English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese,
Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 05/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.october05.20.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
But if you had known what this means, “I
desire mercy and not sacrifice”, you would not have condemned the guiltless.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew
12/01-14: “At that time Jesus went through the cornfields on the sabbath; his
disciples were hungry, and they began to pluck heads of grain and to eat. When
the Pharisees saw it, they said to him, ‘Look, your disciples are doing what is
not lawful to do on the sabbath.’He said to them, ‘Have you not read what David
did when he and his companions were hungry? He entered the house of God and ate
the bread of the Presence, which it was not lawful for him or his companions to
eat, but only for the priests.Or have you not read in the law that on the
sabbath the priests in the temple break the sabbath and yet are guiltless? I
tell you, something greater than the temple is here. But if you had known what
this means, “I desire mercy and not sacrifice”, you would not have condemned the
guiltless. For the Son of Man is lord of the sabbath.’ He left that place and
entered their synagogue; a man was there with a withered hand, and they asked
him, ‘Is it lawful to cure on the sabbath? ’ so that they might accuse him. He
said to them, ‘Suppose one of you has only one sheep and it falls into a pit on
the sabbath; will you not lay hold of it and lift it out?How much more valuable
is a human being than a sheep! So it is lawful to do good on the sabbath.’Then
he said to the man, ‘Stretch out your hand.’ He stretched it out, and it was
restored, as sound as the other. But the Pharisees went out and conspired
against him, how to destroy him.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on October 04-05/2020
Health Ministry: 1,002 cases of corona
Two months since Beirut explosion, angry Lebanese mourn dead
Lance Armstrong races to raise funds following Beirut blast
Lebanon’s army prevents migrants risking sea crossing, mainly Syrian passengers
White balloons with victims’ names released on Beirut’s Port
Patriarch Al-Rahi to the political authority: You are not the masters of the
people but their servants, no group has the right to make Lebanon an ally of
this or that country in its conflicts and wars
Bishop Audi: The Status that we are living in currently hands over the wounded
Lebanon to those who can't heal its wounds, because they make the infection
wounds much worse.
Hezbollah Incites Tension Between Suwayda, Daraa In Syria
Banks' Association: To commit to closing branches in the towns covered by the
Interior Minister's decision
Emir of Kuwait receives Hariri
Army: Smuggling of 37 people by sea thwarted, organizer arrested
Sleiman meets Royard: France is able to help Lebanon in international forums
Hariri and Hezbollah: No to Miqati!Hariri and Hezbollah: No to Miqati!
Photographer captures loss and hope following Beirut blast in new photo series
A Tripartite Arrangement in Lebanon under Iranian Conditions/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq
Al Awsat/October, 04/2020
Lebanon-Israel talks will mark another win for Donald Trump/Raghida Dergham/The
National/October 03/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
October 04-05/2020
Pope: Market capitalism has failed in pandemic, needs
reform
Coronavirus: US President Donald Trump leaves Walter Reed military hospital
What happens if a candidate for president dies?
Trump Says 'Real Test' Lies ahead in his COVID-19 Fight
Pompeo to Cut Short Asia Visit amid Trump Hospitalization
Armenian Yazidis join fight against Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh
Azerbaijan Says Armenian Forces Shell Second City of Ganja
Azerbaijan’s No. 2 city targeted in fighting with Armenia
Erdogan Hints at New Military Operation in Northern Syria
Thousands of Israelis Rally Against PM Despite Lockdown
French rescuers search for 8 people missing after floods
Virus spreads on panel handling Supreme Court nomination
US push for Arab-Israel ties divides Sudanese leaders
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October
04-05/2020
This is America, a dystopian city on a hill/Janine di
Giovanni/The National/October/04/2020
A Few Global Concerns that Affect Us All/Richard Kemp/Gatestone
Institute/October 04/2020
A brave new dawn in Arab-Israeli relations/Khalaf
Ahmad Al-Habtoor/Arab News/October 04/2020
France’s push against ‘Islamist separatism’ should be supported/Faisal J. Abbas/Arab
News/October 04/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on October 04-05/2020
Health Ministry: 1,002 cases of corona
NNA /October 04/2020
The Ministry of Public Health announced, on Sunday, the registration of 1,002
new Corona infections, thus raising the cumulative number since February 21 till
today to 44,482 cases. It also indicated that 8 death cases were reported during
the past 24 hours.
Two months since Beirut explosion, angry Lebanese mourn
dead
AFP/Sunday 04 October 2020
Dozens of mourners gathered near what remains of Beirut’s port on Sunday to mark
two months since a huge explosion widely blamed on Lebanon’s political class.The
August 4 blast ripped through swathes of the city, killing more than 190 people
and wounding over 6,500.
Two months later, an investigation into the disaster has yet to make public its
results, further stoking public anger in a country mired in economic crisis and
battered by the novel coronavirus pandemic. On Sunday just after 6:00 pm (1500
GMT), at the exact time of the explosion, balloons bearing the names of each of
those who died were released into the sky from a street overlooking the port, an
AFP photographer said. A large sound system played a rendition of the national
anthem and Lebanese songs. Bereaved family members and activists, holding
portraits of the victims and placards demanding justice, briefly blocked the
road to traffic. They voiced anger at the country’s political class, widely seen
as directly responsible for the catastrophe through a mixture of corruption and
incompetence. “Is it too much to ask to know who committed this crime against
humanity?” asked Samia, a mother of two, whose husband worked at the port and
died in the explosion. “Every day we die a hundred deaths,” she added. “My
children have been deprived of the word ‘Baba’ for their entire lives.”Salwa
lost her uncle, who also worked at the port. “He was like a father to me,” she
said. “How could God forgive them, but may God forgive” those responsible, she
added. Another woman nearby interrupted her: “God have vengeance on them!” “We
demand that everyone who had a hand in this disaster is punished,” Salwa said.
The protest came after veteran cyclist Lance Armstrong led a bike ride to raise
money to provide medical and food aid to those affected and repair damaged
buildings. The immediate cause of the blast was a huge stockpile of ammonium
nitrate, a highly explosive fertilizer, stored without safeguards for over six
years in a warehouse on the portside and ignited by a fire nearby.
Lebanese authorities have rejected calls for an international investigation into
the incident, instead launching their own probe, which has so far resulted in
around 25 arrests. President Michel Aoun has acknowledged he was aware of the
presence of the ammonium nitrate days before the blast, while other senior
officials also knew of it and the dangers it posed to nearby residential
neighborhoods, according to anonymous officials.
Lance Armstrong races to raise funds following Beirut blast
Robert McKelvey, Special to Al Arabiya English/Sunday 04 October
2020
Renowned US cyclist Lance Armstrong came to Lebanon to lead “Bike For Beirut” on
Sunday, a charity peloton ride intended to provide much-needed aid to those
affected by the Beirut blast.
The three-hour ride started at Silo 12, the damaged grain store at the blast
site, and cycled through the streets of Beirut, briefly visiting each of the
four NGOs befitting, before returning to the Beirut Port.
“I think it looks like we’ve got about – standing here now, at the start – about
100 people,” Armstrong told Al Arabiya English from the starting point at Silo
12. “It’s tough to get it organized.”
On August 4, 2020, a massive explosion, caused by 2,750 tons of improperly
stored ammonium nitrate, occurred at Beirut’s port, right in the heart of
Lebanon’s capital. Over 200 people were killed, thousands were injured and
hundreds of thousands were made homeless. The reconstruction of affected
schools, hospitals, and businesses has been estimated at several billion US
dollars. Visiting Lebanon for the first time, Armstrong was struck by the scale
of the destruction left in the wake of the blast.
“We toured [the city] yesterday morning for a few hours, and then obviously
we’re going to do the ride through the explosion site and some of the
surrounding communities,” explained Armstrong. “It’s unbelievable. It’s unlike
anything I’ve ever seen. It’s apocalyptic.”
Organizers hope to raise both awareness and funds in support of four local NGOs
currently undertaking the vital tasks of reconstruction and rehabilitation
within Lebanon’s beleaguered capital, with all funds collected being split
equally between the four groups. “The impetus was Tom Barrak,” said Armstrong.
“Tom and I have been friends for a long time, and he asked me to come over and
do the ride; try to help as much as we can; bring some awareness; raise some
money. He was the main inspiration.”
Also participating in Sunday’s ride was legendary Lebanese sportsman and
explorer Maxime Chaya, one of the key organizers of the event – alongside Tom
Barrak and Ziad Ghandour – and a close associate of Heartbeat, an NGO
specializing in providing medical care and treatment to children born with heart
disease. “This is about helping those in need after the horrible August blast,”
said Chaya. “Coming from more than halfway around the world to show solidarity
in sport is amazing, and I wish other world-class athletes would do the same, no
matter what the sport or what their background is.”
Beit El Baraka founder Maya Ibrahimsha hopes to improve further upon the work
her group has already done, providing access to food, shelter, healthcare, and
education to struggling Lebanese families.
“We have been taking homes and moving people out of their houses, and working
very quickly under pressure to be able to put them back in their homes,”
Ibrahimsha said. “Now we are repairing 3011 homes and 202 small businesses in
the devastated areas.”
The third beneficiary group, Offre Joie, is a non-partisan NGO that has been
assisting Lebanese families since 1985. After the blast, Offre Joie responded
quickly by assessing the damages and setting up an emergency rehabilitation
program in Karantina and Mar Mikhael, two of the hardest-hit neighborhoods.
Finally, the Lebanese Red Cross, who provided many of the first responders in
the immediate aftermath of the blast and offer essential emergency medical
services, will continue in their mission to promote peace and alleviate human
suffering. Following today’s ride, Armstrong will be spending the next 10 days
in the Middle East on various events. Chaya said the Bike For Beirut team will
next travel to Dubai, where they hope to raise even more funds. Ride With Lance
will take on August 6 at the 50km Loop Al Qudra Cycling Track, in Dubai, led
again by Armstrong. However, the rest of the schedule has yet to be confirmed.
“I think that this would be an awful time for anyone, you know, to see this
amount of devastation,” said Armstrong. “As I said, it’s apocalyptic, but I
think its times like these are when the best people, the best communities and
the best comebacks happen. I wish them the best.”
Lebanon’s army prevents migrants risking sea crossing, mainly Syrian passengers
AFP/Sunday 04 October 2020
Lebanon’s army said Sunday it had prevented a boat carrying 37 mainly Syrian
passengers from leaving the country by sea, the latest attempt to make the
perilous Mediterranean crossing. The boat was stopped on Saturday night near an
island close to Lebanon’s northern port of Tripoli. Those on board included 34
Syrians, two Lebanese, and a Palestinian, with seven children among them. A
Lebanese man was arrested for organizing the operation, the statement added.
Lebanon, which hosts nearly 1.5 million people displaced by the war in
neighboring Syria, was struggling from a severe economic crisis and political
instability even before the coronavirus pandemic struck. That was exacerbated by
the massive August 4 explosion at Beirut’s port, which laid waste to whole
neighborhoods of the capital and killed over 190 people. In recent weeks, dozens
of Lebanese and Syrians have tried to make the sea journey from Lebanon to
Cyprus, authorities on both sides say.The Republic of Cyprus, a European Union
member, lies just 160 kilometers away. In mid-September, UN peacekeepers in
Lebanon rescued 36 people from a boat in trouble in international waters off the
Lebanese coast.
Families of the survivors said the boat had been adrift without food or water
for around a week, during which time several passengers had died or jumped
overboard to find help
White balloons with victims’ names released on Beirut’s Port
Annahar/Sunday, 4 October, 2020
BEIRUT: Two months after the massive blast that rocked the capital, parents of
the victims organized a sit-in near the #Beirut Port to mourn the souls lost and
remind those responsible that “we won’t forget, nor forgive.”
After blocking the Charles Helou Highway, the parents demanded that “the
government contact them and inform them of their latest findings and
developments in the investigation.”The relatives released white balloons
carrying the victims’ names into the air as a tribute to their souls. Fairouz
songs were played as the parents and citizens released hundreds of balloons.
“The judiciary in #Lebanon is highly corrupted and it is protecting the
officials behind the tragedy from being held accountable,” lawyer and activist
Wasef El Harakeh said. Protester held up a big sign that stated “Women and
children of the victims’ demand justice immediately.” “We will paralyze the
country if we have, and believe me we have the means to do so, if the government
does not release where they have reached in the investigations very soon,”
Ibrahim Hteit, spokesperson of the families of the victims, said. Hteit assured
the media that hundreds of people are ready to get down and protest with them
once they call for a national protest and urged officials “to not test” their
patience anymore. The August 4 explosion killed at least 200 people, wounded
over 6,500 others and left around 300,000 homeless. The FBI recently released a
statement that stated that the explosion was “not an accident.”
Patriarch Al-Rahi to the political authority: You are not the masters of the
people but their servants, no group has the right to make Lebanon an ally of
this or that country in its conflicts and wars
NNA/Sunday, 4 October, 2020
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, presided over Sunday Mass
at the Church of the Patriarchal Summer Residence in Dimane this morning.
Touching on the prevailing situation in his homily, the Patriarch addressed the
ruling class, saying: "You are not the masters of the people, but rather
servants," regretting, with great pain, the departure of many Lebanese people in
search of work opportunities, security and a decent life abroad.
"As I understand the suffering of young men and women and families and the
reason for their compulsive desire to stay away from tragedies, and as I share
their disappointment with everything, yes everything, I invite you, our young
women and men, to think carefully before making the decision to migrate," said
al-Rahi. He added: "I know that you are forced to leave, you walk and look back,
out of love for whom and what you leave behind. You carry your memories and your
wounds, hide your tears in your bags, and preserve Lebanon in your hearts."
However, the Patriarch said to those pondering the thought of leaving their
country that "the economic, financial, health and social crises are spreading
across the world, and the world is trembling from the unbridled Corona
epidemic...whereby all these factors do not facilitate the chances of settling
in an expatriate country.""Lebanon needs you in particular: your morals and
consciences, your revolution and your anger, your knowledge and culture, your
advancement, your civilization, and your way of life," al-Rahi said to the
Lebanese.
