English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 02/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Lord, to whom can we go? You have the words of eternal life. We have come to believe and know that you are the Holy One of God
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 06/60-71/:”When many of his disciples heard it, they said, ‘This teaching is difficult; who can accept it?’But Jesus, being aware that his disciples were complaining about it, said to them, ‘Does this offend you? Then what if you were to see the Son of Man ascending to where he was before? It is the spirit that gives life; the flesh is useless. The words that I have spoken to you are spirit and life. But among you there are some who do not believe.’ For Jesus knew from the first who were the ones that did not believe, and who was the one that would betray him. And he said, ‘For this reason I have told you that no one can come to me unless it is granted by the Father.’Because of this many of his disciples turned back and no longer went about with him. So Jesus asked the twelve, ‘Do you also wish to go away?’Simon Peter answered him, ‘Lord, to whom can we go? You have the words of eternal life. We have come to believe and know that you are the Holy One of God.’ Jesus answered them, ‘Did I not choose you, the twelve? Yet one of you is a devil.’He was speaking of Judas son of Simon Iscariot, for he, though one of the twelve, was going to betray him.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 01-02/2020
Lebanon Reports 4 New Virus Cases
Health Minister to Radio Lebanon: What we are seeing in the street poses a risk to returning safely to normal life
Chlala: President Aoun's invitation next Wednesday falls within his keenness on deliberating during crucial junctures
Israeli Raids Hit Hizbullah Arms Depot in Syria, Says Monitor
Senior Iran diplomat condemns Germany's designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist group
U.S. Praises Germany’s Decision over Hizbullah
David Schenker: Lebanon’s IMF request a ‘necessary first step’, says senior US official/Joyce Karam/The National/May 01/2020
What took so long? Hezbollah ban in Germany was long overdue/Benjamin Weinthal/Jerusalem Post/May 01/2020
Germany is right to see Hezbollah for what it really is/The National/May 01/2020
Hezbollah terror designation shows group’s over-extension in Germany/Khaled Yacoub Oweis/The National/May 01/2020
Antisemitic al-Quds rally cancelled in Berlin following ban of Hezbollah/Benjamin Weinthal/Jerusalem Post/May 01/2020
Lebanese protest despite government's economic rescue plan
Lebanon signs request for IMF assistance/Lauren Holtmeier, Al Arabiya English/Reuters/Friday 01 May 2020
Wazni: Economic Plan Sets Ground for Negotiations with IMF
Lebanon banks reject rescue plan as government asks IMF for help
Lebanese PM Hassan Diab ‘is nothing’: PSP's Joumblatt/Al Arabiya/Friday 01 May 2020
Lebanon, Small Middle East Country in Economic Crisis
Virus Scuppers Lebanon Dream Weddings
Lebanon: When Corruption Discovers the Virtues of Justice/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al Awsat/May 01/2020
Corruption, not coronavirus, is ravaging Lebanon/Carmen Geha/The New Arab/May 01/2020
Lebanon's demonstrators defy coronavirus lockdown to protest on Labour Day
Future Bloc meeting chaired by Hariri: The Lebanese are tired of the failings of the Mandate
Berri meets with Kubis, Rampling, receives congratulatory cable from his Tunisian counterpart
Nasrallah congratulates workers on Labor Day, will address the Lebanese on political issues upcoming Monday
Demonstrations and marches fill Riad El-Solh & Martyrs’ Squares with calls for protection of workers' rights, setting a rescue plan
Bassil: Recovering stolen money is our struggle
Nestlé confirms ‘Food and Beverage Supply’ in Lebanon
Army Command: Series of violations by Israeli enemy drones
Coronavirus has caused protests in Lebanon to reignite/Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/May 01/2020
Lebanon’s new phase of uprising: Reflections on violence, clientelism, organizing/Nadim El Kak/Al Arabiya/May 01/2020
Lebanese emergency agriculture plan leaves questions unanswered/Jacob Boswall/ Al Arabiya English/Thursday 30 April 2020
Prices soar as Lebanon’s economic crisis worsens/Nicholas Frakes, Al Arabiya English/Friday 01 May 2020
Coronavirus adds to prenatal anxieties of pregnant women in Lebanon/Emily Lewis, Al Arabiya English/Friday 01 May 2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 01-02/2020
US imposes new Iran-related sanctions on Iraqi national linked to Quds Force
Iran threatens Germany for ban on Hezbollah, says will have to face consequences
Iran denies US claim it’s helping Venezuela oil sector
US Accuses Iran of Helping Venezuela Oil Sector
US to Exercise ‘All Diplomatic Options’ to Extend Iran Arms Embargo
Iran Adds Maritime Harassment, Satellite Launches to List of Regional Escalations
Iraq’s Parliament Awaits Cabinet Formation to Schedule Vote of Confidence Session
Kurdish Administration Isolates Hasakah over Virus Cases
Turkey says deployment of Russian defences delayed, but will happen
Azhar’s Grand Imam Says Islam Seeks No War
Sinai Bomb Attack Causes at Least 10 Casualties Among Egyptian Troops
Rami Makhlouf Launches Counterattack after Syrian Regime Seizes his Assets
May Brings Reopenings around the Globe as Virus Toll Climbs

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 01-02/2020
Special Report: Trump told Saudi: Cut oil supply or lose U.S. military support - sources/Timothy Gardner, Steve Holland, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Rania El Gamal/Reuters//May 01/2020
Iran Is Hauling Gold Bars Out of Venezuela’s Almost-Empty Vaults/Patricia Laya and Ben Bartenstein/Bloomberg/May 01/2020
China’s Coronavirus Disinformation Campaigns Are Integral to Its Global Information Warfare Strategy/Mathew Ha/Alice Cho/FDD/May 01/2020
COVID-19 in Qatar/Varsha Koduvayur/FDD//May 01/2020
PLO's Program of Deception and Lies/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/May 01/2020
Mullahs Threaten Trump with October Surprise/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/May 01/2020
The Pandemic is Receding and so is Populism/Akram Bunni/Asharq Al Awsat/May 01/2020
Question: "What does it mean that all things work together for good (Romans 8:28)?"/GotQuestions.org?
Assad might have run out of luck at last/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/May 01/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 01-02/2020
Lebanon Reports 4 New Virus Cases
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 01 May, 2020
Lebanon registered on Friday four new coronavirus cases, raising its total to 729. The country has reported 24 fatalities. The health ministry said recoveries have risen to 192. Lebanon had declared a state of health emergency to tackle the outbreak and imposed a lockdown and curfew to curb the outbreak.It recently extended the emergency to May 10, but is eying a return to normal by gradually easing restrictions over several weeks.

Health Minister to Radio Lebanon: What we are seeing in the street poses a risk to returning safely to normal life
NNA/Friday, 01 May, 2020 
Minister of Public Health, Hamad Hassan, considered in an interview with "Radio Lebanon" Station on Friday, that "what has been accomplished so far in the face of the Corona epidemic has yielded reassuring field results," stressing the need “to adhere to the government’s plan in the next stage and to exercise utmost caution."Hassan expressed concern that "what we are witnessing in the street endangers the safe return to normal life in all its manifestations, as fear of the second wave of the virus lies in the absence of symptoms among the infected while in contact with other citizens.” The Health Minister revealed that he did not request any increase in the budget of the health sector, expressing his intention to "reduce the hospital and medication bill, without undermining the health of the citizen.” Accordingly, he called on all heads of the boards of directors of private and government hospitals to "review and audit their hospital bills before submitting them to the Ministry of Health." On the issue of refugee camps, Hassan praised the "serious commitment of the displaced Syrians and Palestinian refugees to the preventive measures," stressing "transparency in receiving grants and aids from international institutions, away from waste expenditure."In response to a question about the mechanism of responding to crises, Minister Hassan announced that "the epidemic experience revealed our need to plan and manage resources, in light of the Central Health Council’s failure to convene for more than twenty years."Hassan cautioned against generalization in certain decisions, such as stopping employment in public administrations, since that would deprive the health sector of its strength component. The Health Minister concluded by reiterating the need to “remain committed to procedures”, noting that “the transition to the next stage takes place on the basis of a weekly assessment that will determine the path of lifting the general mobilization."

Chlala: President Aoun's invitation next Wednesday falls within his keenness on deliberating during crucial junctures
NNA/Friday, 01 May, 2020 
Lebanese Republic Presidency Media Advisor, Rafic Chlala, said in an interview with Radio “Voice of All Lebanon” today, that "the invitation extended by the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, to the heads of parliamentary blocs to meet at Baabda Palace next Wednesday, is aimed at informing them of the reform program approved by the Council of Ministers yesterday, which includes a series of measures to address the economic and financial conditions prevailing in the country." He added: “Invitations were addressed to House Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Hassan Diab, and Head of Parliamentary Blocs, namely former PM Najib Mikati, former PM Saad Hariri, Free Patriotic Movement Head, MP Gibran Bassil, Progressive Socialist Party Chief Walid Jumblatt, Marada Movement Head, MP Sleiman Franjieh, Lebanese Forces Party Chief Samir Geagea, MPs Mohamad Raad, Sami Gemayel, Hagop Pakradounian, Asaad Hardan, Talal Arslan and Faisal Karami representing the Consultative Gathering.” “It is not the first time that President Aoun invites heads of parliamentary blocs to Baabda Palace to discuss fateful junctures in political life, as the President of the Republic previously called for similar meetings to consult in national affairs, out of his keenness to continuously communicate with political leaders in everything related to the country’s future, especially since the reform plan approved by the government yesterday is considered to be one of the important and fundamental issues in the life of Lebanon, in wake of the economic crisis that we are witnessing, which requires concerted national efforts to be overcome, away from political disputes or differences in views,” Chlala went on. He added in response to a question that “the attendees will listen next Wednesday to a detailed explanation of the reform plan that was approved, which will be given by a number of concerned experts, to be followed by listening to the views of those present regarding the plan’s content."Chlala affirmed, in response to another question, that “inviting the heads of the parliamentary blocs falls within the framework of cooperation between the constitutional authorities, according to what was mentioned in the Constitution’s prelude.”

Israeli Raids Hit Hizbullah Arms Depot in Syria, Says Monitor
Associated Press/Naharnet/May 01/2020
Explosions rocked a Syrian military base housing a weapons Hizbullah warehouse Friday in the country's central Homs province, and a local official said the cause was not immediately clear. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which monitors the Syria war, said an Israeli rocket attack was suspected. It said the weapons warehouse, south of the city of Homs, is for Lebanon's Iran-backed Hizbullah group, which has backed Syria's armed forces in the nine-year civil war. The Israeli military declined to comment on the reports. But it has in the past targeted Iranian and Iranian-backed targets inside Syria, saying it won't tolerate Tehran's increasing influence along its borders. In the past month, there have been several reports of suspected Israeli strikes on targets inside Syria, the last on Monday.Friday's explosions wounded 10 civilians walking nearby, Homs health director Hassan al-Guindi told local Syrian media. Smoke columns could be seen from a distance and the sound of explosions echoed into Homs city. Gov. Talal Barazi said it wasn't clear what caused the explosions. He said the military base includes a weapons warehouse but didn't name Hizbullah. The Observatory said the base has been used by the Lebanese militant group for years. It said the explosions caused damage to the base and reported flying debris that reached outside its perimeters. Syrian state media also reported late Thursday that Israeli helicopters flying over the occupied Golan Heights fired at several unidentified targets causing material damage. Israel has acknowledged carrying out scores of strikes over the years, most aimed at alleged Iranian weapons shipments believed to be bound for Hizbullah. In recent months, Israeli officials have expressed concern that Hizbullah is trying to establish production facilities to make precision-guided missiles. In recent weeks, suspected Israeli attacks include the targeting of Iranian-backed fighters in the desert near the central Syrian town of Palmyra, and an Israeli drone attack on a SUV carrying Hizbullah members close to the border with Lebanon. Two days after the drone attack, Israel accused Hizbullah of "provocative" activity, including multiple attempts to breach the border along the Lebanese-Israeli frontier, and said it would complain to the U.N. Security Council.

Senior Iran diplomat condemns Germany's designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist group
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Friday 01 May 2020
Germany’s designation of the Iran-backed Hezbollah as a terrorist organization is a “strategic mistake,” senior Iranian diplomat Hossein Amirabdollahian said on Thursday. Germany branded Hezbollah a “Shiite terrorist organization” on Thursday, with dozens of police and special forces storming mosques and associations across the country linked to the Lebanese militant group. “Germany's move to designate Hezbollah as [a] terrorist entity is a strategic mistake,” senior foreign policy advisor to Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Hossein Amirabdollahian tweeted on Thursday. “Being [a] key element of Lebanese society, Hezbollah safeguards security and territorial integrity of Lebanon,” he added in the same tweet. Amirabdollahian, who is a former deputy foreign minister, warned that “Germany's stick to US-Zionist policy endangers its regional interests.” The Iranian foreign ministry also condemned Germany’s decision to designate Hezbollah a terror group, saying it would face consequences for its decision to give in to Israeli and US pressure. Hezbollah was established in 1982 during the Lebanese civil war and fought a 2006 war with Israel.
Iran is a major supporter of the Lebanese Shia group and its “resistance” against the Islamic republic’s arch foe Israel.

U.S. Praises Germany’s Decision over Hizbullah
Naharnet/May 01/2020
The U.S. State Department on Friday “applauded” Germany’s ban on the activities of Hizbullah on its soil, considering that obstructing its activities would diminish Iran’s influence in the region. “Obstructing the ability of this terrorist organization to plan terrorist attacks and raise funds will reduce Iran's pernicious behavior and influence," it said in a statement. It noted that "the world is increasingly distinguishing Hizbullah as a terrorist organization dedicated to advancing Iran's malign agenda, and not as a defender of Lebanon as it claims". Germany on Thursday branded Hizbullah a "Shiite terrorist organisation", with dozens of police and special forces storming mosques and associations across the country linked to the group. Hizbullah was established in 1982 during the Lebanese civil war and fought a 2006 war with Israel.

David Schenker: Lebanon’s IMF request a ‘necessary first step’, says senior US official
Joyce Karam/The National/May 01/2020
مدير مكتب شؤون الشرق الأدنى في وزارة الخارجية الأميركية، دايفيد شينكر: طلب لبنان مساعدة الصندوق الدولي خطوة أولى ولكنها لا تكفي
Lebanon is facing a financial crisis after months of political instability. EPA
US assistant secretary for Near East affairs, David Schenker, has welcomed Lebanon’s request for help from the International Monetary Fund as a good first step in a long process to ease its economic crisis.
“It is good that they asked but it is not just about asking. It is a necessary first step,” Mr Schenker told The National.
Hours earlier, Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab said his government would ask the IMF for a $10 billion (Dh3.67bn) bailout to try to halt the economic slide. The US is reviewing the plan and will be looking for major reforms.“I don’t want to prejudge what the IMF may be looking for but it has to meet a level of transparency and a full commitment to this,” Mr Schenker said. He said he expected rigorous conditions to be set by international institutions in implementing the reform plan, requiring commitment across the political spectrum in Lebanon.
Hezbollah, the Lebanese political and militant organisation, has in the past voiced reservations about requesting IMF help.“Hezbollah is not known for its support for reforms," Mr Schenker said. "This is an organisation that funds its activities through illicit finance, corruption ….
"Reform at the ports that collects revenues is not going to be appreciated by everyone in Lebanon."Controlling borders, closing illegal passages and fixing Customs procedures are some of the reforms for which the international community has been asking, and they could undermine Hezbollah’s influence.
Mr Schenker predicted a “lengthy process” for Lebanon to free itself from decades-long economic turmoil that led to the current crisis, which has sparked protests in the country for the past seven months.They turned violent this week as banks were torched in Tripoli and one protester was killed in clashes with the Lebanese army.The US has been supportive of the protesters’ calls for reform and an end to corruption.
Mr Schenker also welcomed Germany’s designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation on Thursday, saying it “erodes Hezbollah’s legitimacy in some quarters in the world and the fiction over differences between military and political wings”.
He said he hoped other European countries would follow.
On Iraq, Mr Schenker appeared cautiously optimistic about Mustafa Al Kadhimi's chances of success in forming a Cabinet, a feat at which earlier designated prime ministers have failed.“Nothing is done until it’s done but I am hopeful that Mr Kadhimi will be able to untie this Gordian knot,” he said.
Mr Schenker said Iran would continue to pose a threat to US personnel in Iraq, despite positive developments in forming a government.

What took so long? Hezbollah ban in Germany was long overdue/Germany’s government could have banned Hezbollah decades ago
Benjamin Weinthal/Jerusalem Post/May 01/2020
تأخرت ألمانيا كثيراً في وضع حزب الله على قوائم الإرهاب
BERLIN - After years of pressure from the US (both the Obama and Trump administrations) and the Israeli government, Germany’s interior minister on Thursday banned all activities of the Lebanese terrorist movement Hezbollah within the federal republic’s territory.
“That was overdue,” wrote Frank Jansen about the ban in his Tagesspiegel newspaper commentary. Jansen is one of Germany’s leading national security reporters.
erman Interior Minister Horst Seehofer declared that Hezbollah’s activities “violate criminal law and the organization opposes the concept of international understanding.”
In other words, Germany’s government could have banned Hezbollah decades ago.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s administration declined and furnished a series of bogus arguments. Germany linked a ban to the Israel-Palestinian peace process in 2018. Last year, after the UK outlawed Hezbollah, Germany's deputy foreign minister, Niels Annen, said when asked about a ban: “Hezbollah is however also a relevant factor in Lebanese society and an integral part of the country’s complex domestic-policy make-up. It has seats in Parliament and is part of the Government.”
A veteran German journalist, who has written extensively about Iranian regime-sponsored terrorism and intelligence agencies in the federal republic, told me Germany cut a deal with Hezbollah after the organization’s 1992 terrorism attack in a West Berlin restaurant.
A joint Hezbollah-Iran operation assassinated three Iranian-Kurdish leaders and their translator in the Greek restaurant Mykonos. The quid pro quo, according to the journalist, was: Hezbollah and Iran discontinued terrorism operations on German soil in exchange for permission to fundraise, build structures, recruit new members, and spread their deadly ideologies.
In contrast to the foreign policy view held by France and Germany, my Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ colleague and Lebanon expert, Tony Badran, has over the years debunked the belief that the Lebanese state is independent from Hezbollah. Writing in December in the Washington Examiner, he noted that “ The reality is that Hezbollah took over Lebanon years ago” and the Eastern Mediterranean nation is a “failed state run by a terrorist group.”
Jansen said that by proscribing Hezbollah’s activities, interior minister Horst Seehofer sent a message to the State of Israel, Jews and many non-Jewish democrats who have long sought the ban of the Shi’ite terrorist entity. He noted that Hezbollah has over the decades carried out “antisemitic agitation.”
The Jerusalem Post has written hundreds of articles on Hezbollah’s nefarious activities over the decades in Europe, including a Hezbollah member declaring last year in a Hezbollah-controlled mosque in the German city of Münster: “We belong to the party of Ruhollah [Khomeini]. We have been accused of being terrorists – we are proud of terrorism.”
In 2018, this journalist exclusively reported that the Al-Mustafa Community Center in the northern German city-state of Bremen is a major hub for raising funds for Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to a German intelligence report.
The Bremen intelligence agency’s report stated, “The Al-Mustafa-Community Center supports Hezbollah in Lebanon, especially by collecting donations.”
The financial pipeline between Bremen and Beirut means Hezbollah secures funds from German territory to wage war against Israel and Syrian civilians.
Hezbollah’s infamous 1985 manifesto demands Israel’s “obliteration from existence.” Merkel claimed during her 2008 speech in the Knesset that Israel’s security is “non-negotiable” for her government.
Hezbollah fighters have aided Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in wiping out over 600,000 people in Syria.
All of this helps to explain that Germany had a prima facie case to ban Hezbollah. The political will in Germany was non-existent. A sea change appeared with the appointment of Richard Grenell as US ambassador to Germany in 2018.
“The world is a little bit safer with this German government ban of Hezbollah. The entire US embassy in Berlin has worked with the German government and the Bundestag for two years to push for this ban. It’s an incredible diplomatic success that we hope will motivate many officials in Brussels to follow suit with an EU-wide ban,” Grenell said on Thursday.
The US congress has also flexed its muscles with a view toward seeking a change in German Hezbollah policy. In 2019, congress once again urged Germany to designate the entire organization as a terrorist entity, not only its military.
Representatives Ted Deutch, Grace Meng, Gus Bilirakus and Lee Zeldin wrote a letter to Merkel saying in part: “The alliance between our two countries, whether for combating terrorism or supporting democracy, has been a cornerstone of the transatlantic relationship and NATO alliance, and our coordinated efforts have been critical to our collective national security.”
The group of democrats and republicans added “ That is why we hope that Germany will consider this decision to, once and for all, fully designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.” The letter came after the Bundestag failed to pass a resolution that would refer to the entire organization as a terrorist group.”
Moving forward, Germany has positioned itself, along with the Netherlands and the UK, to push the European Union to include Hezbollah’s entire organization on its foreign terrorist entities. In 2013, the EU merely banned Hezbollah’s so-called “military wing” after the organization blew up an Israeli tourist bus in Bulgaria. The terrorist operation murdered five Israelis and their Muslim Bulgaria bus driver. Hezbollah defines itself as a unitary organization without political and military wings. Holland outlawed Hezbollah in 2004.
Germany has still not internalized via counterterrorism methods that Hezbollah is an extension of Iran’s clerical regime.
In 2018 Nathan Sales, the Coordinator for Counterterrorism within the US Department of State, spoke at the Washington Institute’s Counterterrorism Lecture Series. Sales said “Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. Period. It has held that dubious distinction for many years now and shows no sign of relinquishing the title.” He noted that at the time that “Iran provides Hezbollah alone some $700 million a year.”
Germany has not taken the anti-terrorism plunge and joined US economic sanctions against Tehran. Merkel has also refused to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization.
Economic interests are one of the factors in Germany’s opposition to US sanctions along with its view that the Iran nuclear deal is functioning, despite overwhelming evidence that Tehran has violated the terms of the atomic accord. Germany is Iran's most important European trade partner.
Merkel continues to permit US sanctioned Iranian banks ( Bank Melli Bank Sepah European Iranian Handelsbank, to operate within German territory.
Iran’s financial system is riddled with terror finance and support for its illegal nuclear and missile programs.One could argue that the pressing question for the counterterrorism community is, when will Germany finally confront Hezbollah’s paymaster, the Islamic Republic of Iran? Critics of Germany's anti-terrorism strategy believe it is long overdue.
Benjamin Weinthal is a fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Germany is right to see Hezbollah for what it really is
The National/May 01/2020
More countries need to recognise that the Iranian-backed group is indeed a terror outfit with a political front
On Thursday, Germany joined the US, UK and a number of other countries, including members of the Arab League, in designating Hezbollah a terrorist entity. This decision means banning all activities carried out by the group on German soil. The Interior Ministry in Berlin also confirmed that police had conducted early morning raids to detain suspected Hezbollah operatives.
Germany’s decision is a welcome one. It comes five months after the Bundestag – Germany’s legislature – approved a motion calling on the country’s authorities to put a stop to Hezbollah’s local activities. It also represents a significant step within the international community towards curbing the influence of a rogue operator that has for years window-dressed itself as a responsible political actor in Lebanon. In reality, Hezbollah has been little else but an armed proxy for Tehran’s wider geopolitical interests, holding Lebanese politics – and the Lebanese state – hostage. It has also succeeded in spreading its tentacles across the Middle East and elsewhere in the world, including within the European Union and even Latin America.
These new developments then amount to yet another setback for Iran, which is already saddled with an economy battered by US-led sanctions in response to its illegal nuclear and ballistic programmes, as well as its military adventurism in the region. The regime has often relied upon on the EU to act as an interlocutor between itself and Washington in its bid to get sanctions relief. Now, the largest EU member state has sent an extraordinary signal that there is a limit to European patience with Iran’s broader extremist agenda.
Perhaps the most immediate hit to Hezbollah will be financial. Already set to lose 40 per cent of its income from Iran after the dramatic fall in oil prices as a result of coronavirus, Hezbollah's ability to raise funds from its activities in Europe, including its running of fake orphanages, will be significantly hampered.
There is also a renewed spotlight on Hezbollah’s decades-long cloak-and-dagger operations, which include terror plots across the Middle East and the world, and a range of illegal activities from money-laundering to drug-smuggling. It has become an integral part of a global nexus between rogue states and organised crime. In Venezuela, for instance, Hezbollah has been linked to Caracas’s newly appointed oil minister, Tareck El Aissami, a man accused of a host of illicit activities by the US State Department.
Worryingly, despite its transgressions, Hezbollah has been able to use its status as the dominant political party within the Lebanese parliament to garner some political legitimacy abroad. Its status in Beirut, where it is a significant backer of the government of Prime Minister Hassan Diab, gives it the look of one among many parties operating within the confines of a national political system. But Hezbollah runs its own militias, who not only enforce its power in certain parts of Lebanon, but also conduct independent operations in neighbouring Syria, where they support President Bashar Al Assad, and further afield in Iraq. These units often answer directly to senior commanders of the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Berlin had previously made a distinction between Hezbollah’s political arm and its military units. But the two are by no means cleanly separated, and the sooner more countries recognise this, the better the outcome will be for the victims of Hezbollah’s activities. It would also present a victory for proponents of the rule of law; states should have a monopoly on the use of force, not individual political parties. If this is well understood now in Berlin, perhaps someday it will be understood just as well in Beirut.

