LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 25/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Do all things without murmuring and arguing,so that you may be blameless and innocent, children of God without blemish
Letter to the Philippians 02/12-18:”Therefore, my beloved, just as you have always obeyed me, not only in my presence, but much more now in my absence, work out your own salvation with fear and trembling; for it is God who is at work in you, enabling you both to will and to work for his good pleasure. Do all things without murmuring and arguing, so that you may be blameless and innocent, children of God without blemish in the midst of a crooked and perverse generation, in which you shine like stars in the world. It is by your holding fast to the word of life that I can boast on the day of Christ that I did not run in vain or labour in vain .But even if I am being poured out as a libation over the sacrifice and the offering of your faith, I am glad and rejoice with all of you and in the same way you also must be glad and rejoice with me.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on June 24-25/2019
Maronites Need Politicians From Bachir's Calibre
Geagea: Bassil Must 'Calm Down and Get Off Our Back'
Mustaqbal-PSP War of Words Contained after Berri Mediation
IMF Delegation Meets Khalil ahead of Critical Report
Army Refers 12 Detainees to Judiciary over Tripoli Attack
40 Syrians Arrested in Batroun District
Adwan to Kushner: Homelands Can't be Bought or Sold
UN Special Coordinator and UNRWA Director in Lebanon visit Mieh Mieh Palestine Refugee Camp

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 24-25/2019
Trump says other countries should do more to protect oil tankers
US ambassador to Saudi Arabia condemns ‘cowardly attack’ on Abha airport
Saudi King Salman meets with Pompeo, discusses Gulf maritime security
Coalition: Houthis deliberately targeting civilians, public facilities
Iranians Say Their 'Bones Breaking' Under US Sanctions
Another US Warship Arrives in Middle East
UK Warns of Accidental US-Iran War as Tehran Puts Conditions to Possible Concessions
Jubeir: Iran Will ‘Pay the Price’ if Persists with Aggression
U.S., UK, UAE, KSA Urge 'Diplomatic Solutions' on Iran
Trump Says Other Nations Must Protect Own Shipping, Tells Iran 'No Nukes, No Terror'
What's Wrong with Palestinian Surrender, Israel's U.N. Envoy Asks
Palestinians Reject U.S.-Bahrain Peace Plan as Israel Advises 'Surrender'
U.S.-Led Bahrain Meeting: A Chance for Israel-Gulf Rapprochement?
Australian Islamic State Orphans Rescued from Syria Camp
Egypt Attending Bahrain Conference to ‘Evaluate’ It
Three Months On, Landless ISIS Still a Threat in Syria
Iraqi Cabinet Still Incomplete after Key Ministers Approved
Another US Warship Arrives in Middle East
UN Rights Chief Urges Sudan to Halt Repression, Give Monitors Access
LNA Thwarts New Attack on Tripoli Airport

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 24-25/2019
Maronites Need Politicians From Bachir's Calibre/Elias Bejjani/June 23/2019
The General of Economic Sanctions/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/June 24/2019
Trump and US Allies Can Still Make Iran Blink/James Stavridis/Bloomberg View/June 24/2019
 Analysis/Iran’s Attack on U.S. Drone Is Just a Preview of What’s to Come in Mideast/Amos Harel/Haaretz/June 24/2019
The US Should Designate Muslim Brotherhood a Terrorist Organization/Uzay Bulut//Gatestone Institute/June 24/2019
Istanbul: 'Everything Is Coming Up Roses'/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/June 24/2019
Palestinians and the Bahrain Conference: Condemning Arabs While Asking for Arab Money/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/June 24/2019
Iran would be mistaken to think US threat is over/Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/June 24/2019
Gulf tensions, trade wars loom large over key meetings/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/June 24/2019
Trump, Netanyahu and the Iran flipflop/Nahum Barnea/Ynetnews/June 25/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on June 24-25/2019
Maronites Need Politicians From Bachir's Calibre
Elias Bejjani/June 23/2019
Lebanon President's Son in-law, Mr. Gobran Bassil is a disastrous politician, there is no doubt in this sad reality. Meanwhile both Sami Gymayel and Samir Geagea are not better in any way in any domain what so ever, but definitely, much much worse. We the Maronites need Politicians from Bachir's garment and Calibre.

Geagea: Bassil Must 'Calm Down and Get Off Our Back'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 24/2019
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has blasted Free Patriotic Movement chief and Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil, accusing him of seeking to monopolize administrative appointments. “Unfortunately, there are some acts by Minister Bassil which we do not accept, be them statements, remarks or actions, such as his attempt to usurp all appointments,” Geagea told al-Joumhouria newspaper. “We are not trying to get half of the appointments and give him the other half, we are only asking him to abide by the mechanism,” the LF leader added. Asked whether the LF and the Progressive Socialist Party will quit government if the upcoming administrative and judicial appointments do not satisfy them, Geagea strongly rejected such a hypothesis. “At this stage, we should not talk about this issue. We must rather think how to more and more support the pillars of the authority and the state,” the LF leader said. “To us, the appointments are an issue of principles. It is not about getting 10, 3 or 7 seats,” he stressed. Asked how ties with the FPM can be mended, Geagea said: “Nothing at all requires the presence of tension or the persistence of this tension. Minister Bassil is required to 'calm down and get off our back,' this is what we are only asking for.”

Mustaqbal-PSP War of Words Contained after Berri Mediation
Naharnet/June 24/2019
Mediation efforts have managed to contain the fierce war of words that erupted Sunday between al-Mustaqbal Movement and the Progressive Socialist Party and the two parties have agreed that their relation needs a “profound evaluation.”Media reports said Minister Wael Abu Faour of the PSP and ex-minister Ghattas Khoury of Mustaqbal agreed on a halt to the exchange of tirades following a mediation by Speaker Nabih Berri. The Speaker's mediation followed a visit to Ain el-Tineh by MP Marwan Hamadeh of the PSP, the reports said. PSP leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat had tweeted Sunday urging “all comrades and supporters” not to “fall into the trap of public exchanges and responses with al-Mustaqbal Movement.”Mustaqbal sources meanwhile told An-Nahar newspaper in remarks published Monday that “if Jumblat is seeking to return Hariri to his alignment with his former March 14 allies -- which entails ending his alliance with President Michel Aoun -- he has chosen the wrong way.”“He is refusing to acknowledge that he has lost the bet, because PM Hariri has made an irreversible agreement with the President, and he has not renounced the key principles, contrary to what some are trying to suggest,” the sources added.

IMF Delegation Meets Khalil ahead of Critical Report
Naharnet/June 24/2019
Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil on Monday met with a delegation from the International Monetary Fund led by Chris Jarvis. The National News Agency said the talks tackled “the economic and financial situations in Lebanon, the latest developments regarding the state budget and the reforms it included.”Jarvis hoped parliament will approve the 2019 budget as soon as possible, saying that would help unlock the funds that Lebanon needs from the CEDRE conference. The IMF is expected to issue a key report on Lebanon's monetary and financial situation before mid-July.
The report will have an impact on Lebanon's financial stability and ranking.

Army Refers 12 Detainees to Judiciary over Tripoli Attack
Naharnet/June 24/2019
The army on Monday announced the end of investigations into the latest deadly militant attack in Tripoli.“The Lebanese Army's Intelligence Directorate has wrapped up its investigations into the operation that was carried out by the terrorist Abdul Rahman Mabsout on June 3, 2019 in several neighborhoods of the city of Tripoli,” the military said in a statement. The attack “resulted in the martyrdom of four servicemen and the wounding of a number of civilians, in addition to material damage to several buildings and military and civilian vehicles,” the army added. “In light of the investigations, the aforementioned directorate has referred to the competent judicial authorities 12 detainees who had ties to the slain terrorist and the operation that he carried out,” the military said. Mabsout is a former member of the Islamic State group who fought with the extremist movement in Syria. He had been detained when he returned to Lebanon in 2016 and was released a year later. Media reports have identified eight of those detained by the army in the wake of the incident as Mabsout’s father and brother, a person who had ties to him and five young men who belong to “Sheikh Kanaan Naji’s group.”

40 Syrians Arrested in Batroun District
Naharnet/June 24/2019
Forty Syrian nationals were arrested on Monday in the northern district of Batroun, the state-run National News Agency said. “A patrol from the Batroun security department of the Lebanese Army's Intelligence Directorate raided Syrian gatherings in the city of Batroun, the town of Kubba and the Mseilha Fort area,” NNA said. “It arrested forty Syrians after it turned out that they had entered Lebanon illegally,” the agency added. “They were referred to the relevant authorities for further legal measures against them,” it said.

Adwan to Kushner: Homelands Can't be Bought or Sold
Naharnet/June 24/2019
Lebanese Forces deputy leader MP George Adwan on Monday rejected the latest proposals by Jared Kushner, the son-in-law and adviser of U.S. President Donald Trump. “In response to Kushner's proposal, homelands can't be bought or sold,” Adwan tweeted. “Lebanon will not bargain its constants and principles for all the money in the world,” he stressed. “The Lebanese have paid precious sacrifices to preserve them and they will not change their stance,” Adwan underscored. On Sunday, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said “mistaken are those who think that waving billions of dollars might tempt Lebanon” to naturalize Palestinian refugees. Kushner said Saturday that the U.S. Middle East peace plan to be presented next week in Bahrain aims to raise more than $50 billion for the Palestinians and create one million jobs for them within a decade. The 10-year plan calls for projects worth $27.5 billion in the West Bank and Gaza, and $9.1 billion, $7.4 billion and $6.3 billion for Palestinians in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, respectively. Projects envisioned include those in the health care, education, power, water, high-tech, tourism, and agriculture sectors. It calls for the creation of a "master fund" to administer the finances and implementation of the projects that is says are akin to the Marshall Plan that rebuilt Europe after World War II.

UN Special Coordinator and UNRWA Director in Lebanon visit Mieh Mieh Palestine Refugee Camp
NNA/Mon 24 Jun 2019
NNA - The United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis, and the Director of UNRWA Affairs in Lebanon, Claudio Cordone, on Monday visited the Palestine refugee camp of Mieh Mieh as well as Mieh Mieh municipality in southern Lebanon.
Kubis was briefed by UNRWA representatives on the situation in Mieh Mieh camp, the living conditions of Palestine refugees and UNRWA's work. Kubis and Cordone met with representatives of Palestinian Factions and Popular Committees of Mieh Mieh camp and discussed with them the political, social and economic situation. The two UN officials toured the camp and the areas affected by the clashes in 2018 and met with families to hear firsthand about their living conditions. Kubis and Cordone then met with the Mayor of Mieh Mieh municipality Rafaat Saed Abusaba accompanied by mukhtars and municipality representatives, later they met with representatives of the Lebanese Armed Forces who gave a briefing about the security situation. "I welcome the efforts made by the Palestinian factions and the Lebanese authorities to organize and ensure the safety and security of the Mieh Mieh camp, its residents and the neighboring community." Kubis said. "Also important are the living conditions of the Palestine refugees, their protection needs, and their human rights while reconfirming their right of return. We urge the international community to provide increased assistance to UNRWA and the authorities of Lebanon to take positive steps to ensure their rights and dignity in accordance with respective international conventions and norms so that their living, social, and humanitarian needs are met" he added.  During his meeting with Mieh Mieh Mayor, Kubis expressed his and the UN appreciation for hosting for decades Palestinians in Mieh Mieh, but also Ein el-Helweh camps.  "This generosity is highly appreciated but Lebanese authorities and international community including the UN ought to understand and react better also to the needs and concerns of this and other host communities and increase their support." Kubis said.
He welcomed the cooperation between Lebanese authorities and Mieh Mieh representatives and underlined the importance of continuous dialogue between the Lebanese and the Palestinians. Cordone thanked Kubis for his visit and for supporting UNRWA and reiterated the Agency's commitment to provide assistance and protection to Palestine refugees. He said, "UNRWA stands in Mieh Mieh and in other camps to protect the rights and dignity of Palestine refugees until a just and lasting solution to their plight is achieved. The support of the whole UN family is key in achieving our goals."