Meanwhile and amidst the current deadlock, where there is no government, no
rescue plan, no reforms, no resorting to the constitution, the Patriarch
underlined the need for a breakthrough without waiting for any external sides or
affiliations, be it to the west or east. "The enormity of the situation and the
possibility of developments of a diverse nature necessitate the acceleration of
the formation of a government that embodies citizens' aspirations, so that the
constitutional and charter work is organized," he said. Al-Rahi emphasized that
no group in the country has the right to make Lebanon an ally of this or that
country in its conflicts and wars.
"If only all the Lebanese leaders, spiritual, official, political and partisan,
would restore the initiative of rallying around the constitutional and charter
constants, and address the people's sufferings and the country's need to get out
of its deep crisis," he added wishfully. Over the border demarcation issue, the
Patriarch said: "We received with hope the Lebanese state's announcement that it
had reached a framework agreement to demarcate the land and sea borders with
Israel, allowing Lebanon to restore its international border line in the south,
facilitate the extraction of its maritime wealth of oil and gas, and end the
series of attacks and wars between Lebanon and Israel, according to Resolution
1701 of the Security Council, which places it on a path of peaceful negotiation
instead of fighting, without this implying a process of normalization."
"On this occasion, an agreement must be found to solve the issue of the presence
of about half a million Palestinian refugees on the land of Lebanon, and work to
demarcate the borders with Syria in the area of Shebaa Farms, and to end the
anomalous and ambiguous situation there," al-Rahi underscored. The Patriarch
asserted that through more steadfastness and resilience, God willing, Lebanon is
bound to overcome its ordeals and get out of its crises to reach much better
conditions.
Bishop Audi: The Status that we are living in currently hands over the wounded Lebanon to those who can't heal its wounds, because they make the infection wounds much worse.
Hezbollah Incites Tension Between Suwayda, Daraa In
Syria
Damascus/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 4 October, 2020
Syrian sources said that Lebanon's Hezbollah party is inciting tension between
the provinces of Suwayda and Daraa by providing arms to the Iranian-backed
National Defense Forces (NDF) to confront the 5th Corps, supported by Russia.
Hezbollah was active in recent weeks in southwest Syrian where factions who have
different affiliations are clashing, the Suwayda 24 news website reported citing
exclusive sources. “Hezbollah has been providing logistical support to the NDF,
which subsequently deployed armed members in Al-Qariya, strengthening its
positions with mortars.”The NDF had been deployed in most areas of the Suwayda
since 2013. Following tension with the 5th Corps, the forces also bolstered
their positions around Qariya. Last week, pro-Syrian regime forces and
Russian-backed factions sent large military reinforcements to the area after
fierce clashes erupted between the two sides. The clashes killed 15 young men
and wounded more than 50 after the 5th Corps tried to enter agricultural lands
in Qariya, For his part, Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Mowafaq Tarif urged
Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov in a phone call to intervene and end
the clashes. Earlier, in the period between April and June, several negotiations
took place among notables from the Druze-majority in Suwayda on one side and
their counterparts from Daraa on the other side to contain tensions between
Basra Al-Sham and Qariya.
Banks' Association: To commit to closing branches in the towns
covered by the Interior Minister's decision
NNA /October 04/2020
In an issued circular by the Lebanese Banks Association's General Secretariat
this evening, it indicated that "in implementation of the decision by Caretaker
Interior and Municipalities Minister, No. 1205 dated 2/10/2020, banks will
adhere throughout the upcoming week to closing their branches located in the
towns and villages subject to the aforementioned confinement decision."
Emir of Kuwait receives Hariri
NNA /October 04/2020
The Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah received this morning
former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, accompanied by former Minister Ghattas Khoury
and advisor Fadi Fawwaz. They offered their condolences for the passing of the
late Emir of Kuwait, Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah. Hariri also
offered his condolences to the National Assembly Speaker Marzouq Ali Al-Ghanim,
the Deputy Chief of the National Guard Sheikh Meshal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah,
Sheikh Jaber Al-Abdullah Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, Sheikh Nasser Al-Muhammad Al-Ahmad
Al-Sabah, Sheikh Jaber Al-Mubarak Al-Hamad Al-Sabah, Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah
Al-Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah, and a number of notable sheikhs. --- Press Office
of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri
Army: Smuggling of 37 people by sea thwarted, organizer
arrested
NNA /October 04/2020
Lebanese Army Command-Orientation Directorate issued a statement this evening,
in which it indicated that on 3/10/2020, its units arrested a boat used for
smuggling people and thwarted the smuggling of 37 persons (34 Syrians, including
7 children and 3 women, in addition to two Lebanese and one Palestinian). The
boat was arrested five miles from the Ramekin Islands, after it was spotted by
the army's naval radars which are tightening their surveillance to prevent
smuggling operations. After investigation and follow-up, the Lebanese
Intelligence Directorate arrested the person responsible for organizing and
preparing for the smuggling operation and handed over the detainees to the
concerned authorities.
Sleiman meets Royard: France is able to help Lebanon in
international forums
NNA /October 04/2020
Former President Michel Sleiman stressed during his meeting today with French MP
Gwendall Royard, "the necessity of pursing the French initiative in a way that
serves the supreme interest of Lebanon.""How can Lebanon rise from its multiple
crises without the help of friendly countries? Is it conceivable that these
countries, led by France, are more keen on the interest of the Lebanese than
Lebanon's authorities directly concerned with the repercussions of failure,
delay and impeding the Lebanese economy and the fate of the Lebanese?" Sleiman
questioned. "France is able to assist Lebanon in the UN Security Council, the
European Union and in the international group, to support Lebanon to ensure that
it is neutralized from the conflict axes and their negative repercussions," he
said. Sleiman reiterated herein his call for "the immediate start of sovereign
reform that confines arms to the command of the Lebanese state alone, and puts
an end to any weapons outside the framework of legitimacy, which is the actual
prelude to any social or economic reform." The meeting was also a chance to
review the regional and international situations, where Sleiman valued France's
positive role in helping Lebanon and its people.
Hariri and Hezbollah: No to Miqati!Hariri
and Hezbollah: No to Miqati!
Media Foundation/October 04/2020
The French ambassador, Bruno Foche, did not exclude Hezbollah from his farewell
visits, despite the loud speeches of Emmanuel Macron. Something to be expected
on the part of the representative of the state that “crushed” its political
balance towards the suburb without reaping the fruits of its move so far.
However, the farewell meeting during which the backgrounds of the fall of the
French initiative were discussed by each side did not constitute a breach of the
wall of the crisis that threatens, according to information, the international
support conference for Lebanon if the government is not formed in the fastest
time.
Governmental stalemate, which is becoming more and more a captive of
international and regional equations with the approaching maturity of the
American elections and monitoring the implications of cutting the bar on the
border demarcation with Israel through American mediation, a weak point has
entered its line that has yet to be crystallized. With the choice of a
government of specialists that is vaccinated with politicians or representatives
of the political forces, and it exclusively names them.
Here, a fundamental problem arises related to the extent to which international
financial support is provided to a government that includes representatives or
close to Hezbollah in the event of a techno-political government, and in light
of a decision fully clearly announced by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah “to participate
in any future government.”
And if President Najib Mikati took the initiative to present the aforementioned
proposal, however, the concept of “politicizing” the government is essentially
an initial proposition for the Shiite duo that the Presidency of the Republic
meets with fear of a “government entity” completely out of control with the
presence of a staff acting as a “machine” and not as a reformist political mind
It is assumed to be the stage title. From this point, negotiations for Plan B
will begin in the initiative, and this is what the French have become.
Insiders assert, in this context, that “the mechanism for managing the
initiative will change, as will some conditions that were imposed previously and
were not among the requirements of France.” This in itself will broaden the
range of options. However, this does not mean that Mikati, the author of the
proposal, may be seriously marketed as prime minister, because the internal veto
on it is effective! ”
In recent days, increased activity was noticed by President Mikati in
re-“reviving” previous communication links that served as keys to him with the
President of the Republic, Gebran Bassil, Hezbollah, and President Nabih Berri.
This comes at a time when Hariri distanced himself from the circle of adopting
more heads of government. There is a recent confusion in Hariri’s ear: “You must
immediately stop playing the role of the“ midwife ”of heads of government, as
this has negative effects on your image and your political balance!
Those who know behind the scenes of the Sunni accounts concede that Hariri has
adopted the option of Mikati. And they ask: “He abandoned Nawaf Salam, and it
did not occur to him to put forward the name of Tamam Salam, who completely
refuses to cooperate with President Aoun, and put Fouad Siniora on the shelf for
a long time. If it was the Grand Serail’s destination? They comment: “Mikati is
not an option for Hariri.”
Moreover, Mustafa Adib’s experience has undermined confidence among the members
of the Heads of Government Club even more. After I arrived, before Adib’s
apology, messages to this effect were sent to the designated chief from the
vicinity of Mikati, warning him of the consequences of complete submission to
Hariri so that he would not lose his chance to become the head of the Salvation
Government.
Here, many liken Adib’s “remote” management of “Hariri” to what he did with
former prime minister Samir al-Khatib, who withdrew from the race in December
2019 despite Hariri’s formal cover for him. The head of the Future Movement, in
their opinion, prefers to adopt someone who forms a bridge for him again to the
Serail, not someone who crosses the way back, and my timing is a possibility for
those who cross the road.
As for Baabda and Hezbollah, the opinion is shared: “I have no confidence in my
timing, nor is there any satisfaction with his political choices. And in the
center of Hezbollah is what it describes as a “conspirator” and “the most
volatile politician.”
In this context, circles close to Hezbollah refer to “the message that former
presidents Amin Gemayel, Michel Suleiman, Najib Mikati, Fouad Siniora and Tamam
Salam sent to the Arab summit in Amman in 2017, which greatly aroused the
party’s dissatisfaction that day, and its effects are still present, and is
considered a sign Black in his record, which also does not “serve” him in the
street. At the top of the list is the subsidized bank loans that do not
constitute a legal violation, but it is definitely an unethical step !!
In the narrow scenes, there are talks about the possibilities of Hariri’s
return, linked to amendments, that will enter the French initiative, which the
latter recognized as his “only reference as the last chance to stop the
collapse,” in parallel with the announcement that he would not run for prime
minister.
According to the information, Mikati’s choice is immature, and the internal veto
is greater than the external one, at a time when the president of the republic,
as well as the Shi’ite duo, is studying the possibility of talking about a
government that the political parties agree upon with competent faces headed by
Hariri or a name outside the club of prime ministers and benefits from “lessons”
In my experience Hassan Adeeb and Mustafa Adib. And it seems that going for a
name outside the “club of four” is still the most difficult, unless Hariri
decides otherwise.
As for President Aoun’s reluctance to call for intentional consultations to
appoint a new prime minister, this time it will not appear to be faced with a
counter-campaign in light of the joint talk “about the necessity of reaching an
understanding that protects authorship after the assignment.”
However, in the Republican Palace currently, there is a kind of alert due to the
Corona epidemic that affected a number of daily contacts with President Aoun,
prompting to take more stringent precautions, while it was confirmed, despite
rumors, that neither the president nor his wife were infected with the virus.
Therefore, any meetings, such as conducting consultations or routine
appointments, are not available at the present time except for the duty of the
three presidents to go to Kuwait on Monday to offer the duty of condolence to
the late Emir of Kuwait.
Photographer captures loss and hope following Beirut
blast in new photo series
Robert McKelvey, Al Arabiya English/October 04/2020
A few days after the August 4 Beirut port explosion that devastated Lebanon’s
capital city, Lebanese photographer Joe Khoury walked through the neighborhoods
of Gemmayze and Mar Mikhael, with 30 postcards bearing images of heritage homes
in hand, trying to find their now-ravaged counterparts.
In 2016, Khoury began his “Bouyout Beirut” (Houses of Beirut) postcard series,
focusing on the beautiful French-mandate and Ottoman era buildings of the
Lebanese capital, intending to showcase a cultural treasure hidden in plain
sight.
Now, four years on, the same buildings he photographed lie in ruins. Together
with his wife and partner, Gabriela Cardozo, the pair left the corresponding
postcards in the rubble of the houses, hoping to remind people of what these
structures looked like before, and what might be lost if they are not restored.
“We were really shocked,” Khoury told Al Arabiya English. “Some of our friends
were there and they let me go up on the building where it was destroyed. You
could see the blood on the walls. “Someone called and told me that these houses
I had shot were all gone,” he added. “A couple of friends, and even some members
of my family, told us: ‘You need to go and take pictures of them.’”The port
explosion has claimed at least 190 lives and caused thousands of injuries, along
with billions in property damage. Gemmayze and Mar Mikhael – two of the city’s
oldest and most popular neighborhoods – are situated near the port and were hard
hit in the blast. Two months later, efforts to clear debris and repair damage
are still ongoing.
Khoury has revived his series with a new set of photographs, contrasting the
earlier snapshots by holding them up to the ruined facades of the buildings.
Unlike his previous work, these images lay bare the brutal damage done to these
beloved structures, many of which will have to be painstakingly restored, some
already having endured decades of neglect and internecine conflict during the
Lebanese Civil War.
“When we first started this project, we wanted to keep these [buildings]
preserved in images,” Khoury said. “You tend to think that these houses are
going to stay after we’re gone, because they’ve been there for a long time. We
didn’t think they were going to fall down.”
The original series comprised 10 postcards documenting abandoned structures and
20 postcards that featured renovated and restored houses, some of which have
been converted into businesses or restaurants, like Appetito Trattoria, which
had its pastel blue façade torn open by the blast.