Hezbollah terror designation shows group’s over-extension in Germany
Khaled Yacoub Oweis/The National/May 01/2020
عملية وضع ألماني حزب الله على قوائم الإرهاب تبن مدى توسعه وتوغله فيها
Internal security considerations and external pressure prompted move in Berlin against Iran-backed organisation
At the end of every Ramadan, Hezbollah followers in yellow bandanas wave flags and march through the heart of West Berlin to commemorate a call by former Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Rohollah Khomeini to restore Palestinian rights in Jerusalem.
Giant loudspeakers on Kurfurstendamm, next to a statue of Konrad Adenauer, father of Germany’s post-war democracy, blare songs in Arabic laced with anti-Semitism and calls to destroy Israel.
Ku’damm, as the thoroughfare is fondly called, was a centre of the 1920s and of German Jewish business families who perished among the six million Jews in the holocaust.
When the next Al Quds Day comes in a fortnight, the same Hezbollah followers might think twice about turning up to this act of provocation, in fear of breaking new laws pushed through by the country’s interior minister.
Germany designated the whole of Hezbollah a terrorist organisation on Thursday, ending a distinction between the group’s armed wing and the rest of the organisation
Berlin became the second European government to break away from EU policy of distinguishing between Hezbollah’s militiamen and its political wing.
Police raided buildings and made arrests across Germany on Thursday, in a campaign against 1,050 Hezbollah operatives who the Interior Ministry said were in the country.
On a visit to Berlin last year, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Washington hoped Germany would follow Britain in banning Hezbollah, joining Saudi Arabia in urging action.
Britain introduced legislation in February 2019 that classified all of Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation.
France, which has been leading with Germany a European drive to accommodate Iran, has only a partial ban on Hezbollah.
But German officials in Berlin told The National that the German move was mainly prompted by the Interior Minister, Horst Seehofer.
“Seehofer acted but the German security services have not been blind to the presence of Hezbollah,” one official said.
Mr Seehofer, a right-of-centre politician from Bavaria and ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel, has sought since his appointment in 2018 to counter what he calls a soft German line on terrorism.
His decision went against many in the German establishment and Berlin’s influential think tanks, who have been advocating open channels with Hezbollah.
These players have been arguing that Hezbollah’s presence in the Lebanese government and legislature gives it legitimacy and as such the group’s status in Germany should not be touched.
Mr Seehofer had purely domestic political and security considerations in mind, the sources said, including electoral gains by the extreme right in recent years.
Mr Seehofer has dealt a blow to Iran through the legislation.
Tehran relies primarily on Hezbollah and the rest of its militia allies in the Middle East in its foreign policy.
But Hezbollah’s presence in Europe’s largest economy is important for logistical purposes and to keep connection with, and funding from, sympathisers living away from home.
Many of the group’s members and followers in Germany are refugees who fled in the 1980s during the Lebanese civil war, and their descendants.
Official sources said Hezbollah had done itself no favours in Germany through the increased activities of charities associated with the group in the past five years, along with its higher profile on the streets and among Muslim communities.
They said Hezbollah’s operatives were careful to appear law-abiding and none appear to have been linked to any recent violence in Germany or assassinations and attacks in Europe against Iranian dissidents since 2017.
But not far from Ku’damm, a plaque on Pragerstrasse commemorates three non-violent Iranian-Kurdish dissidents assassinated in 1992 in Operation Mykonos, named after the site of the restaurant where they were gunned down with their interpreter.
The assassins, an Iranian intelligence agent and a Lebanese Hezbollah operative, were released under murky circumstances from a German jail in 2007 and sent to Iran.

Antisemitic al-Quds rally cancelled in Berlin following ban of Hezbollah
Benjamin Weinthal/Jerusalem Post/May 01/2020
ألمانيا تغلي رخصة الإحتفال بيوم القدس عقب وضعها حزب الله على قوائم الإرهاب
Berlin's Mayor Michael Müller has faced intense criticism over the years for not seeking to ban the al-Quds march.
BERLIN — The organizer of the annual anti-Israel al-Quds Day rally, which is attended by Hezbollah operatives, pulled the plug on its mid-May event in the heart of Berlin after the German government banned all Hezbollah activities within the territory of the federal republic.The office of the Berlin Senator of the Interior, Andreas Geisel, tweeted on Thursday: "The organizer of the al-Quds march canceled today the demonstration for this year. Interior Senator Andreas Geisel: We are all spared one of the most disgusting antisemitic events. Good news for Berlin."Berlin’s city-state has permitted the Iranian regime-sponsored demonstration to proceed each year since 1996. The current Berlin government and its social democratic party mayor Michael Müller have faced criticism over the years for not seeking to legally ban the al-Quds march. Müller's administration said it would lose a legal battle to outlaw al-Quds.Al-Quds Day calls for the obliteration of the Jewish state and is attended by neo-Nazis, Hezbollah members and supporters, left-wing activists for the Palestinian terrorist organization the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) activists are also present at the protest. The al-Quds Day rally was called into global action in 1979 by the late Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In 2019, roughly 1,000 demonstrators participated in the al-Quds march along Berlin’s main shopping district. They screamed “child murder” to describe Israel.The German Interior Ministry on Thursday said it considers Hezbollah a "Shiite terrorist organization".Interior Minister Horst Seehofer told Germany's Bild daily: "Hezbollah is a terrorist organization deemed responsible for numerous attacks and kidnappings worldwide."Seehofer’s spokesman said Germany "has banned the operation of the group" within German territory. According to German intelligence reports reviewed by The Jerusalem Post, there are 1,050 Hezbollah members in Germany. Berlin’s domestic intelligence agency said there are 250 Hezbollah operatives in the capital city.

Lebanese protest despite government's economic rescue plan
The Associated Press, Beirut/Friday 01 May 2020
Hundreds of Lebanese rallied Friday outside the central bank in Beirut and in elsewhere in the country, a day after the prime minister said he will seek a rescue program from the International Monetary Fund to deal with a spiraling economic and financial crisis. The protesters decried the authorities for their handling of the unprecedented crisis that saw the local currency crash, devastate their savings and send prices and inflation soaring. Scuffles broke out outside a private bank and troops were seen beating and pulling away at least one protester. The government “is not even providing the most basic needs," said a protester in Beirut, Ahmad Demashqia. There were also rallies in northern and southern Lebanon to commemorated May Day, the international Labor Day. Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab, who on Friday signed the official request for assistance from IMF, said the government has taken “the first step on the path to saving Lebanon from the deep financial pit" On Thursday, the Cabinet adopted a long-awaited rescue plan. But the protesters seemed skeptical. In the southern city of Sidon, 19-year-old Omar al-Mughrabi said the country needs radical change — not reform of failing or ineffective policies. “Going to the IMF is not the solution," al-Mughrab said “We don't need any more debts than we already have.” Lebanon, one of the most indebted nations in the world, defaulted for the first time in March on its sovereign debt. Anti-government protests that erupted in October subsided during a nationwide lockdown since mid-March to blunt the spread of the coronavirus. Lebanon, a country of 5 million people, has reported only 729 cases and 24 deaths, and began to ease some virus restrictions this week. Many, but not all, of the protesters wore face masks against the virus. But the lockdown also worsened the recession's sharp bite, increasing unemployment and popular resentment. In recent days, protesters ignored social distancing measures and calls to stay home to rally outside the central bank and private banks, setting off clashes with the security forces and the army. In the northern city of Tripoli, a protester was killed earlier this week. Prices of basic goods have increased, in some cases by over 60 percent. The Lebanese pound, pegged to the dollar for 30 years, lost nearly 60 percent of its value. With a stable national currency, the Lebanese had used their pound and the dollar interchangeably, many keeping their savings in dollars. To deal with a liquidity crunch and a massive imports bill, the central bank decreed that most withdrawals could only be in the local currency. The decision further weakened the pound, sending it plunging on the black market to nearly three times the official rate.

Lebanon signs request for IMF assistance
Lauren Holtmeier, Al Arabiya English/Reuters/Friday 01 May 2020
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Hassan Diab and Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni on Friday signed a request for assistance from the International Monetary Fund, according to a statement.
“This is a historic moment in the history of Lebanon. We have taken the first step on the path of saving Lebanon from the deep financial gap; and it would be difficult to get out of it without efficient and impactful help,” the statement said.
Yesterday, Diab said that he hoped to secure $10 billion in IMF aid based on a financial reform plan approved by the government that is designed to guide Lebanon through its financial crisis. This is in addition to the more than than $11 billion dollars in soft loans and grants pledged by the international community at the CEDRE conference in April 2018, on the condition of a series of reforms, including those in the electricity sector, that successive governments have so far failed to enact. Previously, Iran-backed Hezbollah had opposed approaching the IMF for financial assistance as it feared forced compliance with conditions the IMF might attach to assistance. Hezbollah Secretary General Hasssan Nasrallah later reversed that position, saying he was not against foreign aid, under “reasonable conditions.”A former IMF economist previously told Al Arabiya English that the IMF is likely to ask Lebanon to make painful reforms, including cutting public wages and fixing the exchange rate, but the new government is unlikely to be able to implement them to fix the economy. The country currently faces a collapsing native currency and rising inflation and unemployment. The latter has been recently compounded by the coronavirus pandemic that spurred a nation-wide lockdown that left many in the lower rungs of society out of work. A fruit vendor waits for customers at his stall in front of Sidon’s sea castle during a nationwide lockdown implemented to slow the spread of coronavirus. (Finbar Anderson)
A fruit vendor waits for customers at his stall in front of Sidon’s sea castle during a nationwide lockdown implemented to slow the spread of coronavirus. (Finbar Anderson)
The plan passed yesterday envisions an exchange rate of 3,500 Lebanese lira to the dollar. The rate on the parallel market has reached 4,300 lira to $1, though the currency remains technically pegged to the dollar at 1,507 lira. The economic reform plan will need to set a clear path forward to reduce the country's $90 billion debt and make a series of reforms across multiple sectors. Cabinet ministers unanimously approved the long-awaited economic rescue plan Thursday, which aims to implement “long awaited reforms to the state administration, financial policy, the financial sector, the Central Bank and the balance of payments over a five year period,” according to Diab. “The government budget will be rebalanced through better tax collection, recovery of stolen assets, tax reform aiming at targeting segments of the population with high income to reduce inequalities, enhanced spending efficiency and better public financial management,” according to a draft dated April 28 that circulated online. A previous leaked draft version of the plan included measures to reform the country’s bloated banking sector and gradually the official exchange rate, but economists and analysts were skeptical of the plan and the government’s ability to implement necessary reform. Read more: Lebanon: Leaked plan sets way forward, but country's path could spell lost decade. Over the last week, protesters have reclaimed streets across the country, and banks have burned as demonstraters have taken out their frustration on the country's financial institutions.
For months, Lebanese have struggled to access funds in their bank accounts as the country is facing a dollar shortage that has made banks put in place a series of informal capital controls to keep dollars, needed to pay for imports, in the country. Last month, Lebanon defaulted on its Eurobond maturities totaling $31 billion, saying it would use the funds to provide the population with their most basic needs, such as wheat, fuel, and medicine. The country's sovereign debt stands at around $90 billion.In February, Lebanon appointed US investment bank Lazard as its financial adviser on debt restructuring.

Wazni: Economic Plan Sets Ground for Negotiations with IMF
Naharnet/May 01/2020
Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni described the government’s economic rescue plan approved on Thursday as “historic,” saying it paves the way for negotiations with the IMF and support from donor countries to help Lebanon’s ailing economy, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday. “The plan has credibility and opens the door to negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, as well as opens an opportunity to activate the results (loans and grants) of the CEDRE Conference and collect support from donor countries,” said Wazni in remarks to the daily. The Minister added that the plan “includes for the first time, real and transparent figures on the financial and banking reality in Lebanon.”The Lebanese government on Thursday approved a long-awaited plan to rescue the debt-saddled economy from its worst crisis in decades, following a fresh wave of angry streets protests. The "main purpose of the plan is to start negotiations with creditors abroad," Information Minister Manal Abdel Samad announced after the meeting. “The plan will set solid ground for negotiations with the IMF,” said Wazni. “It bears a positive message to the international community because it includes clear and practical steps to achieve the reforms that the French Finance Minister focused on during my phone call with him. We expect positive echoes abroad,” added the Minister. However he noted that the “government was also keen on gaining confidence from inside, that's why it consulted and discussed the plan with economic bodies, labor unions, experts and presidents of universities in order to secure the widest possible national embrace of it," he said.

Lebanon banks reject rescue plan as government asks IMF for help
Arab News/May 01/2020
BEIRUT/LONDON: An economic rescue plan that will form the basis of Lebanon’s talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was panned by banks on Friday as one that would “further destroy confidence” in the country. The comments, which could hold sway with the IMF given banks are among the largest holders of Lebanon’s debt, coincided with Beirut signing a request for assistance from the Fund on Friday in what Prime Minister Hassan Diab described as “a historic moment in the history of Lebanon.” The rescue plan, approved by Diab’s government on Thursday, sets out tens of billions of dollars in financial sector losses and tough measures to claw out of a crisis that has seen the currency crash, unemployment soar, Lebanon default on its sovereign debt and street protests. Some economists and diplomats welcomed the plan as a critical first step to recovery, but they were skeptical that ambitious reforms to cut public sector spending and overhaul the banking sector could be enacted after years of feet dragging. “This means the onset of serious negotiations with the IMF so this is very important and good news because it removes a lot of uncertainty. Having said that, the issue in Lebanon has always been one of execution,” former economy minister Nasser Saidi said of the 53-page plan.
Lebanon’s banking association said it could in “no way” endorse a plan it was not consulted on despite being “a key part of any solution.” The association called on members of parliament to reject it in part for infringing on private property rights. The plan does not require the parliament to pass it. “As laid out in the Plan, the domestic (bank) restructuring will further destroy confidence in Lebanon both domestically and internationally ... (and) is likely to deter investment in the economy thereby hindering any recovery prospects,” the association’s statement said. A central plank of the plan rests on covering financial sector losses of roughly $70 billion in part by a bank shareholder bail-in that would wipe out their capital and cash from large depositors that would be restored later. The banking association called revenue and expenditure measures “vague” and not backed by a precise timeline, and said the plan did not address inflationary pressures that could lead to hyperinflation. A source close to the banking sector said the IMF was likely to consult the banks on the rescue plan before moving forward. The source said the association was planning to present a plan of its own to the government in one to two weeks.
BANKING TAKEOVER
The government is hoping that with an IMF program in hand, foreign donors will release about $11 billion pledged at a Paris conference in 2018 which was tied to long-stalled reforms. The rescue plan, which calls for an additional $10 billion in external support over five years, also forms the backbone of talks with foreign bondholders that have yet to start after Beirut defaulted on $31 billion in Eurobonds in March. “In large part its a big PR move for the government as there was a feeling that the government was starting to lose control of the narrative. This plan shows they’re really trying to work toward something,” said Nafez Zouk, emerging markets strategist at Oxford Economics. A rapid slide in the Lebanese pound, which has lost more than half its value since October, has led to renewed violence over the past week, with a demonstrator killed in riots targeting banks that have frozen savers out of US dollar deposits. “Implementation is the hard bit, and Lebanon has consistently failed on this. Progress will only be possible with that, on the basis of greater political and public consensus,” a Western diplomat told Reuters. With measures such as recovering stolen assets abroad, the plan could take years to return funds to depositors while some economists say it places too heavy a burden on a banking sector that has helped finance decades of large state budget deficits. “This is basically a takeover of the banking sector by the state. I don’t understand how this will restore confidence,” said Nassib Ghobril, chief economist at Byblos Bank. “When you go this way, where is lending going to come from?” Ghobril asked.

