English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese
Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 30/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.may30.20.htm
News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Bible Quotations For today
You have heard that it was said, “You shall love
your neighbour and hate your enemy.”But I say to you, Love your enemies and pray
for those who persecute you
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew
05/43-48:”‘You have heard that it was said, “You shall love your neighbour and
hate your enemy.”But I say to you, Love your enemies and pray for those who
persecute you, so that you may be children of your Father in heaven; for he
makes his sun rise on the evil and on the good, and sends rain on the righteous
and on the unrighteous. For if you love those who love you, what reward do you
have? Do not even the tax-collectors do the same? And if you greet only your
brothers and sisters, what more are you doing than others? Do not even the
Gentiles do the same? Be perfect, therefore, as your heavenly Father is
perfect.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 29-30/2020
Lebanon Records Four New Coronavirus Cases
Hasan 'Satisfied' over Decline in Coronavirus Infections
Cypriot Court Upholds Hizbullah Suspect's U.S. Extradition on Money Charges
Aoun Asks Cabinet to Reconsider Decision on Salaata Power Plant
Scuffles at Interior Ministry after Protesters Attacked in Ain el-Tineh
Government Agrees to Extend UNIFIL Mandate
Lebanon among 29 Nations whose Citizens Can Visit Greece from June 15
Diab Visits Army Barrack in Eastern Border
Central Bank: Negotiations Ongoing with IMF
Bassil: States Can’t Be Established by Encouraging Crime
Mustaqbal Lashes Out at Bassil: We Don't Sneak Criminals under Intl. Deals
Hezbollah Backs Mechanism for Appointing Top Officials, Bassil Rejects it
Lebanon’s Economy Minister Announces Plan to Subsidize Basic Food Products
Lebanon’s Berri Warns Government Not to Engage in Political Dispute
Caught in between: Syrians seeking to return from Lebanon stuck in buffer zone
Anna Ahronheim on Hezbollah's Terror Army/Marilyn Stern/Middle East Forum
Radio/May 28/2020
Psychological resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic: is it
attainable?/Christy-Belle Geha/Annahar/May 29/2020
Deciphering Hezbollah chief Nasrallah’s rhetoric: Resistance is no longer a
priority/Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/Friday 29 May 2020
From the coronavirus frontlines: Lebanon’s hotline volunteers work around the
clock/Emily Lewis/Al Arabiya/May 29/2020
Reforms to judiciary, electricity remain major hurdles for Lebanon to receive
IMF aid/Wael Taleb, Al Arabiya/May 29/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
May 29-30/2020
U.S. Cop who Killed Black Man Detained, Charged with 3rd-Degree Murder
Trump Says U.S. 'Terminating' Relationship with WHO
Trump to Curb China Students, Strip Hong Kong Privileges
Russia’s energy minister discusses trade, investment with Iranian counterpart
ISIS calls Iraq prime minister ‘American agent,’ calls for more attacks
Iran’s exports to India fall over 94 percent in first quarter of 2020
Major attack on Israel’s water systems thwarted: Cyber chief
Trump's denounced tweet adds fuel to protesters' fire
The Iraq Report: Pro-Iran MPs demand Saudi 'reparations' for suicide bombers
Cyprus Approves EastMed Pipeline Agreement
Palestinian Authority Welcomes Any Initiative to Stop Annexation Plan
OPEC+ Output Cuts Likely to be Extended Until End of 2020
Venezuelans may soon suffer the bad fortune of closer ties to Iran/Con
Coughlin/The National/May 29/2020
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on May 29-30/2020
Their Cause Remains Alive/Akram Bunni/Asharq
Al Awsat/May 29/2020
China is Sending Mixed Signals/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/May 29/2020
The Pandemic is Exposing the Limits of Science/Ferdinando Giugliano/Bloomberg/May
29/2020
The aftermath of Qassem Soleimani's death and his daughter's rise to prominence/Hollie
McKay/Fox News/May 29/2020
Is America Kadhimi’s Friend?/Robert Fordi/Asharq Al Awsat/May 29/2020
The Old and New Persian Empires/Eliora Katz/Newsweek/May 29/2020
The Syrian Constitutional Committee Is Not About the Constitution/Charles
Thépaut/The Washington Institute.
Russia's Arctic Empire/Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/May 29/2020
Kim Jong Un Returns to Preside Over Central Military Commission/David
Maxwell/Mathew Ha/FDD/May 29/2020
COVID-19 and the U.S. Air Force/Andrea Stricker/Major Liane/Trixie” Zivitski/FDD/May
29/2020
Understanding China’s Latest Move Against Hong Kong/Thomas Joscelyn/FDD/May
29/2020
Question: "What does the Bible say about
racism?/GotQuestions.org/May 29/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published
on May 29-30/2020
Lebanon Records Four New Coronavirus
Cases
Naharnet/May 29/2020
Lebanon on Friday recorded four new coronavirus cases, which raises the overall
tally to 1,172, the Health Ministry said. Three of those infected are residents
and one is a repatriated expat, the Ministry added. It said the local cases were
recorded in the Beirut suburb of al-Kafaat and the Akkar town of Jdeidet al-Qaytaa,
noting that the repatriated expat resides in Ashrafieh.
Hasan 'Satisfied' over Decline in Coronavirus Infections
Naharnet/May 29/2020
Health Minister Hamad Hasan announced Friday that he is “satisfied” over the
decline in the numbers of coronavirus cases in the country. He added that the
reopening of the airport and shopping malls hinges on the numbers of infections
over the next two weeks and whether the decline will continue. “As long as we
are facing a global pandemic, the airport requires special arrangements related
to its reopening, especially as to the number of infections that might arrive
through it,” the minister went on to say. Lebanon on Friday confirmed only four
coronavirus cases. It had witnessed a major spike in infections in recent days.
Cypriot Court Upholds Hizbullah Suspect's U.S. Extradition on Money Charges
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 29/2020
Cyprus' supreme court on Friday upheld an order to extradite a suspected
Hizbullah member to the U.S. on money laundering charges, official media said. A
five-judge bench unanimously dismissed an appeal against a decision by a lower
court in September 2019 to extradite the man, identified only by his surname
Diab, the Cyprus News Agency said. The suspect is wanted by authorities in
Florida for alleged money laundering crimes. According to the extradition
papers, the charges related to money laundering in excess of $100,000 (90,000
euros), conspiracy to money launder, the transfer of unlicensed money and
illegal use of wireless communication. The court said the suspect conspired with
individuals in 2014 to launder drug money. Diab was arrested at Larnaca airport
in Cyprus when he arrived from Lebanon in March 2019. Police apprehended him
when they found there was a U.S.-issued warrant for his arrest. The supreme
court ruled he will remain in detention until his extradition can be arranged by
the justice ministry.
Aoun Asks Cabinet to Reconsider Decision on Salaata Power Plant
Naharnet/May 29/2020
President Michel Aoun on Friday asked Cabinet to “reconsider its decision” after
it decided in a previous session not to set up a power plant in the Salaata
area, to the dismay of the Free Patriotic Movement. Aoun asked Cabinet to
“reconsider the decision taken in a previous session as to the electricity plan,
which had stipulated the need to set up three production plants to secure the
ability to provide a 24/24 power supply,” the Presidency said. “Carrying on with
this plan represents a necessity for Lebanon and also for the negotiations with
the international institutions,” the president told Cabinet during a session at
the Baabda Palace. Prime Minister Hassan Diab meanwhile said that Cabinet is
“committed to its Policy Statement as to the electricity plan and to the
resolutions of the previous government taken on April 8, 2019 and October 21,
2019, which mentioned the sites where the power plants should be set up.”
“Cabinet considers that its resolution on May 14, 2020 is part of the
implementation of the electricity plan and does not contradict with it,” he
added.
Scuffles at Interior Ministry after Protesters Attacked in
Ain el-Tineh
Naharnet/May 29/2020
Scuffles erupted Friday evening between anti-government protesters and riot
police outside the Interior Ministry in Sanayeh. The National News Agency said
the confrontation broke out after police tried to push the protesters away from
the area. “Security forces managed to push them back to the intersection leading
to Hamra Street, as protesters insisted to stay at the spot they retreated to,
with some of them lying on the ground to express rejection of what happened,”
NNA added. The demonstrators had headed to the Interior Ministry to protest what
they called an attack on them by Parliament Police outside Speaker Nabih Berri's
residence in Ain el-Tineh. Online videos showed several of the protesters' cars
with smashed windshields and windows and at least one injured demonstrator.
Activists said a number of female protesters were also beaten up.
Anti-government protesters have rallied outside the houses of several
politicians in recent days. The politicians included Free Patriotic Movement
chief Jebran Bassil, Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat and MP
Jamil al-Sayyed.
Government Agrees to Extend UNIFIL Mandate
Associated Press/Naharnet/May 29/2020
The Lebanese government agreed on Friday to extend the mandate of the U.N.
peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon for another year, the information
minister said. The extension of the peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, comes
as Israel is calling for major changes in the way the mission operates on the
ground in southern Lebanon. Israel is demanding that it have access to all sites
and freedom of movement and that it report back to the U.N. Security Council if
it is being blocked. The decision to extend the term of UNIFIL also comes amid
rising tensions along the Lebanon-Israel border in recent weeks.
Earlier Friday, Israeli troops opened fire toward a shepherd on the edge of the
Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms, Lebanon's state-run National News Agency
reported, adding that the man was not hurt. Earlier this month, Israeli troops
shot and wounded a shepherd in a nearby area, saying he crossed the border.
Information Minister Manal Abdul Samad told reporters after a Cabinet meeting
that the government has agreed to extend the term of the U.N. force until Aug.
31, 2021. The announcement came two days after Prime Minister Hassan Diab
visited UNIFIL's headquarters where he described the presence of the force in
the volatile area as a necessity. The government's decision comes amid the
backdrop of a war of words between Israeli and Lebanese officials, including
Lebanon's Hizbullah, over the mandate of UNIFIL. The force has been deployed in
southern Lebanon since an Israeli invasion in 1978. The quibble over the UNIFIL
mandate comes up every year before the mandate is typically renewed in the
summer.
Lebanon among 29 Nations whose Citizens Can Visit Greece
from June 15
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 29/2020
Greece said Friday it would reopen its airports in Athens and Thessaloniki to
arrivals from 29 countries from June 15, the start of the tourist season.
Visitors would be allowed to fly into Greece from 16 EU countries, including
Germany, Austria, Denmark, Finland, the Czech Republic, Baltic countries, Cyprus
and Malta, the tourism ministry said in a statement. But countries hardest hit
by the coronavirus pandemic -- such as France, Spain, Britain and Italy -- were
not on the list. Outside the European Union, holidaymakers from Switzerland,
Norway, and neighboring Balkan countries such as Albania, Serbia and North
Macedonia will be allowed to land at Greece's main airports from June 15. The
list also includes Australia, Japan, Israel, Lebanon, China, New Zealand and
South Korea. The ministry said that further countries could be added before July
1 when the country's regional airports also reopen.
"The list... has been drawn up on the basis of the epidemiological profile of
each country," taking into account the recommendations of the European Aviation
Safety Agency and a report by Greece's commission for infectious diseases, the
statement said. Visitors would be tested for the novel coronavirus upon arrival,
the tourism ministry said. Since the start of the outbreak in March, there has
been a limited number of flights arriving at Athens international airport, with
passengers mandatorily tested and ordered to quarantine for 14 days. Greece
began the gradual easing of lockdown restrictions on May 4, and will start
reopening its hotels next month. It has been less severely affected by the
COVID-19 pandemic than many EU countries, with 175 deaths and 2,906 infections
officially registered so far. Accounting for around 20 percent of Greece's gross
domestic product, the tourism sector is hoping to salvage at least some of this
year's summer season.
Diab Visits Army Barrack in Eastern Border
Naharnet/May 29/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab visited on Friday the barracks of Elias el-Khoury in
the eastern border town of Ras Baalbek and placed a flower wreath on a memorial
statue of soldiers killed during the 2017 operation “Dawn of the Outskirts” in
Ras Baalbek and el-Qaa against the terrorist Islamic State group.
“The army is our hope of rooted national belonging, guarding civil peace,
protecting security and imposing the State's authority,” said Diab in remarks he
made addressing soldiers. “The army is a living example of the Lebanese
aspirations for a homeland in which they live in safety and stability outside
sectarian, and political alignments,” added the PM. On the military’s ongoing
efforts to curb smuggling through the porous borders with Syria, he said: “We
will pursue efforts to stop smuggling by closing the illegal crossings that
cause great damage to the state and benefit a handful of smugglers. The
outskirts will remain hard to break because of the army’s protection.”Defense
Minister Zeina Akar and Army chief Jospeh Aoun accompanied Diab.
Central Bank: Negotiations Ongoing with IMF
Naharnet/May 29/2020
The Central Bank of Lebanon issued a statement on Friday assuring that BDL
governor Riad Salameh is taking part in the negotiations with the International
Monetary Fund which in turn requested not to disclose the content of talks.
“Central Bank governor Riad Salameh and his team have been negotiating in good
faith with the International Monetary Fund. Negotiations are ongoing, especially
with regard to the accounts that have not yet been concluded, as some media have
suggested,” the statement said. “The Central Bank cleaves to its position and
will not disclose the content of discussions with the IMF, at the latter’s
request,” the Central Bank’s statement concluded.
Bassil: States Can’t Be Established by Encouraging Crime
Naharnet/May 29/2020
Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil voiced disdain on Friday over a
general amnesty law that drew controversy at a legislative session the day
before, saying that “criminals and terrorists must not be treated the same as
Lebanese wishing to return back from Israel.”“Basically, we believe that
criminals must be punished and we reject the general amnesty law. We refused the
proposed swap: criminals and terrorists must not be pardoned in exchange for the
return of Lebanese from Israel,” said Bassil in a tweet. He added: “The amnesty
law for those fleeing to Israel was originally issued and only lacks the applied
decree. Criminals with blood on their hands must not be allowed to return. No
State can be built by encouraging crime.” Parliamentary blocs are divided over
what crimes should be pardoned and included in the controversial general amnesty
law. The law involves a pardon for Lebanese who fled to Israel after its
withdrawal from the South in 2000, another for Islamists jailed over
terror-related offenses and one for drug-related offenses that would benefit
prisoners who hail from the Bekaa. The country's three main Christian blocs
including the FPM, Kataeb, and Lebanese Forces reject the legislation arguing it
pardons inmates including those accused of killing soldiers and security
members.
Mustaqbal Lashes Out at Bassil: We Don't Sneak Criminals
under Intl. Deals
Naharnet/May 29/2020
Al-Mustaqbal Movement secretary-general Ahmed Hariri lashed out at Free
Patriotic Movement chief, Strong Lebanon MP Jebran Bassil over the general
amnesty law. “The difference between us, Plato, is that we reject smuggling
criminals and traitors under international deals,” Hariri said.
“We have worked hard on the general amnesty bill in front of the entire Lebanese
in order to remove injustice and to free Lebanese citizens sitting in prisons
without trial. For the thousand times, your remarks mean nothing because you
have challenged each agreement,” he added. Earlier on Friday, Bassil said
criticizing the bill and hinting at al-Mustaqbal's bid to release prisoners
linked to attacks at the Lebanese army. “Criminals and terrorists must not be
treated the same as Lebanese wishing to return back from Israel," said Bassil,
the son-in-law of President Michel Aoun. Parliamentary blocs were divided during
the legislative session on Thursday over what crimes should be pardoned and
included in the controversial general amnesty law. The law involves a pardon for
Lebanese who fled to Israel after its withdrawal from the South in 2000, another
for Islamists jailed over terror-related offenses and one for drug-related
offenses that would benefit prisoners who hail from the Bekaa. The country's
three main Christian blocs including the FPM, Kataeb, and Lebanese Forces reject
the legislation arguing it pardons inmates including those accused of killing
soldiers and security members.
Hezbollah Backs Mechanism for Appointing Top Officials, Bassil Rejects it
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 29 May, 2020
Lebanon’s parliament approved on Thursday a number of draft laws during a
legislative session that saw several political quarrels, mainly when former
Prime Minister Saad Hariri said that the “Free Patriotic Movement wants to
control the whole country.”During its morning session, attended by the
ambassadors of Norway, Switzerland and Canada, deputies approved funding for the
2020 state budget. They endorsed a law proposed by Lebanese Forces MP George
Adwan on setting the mechanism to appoint first category employees. His proposal
included an amendment that annuls the minister’s right to propose the names
before cabinet. All blocs, except for the FPM, approved the law. Head of the
FPM, MP Gebran Bassil said he would appeal the move, saying it “violates the
constitution, specifically the minister’s jurisdiction.”
Hariri, who held a closed-door meeting with Speaker Nabih Berri before the
session, demanded that politicians cease their meddling in administrative
appointments. “The problem lies in the political management of this file. Every
party wants to appoint their own figure,” he added, accusing the FPM of wanting
to control the whole country.The parliament also approved a law on lifting bank
secrecy for public officials. After the objection of several lawmakers, it
amended an article that “allows the central bank’s own investigation committee
and the anti-corruption committee” to lift the secrecy. Hezbollah’s Loyalty to
the Resistance bloc MP Hassan Fadlallah said that lifting bank secrecy cannot be
effective without an independent judiciary. This proposal does not take into
account lifting the secrecy of officials who enjoy constitutional immunity. MP
Wael Abou Faour said the judiciary cannot be trusted as long as it is influenced
by politics. On the divisive general amnesty law, which was kept for last due to
its controversy, FPM MP Ibrahim Kanaan said it was unfortunate that the issue
was taking on a sectarian form. He said detainees who are held for attacking the
army and on terrorism charges must be exempt from the pardon. Hariri said: “The
amnesty is fair to a large number of people. It is very important to us because
many people have been wronged. Hundreds of people need to be pardoned,
especially since Lebanon witnessed unrest between 2014 and 2016.” “Some people
are trying to portray us as wanting to release criminals and murderers. That is
not true. We want people who have been held in jail for years without trial to
be released,” he stressed. MP Hassan Khalil, of Berri’s Amal bloc, said the
movement rejects the amnesty law. “We reject the pardoning of agents who worked
for the Israeli enemy,” he wrote in a tweet.
