LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 18/2019

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Then Jesus said to them again, “I am going away, and you will seek Me, and will die in your sin. Where I go you cannot come
John08/21-27Then Jesus said to them again, “I am going away, and you will seek Me, and will die in your sin. Where I go you cannot come.” So the Jews said, “Will He kill Himself, because He says, ‘Where I go you cannot come’?” And He said to them, “You are from beneath; I am from above. You are of this world; I am not of this world. herefore I said to you that you will die in your sins; for if you do not believe that I am He, you will die in your sins.” Then they said to Him, “Who are You?”And Jesus said to them, “Just what I have been saying to you from the beginning. I have many things to say and to judge concerning you, but He who sent Me is true; and I speak to the world those things which I heard from Him.”They did not understand that He spoke to them of the Father.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on March 17-18/2019
The Bleeding Women’s Faith & Hope
FPM Threatens to Topple Lebanese Govt. over Corruption, Refugee Files
Lebanese Delegation Withdraws from Arab Conference in Protest against Bashar Assad Poster
Renewed FPM-Mustaqbal War of Words Expected to be Contained
Bassil: I Should Not Have Become a Minister
Alloush: Bassil Seeking to Sabotage 'Presidential Settlement'
Mario Aoun: Mustaqbal Violated Govt. Solidarity, Toppling Govt. is Suicide
Tensions at Miyeh Miyeh Camp after Fatah-Hamas Clash
Naamatallah Abi Nasr Elected Head of Maronite League
Maronite Patriarch Blames Politicians for Shaky Faith in the Country
Dagher: Good Governance, Neutrality Key to Solving Hezbollah Dilemma
Israel’s outdated counter-terror methods don’t work with new Palestinian terrorist generation
Hezbollah on verge of bankruptcy as Iran sanctions bite
Lebanon’s tobacco addiction comes with a medical bill
In Lebanon, a clash of US-Russian interests are at play
A look back at Kamal Jumblatt and the Progressive Socialist Party

Litles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 17-18/2019
Pope Francis looks to resume planned trip to South Sudan
Pakistani Cleric Khabeebur Rehman Qazi Says: 'Allah Has Ordered Muslims To Take Up Weapons And Has Ordered The Use Of Weapons Against Unbelievers'
They have lost their fear of the IDF and go directly for Israeli soldiers and border guard police.
Israel Court Orders Closure of Building at al-Aqsa Mosque Compound
Netanyahu Election Rival Calls for Probe after Phone Hack
Iran's Oil Tanker Fleet Being Squeezed as Sanctions Bite
U.N. Envoy Discusses Syria Constitution on Damascus Visit
US Navy veteran detained in Iran gets 10 years in prison, lawyer says
Thousands Believed Still inside Last IS Pocket
'Suspicious Package' Shutters New Zealand's Dunedin Airport
Kurds in Iraq Mark 31st Anniversary of Halabja Massacre
Houthis Threaten to Attack Riyadh, Abu Dhabi
Morocco’s FM: We Don’t Intervene In Algeria’s Internal Affairs
Taliban kill 22 Afghan forces in attack on checkpoints
May warns of long Brexit delay if MPs do not back her deal
Brazil's Bolsonaro Heads to U.S. to Cement an Alliance with Trump
Tunisia Seeks Extradition of Ben Ali Brother-in-Law from France
Nationality Draft-Law Draws Criticism in Iraq

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 17-18/2019
The Bleeding Women’s Faith & Hope/Elias Bejjani/March 17/19
Hezbollah on verge of bankruptcy as Iran sanctions bite/Makram Rabah/The Arab Weekly/March 17/19
Lebanon’s tobacco addiction comes with a medical bill/Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly/March 17/19
In Lebanon, a clash of US-Russian interests are at play/Raghida Dergham/The National/March 17/19
A look back at Kamal Jumblatt and the Progressive Socialist Party/Posted by Chris Solomon on Saturday, March 16th, 2019/Syria Comment Blog
Pakistani Cleric Khabeebur Rehman Qazi Says: 'Allah Has Ordered Muslims To Take Up Weapons And Has Ordered The Use Of Weapons Against Unbelievers'/MEMRI/March 12/19
They have lost their fear of the IDF and go directly for Israeli soldiers and border guard police./DEBKAfile/March 17/19
Rohani seeks ‘channel’ in Iraq to bypass US sanctions/Mamoon Alabbasi/The Arab Weekly/March 17/19
Daraa protests show that city remains outside regime’s orbit/James Snell/The Arab Weekly/March 17/19
Iraq needs to reclaim its country, push Iran out/Tallha Abdulrazaq/The Arab Weekly/March 17/19
US sanctions drying up Iran’s oil income, future prospects/Sabahat Khan/The Arab Weekly/March 17/19
New Zealand massacre a wake-up call as chilling world order looms/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/March 17/19

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on March 17-18/2019
The Bleeding Women’s Faith & Hope
Elias Bejjani
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/73025/elias-bejjani-the-bleeding-womens-faith-hope/
(John 6:68): “Lord, to whom would we go? You have the words of eternal life”
Whenever we are in real trouble encountering devastating and harsh conditions either physically or materially, we unconsciously react with sadness, anger, confusion, helplessness and feel abandoned. When in a big mess, we expect our family members and friends to automatically run to our rescue. But in the majority of such difficult situations, we discover with great disappointment that in reality our heartfelt expectations do not unfold as we wish.
What is frustrating and shocking is that very few of our family members and friends would stand beside us during hardships and endeavour to genuinely offer the needed help. Those who have already walked through these rocky life paths and adversities definitely know very well the bitter taste of disappointment. They know exactly the real meaning of the well-know saying, “a friend in need is a friend indeed”.
Sadly our weak human nature is driven by inborn instincts that often make us side with the rich, powerful, healthy and strong over the poor, weak, needy and sick. Those who have no faith in Almighty God find it very difficult to cope in a real mess.
Meanwhile, those whose faith is solid stand up with courage, refuse to give up hope, and call on their Almighty Father for help through praying and worshiping. They know for sure that our Great Father is loving and passionate. He will not abandon any one of us when calling on Him for mercy and help because He said and promised so. Matthew 11/28-30: “Come to me, all you who labor and are heavily burdened, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me, for I am gentle and lowly in heart; and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light.”
One might ask, ‘Why should I pray?’ And, ‘Do I have to ask God for help, can’t He help me without praying to Him?’ The answer is ‘no’. We need to pray and when we do so with faith and confidence God listens and responds (Mark 11/:24): “Therefore I tell you, all things whatever you pray and ask for, believe that you have received them, and you shall have them”
Yes, we have to make the effort and be adamant and persistent. We have to ask and knock in a bid to show our mere submission to Him and He with no doubt shall provide. (Matthew 7/7 & 8): “Ask, and it will be given you. Seek, and you will find. Knock, and it will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives. He who seeks finds. To him who knocks it will be opened”.
On this second Sunday of Lent in our Catholic Church’s Eastern Maronite rite, we cite and recall the miraculous cure of the bleeding woman in Matthew 9/20-22, Mark 5/25-34, and Luke 8/43-48. As we learn from the Holy Gospel, the bleeding woman’s great faith made her believe without a shred of doubt that her twelve years of chronic bleeding would stop immediately if she touched Jesus’ garment. She knew deeply in her heart that Jesus would cure her even without asking him. Her faith cured the bleeding and made her well. Her prayers were heard and responded to.
Luke 8/:43-49: “A woman who had a flow of blood for twelve years, who had spent all her living on physicians, and could not be healed by any, came behind him (Jesus), and touched the fringe of his cloak, and immediately the flow of her blood stopped. Jesus said, “Who touched me?” When all denied it, Peter and those with him said, “Master, the multitudes press and jostle you, and you say, ‘Who touched me?’” 8:46 But Jesus said, “Someone did touch me, for I perceived that power has gone out of me.” When the woman saw that she was not hidden, she came trembling, and falling down before him declared to him in the presence of all the people the reason why she had touched him, and how she was healed immediately. He said to her, “Daughter, cheer up. Your faith has made you well. Go in peace.”
The woman’s faith cured her chronic bleeding and put her back in the society as a normal and acceptable citizen. During that era women with uterus bleeding were looked upon as sinners, defiled and totally banned from entering synagogues for praying. Meanwhile, because of her sickness she was physically unable to be a mother and bear children. Sadly she was socially and religiously abandoned, humiliated and alienated. But her faith and hope empowered her with the needed strength and perseverance and enabled her to cope successfully against all odds.
Hallelujah! Faith can do miracles. Yes indeed. (Luke17/5 & 6): ” The apostles said to the Lord, “Increase our faith.” The Lord said, “If you had faith like a grain of mustard seed, you would tell this sycamore tree, ‘Be uprooted, and be planted in the sea,’ and it would obey you”. How badly do we today need to have a faith like that of this women?
Let us all on this second Lent Sunday pray with solid faith.
Let us ask Almighty God who cured the bleeding women, and who was crucified on the cross to absolve our original sin, that He would endow His Holy graces of peace, tranquility, and love all over the world. And that He would strengthen the faith, patience and hope of all those persecuted, imprisoned, and deprived for courageously witnessing the Gospel’s message and truth.
*From the 2017 Archives

FPM Threatens to Topple Lebanese Govt. over Corruption, Refugee Files
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 March, 2019/Lebanon’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) continued to threaten to topple the government over the files of corruption, electricity and the displaced, which led to a political dispute between its members and the Future Movement, of Prime Minister Saad Hariri.Defense Minister Elias Bou Saab and former Economy Minister Raed Khoury both hinted that the movement would impede government work if the issues of electricity and return of the displaced Syrians to their country were not settled immediately. Foreign Minister and FPM chief Jebran Bassil had originally warned that his movement would no longer tolerate a continuous stalling in resolving these contentious issues. In light of the FPM’s commitment to the option of resorting to power-generating ships to resolve the electricity crisis – an option rejected by Hariri and the Future bloc - Bou Saab said on Saturday: “The lack of a solution to the electricity file means there is no government.” He remarked, however, that the FPM was opposed to the ships as a permanent solution, but as a way to secure electricity until Lebanon’s power plants are rehabilitated. Khoury, for his part, warned that the new government was threatened to fail, saying in a television interview: “If we cannot resolve the electricity file within a month or two, the government will fall…”“If Bassil and the president saw that matters were not going the right direction, either a ministerial change will take place or the government will collapse. Hariri has an interest in activating the Council of Ministers.”In response, Future Movement official Mustafa Alloush told the National News Agency (NNA) that the escalatory statements could compromise the rule of President Michel Aoun, “whose success Hariri is trying to ensure.”

Lebanese Delegation Withdraws from Arab Conference in Protest against Bashar Assad Poster
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 March, 2019/A delegation from the Bar Association from the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli withdrew on Saturday from a conference meeting in Tunis after the Syrian delegation there raised a poster of regime leader Bashar Assad and chanted slogans in his support. The delegations were taking part in the opening session of the 24th Arab Lawyers' Union (ALU) which kicked off in the Tunisian capital on Friday. The Bar Association in Tripoli announced in a statement that its delegation, headed by Mohammed al-Murad, withdrew from the opening session in protest against the “unethical” and “unprofessional” conduct of the Syrian delegates. Lebanon had for decades been under Syrian hegemony, which ended in 2005 after the assassination of Lebanese former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Lebanese opponents of the Syrian regime accuse Damascus and its allies in Lebanon of being behind the murder. Syria's years of hegemony were marked with political and security interference in its neighbor's internal affairs and political tensions between them persist to this day.

Renewed FPM-Mustaqbal War of Words Expected to be Contained
Naharnet/March 17/19/The renewed war of words between the Free Patriotic Movement and al-Mustaqbal Movement is expected to be “contained,” after intensive contacts were held in this regard, media reports said. The contacts “will intensify further after (Prime Minister Saad) Hariri returns from Paris, in preparation for this week’s cabinet session,” ministerial sources told al-Hayat newspaper in remarks published Sunday. “Hariri wants the government to focus on the missions required from it and not to waste time on bickering and debates,” the sources said.
“Hariri can no longer offer more concessions under the presidential settlement, neither in front of his supporters nor in the relation with his allies, and he can no longer disregard (FPM chief Jebran) Bassil’s endorsement of choices that are against the policies of the countries that are supporting Lebanon and asking it to abide by the dissociation policy,” the sources added. Observers meanwhile told al-Hayat that they do not rule out that Hariri has traveled to Paris to “signal that he is infuriated and annoyed by the FPM’s pressures.”“The criticism of Bassil’s speech in Future TV’s news bulletin intro did not come without Hariri’s knowledge,” the sources suggested.
The TV network has strongly lashed out at Bassil over a speech he delivered on Friday about refugees, electricity, the government’s work and corruption. Strong Lebanon bloc sources hit back in remarks to al-Markazia news agency, expressing “surprise” over Future TV’s stance. “All parties and forces represented in the government are concerned with Bassil’s remarks, especially regarding the achievements that the Lebanese are awaiting,” the sources said. “Bassil and the FPM wanted to deliver a clear message to Hariri: the era of political procrastination has ended and the time has come for work, especially in the Syrian refugee file,” the sources added, stressing that the Syrian refugees should return home as soon as possible. The sources, however, reassured that the “presidential settlement” is “not in danger.”“But this does not mean remaining silent over the unacceptable procrastination regarding the real start of the government’s work,” the sources added, noting that Bassil’s remarks aim to press Hariri to seek “productivity” instead of “wasting time in traveling.”

