LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 08/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.november08.19.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006

Bible Quotations For today
Whoever does not provide for relatives, and especially for family members, has denied the faith and is worse than an unbeliever
First Letter to Timothy 05/01-10/:”Do not speak harshly to an older man, but speak to him as to a father, to younger men as brothers, to older women as mothers, to younger women as sisters with absolute purity. Honour widows who are really widows. If a widow has children or grandchildren, they should first learn their religious duty to their own family and make some repayment to their parents; for this is pleasing in God’s sight. The real widow, left alone, has set her hope on God and continues in supplications and prayers night and day; but the widow who lives for pleasure is dead even while she lives. Give these commands as well, so that they may be above reproach. And whoever does not provide for relatives, and especially for family members, has denied the faith and is worse than an unbeliever. Let a widow be put on the list if she is not less than sixty years old and has been married only once; she must be well attested for her good works, as one who has brought up children, shown hospitality, washed the saints’ feet, helped the afflicted, and devoted herself to doing good in every way.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 07-08/2019
Students Press On with Demands as Anti-Government Protests Grow
Lebanon: New Government to Take Shape within 48 Hours
Hariri Holds Talks with Aoun in Baabda
Lebanon’s Hariri meets Aoun, says will continue talks
Protesters Rally outside EDL and Saniora, Choucair Houses
Berri Says Fully Keen on Hariri's Re-Designation as Premier
Financial Prosecutor Interrogates Saniora for 3 Hours
Shehayyeb Dismisses '$9 Million' Suspicions, Urges Students to Limit Demos to Afternoon
Protesters block Bank of Lebanon entrance, prevent staff from entering building
Iranian military chief: ‘Enemies’ using protests in Iraq, Lebanon to harm Iran
UN expresses concern over rising Iraq protests death toll
Financial Prosecutor Orders Graft Probes as Protests Enter 4th Week
Cars Queue at Gas Stations amid Renewed Exchange Rate Crisis
Bteish Issues Memo on Pricing in Local Currency
Jumblat Says PSP Not Involved in Upcoming Government
Financial Prosecutor Presses Charges against Customs Head

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 07-08/2019
Iran Cancels Accreditation of UN Nuclear Inspector
Protesters block entrance to Iraqi port after brief resumption of operations
Four protestors killed after security forces use live gunfire in Baghdad
Erdogan says US not fulfilling Syria deal ahead of Trump talks
US says Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan reaffirm joint efforts to reach deal on dam
Iran moved uranium gas to Fordow site: UN watchdog
Iraqi forces kill 10 protesters in Baghdad and Basra
Qatar, Turkey reaffirm desire for ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’
UN Security Council welcomes Riyadh Agreement between Yemeni parties
Pompeo commends Saudi Arabia’s role in facilitating deal between Yemen govt, STC
Iraqi forces kill 10 protesters in Baghdad and Basra
US targets al-Qaeda leaders in West Africa and Mideast
Yemen’s President Hadi meets separatist leader after deal ends power struggle
US-led naval coalition opens command center in Bahrain to protect oil tankers
Jared Kushner says US partnerships strengthened under Trump
France’s Macron says NATO experiencing ‘brain death’
Erdogan: Al-Baghdadi’s inner circle trying to enter Turkey
Amman: ‘Stabbing Attack’ on Tourists in Jerash
Guterres Condemns Live Fire at Iraqi Protesters as 'Disturbing'
Trump Optimistic About Outcome of Renaissance Dam Discussions
Morocco Worried About Return of ISIS Militants

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 07-08/2019
Students call for universities to close two days in a row/Chiri Choucai/Annahar/November 08/2019
Lebanon's complex web of corruption and its legality/Christina Farhat/Annahar/November 07/2019 Last
Lebanon's private sector registers slowest 3-year decline in business conditions/Massoud A Derhally/The National/November 07/2019
Lebanon: student strikes and occupying offices maintains pressure on politicians/Sunniva Rose/The National/November 07/ 2019
Lebanon’s Richest Need To Take a Haircut/Dan Azzi/Bloomberg/November 07/2019
Khamenei’s Principle for Iraq, Lebanon: Change is Forbidden/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/November 07/2019
Middle East: The Anti-Iran Revolution is Well Underway/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/November 07/2019
Are We Seeing A New Wave of Arab Spring Uprisings in 2019/Michael Young/Carnegie/November 07/2019
Is It Even Possible to Change the Regime in Iraq?/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/November 07/2019
Do Not Support China's Huawei, Cripple It Instead/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/November 07/2019
Mexico-based Jordanian Smuggler of Six Yemenis Sentenced in Texas/Todd Bensman/The Federalist/November 07/2019
Iran’s support for terrorism has surged in 2019/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/November 07, 2019
Using American Soft Power to Counter Russian Influence in Iraq/Anna Borshchevskaya/The Washington Institute/November 07/2019
Erdogan in Washington: Setting the Agenda for a Pivotal Visit/Soner Cagaptay, Anna Borshchevskaya, Conor Hiney, Dana Stroul, and Charles Thépaut/The Washington Institute/November 07/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 07-08/2019
Students Press On with Demands as Anti-Government Protests Grow
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 07/2019
Thousands skipped universities and school for the second day on Thursday joining nationwide anti-government demonstrations that continued for the 22nd day against a corrupt political class. Pupils carrying their schoolbags picked up the baton from thousands of women who ignited the main protest site in Beirut on Wednesday evening by banging pots and pans to demand their rights. In Tripoli, where mobilisation has been relentless since the protests erupted on October 17, demonstrators planned to take down the giant portraits of politicians plastered all over the city's buildings. Grievances initially focused on poor infrastructure and abysmal public services quickly grew into an unprecedented nationwide push to drive out an elite protesters say has ruled the country like a cartel for decades. Thousands of university and high school students streamed into the streets of Beirut and other towns to boost the protests. "All of them, all of them are thieves," chanted one pupil, perched on the shoulders of a schoolmate outside the education ministry. Setting off coloured flares and waving Lebanese flags, students blocked off traffic to demand the wholesale removal of the current political class and its sectarian-based power-sharing system."What if we had a young, educated, ethical and competent political leadership?" was the question asked on one placard.
Political posters
"We go to school, we work hard and in the end we pick up diplomas so we can just hang around and stay at home doing nothing," said Marwa Abdel Rahman, 16. Youth unemployment stands at more than 30 percent in Lebanon, from which many young people were seeking to emigrate until last month's rallies created a rare moment of national hope and unity in a country often characterised by its divisions. What started as a spontaneous, apolitical and leaderless popular movement, is becoming increasingly organised, with activists coming together to synchronise marches and stunts across the country. After blocking off roads for days, protesters have switched to preventing access to institutions seen as the most egregious examples of mismanagement and corruption. Students in Tripoli blocked employees from clocking in for work at the telecommunications ministry building. "We want to keep up the pressure on our corrupt political leaders, who are not addressing our demands," said Samir Mustafa, an unemployed 29-year-old. Prime Minister Saad Hariri tendered his government's resignation on October 29 in response to pressure from the street. The cabinet has stayed on in a caretaker capacity but efforts to form a new line-up seem to be stalling, with each faction in the outgoing coalition arrangement seeking to salvage some influence. "They want to name a prime minister from the old guard, from the corrupt class," Mustafa ranted. "We will continue to block banks and key administrations until the president and the parliament fall," he said.
Women lead
The World Bank on Wednesday warned that the failure to quickly form a government that meets protesters' demands could lead to an even sharper economic downturn. President Michel Aoun is reported to remain bent on keeping Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, his son-in-law and arguably the most reviled politician among the protesters, in a key position. For his part parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a veteran player whose supporters tried to disrupt the protests last month, has not publicly commented at all on the protests sweeping the country. In a country where weapons are widespread and leading political parties routinely resort to hired thugs, the protests -- and attempts by the security forces to quell them -- have been remarkably bloodless. On Wednesday night, thousands of women staged a candle-lit rally on Martyrs Square, banging pots and pans with wooden spoons to set downtown Beirut abuzz. The commotion, broadcast live on several television channels, turned contagious and for several minutes residents could be heard across the city chiming in from home with their own utensils. "Revolution is a woman," read one of the banners in the crowd, which launched into a rousing rendition of the national anthem, adapting the lyrics to include women.

Lebanon: New Government to Take Shape within 48 Hours
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 07 November/2019
President Michel Aoun is yet to announce the beginning of binding parliamentary consultations to appoint a new prime minister, while ministerial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that caretaker Premier Saad Hariri stressed that wasting time would not help Lebanon’s deteriorating political and financial crises. Other sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the new government has started to take shape, amid extensive meetings between parliamentary blocs to determine whether the cabinet would be solely formed of technocrats or of representatives of the main political blocs along with technocrats. The sources expected that these proposals would be developed within the next 48 hours, adding that the ongoing efforts were coordinated with a group of civil society representatives, who expressed their openness to dialogue. One of the points to be decided is whether Hariri would head the new cabinet. The ministerial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that he was not very enthusiastic about returning to the premiership and that he would not offer any concessions. If Hariri is not appointed, the sources said that he would support a “moderate figure” and would use all his international and domestic influence to salvage the country from the economic crisis. Meanwhile, member of Hariri's al-Mustaqbal Parliamentary Bloc, MP Samir al-Jisr, said that politicians should listen to the people and work for the benefit of the country. In a television interview, Jisr said that the street protests did not topple Hariri, but the latter responded to the opinion of people and tried to find a way out. Hariri resigned last month, declaring he had hit a “dead end” in trying to resolve a crisis unleashed by huge protests against the ruling elite.

Hariri Holds Talks with Aoun in Baabda
Naharnet/November 07/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri held talks with President Michel Aoun Thursday afternoon at the Baabda Palace. "I visited the president for consultations on the issue of the government and we’ll continue the consultations with the rest of the parties," Hariri said after the meeting. MTV said the meeting was held at “President Aoun’s request.”This is the first meeting between Aoun and Hariri since the premier submitted his government’s resignation last month. Hariri has held two meetings with Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil in recent days. Bassil is Aoun’s son-in-law and his successor as FPM leader. The president has delayed the binding parliamentary consultations to pick a new PM in a bid to secure consensus on the shape of the new government.

Lebanon’s Hariri meets Aoun, says will continue talks
Reuters, Beirut/Thursday, 7 November 2019
Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri met President Michel Aoun on Thursday and said after the meeting he would continue to hold talks with the head of state and other parties. Hariri resigned as prime minister last week.
“I came to talk to his Excellency the President and we will continue the consultations with other parties,” he said, adding that this was all he wanted to say.

Protesters Rally outside EDL and Saniora, Choucair Houses
Naharnet/November 07/2019
Lebanon’s anti-corruption protesters on Thursday staged a demo outside the headquarters of state-run Electricite du Liban in Beirut’s Gemmayze area to denounce chronic power cuts and an institution seen as a symbol of Lebanon’s dysfunctional political system. Protests were also held outside ex-PM Fouad Saniora’s house on Beirut’s Bliss Street and outside his office in the Sidon district town of al-Hlaliyeh. Saniora on Thursday gave a three-hour testimony before Financial Prosecutor Ali Ibrahim in the case of “the $11 billion spent between 2006 and 2008,” the National News Agency said.
Protesters on Bliss Street later headed to the area outside the house of caretaker Telecom Minister Mohammed Choucair in Hamra. Al-Jadeed TV meanwhile reported that three protesters smashed the glass façade of the Kababji restaurant on Hamra Street despite an attempt by other demonstrators to stop them. Saniora and his son have been accused of owning shares in the restaurant chain. Kababji issued a statement Thursday denying that the restaurant is owned by “any incumbent or former premier, minister or MP.”In the northern city of Tripoli, where mobilization has been relentless since the protests erupted on October 17, demonstrators took down politicians' portraits from city buildings and replaced them with the Lebanese flag. Protests meanwhile continued in Beirut’s Riad al-Solh Square, Tripoli’s al-Nour Square, Sidon’s Elia roundabout and other areas across Lebanon.

Berri Says Fully Keen on Hariri's Re-Designation as Premier
Naharnet/November 07/2019
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Thursday said that he is fully keen on the re-designation of caretaker PM Saad Hariri as premier.
“I’m insisting on his designation because it is in Lebanon’s interest and I support Lebanon’s interest,” Berri told NBN television. Hariri tendered his government's resignation on October 29 in response to pressure from unprecedented, massive and cross-sectarian street protests that have entered the fourth week now. The cabinet has stayed on in a caretaker capacity but efforts to form a new line-up seem to be stalling, with each faction in the outgoing coalition seeking to salvage some influence. Hariri met President Michel Aoun Thursday and said that consultations were ongoing with all political players but gave no details. The World Bank on Wednesday warned that the failure to quickly form a government that meets protesters' demands could lead to an even sharper economic downturn.

Financial Prosecutor Interrogates Saniora for 3 Hours
Naharnet/November 07/2019
Former premier Fouad Saniora on Thursday gave a three-hour testimony before Financial Prosecutor Ali Ibrahim in the case of “the $11 billion spent between 2006 and 2008,” the National News Agency said. The hearing session was held in the presence of Saniora’s lawyer – ex-minister Rashid Derbas. In remarks to Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, Saniora had said that he would not attend the session. “”I am a man under the law, I fully trust what I have done for the interest of Lebanon and the Lebanese, I would have done the same today if I were the prime minister,” added Saniora. On Wednesday, the financial prosecutor had asked Saniora to “show up at his office at the Justice Palace on Thursday morning,” the National News Agency reported. But State Prosecutor Ghassan Ouweidat later told NNA that "due to the failure to inform ex-PM Fouad Saniora of the date of the hearing session... it has been decided to reschedule the session to Thursday, November 14."Earlier this year, Hizbullah MP Hassan Fadlallah called for a probe into what he claimed were missing state funds amounting to $11 billion dollars. He was indirectly pointing a finger at former PM Saniora. He submitted financial documents to the judiciary that he claimed could “land many people in jail, including former prime ministers.”Saniora later described the issue of the “missing” $11 billion as a “farce,” as he announced that those “setting up mini-states inside the state” are the real corrupts, in an apparent jab at Hizbullah. Saniora said the 11 billion dollars in question were spent on interest hikes, treasury loans for Electricite Du Liban, and wage hikes and recruitment expenses for the armed forces.

Shehayyeb Dismisses '$9 Million' Suspicions, Urges Students to Limit Demos to Afternoon
Naharnet/November 07/2019
Caretaker Education Minister Akram Shehayyeb on Thursday attributed “claims about the loss of $9 million in the file of refugee education” to “a shortage in funding according to UNICEF.”“To boost transparency over the file, I sent a memo to the Central Inspection Board asking it to look into the file to unveil the truth,” Shehayyeb said at a press conference. “The process of distributing funds earmarked for refugee education which the ministry receives from donor nations through UNICEF is subject to a mechanism that is pre-defined by UNICEF,” Shehayyeb added, noting that the said mechanism is subject to audit by “an independent international auditing firm tasked by the U.N. Commenting on the student demonstrations that have engulfed Lebanon in recent days as part of the massive anti-corruption protests, the minister advised students to “return to schools until 2:00 pm everyday and rally instead in the afternoon.”“This is your right and this would be a healthy approach that would preserve your educational course and academic year. Students are the builders of the future and the country and their right to express their opinion is sacred,” Shehayyeb added. Thousands of students took to the streets across Lebanon Thursday to demand a better future as anti-government protests now entering their fourth week continued to spread. Pupils carrying their schoolbags picked up the baton from thousands of women who ignited the main protest site in Beirut on Wednesday evening by banging pots and pans to demand their rights.
Grievances initially focused on poor infrastructure and abysmal public services quickly grew into an unprecedented nationwide push to drive out an elite protesters say has ruled the country like a cartel for decades.
Thousands of university and high school students streamed into the streets of Beirut and other towns to boost the protests. "All of them, all of them are thieves," chanted one pupil, perched on the shoulders of a schoolmate outside the education ministry.
Setting off coloured flares and waving Lebanese flags, students blocked off traffic to demand the wholesale removal of the current political class and its sectarian-based power-sharing system. "What if we had a young, educated, ethical and competent political leadership?" was the question asked on one placard.