Lebanese PM Hassan Diab ‘is nothing’: PSP's Joumblatt
Lauren Holtmeier, Leen Alfaisal/ Al Arabiya English/Friday 01 May 2020
Head of Lebanon’s Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) Walid Joumblatt said on Friday that current Prime Minister Hassan Diab “is nothing.”This is not the first stab Joumblatt has taken at the current government. Earlier this month, Joumblatt said on Twitter: “Mr. Diab, the seizure of the people’s money is an idea of security personnel, the Rustom bunch at the [Grand] Serail and an adviser of the country’s president, who demanded the recovery of the looted, granted and probably inherited money, because you are preparing for a financial and political coup to take over the country, along the Baath style.”
Joumblatt referred to Syria's ruling Baath party, which was notorious for its tough governance.
“Joumblatt, a harsh critic of the Syrian regime, was referring to Rustom Ghazeleh, the late former chief of the Syrian Intelligence which wielded great influence on Lebanese political leaders during the nearly three decades of Syria’s tutelage over Lebanon that ended in April 2005, two months after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri," reported Lebanon's Daily Star. The Diab government came to power after his successor Prime Minister Saad Hariri was ousted at the end of 2019 by popular protests. While protesters retreated back to their homes during a nationwide lockdown to slow the spread of coronavirus, they have recently seen a resurgence as the economy continues to collapse and the local currency loses value, spurring inflation. Asked about voting for the Lebanese Prime Minister, Joumblatt says “Hassan Diab is nothing. The strong leading couple is the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and Hezbollah. They are in the government; they are the ones who will build a new Lebanon… which will be a Syrian province or could be a Syrian-Iranian province. We reject that and we will resist that peacefully and democratically.”The Diab cabinet is said to be heavily influenced by the Iran-backed Hezbollah, and President Michel Aoun is a member of the FPM, where his son-in-law Gebran Bassil is the party’s head. Bassil served in the previous government as Minister Foreign Affairs, but was left out of the current cabinet. Historically, Syria has had significant influence in Lebanese politics and Syrian troops formally withdrew from the country in 2005. Syrian sway in Lebanon has been further subdued in recent years due to the ongoing Syrian war. But now, foreign meddling is the least of Lebanon’s problems as domestic issues mount.
The current crises were kick-started by an emerging dollar shortage – the product of poor central bank and government policies that led to a massive trade deficit. The country, reliant on dollars to pay for imports, is now tightly holding onto what dollars remain in the system.
“The Lebanese Central Bank Governor is not the problem. Riad Salameh has made a mistake, but he is not responsible, for example, for wasting $50-60 billion on electricity. The state’s political authority with its local components, especially the Free Patriotic Movement, are the ones who made him pay this huge bill, and until this moment there’s no one in the government of Hassan Diab who dares to interfere in the electricity sector.”
The state’s electricity sector runs a deficit of $1.8-2 billion annually and the country still fails to provide 24-hour electricity to its residents. Lebanon desperately needs to implement a series of reforms to attract international financial aid, and electricity is near the top of the list. A new economic reform plan passed by the government yesterday sets a path forward for Lebanon and includes a plan to seek some $10 billion in assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and intends to cash-in on more than $11 billion in soft loans promised, dependent upon reforms, at a 2018 conference in Paris. So far, the government has failed to make any reforms necessary to unlock the funds.

Lebanon, Small Middle East Country in Economic Crisis
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 01/2020
Lebanon is mired in its worst economic and financial crisis since the end of its 1975-1990 civil war, exacerbated by the eruption in October 2019 of angry popular protests. On Thursday Prime Minister Hassan Diab said the country would ask for aid from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after the government adopted an economic rescue plan. Here are some key facts about Lebanon, a small multi-confessional country wracked by years of political crisis, a weakened economy and the fallout of the Syrian conflict.
Colossal debt
For the first time in its history, Lebanon announced in March it was defaulting on its payments.According to the ratings agency Standard and Poor's (S&P), it is sagging under a debt of $92 billion, equal to nearly 170 percent of its gross domestic product, one of the highest debt ratios in the world. Measures it has adopted to deal with the spread of the novel coronavirus have brought the economy to a near halt, via the closure of shops and restaurants. Since October 2019, Lebanon has been rocked by mass protests against what is seen as a corrupt and incompetent political system. Lebanon is ranked 137th out of 180 countries on Transparency International's corruption index. The country lags in development in areas such as water supply, electricity production and waste treatment. A welcome lifeline for Lebanon came in 2018, when aid pledges worth more than $11 billion were made at a Paris conference. But the pledged money has been blocked due to a lack of promised reforms. According to official figures, 45 percent of Lebanon's population now lives below the poverty line.
Multi-confessional
The country with the cedar tree flag is one of the Middle East's smallest, with an area of about 10,000 square kilometres (3,900 square miles). Washed to the west by the Mediterranean, it shares borders with Syria and Israel. Lebanon is considered relatively liberal in a generally conservative region, but religion remains all-important. A crucible for 18 religious communities, its governance has been dictated by a power-sharing deal between the main sects. Lebanon is a parliamentary republic, with a 128-member house split between Muslims and Christians. In line with the "national pact" dating from independence in 1943, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the parliament speaker a Shiite. The country went through a civil war between 1975 and 1990 and was under Syrian guardianship from the 1990s until its troops withdrew in 2005. Its political institutions have long been paralysed by disagreement between pro and anti-Syrians. In 2013 the powerful Shiite movement Hezbollah said it was fighting alongside the troops of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, its involvement dividing the Lebanese political scene even more. Iran-backed Hezbollah is the sworn enemy of Israel, against which it fought a war in 2006.
- Syrian conflict spillover -
The Syria conflict has sporadically spilled over into Lebanon, with several attacks rocking the capital Beirut and other regions. The most visible impact of the Syrian war in Lebanon, a country of around 4.5 million people, has been the influx of an estimated 1.5 million refugees. Lebanon and international organisations have on several occasions sounded the alarm over the economic and social burden this massive inrush poses. Summer festivals  Lebanon hosts three prestigious summer arts festivals -- Baalbeck, Beiteddine and Byblos -- which are major attractions for tourists.

Virus Scuppers Lebanon Dream Weddings
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 01/2020
For months Maya and Rakan had looked forward to their dream wedding in the Vatican -- but the coronavirus pandemic forced them to settle for a tiny church ceremony in Lebanon. Spring usually marks the opening of the Lebanese wedding season. But this year the novel coronavirus has dashed plans and hit the Mediterranean country's thriving events industry hard. Maya Khadra, 26, had hoped for a magical day when she finally tied the knot with her fiancé -- not, she said, just a dozen guests in "an empty church". But on Sunday in the village of Shemlan south of Beirut, they exchanged vows before a few close family members as rain gushed down outside. "Corona(virus) changed everything, including our wedding," the green-eyed bride told AFP. "They called us from the Vatican and told us they had cancelled all weddings for nine months, so we had two choices: postpone, or get married anyway," she said. They opted for the second. "You don't know when corona(virus) will end, and postponing is a waste of time," the young journalist said. On Sunday, she wore an elegant white dress and a flower in her hair as she wed 28-year-old gym owner Rakan Ghossein.
The groom said they decided on a "shorter wedding" to keep guests safe. At the reception hall, the bride's sister fielded a stream of video calls from well-wishers unable to attend.Khadra said the hardest part was celebrating her big day without her friends."They were more excited than we were," she said, her eyes welling up.
Fireworks, drones
Lebanon has been on lockdown since mid-March to rein in the COVID-19 respiratory illness, which has infected 721 and killed 24 people in the Mediterranean country, according to official figures. The airport and restaurants have closed, and mass gatherings are forbidden. It's a serious disappointment for young couples in a country where hundreds are usually invited to celebrate. Outside the church, Rakan's father said he would have preferred a wedding with "a thousand people" for his son, but the coronavirus had dashed the hopes of both families. For the more wealthy, weddings normally include lavish buffets, DJs, fireworks, flowers, photoshoots and even buzzing drones in the sky above. Thousands of young Lebanese living abroad flock back every year to tie the knot in their homeland, especially among those living in the Gulf. Events staged by professional wedding planners can cost from $200,000 to $800,000 on average, but sometimes reach as high as $2 million. In recent years, banks have started offering special wedding loans for young couples to cope. Chanel Fayad too had been excitedly counting the days to her wedding, but she and her fiance had to postpone when the government imposed confinement measures.
"We'll just have a short ceremony," the 29-year-old school teacher told AFP by telephone. Chanel and her fiance had originally planned to have a wedding dinner with her friends and family over Easter, but they had to cancel the event after the government introduced an all-day lockdown on Sundays.
She hopes they can gather with friends when the coronavirus confinement ends, but she noted life will not return to normal for some time.
"Anybody who thinks it will get better after the end of coronavirus is wrong," she said."It's going to get a lot worse, economy-wise."
Double trouble
Lebanon is grappling with its worse economic crisis since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war, with tens of thousands losing their jobs or part of their salaries even before the advent of the pandemic. The wedding industry has long kept thousands in jobs, working in catering, the hotel sector, flower arrangement as well as decor, furniture and lighting. But Pamela Mansour Muhanna, co-owner of the Mine event planning agency, says business is looking dire. "More than 75 percent of our events have been cancelled," she said. "We're facing a twin challenge. Even if the coronavirus crisis ends, we'll then have to contend with the economic turmoil," she said. This is why she and her partner a few months ago started up a business in Saudi Arabia's capital. After the pandemic, "we'll work on strengthening our business abroad," she said. Perhaps a gradual easing of restrictions over the next few months will allow her agency to hold a few events at the end of the summer. But inside the church in Shemlan, priest Hanna Khadra says he thinks weddings should go ahead as planned. "Love is stronger than coronavirus and death," he said, smiling. "Love cannot be postponed."

Lebanon: When Corruption Discovers the Virtues of Justice
Eyad Abu Shakra//Asharq Al Awsat/May 01/2020
Among the most interesting landmarks in the life of any country, whose people delude themselves that they were living in a normal “state”, is when its government goes to war against one of its most senior civil servants. This is exactly what happened last week when the de facto rulers of Lebanon held Riad Salameh, the Governor of Lebanon’s Central Bank, responsible for the horrific financial and economic collapse.
The fact is that this collapse is but yet another advanced step in Hezbollah’s “creeping coup”, aimed at taking over Lebanon and annexing it to the “Iranian Crescent”. This is now taking place after the pro-Tehran militia had already imposed its candidate as president, and its electoral law, which would guarantee a secure parliamentary majority protected by its illegitimate weapons.
In any case, many things may change between now and next November, under the welter of COVID-19 and its repercussions. Many facts are expected to emerge, many calculations may take shape, and many priorities may impose themselves, whether here in the Middle East or the world at large.
Rarely has the world been so helpless and confused as it is before the COVID-19 threat, while the decision-makers in the world’s major powers are having difficulty in choosing between saving lives and saving the economy.
I shall not discuss Russia and China’s policies in this instance, hoping to do that later, but I will deal now with what is happening in western Europe and the US.
In Europe, all is not well, where there are no firm signs that it is past the worst, or that its countries are well prepared to contain the second wave of the pandemic next autumn. Moreover, in the midst of peoples’ worries and businesses pains, many in several countries feel that the “European Identity” itself is in doubt, especially in those countries where utra-nationalist and secessionist forces have been emboldened by the UK’s leaving of the EU. Indeed, some go further to say that among the most dangerous factor brought by the endemic to the fore is that the Euroskeptics feel that some European countries “let down” others in their time of need.
As for the US, we all know that it is in a presidential election year. This particular election year is really exceptional, not only because the country is suffering in terms of lives lost and economic difficulties, but also politically (and constitutionally) given the contradicting approaches between the federal government and many several governors. This is why the daily press briefing, held by President Donald Trump and his task crisis force, is looking more and more like political duels between the right-wing president and his enemies in the liberal media. Worse still for Trump, is that latest opinion polls show that he is trailing his Democratic presidential challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden, significantly, in certain swing states.
So, the two major western powers are not in great shape.
Given the above, Iran is quite aware of what is going on, and is working hard to exploit the situation even though it has been in a race against economic collapse for years. For decades, the Tehran regime has grown used to adjusting to hardships and running away from its internal problems by starting external adventures and exploiting regional and international contradicting interests, and temporary conflicts inside neighboring countries in order to further its ambitions.
Today, the “lobbies” financed by the regimes and some of its regional allies in the Arab world, Europe, and even in the heart of Washington DC, lament the international community’s “depriving” the Iranian people of relief and aid. Yet, those leaders, politicians and media, who are defending the Tehran regime totally ignore the fact that the real culprit, who is robbing the Iranian people of their national wealth, is the sectarian militaristic gang that is plundering Iran’s resources and siphoning them in a military machine with limitless aggressive ambitions.
It is clear that Iranian leaders are betting on a change in the White House next November. We know that their henchmen enjoy a strong presence inside the Democratic Party, compared with an almost complete Arab absence, which is politically costly.
The fact of the matter is that the Iranian leaders do not care about the suffering of their people as long as the branch of their Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) is taking over Lebanon, their militias are squandering Iraq’s resources and the United Nations ignores the aggression of the Houthi militias in Yemen, all along while maintaining beneficial economic, military and political relations with China and Russia,.
Those leaders in Tehran have forced the Iranian people to accept backwardness, illusions, and sectarian and revolutionary slogans. They have also succeeded in “domesticating” a good percentage of this wronged and abused people. Unfortunately, their “students” are perpetrating the same thing in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and even Gaza where they ruined the economy, corrupted society, destroyed coexistence, and distorted the culture and identity.
Almost all international reports speak about the bad economic situation in Iran, its long-term oil agreement with China and its continued military cooperation with Russia. However, while the commanders of the IRGC continue their boasting about its military prowess and “innovations”, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, along with his “lobbies” direct the “soft power” alternative outside Iran, using misleading diplomatic propaganda.
Yes, Iran is in a race against time. It is a race between internal collapse and favorable political changes abroad, while its leaders pursue the same strategy, which they have mastered, and for which they have no other alternatives.
Everywhere the Tehran regime have succeeded in imposing its influence, its henchman have applied the same concepts and priorities. Everywhere Tehran’s puppets have won control, they destroyed its institutions and replaced them with copies of the “Khomeinist Revolution” with all its branches and financial, military and intelligence networks. Everywhere, pro-Tehran banners have been raised, the legitimate state fell, and a “statelet” replaced it under the leadership of a local “guide” that governs in the name of Iran’s “Supreme Guide”.
Today, as the Lebanese people suffer under the severe economic and financial crisis, and are threatened by COVID-19, they know that only a handful of their “leaders” are above suspicion. Worse still, while some of them have been the main cause and mainstay of corruption, and the avowed enemies of the justice system, they are now the loudest lecturers about honesty and the leading admirers of justice.

Corruption, not coronavirus, is ravaging Lebanon
Carmen Geha/The New Arab/May 01/2020
"The army is using live bullets to separate protesters and calm the riots," is the single most repeated sentence during live coverage of this week's events in Tripoli.
The images of armed forces shooting at young angry men is what you mostly see on Lebanese evening TV. That, and Ramadan shows and series.
Earlier this week, 26-year-old Fawwaz al-Samman was killed when the army fired live bullets in the air. His funeral ushered in nationwide pockets of protest and anger aimed mainly at the banks and houses of politicians.
This was the first, but probably not the last, martyr to fall with direct orders from this government. The current Lebanese government is headed by Hassan Diab, a university professor with a 137-page CV.
The Diab government came into power in January of this year following weeks of massive protests across the country. The nation-wide revolution, which started on 17 October is a historical milestone in many ways. It was the first time that Lebanese people came together to denounce their entire post-war political class. They had had enough of carpetbagger governments sucking their money, public property, and basic rights.
Over three decades, people have lost their right to education, their health has deteriorated, and their political liberties have been stripped. Since 2015, Lebanon has had a garbage crisis, and rubbish piles up on the streets. Lebanon, with the highest rates of cancer in western Asia now has a corona government, full of smiling faces and looks of satisfaction.
The Minister of Public Health in Lebanon, Hamad Hassan ends every press conference with a smirk and a message of hope to the Lebanese people. His look of satisfaction and pride cannot be mistaken for anything else - he appears genuinely happy about this corona pandemic. If the politicians after the civil war in 1990 were described as carpetbaggers, meaning politicians who made money off people dying and going bankrupt, then these current government officials should be seen as the real virus of our time.
The ministers praise themselves in order to forget that the only way this government got a vote of confidence, was by deploying the army and beating up protesters who tried to block the road to parliament. The army dragged mothers and school kids who tried to block one of the entrances, beat up protesters from another entrance, and closed down main roads with barbed wire. It was a circus of security officials protecting the very same group of people who failed to pick up the trash and who stole public funds.
At the outbreak of the coronavirus in Lebanon, everyone held their breath and waited. Those first couple of weeks felt like we were waiting for the shadow of death, not knowing who would get sick and die first, and who would be spared.
The government called for public places to shut down and for people to stay at home after the World Health Organization declared a pandemic on 11 March. Staying at home was the only choice available to those of us living in Lebanon.
Whether rich or poor, young or old, man or woman, nobody in Lebanon trusts the government and nobody would dream of trusting the health system. Staying at home came quite naturally to those who could afford it, we all experienced the civil war, we are used to stocking up on canned food and detergents.
Those who could not afford it were doomed. Now eight weeks into the virus, the government is still "studying" its options and "mapping" poor families to distribute a small amount of cash to them. It is the most insulting study and mapping ever to be promised and faked in this small country where anyone can easily show you where the poor reside.
To everyone's surprise, the Lebanese were able to momentarily flatten and even decrease the curve. Days went by with no new reported cases. The prime minister and minister of health congratulated themselves.
But make no mistake, it is despite their corruption and incompetence that we are able to do well in crisis, and not because of it. This government is backed by the same powers that the revolution confronted. Its corona-inspired "popularity" will remain short-lived.
We are, after all, a very superstitious nation. We rarely use the word "cancer" and when someone has cancer, we just say that they are suffering from "that illness". But with time, and when the extent of the damage becomes clear, this government will be remembered as a cancer.
Now that it has entered a losing battle, no matter what they say, Lebanese public opinion knows that the real troublemakers are not young people living below the poverty line, but the rich, fat politicians, and smiling ministers that got us here.
Carmen Geha is a political activist and an Assistant Professor of Public Administration at the American University of Beirut. She specializes in research on social movements and protests, women in politics and refugee policies.
Follow her on Twitter: @CarmenGeha

Lebanon's demonstrators defy coronavirus lockdown to protest on Labour Day
The New Arab/May 01/2020
The beginning of the month of May has brought Lebanon's protestors out on the streets to mark International Labour Day in defiance of a coronavirus lockdown. Protestors took to the streets on Friday in different areas of the country, the Lebanese Daily Star newspaper reported.
Reports on social media showed demonstrators heading to downtown Beirut, the focal point of Lebanon's ongoing protests which began in October, to protest the economic situation in the country. Photos published on social media from Kafr Roummane, a city in southern Lebanon, also showed protestors out on the streets for Labour Day. In the central city of Aley, the leftist movement Li Haqqi led protests.
The annual Labour Day often sees protests around the world but this year's are expected to be calmer given the ongoing global health crisis. Friday's protests in Lebanon began peacefully, the Daily Star reported, in contrast to recent daily clashes that have taken place between protesters and the army across the country. Meanwhile, the Lebanese government on Thursday approved a long-awaited plan to rescue the debt-saddled economy from its worst crisis in decades. A lockdown to fight the coronavirus pandemic has added to the economic woes besetting the country, which include soaring inflation, a liquidity crunch and a plummeting currency. Demonstrators in northern Lebanon have attacked banks and clashed with security forces for three consecutive nights, re-energising a protest movement launched in October against a political class that activists deem inept and corrupt.
The government unanimously approved the economic plan after minor amendments, the presidency said on Twitter following a cabinet meeting in the presidential palace in Baabda. Leaks on the economic plan to Lebanese media suggest the country needs $80 billion in funds to exit the crisis, including $10 to $15 billion in external financing in the next five years. Planned reforms reportedly include cuts to state spending and a restructuring of the public debt, one of the highest in the world at 170 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).International donors have said that such reforms are necessary for Lebanon to unlock financial assistance, including $11 billion in grants and loans pledged during a 2018 conference in Paris.
Financial collapse
Lebanon is grappling with its worst economic turmoil since the 1975-1990 civil war, compounded by measures to tackle a novel coronavirus outbreak that has infected 721 people and killed 24. The Mediterranean nation has been rocked by a series of political crises in recent years. An economic crunch helped set off unprecedented cross-sectarian mass protests in October and unseated the last government. The demonstrations had largely petered out after a new cabinet was tasked earlier this year with implementing urgent reforms to unlock billions in international aid. But protesters have hit the streets again in recent days in defiance of the lockdown, railing against the slump in the pound and rocketing inflation. Prices have risen by 55 percent, while 45 percent of the population now lives below the poverty line, according to official estimates. The government has yet to request financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund, which has so far only provided technical assistance. Experts have lobbied in favour of an IMF bailout which they say is the country's only escape route from its current slump, but some officials remain wary of the world body.The government in March defaulted on its sovereign debt for the first time because of dwindling foreign currency reserves.