Bassil: I Should Not Have Become a Minister
Naharnet/March 17/19/Free Patriotic Movement chief and Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil announced Sunday that he “should not have become a minister” in the new government. “Today I will tell you something I say for the first time: I should not have become a minister… I was obliged for the sake of the FPM, the President and the country, but God willing, I will leave at the first chance, for the sake of myself, my interest and my position,” Bassil said at an FPM conference. Separately, Bassil said that any talk about the country’s next president carries “harm for the FPM, the President and the country.”“It is prohibited to talk about this with me and those who raise the issue want harm for me, for the FPM, for the President and for the country,” he added. “I only seek to achieve the FPM’s interest and I have no personal ambitions at all. Today my only concern is the FPM, the President and the country and I don’t have any other plans – neither personal nor public,” he added. Apparently referring to the latest war of words between the FPM and Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s al-Mustaqbal Movement, Bassil said: “We don’t know why some, more than others, feel that they are targeted by our remarks, but for the FPM the country’s interest comes before anything else.”

Alloush: Bassil Seeking to Sabotage 'Presidential Settlement'
Naharnet/March 17/19/Al-Mustaqbal Movement politburo member ex-MP Mustafa Alloush on Sunday accused Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil of seeking to sabotage the presidential settlement that led to the election of Michel Aoun as President and the appointment of Saad Hariri as Prime Minister. “This settlement is based on securing the highest level of political stability with the aim of attempting to rescue the economic and social files,” Alloush said in an interview with Radio Liban. “Bassil and his allies have commitments to abide to,” he noted. Referring to the FPM chief’s latest fiery speech, Alloush said Bassil “should discuss these issues in Cabinet and not on podiums.”“If he wants to address the refugee file, he should have attended the conference for that purpose,” Alloush added, referring to the Brussels conference, which was boycotted by Bassil. In a speech on Friday, Bassil had suggested that the conference was aimed at keeping Syrian refugees in the neighboring countries, threatening to “topple” the government. “There will be no government if the refugees don’t return, if corruption in Cabinet is not eliminated and if the electricity deficit is not ended,” he said. Defense Minister Elias Bou Saab and ex-economy minister Raed Khoury have voiced similar stances.

Mario Aoun: Mustaqbal Violated Govt. Solidarity, Toppling Govt. is Suicide
Naharnet/March 17/19/MP Mario Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement on Sunday accused al-Mustaqbal Movement of “violating governmental solidarity” through its latest stances, amid a war of words between the two movements. “Al-Mustaqbal Movement’s stances through the media are certain political stances during the period in which the Brussels conference was held and they somehow have violated governmental solidarity,” Aoun told Radio Liban in a phone interview. “What happened at Brussles was a mistake, seeing as it turned out that money will be paid to keep the refugees (in Lebanon) rather than return them to Syria,” Aoun added, echoing remarks by FPM chief MP Jebran Bassil. “These campaigns are a passing cloud that will not last, because we are governed by consensus. If the government falls, CEDRE will fall together with all the things we are awaiting in order to overcome the difficult situation we are living in,” the MP went on to say. He added: “No one can take responsibility for toppling the government and going backwards amid a very difficult situation. This would be suicide at the domestic political level.”Defending Bassil’s remarks, Aoun said: “Minister Bassil’s remarks should have been voiced and PM Hariri, who formed the (Brussels conference) delegation, committed some sort of mistake when he failed to ask the relevant minister to accompany him to Brussels.”“Bassil’s remarks aimed to avoid a repetition of the mistake,” he said. Aoun, however, ruled out further escalation in the confrontation between the two parties, noting that “things are headed for pacification.”

Tensions at Miyeh Miyeh Camp after Fatah-Hamas Clash
Naharnet/March 17/19/The Miyeh Miyeh Palestinian refugee camp east of Sidon witnessed “limited tensions” on Sunday between members of the Fatah and Hamas movements, the National News Agency said. The agency said the tensions erupted after an altercation between two members of the two movements that escalated into gunfire. “The clash erupted as a car driven by a Hamas member went through a Fatah checkpoint at the camp’s entrance. A verbal clash ensued between him and one of the checkpoint’s members after the latter accused him of speeding his way through the checkpoint,” NNA added. “He was quickly beaten up and his car was vandalized,” the agency said.

Naamatallah Abi Nasr Elected Head of Maronite League
Naharnet/March 17/19/The Heritage and Renewal list led by ex-MP Naamatallah Abi Nasr has won all the seats of the Maronite League and the former lawmaker has been elected as its president. Mtanios al-Halabi was meanwhile elected as deputy president.
“We thank everyone who took part in this democratic carnival despite the bad weather, especially those who flocked from the remote areas of the North, the Bekaa and the South, to confirm the League’s unity and confidence in our list’s patriotic rhetoric,” Abi Nasr said after the results were announced.
“We are open to the various Maronite figures, be them partisan or nonpartisan, because that carries a great hope to implement the League’s projects and decisions through them – the Maronite MPs and ministers,” the ex-MP added.
He said the League’s projects and decisions aim to “put an end to the manipulation of Lebanon’s democracy by a component at the expense of another through citizenship laws, naturalization and the selling of land, and before anything else the disaster of the Syrian refugee presence.”“The turnout exceeded 85% and this confirms that the base was not affected by the campaigns of distortion, all the malicious rumors and the attempts at eliminating our approach and silencing our rhetoric,” Abi Nasr went on to say. “We extend our hand to the comrades who were not lucky, so that we work together for the sake of the League and in support of the positions of the Presidency and Bkirki,” he added.

Maronite Patriarch Blames Politicians for Shaky Faith in the Country
Kataeb.org/Sunday 17th March 2019/Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rahi pointed out to the shaky faith of the Lebanese youth in their country, blaming this on the politicians’ indifference to their future and reluctance in making reforms. “The faith in Lebanon as a final homeland for all its people has become shaky due to political practices and allegiance either to another country, or to a sect or a party. It is also due to differences and stubborn stances that are made at the expense of the country, its institutions and public welfare,” Al-Rahi said in his Sunday sermon. The Patriarch noted that the faith in the country is weakening due to the rampant corruption and squandering of public funds without feeling any regret over the damage it is causing to the state and the people. He added that is faith in the country is slumping due to politicians’ indifference towards the future of its young generation, and failure to improve the economy and create job opportunities that would motivate the youth to stay in the country. Al-Rahi denounced the deadly attack that targeted two mosques in New Zealand, deeming it as a monstrous and heinous act.

Dagher: Good Governance, Neutrality Key to Solving Hezbollah Dilemma
Kataeb.org/Sunday 17th March 2019/Kataeb politburo member Serge Dagher on Sunday said that the March 14 coalition had failed to achieve two primary goals, which are forging complete sovereignty and building a real state by establishing good governance. In an interview with Voice of Lebanon radio station, Dagher stressed that these goals were not fulfilled because the coalition couldn't handle the Hezbollah dilemma and didn't know how to deal with it, given that the party is after all one of the components of the Lebanese society. Dagher, therefore, proposed four solutions to the Hezbollah dilemma: acknowledging Lebanon's pluralism because denying it would lead to crises, considering a new political system that is based on decentralization and coexistence, adhering to neutrality and dissociation from regional conflicts, as well as promoting good governance and nationhood according to which everyone is subject to accountability.

Israel’s outdated counter-terror methods don’t work with new Palestinian terrorist generation
Younger, more ruthless Palestinian terrorists first made their mark seven months ago with the murder in the Barkan industrial zone of Ziv Hajbi, 35, from Rishon LeZion and Kim Levengrund-Yehezkel, 28, from Rosh Ha’Ayrin. There, for the first time, we witnessed a new breed of terrorist – hitherto dismissed as “lone wolves” rather than members of a terrorist organization – who coolly plan ahead, procure weapons and mark out their targets after systematic reconnaissance. Their object is to kill and injure as many Israelis as possible. The young Palestinian killer prepares an escape route and bolt-hole with the help of willing accomplices. The “ideological” terrorist, who was wont to leave a will before blowing himself up with his victims, has made way for this new breed of mass killer, an advent marked by five features.

Hezbollah on verge of bankruptcy as Iran sanctions bite
مكرم رباح/حزب الله على حافة الإفلاس بنتيجة بدأ فاعلية العقوبات على إيران
Makram Rabah/The Arab Weekly/March 17/19
The waste of public funds makes Hezbollah no different from the rest of Lebanon’s decrepit political parties.
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/73067/makram-rabah-hezbollah-on-verge-of-bankruptcy-as-iran-sanctions-bite%d9%85%d9%83%d8%b1%d9%85-%d8%b1%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%ad-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d9%87-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%ad%d8%a7/
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah’s recent speech was not out of the ordinary because it touched on mundane topics from his usual threats against the West and Israel if they attack Iran or Lebanon to reaffirming his party’s supposed commitment to fight corruption.
But the purpose of Nasrallah’s televised speech was none of those issues. It was for him to declare Hezbollah’s bankruptcy and warn his supporters to brace for harder times.
Nasrallah did not use the term “bankruptcy” but his underlying tone, despite the brutish manner with which it was delivered, reflected the efficacy of the US sanctions against Iran and its various militias across the region.
The sanctions’ crippling effects transcend the ability of the Iranian auxiliaries to maintain their military structure but hit at the heart of their civilian social service network, which Hezbollah uses to maintain its ideological and political hold over its followers.
Nasrallah’s speech comes as an acknowledgment of his community’s inability to provide many of the essentials Hezbollah used to ensure — from basic salaries and financial subsides to more luxury services such as the free religious excursions to Shia shrines in Iraq and Iran.
Iran’s financial support for Hezbollah grew over the years as the latter took on more duties that transcended Lebanon, making it a regional and international enforcer of Iran’s expansionist project.
At an estimated $700 million in direct Iranian money transfers a year, Hezbollah never found it necessary to forage for funds from the Lebanese clientelistic networks and Lebanese public funds.
However, Hezbollah’s dire economic conditions could force it to use the state to pay for its elaborate social provisions, including the medical bills of wounded soldiers in Syria and assistance to their extended families.
Nasrallah called on the Hezbollah community to engage in a “financial jihad” and to donate money to the resistance, which would allow it to soldier through the financial war waged against it by the Trump administration.
Nasrallah’s wishful request, however, will not compensate for Iran’s lost millions but is rather a staunch message to his base of the need to embrace new and perhaps open-ended austerity measures.
Another of Nasrallah’s talking points was a threatening message to his local Lebanese opponents, particularly Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, leader of the Lebanese Forces political party Samir Geagea and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, that Hezbollah would be demanding its share of the clientelist pie and that any attempt to block it would be perceived as an act of war.
In a direct threat to Jumblatt, who had earlier used Sun Tzu’s river analogy, Nasrallah declared: “Those who have been anxiously waiting by the river for our corpses to float by due to our impoverishment, I assure them they will be greatly disappointed.”
Considering the lack of Iranian funds, Hezbollah seriously needs financial help, which it would get from projects earmarked at the CEDRE conference that committed $11 billion in grants and loans to the Lebanese government to overhaul its deteriorating infrastructure and economy.
Yet, Hezbollah’s ambitious plans to compensate for a lack of Iranian funding might hit a brick wall, one which it helped build. Most of the $11 billion from CEDRE are pledges that hinge on the Lebanese state’s ability to enact much needed structural reforms, which needs the full commitment of the various parties involved, including Hezbollah.
As it stands, Hezbollah’s attitude and its bullying of the Lebanese state makes reforms impossible.
There is no reason for Nasrallah’s foes and perhaps some of his allies to concede defeat and allow for Iran to continue its assault on the West and Gulf Arab states using Lebanese funds, a fact that would convince the Gulf states that their possible investment in Lebanon’s economic salvation is undeserving and counterproductive.
Hezbollah has planned for this financial doomsday scenario and might have ways to delay its bankruptcy. However, the real challenge the Shia group has failed to meet is staying away from the Lebanese honeypot of public funds.
The waste of public funds makes Hezbollah no different from the rest of Lebanon’s decrepit political parties, with the only difference being Hezbollah’s pursuit of the welfare of Iran rather than that of the Lebanese people whom they claim to protect.
Written By Makram Rabah
*Makram Rabah is a lecturer at the American University of Beirut, Department of History. He is the author of A Campus at War: Student Politics at the American University of Beirut, 1967-1975.