Protesters block Bank of Lebanon entrance, prevent staff from entering building
Staff writer, Al Arabiya/English Thursday, 7 November 2019
Protesters blocked the entrance of a branch of the Bank of Lebanon in Tripoli on Thursday, and prevented staff members from entering the building. The move came amid continued disruption on the twenty-second day of protests across Lebanon. In Akkar in north Lebanon, students staged a sit-down outside of their high schools, reported Lebanon's National News Agency (NNA). Students also protested elsewhere in the country, including in Batroun. On Wednesday, students had protested in front of the Ministry of Education in Beirut, giving renewed momentum to the protests during their third week.
In government, the speaker of parliament and leader of the Amal political party Nabih Berri reportedly met with Salim Sfeir, the Head of the Lebanese Banks Association, according to the NNA. Lebanon's banks have suffered during the crisis, with many remaining closed.
Ratings agency Fitch further downgraded on Wednesday one of Lebanon's largest lenders, Byblos Bank, due to its substantial exposure to the country’s central bank. Berri, alongside his ally Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah, have criticized the protests and refused to resign. President Michel Aoun last week called for a non-sectarian government, but demonstrators continue to call for the resignation of the entire cabinet after Prime Minister Saad Hariri's resignation.

Iranian military chief: ‘Enemies’ using protests in Iraq, Lebanon to harm Iran
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya/English Thursday, 7 November 2019
Iran’s army chief of staff Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri said on Thursday that the “enemies” are looking to bring on “mercenary governments” in Iraq and Lebanon through anti-government protests in the two countries, according to Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency. “In recent days, the enemies have conspired in Iraq and Lebanon to exploit the rightful demands of the people and bring on mercenary governments, but the [Shia] clergy and the people foiled their plot,” said Bagheri. “The enemies think that they can harm the Resistance Axis with these plots,” he added. The “Resistance Axis” is the term Iran uses to describe its network of proxies, allies, and terrorist organizations in the region. Iran sees anti-government movements in Iraq and Lebanon as a threat to its influence in the two countries. Iranian officials have repeatedly accused the US and Arab states of being behind the unrest in Lebanon and Iraq since the start of the protests. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei criticized the Iraqi and Lebanese protesters on October 30, saying that “those who care in Lebanon and Iraq” should focus on, and prioritize, improving security in the countries before anything else. The protests in Iraq and Lebanon are fueled by local grievances and mainly directed at political elites, but they also pose a challenge to Iran, which closely backs both governments, as well as powerful armed groups in each country. An increasingly violent crackdown on protestors in Iraq and an attack by Hezbollah supporters on the main protest group in Beirut have raised fears of a backlash by Iran and its allies.

UN expresses concern over rising Iraq protests death toll
Staff writer, Al Arabiya/English Thursday, 7 November 2019
The United Nations expressed its concern over the rising death toll and injuries during the ongoing protests in Iraq. “The Secretary-General expresses his serious concern over the rising number of deaths and injuries during the ongoing demonstrations in Iraq. Reports of the continued use of live ammunition against demonstrators are disturbing,” a UN spokesperson said in a statement. “The Secretary-General urges all actors to refrain from violence and to investigate all acts of violence seriously. He renews his appeal for meaningful dialogue between the Government and demonstrators,” the statement added.
More than 260 Iraqis have been killed since the start of October in the largest demonstrations since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. Protesters are demanding the overthrow of a political class seen as corrupt and beholden to foreign interests.

Financial Prosecutor Orders Graft Probes as Protests Enter 4th Week
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 07/2019
Lebanon's financial prosecutor on Thursday ordered sweeping investigations into suspected corruption and waste of public funds by senior officials, the state National News Agency reported. The move comes as a nationwide protest movement over poor services, economic woes and official corruption enters its fourth week with demonstrators hoping to expel an elite they say has ruled the country like a cartel for decades. Financial prosecutor Ali Ibrahim has launched probes into customs authority chief Badri al-Daher over suspected "waste of public funds," NNA reported. It said he had ordered an inquiry into "all the ministers of successive governments since 1990." Protesters have been demanding an overhaul of the political elite, which has hardly changed since the end of the country's devastating 1975-1990 civil war. The prosecutor's decision came after lawyers brought a case against the officials in question over alleged misappropriation or use of public funds for personal purposes, along with "abuses of power which caused significant damage to Lebanese citizens," the agency said. Authorities have proposed similar probes in recent days to show they are fighting corruption, but that has done little to calm public anger. On Thursday, the financial prosecutor questioned former premier Fouad Saniora for three hours over $11 billion allegedly spent during his period in office from 2006 to 2008, the NNA said. Saniora has in the past denied all accusations of misappropriation of public funds. On Wednesday, the financial prosecutor filed a lawsuit against a senior Beirut airport official over alleged money laundering and bribery, NNA reported. Last month, another prosecutor pressed charges against former prime minister Najib Miqati over allegations he wrongly received millions of dollars in subsidized housing loans, charges he denies.
Lebanon is ranked 138th out of 180 countries in Transparency International's 2018 corruption perceptions index, with key sectarian leaders accused of running demi-fiefdoms. President Michel Aoun, who has pledged various reforms to combat corruption, gave assurances Wednesday that the next government would be made up of ministers free of any suspicion of corruption. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on October 29 under pressure from the street, but his government has stayed on in a caretaker capacity and leaders are continuing to haggle over the make-up of the next one.

Cars Queue at Gas Stations amid Renewed Exchange Rate Crisis
Naharnet/November 07/2019
Vehicles were on Thursday queuing at gas stations in Beirut and Sidon after station owners said they would soon run out of stocks due to a renewed dollar exchange rate crisis. “The fuel problem has not been resolved because those who should resolve it – the central bank and the Energy Ministry – have not come up with a complete solution but rather half a solution,” the Syndicate of Gas Station Owners and the Syndicate of Fuel Tanker Owners and Fuel Distributors said in a joint statement. “Instead of implementing PM Saad Hariri’s commitment towards the sector on securing 100% of the price of fuel in Lebanese lira, Banque du Liban has only provided 85%, and moreover it has imposed a 0.5% commission and demanded a 30-day freezing of funds in its accounts, which has created an unbearable additional cost,” the statement said. “We will continue to sell the existent stock until it runs out,” the statement added. On September 30, the central bank said it would facilitate access to dollars for importers of petroleum products, wheat and medicine. "Banks that issue letters of credit for the importation of petroleum products (petrol, fuel oil and gas), wheat and medicine will be able to ask the Banque du Liban to ensure the value of such credits in U.S. dollars," the central bank said.The mechanism requires that a "special account" be opened at the central bank, and at least 15 percent of the value of the credit be deposited in it in U.S. dollars, as well as the full value in Lebanese pounds, it said, adding that the central bank would take 0.5 percent from each transaction. Lebanon has had a fixed exchange rate of around 1,500 Lebanese pounds to the dollar in place since 1997.

Bteish Issues Memo on Pricing in Local Currency
Naharnet/November 07/2019
Caretaker Economy Minister Mansour Bteish issued a memorandum related to local currency pricing, the National News Agency reported on Thursday. The statement requires all merchants and providers of services in Lebanon to comply with pricing goods and services exclusively in Lebanese currency in accordance with the provisions of the Consumer Protection Law. The statement added that take legal measures will be taken against violators.

Jumblat Says PSP Not Involved in Upcoming Government
Naharnet/November 07/2019
Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat slammed the authority’s intent to “revive” a settlement related to the presidency post, adding that his party will not participate in the upcoming government. He said the authority continues to look for gains despite mass protests thronging the streets for the past 22 days demanding to overhaul the political class. “In the midst of the constitutional violation and at the height of socio-economic risks and at the height of the popular movement, they (authority) consult and meet on how to improve and beautify the previous settlement that devastated the country accompanied by almost daily threat that what is happening is a conspiracy,” said Jumblat in a tweet. “It is time to get out, but we will not be with you not today nor tomorrow,” he added.

Financial Prosecutor Presses Charges against Customs Head
Naharnet/November 07/2019
Financial Prosecutor Ali Ibrahim pressed charges of “squandering public funds" against Director General of the Lebanese Customs Badri Daher. Reports said that Daher is expected to hold a press conference at 4:00 p.m.On Wednesday, Daher said in a statement addressing the Lebanese that he is free of any accusations fired at him through media platforms.

Students call for universities to close two days in a row
Chiri Choucai/Annahar/November 08/2019
BEIRUT: After the announcement of reopening universities in Lebanon as the nationwide revolution entered its 18th day, many university students found themselves unable to balance classes and assignments while participating in protests and decided to take action.
Lebanon has witnessed over the past two days, a student revolution consisting of university and school students who filled the streets of Beirut, Jounieh, Saida, Tripoli, and many more regions with a demand from the government to fasten the pace on the cabinet formation.
Starting from the American University of Science and Technology (AUST), which announced its official closing yesterday, Wednesday, October 6 till Tuesday October 12 “in the light of current conditions”, after a large number of students protested in front the university gates. The students continued to march towards Balamand University and the Saint Joseph University in order to pressure university administrations on closing as well.
"After the decision that was taken of opening all universities, a large number of us students were against this decision.” Ahmad Najdi, an AUST student told Annahar, “We as students see that as soon as the education institutions open, they are trying to tell us life is back to normal and many parents will pressure students to get out of protests on ground."
Today, the student revolution took a wider scale as it started at the lower gates of the Lebanese American University (LAU) with students chanting “We will not continue our education before the corrupt system falls”. The students continued towards the Haigazian Univeristy which closed for the day, and then towards the American University of Beirut and finally reaching Riyad El Solh Square.
Lea Faqih, an LAU student told Annahar: “I personally asked the university if I could be absent due to my participation in the protests and they said I could. Later, professors sent me an email with exams, assignments, and presentations deadlines. We can't go to universities during the day and protest during the night. There's no option, we have no solution for our futures except for protesting. We won't be negotiating with the university about any demands except for closing. I have six major courses, two jobs, and an internship at a school. There's no way i could balance all that and protest.”
The universities that took the official choice of closing in Beirut are still only AUST, Beirut Arab University, and Lebanese International University. As for other universities, classes and faculties remained open causing many students to miss out on important material.
AUB’s Secular Club President, Dany Rachid, explained how the student’s inability to participate in important decision making processes has influenced their protest. “We want our voices heard because they deserve to be. There’s a revolution happening in the country, and we are a group that has been active for 12 years, and we believe that the sectarian system oppresses us and simply doesn’t work, we want to change the system and create a democratic country.”
"The idea that we want to close universities is not because it puts pressure on the government, but a right for us to protest. Especially, that as students we believe in the revolution,” student Mohammad Mazloum told Annahar, “We are students asking for education, not for war. It's our job as the new generation of youth to take back the power because it's our time. This is an independent revolution, and we do not want any political affiliation, we want new faces and professionals to represent us and we definitely don't want to leave Lebanon."
As for USJ students, the Student Body President at the Amicale Law Faculty, explained to Annahar how protesting is a culture they wanted to preserve at the university. “The 2000's student revolution started from us which lead to the 2005 revolution that freed Lebanon, it started by our previous alumni at USJ. It's our national duty to participate in the revolution. We represent Lebanon first in everything; our priority is to fix the situation in Lebanon. Our demands are first, to fasten the pace for electing a Prime Minister and a cabinet of professionals that is able to help the country, and second to return stolen money and prosecuting all corrupt leaders."

Lebanon's complex web of corruption and its legality
Christina Farhat/Annahar/November 07/2019 Last
Lebanon, run under a confessionalist power-sharing governance structure, has long been subject to nepotism, systematic patronage, judicial failures, electoral fraud, bribery, cronyism, and clientelism.
BEIRUT: While one may find themselves jogging their memory to recall Lebanon’s seemingly ever-shifting political post-war alliances, remembering the names of the country's politicians will render itself a much easier task - they’ve been largely the same for thirty years.
Lebanon, run under a confessionalist power-sharing governance structure, has long been subject to nepotism, systematic patronage, judicial failures, electoral fraud, bribery, cronyism, and clientelism.
Transparency International ranked Lebanon the 138th least corrupt nation out of 175 countries in 2018. Corruption rankings in Lebanon averaged 115.25 from 2003 until 2018, reaching a peak of 143 in 2017, when the country was recovering from a period of political deadlock, and a record low of 63 in 2006.
While the international donor community holds their breath as their 11 billion USD in CEDRE funds are dangling just out of the Lebanese government’s arm’s length, and an impending sense of economic doom looms in the distance, millions of protestors have flooded the streets in a display of social dynamism and cohesion that disproved the accepted “given” of a divided, sectarian, Lebanese civil society. At the core of protestor’s demands? Combating corruption.
In-part due to political instability, Lebanon has failed to establish necessary integrity frameworks to fight corruption. Lebanon’s confessional power-sharing structures provoke quid-pro-quo arrangements, and patronage networks, in the public sector, having dire ramifications on the plummeting economy, and Lebanon at-large.
While the national anti-corruption campaign gained traction, it has been highly politicized in the past few years. The campaign has only tackled two corruption cases since 1992. With parliamentarians floating comfortably above the law, prosecution of the President and Ministers requires the consent of the Supreme Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers, comprised of eight senior Lebanese judges, and seven deputies chosen by the parliament.
Dr. Paul Morcos, Attorney at Law, Legal Consultant, and University Professor, told Annahar that the legal framework to address corruption is present, with an entire chapter of the Lebanese penal code dedicated to addressing crimes related to bribery and public funds embezzlement, and law 44-2015 addressing money laundering and terrorist financing.
Despite the assumption that all forms of corruption are underhanded, some aspects of corruption are legal due to the absence of existing legislation, non-reform of existing legislation to address current applications, and/ or a precedent of lack of implementation.
“We have the laws, they exist, but they need to be reformed. They need to be updated and renewed to address new challenges,” Morcos told Annahar.
Morcos went on to distinguish between verbal public approval, and legal consent, of political leaders in addressing the fight against corruption.
“Perhaps most importantly, we have to have the political will to fight corruption. Despite having the verbal, publicly proclaimed, approval of political leaders, we don’t have their legal consent yet. You can’t act consistently in the judiciary if politicians are against fighting corruption while publicly claiming they are with fighting corruption,” Morcos told Annahar.
On the Judiciary
Morcos insists that a law originating in the judiciary, and passed by parliament, is necessary to maintain the independence of the judicial body.
“We need a law to preserve and maintain the independence of the judiciary and such law should be originated from the judiciary committee and voted on in parliament. However, said ‘corrupt’ politicians will likely have no interest in passing such as law, as they have an incentive to keep their interests isolated,” Morcos told Annahar.
Morcos recommends legislation be put in place to eliminate conflict of interest post-judgeship mirroring that of the United States of America and the United Kingdom. The former disallowing employment after the Supreme Court in the event of retirement (justices serving lifelong appointments), while the latter implements a Supreme Court judge retirement age of 70 with no explicit law stopping the judges from taking up post-retirement jobs, but no judge taking a job in practice.
“In the meanwhile, the judiciary can produce an ethical code of conduct, or document, stating, or undertaking, their independence, as individuals. For example, if you talk about the high judicial council members, they could be banned from engage themselves and/or undertaking any political, or administrative positions, in the state after they resign. This will give them autonomy and independence in the present,” Morcos told Annahar.
Dr. Morcos acknowledged that it would be difficult, but not impossible, to compel the parliament to enact laws guaranteeing the independence of the judiciary.
“There were new laws enacted last year related to whistleblowing and electronic transactions in other fields. Such laws that are very old should be subject to reform and should be done by a special committee or subcommittee each and every time you have political priorities prevailing so you don't have any inconsistencies in the legislative process for reform.” Morcos told Annahar.
On Legislative Reform
Despite the Lebanese constitution stating that every Lebanese citizen has the right to hold public office, and that “no preference shall be made except on the basis of merit and competence,” the public sector has been dominated by the same families for decades. “We need new electoral law that results in fairer representation, which is lacking in the new electoral law that was passed last year. We must form a new government, first from technocrats, and then receive legislative empowerment from the parliament to enable the new government, itself, to enact a new electoral law through a legislative decree. Some say this is unconstitutional and impossible after Taif but under the current circumstances I think it’s possible,” Morcos told Annahar.
While this is a critical constitutional matter, one option for reforming the legislative branch is passing a legislative decree and calling for new elections based on a law enacted by the current parliament to reduce this mandate.
“This is the best way to reform and reconstitute a legislative branch. At that time you can give a chance for civil society to be represented and to enable the civil society to fight for such anti-corruption laws- this is the best way.” Morcos told Annahar. Acknowledging the challenges arising from this recommended course of action, especially due to the leaderless nature of protests, Morcos’s outlook remains principally positive. “This is very difficult but not impossible if people on the street are organized and have an advocacy plan based on specific requests you might reach this goal.” Morcos told Annahar.
On Banking Secrecy
Despite the existence of legislation requiring that the President of the Republic, the President of the Chamber of Deputies, and the President of the Council of Ministers, judges, and public servants to disclose their financial assets in a sealed envelope to their relevant councils, this information is not readily available to the public. In light of the protests, a recent debate on lifting banking secrecy has been framed incorrectly. Existing legislation already addresses this matter.
“The problem is presented incorrectly. Banking secrecy is no longer an obstacle for fighting corruption. It was true in 2001 when we lacked anti-money laundering legislation, but, since then, we have new legislation enacted in 2001 and amended it regularly until we passed a new law in 2015.” Morcos told Annahar. The outlined crimes of corruption trigger the lift on banking secrecy automatically-banking secrecy is not a method to fight corruption.
“Law number 44 explicitly includes the crime of corruption in addition to illicit enrichment and embezzlement of public funds. In case of such crimes occurring, banking secrecy is automatically lifted and the special investigation commission at BDL has a right to investigate and no banking secrecy will stand in their way. Of course, you need a reform in legislation as a whole but saying that banking secrecy is the obstacle is wrong.” Morcos told Annahar.

