LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 25/19

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Blessed are the eyes that see what you see! For I tell you that many prophets and kings desired to see what you see
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 10/21-24: “At that same hour Jesus rejoiced in the Holy Spirit and said, ‘I thank you, Father, Lord of heaven and earth, because you have hidden these things from the wise and the intelligent and have revealed them to infants; yes, Father, for such was your gracious will. All things have been handed over to me by my Father; and no one knows who the Son is except the Father, or who the Father is except the Son and anyone to whom the Son chooses to reveal him.’ Then turning to the disciples, Jesus said to them privately, ‘Blessed are the eyes that see what you see! For I tell you that many prophets and kings desired to see what you see, but did not see it, and to hear what you hear, but did not hear it.’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 24-25/19
Israel Tells Macron 'Won’t Stand Idle if Aggressed by Lebanon'
Tenenti Says UNIFIL Strongly Condemns Israel's Daily Overflights
Lebanon: Hezbollah Accused of Attempting to Change the Constitution
Lebanon: New Government Proposal Strips FPM of Blocking Third
Aoun Tackles Financial Situation with Khalil, Kanaan
Mashnouq Throws Support behind Othman after Corruption Report
Hariri Leaves for Paris on Family Visit
Army Arrests 'Mustafa al-Hujeiri' in Arsal Special Operation
Hundreds of Syrian Refugees Return Home from Lebanon
Hizbullah Slams 'U.S.-Backed Coup Attempt' in Venezuela
Saudi Ambassador Voices Continuous Support for Lebanon After Meeting with Gemayel
ISF Foils Attempt to Smuggle Liquid Cocaine into Lebanon
Kataeb Party Reiterates Call for Technocrat Government
CLDH Statement regarding the block of Grindr App in Lebanon:

Litles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 24-25/19
How Many Iranians Have Been Killed In Airstrikes In Syria
Iron Dome batteries in Greater Tel Aviv and the South against possible hostilities
Syrian Regime Suspends Special Visas for EU Diplomats
Putin Calls Venezuela's Maduro to Show Support
Pompeo Warns Venezuela's Maduro against Use of Force
U.S. Requests U.N. Security Council Meeting on Venezuela
Brazil Leader Says Venezuela Crisis Won't End in 'Peaceful Way'
China, Russia Side with Maduro as U.S. Backs Venezuela Challenger
'Maduro Must Go,' EU Parliament Chief Says
Kurdish-led forces overrun last ISIS-held village in Syria: monitor
New Bomb Attack Hits Syrian Capital
Turkey Says Can Form 'Security Zone' in Syria Alone
U.S. Sanctions Two Iran-Backed Militias Fighting in Syria
Syria’s Manbij: Town Caught in Crosshairs of Political, Military Interests
Iraq Parliament Approves Largest-Ever Budget for 2019
Arab League Decries Israeli Intention to Halt TIPH
US Reiterates Its Support for Sarraj
Morocco Busts ISIS-linked Terrorist Cell
Amnesty Slams Iran's Mass Arrests in 2018
Iranian Diplomat Condemns Tehran’s 'Reckless' Operations
Land Subsidence Threatens Iran
France to Announce New Trade Mechanism with Iran Soon
Global Fatwa Index: Terror Fatwas Focus on Abolishing Patriotism

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 24-25/19
Lebanon: Hezbollah Accused of Attempting to Change the Constitution/Sanaa Al-Jack/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 24/19
How Many Iranians Have Been Killed In Airstrikes In Syria/Jerusalem Post/January 24/19
Iron Dome batteries in Greater Tel Aviv and the South against possible hostilities/DEBKAfile/January 24/19
What is More Important than Pompeo’s Reassurances/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 24/19
Opposing China's Dangerous Ambitions/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/January 24/19
To the Secretary General of Muslim World League/A. Z. Mohamed/Gatestone Institute/January 24/19
Time to Tell the Truth about the Palestinian Issue/Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/January 24/19
Analysis/In Its Battle Against Iran, Israel Is Dependent on Russia's Plans for Syria/Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/January 24/19
Opinion/The War That Will Decide Israel’s Future Won’t Involve Airstrikes, Tanks or Missiles/Chuck Freilich/Haaretz/January 24/19
Netanyahu’s Political and Legal Challenges in the Next Elections/David Makovsky/The Washington Institute/January 24/19
Venezuela proves Gulf prosperity should not be taken for granted/Omar Al-Ubaydli/Al Arabiya/January 24/19

Latest LCCC English Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 24-25/19
Israel Tells Macron 'Won’t Stand Idle if Aggressed by Lebanon'
Naharnet/January 24/19/Israeli President Reuven Rivlin told his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, during a visit to Paris that Israel “won’t stand idly shall it be threatened by Lebanon,” al-Joumhouria daily reported on Thursday. Rivlin met Macron ahead of the latter’s scheduled visit to Lebanon next month, and discussed “Iran’s growing influence in Syria and Lebanon,” said the daily. Rivlin told Macaron that his country "will not stand idly by if it is threatened by Lebanon,” and accused Hizbullah of "setting up precision-missile plants in the heart of Beirut under a civilian cover and with Iranian support." Revlin has reportedly said that "Israel does not differentiate between Hizbullah and the Lebanese state," asking Macron to “exert necessary pressure on the Lebanese government, to extend its sovereignty and undermine all interventions by Iran and Hizbullah, that may lead us to war."

Tenenti Says UNIFIL Strongly Condemns Israel's Daily Overflights
Naharnet/January 24/19/The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) strongly condemns Israel's daily violations of Lebanon's airspace, Lebanon's National News Agency quoted UNIFIL's spokesman as saying on Thursday. Describing the overflights as a violation of Lebanese sovereignty and U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 between Israel and Hizbullah, Tenenti said such violations obstruct the U.N. force's efforts to lower tensions and establish a stable security environment in south Lebanon.And noting that UNIFIL has protested all such violations and reported them to the U.N. Security Council, the spokesman reminded that UNIFIL chief Maj. Gen. Stefano Del Col and U.N. chief Antonio Guterres have repeatedly called on Israel to stop its overflights.