Lebanon’s tobacco addiction comes with a medical bill
Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly/March 17/19
BEIRUT - “It is a nice pastime, especially when we sit with friends in cafes, chatting while having a smoke,” said Nada Cherif.
Cherif said she was never enticed to smoke cigarettes but she is a regular user of nargile — also known as shisha, hookah or water pipe — which has become an epidemical trend in Lebanon.
Cherif insisted that she is not a tobacco addict. “I have friends who smoke the nargile more than once a day and alternate with cigarettes,” she said.
Lebanon has been ranked among the world’s highest tobacco-consuming countries in recent years. In 2015, a report by the World Health Organisation (WHO) put Lebanon third for the highest cigarette consumption per capita.
“It is no surprise that we have the highest cancer rate in the region,” said Nadine Chatila, director of communications at the American University of Beirut Medical Centre (AUBMC). “The problem is that indoor smoking is allowed in many public places. Shisha is easily accessible and you can even have it delivered to your home at a very cheap price.”AUBMC’s cancer department estimates that 8,000 cases of cancer are reported in Lebanon annually. Dr Nagi Saghir, professor of haematology-oncology and director of the breast cancer centre at AUBMC, has stated that cases are divided equally between the sexes and that, among the 4,000 cases of cancer in women, 1,700 are breast cancer.
Oncologist Dr Joseph Makdessi noted that cancer prevalence has risen globally, not only in Lebanon, with lung cancer being the most common type of the disease.
“Almost 90% of lung cancer cases are related directly to smoking,” Makdessi said. “Among females, cases of breast cancer are the highest, whereas prostate cancer is the most common among men.”
While smoking could be one of the main causes for lung cancer, other factors are relevant for the increase in cancer cases, Makdessi said.
“There is no single cause of cancer,” he said. “The cause is multifactorial. You cannot blame it exclusively on smoking, or pollution or diet, et cetera. It is a combination of several factors and people with a predisposition to genetic mutation are at higher risk.
“Also, people today have a longer life expectancy and it is natural that in view of the population growth you would have an increase in cancer cases. What is important to assess here is the age of the patients. Is it mostly affecting the elderly or is it increasing among the youth?”
The Lebanese Ministry of Health stated that the rate of cancer diagnoses in Lebanon increased 5.5% yearly in 2015 and 2016. It said the figure was based on statistics of people who register at the Health Ministry for treatment. Since not all resort to the ministry for assistance, the real number is probably higher.
With the widespread use of the nargile, in addition to the high consumption of cigarettes, Makdessi said he expected not only cancer but cardiovascular diseases to increase in the next decades.
“Nargile is a very dangerous trend whose effects will appear in 10 or 15 years,” he said. “The rate will increase alarmingly because the majority of shisha smokers today are the young and they will be prone to develop lung cancer in the future because of their history of smoking nargile.”
Recent studies indicated that most shisha smokers in Lebanon are women and young Lebanese are among the heaviest shisha smokers in the world.
There is a common misconception that water pipe smoking is less harmful than cigarette smoking because the water filters the smoke. However, the WHO said a nargile smoking session that lasts one hour involves inhaling 100-200 times the volume of smoke inhaled with a single cigarette and exposes the smoker to higher amounts of toxic materials than found in cigarettes.
AUBMC has begun a social media campaign to raise awareness about the link between smoking tobacco from a water pipe, also known as “hubbly bubbly,” and cancer. The campaign’s video was shared on Facebook to mark World Cancer Day on February 4.
AUBMC offers a smoking cessation programme that costs $166 and includes eight 45-minute sessions of counselling and therapy.
In 2012, Lebanon enacted a law intended to limit cigarette and tobacco consumption. However, Law 174 outlawing smoking in closed public places has been notoriously disregarded, especially in pubs, nightclubs and cafes.
The legislation also introduced the concept of displaying health warnings on all tobacco product packaging in hopes that the messages would deter people from smoking.
*Samar Kadi is the Arab Weekly society and travel section editor.

In Lebanon, a clash of US-Russian interests are at play
Raghida Dergham/The National/March 17/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/73070/raghida-dergham-in-lebanon-a-clash-of-us-russian-interests-are-at-play-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%BA%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%BA%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85/
The current US-Russian rivalry in Lebanon is, at its heart, about Syria, Israel and Iran. Lebanon’s hydrocarbon potential of course carries weight in the context of gas exports to Europe, but the security of Russian forces in Syria is the top priority for Moscow and demands vigilance where Iran and Israel are concerned. Lebanon is also valuable for the same reason for the US, although the American motivation differs from that of Russia because of the country’s historic alliance with Israel and US President Donald Trump’s policy of containing Iran and proxies such as Hezbollah. Russia, unlike the US, enjoys close relations with both Israel and Iran and has a significant presence in Syria, suggesting Moscow already has leverage that Washington can only hope to match. However, Washington is not in a weaker position than Russia. Unlike the latter, it is not bogged down in Syria’s quagmire. Nor does it have anything to fear from the evolution of Russian-Israeli bonds because they can only complement US-Israeli ones. As for Lebanon, it stands to benefit from a US-Russian accord that aims to shore up stability in the country.
The visit by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Beirut next week is therefore important. He will doubtless issue warnings but also reassurances if he feels Lebanon’s leaders acknowledge what is at stake. Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s March 26 visit to Moscow, meanwhile, will only become an opportunity if it is not accompanied by attempts to manipulate the existing equation between the US and Russia over a myriad of issues. For example, Moscow has yet to come up with a practical plan for the mass repatriation of Syrian refugees from Lebanon. And there are no signs that Russia is willing to side with Lebanon and abandon Israel in the context of the two neighbouring countries’ dispute. Further, Moscow might not echo parts of the Lebanese government in disapproving of US measures against Iran and Hezbollah because Russian interests do not always conform to those of Iran, whether in Syria or in Lebanon. The issue of arming the Lebanese Armed Forces is a crucial one for the Americans, who categorically reject any Iranian or Russian armed transfers to the national army. If there is talk about “soft ammunition” for police forces, however, that does not equate to a strategic Russian decision to challenge the US. Economically, while the Lebanese market is not significant enough to justify a clash between the US and Russia, oil and gas are important. Where gas exports to Europe are concerned, Russia has considerable leverage, giving the US cause for concern. Lebanon’s potential hydrocarbon wealth is significant but not enough to cause an upset in global markets. The importance of Russia acquiring an energy foothold in Lebanon stems from its role in Syria; hence, both the US and Russia see Lebanon’s energy market as one with strategic dimensions.
Mr Pompeo will no doubt tackle this issue as well as the Lebanese-Israeli dispute over maritime borders, rather than talking about exploration contracts. As long as the maritime borders have not been demarcated, Israel will benefit and Lebanon will lose out. Demarcating the borders does not mean either negotiating, normalising or concluding peace treaties. All those who use this excuse are giving Israel more time to exploit and extract gas secretly, with the aim of exporting it in the future to Cyprus, Greece and Italy, in a project that will bypass Lebanon.
It is time for Lebanon to demarcate those maritime borders with Israel as well as land borders with Syria because it serves its national interests. There is a chance for US-Russian co-operation to help achieve this end and for the two countries to pressure their Israeli and Syrian allies.
When Mr Aoun visits Moscow, he can ask Russian President Vladimir Putin to help with a number of issues, starting with convincing Syrian President Bashar Al Assad to agree to the demarcation of land borders, something that Damascus has long resisted. That would help solve the dispute with Israel in areas such as the disputed Shebaa Farms
The borders issue is more immediate and directly beneficial than the issue of repatriating Syrian refugees. International players are manipulating the refugee issue because Europeans still fear their arrival on their shores while the UN is accustomed to managing refugees where they are, rather than developing a strategy to help them return home.
The problem is that Mr Aoun, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil and their backers have correlated the refugee issue with normalising relations with the regime in Damascus. In fact, Mr Al Assad only wants wealthy Syrians to return and has implemented laws to seize properties of refugees and refuseniks fleeing forced conscription. Russia can help with this issue but the US and Europe also need to pressure Mr Al Assad so that he alone cannot decide who can or cannot return. Otherwise, Syrian refugees in Lebanon will remain indefinitely. Lebanon’s leaders must not miss this opportunity for talks with the US and Russia because that threatens to push the country towards economic collapse and compromise its security. Mr Aoun’s team is under extreme scrutiny. The Americans have told him there will be zero tolerance for a government manipulated by Hezbollah. There are whispers now about possible sanctions against Christian and Sunni factions in Lebanon, not just Shia businessmen supporting Hezbollah. Mr Pompeo is expected to warn that Washington will not tolerate a continued alliance between the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah. For its part, Russia will not be Hezbollah’s protective shield, especially amid reported differences between the two sides over the group’s military activities in the Golan Heights, which Russia wants to keep neutral as part of an accord with Israel. In short, this phase requires vigilance and wisdom from all sides, as well as the US and Russia.

