LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 29/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
If the owner of the house had known in what part of the night the thief was coming, he would have stayed awake and would not have let his house be broken into
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 24/32-44/:”‘From the fig tree learn its lesson: as soon as its branch becomes tender and puts forth its leaves, you know that summer is near. So also, when you see all these things, you know that he is near, at the very gates. Truly I tell you, this generation will not pass away until all these things have taken place. Heaven and earth will pass away, but my words will not pass away. ‘But about that day and hour no one knows, neither the angels of heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father. For as the days of Noah were, so will be the coming of the Son of Man. For as in those days before the flood they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day Noah entered the ark, and they knew nothing until the flood came and swept them all away, so too will be the coming of the Son of Man. Then two will be in the field; one will be taken and one will be left. Two women will be grinding meal together; one will be taken and one will be left. Keep awake therefore, for you do not know on what day your Lord is coming.But understand this: if the owner of the house had known in what part of the night the thief was coming, he would have stayed awake and would not have let his house be broken into. Therefore you also must be ready, for the Son of Man is coming at an unexpected hour.””

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 28-29/2019
Germany could ban the entirety of Hezbollah next week
Crisis-hit Lebanon faces petrol station strike
Bassil Says Bloc Signed Draft Law for Tracking Bank Transfers
Arab League Says Ready to Help Solve Lebanon Crisis
Aoun to Preside over Financial Meeting Friday
Khatib Chances Reportedly Surge as He Says Hariri Talks Not Negative
Lebanon Pays Back $1.5 Billion Eurobond amid Economic Crisis
Job Losses and Pay Cuts as Lebanon's Economy Crumbles
Exchange Shops Suspend Work Friday in Latest Lebanon Strikes
Qassem Condemns Violence 'by Any Side', Disavows Attacks on Protesters
Report: AMAL Says Ain el-Rummaneh-Shiyyah Incidents Not Partisan
Oil Trader Sues BankMed in U.S. Court
Lebanese parliamentary panel to approve 2020 budget this year, committee head says

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 28-29/2019
Iran: France’s consideration of nuclear deal dispute mechanism ‘irresponsible’
Iran Slams France's 'Irresponsible' Comments on Nuclear Deal Mechanism
Moscow Intensifies Dialogue with Kurds to Push for Deal with Damascus
Iraqi forces kill 22 protesters in Nassiriya after Iranian consulate torched
Iraqi forces kill 32 protesters after Iranian consulate torched
Iraq Death Toll Rises as Military Sends Commanders to Provinces
Canada condemns escalating violence in Iraq
Russia tries to block new Syria chemical weapons probe
Israel Demolishes Homes of 4 Suspected Palestinian Attackers
Palestine's Abbas to Set Elections Date After His Return to Ramallah
Israel Endorses Hamas’ Statement That 'Rebellious Organizations' Fired Rockets From Gaza
2 Turkish Soldiers Killed in Attack on Syria Border
Turkey reneges on NATO’s Baltic defense plan to extort US concessions in Syria
Iraq’s Prime Minister fires new commander after 22 killed in crackdown: state TV
Turkey to send 11 ISIS detainees back to France in December: Interior Minister
Turkey and Libya sign deal on maritime zones in the Mediterranean
Trump Makes Surprise Trip to Afghanistan

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 28-29/2019
Germany could ban the entirety of Hezbollah next week/Jamie Prentis/The National/November 28/ 2019
Hezbollah Has Trapped Itself/Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/November 28/2019
Lebanon’s FPM, Hezbollah Hold Onto Hariri/Paula Astih/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 28/2019
Decision time: Lebanon faces significant debt crunch/Leila Molana-Allen/Al Jazeera/November 28/2019
Lebanon: Protesters cautious after clashes with sectarian groups/Leila Molana-Allen/Al Jazeera/November 28/2019
Lebanon pays $1.5bn debt to ease financial tension/Dana Khraiche/Bloomberg/November 28/2019
Experts urge IMF bailout to contain Lebanon's financial crisis/Georgi Azar/Annahar/November 28/2019
*Turkey reneges on NATO’s Baltic defense plan to extort US concessions in Syria/DEBKAfile/November 28/2019
Iranians: “Why is the world silent as our government is murdering us?”/Uzay Bulut/INN/November 28/2019
The Self-Censorship Trap: Some Artists Walking Right Into It/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/November 28/2019
The US Deals With a New Iranian Threat/Bobby Ghosh/Bloomberg/November,27/2019
U.S. Sanctions Iran’s Minister of Information and Communications Technology/Tzvi Kahn/FDD/November 28/2019
Troubles between Congress and religious freedom/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/November 26, 2019
Tehran's leaders will be tempted to attack Gulf states again to divert attention from their domestic woes/Con Coughlin/The National/November 28/2019
Realism in short supply as UK election approaches/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/November 28/2019
Iran needs to be stopped in its tracks/Dr. Hamdan Al-Shehri/Arab News/November 28/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 28-29/2019
Germany could ban the entirety of Hezbollah next week
Jamie Prentis/The National/November 28/ 2019
Political wing of Iran-backed group has not been proscribed by European Union
Germany is expected to designate the entirety of Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation in a move that would extend restrictions on all activities of the Lebanese militant group. The European Union has proscribed Hezbollah’s military wing but not its political arm despite its widespread anti-Semitism.Der Spiegel reported that the foreign, justice and interior ministries had agreed on the move, which could be officially announced next week. Germany has previously regarded dealing with Hezbollah’s political faction as necessary because of its influence on Lebanon’s government. Hezbollah is accused of plotting and carrying out terror attacks across the globe. Iran has been widely criticised for its long-standing backing of the group. In September, the US ambassador to Germany urged the German government to ban Hezbollah. "The EU maintains an artificial differentiation between the military and political arm of Hezbollah," Richard Grenell said. He described it as “Iran’s most-violent terrorist representatives”. If enforced, the designation would put Hezbollah on a par with ISIS and ban the flying of its flag. Earlier this year Britain proscribed the entirety of Hezbollah because of “its attempts to destabilise the fragile situation in the Middle East,” the-then interior minister Sajid Javid said. We are no longer able to distinguish between their already banned military wing and the political party,” he added.

Crisis-hit Lebanon faces petrol station strike
Reuters, BeirutThursday, 28 November 2019
Petrol stations in Lebanon will begin an open-ended strike on Thursday nationwide, a union representative said on Wednesday amid the country’s worst economic crisis in decades. Protests since October 17 have pulled Lebanon deeper into economic crisis, worsening a hard currency crunch that has hit importers and raised fears of price hikes and shortages. In a statement carried on state news agency NNA, the petrol stations union said it was striking because of losses incurred from being forced to purchase dollars on a parallel market, the primary source of hard currency in economic hard times. Petrol stations must collect payments from customers in Lebanese pounds but pay private fuel importers in dollars. The cost of dollars on the parallel market has surged since the start of protests, hovering currently at about 40 percent more than the official pegged rate, set at 1507.5 Lebanese pounds since 1997. There were queues at some petrol stations in Beirut late on Wednesday but the situation remained relatively calm.The central bank said last month that it would prioritize foreign currency reserves for fuel, medicine and wheat, but buyers tapping the facility are still required to supply 15 percent of their own dollar needs.
Lebanon’s energy ministry sets guidelines for gasoline price levels. The ministry said it would test a state tender for gasoline next month after fuel distributors threatened to raise prices. The Lebanese Economic Bodies, a private sector group that includes industrialists and bankers, called off a separate three-day strike that was also to start on Thursday, citing tough economic conditions and the need for employees to collect end-of-month salaries.

Bassil Says Bloc Signed Draft Law for Tracking Bank Transfers
Naharnet/November 28/2019
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Thrusday announced that the MPs of the Strong Lebanon bloc have signed a draft law on tracking the movement of bank transfers. The draft law is “aimed at modifying the jurisdiction of the Special Investigation Commission,” Bassil said at a press conference, referring to a body affiliated with the central bank. “It can be quicker and more effective and it might yield instant results,” Bassil noted. He added: “When we lifted our bank secrecy as MPs and ministers, we communicated with Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh and the Special Investigation Commission to demand that secrecy be lifted off the movement of our bank transfers and this is where the idea of this law came from.” “As a result of its work and investigations, this (new) commission would issue its rulings, slap sanctions and recover funds to the treasury without any excuse about any immunity and the result will be the recovery of the stolen funds,” Bassil explained. “This law would show how much political forces are committed (to fighting corruption) and we hope it will be approved quickly,” the FPM chief said, noting that the protests that have been rocking the country since October 17 are “a key catalyst in the fight against corruption.” As for the issue of forming a new government, Bassil said he will comment “next week.”“The Strong Lebanon bloc will have a stance very soon,” he added.

Arab League Says Ready to Help Solve Lebanon Crisis
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 28 November, 2019
The Arab League expressed its willingness to help Lebanon solve its political stalemate, after weeks of mass protests and amid the country´s worst financial crisis in decades. The office of Lebanon´s president, Michel Aoun, said he discussed the situation Thursday with the visiting Arab League assistant secretary-general, Hossam Zaki. Lebanon´s prime minister, Saad Hariri, resigned late last month in response to nationwide protests that erupted on Oct. 17. They´re targeting the country´s entire political class. Protesters have resorted to road closures and other tactics in an effort to pressure politicians into responding to their demands for a new government. Aoun has not set a date for binding consultations with heads of parliamentary blocs to name a new premier. Political factions remain deadlocked over the new Cabinet´s composition.

Aoun to Preside over Financial Meeting Friday
Naharnet/November 28/2019
A financial meeting will be held Friday at the presidential palace in Baabda, the Presidency announced on Thursday. The meeting will be chaired by President Michel Aoun and attended by the caretaker ministers of finance, economy and investment, the central bank governor, the head of the Association of Banks, the head of the committee overseeing banks, and caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s financial adviser Nadim al-Munla. The Presidency said the meeting will tackle the financial situations in the country. The meeting comes as Lebanon grapples with widespread anti-government protests since October 17, a free-falling economy, and an escalating liquidity crisis. The dollar exchange rate in the parallel market has shot up from the pegged rate of 1,507 pounds to the greenback to around 2,250. Fear of financial collapse caused a capital flight and some $800 million appear to have left the country from October 15 to November 7, a period during which the banks were mostly closed.

Khatib Chances Reportedly Surge as He Says Hariri Talks Not Negative
Naharnet/November 28/2019
The chances of the engineer Samir Khatib to lead the new government have surged and the picture will become clearer over the coming few hours, which might witness a complete agreement over the shape of the government and its premier, LBCI television reported Thursday. Khatib himself meanwhile issued a statement about his meeting on Wednesday with caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri. “Some media outlets have circulated reports suggesting that the meeting that was held yesterday was negative… Engineer Khatib stresses that he sensed from PM Hariri complete support and responsiveness,” his office said.

Lebanon Pays Back $1.5 Billion Eurobond amid Economic Crisis
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 28/2019
Lebanon paid back a Eurobond worth $1.5 billion that was scheduled to mature Thursday, a Finance Ministry official said, pacifying concerns of a first-ever default on its debt amid the worst financial crisis in three decades. The tiny Mediterranean country's economic emergency has ignited nationwide protests against widespread corruption and mismanagement, bringing the country to a standstill for over a month. The protests were initially sparked by new taxes, but have snowballed into calls for the entire political elite to step aside. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned in late October, meeting a key demand of the protesters. But that has plunged the country into further uncertainty, with no clear path to resolving its economic and political problems. The Eurobond announcement came as a top Arab League official arrived in Lebanon, expressing readiness to help the country solve its political stalemate.
The repayment was being widely watched in Lebanon, which has one of the highest debt ratios in the world, standing at $86 billion or 150% of the GDP. There were concerns that Lebanon, which always paid back its debt on time, might default. Lebanon has in recent weeks imposed unprecedented capital controls. The Finance Ministry official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, gave no further details about the repayment. Local media reported that the payment was made from the reserves of the Central Bank.
"This is a positive message to international ratings agencies and lenders that Lebanon did not default in the past and will not default in 2020," said economist Ghazi Wazni. He added that Eurobonds worth $2.5 billion are scheduled to mature next year, the first payments will come in March and it will be worth $1.3 billion. Earlier this month, international ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded Lebanon's credit rating to 'CCC/C' from 'B-/B'.
The agency said the outlook for Lebanon was negative and "reflects the risk to the sovereign's creditworthiness from rising financial and monetary pressures tied to widespread protests and the resignation of the government." Earlier this year, Fitch Ratings downgraded Lebanon's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to CCC from B- while Moody's downgraded Lebanon's issuer ratings to Caa1 from B3 while changing the outlook to stable from negative. The office of President Michel Aoun said he discussed political and economic conditions with visiting Arab League assistant secretary general, Hossam Zaki. Aoun has not set a date for binding consultations with heads of parliamentary blocs to name a new premier. Hariri, who was Aoun's and Hizbullah's favorite to lead a new Cabinet, withdrew his candidacy on Tuesday.
Politicians have failed to agree on the shape and form of a new government. Hariri had insisted on heading a government of technocrats, while his opponents, including Hizbullah, want a Cabinet made up of both experts and politicians. Meanwhile, the protesters are demanding that the country's ruling elite be replaced, blaming them for failures in years that followed the 1975-90 civil war. The protests have remained overwhelmingly peaceful, resorting to road closures and other tactics in an effort to pressure politicians into responding to their demands.
But in recent days, scuffles broke out in Beirut and other areas between protesters and Aoun and Hizbullah supporters, leaving dozens of people injured. As tempers flare, there are real concerns Lebanon could be sliding toward a prolonged period of instability.
"The current situation cannot take conditions and counter-conditions. We should all work together to get out of the crisis in what serves the interest of the Lebanese people," Aoun said in comments released by his office Thursday. He added that Arab support "should be translated into actual steps regarding assistance to improve the deteriorating economic conditions."
Zaki told reporters said there must be solution for the Cabinet formation crisis, adding that "it is important so that Lebanon avoids negative effects on its economic conditions and civil peace." Scores of Lebanese businesses have closed in recent months and thousands of employees were either laid off or are getting half their salaries amid the crisis. Local banks have imposed capital controls worsening the economic conditions amid a liquidity crisis and shortage in U.S. dollars. Since 1997, the Central Bank has kept the pound stable at 1,507 to the dollar thanks to heavy borrowing at high interest rates but on the black market, the price of the dollar reached in recent days 2,100 Lebanese liras, a 40 percent over the official price.The private sector had planned a strike Thursday but later suspended it while gas stations started an open-ended strike protesting dollar shortages to cover their imports. Exchange shops will also hold a one-day strike on Saturday to protest charges by some that accuse them of being behind the rise of the dollar against the local currency. Later on Thursday, hundreds of protesters held a sit-in outside the Central Bank in Beirut's Hamra area blaming bank governor Riad Salameh's policies for worsening economic and financial conditions in the country.