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 24-25/2019
Trump says other countries should do more to protect oil tankers
Agencies/Monday, 24 June 2019
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that other countries, including China and Japan, should protect their own oil tankers in the Middle East. “So why are we protecting the shipping lanes for other countries (many years) for zero compensation,” Trump said on Twitter. “All of these countries should be protecting their own ships on what has always been a dangerous journey.”As for Tehran, he said, “The US request for Iran is very simple - No Nuclear Weapons and No Further Sponsoring of Terror!”

US ambassador to Saudi Arabia condemns ‘cowardly attack’ on Abha airport
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 24 June 2019
The US ambassador to Saudi Arabia John Abizaid strongly condemned on Monday what he called the "cowardly attack" that targeted Abha International Airport.
Ambassador John #Abizaid: The Embassy has seen reports of the cowardly attack on @AHBairport. We condemn it in the strongest possible terms and send our deepest condolences to the families and friends of those injured or killed in this outrageous attack on civilians. pic.twitter.com/E7G0vQy59E
— U.S. Mission to KSA (@USAinKSA) June 24, 2019
On the official Twitter page of the US Mission to Saudi Arabia, Abizaid sent condolences to “the families and friends of those injured or killed in this outrageous attack on civilians.”The Arab Coalition said on Sunday that the Iranian-backed Houthi militia launched an attack targeting Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport. The coalition spokesman Col. Turki al-Maliki said one Syrian national was killed and seven others were injured. Earlier, Saudi Arabia, UAE, UK and the US released a joint statement expressing their concern over escalating tensions in the region and the dangers posed by Iran’s destabilizing activities in Yemen and the broader region. In a joint statement, the quartet condemned Iran’s recent actions in the region, including attacks on the oil tankers off Fujairah in the UAE on May 12 and in the Gulf of Oman on June 13.

Saudi King Salman meets with Pompeo, discusses Gulf maritime security
Reuters, Riyadh/Monday, 24 June 2019
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a tweet on Monday he had discussed heightened tensions in the region with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman during a meeting in Jeddah. Pompeo said they also discussed the need to promote maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, following attacks on oil tankers in Gulf waters which Washington and Riyadh blame on Iran. Tehran denies the charges. The US Secretary of State told reporters before departing that Washington wanted talks with Tehran even as it planned to impose “significant” new economic sanctions. “We’ll be talking with (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) about how to make sure that we are all strategically aligned, and how we can build out a global coalition, a coalition...that understands this challenge,” Pompeo said.

Coalition: Houthis deliberately targeting civilians, public facilities
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 24 June 2019
The Arab coalition said on Monday that the Houthis in Yemen are deliberately targeting civilians and public facilities as a result of suffering major losses. “The Houthi militias have received various specialized weapons which were smuggled from Iran,” the official spokesperson of the Arab Coalition supporting the legitimate government in Yemen said. “The Houthis are trying to provoke the Coalition but we will be persistent in applying international law,” Colonel Turki al-Maliki. His press conference on Monday came after the Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport the previous night. The coalition said the terrorist attack on Abha airport in the death of Syrian national and the injury of 21 civilians from different nationalities. He said 13 of the injured were from Saudi Arabia while four Indians, two Egyptians, and two Bangladeshis made up the rest. Among those injured included three women and three children who were admitted to the hospital for treatment. Three people have so far been discharged from the hospital while 18 were still receiving treatment.

Iranians Say Their 'Bones Breaking' Under US Sanctions
London- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 24 June, 2019
As the US piles sanction after sanction on Iran, it's the average person who feels it the most. From a subway performer's battered leather hat devoid of tips, to a bride-to-be's empty purse, the lack of cash from the economic pressure facing Iran's 80 million people can be seen everywhere. Many blame President Donald Trump and his maximalist policy on Iran, which has seen him pull out of Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and levy punishing US sanctions on the country.
In recent weeks, Iran has threatened to break out of the deal unless European powers mitigate what it calls Trump's "economic warfare." Iran also appeared ready to push back against the buildup of US forces in the region, after shooting down an American drone it says violated its airspace last week. In response, US officials have vowed to pile on more sanctions. But alongside Trump, many Iranians blame their own government, which has careened from one economic disaster to another since its Islamic Revolution 40 years ago. "The economic war is a reality and people are under extreme pressure," said Shiva Keshavarz, a 22-year-old accountant soon to be married. She said government leaders "keep telling us to be strong and endure the pressures, but we can already hear the sound of our bones breaking." Walking by any money exchange shop is a dramatic reminder of the hardships most people are facing. At the time of the nuclear deal, Iran's currency traded at 32,000 rials to $1. Today, the numbers listed in exchange shop windows have skyrocketed - it costs over 130,000 rials for one US dollar. Inflation is over 37%, according to government statistics. More than 3 million people, or 12% of working-age citizens, are unemployed. That rate doubles for educated youth. Depreciation and inflation make everything more expensive - from fruits and vegetables to tires and oil, all the way to the big-ticket items, like mobile phones. A simple cell phone is about two months' salary for the average government worker, while a single iPhone costs a 10 months' salary. "When importing mobile phones into the country is blocked, dealers have to smuggle them in with black market dollar rates and sell them for expensive prices," said Pouria Hassani, a mobile phone salesman in Tehran. "You can't expect us to buy expensive and sell cheap to customers. We don't want to make a loss either." Hossein Rostami, a 33-year-old motorbike taxi driver and deliveryman, said the price of brake pads alone had jumped fivefold. "The cause of our problems is the officials' incompetence," he told The Associated Press as fellow motorbike drivers called out for passengers in Tehran. "Our country is full of wealth and riches."
The riches part is true - Iran is home to the world's fourth-largest proven reserve of crude oil and holds the world's second-largest proven reserve of natural gas, after Russia. But under Trump's maximum-pressure campaign, the US has cut off Iran's ability to sell crude on the global market, and threatened to sanction any nation that purchases it. Oil covers a third of the $80 billion a year the government spends in Iran, meaning that a fall in oil revenues cuts into its social welfare programs, as well as its military expenditures. The rest of the country's budget comes from taxes and non-oil exports, among them oil-based petrochemical products that provide up to 50% of Iran's $45 billion in non-oil export. In Tehran's Laleh park, retired school teacher Zahra Ghasemi criticized the government for blaming "every problem" on US sanctions.
She says she has trouble paying for her basic livelihood. The price of a bottle of milk has doubled, along with that of vegetables and fruit. "We are dying under these pressures and a lack of solutions from officials," Ghasemi said. Years of popular frustration with failed economic policies triggered protests in late 2017, which early the following year spiraled into anti-government demonstrations across dozens of cities and towns.
The current problems take root in Iran's faltering efforts to privatize its state-planned economy after the devastating war with Iraq in the 1980s, which saw 1 million people killed. But Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said earlier this month that the crunch on oil exports hitting harder today than during the 1980s war, when Saddam Hussein's forces targeted Iran's oil trade. "Our situation is worse than during the war," Zanganeh said. "We did not have such an export problem when Saddam was targeting our industrial units. Now, we cannot export oil labeled Iran."
Still, many Iranians pin the economic crisis on corruption as much as anything else. "Our problem is the embezzlers and thieves in the government," said Nasrollah Pazouki, who has sold clothes in Tehran's Grand Bazaar since before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. "When people come to power, instead of working sincerely and seriously for the people, we hear and read after a few months in newspapers that they have stolen billions and fled."He added: "Whose money is that? It's the people's money." Sanctions do cause some of the problems, said Jafar Mousavi, who runs a dry-goods store in Tehran. But many of the woes are self-inflicted from rampant graft, he said. "The economic war is not from outside of our borders but within the country," Mousavi said. "If there was integrity among our government, producers, and people, we could have overcome the pressures."Yet people come and go each day to work on Tehran's crowded metro, seemingly earning less each day for the same work. In one train car, Abbas Feayouji and his son Rahmat play mournful-sounding traditional love songs known as "Sultan-e Ghalbha," or "King of Hearts" in Farsi. "People pay less than before," said the elder Feayouji, a 47-year-old father of three, as he took a short break to speak to the AP. "I don't know why they do, but it shows people have less money than before."

Another US Warship Arrives in Middle East
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 24 June, 2019
Another American warship has arrived in the Middle East amid boiling tensions with Iran. The US Navy announced on Monday that the USS Boxer amphibious assault ship, along with the amphibious transport dock USS John P. Murtha and the amphibious dock landing ship USS Harpers Ferry arrived in the 5th Fleet's area of responsibility. The Navy did not elaborate on where the ships were. The 5th Fleet oversees the Navy's presence in the Arabian Gulf and surrounding Middle Eastern waters. The USS Boxer carries the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, as well as a combat helicopter squadron. It came from the Indian Ocean after leaving San Diego on May 1. The Boxer's group replaces that of the USS Kearsarge. Already, the American aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and accompanying vessels are in the region. It was rushed there in May by the White House over threats from Iran.

UK Warns of Accidental US-Iran War as Tehran Puts Conditions to Possible Concessions
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 24 June, 2019
Britain does not think either the United States or Iran want a war but is very concerned an accidental war could be triggered, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Monday. "We are very concerned: we don't think either side wants a war, but we are very concerned that we could get into an accidental war and we are doing everything we can to ratchet things down," Hunt told BBC radio. Hunt said Britain had been closely in touch with the United States over the "very dangerous situation in the Gulf" "We have been doing everything we can to de-escalate the situation," Hunt said. Tension is running high between longtime foes Iran and the United States after US President Donald Trump on Friday said he called off a military strike to retaliate for Iran's downing of a US drone. However, it was reported that the United States had launched cyber attacks, even as Trump backed away from a conventional attack.
US cyber attacks against Iranian targets have not been successful, Iran's telecoms minister said on Monday. "They try hard, but have not carried out a successful attack," Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi said on Twitter. "Media asked if the claimed cyber attacks against Iran are true," he said. "Last year we neutralized 33 million attacks with the (national) firewall." Azari Jahromi called attacks on Iranian computer networks "cyber-terrorism", referring to Stuxnet, a computer virus widely believed to have been developed by the United States and Israel, which was discovered in 2010 after it was used to attack a uranium enrichment facility in the Iranian city of Natanz. Last year, Trump withdrew the United States from a 2015 accord between Iran and world powers that curbed Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for easing sanctions. Relations in the region have worsened significantly since then. An adviser to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Monday that if Washington wants Iran to offer concessions that go beyond the terms of the nuclear deal, the US must offer incentives that also exceed those in the agreement. The comments were a rare indication from Tehran that it could discuss new concessions with Washington, although the adviser, Hesameddin Ashena, repeated Iran's line that any talks were impossible until Washington lifted sanctions it has reimposed since withdrawing from the deal last year. "US offer for negotiations with no precondition is not acceptable while sanctions and threats continue. If they want something beyond the JCPOA (the nuclear deal), they should offer something beyond the JCPOA; with international guarantees," he tweeted. Despite repeating that Washington wanted talks with Tehran, it said "significant" sanctions on Iran would be announced on Monday aimed at further choking off resources that the country uses to fund its activities in the region. But Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Moscow and its partners will take steps to counter possible new sanctions. In the comments, Ryabkov did not specify what those steps would be. He said the imposition of US sanctions would aggravate tensions, and Washington should instead be seeking dialogue with Tehran, the agencies quoted him as saying.

