English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 29/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Here is my servant, whom I have chosen, my beloved, with whom my soul is well pleased. I will put my Spirit upon him, and he will proclaim justice to the Gentiles
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 12/14-21/:”But the Pharisees went out and conspired against him, how to destroy him. When Jesus became aware of this, he departed. Many crowds followed him, and he cured all of them, and he ordered them not to make him known. This was to fulfil what had been spoken through the prophet Isaiah: ‘Here is my servant, whom I have chosen, my beloved, with whom my soul is well pleased. I will put my Spirit upon him, and he will proclaim justice to the Gentiles. He will not wrangle or cry aloud, nor will anyone hear his voice in the streets. He will not break a bruised reed or quench a smouldering wick until he brings justice to victory. And in his name the Gentiles will hope.’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 28-29/2020
Lebanon's Higher Defense Council Calls for Lockdown Extension, Aoun Condemns Israeli Aggression
Lebanon Reinstates Lockdown Measures after Virus Rebound
Lebanese Cabinet Files Complaint to UN over Israeli Aggression
Germany Arrests Lebanese-German Woman Accused of Joining IS in Syria
Diab Voices Concern after Israel Border Clash
Mustaqbal Slams Govt. 'Absence' as to South Flare-Up
Hariri Says STL Verdicts to Fulfill Justice, Urges Patience, Calm
Jumblat: Lebanese Earned an Unenviable Government
Geagea Blames Hizbullah and Its Allies for Lebanon's Ongoing Crisis
Netanyahu Warns Hizbullah that Israel is 'Ready for Any Scenario'
Israel Sends Reinforcements to Its Northern Frontier
Iran, Hezbollah are unable to fully respond to increase in Israeli attacks: Experts
Lebanon PM Diab posts, deletes tweet decrying country's security situation
Lebanon’s PM Diab urges caution amid Israel’s ‘dangerous military escalation’
Lebanese PM Urges Caution amid Heightened Border Tensions with Israel
Netanyahu: Hezbollah should know that IDF is prepared for all scenarios
Hezbollah opens door to new 'retaliation' by denying clashes with IDF
Was Mount Dov incident another Hollywood show for Hezbollah?
IDF sends reinforcements north over concern of more Hezbollah attacks
Did Hezbollah paint itself into a corner over 'retaliation policy?'
Hezbollah Has Tried to Infiltrate Combatants into Territory Controlled by Israel/Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/July 28/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 28-29/2020
Israeli Strikes Kill 60 Pro-Iranian Fighters In Syria in 3 Months
Israeli Security Service Tightens Protection Around Netanyahu
Iran uses new satellite to track war games in Strait of Hormuz
US Navy calls Iran military exercise in Gulf ‘irresponsible and reckless’
Explosion in Iran's Kermanshah province, no casualties reported - Mizan
Fuel tankers explode in western Iran causing major fire: ISNA
British-Australian scholar moved to Iran’s Qarchak prison amid COVID-19 outbreak
Third Iraq Protester Dies of Tear Gas Canister Wound this Week
Russian Navy Holds Parade in Tartous
Turkey’s social media draft bill presages ‘new dark era’ of censorship, say critics
US, Europe call for release of businessman jailed in Turkey for 1,000 days
Sudan’s Hemedti Reveals Receiving Death Threats
 

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 28-29/2020

Iran: The Mullahs Are Excited/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/July 28/2020
Trump Should Teach Erdogan a Lesson in Law, Not Corruption/Aykan Erdemir/John Lechner/FDD/July 28/2020
There’s a Bigger Threat Than Big Tech. It’s Big China/Emily de La Bruyère/Nathan Picarsic/FDD/July 28/2020
Fed Hawks Are Endangered in the Covid Slowdown/John Authers/Bloomberg/July, 28/2020
The Vital Reasons for Harmony between Red Sea, Aden Gulf Countries/Dya-Eddine Said Bamakhrama/Asharq Al Awsat/July 28/2020
Law Enforcement Doesn’t Need a Backdoor to Data/Michael Chertoff/Bloomberg/July, 28/2020
 

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 28-29/2020

Lebanon's Higher Defense Council Calls for Lockdown Extension, Aoun Condemns Israeli Aggression
Naharnet/July 28/2020
The Higher Defense council convened at the Baabda Presidential Palace for talks on the latest security developments in South Lebanon, and the recommendations to reimpose a lockdown over the resurgence of coronavirus cases in Lebanon.
President Michel Aoun chaired the meeting and condemned “the Israeli enemy aggression on the South yesterday, and considered this a threat to the climate of stability in southern Lebanon." The HDC decided to impose partial lockdown over COVID-19 as of today, and a complete one as of Thursday, for a period of 5 days, to be followed by a 2-day break, and another 5 days of complete lockdown, after which the outcomes will be evaluated. The Minister of Health Hamad Hassan indicated that the present data portended a delicate and dangerous situation.
It was also decided to extend the general mobilization until August 30. Aoun chaired the meeting in the presence of PM Hassan Diab, Ministers of: Defense Zeina Akar, Foreign Ministry Nasif Hitti, Finance Ghazi Wazni, Interior Mohammed Fahmi, Economy and Trade Raoul Nehme, Health Hamad Hassan, Public Works and Transportation Michel Najjar and Justice Marie-Claude Najm. The meeting was also attended by Army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun, General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim, ISF chief Maj. Gen. Imad Othman and several other military and security officials. As per regulations, the decisions of the Higher Defense Council are kept secret.

Lebanon Reinstates Lockdown Measures after Virus Rebound
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 28/2020
The Lebanese government agreed Tuesday to reinforce coronavirus lockdown measures after a spike in new cases threatened to overwhelm the crisis-hit country's healthcare system. Lebanon, a country of some six million people, has recorded a total of 3,879 cases of COVID-19, including 51 deaths. It has gradually lifted lockdown measures and in early July opened Beirut airport to commercial flights after a closure of more than three months. But new cases have increased since restaurants, bars, clubs and resorts reopened. On Saturday, Lebanon recorded 175 new cases, its highest daily number of infections. To stem a larger outbreak, the government ordered a nationwide lockdown from July 30 until August 3, coinciding with the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, Information Minister Manal Abdel Samad said after a cabinet meeting.
The lockdown will be suspended from August 3 until August 6, with restaurants and cafes allowed to reopen at 50 per cent capacity while nightclubs, bars, indoor pools and public parks remain closed. It will then go back into force for another five days, after which authorities will reassess whether stricter measures need to be taken. The Tourism Ministry meanwhile announced that all restaurants, cafes and touristic and entertainment institutions will be closed during the general lockdown days while food delivery services will be suspended. The pandemic struck as Lebanon was already mired in its worst economic crisis in decades, prompting fears that the country's fragile health system could collapse. "We are in a new phase in our war against the coronavirus pandemic," Prime Minister Hassan Diab said on Tuesday. "We must take strict measures to protect our people."Firass Abiad, the head of the Rafik Hariri University Hospital, the country's main coronavirus hospital, warned on Sunday that Lebanon is "on the brink of losing control" and backed calls for a renewed lockdown. "We need a timeout. It will allow us to reorganise, get our act together," he said on Twitter.

Lebanese Cabinet Files Complaint to UN over Israeli Aggression
Naharnet/July 28/2020
The Cabinet convened on Tuesday at the Presidential Palace in Baabda to discuss 29 items on its agenda, in addition to the military escalation on Monday by Israel after a security incident at the border led the Jewish state to fire artillery across the frontier. The Cabinet decided to file a complaint to the United Nations (UN) Security Council against Israel's aggression in South Lebanon on Monday, reports said. According to LBCI TV station, the Cabinet instructed Minister of Finance Ghazi Wazni to sign the contracts with KPMG and Oliver Wyman, and with Alvarez and Marsal. On the sidelines of the session, the ministers underwent PCR tests. President Michel Aoun said the resurgence of coronavirus cases are “rising dangerously and that strict preventive measures must be taken.” He referred to the decision of the Higher Defense Council on the virus, taken shortly before the Cabinet convened, saying the precautions must be strictly respected to counter the negative threats of the virus. The President also briefed the Cabinet on his talks with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. He said the French diplomat welcomed Lebanon’s adoption of “forensic financial audit considering it an effective step to build the State."

Germany Arrests Lebanese-German Woman Accused of Joining IS in Syria
Associated Press/Naharnet/July 28/2020
German authorities on Tuesday arrested a woman accused of traveling to Syria with her four young children to join the Islamic State group, as well as her brother-in-law, who is accused of helping her. The federal prosecutor's office identified the pair only as Fadia S. and Rabih O., in line with German privacy rules. It said both are dual citizens of Germany and Lebanon, and they were arrested in Essen and Hildesheim respectively. Fadia S. is accused of offenses including membership in IS and gross violation of her parental duties. Rabih O. is accused of supporting IS and violating German export laws. Prosecutors said Fadia S. traveled to Syria in 2015 to join her husband, who had previously left Germany to join IS. She took her children, then aged 3 to 8, and the family allegedly lived in accommodation in the IS stronghold of Raqqa that the group had commandeered. As the territory held by IS shrank, Fadia S. and her by-then five children fled to Turkey in early 2018 and returned to Germany, prosecutors said. Rabih O. is accused of giving his brother a variety of financial and logistical support and of helping Fadia S. travel to Syria to join him.

Diab Voices Concern after Israel Border Clash
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 28/2020
PM Hassan Diab voiced concern during the Higher Defense Council meeting on Tuesday of Israel’s recent “dangerous military aggression” in South Lebanon, warning of its bid to change the tasks of peacekeeping forces in Lebanon and rules of engagement. “Israel assaulted Lebanon's sovereignty again and violated Resolution 1701 yesterday through a dangerous military escalation. The enemy is seeking to amend the tasks of UNIFIL and the rules of engagement," said Diab in his government's first official response to Monday's shelling. "I call for caution in the coming days because I fear that things will get worse in light of severe tension at the border," he said. On Monday, Israel said it had repelled an attempt by Hizbullah to penetrate its territory. But Hizbullah "confirmed" in a statement that it did not take part in any clash and did not open fire. The Israeli army had said a group of three to five men armed with rifles crossed the UN-demarcated Blue Line in the disputed Mount Dov area, claimed by Lebanon, Syria and Israel.It said the "terrorists" had fled back to Lebanon after an exchange of gunfire and that Israeli forces had fired artillery into Lebanon "for defensive purposes". Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that Hizbullah and the Lebanese government "carry responsibility" for the infiltration attempt. But Hizbullah, which has a presence in the area where the incident occurred, denied any involvement. It said that reports of Israel thwarting an infiltration from Lebanon are "completely false." United Nations peacekeeping force UNIFIL said it had opened an investigation into the incident. Diab on Tuesday accused Israel of trying to "change the rules of engagement," that have existed between the two countries since the end of a month-long 2006 war -- the last direct conflict between the two states. He also said that Israel was pushing to alter the mandate of UNIFIL before it expires late next month. In early May, the US ambassador to the UN, Kelly Craft, called on the world body to "pursue serious change to empower UNIFIL or realign its staffing and resources," because the mission was being "prevented from fulfilling its mandate." Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah swiftly rejected the proposal which he said was an Israeli demand. The latest border incident follows a July 20 Israeli missile attack on Syrian government and allied positions south of Damascus that killed five people. Hizbullah, whose fighters back Damascus in the nine-year-old Syrian civil war, said one of its own was among the dead. Since 2011, Israel has launched hundreds of strikes in Syria, targeting government troops and allied Iranian and Hizbullah forces with the stated aim of ending Iran's military presence in Syria.

