LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 08/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.may08.19.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
God did not give us a spirit of cowardice,
but rather a spirit of power and of love and of self-discipline
Second Letter to Timothy 01/06-14: “For this reason I remind you to rekindle the
gift of God that is within you through the laying on of my hands; for God did
not give us a spirit of cowardice, but rather a spirit of power and of love and
of self-discipline. Do not be ashamed, then, of the testimony about our Lord or
of me his prisoner, but join with me in suffering for the gospel, relying on the
power of God, who saved us and called us with a holy calling, not according to
our works but according to his own purpose and grace. This grace was given to us
in Christ Jesus before the ages began, but it has now been revealed through the
appearing of our Saviour Christ Jesus, who abolished death and brought life and
immortality to light through the gospel. For this gospel I was appointed a
herald and an apostle and a teacher, and for this reason I suffer as I do. But I
am not ashamed, for I know the one in whom I have put my trust, and I am sure
that he is able to guard until that day what I have entrusted to him. Hold to
the standard of sound teaching that you have heard from me, in the faith and
love that are in Christ Jesus. Guard the good treasure entrusted to you, with
the help of the Holy Spirit living in us.”.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese
& Lebanese Related News published on May 07-08/19
May 07th/2008 Hezbollah’s Bloody Invasion Of Beirut & Mount Lebanon
Angry Metn Residents Fight Back Against Forcible Power Lines Installation
Mansourieh Residents Scuffle with Police over Installation of High-Voltage Lines
Hankache, Sayegh Brief Maronite Patriarch on Mansourieh Standoff
Lebanese Govt. to Ask BDL, Armed Forces for Numbers before Taking Budget
Decisions
Aoun Says Lower and Middle Class Incomes Won't be Touched
Beirut Stock Exchange Announces Resumption of Trading
Central Bank Employees Suspend Strike for Three Days
Hariri: All Sectors, Including Banks, Will Contribute to Budget
Mustaqbal Slams 'Suspicious Campaign' against Salameh, Banks
UK Foreign Office Official Meets Top Lebanese Officials
Jumblat Urges Pacification as Abu Faraj's Family Drops Lawsuit
Ogero Employees Pledge to Continue Strike
Shamsi Says UAE Plans to Lift Travel Ban to Lebanon
The Hezbollah Sleeper Agent Busted for Black Ops in America
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on May 07-08/19
Europe 'will reimpose sanctions' if Iran fails nuclear deal commitments
Iran to Restart Some Nuclear Activity in Response to U.S. Withdrawal from
Nuclear Deal
Escalation in Syria's Idlib Rattles Months-old Truce
More than 150,000 displaced in northwest Syria in one week: UN
Anger in Istanbul as protesters reject re-run of election for city’s mayor
Six ministers face sack in Iraq Cabinet shake-up
IMF Chief Says US-China Tensions 'Threat' to World Economy
Litles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on May 07-08/19
May 07th/2008 Hezbollah’s Bloody Invasion Of Beirut & Mount Lebanon/Elias
Bejjani/May 07/2019
The Hezbollah Sleeper Agent Busted for Black Ops in America/Michael Daly/The
Daily Beast/May 07/2019
Escalation in Syria's Idlib Rattles Months-old Truce/AFP/May 07/2019
Welcome to the Post-Middle East ISIS/Hassan Hassan/ Foreign Policy/May 07/2019
Kushner's Middle East Mission Impossible/Aaron David Miller/The Hill/May 07/2019
Support for Israel in the US starting to shift/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/May
08/2019
Can Trump get Iranian leaders to the negotiating table/Camelia Entekhabifard/Arab
News/May 08/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published
on May 07-08/19
May 07th/2008 Hezbollah’s Bloody Invasion Of
Beirut & Mount Lebanon
Elias Bejjani/May 07/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/74558/elias-bejjani-may-07th-2008-hezbollahs-bloody-invasion-of-beirut-mount-lebanon/
On May 07th, 2008 Hezbollah Armed Terrorist Iranian militia proxy invaded the
Lebanese capital, Beirut, and some regions in Mount Lebanon at the backdrop of a
government resolution regarding the its illegal telecommunication network The
Terrorist Hezbollah, backed by its pro Syrian and pro Iranian March 08 armed
terrorists, broke in some Lebanese deputies’ houses, assassinated innocent
citizens on the streets, burned and looted some media institutions belonging to
Future Movement, and stopped by force the Future TV News Channel from
broadcasting after spreading its armed men inside its studios.
Dozens of innocent civilians were killed and injured on the streets and in their
houses in this criminal invasion.
The Invasion also targeted some areas of mount Lebanon few days after that of
Beirut.
Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah appointed Iranian leader shamelessly called the
invasion a day of glory.
Sadly the Lebanese army watched the Hezbollah criminal invasion without taking
any deterrent procedure while totally abandoned its obligations and national
duties.
The Army’s Chief at the time of the invasion, Michael Suleiman was rewarded for
his pro Hezbollah role and afterwards by the help and full support of Iran,
Syria and Hezbollah was elected illegally as Lebanon’s president.
It remains that Hezbollah is not Lebanese by any means, or under any
constitutional or patriotic criteria. Hezbollah is a mere Iranian Occupation
tool.
This Shiite Iranian armed Militia is an Iranian Army and has been occupying
Lebanon since 2005 after the Syrian Army was forced to withdraw as a result of a
huge public demonstration known as the 14th Of March Demo and Revolution.
While remembering the bloody and criminal invasion, the Lebanese in both Lebanon
and Diaspora, citizens, officials and politicians are all ought to never ever
succumb to Hezbollah’s occupation and at the same time are urgently required to
call for the implementation of the two UN resolutions 1559 and 1701.
On this day, our prayers go to the souls of the innocent Lebanese victims that
were killed by Hezbollah on the May, 2008 invasion in both Beirut and Mount
Lebanon.
Angry Metn Residents Fight Back Against Forcible Power
Lines Installation
Kataeb.org/Tuesday 07th May 2019/The Energy Ministry on Tuesday dispatched
workers to start the forcible installation of high-voltage power lines in
Mansourieh, with Electricite du Liban workers being protected by security forces
to prevent residents from hindering the works. The angry residents, who have
spared no effort to stop the hazardous power lines from being installed over the
area's houses and schools, scuffled with the police that used force to suppress
the protesters, some of whom were seen live on TV being hit on the head with
batons. Works were later stopped after the residents put pressure by blocking a
main road in the area. It is worth noting that installation was taking place in
a private land whose owner objected to the brazen encroachment. "I've spent two
hours telling them to get off my land, but no one was listening to me," the
owner told MTV. Protests have been staged in the area since 2011 to denounce
plans for high-voltage power lines which, according to subsequent energy
ministers, are needed to tackle the country’s electricity crisis as the project
aims to connect a power plant in Mkalles to one in Bsalim. A delegation from the
Metn area had met with Energy Minister Nada Boustani to explain to her the
residents' concerns and demand that the power lines would be installed
underground instead. However, the minister refused to pay heed to the residents'
fears, deciding to go on with the plan despite objections. Kataeb lawmaker Elias
Hankache called on both President Michel Aoun and Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rahi
to intervene to resolve this problem, affirming that the residents will not
allow power lines to be installed above the ground. Hankache is set to meet with
the Maronite patriarch later on Tuesday, Voice of Lebanon radio station
reported. “Force must be used against drug dealers and the corrupt, not against
unarmed citizens,” Hankache told MTV channel as he was shoring up the residents'
action against the forcible installation works. For his part, Kataeb politburo
member and Former Economy Minister Alain Hakim posted a video showing the
scuffle between Mansourieh residents and security forces. “What is happening is
unacceptable, and the state’s forcible installation of high-voltage power lines
in Mansourieh reminds us of the same practices that used to take place during
the Syrian occupation in Lebanon,” Hakim said in a tweet.
Mansourieh Residents Scuffle with Police over Installation
of High-Voltage Lines
Naharnet/May 07/2019/A scuffle erupted between workers from Electricte du Liban,
the security forces and residents of the North Metn town of Mansourieh area
against the backdrop of installation of high-voltage electricity lines. The
residents of the area prevented EDL workers from installing the power lines. The
security forces intervened which led to a scuffle. The residents argue that the
controversial project to connect a power plant in Mkalles to another in Bsalim
to supply more power to the region is dangerous on public health and call for
the installation of the lines underground. The Ministry of Energy argues that
the electricity lines have no health risks on the residents. MP Elias Hankash
“regretted the use of force against the people,” and voiced calls on President
Michel Aoun and Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi to “intervene.”