Jubeir: Iran Will ‘Pay the Price’ if Persists with Aggression
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 24 June, 2019
Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir has warned Iran there would be more sanctions if it continued its "aggressive policies", but said Riyadh wanted to avoid war. "Today, Iran is under severe economic sanctions," Jubeir told Le Monde newspaper in an interview published on Monday. "These sanctions will be strengthened. If Iran continues its aggressive policies, it will have to pay the price."Jubeir was speaking in Paris after meeting French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian as European powers seek to defuse tensions in the region after Iran downed a US military surveillance drone and was blamed for attacks on six oil tankers. "We said we wanted to avoid a war at all costs, like the Americans. It is the Iranians who are making the choice of escalation," Jubeir said. "You can not attack ships in the Gulf, you can not attack pipelines, you can not provide ballistic missiles to terrorist groups like the Houthis (in Yemen) to use against Saudi Arabia," he said.

U.S., UK, UAE, KSA Urge 'Diplomatic Solutions' on Iran
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 24/2019
The United States, Britain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on Monday jointly called for "diplomatic solutions" to ease soaring tensions with Iran. "We call on Iran to halt any further actions which threaten regional stability, and urge diplomatic solutions to de-escalate tensions," said the statement released by the United States as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Saudi and Emirati leaders.

Trump Says Other Nations Must Protect Own Shipping, Tells Iran 'No Nukes, No Terror'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 24/2019
President Donald Trump on Monday told other countries to protect their own Gulf oil shipments, declaring that the United States has only limited strategic interest in the "dangerous" region.
In a pair of tweets, Trump said U.S. aims regarding Iran boil down to "No Nuclear Weapons and No Further Sponsoring of Terror."
As for Iran's threats to shut sea lanes used to transport a large portion of the world's oil exports through the Persian Gulf, Washington is not concerned, Trump said. Stating that the United States is now the world's biggest energy producer, thereby weaning itself off decades of dependence on Middle Eastern oil, Trump said "we don't even need to be there."And the U.S. military should not be depended upon to keep the narrow sea routes along Iran's coast free.
"Why are we protecting the shipping lanes for other countries (many years) for zero compensation," he asked. "All of these countries should be protecting their own ships on what has always been a dangerous journey." As for Tehran, Trump said, his only demand is that the country not pursue nuclear weapons and halts what the United States claims is backing for terrorist groups. "The U.S. request for Iran is very simple," he wrote. Iran insists that it does not have a nuclear weapons program and it signed onto an international pact in 2015 meant to ensure that its nuclear industry sticks to civilian uses. Trump pulled the United States out of the deal in 2017, seeking its collapse.
Trump's latest signalling of a pullback from what has long been a region featuring an intense U.S. presence comes amid growing military tension between the United States and Iran. On Friday, Trump called off a bombing strike on Iranian facilities that had been planned as retaliation for the downing by Iran of a U.S. spy drone. Earlier, mysterious attacks were carried out on oil tankers transiting the same area. They were blamed on Iran by Washington, although the Iranians say they were not involved. Trump's tweets add to his record of seeking a wider drawdown of the U.S. diplomatic and military footprint around the world.

What's Wrong with Palestinian Surrender, Israel's U.N. Envoy Asks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 24/2019
Israel's U.N. ambassador on Monday urged Palestinians to surrender their struggle for a homeland in exchange for economic benefits as the United States prepared to roll out part of a peace plan promising billions of dollars. Palestinian leaders have said the U.S. plan will be tantamount to surrender and declared President Donald Trump's initiative as dead on arrival. "I ask: What's wrong with Palestinian surrender?" wrote Ambassador Danny Danon in a New York Times op-ed. "Surrender is the recognition that in a contest, staying the course will prove costlier than submission." Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner is set to open the conference in Bahrain later Monday to unveil plans for raising $50 billion in investment for the Palestinians and their Arab neighbors. "The Palestinians have little to lose and everything to gain by putting down the sword and accepting the olive branch," wrote Danon. Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat "misleadingly suggests that a 'surrender' will lead to an end of the Palestinian people," he added. "But nothing could be farther from the truth. Instead, surrendering will create the opportunity to transform Palestinian society, thereby leading to his people's liberation."Danon took aim at the Palestinian leadership, accusing it of corruption and citing a poll that said 90 percent of Palestinians do not trust it. The Gaza Strip is run by the militant group Hamas, whose "tactical playbook (is) drawn from Hizbullah and al-Qaida, and much of its financial support from Iran," he said.
A pledging conference to raise 1.2 billion dollars for the U.N. Palestinian agency UNRWA is due to open at U.N. headquarters in New York on Tuesday.

Palestinians Reject U.S.-Bahrain Peace Plan as Israel Advises 'Surrender'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 24/2019
The Palestinians on Monday vowed to reject a U.S.-led peace initiative to be presented in Bahrain that dangles the prospect of $50 billion as an Israeli envoy bluntly told them they should "surrender."Finance chiefs from the United States, oil-rich Arab states and international development institutions were flying to the tiny kingdom, which in a rarity is openly welcoming Israelis, who have forged an indirect alliance with Gulf rulers due to mutual hostility with Iran. Led by President Donald Trump's son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner, the Peace to Prosperity economic workshop that begins Tuesday evening is billed as the start of a new approach that will later include political solutions to the long intractable Middle East conflict. It proposes raising more than $50 billion in fresh investment for the Palestinians and their Arab neighbours with major projects to boost infrastructure, education, tourism and cross-border trade. The Palestinian Authority is boycotting the workshop, denouncing the plan for saying nothing about ending the Israeli occupation. "This economic workshop in Bahrain is really going to be nonsense," Palestinian prime minister Mohammad Shtayyeh told a cabinet meeting. "What Israel and the United States are trying to do now is simply to normalize relations with the Arabs at the expense of the Palestinians," he added. President Mahmoud Abbas has said the Palestinians "will not be slaves or servants" of Kushner or other Trump aides. "For America to turn the whole cause from a political issue into an economic one, we cannot accept this," he said.
'Palestinian surrender'
Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, criticized the Palestinian leadership for declaring that the plan amounted to surrender."I ask: What's wrong with Palestinian surrender?" he wrote in an opinion piece in The New York Times. "Surrender is the recognition that in a contest, staying the course will prove costlier than submission," he said. Denouncing both the "corrupt" Palestinian Authority and Hamas militants who control the Gaza Strip, Danon noted that Palestinian unemployment remained stubbornly high despite years of international assistance. "Given this woeful state of affairs, it is self-evident that the Palestinian people need a new course of action," Danon wrote, charging that Palestinian national identity was "motivated not by building a better life for its people but by destroying Israel."Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has spoken of annexing parts of the West Bank, also took the Palestinians to task. "I don't understand how the Palestinians rejected the plan even before knowing what it contained," Netanyahu said Sunday as he hosted Trump's national security adviser, John Bolton. "That's not how you move forward," Netanyahu said. The Trump administration says it will later release political proposals -- perhaps as late as November once Israel holds new elections and forms a government. But Trump officials have hinted their approach will not mention the creation of an independent Palestinian state, a goal of U.S. diplomacy for decades.
Financial woes
The Palestinian Authority is facing growing financial strains as it refuses to accept tax revenue collected on its behalf by Israel because Israeli authorities are deducting millions of dollars that went to prisoners in Israeli jails or their families. Arab League finance ministers on Sunday renewed a pledge to pay $100 million a month to the Palestinian Authority to stabilise its finances. But in an implicit rebuke to the U.S. approach, they insisted on "complete Arab support to the Palestinian state's economic, political and financial independence."Saudi minister of state for foreign affairs Adel al-Jubeir said the Bahrain workshop "is not about buying peace." "In no way is this about forcing the Palestinians to accept an agreement that they don't like and to draw a connection -- you accept this and you'll get that," he told Le Monde on a visit to France. The promises of massive investment come months after the U.S. Agency for International Development suspended its work in the Palestinian territories due to U.S. legislation that makes US aid recipients liable to anti-terrorism lawsuits. The Trump administration has also ended all funding to the U.N. agency that provides education, medicine and food to Palestinian refugees and has taken a series of landmark decisions on behalf of Israel. In December 2017, Trump recognised bitterly disputed Jerusalem as Israel's capital, leading the Palestinians to cut off contact with the United States. Aaron David Miller, a veteran U.S. negotiator on the Middle East, said the idea of a major economic plan for the Palestinians was not new. "Had Trump administration not spent the last two years waging an economic/political pressure campaign against the Palestinians and undermined their aspirations on statehood/Jerusalem, the plan would have made sense," he said.

U.S.-Led Bahrain Meeting: A Chance for Israel-Gulf Rapprochement?
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 24/2019
A U.S.-led peace conference on the Palestinian economy could present Washington with a new opportunity to push Gulf allies and Israel closer together as tensions with common foe Iran rise. The Palestinian Authority is boycotting the Peace to Prosperity conference that opens Tuesday in Bahrain, charging that it is seeking to buy off the Palestinians and deprive them of an independent state. Gulf powerhouses Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are taking part in the two-day meeting but it is not clear if other US allies -- Kuwait, Oman and Qatar -- will attend. Israel -- which Bahrain does not recognise -- has said it will take part but did not specify if it would be represented by government officials or business leaders. Gulf countries are "well aware a Palestinian investment conference without Palestinians and even without official Israeli participation is ridiculous", said Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute. "I think the Gulf countries are simply trying to win brownie points with the Trump administration, particularly at a time of heightened confrontation with Iran," he said. The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is keen to use the conference to push for closer ties between the oil-rich Gulf Arabs states and Israel to bolster an anti-Iran coalition. "I don’t think the... absence of Palestinian political leaders... makes any difference to the U.S. administration's desire to deepen the nascent but undeclared alliance between itself, Israel and some Gulf Arab states against Iran," said Middle East analyst Neil Partrick. "In terms of the individual national security priorities of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain, Iran has long been of greater importance to them than the almost extinct ideological pressure that Palestine once placed on the policies and behaviour of all Arab state leaders," he added.
Israel courts Arabs
The workshop -- led by Trump's son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner -- will focus on the economic aspects of the U.S. president's long-delayed plan to resolve the decades-old Middle East conflict. On Saturday the U.S. unveiled details of the plan, saying it aims to raise more than $50 billion for the Palestinians and create one million jobs for them within a decade. Senior Palestinian official Hanan Ashrawi rejected the plan, saying the United States should instead press Israel to withdraw from occupied land and allow the Palestinians to thrive. Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas said it was not possible to discuss the economic aspects before finalising a political solution. Egypt and Jordan -- the only two Arab countries to have peace treaties with Israel -- will be represented in Bahrain by senior finance ministry officials. In recent years Israel has been courting Arab nations which do not recognize the Jewish state, and in October last year Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held surprise talks in Muscat with the ruler of Oman. These efforts at rapprochement came as Iran -- the arch-foe of Israel and regional rival of Gulf kingpin Saudi Arabia -- was bolstering its influence in several Arab countries.
Analysts say improved ties between Israel and Arab countries cannot take place in the absence of a tangible progress to defuse the decades-long Palestinian-Israeli conflict. "If you want to unite everyone against Iran, you need to do something in the (Mideast) peace process," Yoel Guzansky, a former head of the Gulf department at Israel's National Security Council, told AFP. Ibish agreed. "A real, open and meaningful rapprochement in not on the cards," he said, pointing to the dispute over the city of Jerusalem -- which both Palestinians and Israeli claim as their own. The Palestinians have boycotted the U.S. administration since Trump broke with decades of consensus by recognising Jerusalem as Israel's capital in 2017 and moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to the holy city last year. Arab countries participating in the Bahrain workshop are under pressure from Palestinians who consider the U.S. peace plan will only liquidate their cause. U.S. officials have hinted that the political part of the plan -- which could come out later this year -- will not mention the creation of an independent Palestinian state, a goal of decades of U.S. diplomacy.