Mustaqbal Slams Govt. 'Absence' as to South Flare-Up
Naharnet/July 28/2020
Al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc on Tuesday blasted Hassan Diab's government over what it called its "suspicious absence" as to Monday's flare-up on the Lebanese-Israeli border. "The bloc is anxiously monitoring the repercussions of what happened on the southern border and the threats launched by the Israeli leadership against Lebanon," said Mustaqbal in a statement issued after its weekly meeting. "In the face of the military developments and Israeli shelling that targeted border towns and hit a citizen's house in the town of al-Hibbariyeh, the bloc stresses the need to abide by Resolution 1701 and coordinate with the U.N. forces in this regard," the bloc added. "The state and its military, political and diplomatic institutions must carry out their responsibilities, in light of the incomprehensible absence of the government and the relevant ministries which opted to dissociate themselves from challenges at this level of danger and importance, and to instead leave things fully to partisan sides," Mustaqbal went on to say. Stressing that "defending Lebanon is not a military or political specialty of a group of the Lebanese," the bloc said "government's suspicious absence as to the southern scene adds to achievements a new record reflecting the state of decay."

Hariri Says STL Verdicts to Fulfill Justice, Urges Patience, Calm
Naharnet/July 28/2020
Ex-PM Saad Hariri on Tuesday announced that he does not want to take a stance before the Special Tribunal for Lebanon issues its verdicts over the 2005 assassination of his father ex-PM Rafik Hariri. "National and ethical responsibility oliges me personally, as well as al-Mustaqbal Movement, ex-PM Rafik Hariri's popular base and all the families hit by the series of assassinations to await the verdict and base our stance on it," Hariri told a meeting of the al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc. "We in al-Mustaqbal Movement are looking forward to August 7 to be a day for truth and justice for the sake of Lebanon and a day to penalize the criminals," Hariri added Addressing the supporters and members of al-Mustaqbal Movement, the ex-PM urged them to "observe patience, calm and responsible action" and to "avoid discussing the verdicts and engaging in verbal clashes on social media, prior to and after the issuance of the detailed verdict by the STL."He added: "From now until August 7 I will always be among you and, God willing, we will have another stance."Rafik Hariri, who was Lebanon's prime minister until his resignation in 2004, was killed on February 14, 2005, when a suicide bomber detonated a pickup truck next to his armored convoy on the Beirut seafront. Another 21 people were killed and 226 injured in the assassination, with fingers initially pointing at Syria which had long been a power-broker in the country. The tribunal was created by a 2007 U.N. Security Council resolution at Lebanon's request, and four Hizbullah suspects went on trial in 2014 accused of core roles in the attack. Salim Ayyash, 50, is accused of leading the team that carried out the bombing, while Assad Sabra, 41, and Hussein Oneissi, 41, allegedly sent a fake video to the Al-Jazeera news channel claiming responsibility on behalf of a made-up group.
Hassan Habib Merhi, 52, is accused of general involvement in the plot.
The alleged mastermind, Hizbullah military commander Mustafa Badreddine, was indicted by the court but is now believed to have died while leading the group's forces fighting with the Syrian regime in May 2016. Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has refused to hand over the suspects and warned the tribunal "don't play with fire" while Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad says the court is a tool to "pressure Hizbullah." The assassination of Hariri transformed the face of Lebanon, triggering a wave of mass demonstrations that ended with the departure of Syrian forces from Lebanon after a 30-year presence. However the trial remains a sensitive subject in Lebanon, which is politically unstable and crippled with its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. Prosecutors said during the trial that Hariri was assassinated because he was perceived as a "severe threat" to Syrian control of the country and as a "proxy of the West". They said their case was "circumstantial" but "compelling", relying almost entirely on mobile phone records allegedly showing the suspects conducting intense surveillance of Hariri from just after his resignation until minutes before the blast. But the absence of the defendants has raised questions about the trial's credibility, while the gap of 13 years since the attack has caused doubts about its relevance in a region transformed by the war in Syria. Rafik Hariri's son Saad, who later went on to become prime minister like his father, called at the conclusion of the hearings in 2018 for "justice" but not revenge. The court has heard evidence from more than 300 witnesses and amassed 144,000 pages of evidence -- at an estimated cost of at least $600 million since it opened its doors in 2009. The tribunal opened a second case last year, charging prime suspect Ayyash with terrorism and murder over deadly attacks on politicians in 2004 and 2005.

Jumblat: Lebanese Earned an Unenviable Government
Naharnet/July 28/2020
Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat pointed Tuesday to the resemblance in the Lebanese and Iraqi crises, and criticized the government of PM Hassan Diab saying the Lebanese people are in an “unenviable” position for having this government. “News of Iraq about power blackouts, semi-depletion of water in the Tigris and Euphrates, evaporation of oil revenues spent on fake pensions belonging to the remnants of the popular crowd and the invasion of Iranian goods show some similarities with the Lebanese situation,” said Jumblat in a tweet.
He added that Iraqi PM Mustafa "Al-Kadhimi is facing an unenviable situation, and the Lebanese people are in an unenviable situation for having the "Dib" government,” indirectly referring to Diab. "Dib" is an Arabic term synonym for wolf.

Geagea Blames Hizbullah and Its Allies for Lebanon's Ongoing Crisis
Associated Press/Naharnet/July 28/2020
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Tuesday blamed Hizbullah and its local allies led by President Michel Aoun for the rapidly deteriorating economy and worsening relations with neighboring Arab countries, saying the only solution is for them to leave power.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Geagea said that Monday's military flare-up along the border with Israel was a clear indication the current Lebanese government, which Hizbullah supports, doesn't have sovereignty in the south, along Israel's border, where thousands of U.N. peacekeepers are based. The Israeli military said it thwarted an infiltration attempt Monday by Hizbullah militants after which it bombed border areas in south Lebanon. Hizbullah denied its members were involved in any activity along the border while the Lebanese government commented only a day later. "Yesterday's incident gives a clear idea about the state of sovereignty for the Lebanese state. Is that acceptable?" Geagea said in the telephone interview. "Which Arab and foreign countries want to deal with a government that considers itself nonexistent at a time when there is a security danger along its border?"
Hizbullah and its allies of the Free Patriotic Movement of President Aoun control majority seats in parliament and are the main backers of the current government that took office earlier this year. Prime Minister Hassan Diab replaced Western-backed Saad Hariri who resigned in October, following nationwide protests against widespread corruption and mismanagement by Lebanon's rulers.
Since then, the government has struggled to contain the escalating crisis, made worse by the pandemic. The government defaulted on paying back its debt for the first time in March, and the past few months have seen the Lebanese currency lose more than 80% of its value.
The government has requested a bailout from the International Monetary Fund but negotiations with the lender that started in mid-May have stalled because of divisions within the Lebanese leadership. Oil-rich gulf nations as well as international donors are refusing to give Lebanon a hand before major reforms are carried out within state institutions. Geagea, whose party has taken part in successive governments for the past decade and has 15 legislators in the 128-member parliament, said Lebanon received much assistance from Arab and Western countries in the past but all was wasted. Only a new, independent government would be able to win back the international community's confidence, he said. Geagea warned the alliance between Hizbullah and Aoun's party "has brought Lebanon to where it is and they will continue to do the same in the months to come."
"As long as they are in power we will continue in the crisis. It is a very simple and clear equation," Geagea said. "They are living on a different planet." The state's strategic decisions are in Hizbullah's hands, leading to deteriorating Lebanon's relations with Arab states, he also said. Geagea, whose party played a major role in Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war, said that once Hizbullah withdraws its fighters from Yemen, Syria and Iraq, and stops implementing Iran's policy, Arab states will most likely review relations with Lebanon.

Netanyahu Warns Hizbullah that Israel is 'Ready for Any Scenario'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 28/2020
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday warned Hizbullah that Israel is “ready for any scenario,” a day after the Israeli army claimed repelling an infiltration attempt and bombed border areas in south Lebanon. "Everything happening now is the result of the effort by Iran and its Lebanese proxies to entrench militarily in our region," Netanyahu said during a visit to the Israeli army's northern command headquarters.  "We will continue to take action to thwart Iran's military entrenchment in our region," he added. "We will do whatever is necessary to defend ourselves and I suggest that Hizbullah consider this simple fact. Israel is ready for any scenario," the Israeli PM warned. Hizbullah has denied involvement in Monday’s flare-up on the border while noting that its retaliation to the killing of one of its fighters in an Israeli airstrike in Syria "will certainly come.” It also warned that it will not remain silent over the Israeli shelling that targeted a civilian house in the Lebanese town of al-Hibbariyeh.

Israel Sends Reinforcements to Its Northern Frontier
Associated Press/Naharnet/July 28/2020
The Israeli army said Tuesday that Israel's northern frontier would be "reinforced with advanced fire capabilities, intelligence collection systems and special units."The announcement comes a day after a flare-up on the border with Lebanon and several days after the Israeli military announced it was beefing up the northern border with infantry troops amid tensions with Hizbullah. On Monday, the Israeli army claimed repelling an "infiltration" attempt and bombed border areas in south Lebanon. Hizbullah denied involvement in Monday's incidents while noting that its retaliation to the killing of one of its fighters in an Israeli airstrike in Syria "will certainly come." It also warned that it will not remain silent over the Israeli shelling that targeted a civilian house in the Lebanese town of al-Hibbariyeh during Monday's flare-up.
 

Iran, Hezbollah are unable to fully respond to increase in Israeli attacks: Experts
Mona Alami, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday 28 July 2020
Iran and its proxies in Syria and Lebanon do not have the maneuverability to respond to increasing Israeli attacks against them and are unlikely to carry out a large-scale retaliation, said experts, ahead of the border skirmish between Hezbollah and Israel on Monday. Israel has upped its attacks on Iranian targets in the region in recent months, striking Iranian and Hezbollah positions in Syria. But Iran and its proxies still seem to be following a strategy of non-escalation when it comes to Israel, said experts, pointing to Iran’s limited capabilities in Syria.
A month after Israel last struck Iranian targets in Syria, fresh airstrikes attributed to Tel-Aviv targeted on July 20 several Iranian interests near the capital Damascus. The alleged Israeli attacks came in two waves, destroying weapons and ammunition warehouses while killing five Iranian-backed non-Syrian and Syrian militiamen and wounding four others in south and southwest Damascus, according to the Syrian Human Rights Observatory. Seven members of the regime’s air-defense forces were injured, with two suffering serious injuries. “Hezbollah announced one martyr at least but more could follow as Hezbollah rarely releases names in one go,” said one source close to the party. Hezbollah’s fallen fighter Kamel Mohsen was known by his nom de guerre Jawad. The Syrian Ministry of Defense also announced that several soldiers were wounded as a result of the Israeli airstrikes on the southwestern suburbs of Damascus.
The geographic targets Israel chose for this strike were similar to previous attacks, namely falling in the vicinity of Sayeda Zeynab, Qeswa, Mazzeh, Daraya, Quneitra regions, on a regular basis, Syria expert Naswar Shaaban from the Omran Dirasat Center told Al Arabiya English.
“The first conclusion that can be drawn is that Iran does not have the capability to move its equipment and fighters around freely, which means that its margin of maneuver is severely limited by the Russians, within the capital Damascus, which leaves it vulnerable to Israeli attacks,” Shaaban said.
In recent years, Russia has established the rules of engagement for Iran and Israel in Syria, turning a blind eye to Israeli strikes on Iranian interests in Syria while preventing any retaliation by Iran or Hezbollah.
The Israeli strategy in Syria primarily seeks to target equipment and weapons, rather than military personnel and commanders, but the July attack appears to have been different from a strategical standpoint, Middle East Strategy Intelligence analyst Avi Melamed said. Seeing an opportunity to escalate strikes in Syria before the upcoming US elections, Israel has upped its war on Iran and its proxies in Syria, said Brahim Beyram, a Lebanese expert close to Hezbollah circles.
The November presidential elections could usher in a US president less amenable to the Israeli cause, and in the last few months dozens of attacks have targeted Iranian interests there, said Beyram.
The most recent attacks that took place in Syria, Beyram added, are part of the ongoing war taking place between Iran, backed by its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah, and Israel. “Israel wants to stop Iran and Hezbollah from entrenching themselves in Syria. Iran is working on creating a line of confrontation similar to the one it created in Lebanon. Hezbollah also has several bases in Aleppo, Homs, Damascus and close to the Lebanese border that it will not abandon,” Beyram said. Beyram and Melamed agree that Syria’s escalation cannot be dissociated from the covert war taking place in Iran in the form of mysterious explosions and fires, the most lethal of which being the recent blast at the Natanz enrichment site. It is difficult for Iran and Hezbollah to retaliate at this time given complex conditions at home and around the region, Melamed said.
Hezbollah’s mysterious retaliatory operation showed that both Iran and its Lebanese proxy are treading carefully in these uncertain times, and that they want to maintain any military operation’s scope and nature as limited as possible, so that they will not find themselves in a full blown conflict.