Lebanon's private sector registers slowest 3-year decline in business conditions
Massoud A Derhally/The National/November 07/2019
The slower deterioration in operating conditions was partly driven by a softer fall in output at Lebanese private sector firms in October
Lebanese protesters demand the president make parliamentary consultations immediately to facilitate the formation of a new government that replaces the recently resigned cabinet. They also demand the formation of a technocratic government with no political affiliation. EPA
Lebanon recorded its slowest decline in business activity in three years, although its economy continues to shrink and may feel the brunt of social unrest that has gripped the country for the past three weeks in forthcoming months, according to the latest data released by IHS Markit and Blom Bank, the country's largest bank by market capitalisation. The Blom Lebanon Purchasing Managers index recorded a headline rate of 48.3 in October, up from 46.3 in September, however the results could be different as data collection during the survey, ended earlier than planned on or before October 17, due to the closure of business amid nationwide protests in the country. A reading above 50 indicates an increase in economic activity, whereas a rate below 50 indicates contraction.
Lebanon’s economy has been shrinking since mid-2013 and the country has been rocked by the largest protests since the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri which forced Syria to withdraw its troops after a 29-year presence there.
The survey showed a decline in output was the slowest since January 2016 with a softer contraction in October's total new orders domestically, while new export orders fell at the same pace as September.
The country's economy has grown between 0 and 0.5 per cent since the beginning of the year, said Blominvest Bank general manager Fadi Osseiran.
"The operations of private sector companies since the protests are paralysed," Mr Osseiran said. "Therefore, the materialisation of economic cost of the business impasse is expected in November’s PMI, noting that every day of closure will have an additional cost on the economy.”
Lebanon’s economy is projected to slow to 0.2 per cent this year, from about 0.3 per cent in 2018, according to International Monetary Fund estimates made before the resignation of prime minister Saad Hariri last month. Mr Hariri stepped down over disagreements with members of his national unity government on reforms demanded by protesters who blame Lebanon’s political elite for widespread corruption and nepotism, that they say contributed to the country accruing $86bn of public debt equivalent to 150 per cent of gross domestic product.
Lebanon registered an outflow of capital estimated at about $3 billion in the first nine months of the year, due to its deteriorating economic climate and heightened political tensions, according to the Institute of International Finance.
Rating agencies have downgraded the country and some of its top banks into junk or non-invetsment grade.

Lebanon: student strikes and occupying offices maintains pressure on politicians
Sunniva Rose/The National/November 07/ 2019
President has not set date for parliamentary consultations to nominate new prime minister.
Lebanese students have walked out of classes to join protesters all over the country for the past two days, staging sit-ins and marches against corruption and leadership. They have urged leaders to quickly form a new government of technocrats as Lebanon teeters on the verge of bankruptcy. President Michel Aoun has yet to set a date for parliamentary consultations to nominate a new prime minister-designate since Saad Hariri resigned on October 29 after nearly two weeks of nationwide anti-government demonstrations.
Students protested throughout Lebanon on Thursday carrying placards demanding that politicians speed up the formation of a new government, the state-run National News Agency reported. The have called for corrupt officials to be held to account. In some cases, the army blocked students from protesting while in others, local authorities co-operated.
In Batroun, a coastal city north of Beirut, the mayor temporarily gave students access to the inner courtyard of the town hall, where he gave a speech in support of their demands.
A student protester holds up a placard as she shouts slogans during ongoing protests against the government in front of the education ministry in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2019. Lebanese protesters are rallying outside state institutions and ministries to keep up the pressure on officials to form a new government to deal with the country's economic crisis. A student protester holds up a placard as she shouts slogans outside the Education Ministry in Beirut. AP
On Wednesday evening, thousands of women took part in protests in Beirut, carrying candles as they marched downtown, while others banged pots and pans in front of Parliament. Protesters also gathered in front of public institutions they considered to be corrupt, such as the state-run utility company Electricite du Liban. Local media reported that one man was injured in scuffles with the police when they tried to stop protesters from entering a hotel that is being built on Beirut’s only public beach. Meanwhile, the Lebanese judiciary started action on high-profile corruption cases. A financial prosecutor took steps against the director of Lebanese Customs, Badri Daher, for squandering public funds. The prosecutor also questioned former prime minister Fouad Siniora for about three hours over $11 billion (Dh40.4bn) spent when he was in office between 2006 and 2008. Caretaker Justice Minister Albert Serhan told The Daily Star that street pressure was the reason many of these years-old cases were suddenly going ahead. Demonstrations against specific institutions are a shift in strategy as protesters came under fire for blocking motorways.
“On the long term, blocking roads was not a good idea because it made people very irritable as they could not function normally,” said Michael Young, editor of Carnegie's Middle East Diwan blog.
"This shows a certain amount of flexibility and imagination when it comes to dealing with the authorities, while the political class is stuck in a daze and does not know how to act. Mr Aoun “continued his contacts to determine the date of parliamentary consultations to nominate a new prime minister” before meeting Mr Hariri in the afternoon, NNA reported on Thursday. Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri meets with President Michel Aoun at the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon November 7, 2019. Dalati Nohra/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES
Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri meets President Michel Aoun at the presidential palace in Baabda. Dalati and Nohra, HO
The delay has been caused by the insistence of the president’s son-in-law and caretaker Foreign Minister, Gebran Bassil, to be included in the new government despite his unpopularity with protesters. Mr Bassil has said that if he were removed, Mr Hariri, who is widely expected to lead the new government, should also go. The delay in starting parliamentary consultations is “outrageously long considering the ongoing crisis", Mr Young said. “There is no good solution but they cannot let this linger forever.”On Wednesday, the World Bank called for a new Cabinet to be formed quickly and said it expected the effects of a recession in 2019 to be even more significant than an earlier projection of a 0.2 per cent contraction. Lebanese banks, which have limited access to US dollars for several months, reopened on November 1 after protests prompted them to close.
Cash withdrawals remain capped and clients must pay a small fee, depending on the bank, to take out US dollars.
The Lebanese pounds and American dollar are used interchangeably in Lebanon. The nationwide shortage of dollars has severely affected businesses, which have tried to force clients to pay in dollars. But the Economy Ministry issued a circular on Thursday warning them that they could be prosecuted for failing to use only the local currency for trade.It remains unclear how long Lebanon will remain without a government. As power-sharing is divided among the country’s 18 sects and governments must include representatives of major religious groups, political bickering and power vacuums are common.
Despite the constitutional practices in place since the end of the civil war in 1990, whereby by the president begins parliamentary consultations as soon as the government resigns, the constitution does not give a time limit for him to do so, said Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs in Lebanon. “What politicians are trying to do is to come up with a settlement before the parliamentary consultations take place," Mr Nader said."Unfortunately, this is how it works in Lebanon. Institutions such as Parliament are just a cover to deals made outside between big players.”

Lebanon’s Richest Need To Take a Haircut
Dan Azzi/Bloomberg/November 07/2019
Those who benefited from sky-high interest rates have to give up some of their millions.
At the root of the economic grievances fueling Lebanon’s mass protests lies what looks like a regulated Ponzi scheme. The problem will not be solved by a change of government—even with a cabinet of experts—or by injections of capital from friendly Arab states: it will require tougher measures, including a compulsory haircut for many of the country’s richest citizens.
For decades, Lebanon depended on remittances to sustain its economy and the lira peg. Fixed at 1507.5 lira to the U.S. dollar since 1997, the peg resulted in an overvalued currency, relative to the country’s productivity. This gave the Lebanese a higher income and standard of living than in any neighboring Arab country, allowing them to spend on travel, cars, clothes, and gadgets. During the 2008 credit crisis, Lebanon had a reverse capital flight to its perceived safety. Rich Lebanese expats stopped trusting foreign banks and moved their money home, helping to create a balance-of-payment surplus of $20 billion between 2006 and 2010. This surplus was squandered on real-estate development and government waste, resulting in a bubble, the remnants of which can today be seen in the shiny, vacant towers dotting the Beirut skyline. Starting in 2011, the surplus morphed into a persistent annual deficit. It wasn’t until 2016 that the Banque du Liban recognized the danger signs. The central bank initiated a series of so-called “financial engineering” transactions, which were equivalent to swapping lira for fresh (that is, attracted from overseas) dollars at exorbitant interest rates reaching 14-30%.
Most of the lira thus printed by BDL was recognized as revenue, giving banks record profits, despite a stagnant economy. The two top banks alone made over $1 billion in 2016 in these artificial profits; the bonuses paid to senior managers were in real cash.
The interest owed to earlier depositors was sourced from new investors. Neither local nor foreign analysts picked up on this, even though the mechanism was suspiciously similar to what an infamous Italian immigrant did in Boston a century ago. All employed Lebanese have benefited from this particular variant of the Ponzi scheme: the dollar peg meant that their salaries are worth more than in a floating-currency regime. Due to the crowding-out effect, the main losers are the youth, among whom the unemployment rate is almost 40%. In the Lebanese paradigm, unemployed youth are expected to emigrate, find jobs elsewhere and transmit remittances—in effect, to continue funding the scheme. But this has become increasingly difficult as job opportunities overseas have dwindled.
Most analysts have been too distracted with traditional metrics, such as government debt worth nearly $90 billion, and have been neglecting the fact that BDL has borrowed $110 billion from Lebanese banks—out of $170 billion in total deposits. Half the dollar deposits in Lebanese banks are now with BDL, with the rest in lira. There is just no way for BDL to return this money.
Meanwhile, the astronomically high interest rates have created a cohort of millionaires and decamillionaires. But their account values are just computer entries, produced by compounded rates of return with no productive investment yielding real returns on the other side. Which is why, as bank deposits increased artificially, real liquidity shrank. The real dollars in BDL reserves, plus bank deposits with custodial accounts, amount to around $40 billion: in other words, there’s only one dollar of liquidity for every $3 dollars of claims. This would normally not be a problem in fractional banking, except that all these liabilities are in a foreign currency that BDL cannot print nor generate locally.
The good news is that almost all this debt is internal. This makes the solution quite simple: a national restructuring that equitably distributes losses, clawing back the phantom returns. Less than 1% of depositors, or 24,000 accounts, account for nearly $90 billion, with the average account worth $3.5 million. (Assuming each millionaire has three or four accounts, a common practice in Lebanon, we may be talking about no more than 6,000-8,000 account holders.) But the owners of these phantom-money accounts spend some of it in the real world—on a Bentley, say—which consumes BDL reserves. Similarly, any Lebanese earning in lira consumes BDL reserves every time they go on vacation to Greece or buy an imported product. How to fix the problem? The central bank can start by imposing capital controls on transfers overseas and curtail cash withdrawals; some banks are already doing this, but it would be more efficient and equitable if BDL made it compulsory for all. Capital controls would only stanch the bleeding. Healing the wound would require more drastic measures, such as a haircut on all accounts above $1 million. (The extent of the haircut would depend on where BDL is prepared to start cutting: the larger the account, the deeper the cut can be.) This may require a ministerial decree, possibly even parliamentary approval. Legislators could call it a deferred tax, if that makes it politically more palatable. This will not be as catastrophic as it sounds. A Lebanese who deposited $10 million 10 years ago, at 12%, holds $31 million today. With a 50% haircut, they would have $15.5 million, a quite reasonable return of 4.5%. Lebanon officials may balk at trying something no other country has attempted before, but since their problem is sui generis, the solution can hardly be otherwise.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
*Dan Azzi is an Advanced Leadership fellow at Harvard University. He previously served as chairman and chief executive officer at Standard Chartered Plc's Lebanon-based subsidiary.