Australian Islamic State Orphans Rescued from Syria Camp
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 24/2019
Eight orphans of Australian Islamic State fighters have been spirited out of a camp in Syria, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Monday, in an apparent U-turn. The children and grandchildren of two notorious jihadis are now in the care of Australian officials, he said in a statement.
The children are believed to be aged between two and 17 and were living in a camp in northern Syria -- making consular access all but impossible. Morrison previously indicated his government would only help citizens if they approached an embassy or consulate but appeared to have had a change of heart. "The fact that parents put their children into harm's way by taking them into a war zone was a despicable act," Morrison said in a statement. "However, children should not be punished for the crimes of their parents."The group includes three surviving children and two grandchildren of Sydney-born Khaled Sharrouf -- who came to prominence after posting a photo of one of his sons holding the head of a Syrian soldier. There are also three children of Yasin Rizvic who travelled from Australia to Syria with his wife.Both Islamic State fighters are presumed dead.Morrison did not name the children or elaborate on how they were removed, but confirmed they were "repatriated from the conflict zone into the care of Australian government officials". The Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported that the children had been moved to a country neighbouring Syria. Their case had gained widespread attention after the grandmother of the Sharrouf children -- 17-year-old heavily pregnant Zaynab, her younger sister Hoda, their eight-year-old brother Hamzeh, and Zaynab's two young children Ayesha, three, and Fatima, two -- had pleaded with Canberra to bring them home. Grandmother Karen Nettleton even travelled to the camp earlier this year to meet them but was rebuffed by authorities, and Morrison said he did not want to put Australian lives at risk. The prime minister on Monday repeated his concerns, adding that "repatriating these children was not a decision the Australian government made lightly". "Australia's national security and the safety of our people and personnel have always been our most important considerations in this matter," he said. The fate of foreign fighters and their families has become a significant problem for governments as the conflict against IS draws to a close. Several European countries, including France and Belgium, have repatriated children from Syria in recent months.

Egypt Attending Bahrain Conference to ‘Evaluate’ It
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 24 June, 2019
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said Monday that his country will take part in the upcoming Bahrain conference on Palestinian economic development to “evaluate” the United States’ “Peace to Prosperity” plan. “It is important for Egypt to participate to listen to this proposition and evaluate it...but not in terms of approving it,” he said in a televised interview with Russia Today. “We have the right to evaluate it, view it and develop a vision about it, but the final decision about it goes back to the main stakeholder - the Palestinian Authority.”The June 25-26 conference in the Bahraini capital Manama will discuss a US-led economic vision to be presented by President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, part of a wider plan to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. But the lack of a political solution, which Washington has said would be unveiled later has prompted rejection from Palestinians and skepticism from Arab countries. The economy-first approach toward reviving the moribund Israeli-Palestinian peace process, in which Palestinians are seeking an independent state, has prompted a Palestinian boycott of the conference. The Palestinian Authority said Kushner's "abstract promises" were an attempt to bribe Palestinians into accepting Israeli occupation. The plan includes 179 infrastructure and business projects. More than half of $50 billion would be spent in the economically troubled Palestinian territories over 10 years while the rest would be split between Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will take part in the Bahrain gathering along with officials from Egypt, Jordan and Morocco. The White House has not invited the Israeli government to Bahrain.

Three Months On, Landless ISIS Still a Threat in Syria
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 24 June, 2019
The ISIS group may have lost its "caliphate", but three months later, experts have warned the militants are still attacking fighters and fields in Syria to show they remain relevant. The Syrian Democratic Forces announced they had expelled the extremists from their last patch of land in eastern Syria on March 23, after a months-long campaign backed by airstrikes of a US-led coalition. The Kurdish-Arab alliance taking control of the riverside village of Baghouz spelled the end of the militant proto-state declared in 2014 in large parts of Syria and neighboring Iraq. But even as the Kurdish-led force fights to quash sleeper cells in northeast Syria, ISIS continues to claim regular attacks there and in other parts of the war-torn country. "ISIS has never stopped being a threat in northern and eastern Syria," says Syria expert Nicholas Heras. Over the past three months, they have claimed regular attacks in SDF-held areas, including targeted killings and setting fire to vital wheat crops. The deadliest include a car bombing on June 1 that took the lives of 10 civilians and seven SDF fighters in the northern city of Raqqa, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says. On April 9, another suicide blast killed 13 people, mostly civilians, also in the group's former de-facto Syrian capital. "At its core, the ISIS strategy in the SDF-controlled areas, the areas that ISIS once ruled, is to frustrate any designs to replace it", Heras said.
'Hearts and minds'
"ISIS is locked in a tug-of-war with the United States and the SDF to win the hearts and minds of the local Arab population," the analyst at the Center for a New American Security said. The SDF is led by Kurdish fighters, but areas recently taken from ISIS in eastern Syria are largely Arab-majority. Both the Damascus regime and the SDF are competing for the favor of these tribes in the oil-rich Deir Ezzor province. Tactics such as crop burning and assassinations are making it difficult for the SDF to build new order, and help persuade residents that no viable alternative to ISIS exists, Heras said. Elsewhere in the country, the militants also continue to be a headache. In Syria's vast desert, they continue to hit regime forces with deadly attacks and ambushes, years into a Russia-backed campaign to eliminate them. The Britain-based Observatory says more than 150 loyalist fighters have been killed since March 24, the latest four on Sunday. Even in the northwestern anti-government stronghold of Idlib, the extremists are present. Online, ISIS loyalists have revved up their propaganda machine to big up alleged feats in other parts of the world. "What matters the most now is to convince people that they're here to stay," Syrian analyst Hassan Hassan said. They want to persuade "potential recruits that they have a long term project that goes beyond holding territory". Suicide bombings in Sri Lanka that killed 258 people on April 21, and elusive ISIS supremo Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's first appearance in five years in video footage posted on April 29, likely did just this.
'Include locals'
The US-led coalition has said it is backing the SDF in northeast Syria to quash thousands of remaining loyalists. "The so-called physical caliphate is defeated, but Daesh as an organization is not," coalition spokesman James Rawlinson said, using an Arabic acronym for ISIS. Last week, the SDF detained several ISIS loyalists in two operations in Deir Ezzor and the northeastern province of Hasakeh, it has said. In areas now under SDF control, US-backed forces are also helping to clear landmines, Rawlinson said. And they are working to set up military councils "to assume all security functions for their communities, provide stability, and work toward normalcy", he told AFP. Last week, the SDF announced the formation of such a council in Raqqa. "These local and regional initiatives are important to ensuring the enduring defeat of Daesh," Rawlinson said. Hassan warned the coalition and its Kurdish-led allies should act fast while ISIS is still "on the run and defeated". "The fear is that, as time goes by, ISIS will be able to reorganize itself and then the coalition will lose that window of opportunity where they can make a big difference," he said. Including members of local Arab communities with real influence in decision-making was key, Hassan said. "Locals have to be included in the process, in security, and in politics, and running their own areas without feeling they are governed by out-of-towners," he said.

Iraqi Cabinet Still Incomplete after Key Ministers Approved
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 24 June, 2019
Iraq's deputy speaker said Monday that lawmakers have approved three cabinet ministers whose posts have been vacant since the formation of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi's government in October. Hassan al-Kaabi told The Associated Press that the parliament approved Najah al-Shammari for defense minister, Yassin al-Yassiri as interior minister and Farouq Amin Othman for the post of justice minister. The three were sworn in on Monday. Kaabi said the appointment of the education minister was postponed after the nominee for the portfolio failed to get enough votes.
In October, Iraq's parliament voted to confirm Abdul Mahdi's new government while leaving the four cabinet posts unfilled, underscoring the rivalry among Iraqi politicians. Abdul Mahdi had earlier proposed others for the posts but his proposals were rejected by other groups until consensus on the new names was reached.

Another US Warship Arrives in Middle East
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 24 June, 2019
Another American warship has arrived in the Middle East amid boiling tensions with Iran. The US Navy announced on Monday that the USS Boxer amphibious assault ship, along with the amphibious transport dock USS John P. Murtha and the amphibious dock landing ship USS Harpers Ferry arrived in the 5th Fleet's area of responsibility. The Navy did not elaborate on where the ships were. The 5th Fleet oversees the Navy's presence in the Arabian Gulf and surrounding Middle Eastern waters. The USS Boxer carries the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, as well as a combat helicopter squadron. It came from the Indian Ocean after leaving San Diego on May 1. The Boxer's group replaces that of the USS Kearsarge. Already, the American aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and accompanying vessels are in the region.It was rushed there in May by the White House over threats from Iran.

Iraqi Special Forces Kill 14 ISIS Militants in Country's North
Baghdad- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 24 June, 2019
Iraqi special forces say they have conducted an operation near the northern city of Kirkuk in which they killed 14 members of the ISIS group. A statement from Iraqi Counterterrorism Forces on Monday says that during the operation, Iraqi forces received support from warplanes of the US-led coalition. The statement says the operation, just south of Kirkuk, lasted for two days and included Iraqi special forces rappelling from helicopters. Although Iraq declared victory against ISIS in July 2017, the extremists have since been trying to mount a guerrilla-style insurgency, going into hiding and staging surprise attacks in different parts of the country.

UN Rights Chief Urges Sudan to Halt Repression, Give Monitors Access
Geneva/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 24 June, 2019
Sudanese authorities must grant human rights monitors access to the country and end "repression" against protesters and the shutdown of the Internet, UN human rights boss Michelle Bachelet said on Monday. Bachelet, in a speech opening a three-week session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, voiced deep concern over Sudan, which has been wracked by tensions between protest leaders and the generals who seized power after the army ousted long-time president Omar al-Bashir in April. Sudan’s uprising “has been met with a brutal crackdown by the security forces this month,” Bachelet said. Sudan’s ruling military council said on Sunday that Ethiopia and the African Union needed to unify their efforts to mediate between the council and an opposition coalition on the structure of the country’s transitional government. The generals and the opposition have been wrangling for weeks over what form Sudan’s transitional government should take after Bashir's removal from power. Bachelet cited reports that more than 100 people were killed and many more injured in a bloody breakup of a peaceful rally on June 3. "We have received allegations of rape and sexual abuse of both women and men during the crackdown, as well as information alleging that hundreds of protestors may be missing," she said. "I regret that the government has not responded to our request for access to investigate allegations of serious human rights violations by the joint security forces during the crackdown," she added. Bachelet also called for Sudan to end a nationwide internet blockade.

LNA Thwarts New Attack on Tripoli Airport
Cairo - Khalid Mahmoud/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 24 June, 2019
Fighting between the Libyan National Army and militias loyal to the Government of National Accord subsided in the capital Tripoli on Sunday as the LNA ambushed GNA forces near the former international airport, leaving several militia fighters dead. The LNA, which is led by Khalifa Haftar, said it caused many casualties in the ranks of militias backing GNA head Fayez al-Sarraj in an ambush near the abandoned airport. “Those who survived the ambush, have escaped, leaving behind their military vehicles and ammunition,” it said. Four militiamen were captured, the statement added. Meanwhile, UN envoy Ghassan Salame held a meeting at the UN Hub in Benghazi with a group of tribal elders from the Eastern Region. The meeting focused on the need to strengthen the development’s efforts of the UN mission and UN agencies in the Eastern Region. Salame “expressed the UN determination to strengthen its presence in the eastern region from Benghazi,” the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) said in a statement. “The tribal elders called on the UN to work towards achieving a fair distribution of Libyan wealth,” it added. Salame had met with Haftar on Saturday to discuss the Tripoli offensive and ways to "accelerate the transition towards reaching a political solution" in the country, the UN said. Meanwhile, Libya's National Oil Company warned that any bid to tamper with the sector could escalate unrest in the country, after the parliamentary speaker called for a halt to production. In a statement issued late Saturday, NOC said it "is concerned by recent calls for the shutdown of national oil production". "Any deliberate disruption of oil sector operations will severely impact national revenue streams, potentially render NOC in contravention of contractual obligations, and create further division in the country."Last week parliamentary speaker Aguila Saleh Issa said oil production must cease, accusing the GNA of using oil revenues to finance the militias fighting Haftar. "This crucial source of income to the state, vital to all Libyans, must remain de-politicized and uninterrupted," NOC said responded on Saturday.