Lebanon’s Economy Minister Announces Plan to Subsidize
Basic Food Products
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 29 May, 2020
Lebanese Minister of Economy and Trade Raoul Nehme announced a plan to subsidize
basic food products with the aim to curb the soaring prices of food commodities
as a result of the devaluation of the local currency against the US dollar.n
During a press conference, Nehme said the subsidized food basket would be
supported in cooperation with the Central Bank through a mechanism established
by the Ministry of Economy, which will reduce commodity prices and maintain food
security during these difficult times. The minister said the basket would
include all the necessary nutritional components, including vegetable and animal
protein and carbohydrates, in addition to raw materials for industry and
agriculture to enable farmers and industrialists to produce food commodities,
including sugar, rice, grains, milk, oil and livestock. Nehme underlined his
ministry’s keenness to reduce the prices of basic food commodities by setting a
specific mechanism that would be adopted to prevent squandering and to control
sales from the importer to the consumer. “Prices will be adjusted to match the
purchasing power of the citizen,” he stressed, warning that the ministry would
strictly deal with the violators and would refer them to the judiciary. The
decision comes after the rise in the price of food and consumer products by 100
to 300 percent in recent months, as a result of the scarcity of the dollar and
the high exchange rate on the black market, where the dollar was sold at LBP
4,000.
Lebanon’s Berri Warns Government Not to Engage in Political Dispute
Beirut - Mohamed Choucair/ Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 29 May, 2020
Speaker Nabih Berri has warned the Lebanese government not to engage in
political bickering that could lead to disagreements among its members,
parliamentary sources said. Commenting on a recent rift between President Michel
Aoun and Prime Minister Hassan Diab over a power plant, the sources quoted Berri
as saying that the “winner of this confrontation will inevitably be among the
losers, because the loss will threaten harmony within the government on one
hand, and hinder its mission in addressing the economic and financial collapse,
on the other.”The same sources confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that all parties are
aware of Berri’s advice, including the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP
Gebran Bassil, who is Aoun's son-in-law. The latter has failed to persuade his
ally, Hezbollah, to change its position and vote in favor of establishing the
plant in Silaata. A cabinet minister has been quoted as saying that Aoun has
insisted on the government to review on Friday a decision it took during a
previous session to reject the establishment of the power plant. But this
doesn’t mean that the majority of ministers would support his move. The minister
said that some cabinet members would not yield to the pressure exerted by the
FPM, which has been established by Aoun, to vote in favor of the plant.
According to the source, at least nine ministers would insist on their position
by voting against the establishment of the facility. Hezbollah could also
refrain from voting. He added that eight ministers would back the president’s
request, and another cabinet member might join them, referring to pressure
exerted on Minister of Information Manal Abdel Samad, who is close to Diab. The
minister expects that the government would be equally divided between Aoun and
the prime minister, as long as Hezbollah’s ministers refrain from voting.
Caught in between: Syrians seeking to return from Lebanon
stuck in buffer zone
Abby Sewell, Al Arabiya English/Friday 29 May 2020
As the economy in Lebanon continues to plummet, an increasing number of Syrian
refugees have opted to chance returning to Syria, but with the border closed due
to coronavirus, some have gotten stuck in the buffer zone between the
countries.According to a rights monitoring group and officials, in recent weeks,
dozens of Syrians have gotten stuck at the border at the Masnaa crossing.
Although the border has been officially closed since mid-March, Lebanese
citizens have been allowed to return from Syria and some Syrians have been
allowed to cross in the other direction. A report released Tuesday expressed
concerns that deteriorating conditions in Lebanon are pushing Syrians to unsafe
returns. “At the beginning of this month, dozens of Syrian families gathered for
long days at the Syrian-Lebanese border, desiring to return to Syria because of
the bad conditions they are suffering in Lebanon,” the monitoring group Syrian
Association for Citizens’ Dignity (SACD) wrote. Refugees seeking to return to
Syria had arrived at the border in different groups over the past several weeks,
Haya Atassi, a spokeswoman for SACD, told Al Arabiya English.The Syrians had
passed the last checkpoint marking the end of Lebanese territory and entered
into a buffer zone with shared authority between the two countries, which
extends for several kilometers before the Syrian border, but they were denied
entry at the Syrian border, she said.
No man's land
“They thought they would be allowed to enter into their country, but they were
not, so they got stuck in no man’s land, in this area between the Syrian and the
Lebanese border,” she said. From time to time, she said, the Syrian authorities
would allow a group to come through and go into quarantine, but said it seemed
to be “arbitrary” which citizens were allowed to cross. While returning Lebanese
citizens are told to quarantine at home for two weeks, returning Syrians are
required to go into government-run quarantine facilities. A spokesman for
Lebanese General Security confirmed that Syrians had gotten stuck at the border
but said he did not know how many. The Syrians, he said, had “left Lebanon via
an illegal crossing without passing by General Security, and they are stuck with
the Syrian (authorities) who will not let them in before they do a coronavirus
test.”Syrian authorities did not respond to requests for comment.
At the Lebanese General Security office ahead of the border crossing Thursday, a
few groups of Syrians approached with suitcases in hand but were turned back by
General Security officers who said they needed a negative COVID-19 test and
permission from the Syrian embassy in Beirut in order to cross.
Al Arabiya English was not granted permission to enter the buffer area at the
border to speak to the Syrians stuck there.
Alternative routes
Shortly after being turned away from the official crossing, one group of men
could be seen making their way through the barren hills facing the crossing on
foot, hauling their suitcases. Another group – two men and a woman along with a
baby and small child – told Al Arabiya English that they had applied at the
Syrian embassy for repatriation two months ago but had gotten tired of waiting.
One of the young men, who declined to give his name, said they had no work and
had run out of money. “We don’t have enough money left to eat,” he said. The
young man said they had heard that “the people who are there at the border,
every week or ten days they’re letting them across. We said we’ll come and sit
until they let us in, because otherwise, we don’t have anything.” Atassi said
that some refugees who had legal residency in Lebanon had been able to return
back to Lebanese territory, while others had managed to cross into Syria, in
some cases by paying smugglers or bribing border guards. But several dozen
others remain stuck, she said. Aid organizations had not been allowed access and
that the Syrians had been buying food and drinks from the border guards, she
said. UNHCR officials declined to comment on the situation.
Lebanese officials have been vocal in pushing for the Syrian refugees – of whom
there are currently about 910,000 registered and potentially hundreds of
thousands more unregistered in the country – to go back to Syria. Before the
coronavirus hit, Lebanese General Security had been organizing “voluntary
return” trips for Syrians willing to repatriate every month or two. In the last
trip in February, General Security reported that 1,093 Syrians had gone back. UN
officials, who interview the returnees before they go, have said that economic
issues and the rising cost of living have been among the major reasons cited for
going. With the economic situation now deteriorating even further in the face of
the COVID-19 crisis, the SACD report raised concerns that failure by the
international community to provide adequate support to the refugees would amount
to a “de facto forced return” into potentially unsafe conditions.
“The international community must act to support the Lebanese government in
facing the burdens of hosting Syrian refugees, while at the same time making
firm demands for discrimination against Syrian refugees to be curtailed through
legal means.”
Anna Ahronheim on Hezbollah's Terror Army
Marilyn Stern/Middle East Forum Radio/May 28/2020
Anna Ahronheim, Military & Defense Correspondent at The Jerusalem Post, spoke to
Middle East Forum Radio host Gregg Roman on May 20 about Hezbollah's Shi'ite
"terror army" and its ongoing threat to Israel's northern border with Lebanon.
In response to Israel's targeting of its operatives in Syria, Hezbollah's
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has recently warned that the group is
prepared to launch attacks along Israel's entire northern border. This is not
bluster in Ahronheim's estimation; she anticipates that the next full-blown
conflict between Hezbollah and Israel risks encompassing "the entire Northern
front from the Mediterranean Sea all the way to Hermon" in the Golan Heights.
Due to Iranian assistance, Hezbollah now has an estimated "130,000 rockets of
different ranges and payloads ... that could even reach Dimona," where Israel's
Negev Nuclear Research Center is located. Although Israel's "air defenses have
been improving on a year-to-year basis ... it's not ever 100% ... you're still
going to have rockets landing in Israel, deep in the home front."
The IDF's main concern is Iran's effort to upgrade these rockets with precision
guidance systems "that can hit within five meters of the target," putting at
risk such high-value targets as Israel's natural gas platforms in the
Mediterranean Sea, where Sa'ar-6 corvette warships armed with the naval Iron
Dome system have been stationed to offer protection. The "Hezbollah precision
missile project" has replaced the Iranian nuclear threat as the number one
threat to Israel, said Ahronheim
Under Hezbollah's "Conquering the Galilee" plan, the group's so-called Radwan
special forces units will infiltrate Israel's northern border and attempt to
seize entire villages. These operatives "know that they're not going to come
back alive from a mission like that." Their goal is to "take as many pictures
that they can of killing Israeli soldiers and civilians" and let the media "do
the rest," explained Ahronheim. "In Israel, if you see pictures of dead
civilians or dead soldiers, that hits a nerve, and Hezbollah knows that."
"South Lebanese towns are military fortresses full of Hezbollah operatives
waiting for the order to infiltrate and kill."
Although Israel has discovered infiltration tunnels and flooded them with
cement, Hezbollah hardly needs tunnels to cross the border in force. "South
Lebanese towns are military fortresses full of Hezbollah operatives waiting for
the order to infiltrate and kill," which can be done simply by "cutting the
fence or smashing through the wall" separating the two countries.
Israel has "up[ped] the ante" by targeting the Iranian-backed Hezbollah threat
with its "War Between Wars" air campaign. Israel's aim is to prevent "all of
Syria turn[ing] into south Lebanon" and eventually to eject Iran and Hezbollah
from Syria altogether. Iran has recently been "withdrawing from several bases"
in Syria and "moving their forces closer to the Iraqi border" due to the Israeli
air campaign.
Iran's partial retreat in Syria may also reflect pressure on the home front,
where its leaders are "losing legitimacy in the eyes of their own people" for
spending millions on foreign adventurism. The recent assassination of IRGC Quds
Force commander Qassem Soleimani from an American strike was also a serious
blow. Soleimani's replacement "is not going to fill his shoes, and Iran knows
that."
An all-out war with Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies would likely erupt if
Israel found it necessary to launch a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear
facilities, but it could also be triggered by conflict between the U.S. and
Iran. "One little misstep could lead ... to a huge conflagration which [would]
reverberate across the entire Middle East," said Ahronheim. "[It] could start in
the Gulf of Oman [or] it could start in Iraq, and in the end it [would] end up
here in Israel."
*Marilyn Stern is the producer of Middle East Forum Radio.
Psychological resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic: is
it attainable?
Christy-Belle Geha/Annahar/May 29/2020
However, Husseini thinks that the Lebanese society, in particular, will be able
to overcome this crisis since it has always been functional post traumas.
BEIRUT: Trees in Ushuaia, the southernmost city in the world and capital of
Tierra del Fuego in Argentina, are called “flag trees” given their tendency to
follow the wind direction and subsequently bend towards one side. Ghida Husseini,
counseling psychologist, stress and trauma counselor and trainer recalled
associating the sight of these trees, during one of her trips to Ushuaia, with
the concept of resilience.
“Resilience; do we bend or break? Resilience isn’t a synonym of coping,”
affirmed Husseini, “Resilience is the ability to bend with the wind, to flow
with the current, to bounce back from a shock, whereas coping is the ability to
manage difficult and challenging conditions. Our resilience increases as we
learn how to cope, and we should be resilient during these times.”
Amid the global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the abrupt routine disruption
affected most of the globe’s population, leading to a stress exacerbation among
most. Husseini recently discussed the cruciality of maintaining psychological
resilience when facing distress within the current confinement, in an online
session facilitated by the May Chidiac Foundation - Media Institute (MCF-MI), in
partnership with the United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the
Empowerment of Women (UN Women) in Lebanon. This online session is part of a
broader project titled “Reporting on Gender-Based Violence with Emphasis on
Sexual Trafficking” launched earlier in 2020 by the May Chidiac Foundation-Media
Institute (MCF-MI), in partnership with The United Nations Entity for Gender
Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women), and funded by the Government
of Japan and Finland’s Development Cooperation. “Absurdity and uncertainty cause
stress because individuals feel that they’re fighting an intangible opponent.
Stress is subsequently normal in these abnormal times,” the speaker noted.
The multiplicity of rapid and sudden changes affects simultaneously different
life aspects, making the COVID-19 pandemic clearly disruptive and emotionally
overwhelming. This unforeseen situation generated an irrational fear of losing
life, causing trauma, according to Husseini.
In parallel, accepting the human condition is key to the normalization of
stress, to become aware that the fear of the unknown is normal and common, and
that all forces are uniting to face the imminent threat. The bodily responses to
threats are the body’s means of trying to survive.
“We realized that human beings are vulnerable since a tiny virus is
incarcerating millions around the world. However, these same human beings are
smart, considering that they are finding ways to protect themselves,” added
Husseini.
What is stress?
In fact, the physiology of stress shows that the human nervous system is biased
towards the assessment of threat more often than this latter is present, as a
way to stay safe, knowing that human brains are survival-oriented. The nervous
system’s response to threat will be either fight, flight, or freeze, as shown in
the chart below. In case of inability to fight or flee, the response to stress
will potentially remain in the body, causing more psychological exhaustion.
“Stress shows in feeling more anxious, worried, and tense than normal,” said
Husseini. “You might also feel distracted, jittery, and unable to focus on
anything very well, or for a very long time. Thinking about the outbreak and
wanting to learn everything about the pandemic even when you are trying to focus
on other things are also signs of stress.”
What does stress generate in confinement?
Confinement generates numerous problems such as poor diet control due to the
natural human need for instant gratification whenever in a negative situation,
which is a gratification gap often filled with excessive food. Being quarantined
also incites frustration, attention issues, sleep cycle disturbance, and
fatigue, not solely provoked by physical effort.
Fear also escalates in similar times.
“The stigmatization of COVID-19 infected patients reminded me of the
stigmatization of cancer patients a few years ago,” elaborated Husseini. “Stigma
is destructive.” Dysfunctionality in the family dynamics might also see the
light if not avoided. It sometimes leads to interpersonal conflicts such as
domestic violence or excessive consumption of alcohol, tobacco, and drug
overuse. “Fighting with others will provoke others’ stress as well, so it’s
unhealthy for both parties involved in the fight,” insisted Husseini. She added
that psychologists still ignore the aftermath of this crisis on the human’s
psychological growth and human ties after confinement. However, Husseini thinks
that the Lebanese society, in particular, will be able to overcome this crisis
since it has always been functional post traumas. How can one manage distress
and stay resilient? “Breathing is free of charge. Do more of it,” advised
Husseini, noting to the online session’s attendees that the best breathing
techniques are the straw breathing- ideally done before sleeping- and the
mindful breathing. The counseling psychologist also emphasized the importance of
sleep as a critical factor in stress release. “No phone, no thinking, no work,
and no eating in bed. Just sleep.”
Moreover, creating a workplace at home is essential for concentrating all the
attention on work regardless of the unusual work environment. “Create a routine
for yourself. For instance, take off your pyjamas, and wear casual clothes as if
you’re going to your workplace. It will redirect your focus.”
Husseini also suggested taking breaks during the day, reminding oneself that
violence doesn’t solve problems and that light is at the end of the tunnel,
distracting oneself from anger triggers by doing fun activities, and connecting
and expressing emotions through words without blaming others for one’s own
emotional exhaustion. Enhancing skills is also key to self-discovery and
managing to stay healthy, as well as exercising, monitoring the use of alcohol,
caffeine, and tobacco. However, sanity remains hard to maintain among
communities in need especially amid an exacerbation of financial difficulties,
knowing that quarantine can’t be luxurious to everybody. “I can’t expect from
people who can barely make it through the day to stay home and stick to physical
and psychological safety tips. From a psychological point of view, such people
can be taught breathing techniques that can help them control their stress,” she
said.
Deciphering Hezbollah chief Nasrallah’s rhetoric:
Resistance is no longer a priority
Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/Friday 29 May 2020
In an interview with Hezbollah’s Noor Radio on Tuesday, on the anniversary of
the liberation of southern Lebanon from Israeli occupation, Hezbollah’s leader
Hassan Nasrallah spoke about the liberation and thoroughly listed all the
“resistance’s achievements” since that moment in history. However, as he
reminded the Lebanese of Hezbollah’s sacrifices and triumphs, Nasrallah
overlooked a few facts, indicating a number of shifts.
Rhetoric Shifts
The most significant Syria-related shift that Nasrallah indicated is the way he
differentiated between Hezbollah’s strategies in Lebanon and in Syria. Usually,
Hezbollah’s go-to rhetoric is threats and intimidations, although always
accompanied by the famous “we will retaliate at the right time and place.”
However, Nasrallah took a different tone when asked about Syria. He said: “So
why aren't we retaliating against Israel's strikes in Syria? Why don't we create
the same equation in Syria as in Lebanon? Because our mission in Syria is not
over – we are still trying to defeat armed groups. This is our priority.” He
added that Hezbollah is employing “strategic patience.”The reality is that
Hezbollah prefers to avoid a war with Israel that may not be contained to Syria
and would possibly see infrastructure in Iraq and Lebanon targeted as well.
Hezbollah is also suffering from a financial crisis – due to US sanctions on
Iran – that hinders them from funding and preparing for another war with Israel.
It is, however, an indication that Hezbollah has no immediate plans to retaliate
against Israel in Syria – a significant shift from Hezbollah’s longtime
noncompromising rhetoric against Israel. In a sense, Nasrallah said that
fighting armed groups in Syria is more of a priority for Hezbollah than
resisting Israel. This is a major shift for Hezbollah and it indicates weakness
and readiness to compromise. Another shift and indication of compromise is
Nasrallah’s discussion on the IMF-Lebanon negotiations. Although he said that
there are better alternatives to the IMF such as “Syria, Iraq, and China,” he
also said that Hezbollah is “opening the door for Lebanese to discuss IMF
conditions, whether they're humiliating or not… if they impose realistic
conditions on us, great. If not, we'll go to alternatives.” For Hezbollah to
accept IMF conditions on Lebanon – realistic or not – means that the party and
its Iranian sponsors cannot really offer an alternative to save Lebanon.
Behind the Rhetoric Shifts
This shift in rhetoric that primarily focuses on the resistance’s priorities
shows Hezbollah’s fears, rather than confidence, and that fear is rooted in the
party’s view on regional trends and a further deterioration of their presence
and control in Lebanon and in the region.
Since the liberation day in year 2000, Hezbollah has focused on ideological and
sectarian translation of its “divine victories” rather than translate them into
an economic and social vision to serve Lebanon and the Lebanese people. To gain
allies, Hezbollah backed corrupt politicians, and allowed dictatorships such as
Iran and Assad’s regime to benefit from and destroy the Lebanese economy. Now
that the economy has collapsed, and people have finally realized that Hezbollah
was behind their losses and frustration, the party of God – instead of offering
a viable socio-economic plan to pave a way forward – has continued to back the
same system that led to the collapse. Hezbollah can’t play the blame-game
forever, and they know that the next wave of protests will be more violent and
outspoken – and they are worried. Nasrallah’s new rhetoric does not mean that
Hezbollah – and by default Iran – will change its plan for Lebanon or alter its
regional strategy. The new rhetoric is merely an attempt to buy time until
something again shifts in the region and Hezbollah feels more confident in their
ability to retaliate against regional players and Lebanese protesters.