Job Losses and Pay Cuts as Lebanon's Economy Crumbles
Agence France Presse/November 28/2019
Weeks into a protest movement partly driven by a collapsing economy, Lebanese interior architect Laeticia Nicolas was called in by her boss and told she was fired. "There had been fewer and fewer projects for a year," said the 28-year-old, who since October 17 has taken part in unprecedented anti-government protests sweeping the country. "Before the revolution began, they warned us they'd be paying just half our salaries in exchange for reducing working hours," she said. But as the protests gained momentum, he downsized his team. Nicolas was informed of the bad news at the end of the month when she received her salary. "It's not because of the revolution, but it may well have accelerated things," she said. After years of political turmoil, the Lebanese economy is in a sharp downturn, banks have restricted access to dollars while prices have risen. Amid the crisis, thousands of Lebanese say their jobs are under threat. Activists have denounced what they call illegal lay-offs and urged the labor ministry to intervene.
Some people, like Nicolas, have lost their jobs altogether; others have been told to work part-time for a fraction of their original salary. A woman who asked to be identified as "Mary" was among those forced to take a pay cut. For 16 years she has been a saleswoman at an upper-end women's clothing shop, and now she fears her job may be on the line. "Since the start of November we've been taking two extra days off a week," said the 46-year-old, who asked that her real name not be used in order to protect her job."They said they would have to pay us half our salaries."
'We fear the worst'
She said that she and around 20 colleagues did not object "because we fear the worst, and no one is going to risk losing their job in such circumstances.""It's been bad for months. In recent days, the shop takings haven't even been 50,000 Lebanese pounds," or around 30 euros, Mary said. Economic growth in Lebanon has been battered by repeated political deadlock in recent years, compounded by the eight-year war in neighboring Syria. Successive cabinets have failed to implement desperately needed reforms to redress a floundering economy heavily reliant on tourism and services. The World Bank projected negative growth of 0.2 percent in Lebanon for 2019, but now warns the recession could be even worse. It has urged that a new cabinet be swiftly formed, after the government stepped down less than two weeks into the protests, to avoid more Lebanese becoming poor. Around a third of Lebanese live in poverty, and that figure could soon rise to half, according to the World Bank. Unemployment, already above 30 percent for young people, would also go up, it said. A group of Lebanese banks and private businesses also warned of bleak times ahead. "Thousands of companies are threatened with closure, and tens of thousands of employees and workers risk losing their jobs," they said. The union of restaurant and bar owners has said 265 establishments have closed already, and that figure could reach 465 by the end of the year.
- Begging for payment -
In the month before the protests, banks began restricting access to dollars, sparking a greenback liquidity crisis. Bilal Dandashli, who heads a small road safety equipment company he founded in the 1990s, said he was struggling. "We can no longer import supplies from abroad," he said. The Lebanese pound is pegged at around 1,500 pounds to the dollar, and both are used interchangeably in everyday transactions. But caps on dollar withdrawals have forced people to resort to moneychangers, sending the unofficial exchange rate soaring to more than 2,200. To make matters worse, Dandashli said customers were also not paying their debts. "It's like begging for our own money," he said. "One person owes me $20,000, and today he turns up with a check for $1,000. How are we supposed to continue like this?"Dandashli says he fears for the future of his 10 employees, whom he has continued to pay in full despite no work for two months. "I could hang on for another few months or close. But it would break my heart to see everything I've built up over the years collapse."In the latest sign of things getting worse, petrol station owners began an open-ended strike on Thursday because of losses caused by the plunging pound against the dollar. Nicolas, the newly unemployed interior architect, is now applying for jobs and considering a proposal to work in Kuwait. "If travelling is the only option, I'll have to take it," she said through tears. "I'll start over. Just not here, as here there is no hope."

Exchange Shops Suspend Work Friday in Latest Lebanon Strikes
Naharnet/November 28/2019
The Syndicate of Money Exchange houses in Lebanon said they will go on strike on Friday in protest at accusations blaming them for the dollar crisis. “The accusations are “unrealistic" said the syndicate and “desperatly aim to blame us for the crisis, therefore we will go on strike on Friday.”
They denounced the price depreciation of dollar to the Lebanese pound as the country grapples with nationwide protests and an aggravating economic crisis. They appealed to the political and financial authorities to find quick solutions that contribute to reducing the decline in the exchange rate of the Lebanese pound. The Lebanese pound has been pegged to the greenback at around 1,500 for two decades and the currencies are used interchangeably in daily life. But amid a deepening economic crisis, banks have gradually been reducing access to dollars in recent months, forcing importers to resort to money changers offering a higher exchange rate and sparking price hikes. On the open market, the dollar has been selling for 2,000 pounds. On Wednesday, the Syndicate of Gas Station Owners declared an open-ended strike in protest at the ongoing dollar shortage crisis.
The Economic Committees, a grouping of Lebanon’s business leaders and owners of major firms, on Wednesday called off a strike they had called for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. The government stepped down less than two weeks into the nationwide demonstrations, but a new cabinet has not been formed.

Qassem Condemns Violence 'by Any Side', Disavows Attacks on Protesters
Naharnet/November 28/2019
Hizbullah deputy chief Sheikh Naim Qassem on Thursday said he condemns violence by any side following the latest incidents in the protest-hit country. “The right to assembly in squares and to demonstrating to raise the voice high and pressure officials is legitimate and must be protected, but road blocking and the obstruction of people’s lives is rejected, because citizens would be punishing other citizens instead of pressuring the ruling authorities,” Qassem said. Condemning “all forms of cursing, insults, assault and stone-throwing by any side,” Qassem noted that Hizbullah “has confronted sectarian and regional strife and sought to contain it on many occasions throughout its political history” and will remain ready to “face it and prevent it.”“Some have criticized us for failing to condemn some incidents, and this is deplorable, seeing as our stance is well-known. We support the right to peaceful and civilized expression and the right to political disagreement and we announce our stances bravely and clearly, but we can’t comment on every incident given the multitude and similarity of incidents, which are being repeated daily,” Hizbullah number two added. “Our stance is clear and this is enough… and everyone knows that we had nothing to do with all the incidents that involved chaos and attacks and we will maintain this stance,” Qassem went on to say. Supporters of Hizbullah and the AMAL Movement have recently attacked protesters in central Beirut, Tyre and Baalbek. They have also staged an angry rally in the southern Beirut suburb of Msharrafiyeh and engaged in stone-throwing skirmishes with residents of Ain el-Rummaneh.

Report: AMAL Says Ain el-Rummaneh-Shiyyah Incidents Not Partisan
Agence France PresseNaharnet/November 28/2019
The AMAL Movement of Speaker Nabih Berri asserted on Thursday that the latest clashes in Beirut suburbs of Ain el-Rummaneh and Shiyyah did not erupt between partisans of AMAL and the Lebanese Forces, asserting that “coexistence” is a red line, Saudi Asharq al-Awsat reported on Thursday.
“Incidents in Ain el-Rummaneh and Shiyyah were immediately contained and things returned to normalcy quickly,” an AMAL source told the daily on condition of anonymity. Adding that the part had played a role to “extinguish” the unrest because “coexistence is a red line.”
“What happened in Ain el-Rummaneh and Shiyyah was not at all a clash between AMAL and Lebanese Forces (partisans). It was a clash between two streets that had been addressed with wisdom and dialogue,” the source told the daily. In a move to assert solidarity between the two neighborhoods, Mothers and residents of Ain el-Rummaneh and Shiyyah on Wednesday marched together in a solidarity rally, following overnight unrest in the area. The gathering came at the invitation of Lebanese mothers and women who called for rejecting “all the scenes that the streets witnessed over the past two days” and denouncing “segregation and the return to the rhetoric of frontlines and war.”Overnight confrontations in several Lebanese regions, mostly fistfights and stone throwing, injured dozens of people. Stone-throwing clashes took place between young men from Shiyyah and the adjacent Ain el-Rummaneh and were quickly contained by the army. The trouble began after a video circulated on WhatsApp showing Ain el-Rummaneh residents insulting Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. The clip was later shown to be several years old. Tensions regularly erupt in this area which saw the first clashes of the 1975-1990 civil war. A shooting in Ain el-Rummaneh in April 1975 triggered the 15-year war that killed nearly 150,000 people.

Oil Trader Sues BankMed in U.S. Court
Agence France PresseNaharnet/November 28/2019
An international oil trader is suing a Lebanese bank in the United States over failing to release $1 billion in deposits, court documents showed, charges the banking institution denied on Thursday. IMMS has filed a suit against BankMed in the Supreme Court of the State of New York over the "brazen theft of more than $1 billion", according to court documents dated November 22 and seen by AFP. The lawsuit comes as Lebanon grapples with widespread anti-government protests since October 17, a free-falling economy, and an escalating liquidity crisis. The oil trader, which is incorporated in Belize, said it asked to withdraw its money on November 8, and received no response for several days, according to the court documents. It said the bank on November 12 informed it was terminating overdraft and letter of credit facilities due to "the prevailing circumstances and to the material adverse change in the economic condition of Lebanon and the Lebanese financial markets". BankMed on Thursday strongly denied the allegations. "The $1 billion deposit is a blocked deposit by instructions of IMMS maturing in about 2 years from now," it said. "Between October 30 and November 12, 2019, BankMed discovered material breaches of contract and attempts by IMMS to direct funds due to BankMed overseas," it said. "BankMed opposed such attempts by IMMS and took appropriate actions." It said the banking contract was subject to Lebanese law and that it would submit its response to a court hearing in Beirut next month, without giving a specific date. BankMed is chaired by Mohammed Hariri, a cousin of outgoing Prime Minister Saad Hariri's late father Rafik. Nazek Hariri, the widow of the embattled premier's father, sits on the bank's board of directors -- as does the current interior minister, Raya al-Hassan. Since September, debt-saddled Lebanon has had a liquidity crisis, with banks rationing the withdrawal of dollars. The exchange rate in the parallel market has shot up from the pegged rate of 1,507 pounds to a dollar to more than 2,000.

Lebanese parliamentary panel to approve 2020 budget this year, committee head says
Arab News/November 28/2019
BEIRUT: The Lebanese parliament’s budget and finance committee will approve the 2020 budget by the end of the year and the next government must adopt it, committee head Ibrahim Kanaan said on Thursday.
Lebanon has been grappling with the worst economic conditions in decades, amid protests that prompted Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri to resign on Oct. 29, leaving the country in politically deadlocked.
Kanaan said the committee must quickly finalize a budget needed to restore confidence in the country and take account of bruising economic conditions. “Before the end of next month, the holiday season ... we will have finished the debate and approval of the 2020 budget,” Kanaan said in a televised news conference. “It is not possible for the new government not to adopt this budget because when this budget is approved it will become a law.”Kanaan said treasury revenues had been almost non-existent for the last 45 days, but assured Lebanese that public-sector salaries would be paid.
Lebanon is hoping to enact urgent economic reforms that can convince donors to disburse some $11 billion in aid pledged at a conference last year. Meanwhile, Lebanon paid back a Eurobond worth $1.5 billion that was scheduled to mature Thursday, a Finance Ministry official said, pacifying concerns of a first-ever default on its debt amid the worst financial crisis in three decades.
The tiny Mediterranean country’s economic emergency has ignited nationwide protests against widespread corruption and mismanagement, bringing the country to a standstill for over a month. The protests were initially sparked by new taxes, but have snowballed into calls for the entire political elite to step aside.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned in late October, meeting a key demand of the protesters. But that has plunged the country into further uncertainty, with no clear path to resolving its economic and political problems. The Eurobond announcement came as a top Arab League official arrived in Lebanon, expressing readiness to help the country solve its political stalemate.
The repayment was being widely watched in Lebanon, which has one of the highest debt ratios in the world, standing at $86 billion or 150% of the GDP. There were concerns that Lebanon, which always paid back its debt on time, might default. Lebanon has in recent weeks imposed unprecedented capital controls.The Finance Ministry official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, gave no further details about the repayment. Local media reported that the payment was made from the reserves of the Central Bank. The office of Lebanon’s president, Michel Aoun, said he discussed political and economic conditions with visiting Arab League assistant secretary general, Hossam Zaki. Aoun has not set a date for binding consultations with heads of parliamentary blocs to name a new premier. Hariri, who was Aoun’s and the militant group Hezbollah’s favorite to lead a new Cabinet, withdrew his candidacy on Tuesday.
Politicians have failed to agree on the shape and form of a new government. Hariri had insisted on heading a government of technocrats, while his opponents, including Hezbollah, want a Cabinet made up of both experts and politicians. Furthermore, the protesters are demanding that the country’s ruling elite be replaced, blaming them for failures in years that followed the 1975-90 civil war. The protests have remained overwhelmingly peaceful, resorting to road closures and other tactics in an effort to pressure politicians into responding to their demands. But in recent days, scuffles broke out in Beirut and other areas between protesters and Aoun and Hezbollah supporters, leaving dozens of people injured. As tempers flare, there are real concerns Lebanon could be sliding toward a prolonged period of instability. “The current situation cannot take conditions and counter-conditions. We should all work together to get out of the crisis in what serves the interest of the Lebanese people,” Aoun said in comments released by his office Thursday. He added that Arab support “should be translated into actual steps regarding assistance to improve the deteriorating economic conditions.”
Zaki told reporters said there must be solution for the Cabinet formation crisis, adding that “it is important so that Lebanon avoids negative effects on its economic conditions and civil peace.”
Scores of Lebanese businesses have closed in recent months and thousands of employees were either laid off or are getting half their salaries amid the crisis. Local banks have imposed capital controls worsening the economic conditions amid a liquidity crisis and shortage in US dollars.
Since 1997, the Central Bank has kept the pound stable at 1,507 to the dollar thanks to heavy borrowing at high interest rates but on the black market, the price of the dollar reached in recent days 2,100 pounds, a 40 percent over the official price. * with AP