Hankache, Sayegh Brief Maronite Patriarch on Mansourieh
Standoff
Kataeb.org/Tuesday 07th May 2019/Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rahi on Tuesday
denounced the excessive use of force on Mansourieh residents and Kataeb lawmaker
Elias Hankache while they were protesting the forcible installation of
high-voltage power lines in the area. Al-Rahi met with Hankache and Kataeb's
Deputy-President Salim Sayegh who both briefed him on what happened earlier
during the day in Mansourieh where security forces attacked the residents who
were trying to prevent EDL workers from installing the hazardous power lines
near their homes. Speaking following the meeting, Sayegh said the attack on
Hankache encroaches on the Parliament's prestige given that the lawmaker
represents the entire nation and all the Lebanese. Sayegh slammed the excessive
use of power against Mansourieh residents as shameful, adding that the ruling
authority seems to have lost the basic standards of good behavior and
performance. “Everyone must understand that the project does not affect is a
couple of apartments only, but 44,000 households. There is a health and
environmental massacre that is being perpetrated by the authority in this area,”
Sayegh blasted.
Sayegh urged Interior Minister Raya Al-Hassan, who is keen on safeguarding human
rights, not to cover up such acts and decisions.
Lebanese Govt. to Ask BDL, Armed Forces for Numbers before
Taking Budget Decisions
Naharnet/May 07/2019/The Cabinet continued its discussion of the 2019 draft
state budget on Tuesday, announcing that it intends to ask Bank du Liban and the
armed forces for "financial data and numbers." "We hope to finalize the issue of
the budget on Friday or before Friday," Information Minister Jamal al-Jarrah
said after the session. "Things are very good and the ongoing discussion is
responsible and based on numbers," he added. "There are some financial data and
numbers that we will ask from BDL and the armed forces so that they be studied
and analyzed tomorrow in order to take decisions," Jarrah explained.
Aoun Says Lower and Middle Class Incomes Won't be Touched
Naharnet/May 07/2019/President Michel Aoun warned Tuesday over the economic harm
caused by labor strikes, as he reassured that the incomes of lower and middle
class citizens will not be touched. Meeting with a delegation from the General
Confederation of Lebanese Workers and other syndicates, Aoun urged them to
"evaluate the pressing situation and refrain from subjecting the country to
further damage and threats." He also promised to study the concerns they raised
during the meeting, reassuring that he "will not accept any measure that targets
the incomes of the poor and middle classes."
Beirut Stock Exchange Announces Resumption of Trading
Kataeb.org/Tuesday 07th May 2019/Beirut Stock Exchange announced that it will
resume its work starting Wednesday morning, one day after it had suspended
trading due to the strike staged by the Central Bank employees. The bourse had
to shut down after the Central Bank strike had made it unable to carry out the
clearance and settlement process of transactions on time. A few hours after the
Syndicate of Central Bank Employees decided on Tuesday to lift their strike for
three days, the Beirut Stock Exchange posted a circular on its website
announcing the resumption of trading in its market.
Central Bank Employees Suspend Strike for Three Days
Kataeb.org/Tuesday 07th May 2019/The Syndicate of Central Bank Employees on
Tuesday decided to suspend its strike for three days, pending what will happen
concerning the government's planned measures to cut the salaries and benefits of
public servants as part of its 2019 budget. Following a meeting of their general
assembly, the Central Bank employees announced that their strike will be lifted
until Friday, when another meeting will be held to decide on the next step to
make. Abbas Awada, head of the syndicate, had told Reuters that there were
positive developments in contacts with officials, and said central bank
employees wanted to show good will and to "relieve the market".
Hariri: All Sectors, Including Banks, Will Contribute to
Budget
Kataeb.org/Tuesday 07th May 2019/Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Monday said that
Lebanon is not on the brink of bankruptcy as it is being claimed, warning,
however, that the failure to approve a realistic budget that reduces the state
deficit would be similar to a "suicide operation" against the economy. Speaking
following a meeting with President Michel Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih
Berri at the Baabda Palace, Hariri criticized strikes being staged by public
servants, assuring that most of what is being spread about the budget content is
wrong. "Things are not solved through strikes, and dialogue is not forced
through pressure." "We won't harm people with a limited income and you will find
out that 70 percent of what is being said in the street does not exist in the
budget," Hariri stated, hoping that the government will pass the budget at the
end of this week. "All sectors will contribute to the budget, including the
banking sector," he added.
Mustaqbal Slams 'Suspicious Campaign' against Salameh,
Banks
Naharnet/May 07/2019/Al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc on Tuesday slammed what it
called a "suspicious campaign" against Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh and
the banking sector. In a statement issued after its weekly meeting, the bloc
said the perceived campaign is "distorting facts and inciting the public opinion
against monetary and banking policies, while using a populist approach in
addressing economic and social issues."The bloc also warned that incitement to
"street protests, blocking roads and paralyzing institutions will not address
the real sources of the current problems."
UK Foreign Office Official Meets Top Lebanese Officials
Naharnet/May 07/2019/Director General for Political Affairs at the British
Foreign & Commonwealth Office Richard Moore visited Lebanon Tuesday and met with
senior Lebanese politicians and officials. This is his first visit to Lebanon
since assuming his role in April 2018. Moore, accompanied by British Ambassador
to Lebanon Chris Rampling, held meetings with Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil,
Speaker Nabih Berri, Director General of General Security Abbas Ibrahim,
Director Generals at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ghadi Khoury and Hadi
Hashem, and senior advisors to Prime Minister Saad Hariri. The discussions
focused on local and regional issues pertaining to security and stability,
according to a statement issued by the British embassy. The Political Director
focuses on the UK’s key foreign policy objectives and has several areas of
responsibility and regions including the Middle East and North Africa. After the
visit, Ambassador Rampling said: "We are pleased to welcome to Lebanon Richard
Moore, one of the UK Foreign Ministry’s most senior officials. Richard is deeply
familiar with the region, and the conversations were constructive and
forward-looking."
Jumblat Urges Pacification as Abu Faraj's Family Drops Lawsuit
Naharnet/May 07/2019/"All we want in Choueifat is for justice to be fulfilled,"
Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat said on Tuesday, as the
family of a slain PSP member dropped its lawsuit in the case as part of an
initiative sponsored by President Michel Aoun. A letter dropping the lawsuit was
handed to Aoun Tuesday by the ministers Akram Shehayyeb and Wael Abu Faour. "The
letter will be delivered to the relevant judicial authorities upon the handover
of the suspect Amin al-Souqi, so that the judiciary rules without any
interferences or pressures and with guarantees from the President," Shehayyeb
said. Jumblat meawhile tweeted that he shoulders full responsibility for the
step, urging supporters to "shun tensions." "This is not the first time that
this method has been followed, according to the law and the social norms,"
Jumblat said. "I thank President Aoun and the clerics for their efforts and
help," he added. Abu Faraj was killed in a clash with supporters of the Lebanese
Democratic Party that followed the 2018 elections. Al-Souqi, an LDP supporter,
is believed to have fled to Syria.
Ogero Employees Pledge to Continue Strike
Naharnet/May 07/2019/Employees of the state-run telecommunications company Ogero
announced in a press conference on Tuesday the continuation of their strike over
austere budget measures proposed in the state budget. "We raise the voice high.
State failures keep accumulating and burdening citizens after the disruption of
a number of service sectors," protesters said. For his part, head of the General
Labor Confederation, Beshara el-Asmar, hailed the General Assembly's decision to
continue the strike. Asmar praised President Michel Aoun and Speaker Nabih
Berri's “responsiveness”; however, he asked Prime Minister Saad Hariri to be
“more responsive to the strikes.”