Lebanon: Hezbollah Accused of Attempting to Change the Constitution
Sanaa Al-Jack/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 24/19
Maronite Patriarch Beshara Al-Rai warned of “secret and public attempts” to change the system and the identity and of a “tripartite ruling that undermines the Christian-Islamic coexistence formula.”During a meeting of the main Christian party leaders and deputies in Bkirki on Jan. 16, Rai warned that Lebanese unity was in jeopardy, “One of the reasons behind the current political crisis is the failure to implement Taef Agreement and the Constitution,” he explained, stressing that non-compliant practices and norms have been as well introduced. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Writer and Political Analyst Hanna Saleh said that talks about a tripartite ruling were not new, but gained more impetus after Hezbollah and its allies obtained a parliamentary majority. He noted in this regard that Iran had submitted many proposals through Hezbollah to control the Lebanese decision making. Saleh recounted that after the July 2006 war with Israel, then-Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki visited former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and officially discussed with him the tripartite ruling. It was reported that Mottaki proposed the creation of a vice-president seat - like that of the prime minister and the speaker – to be occupied by a Shiite figure. In response, Siniora told his guest that it would be inappropriate to issue such statements from the platform of the premiership, so the Iranian minister left the Serail and presented his idea at a press conference from the Iranian embassy.
Hezbollah’s goals were never secret, Saleh said, noting that during a dialogue meeting in Saint-Cloud more than 10 years ago, the party’s representative, MP Nawwaf Mousawi, told the other participants that Hezbollah would assume the role Syria played before withdrawing from Lebanon. But these indicators did not push the March 14 Forces to discuss real and responsible means to face the coordinated attack by the party and the Iranian regime, said the political analyst. Lebanese Forces MP Eddy Abi Lamaa said that the Maronite Patriarch’s remarks about a tripartite ruling were a proactive warning to those who might have such ideas in mind. “We adhere to the current Lebanese formula and equality between Muslims and Christians and respect the Constitution and the law. And this was clearly said in the final statement” of the Maronite summit in Bkerki, he stressed. Former MP Fares Soueid told Asharq Al-Awsat that the patriarch had real concerns about the tripartite ruling. He said that [Hezbollah] considered it was the right timing to employ its military victory in Syria and change the Constitution in its favor.

Lebanon: New Government Proposal Strips FPM of Blocking Third
Beirut- Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 24/19 /Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri said the issue of the government would be decided next week, following a meeting on Wednesday with Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt. Jumblatt, for his part, expressed hope that the government would be formed soon.“There are positive matters developing in the government file, and I will resolve this issue next week; we want a government of national unity to restore the confidence of the citizens,” Hariri said, refusing to answer a question on whether he might relinquish the role of premier-designate.
While he refused to delve into the details of the proposed solutions, he stressed that regional differences “should not prevent us from achieving the interest of the Lebanese people, and in light of the economic reality, we have to be a bit humble.”Lebanese leaders are currently working to agree on the distribution of some ministerial portfolios, after resolving what has become known as the “Sunni node”, by allocating a ministry to the pro-March 8 “Sunni Consultative Meeting” from the share of President Michel Aoun. This formula will prevent any side from securing the vetoing third within the cabinet.
Sources in Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) told Asharq Al-Awsat that the agreement was based on the idea that the minister be a member of the president’s working group, but when voting on some issues, he would discuss the matter with the Consultative Meeting to take the appropriate decision. If this proposal is implemented, Foreign Minister in the caretaker government and FPM leader Gebran Bassil would be giving up his requirement that the FPM and Aoun’s blocs secure the blocking third with 11 ministers. Meanwhile, Speaker Nabih Berri was quoted as talking about “a new breath and momentum to form a government within a week or less.”Development and Liberation bloc MP Ali Bazzi said that Berri underlined the need to overcome political bickering and divisions and face the country’s economic and financial challenges.

Aoun Tackles Financial Situation with Khalil, Kanaan
Naharnet/January 24/19/President Michel Aoun, discussed the financial situation on Thursday during a meeting with caretaker Minister of Finance, Ali Hassan Khalil, and Chairman of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, MP Ibrahim Kanaan, the National News Agency reported. Khalil has affirmed that discussions have tackled the means to “reduce the deficit and establishing a new financial reform path.” “We are currently looking toward easing the deficit and establishing a new financial reform path. Things stand at ease as the result of announcements made after the Economic Summit and the countries’ willingness to help Lebanon,” said Khalil in remarks he made to reporters after the meeting. “We agreed on the proper way to ensure regularity of payment, especially in terms of wages and bonds, within the constitutional frameworks so that there will be no problems in the future,” he added. For his part, Kanaan said: “We assure the Lebanese that legal ways are available that ensure the state’s stability. As soon as the government is formed, the first thing we will work on is approving the state budget.”

Mashnouq Throws Support behind Othman after Corruption Report
Naharnet/January 24/19/Caretaker Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq on Thursday threw his support behind Internal Security Forces chief Maj. Gen. Imad Othman after a report in al-Akhbar newspaper accused him of preventing the judiciary from interrogating officers accused of receiving bribes from fugitives. “Maj. Gen. Imad Othman is above any suspicion and under the law,” Mashnouq tweeted. “He will remain to be the pillar of the ISF, the spirit of this institution and its strong heart. “I salute him and express all respect for his position and all support for this institution in the face of campaigns wherever they come from,” the minister added. Arab Tawhid Party chief ex-minister Wiam Wahhab cited al-Akhbar's report to wage a fresh attack on Othman, with whom he has been at loggerheads since the deadly Jahliyeh raid. “From now on, we hope no one will lecture us about combating corruption if Imad Othman does not land in jail. What has been mentioned in al-Akhbar newspaper can topple an entire state and its guardians. Mr. President, the state is at stake, so let this criminal be jailed,” Wahhab said, addressing President Michel Aoun.

Hariri Leaves for Paris on Family Visit
Naharnet/January 24/19/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri left for Paris Thursday evening for a “brief family visit,” his office said. Hariri has met in recent days with Speaker Nabih Berri and Progressive Socialist Party chief ex-MP Walid Jumblat as part of a renewed and upbeat drive to form the new government. The issue of representing the Consultative Gathering, a grouping of six Hizbullah-backed Sunni MPs, has delayed the formation process for several months now. Wrangling over Christian and Druze representation had also delayed the process before the parties managed to reach settlements over shares. Berri has quoted Hariri as saying that the government could be formed “within a week or less.”Hariri himself announced Wednesday that he will “settle the issue” next week.

Army Arrests 'Mustafa al-Hujeiri' in Arsal Special Operation
Naharnet/January 24/19/The army on Thursday arrested a notorious “terrorist” in the northeastern border town of Arsal, media reports said. “In a special operation in Arsal, army intelligence agents arrested Mustafa al-Hujeiri, aka Mustafa Anis, one of the most notorious terrorists,” LBCI television reported. “He was wounded when he tried to hurl a hand grenade at the members of the special intelligence unit,” the TV network added. An Islamist cleric known as “Abou Taqiyeh”, whose real name is also Mustafa al-Hujeiri, had been arrested in November 2017 in connection with his alleged role in the 2014 kidnap of dozens of troops and and policemen at the hands of the Islamic State and al-Nusra Front jihadist groups.