Future Bloc meeting chaired by Hariri: The Lebanese are tired of the failings of the Mandate
NNA/May 01/2020
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri chaired this afternoon at the Center House an electronic meeting of the Future Parliamentary Bloc.At the end of the meeting, the following statement was issued:
“Now that the Mandate’s government has approved its economic plan, it has to stop repeating the reprehensible "thirty years" hymn, and start bearing the responsibility of implementing the solutions it proposes for the economic-financial crisis, instead of escaping and accusing others, such as what happened with the Governor of the Central Bank, for political calculations that put the country at risk. This plan will be under study and monitoring, under the roof of protecting the liberal economic system and securing the interests of the Lebanese and not harming their deposits, and whether it is convincing to the Lebanese, and the international community in terms of returning to the necessary reforms to monetize the gains of the CEDRE conference accomplished by the government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, which was disrupted by those who consider it today a means to rescue what can be rescued.
It is important for the Future Bloc to draw the attention of the President of the Republic and the government to the necessity of reading recent history. They have the right to consider the approval of the economic plan as a historic day, but they have no right to jump over irrefutable facts, recognized by the whole world, and claim that it is the first time that an economic plan is approved, thus forgetting the economic plans that were approved at the Paris Conferences 1, 2 and 3 and the CEDRE conference. If these plans had been implemented, and had not been met with obstruction and maliciousness, Lebanon and the Lebanese would have been in a great situation today,” the statement maintained.
Until this moment, the intentions and actions of this Mandate, and its government, are not promising. The Lebanese are tired of its failings as much as they are tired of its historic days and the fact that it considers that history begins with it and ends with it. They are bored of the Don Quixotism of its cronies that are harming the present, future and decent life of the Lebanese day after day.
The Future Bloc supports the high national responsibility that characterizes the previous heads of government’s statement, in warning against the danger of overcoming the Taif Agreement and the constitution, and calling on the President and Prime Minister to adopt a roadmap to save the country based on the 7 provisions included in the statement, instead of pursuing the practices and policies that deepen national division and open the country and the interests of people to ominous risks.The Future bloc considers that the protests in a number of Lebanese regions express the suffering of the people after the collapse of the exchange rate of the Lebanese Pound and the crazy rise in prices, and warns against some attempts to divert it from its path with the violation of public and private property, and the plans of others to put citizens in a confrontation with the army and the security forces whose duty is to guarantee their protection and their right to peaceful expression. In conclusion, the bloc salutes the solidarity meeting that took place at Dar Al Fatwa for the Coalition of Charitable Institutions, and what it achieved to extend a helping hand to people in all regions and praises the Grand Mufti, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, for his keenness that Dar Al Fatwa be the home of all Lebanese and Muslims, full of goodness, blessing and unity. The bloc also pays tribute to the workers of Lebanon on the occasion of Labor Day, even if they are not in a good situation due to the serious living crisis and the erosion of the value of their salaries and their purchasing power.”
[Former PM Hariri's Press Office]

Berri meets with Kubis, Rampling, receives congratulatory cable from his Tunisian counterpart
NNA/May 01/2020
Speaker of the House, Nabih Berri, met at Ain El-Tineh today with the Special Coordinator of the United Nations Secretary-General, Jan Kubis, with talks centering on the general conditions prevailing in the country, particularly at the financial and economic levels. Speaker Berri also reviewed the latest political developments and bilateral relations between Lebanon and Britain with British Ambassador to Lebanon, Chris Rampling, during their meeting today.On the other hand, Berri received a congratulatory cable on the occasion of the holy month of Ramadan from Tunisian House Speaker Rashid Ghannouchi.
In turn, Speaker Berri cabled Engineer Mestidran Abdo, congratulating him on his election as Speaker of the Federal Parliament in the Republic of the Comoros.

Nasrallah congratulates workers on Labor Day, will address the Lebanese on political issues upcoming Monday
NNA/May 01/2020
Hezbollah Secretary-General, Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, congratulated the Lebanese workers on the occasion of Labor Day, in a televised speech this evening on Al-Manar TV Channel which was devoted to speaking about the blessed month of Ramadan.Nasrallah disclosed that he will address the Lebanese on the political situation upcoming Monday at 5:00 p.m.

Demonstrations and marches fill Riad El-Solh & Martyrs’ Squares with calls for protection of workers' rights, setting a rescue plan
NNA/May 01/2020
Labor Day, which falls on May 1st of each year, coincided this year with the ongoing demonstrations in central Beirut’s squares to protest the difficult economic and daily living conditions prevailing in the country. Labor Day also happened to fall this year in the time of quarantine due to the Corona epidemic, with an increase in the number of workers affected by the closure of numerous institutions and suspension from work. At Riad El-Solh Square, the National Federation of Labor Unions organized a demonstration in which members of the Lebanese Communist Party and various leftist forces participated in their vehicles, as the march set out from in front of the Union’s headquarters in Wata al-Mseitbeh towards Riad El-Solh Square, with the participants raising the Lebanese flag and chanting national and revolutionary songs and slogans. They also carried banners calling for the protection of workers' rights and holding the state authority, including the government, parliament, the central bank and commercial banks, responsible for the crisis in Lebanon and for robbing the money of the poor and national social security funds, demanding the return of the looted funds. At Martyrs' Square, a number of retired soldiers gathered, reiterating their demands that their rights be preserved, and stressing that "there is no trust in the government." A number of protesters from different regions also organized a sit-in at Martyrs’ Square in protest against their dire living conditions, appealing to all sides in the state to "put a rescue plan that preserves workers 'and employees' rights and savings in banks."Similarly, a massive popular march set out at noon today from outside the Ministry of Labor in Mushrafieh area towards the Central Bank of Lebanon, under the headline, "Workers, the cornerstone of the nation, the fuel for change", with participants raising Lebanese flags and banners denouncing the policy of commercial banks and the Lebanese Central Bank, the quick rise in the US dollar exchange rate, the high cost of living and the huge unemployment…The march stopped in front of the Social Affairs Ministry before continuing towards the Central Bank in Hamra, amid strict security presence of army, internal security forces and riot police units.

Bassil: Recovering stolen money is our struggle
NNA/May 01/2020
Head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), MP Gibran Bassil, congratulated, via his Twitter account, all the workers on the occasion of the International Labor Day. Your Day this year, bears the brunt of the crisis...Rest assured that the FPM supports your rights," he said.Bassil added: "Recovering stolen money is our struggle, and most importantly, the transition to a productive economy that will create more jobs and increase income."He also called on workers to unify their stance against those who stole their years of hard work, in order to build a productive and prosperous state.

Nestlé confirms ‘Food and Beverage Supply’ in Lebanon
NNA/May 01/2020
In a press release on Friday, Nestlé has announced its commitment to ensuring the much-needed supply of its food and beverage products in Lebanon.  The Swiss Food and Beverage company, which established its first operations in the Middle East in Lebanon in 1934, currently employs more than 600 people in the country in sales, marketing, distribution, and at two water factories. Vowing to overcome currency devaluation hurdles and banking restrictions that have imposed importing challenges and increased operational costs, Nestlé’s General Business Manager in Lebanon Nehmatallah Younes thanked consumers “who have made products such as NIDO, MAGGI, NESCAFÉ, and KITKAT trusted brands over the decades throughout the country’s prosperous and difficult times.” Nestlé’s “collection rate” – the US Dollar exchange rate at which it collects Lebanese Pound payments from its customers – remained unchanged for more than five months at 1,517 until February 10th, despite deteriorating currency rates and increased shortages of US Dollars on the Lebanese market. The company had to adjust it to reflect market conditions, while always maintaining it at lower than market rates and ensuring product prices in US Dollars remain the same. “We hope prevailing market currency rates will allow us to reduce our collection rate again soon, and we remain committed to our Lebanese consumers,” concluded Younes.

Army Command: Series of violations by Israeli enemy drones
NNA/May 01/2020
Lebanese Army Command - Orientation Directorate disclosed in two issued communiqués on Friday, that the Israeli enemy’s aircrafts have executed a series of violations of Lebanon’s airspace.
In its first communiqué, the Army Command indicated that an Israeli enemy reconnaissance drone breached the national airspace over the town of Rmeish at 8:00 a.m. today, circled over areas in the South region, and then left at 11:55 am, flying over the town of Alma al-Shaeb. In a second communiqué, the Army Command stated that on April 30,2020, at 8.40 a.m., an Israeli enemy reconnaissance plane violated the Lebanese airspace over the southern town of al-Naqura, circled over the areas of Beirut and its suburbs, Baabda, Aley and the South region, and then left at 19:25 hours over the town of Rmeish. The communiqué added that at 12:55 a.m., a similar enemy aircraft violated the Lebanese airspace over the town of al-Naqura, conducted circular flights over the southern areas, and then left the airspace at 16:10 hours over the town of Rmeish. Furthermore, the communiqué indicated that at 16:25 hours, a similar enemy aircraft breached the national airspace over the town of Mays al-Jabal, circled over the southern areas, and then left at 22:25 hours over the town of Rmeish.The communiqué concluded that at 22:00 hours on Thursday, a similar enemy drone violated the national skies over the town of Rmeish, circled over various areas of the South, and then left the airspace at 00:20 hours on Friday, flying over the aforementioned town.

Coronavirus has caused protests in Lebanon to reignite
Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/May 01/2020
جوناثين سباير/جيرزولم بوست: جائحة الكورونا تتسب بموجة من المظاهرات في لبنان
The virus has no political preferences, and its generalized assault has led to cooperation in some arenas between bitter rivals.
Throughout the country, Lebanese bristle against the issues of economy and living standards
One of the immediate effects of COVID-19 on the Middle East has been to clear the streets of the mass demonstrations that had filled the public squares of a number of regional capitals in the preceding months. The virus has no political preferences, and its generalized assault has led to cooperation in some arenas between bitter rivals.
In certain Middle East countries, however, the virus has provided a boon for authoritarian regimes. Specifically, Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, in the first months of 2020, all witnessed widespread protests against economic mismanagement and corruption. In Iran, brute force dispersed the demonstrations. In Iraq and Lebanon, the virus brought them to an abrupt end.
In Lebanon, however, the demonstrations have now recommenced. And there are strong indications that policies enacted as a result of the virus are now exacerbating, rather than containing, public anger.
The virus arrived in a country already in deep crisis. Lebanon is, put plainly, a failed state and a failed economy. The national debt stood at 170% of GDP in 2019. Roughly 50% of government spending went toward servicing this debt in 2019. In March 2020, for the first time, Lebanon defaulted on its debts. In that month, the government suspended payment on a $1.2 billion Eurobond, due on March 9.
As the Lebanese currency declined in value, banks sought to protect themselves and avoid bank runs by restricting withdrawals of dollars and other foreign currency. This increased the burden facing the public and fueled anger.
The Lebanese pound has devalued by more than 50% over the last six months. The government has refused to formalize the currency controls imposed by the banks. As a result, wealthy and/or well-connected Lebanese have been able to access and move funds.
Those without connections are left to bear the brunt of the discretionary controls imposed by the banks. Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced this week that in January and February, $5.7b. was transferred out of Lebanon’s banks.
THE CURRENT domination of the Lebanese political system by the Iranian proxy Hezbollah group and its allies has further contributed to the deteriorating situation. Since the elections of May 2018, Hezbollah and its allies have openly controlled both the legislative and executive branches of government. Hezbollah is the dominant force in a bloc controlling 74 seats in the 128-member parliament, and 19 of 30 cabinet portfolios. The movement, incidentally, has direct control of the public health ministry. Its minister, Jamal Jabak, is the former personal physician of Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah.
Iran/Hezbollah’s increasingly open control of Lebanon has led to a precipitate decline in foreign investment in the country over the last decade. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were once Lebanon’s main trading partners in the Gulf. They have sharply downgraded their involvement in recent years. Once, the Gulf monarchies might have been willing to dig deep to prevent a Lebanese default. But Hezbollah-owned Lebanon will find no such generous benefactors. And, of course, the sanctions-strapped masters in Tehran have no cash to spare.
Indeed, even Hezbollah itself is seeing its funding from Tehran slashed. US sanctions and the urgent need to respond to the COVID-19 crisis make sharp reductions in Tehran’s funding to its Lebanese IRGC franchise likely.
Lebanon responded early to the COVID-19 crisis. Parliament was shuttered on March 9. Schools, universities, malls and public institutions are closed. A strict curfew operates in the night hours, and the authorities advise citizens to stay at home during the day.
The result is that the virus appears to have been contained. The spread has been reduced to less than 10 new reported cases per day.
The economic impact of the government’s containment measures, however, has been severe. Social Affairs Minister Ramzi Musharrafieh told CNN on Tuesday that 75% of Lebanese citizens are in need of aid. The already high unemployment rate has risen to 30%, including 60% of young people. Many small and medium-sized businesses have collapsed.
The combination of restrictive moves by the banks, which have severely impacted on the lives of citizens, the preexisting economic crisis, international isolation because of Iran/Hezbollah’s control of the country, the deterioration in living standards as a result of stringent efforts over two months to contain COVID-19, and now the relative success of these efforts has produced a return to popular protest in recent days.
The largest-scale protests have taken place in Tripoli, a poverty-stricken and majority-Sunni city in the north of the country. But Beirut, Sidon, Nabatiya, Akkar and the Bekaa have also witnessed demonstrations. The banks, predictably have been a focus for much of the anger. A number of banks have been torched and vandalized by the protestors.
So far, one demonstrator has been killed in Tripoli. Fouaz el-Samaan, according to witnesses, was shot dead by the army.
The current protests differ from those that preceded the pandemic in their more confrontational and violent nature. Unlike in Iraq and Iran, the previous protests in Lebanon were characterized by an avoidance of clashes with the representatives of the state. This has now changed. A woman demonstrator in Beirut told Al Jazeera that “the army are not our brothers. They are shooting at us to protect the politicians.”
At the present time, the situation remains fluid. But the protests show no signs of dissipating. While temporary fixes may be found, it is difficult to see how the deeper problems of Lebanon can be addressed short of a major overhaul of the system, which would be resisted by the most powerful forces in the country.
As in Iraq and Iran, the Lebanese are discovering what it means to be under the ownership of a system that has neither answers to, nor any particular interest in, issues of economy and living standards.
What this means in the specific Lebanese case is that the IRGC-implanted deep state, which today controls the country, is of necessity protecting the corrupt and dysfunctional system within which it lives. A parasite, after all, must among other things preserve the life of its host.
The growing visibility of the IRGC system and its dominance, meanwhile, is gradually driving away those forces whose input has traditionally served to mitigate the effects of the system’s dysfunctionality. As a result, the Hezbollah deep state is running out of resources to siphon off.
Against this reality, Lebanese are once again taking to the streets. Given the relative strength of the sides, however, ongoing strife and instability rather than rapid change seem the most likely outcome.

Lebanon’s new phase of uprising: Reflections on violence, clientelism, organizing
Nadim El Kak/Al Arabiya/May 01/2020
The Lebanese uprising, which initially erupted on October 17, 2019, has now officially entered its second phase. Following the global pandemic hiatus, protesters have returned to the streets across the country since April 26, when the Lebanese lira’s market exchange rate surpassed 4,000 to the dollar for the first time.Riots in Tripoli and Saida – Lebanon’s two largest cities after Beirut – commanded national attention as protesters expressed their anger and deep frustration at a political and financial establishment that drove the country into economic collapse. The state responded violently, as the army was ordered to fire at the crowds in Tripoli on the night of April 27, leading to the tragic death of 26-year old protester Fawaz Fouad Al-Samman.
Evidently, the same grievances and living conditions that sparked the mass movement initially are all the more flagrant today. Since the start of the nationwide lockdown on March 15, the Lebanese lira has further depreciated while layoffs, mounting inflation, depleting US dollar reserves, and political bickering amongst elites further threaten the livelihoods of the already-struggling residents of Lebanon.
The deteriorating symptoms driving today’s mobilizations are indeed not novel, yet this new phase of the movement is bound to distinguish itself from the previous phase in a number of ways.
Popular anger and state violence
First, more violent revolutionary tactics are now the norm. In the first weeks of the uprising, nonviolent strategies were dominant and squares were often characterized by a festive nature.
However, as reality set in and more affluent members of society retreated to their homes, riots became more frequent with protesters increasingly breaking the façade of banks, wrecking public and private property, and deploying Molotov cocktails. The second wave of the uprising will surely be associated with those dynamics.
Undoubtedly, the establishment holds a clear advantage in fighting power during violent confrontations. Nonetheless, calling for pacifism at a time when protesters struggle for their lives and that of their families signals a lack of understanding of the nature of the state. This is not a call to arms. Rather, it is a call to understand that political elites will never relinquish power by their own means and that the state, by nature, is violent.
Violence is systemic and structural, symbolic and material. While it is reproduced in the present, its effects are also transmitted transgenerationally. Simply, violence is all around us and this should be recognized before engaging in elitist criticisms of protesters’ actions.
No social security, more clientelism
Second, and on a different note, worsening economic conditions and additional austerity measures are bound to make the most vulnerable even easier targets for the clientelistic webs of sectarian parties.
Indeed, support for traditional parties is not a result of what is labeled as culturally entrenched sectarian identities, nor is it foolish blindness to wrongdoings and abuses of power. More often than not, it is either due to tangible socio-economic benefits – in the form of healthcare, education, legal services, job security, and financial assistance – or due to physical intimidation and fear of social sanctioning.
As poverty increases, and with a neoliberal state designed not to provide universal safety nets, many are bound to accept help from the only source they find in sectarian parties. Political parties’ responses to the pandemic already signaled their adamancy on rebuilding their clientelist bases.
Some are rejecting conditional charity, though, as they recognize that no form of patronage is sustainable and capable of covering all subsistence needs from food and house supplies to rent, electricity, water, healthcare, and schooling.
The sole solution for the people is drafting a comprehensive and long-term economic plan that adequately redistributes wealth in one of the most unequal countries in the world, while also focusing on shifting away from the rentier model toward a productive economy that generates jobs and provides social protection. Needless to say, however, that the establishment is dismissive of such demands as it caters to its private interests and those of its partners.
Potential class-based alternatives?
To oppose the sectarian elites and their exploitative economic system, grassroots-based alternatives need to become more credible actors in the political arena. The only Arab revolutions that were relatively successful in achieving political transitions are Sudan and Tunisia. Beyond other contextual specificities, what distinguished these bottom-up movements was their strong organizational structures, namely in the form of workers’ unions and neighborhood committees.
Labor unions in Lebanon used to be strong and relevant actors until their repression and eventual co-optation in the late 1990s. This effectively ended citizens’ ability to formally organize along class identity, which is the main antithesis to sectarian identity.
In the early stages of the uprising in October 2019, many recognized the need to rebuild those networks, resulting in the emergence of various alternative unions bringing together teachers, doctors, engineers/architects, media workers, NGO employees, and artists among others. Looking to transcend sectarian politics, these new groups seek to become structures capable of fighting for the socio-economic interests of their members and reigniting the dormant labor struggle.
In parallel, emerging political groups such as LiHaqqi (For my Rights) and Mouwatinoun wa Mouwatinat fi Dawla (Citizens in a State) are gradually expanding their bases and gaining much-needed experience and exposure as political entities. These progressive actors are also looking to move away from the hierarchical, patriarchal, and outdated dynamics that have traditionally defined ruling parties.
Earlier this month, LiHaqqi held internal elections in what was a true exercise in participatory democracy. Over 100 members were elected to different roles and positions within the group, including a Council of Delegates comprised of over 50 individuals representing different geographic and sectorial roots, as well as a secretarial, finance, media, political relations, and political positions committees, each comprised of 4 to 8 members. All committees and councils abide to a balance in genders and operate according to a thorough organizational structure.
These political groups and unions surely face various internal challenges and are still not ready to overtake traditional political parties as the formal representatives of the people. Yet such attempts at class-based organizing help in politicizing the larger public, particularly the youth, and give some hope that society will eventually succeed in determining its own future, away from the warlords-turned-politicians and their business partners.
*Nadim El Kak is a researcher at the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS) and research associate at Lebanon Support. He tweets @NadimElkak.

Lebanese emergency agriculture plan leaves questions unanswered
Jacob Boswall/ Al Arabiya English/Thursday 30 April 2020
A leaked draft “Emergency Plan” to improve Lebanon’s food security during the coronavirus pandemic is not enough to help those living under the poverty line, experts say. In the crisis-struck country, the number of those living below the poverty line is increasing.
The 20-slide presentation from Lebanon’s cash-strapped Agriculture Ministry recommends that the government provide in-kind aid to farmers worth around 400,000 Lebanese lira ($133 at the official exchange rate), import major cereals directly from producing countries, and increase domestic cereal production.
But in Lebanon, access to food is a far bigger problem than supply, according to experts. The cost of buying essential foodstuffs – including basic items such as rice, bulgur, pasta, beans, and sugar – increased by 28 percent between September and December 2019, according to the World Food Programme.
Inflation is a central cause of soaring food prices. Dollar shortages in Lebanon’s economy have caused the local currency to lose over half of its value in recent months.
By March, 45 percent of Lebanon’s population was under the poverty line. The loss of livelihoods during the coronavirus lockdown is likely to have pushed many more into food insecurity.
Statistics from the Ministry of the Economy and Trade show even more dramatic price increases for certain items. Since April 2019, the average price of garlic has risen by around 81 percent, while fava beans have risen by nearly 62 percent.
Too little, too late
The plan, seen by Al Arabiya English, suggests a campaign to increase high-value “cash crops” including fresh fruits and vegetables. In the medium term, small-scale farmers would receive loans for projects that can quickly turn a profit, such as fish farming.
“The strategic plan requires more time to be finished – around a month more work,” Lebanon’s Agriculture Minister Abbas Mortada told Al Arabiya English, adding that the envisaged time period for implementation would be five years.
The plan also includes a mechanism to increase wheat production, a critical product, even though one soil science specialist, Issam Bashour, said it was not enough to cover the country’s demand.
But there is a bigger snag. The Agriculture Ministry, which has been allocated a mere 0.35 percent of the 2020 state budget, largely overlooks how the most vulnerable communities will receive sufficient nutrition during this time of crisis.
“The plan lacks any nutrition-related goals,” explained a community nutrition specialist at the American University of Beirut, who preferred not to be named.
“[The plan] addresses increased local production, but there is no mention of what could be done at the consumer level to improve their food choices, reduce panic buying and ensure that the food that is being produced is nutritious as well as accessible,” they continued.
Financial Security or Food Security?
Meanwhile, the local currency’s swift devaluation means that the ministry’s pledge to help farmers is less generous than it looks, argues Lebanese activist Ghassan Makarem. Makarem is a member of SEAC, a collective promoting sustainable agricultural projects in rural and urban settings.
“400,000 L.L. is worth $100 now… I don’t think this amount is enough, especially if you want to start diversifying your products,” Makarem continued. “The problem with this kind of support is that it creates dependency and doesn’t provide farmers with enough to be able to continue on their own.”
Makarem believes that the ministry should instead focus on measures to help farmers become independent – such as reducing their reliance on imported pesticides.
“There was a crisis in the international and local food markets even before coronavirus. There has been absolutely no will by the government to even look at questions of sustainability and food sovereignty,” added Makarem.
According to the plan, Lebanon imported almost $300 million worth of agricultural inputs in 2019. Now, farmers must struggle against an unfavourable exchange rate to pay for the imports.
The plan recommends a mechanism to allow the government to open credits to cover the US dollar difference for farmers importing agriculture necessities, but it does not specify who would be directly responsible for this mechanism.
Without such consideration, even Lebanon’s farmers’ paltry local production will falter, adds Bashour, since “financial security and food security always go together.”
Under the plan, soft and hard wheat production would increase by 2,000 and 1,700 tonnes, respectively, to offset Lebanon’s high import dependency and counteract future upsets in the global supply chain.
Lebanon’s current domestic wheat production only covers 10 percent of its almost 500,000 tonnes of yearly consumption.
Bashour, professor of soil science and plant nutrition at the American University of Beirut, believes that the suggested increase would do little to alter Lebanon’s reliance on cereal imports.
“Increasing wheat production, soft and hard, by a total of less than 4,000 tons will help a little but will not close the gap,” he told Al Arabiya English.

