English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese,
Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 04/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.october04.20.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus Cures The Paralysed Man/I say to you,
stand up, take your mat and go to your home.’
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint
Mark 02,01-12/:”When Jesus returned to Capernaum after some days, it was
reported that he was at home. So many gathered around that there was no longer
room for them, not even in front of the door; and he was speaking the word to
them. Then some people came, bringing to him a paralysed man, carried by four of
them. And when they could not bring him to Jesus because of the crowd, they
removed the roof above him; and after having dug through it, they let down the
mat on which the paralytic lay. When Jesus saw their faith, he said to the
paralytic, ‘Son, your sins are forgiven.’ Now some of the scribes were sitting
there, questioning in their hearts, ‘Why does this fellow speak in this way? It
is blasphemy! Who can forgive sins but God alone?’At once Jesus perceived in his
spirit that they were discussing these questions among themselves; and he said
to them, ‘Why do you raise such questions in your hearts? Which is easier, to
say to the paralytic, “Your sins are forgiven”, or to say, “Stand up and take
your mat and walk”? But so that you may know that the Son of Man has authority
on earth to forgive sins’ he said to the paralytic ‘I say to you, stand up, take
your mat and go to your home.’And he stood up, and immediately took the mat and
went out before all of them; so that they were all amazed and glorified God,
saying, ‘We have never seen anything like this!’
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on October 03-04/2020
Lebanon Puts More than 100 Districts on Coronavirus Lockdown
Ministry of Health: 1321 new Corona cases, 12 deaths
US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
Rahi, Royard convene: We support the call for Lebanon's active neutrality
because it is the only path to peace and prosperity
Aoun wishes Trump speedy recovery
Berri: ISIS is an unfinished project, negotiations framework a mere agreement to
demarcate borders
Israel posts video of alleged Hezbollah Beirut arms plants
Frem: Train of demarcation negotiations must continue till the end
Kanaan: Approval of 'illegal enrichment law' shows that Lebanon is moving
towards transparency
Najm: Port explosion is an opportunity for the judiciary to enforce the law away
from pressure
Border Demarcation Agreement Must be Made Public, Says Sabaa Party
The Hezbollah Money Laundering Prevention Act
The Israeli-Lebanese Negotiations and their Equivocations/Charles Elias
Chartouni/October 03/2020
Hezbollah’s Urban Missile Factories Put Civilians at Risk/Hanin Ghaddar and
Matthew Levitt/The Washington Institute/October 04/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
October 03-04/2020
Trump’s hospital stay due coronavirus renews focus on
transfer of power provisions
President Trump, at 'serious risk' of COVID-19 complications according to
experts, takes experimental drug
Coronavirus: Trump went through ‘very concerning’ period, next 48 hours critical
Exhausted Armenians gather at Karabakh border after fleeing fighting
At least 64 Turkey-backed Syrians dead in Nagorno-Karabakh: Monitor
Welder killed in explosion in Iranian industrial town: Mehr news agency
President Rouhani: Iran’s economy is in a better position than Germany’s
French-Iranian academic Fariba Adelkhah temporarily released in Iran: Laywer
Jordan’s King accepts resignation of PM Omar al-Razzaz
Tributes pour in as spiritual leader of Iraq’s Yazidi minority dies at 87
France’s Macron targets Islamist ‘ghettoisation’ of society
Israel Prepares for Arrival of New Upgraded Warships to 'Deter Hizbullah'
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October
03-04/2020
Lebanon and Israel, Officially Enemies, Agree to Talks
on Sea Border/Ben Hubbard and Adam Rasgon/The New York Times/October 03/2020
A complicated region and its complicated war/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/October
03, 2020
Why there (probably) won’t be a war in the Med/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/October
03/2020
Changing of the guard in Germany/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/October 03, 2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on October 03-04/2020
Lebanon Puts More than 100 Districts on Coronavirus
Lockdown
Agence France Presse/October 03/2020
Lebanon put 111 villages and towns nationwide on lockdown for a week after a
series of record novel coronavirus daily infection rates, the interior ministry
said Friday. The move came after widespread objections to a nationwide lockdown
in August, as the country faces its worst economic crisis in decades.
From early Sunday and for eight days in the villages listed, residents were to
"remain at home", and "wear a mask covering their mouth and nose if forced to go
out", the ministry said in a statement. State institutions and places of worship
would close, but health centres and delivery services would be exempted, it
added. The head of a major Beirut public hospital battling Covid-19, Firass
Abiad, welcomed the new district-by-district approach. "This will help identify
hotspots and (implement) a more focused approach to restrictive measures. This
can be a good alternative to the unpopular total lockdown," he said on Twitter.
Cases have spiked in the aftermath of a massive explosion at the Beirut port on
August 4 that killed more than 190 people and overwhelmed the capital's health
services, with thousands of wounded.The country has recorded 42,159 Covid-19
cases since February, including 386 deaths.Authorities fear that a major spike
would overwhelm the country's fragile health sector.
Ministry of Health: 1321 new Corona cases, 12 deaths
NNA/Saturday 03 October 2020
The Ministry of Public Health announced Saturday the registration of 1,321 new
Coronavirus cases, which raises the cumulative number since February 21 to-date
to 43,480 cases.It added that 12 death cases were registered during the past 24
hours.
US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling
price at LBP 3900
NNA/Saturday 03 October 2020
The Money Changers Syndicate announced in a statement addressed to money
changing companies and institutions, Saturday’s USD exchange rate against the
Lebanese pound as follows:
Buying price at a minimum of LBP 3850
Selling price at a maximum of LBP 3900
Rahi, Royard convene: We support the call for Lebanon's
active neutrality because it is the only path to peace and prosperity
NNA/Saturday 03 October 2020
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, met this morning at the
patriarchal summer residence in Dimane, with French Defense Parliamentary
Committee Member, MP Gwandal Royard, who briefed him on the atmosphere of the
French initiative and means of supporting Lebanon at all levels. On emerging,
Royard said "the meeting was an occasion to reiterate France's support, and my
personal support, for the initiative launched by the Patriarch, in which he
called for Lebanon's active neutrality, because in our view this is the only way
that leads to peace and prosperity in Lebanon, and to preserving the dignity of
the Lebanese people who are going through a difficult political and economic
crisis." "We also broached Lebanon's need today for an emergency government, and
we know his Beatitude's ability to help in the issue of dialogue, as part of his
activity. As for the third reason for the visit, it is related to France's
humanitarian role in Lebanon, whether in terms of rebuilding Beirut and the
port, or in terms of its support for private and Christian schools and
universities, to enable Lebanese children and youth to remain in their lands
despite the sadness and despair they are experiencing, given the harsh
conditions Lebanon is going through. Yet in spite of all this, we must plant
hope in the souls, and we hope that our cooperation with Patriarch al-Rahi will
lead to the planting of this hope and true joy," the French MP underlined.
In response to a question about French President Emmanuel Macron's initiative,
Royard said: "President Macron has been very clear, and France's initiative is
always on the table. We are relying on Lebanese officials to finally agree and
form a new government, for old political differences to stop and for each to
assume responsibility...and to see the path of hope by forming a new government
that finds solutions to problems, especially since the road map is present, so
we are pursuing dialogue and pressure."
It is to note that the Patriarch also met yesterday with Papal Ambassador,
Archbishop Joseph Spiteri, with whom he discussed a number of ecclesiastical and
national issues and the role of the Holy See through his diplomacy in supporting
Lebanon and enhancing its stability.
Aoun wishes Trump speedy recovery
NNA /Saturday 03 October 2020
President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, wished US President, Donald Trump, and
his wife a speedy recovery after they were infected with the Coronavirus. "After
learning that you and your wife, Mrs. Melania, and some family members were
infected with the Coronavirus, this epidemic that is still spreading around the
world, I wish you a speedy recovery and resuming your normal life as soon as
possible," President Aoun said in a cable to his US counterpart.He also
expressed his hope for the success of the efforts of all countries to combat the
COVID-19 virus and to find a treatment that would end its control of the
daily life of all peoples of the world.
Berri: ISIS is an unfinished project, negotiations
framework a mere agreement to demarcate borders
NNA/Saturday 03 October 2020
House Speaker Nabih Berri confirmed, during his meeting today with a delegation
from "Al-Mayadeen" media network headed by its board chairman, Ghassan Bin Jeddo,
that "the utmost betrayal of the principle is what happened with the issue of
Palestine and Jerusalem, as it is the criterion for measuring belonging in the
right position, for Palestine and Jerusalem are not a piece of land, but rather
two pieces of heaven."He emphasized that "Lebanon is the most country in the
Arab world that is affected by reconciling with the Israeli enemy."
"Lebanon is located within a shifting environment of dangerous repercussions
across the region, from Iraq, Syria and Yemen, which are sister countries that
are still within the risk of division, so what is required is patience and not
surrender, for such a danger is not the destiny of this nation," Berri asserted.
On the framework agreement regarding the demarcation of land and sea borders
between Lebanon and occupied Palestine, Berri said: "It is a necessary step, but
it is not sufficient. It must be accompanied with the formation of a government
as soon as possible, one that is capable of saving the country from its
floundering crises, and implementing the detailed contents of the framework
agreement declaration."He added: "The framework agreement is an agreement to
demarcate borders, nothing more, nothing less."
Berri reiterated "adherence to all components of the French initiative,"
pointing out that "the main challenge now is to reach an agreement on naming the
prime minister, and the rest of the matters and steps are easy to agree upon
under the rooftop of this initiative."Concerning fears of the awakening threat
of terrorism, he said: "Yes, ISIS is a project that has not ended, neither in
Syria, nor in Iraq, or even in Lebanon." Earlier today, the House Speaker also
met with former MP Nasser Qandil, who said after the meeting that the visit was
to commend "this great national achievement by Speaker Berri, after long
patience, suffering and steadfastness in terms of national constants and
rights...The framework for demarcating the borders is much more significant than
what many can think, and it is undoubtedly, as the days will reveal, a turning
point in the lives of the Lebanese and in the renaissance of their economy and
society, and an opportunity for them to show more cohesion and adherence to
their national unity in this Arab era of heading towards normalization."Qandil
lauded the House Speaker's efforts and keenness on the Lebanese state, relaying
his confidence in the country's ability to overcome its ordeals, and hope that
"in a reasonable period, there would a national government that can assume
responsibilities, since the framework agreement requires a cabinet that can deal
with a fateful issue, with sovereign wealth, with a responsibility that is
feared to be lost amidst the chaos if the country remains without a government."