Hundreds of Syrian Refugees Return Home from Lebanon
Associated Press/Naharnet/January 24/19/Hundreds of Syrian refugees in Lebanon have gone back to Syria, the latest batch to head home to the war-torn country in months. The refugees had gathered since the early hours of Thursday in the northern Beirut suburb of Burj Hammoud. There, they boarded buses that took them home. Hundreds others also gathered in other parts of Lebanon from where buses took them home. The returns come as Syrian government forces have made gains in recent years, capturing nearly 60 percent of Syria. Thursday's return was organized by Lebanon's General Security Directorate in charge of foreigners in Lebanon. Lebanon is hosting about 950,000 registered Syrian refugees. That's according to the U.N. refugee agency. The government estimates the true number of Syrian refugees in the country at 1.5 million.

Hizbullah Slams 'U.S.-Backed Coup Attempt' in Venezuela
Naharnet/January 24/19/Hizbullah on Thursday condemned what it called “the blatant U.S. interference to undermine stability in Venezuela,” a few hours after U.S. President Donald Trump recognized the opposition leader as the country's “interim president.”“We strongly condemn the coup attempt against the legitimate authority in the country, which was instigated and backed by the United States of America,” Hizbullah said in a statement. “Hizbullah stresses that it stands by President Nicolas Maduro and his elected government,” the party added. “The series of acknowledgments that are submissive to the U.S. will cannot bestow legitimacy on the putschists,” Hizbullah emphasized. It also noted that the entire world knows that the U.S. objective “is not to defend democracy and freedom, as Washington is claiming, but rather to control the country's resources and assets and punish national states for their policies that are opposed to U.S. hegemony in the world.” On Wednesday, the United States, Canada and most of Caracas' South American neighbors endorsed opposition leader Juan Guaido's claim on the Venezuelan presidency. But European and EU leaders, while expressing support for popular protests against incumbent Nicolas Maduro, did not go so far -- stressing calls for new elections.

Saudi Ambassador Voices Continuous Support for Lebanon After Meeting with Gemayel
Kataeb.org/Thursday 24th January 2019/Former President Amine Gemayel on Thursday met with Saudi Ambassador Walid Al-Bukhari, in the first visit since the latter was assigned as the Kingdom's top envoy to Lebanon. Following the meeting held at the House of Future in Bickfaya, Al-Bukhari hailed the Gemayel family as prestigious, praising its historic role in Lebanon. Asked about an imminent Saudi financial assistance to Lebanon, the ambassador stressed that his country's policy towards Lebanon has always been based on supporting the country as well as safeguarding its security and stability. Earlier this week, Saudi Finance Minister Mohammad Al-Jadaan said that his country is prepared to do all it can to prop up Lebanon’s ailing economy, but stopped short of providing any specific details. His comments came less than 24 hours after Qatar said it planned to buy $500 million worth of sovereign bonds to shore up Beirut’s battered bond market. "We are interested to see stability in Lebanon and we will support Lebanon all the way,” Al-Jadaan told CNBC on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday.

ISF Foils Attempt to Smuggle Liquid Cocaine into Lebanon
Naharnet/January 24/19/The Internal Security Forces said it foiled a liquid cocaine smuggling attempt to transfer the drug from Belgium into Lebanese territories, the National News Agency reported on Thursday. ISF said the drugs were concealed “professionally” inside vehicles transported from Belgium into Lebanon via Beirut’s airport. An “international cell had planned to smuggle massive amounts of liquid cocaine into Lebanon,” said ISF, adding that the cell is masterminded by one of the most dangerous fugitives, a Lebanese identified by his initials as G.H. A suspicious vehicle imported from Belgium was tracked in the Aley neighborhood and confiscated. “A meticulous inspection was carried out. A metal box professionally concealed inside the vehicle was found. By examining its contents, it was found to contain a heavy liquid weighing 75 kg. By examining a sample, it was found that the percentage of cocaine was 90%, equivalent to 65 kg of pure cocaine,” said ISF.

Kataeb Party Reiterates Call for Technocrat Government
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 24 January, 2019/The Kataeb Party renewed its calls to form a government of technocrats and to adopt a policy of neutrality in the wake of the country’s deteriorating economic situation. In a statement following its weekly politburo meeting, the party said: “We consider that Lebanon today is paying the price of being entangled in regional conflicts... We call for adherence to the policy of neutrality, stressing that Lebanon’s supreme interest is to preserve its historic Arab and international friendships.”The Kataeb commented on the recent Arab Economic and Social Development Summit in Beirut, noting that Arab messages during the meeting were “discouraging.”The party, on the other hand, highly valued the initiative of Maronite Patriarch Beshara Al-Rai to bring all Maronite leaders together around a dialogue table last week. Calling on the different parties to rescue the country, the Kataeb emphasized that Lebanon could only have full sovereignty if its army became the only armed force on Lebanese territory. The statement added that Moody’s downgrading the rating of Lebanon was a “very serious indicator and a new warning to the need to speed up the formation of a government of neutral technocrats, capable of implementing urgent reform policies, and to hold a national dialogue that will thoroughly examine all contentious issues.”

CLDH Statement regarding the block of Grindr App in Lebanon:
On Friday, January 18th, reports indicated that Grindr, a popular online dating application used by LGBTI individuals, had been blocked on the 3G and 4G mobile data networks of Alfa and Touch.
After contacting both companies, a representative from Touch Lebanon informed us that the Ministry of Telecommunications had ordered the block.
A trusted anonymous source also confirmed to SMEX on Wednesday, January 23rd, that the blocking of the application was the result of an administrative decision taken by Telecommunications Minister Jamal Al-Jarrah, who had received a request to ban the app from a national security agency. In a report published on Tuesday January 22nd, The Daily Star reported that both the Ministry of Telecommunications and security agencies had denied any involvement in the blocking of the application. A week since the blocking was originally instituted, which has been consistently in effect with only a few users reporting brief, intermittent access, the Ministry of Telecommunications has still not publicly stated the reason behind its decision. This sets a dangerous precedent for the authorities to police individual freedoms, threatening not only their free expression but their access to information, while also undermining legal procedures and due processes. In accordance with Article 125 of the E-transactions and Data Protection Law, which came into effect last week, decisions like this must receive judicial approval. In light of this, we, the undersigned, formally request that Minister Al Jarrah to clarify the matter at hand and revoke the decision to block Grindr. We also ask that the Ministry take clear and transparent steps in future decisions, and to follow legal processes.