Khamenei’s Principle for Iraq, Lebanon: Change is Forbidden
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/November 07/2019
Linking the revolutions in Iraq and Lebanon with regional plots and developments is a corrupt thinking. This is what the internal situation in both countries says, as well as the opinions, attitudes, and actions that accompany and describe these situations.
But the corrupt thinking stems from a corrupt consciousness, a conspiratorial consciousness mixed with a deep desire to use both countries and their events in regional conflicts.
In the revolutionary situations of Iraq and Lebanon, theories of all kinds cannot hide a blatant Iranian role, not in a conspiratorial sense, but in a sense that seeks to be objective. It can be demonstrated in Hassan Nasrallah’s words and deeds, as in Ali Khamenei’s tweets.
Tehran, which has a tense relationship with its territory and with the world, cannot act as a state that respects its borders, nor does it have the characteristics to work within the conditions of peace.
Change in Iraq, as well as in Lebanon should be rejected, because, according to the Iranian point of view, these two countries are strategic locations for Iran. In war and tension, sacrificing a war position becomes a luxury that the commander of warriors cannot afford.
This explains events in the Arab Mashreq since international concerns have arisen over Iran’s nuclear program. For example, in the summer of 2003, the IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution requiring Tehran to “immediately and completely cease” its uranium enrichment activities, to sign the Additional Protocol to the NPT, and to allow immediate “unconditional” inspection of Iranian nuclear facilities. In 2004, the extension of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud’s tenure was a means to insist on excluding any change in Lebanon.
The same desire, but to a greater extent, was that of the Syrian regime that was appalled by the US invasion of Iraq: the same year, in 2004, Al-Qamishli rebelled against Assad’s rule, and UN Resolution 1559 was passed to make Lebanon a normal country.
The most flagrant and dangerous example was the involvement of Iran and Hezbollah in suppressing the Syrian revolution. Change is forbidden within the Iranian spheres of influence. It is forbidden as long as Tehran is at war or in tension. Tehran, by its very nature, is always in this situation.
With differences in size and importance, we fall on the same principle in previous imperial experiments.
In modern Egyptian history, there is the “February 4, 1942” incident, when the English forced King Farouk to hand over the government to the leader of Al-Wafd, Mustafa al-Nahas. They did so out of fear of a government that would be sympathetic to the Axis during World War II, thus to prevent those from benefiting from Egypt’s strategic positions and the Suez Canal.
The Soviet empire knew more than one experiment: Hungarian reformist demands in 1956 and the Czechoslovakian demands in 1968, which were suppressed by the tanks of the Warsaw Pact.
In Poland, in late 1981, General Wojciech Jaruzelski declared customary rulings in an attempt to crush the newly formed Solidarity Union. Later, in 1990, Jaruzelski apologized to the Poles for doing so. He said that he was forced to block the Warsaw Pact’s intervention.
The policy of rejecting the change in the imperial world was ruled by, at least since 1968, what became known as the Brezhnev Doctrine. This principle, which coincided with and justified the invasion of Czechoslovakia, argued that any threat to any socialist system, in any country of the Eastern camp, was a threat to the whole camp.
This is why the countries of the camp could face such threats with repression. Twenty years later, Mikhail Gorbachev renounced this principle, and the Warsaw Pact countries collapsed.
Iran’s situation with the Levant is not much different. The American retreat has indeed provided it with exceptional opportunities. But this is not enough. The problem that arises in Iraq first and then in Lebanon is that Iran cannot build alternative situations to those that it undermines.
It carries a penniless and beleaguered imperial project that succeeds in undermining and fails to build.
In addition to the problem of Iran, there is the problem of its wings, whether in Iraq or Lebanon. These wings want to seize power in their own countries and don’t want to do so at the same time. They own, control, but are not held accountable. Such a situation is always explosive, especially in the face of severe economic crises.
After standing up to other sectarian and ethnic forces, Iraq indicates that the dispute has reached the Shiite environment itself. In Lebanon, disharmony emerged for the first time between Hezbollah and its environment, and between the party and some of its allies.
This project, represented by its leadership in Tehran or its extensions in Baghdad and Beirut, is not open to politics. Whenever a thousand Iraqis or Lebanese gathered in a square, the Iranian-sponsored powers expressed fear and distress.
It is a situation that only survives in a margin between tension and violence, accompanied by economic decline: if this project prospers, the demands of the people calling for change go with the wind. The change will happen with the defeat of the principle of Khamenei.

Middle East: The Anti-Iran Revolution is Well Underway
كون كوغلين/معهد كايتستون: الثورة المضادة للثورة الإيرانية في مسارها الصحيح والفاعل في دول الشرق الأوسط
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/November 07/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/80308/80308/
The nationwide protests taking place in both Arab states [Lebanon and Iraq] are also driven by a burning desire to end Iran's blatant attempts to turn them into de facto fiefdoms of Tehran.
The protests, moreover, could not have come at a worse time for Iran, where the economy is in freefall as a result of the wide-ranging sanctions that have been introduced by Washington.
Local protesters are now making plain that their dislike for Iranian meddling in their affairs could soon spell the end for Tehran's ambition to become the region's dominant power.
The nationwide protests taking place in Lebanon and Iraq are driven by endemic government corruption and a burning desire to end Iran's blatant attempts to turn them into de facto fiefdoms of Tehran. Pictured: Anti-government demonstrators in Beirut, Lebanon, on November 3, 2019.
Iran's attempts to expand its malign influence throughout the Middle East have suffered a severe setback as a result of the unprecedented anti-government protests that have erupted in Lebanon and Iraq in recent weeks.
The most obvious source of discontent in these two key Arab states has been the endemic corruption that has taken hold in both Beirut and Baghdad; in both countries, it has been the prime motivation in persuading tens of thousands of demonstrators to take to the streets.
The desire to end corrupt practices and force the governments in Beirut and Baghdad to undertake a radical overhaul of their respective countries' governments is, though, only part of the story.
The nationwide protests taking place in both Arab states are also driven by a burning desire to end Iran's blatant attempts to turn them into de facto fiefdoms of Tehran.
Iran's attempts to seize control of the political agenda in Lebanon dates back to the early 1980s, when Iran established its Hezbollah militia in the southern part of the country to launch a series of terrorist attacks against Israeli forces operating in the area. Since then, Hezbollah -- with Iran's backing -- has gradually extended its influence in the country to the point where Hezbollah is now widely recognised as Lebanon's most influential political organisation.
Iranian interference in Iraq's affairs, by contrast, is of more recent provenance, and can be traced back to the sectarian violence that erupted throughout the country following the overthrow of the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003. More recently, Iran has been able to expand its influence in Baghdad by taking advantage of the recent campaign to defeat ISIS, where Iranian-backed Shia militias -- the so-called Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) -- fought against the predominantly Sunni militants who supported ISIS.
After defeating ISIS, the PMF militias have remained active in Iraq, thereby enabling Tehran to expand its influence in Baghdad.
Now, thanks to the determination and bravery of anti-government protesters, Iran's designs of regional domination in the Middle East are rapidly unravelling.
The most obvious sign that Iran is coming under intense pressure to protect its Middle East assets has been the appearance in Baghdad of Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). As the man who is personally responsible for exporting Iran's Islamic revolution throughout the Arab world, Mr Soleimani travelled to Iraq in a desperate bid to prevent the country's pro-Iran prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, from resigning.
Since anti-government protesters took to the streets last month, Mr Soleimani has been a frequent visitor to Baghdad. The day after the protests began, Mr Soleimani is reported to have chaired a meeting with top Iraqi security officials in Baghdad, a role that is normally fulfilled by the country's prime minister. The following day, more than 100 people were killed at the hands of unidentified snipers and members of Iran-backed militias such as the PMF.
Unfortunately for Iran, its strong-arm tactics have made little impression on the protesters, despite the fact that the death toll from the protests in Iraq now stands at around 250. Last Friday saw the biggest protests in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein, with thousands gathering in central Baghdad. Elsewhere, protesters attacked the Iranian consulate in the Shi'ite holy city of Karbala, where they scaled the concrete barriers surrounding the building before removing the Iranian flag and replacing it with an Iraqi one.
There have also been attacks on PMF militia bases in Nasiriyah and Diwaniyah, where 12 demonstrators were killed when the headquarters of the Iranian-backed Badr Organisation was set alight.
In Lebanon, meanwhile, there have been reports of Hezbollah fighters attacking peaceful protesters as Iran tries desperately to prevent its most important proxy in the Middle East from falling out of its orbit.
The protests, moreover, could not have come at a worse time for Iran, where the economy is in freefall as a result of the wide-ranging sanctions that have been introduced by Washington.
The sanctions mean that the ayatollahs have already had to cut back on their funding of proxy militias around the Arab world. Local protesters are now making plain that their dislike for Iranian meddling in their affairs could soon spell the end for Tehran's ambition to become the region's dominant power.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Are We Seeing A New Wave of Arab Spring Uprisings in 2019?
Michael Young/Carnegie/November 07/2019
A regular survey of experts on matters relating to Middle Eastern and North African politics and security.
Ishac Diwan | Chaire Monde Arabe at Paris Sciences et Lettres, professor at the Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris.
Definitely yes. As we enter the winter of 2020, this wave of public discontent is likely to engulf other countries. The main difference with the first wave in 2011 lies in the underlying economic conditions. Back in 2011, oil prices were at a peak and economies were growing at their fastest pace in decades. With the collapse in oil prices after 2014, the economic situation is now much more difficult. Growth has slowed, public debts have risen, and unemployment is higher. Ruling regimes now have fewer resources to finance their clientelism. So while a yearning for dignity fueled the earlier uprisings, today’s protests are propelled much more by hunger.
The second wave has learned lessons from the first: No longer content with displacing aging autocrats, protesters are targeting the deep state. They are avoiding getting divided along identity lines; and they are demanding the organization of meaningful new elections. The challenge for each country is to find a path toward a political and economic transition that can satisfy the street. So far, even democratizing Tunisia has not yet discovered a way forward. History is on the march again, but what comes next is anyone’s guess.
Rasha al-Aqeedi | Editor in chief of Irfaa Sawtak, nonresident fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute
Unemployment may have been the catalyst for the sporadic demonstrations and sit-ins throughout 2019 in Iraq. However, other events, such as the demotion of Lt. Gen. Abdulwahab al-Sa‘di of the elite Counterterrorism Service, and the government’s deadly response to peaceful protests on October 1, convinced a generation that has not yet seen stability or comfort that the status quo must end. Coupled with the familiarity of free speech and protests which, ironically, is largely due to democracy, Iraq’s Generation Z and millennials took to the streets to demand more than a better life. What they want is radical change. The post-2003 order which followed the U.S.-led toppling of Saddam Hussein’s brutal dictatorship failed to deliver a stable, secure, and prosperous Iraq, despite significant oil revenues. The new Iraq took pride in one aspect of democracy, which was the right to protest. So, when tens of unarmed protesters were killed by snipers deployed with Iranian advice and blessing, there was nothing left to show for.
Iraq’s youths are rejecting an entire political system that they perceive to be beyond redemption. The protests are not an “Arab Spring” nor are they part of a regional uprising wave. They reflect a very specific Iraqi context that is not found in Tunisia, Algeria, or Egypt. The protests did not initially begin against Iranian influence in Iraq, but bold expressions of anger toward the neighbor have become a defining characteristic of the uprising, one that could become a powder keg for either civil conflict or a brutal crackdown.
The protests in Baghdad and southern governorates have their parallels with Lebanon’s, but the fascist-like response of Iraq’s security apparatus and the high death toll, now approaching 300 people, make for a bleak outcome and bleaker future.
Mona Yacoubian | Senior advisor for Syria, the Middle East, and North Africa at the United States Institute of Peace
The Arab Spring never died. It just went dormant, overtaken by the brutality of events in Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Egypt. The roots of this second wave of mass protests hearken back to the 2011 Arab uprisings. Yet, they have spawned something different. Absorbing some of the lessons from the earlier uprisings, the 2019 protests have evolved. Ideally, they are cultivating a resistance to the darker, destructive forces that bedeviled their neighbors. In Lebanon and Iraq, demonstrators rail against sectarianism (a driver of the Syrian conflict), instead promoting a more vibrant national identity. In Sudan, a fragile power-sharing agreement between the military and civilian opposition emerged after months of mass protests that began over rising bread prices. However, the protests gathered enormous popular support and did not succumb (as in Egypt) to divisive ideologies, political rivalries, or even the use of force. They persisted. It is far from clear if this new season of protests will yield more sustainable and peaceful change, resilient to violence and chaos. Yet the “green shoots” of the 2019 uprisings offer some reason for hope.
Dalia Ghanem | Resident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center
The four countries that have witnessed waves of protests in 2019 are Algeria, Sudan, Iraq, and Lebanon—countries that stayed out of the “Arab Spring” in 2011. In these countries, people were still shaken by previous years of conflict and political violence. This is a new season of discontent, but this time the means employed are peaceful. There are three main reasons for this: Because people learned from their past and their neighbors; because they want to maintain their movement in time and attract more supporters nationally and internationally; and because they do not want to give their governments a chance to use repressive tactics against them and put an end to their mass demonstrations.
This new wave of protests is happening now because social discontent has been mounting for years and the same reasons that led to the 2011 uprisings are still present in the region. If I only take the case of Algeria, the drop in oil prices in mid-2014 led to a deterioration in the economic situation, and by 2019 the government was no longer able to buy social peace as it had in 2011.
Moreover, cosmetic reforms did nothing to address pressing issues such as unemployment, exclusion, and generalized corruption. Today, protesters want real and genuine change, and they do not trust mainstream political parties, the opposition, and the old guard to do it. This is why from Algiers to Beirut, the slogan is one and the same, in reference to the political class: “All of them, means all of them.”

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 07-08/2019
Iran Cancels Accreditation of UN Nuclear Inspector
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 07 November/2019
Iran said Thursday it had cancelled the accreditation of a UN nuclear inspector after she triggered an alarm last week at entrance to the Natanz uranium enrichment plant. The check at the entrance gate to the plant in central Iran had "triggered an alarm" raising concern that she could be carrying a "suspect product" on her, the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization said in a statement posted online. Iran resumed uranium enrichment at its underground Fordow plant south of Tehran on Thursday in a new step back from its commitments under a landmark 2015 nuclear deal. Engineers began feeding uranium hexafluoride gas into the plant's mothballed enrichment centrifuges in "the first minutes of Thursday", a statement said. The suspension of uranium enrichment at the long secret plant was one of the restrictions Iran had agreed to on its nuclear program in return for the lifting of UN sanctions.Iran's announcement on Wednesday that it would resume enrichment at the Fordow plant from midnight (2030 GMT) had drawn a chorus of concern from the remaining parties to the troubled agreement. Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia have been trying to salvage the hard-won deal since Washington abandoned it in May last year and reimposed crippling unilateral sanctions. They say Iran's phased suspension of its obligations under the deal since May makes that more difficult. The resumption of enrichment at Fordow is Iran's fourth move away from the deal.

Protesters block entrance to Iraqi port after brief resumption of operations
Agencies Thursday, 7 November 2019
Protesters blocked the entrance to Iraq’s Umm Qasr port on Thursday after a brief resumption of operations was reported, port sources said. Iraqi security forces have been ordered to enforce the law and arrest “saboteurs” who were blocking roads, an Iraqi army spokesman told reporters on Thursday. Security and oil sources had earlier reported that operations resumed at a port and an oil refinery in southern Iraq on Thursday after protesters left both areas, port officials. Anti-government demonstrators had blocked roads at Umm Qasr commodities port, halting operations for more than a week, and stopped fuel tankers at Nassiriya oil refinery on Wednesday, causing shortages in the south. The sources said the protesters had left but did not say why or how. At least three anti-government protesters were killed in clashes with security forces in southern Iraq on Tuesday, officials said, as authorities tried to reopen the country’s main port, which had been blocked by demonstrators for three days. Security and medical officials said a protester was killed and eight more were wounded in Umm Qasr, a key oil terminal on the Arabian Gulf. The Iraqi High Commission for Human Rights, a semi-official agency, said two people were killed and 23 wounded in clashes in the southern city of Nasiriyah. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief reporters, said security forces in Umm Qasr had been firing live ammunition and tear gas, and that protesters seized an armored vehicle.
Iraq has seen massive anti-government demonstrations in Baghdad and across the mostly Shia south since Oct. 25. Umm Qasr, on the Arabian Gulf, is Iraq’s main port used for oil exports and the import of goods. Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi has expressed support for the protesters’ demands and condemned violence on all sides while resisting calls to step down. He has called on the protesters to reopen roads so that life can return to normal, saying the disruptions caused by the protests are costing the country billions of dollars. He met with senior judicial and security officials at the Federal Police Headquarters late Monday to discuss ways to restore stability while preserving the right to protest and protecting private property, according to a government statement.

Four protestors killed after security forces use live gunfire in Baghdad
Staff writer, Al Arabiya/English Thursday, 7 November 2019
At least four protesters were killed and more than 35 others wounded in central Baghdad on Thursday after security forces used live gunfire to disperse anti-government demonstrations, Reuters reported citing police and hospital sources. The clashes took place near Shuhada bridge, the sources said. Security forces used on Thursday live fire against protesters on Baghdad’s Al-Rasheed Street, hours after protesters blocked a major port in Um Qasr, the Iraqi Observatory for Human Rights reported. More than 260 Iraqis have been killed since the start of October in the largest demonstrations since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. Protesters are demanding the overthrow of a political class seen as corrupt and beholden to foreign interests. The United Nations expressed its concern over the rising death toll and injuries during the ongoing protests in Iraq. “The Secretary-General expresses his serious concern over the rising number of deaths and injuries during the ongoing demonstrations in Iraq. Reports of the continued use of live ammunition against demonstrators are disturbing,” a UN spokesperson said in a statement. “The Secretary-General urges all actors to refrain from violence and to investigate all acts of violence seriously. He renews his appeal for meaningful dialogue between the Government and demonstrators,” the statement added.

