LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 07/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Whatever you ask for in prayer, believe that you have received it, and it will be yours
Mark 11/19-25./:”And when evening came, Jesus and his disciples went out of the city. In the morning as they passed by, they saw the fig tree withered away to its roots. Then Peter remembered and said to him, ‘Rabbi, look! The fig tree that you cursed has withered.’Jesus answered them, ‘Have faith in God. Truly I tell you, if you say to this mountain, “Be taken up and thrown into the sea”, and if you do not doubt in your heart, but believe that what you say will come to pass, it will be done for you. So I tell you, whatever you ask for in prayer, believe that you have received it, and it will be yours. ‘Whenever you stand praying, forgive, if you have anything against anyone; so that your Father in heaven may also forgive you your trespasses.”.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 06-07/2020
Hasan Says Coronavirus No Longer Contained in Lebanon as Cases Rise to 22
Lebanon's Virus Panel Recommends Closure of Schools, Universities, Nightclubs, Sport Clubs
Lebanese Army Denies Coronavirus Cases
Bekaa Residents Fear 'Chaos' over Travelers Coming From Iran By Land/Sanaa el-Jack/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 06/2020
Lebanon Tribunal to Issue Verdicts in Hariri Case in Mid-May
BDL Issues Circular to ‘Regulate’ Money Exchange Operations
Speaker Affirms ‘Noninterference’ in Judiciary’s Work
Diab to Declare Saturday Lebanon's Stance on Eurobond Debt
Lebanon moves to control spiraling unofficial exchange rate
Lebanon State Prosecutor Blocks Order to Freeze Bank Assets
Lebanese Insurance Market Faces Mounting Uncertainty
U.S contractor accused of leaking classified information to Lebanon's Hezbollah/Georgi Azar/Annahar/March 06/2020
Foreign Domestic Workers: The neglected victims of the dollar crisis/Nessryn Khalaf/Annahar/March 06/2020
Hezbollah and the killing fields of Idlib/Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/March 06/2020
Memoirs of Abdulaziz Khoja: I Had Warm Relations With Nasrallah That Ended After 3 Assassination Attempts – Part 2/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 March, 2020
Kelly: Ghosn's Second-in-Charge Now First in Firing Line/Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 06/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 06-07/2020
Adviser to Iran's FM Zarif Dies of Coronavirus
Iranian MP Fatema Rahbar in ‘critical condition’ due to coronavirus
Two of Iran’s Khamenei advisors, vice presidents infected with coronavirus
Iranian authorities threaten use of ‘force’ to halt travel amid coronavirus
U.S. Blocks U.N. Statement Backing Syria Ceasefire
Assad Expresses 'Satisfaction' over Idlib Truce Deal
Russia’s Putin tells Syria’s al-Assad ceasefire will stabilize Idlib
EU to Hold Donor Conference for Syria, Urges Aid Access
Policeman Killed in Suicide Bombing outside US Embassy in Tunis
Ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib is being observed: Reports
As Syria Ceasefire Begins, Turkish Lira Firms Slightly
Fifteen dead after clashes in Syria’s Idlib despite ceasefire: Report
Ceasefire will allow more EU aid for Syria's Idlib: Top diplomat
Turkish military posts in Syria’s Idlib will stand after ceasefire
Top Iraq cleric Sistani's sermon cancelled over coronavirus, a first since 2003
Arab Voters Key to Blocking Netanyahu-led Hardline Majority
Bethlehem Under Lockdown over Coronavirus
Taliban could ‘possibly’ seize power after US leaves: US President Trump
US seeks UN backing for Taliban peace deal

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 06-07/2020
Question: "Did Jesus mean we should literally pluck out our eyes and cut off our hands in Matthew 5:29-30 and 18:8-9?"/GotQuestions.org
What Is Left for Nusra Front to Say?/Akram Bunni/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 06/2020
Iran: The Train Hits Something Hard/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 06/2020
How Fast Can a Virus Destroy a Supply Chain?/Tyler Cowen/Bloomberg/March 06/2020
Coronavirus Sure Doesn’t Seem ‘Very Well Under Control’/Mark Gongloff/Bloomberg/March, 06/2020
Europe Must Not Fall Victim to Erdoğan's Blackmail/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/March 06/2020
Don't Expect a Turkey-Russia War in Syria/Jonathan Spyer/The Jerusalem Post/March 06/2020
Joe Biden: Comeback kid or default candidate?/Marco Vicenzino/Al Arabiya/March 06/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 06-07/2020
Hasan Says Coronavirus No Longer Contained in Lebanon as Cases Rise to 22
Naharnet/March 06/2020
Health Minister Hamad Hasan on Friday warned that the COVID-19 coronavirus is no longer in the containment phase in Lebanon after “four cases of unknown source” were recorded. The Rafik Hariri University Hospital later confirmed six new infections, which raises Lebanon's overall tally to 22. Hasan clarified that the four cases he spoke of included a Lebanese man who had arrived from Egypt and a Lebanese woman who had arrived from Britain in recent days. Hasan voiced his remarks at a press conference he held at the Bouar state-run hospital after inspecting several government hospitals. “All state-run hospitals have proven that they are the second line of defense – the first is the family,” Hasan said. Noting that “an uncalculated development occurred over the past 48 hours,” the minister announced that cases from countries not listed as hotbeds of the virus have “leaked into our Lebanese society,” referring to a Lebanese man who visited Egypt and a Lebanese woman who was in the UK. MTV reported that the cases confirmed in Lebanon on Friday include a nurse and a patient at the Notre Dame des Secours hospital in Jbeil who had come in contact with the Lebanese man coming from Egypt.
The Lebanese woman coming from the UK had been admitted into the American University of Beirut Medical Center before being transferred to the country’s quarantine center at the Rafik Hariri University Hospital. The man coming from Egypt was also transferred to the Hariri hospital.
LBCI TV said five of the six cases confirmed on Friday had contracted the virus through contact with other patients and that the sixth case is being investigated. The Rafik Hariri University Hospital said 87 individuals had been admitted into its coronavirus emergency section over the past 24 hours and that only 20 were kept in the hospital’s quarantined ward, as a precaution, based on the evaluation of the overseeing doctor. The others were asked to observe home isolation. “Lab tests were conducted for 127 cases of which 121 tested negative and six positive,” it added.
Twenty people meanwhile were discharged from the hospital’s quarantined ward after testing negative while 19 remain in preventative quarantine. Adding that 21 infected patients are now in the hospital’s isolation unit, RHUH noted that a patient is being quarantined at another hospital.
“The Iranian patient and the one transferred from the Notre Dame des Secours hospital are still in critical condition while the other 19 patients are in a stable condition,” the hospital added. Coronavirus has infected more than 100,000 people across 91 countries globally, according to an AFP tally published Friday evening. The death toll reached 3,406, while the total number of infections hit 100,002, after a surge in cases worldwide since Thursday at 1700 GMT, notably in virus hotspot Iran.
The figures were compiled from data collected by AFP offices from the competent national authorities and information from the World Health Organization (WHO).

Lebanon's Virus Panel Recommends Closure of Schools, Universities, Nightclubs, Sport Clubs
Naharnet/March 06/2020
Lebanon’s government-linked anti-coronavirus committee on Friday recommended extending the closure of educational institutions and nurseries until March 14 and called for shutting down sport clubs, nightclubs, cinemas, fairs, theaters and other venues that witness gatherings. The panel also recommended calling on all citizens to “avoid gatherings and abide by the Health Ministry’s health instructions, especially as to safe distance between individuals, direct contact with others and the rest of the directions.”Religious authorities will meanwhile be contacted to “address the issue of crowdedness in places of worship” and the measures related to the entry and exit of passengers through Lebanon’s aerial, land and maritime ports of entry will be re-circulated. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation will also be asked to communicate with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) to “clarify the adopted measures related to the COVID-19 coronavirus at the Rafik Hariri International Airport.”The Rafik Hariri University Hospital on Friday confirmed six new coronavirus cases, which raises Lebanon's overall tally to 22. Health Minister Hamad Hasan earlier in the day warned that Lebanon is no longer in the “containment phase” regarding the virus, citing the arrival of infected Lebanese citizens from countries not categorized as hotbeds of the virus, such as Egypt and the UK.

Lebanese Army Denies Coronavirus Cases
Naharnet/March 06/2020
The Lebanese Army assured on Friday that its troops are in good health denying rumors of coronavirus cases among its ranks. In an official statement, the army said that precautionary measures are taken to prevent infections with the COVID-19 disease, noting that no cases were reported among its troops. The army urged media outlets to be accurate when reporting about the military institution.
Lebanon's coronavirus cases rose to 16 on Thursday.

Bekaa Residents Fear 'Chaos' over Travelers Coming From Iran By Land
Sanaa el-Jack/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 06/2020
Lebanese Health Minister Hamad Hasan said every Lebanese has the right to return home. His comments came in reply to measures taken to allow 400 Lebanese students who are supposed to return from Iran through the Damascus airport reaching the Masnaa border crossing between Lebanon and Syria.
"Every Lebanese citizen has the right to return to his country, no matter in which state he resides around the world," he said, citing Lebanon's constitution. Residents of nearby areas say they are afraid of the info blackout over the matter. They criticized the lack of procedures, especially not demanding the arrivals to were masks and gloves. Residents also did not hide their lack of confidence in the measures taken by the Ministry of Health, and their fear of the virus' spread, while others mocked statements claiming that the travelers coming to the country from Iran were all students.
They noted that only a few of them were young and that most of them were above the age of 40, in addition to elderlies. Others who were at the border crossing said that some of them were not even Lebanese.
Nasser Abou Zeid, the mayor of the town of Majdal Anjar which is adjacent to Masnaa said to Asharq Al-Awsat: “The Lebanese government does not allow those returning from Iran to enter Lebanon through the airport, only to facilitate their entry through the Syrian border. This issue is stirring controversy; they should not be allowed to come in from anywhere”.
Regarding claims that there were none-Lebanese among the arrivals, the mayor said: “Of course, we saw many Iranians and Pakistanis and others carrying various passports who are sent by Iran to Syria. He said they have always entered through the Masnaa crossing under protection, long before the outbreak. They usually entered after midnight and in large numbers. They used to come in buses whose passengers are unknown. Approaching them is forbidden, and no one reviews the regulations that are prepared for their entry. It is said that most of the passengers on these buses enter Lebanon to take part in Hezbollah's training camps. Abou Zeid demands that "these people be quarantined for the necessary and well-established period as they are subjected to laboratory tests, otherwise the disaster will take place soon”. Joseph Ayoub, a public health doctor based in west Bekaa, agrees that the measures being taken by the ministry of health are inadequate. “The thermometer used to measure the body temperature of those arriving in Lebanon is not precise in the first place, and this measure is not sufficient to confirm whether or not the person is infected. What is most dangerous is the confirming of the absence of the virus. Even the clinical examination is not enough. The only effective technique is available at Beirut Hospital, which conducts laboratory tests that look for the composition of the Coronavirus." Ayoub warns that “the state is unable to prevent the spread of the virus. The number of beds in West Bekaa and Rachaya hospitals, for example, ranging between 150 to 200 beds is not enough. However, people’s awareness is encouraging. The majority are avoiding gatherings which bring large numbers of people together. They are also taking the necessary precautions and paying attention to their hygiene. One of the residents told us that “people avoid visiting those returning from Iran and avoid attending funerals, satisfying themselves with expressing their condolences over the phone.

Lebanon Tribunal to Issue Verdicts in Hariri Case in Mid-May
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 March, 2020
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon announced Thursday that it will deliver its verdicts in the case of the 2005 assassination of ex-PM Rafik Hariri and his companions in a public session in May 2020. "The Trial Chamber of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon has given notice that it will deliver its Judgment in the Ayyash et al. case (STL-11-01) in public session in mid-May 2020," the court said in an official statement. Last February, the court issued a decision to proceed with a trial in absentia against Salim Jamil Ayyash who is accused of terrorism and intentional homicide.
He is one of four Hezbollah members tried in absentia by the tribunal for masterminding the truck bombing that killed Hariri and 21 others and wounded more than 220 passers-by on February 14, 2005.

BDL Issues Circular to ‘Regulate’ Money Exchange Operations
Naharnet/March 06/2020
Lebanon’s central bank issued a circular on Friday with the purpose of “regulating” the operations of money exchange houses in light of uncontrolled prices of the U.S. dollar to the Lebanese pound. The circular asked money exchange houses to “exceptionally abide by the maximum purchase price of foreign currencies against the Lebanese pound without exceeding 30% of the price determined by Banque Du Liban (BDL) in its dealings with banks.”It also said the exchange process must take into account the percentage announced in the circular. This decision shall be enforced for a period of six months from the date of its issuance. On Thursday, the price of U.S. dollar to the Lebanese pound recorded a new increase at the parallel market reaching LBP 2,680 for buying and LBP 2,600 for selling. Earlier, Money changers were selling the dollar for more than LBP 2,550 and buying it for around 2,540. Money changers in protests-hit Lebanon did not abide by a decision they agreed on in January to cap the dollar exchange rate at 2,000 pounds as part of efforts to curb the local currency's devaluation on the parallel market.The Lebanese pound is officially pegged to the greenback at a rate of 1,500 to the dollar but the country's sharp economic downturn has sent the currency into a tailspin in foreign exchange offices.