Israel posts video of alleged Hezbollah Beirut arms plants
AFP/Saturday 03 October 2020
The Israeli army released videos on Friday meant to prove the presence of
Hezbollah missile factories in the suburbs of Beirut, despite the denials of the
Lebanese Shia movement. On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
accused Hezbollah of manufacturing and storing weapons near fuel facilities in
Beirut and warned of a "another tragedy" in the event of an explosion. On August
4, hundreds of tonnes of ammonium nitrate stored in a warehouse at Beirut's port
exploded, killing more than 190 people, injuring thousands and ravaging large
parts of the city. Netanyahu has repeatedly accused Hezbollah, backed by
Israel's arch-foe Iran, of building missiles to attack the Jewish state.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah charged the Israeli premier with "inciting the
Lebanese people against Hezbollah as usual"."We don't store rockets at Beirut
port, nor do we put them next to gas stations," he said in a televised address.
"We will allow media outlets to go into this site and see what's there," he
said. Dozens of journalists, including an AFP photographer, then went to the
site located in Jnah, in Beirut's southern suburbs. There they saw heavy
machinery inside a two-story warehouse. "This is a normal industrial site," said
Hezbollah spokesman Mohammad Afif, who accompanied the group. In the latest
salvo in the media war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Israeli army on Friday
posted a video on its WhatsApp and Twitter accounts showing the equipment
journalists had filmed at the Beirut site. According to the video, the images
show a "laser cutting machine", a "hydraulic cutting machine", a "rolling
machine" and a machine for bending metal -- equipment which it said enables the
production of components for precision-guided missiles. The army said the
cutters could be used to create "warheads" and "stabilization fins", and the two
other machines to form metal cylinders used in building missiles able to strike
strategic targets in Israel. In addition to the Jnah factory, the Israeli
military on Tuesday said it had located weapons plants under residential
properties in Beirut's Laylaki and Choueifat districts. "It's as if the parking
lot of these buildings is a precision missile manufacturing plant," an Israeli
military official told AFP on Friday, requesting anonymity. In a second video,
the army showed aerial footage that it said was shot the day after Netanyahu's
statement, of "suspicious traffic" between the Choueifat location and "another
Hezbollah facility" in the southern suburb of Burj al-Barajneh, implying that
equipment had been moved. Hezbollah and Israel fought a devastating month-long
war in 2006 which killed more than 1,200 on the Lebanese side, mainly civilians,
and 160 on the Israelis side, most of them soldiers.
Israel has also carried out dozens of air strikes on Hezbollah targets in
neighboring Syria, where the group is fighting alongside the government of
President Bashar al-Assad. Israel and Lebanon are still technically at war, and
their common border, patrolled on the Lebanese side by a UN force, remains the
scene of sporadic skirmishes. Nevertheless, the two neighbors on Thursday
announced forthcoming talks, under UN mediation, on a dispute over their
maritime border. The issue of the sea frontier is particularly sensitive, as
Lebanon wants to drill for hydrocarbons in a part of the Mediterranean disputed
by Israel.
Frem: Train of demarcation negotiations must continue till the end
NNA/October 03/2020
Resigned MP Neemat Frem tweeted Saturday on the demarcation issue, saying: "As
the train of negotiations to demarcate the land and sea borders between Lebanon
and Israel takes off, this is a historic event that must continue till the
end...Yet, the hunger and increasing pain of the people, especially in the
upcoming months, remains a bitter reality...Who will address it and how?"
Kanaan: Approval of 'illegal enrichment law' shows
that Lebanon is moving towards transparency
NNA /October 03/2020
"Strong Lebanon" Parliamentary Bloc Secretary, MP Ibrahim Kanaan, Saturday,
deemed that endorsing the "Illegal Enrichment Law" is an indication that the
country is heading towards transparency, considering that passing this law by
the Parliament is an internationally-recognized achievement.
Touching on the cabinet issue, Kanaan stressed that "we are in urgent need of a
speedy government formation," adding, "Solving the problems we are suffering
from requires executive government decisions, finalizing the agreement with the
International Monetary Fund, starting the required reforms, and reopening the
door to implementing the Cedar conference and attracting cash, which would save
the country from the fate of lifting-off subsidies."
"The previous experience has taught everyone, and the financial, economic and
security risks push all towards a path that raises the possibility of yielding
results," he affirmed. "President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, considers
reforms an absolute priority and deals with the government dossier on the basis
of this approach, and he does not disrupt nor obstruct, and focuses on the
content and the possibility of facilitation, as acknowledged by PM-designate
Mustafa Adib," Kanaan asserted. "We are committed to the position of the
President of the Republic," he confirmed. Over the demarcation of maritime
borders, the MP said: "The goal of demarcating the maritime borders with Israel
is the oil and securing Lebanon's interest and salvation. Lebanon's oil wealth
should not be kept buried, and any fear in this regard should be treated with
courage and principle."
"What is required at this stage is to define the goals to reach an outcome,"
said Kanaan.
Najm: Port explosion is an opportunity for the
judiciary to enforce the law away from pressure
NNA/October 03/2020
Caretaker Minister of Justice, Marie-Claude Najm, said in an interview with LBCI
that "the crime of the port explosion is an opportunity for the judiciary to
apply the law away from any pressure to restore the citizen's confidence in it."
The minister emphasized that she was not aware of the progress of the
investigations into the port explosion, noting that she had contacted the
judicial inspection "on the subject of leaks based on the principle of
confidentiality of the investigation." She added: "There was confusion over the
five days in which it was said that the investigation would end. To be clear,
the intended investigation is an internal administrative procedure carried out
by the government and has nothing to do with the judicial investigation." Najm
pointed out that the government "resorted to conducting a criminal financial
audit of the central bank’s accounts because of the gaps that appeared in them,"
noting that its importance lies in auditing all financial operations and
following them up to the end to determine losses and allocate responsibilities.
On the other hand, Najm considered that the prison overcrowding crisis is a
shame for the Lebanese state, and that the number of detainees in prisons has
reached 48%, noting that the Ministry of Justice has prepared tables according
to ages, the length of sentences, and other factors in order to work on the
special amnesty.
Border Demarcation Agreement Must be Made Public,
Says Sabaa Party
Agence France Presse/October 03/2020
Independent political party, Sabaa, emphasized on Saturday the Lebanese’s right
to see a written publication of a historic US-brokered border demarcation
agreement between Lebanon and Israel. “Few days ago, Mr. Nabih Berri announced
in a press conference that a “framework agreement” was reached to start
negotiations with the Israeli enemy over demarcating the maritime borders. But
the press conference lacked something ... it lacked the “framework agreement”
itself,” said Sabaa in a statement. The party wondered whether the “historic
agreement” was “written or verbal? It must be made public. Lebanese people have
the right to know. We will continue to press for full transparency, especially
on fateful matters,” the party said. On Thursday, Lebanon and Israel said they
will hold US-brokered negotiations on their disputed maritime border.
Berri said a framework agreement had been reached to start the negotiations, and
read out a September 22 copy of it. Washington hailed as a "historic" agreement
between two sides technically still at war.
The Hezbollah Money Laundering Prevention Act
مشروع قانون أميركي قيد الدرس يهدف في حال اقراره منع حزب الله الإرهابي من عمليات
تبيض وغسل الأمول في القطاع المصرفي العالمي
https://joewilson.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/wilson-introduces-the-hezbollah-money-laundering-prevention-act
WILSON INTRODUCES THE HEZBOLLAH MONEY LAUNDERING PREVENTION ACT
Oct 1, 2020 Press Release
On September 30, Congressman Joe Wilson, Ranking Member of the Middle East,
North Africa, and International Terrorism Subcommittee of the House Foreign
Affairs Committee and Chairman of the Republican Study Committee’s (RSC) Foreign
Affairs and National Security Task Force, introduced H.R. 8445 The Hezbollah
Money Laundering Prevention Act of 2020. This far-reaching legislation, based
upon recommendations made by the RSC’s “National Security Strategy,” would stop
the Iranian backed terrorist organization Hezbollah’s money laundering
activities across the world, especially in Lebanon and Latin America, by
requiring the President to make a determination that areas under the terrorist
organization’s control — in south Lebanon and in the tri-border region in South
America — are “primary money laundering concerns” under Section 311 of the
PATRIOT Act.
“This bill represents the toughest sanctions on Hezbollah ever proposed by
Congress. By cutting off banks in areas under the terror group’s control from
the international financial system, this bill will go a long way towards drying
up the Iranian terror proxy’s resources to conduct murderous attacks against the
U.S. and our allies. This bill will make it much harder for Hezbollah to do
Iran’s bidding in propping up the criminal Assad regime, the Houthis in Yemen,
and continue to destabilize the Middle East,” said Congressman Wilson. “I am
grateful that twelve of my colleagues on the Republican Study Committee joined
me on this bill as original co-sponsors and I hope that it will send a strong
message to the White House that Republicans in Congress continue to support a
hard line on Iran.”
NOTE: Original cosponsors of H.R. 8445 are Representatives Ann Wagner (MO-02),
Scott Perry (PA-10), Ted Yoho (FL-03), Tim Burchett (TN-02), Mark Walker
(NC-06), Greg Steube (FL-17), Trent Kelly (MS-01), Don Bacon (NE-02), Clay
Higgins (LA-03), Paul Gosar (AZ-04), Debbie Lesko (AZ-08), and Tom McClintock
(CA-04).
The Israeli-Lebanese Negotiations and their Equivocations
Charles Elias Chartouni/October 03/2020
شارل الياس شرتوني: المفاوضات الإسرائيلية اللبنانية ومراوغاتها
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/90974/charles-elias-chartouni-the-israeli-lebanese-negotiations-and-their-equivocations-%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85/
Lebanese and international observers wonder about the scope of these
negotiations and their incidence on Lebanon’s bankrupted politics and economics.
The ambiguities have prevailed all along starting with their purview,
institutional qualifications of the negotiator ( Nabih Berri ? ), operational
agenda ( tracing the maritime and land borders ? ), and their overall incidence
on the future relationships with the State of Israel, the future course of
normalization ushered with the UAE-Israel peace deal, and the sweep of the
American intermediation.