“We wanted to do something of a different approach from the common postcards
that you see in museums that are usually the Raouche Rock or Baalbek’s temples,”
Khoury said, referring to popular sites in Beirut and out in the country's
eastern Beqaa Valley, respectively. “In Beirut, you can see these houses on an
everyday basis when you’re walking there. You even see tourists taking pictures
of them. We created this line because we wanted to shed light on this
heritage.”A recent survey by the Lebanese government’s Directorate General of
Antiquities determined that the blast has caused damage to 640 heritage
buildings, with 60 facing the risk of imminent collapse. Khoury hopes that his
project will help to raise awareness for the plight of these heritage buildings
and prevent them being lost, or worse, demolished by developers eager to
“modernize” Beirut. This was already seen in 1990s, in the aftermath of the
Lebanese Civil War, when the joint-stock real estate company Solidere demolished
much of the capital’s battered central district to build flashy towers and
skyscrapers. Opponents of the multi-billion dollar company accuse it of
gentrifying the center of the capital, causing rent and property values to soar,
and ultimately leading to the displacement of the native working class and
poorer communities. “We wanted to do something like a gesture of hope that these
buildings can be rebuilt and preserved, rather than taken down and replaced by
skyscrapers,” said Khoury. “It is really important to us. That’s why we took on
this project in the first place. “If you look out our collections, we even left
the AC compressors sat on the balconies, with the mix of greenery and trees and
wires passing in front of these houses,” he added. “It reflects the cultural mix
of the city itself. It’s really important to preserve this, because they are
part of our identity and, to the Beirutis and the people of Lebanon, they
represent part of the city.”
A Tripartite Arrangement in Lebanon under Iranian
Conditions
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al Awsat/October, 04/2020
I am not sure about the percentage of those who were optimistic of the French
initiative’s success in saving Lebanon from collapse; but I am sure that those
who were, did not know much about why it has failed.
It was interesting when Prime Minister designate Dr. Mustafa Adib announced, in
the Baabda Presidential Palace at a Beirut suburb, that he was giving up his
attempts of forming a new cabinet. Indeed, what happened then was similar to the
‘Iraqi Experience’ in the post Adel Abdul Mahdi cabinet.
In other words, what we saw then in Lebanon, and what we may continue to see
until early November, is Iran’s maneuvering and playing for time as part of its
long term strategy of gaining full control in Lebanon.
In Iraq, the maneuvers of Iran and its proxies ‘discarded’ two Prime Minister
designates, Mohammed Tawfic Allawi and Adnan Al-Zurfi, before acquiescing to the
appointment of Mustafa Al Kadhimi, whom Tehran regards too close to Washington.
While in Lebanon, where Iran also enjoys almost full military and political
control, Tehran’s pressure has managed to abort a high-powered French
intervention; thus preventing a transitional political modus vivendi.
The most significant thing about this modus Vivendi is that it would lead to a
‘re-foundation conference’. This would be a ‘stopover’ from which Iran - and its
Lebanese sectarian base - hopes to move forward from to killing of the ‘Taif
Accords’; and later, go for a transitional ‘tri-partite’ Shiite-Sunni-Christian
power-sharing deal that does not stipulate the disarming of Hezbollah. On the
contrary, it would cement the victory of Hezbollah’s military ascendancy, along
with all its political achievements, en route to full control.
Since 2003, Iran has treated Iraq as a satellite waiting to be fully
incorporated into its expanding sphere of influence. In addition to Tehran’s bet
on the numerical Shiite majority, several Iranian leaders have spoken openly of
Baghdad as the ‘historical capital’ of Iran. This, at least, was the case before
the popular uprisings against Iran and its Iraqi militias throughout the Shiite
heartlands of southern Iraq.
These uprisings, that raged all over southern Iraq, including the two holy
cities of Karbala and Najaf, have undermined the notion of the ‘purely sectarian
nature’ of the Iraqi situation. This is the notion that has allowed pro-Iran
leaders, like Nuri Al-Maliki to raise, exploit the ISIS issue in order to
maintain the Sunni-Shiite sectarian divide. This blatant and divisive sectarian
policy was ruthlessly adopted and implemented (by Iran) with full collusion of
Iraqi politicians in Baghdad. In fact, it succeeded for a long time in silencing
nationalist Shiites by blackmailing them with the ISIS threat; especially, after
the latter’s atrocities in Mosul, Sinjar and the towns and villages of the
Niveneh plain.
This policy was carefully designed to divert the attention of nationalist Iraqi
Shiites away from their daily livelihood issues and demands, weaken their
patriotic loyalty to a free, sovereign and independent Iraq, and push them to
shun their inclusive Arab identity which brings together Arab Sunnis and
Shiites.
In southern Iraq, as well as in Baghdad, the uprisings have proven the fragility
of the intentional sectarian policy that is the core of Iran’s strategy of
‘divide and rule’. Subsequently, shaking the strategy of full control through
militias created, armed and trained by the IRGC (Iran’s Revolutionary Guards),
and forced on the Iraqis as a ‘legitimate’ player within their state structure.
What has been unfolding in Lebanon since last October’s popular uprising is
almost a carbon copy of the above. The only difference, however, is that
Hezbollah is not yet integrated within the Lebanese political and military state
structure; although its military apparatus has been legalized thanks to the
‘innovation’ of ‘the people, the army and the resistance formula’ forced on the
Lebanese by Hezbollah’s arms.
On the other hand, although Hezbollah is now a Lebanese reality, and possesses
its own security, financial, health, educational, social services and
communications institutions -functioning parallel to and independent from the
Lebanese state institutions -, it still has its own share of the afore-mentioned
institutions.
In other words, this militia simultaneously shares the Lebanese state
institutions with other communities, but keeps its own ‘private state’, which is
actually richer and more powerful than the Lebanese state.
Such a situation creates serious problems that complicate Arab and international
approaches intended to deal with Lebanon’s rapidly deteriorating conditions.
The Arab world acknowledges the fact that Lebanon is now a ‘hostage’ of
Hezbollah; thus, any aid given to the disabled Lebanese state is surely going to
end up in Hezbollah’s coffers, or put at its disposal.
As for the European countries, namely France – Lebanon’s former mandatory power
– they are also well aware of the reality, but still see a chance of doing
something that would save Lebanon from impending demise. These countries, led by
France, have so far regarded Hezbollah as a ‘Lebanese’ constituent that is a
‘legitimate representative’ of its sectarian community; hence, they must engage
and agree with. Furthermore, these countries have continued to oppose
Washington’s policies against Iran, since President Donald Trump rejected the
JCPOA, and kept up the sanctions.
The conflicting US-European stances towards Iran have, understandably, given it
enough breathing space, and subsequently allowed Hezbollah to further tighten
its grip on Lebanon. Thanks to this tightening grip, the pro-Iran militia has
been able to stage its coup against the ‘French initiative’, and undermine its
idea of a government of non-partisan technocrats.
Finally, there is Washington.
From the outside, the American position looks tough and clearcut in defining
Hezbollah. It regards it as a ‘terrorist organization’ controlled by Iran, a
source of political instability inside Lebanon, and a lynchpin of terrorism
throughout the Middle East.
However, Washington’s anti-Hezbollah actions have gone no further than economic
sanctions. The problem here is that these sanctions are much more harmful and
debilitating to the already disabled Lebanon than to the financially
self-sufficient Hezbollah.
Moreover, Washington is now going through the countdown of its Presidential and
Legislative elections; which makes any military action - whether against Iran or
its Lebanese militia - quite unlikely. In the meantime, Iran with its mastery of
blackmail and playing for time, is gambling on a change in Washington that would
return its US ‘lobby’ to the White House, and regain control of America’s
portfolio of Iran and its Middle East puppets.
This is the living example of the patient long-term strategy of a skillful
carpet weaver!
Lebanon-Israel talks will mark another win for Donald
Trump
Raghida Dergham/The National/October 03/2020
Sanctions are forcing Beirut to the table in another blow to Iran.
Whatever be the outcome of the US presidential election in November, credit must
be given where credit is due. And it would be fair to say that, for the Middle
East, the current incumbent Donald Trump has been consequential as an American
leader. In fact, it would not be inaccurate to suggest that he has managed to
bring about a radical change in the political landscape of the region – with one
of the biggest beneficiaries of Mr Trump’s diplomatic efforts being Israel.
The ink is not yet dry on the Abraham accords, recently signed by the UAE and
Bahrain with Israel, but progress is already being made in Israel-Lebanon
relations. The surprise announcement of the start of the first civilian
negotiations regarding the demarcation of land and maritime borders – brokered
by the US and overseen by the United Nations – may only be receiving fleeting
coverage from American media outlets. But it is a major achievement for the
Trump administration.
The President will, no doubt, focus on what Israel stands to gain from having
positive relations with its neighbours, in order to please the Jewish and
pro-Israeli sections of America’s electorate. But the positive outcome of talks
with Israel is just as important for Lebanon’s future, because it gives Beirut
the option of hedging its relations with Iran. The influence of Tehran, lest we
forget, is deeply entrenched in Lebanese politics – not least because its proxy
Hezbollah doubles up as a powerful political party and militia inside the tiny
Arab country.
The real threat of sanctions, which the Trump administration often effectively
wields, has played a key role in Lebanon’s decision to talk to Israel, which is
both a neighbour and an adversary.
The so-called “Shiite Duo” of Lebanese politics – Hezbollah and the Amal
Movement – had long refused to demarcate the country’s borders with Israel. The
reason for this being that they had sought to avoid doing the same with their
other neighbour, Syria, with a view to remain coupled with the powers that be in
Damascus. Iran and Hezbollah have been determined to keep the Lebanese-Syrian
border wide open to allow for the flow of weapons, fighters, narcotics and cash
unhindered, and to maintain the subjugation of Lebanon and its people.
Sanctions, however, have shaken the ground beneath the feet of those Lebanese
leaders allied to Hezbollah and Amal.
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who leads Amal, agreed to hold talks with Israel
only after the Trump administration slapped sanctions on one of his closest
associates, former finance minister Ali Hassan Khalil. Likewise, the tone of
Gebran Bassil, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement and son-in-law of President
Michel Aoun, changed drastically after Youssef Fenianos, the former transport
minister, was similarly sanctioned by Washington. Even Saad Hariri, the former
prime minister, and his Future Movement party may avoid striking a deal with
Hezbollah in the future, for fear of such retribution.
The threat of US sanctions loom large not just for Lebanese politicians,
however. Many Syrian and Iranian leaders are nervous as well, and possibly
counting down to US Election Day. But they must realise that whether it is
Republicans or Democrats who will run Washington over the next four years, there
is a consensus in American politics over how best to deal with Tehran and its
proxies, be it Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Assad regime in Syria.
I got a sense of this consensus during a recent conversation with Joel Rayburn,
the US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Levant Affairs, and James Jeffrey, the US
Special Representative for Syria Engagement.
“Whether it's in Syria, whether it's in Lebanon, or elsewhere, we have a charge
from the leaders of the administration, and we have a charge from Congress to
implement our sanctions authorities – and we're on a path to do that,” Mr
Rayburn told me. He added that it was a strategy that also had the backing of
the international community at large. Indeed, the West has grown tired of
extremists and the adverse impact they are having across Europe and North
America.
This is precisely why the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act has been such an
effective tool in punishing those wrongdoers who have the backing of the Assad
regime and have profited from the ongoing civil war in that country – regardless
of nationality. According to Mr Jeffrey, the Trump administration has “full
authority and every intention” to implement the act.
“If you, wherever you are in the world, are supporting this criminal regime,
we're coming after you,” he added. “There is such a rich target list of Syrian
officials who have done so much to deserve sanctions, that we're still working
our way through them. But people need to be patient, we're going to take them
down sooner or later.”
Mr Jeffrey also claimed that the relative calm in Syria at the moment is the
result of the sanctions. “[Bashar Al] Assad's not taking any more territory,
[and] he's going to have to deal sooner or later.”
However, it is clear that Iran continues its attempts to push back against
American presence in the region, notably in Iraq, where its proxies are
constantly attacking the US embassy and personnel in Baghdad. Even as Iran
struggles under the grip of a sanctions regime, its strategy in the Middle East
is to depend even more on its proxies to create unrest and instability.
As Election Day nears, there is the potential for escalation, as both sides
refuse to concede an inch to the other.
*Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 04-05/2020
Pope: Market capitalism has failed in pandemic, needs
reform
Associated Press/Sunday, 4 October, 2020
ROME: #Pope Francis says the coronavirus pandemic has proven that the “magic
theories” of market capitalism have failed and that the world needs a new type
of politics that promotes dialogue and solidarity and rejects war at all costs.
Francis on Sunday laid out his vision for a post-COVID world by uniting the core
elements of his social teachings into a new encyclical aimed at inspiring a
revived sense of the human family. “Fratelli Tutti” (Brothers All) was released
on the feast day of his namesake, the peace-loving St. Francis of Assisi.
The document draws its inspiration from the teachings of St. Francis and the
pope’s previous preaching on the injustices of the global economy and its
destruction of the planet and pairs them with his call for greater human
solidarity to confront the “dark clouds over a closed world.”In the encyclical,
Francis rejected even the Catholic Church’s own doctrine justifying war as a
means of legitimate defense, saying it had been too broadly applied over the
centuries and was no longer viable. “It is very difficult nowadays to invoke the
rational criteria elaborated in earlier centuries to speak of the possibility of
a ‘just war,’” Francis wrote in the most controversial new element of the
encyclical. Francis had started writing the encyclical, the third of his
pontificate, before the coronavirus struck and its bleak diagnosis of a human
family falling apart goes far beyond the problems posed by the outbreak. He said
the pandemic, however, had confirmed his belief that current political and
economic institutions must be reformed to address the legitimate needs of the
people most harmed by the coronavirus.
“Aside from the differing ways that various countries responded to the crisis,
their inability to work together became quite evident,” Francis wrote. “Anyone
who thinks that the only lesson to be learned was the need to improve what we
were already doing, or to refine existing systems and regulations, is denying
reality.” He cited the grave loss of millions of jobs as a result of the virus
as evidence of the need for politicians to listen to popular movements, unions
and marginalized groups and to craft more just social and economic policies.
“The fragility of world systems in the face of the pandemic has demonstrated
that not everything can be resolved by market freedom,” he wrote. “It is
imperative to have a proactive economic policy directed at ‘promoting an economy
that favours productive diversity and business creativity’ and makes it possible
for jobs to be created, and not cut.” He denounced populist politics that seek
to demonize and isolate, and called for a “culture of encounter” that promotes
dialogue, solidarity and a sincere effort at working for the common good.
