LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 16/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
All flesh is like grass and all its glory like the flower of grass. The grass withers, and the flower falls, but the word of the Lord endures for ever
First Letter of Peter 01/22-25/:”Now that you have purified your souls by your obedience to the truth so that you have genuine mutual love, love one another deeply from the heart. You have been born anew, not of perishable but of imperishable seed, through the living and enduring word of God. For ‘All flesh is like grass and all its glory like the flower of grass. The grass withers, and the flower falls, but the word of the Lord endures for ever.’ That word is the good news that was announced to you.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 15-16/2019
Farnaud Says No French Solutions for Lebanon, Urges Quick Govt. Formation
Ex-PMs Urge Hariri's Re-Designation as Premier
Reports: Hariri Agrees with Hizbullah, FPM, AMAL on Naming Mohammed Safadi as PM
Agreement on naming Mohammad Safadi as Lebanon’s next PM: Source
Mohammad Safadi agreed to be Prime Minister of Lebanon: Bassil
Lebanon Protesters Angered by PM Pick
Report: Nomination of Safadi for Premiership Fuels Protests
Center House Sources Slam Bassil for Setting Consultations Da
ISF Chief, ABL Discuss Security Measures to Ensure Banks’ Safety
Private Hospitals Sound Alarm over Shortage in Medical Supplies
U.N. Votes to Oblige Israel to Compensate Lebanon
Safieddine Slams 'Hostile' Road-Blocking, Decries Political 'Absence' of Protest Movement
Lebanon to Hold Gasoline Tender Amid Supply Concerns
Lebanon protesters react angrily to finance minister’s appointment as new PM

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 15-16/2019
Islamic Jihad’s scam: Keep up rocket attacks to attrition Israel. Blame “rogue groups
Fresh Israeli strikes against Islamic Jihad targets in Gaza
Israel army to probe ‘unexpected’ harm to civilians in Gaza strike
Ahwazis protest after Iran begins imposing price hikes, rationing of fuel
Turkey vows no ‘step back’ from Russian S-400 purchase
Turkey removes more than 6,000 Syrians from Istanbul: Official
Turkey sends American ISIS fighter to US after stalemate with Greece
Iraq ‘will never be the same’ after protests: top cleric al-Sistani
Baghdad police fire tear gas, live ammunition, kill two Iraqis: Officials
Car bomb kills at least one near protest camp in Baghdad: Authorities
Two killed, 12 injured after IED goes off in Baghdad: Security sources
US says ‘irresponsible’ to ask Iraq to prosecute western extremists
Taliban shifted Western hostages as prisoner swap postponed: Sources
UN aid chief: Over 11 million Syrians need humanitarian aid
Syrian President al-Assad says ‘resistance’ will force US troops out

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 15-16/2019
Lebanese Stockpile Food, Medicine Amid Lingering Crisis/Paula Astih/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 15 November, 2019
HRW says defamation laws used in Lebanon to silence criticsNNA/November 15/2019
Lebanon closer to forming government as banks remain shuttered/Georgi Azar/Annahar/November 15/ 2019
Former Lebanon finance minister Mohammad Safadi proposed as new prime minister/Sunniva Rose//The National/November 15/2019
Who is Mohammad Safadi, Lebanon’s potential new prime minister?/Sunniva Rose/The National/November 15/2019
*Islamic Jihad’s scam: Keep up rocket attacks to attrition Israel. Blame “rogue groups”/DEBKAfile/November 15/2019
The end of globalisation: we are witnessing the start of a new multipolar world order/Mike O'Sullivan/The National/November 15/2019
Israel finds itself in a precarious position as it loses allies in Syria/Sinem Cengiz/Arabic News/November 15/ 2019
Russia embracing former US allies throughout Middle East/Daoud Kuttab/Arabic News/November 15/ 2019
International community’s feeble response to Israeli violence/Ramzy Baroud/Arabic News/November 15/ 2019
Russia embracing former US allies throughout Middle East/Daoud Kuttab/Arabic News/November 15/ 2019
The moral blunder in the Balkans/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Arabic News/November 15/ 2019
Erdoğan’s Undeserving and Underwhelming Visit to DC/David J. Kramer/The American Interest/November 15/2019
Old Tricks and the Iraqi Genie/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/November 15/2019
France: An "Inverted Colonization"/Guy Millière/ Gatestone Institute/November 15/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 15-16/2019
Farnaud Says No French Solutions for Lebanon, Urges Quick Govt. Formation
The French envoy in Lebanon said France has no solutions for the crisis in Lebanon but cautioned that “the difficulties are great and of concern to all,” al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday. Director of the Middle East and North Africa at the French foreign ministry, Christophe Farnaud said an “efficient and effective government capable of taking decisions that respond to the aspirations of the Lebanese people and able to restore confidence must be formed,” according to the daily. Farnaud said his visit to Lebanon aimed to “listen to the Lebanese’ demands, not to suggest solutions” to the crisis. “France has always stood by Lebanon’s side, in good times and difficult times. We are aware of the crisis Lebanon is facing, which is an economic, political and social crisis,” he said. “The solution must be Lebanese. We do not have solutions. The ongoing efforts must be based on three points: speed, effectiveness and credibility," said the French envoy. Farnaud is expected to meet US Assistant Secretary of State David Schenker in Paris. He said: "It is the nature of our work to exchange views from the core of our responsibilities."

Ex-PMs Urge Hariri's Re-Designation as Premier
Naharnet/November 15/2019
Former prime ministers Najib Miqati, Fouad Saniora and Tammam Salam on Friday called for the re-designation of caretaker PM Saad Hariri as premier, hours after Hariri agreed with Hizbullah, the Free Patriotic Movement and the AMAL Movement on nominating ex-minister Mohammed Safadi for the post.
“Since the beginning of the political crisis, we have insisted and today we reiterate our main stance that calls for tasking PM Saad Hariri with forming the new government,” they said in a statement. “In light of the current circumstances, all political forces must facilitate his mission,” the ex-PMs added. Safadi’s reported nomination has angered protesters on the streets, who have been calling for the formation of an independent technocrat cabinet. Sources close to Hariri have meanwhile said that he has agreed to Safadi’s nomination but not to al-Mustaqbal Movement’s participation in the new government or its nature.

Reports: Hariri Agrees with Hizbullah, FPM, AMAL on Naming Mohammed Safadi as PM
Naharnet/November 15/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri has agreed with Hizbullah, the AMAL Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement on nominating ex-finance minister and businessman Mohammed Safadi for the premiership, several Lebanese TV networks reported late on Thursday. The reports emerged after a Center House meeting between Hariri and the political aides of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Speaker Nabih Berri. Center House sources meanwhile told the Hariri-affiliated Mustaqbal Web news portal that the discussions tackled consensus on Safadi's nomination but not the shape of the new government or al-Mustaqbal Movement's participation in it. Social media activists meanwhile erupted in anger over the news as a protest got underway outside Safadi's house in Tripoli.

Agreement on naming Mohammad Safadi as Lebanon’s next PM: Source
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 15 November 2019
Several major Lebanese politicians have agreed on nominating Mohammad Safadi, a former finance minister, as the prime minister of a new government, according to an Al Arabiya source. The agreement took place following a meeting on Friday between outgoing Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Lebanon's leading Sunni politician, and senior representatives of Amal and Hezbollah. Lebanese broadcaster MTV said the government would be a mixture of politicians and technocrats. (With Reuters)

Mohammad Safadi agreed to be Prime Minister of Lebanon: Bassil
Reuters, Beirut/Friday, 15 November 2019
Ex-finance minister Mohammad Safadi has agreed to be Lebanon’s next prime minister if he wins the support of its major parties and the process to name him should begin on Monday, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil told broadcaster MTV on Friday. “I confirm that we have been in contact with minister Safadi and he has agreed to take on the position of prime minister if his name gets agreement with the main political forces in government,” said Bassil. “If matters move normally, the consultations should begin on Monday with Safadi named at the end of them, otherwise we will continue to go in circles waiting to agree on a name,” he added. Sources told Al Arabiya that former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s Future Movement will not be part of the government, but will contribute in forming it.

Lebanon Protesters Angered by PM Pick
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 15/2019
Lebanese protesters who have been demanding radical reform reacted with anger Friday to the reported nomination of a new prime minister they regard as emblematic of a failed political system. According to senior officials speaking on condition of anonymity and Lebanese press reports, key political players agreed that Mohammed Safadi should be tasked with forming the next government. Outgoing Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on October 29, nearly two weeks into the unprecedented nationwide protests demanding the wholesale removal of a ruling elite seen as corrupt and incompetent.
President Michel Aoun has said he will support the formation of a government including technocrats but he has not yet announced consultations over a new line-up and there was no official confirmation that Safadi had been nominated. Demonstrators in his hometown of Tripoli wasted no time in rejecting Safadi, however, and gathered in front of one of his properties to protest against a reported nomination they regard as a provocation. "Choosing Mohammed Safadi for prime minister proves that the politicians who rule us are in a deep coma, as if they were on another planet," said Jamal Badawi, 60. Another protester said that as a business tycoon and former minister, Safadi epitomized the political class that the protest movement wants to remove. "He's an integral part of this leadership's fabric," said Samer Anous, a university professor. "Safadi does not meet the aspirations of the popular uprising in Lebanon." Demonstrators also rallied Friday night outside Safadi's home in Beirut. "Mohammed Safadi is corrupt and we are here to say that the revolutionaries are categorically opposed to see him at the head of the government," said protester Ali Noureddine.A protest was also planned at Zaitunay Bay, a luxury marina in central Beirut which is run by a company that Safadi chairs and which many say encroaches on public land.

Report: Nomination of Safadi for Premiership Fuels Protests
Naharnet/November 15/2019
Reports that political parties agreed to nominate ex-finance minister Mohammed al-Safadi to line-up the new Lebanese government did not appease the 30-day old uprising demanding an overhaul of the entire political class. Late on Thursday protests erupted in anger over the news that Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri has reportedly agreed with Hizbullah, the AMAL Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement on nominating Safadi for the premiership. They blocked the Zouk Mosbeh highway with burning tires and a protest got underway outside Safadi's house in the northern city of Tripoli.
Al-Joumhouria newspaper quoted “observers” who wondered if Safadi’s nomination was a “trap” to upheat the revolution or a “solution” to meet the people’s demands. Safadi himself did not comment on the matter, said the daily. But a source close to him said: “Nomination of the new prime minister takes place during binding parliamentary consultations with respect for the Constitution and the position.” He stressed that "any government must meet the aspirations of the people and their demands."Safadi’s reported nomination emerged after a Center House meeting between Hariri and the political aides of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Speaker Nabih Berri. Center House sources meanwhile told the Hariri-affiliated Mustaqbal Web news portal that the discussions tackled consensus on Safadi's nomination but not the shape of the new government or al-Mustaqbal Movement's participation in it.

Center House Sources Slam Bassil for Setting Consultations Date
Naharnet/November 15/2019
A political source close to the Center House on Friday criticized Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil for announcing a date for the binding parliamentary consultations aimed at picking a new PM. “Minister Bassil set a date for the consultations before the President’s move in this regard and he spoke on behalf of the premier who will be designated, announcing that the government’s formation will be quick,” the source lamented in remarks reported by Lebanese TV networks. “Minister Bassil is trying to repair his situation at the expense of the jurisdiction of others, and if he truly wants to offer a favor to the presidential tenure and the presidency, he must request a vacation from making statements,” the source added. Informed sources meanwhile told al-Jadeed TV that caretaker PM Saad Hariri did not commit to anything other than agreeing to the nomination of ex-minister Mohammed Safadi during his meeting with the political aides of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Speaker Nabih Berri on Thursday. Hariri endorsed Safadi because “the other parties did not accept anyone other than him although Hariri proposed several candidates,” the sources said. “Hariri wants to quickly wrap up the caretaker phase, that’s why we have committed to naming Safadi, but we have not committed to taking part in the government pending designation and our knowledge of the shape of the expected government,” the sources added. Bassil had earlier on Friday announced that Safadi “has agreed to being designated premier should his nomination win the approval of the main political forces that constitute the (resigned) government.”“Should things move forward normally, the consultations are expected to begin on Monday after which Safadi will be designated, or else we will remain in the procrastination square pending an agreement on a premiership candidate,” Bassil added. Asked about the period that the formation of the new government will take, the FPM chief said: “It should not be a long period, seeing as the main political forces are convinced that there is a need to speed up the formation of a government that can pull the country out of its crisis.”

ISF Chief, ABL Discuss Security Measures to Ensure Banks’ Safety
Naharnet/November 15/2019
Under the direction of Minister of Interior Raya el-Hassan, a meeting was held between Internal Security Forces chief, Major General Imad Othman and a delegation from the Association of Banks in Lebanon, that agreed to take appropriate security measures to ensure the safe operation of this vital facility, a statement issued by the Ministry said. The Ministry for its part expressed commitment to the agreement, added the statement. Banks were closed after their employees called for a general strike over alleged mistreatment by customers last week. On Tuesday, the union of banks said they were striving to ensure safe working conditions so employees could return to work as soon as possible. Banks have restricted access to dollars since the start of the protests, sparking fears of a devaluation of the local currency and discontent among account holders. The central bank on Monday however insisted the Lebanese pound would remain pegged to the dollar and said it had asked banks to lift restrictions on withdrawals. Unprecedented protests erupted across Lebanon on October 17, demanding the ouster of a generation of politicians seen by demonstrators as inefficient and corrupt.

Private Hospitals Sound Alarm over Shortage in Medical Supplies
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 15/2019
Owners and employees of private hospitals in protest-wragged Lebanon staged a warning strike on Friday over shortage in medical supplies triggered by dollar shortage. The Syndicate of private hospital owners called for the strike. They stopped all medical and health services except for emergencies, raising the slogan "We are on the last breath." Association of Private Hospitals, President Suleiman Haroun, told MTV: “ We are sounding the alarm in hospitals because suppliers have stopped delivering medical supplies because of the failure to pay dues.” Haroun explained: “We can not go on strike like other sectors do, we just sound the alarm. The maximum we do is receive patients, but we won't be able to provide the appropriate treatment for them.” For two decades until several weeks ago, the Lebanese dollar has been pegged to the greenback, and both currencies were used interchangeably in daily life. But banks have gradually been reducing access to dollars since the end of the summer. Haroun had earlier warned in a statement that medical "stocks in the country will not last more than a month,” requesting banks to facilitate money transfers in US dollars for importers of medical supplies.
He also called on the state to pay pending bills to hospitals and doctors working under the health ministry.