This abrupt turnaround comes at the heels of a concatenated conflictual process,
whereby the subjugation politics of Shiite fascism, total war scenarios,
subverted French mediation, and oligarchic subterranean deals were dooming the
political fortunes of a decaying Republic. How can a ramschackle Republic
conduct a negotiation process of such magnitude, while the basics of Statehood
are non existent.
The very fact that Nabih Berri were to steer the initial stages of the impending
negotiations, raises major questions insofar as the separation of powers
inherent to a democratic regime, the political connotations of the ongoing modus
operandi, the extent of these negotiations, and their eventual integration into
the restructuring of a dissipating State structure. Yuval Steinitz, the Israeli
minister of energy statement about the future of these negotiations were more
explicit in this regard, than the casuistry of oligarchic backdoor politics and
regional power politics orchestrations. Steinitz said plainly “ we don’t want to
see Lebanon collapsing... and we hope Lebanon will be a global capital of
natural gas and will develop all of its natural resources “, whereas the
calculations of the Shiite power player, Nabih Berri, aim at defecting the
diplomatic pressure elicited by the joint coup d’État mounted jointly with
Hezbollah, evading the financial sanctions which have hit his subordinate, Ali
Hassan Khalil, and put at stake the vested interests of the vast oligarchic
network he manages.
Otherwise, the selective diplomatic scope ( the charting of maritime borders )
might be self defeating if it fails to dovetail larger objectives of overall
political normalization with Israel, and keeps up with the sabotaging strategy
devised by Iranian power politics. The political connotations of this diplomatic
maneuvering are as critical as the technical components, if we ever expect
tangible outcomes in regard of resource management, technical and commercial
partnerships. This diplomatic process cannot condone political curtailments,
doublespeak and insidious sabotaging, and that’s where lies the Achilles heel
that may spike this undertaking at its very premisses. The American arbitration
cannot overlook the sway of Iranian power politics, the simulacrums of Lebanese
Statehood, and the tenacity of the spoils system which defines the essence of
governance. Therefore, we should proceed cautiously and restrain from drawing
hasty conclusions and engaging in hazardous conjectures. Lebanon has to rebuild
its Statehood, rehabilitate its sovereignty and set its civil peace on a steady
course, before engaging Israel and the UN in diplomatic Statecraft, at a time
when Shiite and Sunnite subversive power politics are on a collision course, the
very notion of national legitimacy is questioned by Shiite revisionism and power
politics, and civil peace is subjected to the pull and sway of total war and its
brutalities.
Hezbollah’s Urban Missile Factories Put Civilians at Risk
Hanin Ghaddar and Matthew Levitt/The Washington Institute/October
04/2020
Even if exposing missile sites does not convince the group to dismantle them, it
would at least counter the narrative that ‘resistance’ is good for the Lebanese
people and economy.
Speaking at the UN General Assembly on September 27, Israeli prime minister
Binyamin Netanyahu accused Hezbollah of building missile production sites in the
Ouzai neighborhood of Beirut. The group reportedly intends these underground
facilities—located in the middle of an urban area near mosques, homes, schools,
and the international airport—to convert regular missiles into more accurate
precision weapons. It is unclear whether they are already operational or not.
Israel has repeatedly made clear that it cannot allow Hezbollah to produce new
missile variants or upgrade its existing stockpile domestically. Yet the group
continues to pursue that very goal, placing Lebanese lives and property at
tremendous risk in the process.
MISSILE ACCURACY PROJECT
Within minutes of Netanyahu’s speech, the Israeli military released video and
photos of three Beirut sites reportedly established to improve the precision of
Hezbollah’s missiles—a goal that the prime minister tied directly to Iran. His
UN revelation is by no means the first time Israel has signaled that it is
closely tracking such efforts.
When Netanyahu met with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow this January,
the two discussed the missile facilities Hezbollah was building in Lebanon. At
the time, Netanyahu warned that the country was “becoming a factory for
precision-guided missiles that threaten Israel.”
Then in May, while hosting a meeting of his foreign counterparts, Israeli Air
Force chief Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin displayed a photo of an F-35 stealth fighter
flying over Beirut in broad daylight. The implications of this show of force
were twofold: that Israel could hit targets in Beirut at will, and that there
were targets in the capital it felt may need hitting. Netanyahu made this threat
explicit when he showed aerial photos of the Beirut missile sites at the UN,
warning, “Israel knows what you are doing. Israel knows where you are doing it.
And Israel will not let you get away with it.”
Speaking at a counterterrorism conference in early September, former Mossad
deputy chief Naftali Granot noted that Hezbollah had “recently received small
numbers of GPS precision-guided systems that will help it to convert some heavy
rockets into accurate missiles.” Later that month, Israeli airstrikes in Syria
reportedly targeted specialized machinery for producing precision missiles,
which at the time was en route to Hezbollah. Those strikes spurred Syrian air
defense units to fire a flurry of ill-aimed missiles, mistakenly downing a
Russian military plane and thereby raising the stakes of Israel’s air operations
against the group’s strategic weapons.
USING HUMAN SHIELDS
The Beirut revelation is not the first time Hezbollah has been caught using
Lebanese civilians as human shields for weapons or production facilities. In
July 2017, for example, Israel released aerial photos of southern village
locations where the group had built a rocket factory and arms warehouse. One of
the structures was located about 110 meters from a pair of mosques. The IDF
reported at the time that Hezbollah routinely places rocket launch sites and
other firing positions in the middle of populated areas, along with “a network
of underground tunnels beneath civilian homes and structures to allow its
fighters to move freely between posts.”
Likewise, the group often placed military infrastructure near civilians during
the 2006 Lebanon war. In the southern Shia village of Qana, for instance,
photographs from the conflict showed an arms warehouse directly across the
street from a mosque. And about thirty squads of Hezbollah fighters operated in
the village of Aita al-Shab, many based inside houses.
The group understands how dangerous this tactic is to their countrymen. In fact,
it deliberately used sensitive civilian sites as military facilities during the
2006 war with the understanding that they would be attacked, apparently
believing that this would increase the difficulty of Israeli operations in
southern Lebanon. When detained Hezbollah soldier Muhammad Abd al-Hamid Srour
was asked afterward if he knew that firing a missile at an Israeli tank from a
civilian house would lead to the home’s destruction, he replied that firing was
still “in the general Islamic interest,” and “that if the house was destroyed,
it would simply be rebuilt after the war.” His claim that all homes were
supposed to be evacuated before the fighting began seems like dubious comfort to
those affected, even if true.
This mindset helps explain why the group’s efforts to establish arms production
infrastructure inside Lebanon appear to have stepped up in the years since that
destructive war. In July 2017, the French magazine Intelligence Online published
information confirming that Hezbollah was building two new domestic weapons
factories: one near the northern town of Hermel to produce longer-range
Fateh-110 missiles, and another between the southern coastal towns of Sidon and
Tyre to produce smaller munitions. Earlier that year, the Kuwaiti newspaper Al
Jarida reported that Iran had established multiple facilities fifty meters below
ground and protected them from Israeli bombardment with multiple layers of
defenses, citing an unnamed deputy head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps.
NOT IN MY BACKYARD
After the 2006 war, Hezbollah’s constituency accepted the group’s “Divine
Victory” narrative, believing that the outcome would deter future Israeli
attacks and reap financial compensation from Iran. Yet this also meant that they
regarded the war as the final round in major hostilities with Israel.
Indeed, the relatively long period of quiet (2006-2018) along the border
encouraged many Shia to start thinking about the future, in contrast to their
past mindset of perpetual war footing. Recently, new businesses have
proliferated in Shia strongholds such as the Beirut suburb of Dahiya and further
south. Hotels, restaurants, and modern cafes have opened in every major town,
with backing from Shia investors at home and abroad. This entrepreneurial
mentality has persisted despite the ongoing war next door in Syria. Meanwhile,
the national economy stands to benefit significantly from burgeoning energy
exploration in the Mediterranean.
Hezbollah recognizes that the growing signs of another conflict with Israel
could stunt such developments. Moreover, if war breaks out, the Lebanese people
likely know that they would receive much less reconstruction funding from Gulf
Arab states than they did after the previous war, due to both heightened Sunni-Shia
tensions and donor fatigue. This seems like a sobering realization given the
wide upscaling of Hezbollah’s arsenal and forces, which would heighten the
expected destruction of the next war and push the reconstruction process well
past the seven years the group admitted were necessary to recover from the last
one. In short, the Shia feel they have much more to lose today, so they have
less tolerance for officials who talk of war with Israel.
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
In light of this attitude change, publicly exposing Hezbollah’s missile
factories may be the most effective way of exploiting rifts within the group’s
base and, perhaps, making it think twice about building weapons inside Lebanon.
When Netanyahu revealed the exact locations of the Beirut sites, the people
living near them—mostly Shia civilians who support Hezbollah—had ample cause to
worry that Israel may bomb the facilities at some point, potentially damaging
their homes and killing their loved ones in the process.
The alternatives to such exposure are hardly encouraging. The Lebanese
government is unlikely to do anything about Hezbollah’s domestic weapons
production. On the contrary, Beirut has repeatedly proved willing to cover it
up, and the May elections only increased Hezbollah and Iran’s influence over the
country’s security and military decisions. The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
is also unlikely to act given its observer mission.
Yet the people living above and around Hezbollah’s missile facilities might take
action. After the 2006 war, some residents in the south demanded that the group
remove its missiles from their lands. Many southerners—along with Shia living in
Beirut suburbs and the Beqa Valley—will likely make similar demands if they come
to believe Hezbollah is risking their lives amid looming war. Even if the group
ultimately rejects these demands, it will at least be forced to manage a more
complicated relationship with its core constituency. Therefore, more of these
sites should be exposed, particularly those located in densely populated areas.
In addition, Iran’s support of Hezbollah missile development directly violates
UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war and mandated “no
sales or supply of arms and related materiel to Lebanon except as authorized by
its Government.” Hezbollah would have trouble exploiting that exception given
that Washington, Europe, and key Arab states regard it as wholly or partly a
terrorist organization.
The Security Council and wider international community should therefore consider
strengthening and enforcing Resolution 1701, whether through the Lebanese
government or in line with Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. A good first step is to
mandate international oversight of Beirut’s airport, which could include
monitoring flights and inspecting cargo to ensure no weapons or related parts
are flown in to Hezbollah.