As an outgrowth of that, Francis rejected the concept of an absolute right to
property for individuals, stressing instead the “social purpose” and common good
that must come from sharing the Earth’s resources. He repeated his criticism of
the “perverse” global economic system, which he said consistently keeps the poor
on the margins while enriching the few — an argument he made most fully in his
2015 landmark environmental encyclical “Laudato Sii” (Praised Be). Francis also
rejected “trickle-down” economic theory as he did in the first major mission
statement of his papacy, the 2013 Evangelii Gaudium, (The Joy of the Gospel),
saying it simply doesn’t achieve what it claims.“Neo-liberalism simply
reproduces itself by resorting to magic theories of ‘spillover’ or ‘trickle’ —
without using the name — as the only solution to societal problems,” he wrote.
“There is little appreciation of the fact that the alleged ‘spillover’ does not
resolve the inequality that gives rise to new forms of violence threatening the
fabric of society.”
Francis’ English-language biographer, Austen Ivereigh, said with its two key
predecessors, the new encyclical amounts to the final part of a triptych of
papal teachings and may well be the last of the pontificate. “There is little
doubt that these three documents ... will be considered the teaching backbone of
the Francis era,” Ivereigh wrote in Commonweal magazine. Francis made clear the
text had wide circulation, printing the encyclical in the Vatican newspaper
L’Osservatore Romano and distributing it free in St. Peter’s Square on Sunday to
mark the resumption of printed editions following a hiatus during the COVID-19
lockdown. Much of the new encyclical repeats Francis’ well-known preaching about
the need to welcome and value migrants and his rejection of the nationalistic,
isolationist policies of many of today’s political leaders.
He dedicated an entire chapter to the parable of the Good Samaritan, saying its
lesson of charity, kindness and looking out for strangers was “the basic
decision we need to make in order to rebuild our wounded world.”“That a theme so
ancient is spoken with such urgency now is because Pope Francis fears a
detachment from the view that we are all really responsible for all, all related
to all, all entitled to a just share of what has been given for the good of
all,” said Anna Rowlands, professor of Catholic social thought at Britain’s
University of Durham, who was on hand to present the encyclical Sunday at the
Vatican.
Francis enshrined in the encyclical his previous rejection of both the nuclear
arms race and the death penalty, which he said was “inadmissible” in all cases.
Francis’ call for greater “human fraternity,” particularly to promote peace, is
derived from his 2019 joint appeal with the grand imam of Egypt’s Al-Azhar, the
revered 1,000-year-old seat of Sunni Islam. Their “Human Fraternity” document
established the relationship between Catholics and Muslims as brothers, with a
common mission to promote peace. The fact the he has now integrated that
Catholic-Muslim document into an encyclical is significant, given Francis’
conservative critics had already blasted the “Human Fraternity” document as
heretical, given it stated that God had willed the “pluralism and diversity of
religions.”Vatican encyclicals are the most authoritative form of papal teaching
and they traditionally take their titles from the first two words of the
document. In this case, “Fratelli Tutti” is a quote from the “Admonitions,” the
guidelines penned by St. Francis in the 13th century.
The title of the encyclical had sparked controversy in the English-speaking
world, with critics noting that a straight translation of the word “fratelli”
(brothers) excludes women. The Vatican has insisted that the plural form of the
word “fratelli” is gender-inclusive. Francis’ decision to sign the document in
Assisi, where he travelled on Saturday, and release it on the saint’s feast day
is yet further evidence of the outsized influence St. Francis has had on the
papacy of the Jesuit pope. Francis is the first pope to name himself after the
mendicant friar, who renounced a wealthy, dissolute lifestyle to embrace a life
of poverty and service to the poor.
Coronavirus: US President Donald Trump leaves Walter Reed
military hospital
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Monday 05 October
2020
US President Donald Trump said he will leave Walter Reed National Military
Medical Center very soon to meet with supporters outside the hospital after
receiving treatment for coronavirus, according to a tweet from the president.
What happens if a candidate for president dies?
Associated Press/Sunday, 4 October, 2020
WASHINGTON: It’s a month before Election Day and President #Donald Trump is in
the hospital, infected with a virus that has killed more than 209,000 Americans.
What happens in the election — already well underway — should his condition take
a turn for the worse? If the president is unable to serve, through illness or
death, the 25th Amendment makes clear the powers of the presidency transfer to
Vice President Mike Pence until the president regains the ability to perform his
duties. But what happens if a candidate for president dies before Election Day?
Or right after? What happens if the winning candidate dies before Inauguration
Day?
It’s never happened in a country with a long transition between Election Day at
the start of November and the start of a president’s new term on Jan. 20. The
Constitution, as well as state and federal election laws, would help guide the
country through the process. But with no precedent, the outcome is far from
certain. The House of Representatives has the final say on who wins the
presidency. Before the House might have to take charge, there are roles for
political parties, state legislatures, the Electoral College, the courts and,
most importantly, voters. Here are some questions and answers about what might
happen if a presidential candidate dies, before or after the election:
CAN POLITICAL PARTIES REPLACE A CANDIDATE WHO DIES?
Yes, but not this close to Election Day. Nearly 63 million ballots have already
been sent to voters, with nearly 3 million votes already cast. The deadline for
candidates to withdraw has passed in all but two states — South Carolina and
Connecticut — and their deadlines are a few days away. The date of the election
is set by federal law — the Tuesday after the first Monday in November — which
falls this year on Nov. 3. Only Congress can change the date of the election.
“It would be impossible to change ballots at this time without delaying the
election and starting the voting process over again,” said Richard Hasen, a law
professor at the University of California–Irvine School of Law. “I don’t think
Congress is going to do that.” But it’s important to remember that in a
presidential election, voters aren’t actually casting ballots for candidates.
Instead, they are voting for slates of electors who will pick the president and
vice president as members of the Electoral College. To win the presidency, a
candidate must win the backing of a majority of electors — 270 — in the
Electoral College. In modern U.S. elections, the meeting of the Electoral
College is essentially a ceremonial confirmation of the choice made by voters.
This year, it will take place on Dec. 14. But if the winning candidate is no
longer alive, it would be anything but routine.“The question is, Who would the
electors support?” said Richard Pildes, a constitutional law professor at New
York University.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THE WINNING PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE DIES AFTER THE ELECTION?
The 20th Amendment says the term of the current president and vice president
ends at noon on Jan. 20. There is no provision to extend it. The amendment also
says if the president-elect dies, the vice president-elect shall be sworn in as
president at the start of the new term. However, the winning candidate doesn’t
become president-elect until a joint session of Congress counts the votes from
the Electoral College and declares a winner, Pildes said. By law, Congress is
scheduled to formally receive the votes from the Electoral College on Jan. 6.
The new Congress, which will be elected in November and sworn into office on
Jan. 3, will preside.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THE WINNING CANDIDATE DIES BEFORE CONGRESS DECLARES A WINNER?
“That’s the worst, most confusing time,” said John Fortier, director of
governmental studies at the Bipartisan Policy Center. “They are going to have to
figure out what to do with (Electoral College) votes cast for a candidate who
has died.” If the winning candidate dies before the Electoral College meets, the
electors could coalesce around a replacement candidate recommended by the party,
perhaps the vice presidential candidate. “For the most part, these people are
picked because they are loyal party people,” Fortier said. “You could have a few
stray here or there, but they are not rebels.” A party’s electors would have an
incentive to coalesce around one candidate, he said, because they wouldn’t want
to risk throwing the election to the other party. But there is no guarantee they
would all agree on a replacement candidate. Some states have laws that require
electors to vote for the presidential candidate who won the statewide vote;
other states could quickly pass laws governing the electors in the event that a
candidate dies. “The party can say what the party wants, but the states would
decide what to do with those electors,” Hasen said.
The Supreme Court ruled unanimously in July that states may require electors to
support the candidate picked by voters in the election. However, the court left
open what would happen if the candidate dies. “Nothing in this opinion should be
taken to permit the states to bind electors to a deceased candidate,” Justice
Elena Kagan wrote in a footnote to her majority opinion. If this happens, expect
litigation.
WHAT IS THE ROLE OF CONGRESS?
The 12th Amendment to the Constitution gives Congress the final say on who is
elected president and vice president. Congress decides whether to accept or
reject slates of electors from the Electoral College and to determine whether a
candidate has won the required 270 electoral votes to become president.
As a check on this power, both the House and Senate must agree to reject a slate
of electors. If the two chambers don’t agree, the electors get counted under
federal law, said Michael Morley, an assistant law professor at Florida State
University. If no candidate reaches 270 electoral votes, the House chooses the
president and the Senate chooses the vice president, in a process spelled out in
the Constitution. In the House, each state delegation gets one vote for
president, and they must choose among the three candidates who received the most
votes in the Electoral College. Currently, Republicans have a majority in 26
state delegations, but the numbers could change after the November elections and
a new Congress takes office. The Senate would choose the vice president by a
simple majority vote. Election experts said they wouldn’t expect the courts to
play a role at this point because the Constitution clearly grants Congress the
authority to resolve a disputed election for president. The Supreme Court did
effectively decide the 2000 presidential election in favor of Republican George
W. Bush by ending the recount in Florida. But the court’s ruling came before the
Electoral College votes were presented to Congress. “It is really in Congress’
hands after the electors have voted,” Fortier said.
HAS CONGRESS EVER HAD TO DECIDE THE OUTCOME?
Congress has decided three presidential elections, but it’s been almost 150
years, according to a history of the House published by the chamber. In 1800,
Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr tied in the Electoral College vote, with 73
electors apiece. After six days of debate and 36 ballots, the House chose
Jefferson as the nation’s third president. In 1824, Andrew Jackson won a a
plurality of the popular vote and the most Electoral College votes. But he
failed to reach a majority in a four-candidate race, and the House chose one of
his opponents, John Quincy Adams, to become the nation’s sixth president.
Jackson won the presidency four years later. Congress also helped choose the
president following the election in 1876 between Republican Rutherford B. Hayes
and Democrat Samuel Tilden. Tilden won the popular vote and the electoral count.
But Republicans challenged the results in three Southern states, which had
submitted slates of electors for both candidates, according to the House
history.
To resolve the dispute, Congress set up a bipartisan commission of House
members, senators and Supreme Court justices. After cutting a deal to remove
federal troops from the South, ending Reconstruction following the Civil War,
the commission voted along party lines to award the presidency to Hayes.
Trump Says 'Real Test' Lies ahead in his COVID-19 Fight
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 4 October, 2020
President Donald Trump said from his hospital room that the next few days will
be the "real test" of his treatment for COVID-19, after a series of
contradictory messages from the White House caused widespread confusion about
his condition. In a four-minute video posted on Twitter on Saturday from his
hospital suite at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, a tired-looking
Trump said he was feeling "much better." "Over the next period of a few days, I
guess that's the real test, so we'll be seeing what happens over those next
couple of days," Trump said into the camera, seated in front of an American flag
and wearing a jacket and open-necked shirt. Trump's illness has upended the
campaign ahead of the Nov. 3 presidential election and cast a spotlight on the
president's handling of the pandemic. The Republican president is trailing
Democratic rival Joe Biden in opinion polls. Differing assessments of Trump's
health from administration officials earlier on Saturday left it unclear how ill
the president had become since he tested positive for the coronavirus on
Thursday night. A White House team of doctors said on Saturday morning Trump's
condition was improving and that he was already talking about returning to the
White House. Within minutes, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows gave
reporters a less rosy assessment, saying, "The president's vitals over the last
24 hours were very concerning and the next 48 hours will be critical in terms of
his care. We're still not on a clear path to a full recovery."Meadows, whose
initial comments were delivered on condition that he not be identified, altered
his tone hours later, telling Reuters that Trump was doing "very well" and that
"doctors are very pleased with his vital signs."Meadows did not clarify the
discrepancy in his comments. A Trump adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity
said the president was not happy to learn of Meadows' initial remarks.
Administration officials have described the move to Walter Reed as precautionary
and said Trump would stay for several days. Another source who was briefed on
Trump's condition said the president was given supplemental oxygen before he
went to the hospital. The decision to hospitalize Trump came after he had
experienced difficulty breathing and his oxygen level dropped, according to a
source familiar with the situation. White House doctor Sean P. Conley told
reporters outside the hospital on Saturday that Trump had not had trouble
breathing, and was not given oxygen at Walter Reed. "The team and I are
extremely happy with the progress the president has made," Conley said. He
declined to give a timetable for Trump's possible release from the hospital, and
later had to issue a statement saying he misspoke after appearing to suggest
Trump had been diagnosed as early as Wednesday. In a statement on Saturday
evening, Conley said the president was "not yet out of the woods" but his team
remained cautiously optimistic.
"Today's spectacle - doctors saying one thing, White House sources saying
another thing, and both later amending their statements - only reinforces the
credibility problems of this administration," said Kyle Kondik, a political
analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
Campaign reshaped
With Trump off the campaign trail indefinitely, his campaign announced
"Operation MAGA," based on his slogan "Make America Great Again," which will see
high-profile allies including Vice President Mike Pence and Trump's elder sons,
Donald Jr. and Eric, take over in-person campaigning this week. Pence, who
tested negative on Friday, is scheduled to debate Democratic vice presidential
nominee Kamala Harris on Wednesday. Biden, who largely avoided direct criticism
of Trump during a campaign trip to Michigan on Friday, took a more aggressive
tone on Saturday while speaking to a transit workers' union, even as he wished
the president well. "I'm in a little bit of a spot here, because I don't want to
be attacking the president and the first lady now," Biden said, adding he hoped
Trump and his wife Melania, who also has the illness, make a full recovery.
But he quickly turned to Trump's response to the pandemic, calling it
"unconscionable" and blasting Trump's comment in an interview this summer that
"it is what it is" when asked about the death toll. "I find this one of the most
despicable things that I've encountered in my whole career," Biden said. Trump
has repeatedly played down the threat of the coronavirus pandemic, even as it
has killed more than 208,000 Americans and hammered the US economy.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who himself was seriously ill with
COVID-19 earlier this year, said on Sunday he was sure Trump would be fine.