Erdogan says US not fulfilling Syria deal ahead of Trump talks
Reuters, Istanbul/Thursday, 7 November 2019
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday the United States was not fulfilling its pledge to remove Kurdish-led forces from a Syrian border region and he will raise the issue when he meets President Donald Trump next week. A month ago, Turkey launched a cross-border offensive with allied Syrian forces against Kurdish-led forces after seizing control of a 120 km swathe of territory reached a deal with the United States to keep them out of that area. Erdogan is set to discuss implementation of the agreement with Trump in Washington on Nov. 13 after confirming that the visit would go ahead following a phone call between the leaders overnight. “While we hold these talks, those who promised us that the YPG...would withdraw from here within 120 hours have not achieved this,” he told a news conference, referring to a deadline set in last month’s agreement. Turkish officials had previously said Erdogan might call off the US visit in protest at US House of Representatives’ votes to recognize mass killings of Armenians a century ago as genocide and to seek sanctions on Turkey. After the deal with Washington, Ankara also reached an agreement with Moscow under which the Kurdish-led forces was to withdraw to a depth of 30 km along the entirety of the northeastern Syrian border with Turkey. But Erdogan said this deal had also not been fulfilled, with Kurdish-led forces still in the border strip, adding that he would hold talks with Putin soon on the issue.
Clashes in Syria
Speaking to reporters before leaving on a visit to Hungary, Erdogan said clashes in Syria were continuing, with 11 fighters from the Turkey-backed rebel Syrian National Army (SNA) killed on Thursday. “These terrorists are attacking the SNA, and the SNA is retaliating in kind. There are 11 martyrs from the SNA this morning. Many more were killed on the other side,” he said. Under the two bilateral deals, Ankara stopped its offensive in return for the withdrawal of the YPG. Turkish and Russian soldiers have so far held two joint patrols near the border to monitor implementation of their agreement.
Ankara considers the Kurdish-led forces a terrorist group because of its ties to militants who have fought an insurgency in southeast Turkey since 1984. US support for the YPG, which was a main ally in the fight against ISIS, has infuriated Turkey. Ankara began its offensive against the YPG after Trump announced an abrupt withdrawal of 1,000 US troops from northern Syria in early October. The US president has since said that some troops will continue to operate there. Late on Wednesday, the commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces said the group was resuming work with the US-led coalition against ISIS in Syria. “As a result of series of meetings with Coalition leaders, SDF is resuming its joint program of work with the Coalition to combat ISIS and securing the infrastructure of NE Syria,” Mazloum Kobani wrote on Twitter.

US says Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan reaffirm joint efforts to reach deal on dam
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Thursday, 7 November 2019
The foreign ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan agreed on Wednesday to work toward a comprehensive and sustainable agreement on the filling and operation of a massive dam project in Ethiopia by January 15, 2020, the US Treasury said. “The ministers reaffirmed their joint commitment to reach a comprehensive, cooperative, adaptive, sustainable, and mutually beneficial agreement on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and to establish a clear process for fulfilling that commitment in accordance with the 2015 Declaration of Principles,” the statement read.
The $4 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was announced in early 2011, as Egypt was in political upheaval following a popular uprising that toppled former President Hosni Mubarak. The dam is the centerpiece of Ethiopia’s bid to become Africa’s biggest power exporter, with a projected capacity of more than 6,000 megawatts. Ethiopia has said it will start filling the reservoir behind the dam in 2020, though construction has been hit by delays.
- With Reuters.

Iran moved uranium gas to Fordow site: UN watchdog
Reuters, Vienna /Thursday, 7 November 2019
Iran moved a cylinder or uranium hexafluoride gas to its Fordow site and connected it to centrifuges there in breach of its nuclear deal with major powers, the UN nuclear watchdog said on Thursday, but it made no mention of uranium enrichment. The International Atomic Energy Agency verified on Wednesday that the cylinder was connected to two cascades of centrifuges for passivation, “a preparatory activity conducted prior to enrichment,” an IAEA spokesman said in a statement. A more detailed IAEA report sent to member states and seen by Reuters said the other four cascades of centrifuges installed at Fordow - where enrichment and nuclear material are banned under the deal - “remained unchanged.”

Iraqi forces kill 10 protesters in Baghdad and Basra
Reuters, Baghdad/Friday, 8 November 2019
Iraqi security forces shot dead at least six anti-government protesters in Baghdad on Thursday and killed four others as they broke up a sit-in in the southern city of Basra, police and medical sources said. Scores more were wounded in the clashes as weeks of deadly violence in Iraq over protests against an entrenched political elite showed no signs of abating. Security forces used live fire against protesters near Shuhada Bridge in central Baghdad. Gunfire was used against demonstrators in Basra, the main source of Iraq's oil wealth, who had staged a days-long sit-in. Elsewhere in southern Iraq, dozens of protesters burned tires and blocked the entrance to the port of Umm Qasr, preventing lorries from transporting food imports, just hours after operations had resumed, port officials said. The Iraqi government has failed to find a way out of the biggest and most complicated challenge it has faced in years. The unrest has shattered the relative calm that followed the defeat of ISIS in 2017. A crackdown by authorities against mostly unarmed protesters has killed more than 260 people since demonstrations began on October 1 over lack of jobs, chronic power and clean water shortages, poor education and healthcare and corruption. Protesters, mostly unemployed youths, blame a political elite that has ruled Iraq since the toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003, and demand a complete overhaul of the political system. The economy is beginning to feel the pinch. Internet outages imposed by the government to try to stem unrest have hit the private sector, a central bank source said. The source said private banks in Iraq had recorded losses of some $16 million per day since the internet was first shut down at the beginning of October. Combined losses by the private banks and mobile phone companies, money transfer services, tourism and airline booking offices had averaged more than $40 million per day, the source said - almost $1.5 billion for Iraq in just over a month. Umm Qasr briefly resumed operations early on Thursday after most protesters cleared the area. But several dozen activists, relatives of a demonstrator killed during weeks of violence, then returned to block the main gate, port officials said. Umm Qasr receives most of the grain, vegetable oils and sugar that Iraq depends upon. Oil and security officials said operations resumed on Thursday at the nearby Nassiriya oil refinery, where protesters had stopped fuel tankers entering or leaving the day before. Oil production and exports have not been significantly affected by the unrest, oil ministry officials say. But the halting of fuel tankers that transport fuel from the Nassiriya refinery to regional gas stations caused fuel shortages across the southern Iraqi province of Dhi Qar. The refinery had recently been producing around half its capacity, oil officials said. The internet returned briefly in most parts of Iraq on Thursday but went out again after 1:00 pm local time (1000 GMT). The government says it is enacting reforms but has offered nothing that is likely to satisfy most protesters. Stipends for the poor, more job opportunities for graduates and pledges to punish a handful of corrupt officials have come too late for those demanding an overhaul of state institutions, a flawed electoral process and system of governance that has fueled endemic corruption, many Iraqis say.

Qatar, Turkey reaffirm desire for ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’
Staff writer, Al Arabiya/English Tuesday, 5 November 2019
Qatar and Turkey reaffirmed on Sunday their desire to scale up bilateral relations and create a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” Doha’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohamed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani tweeted following a ministerial meeting with Turkish officials. The Turkish delegation are in Doha to partake in a conference on Somalia sponsored by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). It was attended by Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu who on Sunday thanked the Emir of Qatar for his support of the Turkish military operation early last month against Kurdish militias in northeast Syria. Cavusoglu’s comments came following a meeting with Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani in Doha, on the sidelines of the conference. This comes following the Qatari-Turkish Business Forum organized by Qatar’s ministry of commerce and the Turkish ministry of trade, which was launched on Friday in Ankara by Prime Minister and Minister of Interior Sheikh Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa al-Thani and Turkish Vice-President Fuat Oktay who reiterated their commitment toward increased levels of trade and investment.

UN Security Council welcomes Riyadh Agreement between Yemeni parties
Staff writer, Al Arabiya/English Thursday, 7 November 2019
Members of the UN Security Council said they welcomed the signing of the “Riyadh Agreement” between the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council brokered by Saudi Arabia, according to a statement. “[Members] welcomed the mediation efforts of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, recognizing that this agreement represents a positive and important step towards a comprehensive and inclusive political solution for Yemen,” the statement read. The statement said that UNSC members also reiterated their support for the efforts of UN Special Envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, to work with the Yemeni parties “to pave the way for the resumption of comprehensive and inclusive negotiations.”Yemen's internationally-recognized government and southern separatists signed an agreement on Tuesday to end a power struggle in the south of Yemen that Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman hailed as a step toward a wider political solution to end the multifaceted conflict.

Pompeo commends Saudi Arabia’s role in facilitating deal between Yemen govt, STC
Staff writer, Al Arabiya/English Wednesday, 6 November 2019
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed gratitude toward Saudi Arabia’s role in facilitating an agreement between the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council (STC), according to a statement by a State Department spokesperson. “Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo met today with Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir. The Secretary thanked the Minister for Saudi Arabia’s continued partnership with the United States across many regional and bilateral issues,” Spokesperson Morgan Ortagus said in a statement. “They agreed that this was an important step to move toward a comprehensive political solution to the conflict in Yemen. The Secretary and the Minister also discussed recent developments in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, and the need to continue countering the Iranian regime’s destabilizing behavior,” Ortagus added. The “Riyadh Agreement” was signed on Tuesday between the Yemeni government and the STC. The main points of the deal included the return of the legitimate government to Aden within seven days, the unification of all military formations under the authority of the Ministries of Interior and Defense, and the formation of an efficient government made up equally between the north and south of Yemen.

Iraqi forces kill 10 protesters in Baghdad and Basra
Reuters, Baghdad/Friday, 8 November 2019
Iraqi security forces shot dead at least six anti-government protesters in Baghdad on Thursday and killed four others as they broke up a sit-in in the southern city of Basra, police and medical sources said. Scores more were wounded in the clashes as weeks of deadly violence in Iraq over protests against an entrenched political elite showed no signs of abating. Security forces used live fire against protesters near Shuhada Bridge in central Baghdad. Gunfire was used against demonstrators in Basra, the main source of Iraq's oil wealth, who had staged a days-long sit-in. Elsewhere in southern Iraq, dozens of protesters burned tires and blocked the entrance to the port of Umm Qasr, preventing lorries from transporting food imports, just hours after operations had resumed, port officials said. The Iraqi government has failed to find a way out of the biggest and most complicated challenge it has faced in years. The unrest has shattered the relative calm that followed the defeat of ISIS in 2017. A crackdown by authorities against mostly unarmed protesters has killed more than 260 people since demonstrations began on October 1 over lack of jobs, chronic power and clean water shortages, poor education and healthcare and corruption.Protesters, mostly unemployed youths, blame a political elite that has ruled Iraq since the toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003, and demand a complete overhaul of the political system.
The economy is beginning to feel the pinch.
Internet outages imposed by the government to try to stem unrest have hit the private sector, a central bank source said.
The source said private banks in Iraq had recorded losses of some $16 million per day since the internet was first shut down at the beginning of October. Combined losses by the private banks and mobile phone companies, money transfer services, tourism and airline booking offices had averaged more than $40 million per day, the source said - almost $1.5 billion for Iraq in just over a month. Umm Qasr briefly resumed operations early on Thursday after most protesters cleared the area. But several dozen activists, relatives of a demonstrator killed during weeks of violence, then returned to block the main gate, port officials said. Umm Qasr receives most of the grain, vegetable oils and sugar that Iraq depends upon. Oil and security officials said operations resumed on Thursday at the nearby Nassiriya oil refinery, where protesters had stopped fuel tankers entering or leaving the day before. Oil production and exports have not been significantly affected by the unrest, oil ministry officials say. But the halting of fuel tankers that transport fuel from the Nassiriya refinery to regional gas stations caused fuel shortages across the southern Iraqi province of Dhi Qar. The refinery had recently been producing around half its capacity, oil officials said. The internet returned briefly in most parts of Iraq on Thursday but went out again after 1:00 pm local time (1000 GMT). The government says it is enacting reforms but has offered nothing that is likely to satisfy most protesters. Stipends for the poor, more job opportunities for graduates and pledges to punish a handful of corrupt officials have come too late for those demanding an overhaul of state institutions, a flawed electoral process and system of governance that has fueled endemic corruption, many Iraqis say.

US targets al-Qaeda leaders in West Africa and Mideast
The Associated Press, Washington/Thursday, 7 November 2019
The Trump administration is trying to turn up pressure on three senior al-Qaeda leaders in Africa and the Middle East. The State Department placed the head of the main al-Qaeda affiliate in Mali on a terrorism blacklist. It also offered rewards for information leading to the location of two top members of al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen. The sanctions are against Amadou Kouffa for attacks in Africa’s Sahel region. The action announced Thursday freezes any assets he may have under US jurisdiction. A reward of up to $6 million was also offered for information about the emir of Yemen's Shabwah province for his role in al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The US is offering up to $4 million for a Sudanese AQAP leader who once worked with Osama bin Laden.

Yemen’s President Hadi meets separatist leader after deal ends power struggle
Reuters, Cairo/Thursday, 7 November 2019
Yemen’s President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi met the head of the Southern Transitional Council on Thursday, in their first meeting since his government and the separatists signed an agreement to end a power struggle in the south. In the meeting with Aidarus al-Zubaidi in Saudi Arabia, Hadi praised the efforts to reach the deal, Yemeni state news agency SABA reported. The stand-off had opened a new front in the more than four-year-old war and fractured a Saudi-led coalition battling the Iran-backed Houthi militia that ousted the government of Hadi from the capital, Sanaa, in the north in late 2014.

US-led naval coalition opens command center in Bahrain to protect oil tankers
Reuters, AFP/Thursday, 7 November 2019
The US-led naval coalition in the Gulf, established in response to a series of attacks on oil tankers, opened a command center in Bahrain on Thursday, the US Fifth Fleet said in a statement. The attacks heightened the risk of disruption to Gulf oil exports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States blamed the attacks on Iran. Tehran denied the accusations. The coalition is known as the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC). The coalition, aimed at warding off the perceived threat to the world’s oil supply, has been in the making since June. Iran, which has denied any responsibility for the mystery attacks, has put forward its own proposals for boosting Gulf security that pointedly exclude outside powers. Bahrain, which hosts the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, joined the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC) in August. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates followed suit in September. Australia and Britain are the main Western countries to have agreed to send warships to escort Gulf shipping. The newest member, Albania, joined on Friday. Vessels will be escorted through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic chokepoint at the head of the Gulf and the main artery for the transport of Middle East oil.
Vice Admiral Jim Malloy, commander of US Naval Forces in the Middle East, said Operation Sentinel is a defensive measure aimed at protecting Gulf waters. “While Sentinel’s operational design is threat-based, it does not threaten,” he said during a ceremony at the IMSC’s command center.
“We employ capable warships on patrol, but there is no offensive line of effort in this construct, other than a commitment to defend each other if attacked. “Our commitment to the region isn’t short-lived, it is enduring, and we will operate as part of Sentinel for as long as it’s needed -- as long as the threat looms.”Most European governments have declined to participate in the naval coalition, fearful of undermining their efforts to save a landmark 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, which was badly weakened by Washington’s withdrawal last year. Animosity between Tehran and Washington has soared since President Donald Trump abandoned the deal and reimposed crippling US sanctions. On May 12, the UAE said four commercial oil tankers - two Saudi, one Emirati and one Norwegian - had been targeted by “acts of sabotage” in waters off its coast. Washington and Riyadh blamed Tehran, which denied involvement.
A month later, the Kokuka Courageous was hit and around the same time another tanker in the area, the Norwegian-owned Front Altair, was damaged by three explosions, according to the Norwegian Maritime Authority. They were transiting through the Strait of Hormuz towards the Indian Ocean. Then on September 14, drone strikes targeted two key Saudi oil facilities onshore, temporarily knocking out half of the kingdom’s oil production. The attacks were claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels who are battling a Saudi-led coalition, but Washington and Riyadh blamed Iran, saying the strikes were carried out with advanced missiles and drones.