Lebanon PM Diab posts, deletes tweet decrying country's security situation
Abby Sewell, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday 28 July 2020
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Hassan Diab posted, and then deleted, a tweet Tuesday decrying the deteriorating security situation in the country, and suggesting that security forces and the judiciary had been remiss in imposing control on certain regions of the country. “The country is facing exceptional challenges, and there are arms escaping and attacks on security centers, and it’s as if things are not under control,” Diab wrote in the subsequently deleted tweet. “Where are the security services? Where is the judiciary? What is their role in imposing the prestige of the state? How is it that we can impose security on one area but cannot impose it on others? What is happening does not call for political accommodation; it requires a serious and determined security decision.”The post drew mockery from a number of social media users before it was removed. “Where are the security services? Where is the judiciary? Where is the prime minister?” wrote one Twitter user. Another poster mocked Diab’s confidence upon assuming office that he and a “technocratic” government that could pull the country back from a massive economic and political crisis. “Learned the hard way that you walked into a trap and now you and the cabinet are prisoners of the political body.”The tweet’s subsequent disappearance also drew criticism. Similar wording appeared in a post Tuesday afternoon on the state National News Agency site describing discussions at the meeting of the Supreme Defense Council. The wording had not been removed from that post as of late Tuesday afternoon. The comments came in the context of a series of rambling remarks on the various challenges and threats Lebanon is facing, including what he described as a “dangerous military escalation” by Israel on Lebanon’s southern border. Israel fired into Lebanese territory Monday – Israeli officials claimed it was in response to an attempted raid by Hezbollah, while Hezbollah denied having taken any action on the border and said that Israel had rather taken a “nervous action” due to being on a heightened state of alert. Hezbollah was widely expected to retaliate against Israel for the reported killing of one of its fighters in Syria.Diab called for “caution in the coming days, because I fear that things will slip for the worse in light of the severe tension on our borders with occupied Palestine.”
In his comments, Diab also decried “mafias” that he said have been controlling the markets for fuel and foodstuffs in Lebanon, asserting that they are creating false shortages of fuel and other essential items because they “hide it until they sell it on the black market at a higher price.”The Prime Minister also wrote on the recent visit to Lebanon by French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian that the visit “did not bring with it anything new and [Le Drian] lacked information regarding the path of government reforms and linked any assistance to Lebanon to achieving reforms.” He added that Le Drian’s insistence on “the necessity of passing (aid) through the International Monetary Fund confirms that the international decision is not to assist Lebanon until now.”

Lebanon’s PM Diab urges caution amid Israel’s ‘dangerous military escalation’
Reuters, Beirut/Tuesday 28 July 2020
Lebanon's Prime Minister Hassan Diab said on Tuesday that Israel had violated his country's sovereignty with a “dangerous military escalation” along the Israeli-Lebanese frontier on Monday and called for caution amid heightened border tensions.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israeli forces thwarted an attempt by Hezbollah to infiltrate across the Lebanese frontier on Monday, which the Iranian-backed Shia group denied. A Reuters witness in Lebanon counted dozens of Israeli shells hitting the disputed Shebaa Farms area.

Lebanese PM Urges Caution amid Heightened Border Tensions with Israel
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 28 July, 2020
Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab said on Tuesday Israel had violated his country’s sovereignty with a “dangerous military escalation” along the Israeli-Lebanese frontier on Monday, and called for caution after a rise in border tensions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli forces had thwarted an attempt by the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah party to infiltrate across the Lebanese frontier on Monday. The group denied this. A Reuters witness in Lebanon counted dozens of Israeli shells hitting the disputed Shebaa Farms area. “I call for caution in coming days because I fear the situation will deteriorate in light of heightened tensions on our border,” Diab said on Twitter. Israel was trying to “change the rules of engagement,” he said. Israeli forces have been on alert along the northern border in anticipation of Hezbollah retaliation for the killing of one of its members a week ago in an alleged Israeli attack on the edge of the Syrian capital Damascus. Occupied by Israel, the Shebaa Farms is claimed by Lebanon. The United Nations regards it as part of Syrian territory captured by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war. Netanyahu has said any attacks from Lebanese territory will draw a powerful response. Hezbollah, which last fought a war with Israel in 2006, denied its forces had tried to cross the frontier and said the incident was “one-sided”. After the killing of two Hezbollah members in Damascus last August, party Hassan Nasrallah vowed to respond if Israel killed any of its fighters in Syria. But Hezbollah’s deputy leader said on Sunday all-out war with Israel was unlikely. Hezbollah fighters deployed in Syria as part of Iranian-backed efforts to support President Bashar Assad. Israel sees the presence of Hezbollah and Iran in Syria as a strategic threat, and has mounted raids on Iranian-linked targets.

Netanyahu: Hezbollah should know that IDF is prepared for all scenarios
Jerusalem Post/July 28/2020
The prime minister's remarks came the day after the IDF stopped a Hezbollah attack on Israel’s northern border. Hezbollah should realize that Israel will do what it takes to defend itself, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on a visit to the IDF Northern Command in Safed on Tuesday. “I don’t suggest that anyone try the IDF or Israel. We are determined to defend ourselves,” Netanyahu said following a meeting with IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen Aviv Kochavi, OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Amir Baram, National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat and others. Netanyahu’s remarks came the day after the IDF stopped a Hezbollah attack on Israel’s northern borders. He called the clash “important,” in that it prevented a Hezbollah incursion into Israel. “All that is happening at this moment is a result of an attempt by Iran and its outgrowths in Lebanon,” he stated. Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah is “serving the Iranian interest at Lebanon’s expense,” Netanyahu said. The prime minister said Israel “will continue to thwart Iranian attempts to establish itself in our area.”“The IDF is prepared for any scenario… We will do all that is necessary to defend ourselves. I suggest Hezbollah take this simple fact into consideration,” he added.

Hezbollah opens door to new 'retaliation' by denying clashes with IDF
Jerusalem Post/July 28/2020
Pro-Hezbollah media or media sympathetic to Iran in the region is the one that communicates the narrative. Social media accounts also explain what may happen. Hezbollah has shifted its narrative to deny that any clash took place with Israel on Monday. This may bode ill for reducing tensions because it means Hezbollah keeps the “retaliation” card in its hand, ready to play it when it wants, holding this over Israel in a manner that Hezbollah’s cheerleaders, members and leadership seem to endorse. Hezbollah’s narrative is that Jerusalem is afraid of Hezbollah and that it has somehow outplayed Israel by getting Israel to wait and see what happens. This confusing high-stakes game is played out in media but also has potential to influence what happens on the ground. Pro-Hezbollah media or media sympathetic to Iran in the region is the one that communicates the narrative. Social media accounts also explain what may happen.
For instance, it appears now that not only does Hezbollah deny anything happened yesterday - despite smoke and artillery fire on Monday that indicated the opposite - but Hezbollah also wants to complain about violations of Lebanese sovereignty. Why? Because they claim a shell hit a house during the non-existence clashes.
Al-Mayadeen media reports that Hezbollah has said “there was no clash” and now there will be “two retaliations” instead of one. Why? Because Hezbollah insinuates now that Israel is at fault for killing their member Ali Mohsen in Syria on July and that Israel is responsible for the clash on July 27 and the “violation” of sovereignty. This kind of narrative reminds one of a parent warning a child not to do something and then saying that the punishment will be twice as bad. But the problem for Hezbollah is how it intends to live up to these statements and what it’s logic is. It appears that the terror group wants to open an account with Israel, in a sense, and thus be able to build up “retaliation credits” such that it can choose the time and place to exact what it claims it a rightful revenge for two incidents. If it reduces tensions it can be seen as magnanimous and responsible. If it does something it then says it has a “right.” It’s a win-win, Hezbollah thinks. The only problem it has is that it is in a corner with economic failure in Lebanon and the group wants to claim to behave responsibly, not drag Lebanon into a conflict. “Fearful, anxious and tense,” is how Hezbollah calls Israel today. Hezbollah appears to use some information warfare in how it has unrolled this narrative.
First it reports that “Israeli sources” said there had been Hezbollah anti-tank fire of a Kornet missile, according to al-Mayadeen. Having built this up, Hezbollah then claims that Israel downplayed the incident and that Israel is being misleading. Hezbollah then claims no incident took place, but blames Israel for errant fire that supposedly damaged a house. And then Hezbollah says that it “the shelling that took place in the village of Al-Habariya harmed a civilian home and will not be tolerated.” Hezbollah says this as if it is the official security force of Lebanon, having taken on the mantle of making government statements apparently. “Israel has invented fake victories,” the group says. Al-Manar and other media linked to Hezbollah have reported the same unfolding narrative. Hezbollah has been careful to ascribe many statements to Israeli media. It then notes that Al-Manar media members near the border only saw “Israeli artillery shelling.” Elijah Magnier writes on social media that last year during Hezbollah-Israel tensions Israel had used mannequins during a Hezbollah attack to seemingly trick the group. “Now he [Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] staged a fake attack….where are your camera’s footage.” This is the rising chorus in Lebanon about the incident. “Hezbollah is imposing its own rules of deterrence and engagement,” Magnier notes.  While Hezbollah appears to have managed the press reports well on this round, moving the narrative to make it seem Israel is inept and casting doubt on what happened, the group must contend with questions from yesterday. Why did the same Lebanese media highlight Ali Mohsen’s mother praising the “retaliation” that never happened?But media in Lebanon and officials are now widely convinced the incident was “concocted.”
Why did Hezbollah say it would release a statement on the “operation in Sheba Farms,” that it then said didn’t take place? Why did Al-Mayadeen and others push a story about a “Kornet missile hit a jeep,” that allegedly didn’t happen?
These reports began in Lebanon in the afternoon in Arabic media. The reports of the mother passing out candy to praise the attack can be found still on LBCI media and elsewhere from July 27.
Nevertheless, that leaves sufficient lack of clarity to know what happened. What is known is that Hezbollah rapidly changed and created a narrative trying to win a public relations war with Israel and humiliate Netanyahu with an eye towards making the IDF appear unsure of itself.

Was Mount Dov incident another Hollywood show for Hezbollah?

Jerusalem Post/July 28/2020
In this day and age, everything is filmed. So where is the footage of the infiltrators crossing into Israel? Where is the drone footage of the area at the time of the incident? Monday’s incident between the IDF and Hezbollah is still fresh in everyone’s mind.
The IDF claims to have successfully thwarted an attack by an armed cell belonging to the Lebanese terrorist group that had infiltrated into Israeli territory. But the questions are piling up. The IDF said the Hezbollah cell had been identified by military reconnaissance as it crossed the Blue Line before being engaged by troops and fleeing. The military said it was unsure if any of the infiltrators were wounded or killed, but the soldiers were unharmed. Hezbollah denied anything had happened. In this day and age, everything is filmed. So where is the footage of the infiltrators crossing into Israel? Where is the drone footage of the area at the time of the incident? Hezbollah, as well, must have some footage if something was planned. Whether body cameras on militants or a camera crew filming attacks from afar, Hezbollah always has a camera running.
In September, the group released footage of an anti-tank guided-missile (ATGM) attack just a few hours after it took place. Since the alleged Israeli strike last week that killed a Hezbollah fighter, supporters of the group have shared photos of an ATGM launcher alongside a camera.
They go hand in hand.
Neither side has released anything, and the Israeli public is now questioning whether anything actually happened. Responding to skepticism that already was emerging Monday evening, Amos Yadlin, former head of IDF Military Intelligence, said he believed the IDF more than Hezbollah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who he said is a liar and manipulator. But the IDF does not get off scot-free. It has manipulated events in the past, and journalists and the public are justified to question what happened on Monday. It started with a fateful day in September.
The IDF played a never-before card following an attack by Hezbollah against IDF targets near the community of Avivim along the Lebanese border. The Lebanese terrorist group fired three anti-tank guided missiles, one of them almost hitting a military ambulance that had gone against orders and drove down a highway outside the community. It was a delicate ruse that consisted of a media blackout about wounded or dead soldiers and their evacuation by a military helicopter to Rambam Health Care Campus in Haifa. The IDF also fired some 100 artillery shells at targets in southern Lebanon. Pro-Hezbollah media outlets were quick to celebrate that they had killed soldiers. Two hours later, when the guns went silent and the smoke cleared, the IDF admitted: “Loud and clear, there are no injuries or fatalities to our troops.”
Both sides claimed victory. For the IDF, no soldiers were hurt. For Nasrallah, he got his revenge for the deaths of fighters killed in an alleged Israeli airstrike in Syria that targeted an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Hezbollah cell planning to launch attack drones into Israel.
But, Nasrallah warned, “Remember this day. This is the start of a new phase.”The next day, in yet another speech, he called the IDF a “Hollywood army” and challenged Israel’s military to perform more shows.
“You are a Hollywood army, and we learned a lesson from the show you performed,” Nasrallah said in a speech to mark the Muslim holiday of Ashura. “In future responses, instead of hitting one vehicle, we will hit more, and instead of hitting one target, we will hit more, and let’s see how many Hollywood shows you can perform.” So are there tapes of the incident on Mount Dov on Monday? Or was it another Hollywood show?