Hezbollah Has Trapped Itself
Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/November 28/2019
By trying to preserve a corrupt political order, the pro-Iranian party has become identified with it.
Since the start of the Lebanese uprising on October 17, Hezbollah has maneuvered itself into a terrible dilemma, one with potentially existential implications for the party.
Initially, Hezbollah understood that the widespread popular denunciation of the political class and its kleptocratic, poisonous management of Lebanon represented a threat to the system that had protected the party since 2005. However, its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, was careful not to take a sharp position against the protest movement, initially preferring to advise demonstrators to accept a gradual, institutional response to their grievances.
Nasrallah underestimated the lack of trust between the population and the political leadership. Moreover, demonstrators could see that the Hezbollah leader was only looking to buy time. When that effort failed, Nasrallah continued to push back against the protest movement, to no avail. He then engaged in a tactical rhetorical retreat, while deploying party militants to terrorize protestors. Again, this failed, heightening public criticism of Hezbollah, which was now seen as the main defender of a thoroughly discredited political order.
When caretaker prime minister Sa‘d al-Hariri resigned on October 29, he left the party hanging. Nasrallah had wanted Hariri to stay in office, but Hariri turned the tables, knowing this would lead to one of two outcomes: either he would be allowed to form a new government on his terms; or he would be prevented from doing so, forcing Hezbollah and its allies to form a government on their own while facing popular anger and a looming economic collapse.
Hariri maneuvered well. But last week, in the face of the refusal of Hezbollah and Michel Aoun’s and Gebran Bassil’s Free Patriotic Movement to allow him to establish a purely technocratic government—the demand of the protest movement—he withdrew from the race. By doing so, he again left Hezbollah in the lurch. The reason is that Hezbollah needs Hariri as prime minister. His presence would provide the party with valuable Sunni cover, while Hariri is also regarded as one of the few politicians with enough international credibility to bring money to Lebanon and act as an interlocutor with global financial institutions and investors.
In contrast, were Hezbollah to form a government of one political color with Aoun, Bassil, and the speaker of parliament, Nabih Berri, the consequences would be catastrophic. Such a government not only would be opposed by a majority of Lebanese, it would have no international weight and no latitude to negotiate a bailout for Lebanon. Worse, it is more than likely that the United States would consider such a government a Hezbollah operation, almost certainly opening up the party’s allies to U.S. economic sanctions.
Nor does Hezbollah have a military option to bring everyone into line. Even in Shi‘a areas the party has been loath to go too far in silencing protestors, and its ability to do so in Sunni, Christian, and Druze areas is nil. However, were it to try anything on that front, the country would descend into civil war. Hezbollah considers this the worst option of all, as it would neutralize the party as a proxy for Iran in the fight against Israel. So the most it has done is to deploy young thugs with its allies in the Amal movement to scare protestors. Except that the last time this happened the protestors fought back and Hezbollah and Amal came across looking like sectarian hoodlums. Soon, spokesmen for both parties were backtracking.
The latest idea for breaking out of the deadlock has been to propose that one Samir Khatib form a government. But that plan has been derailed reportedly because Hezbollah does not want a man who is largely unknown. Perhaps the party senses that Khatib won’t cut it with the protestors or even the Sunni community. He also doesn’t have the wherewithal to navigate Lebanon through the tidal wave of a financial breakdown, so that Hezbollah may still be looking to persuade Hariri to reverse his decision to not become prime minister.
It’s difficult to disagree with Hezbollah’s assessment, if that is indeed what it believes. It is dawning on everybody that Hariri is the only serious candidate available. His decision to withdraw from the race is looking increasingly like a tactical move to compel Hezbollah, Aoun, and Bassil to reach that conclusion.
Hezbollah will remain trapped if it refuses to show flexibility over a new government. By trying to preserve the foul system that is in place and protect its parasitic allies and their interests, the party is only accelerating the system’s demise. More damaging, if the system crumbles at a moment when Hezbollah is perceived as the strongest defender of the political class that brought about this calamity, the consequences could be far-reaching for the party.
Within a relatively short period of time, Lebanon will have no choice but to go to international financial institutions to secure capital for an economy that is in dire need of liquidity. The political class will have almost no maneuvering room to prevent such an outcome, as by then the Lebanese will be screaming. In fact, to delay outside intervention would probably be suicidal for both the political class and Hezbollah.
Once the International Monetary Fund imposes a reform package on Lebanon, the ability of the politicians to prevent it will be limited. There will be much suffering because IMF packages are never gentle. But the politicians will find it more difficult to steal and they will have no option other than to go along with IMF conditions if they want money. The nature of Lebanon’s political leadership will change because there will be a stern authority over the politicians’ heads.
Hezbollah knows this and hardly relishes such a result. But everything the party is doing makes it more probable. The only alternative, then, is to accept a credible government and hope it can work out a deal with the international community that focuses on economic reform, debt rescheduling, and measures avoiding severe austerity. The Lebanese may sacrifice for a government in which they can believe, but they have to be shown light at the end of the tunnel.
Much has been said of Nasrallah’s recent remarks that Lebanon had to consider alternative economic relations to those with Western countries, and his advice to his own community to bear the hardships of the economic situation. Both ideas show the extent to which Hezbollah’s leader is grasping at straws. China, Russia, and Iran are in no position to help Lebanon, nor do they have an incentive to do so. Moreover, Lebanese know that most economic power lies in the West.
As for the Shi‘a, they did not support Hezbollah to spend years in poverty. They always considered Hezbollah as a ticket to social promotion in the Lebanese state and a way out of their past impoverishment. Asking them to grit their teeth and bear it is hardly a good plan. Once the system folds, Nasrallah will have hundreds of thousands of coreligionists to feed, and the odds are more than even that a majority will soon blame Hezbollah for their predicament.
At the end of the long national trauma, what will Hezbollah be able to offer? Weapons? Resistance? Slogans? Of what value will they be as the Lebanese climb out of the abyss? Hezbollah doesn’t offer any serious remedies to the problems of a region marked by deteriorating living conditions, an increasingly young population without prospects of a prosperous future, and corrupt leaderships that have plundered and repressed their societies. This is a dramatic moment for the party, which finds itself the prisoner of a maelstrom of recrimination tearing across a region in full transformation.

Lebanon’s FPM, Hezbollah Hold Onto Hariri
Paula Astih/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 28/2019
Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) have insisted on nominating caretaker Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri to head the new government, stressing that he should have a role in providing a solution to the country’s economic and political crises. The two parties argued that the crisis has been the result of economic policies adopted by several governments over the past years. Ministerial sources close to President Michel Aoun told Asharq Al-Awsat that the insistence on Hariri was based on the certainty that he must assume the responsibility to finding solutions to the crises gripping the country, similar to other political parties. The sources added that Hezbollah and the FPM have underlined the need for Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt to also shoulder responsibility for the crises. Lebanon has been without a government since Hariri quit as prime minister on Oct. 29 following unprecedented demonstrations. No date has yet been set by Aoun, who is the FPM founder, for binding parliamentary consultations to name a new prime minister. Meanwhile, dozens of mothers gathered on Wednesday in a Beirut suburb to reject attempts of division and intimidation, following a night of sporadic confrontations between partisans of disputing political groups. Mothers and residents of Ain el-Rummaneh and Shiyyah marched together in a solidarity rally. The women called for rejecting “all the scenes that the streets witnessed over the past two days” and denouncing “the return to the rhetoric of frontlines and war.” Stone-throwing clashes took place on Tuesday night between young men from the two neighborhoods and were quickly contained by the army.  Also on Tuesday, dozens of FPM supporters organized a convoy to the village of Bikfaya, where residents are predominantly supporters of the Kataeb Party, to demonstrate near the house of former President Amin Gemayel. People in the area confronted the convoy and attacked a number of cars before the army intervened and restored security.
Lebanon pays $1.5bn debt to ease financial tension
Dana Khraiche/Bloomberg/November 28/2019
Lebanon has never defaulted, despite having one of the world's highest debt burdens.
Lebanon repaid a $1.5 billion Eurobond on Thursday, an official with knowledge of the matter said, buying the country time as speculation swirls over its ability to avoid a default during a political and economic crisis.
The Finance Ministry issued payment instructions to the central bank, also known as Banque du Liban, the official said on condition of anonymity. The next bond payment is scheduled for March, when a $1.2 billion Eurobond comes due.
Lebanon has never defaulted on its obligations despite struggling under one of the world's biggest debt burdens, and the central bank had repeatedly said it would cover the $1.5 billion bond. But weeks of nationwide protests that ousted the government saw credit risk surge and investor confidence slump.
The yield on the March 2020 bond rose as high as 105 percent last week from a mere 13 percent on October 17, when the demonstrations kicked off. Higher yields, and this month's record costs for insuring government debt, reflect concern the government may have to restructure sooner or later.
Foreign bondholders are estimated to hold $500 million of the repaid Eurobond, while the central bank has $600 million and the rest is most likely held by local banks, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch research note this week.
Day of reckoning
Lebanon is nearing its day of reckoning after years of overspending, borrowing and political paralysis, coupled with the crisis in neighbouring Syria that sent more than 1.5 million refugees into the tiny country.
With a current account deficit of over 25 percent of its gross domestic product, weak growth and debt that's reached 155 percent of the economy, the central bank tried to maintain financial stability throughout the years and carried out what it called financial engineering. The operation was meant to shore up reserves and raise the capital of local banks, the country's largest debt holders.
The protests were sparked by a government levy on phone calls such as those using the free WhatsApp service along with other tax measures. The demonstrations quickly turned against a ruling class accused of corruption. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned and politicians have been unable to agree on a new name to lead the next government.
US dollar shortage and Lebanon's economic crisis [2:29]
The central bank began rationing dollars even before the unrest ignited, pushing up demand for the foreign currency and causing the Lebanese pound to plummet on the black market. The move has stymied trade and imports in a country that's almost entirely reliant on foreign goods.
The central bank has said that it would supply dollars to the importers of fuel, wheat and pharmaceuticals and earlier this week added medical equipment to that list of essential goods.

Decision time: Lebanon faces significant debt crunch
Leila Molana-Allen/Al Jazeera/November 28/2019
The government faces three options as its debt repayment deadline looms: default, restructure or repay.
Lebanon has close to $1.5bn in public debt that it may decide to repay on Thursday. The country's escalating financial crisis and weeks-long anti-government protests are adding more pressure to an already difficult situation.
At $86bn, Lebanon's sovereign debt is the world's third-highest relative to gross domestic product (GDP). The country's beleaguered economy is expected to contract by 0.2 percent this year.
In an effort to calm protesters and to reduce the deficit from the current 11 percent to 0.6 percent by 2020, the government recently proposed a reform package. However, because talk of a tax on the internet partly fuelled the initial protests, ministers avoided tax increases on individuals and instead proposed using a bank contribution of $3.4bn to alleviate the deficit, alongside other proposals. For protesters however, many of whom want the wholesale removal of the prevailing political class, the move was too little, too late.
While anti-government protests have lowered confidence in the economy still further, the crisis was in motion well before the demonstrations began. The situation was compounded after Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on October 29, leaving in place a caretaker government without the bureaucratic powers to introduce the necessary economic reforms.
Protesters shout slogans as they block the highway leading to the Presidential palace during a protest to demand the formation of a new government in Baabda, east Beirut, Lebanon, 26 November 2019. Pr
Lebanese protesters have taken to the streets to demand the formation of a new government, after what they view as a lack of progress following Prime Minister Saad Hariri's resignation on October 29 [File: Wael Hamzeh/EPA]
On Tuesday protesters gathered around the central bank, wearing masks of Central Bank governor Riad Salameh's face and chanting "Thief, thief, Salameh is a thief!" The following day they were back, this time with a Beirut hairdresser offering free haircuts in front of the building "to show them how to give a haircut", according to a poster advertising the event. The scene references proposals by some economists that the central bank should confiscate a certain percentage from the highest depositors' accounts, a financial haircut on those who benefitted the most from high interest rates, in order to relieve the debt burden. "We have to find a solution, and the solution must not be [borne by] the poor people,' said protester Enas Sherry. "They benefitted from the interest, which was very high over the years, so they have to pay what they took from us."
'A regulated Ponzi scheme'
Since the end of the country's 15-year civil war in 1990, Lebanon has depended on tourism, real estate and the country's banks to draw foreign currency, and US dollars in particular, into the country. For its part, the banking sector offered unusually high interest rates for depositors at an average of 7 percent. Other, more extreme schemes have also been attempted: for a brief period in 2016, as the country faced a downturn in foreign currency injections, the central bank offered 20 percent interest on dollar sums deposited in local banks for as little as one year.
A report released by think-tank Triangle last week called the country's "decrepit and untenable" financial system "a regulated Ponzi scheme which has benefitted the banking sector and left the rest of the Lebanese to foot the bill."
Part of the problem is a dollar peg, at 1507.5 Lebanese pounds to the dollar, which has artificially protected the currency for more than two decades. Yet since September, that rate has been slipping in international markets and on the street. The International Monetary Fund estimates the pound is overvalued by up to 50 percent. While the pound is Lebanon's official currency, dollars have been used interchangeably for decades. Many daily bills for rent and utilities are quoted in US dollars; some landlords and businesses are insisting that clients continue to pay in increasingly scarce dollars, or imposing street rates for the conversion. On Wednesday exchange traders in Beirut quoted to Al Jazeera rates of up to 2,100 pounds to the dollar.
An employee places 50,000 denomination Lebanese pound banknotes in a money counting machine at a currency exchange store in Beirut, Lebanon, on Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2019
Calls have mounted for Lebanon to impose formal restrictions on the movement of money to defend the country’s dollar peg and prevent a run on its banks [File: Hasan Shaaban/Bloomberg]
Thanks to fears of capital flight, in recent weeks depositors have seen unofficial capital controls imposed on withdrawals, decreasing to as low as $200-300 allowed per week by some banks, with extra charges imposed on dollar withdrawals. Customers have queued for hours in some places, only to be told their withdrawals cannot be completed.
Some account holders have been told that their debit cards will see severe restrictions imposed when used abroad, others that cards in local currency cannot be used abroad at all until further notice due to "exceptional circumstances prevailing in the country."
The effect of the crisis on the millions of Lebanese already struggling to get by will be devastating, says Sibylle Rizk of civil society organisation Kulluna Irada. "It's not a risk any more, it's already ongoing. We have a shrinkage of the economy … because we have been living above our means. This is going to have a huge economic and social impact because many companies will close down and many people will lose their jobs, which has already started."
"For the moment, we don't see at the higher authority level a clear acknowledgement of the gravity of the situation … we are in a state of denial."
Payday on Thursday
Lebanon faces three options on Thursday: default, restructure or repay. A default, which would mark the first time the country has failed to fulfil a repayment in the country's history, is unlikely, say experts.
"The price to pay for the first-ever default is too high," says Rosalie Berthier, a researcher at Synaps Network. "Because once you default, everybody just expects you to default again … then they'll never get a good rating any more."
Lebanese banks' creditworthiness has already been downgraded several times by ratings agencies in recent months.
Restructuring would involve a combination of renegotiating payment dates, lowering interest rates on the debt and perhaps reducing the value of the biggest depositors' assets - a financial haircut - and putting the difference back into paying off the debt. The longer this is delayed, the less freedom the central bank has to renegotiate its remaining debt. A pedestrian enters a Western Union Co. currency exchange store on Hamra Street in Beirut, Lebanon, on Tuesday, July 24, 2018.
Lebanon’s banks have been paying the highest interest rates on deposits in almost nine years as lenders seek to shore up their capital to cope with political uncertainty and the high borrowing needs of the government [File: Sima Diab/Bloomberg]
Nassib Ghobril, chief economist at Byblos Bank Group told Al Jazeera blaming the banks for the current crisis is unfair, and a distraction from governmental responsibility.
"The banking sector has been assuming the responsibility of public finance stability … and therefore of social stability, for years," said Ghobril. "It's long overdue for the executive branch to assume some of that responsibility by implementing reforms to reduce the structural deficit. [Banks] can no longer contribute on their own."The finance ministry says the country can and will repay the Eurobond on Thursday. But doing so will eat into the country's dwindling dollar reserves, which Rizk says could better be used to invest in critical commodities like fuel, wheat and medicines as the country slips further into crisis.
Equally, as 37 percent of Lebanon's sovereign debt is held locally in the country's banking sector, activists argue repayment will put much of the dollar sum back in the pockets of the country's elites - who own and are the highest depositors in the banks - reinforcing the unequal system protesters are railing against.
Protesters like Enas are determined that the country should default, face the music, and be forced to build a different future. "We need to start building our industry, our agriculture, our own economy, a real economy," she says. "There are many people who are clean [uncorrupted] people, good people, smart people, who can work and work hard if they have the opportunity."