Latest LCCC English Miscellaneous Reports & News published on January 24-25/19
How Many Iranians Have Been Killed In Airstrikes In Syria
جيروزاليم بوست: كم يبلغ عدد الإيرانيين الذين قُتلوا جراء الغارات الجوية الإسرائيلي على سوريا
Jerusalem Post/January 24/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/71452/jerusalem-post-how-many-iranians-have-been-killed-in-airstrikes-in-syria-%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b2%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d9%85-%d8%a8%d9%88%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d9%83%d9%85-%d9%8a%d8%a8%d9%84%d8%ba-%d8%b9/
Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in March 2011, Israel has admitted carrying out airstrikes.
After the recent round of airstrikes by Israel against Iranian targets in Syria, the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said that 12 Iranians were among those killed. This was after at least four sites maintained by the Iranian IRGC Quds Force members were struck. Nevertheless this is one of the few times that more than a handful of Iranians have been reported killed in airstrikes in Syria, despite what former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot characterized recently as more than 1,000 airstrikes in Syria.
Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in March 2011, Israel has admitted carrying out airstrikes. Over the years, the number of admitted airstrikes has grown. In many incidents, Syrian media have blamed Israel for airstrikes. Only in a smattering of those attacks have Iranians been reported killed.
In the early days of the Syrian conflict, these incidents were very rare. In mid-February 2013, an IRGC commander named Hussam Hush Nawis, who also went by the nom du guerre Hassan Shateri, was killed in Jamraya 5 km. from Damascus. A Syrian rebel group blamed Israel for the attack, but Iran’s Mehr news pointed the finger at “Israeli agents,” not an airstrike. On January 18, 2015, IRGC Gen. Mohammed Ali Allahdadi was killed in an airstrike near the Golan Heights along with five other Iranians and a half-dozen Hezbollah fighters.
SOHR has become one of the main sources for identifying Iranians killed in Syria but its fatality statistics are often unclear. For instance, one report indicated nine Iranians were killed in July 2018 airstrikes, one of which targeted a warehouse near Aleppo. A separate report said nine Syrian soldiers were killed there, while a third report indicated three “others” were killed, according to SOHR.
The “others” might have been Iranian. In late May, another report claimed nine Iranians were killed near Homs, but Iran’s media denied that they had lost any personnel. During a May airstrike near Kiswah, another eight Iranians were reported killed. SOHR said 15 had been killed in total.
In an April 9 attack on drone hangars at the Tiyas Military Airbase near Homs, also known as the T-4 Airbase, seven IRGC members were reported killed, including an officer named Mehdi Dehghan. Initially, Fars News reported only three Iranian were killed. Several were named to begin with, before details were retracted in Iranian sources. This information appeared to be confirmed in Iranian media before some of the details were deleted. An official was quoted in The New York Times saying that this was the first time “live Iranian” targets were struck. 11 more Iranians may have been killed in a late April attack near Hama. In December, an airstrike near Damascus was said to have killed 12 Iranians. SOHR also reported airstrikes in September and November 2017 that may have killed Iranians. The reports were not always clear on who the casualties were, even when IRGC sites were targeted. The total numbers since 2012 add up to between 60 and 80 Iranians killed in airstrikes in Syria, if the estimates provided by various sources are credible.
In the fog of war, reports of casualties are often either biased or contradictory. For instance, while Syrian rebel sources may inflate the number of Iranian casualties, Iranian media seeks to play down the numbers. Denial also dovetails with the Syrian regime narrative, which often claims that regime air defenses intercepted incoming missiles. Soldiers don’t die in attacks which supposedly were foiled, according to logic of the Syrian regime and its Iranian ally.
Unlike some of the “martyrs” Iran seeks to honor in the war against ISIS or other conflicts in Iraq and Syria, those killed in the airstrikes are seen as a humiliation. If Iran admitted that it lost scores of men in Syria and didn’t retaliate, it would appear weak. The fog of war benefits Iran in this way. It also benefits the Syrian regime, which doesn’t have to admit that its air defense is unable to defend Iranian assets in Syria.
The question of why so few Iranians have been reported killed speaks to the precise nature of the airstrikes that have been revealed. For instance, in the January 20-21 airstrikes against four IRGC targets and several Syrian air defense targets, very few personnel were harmed. Yet the exact targets of most of the hundreds of airstrikes that officials have mentioned in interviews are largely unknown. When they have been revealed, such as the warehouse in Latakia struck in September, they consist of sites such as warehouses that don’t include personnel. This has also reduced casualties. Gadi Eisenkot told The Times in mid-January that Israel has struck thousands of targets. With only a few dozen reported killed in those strikes, it appears the airstrikes have among the lowest number of casualties per airstrike of any war in recent history.

Iron Dome batteries in Greater Tel Aviv and the South against possible hostilities
DEBKAfile/January 24/19
Growing concern is reported by DEBKAfile’s military sources in Israel’s government and IDF command that Iran is planning to instigate coordinated escalations of violence on its northern and southern fronts. In the last few hours, statements from both Tehran and Damascus indicate that Iran has decided on a powerful response to the Israeli air and ground missile strikes on Monday, Jan. 21 against its facilities in and south of Damascus. Officials in Tehran are saying that the Fatteh-110 ground missile launched against the Israeli Hermon north of the Golan – and shot down – was an inadequate a response to those assaults and Israel deserved harsher punishment. The Syria’s UN ambassador reflected this spirit on Wednesday, when he warned Israel that Ben Gurion international airport would be targeted for any further IDF strikes at Damascus airport. This was taken in Israel as a Syrian-Iranian threat to start aiming Iranian surface missiles against a strategic target. It is also estimated that Tehran is bent on ramping up war tensions additionally around the Gaza Strip in order to force the IDF to divide its efforts between two fronts.
Therefore, on Thursday, the IDF deployed Iron Dome anti-missile batteries in the Greater Tel Aviv area of central Israel and extra batteries north of the Gaza Strip at Ashdod. The IDF later announced the mobilization of reserves for operating the air defense system.