U.N. Votes to Oblige Israel to Compensate Lebanon
Naharnet/November 15/2019
The U.N. on Friday voted in favor of obliging Israel to pay Lebanon compensations over the 2006 oil spill caused by its bombing of the seaside Jiye power plant. According to a tweet posted by MP Hagop Terzian, the U.N. decision obliges Israel to pay Lebanon $856.4 million in compensations. 158 member states voted in favor of the resolution as nine rejected it and six abstained. The oil spill was caused by an Israeli airstrike on oil storage tanks during the 2006 war.

Safieddine Slams 'Hostile' Road-Blocking, Decries Political 'Absence' of Protest Movement
Naharnet/November 15/2019
A senior Hizbullah official on Friday said the tensions of the past few days in Lebanon are “totally unjustified.” “After what happened over the past few days, and after the blatant political and partisan interferences, we have to ask and the protest movement has to ask about the identity of those sides that have a political program and are seeking to push the country into tensions and push the protest movement to practice harm and aggression against the rest of the people,” the head of Hizbullah’s executive council, Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, said. “Is the blocking of roads a democratic or a demands-related act? The blocking of roads is a hostile act and this method of pressure carries an incorrect approach,” Safieddine added. “You have voiced your stance and the people heard it, and I believe that the real protest movement is not concerned with all these methods which it doesn’t need,” the Hizbullah official went on to say.
He added: “We don’t believe that the protest movement has become this weak to resort to a method that reflects weakness, which is the method of blocking roads and harming people. This harms the protest movement itself.”Noting that protesters know the sides that want to implicate them, Safieddine said the Lebanese also know the “unsuccessful and incompetent politicians” who are allegedly seeking to exploit their demos. “They have not managed to maintain their political stances through their own means and they are the ones who bear the responsibility for what is happening,” the Hizbullah official added.
Warning all parties that Lebanon should not “descend into further tensions,” Safieddine lamented the protest movement’s political “absence.” “Why don’t you proclaim yourselves so that you become present and reap what you have achieved with your hands, screams and street protests? Why are you leaving things to others who are speaking in your name through the blocking of roads and the imposition of a political program?” the Hizbullah official added.

Lebanon to Hold Gasoline Tender Amid Supply Concerns
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 15 November, 2019
Lebanon will hold a tender for gasoline in December, Energy Minister Nada Boustany said on Friday, as it looks to stave off a potential supply shortage brought on by worsening economic conditions. A state tender for gasoline is unusual in import-dependent Lebanon, where fuel is typically procured by private companiesm Reuters reported. However, the ongoing protests over the poor state of the economy have led to bank closures, which in turn impacted traders’ ability to buy from abroad. A tender announcement from the Energy and Water Ministry said Lebanon was seeking 150,000 tonnes of 95 octane gasoline and the deadline for offers is December 2. “I expect good results from the tender and from there we will see how the market will move,” Boustani told broadcaster LBC. The central bank said last month that it would prioritize foreign currency reserves for fuel, medicine and wheat but traders say their ability to transfer payments to suppliers has been complicated by the bank closures. Banks, which were shut for half of October, closed again this week over staff security concerns. According ti Reuters, most transfers out of the country have been blocked and, with US dollars scarce, the pegged Lebanese pound is weakening on the black market.

Lebanon protesters react angrily to finance minister’s appointment as new PM
AFP/November 15/ 2019
BEIRUT: Lebanese protesters who have been demanding radical reform reacted with anger Friday to the reported designation of a new prime minister they regard as emblematic of a failed political system. According to senior officials speaking on condition of anonymity and Lebanese press reports, key political players agreed that Mohammed Safadi should be tasked with forming the next government. Outgoing Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on October 29, nearly two weeks into the unprecedented nationwide protests demanding the wholesale removal of a ruling elite seen as corrupt and incompetent.
President Michel Aoun has said he will support the formation of a government including technocrats but he has not yet announced consultations over a new line-up and there was no official confirmation that Safadi had been designated. Demonstrators in his hometown of Tripoli wasted no time in rejecting Safadi, however, and gathered in front of one of his properties to protest against a reported nomination they regard as a provocation.
"Choosing Mohammed Safadi for prime minister proves that the politicians who rule us are in a deep coma, as if they were on another planet," said Jamal Badawi, 60. Another protester said that as a business tycoon and former minister, Safadi was an embodiment of the kind of political class the protest movement wants to remove. "He's an integral part of this leadership's fabric," said Samer Anous, a university professor. "Safadi does not meet the aspirations of the popular uprising in Lebanon." A protest was planned in the afternoon at Zaytuna Bay, a luxury marina in central Beirut which is fun by a company that Safadi chairs and which many say encroaches on public land. Several dozen private hospitals across the country closed their doors to patients -- except for emergencies -- to protest shortages of essential goods following delays in payments by the state.
Last week the head of the syndicate of private hospitals, Suleiman Haroun, said that current medical "stocks in the country will not last more than a month". A lack of access to the US currency meant the situation could deteriorate fast, he warned. Banks, which have restricted access to dollars since the start of the protests, remained closed after employees went on strike over alleged mistreatment by customers, while many school and university classes were disrupted again. For two decades the Lebanese pound has been pegged to the greenback at around 1,500 to the dollar, with both currencies used interchangeably in daily life. The army meanwhile said it had arrested 20 demonstrators on Friday after soldiers were targeted as they attempted to reopen roads closed by protesters. Nine were later released, seven were held for questioning and four were transferred to the military police, the army said without giving further details.

Lebanese Stockpile Food, Medicine Amid Lingering Crisis
Paula Astih/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 15 November, 2019
The road from central Beirut to Dora area is unusually car-free at noon. This same highway has always seen traffic jams before the October 17 uprising, and the Lebanese have long complained about it and demanded radical solutions. The closure of a large number of businesses and schools, and the decision of many institutions to reduce the number of employees or their working hours due to the monetary crisis has automatically reflected on road traffic. The war scenario is back to haunt the Lebanese, who have rushed in the past few days to buy necessities and supplies. Some supermarkets and bakeries had to take measures such as limiting the number of packs of bread that can be purchased, as well as bags of rice and some other basic items.Pharmacies have also seen a big wave of rush, especially on infant milk formula. A pharmacist in Mount Lebanon recounted that one woman bought all the milk packs of a particular brand he had on the shelf, as well as all the diapers available, for her 8-month-old baby, which forced him to limit the number of milk packs a customer could buy to only three.
In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said: “The people are living with the obsession of war and preparing for it; so many deliberately buy large quantities of medicine for fear of [import] interruption.”
Shopping malls, which are usually crowded at this time of the year, before Christmas and New Year, are devoid of customers, prompting many shops to advertise early sales that did not attract shoppers. Those already find it difficult to withdraw their money from banks that no longer open as usual.
While most of the Lebanese are preparing for the war by withdrawing their available funds from the banks and stockpiling food and medicine, many are ready for leaving the country if the security situation further deteriorates. A woman said she was issuing a passport for her 3-year-old child and a visa from the US embassy as she and her husband hold a visa, adding that she would not hesitate to leave the country if the situation took a dramatic path. However, Riad Kahwaji, head of the Middle East and Gulf Center for Military Analysis, ruled out the return to war, stressing that the geopolitical situation that existed in the region and the world on the eve of the 1975 civil war in Lebanon was completely different from the current one. “Today, all Lebanese regions and towns are rebelling against the regime and the political forces combined,” Kahwaji noted in remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat.
“War needs armed parties and military forces, but today the only force capable of confrontation is Hezbollah,” he stressed.

HRW says defamation laws used in Lebanon to silence critics
NNA/November 15/2019
- Lebanese authorities have been increasing their reliance on insult and defamation laws to silence journalists, activists, and others critical of government policies and corruption, Human Rights Watch said in a report released today.
The 122-page report, "‘There is a Price to Pay’: The Criminalization of Peaceful Speech in Lebanon," finds that powerful political and religious figures have increasingly used the country’s criminal insult and defamation laws against people leveling accusations of corruption and reporting on the country’s worsening economic and political situation. Convictions under these laws can lead to prison terms of up to three years. Parliament should urgently repeal the laws that criminalize speech, some of which date from Ottoman and French Mandate periods.
"Criminal defamation laws are a potent weapon for those in Lebanon who want to silence criticism and debate about pressing social and human rights issues," said Joe Stork, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch. "At this critical juncture, Lebanese officials should safeguard, not stifle, free expression."
Over the past year, Human Rights Watch has interviewed 42 defendants and lawyers in criminal defamation cases as well as government officials and civic leaders. Most defendants reported self-censoring after intimidating experiences resulting from defamation cases.
On October 17, 2019, thousands of people took to the streets to protest new taxes. The protests quickly evolved into widespread public anger against the entire political establishment, whom protesters blame for the country’s dire economic situation and accuse of endemic corruption. The country is experiencing a dollar shortage, with serious implications for the ability to import necessary goods, including medicine, wheat, and fuel.
On September 30, local media reported that the president’s office released a statement stating that -- those who broadcast fabricated incidents or false allegations about a decline in the national banknotes to undermine confidence in the state’s robust liquidity and bonds "will be sentenced between six months to three years in jail."
On October 1, the Cybercrimes Bureau summoned Amer Shibani, a Mostaqbal Web journalist, for a three-hour interrogation after he posted on Twitter that his local bank was not dispensing dollars. Officials "requested" that he delete his Tweet, which he did. On October 5, four Lebanese lawyers filed a complaint against The Economist magazine, accusing it of damaging Lebanon’s reputation and insulting the Lebanese flag in its reporting on the country’s dollar shortage.
One of the main protester demands has been to hold officials accountable for corruption. In response, officials accused of corruption have been using defamation laws to intimidate their critics. Riad Kobeissi, an investigative journalist, said that a public official filed at least two defamation cases against him, the latest after he released documents, call recordings, and WhatsApp messages on October 31 that he said implicated the official in corrupt practices. A prosecutor subsequently charged the official with wasting public funds based on Kobeissi’s evidence.
After mass protests in 2015, Lebanon witnessed an alarming increase in attacks on peaceful speech and expression. The Cybercrimes Bureau -- an Internal Security Forces (ISF) unit tasked with combatting cybercrime and enhancing online security -- initiated 3,599 defamation investigations between January 2015 and May 2019. The numbers the bureau provided to Human Rights Watch indicate a 325 percent increase in defamation cases for online speech between 2015 and 2018, coinciding with the worsening economic conditions and public disillusionment.
Criminal courts have sentenced at least three people to prison for defamation in this period. One was given nine sentences ranging from two months to six months in separate criminal cases filed against him by the same politician. The Publications Court issued at least one prison sentence during the same period, and military courts have issued three, two of them overturned on appeal.
Although most of these sentences were in absentia, Human Rights Watch found that the prosecution and security agencies improperly, and sometimes illegally, intimidated and tried to silence people charged in these cases.
In at least four cases, armed guards aggressively arrested people accused of defamation in a manner vastly disproportionate to their alleged offense. In one case, about 10 armed police officers stormed the offices of the online publication Daraj and arrested its co-founder and editor-in-chief, Hazem al-Amin, over a defamation lawsuit. "The way they were driving in the street, with the sirens and the convoy, it’s as if they caught [Islamic State leader] Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi," al-Amin told Human Rights Watch.
People interviewed described physical and psychological interrogation tactics they believed were intended to humiliate, punish, and deter them from criticizing powerful local people. Defendants said that interrogators looked through their phones and social media accounts, sometimes without a judicial order.
Interrogators pressured people to sign pledges not to criticize the complainant or to remove their offending content immediately, before they were able to present their defense in court and in some cases without any charges being brought. Nine people Human Rights Watch interviewed spent time in pretrial detention, in one case 18 days, over defamation charges.
Some people investigated for defamation felt forced into self-imposed exile for fear of arrest or harassment. Others lost their jobs and found it difficult to find new work. Fines and other sanctions have had a significant financial impact on many defendants and their publications.
Lebanon’s constitution guarantees freedom of expression "within the limits established by law," but the penal code criminalizes defamation against public officials and authorizes imprisonment for up to one year. The penal code also authorizes sentences of up to two years for insulting the president and up to three years for insulting religious rituals. The military code of justice punishes insulting the flag or army with up to three years in prison.
Parliament is debating a new media law that would amend the existing defamation provisions for published content. Although the proposed law prohibits pretrial detention for all publishing crimes, including those on social media, it does not remove prison sentences for alleged defamation and in some instances increases prison time and fines.
Parliament should ensure that the new media law meets international human rights standards, including by banning imprisonment for all speech crimes, Human Rights Watch said. Laws that allow imprisonment for criticizing individuals or government officials are incompatible with Lebanon’s international obligations to protect freedom of expression. Parliament should also repeal the defamation provisions in the penal code and replace them with civil defamation provisions.
"As Lebanon begins the painstaking process of addressing its economic crisis and holding those responsible for major human rights abuses to account, its laws need to protect people who expose corruption and misconduct," Stork said. "To that end, parliament should urgently decriminalize defamation."--HRW