Lebanon: Protesters cautious after clashes with sectarian groups
Leila Molana-Allen/Al Jazeera/November 28/2019
Demonstrations recently turned violent after supporters of the two Shia groups attacked protesters on Sunday.
Beirut, Lebanon - As Lebanon enters its seventh week of anti-government demonstrations, protesters reacted with cautious defiance after three days of repeated clashes with sectarian supporters.
After a relatively quiet weekend following nationwide celebrations of Lebanon's 76th independence day on Friday, the trouble began on Sunday night when protesters blocked roads across the country in advance of calls for a general strike on Monday.
That night saw some of the most sustained clashes since the protests began, as demonstrators and sectarian supporters of leading Shia parties Hezbollah and Amal riding scooters faced off repeatedly until the early hours on Beirut's arterial ring road.
Scores of riot police attempted to keep the two sides apart as sectarian supporters threw rocks at protesters, who retaliated in kind.
Using alleyways on either side of the highway, Hezbollah and Amal Movement supporters tried several times to infiltrate the group of protesters, some of whom armed themselves with sticks and metal bars.
At one point protesters chased the infiltrators, bringing back and setting fire to one of their scooters as a trophy.
"It hasn't deterred me at all, of course, I will be out again," said protester Marie-Nour Hechaime, who fled the scene twice before returning to continue blocking the road. "It was scary on the spot, but not more than that."
Demonstrator Wael Abdel Khaled pulled up his sleeves to show Al Jazeera the cuts and bruises he sustained.
"They hit both my arms and my leg with a rock," Abdel Khaled said. "It was raining rocks on us. It was a battle, really like a battle. But we are not scared. We want it peacefully, but we are not scared of anyone. We want to build a better Lebanon."
Another group on mopeds headed to Martyr's Square, where they destroyed protesters' tents and cars parked nearby.
Shortly after 3am (01:00 GMT), riot police deployed large clouds of tear gas to clear the crowds and by morning, the road was open again. The general strike planned for Monday did not go ahead.
Such attacks by sectarian supporters have been seen several times in recent weeks, but Sunday night's clashes marked the first occasion when mostly peaceful anti-government protesters retaliated en masse.
'Self-defence'
On Monday night, a smaller number of protesters took to Martyr's Square and Riad el Solh, many pacing the streets carrying metal bars after news spread that groups of Hezbollah and Amal supporters were once again riding their motorcycles through downtown Beirut.
The atmosphere was oppressively tense, a marked change from the celebratory, hopeful mood that has defined the protest movement until now.
Protesters maintained they carried the sticks purely for self-defence; many, however, appeared on a hair-trigger and spoiling for a fight.
As the gang of riders drove past, scores of protesters broke through the barriers riot police had erected to separate the two groups and ran at the riders, yelling and waving their improvised weapons.
Several riders stopped and hurled rocks back before driving off. The scene repeated itself several times throughout the night as the riders returned and security forces struggled to keep the two groups apart.
"This is self-defence at the end of the day, the people here are very peaceful but when you are getting hit a first, second, third, fourth, fifth time, you need to protect yourself in the end," said Abdel Khaled.
"Anyone, by human nature, when he's scared he is going to defend himself."
Other protesters, however, were concerned by the violent development.
"[When I saw them holding weapons] I told everyone, 'What you're doing does not represent our protest,'" said artist Michel el-Hachem, adding the change in atmosphere on Monday made him uncomfortable.
"I was telling everyone, 'Please leave the square' and I and a lot of other people who didn't agree with this type of protest actually left."
By Tuesday the tensions spread to other sectarian groups: in the Ain el Remmaneh and Chiyah neighbourhoods of Beirut, Hezbollah and Amal Movement supporters clashed with locals, many of whom support the Christian Lebanese Forces party, throughout the evening.
As the two groups stood on either side of a street - which marked a major front line between Christian and Muslim sides of the city during the country's 15-year civil war - onlookers remarked on the eerie echoes conjured by the scene.
'Honeymoon is over'
While fewer protesters have continued to turn out since the clashes escalated, the smaller numbers on the streets this week was attributed to a need to recover and regroup, said Abdel Khaled, rather than any loss of determination.
"Because we had a battle on Sunday night, so, of course, some people, they want to rest - in Arabic, we call it the 'warrior's break'. They need to breathe a bit after what happened, maybe there is damage. But people are still talking, they're having meetings and trying to find a solution."
Hechaime noted things have changed after the past few days of violence.
"About the future, I feel that the honeymoon is over ... People are starting to feel that this is going to last. We're really going to have to be strategic and even the 'we' is starting to be re-evaluated a bit.
"I feel a bit discouraged at the moment, but I think it's normal that you have ups and downs, so I think we just have to continue."
Dichotomous discourse
Some, however, argue if the anti-government protesters aim for a truly united Lebanese movement, they ought to consider what they have to offer the young Lebanese coming out in support of Hezbollah and Amal.
"There is a kind of discourse that is very dichotomous: us and them, we are civilised, we want to bring about a new country, we know how to protest. While they are thugs, and mobs. It's very pejorative, reducing their whole identity to them riding around on mopeds causing tension," said Jamil Mouawad, a politics lecturer at the American University of Beirut.
"The superficial reading is that they're counter-revolutionaries, sent by parties to beat up protesters and push forward a counter-revolution; but that's not the main cause. They consider the road closures an act of aggression against their mobility as these are the main routes of access to their neighbourhoods. The more protesters are closing roads, the more they are irritated."
Rather than reacting to aggression from sectarian supporters, protesters should attempt a dialogue, said Mouawad.
"I don't see that protesters have opened any channels to reach out to these people, other than the chants saying 'all of us'."
As the protesters grow fearful and weary, a second, equally pressing concern is where they go from here.
President Michel Aoun announced on Tuesday that consultations to select a new prime minister will be held at the presidential palace in Baabda on Thursday, a full month after caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned.
What next?
If Parliament's next choice is anything like the last - Tripoli billionaire Mohammad Safadi was briefly nominated a two weeks ago before widespread protests in response convinced him to withdraw his name - demonstrators are unlikely to accept it.
If, however, the popular chant calling for the rejection of the entire existing political class, "all of them means all of them", is fulfilled, who will lead the country next?
So far, a key tenet of the anti-government protests' success has been their lack of a defined leadership. Having no one in charge has allowed protesters to dodge calls for negotiation from politicians and represent themselves as truly grassroots.
Some, however, in the ubiquitous WhatsApp groups where many of the protests are organised, have begun to voice concern that without leaders and a clear strategy for the future, confidence is waning as to the long-term gains of opposing a new government formed from existing politicians.
"Who will replace them, after all? We need, at the very least, a mission statement and some lists of candidates," said one poster.
Before a new breed of politicians can be carved out, the priority must be solving the economic crisis looming over the country, said university professor and activist Mona Fawaz.
"This is the way forward but it's not easy. You cannot reverse 40 years of corruption in 40 days. Unless there is an intervention [by the current government] to move us out of the deadlock we are in … the danger is grave."
Civil society organiser Zeina al-Helou, however, said among some groups plans for the future are already under way.
"The protests did not start from scratch, a number of political groups actively working towards change had already started way before 17 October," she said. "The next step is obviously elections and this is on the agenda, of course. We are working at the grassroots level with the protesters and in different regions to ensure that the achievements [of the protests] yield themselves in election results. So yes, there is a plan; yes, there is a will and; no, we will not stop," said al-Helou.

Lebanon pays $1.5bn debt to ease financial tension
Dana Khraiche/Bloomberg/November 28/2019
Lebanon has never defaulted, despite having one of the world's highest debt burdens.
Lebanon repaid a $1.5 billion Eurobond on Thursday, an official with knowledge of the matter said, buying the country time as speculation swirls over its ability to avoid a default during a political and economic crisis.
The Finance Ministry issued payment instructions to the central bank, also known as Banque du Liban, the official said on condition of anonymity. The next bond payment is scheduled for March, when a $1.2 billion Eurobond comes due.
Lebanon has never defaulted on its obligations despite struggling under one of the world's biggest debt burdens, and the central bank had repeatedly said it would cover the $1.5 billion bond. But weeks of nationwide protests that ousted the government saw credit risk surge and investor confidence slump.
The yield on the March 2020 bond rose as high as 105 percent last week from a mere 13 percent on October 17, when the demonstrations kicked off. Higher yields, and this month's record costs for insuring government debt, reflect concern the government may have to restructure sooner or later.
Foreign bondholders are estimated to hold $500 million of the repaid Eurobond, while the central bank has $600 million and the rest is most likely held by local banks, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch research note this week.
Day of reckoning
Lebanon is nearing its day of reckoning after years of overspending, borrowing and political paralysis, coupled with the crisis in neighbouring Syria that sent more than 1.5 million refugees into the tiny country.
With a current account deficit of over 25 percent of its gross domestic product, weak growth and debt that's reached 155 percent of the economy, the central bank tried to maintain financial stability throughout the years and carried out what it called financial engineering. The operation was meant to shore up reserves and raise the capital of local banks, the country's largest debt holders.
The protests were sparked by a government levy on phone calls such as those using the free WhatsApp service along with other tax measures. The demonstrations quickly turned against a ruling class accused of corruption. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned and politicians have been unable to agree on a new name to lead the next government.
US dollar shortage and Lebanon's economic crisis [2:29]
The central bank began rationing dollars even before the unrest ignited, pushing up demand for the foreign currency and causing the Lebanese pound to plummet on the black market. The move has stymied trade and imports in a country that's almost entirely reliant on foreign goods.
The central bank has said that it would supply dollars to the importers of fuel, wheat and pharmaceuticals and earlier this week added medical equipment to that list of essential goods.

Experts urge IMF bailout to contain Lebanon's financial crisis
Georgi Azar/Annahar/November 28/2019
On Thursday, Lebanon paid back a Eurobond worth $1.5 billion, which proved to be a double-edged sword.
BEIRUT: Lebanon should consider the possibility of restructuring its government debt before the next Eurobonds payments beginning in March 2020, as it grapples with its most severe financial crisis since the civil war.
"The central bank has been draining its forex reserves at an increasing rate relative to previous years” Saeb El-Zein, an emerging market specialist told Annahar, highlighting the need to preserve liquidity for other essential goods.
On Thursday, Lebanon paid back a Eurobond worth $1.5 billion, which proved to be a double-edged sword. After the November maturity, there are limited payments for three months, but March to June inclusive see around US$3.4bn of principal and coupon payments on Eurobonds.
On one hand, it eased concerns of a first-ever default on its debt, on the other, it put a further strain on the central bank's Fx reserves in the midst of a political deadlock and the lack of an action plan moving forward. According to a recent Moody's report, the central bank still has 5 to 10 billion dollars of usable reserves.
"The government should have planned the restructuring of this bond payment and other debt a few months ago within a framework of reforms and an action plan to address the external and local twin deficits," El Zein told Annahar. Lebanese officials, he said, must take the "necessary measures as soon as possible to avert a disorderly restructuring without the professional and experienced and credible support of organizations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF)."
These measures include formal capital controls, restructuring of the government debt, aligning the two foreign exchange rates of the U.S dollar and lowering interest rates, which would ease investor concern and generate a positive sentiment within Lebanon's banking sector.
This would pave the way for the IMF to intervene, and in coordination with the central bank, set up the framework for a restructuring of Lebanon's debt, estimated at $88.4 billion or 154.5 percent of GDP. Domestic-currency debt is equal to $55.1 billion (96.3% of GDP) while foreign-currency debt equals $33.3 billion (58.1% of GDP).
Commercial banks hold around $36 billion of debt, almost double the base capital of the sector.
Around $11.8 billion in Eurobonds could be held by international market participants, according to a recent report by the Bank of America.
"The IMF is a credible organization that could help stabilize the situation and Lebanon has enough time to plan the restructuring of upcoming payments with a detailed action plan," El Zein told Annahar.
Lebanon has been gripped by nationwide protests for over 40 days, further exacerbating its dire economic condition and financial stability. Liquidity has become hard to come by, with banks implementing informal capital controls to curb the flight of capital. The unofficial nature of these measures has left room for banks to show preferential treatment for high net worth individuals funneling their money abroad.
According to the Bank of America's report, the central bank's Fx reserves loss was estimated at US$0.9 billion in the one week of operations for the banking sector in November, which would deplete its supply by end-1H20.
The report lays out two restructuring scenarios, with an IMF-backed program likely to provide a milder impact.
"We estimate banking sector recapitalization costs to be US$4-6bn (11-13% of GDP). This would lead to deposit bail-in requirements of just 3-4% on all deposits to bring the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) back to the national regulatory requirement of 15%. Should deposit bail-ins only apply to High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs), then the deposit bail-in requirements on such depositors would likely need to double to just 6-8%," the report noted.
A restructuring of Lebanon's debt would call for "a 30% front-loaded face-value cut to the existing pre-IMF pre-devaluation government debt stock ... to keep government debt at the 150% of GDP level," it notes.
A break from the peg within an IMF framework seems invertible and has already taken place given when looking at the current parallel trade market. This, according to El Zein, could have been avoided had the necessary reforms been implemented when warning signs began creeping in two years ago.
"In a report released in 2018, the IMF warned Lebanese officials of the need to implement structural reforms to curb our debt which was unsustainable," El Zein told Annahar.
These pleas, however, fell on deaf ears as both the deficit and debt maintained their upward trajectory.
This sentiment was echoed by Nabil Fahed, the Vice Chairman of the Chamber of Commerce, Industry, and Agriculture who told Annahar that "an IMF intervention has now become a requirement to inject much-needed liquidity into the market."
The shortage in dollar liquidity has caused a surge in black market rates, with the dollar trading at near the LBP 2000 mark, about a third higher than the pegged rate of 1,507.5.
An injection of $5 billion at the very least would relieve the pressures facing Lebanon's banking sector, which has cut loans, credit facilities and withdrawals.
"A devaluation of around 20 to 25 percent is an acceptable level when taking into account the average of the parallel market rate," Fahed told Annahar.
This is but the first condition of any IMF package, Fahed said, along with the total eradication of the budget deficit, the removal of all consumer subsidies including for Lebanon's electricity sector and a push for the privatization of the viable sectors such as the telecom sector.
"This would be difficult and hard to absorb, especially the elimination of consumer subsidies for essential goods such as gasoline and wheat," he said.
Wheat, oil and medicine, estimated to cost around $5 billion dollars per annum in imports, are the only remaining commodities being bought at the official 1507.5 rate after the central bank vowed to provide the requisite liquidity.
Days before Prime Minister Saad Hariri submitted his resignation, the embattled premier presented a reform package that sought to slash the budget deficit to 0.7 percent of GDP, which if implemented, would satisfy yet another IMF condition.
The conversation surrounding the issue has gained traction, however, with caretaker Labor Minister Camille Abou Sleiman hinting at the possibility of pursuing an IMF bailout during an interview with a local media outlet.
"Lebanon needs liquidity, and there is no one able to provide this liquidity but the International Monetary Fund," he said, adding that "certain conditions must be met including an effective government."
Despite the assurances of the international community, who has stated on a bevy of occasions its willingness to support Lebanon, such a prospect grows bleaker with each passing day. The much-coveted CEDRE $11 billion soft loan package has yet to see the light the day and is unlikely to be released without the implementation of necessary reforms.
"Even if an independent government is formed, an IMF program might be the only way to usher in foreign investments as it would restore investor confidence," Daher said, highlighting Egypt as a recent example, which managed to attract investments from the Gulf after strictly adhering to the IMF bailout.
What is certain, however, is that any debt restructuring will prove no easy task, on banks, state institutions, and the Lebanese.
"It will have a huge social and economic impact and must be done very cautiously to avoid unrest," Daher said.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 28-29/2019
Iran: France’s consideration of nuclear deal dispute mechanism ‘irresponsible’
Reuters/Thursday, 28 November 2019
Iran rejected on Thursday France’s consideration of invoking a dispute resolution mechanism within the Iran nuclear deal that could lead to UN sanctions, calling it “irresponsible.”The deal “does not allow the European parties to invoke the mechanism as Iran is exercising its legal right in response to the United States’ illegal and unilateral actions,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said, according to state television. “Under these circumstances, the deal does not allow triggering of the mechanism by the European parties to the deal ... such remarks by the French official are irresponsible and not constructive,” Mousavi said. France’s foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian suggested on Wednesday that Paris was seriously considering triggering a mechanism within the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that could possibly lead to UN sanctions, given Tehran’s repeated breaches of the deal.
“Every two months, there is another dent [in the deal by Iran] to the point where today we ask ourselves, and I’m saying this very clearly, about the implementation of the dispute resolution mechanism that exists in the deal,” Drian told a parliamentary hearing. Britain, France and Germany have sought to salvage the pact, under which Iran undertook to curtail its uranium enrichment program in return for relief from sanctions crippling its economy, since the United States withdrew last year. But the three European powers have failed to make good on the trade and investment dividends promised to Iran under the deal as they have been unable to shield Tehran from renewed US sanctions that have strangled its vital oil trade.That has prompted Iran to renege step by step from its non-proliferation commitments under the deal. Until now the European powers have opted to hold back on triggering the mechanism, fearing it could further impede diplomatic efforts, notably by France, to defuse tensions.The remaining parties to the deal meet in Vienna on December 6 to discuss how to move forward. The mechanism involves a party referring a dispute to a Joint Commission comprising Iran, Russia, China, the three European powers, and the European Union and then on to the UN Security Council if that commission cannot resolve it. If the Security Council does not vote within 30 days to continue sanctions relief, sanctions in place under previous UN resolutions would be reimposed - known as a “snapback.”“We have tried several initiatives that are going backwards [because] we have French [citizens] imprisoned [in Iran], we’ve established that regional attacks, notably on Saudi Arabia, from the Iranian authorities have been carried out,” he said. The magnitude of recent protests in Iran and the authorities’ response also hampered efforts to persuade the United States to de-escalate the standoff, Le Drian said. “It seems to prove them [the US] right in their logic of maximum pressure, given the behavior of the Supreme Leader and President [Hassan] Rouhani towards the protesters.”