Ultimately, if the intelligence on the Beirut sites is accurate, then Israel may
in fact feel compelled to attack them, much as it has done in Syria. Even if
exposing such locations to the public does not convince Hezbollah to dismantle
them, it would at least counter the group’s narrative that “resistance” is the
best way of defending Lebanon and helping the Shia community prosper.
*Hanin Ghaddar, a veteran Lebanese journalist and researcher, is the Friedmann
Visiting Fellow at The Washington Institute. Matthew Levitt is the Institute’s
Fromer-Wexler Fellow and director of its Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism
and Intelligence.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 03-04/2020
Trump’s hospital stay due coronavirus renews focus on
transfer of power provisions
Bloomberg/Sunday 04 October 2020
The White House said that President Donald Trump remains in charge of the US
government despite his coronavirus diagnosis, but his admission to a
Washington-area military hospital raises the question of what would happen if
his condition worsens significantly.
White House physician Sean Conley said on Saturday that he’s “extremely happy
with the president’s condition and that a “mild cough, nasal congestion and
fatigue were “resolving and improving. But a person familiar with the matter
said Trump’s vital signs over the last 24 hours were very concerning and he
isn’t on a clear path to a full recovery yet. Visit our dedicated coronavirus
site here for all the latest updates.
There are provisions for a peaceful transfer of power if the president becomes
incapacitated. The 25th Amendment, added to the Constitution in the wake of the
assassination of John F. Kennedy, outlines what should happen if unable to carry
out his duties, even if only temporarily.
A White House official said Friday when Trump was taken to Walter Reed National
Military Hospital that there were no plans to transfer presidential authority to
Vice President Mike Pence. White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said
Trump would continue working while there “for the next few days.”
It’s not the first time a world leader has been hospitalized for COVID-19. In
April, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson entered intensive care just a few
days after announcing to the world that he had tested positive for the virus.
After initially experiencing mild symptoms, his condition deteriorated rapidly,
and his doctors considered putting him on a ventilator before he recovered.
In the US, under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, the president can voluntarily
transfer power to the vice president by submitting a letter to the President pro
tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives. This
provision has been used three times in the past when a president underwent
general anesthesia for a medical procedure, according to the Congressional
Research Service. Ronald Reagan used it informally in 1985 and George W. Bush
used it in 2002 and 2007. Although the amendment was intended to provide clear
guidance, circumstances aren’t always so clear. When Reagan was on a gurney at
George Washington Memorial Hospital in 1981 after being wounded in an attempted
assassination, Chief of Staff James Baker and counselor Edwin Meese retreated to
a janitor’s closet to consider whether to temporarily transfer authority to Vice
President George H.W. Bush, according to the book “Rawhide Down,” by Del Quentin
Wilber. Reagan’s advisers ultimately decided not to invoke the 25th Amendment as
the president underwent emergency surgery. Yet his administration did draft
several letters to the President Pro Tempore of the Senate Strom Thurmond of
South Carolina and Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill, transferring power to Bush,
who was on a plane headed to Washington at the time.
The letters were not sent. If the president is not able to voluntarily transfer
power or refuses to do so, the vice president and a majority of the cabinet can
essentially perform the same function by alerting the president pro tempore of
the Senate and the House speaker. Under this scenario, which is provided for in
Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, the vice president would also assume power. If
the president recovers, he or she would then send another letter to the same
people saying he or she is ready to resume command. Under certain circumstances,
the vice president and the cabinet could contest this notification, sending the
whole matter to the Congress for consideration. If Congress decides by a
two-thirds vote that the president is still incapacitated, the vice president
remains the acting president. John Hudak, a scholar at the Brookings
Institution, recommended in July that those in the direct line of succession to
the presidency, including Pence, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and President pro
tempore of the Senate Chuck Grassley, an Iowa Republican, be isolated from the
president, along with members of the cabinet. “It would be especially important
to ensure that the vice president have limited contact with individuals
generally to reduce his chances of contracting the virus as well,” Hudak wrote.
Pence has tested negative for the virus, as has Pelosi. If Trump undergoes
treatments that limit his ability to perform the duties of the presidency, he
could use the mechanism provided under Section 3 of the 25th amendment to
temporarily transfer power to the vice president, Hudak wrote.
President Trump, at 'serious risk' of COVID-19
complications according to experts, takes experimental drug
Abby Haglage/Yahoo/October 03/2020
Hours after taking to Twitter to announce that both he and the first lady had
tested positive for COVID-19, President Donald Trump was hospitalized on Friday
“out of an abundance of caution,” according to White House Press Secretary
Kayleigh McEnany.
On Friday, (after news broke that aide Hope Hicks tested positive) the president
was treated with an 8 gram dose of an “antibody cocktail” by the pharmaceutical
company Regeneron, according to a letter released by White House physician Dr.
Sean P. Conley, along with zinc, vitamin D and a heartburn medication and
aspirin. “As of this afternoon, the president remains fatigued but in good
spirits,” the doctor wrote. However, as a “precautionary measure,” Trump was
flown to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Md. for,
according to the White House, “the next few days.”
Melania Trump is experiencing a mild cough and a headache and the rest of the
Trump family tested negative for COVID-19, said Conley. In an afternoon tweet,
Eric Trump called his father “a true warrior” and asked for prayers from the
public. The president himself tweeted out an brief video saying, “I think I am
doing very well.”
On Tuesday, Regeneron shared in a press release that in a seamless medical
trial, the drug showed signs of reducing a patient’s viral load (the amount of
virus particles), symptoms in non-hospitalized patients and the number of
medical visits by providing antibodies in patients who haven’t produced their
own. The experimental treatment, administered via injection or intravenously,
has not been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and is not
generally available. However, Regeneron’s co-founder Dr. Leonard S. Schleifer
told the New York Times that Trump’s medical team sought permission to use the
drug, a request that was approved by the FDA. Schliefer added that using the
experimental drug wasn’t too unusual however, “When it’s the president of the
United States, of course, that gets — obviously — gets our attention.”
While individuals of all ages can develop severe illness from COVID-19, experts
say Trump’s physical size and age put him at a much elevated risk of
complications from the virus. According to the Mayo Clinic, these complications
include “pneumonia and trouble breathing, organ failure, heart problems, acute
respiratory distress syndrome, blood clots, acute kidney injury and other viral
and bacterial infections.”
President Trump tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday, one day after
appearing at a campaign rally in Minnesota, pictured above. Here's why he's at
serious risk of severe illness. (Photo by Mandel Ngan/AFP)
President Trump tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday, one day after
appearing at a campaign rally in Minnesota, pictured above. Here's why he's at
serious risk of severe illness. (Photo by Mandel Ngan/AFP)
To be sure, Trump’s chances of recovery are still high. According to the Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention’s most recent data, of the 392,916 people
between the ages of 65 to 74 who have contracted COVID-19, 31,284 have died.
That means Trump, who is 74 and considered obese, has roughly a 90 percent
chance of survival. But experts say it’s important that he — and others with
similar risk factors — take the virus seriously.
“He’s at serious risk; this is not a joke,” says Yahoo Life Medical Contributor
Dr. Dara Kass. The CDC notes that obesity can triple the risk of hospitalization
for those with COVID-19. But more recent research has painted an even more grim
picture. A study published in the journal Wiley in late August found that people
with obesity are 113 percent more likely to be hospitalized, 74 percent more
likely to be admitted to an intensive care unit and 48 percent more likely to
die.
Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease expert and senior scholar at the Johns
Hopkins Center for Health Security, says that those with obesity are less
equipped to fight off disease. “Obesity itself is a metabolic condition where
you have derangements in your metabolism and less physiological reserve,” says
Adalja. “You have less lung capacity and in many cohort studies of individuals
with COVID-19, those two factors have prominently been displayed as markers for
risk for severe illness.”
Obesity, however, isn’t the only challenge Trump faces. The CDC states that
eight in 10 of the more than 200,000 Americans who have died of COVID-19 have
been over the age of 65. At 74, Trump is 90 times more likely to die than
someone 18 to 29, and eight times more likely to be hospitalized. “Age over 70
is a significant factor for mortality,” says Kass.
As in obese people, much of this boils down to physiological reserve, which the
National Institutes of Health defines as “the ability of an organ to
successfully return to its original physiological state following repeated
episodes of stress.” Adalja says older people have “less physiological” reserves
and that “their immune system doesn’t function as well.”
Kass says it could be other factors too. “It may have to do with receptors in
their body that increase the effect of the virus, making their immune systems
unable to fight it off — as opposed to the fact that their immune systems
themselves are at fault,” says Kass. “It may be why children don’t have as
serious a reaction. We don’t know, but what we know is that elderly and obese
patients are at the highest risk.”
Despite his health conditions and age, Trump — who contracted the virus at a
point in the pandemic where treatments are available — remains at low risk of
death. “There’s not really any reports that he’s severely symptomatic,” says
Adalja. “Most people, even in that age group with those risk factors, will
recover without need for hospitalization. He’s not the first 74-year-old obese
person to get COVID-19, and although they’re at higher risk for severe disease,
that’s not an inevitable outcome of it.”
McEnany said Friday that Trump was experiencing “mild symptoms,” reportedly
including fever, congestion, cough and fatigue, but Kass says that the frequency
of testing at the White House means officials may have detected the virus at a
presymptomatic phase.
“There’s a reason to believe that he is at risk for developing symptoms, and so
we need to not overinterpret the course right now,” says Kass. “The course for
this president is going to be very different than other people. Normally a
regular 74-year-old man would either get tested only after an exposure ... or
when his symptoms were severe enough to go to the doctor. We don’t know what’s
going to happen with Trump. All we know is that he is at risk.”
Given this, Kass says, Trump and those with similar risk factors need to take
the virus seriously: “They need to rest, they need the hydrate, they need to be
very acutely aware of their conditions. Somebody who is trying to minimize their
condition or believes that positive thinking can affect their condition without
acknowledging the risks and the science would be a very big concern to me.”
Coronavirus: Trump went through ‘very concerning’ period,
next 48 hours critical
The Associated Press/Saturday 03 October 2020
President Donald Trump went through a “very concerning” period Friday and the
next 48 hours will be critical in terms of his care as he battles the
coronavirus at a military hospital, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said
Saturday.