Shamsi Says UAE Plans to Lift Travel Ban to Lebanon
Naharnet/May 07/2019/UAE Ambassador to Lebanon Hamad al-Shamsi on Tuesday
confirmed that his country will soon be lifting restrictions on travel of
Emirati citizens to Lebanon. He said a team from the UAE Civil Aviation
Department is meeting with its Lebanese counterparts in the Directorate of Civil
Aviation and studying technical matters. Shamsi affirmed “good relations with
Lebanon,” noting “the UAE’s keenness on its stability.”His remarks came after
holding talks with Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil at the foreign ministry
premises. “Contacts are undergoing at the highest levels and we are keen on
Lebanon’s stability and support it in that direction.”
The Hezbollah Sleeper Agent Busted for Black Ops in America
Michael Daly/The Daily Beast/May 07/2019
Naomi Rodriguez is an emergency medical technician who works 12-hour shifts in
the streets of The Bronx, so she immediately recognized the irony when the
unremarkable-looking man who lived one floor above her was alleged to be a
terrorist sleeper agent.
“I save lives, and here’s this one trying to take them,” she remarked this week
from the doorway of her apartment on West 238th Street in the borough’s
Kingsbridge Heights section.
Neither Ali Kourani’s attire nor demeanor gave any hint of his religion or
ideology.
“How do you say, it’s just unexpected,” Rodriguez added. “Very unexpected.”
She recalled that at the time of his arrest last June, the news called
34-year-old Kourani “the Kingsbridge Heights Terrorist.” But he was not just
another lone wolf inspired to Islamic radicalism by internet hate sites and
following online instructions to build a bomb in the kitchen of his mom.
As will become clear when he goes on trial Monday, this seemingly unremarkable
man whom Rodriguez saw in the stairway is alleged to have been a longtime
undercover operative for an international terrorist organization. Kourani had
allegedly been recruited as part of a plan to exact revenge for the car-bomb
killing of a terror mastermind whom a former CIA agent called “probably the most
intelligent, most capable operative we’ve ever run across, including the KGB or
anybody else.” Kourani was, by his own multiple admissions, trained in
explosives and small arms, along with secure communications, survival and
interrogation as a member of Hezbollah’s External Security Organization (ESO),
also known as the Islamic Jihad Organization (IJO). Or simply 910.
“Or Hezbollah black ops,” the FBI adds in court papers.
Kourani was born in Lebanon in June 1984 to a family he claims has connections
with Hezbollah. He has told the FBI that his clan were “the bin Ladens of
Lebanon.” He was 16 when his familial social stature enabled him to attend a
45-day terror boot camp.
“During the training, Kourani was taught to fire AK-47 assault rifles and rocket
launchers, as well as basic military tactics, by Hezbollah personnel wearing
uniforms,” a subsequent criminal complaint says. In 2003, at the age of 19, he
emigrated to the U.S.. He lived in a two-family house in Queens, and studied
biomedical engineering at the City University of New York. The course of his
life was to change when Imad Mughniyah—second in command of Hezbollah and
founding head of its military, intelligence and security wing—was killed in
Damascus in 2008.
Mughniyah was behind the 1983 truck bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut that
killed seven CIA operatives along with 10 other Americans, as well as the truck
bombing of the Marine barracks there later that year that killed 240. His full
list of killings includes the 1985 torture and murder of Beirut CIA station
chief William Buckley, the torture and killing of an American sailor aboard a
hijacked airliner later that year, and the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi
Arabia that killed 19 U.S. Air Force personnel.
Add to that the killing of several hundred Israelis. Not surprisingly, Hezbollah
blamed the U.S.and Israel for the killing of its mastermind and vowed revenge.
Kourani would tell the FBI that Hezbollah sought to do so by copying an Israeli
tactic that had long been used by the Russians, and was later portrayed in the
TV series The Americans. “Kourani stated that the ESO wanted to copy the Israeli
Mossad and sought to recruit ‘sleepers,’” an FBI report says. “These sleepers
were tasked to maintain ostensibly normal lives the world over… [and] could be
tasked with operational activity should the ESO decide to take action.”
Kourani was in Lebanon visiting his family when a cleric in his home village
recruited him for the new effort, likely because of his education and the fact
that he was already rooted in the U.S.. He was a perfect candidate for a
“sleeper,” a seemingly ordinary person leading a normal life who could be
activated to carry out terrorist acts when called.
The new recruit was instructed to don a helmet with a blacked-out visor. He was
driven to meet the man who would allegedly be his handler.
“Whom Kourani knew as ‘Fadi,’” the criminal complaint says. “Fadi typically wore
a mask during their meetings.”
The complaint details one of Fadi’s first instructions: “Obtain United States
citizenship and a U.S. passport as soon as possible.”
Kourani fulfilled the first part of that mission in April of 2009. He applied
for a passport the following week, and for a visa to China a week later. He is
said to have flown in to Guangzhou, the location of a company that manufactures
purported first aid ice packs that contain ammonium nitrate, an active
ingredient in explosives. A large number of these “ice packs” would subsequently
be found in Hezbollah bomb factories in Thailand and Cyprus. Guangzhou is also a
major center for counterfeit clothing, which has been described as a major
source of income for Hezbollah.
That same month, Kourani received his bachelor’s degree back in New York. He
went on to receive an MBA from Keller Graduate School, making his cover all the
more convincing.
In 2011, Fadi summoned Kourani to Lebanon for military training. He returned to
the U.S. and allegedly followed Fadi’s instructions to identify possible sources
of weapons and to research how to open businesses in New York that Hezbollah
could use.
“As cover for the storage of firearms intended for ESO assassinations and
attacks in the U.S.,” the FBI report explains.
Kourani was further asked to scout out the security around the Israeli consulate
in New York and identify Jewish businessmen in the city who were former or
current members of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) for “either assassination or
recruitment purposes,” according to the FBI report.
The list of surveillance targets is also said to have included the federal
building in Manhattan where the FBI has its offices and a Secret Service
facility in Brooklyn. Kourani allegedly made videos of a U.S. Army Armory in
Manhattan, and JFK airport.
In the meantime, he and his wife had two children. One of the kids triggered a
brief interruption in the e-mail communications he maintained with his handler
via a Toshiba laptop. “His daughter spilled something on it,” an FBI report
says.
The Toshiba was destroyed, but Kourani purchased an Apple laptop and allegedly
continued his double life. He might have been the perfect sleeper had he not
gone into the counterfeit clothing business. He was caught with 190 pairs of Ugg
boots after he ran a stop sign in Queens in November 2013.
“I make about two dollars per pair,” the resulting police report quotes him
saying. “I buy them for 20 dollars.”
The arrest prompted the NYPD Intelligence Division to interview Kourani on a
number of occasions. He came to the further attention of law enforcement in
September of 2015, when arriving from a trip to Lebanon back to the same airport
he had extensively surveilled.
“Law enforcement personnel determined that Kourani’s cellphone did not contain a
memory card, but found a memory card secreted under a travel sticker affixed to
Kourani’s U.S. passport,” the complaint reports.
Kourani had gone seven years as an alleged sleeper agent without being activated
in any operational capacity. He deduced that the most likely reason was
Hezbollah’s 2015 discovery that Mohammad Shawraba, the very man in charge of
external operations and the revenge mission in particular, was an Israeli mole.
Shawraba was said to have sabotaged numerous attack plans while the sleeper
agents slumbered on.
On April 1, 2016—“April’s Fools Day,” Kourani would note—he stopped into his
regular Starbucks in Queens. A man approached and showed him an FBI badge.
“We know your affiliation with Hezbollah,’” the agent said.
“You most likely have the wrong person,” Kourani said.
At a McDonald’s next door, the agent handed him a file folder containing a
cellphone.
“I'm going to reach you at that phone number,” the agent said. “Make sure that
no one knows that you have that phone.” The FBI repeatedly called Kourani over
the days ahead to arrange meetings, during which they urged him to become an
informant.
The day then came when an attorney Kourani had retained left a voicemail message
with the FBI. In a series of meetings at his lawyer’s office, Kourani is said to
have told the agents about his life as a sleeper agent, but the FBI remained
convinced he was not telling all he knew. The agents sought to shake more out of
him. On June 1, 2018, the agents quietly arrested him up in the Bronx, where he
was living with relatives after separating from his wife. He was booked on eight
counts of terrorism-related offenses at the same federal building he had
surveilled for Hezbollah, but waived a court appearance and the criminal
complaint was sealed. He was held overnight at a nearby Marriott Hotel.