Syrian Regime Suspends Special Visas for EU Diplomats
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 24 January, 2019/The European Commission said on Thursday that the head of Syria's regime, Bashar al-Assad, had suspended special visas for European Union diplomats to Damascus. "The Bashar al-Assad regime has suspended multiply entry visas," a spokeswoman told a regular Commission briefing. "We are continuing as the EU ... to do whatever we can to avoid it having an impact on the important work we are doing on the ground."The special permission to use multiple-entry Syrian visas for access to Damascus was rescinded at the start of January with no explanation from the Syrian regime, EU diplomats told Reuters earlier this week, complicating efforts to distribute humanitarian aid to civil war victims. Meanwhile, a car bomb exploded in the al-Adawi neighborhood of Syria's capital on Thursday causing damage but no casualties, regime media said. Syrian state news agency SANA called it a "terrorist explosion" and gave no further details.

Putin Calls Venezuela's Maduro to Show Support
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 24/19/Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday called his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro and expressed support, after several other nations recognized self-declared leader Juan Guaido, the Kremlin said. "The President of Russia expressed support for the legitimate authorities of Venezuela in the context of a domestic political crisis that has been provoked from the outside," it said. Putin said that any intervention by other countries "violates the fundamental norms of international law," according to the statement.  According to the Kremlin, Maduro thanked Russia for its "principled position" on the ongoing crisis. On Wednesday, the United States and major South American nations recognized opposition head Guaido as interim leader. The U.N. urged dialogue in Caracas to avoid "disaster."The Kremlin has backed Maduro, who has been hit by U.S. and EU sanctions, and ostracized as a dictator by Western powers for his suppression of the opposition.  Moscow has warned Washington against any attempts to militarily intervene in Venezuela.Russia has extensive economic interests in Venezuela and has invested billions of dollars in its energy sector. Last December Putin hosted Maduro as he traveled to Russia to whip up support from allies to prop up his regime and an economy in free fall.

Pompeo Warns Venezuela's Maduro against Use of Force
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 24/19/U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday warned Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro not to use force against mass demonstrations and urged further international support for the self-declared acting president. A day after the United States and major Latin American nations recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as the acting president, Pompeo pressed his case at a special meeting of the Organization of American States. "The time for debate is done. The regime of former president Nicolas Maduro is illegitimate," Pompeo said. "His regime is morally bankrupt, it's economically incompetent, and it is profoundly corrupt, and it is undemocratic to the core," he said. Pompeo demanded that the military, whose leadership has confirmed its loyalty to Maduro, protect Guaido, a day after deadly street clashes. "I reiterate our warning about any decision by remnant elements of the Maduro regime to use violence to repress the peaceful democratic transition," Pompeo said. Pompeo urged all members of the Organization of American States to recognize Guaido. The most notable holdout is Mexico, whose new leftist president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, has pledged a foreign policy of non-intervention."All OAS member states must align themselves with democracy and respect for the rule of law," Pompeo said. His remarks were followed by a protest as Medea Benjamin, the co-founder of peace group Code Pink who frequently disrupts official events, held up a banner that said, "Don't support the coup in Venezuela."Pompeo remained seated, offering a slight smile, as Benjamin was told that the protest was not allowed. The United States argues that Maduro's re-election last year was invalid due to widespread irregularities. Maduro had declared the National Assembly, led by Guaido's opposition, to be illegitimate. Pompeo also announced $20 million in humanitarian assistance for Venezuela "as soon as logistically possible" in response to what he said was a request from the National Assembly. Venezuela has suffered hyperinflation and scarcities of basic food and medicine amid an economic crisis in which millions have fled the country.

U.S. Requests U.N. Security Council Meeting on Venezuela
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 24/The United States on Thursday called for a meeting of the U.N. Security Council to discuss the crisis in Venezuela, the U.S. mission to the United Nations said. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is expected to attend the open meeting requested for Saturday, diplomats said.

Brazil Leader Says Venezuela Crisis Won't End in 'Peaceful Way'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 24/19/The political crisis in Venezuela, where a U.S.-backed opposition leader has claimed the presidency from Nicolas Maduro, won't end "in a peaceful way," Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro predicted. But Brazil is currently "at the limit of what we can do to restore democracy in that country," Bolsonaro told the Brazilian network Record TV in an interview late Wednesday in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, where he was attending the World Economic Forum. Brazil was on Wednesday one of the first countries, after the United States, to recognize the speaker of Venezuela's opposition-held parliament, Juan Guaido, as self-proclaimed interim leader of his crisis-wracked country.
The declaration, also backed by Argentina, Canada, Chile and Peru and another six countries in the region but rejected by Russia, Cuba, Nicaragua and Bolivia, has triggered fears that Venezuela could descend into violence. Bolsonaro's comment appeared to discard the possibility of Brazilian military intervention. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has ordered U.S. diplomats out and called on his military to rally around him, while U.S. President Donald Trump's administration has warned "all options" are on the table if forceful moves were made against Guaido and the opposition. "History has shown that dictatorships don't give up power to the opposition in a peaceful way," said Bolsonaro, a far-right former paratrooper who openly admires Brazil's 1964-1985 military dictatorship. "We are watching the actions of the (Venezuelan) government, or I should say Maduro dictatorship," he said. "Obviously there are strong countries ready for other consequences, as was recently announced by the Trump government," but Brazil, for the moment, was simply "watching with great attention," Bolsonaro said. Bolsonaro's vice president, retired general Hamilton Mourao, who stayed in Brazil as acting president, told reporters on Wednesday that "our foreign policy is to not intervene in the domestic affairs of another country."

China, Russia Side with Maduro as U.S. Backs Venezuela Challenger
EU powers joined the United States and major South American nations in recognizing an opposition figurehead as Venezuela's interim leader on Thursday but China and Russia threw their weight behind its President Nicolas Maduro. Here are some of the key reactions after the head of the legislature Guaido declared himself "acting president" on Wednesday.
U.S. recognizes Guaido
U.S. President Donald Trump recognized Guaido as acting leader, declaring his National Assembly "the only legitimate branch of government duly elected by the Venezuelan people."
The U.S. said it stood ready to use "all options" if Maduro tries to quash the opposition.
China: don't interfere
China, Venezuela's main creditor, "opposes interference in Venezuelan affairs by external forces," Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a news conference.
She said Beijing urged calm pending a "political resolution to Venezuela's problem through peaceful dialogue within Venezuela's constitutional framework."
EU: rule of law
EU Council President Donald Tusk wrote on Twitter that "unlike Maduro, the parliamentary assembly, including Juan Guaido, have a democratic mandate from Venezuelan citizens."
EU diplomatic chief Federica Mogherini in a statement stressed EU support "for the restoration of democracy and rule of law in Venezuela through a credible peaceful political process in line with the Venezuelan constitution."
Russia: beware bloodshed
Russia viewed Guaido's move as an "attempted usurpation of power" and a breach of international law, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. The Russian foreign ministry warned that support for Guaido was a "direct path to lawlessness and bloodshed."
France: 'restore democracy'
French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe favored "the restoration of democracy" after what he called Maduro's "illegitimate" election in May last year.
Neighbors: time up
Several of Venezuela's regional neighbors said Maduro's time was up. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said "Brazil will support politically and economically the process of transition so that democracy and social peace return to Venezuela."Colombian President Ivan Duque said his country was behind Guaido and will "accompany this process of transition to democracy so that the Venezuelan people free themselves of their dictatorship." Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay and Peru issued a joint statement endorsing Guaido as interim president.
Cuba, Mexico: 'imperialism'
Cuba and Mexico offered Maduro support however. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel slammed "imperialist attempts to discredit and destabilize" Venezuela.
U.N.: 'disaster' risk
U.N. head Antonio Guterres appealed for dialogue to avoid "an escalation that would lead to the kind of conflict that would be a disaster for the people of Venezuela and for the region."
Polls 'only way out'
Spain backed a European Union call for free elections to restore democracy. Foreign Minister Josep Borrell said the measure was the "only way out" of the impasse.