Iran Slams France's 'Irresponsible' Comments on Nuclear Deal Mechanism
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 28 November, 2019
Iran rejected as "irresponsible" France's comments that Paris was seriously considering triggering a mechanism within the Iran nuclear deal that could lead to UN sanctions."Iran's scaling back of its nuclear commitments was implementation of its legal rights to react to America's illegal and unilateral exit of the deal and the European parties' failure to fulfill their obligations," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said. "Under these circumstances, the deal does not allow triggering of the mechanism by the European parties to the deal ... such remarks by the French official are irresponsible and not constructive." French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday that "every two months, there is another dent (in the deal by Iran) to the point where today we ask ourselves, and I'm saying this very clearly, about the implementation of the dispute resolution mechanism that exists in the deal."Britain, France and Germany have sought to salvage the pact, under which Iran undertook to curtail its uranium enrichment program in return for relief from sanctions crippling its economy, since the United States withdrew last year. But the three European powers have failed to make good on the trade and investment dividends promised to Iran under the deal as they have been unable to shield Tehran from renewed US sanctions that have strangled its vital oil trade. That has prompted Iran to renege step by step from its non-proliferation commitments under the deal. Until now the European powers have opted to hold back on triggering the mechanism, fearing it could further impede diplomatic efforts, notably by France, to defuse tensions. The remaining parties to the deal meet in Vienna on Dec. 6 to discuss how to move forward.

Moscow Intensifies Dialogue with Kurds to Push for Deal with Damascus
Moscow - Raed Jaber/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 28 November, 2019
Moscow is moving to persuade Syria’s Kurds to expand dialogue with Damascus and respond to the demand for the Syrian Democratic Forces to integrate with the Syrian army. Russian media reported that a military delegation held a closed-door meeting in the city of Ain al-Arab (Kobani) on Tuesday with the leadership of the Kurdish self-administration in the Euphrates region. The Russian Defense Ministry did not give details of the meeting, but Kurdish sources said that the Russian delegation was headed by Lieutenant General Alexei Kim. It added that discussions focused on services to the region. Mohammed Shaheen, deputy chairman of the Euphrates region’s executive board, said after the meeting that the talks with the Russian delegation touched on “the role of Russian forces in the area, the difficult humanitarian situation after the Turkish invasion, and a joint organizational mechanism between the self-administration and the Russian government to preserve the security, safety and stability.”“One of the main points of discussion is Turkey’s violations of the Sochi Agreement, despite the commitment of the SDF to it,” he said, adding that the Russian delegation made promises that the Turkish attacks would stop in the next few days. The Russian military official did not talk about Turkey’s violations, but only pointed out that the meeting aimed to discuss a “solution to social problems and the provision of services and medical and humanitarian assistance.”Kim described the meeting as fruitful. He stressed that Russia would be the guarantor of the security of this region and Syria as a whole, and would exert all efforts to achieve peace, security and prosperity in these territories. Asked about the possibility of a resumption of the Turkish attack on the region, he said: “Russia is doing its best to ward off this scenario and to allow the people of the region to live freely.”Moscow has recently stepped up its rhetoric towards the Kurds, and stressed that it was working to push them towards an understanding with Damascus, and the integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces with the Syrian army.
On a different note, the Russian President’s special envoy to the Middle East and African countries, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, held talks with the delegation of the Syrian Baath Party, currently visiting Russia at the invitation of the United Russia party. Bogdanov stressed during the meeting “Russia’s support for the territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic.”According to a statement issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry, “during a comprehensive exchange of views on the development of the situation in and around Syria, special attention was paid to the elimination of terrorism on Syrian territory, the problem of restoring the social and economic infrastructure in the country and creating conditions for the return of refugees and displaced persons.”

Iraqi forces kill 22 protesters in Nassiriya after Iranian consulate torched
Reuters/November 28/2019
BAGHDAD: Iraqi security forces shot dead 22 protesters in the southern city of Nassiriya on Thursday, medical sources said, and authorities imposed a curfew in Najaf after demonstrators burned its Iranian consulate.
Authorities set up joint military-civilian “crisis cells” to try to stem unrest and a paramilitary commander vowed to use force to stop any attack against Shiite Muslim religious authorities.
The torching of the consulate in Najaf, the southern holy city, escalated violence in Iraq after weeks of mass demonstrations that aim to bring down a government seen as corrupt and backed by Tehran.
It was the strongest expression yet of the anti-Iranian sentiment of Iraqi demonstrators as the gulf widens between a largely Iran-aligned ruling elite and an increasingly desperate Iraqi majority with few opportunities and minimal state support.
The inability of Iraq’s government and political class to deal with the unrest and answer protesters’ demands has fueled public anger.
Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has promised electoral and anti-corruption reform but barely begun delivering while security forces have shot dead hundreds of mostly peaceful demonstrators in the streets of Baghdad and southern cities.
The protests, which began in Baghdad on Oct. 1 and have spread through southern cities, are the most complex challenge facing the Shiite-dominated ruling class that has controlled state institutions and patronage networks since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled long-time Sunni ruler Saddam Hussein.
Young, mostly Shiite protesters say politicians are corrupt, beholden to foreign powers — especially Iran — and they blame them for a failure to recover from years of conflict despite relative calm since the defeat of Islamic State in 2017.
Security forces opened fire on protesters who had gathered on a bridge in Nassiriya before dawn, medical sources said. Some 22 were killed and 180 wounded, they said. A curfew was imposed in Najaf after protesters stormed and set fire to the Iranian consulate late on Wednesday. Businesses and government offices remained closed in the city, state media reported.
“The burning of the consulate last night was a brave act and a reaction from the Iraqi people — we don’t want the Iranians,” said Ali, a protester in Najaf. “There will be revenge from Iran I’m sure, they’re still here and the security forces are going to keep shooting us.”
A protester who witnessed the burning of the consulate said security forces had opened fire to try to stop it. “All the riot police in Najaf and the security forces started shooting at us, as if we were burning Iraq as a whole,” he said, declining to give his name.
‘INFILTRATORS AND SABOTEURS’
The military commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella grouping of paramilitary groups whose most powerful factions are close to Tehran, said the groups would use full force against anyone trying to attack Iraq’s most powerful Shiite cleric, who is based in Najaf.
“We will cut the hand of anyone trying to get near (Grand Ayatollah Ali) Al-Sistani,” commander Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis said in a statement on the PMF website. Observers said the events in Najaf would likely bring a tough response, rather than pushing the government into enacting reforms.
“Apart from casual statements ... the government has not announced any plan (or) given any clear account of what measures it will take,” said Dhiaa Al-Asadi, adviser to powerful populist cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr. “Initiatives are going to be scarce.” Fanar Haddad, senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute, said the government might use the burning of the Iranian consulate as a pretext for an even more heavy-handed crackdown.
“The downside from the protesters’ point of view is this might reinforce the government’s narrative that protesters are infiltrators, saboteurs and up to no good,” he said.
“It sends a message to Iran but also works to the advantage of people like Muhandis ... (giving) a pretext to clamp down and framing what happened as a threat against Sistani.”
Sistani rarely speaks on political issues but traditionally wields enormous influence over public opinion, especially in Iraq’s southern Shiite heartland. He has used Friday sermons in recent weeks to urge the government to enact real reform and stop killing demonstrators.
Security forces have used live ammunition, tear gas and stun grenades against mostly unarmed protesters. Some demonstrators have lobbed petrol bombs, bricks and fired slingshots at police.
Authorities set up “crisis cells” in several provinces to try to restore order, a military statement said on Thursday. They would be led by provincial governors but include military leaders who would take charge of local security forces.
The violence has killed more than 350 people, according to police and medics.

Iraqi forces kill 32 protesters after Iranian consulate torched
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Thursday, 28 November 2019
Iraqi security forces shot dead at least 32 protesters on Thursday after demonstrators stormed and torched an Iranian consulate overnight, Al Arabiya sources confirmed. At least 25 people died in the southern city of Nasiriyah when troops opened fire on demonstrators who blocked a bridge before dawn on Thursday and later gathered outside a police station. Medical sources said dozens of others were wounded. Four others were killed in the capital Baghdad, where security forces opened fire with live ammunition and rubber bullets against protesters near a bridge over the Tigris river. Two died during the day in clashes in Najaf. In Nasiriyah thousands of mourners took to the streets, defying a curfew to bury their dead after the mass shooting. Video of protesters cheering in the night as bright flames billowed from the consulate was a stunning image after years in which Tehran’s influence among Shia Muslims in Arab states has been a defining factor in Middle East politics. The bloodshed that followed was one of the most violent days since the uprising began at the start of October, with anti-corruption demonstrations that swelled into a revolt against authorities scorned by young demonstrators as stooges of Tehran.In Najaf, a city of ancient pilgrimage shrines that serves as the seat of Iraq’s powerful Shia clergy, the Iranian consulate was reduced to a charred ruin after it was stormed overnight. The protesters, overwhelmingly Shia, accused the Iraqi authorities of turning against their own people to defend Iran. “All the riot police in Najaf and the security forces started shooting at us as if we were burning Iraq as a whole,” a protester who witnessed the burning of the consulate told Reuters, asking that he not be identified. Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has so far rejected calls to resign, after meetings with senior politicians that were attended by the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, the elite unit that directs its militia allies abroad. (With Reuters)

Iraq Death Toll Rises as Military Sends Commanders to Provinces
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 28 November, 2019
Officials in Iraq's southern Nasiriyah announced they were imposing a city-wide curfew on Thursday after 14 people were shot dead in a crackdown on anti-government rallies. Security forces were deployed around the edges of the city, searching all cars and people trying to enter, an Agence Frane Presse correspondent said. It followed a similar curfew imposed on the city of Najaf after the Iranian consulate there was torched by protesters overnight. Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi has dispatched military commanders to several provinces swept up by the protests in a bid to "restore order". Iraqi authorities on Thursday said they had set up "crisis cells" that would be jointly led by military leaders and civilian governors in Iraq's provinces in order to stem spiraling popular unrest, according to a military statement. The statement said the cells would be headed by provincial governors but that military leaders would be appointed as members and "take over military and security services in (each) province." Meanwhile, Iran demanded Iraq take decisive action against "aggressors" behind the arson attack by protesters on its consulate in Najaf. Foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi, quoted by state news agency IRNA, condemned the attack and "demanded decisive, effective and responsible action... against destructive agents and aggressors"."Iran has officially communicated its disgust to the Iraqi ambassador in Tehran," he said. Iran's consulate in Karbala was targeted earlier this month, and security forces defending the site shot four demonstrators dead at the time. The violence in Iraq has killed more than 350 people, according to police and medics.

Canada condemns escalating violence in Iraq
November 28, 2019 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
Global Affairs Canada today issued the following statement regarding the protests in Iraq:
“Canada strongly condemns the escalating violence in Iraq, which has resulted in the deaths of hundreds of protestors and injured thousands more. We urge all parties to exercise restraint and refrain from violence.
“We support the people of Iraq, who deserve stability, prosperity and security. Their human and democratic rights—including the right to protest and freedom of expression—must be protected.
“Canada encourages a dialogue to advance political and economic reforms and ensure a better future for all Iraqis. We will continue to work closely with our allies and partners to follow the situation and play a constructive role.”

Russia tries to block new Syria chemical weapons probe
AFP, The Hague/Thursday, 28 November 2019
Russia urged member states of the global chemical weapons watchdog to vote on Thursday against funding a new team that will identify the culprits behind toxic attacks in Syria. Moscow and its allies are trying to block next year’s budget for the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons -- potentially leaving the entire agency unable to operate -- if it includes money for the new Identification and Investigations Team (IIT). The United States hit back by accusing Russia of a “cover-up” of the use of chemical weapons by its ally Damascus, at a tense annual meeting of the OPCW’s 193 member countries in The Hague. “If the financing for the IIT comes out of voluntary contributions (the annual budget paid for by member states) then this will mean one thing only,” Russian ambassador Alexander Shulgin told the meeting. “It will mean that the backers (of the IIT) are going to hire so-called investigators looking at chemical crimes, they will be hired to draw up conclusions which suit the ends of the sponsors,” Shulgin said. “This is disquieting. Confirmation can be found in what’s happening surrounding Douma.”Russia and the West have already clashed repeatedly over allegations by two whistleblowers that the OPCW altered the conclusions of a probe that found chlorine was used in an attack in the Syrian town of Douma in April 2018. Western powers launched airstrikes against Syria in response. OPCW states then approved a western-backed motion in 2018 to give the organization new powers to pin blame on culprits. Previously it could only confirm whether a chemical assault had occurred. “The Syrian cover-up is never going to work because the international community has the courage of its convictions. Unfortunately Russia has played a central role in this cover-up,” said US ambassador to the OPCW Kenneth Ward. “Russia and Syria may sit with us here but they stand apart from us in a fundamental way. They continue to embrace chemical weapons.”France meanwhile defended the “independent and impartial” Douma investigation. “We regret that some delegations have given more importance to partial leaks than to a report which was generated in a rigorous manner,” said France’s deputy permanent representative to the OPCW, Tiphaine Jouffroy. WikiLeaks at the weekend released an email from an investigator accusing the OPCW of altering the original findings of probe to make evidence of a chemical attack seem more conclusive. Another whistleblower’s report complained about the Douma probe earlier this year. The OPCW won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2013 and says it has eliminated 97 percent of the world’s chemical weapons.

