LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 28.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
For every house is built by someone, but the builder of all things is God. Now Moses was faithful in all God’s house as a servant, to testify to the things that would be spoken later. Christ, however, was faithful over God’s house as a son, and we are his house if we hold firm the confidence and the pride that belong to hope.”
Letter to the Hebrews 02/14-18//03-01-06/:”Since, therefore, the children share flesh and blood, he himself likewise shared the same things, so that through death he might destroy the one who has the power of death, that is, the devil, and free those who all their lives were held in slavery by the fear of death. For it is clear that he did not come to help angels, but the descendants of Abraham. Therefore he had to become like his brothers and sisters in every respect, so that he might be a merciful and faithful high priest in the service of God, to make a sacrifice of atonement for the sins of the people. Because he himself was tested by what he suffered, he is able to help those who are being tested. Therefore, brothers and sisters, holy partners in a heavenly calling, consider that Jesus, the apostle and high priest of our confession, was faithful to the one who appointed him, just as Moses also ‘was faithful in all God’s house.’ Yet Jesus is worthy of more glory than Moses, just as the builder of a house has more honour than the house itself. (For every house is built by someone, but the builder of all things is God.)Now Moses was faithful in all God’s house as a servant, to testify to the things that would be spoken later. Christ, however, was faithful over God’s house as a son, and we are his house if we hold firm the confidence and the pride that belong to hope.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 27-28/2020
Lebanese 2020 budget passes despite concerns from civil society and protesters
Parliament Approves 2020 State Budget with 49 Votes
Lebanon's parliament passes 2020 budget as protests continue
Hariri on Budget Session: Mustaqbal Won't Boycott or Obstruct Institutions
Diab Chairs Policy Meeting, Says Budget Approval Sends Positive Signal
Jumblat: Budget Approval Better than Vacuum, Extrabudgetary Spending
Sayyed at Parliament: This is Not Jamil al-Sayyed's Govt.
President receives Ministers Akar and Najm, discusses ministries' work
Rahi tackles developments with Kataeb chief
Several Lawmakers Boycott Budget Session
Injuries, Arrests as Beirut Protesters Seek to Disrupt Budget Session
Lebanon's bonds fall as debt restructuring decision looms
Heavy security in Beirut as parliament convenes on budget
Diab Says Won’t Obstruct Budget Prepared by Previous Cabinet
Top global banking agency proposes an IMF bailout/TK Maloy/Annahar/January 27/2020
US Holds Back from Sanctioning Non-Shiite Lebanese Officials after Hale Intervenes/Mohammed Choucair/Asharq/ Al Awsat/January 27/2020
Lebanon: What Distinguishes Today/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January 27/2020
Where Failure Is More Dangerous Than Coronavirus/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/January 27/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 27-28/2020
Iran says preparing site for satellite launch; US deems a cover up
Iranians should not let Trump harm national unity: Rouhani
Report: Rouhani Threatened to Resign after IRGC Covered up Downing of Ukrainian Plane
Iranian Plane Skids into Highway
Magnitude 5.4 earthquake hits southern Iran
Trump says to release Middle East peace plan on Tuesday
Trump Meets Netanyahu, Insists U.S. Peace Plan Has a 'Chance'
Israel’s Gantz praises Trump peace plan, pledges to implement it after poll
King Abdullah prepared to reject Trump's 'Deal of the Century' if it penalises Jordan
Palestinians Hint at Dissolving PA in Response to US Peace Plan
US calls on Iraq to protect Baghdad embassy after rocket attack
Three French nationals missing in Iraq: French FM Le Drian
Diplomats in Iraq condemn excessive violence, urge credible probe into deaths
Iraq PM in call with Pompeo stresses need for de-escalation
Salih Resumes Consultations on Iraqi Government Formation
Washington Urges South Sudan to Form Transitional Government on Time
Canadian Statement on International Holocaust Remembrance Day
Bin Alawi Meets Zarif for 4th Time this Month
Experts: Coronavirus Can't be Transmitted via Mail, Imported Items
World Grieves for NBA Legend Kobe Bryant after Helicopter Crash

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 27-28/2020
The Ukrainian Plane and a ‘Chernobyl Moment/Bobby Ghosh/Asharq Al Awsat/January 27/2020
Palestinian Elections: How Abbas and Europe Are Trying to Blame Israel/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/January 27/2020
Turkey's 'Truthophobia'/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/January 27/2020
ISIS Spokesman Dismisses Trump's Declarations Of Annihilating ISIS, Declares War On Israel: 'Oh Soldiers Of The Caliphate Everywhere... Go For The Israeli Settlements And Marketplaces; Turn Them Into Lands For Testing Your Weapons... Attack The Jews And Slaughter Them/MEMRI/January 27/2020
Facing problems at home, Jeff Bezos manufactures Saudi conspiracies/Mohammed Alyahya/Al Arabiya/January 27/2020
Israel should tread carefully when it comes to annexation/Chris Doyle/Arab News/January 28/2020
Global economic prospects face many dangers/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/January 28/2020
Abduction business a profitable string to IRGC’s bow/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 28/2020
How coronavirus outbreak threatens national security/Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arab News/January 28/2020
Geopolitical tensions may make EastMed pipeline unfeasible/Ramzy Baroud/Arab News/January 28/2020

Details Of The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorial published on January 27-28/2020
Lebanese 2020 budget passes despite concerns from civil society and protesters
Abby Sewell, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 27 January 2020
Lawmakers in Beirut passed a budget Monday over the objections of protesters – who attempted to block access to the Parliament building – and a number of economists raised concerns that the measures laid out in the fiscal plan could worsen the country’s economic woes. The budget vote took place as protesters and security forces scuffled outside the perimeter that had been set up around the Parliament building – concrete blast walls were hastily erected in recent days to keep demonstrators away from government buildings in downtown Beirut – and a number of protesters were arrested. Parliament approved the budget with 49 members supporting the plan, 13 in opposition and eight abstaining.
Legislators from the Future Movement party of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who joined the session at the last minute, providing a quorum for it to proceed, opposed or abstained from voting, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency. Protesters objected to the adoption of a budget drafted by the previous government, which was ousted as a result of the mass demonstrations, with Hariri resigning on October 29. Some also questioned whether lawmakers could legally adopt the budget when the newly appointed Cabinet has yet to be confirmed. Hariri’s replacement, Prime Minister Hassan Diab, said Monday that his government would not stand in the way of endorsement of the budget prepared by the former Cabinet, and would leave it to the Parliament to discuss and approve the bill.
“Constitutionally, it’s blurred,” said Jad Chaaban, an associate professor of economics at the American University of Beirut who has been supportive of the protests. “But ethically, politically, and also from a governmental perspective, how can you vote [on] a 2020 budget that is basically binding to the new government, knowing that this budget, first, has now many wrong estimations because inflation is now very high and growth figures definitely will plummet? And, second, how can you tie the hands of the new government when you’re saying this government will go out and implement reforms?”
The budget projects a government deficit equal to about 7 percent of GDP. In an analysis issued ahead of the budget vote, Kulluna Irada, an NGO pushing for political reforms, noted that the projected deficit for 2020 is 4.8 trillion Lebanese lira compared to 6.8 trillion in the 2019 budget and about 7.3 trillion in reality for 2019, but argued that the projected “cuts in spending are nor credible, nor sustainable.”
The group added that the projected deficit reduction, which is largely based upon a “gentleman’s agreement” with the Lebanon’s central bank, Banque du Liban (BDL), to waive the interest on government debt, is a continuation of the past practice of using “monetary policy to cover for fiscal spending, and transfer the government’s deficit to BDL, has led the country to its current financial position and has depleted BDL’s foreign exchange reserves down to alarmingly low levels.”The budget “relies on a significant and artificial reduction of the cost of servicing the local debt, without dealing with the stock of debt,” the group wrote. “We are worried that such temporary solutions would only postpone the inevitable while increasing the cost on society through inflation and the devaluation of the lira.”The lira, officially pegged to the dollar at 1,507 lira to the dollar, has been undergoing de facto inflation in recent months, with the exchange rate on the street rising to more than 2,000 lira to the dollar. Ibrahim Kanaan, chair of finance and budget parliamentary commission, acknowledged during the session that revenue projections might not be accurate but said that passing the budget is a necessary first step toward getting the country out of its fiscal crisis, but that “our work is not enough unless it is followed by an urgent plan to get out of the crisis and reach safety.”“Lebanon today is at a critical juncture in terms of the financial situation as a whole,” he said. “It requires everyone to completely remove this file from the circle of political tensions… we are in a structural financial crisis, and we have to admit it first and work hard to address it second.”

Parliament Approves 2020 State Budget with 49 Votes
Naharnet/January 27/2020
Parliament on Monday approved the 2020 state budget in a controversial session that was boycotted by several blocs and MPs. MPs from the Strong Lebanon bloc, the Loyalty to Resistance bloc, the Development and Liberation bloc and the Social Nationalist bloc in addition to the lawmakers Nicolas Nahas and Adnan Trabulsi voted in favor of the bill, a total of 49 legislators. The Democratic Gathering bloc meanwhile abstained from voting as MP Farid al-Khazen voted against the budget. As for the al-Mustaqbal bloc, some of its members abstained as other members voted against.
The 2020 budget was drafted by the government of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who resigned in late October in response to nationwide protests. Protesters, and some politicians, described the budget session as illegitimate and unconstitutional. They said the prime minister's new government has no right to attend and discuss the budget before it wins parliament's vote of confidence. Moreover, the budget was drafted by the previous government under Hariri, which resigned amid pressure from the street. Shortly before noon, more than half the 128-member parliament were present, giving the needed quorum for the session to begin, amid clashes between protesters and security forces in the area around the parliament. The Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party and a number of independent MPs boycotted the session. The new budget aims to reduce deficit to around 7 percent of gross domestic product, parliament budget committee chairman Ibrahim Kanaan said. That would be only a tiny drop from the planned deficit of almost 7.6 percent of GDP for last year, after a shortfall of 11.2 percent in 2018.
The last government had promised a deficit of just 0.6 percent for 2020, but Kanaan said that was now impossible as the unravellng economic crisis had caused projected revenues for the year to decrease.
Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab attended the parliament session without any other member of his Cabinet. When pressed by members of al-Mustaqbal bloc whether he would adopt the budget drafted by the former Cabinet, Diab said: "Had we not adopted the budget we wouldn't have come today.""There is nothing normal in Lebanon today and the economic and financial complications make us work quickly," Diab said. Lebanon has one of the world's highest public debts in the world, standing at more than 150% of gross domestic product. Growth has plummeted and the budget deficit reached 11% of GDP in 2018 as economic activities slowed and remittances from Lebanese living abroad shrank. The national currency, which has been pegged to the dollar since 1997, lost about 60% of its value in recent weeks, raising alarms among many Lebanese who have been losing their purchase power.
Legislator Salim Saadeh listed Lebanon's financial and economic problems, ranging from the massive debt to the drop in the local currency. "We are like someone drowning in mud but at the same time standing in front of a mirror and brushing his teeth," Saadeh said

Lebanon's parliament passes 2020 budget as protests continue
The New Arab & agencies
Lebanon's parliament on Monday passed the 2020 budget, state media said, as leaders struggle to redress a plummeting economy and address anti-establishment protests. Lebanon has since 17 October been gripped by a unified popular movement that toppled the government and created a three-month political vacuum until a new cabinet was announced last week. Thousands of soldiers, including special forces, as well as riot policemen were deployed on major roads in the capital and its suburbs as they attacked protesters who were demonstrating against the budget. Beirut committed in 2018 to slashing public spending as part of reforms to unlock more than $11 billion in desperately needed international aid. The new budget aims to reduce deficit to around 7 percent of gross domestic product, parliament budget committee chairman Ibrahim Kanaan said. That would be only a tiny drop from the planned deficit of almost 7.6 percent of GDP for last year, after a shortfall of 11.2 percent in 2018. The last government had promised a deficit of just 0.6 percent for 2020, but Kanaan said that was now impossible as the unravelling economic crisis had caused projected revenues for the year to decrease. In recent months, thousands of Lebanese have been laid off or seen their salaries slashed as the value of the Lebanese pound has fallen by more than a third on the parallel exchange market. Only 70 of the 128 members of parliament attended Monday's vote, just days after Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced his new team, the state-run National News Agency said. The budget was passed with 49 lawmakers in favour, 13 against, and eight abstaining, the agency said. Diab, who attended the session but whose cabinet still needs to be approved by the legislature, said his team would not hamper the budget prepared by the former government.
Kanaan however said the new cabinet could carry out amendments.

Hariri on Budget Session: Mustaqbal Won't Boycott or Obstruct Institutions
Naharnet/January 27/2020
Al-Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri stressed Monday that al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc will not “boycott or obstruct” state institutions, defending the bloc’s decision to take part in a controversial parliament session that approved the 2020 state budget. “I stress to whom it may concern, and to anyone who is trying to seize the chance to fabricate campaigns, that al-Mustaqbal bloc will not be a tool for boycotting or obstructing institutions,” Hariri tweeted. “It performed its duty, did not evade its responsibilities and voiced its stance openly in parliament and under the constitution,” he added. “This is Rafik Hariri’s school and we will not abandon it no matter how hard the difficulties may get… When it is time for taking a decision that serves Lebanon’s interest we will take the appropriate decision,” the ex-PM went on to say. Al-Mustaqbal bloc had earlier issued a statement saying it had voted against the 2020 state budget bill out of its belief that “the numbers included no longer reflect reality.”“The economy is now different in size and quality compared to how it was when the previous government endorsed the draft budget,” it said. “The current government should have won the vote of confidence before taking part in a session debating the budget,” it added. The controversial session that was boycotted by several blocs and MPs, including those of the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party. Only 49 legislators voted in favor of the state budget. The Democratic Gathering bloc meanwhile abstained from voting. The 2020 budget was drafted by the government of Saad Hariri, who resigned in late October in response to nationwide protests. Protesters, and some politicians, described the budget session as illegitimate and unconstitutional. They said the prime minister's new government has no right to attend and discuss the budget before it wins parliament's vote of confidence. Moreover, the budget was drafted by the previous government under Hariri, which resigned amid pressure from the street. Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab attended the parliament session without any other member of his Cabinet. When pressed by members of al-Mustaqbal bloc whether he would adopt the budget drafted by the former Cabinet, Diab said: "Had we not adopted the budget we wouldn't have come today.""There is nothing normal in Lebanon today and the economic and financial complications make us work quickly," Diab said.

Diab Chairs Policy Meeting, Says Budget Approval Sends Positive Signal
Naharnet/January 27/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Monday presided over the fourth meeting of the ministerial panel tasked with drafting the Policy Statement of the new government. “PM Dr. Hassan Diab stressed at the beginning of the session that the approval of the state budget in parliament sends a positive signal domestically and externally, regardless of the reservations related to the circumstances of this budget and its content,” Information Minister Manal Abdul Samad said after the meeting. “PM Diab said the government was keen on facilitating the adoption of this budget in light of its vital importance for the continuity of the state’s work and out of commitment to the constitutional deadlines,” Abdul Samad added. “The PM underlined that the approval of the budget is a juncture that allows the government to focus its work on finalizing the Policy Statement, which should be completed as soon as possible. That’s why a series of consecutive meetings will be held this week to continue drafting the statement,” the minister went on to say. She revealed that the committee has conducted a first reading of the completed part of the draft, amending some articles and adding others related to the plans of some ministries. “The committee will continue to receive the work plans of all ministries over the next two days,” she added. Asked whether anything is “obstructing” the statement, Abdul Samad said: “Nothing is obstructing the Policy Statement and we are only taking our time on each point in order to meet the domestic and foreign demands.”