“We thought keeping him there in custody versus in a prison would help preserve
the possibility of cooperation,” the agent would testify. The next day, the
agents and prosecutors concluded that Kourani was still holding back and would
not make a reliable informant. He was brought to court and the criminal
complaint against him was unsealed. He was held without bail. Search warrants
were executed for his emails and internet history, as well as his Bronx
apartment above Naomi Rodriguez. Agents there found lined notebook paper on
which Kourani appeared to have handwritten notes in English concerning what he
wanted from the FBI, including cash and an apartment in a Manhattan building
with a doorman.
Kourani retained a new lawyer, Alexei Schacht, who sought to suppress what
amounted to a multi-installment confession. The judge ruled the statements to
the FBI admissible and they are expected to be used against him at the trial set
to commence Monday.
Up in the Bronx, Rodriguez told The Daily Beast that Kourani was living directly
above her with a cousin and the cousin’s teenage son. She described the teenager
as, “a good kid… really good,” adding, “We don't have an elevator. When I do
food shopping, he helps me carry some bags or helps me with the shopping
cart.”She could only remember seeing Kourani once, as she is seldom home,
leaving early to work 12-hour shifts as an EMT and returning late from attending
school to become a paramedic. She is also raising two boys of her own, aged 10
and 4.
Of the accused terror sleeper agent who was her upstairs neighbor, she observed,
“At the end of the day he was still willing to answer that phone call and do
what they asked. You’re saying, ‘Okay, call me when you need me.’”
She added, “Being willing is just as guilty.”
Latest LCCC English Miscellaneous Reports & News published
on May 07-08/19
Europe 'will reimpose sanctions' if Iran fails nuclear deal commitments
Reuters/May 07/2019/PARIS: European countries will reimpose
sanctions on Iran if it reneges on commitments under its nuclear deal, a source
at the French presidency said on Tuesday, after Tehran said it would scale back
its compliance a year after Washington pulled out. Iran dismissed a US
announcement of the deployment of an aircraft carrier to the Middle East as old
news, recycled for psychological warfare, and said it would soon announce plans
to roll back some of its commitments under the 2015 deal. Tensions have risen on
the eve of the anniversary of President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the
nuclear deal, under which Iran agreed to curbs on its nuclear program in return
for the lifting of international sanctions. The Trump administration has
restored US sanctions and extended them, effectively ordering countries around
the world to stop buying Iranian oil or face sanctions of their own.
Iran has continued complying with the deal. Washington’s European allies, which
oppose the US pull-out, have tried and failed to come up with ways to blunt the
economic impact of the US move while urging Iran to continue to comply. Iranian
media reported that Tehran will write to the countries still signed up to the
deal — US allies Britain, France and Germany as well as Russia and China — on
Wednesday to give them details about plans to “diminish its commitments” under
the deal. Iranian state news reports have said Iran does not plan to pull out of
the deal, but will revive some nuclear activity that was halted under it. The
French presidential source said the European countries did not yet know
precisely what steps Iran was now planning, but they would have to reimpose
sanctions on Iran if those steps amount to reneging on the deal. “We do not want
Tehran to announce tomorrow actions that would violate the nuclear agreement,
because in this case we Europeans would be obliged to reimpose sanctions as per
the terms of the agreement,” the source said. “We sent messages to Tehran to say
that we were determined to implement the agreement, that we really wanted them
to stay in this agreement even though we took into account the complexity of the
situation and passed on the same messages to our American allies,” the French
source said. US officials have spoken in recent days of intelligence suggesting
a military threat from Iran, although they have not given specific details.
“PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE“
US national security adviser John Bolton said on Sunday the United States was
deploying the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and a bomber task force to
the Middle East in a warning over threats by Iranian forces. But Keyvan Khosravi,
spokesman for Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said the Abraham Lincoln
was already due in the Gulf and dismissed the announcement as a “clumsy” attempt
to recycle old news for “psychological warfare.” The United States typically
rotates an aircraft carrier in the Gulf to serve as the flagship of its Fifth
Fleet based in Bahrain. The previous carrier in the area, the John C Stennis,
left in April to sail for home at the end of its deployment. Acting US Defense
Secretary Patrick Shanahan said on Monday he had approved dispatching the
carrier strike group and bombers due to indications of a “credible threat by
Iranian regime forces.” He gave no details of underlying intelligence.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Twitter: “If US and
clients don’t feel safe, it’s because they’re despised by the people of the
region — blaming Iran won’t reverse that.”Iran’s state-run Press TV earlier
said: “The deployment seems to be a ‘regularly scheduled’ one by the US Navy,
and Bolton has just tried to talk it up.”A military adviser to Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the United States was “neither willing nor capable”
of military action against Iran,” the semi-official news agency ISNA reported.
As jitters over the war of words rose, Iran’s rial currency extended its fall on
Tuesday, hovering around a seven-month low of 150,500 against the US dollar on
the unofficial market, foreign exchange websites reported. Since withdrawing
from the nuclear deal, Washington has given waivers to some countries, mainly in
Asia, to keep buying Iranian oil for a limited time. But last week it said it
would now end the waivers to reduce Iran’s crude exports to zero. The
administration also blacklisted Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard Corps as
terrorists. The Guards control a large swathe of Iranian industry, so their
blacklisting could make it harder for foreign companies to do business with
Iran. Iran has responded by declaring all US forces in the Middle East to be
terrorists. It has also made threats to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz in
the Gulf if Tehran were barred from using it. Around 30 percent of the world’s
seaborne oil exports pass through the strait. While neither Shanahan nor Bolton
elaborated on the gist of US intelligence, other US officials told Reuters there
were “multiple, credible threats” against US forces on land, including in Iraq,
by Iran and proxy forces, and at sea.
Iran to Restart Some Nuclear Activity in Response to U.S.
Withdrawal from Nuclear Deal
Reuters/May 07/2019/Iran will restart part of its halted nuclear program in
response to the U.S. withdrawal from a landmark 2015 nuclear deal but does not
itself plan to pull out of the agreement, the state-run IRIB news agency
reported on Monday. Citing a source close to an official commission which
oversees the nuclear deal, IRIB reported that President Hassan Rouhani would
announce that Iran would reduce some of its “minor and general” commitments
under the deal on May 8 - exactly one year after U.S. President Donald Trump
announced the U.S. pullout. Trump subsequently reimposed tough sanctions on
Iran, including on its lifeblood oil exports with the stated intent of reducing
them to zero and starving Iran’s economy. “The Islamic Republic of Iran in
reaction to the exit of America from the nuclear deal and the bad promises of
European countries in carrying out their obligations will restart a part of the
nuclear activities which were stopped under the framework of the nuclear deal,”
the source said, according to IRIB. Similarly, the semi-official Iranian
Students’ News Agency (ISNA) reported that Iran on Wednesday will announce
“reciprocal actions” to the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal, quoting
“knowledgeable sources”. Some European Union leaders had been unofficially told
of Iran’s decision, the report said. The United States acted on Friday to force
Iran to stop producing low-enriched uranium and expanding its only nuclear power
plant.
Trump, who was not in office when the nuclear deal was negotiated, said it was
flawed in Iran’s favor for doing nothing to curb its ballistic missile program
or its support of proxy forces in several Middle East wars. Iran has said its
development of ballistic missiles has nothing to do with its nuclear activity
and is wholly defensive in nature, and that its support for allies around the
Middle East is not Washington’s business.
U.S. DEPLOYMENT TO MIDDLE EAST
Under the 2015 deal, Iran restricted the capacity of its uranium enrichment
program - widely seen as a route to developing a nuclear weapon - in exchange
for a lifting of most international sanctions. U.N. nuclear inspectors have
repeatedly verified Iranian compliance with the accord. Iran has denied ever
pursuing a nuclear weapons program. The other signatories to the deal - European
powers Germany, France and Britain - and Russia and China remain committed to
it. The EU has been looking into ways of preserving its economic benefits that
Iran says must stay or it could abandon the deal.