"He's got the best possible care... He just needs, I mean, the most important
thing to do is to follow his doctors' advice, he's got superb medical advice,"
Johnson said during an interview on BBC television. Biden, who tested negative
on Friday, told reporters he would next be tested on Sunday. His campaign will
begin releasing the results of each test, a spokesman said. Conley said Trump
had received the first two doses of a five-day course of Remdesivir, an
intravenous antiviral drug sold by Gilead Sciences Inc that has been shown to
shorten hospital stays. He is also taking an experimental treatment, Regeneron's
REGN-COV2, as well as zinc, Vitamin D, famotidine, melatonin and aspirin, Conley
has said. A number of other prominent Republicans have also tested positive for
coronavirus since Trump's announcement, including Republican senators Mike Lee,
Thom Tillis and Ron Johnson, former White House senior adviser Kellyanne Conway
and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
Pompeo to Cut Short Asia Visit amid Trump Hospitalization
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 4 October, 2020
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will cut short his trip to Asia this week, a
department spokeswoman said Saturday, visiting Japan but skipping planned stops
to South Korea and Mongolia. The schedule change comes as President Donald Trump
is hospitalized near Washington after testing positive for Covid-19. The US top
diplomat will be in Tokyo from Sunday to Tuesday, spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus
said in a statement, where he will meet with foreign ministers of Australia,
India and Japan. "Secretary Pompeo expects to be traveling to Asia again in
October and will work to reschedule visits on that trip, that is now just a few
weeks off," she said, without mentioning Trump's illness. However, Pompeo
touched on the topic Friday after reporters asked if Trump's health will change
his schedule. "We're still planning on making the trips, but we're going to take
a look at them," he responded. "We'll see which one -- see which or some parts
of those trips make sense and which may not, and we'll continue to on an
hour-by-hour basis take a look at it."Pompeo had originally been scheduled to
visit Ulaanbaatar on Wednesday and stop in Seoul from Wednesday to Thursday, to
meet with senior officials.
Armenian Yazidis join fight against Azerbaijan in
Nagorno-Karabakh
Lemma Shehadi,/Al Arabiya English/Sunday 04 October 2020
A group of Armenian Yazidi reservists have formed a military unit that will join
the frontline in Nagorno-Karabakh, as fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia
continues in the disputed territory. The group gathered on the premises of a
Yazidi temple outside the Armenian capital of Yerevan, as reservists
country-wide were mobilized after Armenia declared martial law the day the
fighting began on 27 September. The military unit is led by Rzgan Sarhangyan, a
veteran of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on the 1990s, and is composed of 50
soldiers aged between 18-55, activists told Al Arabiya English. Fighting between
Azerbaijan and Armenia began after Azerbaijan launched airstrikes over the
disputed territories of Nagorno-Karabakh. The breakaway region is part of
Azerbaijan, but it has been run by ethnic Armenians since 1994.
While the international community has called on both sides to end hostilities,
these appear to be escalating daily. The city of Stepanakert - the capital of
the Armenian-backed, self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh - was hit by shelling
overnight, with over 29 civilians killed and thousands displaced since the
clashes began. Yazidis are Armenia’s largest minority, numbering between
35,000-40,000 according to a 2011 census. Most of them live in Yerevan, and in
the western regions of the country. “The right to live in peace has come under
question,” said Sashik Sultanyan, of the Armenian NGO the Yezidi Centre for
Human Rights, “Yesterday drones flew above Yerevan. Armenian Yazidis are
fighting for their rights and their identity, it’s not just a war about land.”
But for many, the conflict has a symbolic significance, as Armenia accuses
Turkey of supplying weapons and mercenaries to Azerbaijan.
Armenian Yazidis fled persecution from the Ottoman Empire, and share the
country’s grievances with Turkey. Many view the fight against Azerbaijan as part
of the resistance against Turkish aggression. Azerbaijan has categorically
denied reports that Turkish-backed mercenaries are now fighting in
Nagorno-Karabakh. But these reports further add to the perception that Yazidis
are fighting a historic battle to save their community. “They are fighting
terrorists who also killed Yazidis in Syria,” added Sultanyan, reflecting a
widely-held belief that these mercenaries were involved in IS attacks on Yazidis
in Syria and Iraq. As thousands sign up to join the frontline, the mobilizations
could take their toll on Armenia’s Yazidi population. Many of Armenia’s Yazidi
villages are plagued by mass migration caused by the country’s economic woes,
with more people now leaving to fight. A photo shared on social media, showed
the mother of two Yazidi soldiers preparing to send her youngest son to the
frontline, having lost an older son to previous conflicts. “It is too early to
say what the impact will be, we don’t know how long this war will last,” said
Sultanyan. The mass conscription has also fueled existing debates in Armenia
about the militarization of society. In late August, the Ministry of Defense
published a draft bill on the formation of a militia composed of up to 100,000
civilians, who would “participate in the armed defense of the Republic. Local
authorities have said on social media posts that they will only contact
reservists and volunteers on the basis of need.
Azerbaijan Says Armenian Forces Shell Second City of Ganja
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 4 October, 2020
Azerbaijan said on Sunday that Armenian armed forces had shelled its second city
of Ganja in a major new escalation of the conflict in the South Caucasus.
Armenia denied that it fired towards Azerbaijan, but the leader of
Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan, said his forces
had destroyed a military airbase located in Ganja. “Permanent military units
located in the large cities of Azerbaijan from now on become the targets of the
defense army,” said Karabakh leader Arayik Harutyunyan. The Azeri defense
ministry said the cities of Terter and Horadiz near the de-facto border with
Nagorno-Karabakh were under heavy shelling, while the breakaway region’s
military said its capital, Stepanakert, was under bombardment. The fighting
began a week ago and has surged to its worst level since the 1990s, when some
30,000 people were killed. The conflict risks dragging in other regional powers
such as Russia and Turkey and disrupting energy supplies via the South Caucasus,
where pipelines carry Azeri oil and gas to world markets.
Azerbaijan’s No. 2 city targeted in fighting with Armenia
Associated Press/Sunday, 4 October, 2020
BAKU: The fighting between #Armenian and #Azerbaijani forces continued on Sunday
over the separatist territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, with Azerbaijan’s
second-largest city coming under attack and Azerbaijan claiming to have seized a
town and several villages. The clashes erupted on Sept. 27 and have killed
dozens, marking the biggest escalation in the decades-old conflict over the
region, which lies within Azerbaijan but is controlled by local ethnic Armenian
forces backed by Armenia. Azerbaijani President Ilkham Aliyev tweeted on Sunday
that the country’s troops “liberated from occupation the city of Jabrayil and
several surrounding villages.” Nagorno-Karabakh’s officials rejected the claim
as untrue, saying the territory’s army “is controlling the situation in all
directions.”Azerbaijani officials said earlier Sunday that Armenian forces
attacked Ganja, the country’s second-largest city. Hikmet Hajiyev, Aliyev’s aide
to the Azerbaijani president, tweeted a video depicting damaged buildings, and
called it the result of “Armenia’s massive missile attacks against dense
residential areas” in Ganja. It wasn’t immediately possible to verify the
authenticity of the video. Hajiyev said in another tweet that attacks on Ganja
and other areas in Azerbaijan were launched “from territory of
Armenia.”Armenia’s Defense Ministry said that “no fire of any kind is being
opened from the territory of Armenia in Azerbaijan’s direction.” But
Nagorno-Karabakh’s leader, Arayik Harutyunyan, said on Facebook that he ordered
“rocket attacks to neutralize military objects” in Ganja, but later told his
forces to stop firing to avoid civilian casualties. Azerbaijani officials denied
that any military objects had been hit, but said the attack caused damage to
civilian infrastructure. One civilian has been killed, and 32 others sustained
injuries, authorities said.
Ganja, home to several hundred thousand residents, is located roughly 100
kilometers (about 60 miles) north of Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh’s capital.
“Opening fire on the territory of Azerbaijan from the territory of Armenia is
clearly provocative and expands the zone of hostilities,” Azerbaijani Defense
Minister Zakir Hasanov said in a statement Sunday.
As the fighting resumed Sunday morning, Armenian officials accused Azerbaijan of
carrying out strikes on Stepanakert and targeting the civilian population there.
Nagorno-Karabakh’s leader Harutyunyan said that in response, his forces would
target “military facilities permanently located in major cities of Azerbaijan.”
In a statement issued later on Sunday, Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry rejected
accusations of targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure. Nagorno-Karabakh
officials have said nearly 200 servicemen on their side have died in the clashes
so far. Azerbaijani authorities haven’t given details on their military
casualties, but said 24 civilians were killed and 111 others were wounded.
Nagorno-Karabakh was a designated autonomous region within Azerbaijan during the
Soviet era. It claimed independence from Azerbaijan in 1991, about three months
before the Soviet Union’s collapse. A full-scale war that broke out in 1992
killed an estimated 30,000 people. By the time the war ended in 1994, Armenian
forces not only held Nagorno-Karabakh itself but substantial areas outside the
territory’s formal borders, including Jabrayil, the town Azerbaijan claimed to
have taken on Sunday.
The claim sparked hope among Azerbaijanis who fled Jabrayil in the 1990s and
have since wanted to return to their hometown. “The news about liberation of
Jabrayil is the happiest and the most desired news for me and my family,”
Zulfiya Amiraslanova, who said she and her family were forced to leave Jabrayil
in 1993 and are now living in the capital Baku, told The Associated Press. “We
have a comfortable life here, but me and my entire family, (my) relatives dream
about returning to our hometown,” 40-year-old Amiraslanova said. This week’s
fighting has prompted calls for a cease-fire from around the world. On Thursday,
leaders of Russia, France and the United States — co-chairs of the so-called
Minsk Group, which was set up by the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe in 1992 to resolve the conflict — issued a joint statement calling for
an immediate cease-fire and “resuming substantive negotiations ... under the
auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs.”Azerbaijani President Aliyev said
that Armenia’s withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh is the sole condition to end the
fighting. Armenian officials allege that Turkey is involved in the conflict and
is sending fighters from Syria to the region. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol
Pashinian said earlier this week that “a cease-fire can be established only if
Turkey is removed from the South Caucasus.”Ankara has denied sending arms or
foreign fighters, while publicly siding with Azerbaijan in the dispute. On
Sunday, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry condemned the attack on Ganja, saying it was
proof of Armenia’s disregard for the law. Ankara accused Armenia of attacking
civilian residential areas, and claimed that Armenia could commit crimes against
humanity. “Armenia is the biggest barrier to peace and stability in the region,”
the ministry said. In Istanbul, hundreds of Azeri Turks gathered to support
Azerbaijan on Sunday, waving Turkish and Azerbaijani flags and singing their
national anthems.
Erdogan Hints at New Military Operation in Northern Syria
Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday,
4 October, 2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinted that his country could
launch a new military operation in northern Syria to cleanse the region of
“terrorists” if pledges are not fulfilled, amid renewed tensions between Ankara
and Moscow.
Erdogan was referring to two agreements reached between Turkey, the United
States and Russia on removing the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) from
the Turkish border, under which Ankara halted a military operation it had
launched in Syria in October 2019.
Turkey “will be taking resolute steps until absolute stability is achieved along
its southern borders,” stressed Erdogan, adding that Ankara thwarted attempts to
establish a “terror corridor” along its borders and showed “our Syrian brothers
and sisters that they are not alone.”
Speaking during a video conference at the inauguration of Reyhanli Dam in Hatay,
he vowed that Ankara will never accept any action that may lead to another
humanitarian tragedy in Syria’s Idlib province.
In recent weeks, the Syrian regime and Russia have escalated attacks against the
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other extremists groups in southern, northern and
western parts of Idlib, which led to a new wave of displacement towards the
Turkish border. Erdogan had previously announced that Turkey remains committed
to the memorandum of understanding it reached with Russia on Idlib in March. He
warned, however, that Ankara will not tolerate the Syrian regime’s aggression.
He cautioned the regime that Damascus would suffer "heavy losses" if it
persisted in violating the ceasefire, stressing that Turkey would not allow any
"dark groups" in the region to breach it either. Tensions have been rising
between Turkey and Russia after a consultative military meeting held in Ankara
in September failed to discuss Idlib. Sources from both sides said that the
officials did not agree on the points discussed during the meeting, which was
described by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu as “unfruitful.”Russia
had asked Turkey to reduce the number of military points in northwestern Syria
or the number of forces deployed there, and withdraw heavy weapons at points
under the control of the Syrian regime. Ankara rejected the request, and Russia
declined Turkey’s demand to hand over the cities of Manbij and Tal Rifaat. Since
the meeting, Russia has stopped carrying out joint patrols with Turkey on the
Aleppo-Latakia International Road (M4), in implementation of the March 5
agreement.
Thousands of Israelis Rally Against PM Despite Lockdown
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 4 October, 2020
Tens of thousands of Israelis demonstrated in hundreds of locations across
Israel against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, pressing ahead with their
campaign against the Israeli leader on Saturday night after the government
banned large, centralized demonstrations as part of a new coronavirus lockdown.
The protesters have been gathering outside Netanyahu’s official residence in
Jerusalem each week for over three months, demanding his resignation. After
imposing a second nationwide lockdown to halt a raging coronavirus outbreak, the
government last week passed a rule allowing people to protest only within one
kilometer (0.6 miles) of their home. While Netanyahu has said the restrictions
are driven by safety concerns, the protesters accuse him of tightening the
lockdown to muzzle their movement, The Associated Press reported. In line with
the new rules, organizers said that over 1,000 protests were held across the
country. In one of the largest rallies, hundreds of people gathered in Tel
Aviv’s central Habima Square, blowing on horns, pounding drums and chanting
anti-government slogans. “Dictatorship, sponsored by corona,” said one poster.