Prices soar as Lebanon’s economic crisis worsens
Nicholas Frakes, Al Arabiya English/Friday 01 May 2020
As Lebanon’s economic crisis continues to worsen, with the value of the Lebanese lira spiraling, the prices of goods at stores have started to increase, with some products almost doubling in price. Imported food – that account for around 80 percent of Lebanon’s food supply – and locally produced products are both subject to inflation, though unevenly. A dollar shortage in the country means that importers are unable to secure dollars at the pegged rate to pay for their goods, but even locally produced products might have an import component, such as packaging, that requires sellers to raise their prices, even if it is just marginally. The Lebanese lira is officially pegged to the US dollar at a rate of 1,507 to one, but that peg has slipped over the past months, and is now around 4,300 to the dollar on the parallel market, despite efforts by the central bank to stabilize the rate down between 3,000 and 3,800.
As the lira continues to sink, Lebanese have lost some of their purchasing power, and poverty and hunger are on the rise in some pockets of the country.
For people like Mariam, who spoke with Al Arabiya English on the condition of anonymity, and other residents of Chiyah, an area in Beirut’s poverty-stricken southern suburbs, the lack of money and uncertainty is crushing.
Prices high, supermarkets closed
“Don’t ask me about the high increase of prices,” Mariam stated passionately, “Ask me how much it’s costing me to make one bowl of salad, with tomatoes costing up to 4,000 lira ($2.64, at the official rate). Most supermarkets in Chiyah have closed because they don’t have money to buy products or pay their employees.”Ramadan, traditionally marked with family feasts for iftar dinners, has proven challenging this year.
My kids used to break their fast by eating soup, salad, and either carrot juice or mixed fruit juice, but we don’t have much for main courses during Ramadan,” Miriam said. “We are now limited with the amount of salad we make. My 14-year-old son loves soup, so my other daughter puts less soup on her plate so he can take more. My husband does the same. Why? Because we know that once this bag of lentil finishes, we might not have 6,000 lira ($4, at the official rate) to buy another.”
Miriam said that she, her daughter, and her husband – a taxi driver – have all stopped work. Her oldest daughter may soon stop working too, and since the beginning of the crisis, she has been paid 400,000 lira, which is $264 at the pegged rate and around $117 at the real rate.
Her husband’s taxi cab is in need of repairs they cannot afford, but she said the family is unable to afford even the simplest things, like the medicine that she needs, but hasn’t bought for three months.
Miriam said she would prefer a war over the failing economy as she says it would at least unite the people together and everyone would help their communities.
“An Israeli invasion would’ve been better than this,” Mariam exclaimed, “Because then we’d know that if we needed anything we can knock on the doors of our neighbors and they’ll lend us a hand. But now we’re all in the same situation.”
Tensions between Lebanon and Israel have been present for decades, and the countries fought their most-recent war in 2006.
“I don’t know what I might do if the crises continues,” she said, “Is the solution protesting? They [the government] won’t listen. Is the solution to burn down the country? The country is ours. I wish someone can tell us of a way to we can fix this crisis.”The economics of price rising and a way forward
Prices across the board are rising, and according to Hani Bohsali, head of the Syndicate of Importers of Foodstuffs, Consumer Products and Drinks, if the economic crisis continues to worsen, and the lira continues to depreciate, many products will no longer be brought into the country as imports won’t be able to turn a profit on them.
However, this does not include the products that stores already have in their inventory that they bought at the old exchange rate.
“If you’re a retailer,” Mike Azar, a financial adviser, told Al Arabiya English, “then you have a lot of inventory … that you bought many months ago, and [that] cost was based on the old exchange rate.”
Those products may not be subject to inflation just yet, meaning there are discrepancies in food costs around the country, but it’s different from place to place. Also, due to the rapid decline of Lebanon’s economy, this has caused some stores to raise the prices of various goods to a level that is above their worth, an act called “price gouging.”
“Some stores may be price gouging. There’s probably a lot of that happening,” Azar said. “Overall, prices are going to go up regardless if it’s now or in the near-term because the exchange rate has gotten weaker, and most importers don’t benefit from the official exchange rate.”
For importers of fuel, wheat, and medicine, the central bank has subsidized their product, ensuring they can buy dollars at the official rate.
For the majority of importers, however, they have to change currencies in the exchange shops, making the good subject to price fluxes.
And as the dollars dry up, inflation rises.
“What concerns us is the … availability of dollars,” he said.
Importers are more heavily affected when they sell their products, rather than when they buy them. This is because when importers sell their products, their buyers have to exchange their currency at a constantly shifting, usually upward, black market rate, according to Bohsali
Azar explained that in order to start fixing the economic situation, there need to be reforms that help restore not only local confidence in the lira, but with the international community as well.
“The only way to do that,” he said, “is to give people confidence that the government will be able to do the reforms that are needed to stabilize the economy, to get dollars flowing back into the economy and [encourage] investment in the economy.”
Few have faith the government can make those reforms, even though they passed an economic reform plan yesterday that lays out a path for the heavily indebted country to begin to climb out from its current spiral.
“Nobody can predict exchange rates,” Azar later added, “The lira can become 3,000 tomorrow. It’s inherently unpredictable. Where the exchange rate goes depends on the decisions that are made today.”

Coronavirus adds to prenatal anxieties of pregnant women in Lebanon
Emily Lewis, Al Arabiya English/Friday 01 May 2020
When 26-year-old Leen al-Shurafa found out she was pregnant with her first child on March 11 after two months of trying, she was “over the moon” with happiness. Just four days later, Lebanon announced a nationwide lockdown in response to the outbreak of coronavirus. Like many of the approximately 125,000 pregnant women in Lebanon, the first thing on Shurafa’s mind was how the global pandemic would affect her and her baby. “At first, I was calm and thought that by the time my due date came around, the pandemic would have subsided,” Shurafa told Al Arabiya English.
“But now as I am in my third month and with news of a vaccine needing at least one year, I am getting anxious.”According to the Lebanese Health Ministry’s daily report Friday, 729 people have been infected with COVID-19 in Lebanon, of whom 24 have died.
Global medical research has so far found no evidence that pregnant women are more likely to experience severe coronavirus symptoms than other healthy adults, nor that the virus can be transmitted from mother to baby in the womb, during birth, or through breastfeeding. Nevertheless, concerns around catching the virus and the possibility of changes to prenatal care schedules has made what is already a stressful time for pregnant women, even more difficult.
Fears rising
“Being pregnant, women automatically become more cautious,” said Dr. Faysal Elkak, a senior Obstetrics and Gynecology physician at the American University of Beirut’s medical center. “Women are worried about catching the virus without knowing, and many are very anxious.”Dana Hossein, a 33-year-old who is 29 weeks pregnant with her second child, is due to deliver on July 21. “I’ve had sleepless nights about my pregnancy,” she said. To try and alleviate some of pregnant women’s concerns, a group of doctors, midwives and other relevant health professionals came together in March to form the national taskforce on pregnancy and coronavirus. For Elkak, one of the founding members of the taskforce, it is essential to ensure women are provided with all the information they need in a positive, reassuring, and sensitive way. “It is unethical to make pregnant women bear an unnecessary burden by making her overly anxious,” he said.
To ensure pregnant and breastfeeding women have access to the necessary information, videos containing tips on how to protect themselves and their babies have been sent out via SMS, aired on all major TV channels, and uploaded to social media. Helplines to answer women’s questions have also been made available. Pregnant women are encouraged to follow the same precautions as the rest of the population, including reducing contact with others, staying at home and engaging in regular hand-washing practices. Even if they test positive for coronavirus, women can still have a vaginal birth and breastfeed their baby, as long as they wash hands and wear a protective mask. However, it was not only the pregnant women themselves who have raised concerns about how to cope during an unprecedented global health crisis.
A lot of unknowns
Many health workers also had questions about the procedures they should be adopting when treating pregnant women during the novel coronavirus outbreak, according to Rima Cheaito, the head of the scientific committee at the Lebanese Order of Midwives.
“Coronavirus is new and information on [how it affects pregnancy] was quite limited,” Cheaito said. Therefore, part of the national taskforce’s mandate is to monitor COVI-19 in pregnant women, develop healthcare guidelines and conduct relevant training with healthcare professionals. “We wanted to create a unified language and standard protocols to be adopted nationwide,” Cheaito explained. Prenatal clinics have been advised to reduce the number of patients in the clinic at one time, space out appointments, including by postponing “non-essential” visits, and screen patients for COVID-19 symptoms before they attend in person. “They’ve changed a lot at my doctor’s office; you no longer sit in a waiting room, everything is sanitized and they try not to bring you in unless it’s urgent,” Hossein said. While some countries in Europe and North America have seen a shift toward home births as women worry about delivering in overstretched hospitals where they are exposed to a higher risk of infection, the same trend has not been seen in Lebanon. “Home birth is not popular in Lebanon anyway, and our recommendation remains that hospitals are the safest place for women to deliver,” Elkak said. Shurafa considered a home birth, but later decided the risk of being out of hospital in the case of complications during her first pregnancy was one she was not willing to take. Her main concern now is the prospect of facing labor alone, as hospitals have now limited visitors due to concerns of the spread of the coronavirus – in some cases visitors are banned entirely. “Labor is already hard enough to think about with the coronavirus,” she said. Beyond the stresses of changing medical appointments and reconsidering birth plans, Hossein said she was sad to be missing out on some of the less taxing aspects of pregnancy. “I can’t go out and go shopping for my baby,” she said. “The whole excitement of being pregnant is gone.”

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 01-02/2020
US imposes new Iran-related sanctions on Iraqi national linked to Quds Force
Reuters, Washington/Friday 01 May 2020
The United States on Friday imposed sanctions on Taif Mining Services LLC and its owner over accusations he helped support Iran's elite Quds Force, including in efforts to smuggle shipments from Iran to Yemen, the US Treasury Department said. The Treasury Department said in a statement that Iranian and Iraqi national Amir Dianat has supported Quds Force smuggling operations for years, including efforts aimed at the shipment of weapons including missiles. In addition to the Treasury Department's blacklisting of Dianat, the US Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia filed criminal charges against him and one of his business associates for violations of sanctions and money laundering laws. The sanctions freeze any U.S.-held assets of Dianat or Taif Mining Services and generally bar Americans from dealing with them. “The Iranian regime and its supporters continue to prioritize the funding of international terrorist organizations over the health and well-being of the Iranian people,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in the statement. Tensions between Washington and Tehran have spiked since Trump unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal struck by his predecessor, Barack Obama, and began re-imposing sanctions that had been eased under the accord.

Iran threatens Germany for ban on Hezbollah, says will have to face consequences
AFP, Tehran/Friday 01 May 2020
Iran has slammed Germany’s ban on the activities of Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement on its soil, saying it would face consequences for its decision to give in to Israeli and US pressure. Germany branded Hezbollah a “Shiite terrorist organization” on Thursday, with dozens of police and special forces storming mosques and associations across the country linked to the Lebanese militant group. In a statement issued overnight, Iran’s foreign ministry said the ban ignores “realities in West Asia.”The Islamic republic said the move was based solely on the goals of the “propaganda machine of the Zionists and America’s confused regime.”Read more: The domestication of Hezbollah in the time of coronavirus. It “strongly” condemned the decision it said showed “complete disrespect to the government and nation of Lebanon, as Hezbollah is a formal and legitimate part of the country’s government and parliament.”Iran said Hezbollah had a “key role in fighting Daesh’s [ISIS] terrorism in the region,” using the Arabic acronym for the extremist group. “The German government must face the negative consequences of its decision in the fight against real terrorist groups in the region,” it added. Hezbollah supporter, US fugitive Tareck El Aissami appointed Venezuelan oil minister Israeli drone targets Hezbollah near Lebanon's border with Syria: Sources
Israel and Hezbollah's tug of war
Hezbollah was established in 1982 during the Lebanese civil war and fought a 2006 war with Israel. Iran is a major supporter of the Lebanese Shiite group and its “resistance” against the Islamic republic’s arch foe Israel. The United States and Israel have long designated Hezbollah as a terrorist group and urged allies to follow suit. Like the European Union, Germany had until now outlawed only Hezbollah’s military wing while tolerating its political wing. Britain outlawed Hezbollah’s political wing last year, making membership of the Shia movement or inviting support for it a crime.

Iran denies US claim it’s helping Venezuela oil sector
AFP/May 01/2020
TEHRAN: Iran on Friday rejected US claims it is helping Venezuela to rebuild its oil industry, saying the accusations are designed to increase pressure and disrupt the two countries’ trade ties. Elliott Abrams, the envoy leading US efforts to topple Venezuela’s leftist leader Nicolas Maduro, has alleged that the cash-strapped country is paying Iran in gold to restore the troubled sector. US President Donald Trump’s administration has imposed unilateral sanctions aimed at ending oil exports from Iran and Venezuela, both major crude producers. Iran’s foreign ministry in a statement called Abrams’ claims “baseless,” without directly addressing accusations that the Islamic republic is being paid in gold. It accused Washington of trying to increase “pressure on Venezuela’s government and disrupt trade between Iran and Venezuela.”It said US policies against Venezuela including “economic sanctions, military threats and a recent transition council” had failed. Washington was now “trying to create obstacles in Venezuela’s plan to rebuild its refineries and produce oil products such as petrol, which is in short supply due to cruel US sanctions.”Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves but analysts say that the sector operates below capacity. The country’s economy has been collapsing, with millions fleeing as they lack basic goods. Iran has also taken a hit from US sanctions after Trump pulled out of a nuclear accord and reimposed them in 2018. Maduro has withstood more than a year of US-led efforts to remove him and retains the support of the military. Iran has repeatedly expressed support for Maduro against opposition leader Juan Guaido, who is recognized by some 60 nations as interim president due to reports of irregularities in Maduro’s 2018 re-election.

US Accuses Iran of Helping Venezuela Oil Sector
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 1 May, 2020
The United States said Thursday that Venezuela is paying Iran in gold to rebuild its troubled oil industry, denouncing the growing cooperation between its two adversaries. Elliott Abrams, the US special envoy for Venezuela, said that Iran has been sending "more and more planes" to the South American nation, including this week. "Our guess is that they are being paid in gold," he said at the Hudson Institute, a conservative Washington think tank. "Those planes that are coming in from Iran that are bringing things for the oil industry are returning with the payments for those things: gold,” Agence France Presse quoted him as saying. President Donald Trump's administration has slapped unilateral US sanctions aimed at ending oil exports from both Iran and Venezuela. Venezuela's economy has been collapsing, with millions fleeing as they lack basic goods, and Iran has also taken a hit from US sanctions. Abrams charged that Iran's role showed soft support for Venezuela's leftist leader Nicolas Maduro from Russia and China, which have stood by him despite Western pressure. "One of the reasons I mention that is not just to show that Iran is playing an increasing role, but notice that it's cash," Abrams said. "We know that Maduro has over the last year wanted Russian and Chinese additional loans, additional investments, and he has not gotten a dime," he said. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday also highlighted the two US nemeses' cooperation, saying that "multiple" aircraft had been spotted in Venezuela from Iran's Mahan Air.
The carrier is under US and other sanctions for transporting fighters and weapons on behalf of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. "These flights must stop and countries should do their part to deny overflights just as many have already denied landing rights to this sanctioned airline," Pompeo told reporters.

US to Exercise ‘All Diplomatic Options’ to Extend Iran Arms Embargo
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 1 May, 2020
The United States is “hopeful” the UN Security Council will extend an arms embargo on Iran before it expires in October, said US Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, on Thursday. He said the United States had drafted a Security Council resolution on the issue, which would need nine votes in favor and no vetoes by Russia, China, the United States, Britain or France to pass. Russia’s Ambassador to International Organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, told Russia’s Kommersant newspaper on Tuesday that Moscow was opposed to such a move. Some diplomats say the United States would likely struggle to get Iranian allies Russia and China to allow an arms embargo extension. But Hook repeatedly disagreed during a news conference, saying: “We are hopeful.” “Russia and China have great equities in a peaceful and stable Middle East, and Iran’s sectarian violence and its export of weapons is the principal driver of instability in the Middle East today,” Hook said. He also suggested that Washington did not plan to move ahead quickly with its push for the arms embargo extension. “Our focus is on engaging in thoughtful and measured diplomacy with all the relevant parties to successfully negotiate a renewal of the UN arms embargo,” he said. “We’re going to focus on that in the months ahead.” “They are well aware of our negative attitude towards this step and allegedly are working on a fall-back option,” said Ulyanov, whose previous job was head of the nonproliferation and arms controls department at Russia’s foreign ministry.
The fall-back option is for Washington to trigger a return of all UN sanctions on Iran if it fails to get the Security Council to extend the arms embargo - a strategy confirmed by a US official on Monday. Diplomats said Washington faces a messy battle if it carries out that threat, reported Reuters.
Washington has shared the strategy and an arms embargo draft with Britain, France and Germany, the US official confirmed. Diplomats said the draft resolution has not been shared with the remaining 11 council members, including Russia and China. The United States believes it could trigger a so-called snapback of all UN sanctions on Iran, including the arms embargo, using a process outlined in the 2015 deal between Iran and world powers that prevents Tehran from developing nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief. It is a move likely to be challenged, diplomats said, because US President Donald Trump quit the nuclear agreement in 2018 and described the accord from Barack Obama’s presidency as “the worst deal ever.” Hook declined to elaborate on what other efforts Washington would deploy if the United States failed in its bid to get the arms embargo extended by the Security Council. “The arms embargo must be renewed and we will exercise all diplomatic options to accomplish that,” he said.

Iran Adds Maritime Harassment, Satellite Launches to List of Regional Escalations
London - Adil al-Salmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 1 May, 2020
The spread of the coronavirus pandemic coincided with boiling US-Iranian tensions that escalated following the assassination of Iran’s Quds Force commander Qassim Soleimani and its retaliation by striking two bases hosting US forces in Iraq in what Iranian Foreign Minister justified as “self-defense.”The killing of Soleimani marked a turning point in the path of tensions that has further complicated the regional situation. In August 2018, Soleimani announced adopting asymmetric warfare against US forces and interests without direct interference from the Iranian armed forces. After Soleimani’s death, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) focused on rearranging its Quds Force proxies in the region, preparing for Soleimani’s successor, Esmail Ghaani, to take over. This coincided with public rage exploding against Iran’s ruling class after the IRGC admitted to downing a Ukrainian passenger plane.
These factors have increased the sensitivity of the legislative elections, which were a measure of "regime legitimacy " under the weight of the US policy of "maximum pressure" and a series of bloody protests that spanned over the past three years. On the eve of the first anniversary of US President Donald Trump signing a decree classifying the IRGC as a terrorist organization, the US Central Command reported naval friction between 11 vessels from the Guards and American warships. Washington described the friction as "dangerous and provocative."President Donald Trump later ordered the US Navy to destroy any Iranian boats veering close to US ships at sea. The IRGC, for its part, threatened that it now has anti-ship missiles with a range of 700 km. The Iranian armed forces issued a statement considering the American maritime alliance as a “threat to stability” in the Gulf. The statement warned that “any adventure, harassment or provocation will be met by a firm response from the Iranian armed forces and that the aggressors, especially the United States, will bear the consequences.”Parallel to maritime tensions in Arabian Gulf waters, the IRGC launched a new military satellite and ballistic missile at one time, drawing in criticism from the United States, Israel, and the European trio (France, Germany and Britain) that signed the nuclear agreement with Iran in 2015.