دراسة عن كمال جنبلاط والحزب التقدمي الإشتراكي
A look back at Kamal Jumblatt and the Progressive Socialist Party
Posted by Chris Solomon on Saturday, March 16th, 2019/Syria Comment Blog
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/73059/chris-solomon-a-look-back-at-kamal-jumblatt-and-the-progressive-socialist-party/
https://www.joshualandis.com/blog/
As Syria’s Druze seeks out a balance with the Assad regime, the history of the Lebanese Druze’s Progressive Socialist Party and its leader, Kamal Jumblatt, from the Lebanese Civil War era may yield insights into post-war Syria.
The status of Syria’s Druze community has drifted in and out of the West’s attention during the long slog of the conflict. Talal el-Atrache’s recent article highlighted the precarious situation the Druze in Sweida Province, resting on the frontier of Da’esh, with the only option safeguarding their independence and security by way of the Syrian government. The brutal raid illustrated the fraught nature of civilians in southern Syria. Retaliation came quickly. Pictures circulated on social media showed a capture Da’esh fighter hanged from ruins of a Byzantine church over an arch known as “the gallows.” However, the Syrian Druze have also participated in the Syrian Civil War in organized fighting forces. Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi has highlighted the scope of the Druze Arab Unity Party and its affiliated militia, Saraya al-Tawheed, operations in Syria. In addition, Tamimi discussed the role Druze women have taken on by upon recruitment to pro-regime militias, such as Labawat al-Jabal.
Still, the position of the Syrian Druze throughout the war has been desperate, with some youth refusing to join the Syrian army. One young man told AFP in November, “The army is your grave.” Commentary and analysis has long pondered what the future holds in store for Syria’s Druze. Will they gain enhanced political influence or potential ostracization and persecution?
The Druze in wartime continues to be overshadowed by the Levant’s larger geopolitical events. For some insights into how the Druze transitioned from a combatant force into a peace time political entity, a look back at the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) and its militia, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), during the course of the Lebanese Civil War, yields some insights.
Founding of the Progressive Socialist Party to the 1958 Lebanon Crisis
Kamal Jumblatt was born in December 1917 to a powerful Druze family with Kurdish origins. His parents had a long history of protecting Druze interests in Lebanon. His father Fouad obtained an administrator post during the period of Ottoman rule. When Fouad was assassinated by a member of the rival Druze Arslan family in 1921, Kamal’s mother Nazira took over as the head of the Jumblatt family. Kamal traveled to France and obtained a degree in psychology and civil education at the Sorbonne University before returning to Lebanon in 1939. He took over as the head of the Jumblatt family in 1943, the year of Lebanon’s independence. He founded the Progressive Socialist Party (al-hizb al-taqadummi al-ishtiraki) in May 1949. The party was officially secular and had a Pan-Arab orientation. After Lebanon’s independence from France, Jumblatt formed a short-lived alliance with Camille Chamoun that brought down the corrupt and unpopular government of President Bechara El-Khoury in the Rosewater Revolution of September 1952.
However, with the Suez Crisis in 1956, regional tensions soon reverberated in Lebanon. Strong differences emerged between Jumblatt and Chamoun and the Druze leader turned towards Egyptian leader Gamal Abdul Nasser who had taken power in Cairo following the Free Officer’s coup in July 1952. Jumblatt strongly supported the Pan-Arabist movements in the region. When Syrian President Adib Shishakli arrived in Lebanon seeking a place of refuge after the anti-Shishakli National Front coalition (which included the Baath Party and Syrian Communists) overthrew him in a coup, Jumblatt’s threats forced the former Syrian strongman to leave for safety overseas in Brazil. This was largely in response to Shishakli’s brutal offensive against the Druze in February 1954.
By the late 1950s, the chasm between Lebanese President Camille Chamoun and Jumblatt reached a boiling point. In April 1957 Chamoun himself had voiced the opinion that reconciliation with Jumblatt was still possible.[i] However, a U.S. Embassy Beirut dispatch from August 1957 showed that the Druze leader had little trust or patience for his government. The dispatch relayed news of a meeting between Jumblatt and embassy staff where he denounced the Chamoun government and accused it of “gangsterism” in the Chouf and warned that his followers would take up arms to kick Chamoun’s “corrupt” local officials out of the area.
Jumblatt added that Lebanon’s internal situation was “deteriorating to the point where only a strong and respected leader like General Chehab could restore law and order to the country.” Furthermore, he believed that Lebanon “must put its own house in order” to meet the external threat posed by the Syrian-Soviet accord.[ii] By the end of that same month, Jumblatt, railed against the government’s arrest of his supporters, and told the Lebanese press that Chamoun was risking pushing the Druze into a “second Hermel,” a reference to the Druze uprising against the French colonial forces some 30 years prior. Defense Minister Majid Arslan, for his part, said, “I believe the law ought to be applied equally to everyone without discrimination as it has already been applied to my own brothers and friends.”[iii]
The Lebanese Civil War
Prior to the Lebanese Civil War, Jumblatt’s party went a period of renewal and strength. Despite the relative security under the Chehabist era, Lebanon was in the midst of social and political turmoil. From 1965 onward, the Druze-dominated movement had seen its membership increase from working class and the economically disenfranchised segments of Lebanese society, largely Druze and Shia, but also contained some Lebanese Sunni Muslims. It was in this climate that Jumblatt’s PSP had essentially positioned itself as an “agent of change.” In addition, the PSP also saw the Baath Party’s successful power grabs in Iraq and Syria and recognized the anti-imperialist sentiments popular in the region as a harbinger for Lebanon.[iv]
However, it was the alliance with the Palestinians that made the PSP the dominant power broker on the Lebanese left. In 1969, Jumblatt, in his role as Lebanon’s Interior Minister, legalized a group of radical leftist and nationalist political parties to allow them back into Lebanese politics. With the military might of the well-armed and politically assertive PLO fully behind it, Jumblatt’s PSP fastened itself in the conflict as the vanguard of the Lebanese National Movement (LNM). This coalition of largely leftist and revolutionary parties faced off against the Christian and conservative elements of the Lebanese political elite. A series of clashes, massacres and retaliations escalated into open warfare in April 1975. Although often described as a sectarian conflict, the Lebanese Civil War, at least in its early phases, had strong ideological undercurrents that transcended sect and ethnicity.
The PSP’s armed wing was known as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Some sources put the total number of armed fighters in the PLA at 3,000.Although the party was staunchly secular, the PLA is typically described as one of the largest and most powerful sectarian armies in the civil war era. The militia is usually described as mainly composed of Druze and Shia recruits, with the latter effort occasionally put the PLA in conflict with the Amal militia of Imam Musa al-Sadr.[v]
After the LNM’s secured a series of victories against the Christian Lebanese Forces, Syria’s late President Hafez al-Assad grew wary of the rising power of the LNM, and feared it would threaten the integrity of the Lebanese state if the PLO was able to secure outright power on the Lebanese battlefield. He felt this would undermine Syria’s own influence in Lebanon and control over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In December 1975, Assad notified the Lebanese combatants that he would “strike anyone who broke the peace.”
Patrick Seale wrote that Jumblatt was “a genuine man of the left,” adding, “He had early befriended the Palestinians, proclaimed himself a Nasserist, enjoyed cordial relations with Moscow, and from the late 1960s onward had gathered together a vast constituency of Arab nationalists and radicals of all sorts. And by the spring of 1976, as his allies besieged the strongholds of his old Maronite rivals, he scented victory.”[vi] However, for Assad, this could not stand. In his view, the LMN was positioning Lebanon into a state of partition, which played directly into the geopolitical designs of Israel. After the Syrian military intervention in Lebanon in 1976, Jumblatt traveled to Damascus and endured a tense meeting with Assad. No agreement between the two was reached. Assad asserted that Jumblatt allegedly said he wanted to destroy the entire Lebanese confessional system. However, His son Walid later relayed that his father knew about Assad’s designs to divide the warring Lebanese factions and conquer Lebanon.
In early 1977, he traveled to Paris and met with French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing. There he received promises of international support for Lebanon. Afterwards, he went to Cairo to hold court with Anwar Sadat, who had fallen out with Assad following the Arab’s defeat in the 1973 October War (Yom Kippur War). The Egyptian leader urged Jumblatt to stay in Cairo and allegedly warned him of an assassination plot.[vii]
October 25, 1975 – The Lebanese National Movement announces the end of the fighting in the first phase of the Lebanese Civil War. Kamal Jumblatt (center) is pictured with the SSNP’s Inaam Raad (left), along with Muhsin Ibrahim from the Communist Action Organization in Lebanon, and Anwar al-Fatayri of the Progressive Socialist Party.
Following his path our emblems will remain victorious. 1984.
Kamal Jumblatt was killed by unknown gunmen on March 16, 1977 while traveling to his home in Mukhtara. Apparently he had sought to establish his own autonomous administrative region in the Chouf. Jumblatt had been targeted for assassination earlier in December 1976 with a car bomb, which he accused the Syrian-backed Saiqa militia of being behind the attempt.[viii] Lebanese Communist Party leader George Hawi claimed in a 2005 interview that it was Assad’s brother, Rifaat al-Assad, who was responsible for the assassination.[ix] Others have suggested it was likely a botched kidnapping attempt. The exact details of Jumblatt’s assassination were never fully investigated by the Lebanese government and to this day, like many other crimes of the civil war era, the murder remains unsolved. However, there was a general consensus that the Syrian Air Force Intelligence was behind the incident.
The Martyrs of the Progressive Socialist Party in the Aley Region, 1983
Following Kamal Jumblatt’s death, Walid took over as the head of the PSP. The party and the civil war’s sectarian dimension became dramatically more distinct during this period. The Washington Post reported the cries of revenge by the Druze women at Jumblatt’s funeral, as well as the celebratory gunfire in the Christian sectors of East Beirut.[x] The impact of his death was felt particularly hard by the Palestinians. The Guardian quoted the late Yasser Arafat in 1977 saying, “It’s a tragedy. For us, Jumblatt was the equivalent of several armies fighting on our side.”[xi] The PSP engaged in brutal fighting with the Lebanese Forces in the so-called Mountain War from 1983-1984. The Lebanese Army joined with the Christian militias in an attempt to gain control over the predominantly Druze Chouf district.[xii] The PSP’s militia remained active in the conflict until the conclusion of the war, participating even in the final battles where the pro-Syrian forces routed General Michel Aoun’s troops holed up in the Baabda Palace during the so-called Liberation War. Aoun then left for his exile in France. Following the Taif Agreement, the PLA largely demobilized and entered the newly formed Lebanese Armed Forces and government security services. However, some elements of the PLA lingered on, participating in armed operations against the Israeli Defense Forces occupying southern Lebanon until the latter pulled out in 2000.
Nizar Hassan of the Lebanese Politics Podcast explained how Kamal Jumblatt’s life lingers on in Lebanese society 42 years after his assassination, “The essence of Kamal Jumblatt’s legacy on the PSP is that he represents the intellectual (and in a way spiritual) icon whose ideas and quality shall not be questioned. He is the figure to which all can pledge allegiance and about which they can express nostalgia. It is the hero that they never had ever since, a hero who is seen as a dreamer and visionary who carried the ideals of secularism, humanism and socialism, and beyond all a good and pure man. This is especially relevant because his son and successor Walid represents the other kind of qualities of the Za’eem; mainly political pragmatism and a focus on protecting the Druze and maximizing their share of social surplus. Another aspect of his legacy is the institutions that he created to ensure the party’s continuity and social dominance, which are arguably as powerful today as they ever were.”
March 16, 1985, Pledge and loyalty.
A PSP militia fighter greets a member of Amal as a Syrian soldier looks on. Note the faction insignia on the shoulders.
Post-war politics
The fraught nature of commemorating Lebanon’s war martyrs was highlighted by Robert Fisk during the 40th anniversary of Kamal Jumblatt’s death. He noted that Walid has made every effort to warn against the bloody sectarian reprisals that followed his father’s assassination. Walid told Fisk in 2017, “He was trying to get rid of [Lebanon’s sectarian system] because the Muslims and Druze were not equal partners in the system. My father tried to do this peacefully. The elite of the Christians were with him. But the dream of a non-sectarian Lebanon was killed with him on the same day he died.”[xiii]
In 2005, Walid and the Lebanese Baath Party exchanged accusations over the death of PSP military official Anwar Fatayri, who was killed in 1989, after Walid had tasked him with pursuing reconciliation.[xiv]
Ultimately, Jumblatt ended up shunning the Syrians in the post-war period. After the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hariri, the PSP became a part of the anti-Syrian March 14th Alliance.
Nazih Richani, the author of Dilemmas of Democracy and Political Parties in Sectarian Societies: The Case of the Progressive Socialist Party of Lebanon 1949-1996, told Syria Comment Walid’s anti-Syrian positions were rooted in the assassination of his father, along with Rafik Hariri, and added, “Walid’s perception that Pax-Americana was eminent and that a ‘New Middle East’ was about to happen in the wake of the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq. However, I think he miscalculated the geopolitical, regional, and global conditions and this drove him to the opposing camp of Syria.”
A pledge is a pledge, 1981
Walid’s son Taymour has taken over after the official head of the party. However, it is Walid who still retains control behind the scenes. Taymour has indicated to the press that he has a distain for the feudal brand of Lebanese politics.[xv]Nevertheless, the third generation of Jumblatts look set to continue on at the helm of the PSP. At a memorial commemorating Kamal’s 1977 assassination, Walid told Taymour, “Walk forward with your head held high, and carry the legacy of your grandfather.”[xvi]
Hassan touched on how the PSP had to reorganize in Lebanon’s post-war politics, “Unsurprisingly, the civil war gradually destroyed the ‘political party’ aspect of the PSP and empowered the sectarian militia character…[however,] the last few years have seen a conscious effort to resurrect the PSP as a fully functional political party (similar to what Samir Geagea did with the Lebanese Forces), as opposed to a one-man show. This is however is very unlikely to make any significant change as Taymour, Walid’s son who possesses none of the requirements for leadership, was handed the throne without any democratic process and in contrast with Walid’s insistence in the past that he is against ‘political inheritance’ and would encourage internal elections for new leadership.”
Still the PSP continues to be plagued with the lasting stigma of being a relic of the civil war’s sectarian character. One Syrian Social Nationalist named Elijah said, “Kamal Jumblatt was a man of principles and ideology, who did not sell himself to the highest bidder, as a Syrian Social Nationalist I respect that, even if I disagree with him.” He went on to lament the current state of the PSP, “For a party that is so progressive and socialist, they ended up representing Druze as only a sect, like most of the other Lebanese parties, and they are today a shallow image of what they used to be.”
Richani said, “Since 1977, in spite that the PSP’s ideology remains secular, conflict dynamics in a vertically divided society proved to be a formidable challenge. The secto-political system of representation that was engineered in the 19th century by colonial powers (France, the British, and the Ottomans) vying for influence was further reinforced by the French with the 1943 constitution. This in turn was consolidated with the Taif Accord of 1990. Certainly the objective conditions played a significant role in transforming the PSP into a predominatly sectarian-based group. But agency, like everything in history, played an equally important role.”
The PSP’s “reluctant heir” shares a strong resemblance to his grandfather
Hassan said, “The PSP today is a sectarian party that maintains social dominance through a variety of mechanisms, but most important is the clientelist relationship between supporters and the Jumblatt family. This has two dimensions: the resources offered directly in return for allegiance (such as jobs, healthcare support or material assistance) and the influence on the distribution of state’s resources (most importantly jobs, but also access to healthcare and bringing in state investments into the Druze areas). I can say that it is not individuals that support Jumblatt, it is the communities. The communities support Jumblatt and avoid any confrontation with him because they are worried about not being supported in the future. So the basis of support is largely material. On the other hand, there are the social-psychological aspects, such as the inherited sense of love and affiliation, the habitual involvement in PSP affiliated civil society organizations from young age, and the legacy of the civil war. The latter is also a major pillar of Jumblatt’s legitimacy: there is a perception that Walid Jumblatt offers protection for the Druze. He represents a well-connected, pragmatic, but also courageous figure that would pull strings to avoid harm, and if needed lead the violence when harm is inevitable.”
The flag of the Lebanese Democratic Party, the PSP’s primary rival within the Lebanese Druze community.
Following the Lebanese parliamentary elections in May 2018, the PSP engaged in violent clashes with its longtime Druze rival, the Lebanese Democratic Party (LDP). An office belonging to the PSP was bombed with an RPG, killed a local PSP volunteer and community activist named Alaa Abi Faraj. LDP head Talal Arslan was accused of harboring fugitive. The issue was later buried between the two sides.[xvii] However, the tension still exists between the PSP and LDP and most recently were manifested in a spat involving Sheikh Nasreddine Al Gharib, a pro-Damascus Lebanese Druze figure who did not approve the journey of Sheikh Naim Hassan, the head of the Druze Spiritual Council, who is aligned with Jumblatt. Subsequently, Sheikh Hassan was barred from entering Syria. Faour weighed in on the controversy, saying the move by the Syrian government was “further evidence of the return of the regime to its previous practices of intervention in internal Lebanese affairs.” The LDP defended Damascus. Its spokesperson Jad Haidar responded that Syrian sheikhs were required to obtain special identification for travel to Lebanon.[xviii]
Hassan said, “The LDP is incomparable to the PSP in size, power or ideological significance. It has no clear ideological tendency, no hero figure to give its current leadership legitimacy, and no major influence on the state’s resources. In the last election, the number of votes that the LDP leader Talal Arslan received was embarrassing to say the least; and if not for his inflation by the Free Patriotic Movement (an anti-Jumblatt strategy), he would have been largely insignificant on the national political scale. There is also quite a lot of hatred towards Arslan among the pro-Jumblatt communities for his support of the FPM’s major entrance into the politics of majority Druze areas in the last election, as he is seen to contribute to a political strategy that aims to weaken Jumblatt politically and revive sectarian tensions between the Christians and Druze of Mount Lebanon.” The PSP current has 2 cabinet positions in Lebanon’s newly formed government. Ayman Choucair, the State Minister for Human Rights Affairs, and has been in parliament since 1992. Choucair previously held other cabinet posts, including Ministry of Human Rights Affairs, Environment, and Agriculture. He was also the PSP’s director for the party’s office in Damascus from 1985 to 1991. During his time as the Minister of Human Rights Affairs, Choucair used his platform to pressure the Lebanese security forces over their treatment of the Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Following the deaths of four Syrian refugees in July 2017, he said, “To preserve the army’s image and prevent any rumors that may be malicious, we ask the relevant leadership and judiciary to open a transparent investigation into…the causes that led to the deaths.”[xix]
Another PSP member, Wuel Abu Faour, is the Industry Minister.[xx] He was previously the Minister of Health and was first elected to parliament in 2005. Faour lauded Russia’s role in securing the release of the Syrian Druze women who were taken captive by Da’esh in November 2018. He noted that Taymour played a role in working with the Russians on the situation. He said, “These recent events showed that Taymour Jumblatt’s confidence in the Russians was in place especially after the liberation operation. Further discussions about future arrangements related to the Druze’s situation in Syria are under way. A suggestion proposed that the Druze wanted for military service would join the fifth legion led directly by Russia, which is receiving positive feedback among Druze.”[xxi]
Faour suggested that the ties between Russia and the PSP were both long running and enduring. He explained, “The relation between [the PSP] led by Walid Jumblatt and the Russian Federation is historic. Russians preserve their relations with their historic allies and remember the great role of Kamal Jumblatt, who was awarded with the Order of Lenin among very few figures in the world. They also cherish the common friendship and struggle they share with Walid Jumblatt and want to consolidate the relation with his son Taymour.”[xxii]
Hassan shared his thoughts on Taymour’s future leadership of the PSP, “Taymour is far from a competent leader in any person’s mind, including the staunchest supporters of the Jumblatts. But the idea is that he is young and still learning, so we should give him a chance; this was the justification to support him in the 2018 election. It is hard to predict whether the PSP will continue to dominate druze politics in the future. On one hand, Taymour is a very pragmatic person when it is no longer civil war times and people need visionary change-makers. He does not represent any ideological standing, he does not have a particularly left wing or progressive rhetoric, and we have not seen any impressive leadership moments yet. But on the other, the PSP’s mechanisms of social control and dominance remain very strong, which makes it difficult to imagine how its influence could be declining anytime soon. The major variable to watch in the near future will be the rise of independent political movements in the Druze-majority areas (such as the group LiHaqqi), which is already influencing the PSP and pushing it in a left-progressive direction. This will either end in the PSP adopting the causes of these movements and preventing any potential loss of support to them, or the beginning of the end of feudal politics. The next decade will help us know what to expect.”
[i] U.S. Department of State, Embassy Beirut Telegram, April 11, 1957
[ii] U.S. Department of State, Embassy Beirut Telegram, August 27, 1957
[iii] U.S. Department of State, Embassy Beirut Telegram, August 28, 1957
[iv] Nazih Richani, Dilemmas of Democracy and Political Parties in Sectarian Societies: The Case of the Progressive Socialist Party of Lebanon 1949-1996, (St. Martin’s Press, New York, 1998), p. 80-81
[v] Edgar O’Ballance, Civil War in Lebaon, 1975-1992, p. 16
[vi] Patrick Seale, Asad, The Struggle for the Middle East, p. 280-281
[vii] Saad Kiwan, Jumblatt’s legacy still echoes in today’s Lebanon, The New Arab, March 22, 2015, https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/comment/2015/3/22/jumblatts-legacy-still-echoes-in-todays-lebanon
[viii] Edgar O’Bllance, Civil War in Lebanon, 1975-1992, p. 62
[ix] “George Hawi knew who killed Kamal Jumblatt,” Ya Libnan. June 22, 2005
[x] Stuart Auerbach, “Jumblatt Buried As His Followers Avenge Murder,” The Washington Post, March 18, 1977, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1977/03/18/jumblatt-buried-as-his-followers-avenge-murder/f858f618-bf32-4e25-b492-9d7043c4925b/?utm_term=.a5e308277118
[xi] “From the archive, 17 March 1977: Lebanese leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt assassinated,” The Guardian, March 17, 1977, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/17/lebanon-kamal-jumblatt-assassination-archive-1977
[xii] Nora Boustany, “Druze-Christian Fighting Spreads,” The Washington Post, December 13, 1984, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1984/12/13/druze-christian-fighting-spreads/5a88f929-51e0-4f81-ba4b-bd07176b8e57/?utm_term=.28811272bcff
[xiii] Robert Fisk, “On the 40th anniversary of Kamal Jumblatt’s death, is trouble brewing again in Lebanon?,” The Independent, March 19, 2017, https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/lebanon-civil-war-walid-jumblatt-christianity-anniversary-a7638021.html
[xiv] Maher Zeineddine, “Jumblatt: Accusations of Fatayri murder aimed at hindering national reconciliation,” The Daily Star, February 14, 2005, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2005/Feb-14/2588-jumblatt-accusations-of-fatayri-murder-aimed-at-hindering-national-reconciliation.ashx
[xv] “Five new faces to follow in Lebanon’s parliament,” Agence France-Presse,
[xvi] “Lebanon’s Jumblatt affirms son Taymour as political heir,” Middle East Eye, March 19, 2017, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/lebanons-jumblatt-affirms-son-taymour-political-heir
[xvii] “1 killed in post-election clash in Lebanon town,” Xinhua News Agency, May 8, 2018, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-05/09/c_137164860.htm
[xviii] Sunniva Rose, “Syrian decision causes controversy among Lebanese Druze,” The National, March 4, 2019, https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/syrian-decision-causes-controversy-among-lebanese-druze-1.833101
[xix] “Lebanon’s human rights minister calls for probe into Syrian deaths in custody,”Reuters, July 6, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-refugees-syria-minister-idUSKBN19R1FC
[xx] “Lebanon’s new Cabinet lineup,” The Daily Star, February 1, 2019
[xxi] “Lebanese MP: Sweida hostages were freed by Russia,” Arab News, November 12, 2018, http://www.arabnews.com/node/1403716/middle-east