The Trump administration is now deploying a carrier strike group and bombers to
the Middle East in response to troubling “indications and warnings” from Iran
and to show the United States will retaliate with “unrelenting force” to any
attack, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said on Sunday. Bolton - who
has spearheaded an increasingly hawkish U.S. policy on Iran - said the decision,
which could exacerbate tensions between the two countries, was meant to send a
“clear and unmistakable message” of U.S. resolve to Tehran. U.S. Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo also issued a warning to the Islamic Republic on Sunday. “It
is absolutely the case that we have seen escalatory actions from the Iranians
and it is equally the case that we will hold the Iranians accountable for
attacks on American interests,” Pompeo told reporters aboard a flight en route
to an Arctic Council meeting in Finland. If these actions take place, if they do
by some third-party proxy, a militia group, Hezbollah, we will hold the Iranian
leadership directly accountable for that.”
Escalation in Syria's Idlib Rattles Months-old Truce
AFP/Tuesday 07th May 2019/
Air strikes and shelling killed eight civilians in northwestern Syria Tuesday
after deadly clashes between pro-government forces and jihadists rattled a
months-old truce and sparked a new wave of displacement. At least 53 fighters
have been killed since Monday, in one of the deadliest flare-ups since a
demilitarised zone around the Idlib region was agreed in September last year,
the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. Several deadly
skirmishes have occurred since the deal was reached in Russia but the last few
weeks have seen an uptick in violence inside the planned buffer zone. The region
of some three million people is under the control of a former Al-Qaeda affiliate
in one of the last parts of Syria President Bashar al-Assad has yet to take
back. His government had threatened an all-out assault on the area last year but
that was averted by the deal for a de-militarised buffer zone between his ally
Moscow and rebel backer Ankara. A surge in attacks since April 20 has raised new
fears a government offensive is imminent, prompting thousands of civilians to
flee their homes towards quieter areas deeper inside Idlib province. "This is
the third time we have been displaced but this time is the scariest," said Abu
Ahmad, a 40-year-old from southern Idlib who was fleeing with his family towards
areas near the border with Turkey on Tuesday. "Overflights by warplanes and
shelling have been relentless," said the father of three, his blue pick-up truck
stacked with mattresses, bed sheets and household appliances.
'Urgent de-escalation'
Battles between jihadists and pro-government forces raged overnight around a
hilltop in the northern countryside of Hama province, following an advance by
Assad's forces. Twenty-four pro-government fighters were killed in fierce
fighting, the Observatory said. Twenty-nine jihadists were also killed. They
were members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group dominated by fighters from a
former Al-Qaeda affiliate, and of the Turkistan Islamic Party, a
Uighur-dominated jihadist group. Fighting subsided early Tuesday after
pro-government forces thwarted several counter attacks and consolidated new
positions, Observatory chief Rami Abdul Rahman told AFP. But, the air and
artillery bombardment continued for an eighth straight day, killing eight
civilians, the war monitor said. At least nine civilians were killed in shelling
and air strikes on Monday. State news agency SANA said Syrian troops launched
rocket attacks on armed groups in northwestern Hama province on Tuesday, killing
several fighters, but it did not provide any toll. UN chief Antonio Guterres has
called "for an urgent de-escalation of the situation as the holy month of
Ramadan begins" and urged "the parties to recommit fully to the ceasefire
arrangements of the memorandum signed on 17 September 2018." A UN statement said
Guterres was alarmed by "reports of aerial attacks on population centres and
civilian infrastructure". At least seven health facilities have been hit since
April 28, it said. Nine schools have also been struck since April 30, and many
more have closed their doors indefinitely, it added.
'Limited offensive'-
It remains unclear whether the Syrian government and its Russian ally are
planning to launch a full-scale assault, but Aaron Lund of the Century
Foundation said "a limited offensive into Idlib, peeling off a few areas, should
be easily within their capabilities." He said the recapture of two key highways
running through Idlib -- the M4 and the M5 -- could be among the "many goals"
behind such an operation. Under the September deal, hardliners were supposed to
withdraw from the planned buffer zone, allowing traffic to once again flow along
the two strategic highways, which connect government-held areas with the Turkish
border. Turkey has failed, however, to secure the jihadists' withdrawal,
prompting government forces to take matters into their own hands, Syria
specialist Fabrice Balanche said. Taking the two highways would help Assad boost
the recovery of Syria's nearby second city Aleppo, which remains cut off from
most of its countryside and poorly connected to the rest of the country, he told
AFP. "Restoring traffic on these two axes will reduce transport costs to
Aleppo," he said. Retaking the two highways would also cut the rebel-held region
in two, making it easier for government forces to recapture its southern part
and isolate the jihadists in the north.
More than 150,000 displaced in northwest Syria in one week: UN
Arab News/May 07/2019/KAFR NABL, Syria: Violence in the
northwestern Syrian region of Idlib has displaced more than 150,000 people in
the past week, the UN said Tuesday, as the regime and Russia upped deadly
bombardment of the militant bastion. The uptick in strikes and shelling on the
region dominated by Syria’s former Al-Qaeda affiliate has also knocked 12
hospitals and 10 schools out of action, it said. The militant stronghold has
since September been protected from a massive regime offensive by a buffer zone
deal inked by Damascus ally Russia and rebel backer Turkey. But the region of
some three million people has come under increasing bombardment since the
militant Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham group took full control of it in January. On
Tuesday, air strikes and shelling killed 13 civilians in an eighth day straight
of bombing, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. “We are alarmed by
ongoing reports of aerial attacks on population centers and civilian
infrastructure,” said David Swanson, a spokesman for the UN Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). “More than 152,000 women, children
and men have been displaced in Aleppo and Idlib governorates over the past week
alone,” he told AFP. The recent surge in attacks has raised new fears a
government offensive is imminent, prompting thousands to hit the road. “This is
the third time we have been displaced but this time is the scariest,” said Abu
Ahmad, a 40-year-old from southern Idlib who was fleeing Tuesday with his family
toward areas near the border with Turkey. “Overflights by warplanes and shelling
have been relentless,” said the father of three, his blue pick-up truck stacked
with mattresses and household appliances.
The Idlib region includes a large part of the province of the same name, as well
as adjacent parts of Aleppo and Hama provinces. President Bashar Assad’s regime
is in control of around 60 percent of the country eight years into the civil
war, but Idlib is among the areas still outside government control. Battles
between militants and pro-government forces raged overnight around a hilltop in
the northern countryside of Hama province, following an advance by Assad’s
forces. Twenty-four pro-government fighters and 29 militants were killed in
fierce fighting, the Britain-based Observatory said. The militants were members
of HTS, and of the Turkistan Islamic Party, a Uighur-dominated militant group.
State news agency SANA said Syrian troops launched rocket attacks on armed
groups in northwestern Hama province on Tuesday, killing several fighters, but
it did not provide any toll. UN chief Antonio Guterres has called “for an urgent
de-escalation of the situation as the holy month of Ramadan begins” and urged
“the parties to recommit fully to the cease-fire arrangements” of the September
deal. French President Emmanuel Macron on Twitter demanded “a halt to the
violence and support to the UN in backing a necessary political solution.”
OCHA said that bombardment on the Idlib region since April 28 had also killed
three health workers.To the west of the region on Tuesday, the Al-Qaeda-linked
Hurras Al-Deen militant group attacked pro-government positions, killing nine
loyalists and three militants, the Observatory said.
It remains unclear whether the Syrian government and its Russian ally are
planning to launch a full-scale assault. Aron Lund, from the US think tank The
Century Foundation, said “a limited offensive into Idlib, peeling off a few
areas, should be easily within their capabilities.” He said the recapture of two
key highways running through Idlib — the M4 and the M5 — could be among the
“many goals” behind such an operation. Under the September deal, hard-liners
were supposed to withdraw from the planned buffer zone, allowing traffic to once
again flow along the two strategic highways, which connect government-held areas
with the Turkish border. Turkey has failed, however, to secure the militants’
withdrawal, prompting government forces to take matters into their own hands,
Syria specialist Fabrice Balanche said. Taking the two highways would help Assad
boost the recovery of Syria’s nearby second city Aleppo, which remains cut off
from most of its countryside and poorly connected to the rest of the country, he
told AFP. “Restoring traffic on these two axes will reduce transport costs to
Aleppo,” he said. Retaking the road between the regime’s coastal stronghold of
Latakia and Aleppo in particular would cut the rebel-held region in two, making
it easier for government forces to recapture its southern part and isolate the
militants in the north, Balanche added.