The comments came after it was revealed that Trump was administered supplemental
oxygen Friday morning at the White House before he was transported to the
hospital, although staff insisted he had only mild symptoms.
Visit our dedicated coronavirus site here for all the latest updates.
Trump's doctors, for their part, painted a rosy picture of the president’s
health in a press conference at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.
But the briefing by Navy Commander Dr. Sean Conley and other doctors raised more
questions than it answered.
Conley left murky the issue of whether the president needed supplemental oxygen
and declined to discuss exactly when he fell ill. Conley also revealed that
Trump began exhibiting “clinical indications” of COVID-19 on Thursday afternoon,
earlier than previously known.
According to a person familiar with Trump’s condition, Trump was administered
oxygen at the White House on Friday before he was transported to the military
hospital. The person was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke to The
Associated Press on condition of anonymity,
Conley, updating the nation on the president’s condition from Walter Reed on
Saturday afternoon, said Trump had been fever-free for 24 hours.
While Conley said the president was not currently on oxygen, he refused to say
whether the president had ever been on oxygen, despite repeated questioning.
“Thursday no oxygen. None at this moment. And yesterday with the team, while we
were all here, he was not on oxygen,” Conley said. He said that Trump’s
symptoms, including a cough and nasal congestion “are now resolving and
improving.”“He’s in exceptionally good spirits,” said another doctor, Sean
Dooley. Trump is 74 years old and clinically obese, putting him at higher risk
of serious complications from a virus that has infected more than 7 million
people nationwide and killed more than 200,000 people in the US.
The administration has consistently been less than transparent about the
president’s health as the virus spread inside the White House. Aides declined to
share basic health information about the president, including a full accounting
of his symptoms, what tests he’s undertaken and the results. The first word that
a close aide to Trump had been infected came from the media, not the White
House.
In a memo released late Friday, Conley did report that Trump had been treated at
the hospital with remdesivir, an antiviral medication, after taking another
experimental drug at the White House. He added that Trump is “doing very well”
and is “not requiring any supplemental oxygen.”
Conley declined to say when Trump had last been tested before he was confirmed
to have COVID-19 late Thursday. He initially suggested that Trump was 72 hours
into the diagnosis, putting the confirmation of the infection to Wednesday.
Conley later clarified that Trump was administered an accurate test for the
virus on Thursday afternoon, after White House aide Hope Hicks was confirmed to
be positive and Trump exhibited unspecified “clinical indications” of the virus.
The White House said Trump was expected to stay at the hospital for “a few days”
and he would continue to work from the hospital’s presidential suite, which is
equipped to allow him to keep up his official duties. In addition to
accessibility to tests and equipment, the decision was made, at least in part,
with the understanding that moving him to the hospital later, if he took a turn
for the worse, could send a worrying signal.
On Saturday, Conley said Trump’s blood oxygen level is 96 percent, which is in
the normal range. The two experimental drugs he has received, given through an
IV, have shown some promise against COVID-19. On Friday, he was given a single
dose of a drug Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. is testing to supply antibodies to
help his immune system fight the virus.
Friday night, he began a five-day course of remdesivir, a Gilead Sciences drug
currently used for moderately and severely ill patients. The drugs work in
different ways -- the antibodies help the immune system rid the body of virus
and remdesivir curbs the virus’ ability to multiply.
“We’re maximizing all aspects of his care,” attacking the virus in multiple
ways, Conley said. “I didn’t want to hold anything back if there was any
possibility it would add value to his care.”
Exhausted Armenians gather at Karabakh border after fleeing
fighting
AFP/Sunday 04 October 2020
With dark circles under their eyes and worried looks, dozens of people are
gathered at Armenia's border with Nagorno-Karabakh, trying to get a lift in one
of the passing cars.
"Are you going to Yerevan?" they ask, desperate to get to the Armenian capital
after escaping the fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces over the
disputed region. Entire families have arrived in Goris, a border town in
southeastern Armenia, fleeing a fresh outbreak of the fighting over the region,
which erupted last Sunday and has so far left more than 200 dead. The clashes
have intensified in recent days, with the regional capital Stepanakert under
heavy rocket and artillery fire. Many of the city's more than 50,000 residents
have fled to Goris as a first step to reaching Yerevan, 350 kilometers (220
miles) to the northwest. Cars and trucks are depositing them at the entrance to
the city, in front of a grey Soviet-style hotel, a few steps from a neon-lit gas
station. There, they gather looking for a ride, a friend -- any way of reaching
the safety of Yerevan. Women, many of them visibly exhausted, sitting on their
bags, their children playing nearby. The men look for opportunities for a ride
among the passing vehicles, taxis or sometimes the purple public buses that the
authorities are sending to fetch them. "How many are you? Do you want us to take
you?" asks Ani, a 31-year-old who arrived in her green Clio from Yerevan.
She works as a journalist but dropped everything to rush to the border. "I
didn't have the distance I needed to do my job," she says. "I told them 'forget
about me'. "There are hundreds of displaced people arriving from Stepanakert
where the bombing was heavy today. We have to help them, one way or another." In
Yerevan, those fleeing the fighting stay with friends and family or are put up
in hotels and schools free of charge. Authorities are collecting food, clothing,
money and even toys for them. "The whole country is on the front. It has always
been like this in the difficult moments of our history," says Ani.
For now, the number of people fleeing is limited -- they leave by car, a few at
a time, with no signs yet of a mass exodus. But the military trucks and
ambulances that pass them on the road are a reminder that this conflict is far
from over.
At least 64 Turkey-backed Syrians dead in Nagorno-Karabakh:
Monitor
AFP/Saturday 03 October 2020
At least 64 pro-Turkey Syrian fighters have been killed in clashes between
Armenian and Azerbaijani forces over Nagorno-Karabakh, a Britain-based war
monitor said in a new toll Saturday. They were among the 1,200 combatants from
pro-Ankara Syrian factions that Turkey has sent to fight for the Azeris since
last week, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, updating its earlier
figure of 850. At least 36 of them have been killed in clashes in the past 48
hours alone, the Observatory added, increasing a previous toll of 28 to 64.
Armenia has accused Turkey of dispatching Syrian fighters to fight on the Azeri
side in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, despite Azerbaijani and Turkish
denials. French President Emmanuel Macron demanded Friday that Turkey explain
what he said was the arrival of extremist fighters in Azerbaijan.
Intelligence reports had established that 300 Syrian fighters drawn from
“jihadist groups” from the Syrian city of Aleppo had passed through Gaziantep in
Turkey en route for Azerbaijan, he said. Erdogan says he stands by the
‘oppressed’ in the Caucasus amid ongoing clashes In a statement on Saturday, the
Syrian foreign ministry warned of “blatant Turkish interference” in the
conflict. “It aims to inflame the situation in a manner that is consistent with
the Turkish regime's behavior in more than one country, where it has created
tension and fueled the fire of sedition,” said the statement, carried by the
official SANA news agency. Clashes have raged between Armenian and Azerbaijani
forces since Sunday over Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian province that
broke away from Baku in a bitterly fought war in the 1990s.
Welder killed in explosion in Iranian industrial town: Mehr news agency
AFP/Saturday 03 October 2020
An explosion killed a worker in an industrial zone in Iran's central Isfahan
province on Saturday, state news agency IRNA reported. The blast struck on the
Razi industrial estate in Shahreza county and was caused by a welder working on
an oil tank, local crisis management chief Mansour Shishehforoush told IRNA.
“There was no oil inside the tank, but the welding caused the gas built up in it
to explode.”Firefighters later brought the blaze under control, IRNA said,
adding that Razi is “one of the largest chemical production industrial zones” in
Iran. There has been a spate of fires and explosions at military and civilian
sites across Iran since June. A July blast caused damage at Iran's Natanz
uranium enrichment plant. Iranian authorities initially said it was an accident
before later blaming sabotage.
President Rouhani: Iran’s economy is in a better position
than Germany’s
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Saturday 03 October 2020
Iran’s economy is in a better state than Germany’s, Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani claimed on Saturday, days after the Iranian rial fell to a new low
against the dollar. “Germany’s economy is shrinking, and their economic growth
is negative,” the official IRNA news agency quoted Rouhani as saying.
“Germany is a developed country that is not under sanctions … our economy will
certainly be in a better position [than Germany’s],” Rouhani, who was speaking
at a meeting of Iran's anti-coronavirus task force, added. The Iranian economy
has been hit hard since US President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear
deal and reimposed sanctions on Tehran in 2018. Rising inflation, growing
unemployment, a slump in the rial and the coronavirus crisis have deepened
Iran’s economic woes. On Thursday, the US dollar was selling for as much as
300,000 rials on the unofficial market, according to data from foreign exchange
website Bonbast.com. Iran’s oil sales, the country’s main source of revenues,
have declined by around 90 percent since the reintroduction of US sanctions. The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its April report that Iran’s economy
will shrink by six percent in 2020 and the country’s economic growth will be
negative for the third year in a row. Iran’s economic growth was negative 7.6
percent in 2019 and negative 5.4 percent in 2018, according to the IMF.
French-Iranian academic Fariba Adelkhah temporarily
released in Iran: Laywer
AFP/Saturday 03 October 2020
French-Iranian academic Fariba Adelkhah has been temporarily released from
prison and is currently in Tehran with an electronic bracelet, her lawyer told
AFP on Saturday. Adelkhah “was released with an electronic bracelet. She is now
with her family in Tehran,” attorney Saeed Dehghan said, adding that “we hope
that this temporary release will become final.”A specialist in Shia Islam and a
research director at Sciences Po university in Paris, Adelkhah was arrested in
June last year. She was sentenced on May 16 to five years in prison for
“gathering and conspiring against national security.”Her trial started on March
3 with the last hearing held on April 19 at Tehran’s Revolutionary Court. She is
a citizen of Iran and France, but Tehran does not recognise dual nationality.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron said in early June that Adelkhah had been
“arbitrarily arrested in Iran” and called her detainment “unacceptable.”Iran has
slammed Paris’ calls for Adelkhah’s release as “interference” in the Islamic
republic’s internal affairs. Adelkhah’s French colleague and partner Roland
Marchal, who was detained along with her, was released in March in an apparent
prisoner swap. Marchal was freed after France released Iranian engineer Jallal
Rohollahnejad, who faced extradition to the United States over accusations he
violated US sanctions against Iran.