Jared Kushner says US partnerships strengthened under Trump
Matthew Amlôt, Al Arabiya/English Tuesday, 29 October 2019
Senior adviser to US President Donald Trump Jared Kusher said on Tuesday that America's controversial international trade disputes are part of a plan to rebalance imbalances inherited from America's supremacy after World War II, during a panel at the Future Investment Initiative (FII).
Trade has been a persistent global challenge throughout 2019 as China and the US have engaged in a tit-for-tat trade war with escalating tariffs. According to Kushner the origins of the trade dispute go back to the Second World War. “America was by far the wealthiest country in the world and the whole notion that was created as a world order was that America should figure out a way to protect a lot of the world and then also do disproportionate market access with everyone, so a lot of these countries ravaged by war could build up,” said Kusher. He said that the trade situation should have been rebalanced in the 1980’s, but wasn't and discussed the subsequent negative impact on the US economy and employment. “You have a lot of very wealthy countries now that have asymmetric market access with America and that has caused a lot of our middle-class manufacturing jobs to leave. Over 70,000 factories in America have closed which has led to an erosion of a lot of working-class manufacturing jobs,” said Kushner, adding that China's membership in the World Trade Organization in 2001 accelerated the impact. Kushner said that the US administration has come to an understanding with China on where the relationship is headed. Kushner was featured in a session moderated by the Chairman, CEO, and Co-Founder of US asset management firm Blackstone, Stephen Schwarzman, at the third edition of the FII held in Riyadh. Kushner said that he thinks there is “a lot of positive potential” for solving global trade problems, adding that partnerships have strengthened under US President Donald Trump’s tenure.

France’s Macron says NATO experiencing ‘brain death’
AFP, Paris /Thursday, 7 November 2019
French President Emmanuel Macron says he believes NATO is undergoing “brain death,” lamenting a lack of coordination between Europe and the United States and aggressive actions in Syria by key member Turkey, in an interview published Thursday. “What we are currently experiencing is the brain death of NATO,” Macron told the Economist magazine in an interview. “You have no coordination whatsoever of strategic decision-making between the United States and its NATO allies. None. You have an uncoordinated aggressive action by another NATO ally, Turkey, in an area where our interests are at stake,” he added. Asked whether he still believed in the Article Five collective defence guarantee of NATO’s treaty, Macron answered, “I don’t know,” although he said the United States would remain an ally. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in Leipzig ahead of the 30th anniversary on Saturday of the fall of the Berlin Wall that is seen by many as NATO’s crowning achievement through its four-decade-long role blunting Soviet expansionism, said the alliance was perhaps one of the most important “in all recorded history.”Macron has said there is a lack of strategic coordination between European allies on the one hand and the United States and Turkey, with NATO’s second largest military, on the other. While France has traditionally had an ambivalent role in NATO, taking no part in its strategic military planning from 1966-2009 despite being a founding member, Macron’s comments - a month before NATO’s December 4 summit in London - were unexpected. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and many allies want to project an image of unity at the summit at a time of rising Chinese military might and what NATO leaders see as Russian attempts to undermine Western democracies through cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns and covert operations.
Cold war relic?
NATO was shaken by Trump’s portrayal of it as being in crisis at the last summit in Brussels in July, and its image of unity took a hit when Turkey defied its allies to launch a military incursion into Syria on Oct. 9. Macron had earlier decried NATO’s inability to react to what he called Turkey’s “crazy” offensive and said it was time Europe stopped acting like a junior ally when it came to the Middle East. In his interview, he also said the United States was showing signs of “turning its back on us”, as demonstrated by Trump’s sudden decision last month to pull troops out of northeastern Syria without consulting the allies, the French leader said. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said he was overreacting. “The French president has found rather drastic words to express his views. This is not how I see the state of cooperation at NATO,” she told a news conference alongside Stoltenberg in Berlin.
Stoltenberg told Reuters that NATO had overcome differences in the past, citing the 1956 Suez Crisis and the 2003 Iraq War. Once seen by some as a Cold War relic until Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, NATO needs all its 29 allies on side as it confronts militant attacks in Europe and seeks to defend against the threat of ballistic missiles from Iran to North Korea. Macron lauded nascent European defense integration initiatives independent of the United States. His so-called European Intervention Initiative has so far brought together nine willing militaries ready to react to crises near Europe’s borders without NATO or the United States. The European Union has also recently launched its own multi-billion-euro defense plans to develop and deploy military assets together after years of spending cuts that have left European militaries without vital capabilities and reliant on Washington.
“The European Union cannot defend Europe,” Stoltenberg said in a speech in Berlin. Since taking office in 2017, Trump has accused European NATO allies of not shouldering their fair share of the cost of defending Europe. He demanded they double NATO’s defense spending goal of 2% of economic output, set in 2014. They retorted that security is not just about spending targets, but all have since raised their defence outlays, though some remain short of the 2% objective. In a change of policy, German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said on Thursday Berlin would spend 2% of its economic output on defense by 2031, belatedly reaching the goal set by NATO leaders five years ago. But with its military bases in Europe and nuclear warheads stored in five NATO countries, the United States remains the ultimate protector of European democracies against an increasingly assertive post-Soviet Russia.
In one sign of ongoing cooperation, the US Air Force flew B-52 bombers from the US mainland to train with British and Norwegian allies for almost a month in October at a time when China and Russia continue to modernize their militaries.

Erdogan: Al-Baghdadi’s inner circle trying to enter Turkey
The Associated Press, Ankara/Thursday, 7 November 2019
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday that members of slain ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s “inner circle” are trying to enter Turkey from Syria. Erdogan also added the number of people with family ties to al-Baghdadi who’ve been caught by Turkey “is close to reaching double digits.”
Erdogan’s comments Thursday were his second effort in as many days to publicize Turkey’s push to catch ISIS members who were close to al-Baghdadi. Turkey is facing criticism that its military offensive to drive Syrian Kurdish-led forces from northeast Syria would allow for an ISIS resurgence.
Erdogan and Turkish officials revealed Wednesday that Turkish police detained one of al-Baghdadi’s wives and a daughter last year. This week, Turkish authorities said they captured al-Baghdadi’s elder sister, her husband, daughter-in-law and five children in Syria.

Amman: ‘Stabbing Attack’ on Tourists in Jerash
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 07 November/2019
The Jordanian authorities arrested Wednesday a man after stabbing four Jordanians, including a security officer, a tour guide and a bus driver, in addition to three Mexican tourists and a Swiss woman in Jerash, north of the country. Jordanian tour guide Zouheir Zreiqat witnessed the attack and told AFP that it happened "just before midday when around 100 foreign tourists" were at the site. "A bearded man in his twenties wearing black and brandishing a knife started to stab tourists," Zreiqat said. He said others started to shout for help and he, along with three other tour guides and three tourists managed to stop the assailant. "We took the knife from him. He stayed silent, without saying a word until the police arrived and arrested him," Zreiqat said. Health Minister Saad Jaber confirmed that eight people had been wounded and had been transported to the hospital for treatment. The minister said that four of the victims "suffered moderate to severe wounds, while the other four had minor injuries." "A Mexican tourist in serious condition and a Jordanian tour guide" were transferred via helicopter to the King Hussein Medical Center in Amman, he added. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi telephoned his Swiss counterpart Ignazio Cassis and deputy Mexican foreign secretary Julian Ventura to assure them Jordan was caring for their country's citizens and that they would be kept abreast of the results of investigations. Moreover, an official from the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs denounced the stabbing, wishing the injured a speedy recovery. It was not the first time a Jordanian tourist attraction has witnessed an attack. In December 2016, in Karak, 10 people were killed in an attack claimed by ISIS that also left 34 wounded. Four violent incidents struck the country the same year, including a suicide attack in June claimed by ISIS that killed seven Jordanian border guards near the frontier with Syria.

Guterres Condemns Live Fire at Iraqi Protesters as 'Disturbing'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 7 November, 2019
United Nations chief Antonio Guterres denounced as "disturbing" reports that Iraqi security forces have fired live ammunition at anti-government protesters in Baghdad, as mass rallies continued to rock the capital and southern Iraq.
The demonstrations broke out on October 1 in anger over corruption and unemployment but have morphed into demands that the entire ruling system be upended. The violence has left nearly 280 dead, with security forces resuming their use of live rounds on Monday after nearly two weeks of using volleys of tear gas, but no firearms, to push back protesters. Guterres expressed his "serious concern over the rising number of deaths and injuries during the ongoing demonstrations in Iraq". "Reports of the continued use of live ammunition against demonstrators are disturbing," he said in a statement Wednesday. He called for all acts of violence to be investigated "seriously" and renewed his appeal for "meaningful dialogue between the government and demonstrators". In Baghdad, protesters had been concentrated in Tahrir Square but have increasingly spilled over onto nearby bridges leading to the western bank of the Tigris. For days, they have faced off against security forces on the Al-Jumhuriyah bridge, which links them to the Green Zone where government offices and embassies are based. They then spread to Al-Sinek, which ends near the Iranian embassy, and Al-Ahrar, near other government buildings. A group of protesters Wednesday tried to cross a fourth bridge, Al-Shuhada, but were met with live rounds from security forces, an AFP correspondent said. Several protesters were wounded. "The riot police hit us with batons on our heads and we threw rocks at them," said Mahmoud, a 20-year-old protester being treated by medics after trying to cross Al-Shuhada bridge. "But then they started firing live rounds on people."Even the tear gas usage has been deadly, however, with medics and rights group Amnesty International saying security forces appeared to be firing the canisters directly at protesters. A spokesman for Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi said security forces were instructed to use force if protesters got close to important government buildings including the central bank. On Wednesday, at least four people died of wounds sustained in earlier protests, medical sources told AFP.

Trump Optimistic About Outcome of Renaissance Dam Discussions
Washington - Hiba al-Qudsi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 7 November, 2019
US President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he had met with top representatives from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to help resolve their long running dispute on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. On his official Twitter account, Trump said the meeting went well and discussions will continue. The US Treasury hosted Wednesday a ministerial meeting including foreign ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan and World Bank President David Malpass. The parties agreed to work toward resolving their dispute over the filling and operation of a massive dam project in Ethiopia by Jan. 15, 2020. Sources stressed that the US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, was keen during the meeting to provide the appropriate atmosphere to bridge the views, resume negotiations and find ways to resolve differences on the main points raised by the Egyptian side. Cairo fears the filling of the dam reservoir on the Blue Nile tributary will restrict already scarce supplies of water from the Nile, on which the country is almost entirely dependent. Sudan is also downriver from the project. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry expressed readiness for Egyptian-Sudanese-Ethiopian cooperation in projects to export electricity. He said this could be achieved through the electricity linkage projects between Egypt and Sudan, from which Ethiopia could benefit in exporting electricity to Europe in the future. Meanwhile, Ethiopia's position seemed very cautious and adhering to Addis Ababa’s right to achieve development and generate electricity from the dam established on the Blue Nile. It refused to compromise its right to achieve the aspirations of its development plans to promote its economy. Sources from the Ethiopian embassy pointed out that the difference with Egypt is related to technical issues rather than political matters. They noted that Ethiopia has been showing more flexibility during the negotiations and is reviewing the Egyptian request to fill the dam in a period of four to seven years instead of two years in order not to affect the two downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan.

Morocco Worried About Return of ISIS Militants
Rabat - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 7 November, 2019
Morocco’s Interior Ministry described the return of terrorist militants from hotbeds of tension in Syria, Iraq and Libya as “worrying” for the country and one of the most important challenges facing the concerned countries. It stressed that efforts exerted in the Kingdom has enabled it to uncover 13 terrorist cells until late October that were working on recruiting young Moroccans to fight in areas where militant groups are active. The Ministry issued a report and distributed it to members of its committee and the House of Representatives on the occasion of presenting the sub-budget for 2020.According to the report, terrorism phenomena affects all the regions in the world and threatens the countries’ security and stability, including Morocco.Terrorist organizations are calling on the returning militants to infiltrate their “home countries to carry out terrorist operations, the Ministry explained.
This contributes to targeting stability, disrupting the economic movement and encouraging the establishment of sleeper cells to revive the so-called ISIS “caliphate.”The report noted that the Ministry has “continued to work during this year with the highest levels of vigilance and preparedness, contained in the national plan to combat terrorism, both at the level of the territorial administration and security interests.”The Moroccan Central Bureau of Judicial Investigation (BCIJ) was able to dismantle a number of terrorist networks, including thwarting an ISIS affiliated terrorist group active in Morocco and Spain, the report added. It said the Kingdom has accumulated a significant experience in the fight against extremism and terrorism, thanks to approaching a proactive and precautionary security policy in the fight against the terrorist threat. In coordination with the security services in the field of combating terrorism, the Ministry pointed to adopting “a policy that changes according to the terrorist groups’ strategies taken.”“These groups receive financial resources and continues to use extremist ideologies and violent speeches through social media and modern sites among the fragile population.”In March, the Moroccan authorities deported a group of eight Moroccan nationals, who were in the conflict zones in Syria. This step came in line with its contribution to the international efforts related to combating terrorism.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 06-07/2019
Is It Even Possible to Change the Regime in Iraq?
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/November 07/2019
The Middle East has indeed been shaken by revolutions of late, but no new regimes have risen to power in any of the affected states. Leaders left and governments fell, but the regimes remained strong in Egypt, Tunisia, and Sudan. In Libya and Yemen, state institutions completely collapsed, and so far both countries are still without alternative systems and affective states. In the past few weeks, the world has watched the protests in Iraq with some surprise because they were not expected to be so robust and sustained in so many cities, and with such huge numbers of people involved. Even though telephone lines and the internet were blocked, and notwithstanding a media counter-campaign and premeditated murders, the protests have continued.
Despite the protesters’ efforts, they are unlikely to topple the regime. The protesting masses can force the government to resign and change some political decisions. Still, even if the demonstrators fail to overthrow the Iraqi regime, they have already brought down the “halo” of the religious leadership and the prestige of state institutions and humiliated the representative “symbols” of Iran’s influence. Also, the unrest has united the demands and the regions. Today, the protesters occupy squares and block roads, and troops close the bridges to prevent them from advancing on government buildings. So they gather, instead, at oil refineries and the country’s only port, Umm Qasr.
They want to access sensitive state facilities, but will not be allowed to do so as the regime has enough weapons to ensure its survival at all costs, with the Iranian regime in support. The latter has been present, through its leadership and militias, since the beginning of the popular uprising, participating in the repression and killings, and even directing the Iraqi security services. That is why protesters went to the Iranian consulate and tried to burn it. They did so because they believe that those who participated in the shootings were Iranian functionaries.
Even though they have targeted oil facilities and the port of Umm Qasr, I do not think the demonstrators embrace the idea of toppling the entire state system of governance, because that idea is dangerous and almost impossible. However, if the government continues to ignore the demands of the protesters and the killings escalate, their demands could change to include the overthrow of the whole regime, which is not currently on the table.
In the eyes of the protesters, the government seems powerless and not in control of its security services or of the armed militias that receive their salaries from the Iraqi government but take their orders from Iran. As Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has said, the resignation of the government is the easiest thing to promise protesters because it can do nothing else to satisfy them. The overthrow of the government is simple, but the alternative is no better. Parliament could be given more power, but it is worse than the government because the militias and corruption are also present within its ranks.
Well, what about handing power to regulatory bodies, such as the Commission of Integrity or the Supreme Anti-Corruption Council? These, too, have emerged from the same state institutions that are viewed with suspicion and distrust.
The commission has accused the former head of the main branch of Rasheed Bank of involvement in the disappearance of 13 billion Iraqi dinars ($10 million), but he has not explained what happened to the money. Meanwhile, the start of the protests coincided with the announcement by the council of the dismissal of 1,000 government employees over their involvement in corruption. Even these measures were not convincing enough to appease or silence the protesters.