'Maduro Must Go,' EU Parliament Chief Says
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 24/19/Venezuela's beleaguered president Nicolas Maduro must step down immediately to make way for a peaceful transition through free and fair elections, European Parliament President Antonio Tajani said Thursday.
In a stronger statement than other EU leaders, who did not explicitly call for Maduro's ouster, Tajani also described Venezuela's self-declared leader Juan Guaido as Europe's only legitimate interlocutor. "In the face of general discontent, Maduro has to go now," Tajani said in a statement. "It is clear that the Venezuelan people are fed up with the illegitimate regime of Maduro, that did not win the presidency in free and fair elections and clings to power while imprisoning the opposition," he said. Tajani said the European Parliament, the European Union's only elected body, will debate the crisis at a full session next week, adding no country in the world has received more attention in the assembly than Venezuela. Tajani said he spoke anew with Guaido, the president of the National Assembly who has declared himself president.
"President Juan Guaido is the only institutional interlocutor in Venezuela because he is the one who enjoys democratic legitimacy," he added. "We are very concerned with the risks of violence and the repression of the regime in the face of massive protest marches," the Italian politician said. "A peaceful transition of power must be prepared through free and credible elections," Tajani said. He urged the EU and other world powers to help with a transition back to democracy in Venezuela. Speaking on behalf of the 28-nation bloc, the EU's diplomatic chief Federica Mogherini said the voice of the Venezuelan people "cannot be ignored" and called for "free and credible elections." She stopped short of calling for Maduro's ouster and endorsing Guaido. The United States, Canada and major South American nations quickly backed Guaido, leaving Maduro increasingly isolated.

Kurdish-led forces overrun last ISIS-held village in Syria: monitor
AFP/Thursday, 24 January 2019/Kurdish-led fighters overran the last village held by ISIS in Syria on Wednesday, confining its once vast cross-border “caliphate” to two small hamlets, a war monitor said. It is the culmination of a broad offensive launched by the Syrian Democratic Forces last September with US-led coalition support in which they have reduced the extremists’ last enclave on the north bank of the Euphrates valley near the Iraqi border to a tiny rump. The capture of the village of Baghouz leaves the few remaining diehard ISIS fighters holed up in scattered homesteads among the irrigated fields and orchards on the north bank of the Euphrates Valley. “Search operations are continuing in Baghouz to find any ISIS fighters who are still hiding,” the head of the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP. “The SDF will now have to push on into the farmland around Baghouz.”
Around 4,900 people, mostly women and children but including 470 ISIS fighters, have fled the extremists’ fast dwindling enclave since Monday, Abdel Rahman said late on Tuesday. Of those 3,500 surrendered to the advancing SDF on Tuesday alone. They were evacuated on dozens of trucks chartered by the SDF. The fall of Baghouz follows the SDF’s capture of the enclave’s sole town of Hajin and the villages of Al-Shaafa and Sousa in recent weeks. The new wave of departures means that nearly 27,000 people have left former ISIS areas since early December, including almost 1,800 extremists who have surrendered, the Observatory said.

New Bomb Attack Hits Syrian Capital
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 24/19/A bomb attack hit a northeastern neighborhood of the Syrian capital Thursday, state media said, in the third such explosion in a regime-held area in less than a week. State news agency SANA reported "a terrorist bombing in the Adawi area with an explosive device planted in a car, causing material damage but no casualties." The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the blast hit near the embassy of key government ally Russia. The Britain-based war monitor said four people were lightly wounded. The latest blast came after the first explosion in Damascus in more than a year on Sunday, in which the Observatory reported "some people killed and injured". State media said there were no victims. On Tuesday, a car bomb killed one in the regime's coastal stronghold of Latakia, according to state media.Syria's civil war has killed more than 360,000 people and displaced millions since it started in 2011 with the bloody repression of anti-government protests. With key military backing from Russia, President Bashar al-Assad's forces have retaken large parts of Syria from rebels and jihadists, and now control almost two-thirds of the country. The Syrian regime in May retook a final scrap of territory held by the Islamic State group in southern Damascus, cementing total control over the capital for the first time in six years.

Turkey Says Can Form 'Security Zone' in Syria Alone
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 24/19/Turkey could establish a "security zone" in neighbouring Syria on its own, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday, as the United States plans to withdraw troops from the war-torn country. "We can establish this security zone on our own and take the necessary measures," Cavusoglu told A-Haber television. Turkey intends to set up a 20-mile (32 kilometres) zone that will keep the militia of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) militia away from its border. The YPG is seen as an effective ground force by the US in the fight against the Islamic State group but Turkey says it is linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Ankara and Washington list as a terror group. Turkey has been threatening for months to launch an offensive in northern Syria to drive out US-backed Syrian Kurdish fighters. However Ankara has put its plans on hold after US President Donald Trump made a surprise announcement in December to pull out its some 2,000 troops -- which was welcomed by the Turkish government. Washington's request for guarantees for the safety of the YPG militia during the withdrawal remains an issue with Ankara fiercely rejecting any conditions. James Jeffrey, America's Syria pointman, was to hold talks in Ankara on Thursday with Turkish officials, Cavusoglu said. During their telephone call on Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Trump agreed to speed up the discussions under way between generals of both countries to establish the "security zone".