Jumblat: Budget Approval Better than Vacuum, Extrabudgetary Spending
Naharnet/January 27/2020
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat on Monday noted that “the step of approving the state budget is better than vacuum or extrabudgetary spending,” although the PSP-led Democratic Gathering bloc has abstained from voting on the bill in parliament. “The government must propose serious reforms, topped by ones related to the electricity sector, its regulatory commission and the law on the judiciary’s independence,” Jumblat tweeted. “It’s the beginning of a long journey, while taking into consideration the forces and ghosts of the pasts who are in control of the government, which is something that is not promising,” the PSP leader added.

Sayyed at Parliament: This is Not Jamil al-Sayyed's Govt.
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 27/2020
MP Jamil al-Sayyed on Monday stressed that Hassan Diab’s new government is not “Jamil al-Sayyed’s government,” denying media reports and political accusations that have suggested that he played a key role in its formation. “This is not Jamil al-Sayyed’s government as it is being said and I will speak about the issue during the confidence session,” Sayyed said in a speech before parliament during a session to vote on the 2020 state budget. “I wish we held a session prior to this one in order to discuss the current situation. This parliament is for the people,” the MP lamented. “Had this parliament and the successive governments felt the people’s suffering, we would not have reached the brink of explosion,” Sayyed added, referring to the country's dire economic and financial crisis and the popular uprising that has been raging since October 17. Describing the approval of the 2020 budget, which was prepared by the resigned government, as a “crime,” the MP noted that “the anticipated revenues have become almost void due to the situation which has prevented communication between the state and the citizen.” “Accordingly, people have been given a grace period as of the middle of the year to pay their overdue fees,” he said. Sayyed also urged Speaker Nabih Berri to hold other sessions after the approval of the budget in order to discuss the demands of the protest movement. Parliament later approved the 2020 budget in a controversial session that was boycotted by several blocs and MPs. Protesters, and some politicians, described the budget session as illegitimate and unconstitutional. They said the prime minister's new government has no right to attend and discuss the budget before it wins parliament's vote of confidence. Moreover, the budget was drafted by the previous government under Hariri, which resigned amid pressure from the street. The former government had hopes to bring down the budget deficit to 7.6% of the GDP in 2019 year and to 6.5% in 2020.

President receives Ministers Akar and Najm, discusses ministries' work
NNA/January 27/2020
President Michel Aoun devoted his before-noon meetings to follow up the work of Ministries. The President also tackled the obstacles facing Ministries, and ways to overcome them. President Michel Aoun met with the Deputy Prime Minister, and Minister of National Defense, Zeina Akar, and discussed with her the general situation and developments, in addition to the work of institutions affiliated to her Ministry. Numerous issues concerning the Lebanese army were also discussed. President Aoun met the Minister of Justice, Marie-Claude Najm, the head of the Supreme Judicial Council, Judge Souhail Abboud, and the head of "Shura" State Council, Judge Fadi Elias. The President discussed the work of judicial institutions especially in terms of activating courts and speeding up the issuance of judgements. Minister Najm indicated that the research dealt with the legal workshop, which the Ministry of Justice and the Supreme Judicial Council are working on preparing, in addition to combatting corruption, and independence of the judiciary. -----Presidency Press Office

Rahi tackles developments with Kataeb chief
NNA/January 27/2020
Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Bechara Boutros Rahi welcomed on Monday in Bkerke Head of the Lebanese Kataeb Party, MP Sami Gemayel, accompanied by Vice Head, former Minister Selim Al Sayegh and Dr Faraj Kerbaj. Discussions mainly focused on the latest developments on the local arena, and the Party's stance vis-a-vis these developments as well as its proposed solutions and future vision.

Several Lawmakers Boycott Budget Session
Naharnet/January 27/2020
The Lebanese Forces Strong Republic parliamentary bloc on Monday boycotted a parliament session dedicated to discuss and later endorse the 2020 state budget. The bloc said it decided not to participate because the parliament convenes to discuss the budget before a confidence vote for the new chosen government, and because the people reject it. MP Faisal Kamari, Paula Yaacoubian, Naamet Ifrem, Jihad Abdul Samad and many others said they will refrain from attending. Lawmakers are scheduled to begin a two-day discussion and later approval of the state budget amid a crippling financial crisis.Lebanese security forces scuffled with protesters near the parliament building in downtown Beirut. Thousands of soldiers, including special forces, as well as riot policemen were deployed on major roads in the capital and its suburbs. They had sealed off the zone leading to parliament to prevent protesters from blocking the lawmakers' path. Protesters blocked roads further afield in an effort to prevent lawmakers from reaching the building. The protesters have been demonstrating for more than three months against the ruling elite that has run the country since the end of the 1975-90 civil war. The protesters have rejected the new 20-member government of Prime Minister Hassan Diab, which was announced last week.

Injuries, Arrests as Beirut Protesters Seek to Disrupt Budget Session
Associated Press/January 27/2020
Security forces clashed with protesters in downtown Beirut on Monday, leaving several demonstrators injured and others detained. As the protests simmered outside parliament, lawmakers held a controversial session to discuss and later approve the state budget amid a crippling financial crisis.
Hundreds of soldiers, including special forces, as well as riot policemen were deployed on major roads in the capital and its suburbs. They had sealed off the zone leading to parliament to prevent protesters from barricading the lawmakers' path. The protesters had in turn blocked roads further afield in an effort to stop lawmakers from reaching the building, but security forces managed to keep a single road open. Lebanon's protest movement broke out on Oct. 17 over government plans to impose new taxes. Protest organizers say the movement will not accept anything less that the resignation of the ruling elite. Those elites have run the country since the end of the 1975-90 civil war, and protesters blame them for widespread corruption and mismanagement. The protesters have rejected the new 20-member government of Prime Minister Hassan Diab, which was announced last week. At one point, Monday's rallies turned violent as protesters removed barbed wire from a road leading to parliament and were chased by riot policemen, who beat them with clubs. The protesters threw stones at the police, who detained about a dozen of them. The Lebanese Red Cross said at least 27 people were injured, including eight who were taken to hospitals. Over the past two weeks, downtown Beirut witnessed riots that left more than 500 civilians and policemen injured.
The 2020 budget, which was later approved in the session with only 49 out of 128 votes, was drafted by the government of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who resigned in late October in response to the nationwide protests. The tight security measures underscored lawmakers' determination to hold the budget session. In November, thousands of protesters closed roads leading to parliament, forcing a postponement of a legislative session after most lawmakers weren't able to reach the legislature. Protesters, and some politicians, have described the budget session as illegitimate and unconstitutional. They say the prime minister's new government has no right to attend and discuss the budget before it wins parliament's vote of confidence. Moreover, the budget being discussed was drafted by the previous government under Hariri, which resigned amid pressure from the street. Shortly before noon, more than half the 128-member parliament were present, giving the needed quorum for the session to begin. The Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party and a number of independent MPs boycotted the session. Diab attended the parliament session without any other member of his Cabinet. When pressed by members of Hariri's bloc whether he will adopt the budget drafted by the former Cabinet, Diab said: "Had we not adopted the budget we wouldn't have come today."
"There is nothing normal in Lebanon today and the economic and financial complications make us work quickly," Diab said.
In recent days, security forces set up concrete blast walls around parliament and the nearby government headquarters, known as the Grand Serail, to keep protesters from reaching them. Lebanon has one of the world's highest public debts in the world, standing at more than 150% of gross domestic product. Growth has plummeted and the budget deficit reached 11% of GDP in 2018 as economic activities slowed and remittances from Lebanese living abroad shrank. The national currency, which has been pegged to the dollar since 1997, lost about 60% of its value in recent weeks, raising alarms among many Lebanese who have been losing their purchase power. The former government had hopes to bring down the budget deficit to 7.6% of the GDP in 2019 year and to 6.5% in 2020. With the financial crisis worsening since the protests began, it is appearing more difficult to bring down the deficit. Legislator Salim Saadeh listed Lebanon's financial and economic problems, ranging from the massive debt to the drop in the local currency. "We are like someone drowning in mud but at the same time standing in front of a mirror and brushing his teeth," Saadeh said

Lebanon's bonds fall as debt restructuring decision looms
Reuters, London/Monday, 27 January 2020
Lebanon’s government bonds fell to fresh lows on Monday as traders waited on a possible government decision about how it will deal with its debt, including a $1.2 billion Eurobond maturing in March. An April 2021 issue shed 2 cents to 50.4 cents in the dollar, while an October 2022 bond
dropped 1.9 cents to 43.2 cents in the dollar, Tradeweb data showed. The sell-off preceded a possible government decision on whether its March bond – the next due for repayment – might be included in any debt restructuring. Hours after he was named, Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni last week said the government must decide on its approach to the $1.2 billion issue. “I suppose market sentiment may be leaning that they may be included [in any debtrestructuring],” said Giyas Gokkent, of JPMorgan Securities.

Heavy security in Beirut as parliament convenes on budget
The Associated Press, Beirut/Monday, 27 January 2020
Lebanese security forces scuffled Monday with protesters near the parliament building in downtown Beirut, where lawmakers are scheduled to begin a two-day discussion and later approval of the state budget amid a crippling financial crisis. Thousands of soldiers, including Special Forces, as well as riot policemen were deployed on major roads in the capital and its suburbs. They had sealed off the zone leading to parliament to prevent protesters from blocking the lawmakers’ path. Protesters blocked roads further afield in an effort to prevent lawmakers from reaching the building. The protesters have been demonstrating for more than three months against the ruling elite that has run the country since the end of the 1975-90 civil war. The protesters have rejected the new 20-member government of Prime Minister Hassan Diab, which was announced last week. During the two-day session, parliament is scheduled to discuss the 2020 budget that was drafted by the government of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who resigned in late October in response to the nationwide protests. The tight security measures underscored determination to hold the two budget sessions despite the protests. In November, thousands of protesters closed roads leading to parliament, forcing a postponement of a legislative session after most lawmakers weren’t able to reach the legislature. In recent days, security forces have set up concrete blast walls around parliament and the nearby government headquarters, known as the Grand Serial, to keep protesters from reaching them. Over the past two weeks, downtown Beirut witnessed riots that left more than 500 civilians and policemen injured. The protest movement broke out on Oct. 17 over government plans to impose new taxes. Protest organizers say the movement will not accept anything less that the resignation of the ruling elite, who they blame for widespread corruption and mismanagement. Lebanon has one of the world’s highest public debts in the world, standing at more than 150 percent of gross domestic product. Growth has plummeted and the budget deficit reached 11 percent of GDP in 2018 as economic activities slowed and remittances from Lebanese living abroad shrank. The national currency that has been pegged to the dollar since 1997 lost about 60 percent of its value in recent weeks, raising alarms among many Lebanese who have been losing their purchase power.
The former government had hopes to bring down the budget deficit to 7.6 percent of the GDP in 2019 year and to 6.5 percent in 2020.

Diab Says Won’t Obstruct Budget Prepared by Previous Cabinet
Naharnet/January 27/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab said on Monday that his government is not going to obstruct the 2020 state budget prepared by the former government of PM Saad Hariri who resigned in October. Speaking at the beginning of the parliament session dedicated to discuss and later approve said budget, Diab said: “Nothing is going normally in Lebanon today, the current economic and financial complications compel us to behave out of necessity and logic.” Referring to the absence of ministers, he said “the government can not collectively appear before the parliament before the vote of confidence, but it will not hinder a budget prepared by the former government.” MP Samir el-Jisr and several other MPs of al-Mustaqbal Movement, urged the PM to announce whether he is going to “adopt” the controversial budget ever prepared by the government of his predecessor PM Saad Hariri. Diab’s government was formed last week but it still has to gain a vote of confidence in parliament.

Top global banking agency proposes an IMF bailout
TK Maloy/Annahar/January 27/2020
By many expectations, the country and the economy are expected to collapse by June at the latest given no intervention or comprehensive plan on the part of the new government, according to a number of expert commentators.
BEIRUT: The Institute of International Finance, a prestigious global association of banks and other financial institutions issued a report Sunday calling for a number of drastic reforms, including an IMF bailout, to halt Lebanon’s collapsing economy.
By many expectations, the country and the economy are expected to collapse by June at the latest given no intervention or comprehensive plan on the part of the new government, according to a number of expert commentators. The Central Bank will have potentially exhausted its current account funds by then because of the heavy bond repayments required.
In an executive summary, IIF analysts, including Garbis Iradian, Chief IIF Economist-MENA, suggest an action plan of which follows is an executive summary.
The reforms proposed by the IIF “will be necessary or should be considered to lift Lebanon out of the current crisis."Reducing interest rates; restoring the health of the banking system; sustaining fiscal adjustment; reforming EDL; seeking an IMF program to anchor reforms and secure additional financing; considering debt rescheduling; unifying the exchange rates under stable conditions and position of strength; privatizing the two mobile companies and other public entities to reduce public debt; reducing corruption and establishing a social safety fund.
“Lebanon’s economic deterioration has accelerated dramatically: we (IIF) estimate a contraction of 3.8 percent in 2019, including more than a 10 percent output decline in Q4; the fiscal deficit has widened to 11.6 percent of GDP; public debt has increased to 166 percent of GDP; inflation has increased significantly, and layoffs and forced wage decreases have spiked,” according to the full IIF report.
The report added that to restore growth, the government will need additional capital inflows from official sources.
Expanding on the executive summary, the IIF noted in the full report that ”given the authorities’ track record over the past three decades, it is possible the actual reforms will fall short of what is necessary to restore macroeconomic stability. “
The IIF has projected external financing needs at $24 billion over 2020-2024. In addition to the $11 billion of loans from CEDRE, the new the government will need to enact some of the following reforms, including an IMF program (the IIF estimated $8.5 billion) to provide a strong policy framework and catalyze additional financing ($13 billion) to boost the country’s FC reserves.
Additionally, Lebanon should examine the possibility and consequences of re-profiling its domestic public debt.
Also, fiscal reforms need to be initiated to address deep-seated spending rigidities, eliminate the budget transfers to Electricité du Liban (EDL), and raise revenues in ways that minimize the negative impact on the poor, including fighting tax evasion.
The IIF “welcomes” the move by the Central Bank of Lebanon (BDL) and commercial banks to reduce interest rates on all deposits, loans, and public debt. “Continued action on this front would improve liquidity in the banking sector and increase confidence, which would encourage investment and ease the pain of fiscal adjustment.”According to the IIF report, banks’ financial health will be strengthened through recapitalization and resolution of impaired assets, which will be critical to regaining confidence and support recovery. Privatization should be part of the economic plan of the new government with a view to increasing investment, reducing the stock of government debt, and improving efficiency. However, the establishment of better oversight and accountability mechanisms is an essential precondition. Other structural reforms should include fighting rampant corruption and improving the business environment.
Such adjustments can be difficult, and Lebanon is already experiencing rising poverty and inequality. To protect those affected by the current crisis, a Social Fund could be established, financed by foreign grants and recovery of stolen public funds, according to the IIF report.
To reprise, so readers don’t interpret that this is a bailout as such – free money – if Lebanon calls for IMF/or World Bank assistance, the expectations are that state subsidies to EDL would be slashed, thus increasing the cost of electricity at the household level, there will likely be an increase in the VAT, and a variety of hard-hitting structural reforms would be enacted. Including cuts to government employment through attrition – when a civil servant retires they would not be replaced. Both the IIF and the World Bank provide assistance based on heavy conditionally and loan terms, in which the freewheeling political class of Lebanon will require a new discipline in spending.
Last weekend the new Finance Minister Gazi Wazni met with IMF alternative director from the IMF Sami Geadah on Saturday in what he termed a “courtesy visit,” this follows a Friday visit by Finance Minister Wazni with a delegation from the World Bank including regional director Saroj Kumar Jha. The minister alluded to talks elsewhere in the government on asking for multilateral assistance.
*The Institute of International Finance is the global association of the financial industry, with close to 450 members from 70 countries. Its mission is to support the financial industry in the prudent management of risks; to develop sound industry practices; and to advocate for regulatory, financial and economic policies that are in the broad interests of its members, and foster global financial stability and sustainable economic growth.
IIF members include commercial and investment banks, asset managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, central banks and development banks.