Do Not Support China's Huawei, Cripple It Instead
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/November 07/2019
China, with control of 5G, will be in a position to remotely manipulate the world's devices. In peacetime, Beijing could have the ability to drive cars off cliffs, unlock front doors, and turn off pacemakers. In war, Beijing could paralyze critical infrastructure.
There is no mystery to how Beijing thinks it will grab control.... The Chinese will use Huawei Technologies.... Huawei is a dagger aimed at the heart of America, and as the unnamed adviser... suggests, the threat is a mortal one.
There are various strategies for meeting China's 5G challenge, but the most direct one is crippling Huawei. The Trump administration has taken steps to do so, but now that effort is on the verge of collapse.
The Commerce Department looks set to support that dangerous Chinese firm. US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross is thinking too small. The United States, instead of trying to make sales, should be stopping everyone from selling to Huawei.
The Trump administration should be forcing others — Japan, South Korea, Taiwan — to make a choice: sell to Huawei or sell to the world's largest market, America's.... If they should not be buying Huawei, then Americans should not be supplying that Chinese company either.
Let us put Huawei out of business, not support its efforts to harm us.
Huawei, built on stolen U.S. technology, is the world's leading telecom-equipment manufacturer and is fast becoming the world's 5G provider.
"A prominent Republican who advises President Donald Trump called America's 5G strategy 'the biggest strategic disaster in U.S. history,'" wrote China-watcher David Goldman recently.
Many people will regard that as an exaggeration, but America's failure to have a 5G strategy will almost certainly prove to have historic consequences.
"5G" is shorthand for the fifth generation of wireless communication.
"In the very near future, dominating the wireless world will be tantamount to dominating the world," wrote Newt Gingrich in Newsweek in February. That is not an exaggeration.
Why not? With speeds 2,000 times faster than existing 4G networks, 5G will permit near-universal connectivity to homes, vehicles, machines, robots, and everything plugged into the Internet of Things (IoT).
Moreover, with just about everything connected to everything else China will filch the world's information. That is not a theoretical concern. For instance, nightly from 2012 to 2017, China surreptitiously downloaded data from the Chinese-built-and-donated headquarters of the African Union in Addis Ababa.
Chinese parties have already been criminally taking American information, intellectual property and data for decades, worth hundreds of billions of dollars a year. This continuing crime is essential to China's implementation of numerous industrial policies, especially the controversial "Made in China 2025" initiative, a decade-long program to achieve dominance in technology sectors, including 5G.
Theft is by no means the full extent of the harm. China, with control of 5G, will be in a position to remotely manipulate the world's devices. In peacetime, Beijing could have the ability to drive cars off cliffs, unlock front doors, and turn off pacemakers. In war, Beijing could paralyze critical infrastructure.
"China's game," Goldman wrote in an e-mail, "is to control the broadband, and then the e-commerce, and then the e-finance, and then all the tech startups servicing the 'ecosystem,' and then the logistics." As he told me this year, "The world will become a Chinese company store."
There is no mystery to how Beijing thinks it will grab control of the store. The Chinese will use Huawei Technologies.
Huawei, built on stolen U.S. technology, is the world's leading telecom-equipment manufacturer and is fast becoming the world's 5G provider. As Goldman writes, "Huawei has signed equipment agreements with every telecom provider on the Eurasian continent."
Beijing, since Huawei's founding in 1987, has been subsidizing sales of the company's equipment and otherwise promoting its wares. No prizes for guessing why. As Senator Marsha Blackburn told Fox News in July, Huawei is Beijing's "mechanism for spying." For instance, Beijing pilfered data from the African Union through Huawei servers located in the building the Chinese donated.
So, Huawei is a dagger aimed at the heart of America, and as the unnamed adviser quoted by Goldman suggests, the threat is a mortal one.
There are various strategies for meeting China's 5G challenge, but the most direct one is crippling Huawei. The Trump administration has taken steps to do so, but now that effort is on the verge of collapse.
In fact, the Commerce Department looks set to support that dangerous Chinese firm. On Sunday, in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Bangkok, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said his department will "very shortly" grant exemptions from its Entity List designation to allow sales to Huawei.
"We're in good shape, we're making good progress, and there's no natural reason why it couldn't be," Ross told the business channel.
In May, Ross's Commerce Department added the Chinese telecom-equipment provider to its Entity List, so that American businesses needed prior approval to sell or license to Huawei the products and technology covered by U.S. export regulations. Since then, Commerce has granted two 90-day waivers from these prohibitions. The second waiver will expire November 19.
Commerce, it appears, will not issue another across-the-board waiver but will instead grant exemptions to specific companies. Ross said he has received 260 waiver requests.
Granting waivers would be a grave mistake. "The United States," Brandon Weichert of The Weichert Report told me, "is letting China off the hook."
Ross and others argue that the individual exemptions are justified because Huawei can obtain items either from China itself — Huawei has developed its Kirin chipset, said to be comparable to Qualcomm products — or from other countries. He argues that U.S. companies might as well be the ones making the sales. At issue are semiconductors from principally Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.
Ross is thinking too small. The United States, instead of trying to make sales, should be stopping everyone from selling to Huawei.
America has the power to cut off all sales. Japan and South Korea are formal military allies of the United States, and Taiwan, although no longer a treaty partner, is even more dependent on Washington for its security. Because Huawei poses a critical threat to everyone, it is not clear why Washington should not pull out all the stops to get Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese suppliers to cut off the Chinese company.
Taipei says Washington has not asked Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the giant chip supplier, to end sales to Huawei. The issue, therefore, is why has the United States not even made a request.
Up to now, the Trump administration has been trying to persuade, sometimes nudging friends and partners. American officials have, for instance, said they might reduce intelligence sharing with countries maintaining Huawei gear in their 5G networks.
That is too mild. Given the importance of the issue, the Trump administration should be forcing others — Japan, South Korea, Taiwan — to make a choice: sell to Huawei or sell to the world's largest market, America's. Last year, America's merchandise trade deficit with Japan was $67.2 billion. The comparable figures were $17.8 billion for South Korea, and $15.2 billion for Taiwan.
U.S. officials have been telling other countries not to buy Huawei 5G gear, but if they should not be buying Huawei, then Americans should not be supplying that Chinese company either.
Let's put Huawei out of business, not support its efforts to harm us.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and a Gatestone Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Mexico-based Jordanian Smuggler of Six Yemenis Sentenced in Texas
Todd Bensman/The Federalist/November 07/2019
Originally published under the title "Mexico-Based Smuggler Trafficked Six People From Terrorist Hotbed Over U.S. Border."
Moayad Heider Mohammad Aldairi was sentenced to three years in prison for smuggling at least six Yemenis over the U.S. southern border.
Often lost in the discussion of hundreds of thousands of Central Americans pouring over the southern border is that migrants from Muslim-majority countries where Islamist terrorist groups operate arrive among them almost every day. The corporate media hates talking about this. But most border-crossers show up without any identification and little vetting, giving rise to U.S. national security efforts to stifle this human traffic for fear of terrorist infiltration, a threat about which I have written extensively.
Every so often, smugglers of migrants from countries of national security concern — known in government parlance as "special interest aliens" — are caught and brought to American justice. Such was the case last week, when a federal judge in a Del Rio, Texas, courtroom empty of news reporters sentenced a Mexico-based Jordanian smuggler named Moayad Heider Mohammad Aldairi to three years in the federal penitentiary on a guilty plea.
His case is interesting because it briefly illuminates a fascinating kind of American counterterrorism-immigration operation reporters must do acrobatic yoga to avoid covering. The Aldairi case also demonstrates why this exotic sort of human smuggling presents a national security threat to the homeland and has spawned James Bondian foreign efforts to take other Aldairis offline.
Who Were the Yemenis Aldairi Smuggled?
Before a complex, multinational Immigration and Customs Enforcement-Homeland Security Investigations dragnet snagged Aldairi last year at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York, he ran a business that in 2017 smuggled over the Mexico-Texas border at least six Yemenis for whom he was charged. He likely brought in many more than that.
A map from an April 2019 Justice Department press conference in San Antonio, TX, shows Aldairi's smuggling route.
That at least six unknown and unvetted Yemenis were smuggled over the Texas border from Mexico should be a recognizable problem on its face, although it's often denied as perfectly innocent immigration that nativist right-wingers baselessly play up. Yemen is embroiled in a civil war in which one major armed faction, which controlled sizable chunks of territory, is al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
Throughout the 2018 prosecution of Aldairi, U.S. prosecutors wouldn't say whether any of the Yemenis that Aldairi smuggled through Latin America were part of al-Qaeda or their victims. But San Antonio Express-News reporter Guillermo Contreras reported this spring that "law enforcement sources" told the newspaper "some of the six Yemenis" that successfully crossed into Texas were on the U.S. terror watch list. Federal law enforcement sources with direct knowledge of the investigation have told me the same.
Where they are today and how serious a threat the Yemenis posed is only narrowly known, although my sources told me that at least three of the six remain inside the United States. I'm guessing those would be cooperating witnesses against Aldairi and that one or more of the other three were the terror suspects.
Special Interest Alien Smugglers Are Sophisticated
They would hardly be the first known or suspected terrorists to have reached the U.S. southern border. It's a fairly regular occurrence, and that's why special interest alien smuggling worries homeland security officials on a nonpartisan basis, as evidenced by President Barack Obama's most senior appointees taking strong action to shut it down in 2016. Watch-listed suspects and those not watch-listed arrive annually among at least several thousand special interest aliens (SIAs) who show up every year at the southern border.
SIA smugglers often are multilingual, hold dual citizenships, and know how to corrupt government bureaucrats.
Aldairi is typical of SIA smugglers in that they are pretty sophisticated internationalists not easily replaceable when taken offline. He is a Jordanian national with dual Mexican citizenship, dual residencies, and multiple languages. In addition to Arabic, Aldairi spoke Russian, Spanish, and English.
Prior court prosecutions of SIA smugglers show many hold dual citizenships, are multilingual, and have managed to corrupt government bureaucrats in key locations. This combination of skillsets is necessary to run intercontinental smuggling businesses that require air travel and crossing potentially dozens of borders over vast distances and time frames. So when American authorities take out one of these guys, not too many replacements are in line to take over.
Aldairi was fairly clever in ways we should expect. For example, he provided hard hats and reflective yellow vests to his Yemeni clients so they would look like construction workers who belonged on the Texas side of the Rio Grande near Eagle Pass.
U.S. Homeland Security Agencies Are Targeting the Threat
U.S. homeland security agencies have so seriously regarded illicit migration to U.S. land borders from Muslim-majority countries that after 9/11, the U.S. government passed legislation that required smuggling interdiction programs to take out people like Aldairi. One of the main efforts to reduce the threat was the deployment of ICE-Homeland Security Investigations (ICE-HSI) all over Latin America, backed by the intelligence efforts of other outfits, such as the U.S. Southern Command. That's who got Aldairi.
The last year has been particularly good for ICE-HSI doing this work, although you wouldn't know it from corporate reporting. The most recent damage was doled out when Brazilian federal police in Sao Paulo rolled up three notorious smugglers: a Somali, an Algerian, and an Iranian based in Brazil.
They were responsible for transporting immigrants from countries of national security concern to the U.S. southern border for years, including, according to Brazilian media, "two Somalis arrested by the US police over suspected terrorism." Hence the homeland security importance of targeting special interest alien smuggling networks such as these. Some others include:
Two Mexico-based Bangladeshi smugglers who worked closely with co-conspirators in Brazil and beyond to smuggle in large numbers of Bangladeshis, one of the most prevalent nationalities being moved over the U.S. border. One smuggler worked at the Guatemala border, while the other was based in northern Mexico. On Thursday, the Department of Justice announced the arrest of a third co-conspirator in Brazil who fed migrants to a conveyor belt that constantly moved South Asians through Central America and Mexico.
A former Afghan interpreter for the U.S. Army, New Jersey resident Mujeeb Rahman Saify, was charged with crimes related to him facilitating the smuggling of at least two other Afghans to the Texas border, one of whom chose to enter this way because he had been terminated from Army service "for being a security risk based on his association with a foreign intelligence service." Both of the smuggled Afghans actually made it over the Texas border.
A Brazil-based Somali smuggler, Mohamed Abdi Siyad, a.k.a. "Hassan," was accused in a criminal complaint of transporting many dozens of Somalis and other Horn of Africa migrants — Islamic extremists potentially among them — from Africa through Latin America and on to both the California and Texas borders. Hassan reportedly is not in U.S. custody yet, but because of the ICE-HSI pressure, he is out of service in Brazil and the subject of an extradition process to retrieve him from Canada (probably a long story there).
A notorious Costa Rican smuggler known as "Mama Africa," who I'm told worked with the Brazilian smugglers and Hassan, was finally arrested after years of moving migrants from Muslim-majority nations as an important link in the smuggling chain. She and her family and associates moved migrants regarded as higher risk to Honduras by boat, then to Guatemala and Mexico.
The Aldairi Case Is a Win for U.S. Counterterrorism
It's unclear why U.S. prosecutors threaded the needle around Aldairi's smuggling of watch-listed Yemenis into Texas; U.S. Attorney John Bash of the Western District of Texas declined an interview request. They could have sought a more serious material support charge or threw a terrorism enhancement request to the judge.
U.S. Attorney John Bash
Soon Aldairi will be a free man, probably back in Mexico with his wife and son in Monterrey in a couple of years with time served. But still, this is a win for our side in counterterrorism, and it's not just me saying why.
In a prepared DOJ press release, Bash showed he does understand what this was about. "This case vividly illustrates how border security is a key component of national security," he said in the release. "We simply must know the identities of every individual crossing our southern border, particularly those who are nationals of countries where terrorist organizations operate freely."
*Todd Bensman is a fellow at the Middle East Forum and a senior national security fellow for the Center for Immigration Studies. Bensman previously led counterterrorism-related intelligence efforts for the Texas Intelligence and Counterterrorism Division (ICD) for nearly a decade.