Speaker Affirms ‘Noninterference’ in Judiciary’s Work
Naharnet/March 06/2020
Speaker Nabih Berri said no interference was made on his part into a judicial decision--suspended later-- that froze the assets of twenty Lebanese banks, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday. The Speaker has reportedly told the daily that he had no prior knowledge of Financial Prosecutor Judge Ali Ibrahim’s decision, and that it was brought to his attention after it was issued. Slamming claims circulated by some that he personally stands behind Ibrahim’s decision, he said: “We have nothing to do with it whatsoever. “Let it be known that since I assumed the ministry of justice in the past until now, I have never interfered in the work of the judiciary and I am keen to respect its privacy. I will not change my behaviour,” stressed Berri. On Thursday, Ibrahim put a “prevention of disposal” signal on the assets of twenty Lebanese banks and imposed a freeze on the assets of the heads and members of boards of directors of these banks. But later, Lebanon's attorney general Ghassan Oueidat suspended the order over concerns about its impact on the country's fragile economy.

Diab to Declare Saturday Lebanon's Stance on Eurobond Debt
Naharnet/March 06/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab will on Saturday announce Lebanon’s official stance on whether or not to pay a $1.2 billion Eurobond debt that matures on March 9, TV networks said. Diab will declare the position in an address to the nation at 6:30 pm, the networks said.
“So far, no decisive choice has been reached. Each choice is being separately assessed with its legal and financial repercussions,” LBCI TV reported. “These choice will be discussed in Cabinet on Saturday in the presence of Lebanese and foreign experts,” the TV network added, noting that “the choice of paying the debt has become highly unlikely.” “The options of orderly and unorderly default are also being studied with their repercussions and there is a third option, which is partial payment and negotiating on the remaining part,” LBCI added. It said that President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and Diab will hold a meeting prior to the Cabinet session, noting that they might be joined by other officials. Economists have warned that paying the March 9 Eurobend debt on time would eat away at Lebanon’s plummeting foreign currency reserves, while bankers say a default would damage the country’s reputation with lenders. Bank of America Merill Lynch in a November report estimated that around 50 percent of Eurobonds were held by local banks, while the central bank had around 11 percent. Foreign investors owned the remainder, or around 39 percent, it said. But these figures may have changed, with local media reporting that local banks have recently sold a chunk of their Eurobonds to foreign lenders.

Lebanon moves to control spiraling unofficial exchange rate
AFP, Beirut/Friday, 6 March 2020
Lebanon's central bank on Friday sought to rein in exchange rates and enforce a cap on the local currency in the parallel market to contain its unofficial devaluation. Central bank chief Riad Salameh asked “all exchange offices, under pain of legal or administrative sanctions, to commit exceptionally to a maximum buying price for foreign currency in Lebanese pounds of no more than 30 percent above the exchange rate set by the central bank to deal with lenders.”The official exchange rate has stood at 1,507 Lebanese pounds to the dollar for decades, but the value of the local currency has plummeted to more than 2,600 on the black market. Money changers in protest-hit Lebanon had agreed in January to cap the dollar exchange at 2,000 pounds, but the move has failed to stem spiraling rates. How Lebanon’s dollar shortage sparked an economic crisis. Friday's central bank order, which reinforces the January agreement, is to apply for the next six months, according to the statement carried by state-run National News Agency. Debt-ridden Lebanon is facing its most serious economic crisis since the end of its 1975-1990 civil war. Banks have increasingly limited dollar withdrawals and transfers abroad to stem a severe liquidity crisis, even as the tanking economy has caused businesses to slash salaries, fire staff, or close. The country has been rocked by unprecedented, nationwide protests in recent months, led by young people who blame government corruption and incompetence for the lack of jobs and basic services.

Lebanon State Prosecutor Blocks Order to Freeze Bank Assets
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 March, 2020
Lebanese State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat has suspended an order to freeze the assets of 20 local banks, warning it would plunge the country and its financial sector into chaos. Financial Prosecutor Ali Ibrahim questioned bank chairmen this week over transfers abroad and recent sales of Eurobonds to foreign funds. Ibrahim issued an order on Thursday to freeze the assets of the banks, their top bosses and boards as part of a probe, state media and judicial sources. But Oueidat, who suspended the assets freeze, said: "Such a move would send the country, as well as its monetary, financial and economic sectors into chaos." Local lenders are at the heart of a financial crisis crippling Lebanon as the clock runs down on its looming debt maturities, including a $1.2 billion Eurobond due on March 9. The government will meet on Saturday to take a decision, after Speaker Nabih Berri said a majority of lawmakers oppose paying, even if that leads to default. “The country is passing through very difficult times and we are doing all we can to ease the hardship," Information Minister Manal Abdul-Samad quoted Prime Minister Hassan Diab as saying during a Cabinet meeting on Thursday. "We are studying all alternatives, possibilities and scenarios. What is important for us is to rescue the country." The banks, which for years funneled deposits to the state, hold the bulk of the sovereign debt and have been in discord with political powers over the March repayment.

Lebanese Insurance Market Faces Mounting Uncertainty
Associated Press/Naharnet/March 06/2020
Lebanon has a long history of economic and political instability. In the past, local insurers have been successful at navigating this challenging environment. However, recent civil unrest and a ballooning public debt have increased the level of economic uncertainty, which is negatively impacting the credit quality of Lebanon's insurance market.In a new Best's Special Report, "Lebanese Insurance Market Faces Mounting Uncertainty", AM Best notes that in contrast with the wider Middle East and North Africa region, the Lebanese insurance market overall has an asset allocation that favors high levels of cash and fixed income instruments over higher risk investments. Nonetheless, the vast majority of Lebanese insurers' investments are exposed to domestic issuers, and consequently to the socio-economic and political turmoil the country is experiencing. Specifically, uncertainties regarding the credit quality of Lebanese government debt pose the most imminent threat to domestic insurers' balance sheets. AM Best maintains close contact with the companies it rates in Lebanon and notes that they have been able to maintain robust, albeit reduced, levels of risk-adjusted capitalization (as measured by Best's Capital Adequacy Ratio [BCAR]), underpinned by a generally low level of underwriting leverage. That said, the increased social, political and economic instability in the country since October 2019 has exacerbated structural market issues that, in AM Best's opinion, could further weaken insurers' balance sheet strength.
Since the onset of the popular protests, AM Best-rated insurers have been proactive in implementing appropriate risk management actions. Measures have included triggering partial contingency plans, shifting investment exposure where possible and closely monitoring cash flows to limit the impact of a potential devaluation of the Lebanese pound. Despite these actions, the mounting level of uncertainty in Lebanon implies that operating conditions could deteriorate further, AM Best said.

U.S contractor accused of leaking classified information to Lebanon's Hezbollah
Georgi Azar/Annahar/March 06/2020
U.S Federal prosecutors accuse Mariam Taha Thompson, 61, of leaking the names of U.S. intelligence sources and compromising their identities while on active duty.
BEIRUT: A U.S Defense Department linguist was charged with espionage Wednesday for allegedly supplying classified information to a Lebanese national with links to the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah. U.S Federal prosecutors accuse Mariam Taha Thompson, 61, of leaking the names of U.S. intelligence sources and compromising their identities while on active duty. "If true, this conduct is a disgrace, especially for someone serving as a contractor with the United States military," Assistant Attorney General John Demers said. "This betrayal of country and colleagues will be punished," he added.
Thompson was arrested by FBI agents at a U.S. military facility in Erbil, Iraq, where she held a top-secret government security clearance. “While in a war zone, the defendant allegedly gave sensitive national defense information, including the names of individuals helping the United States, to a Lebanese national located overseas," he said.
On the day protesters stormed the U.S. embassy in Iraq in response to U.S. airstrikes against Iranian-backed forces in Iraq, Thompson allegedly sought access to classified information that was unconnected to her duties. This raised suspicion which then led to a court-authorized search of Thompson's living quarters on February 19, 2020 and the discovery of a handwritten note in Arabic concealed under her mattress. "Specifically, during a six-week period...Thompson accessed dozens of files concerning human intelligence sources, including true names, personal identification data, background information and the photographs of the human assets," prosecutors claimed. The U.S accuse Thompson of transmitting the classified information in a handwritten note to her Lebanese co-conspirator, with whom she had "a romantic interest.""The FBI’s investigation revealed that Thompson knew the co-conspirator was a foreign national whose relative worked for the Lebanese government," Demers said. "The investigation also revealed that the co-conspirator has apparent connections to Hezballah. Further investigation revealed that, in a separate communication, Thompson also provided information to her co-conspirator identifying another human asset and the information the asset had provided to the United States, as well as providing information regarding the techniques the human assets were using to gather information on behalf of the United States."
Thompson was charged with "Delivering Defense Information to Aid a Foreign Government in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 794(a) and conspiring to do so in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 794(c)." If convicted, Thompson faces a maximum punishment of life in prison.
Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by both the U.S and U.K.

Foreign Domestic Workers: The neglected victims of the dollar crisis
Nessryn Khalaf/Annahar/March 06/2020
Annahar also asked the owner of a domestic worker recruitment agency in Beirut how the current economic plight has affected his business.
BEIRUT: The dollar crisis in Lebanon has generated a precarious monetary reality that is harming people on different scales, from Lebanese with limited options to secure liquidity, to importers whose jobs are on the line. However, a neglected segment of victims comprises of the foreign domestic workers residing in Lebanon whose remittances to their home countries have not only been affected, but also reduced. Annahar asked a few of them how the fluctuating exchange rate of the Lebanese pound is affecting their salaries, and Adrika Sarkar from Bangladesh expressed nothing but dismay.
“The last time I received my salary in dollars was in September; after that, my employers insisted on paying me the same amount of $200 but at the official exchange rate of 1,500 L.L.,” Sarkar noted. She added that since she has to transfer the money to her family in dollars, the value of her remittances has decreased drastically and her family keeps calling to ask for more money.
Dilipa Jayakody from Sri Lanka is another victim of the crisis, as she has been working in Lebanon for the past 6 years and only now has begun contemplating the necessity to seek work in a different Arab country. “My employers are like second parents to me, and the only reason I have agreed to stay with them until my contract is terminated in June is that they promised to provide me with dollars by then,” Jayakody told Annahar.
As for Nyala Deresse from Ethiopia, not only are her employers refusing to pay her in dollars as stated in her contract, but they are also refusing to secure her salary in Lebanese pounds. “The last time they paid me was in December, and even though I received my salary in Lebanese pounds at the exchange rate of 1,800 L.L., I was content because I needed to send money to my mother and daughter," she said. Annahar also asked the owner of a domestic worker recruitment agency in Beirut how the current economic plight has affected his business. “Every week, the agency receives several calls from disturbed domestic workers who are either not being paid or are receiving their salaries in Lebanese pounds at the official exchange rate, and while we cannot force their employers to pay them in dollars, we are doing our best to resolve their disputes,” he explained.
He also added that many agencies in Lebanon are enduring losses right now because no foreign worker wants to come work in a household to earn in Lebanese pounds and employers cannot afford to pay in dollars either, and he may even shut down his agency in the next few months if this situation persists.
“Affording to pay for help at home from a foreign worker has become a luxury not only to the middle classes but also to the upper classes, for they too are struggling with the rigorous banking restrictions on the withdrawal of dollars,” he added.

