LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 18/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
For God did not call us to impurity but in
holiness. Therefore whoever rejects this rejects not human authority but God,
who also gives his Holy Spirit to you.
First Letter to the Thessalonians 04/01-12:”Finally, brothers and sisters, we
ask and urge you in the Lord Jesus that, as you learned from us how you ought to
live and to please God (as, in fact, you are doing), you should do so more and
more. For you know what instructions we gave you through the Lord Jesus. For
this is the will of God, your sanctification: that you abstain from fornication;
that each one of you knows how to control your own body in holiness and honour,
not with lustful passion, like the Gentiles who do not know God; that no one
wrongs or exploits a brother or sister in this matter, because the Lord is an
avenger in all these things, just as we have already told you beforehand and
solemnly warned you. For God did not call us to impurity but in holiness.
Therefore whoever rejects this rejects not human authority but God, who also
gives his Holy Spirit to you. Now concerning love of the brothers and sisters,
you do not need to have anyone write to you, for you yourselves have been taught
by God to love one another; and indeed you do love all the brothers and sisters
throughout Macedonia. But we urge you, beloved, to do so more and more, to
aspire to live quietly, to mind your own affairs, and to work with your hands,
as we directed you, so that you may behave properly towards outsiders and be
dependent on no one.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese
& Lebanese Related News published on June 17-18/2019
Aoun Says Lebanon Ready to Grant Citizenship for Lebanese Descendents
Army Chief to Visit SA at Invitation of His Counterpart
Hariri, Bassil Meet for 5 Hours, Agree to Activate Govt. Work
ISF Arrests IS Suspects over Plots to Bomb Places of Worship
Finance Committee Suspends 2% Tax on Imported Items
Judges Announce ‘Temporary’ Suspension of Strike
Zakka Hails 'Strong Lebanese State' after Meeting Bassil
Al-Hassan: Cabinet is Right Place to Address Refugee Crisis
Ghosn's wife urges Trump to help her husband
Bukhari hosts Saudi delegation participating in 'First LEGO League Open
International Championship'
Statement by AUB Faculty at large: We call for immediate and transparent
investigation into assault on Roland Nassour
Why The Financing Of The Bisri Dam Should Be Cancelled
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on June 17-18/2019
Egypt’s former president Mohammed Mursi dies after collapsing in court
US military releases new images of Iranian forces removing mine from attacked
tanker
White House: Iran ‘nuclear blackmail’ must be met with international pressure
Iran says it is responsible for Gulf security, calls on US forces to leave
Iran says if it decides to block Strait of Hormuz, it will do it ‘publicly’
Rouhani: Time is short for Europe to save nuclear deal
Iranian nuclear official: Iran will surpass low-enriched uranium level in June
Iran government advisor warns of ‘unavoidable war’ if sanctions not ‘abandoned’
US to send 1,000 additional troops to the Middle East
Germany, UK warn Iran over uranium plans as EU urges caution
U.N. Chief Tells Iran to Keep Implementing Nuclear Deal
Saudi Energy Minister calls for collective global effort to secure shipping
lanes
Iran faces backlash over ‘nuclear blackmail’
Report: Mortars land on Iraqi military base near Baghdad
White House will not invite Israeli officials to Bahrain event: US official
Sudan protesters urge return to night-time rallies over ‘massacre’
Arab League chief warns no Middle East peace deal without Palestinians
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on June 17-18/2019
Statement by AUB Faculty at large: We call for immediate and transparent
investigation into assault on Roland Nassour/NNA/Mon 17 Jun 201
Why The Financing Of The Bisri Dam Should Be Cancelled/Elie Aoun/June 17/2019
White House will not invite Israeli officials to Bahrain event: US
official/Reuters/Monday, 17 June 2019
The Palestinian Leaders' War on Preventing Corruption/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone
Institute/June 17/2019
China: "Protecting" the Arctic/Debalina Ghoshal/Gatestone Institute/June 17/2019
Oil trades sideways as Gulf tensions take a toll on markets/Cornelia Meyer/Arab
News/June 17/2019
Designate IRGC, Houthis to increase pressure on Iran/Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab
News/June 17/2019
Tunisian elections could be a make or break moment/Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/June
17/2019
Tory members must choose next leader wisely/Chris Doyle/Arab News/June 17/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News published on June 17-18/2019
Aoun Says Lebanon Ready to Grant Citizenship for Lebanese Descendents
Naharnet/June 17/2019
President Michel Aoun on Monday said that Lebanon is ready to grant citizenship
for the Lebanese descendants wishing to obtain it, the National News agency
reported. "Lebanon needs the support of its sons abroad to be able to withstand
challenges at different levels," NNA quoted Aoun as saying. Lebanon “is adamant
about moving forward in preserving security and stability," he added. Aoun made
his remarks during a meeting at Baabda palace with a delegation of the National
Federation of Syrian Lebanese American Clubs. Separately, Aoun received
Ministers Akram Shehayeb (Education) and Wael Abu Faour (Industry), who conveyed
a message from Progressive Socialist Party leader, Walid Jumblat, on the current
political developments. The President later met with French Ambassador to
Lebanon, Bruno Foucher, where talks focused on bilateral relations and
cooperation.
Army Chief to Visit SA at Invitation of His Counterpart
Naharnet/June 17/2019
Army chief General Joseph Aoun is scheduled to fly to Saudi Arabia in the next
few days at the invitation of his Saudi counterpart, military Chief of Staff
Gen. Fayyad bin Hamed Al-Ruwaili, “to discuss means of cooperation between the
two armies,” al-Joumhouria daily reported on Monday. Aoun will hold several
other meetings that fall in the framework of support for the Lebanese army,
“particularly due to the similarity in weapons and arms used by Saudi and
Lebanese armies,” said the daily.
The army chief’s trip to the Saudi kingdom is his third to an Arab state after
visiting Kuwait and Jordan, whose armies use the same type of weapons. Armies of
Lebanon and Saudi Arabia exchange academic military expertise, added the
newspaper.
Hariri, Bassil Meet for 5 Hours, Agree to Activate Govt.
Work
Naharnet/June 17/2019
Free Patriotic Movement chief and Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil met Monday at
the Grand Serail with Prime Minister Saad Hariri following tensions between them
and between their two parties. A statement issued by Hariri's office said the
lengthy meeting was dedicated to “evaluating the previous stage, in light of the
exchanges and stances that affected political stability.”“The meeting was a
occasion for a frank and responsible dialogue that tackled the various aspects
of the relation and the points of disagreement,” the statement said. “It was an
opportunity to stress that the national interest should come before any other
considerations,” the statement added. Hariri and Bassil also agreed to “activate
governmental work, create the appropriate atmosphere to finalize the state
budget and pave the way for implementing the government's investment program and
economic plan.”The two men also tackled the issues of “waste management,
refugees, the internally displaced, administrative appointments and the fight
against corruption.”Hariri and Bassil finally concluded that the political
settlement that resulted in the election of President Michel Aoun and the
appointment of Hariri as premier “will continue to be strong and
effective.”Bassil had told reporters ahead of the talks that “the meeting with
PM Hariri is normal and regular and someone tried to stir a problem without
succeeding,”“The meeting is prearranged,” he added.Sources informed about the
meeting told the FPM-affiliated OTV that the talks were "normal and excellent."
ISF Arrests IS Suspects over Plots to Bomb Places of Worship
Naharnet/June 17/2019
The Internal Security Forces said in a statement on Monday that its agents
arrested two Syrian suspects for having links to the Islamic State terror group
and for planning bomb attacks at religious places. “As part of preventive
security operations carried out by the ISF Information Division in monitoring
the activities of terrorist cells, especially those associated with the IS
terrorist group, the Division has been able to monitor and identify a resident
of south Lebanon who spreads the ideology of the organization on social media
and recruits people for its benefit,” said the statement. The suspect was
identified as Z.M. a Syrian living in the Lebanese southern town of Yater, said
the statement. He confessed during investigation to having links to the IS and
to having promoted its ideology through a number of online channels and
applications. He said he had links to individuals outside Lebanon who assisted
him in the creation of social networking sites promoting the ideology of the
organization. After a video released of IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi praising
the bomb attacks in Sri Lanka, the suspect said he got a spray can and
clandestinely at night sprayed slogans on a wall at the entrance of Yater that
said “Grandson of Abu Bakr Baghdadi,” and “Islmaic State” at the bottom.With his
partners, he discussed the idea of simulating the Sri Lankan attacks in
Lebanon and targeting churches, hussainia in shiite towns and villages in south
Lebanon including attacks at churches and killing the largest number of
worshippers, said the statement.He said he accessed websites of jihadis and
downloaded links that filmed tutorials of how to make improvised bombs for
reference. He had contacts with another Syrian national identified as S.B.
(arrested by ISF) whom he recruited for the purpose. The two men were referred
to the judiciary.
Finance Committee Suspends 2% Tax on Imported Items
Naharnet/June 17/2019
The finance parliamentary committee on Monday suspended a draft state budget
article pertaining to imposing a 2% tax on imported items. “Article 63 has been
suspended pending a new text that takes into consideration the suggestions of
the MPs and the finance minister on excluding daily-use consumer goods,”
committee head MP Ibrahim Kanaan said. Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil
reminded in remarks to MTV that that the tax is aimed at “lowering deficit and
protecting national products.”Hizbullah, the AMAL Movement and the Marada
Movement had voiced reservations over the article when it was discussed in
Cabinet.
Judges Announce ‘Temporary’ Suspension of Strike
Naharnet/June 17/2019
The judicial community announced on Monday a temporary suspension of a strike
they began a month ago over government plans to cut their financial benefits as
part of an austere state budget draft. The judges held a meeting Monday at the
Justice Palace in Beirut and announced the decision. In May, the judges declared
an open strike in response to an austere state budget draft which calls for
deductions from their financial benefits, and health and educational
contributions. They described any possible measure to decrease their allowances
as an “attack on their rights.”The budget proposes 10 percent annual cuts of the
treasury's contribution to the judges pension fund, and deducting part of the
medical aid, medicinal proceeds and educational contribution, benefiting 560
judges and about 1,200 judicial assistants. The budget is being discussed by the
Finance and Budget parliamentary committee which has introduced some changes to
the draft after it was approved by the government. The committee will later
refer it to the parliament for final approval.
Zakka Hails 'Strong Lebanese State' after Meeting Bassil
Naharnet/June 17/2019
Lebanese national and U.S. green card holder Nizar Zakka, who has been recently
freed from Iranian prisons, on Monday lauded the Lebanese state for securing his
release. “The credit goes to the Lebanese state, which has proven that it is
truly strong and that it preserves the right of every Lebanese,” Zakka said
after meeting Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil in Ashrafieh. He also wished for
“every aggrieved Lebanese” to “return to his country, regardless of his sect.”
“Lebanon is for all its sons without discrimination,” Zakka added. Noting that
he put Bassil in the picture of his detention ordeal, Zakka reiterated his
"gratitude" for President Michel Aoun, Prime Minister Saad Hariri, General
Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim and the Lebanese embassy in Iran for the
efforts they exerted to secure his release. Asked whether he will settle in
Lebanon, the freed detainee said: “What's important is that I overcome my fear
of traveling in a plane.” And as he did not rule out the possibility of writing
a book about his detention ordeal, Zakka said that he is proud of his Lebanese
nationality, declining to say whether he had rejected being granted the American
citizenship while in prison. Zakka, an information technology expert, was
arrested in Iran in September 2015 while trying to fly out of Tehran. He had
just attended a conference there at the invitation of one of the country's vice
presidents. The following year, he was sentenced to 10 years in prison in a
closed-door trial after authorities accused him of being an American spy —
allegations he and his associates vigorously reject. He was released Tuesday and
flew back to his native Lebanon, amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and
Iran.
Al-Hassan: Cabinet is Right Place to Address Refugee Crisis
Naharnet/June 17/2019
Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan on Sunday stressed that “the Cabinet is the
right place and competent authority to deal with the Syrian refugee crisis,” in
an apparent response to Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil’s remarks at Saturday’s
municipal conference. In a statement released by her press office, Hassan said
the Cabinet can “devise an integrated strategy that takes into consideration the
decisions already taken by the Higher Defense Council, especially in terms of
specifying the municipalities’ role in addressing this crisis.” The statement
also noted that there is “national consensus” on “the need to shut down illegal
shops and showing no leniency towards Syrians practicing any profession on
Lebanese soil before obtaining the necessary permits.”“But it is unacceptable to
deal with this issue with a partisan and populist agenda and for partisan and
personal objectives,” al-Hassan added. She also stressed that the Interior
Ministry is the ministry in charge of regulating the work of municipalities and
preserving public order. Bassil had announced during a municipal conference on
Saturday that municipalities “have jurisdiction to bar the work of Syrians in
sectors other than agriculture, cleaning and construction,” urging them to also
prohibit “residential overcrowding.”
Ghosn's wife urges Trump to help her husband
NNA/Mon 17 Jun 2019
The wife of former Nissan Motor chairman Carlos Ghosn urged U.S. President
Donald Trump to raise her husband's case with Japan's prime minister at a summit
of world leaders later this month. "I'd like President Trump to speak to Prime
Minister Abe about fair conditions, fair trial conditions and to let me speak to
my husband and also to respect this presumption of innocence until proven
guilty," Beirut-born Carole Ghosn, who has a U.S. passport, told the BBC. Shinzo
Abe is due to host other leaders of the Group of 20 economies in the Japanese
city of Osaka on June 28-29.
Carole Ghosn said she had not spoken to her husband since he was re-arrested on
April 4 before being released on bail three weeks later. "They told him one of
the bail conditions, the restrictions, is he isn't allowed to speak to me or
talk to me, which I find inhumane," she said.
"All of this could have been dealt with internally within the company. This
didn't need to go this far and on top of it my husband is innocent and time will
prove the truth."--Reuters
Bukhari hosts Saudi delegation participating in 'First LEGO League Open
International Championship'
NNA/Mon 17 Jun 2019
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid Bukhari, on Sunday evening hosted at the
Embassy the Saudi delegation which partook in the "First LEGO League Open
International Championship" which was held under the patronage of Prime Minister
Saad Hariri at the Lebanese American University (LAU). Around 47 countries from
across the globe partook in the aforementioned championship. The honorary
ceremony was attended by the Director General of the Ministry of Education in
the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Dr. Raafat Jumbi, and Saudi delegation members.
Statement by AUB Faculty at large: We call for immediate and transparent
investigation into assault on Roland Nassour
NNA/Mon 17 Jun 2019
In a statement issued by the American University of Beirut Faculty at large, it
said: "On Sunday June 9th, AUB graduate student Roland Nassour was assaulted
during a tour he organizes weekly to raise awareness about the archeological
sites against the Bisri dam project. As faculty members, students, and staff at
the American University of Beirut, we stand in strong solidarity with our
friend, colleague and student. We call on the Lebanese authorities to take
immediate measures to investigate and hold his assailants accountable, extending
protection for all those who continue to make the commendable choice of acting
as involved and engaged citizens. Roland is the coordinator of the "Save the
Bisri Valley" campaign, a group of activists composed of professionals and
active citizens opposing the construction of the World Bank funded Bisri dam
project underway in southern Lebanon, arguing it imposes considerable
ecological, cultural and social costs on the country. At the time of the
Sunday attack, Roland was guiding a group of citizens in the Bisri valley on a
tour of the site's historical and archeological heritage. He was suddenly
charged and violently assaulted. Roland had to be rushed to the hospital covered
in blood and will now have to endure serious physical and mental damage from
this attack. This attack is one of a series of incidents in which intimidation
and threats were made against AUB students and faculty members in reaction to
their opposition to the construction of the dam. This incident is part of a
wider context in which activists are continuing to undergo intimidation and
personal threats for peacefully expressing their positions.
As faculty members, students and staff at AUB, we firmly stand by the right of
all individuals, especially our students, to freedom of expression and freedom
of assembly as enshrined in Article 13 of the Lebanese Constitution. We proudly
wish to continue a history of 150 years of empowering active citizens, pioneers,
and leaders in numerous fields. We encourage and seek protection for all
individuals who peacefully struggle to stand up for what they believe in. We
refuse to be intimidated and to have our students intimidated for choosing to
perform their duties as conscientious citizens. We strongly condemn the attack
on Roland and stand firmly behind him. Violence in the face of expressing one's
view is a form of tyranny and repression. In light of our commitments above, we
call for an immediate and transparent investigation into the assault on our
student and colleague on Sunday June 9th. We believe it is absolutely crucial to
hold all those who deliberately attacked Roland accountable for this crime. We
demand that the Minister of Interior and Municipalities, HE Rayya El Hassan,
launch an immediate investigation of this and other events of intimidation and
violence taking place against activists expressing their beliefs on national
policies and projects that they deem harmful. It is these active citizens that
may help Lebanon overcome its disastrous environmental and ecological situation.
We ask that you join us in your thoughts and prayers as we wish Roland a speedy
recovery. We will also update the public with proceedings about the anticipated
investigation into this incident."
Why The Financing Of The Bisri Dam Should Be Cancelled
ايلي عون: لماذا تمويل سد بسري يجب أن يلغى
Elie Aoun/June 17/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/75889/%d8%a7%d9%8a%d9%84%d9%8a-%d8%b9%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%84%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b0%d8%a7-%d8%aa%d9%85%d9%88%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%b3%d8%af-%d8%a8%d8%b3%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%8a%d8%ac%d8%a8-%d8%a3%d9%86-%d9%8a%d9%84%d8%ba/
The harm from the World Bank’s financing of the Bisri Dam project are many fold.
Firstly, there is vagueness and corruption in the financing. Secondly, the
declared objective of the project could be achieved by pursuing more logical
options.
THE LOAN AGREEMENT
If one looks at the “Loan Agreement” signed with the World Bank by Lebanon’s
Minister of Finance, there is no clarity as to the lien, security, or collateral
for the $474 Million – or the interest on that loan. How can a Finance Minister
sign a loan agreement that lacks clarity on these terms?
Although the World Bank does not seek security for loans from its member
countries, there are situations where a member country is required to place a
lien on public assets to the benefit of the World Bank – as described in Section
6.02 titled “Negative Pledge” of the “General Conditions for IBRD Financing:
Investment Project Financing.”
It is the responsibility of both parties to the contract to outline clear
unambiguous terms and to provide specificity on whether there are liens on
Lebanese public assets, and if yes, which assets. Section 6.02 and Paragraph 2
of the “Supplemental Letter” dated January 21, 2015 are vague and do not offer a
clear answer – a measure which does not reflect good faith in the transaction.