Jordan’s King accepts resignation of PM Omar al-Razzaz
Reuters/Saturday 03 October 2020
Jordan’s King Abdullah on Saturday accepted the resignation of Prime Minister
Omar al-Razzaz and asked him to stay on as a caretaker premier until he
designates a successor, state media said. The monarch dissolved parliament last
Sunday at the end of its four-year term in a move that under constitutional
rules meant the government must resign within a week. King Abdullah appointed
al-Razzaz in the summer of 2018 to defuse the biggest protests in years over tax
increases pushed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to reduce Jordan’s
large public debt. Constitutionally, most powers rest with the king, who
appoints governments and approves legislation. A new government will pave the
way for the November vote, as the country grapples with the rapid spread of
COVID-19 infections over the last month that the last government had been widely
criticized for. The monarch hopes a wider shake-up and a new assembly could ease
popular disenchantment over economic hardships worsened by the blow of COVID-19
and limits on civil and political freedoms under emergency laws. Jordan’s
economy is expected to shrink by 6 percent this year as it tackles its worst
economic crisis in many years, with unemployment and poverty aggravated by the
pandemic.
Tributes pour in as spiritual leader of Iraq’s Yazidi
minority dies at 87
AFP, Sheikhan, Iraq/October 03 2020
Iraq’s Yazidi minority paid its last respects to its spiritual leader on Friday
as tributes poured in for the cleric, who guided his flock through the horrors
of ISIS militant group occupation and its aftermath. Baba Sheikh Khurto Hajji
Ismail died late on Thursday at the age of 87, his office said. The funeral was
held the very next day in accordance with Yazidi tradition, marking the start of
a week’s mourning after which his son will be anointed as successor. Hundreds of
Yazidi men and women turned out in traditional dress for the funeral procession
in the town of Sheikhan, north of Iraq’s second city Mosul. Tributes poured in
for Sheikh Baba, whose pragmatic leadership is credited with helping the
community to avoid collapse after the massacres, forced marriage and sex slavery
of militant rule. Yazidis are born into their faith and must marry within it --
conversions are not permitted and traditionally those who marry outside are
excommunicated. But after thousands of Yazidi women were abducted by ISIS and
forcibly married off to its Sunni Muslim fighters, Baba Sheikh preached
compassion for those who survived, arguing that they should not be treated as
outcasts for the horrors they had endured.
Nadia Murad, 26, who was subjected to life as a sex slave under ISIS and won the
Nobel Peace Prize for her work highlighting the horrors of the group’s rule,
said the community had lost a “beacon of light,” who “treated Yazidi survivors
with love & respect.”
A “man of peace” The Iraqi government paid tribute to a “man of peace” who had
preached “brotherhood and friendship.”The Yazidis, who are nearly all
Kurdish-speaking, form a minority within a minority and have faced repeated
bouts of persecution throughout their 4,000-year history.
But they have clung on in two isolated enclaves inside Iraq, one around Sheikhan
in the Nineveh Plain and one in the Sinjar Mountains of the northwest. When ISIS
marched into the Yazidi villages of the Sinjar Mountains in 2014, there were
550,000 Yazidis nationwide out of a worldwide total of 1.5 million, including
neighboring countries and the diaspora. Three years later, thousands had died
and nearly 100,000 had fled abroad. More than 6,400 Yazidi women were kidnapped,
of whom barely half survived to return home, according to Kurdish authorities.
The fate of many of the rest may never be known. Thousands more were displaced
inside Iraq and authorities have struggled to persuade them to return to their
ancestral homes. Alongside their spiritual leader, the Yazidis also have a
secular leader or prince. The current prince, Hazem Tahsin Bek, took up the post
in July last year.
France’s Macron targets Islamist ‘ghettoisation’ of society
The Arab News/October 03/2020
PARIS—President Emmanuel Macron, trying to rid France of what authorities call a
“parallel society” of radical Muslims thriving outside the values of the nation,
laid out a series of measures on Friday in a proposed law that would disrupt the
education, finances and other means of indoctrination of the vulnerable.
Macron has coined the term “separatism” to describe the underworld that thrives
in some neighbourhoods around France where activists from the Muslim community
with a radical vision of Islam take control of the local population to inculcate
their extremist beliefs.
Macron stressed in a speech that stigmatising French Muslims would be falling
into a “trap” laid by radicals.
He blamed France itself for organising the “ghettoisation” of a population that
could easily fall prey to the preaching of those whose goal is to substitute
their laws for those of the nation, and reiterated that secularism is the
“cement” of France. He spoke in Les Mureaux, a working-class town west of Paris,
after meeting with the mayor, Francois Garay, who is largely credited with
building projects that help bring the Muslim population into the mainstream. He
said that 70 people from the region of Les Yvelines, where the town is located,
travelled to Syria and Iraq.
Macron’s gave his speech while a trial is underway in Paris over the deadly
January 2015 attacks on satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo and a kosher
supermarket by French-born Islamic extremists. Last week, a man from Pakistan
stabbed two people near Charlie Hebdo’s former offices in anger over its
re-publication of caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. Macron noted both cases.
The president laid out a five-point plan aimed at upending the world that lets
those who promote a radical brand of Islam thrive, notably via associations or
home schools that steep members and students in radical ideology.
France has the largest Muslim population in Western Europe with up to 5 million
members, and Islam is the country’s No. 2 religion.
The proposed bill, which would go to parliament early next year, would require
all children from the age of 3 to attend French schools, and allow distance
learning only for medical reasons. Associations, which receive state funding,
would be made accountable for their spending, their sometimes invisible leaders
and be forced to reimburse misused funds.
Macron called France’s schools “the heart of secularism (where) children become
citizens.”Authorities contend that the vector for inculcating Islamist activists
with an extremist ideology was once the mosque but, today, the main vector is
schools.
The proposed measures nevertheless address mosques, which Macron said are
sometimes subject to hostile takeovers, as well as imams to keep houses of
prayer and preachers out of the control of people who use religion for their own
ends. He was referring to efforts by Muslim Brotherhood sympathisers and
Salafists to use places of worship as venues for radicalisation of the Muslim
community. “In a few days, you can see radical Islamists…take control of
associations (running mosques) and all their finances. That won’t happen again,”
the French president said. “We’re going to install an anti-putsch system, very
robust, in the law,” Macron said without elaborating.
The bill, which is to be sent to religious leaders for review this month, also
includes putting a gradual end to the long-standing practice of importing imams
from elsewhere, notably Turkey, Algeria and Morocco, and instead training imams
in France to assure there are enough. A Muslim organisation that serves as an
official conduit to French leaders is to take part in the project.
The rector of the Grand Mosque of Paris cautioned against mixing all Muslims in
France with the “separatism question.”
“For those who want it to be believed that Islam is Islamism, and the reverse,
there is indeed a distinction between the Muslim religion and the Islamist
ideology,” Chems-Eddine Hafiz wrote in a commentary in the newspaper Le Monde.
However, the rector threw his support behind the initiative — on condition it’s
not used as a communications ploy.
“For nearly 40 years, a ghettoisation has progressively installed itself, first
urban, then sociological, before becoming ideological and identitarian,” Hafiz,
the Paris mosque rector, wrote in his commentary.
Authorities say there are all kinds of “separatisms,” but Macron said the others
are “marginal” while radical Islam is a danger to France because “it sometimes
translates into a counter-society.”
For Macron, a perverse version of the religion has penetrated French society,
including public services, from Paris’ Charles de Gaulle airport to the
transport system. He said some bus drivers have been known to bar women with
short skirts from getting aboard.
The proposed law would also ban “certificates of virginity” provided by doctors
to some Muslim women ahead of marriage. Macron, who has made gender equality a
priority of his presidency, said the documents are offensive to women’s
dignity.He conceded the fight he proposes would be long because “what took
decades to build won’t be put down in a day.”
Israel Prepares for Arrival of New Upgraded Warships to
'Deter Hizbullah'
Associated Press/October 03/2020
After a coronavirus-related delay, Israel's navy is preparing for the
long-awaited arrival of its next generation of missile boats — giving it a
powerful new tool to defend its strategic natural gas industry from the threat
of Hizbullah. The first missile boat of "Project Magen" is scheduled to arrive
by early December, with three more of the German-made corvettes scheduled to
arrive over the next two years. It's bigger. It's newer. It's faster. It's
better," said Rear Adm. Eyal Harel, head of Israeli naval operations, during a
rare tour of Israel's offshore Leviathan gas field. A massive gas platform stood
just a few hundred meters (yards) away. The vessels, commonly known as the "Saar
6," will be at the forefront of Israeli efforts to protect its 200-mile
exclusive economic zone. The natural gas industry, seen as a national asset, is
at the heart of those efforts. Over a decade after finding sizeable reserves off
its Mediterranean coast, Israel now generates some 60% of its electricity from
natural gas, according to the national electric company, and has begun to export
gas to its Arab neighbors Jordan and Egypt. Israel is also pursuing a project
with Greece and Cyprus in hopes of creating an Eastern Mediterranean gas
pipeline to Europe. With so much at stake, Hizbullah has identified Israeli gas
installations as high-priority targets. In a 2018 speech, the group's leader,
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, said he could destroy Israeli gas assets "within a few
hours" if there was a government order to do so. Hizbullah is part of an
alliance that dominates Lebanese politics and government.
Israel takes such threats seriously. During a monthlong war in 2006, a Hizbullah
cruise-missile strike on an Israeli "Saar 5" warship killed four soldiers. Lt.
Col. Eitan Paz, a flotilla commander, said the new vessels would bring a welcome
upgrade to the aging Saar 5's, which are nearly 30 years old.
He said they would be equipped with newer and more powerful radar and other
electronic systems, and handle rough seas much better than their predecessors.