Dozens of police officers stood behind metal barriers, and several people were
arrested. Meanwhile, about 200 people gathered outside Netanyahu’s Jerusalem
residence. The protesters said Netanyahu should not serve as prime minister when
he is on trial on corruption charges and accuse him of bungling the country’s
coronavirus crisis, which has ravaged the economy. Many of the protesters are
young Israelis who have lost their jobs. Israeli media reported attacks on
protesters in several locations, including an alleged assault that left a
57-year old woman with a bloody face in Tel Aviv. Defense Minister Benny Gantz,
Netanyahu’s rival and governing partner, called such attacks “unthinkable” and
called on police to catch the perpetrators. “Protests that are held in line with
health regulations are legitimate and vital to democracy,” he tweeted. Israel
now reports over 7,000 infections a day and the nation of 9 million people has
more than 250,000 confirmed cases and over 1,600 deaths. Israel’s outbreak is
among the worst in the world on a per capita basis.
French rescuers search for 8 people missing after floods
Associated Press/October/04/2020
PARIS: French authorities deployed about 1,000 firefighters, four military
helicopters and troops Sunday to help search for at least eight people still
missing in a mountainous southeastern region after devastating floods that
killed two people in neighboring #Italy. #Floods washed away houses and
destroyed roads and bridges surrounding the city of Nice on the French Riviera
after almost a year’s average rainfall fell in less than 12 hours. Nice Mayor
Christian Estrosi said over 100 homes were destroyed or severely damaged.
#Rescuers on Sunday were also providing emergency assistance, including food and
water, to residents living in isolated villages.
The missing people include two firefighters whose vehicle was carried away by a
torrent when a road collapsed south of the village of Saint-Martin-Vesubie.
Authorities fear more victims as many families couldn’t reach out to relatives
due to cellphone services being down. French Prime Minister Jean Castex, who
flew over the area in a helicopter, expressed “grave concern” over the toll of
the flooding. About 10,500 homes were left without electricity on Sunday, French
energy company Enedis said. In Italy, a firefighter was killed during a rescue
operation in the mountainous northern region of Val d’Aosta. A search team also
found a body in the Piedmont region’s Vercelli province, where a man had been
swept away by floodwaters. Italian firefighters also rescued 25 people trapped
on the French side of a high mountain pass due to the flooding.
Virus spreads on panel handling Supreme Court nomination
Associated Press/October/04/2020
WASHINGTON: Two Republican members of the Senate Judiciary Committee have tested
positive for the coronavirus, raising questions about the timing of #Supreme
Court confirmation hearings for Judge #Amy Coney Barrett and whether additional
senators may have been exposed.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell declared the confirmation process was
going “full steam ahead.”
North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis and Utah Sen. Mike Lee both said Friday that
they had tested positive for the virus. Both had attended a ceremony for Barrett
at the White House on Sept. 25 with President Donald Trump, who announced Friday
that he had tested positive and was later hospitalized at Walter Reed National
Military Medical Center.Lee, who did not wear a mask at the White House event,
said he had “symptoms consistent with longtime allergies.” Tillis, who did wear
a mask during the public portion of the event, said he had “mild symptoms.” Both
said they would quarantine for 10 days — ending just before Barrett’s
confirmation hearings begin on Oct. 12.
The positive tests come as Senate #Republicans are pushing to quickly confirm
Barrett in the few weeks they have before the Nov. 3 election. There is little
cushion in the schedule set out by Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham
and McConnell, who want to put a third Trump nominee on the court immediately in
case they lose any of their power in the election. Democrats, many of whom have
been critical of Barrett, seized on the virus announcements to call for a delay
in the hearings.
“We now have two members of the Senate Judiciary Committee who have tested
positive for COVID, and there may be more,” tweeted Senate Democratic leader
Chuck Schumer. “I wish my colleagues well. It is irresponsible and dangerous to
move forward with a hearing, and there is absolutely no good reason to do
so.”Several other members of the Judiciary panel attended the White House
ceremony, including Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse,
Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo. Blackburn said she
tested negative after the event. Crapo said he “recently” had a negative test
and a spokeswoman said he would be getting another one as soon as it could be
arranged. A spokeswoman for Hawley said he was being tested Saturday, and the
senator tweeted later that his coronavirus test came back negative.
Sasse tested negative, but said in a statement that he would work remotely from
his home state and undergo further testing due to his “close interaction with
multiple infected individuals,” his office said. He said he planned to to return
to Washington in time for the confirmation hearing.
Graham was not at the White House on Saturday but sees Trump frequently. He said
Friday that he had taken a test after interacting with Lee and it was negative.
A spokeswoman for another GOP member of the committee, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, said
Saturday that he had also interacted with Lee and had also tested negative.
Still, Cruz’s office said he is remaining at home until the hearings out of an
abundance of caution.
Confirmation hearings for Barrett, who would replace the late Justice Ruth Bader
Ginsburg, are scheduled to last for four days. McConnell on Saturday announced
that he would seek to delay floor action for the next two weeks but that the
hearings would proceed. At an event in Kentucky on Friday, he said he thought
remote hearings could work if some senators couldn’t attend.
Graham also suggested the possibility of remote hearings, saying on Twitter that
“any senator who wants to participate virtually will be allowed to do so.” In a
statement Saturday, Graham said there would be “no change” in the hearings even
if Senate floor votes were delayed. It is not unusual for committees to meet
when there is no action on the floor. Senators cannot vote virtually, however,
so Republicans would need a full slate of committee members to approve the
nomination shortly after the hearings and all of their senators on the floor for
a final confirmation vote, which they hope will happen the last week of October.
After interacting with Sen. Lee, in consultation with the attending physician,
Sen. Cruz is remaining at home out of an abundance of caution. He feels healthy,
hasn’t exhibited any COVID-19 symptoms, and has tested negative. In accordance
with medical advice he will return to the Senate for the Supreme Court
nomination hearings.”Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., also announced Saturday that he
tested positive for the virus and would not return until he was cleared by his
doctor. He is not on the Judiciary panel, but his presence would likely be
needed for a floor vote. Tillis is in a competitive reelection race against
Democrat Cal Cunningham, and the two debated Thursday evening. On Twitter,
Cunningham said he wished Tillis a quick recovery and said he would also get
tested. Barrett, who was with Trump and many others on Saturday and met with
Lee, Tillis and other members of the Judiciary panel this week, tested negative,
the White House said Friday. It was confirmed that she had a mild case of COVID
earlier this year and has now recovered.
Trump, who has consistently downplayed the virus and often discouraged the use
of masks, was flown to Walter Reed on Friday evening after experiencing
symptoms. The president tweeted Saturday that he was “feeling well,” though
White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said the next 48 hours would be critical
in terms of his care.
US push for Arab-Israel ties divides Sudanese leaders
Associated Press/October/04/2020
CAIRO: #Sudan’s fragile interim government is sharply divided over normalizing
relations with #Israel, as it finds itself under intense pressure from the Trump
administration to become the third Arab country to do so in short order — after
the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Washington’s push for Sudan-Israel ties is
part of a campaign to score foreign policy achievements ahead of the U.S.
presidential election in November. Sudan seemed like a natural target for the
pressure campaign because of U.S. leverage — Khartoum’s desperate efforts to be
removed from a U.S. list of states sponsoring terrorism. Sudan can only get the
international loans and aid that are essential for reviving its battered economy
once that stain is removed. While Sudan’s transitional government has been
negotiating the terms of removing the country from the list for more than a
year, U.S. officials introduced the linkage to normalization with Israel more
recently. Top Sudanese military leaders, who govern jointly with civilian
technocrats in a Sovereign Council, have become increasingly vocal in their
support for normalization with Israel as part of a quick deal with Washington
ahead of the U.S. election.
“Now, whether we like it or not, the removal (of Sudan from the terror list) is
tied to (normalization) with Israel,” the deputy head of the council, Gen.
Mohammed Dagalo, told a local television station on Friday. “We need Israel ...
Israel is a developed country and the whole world is working with it,” he said.
“We will have benefits from such relations ... We hope all look at Sudan’s
interests.” Such comments would have been unthinkable until recently in a
country where public hostility toward Israel remains strong. The top civilian
official in the coalition, Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, has argued that the
transitional government does not have the mandate to decide on foreign policy
issues of this magnitude.
When U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Sudan last month, Hamdok urged
him to move forward with removing Sudan from the list of state sponsors of
terrorism and not link it to recognizing Israel. “It needs a deep discussion
within our society,” Hamdok told reporters earlier this week. Several Sudanese
officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized
to brief the media, said civilian leaders prefer to wait with any deal until
after the U.S. election. The officials said military leaders seek a quick
U.S.-Sudan deal, including normalization with Israel, in exchange for an aid
package. The officials said the military fears incentives being offered now
could be withdrawn after the U.S. election. One sticking point is the size of
future aid to Sudan. A meeting in Abu Dhabi last month — attended by Sudanese,
U.S. and Emirati officials — ended without agreement. Less than $1 billion in
cash was being offered, mostly to be paid by the Emirates, said a Sudanese
official who took part in the meetings. The Sudanese team, had asked for $3
billion to help rescue Sudan’s economy.
Dagalo, the military official, tweeted Friday, after meeting with the U.S. envoy
to Sudan, Donald Booth, in South Sudan that he received a promise to remove
Sudan from the terror list “as soon as possible.” An Israeli official said the
talks on normalization remain purely between the U.S. and Sudan.
“We’re still not there,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity
because he was discussing a confidential diplomatic matter. He said the Israeli
government hopes a deal can be wrapped up before the U.S. election on Nov. 3.
For Israel, a cordial relationship with Sudan would be a symbolic victory.
Sudan, a Muslim-majority African country, has long said it supports the
Palestinian people in their calls for an independent state. Khartoum hosted the
historic Arab League summit after the 1967 Mideast War in which Israel captured
the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem — lands the Palestinians seek for
that state. The conference approved a resolution that became known as the “three
no’s” — no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel and no negotiations. The
designation of Sudan as a “state sponsor of terrorism” dates to the 1990s, when
the nation briefly hosted Osama bin Laden and other wanted militants. Sudan was
also believed to have served as a pipeline for Iran to supply weapons to
Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip.
Osman Mirghani, a Sudanese analyst and editor of the daily newspaper al-Tayar,
said Sudanese leaders don’t have unlimited time to decide. “The U.S. offer of
incentives .. will not last too long. It is related to the U.S. presidential
election on one side, and the number of Arab states that normalize,” he said.
With Sudan’s long-time autocratic leader Omar al-Bashir deposed and facing war
crimes and other charges, Sudan’s transitional authorities believe that the
reasons behind the terrorism listing have evaporated. But many in the U.S.
maintain Sudan should atone for its previous government’s actions.
Sudan has already agreed with the U.S. State Department, in theory, to a
compensation deal for victims of the 1998 bombings of the American embassies in
Kenya and Tanzania, which were orchestrated by bin Laden’s al-Qaida network
while he was living in Sudan. However, questions about the fairness of the
proposed compensation deal to non-American victims, including those who were
working for the embassies and have subsequently become U.S. citizens, have
stalled its consideration in Congress which must approve the agreement.
Meanwhile, some families of the victims of the September 11 attacks have also
started procedures to claim compensation from Sudan, though the country’s links
to that terror plot are less clear. Their complaint has complicated the embassy
bombing compensation deal and could further deter the U.S. Congress from
removing Sudan from the list. In the meantime, Sudan’s government realizes it
has only so many cards to play.“We should get ourselves off that list, which the
U.S. is using as leverage to get some benefits out of the relationship that it
has with Sudan, which is completely legitimate,” Sudan’s acting Foreign Minister
Omar Qamar al-Din told reporters in Geneva last month.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 04-05/2020
This is America, a dystopian city on a hill
Janine di Giovanni/The National/October/04/2020
The US will bounce back, but we have a dreadful year and an extraordinary
election to get through first.
Here on the US East Coast, it’s the traditional time for American football
games, prepping for Halloween or Thanksgiving, or watching great maple trees
turn red and orange.
But there is no tradition this year. Instead, most Americans find themselves
caught in an increasingly dystopian world as elections grow nearer. Last week
was the pinnacle, featuring the most startling presidential debate – or debacle
as most see it – in history and then, a few days later, President Donald Trump
and his wife Melania testing positive for Covid-19.
With Mr Trump, who is 74 and overweight, now hospitalised at Walter Reed
Hospital, and more members of his circle testing positive, the 2020 election
campaign has been turned upside down. There is also some confusion in the
timeline of Mr Trump’s illness. He didn’t inform the public until 1am on Friday,
but his doctors have made references to symptoms or treatments beginning while
he was still attending large fundraisers and rallies.
It would have been less bizarre had Mr Trump recognised that stopping the spread
of the virus, by wearing masks and practising social distancing, is imperative.
Instead, he encouraged his fan base to eschew masks. He called for large cities
to be re-opened. He suggested that people drink bleach to combat the virus.
Despite warnings, he has fixated on the release of a vaccine before the election
– presumably to gain votes.
There might have been more sympathy for the Trumps had his wife not been caught
on the “Melania tapes” earlier in the week. In a conversation with a former
aide, the First Lady peppered her halting English with profanities to describe
her White House Christmas duties, and her apparent disdain for the plight of
immigrant children separated from their parents.
But it was the horror of the debate that left most Americans, even some of his
supporters, reeling. Mr Biden stressed how the President had failed his country
during the pandemic, leaving 200,000 dead. His “empty chair” image – symbolising
how many families lost a loved one to the virus – went viral.
To counter, Trump went full-throttle bully. If it left anyone undecided about
their vote after witnessing the spectacle, it is – in the words of the comedian
David Sedaris – like being on an airplane and being offered chicken or a platter
containing bits of broken glass, and then asking how the chicken is cooked.
Looking back historically at other debates, it is possible Mr Trump could climb
out of this mess, if only because his Maga (Make American Great Again) voter
base saw his performance as a victory.
There have been other unorthodox debates that changed American history.
In 1960, a young senator, John Kennedy, and vice president Richard Nixon, a
tireless campaigner and a skilled politician, took to the stage. Nixon had been
ill and refused to wear make-up because Kennedy goaded him into rejecting it.
But the duplicitous Kennedy – who used television the way Mr Trump uses Twitter
– had already applied his layer of foundation over tanned skin.
Nixon had still been leading the polls. Kennedy – the scion of a corrupt
Irish-Catholic mafia – was an unknown. But while the former looked gaunt and
pale from his illness, the latter appeared handsome – and played dirty. He
prepped for weeks and broke a gentleman’s rule not to discuss foreign policy.