Latest LCCC English Miscellaneous Reports & News published on March 17-18/2019
Pope Francis looks to resume planned trip to South Sudan
Reuters, Vatican City/Sunday, 17 March 2019/Pope Francis has asked aides to resume plans for a visit to South Sudan, a trip that had to be scrapped in 2017 because of the civil war in the world’s youngest country. During a meeting with South Sudanese President Salva Kiir on Saturday, Francis “expressed the wish to ascertain the conditions for a possible visit to South Sudan,” a Vatican statement said. It added that he wanted to make the trip as “a sign of closeness to the population and of encouragement for the peace process”. Oil-producing South Sudan, which became independent in 2011, descended into civil war in December 2013 when a dispute between Kiir and his sacked deputy Riek Machar sparked fighting, often along ethnic lines.In September, Kiir, who is Catholic, and Machar, a Presbyterian, signed a peace deal calling on the two main rival factions to assemble, screen and train their respective forces and unify them into a national army before the formation of a unity government in May. Three days ago, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group said in a report that the six-month-old peace deal risked collapse because none of these steps have occurred, just two months before the deadline. More than half of the population of South Sudan is Christian, while Sudan is predominantly Muslim. In 2017, Catholic Church leaders in the country said they had expected the pope would visit the capital, Juba, in the autumn of that year. The tentative plans were scrapped because of security concerns. About 400,000 people have been killed, and more than a third of the country’s 12 million people uprooted by the civil war - a conflict punctuated by multiple rounds of mediation followed by renewed bloodshed. The original trip was to have lasted only one day for security reasons and the pope was to have flown in after spending a night in another African country. Francis is expected to visit several African countries this year, including Madagascar. The pope was to have made the 2017 trip to South Sudan with Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby, head of the worldwide Anglican communion, in an effort to promote unity in the mostly Christian country. The conflict sparked Africa’s worst refugee crisis since the 1994 Rwandan genocide and plunged parts of the country into famine. More than 875,000 refugees have fled into neighboring Uganda since the war broke out. The pope and Kiir discussed the return of refugees, the Vatican statement said.

Pakistani Cleric Khabeebur Rehman Qazi Says: 'Allah Has Ordered Muslims To Take Up Weapons And Has Ordered The Use Of Weapons Against Unbelievers'
MEMRI/March 12/19
https://www.memri.org/jttm/pakistani-cleric-khabeebur-rehman-qazi-says-allah-has-ordered-muslims-take-weapons-and-has
The following report is now a complimentary offering from MEMRI's Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM). For JTTM subscription information, click here. Maulana Mufti Khabeebur Rehman Qazi, preacher in the Department of Preaching of Pakistani jihadi organization Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), addressed a series of religious gatherings in the city of Sahiwal in Pakistan's Punjab province. According to a report in the JeM's weekly Haftroza Al-Qalam, Qazi delivered four speeches over a three-day trip to the city where he urged Muslims to offer daily prayers and join jihad. The radical cleric rued the fact that not many Muslims are taking up arms. "Muslims! We see a large mass of Muslims in the world today, rather an ocean full of waves. But everyone desists from taking up the sword. Rather, some Muslims consider it below their dignity to hold weapons in [their] hands," the preacher told his audiences. "Allah has ordered Muslims to take up weapons and has ordered the use of weapons against unbelievers. However, only that Muslim whose heart has the strength of faith can raise a weapon against an unbeliever," he said, adding: "The sword is raised due to the strength of faith."
Qazi said: "Our Prophet [Muhammad] has taught us that the sword should be raised against kafirs, for the defense of Muslims, for the defense of our religion, and for the enforcement of the religion of Islam on this earth. All praise be to Allah, the mujahideen are fully performing this duty."
*Haftroza Al-Qalam, March 1-7, 2019.

They have lost their fear of the IDF and go directly for Israeli soldiers and border guard police.
DEBKAfile/March 17/19
/Although army chiefs deny the influence of the “Eisenkot Effect” or “Elor Azaria syndrome” on the troops (the former prosecuted the latter for killing a prone Palestinian terrorist in Hebron), the fact remains that in the last three major terrorist attacks, the soldiers on the spot hesitated to shoot back. This is what happened on Dec. 9, 2018 when Palestinian gunmen in an attack at the Ofra junction took the life of an infant; in the Dec. 13, Givat Assaf attack, in which Palestinian gunmen shot dead two soldiers; and again, on Sunday, March 17, when two Palestinian killers stabbed then shot dead 1st Sgt. Gal Kaydan at the Ariel junction before snatching his M-16 and commandeering a passing car. They then continued their shooting spree at Giti Avishar junction and grievously injured two more Israelis. The terrorists take advantage of the highways of Judea and Samaria, which are open to the use of Israelis and Palestinians alike, for multiple attacks, moving easily from one scene to the next. Since last October, these killers have got away and stayed at large by studying IDF standard responses to an attack. While still on the run, these terrorists are free to prepare more attacks. They find encouragement from witnessing how during Hamas’ year-long cross-border campaign from the Gaza Strip, the IDF and Israel’s security chiefs were frozen in place for initiatives to cope with the menace, aside from predictable aerial bombardments. DEBKAfile’s military analysts conclude that the IDF, the Border Guard, the Shin Bet security service and their masters, by remaining trapped in outdated methods of operation and static responses, have left the arena of confrontation to the young Palestinians who are seizing the chance to make their mark. Prime Minister/Defense Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and the minister Yoav Galant, who often represents him, declared that the killers will be caught and brought to account. This tired old mantra offers no remedy. Even when they are eventually brought to book, more of the new Palestinian terrorists are still out there and confident they can outwit their old enemy.

Israel Court Orders Closure of Building at al-Aqsa Mosque Compound
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 17/19/An Israeli court on Sunday ordered the temporary closure of a side building at a highly sensitive Jerusalem holy site that has been the source of tensions in recent weeks. The Jerusalem magistrates court said the building known as the Golden Gate at the Al-Aqsa mosque compound, known to Jews as the Temple Mount, should be closed while the case continues. The site's administrator, the Waqf religious organization, was given 60 days to respond to the court case involving the building. Israeli police have called for the building to be closed. There are believed to be discussions ongoing between Israel and Jordan, the custodian of the holy site, over the status of the building. There have in recent weeks been scuffles between worshippers and Israeli police at the site in Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem over the use of the side building.
Palestinian worshipers have been entering the site despite an Israeli order that it should stay closed. Israel shut access to the Golden Gate in 2003 during the second Palestinian intifada over alleged militant activity there. Palestinian officials argue that the organization that prompted the ban no longer exists and there is no reason for it to remain closed. The larger compound is the third-holiest site in Islam and a focus of Palestinian aspirations for statehood. It is also the location of Judaism's most sacred spot, revered as the site of the two biblical-era Jewish temples. Jews are allowed to visit but cannot pray there and it is a frequent scene of tension.

Netanyahu Election Rival Calls for Probe after Phone Hack
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 17/19/The main challenger to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in April elections wants an investigation into leaks that led to stories about his phone being hacked, suggesting the premier's allies were behind the leak. Israel's Channel 12 television reported last week that Benny Gantz's telephone had been hacked by Iranian intelligence. Gantz, a former military chief of staff, later confirmed the hack without saying who was behind it, but added there was nothing on the phone that could be used to blackmail him. A Gantz ally has since said Iran was not behind the hack. In a letter sent to Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit on Saturday, Gantz's lawyers called for a urgent investigation into the leak of the information. "There is no denying that there is a series of indications... that the leak would have come from a certain office located in Jerusalem," the letter said, adding however that there should be an investigation and not speculation over the leak's source. Israeli media reported that domestic security agency Shin Bet informed him of the hack of his phone five weeks ago. Yair Lapid, a former finance minister who joined forces with Gantz to form their Blue and White electoral alliance, said that Netanyahu's "use of sensitive security materials to try and besmirch Benny Gantz proves he's afraid of him".Netanyahu's office has said that the premier was not updated by the head of the Shin Bet on the affair. Opinion polls show Gantz's centrist alliance could win the most seats in April 9 elections, but it is unclear whether it would be able to assemble enough parties for a coalition.

Iran's Oil Tanker Fleet Being Squeezed as Sanctions Bite
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 March, 2019/Iran is running short of options to replace its aging fleet of tankers and keep oil exports flowing because renewed US sanctions are making potential sellers and flag registries wary of doing business with Tehran, Western and Iranian sources said. Since US President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions in November, exploratory talks with South Korea for up to 10 new supertankers have stalled and Panama has also removed at least 21 Iranian tankers from its registry forcing Tehran to put the vessels under its own flag, the sources said, Reuters reported. Washington has put restrictions on Iran’s port, energy and shipping sectors but it has given temporary waivers to the country’s eight biggest oil customers, which include China, India and Japan, so they can keep buying Iranian crude. With oil exports accounting for an estimated 70 percent of Iran’s revenues, maintaining a fleet of enough tankers to store and move that oil is crucial for Tehran. But potential sellers of vessels are more wary under the new round of sanctions after a Greek network that helped Iran buy tankers under previous restrictions was blacklisted. “Iran has been looking for ships, but this time round it is going to be harder - there is so much more scrutiny now. It is going to take them longer,” one shipping source said. According to Reuters, Western insurers are steering clear of Iranian vessels and Iran’s attempts to export crude to the US-approved buyers is further complicated by having to put its tankers under its own flag, rather than a third country such as Panama. If Iran runs into difficulties exporting its oil it could have a significant impact. Besides the importance of oil for its budget, Iran is estimated to produce about 2.8 million barrels a day, more than 9 percent of OPEC’s output.
"Whatever sector you look at, companies will keep in mind being cut off from the US financial system when deciding whether to trade with Iran," said Mehdi Varzi, an independent oil consultant who has previously worked at the state-run National Iranian Oil Co en.nioc.ir/Portal/Home. Following the reimposition of sanctions, Panama, the world’s leading flag state for commercial shipping, decided to de-flag Iran’s ships, an Iranian official said. Shipping data shows nearly all Iran’s tankers had been registered with Panama. All commercial ships have to be registered - flagged in a particular country - partly to comply with safety and environmental laws. A source at Panama’s flag registry said the cancellation, “affects approximately 60 Panama registered ships that are related to Iranian and Syrian owners”. The source did not provide further details. Altogether, more than 20 other tankers in Iran’s fleet have been reflagged to Iran this year. Reuters reported a US Treasury spokesperson as saying: “We intend to fully enforce these sanctions and we encourage the cooperation and compliance of our allies and partners.”Having its tankers flagged in Iran presents problems for Tehran - even if it can secure more vessels and approved buyers for its oil, shipping experts say. Besides China, India and Japan, Washington also gave South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy and Greece the green light to keep buying Iranian oil, although it’s unclear whether these waivers will be renewed when they expire in May.