Twenty years after the withdrawal of the Israeli forces from south Lebanon,
Lebanon in going through its worst crisis since gaining its independence.
Instead of defeating Israel, Hezbollah defeated Lebanon and the Lebanese people.
They have offered Lebanon to the Iranian regime, and 2000 was a year that marked
a turning point as it exposed Hezbollah’s real plan for Lebanon.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the inaugural Friedmann Fellow at The Washington Institute's
Geduld Program on Arab Politics, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout
the Levant. She tweets @haningdr.
From the coronavirus frontlines: Lebanon’s hotline
volunteers work around the clock
Emily Lewis, Al Arabiya English/Friday 29 May 2020
For 13 of the 15 years of Lebanon’s civil war, Maher al-Kharrat drove ambulances
and treated the injured with the Lebanese Red Cross under the constant threat of
being caught in crossfire. Now he is on the frontlines of a new battle – the one
against the novel coronavirus.
“There is no fighting now, but we are still at war,” the 54-year-old told Al
Arabiya English. Kharrat is one of a team of around 50 volunteers who work
around the clock to man the phones of the COVID-19 hotline at Rafik Hariri
Hospital – Lebanon’s largest public hospital and the hub of the country’s
coronavirus response. The basement call center in southern Beirut, housed in the
headquarters of state-run telecoms company Ogero, receives an average of 100
calls per day, spiking to 500 on the busiest days. Operators were trained on how
to answer questions on the novel coronavirus, guide patients on quarantine
procedures, follow up on suspected cases and coordinate with doctors and
ambulance services to transport patients with severe symptoms to hospital. When
an operator receives a call, they can search key terms into the network’s
COVID-19 database, updated regularly in coordination with medical staff at the
hospital, to make sure the caller gets accurate advice and information. “This is
essential for this disease that in one way or another came out of the blue,”
said Dr. Firas Abiad, the hospital’s director. “People have a lot of anxieties
about COVID-19, because we still don’t really know much about it.”
A huge responsibility
With the volunteers taking a new call around every five minutes, the work can be
stressful, tiring and emotionally draining. “When I get home I am exhausted,”
said 22-year-old public health graduate Tracy Israel, who signed up to volunteer
at the call center after struggling to find full-time employment.
“There’s this weight of a huge responsibility to make sure people get what they
need and feel at ease.” Despite the efforts of the team to allay the fears of
anxious callers by calmly and reassuringly giving detailed advice or guidance,
there are times when they just cannot get through. “People under stress can get
aggressive, and sometimes they scream down the phones at us and make threats,”
Kharrat said. In late May, the Red Cross veteran suffered a heart attack and had
to undergo surgery. But just four days later, he was back in his chair,
answering calls and directing less experienced volunteers. “I had to come back
to help, I know many people out there are suffering,” he said. Ola Bazzi, a
23-year-old volunteer who describes herself as naturally shy, was nervous about
handling different personalities over the phone when she first joined the team
in April, but said she has learned to empathize.
“The aggressive people make up a tiny minority of callers, but I understand them
in one way or another – it’s a stressful time.”In April, the Lebanese Health
Ministry began conducting random coronavirus tests across the country to gain a
better idea of the virus’ spread. For the last two weeks, the Rafik Hariri
Hospital hotline has been responsible for giving out the results to those who
have been tested.“This is when the pressure really started,” Bazzi said. “People
call and expect the result straight away, even though we tell them the test
takes 48 hours to be processed.”
Smart software
The call center is run by the National Council for Entrepreneurship and
Innovation (NCEI), which provided software to forecast busy periods, analyze
calls in real-time and provide recommended responses to common queries. “This
means that operators can always give the same answers to the same questions,”
Maan Barazy, NCEI’s president said. “We don’t leave anything to chance.”The
specialized algorithm prompts operators to follow up with patients who have
suspected symptoms, ensuring they can quickly get the care they need should
their condition deteriorate. It also allows staff to trace everyone a patient
has been in close contact with should they test positive for COVID-19. When a
patient needs to be admitted to hospital, their symptoms and medical history
collected by operators at the call center are then shared with the staff at the
hospital’s coronavirus unit. “This way, the ER team knows exactly what to expect
when the patient arrives,” Barazy said. The system also helps monitor patients
who have been discharged from the hospital that no longer need urgent care but
are still contagious. For Dr. Mahmoud Hassoun, who heads the hospital’s
dedicated coronavirus unit, the smart software is where the call center really
comes into its own.“The algorithm does not make mistakes,” he said. “It’s a real
added value for our hospital to help us curb the spread of the virus.”The
hospital at the heart of the battle. The Rafik Hariri University Hospital has
become the reference center for the country’s COVID-19 response as it was the
first hospital to receive coronavirus patients when the first case was confirmed
on February 21.The hospital has long suffered from chronic underfunding and
under-resourcing and staff staged protests earlier this year to demand unpaid
salaries and better living conditions. For Abiad, the hospital’s response to the
coronavirus crisis, including the creation of a dedicated call center has helped
to change its reputation and public image. “We have been able to build trust
between us and the public and really address the needs of our patients.”
Reforms to judiciary, electricity remain major hurdles for
Lebanon to receive IMF aid
Wael Taleb, Al Arabiya English/Friday 29 May 2020
Currently in the throngs of an unprecedented economic crisis, Lebanon again is
faced with a choice – make reforms or likely receive no international aid.
But for years, the country has failed to make reforms across the board –
including in its ailing electricity sector that still leaves some Lebanese with
just six hours of power a day and its judicial system that is rife with
corruption.
This time, like the last time Lebanon asked for help, aid is unlikely to come to
fruition without serious reform. In 2018, $11 billion was pledged by
international donors at the French-organized CEDRE conference on the condition
of major reforms that are yet to be implemented.Now, as inflation continues to
rise and the economy sinks deeper into recession after defaulting on its
Eurobond debt in March, Lebanon has asked the International Monetary Fund for
$10 billion, and it intends to cash in on the billions pledged in France as
well.
The government, led by Prime Minister Hassan Diab endorsed a rescue plan in late
April designed to attract foreign aid to pull the country out of its financial
and economic crisis. Opposition political figure Samir Geagea on Friday said
Lebanon has scant chance of securing IMF aid as the government fails to enact
required reforms. From the IMF’s perspective, failure to make progress has
hindered Lebanon’s position in talks. “Different numbers of losses presented by
the government and the Banque Du Liban, lack of progress on judicial and other
appointments or stalled electricity sector reform only weaken Lebanon’s position
in talks with the IMF. The country and the people cannot afford that any more,”
said Jan Kubis, United Nations’ special coordinator for Lebanon in a tweet.
An old problem
The electricity sector in Lebanon has long been beset by challenges. While much
of the country’s public infrastructure was destroyed during its 15-year Civil
War that ended in 1990, subsequent reconstruction efforts often focused on
high-end property developments in the capital Beirut.
Residents of Beirut contend with three-hour daily power cuts, while some rural
areas have just face 18-hours with no electricity. These daily blackouts force
many inhabitants to rely on private generators, and costs are often more
expensive than state utility bills. “When we observe the electricity sector in
Lebanon in comparison with other countries, it is outrageous that after 30 years
we haven’t advanced,” Jamal Saghir, a former director of sustainable development
at the World Bank, said in an online discussion organized by the Beirut
community space the Hub.
The state-run Électricité du Liban (EDL) generates an annual deficit of up to $2
billion, costs the country around 4.5 percent of its yearly GDP, and still only
manages to generate around 50 percent of the electricity Lebanese receive,
Saghir explained.
“We cannot solve the financial crisis in Lebanon without tackling the
electricity sector, and I am sure that this will be the core element of the IMF
program in Lebanon,” Saghir added. This is also one of the peak symbols of
corruption in Lebanon.”
For years, EDL has contributed to Lebanon’s massive public debt of $90 billion,
and the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood around 170 percent as of March.
Since 1993, political parties have generated revenue from EDL, Monir Yehya,
former member of the Board of Directors of EDL, told Al Arabiya English.
High-value contracts made investing in the sector attractive which led to
“political parties favoring their own interests over the benefit of the sector,”
Yehya explained, meaning there has been little incentive to reform.
Yehya said where problem is four-pronged – technical, financial, institutional,
and legal – politicians deliberately focus on the technical-production and
ignore other problems, a key reason the sector has crumbled.
Political will needed
“A deadly mistake that we have done since 1993 is that we have enacted
electrical factories that function on diesel,” Yehya added. “The solutions which
include sustainable energy are there, what you need is not technicalities, but a
political will.”Underlying structural and technical problems though, is the
issue of political will, which has bedeviled another area of government reform:
the judicial system. A fair and independent judiciary was among the main demands
of the nationwide protests that started October 17. But despite protests in
favor of a law to curb judicial corruption, parliament in recent sessions
declined to consider the law. Like all institutions in Lebanon, the judiciary
system is riddled with corruption sectarian complexities. “When a judge is
chosen based on his sect and the seats are divided under the typical sectarian
divisions, any judge wouldn’t be able to take independent decisions that are not
influenced from religious authorities that in turn affect the religious
political leaders and vice versa,” Azzah Soleiman, professor of law at the
Lebanese University told Al Arabiya English. Lebanon’s public sector jobs are
often distributed by sectarian political leaders on the basis of party loyalty
rather than merit, reinforcing the clientelist patronage networks upon which
most government and parliament members rely. “All politicians call for the
independence of the judiciary and simultaneously criticize the judge’s decision
when they don’t like it,” Soleiman added. Earlier this month, leader of the
Christian Marada Movement Sleiman Frangieh refused to extradite fellow party
member Sarkis Hliess after charges of corruption were leveled against him.
Frangieh accused Judge Ghada Aoun of being biased in favor of the Free Patriotic
Movement, after she ordered the arrest of several employees at the energy
ministry.
“In my opinion with all due respect to the efforts of the few judges, the only
serious attempt that pushes for judiciary reforms came from the October 17
protests as the trust between people and the judiciary system became weak,”
Soleiman said.
The Lebanese Supreme Judicial Council presented judicial reforms in early March
that sought to improve the judiciary, but because of political disputes, the
legislation has not passed. “To be able to have an independent judiciary you
have to have an independent government, not like the one we have,” said Yehya.
“In the absence of that, you will never achieve any serious
reforms.”Unfortunately for Lebanon, the lack of independent government and
judiciary, its ailing electricity sector, and perhaps most importantly the lack
of political will mean achieving long-sought reforms – even in the face of
economic collapse – seems unlikely. “If the behavior at the top of the state
remains the way it is, how can we save the country?” Geagea said Friday.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
May 29-30/2020
U.S. Cop who Killed Black Man
Detained, Charged with 3rd-Degree Murder
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 29/2020
A Minneapolis policeman accused of killing unarmed African-American George Floyd
by kneeling on his neck was taken into custody Friday and charged with
third-degree murder, officials said. Derek Chauvin is one of four officers who
were fired shortly after an explosive video emerged showing a handcuffed Floyd
lying on the street as an officer identified as Chauvin pinned his knee to
Floyd's neck for at least five minutes on Monday. The death of the 46-year-old
Floyd has sparked days of sometimes violent demonstrations in Minneapolis and
other US cities over police brutality against African-Americans. So far,
hundreds of shops have been damaged and a police station set on fire. "Former
Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin is in custody," Hennepin county
prosecutor Mike Freeman told reporters. "Chauvin has been charged... with murder
and with manslaughter," he added, specifying to reporters that the charge was
third-degree murder. U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota applauded Chauvin's
arrest, calling it "the first step towards justice."
Racism cannot be 'normal' -
In the graphic video footage, Floyd is seen saying that he can not breathe.
Eventually he went silent and limp, and he was later declared dead.Protests
swelled after federal authorities said Thursday that they were making the case a
top priority but announced no arrests at that time. Overnight, demonstrators
broke through law enforcement barriers to overtake the Minneapolis police
station where the four officers blamed for Floyd's death were based. A fire
broke out and soon became an inferno that engulfed the structure. Minnesota's
national guard announced that 500 troops were being deployed Friday for
peacekeeping amid signs that the anger was nowhere near dissipating.President
Donald Trump blasted local officials and labelled the protesters "thugs,"
threatening a harsh crackdown. "These THUGS are dishonoring the memory of George
Floyd, and I won't let that happen," Trump tweeted. "Just spoke to (Minnesota)
Governor Tim Walz and told him that the Military is with him all the way. Any
difficulty and we will assume control but, when the looting starts, the shooting
starts."Twitter concealed that tweet, saying it violated its policy on
glorifying violence. Former president Barack Obama said Friday he shared the
"anguish" of millions of Americans over Floyd's death and that racism cannot be
"normal" in the United States. "It can't be 'normal,'" Obama, the first black
U.S. president, said in a statement. "If we want our children to grow up in a
nation that lives up to its highest ideals, we can and must do better."
Trump Says U.S. 'Terminating' Relationship with WHO
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 29/2020
U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday he was breaking off U.S. ties with the
World Health Organization, which he says failed to do enough to combat the
initial spread of the novel coronavirus. Trump had already suspended funding to
the U.N. agency, accusing it of being a "puppet" of China as the global health
crisis erupted. "Because they have failed to make the requested and greatly
needed reforms, we will be today terminating our relationship with the World
Health Organization," Trump told reporters.The Republican leader said the U.S.
would be "redirecting those funds to other worldwide and deserving urgent global
public health needs."
Trump to Curb China Students, Strip Hong Kong Privileges
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 29/2020
President Donald Trump said Friday that the United States will restrict Chinese
students and start reversing Hong Kong's special status in customs and other
areas, as Beijing imposes a controversial security law. Trump said the Chinese
government has been "diminishing the city's longstanding and very proud
status.""This is a tragedy for the people of Hong Kong, the people of China, and
indeed the people of the world," Trump told reporters. Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo on Wednesday told Congress that the Trump administration would no longer
consider Hong Kong to be separate under U.S. law but did not spell out the
consequences.Trump also was light on specifics but said: "I am directing my
administration to begin the process of eliminating policy that gives Hong Kong
different and special treatment." "This will affect the full range of
agreements, from our extradition treaty to our export controls on dual-use
technologies and more, with few exceptions," he said. Trump also said he would
restrict the entry of some graduate students from China -- the largest source of
foreigners to U.S. universities -- but did not immediately give numbers. "For
years, the government of China has conducted elicit espionage to steal our
industrial secrets, of which there are many," Trump said. "Today I will issue a
proclamation to better secure our nation's vital university research and to
suspend the entry of certain foreign nationals from China who we have identified
as potential security risks."
Russia’s energy minister discusses trade, investment with
Iranian counterpart
Reuters/Friday 29 May 2020
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak discussed trade ties and investment
cooperation with his Iranian counterpart Reza Ardakanian by telephone on Friday,
Russia’s energy ministry said. The ministry added that they had discussed
cooperation in the energy, agricultural and transport sectors.
On Wednesday, the United States has decided to end sanctions waivers allowing
Russian, Chinese and European firms to continue work at certain Iranian nuclear
sites, a US official and another source familiar with the matter said on
Wednesday. For all the latest headlines follow our Google News channel online or
via the app. The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the move
applied to Iran’s Arak heavy water research reactor, the provision of enriched
uranium for its Tehran Research Reactor and the transfer of spent and scrap
reactor fuel abroad. However, the sources said the United States would provide
60 days to wind down international activities – which were designed to make the
Iranian nuclear program less capable of producing weapons – at the sites.
ISIS calls Iraq prime minister ‘American agent,’ calls for more attacks
AP, Baghdad/Friday 29 May 2020
ISIS in an audio message blasted Iraq’s new prime minister, calling him an
“American agent,” and criticized the closure of Islam’s holiest shrine in the
Saudi Arabian holy city of Mecca to limit the spread of coronavirus. In the
message allegedly read by the group’s chief spokesman Abu Hamza al-Qurayshi,
released late Thursday, al-Qurayshi asked why mosques are being closed and
people being prevented from praying at the Grand Mosque in Mecca, hinting that
Muslims are immune to the coronavirus. The virus outbreak disrupted Islamic
worship in the Middle East as Saudi Arabia in late March banned its citizens and
other residents of the kingdom from performing the minor pilgrimage to Mecca. In
other countries in the Middle East, Friday prayers were also suspended to limit
the spread of the virus. Iraq’s new Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, a former
intelligence chief backed by Washington, took office earlier this month after he
played a part for years in the war against ISIS. The group was declared defeated
in Iraq in 2017. Al-Kadhimi remains the “intelligence’s pointed sword” on the
heads of Muslims, al-Qurayshi said, urging ISIS fighters to launch daily attacks
in Syria, Iraq and other countries. In recent weeks, the extremists have taken
advantage of the pandemic to launch deadly attacks in their former self-declared
caliphate in parts of Iraq and Syria. On Wednesday, ISIS fighters attacked a
Syrian government post in northern Syria killing eight soldiers. Russian
airstrikes followed killing 11 ISIS gunmen, according to opposition activists.A
day later, three members of the US-backed Kurdish-led Syria Democratic Forces
were found with their throats slit in the eastern province of Deir el-Zour near
the Iraqi border, where ISIS sleeper cells are active, according to the
Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor.
After the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a US raid in northwest
Syria late last year, the group named Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi as his
successor in October. The new spokesman, Abu Hamza al-Qurayshi, replaced Abu
al-Hassan al-Muhajer who was killed the same month. Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi
has not released any audio messages since assuming his position as ISIS leader.
Thursday’s audio was apparently the third released by ISIS spokesman al-Qurayashi
since he took office. In January, he said the extremists will start a new phase
of attacks that will focus on Israel and blasted the US administration’s plan
for resolving the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Iran’s exports to India fall over 94 percent in first
quarter of 2020
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Thursday 28 May 2020
Iran’s exports to India fell by more than 94 percent in the first quarter of
2020, according to figures released by India’s Ministry of Finance on Thursday.
Iran’s exports to India were worth over $2 billion in the first quarter of last
year and over $3 billion in the same period in 2018. This figure fell below $80
million in the first quarter of this year. India’s exports to Iran have also
dropped by 38 percent in the first quarter of 2020 compared with the same period
last year. US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018
and launched a “maximum pressure” campaign against the regime in Tehran, saying
he wanted a more comprehensive deal that would cover nuclear issues, Iran’s
ballistic missile program and Iranian activities in the Middle East. Trump’s
sanctions on Tehran have devastated the Iranian economy. India, previously
Iran's second-largest oil customer after China, stopped buying Iranian oil in
the second half of last year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said last
month that it expects the total value of Iran’s exports to be $46 billion this
year, less than half of what it was in 2018.