Nixon was unprepared for Cold War conversation. Kennedy went on to win in one of
the closest presidential elections, at that time, in history.
In 1980, a former Hollywood actor whose most famous co-star was a chimp debated
against President Jimmy Carter. Mr Carter’s presidency had not been successful.
There were American hostages in Iran, and economic growth was stagnant. He used
the debate to talk about a conversation with his 13-year-old daughter about
nuclear weapons. Mr Carter had the lead in the polls. But Reagan used his
refrain of “are you better off now then you were four years ago?” to help usher
in a right-wing conservative shift in politics, Reaganomics and the Moral
Majority movement.
In 1992, a relatively unknown governor from Arkansas, Bill Clinton, went up
against the formidable, popular Gulf War president, George HW Bush. Bush’s
detractors said he was an out-of-touch millionaire. Ross Perot, another Texas
millionaire, entered the race and began taking Bush’s Republican votes. During
the debate, Bush was asked how the national debt had affected the candidates
personally. Bush – a privileged senator’s son – stumbled through the question.
Mr Clinton knew how to connect with the audience; he had a natural warmth. Bush
got caught staring at his watch while Mr Clinton spoke. A few weeks later, Mr
Clinton won the election.
By November 3, we might not remember the debate if things get increasingly
worse. There is talk already of Mr Trump’s line of succession. There is
increasing muttering about post-election violence and civil strife. There is
speculation of a second wave of Covid-19.His own diagnosis also imperils the
Supreme Court installation of Amy Coney Barrett before Election Day. It would
have been daunting for the confirmation to happen in steady times – but with the
President in hospital, pulling off a complex operation that would need three
branches of government involved in the next four weeks seems unlikely.
Senior Republicans are adamant that they will move ahead with the hearings on
her nomination; but the recent events do mean that there is a possibility
Republicans can lose their slim majority in the Judiciary Committee.
We are only in October, and 2020 will go down as one of the most challenging and
strange times in American history. I have no doubt we will recover, as a nation.
Americans are historically resilient and Covid-19 will eventually lose its
power. But whether or not Mr Trump will admit to losing his is another matter.
*Janine di Giovanni is a Senior Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute
for Global Affairs
A Few Global Concerns that Affect Us All
Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/October 04/2020
Now, I believe, the US is taking measures to prevent the Chinese Communist Party
from dominating the world, stealing American secrets, further imposing their
system on the US and benefiting from US trade in a way that they do not allow
the US to benefit.... People realize this is an evil, dark regime that many
people have been deluded about for many years. People are now realizing their
error.... I only hope that we, in Britain, in Europe, and in the US and other
countries, are able to do that more in earnest.
Another thing that is coming into question is that we -- in my view foolishly --
have plans to allow China to construct a series of nuclear power stations in
Britain. We hope that Britain will review these plans and stop them from
happening.
The situation with Lebanon and Hizbollah is all tied up with Iran. Hezbollah is
a creation of Iran, directed by Iran and funded by Iran. It is basically an
extension of the Ayatollah's right arm.... If the current US administration were
to lose the election, there would probably be a policy similar to what the
previous administration had, with every effort made, probably, to try and
resurrect the nuclear deal. This action would certainly help enable Iran to have
nuclear weapons.
The ICC are also trying to investigate Britain for war crimes in Iraq -- as well
as the US for war crimes in Afghanistan. Of course, it is the usual three
suspects, Britain, US, and Israel, they firmly have in their sights.... The
International Criminal Court is no longer a legal body. It is now a political
body. It has turned itself into something it was never intended to be.
Iran is under enormous pressure right now -- the greatest pressure since the
creation of the Islamic Republic during its Islamic Revolution back in 1979. The
leaders of Iran, the Ayatollah and the various others who run the country, are
doubtless deeply worried about the survival of their regime.
There are a few global concerns that affect us all. The first is the current
situation with Iran and its various ramifications. The second, connected with
Iran, is the current situation in Lebanon, with Hezbollah in particular, which
is also in Syria.
The next is the International Criminal Court, from which we are imminently
expecting a decision that could have a potential impact on Israel as well as on
the rest of us.
Iran, I believe, is under enormous pressure right now -- the greatest pressure
since the creation of the Islamic Republic during its Islamic Revolution back in
1979.
The leaders of Iran, the Ayatollah and the various others who run the country,
are doubtless deeply worried about the survival of their regime. Regime survival
for them is, of course, everything. Keeping their flame alive in Iran is the
number one imperative of all that they do. To maintain that regime, they carry
out large numbers of extreme activities both there and around the world.
First, their economy is reeling in a great depression with little sign of hope,
due mainly to the United States' "maximum pressure" campaign.
The US has imposed severe sanctions on Iran and also encouraged other countries
not break those sanctions, and, in some instances, to take their own measures
against Iran. These strictures have caused Iran an enormous problem.
They follow, of course, the repudiation by the current US administration of the
dreadful Iran nuclear agreement, the JCPOA, which was supposedly intended to
prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear armed state, but which actually paved the
way for Iran to become a fully nuclear-armed state.
We have been aware, ever since the start of the JCPOA, that even if Iran did not
breach the agreement, it still would be an extremely dangerous country. We know,
however, thanks to the Israelis, that ever since it took effect, Iran did breach
it, both in letter and in spirit.
It was with incredible courage and skill, as well as an enormous risk to their
own lives, that Israeli operatives and agents went into the lion's den and
seized containers full of secret archives that were stored in places in Tehran
that virtually no one else, even within the regime, actually knew about or knew
existed. For the head of Israel's Mossad, Yossi Cohen, to decide to do that,
with all the multiple risks involved, showed immense courage. The world can be
grateful to him for his energy and his dedication and, above all, his courage in
ordering the operation to take place.
The result -- the American repudiation of the deal -- led to those sanctions
being reimposed. Unfortunately, that decision has not been followed by Europe.
The Europeans, partly out of animosity to the US, partly because of their own
greed and self‑interest towards Iran, have failed to follow the American lead,
despite efforts to persuade them to do so – unfortunately also the UK.
The Americans, I believe, are on the verge, in the near future, of reimposing
snapback sanctions, although the UN Security Council unsurprisingly vetoed the
move. It can be still done unilaterally by the United States, but of course we
wait to see whether it actually works in practice.
In addition, a UN embargo on Iranian weapon import and export is due to expire
shortly. The Americans are currently trying to rally support around the world,
as are the Israelis, for the UN to maintain those sanctions rather than
relinquish them. They were part of the nuclear deal, and if Iran had adhered to
the deal, at this time they would be stopped.
Other factors that go into the decision are, first of all, the killing of the
world's worst terrorist, Qasem Soleimani, responsible for a huge number of
deaths inside and outside Iran, as well as in Israel, and in the military forces
of Great Britain and the United States. The deaths include the killing of more
than a thousand British and American soldiers fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan,
mostly done not by him but by his proxies around the world. Soleimani's death,
which was mourned by some, was not mourned by many in Iran, despite the efforts
of their media and Western media to show otherwise. His death was mourned mainly
among the hierarchy of the regime.
Many of the Iranian people knew that part of their economic misery was due to
his spending vast amounts of Iranian money on his overseas adventures. Apart
from the repressive nature of the man, they resented that about him. He was the
second‑most important man in Iran; removing him really undermined the Islamic
Republic and caused a lot of people to doubt how powerful the leaders were, when
an act like that could be taken against them by the United States with what
appeared to be relative ease.
Following hard on the heels of that incident was the downing of a Ukrainian
airliner over Tehran -- a terrible tragedy in its own right, but, also, one that
further undermined internal confidence in the regime and caused people to
question it in ways they had not before. We have also seen, over the last two
years, large‑scale protests in Iran. They have been ruthlessly suppressed by the
regime, which has killed a large number of Iranians in the process of preventing
them. Of course, as elsewhere in the world, we have also seen the tragedy of
coronavirus strike Iran. It has hit the country particularly hard and has
highlighted for the Iranian people the shortcomings of their government, as well
as being even more damaging to the economy.
Until recently, the Ayatollah and his followers had made it clear that Muslims
were immune from coronavirus. Suddenly, he has started to wear a mask. When he
was photographed in a meeting with the President of Iraq not so long ago, both
men were wearing masks.
Other current nails that have been banged into Iran at the moment are a large
number of unexplained explosions that have been taking place there, including in
seaports. The explosions, which have affected energy infrastructure among other
places, Iran has not been able to explain.
The largest was the attack on Natanz, the centrifuge facility that is critical
to the Iranian nuclear regime. The Iranians have admitted that it severely
damaged their nuclear program. All of these things combined undoubtedly lead to
the Iranians to being worried about their future, and rightly so. It is, in my
opinion, extremely important for the US to maintain maximum pressure on Iran.
It is also extremely important that other governments, particularly in Europe,
join them in that. Two final thoughts about Iran: the first is that I do not
believe that the Iranian regime is likely to be brought down by large‑scale
public unrest. The public, although they are unhappy with the regime, are also
very well aware what happened when the people in Syria tried to bring down
Assad: a vast number of deaths resulted. The last thing they want is to have
that visited on their own country and on their families.
If Iran is going to be brought down, it will probably be by the hand of one of
the many military and paramilitary organizations that exist within it. Of
course, depending on which group brought it down, we would have to see if the
regime that followed the current one in Tehran would be better or worse.
The final concern about Iran is the recently leaked 25‑year strategic
partnership that was announced between Iran and China, which involves China
making massive investments into Iranian infrastructure: multibillion‑dollar
investments over a 25‑year period, into all manner of the Iranian
infrastructure, including railways, ports, energy facilities, as well as the
provision of military equipment and cooperation on the military and security
front.
In return, Iran would provide oil and gas to China at vastly discounted prices.
That is obviously a worrying possibility. It has not come to fruition yet. Some
people doubt that it will, but it could do. China is on a tightrope here. Iran
is enthusiastic about it -- such a partnership could ease Iran's economic
situation.
From China's perspective, though, they have bigger interests in the region, that
include countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and elsewhere. Particularly with
the Gulf states, they most likely do not want to damage their relationship there
by too closely aligning themselves with Iran, particularly on the military side.
China may well be cautious about proceeding with such a measure, although of
course it would include a way of China doing what dominates, to a large extent,
their program, which is to oppose the United States in every way it possibly
can.
The situation with Lebanon and Hizbollah is all tied up with Iran. Hezbollah is
a creation of Iran, directed by Iran and funded by Iran. It is basically an
extension of the Ayatollah's right arm.
We know that Hezbollah have been trying to add more precision‑guided missiles to
the already vast missile arsenal in southern Lebanon. We also know that together
with Iran and other militias, they have been doing their best to develop a base
of operations from which to attack Israel from Syria, as well.
Israel has been successfully hitting back at all of these efforts, including in
Lebanon and Syria. Hezbollah is deeply unhappy with this and intends to strike
back at Israel. It was rumored recently that Israel killed a significant
Hezbollah operative in Lebanon. We do not know for sure -- Israel has not
admitted anything -- it is just speculated. Hezbollah have vowed to avenge that
person.
There also recently was an infiltration operation by Hezbollah into northern
Israel: it attempted to get through. Hezbollah operatives were spotted by IDF
observers using, in addition to their eyes, some very advanced technology.
The Israelis fired at them before they managed to get where they wanted to be
and do what they wanted to do. The Israelis did not shoot to kill. They only
fired warning shots. What Israel wanted to do, rather than to respond in a way
that initiates escalation of the conflict in the north, was to stop it and just
give a warning -- as they did. It gives Hezbollah a way out.
Hezbollah themselves have denied that the infiltration took place. In their
case, they want to do what they can, but they do not seem to be too keen either
on escalating at the moment.
Striking back at Israel would be another way for the Iranian regime to try and
salvage something of their current standing, but of course that would be quite
precarious. It is a classic tactic of dictators to initiate aggression abroad to
distract people from the problems at home; however, they seem to know that such
an action could create more problems for them than it solves.
Finally, on the International Criminal Court, you are probably aware that the
ICC is wanting to prosecute Israel for alleged war crimes involving previous
conflicts and involving what they describe as illegal settlements in Judea and
Samaria. They now think they've found a way of doing it. The pretrial panel in
the International Criminal Court has been pondering for many months now whether
they actually have jurisdiction in this matter. I certainly do not believe they
have jurisdiction. Many distinguished lawyers also believe that. Thirteen member
states of the International Criminal Court, including Germany and, I'm afraid,
not including Britain, put in formal appeals to the ICC not to take this case
forward, because they do not believe that the ICC has jurisdiction over this
case.
The decision is awaited any time now. It is hard to know exactly. It is quite
likely they will decide they have jurisdiction. That will be extremely damaging
for Israel, because it won't result in an immediate decision on whether Israel
did or didn't commit war crimes.
It will go on for years, but it will result in people, members of the
government, members of the IDF, people who have been involved in the various
operations they are trying to condemn Israel for, it will result in them being
subpoenaed to give evidence in the investigation to the ICC before a trial even
begins.
If they refuse to do so, the ICC have the authority to order their arrest with
international arrest warrants, which of course means that people like the Prime
Minister of Israel, the chief of staff, former chief of staff, foreign
ministers, defense ministers, and various high‑level officials and others will
be subject to arrest if they travel to countries that are willing to implement
such an arrest warrant. Not only that, but of course it does give another
propaganda tool to people who want to condemn Israel.
It also damages the world because the International Criminal Court was set up
with good intentions, to bring to justice essentially to dictators and war
criminals who carry out war crimes in countries that are either unable, because
they do not have an adequate legal system or are unwilling to bring them to
justice, which does not of course apply to Israel.
The ICC are also trying to investigate Britain for war crimes in Iraq – as well
as the US for war crimes in Afghanistan. Of course, it is the usual three
suspects, Britain, US, and Israel, they firmly have in their sights.
These things are damaging to the court. The International Criminal Court is no
longer a legal body. It is now a political body. It has turned itself into
something it was never intended to be.
Question: What do you find the British attitude toward China to be after its
COVID‑19 offering to the world?