U.N. Envoy Discusses Syria Constitution on Damascus Visit
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 17/19/The U.N. envoy for Syria held talks in Damascus on Sunday with Foreign Minister Walid Muallem, who stressed the need for a Syrian-led political solution to the eight-year war. Norwegian diplomat Geir Pedersen discussed efforts to find a political settlement to the conflict, including moves to form a committee tasked with drawing up a post-war constitution, state media said. Muallem expressed Syria's readiness to cooperate with Pedersen to facilitate a political solution, the official news agency SANA said. But he said that the political process, including talks over a new constitution, should be "Syrian-led and owned.""The constitution and all matters related to it are a sovereign issue that should be decided by Syrians themselves without any foreign interference," Muallem said in a statement carried by SANA. Pedersen arrived in Damascus on Sunday in the second such visit since he took up his post in January. Last month the envoy said in Geneva that he saw a constitutional committee as "the potential door-opener for the political process."He pointed to a U.N. resolution adopted in 2015 calling for the creation of a new constitution followed by U.N.-supervised elections. The U.N. Security Council remains deeply divided over the way forward in Syria, where the war entered its ninth year last week with more than 370,000 people dead. Veto-wielding Russia, a key backer of President Bashar al-Assad, has taken a lead role in diplomatic efforts through the so-called Astana group with Iran and Turkey that has largely sidelined U.N. diplomacy.

US Navy veteran detained in Iran gets 10 years in prison, lawyer says
Reuters/Sunday, 17 March 2019/A US Navy veteran has been sentenced to 10 years in an Iranian prison, his family’s lawyer said, after he was arrested last July while visiting an Iranian woman in the city of Mashhad. Michael White, 46, was convicted of two charges, insulting the country’s top leader and posting a private photograph publicly, in separate hearings on March 6 and March 9, according to the lawyer, Mark Zaid. The basis for the first charge is not yet clear. The second charge appears to have been leveled after White uploaded a picture of himself sitting with the woman, an Iranian national, Zaid said.Iranian authorities have not released details of the charges. The US State Department said it was aware of White’s detention, but added that it could not provide additional information because of “privacy considerations.”“We are aware of the detention of a US citizen in Iran,” a State Department official said. “We have no higher priority than the safety and security of US citizens abroad.” The family learned of the sentence earlier this week from the State Department, which in turn received the information from Swiss diplomats. The Swiss represent US interests in Iran because the countries do not maintain diplomatic ties. White, a California native, served 13 years in the Navy. The family and the State Department are still trying to determine whether the charges are politically motivated or the result of a criminal prosecution, Zaid said. “It’s been very unclear,” he added. White’s arrest has further strained the difficult relationship between the Trump administration and Iran, which worsened after US President Donald Trump withdrew from an international agreement curbing Iran’s nuclear program and re-imposed sanctions. The Iranian regime has imprisoned several other American citizens in recent years, including father-and-son Baquer and Siamak Namazi, and Xiyue Wang. All three were accused of espionage-related activities and have denied the allegations. The United Nations has condemned the prosecutions as unjust, and Trump has demanded that Iran release all US citizens in custody.
Since January, when Iran first confirmed White’s arrest, he has not been permitted to contact his family, Zaid said. His court-appointed lawyer for the two hearings did not speak English, Zaid said, adding that the family is working on hiring an Iranian lawyer to handle White’s appeal.

Thousands Believed Still inside Last IS Pocket
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 17/19/Thousands of people are believed to remain inside the Islamic State group's last sliver of territory in eastern Syria, a U.S.-backed force said Sunday citing evacuees, hampering the operation to crush the jihadists. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces have been trying to flush jihadists from their last desert holdout in the village of Baghouz near the Iraqi border since January. At the time, Mazloum Kobani, the SDF's top commander, estimated that the operation would take one month. Thousands of men, women and children, as well as suspected jihadists, have poured out of Baghouz in recent weeks. The numbers have baffled the SDF and prompted them to pause the operation several times. SDF spokesman Kino Gabriel told a news conference Sunday that according to the latest group that quit the pocket, "an estimated 5,000 people" are still holed up inside. He cautioned, however, that the SDF has not been able to verify that figure. Those fleeing the enclave have previously reported widely inconsistent figures on the number of people still inside, ranging from thousands to a few hundred. Gabriel said there was no clear timeline for the end of the operation, but estimated that it may take several more days before IS is driven from its last pocket. "I hope it won't take more than a week but this is a personal estimate," he said in the village of Sousa in eastern Syria. Gabriel said that nearly 30,000 IS members and their relatives have surrendered to US-backed forces since January 9, including more than 5,000 fighters. An additional 34,000 civilians have been evacuated from the IS redoubt over the same period, he said. The exodus has sparked a humanitarian crisis in Kurdish-run camps for the displaced further north, where civilians have been transported. At the height of its brutal rule, IS controlled territory in Syria and Iraq the size of the United Kingdom, with a population of millions. The total capture of Baghouz by the SDF would mark the end of the cross-border "caliphate" it proclaimed more than four years ago. Beyond Baghouz, IS retains a presence in eastern Syria's vast Badia desert and sleeper cells in the northeast. Holdout jihadists defending their last bastion have launched a series of suicide bombings in recent days to hamper the SDF advance. On Friday, IS launched three suicide attacks outside Baghouz, killing six people as they fled the village.

'Suspicious Package' Shutters New Zealand's Dunedin Airport
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 17/19/New Zealand police closed Dunedin airport late Sunday after a suspicious device was reported on the airfield. "Dunedin Airport is currently closed" a statement said. "Police are at the scene and specialist teams have been deployed to determine the nature of the package." New Zealand is currently on a state of high alert after a gunman, who is believed to have lived in Dunedin, killed 50 people in two mosques filled with worshipers. An Air New Zealand staff member on the scene, who was not authorized to speak to the press, told AFP the terminal building had not been evacuated. Only a handful of flights were due to arrive to the airport in the southeastern city, as the scare came in the late evening. According to tracker Flightaware, Air New Zealand flight 691 from Wellington had been circling about the city for almost an hour before returning to its destination.

Kurds in Iraq Mark 31st Anniversary of Halabja Massacre
Halabja - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 March, 2019/Hundreds of Kurds gathered in the Iraqi town of Halabja on Saturday in a tearful ceremony commemorating the former Baath regime’s gas attack in 1988 that killed some 5,000 people, mostly women and children. Halabja Governor Azad Tawfiq called for compensation and care for survivors still suffering from respiratory problems. "The Kurdish government, the Iraqi central authorities and the international community owe a debt to Halabja," he said, according to AFP. Iraq's President Barham Salih, himself Kurdish, said that "the sufferings of Halabja reflect those of the Kurds and all Iraqis."Writing on Twitter, he said the town embodied "the will to resist and be reborn" in a country ravage by decades of conflict, most recently the battle against the ISIS group. Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi said the Halabja attack was an act of "genocide" and "barbarity". On March 16, 1988, Saddam Hussein’s forces unleashed a cocktail of deadly gases on the northern farming community, captured a day before by Kurdish fighters who had sided with nearby Iran in the countries' eight-year war. Facing a barrage of Iraqi regime artillery and air strikes, Kurdish forces and most of the town's men had withdrawn to the surrounding hills, leaving behind women, children and the elderly. The following day, Iraqi fighter planes circled above the area for five hours, releasing toxic gases including sarin and mustard gas. Marking 31 years since the massacre, tearful relatives on Saturday carried portraits of the victims in a solemn ceremony of remembrance. Ali Hassan al-Majid, a cousin of Saddam better known as "Chemical Ali", was hanged in 2010 for ordering the 1988 attack. Saddam himself was hanged in 2006 after being found guilty over the deaths of 148 Shiite villagers.

Houthis Threaten to Attack Riyadh, Abu Dhabi
Sanaa - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 March, 2019/The Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen threatened on Saturday to launch attacks against Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, claiming they have the necessary arsenal to carry out such assaults. "We have aerial photographs and coordinates of dozens of headquarters, facilities and military bases of the enemy," Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said in comments carried by the rebels' Al-Masirah channel. "The legitimate targets of our forces extend to the capital of Saudi Arabia and to the emirate of Abu Dhabi," capital of the UAE, he said.
"We have manufactured advanced generations of attack aircraft, and new systems will soon be functional."The militias also admitted to launching 17 terrorist attacks in the Red Sea during four years. They vowed to continue the developments of offensive capabilities to launch attacks in the Red Sea and Yemen’s coast, demonstrating their lack of commitment to withdraw from the port city of Hodeidah as stipulated in the Sweden deal reached in December. Boasting of their military “achievements”, the Houthis said that they carried out 164 drone attacks and over 1,300 surveillance operations. Military observers and international reports say that Iran smuggled the parts of hundreds of drones to the Houthis. Iranian experts and others from the Lebanese Hezbollah party then assisted them in putting them together. Saturday’s threat came as the United Nations was trying to salvage the December truce deal, seen as crucial to diplomatic efforts to end the country's four-year war. The militias are preparing to commemorate the fourth anniversary of their coup in Yemen. They are seeking to take advantage of the occasion to recruit new members.

Morocco’s FM: We Don’t Intervene In Algeria’s Internal Affairs
Rabat - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 March, 2019/Morocco has confirmed Saturday its non-interference stance in Algeria’s internal affairs in light of demonstrations that have been taking place in the country since February 22, according to Morocco’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Nasser Bourita.
“The Kingdom of Morocco has decided not to interfere in recent developments in Algeria and not to comment on the matter,” Bourita told AFP. The Moroccan government has not commented on developments in Algeria since the beginning of the demonstrations rejecting the candidacy of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika for a fifth term. Its official government spokesman, Mustafa al-Khaliji, refused Thursday to answer any question on the subject during his weekly meeting with the press. Tension has strained diplomatic relations between Rabat and Algeria for decades over the Sahara issue. In November, Moroccan King Mohammed VI called on parties to find “a common political mechanism for dialogue and consultation” between Morocco and Algeria in order to improve and normalize bilateral relations. However, he didn’t receive any response from Algeria in this regard.

Taliban kill 22 Afghan forces in attack on checkpoints
The Associated Press, Kabul/Sunday, 17 March 2019/An overnight Taliban assault on checkpoints in northern Afghanistan killed 22 troops, after some 100 Afghan forces fled a similar assault in the country’s west last week and tried to cross into neighboring Turkmenistan, officials said Sunday. The two battles mark the latest setbacks for the country’s battered security forces, who come under daily attack by the insurgents and have suffered staggering casualties in recent years. The attacks have continued even as the Taliban have been holding direct negotiations with the United States aimed at ending the 17-year war. Mohammad Tahir Rahmani, head of provincial council in the northern Faryab province, said the insurgents launched the attack late Saturday against checkpoints manned by police and pro-government militias, setting off a fierce gunbattle that lasted into Sunday morning. The army sent in reinforcements, who were among those killed. He said another 20 Afghan forces were wounded in the attack. Last week, around 100 Afghan soldiers in the western Badghis province fled their posts and tried to cross the border during a weeklong battle with the Taliban, officials said Sunday. Mohammad Naser Nazari, a provincial council member in Badghis, said the soldiers weren’t allowed to cross the border and their fate remains unknown. The Taliban have posted pictures of captured soldiers on social media. Jamshid Shahabi, the provincial governor’s spokesman, said 16 soldiers have been killed and 20 wounded during the ongoing battle in the Bala Murghab district, in which the military carried out airstrikes and dispatched reinforcements. He said a number of soldiers tried to flee, without providing an exact figure. Shahabi said more than 40 insurgents were killed in the fighting. He said the provincial police chief and army commander are in the district and instructing the forces to root out insurgents and rescue soldiers. Officials said the fighting had largely subsided by Sunday, with sporadic clashes breaking out in remote areas. Nazari provided a higher toll, saying 50 soldiers were killed and around 100 others were missing. He said hundreds of local residents have gathered in front of the Badghis governor’s office to express their concerns about security in the province. He said Bala Murghab is almost completely controlled by the Taliban, with Afghan forces confined to the district headquarters. In a separate development on Sunday, an Islamic State affiliate claimed the killing of a local TV journalist in the eastern Khost province. The group did not say why it targeted Sultan Mahmoud Khirkhowa, a reporter with the local Zhman TV and radio, who was killed Friday when two men on a motorcycle opened fire on his vehicle. Another Afghan reporter was wounded in a targeted bombing last week in the southern Helmand province. Afghanistan is among the most dangerous countries in the world for reporters. The Afghan Journalist Safety Committee reported 121 cases of violence against journalists and media workers in 2018, with 17 killed.