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 24-25/2019
The General of Economic Sanctions
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/June 24/2019
The world held its breath when President Donald Trump met with senior officials from his administration to respond to Iran’s downing of an American drone. The world was right to worry as the development was preceded by direct or indirect provocations that took aim at oil tankers and civilian targets. It was clear that Iran has steered away from its “strategic patience” policy and opted to push the crisis towards the edge of the abyss.
Observers were also right to worry when the decision lies in the hands of two unpredictable men. The first is Trump, the captain whose response to storms is unpredictable and who has an exceptional talent in surprising his advisers and, with them, the world. The second is supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who is finding it difficult, especially during this phase, to be lenient about his and his country’s image.
What took place during that intriguing meeting is no longer a mystery. It was clear that the secretary of state, national security adviser and CIA chief supported sending a military message that reminds Iran of the red lines it should not cross in its challenge to the United States. The senior general, however, wondered what the US would do if Iran replied to the message by expanding its scope of provocations in the region. Trading blows could hold the threat of eventually spiraling into all-out war. The president chose to resort to the weapon of patience and give Tehran a “last chance”.
This is not strange. Trump is not a general dreaming of victory in war. He is not a civilian hiding in general’s clothing. He comes from a different ilk that believes in deals and settlements. Moreover, he was very eager to return American troops from conflict zones in Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. His decision to withdraw from eastern Syria after ISIS’ defeat raised the concern of his advisers and European allies, who exerted major pressure on him to postpone the pullout and he was forced to comply. Trump believes that his country possesses other weapons besides warplanes and destroyers. It has the weapon of economic sanctions and he does not hesitate to resort to them.
Trump’s decision was in line with his previous stances. He had declared early on that he was not seeking war with Tehran and he has relayed messages to it in this regard. He had also informed it that the US was not seeking the overthrow of the Iranian regime, but its pressure is aimed at forcing it to change its behavior over the nuclear and ballistic files and its regional policy. Furthermore, Trump believes that Iran’s resorting to “edge of war” practices is clear evidence that the oil sanctions against it were really having a painful impact.
In return, Iran, through its practices and those of its proxies, sent a message that war against it will spark conflict on several fronts against the interests of the US and its allies. It also sent a message that depriving it of exporting oil will deprive other countries in Europe and Asia from obtaining oil through the Hormuz Strait. It also delivered a message that it will eventually abandon its nuclear deal commitments, meaning it will return to enriching uranium at an alarming rate.
Before making a move that could lead to war, Trump should have looked at the relations between his country and each of Russia and China and taken into consideration the European stance that wants to save the nuclear pact and avoid going back to square-one and heading to a war that would impact the global economy. Trump gave the Europeans the chance to seek de-escalation and find ways to return to the dialogue table, especially since Iran flooded Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to Tehran with escalatory practices. Perhaps Trump wanted to test Europe’s ability to convince Iran that ending painful sanctions demands flexibility on its end over its pending issues that go beyond the nuclear file to its ballistic missile program and destabilizing behavior through its proxies. This is why he moved the conflict with Iran to the UN Security Council and announced new sanctions against Tehran.
A lot has been written in recent years that the Middle East was no longer a priority for world powers. Officials and analysts have confirmed that this resource- and conflict-rich region was no longer topping their strategies. It was said that the US, which was sensing the growing Asian might, will focus its attention on China’s neighbors to counter its rapid rise. Some went to say that the US was resigning from its role as the Middle East’s policeman because the flow of oil was not under threat and because Israel remained militarily superior. Barack Obama’s policy was keen on keeping the US away from the simmering Middle Eastern conflicts. This led to the American troop pullout from Iraq and Washington’s participation in the nuclear deal with Iran. Some believed that the era of dispatching fleets to the region had ended after they had become preoccupied with Russian behavior in other seas and Chinese shows of force in others.
Suddenly, it turned out that the Middle East was greatly attractive and had enough cracks and dangers to once again lure in world powers to its shores and territories. It all began when ISIS reared its ugly head and was followed by renewed Iranian-fueled tensions in the region. And here we are, with the deployment of American forces in the Gulf and its waters. We also see the Russian army in Syria where it has struck deals that will see it remain there for the long-term.
Despite all that has been written, the Trump administration has found itself embroiled in a major test in the terrible Middle East. Iran is banking on threatening the global economy and blowing Trump’s chances for a second term in office by raising oil prices. Trump is banking on the impact of economic sanctions to force Iran to yield to him what it refused to yield to Obama.
The discussions on Iran that will take place on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka this week are very important. We are in the middle of the crisis and its outcome is difficult to predict. The generals of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards may conclude that it would be a challenge to keep escalating the situation against Trump, the general of economic sanctions. Destabilizing the foundations of Iran’s economy are more dangerous to the land of the supreme leader than the strikes against missile platforms, radars and bridges. The Soviet Union was armed to the teeth, but it collapsed without a bullet being fired against it.

Trump and US Allies Can Still Make Iran Blink
James Stavridis/Bloomberg View/June 24/2019
The Trump administration’s initial decision to strike Iran in retaliation for the destruction of a $130 million drone was understandable yet dangerous. The decision to abort the mission, after telegraphing it to the world, creates a big problem. Above all, it smacks of indecision and division within the president’s inner circle, the last thing you need when you are in a slow escalation with an unpredictable, over-proud lesser enemy.
There is little question that a military strike on, say, the missile battery that downed the Global Hawk reconnaissance drone on Thursday would be justified. It was clearly a conscious call by the regime, and I seriously doubt the claim that it was in Iranian airspace. I have been both the supreme commander of NATO, which deploys a variant of the Global Hawk, and an advisor to the manufacturer, Northrop Grumman, and in my experience the navigational precision of these aircraft is superb -- far better than manned flights. I have never heard of a high-end drone like this being deliberately or accidently flown into a hostile nation’s territorial airspace.
Which leads to the big question: What could the Iranians be thinking? And how does the US use the non-strike to its advantage?
The Iranians are taking a page out of the playbook of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who, among other affronts, launches missiles in the direction of Japan, seeking to demonstrate to the US and the global community that he can be a great deal of trouble. The Iranians are trying to demonstrate they can close the Strait of Hormuz, causing a significant disruption to the flow of oil and thus the global economy. Their theory, evidently, is that they will escalate until reaching the point at which the US will calculate it doesn’t want a third war in the Middle East and would rather ease economic sanctions. It is a flawed calculation given the enormous bite of US sanctions and European unwillingness to bail Iran out, but it has a certain logic.
Trump, of course, would like to avoid a war over the next 18 months before the 2020 election. He seemed, at first, to hope that the Iranians would declare the downing of the drone a mistake and back off. But there was no chance of that happening. If the Iranians had any intent of negotiating, they would have made it via the good offices of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who on a recent visit presented a letter to the Iranian leadership asking for talks. It was immediately and sharply rejected.
The next logical step will be to dangerously harass a US warship, probably with a swarm of small boats, a tactic the Revolutionary Guard Corps practices frequently. The Iranians might also broaden their tactics, using a proxy such as the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah to attack Israel or a European nation. Another move could be actually sinking an oil tanker approaching the Strait of Hormuz with a torpedo from their capable diesel submarine force.
The US is studying military options other than a strike, according to Pentagon leadership. Those presented to the president will likely include relatively low-level moves like cyberattacks on parts of the Iranian grid; or perhaps enhanced aggressive surveillance through overflights by combat aircraft from carrier Abraham Lincoln, which is in the Gulf. The medium-weight options include actually going ahead with a Tomahawk missile strike against the surface-to-air missile site that destroyed the drone. If Trump chooses to go in heavy (unlikely) the options will include destroying IRGC ships and barracks at ports in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s mine-laying force in particular would be a powerful symbolic target.
Any of this would lead to harsh counter-moves by Iran and a ladder of escalation. So the best approach for the White House right now is to declare the non-strike an effective show of America’s military potential, and then pump the brakes and assess whether the Iranians really want to further ramp up aggression.
The problem is that it’s hard to see a climb-down for the Iranians at this point. For the US, the key strategic effort ought to be winning over the European and Asian allies to condemn Iranian behavior – including the attacks on tankers in the Gulf over the past month and Iran’s drone attacks on Saudi Arabia. This could cause the Iranians to blink. But the window for it – and avoiding real combat between the US and Iran – is narrowing rapidly.

 Analysis/Iran’s Attack on U.S. Drone Is Just a Preview of What’s to Come in Mideast
عاموس هاريل/الهآرتس: الهجوم الإيراني على الطائرة الأمريكية بدون طيار هو مجرد عرض مسبق لما سيحدث في الشرق الأوسط
Amos Harel/Haaretz/June 24/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76090/%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b3-%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%b9/
Aborting the retaliatory strike is praise-worthy, but it doesn’t seem to have convinced Tehran that it’s better off stopping its provocations.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s about-face in deciding not to attack Iran in response to its downing of an American drone isn’t the beginning of the end of the Gulf crisis. It isn’t even the end of the beginning.
Iranian attacks on targets belonging to America’s allies in the Middle East (and in the case of the drone, an American target) haven’t achieved their goal yet. On the other hand, Tehran also hasn’t received a resounding lesson about the costs of its actions.
Therefore, it’s very possible that such Iranian actions will continue, either via satellite organizations like the Houthis in Yemen or Shi’ite militias in Iraq, or by the Revolutionary Guards themselves, albeit without officially claiming responsibility.
The praise Trump won for refraining from escalating the situation is justified, but it didn’t solve the problem at the heart of the crisis. Tehran wants to force Washington to ease the economic sanctions against it. But Washington is conditioning this on a return to negotiations over a new version of the nuclear deal, which would impose much more stringent terms on the Iranians.
This is a gap that currently seems difficult to bridge. And in the absence of a solution, Iran will presumably continue to apply pressure, possibly in the near future.
Iran clearly doesn’t want a war. Though a war wouldn’t obliterate it, as Trump threatened over the weekend, the balance of forces doesn’t favor the Islamic Republic. Yet nothing the U.S. administration has done to date seems to have convinced the Iranians that they’d be better off stopping their provocations.
In his statements to the media after aborting the attack, Trump presented his decision as choice between two options: approving a strike on Iran’s aerial defense system that the Pentagon predicted would have killed around 150 people, or scrapping it. But in reality, the Americans have a broader range of choices.
On Saturday, the president threatened on Twitter to impose additional, unspecified sanctions on Iran. Perhaps he meant that the sanctions would be imposed in response to Iran’s declared intent to exceed the permitted ceiling on its stockpile of low-enriched uranium in a few days. America’s restraint, as reflected in the decision not to bomb Iran, may pay off when it needs to recruit parts of the international community to support its position.
On Monday, at the Americans’ request, the UN Security Council will hold a closed session on Iran’s conduct. It will be easier to obtain widespread agreement, particularly with European countries, if Washington isn’t suspected of deliberately escalating the situation.
Trump’s threats against Iran have been accompanied by carrots. But with him, it’s hard to know whether this is an orderly plan or just improvisation. In a conversation with journalists over the weekend, the president said he is open to reaching a quick deal with Iran that would rescue its economy from crisis. “Let’s make Iran great again,” he added, riffing on his successful campaign slogan.
But early Sunday morning, the Washington Post reported that instead of the aborted kinetic strike on Iran, Trump ordered a cyberattack against its missile command systems. Another cyberattack targeted the Iranian intelligence unit behind the attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. This leak was presumably meant to somewhat compensate for the damage to Trump’s image caused by his decision not to attack, as well as responding to critics’ charges that this decision undermined America’s deterrence in the region.
So far, there have been no reports on how much damage these cyberattacks caused. In the past, it took months or even years for such information to emerge.
Russia has made major use of offensive cyberweapons over the last decade, including against Georgia, the Baltic states and Turkey. The Iranians also haven’t refrained from such attacks – albeit on a smaller scale – and the United States and Israel developed the Stuxnet virus to disrupt the progress of Iran’s nuclear program early in the decade.
Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, is currently in Israel ahead of a summit with his Israeli and Russian counterparts. At a joint press conference in Jerusalem with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Bolton – who is considered the administration’s most hawkish member, especially regarding Iran – warned Tehran not to “mistake U.S. prudence and discretion for weakness.” The American army is ready for action, he added, and Iran will never obtain nuclear weapons.
But opposition to war with Iran isn’t coming only from the Democrats, who don’t believe a word the president says. Trump himself has expressed hindsight opposition to the United States’ military entanglements in Iraq and Afghanistan.
And according to media reports, Trump’s decision this weekend was influenced by right-wing television host Tucker Carlson of Fox News, who warned that a war could undermine Trump’s hopes of winning reelection next year. Isolationist sentiment is strong among parts of the Republican electorate, too.
Perhaps the Americans have already found a way to talk discreetly with the Iranians, even amid the ongoing crisis. But without negotiations between the parties and an easing of the sanctions, Iran will presumably continue to sting the Americans, possibly in the near future.
The tension in the Gulf is liable to overshadow the economic workshop in Bahrain later this week, an event the president’s peace team has spent months planning. The Israeli journalists heading to Bahrain may yet find themselves reporting more on the latest events in the Gulf than on promises to invest huge amounts of money in the Palestinians.