Lebanon closer to forming government as banks remain shuttered
Georgi Azar/Annahar/November 15/ 2019
The quest for a new Prime Minister could soon be completed after Lebanon's main political parties came to a preliminary agreement on the former finance minister to head the next government.
BEIRUT: Caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil said he expects Mohamad Safadi to be designated the next prime minister with parliamentary consultations scheduled for next week.
Bassil's comments came during a discussion with a local TV station before he seemingly backtracked saying that "they lacked details."
The quest for a new Prime Minister could soon be completed after Lebanon's main political parties came to a preliminary agreement on the former finance minister to head the next government.
Safadi's name gained traction after current Prime Minister Saad Hariri rejected advances to head a government that includes rival political members. On Thursday, Hariri met with top political aides to Speaker Nabih Berri and Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah. Hariri, sources say, cautiously backed Safadi and would not "veto" his designation.
Hariri, would not, however, confirm his party's participation in the next government, casting doubt on whether he would throw his full weight behind Safadi. Despite Hezbollah and its Christian ally the Free Patriotic Movement pushing for a mixed Cabinet, tagged as a "techno-political" government, Hariri has refused to budge. He has vehemently opposed proposals to head the new Cabinet unless it would solely be comprised of independent technocrats.
Berri, sources say, is an ardent supporter of Hariri heading the government, yet his pleas seem to be falling on deaf ears.
Hariri submitted his resignation over two weeks ago after massive demonstrations, sparked by a proposed WhatsApp tax, engulfed Beirut and beyond.
Demonstrators have been calling for a complete overhaul of the country's decades-old confessional system while denouncing the ruling elite who they blame for pushing Lebanon toward the brink of a financial collapse.
As Safadi's name began circulating, protestors were quick to rebuke Safadi's nomination, who they accuse of rampant corruption and cut from the same cloth of the ruling elite they are protesting against.
"This is a joke, he won't make past a week," one protestor in Jal el Dib told Annahar, accusing him of taking part in shady dealings spanning several industries.
The career politician has assumed public office on a number of occasions, serving as Minister of Public works and Transport from 2005 to 2008 and as Finance Minister in Najib Mikati's government from 2011 till 2014.
The formation of a government is seen as the first step for Lebanon to kickstart its recovery and avoid an economic collapse not seen since the conclusion of the civil war in 1990.
Banks have remained shuttered since late last week, citing security concerns and the lack "of a framework to ensure the safety of employees." Lebanon's bank staff union has called for employees to stay on strike to avoid confrontations with angry customers looking to withdraw their deposits.
Lebanon's banking sector was also dealt another blow Thursday after Standard & Poor downgraded some Lebanese banks in the midst of a dollar liquidity crisis and mounting pressure.
S&P downgraded Bank Audi, BLOM Bank and Bankmed's long term credit ratings to CCC from B-minus. The agency also lowered to C the short-term issuer credit rating for Bank Audi and Bankmed. It maintained CreditWatch negative on the banks.
This comes in the wake of Fitch downgrading both Bank Audi and Byblos Bank further into junk territory, while Lebanon's sovereign rating was lowered to Caa2.

Former Lebanon finance minister Mohammad Safadi proposed as new prime minister
Sunniva Rose//The National/November 15/2019
News of property billionaire's candidacy triggers more protests in home city of Tripoli
Lebanese caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil on Friday confirmed reports that property tycoon and former finance Mohammad Safadi was being considered to take the post of prime minister in a new government of technocrats demanded by protesters. The move, first reported on Thursday night, prompted protests in the billionaire's home city of Tripoli and was dismissed as unlikely by a member of caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri's party. Mr Bassil told the broadcaster MTV that Mr Safadi had agreed to accept the post if he won the support of major parties, and that the process to formally appoint him should begin on Monday. "If matters move normally, the consultations should begin on Monday with Safadi named at the end of them, otherwise we will continue to go in circles waiting to agree on a name," MTV quoted Mr Bassil as saying. The nomination of Mr Safadi, 75, was agreed at a meeting between Mr Hariri, Lebanon's leading Sunni politician, and senior representatives of the Shiite groups Amal and Hezbollah, according to sources quoted in Lebanese media. However, Moustapha Allouche, a political bureau member in Mr Hariri's Future Movement party, said there were several factors that made Mr Safadi's nomination unlikely, including his age and the challenges he would face amid the country's acute economic crisis.
"He’s outside the country now and he’s old and his health is not good enough," Mr Allouche told The National. "At the same time, he’s not ready for this type of government where he has to fight with everyone around." Mr Allouche suggested Mr Safadi's was name "was just thrown among people as a test". The reaction was immediate in the northern city Tripoli, a Sunni stronghold that Mr Safadi has represented in parliament. Demonstrators gathered in front of one of his properties to protest against his nomination, which they said was the opposite of the changes demanded in a month of protests across the country.
As a business tycoon and former minister, Mr Safadi is an embodiment of the kind of political class the protest movement wants to remove, Samer Anous, a university professor, told AFP. "He's an integral part of this leadership's fabric. Safadi does not meet the aspirations of the popular uprising in Lebanon," he said. Another protester, 60-year-old Jamal Badawi, said: "Choosing Mohammed Safadi for prime minister proves that the politicians who rule us are in a deep coma, as if they were on another planet."A protest was planned on Friday afternoon at Zaytuna Bay, a luxury marina in central Beirut which is run by a company Mr Safadi chairs. Mr Safadi has courted controversy in the past and was once investigated as part of the UK's Serious Fraud Office's controversial arms deal inquiry.
His property firms have previously received contracts from the British arms company BAE.
Mr Hariri quit as premier on October 29 in response to protesters' demands for sweeping change in Lebanon's political system and an end to corruption and sectarian cronyism but politicians had been unable to agree on a new cabinet. Lebanon’s caretaker Defence Minister, Elias Bou Saab, said on Thursday that the country was in a “very dangerous situation” and compared recent street unrest to the start of the 1975-1990 civil war. Rallies have been overwhelmingly peaceful but a protester was shot dead in an altercation with soldiers on Tuesday. A funeral was held for the protester, a follower of Druze politician Walid Jumblatt, while the soldier who shot him has been detained. Mr Bou Saab said tension on the street and road closures “have reminded us of the civil war, what happened in 1975. And this situation is very dangerous". An ally of President Michel Aoun, he said demonstrators had the right to protest and to be protect d, but the army and security services could not tolerate violence. Mr Aoun had said he hoped a government could be soon formed to meet the demands of the protesters.

Who is Mohammad Safadi, Lebanon’s potential new prime minister?
Sunniva Rose/The National/November 15/2019
Billionaire politician has been embroiled in a number of controversies
Three of Lebanon's main political parties agreed on 75-year old former finance minister and billionaire businessman Mohammad Safadi on Thursday evening as their choice to become Lebanon’s new prime minister.
Caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), confirmed on Friday that Mr Safadi would be nominated for the post when formal deliberations on forming the next government begin in parliament on Monday.
By picking a well-connected moderate Sunni Muslim such as Mr Safadi, Lebanese leaders might be seeking reassure the international community as the country lurches towards economic collapse.
But Mr Safadi, who amassed his fortune largely through real estate, is also a retired politician with a string of alleged corruption cases behind him, and protesters have clearly demanded a change from the Lebanon's current political elite, whom they consider to be old and corrupt. “Mr Safadi is a personality who could build trust with the international community but I think his nomination will fail, especially with the young and the spirit of the revolution demanding radical change” said Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs in Lebanon.
“It’s quite an audacious choice. They are not listening to what people want,” Sami Atallah director of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies, told The National. “This could be a litmus test. If they have another candidate in mind that they really want, they could backtrack and introduce another name.”
Mr Safadi made his fortune mainly in real estate dealings in Saudi Arabia and the UK, where he lived during Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war. He moved back to Lebanon in 1995 and entered politics a few years later when he was elected to parliament from his home town of Tripoli in 2000, a seat he held for nearly two decades.
During that time he served as minister of public works and transport, from 2005 to 2008, acting minister of water and energy (2007-2008), economy minister (2008-2011), and finance minister (2011-2014). Mr Safadi is said to be close to caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who resigned on October 29, having withdrawn from the parliamentary election in Tripoli last year to support Mr Hariri’s Future Movement. His wife Violette Safadi, 38, a former TV presenter and a public affairs consultant at the economy and finance ministries between 2010 and 2013, was appointed minister of state for economic empowerment of women and youth in the government Mr Hariri formed in January. Both Mr Safadi and Mr Hariri are Sunni Muslims, a requirement to be prime minister in Lebanon, where leadership posts are divided among the country’s different religious groups.
Mr Safadi is considered to be a moderate politician despite accusations of having ties with Lebanon’s pro-Syrian political parties, represented by the three parties who nominated him on Thursday: the FPM, Hezbollah and its Shiite ally Amal. “His keeps his affinities with pro-Syrian parties discreet. He does not flaunt them like some other Tripoli politicians,” Ornella Antar, a freelance journalist from Tripoli, told The National.
As soon as Mr Safadi’s name was put forward on Thursday, Lebanese social media was inundated with videos highlighting his connection to high-profile corruption cases and flashy real estate projects. The most high-profile corruption case Mr Safadi has alleged links to dates back to 2006, when his name came up in a UK investigation into a controversial arms deal between British arms company BAE and Saudi Arabia, according to British newspaper The Guardian. In 2010, BAE agreed to pay nearly $450 million (Dh1.65bn) in penalties to end long-running investigations into questionable payments both in the UK and in the United States. In Lebanon, Mr Safadi has invested in Zeitunah Bay, a luxury waterfront development in the capital that has become a symbol of the disparity between the country’s elite and the majority of Lebanese citizens who struggle to make ends meet.
Critics also highlighted on social media Mr Safadi's defence of Shadi Mawlawi, a Sunni Islamist active in Tripoli whose arrest by the General Security directorate in 2012, for links to an "armed terrorist organisation", triggered deadly sectarian clashes in the city.
“His support of Mawlawi at the time was well-received by the majority of Tripoli’s Sunni population,” said Ms Antar. “His links with Sunni terrorism might be exaggerated. But there have been rumours that he is corrupt, like many other Lebanese politicians.”

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 15-16/2019
Islamic Jihad’s scam: Keep up rocket attacks to attrition Israel. Blame “rogue groups”
DEBKAfile/November 15/2019
The Israeli air force struck Islamic Jihad targets in Gaza early Friday, Nov. 15, after several rounds of Palestinian rocket fire blew away the “ceasefire” shortly after it went into effect early Thursday. The rockets were aimed at Sderot and other locations near the border, after the IDF Home Command had assured citizens they could come out of their shelters after 48 hours of confinement. Iron Dome went into action three times. Overnight, Israeli air strikes demolished a Jihad missile components plant and the Khan Younis Brigade command center. The Palestinian terrorist Islamic Jihad group is using the “ceasefire” for a sly subterfuge. While pretending to accept the truce, for the benefit of the IDF and the UN and Egyptian peace brokers, they continued to shoot rockets, putting the blame on “rogue” elements out of their control. DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources stress that this is hogwash. Those rockets come straight out of the Jihad arsenal. They are put in the hands of dissident elements critical of the ceasefire and serve the group’s strategy for subjecting Israel to a drawn-out war of attrition. This is intended to keep Israel constantly on the hop by unexpected bursts of short-range rocket fire coming after calm passages.  On Thursday, Israel’s leaders patted themselves on the back for coming out of Jihad’s rocket war without a single casualty, wiping out much of its war machine and liquidating a score or more of wanted terrorists. The onset of a war of attrition hardly came up. But it was uppermost in the minds of the dwellers of Sderot and the dozen locations within easy rocket range of the Gaza Strip. Heads of the local councils countermanded a IDF Home Command directives and ordered their schools to remain closed on Friday.

Fresh Israeli strikes against Islamic Jihad targets in Gaza
AFP/Friday, 15 November 2019
Israel’s army said early Friday it had launched fresh strikes against Islamic Jihad targets in Gaza, despite a ceasefire in place since Thursday morning. “The IDF (Israeli Defence Force) is currently striking Islamic Jihad terror targets in the Gaza strip,” the army said in a WhatsApp message to reporters.
The ceasefire had been agreed between Israel and Palestinian militants after two days of fighting in Gaza triggered by an Israeli strike on an Islamic Jihad commander. Thirty-four Palestinians have been killed in the recent exchanges of fire.

Israel army to probe ‘unexpected’ harm to civilians in Gaza strike
AFP, JerusalemFriday, 15 November 2019
Israel’s military said Friday it would investigate unexpected civilian casualties in a strike the previous day on an Islamic Jihad target in the Gaza Strip. “According to the information available to the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) at the time of the strike, no civilians were expected to be harmed,” the army said, after eight members of the same Palestinian family were killed.

Ahwazis protest after Iran begins imposing price hikes, rationing of fuel
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 15 November 2019
Several citizens across Ahwaz began protesting on Friday after Iranian authorities introduced gasoline rationing and price hikes. Videos being shared on social media showed protesters gathering in squares across the southwestern city of Ahwaz in Iran’s Khuzestan province. One video showed tires being burned to block the roads while another showed a group of protesters shouting anti-regime slogans near a petrol station. A report by state news agency IRNA early on Friday said every private car will now have a 60-liter monthly quota at about 13 cents per liter, up from nine cents. Taxis and ambulances have a quota of up to 500 liters at 13 cents. Beyond that, the price is 26 cents per liter. The price hikes and rationing come just days after President Hassan Rouhani said Iran in recent months has been facing its “the most difficult” time in decades. Speaking to the Reuters news agency in Tehran, several Iranians said they fear the price hikes would now worsen an already falling economy. “The situation will worsen for the people. You see now that the price of fuel was 1,000 Tomans (10,000 Rials = 0.08 USD) and now it is 3,000 Tomans (30,000 Rials = 0.25 USD). Everything, including food products, will become more expensive. People's economic situation will only get worse, it can't get better. It will be good for the government, because the income from fuel will triple,” industrial town employee Davood Tayyebi said. "In Tehran and the rest of Iran, everything is dependent on fuel (prices). If the price of fuel goes up in the night, by day the price of rent will go up, as well as other living expenses, including fruit, vegetables, cereals, and everything. It affects everything, which is very bad. I really believe that it will paralyze a class of society, especially the laboring class," Mahboobeh Bakhtiari said.