May warns of long Brexit delay if MPs do not back her deal
AFP, London/Sunday, 17 March 2019/British Prime Minister Theresa May has issued a stark warning to lawmakers that if they do not back her Brexit deal, there is the possibility the country “will not leave the EU for many months, if ever.”Her appeal comes after a chaotic week in parliament in which MPs twice massively rejected the Brexit deal May struck with EU leaders with just two weeks left before Britain is due to leave the bloc. Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, May said that if MPs do back her deal before the European Council summit on Thursday, she would seek “a short technical extension” beyond the March 29 date to leave the EU. Acknowledging it was “not an ideal outcome,” May said, “it is something the British people would accept if it led swiftly to delivering Brexit.” “The alternative if Parliament cannot agree on the deal by that time is much worse”, she said, with Britain likely having to take part in European elections in May if there was a longer extension. “The idea of the British people going to the polls to elect MEPs three years after voting to leave the EU hardly bears thinking about. “There could be no more potent symbol of Parliament’s collective political failure,” she wrote. The prime minister struck her agreement with the EU in November after nearly two years of tortuous talks following the June 2016 referendum to leave the bloc. But the deal has remained deadlocked in parliament, chiefly by disagreement over the so-called Irish “backstop” -- a measure to avoid barriers at the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Lawmakers voted against the deal for a second time on Tuesday but then voted against leaving the EU without a deal on Wednesday. MPs also rejected a call to hold a second Brexit referendum -- a blow to the hopes of a large number of Britons who still dream of keeping their European identity. May needs to win over rebel Brexiteers in her own party and Northern Ireland’s hardline Democratic Unionist Party which props up her government.

Brazil's Bolsonaro Heads to U.S. to Cement an Alliance with Trump
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 17/19/Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro left for Washington on Sunday to meet with his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump and cement a budding conservative-populist alliance that, in part, aims to ramp up pressure on Venezuela. The far-right leader flew out of Brasilia early Sunday with six ministers, among them Foreign Minister Ernesto Araujo, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes and Justice Minister Sergio Moro, Brazilian media reported. It was Bolsonaro's first trip abroad for a bilateral meeting since taking office on January 1. He attended the Davos summit in Switzerland in January. Bolsonaro, who will also meet in Washington with the head of the Organization of American States (OAS), is scheduled to return to Brazil on Tuesday.
Admirer of Trump
A Trump-Bolsonaro bond could see the leaders of the Americas' two largest democracies working in concert on a range of regional issues. Most pressing is the crisis in Venezuela, where the U.S. and Brazil -- and dozens of other countries -- have recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as interim president with the goal of forcing President Nicolas Maduro from power. The tough-talking Bolsonaro has long expressed his admiration for Trump. He echoes the U.S. leader in spurning multilateral organizations and leftist politics, while promoting businesses over environmental concerns at home. Their shared nationalist sentiment can be seen in another relationship: that of Bolsonaro's son Eduardo, who is a federal lawmaker, with Trump's former strategist Steve Bannon. Eduardo Bolsonaro announced in early February that he was part of the Brussels-based group known as The Movement, which Bannon set up to promote far-right nationalistic values and tactics. The older Bolsonaro announced on Saturday that one key result of his current trip would be the signing of an agreement under which the U.S. might gain access to a satellite-launching base in Brazil near the Equator.
Eyes on Venezuela
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 17/19/But most eyes will be on developments surrounding Venezuela, which shares a border with Brazil. Previous Brazilian administrations took a friends-to-all approach to neighboring countries. But not Bolsonaro. The 63-year-old former paratrooper is vehemently opposed to leftist currents, at home and abroad, and he shares Trump's hostility to the "dictator" Maduro, who took over after the death of socialist leader Hugo Chavez in 2013. Trump has repeatedly insisted that "all options are on the table" with regards to Venezuela, a phrase understood to include military action. But Bolsonaro, like other members of the mostly Latin American Lima Group, has ruled out military action in favor of a policy of tightening the economic and diplomatic noose around Maduro. As well as a "private meeting" with Trump in the Oval Office on Tuesday, Bolsonaro will sit down with OAS Secretary-General Luis Almagro, and participate in various forums to promote economic opportunities in Brazil. The US is Brazil's second biggest trade partner after China. After his arrival Sunday, Bolsonaro will dine at the residence of Brazilian ambassador Sergio Amaral with "opinion makers" including, according to press reports, Bannon and U.S.-based Brazilian writer Olavo de Carvalho, considered Bolsonaro's ideological guru. Bolsonaro will be staying in Blair House, the official US state residence opposite the White House used for visiting dignitaries. After his return to Brazil, Bolsonaro is planning a trip to Chile and then, in late March, to Israel. He forged close ties with Israel's conservative leader, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, when the latter attended Bolsonaro's inauguration.

Tunisia Seeks Extradition of Ben Ali Brother-in-Law from France
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 17/19/Tunisia said Sunday it is seeking the extradition of deposed president Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali's brother-in-law, who has been arrested in France and is wanted at home for alleged fraud. The justice ministry, in a statement received by AFP, said it had learned from the Interpol office in Tunis that Belhassen Trabelsi was arrested on Thursday in France. It said he was facing 17 arrest warrants in Tunisia and 43 international warrants. There was no official confirmation in France of Trabelsi's arrest. But a source close to the investigation said he had been detained in the south of the country earlier this week in connection with alleged financial wrongdoing. There were no further details. The millionaire businessman and brother of Ben Ali's wife Leila Trabelsi left Tunisia in January 2011 when the Arab Spring uprising forced the veteran leader to flee to Saudi Arabia. Trabelsi and his family flew in a private jet to Montreal where he requested political asylum but Canada turned down his appeal in 2015, and a year later as it prepared to deport him he vanished. He is wanted in Tunisia where he is thought to have headed a clan that embezzled government funds. A leaked June 2008 U.S. diplomatic cable concluded that Trabelsi was "the most notorious (Ben Ali) family member and is rumored to have been involved in a wide-range of corrupt schemes."Trabelsi -- whose holdings included an airline and hotels -- has denied the allegations against him, saying he accumulated his wealth from being a successful entrepreneur.

Nationality Draft-Law Draws Criticism in Iraq
Baghdad - Fadhel al-Nashmi/ Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 March, 2019/An amendment to the nationality law in Iraq has drawn criticism over “dangerous flaws” in the draft that suggests granting the Iraqi nationality to foreigners who have lived in the country for just one year. The government submitted to draft to parliament last week, sparking a wave of fierce popular and political criticism. Parliament overwhelmingly rejected the draft. Veteran former lawmaker Hassan al-Alawi launched a scathing attack against the government and those behind the amendment, accusing them of “betraying Iraq.”“Everyone who helped draft and supported this law is not Iraqi. They are foreign agents and traitors, who agree to selling their country,” he charged in statements that were widely circulated on social media. “What kind of state grants its nationality to an individual who has lived there for one year?” he wondered. He warned of attempts to alter the demographics in Baghdad should the amendments be approved. MP Ammar Tohme echoed these concerns, telling Asharq Al-Awsat that the amendment has “dangerous flaws,” noting that foreigners displaced in Iraq could obtain the nationality after just one year spent in the country. The law allows people born outside Iraq to non-Iraqi parents to obtain the nationality after spending one year in the country. The parliamentary security and defense committee vowed that it will not approve a law that “violates the Iraqi nationality.” Committee Adnan al-Assadi listed some of its flaws, such as allowing the president to grant the nationality to whomever he deems fit after they spent a year in Iraq. The Interior Minister would also be given the authority to grant the nationality to anyone who has resided in the country for five consecutive years.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 17-18/2019
Rohani seeks ‘channel’ in Iraq to bypass US sanctions
Mamoon Alabbasi/The Arab Weekly/March 17/19
LONDON - As Iran begins to feel the pinch of sanctions imposed by the United States, Iranian leaders are working to secure stronger commercial ties with Iraq and dissuade Baghdad from abiding by punitive measures against Tehran.
Iranian President Hassan Rohani visited Iraq March 11-13 with a large delegation of businessmen and politicians. Rohani and Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi signed several memorandums of understanding on trade and oil as well as for building a railway linking Iraq’s southern Iraqi oil city of Basra to Iran’s border town of Shalamcheh. The two leaders also agreed to make visas for businessmen and investors free of charge.
Bypass US sanctions
Iraq was “another channel for Iran to bypass America’s unjust sanctions… this trip will provide opportunities for Iran’s economy,” a senior Iranian official accompanying Rohani told Reuters.
Officials from the two countries said they wanted to increase bilateral trade from $12 billion per year to $20 billion. Despite wielding heavy influence on Iraqi politicians, Iran is second to Turkey in terms of importing goods to Iraq.
Although European countries objected to the sanctions imposed by the United States, European companies are afraid of doing business with Iran because it could expose them to penalties from Washington.”
“Whatever sector you look at, companies will keep in mind being cut off from the US financial system when deciding whether to trade with Iran,” Mehdi Varzi, an oil consultant who previously worked at the state-run National Iranian Oil Company, told Reuters.
US waiver
The United States has granted Iraq, along with several other countries, a waiver to continue doing business with Iran. That waiver will expire at the end of March for Iraq and it is unknown whether the United States will renew it.
US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook questioned Rohani’s motives for visiting Iraq. “I think what Iran would ultimately like to see happen is Iraq turn into a province of Iran,” Hook told Alhurra TV.
Watheq al-Hishami, director of the Iraq Group for Strategic Studies think-tank, told the Financial Times that “Iran wants to pressure Baghdad not to adhere to the [US] sanctions.”
Repay debt and favours
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh criticised Baghdad in February for failing to pay a $2 billion debt for energy imports. During Rohani’s visit, some $200 million of that debt had reportedly been paid.
Rohani hinted that it’s time for Iraq to pay Iran back for its support to Baghdad in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS). “If the support of the Islamic Republic of Iran didn’t exist then Baghdad and the Kurdistan region would have definitely fallen and ISIS would dominate the region,” he said.
The decision for Rohani to visit Iraq, his first to the neighbouring country since becoming president in 2013, could be indicative of Tehran’s concern about US sanctions and their possible effects on the Iraqi government’s policies.
Special relations?
Rohani boasted that “relations between Iran and Iraq are special” but in the past four years it was a military figure — al-Quds Force commander Major-General Qassem Soleimani — who met with top politicians in Iraq, not the Iranian president.
Rohani’s meeting with Iraq’s most senior Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, was likely an attempt to mend fences with Iraqi Shias critical of Tehran’s influence in Iraq. In the past few years, there has been a rising sentiment against Iran — even among Iraq’s Shia-dominated south — for its support to allegedly corrupt politicians and militias, which protesters say are responsible for the country’s woes.
A statement from Sistani’s office did not shy away from addressing popular Iraqi concerns over Iran. Sistani welcomed “any steps to strengthen Iraq’s relations with its neighbours… based on respect for the sovereignty of the countries and no interference in domestic affairs… The most important challenges facing Iraq are fighting corruption, improving services and keeping weapons in the hands of the state and its security services.”
Iraq's economic needs
Experts said even a willing Iraq is unable to save Iran from its economic woes.
“While Baghdad is set to resist US pressure and maintain close ties with Tehran, it remains to be seen how much it can ease Iran’s pains, especially at a time when Iraq is facing its own challenges in the post-ISIS reconstruction era,” wrote Ellie Geranmayeh for the think-tank European Council on Foreign Relations’ website.
**Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy Managing Editor and Online Editor of The Arab Weekly. You can follow him on Twitter @MamoonAlabbasi

Daraa protests show that city remains outside regime’s orbit
James Snell/The Arab Weekly/March 17/19
CAMBRIDGE, England - Demonstrations took place in the southern Syrian city of Daraa to protest something symbolic.
In the former heartland of Syria’s revolution, protesters gathered March 10 to oppose the refurbishment of a statute depicting Hafez Assad, the father of Syria’s hereditary president, Bashar Assad. Although protesting is hardly alien to Daraa, given its position in more than a decade of open defiance of the Assad regime, this demonstration seemed to mark something new, coming, as it did, after southern Syria was reconquered by the regime and its allies last year.
In other fallen cities, waves of arrests followed their capture and political dissent is heavily controlled, supervised by a state concerned about any criticism that could undermine its survival and claim to legitimacy.
However, this protest took place under the auspices of the regime’s “reconciliation” programme, in which former rebel groups were substantially disarmed but remained in positions of influence in exchange for giving up their struggle against the state. This was under the auspices and with the support of the Assad regime’s Russian backer.
Analyst Ryan O’Farrell said: “When the regime started its offensive, Russia had already been negotiating with important local figures, often tribal heads, to secure the peaceful surrender of towns, which was a huge factor in how quickly Daraa fell.
“In some of them, the rebels were strong enough to get Russia to agree to local autonomy deals whereby the regime would not have a security presence inside the towns, which would still be held by [Free Syrian Army] FSA units, though they had to surrender their heavy weapons.”
The contrast between locations that retained tenuous autonomy and those that did not is striking. “Protests have only been happening in these towns where the regime doesn’t have the kind of security presence that could crack down on them violently, while other towns have seen mass arrests, conscription campaigns and the other forms of repression that the regime carries out everywhere,” O’Farrell said.
The Daraa protesters brought out old slogans opposing the regime while standing in continued opposition to its political project, and were joined by “leaders who brokered the deal to surrender Daraa [and] now have ties to Russia: Adham al-Akrad, Abu Sharif Mahameed [and] Adnan Maasalameh," said Elizabeth Tsurkov, a research fellow at the Forum for Regional Thinking.
The presence of the men seemingly signalled that this political activity was not prohibited. In these areas “people there can continue protesting and will continue to do so until the regime responds,” Tsurkov said.
“We’re already seeing people taking precautionary measures, by covering their faces for example,” she said, adding that “there is a great fear that they will be interrogated eventually by the regime.”
“Right now there is this space in which they can protest thanks to the protection of Russia and these commanders of factions that reconciled with the regime but this can be changed at any moment. This space for dissent can collapse at any moment,” Tsurkov said.
“In my personal assessment, the current situation is not sustainable. Russia will not stay in Syria forever to protect these rebel factions.”
Listing other areas where Russian presence gave way to regime reprisals, Tsurkov noted “when Russia leaves the area, the regime is free to do whatever it wants.”
In Idlib and parts of Aleppo governorate, where the regime and its allies hold no territory, protests continue. They are defiant and showy and less spontaneous than the recent demonstration in Daraa.
Protesters in what some call “free Syria” run many risks and face trouble from local Islamist groups and militias but chanting anti-regime slogans remains an activity that does not invite punishment.
“Amid a campaign of arrests and disappearances in Daraa, it is likely the protesters face grave risk, although the regime is probably more likely at this stage to enact retaliation privately — through abductions — than to actively disperse protests of this size,” US analyst John Arterbury said.
“The potential return of an organic protest movement in Daraa… testifies not only to the deep unpopularity of the regime but to the resilience of civilians willing to put their lives at risk following years of wartime privations and a life lived in an authoritarian state,” Arterbury commented.
Even with the presence of local commanders and the perhaps temporary licence afforded by Russian protection, the protesters know they face tremendous risks in engaging in any political activity that is not officially sponsored and does not meet official sanction. Reprisal will likely come, now or later, as the regime grows in strength and lets its promises lapse. However, Arterbury notes: “Protests in Daraa perhaps more directly challenge the regime’s fundamental power structure and its claims to legitimacy rooted in returning Daraa to its control.”
*James Snell is a British journalist.