The US Should Designate Muslim Brotherhood a Terrorist Organization
الصحافي التركي أزوي بيولوت/معهد جايتستون: يجب أن تدرج أميركا جماعة الإخوان المسلمين على قوائم الإرهاب
Uzay Bulut//Gatestone Institute/June 24/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76092/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b5%d8%ad%d8%a7%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%b1%d9%83%d9%8a-%d8%a3%d8%b2%d9%88%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%88%d9%84%d9%88%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b3/
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14296/muslim-brotherhood-terrorist-designation
The Muslim Brotherhood, founded in Egypt in 1928, is a pro-jihad, Islamist movement that has branches throughout the world and seeks to implement Islamic sharia under a global caliphate. Terrorism is only one of the methods the Brotherhood employs, and among its, goals, "democratization" has never been seen as one of them. The Counter Extremism Project "has recorded 44 individuals and groups tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, including terrorist groups, foreign fighters, extremist propagandists, and political leaders."
The Trump administration's designating the Muslim Brotherhood as a terror organization would be an effective blow to pro-sharia and jihadi groups across the globe and help to bring about less violence and more stability to both the Muslim and non-Muslim worlds.
The emblem of the Muslim Brotherhood, and its founder, Hassan al-Banna.
US President Donald Trump is working to designate the Muslim Brotherhood a foreign terrorist organization (FTO), the White House announced on April 30. The spokesman for Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Omer Celik, responded by saying that if the United States designated the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization, it would "hamper democratization efforts in the Middle East and serve militant groups like Islamic State."
The Muslim Brotherhood, however, founded in Egypt in 1928, is a pro-jihad, Islamist movement that has branches throughout the world and seeks to implement Islamic sharia under a global caliphate. Terrorism is only one of the methods the Brotherhood employs, and among its, goals, "democratization" has never been seen as one of them. Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna openly announced that his aim was to bring back the caliphate. The Muslim Brotherhood's official English-language website quotes Banna:
"Islam does not recognize geographical boundaries, nor does it acknowledge racial and blood differences, considering all Muslims as one Umma [global community of Muslims]. The Muslim Brethren [Muslim Brotherhood]... believe that the caliphate is a symbol of Islamic Union and an indication of the bonds between the nations of Islam. They see the caliphate and its re-establishment as a top priority..."
According to a report by the Counter Extremism Project (CEP): "Banna was concerned with what he considered the greatest threat to Islam: the rise of secularism and Western culture in Muslim societies. To counter this danger, Banna began dawa (proselytization) in schools, mosques, and coffee houses, spreading his pan-Islamist ideology and emphasizing the need to return to sharia. "In the 1950s and 1960s, the Brotherhood's most notable theorist, Sayyid Qutb, promoted jihad as an offensive force to be used against secular Arab governments... Indeed, Qutb helped to re-popularize the Islamic concept of takfir, by which Muslims serving a secular ruler are rendered apostates and thus legitimate targets for execution."
The Counter Extremism Project has also documented ideological and operational links between the Brotherhood's ideology and terrorist groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS (Islamic State):
"CEP has recorded 44 individuals and groups tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, including terrorist groups, foreign fighters, extremist propagandists, and political leaders.
"The writings of Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna and early Brotherhood ideologue Sayyid Qutb have helped mold the ideologies of violent terror groups like al-Qaeda, ISIS, and Hamas.
"Al-Qaeda co-founders Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri proclaimed 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, and ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi all belonged to the Muslim Brotherhood before assuming roles in their respective terror networks.
"Internationally designated terror group Hamas is a direct offshoot of the Brotherhood, created as the organization's Palestinian wing."
Professor Barry Rubin, the editor of the 2010 book The Muslim Brotherhood: The Organization and Policies of a Global Islamist Movement, noted that one could refer to multiple Brotherhoods, mainly those in Egypt, Jordan, and Syria as well as the Middle Eastern and European Brotherhoods. He wrote:
"While following tactics and strategies appropriate for its specific circumstances—and also based on the preferences of its local leaders—the Brotherhood does seek a thoroughly Islamized society and polity in which it exercises state power.
"As for violence or terrorism, there is no principled opposition to such tactics..."
"Regarding al-Qa'ida, the Brotherhoods approve in principle of its militancy, attacks on America, and ideology (or at least respects its ideologues), but views it as a rival. An example of this kind of thinking comes from Rajab Hilal Hamida, a Brotherhood member in Egypt's parliament, who said:
'From my point of view, bin Ladin, al-Zawahiri and al-Zarqawi are not terrorists in the sense accepted by some. I support all their activities, since they are a thorn in the side of the Americans and the Zionists. . . . [On the other hand,] he who kills Muslim citizens is neither a jihad fighter nor a terrorist, but a criminal and a murderer. We must call things by their proper names!'"
"The Brotherhood, however, is not only a Middle Eastern or even a Muslim-majority country phenomenon anymore," Rubin warned. "With the massive migration of Muslims to Europe, the Brotherhood—with its history, organization, cadre, clear ideology, and international connections—was in the perfect position to affect their thinking and compete for their leadership."
Rubin defined the Muslim Brotherhood as "by far the most successful Islamist group in the world": "What is clear and vital is that while other Islamist groups have made more dramatic appearances, launched huge terrorist attacks, and fought civil wars, the Muslim Brotherhoods have shown more staying power and better organizational skills. The Brotherhoods' ability to maneuver, build bases of support with patience, pose as moderate, and employ both violent and electoral tactics, make them far more impressive political actors. The oldest of modern Islamist groups, the Brotherhoods seem to have the brightest future, albeit their rule would bring tragedy and disaster to the communities they seek to dominate and the societies they seek to rule."
Omer Celik, however, spokesman for Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), has said that a US designation of the Brotherhood a terrorist entity would "undoubtedly yield extremely wrong results regarding stability, human rights, basic rights and freedoms in countries of the Islamic world."
"At the same time, [Trump's move] is the biggest support that can be given to the propaganda of Daesh," he added, referring to Islamic State.
Celik seems to employ a common tactic of the Brotherhood: Trying to pose as a pro-democracy, moderate movement while at the same time trying to eliminate secularism and the rule of law in his own country and enabling armed jihad in the wider region. As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said early in his career: "Democracy is like a train; you get off once you have reached your destination."
The Muslim Brotherhood has, over the last decades, also successfully implanted itself in the United States, with groups that include:
"... [T]he Muslim Students' Association (MSA) founded in 1963, the North American Islamic Trust (NAIT) 1971, the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA) 1981, the International Institute of Islamic Thought (IIIT) 1981, the Islamic Association for Palestine (IAP) 1981, the United Association for Studies and Research (UASR) 1989, the American Muslim Council (AMC) 1990, the Muslim American Society (MAS) 1992, the Muslim Arab Youth Association (MAYA), the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) 1994, and others. In fact, nearly all prominent Islamic organizations in the United States are rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood."
There are also many equivalent Muslim Brotherhood adherent organizations in Canada, some of which have changed their names.
The Muslim Brotherhood has done enormous damage to human rights, freedoms and peace across the world and particularly in majority-Muslim countries. The Trump administration's designating the Brotherhood as a terror organization would be an effective blow to pro-sharia and jihadi groups across the globe and help to bring about less violence and more stability to both the Muslim and non-Muslim worlds.
*Uzay Bulut, a Turkish journalist, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Istanbul: 'Everything Is Coming Up Roses'
الصحافي التركي بيوراك بكديل/معهد كايتستون: كل شيء يأتي من اسطنبول هو وردي
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/June 24/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76096/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b5%d8%ad%d8%a7%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%b1%d9%83%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%83-%d8%a8%d9%83%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d9%83%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%aa/
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14442/istanbul-everything-is-coming-up-roses
The invincible Erdoğan took a great risk: a second loss for the man who thinks "who wins Istanbul wins Turkey" would mean just more than just an embarrassing mayoral loss. Comparatively speaking, the difference in votes between Imamoğlu and Erdoğan's candidate, Yıldırım, widened within less than two months from 13,000 to nearly 800,000.
""It appears that losing Istanbul entails too many risks for the AKP for the matter to be left to its own resources. Many are convinced that if the AKP were to lose Istanbul to the opposition, after having held it – with its precursor – for 25 years, a hornet's nest of vested interests, corruption, and abuse of power would be revealed" — Semih Idiz, a columnist for Sigma Turkey, an Ankara-based think tank.
The more the public feels the economic pressure, the more Erdoğan's popularity will sink.
Who would have guessed that a 13-year-old opposition youth's shout at Imamoğlu's election bus would become the slogan of hope for tens of millions of Turks: Ekrem! Everything is coming up roses..." Pictured: Crowds celebrating Ekrem Imamoğlu's second victory. (Photo by Getty Images)
An Islamist political party that comes to power by popular vote would never leave power by popular vote. That suggestion is overwhelmingly accurate. But not always. Any Turks younger than 18 have never seen an election defeat for President (and former Prime Minister) Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. On June 23, a little-known small district mayor won Istanbul for the first time since Islamists first won Istanbul's mayoralty in 1994 -- a good quarter of a century.
In fact, that was the second time Ekrem Imamoğlu was elected mayor of Istanbul in less than two months. Commenting in a May 27 article on the re-run of the Istanbul election, under the headline "Erdoğan's Istanbul Nightmare," this author wrote: "[S]ince his Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, [Erdoğan] has not lost a single election. Everything was coming up roses all the time. Not anymore. "'Who wins Istanbul wins Turkey,' has been Erdoğan's dictum since 1994, when he won mayoral elections in Turkey's biggest city (home to nearly 15% of Turkey's 57 million voters and accounting for 31% of its GDP)."In the tally of votes on March 31, Imamoğlu and his pro-Erdoğan rival, Binali Yıldırım, were in an unseen cutthroat rivalry: The opposition's Imamoğlu finished on top merely by a margin of 13,000 or so votes, in a city where there are more than 10 million registered voters.
Upon appeal from Erdogan's ruling AKP over alleged irregularities, the Supreme Electoral Board, consisting of judges apparently under government pressure, cancelled the election result for Istanbul, thereby suspending Imamoğlu's mandate. The Board also set the date for a re-run on June 23. The Board cancelled the election result on the pretext that some officials serving at the polling stations were not civil servants, as required by the law.)
The invincible Erdoğan took a great risk: a second loss for the man who thinks "who wins Istanbul wins Turkey" would mean just more than just an embarrassing mayoral loss. Comparatively speaking, the difference in votes between Imamoğlu and Erdoğan's candidate, Yıldırım, widened within less than two months from 13,000 to nearly 800,000.
The change in top management in Turkey's biggest city (16 million) could unleash a flood of embarrassing corruption dossiers.
"It appears that losing Istanbul entails too many risks for the AKP for the matter to be left to its own resources. Many are convinced that if the AKP were to lose Istanbul to the opposition, after having held it – with its precursor – for 25 years, a hornet's nest of vested interests, corruption, and abuse of power would be revealed," wrote Semih Idiz, a columnist for Sigma Turkey, an Ankara-based think tank. "Had he done the politically correct thing and accepted the defeat in Istanbul nobly he would have elevated his moral stature. As matters stand he and his party have been tainted and it is difficult to understand how they expect to reap any benefits from this".
How did Erdoğan's millions of fanatically devoted fans abandon him when he needed them most? True, most observers agree that Imamoğlu also benefited from portraying himself as the victim whose mandate was illegally revoked. But it is not a coincidence that the AKP's first ever single crash came at a time when the average Turk felt the economic crunch in its worst.
The Turkish economy has seen its worst performance in nearly a decade.
On May 7, only six weeks before the re-run, the Turkish lira slumped to its lowest level in seven months as further political unrest weighed on the nation's currency. Justin Low, an analyst at ForexLive, attributed the lira plunge to the electoral board's controversial decision. Meanwhile, Turkey's unemployment rate "surged to 14.7 percent in the December-February period, its highest level in nearly a decade... The Turkish economy contracted a sharper than expected 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, its worst performance in nearly a decade, indicating that last year's near 30 percent slide in the lira had tipped it into recession."
If historians one day write the story Turkish politics in the early 21st century, they will have to divide their work into pre- and post-June 23 election. The vulnerability of the Turkish economy, huge corporate debts at high interest rates and the sliding Turkish lira may all force the AKP into an early presidential election (now scheduled for 2023). The more the public feels the economic pressure, the more Erdoğan's popularity will sink.
Who would have guessed that a 13-year-old opposition youth's shout at Imamoğlu's election bus would become the slogan of hope for tens of millions of Turks: "Ekrem! Everything is coming up roses...""When I look at him," says Imamoğlu, "I see hope."
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Palestinians and the Bahrain Conference: Condemning Arabs While Asking for Arab Money
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/June 24/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14431/palestinians-money-bahrain-conference
The Palestinian strategy is clear: to incite the Arab masses against their leaders and governments. The Palestinian attacks are no longer directed against US President Donald Trump... Now the targets are the Arab heads of state, particularly those who are seen by Palestinians are being in collusion with Israel and the Trump administration.
As the Palestinians were condemning Arabs for agreeing to attend the conference in Bahrain, Palestinian leaders repeated their appeal to the Arab states for financial aid. On the one hand, the Palestinians are condemning Arab countries for attending a conference aimed at boosting the Palestinian economy and improving living conditions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. On the other hand, Palestinian leaders have no problem begging their Arab brothers for urgent financial aid.... The Palestinians are asking the Arabs to give them $100 million each month to help them "face political and financial pressure" from Israel and the US administration.
The Palestinians realize that some of the key Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, are no longer prepared to wait for them and have decided to board the train whose final destination is prosperity and economic opportunities for both Palestinians and Arabs.
The decision of six Arab states to attend the Bahrain conference despite the Palestinian boycott call shows that the Arabs have chosen to endorse a new direction – one that will leave the Palestinians to fend for themselves in a hell of their own making. For their choice to thumb their noses not only at the US but also at influential Arab states, the Palestinians are likely to emerge as the biggest losers.
In 2009, the late Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz announced his country's decision to donate $1 billion to the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. The king undoubtedly had good intentions and sought to help his Palestinian brothers. But when Abdullah died six years later, the Palestinians did not hesitate to show their contempt for the Arab leader who had offered to help improve their living conditions. Pictured: Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz in a meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, on September 6, 2009 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.(Photo by Thaer Ganaim/PPO via Getty Images)
In 2009, the late Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz announced his country's decision to donate $1 billion to contribute to the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.
The monarch made his announcement during an Arab economic conference in Kuwait. The Saudi pledge never materialized, mainly because of the continued dispute between the Hamas rulers of the Gaza Strip and Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank.
The king undoubtedly had good intentions and sought to help his Palestinian brothers, especially the two million residents of the Gaza Strip who remain in dire need of financial and economic assistance.
When King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz died six years later, the Palestinians did not hesitate to show their contempt for the Arab leader who had offered to help improve their living conditions and ensure a better future for Palestinian children.
The contempt was so intense that Palestinian worshippers at Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem booed down a preacher, Ismail Nawahdeh, who mourned the death of the Saudi king. As Nawahdeh read the statement, hundreds of Palestinians began shouting slogans denouncing the late monarch.
A decade has passed since King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz offered the $1 billion donation to the Gaza Strip, but it seems that nothing has changed in the world of the Palestinians. The Palestinians are now incensed with Saudi Arabia and some other Arab states for agreeing to attend a US-led conference in Bahrain. The main purpose of the conference, held under the banner "Peace to Prosperity," is to help the Palestinians build a prosperous and vibrant society. "With the potential to facilitate more than $50 billion in new investment over 10 years, the plan presents the most ambitious and comprehensive international effort for the Palestinian people to date," according to the plan, which was released on June 22 and will be presented to participants of the Bahrain economic conference.
As expected, the Palestinians, who are boycotting the Bahrain conference, have rejected the plan, dubbing it a "bribe" to entice the Palestinians to relinquish their "national rights." While the Palestinian rejection of the plan did not come as a surprise, their strong condemnations of the Arab states that have agreed to attend the Bahrain conference are an indication of the disdain in which the Palestinians hold Arab leaders and governments.
In the past week, Palestinian officials and factions were unanimous in making a last-minute appeal to the Arab states to heed the Palestinian call for boycotting the economic conference in Manama, Bahrain. The largest Palestinian faction, Fatah, headed by Mahmoud Abbas, said in several statements that anyone who attends the conference would be considered a traitor. Fatah also went a step further by urging Arabs to stage demonstrations in front of Bahrain's embassies in their capitals.
The Palestinian strategy is clear: to incite the Arab masses against their leaders and governments. The Palestinian attacks are no longer directed against US President Donald Trump and his "Zionist" advisers, Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt and US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman. Now the targets are the Arab heads of state, particularly those who are seen by Palestinians are being in collusion with Israel and the Trump administration.
The late Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz, despite his desire and ambition to help the Palestinians have better lives, was ridiculed after his death. The Palestinian refusal to mourn him during Muslim prayer at Al-Aqsa Mosque is the most degrading act a Muslim can perform against a fellow Muslim.
It is as if the Palestinians were saying that King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz was a bad Muslim and a traitor -- and, as such, he did not deserve to be honored in a mosque. Such disgrace is generally reserved for Muslims who commit the most serious sins and crimes.
As the Palestinians were condemning Arabs for agreeing to attend the conference in Bahrain, Palestinian leaders repeated their appeal to the Arab states for financial aid. On the one hand, the Palestinians are condemning Arab countries for attending a conference aimed at boosting the Palestinian economy and improving living conditions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. On the other hand, Palestinian leaders have no problem begging their Arab brothers for urgent financial aid.
The Arabs, however, seem to have become familiar with Palestinian tactics and, other than lip service, they are not poised to part with their money in the near future in favor of the Palestinians.
On June 23, Arab foreign ministers were scheduled to meet in Cairo to discuss the Palestinian appeal for a "financial security net" from the Arab states, on the pretext that Abbas and his government are facing a severe financial crisis and are unable to pay full salaries to their employees. This is not the first time that most of the Arab states meet to discuss the "financial crisis" facing the Palestinians.
The Palestinians, for their part, are not pinning high hopes on the Arabs, particularly in light of the Arabs' failure to fulfill previous promises of financial aid. The Palestinians are asking the Arabs to give them $100 million each month to help them "face political and financial pressure" from Israel and the US administration.
In the coming days, the Palestinians are expected to step up their attacks and denunciations of the Arab states for being in collusion with Israel and the Trump administration. Mass protests planned in the West Bank and Gaza Strip during the meeting of the conference in Bahrain will also see Palestinians strongly condemning Arab "traitors" who attended the economic workshop.
The Palestinians realize that some of the key Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, are no longer prepared to wait for them and have decided to board the train whose final destination is prosperity and economic opportunities for both Palestinians and Arabs.
The Bahrain conference could mark the beginning of a "divorce" between the Palestinians and many Arab countries. The Palestinians may soon discover that their Arab brothers have priorities that supersede the Palestinians' everlasting financial self-immolation, priorities such as the Iran threat and their own new economic uncertainty. The Palestinians had nothing to lose by attending the Bahrain conference or accepting the economic plan. Instead, they chose to reject the billions of dollars the US economic plan is offering them and incite their people against Israel and the Trump administration. Even more serious is the Palestinian effort to incite Arab masses against their leaders – a step that is sure to aggravate tensions between the Palestinians and the Arab world.
In a scenario that is best characterized as bizarre, the Palestinians' denunciation of Arab heads of state as traitors comes at the very moment that they are banging down their doors, begging for cash.
This time, however, the Arab leaders are refusing to be the Palestinians' suckers. The image of the Palestinians' posthumous humiliation of the late Saudi king is difficult to forget.
The decision of six Arab states to attend the Bahrain conference despite the Palestinian boycott call shows that the Arabs have chosen to endorse a new direction – one that will leave the Palestinians to fend for themselves in a hell of their own making. For their choice to thumb their noses not only at the US but also at influential Arab states, the Palestinians are likely to emerge as the biggest losers.
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Iran would be mistaken to think US threat is over
Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/June 24/2019
After President Donald Trump last week called off airstrikes on Iran while the mission was en route to attack, some thought it was the end of any military threat against Iran. They drew parallels with former President Barack Obama’s red lines in Syria, which Bashar Assad crossed repeatedly and Obama ignored the transgressions. So here, they concluded, Trump threatened several times to punish Iran severely if it dared to harass US forces in the Gulf. And then he didn’t.
To be in Washington this past week was akin to being on a wild rollercoaster. Even before the US drone was downed last Thursday, speculation was rife that the US would surely respond to Iran’s provocations over the past two months on international shipping and increased Houthi missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia. When Iran downed one of America’s best and largest drones, many believed that a severely punishing attack was certain.
Discussions with officials in Washington revealed to me bits of the wide-ranging debate on the most effective actions to respond to Iran’s provocations. This debate is part of a larger discussion on how to best implement the administration’s Iran strategy.
There appears to be clear consensus between the US administration and leaders of both political parties to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to stop its support for terrorist groups and other destabilizing activities in the region. This position enjoys wide popular support and is shared by think tanks and opinion-makers. This has been a consistent US policy since the start of Iran’s revolutionary government in 1979 and its open animosity toward the US.
The US goal has been to steer Iran toward conducting itself as a normal state, living within its borders, and ending its ambition to become the regional hegemon. The US has sought to achieve this goal through economic, diplomatic, political, legal and military pressure, and has called on Iran to negotiate over all issues, not only the nuclear file.
Although this goal has been constant since 1979, views differ within the current administration about the best tools and timetable for achieving it.
Eventually, perhaps, it was the domestic political factor that made Trump decide to call off the military retaliation.
An important faction within the administration advocates a decisive and quick military response against every aggressive act by Iran. Otherwise, they argue, American deterrence will be blunted if it remains theoretical. Prompt military reactions would disabuse Tehran of the notion that it can gain advantage by threatening international shipping and attacking its neighbors. The deterrence would, in turn, persuade Iran to return to the negotiating table.
Although American officials may not openly admit it, the political cycle plays an important role. The president and Republican leaders need to stop Iran’s embarrassing provocations before the 2020 presidential and congressional elections, lest their political opponents accuse them of caving (the wimp factor).
In the hours following the downing of the US drone, the hard-line faction had the upper hand and swift retaliation against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was certain. This conclusion was supported by Trump’s frequent verbal attacks on Iran and the previous administration’s soft approach.
In the end, the US response was muted and there was no military reaction against the clear Iranian provocation, indicating that the majority in Washington supported a more nuanced approach.
As I found out, this majority faction in Washington is no less hostile toward Iran than the hawks, as they also see Tehran’s threat as existential to US influence in the region. But they believe that the US should stick to a long-term strategy without being baited into unplanned actions that divert attention from the long-term objective. By looking at Iran’s worsening economic indicators, its export earnings and government revenues, they believe that the “maximum pressure” policy is working. It has also put the squeeze on IRGC finances and its ability to fund mischief in the region. The IRGC’s recent attacks indicate the success of US pressure; it uses the threat of war to persuade America to reduce its pressure.
The designation in April of the IRGC as a terrorist entity was another important factor in the US strategy. That designation and the concomitant sanctions have pushed it to confront the US directly. The IRGC has openly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and stop oil exports by other countries in the region. Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, the IRGC’s new commander-in-chief, boasted that the downing of the US drone was a “clear and decisive message” to America, indicating that the action was intentional at the same time as Trump was presenting the possibility that it was an accident.
Eventually, perhaps, it was the domestic political factor that made Trump decide to call off the military retaliation. Any military action is risky and a failure could be fatal to the Republicans’ election campaign. In another generation, President Jimmy Carter lost the 1980 election in part because of the failure of his military intervention to rescue American hostages in Iran.
Despite these complications, I concluded from discussions in Washington that Iran would be mistaken to think that Trump will not retaliate in the future. The bigger mistake is to think that there is much daylight between the White House and the rest of the American establishment when it comes to confronting Iran’s nuclear program and its attempts to dominate the region through support of terrorism. There is a consensus on exercising maximum pressure on the Iranian government, short of an all-out war, to change its behavior.
There is also a similar global consensus to bring Iran to the negotiating table and change its behavior, to make it live like a normal state within its own national borders according to the UN Charter and international law.
If the pressure does not achieve its objectives, the US administration will surely be able to persuade its citizens and allies to adopt tougher means to meet IRGC provocations.
*Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs & Negotiation, and a columnist for Arab News. The views expressed in this piece are personal and do not necessarily represent GCC views. Twitter: @abuhamad1
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