IDF sends reinforcements north over concern of more Hezbollah attacks
Jerusalem Post/July 28/2020
Netanyahu warns Hezbollah that IDF is prepared for all scenarios; Lebanon PM: Israel assaulted sovereignty in dangerous military escalation; UNIFIL launches investigation
Israel’s military has further reinforced the Northern Command in anticipation of additional attacks by Hezbollah after a failed infiltration attempt by a cell belonging to the Lebanese terror group on Monday.
The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said that special weapons systems, intelligence gathering units, and specialized units have been deployed to the north. According to sources, the reinforcements include precision fire systems, along with combat intelligence-gathering units, and specialized infantry units.
Speaking after a visit to the IDF’s Northern Command Headquarters in Safed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned the Lebanese terror group on Tuesday that it should realize Israel will do what it takes to defend itself.
“The IDF is prepared for any scenario,” Netanyahu said following a meeting with IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Amir Baram, National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat and others on a visit to the IDF Northern Command in Safed.
Calling the clash “important,” in that it prevented a Hezbollah incursion into Israel, Netanyahu said that “we will do all that is necessary to defend ourselves. I suggest Hezbollah take this simple fact into consideration.”
Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah is “serving the Iranian interest at Lebanon’s expense,” Netanyahu said, adding that “all that is happening at this moment is a result of an attempt by Iran and its outgrowths in Lebanon. Israel “will continue to thwart Iranian attempts to establish itself in our area.” Defense Minister Benny Gantz, while on a tour of the F-35 Adir Squadron at Nevatim Air Base in southern Israel along with Israel Air Force Command Maj.-Gen. Amikam Norkin warned that “Israel knows how to use its capabilities, everywhere.”
“We have the capacity to act, at any range, and with unprecedented operational readiness. I suggest that the countries of the region -- near and far, Iran, Lebanon, Syria and anyone involved in terrorism -- remember that the State of Israel has infinite capacity and we know how to use it."
Meanwhile, Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab warned that Israel had "assaulted Lebanon's sovereignty again" in a "dangerous military escalation.”
Israel is "seeking to amend the tasks of UNIFIL and the rules of engagement with us," added Diab. "I call for caution in the coming days because I fear that things will slip for the worse in light of the severe tension on our borders."
Diab made the comments Tuesday prior to a Higher Defense Council meeting in Beirut’s Baabda Presidential Palace for talks on the events, Lebanon’s Naharnet News reported.
Chaired by Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun, the meeting was also attended by Defense Zeina Akar, Foreign Ministry Nasif Hitti, Lebanese Army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun, General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim, Internal Security Forces chief Maj. Gen. Imad Othman and several other military and security officials. Several other Lebanese ministers also joined the talks.
Lebanese media on Tuesday reported heavy Israeli aerial activity across the country, and footage of drones and helicopters were shared to social media platforms.
While the military removed restrictions on civilians shortly after the incident ended, IDF vehicles are still prohibited from traveling on certain highways and roads along the border that are considered vulnerable to attack from the terror group.
United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) Spokesperson Andrea Tenenti told The Jerusalem Post that force commanders have been in touch with both sides to “decrease tension and prevent a misunderstanding” and that an investigation had been launched into the incident.
“UNIFIL has launched an investigation to determine the facts and circumstances of the incident. Our team is already on the ground,” he said. “The investigation is looking at all the different aspects and we will be on both sides to look at all details and speak to people who were there.”When asked whether or not there was a chance that nothing had indeed happened, Tenenti said that “it’s too early to reach any conclusions.”
On Monday afternoon a Hezbollah cell, which numbered between three to five operatives, crossed the border – also known as the Blue Line – several meters into sovereign Israeli territory and were identified by the IDF, which opened fire on them causing them to flee back into Lebanon without firing at IDF troops. There were no IDF injuries or casualties and Hezbollah later denied such a clash occurred and warned that its response to the death of its member in Syria “is definitely coming” and that the damage of one of the houses in the village of Al-Habariyah “will not pass quietly.”
“There are tense and complicated days are before us,” IDF Spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Hidai Zilberman told reporters on Monday afternoon following the incident.
In a joint press conference, Netanyahu and Gantz warned Hezbollah against further attacks and stated that Lebanon and Syria would be held responsible for any attacks emanating from their territory.
“Hezbollah has to know it’s playing with fire,” Netanyahu warned. “Any attack will be met with great force.”
Sitting next to him, Gantz warned that Lebanon and Syria would be the responsibility for any terror attack that emanates from their territory.
“Anyone who dares to test the power of the IDF will endanger himself and the country from which he operates. Any action against the State of Israel will lead to a powerful, sharp, and painful response," he said.
Nevertheless, following the incident, Israel conveyed messages to Lebanon through third parties that it did not want any further escalation with Hezbollah.
Prior to the incident Iran’s Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammed Jalal Firouznia met with Lebanon’s Grand Mufti and “confirmed Iran’s support for Lebanon,” and warned against an Israeli strike on Lebanon.
“The Israeli enemy has not forgotten its defeat in the July war (2006). If it does such madness, there is no doubt that it will receive a harder blow in return. The axis of the resistance is stronger than ever, and we are convinced that more victories await this axis” he was quote by Lebanon’s MTV News as saying.
 

Did Hezbollah paint itself into a corner over 'retaliation policy?'
Jerusalem Post/July 28/2020
A week ago, when Hezbollah indicated one of its fighters, Ali Mohsen, was killed in Syria, the group immediately had its social media fans calling for attacks on Israel.
Hezbollah has been telegraphing its policy of retaliation for months, trying to build up some kind of deterrence that it thinks will help it save face in case of potential casualties in Syria. The idea has come about over the last years, in which Hezbollah has often followed through on claims it will retaliate against Israel if its members are targeted or killed. In this it tried to create a balance of terror. On July 27, it seems to have put that process into action in a limited way at first.
Many are scratching their heads after a small Hezbollah squad apparently approached Israel through the Mount Dov area. This is a disputed area that has long been targeted by Hezbollah. The group claims it is “resisting” Israel and trying to “liberate” the area, which it claims for Lebanon from the “Zionists.” But Hezbollah has hinted over the years that the battle with Israel will spread beyond Mount Dov to the whole border, as well as the Syrian side of the Golan Heights.
A week ago, when Hezbollah indicated one of its fighters, Ali Mohsen, was killed in Syria, the group immediately had its social-media fans calling for attacks on Israel. It took a week for Hezbollah to do something. Pro-Hezbollah media linked to Iran and the Syrian regime all sought to praise and highlight the group’s July 27 raid into Mount Dov. Al Mayadeen claimed the group targeted a tank. Iran’s Fars News also said there were “unconfirmed reports” of an attack on a “Zionist tank.”
All these programs claimed they relied on Israeli media for their information. Clearly, the Hezbollah information machine was in the bunker with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. These channels also pointed out an Israeli drone had crashed a day ago, as if to link it to Hezbollah’s “success.”
Overall, the perception in the afternoon was that Israel had thwarted a daylight attack. It bore some commonalities with the September 1, 2019, retaliation Hezbollah carried out after it claimed an Israeli drone crashed in Beirut and after two of its members were killed in Syria. Both attacks took place in daylight.
In the 2019 incident, anti-tank missiles were fired. Israel evacuated mannequins placed in the vehicle that was hit. This ability to avoid casualties and have Hezbollah “retaliate” was unique last year. This year, it appears Hezbollah sent a small team to actually infiltrate into an area where Israeli forces are located.
Russia’s Sputnik in Arabic had another interpretation. Relying on a “source,” it claimed Hezbollah tried to infiltrate the border village of Ghajar, and it was exposed in the process of targeting an “Israeli military convoy.” In Lebanon, initial reports implied there were no Hezbollah casualties. Israel said in the afternoon there were no casualties. Some wondered if the incident was conjured up for Hezbollah to pretend it had done something, while doing nothing.
But the pro-Hezbollah narrative will be that they succeeded in crossing the Blue Line, just as they claim to have cut three holes in the border fence earlier this year as a “success.” They showed they could attack at a time and place of their choosing and keep Israel waiting. Nasrallah thus did what he said he would do. He “retaliated.”Hezbollah’s narrative is that Israel is worried about Hezbollah and that it fears Hezbollah’s retaliation. This narrative works on several levels. It enables Hezbollah to pretend it is doing something and allows it to save face by carrying out smaller retaliations.
Over the last number of days, reports indicated that both Israel and Hezbollah did not want an escalation. Hezbollah seemed to play down talk of wider conflict. But Hezbollah is facing other problems, such as an economic crisis. This means it might need a distraction. However, it also knows that any incident could spiral out of control. The question for Hezbollah is whether it painted itself into a corner with its balance of deterrence. There are now several incidents to look toward as a kind of model for Israel-Hezbollah relations. The problem is that complacency and expectation of de-escalation could lead to false beliefs that there will not one day be a false move, or miscalculation, by one side that leads to wider conflict.
Hezbollah continues to import precision-guided munitions from Iran and build up its arsenal, and it continues to slowly digest Lebanon’s government and economy. That is Iran’s real goal – to present an increased military threat along the Lebanese and Syrian border. It is not that Iran wants de-escalation; it wants a long-term threat close to Israel.In this respect, Hezbollah initially showed it could decide when and where to strike in retaliation. It also showed that it somehow has a “right” to have its fighters in Syria and that if they are wounded, then it can “retaliate” as it chooses.
This presents a balance in which it has effectively extended its “right” to be present in Syria, much as it slowly became a norm to have Hezbollah run southern Lebanon. In this sense, what was once a question mark becomes reality.
On the larger playing field of the Middle East, therefore, Hezbollah acquiring this “right” to retaliate may be the larger story, even if its actual act appears to be a failure or an Israeli success in thwarting Nasrallah’s moves. That also leads to Nasrallah adopting a view that he can continue to hold Israel in waiting as to when he might next need to carry out an operation.

Hezbollah Has Tried to Infiltrate Combatants into Territory Controlled by Israel
Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/July 28/2020
On July 27, Hezbollah apparently attempted to retaliate for the death of a party member, ‘Ali Kamel Muhsin, killed in Syria in an Israeli air attack. According to Israeli news reports, the party sought to infiltrate between three and five combatants into the Israeli-controlled part of the Sheb‘a farms in southeastern Lebanon, when Israeli soldiers fired on them. Hezbollah denied any infiltration attempt, releasing a statement saying “there has been no clash or shooting on [Hezbollah’s] part in the events of the day ... Rather, it was only one party [that did so], the fearful, anxious and tense enemy.”
Why is It Important?
As part of its deterrence posture with regard to Israel, Hezbollah has always sought to show that it would respond to any Israeli attack against the party or against Lebanon. This was all the more important in that Hezbollah continues to claim that it is a national resistance. This argument is being increasingly called into question today as senior Lebanese political and religious figures are speaking out against the way the party has isolated Lebanon from its Arab environment by manhandling the country into Iran’s orbit.
More intriguing is the fact that Hezbollah appears to have expanded its interpretation of what constitutes a justifiable act of retaliation against Israel, extending this to the killing of party militants inside Syria. Yet this was not always very clear. When Samir al-Quntar, a Lebanese Druze member of Hezbollah who had previously spent almost three decades in an Israeli prison, was killed in Syria in December 2015, the party blamed Israel and vowed to retaliate. Yet until now nothing suggests that it ever responded to his killing.
By trying to inject an element of certainty into its reaction to Muhsin’s killing, Hezbollah appeared to be sending an implicit message that it would begin considering the Israeli-Hezbollah front in Syria as a continuation of the one in Lebanon. This would represent a broadening of its deterrence posture at a time when Lebanon is facing a major economic crisis. In that way the party aims to show that it is in now way affected by the dire situation at home.
What Are the Implications for the Future?
If Hezbollah’s objective was indeed to underline that it will now respond to Israeli attacks against its members in Syria, it is not surprising that it announced that nothing had happened on July 23. Initiating a significant widening of the rules of engagement with a military fiasco was not possible. This suggests that Hezbollah is planning more effective retaliation in the near future.
By clarifying that Hezbollah’s fighters in Syria are off-limits to Israeli attack, the party may also be signaling that something is shifting in Iran’s reaction to years of Israeli bombing of Iranian forces and their allies in Syria, which until now have provoked limited reprisals. This is part of the wider Iranian effort to establish a military presence in southern Syria, something Israel has sought to thwart. At a time when Iran is feeling pressure from Israel and the United States, but also to an extent from Russia, it is important for Tehran to prove that it can advance its agenda in Syria, despite everything.
There is also a domestic component in Hezbollah’s action. In recent months, the party has sought repeatedly to affirm that the catastrophic Lebanese economic situation has not affected its behavior with regard to Israel and the region. This defiant attitude was to be expected, even if Hezbollah’s ability to engage in a major conflict with Israel when its electorate is impoverished and vulnerable is highly constrained. But the party doesn’t want anyone, least of all the Israelis, to act on such a belief. It realizes that if the Netanyahu government were to sense any Hezbollah weakness, it could strike against its missiles and perhaps more.
The Muhsin episode may not be over. By denying it had engaged in an infiltration attempt, Hezbollah virtually confirmed that something is coming. The fact that it issued an embarrassing denial that anything had taken place on July 27 may indicate that it wanted an operational success that would have gotten across how its reaction represented updated rules of the game with Israel. That Hezbollah sees a need to encompass its forces deployed in Syria in what constitutes justifiable retaliation against Israel may imply that Iran and the party somehow fear that they are losing ground there against their archenemy.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 28-29/2020

Israeli Strikes Kill 60 Pro-Iranian Fighters In Syria in 3 Months
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 28 July, 2020
Israeli airstrikes in Syria have killed at least 60 pro-Iranian paramilitary fighters while sources confirmed that a Hezbollah “cooperator” was killed in the countryside of Deraa on Monday, reports said.The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that from early May till July 21, it documented a series of attacks against Iranian positions in Syria that left at least 60 casualties from non-Syrian paramilitary fighters including Fatimiyoun, Hezbollah, the Revolutionary Guards and others. It said the Israel forces carried out those airstrikes against a number of Iranian targets in the south, central and east of Syria. Israel has acknowledged conducting many raids inside Syria since the start of the civil war in 2011 where it sees Iran’s presence as a strategic threat. The London-based watchdog said that since early May, airstrikes targeted many pro-Iranian positions in Syria, including in Quneitra, Deraa, Homs, Aleppo, Deir Ezzor, Hama, Damascus and its countryside. “Those airstrikes killed around 60 Iranian paramilitaries and destroyed a large number of arms and ammunition depots,” it said. The Observatory has also documented the death of a “collaborator” for Lebanese Hezbollah, after being shot dead inside his home in the town of Al-Harak in the eastern countryside on Monday. SOHR sources said earlier that unidentified gunmen stormed the house of a former faction opposition commander in Al-Sanamin town in Daraa countryside, opening fire on those in the house, killing five fighters and former commanders, and injuring others. It also documented the death of three regime forces and the injury of five others, as an improvised explosive device (IED) exploded in a vehicle for the 9th Division, north of the city of Nawa in Daraa countryside. This brings the number of attacks and assassination attempts in various forms and methods by detonating IEDs, mines, booby-trapped vehicles and shootings from past June to date, to more than 590 attacks, according to the Observatory.

Israeli Security Service Tightens Protection Around Netanyahu
Tel Aviv - Nazir Magali/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 28 July, 2020
The Shin Bet security service is increasing its protection for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his family in response to the growing protests outside his official residence and ongoing tensions between demonstrators, police and Netanyahu supporters. Shin Bet sources revealed that a number of demonstrators are threatening to kill the prime minister. Other sources indicated that the Shin Bet is in compliance with the orders of Public Security Minister Amir Ohana who is worried of “left-wing violence that will end in bloodshed.”They added that the multitude of demonstrations near the residence on Balfour Street and the Netanyahus’ family home in Caesarea have forced making certain changes to security measures. They also pointed out that the thousands of protesters are not screened or questioned, although there are security guards and barriers separating them from Netanyahu’s family. Shin Bet officials refused to disclose whether there is any intelligence warning of an intent or attempt to target Netanyahu or his family, yet they are concerned about a security incident. The Shin Bet move sparked criticism among the demonstrators, and one of the participating movements mocked their measures, saying protesters need the protection after several incidents from far-right supporters. On Saturday night, one person sprayed pepper spray at anti-Netanyahu demonstrators, while others beat protesters, one of whom was stabbed in the neck. On Monday, Haaretz newspaper published an editorial warning against the repeated assassination of demonstrators by the far-right, as was the case in 1983 when Emil Grunzweig, a leftist demonstrator was killed by a right-wing activist. The article noted that demonstrators nationwide have said they were attacked on Saturday night, including with pepper spray, hurled bottles and fists, sometimes by several assailants. The police arrested three suspects that night, and one said he did it because he was angry that they were “harming state symbols. The newspaper accused the prime minister and those around him of worrying about false threats. It warned that such acts should not be viewed in isolation from the ongoing, systematic incitement by Netanyahu, noting that Ohana would do better to order the police to combat the genuine threats similar to Grunzweig’s case. Meanwhile, Kan Bet channel revealed a recording where Ohana blamed the police and intelligence services for authorizing the "annoying" demonstrations in front of the Prime Minister's residence, wondering about the reason for the "leniency" with the protesters. Ohana urged the police to toughen the measures used against protesters saying: “We cannot continue with this turmoil, we cannot continue with this anarchism.” Jerusalem District Police Commander Major General Doron Yadid was heard in the audio recording as saying that some 160 individuals were fined for violating the coronavirus measures. The recording drew sharp criticism from the left, as MP Moshe Yaaloun condemned the Minister’s pressure on the police to violate law by banning protests, warning that this means “the state has deviated from its proper course.”Head of opposition Yair Lapid called for the removal of the government, however, Likud MP Avi Dichter defended Ohana, saying the police must deter and stop demonstrations, before they get out of control and cause casualties.

Iran uses new satellite to track war games in Strait of Hormuz
Jerusalem Post/July 28/2020
Based in the Hormozgan Province, the various air and naval units converged to show off Iran’s usual menagerie of weapons.
Iran launched new military exercises this week with the participation of the Navy, Air Force and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It began Tuesday along the Persian Gulf and Straits of Hormuz. Based in the Hormozgan Province, the various air and naval units converged to show off Iran’s usual menagerie of weapons. Iran has also towed a giant model of a US aircraft carrier out to sea, likely as target practice. Iran’s Tasnim News says that IRGC fast boats, drones and air force missiles, radar and helicopters will all join in battle against “hypothetical enemy vessels.” There will be coastal missiles used and fired out to sea. The Noor satellite, which Iran launched earlier this year will send back images, the Iranian media says. These drills are named after the ‘Great Prophet’ and subsequent annual drills included ‘Great Prophet 5’ in 2010 and ‘Great Prophet 11’ in 2017. During Great Prophet 9 in 2015 the fake US aircraft carrier was blown up by Iran. In Farsi the term for the war games is Payambar-e-Azam. Iranian officials said this was a long planned series of exercises. All levels of training will be tested along with communications, staff officers and trying to make Iran more flexible and fast in its military abilities. Ballistic and long range cruise missiles may be used. Iran has used cruise missiles and drones to attack Saudi Arabia last September and used ballistic missiles to target US forces in January. US-Iran tensions are very high at the moment as are Israel-Hezbollah tensions.

US Navy calls Iran military exercise in Gulf ‘irresponsible and reckless’
AFP/Tuesday 28 July 2020
The United States Navy on Tuesday criticized Iran as “irresponsible and reckless” for conducting an exercise involving firing a missile at a replica aircraft carrier in Gulf waters. Watch: Iran carries out war games, target practice at mock US carrier in Arabian Gulf. “We are aware of the Iranian exercise involving attacking a mock-up of a vessel similar to a motionless aircraft carrier,” US Fifth Fleet spokeswoman Rebecca Rebarich told AFP. “While we are always watchful of this type of irresponsible and reckless behavior by Iran in the vicinity of busy international waterways, this exercise has not disrupted coalition operations in the area nor had any impacts to the free flow of commerce in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters.”

Explosion in Iran's Kermanshah province, no casualties reported - Mizan

Reuters/July 28/2020
There have been several explosions and fires around Iranian military, nuclear and industrial facilities since late June. An explosion has set a fuel tank on fire in Iran's western province of Kermanshah on Tuesday, Iran's Mizan news agency reported, in the latest in a series of fires and explosions, some of which have hit sensitive sites. "An explosion in a fuel tank occurred in Dolat Abad industrial area parking area," Mizan said, but there were no reports of casualties. Iran's Student News Agency ISNA said six fuel tanks were exploded that caused a major fire in the area. A video of the incident published by Mizan showed plumes of dense black smoke billowing into the air. "Some 100 firefighters are trying to contain the fire in the area. There were no casualties but some people were injured," the deputy head of Kermanshah's fire department, Keyvan Maleki, told ISNA, adding that authorities were investigating the cause of the explosion. There have been several explosions and fires around Iranian military, nuclear and industrial facilities since late June.

Fuel tankers explode in western Iran causing major fire: ISNA
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday 28 July 2020
Several fuel tankers exploded in an industrial park in western Iran on Tuesday causing a major fire in the area, the semi-official ISNA news agency reported. The incident occurred at a parking lot in the Dolatabad industrial town in Kermanshah province. At least 30 vehicles were damaged in the blast, the official IRIB news agency reported. “Six fuel tankers caught fire and exploded causing a large fire in a parking lot in Dolatabad,” ISNA quoted the deputy head of the Kermanshah fire department Keyvan Maleki as saying. “Fortunately, we did not have any casualties in this incident and only a few people were injured,” said Maleki. He added that the cause of the incident is under investigation. Since late June, a string of fires and blasts have been reported at military, industrial and nuclear sites in Iran as well as at oil refineries, power plants, factories and businesses.

British-Australian scholar moved to Iran’s Qarchak prison amid COVID-19 outbreak
Joanne Serrieh, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday 28 July 2020
Jailed British-Australian academic Kylie Moore-Gilbert has been moved to Iran’s Qarchak prison, known as the most dangerous and worst prison in the country, amid a reported coronavirus outbreak in the prison, according to the Guardian on Tuesday. Concerns have been raised after reports that coronavirus has been detected in the prison, with sources telling the British newspaper “social distancing is impossible, and access to soap is often limited.” Independent sources inside Iran confirmed to the Guardian that the academic had been moved to the prison controlled by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“Isolated and overcrowded, Qarchak has a reputation as one of the most hostile prisons in the country,” reported the publication. “I can’t eat anything. I feel so very hopeless,” Moore-Gilbert is quoted by the Guardian as telling Reza Khandan, husband of jailed human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh, in a phone call. “I am so depressed. I don’t have any phone card to call. I’ve asked the prison officers, but they didn’t give me a phone card. I [was last able to] call my parents about one month ago.”In June, the United States Department of State reportedly listed the prison as an entity responsible for “extrajudicial killings, torture, or other gross violations of internationally recognized human rights.”The Middle East scholar is serving a 10-year sentence on espionage charges in the Islamic Republic and was being held in Evin prison, another notorious institution. Moore-Gilbert’s arrest was confirmed in September 2019 but her family said she was detained months before that date, according to AFP.

Third Iraq Protester Dies of Tear Gas Canister Wound this Week
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 28 July, 2020
An Iraqi protester died Tuesday after being shot with a tear gas canister in overnight skirmishes with police in the capital, medical and security sources told AFP. The clashes came just hours after Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi instructed security forces not to "fire a single bullet" at demonstrators, following the deaths of two other protesters Monday morning in Baghdad. But by Monday evening, the confrontations in the capital's main anti-government protest camp of Tahrir Square had started anew. "He was shot in the head and chest, and more than a dozen others were wounded. He was in intensive care and died this morning," a medic said. The protests began Sunday night in Baghdad and several southern cities, expressing fury at poor public services as temperatures topping 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) have swelled demand for air-conditioning and overwhelmed dilapidated power grids. The protests quickly turned violent in the capital, with two men dying on Monday morning after being hit directly by tear gas canisters that are otherwise fired in arced and less powerful trajectories to disperse protesters. The deaths threaten to reignite an unprecedented protest movement against government graft and incompetence that erupted across Baghdad and southern Iraq in October.Violence at those grassroots rallies had left around 550 people dead and more than 30,000 wounded, and prompted the resignation of then-premier Adel Abdel Mahdi. Abdel Mahdi was widely criticized for failing to hold security forces to account and Kadhimi, who came to power in May, vowed to be different. He pledged to carry out an investigation into protester deaths and promised dialogue with the movement, which had largely died down following a surge in wider geopolitical tensions and amid the coronavirus pandemic. Following the first two deaths, Kadhimi gave a rare televised address to say he had ordered a probe into the violence and expected the results within 72 hours. "Security forces are not permitted to fire a single bullet against our brothers, the demonstrators," Kadhimi warned.

Russian Navy Holds Parade in Tartous
Moscow- Raed Jaber/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 28 July, 2020
Marking the Russian Navy Day which took place on Sunday July 26, Moscow has sent out messages to several parties by holding a military parade showing off the might of the different ships and equipment that have been permanently docked off Syria’s shores. This is not the first time that Russia organizes a military parade for Russian forces in Syria. Since 2016, and every May, Russian forces at the Khmeimim Air Base hold a military parade. Moscow has also conducted dozens of naval military exercises and maneuvers off the shores of Tartous. The most recent military drill was a few weeks ago when the Admiral Makarov frigate carried out its mission as part of the permanent force is the Mediterranean and in accordance to training plans to offer air defense against enemy aircraft in addition to repelling a sabotage attack by an imaginary enemy under the surface of the water.
The parade included modern Russian Navy warships - Project 636.3 diesel-electric submarine Novorossiysk, frigate Admiral Makarov, sea minesweeper Vice-Admiral Zakharyin and tug SB-36. Anti-sabotage boats of Raptor and Grachonok type took part in individual elements of the military sports festival.
The ceremonial events in the territorial waters of Syria began with a bypass of the parade formation of the Russian Navy ships, decorated with colored flags and lined up in a wake line on the outer roadstead of the port of Tartous, receiving the parade - the commander of the grouping of troops (forces) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the Syrian Arab Republic, Lieutenant General Alexander Chaiko and the parade commander - Captain 1st Rank Sergei Tronev. After inspection of ships and the arrival of the commander of the Russian Armed Forces grouping in the SAR and the commander of the parade on the frigate Admiral Makarov, a solemn ceremony of rewarding sailors for distinction in military service and exemplary performance of military duty took place on board the ship. The air part of the military sports festival was opened by the flight of transport and attack helicopters of naval and army aviation - Ka-27PS, Mi-8AMTSh and Mi-35. In addition to helicopters, front-line bombers Su-24, multifunctional aircraft Su-34 and Su-35, early warning aircraft A-50, transport aircraft An-26 and An- 72 of Russian Aerospace Forces. As part of the naval part of the military sports festival, Russian sailors demonstrated episodes of the landing and seizure of the coast by the Russian Navy Marine Corps to the guests and residents of the city of Tartous. In total, 9 warships, boats and support vessels of the Russian Navy, 14 aircraft of the Aerospace Forces and naval aviation of the Russian Navy, as well as two missile boats of the Syrian Navy took part in the festive events.

Turkey’s social media draft bill presages ‘new dark era’ of censorship, say critics
Reuters/Tuesday 28 July 2020
A proposed law that Turkey says will make social media companies more accountable to local regulations will rather increase censorship and accelerate a trend of authorities silencing dissent, critics including a UN body said this week. The Turkish parliament was to begin debate on Tuesday on the bill that is backed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling AK Party, which has a majority with an allied nationalist party. It is expected to pass this week. As an overwhelming majority of the country’s mainstream media has come under government control over the last decade, Turks have taken to social media and smaller online news outlets for critical voices and independent news. Turks are already heavily policed on social media and many have been charged with insulting Erdogan or his ministers, or criticism related to foreign military incursions and the handling of the coronavirus pandemic. The law would require foreign social media sites to appoint Turkish-based representatives to address authorities’ concerns over content and includes deadlines for its removal. Turkish prosecutors probe dozens over quake social media posts. Companies could face fines, blocked advertisements or have bandwidth slashed by up to 90 percent, essentially blocking access. “Social media is a lifeline... to access news, so this law signals a new dark era of online censorship,” said Tom Porteous, Human Rights Watch deputy program director. It would damage free speech in Turkey “where an autocracy is being constructed by silencing media and all critical voices”, he added. Presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said the bill would not lead to censorship but would establish commercial and legal ties with platforms. “What is a crime in the real world is also crime in the digital world,” he said on CNN Turk, adding that these included terrorism propaganda, insults and violation of personal rights. Turkey was second globally in Twitter-related court orders in the first six months of 2019, according to the company, and it had the highest number of other legal demands from Twitter. Erdogan has repeatedly criticized social media and said a rise of “immoral acts” online in recent years was due to lack of regulations.A spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said the draft law “would give the state powerful tools for asserting even more control over the media landscape.”It “would further undermine the right of people in Turkey to freedom of expression, to obtain information and to participate in public and political life”, said spokeswoman Liz Throsell.

US, Europe call for release of businessman jailed in Turkey for 1,000 days
Reuters, Istanbul/Tuesday 28 July 2020
The United States and Europe called on Turkey to release jailed businessman and philanthropist Osman Kavala, who on Monday marked his 1,000th day in prison without a conviction and despite an acquittal from a previous case. Kavala has been in jail since November 2017. He was initially accused of financing nationwide protests in 2013, but he was acquitted on those charges in February and was ordered to be released. Hours after the acquittal, however, he was ordered to be detained for another case related to a failed 2016 coup attempt and later formally arrested again. The charge on the same case was changed in March to espionage but an indictment has not been prepared. Kavala denies all charges. US State Department Principal Deputy Spokesperson Cale Brown called for Kavala's release given he has not been convicted. “We call upon Turkey to comply with its own commitment to justice and rule of law and to release Osman Kavala from detention, while pursuing a just, transparent, and speedy resolution to his case,” Brown said in a statement late on Monday. Nacho Sanchez Amor, the European Parliament's Turkey rapporteur, said Kavala had become a test for Turkey's sincerity with regards to human rights.
“We are pushing and pushing again for real justice in Turkey,” he said.Critics say the independence of Turkey's judiciary from politics has been badly eroded in recent years. President Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling AK Party say the judiciary makes its decisions independently. In a statement marking his 1,000 days in detention, Kavala said: “A parallel law enforcement system has been set in motion, which enables to keep in prison the persons who 'needed' to be punished, regardless of the established facts and concrete information about their activities.”

Sudan’s Hemedti Reveals Receiving Death Threats
Khartoum- Ahmed Younes/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 28 July, 2020
Sudan’s Deputy Head of the Sovereign Council Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, accused unnamed parties of threatening his life and warned against gold trafficking mafias and groups that are working to put a stoke in the wheel of the country’s economy.
Hemedti, speaking on the occasion of exporting two tons of gold and inaugurating the Sudanese Gold Exchange, said that there are parties working to disrupt the progress of the Sudanese economy. Hemedti accused the ‘mafia’ of working to lower the value of the Sudanese pound and of buying foreign currency at any price. “The country is controlled by a ‘mafia,’ a huge mob, and we must fight this mafia because the country’s progress is at stake,” Hemedti said. It is worth noting that Hemedti heads the emergency economic committee which was established last March to help the country’s economy recover from a downturn. The committee is tasked with undertaking strict and decisive measures to help fix economic imbalances. Hemedti warned groups he said had delivered life threats against him and said they were working to destroy the country, its social fabric, and unity. He vowed to stand up to these groups and to fight them no matter what.Hemedti called on confronting the mafias and gangs in the country who are working to sabotage progress and to present them to trial. He also warned of plans to divide Sudan. He violently attacked those criticizing his position as head of the emergency economic committee. Hemedti reaffirmed that he doesn’t support any political party and that his only target was to save the country from collapsing. He called on uniting the national front in the fight against corruption, criticizing companies that work in mining gold and which evade taxes and deny the economy the proceeds of exports. Hemedti revealed steps that include strict policies to prevent tampering and smuggling gold, starting with the activation of the principle of accounting, reviewing laws and legislations related to gold production and export, and reviewing licenses of foreign concession companies.
 

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 28-29/2020
Iran: The Mullahs Are Excited
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/July 28/2020
The ruling mullahs of Iran are excited. They are convinced that a new US president, like his previous boss, former President Barack Obama, will throw them the lifeline so badly needed for their survival, their hold on power, and their ability to advance their nuclear and other imperialist plans -- both in Venezuela against the United States, and in the Middle East.
Iran's economic conditions have become so dire that even some officials are warning of possible revolt and the collapse of the Islamic Republic.
It is important to note that without Iran's financial and military assistance, many militia and terror groups could not survive. As Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, admitted, "... Hezbollah's budget, its income, its expenses, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets, are from the Islamic Republic of Iran."
Iran's ruling mullahs are excited. They are convinced that a new US president, like his previous boss, former President Barack Obama, will throw them the lifeline so badly needed for their survival, their hold on power, and their ability to advance their nuclear and other imperialist plans. Pictured: Iran's President Hassan Rouhani.
One of the best gifts that the ruling mullahs of Iran can receive is if Joe Biden, former Vice-President, becomes president of the United States.
The regime is currently struggling politically and financially. Tehran's economy is on the verge of collapse. Inflation and unemployment rates are at record high levels, and the regime is finding extremely difficult to pay its employees, let alone its more luxurious obligations. Iran's economic conditions have become so dire that even some officials are warning of possible revolt and the collapse of the Islamic Republic.
The Iranian regime, in short, is in survival mode and -- to maintain its power as its oil exports continue to decline -- in desperate need of cash.
Before the Trump administration re-imposed sanctions on Tehran, Iran was exporting more than two million barrels of oil a day. According to the latest reports, Iran's oil export is now around 70,000 barrels a day. Iran's currency, the rial, has also been rapidly losing its value.
From the perspective of Iran's leadership, however, a significant amount of this pressure can be lifted if Biden wins the 2020 presidential elections. Iran's state-owned newspapers and politicians are, in fact, deliriously optimistic about Biden defeating Trump in the November elections. The headline in the newspaper Mardom Salari on July 20 read, "Biden Getting More Popular at Time of Trump's Decline".
If the former vice president wins the 2020 presidential elections, he can indeed solve many of the mullahs' problems. The Democrat Party's platform has already committed itself to returning to the JCPOA nuclear deal, which enables Iran in a few years to have an unlimited nuclear capability, and which President Donald J. Trump abandoned decisively.
The change in administration in the United States would mean that all sanctions will be lifted and billions of dollars would once again be flowing into the treasury of Iran's regime. It would be capable of deploying the extra revenues once again to fan the embers of unrest in the Middle East. This expansiveness would include funneling some of these new-found revenues into the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to enlarge the regime's influence and military stranglehold across the Middle East and Latin America, especially in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Venezuela.
A regime change America in would be seen as great news for Iran's beneficiaries as well, especially Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is also currently facing significant economic pressure. Assad was saved by the JCPOA nuclear deal -- which, incidentally, Iran never signed. He had been on the verge of bowing out. When Iran ramped up its investment in Syria by spending between $6- $35 billion a year to keep its staunchest regional ally in power, Assad received a welcome dose of adrenaline.
The sanctions have so far imposed enough pressure on the Iranian government that its leaders have been forced to cut funding even to its militias, allies and terror groups. The regime's militants are reportedly not getting their salaries or benefits, making it difficult for them to continue fighting on behalf of Tehran. "The golden days are gone," one Iranian-backed militia fighter in Syria told The New York Times, "and will never return. Iran does not have enough money to give us."
Those "golden days" can come back, all the same, if Biden becomes president. Iran will once again be able to strengthen its Shiite armies and their proxies: the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and the conglomerate of roughly 40 Iraqi Shiite groups under the banner of the Popular Mobilization Forces.
It is important to note that without Iran's financial and military assistance, many militia and terror groups could not survive. As Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, admitted:
"We are open about the fact that Hezbollah's budget, its income, its expenses, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets, are from the Islamic Republic of Iran. As long as Iran has money, we have money... Just as we receive the rockets that we use to threaten Israel, we are receiving our money. No law will prevent us from receiving it."
From the perspective of the ruling clerics of Iran, when Biden becomes president and returns to the nuclear deal, this infusion of cash would enable them to suppress domestic opposition even more powerfully and forcefully. It would also enable them to pay their radical loyalists, to advance the regime's revolutionary ideals and to ensure the hold on power of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The ruling mullahs of Iran are excited. They are convinced that a new U.S. president, like his previous boss, former President Barack Obama, will throw them the lifeline so badly needed for their survival, their hold on power, and their ability to advance their nuclear and other imperialist plans -- in Venezuela against the United States, and in the Middle East.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US foreign policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Trump Should Teach Erdogan a Lesson in Law, Not Corruption
Aykan Erdemir/John Lechner/FDD/July 28/2020
Donald Trump’s puzzling relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long perplexed policy watchers. Things have become much clearer after the release of The Room Where It Happened, the new book from former National Security Advisor John Bolton, which reveals new details about Trump, Erdogan, and Iran that should worry the public even more.
The most perplexing detail, less well-known to the public but frequently mentioned in Bolton’s book, is Trump’s soft spot for Halkbank — Turkey’s second-largest state bank, which federal prosecutors in October charged with helping Iran evade sanctions. Trump’s acquiescence in Erdogan’s tireless efforts to shield the Turkish bank and its accomplices from legal action remains sharply at odds with the U.S. president’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.
The Halkbank saga goes back to Obama-era sanctions against Iran and the Turkish lender’s role — with Erdogan’s approval — in helping Tehran illicitly transfer tens of billions of dollars, as part of one of the biggest sanctions-evasion schemes in history. U.S. authorities arrested Reza Zarrab, the Iranian-Turkish ringleader of the conspiracy in March 2016, along with Mehmet Hakan Atilla, Halkbank’s deputy general manager, in March 2017, for their respective roles in the scheme.
Zarrab then turned state’s witness in the high-profile Manhattan case that led to Atilla’s conviction in January 2018 for his participation in a “scheme to violate U.S. economic sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Attila received 32 months in prison, a ruling a federal appeals panel upheld on July 20. Halkbank, charged for the same scheme in October 2019, pleaded not guilty in a court in the Southern District of New York on March 31 and has moved for the recusal of the judge overseeing the case.
Bolton’s book paints the Halkbank case as Erdogan’s obsession, a “favorite subject, frequently discussed with Trump.” According to Bolton, Erdogan even brought Trump a “memo by the law firm representing Halkbank, which Trump did nothing more than flip through before declaring he believed Halkbank was totally innocent of violating U.S. Iran sanctions.”
Erdogan and Zarrab used other channels to meddle in the case as well. In the fall of 2017, Rudolph W. Giuliani and former Attorney General Michael Mukasey reportedly pressed Trump and then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to arrange a prisoner swap with Turkey. Retained by Zarrab, Giuliani and Mukasey had met with Erdogan in February 2017, but told the court two months later that they were seeking a “diplomatic solution.” This turned out to be a proposal to exchange Zarrab for U.S. Pastor Andrew Brunson, who was detained by Turkey in October 2016 on trumped-up charges of terrorism, espionage, and coup plotting. For Erdogan, the case is personal. A 2013 Turkish graft probe into Halkbank’s sanctions evasion network revealed that key Erdogan aides, including his ministers of the interior and economy, were on Zarrab’s payroll. Zarrab had earlier pledged to then-Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad his “national and moral duty” to contribute to the “economic jihad.”
This was not only a corruption-cum-national security scandal — the economy minister alone received payments totaling some $50 million for serving Iranian interests — but also a political one. The case showed that despite Erdogan’s self-righteous rhetoric surrounding Syria’s civil war, including criticism of the West for inaction in the face of mass atrocities, Turkey — a NATO ally — was bankrolling the Iranian regime, the key military and financial patron for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Erdogan was saving both Tehran and Damascus from economic ruin at the height of U.S. sanctions, while shedding crocodile tears over Syrian victims. Trump should have offered the Turkish president a much-needed lesson in the rule of law, separation of powers, and checks and balances — all in short supply in Erdogan’s Turkey. The U.S. president could have informed Erdogan about the BNP Paribas case, in which the U.S. Justice Department fined the French bank $8.9 billion for violating U.S. sanctions on Sudan, Cuba, and Iran. Many other U.S. and European banks have similarly accepted responsibility along with multi-billion fines.
Instead, according to Bolton, Trump told Erdogan, “he would take care of things,” and that “the Southern District prosecutors were not his people, but were Obama people, a problem that would be fixed.” For Turkey’s strongman, who routinely purges judges and prosecutors and makes cases magically disappear, this must have sounded like a done deal.
To Erdogan’s shock, U.S. prosecutors went forward with charges against Halkbank. The bank refused to recognize the court’s jurisdiction at first, but changed its mind when the prosecution asked for contempt fines, which could have totaled $1.8 billion after eight weeks.
More recently, following the release of Bolton’s book, Democratic Senator Ron Wyden, ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, accused Trump of “interfer[ing] in a criminal investigation into the largest sanctions violations scheme in U.S. history as a favor to Turkish President Erdogan,” calling on Bolton to provide more information. Erdogan must be watching in horror as a free press, independent courts, and effective legislative oversight click into gear. Erdogan remains a weak link in Trump’s Iran policy. The impunity Erdogan and Halkbank continue to enjoy will only embolden other sanctions-evasion networks, as well as their corrupt accomplices willing to bankroll Tehran’s nefarious activities in Syria and beyond.
Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish parliament and senior director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. John A. Lechner is a former financial analyst with Lazard and Deutsche Bank, who is currently a graduate student at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Follow Aykan and John on Twitter @aykan_erdemir and @JohnLechner1.

There’s a Bigger Threat Than Big Tech. It’s Big China
Emily de La Bruyère/Nathan Picarsic/FDD/July 28/2020
As lawmakers grill U.S. technology CEOs, they should ask not just about their near-monopoly power today, but also about staving off Chinese dominance tomorrow.
On July 27, Mark Zuckerberg, Sundar Pichai, Tim Cook, and Jeff Bezos will testify before the House Judiciary Committee. This will be among the final steps in the Committee’s antitrust investigation into America’s tech giants and the U.S. digital marketplace. The four CEOs are expected to answer questions about the relationship between their markets and existing regulations, as well as how their platform roles affect smaller competitors and consumers.
Such questions are valid. Regulations have not kept pace with evolving digital marketplaces. But the July 27 hearing – and the Judiciary Committee’s investigation writ large – risk overlooking the real threat to competition: The Chinese Communist Party.
American tech giants do not exist in a vacuum. Whether Congress acknowledges it or not, American companies are competing with the Chinese state and its state-backed corporate champions. And these Chinese players are competing to control a new global architecture. As we consider the state of American big tech, we should also ask what curtailing it means for the world: Do we want Facebook, Google, Apple, Amazon or do we want Beijing’s?
“Chinese standards will inevitably reach the world,” declared the Chinese Communist Party’s Global Times in April, “and that will not be stopped by geopolitical games.” Today, these Chinese standards – and networks and platforms – facilitate theft of American innovations, promotion of Beijing’s narrative and economic systems, and genocide of the Uighur minority in Xinjiang.
Information technology is creating a new global architecture. As Beijing sees it, a foundational information system – what the Chinese Academy of Sciences calls a ubiquitous network backbone – is taking shape. It connects the real and the virtual worlds. Smart trains, cars, TVs, and refrigerators link to this backbone. So do shopping and entertainment platforms, global logistics, payments, imagery, social media. This information architecture was emerging before COVID. It is developing more quickly now, as remote work, commerce, and communication define daily existence.
China’s global strategy hinges on establishing control of the ubiquitous information network, with it the “Internet of Everything.” And Beijing intends to use this control to acquire global dominance; both to collect full data on what is said, moved, and purchased, and to shape as much. Beijing propels its strategy by deploying select state champions, propped up by subsidies and intellectual property siphoned from foreign rivals.
The House Judiciary Committee worries that Amazon, motivated by profit, can adjust information on its platform to shape what is purchased at the expense of smaller competitors. But Beijing wants to build a global network with which it will shape what is said, moved, and purchased.
One way or another, the Internet of Things will be built, and on a global scale. If you take America’s tech giants out of the equation, Beijing will be the one to build it.
Imagine what happens when a nation-state claims Amazon’s power – but internationally, across domains, and with hegemonic ambitions. That country could shape international supply chains. It could shape international narratives so that the media tells a positive story about China – and targets it to receptive audiences. That country could control global data on land, air, and sea movement, of people and of things, military and commercial. It could feed that data to its industrial champions as they compete for global markets. It could influence insurance rates and credit ratings. It can obfuscate illicit activities to gain a competitive edge. As the former Director of China’s State Council’s Research Office put it in 2019, “The strategic contest among great powers is no longer about competitions for market scale and technological superiority. It is about competition for system design and rule-making.”
This, not just espionage, is the threat posed by Huawei and China’s 5G ambitions. It is also the threat posed by ByteDance and Beidou and AliPay, by China’s growing dominance in fintech, commercial drones, social media, sensor systems, next-generation transportation systems, and modern logistics platforms. China’s long-standing, national strategies are candid about its intentions: This calendar year, Beijing is expected to release its China Standards 2035 strategy, a program to extend the footholds claimed through the Made in China 2025 industrial plan into control over the networks, platforms, and standards that will govern the emerging world.
The U.S. is ill-prepared to respond. The contest for global networks plays to China’s strengths. It favors size, centralization, and efficiency of scale. In 2002, a scholar at Hunan University wrote that “where there are network effects, when a country has a larger user base, even though its technology is no better, even worse, than other countries, it can win the international competition for standards.” That framing recurs consistently in Chinese discourse.
The network contest also allows Beijing to subvert America’s traditional strengths: The U.S. has the strongest innovative capacity and the most influential private sector in the world. But China copies that innovation – Baidu’s resemblance to Google is no accident – and applies it, at scale, through government-guided companies, for strategic ends. U.S. fragmentation and openness give Beijing an angle in. They also stymy the communication and coordination necessary for an effective response.
What would such a response look like? It would recognize that a new global architecture is being formed. If that architecture is not defined by the U.S. private sector, it will be captured by an authoritarian adversary. An effective response would therefore marshal the enduring strengths of the U.S. private sector: innovative capacity, incumbency, and nimbleness that the centralized Chinese Communist Party cannot hope to rival. Through a system of patriotic shaping and in concert with trusted allies and partners, an effective U.S. response would encourage American companies to build a positive global architecture.
The need for such a response suggests a new line of questions for Mr. Zuckerberg, Pichai, Cook, and Bezos. Let us ask them what they are going to do about Beijing: How do they intend to protect U.S. innovation, fight authoritarian norms, and build a trustworthy ecosystem, while also permitting fair competition and expression?
Right now, American impulses risk tearing apart precisely the strengths that the U.S. needs in order to face down China’s threats. There is no doubt that Big Tech has its problems. But Big Brother, Beijing-style, is decidedly worse.
Emily de La Bruyère is a co-founder of Horizon Advisory and a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Nathan Picarsic is a co-founder of Horizon Advisory and a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Fed Hawks Are Endangered in the Covid Slowdown
John Authers/Bloomberg/July, 28/2020
It seems odd for familiar rhythms to continue in the time of Covid, but Wednesday will bring the latest announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee. It is easy to forget because, after some of the most dramatic months in central banking history, there is little question about what the Fed will do.
A chart from NatWest Markets, illustrates things perfectly. In the chart, the top two quadrants are for the hawkish members of the FOMC, while the bottom two are for the doves. All are dovish, with Chairman Jerome Powell and his deputy Richard Clarida right at the most dovish end of the scale.
This committee isn’t likely to spring a hawkish surprise. After single-handedly rescuing the markets earlier this year (we will find out about the consequences later), the Fed won't want to upset the apple cart. Lenient monetary policy is now taken for granted, while the critical actors are the health authorities, and the politicians who must decide on US fiscal policy. Covid-19 won’t allow the Fed to tighten for a while. Promising signs that the virus is coming under control in Arizona, and to a lesser extent in Florida and Texas, must be balanced by sharply increasing cases in a range of states in the south and Midwest, such as Alabama, Missouri and Wisconsin. Economic activity appears to be diminishing in affected areas, even without direct prodding from state governments.
Meanwhile, there is plentiful evidence that the resurgence of Covid has choked off an economic recovery. Labor market strength isn’t as great as hoped, making it acutely difficult for the Fed to tighten policy in any way. The US has seen a pleasantly surprising rebound in employment over the last few months, but that was only because it had previously suffered a particularly severe hit. This shows up clearly in international comparisons. The exercise, produced by Deutsche Bank AG foreign-exchange strategist Alan Ruskin, shows that only the Philippines has suffered a greater increase in unemployment since the end of last year. Real-time surveys suggests a renewed slowdown in US employment. Claims data last week showed that the number of lay-offs was rising again, having never come close to its levels before the outbreak. Unemployment data arrive with a lag, but real-time labor estimates produced by academics at Arizona State University and Virginia Commonwealth University aim to provide figures every other week, and to publish results the same week, reducing the delay. Their Real-Time Population Survey uses an online sample of the US working-age population.
One finding is that the proportion who are employed is falling again, after an initially encouraging rebound. Having reached a trough at 53.3%, this now stands at 59.4%.
Meanwhile, the picture for earnings is more concerning. Wages among those employed pre-Covid in February are barely any better now than they were three months ago, at the height of the initial lockdown. Almost 20% of those working in February aren’t employed, while about 13% are making do with significantly lower wages. This explains the importance of the negotiations over fiscal policy.
The survey also confirms two other disquieting trends. First, the Covid slowdown has been worse for women than for men (although the most recent downturn seems to have affected men slightly more).
There is little to no chance that the Fed will do anything hawkish in these conditions. For the future, it will need to decide on any revisions to its policy of forward guidance. As Bloomberg Opinion columnist Tim Duy explained earlier this month, the Fed might well signal that it is prepared to tolerate an inflation overshoot, at least until some specific rate of employment has been reached.
Recent history demonstrates that the Fed has had extreme difficulty getting inflation up to its target. A chart from Steven Englander of Standard Chartered Plc shows that by the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, the undershoot is getting wide indeed. Englander points out that this leaves lots of room for an intentionally vague new target. For example, if the Fed were to aim for an average 2% inflation rate over the cycle, but be unclear as to when the cycle started, there would be room to allow a very big overshoot.
It could also attempt to control the yield curve, or to stoke further asset purchases. But for the time being, it is hard to see how Powell can do much more than emphasize that the Fed will have to be guided by the state of progress in fighting the pandemic. As the movement in real-time employment measures makes clear, there is too much medical uncertainty for the Fed to take any confident position. And it also needs to wait to find out how elected politicians choose to support a labor market that sadly is still very much in need of assistance.

The Vital Reasons for Harmony between Red Sea, Aden Gulf Countries
Dya-Eddine Said Bamakhrama/Asharq Al Awsat/July 28/2020
Djibouti recently completed the necessary measures to ratify the founding charter of the Council of Arab and African Coastal States of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden that was signed in Riyadh on January 6, 2020. The signatories included the foreign ministers of Djibouti, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, Jordan and Eritrea.
Saudi Arabia came up with the idea of forming such a council. The signing of the Jeddah pact on April 21, 1956 between Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Yemen paved the way for the establishment of a “joint security system” in the Red Sea. In 1977, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and North Yemen called for Arab military cooperation as part of a tripartite alliance that will transform the Red Sea region into a “region of peace.”
For its part, Djibouti played an important role in protecting international security in the Red Sea, given its position overlooking the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This location has made it a central country in efforts exerted in preserving international security and stability through coordination and cooperation with major powers in protecting marine navigation, combating terrorism and confronting the security challenges facing the region and entire world. The international military bases that were recently set up in Djibouti are primarily aimed at combating terrorism and protecting international marine navigation in this strategic part of the world.
As for the idea of the council, Saudi Arabia, with its far-sighted approach, took the initiative to establish an entity that would bring together the Arab and African countries that border the Red Sea. Such a council would be aimed at bolstering the security and stability in the region. The concerned countries welcomed the call by attending the first meeting for their foreign ministers that took place in Riyadh on December 12, 2018. They reached an agreement to establish a body that includes all Arab and African countries that overlook the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. It would be aimed at coordination and cooperation among them and establishing means to achieve that in political, economic, security and environment fields.
Djibouti had early on proposed that the council set up its headquarters in Riyadh and that it be headed by the Saudi leadership for the following reasons:
- Saudi Arabia had come up with the idea to form such a council back in 1956.
- The Kingdom boasts strong and solid relations with all Arab and African countries that overlook the Red Sea. It is universally accepted by all countries.
- Saudi Arabia has massive means to lead extensive diplomacy among the concerned countries. It also boasts a rich diplomatic history and balanced foreign policy that allows it to play a pioneering influential role to attract other countries.
- Saudi Arabia has the longest coast that overlooks the Red Sea and it therefore, is the most vulnerable to any instability to any developments that may take place in area.
The above demonstrates that establishing an entity that would be bring together the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden countries was a priority for the concerned countries, especially Djibouti and Saudi Arabia. They realize the strategic political, economic, security and environmental significance of this marine region. This also reflects the harmony and alignment of visions and expectations by the leaderships of the brotherly countries: Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh and his brother, Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
President Ismail Omar Guelleh himself keenly oversaw the developments related to the establishment of the important regional council out of his belief of its positive impact on region’s economic, development and political scenes.
I must highlight the personal efforts exerted by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in forming the council through his direct contacts with the leaderships of the concerned countries. These efforts were crowned with the signing of the founding charter of the council in January. The member states have sensed the importance of coordination and consultations over the vital waterway, which is significant for the global economy, trade and investment, and seeing as the Red Sea is a main global trade route that connects east Asia to Europe.
I have, on more than one occasion, stressed that the leaderships and peoples of those countries have pinned high hopes on the formation of the council and what it can achieve in terms of stability, development and fruitful economic and political cooperation. There is no doubt that the economic and security harmony between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden countries will reflect positively on the people of this region and stand against any regional or international tensions that may impact this solidarity. In other works, the council will only bolster the significance of this vital waterway.

*Dya-Eddine Said Bamakhrama is Djibouti’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia.

Law Enforcement Doesn’t Need a Backdoor to Data
Michael Chertoff/Bloomberg/July, 28/2020
Earlier this year, French authorities successfully cracked Encrochat, an encrypted communications network often used by criminals, allowing European officials to make thousands of arrests, confiscate tons of drugs, and recover tens of millions of dollars. The investigation depended on advanced technical capabilities but, notably, not the one thing US law enforcement claims is vital to investigations: an encryption backdoor.
In the Encrochat case, law enforcement successfully conducted a large-scale investigation without the easy access to encrypted data that agencies have sought for years. Instead, they leveraged a flaw in the Encrochat platform to access criminals’ devices and read otherwise encrypted messages. Traditional investigation methods, paired with the use of communications metadata, such as IP addresses and timestamps, can be used to find evidence of suspected criminal activity, provided investigators are trained and have the right resources.
Yet law enforcement continues to pursue its proverbial skeleton key, one that Congress has moved closer to providing over the past few weeks. The Earn It Act, while stripped of its most objectionable provisions, has moved to the Senate floor, while another bill, the Lawful Access to Encrypted Data Act, would force technology companies to give law enforcement special access to customers’ secure private data, a metaphorical backdoor that bypasses the encryption. While the bills differ, both effectively wish away the basic facts of encryption, which have remained unchanged since the modern debate began in 2015: You cannot give law enforcement this access without undermining the effectiveness of that encryption, further exposing user data.
A fatal shooting carried out in December at the naval air station in Pensacola, Fla., by an al-Qaeda loyalist partly has prompted this recent push, but it’s a better example of how an investigation can be successful without an encryption backdoor. The shooter’s ties to extremists were well-documented in open-source information contained in his social media posts. US officials missed various pieces of evidence indicating the shooter’s affiliation and communications with al-Qaeda. An encryption backdoor wasn’t needed to access this data — law enforcement already had access. After the attack, investigators successfully opened the attacker’s encrypted devices using widely available commercial tools that exploit existing flaws.
Encryption backdoors would provide access to encrypted information that could, in some instances, offer a smoking gun. But giving this access comes at the cost of weakening encryption for everyone amid the Covid-19 outbreak, which has highlighted the increasing severity of cyberthreats, including alleged Chinese hacking of vaccine data. New backdoors would be targets for cybercriminals and create fresh vulnerabilities to be exploited. There is no sense in risking the public’s security to give a blanket capability to law enforcement when alternative tools and investigative methods already exist.
This is particularly true given that such mandates don’t work. Encryption technology is widely available from foreign providers and via open source — the cat is out of the bag; you cannot wish it back in. Forcing US companies to provide encryption backdoors would drive criminals to platforms beyond our reach or to develop their own capabilities. The only way to effectively enforce such a mandate would require an authoritarian policing of private devices.
Further, mandating encryption backdoors will empower authoritarian governments. These regimes will demand the same access provided to US authorities, using it to suppress dissent and generally terrorize their populations. Notably, the US actively criticizes alleged Chinese backdoors in Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.’s technology, numb to the irony that US criticisms of China’s efforts appear hypocritical as the US pursues its own backdoor access.
Finally, US companies will suffer if law enforcement gets its blanket access. (Full disclosure: My company’s clients include technology and security companies that use encryption to secure user data.) US mandates only apply to US companies, limiting the ability to compel foreign companies to comply. Foreign countries will levy the same criticisms the US lodges against countries such as China and tech firms such as Huawei against American companies that provide encryption backdoors. Will foreign citizens feel comfortable using technologies with a built-in encryption backdoor for US authorities?
Even in the absence of encryption backdoors, there are ways to strengthen law enforcement’s investigative abilities. Metadata can be extremely useful if used properly, as the Pensacola case demonstrates. Other means to access data — via service providers, cloud backups and suspects’ communications with other parties — can provide vital evidence without the need for backdoors. Existing vulnerabilities already offer options for law enforcement without the need for blanket access.
Enhancing the use of these tools requires greater funding and training, but the benefits far outweigh the drawbacks of a blanket encryption backdoor. These backdoors aren’t the silver bullet law enforcement wants them to be, and creating them would be a detriment to our collective cybersecurity.