The 90-meter (295-foot) vessels are equipped with rocket and missile defense
systems, anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles, torpedoes and an upgraded
launching pad for Israel's newest attack helicopters. "Physically, it's not much
bigger than the Saar 5," he said. "But it adds all of these systems." He said
the first boat, the INS Magen, or "Shield," was supposed to arrive in August,
but delivery was delayed due to the coronavirus. He said it would be deployed
immediately and reach full operational capacity within several months after it
is outfitted with Israeli weapons systems in several phases. Since the 2006 war,
Hizbullah is believed to have greatly beefed up its arsenal with some 150,000
rockets and missiles, according to Israeli estimates. Israel also accuses the
group of trying to develop precision-guided missiles, which would make that
arsenal far more lethal. Harel said the navy's main concerns are Chinese-made
C-802 missiles, like the one that hit the Israeli ship in 2006, and Russian-made
"Yakhont" anti-ship missiles possessed by Hizbullah's ally Syria. But he said
the military has learned lessons from that war. "We are prepared and we will be
even more prepared when we have the new battleships," he said. Israel agreed to
buy the vessels in a 2015 deal valued at roughly 430 million euros ($480 million
at the time), with the German government covering about one quarter of the cost.
Several Israeli businessmen, including confidants of Israel's Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu and a former commander of the navy, are suspects in a graft
scandal connected to the purchase of the warships and submarines from German
conglomerate ThyssenKrupp.
Netanyahu, who is on trial in three other corruption cases, was not named as a
suspect in the scandal and no one active in the Israeli navy has been connected.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 03-04/2020
Lebanon and Israel, Officially Enemies, Agree to Talks on
Sea Border
Ben Hubbard and Adam Rasgon/The New York Times/October 03/2020
BEIRUT, Lebanon — Lebanon and Israel have agreed to open their first
negotiations on nonsecurity issues in three decades, a rare if limited
breakthrough between hostile neighbors that are technically at war and have no
formal diplomatic relations.
Talks aimed at ending an enduring dispute over their maritime boundary in a
patch of the Mediterranean Sea rich with natural gas are slated to begin this
month, officials from both countries said Thursday.
The talks, to be held under the auspices of the United Nations and mediated by
the United States, were announced just weeks after the United Arab Emirates and
Bahrain normalized relations with Israel, becoming the third and fourth Arab
countries to do so. But officials involved in the Mediterranean Sea talks said a
diplomatic accord between Lebanon and Israel was not on the table.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo congratulated the parties on the agreement,
saying in a statement that the discussions “have the potential to yield greater
stability, security and prosperity for Lebanese and Israeli citizens alike.”
The United States has sought to mediate the dispute for years, with little
progress. But senior United States officials, including Mr. Pompeo, visited
Lebanon this year and have repeatedly raised the issue with Lebanese officials.
The breakthrough came as Lebanon faces a punishing economic crisis and could
benefit from the undersea gas. Its currency has lost 80 percent of its value
over the past year, poverty and unemployment have spiked, and its debt-to-G.D.P.
ratio is about 170 percent, one of the highest in the world.
Nabih Berri, the speaker of Lebanon’s Parliament and the country’s senior Shiite
politician, announced the agreement in Beirut, suggesting that gas from near the
disputed area could “help us pay our debt.”
The dispute is over 330 square miles of the Mediterranean that Israel and
Lebanon both claim to be within their exclusive economic zones.
The stakes of the disagreement have risen as Israel and Cyprus have begun
exploiting offshore gas in the eastern Mediterranean, leaving the Lebanese
searching for a similar, and much-needed, boost to their economy.
Israel’s offshore gas has enhanced its energy independence and earned it export
contracts with Jordan and Egypt worth billions of dollars, although demand has
flagged this year because of the coronavirus pandemic.
The amount of gas in Lebanon’s offshore zone remains unclear, although the
government has signed exploration contracts with foreign firms.
Israel’s Energy Ministry said in a statement that the talks would be the first
negotiations between the two countries on a civilian matter in 30 years.
Officials from the two countries meet regularly under the auspices of the United
Nations in southern Lebanon to address security issues along their shared
border.
That appeared to be the template adopted for the maritime border talks, which
will be held in a United Nations headquarters in the Lebanese town of Naqura,
near the Israeli border, David Schenker, the U.S. assistant secretary for near
eastern affairs, told reporters.
The talks were expected to start the week of Oct. 12, he said, although the
exact date had not been determined. Nor was it clear how long they would last.
“We hope Lebanon will be a global capital of natural gas and will develop all of
its natural resources,” said Yuval Steinitz, Israel’s energy minister, who will
lead the Israeli delegation in the talks. “We don’t want to see Lebanon
collapse.”
He did not expect the talks to lead to swift breakthroughs on other issues
dividing the two countries.
“I don’t think Lebanon is going to become Abu Dhabi because of this,” he said,
referring to the capital of the Emirates. “I don’t have any illusions.”
It was not immediately clear who President Michel Aoun of Lebanon would appoint
to represent Lebanon.
Israeli forces invaded Lebanon twice to try to uproot Palestinian militants
during Lebanon’s 15-year civil war, which ended in 1990, and Israel occupied a
chunk of southern Lebanon until 2000. In 2006, Israel fought a bloody 34-day war
with Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group and political party that the United
States, Israel and other countries consider a terrorist organization.
Since then, the border has been mostly quiet, but the rancor remains. Lebanese
television stations often refer to Israel as “the enemy” and most Lebanese avoid
mixing with Israelis abroad for fear of being accused of treason at home.
Mr. Berri, the speaker of Lebanon’s Parliament, heads a political party closely
allied with Hezbollah, and the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned one of his
top aides, Ali Hassan Khalil, last month for supporting Hezbollah.
The mechanics and scope of the talks appeared to be unsettled.
Mr. Steinitz, the Israeli energy minister, said the talks would be “face to
face,” while Lebanese officials said they would not speak directly to Israelis.
Assaf Orion, a retired Israeli brigadier general who took part in postwar talks
with Lebanon starting in 2006, said that when those meetings began, the Lebanese
“made a fuss” about sitting in the same room as the Israelis but then settled
for separate Israeli and Lebanese tables, with a U.N. table in the middle.
Initially, the Lebanese refused to speak directly to the Israelis, telling the
United Nations officials what message to pass along, even if the Israelis could
hear the Lebanese speaking, he said. Eventually, they started speaking to each
other directly.
Mr. Berri said the negotiations would also touch on the disputed land border,
while Israel and the United States mentioned only maritime borders.
In response to a question, Mr. Schenker said the United States would welcome any
steps by Israel and Lebanon to reach agreement on the land border.
The new talks were significant, Mr. Orion said, because they would go beyond
security issues. “This is the first time we are going beyond the narrow scope of
military, security and defense issues and moving to a wider scope of energy and
border discussions,” he said.
The resulting agreement could even exclude offshore facilities from being
targeted in war, he said.
*Ben Hubbard reported from Beirut, and Adam Rasgon from Jerusalem. Kareem
Chehayeb contributed reporting from Beirut.
A complicated region and its complicated war
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/October 03, 2020
When the most recent fighting broke out in Nagorno-Karabakh, many were quick to
take sides. Stepping back from emotions, a century of history is woven into the
interaction between the various players: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Tukey, Russia,
European nations and the US, with oil and gas thrown into a complicated mix. Its
roots may be traced back to a century ago, when Joseph Stalin declared
Nagorno-Karabakh an oblast, or autonomous administrative unit, within the Soviet
Republic of Azerbaijan. Conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has been
simmering and at times erupting since the collapse of the Soviet Union, when
Armenia claimed Nagorno-Karabakh but it was legally determined to be an
autonomous region inside Azerbaijan. It declared in 1988 that it wanted to unite
with Armenia, which Azerbaijan vetoed. Various skirmishes and wars led to about
230,000 ethnic Armenians and 800,000 ethnic Azeris being displaced. After the
biggest clashes in the mid 1990s, Russia brokered a cease-fire, and the
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group has been
trying to mediate ever since. It would be easier to deal only with the two
combatants; alas, Russia Turkey the US and oil are part of the equation.
The presidents of Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,
witnessed by a supportive US, signed a declaration in 1998 for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
pipeline to bring oil from the Caspian Sea in Azerbaijan to the Mediterranean
port of Ceyhan in Turkey, circumventing the Bosphorus. Wary of the simmering
conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the pipeline took a northern route
through Georgia, circumventing Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, which considerably
increased the price of the project.
Turkey was happy to secure energy supplies and to put itself into geopolitical
pole position. BP was the main principal among Western oil companies. The US
favored any project that diversified energy supplies to Europe away from Russia.
The project had its pitfalls as well, especially when the Georgian president
Mikheil Saakashvili demanded more money just before first oil was to flow
westward. Since 2007, the South Caucasus pipeline has transported gas from
Azerbaijan to Turkey, running parallel to Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan.
The economic and political interests are convoluted. Russia always supported
Armenia. However, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is not as close to
Russia as his predecessor was. Armenia does, however, still receive Russian
weapons at a discount, which does not prevent the Kremlin from selling its
weaponry at full price to Baku.
The world community as a whole has no interest in a further conflict spiralling
out of control, especially not while it needs to deal with a coronavirus
pandemic.
When hostilities broke out, Turkey immediately sided with Azerbaijan, which is a
fellow Turkic and Muslim country, as well as a supplier of energy and therefore
a strategic business partner.
Turkey’s history with Armenians does not make the situation easier. Between 1915
and 1924 the Ottoman empire expelled and killed 1.5 million Armenians, in what
the international community labelled a genocide. This is not something Armenia
will ever be willing to forget and it represents considerable historical
baggage, complicating the situation further.
While Russia sides in principle with Azerbaijan, it is not quite as clear cut as
that. Overall Russia’s resources are stretched amid the pandemic and Moscow is
not really looking for another conflict with its southern neighbor Turkey, who
already stands on opposite sides in Syria and Libya. This goes a long way to
explain why Moscow is eager to mediate.
The US is divided. While Armenians are successful in lobbying Congress,
Azerbaijan and big oil tend to carry some weight in the executive branch,
especially under the current administration.
Where does this leave us in respect to the conflict? It is important to mediate
between the parties. French president Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor
Angela Merkel have tried to do so. The OSCE is certainly the right multilateral
framework to tee up structured talks.
The EU cannot ignore the goings on in what is its near neighborhood. Europe’s
relationship with Turkey is close to breaking point. However, the EU has every
interest in diversified oil and gas supplies, for which it needs Turkey. More
important, it needs Ankara when it comes to refugees: Let us not forget that
Turkey houses more than 3 million Syrian refugees against a promised 6 billion
euros from Brussels. Closed borders between Turkey and Greece are the only thing
standing between these refugees and the Balkans route. During last week’s summit
the EU had strong words for Turkey’s activities in the Mediterranean. It decided
to take a two-tracked approach between potential sanctions and offering a chance
for closer co-operation — leaving Ankara to chose the course of action.