Turkey vows no ‘step back’ from Russian S-400 purchase
AFP/Saturday, 16 November 2019
Turkey on Friday vowed there would be no “step back” from Ankara’s controversial purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system despite the threat of US sanctions. “There is no question of a step backward, Turkey will activate the S-400,” promised President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin, in an interview with state broadcaster TRT Haber. Ankara’s deal with Russia and the subsequent delivery of the system in July has been a major source of tension between NATO allies Turkey and the United States. Last month the US said Turkey would be spared sanctions under a 2017 law if the S-400 system is not turned on. The American act, known as CAATSA, mandates sanctions for any “significant” purchases of weapons from Russia. Turkey was also removed from the F-35 fighter jet program as a consequence of the purchase.The issue was on the agenda during Erdogan’s talks with US President Donald Trump on Wednesday. Trump told reporters after their meeting that Turkey’s acquisition created “serious challenges” for Washington as he said officials would “immediately” get to work on resolving the issue. Kalin said the “joint mechanism” to address the tensions over the F-35 program and S-400s had begun on Friday. As relations between Ankara and Moscow strengthen, Kalin added that Russian President Vladimir Putin planned to visit Turkey in the first week of January 2020. Among the issues on the agenda during the visit will be Syria after Russia and Turkey agreed last month on the withdrawal of a Syrian Kurdish militia from the war-torn country’s north following Erdogan’s Russia trip.

Turkey removes more than 6,000 Syrians from Istanbul: Official
Reuters, Istanbul/Friday, 15 November 2019
Turkey has sent more than 6,000 Syrian migrants in Istanbul to temporary housing centers in other provinces since early July, the local governor’s office said on Friday, two weeks after a deadline for Syrians not registered in the city to leave. Authorities had given Syrians not registered in Istanbul until Oct. 30 to move to another province or face forced removal from the city. Turkey hosts more than 3.6 million Syrians, the largest population of Syrians displaced by an eight-year civil war. The number of Syrians in Istanbul, a city of some 15 million, has swelled to more than half a million.
The Istanbul governor’s office said 6,416 unregistered Syrians were removed from Istanbul since July 12. Sentiment towards Syrian refugees in Turkey has soured in recent years. Ankara wants to settle part of them in a swathe of land it now controls in northeast Syria, after it launched an offensive last month against the Kurdish YPG militia. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch last month published reports saying Turkey is forcibly sending Syrian refugees to northern Syria. Turkey’s Foreign Ministry called the claims in the reports “false and imaginary.” The governor’s office also said it had sent 42,888 illegal migrants to provinces that have repatriation centers, adding that their deportation process is continuing in those centers.

Turkey sends American ISIS fighter to US after stalemate with Greece
AFP, Istanbul/Friday, 15 November 2019
A suspected US extremist, trapped for days between the Turkish and Greek borders, was sent back to the United States Friday, Turkey’s interior minister said. “The American on the shared border with Greece has just been expelled from Istanbul by plane to the United States,” Suleyman Soylu was quoted as saying by Turkish media. The man, identified as Muhammad Darwis B, a US citizen of Jordanian descent, was captured in Syria on suspicion of ties to ISIS, according to state news agency Anadolu. Turkish authorities say the US had initially refused to accept him, and that he chose deportation to Greece, only for Greek authorities to refuse him entry on Monday. He was trapped in no-man’s land between the borders, next to Turkey’s northeastern province of Edirne, though Turkish border guards gave him food and a car to sleep in at night, according to Anadolu. There was an apparent breakthrough on Thursday, when Turkey said the US “committed to taking him back.”Turkey has criticized Western countries for not taking back captured members of ISIS, and has lately publicized its efforts to deport extremists back to their countries of origin. It follows criticism of Turkey’s offensive last month against Kurdish militants in northern Syria, which Western governments complained would undermine the fight against ISIS. Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said last week that Turkey had nearly 1,200 foreign members of ISIS in custody, and had captured 287 during the offensive in Syria. The Hurriyet newspaper said Wednesday that 959 suspects were being prepared for deportation, with the largest numbers coming from Iraq, Syria and Russia.

Iraq ‘will never be the same’ after protests: top cleric al-Sistani
AFP, KarbalaFriday, 15 November 2019
Iraq will be deeply marked by weeks of demonstrations demanding sweeping reform, its top Shia cleric said on Friday in some of his strongest remarks yet on the protest movement. “If those in power think that they can evade the benefits of real reform by stalling and procrastination, they are delusional,” Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani said in his weekly sermon, read by a representative. “What comes after these protests will not be the same as before, and they should be aware of that.”

Baghdad police fire tear gas, live ammunition, kill two Iraqis: Officials
The Associated Press/Friday, 15 November 2019
Iraqi security and medical officials say two protesters have been killed and at least 25 others wounded in ongoing confrontations with security forces in a central Baghdad square.The officials say the protesters were killed when police fired live ammunition and tear gas at hundreds of protesters who removed concrete barriers and streamed into the Khilani Square, which has been at the center of clashes for the past days. Friday’s deaths brought to three the number of protesters killed in the past 24 hours. At least 320 people have been killed and thousands have been wounded since the unrest began on October 1, when protesters took to the streets in the tens of thousands outraged by widespread corruption, lack of job opportunities and poor basic services despite the country’s oil wealth.

Car bomb kills at least one near protest camp in Baghdad: Authorities
AFP/Saturday, 16 November 2019
At least one person was killed and more than a dozen wounded late Friday when a bomb placed under a vehicle detonated in the protest-hit Iraqi capital Baghdad, security forces said. In a statement distributed to journalists, the security forces said the blast went off near Tahrir Square, which has been occupied for three weeks by demonstrators demanding regime change. Security forces fired live bullets at protesters in Baghdad's Khillani Square on Friday as they sought to push them back to the main camp at Tahrir Square, part of a government tactic to confine the unrest. The mass protests, which began in Baghdad on October 1 and spread through southern Iraq, are an eruption of public anger against a ruling elite seen as enriching itself off the state and serving foreign powers – above all Iran – as many Iraqis languish in poverty without jobs, healthcare or education.(With Reuters)

Two killed, 12 injured after IED goes off in Baghdad: Security sources
Reuters/Saturday, 16 November 2019
An improvised explosive device went off in Baghdad's Tayaran Square, killing two people and injuring 12, Iraqi security sources said late on Friday. It was not immediately clear if the incident was related to anti-government protests going on in the capital's nearby Tahrir Square.

US says ‘irresponsible’ to ask Iraq to prosecute western extremists
AFP/Friday, 15 November 2019
The United States said Thursday it was “irresponsible” for Western nations to ask Iraq to prosecute foreign extremists, in a veiled criticism of France’s refusal to repatriate ISIS members. “The United States thinks that it’s inappropriate to ask Iraq in particular to shoulder the additional burden of foreign fighters, particularly from Europe,” Nathan Sales, the State Department counterterrorism coordinator, said after more than 30 nations met in Washington to discuss the fight against the extremist group. “It would be irresponsible for any country to expect Iraq to solve that problem for them,” he told reporters. The United States has been pressing European nations to bring home and try their citizens who headed to Syria and Iraq to join the ultra-violent movement. The fate of prisoners has become increasingly urgent after President Donald Trump decided to pull troops from northern Syria, allowing an incursion by Turkey against Kurdish guerrillas. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces had led the fight against ISIS and still keeps thousands of the extremists in the guerrillas’ prisons, although US officials say at least dozens have gone missing since Turkey’s incursion.
European nations have little desire to see the return of extremists who could cause mayhem at home, with France asking Iraq to try them. “I think there is candidly a difference of opinion about the best way to solve this problem,” Sales said. “Each country has a responsibility to handle this situation on their own,” he said, adding that a related idea of setting up ad hoc international tribunals would “cost a fortune” and could be ineffective.

Taliban shifted Western hostages as prisoner swap postponed: Sources
Reuters, Kabul/Friday, 15 November 2019
A plan to swap two Western hostages with three Taliban prisoners has been postponed, an Afghan government official told Reuters on Friday, and Taliban sources said the group had moved the Westerners to a “new and safe place.”Afghan president Ashraf Ghani said on Tuesday the government would release a leader of the Taliban’s Haqqani militant faction and two other commanders in exchange for two university professors, American Kevin King and Australian Timothy Weeks. The deal is seen by the Afghan government as a key move in securing direct talks with the Taliban, which has hitherto refused to engage with what it calls an illegitimate “puppet” regime in Kabul. But a diplomat said in Washington on Wednesday the exchange had not taken place. An Afghan government official told Reuters on Friday it had been postponed, without elaborating further, while Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid blamed the United States. “It was a shortcoming from the American side the swap did not happen,” he told Reuters. Three Taliban sources, including a relative of prisoner Anas Haqqani, brother of the leader of the Haqqani network, said the commanders were due to be flown to Qatar to be freed but were returned to the jail in Bagram outside the Afghan capital Kabul. “We spoke to them after they were provided with new clothes and shifted out of Bagram jail,” the relative said, declining further identification due to the sensitivity of the issue. “They told us that they were being taken to the plane and we expected them to land in Doha and when it didn’t happen for several hours, we got suspicious.” The sources said they had heard about the return of the prisoners to Bagram from Taliban prisoners in the jail and members of the Afghan security forces. The move had left the Taliban “astonished and hurt.” said one of the sources, who is familiar with the details of the prisoner exchange. “The deal was we would free them after our prisoners landed in Qatar,” said the third source familiar with the swap. He said the Taliban had immediately shifted King and Weeks “to a new and safe place” on Tuesday after the commanders failed to land in Doha, home to the Taliban’s political leadership. Taliban sources said they had no information why their prisoners had not been flown to Doha, while spokesmen for the Afghan government and the US embassy in Kabul did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The Australian government has said on Tuesday it will not provide a “running commentary” on the effort to release Weeks.The Haqqani network has in recent years carried out large-scale militant attacks on Afghan civilians. It is believed to be based in Pakistan and is part of the Taliban in Afghanistan. King and Weeks were kidnapped in August 2016 from outside the American University of Afghanistan in Kabul where both worked as professors. They appeared in a hostage video a year later looking disheveled and pleading US President Donald Trump for their release.

UN aid chief: Over 11 million Syrians need humanitarian aid
The Associated Press/Friday, 15 November 2019
Over 11 million people across Syria need aid — more than half the country’s estimated population — and the UN and other organizations are reaching an average of 5.6 million people a month, the UN humanitarian chief said Thursday. Mark Lowcock told the Security Council that across northern Syria 4 million people are supported by UN cross-border deliveries including 2.7 million in the northwest, the last major opposition-held area in the country. With the resolution authorizing cross-border aid expiring in December, Lowcock stressed to the council that “there is no alternative to the cross-border operation” and its renewal is “critical.” Last year, Syria’s closest ally Russia abstained on the resolution along with China. Lowcock warned that without a cross-border operation, “we would see an immediate end of aid supporting millions of civilians” which would cause “a rapid increase in hunger and disease.”
“A lot more people would flood across the borders, making an existing crisis even worse in the region,” he said. Lowcock said he remains very concerned about the situation in the northwest, pointing to an increase in airstrikes and ground-based strikes mostly in parts of southern and western Idlib in recent weeks. “In the last two days there have been reports of over 100 airstrikes in Idlib and surrounding areas,” he said. More than half the people in Idlib moved there from other parts of the country, and hundreds of thousands are living in camps and informal shelters near the Turkish border, he said.
“There is little space left to absorb additional displacement,” Lowcock said. “The onset of winter — with the rain, the cold, and the mud it brings — compounds the dire humanitarian situation.”In Kafr Takharim, where civilians were besieged and shelled following protests against the extremist group HTS, “reports indicate that civilians have been killed,” the aid chief said. “More broadly, we are seeing that civilian infrastructure is being dismantled and sold in areas under HTS control, including water and electrical infrastructure, as well as rail lines,” he said.
Lowcock warned that removing infrastructure affects services now, “but will also make any future recovery all the more difficult.”