Gulf tensions, trade wars loom large over key meetings
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/June 24/2019
Energy stocks were the best performers on global markets last week. On the back of increased tensions in the Arabian Gulf, oil was up around 7.7 percent between Monday and its highest point on Friday. It opened at 64.90 for Brent in early European trading.
Events overtook themselves last week. After markets only reacted temporarily to the attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman two weeks ago, tensions markedly ratcheted up when the Iranians shot down a US drone. Retaliatory US airstrikes on several Iranian targets were aborted at the last minute. US President Donald Trump has announced that further economic sanctions on Iran will be forthcoming. He also said he was open to talks with Tehran without preconditions but would react to provocations.
The US has vowed to do whatever it takes to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is visiting Saudi Arabia and the UAE to discuss the situation and explore building an alliance. US special representative on Iran Brian Hook told CNBC that the US would be looking for contributions when prodded about the fact that US efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open primarily benefited tankers taking crude to Asian off-takers. During the interview, Hook also said that the administration kept an eye on the oil price when determining how to deal with Iran. Pompeo had made similar assertions earlier.
Apart from tensions in the Gulf, we are a week away from the next OPEC/OPEC+ meetings in Vienna and less than a week away from the G20 summit in Osaka. Both events will have a significant impact on the trajectory of the oil price over the coming months.
If trade wars still loom large, the bearish supply-demand picture will have the biggest influence on OPEC decision-makers.
The G20 matters because the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump may decide whether or not a resolution to the trade tensions between the two countries is in sight. It will also give an indication on how the US will eventually move on other trade fronts, namely Mexico, Europe and India, which all have their own set of issues. The global economic outlook and especially trade have a huge impact on the oil price. Less trade and a localization of supply chains equal less demand for the world’s premier transportation fuel. Unless a resolution of at least some of the trade issues is on the horizon, the global economic outlook will be dimmed.
Trade wars have already forced the World Bank Group to downgrade its global economic growth forecast from 3.9 percent in January 2018 to 2.6 percent in June of this year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) followed suit and downgraded its forecast of oil demand for this year by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.2 million. This was the second downgrade in as many months. When it comes to the supply-demand balance, the IEA had a bearish forecast for next year. Non-OPEC supply was to increase by 2.3 million bpd, which would roughly double the current production cuts of OPEC and its 10 non-OPEC allies commonly referred to as OPEC+. The call on OPEC crude will be 600,000 below its current production. The organization could boast 169 percent compliance of its production cuts due to Iran sanctions, Venezuelan production falling off a cliff and quality issues regarding Russia’s Druzhba pipeline.
This brings us to next week’s OPEC+ meetings in Vienna. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said last week in Russia that he was confident the production cuts would be rolled over. The impending non-OPEC supply glut and the falling oil price for most of May and June have so far kept Russia on side with a rollover. Many observers even question whether 1.2 million barrels is a deep enough cut.
A lot will depend on how the tensions in the Gulf evolve over the coming week. The higher the oil price, the bigger the temptation for Russia to steer away from the production cuts once the Druzhba issues are resolved. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak is under pressure from several oil producers in Russia who have new capacity and want to see more Russian crude on the international markets.
The G20 may give some visibility on what we can expect in terms of demand. If trade wars still loom large, the bearish supply-demand picture will have the biggest influence on OPEC decision-makers, as long as the Strait of Hormuz is kept open. The smart money is therefore still on a rollover of the production cuts. If there are more issues in and around the Strait of Hormuz, all bets are off, as one in five barrels has to pass this narrow sea lane to reach global markets.
**Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources

Trump, Netanyahu and the Iran flipflop
ناحوم بارنيا/يدعوت احرونوت: ترامب ونيتنياهو وإيران والتأرجح والتغيرات
Nahum Barnea/Ynetnews/June 25/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/76110/%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%ad%d9%88%d9%85-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%a7-%d9%8a%d8%af%d8%b9%d9%88%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%86%d9%88%d8%aa-%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%85%d8%a8-%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%aa/
Opinion: Israeli leaders have long enjoyed elevated status at the White House, but while the U.S. president basks in the acclaim he received for jettisoning the airstrike on Iranian targets at the last minute, one must consider who led him to that point, and why.
Three weeks ago, I met up with a few friends in Washington, all of whom are experts in American and international politics.
Each analyzed the virtues and weaknesses of our respective leaders - they with Donald Trump, I with Benjamin Netanyahu.But my leader, I insisted, is far more intelligent than yours. For a moment there was silence around the table.
"That's right," said one of my companions. "And that's what makes yours far more dangerous."
I recalled that conversation over the weekend, as the Iranians, deliberately and with knowing provocation shot down a $130 million American UAV and as Trump vowed in response, to the cameras, that there would be painful military action.
"You'll find out," the president said regarding how the U.S. would respond.
After tense discussions in the White House and the Pentagon, Trump authorized the bombing of several minor military targets in Iran; the planes took off, but then Trump talked to Tucker Carlson, a talk show host on Fox News.
Tucker, an outstanding contestant on "Dancing with the Stars," warned Trump that if the attack was carried out, his chances of winning the next elections would be forever lost; Trump backtracked and cancelled the operation with 10 minutes to spare; Tucker praised Trump; the American left praised Tucker and Trump, both of whom they despise; the right was left squirming.
A Trump confidant told the media that despite the criticism, the president was happy, for the opportunity to play at war had filled him with pleasure; the dramatic cancellation of the operation at the last moment filled him with satisfaction. I've been overwhelmed by positive responses, claimed Trump.
Military operations are made to be cancelled – both during war and during the wars between wars. Israel faces this possibility regularly - IDF troops, Shin Bet agents and Mossad officials are dispatched, and then when the planes are in the air or the fighters in position on the ground, the prime minister decides to call everyone home. This is his right. The cause can be operational or political or even a gut feeling. That's what the prime minister is for.
But Trump swims in other seas. Operational considerations are foreign to him. He relies solely on gut feelings, sometimes his own, sometimes those of his good friends at Fox News. But it is not enough.
Beyond that, he is trapped in a contradiction that is very difficult to reconcile. On the one hand, he is an isolationist. "America First," is what he promised his base.
He tells them that America's involvement in foreign wars is costly and unnecessary. Our boys must come home, he says, we will not be the world's policeman anymore.
On the other hand, he promises them that he will defeat any enemy, humiliate any foe. Obama diminished America, he says. He will restore its glory anew.
The result is a flight from military and political decision-making, accompanied by inflammatory rhetoric. Teddy Roosevelt, one of the greatest American presidents, recommended foreign policy based on the premise of "speak softly and carry a big stick."
Trump operates in an opposite manner. He loudly threatens enemies and allies alike, but then changes course. This does not create deterrence. At every opportunity, he attacks Obama's foreign policy, but in reality is following his predecessor down the same path.
Obama set a red line for Bashar Assad in Syria, then went back on it, which led to disaster. Trump did the same thing with North Korea, and is now doing it with Iran too.
This brings us to Netanyahu and his part in the flipflop on Iran. Some Israeli prime ministers have enjoyed tremendous influence in the White House. Take Yitzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres and Ehud Barak and their standing with Bill Clinton, or Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert and their status with George W. Bush.
Netanyahu went further: he swayed Trump's actions in the Middle East to his personal interests, from his electoral considerations to which Israeli journalists were granted permission to cover the Bahrain conference that begins Tuesday.
Netanyahu pushed Trump to quit the nuclear agreement with Iran. Trump responded enthusiastically. The next step, an apparently necessary one, was to tighten sanctions. Trump's assumption was that the ayatollahs would panic and surrender. Such arrogance, such ignorance.
What was Netanyahu's game? We don't know. Obama was convinced at the time that Netanyahu was trying to entangle him in a military confrontation with Iran. One cannot rule out the possibility that this was also the plan for Trump.
It is no wonder that quite a few people in American politics are convinced that the responsibility for Trump's flipflop falls on Netanyahu. He is far more intelligent, and far more dangerous.