It is difficult to apportion blame, because the situation in the Caucasus is not
black or white, and neither of the adversaries is exactly on the side of the
angels. A century of history between the parties complicates the situation
further. One thing is for certain, though; the world community as a whole has no
interest in a further conflict spiralling out of control, especially not while
it needs to deal with a coronavirus pandemic.
*Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in
investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business
consultancy Meyer Resources. Twitter: @MeyerResources
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not
necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view
Why there (probably) won’t be a war in the Med
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/October 03, 2020
The common perception of events in the eastern Mediterranean is of fault lines
between two camps, formed as a result of pre-emptive Turkish insistence on its
rights to recently discovered and vast undersea energy resources. However,
developments in these troubled waters are not so simplistic or one-dimensional.
Tensions are indeed high, buoyed by a ceaseless flow of rhetoric and brazen
naval maneuvering from the Aegean Sea to Cyprus. If some analyses are to be
believed, the six-way standoff — Athens urged on by Paris alongside Cairo
supported by Abu Dhabi, against Ankara allied with Doha and Tripoli — is inching
closer to a dreaded head-scratcher of a hot war.
But the reality on the ground speaks more of the unlikelihood of such a scenario
in favor of a drawn out yet peaceful series of talks — first to deescalate, then
to map the way forward. Brinkmanship aside, there is no upside to any country if
the eastern Mediterranean becomes another venue for open geopolitical
conflict.The arguments for such an assertion are simple, but — strangely — not
often discussed.
Before recent escalations, most of the nations in the region had close ties even
while competing for influence and economic superiority. Turkey and Egypt are no
strangers to conflicting views or competing objectives, being populous nations
with large militaries and significant interests in dominating eastern
Mediterranean affairs. It is unsurprising, therefore, to see Cairo in the
driver's seat, forming what appears to be an anti-Turkey coalition in the
Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EGMF) sponsored by one of Ankara’s bitterest
Middle East rivals, the UAE. Yet Egypt continues to share intelligence with
Ankara.
Additionally, even if Cairo persists in deepening ties with the UAE, and loathes
Turkish ambitions and maneuvering in Libya as well as off its coast, Egypt has
refrained from signing a full maritime deal with Greece. Such a commitment would
jeopardize future possibilities of a deal with Turkey — despite the obvious
convergence of interests between Cairo and Athens with regard to eastern
Mediterranean undersea resources. On the other hand, Turkey has recently
increased imports of Egyptian gas, making it the foremost trade partner on the
African continent with more than $5 billion in bilateral trade. It is unlikely
that either country would want to undo such ties, especially when factoring in
Egyptian plans to sign a maritime delimitation agreement with Turkey at one
point.
Greek and Turkish tensions are not new but US retrenchment from the region
robbed the two countries of a capable arbiter, leaving a vacuum that all but
ensured occasional sparks will turn into dangerous conflagrations.
Even among Gulf states, the eastern Mediterranean is not a simple issue of “us
vs. them,” but a complex, interlinked affair, with little room for
muscle-flexing and brinkmanship. Instead, what is needed is the ability to
exploit mutual interests, undistracted by rhetoric and divisive posturing, to
build on existing ties. Consider, for instance, that the UAE’s DP World operates
ports in Turkey and Cyprus, one of the focal points of escalation in this
increasingly volatile region. Differing ideologies and geopolitical designs for
the Middle East have widened rifts between Abu Dhabi and Ankara despite the
almost billion-dollar trade surplus between the two countries, favoring the UAE.
On the other hand, Turkish ally Qatar was not only the first Gulf state to open
an embassy in Cyprus, Greece’s eastern Mediterranean partner, but owns 40
percent of Cyprus’s Block 10 natural gas field — the third largest natural gas
discovery, which turned Cyprus into a major energy player. In addition, as much
as 30 percent of the investments in Egypt’s refinery sector are Qatari-funded.
These are just a few of the ties between the parties, which make talk of
imminent war alarmist.
Diplomacy and dialogue are still very much in play and countries appear primed
for such an eventuality. After all, both Greece and Turkey have said dialogue,
not war, is their objective. Existing ties and cautious planning by countries on
both sides of eastern Mediterranean tensions should therefore be low-hanging
fruit for EU foreign policy in serious need of a boost.
Greek and Turkish tensions are not new but US retrenchment from the region
robbed the two countries of a capable arbiter, leaving a vacuum that all but
ensured occasional sparks will turn into dangerous conflagrations. The
involvement of an EU member and the eastern Mediterranean’s proximity to Europe
require Brussels to find its feet and fill in where Washington has vacated.
However, the whiff of division and failure to establish consensus within the
union will doom any efforts by the remaining pillars of the bloc — Germany,
France and Italy — to find a sustainable, permanent solution agreeable to
Greece, Cyprus and Turkey. Currently, an anti-Turkey coalition of France, Cyprus
and Greece has elected for a combative, reactionary stance, aiming for targeted
sanctions against Turkey for deploying research vessels in Greek and Cypriot
waters, in violation of their sovereignty. Turkey’s maneuvering in the region
has not won Ankara any points among Europeans, making it difficult for Turkish
calls for direct dialogue to cut through the thickening fog.
Worryingly, French anti-Turkey rhetoric is making it challenging for the EU to
coalesce behind a unified stance beyond immigration concerns, which require a
conciliatory posture with Ankara. The French have since militarized the standoff
and raised the stakes in what would have been an achievable settlement.
President Macron’s endgame appears to be more focused on securing UAE
cooperation to protect its interests in Africa. After all, eastern Mediterranean
gas or the now delayed pipeline are not strategic infrastructure necessities for
French energy security. In contrast, Italy and Germany have elected for
neutrality and maintaining diplomatic channels to both camps; the former for the
sake of its energy needs, and the latter more concerned about immigration as
well as keeping the peace in an EU neighborhood.
Unfortunately, the EU’s approach is still crippled by its failure to acknowledge
the eastern Mediterranean conflict as an extension of a much wider Middle East
geopolitical rivalry. While the core issues are the maximalist narratives,
maritime boundaries, sovereignty and yet to be adjudicated interpretations of
international maritime law, it does not end there. It is not to say the conflict
cannot be resolved, only that a narrow focus on the core issues would be
inadequate, and the sooner the EU acknowledges that, the likelier it is to find
a permanent solution while the weapons are still kept at bay.
*Hafed Al-Ghwell is a non-resident senior fellow with the Foreign Policy
Institute at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International
Studies. He is also senior adviser at the international economic consultancy
Maxwell Stamp and at the geopolitical risk advisory firm Oxford Analytica, a
member of the Strategic Advisory Solutions International Group in Washington DC
and a former adviser to the board of the World Bank Group. Twitter: @HafedAlGhwell
Changing of the guard in Germany
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/October 03, 2020
While Saturday’s 30th anniversary of German reunification was a major moment for
the EU’s most populous state, its eyes are just as much focused on the US
presidential election. The Donald Trump-Joe Biden contest may be the most
important election for US-German relations, and the broader transatlantic
alliance, for at least a generation.
If Biden wins, a significant degree of normality will be restored, although
relations may still not be “business as usual.” If Trump prevails, all bets
could be off for at least the next four years. On trade, for example, the US
president called Germany “very bad” this year because of its significant trade
surplus, and singled out key sectors such as the car industry for tariffs.
Moreover, further significant US troop cuts in Germany are also possible after
the 12,000 announced in August.
And former Trump national security adviser John Bolton has indicated the
president could even pull Washington out of NATO, in part because of Berlin’s
failure to spend the required 2 percent of GDP on defense.
These brewing tensions have already poisoned German public opinion of Trump;
only 10 percent of the population have confidence in him “to do the right thing
in world affairs,” compared with more than 90 percent for Barack Obama when
Germans were asked the same question from 2009 to 2016.
Germans, like many others across the world, increasingly fear that 2016 was a
historical turning point in the three decades since unification. That, of
course, was the year of Trump’s election and the UK’s voeg to leave the EU, an
institution many Germans cherish. What was so striking about both these events
was that two countries known for political stability and being traditional rule
makers in the international order made the world a significantly more uncertain
place. By the end of this year we will know whether Trump has a further four
years in office, and if London leaves the EU with or without a trade agreement.
If Trump is re-elected, the populist, nationalist tide he represents will secure
another major victory while the center ground internationalist agenda that
Merkel believes is key for Germany’s future will take another hit.
A further source of angst for many Germans is that, amid this international
uncertainty, Angela Merkel’s chancellorship will end next year after more than a
decade and a half. She has long been the most important political leader in
continental Europe. Three US presidents (George Bush, Obama and Trump), four
French presidents (Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy, Francois Hollande and
Emmanuel Macron), and five UK prime ministers (Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, David
Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson) have served during her watch.
By the end of her fourth term, she will have matched Helmut Kohl’s 16 years of
office from 1982 to 1998 and surpassed Konrad Adenauer’s from 1949 to 1963.
Merkel will sit behind only Otto von Bismarck’s record of almost two decades in
power from 1871–90.
It remains unclear who (if anyone) in Germany can fill her political shoes. This
is a worry not just there, but also across Europe and the wider world too, given
that the country is the anchor (alongside France under Macron) in the 27-member
EU, and in the era of Trump, she is perhaps the leading international proponent
of liberal democracy.
Since she became head of the CDU, there have been a series of disagreements with
the US over issues from the Middle East, including the Iraq war, through to the
rise of China with US-German differences emerging over the best way to engage
Beijing. Yet until the Trump presidency, the two powers generally continued to
agree on a broad range of issues such as international trade, backing for a
peace process between Israel and the Palestinians along Oslo principles, and
support for the international rules-based system and the supranational
organizations that make it work.
Today, however, many more of these key principles are being undermined by
Trump’s agenda to disrupt the established Western order that Merkel has come to
embody. And if this uncertainty were not enough, it has coincided with a wider
range of foreign policy challenges for Germany, including an increasing
assertive Russia, and instability in Europe’s wider “near abroad” of the Middle
East and Africa.
As Germans reflect on these issues this symbolic weekend, the implications
matter much more to Europe and the world at large too. For if Trump is
re-elected, the populist, nationalist tide he represents will secure another
major victory while the center ground internationalist agenda that Merkel
believes is key for Germany’s future will take another hit.
* Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics