LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 24/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
When you give alms, do not let your left hand know what your right hand is doing so that your alms may be done in secret; and your Father who sees in secret will reward you.
”Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 06/01-04: “‘Beware of practising your piety before others in order to be seen by them; for then you have no reward from your Father in heaven. ‘So whenever you give alms, do not sound a trumpet before you, as the hypocrites do in the synagogues and in the streets, so that they may be praised by others. Truly I tell you, they have received their reward. But when you give alms, do not let your left hand know what your right hand is doing, so that your alms may be done in secret; and your Father who sees in secret will reward you.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 23-24/2019
Mystery Grows over Trump Administration Hold on Lebanon Aid
Lebanese protesters pack streets to mark independence day
Hizbullah Official Accuses U.S. of Meddling in Lebanon
Protesters Close Exchange Shops in Tripoli as Uprising Enters Day 38
Feltman: Hizbullah’s Repute Dwindled under Protests
Germany again Deports Lebanese Convict Back to Beirut
Lebanon’s Interior Minister Blames Politicians, Protesters for Crisis
Lebanon's Political Impasse Reflected in Chilly Ties between Hariri, Aoun and Berri
Al-Rahi: What citizens have done yesterday in Martyrs' Square is greatest proof that our people are stronger than the problem they face
Jumblatt says some ambassadors and foreign ministers have joined in on the cabinet formation track
Protest Movement continues with same momentum in Tripoli's
Mouawad calls for a rescue government of specialists
Claudine Aoun Roukoz, chairs Arab Women's Organization meeting in Cairo: Momentum of change in Lebanese women is present in all women in the Arab
Mystery grows over Lebanon aid hold-up as impeachment looms

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 23-24/2019
A Judicial Attempt to Disqualify Netanyahu as Prime Minister
Majority of Israelis think Benjamin Netanyahu should resign
Saudi's Al Jubeir warns against appeasement of Iranian regime
Turkey Announces Bounty For Dahlan’s Arrest
Iranians Struggle to Adjust to Life Offline, Resort to Old Ways
US Central Command Says Anti-ISIS Operations to Pick Up
Syria: Car Bomb Kills 9 in Tal Abyad
Sisi Calls For Turning Africa Into ‘Global Industrialization Hub’
On Iraq visit, Pence reassures Kurds and discusses protests with prime minister
Pope arrives in Japan, fulfilling decadesold missionary dream

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 23-24/2019
Burning the USA flag in Tyr By Hezbollah is condemned/Elias Bejjani/November 23/2019
Lebanon Is Totally Occupied by Iran …Help Liberate The Land Of The Holy Cedars/Elias Bejjani/November 22/2019
Enjoy the sight of the US and Lebanese flags, side by side./Dr.Walid Phares/November 23/2019
Hezbollah MPs step up attacks on US over Lebanon ‘meddling’/Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 23/2019
Arabic Rap: A form of revolutionary expression/Maysaa Ajjan/Annahar/November 23/2019
Lebanon protests undermine Hezbollah’s sectarian narrative/Simon Speakman Cordall/The Arab Weekly/November 23/2019
Sooner or later, Iran's regime will lose its grip/Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/November 23/2019
Lebanese abroad look for ways to get involved in protest movement/Justin Salhani/The Arab Weekly/November 23/2019
*Analysis/Iran Unrest Gave Israel a Window to Strike. Now the Danger Lurks Elsewhere/Amos Harel/Haaretz/November 24/2019
US Presence in Syria is Crucial for its Role in the Region/Charles Lister/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 23/2019
The 'Thought Police' Come to Norway/Bruce Bawer/Gatestone Institute/November 23/ 2019
Iran’s regime in most serious crisis since 1979 as it cracks down on unrest/Thomas Seibert/The Arab Weekly/November 23/2019
Iran and the third wave of protests/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/November 23/2019
Khamenei’s Domestic and Foreign Response Options to the Protests/Patrick Clawson/The Washington Institute./November 23/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 23-24/2019
Burning the USA flag in Tyr By Hezbollah is condemned
Elias Bejjani/November 23/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/80807/%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%b3%d9%85%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b9%d8%a8%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%8a%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%82%d9%88%d9%86/
Hezbollah has nothing to do with Lebanon or the Lebanese people.
This criminal and terrorist armed organization is Iranian 100% and savagely occupies Lebanon since 2005, while taking the Lebanese peace loving Shiite community a hostage by force and through terrorism and brutality.
The Lebanese people look at the USA as a great friendly country and appreciates very much its on going support for Lebanon’s freedom, democracy, sovereignty and independence.
Meanwhile Hezbollah is a terrorist Iranian militia and does nor speak on behalf of the Lebanese or represent them in any way.
In this context, burning the USA flag in Tyr is condemned by each and every sovereign and patriotic Lebanese in both occupied Lebanon and Diaspora.

Lebanon Is Totally Occupied by Iran …Help Liberate The Land Of The Holy Cedars
Elias Bejjani/November 22/2019
لبنان وطن الحرف والرسالة والأرز المقدس تحتله إيران وميليشياتها وهو يحتاج لمساعدة العالم الحر ليستعيد استقلاله
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/80773/elias-bejjani-lebanon-is-totally-occupied-by-iran-help-liberate-the-land-of-the-holy-cedars/
Lebanon, the land of the Holy Cedars and 7000 years deeply rooted glory, holiness and history is sadly an occupied, impoverished, and oppressed country.
The stone age savage occupier is the terrorist Iranian armed Hezbollah militia.
This terrorist armed militia controls totally Lebanon’s decision making process on all levels and in all domains including the peace and war one.
Meanwhile the majority of the Lebanese officials, as well as the politicians are mere mercenaries appointed by Hezbollah and like puppets carry its wishes and orders.
The USA and other democratic countries can help Lebanon and the Lebanese people in reclaiming back their confiscated independence and stolen country through a strong, loud and official stance in practically and not only rhetorically supporting the immediate implementation of the three UN resolutions that addresses Lebanon’s crisis: the armistice agreement, 1559 and 1701.
The Lebanese people after years (since 1975) of Syrian, Palestinian, and current Iranian occupations and oppression are unable on their own to liberate their country without a real and clear practical support from the UN and all the democratic countries.. Help liberate Lebanon.
In this realm I quote Dr. Walid Phares’s response to ambassador Jeffrey Feltman’s recent testimony before the House Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and International Terrorism on “What’s Next for Lebanon? Examining the Implications of Current Protests.
Ambassador Feltman told Congress said:
“Over the long term, U.S. interests in Lebanon would be best protected by what the Lebanese people indicate that they want: a prosperous, democratic, independent, fully sovereign, peaceful Lebanon, reliant (including for security) on effective, transparent government institutions subject to public accountability. With the right government in place and with renewed international support, this should not be impossible to achieve.”
Dr. Walid Phares’s response:
Yes Mr. Ambassador that’s what a majority of Lebanese want. But between now and then, there is a blocking force that will oppose moving Lebanon in that direction. It is a force feared by many and countering it has no strategies, in official policies. A force that is obstructing prosperity, reform, sovereignty, and protective of corruption. And on top of it there are no plans to deal with it. One can ignore it and pretend that it is not there, that eventually it will just go away. But that is not reality…
From our Diaspora, we hail and command the courageous and patriotic Lebanese citizens who bravely for the last 37 days are involved in the current ongoing demonstrations and sit-ins in occupied Lebanon.
May Almighty God bless, safeguard Lebanon and grant its oppressed people the power and will to free their country and reclaim it back from Hezbollah, the Iranian terrorist Occupier.
Click here to read ambassador Jeffrey Feltman’s testimony text before the House Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and International Terrorism on “What’s Next for Lebanon? Examining the Implications of Current Protests.
In regards to the Iranian occupied Lebanon the help that the country and its oppressed people need from the USA, Europe and all other free countries is the immediate implementation of the UN three resolutions: the armistice agreement, 1559 and 1701. The USA sanctions on the Mullahs' regime for almost 40 years did not actually make any difference except in hurting more the Iranian people. Sanctions on Hezbollah while it occupies Lebanon and controls fully its rulers is not going to change the current status quo..although sanctions on Lebanese politicians who are Hezbollah puppets can help in deterring them.

Enjoy the sight of the US and Lebanese flags, side by side.
Dr.Walid Phares/November 23/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/80807/%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%b3%d9%85%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b9%d8%a8%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%8a%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%82%d9%88%d9%86/
Great post (by Fadia Samaan) in response to the Hezbollah and Jihadi cohorts who have burned the US flag in south Lebanon. Let them know that close to 1.8 Lebanese Americans oppose terror in their mother land, support the Lebanese people and the Lebanese army, and love their adopted country America.
1.8 million Lebanese Americans (Minus the Hezb supporters in the US) plus 2 million in the #lebaneseprotests equal 3.8 million.
Enjoy the sight of the US and Lebanese flags, side by side.
We haven't counted the other countries of the Diaspora yet.

Mystery Grows over Trump Administration Hold on Lebanon Aid
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 23/2019
The Trump administration is withholding more than $100 million in U.S. military assistance to Lebanon that has been approved by Congress and is favored by his national security team, an assertion of executive control of foreign aid that is similar to the delay in support for Ukraine at the center of the impeachment inquiry. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday congratulated Lebanon as the country marked its independence day but made no mention of the hold-up in aid that State Department and Pentagon officials have complained about for weeks. It came up in impeachment testimony by David Hale, the No. 3 official in the State Department, according to the transcript of the closed-door hearing released this week. He described growing consternation among diplomats as the administration would neither release the aid nor provide an explanation for the hold. "People started asking: What's the problem?" Hale told the impeachment investigators. The White House and the Office of Management and Budget have declined to comment on the matter. The $105 million in Foreign Military Funding for the Lebanese Armed Forces has languished for months, awaiting approval from the Office of Management and Budget despite congressional approval, an early September notification to lawmakers that it would be spent and overwhelming support for it from the Pentagon, State Department and National Security Council. As with the Ukraine assistance, OMB has not explained the reason for the delay. However, unlike Ukraine, there is no suggestion that President Donald Trump is seeking "a favor" from Lebanon to release it, according to five officials familiar with the matter. The mystery has only added to the consternation of the national security community, which believes the assistance that pays for American-made military equipment for the Lebanese army is essential, particularly as Lebanon reels in financial chaos and mass protests. The aid is important to counter Iran's influence in Lebanon, which is highlighted by the presence of the Iranian-supported Shiite Hizbullah movement in the government and the group's fighters, the officials said.
There is opposition to aid to the Lebanese army from outside the NSC. Pro-Israel hawks in Congress have long sought to de-fund the Lebanese military, arguing that it has been compromised by Hizbullah, which the U.S. designates as a "foreign terrorist organization."
But the Pentagon and State Department reject that view, saying the army is the only independent Lebanese institution capable of resisting Hizbullah.
Outside experts agree.
Although there are some issues, Jeffrey Feltman, a former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, said this week that the assistance should be released. "The U.S. has some legitimate concerns about the Lebanese Armed Forces' performance, but the FMF should resume quickly and publicly: both because of the program's merit in terms of improving the LAF's counterterrorism performance but also to undermine the Hizbullah-Iranian-Syrian-Russian narrative that the U.S. is unreliable," Feltman he told the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Tuesday. Hale told the impeachment inquiry there were parallels between the Lebanon and Ukraine aid in that the White House refused to offer an explanation for the delays. He said inquiries into the Lebanon assistance since June have been met with silence. "We just understand there are differences of opinion on this, or there had been," he said. "And the matter now rests with OMB. I don't think that the differences currently exist outside of OMB." The Lebanon aid was put into Trump's budget last winter and the State Department notified Congress on Sept. 5 that it would be spent even though the OMB had not yet signed off on it. The State Department has offered only a cryptic response to queries, defending the assistance but also calling for Lebanese authorities to implement economic reforms and rein in corruption. "As the sole legitimate defense arm of the government of Lebanon, the United States remains committed to strengthening the capacity of the Lebanese Armed Forces to secure Lebanon's borders, defend its sovereignty, and preserve its stability," the department said. "The Lebanon FMF has been apportioned by the administration. No Lebanese expenditures or purchases of military materiel with FMF have been delayed.""Apportionment" is a technical term that refers to federal funds that have been appropriated by Congress and obligated by the administration but have not yet been released. However, several officials said National Security Council staff had deliberately tried to run an end-around of the Pentagon and State Department by demanding a signed presidential determination to release the aid and then slow-walking delivery of the finding to the Oval Office for Trump's signature. The officials who were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity."It's beyond the pale," said one official. "This is people at the NSC and OMB trying to insert their own personal ideologies into something that most everyone else supports as a national security interest."

Lebanese protesters pack streets to mark independence day
Reuters, Beirut/Saturday, 23 November 2019
Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets in Lebanon on Friday to mark independence day with a fresh wave of demonstrations against a ruling elite accused of rampant corruption and steering the country into deep crisis. The unprecedented wave of nationwide protests erupted five weeks ago, leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri on October 29. Despite a worsening economic crisis, deeply divided politicians have yet to agree on a new government. Protesters waving Lebanese flags packed central Beirut’s Martyrs Square where music blasted into the night. Many protesters said they felt like they were celebrating independence for the first time. “This year independence day is different. Before, they marred it with their system of sharing power and corruption. Today, we are demanding a clean independence and a country where we can live in dignity and pride,” said a protester who gave her name as Hind. “It’s important to show up today of all days and be united as a country. Everyone is realizing what true independence looks like,” said Lydia, 21, who was protesting in Beirut. A military parade usually held on the seafront near Martyrs Square was relocated to the defense ministry where Hariri, still serving as prime minister in a caretaker capacity since his resignation, attended a low-key ceremony with President Michel Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Hariri is at odds with Aoun, Berri and the powerful Shi’ite group Hezbollah over the make-up of the next government. Broadcaster al-Jadeed noted an “unusual” silence between Hariri and Berri while other members of the government chatted to each other. Lebanon is facing its worst economic crisis since the 1975-90 civil war, rooted in years of state corruption and waste. The crisis has spread to the financial system where the pegged Lebanese pound has weakened, dollars have become scarce and banks have imposed controls to prevent capital flight. Aoun, in a televised speech marking independence day on Thursday, said it was “not the time for speeches, words and celebrations”. “It is time for work, serious and and diligent work because we are in a race against time.”

Hizbullah Official Accuses U.S. of Meddling in Lebanon
Naharnet/November 23/2019
Hizbullah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem on Saturday said the United States was “delaying” the formation of a government in Lebanon, stressing that Hizbullah “will not be dragged into sedition,” media reports quoted him as saying. “The first obstruction in the formation of Lebanon’s government is America, because it wants a government that resembles it while we want a government that resembles the Lebanese people, and the needs of the Lebanese people,” said Qassem. He said he does not see any signs of a civil war in Lebanon. "The economic crisis that has spread to the banking system has hit Hizbullah’s Shiite environment as any Lebanese citizen of any sect, but although our public is affected, like all Lebanese, that does not mean it will be a success for those who initiated the crisis," he said. “Hizbullah has supported popular calls to put all corrupt officials on trial, no matter who they are,” he said.

Protesters Close Exchange Shops in Tripoli as Uprising Enters Day 38
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 23/2019
Protesters closed exchange houses during a demonstration in the northern city of Tripoli, as the country grapples with nationwide protests entering 38th day demanding an overhaul of the whole political class. The protesters say exchange houses are trading US dollars to the Lebanese pound contrary to the local currency peg set by the central bank. Earlier this month, Lebanon's central bank said it would strive to maintain the local currency's peg to the US dollar and ease access to the greenback after weeks of mass protests. Already facing an economic crisis, Lebanon's financial troubles have worsened since economically driven mass protests erupted nationwide last month, paralyzing the country and keeping banks shuttered for two weeks. Depositors have rushed to withdraw their money since the banks reopened last week, with the country's lenders imposing varying capital controls that differ from bank to bank, fueling the turmoil.Though it's still pegged at 1,500 pounds to the dollar, the Lebanese pound is trading at up to 1,900 to the dollar on the black market, a devaluation of nearly 30% from the official rate.

Feltman: Hizbullah’s Repute Dwindled under Protests
Naharnet/November 23/2019
Jeffrey Feltman, former US ambassador to Lebanon, said that Hizbullah’s reputation “dwindled” throughout the demonstrations in Lebanon and has become part of the political problem in the country, the Saudi Asharq al-Awsat daily reported on Saturday.
In a statement he made to the daily, Feltman said: “We have seen and listened to Nasrallah’s speeches, in four of them he demanded the demonstrators to go back home but they did not, when he asked the Shiites (community) to get out of the streets, some listened to him but many paid him no attention, Lebanon has never seen it before.”Feltman pointed out that Hizbullah’s attempt to “discredit” the demonstrators and their intentions undermined the reputation they had worked on for many years, and today they are like other political parties in Lebanon that have lost credibility, reported the daily.
Feltman described the uprising in Lebanon as “inspiring” and different in many aspects from the March 14, 2005 demonstrations, which he believes were “politicized.”Today’s demonstrations are strong because they are driven by “purely humanitarian and livinghood motives,” he said.
He expressed hope that Lebanon’s political class lends a listening ear to the demonstrators to initiate the required reforms, fight corruption and activate accountability in order for Lebanon to recover from its economic crisis by attracting investors. He urged the US administration to release millions in U.S. military assistance to Lebanon because the freeze “serves Hizbullahh and the Iranian and Russian influence in Lebanon.”“The US government should provide an international aid package to Lebanon for reform,” he said. Feltman was keen to point out that he did not represent the official American opinion, and that he spoke only as an expert.

Germany again Deports Lebanese Convict Back to Beirut
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 23/2019
German authorities have again deported a Lebanese man who was convicted of drug dealing and deported earlier this year but then returned to Germany. The German news agency dpa reported that Ibrahim Miri was handed over to Lebanese authorities on Saturday in Beirut.
Miri was earlier deported to Lebanon in July and was banned from re-entering Europe's visa-free Schengen travel area, which includes Germany. However, he somehow reappeared in the German city of Bremen last month, applied for asylum and was arrested. After his asylum application was rejected, he tried to appeal but a Bremen administrative court on Friday rejected Miri's appeal. His case has made headlines in Germany, with some alleging that Miri's ability to return to Germany showed the country's allegedly lax handling of asylum requests by criminals.

Lebanon’s Interior Minister Blames Politicians, Protesters for Crisis
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 23 November, 2019
Lebanese Caretaker Interior Minister Raya el-Hassan has held both the country’s political leaders and anti-government protesters responsible for the deadlock. In remarks to the press after attending a truncated military parade at the defense ministry in Yarze, Hassan said: “I am concerned over the developments in the country. We haven’t yet reached common ground with the protesters.”She blamed “the two sides” for the stalemate. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on Oct. 29 following an unprecedented wave of demonstrations against proposed taxes on WhatsApp calls that turned into a condemnation of the political elite. On Friday, the protesters held a boisterous parade at downtown Beirut’s Martyrs Square. “The parade in Yarze is the parade of the Republic and it was an honor to attend it. Yet a segment of the population has revolted to ask for its rights, and I do understand their grievances,” Hassan said.
She added that protesters “have the right to demonstrate and carry out a civilian parade.”Asked about on-and-off road closures by the demonstrators, Hassan said that since day one her instructions against the use of force have been clear. “But if roads must be opened, then appropriate measures must be taken,” she added.

Lebanon's Political Impasse Reflected in Chilly Ties between Hariri, Aoun and Berri
Beirut - Nazeer Rida/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 23 November, 2019
The somber mood at a brief parade at the defense ministry on the occasion of Lebanon’s Independence Day was a clear reflection of growing tension between President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri. This mood came amid a warning from the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis, that Lebanon urgently needs to form a government seen as competent by the people, supported by political parties and capable of implementing deep reforms. “High level meetings in Washington with the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Grave concerns about the rapidly deepening economic and social crisis in Lebanon and lack of proper management of the situation,” Kubis wrote on Twitter. The top leadership attended the truncated military parade which was relocated to the headquarters of the defense ministry from central Beirut, occupied by anti-government protesters.A little over a dozen regiments marched before the country´s president, parliament speaker and prime minister, who sat under a red canopy. The three only exchanged a few words and left separately. An official celebration at the presidential palace in Baabda was canceled. There were no foreign dignitaries in attendance and no display of tanks or equipment. Despite official statements that there have been contacts among political parties to resolve the country’s deadlock, a leading source from Hariri’s Mustaqbal Movement told Asharq Al-Awsat that relations between the country’s top leaders are almost frozen.

Al-Rahi: What citizens have done yesterday in Martyrs' Square is greatest proof that our people are stronger than the problem they face
NNA//November 23/2019
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, commended Saturday the livelihood of the Lebanese citizens in their active participation in yesterday's civil parade at Beirut's Martyr's Square marking the Independence Day celebrations. "What citizens have done yesterday in Martyrs' Square is the greatest evidence that our people are stronger than the challenges confronting them," he said. "Despite the political, financial and economic crisis, we do have spiritual strength, faith, hope and determination," al-Rahi reiterated. The Patriarch's words came during the prayer of the Rosary devoted to Lebanon, which he held in Bkirki this evening. "With great hope and joy, we continue our prayers beyond all the fears we face, for with God, man is stronger than all fears," the Patriarch asserted. "There is nothing difficult before the Lord, no matter how many locked doors, black clouds and deadlocks...and none of us knows how the Lord intervenes," he said. Al-Rahi considered that this is evident in the hope that exists in the hearts of the Lebanese, reflected in their positive, peaceful and civilized uprising, which is concentrated and is getting stronger day by day. "The value of our prayer is to seek power through the Lord...We must keep our faith, our morals and our values, and the hope that is in our hearts," the Patriarch concluded.

Jumblatt says some ambassadors and foreign ministers have joined in on the cabinet formation track
NNA//November 23/2019
Even some active ambassadors and some foreign ministers have joined in on the cabinet formation track, further increasing the complexity of the matter alongside the political class that refuses to compromise and sticks to its survival," tweeted Progressive Socialist Party Chief, Walid Jumblatt, this evening. "This is my opinion as an observer who has witnessed the experience of the International Tribunal and the polarization of forces around it," he added.

Protest Movement continues with same momentum in Tripoli's
NNA//November 23/2019
The protest movement in Abdul Hamid Karami Square in Tripoli has maintained its momentum since October 17, as crowds of citizens from the city and its surrounding northern areas flocked to the scene this evening, amidst popular and national songs playing in the background.
A sit-in also took place today, during which protesters complained about the increasing prices on various products under the pretext of the dollar rise.

Mouawad calls for a rescue government of specialists
NNA/November 23/2019
"Independence Movement" Chief, MP Michel Mouawad, renewed Saturday his call for "the formation of a government comprised fully of specialists, so as not to engage in the game of politics."He underlined the need for a cabinet that would have a positive impact, both internally through managing the country's difficult economic crisis, and externally in terms of the Arab and international community and markets. "What is required is a political solution, and the first key is a rescue government," Mouawad emphasized in an interview with Sky News Arabia. "We are not in normal conditions, and we do not have the luxury of discussing whether or not to hold the parliamentary consultations, but rather we need to form a government today before tomorrow. Each delay increases the rift between the Lebanese in the street, and between the Lebanese and the state, and brings Lebanon closer to chaos and bankruptcy, turning it into a regional and international arena of conflict," Mouawad cautioned. "The roadmap must take into account the reasons that led us to this situation. Lebanon cannot refrain from distancing itself. We have the right to defend ourselves, but there must be a defense strategy managed by the Lebanese state," he said. Mouawad called for "keeping pace with the revolution through adopting serious steps to fight corruption.""This requires an independent judiciary and laws to lift immunities and recover looted funds, alongside economic and financial reforms," he asserted. "The Lebanese are demanding their basic elements of livelihood," Mouawad concluded, stressing that "Lebanon, despite the difficult challenges, can emerge from the state of collapse to prosperity, but this requires a decision, effort, and confidence, internally and externally."

Claudine Aoun Roukoz, chairs Arab Women's Organization meeting in Cairo: Momentum of change in Lebanese women is present in all women in the Arab
NNA/November 23/2019
Head of the National Commission for Lebanese Women (NCLW), Arab Women Organization's Supreme Council Head, Claudine Aoun Roukoz, chaired Saturday the Council's ninth meeting held in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, with the participation of various women from Arab countries.
Addressing the attendees, Aoun Roukoz considered that "the change momentum force recently demonstrated by Lebanese women is an energy that is stored in all women across the Arab world.""This energy can push our countries forward to prove the vitality of our peoples," she said. "Yes, our societies are developing and the women and girls of our country are carrying the banner of advancement in the fulfillment of the hopes that our Organization aspires to achieve," Aoun Roukoz added. "Recent developments in a number of our countries have reflected the key, positive role that women have to play in order to reach social transformations," she went on, noting that "these transformations will peacefully move our societies from the economic, political and cultural stagnation to become a vibrant state of youthful impulse." "Women's efforts to realize their rights in our Arab countries contribute to raising awareness in our communities towards giving attention to the needs of society as a whole," she asserted.Aoun Roukoz commended herein the efforts exerted by the Council members, and all the Arab women who, according to their environment and living circumstances, face challenges and difficulties to improve the conditions of their lives and the lives of those around them.

Mystery grows over Lebanon aid hold-up as impeachment looms
Associated Press/November 23/2019
But the Pentagon and State Department reject that view, saying the army is the only independent Lebanese institution capable of resisting Hezbollah.
WASHINGTON: The Trump administration is withholding more than $100 million in U.S. military assistance to Lebanon that has been approved by Congress and is favored by his national security team, an assertion of executive control of foreign aid that is similar to the delay in support for Ukraine at the center of the impeachment inquiry. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday congratulated Lebanon as the country marked its independence day but made no mention of the hold-up in aid that the State Department and Pentagon officials have complained about for weeks.
It came up in impeachment testimony by David Hale, the No. 3 official in the State Department, according to the transcript of the closed-door hearing released this week. He described growing consternation among diplomats as the administration would neither release the aid nor provide an explanation for the hold. The White House and the Office of Management and Budget have declined to comment on the matter.
The $105 million in Foreign Military Funding for the Lebanese Armed Forces has languished for months, awaiting approval from the Office of Management and Budget despite congressional approval, an early September notification to lawmakers that it would be spent and overwhelming support for it from the Pentagon, State Department, and National Security Council.
As with the Ukraine assistance, OMB has not explained the reason for the delay. However, unlike Ukraine, there is no suggestion that President Donald Trump is seeking “a favor” from Lebanon to release it, according to five officials familiar with the matter.
The mystery has only added to the consternation of the national security community, which believes the assistance that pays for American-made military equipment for the Lebanese army is essential, particularly as Lebanon reels in financial chaos and mass protests.
The aid is important to counter Iran’s influence in Iran, which is highlighted by the presence of the Iranian-supported Shiite Hezbollah movement in the government and the group’s militias, the officials said.
There is opposition to aid to the Lebanese army from outside the NSC. Pro-Israel hawks in Congress have long sought to de-fund the Lebanese military, arguing that it has been compromised by Hezbollah, which the U.S. designates as a “foreign terrorist organization.”
But the Pentagon and State Department reject that view, saying the army is the only independent Lebanese institution capable of resisting Hezbollah.
Outside experts agree.
Although there are some issues, Jeffrey Feltman, a former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, said this week that the assistance should be released.
“The U.S. has some legitimate concerns about the Lebanese Armed Forces’ performance, but the FMF should resume quickly and publicly: both because of the program’s merit in terms of improving the LAF’s counterterrorism performance but also to undermine the Hezbollah-Iranian-Syrian-Russian narrative that the U.S. is unreliable,” Feltman he told the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Tuesday.
Hale told the impeachment inquiry there were parallels between the Lebanon and Ukraine aid in that the White House refused to offer an explanation for the delays.
He said inquiries into Lebanon's assistance since June have been met with silence.
“We just understand there are differences of opinion on this, or there had been,” he said. “And the matter now rests with OMB. I don’t think that the differences currently exist outside of OMB.”
The Lebanon aid was put into Trump’s budget last winter and the State Department notified Congress on Sept. 5 that it would be spent even though the OMB had not yet signed off on it.
The State Department has offered only a cryptic response to queries, defending the assistance but also calling for Lebanese authorities to implement economic reforms and rein in corruption.
“As the sole legitimate defense arm of the government of Lebanon, the United States remains committed to strengthening the capacity of the Lebanese Armed Forces to secure Lebanon’s borders, defend its sovereignty, and preserve its stability,” the department said. “The Lebanon FMF has been apportioned by the administration. No Lebanese expenditures or purchases of military materiel with FMF have been delayed.”
“Apportionment” is a technical term that refers to federal funds that have been appropriated by Congress and obligated by the administration but have not yet been released.
However, several officials said National Security Council staff had deliberately tried to run an end-around of the Pentagon and State Department by demanding a signed presidential determination to release the aid and then slow-walking delivery of the finding to the Oval Office for Trump’s signature. The officials who were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.
“It’s beyond the pale,” said one official. “This is people at the NSC and OMB trying to insert their own personal ideologies into something that most everyone else supports as a national security interest.”

Hezbollah MPs step up attacks on US over Lebanon ‘meddling’
Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 23/2019
BEIRUT: Hezbollah and its allies in the Lebanese government on Saturday widened their attacks on the US over alleged meddling in the country’s political future. In an interview with the Central News Agency (Al-Markazia), Muhammad Fneish, Hezbollah’s minister in the caretaker government, referred to “foreign interference in our affairs” and said: “We want to form a sovereign government that is distant from US desires and foreign accounts.”He said that recent statements by former US ambassador to Lebanon Jeffrey Feltman had “complicated matters.”Feltman told a US House of Representatives hearing last Tuesday that most Lebanese people have lost faith in Hezbollah and that there is growing anger against Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil for providing “Christian cover” for the militant party. The comments sparked outrage in Lebanon with Hezbollah and its allies accusing the former envoy of “interfering in Lebanon’s internal affairs.”
Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem joined the criticism on Saturday, accusing the US of “meddling in the formation of a new Lebanese government.”“Hezbollah is determined not to fall into strife,” he said, adding: “I do not see signs of a civil war in Lebanon.”As widespread street protests in the country entered their 38th day, MP Salim Aoun, a member of the parliamentary bloc loyal to the president and the Free Patriotic Movement, claimed that protesters have created a “political movement.”“No matter what we give them, nothing pleases them,” he said, accusing international bodies of backing the demonstrations.
“We know who is intervening and what their goals are,” Aoun said. Amal MP and Hezbollah ally Ali Bazzi asked: “Is it true that there is aim to create a political vacuum and chaos in the country?”Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Zasypkin also questioned the motives of the civil movement. Speaking in Beirut, he said that “people’s demands have turned against Hezbollah, and this is a very serious matter.” Zasypkin urged “the Lebanese parties to find a compromise solution that satisfies everyone on the formation of a government.”However, former Future Movement MP Mustafa Alloush described Hezbollah’s claims of US meddling as “ridiculous.”“To say that the US is behind a movement that brought thousands of people on to the streets to demand tax cuts and jobs is a ridiculous accusation. Will they prosecute people for high treason?” he asked.
“Hezbollah supporters who are paid by Iran, take up arms, and fight and kill people, are not held accountable. How does this make sense?”
Public affairs analyst Walid Fakhreddine also rejected claims of a US conspiracy, saying: “We have seen these accusations at the beginning of the movement and now they are back. We were accused of treason and of receiving funding for the protests. They do not understand what is happening. People are now in a different place.”Fakhreddine warned that the ruling class is “dragging the country into financial and economic collapse.” “They insist on leading the country into bankruptcy. What is required is an independent transitional government that will hold early elections,” he said.
“They think people are revolting because they want to be represented in government. This is not true. The civil movement does not want to share power. We are looking for a homeland. They accuse us of demagoguery. We are a people who want real reform, not their corrupt reform.”

Arabic Rap: A form of revolutionary expression
Maysaa Ajjan/Annahar/November 23/2019
“Esma'a” is a song that speaks about the transitory phase we are in as a people,” Omar Ali told Annahar. “It is actually a direct call to the leaders in authority who do not listen to what the people want.”
BEIRUT: Chants, slogans, nationalistic songs, and other noise, such as the clanging of pots and pans, have become an integral part of the October revolution. Indeed, the audible part of the revolution has become just as important and enticing to the people as the visual one.
One recent addition to this sphere is the emergence of revolutionary rap songs in Arabic. During the course of the revolution, several Arabic rap songs were released by rappers in the Lebanese rap scene. One example is team Ghorabaa’s “عليهم," which loosely translates to “charge on," and which was released on the second day of the revolution.
“We released this track after a woman [Malak Alaywe Herz] famously kicked a man on the first day of the revolution and a poster of her kicking the man emerged with “عليهم” written on it,” Omar Ali, one of the rappers in Ghorabaa, told Annahar. “That was the source of our inspiration. We meant to ignite people’s anger with the song and give them the energy they need to be part of the revolution.”
The song “عليهم” has since received more than 40,000 views on YouTube.
Some of its lyrics translate to the following: "To my people, get rid of those rulers...Destroy their homes upon their heads, how beautiful is the revolution...Burn their flags and raise the flag of freedom.”
Ghorabaa, which means “strangers” in English, has five members: Omar Ali, Omar Adawieh, Youssef Sayouf, Ahmed Kassar, and Fady Torfeh.
Ghorabaa’s second track, released November 19, was called “esma'a," which translates to “listen” in English. It was inspired by a popular song of the same name and that includes the following chorus: “Listen to me...Just listen to what is driving me crazy...I am the tortured one and you are the one living in bliss...Actually you are the tortured one and I am the one living in bliss."
“Esma'a” is a song that speaks about the transitory phase we are in as a people,” Omar Ali told Annahar. “It is actually a direct call to the leaders in authority who do not listen to what the people want.”
Another rapper, who is new to the rap scene in Lebanon and who goes by the name “Roytivation,” is Alaa Naboulsy. He has been recording for two years with the aid of Ghorabaa, and has performed with them in downtown Beirut next to the Grand Theatro last Sunday.
Roytivation has released one revolutionary song called “عاطية عثورة” which loosely translates to “Looks like we need a revolution."
“I never consciously insert messages into my song,” Roytivation told Annahar. “I just sing what I feel like singing, and as long as it is relevant to the listeners and they can identify themselves with it, I’m good. I also always make sure I talk about Tripoli in my songs, because it is the city I come from, a neglected city.”“People think that us rapping about the revolution is something new,” Omar Ali told Annahar. “But what they don’t know is that rap has always been revolutionary, all the way back to its roots in fighting slavery.”
*Mohamad Shour contributed to this article.

Lebanon protests undermine Hezbollah’s sectarian narrative
Simon Speakman Cordall/The Arab Weekly/November 23/2019
TUNIS - As predominantly young demonstrators have taken to the streets across Lebanon calling for an end to the country’s confessional system of government in which posts and ministries are divided along sectarian lines, the sense of identity that has underpinned Hezbollah and its ally Amal’s rise has come under repeated attack.
The cross-sectarian nature of the protests took many among Lebanon’s ruling elite, more accustomed to attributing blame across confessional lines than defending the system of government, by surprise. Protesters from all sects — Sunni, Druze, Shia and Christian — have rebelled against a political elite they see as having enriched itself at the country’s cost.
For Hezbollah, which has relied on an ingrained sense of Shia identity, the problems are acute. Responding to the groundswell of popular discontent, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah appeared to open the door to corruption investigations while maintaining his defence of the political status quo and particularly the group’s allies within the Shia Amal Movement.
Speaking to the Daily Beast, a Hezbollah member who fought in Syria in support of Syrian President Bashar Assad said the challenges of defending the movement and denying the demands of protesters were manifest.
“Am I a member of Hezbollah against the Israelis? Yes, I am,” the fighter, identified as Abu Hussein, said. “Am I a member of Hezbollah when it’s against the people in the streets? No!”
“The protesters’ demands are 100% legitimate and they have no other choice to get their demands met,” he told the Daily Beast, suggesting that an increasing number of fighters held similar views.
“Hezbollah built itself up into a formidable power in large part by portraying itself as a defender of the Lebanese people against Israel,” said Thomas Abi-Hanna, a security analyst with the risk consultancy Stratfor. “The group’s sole focus was defending Lebanon. Hezbollah’s activities in Syria, in which it fought to defend the Syrian government of Bashar Assad, undermined that image in the eyes of some Lebanese.”
Since its foundation, Iran has played a pivotal role in Hezbollah’s development, providing arms to the group through Syria and overseeing its deployment in that conflict. As in other countries across the region, that influence is being challenged. “Iran is watching the events with great interest. However, Lebanese protests are likely the third-most important protest movement to Iran, which also faces problems closer to home including massive protests within its own borders as well as large scale protests in neighbouring Iraq,” Abi-Hanna said.
However, predictions that the protests might inflict long-term damage to Hezbollah’s support in Lebanon appear flawed.
“There has been a lot of speculation recently about the level of control Hezbollah and Amal maintain over Shias given the multiple demonstrations that happened in places considered as the stronghold of these two parties,” said Elie Abouaoun, director of the MENA programme at the US Institute of Peace.
“Undeniably, a number of both parties’ supporters went on the streets and complained about the lack of services and economic opportunities. However, this uprising in the parties’ fiefs is more about the economic and social conditions than it is about the political options of these parties.”
Abouaoun said that, after decades of political exclusion, many Lebanese Shias hold that Hezbollah remains the only route to political representation and protection.
“While this might shift to become less of a priority in the context of acute economic and social hardship,” he said, “it does not disappear completely and will re-emerge when relevant. So, in a nutshell, this erosion is easily reversible unless a miracle happens, i.e. building a political system and state institutions that would dismiss their concern.”
It has been suggested that the extent to which Hezbollah would be open to corruption investigations may be limited. While accusations against Hezbollah officials have been limited, those against their allies are widespread.
“Hezbollah’s main allies in Lebanon, starting with Amal, are heavily involved in corruption. Therefore, going after (corruption) will lead to a sharp divide between Shias, which is the last thing Hezbollah would want now,” Abouaoun said.
“Fighting corruption will involve as well targeting key figures in another heavyweight ally, the Free Patriotic Movement, some of which are also involved in malpractices and abuse of power.”
Hezbollah’s position cannot be assured. “Even within its own ranks and despite a strict discipline there have been more than one case of corruption reported. There is no doubt that this is only the emerging part of the iceberg and that a serious investigation will disclose more about the involvement of key figures in Hezbollah in corruption,” Abouaoun said.

Sooner or later, Iran's regime will lose its grip
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/November 23/2019
It is only natural that the Iranian people rise up against a regime that has been, for 40 years, constantly escaping its failures by venturing outside the borders of Iran. It is more than normal that the popular uprising engulfs all of the country. Ordinary citizens have had enough of the lies that the regime has been feeding them while half of the country's population -- about 40 million people -- lives below the globally recognised poverty line. The Iranian people may not succeed this time to get rid of this regime but it will eventually happen, perhaps tomorrow or the day after.
It must be admitted that the regime has equipped itself with an impressive repressive machine. That machine was at work during the bloody quelling of the youth-driven 2009 Green Revolution.
However, it must also be acknowledged that Iran is entering a new and irreversible stage, since the existing regime is not viable, no matter how oppressive. This is because the regime is not able to be a normal natural system that cares about the affairs and well-being of its people. All it has to offer them are hollow slogans. With time, it has become clear to Iranian citizens that the slogans cannot feed them or give them hope for a better future for them and their children. What is being witnessed in Iran is the culmination of the failure of a regime that has nothing to export besides weapons, misery, militias and sectarian strife while its citizens are finding it tougher to survive by the day as they watch huge amounts disbursed to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. What does investing in militias lead to? Can investing in misery have positive results at any level?
The Iranian regime, this Islamic Republic founded by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979, has fallen because it became more dependent on oil and gas revenues than its predecessor, the shah regime. The shah was the victim of his hesitation and of the cancer he suffered from during the last five years of his reign.
Khomeini, who proved to be an extremely wily fellow, controlled the revolution and diverted it in favour of establishing a regime to his own measure, the system of velayat-e faqih.
In everything Iran has done in the past 40 years, there has been a hidden link called its relationship with the United States. This relationship allowed the regime to remain in power after successive US administrations found it had an interest in its survival. From the Jimmy Carter administration that deliberately avoided military confrontation, despite having US diplomats held hostage in Tehran for 444 days, to the Barack Obama administration, which did everything it could to meet the demands of the Iranian regime and make room for it to breathe financially, each administration had its own story with the Islamic Republic.
In October 1983, Ronald Reagan closed his eyes on the bombing of the US Marine Corps headquarters near Beirut airport, an operation that Iran was suspected of sponsoring. He dismissed the death of 241 American troops in that operation and withdrew US forces from Lebanon to please Iran.
The George H.W. Bush administration spent most of its effort on addressing the consequences of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. At that stage, and thanks to Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein’s multiple mistakes, Iran found an indirect ally in the United States America.
Bill Clinton was not interested in any confrontation with Iran, creating a state of coexistence that the Islamic Republic took full advantage of until the arrival of the greatest and most invaluable of opportunities, the one offered by the George W. Bush administration in 2003. The United States delivered Iraq on a silver plate to Iran. This marked the second launch of the Iranian expansion project. The Iranian regime was all over the place, in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain and Iraq. In reality, the regime was exporting its own crises because it has nothing to export but crises and now this system is in crisis. Iraq was its major playing card but now it is playing against it. The Iranian people have seen how the Iraqis rose up against their corrupt regime so they chose to revolt against the Khomeini regime and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Much credit for what is going on in Iran must go to Iraq and to the Trump administration, which realised that the problem with Iran was not in the nuclear file. The Trump administration tore up the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran signed under the Obama administration. Most important, the current US administration joined Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in considering that the problem with Iran is in its behaviour beyond its borders. Iran is obsessed with being recognised as a major player in the Middle East but it refuses to admit that such a role requires a strong and diversified economy able to stand on its own.
The Trump administration hit Iran at its weak point, the economy. Iran is beginning to feel the effect of US sanctions. Iranians are being influenced by the courage of Iraqis who are not only resisting a corrupt regime but also Iranian colonialism. Eventually, Iran will be liberated from a backward regime living from exporting its crises beyond its borders. It is not only Iran that will be liberated; Lebanon, Syria and Iraq will be liberated, too, and so will Yemen, even though the latter is suffering not just from the Houthis and their backwardness in Sana'a but also from the absence of a “legitimacy” camp that has a project for all of Yemen.
The Iranian issue must be treated with caution but the fact that all of Iran is revolting against the injustices and obscurantism of the existing regime is cause for optimism. Everything seems to indicate that an abnormal situation like that of the Iranian regime cannot continue. These are the times when the US administration seems unwilling to back down on its sanctions against Iran and these sanctions are beginning to produce consequences for Iran and for the region as a whole.

Lebanese abroad look for ways to get involved in protest movement
Justin Salhani/The Arab Weekly/November 23/2019
PARIS - As Lebanon marks one month of protests, activists and demonstrators are charting their next steps in the effort to remove what they say is a corrupt political system. The Lebanese diaspora, which faces a different set of struggles, is finding ways to get involved in the movement.
When the protests began, many Lebanese outside the country experienced a whirlwind of emotions. There was pride in compatriots standing up to the long-entrenched government but also some uneasiness about not being present to support them. This was not the first time Lebanese have had a protest effort aimed at revolutionising the political system but previous setbacks made many lose hope. In 2005, massive demonstrations led to the expulsion of occupying Syrian forces but the following ten years were punctuated by social and economic crises. In 2015, a waste-disposal crisis led Lebanese to again protest in mass but that movement broke down because of internal divisions and the political class’s efforts to keep them at bay. “I really lost heart after the (2015) ‘You Stink’ (protests),” said Drew Mikhael, a Belfast-based academic who said he visits Lebanon around eight times each year. Mikhael said that, after the collapse of the 2015 protests, he stopped keeping up with Lebanese news.
This time, however, something feels different, protesters said. “The united nature crosses sect, class, gender. It’s inclusive of the LGBT community and it has reignited hope,” Mikhael said, adding that the new social contract forged by Lebanese across the country appears to be a watershed moment in casting off sectarian divisions. The Lebanese diaspora is re-energised. Weekly protests have taken place in New York, Paris, London and elsewhere since mid-October. There has been a significant backlash to Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s suggestions that Lebanese unhappy with their government can simply emigrate. That struck a particularly harsh note with the diaspora, many of whom left because of a lack of opportunity at home. Many Lebanese living abroad confess they feel guilt, shame or fear of missing out in the protests. It isn’t helped that they are sometimes stigmatised by other Lebanese for having left their country, whether or not by choice.
Nasri Atallah said he was at a protest in London, where he lives, and heard people chanting how they wish to live and work in Lebanon. While he doesn’t disagree, he said his personal situation is different.
“I thought about how, even if things in Lebanon were ideal, I would probably leave anyway because my ambitions are matched in a place like London or New York,” Atallah said.
When the protests broke out, Atallah said he considered returning to Beirut but he felt uneasy. “I felt it would be conflict tourism to go to my own country as an expat under these circumstances and I thought about how I could be of better use in my own city,” he said.
Since then, he’s been talking to others in the diaspora about how to help and build a network that can help find opportunities for young Lebanese artists or professionals, similar to networks used by the Armenian or Chinese
communities abroad. There is a stark dichotomy between the lives of Lebanese diaspora members and Lebanese at home, many pointed out. A meme on social media during the first days of the protest movement showed a drawn figurine of an expat woman watching developments on her laptop surrounded by trinkets and dishes that reminded her of Lebanon.
“For the first week, I was glued to (Lebanese news channel) MTV and I’d be at my job and listening to all the latest developments at the same time,” said Micha Maalouf, who lives in New York. “I told everyone at my office what was happening and why this was so important.”
She was not the only Lebanese living abroad eagerly keeping up with the news but while expatriates used social media to stay informed, they sometimes struggled to manage their daily lives. Maalouf admitted she’s had to shut off the news so her work performance didn’t suffer. Many diaspora members observed a strange dichotomy between following developments in Lebanon and staying connected to local happenings. Some found it surreal to flip through memes of their friends and family supporting the protests, only to be interrupted by an Instagram story featuring a plate of food posted by a non-Lebanese colleague.
“It felt like a moral obligation at first,” Youssef Mallat, a Lebanese living in Paris, said about focusing solely on “the revolution.” “When I’d see posts not about the revolution it made me a bit angry because I felt it wasn’t time to talk about other things and we have bigger problems but as an expat what do you do? At some point, your life is still going,” he said. The divide reminds the Lebanese diaspora of the duality of their lives. Many left Lebanon for the chance at a more stable life but their hearts are with protesters on the streets of Lebanon chanting “thawra, thawra, thawra!”

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 23-24/2019
A Judicial Attempt to Disqualify Netanyahu as Prime Minister
Tel Aviv- Nazir Majli/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 23 November, 2019
Israeli Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit announced Thursday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be charged with criminal wrongdoing in three separate cases that include bribery.
The ruling Israeli right did not accept the decision of the Attorney General to issue serious indictments against Netanyahu, who said he was the victim of an attempted coup. Laying out the charges in a press conference on Thursday evening, Mendelblit said he made the decision to indict the prime minister "with a heavy heart, but wholeheartedly," stressing it was not an issue of left-wing or right-wing politics and that enforcing the law was not a matter of choice. The main opposition Blue and White party lawyers said that while Netanyahu was not legally required to step down as prime minister, he should immediately do so. Benny Gantz, head of the opposition coalition, urged Netanyahu to act as a political leader in a developed country and resign and not act as the head of a backward state that clings to power by force. In a petition, the Blue and White party emphasized that "according to the High Court of Justice, a minister against whom an indictment is filed, isn't able to continue holding his post, and therefore you [Netanyahu] are obligated to immediately leave your various ministerial positions in the government."In response to Mandelblit's announcement that he is indicting Netanyahu for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, Labor-Gesher chairman Amir Peretz announced that he has prepared a legal team to petition the Supreme Court to rule Netanyahu is unfit to serve in office. "The indictments against Netanyahu are the reason that a government hasn't been established in Israel," Peretz stated. "In a democracy, we cannot reconcile ourselves to a prime minister facing indictments. The political crisis in Israel is only due to the indictments. If we succeed in preventing Netanyahu from clinging to the position of prime minister, we'll prevent third elections within a year."

PM Netanyahu’s chances of survival are drowning under a concerted political, legal, media onslaught
DebkaFile/November 23/2019
The shattering indictments for bribery and breach of faith brought against Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu,70, are only one stage in the relentless campaign to unseat him. His decision to fight for his innocence and win round the voters in Israel’s third election in a year, in early 2020, has brought down on his head the full weight of the legal, political and media establishments. They have no qualms about bending the immunity law to force him to quit office without waiting for an absolute court judgement of his guilt. If there was a concerted coup conspiracy to oust him, as he charges, it is far from over. Since the attorney general announced the indictments last Thursday, one voice after another has candidly proposed circumventing the legal process if that is the only way to remove Netanyahu as prime minister before his day in court. On Saturday, Nov. 22, a former high court justice, Eliahu Matza, joined the chorus of law enforcement voices when, in a radio interview, he pressed the Knesset to refer to the Supreme Court the decision on his competence to form a government. By law, this is the sole jurisdiction of parliament. This was incidentally a sly attempt to exploit the crisis for promoting the court’s long machinations for asserting its authority over parliament.
On the political front, the opposition Kahol Lavan, whose leader Benny Gantz failed to form a new government, like Netanyahu before him, urged law enforcement authorities to force the prime minister to give up all his cabinet portfolios.
In answer to this chorus, Netanyahu released a video statement on Saturday pledging to abide by any court ruling in his case. “A court of trial is the only framework [for determining guilt or innocence] from beginning to end,” he said. If this declaration was intended to counter the charge that by putting up a fight, he was inciting a civil mutiny, it may have been the right way to go, but is unlikely to work. The parties who managed to throw him under the political-legal bus are not about to stop until their work is done and Netanyahu’s remarkable decade in office is brought to an end.
It is worth noting that the charges brought against his accused accomplices, Arnon Mozes, of the mass daily Yediot Aharanot, and the Elovich couple, are more serious that the cases against the prime minister. Yet they have rated little media notice. PM Netanyahu is the sole accused. He has only the slimmest hope of surviving the political bone-crusher smashing into him at every turn. With each assault, his popular support will melt and his loyalists be scared off. Shouted down are the voices claiming that all three are presumed innocent until proven guilty and if an indictment can cause the removal of a prime minister, then the police and legal authorities have seized control of government.
Israel’s founding father the late David Ben Gurion could have warned Netanyahu what was coming from his own experience. At the end of an epic career, Ben Gurion was challenged by forces determined to oust him. He fought back by invoking the legal system, demanding that a commission of inquiry get to the bottom of a failed clandestine operation. Ben Gurion also called on the voting public to vindicate him. He called in vain. The late Yitzhak Rabin was ordered to resign as prime minister by the then Attorney General Aharon Barak, an act that signaled the historic downfall of the ruling Labor party. Yet another Israeli prime minister, the late Ariel Sharon, when he realized that law enforcement was about to close in on him, jumped the Likud ship. He established the Kadima party and switched his politics from right to moderate left, so saving his political life.Netanyahu may or may not come up with an ingenious device for staying in office. But the way things look at present, he seems to have little choice but to quit politics and devote himself to clearing his name in court – a process that could drag on for years.

Majority of Israelis think Benjamin Netanyahu should resign
Reuters/November 23/2019
The majority of the Israeli public believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should step down from his position, according to a new poll. The apparent public opinion shift comes after the country's Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit announced that he would indict the longest-ever serving Israeli leader in three corruption cases. Fifty-six per cent of Israelis said he should step down, while just 35 per cent said he should remain, a poll released by Israeli broadcast Channel 13. The poll showed that Mr Netanyahu's main rival, Benny Gantz, would secure three more seats than the Israeli premier than he did in September's re-run election. Mr Netanyahu's indictment on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust marks the culmination of three long-running corruption cases. In the most serious, he is accused of accepting bribes from a telecom magnate by promoting regulations worth hundreds of millions of dollars in exchange for favourable media coverage on a popular news site owned by the company. Mr Netanyahu has adopted similar tactics and even the same language as US President Donald Trump, alleging a conspiracy by police and prosecutors to end the 10-year rule of Israel's longest-serving prime minister. He has held large Trump-like rallies in recent months and has repeatedly taken to the airwaves and social media, banking on his legendary political skills as the walls closed in. "Police and investigators are not above the law," Mr Netanyahu said in an angry televised statement late Thursday, in which he said the country was witnessing an "attempted coup". "The time has come to investigate the investigators," he declared, adopting a line often used by Donald Trump. Any trial is likely to be months away, and - if Mr Netanyahu is found guilty - a final conviction exhausting appeals could take years. In a video statement posted online Friday Mr Netanyahu said he would abide by any ruling. "We will accept the decisions of the court, there is no doubt about that" and "we will act in accordance with the rule of law," he said. Mr Netanyahu's political authority is now under more intense scrutiny than ever. Israel has been without a functioning government for nearly a year, with Mr Netanyahu, nicknamed 'King Bibi', staying on as interim premier after two inconclusive elections in April and September. Parliament now has less than three weeks to find a candidate who can gain the support of more than half of the 120 lawmakers, or a deeply unpopular third election will be called.

Saudi's Al Jubeir warns against appeasement of Iranian regime
The National/November 24/2019
A senior Saudi official cautioned on Saturday against what he termed appeasement of Iran, saying sectarian goals cannot be allowed to continue to define Tehran’s foreign policy. Addressing the annual Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Jubeir painted the region as facing a choice between good and evil after the September 14 drone attacks on Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities. The kingdom is not against dialogue with Tehran but deterrence needs to be pursued to prevent Iran from repeating the attacks, he said. “Appeasement did not work with Hitler. It will not work with the Iranian regime,” Mr Jubeir said. He said the international community must “extract a price from Iran” for the September 14 attacks, which he said “absolutely clearly” were orchestrated with Iranian weapons and “came from the north and not south”. “The Iranians cannot be allowed to get away with this,” Mr Al Jubeir said, adding that the kingdom is awaiting the results of an international investigation into the attacks. Sectarianism spread by Iran is also destructive, Mr Al Jubeir said, adding that Iran is de facto claiming that every Shiite belongs to Iran, which he termed as “ridiculous”. “It is like Italy saying every Catholic belongs to Italy. Would Germany accept?” he said. "What we are seeing in region is a vision of light and vision of darkness.”France's armed forces minister, speaking at the same conference, warned against the dangers of US disengagement in the Middle East. Florence Parly said while the Arabian Gulf is "accustomed to the ebb and flow of US involvement," America has not pushed back against Tehran after a summer of tensions sparked by President Donald Trump withdrawing unilaterally from Iran's nuclear deal with world powers. She said: "When the mining of ships went unanswered, a drone got shot (down). When that in turn got unanswered, major oil facilities were bombed. Where does it stop?" Speaking at the same event, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash called for a region-wide response to the protests across the Middle East by developing “a positive vision” that preserves stability. “Along with diplomacy we need a positive vision of stability in the wider region as we see many young people take to the streets in Iran Iraq to Lebanon.” Mr Gargash said.

Turkey Announces Bounty For Dahlan’s Arrest
Istanbul - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 23 November, 2019
Turkey announced on Friday it would award a prize of $700,000 for information leading to the arrest of former Palestinian official Mohammed Dahlan, who is accused by Ankara of “participating in a 2016 coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.”Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu told Hurriyet newspaper that Dahlan would be included in the “list of wanted terrorists”.Dahlan, 58, was a rival to his former Fatah ally Mahmoud Abbas. Turkish media accuse Dahlan of involvement in the failed coup of 2016. Agence France-Presse (AFP) said Dahlan was quick to respond sharply, accusing Erdogan of supporting “terrorist groups” in Syria, stealing gold from the Libyan Central Bank, and “acting as if he was the Emir of the faithful.”A Palestinian court sentenced Dahlan in absentia to three years in prison in 2016 for corruption and ordered him to pay $16 million, according to his lawyer. Dahlan was the head of the security apparatus in the Gaza Strip, but lost the necessary political cover after Hamas seized control of his forces in 2007, expelling Fatah from the Gaza Strip.

Iranians Struggle to Adjust to Life Offline, Resort to Old Ways
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 23 November, 2019
Iranians were forced to adapt to life offline for almost a week and were forced to resort to old ways due to a near-total internet blackout imposed amid violent protests. The demonstrations flared on November 15, hours after a shock decision announced at midnight to raise the price of petrol by up to 200 percent in the sanctions-hit country. The timing of the announcement was seen as a bid to forestall chaos, such as caused by motorists stocking up on fuel before the hike took effect. The internet restrictions, for their part, apparently aimed to temper shows of dissent and anger over the move and stop footage of the unrest from being shared, AFP reported. Brigadier General Salar Abnoosh, a deputy head of the Basij volunteer militia, said Friday that the internet outage had helped to "disrupt the complicated" plans by Iran's enemies. On Saturday -- day seven of the internet restrictions and the start of the working week in Iran -- people in Tehran were trying to overcome problems brought on by the outage. Some said they had been forced to make long journeys to carry out simple transactions that they used to be able to do in a couple of clicks online. "We have no other choice," said a woman in her 30s who only gave her name as Asgari. "What I could have done by using internet now I have to do by telephone or some other means," she told AFP. "I've taken today off from work to come into town to do something which I could´ve done by using the internet." Others said they were having difficulty reaching loved ones overseas. "I wanted to call my children but I couldn't," said Taheri, a man in his 70s. "They were worried and had to go and get a card to call us. This is not right."
Economic impact
For many in Iran, the lack of internet access was more than just a hindrance to social activity. The country has a thriving online economy, with its own equivalents for apps like Airbnb, Amazon and Uber. They have come through the outage largely unscathed as people can still access domestic applications on their phones. However, smaller businesses that rely heavily on social media to stay in touch with their clients suffered during the outage. Among them were travel agencies whose services were badly disrupted. "An acute problem has been created for all travel agencies," said Hormatollah Rafiei, head of the Travel Agents Guild Association. "The sale of foreign tickets and reservations for foreign hotels reached zero and some travel agencies closed due to financial losses," he said, quoted by ILNA news agency. Connectivity in Iran "began to fluctuate on Friday evening (November 15) before a sequence of cuts that saw levels fall to a nadir of four percent" compared with normal levels, said Netblocks, a site that monitors global internet disruptions. "Apart from fluctuations on Sunday, access to the outside world flatlined consistently until Thursday when limited connectivity appeared across most regions," it said. On Saturday, connectivity was back up, the monitor added.
- 'What can we do?' -
Washington slapped sanctions on its telecommunications minister overnight "for restricting internet access". The minister, Mohammad-Javad Azari Jahromi, said he was just another Iranian made to suffer the consequences of sanctions that the US reimposed after withdrawing from a 2015 nuclear deal. "I'm not the only member of club of sanctioned persons," he tweeted. "Before me, Iran ICT startups, Developers, Cancer patients and EB children were there," he said, referring to epidermolysis bullosa (EB). Iran says the US sanctions have hindered its access to drugs for EB, a skin condition that afflicts children, causing several deaths. According to AFP, the government said it would unblock the internet only when it was sure it would not be abused. Mina, a woman in her 50s, said she had little choice but to sit tight. "My family lives abroad and I was always in touch with them but now I have no contact with them," she told AFP. "I need to get a phone card because it's too expensive to call abroad (from a fixed line phone)," she added. "What can we do? We are trying to stay patient."

US Central Command Says Anti-ISIS Operations to Pick Up
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 23 November, 2019
US Central Command chief General Kenneth McKenzie said on Saturday there are 500 US personnel in east Syria, adding he expected anti-ISIS operations to pick up in coming days and weeks.
McKenzie was speaking on the sidelines of the Manama Dialogue Conference in Bahrain. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, said earlier this month that about 500 or 600 US troops will remain in Syria to counter ISIS militants. President Donald Trump has approved an expanded military mission to secure oil fields across eastern Syria. His decision locked hundreds of US troops into a more complicated presence in Syria despite his pledge to bring them home. "Now I've got about 500 US personnel generally east of the Euphrates river east of Deir Ezzor up to Hasaka, northeast all the way up into extreme northeast Syria," McKenzie told reporters on Saturday. "It is our intention to remain in that position working with our SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) partners to continue operations against ISIS down the Euphrates river valley where those targets present themselves," he said.

Syria: Car Bomb Kills 9 in Tal Abyad
Ankara- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 23 November, 2019
A car bomb killed nine people including four civilians in a Turkish-held border town in northern Syria on Saturday, a Britain-based war monitor said. Two children were among those killed in Tal Abyad, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the bombing. The area has been shaken by repeated such bombings since Turkish troops and their Syrian proxies seized a strip of borderland including Tal Abyad from Kurdish forces in a cross-border operation last month. The Turkish invasion against Kurdish-controlled areas saw Ankara's fighters seize a strip of land roughly 120 kilometers long and 30 kilometers deep on the Syrian side of the border. The operation launched on October 9 displaced tens of thousands and left dozens of civilians dead, and forced Kurdish forces to retreat from some key towns. On November 10, Turkey blamed Kurdish fighters for another bombing that took the lives of eight people in the village of Suluk southeast of Tal Abyad. A week earlier, another car bomb killed 13 people in Tal Abyad, according to the Observatory. Syria's Kurds have been a key ally of the US in fighting the ISIS terrorist group in Syria, but Turkey sees them as "terrorists" linked to a Kurdish insurgency at home. Kurdish-led Syrian forces expelled ISIS from its last patch of land in March, but the militants have continued to claim deadly attacks.

Sisi Calls For Turning Africa Into ‘Global Industrialization Hub’
Cairo- Waleed Abdurrahman/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 23 November, 2019
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said that “development in Africa is not the responsibility of governments alone, but requires the participation of the private sector.”He also pointed out that work to increase the rate of intra-trade and activate the free trade zone was ongoing. Sisi’s remarks were made at the fourth edition of the Investment for Africa 2019 Forum which kicked off on Friday in Egypt's new administrative capital near Cairo. The inauguration ceremony of the two-day event was attended by Sisi and a large number of African heads of state and government, along with high-profile business figures from around the world. “Egypt has worked during the past period with its African partners to achieve development,” Sisi said. He added that better results were witnessed by African citizens as a result of cooperation and Joint work. "The entry into force of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) on May 30 was a milestone on the road to continental integration, with Africa being one of largest trade regions in the world with 1.2 billion people and a GDP of 2.5 trillion US dollars," Sisi said. "We have to find solutions based on regional integration to transform Africa into a global industrialization hub to provide job opportunities for African citizens and attract foreign investments," Sisi added. Sisi called “Africa’s development partners” and investors to participate at meeting Africa’s aspiration “in accordance with our programs and with the best terms.”“We call on multinational companies to invest in Africa with, the land of multiple opportunities and chances,” Sisi said. The forum, which is organized by Egypt's Ministry of Investment and International Cooperation, is an opportunity for forging investment deals and making announcements of numerous megaprojects that will contribute to inclusive and sustainable growth in the African continent.

On Iraq visit, Pence reassures Kurds and discusses protests with prime minister
Reuters, Erbil/Saturday, 23 November 2019
Vice President Mike Pence visited Iraq on Saturday to reassure Iraqi Kurds of US support after President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from northern Syria drew criticism that Washington had betrayed its Kurdish allies there. His trip included a visit with Nechirvan Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan region in Iraq, and also a phone call with Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi to discuss the unrest and protests over corruption that have rocked the country. The visit also served to bolster US troops ahead of next Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. Pence made two stops during his short trip, which was previously unannounced for security reasons. Traveling on a military cargo plane, he landed first at al-Asad Air Base northwest of Baghdad and talked by phone with Abdul Mahdi. “We spoke about the unrest that’s been taking place in recent weeks here in Iraq,” Pence told reporters. “He assured me that they were working to avoid violence or the kind of oppression we see taking place even as we speak in Iran.”“He pledged to me that they would work to protect and respect peaceful protesters as ... part of the democratic process here in Iraq.”Hundreds have been killed since early October when mass protests began in Baghdad and southern Iraq. Protesters want to dislodge a political class they view as corrupt and beholden to foreign powers at the expense of Iraqis who suffer from poverty and poor healthcare. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Monday the United States was prepared to impose sanctions on any Iraqi officials found to be corrupt as well as those responsible for the deaths and wounding of peaceful protesters. The trip gave the Trump administration a chance to show it is working on foreign policy even as impeachment hearings led by Democrats consume Washington. Pence said he reiterated Trump’s commitment to an independent and sovereign Iraq. “We continue to be concerned about the malign influence of Iran across Iraq,” he said.
Supports for Kurds
The vice president went on to Erbil in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq, seeking to show US appreciation for Kurdish sacrifices and affirm a message of US support and partnership with Kurdish fighters. Pence told Barzani at the beginning of their meeting at Erbil airport that he wanted on Trump’s behalf to “reiterate the strong bonds forged in the fires of war between the people of the United States and the Kurdish people across this region. Last month Turkey launched an offensive into northeastern Syria after Trump’s abrupt decision to withdraw all 1,000 US troops there. Pence brokered a pause with Ankara to allow time for Kurdish fighters to withdraw. That truce aimed to mitigate the crisis sparked by Trump’s announcement, which US Republican and Democratic lawmakers criticized as a betrayal of Kurdish allies aligned with Washington in the fight against ISIS. Asked whether he had to smooth over any sense of betrayal from the Kurds, Pence said: “I don’t think there was any confusion now among the leadership here in the Kurdish region that President Trump’s commitment to our allies here in Iraq as well as to those in the Syrian defense forces, the Kurdish forces who fought along side us, is unchanging.”
At the al-Asad Air Base, which Trump visited in a similar surprise trip last year, Pence and his wife, Karen, served a traditional Thanksgiving meal of turkey, cranberry sauce and other fixings to some 700 US troops. Pence, on his first trip to Iraq as vice president, did not to go Baghdad to meet the prime minister personally because of safety concerns related to the protests, a US official said.

Pope arrives in Japan, fulfilling decadesold missionary dream
NNA/Vatican News/November 23/2019
It’s a well-known fact that Pope Francis has harbored an ardent desire to become a missionary to Japan ever since he was a young man. Over time, I felt the desire to go as a missionary to Japan, where the Jesuits have always carried out a very important work,” he was quoted as saying in the book “El Jesuita”, published in 2010. Fr Jorge Bergoglio requested an assignment to the East Asian nation as a young Jesuit in Argentina. Today he made that dream became a reality.
Missionary to Japan
Pope Francis arrived at Tokyo’s Haneda Airport on Saturday evening, becoming the second Pope to visit Japan. His predecessor, Pope St John Paul II, came here in 1981, and left a lasting mark on the local Catholic Church. That visit helped change the way Japanese people viewed the Church’s role in society. The Polish Pope visited Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and both Tokyo Dome and Sophia University during his historic visit.
Mirror image of JPII’s visit
Pope Francis’ visit 38 years later mirrors that itinerary closely. He travels to Nagasaki and Hiroshima on Sunday, and spends Monday and Tuesday in Tokyo, where he will visit the same Jesuit-run university and celebrate Mass at the Tokyo Dome. If the coverage given in Japanese media is any indication, most Catholics are sure that Pope Francis’ missionary visit will have a lasting impact on both the country and the local Church. --- Vatican News

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 23-24/2019
Analysis/Iran Unrest Gave Israel a Window to Strike. Now the Danger Lurks Elsewhere
Amos Harel/Haaretz/November 24/2019
عاموس هاريل/هآرتس/اضطرابات إيران أعطت إسرائيل فرصة لضرب قواعدها العسكرية في سوريا أما الآن فالخطر على إسرائيل هو في مكان آخر
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At what point would Russia demand Israel cease its hostilities?
Though it was Israel that struck most of the blows and took the initiative in the two recent rounds of escalation in Syria and the Gaza Strip, there appears to be a big difference between the two fronts.
In Gaza, Israel dictated the timing of the outbreak of hostilities and chose the opening shot – the assassination of top Islamic Jihad figure Baha Abu al-Ata. The military friction there did not get out of control and for now it appears Israel achieved the main aims it set for itself – hitting Abu al-Ata and a return to indirect talks with the Hamas regime, in the hope of reaching a long-term truce agreement in the future.
In Syria, the ping-pong balls are still flying, some of them not visible to the eye. Viewing the situation from the sidelines, it is hard go say exactly which blow was struck in response to which counter-attack and vice versa. Moreover, while the behavior of both Islamic Jihad and Hamas is more or less predictable, Iran’s position in the north is more complex.
It is quite possible that the next moves by Iran will be affected by the domestic political crisis there. Since the end of October the regime in Tehran has been bothered by the outbreak of mass protests in two countries in its orbit: Iraq and Lebanon. Last week, however, the Iranians’ troubles bumped up a notch when protests erupted again at home, in riots spreading to dozens of cities and towns throughout the country. The “gasoline protest,” which began in the populace’s response to the regime’s decision – under pressure from American sanctions – to raise fuel prices in the country by double-digit percentage points, has already exacted the lives of more than 100 Iranians, most of them demonstrators who were shot and killed by the security forces.
Security sources in Israel describe the current protest as the most serious since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. This, even though the precise criteria for comparison are not entirely clear, and even though the information coming out of Iran is only partial due to the authorities’ decision to shut down the Internet almost completely. It is reasonable to assume that the Israeli decision to respond more harshly in Syria – in the pre-dawn air force attack on Wednesday, more than 20 Iranian and Syrian targets were hit – took into account the assessment that the domestic troubles in Iran are opening a window of opportunity for Israeli action.
This is also an approach that could come back at Israel like a boomerang. Precisely from within the domestic pressure the Iranian regime is facing now, it is liable to conclude that a violent confrontation with Israel is beneficial. And the greatest danger is not lurking in Syria but rather in Lebanon – where Iran’s most effective asset is located: the huge rocket arsenal Hezbollah has accumulated.
Israeli intelligence officials figure Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah clearly remembers the damage inflicted in the Second Lebanon War in 2006 and he is not keen to repeat the experience. However, Nasrallah is subordinate to the Iranians’ considerations and he has to cope on his own with increasing protest that is placing Hezbollah and Iran in its sights – to the extent of blunt accusations by Shi’ite demonstrators regarding the organization’s involvement in corruption and the drug trade.
Apparently, in the Iranian view the boldness that was demonstrated in the attacks on the Saudi oilfields in September have proven themselves. The launching of drones and cruise missiles made a big impression throughout the Middle East, especially as the Americans refrained from reacting to the attack – President Donald Trump explained that because the target was Saudi, it is a Saudi problem and not an American one. The Iranian temptation to act forcefully against Israel could rear up now in the wake of the Saudi precedent, despite the clear differences in the attack and defense capabilities of the two countries. Such an attack could be carried out from afar: The drones that attacked in Saudi Arabia flew hundreds of kilometers, apparently from Iranian territory. Last month Israeli Military Intelligence warned of a similar Iranian deployment in western Iraq, which could be aimed at Israel.
According to reports from Syrian human rights organizations, which are not known for their scientific precision, in the Israeli attacks in Syria on Wednesday, 23 people were killed, about half of them Iranian citizens. Possibly the real number is higher. To some extent, the move led by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Qasem Soleimani – establishing a military presence in Syria, by means of setting up camps and deploying Revolutionary Guards Corps and Shi’ite militia weaponry – in the meantime looks misjudged.
Of all the arenas in which Israel’s campaign between the wars is being waged, Syria is the most convenient for the Israel Defense Forces. The logistical chain the Iranians are establishing is long and vulnerable and the stronghold they have built near the border is still too weak to deal successfully with Israel’s intelligence and air force capabilities.
Another factor Israel must take into account is Russia. The most recent attack was preceded by the visit of a high-level defense delegation to Moscow. In the IDF, they have acknowledged that before the attack, the mechanism to inform the Russian forces in Syria in advance was triggered. However, the top Russian interest is ensuring the stability of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, in whose survival Moscow has invested considerable effort and vast amounts of money during the past four years.
Possible Russian intervention?
If the Russians suspect that the combination between riots in Iran and Iraq, and the increasing friction between Israel and Iran in Syria, is endangering their people or damaging their strategic project in Syria, they are liable to intervene and demand that Israel stop the attacks. In September 2018, after the Syrian air defense system mistakenly downed a Russian Ilyushin plane during an Israeli attack, Russia complained not to Syria but to Israel. Several months went by until things were ironed out between the two countries.
During the past several months there has been harsh criticism, in Israel as well, of the Trump administration’s Middle East policy. On two key points – the restraint in the face of the Iranian attacks and the abandonment of the Kurds in the midst of the withdrawal of American troops from northeastern Syria on the eve of the Turkish invasion, the president caused disappointment and anger among his allies in the region. Now, belatedly, the riots in Iran indicate that Trump’s consistent support of sanctions has to some extent borne fruit.
However, two questions remain: Will the regime succeed in suppressing the riots with the same skillful brutality it employed in the past, especially against the failed Green Revolution of June 2009? And will the pressure at home compel the leadership to consider concessions in the nuclear talks, in the hope of persuading Trump to ease the sanctions?

US Presence in Syria is Crucial for its Role in the Region
Charles Lister/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 23/2019
For the last eight years, the situation in Syria has been repeatedly described as chaotic and complicated, but that chaos and complexity has worsened significantly in recent weeks. Following President Trump’s phone call with Turkish President Erdogan and Turkey’s subsequent incursion into northeast Syria, a fast and brutal race for territorial control and influence has followed. As American troops hurriedly withdrew from their positions, the Syrian Democratic Forces came under fire from Turkey, and as the SDF lost territory, Russia and the Syrian regime flew in to fill valuable vacuums. Despite two parallel ceasefire arrangements (one between Turkey and the United States and another between Turkey and Russia) drawing new lines on the Syrian map, fighting still continues, including between Turkish proxies and the Syrian Army.
As this situation played out, ISIS commanders and leaders could only have been watching with excitement. Having been territorially defeated only months earlier and weakened to its greatest point in many years, the sudden eruption of multiple fronts of inter-state, ethnic and sectarian conflict in northeastern Syria could not have been better designed by ISIS strategists themselves. The chaos newly at play and the likely intractable nature of the new conflict fronts provided invaluable opportunities for ISIS not only to survive, but to gradually begin rebuilding itself and to resurge its terrorist operations – in Syria and next-door in Iraq. In recent weeks, that is precisely what ISIS has done: accelerate their resurgence and enhance the scale, frequency and scope of their terrorist operations.
In recent weeks, President Trump has been convinced by his broader administration and Republican Party figures to reverse his directive to withdraw from Syria. Trump’s disinterest in Syria was reversed using the only means that might have appealed to his business biases: the existence of oil and gas resources in eastern Syria. He has repeatedly stated publicly that the United States is staying in Syria “for the oil” – “we have the oil,” he has said.
However, “oil” is not the reason undergirding America’s determination to maintain a military presence in Syria. In fact, although the SDF and affiliated tribes control approximately 75% of Syria’s oil resources, the oil infrastructure has been damaged and under-maintained and production capacity is far below pre-war levels. More importantly, the United States is energy dependent and has literally no use for poor, unrefined Syrian oil. Instead, we are in Syria to sustain a crucially important campaign against a still powerful ISIS, while working ‘by-with-and-through” our SDF partners to enhance our collective negotiating positions on broader issues of Syria policy.
This is not just an American interest – it should be a priority for all American allies, both in Europe and especially in the Middle East. ISIS remains a very real and credible terrorist threat, locally, regionally and globally. What ISIS is able to regenerate in the Levant will fuel what it proves capable of doing across the world. Beyond ISIS, the crisis in Syria shows no sign of abating – whether the chaos and conflicts in the northeast; an expanding insurgency in the south; a pending humanitarian catastrophe and terrorist challenges in the northwest; not to also mention Israeli-Iranian confrontations and the security implications that come from a destroyed country, crippled state, and virtually non-existent economy. Without a military presence in Syria, we do not control territory; and without controlling territory, we do not have a meaningful seat at any Syria-related negotiating table.
Given all of these factors, the United States has a clear interest in staying in Syria and for now, that continued presence looks to have been re-secured. However, nobody can guarantee how long President Trump will remain committed to the mission, or even in his mind, to “the oil.” The counter-ISIS coalition met recently in Washington DC and reaffirmed its commitment to the mission in Syria, but uncertainty about America’s staying power was deeper than ever. “Nobody knows when the next Presidential tweet is coming,” one senior diplomat told me. “We can no longer count on America’s words or commitments,” said another. And yet all agreed that leaving Syria would be a deeply dangerous move.
To insure ourselves collectively from the consequences of another unexpected US policy reversal from the White House, US allies must urgently consider putting ‘more skin in the game.’ The Counter-ISIS coalition does not need a huge troop deployment to have the effect we seek, but a collective addition of 500 coalition special forces personnel – to the existing roughly 400 French and British troops already present, albeit covertly – could feasibly remove a great deal of the uncertainty about the sustainability of the current mission. Yes, the coalition relies heavily on American logistics and command-and-control infrastructure, but the core basis of those mechanisms would almost certainly remain in place via Iraq, even if US troops were to leave Syria in the future.
US allies could also work to enhance SDF leverage resulting from the control of oil infrastructure in Syria. Principally, it could be useful to re-entertain an old proposal, to provide the SDF with mobile oil refineries that would allow the SDF to refine its own oil product and avoid selling it to Damascus. That could significantly enhance both the SDF and the coalition’s negotiating leverage in Syria. As complex as the Syrian crisis remains today and as fatigued as the world has become with having to deal with it, we cannot avoid the central importance of Syria in determining regional and international security. That was the case in recent years and it will continue to be so in the future. We still have an important stake in Syria and we should work to shore it up, rather than leave it vulnerable to another inevitable shock.

The 'Thought Police' Come to Norway
Bruce Bawer/Gatestone Institute/November 23/ 2019
[A]s commentator Nina Hjerpset-Østlie put it, it is now illegal "to burn your own books". Which, she added, means that although Norway's longstanding blasphemy law was taken off the books four years ago, Bjørnland has, in effect, reinstated it.
Jon Wessel-Aas, a prominent lawyer... called Bjørnland's one-woman revision of the racism clause "at best prior restraint of an illegal utterance," and at worst "prior restraint of a legal utterance." Both forms of restraint, he noted, are unconstitutional.
In defense of Bjørnland's novel interpretation of criminal law, Martin Bernsen, a senior official of the PST, the agency in charge of Norway's national security, argued that burning copies of the Koran can trigger acts of violence. Under this kind of logic, of course – the so-called heckler's veto – any statement or action whatsoever that just might antagonize violence-prone Muslims should presumably be treated as illegal, whereas burning, say, any number of copies of the Talmud or Bible is no problem, since Jews and Christians aren't in the habit of responding to such actions with mass acts of savage bloodshed.
As commentator Nina Hjerpset-Østlie put it, in Norways it is now illegal "to burn your own books". Which, she added, means that although the longstanding blasphemy law was taken off the books four years ago, it has in effect been reinstated by Benedicte Bjørnland, director of the national police.
Americans whose memory of public events goes back more than a news cycle or two may recall Terry Jones, a previously obscure Gainesville, Florida, preacher whose announcement in 2010 of a plan to burn copies of the Koran drew public condemnations from then President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and the top US military commander in Afghanistan, Gen. David Petraeus. Secretary of State Robert Gates phoned Jones personally and asked him not to go ahead with the burning.
In the end, Jones put off his planned 2010 action, burning one Koran in 2011, another in 2012, and hundreds on September 11, 2014.
Jones did not escape legal consequences for these actions. In 2011 he was jailed for a few hours in Dearborn, Michigan, by authorities worried about the possible consequences of his planned participation in an anti-Islam rally, but the ACLU took his side and a county court ruling upheld his First Amendment rights. He was fined $271 in 2012 for violating Gainesville's fire safety rules. A planned mass burning of Korans on September 11, 2013, resulted in an arrest for transporting fuel, but this verdict was overturned by a circuit court judge. In short, although high-ranking federal officials from the president on down were concerned about Jones's activities, and although some local officials overreached in their efforts to squelch his plans, the courts ultimately protected his rights.
Fast forward to Norway in 2019. On November 16, at a protest in a public square in Kristiansand, a group called Stopp Islamisering av Norge ("Stop the Islamization of Norway" - SIAN) set fire to a copy of the Koran in a garbage can. At least thirty police officers were present, and put out the fire within a few seconds. After the incident, Benedicte Bjørnland, director of the national police, told the media that representatives of her department had been in contact with SIAN before the gathering and had warned that if SIAN tried to burn a Koran, they would stop it. Their argument was that such an action could be seen as violating "clause 185."
What is "clause 185"? Known informally as the "racism clause," it prescribes up to three years behind bars for saying something "discriminatory or hateful," or displaying a symbol of hate or discrimination. Clause 185 punishes threats, harassment, or encouraging contempt of others on the basis of skin color, national origin, religion, sexual orientation, or disability. A campaign is currently underway to eliminate the clause because it violates freedom of expression and because its language is so vague and subjective. But despite the widespread opposition to this sweeping piece of legislation, Norway's director of police, Benedicte Bjørnland, has now stated, in response to the Kristiansand incident, that in addition to everything else it forbids, it also prohibits "the desecration of religious symbols." Or, as commentator Nina Hjerpset-Østlie put it, it is now illegal "to burn your own books." Which, she added means that although Norway's longstanding blasphemy law was taken off the books four years ago, Bjørnland has, in effect, reinstated it.
Jon Wessel-Aas, a prominent lawyer, was not buying it. He called Bjørnland's one-woman revision of the racism clause "at best prior restraint of an illegal utterance," and at worst "prior restraint of a legal utterance." Both forms of restraint, he noted, are unconstitutional. Eivind Smith, a professor of law at the University of Oslo, was not comfortable with Bjørnland's high-handedness either. But who, in a position of authority, was paying attention?
No matter whom you listened to, the inviolability of the Koran seemed to matter more than the authority of the Constitution. In defense of Bjørnland's novel interpretation of criminal law, Martin Bernsen, a senior official of the PST, the agency in charge of Norway's national security, argued that burning copies of the Koran can trigger acts of violence. Under this kind of logic, of course – the so-called heckler's veto – any statement or action whatsoever that just might antagonize violence-prone Muslims should presumably be treated as illegal, whereas burning, say, any number of copies of the Talmud or Bible is no problem, since Jews and Christians are not in the habit of responding to such actions with mass acts of savage bloodshed.
Some Norwegian officials argued that setting the Koran, or anything, on fire in public represents so great a practical risk – somebody might get singed – that it justifies immediate police action; never mind that this is a country where the usual means of expressing widely held public opinion about anything is to organize a torchlight procession in which hundreds or thousands of people, some of them small children, carry large flaming objects for blocks at a time down busy city streets before forming a tight crowd outside a public building and holding the flames aloft while listening to speeches.
The newspaper Utrop editorialized that the SIAN protest should not have been permitted in the first place. As for the mayor of Kristiansand, he was upset that the cops did not step in earlier and keep the copy of the Koran intact. This was, in fact, what they were supposed to have done: as a November 20 article at Filter Nyheter revealed, the police in Kristiansand were under direct, explicit, and secret orders from Bjørnland to try to protect any copies of the Koran from being set on fire at the SIAN demo. In an interview with Filter Nyheter, Bjørnland actually stated that while Norwegians enjoy freedom of speech and assembly, there are limits to those rights. Indeed, pronounced Bjørnland, for the police to be too eager in their protection of these freedoms can be "counterproductive." She went on to describe herself and her department as striking a "balance" between protecting and limiting those rights. "We are not a Thought Police," she maintained, "but we do issue guidelines, and when we see violations of our guidelines, we intervene." Puzzle over that one, if you will.
*Bruce Bawer is the author of the new novel The Alhambra (Swamp Fox Editions). His book While Europe Slept (2006) was a New York Times bestseller and National Book Critics Circle Award finalist. His other books include A Place at the Table (1993), Stealing Jesus (1997), Surrender (2009), and The Victims' Revolution (2012). A native New Yorker, he has lived in Europe since 1998.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Iran’s regime in most serious crisis since 1979 as it cracks down on unrest
Thomas Seibert/The Arab Weekly/November 23/2019
ISTANBUL - Iran’s ruling elite has triggered its most serious crisis of legitimacy for the regime since the creation of the Islamic Republic in 1979 by cracking down on a country-wide wave of unrest while failing to address the underlying causes for the protests, analysts said.
The heavy-handed state response is setting the scene for further tension, they said.
“The regime has entered the most serious and most existential crisis since its creation. Given the deep-seated problems, deterrence will work for a short while only,” Ali Fathollah-Nejad, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Centre, said by telephone. “If there is no change, unrest will break out again and again.”
Amnesty International said 106 people were killed in cities around the country during demonstrations triggered by the government announcement November 14 about a cut to subsidies on petrol, raising prices at the pump at least 50% and 200% for motorists who buy more than 60 litres a month.
The move came amid an economic crisis and a currency collapse that have roots in home-grown problems such as corruption and mismanagement and have worsened under a US sanctions policy of “maximum pressure” that has drastically cut crucial profits from oil exports.
Besides sending “security forces using firearms, water cannons and tear gas to disperse protests and beating demonstrators with batons,” Amnesty International said, the government switched off internet access for much of the country. Authorities cut access to the outside world on November 16, an outage that left only state media and government officials able to say what was happening.
“If that doesn’t take legitimacy away, I don’t know what does,” said Arash Azizi, a writer and doctoral candidate in history at New York University. Iranian authorities began restoring internet access in Tehran and a number of provinces November 21.
“The Iranian regime has huge legitimacy problems but it has also failed to provide the most basic economic prosperity to its people,” Arash said. “I believe that it’s just a matter of time and things would erupt again, so long as there is no fundamental economic or political shift, which is not in sight.”
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights issued a statement saying it was “deeply concerned” about reports of live ammunition being used against demonstrators. US President Donald Trump accused Iran of blocking the internet to cover up “death and tragedy” and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged Iranians to send photos and other information documenting repression amid ongoing protests, while vowing to sanction “abuses” by the Iranian government.
The jump in petrol prices represents another burden on Iranians who have suffered through a painful currency collapse following US President Donald Trump’s unilateral withdrawal of the United States from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and the reimposition of US economic sanctions.
Iranian President Hassan Rohani, a moderate who is facing criticism by hardliners three months before parliamentary elections, promised the fuel price increase would fund new subsidies for poor families.
However, the decision unleashed anger among Iranians including Maryam Kazemi, a 29-year-old accountant in the southern Tehran suburb of Khaniabad, who told the Associated Press the new cost of fuel was “putting pressure on ordinary people.”
As state television showed pro-government rallies, top officials of the regime tried to portray the unrest as the result of actions by outside forces opposed to Iran.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on November 20, said the protests were an attack on the country “in the military arena” but not a popular uprising. “The recent actions were security issues, not from the people,” he said. “We have repelled the enemy.”
Rohani also claimed victory over what he called an unrest caused by Iran’s foreign enemies while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said November 21 that calm had returned across Iran. The Basij militia, an IRGC volunteer force whose members were deployed to counter the demonstrators, said the unrest amounted to a “world war” against Iran that failed.
Azizi said that kind of argument was unlikely to convince anyone in Iran because most people saw the economic crisis was a result of political mistakes at home.
“I think that the added problem of the last couple of years is that this is a government that can’t provide you with the most basic economic needs and it’s full of corruption. The corruption involves its heads, its highest officials,” Azizi said.
Fathollah-Nejad said there was no sign that the ruling elites were getting a grip on the socio-economic, political and ecological problems in the country. “There is an insulated mindset that tends to favour more of the same,” he said.
He said unrest in 2017 and 2018 had set the stage for the current situation. “The next chapter could be the last one but, of course, there is no way of knowing how long that chapter will be. What we can say for sure is that the regime has suffered an irreversible loss of legitimacy and this will have consequences,” he added.
“The lower classes have their backs to the wall anyway and they surely will not forget the killings — the image of the regime as an enemy will be strengthened. Even the middle classes — despite their concerns about a lack of alternatives to the regime and about possible chaos in the country — see that the regime cannot guarantee stability either.”
Even a further militarisation of Iran’s domestic political scene through a bigger role for the IRGC would not be a guarantee for calm, because more power for the IRGC “does not mean that they will solve the problems.”
A change of the regime could not be engineered from outside, however, Fathollah-Nejad said.

Iran and the third wave of protests
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/November 23/2019
The protests in Iran are more massive than what we see on screens and social media, as the regime has pulled the plug on the Internet, in an unprecedented move. Public outrage has spread to about 100 cities, touching the regime’s highest religious and political systems and going beyond its main purpose — protesting the doubling of fuel prices — to attack the regime and its legitimacy. Before I put forward the possible outcomes of these protests and the fate of the regime, it is useful to look at the whole picture of the waves of movement on the Iranian street in general. This is the third wave to shake the regime. The first was in 2009, when protesters took to the streets of the capital Tehran. That wave was led by two of the regime’s leaders, Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, to protest election rigging.
The protests were massive, revealed the magnitude of the conflict within the ruling establishment, and exposed the image of the leadership and its relationship with its followers. The protests were suppressed, and its leaders were put under house arrest despite their age.
The second wave was in 2016 and 2017. It broke out because of high prices and poor services, and expanded beyond Tehran, reaching about 50 cities across Iran. Its importance lies in that it expressed the anger of the working class. The regime also cracked down on this wave, which differed from the previous one in that it did not have a leader, which is why it took a long time to quell.
The current, third wave is more massive and extensive. It includes almost all segments of society in Tehran and other major cities. This is why the regime has hurried to deal with it with more violence than the two previous waves. The regime resorted to shutting down communications to prevent people from gathering and sharing influential video footage. The reality is that the regime has been trapped in a corner by US sanctions, which are the toughest and most painful in the regime’s history.
Despite this, the protests have continued, reflecting anger that has nothing to do with incitement, as the regime has claimed. The rage, which has deepened, was spurred by the rise of fuel prices, affecting the middle class as well.
I do not think the regime was surprised by the reaction of the street. The leadership was quick to insist on maintaining the doubled fuel prices, and the supreme leader considers the protests against him treason. President Hassan Rouhani, who could later become the scapegoat, has repeated the same words.
The regime is trapped in a corner by US sanctions, which are the toughest and most painful in the regime’s history. It has no other way to survive but to carry a big stick after depriving its people of services, jobs and subsidized materials. This time, the regime is determined to commit mass murder in order to survive. Some of the protesters, who have no means to defend themselves, have resorted to setting petrol stations and banks on fire as they are the symbols of crisis and power. Leaked images show the intensity of the confrontations, which have reached a new level of violence compared to the previous waves.
In my opinion, this wave will not uproot the regime as it is willing to commit massacres, as it has done in Syria, to survive. But the regime’s foundations, or what is left of them, will be devastated by citizens. The regime has become weaker than at any stage in the history of the ayatollahs’ rule. Iran the revolution, which dominated everything inside and threatened the outside, has come to an end.
*Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel, and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat. Twitter: @aalrashed

Khamenei’s Domestic and Foreign Response Options to the Protests
Patrick Clawson/The Washington Institute./November 23/2019
The Supreme Leader faces tough choices about who to blame for the protests, and what impact they should have on policy toward the United States.
As Tehran attempts to contain ongoing demonstrations sparked by its November 15 decision to raise gasoline prices, many of its options pose dilemmas for the regime and run the risk of backfiring. On the tactical side, for instance, shutting down the Internet makes it more difficult for protestors to organize, but also leaves people with more time on their hands, likely spurring at least some of them to go out into the street—a phenomenon seen in Egypt in 2011, when demonstrations grew significantly after Internet restrictions were imposed. This PolicyWatch focuses on two other sets of choices that have come before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other hardliners since the unrest began: who to blame for the protests, and which options to pursue toward the United States.
WHO TO BLAME?
In order to spin the protests in his favor and safeguard the regime’s interests, Khamenei has three main choices for where to lay blame. Hardliners have already begun aiming at these targets, though each option carries political risks:
The United States and other outside powers. Brig. Gen. Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Basij militia forces, has described the protests as “America’s plot.” This fits with Khamenei’s longstanding preoccupations about supposed U.S. sponsorship of color revolutions abroad. For example, the Supreme Leader has previously criticized demonstrations in Venezuela, Hong Kong, Iraq, and Lebanon, claiming that protestors there are doing Washington’s bidding.
The risk of pursuing this line of reasoning is that it suggests Iranians are susceptible to being misled by Washington. Although Khamenei’s followers have long argued this is the case in other contexts—such as warning the public about interacting with Americans or other foreigners—doing so now could anger the many Iranians who are furious about the price increases and see protests as a legitimate response. The regime can ill afford to stoke even broader public cynicism and distaste toward its revolutionary rhetoric.
Delegitimized opposition groups. This is the target Khamenei took aim at in his November 17 speech, stating, “All malicious centers in the world, which work against us, have encouraged these actions. These centers, ranging from the sinister and malicious Pahlavi household to the evil and criminal monafeqeen cult [i.e., the Mujahedin-e Khalq, or MEK], are constantly encouraging such actions in social networks.” This statement was remarkable because Khamenei’s camp had previously dismissed these groups for years and argued that they are utterly without influence. As a result of the speech, the MEK can now crow about how it is a factor in Iranian politics—a claim few analysts would accept. Indeed, Khamenei may be counting on his perception that the group is not widely supported at home or abroad as a way of delegitimizing the protests.
The Rouhani government. Judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi, often described as a leading candidate to succeed Khamenei, has criticized President Hassan Rouhani’s camp for not adequately explaining the case for increasing fuel prices. “One of the prerequisites for this project,” he stated recently, “is the persuasion of public opinion and elite consensus...There is an urgent need today for the media, economists, ministries, and informed public officials to explain the policies to the people.” Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, a member of the Majlis leadership board, added, “The way this policy was implemented was not correct, and the matter should have been clarified for the public beforehand.”
In fact, the possibility of fuel rationing has been widely discussed at least since August, when the government mandated the use of a “gasoline smart card.” At the time, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh noted on state television that no one would take the requirement seriously unless rationing was introduced. Furthermore, if the government acknowledges that the ground was not properly prepared, the public’s most likely rejoinder would be, “Okay, then rescind the increases and let’s discuss them.” Such reversals are a frequent practice in countries that experience these kinds of protests. Yet Khamenei has already put his personal prestige behind the price increases by backing them publicly, so he would be loath to admit he was wrong.
Tehran’s most likely path is to blame all three of these camps. In practice, this probably means different regime figures offering various takes on how much blame to assign to each one.
POLICY OPTIONS TOWARD THE UNITED STATES
Regarding potential actions—or inaction—toward U.S. interests, the protests could steer Tehran toward one of three paths:
After suppressing the protests, agree to talks. This was the regime’s approach after the mass unrest that followed the rigged presidential election of 2009. While those protests were still active, the Ahmadinejad government agreed to send 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium abroad, where Russia and France would fabricate it into fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor. The deal had been worked out in great detail, in part to meet the U.S. and allied interest of lengthening the time Iran would need to develop a nuclear weapon were it so minded. Although Khamenei later rejected the agreement—presumably from some combination of general suspicions about the United States and greater confidence as the protests faded away—the general principle remains in force today, namely, that Iran does not give in to pressure, it gives in to great pressure.
Slap back harder. If Iran decides to resume its recent string of regional military provocations, it may do so as a way of changing the conversation from domestic problems to foreign policy. To the extent that Khamenei sees the United States as responsible for the demonstrations, however, he may also feel the need to show Washington that it will pay a price for stirring up trouble in Iran. On November 20, Kayhan newspaper’s editor-in-chief Hossein Shariatmadari—a close advisor to Khamenei who often expresses opinions that are even more hardline than the Supreme Leader’s—wrote that Iran had a legitimate right to retaliate against the United States, Israel, France, and Saudi Arabia for what he saw as their stirring up the protests: “The enemies have lived in a glass house, and their sensitive and strategic military and economy centers are easily accessible. It is possible to bring them to their knees through imposing heavy financial and military damage.”
Since as early as May, Khamenei and Rouhani have both emphasized the need to gain leverage against the United States. This imperative was apparently the reason behind this summer’s attacks on foreign ships in the Persian Gulf and major oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Those attacks were so well executed that regional powers and the United States gained a newfound respect for Iran’s capabilities. If Tehran orders further attacks, however, they would be measured against this new, higher standard, raising a dilemma for the regime: if new attacks are not as successful as previous ones, Iran would be seen as less of a threat. For the time being, then, Tehran may decide to keep trumpeting its capabilities in public without actually using them.
Wait it out. Various domestic factors may convince the regime that it has enough time to ride out the unrest without taking drastic action at home or abroad. The economy is in bad shape but seems to have bottomed out, with GDP no longer falling. More important, job creation is remarkably robust, and unemployment—a major driver of discontent—is on its way down. Addressing unemployment is not as difficult as it used to be because Iran’s “baby bust” is the cohort currently entering the labor force. That is, the number of citizens turning age twenty this year is around half the figure seen during the mass protests of 2009, so even modest job creation could make a big dent in the number of disaffected young people taking to the streets.
Foreign factors might convince the regime to stand pat as well. For instance, Khamenei may believe that President Trump and his “maximum pressure” policy will no longer be in place after next year’s U.S. election.
Khamenei’s track record strongly suggests his preference is to slap back. Yet on numerous occasions he has instead chosen to be cautious when persuaded that bold action could bring a firm response.
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WASHINGTON
U.S. policymakers should be ready for any of these eventualities. This means adopting a dual approach of heightened vigilance against potential attacks and detailed planning for diplomatic initiatives.
To be sure, resuming talks on nuclear issues or other matters would have many pitfalls. Iran’s practice has been to treat any past concession that the United States or other parties mention publicly as carved in stone—in other words, it insists that such concessions constitute the starting point for all further talks, without Iran making any quid pro quo. For example, the Iranian interpretation of the letter that French president Emmanuel Macron urged Trump to sign in order to schedule a telephone conversation with Rouhani during the UN General Assembly is that the White House was offering to lift all of the sanctions it had imposed. Budging Tehran from that view may be difficult.
Also well worth debating is how U.S. officials should characterize any expressed Iranian willingness to talk. The Trump administration’s likely instinct would be to paint such outreach as vindication of its maximum pressure policy. Yet this reaction could complicate efforts to forge a broad international consensus in talks about a revised nuclear agreement, since other powers may be reluctant to characterize “maximum pressure” as a success. Consensus matters because the best way to get Iran to accept terms it dislikes is to show it that international and regional powers have taken a united stance. Even if talks are limited to bilateral discussions between the United States and Iran, the leverage created by international consensus is a powerful argument for Washington to consult widely with other governments and take their views into account.
*Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and director of research at The Washington Institute.