Syrian President al-Assad says ‘resistance’ will force US troops out
The Associated Press, Damascus/Friday, 15 November 2019
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad says the American presence in Syria will lead to armed “resistance” that will eventually force the US troops to leave. Al-Assad spoke in an interview with Russia24 TV and Rossiya Segodnya news agency that was broadcast on Friday. He says the Americans should remember the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and that “Syria will not be an exception.” He didn’t elaborate. US officials said this week that Washington will leave about 600 troops in Syria to fight the ISIS. Trump’s decision last month to withdraw the bulk of roughly 1,000 American troops from Syria drew bipartisan condemnation. It came after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Trump earlier he intended to carry out an operation to clear the Turkey-Syria border of Syrian Kurdish fighters.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 15-16/2019
The end of globalisation: we are witnessing the start of a new multipolar world order
Mike O'Sullivan/The National/November 15/2019
The cycle of the past 30 years is over. Instead, we are seeing new centres of power emerging in the US, EU and a China-dominated Asia
The period of globalisation that has driven so many trends in world affairs over the last 30 years is coming to an end. So what comes next? The new world order will bring first disorder, then new ideas, then promise. For the small, open economies of the world, from Ireland to Singapore and the UAE, it will be a time to focus on and adjust to risks from beyond their borders, but also an opportunity to launch the next phase of their development.
That our world is changing at a tectonic level is undeniable. This has been demonstrated in recent weeks by multiple protests around the world – from Chile, Hong Kong and Bolivia to Iraq and Lebanon – reinforcing the sense that something seismic is afoot. Many of these protests are centred on issues that are associated with globalisation – climate change, inequality, corruption and poor economic management – but that really have more to do with how individual countries are impacted by a globalised world.
Still, if we examine the components of globalisation – trade, the flow of finance, ideas and people, the way the internet is organised – they are in retreat and, in general, are becoming more regionalised. The elections of Donald Trump in the US and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, as well as Brexit, are just a few examples of the smashing of the old order; they are the detonators, the wrecking balls of a system that has evolved since the fall of communism.
At least two things have put paid to globalisation as we know it. First, organic economic growth worldwide has slowed and as a result, debt has risen and more monetary activity is required to sustain an international expansion. Second, the side effects, or rather the perceived side-effects, of globalisation are more apparent – wealth inequality, the dominance of multinationals and the dispersal of global supply chains have all become live political issues.
One problematic factor here is that there is no central body or authority to marshall globalisation, beyond perhaps the World Economic Forum or the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. In many ways, the end of globalisation is marked by the poor and inconclusive response to the global financial crisis. In general, the response has been to cut the cost of capital and not tackle the root causes of the crisis.
There is also a sense that the cycles of the rise and fall of nations are repeating themselves and that, as over the past 400 years, we are again grappling with basic issues such as the quality of public life, equality and the machinations of democracy.
From the perspective of countries in the Gulf, perhaps two trends are worth focusing on. The first is geopolitics and the evolving world order; the second is the necessary search for better organic economic growth.
From a geopolitical perspective, globalisation is already behind us. We should instead set our minds to the emerging multipolar world. This will be dominated by at least three large regions – the US, EU and China-centric Asia.
They will increasingly take very different approaches to economic policy, liberty, warfare, technology and society. Each region will be distinct in its approach to these fields. Take the internet as an example: the US owns the companies that have built it, Europe will regulate it and China has already erected a cordon sanitaire around its internet space.
When talking about the future of globalisation, commentators focus too much on the US and UK, most likely because their political institutions are currently so unpredictable
The contest between these regions has now begun, with trade and technology the initial battlegrounds. More broadly, Europe is beginning to assert itself as the lead regulator and standard-setter in the environment, new technologies such as data and old industries such as the food and drink trade. The US is still the pre-eminent power militarily but is losing soft power. There is a risk that this could translate into incrementally weaker financial power through lower dollar usage. China is trying to expand its economic influence through overseas investment but is in a race against time against the consequences of its own debt-fuelled economic boom and the limitations of an economy burdened by environment stresses.
More generally, when talking about the future of globalisation, commentators focus too much on the US and UK, most likely because their political institutions are currently so unpredictable. As a result, trends in what the geopolitical commentator Afshin Molavi calls “the other 85 per cent” are often neglected. Here, urbanisation and the productivity gains from social media and telecommunications remain in place but increasingly the emerging world will have to deal with the consequences of inequality, climate change and debt, as recent protests have shown.
Elsewhere, mid-sized countries like Russia, Australia and Japan will struggle to find their place in the world and might increasingly have to align themselves with one region. Australia and Japan, for example, are allies of the US but commercially tied to China.
New coalitions such as the Hanseatic League 2.0 – the new incarnation of the 14th-century assembly of northern European trading powers, this time made up of small, advanced eurozone states - will emerge. Institutions of the 20th century – the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organisation - will appear increasingly defunct. In many cases, they could be replaced by great-power diplomacy. Ideally, they will be replaced by institutions that tackle the problems of the 21st century such as a global climate body with real teeth and a global cyber police force.
While it is increasingly clear that geopolitics will be dominated by those three significant players, there is a question mark over whether India can be a superpower and where the Middle East and North Africa fit in.
One very interesting possibility is that Gulf states increasingly act as a fulcrum to connect India to the Middle East and North Africa and that in time, this large region becomes another centre of power in the multipolar world order. It is a possibility that stresses how many of the new challenges and opportunities that lie ahead of the UAE will involve diplomacy.
Many policymakers have lost sight of the drivers of organic economic growth and will be forced to rediscover them
The second great challenge is economic growth. Since the turn of the 21st century, economic growth worldwide has been running out of steam; only stimulants in the form of very high levels of debt and aggressive central-bank action have kept it going. Globally, debt-to-GDP is now at its highest since the Second World War and the Napoleonic Wars before that. Equally, central-bank buying has pushed a quarter of the world into negative interest rate territory. As this has happened, some governments have increased deficits, with the US now looking like a textbook weak emerging market economy in terms of its large deficit and high debt levels. A recession will test these faultlines.
As a result of low interest rates and central bank support, many policymakers have lost sight of the drivers of organic economic growth and will be forced to rediscover them. These factors include the skill base of the labour market, innovation and technology, intangible infrastructure and the system of laws and institutions that form the backbone of a nation. Countries like Switzerland that tend to have stable growth have durable institutions and invest a great detail in education. Governments will have to innovate if they want to spur growth.
The Gulf states are no exception here. Vision and leadership have made them one of the extraordinary accomplishments in the age of globalisation. As globalisation ebbs and gives way to a more complex, multipolar world, Gulf economies will need to carefully craft the next phase of their development.
In this respect a number of points are worth stressing. The first is that while physical infrastructure has been the driver of the region’s economies, intangible infrastructure (education, laws, human development and the socially responsive use of technology) will drive the next phase of growth and in particular, productivity.
The second relevant point is to think about development broadly, not just in economic terms but in terms of diplomacy, citizenship and environmental sustainability. If carried out correctly, advances in these areas also bring prosperity, or at the very least, make growth less volatile.
Then, there is short to medium-term economic policy. Here, regulation can be an interesting focus. In other economies, periods of growth are usually followed by an increased regulatory burden. In some cases, a period of de-regulation or at least what is now called agile governance can help to stimulate growth. Agile governance is where authorities assess the impact of policy and where necessary, adapt it to changed circumstances. Regulation is one such area. It is also an area that, done strategically, can help lay the groundwork for new industries and growth sectors.
The worst we can do is to assume that globalisation will continue in the way it has done over the last 20 years. Every day we are reminded that the old order is being chipped away and that a new world order is slowly emerging.
Mike O'Sullivan is the author of The Levelling: What's Next After Globalisation and a former chief investment officer for Credit Suisse international wealth management

Israel finds itself in a precarious position as it loses allies in Syria
Sinem Cengiz/Arabic News/November 15/ 2019
Israel is one of the countries that has been deeply concerned about the developments in Syria over the past eight years. Although Tel Aviv has kept a relatively low profile during the war on its doorstep, it could be seriously affected by the consequences of the latest developments, particularly in northeastern Syria.
Recent attacks by Israeli forces in Damascus and the Gaza Strip are very much related to its concerns arising from the Syrian conflict.
The situation in Gaza escalated on Nov. 12 when Israel launched an airstrike that killed Bahaa Abu Al-Ata, the commander of resistance group Islamic Jihad, along with his wife, Asma. Israeli warplanes also launched a strike targeting Islamic Jihad member Akram Al-Ajouri in the Syrian capital, Damascus. Two people, including Al-Ajouri’s son, were killed and 10 injured.
On Nov. 13, Turkey denounced the Israeli attacks on the blockaded Gaza Strip, calling on the country to stop its aggression and end an occupation that has become state policy.
Last week, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu claimed that a group of countries, led by Israel, sought to establish a terrorist state in northern Syria. Israel has been highly critical of Turkey’s anti-terror Operation Peace Spring, which targeted the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). But more importantly, Tel Aviv was frustrated by the decision of the US to withdraw from Syria, leaving Israel in the middle of a war in which a range of powers have an interest. The Israelis interpreted the US withdrawal as a betrayal that could contribute to the unraveling of the region.
Dozens of Israeli military reservists reportedly signed a petition calling on the Israeli government to send not only food, clothing and medicine but also military and intelligence assistance to the Kurdish militias against which Turkey is waging war.
Increased Turkish influence in northeastern Syria would leave Israel unable to operate as freely in this strategic area, near the border with Iran, as it could when it was under Kurdish control. Throughout the Syrian conflict, the Israeli air force has repeatedly attacked Syrian military convoys and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Such attacks would be more difficult without local allies to clear the path for operations.
Although in official state rhetoric Israel says the future of Syria is up to Syrians, in reality the Syrian regime remaining in power is the safest option for Tel Aviv. Israel was particularly concerned about the possibility of radical Islamist or Iranian forces gaining a foothold along the Golan Heights or replacing the regime. However, by August 2018 the Syrian regime had eased these fears by recapturing the area, along Israel’s northern border, thanks to the support of Russian and Iranian forces.
Turkey’s growing influence in Syria is a matter of concern for Israel in view of Ankara’s staunch support for Palestinian rights.
This development did not completely reassure Tel Aviv, however. Turkey’s growing influence in Syria is a matter of concern given that Ankara is a staunch supporter of Palestinian rights.
If Turkish-Israeli relations had not declined so sharply in the past decade, Israel would have fewer worries. Realist politics would suggest that both countries should make an effort to mend their relationship in the face of the Syrian war, but realism is not the only factor that affects decision making. Other factors play a role and this is what we see in Turkish-Israeli relations.
Two decades ago the nations cooperated against Syria, which saved them both from threats emanating from Damascus at the time. The defense and intelligence cooperation that marked the relationship between the two countries in the late 1990s was the result of a specific strategic context. At that time, Turkey was driven closer to Israel out of regional necessity, as the former needed the latter as a bulwark against Syria. Those 1990s defense ties emerged from a domestic political context in Ankara and Tel Aviv.
This domestic context has changed in both countries. The mutual mistrust that has grown during the past decade has become a barrier to any rapprochement. In addition, the geopolitical circumstances that once drove Turkish-Israeli cooperation have changed significantly.
Now that Turkey has cleared out northeastern Syria and established its own controlled area there for refugees, Russia and Iran have increased their sphere of influence, and the US and its Kurdish allies have gradually lost their influence, there is no ally left for Israel to cooperate with against threats that might arise in the future. Thus, Israel finds itself stuck in a precarious position in the Syrian war.
*Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz

Russia embracing former US allies throughout Middle East
Daoud Kuttab/Arabic News/November 15/ 2019
While the attention of many has been correctly pointed to the regional reshuffle in the Middle East following the Trump administration’s greenlight to its NATO ally Turkey, this is much bigger than a Kremlin military win. As the US is largely exiting Syria and Iraq, the region will now most likely have a totally different configuration, with Moscow playing a major role. Two major US allies, Lebanon and Jordan, have been slowly moving into the Russian sphere, and that effort has accelerated due, in large part, to the abandonment of the region by the Trump administration.
When the US withdrew its skeleton staff of ground troops and, more importantly, its powerful air supremacy from northern Syria, Russia quickly filled the power vacuum it left behind. Along with Turkey, Iran and the Assad regime, the Arab “Mashreq” is slowly shifting alliances. Washington’s abrupt decision to withhold money earmarked for the Lebanese army will further support non-state players like Hezbollah and ultimately favor Russia’s new hegemony in the Middle East.
When the Trump White House placed an “indefinite implementation hold” on security assistance to Lebanon without even informing the Department of Defense or State Department, this provided a further opening to the Russians. The aid freeze, including $105 million to support the Lebanese army, will go a long way toward reducing the power of the Lebanese president and government and will undoubtedly strengthen Russia’s regional influence.
Disagreements over offshore gas rights are also playing into this battle for regional influence, with the Russian effort widely noticed on Mediterranean shores. In addition to France’s Total and ENI of Italy, the Russian Novatek is now drilling for oil in the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel, America’s only remaining major ally in the area, lays claim to the same waters with little success. When US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Lebanon in March, he sided with Israel on gas rights and even called on the Lebanese to reconsider their drilling efforts. Both Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and Lebanese President Michel Aoun opposed the American request.
Bilateral trade between Lebanon and Russia today exceeds $500 million a year. The Lebanese are known to import $900 million worth of Russian oil and hydrocarbons and, unlike the Americans, the Russians never asked the president and the prime minister to limit the power or influence of Hezbollah.
While the US influence in Lebanon is slowly deteriorating, Washington has always counted on Jordan as a strong, stable and reliable ally. But even this partnership is being tested and Jordan’s moderate monarch is quietly seeking other regional partnerships for fear of America also abandoning him.
When President Donald Trump held a meeting with heads of state on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in September, it was held at exactly the same time as King Abdullah delivered his speech. The timing might be coincidental, but the fact remains that Trump has shunned King Abdullah during his last two visits to the US. Jordan and the Trump administration differ on the move of the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and the importance of the two-state solution.
Russia has been quietly working with Jordan to remove it from the pro-US camp. Jordan and Russia have agreed that displaced Syrians holed up in the Rukban refugee camp near the Jordanian border should return to government-held territory.
Russia has been quietly working with Jordan to remove it from the pro-US camp. Jordan and Russia have agreed that displaced Syrians holed up in the Rukban refugee camp near the Jordanian border should return to government-held territory. The camp, which at one time hosted more than 41,000 Syrian refugees, now hosts just a couple of thousand. The Rukban camp lies inside the borders of the US military base at Al-Tanf and, as such, is seen by many as part of the American sphere of control. In November 2018, Jordan formally sided with Russia and the Syrian regime with regards to the fate of the camp and its residents. This stance was reiterated during the fifth session of the Russian-Arab Cooperation Forum in Moscow in April.
Tourism from Russia to Jordan has spiked, thanks in part to the Jordan Tourism Board subsidizing Russian tourists visiting the country to the tune of $60 each. Records show that tourist visits from Russia have been on the rise since 2017, with 70,627 visiting Jordan in 2017, compared to 49,384 in 2016. In 2018, about 1,000 Russian tourists arrived in Aqaba every week. Jordanian officials estimate that 12 percent of the country’s economy is dedicated to tourism.
But, while analysts have correctly zoomed in on the changes in the military and economic spheres, Moscow appears to have a much wider plan for the region. Take, for example, what it is doing in the media sphere. Not only is Sputnik, the Russian state-run media giant, producing satellite broadcasts in Arabic, its radio programs can now be heard on local radio thanks to partnership agreements with a local Lebanese radio station, which has a powerful reach throughout Lebanon, Syria and the north of Jordan. Further arrangements with Jordanian and Iraqi radio stations are in the pipeline as the Russian state works hard to cement its newfound military gains. For a fraction of what US broadcasting services are spending on Alhurra TV and Sawa Radio, the Russians are reaching their target audience with the help of local media.
The Trump administration’s withdrawal from northern Syria might have seemed small at the time, but the long-term effect of this move is a seismic shift that will greatly increase Russia’s influence on the entire Middle East region.
*Daoud Kuttab is an award-winning Arab journalist. He is the former Ferris Professor of Journalism at Princeton University and runs Community Media Network in Amman, Jordan. Twitter: @daoudkuttab