Major attack on Israel’s water systems thwarted: Cyber chief
The Associated Press, Jerusalem/Friday 29 May 2020
Israel’s national cyber chief Thursday officially acknowledged the country had
thwarted a major cyber attack last month against its water systems, an assault
widely attributed to arch-enemy Iran, calling it a “synchronized and organized
attack” aimed at disrupting key national infrastructure. Yigal Unna did not
mention Iran directly, nor did he comment on the alleged Israeli retaliation two
weeks later said to have shut down a key Iranian port, but he said recent
developments have ushered in a new era of covert warfare, ominously warning that
“cyber winter is coming.” “Rapid is not something that describes enough how fast
and how crazy and hectic things are moving forward in cyberspace and I think we
will remember this last month and May 2020 as a changing point in the history of
modern cyber warfare,” he said in a video address to CybertechLive Asia, a
digital international cyber conference. “If the bad guys had succeeded in their
plot we would now be facing, in the middle of the corona crisis, very big damage
to the civilian population and a lack of water and even worse than that,” he
added. Israel and Iran are bitter foes who have engaged in years of covert
battles that have included high-tech hacking and cyberattacks. Most famously, US
and Israeli intelligence agencies are suspected of unleashing a computer worm
called Stuxnet years ago in an attempt to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program. But
Unna said the attempted hacking into Israel’s water systems marked the first
time in modern history that “we can see something like this aiming to cause
damage to real life and not to IT or data.”Had Israel’s National Cyber
Directorate not detected the attack in real time, he said chlorine or other
chemicals could have been mixed into the water source in the wrong proportions
and resulted in a “harmful and disastrous” outcome.
His office released a brief statement after the attempt, acknowledged it had
been thwarted and no damage had been caused. But Unna’s comments marked the
first official detailed account of what happened. “It is a part of some attack
over Israel and over the national security of Israel and not for financial
benefit,” he said. “The attack happened but the damage was prevented and that is
our goal and our mission. And now we are in the middle of preparing for the next
phase to come because it will come eventually.”
Trump's denounced tweet adds fuel to protesters' fire
AP, Washington/Friday 29 May 2020
President Donald Trump added fuel to racial fires Friday as he threatened to
take action to bring the city of Minneapolis “under control,” calling violent
protesters outraged by the death of a black man in police custody “thugs” and
reviving a civil-rights era phrase fraught with racist overtones.
“When the looting starts, the shooting starts,” Trump wrote in a tweet that was
quickly flagged by Twitter as violating rules against “glorifying violence.”The
White House said the president “did not glorify violence. He clearly condemned
it.”Trump’s comments came after protesters torched a Minneapolis police station
on Thursday night, capping three days of searing demonstrations over the death
of George Floyd, who was captured on video pleading for air as a white police
officer knelt on his neck. The president’s reaction — a day after he had decried
Floyd’s treatment and vowed justice for his family — underscored Trump’s
complicated relationship with race as he tries to maintain a law-and-order”
mantle while also trying to build his appeal among black voters during an
election year.
A protester carries a U.S. flag upside down, a sign of distress, next to a
burning building Thursday, May 28, 2020, in Minneapolis. Protests over the death
of And it highlighted his refusal to avoid controversy or cede the spotlight
even as the battered nation tries to make sense of another killing and reels
over the mounting COVID-19 death toll. Trump, in his tweets, borrowed a phrase
once used by former Miami Police Chief Walter Headley in a 1967 speech outlining
his department’s efforts to “combat young hoodlums who have taken advantage of
the civil rights campaign.”
In the speech, Headley said his department had been successful “because I’ve let
the word filter down that when the looting starts, the shooting starts.”
“We don’t mind being accused of police brutality,” he said in the same speech,
according to news reports from the time. The White House did not respond to
questions about where Trump had heard the phrase and what he meant by it, except
to say he was condemning violence. But criticism was swift.
“It’s not helpful,” said Minnesota’s Democratic Gov. Tim Walz, during a news
briefing Friday. “Anything we do to add fuel to that fire is really, really
challenging.”Kentucky’s Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, speaking on CNN, called on
Trump to retract it. “During these times, we can condemn violence while also
trying to listen, to understand, to know that there is deep frustration,
rightfully so, in our country – that there has not been enough action on
creating equality, opportunity, and in health care, and in a time of this
COVID-19 epidemic, it’s laid bare all of that,” he said. And Jeffery Robinson,
the director of the American Civil Liberties Union’s Trone Center for Justice
and Equality, said Trump’s message was “hypocritical, immoral, and illegal.”
Twitter’s action Friday morning marked the second time this week that the social
media giant has flagged the president’s content, this time adding a warning
label that prevented it from being shared or liked.
The White House, trying to skirt the blockage, reposted the message on its own
official Twitter account Friday morning. Twitter quickly flagged that tweet,
too, thus accusing the White House of promoting violence.
Floyd’s death and fury it has sparked are set against the backdrop of a heated
presidential election and competing political priorities for the president.
Trump has been accused of stoking racial tensions and exploiting divisions for
personal gain since long before he ran for president, beginning with the
full-page ads he ran in 1989 calling for the death penalty for the Central Park
Five, five young men of color who were wrongly convicted of assaulting a white
jogger.
Trump – who rarely holds his tongue – has been silent in the face a long list of
high-profile police-involved killings of black men, including Eric Garner, who
died after being placed in a chokehold by police and whose dying words, “I can’t
breathe,” became a rallying cry for the Black Lives Matter movement. (Trump has
instead invoked those words on several occasions to mock political rivals, even
bringing his hands to his neck for dramatic effect.)
Since even before his 2016 campaign, Trump has portrayed himself as a staunch
defender of law and order. He has often spoken in front of law enforcement
groups, and in one speech appeared to advocate for the rougher treatment of
people in custody, speaking dismissively of the police practice of shielding the
heads of handcuffed suspects as they are being placed in patrol cars.
At the same time, Trump and his campaign have tried to make inroads with black
Americans, particularly after his presumptive Democratic opponent, former Vice
President Joe Biden, suggested last week that black voters who support Trump
“ain’t black.”
A bedrock of the Democratic base, black Americans are unlikely to embrace Trump
en masse, but his campaign believes even a marginal shift could make a
difference – and send a message to white voters uneasy about the president’s
charged rhetoric. Meanwhile, the unrest complicates the Trump campaign’s plans
for Minnesota, one of the key swing states he hopes to win in November.
Trump’s back-and-forth with Twitter comes a day after he signed an executive
order challenging the site’s protections against lawsuits as he accuses it of
stifling conservative voices.
The company said it had flagged Trump’s latest tweet “in the interest of
preventing others from being inspired to commit violent acts,” but kept it
accessible to users because they felt it was “important that the public still be
able to see the Tweet given its relevance to ongoing matters of public
importance.”Supporters of the president balked at the move. “It seems like
they’re carrying out a vendetta against the president,” Republican Rep. Steve
Scalise, the No. 2 GOP House leader, said on Fox News Friday.
The Iraq Report: Pro-Iran MPs demand Saudi 'reparations'
for suicide bombers
The New Arab/May 29/2020
Mustafa al-Kadhimi's new government has not been in power for a month and it is
already facing significant hurdles arising from internal divisions within the
Iraqi parliament and the public's rapidly dwindling trust in the Iraqi prime
minister to be able to effect real change in the war-ravaged country.
While on the one hand Kadhimi sought to reassure the Iran-backed parliamentary
blocs and Shia militant groups that he would not undermine them, he has
simultaneously reached out to Iran's rival Saudi Arabia to seek financial
support. This has led to a parliamentary revolt by the former ruling coalition,
which has very close ties to Iran.Kadhimi's affectionate display of loyalty to
pro-Iran groups that was filmed and widely circulated has also put him at odds
with the Iraqi public, who have been calling for Iran's excision from Iraqi
politics since October last year.
His failure, even at this early juncture, to hold them to account has been
exacerbated by reports from the United Nations that hundreds of Iraqi protesters
had indeed been abducted, forcibly disappeared, and tortured, placing the
long-term success of Kadhimi's government in doubt.
Kadhimi courts Saudi money as rivals seek to undermine Riyadh
Iraqi finance minister and acting oil minister, Ali Allawi, arrived in the Saudi
Arabian capital of Riyadh on an official visit last Friday and held meetings
with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud over the weekend in
signs of thawing ties between the two Arab countries.
Mustafa al-Kadhimi's new government has not been in power for a month and it is
already facing significant hurdles arising from internal divisions
The Kingdom is set to invest in an Iraqi natural gas field and will also loan
Baghdad $3 billion to partially cover Iraq's budget deficit and address its
liquidity problems, according to a statement on Saturday by Bin Farhan.
The statement also revealed Riyadh would be restoring its ambassador to Baghdad,
reversing a 2016 decision to withdraw former envoy Samer al-Sabhan after the
diplomat was accused of issuing inflammatory statements by the Iraqi government
who were in turn accused of meddling in Saudi Arabia's internal affairs. "The
instructions of King Salman were issued to reflect the Kingdom's desire to
strengthen relations between the two countries," Bin Farhan said after his
meeting with Allawi.
Saudi Prince Khalid bin Salman, Deputy Minister of Defence and son of the ruling
king, said the kingdom is rooting for Iraq. "We hope Iraq reverts to being one
of the strong Arab pillars that stands strong, and that its people live the life
they deserve in peace," Prince Khalid bin Salman said.
"The kingdom stands by Iraq to support its advancement, peace and brotherhood
with its Arab neighbours," the prince added. While this may take the appearance
of a diplomatic win for Kadhimi's nascent government, it has come at a domestic
price that is likely to outrage and infuriate the Saudis.
The New Arab's Arabic-language service reported on Thursday that a group of Shia
Islamist lawmakers close to Iran have begun to try to pass legislation that
would target Saudi Arabian "suicide bombers" and force Riyadh to pay reparations
and damages to Iraqi victims of terrorism perpetrated by Saudi nationals.
The bill, being primarily pushed by the State of Law Coalition who ruled Iraq
under the Shia Islamist Dawa Party and ex-premier Nouri al-Maliki, is proposed
to be similar to the US' Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, better known
by its JASTA acronym which was passed in the dying days of the Obama
administration and facilitated legal claims against Saudi Arabia's alleged role
in the 9/11 terror attacks.
Iraqi lawmakers loyal to Iran have charged Saudi Arabia with not doing enough to
prevent its citizens from travelling to Iraq to fight the jihad against the
US-led occupation from 2003, and MPs have said that "thousands" of Saudis joined
terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda and crossed over into the country from
neighbouring Syria.Iraq's finance minister and acting oil minister recently
visited Riyadh in signs of thawing ties between the two Arab countries
Saad Al-Muttalibi – a senior State of Law official who once admitted his
government had perpetrated war crimes on international television – said that
"hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have been killed by acts of terrorism" and that
Saudi Arabia in particular should be held accountable.
If passed, the bill would have little impact on Saudi Arabia in a direct
fashion. After all, Iraq is not a comparable power to the United States whose
passing of the JASTA bill caused significant damage to US-Saudi ties. Saudi
would also never pay reparations or damages to Iraq and would fear no
repercussions as Baghdad would be simply too powerless to act.
However, the timing of this announcement by pro-Iran lawmakers to pass
legislation to hold Saudi Arabia accountable for the actions of citizens Riyadh
itself considers to be terrorists can only be viewed in light of Kadhimi's
attempt to foster relations with the Kingdom which has historically been viewed
as a threat to Iranian interests in Iraq.
It is not yet clear if the State of Law bloc can cut the right kind of deals to
push such a bill through, but the mere threat of one shows significant hostility
towards Saudi Arabia and Riyadh will be looking carefully at how Kadhimi
addresses this affront to the Saudis who he had only just returned from cap in
hand.
Riyadh once threw its financial weight behind radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr
who was even invited to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Sadr had
made all the right noises of being anti-Iran which attracted the attention of
the Saudi royal.
However, this later turned out to be a poor investment as Sadr later turned on
the crown prince, essentially branding his grandfather and founder of Saudi
Arabia, King Abdulaziz Al Saud, as a heretic, an act known as takfir in Arabic
which is taboo. Sadr's parliamentary bloc, Sairoun, has also actively worked
with Iran-backed factions much to Riyadh's chagrin.
UN confirms Iraqi protesters had been abducted, tortured
Hundreds of Iraqis who were involved in anti-government demonstrations since
October last year have been subjected to human rights violations, including
torture, according to a new report released by the United Nations last Saturday.
The United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq, UNAMI, documented 154
allegations of missing protesters and human rights activists, stating that they
had credible allegations of demonstrators being forcibly disappeared, abducted,
tortured, and sexually molested.
Shia Islamist lawmakers close to Iran have begun to try to pass legislation that
would target Saudi Arabian 'suicide bombers' and force Riyadh to pay reparations
and damages to Iraqi victims
In every incident, those targeted for abductions had either participated in the
protests or provided support to demonstrators, UNAMI said. Nearly all of the
abductees were either activists prior to the protests, played significant roles
in the demonstrations, or criticised authorities or armed groups on social
media, it added. Abductees were forced into vehicles by masked and armed men
close to demonstration sites, according to UNAMI. Many described being
blindfolded and driven to locations where they were detained.
All of them were "interrogated" by their captors, with questioning commonly
focused on their role in the demonstrations, allegations of links to foreign
states - particularly the United States - and their political affiliations.
All male abductees described being subjected to torture such as severe beatings,
electrocution, hosing or bathing in cold water, being hung from the ceiling by
their arms and legs, being urinated on, being photographed nude, death threats
and threats to their families, UNAMI reported.
Iraq's protest movement, named the "October Revolution", called for sweeping
changes and a decisive end to the current system imposed after the 2003 US
occupation, which marked the inception of a ruling system shaped by sectarian
and religious division.
Demonstrators were met with a brutal crackdown by security forces and
Iran-backed Shia militias, with at least 700 killed and thousands injured. In a
statement on Twitter, the Iraqi government said it had reviewed UNAMI's report
and will launch an investigation into the matter.
"The [Iraqi Government] affirms its commitment to protecting human rights, to
hold impartial and independent investigation, as stated in the government
programme, into the events outlined in this report, and to respecting relevant
international conventions that Iraq is party to," it said.
The UNAMI report also outlined a lack of accountability, as the few victims who
pursued criminal complaints for their treatment either received no response from
authorities or were encouraged not to pursue their cases further.
UNAMI's report was preceded by pledges by Prime Minister Kadhimi when he took
office that he would deal with the "legitimate demands" of the protesters and
that he would bring any groups who had harmed demonstrators to justice.
Hundreds of Iraqis who were involved in anti-government demonstrations since
October last year have been subjected to human rights violations, including
torture, according to a new report released by the UN
While many reports have made it clear that Iran-linked groups with close ties to
the government in Baghdad have been heavily involved in anti-demonstrator
violence and killings, Kadhimi was filmed offering profuse praise to militia
commanders who had been implicated in attacks against protesters.
Iraqi activists and protesters had already made it clear they had little faith
in Kadhimi being able to provide them with the change he promised, but the video
of him paying homage to sectarian and violent militia leaders sent what remained
of his popularity into a tailspin.
Should Kadhimi fail to be seen to be seriously dealing with these militias and
Iran's malign influence over Iraq's internal affairs, it is likely his
administration will not last in the face of pro-Iran political groups seeking to
sabotage him and an enraged public seeking to oust him.
The Iraq Report is a fortnightly feature at The New Arab.
Cyprus Approves EastMed Pipeline Agreement
Athens - Abdul Sattar Barakat/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 29 May, 2020
The Cypriot government approved on Thursday a bill on the intergovernmental
agreement for the Eastern Mediterranean pipeline project. Energy Minister
Giorgos Lakkotrypis said the bill will be referred the parliament for approval.
The deal to build an undersea pipeline to carry gas from new offshore deposits
in the southeastern Mediterranean to continental Europe was signed by Greece,
Israel and Cyprus on January 2 in Athens. Lakkotrypis said the agreement
includes provisions allowing Italy to sign whenever it is ready. According to
the minister, the deal is necessary to organize various issues among the
concerned countries, such as maritime judicial rulings and environmental and
security issues. “It also establishes a joint working group to monitor and
implement the necessary work for the project.”Lakkotrypis said technical studies
are underway for the 35-million-euro worth pipeline project, which is funded by
the European Commission. “The cost of these studies is estimated at tens of
millions of euros,” he stressed, noting that relevant countries are convinced
that this project can be implemented. Asked whether the coronavirus pandemic has
affected the prospects for cooperation, he said the countries involved in such a
mega project don’t just take into account current conditions, instead they put
plans for several years ahead. Soon, the consortium will proceed with its effort
to find buyers for natural gas, he added, stressing that this factor plays a
major role in determining whether the project’s implementation is possible.
Palestinian Authority Welcomes Any Initiative to Stop
Annexation Plan
Ramallah - Kifah Zboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 29 May, 2020
Palestinian officials have welcomed any initiative to salvage the peace process
despite a decision by President Mahmoud Abbas to end all agreements with Israel
and the US, including security coordination with Israel. “We kept the door open
to any serious initiative that aims to revive an international multifaceted
peace process,” Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh told EU parliament
members during a videoconference on Thursday. “The success of a peace process is
linked to an honest meditator, clear principles, a serious partner and a defined
timeframe,” he said.
The PM said Israel violated all signed agreements with the Palestinian
Authority. “We cannot continue to unilaterally respect those agreements,”
Shtayyeh added. He stressed the importance of an EU role in confronting Israeli
settlements and continuous attempts to undermine the sovereignty and
independence of the State of Palestine. The PA is holding intense talks with
several countries to prevent Israel from implementing its plan to annex parts of
the occupied West Bank. The plan would slam the door on fresh negotiations and
threaten efforts to advance regional and international peace. Shtayyeh had
warned that Israel’s annexation of Palestinian territory would wipe out
international law and threaten regional security. This week, the PLO Executive
Committee confirmed Abbas’ recent announcement on renouncing all agreements and
understandings with Israel and the US. On Thursday, the International Criminal
Court (ICC) requested clarifications from the PA regarding his decision, Omar
Awadallah, a Palestinian Foreign Ministry official, said. The Court asked
Palestine to "provide additional information on this matter, including with
regard to the Oslo agreements between Palestine and Israel,” said Awadallah,
noting that “the Court will shoulder its responsibilities as the party
investigating the crimes in Palestine, and that the declaration will not affect
Palestine's status on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, along
with the subsequent recognition by the countries of the world and the change of
its status to an observer member in the United Nations in 2012.”
OPEC+ Output Cuts Likely to be Extended Until End of
2020
London/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 29 May, 2020
Saudi Arabia and some other OPEC oil producers are considering extending record
high output cuts until the end of 2020 but have yet to win support from Russia,
OPEC+ and Russian industry sources told Reuters.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers led by
Russia, a group known as OPEC+, agreed last month to cut output by 9.7 million
barrels per day (bpd) in May and June.