Col. Kemp: The view of China in Britain and much of Europe, and around the
world, has changed dramatically since coronavirus. We do not know whether it was
the result of a Chinese scientific experiment, which some people say it was.
There were many reasons to think it could have been.
What we do know for sure is that China absolutely mismanaged it. When they first
realized what was happening, they did various things to try and cover it up
without any regard to the safety and the health of the rest of the world.
Just one example was that when they realized where it originated, they
immediately closed down Wuhan to any kind of travel in China. You were not
allowed to fly from Wuhan into any other part of China -- but you were allowed
to fly from Wuhan to other parts of the world. Indeed, many, many people did.
That was one of the ways it was immediately transmitted around the world.
People realize this is an evil, dark regime that many people have been deluded
about for many years. People are now realizing their error. Just one way that is
being manifested in Britain is the role of the Huawei Chinese telecom company in
the new 5G Internet network.
Obviously, it does not take a genius to work out that giving any other country
access, in any way, into that infrastructure is potentially very damaging
long‑term to our own security. Many people warned the government against this
when it first decided to include Huawei, which of course like every other
Chinese company, is controlled by the Chinese Communist Party.
The British government went ahead with the decision anyway. Now, they have
reversed that decision as a result of the current pandemic as well as US
pressure.
Another thing that is coming into question is that we -- in my view foolishly --
have plans to allow China to construct a series of nuclear power stations in
Britain. We hope that Britain will review these plans and stop them from
happening.
Since 1949, when the People's Republic of China was created, it has fought a
Cold War against the West. They have been unrelenting at that. We have not been
fighting back.
Now, I believe, the US is taking measures to prevent the Chinese Communist Party
from dominating the world, stealing American secrets, further imposing their
system on the US and benefiting from US trade in a way that they do not allow
the US to benefit.
The same applies around the world, of course. The pushback has begun. I only
hope that we, in Britain, in Europe, and in the US and other countries, are able
to do that more in earnest.
Question: Iran has a highly sophisticated lobbying operation in Washington DC.
It has made major inroads into the Democratic Party establishment. Does Iran
have a similar lobby in the UK? If so, how influential is it in the UK
government?
Col. Kemp: Yes, Iran does have significant lobbying power here in the UK. That
we were going to go ahead with the Huawei involvement in 5G, speaks masses about
their influence. It was this influence that led Britain to go with the option.
Britain also had another reason to do it: we left the EU. In leaving the EU, we
have, of course, been looking around the world to try and find other
opportunities to boost our economy post‑Brexit. China, of course, was one of
them. It may be a valid reason, but it is not a valid reason to undermine one's
own security. There was also a good deal of industrial‑level lobbying within the
British government that took place, and elsewhere.
If you look at the Huawei UK board, a company controlled by China's Communist
Party, you will see many prominent former British government officials and the
odd minister, on their board.
When the decision was taken that the deal would not go ahead, the chairman of
the board, who was a former senior British official, resigned -- so that gives
you a bit of an insight into the way that China works.
The same is true in the United States. They have Confucius Institutes around the
country, and in universities, which they have used to spread their propaganda
and to exercise control not just on local students there, but also on Chinese
students who are studying at the universities. There are a very, very large
number.
The operation that China carries out, it is very clever. It is very successful.
It is pretty much the same template as they use in other European countries, in
Australia, they use around the world.
Any conflict is highly undesirable, but you could argue, as I would argue if I
was involved in making the decision, that the level of conflict that I would
expect to occur may be a price worth paying for the enormous opportunity it
would give.
Regarding the Middle East, is easy to take counsel of our fears. I do not think
we should in this case. As far as the rest of the Middle East is concerned,
first of all, to say that most Arab governments in the Middle East want this new
peace with Israel to happen.
Whatever they might say publicly, they want it to happen for two reasons. One,
because they want a strong Israel, they want an Israel that is not overwhelmed
or undermined by Islamic extremism. They want that because they see Israel as
being on their side.
They are not going to say so publicly, not very often anyway, but that is what
they want. They know that a strong Israel on their side against Iran is in their
interests.
The level of cooperation that goes on between many Arab governments and Israel
is unknown to most of us but is nevertheless real and growing and reflects a
significant change in the relationship between Arab governments and the state of
Israel.
The second reason is because they know that the current American administration
supports it. They need the US administration on their side. They do not need to
do anything that angers the US administration. They do not need to oppose
decisions taken by the US administration. They see a far greater enemy than any
of the rest of us around the world as being Iran.
If you take Jordan as an example in relation to this issue, Jordan will of
course protest. Jordan have objected to it publicly. They will significantly
raise their voices if this happens, but the Jordanian Army is not right now
facing Israel. The Jordanian Army is facing away from Israel. They have got
their backs to the Zionist entity.
They know they have no threat from Israel because Israel controls the hinterland
of the Jordan Valley. Therefore, they do not represent a threat to Jordan. In
fact, quite the opposite, they support Jordan's security.
If that territory was taken over by what would undoubtedly become a rogue
Islamic state of some sort, that would be a great threat to Jordan amidst all
the other challenges and threats that they face.
Question: Do the mystery attacks in Iran reflect concern on the part of unknown
parties that the current US administration might lose the election and the other
party win legislative power?
Col. Kemp: If Israel is doing some or all of these attacks, is Israel now taking
the chance to strike back at the Iranian nuclear program before there is a
change in administration in the White House? There could be an element of that.
Also, I think it is equally likely that Iran has just crossed a specific red
line, recently announced itself that they crossed a red line in acquiring
quantities of enriched uranium, and there has to be a response that is not just
a message, but also actually imposes damage on the regime in Iran.
Let us not forget, though, that the Stuxnet, allegedly the work of Israel and
the US hand‑in‑hand, maybe even Britain had a hand, who knows? The Stuxnet
cyberattack which severely damaged Iran's nuclear program, that was done during
the Obama administration.
I do not know what any successor administration to the current one, what their
policy would be in relation to Iran. I suppose we would have to wait and see how
things developed. If the current US administration were to lose the election,
there would probably be a policy similar to what the previous administration
had, with every effort made, probably, to try and resurrect the nuclear deal.
This action would certainly help enable Iran to have nuclear weapons.
There are so many things that would be lost to Israel if the current
administration were replaced by an administration that took a much weaker view
in relation to the challenges Israel faces, and a much less supportive view of
Israel.
It would obviously make life a great deal more difficult for the Jewish state.
From my point of view, whether people like the current president, or hate the
current president, in my opinion, he has been by far the best US president for
the state of Israel.
By the way, there is one other point I should make to reinforce my view that you
should not always take counsel of your fears: all these commentators who were
proclaiming that the streets throughout the Middle East would burst into flames
if the US opened an embassy in Jerusalem. What happened? Nothing happened,
except an uptick in violence on the Gaza border by Hamas, which was already
planned.
Question: Do you think Iran and China are interfering in the US elections in
terms of funding some of the social unrest and mobs that are currently plaguing
some US cities? Do you think there is a possibility that the Chinese planned the
release of COVID?
Col. Kemp: We do not know. We may never know. I think China most certainly has
and most certainly will be doing anything it can to influence the election.
If I were to be a betting man, I would say all of the influence the are applying
to that election is being applied against President Trump.
Question: What is the status of cooperation these days between Iran and North
Korea on nuclear weapons, smuggling, and so on?
Col. Kemp: There has, of course, been some cooperation between Iran and North
Korea, particularly on their nuclear program. They were very helpful to the
Iranians.
The burgeoning relationship between Iran and China is immensely more
significant, both in terms of the capabilities of China, in the technological
world, in the weapons world, and also the economic power of China, compared to,
for example, North Korea.
We should, of course, keep an eye on North Korea in relation to Iran, but China
in particular, we should. We do know that China and Iran have enormous empathy
for each other and it goes back many years, the sympathy and support for each
other, who both view much of the rest of the world as being, in a particular
way, against them.
They see themselves as being pretty much on the same side. It is obviously not a
religious issue. If you think about it, there is a degree of illogic about some
of it: you know that probably the worst persecution of Muslims by a non‑Muslim
state -- China against its Uighur Muslims; we have seen footage recently of
Uighurs being rounded up and put into cattle cars and trains, reminiscent of the
Holocaust.
Yet Iran does not seem to mind that. Iran, as far as I know, has raised no
objection to the severe repression of the Muslim population in China by the
Chinese Communist Party.
On the other hand, I have not seen much in the way of condemnation from any
other countries in the Middle East either, but am not quite sure why. I guess
that they see China as being in many countries cases of being enormously useful
to them and they do not want to alienate it.
**Colonel Richard Kemp is a former British Army Commander. He was also head of
the international terrorism team in the U.K. Cabinet Office and is now a writer
and speaker on international and military affairs.
The above are from a briefing to Gatestone Institute on July 29, 2020.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Three Lessons from Nagorno-Karabakh
Ahmed J. Saade/Annahar/October 04/2020
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict offers a mosaic of information on the political
developments that have been shaping the #Middle East in recent years, and will
undoubtedly continue to do so. Here below, we look at the major takeaways to be
drawn from this event.
1 - The Russians and Turkish have proven (once again) to be masters of foreign
policy.
Let's face it. Some governments are simply smarter than others at getting what
they want. Indeed, 2020 has proven to be a great year for Russian and Turkish
foreign affairs (and a catastrophic one for France by the way). The Turks, with
their unconditional support of allies that has now become their political
trademark and has given them international credibility, are once again proving
to be valuable allies who can be counted on, this time to #Azerbaijan.
The Russians, with their different but equally effective “under the table”
strategy, have also achieved tactical moves along NATO’s borders – particularly
its southern flank. Both superpowers (any claim that either of them is not a
superpower would be a naive and subjective statement) now have their feet in
Libya and are there to stay.
In Nagorno-Karabakh, just as they did in Syria and Libya, Russians and Turks
fight, but remain “politically cordial”. Their political maturity has taught
them that a full-blown confrontation would have disastrous consequences for both
parties. Indeed, any Russian-Turkish conflict can be illustrated as the follow
dialogue: “I want this, you want that. Ok, let’s fight and see who wins. Let the
best man win but let’s stay friends, otherwise Western countries will take
advantage”.
Trump was not wrong when he called Erdogan and Putin “world-class chess
players”. They might not be familiar with Game Theory (mathematical analysis of
the various actions to take against an opponent), but they clearly seem to
master it.
2 - Does “Iranian ideology” still exist?
While some Iranian officials have recently come forward to claim the regime's
unconditional support for their "Azerbaijani brothers", there has been mounting
evidence of Iranian assistance for Armenia against the Chi'a majority country.
Iran, it has been shown, is providing a crucial logistical platform for the
entry of Russian tactical support to Armenia.
It is noteworthy to point out that Iranian officials were under increasing
pressure recently, as important pro-Azerbaijan protests have taken place in some
Turkish-speaking provinces of Iran. This, in parallel to the regime's de facto
religious umbrella, certainly had a role to play in bringing about these
“forced” declarations. Simply put, the Iranian regime was risking (and perhaps
still is) its credibility within its international Chi'a audience.
The question remains: Why is Iran supporting Armenia and not a Chi’a majority
country? The answer is a matter of geopolitical strategy, which seemingly is now
of greater importance to Iran than its ideological values. Indeed, “exporting
the revolution” and “fighting imperialism”, the two missions that constitute the
backbone of the regime’s legitimacy, appear to be fading. In fact, if we look at
the military conflicts and political struggles occurring in the MENA, Iran
mostly sides with counterrevolutionaries and reactionary movements.
In this direction, Iran’s interest in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is part of a
game of chess opposing it to #Turkey, and Iranian support for Armenia is an
attempt to curb Turkey’s increasing influence in the region. Clearly, Turkey is
the only credible challenger of Iran in the region – the Arabs definitely are
not.
3 – For Gulf states, Turkey is a bigger problem than Iran.
In Nagorno-Karabakh, as evidenced by their media activity, Gulf states (headed
by the UAE as is now often the case) back Armenia against Azerbaijan, siding
with Iran and Russia. One might ask why, as they clearly have no business in the
region. The answer is simple, and summarizes their entire foreign policy:
Standing against Turkey everywhere, no matter what. Be it in Libya, Syria (yes,
Syria) or Tunisia, be it in the Eastern-Mediterranean conflict opposing Turkey
and Greece where the UAE has no business, or even the Kashmir issue where Gulf
states have sided with India against Pakistan, and now Nagorno-Karabakh, this is
their stance.
Gulf regimes propagate the idea that Iran is public enemy number one, but where
are they actually fighting this enemy they dread so much? In Yemen, Emiratis and
Iranians are sharing the spoils and have divided the territory between
themselves. In Syria, they all backed Assad. In Libya, they jointly support
Haftar against the GNA. In OPEC, Saudi Arabia and Iran are hardline allies.
Actually, one of the main reasons why Iran has not fully suffocated yet under US
sanctions is because the UAE is providing a financial breathing window to
Khamenei’s regime.
Undoubtedly, a distinction must be made between Saudi Arabia and the UAE on this
matter. Saudis do have an ideological/moral/political problem with Iran, but
Emiratis do not. In fact, Iran is a vital economic and political ally for the
UAE. Nevertheless, Emiratis (which is the de facto leader of GCC policy) have
been able to form a close partnership with Saudis by singling out the one
concrete threat for both regimes’ existence, Turkey. The Turkish political model
poses a risk to Saudi hegemony on the Sunni Muslim world, and Erdogan’s fast
increasing popularity among Sunnis – which isn’t slowing down anytime soon -
constitutes a major issue for this moral dominance. Consequently, Iran has moved
to second place in their list of enemies, while Turkey now occupies the top
spot. However, is the Emirati-Saudi strategy doing any favor to Saudi Arabia’s
popularity in the Muslim world? It seems not.
2020 has proven to be a difficult year for many. Inevitably, it announces the
start of a decade full of radical changes that could reshape the Middle East as
we know it.
*Ahmed J. Saade is a Doctoral Researcher in Macreconomic Policy at Cranfield
University. He holds a teaching position at UCL’s (University College London)
department of Economics, and is a member of Young Professionals in Foreign
Policy. The Economics Group he belongs to is consistently ranked among the best
in the world.