Iraq needs to reclaim its country, push Iran out
Tallha Abdulrazaq/The Arab Weekly/March 17/19
Iranian President Hassan Rohani made his first official visit to Iraq to seek deeper bilateral ties and economic partnership in the face of sanctions imposed by the United States that have begun to bite into the ailing Iranian economy.
Before departing Baghdad, Rohani said modern Iraqi-Iranian relations were built on how Tehran “rushed to help” any country in the region seeking its aid, including Iraq.
This was, of course, in reference to the immense Iranian military, economic and political support to the Iraqi government during the crisis caused by the Islamic State (ISIS). What Rohani failed to mention, however, is how Iran’s theocratic regime has been the primary instigator of groups like ISIS in the first place.
Speaking of helping one’s neighbours, which would ordinarily be admirable, I wonder why Rohani and the Iranian regime failed to help prevent the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Not only did they do nothing to hinder the mass slaughter of Iraqis, the destruction of national infrastructure and the illegal occupation of a neighbour they profess to care about, the Iranians actively offered assistance to the then-George W. Bush administration in its plans to invade a sovereign country.
In his book about his time as a senior Bush administration diplomat, Zalmay Khalilzad confirmed that he met with future Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and said the Iranian diplomat agreed US warplanes bombing Iraq back to the Stone Age could stray into Iranian airspace without repercussions.
Khalilzad discussed gaining Tehran’s assistance in encouraging Iraqi Shia parties to engage in a post-Saddam Hussein political order, the fruits of which are clear today with a veritable “who’s who” of pro-Iran Shia Islamists dominating government, state institutions and running violent Shia jihadist militias up and down the country with absolute impunity.
Cognizant of the mullahs’ negative actions in their country’s affairs, Iraqis of all flavours — Sunnis and Shias alike — have continuously demonstrated against Iran’s incessant meddling.
Has Rohani and his boss, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, paid them any heed? Do they care that Iraqis are not asking Iran for help but are, in fact, asking them to get out? Did they rein in their jihadist militias from beating, torturing and killing protesters in Basra, Najaf and elsewhere in the Shia heartland? Or did they turn a blind eye and a deaf ear to what Iraqis really want and set their militants loose on largely defenceless civilians?
Rather than highlighting Iran’s malignant role in Iraq and issuing declarations, just as they did against the United States, denouncing Tehran’s actions, Iraqi politicians have continued to grovel before their Iranian masters. They rolled out the red carpet for Rohani and are absolutely committed to helping Iran evade US-imposed sanctions.
Iraq’s political parties seem oblivious to the fact that voters have stopped showing up, with the last election garnering a paltry 45% turnout. However, they are alive to the fact that, if the Iranian regime falls, they, too, will fall alongside the mullahs they are loyal to over their own people.
These repeated visits by Iranian officials, whether Rohani or Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qassem Soleimani, demonstrate just how insignificant Iraq has become militarily, economically and politically.
Because of Iran’s dubiously masterful manipulation of the United States and leveraging its Shia Islamist proxies into positions of power and influence, Iraq has become Iran’s back garden where it comes and goes as it pleases.
It is up to Iraq’s Arab neighbours to help Iraqis reclaim their country and push Iran’s dangerous influence out once and for all.
*Tallha Abdulrazaq is a researcher at the University of Exeter’s Strategy and Security Institute in England.

US sanctions drying up Iran’s oil income, future prospects
Sabahat Khan/The Arab Weekly/March 17/19
DUBAI - US sanctions on Iran, which took effect in November, have severely reduced exports despite 6-month-long sanctions waivers allowing eight countries to import Iranian oil in reduced volumes.
Those waivers expire May 4 and there are doubts whether Washington will renew them — entirely, in part or even not at all — to force unprecedented economic pressure on Iran.
The effects of the sanctions have grown strong as Iran, the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC, has seen exports dive from more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) before US sanctions were instituted to around 1 million bpd lately.
Iran criticised Italy and Greece, which along with Turkey, China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan were given US sanctions waivers, for not buying Iranian oil despite being able to.
The Iranian Oil Ministry said no European countries were importing its crude and data compiled by Thomson Reuters suggest Iran’s top Asian customers — China, India, Japan and South Korea — have collectively halved imports of Iranian oil in the past year to a total of 710,699 bpd.
A combination of confusion and extra caution concerning shipping, insurance and banking rules have kept some countries from resuming imports of Iranian oil while some of those that have resumed experienced hindrances in shipping and payment issues.
The US exemptions to eight major buyers of Iranian oil have done little for Iran to recover its oil export levels since sanctions were enforced.
With the May 4 deadline in sight, the US government is yet to clarify whether it will renew waivers to the eight countries. However, a stated US policy is to drive Iranian exports to zero as part of an intensifying US effort to pressure Iran on its regional role and strategy.
Analysts anticipate that Washington will decide closer to the time and base its decision on the price of oil at the time — note that US President Donald Trump has openly called for and been keen to maintain lower oil prices at a time of stuttering global economic growth.
However, as Brian Hook, the US special representative for Iran, pointed out in January at the Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi, when Trump withdrew from the Iranian nuclear agreement the price of Iranian oil was $74 a barrel. By the time sanctions had taken effect and Iranian oil exports had fallen by almost 1 million bpd, the price of Iranian oil was $72 a barrel.
A temporary respite for Iran has been some resumption of Asian oil purchases from China, India, Japan and South Korea, following a lull in which they needed to report on how much and under what conditions oil purchases from Iran were taking place.
However, Takashi Tsukioka, president of the Petroleum Association of Japan, stated that while Japanese refiners plan to resume loading of Iranian crude and leave open options beyond May, this will stop by May in the absence of clarity over the extension of US sanctions waivers.
Recent efforts by Iran to disable satellite tracking systems on its very large crude carriers to disguise shipments and restrict access to production and export figures have been unable to stem the tide.
Iran has also been coordinating with India to work out a sanctions-busting alternative payment method for oil trade but that would involve Iran buying basmati rice and sugar from India in exchange for oil, hardly a sustainable mechanism.
Iran’s major oil-producing Gulf rivals, in particular, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have been ensuring any deficits in oil availability are covered.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz’s recent high-profile tour of Asia was the latest reminder of the strategic moves by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to position themselves in the rapidly growing Asian market with a series of significant joint ventures, supplier deals and share acquisitions in oil refining, storage and petrochemicals sectors.
Iran’s economy has been hit hard since November 2018. In February, in a speech marking the anniversary of the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iranian President Hassan Rohani said Iran was facing its most difficult economic conditions.
The Iranian rial has dropped from 32,000 to the dollar at the time of the nuclear agreement to more than 133,000 and inflation in some key staple foods has risen as much as 250%. Iran’s economic woes will worsen in the year ahead if it is unable to adopt Financial Action Task Force’s standards targeting anti-money laundering and terrorism financing, a move being driven strongly by the Americans.
*Sabahat Khan is a senior analyst at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA).

New Zealand massacre a wake-up call as chilling world order looms
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/March 17/19
There are two possible responses to the slaughter of 50 people in two New Zealand mosques last week. We can either make do with Donald Trump’s cursory expression of “warmest sympathy and best wishes” to victims’ families or we can interpret this atrocity as a stark symptom of malignant trends engulfing our world — a wake-up call.
The attacker — and let’s call him a terrorist — was part of an online network of far-right figures, not all of whom advocate mass murder, but who have vigorously incited hatred against Jews, Muslims, minorities and immigrants. The internet and media act as an inflammatory feedback loop: Far-right meatheads were once marginalized, deluded individuals, laboriously typing and photocopying their frenzied ideas for sharing with like-minded neighborhood ghouls. The Christchurch attacks exemplify how hatemongering has mutated into a globalized, postmodern phenomenon; streamed live online for consumption and inspiration to fascists around the world.
Extreme right attacks masquerade as vengeance against “radical Islamic terrorism.” Yet, in their barbaric actions, online propaganda and strident incitement, they are indistinguishable from Daesh. The radicals of Al-Qaeda were succored within a wider milieu of anti-Western sentiments, and far-right ideologies are likewise nourished in a climate where racist anti-immigrant demonization has become normalized.
The perpetrator of the New Zealand attacks expressed admiration for Trump and drew inspiration from the alt-right media, which amplifies the US president’s xenophobic worldview. Trump did not describe the attacks as terrorism. His reaction contrasts with the compassionate but resolute response from New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her nation, expressing solidarity with the many victims.
The massacre in a Pittsburgh synagogue last October exemplified an escalating pattern of attacks against places of worship, including a Sikh temple in Wisconsin, an Islamic center in Quebec, and nine African-Americans killed by a white supremacist in a South Carolina church. During 2017, there averaged two attacks every week against US mosques. The same crazed hatred is at work in attacks by Daesh against Shiite mosques and Coptic churches.
To avoid electoral defeat, Benjamin Netanyahu is cynically dealing with an alliance of extreme-right factions that advocate the forced transfer of Palestinians living in Israel. Jewish Power is an offshoot of Kach — a terrorist organization designated by the US. One candidate proudly displays a huge picture of Baruch Goldstein, the terrorist who in 1994 gunned down 29 Palestinian worshippers, in his living room. What kind of world do we live in when someone who glorifies such atrocities is active in national-level politics?
Attacks against worshippers in far-off places are a warning that soon the fascists and demagogues will be coming for our rights and freedoms
As with Muslim communities, the number of white xenophobes willing to commit murder is vanishingly small. Yet the racist tendencies that nourish such extremism have infected the global mainstream and the corridors of power. Demagogic European autocrats in Hungary, Austria, Poland and Italy mobilize credulous publics and the media against minorities as a cynical gambit for monopolizing the state. The radical left similarly seethes with anti-Semitism and intolerance.
The post-communist, liberal democratic global consensus was previously so unassailable that even dictators like Bashar Assad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei staged sham elections to burnish their legitimacy. Autocratic states were perceived as relics from history that would eventually “evolve” into mature democracies. Today this teleological clock has been thrown into reverse. Populist autocrats are in the ascendency, while liberal politicians are on the defensive or banished to the political wilderness.
Dictators and fundamentalists begin as populists. Extremists like Daesh gain localized strength by offering support networks to marginalized peoples neglected by the state. The violent imposition of repressive ideologies comes only after becoming firmly entrenched. Hezbollah gained a stranglehold in Lebanon through similar tactics. In the “civilized” West, anti-liberal tendencies hijack the state and the media by demonizing minorities, exploiting rhetoric about “white genocide” and “refugee swarms.” Then comes suppression of the press, subverting institutions, rigging elections, and the repression of oppositionists. Attacks against mosques and synagogues by over-zealous supporters are a symptom of this all-pervading strangulation of tolerance and freedoms.
Muslims shouldn’t be angry about the New Zealand attacks because they are Muslims, but because they are human beings. Demonization of difference, whether by Daesh or the Ku Klux Klan, is foremost an attack on humanity. Attacks against worshippers in far-off places are a warning that soon the fascists and demagogues will be coming for our rights and freedoms.
I fail to value freedom of speech because I’ve always enjoyed this right. But these fundamental rights risk extermination within this rapidly encroaching world order, not just in fragile states like Iraq, the Philippines and Eritrea, or even Turkey, China, Brazil and Russia, but within the liberal fortress of the West itself, all the way to the White House. Even Britain has imploded into political anarchy as Brexit tensions unleash radical nationalist and extreme leftist tendencies. Human rights aren’t abstract philosophical postulates, but the floodgate that prevents us being deluged within a Stalinist dystopia.
As politicians either embrace this populist tsunami or stand like rabbits in headlights, we are the only bulwark against this authoritarian dark age, where freedoms from torture, state surveillance and arbitrary detention have been cast to the wind. Genocide has been perpetrated against the Rohingya, 1 million Chinese Uighurs have been interned, and tens of thousands of Syrians murdered in prison, with scarcely a whimper from the world.
If we accept such phenomena as an inextricable part of our world, then they become an inextricable part of our world — they become our future. The New Zealand killings were a wake-up call, but only if we choose to wake up and act decisively together to halt these authoritarian hatemongers in their tracks.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view