Iraq’s Parliament Awaits Cabinet Formation to Schedule Vote of Confidence Session
Baghdad/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 1 May, 2020
Iraq’s second deputy speaker, Bashir al-Haddad, has said that setting a date for a vote of confidence session to Prime Minister-designate Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s government hinges on sending the resumes of the nominated ministers to parliament. “The parliament has not yet set a date for an extraordinary session to give confidence to the new cabinet,” Haddad said. He pointed out that the legislature hasn’t been informed of the line-up. “Once informed of the names of candidates and their resumes, it shall schedule an extraordinary session on granting the cabinet a vote of confidence.” He said it would be difficult for lawmakers to arrive in Baghdad from different provinces due to the curfew and preventive measures taken to fight the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. In a statement on Thursday, Haddad said that instead of holding regular sessions, the parliament formed a crisis cell headed by first deputy speaker Hassan al-Kaabi. Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi assigned Kaabi to head a special committee to review the government’s program, a copy of which was sent by the PM-designate. Kadhimi’s office affirmed that he will send the candidates’ CVs to the parliament once the vote of confidence session is scheduled, supposedly early next week. Meanwhile, Baghdad and Erbil agreed not to let their differences over salaries, the state budget and oil to impede the government formation process. Kurdish lawmaker Hasan Ali said meetings held between the Kurdistan Regional Government’s delegation and officials in Baghdad have had good outcomes. Although both sides did not announce a practical settlement to their differences, yet they agreed to form technical committees to discuss them. This means discussions have been postponed until after the government formation. “Kurds don’t want to hinder the efforts to form the next Iraqi cabinet,” former Kurdish MP Majid Shankali said.

Kurdish Administration Isolates Hasakah over Virus Cases
Hasakah - Kamal Sheikho/ Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 1 May, 2020
The Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (NES) has isolated al-Hasakah city after three new coronavirus cases were reported there. In an official statement on Thursday, the Health Authority said the test results of two people confirmed their infection, adding that one lives in Hasakah and the other in Qamishli. The Administration’s Presidency of the Provincial Council called on citizens to remain home, avoid gathering and abide by the measures to fight the spread of the pandemic on a large scale. Head of the Health Authority Joan Mustafa said two samples were sent to Damascus and returned with positive results. “The samples were taken from a man and his wife who live in al-Hasakah,” he added, noting that the woman was sent to the quarantine facility in the National Hospital in Qamishli, while her husband was requested to stay at home in self-isolation. Mustafa urged people to inform the local authorities and contact medical teams on any suspected case. One patient has died in Hasakah and three others were reported infected in the city’s al-Omran neighborhood. Authorities have isolated the neighborhood and imposed full quarantine on its citizens and partial quarantine on the city.
Meanwhile, Kurdish internal security forces (Asayish) requested 14 families, who are neighbors and relatives of the reported cases in the neighborhood, to stay at home. Head of the Hasakah Provincial Council Abdul Ghani Osu pointed out that the Administration will provide necessary support and aid for quarantined families in Omran. “Bread, food and essential items will be provided for the families in the neighborhood every three days, in light of the total ban imposed on them,” Osu explained. Areas run by the Autonomous Administration suffer severe medical shortages after incoming cross-border aid was suspended. Administration officials expressed concern over the virus outbreak in areas under its control, especially in the camps.

Turkey says deployment of Russian defences delayed, but will happen
Humeyra Pamuk/Reuters/May 01/2020
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Turkey’s planned deployment of Russian S-400 missile defences has been delayed by the coronavirus outbreak but will ultimately go ahead, President Tayyip Erdogan’s spokesman said on Thursday, despite Washington’s warnings that Ankara risks U.S. sanctions.
“There has been a delay because of the coronavirus but it will move forward as it was planned,” Ibrahim Kalin told an online meeting hosted by the Atlantic Council, adding that Erdogan had told President Donald Trump several times that he was also interested in purchasing U.S. Patriot missiles.
Reuters earlier this month reported that Turkey delayed bringing online the Russian weapons systems, which the United States says are incompatible with NATO defences and would jeopardise U.S. F35 stealth jets which Turkey planned to buy.
Erdogan previously had said the S-400s would be activated in April but the coronavirus pandemic has focused Turkish efforts on combating the outbreak and supporting an economy which faces a second recession in two years. In recent weeks Erdogan and his government had not raised the issue publicly.
Making the S-400s operational exposes Turkey to U.S. sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) legislation designed to punish countries which buy defence equipment from Russia.
That prospect has been conveyed to the Turkish leadership multiple times, David Satterfield, U.S. Ambassador to Turkey also told the online panel. “We made our position quite explicit to President Erdogan, to all the senior leadership of Turkey, and that is the operation of the S-400 system...exposes Turkey to the very significant possibility of Congressional sanctions, both those that invoke the CAATSA legislation, and additional freestanding legislative sanctions.”“We do not have in our possession the assurances from the government of Turkey that would allow us to mitigate those concerns,” he added. Turkey says it is also in talks with the United States about trying to secure a swap line from the U.S. Federal Reserve as its foreign exchange reserves are eroded by the economic impact of the pandemic.Ankara is keen to secure funding from the U.S. central bank if possible, as it is not considering pursing a deal with the IMF. Satterfield on Thursday confirmed Ankara’s contact with the U.S. Federal Reserve. “There are certain requirements set by the open markets committee of the Fed with respect to potential eligibility. They are financial monetary requirements and conditions. They are not politically linked,” he said.
Reporting by Humeyra Pamuk; Editing by Dominic Evans

Azhar’s Grand Imam Says Islam Seeks No War
Cairo - Waleed Abdul Rahman/ Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 1 May, 2020
Grand Imam of Al-Azhar Sheikh Ahmed El-Tayyeb has called for embracing morals as the sole way out of the world’s crises. “Islam doesn’t seek war or bloodshed, and Muslims only fight back to defend themselves,” he affirmed. In this case, Muslims are prohibited to kill peaceful individuals such as priests, women, farmers and the elderly. In Thursday’s statement, the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar said that “mercy” is a key moral feature in Islam to guarantee a decent life. Its absence turns people’s lives into chaos, causes social and family breakdown, incites evil, peddles dominance over the country and people, and ignites wars. In his program ‘El-Tayyeb’, he stressed that the term “mercy” and its derivatives were mentioned 199 times in Quran, the statement read. God has urged believers to be merciful in all aspects, the Sheikh added. ‘El-Tayyeb Program’ is broadcast during Ramadan on several channels in Egypt and the Arab world, in addition to the official social media pages of Al-Azhar and Al-Azhar’s Grand Imam.

Sinai Bomb Attack Causes at Least 10 Casualties Among Egyptian Troops
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 1 May, 2020
An explosion hit a military armored convoy in the Sinai Peninsula Thursday, causing at least 10 casualties among soldiers who are participating in a campaign against extremists in the region, Egyptian authorities reported. Military spokesman Tamer Refai did not specify the number of soldiers killed by the improvised explosive device. But other officials said 10 soldiers died, including an officer, and three others suffered shrapnel wounds. The attack near the small Sinai town of Bir al-Abed occurred during Ramadan, after sundown when the faithful break their daily fast. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi gave his condolences in a statement posted on Facebook, praising the fallen soldiers as “heroes” and “martyrs.” There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack. For years, Egypt has been fighting the Sinai affiliate of ISIS in the border region. The campaign escalated in 2013. Most extremist attacks have occurred in northern Sinai, but militants have also struck at police officers, troops and other high-profile targets in the mainland. On April 14, an Egyptian police officer and seven militants were killed in a firefight in the capital of Cairo after the ministry of interior received information about potential Easter attacks against Coptic Christians, the interior ministry said. Three other policemen had also been wounded.

Rami Makhlouf Launches Counterattack after Syrian Regime Seizes his Assets
Damascus - London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 1 May, 2020
Rami Makhlouf, the cousin of Syrian President Bashar Assad, launched a counter attack on measures taken by the Syrian authorities to seize his assets, stressing his involvement in “charitable works.”“After reports about a donation we planned to make during the holy month of Ramadan to assist our people, things went out of control. We received threats to stop our work, simply because we dared to publically offer assistance to the needy, and because we announced financing the Al-Bustan Association,” Makhlouf wrote on his Facebook page. He asked, “Why the more grants we offer, the more the curse we receive?” Last year, Makhlouf was linked to financing pro-regime forces and their militias, mainly through Al-Bustan Association. “Since many years we have made donations to support our people.” The Syrian regime has ordered a series of measures against Makhlouf’s companies, including the Association, and his shares in the state-owned Syrian Telecom Company (Syriatel), the country’s biggest mobile phone company. The government’s Telecommunications and Postal Regulatory Authority informed two of Makhlouf’s companies, “Syriatel” and “MTN” mobile phone to pay about 234 billion Syrian pounds to the state treasury as a penalty. It set May 5 as a deadline for the two firms to comply with the decision. In case of failure of compliance within the specified time limit, the Authority said it would take all necessary legal measures to guarantee the rights of the public treasury. Official media quoted a Syrian economic researcher as saying that the amendment of the contracts with the two mobile companies has caused the loss of more than 338 billion pounds (482 million dollars) to the treasury. Last week, the Syrian Finance Ministry seized the assets of the “Abar Petroleum Service SAL offshore” company, which is registered in Beirut and manages the transfer of shipments of petroleum products, diesel, gasoline, and liquefied gas. Makhlouf is on the list of US sanctions for supporting the Damascus regime. The Syrian authorities accuse Makhlouf of violating the import rules by smuggling products worth 1.9 billion Syrian pounds without paying charges and fees. Makhlouf denies links to the company. The measures against Makhlouf come as part of a campaign launched last year by the Syrian regime to force entrepreneurs and businessmen to pay millions of dollars to the Central Bank to save the country from bankruptcy.

May Brings Reopenings around the Globe as Virus Toll Climbs
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 01/2020
May is bringing cautious reopenings from coronavirus lockdowns, from Beijing's Forbidden city to shopping malls in Texas, as the grim toll from the pandemic ticks higher. Many communities are inching toward normalcy without certainty over whether they've vanquished outbreaks of the virus. But bleak new figures released Thursday underscored the pain inflicted by the disease and added to pressure on leaders to end shutdowns.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits surpassed a staggering 30 million and the European economy shrank a record 3.8% in the first quarter as hotels, restaurants, construction sites and manufacturing were frozen by lockdowns. As bad as those and other numbers are, some are outdated because of the lag in gathering data so the true situation is almost certainly much worse.
Still, analysts saw hope in the way new unemployment claims have fallen for four straight weeks. Andrew Stettner, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation, said the wave of layoffs at vulnerable businesses such as restaurants, hotels and stores may have largely run its course.
"Thankfully, for now, the economic contagion seems to have plateaued," Stettner said. "But we're still at a level that is a mortal threat to the nation's financial well-being."Layoffs amount to 1 in 6 American workers and encompass more people than the entire population of Texas. Some economists say the U.S. unemployment rate for April may be as high as 20% — a figure not seen since the Depression of the 1930s, when joblessness peaked at 25%.
China's ancient, majestic Forbidden City reopened on Friday with all tickets for the May 1-5 holiday sold out, and a limit of 5,000 visitors a day, down from the earlier maximum of 80,000. The Chinese capital reopened its parks and museums, with controlled entries, about three months after hundreds of millions of people were ordered into a near lockdown as the coronavirus outbreak erupted in the central city of Wuhan.
China on Friday reported 12 new cases, six of them brought from overseas, and no new deaths for the 16th day. Beijing on Thursday downgraded its level of emergency response to the virus, but temperature checks and social distancing remain in force. In the U.S., where large numbers of people are still dying from COVID-19, health officials are warning of the danger of a second wave of infection, and some employers and employees have expressed fear of going back to work.Lacey Ward, an Omaha hairstylist, said she is worried that the Nebraska governor's decision to let salons reopen on May 4 could put her and her family at risk. She would prefer to collect unemployment until the danger subsides.
"I feel like we are literally the guinea pigs in this situation," she said.
Finding enough workers willing to return is proving to be a challenge for Jennifer Holliday, manager at a restaurant in Oklahoma City that will reopen its dining room Friday. Many of her employees are not returning calls or messages.
"There are some who want to just ride it out and take the unemployment," she said. In some states, authorities are more cautious: California Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered beaches in Orange County closed until further notice after tens of thousands of people flocked to the sand last weekend.
Still, many states and countries are pressing ahead, relaxing stay-at-home restrictions amid impatience among those who complain of lost livelihoods and say their rights are being trampled.
Beginning Friday, Louisiana restaurants except in hard-hit New Orleans are allowed to add outdoor tables, without wait staff, in a tiny step toward normalcy during the COVID-19 pandemic.
"I know people want to get out of the house now, after being cooped up. It'll be a safe way to do it. I hope. And it's still scary to a lot of people. So I'm not sure," said Mandy Perrilloux, a manager at the Trey Yuen Chinese restaurant in Mandeville, which moved a few tables to its koi pond and a waterfall garden.
Simon Property Group Inc., the biggest U.S. mall operator, plans to open 49 shopping centers Friday across 10 states, including Texas, Indiana and Georgia. Workers will wear masks and the numbers of shoppers will be limited. Some stores may just partially open at first or just have curbside pickup.
The Texas coronavirus death toll hit a single-day high of 50 Thursday as the state was preparing for a slow reboot by reopening retailers, restaurants, malls and movie theaters to limited numbers of customers. The 119 killed over the past three days marks the state's deadliest stretch.
Outside the U.S., shutdowns are winding down, with caution.
Malaysia will allow most business activities to resume Monday, while a ban on mass gatherings will remain, keeping schools and worship houses shut. Thailand was preparing to reopen parks and some retailers, hair salons and restaurants, while keeping a nighttime curfew and a ban on alcohol sales.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who recently recovered from COVID-19, said the U.K. is "past the peak" and "on a downward slope" in its outbreak but was expected to extend precautions, while Germany, Portugal and the Czech Republic were set to start loosening their restrictions.
In Australia, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the government wants more residents to download a COVIDSafe app to help track cases before its measures are eased.
"The coronavirus is still out there," he said. The app is needed to trace contacts and isolate people infected by the virus, and "We need that tool so we can open up the economy and that's why it's so important."
With signs that the outbreak has stabilized in places, and after news that the economy shrank at a 4.8% annual rate in the first three months of the year with a crushing 40% drop projected for this quarter, President Donald Trump chose not to extend the White House's social-distancing guidelines past their expiration Thursday. Those guidelines encouraged people to work from home and avoid restaurants, groups and nonessential travel.
Trump continued to speculate on the origins of the coronavirus, saying that China could have unleashed it on the world due to some kind of horrible "mistake" or that it might have been released intentionally. Intelligence agencies said they are still examining a notion put forward by the president and aides that the pandemic may have resulted from an accident at a Chinese lab. The virus has killed over 230,000 people worldwide, including more than 61,000 in the U.S., according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University. Confirmed infections globally topped 3.2 million, with 1 million of them in the U.S., but the true numbers are believed to be much higher because of limited testing, differences in counting the dead and concealment by some governments.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 01-02/2020
Special Report: Trump told Saudi: Cut oil supply or lose U.S. military support - sources
Timothy Gardner, Steve Holland, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Rania El Gamal/Reuters//May 01/2020
WASHINGTON/LONDON/DUBAI (Reuters) - As the United States pressed Saudi Arabia to end its oil price war with Russia, President Donald Trump gave Saudi leaders an ultimatum.
In an April 2 phone call, Trump told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that unless the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) started cutting oil production, he would be powerless to stop lawmakers from passing legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from the kingdom, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
The threat to upend a 75-year strategic alliance, which has not been previously reported, was central to the U.S. pressure campaign that led to a landmark global deal to slash oil supply as demand collapsed in the coronavirus pandemic - scoring a diplomatic victory for the White House.
Trump delivered the message to the crown prince 10 days before the announcement of production cuts. The kingdom’s de facto leader was so taken aback by the threat that he ordered his aides out of the room so he could continue the discussion in private, according to a U.S. source who was briefed on the discussion by senior administration officials.
The effort illustrated Trump’s strong desire to protect the U.S. oil industry from a historic price meltdown as governments shut down economies worldwide to fight the virus. It also reflected a telling reversal of Trump’s longstanding criticism of the oil cartel, which he has blasted for raising energy costs for Americans with supply cuts that usually lead to higher gasoline prices. Now, Trump was asking OPEC to slash output.
A senior U.S. official told Reuters that the administration notified Saudi leaders that, without production cuts, “there would be no way to stop the U.S. Congress from imposing restrictions that could lead to a withdrawal of U.S. forces.” The official summed up the argument, made through various diplomatic channels, as telling Saudi leaders: “We are defending your industry while you’re destroying ours.”
Reuters asked Trump about the talks in an interview Wednesday evening at the White House, at which the president addressed a range of topics involving the pandemic. Asked if he told the crown prince that the U.S. might pull forces out of Saudi Arabia, Trump said, “I didn’t have to tell him.”
“I thought he and President Putin, Vladimir Putin, were very reasonable,” Trump said. “They knew they had a problem, and then this happened.”
Asked what he told the Crown Prince Mohammed, Trump said: “They were having a hard time making a deal. And I met telephonically with him, and we were able to reach a deal” for production cuts, Trump said.
Saudi Arabia’s government media office did not respond to a request for comment. A Saudi official who asked not to be named stressed that the agreement represented the will of all countries in the so-called OPEC+ group of oil-producing nations, which includes OPEC plus a coalition led by Russia.
“Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia have played an important role in the OPEC+ oil cut agreement, but without the cooperation of the 23 countries who took part in the agreement, it would not have happened,” said the Saudi official, who declined to comment on the discussions between U.S. and Saudi leaders.
The week before Trump’s phone call with Crown Prince Mohammed, U.S. Republican Senators Kevin Cramer and Dan Sullivan had introduced legislation to remove all U.S. troops, Patriot missiles and anti-missile defense systems from the kingdom unless Saudi Arabia cut oil output. Support for the measure was gaining momentum amid Congressional anger over the ill-timed Saudi-Russia oil price war. The kingdom had opened up the taps in April, unleashing a flood of crude into the global supply after Russia refused to deepen production cuts in line with an earlier OPEC supply pact.
On April 12, under pressure from Trump, the world’s biggest oil-producing nations outside the United States agreed to the largest production cut ever negotiated. OPEC, Russia and other allied producers slashed production by 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 10% of global output. Half that volume came from cuts of 2.5 million bpd each by Saudi Arabia and Russia, whose budgets depend on high oil-and-gas revenues.
Despite the agreement to cut a tenth of global production, oil prices continued to fall to historic lows. U.S. oil futures dropped below $0 last week as sellers paid buyers to avoid taking delivery of oil they had no place to store. Brent futures, the global oil benchmark, fell towards $15 per barrel - a level not seen since the 1999 oil price crash – from as high as $70 at the start of the year.
The deal for supply cuts could eventually boost prices, however, as governments worldwide start to open their economies and fuel demand rises with increased travel. Whatever the impact, the negotiations mark an extraordinary display of U.S. influence over global oil output.
Cramer, the Republican senator from North Dakota, told Reuters he spoke to Trump about the legislation to withdraw U.S. military protection from Saudi Arabia on March 30, three days before the president called Crown Prince Mohammed.
Asked whether Trump told Saudi Arabia it could lose U.S. military support, U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette told Reuters the president reserved the right to use every tool to protect U.S. producers, including “our support for their defense needs.”
The strategic partnership dates back to 1945, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt met with Saudi King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud on the USS Quincy, a Navy cruiser. They reached a deal: U.S. military protection in exchange for access to Saudi oil reserves. Today, the United States has about three thousand troops in the country, and the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet protects oil exports from the region.
Saudi Arabia relies on the United States for weapons and protection against regional rivals such as Iran. The kingdom’s vulnerabilities, however, were exposed late last year in an attack by 18 drones and three missiles on key Saudi oil facilities. Washington blamed Iran; Tehran denied it.
THIRTEEN ANGRY SENATORS
Trump initially welcomed lower oil prices, saying cheap gasoline prices were akin to a tax cut for drivers.
That changed after Saudi Arabia announced in mid-March it would pump a record 12.3 million bpd – unleashing the price war with Russia. The explosion of supply came as governments worldwide issued stay-home orders - crushing fuel demand - and made clear that U.S. oil companies would be hit hard in the crude price collapse. Senators from U.S. oil states were infuriated.
On March 16, Cramer was among 13 Republican senators who sent a letter to Crown Prince Mohammed reminding him of Saudi Arabia’s strategic reliance on Washington. The group also urged Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to investigate whether Saudi Arabia and Russia were breaking international trade laws by flooding the U.S. market with oil.
On March 18, the senators – a group that included Sullivan of Alaska and Ted Cruz of Texas – held a rare call with Princess Reema bint Bandar bin Sultan, the Saudi ambassador to the United States. Cramer called the conversations “brutal” as each senator detailed the damage to their states’ oil industries.
“She heard it from every senator; there was nobody that held back,” Cramer told Reuters.
The Saudi embassy did not respond to requests for comment.
Cramer said the princess relayed their comments to officials in Saudi Arabia, including the energy minister. The senators told the princess that the kingdom faced rising opposition in the Senate to the Saudi-led coalition that is waging a war in Yemen against Houthi rebels.
Saudi and U.S. officials have said the Houthis are armed by Iran, which Tehran denies. The backing of Senate Republicans over Yemen had proved crucial for Saudi Arabia last year. The Senate upheld Trump vetoes of several measures seeking to end U.S. weapons sales and other military support to Saudi Arabia amid outrage over the Yemen conflict, which has caused more than 100,000 deaths and triggered a humanitarian crisis.
Cramer said he made a phone call to Trump on March 30, about a week after he and Sullivan introduced their bill to pull U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia. The president called Cramer back the same day with Energy Secretary Brouillette, senior economic adviser Larry Kudlow and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on the call, the senator said.
“I said the one person that you don’t have on the call that can be very helpful is Mark Esper,” the defense secretary, Cramer recounted, saying he wanted Esper to address how U.S. military assets in Saudi Arabia might be moved elsewhere in the region to protect U.S. troops.
The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment on whether Esper was involved in discussions of pulling military assets out of Saudi Arabia.
BENDING THE KNEE
Trump’s oil diplomacy came in a whirlwind of calls with Saudi King Salman, Crown Prince Mohammed and Russian President Vladimir Putin starting in mid-March. The Kremlin confirmed Putin’s conversation with Trump and said they discussed both oil supply cuts and the coronavirus pandemic.
On the April 2 call with Prince Mohammed, Trump told the Saudi ruler he was going to “cut them off” the next time Congress pushed a proposal to end Washington’s defense of the kingdom, according to the source with knowledge of the call. Trump also publicly threatened in early April to impose tariffs on oil imports from Saudi Arabia and Russia.
After the conversation with the Saudi crown prince, and another the same day with Putin, Trump tweeted that he expected Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut output by about 10 million barrels, which “will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!”
Riyadh and Moscow later confirmed they had restarted negotiations.
On April 3, Trump hosted a meeting at the White House with senators Cramer, Cruz, and Sullivan, and oil executives from companies including Exxon Mobil Corp, Chevron Corp, Occidental Petroleum Corp and Continental Resources.
During the public portion of the meeting, Cramer told Trump that Washington can use the billions of dollars it spends defending Saudi Arabia on other military priorities “if our friends are going to treat us this way.”
The prospect of losing U.S. military protection made the royal family “bend at the knees” and bow to Trump’s demands, a Middle Eastern diplomat told Reuters.
After prolonged and fractious negotiations, top producers pledged their record output cut of 9.7 million bpd in May and June, with the understanding that economic forces would lead to about 10 million bpd in further cuts in production from other countries, including the United States and Canada.
Trump hailed the deal and cast himself as its broker. “Having been involved in the negotiations, to put it mildly, the number that OPEC+ is looking to cut is 20 Million Barrels a day…” he tweeted shortly after the deal.
Riyadh also took credit. Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz told Reuters at the time that the crown prince had been “instrumental in formulating this deal.”
*Reporting by Timothy Gardner and Steve Holland in Washington, Dmitry Zhdannikov in London and Rania El Gamal in Dubai; additional reporting by Alexandra Alper and Humeyra Pamuk in Washington, and Marwa Rashad in Riyadh; writing by Michael Georgy; editing by Richard Valdmanis and Brian Thevenot