Anger in Istanbul as protesters reject re-run of election for city’s mayor
Arab News/May 07/2019/ISTANBUL: Street protests erupted, the lira
plunged in value and Turkey’s stock market plummeted on Tuesday after election
authorities ordered a rerun of the vote for mayor of Istanbul. The Supreme
Election Council accepted a claim by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling AK
Party of “irregularities” in the March vote, when former Prime Minister Binali
Yildirim lost to Ekrem Imamoglu of the opposition Republican People’s Party
(CHP). When the June 23 repeat vote was announced the Turkish lira slid 1.5
percent past the 6.15 per dollar threshold, Istanbul’s stock market and
government bonds fell, and protesters took to the streets. “The will of the
people has been trampled on,” said centrist IYI Party leader Meral Aksener.
Senior European Parliament member Guy Verhofstadt said the “outrageous decision
highlights how Erdogan’s Turkey is drifting toward a dictatorship.”
The rerun election was a “seismic event in Turkish history,” said Soner Cagaptay,
director of the Turkish Program at the Washington Institute. “Turkey has been
holding free and fair elections since the 1950s,” he said. “Never before has a
party refused to accept the outcome of the election. Erdogan is saying, ‘Let’s
vote until the governing party wins’.”The AKP’s Yildirim might still struggle to
win the rerun after other parties threatened to unite against him. The
pro-Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party (HDP) said it would repeat its policy from
March of not contesting the election, which helped the CHP’s Imamoglu. The
Islamist Saadet (Felicity) Party and the Democratic Left Party said they may
also stand aside in favor of Imamoglu. The election council’s decision shows
that Erdogan now dominates almost all institutions in Turkey, Wolfango Piccoli,
co-president of Teneo Intelligence in London, told Arab News. “It will result in
a lose-lose situation regardless of the outcome,” he said. “It not only
intensifies Turkey’s vulnerability to market fluctuations ahead of the new vote,
but it also shows that the AKP is willing to sacrifice the economy before ceding
any power.”
Six ministers face sack in Iraq Cabinet shake-up
Arab News/May 08/2019/BAGHDAD: Six Iraqi government ministers,
including Oil Minister Thamir Ghadhban and Electricity Minister Luay Al-Khatteeb,
are expected to lose their jobs in a major reshuffle of the Cabinet in Baghdad.
The shake-up in Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi’s government is part of a turf
war between the US and Iran for power and influence in Iraq, which has hamstrung
his attempts to form a government since he was sworn into office in October
2018, five months after bitterly contested elections. “Iraq is the chessboard
that Iran and America are wrestling on. Upcoming interrogations of ministers and
dismissals are part of this wrestling,” a leading negotiator told Arab News.
“Both sides have tools in Iraq and both are trying to trim each other’s nails.”
The government in Baghdad was formed last year, after months of wrangling, in a
deal finally thrashed out between Reformation, the largest parliamentary bloc
led by the anti-Iran Shiite cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, and Al-Binna’a, the largest
pro-Iranian bloc led by Hadi Al-Amiri, head of Badr organization. Even then, the
two blocs were unable to agree on candidates for the two key security
ministerial posts of defense and interior. They are now expected to be filled as
part of the latest agreement. Tension between Washington and Tehran is rising as
the anniversary approaches of President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015
nuclear deal and the reimposition of crippling economic sanctions. Iraq is at
the center of that tension. On Monday the US announced deployment of an aircraft
carrier strike force to the Gulf in response to an “escalated threat” from Iran.
US officials did not specify the location of the threat, but are known to be
concerned about the activities of Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Against this
background, the US and its allies in Iraq believe Abdul-Mahdi has moved too
close to Tehran, and changes in the government to restore balance are the
solution, negotiators told Arab News. The ministries involved will be oil,
electricity, water resources, industry, health and communications. “Abdul-Mahdi
himself will not be toppled, no one is able to do so, but the Cabinet reshuffle
will take place soon,” a key negotiator told Arab News. “The situation is
serious and our discussions have focused on the importance of fortifying the
internal situation. “Iraqi and European mediators are trying to reach
understandings and calm the situation between Iran and America, because we
believe Iraq is in the midst of the storm and we Iraqis will pay the biggest
price as a result.”
IMF Chief Says US-China Tensions 'Threat' to World Economy
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 07/2019/The head of the International Monetary
Fund said Tuesday that fresh trade tensions between the United States and China
were the main threat to the world economy. "Clearly the tensions between the
United States and China are the threat for the world economy," Christine Lagarde
told journalists at a conference in Paris, adding that recent "rumours and
tweets" made an agreement between the countries less likely. President Donald
Trump jolted global markets on Monday by threatening on Twitter that tariffs
already imposed on $200 billion in Chinese exports to US would more than double
to 25 percent on Friday from their current level of 10 percent. Also speaking at
the Paris Forum event, French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire warned about the
impact of a trade war between the world's two biggest economies. "We are
following the current negotiations very closely between China and the United
Staters and we want them to respect the principals of transparency and
multilateralism," he said. He called on the two sides to "avoid taking decisions
that would threaten and would undermine global growth in the months ahead."
"Increasing tariffs is always a dead-end and a negative decision for the whole
world, for the United States, for China, for the eurozone, for Europe and world
growth," he said. China said Tuesday its top trade negotiator will visit the
United States for talks with his American counterparts this week. The countries
have been locked in talks to resolve tensions that have seen both of them impose
tariffs on goods worth $360 billion. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has
described the negotiations as 90 percent complete but told reporters that in
recent days the talks went "substantially backward", which he blamed on China
reneging on previous commitments.
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on May 07-08/19
Welcome to the Post-Middle East ISIS
Hassan Hassan/ Foreign Policy/May 07/2019
On Monday, the Islamic State released a video of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi holding a
meeting with three members in a traditional Arab home setting. It was Baghdadi’s
first public appearance since he declared himself a caliph from the pulpit of an
iconic 12th-century mosque in Mosul in the summer of 2014.
The message of the video, however, was not just to show that Baghdadi was still
alive; the group could have made that point without the risks involved in the
production and release of a video at a time when the coalition led by the United
States is still fully deployed in Iraq and Syria. The message, rather, was far
more ambitious. Above all, it was an announcement of the group’s wider
geographic ambitions.
Baghdadi’s appearance was in large part designed to inaugurate a new chapter in
his organization’s life, in which it moves beyond its territorial loss in Iraq
and Syria. In the video, Baghdadi bragged about new oaths of allegiance extended
to him from jihadis in Mali, Burkina Faso, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka. The video
ends with footage showing Baghdadi being briefed about various foreign
franchises, including a new one in Turkey.
The continuing loyalty of these remote affiliates to the Islamic State despite
the collapse of the caliphate in Syria is a huge win for the organization. It
shows that the Islamic State is poised to export the unique terrorism formula it
perfected in Iraq a decade ago to a broader region, ranging from India to West
Africa, as it shifts from governing as a caliphate to operating an insurgency.
As one sign of its success, the group announced its first-ever attacks in the
Democratic Republic of the Congo and claimed the bombings in Sri Lanka last
month.
This trend should not be surprising: It has been underway since 2016, when the
tactics and rhetoric of the Islamic State’s regional affiliates increasingly
resembled the central organization. In Sinai and Afghanistan, for example,
regional branches started to emphasize an ideology focused on sectarian attacks,
against Christians or Shiites, reflecting the group’s approach in Iraq since
2003. By dispatching long-standing operatives to lead or help run these
branches, the Islamic State seems to have successfully molded them in its image.
This has helped it to maintain control over these regional offshoots despite its
tumultuous collapse in Iraq and Syria.