Israel Demolishes Homes of 4 Suspected Palestinian Attackers
Jerusalem- Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 28 November, 2019
The Israeli military says it has demolished the homes of four Palestinians suspected of killing an Israeli soldier. Israeli forces tore down the homes in the West Bank village of Beit Kahil, northwest of Hebron. Israel says the four are suspected of being involved in the fatal stabbing Cpl. Dvir Sorek in August.
Clashes erupted during Thursday´s demolition, with Palestinian protesters hurling rocks and burning tires at Israeli troops. Aref Asafrah, the father of one of the suspected killers, says he and his ten children are now homeless.
Israel says it carries out home demolitions as a deterrent against future Palestinian attackers. The new defense minister, Naftali Bennett, said Thursday that home demolitions prove "there is a price to terror, and Jewish blood is not spilled without cost."

Palestine's Abbas to Set Elections Date After His Return to Ramallah
Ramallah- Kifah Zboun/Jerusalem- Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 28 November, 2019
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will set the date for holding legislative and presidential elections after his return to Ramallah, announced member of Fatah Party's Central Committee Hussein al-Sheikh. President Abbas is currently on an official visit in Qatar and will receive Hamas’ response from the chairman of the Palestinian Central Elections Commission (CEC), Hanna Nasser, when he’s back in Ramallah. Sheikh said that Abbas will decide on a date for holding the elections depending on Palestinian factions' responses. Executive Director of the Election Commission, Hisham Kahil, said all factions have given their written consent to the elections after receiving Hamas’ approval and acceptance of the elections. The delegation of CEC returned from Gaza Strip to Ramallah carrying Hamas’ response and announced it had concluded its consultations on the general elections.
The committee said in a statement that its delegation with Hamas leadership and received a written response indicating it will participate in the upcoming general elections in the Strip and the West Bank, including Jerusalem. The committee said it has completed all consultations on the conduct of general elections and will inform President Abbas of the results, who, in turn, is expected to issue a presidential decree setting the date. Chief of Hamas politburo, Ismail Haniyeh, agreed to hold the elections within the Palestinian consensus and handed the movement’s “positive” response to Chairman Nasser. “We will move forward in our national dialogue on the elections of the Palestinian National Council (PNC) while reconsidering ways to rehabilitate and develop the institutions of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to resume its active role,” Haniyeh stated.
Hamas does not object holding the legislative elections followed by the presidential elections, within a duration not exceeding three months. The movement also reiterated that legislative and presidential elections should be held in Jerusalem, West Bank, and the Gaza Strip, and demanded public freedoms are ensured. Hamas noted that Arab and international bodies, as well as legislative and legal institutions, should be invited to monitor and supervise the election process to ensure its integrity and transparency. Hamas concluded by stating that these requirements are the necessary foundations for conducting and ensuring the success of any electoral process. However, the election is not just about Hamas's approval. Abbas wants to hold elections in Jerusalem as well, which presents a more complicated issue. Israel rejects any activity which exercises “Palestinian sovereignty” in East Jerusalem, considering the whole city as its capital.

Israel Endorses Hamas’ Statement That 'Rebellious Organizations' Fired Rockets From Gaza
Ramallah, Tel Aviv- Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 28 November, 2019
Senior Israeli security officials on Wednesday endorsed Hamas’ message that rocket attacks on Israel were not initiated by the movement, not even by the Islamic Jihad, but by “rebellious organizations that do not comply with Hamas’ strict orders to refrain from violating the truce.”
Sources said that the Israeli security services do not yet know the identity of those who fired rockets from Gaza towards the southern Israeli towns, but they believed Hamas and Jihad messages that they have not changed their policies and that they were strictly committed to calm the situation.
The sources said those who fired the rockets were “chaotic and rebel organizations,” adding: “There are many such organizations in the Gaza Strip that have a lot of weapons.”These explanations came after the Israeli army had responded to the shelling from the Gaza Strip, with heavy raids on Hamas positions. According to a statement by the military spokesman in Tel Aviv, “Hamas is responsible for firing the shells.” Gunmen from Gaza fired two rockets. One was intercepted the Iron Dome system, while the second landed in an open area. It is believed that the gunmen are opposed to Hamas or dissatisfied with the recent truce and aim to embarrass the movement, which did not participate in the latest round of fighting between Israel and Islamic Jihad. Since then, in a rare shift, Friday’s demonstrations on the Gaza border have been canceled for two weeks in a row. Israel and Hamas are not seeking a new confrontation, as evidenced by Israel’s deliberate attack on open positions and Hamas’ failure to respond. Palestinian rockets or Israeli shelling caused no casualties. Observers noted that Israel sometimes allowed sporadic fire without response in order to avoid escalating tensions.

2 Turkish Soldiers Killed in Attack on Syria Border
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 28 November, 2019
Two Turkish soldiers were killed in southern Turkey in a mortar attack near a military base in the town of Akcakale on the Syrian border, Turkey's defense ministry said on Thursday. The attack took place on Wednesday and targeted a base across from the Syrian town of Tel Abyad, which Turkey and its Syrian rebel allies seized in a military operation against the Kurdish YPG last month, the ministry said. Turkish forces had immediately opened intense artillery fire towards the source of the attack, a ministry statement said, and operations in the region continued. Akcakale lies adjacent to areas that were targeted in Turkey's offensive against Kurdish fighters in Syria last month.

Turkey reneges on NATO’s Baltic defense plan to extort US concessions in Syria
DEBKAfile/November 28/2019
In another anti-US provocation, President Recep Erdogan ordered the Turkish ambassador to NATO to withhold signature on Wednesday, Nov. 27, from the alliance’s new defense program for Poland and the Baltic states against Russia. On Tuesday, the Turkish army pointedly practiced the S-400 air defense system recently acquired from Moscow in defiance of Washington’s warnings. The new NATO defense program must be approved by all 29 member nations before it can be applied. Ankara announced that its approval would be held back until NATO extends its political support to the Turkish army’s intervention in northern Syria against Kurdish forces and their YPG militia. DEBKAfile’s military sources note that the YPG is the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces operating alongside the US contingents based in northern Syria and under US command. Turkey’s ultimatum to NATO amounts to a demand that US forces in Syria operate contrary to American security interests in that country. It is also tantamount to Turkey reneging on its commitment to the Western alliance to line up with the Russian position against Poland and the Baltic sates as well as the US stance in Syria.
A senior NATO official who opted to stay anonymous slammed Erdogan’s ultimatum: “The Turks are taking eastern Europeans hostage, blocking approval of this military planning until they get concessions,” he said. Our sources reveal that on Tuesday, Erdogan pad a visit to Qatar to formally inaugurate a new Turkish military base set up to bolster the oil emirate’s ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in his quarrel with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In a speech marking the occasion, the Turkish president chose to denounce Israel whom he accused of “stealing Muslim land.”

Iraq’s Prime Minister fires new commander after 22 killed in crackdown: state TV
AgenciesThursday, 28 November 2019
Iraq’s Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi on Thursday sacked the military commander he had dispatched earlier in the day to “restore order” to a protest-hit southern city after a crackdown there killed 22 protesters. Abdul Mahdi sent General Jamil Shummary to the city of Nasiriyah on Thursday morning. Following the deployment, the toll in a bloody crackdown on the city rose to 22 protesters dead and more than 180 wounded. Iraqi television announced the premier had “withdrawn” Shummary from the post by the afternoon. The violence erupted after the premier dispatched military commanders to “restore order” in the protest-hit south, hours after demonstrators torched Tehran’s consulate in the shrine city of Karbala.

Turkey to send 11 ISIS detainees back to France in December: Interior Minister
Al Arabiya English/Reuters/Thursday, 28 November 2019
Turkey will repatriate 11 French ISIS detainees early in December, state media quoted Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu as saying on Thursday, as Ankara pressed on with a repatriation program that had strained ties with some of its allies. Turkey begun the process of repatriating the ISIS detainees earlier this month, sending several suspects to their home countries despite calls from some European nations that the suspected jihadists should be tried where they committed crimes. Ankara has repeatedly threatened to send ISIS prisoners back to Europe. In early November, Soylu said Turkey will send captured ISIS members back to their countries even if their citizenships have been revoked, criticizing the approach of European countries on the issue. “We will send back those in our hands, but the world has come up with a new method now: revoking their citizenships,” Soylu said. “They are saying they should be tried where they have been caught. This is a new form of international law, I guess.”

Turkey and Libya sign deal on maritime zones in the Mediterranean
Reuters, Istanbul/Thursday, 28 November 2019
Turkey and Libya’s internationally recognized government have signed an agreement on maritime boundaries in the Mediterranean Sea as well as a deal on expanded security and military cooperation, the Turkish government said on Thursday. There were no immediate details on the maritime accord, which could further complicate disputes over energy exploration in the eastern Mediterranean where Turkish drilling has angered Greek Cypriots, Athens and the European Union. EU foreign ministers agreed economic sanctions against Turkey two weeks ago to punish it for drilling off the coast of Cyprus in violation of a maritime economic zone established off the divided island. The dispute pits Turkey against several eastern Mediterranean states that have agreed maritime and economic zones with Greece and Cyprus, leaving Ankara searching for allies in the region.
The new agreements were signed at a meeting in Istanbul on Wednesday between Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Fayez al-Serraj, the head of the Tripoli-based government which Ankara is backing against a rival military force based in eastern Libya. “The (security) agreement establishes training and education, structures the legal framework, and strengthens the ties between our militaries,” the Turkish presidency’s communications director Fahrettin Altun said in a tweet. “We will also continue advocating for a political solution to build a democratic, stable and prosperous Libya,” he said. Altun’s office said in a statement that the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on the “delimitation of maritime jurisdictions”, which aims to protect the two Countries’ rights under international law. Libya has been divided since 2014 into rival military and political camps based in the capital Tripoli and the east. Serraj’s government is in conflict with forces led by Khalifa Haftar based in eastern Libya. Haftar controls most of Libya’s oil fields and facilities but oil revenues are controlled by the central bank in Tripoli. The competing military alliances are also battling on the outskirts of the capital. In June, Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) said they had cut all ties with Turkey and that all Turkish commercial flights or ship trying to access Libya would be treated as hostile. Diplomats say Ankara has supplied drones and trucks to Serraj, while the LNA received support from the United Arab Emirates and Egypt.

Trump Makes Surprise Trip to Afghanistan
Agence France Presse/Thursday, 28 November 2019
U.S. President Donald Trump made an unannounced trip to Afghanistan on Thursday to celebrate the Thanksgiving holiday with U.S. troops at the Bagram airbase outside the capital Kabul. In a visit due to last about two-and-half hours, he served turkey to troops in a cafeteria, posed for photographs and delivered remarks in a hangar, as well as meeting Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.About 13,000 U.S. troops remain in Afghanistan, 18 years after the United States invaded in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks. The United States earlier this year reached a deal with the Taliban insurgents to pull troops from the country and wind down America's longest war in return for security guarantees. But Trump made a shock move in September, describing the year-long talks as "dead" and withdrawing an invitation to the insurgents to meet near Washington due to the killing of a U.S. soldier. The U.S. president has more recently suggested that negotiations could get underway again. The Taliban have refused to negotiate formally with the Afghan government, but diplomatic efforts continue to foster dialogue and plant the seeds of an eventual brokered peace deal. In Washington, Trump's relations with the U.S. military leadership have been badly soured over his repeated interference in military discipline cases. On November 15, Trump -- the commander-in-chief of the U.S. military -- reversed the demotion handed down to Navy SEAL Edward Gallagher who was accused of war crimes but was found guilty of a lesser offense. Trump said that Gallagher had been "treated very badly" by the navy, and ordered that he would not be expelled from the elite SEAL (Sea, Air, and Land) force.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 28-29/2019
Iranians: “Why is the world silent as our government is murdering us?”
Uzay Bulut/INN/November 28/2019
Just “raising concerns” and “urging Iranian restraint” in the face of the high protester death toll have no influence over the decision making processes of the murderous regime in Iran.
Since demonstrations broke out over high gas prices on November 15 across Iran, at least 140 protesters have been killed. Amnesty International reports that Iranian security forces “shot unarmed people on streets, from rooftops and a helicopter”. Thousands have reportedly been arrested.
The internet was blocked by the Iranian government for a week to prevent the world from seeing these abuses. And many human rights organizations believe that the death toll is significantly higher.
Amnesty further reported on November 25 that,
“[T]he Iranian authorities have been moving injured protesters from hospitals to detention facilities, putting their lives at risk by denying them potentially life-saving medical care.
“[I]n many cases, the Iranian authorities have refused to return victims’ bodies to their families and, in some cases, the security forces have removed dead bodies from morgues and transferred them to unknown locations.
“There are also shocking reports that, when the authorities have returned victims’ bodies to their families, they have demanded payment citing several reasons, including the cost of the bullet that killed their loved one, or compensation for property destroyed during the protests. These allegations have been denied by at least one official in Khuzestan province.
“Meanwhile, in a pattern consistent with previous protester killings in Iran, the authorities have threatened victims’ families with arrest if they hold funerals for their loved ones or speak to members of the media.”
As thousands of Iranians have been risking their lives to call for the ouster of the regime for about two weeks, it has become increasingly difficult to find out about the real scope of the rights violations by the Iranian authorities. In fact, the regime of Iran, which is infamous for jailing and oppressing journalists, has reportedly been dictating to the media within the country on how to cover the protests.
“The Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI) has learned that two main government ministries have silenced the domestic media by issuing directives dictating coverage of the unrest, in a blatant violation of freedom of the press. Intelligence ministry officials have also threatened journalists that they will be charged with ‘crimes’ if their reporting of events does not hew to the official narrative of events.
“Moreover, contrary to the widespread view that the government was caught off guard by the protests, CHRI has learned from an informed source who requested anonymity for security reasons that officials anticipated there would be unrest after the planned announcement of the gasoline price hikes. According to the source, state officials met with media publishers to instruct them on coverage of the expected unrest before the price hikes were announced to the public.”
And it appears that the governmental pressures bore fruit. “Domestic Iranian news media, including the major state-run newspapers, news agencies, and broadcasters minimized the protests and the gas price hike, according to CPJ’s [Committee to Protect Journalists] review of their output since the protests began.”
After the Iranian regime shut down the internet on November 16, Iranian people were unable to access the internet, including messaging services or social media, for a week. On November 22, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on Twitter:
“The U.S. is sanctioning the Minister of Information and Communications Technology, Mohammad Jahromi, for helping shut down the Iranian internet. We will hold members of the Iranian regime accountable for their violent repression of the Iranian people. #Internet4Iran.”
Following both Pompeo’s and US President Donald Trump’s strong stance against the Iranian regime, Internet was “restored with multiple fixed-line providers across much of Iran, allowing some users to get online via wifi. Current connectivity levels have risen to 64% after earlier flatlining at 5% for several days. Mobile internet remains largely unavailable,” reported NetBlocks, which monitors cybersecurity and the governance of the internet.
However, those who have tried to reach out to the world despite the internet blackout have been targeted by the regime. On November 22, for instance, security forces from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence arrested Mohammad Mosaed, a freelance economic reporter, at his home in Tehran for posting two tweets on November 19. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) reported that “During the internet blackout, Mosaed tweeted ‘Hello Free World!’ and said he was using ‘42 different proxies’ to access the internet, according to a screenshot of that post taken before his account was suspended on November 23. He also tweeted a congratulations to other Iranians who had been able to bypass the internet shutdown, according to Radio Farda.”
Despite Iran’s deadly crackdown on the protestors, the UN and EU’s responses have been weak and ineffective, according to many observers, including Amnesty:
“While the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, the EU and a number of states have condemned what they have described as apparent use of excessive force, these responses have failed to explicitly acknowledge the use of lethal force to kill protesters, despite mounting evidence.
“‘The international community’s cautious and muted response to the unlawful killing of protesters is woefully inadequate. They must condemn these killings in the strongest possible terms and describe these events for what they are – the deadly and wholly unwarranted use of force to crush dissent,’” said Philip Luther, Research and Advocacy Director for the Middle East and North Africa at Amnesty International.
And on November 21, the human rights organization, Iran Wire, expressed its frustration over the overall Western coverage of the protests, and asked: “Why is the world so silent about us?”
“Iranians are angry that Western media is ignoring the Iran protests and the government’s murder of protesters. Stories about a US congressman farting on TV and Prince Andrew have received more coverage. Iranians want to know: How many must be killed to be newsworthy?”
Apparently, just “raising concerns” and “urging Iranian restraint” in the face of the high protester death toll have no influence over the decision making processes of the murderous regime in Iran.
The key to real change in Iran that will eventually provide Iranian people with freedom, prosperity, and human rights lies in the Trump administration’s powerful stance against Iran’s abusive government. As the White House announced in 2017: The US “will work to deny the Iranian regime – and especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – funding for its malign activities, and oppose IRGC activities that extort the wealth of the Iranian people.
“It is time for the entire world to join us in demanding that Iran’s government end its pursuit of death and destruction.”
As the Iranian regime is increasingly murdering and torturing its own citizens before the eyes of the world, it is time for the EU and other free nations to follow the US lead.
Uzay Bulut is a Turkish journalist; political analyst and Muslim affiars expert formerly based in Ankara. Her writings have appeared in various outlets such as the Washington Times, Christian Post, Arutz Sheva, Jerusalem Post and Gatestone Institute.