Hezbollah and the killing fields of Idlib
Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/March 06/2020
In November 2016, Hezbollah celebrated its occupation of the Syrian city of al-Qusayr by throwing a military parade that showcased the Iranian militia’s hardware as well as its elite troops that have fought in Syria since the start of the revolution that set out to topple the Syrian regime and dictator Bashar al-Assad. Despite local and international outrage at the time, Hezbollah maintained that its involvement in the conflict on Assad’s side was a defensive tactic to protect the Shia religious sanctuaries in Syria and the Lebanese border towns from attacks of Sunni extremist groups, such as the al-Nusra Front and later ISIS. Hezbollah’s recent involvement in the battle for northern Syria and its subsequent losses against Turkey has debunked Hezbollah’s stated reasons for its involvement, and has exposed it as merely a tool for Iran’s regional pursuits, far removed from the safety or strategic interest of Lebanon or the Shia community that it claims to protect. Since the start of the Syrian war in 2011, Hezbollah has lost more than 1,500 fighters estimates say, which is fairly high considering the entire Lebanese population is around 6 million, including 1-1.5 million refugees, and that these elite fighters are not easily replaced as some of them have over three decades of operational and field experience. But the recent casualties that Hezbollah has suffered in Idlib – with 14 confirmed deaths so far – are somewhat different, as it places further pressure on them within their own Shia constituency in Lebanon that has historically agreed to send their children to fight in Syria, as long as it is justifiable.
Fighting and dying to protect the shrine of Sit Zeinab, the granddaughter of Prophet Mohamad and the daughter of Imam Ali, or other religious shrines near the Lebanese-Syrian border is a great honor for Hezbollah supporters. Yet losing one’s life hundreds of miles away from any shrine in Idlib while trying to lead the forces of the defunct Assad regime is neither honorable nor noble.
Furthermore, these casualties are hard to justify, even for someone like Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah who spins his party's spearheading of Iran’s expansionist projects as one that aims to empower and protect the Shia and the broader Lebanese population.
The video recording of one of Hezbollah’s fighters, belonging to the elite Ridwan commando unit, believed to have been recorded minutes before he died, reveals the tragedy that Hezbollah members are subjected to through their continued involvement in the Syrian war. This smiling young man in his twenties reminds everyone, including Nasrallah, that Hezbollah fighters are willing to die for the sake of Fatima al-Zahara the daughter of prophet Mohamad, yet the fighter laments he is in fact dying for nothing, despite his unit’s gallant fighting. Leaked voice notes and videos of other Hezbollah militants in Idlib have confirmed that Russia has consciously failed to provide Hezbollah with much-needed aerial support and has equally allowed the Turkish air force to pick Hezbollah and Assad troops out with surgical accuracy.
In an ironic twist of fate, at least for Hezbollah, some of these ISIS fighters in Idlib are the same ones that Hezbollah helped escape in the summer of 2017 when it brokered a deal that allowed thousands of fighters to evacuate aboard air-conditioned buses.
Moreover, the involvement of Iran’s top militia in the fighting across the region reveals how spread out and overwhelmed Iran is, and how the fate of its militias rests in a decrepit Assad regime that cannot survive on its own. Fighting to keep the Assad regime in place has become a liability rather than an asset. Hezbollah and Iran might have won many battles in Syria, but they are far away from winning any war, as wars are won by large armies with strong economies and allies and not by parading their vehicles and their martyrs to the public.
While Nasrallah will undoubtedly use the death of his men to mobilize his support base, as he has done before, he is more likely to clash with many who see the fighting in Idlib as counterproductive, not to say suicidal for the Shia who are facing economic hardship locally as well as being forced into a conventional military confrontation between Russia and Turkey they are not equipped nor ready for.
The battle for Idlib is an additional reminder to the Lebanese and to the rest of the world that Iran’s continued influence rests in its ability to cause trouble. By turning a blind eye and hoping that Iran and Hezbollah will do the right thing and stop their regional games, the world is mistaken. These hopes of a rational and compromising Hezbollah have been killed and buried in the killing fields of Idlib.
*Makram Rabah is a lecturer at the American University of Beirut, Department of History.

Memoirs of Abdulaziz Khoja: I Had Warm Relations With Nasrallah That Ended After 3 Assassination Attempts – Part 2
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 March, 2020
In the second part of an article dedicated to the memoirs of Former Saudi minister, Ambassador Abdulaziz Khoja, Asharq Al-Awsat has chosen excerpts of his book, in which he shed light on an important stage of his diplomatic career, when he assumed the position of Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Beirut - a period that saw the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005.
The book, published by Jadawel publishing, translation, and distribution house in Beirut, unveils secrets of Ambassador Khoja’s diplomatic work and his description of some of the most prominent political leaders whom he met throughout his journey.
The Saudi Embassy in Beirut
Khoja reveals episodes of the many meetings he had held at the time with Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Before touching on the assassination and its repercussions, Khoja depicts the rise of Rafik Hariri in the aftermath of the Lebanese war, and says that the latter "had a special and intimate relationship with the leaders of Saudi Arabia.”
“On the other hand, he did not have a good relationship with Syria during the era of Bashar al-Assad, despite his efforts to bridge the rift and to reform Syria’s relations with France and America under Hafez al-Assad. At the time, Rafik Hariri was considered Syria’s foreign minister,” the book recounts, as unofficially translated into English by Asharq Al-Awsat.
He notes that the Syrian regime was trying to impose its full hegemony over Lebanon. “The [regime’s] representative, Ghazi Kanaan, and after him Rustom Ghazaleh, resembled the High Commissioner in colonial times, giving orders, threatening and executing…”
Lebanon was going through a very transformative period in the 1990s, Khoja says, adding that the influence of Hezbollah was increasing, as Nasrallah began to “startlingly gain attention in his fiery Arabism speeches, which had an attractive effect on the listeners.”
“People were mesmerized by him, especially after the success of the resistance in ousting the Israelis from southern Lebanon in 2000, except for the Shebaa Farms,” according to the book.
The Saudi ambassador points to Hezbollah’s “obvious alliance” with Syria, “the main passage for money and arms coming from its ally and first sponsor, Iran.”
He also says that Nasrallah clearly embraced the doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih: He was completely subservient to the rule in Tehran, and thus deviated from the doctrine of the rest of the Lebanese Shiites, and from Mr. Muhammad Hussein Fadlallah, one of the most prominent Shiite scholars.
Nasrallah also disagreed with his friend and foe - head of Amal Movement Nabih Berri, who had preceded him in the leadership of the Shiites.
According to the book, Amal and Hezbollah clashed in bloody military conflicts over political and sectarian interests, but they agreed on the alliance with Syria.
Khoja quoted in his book Nasrallah as saying about Berri: “I cannot do without him, but I cannot forget that during the Civil War he sent me a truck packed with the bodies of my men.”
The Saudi ambassador also talks about Rafik Hariri’s effort to revive Lebanon after the devastating war, pointing out that the dispute between the Sunni leader and Hezbollah began “at the behest of the Syrian leadership, which sought to support a parliamentary bloc led by (Hezbollah) that opposed Hariri’s Arab and international relations and obstructed reconstruction plans.”
Khoja stresses that he sought to establish good ties with all the Lebanese parties during his work as an ambassador, from 2004 until 2009.
“My relationship was warm with Nasrallah, and I felt at the beginning that he was a charismatic person with an attractive personality, who enjoyed a broad knowledge of the course of things, and a sense of humor. My meetings with him were frequent, and they continued for long periods,” he recounts.
“But after the assassination of Prime Minister Hariri, the July war and the events of May [2008] in particular, we discovered that the party was not an ally of Iran in Lebanon, but rather Iran itself, and perhaps the worst thing about Iran, because it was entrusted with controlling Lebanon and controlling its will and its people,” he underlines.
The former ambassador speaks of three assassination attempts targeting him in Lebanon, “which was the end of the direct relationship with Nasrallah.”
Khoja describes Berri as “an intelligent and skilled diplomat,” highlighting a theory that the Saudi-Syrian rapprochement was the only gateway to stability in the region.
He refers to the events that accompanied the renewal of Emile Lahoud’s presidential term with direct Syrian pressure, something that Rafik Hariri was categorically against until his last meeting with Bashar al-Assad.
About this meeting, Khoja says: “It did not last more than 15 minutes…” during which Assad informed Hariri “very clearly about his desire to extend Lahoud’s term.”
“If you refuse, I will burn Lebanon,” the Syrian president said, adding that this has prompted Rafik Hariri to declare his approval of the extension in the Lebanese parliament, but Walid Jumblatt stuck to his refusal.
The ambassador says that Lahoud sought to “oppress” Hariri after the latter left the government in 2004 (when Omar Karami took over).
“The atmosphere was disturbing, so we advised him not to stay in the country, but he did not imagine that Syria would kill him, nor that Hassan Nasrallah would participate in that,” Khoja recounts.
He continues: “We received information from multiple sources – from the US, France, Britain, and Saudi Arabia, regarding the existence of plans for the assassination of Rafik Hariri. But he did not listen to our advice. Instead, he said his famous quote: ‘the nation is not a hotel,’ and he remained within Parliament’s opposition.
“Our kings used to fully trust him. Prince Khalid bin Saud, the assistant foreign minister, visited us, and we went together to visit Hariri... We found him worried, sad, and frustrated.
"After we left, the prince asked me if I noticed that, and I said yes... A week later, on February 14, Valentine's Day, Rafik Hariri was assassinated at the entrance of Saint George, near the Phoenicia Hotel, by a massive car bomb, in which a ton of explosives was used…,” Khoja remembers.
The Saudi ambassador also talks about the repercussions of the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, and the efforts made by Saudi Arabia to reconstruct what was destroyed by the Israeli bombing.
He points to the Kingdom’s position on the behavior of Hezbollah that led to the outbreak of war (the kidnapping of soldiers on the borders), which raised the party’s displeasure.
He refers to the “difference” between Hafez al-Assad and his son Bashar, saying that the first stayed in the Arab camp, and benefited from his relationship with Iran, while the son “got involved with Iran, lost Syria’s Arab allies, and angered the West.”
As for his meetings with Michel Aoun, before the latter became president, Khoja recounts: “He was either tense or absent-minded during the meetings… as he thought that I was an obstacle to his presidency and he did not understand that I represent a semi-Arab and international consensus.”
On Saad Hariri, the Saudi ambassador says: “My best friend... he is pure and loyal.”
The Saudi Ministry of Culture and Information
On February 14, 2009, the late King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz appointed Khoja as Minister of Culture and Information, and he was concluding his mission at the embassy in Beirut.
In this chapter, he talks about his efforts to improve the performance of the Saudi media, assist the sector’s professionals and address challenges that social media represented.
On King Salman, Khoja says: “He is a firm and wise manager, who believes that the shortest path between two points is the straight line, and achievement is his most important administrative standard. He does not like dodgy politics, nor dishonest or weak characters.”
“He always surrounded me with care, advice, and guidance at all stages of my career,” he underlines.
*Khoja also notes that Prince Mohammad bin Salman is a “very practical man, who has the faculties of leadership, and has taken many of the qualities of his great father.”

Kelly: Ghosn's Second-in-Charge Now First in Firing Line
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 06/2020
Greg Kelly, a former close colleague of Carlos Ghosn, said he was "shocked" at the flight from Japan of the ex-Nissan boss and worries it could hamper his own battle against financial misconduct charges. The softly-spoken American, 63, gave a rare interview to AFP as he awaits trial in Tokyo, confiding his surprise at Ghosn's sudden escape to Lebanon and his fears that he will not receive a fair hearing. "I was completely surprised. I had no idea that would happen," Kelly said. "I was shocked." Like Ghosn, Kelly stands accused of conspiring to conceal from shareholders tens of millions of dollars in pay the former chief executive was promised after his retirement. Kelly faces up to 10 years in jail if convicted. "And now he's not here. So, it really makes it to me seem quite difficult to really have a trial now that's going to be fair," he said. "If the leading witness isn't there, how do you really try this case in a logical way?" Often presented as a "right-hand man" or close adviser to Ghosn, Kelly said the two men were not personally close. "I didn't even know he got married," he said of Ghosn's lavish wedding at the Palace of Versailles in 2016 that later attracted criticism."I met with Carlos Ghosn only twice a month. In terms of a personal relationship, that didn't occur. It was business issues," stressed Kelly, whose discreet style contrasts somewhat with his more brash former boss.
- 'Very, very painful' -
Kelly and Ghosn both arrived in Tokyo on the same fateful day in November 2018 and were arrested by Japanese authorities. They say Nissan lured them to the country on the pretext of an important board meeting. Kelly was released on bail on Christmas Day after more than a month isolated in a detention centre -- especially uncomfortable as he was due to return to the United States for treatment on his back. "Really, it was painful. Very, very painful," Kelly said, adding that he had tried to explain to wardens that he could not sit on the floor as required. "I'm not the type of person that's going to bang on the door and yell and scream or anything like that." Since his release, he has undergone surgery in Japan that seems to have worked, although he said he still suffers from numbness in his feet, arms and legs. To keep fit and relieve stress, he has taken to jogging a popular five-kilometre (three-mile) route around the Imperial Palace in Tokyo, near the modest apartment he shares with his wife Donna.
- 'Lonely existence' -
Like Ghosn, Kelly strenuously denies any wrongdoing.
"I didn't do anything criminally wrong in Japan," he stresses, adding that the departure of Ghosn -- who faces more charges than Kelly -- might open a door to a resolution within the firm. "For me, this could be resolved within Nissan. If it's an error about reporting something that was never agreed and never paid...," he said, tailing off and adding: "But you know, I'm caught in the system right now so..."He still does not know when his trial will begin, despite another pre-trial session on Friday. Kelly defers questions about the details of his planned defence to his lawyers. He spends most of his day going through mountains of electronic documents furnished by the Japanese prosecutors. The couple say they miss their children and grandchildren in the United States but also their own friends at Nissan, whom they are banned from contacting while the case is ongoing. It is, says Kelly, a "lonely existence."Photos of their loved ones adorn the walls of their Tokyo apartment but they have not set down roots there. "This is not called home. This is called the apartment. You never say you're 'going home'. You say you're 'going back to the apartment'," said Donna Kelly. She spends her days learning Japanese to sustain the student visa that allows her to stay with her husband. "You can't miss school and you have to get the grades," she said. Despite his predicament Kelly refuses to hold a grudge against Nissan, the company for which he worked "seven days a week" for nearly 30 years. The Ghosn saga has battered trust in the firm and its most recent results showed a more than 87-percent plunge in net profit for the nine months to December. "This thing that I'm caught up in, that doesn't make me want Nissan to do badly," Kelly said.
"I want Nissan to do well."