The coronavirus pandemic has worsened oversupply in the oil market by slashing
demand which has in turn hammered prices. So instead of easing their output cuts
come July, several OPEC+ sources told Reuters there are discussions led by de
facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia about sustaining those cuts. “The Saudis see that
the market still needs support and want to roll over the same cuts until end of
the year. The Russians also want the same but the problem again is with the oil
companies,” one OPEC+ source said. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak met
with domestic major oil companies on Tuesday to discuss the possible extension
of the current level of cuts beyond June. Sources familiar with Russian oil
thinking said no decision was made as opinions are divided, with some arguing
Moscow should wait to see demand levels as airlines begin to fly again. “Of
course if we are told to continue with the cuts, we will obey. But if the demand
is OK, we don’t see a reason to change the deal,” said one source at a Russian
oil company, referring to the current pact calling for cuts through June.
Russia’s Novak had said he expected the oil market to balance out in June/July
as oil demand recovers amid easing lockdowns. The Russian source agreed with
that assessment, which may show that Moscow sees no need for changes to the
current deal. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman agreed during a telephone call on further “close coordination” on oil
output restrictions. The OPEC+ group is due to hold an online conference in the
second week of June to discuss their output policy.
Venezuelans may soon suffer the bad fortune of closer ties to Iran
Con Coughlin/The National/May 29/2020
The arrival of an Iranian petrol tanker in Venezuela this week threatens to
renew friction in the Americas
On the face of it, Iran’s decision to send shipments of fuel to Venezuela can be
seen as an act of desperation, whereby two countries that have been brought to
their knees by international isolation seek to help each other overcome their
difficulties. Both Iran and Venezuela, for very different reasons, have been
subjected to harsh economic sanctions that have had a devastating impact on
their respective economies.
Tehran has been hit by one of the most severe sanctions regimes the world has
ever seen because of Washington's objections to its nuclear programme, and its
persistent meddling in the Middle East.
Handout photo released by the Venezuelan Ministry of Popular Power for
Communication and Information (Minci) showing the Iranian-flagged oil tanker
Fortune arriving at the El Palito refinery in Puerto Cabello, in the northern
state of Carabobo, Venezuela, on May 25, 2020. The first of five Iranian tankers
carrying much-needed gasoline and oil derivatives docked in Venezuela on Monday,
Caracas announced amid concern in Washington over the burgeoning relationship
between countries it sees as international pariahs.
As far as Venezuela is concerned, the dispute between Caracas and Washington has
a more ideological outlook, with the right-wing Trump administration refusing to
engage with the hard-left socialist government of President Nicolas Maduro.
Having overseen the devastating collapse of the Venezuelan economy, the origins
of which date back to the rule of Mr Maduro’s charismatic predecessor, Hugo
Chavez, the government in Caracas now finds itself desperate for any form of
economic assistance to head off mounting anti-government protests.
It is in this context that the Iranian government, which has experienced its own
difficulties with anti-regime protests over its inept management of the economy,
has offered to come to Venezuela’s aid by sending a flotilla of tankers to
provide Mr Maduro with much-needed economic support in his hour of need.
Thus the arrival of the first Iranian oil tanker, the Fortune, in Venezuela this
week was hailed as a national victory by the Maduro government: a clear
demonstration that, for all the economic pressure applied by Washington, the
Venezuelan regime still has allies.
The arrival of the tankers, though, represents a hollow victory for the
Venezuelan leader.
The importance of the Iranian lifeline to Venezuela, which Tehran has compared
with the Berlin airlift the Allies conducted during the Cold War, was reflected
in the fact that Caracas ordered Venezuelan fighter jets to escort the Iranian
convoy on the last leg of its journey to protect it against any possible
military intervention on the part of the US.
In all, a total of five ships will deliver an estimated 1.5 million barrels of
Iranian fuel, with the deliveries, according to reports, being paid for with
Venezuelan gold. In a tweet posted shortly after the arrival of the first
tanker, Mr Maduro wrote: “Thanks Iran – only the brotherhood of free peoples
will save us.”
The arrival of the tankers, though, represents a hollow victory for the
Venezuelan leader. Venezuela, an Opec state, sits on the world’s biggest oil
reserves and was once a major oil producer. But decades of economic
mismanagement by successive socialist governments, as well as lack of investment
and the effects of US sanctions, have brought the industry to its knees.
Consequently, the national oil refineries have become so dilapidated that they
are no longer able to produce petrol for domestic consumption.
This has left Caracas in the humiliating position of having to import it from
other rogue states such as Iran. Moreover, the country’s severe fuel crisis has
only served to increase popular disquiet with Mr Maduro’s administration.
In recent weeks, the crisis has become so acute that people are spending days
queuing at petrol stations, with many being forced to walk miles to work.
And while the Iranian delivery will help to ease the shortages in the short
term, they are unlikely to provide a long-term solution to Mr Maduro’s
difficulties.
Oil experts believe that Iran has only been able to undertake the deliveries
because a shortage of domestic demand for fuel in Iran caused by the coronavirus
pandemic means it has a rare surplus of supplies.
But this will end as the country begins to return to normal, thereby limiting
Iran’s ability to carry out further exports to Venezuela.
This may well explain Washington’s disinclination to take much interest in the
transaction. While the official position of the Trump administration is to
maintain its support for Venezuela’s opposition leader, Juan Guaido, who
President Donald Trump described during his State of the Union address as “the
true and legitimate president of Venezuela”, the White House has shown no real
interest in involving itself in the country’s domestic turmoil.
The American attitude to the petrol shipment was summed up by Elliott Abrams,
the US special representative to Venezuela.
“You have two pariah states finding that they are able to exchange things they
need for things they have,” Mr Abrams said.
Of greater concern for Washington would be any attempt by Iran to deepen its
ties with Venezuela to the point where they pose a threat to America’s southern
flank. The two countries have a decades-long relationship going back to Mr
Chavez, who formed a close alliance with Iran’s then president, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad. Under Mr Chavez, the Iranians ran car factories and cement plants
and built thousands of homes.
Now concerns are being raised in US security circles that Iran might seek to
build on its deepening engagement with Mr Maduro to extend its presence in
Venezuela. Tehran has been looking for ways to undermine the US since Mr Trump
authorised the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force,
in January. Admiral Craig Faller, commander of US Southern Command, warned this
week that the objective of Iran’s fuel deal with Caracas was to “gain positional
advantage in our neighbourhood in a way that would counter US interests”. And if
Iran really is serious about building its influence in Venezuela to use the
country as a launch pad against the US, then Washington is likely to take a much
closer interest in any future deals, trade or otherwise, that take place between
Caracas and Tehran.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph’s defence and foreign affairs editor
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
May 29-30/2020
Their Cause Remains Alive!
Akram Bunni/Asharq Al Awsat/May 29/2020
On the morning of Eid, Khawla could not think of a place to visit where she
could honor her husband, who had been killed in a Syrian regime prison, other
than the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in the European city where she had taken
refuge. She had started planning this idea during the last few days of Ramadan,
desperate to maintain the change that she had seen in her two young daughters’
state of mind. For the first time, she saw them beam with pride in their
martyred father. After months of mourning and anguish, she saw that they were
gushing to honor him with a visit to this monument, which perhaps appeared to
them as an embodiment of the unknown victims who had silently sacrificed what
had been most dear to them for their rights and freedoms.
When she took a chance, riding the sea waves to get to Europe, she would dream
of a stable and safe life for her daughters and of reuniting with her husband
before long. She had hoped that he would eventually be released, since he had
not carried arms nor hurt anyone and had been imprisoned on the mere suspicion
that he had taken part in one of the peaceful protests that had engulfed most of
the districts of the Syrian capital. However, less than a year ago, his family
told her that they had recently received notice of his death from the secretary
of the civil register. She did not hide this news from her daughters; she tried
to feign strength and resolve as she told them that their father had been killed
because he dreamed of a better and more beautiful country, like the one where
they now lived.
Initially, she was worried that her daughters did not accept this final loss
that had shrouded their lives with deep sorrow. She tried to alleviate their
suffering over the fate of their father and his choices, putting it in the
context of collective sacrifice by Syrians. He was one of the hundreds of
thousands who were unjustly arrested and forcibly disappeared in prison.
She tried to encourage them to look through social media in search of news or
pieces of information that illustrate the oppression that the Syrian people are
suffering from. She once showed them the activities and manifestations of human
sympathy that were invoked by the dissemination of photos of the regime’s
victims, known as the “Caesar photos”. She did not hesitate to exaggerate the
magnitude of this sympathy and the number of rights organizations that demanded
that the Syrian regime be held accountable and tried. She also encouraged them
to join the Syrian “freedom bus” that carried the photos of many detainees and
roamed European cities. She also encouraged them to take part in a sit-in for
the mothers and wives of the disappeared that was held in front of the Syrian
embassy to demand that the fate of their sons be revealed.
A third time, she tried to bring to their attention the decision that the German
court had taken to hold a trial for Jamil Hassan and Ali Mamlouk, two prominent
officers in the Syrian institution of repression, and demand that the Interpol
arrest them. She was delighted when her younger daughter asked about the
likelihood of Hassan being arrested in Beirut after he had received treatment at
one of its hospitals and that her daughter became interested in persecuting the
perpetrators who had violated her father and the other detainees.
However, her most successful attempt was convincing the two girls to attend the
German trial of one of the officers of the al-Khateeb security branch in
Damascus, where her husband had been detained. She wanted them to witness a
scene that would reassure them that their father’s blood had not been spilled in
vain and that this was the beginning of the process of holding all perpetrators
of crimes against humanity in Syria accountable.
Her determination to attend the trial was not hampered by the claim that the
officer had defected from the regime and taken part in some of the opposition’s
activities because, in her opinion, the issue pertains to the crimes he had
committed against individual human beings, as stated by the survivors who had
testified to his role in torturing them and raping female detainees or
facilitating their rape. Her resolve was strengthened by her belief that if his
defection from the Syrian regime and his objection to its actions were genuine,
he would be compelled to reveal the shocking facts. She thought: where is the
harm in being questioned and held accountable before a court that he had
acknowledged as independent and just?
She was also not discouraged by others saying that trying an officer who did not
belong to the ruling Alawite class would turn attention away from those who are
actually responsible, because she had been raised to see killers as killers,
regardless of their religion, gender or position. The crimes against humanity
committed by Islamist terrorism are the same as the crimes committed by the
regime, even if the latter’s crimes were more grotesque, severe and creative.
She became even more certain of her position when she saw how this executioner
dealt with the accusations against him: He downplayed his crimes against
innocent people, saying: “My task was to interrogate detainees. I was in a
critical position, I was not always able to deal with them moderately”, or how
he shifted all of the responsibility from himself onto his superiors or
investigators in other security branches, turning the scene into a kind of silly
back and forth, pointing to the names of other officers and the torture methods
that they had used had become known and are now being legally investigated.
More importantly, her eyes lit up with joy as she watched her daughters interact
with the witnesses and their families, how they went from one group to the next
to introduce themselves as the daughters of a martyr of the Syrian revolution
who had been killed by authoritarian treachery. She watched how they became
among the victims who were eager to expose all the torture and killing that had
taken place inside the prisons of the regime and intelligence services and they
wanted to give their testimony in pursuit of justice for the crimes committed in
Syria.
A few days after their return, when her elder daughter surprised her with a
question about the definition of transitional justice, Khawla did not try to
find out how this idea had occurred to her daughter; instead, they researched
together the meaning of this notion online, and its relation to what was
happening with them. They found out that it was one the rules of thumb for
turning the page after protracted civil wars and that it was a way for Syria to
rid itself of some of the heavy burdens and painful remnants of the bloody
conflict and the extreme violence that have persisted for nine consecutive
years. They were relieved to know that it had nothing to do with vengeance;
rather, that it had to do with fairly trying and persecuting criminals and those
complicit with them, as well as securing the rights of all those who had been
damaged and their families, compensating and remembering them. They were also
very much relieved by the fact that without addressing this humanitarian file,
the massive gaps caused by years of war cannot be bridged and it would not be
possible to build a free nation that respects human rights, tolerance and
coexistence.
China is Sending Mixed Signals
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/May 29/2020
Is China frightening or is it frightened?
An examination of decisions made in last week’s annual session of the National
People’s Congress (NPC), reveals that she may be both. Or to put it another way,
as on occasions in the past decades of Communist rule, China could become
frightening because it is frightened.
Billed as a parliament in the Western media, the NPC is a strange beast.
It is certainly meant to approve draft laws submitted by the leadership and, in
theory at least, could weigh on policy debates and act as watchdog over the
general state of things in the People’s Republic.
However, equally certainly, it cannot be regarded as a parliament in the
generally accepted sense of the term. Yet, it is not as some Sinpohobes assert,
a mere rubber-stamp either. It may be a small aquarium compared to the huge
ocean that is China, but it does provide an opportunity to see the fish allowed
to swim in it, and to assert the size of each.
So what did the aquarium put on show this time?
The first thing to note is that the giant purge of the dramatis personae,
forecast by some China specialists, did not happen. President Xi Jinping did
reassert his leadership with Premier Li Kepiang as his sidekick. Overall, what
we witnessed was cautious retrenchment rather than a daring reshuffle. It seems
that the Xi team decided it was no time to upset the apple cart, a first sign of
being frightened.
A second sign of being frightened came when the long advertised anti-corruption
drive, expected to provide the headline for the delayed congress, was reduced to
a few rhetorical tropes.
Fear may have also been the driving force behind the rushed passage of a shabby
piece legislation designed to muzzle domestic critics, especially
“pro-democracy” activists in Hong Kong. Inventing charges for which no legal
definition is suggested the party leadership could charge any over-enthusiastic
twitterer with high treason.
It may have also been out of fear that the party decided to abandon its 30-year
policy of playing by the book on international agreements when the NPC gave the
signal for challenging the “one country-two systems” accord under which Britain
handed Hong Kong over to the People’s Republic in 1997.
The same fear, but this time in reverse, may have inspired the NPC’s unusual
focus on Taiwan with emphasis on the sacrosanct nature of the 1992 Cross-strait
“consensus”, recalling the “One China” principle which is increasingly
questioned in Taiwan.
To be sure, there was no sabre rattling and Beijing leaders were wise enough not
to evoke the old days of mischief-making through North Korea. And, yet, it is
clear that Beijing is frightened of the contagion of democracy not only from
Honk Kong but also from Taiwan which has shown that a highly prosperous and
reasonably democratic “China” need not remain a pipedream.
The Beijing leadership is aware that the old Maoist revolution that culminated
in the creation of the People’s Republic and the annexation of East Turkestan,
Tibet, Manchuria, and Inner Mongolia is no longer a sufficient basis for its
legitimacy. Since the 1990s, therefore, it has sought new bases for its claim to
legitimacy, including the peaceful “recovery” of Honk Kong and Macao and the
establishment of working relations with Taiwan.
But the regime’s chief claim to legitimacy is based on economic success that has
lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty and created a new middle-class. That
success has, in turn, helped the Peoples Republic’s gain international
recognition and respect.
The Covid-19 crisis has cast a shadow on that narrative.
Beijing’s international image has been tarnished by a number of faux-pas and
outright mauvaise-foi. An economic downturn that has led to the nation’s first
fall in gross domestic product, estimated at around 10 percent, has already
triggered a tsunami of unemployment with over 130 million people made redundant,
at least for the foreseeable future.
A year ago Beijing propaganda was imitating the “American dream” shibboleth by
boasting about a “Chinese dream” to be realized at the end of the rainbow
represented by the “Belt and Road” extravaganza.
The prospect of that dream being postponed is too frightening for a regime that
lacks a credible mechanism for power-sharing across society. In similar cases,
most authoritarian regimes look for a foreign foe to blame for all that is not
going well. Talk of a new strategic partnership between China and Russia found
echoes in the NPC with Chinese money and Russian technology billed as natural
ingredients in a new alchemy for world domination. No mention was made that
China may run out of money and that Russian technology may be of archaeological
interest. Taking a dig at the “West” is always an easy means of obfuscation for
an authoritarian regime in trouble
It is, therefore, no surprise that the NPC heard calls for China “not to imitate
the Western model of development “and seek “its own path to advancement.”
That pseudo-philosophical version of nationalism was accompanied with blaming
the United Sates for seeking to trigger a new Cold War against China.
Trouble is that the US does not have a coherent, strategically meaningful,
policy towards China. Rhetorical flourishes and diplomatic gesticulations do not
amount to a policy worthy of a great power in a relationship of rivalry and
partnership with another. Imposing largely symbolic sanctions is like parking
your car because you don’t know where you want to go.
One thing is certain: The Covid-19 crisis and the economic downturn that
accompanies it dictate a new look at a world order under pressure.
In that new look determining China’s proper place would be of crucial
importance. “Sadly, the issue does not seem to prominently feature in the
current US presidential campaign. Dealing with China in the context of a
reformed world order could not be achieved through name calling even of the
colorful kind used by those who emulate Kaiser Wilhelm’s “Yellow Peril” cliché.
The Pandemic is Exposing the Limits of Science
Ferdinando Giugliano/Bloomberg/May 29/2020
The 2008 financial crisis led the public to discover the limits of economics.
The COVID-19 pandemic risks having the same effect on scientists and medical
doctors.
Since the start of the outbreak, citizens have struggled to get clear answers to
some basic questions. Consider masks, for example: The World Health Organization
said early on that there was no point in encouraging healthy people to use them,
but now most doctors agree that widespread mask-wearing is a good idea. There
was also confusion around lockdowns: In the United Kingdom, scientists argued
for weeks over the merits of closing businesses and keeping people at home — a
quarrel that may have cost the country lives. And now that the outbreak is
fading in Italy, there is growing debate between the country’s public health
experts and doctors over whether the virus has lost strength or remains just as
deadly.
These disputes are only natural since we are dealing with a novel coronavirus
that caught most Western health care systems off-guard. Meanwhile, scientists
across the world have raced to share data, and a number of companies have ramped
up work on a vaccine, which could be one of the fastest-developed in human
history. And yet, the pandemic has reminded us that science — and medicine in
particular — has limits. In a way, the last few months have resembled what
occurred in the 2008 crisis, as economists fought over the right response to the
crash. The academic community split between those who said the US government
should save all large banks and those who said it should let Lehman Brothers go
bust. In Europe, the controversy centered around whether countries should pursue
austerity or run large-scale budget deficits. These divisions, and the ensuing
policy mistakes, dented economists’ reputation in the eyes of the general
public. The comparison with 2008 is fitting because economists are faring
relatively well during this pandemic. True, there was some initial support,
including from the European Central Bank and the UK Treasury, for the idea that
the outbreak would be followed by a rapid "V-shaped” recovery — and this
hypothesis has lost ground as we’ve braced for a longer and deeper slump.