The Self-Censorship Trap: Some Artists Walking Right Into It
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/November 28/2019
The Index on Censorship has identified what appears to be an overly cautious approach to commissioning new artwork. "Artists will create the work that gatekeepers and commissioners will adopt...."
"I love my freedom. I'm aware of the very real threat to that freedom from Islamic fascism and I'm not going to pander to them or justify it like many people on the left are doing." — The artist Mimsy, whose artwork was removed from an exhibit entitled Passion for Freedom at the Mall Gallery, London, on the grounds that it might be "potentially inflammatory".
This kind of censorship among artists, however, unfortunately, only contributes to the ever-shrinking space of free expression. Some artists, evidently, only approve of certain kinds of free expression. They never appear to consider that a similar boycott might happen to themselves, if they happen to fall afoul of current political orthodoxy.
"Ai Weiwei should be the first to know that this kind of thinking is totalitarian.... Political art represents both the struggle and the vaccine against the culture of silence found in any society. The political artist breaks down taboos so that the roads are opened for the exchange of thoughts and ideas between individuals and between citizens and rulers. Therefore, political art is necessary. And so this exhibition is necessary." — Jon Eirik Lundberg, curator of the Læsø Art Hall, Denmark.
The kind of censorship among artists that has been exposed at the Læsø Art Hall, on the Danish island of Læsø, unfortunately only contributes to the ever-shrinking space of free expression. Some artists, evidently, only approve of certain kinds of free expression. Pictured: Læsø, Denmark. (Image source: Nikolaj F. Rasmussen/Flickr)
Index on Censorship, a London-based organization that campaigns for free expression worldwide, recently launched a new support service for artists, Arts Censorship Support Service.
The service is apparently intended to "push back against censorship and keep the space for artistic freedom of expression as wide open as possible", according to an interview by ArtsProfessional with Associate Arts Producer Julia Farrington of the Index on Censorship.
The Index on Censorship has identified what in general appears to be an overly cautious approach to commissioning new artwork. "Artists will create the work that gatekeepers and commissioners will adopt, and so [the new service] is a lot to do with making the decision makers, the commissioners, confident in taking on and challenging their own self-censorship and organisational censorship," Farrington said. According to her, the pressure that can be exerted on arts organizations when producing controversial or challenging work has been greater than ever, in part due to a climate of online hostility.
"The internet has clearly changed the landscape," she said. "Artists are definitely in the firing line when it comes to online harassment and abuse".
The support initiative comes six years after the Index on Censorship's major conference, "Taking the Offensive – defending artistic freedom of expression in the UK." At that time, in 2013, it was the first "cross-art-form, sector- wide, national conference on artistic freedom" in the UK. While the conference was held "to debate the growth of self-censorship in contemporary culture, the social, political and legal challenges to artistic freedom of expression and the sources of these new challenges and pressures including security issues, risk aversion and a growing sensitivity to 'offence'", the climate for artistic freedom seems not to have improved much, if at all, since then. If it had, such a support service would now be superfluous.
The Index on Censorship's new support service offers anyone in the UK cultural sector, employed or self-employed, who is facing an issue of censorship, assistance with a wide range of issues, including:
"Checking at the earliest stage of production of a new work whether there is the potential of a legal challenge
"Advising on a communications strategy in support of provocative work
"Advising how to manage hostile media attention directed at an artist, member of an organisation, or the organisation as a whole
"Providing moral support and guidance on how to deal with the emotional stress associated with controversy."
The UK has, in recent years, grappled with a string of cases highlighting the roadblocks for free expression in various forms of art. In 2015, for instance, police recommended to cancel part of an art exhibition at a London gallery -- not because of protests but because it might be "potentially inflammatory". The art installation, ISIS Threaten Sylvania, by an artist known as Mimsy, was removed from an exhibition called Passion for Freedom at the Mall Gallery in London. The work, a political satire, featured children's toys, known as Sylvanian Families. "Far away, in the land of Sylvania, rabbits, foxes, hedgehogs, mice and all woodland animals have overcome their differences to live in harmonious peace and tranquility," the exhibition catalogue states. "MICE-IS, a fundamentalist Islamic terror group, are threatening to dominate Sylvania, and annihilate every species that does not submit to their hardline version of sharia law."
ISIS Threaten Sylvania "was removed from the Passion for Freedom exhibition at the Mall galleries after police raised concerns about the 'potentially inflammatory content' of the work, informing the organisers that, if they went ahead with their plans to display it, they would have to pay £36,000 for security for the six-day show." At the time, the curators of the exhibition said:
"The highlighted work was humorously mocking the despised terrorist organisation that causes suffering to many, not only in the Middle East, but also here, in Europe and America."
Mimsy, the artist, said:
"I love my freedom. I'm aware of the very real threat to that freedom from Islamic fascism and I'm not going to pander to them or justify it like many people on the left are doing."
The good news is that ISIS Threaten Sylvania is was recently on show, with the work of other artists, in an exhibition called The Political Art at the Læsø Art Hall on the Danish island of Læsø. This time, however, Mimsy was not the issue. Rather, the new stumbling block was the refusal of some artists even to exhibit their work in the company of colleagues with whom they politically disagree -- a circumstance no amount of support services presumably can fix.
The Danish exhibition featured works by celebrated artists such as the Chinese dissident Ai Weiwei, British Banksy, Gongsan Kim, who is originally from North Korea, Agnieszka Kolek, and a number of Scandinavian and other international members of the art world. According to the art gallery's curator, Jon Eirik Lundberg:
"Political art represents both the struggle and the vaccine against the culture of silence found in any society. The political artist breaks down taboos so that the roads are opened for the exchange of thoughts and ideas between individuals and between citizens and rulers. Therefore, political art is necessary. And so this exhibition is necessary."
At the last minute, however, according to Lundberg, people connected to Ai Weiwei, specifically a Danish collector, Jens Faurschou, who owns the artwork in question, asked that the work not be included in the exhibition because it also featured the artists Lars Vilks, Dan Park, and Uwe Max Jensen.
Lars Vilks is a Swedish artist, primarily known for his 2007 cartoon of Muhammad as a dog. Vilks has since been the target of several terrorist plots, including a terrorist attack on a conference to support free speech in Copenhagen in February 2015.
Dan Park, a Swedish street artist, has been imprisoned in Sweden for producing some of his work. In 2014, he was convicted of defamation and inciting hatred against an ethnic group, and sentenced to six months for satirical works that the court claimed depicted Roma and black people in a racist way. In another incident, in January 2009, Park placed a jar with the text "Zyklon B" and a swastika outside the Jewish congregation's premises in Malmö. "No, everyone can't laugh at everything, but I like to joke about what is forbidden, like the Holocaust and the Mohammed caricatures," Park said at the time.
Uwe Max Jensen, a Danish performance artist, ran as a political candidate for the anti-Islamic party Stram Kurs in Denmark's recent elections.
The decision to withdraw Ai Weiwei's piece was taken by Faurschou, the Danish collector, after he was approached by a journalist from a Danish newspaper, Weekendavisen. The journalist, Faurschou explained, told him that the exhibition also included works whose, "values are far removed from Ai Weiwei and my own values".
After consulting with Ai Weiwei, Faurschou withdrew the work. "Several of the artists' so-called 'political art' wants to provoke merely for the sake of provocation and takes freedom of speech hostage in my opinion", Faurschou said. "That is why I have decided to withdraw the piece from the exhibition. It is my decision, as I own the artwork". He pointed out that he was in touch with Ai Weiwei's studio and that the decision was unanimous.
"Ai Weiwei should be the first to know that this kind of thinking is totalitarian. One cannot simply say that people are a particular way because they say or publish particular things. That amounts to censorship," said Lundberg, who emphasized that he himself had not spoken to Ai Weiwei.
"It is absurd", said Uwe Max Jensen. "If you begin to pick art according to who you agree with politically then you are off the mark". He added: "I am actually a bit outraged. His [Ai Weiwei's] art is condemned by the Chinese regime; he knows all about being kept on the outside."
In addition, a handful of Danish artists, who were supposed to have exhibited their works in an unrelated exhibition at the Læsø Art Hall, demanded that the works of Dan Park and Uwe Max be removed from the Political Art exhibition or they would withdraw their works from exhibition that was scheduled for late 2019.
Artists are obviously free to boycott whomever they choose, and to refuse to offer their works to exhibitions with participating artists of whom they disapprove. This kind of censorship among artists, however, unfortunately, only contributes to the ever-shrinking space of free expression. Some artists, evidently, only approve of certain kinds of free expression, never appearing to consider that a similar boycott might happen to themselves if they happen to fall afoul of current political orthodoxy.
As the Danish literary author Jens-Martin Eriksen said about the refusal of the Danish artists even to exhibit at the gallery in the later show:
"This practice allows artists to be evaluated first in a closed forum, a kind of political-ethical council before their works are allowed to see the light of day... Obviously, the boycotting artists are within their right to stay away from their own exhibition... But it is new that the artistic scene has become so polarized that one can no longer perform together and then let the political discussion and confrontation take place [together] with the works in the public space."
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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The US Deals With a New Iranian Threat
Bobby Ghosh/Bloomberg/November,27/2019
Having played his aces too early on Iran’s nuclear program, President Donald Trump now has only a weak hand against a new threat from the Islamic Republic. The Pentagon is warning that the regime will buy advanced conventional weapons — like tanks and jet fighters — toward the end of next year, when a United Nations embargo ends.
In a compromise linked to Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with the world powers, the UN agreed that starting in October 2020, the regime could purchase arms it doesn’t produce. Iran is already in talks with Russia to buy Su-30 fighters, Yak-130 trainers, T-90 tanks, S-400 air-defense systems and Bastian coastal defense systems. It may also be in the market for Chinese military hardware.
The Trump administration has been trying to rally support for extending the embargo. At a recent UN Security Council meeting, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo warned that allowing the Islamic Republic access to sophisticated weapons would “create new turmoil” in the Middle East.
Pompeo is right: Iran has used its existing military strength and capabilities to prop up the dictator Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and to equip Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as proxy militias in Iraq and Yemen. It will likely use new arms to strengthen these groups and menace other states in the region.
But Pompeo can expect no sympathy in the Security Council — and not just because at least two other veto-wielding permanent members, China and Russia, are potential arms suppliers to Iran. By pulling the US out of the nuclear deal against the pleas of the other signatories, the Trump administration may not even be able to count on the support of France and Britain.
The US’s most powerful non-kinetic weapon — economic sanctions — should scare off most arms manufacturers. The real test will come when Russian and Chinese suppliers have to weigh their options between US sanctions and Iranian orders worth billions of dollars.
The sanctions will make it impossible for them to do business in the US, and hard to sell to others who want to remain on good terms with the Americans. Sanctions can also be deployed with great effectiveness against executives and officials. Against that, the individuals may have to weigh political pressure from Moscow and Beijing to make the deals.
The best the Trump administration may be able to do is tighten the sanctions that bar the Iranian regime from many financial transactions — and hope that arms manufacturers won’t do business with a regime that can’t actually pay. The US may also have to end waivers on Iranian hydrocarbons exports, to prevent any oil-for-weapons deals.
This will especially infuriate the Chinese, at a time when Trump needs Beijing’s cooperation to get a new trade deal.
How might China and Russia respond? They may have reasons to keep Iran from becoming too strong militarily. Russia is in competition with Iran for influence in Syria, and may not want Assad to have access to Iranian tanks and jets. Beijing might reckon that a more powerful Iran would be more capable of disrupting oil supplies from the Middle East, which are essential to the Chinese economy.
China will not have been reassured by Tehran’s latest stunt to rattle its Arab neighbors: dispatching a flotilla to the coast of Yemen, an unsubtle threat against shipping in the mouth of the Red Sea, just as Iran poses one in the Persian Gulf.
But the worst-case scenario is that China and Russia might create a mechanism to circumvent American sanctions, and challenge the US preeminence in the global financial system. The Europeans have tried that with Instex, a “special purpose vehicle” created to shield their trade with Iran. But it has come to naught, mainly because no European companies dare to run the gauntlet of American sanctions.
Might Russian and Chinese arms manufacturers be more willing to take the risk? Trump and Pompeo can do little more than keep their fingers tightly crossed.