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 06-07/2020
Adviser to Iran's FM Zarif Dies of Coronavirus
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 March, 2020
An adviser to Iran's foreign minister who took part in the 1979 US embassy hostage crisis has died from coronavirus, the official IRNA news agency reported, as the death toll rose in the country. Hossein Sheikholeslam, "a veteran and revolutionary diplomat" died late Thursday, IRNA said. Six of those who died from coronavirus are politicians or government officials. Iran on Friday announced 17 more deaths from the virus, raising the total number of people killed to 124, as the overall number of cases soared. "We have confirmed 1,234 new cases, which is a record in the past few days," health ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour told a news conference, raising the total number of infections to 4,747. The new cases "are probably those who had been infected with the virus two weeks ago and have just came to us with symptoms," he added. Before his death, Sheikholeslam was advisor to Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. A former ambassador to Syria, he also served as deputy foreign minister from 1981 to 1997. Sheikholeslam was also one of the students involved in the 1979 Iran hostage crisis. That year, and less than nine months after the toppling of the American-backed shah, Iranian students stormed the US embassy in Tehran and took 52 Americans hostage. This prompted Washington to sever diplomatic ties with Iran in 1980. The hostages were freed in January 1981, after 444 days in captivity. The novel coronavirus has also claimed the lives of other high-profile Iranian officials, including Mohammad Mirmohammadi of the Expediency Council which advises supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Other deaths linked to the virus include Mohammad Ali Ramezani, an MP from Gilan, one of the worst-hit provinces in the country. Tehran MP Fatemeh Rahbar is currently in a coma after being infected, according to ISNA news agency. Iran has closed schools and universities, suspended major cultural and sporting events and reduced working hours across the country to halt the rapid spread of coronavirus, which has spread to all of its 31 provinces. Health Minister Saeed Namaki told a news conference on Thursday that all schools and universities will remain closed until the end of the Iranian calendar year on March 20, and that checkpoints will be used to limit travel between major cities. "People should not consider this as an opportunity to go traveling. They should stay home and take our warnings seriously," Saeed Namaki said at a televised press conference.

Iranian MP Fatema Rahbar in ‘critical condition’ due to coronavirus
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 6 March 2020
Iranian MP Fatemeh Rahbar is currently in “critical condition” in a hospital in Tehran due to coronavirus, state media reported on Thursday. Rahbar served as an MP from 2004 to 2016 and was recently elected again in Iran’s February 21 polls. Rahbar is “connected to an oxygen tank and doctors have expressed concern about her condition,” the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, while the semi-official ISNA news agency reported that she is in a coma.

Two of Iran’s Khamenei advisors, vice presidents infected with coronavirus
Al Arabiya English/Friday, 6 March 2020
Two Iranian vice presidents and two advisors to the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as well as several other ministers and parliament members were among those infected with coronavirus in Iran. Iran’s first vice president Eshaq Jahangiri tested positive for coronavirus and is undergoing treatment, the IranWire news site reported on Wednesday. Masoumeh Ebtekar, Iranian vice president for women and family affairs also tested positive for the virus on February 27. Mohammad Sadr, a member of Iran’s Expediency Council, was infected with coronavirus, the editor-in-chief of the state-run news website Entekhab, Mostafa Faghihi, tweeted on Thursday. Earlier this week Mohammad Mirmohammadi, another member of the Expediency Council, had died from coronavirus, the state media reported. The council advises Khamenei, as well as settles disputes between the supreme leader and parliament.
Several senior officials, ministers and parliament members have also contracted the virus in recent weeks. Hossein Sheikholeslam, Iran’s former ambassador to Syria and former advisor to current foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, died from coronavirus on Thursday. Ahmad Toyserkani, an adviser to the head of the judiciary Ebrahim Raisi died from coronavirus, the semi-official ISNA news agency reported on Tuesday. Twenty-three Iranian MPs have so far tested positive for coronavirus, deputy speaker of Parliament Abdolreza Mesri said on Tuesday. Iran on Thursday reported 15 new deaths from the novel coronavirus and 591 fresh cases in the past 24 hours, bringing the toll to 107 dead and 3,513 infected.- With agencies

Iranian authorities threaten use of ‘force’ to halt travel amid coronavirus
The Associated Press, Tehran/Friday, 6 March 2020
Iranian authorities warned on Friday that they may use “force” to limit travel between cities amid the coronavirus outbreak in the country. Health Ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour did not elaborate on the threat to use force, though he acknowledged the virus now was in all of Iran’s 31 provinces. The threat may be to stop people from using the closed schools and universities as an excuse to go to the Caspian Sea and other Iranian vacation spots. Semiofficial news agencies in Iran posted images of long lines of traffic of people trying to reach the Caspian coast from Tehran on Friday despite authorities earlier telling people to remain in their cities. Iran on Thursday announced it would put checkpoints in place to limit travel between major cities, hoping to stem the spread of the virus. Iran canceled Friday prayers across its major cities. Elsewhere in the region, Iraq canceled Friday prayers in Karbala, where a weekly sermon is delivered on behalf of the country’s top Shia cleric.More than 4,990 cases of the virus, which causes the illness COVID-19, have been confirmed across the Middle East. Iran and Italy have the world’s highest death tolls outside of China.

U.S. Blocks U.N. Statement Backing Syria Ceasefire
Agence France Presse
The United States blocked adoption of a U.N. Security Council statement Friday that supported a Syrian ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey, diplomats said following a closed-door meeting. "It's premature," the United States said, rejecting the joint statement which Russia's ambassador to the U.N., Vassily Nebenzia, had asked the other 14 member states to adopt, according to diplomats.

Assad Expresses 'Satisfaction' over Idlib Truce Deal
Agence France Presse/Friday, 6 March 2020
President Bashar al-Assad Friday said he was pleased with a ceasefire deal for northwest Syria brokered by his ally Russia and rebel backer Turkey, the presidency said. During a phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, "President Assad... expressed his satisfaction with what the Russian leadership had achieved during the meeting with the Turkish" president in Moscow on Thursday, it said in a statement.

Russia’s Putin tells Syria’s al-Assad ceasefire will stabilize Idlib
Reuters, Moscow/Friday, 6 March 2020
Russian President Vladimir Putin told Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in a phone call on Friday that agreements reached between Russia and Turkey at recent talks would stabilize the situation in Syria’s Idlib province, the Kremlin said. “Bashar al-Assad rated the outcome of the talks between the leaders of Russia and Turkey highly and expressed his gratitude to Russia’s president for supporting the fight against terrorist groups,” the Kremlin statement said. Turkey and Russia agreed a ceasefire deal on Thursday in Idlib, their two leaders said after talks in Moscow, aiming to contain a conflict which has displaced nearly a million people in three months

EU to Hold Donor Conference for Syria, Urges Aid Access
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 March, 2020
The European Union will host a Syria donor conference in Brussels on June 29-30 to raise funds for victims of the nine-year war and surrounding countries, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Friday. Borrell, the EU's top diplomat, said in Zagreb that governments involved in the conflict will be invited, referring to Turkey and Russia. The conference will be the fourth annual donors' event held by the EU and its partners, he said. EU countries gave a cautious welcome Friday to a Russian-Turkish ceasefire in Syria but urged warring parties to allow in more humanitarian aid. Foreign ministers from the 27 EU states held talks in Zagreb on the crisis in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib, where Ankara is battling Moscow-backed government forces. A ceasefire came into force at midnight aiming to halt intense fighting that has sparked a humanitarian crisis and raised fears of Turkish and Russian armies clashing. "For sure I am pleased for the ceasefire, the ceasefire is good news. At least it's goodwill -- let's see how it works," Borrell said. The ministers called "in the strongest possible terms" for the ceasefire to be implemented to protect civilians and "to enable the unhindered delivery of humanitarian assistance by the international community". The EU has announced 60 million euros ($68 million) in humanitarian assistance for northwest Syria, as part of a 170 million euro package for those in need across the war-torn country. But Borrell warned that logistics were a bigger challenge than financing -- the difficulties of trucking in supplies to feed and shelter a million people in the middle of winter.

Policeman Killed in Suicide Bombing outside US Embassy in Tunis
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 March, 2020
One policeman was killed and others were wounded on Friday when two militants on a motorbike blew themselves up outside the US embassy in Tunisia, authorities said, in the country's most serious attack since the summer. Embassy officials confirmed the attack in a tweet on its official Twitter feed, and urged people to avoid the area. The explosion took place near the embassy's main gate, where a Reuters journalist saw a scorched, damaged motorbike and a damaged police vehicle lying amid debris as police gathered around and a helicopter whirled overhead. The Interior Ministry said two militants were killed carrying out the attack and five police officers were injured, while a civilian suffered minor injuries. State news agency TAP reported that one policeman was killed. "We heard a very powerful explosion ... we saw the remains of the terrorist lying on the ground after he went on the motorbike towards the police," said Amira, a shopkeeper. Sirens could be heard on the major highway linking the Lac district, where the embassy is located, with Tunis and suburbs in the north. Roads around security installations were closed in some parts of the capital, and some international institutions were put on lockdown or evacuated.
Last summer, ISIS said it was behind three militant blasts in the capital, including one near the French embassy that killed a policeman and another that wounded five people during a security operation to detain a suspect. Diplomats who have worked with Tunisia on its security capacity say it has grown more effective in preventing and responding to militant attacks in recent years.

Ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib is being observed: Reports
Reuters, Moscow/Friday, 6 March 2020
The ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib that was agreed by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin is being observed and the situation on the ground is calm, Russia’s RIA news agency cited a military source as saying on Friday. Putin and Erdogan held lengthy talks in Moscow on Thursday and said they had agreed a ceasefire deal in the region to contain a conflict which has displaced nearly a million people in three months.

As Syria Ceasefire Begins, Turkish Lira Firms Slightly
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 March, 2020
The Turkish lira strengthened a bit against the dollar on Friday after a ceasefire deal agreed by Turkey and Russia for northwest Syria's Idlib region went into effect. The lira, which initially weakened in early trade, gained 0.15% to 6.0990 against the US currency by 0800 GMT, compared with a close on Thursday of 6.1080. The currency has had a volatile week, sliding to 6.2640 on Monday - its weakest since September 2018 - before rebounding to as far as 6.0345 after an emergency Federal Reserve rate cut. The ceasefire deal was reached in Moscow after talks to contain a conflict that has displaced nearly a million people in three months. Dealers said the implementation of the deal will be closely monitored. "We expect geopolitical tension to lessen somewhat. The ceasefire is important in terms of preventing risks in the field. But we will watch its impact," said a treasury desk trader at one bank.
Syria's Idlib region was quiet but tense on Friday, with residents and opposition forces describing a lull in air raids that have pounded the province, to which Turkey has sent thousands of troops in support of the rebels there. The yield on Turkey's benchmark 10-year bond fell to 11.32% on Friday from 11.42% on Thursday. It had fallen to single digits in the first weeks of the year from 21% last year before rising again over Syria-related tensions. The main BIST 100 share index, which rose 0.93% on Thursday, was down 1.03% on Friday. The banking index fell 1.79%. Asian shares and US stock futures tumbled on Friday as disruptions to business from the coronavirus worsened, stoking fears of a prolonged global economic slowdown. "The selling pressure in foreign markets is very strong despite the global interest rate cuts. We are seeing this reflected in the lira," the trader said, adding that US payrolls data later on Friday could affect the dollar.

Fifteen dead after clashes in Syria’s Idlib despite ceasefire: Report
Reuters, Amman/Friday, 6 March 2020
Fifteen people were killed on Friday in clashes between Syrian government forces and extremist insurgents in southern Idlib province on Friday, hours after a Russian-Turkish ceasefire came into effect, a war monitor said. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the clashes took place in the Jabal al-Zawiya region. Six Syrian soldiers and allied fighters were killed, as well as nine fighters from the insurgent Turkistan Islamic Party, it said.