And in doing so, it has exported the specific jihadi brand it built in
Iraq—known for its uncompromising, vicious, and sectarian strategy—even relative
to that of al Qaeda and the Taliban. In Egypt, the group carried out numerous
attacks targeting Coptic Egyptians over the past few years, and attacks against
Shiites in Afghanistan feature prominently in the group’s operations there. In
attacking Shiite civilians in Afghanistan and Yemen, Islamic State media outlets
do not even add a reasoning for the killings. Being Shiite automatically makes
one a legitimate target for the group, which is unusual even for other extremist
jihadi groups. From the Islamic State’s point of view, the strategy of
heightening brutality and sectarianism was effective, allowing it to rise from
its original defeat in Iraq in 2008. In Iraq, the group pit communities against
each other, targeted places of worship, deterred locals from cooperating with
the government, and hunted local rivals who could pose a threat to it in the
future. By the time it captured one-third of Iraq in 2014, it had established
itself as the only viable force capable of controlling the areas and fighting
the government, almost uncontested on a local level.
In his remarks, Baghdadi refers to his group’s strategy for survival as a “war
of attrition,” which also echoes the group’s propaganda since it started losing
major strongholds three years ago. To understand where the Islamic State is
heading next, it is important to pay a closer look to the long-game strategy
that marked its original rise, not just the methods that came to be associated
with the Islamic State in recent years, such as control of territory.
The Islamic State’s history of rising from the ashes in Iraq after 2008 shapes
the organization’s thinking more than anything else, evident in the frequent
references to that experience in its publications and statements for the past
three years.
The situation for the group today resembles that earlier period, only on a
broader geographic scale—which is why it is trying to replicate the same
blueprint, which enabled it to eradicate its rivals, entrench itself locally,
and ultimately present itself as the last flag for those fighting a central
government. In Iraq and Syria since 2016, the group reverted to old tactics of
assassinating community leaders, buying locality, and planting sleeper cells to
conduct underground operations not just to fight its enemies but also to empty
the areas in which it operates of any potential rivals. These tactics were
detailed in a plan published in online jihadi forums in December 2009.
The spread of global jihad under the Islamic State banner will likely prove both
an opportunity and a burden for its affiliates, as it will distinguish them from
other violent rivals but also alienate local communities. Nevertheless, the
Islamic State’s plan to entrench itself locally throughout the broader region is
arguably the most serious threat posed by the group today. The fact that its
model evidently worked after the group’s defeat in 2008 makes it easier for the
Islamic State to maintain the loyalty of many of its members and support
networks and to persuade new recruits further afield to subscribe to its
ideology.
Ultimately, Baghdadi’s video marks the failure of the U.S.-led coalition to
capture Baghdadi and dismantle his organization. It demonstrates the health of
both Baghdadi and his organization—refuting recent rumors that he was ailing—and
allows them to boast about a major terrorist attack, their expansion to new
places, and the recruitment of new members. In this sense, the Islamic State is
once again a step ahead of the U.S.-led coalition. Policymakers must recognize
this nebulous aspect of the group’s growth if they are to prevent it from rising
again.
The organization has transitioned safely from controlling territory to its next
phase of operation without fracture, and its ability to entrench itself locally
throughout the region, as it did in Iraq after 2008, could lay the groundwork
for another 2014 moment, except on a larger scale than just Iraq and Syria.
Kushner's Middle East Mission Impossible
Aaron David Miller/The Hill/May 07/2019
The first time I met Jared Kushner, I told him that I wish my father-in-law had
as much confidence in me as his had in him because he had given him a mission
impossible. He laughed and acknowledged that it was hard, but his father in-law
saw Israeli-Palestinian peace as a critical issue, and now was the time to
tackle it. In subsequent meetings I made clear that if he succeeded and came out
with a plan that was deemed fair and serious, I’d be the first to break open the
champagne. But that’s a big "if." As we await the much-delayed but now almost
certain-to-be-launched June peace plan, it’s worth trying to separate fact from
fantasy and lay out some harsh realities about the Trump administration’s
still-opaque approach to Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking that is almost certain
to doom its success. But this may not matter. The administration’s more
important goal is to reframe U.S. policy and permanently kill an already fraught
two-state solution.
Ignoring the past
In an interview Thursday night discussing his peace plan, Jared Kushner
volunteered that given the differences between Israel and Palestine on the issue
of statehood, “let’s just not say it." It's the clearest indication yet that a
Palestinian state won’t be formally addressed in his forthcoming plan.
That was a consistent theme in our conversations about a two-state solution: “If
that would’ve worked, we would’ve have made peace a long time ago," he told me.
The two-state solution was in deep trouble long before Trump came along. But if
Kushner wants to end the conflict, he cannot simply will the past away. He has
to find an alternative approach to overcome two mission impossibles: Convince
Palestinians and Arab states to participate in a process that departs
fundamentally from their longstanding and deeply entrenched narrative of an
independent state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
End the Israeli occupation in a way that separates Palestinians from Israelis
and gives the former control over the vast majority of the West Bank where 2.6
million Palestinians reside. The two-state solution may be near death; but
killing it — as the Trump administration wants to do — without a credible
alternative — and one does not come to mind — won’t end the conflict.
Misreading the present
To the administration’s credit, it has helped to cultivate two new realities
that if managed adroitly in the hands of a skillful mediator, might have been
used to advance a serious peace process: It has sought to build on the emerging
anti-Iranian alignment between the Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, and
Israel and to enlist the Arab states in the peace process; and it has gained
Israel’s confidence.
But on the first point, it has overestimated how willing the Saudis would be to
pressure Palestinians and reach out to Israel without serious concessions to the
Palestinians from both Israel and the U.S. Saudi King Salman has been consistent
in supporting Palestinian statehood with a capital in Jerusalem as the "sine qua
non" for Arab state support. On the second point, it has so overplayed its hand
by showering the Israelis with goodies — recognizing Jerusalem as its capital,
opening the U.S. Embassy there and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over Golan —
that it’s compromised its role as an effective peace broker.
Gaining Israel’s confidence in this way would be a smart tactical move if the
Kushner plan should ask Israel to make some very hard decisions. Then nobody
could say that the Trump administration didn’t have Israel’s back and hadn’t
gone to great lengths to protect it even as it asks for major concessions. But
that remains to be seen.
Stacking the deck
Gaining the confidence of one party in a negotiation is fine as long as an
effort is made to maintain the confidence of the other. Instead, the Trump
administration has willfully pursued a policy of alienating Palestinians and
marginalizing their role.
The administration has: eliminated the Jerusalem consulate as the Palestine
Authority's (PA’s) main interlocutor; cut U.S. assistance to the PA;
closed the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) office in Washington;
withdrew the U.S. support for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency — the principal
source of funding for Palestinian refugees; and trivialized the Palestinian
stake in Jerusalem while they delegitimized their claim to statehood. The
motivation for these actions seemed to be to administer reality therapy to the
Palestinians and to remind them as the weakest party that they have a great deal
to lose by not cooperating with Washington. But it’s a strategy that’s doomed to
fail.
There is no ultimate deal
The sad and painful reality is that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process was on
life support well before the Trump administration got to it. And despite the
president’s aspirational goal of an ultimate deal to end the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict, there is not a shred of empirical evidence to suggest it’s possible.
Neither Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor Palestine President
Mahmoud Abbas is willing or able to make decisions on the core issues — borders,
security, Jerusalem and refugees — necessary to even get close enough so that a
skillful mediator can bridge the gaps.
The mistrust and suspicion between Israel and the PA, splits between Hamas and
Fatah, the certainty of a new right-wing Israeli government and the bias of the
Trump administration all but guarantee deadlock or worse.
The real agenda
So, if getting to negotiations, let alone a deal is unlikely, why push for a
comprehensive peace plan? Instead, the real objective on the part of the Kushner
team is to find a new approach that fundamentally transforms the traditional
concept of two states and makes it almost impossible for a successor to return
to something like it, especially if the Trump administration lasts until 2024.
The administration has devalued the idea of two states, tilted heavily toward
the Israelis on Jerusalem and acquiesced to a significant increase in settlement
activity under Netanyahu. When asked in a congressional hearing for his reaction
to Netanyahu’s promise to annex parts of West Bank and settlements,
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said nothing. Should this occur, the Trump
administration’s legacy may not be that it killed the two-state solution; but it
most certainly helped bury it.