U.S. Sanctions Iran’s Minister of Information and Communications Technology
Tzvi Kahn/FDD/November 28/2019
The Trump administration sanctioned Iran’s minister of information and communications technology (ICT) on Friday for his longstanding role in suppressing Iranian citizens’ access to the internet. The designation of Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi marks an expression of solidarity with the Iranian people, who recently faced a weeklong internet blackout aimed at weakening their ability to organize protests and expose Tehran’s bloody repression of them.
The suppression of online communications constitutes a key function of the ICT Ministry, which administers a vast telecommunications infrastructure that not only blocks millions of websites but also aids Tehran’s efforts to monitor dissidents. Keenly aware that Iranians utilized social media to organize mass protests in 2009 and again in recent years, Tehran fears the internet’s role in promoting resistance.
The ICT Ministry runs the Telecommunications Infrastructure Company (TIC), which developed the National Information Network (NIN), a state-controlled national internet, or intranet, that offers Iranians key online services, such as email and banking. In practice, however, the NIN serves as an instrument of censorship and intimidation, enabling the regime to conduct surveillance, block international websites, and wage cyberattacks.
The 38-year-old Jahromi, Iran’s youngest cabinet minister ever appointed, secured his post in August 2017 after serving four years as deputy ICT minister. In June 2017, then-ICT Minister Mahmoud Vaezi said that during President Hassan Rouhani’s first term, the ICT Ministry had closed seven million websites and blocked 121,000 programs that enabled users to evade government censors.
From 2009 to 2013, Jahromi helped develop the Intelligence Ministry’s online surveillance infrastructure. From 2002 to 2009, he worked for Iran’s Intelligence Ministry, which bears responsibility for the violent death of countless regime opponents both at home and abroad since the 1980s. In 2009, Jahromi reportedly assisted security forces in detaining and harshly interrogating Iranians who participated in nationwide protests. In 2016, he became the CEO of the Telecommunications Infrastructure Company, offering him a leading role in developing the NIN.
Jahromi has expressed pride in his resume. “I worked in the Intelligence Ministry,” he said, “but unfortunately there’s this approach that whoever works in that ministry is bad. If the ministry is bad, then why has it been created?” In fact, he declared, he considered it “an honor” to work there. Before Jahromi’s appointment, one Iranian lawmaker warned that the incoming minister could transform the ICT Ministry into a “second Intelligence Ministry.”
Those words of caution have proven prescient. During Jahromi’s tenure, Tehran has repeatedly blocked social media platforms like Instagram and Telegram to stymie protests and other forms of dissent. “Maintaining national security is very important,” said Jahromi regarding the latest flare-up of protests in Iran, which began on November 15 in response to the regime’s hike in gas prices.
Since his appointment as ICT minister, rumors have circulated that Jahromi intends to run for Iran’s presidency, although he said in August he still has not “reached any conclusion on this issue.” In multiple interviews, Jahromi has also hailed the importance of internet freedom, notwithstanding his prominent role in suppressing it.
In this sense, Jahromi’s rhetoric parallels that of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who cultivates an image as a moderate and a reformer while his government continues to crush dissent and support terrorism. Washington’s designation of Jahromi should make clear that he is no different than the president who appointed him.
The Trump administration should now build upon Jahromi’s designation by sanctioning other key human rights abusers. Potential targets include Mahmoud Alavi, the minister of intelligence; Hossein Ashtari, the head of Iran’s police, formally known as the Law Enforcement Force; and Gholamreza Soleimani, the commander of the Basij militia. Like Jahromi, each has played a major role in suppressing protests and other forms of dissent.
*Tzvi Kahn is a senior Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from Tzvi and CEFP, subscribe HERE. Follow Tzvi on Twitter @TzviKahn. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Troubles between Congress and religious freedom
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/November 26, 2019
The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom is a small government agency that has done good work in the past and may do good work in the future — if it’s not transformed into a politicized bureaucracy.
To call attention to this imminent danger, Kristina Arriaga, a USCIRF commissioner since 2016, has resigned, explaining her reasons in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. She cited a proposed reauthorization and “reform” bill introduced in the Senate in September that would shift USCIRF’s “stated purpose and burden commissioners with new bureaucratic hurdles.”
She added: “Following an uproar from Democratic and Republican commissioners, past and present, the senators pulled the bill before it went to the House.” But it’s not over. She is convinced that powerful members of Congress are determined to “erode the commissioners’ independence” and do USCIRF irreparable damage.
To understand what’s happening and why it matters, you need to know a little about USCIRF. It was created 21 years ago at the instigation of Frank Wolf, then a Republican House member from Virginia passionately committed to defending “freedom of religion or belief” in the many countries where that right has been trampled. He also believed in bipartisanship, especially when it comes to foreign policy.
The nine USCIRF commissioners are appointed by either the president or a Republican or Democratic congressional leader. From 2016-18, I was one, appointed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Commissioners are charged with monitoring the state of religious freedom around the world, and making policy recommendations to the president, the secretary of State and Congress. It’s not a full-time job, and commissioners receive no compensation.
They are meant to be independent, supported by a paid, full-time staff. Though in close contact with the U.S. ambassador-at-large for international religious freedom and his deputies at the State Department, they needn’t always agree with them.

Tehran's leaders will be tempted to attack Gulf states again to divert attention from their domestic woes
Con Coughlin/The National/November 28/2019
Following the Saudi Aramco assault, regime loyalists think the best way to respond to internal political pressures is to engage in action further afield
As fresh evidence emerges of Iranian involvement in September’s devastating attack on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil infrastructure, there is a growing consensus among military commanders that Tehran could be planning further attacks.
The recent upsurge in Iranian acts of aggression in the Gulf was one of the dominant themes at the recent Manama Dialogue security conference organised by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. Gulf leaders in particular were keen to stress the need not to give in to Iran’s bullying tactics, with Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Jubeir warning in a speech to the conference that it was important world powers did not try to appease Tehran. “Appeasement did not work with Hitler. It will not work with the Iranian regime,” he warned.
The robust position being adopted by Gulf leaders to defend their interests has led to Kuwait and Qatar announcing that they are to join the US-led maritime coalition that aims to protect merchant shipping in the Arabian Gulf.
The International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC), as it is known, was set up in Bahrain in the summer in response to a number of Iranian acts of aggression in the Gulf, including the shooting down of a US Navy drone and the hijacking of the British-registered oil tanker Stena Impero.
Efforts to provide enhanced security in the Gulf come at a time when the top US general in the region is warning that the threat from Iran continues to rise, and that there is a strong possibility Tehran will seek to engage in further hostile acts against its Gulf neighbours and their allies.
“I think the strike on Saudi Aramco in September is pretty indicative of a nation that is behaving irresponsibly,” said General Kenneth McKenzie, the commander of US Central Command during an interview at the Manama Dialogue. “My judgment is that it is very possible they will attack again.”
Since May, the Pentagon has dispatched 14,000 additional troops, an aircraft carrier battle group, and tens of thousands of pounds of military equipment to the Middle East to respond to the Iranian threat.
But with the Iranian regime under intense domestic political pressure because of the disastrous state of the country’s economy, its leaders will be tempted to engage in further acts of aggression as a means of diverting attention away from their travails.
Efforts to provide enhanced security in the Gulf come at a time when the top US general in the region is warning that the threat from Iran continues to rise
Certainly one of the more striking features of the detailed report compiled by Reuters news agency into the Aramco attack – one of the most comprehensive accounts of Iran’s involvement published to date – is the claim that the assault was personally commissioned by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, as a means of responding to the US sanctions.
Despite Tehran’s initial insistence that the Iranian economy would not be adversely affected by US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal last year and impose a fresh round of sanctions, the reality has been very different as the regime has seen a disastrous run on the rial, with inflation currently running at around 40 per cent, causing sharp price rises in basic staples such as meat and vegetables.
Public discontent with the government’s stewardship of the economy has been running high for nearly a year, culminating in the latest nationwide protests over the recent hike in fuel prices. The protests and subsequent crackdown are thought to have led to more than 200 deaths and about 7,000 arrests.
Regime loyalists believe the best way of responding to internal pressure is to engage in action further afield, thought to be a key factor in Iran’s decision to target the Aramco facilities.
Planning for the attack is said to have originated at a meeting that took place in May in a heavily fortified compound in Tehran, which was attended by senior commanders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The main topic on the agenda was how to punish the US for withdrawing from the nuclear deal and imposing fresh sanctions.
The mood of the meeting was summed up by one commander, who declared: “It is time to take out our swords and teach them a lesson.”
Initially IRGC commanders raised the possibility of attacking high-value targets in the region such as American military bases. But this notion was eventually discounted over concerns that such an attack would provoke a devastating response from the US and its allies. Consequently Iranian commanders were keen to find a target that would not lead to a direct confrontation, with the result that the decision was taken to attack the oil facilities of Washington’s close ally, Saudi Arabia.
Iran’s determination to avoid a confrontation with the US can be seen in the suggestion made in the Reuters report that Mr Khamenei counselled that he would only grant his approval on the condition that Iranian forces took measures to avoid hitting any civilians or Americans.
Iranian officials, who have dismissed the findings of the report, continue to deny their country’s involvement, even though both the Saudis and US believe Tehran was responsible, with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo condemning it as “an act of war”.
But Washington’s failure to respond militarily to either the Aramco attack or other acts of Iranian aggression in the Gulf has led many military commanders to conclude that there is a strong likelihood Iran will undertake further attacks in the coming months.
The big risk for Tehran in maintaining this policy of aggression in the region is that any miscalculation could result in a major escalation of hostilities with the US and its allies.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph’s defence and foreign affairs editor

Realism in short supply as UK election approaches
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/November 28/2019
The 2019 UK election campaign has now entered its final sprint as all the political parties have released their manifestos. Interestingly, they go well beyond Brexit, painting a picture of what Britain should look like by the middle of the century.
However, Brexit does loom large. The Conservatives never tire of declaring that “getting Brexit done” equals fulfilling the democratic mandate of the 2016 referendum. Taking back control of money, laws and borders is a large part of their manifesto. They say they will take the country out of the EU by Jan. 31 and that Boris Johnson will have negotiated a favorable trade deal with the EU by December next year. The transition period will end then in any case — again opening the backdoor to a no-deal Brexit. The Conservatives claim that being out of the EU would free up resources to spend on many other priorities.
The Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party (SNP) advocate stopping Brexit. They are both in favor of a second referendum but, when Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson asserted she would campaign to stop Brexit even if that referendum returned a leave vote, it was not well received by voters and she had to backtrack somewhat. The Lib Dems managed to convince several MPs from both Labour and the Tories to join them and their popularity surged in late summer. However, they have lost points since their party conference and their rhetoric has turned more moderate. Still, the Lib Dems claim a £50 billion ($64 billion) “remain bonus,” although it remains unclear exactly how they calculated that eye-watering sum.
The SNP also insist on a second referendum on Scottish independence, especially if the UK exits the EU. Leader Nicola Sturgeon insists that Scotland would then be free to join the EU on its own. While that may go down well with her voters, there is no official position from the EU on the subject as of yet.
Labour claims that Jeremy Corbyn would negotiate — within three months — a “better” deal with the EU than either Theresa May or Johnson managed, and then put this deal to the people with an option to remain. Corbyn would remain neutral in the referendum campaign, allowing his flock to vote with their conscience. Elections are the time for politicians to make promises. The British people have had enough of 10 years of austerity. This explains why all parties promise a spending spree. The Tories say they will put 20,000 new policemen on the street, refurbish 20 hospitals, build new ones, hire 50,000 nurses and put an extra £1 billion into social care. They also promise to fund schools to the tune of £14 billion. The Tories promise to make the UK a net zero carbon emissions country by 2050, delivering 90 percent of electricity and 50 percent of heat from renewable sources. They promise to spend 3 percent of annual gross domestic product on innovation and support the “Northern Powerhouse” proposal, including high-speed transport links. The Conservatives are the only ones to so far produce a costing document, although it looks optimistic.
The Lib Dems and the Greens are the most radical in promising a green new deal. The Lib Dems promise a 10-year emergency program to cut greenhouse gases and offer big investments in schools, with free childcare for all. The National Health Service (NHS) and social care are big priorities for them. However, it is doubtful the promised remain bonus will be enough to fund their ambitious program.
Not since the Margaret Thatcher years has a party and presumptive prime minister proposed embarking on as ambitious a program of economic and social reengineering as Labour does now. Its manifesto is entitled “It’s time for real change” and proposes the renationalization of railways, telecoms, mail and energy. It wants to increase the health budget by 4.3 percent per annum and put more money into social care and schools. A Labour government would also bring free high-speed internet access to all corners of the country. The Tories claim the Labour program would result in a spending increase of £1.2 trillion, the equivalent of an average of £2,400 for every taxpayer. Not so, says Labour. It claims that a wealth tax and tax hikes for high earners would fund their ambitious program. A classic “he said, she said” scenario.
The British people have had enough of 10 years of austerity. This explains why all parties promise a spending spree.
Few voters will look at how the aspirations and promises can be funded, and none of the parties are too clear about that either. It is more of an “it will be all right on the night, just trust us” approach. While it is good and necessary to improve public services after a decade of them having been scaled down due to austerity budgets, a realistic approach is also important. In the end, politics is the art of the possible.
The Dec. 12 vote is easily the most important general election for a generation. There are alliances, such as the pact between the Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru not to compete against each other in 60 seats, and the Brexit Party not fielding candidates in Conservative-held constituencies. Former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair asked the electorate to engage in tactical voting to avoid either Johnson or Corbyn gaining a majority, both of whom he sees as a danger to the future of the country. If we are to believe the latest YouGov poll, the Tories are in the lead.
In the end, voters will have to choose between the Brexit options on offer; while they can also express a preference on more or less influence of the state. The latter choices remain unclear though, because none of the programs are realistically costed or seem particularly achievable.
*Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macroeconomist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources

Iran needs to be stopped in its tracks
Dr. Hamdan Al-Shehri/Arab News/November 28/2019
Smoke billows following an attack on the Aramco facility in the eastern city of Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia. (Reuters)
An investigation by the Reuters news agency this week revealed that Iranian military leaders developed the plans to strike the Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais. Details of possible strikes were discussed at length in at least five meetings and final approval was issued in September.
According to three officials quoted in the Reuters story, “these meetings took place at a secure location inside a compound in southern Tehran, and (Supreme Leader Ali) Khamenei attended one of those meetings held at his residence, also inside the compound.” The story added: “One of those at the meetings was Yahya Rahim Safavi, Khamenei’s top military adviser and deputy to Qassem Soleimani, who leads the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ foreign and secret military operations.”
The official familiar with the decision-making process said that “a Saudi seaport was among the possible targets discussed at the outset.” The plan then evolved into attacking the two oil facilities because they would make headlines and do economic damage while simultaneously delivering a strong message.
One official said that agreement on targeting Saudi Aramco was “almost unanimous, with the idea being to demonstrate Iran’s military capability.”
What Reuters has uncovered is not surprising. Tehran’s aggressive behavior in the region is well known. It is both the largest state supporter of terrorism and the greatest destabilizing influence on the region’s security and stability. The Sept. 14 attacks on Saudi oil installations were not in fact a response to the US-imposed economic sanctions but they were Iran’s way of protecting its nuclear program. The attacks mirror Iran’s ongoing support for terrorism and ballistic threats.
Some may attempt to use this nuclear deal narrative in order to justify Tehran’s behavior, but Saudi oil facilities were also targeted in the 1980s. Iran’s support for terrorist militias in the region and their interventions remain clear obstacles.
As usual, however, Tehran is taking advantage of events to further its aims. It would not have dared do so without international silence concerning its terrorism and the failure to punish it. Iran has gone so far in the past as to increase its aggression by shooting down a US drone and seizing a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 percent of global oil traffic passes.
There is an opportunity to discipline Tehran today in light of the growing demonstrations sweeping Arab countries and Iran itself.
Tehran has also announced the creation of stockpiles of enriched uranium, which is a clear violation of the 2015 nuclear deal and represents the resumption of its nuclear weapons program. We have heard, in the past few days, a frank criticism of the soft attitude toward Iran from French Defense Minister Florence Parly. In a speech at the annual Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, the minister criticized Washington for not responding to the attacks committed by Iran in recent months. “The booby-trapping of vessels proceeded unchallenged and a drone was shot down,” Parly said. “And these things happened with no action taken and major oil facilities were bombed, so where will it stop?”
Indeed, there is an opportunity to discipline Tehran today in light of the growing demonstrations sweeping Arab countries and Iran itself. The Iranian regime is responsible for devastation and destruction in the region. Everybody wants to contain it and its terror and dismantle its militias, which are responsible for great destruction in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Or will we let opportunities pass and so repeat the mistake that happened with North Korea, when the US was not willing to strike a nuclear facility there? Instead there were talks between the US and North Korea that worked out to the advantage of Pyongyang.
Since 2006, there have been four nuclear crises and we know that Iran has the capability to become more dangerous because of its terrorist militias roaming the region. If Tehran becomes nuclear, it will not be deterred by anyone from handing that power to its militias, and the proliferation of nuclear weapons will become a dangerous reality.
*Dr. Hamdan Al-Shehri is a political analyst and international relations scholar. Twitter: @DrHamsheri