Ceasefire will allow more EU aid for Syria's Idlib: Top diplomat
Reuters, Zagreb/Friday, 6 March 2020
The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, on Friday welcomed a ceasefire deal between Moscow and Ankara to halt the bombing of Syria’s Idlib region, saying the bloc could now step up help for suffering civilians.
“The ceasefire is good news. Let’s see how it works, but it is a precondition to increase humanitarian help for the people in Idlib,” Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, told reporters before chairing a meeting of EU foreign ministers in the Croatian capital. Asked about a possible no-fly zone for Idlib, he said: “We have to concentrate our efforts on the humanitarian side.”

Turkish military posts in Syria’s Idlib will stand after ceasefire
Reuters, Ankara/Friday, 6 March 2020
Turkey’s military observation posts in Syria’s Idlib will retain their current status with the Russian-Turkish ceasefire deal, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was cited as saying by his office on Friday, adding the agreement laid the groundwork for the normalization of the region.
Turkey and Russia announced the agreement on Thursday to contain an escalating conflict in Syria’s northwest. The deal did not address some key Turkish demands including withdrawal of Syrian government forces from its observation posts. Speaking on his return flight from Moscow, Erdogan also said the United States could have sent military support to Turkey for Idlib if there was no ceasefire on Thursday, but that no support had been sent yet. He also reiterated that Turkey would activate the Russian S-400 defense systems it purchased despite protests from Washington next month, adding he had also asked for US Patriot systems.

Top Iraq cleric Sistani's sermon cancelled over coronavirus, a first since 2003
AFP, Najaf, IraqFriday, 6 March 2020
Representatives of Iraq's top Shia cleric did not deliver his weekly sermon in Karbala on Friday, a first since the fall of Saddam Hussein, due to fears of spreading the novel coronavirus. Religious authorities had already closed the shrine of Imam Hussein, grandson of the Prophet Mohammed, where the sermon is usually delivered, to mitigate the risk of contagion. On Friday, representatives who usually read Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani's address, broadcast live on state television, did not appear. The 89-year-old Sistani is based in the Shia holy city of Najaf, south of Karbala, and never appears in public. An official at the site in the holy city of Karbala told AFP that “the cancellation of Friday prayers at the Imam Hussein shrine is a first since 2003,” the year an American-led invasion toppled veteran dictator Saddam Hussein. Sources close to Sistani's office confirmed the unprecedented nature of the decision. Iraq has reported three coronavirus deaths and 38 infections. Authorities are particularly worried about coronavirus spreading via Shia holy sites, which attract millions of pilgrims including many from neighboring Iran which has seen the world's second-deadliest outbreak. But on Friday numerous pilgrims flocked to the area near the Karbala mausoleum, and a road linking two shrines in the city was still open to pilgrims, AFP journalists said. Provincial authorities have barred non-residents from entering Karbala province from Friday. Sistani had dedicated part of his last two sermons to the health situation in the country of 40 million.
The virus has fueled panic among Iraqis who say the war-ravaged country's health system cannot handle the epidemic. In Najaf, the mausoleum of Imam Ali, son-in-law of the Prophet Mohammad, was open to the public on Friday after Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr personally pushed for it to be re-opened. Hundreds of his supporters gathered for prayers in the nearby town of Kufa -- Sadr's birthplace -- on Friday, AFP journalists reported. Sadr did not attend, but sent a representative to deliver his sermon. In Samarra, another holy Shia site north of Baghdad, religious authorities cancelled a second pilgrimage in the space of a week.

Arab Voters Key to Blocking Netanyahu-led Hardline Majority
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 March, 2020
A surge in Arab voter turnout was key to depriving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist allies of a parliamentary majority in this week’s Israeli election.
Undercutting Netanyahu’s ambitions was celebrated as sweet payback in the nearly 2 million-strong minority that the hardline leader had relentlessly tried to tarnish as disloyal to the state, reported The Associated Press.
An Arab-led alliance of parties is sending more lawmakers than ever to the new parliament, giving them unprecedented leverage to deliver results for their constituents and potentially transform Israel’s electoral politics for years to come.
Looking to galvanize his nationalist base, Netanyahu lambasted Arab lawmakers during the campaign as terrorist sympathizers who advocated for Palestinian interests and were a danger to the country. But the harsh rhetoric, coupled with concern over President Donald Trump’s Middle East plan and other legislation deemed discriminatory, seems to have backfired by energizing Arab voters.
“He’s a little racist and talked trash about Arabs, Arabs, Arabs. He talked dirty, and we showed him what Arabs can do,” Mahmoud Hazkiya, a 31-year-old salesman in the central Israeli town of Tira, said with a smile. “Arabs are interested now, and we are not getting what we deserve.”
Breaking out of years of political apathy, nearly 65% of Israel’s Arab citizens voted in Monday’s election — up from 59% in the September vote and 49% last April. It marked the highest Arab turnout since 1999.
With mergers among the Jewish-led leftist parties leaving their Arab candidates out of reasonable slots for parliament, Arabs rallied around the Joint List, with 88% casting their ballots for the umbrella group.
Together with a projected 20,000 Jewish votes, the list surged to an all-time high of 15 seats, emerging as the third largest party in parliament, trailing only Netanyahu’s Likud and Benny Gantz’s centrist Blue and White. More significantly, it secured a 62-58 majority for the anti-Netanyahu forces in parliament and blocked Netanyahu, who had initially declared a “great victory” after Monday's vote, from establishing the hawkish government he wanted.
“The Joint List is here. The Arab public is here. We forced everyone — because of our power, because of our public that granted us power — to treat us as an important and decisive factor,” lawmaker Ahmad Tibi told Israel’s Army Radio Thursday. He said the two additional seats picked up by the Joint List from September's election prevented Netanyahu from getting a 61-seat majority.
Tibi featured prominently in Netanyahu’s campaign as a symbol of the supposed illegitimate partners that Gantz would need for a coalition. Likud’s main campaign slogan was: “Without Tibi, Gantz has no government.” Tibi gleefully noted that it was now Netanyahu who had no government without Tibi.
Even so, he refrained from endorsing Gantz for prime minister after the former military chief ruled out a partnership with the Joint List. If Gantz and the Joint List can't resolve their differences, Israel could be looking at the prospect of a fourth consecutive election later this year.
Israel's Arabs, who make up about 20 percent of the country’s 9 million citizens, have largely been marginalized politically since the founding of the state in 1948.
The Israeli establishment, leery of including those it perceived as identifying with the country’s adversaries, kept Arab-led parties out of government. Arab leaders also insisted they had no interest in joining a government for fear of legitimizing Israel’s military occupation of Palestinian areas or being perceived as condoning military operations against their Palestinian brethren.
But a younger generation more comfortable with a dual Israeli-Arab identity and demanding solutions to everyday domestic issues has been far more eager to have a voice.
Polls show an overwhelming majority of Arab citizens want their leaders to focus more on reducing crime, improving infrastructure and addressing a housing crunch and discrimination rather than focusing exclusively on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, said The AP.
“Yes, there is a connection to the Palestinians. But at the end of the day we live in a country where you need to take care of yourself and then you can take care of others,” said 33-year-old Zidan Hazkiya, the salesman’s cousin. “We need a good future for our children: employment, education and many other things to move forward in life.”
In Tira, a town of 25,000 people known for their warm relations with nearby Jewish communities, the 72.5% turnout was even higher than the national average. More than 96% of the votes went to the Joint List.
Part of the motivation derived from deep-seated anger over a law passed by Netanyahu’s government in 2018 that declared Israel to be the nation-state of the Jewish people and which Arabs believe codifies discrimination. Another was the suggestion in Trump’s recent Middle East plan that densely populated Arab communities in Israel be added to a future Palestinian state.
But mostly it seems to reflect the Arab minority’s increasing desire to take a more active role in shaping the country.
“The more seats we get, the more power we will have,” said Fadila Maha, a 48-year-old mother of five. “God willing, if there are elections again they will get not 15, but 20."
Arik Rudnitzky, an expert on Arab society at the Israel Democracy Institute think tank, said the unified message by the Joint List's different factions played a key part in convincing Arabs their votes would matter.
“There was optimism in the air. They felt that their representatives aren’t busy with their own rivalries and were concentrated on one goal,” he explained, according to The AP. “The public wanted to prove that ‘we are citizens of the state and you cannot just treat us as temporary or tentative citizens.’”
They still have a long way to go. On Wednesday, Netanyahu all but said their votes don’t count when it comes to the tricky arithmetic of resolving Israel’s third inconclusive election in less than a year. Scrawling his analysis of the election results on a board, he jotted down 58 seats for what he called the “Zionist right” and 47 for the “Zionist left.”
The Joint List, he said, “is obviously not part of this equation.”
But even that slight didn’t damper enthusiasm on the Arab street after their historic achievement. “We voted for change,” said Amir Abu-Het, a 39-year-old restaurant manager. “Netanyahu is more of the same, but now we have more power to move forward.”

Bethlehem Under Lockdown over Coronavirus
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 March, 2020
The city of Bethlehem was on lockdown on Friday, after the first Palestinian cases of the deadly coronavirus were discovered there.
The Palestinian government announced a month-long state of emergency late Thursday after the seven cases were identified. Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh made a special broadcast to announce the lockdown, saying the measures were essential to contain the disease.
All but essential travel between Palestinian governorates was now prohibited, while all schools and educational facilities would close, he said. Public parks and tourist sites would close while large sporting events, conferences and other major gatherings were cancelled, Shtayyeh added. The Israeli defense ministry said it had imposed emergency measures on Bethlehem, with all people "forbidden from entering or leaving the city". It added that the lockdown had been imposed "in coordination with the Palestinian Authority". The Church of the Nativity, built on the site that Christians believe was the birthplace of Jesus, was closed on Thursday and is among places expected to be shuttered for a month. All tourist buses to and from Bethlehem were banned until further notice, Israeli police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said. The streets in Bethlehem and Ramallah, where the Palestinian government is based, were near empty on Friday morning, with most shops closed, AFP journalists said. The Palestinian health ministry said the cases had first been detected at a hotel in the Bethlehem area. The emergency measures came after the first Palestinian cases were confirmed Thursday afternoon. All seven of those infected were being treated in quarantine, the Palestinian health ministry said. The head of the local health directorate, Imad Shahadeh, told AFP that a group of Greek tourists had visited the hotel in late February, with two later diagnosed with the virus. A number of suspected cases have since been identified among hotel workers, he said. Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, said Shtayyeh's announcement covered only the West Bank. The measures were a particular blow to Bethlehem, where businesses depend largely on visitors to the church.

Taliban could ‘possibly’ seize power after US leaves: US President Trump
AFP, Washington/Friday, 6 March 2020
US President Donald Trump on Friday said the Taliban could “possibly” overrun the Afghan government after the United States withdraws from the country, leaving the US-backed authorities to fend for themselves.
“Countries have to take care of themselves,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “You can only hold someone’s hand for so long.”Asked if the Taliban could eventually seize power, Trump said it’s “not supposed to happen that way but it possibly will.”“We can’t be there for the next 20 years. We’ve been there for 20 years and we’ve been protecting the country but we can’t be there for the next -- eventually they’re going to have to protect themselves,” he said. Trump said the Afghan government’s ability to defend itself from the guerrillas after US forces pull out was unknown. “I don’t know. I can’t answer that question,” he said. “We’ll have to see what happens.”

US seeks UN backing for Taliban peace deal
The Associated Press, United Nations/Friday, 6 March 2020
The United States is seeking UN Security Council backing for the ambitious peace deal it signed with the Taliban aimed at ending America’s longest war and bringing US troops home from Afghanistan. A US draft resolution, obtained Thursday evening by The Associated Press, would welcome the February 28 announcement of the agreement. It would also encourage “the sustained support” of the UN and international partners for efforts toward peace, including the convening of “intra-Afghan negotiations in order to achieve a political settlement and a permanent and comprehensive cease-fire.”
The draft resolution would also affirm “that any political settlement must protect the rights of all Afghans, including women, youth and minorities.” This was an addition from the original draft sought by council members who want to ensure that women’s rights are protected, and the Taliban doesn’t return to its previous draconian measures, including barring women from education and work. According to the US-Taliban deal, peace negotiations between the warring Afghan sides are supposed to begin March 10. However, the Afghan government has already rejected releasing Taliban prisoners ahead of launching the talks, a precondition that the militants say was part of the US agreement. The Security Council scheduled closed consultations on the draft resolution for Friday at Russia’s request. The draft resolution would also welcome the intention of the Afghan government and the Taliban to pursue additional confidence-building measures to create conditions conducive for talks. And it would call for additional reductions in violence and international support for Afghanistan prior to a cease-fire agreement. It would express the council’s readiness to review sanctions on individuals and groups once intra-Afghan negotiations start “in order to support the peace process,” stressing that the Taliban’s actions in reducing violence and advancing talks will affect the review. The draft would acknowledge the Afghan people’s demand for lasting peace and an end to war and recognize “that a sustainable peace can be achieved only through an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned peace process that leads to an inclusive negotiated political settlement.”