Support for Israel in the US starting to shift
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/May 08/2019
In the US, a tectonic shift of support for Israel, away from liberals and
Democrats toward Republicans and evangelicals, is currently taking place. In the
short term, this might not worry Israel, as it has no immediate or threatening
impact on relations between Washington and Tel Aviv. However, in the longer
term, the nature of this shift contains the seeds of eradicating the moral,
values-based and even sentimental commonalities in favor of passing short-term
interests and an over-reliance on a dangerously distorted view held by
Christian-evangelist Zionists, who support the Jewish state solely in the hope
of fulfilling a biblical prophecy on how a “second coming” of Christ will be
brought about.
There is a sense of complacency among Israel’s decision-makers, especially Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his close circle, that Washington under the
Donald Trump-Mike Pence stewardship has completely subscribed to their
worldview. This, however, captures a particular moment in history and merely
reflects a mishmash of nationalism, populism and messianism entwined with power
politics. It is epitomized by a tendency to favor an ethnocentric,
confrontational approach toward rivals and foes, and fewer attempts to
understand their position and aim for workable compromises. However, last year’s
mid-term congressional elections have already shown that the American public is
fed up with, or at least skeptical about, this approach.
In this light, the findings of a Pew Research Center surveylast month, showing
that a majority of Americans have a favorable view of the Israeli people but a
very unfavorable view of their present government, should be taken as a warning
sign to the Israeli administration. More specifically, the survey reveals a
striking division between Republicans and Democrats in the way they view Israel
and Palestine. It found that, while 61 percent of Republicans have a favorable
view of Israel’s government, only 26 percent of Democrats view it favorably,
against two-thirds with an unfavorable view.
Is this something Israel and its supporters should worry about? After all, it is
supported by those who voted for the incumbent president, who might occupy the
White House until 2024 — which might be perceived as an eternity in Israeli and
Middle Eastern politics. Taking this approach to the decline in the Democrats’
support for Israel would be a gross misjudgment of the nature of relations
between the two countries. The truth is that it should set alarm bells ringing
in Tel Aviv. Reflecting on the roots of the deep and comprehensive support that
the US has given to Israel, even when it was far from agreeing with it and
against its better judgment, it is clear that the role of the Democrats has been
crucial and invaluable.
In the years leading to Israel’s independence and in its immediate aftermath,
there were Democratic presidents who supported the idea of a Jewish state,
against the realpolitik-inclined advice of those, many of them Republicans, who
saw it as endangering US interests in the region. On the day that Israel
declared its independence, the US government under President Harry Truman, a
Democrat, was the first to recognize the new state, with Truman declaring his
wholehearted support.
While 61 percent of Republicans have a favorable view of Israel’s government,
only 26 percent of Democrats view it favorably.
In the 1960s, it was another Democratic president, John F. Kennedy, who was the
first to supply Israel with weapons, which opened the gates to one of the
closest alliances, albeit informal, between the US and another country. The
basis of this alliance and Washington’s provision of military, economic and
diplomatic support was a mix of ideology, a sense of moral obligation and guilt
in the aftermath of the Holocaust, and a response to domestic political
pressures. In the post-1967 era, Israel’s military might turned it into a
reliable and stable ally in a region of great strategic and economic importance,
albeit with pockets of instability and elements that were unfriendly to the US.
As time goes by, the moral obligation and sense of guilt over failing to stop
the genocide of the Jews by Nazi Germany and not opening the gates to Jews
escaping the European hell is fading away, especially as Israel is now behaving
immorally. A powerful source of support for Israel used to be its democratic
character. But, in recent times, it has become at best a struggling democracy
that occupies, blockades and oppresses nearly 5 million Palestinians in the West
Bank and Gaza Strip, depriving them of their right to self-determination while
building exclusively Jewish settlements in contravention of international law.
Add to this the recent nation-state law, which enshrines the discrimination
against Palestinians within Israel proper and makes them second-class citizens,
and we begin to see more clearly why more liberal-minded Americans are finding
it increasingly difficult to see Israel in a favorable light. The Democratic
Party has always been considered a home for minorities and those less privileged
in society — a defender of civil and human rights. Not surprisingly then, its
supporters are shifting their sympathies toward the Palestinian people, even
though, as the Pew survey shows, such sympathy does not extend to the
Palestinian Authority and its leaders.
For now, those who expressed their reservations about the Israeli government
still support the Israeli people. But for how long will they continue to
differentiate between the two, before they send a message to Israel’s electorate
that they also must be held accountable for the behavior of the very
representatives they elect? It is also the case that the changing political
scene and shifting demographics in the US are beginning to introduce politicians
who are ready to publicly criticize Israel without fear of retribution.
Ultimately, the reason for the Democrats’ current skeptical view of Israel lies
with the body blows that Netanyahu and his political partners are daily dealing
to its democratic structures and to the prospect of peace with the Palestinians.
This is a trend that is threatening the alliance between the two countries — a
risk that Israel would be foolish not to avert.
**Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University
London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences
Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House.
Twitter: @YMekelberg
Can Trump get Iranian leaders to the negotiating table?
Camelia Entekhabifard/Arab News/May 08/2019
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif was in New York late last month
and he made an offer to the US government with a proposal to talk about prisoner
exchanges or hostage releases
An answer to his approach came on May 4 — the date US President Donald Trump’s
administration had to announce whether it would extend a waiver on exemptions to
the Iran nuclear deal sanctions. The White House said it would extend the
waivers that allow the countries signed up to the deal (Russia, China, France,
the UK and Germany) to participate in civil nuclear projects with Tehran, but it
is tightening the terms in an effort to increase pressure on the Iranian regime.
The waiver timetable had been agreed during the presidency of Barack Obama, with
the US having to examine the facts of whether or not Iran had stayed committed
to its obligations regarding its nuclear program every six months. Now, however,
Trump has made changes to the terms of this agreement, reducing the waivers’
validity from 180 days to 90. In addition, State Department spokesperson Morgan
Ortagus said in a statement that “assistance to expand Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear
Power Plant beyond the existing reactor unit could be sanctionable.”
Trump withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal last year and has since
promised to increase the sanctions pressure on Tehran by all means. He wants to
make the rulers accept his invitation for talks with his administration on many
issues and subjects, including Iran’s nuclear program.
This year, the Iranian currency has lost value rapidly and inflation has
increased. The price of goods is skyrocketing, meaning middle-class families can
hardly meet their household expenses, let alone the poor and needy, who have
been driven to extreme poverty.
Following the economic sanctions, Trump did not extend the oil importing
exemptions for eight countries on May 1, as he bids to makes the regime’s
revenue from oil fall to zero. According to exports, it will be very hard or
even impossible for oil sales to be reduced to zero, but the sanctions will have
a big impact on the Tehran government’s annual budget.
Trump’s sanctions did not end there, as he also designated Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. Iran’s
national army has, since the 1979 revolution, been undermined by the Islamist
regime because of its loyalty to the previous regime and the people of the
nation, rather than the supreme leader. Instead, the IRGC has been trusted as
the regime’s armed forces for the last 40 years. It has thus enjoyed the
privilege to act as it sees fit and whenever needed by the system. Its roles
include disciplining the public and crushing demonstrations, arresting and
interrogating opposition members, operating abroad to assist Shiite militias,
and, of course, guarding the revolution.
No one in the region, or in Iran or the US, wants this to develop into conflict,
as everyone understands the consequences of such a move, but it seems all these
sanctions come from a plan Trump has to finally make the ayatollahs sit down and
talk. However, millions of Iranians are squeezed between the two sides and they
are losing their hope of a positive outcome.
It seems that Trump wants to assure Tehran’s leaders they cannot wait until
after the 2020 US presidential election to make up their mind.
It seems that Trump wants to assure Tehran’s leaders they cannot wait until
after the 2020 US presidential election to make up their mind. The US president
is eager to sort the issue out with the ayatollahs one way or the other.
When Trump began his presidential term, he wanted to show the American public
that he can achieve everything he promised them. One such promise was tackling
Iran’s disturbing behavior in the region and making a new deal with Tehran.
Now it is up to the Iranian regime, as Trump looks sincere and ready to stand by
his actions. But it will be a hard task for him to get the ayatollahs to accept
talks after they have shown so much resistance.
Camelia Entekhabifard is an Iranian-American journalist, political commentator
and author of “Camelia: Save Yourself By Telling the Truth” (Seven Stories
Press, 2008). Twitter: @CameliaFard