Iran Is Hauling Gold Bars Out of Venezuela’s Almost-Empty Vaults
Patricia Laya and Ben Bartenstein/Bloomberg/May 01/2020
Out of cash and desperate for help in propping up its oil industry, Venezuela is raiding its gold vaults and handing tons of bars to its long-time ally Iran, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter.
Government officials piled some 9 tons of gold -- an amount equal to about $500 million -- on Tehran-bound jets this month as payment for Iran’s assistance in reviving Venezuela’s crippled gasoline refineries, the people said. The shipments, which resulted in a sudden drop in Venezuela’s published foreign reserve figures, leave the crisis-ravaged country with just $6.3 billion in hard-currency assets, the lowest amount in three decades.
The two nations -- both pariahs of sorts in international circles -- are working more closely together as they try to withstand withering U.S. sanctions and a coronavirus-sparked collapse in the price of oil, their main source of revenue. For Iran, the deals provide a fresh source of revenue. For Venezuela, they ensure that its supply of gasoline doesn’t totally run out.
Iran is the latest destination for Venezuelan gold after the U.S. cracked down on similar deals that the Nicolas Maduro regime was conducting with Russia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.
The sanctioned Tehran-based carrier Mahan Air has flown more than half a dozen jets to the South American nation in the past week alone. Most delivered gasoline additives, parts and technicians to help repair a key refinery along Venezuela’s northwestern coast. Meanwhile, Mahan has sent other planes to the international airport outside of Caracas, where they are loaded with the gold bars to take back to Tehran, said the people, who asked not to be named because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly about the transactions.
A press official with Venezuela’s central bank, which holds the gold, didn’t respond to requests for comment, nor did officials at Venezuela’s Information Ministry or Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Iran Is Helping Sanctions-Choked Venezuela With a Gasoline Fix
As oil prices collapse, the gold held in Caracas is a now an even more important source of wealth for Venezuela, which has been driven into extreme poverty under Maduro’s socialist rule. While the country holds some 70 tons of gold in its vaults, selling it has become increasingly difficult.
When Maduro’s predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez, was in power, he and Iran’s then-leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad cut deals on a variety of energy, agricultural and financial projects. They even opened a joint car assembly plant west of Caracas.
After a brief -- and rare respite -- Venezuela’s currency is once again in free fall and inflation has started picking back up, with the annual rate climbing to about 3,500%, according to a Bloomberg index. A strict quarantine to fight the coronavirus pandemic is beginning to show cracks and the risk of greater social unrest is growing as Venezuela frantically tries to secure food and fuel.
With much of the central bank staff self-isolated at home, the transport of the gold bars into armored cars to be taken to the airport was discrete and conducted by employees and heavily armed security officials from the vaults located in downtown Caracas, according to the people familiar with the matter.
The gold and remaining central bank assets are part of a larger battle for control of Venezuela’s finances between Maduro and Juan Guaido, the National Assembly leader who is trying to install a transitional government with the support of the U.S. as well as Latin American and European nations.
— With assistance by Alex Vasquez, and Nicolle Yapur

China’s Coronavirus Disinformation Campaigns Are Integral to Its Global Information Warfare Strategy
Mathew Ha/Alice Cho/FDD/May 01/2020
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) successfully coerced the European Union into toning down criticism of China in an April 24 report that documents disinformation operations related to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is one of many examples of Beijing’s attempts to dominate the international narrative surrounding COVID-19, an objective integral to its broader information warfare strategy.
A primary objective driving the CCP’s disinformation campaign is to push speculation that COVID-19 originated outside of China. The Taiwanese government reported last month that the CCP exploited proxy accounts and bots to disseminate false stories on numerous social media platforms around the world.
Chinese government officials have participated publicly in these campaigns. For example, Zhao Lijian, a Chinese diplomat, shared a conspiracy theory online accusing a U.S. Army service member of bringing the virus to China. The United States is not the only target of China’s blame-shifting. Earlier in the year, Chinese state-run media outlets falsely claimed that COVID-19 originated in South Korea and Italy.
The Chinese government’s disinformation operations also seek to suppress and disavow international criticism regarding Beijing’s early policy failures that likely magnified the scale of the crisis. CCP propaganda outlets shift the blame for the outbreak’s rapid escalation by pointing to the alleged mishandling of the crisis by the United States and other Western countries.
According to Lea Gabrielle of the U.S. State Department’s Global Engagement Center, which focuses on information warfare threats, the CCP is “unleashing a steady drumbeat of pro-PRC content” across its domestic and international media networks to project an image of China – in contrast to democratic countries such as the United States – as the responsible global health leader.
It is important to note, however, that the CCP’s disinformation efforts precede the current pandemic, as disinformation campaigns are only one component of Beijing’s broader three warfares strategy – psychological, legal, and media warfare. This multifaceted strategy, which the Chinese military explicitly outlined in its 2003 Political Work Guidelines, reflects Beijing’s constant efforts to influence domestic and international perception of the CCP and stifle its adversaries’ ability to respond.
This whole-of-government effort is evident in the Chinese government’s reliance on its diplomats to directly influence foreign governments and their reporting of COVID-19. For instance, the German Interior Ministry revealed that Chinese diplomats urged Berlin to report favorably on Beijing’s COVID-19 response efforts. The German government noted it will not comply with China’s demand. Nevertheless, Berlin has yet to publicly criticize Beijing for its disinformation operations, which certainly benefits Beijing. Similarly, the Chinese ambassador to Australia threatened Canberra with economic retaliation if Australia pursued an independent inquiry into the COVID-19 pandemic, which likely would reveal Beijing’s policy failures during the crisis.
Similarly, the Chinese government solidified its disproportionate influence over the World Health Organization (WHO) to shape and steer WHO messaging and policies in favor of China’s national interest. For example, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO’s director general, has consistently praised Beijing’s “effective” response to this crisis. Yet Tedros never criticized the CCP for suppressing whistleblowers and ignoring the WHO’s recommendations regarding how to stop the spread of COVID-19. Tedros’ silence contrasts starkly with the response of former WHO Director General Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland during the SARS outbreak of 2003, when Brundtland publicly criticized the Chinese government for similar misdeeds.
Beijing has also increased humanitarian and medical aid worldwide, seeking both to validate its image as a generous benefactor and to establish dependent relationships with foreign governments. This has allowed Beijing to indirectly shape several foreign governments’ messaging regarding China and COVID-19. Most notably, as mentioned above, the European Union delayed and then toned down its report documenting China’s disinformation operations, after Beijing warned that such a report would “be very bad for cooperation” between the European Union and China. EU representatives noted their fear that the Chinese government would withhold future medical aid if they provided a more critical yet factually accurate report.
Beijing’s whole-of-government approach to shaping a global narrative of China’s indispensable leadership in the COVID-19 fight underscores Beijing’s ambition to upend the United States as a global leader even after this crisis passes. If the CCP’s persistent efforts remain unchecked, the United States indeed risks losing credibility in the eyes of governments worldwide. It is imperative that the United States counter the CCP’s disinformation and influence activities both at home and abroad.
Moving forward, the U.S. government should actively share public notices and advisories with its own populace that disclose facts and concrete evidence of CCP social media and disinformation schemes. To effectively accomplish this, Washington should exchange information with social media companies such as Facebook, Google, Microsoft, and Twitter, which have regularly collected data regarding Beijing’s disinformation campaigns on their sites.
Finally, the United States should develop a comprehensive strategy to counter China’s efforts to dominate international organizations such as the WHO. The United States should coordinate with its allies and partners to unify their diplomatic messaging in order to challenge and disavow Beijing’s deception. While the COVID-19 pandemic is causing enough immediate problems and challenges for the world, ignoring Beijing’s disinformation efforts could haunt the United States and the world once this crisis ends.
*Mathew Ha is a research analyst focused on North Korea and China at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Alice Cho is a research intern. Mathew and Alice both contribute to FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). For more analysis from Mathew and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Mathew on Twitter @MatJunsuk. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

COVID-19 in Qatar
Varsha Koduvayur/FDD//May 01/2020
As Qatar’s COVID-19 epidemic worsens, the country’s dismal human rights record has returned to the spotlight. Doha has locked down crowded labor camps that house expatriate workers, leaving them few options to protect their health amid an outbreak that is among the world’s worst on a per capita basis.
Situation Overview
As of April 30, Qatar has reported 13,409 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 10 fatalities. The number of cases doubled roughly every eight days during the month of April, so the country now has one of the highest per capita caseloads in the world, comparable to Spain and ahead of Italy. Qatar’s daily infection numbers are skyrocketing, with authorities reporting 518 new cases on April 21, 761 new cases on April 24, and 929 new cases on April 26. After announcing that it tested almost 86,000 people and “doubled” its efforts to track coronavirus transmission chains, the Ministry of Public Health predicts that Qatar’s epidemic has begun to peak and that the infection rate will soon begin to decline.
While Qatar’s initial cases came from Iran, authorities attribute most of the new cases to expatriate workers who came into contact with infected individuals. In mid-March, Qatar locked down an industrial area in Doha populated mostly by expatriate workers. The move effectively trapped hundreds of thousands of workers in cramped conditions, which can feature eight to 10 men in a single room. After extending the lockdown on April 1, Doha announced last week that the government would gradually lift its lockdown, but has yet to do so.
COVID-19 in the Greater Middle East
Country Cases Deaths
Turkey 120,204 3,174
Iran 94,640 6,028
Saudi Arabia 22,753 162
Pakistan 16,117 358
Israel 15,870 219
Qatar 13,409 10
UAE 12,481 105
Egypt 5,537 392
Morocco 4,359 168
Kuwait 4,024 26
Algeria 4,006 450
Bahrain 3,037 8
Oman 2,348 11
Afghanistan 2,171 64
Iraq 2,003 92
Tunisia 980 40
Lebanon 725 24
Somalia 601 28
Jordan 453 8
Sudan 375 28
W. Bank & Gaza 344 2
Libya 61 2
Syria 43 3
Yemen 6 2
Source: JHU Coronavirus Resource Center
Data current as of 1:30 PM, April 30, 2020.
Implications
Qatar’s lockdown of the Doha industrial area reflects a broader trend. Like other Gulf countries, Qatar relies heavily on foreign labor for the bulk of its workforce, particularly in sectors such as construction and domestic services. The country’s roughly 2 million expatriate workers comprise over 88 percent of the population and 95 percent of the labor force. And while Qatari citizens enjoy comfortable public sector jobs and an average annual income of $125,000, expatriate workers are subject to exploitative conditions, poor pay, inadequate worker protections, and even forced labor and human trafficking.
This pattern of mistreatment has carried over to the COVID-19 crisis. In mid-March, for example, Qatari authorities forcibly detained hundreds of Nepali workers under the pretext of testing for COVID-19, only to summarily deport them without allowing them to gather their belongings or collect their pay.
The latest lockdown threatens to trigger a crisis given workers’ squalid living conditions. Authorities have barred the workers from exiting or entering the camp and deployed police to enforce the perimeter. As one worker put it, “The situation is getting worse each day… [M]y friends who live there are in extreme panic.” Another expat stated, “[C]rowding is the problem, and washing hands is almost unrealistic.”
What to Watch for
If COVID-19 cases continue to increase in the country, the treatment of Qatar’s expatriate workers could worsen. Although the emirate has allocated more than $800 million to help companies pay their employees and has shortened the workday to quell the virus’ spread, many foreign workers’ rights are still an open question, particularly given Qatar’s extremely poor track record.
*Varsha Koduvayur is a senior research analyst focusing on the Gulf at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where she also contributes to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from Varsha and CEFP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Varsha on Twitter @varshakoduvayur. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