U.S. Sanctions Two Iran-Backed Militias Fighting in Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 24/19/The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions Thursday on two Iran-backed militias fighting in Syria in a move aimed at raising pressure on Tehran and the powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps.The Fatemiyoun Division, comprising Afghan nationals, and the Zaynabiyoun Brigade, consisting of Pakistanis, were placed on Treasury's financial blacklist, which aims to cut off their access to international financial networks to choke their operations. Both militias are recruited by the Revolutionary Guard, the Treasury said, from communities of refugees and migrants living inside Iran, and sent to fight for the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. "The brutal Iranian regime exploits refugee communities in Iran... and uses them as human shields for the Syrian conflict," Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in a statement. "Treasury's targeting of Iran-backed militias and other foreign proxies is part of our ongoing pressure campaign to shut down the illicit networks the regime uses to export terrorism and unrest across the globe." The Treasury also designated for sanctions Qeshm Fars Air, an airline it said was controlled by already-sanctioned Mahan Air, and Armenia-based Flight Travel LLC, which markets for Mahan. Qeshm Fars was a dormant carrier until 2017, when it was revived to deliver passengers and cargo to Damascus from Iran with two B747 aircraft on behalf of the Revolutionary Guard Corps. The carrier is being staffed by Mahan Air employees and receives Mahan technical support, the Treasury said.

Syria’s Manbij: Town Caught in Crosshairs of Political, Military Interests
Manbij (North Syria) – Kamal Sheikhou/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 24/19 /Perched on the curb of Al Amal Hospital in the north Syrian town of Manbij with his head hung low, a man in his 40s weeps for the loss of his wife and daughter killed in an ISIS suicide bombing. Sahar, Hussein’s 13-year-old daughter, and her mother’s frayed remains were placed in a casket, leaving behind nothing but a few photos and memories with the people they once loved. Hussein lost his family in Wednesday’s blast, a terrorist attack which claimed the lives of 15 victims, four of which were Americans. Speaking through a husked voice, Hussein recalls how Sahar’s mother had gone to pick her up from school not knowing that it would be the last time she does—ironically the mother had intended to pick their daughter from the nearby school fearing a deteriorating security situation in the town.
“I wish I had perished with them at the time of the explosion, I would be relieved at this torment,” said Hussein, adding that “what remains are cherished memories” -- memories and a few pictures that will serve as a reminder of the agony of parting for the remainder of his life.
The attack, which struck the heart of the city of Manbaj, caused the largest one-hit casualty for US troops operating in Syria since their deployment in 2015. The Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), fighting with the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces alliance, captured Manbij from ISIS. “Americans have ramped up patrols for local security checks after Turkish threats were escalated months ago,” said Abdeljil, a taxi driver who was near the blast site at the time of the attack. “They (Americans) are used to stop by for buying local foods and drinks. When they entered the restaurant, the suicide bomber blew himself up,” he said remembering the attack. The attack comes about a month after US President Donald Trump on December 19 announced his decision to pull out all 2,000 troops from Syria, declaring ISIS’ defeat there. More so, Manbij has emerged as a focal point of tensions after Trump’s decision which will remove American presence that has effectively deterred Turkey from attacking Kurdish forces in Syria.
Trump's announcement of a potential withdrawal of US troops was followed by other powers rushing to fill the coming void, including Turkey, Russia and the government of Iranian-backed Syrian regime head Bashar al-Assad. As various interests squabbled in recent months over political and military control of the town, lying near the Turkish border, ISIS seemed to be the sole actor that appeared to have been eliminated from the scene. A medic, working at the Al Amal Hospital, said the death toll of the ISIS attack was 15, including four Americans, two of which were soldiers, a civilian interpreter and a contractor, as well as two members of the local Manbij military council accompanying them. “Windows of the hospital and the doors were almost removed by the bomb blast (both the hospital and the site targeted are located in central Manbij). After a few moments, bodies and those wounded were being rushed in for medical attention. The entire team hurled to the emergency room,” one of the attending physicians told Asharq Al-Awsat. Manbij and its surroundings include bases and military headquarters for the US-led international coalition and have rarely come under attack after combatting and expelling ISIS in 2015. Abdul-Jabbar, 30, who owns a dairy products market, said the suicide bombing drove demand to the ground, causing him to temporarily close shop. “Market movement is weak and there is almost no selling and buying.”This comes after Turkey stepped up threats to carry out a long-threatened offensive to take Manbij from Kurdish control. Ankara has amassed some 8,000 fighters belonging to Turkish-allied Syrian extremist factions along the line of the nearby Sajur River, threatening to enter Manbij in a few days. Ibrahim, 57, who owns a gold shop and a money exchange shop, said that most of the city's residents are against the Turkish army taking over the town. “Areas controlled by Turkish-backed factions are notorious for pillaging, violence, and disorder, Manbij now is run effectively by its own people and its local security council,” Ibrahim explained.

Iraq Parliament Approves Largest-Ever Budget for 2019
Baghdad/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 24 January, 2019/Iraqi lawmakers on Thursday approved the government's 2019 budget, which at $111.8 billion is one of the oil-rich country's largest ever spending bills. It represents a nearly 45 percent increase from last year and awards even more money for public salaries, including those of the northern Kurdish region. Nearly 90 percent of the budget comes from oil revenues. Iraq expects to export 3.9 million barrels per day in 2019, including 250,000 bpd from the Kurdish region, at an average of $56 per barrel. The current price of crude sits at $63 per barrel. The deficit is expected to more than double to $23.1 billion, while investments increase to $27.8 billion. The draft bill was originally submitted to parliament in October but has been fiercely debated since then. MPs from provinces ravaged by the fight against the Islamic State group criticized it for not allocating enough reconstruction funds to their regions. Another debate raged over the share that would be allotted to the administratively autonomous Kurdish region. MPs had originally scheduled a session for 1:00 pm on Wednesday but delayed it to 7:00 pm and voted article by article, finishing just after midnight.
The government proposed $52 billion in salaries, pensions, and social security for state workers -- a 15-percent jump from 2018 and more than half the total budget. Notably, parliament passed a budget measure to fund salaries for the Kurdistan region's state workers and armed forces, the peshmerga. The budget also stipulates the Kurdish Regional Government must export 250,000 bpd of crude through state-owned companies and deposit the revenues in federal coffers.If it didn't, MP Sarkawt Shamsuddin told AFP, Baghdad would continue to pay salaries but would not disburse other funds to the Kurdish region.
"The good thing is public servants' salaries and peshmerga are not subject to political disputes," said Shamsuddin, representing the northeastern Kurdish city of Sulaymaniyah. Relations between Baghdad and Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish region, soured in 2017 after Kurdish authorities held an independence referendum. Last year's budget was approved by parliament in March. Parliament had also scheduled a vote on two of the five remaining empty cabinet posts in Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi's government but adjourned without holding it.