CORRUPTION
There are three primary Lebanese entities involved in the World Bank Bisri Dam
project:
·The Minister of Finance (a member of the Amal Movement) – signer of the “Loan
Agreement”
·The Minister of Energy and Water (a member of the Free Patriotic Movement)
·Council for Development and Reconstruction (CDR) – signer of the “Project
Agreement”
Both the “Loan Agreement” and the “Project Agreement” do NOT specify which law
apply to the Agreements, which court has jurisdiction, or how to resolve
disputes related to the Agreements.
Furthermore, in an attached Schedule, both Agreements include an
“Anti-Corruption” clause which states that the signers have to ensure that the
project is carried out in accordance with the provisions of the Anti-Corruption
Guidelines. However, no genuine “study” has been allocated to verify the
adherence to the Anti-Corruption Guidelines prior to the approval of the
financing.
As a matter of fact, if one looks at the personal financial history of the
leader of the Amal Movement and the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement
(before and after their political career), it would be clear that they could not
have been transformed from paupers to ultra-rich and amassed their personal
wealth if it was not for corruption practices.
If the Finance Minister believes that the Bisri Dam is a necessity, the leader
of his political party is able to build the dam single-handedly without any need
of financing from the World Bank or any other bank.
Over the years, tens of billions of dollars had been spent on the electricity
infrastructure (an amount of money that could have probably provided electricity
for the entire Arab World) and yet Lebanon still does not have an adequate
electrical power system. Can anyone provide a reason other than corruption?
Lebanon is the 138 least corrupt nation out of 175 countries, according to the
2018 Corruption Perceptions Index. Will anyone honestly believe that Lebanon’s
Finance Ministry and the CDR will themselves “ensure that the project is carried
out in accordance with the provisions of the Anti-Corruption Guidelines” – as
the contracts require? In a country ranked as the 138 least corrupt nation out
of 175 countries, can anyone point out one politician being investigated for
corruption practices?
Furthermore, what is the legal authority of the CDR to enter into a “Project
Agreement” with the World Bank for $474 Million Dollars? What specific provision
of a Lebanese law that authorizes CDR to enter into such an agreement?
THE DECLARED OBJECTIVE
The declared objective of the Bisri Dam is to increase the volume of water
available to the Greater Beirut and Mount Lebanon area.
Firstly, how many projects had been financed so far for that same purpose, and
what is their status?
Secondly, is the Bisri Dam the only method to achieve that objective?
On page 3 of its “Implementation Status & Results Report” dated May 16, 2019,
none of the systematic operations risk-rating tool is classified as low. All
risk ratings were high (political and governance; technical design of project;
environmental and social), substantial (macroeconomic; fiduciary), and moderate
(sector strategies and policies; institutional capacity for implementation and
sustainability).
In World Bank report no. ISDSC5500, it is stated: “despite investments in
infrastructure, the Government of Lebanon has not been able to deliver to date
on its national goal of improved water service and sustainable and integrated
water resources management.” Has there been an honest analysis as to the reasons
why? If an honest analysis exists, it would be clear that there are logical
options to achieve the stated objective better than building the Bisri Dam.
http://projects.worldbank.org/P125184/?lang=en&tab=documents&subTab=projectDocuments
http://projects.albankaldawli.org/P125184/?lang=ar&tab=documents&subTab=projectDocuments
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on June 17-18/2019
Egypt’s former president Mohammed Mursi dies after
collapsing in court
Arab News/June 17/2019
CAIRO: The former Egyptian president, Mohammed Morsi, died in Cairo on Monday at
the age of 67. Egyptian state television announced that Morsi, who was ousted by
the military on July 3, 2013, had been attending a court session at his trial on
charges of espionage and links with the Palestinian militant group Hamas. It was
reported that he collapsed in the courtroom inside a glass cage he and others
had been sharing, before his body was transferred to a local hospital.
Attorney-General Nabil Sadiq issued a statement saying: “The accused, Mohammed
Morsi, in the presence of the other defendants inside the cage, fell
unconscious, where he was immediately transferred to the hospital. “The
preliminary medical report stated that by external medical examination they
found no pulse, no breathing, and his eyes were unresponsive to light. He died
at 4:50 p.m. and no apparent injuries to the body were found.”Sadiq added he had
ordered the transfer of teams from the Supreme State Security Prosecution Office
and the Southern Cairo Prosecution Office to conduct an investigation into
Morsi’s death, and to examine surveillance footage from the courtroom and
collect witness testimonies. He also ordered that a senior forensic committee
headed by the chief medical officer and the director of forensic medicine to
prepare a forensic report on the cause of death. Various outlets say that a
state of high alert has been issued by the military and the Ministry of the
Interior throughout the country following the news, for fear of riots or
activity by the Muslim Brotherhood, in which Morsi was a prominent figure. Morsi
became president in June 2012 after the first democratic elections in the
country following the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak on Jan. 25, 2011. He was
Egypt’s fifth president. He was born to a family of farmers on Aug. 20, 1951, in
the village of Al-Adwa in Sharkia province. He married in 1978 and leaves behind
his wife, five children and three grandchildren. Following his deposition and
arrest, Morsi was sentenced to 20 years imprisonment on Oct. 22, 2016, over
bloody clashes that took place on Dec. 5, 2012 in front of the presidential
palace in Cairo, between supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and opponents of
Morsi rejecting a constitutional declaration issued in November of that year.
Other sentences meant his total incarceration could have been up to 48 years,
with the ongoing espionage case potentially carrying a further maximum sentence
of 25 years.
US military releases new images of Iranian forces removing mine from attacked
tanker
Arab News/June 17/2019
WASHINGTON: The US military on Monday released new images it says showed Iran's
Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) removing an unexploded limpet mine from a
Japanese-owned tanker that was attacked on June 13 in the Gulf of Oman, as
Washington blames Tehran for the attack. "Iran is responsible for the attack
based on video evidence and the resources and proficiency needed to quickly
remove the unexploded limpet mine," the US military's Central Command said in a
statement explaining the still-images.
White House: Iran ‘nuclear blackmail’ must be met with
international pressure
Reuters, Washington/Monday, 17 June 2019
Iran’s plan to exceed nuclear enrichment limits amount to “nuclear blackmail”
and must be met with increased international pressure, a White House National
Security Council spokesman said on Monday.
“Iran’s enrichment plans are only possible because the horrible nuclear deal
left their capabilities intact,” NSC spokesman Garrett Marquis said.
“President Trump has made it clear that he will never allow Iran to develop
nuclear weapons. The regime’s nuclear blackmail must be met with increased
international pressure.”Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
said on Monday that Iran should be immediately hit with sanctions if it
surpasses a uranium stockpile limit set under the 2015 nuclear deal. “Should
Iran make good on its current threats and violate the nuclear agreement, the
international community will need to immediately impose the sanctions regime
that was agreed upon in advance, the ‘snapback sanctions’,” Netanyahu said.
(With AFP inputs)
Iran says it is responsible for Gulf security, calls on US
forces to leave
Reuters, London/Monday, 17 June 2019
A senior Iranian security official said on Monday that Tehran was responsible
for security in the Gulf and called on US forces to leave the region, as
tensions rose following last week’s attacks on oil tankers.
“We have always said we guarantee the security of the Persian Gulf and the
Strait of Hormuz,” the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council,
Ali Shamkhani, was quoted as saying by the state broadcaster IRIB. “We repeat
our stance and call on US forces to finish their presence in the region as they
are the main source of crisis and instability.” Shamkhani was also quoted as
saying by IRIB that Tehran had recently exposed and dismantled a “large US cyber
espionage network,” including the arrest of several CIA agents.
Iran says if it decides to block Strait of Hormuz, it will do it ‘publicly’
Reuters/London Monday, 17 June 2019
Iran’s military denied on Monday being behind attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf
of Oman last week, and said if it decided to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital
gateway in the Gulf for the oil industry, it will do it publicly. Iran’s Armed
Forces Chief of Staff, Major General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri was quoted as
saying by Fars news agency: “If the Islamic Republic of Iran decides to block
exports of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, it is militarily strong enough to
do that fully and publicly.”The Strait of Hormuz links Middle East crude
producers to key markets in Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and beyond.
Rouhani: Time is short for Europe to save nuclear deal
Reuters, London/Monday, 17 June 2019
The time is short for Europe to save the international nuclear deal with Tehran
after Washington's withdrawal, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Monday,
according to Fars news agency.
"It's a crucial moment, and France can still work with other signatories of the
deal and play an historic role to save the deal in this very short time,"
Rouhani was quoted as saying during a meeting with France's new ambassador in
Iran. Rouhani said the collapse of the nuclear deal would not be in the
interests of the region and the world.
Iranian nuclear official: Iran will surpass low-enriched uranium level in June
The Associated Press, Tehran/Monday, 17 June 2019
A spokesman for Iran's atomic agency says the country will break the uranium
stockpile limit set by Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers in the next 10
days. Behrouz Kamalvandi made the comment in a news conference carried live on
Iranian state television on Monday. "Today the countdown to pass the 300
kilogrammes reserve of enriched uranium has started and in 10 days time we will
pass this limit," Iran's atomic energy organisation spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi
said at a press conference broadcast live. Kamalvandi said Tehran will increase
uranium enrichment levels "based on the country's needs," adding that the
country may export heavy water and that this would not be in violation of the
nuclear deal. He spoke to local journalists at Iran's Arak heavy water facility.
The spokesman added that there is still time for european countries to “help
protect iran from us sanctions… but they need to act not talk.”
His comments come in the wake of suspected attacks on oil tankers last week in
the region that Washington has blamed on Iran and amid heightened tensions
between Iran and the US, a year after President Donald Trump unilaterally
withdrew America for the nuclear deal.
Kamalvandi acknowledged that the country already quadrupled its production of
low-enriched uranium. Under terms of the nuclear deal, Iran can keep a stockpile
of no more than 300 kilograms of low-enriched uranium. Kamalvandi said that
given Iran’s recent decision to quadruple its production of low-enriched
uranium, it would pass the 300-kilogram limit on Thursday, July 27. The United
Nations nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said last
month that Iran still remained within its stockpile limits. The Vienna-based
agency declined to comment Monday on Iran’s announcement. Kamalvandi said Iran
needs 5% enrichment for its nuclear power plant in southern Iranian port of
Bushehr and it also needs 20% enrichment for a Tehran research reactor. The
nuclear deal had limited Iran to enriching uranium only to 3.67%, which is
enough for power plants and peaceful purposes.
But after America’s pullout and escalated sanctions, Tehran set a July 7
deadline for Europe to come up with better terms for the deal, or it would take
additional steps away from the accord, likely meaning it would boost enrichment
further. Kamalvandi enforced that stance, saying that Tehran will increase
uranium enrichment levels “based on the country’s needs.” Enriching a supply of
uranium means boosting its concentration of the type of uranium that can power a
nuclear reaction. That type, or isotope, is called U-235. Enrichment basically
means stripping away atoms of another isotope, called U-238. Boosting its purity
to 20% means removing 22 more unwanted isotopes per atom of U-235, while going
from there to 90% purity means removing just four more per atom of U-235. Ninety
percent is considered weapons-grade material. That means going from 20% to 90%
is a relatively quicker process, something that worries nuclear nonproliferation
experts. Iran maintains its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. Iran
reached its nuclear deal with world powers in 2015, agreeing to limit its
enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. Since
President Donald Trump took office, the US has steadily stripped away at the
accord. Trump pulled America out of the deal in May 2018.
Iran government advisor warns of ‘unavoidable war’ if sanctions not ‘abandoned’
Yaghoub Fazeli, for Al Arabiya English/Monday, 17 June 2019
An Iranian government advisor has warned that if US President Donald Trump does
not “abandon” sanctions against Iran, the world will be driven into an
“unavoidable war.”“If American people really don’t want to go to war with Iran,
the US president should abandon the current course of policy in regard to
sanctioning Iran. Otherwise, rising tensions automatically will drive us to an
unavoidable war, sooner or later,” tweeted Diako Hosseini, a senior analyst at
Tehran’s Centre for Strategic Studies (CSS), on Friday. Hosseini describes
himself as “The Director of the World Studies Program at the Center for
Strategic Studies (CSS)” on his Twitter account. CSS is a think-tank responsible
for advising the Rouhani administration in Iran on foreign policy as well as
internal affairs. In April 2019, Hosseini told the semi-official ISNA news
agency that the US designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a
terrorist organisation is an attempt to change Iran’s policies in the region but
in reality it “causes political groups in Iran to unite.”Hosseini told the
semi-official Tasnim News Agency on Thursday that “as long as America’s economic
war against Iran continues, Iran does not give any guarantees that the tools it
will use to counter this economic war will be merely economic tools.”“If Iran’s
survival becomes in danger in this [economic] war, Iran will use all the
available tools to defend itself. It is not our problem if that is a cause for
concern for other countries. If they are worried, they should push America to
put an end to the economic war against Iran,” he added. Hosseini also warned on
Twitter that if there were to be a war, the UAE and Bahrain would be the biggest
losers. “The biggest losers would be the mini-states in the Persian Gulf, like
[the] Emirate[s] and Bahrain. They will lose their existence or at least their
major assets in such a war,” he tweeted on Friday, in response to a tweet about
the possibility of a war. In another tweet on Friday replying to the Emirati
Foreign Minister Anwar Gargash, Hosseini warned that in the event of a war, “the
UAE will be wiped out from the map.”
“In the first place, de-escalation should be your top priority, not Iran’s,” he
said. “If a war happens, all in the region and beyond will suffer to varying
extents, but the #UAE will be wiped out from the map. The wise action on your
behalf is to be cautious about what you wish for.”
In December 2013, Hosseini wrote an article in Persian published in Iranian news
outlet Khabar Online and linked on his LinkedIn page, entitled “Why it is not a
good idea to détente with Saudi Arabia.” Hosseini wrote that those in Iran who
argue for better relations with Saudi Arabia present “false” arguments that
“lead Iran’s foreign policy in the wrong direction.”
US to send 1,000 additional troops to the Middle East
Reuters, Dubai/Washington/Tuesday, 18 June 2019
Acting US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan announced on Monday the deployment
of about 1,000 more troops to the Middle East for what he said were “defensive
purposes,” citing concerns about a threat from Iran. “The recent Iranian attacks
validate the reliable, credible intelligence we have received on hostile
behavior by Iranian forces and their proxy groups that threaten United States
personnel and interests across the region,” Shanahan said in a statement.
Reuters first reported plans to send US additional troops to the Middle East
earlier on Monday. Fears of a confrontation between Iran and the United States
have mounted since last Thursday when two oil tankers were attacked, more than a
year after President Donald Trump announced Washington was withdrawing from a
2015 nuclear deal. Iran said on Monday it would soon breach limits on how much
enriched uranium it can stockpile under the deal, which a White House National
Security Council spokesman said amounted to “nuclear blackmail.”
Germany, UK warn Iran over uranium plans as EU urges caution
AFP, Luxembourg/Monday, 17 June 2019
Germany and Britain on Monday warned Tehran not to breach uranium stockpile
limits set by the 2015 nuclear deal, as the EU’s diplomatic chief dismissed
Iranian threats as “political dialectics”. Iran set a 10-day countdown on Monday
to exceed the 300-kilogram limit set on its enriched uranium stocks, dealing
another blow to the crumbling nuclear accord signed by Tehran and six
international powers. The EU has battled to save the agreement since US
President Donald Trump withdrew and re-imposed sanctions, but Iran said it would
step back from exceeding the 300-kg limit on June 27 only if “other parties live
up to their commitments”. The move comes as Iran tries to step up pressure on
the deal’s other signatories – Germany, France, Britain, China, and Russia – to
help it sidestep US sanctions and in particular enable it to sell oil. German
Foreign Minister Heiko Maas rejected the Iranian ultimatum and insisted Tehran
must stick to its commitments under the deal. “We have already said in the past
that we will not accept less for less. It is up to Iran to stick to its
obligations,” Maas said after talks with EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg. “We
will certainly not accept a unilateral reduction of obligations.”
A spokesman for the British government echoed the call, saying the E3 – the
European signatories to the deal – has “consistently made clear that there can
be no reduction in compliance”. “For now Iran remains within its nuclear
commitments. We are coordinating with E3 partners on next steps,” the spokesman
added. The European Union’s diplomatic chief Federica Mogherini said the bloc
would not act on the basis of Iranian rhetoric but wait for reports by the UN’s
nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). “Our assessment
on the implementation of the nuclear deal has never been, is not and will never
be based on statements, but on the evaluation that the IAEA makes, the reports
that the IAEA produces and that can be done at any time,” Mogherini said after
the talks. “Announcements are relevant elements of political dialectics but our
assessment on the implementation of the agreement is based on the factual,
technically sound assessment and evaluation that the IAEA makes in its
reports.”On May 8, President Hassan Rouhani said Iran would stop observing
restrictions on its stocks of enriched uranium and heavy water agreed under the
2015 nuclear deal. Rouhani said the move was in retaliation for the unilateral
US withdrawal from the accord a year earlier, which saw Washington impose tough
economic sanctions on Tehran. Tensions between Tehran and Washington have
escalated ever since, with the United States bolstering its military presence in
the region and blacklisting Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist
organization.
U.N. Chief Tells Iran to Keep Implementing Nuclear Deal
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 17/2019
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday called on Iran to continue to
abide by a nuclear deal reached with world powers after Tehran said it would
soon surpass a uranium stockpile limit set in the 2015 accord. Guterres
"encourages Iran to continue to implement its nuclear-related commitments and
calls on all participants to abide fully by their respective commitments," his
spokesman Stephane Dujarric said. The U.N. chief also urged "other member states
to support the plan's implementation." "The secretary-general urges all parties
to refrain from any steps that may lead to further escalation of tensions in the
region," the spokesman added. Iran said Monday that as of June 27, it will have
more than the 300 kilos (660 pounds) of enriched uranium that it was allowed to
have under the deal originally reached with Britain, China, France, Germany,
Russia and the United States. Last year, U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned
the deal, under which Iran pledged to reduce its nuclear capacities for several
years and allow in inspectors in exchange for sanctions relief. Washington then
unilaterally reimposed crippling sanctions on Tehran. Guterres said the
agreement "represents a major achievement in nuclear non-proliferation and
diplomacy" and has "contributed to regional and international peace and
security," the spokesman said.
Saudi Energy Minister calls for collective global effort to
secure shipping lanes
Arab News/June 17/2019
TOKYO: Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said Monday that countries
need to cooperate on keeping shipping lanes open for oil and other energy
supplies after last week’s tanker attacks in the Middle East to ensure stable
supplies. While he did not outline any concrete steps after the attacks that
damaged two tankers on June 13, Falih said the Kingdom would do everything
necessary to ensure safe passage of energy from Saudi Arabia and its allies in
the region. “We’ll protect our own infrastructure, our own territories and we
are doing that despite the attempts to target some of our facilities,” Falih
told reporters in Tokyo.
“But sea lanes of global trade need to be protected collectively by other powers
as well. We believe that’s happening, but we need to make sure the rest of the
world pays attention,” he said after a Japan-Saudi investment conference. His
comments came as Iran, which has been blamed by the US and Saudi Arabia for the
attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, continued to escalate its
rhetoric. Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security
Council, claimed Iran was responsible for security in the Gulf and the Strait of
Hormuz, and called on US forces to leave the region, as tensions rose following
last week's attacks on oil tankers. The attacks have shaken the oil market and
rattled consumer countries that rely heavily on importing oil from the Arabian
Gulf, much of which has to be transported through the Straits of Hormuz - the
narrow shipping lane, which Iran has repeatedly threatened to disrupt.
Falih expects the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and
other producers including Russia to meet the week after the G20 summit to be
held in Osaka on June 28-29, to discuss an extension of a supply output cut
agreement. OPEC and other producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, have a deal to
cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Jan. 1. The pact ends this
month and the group meets in coming weeks to decide their next move. Falih said
that OPEC was moving was toward a consensus on extending the agreement. e said
earlier this month that OPEC was close to agreeing to extend a pact on cutting
oil supplies beyond June, although more talks were still needed with non-OPEC
countries. When asked if Russia is going to agree to continue the cuts, Falih
said “absolutely.” “We are maintaining the proper levels of supply that we have
been having to bring inventory levels to where they belong. I hope that will
continue in the second half with the assurances I have received from all the
OPEC+ countries,” he said. There was full commitment to put in place “a long
term framework between the OPEC+ coalition to ensure that we work together” from
next year, he said.
Oil demand growth has held up despite trade disputes roiling global markets,
Falih said, adding he expects worldwide demand to be above 100 million barrels
per day this year. “We are not seeing a slowdown from either China, the US,
India or other developed economies,” Falih said. “The impact has been more on
the sentiment side and fear, rather than actual impact,” he said.
Iran faces backlash over ‘nuclear blackmail’
Arab News/June 17/2019/
JEDDAH: Iran faced a backlash from Europe and the US on Monday after it
threatened to breach uranium stockpile limits set by the 2015 deal to curb its
nuclear program. The White House said Iran’s new threat was “nuclear blackmail”
and European signatories to the agreement said the regime in Tehran must stick
to its commitments. Iran set a 10-day countdown on Monday to exceed the
300-kilogram limit set on its enriched uranium stocks, dealing another blow to
the crumbling nuclear accord signed by Tehran and six international powers.
“Iran’s enrichment plans are only possible because the horrible nuclear deal
left their capabilities intact,” US National Security Council spokesman Garrett
Marquis said. “President Trump has made it clear that he will never allow Iran
to develop nuclear weapons. The regime’s nuclear blackmail must be met with
increased international pressure.”German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas also
rejected the Iranian ultimatum. “We have already said in the past that we will
not accept less for less. It is up to Iran to stick to its obligations,” he
said. “We will certainly not accept a unilateral reduction of obligations.”A
spokesman for the British government said the European signatories to the deal
had “consistently made clear that there can be no reduction in
compliance.”French President Emmanuel Macron said Paris would hold talks with
Iran and its partners to avoid any further escalation in the region.
“I regret the Iranian announcements made … and we strongly encourage it to be
patient and responsible,” Macron said. He said there was a window between now
and July 8 for more dialogue to save the nuclear deal. All forms of escalation
do not go in the right direction and won’t help Iran itself and the
international community, so we will do all we can with our partners to dissuade
Iran and find a possible path for dialogue.” European countries have been trying
to save the nuclear deal since US President Donald Trump withdrew last May and
reimposed crippling economic sanctions. Iran has demanded their help to sidestep
the sanctions, and in particular to enable it to sell oil on world markets.
Report: Mortars land on Iraqi military base near Baghdad
Reuters, Baghdad/Monday, 17 June 2019
Two mortar shells landed on a military base hosting US forces north of Baghdad
late on Monday without causing casualties, a military source said. The mortars
came down in the Iraqi section of the sprawling Taji military base, located
about 30 km north of the Iraqi capital.
White House will not invite Israeli officials to Bahrain event: US official
Reuters/Monday, 17 June 2019
The White House will not invite Israeli government officials to a Bahrain
conference devoted to gaining support for a Palestinian economic plan in order
to keep the event apolitical, a senior administration official said on Monday.
The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Palestinian business
representatives are expected to attend the event in Manama on June 25-26, but
not Palestinian government officials, who have boycotted a peace initiative led
by White House senior adviser Jared Kushner. As a result, the administration
decided not to extend an invitation to Israeli government officials to a
conference expected to be attended by envoys from Arab governments as well as
European nations. In Manama, Kushner and President Donald Trump’s Middle East
envoy Jason Greenblatt are to unveil the economic part of Trump’s long-awaited
Israeli-Palestinian peace plan. The plan, touted by Trump as the “deal of the
century,” is to encourage investment in the West Bank and Gaza Strip by Arab
donor countries before grappling with thorny political issues at the heart of
the conflict.
Sudan protesters urge return to night-time rallies over
‘massacre’
AFP, Khartoum/Monday, 17 June 2019
The Sudanese movement whose protests triggered the ouster of Omar al-Bashir
called Monday on its supporters to renew night-time rallies to condemn the
“massacre” of demonstrators at a Khartoum sit-in.
Thousands of protesters who had camped outside the Khartoum military
headquarters for weeks were violently dispersed by gunmen in military fatigues
on June 3, leaving dozens dead and hundreds wounded, according to doctors and
witnesses. The sit-in was held for weeks, initially seeking the ouster of Bashir
and later to demand that the army generals who toppled him hand power to a
civilian administration. The protest camp was dispersed after talks between the
Alliance for Freedom and Change the umbrella protest movement, and a
transitional military council collapsed over installing civilian rule.
At least 128 people have been killed since the June 3 crackdown, the majority
the day the sit-in was cleared, according to doctors linked to the protest
movement. The health ministry put that day’s death toll nationwide at 61. On
Monday, the alliance called for night-time demonstrations in residential areas
of Khartoum and other regions starting Tuesday to “ask for our main demands,
which are a transitional civilian rule and condemning the massacre of June 3”.
Protests would also be held on Wednesday and Thursday nights. “We are calling on
our people in villages, towns and all over the country to participate,” the
alliance said. During the anti-Bashir campaign, the alliance had managed to
mobilize supporters by posting its calls on social media networks, but since the
June 3 crackdown the authorities have cut back internet services across the
country. Talks between the protest leaders and the military council are,
however, expected to resume following mediation led by Ethiopian Prime Minister
Abiy Ahmed, but it is still unclear when they are to begin. “We welcome the
mediation by Ethiopia,” protest leader Mohamed Naji al-Assam told a press
conference on Monday. Assam also condemned “the horrors committed by the forces
affiliated with the (ruling) military council”. “There are 12 documented cases
of rape,” he said, also accusing the forces of “premeditated murder” and
“throwing bodies (of protesters) in the Nile” river. Last week, military council
spokesman General Shamseddine Kabbashi angrily dismissed such allegations as
“lies”. Kabbashi, however, expressed “regret” over the “excesses” on June 3.
Arab League chief warns no Middle East peace deal without Palestinian state
Arab News/June 17/2019
CAIRO: The head of the Arab League warned Monday that attempts to solve the
Israel-Palestinian conflict will be in vain without the establishment of a
Palestinian state on all territories occupied by Israel in the 1967 Middle East
war. Ahmed Aboul Gheit’s comments appeared directed at a still unpublished peace
plan that Donald Trump has dubbed the “deal of the century.” As part of the
plan, a US-led conference will be held next week in Bahrain on proposals for the
Palestinian economy. The Palestinian leadership is boycotting the conference,
saying Trump’s peace plan is likely to be heavily weighted in favor of Israel
and to quash their aspirations for statehood in the occupied West Bank and Gaza
Strip. While the precise outlines of the draft plan have yet to be revealed,
Palestinian and Arab sources who have been briefed on it say it jettisons the
two-state solution. “Whatever is rejected by the Palestinian or the Arab side is
unacceptable,” Aboul Gheit said during an event at the Arab League. “What is
acceptable from our side as Arabs as a solution is the establishment of a
Palestinian state on the June 4, 1967 borders, with Jerusalem as its capital,”
he added.
Aboul Gheit said that Israel’s acceptance of an Arab Peace Initiative drawn up
by Saudi Arabia in 2002, which offers Israel normal ties in return for
withdrawal from territory captured in 1967, was the only acceptable solution for
Arab states. “If (Israel) chooses the only reasonable and accepted way from our
side as Arabs, which is the establishment of a Palestinian state ... it will be
accepted in the region as a normal regional partner,” he said. Last week, a
White House official said Egypt, Jordan and Morocco planned to attend the
Bahrain conference. Palestinians urged Egypt and Jordan to reconsider their
attendance at the US-led conference in Bahrain, voicing concern it would weaken
any Arab opposition to Washington’s coming peace plan.
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on June 17-18/2019
The Palestinian Leaders' War on Preventing Corruption
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/June 17/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14390/palestinians-corruption
The Palestinian Authority has chosen to crack down on
anti-corruption activists as part of an effort to silence its critics and deter
others from demanding transparency and accountability.
Stories concerning rampant financial and administrative corruption in the
Palestinian Authority do not surprise those who have been reporting on
Palestinian affairs in the past two decades. What is surprising is the growing
number of Palestinian individuals and groups who are openly defying Palestinian
Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his senior officials by talking about and
exposing corruption.
What Palestinian leaders are actually telling their people, in other words, is
that anyone who complains about corruption is a traitor working with the
Americans and Israelis against the interests of the Palestinians. This charge
not only carries the death penalty, it brings shame to the accused and his or
her entire clan. Palestinians are thus understandably wary of such an
accusation.
Palestinian leaders not only deny their people the right to institutions of
proper governing, they are now doing their best to block any chance of improving
their living conditions by boycotting the upcoming Bahrain conference, whose
main goal is to offer Palestinians economic prosperity and rid them of failed
leaders whose sole interest seems to be enriching their own bank accounts and
those of their family members.
A growing number of Palestinians are demanding that the Palestinian Authority
(PA) take serious measures to end financial and administrative corruption among
its top brass.
Rather than heeding these calls, however, the Palestinian Authority has chosen
to crack down on anti-corruption activists as part of an effort to silence its
critics and deter others from demanding transparency and accountability. The
Palestinian Authority's measures against anti-corruption activists have angered
many Palestinians, who are accusing their leaders of covering up for senior
officials suspected of abusing power for their own personal gain.
In the past few days, the Palestinian Authority security forces in the West Bank
arrested two prominent anti-corruption activists: Fayez al-Sweiti, Mohammed
Ayesh and Saed Abu al-Baha.
Sweiti, who heads a not-for-profit anti-corruption organization, was arrested
after he shared on his Facebook page a document accusing senior Palestinian
official Hussein al-Sheikh, head of the Palestinian General Authority for Civil
Affairs and member of the Fatah Central Committee, of exploiting his job for
personal gain.
Although the Palestinian Authority insists that the document is forged, several
Palestinians say they have good reason to believe it is authentic.
Sweiti's son, Saeb, said that more than 20 officers belonging to the Palestinian
Preventive Security Force raided his family's home near the West Bank city of
Hebron early in the morning. The officers, he said, confiscated his father's
computer, mobile phone and other documents. They also informed his father that
he must report to the office of the Palestinian prosecutor general later in the
day.
After being interrogated about the document he had shared on Facebook, Sweiti
was ordered held in detention for 48 hours. He was released the following day,
however, after widespread protests by Palestinian human rights and
anti-corruption activists.
The second anti-corruption activist, Mohammed Ayesh, was arrested on June 12 as
he was on his way to work in Bethlehem, his family said. Earlier this month,
Ayesh was briefly detained by Palestinian security officers after he asked Prime
Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh why his government had arrested Ala' Bashir, a female
Koran teacher from the village of Jainsafout in the West Bank.
The third man, Saed Abu al-Baha, who is also affiliated with Hamas in the West
Bank, was arrested for his role in the anti-corruption campaign waged on social
media. Shortly before his arrest, he called on Palestinians to take to the
streets to demand transparency from their leaders and protest corruption.
The arrest of the anti-corruption activists came in the aftermath of a new
scandal that hit the Palestinian Authority in recent weeks. Documents leaked by
social media users revealed that the Palestinian Authority government had
secretly agreed to increase monthly salaries of its ministers by 67%, from
$3,000 to $5,000. The prime minister's salary, the documents showed, was raised
from $4,000 to $6,000. The scandal surrounding the salary hike has seriously
embarrassed the Palestinian Authority, whose leaders this time did not question
the authenticity of the leaked documents. The Palestinian Authority has defended
the controversial decision by arguing that it was taken by the previous
government back in 2017.
The Palestinians were not the only ones to protest the decision to raise the
salaries of the prime minister and his cabinet members. United Nations Special
Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, Nickolay Mladenov, said that he
spoke to Prime Minister Shtayyeh, "who committed to end this practice
immediately." Criticizing the secret salary raise, Mladenov added: "At a time
when the Palestinian people are struggling with economic hardship, when salaries
were cut in Gaza, such decisions defy logic and rightly anger people."
Another scandal that recently hit the Palestinian Authority concerns nepotism in
the Palestinian Foreign Ministry.
A video posted on Facebook last week revealed that the wife of the Palestinian
Authority ambassador to Spain is serving as ambassador to Sweden, while his
brother, who also holds the rank of ambassador, works as head of the Latin
America Department in Fatah's International Affairs Department.
The ambassador's daughter, the video revealed, was appointed as a Palestinian
"spokeswoman" in Europe, while her husband works as senior aide to the
Palestinian foreign minister.
"One family holds all these jobs in the [Palestinian] Foreign Ministry," said a
caption attached to the video. "This confirms the corruption of nepotism inside
the ministry. The video also claimed that Foreign Minister Riad Malki, who has
been in his position for 12 years, had appointed his brother as ambassador to
Colombia. "Is this a foreign ministry or a family ministry?" asked another
caption accompanying the video.
Stories concerning rampant financial and administrative corruption in the
Palestinian Authority do not surprise those who have been reporting on
Palestinian affairs in the past two decades. What is surprising is the growing
number of Palestinian individuals and groups who are openly defying Palestinian
Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his senior officials by talking about and
exposing corruption.
More and more Palestinians are stepping up -- and risking their lives (and jobs)
-- by using social media platforms to discuss corruption -- an issue long
considered a taboo in Palestinian society. For many years, Palestinian leaders
managed to divert attention from corruption by directing the heat against,
mostly, Israel.
Beleaguered Palestinian officials are again resorting to this reliable old
sleight of hand. This time, they are saying that the corruption charges are
being made suspiciously close to the announcement of US President Donald Trump's
plan for peace in the Middle East, also known as the "Deal of the Century."
Munir al-Jaghoub, a senior official with Abbas's ruling Fatah faction, claimed
that leaking the corruption documents is linked to both the Palestinian
Authority's rejection of the Trump plan and the US-led economic conference
slated to take place in Bahrain later this month.
This statement is intended to create the impression that the Palestinian
Authority is facing some kind of American-Israeli conspiracy because of its
rejection of the Deal of the Century. What Palestinian leaders are actually
telling their people, in other words, is that anyone who complains about
corruption is a traitor working with the Americans and Israelis against the
interests of the Palestinians. This charge not only carries the death penalty,
it brings shame to the accused and his or her entire clan. Palestinians are thus
understandably wary of such an accusation.
The crackdown on anti-corruption activists and the attempt to deter Palestinians
from demanding transparency and accountability demonstrates how far the
Palestinian leadership is from combatting corruption and preventing its senior
officials from abusing power for personal gain.
Palestinian leaders not only deny their people the right to institutions of
proper governing, they are now doing their best to block any chance of improving
their living conditions by boycotting the upcoming Bahrain conference, whose
main goal is to offer Palestinians economic prosperity and rid them of failed
leaders whose sole interest seems to be enriching their own bank accounts and
those of their family members.
**Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a
Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute. litmus paper
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
China: "Protecting" the Arctic
Debalina Ghoshal/Gatestone Institute/June 17/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14367/china-arctic
The Arctic -- where both the United States and Russia maintain a military
presence -- is known for being rich in hydrocarbons. The Chinese, in their
claims to such a valuable energy source, clearly do not wish to be left behind.
As China already has deployed anti-ship cruise missiles and surface-to-air
missiles -- while planning to build and deploy floating nuclear reactors -- in
the South China Sea, it is certainly plausible that Beijing has similar plans
for the Arctic.
Both China's Arctic Policy and its Belt and Road Initiative seem paths towards
what appears to be China's aim at achieving global hegemony.
China's aggressive behavior in the South China Sea by now is old news, but
Beijing's recent moves in the Arctic have been attracting attention.
The Arctic -- where both the United States and Russia maintain a military
presence -- is known for being rich in hydrocarbons. The Chinese, in their
claims to such a valuable energy source, clearly do not wish to be left behind.
Just as Chinese President Xi Jinping has been pushing the Belt and Road
Initiative, he also aims to develop a "Polar Silk Road" for shipping lanes,
which he believes are opening up due to glacial melting caused by global
warming. This belief appears to stem from the "open polar sea" theory, according
to which the polar seas created by climate change ultimately could be exploited
for commercial purposes.
China spelled out its "Arctic Policy" in January 2018 in an extensive document,
which reads, in part:
"To understand the Arctic, China will improve the capacity and capability in
scientific research on the Arctic, pursue a deeper understanding and knowledge
of the Arctic science, and explore the natural laws behind its changes and
development, so as to create favorable conditions for mankind to better protect,
develop, and govern the Arctic.
"To protect the Arctic, China will actively respond to climate change in the
Arctic, protect its unique natural environment and ecological system, promote
its own climatic, environmental and ecological resilience, and respect its
diverse social culture and the historical traditions of the indigenous peoples.
"To develop the Arctic, China will improve the capacity and capability in using
applied Arctic technology, strengthen technological innovation, environmental
protection, resource utilization, and development of shipping routes in the
Arctic, and contribute to the economic and social development of the Arctic,
improve the living conditions of the local people and strive for common
development.
"To participate in the governance of the Arctic, China will participate in
regulating and managing the affairs and activities relating to the Arctic on the
basis of rules and mechanisms. Internationally, China is committed to the
existing framework of international law including the UN Charter, UNCLOS,
treaties on climate change and the environment, and relevant rules of the
International Maritime Organization, and to addressing various traditional and
non-traditional security threats through global, regional, multilateral and
bilateral mechanisms, and to building and maintaining a just, reasonable and
well-organized Arctic governance system. Domestically, China will regulate and
manage Arctic-related affairs and activities within its jurisdiction in
accordance with the law, steadily enhance its ability to understand, protect and
develop the Arctic, and actively participate in international cooperation in
Arctic affairs."
In spite of China's stated goals of "technological innovation" and
"environmental protection," the United States is apprehensive about Beijing's
military intentions. According to the Pentagon's newly released "Annual Report
to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic
of China 2019":
"China has increased activities and engagement in the Arctic region since
gaining observer status on the Arctic Council in 2013. China published an Arctic
Strategy in January 2018 that promoted a 'Polar Silk Road,' self-declared China
to be a 'Near-Arctic State,' and identified China's interests as access to
natural resources and sea lines of communication (SLOCs), and promoting an image
of a 'responsible major country' in Arctic affairs. The strategy highlights
China's icebreaker vessels and research stations in Iceland and Norway as
integral to its implementation. Arctic border countries have raised concerns
about China's expanding capabilities and interest in the region. Civilian
research could support a strengthened Chinese military presence in the Arctic
Ocean, which could include deploying submarines to the region as a deterrent
against nuclear attacks."
As China already has deployed anti-ship cruise missiles and surface-to-air
missiles -- while planning to build and deploy floating nuclear reactors -- in
the South China Sea, it is certainly plausible that Beijing has similar plans
for the Arctic.
The administration in Washington, therefore, is -- and should be -- closely
monitoring China's maritime activities in the Arctic. The Chinese government's
assertion that the purpose of its Arctic Policy is to "create favorable
conditions for mankind to better protect, develop, and govern the Arctic" is as
false as President Xi's earlier description of the Belt and Road Initiative as a
project for world "peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual
learning and mutual benefit."
Both projects seem paths towards what appears to be China's aim at achieving
global hegemony.
Debalina Ghoshal is an India-based non-resident fellow at the Council on
International Policy in Canada. She is also an Asia Pacific Fellow with the East
West Institute.
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or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Oil trades sideways as Gulf tensions take a toll on markets
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/June 17/2019
The oil price ended flat last week, but oscillated widely as the two forces
influencing the oil markets — geopolitical tensions and weaker global economic
growth — made their presence felt.
Upward pressures from geopolitical risks led to a jump in oil prices on
Thursday. The attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, just off the Strait of
Hormuz, had observers on edge following similar incidents and two drone strikes
on the east-to-west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia in May.
Twenty percent of global crude production passes through the Strait of Hormuz,
which makes the shipping channel a potential choke point. The attacks nullified
diplomatic efforts to mediate between Iran and its Arab neighbors. German
Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had both
visited Tehran, with Iran sanctions, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and
geopolitical tensions in the region uppermost in their minds.
The downward pressure from a weaker economic outlook and heightened trade
tensions was underlined in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) monthly oil
market report released last week.
The agency revised its 2019 demand growth downward from 1.3 million barrels per
day (bpd) last month to 1.2 million bpd, citing concerns over the global
economic outlook. That is the second downward revision in as many months. The
demand situation is even bleaker when looking at the first quarter of this year
when demand grew by only 300,000 bpd compared with the same period last year —
the lowest demand growth since the fourth quarter of 2011. The agency blamed a
warmer than usual winter in Japan and slowing demand in the European
petrochemicals sector.
Twenty percent of global crude production passes through the Strait of Hormuz,
which makes the shipping channel a potential choke point.
On the other side of the equation, higher non-OPEC supply will do nothing to
support the oil price. The forecast is for non-OPEC supply to rise by 2.3
million bpd in 2020, up from 1.9 million bpd in 2019. Unlike this year, the
agency sees the non-OPEC supply growth to be wider than just from the US in
2020. Brazil, Norway and Canada will be major contributors.
This is bad news for OPEC, because call on OPEC crude is forecasted to be
600,000 bpd lower than its current production. This is despite OPEC’s stunning
overcompliance with the production cuts the organization agreed with its 10
non-OPEC allies, known as OPEC+ last December. The discipline can in part be
attributed to Saudi Arabia and the UAE vigorously acting on the cuts. However,
lower Iranian production due to sanctions and declining Venezuelan production
supported the measures.
While tensions led to a jump in oil prices of over 4 percent on Thursday,
markets clearly viewed the supply demand picture as more pertinent. Oil opened
just shy of $62 per barrel in early Asian trading on Monday. That is down about
14 percent month on month. Observers may be jittery, but markets will react only
when threats to the status quo materialize, especially when the underlying
supply demand scenario is bearish. Traders may also be relaxed about temporary
supply glitches since OPEC sits on around 3.2 million bpd of spare capacity,
according to the IEA. That leaves considerable wiggle room.
OPEC+ will have big decisions to make when it meets in the next couple of weeks.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih seems optimistic that OPEC + will extend
production cuts beyond June. However, if the IEA’s predictions are correct, this
may not be enough to stabilize the price. The 25 nations could face further
action down the road.
Al-Falih said he aimed to balance the markets this year. Faced with the
impending supply glut, however, the oil allies may have to look further ahead.
**Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert.
Twitter: @MeyerResources
Designate IRGC, Houthis to increase pressure on Iran
Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/June 17/2019
As Germany and Japan were not able to persuade Iran to climb down from its
collision course with the international community, it is important to consider
the next steps to avoid war and at the same time bring Tehran to the negotiating
table to discuss the concerns of its neighbors and the world at large.
The failure of last week’s visits to Iran by the Japanese prime minister and
German foreign minister is by now quite evident. Iran did not respond to calls
for negotiations and restraint, but instead escalated its confrontation with the
US and the international community with further attacks on international
shipping and missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia. It has also
announced that it plans to breach limits on its uranium stockpile in the near
future and increase enrichment levels.
Last Wednesday, the Houthis attacked Abha Airport, injuring 26 civilians — an
attack labeled by the New York-based Human Rights Watch as a possible war crime.
On Thursday, two oil tankers, one Japanese and one Norwegian, were attacked in
international waters, “almost certainly” by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC). The attacks coincided with German and Japanese attempts to defuse
the situation. Later in the week, Saudi defenses intercepted several drone
attacks against civilian targets in southern Saudi Arabia, including one over
the city of Abha. The Houthis have claimed responsibility for these and hundreds
of other missile and drone attacks, which they have stepped up to coincide with
the attacks on international shipping in the Gulf region. Last month, similar
attacks were launched against oil tankers off the UAE coast and an oil pipeline
in Saudi Arabia.
No one is sure what route Iran will follow next; whether they are trying to
start a war through these provocations, or using the threat of war to pressure
the US to change its sanctions and “maximum pressure” policy. Either way, Iran’s
high stakes brinkmanship could lead to a military confrontation.
Assuming that the current low-intensity conflict continues, there is a needed to
adopt a long-term approach to produce the desired results, including changing
Iran’s behavior to ensure it lives within its borders like a normal state and
according to the principles of international law and the UN Charter.
The first step is to strengthen the global consensus against Iran’s support for
terrorism. The international community was able to unite to fight Daesh and
Al-Qaeda. A similar approach should be followed to outlaw the IRGC globally, as
the US and a few other countries have done. The Global Coalition Against Daesh,
led by the US, included scores of countries — by no means every country, but it
embodied a consensus that enabled it to act against Daesh. The attacks against
oil tankers are clear acts of terrorism and should move skeptics to designate
the IRGC as a terrorist enterprise and its leaders as terrorists.
Similarly, the Houthis have committed acts of terror and, in some cases, war
crimes. Providing the Houthis with missiles and drones and training the
militiamen to use them against civilians are also acts of terror and in clear
violation of UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions, including 2216 of April
2015, which was adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. In some cases, the
indiscriminate use of ballistic missiles and drones by Houthi militias, and
their attacks against civilian targets, could constitute war crimes.
The attacks against oil tankers are clear acts of terrorism and should move
skeptics to designate the IRGC as a terrorist enterprise.
A global move to designate the Houthi militia as a terrorist group is warranted.
Already, the UNSC has imposed sanctions against individual Houthi leaders, but
the recent systematic attacks targeting civilians and civilian structures in
Saudi Arabia have proved that the whole Houthi enterprise is terrorist in
nature, i.e., deliberately using violence against civilians to achieve political
goals.
After legally designating the IRGC and the Houthis as terrorist groups, the
international community’s next step should be to follow the example of the
Global Coalition Against Daesh. UNSC resolutions 2249 and 2253 and similar
instruments have provided the framework under which the international community
has dealt with Daesh, Al-Qaeda and similar designated organizations. They were
mostly unanimously adopted, sometimes issued under Chapter VII of the Charter,
and called upon all UN member states to redouble their efforts against these
groups. That framework provided the international community, collectively or
through coalitions of interested parties, to go after these terrorist
enterprises. Depriving them of funds is an important step in this framework.
Through the coordinated work of central banks, finance ministries and security
organizations, channels of funding are gradually disrupted and terrorists are
starved of the money need to carry out their activities.
The counter-terrorism framework exists and functions fairly well, and it could
be adapted to deal with the IRGC and its proxies in the region, including the
Houthi militias. All that is needed is the designation of a particular group as
a terrorist organization.
The IRGC is a mammoth enterprise compared to Daesh or Al-Qaeda and, as such, it
would be a difficult undertaking to stop its activities, but enough pressure
could be put on its leaders to disabuse them of the idea that they can achieve
their goals by attacking international shipping, oil pipelines, airports or
other civilian targets. Hopefully, this would push them and Iran into accepting
calls for negotiations and to discuss the underlying reasons for the US
sanctions.
*Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC Assistant Secretary-General for Political
Affairs & Negotiation, and a columnist for Arab News. The views expressed in
this piece are personal and do not necessarily represent GCC views. Twitter:
@abuhamad1
Tunisian elections could be a make or break moment
Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/June 17/2019
In December 2018, exactly eight years after the street vendor Mohammed Bouazizi
had immolated himself and triggered the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia, a young,
unemployed photojournalist, Abderrazak Zorgui, also immolated himself in an
eerie replay, signaling the deep dissatisfaction of large numbers of Tunisians
with the slow pace of change in their country. Since 2011, the country has seen
10 governments, with popular disenchantment with the political order increasing
by the day.
Observers point fingers at the continuing economic malaise. Unemployment is at
15 percent, but soars to 30 percent among the youth and the educated. Wages are
low and inflation is high, while corruption continues to gnaw at the vitals of
the state. Distinguished commentator Larbi Sadiki has described the Tunisian
scenario as being defined by “multiple marginalization” — the “regional, spatial
and cumulative estrangement” of the populace from justice and the amelioration
of poverty and deprivation.
This multiple marginalization, Sadiki says, has three expressions: One is
regional, where the south and the west of the country are excluded from economic
benefits at the expense of the coastal areas; and two is developmental, in which
the people are denied access to employment and the nation is denied augmentation
of its productive capacity. But the most serious marginalization is the third,
human — where the people at large are excluded from their share of the national
wealth and are denied the ability to fulfill their aspirations and potential due
to inadequate education and training.
National politics as it has evolved over the last eight years is largely to
blame: The popular upsurge of 2011 got rid of the authoritarian order but failed
to replace it with a responsible and responsive political system. The sharp
competitions and disorder of the early years were replaced by a national
consensus in 2014, under the terms of which the Islamist Ennahda and the secular
Nidaa Tounes agreed to work together in a National Unity Government (NUG) that,
in July 2016, was buttressed by the entry of five opposition parties and three
trade unions.
Commentators acknowledge that the NUG played a vital role in national affairs at
a delicate moment in the country’s transition from authoritarian rule to liberal
democracy. It provided unity at a time of deep national divisions and threats
from extremist elements, particularly from Tunisian radicals returning home from
the fighting in Syria.
It shaped a constitution that recognized all Tunisians, regardless of gender,
denomination or ethnicity, as equal citizens and bestowed upon them democratic
rights and liberties. Finally, it institutionalized in the fledgling democracy a
participatory political system, with parties, free elections and watchdog
institutions.
But this “consensus model,” as Sarah Yerkes and Zeineb Ben Yahmed argued in
their Carnegie report of March 2019, has now outlived its utility. The coalition
has controlled 80 percent of the assembly, thus providing no scope for an
effective opposition that would limit the excesses of those in power. This has
enabled the government headed by President Beji Caid Essebsi to gradually relax
restrictions on elements associated with the earlier authoritarian government
and bring them into the national mainstream, while resurrecting old emergency
laws to curb rights and liberties and monitor citizens’ activities.
The popular upsurge of 2011 got rid of the authoritarian order but failed to
replace it with a responsible and responsive political system.
Yerkes and Yahmed assert that Tunisia is now ready for the next stage in its
democratic evolution. They say the forthcoming parliamentary and presidential
elections in October and November respectively should be used to shed the
consensus model in favor of normal politics shaped by strong parties presenting
clear platforms and policies before the electorate and pursuing institutional
reforms that have eluded the earlier governments.
Tunisia’s leading politicians are already gearing up for these challenges. In
April this year, Essebsi, all of 92 years, announced that he might not stand for
the next presidential elections, saying that the country needed a change and
doors should be opened for young people. But observers are not convinced these
are his last words on the subject.
The supporters of Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke away from Nidaa Tounes in
January this year (after his membership of the party had been “frozen” in
September 2018) and in early June elected Chahed as the president of their new
party, Tahya Tounes (Long Live Tunisia). Tahya Tounes, with 44 seats, is the
second largest in Parliament after Ennahda, but is ahead of Nidaa Tounes. The
ground is thus well-prepared for Chahed’s candidature for the presidency.
Another group emerging as a serious player on the electoral scene is the
National Union of Independents. This consists of a group of five civil society
organizations that, in the municipal elections in May last year, won a plurality
of the national vote — 33 percent, as against 30 percent for Ennahda and a
modest 22 percent for Nidaa Tounes. This group is proposing a progressive
platform, seeking to benefit from the loss of credibility of national parties
and to offer real economic change to the electorate.
The elections of late 2019 will need to provide Tunisia with a government that
genuinely and effectively responds to the needs and aspirations of the voters.
Otherwise, there are fears the people might opt for a return to authoritarian
rule.
*Talmiz Ahmad is an author and former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman
and the UAE. He holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies at Symbiosis
International University in Pune, India.
Tory members must choose next leader wisely
Chris Doyle/Arab News/June 17/2019
Back in April, Donald Tusk passionately pleaded with the UK, saying “please
don’t waste this time.” The European Council president urged Britain to use the
six-month extension to Brexit talks wisely. Now, more than a third of the way
through this timeframe, Tusk may not be impressed. Certainly, nobody could
accuse the British political classes of acting in haste.
By the end of June, in theory, the micro-electorate of 160,000 Conservative
Party members will be presented with a choice of two candidates, one of whom
they will vote to be their leader and probable next UK prime minister. The rest
of the country’s 45 million voters will have no say at all. This voting process
should be completed by the end of July, just before the summer holidays. August
is a dead zone politically, so this takes us into early September. Two months
will be left to sort out a solution and get it ratified by all parties.
The Conservative Party leadership tussle started months ago, even if the
official starting gun was only fired on June 10. Thus far, it is hard to see
which of the candidates will break the Brexit logjam.
The same number of MPs are still in favor of leaving with or without a deal, the
same number are against no deal, and the same number are prepared for a
negotiated exit. The parliamentary numbers will not change; the different
political formations are securely siloed. No matter who becomes prime minister,
they cannot be assured of a majority for a deal, for no deal, a referendum or to
remain in the EU. Indeed, if a hard-line Brexiteer triumphs, he may lose a
number of MPs from the Conservative ranks and not even command a majority in the
House of Commons. A reported 30 members of the House of Lords have also
threatened to abandon the Tories if a no-deal Brexit is proposed.
Across the Channel, the EU insists that negotiations on the existing withdrawal
agreement are not an option. Will Brussels budge? Well maybe, but not just
because Britain has a new leader who simply objects louder and more
boisterously. European politicians calculate, not unreasonably, that they have
the stronger hand.
Given the widespread Tory belief that either the Conservatives ensure the UK
leaves the EU or they leave government, one option of the more hard-line
candidates is to force Parliament into a lockdown, or to prorogue it. The
leading candidate, Boris Johnson, will not rule this out. This would mean the
Queen having to agree to close Parliament against its will so that it could not
block a no-deal exit. This nuclear option would be a massive threat to British
democracy, with the executive headed by a man (all female candidates are already
out) with no electoral mandate from the country bypassing the elected
legislature. If Johnson or Dominic Raab, who also endorses prorogation, attempts
this, Rory Stewart, a more centrist candidate, would back holding Parliament
elsewhere. “We will hold our own session of Parliament across the road in
Methodist Central Hall and we will bring him down,” he said.
A feature of the campaign so far is the dearth of original thinking, not least
as far as Brexit is concerned
If the numbers are not changing, then how about the arguments? A feature of the
campaign so far is the dearth of original thinking, not least as far as Brexit
is concerned. The candidates are recycling the old arguments and conjuring herds
of unicorns in a tiring “Groundhog Day” nightmare. If there are fresh ideas,
they are well camouflaged.
In terms of personalities, Johnson should be dominating given his brand and
much-touted political heft, yet he is absent. This is his submarine strategy, of
allowing himself as little exposure as possible, even eschewing the chance to
appear on Sunday’s first televised debate and dodging forensic interviews with
informed journalists. This is bizarre, given that Johnson’s perceived strength
is his charisma and ability to reach out to those who might not always vote for
the Tories. The runaway favorite is running away.
Johnson’s minders fear exposing their candidate to the rigors of debate and
scrutiny, aware that the biggest threat to Johnson is Johnson himself. He should
win, with the most MPs backing him and a massive slug of the membership still in
thrall to him. It is too simplistic to define him as a British version of Donald
Trump or a populist phony, but he has some worrying traits — the lack of
attention to detail, his cavalier attitude to truth and accuracy, and a litany
of quotes that suggest racism, Islamophobia, homophobia and misogyny. His former
editor, Max Hastings, described him as “a man of remarkable gifts flawed by an
absence of conscience, principle or scruple.”
Johnson’s camp is even pushing for a coronation, whereby the MPs simply agree to
give him the throne without going to the membership, as happened with Theresa
May in 2016. However, many point out that, had May been tested, her awkward
campaigning skills and lack of warmth would have been highlighted.
The Conservative Party membership has not had a chance to vote for its leader
for 14 years. It is a strange electorate: Predominantly male, white, and a third
of them being pensioners. The members are even more Euroskeptic than
Conservative voters. Two-thirds would support leaving the EU with no deal, which
the majority of the rest of the country see as political and economic suicide.
It is a party risking freefall, with disastrous local and European election
results. Can it get worse than winning just 9 percent of the vote in the EU
elections? This selectorate has to get it right for both the party and the
country.
Tusk cannot be impressed and nor will other EU leaders. September will arrive
and it will be like February all over again, when Britain also had two months
left on the clock. The UK could crash out or be pleading once again for yet
another extension. Given such scenarios, who would want to press the fast
forward button?
*Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British
Understanding (CAABU). Twitter: @Doylech