US Holds Back from Sanctioning Non-Shiite Lebanese Officials after Hale Intervenes
Mohammed Choucair/Asharq/ Al Awsat/January 27/2020
The United States had been mulling the possibility of imposing sanctions against non-Shiite Lebanese officials who are closely allied with the Hezbollah party and have defended its policies before the international community, revealed a prominent Lebanese political source.
US Undersecretary for Political Affairs, David Hale, however, intervened to halt the sanctions, describing them as a “nuclear weapon” that would speed up Lebanon’s collapse, said the source. His intervention was interpreted as an attempt to allow these figures to reconsider their pro-Hezbollah positions. The government, which was unveiled last week after much political bickering, is dominated by Hezbollah ministers and its allies. This has fueled skepticism over the cabinet’s ability to attract much-needed foreign support to help Lebanon overcome its worst economic crisis in decades.
The source remarked that the international community’s welcoming of the formation of the cabinet does not mean that it will automatically receive financial aid. It had no choice but to welcome the government because the alternative would have been keeping Lebanon in a “prolonged and fatal” political vacuum. The international community is now awaiting Lebanon to fulfill its reform obligations as stipulated in the 2018 CEDRE conference, which will pave the way for it to help it resolve its economic and financial crises. International powers will in no way give Lebanon “free” aid without the introduction of any reforms, said the source. Officials have a high mountain to climb in restoring confidence in Lebanon given Hezbollah’s domination of the government. Attention will be turned to the new cabinet’s foreign policy. The new ministers, many of whom have dual Lebanese and American or European nationality, have informed ambassadors that the cabinet will adopt a moderate policy, explaining that the party is aware of the very fragile economic and financial situation Lebanon is enduring. The party will seek a moderate stance with Arab nations because it is in dire need of its help, especially since it will be the first to suffer if the situation in Lebanon continues to deteriorate. Prime Minister Hassan Diab also has the responsibility of rectifying relations with these countries after they lost their trust in Lebanon in wake of the damaging policies adopted by former Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil. The PM will also be tasked with reining in “hot-headed” ministers should they continue in blindly following Bassil, who acted as if Lebanon was part of the Iran-Syria “resistance axis".

Lebanon: What Distinguishes Today
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January 27/2020
As soon as information about the new ministers of Hassan Diab’s government started to leak, a Facebook friend commented asking: ”would it be shameful to ask for the return of the previous government?” This comment is made even bitterer by the fact that this previous government had been brought down by the revolution, and that this was one of its first big achievements. This is not to say that we are destined for one of these two lousy possibilities, but to say that the current political configuration can no longer provide something better. They have no more tricks up their sleeve. However, the current government, which is being offered as a body that will salvage the nation, remains the worst of the worst.
The following have been ascribed to some of the new ministers: theft of public land by the sea, theft of artifacts, strongly representing the banking sector, smuggling diesel, lacking merits and having merits but those that are irrelevant to their post. The only positive aspect is that 6 of the ministers are women, but the women’s traits have turned their appointment into something negative on balance, which damages not only the government, but the noble demand itself as well.
Politically, the fact that this is “March 8’s government” is more important than anything else. It has been described as “Hezbollah’s government” and the political manner in which it chose to respond to Soleimani’s murder. It has also been reported that former Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil and Deputy and former General Director of General Security Jamil al-Sayed were its actual operational engineers. Mohammed Fehmi the new Interior Minister is very close to Sayed. Thus, as many have concluded, it resembles the governments that had been formed to confront Hariri during Lahoud’s era…
Before this, it was remarkable that the March 8 coalition did not manage to form this government, its own, easily. The process was problematized by a complex multifaceted struggle over shares and power-sharing, which the rejection of which is among the pillars of the revolution.
Here, we arrive at the central difference between the 1998-2005 period and today: the weakness of the leadership’s grip, which harnesses the contradictions and interests of it junior followers. This weakness expanded their “minor differences” and shares, giving them what had not been theirs in the previous era.
This is a list of some of the changes:
First of all, the top command of the “axis of resistance” in Tehran was powerful and rich at the time. This is no longer the case. Second, the same could be said about the second center in command in Damascus, which had a direct presence in Beirut before 2005, while it now requires unlimited regional and international aid to end its ongoing war. Third, both of the mentioned centers of command had a degree of harmony with the other regional powers, and this relative harmony provided a de facto acceptance of their influence. The opposite is true today, and curbing Iranian influence in Lebanon (and Iraq) has become a broadly supported demand. Fourth, while Hezbollah remains very powerful, it is financially poorer than it was. In addition, it is harder for it and more disorienting to confront some of the members of its own sect and nation, than to fight its familiar battles. Fifth, even the presidency is not the same: when Emile Lahoud, who lacked any popular support within his sect or nation, was president, authorization, and allegiance to big brother was total and absolute, and big brother's confidence in him was also total and absolute. He was “in his pocket”. With Michel Aoun, authorization and allegiance remain in effect, of course, but Aoun is less trusted than his predecessor. Because of his popular base, as well as his political formation and past, there is continuous doubt over the persistence of his loyalty if the adequate conditions were to encourage him to "take a detour". It is true that this is hypothetical until further notice, but the "axis of resistance" does not disregard such hated hypotheticals. Finally, we reach the premiership: with Omar Karami and Salim al-Hoss there was some kind of traditional cover. There is also the fact that it was generally accepted that al-Hoss was a man of integrity. With Hassan Diab, the process resembles manufacturing something from scratch. It will be his allies' duty to give him the qualities and meanings of which they do not have much. In any case, the March 8 coalition will rule Lebanon today as it catches its breath. The popular revolution and its demands will multiply its sense of helplessness. The so-called "international community" will, through their expected repudiation of them, do the same. The financial and economic results will likely be disastrous.
So, we are in the midst of the decay of March 8 from a position of power and March 14 coalition's corresponding decay from the position of opposition. The "program" of this decay is marching in the same place, accompanied by an increase in repression that replaces the misery of politics. The period 1998-2005 ended with a major crime that led to a major split. Today, the emergence of those who are inspired by North Korea as a model for salvation is not far-fetched.

Where Failure Is More Dangerous Than Coronavirus
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/January 27/2020
If we wanted to abide by the old dictionary of totalitarian regimes, the outbreak of the Coronavirus would have been included in the category of state secrets and any talk or information about it would have been forbidden.
But we live in a world where such behavior is no longer possible. The world is interconnected and intertwined. Social media has made the cosmic village “secret-less.”China could have handed over this problem to a health department; or even tried to belittle its seriousness. But the Red Dragon chose to deal with the issue in a country-like manner, with responsibility towards its citizens and the world as well. Thus, the Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee was called to an urgent meeting chaired by the party’s Secretary-General Xi Jinping, although the number of deaths had not yet exceeded a dozen. The president himself contributed to giving the problem its true dimensions. He warned that the country was facing a “dangerous situation” due to the rapid spread of the viral pneumonia epidemic.
At the same time, he stressed that China can “win the battle.” Therefore, all the State’s capabilities, including scientific laboratories, have been mobilized to learn more about the nature of the virus and find the appropriate vaccine.
This issue would have been a catastrophe for China’s image had the country chosen to conceal it. But the Chinese president, who heads the second world’s greatest economy, realized that his country should act wisely for the sake of its citizens and the world. It is true that measures taken to prevent the spread of the virus have high economic prices. But nothing can be compared to the repercussions of silence. Imagine the reaction of the citizens, and the world, if they found out that China has failed to meet its responsibilities. Beijing treated the epidemic as its first enemy and chose to deal with transparency in a matter of concern and panic.
In parallel with the outbreak of the Coronavirus, the Arab journalist was following up on three thorny files: the escalating crisis in Iraq, Libyan developments in the wake of the Berlin conference, and popular protests in Lebanon. In the three files, the journalist found no reason to think about the presence of a state of institutions. Iraq’s political class dealt with protests calling for fighting corruption and establishing a full-fledged nation as a kind of pandemic.
Instead of listening to the pain of the Iraqis and deducing conclusions, the authorities denied the depth of the crisis and thought that stifling the protests could end the problem. The Chinese authorities started to act after the death of a number of people. But the decision-makers in Iraq did not find a way to deal with the death of more than five hundred protesters other than the approach that leads to more casualties.
The killing of Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in Baghdad by the US forces added a very serious complication to the already existing obstacles. The US operation and the Iranian response to it added fuel to the fire, due to the state’s fragmentation. The Iraqis found themselves prisoners of a so-called “Iraqi scene”. Recent events have revealed that the political process that followed the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime, at the hands of the Americans, did not result in the establishment of a natural state with natural institutions capable of facing problems and dangers.
Diseases of quotas and corruption took over constitutional texts and left the country at the mercy of the factions and the policies of interference. It is clear that Saddam Hussein’s policies plunged the country into a deep tragedy and that the mistakes of the US occupation compounded the problems of Iraq. But it is also obvious that Iraqi political and party forces have failed to establish the features of a normal country.
After the fall of Saddam, Iraq witnessed a wave of looting that exceeded that of Russia after the suicide of the Soviet Union. The new authority failed to draw lessons from harsh experiments that demonstrated the fragility of the new institutions, which was starkly confirmed by the scandal of Mosul’s fall in the hands of ISIS. Here is Iraq, living under the weight of great turmoil and factional bickering. Neither firing rockets at the US embassy nor burning the tents of the protesters provides a solution. The Libyan despot left no institutions to build on. But the Libyans themselves missed the opportunity to shape a normal country that would help them compensate for four lost decades. Internal failures deepened, while the thirst for Libya’s oil amplified foreign interferences. Despite the wide international presence at the “Berlin Clinic”, there are some who fear that the inability of the Libyans to sit under one roof and to formulate a road map for building the state will prolong the tragedy and exacerbate the dangers for Libya and its neighbors.
The Lebanese failure does not need evidence. The Lebanese people disagree on many things, but they agree that today, in the republic of bankruptcy and collapse, they are subjected to unprecedented humiliation that was never seen in the worst chapters of the war.
A corrupt political class has threatened the pillars of Lebanon’s stability and economy, including the banking sector, and has failed to act in a timely manner to prevent slipping into the current abyss. It is evident that neither the exchange of accusations nor the burning of protesters’ tents provides a solution. We don’t want to depreciate the size of external interventions and the role they play. But the internal forces did neither act with the logic of the state, nor did they demonstrate their wish to build a natural country, where all citizens live under the law. Just a quick reading of the costs of failure in Iraq, Libya, and Lebanon shows that the prevailing virus of failure to build a natural state is more dangerous than the Coronavirus.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 27-28/2020
Iran says preparing site for satellite launch; US deems a cover up
Reuters/Tuesday, 28 January 2020
Iran is preparing a site for launching a satellite, Iran’s Minister of Information and Communications Technology Mohammad Javad Azari-Jahromi tweeted on Monday, highlighting a program the United States says is a cover for ballistic missile development. “Yes, a site is being prepared for placing the Zafar satellite into orbit” Azari-Jahromi tweeted, along with a link to an NPR story which noted that satellite imagery suggested the Islamic Republic is preparing for a space launch. Last summer, Iran showed off an undamaged satellite, days after a rocket exploded on its launch pad in the third failed launch of the year, which US President Donald Trump had tweeted about hours earlier. The United States has warned Iran against rocket launches, fearing the technology used to put satellites into orbit could help it develop the ballistic missile capability needed to launch nuclear warheads, though Tehran denies its activity is a cover for such development.

Iranians should not let Trump harm national unity: Rouhani
Reuters, Dubai/Monday, 27 January 2020
Iranians should not allow US President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” approach to harm national unity ahead of parliamentary elections, President Hassan Rouhani said in speech broadcast live on his official website.
“We should not let Trump succeed in creating gaps between the establishment and people ... We should remain united ... Don’t turn your back on (Feb. 21) elections. Let’s have a high turn out,” he said.
Iran’s hardline Guardians Council, which vets all election candidates, has so far disqualified some 9,000 of the 14,000 who registered to run in the elections. Moderates say in most cities they have no candidates to enter the race.

Report: Rouhani Threatened to Resign after IRGC Covered up Downing of Ukrainian Plane
London - New York/Asharq Al Awsat/January 27/2020
For three days, Iranian military officials knew they had shot down a Ukrainian jetliner while the government issued false statements, denying any responsibility in the January 8 crash, The New York Times reported. Iran had just fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at American forces, the country was on high alert for an American counterattack, and the Iranian military was warning of incoming cruise missiles. The officer tried to reach the command center for authorization to shoot but couldn’t get through. So he fired an antiaircraft missile. Then another. The plane, which turned out to be a Ukrainian jetliner with 176 people on board, crashed and exploded in a ball of fire. President Hassan Rouhani’s government was publicly denying that the plane had been shot down because Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) were covering it up. When they finally told him, he gave them an ultimatum: come clean or he would resign, The New York Times said. Only then, 72 hours after the plane crashed, did Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, step in and order the government to acknowledge its fatal mistake, the newspaper’s report said. Iran said last week that it had asked the US and French authorities for equipment to download information from the black boxes on the downed airliner, potentially angering countries which want the recorders analyzed abroad. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada, which lost 57 of its citizens, said Iran did not have the ability to read the data and he demanded the cockpit and flight recorders should be sent to France. Ukraine has urged Iran to return the black boxes from the US-built Boeing 737 flown by Ukraine International Airlines. Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said returning the boxes would show that Iran was committed to an unbiased investigation of the tragedy. “If the appropriate supplies and equipment are provided, the information can be taken out and reconstructed in a short period of time,” Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization said in its second preliminary report on the disaster released last Monday. A list of equipment Iran needs has been sent to French accident agency BEA and the US National Transportation Safety Board, Reuters quoted the Iranian aviation body as saying.

Iranian Plane Skids into Highway
Asharq Al Awsat/January 27/2020
A Caspian Airlines plane carrying some 150 passengers slid off the runway onto a highway on landing at an airport in southwestern Iran on Monday, but all those on board were evacuated without injury, Iranian state media reported. The Caspian Airlines Boeing Flight No. 6936 had left Tehran for Mahshahr early Monday morning. It ran out of runway when landing at Mahshahr airport with no casualties, state news agency IRNA reported. IRNA, quoting local aviation officials, said a technical issue delayed the plane's landing which caused the accident. "The plane did not catch fire and all passengers safely left the plane," managing Director of Khuzestan Airports Mohammad Reza Rezaei told IRNA. Iranian reports identified the plane only as a McDonnell Douglas without being more specific, but Caspian has only the McDonnell Douglas MD-83s in its fleet. On Saturday, an Iranian airplane en route from Tehran to Istanbul made an emergency landing at a Tehran airport because of a technical problem, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported. Iran's airlines have been plagued by crashes, which Iranian rulers blame on US sanctions that block the airlines from replacing their aging fleets or purchasing spare parts from the West.
Monday’s incident comes as Iran is still coping with the aftermath of the accidental downing of a Ukrainian airliner over Tehran. The plane was shot down by the Revolutionary Guard earlier this month amid heightened tensions with the United States, killing all 176 people aboard.

Magnitude 5.4 earthquake hits southern Iran
Reuters/Monday, 27 January 2020
A magnitude 5.4 earthquake struck Fars province in southern Iran on Monday, Iranian state TV reported. State TV did not report any information on possible damage or casualties from the quake, which hit near the town of Khane Zenian. Assessment teams have been dispatched to the quake site, which is not a very populous area, the head of rescue for Iran’s Red Crescent, Morteza Salimi, told state TV. Posts on social media said that the earthquake had been felt by residents of the provincial capital Shiraz, approximately 50 km (30 miles) away from the epicenter of the quake.
On Friday, a magnitude 6.8 quake hit eastern Turkey, with its epicenter in the small lakeside town of Sivrice in Elazig province.

Trump says to release Middle East peace plan on Tuesday
Al Arabiya English/Monday, 27 January 2020
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the White House would release his long-delayed Middle East peace plan at noon (1700 GMT) on Tuesday.Trump made the remark to reporters as he greeted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. “So tomorrow at 12 o’clock, we’ll be announcing a plan. And it’s a very big plan, it will be a suggestion between Israel and the Palestinians, it’s the closest it’s ever come and we’ll see what happens. We have the support of the prime minister, we have the support of the other parties, and we think we will ultimately have the support of the Palestinians, but we’re going to see,” Trump said. “I think it might have a chance,” he said alongside visiting Netanyahu. Trump predicted that the Palestinians would “ultimately” come round to giving their support. Israeli prime minister said that Trump’s Middle East peace plan “may be the opportunity of a century.”On Sunday, Palestinian officials threatened to withdraw from key provisions of the Oslo Accords, which define relations with Israel, if US President Donald Trump announces his Middle East peace plan next week. Chief Palestinian negotiation Saeb Erekat told AFP that the Palestinian Liberation Organization reserved the right “to withdraw from the interim agreement,” the concrete part of the Oslo deal, if Trump unveils his plan.Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh said on Sunday that the Middle East peace plan US President Donald Trump is expected to unveil next week “will not pass” and could lead to renewed Palestinian violence.(With Reuters, AFP)

Trump Meets Netanyahu, Insists U.S. Peace Plan Has a 'Chance'
Naharnet/January 27/2020
President Donald Trump said alongside visiting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday that his Israeli-Palestinian peace plan has a "chance" -- despite being flatly rejected by the Palestinians. Trump, who is also meeting with Netanyahu's election rival Benny Gantz later Monday, said the plan would be unveiled at 12:00 pm (1700 GMT) Tuesday. Palestinians have already panned the White House peace plan, saying it is overwhelmingly biased toward Israel. No Palestinian leaders were invited to the White House. But Trump told reporters that "it might have a chance" and that "we're relatively close."
"We think we will have ultimately the support of the Palestinians," he said. The plan is "something they should want... It's very good for them, in fact it's overly good for them."Trump also said that "many of the Arab nations" back his initiative. Netanyahu praised Trump as "the greatest friend that Israel's had in the White House" and once more described the peace plan as "the deal of the century."The twin White House meetings with Netanyahu and Gantz thrust Trump right into Israel's tense election scheduled in just over a month. Netanyahu's right-wing Likud and Gantz's centrist Blue and White party are polling neck-and-neck. The peace plan roll-out also gives Trump a welcome distraction from his impeachment trial in the Senate, while boosting Netanyahu's standing as he fights corruption charges back home.
No deal
The Palestinians say they were never included in crafting the plan, which was overseen by Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner. Palestinian prime minister Mohammed Shtayyeh on Monday urged international powers to boycott the plan, which he said was designed "to protect Trump from impeachment and protect Netanyahu from prison.""It is not a Middle East peace plan," Shtayyeh told a cabinet meeting. "This plan gives Israel sovereignty over Palestinian territory."The plan, whose details remain unclear, has been gestating in secret for so long that skeptics asked whether it even really existed. Aaron David Miller, a Mideast expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Kushner's team wants to "finally, basically demonstrate that they have a plan" -- and to do so ahead of the U.S. presidential election. In the short term, said Dennis Ross, a U.S. diplomat who worked on the issue under several administrations, "anything that can divert attention away from what's going on" is the goal.
'Make history'
Trump has already thrown Netanyahu a string of political presents.
These include breaking with international diplomatic consensus to recognize the disputed city of Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which were seized from neighboring Syria, and ending opposition to Israeli settlements on occupied Palestinian land. Last Thursday, Trump described the still-unpublished peace plan as "great" and said it "really would work."Netanyahu said before leaving for Washington that he was "full of hope that we can make history." Gantz is also enthusiastic, saying the plan will "go down in history," allowing "different players in the Middle East to finally move ahead towards an historic regional agreement."But on Sunday, Palestinian leaders warned that instead of bringing peace, the plan could trigger their withdrawal from key provisions of the decades-old Oslo Accords, which sought to map out peaceful Israeli-Palestinian relations.
"The U.S. administration will not find a single Palestinian who supports this project," the Palestinian foreign ministry said in a statement on Sunday. "Trump's plan is the plot of the century to liquidate the Palestinian cause."Netanyahu is campaigning on a continuation of his hardline policies that he says are needed to provide security for Israelis, but that critics say condemn Palestinians in the occupied territories to an increasingly bleak future. Adding to the prime minister's worries, the transnational jihadist Islamic State group on Monday reportedly vowed to make Israel its main target. According to a purported audio message of its spokesman, IS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Quraishi is encouraging the group's fighters to "launch a new phase," with major operations against Israel.

Israel’s Gantz praises Trump peace plan, pledges to implement it after poll
Reuters, Washington/Tuesday, 28 January 2020
Israeli centrist party leader Benny Gantz on Monday praised US President Donald Trump for drafting a Middle East peace deal and committed to help implementing it after Israel’s March election. “The President’s peace plan is a significant and historic milestone, indeed,” Gantz told reporters after his meeting with Trump.“Immediately after the elections, I will work toward implementing it from within a stable functioning Israeli government, in tandem with the other countries in our region.”

King Abdullah prepared to reject Trump's 'Deal of the Century' if it penalises Jordan
The New Arab/Monday, 27 January, 2020
Jordan's King Abdullah has publicly slammed President Donald Trump's proposed "Deal of the Century", media reported this week, a US Middle East peace initiative that is expected to heavily favour Israel over the Palestinians. King Abdullah was touring southern Jordan on Sunday when he was asked about the deal, due to be unveiled to Israeli leaders during a visit to Washington this week. The Jordan monarch stated he would reject the deal if it impinges on the kingdom's interests. "Our position is perfectly well-known. We will not agree to proposals that come at our expense," he said, according to Israeli media. "Our position on the Palestinian cause is clear, and the word 'no' is very clear to everyone." Jordan's monarchy has custodianship of the holy sites in Jerusalem, while Amman has accused Israel of a series of provocations at the Al-Aqsa mosque compound.
Israeli leaders have also pledged to annex the Jordan Valley, a move that would again anger Amman.
A majority of Jordanians are of Palestinian descent, making the peace deal highly controversial in the kingdom with most viewing the process to be biased towards Israel. All sides of the Palestinian political divide have also rejected the proposed deal, including the Palestinian Authority which has political ties to Israel. Hamas, which doesn't and controls the Gaza Strip, has also completely rejected the Trump process and warned it could lead to an upsurge in violence. Palestinian Chief negotiator Saeb Erekat told AFP that the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) reserved the right "to withdraw from the interim agreement" of the Oslo peace agreement between Israel and Ramallah, if Trump unveils his plan. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Benny Gantz will arrive in Washington on Tuesday, when Trump will unveil the peace plan. Netanyahu has welcomed the "historic" deal, although the Palestinian side are expected to reject it. "An opportunity such as this comes once in history and cannot be missed... I am full of hope that we are on the verge of a historic moment in the annals of our state," Netanyahu said.

Palestinians Hint at Dissolving PA in Response to US Peace Plan
Ramallah - Gaza - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 27 January, 2020
A spokesman for the Palestinian Presidency hinted at the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority, in response to the upcoming US announcement of its peace plan, known as the “Deal of the Century.”Nabil Abu Rudainah told the official Palestinian radio on Sunday that the Palestinian leadership would hold internal meetings at all levels to discuss the situation when US President Donald Trump’s Middle East peace plan is announced.He added that all options, including the fate and future of the Palestinian Authority, would be discussed, provided that any decision in this regard would enjoy Arab and international support. Member of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization Ahmed Majdalani stated that the Palestinians would reject any plan that would exclude the establishment of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. In a statement published by the German news agency, Majdalani noted that the upcoming announcement of the peace plan had a political goal, which is “serving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the elections scheduled for next March.” The Palestinian official called on the international community and Arab states to “adhere to the resolutions of international legitimacy.” Meanwhile, the head of Hamas political bureau Ismail Haniyeh, announced on Sunday his willingness to meet urgently with Fatah movement to discuss ways to “confront” the US peace plan.“We are ready for an urgent meeting with the brothers in the Fatah movement and all the factions in Cairo to draw our path and decide on the coming steps,” Haniyeh said.

US calls on Iraq to protect Baghdad embassy after rocket attack
AFP, Washington/Monday, 27 January 2020
The United States called on Iraq on Sunday to protect American diplomatic facilities after the US embassy in Baghdad was hit by three rockets. “We call on the Government of Iraq to fulfill its obligations to protect our diplomatic facilities,” a State Department spokesperson said in a statement.
The attack marked a dangerous escalation in a spree of rocket attacks in recent months that have targeted the embassy or Iraqi military bases where American troops are deployed. None of the attacks has been claimed, but Washington has repeatedly blamed Iran-backed military factions in Iraq.
On Sunday, one rocket hit an embassy cafeteria at dinner time while two others landed nearby, a security source told AFP. “Since September there have been over 14 attacks by Iran and Iranian-supported militias on US personnel in Iraq,” the State Department spokesperson said.
“The security situation remains tense and Iranian-backed armed groups remain a threat. So, we remain vigilant.”

Three French nationals missing in Iraq: French FM Le Drian
Reuters/Monday, 27 January 2020
The French government is aware that three French nationals are missing in Iraq, but has no new information on the case, said Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on Monday.Iraq is gripped in crisis as anti-government protests enter their fourth month. On Monday morning the US Embassy was hit by a rocket attack.

Diplomats in Iraq condemn excessive violence, urge credible probe into deaths
Reuters, Baghdad/Monday, 27 January 2020
Envoys of 16 countries in Iraq, including, France, Britain and the United States, on Monday condemned the use of excessive violence by Iraqi security forces and armed groups and called for a credible investigation into hundreds of deaths since October.
“Despite assurances by the government, security forces and armed groups continue to use live fire in these locations, resulting in multiple deaths and injuries of civilians, while some protestor face intimidation and abduction,” the joint statement said, referring to the cities of Baghdad, Nassiriya and Basra. The ambassadors called on Iraq to respect freedoms of assembly and right to protest peacefully and urged the Baghdad government to “guarantee credible investigations and accountability for the over 500 deaths and thousands of injuries of protesters since Oct. 1.”Baghdad is in the throes of mass anti-government protests. On Sunday, Populist Iraqi cleric Moqtaqa al-Sadr called off demonstrations against the US embassy “to avoid internal strife,” his office said. In a related development, the United States called on Iraq on Sunday to protect American diplomatic facilities after the US embassy in Baghdad was hit by three rockets.

Iraq PM in call with Pompeo stresses need for de-escalation
Al Arabiya English/Monday, 27 January 2020
Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi in a phone call with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stressed the importance of de-escalation in the region. Abdul Mahdi received the call from the US Secretary of State on Monday, the prime minister’s Media Office posted on Facebook. According to the US State Department, Pompeo expressed outrage at the continued assaults by Iran's armed groups targeting US facilities in Iraq, including Sunday’s rocket attack against the US Embassy, the State Department said. “The Secretary underlined once again that these attacks demonstrate a wanton disregard for Iraqi sovereignty and a failure to rein in these dangerous armed groups,” State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a statement. The Iraqi Prime Minister agreed on strengthening the Iraqi forces responsible for protecting the embassy situated in Baghdad’s Green Zone. They also agreed on following up on investigations and procedures to prevent attacks on diplomatic missions in the future and bringing the perpetrators of the attcks to justice. Abdul Mahdi stressed the importance of calm in the region, respect for all of Iraq’s sovereignty and decisions, and non-interference in its internal affairs. According to the prime minister’s Media Office, Pompeo confirmed the US readiness to hold serious discussions on the presence of foreign forces in Iraq and to cooperate to achieve Iraqi sovereignty.

Salih Resumes Consultations on Iraqi Government Formation
Baghdad - Hamza Mustafa/Asharq Al Awsat/January 27/2020
Iraqi President Barham Salih has resumed consultations on the formation of a new government after returning from his visit to Davos and the Vatican. Salih met with head of the National Wisdom Movement Ammar al-Hakim, the presidency said on Sunday. According to the statement, both figures discussed the latest security and political developments in Iraq and emphasized the necessity of accelerating the formation of the new cabinet. Iraq’s parliament voted in December to accept the resignation of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi after weeks of violent anti-government protests that have rocked the country. Salih and Hakim said Sunday a swift cabinet formation would contribute to achieving the aspirations of the Iraqi people and meeting their legitimate demands for reforms. “Iraq’s sovereignty, stability and security shall be preserved by all parties,” they stressed, while calling for distancing the country from regional and international conflicts. Salih is expected to inform Abdul Mahdi and Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi about the results of his visit, especially his controversial meeting with US President Donald Trump in Davos. Political parties and armed factions reject the US presence in Iraq and have threatened to expel Salih upon his return if he meets Trump. Salih has continuously reiterated the importance of preserving Iraq’s sovereignty, especially after the unprecedented support he received from Sadrist Movement leader Muqtada al-Sadr, who rushed to defend him despite his meeting with Trump. The controversy on the US military presence in Iraq comes as the government formation enters a critical stage. “An influential political alliance is planning to nominate a weak and unacceptable figure (for the premiership) so that his government does not win parliament's vote of confidence,” tweeted former Deputy Prime Minister Bahaa al-Araji. Head of the Bayariq al-Khair parliamentary bloc Mohammad al-Khalidi warned of Salih coming under pressure over his procrastination on naming a new PM. “There’s pressure not to accept Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi for the premiership because he did not yield to the dictates of political blocs,” Khalidi told Asharq Al-Awsat. He stressed that demonstrators also want Allawi to win the post.

Washington Urges South Sudan to Form Transitional Government on Time
London - Mustafa Seri/Asharq Al Awsat/January 27/2020
The United States has urged parties to the South Sudan conflict to swiftly resolve outstanding issues and form a Transitional National Unity Government as scheduled in February. US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy has held talks with South Sudan's President Salva Kiir, opposition leader Riek Machar and a number of officials in Juba. He called on all parties to form the Transitional National Unity Government on Feb. 12 and stressed Washington’s rejection of a proposal submitted by South Africa’s deputy president David Mabuza, who is leading the mediation, to resolve the problem on the number of states and their boundaries through arbitration after 90 days. The armed opposition rejected participating in the government before the outstanding issues on security arrangements and the number of states and borders are resolved. Kiir and Machar have earlier agreed to extend the period to form the transitional government from Nov. 12 until Feb. 12. They both signed, along with a number of opposition factions, a peace agreement in September 2018 to end the five-year civil war, which killed hundreds of thousands and displaced more than two million. Meanwhile, the UN mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) said it is willing to deploy more troops in Juba and troubled areas in the country but asked for a collective agreement. On Jan. 17, head of the SPLM-IO Defense Committee Angelina Teny proposed to deploy UN forces in the capital and troubled areas such as Yei and Juba-Nimule route. In response to this request, the head of UNMISS, David Shearer, told reporters on Thursday that the peacekeeping mission is ready to deploy more troops during the roll-out of the newly trained unified forces. The United Nations now has the capacity to increase its presence to support disarmament and confidence-building, Shearer said. “But, any change in our deployment should come as a request agreed by all the parties,” he added, noting that their role remains supportive to the South Sudanese forces. “Maintaining security and law enforcement will always remain the government’s core responsibility. The UN cannot and will not play that role,” he stressed.

Canadian Statement on International Holocaust Remembrance Day
January 27, 2020 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement to mark International Holocaust Remembrance Day:
“On this 75th anniversary of the liberation of the Nazi Concentration and Extermination Camp of Auschwitz-Birkenau, we remember the more than six million Jewish men, women and children brutally murdered by the Nazi regime and its collaborators in the Shoah. We also honour the countless Romani, LGBTQ2 individuals, persons with disabilities and political dissidents who were killed as well as those who stood against the horrors of the Nazi atrocities.
“The Holocaust is a horrific reminder of what can happen when sovereign acts of discrimination and intolerance go undenounced. What began with inflammatory rhetoric to dehumanize and degrade the Jews of Europe evolved into the systematic and deliberate revocation of rights, theft of property, incarceration, and ultimately, mass extermination.
“As the years following the Holocaust grow, and the voices of survivors are fewer, it is vital that we work together to ensure that future generations of Canadians learn about this dark chapter so it is never forgotten. This is why Canada will continue to denounce those who use antisemitic language or engage in antisemitic behaviour, and condemn attacks on human rights. We also firmly reject any denial of the Holocaust and stand on guard against historical amnesia.
“In 2019, Canada adopted the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance definition of antisemitism. Last week, Canada supported the adoption of the 2020 International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance Ministerial Declaration in which we, and all members of the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance, recommitted to the principles of the Declaration of the Stockholm International Forum on the Holocaust.
“Seven decades after the liberation of Auschwitz-Birkenau, Canada solemnly stands with all those who stand for justice and human rights to say with one voice: Never again.”

Bin Alawi Meets Zarif for 4th Time this Month
Dammam - Merza al-Khuwaldi/Asharq Al Awsat/January 27/2020
Omani Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah traveled on Sunday to Tehran for the third time this month to hold talks with his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that during their meeting, the two sides reaffirmed the Iranian and Omani governments’ determination to cooperate and continue consultations to ensure the safety of navigation and the security of energy supplies. “Zarif and bin Alawi discussed bilateral cooperation regarding the Strait of Hormuz and emphasized their governments' will to guarantee maritime and energy security for all," the ministry said in a statement. The two foreign ministers also called on all sides to play a positive role in that process, it added. The Strait of Hormuz, which links the Middle East to Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and beyond, is a strategic route for world oil suppliers. The Omani news agency said Sunday that the two sides discussed bilateral and regional issues in addition to cooperation and consultation to serve the common interests of the two countries. Bin Alawi stopped in the Iranian capital on Sunday on his way back from the Swiss town of Davos. This is the fourth time the two diplomats meet this month and the third time bin Alawi travels to Iran where he is mediating between Tehran and Washington. He was in Tehran on Jan. 21 and had also traveled to the country on January 7 to attend the Tehran dialogue forum’s 23rd Gulf international conference. The two men also met two weeks ago in Muscat during the Iranian Foreign Minister’s short trip to the country, which was aimed at meeting with Canadian FM Francois-Philippe Champagne. In the past 40 years, Oman seeks to play a mediatory role in calming tensions between Tehran and Washington. The conflict between Iran and the US escalated after a direct order by President Donald Trump to kill top Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani near Baghdad’s international airport on January 3. After the assassination, Iran retaliated by firing dozens of ballistic at a major US military airbase in western Iraq.

Experts: Coronavirus Can't be Transmitted via Mail, Imported Items
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 27/2020
It has not been shown that the new coronavirus spreading in China and other parts of the world can be transferred through items bought online from China, media reports said. “There is no evidence this is a risk… Cold viruses tend to survive less than 24 hours outside the human body,” the BBC has reported. “The most reassuring fact so far is that cases seem to require close contact with another person -- say, a family member or healthcare worker -- in order to spread,” the BBC added. Messages warning people against buying items online from China had been circulated by Lebanese social media users in recent days. Health Minister Hamad Hasan has reassured the public that the virus has not reached Lebanon. The virus has claimed 82 lives since emerging in a market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan and spread around the world. So far the affected countries beside China are Australia, Cambodia, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Canada, the United States and France. The Chinese government has sealed off Wuhan and neighboring cities, effectively trapping tens of millions of people -- including thousands of foreigners -- to contain the coronavirus.

World Grieves for NBA Legend Kobe Bryant after Helicopter Crash
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 27/2020
Basketball legend Kobe Bryant's death in a helicopter crash along with his teenage daughter sparked an outpouring of grief across the worlds of sports and entertainment on Monday. Bryant, 41, was traveling Sunday with his 13-year-old daughter Gianna and seven other passengers and crew when their helicopter slammed into a rugged hillside in thick fog in Calabasas, west of Los Angeles. There were no survivors. A five-time NBA champion and two-time Olympic gold medalist, Bryant is widely regarded as one of the greatest basketball players in history. He was an iconic figure who became one of the faces of his sport during a glittering two-decade career with the Los Angeles Lakers. All-time basketball great Michael Jordan said Bryant was "like a little brother" to him. "Words can't describe the pain I'm feeling," the former Chicago Bulls star said. "We used to talk often and I will miss those conversations very much."
Dozens of firefighters and paramedics battled across hilly terrain to reach the flaming wreckage of the Sikorsky S-76 but found no survivors, officials said. Fans and mourners descended on the area but police warned people to stay away. "As you can imagine, it's a logistical nightmare in a sense because the crash site itself is not easily accessible," Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva told reporters. The National Transportation Safety Board said an 18-strong team of investigators would be sent to California to probe the crash.
Worldwide tributes
Tributes to Bryant flooded in from former US presidents, pop stars and athletes from different sports, a sign of how the man known as the "Black Mamba" had transcended basketball. "Kobe was a legend on the court and just getting started in what would have been just as meaningful a second act," Barack Obama tweeted."Laker Nation, the game of basketball & our city, will never be the same without Kobe," former Los Angeles Lakers star Magic Johnson tweeted. American football star Tom Brady wrote simply: "We miss you already Kobe."At the Australian Open, Australian tennis player Nick Kyrgios wore a Lakers jersey before he took on Rafael Nadal. Nineteen-time Grand Slam champion Nadal put on a Lakers cap after his win and called Bryant "one of the greatest sportsmen in history". Spanish football giants Real Madrid held a minute's silence ahead of Monday's training session, with club captain Sergio Ramos pictured in the No.10 shirt Bryant wore with the US national team. At the Staples Center in Los Angeles, crowds of shocked fans gathered to pay tribute as the venue, which witnessed many of Bryant's career highlights, hosted the music industry's Grammy Awards.
Hundreds, many wearing purple and gold Lakers shirts, placed flowers and candles at a makeshift memorial for their hero. "This dude is everything to me man. It makes no sense," said distraught Lakers fan Bobby Jimenez.
Singer Alicia Keys paid a somber tribute at the Grammys.
"To be honest with you, we're all feeling crazy sadness right now," Keys told the audience. "Los Angeles, America and the whole wide world lost a hero. And we're literally standing here heartbroken in the house that Kobe Bryant built."Denver Nuggets fans began chants of "Kobe, Kobe" as a minute's silence was held before Sunday's game against the Houston Rockets. In New York, Madison Square Garden was lit up in purple and gold alongside a giant image of Bryant captioned: "Kobe Bryant, 1978-2020." The crash came only hours after Bryant was passed by current Lakers star LeBron James for third on the all-time NBA scoring list in a Saturday game at Philadelphia. Bryant's final post on social media had been a tweet congratulating James."Continuing to move the game forward @KingJames," Bryant wrote. "Much respect my brother #33644."
Five-time champion
Bryant was a five-time NBA champion in a career that began in 1996 straight out of a high school and lasted until his retirement in 2016. He also was a two-time Olympic gold medalist, helping spark the US squad of NBA stars to titles in 2008 in Beijing and 2012 in London. Bryant bowed out of the NBA in 2016, scoring 60 points in a fairytale farewell appearance at the Staples Center. The son of former NBA player Joe "Jellybean" Bryant, the Lakers legend was born in Philadelphia while his father played for the 76ers. The elder Bryant played from 1984 to 1991 in Italy, giving young Kobe a global worldview as he grew up dreaming of following his dad into the NBA. He would eventually join the ranks of professionals at the age of 17, jumping directly into the NBA, only the sixth player to make such a leap. At 18, Bryant became, at the time, the youngest player or starter in an NBA game and the youngest winner of the NBA Slam Dunk Contest. With Bryant alongside Shaquille O'Neal, the Lakers captured three straight NBA crowns from 2000-2002, returning the team to glory days unseen since 1988. Bryant's career was almost derailed in 2003 when he was arrested in Colorado over a sexual assault complaint filed by a 19-year-old hotel employee where Bryant was staying ahead of knee surgery. Bryant was accused of rape. He admitted to adultery but said he did not commit rape. The case was dropped in 2004 after the accuser refused to testify in a trial. A separate civil suit was settled under terms kept private.
After his playing career, Bryant branched out into the entertainment industry. In 2018, he won an Oscar for his animated short film "Dear Basketball", a love letter to the sport which brought him fame and fortune.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 26-27/2020
The Ukrainian Plane and a ‘Chernobyl Moment’
Bobby Ghosh/Asharq Al Awsat/January 27/2020
The Islamic Republic’s volte face on the fate of Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752 has tempted Iran-watchers to speculate that the tragedy could be a “Chernobyl moment” for the regime in Tehran. Implicit in this analogy is the hope that the shooting down of the jetliner foreshadows the end of the theocratic state, just as the disaster in the outskirts of Pripyat 33 years ago foreshadowed the end of the Soviet Union.
The temptation to make the comparison is understandable — and not only because the recent award-winning HBO/Sky miniseries has refreshed minds about the nuclear catastrophe and reminded us about how it connects to the meltdown of the Communist empire.
There are some obvious parallels. The sequence of Tehran’s responses to the downing of Flight 752 was similar to that of Moscow’s after the explosion in Chernobyl: denial, crude attempts at a cover-up, exposure by foreign governments, followed by a grudging acknowledgment — and finally an apology, laden with caveats and blame-shifting. There are parallels, too, in the political backdrops to both events: As was the USSR, Iran is isolated, its economy in shambles. The regime has long since cut loose from its ideological moorings; it has little to offer a sullen populace but old bromides about American perfidy. The widespread street protests across Iran showed that Iranians aren’t persuaded by this kind of stale propaganda any more than the citizens of the Soviet Union were in 1986.
Alas, the similarities end there. There is no Mikhail Gorbachev in Tehran to recognize the hollowness of the regime and tap popular discontent to unleash the political reforms that would, three years after Chernobyl, close the Soviet era. Hopes that President Hassan Rouhani would be “Iran’s Gorbachev” were always hopelessly misplaced, not least because he has no real power.
The man who does, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is as far removed from Gorbachev as it is possible to imagine in modern times. Instead, he is fully devoted to preserving his office, and the theocratic underpinnings of the Islamic Republic. He has no qualms about slaughtering hundreds of Iranians — and hundreds of thousands of Arabs in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen — to safeguard these ends.
He also enjoys the unshaking loyalty of the Revolutionary Guards Corps and Basij irregulars within Iran, and a network of terrorist groups and proxy militias throughout the Middle East. Might the tragedy of Flight 752 soften the hearts of those who kill and maim at Khamenei’s pleasure? Chance would be a fine thing. But the resumption of anti-regime protests suggests that thousands of fearless Iranians are willing to take that chance — the bravest of them have taken to the streets with no expectation of any softening. I have not yet seen or heard, in the many videos from the protests that are circulating on social-media platforms, any reference to Chernobyl. Adept at circumventing the regime’s digital blocks against Western TV programming, many Iranians have doubtless seen the TV series. Ironically, one of Rouhani’s advisers is an avid fan.
In truth, Iranians don’t need far-flung foreign comparisons: Their own history is replete with episodes analogous to their current state of affairs. At least one comes close, in immediate impact, to the Flight 752 downing, and perhaps eventually in augury.
On the night of Aug. 18, 1978, a fire broke out at a cinema in Abadan, close to the border with Iraq. The conflagration claimed anywhere from 420-470 lives, and it was quickly clear that the fire was no accident. The government of the Shah, already feeling the effects of widespread popular discontent, blamed Marxist terrorists. The opposition, led by the exiled Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, blamed the Shah’s much-feared intelligence agency. The movie being screened, “The Deer,” was a thinly-veiled critique of the economic distress felt by most Iranians, and the widespread corruption of the Shah’s government. Years would pass before the truth of the burning of Cinema Rex came to light: The arsonists had been Khomeini loyalists, inspired by the cleric’s contempt for cinema as an instrument of Western decadence.

Palestinian Elections: How Abbas and Europe Are Trying to Blame Israel
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/January 27/2020
The last time there were Palestinian elections, Hamas won in a landslide. Even if Israel does agree to allow Arab residents of Jerusalem to take part in the Palestinian elections, Abbas will undoubtedly find another excuse to continue his policy of foot-dragging.
Abbas and his senior officials in Ramallah have, in fact, turned the PA into a private fiefdom. They have no functioning parliament, no free media, and no open debate. The only people Abbas consults with are his "yes-men" who appear to agree with every word he says. This is how Abbas likes matters, and he obviously sees no reason why Palestinians should waste money and energies on new elections as long as they have him as president for life.
As long as Abbas can use the issue of the elections to denounce Israel, why not do so? His friends in the European Union would be more than happy to join him in skewering Israel for not allowing Palestinian elections (if that turned out to be the case). Many EU representatives are Abbas's useful idiots, gladly parroting his every anti-Israel pronouncement.
The Palestinians have been without a functioning parliament since Hamas's violent takeover of the Gaza Strip in 2007. The parliament building is still standing, dusty and unused, in Ramallah, and Palestinian parliament members have continued receiving salaries although they have been doing nothing.
This month, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas entered the 16th year of his four-year-term in office. Abbas, who was elected to succeed Yasser Arafat in January 2005, has since avoided holding a Palestinian presidential election, each time using a different excuse. While in the past he used to blame his rivals in Hamas for the failure to hold a new election, Abbas is now trying to hold Israel responsible. His attempt seems to be supported by some Europeans.
Abbas's four-year tenure ended in January 2009. Two years earlier, Hamas had violently seized control of the Gaza Strip, by ousting Abbas's Palestinian Authority (PA) regime and throwing some of his loyalists from the top floors of tall buildings.
Back then, Abbas's excuse may have sounded convincing: he and his senior PA officials argued that there was no chance Hamas would allow a free election in the Gaza Strip.
Abbas at first claimed that he was eager to hold the presidential election on time. In October 2009, Abbas announced that he would issue a presidential decree to hold the election before January 25, 2010. After meeting then Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo, Abbas told reporters that the door has not yet been closed to reconciliation between his ruling Fatah faction and Hamas.
Abbas, however, has used his dispute with Hamas to avoid holding an election for the Palestinian parliament -- the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). The last parliamentary election, in 2006, resulted in a huge Hamas victory. When a PLC election was supposed to take place after that, in January 2010, the rivalry between Abbas and Hamas prevented the vote.
The Palestinians have, in fact, been without a functioning parliament since Hamas's violent takeover of the Gaza Strip in 2007. The parliament building is still standing, dusty and unused, in Ramallah, and Palestinian parliament members have continued receiving salaries although they have been doing nothing.
Since 2007, Abbas has been doing his utmost to discredit his rivals in Hamas, whom he has sometimes even accused of working with Israel and the US. Abbas's goal seems to be to depict Hamas leaders as hypocrites, liars and traitors.
In 2009, for instance, Abbas accused Hamas of conducting secret negotiations with Israel through an American mediator, with the goal of establishing a separate Palestinian state in the Hamas-ruled Gaza strip, home to some two million Palestinians.
It was by making that allegation and others against Hamas that Abbas managed to avoid holding presidential and parliamentary elections.
Abbas has since been playing the Hamas card as an excuse not to hold a vote. His message to world leaders and Palestinians who asked him why Palestinians were not being provided with a chance to vote was usually, "Hamas is not interested in any election. Hamas is conspiring with the Israelis and Americans against me and the Palestinian people. Hamas wants to have its own state in the Gaza Strip."
In September 2019, during a speech before the United Nations General Assembly, Abbas finally announced his intention to hold long overdue elections for the PA presidency and parliament. Notably, however, Abbas has yet to set a date for the planned elections.
It did not take long for Palestinians to realize that Abbas's announcement was the outcome of pressure from European Union members rather than any interest in seeing Palestinians cast their ballots in a free electoral process. Nor, presumably, did Abbas make his announcement because he felt that the time had come for Palestinians to elect new leaders.
In all likelihood, Abbas was hoping Hamas would reject his call for new elections, thereby giving him a good excuse to circumvent holding new elections and again blaming Hamas for obstructing the vote.
Hamas, nonetheless, surprised Abbas and other Palestinians when it agreed. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh announced in November 2019 that his movement has "positively" responded to Abbas's initiative.
Hamas's agreement to participate in the elections, if and when they take place, seems to have placed Abbas in an embarrassing situation. That problem is probably why he and his top aides in the West Bank have now come up with yet another excuse not to hold elections.
First, Abbas warned that there would be no elections unless Israel allows Arab residents of Jerusalem to participate in the vote.
Later, Abbas came up with a new demand: that Israel allow the elections to take place inside Jerusalem (under Israeli sovereignty) and not in West Bank areas surrounding the city (and which are not under Israeli sovereignty). Although Israel has not yet responded to Abbas's demand, the Palestinian leaders have turned the issue of the participation of the Jerusalem Arab residents into a point of contention. Now, as they tell the story, it is Israel's fault that Abbas does not hold elections.
It is worth noting that the majority of Arabs in Jerusalem, who are permanent residents of Israel, boycotted the previous Palestinian elections in 2005 and 2006 although Israel did not object to their participation. Why? These residents either do not care about the PA or fear that if they voted for a non-Israeli entity, they might lose their rights and privileges in Israel. That is a choice that speaks volumes about Palestinian electoral preferences.
In the past, Abbas weaseled out of elections by pointing the finger of blame at Hamas. Now that Hamas's acceptance of his initiative has sidelined that excuse, he is seeking to shift the blame to Israel.
The fact that Abbas did not even wait for Israel's response concerning the participation of Jerusalem Arabs in the vote demonstrates his continued lack of seriousness about holding elections in the first place. The last time there were Palestinian elections, Hamas won in a landslide. Even if Israel does agree to allow Arab residents of Jerusalem to take part in the Palestinian elections, Abbas will undoubtedly find another excuse to continue his policy of foot-dragging.
If Abbas was serious about elections, he had 16 full years to work towards allowing Palestinians to vote for a new president and parliament members. Abbas, however, has wasted the past 16 years condemning Israel, Hamas and anyone who dares to disagree with his policies.
The Europeans are either naïve or stupid to think that, at the age of 84, Abbas would allow Palestinians to replace him in a free presidential election. Or perhaps the Europeans are seeking to exonerate Abbas by telling the world that it is Israel, and not the PA president, that is hindering the elections.
In 2018, Abbas dissolved the dysfunctional Palestinian parliament and promised to work towards holding new elections although he did nothing to promote them. Palestinian legal experts strongly criticized as "unconstitutional" Abbas's decision to dissolve the parliament and warned that his true intention was not to pave the way for new elections, but to concentrate as much power as possible in his own hands. In other words, the Palestinian legal experts were saying that Abbas had blindsided everyone by acting as though the dissolution of the parliament was designed to advance democracy and free elections.
Abbas and his senior officials in Ramallah have, in fact, turned the PA into a private fiefdom. They have no functioning parliament, no free media, and no open debate. The only people Abbas consults with are his "yes-men" who appear to agree with every word he says. This is how Abbas likes matters, and he obviously sees no reason why Palestinians should waste money and energy on new elections as long as they have him as president for life.
As long as Abbas can use the issue of the elections to denounce Israel, why not do so? His friends in the European Union would be more than happy to join him in skewering Israel for not allowing Palestinian elections (if that turned out to be the case). Many EU representatives are Abbas's useful idiots, gladly parroting his every anti-Israel pronouncement.
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Turkey's 'Truthophobia'
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/January 27/2020
The ways through which the Turkish state silences dissent are typical of the unfree world.
A clear majority of Turks think that their rights are systematically violated and that they are not equal before law. Then half of them keep voting for Erdoğan (and his allies). These two facts point to a third, and unpleasant conclusion: Millions of Turks know that their country is not free and just, but they keep voting for the leader who is responsible for the gross democratic deficit...
This is a bad message to Erdoğan: You will keep winning votes no matter how maliciously you crush dissent. We are with you and your undemocratic rule. The ways through which the Turkish state silences dissent are typical of the unfree world. According to the left-wing Birgün newspaper, 5,223 people stood trial on the charge of "insulting the president" in 2018, with journalists often being singled out. Pictured: A protest in Istanbul against the imprisonment of journalists in Turkey, on January 10, 2016.
In 2014 the government of Turkey's strongman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan banned YouTube and Twitter, fearing that millions of young Turks could otherwise read "dangerous content" on social media. The Constitutional Court declared the bans unconstitutional. In 2017, the Turkish government banned Wikipedia. That ban was removed only recently, after two and a half years. It is not that Wikipedia is a reliable source of information. Banning it altogether is a rogue state behavior. It is not, however, only about Wikipedia: in Turkey, truth, regardless of its source, is feared and often banned.
The World Report 2020, released by the Human Rights Watch, drew a realistic yet gloomy picture of civil liberties in Turkey:
"Executive control and political influence over the judiciary in Turkey has led to courts systematically accepting bogus indictments, detaining and convicting without compelling evidence of criminal activity individuals and groups the Erdoğan government regards as political opponents. Among these are journalists, opposition politicians, and activists and human rights defenders...
"Authorities continue to block websites and order the removal of online content while thousands of people in Turkey face criminal investigations, prosecutions, and convictions for their social media posts. There has been a dramatic rise in the number of prosecutions and convictions on charges of 'insulting the president' since Erdoğan's first election as president in 2014...
"An estimated 119 journalists and media workers at time of writing are in pretrial detention or serving sentences for offenses such as "spreading terrorist propaganda" and 'membership of a terrorist organization.' Hundreds more are on trial though not in prison. Most media, including television, conforms to the Erdoğan presidency's political line."
Hence the nationwide lack of confidence in the judiciary as a constitutional institution, a sad reality that even Erdoğan's government had to admit. Vice President Fuat Oktay said that only 38% of Turks had confidence in judiciary. The problem of trust is probably much worse than portrayed by the vice president. A survey by the Turkish pollsters ORC revealed that only 11.7% of Turks fully trusted the judiciary.
The ways through which the Turkish state silences dissent are typical of the unfree world. According to the findings of the Monitoring and Advocating Media Freedom project, the Erdoğan government resorted to three most frequently used ways to target journalists in 2019:
"Vexatious charges: Journalists were repeatedly charged with 'insulting a public official' or 'insulting the president' under Articles 125 and 299 respectively of the Turkish penal code...
"Physical attacks: Physical attacks on journalists took place throughout 2019... The violence was largely attributed to political divisions, specifically between nationalists and conservatives...
"Internet restrictions: The government continued to obstruct freedom of expression online... On 1 August, a regulation mandating online content providers, including all online news outlets, to obtain a broadcasting license from the radio and television watchdog RTUK, was published..."
(According to the left-wing Birgün newspaper, 5,223 people -- including 128 children -- stood trial on the charge of "insulting the president" in 2018, with journalists often being singled out and the charge being especially damaging.)
Part of the problem is the Turks' notorious indifference to undemocratic practice -- not that they are unaware of the rights violations; it is just that Erdoğan controls most media.
A recent survey released jointly by the Amnesty International's Turkey chapter and Metropoll, a polling company, revealed the bitter truth about Turkish attitudes.
According to the survey 82.3% of Turks believe fundamental rights and liberties are violated in Turkey. In addition, only a third of them think that someone detained by the police is likely a criminal. Worse, only 37.7% of Turks think everyone is equal before the state.
A clear majority of Turks think that their rights are systematically violated and that they are not equal before law. Then half of them keep voting for Erdoğan (and his allies). These two facts point to a third, and unpleasant conclusion: Millions of Turks know that their country is not free and just, but they keep voting for the leader who is responsible for the gross democratic deficit Turkey has undergone over the past 18 years.
This is a bad message to Erdoğan: You will keep winning votes no matter how maliciously you crush dissent. We are with you and your undemocratic rule.
It was another bad year for Turkish democracy. A worse one may be in the offing.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

ISIS Spokesman Dismisses Trump's Declarations Of Annihilating ISIS, Declares War On Israel: 'Oh Soldiers Of The Caliphate Everywhere... Go For The Israeli Settlements And Marketplaces; Turn Them Into Lands For Testing Your Weapons... Attack The Jews And Slaughter Them'
MEMRI/January 27/2020
The following report is now a complimentary offering from MEMRI's Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM).
On January 27, 2020, the Islamic State (ISIS) released a new audio speech by its spokesman Abu Hamzah Al-Qurashi, produced by its media arm Al-Furqan and distributed on social media including Telegram and Hoop.[1] In the 37-minute speech Al-Qurashi delivers a defiant message: ISIS is not only surviving, despite the declarations by consecutive U.S. presidents that it was finished, but it is also expanding its war against its enemies and that war now spans the globe. Notable in the speech was Al-Qurashi's declaration of war on Israel, calling on ISIS extensions in the Sinai and Syria to attack it and urging Muslims to thwart the U.S. peace plan referred to as the "Deal of the Century." Urging ISIS fighters to step up their attacks, he called on Muslims everywhere to "emigrate" and join the ISIS branch nearest them.
Following are the main points from the speech:
"The Infidels Wish To Extinguish The Light Of Allah By Their Continuous Military And Media Campaigns"
Abu Hamzah began: "The infidels wish to put out the light of Allah by their continuous military and media campaign against the monotheists, a total war on all fronts. For this they have mobilized their media channels and the turbans of evil, the scholars of the tyrants and the champions of depravity, in order to hurl the most vile faults and accusations against the Islamic State. They distort its true nature and its creed, and its jihad in defense of the religion and the community...
"We say to America and to its Arab and non-Arab servants: You have been trying to fight the Islamic State since it was limited to Iraq... you repeatedly declared that you finished it off and you are surprised each time to see, after all of your declarations, the continuance of its activity and the attacks of its soldiers..."
The New ISIS Leader "Abu Ibrahim Al-Hashemi Al-Qurashi... Has Taken Upon Himself And Upon The Mujahideen... To Wage War Against The Jews And Regain What They Stole From The Muslims"
He then reviewed the history of ISIS and its predecessor groups, from Abu Mus'ab Al-Zarqawi to the establishment of the Islamic State in Iraq under the leadership of Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi and on to its expansion to Syria and its conquests in Iraq under Al-Baghdadi, the declaration of the caliphate, and the global expansion of the "Islamic State." Throughout his review, he repeatedly emphasized the devotion to Bayt Al-Maqdis, Jerusalem, as a symbol for Palestine in its entirety. He then declared:
"Today we have begun a new stage in our war against you. The eyes of the soldiers of the caliphate everywhere are still turned toward Bayt Al-Maqdis. In the coming days, with Allah's permission, there will be events that will cause you to forget the horrors you have seen during the time of the previous leaders, Abu Mus'ab Al-Zarqawi, Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi, and Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. Our jihad shall continue, with Allah's permission. The honorable, heroic sheikh, the commander of the faithful and the caliph of the Muslims, Abu Ibrahim Al-Hashemi Al-Qurashi has arrived. We pray to Allah that He will torment you, take vengeance upon you and punish you severely.
"He [Abu Ibrahim] has taken upon himself and upon the mujahideen in the rest of the [ISIS] provinces, and upon the Muslims in all countries, a new stage, which is to wage war against the Jews and regain what they stole from the Muslims – which will be returned only by a book that guides [the Quran] and a victorious sword – and the conquest of Bayt Al-Maqdis and the passing on of the banner to Muhammad bin Abdallah, the Mahdi, with Allah's permission."
"Oh Soldiers Of The Caliphate Everywhere... Go For The Israeli Settlements And Marketplaces; Turn Them Into Lands For Testing Your Weapons... Attack The Jews And Slaughter Them"
Calling on ISIS in the Sinai and in Syria to attack Israeli villages with all weapons at their disposal, he said: "Oh soldiers of the caliphate everywhere, especially in beloved Sinai and blessed Syria, go for the Israeli settlements and marketplaces. Turn them into lands for testing your weapons and chemical rockets and other types [of weapons]. To the Muslims in Palestine and all countries: Be a spearhead in the war against the Jews and in thwarting their plans and their 'Deal of the Century.' Pay no heed to the Hamas of apostasy and collaboration and its ilk, the factions of shame, the dogs of Iran and its base, foolish servants. They produce nothing but slogans and condemnations, in the swamps of apostasy and depravity, and offer condolences for the commanders of the Zoroastrians [the Iranians] who tormented the Sunnis, such as the slain Safavid [Iranian] Qassem Soleimani, Allah's curse on him.
"We call upon you to join the soldiers of the caliphate, who are exerting themselves to remove the borders and the obstacles standing between them and fighting the Jews, who are determined, with Allah's permission, to topple the armies and bring down the thrones, formed by the Crusaders to be a protecting force for the Israelites, and incite their brothers everywhere to attack the Jews and slaughter them, inside Palestine and outside Palestine, and kill them wherever they can find them..."
"Oh Tyrants Of America And Worshippers Of The Cross... Are You Not Ashamed To Declare, For The Past 15 Years, That You Have Finished Off" ISIS?
Addressing the governments of the U.S. and its allies, Al-Qurashi dismissed their declarations that they had defeated ISIS: "Oh tyrants of America and worshippers of the Cross: Search for something else in which to rejoice other than your claims of finishing off the Islamic State. We say the dog of the Rum [the Christians], Trump: The two dogs who ruled America before you, Bush and Obama, also claimed and declared that they had finished off the Islamic State, on numerous occasions. Are you not ashamed to declare, for the past 15 years, that you have finished off the monotheists? Your war was once limited to Iraq; now, with Allah's grace, it has spread across the world, to Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Sinai, to Libya and Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, to the Caucasus, to West and Central Africa, to Tunisia and Algeria..."
"If you include in your calculations that you managed to win a battle, and that the mujahideen withdrew from it, know that the entire matter is in the hands of Allah... Allah is merely testing his worshippers, to differentiate those who are sincere in their jihad from the insincere ones...
"Oh fool of the Rum, oh you who showed off your dog in the media and honored him while refraining from mentioned your soldiers and their participation [in the operation]... die in your rage! Your dreams and hopes of finishing off ISIS are nothing but an illusion..."
Turning next to address the ISIS fighters, Al-Qurashi commended them for pledging allegiance to the organization's new leader and encouraged them to step up attacks against ISIS's enemies: "Oh lions of the caliphate and bearers of the banner everywhere, we congratulate you for pledging allegiance to the commander of the faithful and the caliph of the Muslims, the jihad fighter, the sheikh Abu Ibrahim Al-Hashemi Al-Qurashi, may Allah protect him."
He also made a point of congratulating ISIS's media outlets and activists for pledging allegiance to the new leader and for the continuous efforts in face of the campaign against ISIS in waged by the media and establishment Muslim scholars.
ISIS Fighters Must "Double The Activity And Increase The Strikes... Turn The Infidels' Joy Into Funerals, And Lie In Wait For Them Everywhere"
Congratulating the ISIS fighters on their attacks to avenge the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, he urged them to redouble their efforts and attacks: "We order you to double the activity and increase the strikes. Write down the targets, draw up plans and boobytrap the roads, lay down IEDs, and spread out snipers and kill with silencers. Turn the infidels' joy into funerals, and lie in wait for them everywhere..." He urged ISIS fighters everywhere to remain steadfast in these times that are so trying for them, particularly mentioning those in Afghanistan.
ISIS's War Against Iran Is Not Ended
To the "Rafidite" Iran, and by extension the Iraqi government, Al-Qurashi asserted that that ISIS's war against them was not ended, despite their governments' claim of defeating ISIS in Iraq. The conflict in Iraq, he said, had merely entered a new stage, and Iraq's "cannon and planes" would be of no avail in their fight against ISIS. He warned: "Touch your necks and don your shrouds before you go to sleep." He urges them not to be overconfident, saying that the U.S., with whose support the Iraqi militias had previously fought, has begun to "target you and eliminate your defiled commanders" – a reference to the targeted killing of IRGC Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi PMU deputy commander Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis.
Mocking Iran's response to the U.S. strike that killed the two, Al-Qurashi stated: "Your response was nothing more than smashing the glass of the Crusader American embassy in Baghdad, in the manner of your wretched slaves, the apostate Hamas movement, and, like Hizb Al-Lat [a pejorative term for Hizbullah] with the Jews – empty statements and speeches." Ridiculing the Iraqi government's threat to force U.S. troops out of the country as beyond its capabilities, he asked: "Can a lowly, miserable slave like you drive out his Crusader master?" He asserted that the ones truly capable of driving the U.S. out of Iraq are the ISIS fighters, since, he said, they had forced the U.S. to withdraw from Iraq about a decade ago and had "made [the U.S.] army – by Allah's goodness – withdraw from the regions of the Sunnis in their underwear because of their fear of facing them [ISIS fighters]."
The Syrian Democratic Forces Are Doomed
Addressing "the males of the atheist Kurds, America's hunting dogs and slaves," he stated that their success against ISIS was due only to the support provided by the U.S.-led coalition's airstrikes. The Syrian Democratic Forces, he said, would be doomed after the imminent U.S. withdrawal from Syria, and its attempts to reconcile with the Assad regime and obtain the help of its Russian allies would not protect it from ISIS's vengeance. He went on to warn that the local tribes in Syria that had collaborated with government forces by providing information about ISIS operatives would sooner or later face ISIS's vengeance if they did not repent, adding: "We receive the lists of your names from the good people in your areas." ISIS, he promised, would accept the repentance of those who stop collaborating with the government, but those who "repent" and are later "apostatized" will be legitimate targets for retaliation. Al-Qurashi also reassured ISIS prisoners that ISIS had not forgotten them and that the organization would do all in its power to obtain their release. He urged them to stand fast and to accept their fate until that happened.
Muslims Worldwide Must Immigrate To The Nearest ISIS Province And Join A Military Training Camp
Finally, addressing Muslims worldwide, Al-Qurashi urged them to immigrate to the nearest ISIS province and there join one an ISIS military training camp.
In conclusion, he exhorted ISIS fighters to not rely on their own strength and abilities and reminded them that no matter how much great their efforts, success and victory come only with the help of Allah. He also cautioned them against getting involved in strife and internal division.
[1] Telegram, January 27, 2020.

Facing problems at home, Jeff Bezos manufactures Saudi conspiracies
Mohammed Alyahya/Al Arabiya/January 27/2020
The world's richest man has a story to tell you.
The opening page is straightforward enough: a rich businessman grows tired of his marriage and seeks excitement in an extramarital affair. Texts and photos are leaked and the public revelation costs him his marriage and a good chunk of his fortune.
But Jeff Bezos' tale has a twist, albeit one it took him time to get around to telling. According to the 2,000+ word blogpost he wrote last year, it wasn't a wandering eye that caused his problems; it was a vast, international conspiracy, involving foreign leaders, espionage and an American media company's links with the President of the United States.
If that sounds like a far-fetched scenario in the mold of the Amazon Prime series The Man in the High Castle, which offered an alternative history of the Second World War, it should. Both take liberties with the facts.
Take a step backwards and the story looks simple enough.
Who had the means and the motivation to leak intimate photos and texts from the phone of Amazon’s CEO? Occam’s razor is the philosophical idea that the simplest explanation is most often the correct one. There is no need to invent additional reasons when one is staring you in the face. Who would gain directly from the revelation of an affair?
In fact, there is little need to speculate. This very weekend, the Wall Street Journal reported that prosecutors in New York have evidence it was the brother of Bezos’ girlfriend Lauren Sanchez who gave the text messages to the National Enquirer, the American magazine that published the revelations. By a happy coincidence, the WSJ reports the Enquirer paid Michael Sanchez $200,000 three months before the story came out.
None of that establishes Sanchez’s guilt. The evidence against him may turn out not to be credible.
But for the world’s richest man to put his faith in a sinister international conspiracy rather than accept that it is much more likely someone close to him leaked the messages is an extraordinary belief. The Bezos razor is rusty.
Of course, it is easy to understand Bezos’ anger.
Few of us would be happy to lose a quarter century of marriage and an unimaginable $35 billion.
Yet his anger is misplaced. The affair was real and the betrayal of his wife was his doing alone. Was it necessary for his private life to be splashed across America’s tabloids? Perhaps not; still the story of a wayward billionaire was always going to sell. It is also a business story, of course: there are Amazon shareholders who will wonder about his judgement, especially if it turns out that someone in his inner circle did access his private information so easily.
Moreover, leave aside the irony of Bezos’ anger over the revelation of his private messages, while thousands of owners of Amazon’s Alexa smart speakers have their private messages listened to without their consent.
Instead, the real story is how Bezos’ anger and desire to be seen as a moral crusader has led him into murky waters, throwing out accusations that extend from the White House to Riyadh.
Bezos knows his customers skew young and tech-savvy, as much as the readers of the Washington Post skew liberal, two American constituencies that can be relied upon to be anti-Trump.
Dragging the US president into the mix, with the suggestion that somehow, in the densely-woven soap opera of Bezos’ telling, Trump was involved is a case of fanciful misdirection. America’s liberal media, let’s be honest, needs no encouragement to disparage Donald Trump.
No, for Bezos it is much better to portray yourself as the victim of a global conspiracy because of your devotion to truth-telling, rather than merely a billionaire who succumbed to an affair and then got called out for it by another billionaire on Twitter.
And the Saudi connection? After the tragic murder of Jamal Khashoggi, it seems as if parts of the media in the US are willing to believe any evidence-free assertion about the kingdom. Bezos must have got that idea from Amazon’s website: “Customers who bought that story also bought...”.
The Saudi connection was raised months ago, without any evidence. When it was re-reported this month, two UN special rapporteurs jumped on it and called for an investigation. If they have seen any actual evidence, they have yet to share it with the United Nations, or the Saudi government itself, raising questions about their legitimacy and motivation.
Let's be honest, Bezos isn't the first man caught in an affair to have a spun a fantastical story. But telling tall tales about conspiracies abroad doesn't change the hurt and pain you caused at home.
In Bezos’ most recent letter to his shareholders, he wrote that failures were part of doing business and companies should not be afraid of them. If owning your failures is part of your responsibilities as a CEO, it's also part of your responsibilities as a man, Jeff.
Illustration by Steven Castelluccia

Israel should tread carefully when it comes to annexation
Chris Doyle/Arab News/January 28/2020
Out of the blue, US President Donald Trump will host a summit on Tuesday. It will be at the White House between him and the only two men likely to be the next Israeli prime minister. But forget any “deal of the century,” however it may be labeled — the self-serving agenda is to determine how to fast forward the attendees’ political and electoral agendas. This is to be achieved by determining how much territory to add to the state of Israel, which bits of the West Bank to annex to the parts already annexed in East Jerusalem in 1967. Let us be clear, peace between Israelis and Palestinians is not a consideration. It is just cosmetics.
If there is a peace deal, it will be between these two rivals, Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, as to who will be the next Israeli prime minister and whether Netanyahu gets his much-cherished immunity from prosecution. Some think Trump might be in the mood to rescue his “friend” Netanyahu by pushing Gantz into some power-sharing arrangement. But, beware, Trump does not have friends; he has interests. Right now, it is to escape impeachment and win the November US presidential election — nothing else. His two guests will be expected to play ball with this agenda. If either falls short, they risk being tossed into the Twitter equivalent of the naughty room.
Palestinians, meanwhile, risk being made to pay for the legal difficulties that are besetting the US president and the Israeli prime minister, with Trump and Netanyahu both craving a great distraction. The Senate is considering Trump’s impeachment, even if it has few hallmarks of a judicial process — more of a partisan screaming match. Republican senators are so uninterested they are playing with fidget spinners and stress balls.
Netanyahu is even more brazen. He is demanding immunity and is effectively holding the Israeli political system hostage until he gets it. The Knesset is set to discuss his immunity while Netanyahu is with Trump in Washington. The timing is not accidental. Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of Yisrael Beiteinu and potential kingmaker, accused “Bibi” of “fleeing,” claiming that: “Instead of driving two-and-a-half kilometers to the Knesset, he prefers to fly 9,500 kilometers to Washington.”
All of this has put Gantz, Netanyahu’s rival for the premiership, in a tailspin. His initial reaction was to declare that any publication of Trump’s plan would be an “outright intervention” in the Israeli election campaign. On reflection, he determined that he could not afford to anger Trump, so changed his mind. Even then, on Friday, he again hesitated, demanding a separate meeting with Trump so as not to look too much as if he is a bit-part player in the Trump-Netanyahu roadshow. Gantz might be a retired general but, on the political battlefield, he risks being outmaneuvered.
The contents of the plan are hazy but expectations are low, not least as Netanyahu felt confident enough to invite a coterie of settler leaders to accompany him. Above all, one wonders, how much of the West Bank will Israel consume? Trump has zero objections to Israeli annexation, especially as it would delight his evangelical and pro-Israel support base. His administration has already upended the traditional US position by no longer considering settlements to be illegal.
Annexing the Jordan Valley is a near-certainty. Ever since 1967, the then-ruling Labor Party had planned for this and it is a consensus in Israeli politics. The major settlement areas may also be annexed with the Jerusalem settlements. The more isolated settlements on the central hills of the West Bank or around Hebron are marginally more controversial. Yet all Israeli leaders know this may be their best chance to realize their expansionist dreams. Netanyahu spoke for them all when he declared that: “In the White House today is the greatest friend that Israel has ever had.” The betting must be that both Israeli rivals will seek Trump’s green light to steal the maximum territory, and neither of them will want to be seen as weaker than the other.
The Palestinian leadership has issued a pre-emptive rejection, with little expectation of blocking it. They are not even being consulted. If Area C — which covers 61 percent of the West Bank — is annexed as some fear, more than 200 separate, semi-autonomous Palestinian areas will be wedged inside Israeli territory. Annexation would, in any event, just be the formalization of an intolerable status quo with no upsides.
Palestinian refusal will merely be welcomed as an excuse to initiate the annexation as a fait accompli, regardless of the consequences. King Abdullah of Jordan has threatened to abrogate the peace treaty with Israel in the event of the Jordan Valley being annexed. Given Jordanian public sentiment, he may feel he has little choice.
All Israeli leaders know this may be their best chance to realize their expansionist dreams.
Just as with the Iran nuclear deal, the rest of the international community is watching from the sidelines, as decades of international consensus is about to be tossed into the Trump shredder. How will other states react? The response will probably hover between lukewarm and cold. Certain states will hesitate to antagonize Trump more than they may have already. The EU will no doubt stick to its long-term position, with a complete non-recognition of any annexation and insistence on a return to the negotiating table.
Yet, should annexation go ahead, can these powers just ignore the colossal violation of international law and human rights? The precedent would be alarming. Remember, when Russia illegally annexed Crimea, the EU immediately slapped on sanctions that remain in place today. If consistency was a facet of international relations, Israel would face exactly the same scenario.
Israel should tread carefully. What would be the future for Palestinian Bantustans? And if meaningful Palestinian statehood is not on the table, how long before Palestinians start an equal rights campaign that insists both peoples should have the same rights in one state?
*Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding. Twitter: @Doylech
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

Global economic prospects face many dangers
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/January 28/2020
When world leaders gathered in Davos for the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting last week, the global economy was not at the forefront of discussions, as it so often is at these January gatherings. The assembled captains of industry and notables from politics and civil society instead spent most of their time discussing environmental issues and sustainability.
US President Donald Trump was the odd man out when he praised his economic achievements during his opening speech. Oddly enough, just a few hours before he ascended to the podium, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a downward revision to its October World Economic Outlook — by 0.1 percent for the world economy in 2019 and 2020, to 2.9 and 3.3 percent respectively. The downward revision for 2021 was calculated at 0.2 percent, which means that global economic growth is now estimated to be 3.4 percent for that year.
US economic growth will stand at 2 percent instead of the predicted 2.1 percent for 2020. China is set to grow by 6 percent instead of 6.1 percent.
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath cited the lower growth rate in India, stressed and underperforming economies in emerging markets, and geopolitical tensions as the reasons for the downward revisions.
The news was not all bad, however, as global growth is still expected to rebound from 2019, when it stood at 2.9 percent — the lowest level since the global financial crisis. In that sense, 3.3 percent does constitute a year-on-year improvement. US economic growth will slow from 2.3 percent in 2019 to 2 percent this year, as the effects of the 2017 tax cuts dissipate.
The improved global economic outlook is attributed to trade tensions between the US and China abating in the light of the conclusion of phase one of their bilateral trade agreement.
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva estimated that global trade tensions will make the world economy $700 billion or 0.8 percent worse off in 2020, compared to where it would have been without the tariff increases we have seen over the last two years.
An acceleration of global economic growth this year and next, compared to 2019, is good news. It is particularly important for the outlook on oil, which remains the premier fuel of transport and, as such, depends on thriving trade. What is good for oil generally is good for the Gulf Cooperation Council economies, which, while diversifying, still largely depend on the fortunes of the commodity.
However, we are not out of the woods just yet. The US and China have only agreed on phase one of their comprehensive trade deal. The hard part will be phase two, which will address structural issues such as subsidies for state-owned enterprises in China. The EU fears that Trump might focus his attention on Europe next, with the German car industry at particular risk. The automotive industry does not need more headwinds — it is suffering from huge uncertainty due to the structural shift from the traditional combustion engine to hydrogen-powered, hybrid and electric vehicles over the coming decades.
The improved outlook is attributed to trade tensions between the US and China abating in the light of the conclusion of phase one of their bilateral trade agreement.
Over the last 15 years, Germany’s open economy has served as the engine for its European counterparts. But it was particularly hard hit by the US-China trade spat, as many of its capital goods and cars are bound for the Asian behemoth.
Europe may have avoided a no-deal Brexit, with all of its disruptions, for this year. However, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has made it quite clear that he will not extend the transition phase beyond Dec. 31. UK and EU manufacturers should fasten their seatbelts in case a trade agreement cannot be reached by that date.
It is undeniable that the 10-year expansionary cycle of the world economy is nearing its end. The question is how the next two years will evolve. Trade tensions may have abated, but they are a long way from being resolved. Phase one of the agreement stipulates that China has to purchase an extra $200-billion worth of goods in certain categories from the US. This will dislocate other exporters of agricultural and manufactured products, as well as energy. Geopolitical tensions also persist and can flare up at any time.
The world is furthermore not immune to black swans, as the outbreak of the coronavirus in China last week proved. It could not have come at a worse time: The beginning of the Chinese New Year festivities constitutes the prime traveling and consumption event in the Chinese calendar. No wonder, then, that concerns over the virus shaved $6 off the price of oil in just one week.
Underlying all the one-time or man-made (read trade) events, there is the key structural issue that we live in an ultra-low interest rate world and that most central banks in OECD countries and China have bloated balance sheets. This means there is only so much that these institutions can do when we see a further slowing of the economy. Quantitative easing to the extent we saw in 2008-09 is out of the question in Europe, Japan and in many other places. Fiscal policy is the only way out under such a scenario, which is in line with the current thinking of both the IMF and the European Central Bank. Some countries can afford to do more in this space — like, for instance, Germany, which has balanced its budgets for many years. Others have reached their limits. There is a wall of debt, both public and/or private that many countries will have to address, be they the US, Japan, China or nations in Europe and emerging markets.
In other words, the outlook for this year and next is not bad, but dangers loom around many corners.
• Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert.Twitter: @MeyerResources

Abduction business a profitable string to IRGC’s bow
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 28/2020
The tools the Iranian regime uses to address foreign policy issues are multifaceted, depending on the nature of the issue at hand and the opportunities strategized. Regionally, the Iranian regime has deployed brutal militias and terror groups, comprised mainly of criminals wanted by both Western and Arab governments. Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a key pillar of the Iranian regime, has found a very profitable tool when negotiating and bargaining with Western countries. This tool involves abducting and imprisoning Iranian dual nationals and foreigners, using them for ransom or political leverage; though Tehran will, of course, never admit to this.
However, Hassan Abbasi, a former IRGC official and head of the Center for Borderless Security Doctrinal Analysis, has somewhat naively admitted to this criminal behavior. He said this month: “I don’t know how to solve economic issues without a relationship with the West. Do you want to solve the issue? Every naval force or a ship passes, take 10 or 20 American soldiers every month. Take $1 billion for each one. If you take $1 billion every week, it will add up to $51 billion per year. That’s how it is done.”
Iranian dual nationals who reside in the West but return to Iran are potentially lucrative hostages. They can easily be abducted and charged with fabricated crimes before being sentenced or flogged. But this is not limited to dual nationals — even Westerners who travel to Iran can be subjected to this travesty of justice. Following their trials, and in most cases before the court ruling against them is enforced, the Iranian regime allows these individuals to leave the country in exchange for a hefty “bail” deposit that is equivalent to a ransom payment.
Anyone wishing to research this won’t have to look hard to find dozens of such cases. According to a 2017 Reuters article, the IRGC had arrested at least 30 dual nationals in the preceding two years alone, mostly on spying charges.
One well-known detainee is Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian citizen sentenced to five years’ imprisonment on charges of “threatening to topple the government” in 2016, shortly after being arrested during a visit to her family in Tehran to celebrate Nowruz (Iranian New Year) with her then-22-month-old daughter.
Her husband Richard Ratcliffe, speaking after his latest meeting with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson last week, said that his wife is being used as a “chess piece” in Iran’s foreign policy, and urged the UK government to be “tougher” with the Iranian regime. Ratcliffe also revealed that, according to his wife, Iranian regime officials had told her that, if she wished to be released, she had to act as a spy for them — an offer she refused.
In May last year, the British government warned British-Iranian dual nationals against all travel to Iran, citing the Iranian political system’s continued arbitrary detention and abuse of dual nationals, as well as of Iranian citizens who have links to UK-based institutions.
Dual nationals of other countries face the same dangers on returning to Iran. Iranian-Americans, including the scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, Radio Farda presenter Parnaz Amina, and the journalist and former Washington Post Tehran bureau chief Jason Rezaian, who was detained along with his wife Yeganeh Salehi, were all imprisoned for periods ranging from months to years before being released in return for a ransom payment.
Amir Mirza Hekmati, an Iranian-American and former US Marine, was arrested during a visit to Iran in August 2011 on charges of “spying for the CIA,” for which he was sentenced to death. In March 2012, Iran’s Supreme Court overturned his death sentence and ordered a retrial on the basis that the verdict against Hekmati was “not complete.” He was released in 2016 and left the country as part of a prisoner swap deal.
Australian-British detainee Kylie Moore-Gilbert, a lecturer in Islamic studies at Melbourne University, has been held in Tehran’s infamous Evin Prison since September 2018. She was arrested at Tehran airport while trying to leave the country after attending an academic conference. She was sentenced to 10 years’ imprisonment on charges of espionage.
Like Zaghari-Ratcliffe, Moore-Gilbert has stated that the IRGC attempted to recruit her as a spy in exchange for her release. She has asserted that her detention has been politicized by the Iranian regime, claiming in a recent letter that, in October last year, IRGC officials discussed with her two appeal scenarios, the first offering her a 13-month sentence (essentially “time served,” which would have seen her released immediately) and the second confirming her original 10-year sentence. IRGC officials told Moore-Gilbert that the appeal court would agree to the first scenario in exchange for her spying for the Iranian regime — an offer she “categorically” refused.
What these cases and so many others confirm is that, for Iran’s regime and its military and security forces, there are no “red lines” — kidnapping, false imprisonment, extortion, coercion and other crimes are simply regarded as standard political tools for self-enrichment and leverage. Iran’s regime will not act like a normal government or state, since it is incapable or unwilling to do so, and has no incentive to do so as long as the international community accepts the status quo.
Iranian dual nationals who reside in the West but return to Iran are potentially lucrative hostages.
The Iranian regime is aware of the importance that most nations, especially those in the West, attach to the safety of their nationals, viewing this as a weakness that it can exploit to its advantage.
After acting with impunity for so long, Iran’s regime is not about to change and it will use or exploit these detainees however it can, in order to circumvent sanctions or for any other political purpose. With the number of foreign and dual nationals detained rising, clearly appeasement is simply making the regime bolder in engaging in this lucrative business.
This abduction business is simply another string to the IRGC’s criminal bow, demonstrating that, despite President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif’s eloquent speeches on the international stage, Iran’s regime and the IRGC have abandoned all pretense of civilized behavior and are acting, in effect, as a criminal organization.
* Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami

How coronavirus outbreak threatens national security
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arab News/January 28/2020
Th)e new 2019-nCoV coronavirus infecting thousands of people in China is a human-to-human transmission pathogen that has gone global. The rapid nature of its origin in Wuhan and speed of transmission is evidence of how disease can spread from a central focal point to major points of debarkation on all continents within 36 hours. The 2019-nCoV pathogen has undergone at least four generations of spread to date, so the pathogen is able to spread much wider. Global health security during the spread of this specific coronavirus is a national security issue.
Heat maps illustrate the spread of the 2019-nCoV pathogen. The models predict a dire start to February, with further outbreaks in other Chinese cities, more infections exported abroad, and an explosion of cases in Wuhan. It is predicted that the number of infected people in Wuhan will be greater than 190,000.
The majority of the confirmed 2019-nCoV cases so far have been in mainland China. However, dozens of cases have appeared elsewhere and health authorities have established disease monitoring portals around the world as the international response begins. Given that symptoms do not show during incubation, many cases are likely to slip through the screening system.
To be sure, infectious or contagious diseases are indiscriminate, wildly uncontrollable and are able to independently evolve to counter efforts to suppress their effect. In recent years, we have seen scores of outbreaks of diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu), H7N9 (avian flu), bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), also known as mad cow disease, and Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (MERS), one of six new forms of virus from the family of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). But 2019-nCoV is more aggressive. Models estimate that the number of people one victim can infect — known as the virus’ reproduction number — is between 3.6 and 4.0. SARS, by comparison, was between two and five, and measles, the most contagious disease known to humans, a whopping 12 to 18. Any reproduction number above one is a major policy problem.
Infectious disease outbreaks and their threats to human security and safety are not new. In 1918, the Spanish flu pandemic infected about 500 million people globally (a third of the world’s population at the time) and caused the deaths of 20 to 50 million victims. The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone infected 28,000 and killed more than 11,000.
An outbreak of disease such as 2019-nCoV, or even the perceived threat of an outbreak, can have significant repercussions on trade and travel for the affected nation. The economic effects of infectious diseases can be devastating. The economic loss of closed ports, combined with the Chinese New Year, will be in the hundreds of billions of dollars for Beijing. For comparison, by the end of the West African Ebola outbreak, the three nations suffered a combined gross domestic product hit of $2.8 billion. Moreover, Ebola and measles outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have killed 2,236 and more than 6,000, respectively. Obviously, given current reporting, the Chinese numbers in terms of damage to society and the economy will be much higher.
The discussion of human security versus older, traditional ideas of security is useful in understanding how the global community responds to infectious disease such as 2019-nCoV. The most obvious effect of a disease that may result in the instability of a nation or region is the death toll. Diseases with high mortality rates, especially if highly prevalent, can pose a direct risk to a nation’s security by threatening to sicken and kill a significant portion of the population; while a disease that targets sectors of a population that are relied upon for production and military protection are obviously a danger. Infectious diseases cause significant social disruption through fear and anxiety (based on accurate or inaccurate information), the loss of people in key social positions due to illness or death, discrimination against groups affected by a disease (stigma), and the loss of the majority of (or entire) specific demographic groups, which can be particularly destabilizing.
Given that symptoms do not show during incubation, many cases are likely to slip through the screening system.
The disease spread in China appears to be overwhelming the Chinese health care system and is creating horrendous conditions in hospitals. And, with rapid transmission rates, the number of people infected in Xinjiang, for example, will be quite high. However, Chinese officials are well trained to deal with biological emergencies such as 2019-nCoV because of lessons learned from the SARS outbreak. The ability for Beijing to deploy military medical teams and construction brigades to guarantee security and to build hospitals and wards quickly is impressive. But the overall impact of the disease in China will be seen later in how the populace responds, if at all, to how the government reacted to the disease outbreak and its original source.
Overall, 2019-nCoV is another test of the global disease control system, where every country will need to be ready with disease containment measures and the possible generational jump of the pathogen.
*Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington, DC. Twitter: @tkarasik

Geopolitical tensions may make EastMed pipeline unfeasible
Ramzy Baroud/Arab News/January 28/2020
Massive natural gas discoveries off the eastern coast of Israel are slated to make Tel Aviv a regional energy hub. Whether Israel will be able to translate positive indicators of the largely untapped gas reserves into actual economic and strategic wealth is yet to be seen. What is certain, however, is that the Middle East is already in the throes of a major geostrategic war, which has the potential to become an actual military confrontation. Unsurprisingly, Israel is at the heart of this growing conflict.
“Last week, we started to stream gas to Egypt. We turned Israel into an energy superpower,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu braggedduring a Cabinet meeting on Jan. 19. Netanyahu’s self-congratulatory remarks came on the heels of some exciting financial news for the embattled prime minister, as both Jordan and Egypt are now Tel Aviv’s clients, receiving billions of cubic meters of Israeli gas.
For Netanyahu, pumping Israeli gas to two neighboring Arab countries means more than just economic and political advantage — it is a huge personal boost. The Israeli leader is trying to convince the public to vote for him in yet another general electionin March, while pleading with Israel’s political elite to give him immunity so that he doesn’t have to face various corruption charges.
For years, Israel has been exploiting the discovery of massive deposits of natural gas in the Leviathan and Tamar fields — located about 125 and 80 kilometers west of Haifa, respectively — to reconstruct regional alliances and redefine its geopolitical centrality to Europe. The Israeli strategy, however, has created potential for conflict in an already unstable region, expanding the power play to include Cyprus, Greece, France, Italy and Libya, as well as Egypt, Turkey, Lebanon and Russia.
On Jan. 2, Netanyahu was in Athens signing a gas pipeline dealalongside Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades. The EastMed pipeline is projectedto connect Israel to Cyprus, Greece and, ultimately, Italy, thus transporting Eastern Mediterranean gas directly to the heart of Europe.
A few years ago, this scenario seemed unthinkable, as Israel had previously importedmuch of its natural gas from neighboring Egypt. The Tamar field partly rectified Israel’s reliance on imported gas when it began production in 2013. Shortly after, Israel struck gas again, this time with far greater potential, in the massive Leviathan field. At the end of last month, Leviathan began pumping gas for the first time.
“Leviathan is estimated to hold over 21 trillion cubic feet of natural gas — enough to fill Israeli power-generation needs for the next 40 years, while still leaving an ample supply for export,” Frank Musmar wrote for the BESA Centerfor Strategic Studies.
Egypt’s purchase of Israeli gas — 85 billion cubic meters, with an estimated cost of $19.5 billion — was acquiredthrough the private entity Dolphinus Holdings. The Jordanian deal was signed between the country’s national electricity company NEPCO and American firm Noble Energy, which owns a 40 percent stake in Leviathan.
Jordanians have been protesting Israel’s gas deal en masse, as they view economic cooperation between their country and Israel as an act of normalization, especially as Tel Aviv continues to occupy and oppress Palestinians. And the echoes of the popular protests have obviously reached the Jordanian Parliament, which on Jan. 19 unanimously voted in favor of banning gas imports from Israel.
Israel is diversifying beyond exerting regional economic dominance to becoming a big player on the international geopolitical stage. The EastMed pipeline project, estimated to cost $7 billion, is expected to satisfy 10 percent of Europe’s overall need for natural gas. This is where things get even more interesting. Turkey believes that the pipeline deal, which involves its regional rivals Cyprus and Greece, is designed specifically to marginalize it economically by excluding it from the Mediterranean’s hydrocarbon boom.
Ankara is already a massive energy hub, being the host of TurkStream, which carriesRussian natural gas to Europe and fulfills about 40 percent of the continent’s demand. This has provided both Moscow and Ankara with geostrategic leverage as well as economic advantage. If the EastMed pipeline becomes a reality, Turkey and Russia stand to lose the most.
In a series of surprising moves in the last month, Turkey retaliated by signing a maritime border dealwith Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) and committing to send military support to help Tripoli in its fight against the forces loyal to Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar. “Turkey will not permit any activity that is against its own interests in the region,” Fuat Oktay, Turkey’s vice president, told Anadolu News Agency, adding that “any plan that disregards Turkey has absolutely no chance of success.”
Israel is diversifying beyond exerting regional economic dominance to becoming a big player on the international geopolitical stage.
Although European countries were quick to condemn Ankara, the latter has succeeded in changing the rules of the game by staking a claim to vast areas of the Mediterranean that are in the exclusive economic zones of Greece and Cyprus. Not only will Turkey be drilling for natural gas in Libya’s territorial waters, but also in those of Cyprus. Ankara is accusing Cyprus of violating “the equal claim to discoveries” — an arrangement that followed the military conflict between the countries in 1974.
If the issue is not resolved, the EastMed pipeline project could potentially turn into a pipe dream. What, from an Israeli point of view, seemed like a lucrative deal with immense geopolitical significance now appears to be another extension of the wider Middle Eastern conflict.
While the EU is eager to loosen Russia’s strategic control over the natural gas market, the EastMed pipeline increasingly appears unfeasible from every possible angle. However, considering the massive deposits of natural gas that are ready to fuel struggling European markets, it is almost certain that Mediterranean natural gas will eventually become a major source of political disputes, if not war.
*Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and editor of The Palestine Chronicle. His latest book is “The Last Earth: A Palestinian Story” (Pluto Press, London). Baroud has a Ph.D. in Palestine studies from the University of Exeter. Twitter: @RamzyBaroud