However, economists were quick to reach consensus that governments and central
banks should expand fiscal and monetary policy, to boost demand as lockdowns
crushed economic activity. Regulators, too, acted swiftly, giving banks greater
flexibility to keep lending to companies and individuals. It is still early
days, but the overall impression of economics is that of a united professional
and academic body, one that did not let the financial crisis go to waste but
instead learned from it.
On the other hand, scientists and medical doctors have struggled to convey a
unified message to the public. This does not mean they have failed in their
duty. Far from it. Health-care professionals are the true heroes of this crisis,
risking their lives to protect the rest of us.
But on a range of issues — from containing the virus to prescribing effective
treatments — we have seen some scientists and doctors jump to conclusions, only
for others to give immediate rebuttals. (The contention over the efficacy of
hydroxychloroquine is one example.) This seesawing has added to the sense of
panic and confusion among ordinary citizens. It is often said that economics is
not a science, because one cannot make hard predictions. As the pandemic has
shown, even the natural sciences struggle when faced with a new phenomenon.
Research does not produce immediate answers. Scientists, doctors and public
health experts should not be afraid to say clearly how much they do not yet
know.
The aftermath of Qassem Soleimani's death and his
daughter's rise to prominence
Hollie McKay/Fox News/May 29/2020
It has been almost five months since President Trump shocked the world by
authorizing a strike to kill Iran's top spymaster and shadowy commander, Qassem
Soleimani.
Fears of mass retaliation and a sinister spike in violence that would endanger
U.S. troops and potentially lead to a full-blown war were instantly ignited.
Baghdad threatened to kick the Americans out of the country, and woes of a more
profound destabilization ensued, worries that Iran's proxy militias would grow
even more out of control grew and many lamented that the blindsiding decision by
the American commander in chief would bring animosity between Washington and
Tehran to a tipping point.
So what, exactly, has been the fallout?
"Once again, the critics of Trump's Iran policy are wrong. There was no WW3
after the removal of the Islamic Republic's most important military official
from the battlefield," Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for
the Defense of Democracies (FDD), told Fox News. "Four months since that
game-changing strike, Iran's proxy network continues to operate, but without the
charismatic and cunning terrorist who coordinated their efforts. Now is the time
to ramp up the pressure on this network."
But as part of its campaign to keep the Soleimani legacy alive, Tehran has this
year been steadily building the profile of the dead commander's 28-year-old
daughter, Zeinab Soleimani. Little it is known about the general's personal
life, other than he is survived by three sons and two daughters, but Zeinab
catapulted into the limelight immediately after her father's death, by vowing to
large crowds of mourners that "U.S. soldiers' families will spend their days
waiting for the death of their children."
In late January, Zeinab met with Hezbollah leader General Hassan Nasrallah in
Beirut and tweeted a video of the encounter with the caption "the spider nests
of America and Zionists will collapse." Moreover, she has referred to Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad and Houthi leader in Yemen, Abdalmalek Houthi, as her
"uncles."
"As a revolutionary regime, the Islamic republic is always looking for icons
which can be used in its propaganda machine to reproduce its narrative. Zainab
Soleimani has all the hallmarks," Malik said. "With minimum cost, she can help
indoctrinate young women who are seen as mothers who bring up the next
generation of the revolution."
Although crippled by the coronavirus, of which Iran has been the most deeply
impacted country in the Middle East, along with its embarrassing and tragic
shooting down – and cover-up – of the Ukrainian airliner in the immediate
aftermath of the Jan. 3 Soleimani slaying, Iran has purported to show strength
in other ways. It is what foreign policy experts deem a bid to prove it will not
appear feeble under pressure as it postures beneath the murky line of taking
pride in its fortitude while playing the victim card.
THE MASTER BEHIND THE MASK: WHO IS IRAN'S MOST FEARED AND POWERFUL MILITARY
COMMANDER?
In late April, Iran ratcheted up its own display of nationalism when it launched
a satellite – a move that U.S. officials referred to as a "provocation" given
that the Defense Intelligence Agency last year reported that space launch
vehicles could be utilized as a proving ground "for developing an ICBM,"
although military analysts have since argued that Iran's machinery is far too
limited to serve as an intercontinental ballistic missile.
"The level of Iranian reprisals thus far certainly has not risen to match the
significance of the Soleimani killing, but this should not be seen as an
indication that Iran has abandoned its desire to seriously harm U.S. interests
in the Middle East," warned Jordan Steckler, research analyst at United Against
Nuclear Iran (UANI). "Even the coronavirus has not fully slowed Iran's malign
targeting of the U.S. The regime has followed a familiar playbook, continuing
external aggression to distract from its own corruption and ineptitude."
But according to one Iraqi intelligence source, who requested anonymity due to
safety precautions, the assassination of Soleimani has had a profound
aftereffect.
"Iran really utilized him as a real foreign policy preacher and enforcer across
the entire Middle East and Russia and Afghanistan, he was the real boss and had
relationships no one else had," the source explained. "The IRCG is not the same.
It's going to take them a long while to build that back up and figure who he
knew. He did everything his own way and didn't have to ask permission for
anything."
Soleimani's replacement in heading the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (ICRG)
elite Quds Force unit is Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani, and experts contend he
has so far shown little of the same clout that his predecessor did.
"Esmail Qaani's portfolio was heavily centered on Quds Force operations in
Afghanistan and Pakistan," noted Steckler. "His relationships with Syrian,
Lebanese, and Iraqi political and militia leaders aren't as strong as
Soleimani's were, and we have seen Hezbollah step in to fill that void in the
interim as Qaani gains his footing."
The source also stressed that the killing of Iraq's Shiite militia leader Abu,
who was alongside Soleimani as they endeavored to depart the Baghdad airport on
that fateful Friday night, has had an equally as resounding impact.
"His death was devastating for Iranian interests, he was the head of the snake,
and those under him now really don't know what to do," noted the insider. "All
the command he built up has gone."
Several other Iraq officials Fox News spoke to concurred that the effect has
been significant.
"The period after the killings has meant a huge split inside the PMF," one
Kurdish official said. "They still cannot decide on who to replace Abu Mahdi,
Soleimani was the decider for everyone, and he had the final say."
IRAN PICKS CYBER FIGHT WITH ISRAEL AS BOTH SIDES TARGET CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
However, the low-level offensive assaults against U.S. interests by the
Iranian-backed militias in Iraq remain ongoing, coupled with Tehran's
overarching use of its naval vessels in the Persian Gulf – including live-action
training exercises earlier this week – have some policymakers calling for the
U.S. to implement an even tighter "maximum pressure" campaign.
Furthermore, it circumvented the Trump administration's hardline Venezuelan
policy against the regime of Nicolas Maduro this week by sending five tankers of
gasoline to the increasingly isolated Latin American country.
On Wednesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that all sanctions
waivers issued to countries to work with Iran on nuclear projects would be
coming to an end within 60 days.
Despite the acrimonious rhetoric between Washington and Tehran, so far, it has
amounted to little more than tit-for-tat and a far cry from the doomsday
predictions that percolated at the beginning of the year.
"Even under coronavirus crisis conditions, Iran is signaling that it will not be
deterred," Taleblu said. "Low-level escalation is set to continue."Others
caution that once other distractions such as the coronavirus crisis subside,
hostilities could rise again.
"The killing of Soleimani and other 'maximum pressure' tactics have resulted in
a more hostile, provocative Iran, not a moderate one. Even though a full-scale
war hasn't happened yet, concerns were justified," said Defense Priorities
Policy Director, Ben Friedman. The killing sparked direct U.S.-Iran conflict,
including a missile attack on an Iraqi base housing U.S. forces. It was mostly
just luck that the attack didn't kill any U.S. soldiers, providing President
Trump an off-ramp to back down from further escalation."
But over the next few months, analysts highlighted, there is likely to be a
lull. A prominent forthcoming date is Oct. 18, 2020, when the United Nations
arms embargo 2231 will expire, freeing Iran to take delivery of state-of-the-art
combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, and tanks from Russia and China,
who are eager to tap into the Iranian defense market. "While Iran has already
violated the arms embargo with seeming impunity, ferrying weaponry to its
proxies in combat zones around the region, the resolution has kept the most
advanced weaponry out of Iranian hands," added Steckler. "If the resolution
lifts, Iran will be able to rebuild its own aging military fleet, and it would
strip the U.S. and Israel of justification under international law for its
efforts to curtail Iranian arms transfers through interdictions and airstrikes."
*Hollie McKay has a been a Fox News Digital staff reporter since 2007. She has
extensively reported from war zones including Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Burma, and Latin America investigates global conflicts, war crimes and
terrorism around the world. Follow her on Twitter.
Is America Kadhimi’s Friend?
Robert Fordi/Asharq Al Awsat/May 29/2020
After the deaths of over 100,000 Americans from the coronavirus, only a few
Americans pay attention to Iraq outside the capital Washington. Inside
Washington, officials and analysts are thinking about the important bilateral
meeting in Baghdad in June with the new Prime Minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi.
Officials and analysts are watching Kadhimi’s every move. When he visited the
Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) headquarters and put on a PMF jacket, opinions
exploded on social media. That jacket was worth ten thousand words.
There are two camps in Washington about policy towards Iraq. The first camp
includes Michael Knights from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and
Anthony Pfaff from the Atlantic Council who recommend patience and helping
Kadhimi become independent of Iran.
Knights earlier this month praised Kadhimi’s reforms to the Iraqi security
forces, for example the reappointment of Lieutenant General Abdul Wahab al-Saidi
to the Counter-Terrorism Service.
This camp urges that Washington give Kadhimi time to reform the Iraqi security
forces and continue the bilateral military relationship with Iraqi security
forces.
Pfaff said the Americans should utilize their advantage in the fields of
economics and finance to help Iraq’s economy and to encourage investment in Iraq
from the West and the Gulf. Iran cannot compete in these fields.
In the second camp in Washington are conservative Republicans such as former
Vice President Cheney’s aide John Hannah and Hudson Institute analyst Michael
Pregent who urge the Trump administration to present Kadhimi a hard choice.
The Iraqi Prime Minister must immediately confront and break the PMF and also
reduce economic relations with Iran or Washington will answer with more pressure
on Iraq immediately.
This circle of analysts warns that if Baghdad does not end the influence of the
PMF and Iran, it will be impossible to maintain political support in Congress
for military and economic assistance to Baghdad, especially after the huge costs
of the coronavirus.
Hannah in Foreign Policy magazine earlier this month even recommended that
Washington impose sanctions on Iraqi political leaders, and Pregent suggested
sanctions against Hadi al-Ameri from the Badr Corps and against the Fateh bloc
which is the second largest political bloc in the Iraqi parliament.
These analysts think that if the situation in Baghdad becomes too difficult, the
5,000 American military forces in Iraq could all redeploy to bases in the Iraqi
Kurdish Region. From those bases they could undertake operations in all of Iraq
and Syria against any enemy. According to their analysis, it is not America’s
problem if the Kadhimi government collapses in Baghdad.
Many American analysts never seem to learn a lesson that former Secretary of
Defense Robert McNamara highlighted in his memoires from 1995 about the American
failure in the Vietnam War.
McNamara recalled the many political and military problems that resulted from
the coup that killed South Vietnam President Diem in 1963. President Kennedy and
his administration supported the coup but they didn’t know what new government
would follow Diem. They didn’t have a plan. They only knew that they didn’t like
Diem and they wanted a change. We saw a similar mentality in the Bush
administration in 2003 when it brought down the Saddam Hussein regime.
Will the Americans bring down Kadhimi because of his relations with Iran? Among
the big economic challenges in Iraq is inadequate electricity production. Iraq
must import Iranian energy to provide additional electricity in Iraq, especially
the sensitive southern regions.
Former Iraqi Electricity Minister Louay Khatib in April stated that Iraq needs
several years to build the infrastructure to be self-sufficient in electricity
production.
The Americans gave Kadhimi a four-month period to continue imports of Iranian
energy, but they warn that their patience is diminishing. If Washington cannot
wait several years and instead imposes economic sanctions, the Kadhimi
government risks not paying salaries and would witness big new street protests.
If Kadhimi’s government collapses how do Washington and its allies know that the
next Iraqi government will be better for regional stability and the fight
against ISIS?
If the answer is that bases in Iraqi Kurdistan will be enough, has Washington
noticed that the Kurdish Region Government is bankrupt and has serious political
problems?
I can understand an argument that says after 100,000 coronavirus deaths in the
United States, America’s biggest security threats are no longer in the Middle
East, and therefore Washington should reduce its presence and expenses in the
region. I do not understand the argument from Washington analysts that insists
that terrorism from the Middle East is still a big threat to the United States
but possible chaos in Baghdad would be acceptable in order to increase pressure
against Iran.
Washington needs an answer before June.
The Old and New Persian Empires
Eliora Katz/Newsweek/May 29/2020
Iraq is invaded and its despot is deposed. Iran encroaches, amassing territory
covering Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Israel. The year is 539 BCE, though it eerily
echoes events following the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. Persia’s supreme
leader in question is Cyrus the Great, not Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iraq’s tyrant
is Nabonidus. Today, with Bashar al-Assad’s victory in Syria, Hezbollah’s hold
over Lebanon, the success of the Houthis in Yemen, the entrenchment of
Iran-aligned forces in Iraq and the command of Iran-backed Hamas and Palestinian
Islamic Jihad in Gaza, the Islamic Republic has established a land bridge
stretching from Tehran to the Mediterranean, which many see as the “restoration
of the Persian Empire.”
Contemporary Iranian government officials too, from Foreign Minister Javad Zarif
to former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—evoke Persia of old in order to condone
their theocracy. In reality, the Islamic Republic’s imperialism is an inversion
of the Achaemenid Empire, advancing a raison d’etre at odds with Cyrus’
creation.
While Persia of old was founded on enlightened statesmanship for its time,
advancing plurality of thought and creed, the modern Persian empire was born out
of an Islamic revolution intent on ideological expansion through sowing
instability via insurgent terror groups across the region.
“The establishment of the largest empire in antiquity, one of the most
benevolent of any in world history, if any empire is good, is associated with
the Persians,” historian Touraj Daryaee explains. Though the precise veracity of
the Cyrus story can be disputed, to understand Iranian national identity, the
reception and transmission of his legacy in the nation’s psyche is more
instructive than its historicity. That the nation’s founding father chose to
present himself as an enlightened imperialist, in contrast to monarchs of his
epoch who boasted of bondage and carnage, is telling.
When Babylon fell to the Persians, Cyrus proclaimed his policy of respecting
local customs on what has come to be known as the Cyrus Cylinder. Cyrus freed
foreign captives and restored temples of their respective gods, as opposed to
the god of the victor. In doing so, he fashioned the first polity based on
tolerance. For the following two hundred years of the Achaemenid empire,
successive rulers upheld their founder’s laissez-faire approach, creating the
period called “Pax Persica,” or Persian Peace.
Among these captives were the Jewish people. Mr. Zarif noted last year, citing
“the Torah,” that a “Persian king saved Jews from captivity in Babylon” who, in
the Hebrew Bible, “is only foreigner referred to as MESSIAH.” Tehran’s top
diplomat neglected to mention, however, that Cyrus is referred to as God’s
anointed, or messiah, because as the Book of Ezra recalls, Cyrus is chosen to
deliver the Jews and “build Him [God] a House in Jerusalem, which is in Judea.”
In addition to the Bible, other sources, such as first-century historian Flavius
Josephus, detail the political and monetary support Cyrus provided to repatriate
Jews in the land of Israel. Evoking this history, President Harry Truman
declared “I am Cyrus,” due to his role in helping create the modern Jewish state
of Israel. Similarly, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu compared President Trump
to Cyrus for moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem.
By contrast, since 1979, the Islamic Republic has been dedicated to the
destruction of Israel and Holocaust denial. In light of “Quds Day,” Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei endorsed the Holocaust this month, publishing a
poster calling for a “Final Solution” for Israeli Jews. Iran’s proxy expansion
engulfing Israel serves exactly this purpose, as laid out in Khamenei’s 2011
book, Palestine. In this work, he describes eliminating the Jewish state, not by
means of traditional warfare, but through a prolonged proxy war of attrition
aimed at breaking the Israeli will to survive.
Just the other week, an assailant in Hamadan attempted to set fire to the tomb
of the biblical queen Esther—wife of Xerxes, Cyrus’ grandson—and her cousin
Mordechai. The Islamic Republic has neither condemned the arson attack nor
brought the perpetrator, allegedly caught on tape, to justice. The arsonist is
likely connected to the regime. In February, the local Basij militia threatened
to destroy the tomb and to replace it with a Palestinian consulate. Ironically,
the shrine was renovated and expanded in 1971, as part of the shah’s national
commemoration marking 2,500 years of the Persian Empire.
Further highlighting incongruity with Persian pluralism is the fact that Iran’s
land corridor is known as the “Shiite Crescent.” To engineer contiguous
allegiance, Iran and its proxies are converting or ousting Sunnis in war-torn
Syria, while expelling Christians from their homes in Iraq. Iran’s regional
influence correlates with those areas where it has been able to exploit the
sectarianism necessary to form militias loyal to the theocracy, which then helps
Iran position itself as the leader of the global Shiite community.
Within Iran’s official boarders, minorities including Baha’is, Christians, Jews,
Kurds, Dervishes and Zoroastrians face severe discrimination rooted in a legal
system privileging Shiites.
It is no wonder that in celebrating Cyrus, Iranians undermine the clerical
regime. In the early 2000s, Iranians created “Cyrus the Great Day” to
commemorate Iranian nationalism and their pre-Islamic history. Threatened by
Cyrus’ legacy, the Islamic Republic bans celebrating at Cyrus’ tomb and arrests
visitors. Defying the Islamic Republic, Iranians nonetheless flock to the
ancient leader’s burial place and chant, “Iran is our homeland; Cyrus is our
father,” and “Clerical rule is synonymous with only tyranny, only war.”
Xenophon, the prominent student of Socrates, wondered how human beings can rule
sans revolution. The answer, he thought, could be discerned from Cyrus, whom
Xenophon considered the paragon of statesmanship, ruling magnanimously over the
whole known world. In Cyropedia (“Education of Cyrus”), Xenophon uses the
Persian leader’s life to illuminate the making of the most virtuous ruler. This
treatise, the first mirror of princes, was read extensively in the modern period
and the Enlightenment, heavily influencing Machiavelli’s The Prince—which itself
helped lay the intellectual foundation for modern liberalism. Cyropedia was, for
Machiavelli, the most important work of classical political thought.
The ancient Iranian state also captivated America’s founding fathers. Thomas
Jefferson possessed two copies of Cyropedia in his library, which he carefully
annotated and encouraged his family to read. As a result, the model of
governance Cyrus pioneered based on religious freedom was, in modern times first
implemented by what the regime refers to as the “Great Satan.”