International community’s feeble response to Israeli violence
Ramzy Baroud/Arabic News/November 15/ 2019
An Israeli attack on Gaza was clearly imminent, but not because of any provocations by Palestinian groups in the besieged, impoverished Strip. The Israeli military escalation was foreseeable because it factors neatly into Israel’s contentious political scene. The attack was not a question of “if” but rather “when.”
The answer came on Tuesday, when the Israeli military launched a major strike against Gaza, killing Islamic Jihad commander Bahaa Abu Al-Ata, along with his wife Asma.
More strikes followed, targeting what the Israeli military described as Islamic Jihad installations. However, the identities of the victims, along with damning social media footage, pictures, and eyewitness accounts, indicate that civilians and civilian infrastructure were also bombed and destroyed.
As of Thursday, when a truce was announced, 32 Palestinians had been killed and more than 80 wounded in the Israeli aggression.
What truly frustrates any meaningful discussion on the horrific situation in Gaza is the feeble international response, whether by organizations with the sole objective of ensuring world peace or the mainstream Western media, which ceaselessly celebrates its own accuracy and impartiality.
A most disappointing response to the Israeli violence was offered by Nickolay Mladenov, the UN special coordinator for the Middle East peace process.
Mladenov, whose job should have long been deemed pointless considering that no “peace process” actually exists, expressed his “concern” about the “ongoing and serious escalation between Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Israel.”
Not only did Mladenov’s statement create a moral equivalence between an occupying power, which instigated the war in the first place, and a small group of a few hundred armed men, but it is also dishonest.
“The indiscriminate launching of rockets and mortars against population centers is absolutely unacceptable and must stop immediately,” Mladenov elaborated, putting great emphasis on the fact that “there can be no justification for any attacks against civilians.”
Shockingly, Mladenov was referring to Israeli, not Palestinian civilians. At the time that his statement was released to the media, there were already dozens of Palestinian civilians killed or wounded, while Israeli media reports spoke of a few Israelis who had been treated for “anxiety.”
The EU did not fare any better. It parroted the same US knee-jerk response by condemning “the barrage of rocket attacks reaching deep into Israel.”
“The firing of rockets on civilian populations is totally unacceptable and must immediately stop,” a statement by the European bloc read.
Is it possible that Mladenov and top EU foreign policymakers do not truly comprehend the political context of the latest Israeli onslaught — that embattled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is using military escalation as a way of fortifying his weakening grip on power?
Considering this, what is one to make of the generally poor Western media coverage, the inept analyses and the absence of balanced reports?
In a report published by the BBC on Wednesday, the British broadcaster referred to “cross-border violence between Israel and militants in Gaza.”
But Gaza is not an independent country and, as per international law, it is still under Israeli occupation. Israel declared Gaza a “hostile territory” in September 2007, arbitrarily establishing a “border” between it and the besieged Palestinian territory. For some reason, the BBC finds this designation acceptable.
CNN, on the other hand, reported that “Israel’s military campaign against Islamic Jihad” was entering its second day, while emphasizing the UN condemnation of the rocket attacks.
CNN, like most of its American mainstream counterparts, reports on Israeli military campaigns as part and parcel of some imagined “war on terror.” Therefore, analyzing the language of US mainstream media with the purpose of underlining and emphasizing its failures and biases is a useless exercise.
Sadly, US bias regarding Palestine has also extended to the mainstream media in the European countries that were once, to some degree, fairer, if not exactly sympathetic, toward the Palestinians’ situation.
El Mundo of Spain, for example, mentioned a number of Palestinians — making sure to emphasize that they were “mostly militants” — who “died” as opposed to being “killed” by the Israeli military.
“The escalation followed the death of Gaza’s armed branch leader,” El Mundo reported, failing once more to pinpoint the culprits in these seemingly mysterious deaths.
La Repubblica, which is perceived in Italy as a “leftist” outlet, sounded more like a rightwing Israeli newspaper in its description of the events that led to the deaths of many Palestinians. The Italian newspaper used a fabricated timeline that only exists in the mind of the Israeli military and decision-makers.
“Several rockets were launched toward Israel by Gaza’s Islamic Jihad, breaking the brief nightly truce, according to (rightwing Israeli newspaper) The Jerusalem Post and to the Israeli army,” it reported.
It is obvious that the West’s ‘newspapers of record’ have maintained their blind spot on fairly reporting on Gaza.
It remains unclear what “truce” La Repubblica was referring to.
France’s Le Monde followed suit, using the same deceptive and cliched Israeli lines. Interestingly, the deaths of many Palestinians in Gaza did not deserve a place on the French newspaper’s homepage. Instead, it chose to highlight a comparatively irrelevant news item, in which Israel denounced the labeling of illegal settlement products as “discriminatory.”
Maybe one could have excused these across-the-board journalistic and moral failings if it were not for the fact that the Gaza story has been one of the most-covered news topics anywhere in the world for more than a decade.
It is obvious that the West’s “newspapers of record” have maintained their blind spot on fairly reporting on Gaza. They have kept the truth from their readers for many years, most likely so as not to offend the sensibilities of the Israeli government and its powerful allies and lobbies.
While one cannot help but bemoan the decline of good journalism in the West, it is also important to acknowledge with much appreciation the courage and sacrifices made by Gaza’s young journalists and bloggers who, at times, are targeted and killed by the Israeli army for conveying the truth about the plight of the besieged but tenacious Strip.
*Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and editor of Palestine Chronicle. His latest book is “The Last Earth: A Palestinian Story” (Pluto Press, London). Baroud has a Ph.D. in Palestine studies from the University of Exeter. Twitter: @RamzyBaroudpoint-of-view

Russia embracing former US allies throughout Middle East
Daoud Kuttab/Arabic News/November 15/ 2019
While the attention of many has been correctly pointed to the regional reshuffle in the Middle East following the Trump administration’s greenlight to its NATO ally Turkey, this is much bigger than a Kremlin military win. As the US is largely exiting Syria and Iraq, the region will now most likely have a totally different configuration, with Moscow playing a major role. Two major US allies, Lebanon and Jordan, have been slowly moving into the Russian sphere, and that effort has accelerated due, in large part, to the abandonment of the region by the Trump administration.
When the US withdrew its skeleton staff of ground troops and, more importantly, its powerful air supremacy from northern Syria, Russia quickly filled the power vacuum it left behind. Along with Turkey, Iran and the Assad regime, the Arab “Mashreq” is slowly shifting alliances. Washington’s abrupt decision to withhold money earmarked for the Lebanese army will further support non-state players like Hezbollah and ultimately favor Russia’s new hegemony in the Middle East.
When the Trump White House placed an “indefinite implementation hold” on security assistance to Lebanon without even informing the Department of Defense or State Department, this provided a further opening to the Russians. The aid freeze, including $105 million to support the Lebanese army, will go a long way toward reducing the power of the Lebanese president and government and will undoubtedly strengthen Russia’s regional influence.
Disagreements over offshore gas rights are also playing into this battle for regional influence, with the Russian effort widely noticed on Mediterranean shores. In addition to France’s Total and ENI of Italy, the Russian Novatek is now drilling for oil in the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel, America’s only remaining major ally in the area, lays claim to the same waters with little success. When US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Lebanon in March, he sided with Israel on gas rights and even called on the Lebanese to reconsider their drilling efforts. Both Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and Lebanese President Michel Aoun opposed the American request.
Bilateral trade between Lebanon and Russia today exceeds $500 million a year. The Lebanese are known to import $900 million worth of Russian oil and hydrocarbons and, unlike the Americans, the Russians never asked the president and the prime minister to limit the power or influence of Hezbollah.
While the US influence in Lebanon is slowly deteriorating, Washington has always counted on Jordan as a strong, stable and reliable ally. But even this partnership is being tested and Jordan’s moderate monarch is quietly seeking other regional partnerships for fear of America also abandoning him.
When President Donald Trump held a meeting with heads of state on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in September, it was held at exactly the same time as King Abdullah delivered his speech. The timing might be coincidental, but the fact remains that Trump has shunned King Abdullah during his last two visits to the US. Jordan and the Trump administration differ on the move of the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and the importance of the two-state solution.
Russia has been quietly working with Jordan to remove it from the pro-US camp. Jordan and Russia have agreed that displaced Syrians holed up in the Rukban refugee camp near the Jordanian border should return to government-held territory.
Russia has been quietly working with Jordan to remove it from the pro-US camp. Jordan and Russia have agreed that displaced Syrians holed up in the Rukban refugee camp near the Jordanian border should return to government-held territory. The camp, which at one time hosted more than 41,000 Syrian refugees, now hosts just a couple of thousand. The Rukban camp lies inside the borders of the US military base at Al-Tanf and, as such, is seen by many as part of the American sphere of control. In November 2018, Jordan formally sided with Russia and the Syrian regime with regards to the fate of the camp and its residents. This stance was reiterated during the fifth session of the Russian-Arab Cooperation Forum in Moscow in April.
Tourism from Russia to Jordan has spiked, thanks in part to the Jordan Tourism Board subsidizing Russian tourists visiting the country to the tune of $60 each. Records show that tourist visits from Russia have been on the rise since 2017, with 70,627 visiting Jordan in 2017, compared to 49,384 in 2016. In 2018, about 1,000 Russian tourists arrived in Aqaba every week. Jordanian officials estimate that 12 percent of the country’s economy is dedicated to tourism.
But, while analysts have correctly zoomed in on the changes in the military and economic spheres, Moscow appears to have a much wider plan for the region. Take, for example, what it is doing in the media sphere. Not only is Sputnik, the Russian state-run media giant, producing satellite broadcasts in Arabic, its radio programs can now be heard on local radio thanks to partnership agreements with a local Lebanese radio station, which has a powerful reach throughout Lebanon, Syria and the north of Jordan. Further arrangements with Jordanian and Iraqi radio stations are in the pipeline as the Russian state works hard to cement its newfound military gains. For a fraction of what US broadcasting services are spending on Alhurra TV and Sawa Radio, the Russians are reaching their target audience with the help of local media.
The Trump administration’s withdrawal from northern Syria might have seemed small at the time, but the long-term effect of this move is a seismic shift that will greatly increase Russia’s influence on the entire Middle East region.
*Daoud Kuttab is an award-winning Arab journalist. He is the former Ferris Professor of Journalism at Princeton University and runs Community Media Network in Amman, Jordan. Twitter: @daoudkuttab

The moral blunder in the Balkans
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Arabic News/November 15/ 2019
The French ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina was summoned by Sarajevo last week over President Emmanuel Macron’s remarks in an interview with The Economist in which he sought to justify blocking further EU accession talks with Balkan countries over concerns about Bosnian militants returning from Syria — a situation he described as a “time bomb.”
First, there is just no getting away from the fact that this was a bad argument to make. According to Bosnian intelligence, 250 adults and 80 children left Bosnia or the Bosnian diaspora to join Daesh in the Middle East. Of those about 50 have returned to Bosnia, where the overwhelming majority were quickly imprisoned. Almost 90 are thought to have died in the Middle East and about 150 remain in Syria, mostly in detention. The rest returned to countries where they lived before. So there are at most 150 Bosnian individuals who might wish to return to Bosnia and who can expect to be jailed when they do so.
Meanwhile, France is expecting at least 130 returning militants in the immediate aftermath of the US pullout from northern Syria, although there will be many others still left in the Middle East in other areas or in detention camps. Compared with Bosnia’s 250-330 citizens who traveled to join Daesh, France had 1,700 people doing the same. There are only about three times as many Muslims in France as there are in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Yet French citizens who went to join Daesh were six times as numerous as Bosnians who did the same. In other words, French Muslims were about twice as likely to go to the Levant and join Daesh than Bosnian Muslims. So if we are concerned with militancy, Macron should probably start at home.
But this is not about militancy. This was an extremely poor attempt at deflection. France has vetoed further European integration in the Balkans and has been especially hostile to Muslim groups in the area at least going back to the early 1990s. Back then, President Francois Mitterrand had an explicitly anti-Muslim approach to the Yugoslav wars. Now that would be recognized as racism. So instead of simply acknowledging anti-Muslim bias, these days we couch it into “concerns about Islamism” and “time bombs” and such.
It is baffling why Macron went the plain racist route while trying to justify his country’s position.
This is not to say that Bosnia and Herzegovina, or indeed North Macedonia and Albania, which Macron has also blocked with no further explanation, are ready to join the EU. Given the recent experience with Poland, Hungary and quite a few other countries that have joined the EU since 2004, the EU should be weary about over-eager enlargement. It is all very well when the incumbent government of an Eastern European country looks pro-EU in the run-up to accession, but unless the entire political establishment of that country buys into the European project, you will have problems with nationalist populists down the road, which will then have veto powers in the European Council and hobble the project’s effectiveness and scope.
When such good reasons to be careful are available, it is baffling why Macron went the plain racist route while trying to justify his country’s position, especially given that this is off-brand not only for him personally, but also for his liberal, centrist political party, for the moral constitutional basis of the French republic, and for the moral institutional basis of the EU. This was a blunder.
*Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is a director at the Center for Global Policy and author of “The Rohingyas: Inside Myanmar’s Genocide” (Hurst, 2017). Twitter: @AzeemIbrahim

