramifications of what plays out in Syria and the region over the coming days. Given the prospect of five more years of Trump, unchallenged Iranian expansionism and Erdogan on a Syrian power trip, the mind struggles to grasp how much worse matters can get.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

CNPC withdrawal smothers last Iranian gas hope
Faisal Faeq/Arab News/October 08/2019
Iran relies heavily on China trade but it it was no surprise that the state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) pulled out of a $5 billion natural-gas project — the second phase of the South Pars feld.
South Pars is the world’s largest gas field which Iran shares with Qatar.
The withdrawal of China effectively kills off Iran’s last hopes in developing this strategically important resource after France’s Total also exited the project in May of last year.
Just a few months earlier, the Iranian oil minister pledged that Iran would be able to produce an additional 140 million cubic meters of gas from South Pars after only one year. Of course, that was never achieved and looks more unrealistic than ever following the departure of these two energy giants from the scene.
Tehran had invested much hope in CNPC filling the void left by Total following the reintroduction of sanctions by the US. Iran desperately needs additional gas to meet rising domestic consumption.
Total, which originally signed an agreement to develop phase 11 of South Pars in July 2017, was the first major western company to invest in Iran since the lifting of sanctions imposed on Tehran.Tehran had invested much hope in CNPC filling the void left by Total following the reintroduction of sanctions by the US.
Tehran had invested much hope in CNPC filling the void left by Total following the reintroduction of sanctions by the US.
The French oil major had a 50.1 percent stake in the project. CNPC meanwhile held a 30 percent stake while Petropars, a local Iranian outfit owned by the National Iranian Oil Company, held a 19.9 percent stake.
So now the Iranian partner is the last man standing, shouldering the responsibility of developing the project without any of the financing or technical expertise of either CNPC or Total.
The withdrawal of the French company from the project came despite EU efforts to maintain the nuclear agreement and allow Iran to continue exporting oil and investing in upstream energy projects.
Brussels will not be able to protect Iran from economic sanctions despite its best efforts and European companies thinking about doing business with Tehran should pause to think about the potential consequences.
Faisal Faeq is an energy and oil marketing adviser. He was formerly with OPEC and Saudi Aramco. Twitter: @faisalfaeq

Brexit chaos has gone beyond a joke
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/October 08/2019
If Brexit is some sort of practical joke, and someone behind a hidden camera is having a good laugh — please stop it. It was not funny to begin with, just a bad joke played on the British people and the entire European idea. We have now reached the stage where it is almost impossible to discern fact from fiction, policy from wishful thinking, and right from wrong. Arguments aim to please those who make them and satisfy the lowest common denominator, not the nation. To make things worse, not only has the renowned British sense of humor been lost in the process, but so has Britain’s civility of debate, which used to be an example for the rest of the world. Leading these appalling trends is the British government and Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is clearly not only someone who has a special relationship with the truth and a preference for emotive and inciteful language, but is also not a very gifted politician.
In less than three months in office, he has made mistakes at every turn, leaving him a lame duck before his prime ministerial seat was even warm. Promising from the outset to activate Brexit on Oct. 31, even if a deal is not agreed, was no more than an empty threat — he knew it, his interlocutors in Brussels knew it, and so did all MPs who oppose leaving the EU without an agreement. This was followed by the dictatorial madness of proroguing Parliament in a blunt effort to prevent the elected legislative body from having the final say on one of the most important decisions in the country’s history. As if that wasn’t enough, Johnson’s move in expelling 21 of his own MPs, some of them long-time stalwarts, for not toeing the party line, and at a time when the party has no majority in the House of Commons, was an act of political suicide and further damaged the chances of getting an improved withdrawal agreement with the EU.
If Johnson’s ploys and plots have been completely detached from the current political realities, the Supreme Court recently handed him a much-needed reality check, ruling that it was impossible for the judges to conclude there had been any reason — “let alone a good reason” — to advise Queen Elizabeth II to prorogue Parliament for five weeks. Accordingly, MPs, who during the conference season usually avoid the Houses of Parliament, rushed back to reclaim democracy and restore some common sense.
That short lull in Parliament’s debates over Brexit did nothing to cool tempers and, once back in session, it was the prime minister who fanned the flames again and enraged those who disagree with his “do or die” Brexit plans. It is hard to tell with hardcore populists such as Johnson whether they understand that words can lead to political violence and the targeting of individuals — as was the case with the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox on the eve of the Brexit referendum in 2016 — or whether they just couldn’t care less as long as their incitements serve their political objectives.
It is hard to tell with hardcore populists such as Johnson whether they understand that words can lead to political violence.
Johnson sank as low as to describe as “humbug” a request by MP Paula Sherriff, in the light of the murder of Cox, to stop his inflammatory language. In his impudence, he argued that the best way to honor Cox’s memory was to “get Brexit done.” Since the slain MP was a remain supporter who was killed by a psychopath with connections to neo-Nazi groups, in this context the Brexit process is more of a caving-in to extreme right-wing violence than any sign of respect for her memory. It is a short step from using words such as “surrender,” “traitor” and “betrayal” against their opponents — as the prime minister and some of his close associates are doing — to the point where someone, somewhere is physically harmed. How long before Johnson and his supporters begin to accuse those who disagree with them of committing a “stab in the back?”
When the British government recently presented its new proposal, apparently addressing the main stumbling block of the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, it proved to be too vague to convince its European counterparts, and especially the Irish government, that it would not mean bringing back a hard border. There is a consensus that a hard border would undermine the 1998 Good Friday Agreement and threaten the peace across the island of Ireland. Furthermore, Johnson’s proposal requires a functioning administration in the North, but Stormont’s power-sharing governing body has been in deep freeze for nearly three years, with no sign of its future reactivation. Admittedly, in this proposal there is a departure from the deal reached with Theresa May’s government when it comes to treating the entire Irish island as a single market. However, the suggestion that Northern Ireland should leave the EU customs union along with the rest of the UK is unpalatable for Brussels and especially for Dublin. They smell a rat and won’t fall for it.
And here we are with only a few days remaining until Oct. 19, when, in line with the so-called Benn Act, Prime Minister Johnson will have to ask for an extension of Article 50 until January 2020. In public, Johnson and his ministers maintain that, deal or no deal, the UK will leave by the current deadline of Oct. 31, but government lawyers have now pledged to a Scottish court that Johnson will obey the law and request an extension. There have been suggestions that the prime minister should not only be sacked if he violates the law, but should also go to jail if he attempts to leave without an agreement.
Just imagine the perfectly British farce of a prime minister arrested for not requesting an extension of Article 50. But no comedy scriptwriter could have imagined it, and it is doubtful whether even the staunchest remainer, let alone any leave supporter, would see the funny side of it. It is more likely that the entire country would weep for what Brexit has done to it.
*Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg