English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese
Related, Global News & Editorials
For June 16/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.june16.20.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
When the Spirit of truth comes, he will guide you into all
the truth
John 16/12-15: “‘I still have many things to say to you, but you cannot bear
them now. When the Spirit of truth comes, he will guide you into all the truth;
for he will not speak on his own, but will speak whatever he hears, and he will
declare to you the things that are to come.He will glorify me, because he will
take what is mine and declare it to you. All that the Father has is mine. For
this reason I said that he will take what is mine and declare it to you.”The
word of God continued to spread; the number of the disciples increased greatly
in Jerusalem, and a great many of the priests became obedient to the faith.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 15-16/2020
MoPH confirms 18 new Covid-19 cases in Lebanon
President Aoun receives Aridi, heads Supreme Defense Council’s meeting
Berri meets Kubis, General Security's Ibrahim
Partial rotations of UNIFIL troops resume
Hariri receives Foucher
Army conducts raid operations in Tripoli, vicinity to arrest rioters
Lebanese, French friendship parliamentary committee discusses developments with
Foucher
Aoun Convenes Defense Council after Days of Violent Protests
Lebanon officials vow wave of arrests after violent protests
Aoun Urges 'Preemptive' Arrests, Diab Decries 'Organized Sabotage Campaign'
Diab Says 'Thugs Belong in Jail', Security Room to Oversee 'Dollar Mechanism'
Diab Says 'War on Corruption' Has Started
Report: Hizbullah Tells Hariri, Diab It's Not behind 'Scooter Rioters'
Dozens arrested after violent protests in Lebanon
U.N. Denies Reports of Withdrawal from Lebanon
Rai Says Politicians Impoverishing the Lebanese
Beirut's Restaurants on the Brink as Pandemic Compounds Financial Crisis
Either Dollars or Hezbollah/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/June,15/2020
New sanctions on Syria under Caesar Act might help save Lebanon/Makram Rabah/Al
Arabiya/June 15/2020T
Lebanon’s government: Too weak to fight corruption, too strong to be toppled/Hussain
Abdul-Hussain/Al ARabiya/Monday 15 June 2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
June 15-16/2020
EU Ministers Grapple with Pompeo as West's Rift Widens
Iran Says to Hold Summit with Russia, Turkey on Syria Soon
Iranians Reel from Economic Mafia, Currency Collapse
Iran: Signs of New Protests Against Rise in Prices
Iran refuses to partake in serious negotiations, says IAEA
Iran says extending UN Security Council arms embargo is a ‘red line’
U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Chief Asks Iran for Access to Disputed Sites
Former Iranian Official Dr. Hossein Samsami: Our Intervention In Syria, Iraq,
Lebanon, Afghanistan Is For Ideological Reasons, But We Also Stand To Gain
Economically
Former Iranian president Ahmadinejad says he has no interest in running for
president
Turkish Jets Drop Bombs on Kurdish Rebel Bases in Northern Iraq
Turkey Says Libya Talks with Russia Will Continue
Police fire tear gas on pro-Kurdish protesters in northwest Turkey
Turkish lira becomes unofficial currency in Syria as economy sinks
Turkish jets hit Kurdish militant targets in northern Iraq
Turkey eyes Libya military bases for lasting presence in Mediterranean: Source
Mass grave in Syria may explain disappearance of famous Italian Catholic priest
Police protest in Paris against lack of backing from the government
Israel OKs ‘Trump Heights’ Settlement in Golan
PA Unable to Pay Salaries for 2nd Consecutive Month
Stock Markets Slip on Fears of Second Virus Wave
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on June 15-16/2020
Why are there more wars in the Middle East than anywhere else?/Seth
J.Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/June 15/2020
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 1): Increasing the Assad Regime’s
Isolation/Dana Stroul and Katherine Bauer//The Washington Institute/June 15/2020
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 2): Pressuring Hezbollah in Lebanon/Hanin
Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/June 15/2020
Iranians desperately need a better Voice of America/Alireza Nader/Saeed
Ghasseminejad/FDD/June 15/2020
The IAEA Did Its Part Regarding Iran. Now It’s Time for the World to Act./Jacob
Nagel/Andrea Stricker/FDD/June 15/2020
After COVID-19, It’s Time for Washington to Embrace a Bolder Taiwan Strategy/The
time has come for a rethink of U.S. Taiwan policy./Craig Singleton/The
Diplomat/June 15/2020
Syria's Dictator Faces Renewed Challenges at All Levels/Jonathan Spyer/The
Jerusalem Post/June 15/2020
Today in History: Islam Ascends a European Field of Carrion/Raymond Ibrahim/June
15/2020
Erdogan’s Foreign Adventures May Prove Costly for Turkey/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq
Al-Awsat/June,15/2020
A Drop of Humility and Complicity/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/June,15/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published
on June 15-16/2020
MoPH confirms 18 new Covid-19 cases in Lebanon
NNA/June 15/2020
Lebanon has recorded 18 new Covid-19 cases within the last 24 hours, the
Ministry of Public Health said in a statement on Monday, raising the total
number of infected people in the country to 1464 .
President Aoun receives Aridi, heads Supreme Defense
Council’s meeting
NNA/June 15/2020
The Supreme Defense Council convened, today at 12:00am at Baabda Palace, in a
session chaired by President of the republic, General Michel Aoun, and decided
to intensify coordination and cooperation between all security apparatuses, and
exchange information to avoid any sabotage acts, under the pretext of rightful
living demands. The Council also decided to strictly deter all those who violate
security and order. In addition, it was also decided to assign ministers of:
Finance, Energy, and Economy, to submit the necessary proposal to the Cabinet
regarding consumed fuel quantities, and ways to address the imbalance between
demand and supply, in the market.
The meeting was attended by Prime Minister, Hassan Diab, his Deputy and National
Defense Minister, Zeina Akar, and Ministers of: Foreign and Expatriates, Nassif
Hitti, Finance, Ghazi Wazni, Interior and Municipalities, Mohammed Fahmy,
Economy and Trade, Raoul Nehme, and Justice, Mary-Claude Najm.
Also attending the meeting were: Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, Director
of General Security, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, Director of Internal Security
Forces, Major General Imad Othman, Director of State Security, Major General
Tony Saliba, Secretary-General of the Supreme Defense Council, Major General
Mahmoud Al-Asmar, Cassation Attorney General, Judge Ghassan Ouweidat, Government
Commissioner to the Military Court in charge, Judge Fadi Akiki, Head of the
Supreme Council of Customs, Retired Brigadier Assaad Toufaili, Director General
of Customs, Badri Daher, Director of Army Intelligence, Brigadier General
Antoine Mansour, Director of Information Branch in General Security, Brigadier
Manh Sawaya, Head of ISF Information Branch, Brigadier Khaled Hammoud, Deputy
Director General of State Security, Brigadier Samir Sannan, General Director of
the Presidency, Dr. Antoine Choucair, and the Security and Military Adviser of
the President, Brigadier Paul Matar.
Statement of Major General Al-Asmar:
“At the invitation of His Excellency, President Michel Aoun, the Supreme Defense
Council held a meeting today 15-6-2020 at the Presidential Palace, to discuss
security developments and follow-up on measures approved by the Supreme Defense
Council, related to land border illegitimate crossings.
The session was attended by the Prime Minister, his Deputy and National Defense
Minister, Foreign and Expatriates Minister, Finance Minister, Interior Minister,
Economy and Trade Minister, and Justice Minister.
Also attending were: Army Commander, Director of General Security, Director of
Internal Security Forces, Director of State Security, Secretary-General of the
Supreme Defense Council, Cassation Attorney General, Government Commissioner to
the Military Court in charge, Head of the Supreme Council of Customs, Customs
Director General, Director of Army Intelligence, Director of Information Branch
in the General Security, Head of ISF Information Branch, Deputy Director General
of State Security, Director General of the Lebanese Presidency, and the
President’s Security and Military Adviser.
The President began the meeting by referring to recent riots which took place in
numerous regions, especially Beirut and Tripoli, some of which took a sectarian
background, in addition to targeting military and security forces with direct
assault.
His Excellency said: “Such incidents caused widespread discontent which imposes
strict measures to prevent their recurrence in addition to of arrests which
include planners, agitators and implementers. After today, it will not be
allowed to renew such sabotage acts which affect the prestige of the state and
foreshadows serious complications”.
The President asserted the necessity of re-adopting pre-emptive operations to
arrest planners and instigators of sabotaging actions, to reduce these events
and prevent their incurrence. President Aoun then condemned the attack on
military and security forces, noting the efforts exerted by these forces against
riots.
Afterwards, Prime Minister Diab considered that “What is happening in the
country is not ordinary. It is clear that there is a decision somewhere,
internal or external, or perhaps both together to tamper with civil peace and
threaten security and stability”.
“What is happening carries numerous dangerous messages, and it is no longer
acceptable that perpetrators remain anonymous, and there are no arrested
individuals, agitators and executors. This is a very dangerous game which must
end. Vandalism, destruction and intimidation of the army and security forces and
assault on state institutions must end. What is happening? People ask about the
absence of the state. I know that the military and security apparatuses are
under great pressure and I know that there are many causalities in their ranks.
But continuing in this current situation is no longer acceptable. Thorns take
possession of streets and destroy the country and its institutions, and the
state remains watching? Why? These are not protests against hunger or against
economic conditions. This is systematic sabotage. Hence, there must be a firm
and resolute decision to address this growing situation, which is increasing and
moving from a region to another” PM Diab continued.
“Those who incite, those who fund and those who manage these groups, from inside
and outside, must be arrested. If we do not do this, the state itself will lose
its prestige and things will get out of hand, then the country will head towards
the unknown. Let us act quickly!” Prime Minister Diab concluded.
After discussing conditions, events and security developments by the leaders of
the security and military agencies, it was decided to intensify coordination and
cooperation between these agencies and exchange information between them to
avoid any sabotage acts under the pretext of rightful demands for life and
strict non-tolerance with the violators of security and order.
The Council also discussed the consumed quantities of hydrocarbons in the local
market and ways to address the imbalance between demand and supply. The
ministers of finance, energy, water, economy and trade were tasked to submit the
necessary proposal to the Cabinet.
The council kept its decisions secret in accordance with the law”.
Former Minister Al-Aridi:
President Aoun received former Minister, Ghazi Al-Aridi, delegated from the
Progressive Socialist Party Chief, Walid Joumblat, and discussed with him
current political developments and the situation in the “Jabal” region, in
addition to the necessity of cooperation between all political parties in this
delicate stage of Lebanese history.
Former Minister Al-Sarraf:
President Aoun also received former Minister, Yaacoub Al-Sarraf, and deliberated
with him the needs of the “Akkar” region, especially road conditions and
development projects, in addition to the agricultural situation.
The meeting also dealt with economic conditions, and implications on “Akkar”
region.—Presidential Press Office
Berri meets Kubis, General Security's Ibrahim
NNA/June 15/2020
Speaker of the House, Nabih Berri, on Monday welcomed at his Ein Teeneh
residence United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis, with whom
he reviewed the general situation and the most recent developments on the local
level. General Director of Lebanon's General Security, Major General Abbas
Ibrahim, also paid Berri a visit, after which he confirmed having received
information about a plan to attack Rafic Hariri International Airport. "We have
relayed this information to those concerned," he added.
Regarding the formation of an economic security committee to tackle the
country's financial crisis, especially the hiking exchange rate of the LPB
against the US dollar, Ibrahim said that the aim of the committee was to
endeavor to stabilize the exchange rate of the US dollar. "We have established
an operations room at the General Security's General Directorate to follow up on
the traffickers of US dollars in the country," he added.
Partial rotations of UNIFIL troops resume
NNA/June 15/2020
Following suspension with some exceptions by Secretary-General António Guterres
in April 2020 of all rotations, repatriations and deployments of uniformed
personnel to mitigate the transmission of COVID-19 Coronavirus, UNIFIL today
started partial resumption of its troops’ rotations while following all
established national and international protocols.
The UNIFIL rotations follow the temporary and extraordinary transitional
measures announced by Secretary-General Guterres through a letter to Member
States on 5 June 2020. These temporary measures with a rigorous and effective
quarantine regime last for six months, with the next review due in October 2020.
The rotations are based on a rigorous quarantine regime and in accordance with
WHO guidelines and Lebanese Government policies. These transitional measures
will continue to be guided by four central objectives: to protect UN personnel
and their capacity to perform critical operations; to help contain and mitigate
the spread of the virus within Lebanon and globally, ensuring that UN personnel
are not a contagion vector; to support national authorities in their response to
COVID-19, as requested and possible; and to help protect vulnerable communities
and continue to deliver on our mandates.
“I would like to reiterate that UNIFIL personnel will continue to strictly
follow the robust precautionary measures that have been in place since the very
beginning of the virus outbreak in order to prevent its spread,” said UNIFIL
Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General Stefano Del Col. “Such
measures will apply to all of our personnel: those living in UN positions and
communities, those returning home, newly incoming personnel and those returning
from leave.” All the precautionary measures and decisions on this issue have
been coordinated in close consultation with the Lebanese authorities.
Consistent with the precautionary measures required by WHO health guidelines,
during the rotation period all uniformed personnel shall be required to undergo
a quarantine period in their home country before deploying to Lebanon, and also
in the mission area, upon their arrival in Lebanon.
UNIFIL is making all the appropriate arrangements for the secure transportation
of the incoming units and personnel to their designated quarantine facility
inside our UNIFIL bases in south Lebanon. UNIFIL will ensure that the quarantine
measures are effective and strictly observed by all personnel. UNIFIL personnel
continue to carry out operational activities in support of the Mission’s mandate
in accordance with the UN Security Council resolution 11701. --UNIFIL Press
Release
Hariri receives Foucher
NNA/June 15/2020
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri received this afternoon at the Center House
the French Ambassador to Lebanon Bruno Foucher, in the presence of former
Minister Ghattas Khoury and Hariri’s diplomatic Advisor Dr Basem Shabb.
Discussions focused on the latest local and regional developments and the
bilateral relations. Earlier, Hariri received a delegation from the “My
nationality is my dignity” campaign, headed by Mustapha Shaar. Shaar said after
the meeting: “We were honored to visit Premier Hariri after several appeals that
we made to the state to help the children of Lebanese mothers married to
foreigners, in all fields, especially health and social, in light of the corona
pandemic. We also discussed with him the issue of the Lebanese mother
transmitting her nationality to her children and the law cancelling the work
permit for children of Lebanese mothers”.-- Hariri Press Office
Army conducts raid operations in Tripoli, vicinity to
arrest rioters
NNA/June 15/2020
The Lebanese Army units carried out on Monday raid operations in the city of
Tripoli and its vicinity to arrest rioters who were involved in attacks on
troops, cafes, restaurants, bakeries and public and private properties in the
city and Al-Mina overnight, NNA correspondent reported. The army ran patrols in
the neighborhoods and streets of the city to counter any attempt to disturb
security.
Lebanese, French friendship parliamentary committee
discusses developments with Foucher
NNA/June 15/2020
The Lebanese-French friendship parliamentary committee, headed by MP Simon Abi
Ramia, on Monday discussed with French Ambassador to Lebanon, Bruno Foucher, the
most recent local and regional developments.
Abi Ramia said that the meeting mainly focused on French-Lebanese relations, as
well as on France's role amidst the dire economic situation.
The lawmaker relayed the French Ambassador's affirmation of his country's
unwavering position vis-à-vis Lebanon's sovereignty and independence.
He reiterated that according to the recommendations of CEDRE conference, Lebanon
had been called forth to carry out reforms, "which have not seen the light to
date.""The state must undertake the necessary reforms in response to the demands
of the international community," Abi Ramia added.
Aoun Convenes Defense Council after Days of Violent Protests
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 15/2020
President Michel Aoun on Monday convened the country's Higher Defense Council
after days of angry protests over a deepening economic crisis.
Hundreds of demonstrators clashed with security forces at the weekend in Beirut
and Tripoli, after the national currency collapsed amid the worst financial
crisis since Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war. Relative calm returned on Sunday
evening, with protesters holding a peaceful rally in Beirut while dozens marched
to a central square in the northern city of Tripoli, AFP reporters said.
That came after three nights of violence in which demonstrators, angered by
sky-rocketing prices and the government's apparent inability to tackle the
crisis, had blocked highways and scuffled with security forces. In Tripoli,
young men attacked banks and shops and threw rocks at security forces who
responded with rubber bullets and tear gas. Medical services reported dozens of
injured.
The latest wave of demonstrations come almost eight months after the start of a
mass protest movement over Lebanon's crumbling economy and perceived official
corruption. The Lebanese lira plumbed new lows on Thursday, hitting 5,000 to the
dollar for the first time.The next day authorities vowed to pump greenbacks into the market to limit the
rout. A Beirut money-changer told AFP on Monday that the dollar was selling for
4,200 liras. Lebanon's economic crisis, which has led to soaring unemployment
and forced the country to default on its sovereign debt for the first time, has
sparked an outpouring of anger at a political elite seen as incompetent and
nepotistic. The government has put together a reform package to relaunch the
economy and is in talks with the International Monetary Fund to attract
desperately needed financial aid. Inflation is expected to top 50 percent this
year, in a country where 45 percent of the population live under the poverty
line and over a third of the workforce are out of jobs.
The economy has been hit hard by years of war in neighboring Syria.
On Saturday in Tripoli, protesters blocked trucks suspected of smuggling food
products into Syria. But the U.N. World Food Program in statement said it had
sent the convoy of 39 trucks carrying food aid bound for the war-torn country.
Lebanon officials vow wave of arrests after violent protests
AFP/ Al Arabiya English/June 15/ 2020
Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun was due to convene the country’s top security
council on Monday after days of angry protests over a deepening economic crisis.
Hundreds of demonstrators clashed with security forces at the weekend across the
Mediterranean nation whose currency has collapsed amid the worst financial
crisis since Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war. Relative calm returned on Sunday
evening, with protesters holding a peaceful rally in Beirut while dozens marched
to a central square in the northern city of Tripoli, AFP reporters said. For all
the latest headlines follow our Google News channel online or via the app.
That came after three nights of violence in which demonstrators, angered by
sky-rocketing prices and the government’s apparent inability to tackle the
crisis, had blocked highways and scuffled with security forces. In Tripoli,
young men attacked banks and shops and threw rocks at security forces who
responded with rubber bullets and tear gas. Medical services reported dozens of
injured.
The latest wave of demonstrations come almost eight months after the start of a
mass protest movement over Lebanon’s crumbling economy and perceived official
corruption. The Lebanese lira plumbed new lows on Thursday, hitting 5,000 to the
dollar for the first time. The next day authorities vowed to pump greenbacks
into the market to limit the rout. A Beirut money-changer told AFP on Monday
that the dollar was selling for 4,200 liras.
Aoun’s office announced he was due to discuss the latest developments with the
country’s top security body including ministers and military officials on Monday
afternoon. “President Aoun will convene the High Defense Council on Monday
afternoon to study the security situation after the latest developments,” his
office said on Twitter. Lebanon’s economic crisis, which has led to soaring
unemployment and forced the country to default on its sovereign debt for the
first time, has sparked an outpouring of anger at a political elite seen as
incompetent and nepotistic.
The government has put together a reform package to relaunch the economy and is
in talks with the International Monetary Fund to attract desperately needed
financial aid. Inflation is expected to top 50 percent this year, in a country
where 45 percent of the population live under the poverty line and over a third
of the workforce are out of jobs. The economy has been hit hard by years of war
in neighboring Syria. On Saturday in Tripoli, protesters blocked trucks
suspected of smuggling food products into Syria. But the UN World Food Programme
in statement said it had sent the convoy of 39 trucks carrying food aid bound
for the war-torn country.
Aoun Urges 'Preemptive' Arrests, Diab Decries 'Organized Sabotage Campaign'
Naharnet/June 15/2020
President Michel Aoun on Monday stressed the need for “preemptive operations to
arrest plotters and instigators of acts of vandalization to curb them and
prevent their recurrence,” following days of violent protests in Beirut and
Tripoli.
“The acts of sabotage that occurred recently, some of which took a sectarian
turn, in addition to the systematic attacks on security and military forces, are
no longer acceptable and can lead to dangerous ramifications,” Aoun warned
during a Higher Defense Council meeting in Baabda.
Speaking at the same meeting, Prime Minister Hassan Diab lamented that “thugs
are violating the streets and destroying the country and its institutions while
the state is standing idly by.”“These are not protests against hunger and the
economic situation. This is an organized sabotage campaign and there should be a
decisive and firm decision to confront this growing phenomenon. Those
instigating, funding and running it must be detained,” Diab urged.
He added: “What’s happening in the country is abnormal. It is clear that there
is a domestic or foreign decision, perhaps both, to tamper with civil peace and
threaten security stability. What’s happening carries multiple and alarming
messages and it is no longer acceptable to keep the perpetrators unknown.”
A statement issued after the meeting said the conferees agreed that
“coordination and cooperation must be intensified among the security agencies.”
“They should exchange information to avoid any acts of sabotage under the guise
of legitimate social demands and they must not be lenient with those violating
security and order,” the statement added.
Diab Says 'Thugs Belong in Jail', Security Room to Oversee 'Dollar Mechanism'
Naharnet/June 15/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Monday underscored that “thugs belong in jail,”
referring to those who carried out acts of rioting in Beirut and Tripoli over
the past days. Diab was speaking during a financial-security meeting that he
chaired at the Grand Serail to “follow up on the current security situations and
control the U.S. dollar exchange rate,” the National News Agency said.
Describing the acts of vandalization in Beirut and Tripoli as a “disaster,” the
premier warned that “what happened undermines all the foundations of the state.”
“I will not tolerate at all this violation of streets, people’s properties and
the state’s properties, or the attempt to undermine security stability,” Diab
underscored.
He added that he insists that security agencies and the judiciary should seek
the arrest of “any person who took part in this crime, whether in Beirut,
Tripoli or any other region.” “If these people don’t get arrested, there won’t
be a meaning for the presence of the entire state. Thugs’ job is vandalization
and they belong in jail. Period,” Diab went on to say. On the financial front,
the PM urged “a complete and integrated security and judicial probe” into the
dollar exchange rate fluctuations. “The presence of a crime without criminals is
unacceptable… and I’m personally convinced and I have certain information that
what happened was deliberate,” Diab said. The conferees meanwhile discussed the
mechanism that was approved by Cabinet with the aim of gradually lowering the
dollar exchange rate, agreeing to “set up an operations room at the General
Directorate of General Security to follow up on the issue.”
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh for his part said that the central bank is
committed to pumping dollars into the market, as it was underlined that licensed
money exchange shops should abide by the regulations of their union.“The central bank should supply them with dollars to prevent the fall of these
dollars into the hands of currency manipulators or their smuggling to abroad,”
the conferees said.
Diab Says 'War on Corruption' Has Started
Naharnet/June 15/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Monday declared “war on corruption” during a
meeting with the country’s supervisory bodies.
“Today the whole world is asking Lebanon to combat corruption as a precondition
for helping us. In the current situation, we are accused that we have not
achieved anything, but this issue has become on the table and it has become the
government’s top priority,” Diab said.
“That’s why I today declare the beginning of the war against corruption. This is
a long battle, and it will be difficult, and we will face accusations, treason
allegations, slurs and political campaigns. It’s okay, we have grown accustomed
to them, since the very first day in which I was tasked to form the government,”
the premier added. He noted that corrupts will try to protect themselves through
“political, religious, sectarian, regional and familial covers.”
“All of this will not deter us from continuing this battle. We will fight in it
until the end and the Lebanese are with us in this battle,” Diab went on to say.
Report: Hizbullah Tells Hariri, Diab It's Not behind
'Scooter Rioters'
Naharnet/June 15/2020
Political contacts were intensified over the past two days to prevent any
descent into security chaos, a media report said.
“Ex-PM Saad Hariri communicated with the leaderships of Hizbullah and AMAL
Movement, expressing his anger, after he thought that the masses took to the
streets at partisan orders,” al-Akhbar newspaper, which is close to Hizbullah,
reported on Monday. “Hariri stressed that he cannot tolerate such scenes in the
capital and asked about the reason behind the sudden explosion. But he was told
by the leaderships of the two parties that Hizbullah and AMAL were not involved,
that there was no partisan decision on any street action, that the protesters do
not belong to a certain sect, and that they came from several regions,” the
daily said. The leaderships of Hizbullah and AMAL “emphasized that they were not
covering any violator” and that Hariri should communicate with the army chief so
that “the necessary measures could be taken,” al-Akhbar added. Hizbullah and
AMAL in turn coordinated with the army and started implementing measures in
their strongholds, where their neighborhood officials deployed groups on
entrances to prevent the exit of any swarms of motorcycles while metallic
barriers were placed on some exits, the daily said. Diab meanwhile was “rattled”
by the scenes of mayhem and in turn communicated with Hizbullah’s leadership to
inquire whether there was an intention to stage a “coup” against the government,
especially that “since Friday noon, some sides loyal to the March 8 camp had
started leaking information about a resignation decision.”“But Hizbullah anew
assures that the protesters did not belong to a single region or a single sect,
stressing that it is keen on the government because the current situation cannot
withstand vacuum,” al-Akhbar said.
Dozens arrested after violent protests in Lebanon
The National/June 15/2020
Anti-government protesters wave a Lebanese national flag while standing on a
concrete wall that was installed by the authorities to block a road leading to
the parliament building during ongoing protests against the Lebanese government
in Beirut, Lebanon, Sunday, June 14, 2020. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
The Lebanese army on Monday said it had arrested dozens of suspects for
"vandalism", after days of protests triggered by a plunging local currency amid
the worst economic crisis in decades.
Hundreds of protesters clashed with security forces at the weekend across the
Mediterranean nation, after days of resurgent demonstrations against a ruling
class deemed corrupt and impotent in tackling the spiralling crisis.
"The total number of arrests made by military intelligence between 11 and 15
June in different Lebanese regions is 36 people for acts of vandalism", damaging
public and private property and attacking security forces, the army said.
The official National News Agency reported that the army had launched a series
of raids in the northern port of Tripoli, Lebanon's second city.
Over the course of three nights, young men attacked banks and shops and threw
rocks at security forces in Tripoli who responded with rubber bullets and tear
gas. Medical services reported dozens of wounded.
They were angered by a steep drop in the Lebanese pound, the sky-rocketing price
of food and what they perceive to be the government's failure to reign in the
country's economic collapse.
Relative calm returned on Sunday evening, with protesters holding a peaceful
rally in the capital Beirut, while dozens marched to a central square in
Tripoli.
The army's announcement of arrests came after President Michel Aoun on Monday
discussed the protests with the country's top security body including ministers
and military officials. "Such acts of vandalism will not be allowed after
today," Mr Aoun said after the meeting of the Higher Defence Council.
Mr Aoun called for "a wave of arrests, including of those who planned and
carried out" such acts and ordered authorities to beef up "pre-emptive"
operations to prevent further violence, a statement said.
Prime Minister Hassan Diab also condemned acts of "sabotage" committed by
"thugs" in Beirut and Tripoli.
"Thugs have no other motive than vandalism, and they should be thrown in jail,
period," said a statement released by his office.
On Saturday in Tripoli, protesters blocked trucks suspected of smuggling food
products into Syria. But the UN World Food Programme said it had itself sent the
convoy of 39 trucks carrying food aid bound for the war-torn country.
People who blocked the passage of "trucks carrying food staples on behalf of
international agencies" were among those arrested, the army said on Monday.
The latest wave of demonstrations come almost eight months after the start of a
mass protest movement over Lebanon's crumbling economy and corruption.
The Lebanese pound had plumbed new lows on Thursday, hitting 5,000 to the dollar
for the first time.
The next day, authorities vowed to pump greenbacks into the market to limit the
rout. A Beirut money-changer told AFP on Monday that the dollar was selling for
up to 4,400 pounds. Mr Diab on Monday called for an investigation into the rapid
devaluation of the Lebanese pound, calling the fluctuation a "deliberate" act
committed by currency manipulators.
Lebanon's economic crisis has led to soaring unemployment - over a third of the
workforce is out of work - and in March the country defaulted on its sovereign
debt for the first time.
The government has put together a reform package to relaunch the economy and is
in talks with the International Monetary Fund to access desperately needed
financial aid. Inflation is expected to top 50 per cent this year, in a country
where 45 per cent of the population lives under the poverty line.
The economy has been hit hard by years of war in neighbouring Syria.
U.N. Denies Reports of Withdrawal from Lebanon
Naharnet/June 15/2020
The United Nations on Monday denied reports referring to possible U.N.
withdrawal from Lebanon, stressing that it is not planning to "stop its
operations" or "evacuate its staff" from the country. "In response to
speculative stories referring to possible U.N. withdrawal from Lebanon in some
media outlets in the past days, the United Nations considers it necessary to
deny such unsubstantiated speculations," the U.N. said in an English-language
statement. It added: "The U.N. is not planning to stop its operations and
evacuate its staff from Lebanon. On the contrary, the U.N. support, operations
and activities continue, expand and accelerate regardless the challenges created
by the COVID-19 pandemic." "The U.N. in Lebanon is committed to continue
supporting Lebanon and its people also during this challenging period," it
stressed.The denial comes days after protesters in the northern city of Tripoli
intercepted a convoy of 39 truckloads of food aid destined for Syria. The United
Nations World Food Program said the convoy belonged to it.
Rai Says Politicians Impoverishing the Lebanese
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 15 June, 2020
Lebanon’s Maronite Patriarch Beshara Boutros Rai accused politicians of
impoverishing, starving and humiliating the Lebanese people, while confiscating
their money. Speaking at a Sunday Mass in Bkirki, Rai said he would support the
government on condition of listening to the people and introducing the necessary
reforms. Rai called on politicians to stop sending to demonstrations "saboteurs"
who were attacking businesses and shops, distorting the face of the capital, and
tarnish the national revolution. He urged the government to “confront these
saboteurs and limit their evils in order to prevent the security situation from
slipping toward sedition.”Rai stressed that the Maronite Church would never
depart from two complementary constants at the national level: the first,
preserving legitimacy, and the second, embracing the people. "We will not allow
anyone to eliminate the prestigious state of Lebanon, which celebrates the
centenary of its foundation, but rather we will work with people of goodwill to
renew Lebanon's face with its identity and mission towards the second
centenary,” he said. Last week, hundreds of Lebanese protesters took to the
streets to voice outrage over the government’s handling of a deep economic
crisis, with security forces firing tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse
rock-throwing demonstrators. However, the protest turned violent as supporters
of Hezbollah clashed with some demonstrators who were demanding that the
Iran-backed group disarm.
Prime Minister Hassan Diab took office in January with the support of Hezbollah
and its allies after the previous government was toppled by the protests that
erupted last October. Lebanon’s economic woes have reached new depths in recent
months. The pound currency has lost more than half of its value on the parallel
market, prices have soared, and companies dealing with the double blow of the
coronavirus have axed jobs.
Beirut's Restaurants on the Brink as Pandemic Compounds
Financial Crisis
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 15 June, 2020
Beirut and its restaurants have weathered wars, bombing campaigns and
assassinations, and pride themselves on always bouncing back.
But this time is different, say Beirut bar and restaurant owners, who fear that
a devastating financial crisis, compounded by the global coronavirus pandemic,
may finally be their undoing. At Le Pecheur, a 20-year-old seafood restaurant, a
veteran waiter stood at the entrance, armed with a faceshield and antiseptic
spray, on the first weekend after the Lebanese government lifted restrictions on
June 1. There were no customers. "I have been through the civil war as a
child...We saw dead people and shells exploding, but wherever you went, no one
ever said they had no money or they can't afford to eat," Reuters quoted Ahmad
Kassem, 49, Le Pecheur's owner, as saying. "Now, we have people around us with
empty stomachs. No work, no money." Since late last year, Lebanon's local
currency has lost more than 60 percent of its value, as prices soar. The crisis
has slashed jobs, fueled unrest and pushed the government to seek aid it badly
needs from the IMF. Hundreds of restaurants, cafes and bars have closed in a
country where the service industry was long a pillar of the economy and employed
a big chunk of the workforce. Meanwhile waiters at Baron, a restaurant that can
seat 200 people in a hip district of Beirut, served a lone table. "We're living
day by day, we're trying our best to plan ahead but every plan we have can
change in a matter of seconds," said Baron's founder Etienne Sabbagh, 37. He
said industry leaders had only received empty promises of help from the
government as banks cut access to cash and credit facilities.
Either Dollars or Hezbollah
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/June,15/2020
The many questions regarding the Lebanese situation have faded away and been
reduced to a single crude question: dollars or Hezbollah?
Those who choose dollars seem to speak an economy-focused rhetoric that is
affected by the regional and international balances of power; then, their
rhetoric became focused on the declining living standards and the pressing need
to resolve them: the people are going hungry and being humiliated. In both
cases, they speak a universal language. The whole world, including Iran, wants
dollars, and the whole world fears famines and tries to prevent them.
Those who choose Hezbollah adopt a populist and accusatory rhetoric directed at
“the dollars’ agents” and “the dollars’ slaves”, accompanied by contrasting
“baseness” of the “dollarlists” to the “divinity” of fate and the cause. The
conclusion always takes the form of “we would rather die on our feet than live
on our knees”.
The job of central bank governor Riad Salameh, the central bank and the banks is
precisely to draw a curtain over this question and conceal it. Those
aforementioned are guilty, no doubt about it, but their crime is closer to that
of carrying out orders than giving them.
In fact, the Lebanese have never been faced with this question, and with such
sharpness, before. In the past, they had the luxury of enjoying a supply of
dollars as declamations were being made about the struggle against imperialism
or something equivalent to this. Today, this reconciliation is all but
impossible.
With the first wave of radicalism that independent Lebanon faced and confronted,
i.e Nasserism of the 1950s and 1960s, Lebanon was the Arabs’ bank and the home
to the headquarters of the Western companies in the Middle East. As for
Nasserism itself, it was satisfied in 1958 with sending some rifles and machine
guns to Lebanon, without possessing an armed military organization whose
strength exceeded that of the Lebanese army. In the meantime, Egyptian-American
relations were not severed until 1967. In the last year of Dwight Eisenhower’s
term (1959), "wheat diplomacy" between Washington and Cairo began.
In Lebanon in particular, the two capitals managed to reach a settlement that
placed the army chief, Fuad Chihab, at the helm. With John Kennedy, things
improved further, especially since both sides wanted to fight communism and Abd
al-Karim Qasim in Iraq. 904 million tons of wheat were shipped to Egypt under
preferential arrangements between 1960 and 1965, worth $731 million. Cairo paid
for them in Egyptian pounds without being required to provide a hard currency.
Reliance on American wheat, which amounted to half of Egyptian domestic
consumption, did not prevent the escalation of verbal attacks against the United
States. Thus, the dollar and the struggle against it managed to coexist in
Lebanon, with a degree of mutual reassurance, side by side.
With the Palestinian resistance which represented the second wave of radicalism,
huge sums of money were poured into Lebanon. Because the Palestinian resistance
was obsessed with getting the US to engage in dialogue, it made sure not to go
too far in its tampering with Lebanese affairs. When it went too far in 1976,
Hafez al-Assad, in the only useful action that he carried out throughout his
life, deterred it. Before all of this, the Palestine Liberation Organization
facilitated the evacuation of American citizens from Lebanon after the outbreak
of the war in 1975. It provided guards for the American citizens who remained in
it. It exchanged intelligence, through Ali Hassan Salameh and others, with the
CIA. On the whole, relations were positive during Jimmy Carter’s era
(1976-1980), as his Foreign Minister Cyrus Vance seemed very enthusiastic about
the PLO issuing a statement that enables it to participate in the Geneva
Conference for peace (it was not issued at the time. It was issued later).
The Palestinian resistance and the dollar were and continued to be two peas in a
pod. With Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait and the PLO’s support for him,
dollars supply stopped and, subsequently, the resistance itself stopped.
“Reactionary” Lebanon did not present any exception to this “revolutionary”
formula.
The third radical wave, with Hezbollah, resembled the previous two waves during
the 1989-2005 period between the Taif Agreement and the assassination of Rafik
Hariri. The reconstruction and resistance duo secured accommodation for both the
dollar and Hezbollah. The late prime minister, counting on the magic of money,
was gripped with a fantasy that partly contributed to his killing: Lebanon would
be for Syria what Hong Kong was to China. Since the 2005 crime, things have
gradually been moving in a direction of the dollar and the resistance being
pulled further and further apart. This peaked with the economic collapse of the
party's regional sponsors, the Iranian and Syrian regimes. Scarcity hindered the
former's ability to send dollars to Lebanon, and the latter is, it seems,
withdrawing some of the small amounts left from Lebanon. On top of that, Donald
Trump, who looks down on Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Carter's approach, endowed the
dollar with military powers, thinking that this is the only kind of weapon that
the soldiers of resistance understand. The dollar is his instrument that his
enemies, in Tehran, Syria and Hezbollah, are not allowed to put their hands on.
This is the principle of absolute war, and he is applying this principle to the
letter. Regardless of the results, which are likely to be painful for all of us,
the Lebanese may find themselves, for the first time in their modern history,
before a burning question: Do we eat or fight?
New sanctions on Syria under Caesar Act might help save
Lebanon
Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/June 15/2020T
In Lebanon, there is very little debate today on the streets beyond the exchange
rate and the value of the local currency which is spiraling downward, making
June 17, the date the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act goes into effect,
more ominous.
The Caesar Act that will place new sanctions on the Bashar Al-Assad regime in
Syria is certainly not a novel invention as it joins tens of similar sanctions,
yet it clearly identifies his regime as a criminal one and punishes anyone who
collaborates with it.
Lebanese seem to have missed this fact as they essentially believe that the
implementation of the Caesar Act is merely a first step toward the Trump
Administration’s adoption of a new set of sanctions that directly targets
Lebanon. The chances of these sanctions affecting Lebanon are not really
farfetched, as Lebanon for many years has been fully engulfed by Iran and
Hezbollah, which uses Lebanon’s economy to keep the Assad regime afloat.
In this respect, the question begs how will the Caesar Act influence Lebanon, or
what remains of it?
The Lebanese and Syrian economies have always been intertwined in one way or
another, but since the start of the Syrian revolution, the Assad regime and its
allies – mainly Hezbollah – have used Lebanon as a center to avoid sanctions,
and more importantly to gain access to hard currency and key provisions. The
effect of this process has always been curbed by the fact that the international
community, as well as the Arab Gulf states, kept subsidizing Lebanon’s economy
in the hopes that its leaders would sooner than later regain their sanity and
oppose the abduction of their country – something that has not yet transpired,
forcing Lebanon into total economic isolation.
As a first step, at least theoretically, the Caesar Act will restrict the vast
cross-border smuggling operations of petroleum products, medication and other
supplies, many of which are subsidized by Lebanon’s almost non-existent dollar
reserves. With or without the Caesar Act, the Hassan Diab government in Lebanon
will do nothing to crack down on these smuggling operations as they will not
dare to cut the lifeline of the Assad regime and Hezbollah – the main parties
responsible for the smuggling.
The Caesar Act, as it was designed, aims to make any association with the Syrian
regime as toxic as possible and thus deter any foreign investment from entering
Syria. Specifically, it is designed also to deter the reconstruction of Syria
without the presence of a political settlement supported by the United States
that the Russians would also be able to uphold, while simultaneously limiting
and ultimately removing Iran’s influence over Syria, which seems highly unlikely
at this stage.
For the majority of Lebanese who do not fall under the categories listed above,
the Caesar Act is a not a punitive tool but rather one that protects their
country and its economy from the political class and Hezbollah that rob from
them and share it with their counterpart in Syria. The Caesar Act and many of
the other sanctions that will be passed on these corrupt figures will perhaps
give the Lebanese a fighting chance and help them protect their rapidly
depleting dollar reserve which they will need to escape famine.
At one time Lebanese merchants, who do not necessarily support the Assad regime
nor its allies, were free to trade with the regime and were paid in Syrian lira,
which they then brought to Lebanon to exchange for dollars. Under the act, if
merchants or any Lebanese entity wish to make transactions with any of their
Syrian counterparts, this process should not benefit the Syrian regime or help
it in carrying out its criminal acts.
Yet if the normal Lebanese citizen abides by the provisions of the Caesar Act,
there is no indication that the political elite and their various business
interests would do so. The Lebanese political elite, some of which are openly
staunch opponents of Assad, own or share in a wide array of business ventures
that have actively involved in illicit and legitimate trade with the Syrian
regime, making them millions of dollars. After June 17, this will no longer be
legal.
If these powerful sectarian chiefs continue profiting from Assad and his
criminal organization, they will not only be accessories in war crimes, but they
will be inviting direct sanctions on themselves and all Lebanese.
With their country occupied by forces of corruption and tyranny, the Lebanese
are better off with the international community in their corner and for tools,
such as the Caesar Act, to be implemented that will help them liberate their
country from the domestic and foreign forces they once called friends.
*Makram Rabah is a lecturer at the American University of Beirut, Department of
History.
Lebanon’s government: Too weak to fight corruption, too
strong to be toppled
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Al ARabiya/Monday 15 June 2020
Lebanon is close to depleting its Foreign Currency (FX) reserves. National
imports will drop to a trickle. Technology will start becoming outdated. Soon
enough, pictures from Lebanon will look like those from Cuba: People driving old
cars and living in shabby buildings, as if the country has been frozen in time.
Predicting the precarious situation, and in a bid to ration its reserves, the
central bank unpegged the Lebanese Lira from the US dollar in September, after
which the national currency started depreciating quickly. And because national
debt had already crossed $80 billion when Lebanon defaulted on its $1.2 billion
Eurobond, borrowing to replenish reserves became impossible.
The last time Lebanon’s central bank posted its reserve levels, they stood at
$29 billion. But in March, Nasser Saidi, a former deputy governor of the bank,
told The Financial Times that the bank’s “usable reserves had fallen to $3
billion to $4 billion.”
To curb inflation, Lebanon’s central bank maintained its official exchange rate
at LL1500 to the dollar, thus creating two rates: One imaginary official rate,
and the other real and set by currency exchange shops.
In step with its usual political maneuvers, Beirut decided to blame everyone for
the crisis except the big elephant in the room: The Hezbollah militia. By
keeping Lebanon in a state of perpetual war, Hezbollah repelled investments,
forcing the state to borrow at high interest, operating a Ponzi Scheme, to fund
itself. Eventually, money ran out, and the economy started shrinking.
Instead of removing obstacles to econmoic growth, the government cracked down on
exchangers, accused them of profiteering, and shut down many of their shops. A
third exchange rate thus emerged.
With the peg gone and dollars unavailable, importers of basic staples, such as
wheat and oil, were forced to hike their prices in the local currency. But
Lebanon has a fixed official price for bread and energy. Importers simply
stopped importing, creating an acute crisis that threatened an immediate
collapse of the social order. Then the Lebanese government made the Central Bank
sell foreign currency to importers of basic staples at the official rate,
technically subsidizing these imports.
Lebanon’s subsidy of bread and oil created a gap in prices with neighboring
Syria, which had run out of FX reserves long before. Hezbollah and other illicit
traders saw an opportunity in smuggling Lebanon’s cheaper oil and wheat into
Syria, where they sell them at little less than market price, collecting
handsome profits. Illicit trade also eased Syria’s shortages, which prompted the
Syrian government to lobby its Lebanese allies to turn a blind eye to smuggling
operations.
As Lebanon and Syria lived off the remaining Lebanese FX reserves, their
national currencies started having similar exchange rates. After US sanctions on
the Bashar al-Assad regime went into effect on June 1, a dollar fetched 5,000
Syrian Liras, the same price it gets in Lebanese Liras. Beirut erupted in
protests, and so did the city of Sweida in southern Syria.
Aware of the free fall, Lebanon’s The Daily Star complained — in an editorial —
of the hike in prices, not only in local currency, but even in dollars. Because
importers could not find foreign currency to replenish their stocks, commodities
became scarce and prices shot up.
The Daily Star reported that “budget tires that were selling for $80 or $100,
will command prices as high as $150 or $200, due to short supplies. Similarly,
car batteries priced at $100 or $150 will climb to $200 or $300.”
In a country where public transport is unreliable, car tires and batteries are
hardly luxury items. In fact non-essential items, such as Vitamin Water for
athletes, has long vanished off the shelves. Popular chocolate bars, like KitKat
or Kinder, are now being replaced by KeeKat and Binder, cheap replacements made
locally or by fellow “resistance states” like Iran, whose leadership describes
its network of proxies in the region as the “resistance axis.”
While the Lebanese have long prided themselves for their sophisticated taste and
Westernized lifestyle and fashion, they now scratch their heads over how they
got here. Hezbollah and its cronies — including politicians who owe their
positions to the party such as President Michel Aoun and Parliament Speaker
Nabih Berri — have been consistently scapegoating their rivals, such as Saad
al-Hariri, Walid Jumblatt and Samir Geagea, or simply blaming the governor of
the central bank, money exchangers, grocers and even the US Embassy.
Yet the fact remains that Lebanon is following in the footsteps of bankrupt and
failing countries, like Cuba, Venezuela, and Iran, mainly due to its “resistance
state” model. In such model, governments are too weak to fight corruption that
benefits the ruling cast, but too strong to be toppled by hungry protesters.
Rulers of such states are usually brigands, money launderers, and terrorists who
are isolated from the global economy and take their countries down with them ,
turning them into pariah states.
Without economic growth, Lebanon and Syria face a terrible future, and with
Iran’s allies ruling over both countries, it is unlikely that the global order
will let any of the three back in from the cold.
*Hussain Abdul-Hussain is an Iraqi-Lebanese columnist and writer. He is the
Washington bureau chief of Kuwaiti daily al-Rai and a former visiting fellow at
Chatham House in London. He tweets @hahussain.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published on June 15-16/2020
EU Ministers Grapple with Pompeo as West's Rift Widens
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 15/2020
EU foreign ministers hold video talks with their U.S. counterpart Mike Pompeo on
Monday as rifts widen over how to handle relations with Israel, China and
international organizations. The meeting kicks off a crunch week for
trans-Atlantic ties, with a virtual meeting of NATO defense ministers starting
Wednesday already overshadowed by Washington's controversial plans to slash its
troop presence in Germany. U.S. President Donald Trump's "America First"
approach has seen ties with Europe lurch from crisis to crisis in recent years,
but EU officials are determined to keep talking to Washington, even if little
progress is apparent. High on the agenda will be the Middle East peace process,
as Brussels seeks to persuade Israel to back down from plans to annex parts of
the occupied West Bank. The new Israeli government led once again by Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled it intends to annex West Bank
settlements and the Jordan Valley, as proposed by Trump, with initial steps to
begin from July 1. A senior EU official said Monday's talks with Pompeo would
begin three weeks "devoted to strongly reaching out" to all parties -- including
the Israeli and U.S. governments -- to try to stop the moves.
EU ministers will press their objections to annexations -- which they say breach
international law -- with Pompeo. "We are reaching out trying to persuade
everybody that annexations are not a good idea and will create instability, and
the Israeli government should reconsider," the official said. Pompeo has urged
the Palestinians to embrace Trump's Middle East peace plan, which promises them
an independent but condensed and demilitarized state as well as international
investment. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas traveled to Jerusalem last week
to tell Israel of Europe's "serious concerns" about the proposed annexations.
- Court concern -
Europe is also increasingly alarmed by Trump's withdrawal from international
institutions and agreements, most recently the World Health Organization and the
Open Skies treaty with Russia. Monday's meeting comes after the U.S. leader
authorized sanctions against any International Criminal Court official who
investigates U.S. troops -- a move that EU diplomatic chief Josep Borrell said
was a matter of "serious concern." The EU is still studying Trump's order on the
ICC to assess its likely impact, but the senior official said the bloc thought
the sanctions move was wrong. If the prospects of making progress on these
issues on Monday look slim, diplomats hope the two sides may be able to make
progress towards common ground on China. While the U.S. has pursued a
tough-talking approach to an increasingly assertive Beijing, the EU has sought
to thread a path between cooperation, competition and confrontation. But the
senior EU official insisted that fundamentally the two sides share the same
assessment of China, differing only in approach, and should be able to find more
space to cooperate.
- Hypersonic missiles -
The EU has struggled to forge a unified position on China at times, with 27
countries' competing national interests coming to the fore. In a blog post
published Sunday, Borrell said that regardless of whether Trump wins re-election
in November or is replaced by Joe Biden, "U.S.-China relations are set on a path
of global competition."Borrell, a former Spanish foreign minister, argued the EU
must resist outside pressure and act according to its own interests and values.
"One way to think about all this is to go for the 'Sinatra doctrine'," he wrote.
"We as Europeans have to do it 'My Way', with all the challenges this brings."
Defense ministers from the alliance hold their own video talks on Thursday and
Friday, after Washington told Berlin it was considering withdrawing some 9,500
troops from the 34,500 currently permanently based in Germany.Allies will hear
from U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper while also discussing NATO's coronavirus
response and how to handle Russia's growing arsenal of weaponry, including next
generation hypersonic missiles.
Iran Says to Hold Summit with Russia, Turkey on Syria Soon
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 15 June, 2020
Iran announced on Monday that it will “soon” hold a summit with Russia and
Turkey on Syria.Foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi revealed that the
meeting will include the leaders of the guarantor states of the Astana peace
talks on Syria. The summit will be held via videoconference and its date will be
set during Foreign Minister Mohamed Javad Zarif’s ongoing visit to Ankara, he
added, according to Iranian media. Zarif is expected in Moscow on Tuesday. The
visit, said Mousavi, stems from the need to hold diplomatic talks between
Tehran, Ankara and Moscow on Syria. The announcement came shortly after Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu postponed at
the last minute a scheduled visit to Turkey where they were set to discuss the
conflicts in Syria and Libya.Diplomatic sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the
visit was delayed due to “deep differences” between Russia and Turkey on the
Libyan crisis.
Iranians Reel from Economic Mafia, Currency Collapse
Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 15 June, 2020
A soaring food inflation and growing prices of real estate and home appliances
has struck Iran, raising fear among the people along with their concern on the
coronavirus pandemic. Purchasing power saw a significant decline as the prices
of fruits and vegetables continued to increase by 30 to 40 percent.
Economic sources said inflation is caused mainly by the collapse of the
currency, the impact of the coronavirus, lack of state monitoring, and the
presence of an “economic mafia.”However, the sources believe that western
sanctions imposed on the country are directly to be blamed for Iran’s economic
hardship.
Iranians have called on the government to take effective measures to solve the
deteriorating economic crisis, which has forced them to limit their purchases to
essentials goods. Economic reports showed that the prices of household
appliances rose 30 to 60 percent, causing a decline in sales, at a time when
smuggled foreign goods saw a 100 percent increase. The Statistics Center
reported that 30 percent of Iranian families lost the ability to buy home
appliances and resort to the flea market for their needs.
In addition, the housing market recorded a strong decline. Media reports
indicated that some Iranians, who have failed to pay their mortgages or rent,
are now living in tents. The value of the Iranian rial also continued to drop
against the dollar and euro. Social media activists said the sudden imbalance in
the market, deteriorating living conditions, and rising prices have increased
suicide rates. Recently, an employee of the Azadegan oil field in the southwest
of the country, committed suicide, sparking widespread controversy and prompting
the oil minister to open an investigation.
Earlier, the Iranian parliament summoned Minister of Economy Farhad Dejpasand
for questioning on the economic situation. Lawmakers issued a constitutional
warning to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani demanding measures to stop the
increase in prices.
Donyae Eqtesad newspaper reported that Rouhani asked the Undersecretary of the
Industry Ministry to ensure close supervision and urgent intervention to
regulate and control prices of household appliances.
Last week, the President formed a taskforce that includes the ministers of
economy and transportation, and the governor of the Central Bank. Rouhani tasked
them along with his first deputy, Ezhag Jahangiri, with searching for solutions
to the fast rise in home prices.
Economic observers believe that Rouhani should have acted even before the
re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran to regulate the housing market.
Iran: Signs of New Protests Against Rise in Prices
London, Tehran- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 15 June, 2020 - 11:45
Signs of a new round of protests emerged in Tehran, after the rise in prices hit
the foreign exchange market, pushing the dollar to a record high in two years.
Angry Iranians gathered on Sunday in front of the Central Bank headquarters,
chanting slogans condemning the officials and demanding the resignation of the
central bank governor, Abdolnaser Hemmati. The latter was the center of recent
speculations, as political circles in Tehran reported that he could run for the
presidential elections scheduled for May 2021. Iranian security forces cordoned
off the streets leading to the bank, according to eyewitnesses’ reports on
social networks. Meanwhile, the government adopted security measures and
arrested officials to reduce popular discontent. Quoting the Iranian police
chief, ILNA news agency reported that the authorities launched a new unit called
the “economic security police” to counter economy breaches. For its part, Fars
Agency of the Revolutionary Guards quoted Colonel Nader Moradi, Deputy Commander
of the Greater Tehran Police for Supervision of Commercial Venues, as saying
that the police forces will “legally confront the officials of the home
appliance unions who trade in goods with the aim of selling them at high prices
that exceed the approved rates.” The price of one dollar rose in recent days to
180,000 Iranian Rials, the highest record reached since August 2018, in parallel
with the implementation of the US sanctions.
Iran refuses to partake in serious negotiations, says IAEA
Al Arabiya English/Monday 15 June 2020
Iran has refused to partake in serious negotiations with the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding the inspection of several suspicious
sites, IAEA Director General Rafael MarianoGrossi said. Iran had refused to
allow the organization to inspect two suspivious sites after officials had sent
a request four months ago, he said. “We asked Iran to inspect the sites 4 months
ago and we have not received a response,” he said. “Iran has not participated
serious negotiations with us on matters related to unannounced materials and
activities,” the director general added. This comes as Iranian Foreign Ministry
spokesman Abbas Mousavi warned, "If the IAEA takes an unconstructive decision on
Iran, it is possible that Iran will respond." The IAEA is the UN body tasked
with monitoring nuclear activities across the world. Iran has been accused of
trying to develop a nuclear weapon under the disguise of a civilian nuclear
program, a charge it denies.
Iran says extending UN Security Council arms embargo is a
‘red line’
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Monday 15 June 2020
The UN Security Council would cross a “red line” if it extended its arms embargo
on Iran due to expire this October, foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi
warned on Monday. Extending the arms embargo on Iran “is one of our red lines,
and we hope no one crosses this red line,” the semi-official Tasnim quoted
Mousavi as saying. The US in 2018 withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal that
sought to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons in exchange for relief
from economic sanctions. As part of that deal, a UN arms embargo on Iran expires
on October 18. US efforts to extend the arms embargo on Tehran are “illegal,”
Mousavi said.“Our talks with the remaining parties to the Iran nuclear deal,
especially Russia and China, are ongoing,” he added. President Hassan Rouhani
said last week Iran “expects” Russia and China to stand against US efforts to
extend the arms embargo on Tehran.
U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Chief Asks Iran for Access to
Disputed Sites
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 15/2020
The head of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog on Monday called on Iran to allow
"prompt access" to two sites where past nuclear activity may have occurred.
"I hope we can do better," Rafael Grossi, director general of the Vienna-based
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told reporters when asked about the
agency's current relationship with Iran. Grossi was speaking at the start of a
meeting of the agency's Board of Governors which is expected to discuss a report
earlier this month in which the IAEA expressed "serious concern" that Iran has
been blocking inspections at two sites. "There are areas where our cooperation
is ongoing and there is this issue where quite clearly we are in disagreement,"
he said. Grossi repeated an appeal to Iran to "cooperate immediately and fully"
with the agency. If the Board of Governors pass a resolution critical of Iran,
it would be the first of its kind since 2012. Even though the two sites in
question are not thought to be directly relavent to Iran's current activities,
the agency says it needs to know if activities going back almost two decades
have been properly declared and all materials accounted for. The report detailed
efforts by the agency's officials to get access to the locations. Iran told the
agency the report was a source of "deep regret and disappointment" and hinted
the queries were based on "fabricated information" from "intelligence
services."Israel has previously claimed its intelligence services unearthed
information on an alleged previous nuclear weapons program in Iran. Grossi said
that there were "no legal ambiguities" around the requests for access. "The
agency works on the basis of a very rigorous, dogged, meticulous technical and
scientific analysis of information," he said, insisting: "Nothing is taken at
face value." Western states have voiced concern over Iran's denial of access to
the sites concerned, with the United States being particularly vocal.
Brink of collapse
The latest row over access comes as a landmark deal between Iran and world
powers in 2015 continues to unravel. Under the deal, known as the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran committed to curtailing its nuclear
activities for sanctions relief and other benefits. But the Islamic republic has
slowly abandoned its commitments after US President Donald Trump's decision two
years ago to renounce the deal and reimpose swingeing sanctions. Iran's
stockpile of enriched uranium is now almost eight times the limit fixed in the
accord, according to an IAEA assessment published earlier this month. However,
the level of enrichment is still far below what would be needed for a nuclear
weapon. The IAEA says it continues to have access to all the facilities needed
to monitor Iran's current nuclear activity. The latest tension will further
complicate efforts by the deal's EU signatories -- the so-called E3 of France,
Germany and Britain -- to keep the deal from collapsing. Trump has called for
the E3 to follow his lead and leave the deal. Last month, the U.S. said it was
ending sanctions waivers for nations that remain in the Iran nuclear accord -- a
move likely to have most impact on Russian firms working on Iran's nuclear
program. The American move brought condemnation from the E3 and was branded
"unlawful" by Tehran. Iran is also concerned that the U.S. is pushing for an
extension to an international arms embargo against Tehran which is set to be
progressively eased from October. Last week Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
urged other U.N. Security Council members, especially veto-wielding China and
Russia, to stand against the American "conspiracy."
Former Iranian Official Dr. Hossein Samsami: Our
Intervention In Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan Is For Ideological Reasons,
But We Also Stand To Gain Economically
MEMRI/June 15/2020
Dr. Hossein Samsami, an Iranian economist and lecturer, who was responsible for
the Finance Office in the Ahmadinejad government, said in a June 5, 2020 panel
discussion that aired on Channel 5 (Iran) that Iran's intervention in countries
such as Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Afghanistan is for ideological reasons and
because Islamic law obligates it to help the oppressed. He said, however, that
Iran stands to gain economically from its presence in these countries,
especially in light of the sanctions. Dr. Samsami said that Iraq was the second
largest market for Iran's exports and that Syria has a lot of potential for
Iranian economic investments. Woman in audience: "This is my question: In our
country, there is a rising discussion about the fact that our money is being
spent in the countries of the region - in Syria, Lebanon, and the Arab countries
- where the people are being told that Iran is plundering their resources. I
want to know whether this presence of ours in the region also results in
economic gain." Dr. Hossein Samsami: "The main reason for our presence in
the countries of the region - in the Muslim countries and mainly in the
non-Muslim countries - is not economic. Not at all. This goes back to the
essence of the difference between our system and the [American] system. They are
a capitalist system and we are an Islamic system. "According to our
beliefs and our ideology, we are required from the perspective of religion and
religious law to help those who are being oppressed. This is what the founder of
the Islamic Republic of Iran [Khomeini] taught us. He laid the foundations and
we march forward in accordance with this. "It is true that we act according to
our beliefs and ideology. Can this result in economic achievements? Yes, it can.
Of course it can lead to economic achievements. Last year, Iraq was the
second-largest [recipient of] our exports, after China. We exported over 8.5
billion dollars to Iraq alone. We are using these countries to help with regard
to some issues that are related to the sanctions. Syria has tremendous
investment potential. Its ports, and its agriculture, because of the
infrastructure... Its various industries... We are taking advantage of this
tremendous potential and we are turning its economic wheels while we are
benefitting and [Syria] is also benefitting. The same is true in Iraq and
Afghanistan. Our intervention in these countries is for ideological purposes,
but this can also lead to economic achievements."
Former Iranian president Ahmadinejad says he has no interest in running for
president
Yaghoub Fazeli/Al Arabiya English/Monday 15 June 2020
Addressing the speculations surrounding his political future, former Iranian
president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Sunday he has no interest in running for
president in 2021 but is ready to “make sacrifices.” Presidential elections are
scheduled to be held in Iran in the summer of 2021. “There is a long time left
until the elections … I have not thought about it, and personally I have no
desire, but like all Iranians, I am ready to make sacrifices for Iran,” said
Ahmadinejad, when asked if he will run for president in 2021. Ahmadinejad was
president of Iran from 2005 to 2013 and served as mayor of Tehran between 2003
and 2005. In 2017, Ahmadinejad announced he would run in the Iranian
presidential elections, but his nomination was rejected by the Guardian Council,
the body that vets all nominations. The Guardian Council will need to approve
his nomination again this time if Ahmadinejad is to run. Some in Iran speculate
that Ahmadinejad plans on running for president but will not do so until he
receives reassurance that the Guardian Council will not disqualify him again. It
is unlikely the Guardian Council, which is made up of clerics and jurists who
are close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will approve Ahmadinejad’s
candidacy without receiving the green light from Khamenei. Khamenei, who has the
final say on all state matters, sided with Ahmadinejad in the disputed
presidential elections in 2009, but the two later clashed in Ahmadinejad’s final
years as president.
Turkish Jets Drop Bombs on Kurdish Rebel Bases in Northern Iraq
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 15/2020
Turkish military late on Sunday launched air strikes on outlawed Kurdish rebels'
bases in northern Iraq, the defense ministry announced. "Operation Claw-Eagle
has started. Our planes are crushing the caves of terrorists," the ministry
tweeted. The air raids targeted Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) bases in northern
Iraq including in Kandil, Sinjar and Hakurk, it added. The PKK, which has fought
an insurgency against the state since 1984, is banned as a terrorist group by
Ankara and its Western allies. The group has rear bases in northern Iraq.
Turkish military launches regular raids against Kurdish militants in the
southeast of the country as well as in northern Iraq.
Turkey Says Libya Talks with Russia Will Continue
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 15/2020
Turkey and Russia will continue to hold talks on a ceasefire in Libya despite a
high-level meeting being cancelled on the weekend, Turkish officials said on
Monday. Russian ministers were due to visit Istanbul on Sunday but both
countries said the visit would not take place, and neither gave a reason.
"We decided it would be more helpful to continue talks at a technical level,"
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters in Istanbul on Monday.
Turkey supports the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) based in
Tripoli, which is fighting against Russia-backed military strongman Khalifa
Haftar. Reports in Turkish media suggested the two sides disagreed over the
details of a ceasefire and agreed to downgrade the level of talks to try to
resolve the issues. However, Cavusoglu insisted there were no differences in
opinion over "fundamental principles" regarding Libya, but that it was important
to prevent another failed ceasefire. A previous truce attempt collapsed earlier
this year and shortly afterwards the GNA began to register battlefield victories
-- with the help of Turkish military advisers and drones. Cavusoglu said it
would be "unrealistic" for Turkey and Russia to make decisions without
consulting the Libyans, "especially the legitimate government."He dismissed
speculation of a link with the situation in Syria, where Turkey and Russia are
also on opposing sides of the war.
Police fire tear gas on pro-Kurdish protesters in northwest
Turkey
AFP/Monday 15 June 2020
Turkish police fired tear gas and plastic bullets on Monday at pro-Kurdish
protesters who had gathered in support of opposition lawmakers who had been
removed from parliament. Dozens of people rallied in Silivri, northwest Turkey,
after the parliament barred a deputy from the Republican People’s Party (CHP)
and two from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) from serving in the
assembly. The rally, billed as a “march” for democracy, was tense, and police
also used shields to prevent people from joining it, AFP correspondents said. At
least 10 people were detained. The mandates of Leyla Guven and Musa
Farisogullari of the HDP as well as the CHP’s Enis Berberoglu were scrapped on
June 4. Organisers plan to hold more such rallies this week in different cities,
edging closer to Ankara for a final rally there. “We will march until peace,
freedom and democracy are restored,” HDP co-chair Pervin Buldan told the
protestors. HDP lawmaker Musa Piroglu blocked a road with his wheelchair to
prevent a water-cannon truck from chasing protesters, saying: “You will have to
crush me to pass!” HDP militants also gathered in Hakkari in the southeast to
protest the replacement of dozens of mayors by government-appointed trustees
since local elections in 2019. “The trustee policy is the biggest coup against
democracy,” HDP co-chair Mithat Sancar told the crowd. Sancar said they were
rallying for the three MPs removed as well as “for Figen Yuksekdag and
Selahattin Demirtas who have been unfairly and illegally jailed.”For all the
latest headlines follow our Google News channel online or via the app. Ex-HDP
leaders Yuksekdag and Demirtas were jailed in November 2016 as the government
cracked down on Turkey’s second-largest opposition party.
“The will of the Kurdish people is violated. We don’t accept it,” HDP MP Zeynel
Ozen told AFP. “Even if in the end only one person remains, this resistance will
continue.”
Turkish lira becomes unofficial currency in Syria as economy sinks
Nicholas Frakes/Al Arabiya English/Monday 15 June 2020
In Turkish-controlled parts of northern Syria, people have started to use the
Turkish lira, rather than the local Syrian currency as the economy and the value
of the Syrian lira plummets. In recent weeks, Syria has faced a growing economic
crisis where it has seen the value of the Syrian lira drastically drop and
inflation soar. Currently, the lira is trading between 2,000-3,000 to $1, where
it is officially valued at 435 to $1. Turkey has begun delivering currency to
Turkish-controlled areas in Syria, known as Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch
areas, and opposition-controlled areas, including Idlib, as residents have
started to rely on the stronger Turkish lira to survive. “People in northern
Syria are looking for a very stable currency because the Syrian lira is
deteriorating quickly,” Abdulkafi al-Hamdo, a teacher in northern Syria, told Al
Arabiya English. “They started using the Turkish lira because they have PTT,” he
said. PTT is the Turkish postal service that is used to transfer money from
Turkey to Syria. Additionally, some organizations have started paying salaries
in Turkish lira and money must be transferred in Turksih lira, al-Hamdo said.
Accelerated use
While the use of the Turkish lira predates the economic crisis in Syria, the
need for it has increased rapidly as the Syrian lira devaluates. According to
al-Hamdo, the use of Turkish currency has accelerated in the last week as
workers’ salaries are no longer enough to sustain themselves or their families
when they receive payment in Syrian lira. He added that people are asking Turkey
to send more lira, but this has not happened yet. In addition to the Syrian and
Turkish liras, some people are also using dollars, despite the fact that it is a
crime in Syria to use any currency other than the Syrian lira for commercial
use. Some shops have even begun putting their prices in dollars or Turkish lira
to accommodate the growing use of the two currencies. “In Idlib, most people are
putting prices in dollars,” al-Hamdo said. “But, nevertheless, when you want to
buy something and you don’t have dollars, they will make their calculations and
get you the amount in Syrian lira.”
Turkey’s intentions
By sending Turkish cash to Syria, Ankara is hoping to prevent another wave of
refugees seeking to cross over into Turkey, according to Elizabeth Tsurkov, a
fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. “The Syrian pound is
collapsing,” Tsurkov told Al Arabiya English. “The population is already
malnourished. If they continue to rely on the Syrian pound, the population is
going to starve much quicker, and Turkey may be faced with the prospect of
hungry displaced persons rushing toward the border and trying to enter Turkey
just to try and feed themselves.” Al-Hamdo also argues that those living in
northern Syria are being forced to rely heavily on Turkey because of the war and
economic collapse that the country is facing. “[Turkey] is not the good
solution,” al-Hamdo explained, but said it was the lesser of two evils when
forced to choose between the Syrian regime or Turkey, where the latter provides
some security.
“On one side [Syria] it means their humiliation and their death. The other side
[Turkey] is that you’re not dealing with your own people. It’s not only a matter
of [the Syria lira] deteriorating. It is because people want a stable life,” he
said.
Potential boost for Turkish lira
Beyond preventing another refugee crisis, Turkey’s currency could see a boost in
value, as well as the Turkish economy.
“Turkey definitely has something to gain from this because the moment that you
increase the demand for the currency, you can immediately print money without it
losing its value,” Tsurkov said. “So expanding the market is incredibly
beneficial.” Al-Hamdo agreed that this could help the Turkish economy,
especially because “people are going to depend more and more now on the Turkish
lira” as the economic crisis in Syria worsens. With a new round of crippling US
sanctions expected to hit June 17 when the Caesar Act is implemented, the Syrian
economy is likely to take another blow.
According to Tsurkov, this could lead to the “overall collapse of the Syrian
economy.”To sustain the economy in northern Syria, Turkey will have to continue
to send lira to areas under its control, as well as areas under opposition
control. Once the need for the Syria lira ceases, then Turkey’s direct
involvement in the local economy could significantly lessen. “Money will need to
be brought in based on the growth rate of the economy,” Tsurkov stated. “But the
area is a war zone full of impoverished, malnourished displaced persons. It
seems that once they’ve filled in the area with enough money to take out the
Syrian lira, then they won’t need to do much else.” However, with such a large
portion of Syria’s population switching from the Syrian lira to the Turkish
lira, this could also have a negative impact on the Syrian economy, but,
according to Tsrkov, the impact of this would be delayed.
Turkish jets hit Kurdish militant targets in northern Iraq
Souad El Skaf, Al Arabiya English/Monday 15 June 2020
Turkish fighter jets hit Kurdish militant targets in Mount Sinjar in northern
Iraq with around 20 missiles on Sunday, security sources told Al Arabiya.
Turkey’s Defense Ministry confirmed that its jets had launched an operation.
“The Claw-Eagle Operation has started. Our planes are bringing the caves down on
the terrorists’ heads,” the ministry said in a statement, announcing the latest
in a series of operations targeting Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants,
Reuters reported. For all the latest headlines follow our Google News channel
online or via the app. Turkey regularly targets Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)
militants, both in Turkey’s mainly Kurdish southeast and in northern Iraq, where
the group is based. Last March, Two Turkish soldiers were killed and two others
wounded after a mortar attack by Kurdish militants in northern Iraq’s Haftanin
region, said the Turkish Defense Ministry. Shortly after, the ministry said in a
separate statement that Turkish warplanes had hit four targets in the region,
killing eight PKK militants. The PKK is designated a terrorist organization by
Turkey, the United States and the European Union. Some 40,000 people have been
killed in the fight between Turkish forces and the PKK. (With Reuters)
Turkey eyes Libya military bases for lasting presence in
Mediterranean: Source
Reuters/Monday 15 June 2020
Turkey and Libya’s UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) are
discussing possible Turkish use of two military bases in the North African
country, a Turkish source said on Monday, with a view to a lasting Turkish
presence in the south Mediterranean. No final decisions have been made over
possible Turkish military use of the Misrata naval base and the al-Watiya air
base, which was recently recaptured by the Turkish-backed GNA. A more permanent
air and naval presence in Libya could reinforce Turkey’s growing influence in
the region, including in Syria, and boost its claims to offshore oil and gas
resources. Turkey has also flagged possible energy and construction deals with
Tripoli once the fighting ends. The country has been mired in conflict as the
GNA, backed by Turkey, battles the Libyan National Army (LNA) headed by Gen.
Khalifa Haftar.
The conflict has displaced an estimated 200,000 people. While all sides say they
want a truce, heavy clashes have emerged near the LNA-held coastal city of Sirte,
which is close to major energy export terminals on the Mediterranean seaboard.
Russia and Turkey postponed high-level talks on Libya, scheduled for Sunday in
Istanbul, due to discord over the GNA’s push to retake Sirte, another Turkish
official said. “Turkey using al-Watiya ... is on the agenda,” said the first
source, speaking on condition of anonymity. “It could also be possible for the
Misrata naval base to be used by Turkey.”Turkey has a military base in Qatar and
in 2017 added troops there amid a row between Doha on the one hand and Saudi
Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain on the other. Ankara threw
its support behind the government in Tripoli last year after the GNA signed a
maritime demarcation accord that it says gives Turkish drilling rights near
Crete, but that is opposed by Greece, Cyprus, Israel and the European Union. A
Libyan naval base in particular would “institutionalize” Turkey’s influence in
the Eastern Mediterranean and give it leverage over Arab and European
adversaries, said Galip Dalay, Fellow at Robert Bosch Academy. For all the
latest headlines follow our Google News channel online or via the app.
Discord over Sirte
Russia’s foreign ministry said on Sunday it was pursuing a “prompt ceasefire”
and that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov would reschedule the meeting that was
set for Sunday with his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu. “A result was
supposed to come out (of the meetings), but that stage could not be reached.
There are issues where the two countries are on opposing sides,” the second
Turkish official told Reuters. “One of the main issues for the postponement of
the Lavrov visit is the (GNA’s) plan for an operation into Sirte...which has
emerged as a target.” The Kremlin did not comment on the postponement. Cavusoglu
said on Monday it was unrelated to any issues on “core principles.”The United
Nations said last week the warring sides had begun new ceasefire talks in Libya
after GNA forces, helped by Turkey, repelled a protracted LNA assault on the
capital Tripoli. Sirte, about halfway between GNA-held Tripoli and LNA-held
Benghazi, is the closest city to Libya’s main energy export terminals. Haftar’s
forces seized the city in January and the conflict’s new front line has emerged
just to the west. “Russia wants Turkey and the GNA to halt military operations,
particularly not attacking Sirte, Jufra and the oil crescent - and Ankara has
rebuffed this demand,” said Dalay. “If Turkish-Russian talks don’t bear fruit,
we might then see escalation both in Libya and in Syria’s Idlib region,” where
Ankara and Moscow also back opposing sides, he said.
Mass grave in Syria may explain disappearance of famous Italian Catholic priest
Emily Judd, Al Arabiya English/Sunday 14 June 2020
The case of a missing Italian Catholic priest, internationally known for his
interfaith efforts in Syria and criticism of President Bashar al-Assad, may come
to a tragic conclusion with the recent finding of a mass grave near the city of
Raqqa. A grave of at least 100 bodies, suspected of being ISIS victims, was
discovered in northern Syria, Italian media reported on May 26, in the same area
where Italian priest Father Paolo Dall’Oglio went missing in July 2013. There
have been conflicting reports regarding the disappearance of the then
58-year-old Catholic leader - some claim Dall’Oglio was killed, while others
claim he is still alive and held by his abductors.
Dall’Oglio: Man of dialogue and dissent
An Italian Catholic priest, Dall’Oglio first visited Syria to study Arabic in
the 1980s and was responsible for the restoration of an ancient monastery near
the capital city of Damascus and its transformation into an interfaith center
known as the Monastery of Saint Moses, or Deir Mar Musa in Arabic.
Dall’Oglio organized interfaith dialogue seminars and his community of priests
and nuns “tirelessly strove to facilitate better interreligious relations in
Syria, employing workers from all backgrounds, and celebrating both Christian
and Muslim festivals,” according to Shaun O’Neill, who met Dall’Oglio in 2011
just before the civil war and is author of the book A Church of Islam: The
Syrian Calling of Father Paolo Dall’Oglio. More controversially, Dall’Oglio’s
monastery was always open and subsequently “gave shelter to political dissidents
and victims of regime torture before and during the Syrian Civil War,” said
O’Neill in an interview with Al Arabiya English. When war erupted in 2011, the
relationship between Dall’Oglio and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime
fractured.
At odds with Al-Assad
Dall’Oglio told Al Arabiya in a 2012 television interview that his community’s
interreligious dialogue activities were also paired with working “against
corruption, which caused a cloud to hang over our head” in the country. He
advocated for a non-violent transition of power in Syria and the establishment
of a team of 50,000 international observers – both ideas which caused tension
with the country’s leadership and led to his expulsion from Syria. “I never held
my silence in Syria because I was not suited for silence…I spoke because the
country was drowning,” he said in the interview with Al Arabiya, after being
expelled from the country in June 2012. “The people are living the challenge of
a civil war, people are slaughtering each other in the streets backed by whoever
is benefitting from this to protect the old regime,” said Dall’Oglio, adding
that as a monk he was committed to non-violence.
Syria should be a country of peace “instead of being the boxing ring for the
Iranian revolutionary fighters,” Dall’Oglio added, referencing Iran’s military
presence, training, and funding in the country. Iran has spent over $16 billion
since 2012 supporting al-Assad and other partners and proxies in Syria, Iraq,
and Yemen, according to a 2018 report by the US State Department’s Iran Action
Group.
Disappearance of Dall’Oglio
After Dall’Oglio was expelled from Syria in June 2012, he eventually returned
under the protection of the Free Syrian Army and other opposition groups. The
details of Dall’Oglio’s disappearance in Raqqa in July 2013 remain incomplete,
according to O’Neill, who said that Dall’Oglio was in Syria “negotiating the
release of political prisoners as he had done many times before.”“But something
went wrong: ISIS was encroaching upon the city at this time,” said O’Neill. ISIS
made Raqqa into its de facto capital in 2014, one year before two other
Christian priests were abducted in the area - just before Dall’Oglio went
missing. “Father Paolo knew too well the increasing risks of being a religious
figure in these areas. He knew what was at stake,” said O’Neill, who said
Dall’Oglio’s “bullish nature” encouraged his return to the country. Now the
uncovering of a mass grave in Raqqa, believed to hold victims of ISIS, may
provide clues into the circumstances of Dall’Oglio’s fate. Syrian authorities
have been discovering mass graves in Raqqa since ISIS was driven out of the city
in 2017. If it is confirmed that Dall’Oglio’s remains are in this mass grave in
Syria, his death could make him “a martyr for the opposition as he continues to
be a thorn in the Ba’ath party’s side,” said O’Neill. “Dall’Oglio held all power
to account – state and religious - and unflinchingly tried to tell the truth. It
seems he paid the ultimate price for his candor,” he added.
Police protest in Paris against lack of backing from the
government
AFP/Monday 15 June 2020
Several dozen police held a surprise nighttime protest late Saturday in central
Paris, parking their police cars by the Arc de Triomphe and flashing their
lights. President Emmanuel Macron vowed on Sunday that France would not seek to
erase elements of its history or take down statues of controversial public
figures, despite growing global scrutiny of former colonial powers in the wake
of worldwide protests. In an address to the nation, Macron said France would be
“uncompromising” in its fight against racism after days of demonstrations over
alleged prejudice among police forces. Angry crowds have toppled statues of
colonial figures in Britain and the United States, and there has been an
intensified scrutiny of the records of key leaders of the colonial era in
Europe. But Macron said the country would not obscure elements of its history or
dismantle statues of public figures who may have advocated racist views or
policies. “The Republic will not wipe away any trace or any name from its
history. It will not forget any of its works. It will not take down any of its
statues but lucidly look at out history and our memory together,” he said. He
said this was especially important in Africa, where French colonial rule in
several countries left a legacy that remains a subject of anger for many to this
day. Together, France and Africa need to find a “present and a future that is
possible on both sides of the Mediterranean”, he said. In a sign of the
sensitivities in France, former Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault had Saturday
urged a new designation for a hall in parliament named after the 17th-century
statesman Jean-Baptiste Colbert. It was Colbert who drew up the “Code Noir” that
defined the conditions for slavery.
‘Police deserve support’
Several demonstrations against racism and police violence against minorities
have erupted in French cities in recent weeks, given impetus by the death in
police custody of George Floyd in the US. Protesters have rallied in particular
around the case of a young black man, Adama Traore, who died in custody in 2016,
a case that remains under investigation. Twenty-one people have been placed
under arrest over their actions in a demonstration in Paris in Saturday that
ended in clashes with police, prosecutors said. Macron acknowledged that France
had to fight against the fact that “the name, the address, the color of the
skin” can affect a person’s chances in their lives. “We will be uncompromising
against racism, anti-Semitism and discrimination. New decisions for equality
will be taken,” he said. “It is necessary to unite around Republican patriotism.
We are a nation where everyone - whatever their origin and religion - can find
their place,” he said. “Is this true everywhere and for everyone? No,” he
admitted. Human Rights Watch said Sunday that France should halt identity checks
by the police that are “abusive and discriminatory” towards black and Arab
males.But Macron defended France’s under-fire police force, saying they “deserve
public support and the recognition of the nation for their work.”“Without
Republican order there cannot be security or freedom,” he said. He warned that
the fight against racism became distorted when it became exploited by what he
described as “separatists.”Police have themselves protested against what they
perceive as a lack of backing from the government and in particular Interior
Minister Christophe Castaner.
Israel OKs ‘Trump Heights’ Settlement in Golan
Tel Aviv- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 15 June, 2020
An Israeli cabinet minister on Sunday said the government approved plans to
build a new settlement in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights named after
President Donald Trump. Settlements Minister Tzipi Hotovely wrote on Facebook
that her ministry will start preparations for Ramat Trump — Hebrew for “Trump
Heights” — to house 300 families. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
intends to establish this settlement as an appreciation to Trump's recognition
of the law by which this region was annexed to Israel. Israel captured the Golan
Heights from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war and annexed it in 1981. Most of the
international community considers the move, and Israeli settlements in the
territory, illegal under international law. But Trump signed an executive order
recognizing the strategic mountainous plateau as Israeli territory in March
2019. The move came during a visit to Washington by Netanyahu just weeks before
Israeli elections. The decision, just one of several diplomatic moves benefiting
Israel, was widely applauded there. Observers see that this plan has been
introduced to serve elections purposes and that Netanyahu would withdraw the
matter once the electoral battle is over. They say that this settlement isn’t
new, but it hasn't attracted Jewish settlers to live in it. A source in Tel Aviv
revealed that Trump himself mocked the idea of naming a settlement after him and
not completing it either.
The Israeli Ministry of Finance allocated 8 million shekels (USD2.2 million) in
the current budget to proceed with the required procedures to accelerate the
plans to develop the hill where the settlement would be established. A total of
USD3 million will be dedicated to the Ministry of Construction and Housing of
Israel and USD5 million to the Ministry for Settlement Affairs. The Ministry of
Finance affirmed earlier that marketing the settlement would cost 28.5 million
shekels and that only 8 million were dispersed which means that seeing steps on
the ground was still out of reach.
PA Unable to Pay Salaries for 2nd Consecutive Month
Ramallah- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 15 June, 2020
The Palestinian Authority (PA) has not paid the salaries of its employees for
the month of June yet, knowing that it did not pay the salaries of May either
due to the suspension of agreements with Israel.This issue further aggravated
the living situation in the Palestinian territories which have been under
lockdown for the past three months due to the spread of the coronavirus. The
Palestinian government is trying to secure part of the salaries; however, it is
unclear if the Authority will be able to provide the salaries for the coming
months, especially if Israel goes ahead with its plans to annex part of the West
Bank, a source close to the matter told Asharq Al-Awsat. He added that the
Authority refused to receive the funds from Israel since it ended the security
coordination, and was now facing a major fiscal deficit.
The Minister of Civil Affairs, Hussein al-Sheikh, stated that the refusal to
receive the funds from Israel was in compliance with the Authority's decision to
end ties with Israel. Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said that the
Authority may not be able to pay salaries this month pending the estimates of
the Ministry of Finance, which is yet to issue a statement on the matter. Member
of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Executive Committee Azzam
al-Ahmad warned that Palestinian Authority would face another financial crisis.
Ahmad said that the PLO lost many of its resources after the Gulf War and was
unable to pay salaries for nearly a year. The official indicated that the
Authority faced several financial crises where it couldn’t pay salaries for over
a year, or had to pay them every three or four months. He added that after Hamas
won the elections, the employees did not receive any payment for 18 months.
The government estimated the economic losses at $3.8 billion, and said it
expected the budget deficit to increase to $1.4 billion, especially with the
expected 50 percent reduction in revenues.
Over the past two years, reports of the Palestine Monetary Authority showed a
continuous slowdown in the Palestinian economy, with the growth rate reaching
0.7 percent compared to 3.1 percent in 2017. This comes against the backdrop of
the continued contraction of the economy in the Gaza Strip and the decline in
growth in the West Bank. Earlier, the World Bank warned that poverty may double
in the occupied West Bank this year due to the economic situation, and the staff
crisis reinforces these estimates. Israeli media reported that the Palestinian
Authority does not intend to pay the salaries of employees or transfer funds to
Gaza, in order to push people to escalate the situation with Israel. The
Authority informed the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT),
Kamil Abu Rukun, that the Israeli Defense Minister, Benny Gantz, must pay the
salaries if Israel annexed parts of the West Bank, according to Israeli reports.
The salaries of state employees in the Palestinian Authority are estimated at
about NIS 550 million, to be paid to about 140,000 employees.
Stock Markets Slip on Fears of Second Virus Wave
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 15/2020
Equities tumbled Monday, extending last week's losses on fears of a second wave
of virus infections around the world that could put the brakes on the easing of
lockdowns and a budding economic recovery. While European nations press ahead
with their reopening after months of strict shutdowns, there are signs that the
deadly disease is coming back in China and seeing a resurgence in the United
States too. The worrying figures will provide a test for stock markets, which
have soared up to 50 percent from their March troughs thanks to the lifting of
stay-at-home orders and trillions of dollars of stimulus and central bank
backstopping. Beijing has carried out mass testing and locked down several
neighborhoods after 75 cases were linked to a single wholesale food market in
the capital. City official Li Junjie said Monday that cases had also been found
at another market. The city has raced to quash the new outbreak, issuing travel
warnings, closing the market, deploying paramilitary police and putting nearby
housing estates under lockdown. That came as more than a dozen US states,
including populous Texas and Florida, reported their highest-ever daily case
totals, while Rome and Tokyo have also seen fresh spikes. "It means the virus
hasn't lost its infectiousness, it isn't weakening... we shouldn't let down our
guard," World Health Organization deputy director Ranieri Guerra told Italian
journalists. AxiCorp's Stephen Innes said in a note: "Falling infection rates
have provided investors the confidence that the lockdown approach was working,
allowing equity investors to look forward to 2021 as impressive monetary and
fiscal policy provide a post-pandemic bridge.""However, rising new daily
COVID-19 cases in two of the three most populous states in the US will test that
resolve."
- Reopening borders -
Tokyo tumbled 3.5 percent and Seoul sank 4.8 percent, while Hong Kong, Sydney,
Singapore, Mumbai and Bangkok were all down more than two percent. Shanghai was
one percent off, Manila also lost 4.8 percent and Taipei slipped 1.1 percent,
with Wellington off 0.4 percent.
London, Paris and Frankfurt all lost more than two percent at the start of
trade. Still, there is hope for the recovery in Europe, with Germany, Belgium,
France and Greece opening their borders to EU countries from Monday. Austria
will follow on Tuesday, while Spain said it will do so on June 21.
Meanwhile, France from Monday will allow cafes and restaurants to open in full,
instead of just their terraces. "As economies reopen, an increase in infection
rates is to be expected, the question is whether detecting measures will be
efficient enough to allow for localized containment measures without having to
shut the whole economy again. China could be the template to watch here," said
Rodrigo Catril of National Australia Bank. Oil prices extended last week's
losses on fears that a second wave could lead to new lockdowns and hit demand
for the commodity again. Traders are also keeping tabs on a technical meeting of
key producers led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, with a panel discussing output
cuts.
- Key figures around 0720 GMT -
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 3.5 percent at 21,530.95 (close)
Hong Kong - Hang Seng: DOWN 2.2 percent at 23,761.98
Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 1.0 percent at 2,890.03 (close)
London - FTSE 100: DOWN 2.2 percent at 5,974.62
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 4.7 percent at $34.56 per barrel
Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 3.4 percent at $37.43 per barrel
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1230 from $1.1258 at 2050 GMT on Friday
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 107.28 yen from 107.39 yen
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2458 from $1.2531
Euro/pound: UP at 90.15 pence from 89.81 pence
New York - Dow: UP 1.9 percent at 25,605.54 (close)
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on June 15-16/2020
Why are there more wars in the Middle East than anywhere
else?
Seth J.Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/June 15/2020
The number of airstrikes and battles taking place in the Middle East make it the
most war-torn region in the world.
Last night, Turkish airstrikes wreaked havoc in northern Iraq. Hours before the
airstrikes, the US launched a secretive “ninja” missile at a car in northwest
Syria, killing an alleged member of an Al-Qaeda-linked group. Then, around the
same time Turkey’s airstrikes were being launched, Iraqi investigators found a
flatbed truck with rockets aimed at a base housing US soldiers near Baghdad.
There were also Russian airstrikes reported in Idlib on Sunday, June 14.
The huge number of airstrikes and battles taking place in the Middle East make
it the most war-torn region in the world, with the largest number of countries
and world powers engaged in conflict. Here is a quick rundown of all the wars
happening in the Middle East.
Iranian militias vs. the US
Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have carried out dozens of attacks on bases in
Iraq where US forces are present. Four members of the US-led coalition have been
killed, including one contractor. The US has launched two rounds of airstrikes,
in December 2019 and March 2020 against the Kataib Hezbollah faction. The US
also killed IRGC head Qasem Soleimani and Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis
in January. In response, Iran fired ballistic missiles at US bases. Washington
sent air defense systems. The US also has tensions with Iran in the Persian
Gulf, where the Islamic Republic mines tankers and harasses American ships. And
there are tensions in Syria where Iran threatens US forces. Russian contractors
serving with pro-Assad militias in Syria attacked US-backed Syrian Democratic
Forces in February 2018 near Deir Ezzor.
Israel vs. Iran and Hezbollah
Israel has carried out more than 1,000 airstrikes in Syria against Iranian
targets, according to retired IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot in The New York
Times in 2019. Tensions between Israel and Iran are high regarding Iranian
entrenchment in Syria. Tehran may be repositioning forces now. Last August,
Israel also detected a Hezbollah “killer drone” team near the Golan. In
addition, Hezbollah figures have been killed in Syria and one of their cars
destroyed by a drone strike they blamed on Israel. Last fall, on September 1,
2019, Hezbollah launched an anti-tank missile at Israel. Iran launched a drone
at Israel from Syria in February 2018. Israel has used its air defense to down
missiles and rockets fired from Syria. A salvo was fired at Israel in May 2018.
In April 2020, Hezbollah cut holes in the security fence in northern Israel.
Turkish-backed Libyans versus Egyptian-backed Libyans
Turkey intervened in the nine-year Libyan Civil War in November 2019. Now
Turkish drones are active and Turkish planes and ships have appeared off the
coast. Turkey backs the Government of the National Accord in Tripoli against the
Libyan National Army of Khalifa Haftar. Haftar is backed by Egypt, the UAE,
France, Russia and others. The LNA tried to capture Tripoli last year but Turkey
helped push it back. Now Ankara wants military bases in Libya. Egypt wants a
ceasefire. France is angry at Turkey for trying to conduct a grab for energy
resources in the Mediterranean and transfer weapons to Libya. Turkey has asked
the US to support it in Libya. Russia sent warplanes to Libya to bolster Haftar
after he faced setbacks in May.
Russia and Iran in Syria versus Turkey and Syrian rebels in Syria
Iran moved into Syria around 2012 to help the Assad regime fight Syrian rebels,
and Russia intervened in 2015. With their help, Assad retook Aleppo in 2016 and
southern Syria in 2018. Then Russia backed the Syrian regime offensives in Idlib,
signing a deal with Turkey in September 2018 and another ceasefire in March.
Russia and the Syrian regime also grabbed up areas the US withdrew from during a
Turkish invasion in October 2019. Turkey has increased its role in Syria since
2016, invading areas around Jarabulus, then Afrin in 2018 and then Tel Abyad in
2019. Now it has sent thousands of tanks and soldiers to Idlib. Russia and
Turkey conduct joint patrols on the M4 highway but Russia continues to bomb
Syrian rebels.
US vs. Russia and Iran in Syria
The US says it wants to make Syria a Russian “quagmire.” The Trump
administration has carried out two rounds of air strikes on the Syrian regime.
Meanwhile, Russia and the US have tensions in eastern Syria around Derik and
Qamishli where patrols frequently try to run each other off the road. Things are
tense. Russia has accused the US of a variety of crimes in Syria, and
misinformation seeks to undermine the US role there. Meanwhile, Washington says
it wants Iran to leave Syria and has condemned Moscow’s role in the country.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others against Iran in Yemen
In 2015 the Houthi rebels in Yemen looked set to take Aden and control the Bab
al-Mandab straits. Saudi Arabia intervened with a Gulf coalition. Along with the
UAE, contractors and others, they pushed the Houthi rebels back. Iran moved
drones and ballistic missiles to aid the Houthis and began firing them deep into
Saudi Arabia. Eventually Iran even carried out a massive drone and cruise
missile attack in September 2019 against Saudi oil facilities. Iran’s Houthi
allies also carried out dozens of drone attacks.
Everyone vs ISIS
The whole world has joined the anti-ISIS coalition led by the US – it has 82
members. These include heavy lifting by the US and some forces from France, the
UK and other NATO members. Iran, Russia and Turkey also claim to be fighting
ISIS. Although everyone is fighting ISIS, it is still having a small resurgence
in Iraq. The US-backed SDF in Syria also holds 10,000 ISIS detainees and fights
ISIS sleeper cells. The coalition trained and mentored more than 200,000 Iraqi
soldiers and some 80,000 SDF members. These huge numbers are apparently not
quite enough though: ISIS is still fighting.
The US vs. al-Qaeda
The US is still fighting al-Qaeda. In Syria, Libya and Yemen, air strikes kill
members of the group from time to time. A “ninja sword” bomb used by US drones
has sliced up several al-Qaeda members in recent years in Idlib. These
extremists operate near the Turkish border. The US operates across borders to
hunt them down.
Israel vs. Islamic Jihad and Hamas
Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have seen tensions rise over the last two
years. Hamas also embarked on a "March of Return" in 2018, carrying out protests
for a year. In November and December 2019, Israel and Islamic Jihad came to
blows. IJ leaders have been killed, as well as many of its fighters. They have
launched hundreds of rockets at Israel; Hamas has refrained from joining some of
the fighting.
Turkey vs. the PKK
Turkey had a ceasefire with the Kurdistan Workers Party up until 2015. When it
broke down, Turkey fought a grueling war in its Kurdish cities. Then Ankara
expanded the war, attacking Kurds in northern Iraq and then invading parts of
Syria, claiming to be fighting PKK-affiliates. It invaded Afrin in January 2018
and carried out large scale operations in northern Iraq. On June 14, Turkey
launched a new operation targeting Yazidi areas of Iraq, claiming that there are
PKK bases there. Turkey also accuses the US of training PKK-linked groups in
Syria.
Egypt vs. ISIS
Egypt has been fighting an ISIS insurgency in Sinai that has led to thousands of
casualties. ISIS has carried out numerous atrocities, targeting Christians and
mosques. Egypt has used its military to flood Sinai. However, ISIS is not
defeated and the war continues.
NO OTHER area in the world has so many complex conflicts. Every day in the
Middle East there are airstrikes and threats of war or invasions. The region is
an area of competition for global powers, such as Russia and the US. It is also
an area where regional powers feel impunity to traffic weapons and send their
armies across borders. Nowhere else in the world are there so many states
operating across national borders or funding and arming proxies.
Drones and new technology are being experimented with and updated in the Middle
East. The region has seen ballistic missile strikes at new ranges, drone swarms
and the use of air defense such as Iron Dome, Arrow 3 and Patriots to down
threats. Jamming and new technology has assisted Turkey in Libya.
In addition, the region’s civil wars in Yemen, Libya and Syria are continuing.
There are also rivalries, such as Qatar versus Saudi Arabia, that feed conflicts
elsewhere. Nowhere else in the world are F-35s, MiG-29s, S-400s and other
systems all being put into play with the chance that they will be used. The
region is suffering the long-term challenges of the post-Cold War and post-War
on Terror era.
This era sees a return to stronger states after the Arab spring, as well as the
chaos and rise of proxy groups and ungoverned spaces. The region is now seen as
being up for grabs as the US begins to withdraw from areas like Syria or
Afghanistan – and other states, such as Iran, Turkey, Russia and China are
stepping in. This feeds conflicts as each country seeks greater hegemony and
wants to take over areas in Syria, Libya or Yemen.
In addition, terrorist groups and proxy armies and militias are well armed in
the Middle East. Although they wreak havoc across the Sahel or Afghanistan, this
is the region where they have the most funding, weapons and state support.
The Middle East is the world's most war-torn region, and the warring won't be
ending so soon.
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 1): Increasing the
Assad Regime’s Isolation
Dana Stroul and Katherine Bauer//The Washington Institute/June
15/2020
New Syria sanctions signal bipartisan support for continued diplomatic isolation
and economic coercion, but their impact ultimately depends on whether the
executive branch is willing to prioritize the issue.
When President Trump signed the latest National Defense Authorization Act into
law last December, he also authorized the bipartisan Caesar Syria Civilian
Protection Act, named for the Syrian military defector who exposed a trove of
evidence documenting the Assad regime’s war crimes. The legislation imposes
sanctions on governments, companies, or individuals indirectly funding Bashar
al-Assad’s regime or contributing to its military campaigns. Anticipation of
Caesar sanctions is already driving perceptions of risk about doing business in
Syria, and as the June 17 deadline for implementation approaches, many believe
that the resultant actions will increase economic pain on the regime’s
supporters.
Assad and his allies have reasserted control over most of the country through
ongoing military advances on the ground, and in light of this reality, Russia
has been encouraging others to accept that Assad is here to stay, welcome him
back into the international fold, and fund Syria’s reconstruction. The Caesar
Act rejects this premise: if effectively implemented, the new sanctions
authorities could deter even U.S. partners from participating in reconstruction
or otherwise expanding ties with Syria under an unreformed Assad regime. This
two-part PolicyWatch examines the policy issues and targeting criteria that will
shape this implementation; Part 1 looks at Syria sanctions, while Part 2
discusses how the legislation might be used against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
ARE CAESAR SANCTIONS THE MISSING PIECE?
The new sanctions authorities in the Caesar Act target entities operating for
the Assad regime’s benefit in four sectors: oil/natural gas, military aircraft,
construction, and engineering (for full PDF text of the act, see page 1,093 of
the National Defense Authorization Act). This includes direct and indirect
support to the regime, such as support to Iranian- and Russian-backed militias
operating in Syria. Additionally, the act requires the Trump administration to
determine whether the Central Bank of Syria is an entity of “primary money
laundering concern” pursuant to Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT ACT.
Most of this activity is already sanctionable under a series of Obama-era
executive orders, including E.O. 13582 (2011), which blocked the property of the
Syrian government, of entities that provide it with technological, material or
financial support, and of entities that work for it or act on its behalf. For
example, the Trump administration has argued that the Central Bank of Syria is
subject to sanctions under this order; the bank is subject to European Union
sanctions as well. Separately, numerous Syrian individuals and entities are
already subject to U.S. conduct-based sanctions for terrorism support,
corruption, human rights abuses, weapons of mass destruction proliferation, or
other violations.
To date, the strategy of targeting the regime directly—including via sanctions
adopted by the multilateral “Friends of Syria” group in 2011 and by the U.S.
government years earlier—has failed to change Assad’s behavior. This is
principally because Russia and Iran have given him decisive military, financial,
and diplomatic support. Although they lack the finances to rebuild Syria, Caesar
sanctions are unlikely to shift their commitment to the regime’s survival;
besides, both governments and their networks are already under extensive
U.S.-led sanctions for actions inside or outside the Syrian context.
WHO MIGHT BE TARGETED?
Despite the existing sanctions risk, foreign investors remain interested in
Syrian business opportunities, particularly firms in the Persian Gulf states and
Eastern Europe. For example, after last year’s diplomatic thaw between the
United Arab Emirates and Assad, a delegation of Syrian businessmen, including
U.S.- and EU-sanctioned individuals, attended an Emirati-organized
private-sector forum in Abu Dhabi. Later in 2019, a sizable Emirati delegation
attended the annual Damascus International Trade Fair. By reestablishing its
presence in Syria, the UAE seemingly hoped to counterbalance Iranian influence,
and it has since come under significant U.S. pressure to avoid running afoul of
sanctions. Nevertheless, Emirati, Saudi, and Kuwaiti investors have reportedly
continued to form companies or seek licenses to operate in Syria’s construction
and tourism sectors.
A number of Lebanon-based firms also remain active there, including in sectors
targeted by the Caesar Act (e.g., oil and gas). Some of these firms are
Lebanese-owned, while others were established by Syrian elites. The act’s
looming implementation has raised concerns in Lebanon about exposure to Caesar
sanctions, which could push the country’s teetering economy closer to the edge.
In the end, the legislation’s impact will lie in both the signals Washington
sends and its willingness to enforce sanctions, even on firms or governments
partnered with the United States. The administration will need to make clear
that Syria remains closed for rehabilitation or business under its current
conditions, and demonstrate a renewed effort to deter those who seek to profit
from reconstruction activities overseen by an unreformed regime.
THE CAESAR ACT AND SANCTIONS RELIEF
The United States ostensibly aims to end the Syria war via a UN-run political
process that leads to an inclusive, representative government in Damascus. The
Trump administration no longer maintains that Assad must exit power, but it does
insist that his regime’s behavior change.
Toward this end, the Caesar Act articulates an end state by establishing
criteria that the regime and its allies must meet before sanctions can be
lifted, such as:
Halting the Syrian-Russia air campaign and its deliberate targeting of civilians
and civilian structures
Allowing unfettered humanitarian access to areas under regime/Russian/Iranian
control, in keeping with Washington’s interests as the largest donor of aid to
Syria
Releasing all political prisoners
Taking steps toward compliance with international treaties related to
biological, nuclear, and chemical weapons
Facilitating the safe, voluntary, and dignified return of refugees
Establishing a genuine accountability, truth, and reconciliation process.
Notably, these criteria do not include a demand that the regime engage in the
UN-led political process or insist on Assad’s departure. Yet the act’s tough
conditions suggest that a drastically different regime would have to be in power
before they can be lifted. In that sense, imposing Caesar sanctions can help
signal long-term U.S. commitment to fundamental changes in Syria. The law’s
focus on accountability sets a high bar, since Assad will never concede to
investigations that implicate him and his regime in the commission of war
crimes. If effectively implemented by the State and Treasury Departments and
skillfully messaged to the necessary audiences, Caesar sanctions can make
governments and companies think twice before reestablishing relations with the
regime in its current form or pursuing lucrative reconstruction contracts.
CONCLUSION
Under Assad, life in Syria is increasingly unbearable—hyperinflation and a
currency nosedive have sent the cost of food and medicine beyond the reach of
most citizens, protestors have taken to the streets again in some areas, and the
regime is still committing daily atrocities. The Lebanese financial crisis next
door and the COVID-19 pandemic across the region have exacerbated the economic
collapse, adding to the daily hardships of those living in regime-controlled
areas and straining the resources of Assad’s backers in Moscow and Tehran.
Despite this dire picture, the regime offensive to extend control over the
remaining opposition-held area in Idlib province appears to be restarting. Even
under the most unsustainable conditions—depleted military forces, a collapsed
economy, strained allies, and a global pandemic—Assad is still pursuing a
strategy of military besiegement and terrorizing his own people.
U.S. policy relies on political isolation and economic sanctions to make life so
untenable for Assad and his cronies that he is forced to engage meaningfully in
the UN process. Successive rounds of direct sanctions have thus far not deterred
him from his objective of military victory, which he likely believes will
establish facts on the ground that allow him to dispense with the UN process.
Yet the Caesar Act aims to counter any such wishful thinking, making clear to
Damascus, Moscow, Tehran, and entities profiting from Assad’s war economy that
Washington will not simply accept an unreformed regime in Syria.
To be sure, June 17 will not deliver a decisive blow to a regime that has proven
its durability. The Caesar Act’s effectiveness will depend on whether the
administration can adequately resource its sanctions architecture while
aggressively pursuing a diplomatic off-ramp to a political process. The Treasury
Department will need to keep up a steady drumbeat of new designations to deter
investment and reconstruction. This will require the administration to
prioritize Syria and ensure that those working on new sets of Caesar sanctions
have the support and resources necessary to stay on course for the long haul.
*Dana Stroul is the Kassen Fellow at The Washington Institute and a former
senior professional staff member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Katherine Bauer is the Institute’s Blumenstein-Katz Family Fellow and a former
official at the U.S. Treasury Department.
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 2): Pressuring
Hezbollah in Lebanon
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/June 15/2020
In addition to targeting Hezbollah and other local actors who support the Assad
regime and harm Lebanon’s economy, the new U.S. legislation can help bolster
Beirut’s sovereignty.
As noted in Part 1 of this PolicyWatch, Washington’s imminent implementation of
the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act is setting off alarm bells in Lebanon.
Although the law’s main intent is to punish Bashar al-Assad’s government for
atrocities committed against the Syrian people, the regime would not have been
able to survive long enough to commit these abuses without direct and indirect
support from Lebanese militias, officials, and businesses.
Most notably, Hezbollah was at the forefront of the Syria war for years, helping
Bashar al-Assad conduct his brutal campaigns more efficiently by drawing on
fighters and resources from Lebanon. The group’s deep ties with the regime
persist today, including in the fuel industry and other sectors explicitly
targeted by the Caesar Act. This gives U.S. officials an opportunity to sanction
Lebanese individuals, channels, and instruments that Hezbollah and Damascus use
to keep the regime afloat.
Indeed, the ground is fertile for more pressure on the group and its allies
inside Lebanon. The Hezbollah-led government in Beirut has asked the
International Monetary Fund for an aid package of $10 billion, so local
officials understand the repercussions of defying U.S. law and the broader
international community at this critical moment. Accordingly, Washington and its
partners should make clear that the country cannot expect IMF aid until it
begins cutting specified military and commercial ties with the Assad regime.
Despite what Hezbollah has been telling the Lebanese people, the country can
still save itself by complying with the reforms and conditions laid out by the
IMF, the Paris Conference, and UN Security Council Resolutions 1559 and 1701.
The Caesar Act is a chance to reinforce this argument, while also curbing
Hezbollah’s smuggling activities and strengthening the country’s border
controls.
WHO SHOULD BE ALARMED?
Lebanon has long been connected to Syria politically, economically, and
financially. The fact that the border between the two countries is still not
officially demarcated allows for unchecked daily smuggling operations, making it
difficult to estimate the size of financial exchanges between the two countries.
But some details are evident—as Reuters reported in November, “Wealthy Syrians
are believed to have deposits of billions of dollars in Lebanese banks.” Much of
this money became trapped when Lebanon’s economy cratered and local banks
imposed tight limits on cash withdrawals in U.S. dollars.
Some of these banks and their associated Lebanese partners and businesses may be
subject to new sanctions for materially assisting the Assad regime, particularly
if they are tied in any way to logistical support for Hezbollah military
operations in Syria. Yet the Caesar Act’s most significant effect may be
deterrence—namely, Lebanese companies that were hoping to gain access to the
Syrian market through trade or reconstruction projects will now have to
reconsider those plans.
Fuel smugglers are another important group who could be affected by the act. At
a time when Lebanon cannot afford to lose more of its foreign currency reserves,
Central Bank governor Riad Salameh hinted last month that the country is
hemorrhaging $4 billion per year due to Hezbollah and other actors smuggling
government-subsidized fuel into Syria. Companies involved in these deliveries
are already alarmed, and many locals believe that the Caesar Act was
purposefully created to target smuggling in both directions—not just fuel going
into Syria, but weapons coming into Lebanon. U.S. officials should therefore use
the threat of Caesar sanctions to press Lebanese officials on tightening border
controls and instituting other measures that help curb fuel smuggling via
illegal crossings.
Some of Hezbollah’s political allies should be worried about the new U.S.
legislation as well. Although President Michel Aoun, Free Patriotic Movement
leader Gebran Bassil, and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri have been careful in
their dealings with the Syrian regime, other allies have been less shy in
announcing their military support for Assad, including the Syrian Social
Nationalist Party and the head of the Arab Tawhid Party, Wiam Wahab. For
example, Wahab reportedly sent personnel to fight alongside the regime in past
years (e.g., a number of them were killed during a 2014 clash in Suwayda
province).
STRENGTHENING THE BORDER, SEPARATING FROM ASSAD
By using these and other Syria-related violations as leverage, the Caesar Act
could help Lebanon strengthen its sovereignty and empower its institutions
against nonstate actors. In particular, if the threat of Caesar sanctions
convinces Lebanese officials to formally demarcate their border and begin
properly implementing Security Council Resolutions 1559, 1680, and 1701, then
Hezbollah would be less free to exploit national institutions in support of the
Assad regime next door. Moreover, smugglers would be less free to continue
activities that damage Lebanon’s economy and bring dangerous weapons into its
territory. On the regional level, bolstering Lebanon’s sovereignty would help
the international community put more pressure on Iran’s “land bridge” to Beirut
and the Israeli frontier.
On the diplomatic level, the Caesar Act can be leveraged in two ways. First, it
could help discourage efforts to normalize Lebanese relations with Syria so long
as an unreformed regime holds power in Damascus. When Lebanese activists and
opposition figures raised concerns last month about how fuel smuggling is
hurting the economy, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah stated that the only
solution is to normalize relations in order to properly coordinate with Syria on
resolving the problem. The group prefers this solution because it needs to keep
the estimated 120 illegal crossings under its control, instead of having the
border demarcated and supervised by the Lebanese Armed Forces. Yet Lebanese
citizens (and banks) can no longer afford the damage caused by loose borders and
Hezbollah involvement in Syria.
Second, the Caesar Act can push Lebanon to suspend its longstanding military
agreements and coordination bodies with Damascus. These include the Syrian
Lebanese Higher Council, a body created by the 1991 Treaty of Brotherhood,
Cooperation, and Coordination during the Syrian occupation. According to the
pact—which was not abolished when Syrian troops left Lebanon in 2005—the two
countries “shall endeavor to achieve the highest levels of cooperation and
coordination in the political, economic, security, cultural, scientific, and
other fields.” The treaty also provides a mechanism for institutionalizing this
coordination via several bilateral committees. Moreover, the Defense and
Security Agreement, signed later that year, calls for comprehensive coordination
and cooperation between each country’s military, security, and intelligence
establishments.
The Caesar Act is a strong instrument to reinforce the argument that Lebanon can
no longer be tied to the current Syrian regime on the economic and security
levels. In order to prevent a total economic collapse, the country needs to
distance itself from the Assad-Iran axis and defy any normalization with the
present regime in Damascus. The threat of Caesar sanctions is one way of
prodding Lebanese citizens to realize that clear, firm distancing is a
prerequisite for international aid.
At the same time, U.S. officials should emphasize that the legislation is not
intended to harm Lebanese businesspeople who have not been involved in
supporting the Assad regime. For many local industrialists, merchants, and
farmers, Syria is the only land route to send their goods to the rest of the
region. These businesses need to be reassured that Caesar is not meant to target
them or further damage the fragile economy. Toward that end, the Treasury
Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control should detail the types of
legitimate cross-border trade and transshipment that will not be affected by the
legislation.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Geduld
Program on Arab Politics.
Iranians desperately need a better Voice of America
Alireza Nader/Saeed Ghasseminejad/FDD/June 15/2020
After more than a year of delay, the Senate confirmed Michael Pack as the new
chief executive of the U.S. Agency for Global Media, which oversees the Voice of
America and other government-funded news services. Pack’s confirmation provides
a welcome opportunity for much-needed changes at Voice of America’s Persian
service, which is failing in its mission to report the truth to Iranians
blanketed in propaganda by the country’s Islamist dictatorship.
VOA Persian was once one of the most popular Persian language broadcasting
services in the world, yet fell prey to dysfunctional management and unpopular
programming. To return to its position of leadership, the network must restore
its marginalized talent to positions of influence, rebuild its human capital,
and create flagship programs that appeal to Iranians. In addition, VOA Persian
should commit itself to investigative journalism that exposes the truth behind
the Islamist regime’s disinformation campaigns.
The network should also avoid two key mistakes of the past. First, its coverage
should not favor the alleged “reformist” faction within the Tehran regime. There
are fissures in the regime, but no faction has broken with the militant
anti-Western ideology that animates the Islamic Republic. Second, the network
should avoid entangling itself in Washington’s partisan debates.
The programming these days on VOA Persian has become unappealing. It provides
little insight and information to Iranians seeking to bypass state media’s
propaganda. VOA Persian has more than 1 million followers on Twitter, a
reflection of the popularity it enjoyed a decade ago. Yet now, the network’s
tweets rarely get significant engagement.
One reason the network’s output doesn’t go viral is that VOA Persian does not
provide sufficient and timely coverage of major events such as the mass
demonstrations of November 2019 and the brutal crackdown that followed. VOA’s
programs have little chance of appealing to Iran’s young and repressed
population seeking information and stimulation forbidden by their authoritarian
regime.
The first step to restoring the influence of VOA Persian is to bring back
once-popular but now-extinct flagship programs such as Ofogh, OnTen, Tafsir,
Khabar, and Parazit, programs which can gain a wide audience in Iran and help
the program rebrand itself aggressively. The network should also hire new talent
that not only understands the art of media but also relates to the needs and
wants of Iranian viewers. VOA should also create more original programming and
news coverage rather than borrowing and rerunning material from mainstream U.S.
media. Iranians want original investigative journalism and thought-provoking
discussions rather than anchors just reading the news to them.
Since rebuilding VOA’s in-house talent pool may take time, the network should
contract out some of its programming to Iranian-born producers with deep
experience in Persian language media, many of whom are now helping private
Persian language broadcasters such as Manoto TV and Iran International create
popular and exciting programming.
In addition to talented staff, VOA Persian must challenge the Islamic Republic’s
propaganda and disinformation. Sadly, the agency is now dominated by
Iranian-Americans who cling to the discredited view that there are true
reformers within the Islamist regime, even though the Iranian people know
better.
Instead of favoring the alleged reformists who serve as the Islamic Republic’s
loyal opposition, VOA should give voice to a wider spectrum of Iranian
opposition activists and human rights campaigners. This change would help VOA
counter the regime’s propaganda and disinformation campaigns. By highlighting
the Islamist dictatorship’s corruption, mendacity, and systematic human rights
violations, VOA could fulfill its mission of reporting the truth while
undermining regime propaganda that portrays the United States, not the regime
itself, as the enemy of the people.
Lastly, and perhaps more importantly, VOA Persian requires a systematic change
in its management and work culture so that it welcomes the input of its talented
but marginalized staff. The combination of poor management, partisanship, and
pro-“reformist” bias means that Iranians will continue to view VOA Persian as an
ineffective if not untrustworthy institution. For many Iranians, the network is
not the voice of America but the “voice of the mullahs,” a perception which will
be difficult to erase without fundamental changes.
Fixing VOA Persian will not be an easy task. Nevertheless, VOA Persian still has
a chance of winning back Iranian viewers through a combination of new and bold
leadership, the revitalization of its talent pool, and more objective and
original investigative reporting.
Alireza Nader (@AlirezaNader) is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense
of Democracies.
Saeed Ghasseminejad (@SGhasseminejad) is a senior Iran and financial economics
adviser. They both contribute to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power.
The IAEA Did Its Part Regarding Iran. Now It’s Time for the
World to Act.
Jacob Nagel/Andrea Stricker/FDD/June 15/2020
The global nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has
released new reporting on Iran’s implementation of its agreements under the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). As expected, the report is not positive
for Iran. It paints a disturbing picture of Tehran stonewalling the agency on an
investigation into alleged undeclared nuclear materials and activities directly
related to the development of nuclear weapons. At its next meeting, which begins
on June 15, the IAEA’s board of governors should pass a resolution finding the
Islamic Republic in breach of its non-proliferation obligations. If the
resolution does not persuade Tehran to cooperate, then the board should refer it
to the U.N. Security Council for sanctions.
Iran, as an NPT member-state, has a comprehensive safeguards agreement with the
IAEA and voluntarily applies an add-on agreement, the Additional Protocol. These
legally binding accords, which are separate from the 2015 nuclear deal, require
Tehran to provide complete declarations about its use and production of nuclear
material and to permit immediate and unrestricted inspections by the IAEA at any
site the agency deems necessary to visit.
A key conclusion from the IAEA’s report, issued on June 5 by its
director-general, Rafael M. Grossi, is that since the end of January 2020,
Tehran has refused the IAEA access to two nuclear sites of concern and declined
to answer questions about a third. The IAEA report includes the admonishment,
“For over four months, Iran has denied access to the Agency…and, for almost a
year, has not engaged in substantive discussions to clarify Agency questions
related to possible undeclared nuclear material and nuclear-related activities
in Iran.”
The IAEA provided new details about the three nuclear sites it has on its radar.
On June 10, the Institute for Science and International Security released a
report that attempts to identify the three sites and to characterize the
activities that occurred there.
The first site is Lavisan-Shian. It was located at the former headquarters of
Iran’s pre-2003 nuclear weapons program, the Physics Research Center. The IAEA’s
questions about what happened at Lavisan arose after the agency learned more
from an archive of Iran’s nuclear files that were exfiltrated by Israel in 2018.
The IAEA found that between 2002 and 2003, the Lavisan site may have contained
“natural uranium in the form of a metal disc, with indications of it undergoing
drilling and hydriding.” Such a process could be related to developing a neutron
initiator used in detonating nuclear weapons. Since Iran bulldozed and sanitized
the site from 2003 to 2004, the IAEA wants to know the current location of any
nuclear material that was used there.
The second site likely concerns a past, secret pilot plant for producing uranium
hexafluoride, or UF6, a precursor fuel used in uranium enrichment. The IAEA’s
report contains references to “processing and conversion of uranium ore,
including fluorination in 2003,” a process used to make UF6. The IAEA first
asked Iran about the existence of a pilot UF6 plant in 2003. By 2004, the IAEA
says Iran had razed most of the buildings at the site, but the IAEA would still
like to inspect.
Particles related to uranium hexafluoride production from the potential pilot
UF6 plant appear to have shown up at another site under IAEA investigation, a
warehouse in the Turquz-Abad neighborhood of Tehran. The IAEA found refined
uranium at that site during a visit in January 2019, even though Iran removed
the contents and attempted to scrub it clean.
The third site of interest is likely located near the town of Abadeh. The IAEA
says the site may have involved “use and storage of nuclear material, where
outdoor, conventional explosive testing may have taken place in 2003,” in
relation to nuclear weapons development. Iran also leveled that site over the
summer of 2019.
Adding to Iran’s troubles is an account of the agency’s interactions with regime
officials, as detailed in the IAEA’s report. During the spring, and amid a
threatening pandemic, the IAEA’s head of safeguards carried out a diplomatic
blitz following the IAEA’s January 2020 requests for access and Iran’s initial
denials. The IAEA engaged in multiple, high-level meetings aimed at overcoming
the impasse.
In response, however, Tehran called for “further clarification” and complained
of “legal ambiguities” about its obligations to cooperate, according to the
IAEA’s report. The IAEA forcefully countered that its requests “were strictly in
accordance with [Iran’s] Safeguards Agreement and the Additional Protocol, and,
therefore, there were no legal ambiguities regarding the Agency’s rights and
obligations.”
Certain states, such as Russia, are supporting Iran’s evasions, arguing that the
IAEA’s investigation relates merely to historical issues. Yet the new
information obtained by the IAEA warrants questions, in accordance with the
IAEA’s mandate, as to whether activities with military nuclear applications have
continued today and all nuclear materials in Iran remain in peaceful uses.
Perhaps most suspiciously, Iran continues to destroy sites of concern and move
or hide equipment and materials. There is no statute of limitations in Iran’s
safeguards agreements on investigating allegations or suspicions of undeclared
nuclear material.
The IAEA can go only so far in investigating and reporting on its findings. It
has done its job to report Iran’s non-compliance, and it is now up to the board
of governors to act. The board can support the agency by passing a resolution by
two-thirds of its 35 member-states finding Tehran in breach of the NPT and
calling for immediate and full cooperation. It should also call for a special,
Iran-focused board meeting and create a sub-group to further define and assess
Iran’s non-compliance.
If the board does not act now, and Tehran continues to obstruct, the IAEA risks
losing integrity, relevance and authority as the world’s protector of peaceful
uses of nuclear energy.
The E3, or the United Kingdom, France and Germany, which have so far been quiet
on the matter, should stand firmly behind the IAEA. The E3 remain harshly
critical of the United States for withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal,
formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and blame
Washington for Iran’s subsequent breaches of the accord. Yet Iran’s NPT and
safeguards violations represent breaches of entirely separate agreements that
long predate the JCPOA, so the E3 cannot point a finger at Washington.
If Iran persists in trying to maintain what is likely a latent nuclear weapons
program, the board should refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council to
re-impose sanctions lifted by the JCPOA and to impose additional penalties, as
warranted, aimed at achieving Iran’s full NPT compliance.
It is past time for the world to unite around the threat of Iran’s nuclear
program. This should start with the IAEA’s board of governors recognizing that
Tehran’s nuclear program is not peaceful. The world should demand full answers.
*Brig.-Gen. (res.) Jacob Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense
of Democracies (FDD) and a visiting professor at the Technion Aerospace
Engineering Faculty. He previously served as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s
acting national security advisor and head of the National Security Council.
*Andrea Stricker is a research fellow focusing on nonproliferation at FDD.
Follow her on Twitter @StrickerNonpro. FDD is a non-partisan research institute
focusing on foreign policy and national security issues.
After COVID-19, It’s Time for Washington to Embrace a
Bolder Taiwan Strategy/The time has come for a rethink of U.S. Taiwan policy.
Craig Singleton/The Diplomat/June 15/2020
After moving decisively to tighten its grip over Hong Kong, the Chinese
government appears eager to ramp up its efforts to intimidate Taiwan. To that
end, Beijing’s armed forces have conducted a series of provocative maneuvers
around Taiwan and have signaled plans for a large-scale drill simulating the
seizure of a strategic island under Taipei’s control.
While China’s actions do not portend a near-term invasion, they are driven, in
part, by a sense of fear and embarrassment in Beijing, as the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) cannot accept that Taipei’s democratically-elected government proved
more adept at responding to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Rather than minimize Beijing’s actions as an attempt to distract from the
pandemic, the United States and its allies should embrace a bold diplomatic
strategy and further knock China off-balance.
Since recognizing mainland China in 1979, the U.S. has carefully side-stepped
cabinet-level meetings with Taiwanese leaders. To send an unmistakable signal to
Beijing, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo should lead a senior bipartisan
delegation to Taipei for meetings with President Tsai Ing-wen and her cabinet.
China would, of course, strenuously object to such meetings and threaten
retaliation. Beijing made similar threats after President Trump’s 2016 call with
Tsai as well as before previous dialogues between U.S. presidents and the Dalai
Lama, such as the 2014 White House meeting between the Tibetan leader and Barack
Obama. Yet the noise from Beijing was little more than bluster. The mainland’s
threats would be especially hollow at the moment, given that Taiwan’s superior
response to COVID-19 undermines the CCP’s legitimacy while Chinese citizens are
confronting the economic fallout from the pandemic and quietly questioning
President Xi Jinping’s leadership.
Meetings with Tsai and her cabinet would send a strong message that Beijing does
not get a vote in our diplomatic engagements and that U.S. decision-makers from
both parties are willing and eager to stand up to China’s threats. A fitting
figure to join Secretary Pompeo would be the chair of the House Foreign Affairs
Committee, Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY), a principled advocate of human rights and a
strong defender of Taiwan.
While the White House’s recently released China strategy details the severity of
the threat Beijing poses to the United States and its allies, the report is
short on bold ideas for strengthening America’s partnership with Taiwan.
One key proposal for the U.S. delegation to discuss in Taiwan is a bilateral
trade deal to help the island diversify its economy and reduce its over-reliance
on China. In support of a deal, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed the TAIPEI
Act, which urges both countries to begin negotiating a trade pact and for the
U.S. to develop a strategy to support other countries that have “strengthened,
enhanced or upgraded relations with Taiwan.” While there will likely be sticking
points around the import of U.S. beef and pork, enhanced economic cooperation
between Taiwan, the United States, and other allies would go a long way toward
inoculating the island from Beijing’s economic bullying and help lift the
broader global economy following the post-pandemic downturn.
The Trump administration should also re-think its plans to withdraw from the
World Health Organization (WHO) and instead demand that Taiwan be allowed to
join the international body as part of any future restructuring efforts. Given
the president’s fondness for criticizing Beijing’s handling of COVID-19, he
should welcome the opportunity to hold up Taipei’s pandemic response as a model
for other countries to emulate. The blow to China’s psyche would be palpable, as
Beijing has been working in overdrive to assume key leadership posts in
international fora in an attempt to rewrite the U.S.-led rules-based order.
It’s also time for the United States to leverage China’s COVID-19 deceptions to
shore up broader international support for Taiwan, as Taipei’s circle of friends
has steadily decreased over the last few years. For starters, the United States
should quickly and discreetly begin engaging those countries most likely to
consider switching recognition to Taiwan and then work behind the scenes to
incentivize such announcements. This novel tactic has the secondary effect of
differentiating our peaceful, diplomatic approach with China’s menacing behavior.
Lastly, the U.S. government should get creative about asymmetric ways to
challenge China’s aura of invincibility in the South China Sea. These overt or
covert actions could initially focus on campaigns aimed at exposing Chinese
malign activities, such the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing vessel by the
Chinese Coast Guard, as well as symbolic gestures, such as peaceful military
flyovers of contested airspace and increased intelligence sharing with regional
partners.
The time has come to put old thinking to bed and embrace big, bold ideas. It is
clear China already has. Perhaps it is finally our turn.
*Craig Singleton is a national security expert and former diplomat who currently
serves as an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD)
for its China Program.
Syria's Dictator Faces Renewed Challenges at All Levels
Jonathan Spyer/The Jerusalem Post/June 15/2020
No major combat operations are currently under way in Syria. But while the civil
war which began in 2011 may be effectively over, events in the country indicate
that no clear winner has emerged from the conflict. Syria appears set to remain
divided, impoverished and dominated by competing external powers.
The Assad regime, meanwhile, is beset by infighting at top levels, even as
significant unrest returns to regime controlled areas.
In late 2018, the regime appeared on the verge of strategic victory in the war.
The rebels had lost their final holdings in the south of the country. President
Trump had announced an imminent withdrawal from north east Syria. The remaining
rebels in the north west were isolated, and dominated by extreme Sunni jihadi
elements.
But the sense that one final round of diplomatic and military action could
restore pre-2011 Syria has receded to the far distance. The Americans, despite
periodic presidential tweets, are still there. The rebels, meanwhile, have
benefited from deepening Turkish patronage and the desire of the Russians to
draw Turkey closer. As a result, Syria remains territorially divided, with the
regime controlling just over 60% of the country.
Syria remains territorially divided, with the regime controlling just over 60%
of the country.
But even in the areas under his control, Assad is not succeeding in returning
stability and re-consolidating his rule. The problem is first of all economic.
Syria is a smoking ruin. Neither Assad, nor his patrons in Moscow and Teheran,
have the money to begin desperately needed reconstruction. The Europeans and the
US, meanwhile, will not offer assistance for as long as the regime refuses all
prospects of political transition.
This stalemate is not endlessly sustainable. Lack of money makes rebuilding
impossible. This in turn leads to renewed instability. The economic fortunes of
the Assads have deteriorated significantly further in recent weeks. The Syrian
pound is in freefall. The official exchange rate is now 700 Syrian pounds to the
dollar. The current black market rate is 2300 Syrian pounds to the dollar. Prior
to 2011, the rate stood at 50 to one.
Around 80% of Syrians are living below the poverty line.
Around 80% of Syrians are living below the poverty line. Long daily queues for
subsidized bread are a familiar site in Damascus. Now, as a result of the
devaluation of the currency, even basic foodstuffs stand beyond the reach of
many Syrian families. Inflation is currently at 20%.
Ahmad al-Rashid, a Syrian refugee now resident in the UK, described the
situation in the following terms in a Facebook post after conversations with
friends remaining in Syria: 'People can't afford to buy basics now. I spoke to
some people in the country and they are losing their minds. Money doesn't have
any value anymore! Bakeries are closing, doctors are closing, shops are closing,
businesses are closing. Millions of parents aren't able to put food on the table
for their kids. They can't buy food or milk for their babies. Some people are
offering to sell their organs so they can help their families."
This depiction is not limited to individuals associated with the opposition.
Danny Makki, a journalist with close connections in Syrian government circles,
tweeted on 7.6 that "the economic situation in Syria is at breaking point,
medicine is very scarce, hunger is becoming a normality. Poverty is at the worst
point ever, people even selling their organs to survive.'
A number of factors are causing the current predicament, in addition to
sanctions and the isolation and stagnation of regime controlled Syria. Covid 19
and the resultant three month lockdown have devastated the already weakened
private business sector.
The travails of neighboring Lebanon have also impacted on Syria. Many Syrians
placed their savings in US dollars in Lebanese banks. The current crisis in
Lebanon has led to restrictions on withdrawal of dollars. This in turn has led
to a dollar shortage in Syria, and further devaluation of the local currency.
President Donald Trump signs the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act as part of
the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in December 2019, penalizing third
party countries that do business with Assad's Syria.
This already critical situation is about to get worse. In mid-June, the US
Caesar Act will take effect. Named after a Syrian military police photographer
who in 2014 first provided evidence of mass killings in regime jails, the new
sanctions contained in this Act are set to severely penalize anyone doing
business with Assad's Syria.
The Caesar Act was passed into law in the US in December 2019 as part of the
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020. It focuses on the
infrastructure, petroleum and military maintenance sectors, and contains
provisions for penalties against third parties doing business with Syria. This
is set to deter third party countries such as China and the United Arab Emirates
who have shown interest in investment in reconstruction in Syria.
Against the background of economic meltdown, grassroots level unrest has
reappeared in regime controlled areas. In Deraa Province, in the south west of
the country, a renewed low level insurgency is under way. According to the
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, 489 attacks have taken place on regime
forces in the province since last June. The Observatory puts the death toll in
these attacks at 322. The largest scale single act of violence in recent months
took place on May 4, when former rebel commander Qasem al-Subehi led an attack
of 15 former rebels on a police station outside the town of Muzayrib in western
Deraa in which nine regime policemen were killed. The Syrian Army's 4th Division
is currently building up forces in the area.
Grassroots level unrest has reappeared in regime controlled areas.
In Suweida Province, which has a 90% Druze population, stormy demonstrations
have taken place over the last week. This is of particular significance because
Suweida has throughout the war maintained an uneasy coexistence with the regime.
The demonstrations are small – involving about 300 young men and women. That
they are happening at all will nevertheless be worrying for defenders of the
regime. The latter will presumably also have noted that the demonstrators in
Suweida have revived many of the slogans of the first days of the uprising.
These include 'Syria belongs to us – not to the house of Assad,' 'A free Syria –
out with Iran and Russia,' and 'The people demand the fall of the regime.'
Elsewhere in Syria, in a notable sign of the times, the 'Syrian Interim
Government' (a Turkish-backed administrative body in the Turkish-controlled
north west) announced this week that the Syrian pound would be replaced by the
Turkish lira in its area of control. This decision appears to have followed a
notable trend in recent months in which sellers and merchants sought to price
goods in the more stable Turkish currency. The Turkish Postal Directorate, which
maintains facilities in Turkish controlled parts of north west Syria, has now
begun to circulate large quantities of Turkish currency in the area.
Tensions have erupted at the highest levels of the Assad regime.
Lastly, of course, evidence has recently emerged of tensions at the highest
levels in the regime. Assad recently turned on a former key ally at the very
heart of his regime, his cousin, Rami Makhlouf, in a move rumored to relate to
clashing ambitions between Makhlouf and Asma Assad, the president's wife.
Bashar Assad is not about to fall. But severe economic deterioration, regime
infighting, re-ignited unrest from below and fresh sanctions about to bite are
combining to place his regime under renewed, severe pressure. It is all a long
way from the victory parades of just two years ago.
*Jonathan Spyer is director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis
and a Ginsburg/Ingerman Writing Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Today in History: Islam Ascends a European Field of Carrion
Raymond Ibrahim/June 15/2020
Today, June 15, 1389, a pivotal military encounter between Islam and the West
took place: the battle of Kosovo. In its wake, Islam became a dominant force in
Eastern Europe, subjugating much of the Balkans ’til the early twentieth
century. The story of that battle — and why Eastern Europe’s modern-day
descendants remain wary of the religion of Muhammad — follows:
As he lay dying in 1323, the Turkic founder of the Ottoman empire, Osman Bey —
whose then small emirate was centered in westernmost Anatolia (or Asia Minor) —
told his son and successor, Orhan, “to propagate Islam by yours arms” into
Eastern Europe.
This his son zealously did; the traveler Ibn Batutua, who once met Orhan in
Bursa, observed that, although the jihadi had captured some one hundred
Byzantine fortresses, “he had never stayed for a whole month in any one town,”
because he “fights with the infidels continually and keeps them under siege.”
Christian cities fell like dominoes: Smyrna in 1329, Nicaea in 1331, and
Nicomedia in 1337. By 1340, the whole of northwest Anatolia was under Turkic
control. By now and to quote a European contemporary, “the foes of the cross,
and the killers of the Christian people, that is, the Turks, [were] separated
from Constantinople by a channel of three or four miles.”
By 1354, the Ottoman Turks, under Orhan’s son, Suleiman, managed to cross over
the Dardanelles and into the abandoned fortress town of Gallipoli, thereby
establishing their first foothold in Europe: “Where there were churches he
destroyed them or converted them to mosques,” writes an Ottoman chronicler:
“Where there were bells, Suleiman broke them up and cast them into fires. Thus,
in place of bells there were now muezzins.”
Cleansed of all Christian “filth,” Gallipoli became, as a later Ottoman bey
boasted, “the Muslim throat that gulps down every Christian nation — that chokes
and destroys the Christians.” From this dilapidated but strategically situated
fortress town, the Ottomans launched a campaign of terror throughout the
countryside, always convinced they were doing God’s work. “They live by the bow,
the sword, and debauchery, finding pleasure in taking slaves, devoting
themselves to murder, pillage, spoil,” explained Gregory Palamas, an Orthodox
metropolitan who was taken captive in Gallipoli, adding, “[A]nd not only do they
commit these crimes, but even — what an aberration — they believe that God
approves them!”
After Orhan’s death in 1360 and under his son Murad I — the first of his line to
adopt the title “Sultan” — the westward jihad into the Balkans began in earnest
and was unstoppable. By 1371, he had annexed portions of Bulgaria and Macedonia
to his sultanate, which now so engulfed Constantinople that “a citizen could
leave the empire simply by walking outside the city gates.”
Unsurprisingly, then, when Prince Lazar of Serbia (b. 1330) defeated Murad’s
invading forces in 1387, “there was wild rejoicing among the Slavs of the
Balkans. Serbians, Bosnians, Albanians, Bulgarians, Wallachians, and Hungarians
from the frontier provinces all rallied around Lazar as never before, in a
determination to drive the Turks out of Europe.”
Murad responded to this effrontery on June 15, 1389, in Kosovo. There, a
Serbian-majority coalition augmented by Hungarian, Polish, and Romanian
contingents — twelve thousand men under the leadership of Lazar — fought thirty
thousand Ottomans under the leadership of the sultan himself. Despite the
initial downpour of Turkic arrows, the Serbian heavy cavalry plummeted through
the Ottoman frontlines and broke the left wing; the Ottoman right, under Murad’s
elder son Bayezid, reeled around and engulfed the Christians. The chaotic clash
continued for hours.
On the night before battle, Murad had besought Allah “for the favour of dying
for the true faith, the martyr’s death.” Sometime near the end of battle, his
prayer was granted. According to tradition, Miloš Obilić, a Serbian knight,
offered to defect to the Ottomans on condition that, in view of his own high
rank, he be permitted to submit before the sultan himself. They brought him
before Murad and, after Miloš knelt in false submission, he lunged at and
plunged a dagger deep into the Muslim warlord’s stomach (other sources say “with
two thrusts which came out at his back”). The sultan’s otherwise slow guards
responded by hacking the Serb to pieces. Drenched in and spluttering out blood,
Murad lived long enough to see his archenemy, the by now captured Lazar, brought
before him, tortured, and beheaded. A small conciliation, it may have put a
smile on the dying martyr’s face.
19th century woodcut of Miloš Obilić stabbing Sultan Murad I
Murad’s son Bayezid instantly took charge: “His first act as Sultan, over his
father’s dead body, was to order the death, by strangulation with a bowstring,
of his brother. This was Yaqub, his fellow-commander in the battle, who had won
distinction in the field and popularity with his troops.” Next, Bayezid brought
the battle to a decisive end; he threw everything he had at the enemy, leading
to the slaughter of every last Christian — but even more of his own men in the
process.
So many birds flocked to and feasted on the vast field of carrion that posterity
remembered Kosovo as the “Field of Blackbirds.” Though essentially a draw — or
at best a Pyrrhic victory for the Ottomans — the Serbs, with fewer men and
resources to start with in comparison to the ascendant Muslim empire, felt the
sting more.
In the years following the battle of Kosovo, the Ottoman war machine became
unstoppable. The nations of the Balkans were conquered by the Muslims — after
withstanding a millennium of jihads, Constantinople itself permanently fell to
Islam in 1453 — and they remained under Ottoman rule for centuries.
The collective memory of Eastern Europeans’ not too distant experiences with and
under Islam should never be underestimated when considering why they are
significantly more wary of — if not downright hostile to — Islam and its
migrants compared to their Western, liberal counterparts.
As Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán once explained:
We don’t want to criticize France, Belgium, any other country, but we think all
countries have a right to decide whether they want to have a large number of
Muslims in their countries. If they want to live together with them, they can.
We don’t want to and I think we have a right to decide that we do not want a
large number of Muslim people in our country. We do not like the consequences of
having a large number of Muslim communities that we see in other countries, and
I do not see any reason for anyone else to force us to create ways of living
together in Hungary that we do not want to see[.] … I have to say that when it
comes to living together with Muslim communities, we are the only ones who have
experience because we had the possibility to go through that experience for 150
years.
Those years —1541 to 1699, when the Islamic Ottoman Empire occupied Hungary —
are replete with the massacre, enslavement, and rape of Hungarians.
Note: The above account was excerpted from the author’s recent book, Sword and
Scimitar: Fourteen Centuries of War between Islam and the West. Raymond Ibrahim
is a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center, a Judith Rosen
Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at
the Gatestone Institute.
Erdogan’s Foreign Adventures May Prove Costly for Turkey
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/June,15/2020
Few people know that Turkey has a military base in Mogadishu, far from its
borders, and that Turkey’s largest embassy in the world is in the Somali
capital; noting the only thing in common between Libya and Somalia is that they
are both torn by war.
Turkey has also had a foothold in Sudan’s Suakin Island, but its plan to build a
military base there collapsed with the ouster of president Omar Al-Bashir, as
the new leadership in Khartoum canceled all military agreements with Ankara.
Are these Turkish red circles scattered on the map of the region the fruits of a
well-planned policy, an expansionist project or just the reactions of a
narcissist?
During the early years of the war in Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan was reluctant to cross the borders militarily. Today, however, his
forces are inside Syria, but they have lost most of their main battles against
the Russians and the forces of the Assad regime, as well as against the
Americans. The areas assigned by the Turkish government as border crossings
inside Syria have shrunk.
Against this backdrop, Erdogan has been keen to broadcast the news of his
forces’ victories in Libya to the Turkish people, who are depressed by their
poor and deteriorating living conditions. His plan was to spread a stream of
news promising his people gains, most notably the signing of oil agreements with
Libya, and his intention to explore the areas he has drawn as a maritime border
in the Mediterranean, despite Greek objections. He has also hurried to talk
about oil discoveries.
But all the happy news may be nothing more than an attempt to raise the morale
of the Turkish people, who have been receiving successive economic blows, one
after another, for two years now due to political reasons.
The damage done by Turkey’s military adventures in the region, often funded by
the small country of Qatar looking for a regional power to climb on, is not to
be underestimated.
Indeed, the Turkish president is following in the footsteps of the Iranian
regime and its expansion in the region, with the latter’s plans set off by the
signing of the nuclear deal and its forces’ deployment in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Following the Iranian model, Turkey is using foreign militias in its war in
Libya, and there are reports of its intervention in Yemen too. It has also used
Syrian militias to strike the Kurds of the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Well, these adventures and military bases do not tell us what Erdogan’s policy
is, if there is one. Why? What is the expected outcome?
Last December, Malaysia hosted an Islamic summit limited to Erdogan and the
presidents of Iran, Indonesia and the emir of Qatar, claiming to study the
affairs of the Islamic nation. There, Erdogan tried to present himself as their
leader, and to make the summit an alternative to the Organization of Islamic
Cooperation in Makkah.
However, the summit failed, and Malaysia tried to make it clear that the Turks’
statements did not reflect their point of view. Later, Malaysia’s Prime
Minister, Mahathir Mohammed, ousted from his ethnic Malay political party in
May, was dismissed.
On the other hand, Erdogan’s project calls for building a major regional power
parallel to Iran, and possibly replacing it, given that the US blockade of the
Iranians has already weakened them considerably. Turkey, with its 80 million
people, assumes regional roles in Central Asia but has not succeeded much
against Russia and Iran.
Unlike Saudi Arabia and Iran, with their huge oil reserves, Turkey is a country
without substantial financial resources and with an economy largely dependent on
Russian tourism, European markets and Turkish remittances from the West. This is
why Erdogan is relying on Qatari support to save him from every crisis, such as
the coronavirus pandemic that has halted the economy and the collapse of the
lira, which was a concern until Doha gave him $15 billion.
At the moment, Turkey is present in three seas: The Black Sea, the Mediterranean
Sea and the Red Sea. The expected result of its political expansion and military
involvement will not be the spread of the influence of the ruler of Ankara, but
rather weakening it; as he will not be able to act freely in a vast and troubled
region without powerful allies.
Erdogan is still facing undecided tests, such as in the war in Syria, Russian
missiles issue, and his military dispute with the Americans.
A Drop of Humility and Complicity
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/June,15/2020
The Libyans are lost. They cannot predict when Libya will return to itself.
Internal battles, mixed with imported wars, do not bode well.
Ghassan Salame tried, in vain, to persuade local players to conspire in order to
reclaim their country from regional and international actors. He tried to
convince the fighters and the conflicting parties. He held talks, drafted
articles and organized conferences… The Libyans were dragged to the Berlin
clinic to be examined by international senior doctors. All of that didn’t work.
Salame left the stage, which was further inflamed by the open appetite of Recep
Tayyip Erdogan’s regime.
The Libyans are lost, so is the country itself. How hard it is for foreign flags
to multiply on your land and for the fires to intensify. How hard it is to see
militia weapons proliferate and mercenaries spread. The feast of oil and gas
increases internal hatreds and external grudges.
It is a painful yet common story. You start with an internal race over
decision-making. The ambition to monopolize power and eliminate the other leads
to war. In war, aid and alliances are bound to lead quickly to dependence.
The local player is under the illusion that he is getting stronger as he reaches
out to an ally outside the map. He forgets that he is the weaker party and that
his ally would soon turn him into a soldier and a servant for his agenda.
External powers were never charities, even if covered with ideological fig
leaves or something similar.
The Libyans are lost. They have no emergency number to call. Nothing justifies
contacting the Arab League. Its good intentions are matched by its lack of
potential. There is no point in resorting to the African Union; it acts like a
retired wise man. Guterres, despite his efforts, does not seem to be able to
save a country whose people had not yet agreed to save themselves.
What has Libya done to be tormented for four long decades under the colonel, his
revolution and his Green Book? What has it done to be tortured under the
colonel’s successors and then becomes a field of experiments for the weapons and
policies of exploitative policies? What is Libya’s fault for letting the world
allow the Turkish president to pump mercenaries into its veins, and let the
“Kremlin master” interfere with it as well?
Libya is sailing in tormented seas, while its fighters lack a drop of humility
and collusion that helps them regain their map from the hands of external
players.
The Syrians, too, are lost. The Syrian fate is put on hold. Millions of them
have lost hope in the refugee camps, while others, at home, fear the beast of
hunger as the local currency was hit hard and panic mounted on the eve of the
implementation of the Caesar Act.
A powerful Syria fell into the trap of those who are stronger. Many proxy wars
are taking place on its soil against its will, and many truces are concluded
without consulting it. The Russian master is controlling the Israeli raids, the
Iranian expansion and the Turkish interferences. He is about to discuss, with
the American general, the country’s future, with the absence of the latter.
External powers are not charities. They only coexist on a map to control its
oil, its wheat and its water. Despite all the devastation that occurred, the
Syrians did not show a drop of humility and collusion that helped them launch
the journey to regain their map and return Syria to itself.
It’s even crueler to hear that the fate of Syria will remain unknown, pending
the crystallization of the future of US-Iranian relations and that of Turkey’s
regional role. Those are very tough words. Syria, which is trapped by armies,
militias and flags, will see the poor, the hard-liners and the extremists
increase in numbers, if it fails to become a normal country again.
The Lebanese too, are lost. They say that the Lebanese fate is also dependent on
the future of relations between Washington and Tehran. The months leading up to
the US presidential election will not be easy. The presidents recognized that
their powers are limited to sharing seats in a ruined state, while the fate of
the state itself is left to a game greater than theirs.
The Lebanese are currently subjected to all kinds of humiliation that they did
not encounter even during the darkest chapters of war.
With all due respect to the positions and their residents, and regardless of the
concessions that led them to those positions, the smell of failure surrounds
official headquarters. Officials have failed to address the humiliated citizens.
They have failed to talk to the international community, throwing allegations
and lies that ignored the lurking hunger.
It is a tragedy of men, who do not know their countries and do not know the
world. Men, who lack humility in a country that does not allow such a number of
egoists. Men, who lack the virtue of national complicity in a fragile country
that cannot afford this high number of adventurers and teenagers.
Lebanon has no interest in the failure of the Michel Aoun term, but the latter
has not succeeded in boarding the train and engaging its citizens in the
journey. Lebanon has no interest in the failure of Hassan Diab’s government, but
the latter’s little modesty suggests that he is almost isolated in the chaotic
republic.
The Libyans need a drop of humility and collusion. The Syrians and Lebanese need
the same treatment. The same applies for Iraq, where the poor are multiplying,
while the country boasts amazing wealth but is threatened by the continued
absence of a drop of humility and national complicity.