Erdoğan’s Undeserving and Underwhelming Visit to DC
David J. Kramer/The American Interest/November 15/2019
Trump’s ongoing bromance with Turkey’s authoritarian leader notwithstanding, Congress and the Administration must act to make clear that the United States isn’t giving Erdoğan a blank check to act in the Middle East.
Foreign leaders have long coveted invitations to Washington to meet with the President in the White House. Such encounters should be hard to come by, but President Trump has thrown open the Oval Office doors to a number of undeserving foreign officials, including Egypt’s authoritarian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Hungary’s self-declared illiberal Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who met with Trump Wednesday, is the latest on that list. For Trump, the meeting with his Turkish counterpart was a welcome distraction from the impeachment hearings playing out on Capitol Hill. Aside from demonstrating the already well-established warm chemistry between the two leaders, however, the meeting produced no major breakthroughs on a range of contentious issues in the U.S.-Turkish relationship.
That didn’t stop Trump from gushing during a joint news conference at the White House that he is “a big fan” and “very big friend” of Erdoğan. In his typical hyperbolic fashion, Trump declared Turkey to be a “great NATO ally and a strategic partner of the United States around the world,” and described their talks as “wonderful and productive.”
The attitude on Capitol Hill toward Erdoğan’s visit has been very different. A bipartisan group in the House had urged Trump to rescind the invitation to his Turkish counterpart. Even Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said, “I share my colleagues’ uneasiness at seeing President Erdoğan honored at the White House,” a stinging rebuke by McConnell’s standards. Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY), Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, blasted Trump for letting Turkey “off the hook for invading Syria, causing a mass exodus of Kurds, and purchasing the S-400 missile system from Russia.”
The animosity toward Erdoğan in Congress has been building for a while. Last month, the House passed a resolution with only a handful of dissenting votes labelling the mass killings of some 1.5 million Armenians a century ago by the Ottoman Empire an act of genocide.
The House has also passed a bill threatening sanctions on Turkey for its recent brutal military incursion into northern Syria—which Erdoğan launched after Trump ordered U.S. troops out of the region. Erdoğan’s forces have killed Kurdish civilians, displaced more than 100,000 from their homes, and, according to an internal State Department assessment on the ground, engaged in “war crimes and ethnic cleansing.” With the Erdoğan visit over, McConnell, who had been blocking similar legislation in the Senate, should allow a vote to proceed.
During yesterday’s meeting with Erdoğan, Trump boasted that a ceasefire negotiated last month by Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo with Erdoğan was holding. That claim was immediately disputed by Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who wrote in a Twitter post that Turkish forces attacked the Syrian town of Tal Tamar, causing “massive displacement of the residents, in clear violation of the cease-fire agreement.” Syrian Kurdish forces have been America’s most reliable allies in the region in the fight against ISIS.
Erdoğan’s reliance on proxies, largely an undisciplined bunch of repurposed jihadists, is guaranteed to continue generating mayhem, human rights abuses and war crimes, and new recruits for ISIS. Equally disturbing are recent reports that the late ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had traveled to Turkey just before the U.S. operation that killed him amid speculation that he may have been trying to relocate his family to Turkey.
If true, these developments raise questions about the competency and reliability of Turkish intelligence agencies—recalling concerns about Pakistan and Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad. Erdoğan’s recent announcement that Turkish forces had captured al-Baghdadi’s wife, sister, and brother-in-law only serves to deepen suspicions about what Turkish intelligence knew about al-Baghdadi and when they knew it. Erdoğan is clearly aware of this vulnerability, and it no doubt explains his announcement that several of al-Baghdadi’s relatives had been detained in Turkey. These steps were undoubtedly taken to inoculate the Turkish President against possible reproaches in the United States for the lassitude with which Turkey has dealt with ISIS over the years. Yet the fact that these arrests only took place after al-Baghdadi’s elimination by U.S. special forces only underlines the concerns about Turkey’s policy of turning a blind eye to the jihadists in its midst.
Moreover, Turkey’s increasing cooperation in Syria with Russian forces highlights growing doubts about its status as a NATO ally—Turkey has the second largest military in the Alliance—and reinforces the case for moving ahead with sanctions on Turkey for its acquisition of S-400 missiles from Rosoboronexport, a Russian entity sanctioned by the United States.
Although NATO is purportedly an alliance of democracies, Turkey is trending toward authoritarian one-man rule. Erdoğan holds the dubious distinction of jailing more journalists than any other leader in the world. More than 100,000 public servants have been swept up in a purge following the coup attempt in 2016, and Turkish security forces stand accused of torturing alleged coup supporters.
In light of all this, how could Trump possibly host Erdoğan? John Bolton, Trump’s former National Security Advisor, has suggested Trump’s personal and financial interests might have played a role. In a private speech to a Morgan Stanley gathering in Miami last week, as reported by NBC News, people present said Bolton “believes there is a personal or business relationship dictating Trump’s position on Turkey because none of his advisers are aligned with him on the issue.”
This theory was reinforced by a recent report in the New York Times, which examined the connections between the two leaders’ sons-in-law—Jared Kushner, son-in-law and senior adviser to Trump, and Berat Albayrak, Erdoğan’s son-in-law and Finance Minister in Turkey. It is worth noting that the Trump Organization has a property in Istanbul.
The involvement of Trump’s personal attorney in Turkey may shed additional light on Trump’s readiness to bend over backward to accommodate Erdoğan. Rudy Giuliani represented Turkish-Iranian dual national, Reza Zarrab, who later pled guilty to running a massive scheme to evade Iran sanctions, in the process corrupting several Turkish government ministers and Erdoğan’s family, according to his courtroom testimony.
Giuliani attempted to engineer a swap of Zarrab for Pastor Andrew Brunson—a perfectly innocent Protestant Evangelical who had lived peacefully in Turkey for 20 years and whose only crime was preaching the gospel. Officials at the State and Justice Departments wisely blocked such an exchange; Brunson was eventually released last October.
Giuliani has pressed the Trump Administration to extradite controversial Turkish cleric Fethullah Gülen, whom Erdoğan accuses of orchestrating the 2016 coup attempt, despite the fact that Turkish authorities have persistently failed to provide the Justice Department with credible evidence of his involvement. Erdoğan noted at the joint press conference that he was carrying “new evidence” that he hoped would persuade U.S. authorities to finally agree to return Gülen to Turkey. This is not the first time that Turkish delegations have come carrying purported evidence that will convince the United States to render the cleric to Turkish authorities. Given the reliance of Turkish courts on documents of dubious provenance, this “new evidence” hopefully will be turned over to the Justice Department to be handled in appropriate channels. This is all the more important since Giuliani’s role in Turkey, much as in Ukraine, is testimony to the President’s tendency to de-institutionalize U.S. foreign relations and utilize family members or cronies to create dubious diplomatic back channels subject to improper influence.
Giuliani’s role also makes him an enabler of Erdoğan’s efforts to export his contempt for rule of law from Turkey to the United States. Recall past Erdoğan trips to Washington during which his bodyguards attacked American citizens peacefully protesting his visits. Amid a heavy DC police presence Wednesday, and absent the thuggishness shown in the past by Erdoğan security forces, protests against the Turkish leader’s visit remained largely peaceful.
Despite efforts by Trump and Erdoğan to paper over the deep differences on Syria, the S-400 purchase, the F-35 fighter jet, and the continued detention of U.S. Embassy and consulate local employees, no one should be taken in by this charade. Congress especially, including the five Republican Senators whom Trump invited, awkwardly, to join for part of the Erdoğan meeting (among them some who have been very critical of the Turkish leader), should not be swayed by the ongoing authoritarian bromance between the two leaders.
So what should be done? First, Congress, as a co-equal branch of government in the conduct of foreign policy, should continue to demand an immediate end to violence and attacks against the Kurds by Turkey’s proxies as well as Turkish forces in northeastern Syria.
Second, the Administration should impose carefully targeted sanctions, as mandated by law, for Erdoğan’s acquisition of Russian military capabilities, which are incompatible with NATO. These sanctions should target those involved in prohibited transactions with Russia and Erdoğan’s cronies and family who profit from them, but not the Turkish economy as a whole. Erdoğan will try to spin them as anti-Turkish, but Congress should strive to make sure that they are clearly aimed at the Erdoğan regime. Turkey remains a pivotal state and a NATO ally, and the United States must be prepared to play a long game and lay the groundwork now for relations with a post-Erdoğan Turkey.
Third, the United States should coordinate with NATO allies to make clear that, while it values Turkey’s contributions to the Alliance, Turkey does not have a free pass to engage in reckless behavior.
Finally, while Washington and European capitals should express appreciation for (and provide additional resources to cope with) the burden Turkey has borne for taking in several million refugees from Syria, it should make clear that threatening a mass release of refugees into Europe or forcible resettlement of refugees in the so-called Syrian “safe-zone” will trigger further sanctions.
Turkey has been and should continue to be a vital member of NATO, but Erdoğan has responsibilities to live up to as well. Those include respecting human rights, not consorting with Putin, and not committing ethnic cleansing and war crimes against the Kurds. Unless and until he does these things, Erdoğan should not set foot inside the Oval Office again.
**Eric Edelman is a former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and a senior advisor to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Turkey project. David J. Kramer, Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor in the George W. Bush Administration, is senior fellow in the Václav Havel Center for Human Rights and Diplomacy, director of European and Eurasian Studies at Florida International University’s Steven J. Green School of International & Public Affairs, and a TAI contributing editor.
Read in The American Interest

Old Tricks and the Iraqi Genie
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/November 15/2019
Although it is too early to speculate about the outcome for the Iraqi uprising, one fact is clear: What we witness is the result of a multiple misunderstandings, by participants in the current drama and those who watch from the sidelines.
There are, first, those who see Iraq as a secular version of the “original sin”. To them toppling Saddam Hussein was the starting point of a journey that could only lead to hell.
They claim since force cannot impose democracy, it was wrong for the US to invade Iraq and dislodge Saddam Hussein. They ignore the fact that though force cannot impose democracy, impediments to democracy can, and have been, removed by force.
Then there are those who believe that though Saddam is gone, Saddamism remains a dominant feature in Iraqi life. The talk in Baghdad cafes these days is of the danger of the emergence of a new Saddam.
Those who hold that view ignore the fact that a majority of Iraqis have moved beyond the Saddam era and are no longer haunted by the nightmare it represented. Two-thirds of today’s Iraqis were not even born in 1963 when the Baathists seized power. Nearly half were children in 2003 when Saddam ended in a hole in Tikrit.
Talking to Baghdad officials and pundits one is surprised to hear the usual conspiracy theories according to which hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have been motivated to risk their lives- with more than 300 killed in the past four weeks- to avenge a ruthless dictator consigned to oblivion.
Those officials who try to avoid conspiracy theories believe that the uprising is prompted by lack of public services, poor economic performance and widespread corruption. Although those factors do count, there is little doubt that the revolt has other, possibly deeper, roots. Today Iraq has better public services than a decade ago when even Baghdad and Basra had to cope with blackouts and shortages of water. The Iraqi economy is performing better, more robust than that of Iran. The average Iraqi is materially better off than five years ago.
Therefore, the pseudo-Marxian interpretation based on class struggle theories and economic factors may well be misleading.
The ruling elite consists mostly of former exiles, people who had spent decades outside Iraq and who still keep families in Iran, Europe, the Arab countries or the United States. Many have double nationality, although some have given up their foreign passports. This does not mean that they love Iraq less than anyone else. However, the fact remains that, having a different trajectory, they do not quite appreciate what the mass of Iraqis, especially the younger generation, feel about Iraq and its destiny.
The mass of Iraqis today are not only younger than their ruling elite but, in some cases, also better educated and more technologically savvy. The generation of i-Phone and tablet has also had access to a wider choice of television, radio and printed press that Iraqis could have even dreamt of with Saddam’s iron control over media.
Iraqi officials wonder how so many Iraqis, including many statistically classed illiterates, manage to send and receive text messages on their Samsungs or i-Phones. Those officials do not realize that even the poorest peasant is now able to pick up the rudiments of the alphabet and a vocabulary of a few hundred to express his anger and passions and to coordinate action with those who share his concerns.
The senior Finance Ministry official in Baghdad who jokes about “just any tribesman” now having an opinion “about everything under the sun”, does not realize that the joke is on him.
There is also misunderstanding from the outside.
In Tehran where mullahs are shaken by the intensity of the uprising the misunderstanding is woven around the claim that this is mainly the work of Iraq’s Arab Sunni minority, seeking revenge against the Shiite majority that now dominates the government.
The Tehran daily Kayhan, reputed to reflect the views of “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei, echoed that misunderstanding in an editorial Monday. It claimed that only 15 percent of participants in the uprising were Shiites. Even then, it claimed that the majority of those Shiites were followers of the self-styled Grand Ayatollah Mahmud Hassani al-Sakhri, the Mawlawi and Yamani factions, and the Shirazi movement now based in London.
The paper gives a list of mainly Sunni-inhabited districts of Baghdad as principal sources of the crowds that shook the capital. The report reads like an account given by agents of the intelligence section of Gen. Qassem Soleimani’s Quds Corps who finds it hard to explain how his claimed “fatah al-fotuh” (victory of victories) in Iraq risks turning into the Khomeinist movement’s biggest defeat so far.
It is hard for Tehran leaders who claim to be spearheading a universal Shiite revival destined to conquer the world and turn the White House in Washington into a Husaynieh, to admit that their consulates and cultural offices are set on fire and their flags burned by fellow-Shiites.
The next misunderstanding comes from US officials who believe the uprising is the fruit of a power struggle within the ruling elite and that things could be brought under control with a redistribution of cards through fresh general elections.
What these officials ignore is that the uprising is against all segments of the ruling elite and their foreign sponsors, notably Iran. To a lesser extent, the average Iraqi is also resentful of continued American presence though it is now at the lowest in 15 years. A rejection of foreign intervention is also against Turkey that, without making the song-dance that Soleimani makes about his “victories”, has secured 11 military bases on Iraqi soil.
These days Baghdad is a favored destination for all sorts of experts, including some, often from the United States, who still see Iraq as patchwork of tribes that could be browbeaten or bought.
In his heyday as Commander in Iraq, US Gen. David Petraeus had a price list for Iraqi tribes. However, those days are gone and the new generation of Iraqis’ attachment to tribal origins is more sentimental than real.
Tehran is wrong in toying with the idea of ending the uprising with a bloodbath as in Syria. Washington is wrong to think that yet another election with the same rules and same cast of characters would do the trick. The Najaf mullahs are wrong to believe that Iraqis will obey their fatwas as they did a generation ago. Tribal chiefs are mistaken in thinking the big “Sheikh” could secure a big cheque in exchange for calming down his kith-and-kin.
These multiple misunderstandings may delay Iraq’s entry into a new phase in its modern history, hopefully as a people-based nation-state. But, the fact remains that old tricks will not push that genie back into the bottle.