PLO's Program of Deception and Lies
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/May 01/2020
"The PLO recognizes the right of the State of Israel to exist in peace and security... accepts United Nations Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338... commits itself... to a peaceful resolution of the conflict between the two sides... the PLO renounces the use of terrorism and other acts of violence... the PLO affirms that those articles of the Palestinian Covenant which deny Israel's right to exist... are now inoperative and no longer valid." — Letter from former PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat to former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, September 9, 1993.
Why do the Palestinians still need an organization called the Palestine Liberation Organization whose declared goal is the "liberation of Palestine" through armed struggle? The presence of the PLO bluntly contradicts Arafat's letter in which he claims that the PLO "recognizes the right of the State of Israel to exist in peace and security" and "renounces the use of terrorism and other acts of violence."
If the PLO did recognize Israel's right to exist, why does its largest faction, Fatah, continue to refer to areas inside Israel as "occupied" territory? ... They openly say and show that they consider all of the land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River as "occupied" territories that need to be "liberated." This wording lays bare the straightforward lies of the PLO and Arafat about their ostensible support for the two-state solution. At least they should get credit for being honest about what they want.
The actions and rhetoric of PLO leaders demonstrate without a shred of doubt that they have not fulfilled any of the promises made by PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat when he signed the Oslo Accord in 1993. PLO leaders still do not recognize Israel's right to exist, and they continue to engage in terrorism, glorify terrorists and pay regular financial tributes to their families. Pictured: Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin (left), U.S. President Bill Clinton (center) and Arafat at the signing of the Oslo Accord at the White House in Washington, DC, on September 13, 1993. (Vince Musi/The White House/Wikimedia Commons)
Palestinian officials are again threatening to revoke their recognition of Israel's right to exist -- this time if the Israeli government extends Israeli sovereignty to any part of the West Bank. These officials, in short, are saying that the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), an organization founded in 1964 with the purpose of the "liberation of Palestine" through armed struggle, will no longer honor the letter former PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat sent to Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin on September 9, 1993. In that letter, Arafat wrote:
"The PLO recognizes the right of the State of Israel to exist in peace and security... accepts United Nations Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338... commits itself... to a peaceful resolution of the conflict between the two sides... the PLO renounces the use of terrorism and other acts of violence... the PLO affirms that those articles of the Palestinian Covenant which deny Israel's right to exist... are now inoperative and no longer valid."
Has the PLO ever abided by Arafat's letter in the first place?
The actions and rhetoric of PLO leaders demonstrate without a shred of doubt that they have not fulfilled any of the promises Arafat made. PLO leaders still do not recognize Israel's right to exist, and they continue to engage in terrorism, glorify terrorists and pay regular financial tributes to their families.
Moreover, the PLO's claim that it had cancelled articles of the Palestinian Covenant that call for Israel's destruction was also proven to be a sham.
The continued existence of the PLO to this day is an indication that the Palestinian leadership has not given up its desire to eliminate Israel.
The Oslo Accords led to the establishment of the Palestinian Authority (PA), an interim self-government body designated to have exclusive control over security-related and civilian affairs of the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The PA has a president, Mahmoud Abbas, and a government that continues to manage the affairs of the Palestinians.
While the PA cabinet has authority over the civilian and security affairs of the Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the PLO is responsible for Palestinians worldwide and has an "executive committee," which serves as a second Palestinian cabinet. This committee's functions include: representing the Palestinian people, supervising the various PLO institutions, executing the policies and decisions of the PLO leadership, and handling the PLO's financial issues.
In addition, the PA and PLO each has its own parliament.
Why do the Palestinians need two separate governing bodies, particularly at a time when they continue to complain about economic hardship and a decline in financial aid from donor countries?
More significantly, why do the Palestinians still need an organization called the Palestine Liberation Organization whose declared goal is the "liberation of Palestine" through armed struggle? The presence of the PLO bluntly contradicts Arafat's letter in which he claims that the PLO "recognizes the right of the State of Israel to exist in peace and security" and "renounces the use of terrorism and other acts of violence."
It is worth pointing out that the emblem of the PLO features a map of "Palestine from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River" that totally covers present-day Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Despite Arafat's claim that the organization "recognizes the right of the State of Israel to exist in peace and security," the PLO continues to use this message.
PLO leaders who are now threatening to revoke recognition of Israel need look no further than at their own emblem to see that their organization is continuing to deceive the world. If the PLO was sincere about honoring Arafat's pledge, it could at least have replaced a map that denies Israel's existence. If the PLO was sincere about implementing Arafat's letter, it could have should have dismantled itself back in 1993, immediately after its former leader claimed that the organization recognized the right of the State of Israel "to exist in peace and security."
If the PLO did recognize Israel's right to exist, why does its largest faction, Fatah, continue to refer to areas inside Israel as "occupied" territory? Just last week, Fatah posted on its Facebook page a photo of Muslims praying in the "occupied city of Jaffa" near Tel Aviv. If a city inside Israel is "occupied," this implies that the PLO and Fatah do not believe in Israel's right to exist: they openly say and show that they consider all of the land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River as "occupied" territories that need to be "liberated." This wording lays bare the straightforward lies of the PLO and Arafat about their ostensible support for the two-state solution. At least they should get credit for being honest about what they want.
Recognizing Israel, however, is not the only promise the PLO has failed to fulfill after the signing of the Oslo Accords. Arafat's claim that the organization would renounce terrorism and other acts of violence is yet another example of how PLO leaders continue to engage in deception.
Several PLO groups, including Abbas's ruling Fatah faction, have carried out scores of terrorist attacks against Israel since Arafat wrote his letter to Rabin. Many of these attacks were carried out during what is called the Second Intifada (2000-2005).
Last week, the Jerusalem District Court ruled that the PA must pay $150 million to Israeli families who were the victims of Palestinian terrorism. The case was filed by the Israel Law Center ("Shurat HaDin"), an Israeli organization representing 17 complaints covering 34 fatalities and seven injuries all of which date back to that time. Last year, the court ruled that the PA was responsible for terrorist attacks committed during that period.
The head of the Israel Law Center, Nitsana Darshan-Leitner, said the ruling proved that the Second Intifada "was not a popular uprising, but a planned and deliberate war against the civilian population of Israel." She added: "What Arafat did not achieve through the Oslo Accords, he tried to achieve through suicide bombings and shootings. The Palestinian cause was genocide against Jews in Israel."
Despite warnings by Israel, the PA and its leaders have pledged to continue paying regular financial tributes and allowances to the families of Palestinian terrorists. "The salaries of our martyrs, prisoners, and wounded are a red line," Abbas said in an interview with Palestine TV in October 2018.
"They [Israelis] try by all means, and exert pressure by all means, and they continue to exert. The martyrs and their families are sacred, and so are the wounded and the prisoners. We must pay all of them. If one penny remains in our hands it is for them and not for the living."
So much for Arafat's pledge to renounce terrorism and all acts of violence against Israel.
Finally, the false claim that the PLO had removed from its charter the clauses that describe the establishment of Israel as "entirely illegal" and that strongly urge the "liberation of Palestine" is contradicted by none other than PLO leaders themselves.
Shortly after the claim was made in 1998, a number of PLO officials were quick to clarify that the covenant had not been altered.
Ziad Abu Zayyad, a senior PLO official, explained: "Israel must not demand that the PLO alter its covenant, just as the PLO does not demand that the Jewish nation cancel the Bible." (Speech to the American Jewish Federation, October 23, 1993).
Tayseer Qaba, deputy chairman of the PLO's National Council, said: "We have no intention of changing or nullifying the Covenant; rather, we will adhere to it until our last breath since it embodies the essence of our demands." (A-Nahar, September 19, 1995).
Secretary-General of the PLO's Arab Liberation Front Abu Abbas also denied that the covenant had been changed:
"The [Palestinian] National Council did not vote to annul the Covenant, but rather announced its readiness to change the Covenant under certain terms. If the terms are met, it will be amended. Otherwise, the Covenant will remain as is. The Covenant has yet to be changed, and this is better understood by the [Israeli] enemy than by our own people." (Al-Bilad, June 11, 1998).
If and when the PLO announces its decision to revoke its recognition of Israel, the leaders of the organization need to be exposed for their program of unremitting lies over the past three decades. Since 1993, the PLO leadership has done everything in its power to prove that Arafat's letter to Rabin was not worth the paper it was written on.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
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Mullahs Threaten Trump with October Surprise
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/May 01/2020
With the Khomeinist regime once again in deep trouble, the usual suspects launch a campaign to portray the Islamic Republic as victim and US President Donald Trump as oppressor.
Slowly the blame is shifting from the mullahs to the Trump administration as the debate is redirected to tackle the hypothetical question of US military action rather than the Islamic Republic's real misdeeds.
"No War on Iran" placards are appearing where "No wars by Iran" would make more sense.
The attempt at fabricating another "cause" with which to bash America is backed by the claim that the mullahs are behaving badly because Trump refuses to talk to them, although he has repeatedly said he is prepared to talk anywhere anytime.
Eleven Democratic senators have written to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling for an end to “maximum pressure” which, with no evidence, they claim is the chief, if not the only, source of Islamic Republic’s sorry state today.
For his part, the Democratic Party’s presumptive presidential nominee Joe Biden has called for the US to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the witches’ brew that President Barack Obama dished out to bypass international law and the US Congress.
Those calling for the lifting of sanctions offer four arguments.
Some insist that Tehran deserves help because of the coronavirus crisis.
Senator Diane Feinstein (D-California) says we cannot let people die by preventing Tehran from securing a $5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) because of a US veto.
The fact that Tehran’s application is still under study by IMF and that no US veto has been cast is ignored. The lobby supporting Tehran wants the mullahs to be exempt from even routine banking rules. Their message is: Give the mullahs cash and ask no questions!
However, Khomeinist leaders say loud and clear that they don’t need any outside help to deal with the coronavirus and that, on the contrary, they are giving aid to anyone who asks for it. President Hassan Rouhani says that the Islamic Republic has already helped a dozen countries, among them the People’s Republic of China. Tehran has also given assistance to the Mayor of London Saddiq Khan, a Muslim, to cope with the coronavirus in a city where Muslims form a substantial portion of the population.
Islamic Health Minister Sa’id Namaki says Tehran was never short of “whatever needed” to cope with the virus or cover other medical need.
Surena Sattari, Rouhani’s aide for technology, says the Islamic Republic is producing “all equipment needed at a fraction of the cost in Western countries”.
Fars News Agency, run by the Revolutionary Guards, reports that Iran is exporting coronavirus testing kits; masks and other equipment to a dozen countries. Rouhani throws in the tantalizing tale that Iran may be the first to develop a vaccine against Covid-19, ahead of the American “Great Stan” and the Israeli “little Satan.”
Last March, Tehran arrested and expelled a team of Doctors without Borders form France who came to fight the coronavirus.
In other words, the Islamic Republic doesn’t need medical and technical help; it needs crisp greenbacks that could be spent on Hezbollah; Bashar al-Assad, the Popular Mobilization Forces, the Houthis; Hamas and other members of the “Resistance Front”. And, then, not to forget the $100 million Tehran has allocated for lobbyists in the US.
The second argument is that if Tehran is pressed too hard it may denounce the JCPOA and even exist from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).
The answer to that is: So what?
The JCPOA has already been violated by all participants. Tehran has officially suspended complying with some key parts. The US, under Obama, was committed to buy Iran’s stock of plutonium through Westinghouse, a company that went bust; but never did. Russia was committed to buying Iran’s stock of uranium enriched up to 20 percent but stopped doing so after only half was shipped out. China was committed to re-design and recommission the nuclear plant in Arak. But five years later it hasn’t, clinging to flimsy excuses. Britain, France and Germany, were committed to help Iran revive its foreign trade and gain access to capital markets. So far, however, they have only arranged a $7 million package for Iran to buy medical supplies it claims it doesn’t need.
A “deal” that none of its participants respects seems to be more of a confidence-trick than genuine diplomacy.
As for the Islamic Republic leaving, or with some shenanigans, half-leaving, the NPT, the “so what” mentioned above could be repeated more loudly.
If the mullahs wish to develop a nuclear arsenal they would not be stopped by JCPOA and/or NPT. Nor would possession of a nuclear arsenal ultimately save their weird system.
The old Soviet Union had enough nuclear weapons to destroy planet earth 22 times over, and, yet, it collapsed under the weight of its contradictions without opponents firing a shot.
The mullahs have used the nuclear blackmail to confuse adversaries.
On the one hand they say they will never make a bomb because it is “haram” (forbidden). On the other they imply unless they are helped to pursue their misdeeds they would do just that.
In other words, they say: Reward me for not doing what I never wanted to do anyway!
The reward they want, and people like Senator Feinstein seem ready to provide, is to get a free hand in building an ideological empire as a springboard for “exporting” revolution. In the end either Iran must become like the rest of the Middle East or the rest of the Middle East must become like the Islamic Republic.
The third argument is that the embargo imposed by the United Nations on sale of arms to Iran will end in October and, unless “maximum pressure” is eased; the mullahs may rush to buy weapons.
That argument, too, is hollow.
Who is going to sell them arms?
Hopefully, not the US, or France and Britain. Russia may. But even then Russia has always looked for a weak Iran on its doorsteps. President Vladimir Putin sold Tehran an air defense system for $800 million but delivered the obsolete version of S-300, keeping the upgraded version for India and Turkey among others.
Even then, where would Tehran find the money?
Unable to sell oil even at current low prices, the mullahs won’t have much to spend on arms. China, of course, could, and because it sits on $22 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, it might not face payment problems. But switching to Chinese arms might require years of redesigning Iran’s Defense Doctrine when the current regime’s survival policy is internally challenged on a day to day basis.
The fourth argument is that unless Trump yields, the mullahs might produce an “October Surprise”, just days before voting, to derail his re-election, by testing a nuclear device or capturing some American hostages or even seizing a US Navy vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.
Well, that is what a “think tank” in Brussels is peddling, with a nod and a wink from “The New York Boys” in Tehran.

The Pandemic is Receding and so is Populism!
Akram Bunni/Asharq Al Awsat/May 01/2020
There is no doubt that the coronavirus pandemic will eventually recede, and societies will halt its spread one by one. The implications of the pandemic, however, will not stop. It will have implications on the current global scene and its political, economic, military and cultural relations, and on the future of extremist populist movements that have risen in the last few years and whose leaders have reached power in several countries.
With the rapid spread of this pandemic and the consequent self-centered and individualistic precautionary measures that most countries have adopted, such as self-isolation and closing borders, many have started to have doubts about globalization and the future of humanity as one space. This has dragged people toward populist conclusions and slogans that doubt the strength of human connections that the telecommunications revolution and the movement of capital and information have imposed. After some time, however, the opposite appeared, and this “international virus” restored the unity of the world and the interdependence of the fates of different societies. It is not imprudent to say that the most manifest implications of the pandemic are exposing the superficiality of ruling populist movements after they failed to confront the pandemic and to limit its impact.
If some of the foundations of populist thought are its rejection of human rights, fueling racism, demonizing people from different races or religions and inciting fear and hatred against them, and undermining the values of equality, tolerance and respect, the coronavirus pandemic is different in that it infects and kills without discrimination based on sex, religion or ethnicity.
If we remember the spirit of animosity against refugees escaping violence that stained European populists and the hate campaign against Mexican and Muslim immigrants and immigrants from ethnic minorities that still dominates the US president’s politics, we can say that there is no longer any motivation to mobilize people based on fear of the other given the blind spread of the virus that does not discriminate. If we also consider the substantial role that social media has played and still plays during social distancing and isolation allowing millions of people to follow the tragedies happening all over the world, we can explain the notable recession in populist discourse inciting hatred toward the other, and the rise of feelings of solidarity between people and empathy toward the tragedies they and their human brethren are suffering.
On the other hand, the pandemic has exposed the populists’ resilience toward reason and knowledge and how they undermined scientific warnings about how dangerous the coronavirus is, which delayed many countries, most prominently the US, to start taking effective measures against the virus, leading to many avoidable losses.
The pandemic forced people to prioritize scientific research and reasonable judgement and led to a decline in the populist discourse that had long played on peoples’ instincts and employed myths, legends and delusions. Scientific facts and deductions have exposed populist movements that used contradictory and superficial statements meant to obscure the truth and instead used conspiracy theories or religion to explain the pandemic. This forced some populist leaders to retreat from the naive statements that they had previously made. Nobody can forget the British prime minister’s statement about the pandemic and the number of people that this “herd immunity” and “survival of the fittest” would have killed?! One also cannot forget the US president’s disturbed performance and how contradictory his positions were in understanding and explaining the spread of the virus: whether how he quickly undermined how dangerous its effects will be, his false promises about there being a successful cure or vaccine, his most recent statement about using household disinfectants to kill the virus or his repeated accusations against China for being responsible for what is happening in a bid to justify his inability and delay in taking serious steps to stop the pandemic.
Perhaps without this pandemic, it would have been difficult to closely examine how decisions are made and crises are dealt with, or to expose the many common features, especially the self-centered mentality, between totalitarian regimes, such as China and Iran, and democratic regimes led by populist leaders, such as the US.
This mentality gives priority to the narrow and selfish economic interests of the regime and does not trust the capacity of citizens to protect themselves and the health of their societies. This mentality cares for nothing but to showcase its uniqueness regardless of pain and suffering. This does not change the truth but reaffirms it by the exaggerated criticism of Europe’s shortcomings in providing solidarity, such as in Spain and Italy, or the campaigns that are using the Chinese model to promote centralization and authoritarianism as the right choice in both confronting the pandemic and otherwise, or some populist governments, such as Turkey and Hungary, investing in the fear that the virus has created to strengthen its repressive grip, further limit democracy and stand above the rule of law and institutions.
Despite the disparities in the losses incurred by Western countries hit by the pandemic and the differences in how different governments confronted its spread, the scene is pointing towards large defects in their relations and structure, a decline in cooperation and solidarity in confronting the crisis, disparities in their healthcare systems, a lack or weakness in social justice, and class difference. This explains the large damage suffered by societies where free healthcare services had declined and the rapid spread of the pandemic among the impoverished in poor areas.
The painful blow that the pandemic dealt populist movements will not be useful if the grievances and manifestations of racism and deprivation that provided fertile ground for populism and extremism are not addressed. It will also not be useful if human rights are not reaffirmed and defended as universal human values not to be compromised. It is also necessary not to hesitate in showing the benefits and virtues of democratic governments free of selfishness, corruption and discrimination and that are held accountable by their people, especially in regards to how they protected people’s lives during the coronavirus pandemic or any other crisis that they go through.

Question: "What does it mean that all things work together for good (Romans 8:28)?"
GotQuestions.org?
Answer: When a Christian utters the phrase all things work together for good, he or she is referring to a portion of one of the most quoted, claimed verses in the New Testament, Romans 8:28: “And we know that in all things God works for the good of those who love him, who have been called according to his purpose.” Or, as the KJV translates it, “And we know that all things work together for good to them that love God, to them who are the called according to his purpose.”
God works all things together for good—both His good and our good. As God is glorified, His people benefit.
In Romans 8, Paul contrasts a life lived in selfish pursuits (the flesh) and one lived in league with, or in accordance with, God (the Spirit). He impresses upon readers that our sovereign God is all-knowing, all-wise, and all-powerful.
Those who love God can trust His goodness, His power, and His will to work out all things for our good. We journey together with Him.
The promise that God works all things together for good does not mean that all things, taken by themselves, are good. Some things and events are decidedly bad. But God is able to work them together for good. He sees the big picture; He has a master plan.
Neither does the promise that God works all things together for good mean we will acquire all that we want or desire. Romans 8:28 is about God’s goodness and our confidence that His plan will work out as He sees fit. Since His plan is always good, Christians can take confidence that, no matter our circumstances or environments, God is active and will conclude things according to His good and wise design. With this knowledge we can learn to be content (see Philippians 4:11).
The fact that God works all things together for good means God’s plan will not be thwarted. In fact, we are part of His plan, having been “called according to his purpose” (Romans 8:28). When we trust God and His way, we can be sure that He is active and powerful on our behalf (see Ephesians 3:20).
God knows the future, and His desires will be accomplished. “I make known the end from the beginning, from ancient times, what is still to come. I say, ‘My purpose will stand, and I will do all that I please’” (Isaiah 46:10). Even when things seem chaotic and out of control, God is still in charge. We sometimes worry about what’s happening to us because we do not know what is best for us. But God does.
The principle of God working all things together for good is well illustrated in the Old Testament account of Joseph’s life. Early in Joseph’s life, Joseph’s jealous brothers sold him into slavery. In Egypt, Joseph rises to a position of responsibility. Then, he is unjustly imprisoned and forgotten about by his friends. God gifts him the ability to interpret dreams, and through that ability Joseph is once again raised to a place of honor and power. When drought forces Joseph’s brothers to seek food elsewhere, they travel to Egypt and encounter Joseph, who eventually saves them from starvation and grants them a livelihood in his new land.
Throughout his life, Joseph trusted God no matter his good or bad circumstances. Joseph experienced plenty of bad things: kidnapping, slavery, false accusations, wrongful imprisonment, rejection, and famine. But in the end God brought things to a wonderful, life-affirming conclusion. God blessed Joseph’s entire family through those painful circumstances and through Joseph’s faith. (You can read about Joseph’s life beginning in Genesis 37.)
Paul’s life is another testament to how God works all things together for good. Paul suffered shipwrecks, beatings, imprisonment, murder attempts, temporary blindness, and more—all within God’s plan to spread the gospel (see Acts 9:16 and 2 Corinthians 11:24–27). Through it all, God was steadfastly working to bring about good and glorious results.
After promising that God works all things together for our good, Romans 8 concludes with the wonderful fact that God trumps everything that comes against Him and those who belong to Him. The Christian is assured that nothing can ever separate us from God’s love: “Who shall separate us from the love of Christ? Shall trouble or hardship or persecution or famine or nakedness or danger or sword? . . . No, in all these things we are more than conquerors through him who loved us. For I am convinced that neither death nor life, neither angels nor demons, neither the present nor the future, nor any powers, neither height nor depth, nor anything else in all creation, will be able to separate us from the love of God that is in Christ Jesus our Lord” (Romans 8:35–39). God’s love is everlasting, and His wisdom is infinite. It doesn’t matter who or what attempts to thwart God’s plan; no one and nothing can. God will work all things together for the good of those who love Him. Our decision to align our will with God’s and to always trust Him will be rewarded.

Assad might have run out of luck at last
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/May 01/2020
Somewhat eclipsed by the global COVID-19 pandemic, the trial of two men accused of committing crimes against humanity on behalf of the Syrian state began in Germany this week.
Witnesses, victims and a military defector gave evidence about the alleged atrocities that could lead to wider accusations. In addition, under “universal jurisdiction” Germany is investigating dozens of other Syrian former officials accused of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. On Thursday, Germany designated Hezbollah a terror organization and banned it from carrying out any activity on its soil. All this comes at an unfortunate time for Bashar Assad who, after ruthlessly regaining control of most of his territory, is looking to revive his international legitimacy.
Yet the risk to Assad of being directly implicated or accused by an international court will not depend on the evidence of victims or witnesses, but on a delicate geopolitical balance; the need for him to continue his role and involvement in a number of Middle Eastern issues is his best defense.
This has been the survival equation for the Assad regime for as long as one can remember. Even before the Syrian revolution in 2011 that led to the current conflict, the Baathist regime has always capitalized on regional balances for spoils and to secure its continuous reign.
Regional balances, for example, allowed Syria to invade Lebanon in 1976 as a reward for turning a blind eye to Israel’s takeover of the Golan Heights, and reap the spoils of war — namely Lebanon’s riches. The outbreak of the Gulf War in 1990 and the stand the Syrian regime took against Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait provided it with a lifeline at a time when it was under extreme pressure.
The occupation of Lebanon lasted until 2005, when Syrian forces were forced out of the country in the face of massive international pressure following the assassination of Rafic Hariri. Yet, the occupation did not end completely. It was continued by Hezbollah, the proxy of Iran’s mullahs, for different masters and stakeholders, mainly serving to maintain a balance between Iranian and Syrian interests. There was a sharing of influence and spoils that continued to deplete the Lebanese state and drown it in corruption, as part of a bigger Iranian agenda. This why today people are dying in Tripoli during protests.
Where Hafez Assad was always able to leverage his influence to be treated as a partner or ally of Iran, especially during the Iran-Iraq war, his son Bashar was unable to maintain this status and Syria is now less of a partner and more of a vassal state. Even Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah seems to rank above Assad in the Iran-Syria power structure.
Iranian preeminence has nevertheless saved Assad many times, especially since 2011. First, US President Barack Obama wanted to agree to a nuclear deal with Iran. As a result, Washington did not put pressure on Assad during the Syrian uprising because, with his heavy Iranian backing, it could have been perceived as an escalation that might have derailed the negotiations. This allowed Assad’s regime to bring in Hezbollah and other Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-sponsored fighters to support his regime in the fight against the revolution.
Assad’s next lifeline came in the form of the fight against Daesh. Some analysts even suggest the Syrian regime contributed to the creation of Daesh through intelligence infiltration. This was done purposefully in the knowledge it would attract international support for the regime and help build a narrative that there is no choice other than Assad to fight terrorism, while depicting Iran as a positive contributor to stability in the region.
Yet, despite support from the IRGC, the Syrian regime was still losing battles and territories to Syrian opposition factions and other groups. When the situation reached crisis point, Assad turned to another historical ally, dating back the days of the Cold War: Russia.
It is thanks to President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military that the IRGC and the Assad regime began to regain control of Syria. This laid bare Iran’s lack of capacity to settle the fight, along with the obvious superiority of Russian forces on the ground.
Similar to what happened in Lebanon after the withdrawal of Syrian forces, there now exists in Syria a balance and sharing of power, this time between Russia and Iran, with shared influence and agreements on some issues and competition and conflicts in others. The relationship is not, as many depict it, a full alliance between Russia, Iran and Syria, but instead more of a dynamic joint venture or partnership. To put it simply, Putin and the Russian generals are not likely to feel like sharing much influence or decision making with the IRGC, especially given it was Russian forces that saved the day.
Assad and his sponsors are looking to turn the page on the revolution and begin a new era for Syria. Yet, it appears that Russia is displeased with Assad’s actions. Indeed, the Western media have highlighted negative articles about the Syrian president and his regime that were published in newspapers close to or affiliated with the Kremlin, and suggested that Moscow is unhappy with his unwillingness to open up to the opposition and create a new political structure to govern this new Syria — a Syria awaiting billions of dollars of reconstruction projects.
This might be partly correct, but I would guess that the Russian frustration is more a result of Assad’s unwillingness or incapacity to reduce Iranian influence within his inner circle. Some conflicts have indeed appeared within the regime, especially on the business side. Also, despite Arab countries becoming more open to the regime to rebalance relations, these efforts will only bear fruit if Iran’s influence is reduced.
Therefore, this reduction of influence seems to reflect the interests not only of Russia but many international stakeholders. It also converges with the interests of Israel, who do not want to see IRGC and Hezbollah bases and camps at its border, and neither does Turkey, which made that point clear during the Idlib agreement.
Yet, after decades of servitude, is Assad capable, or even willing, to support Russian efforts to limit Iranian influence in Syria?
COVID-19 and a looming global recession might be to his advantage, allowing him to continue playing for time and set one side against the other. Yet, he is now also under growing pressure from Turkey, a NATO member that can potentially strike a larger deal with Russia and the US, especially after the Idlib agreement. Strangely enough, big shifts in the geopolitical order have always tended to favor the Assad regime — in a “Godfather”-like, Corleone family sort of way — and always at the last minute.
Yet, with members of his regime on trial in Germany for crimes against humanity, and Putin’s patience wearing thin, Assad might finally find himself out of luck this time, even with Tehran’s protection.
*Khaled Abou Zahr is the CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi. Twitter: @KhaledAbouZahr