How ironic.
*Eliora Katz is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Follow her on Twitter @eliorakatz.
The Syrian Constitutional Committee Is Not About the
Constitution
Charles Thépaut/The Washington Institute.
The UN committee’s chances of success are limited but still worth pursuing to a
prompt conclusion, in part to prevent Russia from draping its window dressing
over an illegitimate process.
Last week, UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen announced that the Syrian
constitutional committee launched in September 2019 can hold its next meeting as
soon as the coronavirus pandemic allows. This narrow mechanism was not designed
to resolve the years-long conflict via legal solutions, but rather to start a
political discussion among Syrians. Yet despite the committee’s limitations, the
United States and its allies should invest more effort in it—otherwise, Russia
will be free to exploit the constitutional process as a way of normalizing the
Assad regime without addressing any of the war’s root causes.
THE CONSTITUTION AS A TOOL TO ENGAGE RUSSIA
For years, UN envoys have tried to bring Syrian parties to a political
settlement but found themselves paralyzed by Moscow, which has steadfastly
protected the regime from the consequence of refusing to negotiate with the
opposition. The United States, regional actors, and Europe declined to challenge
this protection by escalating militarily with Russia once it intervened on the
ground, instead limiting their pressure to economic sanctions and diplomatic
engagement.
Hence, constitutional reform gained traction because it was one of the few
topics in which Russian diplomats evinced interest. Working toward a new
constitution was at the center of U.S.-Russian discussions in March 2015. Two
months later, Moscow presented a first draft that was roundly rejected by all
Syrian opposition elements; a second draft in January 2017 met with a similar
response. Nevertheless, in May 2017, Russian officials proposed a “national
reconciliation conference” in Sochi, then helped the regime hand-pick the Syrian
factions that would be invited to discuss a new constitution there. By year’s
end, constitutional reform featured as one of the core components of the Da Nang
memorandum jointly issued by President Vladimir Putin and President Trump.
Then as now, Moscow seemed to view constitutional reform as a flexible framework
for launching an international diplomatic process and muting Western critics
while preserving its policy approach and limiting the scope of what “change” in
Syria might ultimately encompass. Although UN Security Council Resolution 2254
called for a political process consisting of three essential elements—a
transitional government, free and fair elections, and a new constitution—Russia
has gradually diluted the discussion to the latter element alone.
THE CONSTITUTION AS A “CONSTRUCTIVE AMBIGUITY”
In urging Syrians to take up issues such as constitutional principles, state
reform, and power-sharing arrangements, international actors are well aware that
there are different understandings of these matters in Washington, Moscow,
Ankara, Berlin, and Paris. Yet foreign officials have deemed it useful to
maintain this ambiguity for the time being as a waystation on the road to more
detailed discussions.
Thus, when Russia, Turkey, and Iran proposed a constitutional committee during
the January 2018 Sochi conference, the idea was later accepted by the “small
group” (i.e., Britain, Egypt, France, Germany, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the
United States) on condition that it remains under full UN auspices. The group
was amenable to this process in large part because the Assad regime accepted it
as well, making it the only instance of Damascus engaging in a negotiation on
anything since 2011.
The proposal also gave the regime and its backers time to reconquer territories
across Syria (the same dynamic seen today in Idlib) while deflecting pressure
ahead of the country’s 2021 presidential election. For their part, Europe,
Turkey, the UN, and the United States saw the committee as a “door opener,”
allowing them to put the Syrian opposition back on track and build confidence
without discussing the individual fate of Bashar al-Assad.
OPAQUE SETUP AND UNCLEAR GOALS
Although the constitutional committee was based on a tacit understanding that it
would refresh the Syrian political process framed by Resolution 2254, Assad,
Iran, Russia, and Turkey took eighteen months to agree on its composition. An
opaque compromise was reached around three categories of representatives: fifty
from the regime, fifty from the opposition, and fifty from Syrian civil society,
the latter ostensibly nominated by the UN but in practice largely imposed by
Moscow and Ankara.
Another major problem was the exclusion of northeast Syria, which stemmed from
the open conflict between Turkey and the People’s Defense Units (YPG), the
Kurdish militia that dominates the area. Ankara barred any members of the YPG-led
Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria from participating in the
committee—a missed opportunity to deescalate tensions between the two sides and
clarify the YPG’s goals regarding decentralization versus separatism.
Also unclear is the committee’s overarching goal: does it aim to produce a new
constitution or just amend the current one? And what mode will it use to ratify
the new charter: a public referendum or a parliamentary vote? If the latter,
will a new parliament be chosen before that vote?
REGIME OBSTRUCTION CONTINUES, AND MOSCOW PLAYS ALONG
Although constructive ambiguity can sometimes facilitate progress on the less
sensitive elements of a political process, the parties eventually have to tackle
the conflict’s core elements, however intractable they may seem. Yet by November
2019, after two meetings of the constitutional committee, the regime once again
blocked discussion of the core issues and centered the discussion on fighting
“terrorism.” Far from being a constitutional matter, this issue has more often
been the regime’s tool for conflating Syria’s political opposition and armed
jihadist groups. Damascus also refused to discuss any issue related to army
oversight, deeming this a “redline”—even though civilian authority over military
forces is a core constitutional issue in countries all over the world. Recently,
the UN special envoy suggested that a new arrangement had been found to restart
substantive talks, but the pandemic has prevented the parties from scheduling a
new meeting.
The regime’s goal is clear: to delay the committee long enough for Assad to hold
(and win) the 2021 presidential election under the current constitution. It
remains unclear how much Russia is willing to use carrots and sticks to convince
Damascus that it should engage in legitimate talks. This is exactly the
situation that has blocked UN negotiations in Geneva for years—with Moscow’s
blessing, Damascus tries to slowly strangle the process while Assad reigns over
a country in ruins, temporarily allowing that some parts of it will stay under
Turkish influence.
INVESTING IN THE COMMITTEE—OR ENDING IT IF NECESSARY
There is no magical solution to the current stalemate, especially if Washington
decides to continue the military withdrawal it began amid Turkey’s October 2019
incursion in the northeast. Not engaging more assertively on the constitutional
committee and other political issues would further weaken the U.S. and allied
position. Meanwhile, the regime and Russia are using every opportunity to
increase their leverage over the international community, as the Security
Council’s January negotiations over cross-border humanitarian access amply
demonstrated.
It is therefore urgent that Washington and its allies take decisive action on
the constitutional committee—first to support it and give it a real chance to
succeed, and then to terminate it if it does not deliver within the next couple
months. This includes linking additional sanctions to each instance of regime
obstruction, and offering technical and financial support to committee
representatives from the opposition and civil society. Some form of wider
consultation with the diaspora is also necessary to compensate for the lack of
transparency in the committee appointment process—in particular, Europe, Turkey,
and the United States should provide platforms for Syrians outside Syria to
express their views on constitutional reform.
These steps would place the ball firmly in Russia’s court, compelling it to push
the regime on contributing to a serious constitutional draft. And if the
committee does not finalize its work well before the 2021 election season, U.S.
and European officials should be ready to call for its termination.
BEYOND THE CONSTITUTION
Of course, even a new, legitimately brokered constitution would represent only
the first step in a long process—on its own, the charter will neither end the
people’s agony nor enable hundreds of thousands of refugees to return home. The
UN should therefore prepare the steps that could potentially follow a successful
constitutional committee, such as designing a robust monitoring mechanism for
the presidential election and preparing safe, neutral voting options for the
diaspora.
Hopes are not high for a transparent constitutional and electoral process in
Syria. Nevertheless, a carefully tailored effort from the United States and
Europe would increase this possibility—or at least prevent Russia from draping
its window dressing over an illegitimate process.
*Charles Thepaut is a resident visiting fellow at The Washington Institute.
Russia's Arctic Empire
Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/May 29/2020
These Russian claims have not yet been adjudicated by international law courts,
the United Nations, or by any bilateral or multilateral treaty.
Russia's blanket claims of territorial sovereignty pose a direct challenge to
"Law of the Sea" conventions such as the "Freedom of Navigation" (FON)
principle, championed by the U.S. and other Free World navies.
The aspirations of the five polar nations -- Russia, Denmark, Norway, Canada and
the U.S. -- may also have to contend with the ambitions of the People's Republic
of China.
Perhaps a prudent path for the U.S. and Free World countries to adopt in the
Arctic, given Moscow's comprehensive advance and the China-Russia tandem, would
be to maintain its nuclear submarine superiority while closely monitoring
Russia's own Northern Fleet based in the Arctic base of Murmansk. NATO
successfully carried out this mission during the Cold War.
Moscow sent a spectacular message last month to the world's other Arctic powers:
Russia is determined to dominate the region. Pictured: Russia's nuclear-powered
icebreaker Arktika in Saint Petersburg on December 14, 2019.
Moscow sent a spectacular message last month to the world's other Arctic powers:
Russia is determined to dominate the region. Russian transport aircraft,
breaking the record for the highest altitude jump ever, parachuted a group of
their Spetsnaz (Special Forces) over the Arctic. from a height of almost 33,000
feet (Mt. Everest is 29,000 feet). Russian paratroops then executed a military
exercise operation before reassembling at the Nagurskoye base, the northernmost
military facility in Russia. Any rival's attempt to catch up and surpass
Moscow's head start in the Arctic is unlikely to succeed. Russia has a
geopolitical advantage in that its sovereign land abuts over half of the
Arctic's territorial waters. Historically, Russia's czars and commissars were
frustrated in their attempts to secure warm-water ports, which would have
benefited commerce and military force projection. Now, with environmental
warming and subsequent accelerating ice-melt in the Arctic Ocean, Moscow appears
poised to control the newest maritime corridor, "the Northeast Passage." This
waterway will unite Russian Europe with Russia's Far East provinces adjacent to
Pacific waters. The "Northeast Passage" could shorten the transshipment of goods
from Asian countries to Europe by two weeks, rather than shipping goods through
the Suez Canal route.
For centuries, ships could navigate only sections of the Arctic a few months of
the year. If present climatic warming trends continue, however, and probably
even if they do not, Russia seems to be expecting exclusively to exploit the
region's vast energy, mineral and fishing resources, at least within the legal
limits of its 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone beyond its land borders.
Russia's northwestern Arctic territory of the Kola Peninsula accounts for large
portions of the country's nickel and copper output, as does Norilsk in East
Siberia. The Arctic region also accounts for most of Russia's tin extraction.
Russian mining centers within the Arctic Circle produce valuable minerals, such
as diamonds in the Yakutia Republic in Russia's Far East, as well as palladium,
platinum, selenium and cobalt. Probably the most famous minerals are the area's
legendary gold deposits in the Kolyma area.
Russia's claim of exclusivity, or at least its special ties, to the Arctic are
of long-standing. Moscow first claimed sovereignty over all the islands in the
Arctic Sea north of its Eurasian land mass as early as 1926, and repeated this
claim in 1928 and again in 1950. Russia's claim of sovereign control of these
islands, along with its nearly 25,000 kilometers of Arctic coastline, is
considered part of the country's historical patrimony and, therefore, its
ownership supposedly non-negotiable.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin seemed to be underscoring that axiom in his
2017 visit to the Franz Josef Land archipelago, the northernmost outpost in a
region, where Russia's claim of sovereignty includes 463,000 square miles of
territory. All the same, these Russian claims have not yet been adjudicated by
international law courts, the United Nations, or by any bilateral or
multilateral treaty. Russia's assertiveness, and the failure of the other Arctic
nations to corral Moscow into negotiating definitive boundary treaties, leave
significant potential for misunderstanding and serious international incidents
in the Arctic seas. Russia's blanket claims of territorial sovereignty pose a
direct challenge to "Law of the Sea" conventions such as the "Freedom of
Navigation" (FON) principle, championed by the U.S. and other Free World navies.
The FON concept permits foreign vessels freely to ply waters outside the
internationally recognized 12 nautical mile limit of sovereign national waters.
One longstanding territorial dispute fraught with tension is seen in the
conflicting claims by Russia and NATO members Denmark and Canada over ownership
of the Lomonosov Ridge. Nevertheless, some historical territorial counterclaims
are negotiable, like the decades-old dispute between Russia and Norway over
which country controlled the waters of the Barents Sea. Russia and Norway
resolved the issue amicably in September 2010 with each country settling for
175,000 square km of the Barents waters.
The Kremlin continues integrating its industrial and military infrastructure in
its Far North project, begun over a century ago. Pointedly, between 2015 and
2016, Moscow constructed six new military bases, at Aleksandra Land, Novaya
Zemlya, Sredny Island, Wrangel Island, Kotelny Island, and Camp Schmidt. Russia
maintains strict vigilance of the skies over its Arctic realm, and stations
medium-range surface-to-air missile systems to assure control of its airspace.
Russia's military has also deployed a polar-capable version of its latest air
defense weapon, the S-400. Lessons learned from the Red Army's World War II
winter combat against Germany's invading forces guarantees that all Russian
military weapons systems are operable at -50 degrees Celsius.
Russia, in addition, has a natural geopolitical and cultural advantage over
rivals for hegemony in the land and waters in the Arctic Circle. Russian
citizens seem more acclimated to the frigid climate of the far northern regions,
as evidenced by Russia's several large urban population centers in the far north
such as: Murmansk, Vorkuta, Norilsk, and Tiksi.
Underscoring Russia's apparent determination to dominate the Northern Sea Route
(NSR) once the passage is completely navigable, Moscow has already proffered a
jurisdictional regime to manage all commerce. Russia's proposed NSR
administration entails a mandatory 45-day advance application for right of
passage, a hefty fee for passage, and the boarding of every vessel by a native
Russian pilot to guide the ship into port. The U.S. will not likely comply with
this proposal, as the U.S. Navy firmly adheres to the principle of mare liberum
("freedom of the seas"). In recent decades, the U.S. Navy has conducted hundreds
of "Freedom of Navigation" military exercises around the world, and now may have
to intensify such missions in the high north to prevent Moscow's unchallenged
dominance of the Arctic region.
The aspirations of the five polar nations -- Russia, Denmark, Norway, Canada and
the U.S. -- may also have to contend with the ambitions of the People's Republic
of China. In the recent past, China and Russia have cooperated in navigation and
commercial operation in the Arctic. Russia, owner of the world's largest fleet
of icebreakers, has on occasion deployed these vessels to escort Chinese
maritime convoys in the far North's frigid seas. It was Russia that also
pioneered the building of the first nuclear-powered icebreaker, The Lenin, when
passage in the Russian far north was restricted to the period from mid-July
through the end of September. China is now busy producing its own icebreakers to
ply Arctic waters. China evidently sees the Northern Corridor as a "Polar Silk
Road" that will facilitate two-way commerce from Asia to the European Union. Now
that the Northern Sea Route fully materialized last August, Russo-Chinese
cooperation might also include China's financing of cash-strapped Russia's
formidable development plans for military bases and modern ports. China's
insatiable appetite for coal has likely caused Beijing to cast an avaricious eye
toward the Russian Arctic's vast coal deposits in the Siberian region of
Kemerovo, not far from the Sino-Russian border.
Perhaps a prudent path for the U.S. and Free World countries to adopt in the
Arctic, given Moscow's comprehensive advance and the China-Russia tandem, would
be to maintain its nuclear submarine superiority while closely monitoring
Russia's own Northern Fleet, which is based in the Arctic port city of Murmansk.
NATO successfully carried out this mission during the Cold War.
The U.S. and Russia remain quite capable of executing their most critical Arctic
mission: over-the-pole attacks. While bilateral fail-safe procedures are in
place to lessen the risk of such a catastrophe, unresolved differences in the
Arctic region raise the prospect for miscalculation.
One such difference is Moscow's periodic claims that several of the seas
adjacent to its land borders are "internal seas" or "historical sovereign
waters," barring foreign maritime traffic. Occasionally, Kremlin spokespersons
have designated that the Sea of Ohkotsk off the far eastern Russian coast is an
"internal sea" and, as such, is Russian sovereign territory. That claim remains
unresolved and vigorously disputed by both the U.S. and Japan. This is but one
potential Arctic flashpoint of many likely to arise.
*Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense
Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in
the Air Force Reserve.
Kim Jong Un Returns to Preside Over Central Military
Commission
David Maxwell/Mathew Ha/FDD/May 29/2020
Kim Jong Un made his first public appearance in three weeks to oversee a May 25
meeting of North Korea’s Central Military Commission (CMC). The key takeaway:
Pyongyang remains fully committed to developing nuclear weapons.
North Korean state media reported that the meeting addressed “new policies for
further increasing the nuclear war deterrence of the country.” The Kim regime’s
public recommitment to nuclear weapons development serves as both internal and
external messaging. Externally, as nuclear negotiations remain deadlocked
following the February 2019 Hanoi summit, Kim is signaling to the United States
and its allies that Pyongyang has no intention of denuclearizing. Internally,
Kim is emphasizing the importance of Pyongyang’s nuclear deterrent to assuage
anger among North Korea’s elite, military, and people at the economic hardships
they continue to endure for the sake of developing nuclear weapons.
At the Hanoi summit, Kim failed to extort any degree of U.S. sanctions relief to
placate his populace. After Washington’s refusal to lift sanctions absent
denuclearization, Kim likely hoped doubling down on ideological rhetoric
concerning Pyongyang’s nuclear program would help counter increasing popular or
elite pressure to alleviate their economic challenges.
Kim may also wield this CMC meeting to reinforce his own commitment to the “Songun,”
or military-first, policy. While Songun was primarily associated with his
father, Kim Jong Il, the younger Kim never eliminated or replaced it. Rather, he
expanded it with his distinct “Byungjin” policy, which called for simultaneous
nuclear and economic development. At the CMC meeting, Kim promoted 69 officials
involved in the regime’s nuclear and missile programs to senior military posts.
The reaffirmation of his commitment to North Korea’s nuclear deterrent conveys
that he prioritizes the military’s goals.
Robert O’Brien, the U.S. national security advisor, responded to the CMC meeting
with a reminder that North Korea stands to gain economically by relinquishing
its nuclear weapons program. Although the Trump administration’s unconventional,
top-down diplomacy and the Moon administration’s “peace first” strategy have yet
to make substantial progress toward verifiable denuclearization, this failure
lies entirely with Kim. He is the one who has rejected substantive working-level
negotiations despite earnest efforts from both Washington and Seoul.
The Korean peninsula remains at risk of a catastrophic conflict. The United
States and South Korea have deterred conflict on the peninsula for several
decades through an iron-clad alliance that ensured military and economic
superiority over North Korea. Yet as North Korea continues to move closer to
completing its nuclear arsenal, that deterrence is not guaranteed. Admiral
Charles Richard, the commander of U.S. Strategic Command, warned of a “decisive
response” by the United States in such a situation. To avoid such a scenario,
South Korea and the United States must maintain a strong alliance that includes
extended deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over South Korea and Japan.