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 06-07/2020
Question: "Did Jesus mean we should literally pluck out our eyes and cut off our hands in Matthew 5:29-30 and 18:8-9?"
GotQuestions.org
Answer: In the Sermon on the Mount, Jesus says something that must certainly have seized His hearers’ attention: “If your right eye causes you to stumble, gouge it out and throw it away. It is better for you to lose one part of your body than for your whole body to be thrown into hell. And if your right hand causes you to stumble, cut it off and throw it away. It is better for you to lose one part of your body than for your whole body to go into hell” (Matthew 5:29–30). Jesus repeats the admonition in Matthew 18:8–9, except there He adds the need to dispense with a foot as well as a hand and an eye.
The graphic word pictures of Matthew 5 and 18 still grab attention today, and they raise the question of how literally we should take Jesus’ commands in these passages. Does Jesus actually mean to say that we should pluck out our eyes or sever a hand if we are prone to sin? It may be of comfort to know that Jesus’ instructions in these particular verses are not meant to be taken literally. We need not mutilate our bodies as a punishment for our sin. Rather, Jesus means that we should be prepared to make exceptional sacrifices if we want to follow Him (see Matthew 16:24).
Jesus had just warned His audience against using their eyes for lustful purposes (Matthew 5:28), so His prescribed remedy for lust—to pluck out an eye—makes sense, in a radical sort of way. But it is the radical nature of His statement that makes it so memorable.
When Jesus advises us to pluck out a sinful eye or cut off an unruly hand, He is employing a figure of speech known as hyperbole. Hyperbole is an obvious exaggeration or an intentional overstatement. Examples of hyperbole in modern speech would include statements like “This bag of groceries weighs a ton,” “I’ve been waiting forever,” and “Everyone knows that.” The apostle Paul uses hyperbolic language in Galatians 4:15. Hyperbole, like other figures of speech, is not meant to be taken literally.
Jesus’ purpose in saying, hyperbolically, that sinners should pluck out their eyes or cut off their hands is to magnify in His hearers’ minds the heinous nature of sin. Sin is any action or thought that is contrary to the character of God. The result of sin is death, from which Jesus wants to preserve us (see Hebrews 2:9). Jesus warns of hell because He doesn’t want people to go there (Matthew 5:29–30).
Sin takes people to hell (see Revelation 21:8), and that makes sin something to avoid at all costs. Jesus says that, whatever is causing you to sin, take drastic measures to get that thing out of your life. “It is better for you to enter life maimed or crippled than to have two hands or two feet and be thrown into eternal fire. . . . It is better for you to enter life with one eye than to have two eyes and be thrown into the fire of hell” (Matthew 18:8–9). Nothing is worth missing heaven for. Nothing is worth going to hell for. Nothing.
God takes sin seriously—seriously enough to sacrifice His only begotten Son to destroy it. We must take sin seriously as well. A lack of repentance is a crime punishable by eternal death. It is better to deny our flesh—to pluck out an eye or cut off a hand, as it were—than to risk sinning against God. God demands holiness (1 Peter 1:15), but we naturally tend to pamper ourselves and excuse our sin. That is why we need Jesus’ shocking, radical hyperbole to wake us from our spiritual complacency.

What Is Left for Nusra Front to Say?
Akram Bunni/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 06/2020
There are still remaining reactions and questions among Syrians on the prolonged meeting that was held between the International Crisis Group (ICG) and Abu Mohammad al-Julani, commander-in-chief of Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Al-Nusra Front). The ICG had recently published the proceedings of the meeting and it seemed as if Julani was critically reviewing some of his organization’s practices while clarifying others. This was taking place while the Syrian regime and its allies were achieving substantial advances in Idlib and Aleppo countryside.
There are some who believe that the purpose behind Julani’s media appearance, in terms of time and content, is an address to the exterior to exhibit some moderation and good intention. They think that perhaps it is an attempt to lessen the reasons behind Nusra being classified as a terrorist organization by the international community and Western governments that have no interest in a war in Idlib or overcoming the regime, to reduce the sanctions against it and weaken the anti-terrorism banner that the regime gets legitimacy to escalate its military operations. This could be to meet Erdogan’s wish, who is attempting to use Julani’s flexibility in order to justify his direct military intervention in Syria and to justify his running away from dismantling Nusra as long as it remains useful for him to improve the position of the Ankara government in Syria and at the regional level. Perhaps he is using it as a message get along with and reassure international aid organizations that Julani fought and eliminated in the areas under his control or push them to freeze their activities or reduce them to a minimum, expressing his wish to reconcile with them and facilitate the work of any international organization that wishes to return to Idlib, including stopping Tahrir al-Sham from taking over any aid provided for those in need.
In all cases, it is not so far fetched considering al-Julani’s pragmatism and maneuvering. He has changed his skin for the same reason before when he publicized that he refused to annex his organization to al-Qaeda in 2013 in order for it to remain local with local agendas and so that Syria does not become an arena for foreign fights against regional and international parties against al-Qaeda. He also did so a second time when he suddenly announced that he is cutting ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 and forming a new group named Fateh al-Sham Front, in an attempt to use the new name to get rid of the terrorism stigma, and a hird time when he fought ISIS in order to show that he is different and that he rejects ISIS’s approach, then annexing armed Islamic groups that are considered moderate and changing his group’s name in 2017 to Tahrir al-Sham so that it receives understanding and acceptance.
On the other hand, there are some who find that Julani’s media appearance is directed towards the Syrian interior, as a confession of the mistakes that he had committed under the pressure of war and that he wanted to make up for them. In this regard, he criticized some of his military ventures that ended by force the presence of other armed Islamic groups that disagreed with Nusra and then explicitly called for dialogue with the opposition on the basis that his group cannot rule Idlib on its own. This made it seem that these stances hit two birds with one stone: First, joining the forces of his organization after it became clear that his supporters were complaining of his stances on peace and his unexplained defeatist positions, especially that most of his militants were Syrian and the majority of them joined his ranks in order to provide material and military support that allowed continued fight against the regime. Second, in order to appeal to the opposition factions that still rely on Islamic groups and their military role in change. Third, in order to restore the status of the group that has become subject of popular ridicule after having made claims about its unique capability in fighting the regime and then incurring incredible losses, making it subject to accusations of treason after unjustified military withdrawals from some areas that the regime controls, and worse, stopping other armed opposition factions from reaching the battlefronts and confiscating their weapons.
Julani said what he thought would be in his favor, but what about his killing of elite activists, journalists, and opposition civilians and ending their existence and role in areas under his control? What about the violent ways he responded with to the protests against him in Morek, Saraqib, and Maarat al-Numan before the regime took over?
What could he possibly say about the repressive and terrorist role of his group against people in areas under his control or the communal graves that were discovered and Nusra confessed to committing on the grounds that they were pro-regime people, atheists, or had confessed crimes of bombing civilians or opposition headquarters? What can be said about their targeting of Alawite, Druze, Christian, and Shiite civil committees and killing them on a sectarian basis? Most prominently, when Nusra confessed to killing tens of Shiite and Druze villagers in Idlib countryside in order to terrorize minorities and push them to escape and become displaced? Finally, what can he say about his aggression against the Kurds and turning his Front into a cheap instrument in the hands of Erdogan to use as he pleases?
If some opposed in principle using religion for politics and rejects all groups that have ambitions of religious rule and a Khilafah, and if others demanded that one distinguishes between different religious-political groups who may have some national interests that are in the interest of Syrians and want to participate in the building of a democratic state of freedom, justice, and equality, then the majority today agree on warning against the dangers of allowing Julani’s media appearance to just pass and to expose him and not to co-exist with such Islamist groups that have and still stand against the rights of Syrians to freedom and dignity and live off a nurturing environment characterized by sectarian strife in the region and prioritizes violence over tangible politics.
Finally, after bitter years of Nusra’s saboteur role and its supporters in mutilating the Syrian revolution and undermining their resources, assets, and demands, and enabling their enemies, nobody will disagree that there is nothing that Julani or his group have to say to the Syrian people!

Iran: The Train Hits Something Hard
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 06/2020
One of the arguments advanced by Democrat critics of Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy towards Iran is that, far from persuading Tehran to change its behavior, it has helped marginalize the so-called “moderate faction” and propelled the “radicals” into an even more aggressive posture.
At first glance, the criticism may appear justified. In last month’s parliamentary election, the “moderate” faction, always the Cinderella of the system, was reduced to the status of a mouse in the Khomeinist kitchen.
Having already exposed President Hassan Rouhani and his Cabinet as nothing but puppets, last Tuesday, “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei decided to reassert his position as puppet-master by annulling the decision of the Majlis on the new national budget. After weeks of debate, the outgoing Majlis had rejected the budget with a clear majority. The “Supreme Guide”, however, needed the budget to release funds for the various military and security organizations on which the regime is built not to mention stipends for Bashar a-Assad, Hassan Nasrallah, the Houthis, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Iraqi militias and kindred groups across the globe.
In a brief “state edict”, a kind of fatwa, he declared the national budget approved, thus making it clear that the President, the Council of Ministers and the Islamic Majlis all depended on his whim.
In other words, Trump’s policy has forced the Islamic Republic to assume its true identity as a typical “Third World” regime based on the military-security apparatus with a pseudo-theocratic façade.
That, I think, is an important and positive development. The only question is whether the end of the moderate-hardline game will lead to change of behavior in Tehran.
The answer could be a tentative yes. In fact, the end of the moderate-hardline pas-de-deux may itself be regarded as part of the behavior change in question. There are signs that, always anxious not to lose face, the regime has started to modify its behavior in a number of areas.
For the first time in decades, Tehran has downgraded annual “End of America” and “End of Israel” international conferences that attracted professional anti-Americans and Holocaust- deniers from all over the world. The usual Hate-America crowd, from Louis Farrakhan to “Che” Guevara’s daughter and son-in-law and passing by British Corbynites waited in vain for invitations to travel to the Islamic Republic for a rite of verbal abuse against the “Great Satan”. This year, there was no Holocaust-denying cartoon exhibitions while Oliver Stone and kindred characters waited in vain for invitation to the “Fajr “(Dawn) film festival in Tehran where America-bashing has been a favorite sport.
More importantly, badly hit by cash-flow problems, the regime has been forced to cut down payments to regional clients in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan and Gaza. This has led to a reduction in Lebanese Hezbollah’s military presence in Syria while the Houthis in Yemen have
also gone into slow motion mode. Almost all offices in 30 Iranian towns and cities recruiting “volunteers” to fight in Syria, ostensibly to protect Shiite shrines, have been closed or downgraded into a symbolic presence.
The Islamic Republic has also stopped raising new fighting units of Afghan and Pakistan mercenaries. Boastful claims that Tehran would help Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro reassert authority with vast amounts of cash have not materialized. At the same time Tehran has taken no new hostages and even released three, including an American.
In his meeting in Zurich with Brian Hook, Trump’s point-man on Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister Muhammad Javad Zarif relayed the message that Tehran was prepared for further releases.
Concerned that they might have to put up with Trump for a second term, Khamenei’s associates have back-pedaled on boasts that Tehran could wait for a Democrat, preferably Joe Biden, in the White House in 2021.
A more dramatic sign of behavior change by Tehran came in the wake of General Qassem Soleimani’s killing in an American drone attack. Khamenei described Soleimani as “the apple of my eye” and many expected the general to succeed Rouhani as President of the Islamic Republic next year. Not a single one of the remaining 12 top Islamic generals come close to filling Soleimani’s boots. And, yet, Tehran has been forced to ignore calls for escalating the situation through serious revenge attacks.
More importantly, perhaps, the idea of appeasing Trump is publicly evoked in Tehran, albeit in the usual negative rhetorical style.
The daily Kayhan, believed to reflect Khamenei’s views, claimed last Tuesday that, in a letter transmitted trough the Swiss ambassador, Tehran had “indicated agreement” to return to a de facto recognition of “The Zionist regime”, disarming of the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah and end of support for Hamas. Kayhan does not say who signed the letter, when, and to whom the Swiss ambassador, representing American interests in Iran, transmitted it.
Iran was one of the first two Muslim-majority nations to recognize Israel on its foundation as a state. Turkey went for full, de jure, recognition, while Iran chose the lower grade de facto option.
Turkey’s move took the form of a declaration by the Foreign Ministry in Ankara while Iran passed an act of parliament, giving its decision greater legal solemnity. Since that act has never been repealed by any legal instance in the Islamic Republic, Tehran could return to recognition of Israel with a simple declaration.
No longer enjoying access to massive amounts of easy money, from oil exports, the Khomeinist leadership is growing daily more desperate to loosen the lasso thrown by the Trump administration. Always anxious not to lose face, it has modified aspects of its behavior, confirming the view that the Khomeinist train, which according to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had no reverse gear, would stop only if it hits something hard.
As whining and sniveling replaces braggadocio in Tehran it seems that the wayward train has already hit something hard. To be sure, two successive popular uprisings have also helped shake the regime that seems unable to reconnect with the broader Iranian society.