Iran’s support for terrorism has surged in 2019
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/November 07, 2019
The US State Department last week released its annual Country Reports on Terrorism document. The report describes the Islamic Republic as the “world’s worst state sponsor of terrorism” in 2018. It also lists Iran’s staunch ally, the Syrian government, as a state sponsor of terrorism.
While the report looks at Iran’s activities in 2018, it is important to examine how its behavior has changed this year, as there has been a significant surge in Iran’s support for terrorist activities.
The Iranian regime has been involvedin and subsequently sanctioned for numerous terrorist and destabilizing activities in the Middle East in 2019. This has included the harassmentof ships in the Strait of Hormuz, such as the seizing of the UK-flagged Stena Impero by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and attacks against four ships: Two Saudi oil tankers, a Norwegian-flagged vessel and one flagged in Sharjah, which were anchored off the coast of the UAE.
The Iranian regime has also continued to smuggleweapons and provide military, financial, intelligence and advisory assistance to proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah, and Iraqi Shiite militias including Kata’ib Hezbollah. This has contributed to a greater propensity for Houthi rocket launches aimed at civilian targets in Saudi Arabia, the deployment of thousands of Hezbollah foot soldiers in Syria, and the regular bombardment of southern Israel by Iranian-funded Hamas rockets.
For example, on April 2, April 8, May 20, June 20 and June 30, Saudi Arabia intercepteddrone and missile attacks launched by the Iran-backed Houthis toward civilian targets. On May 14, a Houthi drone attack damagedtwo oil pumping stations near Riyadh. On June 12 and June 23, Abha International Airport was targeted, with one civilian killed and more than 40 injured. On Aug. 25, the Houthis fired10 ballistic missiles at Jizan airport, causing dozens to be killed or injured.
Finally, although the Houthis also claimed responsibility for a major drone and missile attackon the oil processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais on Sept. 14, it is believed the Iranian regime was actually responsible. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said: “Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia while (President Hassan) Rouhani and (Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad) Zarif pretend to engage in diplomacy. Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply. There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.”
As a result of Iran’s destabilizing behavior, six Gulf nations recently joined the US in imposingsanctions on several Iranian entities.
Meanwhile, Tehran reportedly still sheltersmembers of the terrorist group Al-Qaeda and continues to facilitate the group’s operation in the region.
But Iran’s terrorist, illicit and belligerent activities have not been limited to the Middle East. Its terrorism in Europe has continued and ultimately pushed the EU to level sanctions against Iranian entities and hold Tehran accountable for its actions. The Council of the European Union made an unprecedented decision in January, declaringthat it had “decided, with the unanimous agreement of all member states, to include on the European list of individuals, groups and entities involved in acts of terrorism, one entity and two individuals responsible for plotting to attack a meeting of the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq, a group that advocates the overthrow of the Iranian leadership.”
The EU had resisted imposing sanctions on Iran due to the nuclear deal that was reached in 2015. However, Tehran’s destructive behavior on European soil ultimately forced the bloc to put pressure on the theocratic establishment. If Tehran does not address its terrorist and destructive activities in Europe, the Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok also warned that “further sanctions cannot be ruled out.”
As a result of Iran’s destabilizing behavior, six Gulf nations recently joined the US in imposingsanctions on several Iranian entities.
In addition, due to reports of Iran transporting military equipment and personnel to Middle East war zones via commercial flights, Italy stated last week that it will ban the Iranian company Mahan Air from operating in the country from mid-December. Germany and France also banned flights by Mahan Air this year.
In Albania, the General Police Director Ardi Veliu revealedlast month that an active terror cell linked to the Iranian Quds Force had been detected by the country’s security institutions. Veliu said a planned attack in Albania by Iranian government agents was foiled in March.
Finally, Iran has also been behind major cyberattacksagainst foreign governments and private companies in 2019.
There has been a significant surge in terror activities committed by Iran and the terror groups it supports this year. This should be a warning to the international community and it is incumbent on world leaders to hold the Iranian regime accountable.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Using American Soft Power to Counter Russian Influence in Iraq
Anna Borshchevskaya/The Washington Institute/November 07/2019
Moscow is beating Washington at the reputational game in Iraq, raising the need for greater U.S. engagement on education and media outreach rather than just security issues.
When Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov toured Iraq last month—his first visit in five years—he came armed with an entourage of energy representatives and a bevy of ideas for increasing Russian investments in Iraq. His trip is a signal that the United States will face heightening competition for influence there from Moscow.
This challenge is especially important in the context of U.S. withdrawal from Syria, which is not only damaging American credibility and raising the likelihood of an Islamic State resurgence, but also increasing Baghdad’s susceptibility to foreign partners who do not share U.S. interests. In that sense, engaging more deeply in Iraq is crucial to countering both Iranian and Russian influence.
This engagement needs to go beyond offering counterterrorism assistance and pressuring Baghdad on economic issues and reform. To be sure, continued cooperation on those fronts is necessary to help build up the Iraqi security forces, improve U.S. relationships with them, and address the persistent corruption plaguing the public and private sector. Yet Russia is currently beating the United States at the reputational game in Iraq by faring better at soft power projection.
In January, for example, Lavrov claimed that approximately 4,000 Iraqis were studying in Russian universities, and the two countries are now looking to increase such educational initiatives. Although it is difficult to confirm the accuracy of Lavrov’s numbers, what matters most is that Moscow is publicly emphasizing its connections with Iraq beyond energy and arms sales.
Meanwhile, according to the Institute of International Education’s Fall 2018 “Open Doors” report, only 1,438 Iraqi students were studying in the United States as of last year. Even that number was likely overstated, since it relied on voluntary reporting from American institutions and likely included many diaspora students who no longer call Iraq home or have no plans to return there. As one U.S. official familiar with this issue told the author, actual Iraqi student visa application numbers are “depressingly low.”
Greater exposure to U.S. educational opportunities would help Iraqis move away from a system that has traditionally relied more on memorization than independent critical thought. It would also help them build personal ties to America. The United States still has strong connections to Iraqi Kurds in particular, so it should build on this experience.
Another good option is investing in a stronger U.S. presence at the American universities in Baghdad and Sulaymaniyah, whether through public or private-sector efforts. One goal would be to attract more Iraqis to study there—a far easier option for many students than going to the United States, and one that would likely convince more graduates to stay in Iraq. The American brand remains stronger than Russia’s on this front; indeed, Moscow is not talking about building a Russian university in Iraq.
Better U.S. media messaging is needed as well, in part to shine a light on Russia’s authoritarianism, foreign interventionism, rampant corruption, and other ills rather than the false image Moscow projects. RT Arabic is the media outlet perhaps most responsible for cultivating this image across the Middle East, and most Iraqis see it as a legitimate source of information rather than a propaganda arm. For instance, it helps spread Moscow’s routine lies that Russia consistently fought the Islamic State and deserves substantial credit for rolling back the terrorist group’s territorial gains. The Kremlin also cultivates a positive image by repatriating children of Russian citizens who joined the group in Iraq and Syria.
In September, the Iraqi government suspended the local office of U.S.-funded Arabic media outlet Alhurra, but Iraqis can still access its programming. The United States could also engage Iraq through other services such as BBC Arabic and social media. The latter medium is especially important to younger Iraqis, and Moscow has already invested heavily in trying to reach Arabic-speaking youths through social media.
If Russia’s growing presence in Iraq goes unchallenged, it will likely worsen the country’s problems with corruption, repression, and weapons proliferation. Lavrov may say the right things about fighting terrorism when he visits Baghdad, but Moscow’s track record of scorched-earth military tactics and arms deals without prohibitions on secondary sales will only increase instability in and around Iraq. Moreover, if pro-Iranian forces continue to win posts inside the Iraqi government, they may provide an even greater opening for Moscow given Tehran’s regional partnership with Russia. Such a scenario would only increase the chances of losing Iraq to resurgent authoritarianism.
*Anna Borshchevskaya is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and author of its recent study “Shifting Landscape: Russia's Military Role in the Middle East.”

Erdogan in Washington: Setting the Agenda for a Pivotal Visit
Soner Cagaptay, Anna Borshchevskaya, Conor Hiney, Dana Stroul, and Charles Thépaut/The Washington Institute/November 07/2019
The Trump administration needs to treat the meeting as a chance to frankly address congressional concerns and defuse a host of hot-button issues, from Syria policy to F-35 production.
When President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Trump sit down for their planned face-to-face in Washington on November 13, their conversations will take place against a backdrop of increased U.S.-Turkish tensions on foreign policy issues, along with concerns about a potential repeat of what happened last time he was in town. During Erdogan’s May 2017 visit, his security detail was involved in a violent brawl with protestors in Sheridan Circle, an incident that significantly damaged Turkey’s image in the United States. Given the current mood in Washington, he could face even larger protests this time around, risking a public diplomacy debacle. More important, Congress may soon issue sanctions targeting Ankara if he fails to mollify angry legislators. To minimize these risks, President Trump should use his strong rapport with Erdogan to iron out differences on the following issues.
TURKEY’S INCURSION INTO SYRIA
On October 9, Ankara sent troops into north Syria to undermine the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG), an offshoot of the U.S.-designated Turkish terrorist group the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Previously, the United States had partnered with the YPG and its eventual Kurdish-Arab coalition, the Syrian Democratic Forces, to battle the Islamic State since 2014.
As the main territories in the IS “caliphate” crumbled in 2017, U.S. officials began working with Ankara on a plan to create a “safe zone” in northeast Syria and relocate the YPG away from the Turkish border. Many in Washington are now angry at Erdogan for ordering an incursion that upsets those plans, which would have allowed the United States and Turkey to work together in the area without letting Russia and the Assad regime in. On October 28, the House of Representatives voted for legislation to punish Turkish military officials who have taken part in the incursion and block the sale of weapons their forces might use in Syria. The bill will now be taken up by the Senate for potential passage. Anger toward Turkey is rising within parts of the executive branch as well, with the Defense Department opposing the incursion.
Despite Ankara’s move and Trump’s simultaneous decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria, the United States still has a deep interest in making sure that counterterrorism operations continue in the northeast, as well as addressing the root causes of IS and finding a political solution to end the war. The latter tasks entail working with Turkey to pressure the Assad regime, whose continued control over Syria will help IS recruit even more cadres as an underground insurgent group.
Now that the United States has satisfied Ankara’s main demand—stepping aside for Turkish operations against the YPG—the Trump administration’s priority in talks with Erdogan and other officials should be removing the most radical elements among Turkey’s Syrian proxies, designing inclusive local governance structures in areas where Turkey operates, and protecting minority rights. The two governments should also coordinate their diplomatic actions regarding the UN-led constitutional committee process in Syria, since leaving Turkey to stand alone in support of the political opposition would give even greater leverage to the Assad regime and Russia.
One limitation is that President Trump is holding a significantly weaker hand with Ankara than even a month ago, a result of his abrupt withdrawal orders and the growing doubts about U.S. staying power. Nevertheless, he should make use of his remaining leverage and personal affinity with Erdogan, pressing him to take responsibility for two important tasks that can be carried out with U.S. and European support: namely, checking any major IS resurgence, and preventing the Assad regime and its allies from instrumentalizing the terrorist group’s continued presence in Syria.
TURKEY’S ROLE IN F-35 PROGRAM
This year, Ankara continued with its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems despite repeated U.S. warnings that the deal could compromise the security of American military systems in Turkey. In retaliation, the Pentagon took steps to kick Ankara out of the F-35 fighter jet program, sending U.S.-based Turkish military personnel home shortly after announcing the country’s removal from the program on July 17. For now, Turkey is still a major F-35 parts supplier, with eight of its companies manufacturing over 900 parts and remaining the sole provider for landing gear and missile interface unit sources. Yet these industrial relationships will end by March 2020 as acquisition chains shift to the United States.
Turkey has a limited window to threaten production by stopping exports, but that would only temporarily affect production, while likely destroying the country’s chances of ever being readmitted into a program that it first joined as a founding member. If Ankara chooses that path, Washington would probably counter with sanctions affecting the current operations and readiness of multiple U.S.-made systems on which Turkey relies. This kind of punch/counterpunch would be extraordinarily damaging to the relationship’s long-term health.
Whatever the case, combined congressional and Pentagon pressure will likely preclude Turkey’s readmission into the F-35 program anytime soon, so Erdogan will look to Russia for alternative solutions. Moscow has reportedly offered multiple fourth- and fifth-generation fighter options to Ankara, any of which would deepen the NATO-Turkey wedge.
BROADER RUSSIAN ISSUES
Although President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials have expressed reservations about Turkey’s Syria incursion, the White House’s withdrawal decisions have further entrenched Moscow’s coveted reputation as a supposedly reliable mediator that can talk to all sides in the Middle East. As part of this broader geostrategic game, Russia has been gradually drawing Ankara into its sphere of influence in recent years.
Erdogan and Putin share an affinity for each other as strongman presidents, and the failed 2016 coup in Turkey gave Putin an opening to court his counterpart more deeply. Previously, Ankara viewed Russia as its historical nemesis and a regional bully. Although these ingrained sentiments have hardly disappeared, the failed coup allowed Moscow to play on Erdogan’s domestic fears, Ankara’s regional isolation, and Putin’s habit of sowing discord within NATO, leading the two governments to steadily deepen their cooperation. For instance, with all eyes on Turkey’s cross-border incursion, few noticed Moscow and Ankara’s recent agreement to begin trading in their national currencies. Russia is also building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant.
The relationship is not an equal one, however. Putin has far more leverage over Erdogan than the other way around, from longstanding ties with the PKK, to an economic relationship skewed in Moscow’s favor (Turkey greatly relies on Russian natural gas and the influx of Russian tourists), to growing Russian information operations inside Turkey via outlets such as Sputnik.
Even so, Putin’s recent moves carry some risks and challenges. For one, Russian military police have been patrolling the north Syrian town of Manbij abutting areas now controlled by Turkish-backed forces, raising the risk of accidental clashes between them. Meanwhile, a May poll found that 55 percent of the Russian public wants to end their country’s Syrian involvement altogether. Yet the intervention does not appear to be a high-priority issue for them at present, so Putin likely has significant domestic leeway to continue interfering in Syria.
U.S. CONGRESSIONAL AGENDA
U.S. legislators were notably unified in their opposition to the administration’s troop withdrawals from northeast Syria and perceived acquiescence to Turkish military operations against the Syrian Kurds. In their view, these operations have harmed civilians, forcibly changed demographics to push Kurds out, and enabled conditions for violent extremists to thrive.
On October 16, highlighting the bipartisan nature of this sentiment, the House voted overwhelmingly (354 to 60) to pass a resolution calling on Turkey to “act with restraint” in Syria. The resolution also condemned recent developments as giving new life to IS while emboldening the Assad regime and Russia.
On October 29, the House overwhelmingly passed another measure (403 to 16) threatening sanctions against Turkish officials involved in the incursion. While it is unlikely to get through the Senate without significant modifications, that chamber seems ready to pick its own fights with Turkey. For example, one recent Senate bill calls for a report assessing the viability of relocating U.S. strategic assets from Incirlik Air Base. Adding to the tensions, the House also overwhelmingly approved the nonbinding Armenian genocide resolution last month, despite shelving the vote for years.
Indeed, Congress is keen on differentiating itself from the White House’s handling of relations with Erdogan. Yet legislators need to be aware that any further sanctions would likely push Ankara closer to Moscow.
CONCLUSION
Thus far, Erdogan has found ways of leveraging Trump and Putin against each other to maximize Turkish gains in Syria. After obtaining Trump’s assent for the cross-border incursion, he brokered a similar deal with Putin at an October 22 meeting in Sochi. Yet his Washington trip will require a different approach: namely, building confidence with Congress and government agencies beyond the White House. More important, his security detail must avoid confronting protestors again. The visit will be considered a success if it does not add yet another layer of disagreement and discontent to bilateral relations.
For his part, President Trump is eager to maintain his good relations with Erdogan while giving the appearance of responding to concerns voiced by other U.S. policymakers. Following Turkey’s incursion, the White House issued rather soft sanctions against Ankara on October 14, targeting the assets of a few cabinet ministers. Yet it quickly lifted those sanctions on October 23 after securing a Turkish ceasefire in Syria.
Even so, the Trump-Erdogan relationship seems to be one of the few bilateral channels still in good working order at a time of acute policy differences and eroding confidence between institutions in both countries. Policymakers should therefore consider how best to address their concerns via this channel.
*Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow at The Washington Institute and author of the book Erdogan’s Empire: Turkey and the Politics of the Middle East. Anna Borshchevskaya is a senior fellow at the Institute and author of its recent paper “Shifting Landscape: Russia’s Military Role in the Middle East.” Lt. Col. Conor Hiney (USAF) is a military fellow at the Institute. Dana Stroul, the Institute’s Kassen Fellow, previously served as a senior staff member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Charles Thepaut, a resident visiting fellow at the Institute, has served as a French diplomat in Syria and other posts.