Looking ahead, Kim will likely continue to reject Washington’s offer. He
believes that denuclearizing would leave his regime militarily vulnerable to
ROK-U.S. forces. Moreover, pursuing a brighter economic future might entail
opening up to foreign media and influence, thereby threatening the regime’s
control. Thus, Kim likely will continue his “long con” application of political
warfare, whereby Pyongyang seeks to coerce and entice Washington, South Korea,
and other U.S. allies into making economic concessions while North Korea inches
closer to de facto recognition as a nuclear power.
Washington’s best chance to achieve denuclearization is to persuade Kim and,
more important, North Korea’s elite that retaining nuclear weapons will bring
more harm than good and ultimately threaten the regime. Kim historically has
responded to internal pressures. Washington and its allies should therefore
employ a coordinated political warfare strategy that incorporates all elements
of national power – diplomatic, military, economic, and informational – while
simultaneously strengthening the alliance structure in the region. Such a
concerted and multifaceted effort is essential to change Kim’s strategic
perspective.
*David Maxwell, a 30-year veteran of the U.S. Army and a retired Special Forces
colonel, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD),
where Mathew Ha is a research analyst. Both contribute to FDD’s Center on
Military and Political Power (CMPP). For more analysis from David, Mathew, and
CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow David and Mathew on Twitter @davidmaxwell161
and @matjunsuk. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington,
DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and
foreign policy.
COVID-19 and the U.S. Air Force
Andrea Stricker/Major Liane/Trixie” Zivitski/FDD/May 29/2020
COVID-19 is testing every aspect of U.S. national defense readiness and mission
execution. The Air Force is preparing for what the chief of staff, General David
Goldfein, termed a “reset,” requiring the service to increase its ability to
operate amid COVID-19 or in any other biologically contaminated environment.
Situation Overview
As of May 26, the Air Force had recorded a total of 813 COVID-19 cases,
including 483 among uniformed airmen and 330 among civilians and contractors.
Two contractors and one civilian have died. The Air Force recognizes that
biological threats may be the new normal, whether they occur naturally,
accidentally, or by way of attack. In response, the Air Force is attempting to
update its strategy, regulations, and policies accordingly.
To ensure continuity of its most critical missions, Air Force installations
around the world have implemented measures to protect personnel and minimize
risk of infection. In March, the Pentagon enacted a 60-day stop-movement order,
halting military travel and movement abroad to limit the spread of the
coronavirus through the ranks.
Other measures range from modified shift schedules to shelter-in-place orders.
In some cases, that has meant isolating key personnel on bases away from their
families. The North American Aerospace Defense Command’s 24/7 command center at
Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado, for example, rotates personnel on 12-hour
shifts, after which personnel return to “access-controlled cantonments,”
isolated from each other to prevent potential infection.
Refreshed realization of biological threats also required instituting novel
operating procedures to continue conducting exercises. In early April, for
example, the United States and Israel completed a combined F-35 exercise known
as Enduring Lightning. The two sides then conducted socially distanced
post-exercise debriefs through secure communications technology.
General Goldfein acknowledged the success of various interim procedures
implemented thus far, but called upon commanders to create and implement
additional procedures that are sustainable for at least a year.
More broadly, in a recent message to commanders, General Goldfein called the
current pandemic a “defining moment.” He noted, “[F]or our grandparents it was
Pearl Harbor… For most of us, it was 9/11. For today’s airmen, it is COVID-19.
The common characteristic of each defining moment is the world never returned to
where it was before the event.”
COVID-19 in the USAF
Cumulative Cases Cumulative Deaths
Military 483 0
Civilian 217 1
Contractor 113 2
Total 813 3
Source: Air Force Magazine
Data current as of May 26.
COVID-19 in DoD
Cumulative Cases Cumulative Deaths
Military 6,221 3
Civilian 1,458 19
Contractor 602 9
Total 8,281 31
Source: DoD Covid-19 Update, Media Fact Sheet, May 28, 2020
Data current as of May 28.
Implications
As countries around the globe begin to ease restrictions, U.S. military
personnel at home and abroad must be prepared for a predicted second spike in
infections of COVID-19.
In general, the Air Force and other services are adopting modified procedures
informed by previously established Ability to Survive and Operate and CBRNE
(chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives) strategies and
policies. Military personnel are trained to respond and operate in contaminated
environments. However, rather than preparing for naturally occurring or
accidentally released pathogens, current joint and service-level policies focus
on employable strategies for an adversary’s use of CBRNE weapons.
What to Watch for
Any actual or perceived reduction in military readiness may tempt adversaries to
undertake aggressive or destabilizing actions. Deterring such behavior will
require the Air Force, and DoD more broadly, to rethink how it defines
biological threats and to refine training and contingency plans accordingly.
Doing so will ensure that the Air Force is best prepared for future outbreaks –
regardless of their source.
*Andrea Stricker is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD), where Maj. Liane Zivitski is a visiting military analyst.
Both also contribute to FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). For
more analysis from Andrea, Liane, and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Andrea
on Twitter @StrickerNonpro. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a
Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national
security and foreign policy. Views expressed or implied in this commentary are
solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the
Air University, the U.S. Air Force, the Defense Department, or any other U.S.
government agency.
Understanding China’s Latest Move Against Hong Kong
Thomas Joscelyn/FDD/May 29/2020
The CCP is using the threat of a foreign bogeyman to encroach on residents'
freedoms.
Not even the coronavirus pandemic could convince the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
to set aside its territorial ambitions. As the virus spread around the globe
earlier this year, the CCP continued to assert its sovereignty over much of the
East and South China seas, harassing Japanese ships and sinking a Vietnamese
fishing boat. There are growing indications in recent days that renewed border
clashes between China and India, a longstanding issue between the two countries,
are serious. President Trump took to Twitter earlier today to say the U.S. is
willing to “mediate or arbitrate their now raging border dispute”—an offer the
countries will surely spurn. And then there is Hong Kong—a unique,
semi-autonomous metropolitan area that has been part of China since the British
handover in 1997.
Earlier this month, the Chinese government announced that a new national
security law for Hong Kong would be introduced at the Third Session of the 13th
National People’s Congress (NPC), a body that rubber stamps the CCP’s agenda.
The government didn’t release a draft copy of the legislation, so it isn’t clear
what is exactly in it. But BBC News and other sources report that the law is
intended to give Beijing sweeping powers in the name of combating secession,
subversion, terrorism, and foreign interference in Hong Kong.
Pro-democracy activists see it as a move by the CCP to further undermine Hong
Kong’s historical autonomy. And the fate of Hong Kong has become part of the war
of words between Beijing and Washington. On Tuesday, China’s Foreign Ministry
spokesperson, Zhao Lijian, warned that the Trump administration should stand
aside or face unspecified consequences. “The U.S. has no right to wantonly
comment or interfere,” Zhao said. “If the U.S. is bent on harming China’s
interests, China will have to take all necessary measures to fight back.”
Zhao is one of China’s so-called “Wolf Warriors,” an aggressive breed of
diplomat dedicated to defending the CCP. He has been particularly outspoken
during the coronavirus pandemic, making outlandish allegations, such as that the
U.S. military may have first brought COVID-19 to Wuhan. But his warning to the
U.S. is straight from the CCP’s playbook. The party seeks to blame “external”
influences for the political crisis in Hong Kong, even though it is almost
entirely an internal affair. Hong Kongers have long resisted the CCP’s
encroachments on their freedom, rallying against a similar anti-sedition law in
2003. That same underlying dynamic is in play here, despite the CCP’s attempt to
deflect blame.
The Trump administration clearly isn’t going to refrain from commenting, as
demanded by Zhao. In fact, the State Department reported to Congress earlier
today that Hong Kong is no longer autonomous from the rest of China.
That is a significant declaration. To understand why, some background is in
order.
“ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS.”
The relationship between Hong Kong and mainland China is often described as “one
country, two systems,” meaning that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has
sovereignty over the region, but its inhabitants have been allowed to operate
according to their own distinctive traditions and customs. This basic
configuration was established under the Sino-British Joint Declaration. As part
of that agreement, which was signed in Beijing on December 19, 1984, Hong Kong
became a “Special Administrative Region” (SAR) as soon as the British
transferred control over to the Chinese government in 1997. As envisioned in the
1984 treaty, Hong Kong was to remain an economic and cultural enclave even after
the CCP began to exercise its sovereignty.
Although the Hong Kong SAR was placed “directly under the authority of the”
Chinese government (PRC), it was also promised a “high degree of autonomy”—a
phrase that is key to the ongoing political dispute and the State Department’s
new report to Congress.
The phrase “one country, two systems” doesn’t appear in the text of the 1984
agreement, but the concept grew out of the “high degree of autonomy” granted to
Hong Kong. The “social and economic system in Hong Kong” was to “remain
unchanged” after China resumed the “exercise of sovereignty,” according to the
joint declaration. The city’s inhabitants were to have their “[r]ights and
freedoms, private property, ownership of enterprises, legitimate rights of
inheritance and foreign investment” all “protected by law.” And the Hong Kong
SAR, run by “local inhabitants,” was “vested with executive, legislative and
independent judicial power including that of final adjudication.”
The 1984 accord left most of the details concerning the day-to-day structure and
operations of the Hong Kong SAR open-ended. One area was carved out as an
exception, “foreign and defense affairs,” which were placed under the purview of
the PRC. In 1990, the National People’s Congress (NPC) formally adopted the
“Basic Law,” a lengthy document setting forth the terms under which Hong Kong
would be governed. The “Basic Law” is supposed to enshrine the concept of “one
country, two systems”—a principle the CCP has not rhetorically abandoned, even
if today it really desires just one system.
MASS PROTESTS WERE ORGANIZED IN JUNE 2019 IN OPPOSITION TO PROPOSED NEW
EXTRADITION LAW.
Many of Hong Kong’s inhabitants are concerned that the CCP and the SAR are
undermining the city’s “high degree of autonomy.” In April 2019, Hong Kong’s
Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (“Carrie Lam”) submitted new
legislation to the city’s Legislative Council (Legco) that would have permitted
extraditions to the mainland. Such extraditions were not previously legal. The
move raised the possibility that the CCP could use the new law for political
retribution.
Hong Kong’s Legco was set to consider the legislation in mid-June 2019 when mass
protests were held over several days. Protest organizers claim that 1 million
people attended the initial peaceful demonstration, which began on June 9, with
the crowd growing to an estimated 2 million people over the next week. (Hong
Kong’s police force claims the number was much lower, ranging from 250,000 to
350,000 people.) The initial protests were the first in a wave that has rocked
Hong Kong and unsettled the CCP ever since.
Even though Lam backed down from the proposed legislation, the protesters sensed
that something nefarious was afoot. They issued a list of five demands: the
legislation be revoked, all charges against the protesters be dropped, officials
retract their claim that the protests were “riots” (an incendiary way of framing
the largely peaceful affair), an independent body investigate claims of police
brutality, and universal suffrage be granted to Hong Kongers so they can elect
the chief executive and other members of the Legco. Lam acquiesced only to the
first of the five demands.
Although the extradition law was the immediate cause of the protests, Hong
Kong’s residents have been worried about the CCP’s machinations for the past two
decades.
According to an analysis by the Congressional Research Service, many Hong
Kongers think that the CCP and the SAR have worked to undermine the city’s “high
degree of autonomy” since the late 1990s, exerting influence over the Legco and
interfering with its judicial autonomy. “Even before the [SAR] was formed,” the
CRS writes, “China’s central government created a ‘provisional Legislative
Council’ to replace the last Legco elected during British rule, claiming that
changes made by the British in the 1996 Legco election procedures violated the
provisions of the Joint Declaration.”
That is, the CCP sought to control the Legco from the outset.
Other moves followed. In 1999, for instance, the National People’s Congress
Standing Committee (NPCSC) overturned a decision by Hong Kong’s Court of Final
Appeal that would have granted residency to mainland children born to parents
who were already permanent residents of Hong Kong. In 2014, according to the CRS
analysis, the NPCSC decreed that universal suffrage would be granted in Legco
elections, but only if a “nominating committee” picked the candidates who could
run, thereby giving Beijing control over the body. Tens of thousands of
protesters took to the streets, shutting down major commercial roads and forcing
then-Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying to scuttle the measure. But that didn’t end
the NPCSC’s machinations. In 2016, the NPCSC ruled that Legco members could be
disqualified if they were not “sincere and solemn”—a move that paved the way for
Leung to “have six pro-democracy Legco members” ousted.
Many Hong Kongers are also concerned about “Mainlandization”—a CCP initiative to
transform the city’s culture, thereby eroding the citizens’ autonomy. According
to the CRS write-up, this includes CCP efforts to reform Hong Kong’s educational
system and indoctrinate young students, implant up to 150 “Mainlanders” within
the city each day, and further integrate Hong Kong’s economy into the country’s
CCP-dominated system.
Against this backdrop, it is easy to see why Hong Kong’s protesters see the
proposed new security law as just the latest impingement on their autonomy.
THE CCP TRIES TO PIN BLAME ON “EXTERNAL FORCES.”
Xi Jinping and the CCP knew that the proposed security law would be
controversial, to say the least. So, the CCP’s “Wolf Warrior” diplomats quickly
got to work—claiming that the law is necessary to defend against nefarious
foreign influence in Hong Kong. The CCP has blamed the U.S. and U.K. for the
protest movement from the beginning, a charge that isn’t backed up by the
evidence. As explained above, Hong Kongers have their own legitimate concerns
about the CCP’s intentions and actions. But Xi’s loyalists seek to deflect
attention from these concerns, highlighting the alleged role played by outsiders
in spawning the protests.
On May 21, China’s embassies disseminated a message written by the foreign
ministry titled, “Upholding national security is the precondition and guarantee
for the prosperity and development of Hong Kong.” The central claim in the
statement is this: “The opposition in Hong Kong have long colluded with external
forces to carry out acts of secession, subversion, infiltration and destruction
against the Chinese mainland.”
Ominously, China’s foreign ministry claims that the protesters’ “activities have
posed a grave threat to China’s sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity”
and it is they who have generated “a serious challenge to the principle of ‘one
country, two systems,’ and presented a real threat to China’s national
security.” Hong Kong “has become a notable source of risk to China’s national
security,” the foreign ministry claims, and “[u]pholding national security is a
core requirement” to maintain the principle “one country, two systems.”
Although many of the protesters see the SAR as a tool of Beijing, the foreign
ministry blames the authority for failing to keep matters in check. Since “the
return of Hong Kong 23 years ago, the SAR has not acted out its constitutional
duty for national security in line with China’s Constitution and the Basic Law,”
the foreign ministry writes. “There is a clear loophole in Hong Kong’s legal
system and an absence of a mechanism of enforcement.”
China’s foreign ministry is right that there is a “loophole” in Hong Kong’s
political system, but the CCP is trying to exploit it by blaming foreign powers
for the protests. As noted above, the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration
envisioned an enclave that enjoyed economic and cultural autonomy, but deferred
to Beijing on foreign affairs and defense issues—that is, national security. And
the CCP claims that the SAR failed to enact appropriate security legislation
under the “Basic Law,” meaning Beijing now needs to step in. The CCP justifies
that move, in large part, by blaming foreign actors for the rolling crisis. In
other words, the party seeks to control Hong Kong’s internal affairs, thereby
ending its “high degree of autonomy,” by pointing to the threat of a foreign
bogeyman—that’s the national security “loophole.”
STATE DEPARTMENT FINDS HONG KONG IS NO LONGER AUTONOMOUS FROM MAINLAND CHINA.
Under the Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, the State Department is required to
certify to Congress whether or not the region remains “sufficiently autonomous”
from the rest of China. That is intended to ensure that Hong Kong receives
preferential treatment on a range of economic and political matters, so long as
the CCP hasn’t brought its “high degree of autonomy” to an end.
In a major announcement earlier today, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reported
to Congress that he can “no longer” certify that Hong Kong is “autonomous from
China, given facts on the ground.”
“While the United States once hoped that free and prosperous Hong Kong would
provide a model for authoritarian China, it is now clear that China is modelling
Hong Kong after itself,” Pompeo said in a statement.
It remains to be seen what this means for American policy. But we can be certain
of one thing: China’s “Wolf Warriors” will howl in reply.
*Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
and the Senior Editor for FDD’s Long War Journal. Follow Tom on Twitter @thomasjoscelyn.
Question: "What does the Bible say about racism?"
GotQuestions.org/May 29/2020
Answer: The first thing to understand in this discussion is that there is only
one race—the human race. Caucasians, Africans, Asians, Indians, Arabs, and Jews
are not different races. Rather, they are different ethnicities of the human
race. All human beings have the same physical characteristics (with minor
variations, of course). More importantly, all human beings are equally created
in the image and likeness of God (Genesis 1:26-27). God loved the world so much
that He sent Jesus to lay down His life for us (John 3:16). The “world”
obviously includes all ethnic groups.
God does not show partiality or favoritism (Deuteronomy 10:17; Acts 10:34;
Romans 2:11; Ephesians 6:9), and neither should we. James 2:4 describes those
who discriminate as “judges with evil thoughts.” Instead, we are to love our
neighbors as ourselves (James 2:8). In the Old Testament, God divided humanity
into two “racial” groups: Jews and Gentiles. God’s intent was for the Jews to be
a kingdom of priests, ministering to the Gentile nations. Instead, for the most
part, the Jews became proud of their status and despised the Gentiles. Jesus
Christ put an end to this, destroying the dividing wall of hostility (Ephesians
2:14). All forms of racism, prejudice, and discrimination are affronts to the
work of Christ on the cross.
Jesus commands us to love one another as He loves us (John 13:34). If God is
impartial and loves us with impartiality, then we need to love others with that
same high standard. Jesus teaches in Matthew 25 that whatever we do to the least
of His brothers, we do to Him. If we treat a person with contempt, we are
mistreating a person created in God’s image; we are hurting somebody whom God
loves and for whom Jesus died.
Racism, in varying forms and to various degrees, has been a plague on humanity
for thousands of years. Brothers and sisters of all ethnicities, this should not
be. Victims of racism, prejudice, and discrimination need to forgive. Ephesians
4:32 declares, “Be kind and compassionate to one another, forgiving each other,
just as in Christ God forgave you.” Racists may not deserve your forgiveness,
but we deserved God’s forgiveness far less. Those who practice racism,
prejudice, and discrimination need to repent. “Present yourselves to God as
being alive from the dead, and your members as instruments of righteousness to
God” (Romans 6:13). May Galatians 3:28 be completely realized, “There is neither
Jew nor Greek, slave nor free, male nor female, for you are all one in Christ
Jesus.”