How Fast Can a Virus Destroy a Supply Chain?
Tyler Cowen/Bloomberg/March 06/2020
The global supply chain, already under pressure from President Donald Trump’s trade war, now faces further strain from the coronavirus. And while cross-national supply chains are more robust than they may appear, if they fail they will do so suddenly and without much warning.
Consider the supply chain of the Apple iPhone, which stretches across dozens of companies and several continents. Such complex cross-national supply chains generate relatively high profits, giving them a kind of immunity to small disruptions. If there is an unexpected tax, tariff or exchange movement, the supply chain can generally swallow the costs and move on. Profits will be lower within the supply chain, but production will continue, as it is too lucrative to simply shut everything down.
Do not be deceived, however: Supply chains are not indestructible. If the new costs or risks are high enough, the entire structure will be dismantled. By their nature, supply chains do not fall apart slowly, because each part of the chain relies upon other parts to add its value. It does not help much to have the circuit components of the iPhone lined up, for instance, if you cannot also produce the glass screens. In this way, these supply chains are less robust under extreme conditions.
Global supply chains have yet to come apart mostly because trade and prosperity generally have been rising. But now, for the first time since World War II, the global economy faces the possibility of a true decoupling of many trade connections.
It is not sufficiently well understood how rapid that process could be. A complex international supply chain is fragile precisely for the same reasons it is valuable — namely, it is hard to construct and maintain because it involves so many interdependencies.
The nature of the cross-national supply chain makes it especially vulnerable to shocks coming from the coronavirus. These supply chains do not adapt so well to complete cutoffs in materials or labor, as may happen if Chinese coronavirus casualties continue and workplaces find it hard to operate effectively.
Imagine that closed Chinese factories cannot produce the components of many American medicines. It is not a question of the supply chain simply losing some profits; rather, some critical pieces of the production process are missing. The medicines won’t work without these inputs. The US medical establishment might try to source those components elsewhere, but it isn’t easy for other suppliers to produce enough of them at sufficient scale and quality.
US medical producers might try to bid more for the Chinese medicine components, but if the workers are prohibited from even showing up at the factory, no feasible market clearing price can make this arrangement work. Production just won’t be possible. Fashionable practices of near-zero inventories can make these shortages appear all the more rapidly. About 80% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients in US medicines rely on Chinese or Indian components, so this does represent a very real public health risk for the US, even if the coronavirus itself does not.
India, of course, also may prove vulnerable to the coronavirus, because it has high population density and relatively weak public health institutions. China is the world’s No. 2 economy, but it is not the only vulnerable part of the global supply chain in this regard.
In contrast, the older, less global supply chains were less vulnerable to these kinds of risks. If the production of medical components were at risk within the borders of the US, American officials could take regulatory or private-company actions to help maintain supply. US officials don’t have the same leverage over conditions in China or India.
So far the best bet is that current international supply chains will hold, for the most part, and deliver the goods. But the chance that they will not is rising sharply, as both the trade war and the coronavirus strengthen the hand of those who advocate for more dismantling of international trade networks. And if that dismantling does occur, it is likely to snap into place suddenly — with neither market prices nor advance warning offering much protection. The more people start to believe that long, complex cross-national supply chains are risky, the more fragile they will turn out to be.

Coronavirus Sure Doesn’t Seem ‘Very Well Under Control’
Mark Gongloff/Bloomberg/March, 06/2020
US stocks have tumbled by more than 3% on coronavirus fears. Stocks rebound overnight because that’s what they do. President Donald Trump called the virus “very well under control in our country.”
He added, “We’re very close to a vaccine.” The White House said, no, whoops, Trump meant a vaccine for Ebola, not coronavirus. People realized we already have an Ebola vaccine.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said coronavirus is coming to America and “might be bad.” US stocks tumbled another 3%.
The end result is an inescapable sense that this thing is pretty far from “very well under control.” One huge problem for reassuring both markets and the general public is that Trump has spent his term stripping America’s pandemic-response apparatus for parts. He keeps trying to gouge the CDC’s budget, has defenestrated whole teams of experts, hasn’t bothered to name a coronavirus “czar” and may be seeking too little money for a response. Add to this his generally chaotic style of government, his special relationship with honesty and his lack of any other apparent motivation than self-help, and you have a recipe for what could be an epic botching of a pandemic response, writes Jonathan Bernstein.
Not that China’s Xi Jinping, at the epicenter of the outbreak, has been much better, writes Shuli Ren. He and local officials have issued a long series of confusing pronouncements and lurching policy flip-flops that have drained confidence in their handling of the situation.
Trump seems mainly motivated by a desire to make the stock market — his BFF until about 24 hours ago — forget this whole virus thing ever happened. But the disease is a one-two gut punch to the global economy. First, it shuts down travel, shopping and other activities as people are quarantined. Then, it disrupts supply chains in China and elsewhere, halting production. These webs of commerce are more fragile than you probably realize, writes Tyler Cowen, and can collapse with stunning speed.
Containing the disease, officially known as Covid-19, will probably take more aggressive measures than we’ve seen so far, writes Mark Buchanan. That’s good for human health, not so great for economic activity.
This presents a conundrum for the stock market, writes John Authers. An economic slowdown will push the lever for more cheap central-bank money, which markets crave. (And the Fed probably isn’t far from suggesting a rate cut, notes Bill Dudley.) But cheap money isn’t an effective treatment for the damage the virus will do.
And we don’t know just how far or deep that damage will go, writes Mohamed El-Erian. We don’t even know very much about the disease itself yet. Then there are the other dominoes waiting to fall, including shaky credits in China and elsewhere. For now, the confusion just keeps multiplying.
Sanders, Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg (founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP) — would be the oldest presidents ever from Day One, notes Justin Fox. Trump would break the record in 2024. Here’s the thing, though: It probably doesn’t matter as much as we think. Despite some issues — cardiac for Bloomberg and Sanders, dietary for Trump — all of these candidates should live a while longer. For a company making giant machines that fly hundreds of miles an hour, Boeing Co. sure moves slowly. First, there was its lethargic response to the 737 Max problem. Now, it’s cleaning up its act a bit with a couple of board moves swapping tenure for expertise. That’s helpful, but still not the full overhaul Boeing needs, writes Brooke Sutherland. The same can be said of Boeing’s extra conditions for CEO David Calhoun to earn a special $7 million bonus. They’re fine, but it’s still not clear why he needs the bonus to basically do his job.