France: An "Inverted Colonization"
Guy Millière/ Gatestone Institute/November 15/2019
Soon after, Muslim organizations that had asked for students to have the right to wear the veil in schools also asked for a change in the school curriculum -- in history, so that Muslim civilization would be presented in a more "correct" and "positive" way.
"If the way I dress disturbs you, leave my country". — Signs at a demonstration, October 27, 2019.
"Any criticism of Islam is now blasphemy." — Ivan Rioufol, columnist, Le Figaro, November 4, 2019.
Details lead one to see that the anti-Christian acts were mostly acts of church vandalism, the anti-Semitic acts were very often violent attacks against Jews or cemetery desecrations, and that the anti-Muslim acts were almost only anti-Muslim graffiti or the laying of slices of bacon the entrance to a mosque or in the mailbox of a Muslim organization. No Muslims were physically attacked.
"We are not in a project of assimilation." — Yassine Belattar, former advisor to French President Emmanuel Macron, October 27, 2019.
Éric Zemmour has suggested that France is threatened not by a risk of "partition", but by an inverted "colonization".
On October 12, 2019, a meeting of the Regional Council of Bourgogne-Franche-Comté was held in Dijon, a quiet town in central France. A woman wearing a long black veil was in the audience, apparently accompanying a group of students. All at once, the head of the National Rally party group at the Regional Council, Julien Odoul, rose and said that the presence of a woman wearing an Islamic headscarf in a public building was incompatible with the values ​​of the French Republic:
"We are in a public building, we are in a democratic enclosure. Madame has all the time to keep her veil at home, in the street, but not here, not today. It's the Republic, it's secularism. It's the law of the Republic, no ostentatious signs."
He was neither threatening nor violent, yet his words immediately upset others in the room. A boy, apparently the son of the veiled woman, rushed crying into her arms. She then left the room slowly, accompanied by other children.
The event was immediately highlighted in newspapers and television throughout France. Odoul was described as a provocateur and a "despicable Islamophobic racist". The leaders of French political parties asked Marine Le Pen, president of the National Rally party, to apologize and to expel Odoul from the party. She replied that Odoul had been "clumsy" and "should have remained silent". She did not, however, expel him from the party.
A petition, "How far will we let hatred towards Muslims go?", in the newspaper Le Monde, described France as "a country where Muslims are stigmatized" as "victims of racism", "segregation" and "ostracism". Without mentioning a recent terrorist attack at Paris police headquarters where four police employees were murdered by a colleague, Mickaël Harpon, a convert to Islam, the text denounced the decision of some public agencies to "monitor the signs of radicalization among their Muslim employees".
The petition also did not mention that it was this attack that prompted public institutions to establish preventive measures. The petition was signed by 90 Muslim writers, actors and university professors, as well as a few non-Muslim intellectuals. Since then, more than 230,000 people have signed it.
A few days later, another petition, signed by a hundred Muslims, was published in the weekly Marianne. The entry was entitled, "The veil is sexist and obscurantist". The entire text was about the Islamic headscarf:
"Wearing a veil is an ostentatious sign of a retrograde, obscurantist and sexist understanding of the Qur'an. Veiling women exists to stigmatize their presence in the public space".
Since then, debates on the Islamic veil in France have proceeded non-stop.
From the US or the UK, such discussions might look strange, but France is a country where belonging to a religion has long been considered a private affair that absolutely must not invade the public sphere.
Additionally, the widespread appearance of the Islamic hijab in France is relatively recent. It has quickly become much more than the sign of a religion. Many now regard the veil as a banner of radical Islam, and as the symbol of an organized attempt profoundly to transform the society of France.
Attempts to bring the hijab into French schools and high schools on a large scale began in 1989. Soon after, Muslim organizations that had asked for students to have the right to wear the veil in schools also asked for a change in the school curriculum -- in history, so that Muslim civilization would be presented in a more "correct" and "positive" way.
A few years after that, teachers began reporting to the Ministry of National Education that it was now impossible to talk about the Holocaust in class without being interrupted by Muslim students' statements that were negative and anti-Semitic. The Ministry of National Education obligingly modified history programs; Muslim civilization is now described in French textbooks as having brought much to the world and to Europe. Any reference to the continuing practice of slavery in the Muslim world, or massacres committed by Muslim warriors, was withdrawn.
At the same time, as the Ministry of National Education remained deaf to what professors were reporting, several of them decided to write a book, Les Territoires perdus de la République ("The Lost Territories of the Republic"), published in 2002, under the direction of the historian Georges Bensoussan.
The book may have prompted Luc Ferry, Minister of National Education at the time, to ask an academic, Jean-Pierre Obin, to launch an investigation and write a report, which was delivered in September 2004. It emphasized that the situation was extremely serious; that history teachers could not talk about the Holocaust in the presence of Muslim students; nor could they talk about Israel or the Crusades. Furthermore, as the theory of evolution did not conform to the Koran, biology teachers, could not speak about evolution. Wherever Jewish students were in contact with Muslim students, the report continued, they were harassed, and when a serious incident took place, school officials did not punish the aggressors but instead advised Jewish parents to enroll their children somewhere else. Muslim girls, the report pointed out, did not wear a headscarf inside school, but an increasing number were not only wearing it as soon as they were outside the school grounds, but also harassing Muslim girls who did not wear one. The mainstream media immediately said that the report was "Islamophobic". The report had no effect.
Meanwhile, the suburbs of large cities where Muslim communities were growing became neighborhoods where girls and women who did not wear the veil were insulted, assaulted, sometimes raped or even subjected to gang rapes in cellars. In Vitry, near Paris, in October 2002, an unveiled Muslim young woman, Sohane Benziane, 17, was burned alive. In Marseille, another unveiled Muslim woman, Ghofrane Haddaoui, 23, was stoned to death. When non-Muslim families, who did not want to submit to the law of gangs and Islamists, gradually left, the neighborhoods became places where every woman knew that to go out unveiled was dangerous.
To many, the veil became a sign of oppression against women, and associated with areas that were becoming no-go zones -- zones urbaines sensibles ("sensitive urban zones"). In 2006, there were 751 of these in the country, where non-Muslims were generally excluded, apart from exceptional circumstances.
In these no-go zones, in the autumn of 2005, riots broke out. The French government was confronted with a situation beyond its control, and had to rely on Muslim organizations and imams to restore the calm. No-go zones had become autonomous Muslim areas on French territory.
In the years that followed, the Muslim population grew larger and Muslim organizations gained even more importance, especially the French branch of the Muslim Brotherhood -- then called the UOIF (Union of Islamic Organizations of France), which is now called Muslims of France. Popular preachers, such as Hassan Iquioussen or Tariq Ramadan (since 2018, indicted for several rapes), said in the mosques that the hijab is an "Islamic obligation" stemming from the need for women to be "modest". These preachers added that forcing Muslim women not to wear a veil in public spaces was a way to "force them to stay at home". They accused whoever opposed the veil of wanting to "exclude" Muslim women from society. Muslim women belonging to those organizations began to repeat these views.
By now, the Islamization of France has gained considerable ground. Veiled women can be seen everywhere. Other women know that if they wear a dress or a skirt that might be seen as immodest, they run a risk. Zineb El Razhoui, a journalist who used to write for the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, has said that all French women, including non-Muslim women, are now threatened. She went on to document the explosion of the number of sexual assaults in France: 235,000 complaints for rape or attempted rape were filed in 2018 -- 62,000 more than in 2016. In 2005, 9,993 complaints of rape or attempted rape were filed, a figure at the time considered alarming.
The result is that El Razhoui has received thousands of death threats, in both Arabic and French.
Georges Bensoussan, in his book Une France soumise ("A Submitted France"), published 15 years after The Lost Territories of the Republic, noted what is happening to all French women: a widespread fear of going out alone, especially in the evening.
In debates on television, veiled Muslim women invited to speak say that wearing a veil is their "choice" and that the French must "adapt to Islam".
On October 27, a demonstration against "Islamophobia" in Paris gathered hundreds of veiled women. They held signs saying, "If the way I dress disturbs you, leave my country" and "Stop the persecution of Muslims". One of the organizers interviewed on television said:
"Muslims in France are suffering under growing persecution. They want to forbid us to be Muslims. France is our country. Those who do not like it must go elsewhere. "
On October 30, French President Emmanuel Macron claimed to react and gave an interview to the weekly Valeurs Actuelles. "I fight with all my strength against sectarianism", he said, but immediately added, "I do not want to fall into a trap and I will never say: sectarianism equals Islam".
A columnist, Ivan Rioufol, wrote in the daily Le Figaro that everyone knows the only sectarianism in France today is Islamic sectarianism and that those remarks were laughable. He also wrote, "The mechanism of intimidation is triggered .... Any criticism of Islam is now blasphemy."
Macron is not the only person who avoids using the word "Islam". All debate on the topic has disappeared from newspapers and television stations in France. Virtually all French journalists, when they speak of the no-go zones, use only the official term: "sensitive urban areas".
The journalists note signs of "radicalization" among young people in the suburbs, but do not dare to say what kind of "radicalization". When a knife attack is committed by a Muslim (knife attacks against passers-by are now frequent in France), the assailant is described as having committed an "inexplicable" act or as suffering from a mental disorder. Although the convert to Islam who murdered four police employees at the Paris police headquarters was originally described as having committed a "terrorist act", a few days ago, the French Ministry of Justice said that a thorough examination of the facts had led the judges to conclude that what had happened was merely a "professional dispute" with no terrorist motive.
On October 31, the French Ministry of the Interior said that 33 policemen had been reported to their superiors as having been "radicalized", yet they were not removed from the police force. When Alexandre Langlois, Secretary General of the Vigi Police Union, stated in June that the number of "radicalized" policemen in France is actually far larger, he received a year's suspension.
It would be misleading to say that Muslims are persecuted in France. An official report on the figures of anti-religious acts in France in 2018 noted that more than a thousand anti-Christian acts had been committed; 541 anti-Semitic acts (64% more than in 2017), and 100 anti-Muslim acts. Details lead one to see that the anti-Christian acts were mostly acts of church vandalism; the anti-Semitic acts often consisted of cemetery desecrations and violent attacks against Jews, and that the anti-Muslim acts involved almost only anti-Muslim graffiti or laying slices of bacon at the entrance to a mosque or in the mailbox of a Muslim organization. No Muslims were physically attacked.
As Jews represent less than one percent of France' population, the number of attacks against Jews is alarming. Sammy Ghozlan, president of National Office of Vigilance Against Anti-Semitism (BNVCA), said on television that almost all aggression against Jews had been committed by Muslims.
Since 2012, terrorist attacks by Islamists in France have claimed 263 lives. On October 29, an 84-year-old veteran, Claude Sinke, opened fire on the Bayonne mosque in southwestern France, and injured two people. That was the only violent attack against Muslims committed in France.
The only journalist who, in spite of court convictions and threats raining down on him, dares to speak openly about Islam, is Éric Zemmour. He has not yet been silenced. Those who have asked for his exclusion from the media have so far not met with success -- but have not given up. Zemmour participates in a daily talk show on C News television channel. Several companies that advertised on C News tried to boycott the channel until he was removed. Most French political leaders declared that they would not accept an invitation from C News until Zemmour was fired. An article signed by several left-wing journalists was published on the web magazine Mediapart to demand the total and permanent exclusion of Zemmour from all media:
"It is criminal to give him access to any audience. Racism, calls to hatred and violence against minorities are crimes! Zemmour was sentenced for inciting hatred. Hatred! The crimes against humanity committed during World War II started with hate speech."
Muslim organizations, calling for demonstrations in front of C News every week, also said that their rallies would last until Zemmour "disappears". During a demonstration on November 2, one of the organizers, Abdelaziz Chaambi, listed in a police database for his ties to violent Islamic organizations, called Zemmour a "filthy monster" and a "Zionist bastard". Chaambi was warmly applauded by the crowd.
Although C News has not, so far, bowed to the pressure, it nevertheless issued a statement that Zemmour's programs would now be broadcast after lawyers carefully checked their contents to see that any controversial material was removed.
Those who accuse Zemmour of racism or inciting hatred and violence have never quoted a racist phrase or incitement to hate or violence by Zemmour: there are none. Zemmour was condemned for saying that "in innumerable French suburbs where many girls are veiled, a struggle to Islamize a territory exists". In France today, saying that girls in the suburbs are veiled and that there is a desire to Islamize the territory ends up condemned by the courts.
Zemmour, seemingly pessimistic, said a year ago that he is "fight[ing] for the survival of France", but fears it is "a battle already lost". He has suggested that France is threatened not by a risk of "partition", but by an inverted "colonization". He could be proven right.
In September 2017, the economist Charles Gave published an article, "Tomorrow, the Demographic Suicide of Europe", in which he explained that all data indicated that unless a deep and unlikely change occurs, France, before the end of the 21st century, will be predominantly Muslim. He added that the current Muslim minority will have such weight, that in thirty years, by 2050, France will have submitted to Islam. Demographers who study the issue, such as Michèle Tribalat, confirmed the finding. Gave was immediately denounced in the mainstream press as "Islamophobic" and as having adopted "foolish reasoning".
Imams in French mosques and the Muslim world do not seem to think that Gave's reasoning is foolish, and say it openly. On March 12, the imam of al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem announced:
"In 2050, France will be an Islamic country. We believe that Muslims will have a country that will bring Islam, its guidance, its light, its message and its mercy to the people of the West through jihad, for the sake of Allah ... At the time of the Ottoman Empire the Muslims had conquered Poland and Austria, and the call to prayer was recited there; the Islamic nation is able to recover its original identity, and spread Islam, Allah willing. The means at our disposal are the conversion to Islam and the payment of the jizya [protection tax, ed.], or we will ask the help of Allah to fight the infidels ".
The fight against the "infidels" is already underway.
A growing number of French citizens have been converting to Islam. Victor Loupan, a commentator on Christian radio Notre Dame, said:
"We don't know the numbers. But if you walk the streets, you will be struck by the number of white European people wearing Islamist clothing ".
A French-Lebanese journalist, Maya Khadra, said in an interview on Al-Hurra television, that one of her friends had interviewed young French Muslims in the suburbs of Paris and asked them why they accepted money from the French state while saying that they hate France. They answered: "What they pay us is the jizya [Islamic protection tax]".
One of Macron's advisors, Yassine Belattar, recently said, before resigning on October 17,
"We are not in a project of assimilation. France must get used to the fact that we remain. They do not realize what we have prepared: that is our children".
In an interview with a branch of Muslims of France called the Collective Against Islamophobia, Fatima E., the veiled woman challenged by Julien Odoul, said that her life was "totally destroyed"; that her son had "nightmares" and that she was planning to file a complaint for "public incitement to racial hatred". A photograph of her with her son was widely circulated in French newspapers; she received thousands of messages of support. Referring to her complaint, a lawyer, Gilles-William Goldnadel, spoke of "outrageous victimization". He noted that her son had attracted the attention of many journalists, but that the orphaned children of the four policemen murdered by Mickaël Harpon did not interest anyone.
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27 books on France and Europe.
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