Europe Must Not Fall Victim to Erdoğan's Blackmail
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/March 06/2020
Turkey would apparently like to see more progress in the talks to grant it admission as a full member of the European Union.... Erdoğan would most certainly like the West overlook his massive democratic deficit, and to help Turkey secure even more dominance over the Greek islands off its coast, as well as its claims on the gas fields beneath the eastern Mediterranean.
Erdoğan needed to find a non-Russian adversary to attack, to distract Turkish anger away from him and toward a different chosen target. What better target than the EU, with which most Turks have a love-hate relationship? Opening Turkey's border gates and flooding Europe with migrants would be sure to please the average Turk....
Europe, unfortunately, to protect its liberty and sovereignty, needs to fight back. It must refuse to accept Erdoğan's hostages.... If the first groups in this mini-exodus from Turkey face a serious blockade rather than warm and welcoming locals, potential migrants would be discouraged from taking such a perilous trip. What Greece alone could achieve, without help from the EU, would be limited....
On February 27, the Turkish government finally pressed the button to execute President Erdoğan's threat: Millions of (mostly Syrian) migrants on Turkish soil were now free to travel to Europe; Turkish border gates were now open. Pictured: Migrants at the Turkey-Greece border try to pull down the Greek border fence and enter Greece, near Edirne, Turkey, on March 4, 2020. (Photo by Bulent Kilic/AFP via Getty Images)
Turkey's Islamist strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has threatened Europe several times with "sending millions of refugees your way." Turkey would apparently like to see more progress in the talks to grant it admission as a full member of the European Union. At the moment, these membership negotiations have stalled. He may also wish for Western support -- from the EU, the United States and all of NATO -- for his ideal architecture to install Turkey in northwest Syria.
As Turkish servicemen were recently killed in Syria, with direct Russian military involvement, it is probably safe to assume that the support Erdoğan is seeking, both directly and indirectly, is "support for a NATO ally against Russian aggression". In addition, Erdoğan would also most certainly like the West overlook his massive democratic deficit, and to help Turkey secure even more dominance over the Greek islands off its coast, as well as its claims on the gas fields beneath the eastern Mediterranean.
On February 27, the Turkish government finally pressed the button to execute the threat: Millions of (mostly Syrian) migrants on Turkish soil were now free to travel to Europe; Turkish border gates were now open.
Why did Erdoğan decide now to resort to the "nuclear option" in his country's deeply problematic relations with the European Union? It seems, bizarrely, that Erdoğan decided to punish the EU because he was angry with... Russia.
When, on February 27, Syrian forces, backed by Russian air support, killed 34 Turkish soldiers in the Idlib area in northwestern Syria, the event seems to have sent shock waves through a Turkish public, who were already split: between a fiercely nationalistic rhetoric that supports the "heroic mission" that took Turkish troops into Syria, and a rational questioning of the wisdom of confronting Syria and Russia -- and Iran -- in what looks increasingly like a Syrian quagmire. There also may well have been concerns that public unrest over coffins wrapped in the crescent and star flag could erode Erdoğan's declining popularity even further.
For Turkey, open confrontation with Russia is not an option. In November 2015, the last time Turkey tried punishing Russia, which had placed sanctions on Turkish businesses after Turkey downed a Russian jet, the move brought Erdoğan to his knees: in a rare show of repentance, Erdoğan apologized to Russian President Vladimir Putin for having brought down the Russian Su-24 fighter jet in Syrian airspace.
A marriage of convenience followed: Cold War-era foes became "strategic partners" -- a title crowned by a deal that Turkey would buy Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air defense systems at the expense of Turkey's defense procurement bond with its NATO allies. Since the Su-24 crisis, Russia, for Erdoğan, has remained "untouchable."
Cornered by an angry public after the deaths of the 34 soldiers, Erdoğan needed to find a non-Russian adversary to attack, to distract Turkish anger away from him and toward a different chosen target. What better target than the EU, with which most Turks have a love-hate relationship? Opening Turkey's border gates and flooding Europe with migrants would be sure to please the average Turk, who hates to be living with 3.6 million or so Syrian refugees and -- to benefit the chauvinistic Turkish psyche -- loves the idea of teaching the Europeans a lesson. The masses always seem to love it when their leaders resort to hostile and patronizing rhetoric against the Europeans.
Echoing Erdoğan's "angry-in-Syria-but-hitting-Europe" psychology, Turkish Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hamdi Aksoy warned Western nations, including the EU, that if the situation in Idlib deteriorates -- in other words, if you do not help us in Idlib you will have even more refugees on your doorstep -- the wave of refugees and migrants could continue. "Some asylum-seekers and migrants in our country, worried about developments, have begun to move toward our western borders," Askoy said. "If the situation worsens, this risk will continue to increase".
Ömer Çelik, a spokesman for Erdogan's ruling party, concurred. "Turkey is no longer able to hold the refugees," he said.
Tens of thousands of these migrants (not only Syrians) were given free bus rides from Istanbul to Turkey's land borders with Bulgaria and Greece, about 150 miles west of the city.
Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu chimed in on March 1, that, in a span of three days, 100,000 refugees had already crossed the borders into Europe, but his declaration seems to have been more propaganda talk than reality. The whole effort looked more like a media stunt than a genuine, well-planned campaign to send hundreds of thousands of migrants into Europe. (In 2015, when the migrant crisis was at its peak, an average 10,000 people a day landed in Greece.)
Shortly after Erdoğan announced his move to open Turkey's floodgates, Greece shut down its land and maritime borders with Turkey. At the border crossing, hundreds of migrants, in a situation that is truly tragic, faced barbed wire fences and smoke grenades. Some migrants, stuck in the no-man's land between Turkey and Greece, tried, to escape the smoke, to return to the Turkish side, only to be turned back by the authorities there.
Greece, meanwhile, said that its security forces had prevented 7,000 migrants from entering Greek territory by land at the border crossing. "The Greek government will do whatever it takes to safeguard its territory and protect the European borders," government spokesman Stelios Petsas announced. Athens then mobilized additional troops at the border crossing. By the weekend of February 28, Greece was operating 52 Navy ships to guard its islands close to Turkey. On March 1, furious migrants clashed with Greek riot police. Officers fired tear gas at the migrants; some, as they sought to force their way into Greece, threw rocks at the police and wielded metal bars against them.
Landings on Greece's islands appeared to be quieter. Greek police said that at least 500 people had arrived by sea on the islands of Lesbos, Chios and Samos, near the Turkish coast, within a few hours. On Lesbos, locals prevented a boat full of migrants from landing.
Meanwhile Frontex, the EU's border protection agency, said it was on high alert and had deployed extra support to Greece. "We ... have raised the alert level for all borders with Turkey to high," a Frontex spokeswoman said. "We have received a request from Greece for additional support. We have already taken steps to redeploy to Greece technical equipment and additional officers".
Europe, unfortunately, to protect its liberty and sovereignty, needs to fight back. It must refuse to accept Erdoğan's hostages. Securing maritime borders in the Aegean Sea is often a difficult and expensive task, but not militarily impossible. If the first groups in this mini-exodus from Turkey face a serious blockade rather than warm and welcoming locals, potential migrants would be discouraged from taking such a perilous trip.
What Greece alone could achieve, without help from the EU, would be limited: Greece has 1% of the EU's population but is processing 11% of all asylum applications. Heavyweights from the EU should act quickly to help Greece and Bulgaria seal their borders with Turkey -- by financing border security programs, sending additional patrolling personnel and equipment, and by transferring technology and gear for a safer border between Turkey and Europe.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
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Don't Expect a Turkey-Russia War in Syria
Jonathan Spyer/The Jerusalem Post/March 06/2020
Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan shake following their talks in Moscow on March 5. Russia's desire to woo Turkey from the West will likely prevent an all-out Turkey-Syria war.
Clashes between Turkish and Syrian regime forces in north west Syria are ongoing. For the first time in the Syrian civil war, the forces of two governments are engaged in prolonged clashes on the ground. The killing of at least 30 Turkish soldiers in what was almost certainly a Russian air attack in Idlib Province on February 27 was a dramatic escalation and has left the Turkish public angry and shaken.
The latest fighting – around the strategic town of Saraqib – has been intense and bloody. 75 opposition fighters and 40 regime fighters were killed in 24 hours of brutal combat around Saraqib on March 2-3.
But is an all out Turkey-Syria war now inevitable? Despite the dramatic recent events, it is not.
To understand why, it is important to grasp the interests and intentions of the various sides engaged in the fight.
The Assad regime's "Idlib Dawn 2" offensive triggered the current crisis.
The motivations of the Assad regime are easiest to grasp. The commencement of the regime's 'Idlib Dawn 2' offensive on December 19 triggered the current crisis. The offensive was entirely predictable. Having reduced and reconquered the three other 'de-escalation' zones it established with the rebels (in Deraa-Quneitra-Sweideh, Hama-Homs-Aleppo and Eastern Ghouta), the regime sees Idlib as the last remaining morsel in its devouring of the rebellion raised against it in 2011.
Assad's regime is profoundly weak on the ground, in both its military and its administrative aspects. Recent events in Deraa Province indicate that it cannot fully control all the areas on which it has already placed its flag. This has not, however, lessened its appetite for re-conquest.
The reason for the regime's rapid progress on the ground this time, when compared with previous attempts, appears to be the greater concentration of Iran-linked fighters among the regime ground forces. Lebanese Hizballah, Afghan Fatemiyun and Pakistani Zeinabiyun combatants are operating on the ground in Idlib now, under IRGC supervision.
The rapid advance of the offensive throughout December and January precipitated the determined Turkish response. Ankara was faced with the prospect of the wholesale collapse of the rebel enclave in Idlib. President Erdogan poured in Turkish troops and equipment, determined to prevent this outcome.
Why was the Turkish president prepared to enter the Syrian quagmire in this decisive way? It has been clear, after all, for four years now that the rebellion is on its way to defeat. Idlib is where its 'bitter-enders' have gathered. What can be gained from preserving this enclave, in which among others 20,000 fighters of the local iteration of al-Qaeda are present?
There are a number of issues motivating the Turkish president. At the most basic level, he fears the prospect of another wave of Syrian refugees entering Turkey. The country has already received around 3.6 million Syrians in the course of the civil war. This is far higher than any other country. Unemployment is growing in Turkey and the economy is fragile and faltering. Resentment against the Syrian newcomers is high. This threatens to have a political cost for Erdogan's Justice and Development (AKP) Party if the issue is not addressed. A new wave of refugees would compound the problem. To prevent this, and to have a chance of partly reversing the situation, Erdogan needs the Idlib rebel enclave to survive.
Erdogan has sought to set himself up as the natural leader of Sunni Islamist causes in the region.
But there is more than the refugee issue at stake here. Erdogan supported the Sunni Arab rebellion in Syria earlier and harder than any other leader. His backing of it forms a part of the broader, erratic and floundering foreign policy in which he has sought to set himself up as the natural leader of Sunni Arab causes and of political Islam in the Arabic-speaking world. It is of a piece with his staunch backing of the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt, his allowing a Hamas network to operate on Turkish soil, from where it plans attacks in Jerusalem and the West Bank, his deploying of client militiamen to back the Islamist government in Libya, his frequent vilification of Israel, and his dispatching of troops to secure Qatar, and to train Sunni militiamen in Iraq.
To accept the complete crushing of the Syrian rebellion at this juncture would constitute a humiliating blow to the Turkish leader. It would severely tarnish his strong-man image, and perhaps stretch the credulity of his adoring base at home beyond breaking point. Hence the bold deployment of troops in recent days, and their engagement against regime forces. Hence the decision to remove restrictions on migrants making their way from Turkey to Greece and Bulgaria – in an effort to force the EU to take notice of the Idlib crisis. And hence the frantic efforts to secure US backing for the Turkish military effort – resulting in the rather meager outcome of a US commitment to supply the Turks with 'ammunition.'
So the motivations of the clashing sides are apparent. But while these goals are directly opposed to one another, this does not mean that a conventional war between Turkey and Syria is inevitably imminent.
That is because of the presence of Russia. To understand the dynamic, take a close look at events around the town of Saraqib in recent days. The town is strategically located at the intersection of two vital highways, the M5 between Aleppo and Damascus, and the M4 running from Aleppo to Latakia. It changed hands several times in the fighting of recent days.
Then Russia on March 2 deployed its own military police in the town. A further Turkish attempt at reconquest would have meant a direct confrontation with Russian personnel. Unsurprisingly, no such attempt has taken place.
Moscow has a treat-based alliance with the Assad regime. Assad owes his survival to Putin. But Russia also has a strategic objective of drawing Turkey away from the west. This effort has been proceeding well over the last half decade. The Turkstream pipeline, the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, the S-400 anti aircraft system sale are among its fruits.
As a revanchist power, Turkey's natural strategic connection is to Russia.
At root, Turkey is a revanchist power, seeking to grow at the expense of the retreating US-led order in the Middle East. From this point of view, in spite of local differences, its natural strategic connection is to Russia. Moscow also wants to upturn that order. Turkey is a major prize. If winning it means Assad has to wait a while before planting his flag along the border, Putin is likely to make him wait.
Now that Turkey has been allowed to strike back and slow the regime's advance, Putin is likely to be looking to cement a new ceasefire, allowing for Ankara to claim some kind of achievement. There is little or no chance of Turkey's demand that the regime army fall back to the 2018 Sochi Agreement lines being realized. But new lines guaranteeing, for a while, a new and smaller rebel enclave will be what Putin will seek to impose.
It will be a tricky arrangement to achieve and to sell to both sides. It may well not last long. But it is what Russia's strategic interests dictate. And Russia remains the decider in Syria west of the Euphrates.
So an arrangement along these lines, and not an all out Erdogan-Assad war, remains the most likely outcome for the next phase.
*Jonathan Spyer is director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis and is a research fellow at the Middle East Forum and at the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Strategy.

Joe Biden: Comeback kid or default candidate?
Marco Vicenzino/Al Arabiya/March 06/2020
Despite a poor start in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries, former Vice President Joe Biden has defied most pundits and resurrected his campaign with a string of impressive victories on Super Tuesday, when 14 states and roughly a third of delegates choose their preferred candidate.
His success begs the question: Is Joe Biden a political comeback kid, or merely the Democratic Party’s default candidate?
Biden’s resurgence on Super Tuesday was fueled by a variety of factors. He consolidated the centrist vote partly due to fear of Senator Bernie Sanders’ socialism, with other candidates such as Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar withdrawing from the race to rally around Biden just before Tuesday. Above all though, his success stems from the general realization by the Democratic Party establishment and mainstream centrists that although Biden does not inspire, he is the most viable and least worrisome Democratic contender against President Donald Trump. According to conventional wisdom, but subject to debate, in the presidential election Biden could most effectively unite the currently divided Democratic Party and win over independent centrists opposed to Trump.
Should Biden eventually secure the Democratic nomination, it will largely be as a default candidate and lowest common political denominator who won by process of elimination.
All over for Bloomberg, Warren on the ropes
Biden’s success on Tuesday came at the expense of other centrist candidates, narrowing the field to a two-horse race against Sanders.
Billionaire businessman Mayor Mike Bloomberg’s official entry into the primary race on Super Tuesday ended before it had even begun. Despite spending over $500 million in four months, miserable debate performances led to political suicide. After winning only American Samoa, Bloomberg’s business pragmatism prevailed. He abandoned the race and shifted support to Joe Biden. During his brief run, Bloomberg created a formidable, well-resourced political machine which will now benefit the Biden campaign.
Bloomberg’s campaign expenditure was a drop in the ocean when compared to his net worth of $55 billion. However, fellow businessman candidate Tom Steyer, a former hedge-funder, spent roughly $250 million of his $1.6 billion wealth on his campaign and has little to show for it apart from a third place in the South Carolina primary but not one single delegate.
Although money is essential to any campaign, it is ultimately the actual candidate that needs to convince and inspire voters
Senator Elizabeth Warren also performed poorly on Tuesday. By failing to win her own state of Massachusetts or any primary, Warren’s campaign has reached the end of the road. Although far from guaranteed, the conventional wisdom is that her grassroots progressive base will shift to the Sanders camp.
Despite pulling out just before Super Tuesday to endorse Biden, both Klobuchar and Buttigieg have achieved national standing through competent debate performances, opening the door to future political opportunities.
Sanders not giving up
Despite Biden’s impressive Super Tuesday performance, the race is far from over.
It is still premature to write off Sanders, particularly after his victory in California. Like Trump, Sanders inspires and appeals to a core base of diehard loyalists. Despite the outcome of the primary process, they will have to be reckoned with at the Democratic Convention in July, particularly when devising the party platform. Failure to ensure an inclusive approach risks loss of their support and absence on election day in November.
As a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, Sanders is more of an independent socialist than a member of the Democratic Party. Despite his current status as a leading Democratic Party presidential candidate, he remains the longest-serving independent in US congressional history.
Much of Sanders’ appeal stems from his quest for ideological purity. He largely sticks to his political agenda composed of basic tenets and direct speaking points. For his followers, Sanders’ ideological consistency and commitment is what distinguishes him from most other politicians who operate on political convenience and opportunism. However, whether Sanders’ agenda can be realized within the confines of political reality remains subject to fierce debate – helping Biden consolidate support as he presents himself as the candidate to beat Trump.
Biden needs new image to beat Trump
After Super Tuesday, Biden’s path to the Democratic Party nomination has become clearer – but he still faces challenges on the road to the presidency. Despite not taking California, Biden’s sweep of the South puts him in pole position for next week’s upcoming primaries. Overall, the Democratic Party establishment has reason to celebrate and breathe a temporary sigh of relief. At least for now, Biden is back as the frontrunner, although the risk of him continuing to make public gaffes remains. But even despite Biden’s gaffe prone antics, for most Democrats he remains far more bearable than the current white house occupant.
Until now, Biden’s road to victory has been largely premised on capitalizing upon fear of Senator Bernie Sanders’ socialism during the primaries in order to capture the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination. Biden then plans to target independent voters during the general election, presenting himself as a safe alternative to Trump.
Winning a party nomination based on fear of another candidate may work. However, running a campaign in a presidential election simply as a safe alternative to another candidate is a far more risky strategy. Ultimately, the Biden campaign will have to develop a more compelling narrative about who Joe Biden really is, beyond the nice-guy, safe-pair-of-hands image.
Should Biden win the Democratic Party nomination, he will be engaging in a battle of attrition with Trump, a formidable and seasoned political warrior who takes no prisoners. Whether Biden has the stamina, persistence, and perseverance to engage in trench warfare with Trump still remains a very open question.
*Marco Vicenzino is a geopolitical expert and strategic business advisors to senior executives operating globally. He is a regular speaker at international conferences and provides analysis for leading global media outlets. He is a graduate of Oxford University and Georgetown University Law Cente.