Arab League Decries Israeli Intention to Halt TIPH
Cairo- Sawsan Abu Hussein/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 24 January, 2019/The Arab League denounced what has been circulating in the Israeli media about an intention to halt the mission of the Temporary International Presence in Hebron (TIPH), following previous rejections to increase staff. This discloses the occupation's implicit intention to continue its crimes against Palestinians and stop the work of observers concerned in monitoring violations and aggressions Palestinians are going through, in addition to the systematic suppression practiced against more than 6,500 inmates in Israeli prisons. For instance, Palestinian inmates in Ofer prison has been subjected to unannounced raids, smashing of possessions, naked searches, verbal abuse, and the use of tear gas and rubber bullets. All this reflects Israeli insistence on violating the principles of international law and the resolutions on international legitimacy, particularly the Geneva Conventions of 1949. The Arab League's Assistant Secretary-General for Palestine and the Occupied Arab Territories, Saeed Abu Ali, stated Wednesday that the occupation’s approach to halt the mission of the TIPH challenges the international law and will.
He stressed that Israel's clear quest to Judaize the old city in Hebron and lay hands over more surrounding Palestinian territories aimed to instill the racist policies and violations of the occupation.

US Reiterates Its Support for Sarraj
Cairo - Khalid Mahmoud, Jamal Jawhar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 24 January, 2019/The United States became involved with security arrangements in the Libyan capital, Tripoli, after US Ambassador to Libya Peter Bodde met with Chairman of the Presidential Council, Fayez al-Sarraj, in an unannounced visit on Tuesday. In a statement issued after the meeting, Sarraj said the meeting comes within the framework of the consultation process between the two friendly countries. It indicated that the two discussed the latest political developments in Libya and the economic reform program launched by Sarraj in September. The US ambassador reiterated his country's support for what he described “the consensual approach of Sarraj and his government”, praising the positive results achieved on the security and economic levels, according to the statement. He also reiterated his country’s support for the democratic process sponsored by the United Nations and stressed the importance of the US-Libya strategic partnership against terrorism. Sarraj chaired the meeting of the presidential council of Government of National Accord (GNA) which discussed the security situation in southern Tripoli and accompanying security arrangements. The council, according to Sarraj's office, discussed also the procedures for implementing the security arrangements and working mechanisms between the security committee, the concerned ministries, and government bodies.On the other hand, members of the House of Representatives (Hor) of Fezzan province, called on all the people of the southern region to support the army forces and the military operation, which has recently begun to liberate the south and enforce the law. The members welcomed the efforts of the army forces to eliminate terrorist organizations and illegal armed groups that threaten the security of the country and the citizens. However, President of the High Council of State (HCS), Khaled al-Mishri described the national army forces in the south as “illegal” in public criticism of the military operation. Mishri stressed that his council only recognizes one Supreme Commander of the Libyan Army, Chairman of the Presidential Council, Fayez al-Sarraj, according to the 2015 Skhirat agreement established in Morocco under the auspices of the UN.
In other news, the Libyan naval forces denied Human Rights Watch's (HRW) accusations linking Coast Guard units to “human traffickers”. Spokesman for the Libyan Navy, Ayoub Qassim, stated that HRW and other similar organizations are trying to deform the Libyan government and its coastguards. Qassim addressed the accusations by saying the coast guard is a respected state institution and added that they will be more than glad to receive evidence from HRW for its accusations and bring those involved in such misconduct and crimes to justice. HRW accused in a report days ago the Libyan coastguards of mistreating illegal migrants, saying some of the guards were militia members and are now naval personnel. This comes after Palermo's mayor Loluca Orlando described Libya as an “open-air detention camp” for immigrants, which stirred anger in the country. Secretary-general of the Arab Organization for Human Rights in Libya (AOHR), Abdul Moneim al-Horr, responded to Orlando’s statement by stressing that Libya is only a transit country. He admitted that Libya has to protect the migrants, but its commitment depends “on the effort, not the desired result.”Horr believed that: “It is unreasonable to ask the Libyan authorities to protect migrants, when sometimes it is incapable of protecting its own citizens.”
An official source at the Anti-Illegal Immigration Agency in Tripoli said that the international community is holding Tripoli the responsibility for the illegal immigration, and overlooks the fact that Libya had already dealt with a lot in this issue and has been suffering for nearly seven years.
He went on to say that within its financial means, Libya was extremely generous with the influx of immigrants flowing from everywhere. "There may be abuses or suspicions about the extent to which funds are being spent on armed groups," the official said, declining to be named, however, Libya is being subjected to injustice because international parties only condemn the country without providing any support to contain this phenomenon from its African sources that need development assistance.

Morocco Busts ISIS-linked Terrorist Cell
Rabat - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 24 January, 2019/Morocco’s Central Bureau of Judicial Investigation (BCIJ) has arrested 13 people, whose ages range between 22 and 44, on suspicion of forming a cell linked to the ISIS terrorist group, the interior ministry announced Wednesday. During the raids, the authorities seized electronic devices, knives, masks, manuscripts promoting extremist ideology and a document in which the suspects have pledged allegiance to the ISIS leader, the ministry said in a statement. The suspects were propagating ISIS ideology and plotting terrorist attacks in the country, it said, adding that they have been remanded in custody for further investigation. The network’s arrest came only two weeks after the authorities broke up a three-member terrorist cell. The suspects ranged in age from 18 to 31. Since the Casablanca bombings in 2003, Morocco has adopted stringent counter-terrorism measures by breaking up several extremist cells and stopping potential attacks in France, Belgium, Denmark, and other states. In one of the most recent operations, Moroccan authorities have arrested a total of 22 people in connection with the murders of two Scandinavian tourists in mid-December. They include four main suspects who belonged to a cell inspired by ISIS ideology, but none of the four had contact with members of the terrorist organization in Syria or Iraq, Morocco's counter-terror chief Abdelhak Khiam told AFP earlier this week.

Amnesty Slams Iran's Mass Arrests in 2018
London- Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 24 January, 2019/Amnesty International said Thursday Iran arrested more than 7,000 people last year in what it called a "shameless campaign of repression" as the US released an American anchorwoman for Iranian state television held for days as a material witness. While Iranian officials and state media have widely condemned the arrest of Marzieh Hashemi of the broadcaster's English-language channel Press TV, the figures released by Amnesty highlight the widespread campaign of arrest and harassment those in the media face in the Islamic Republic. Even as Hashemi was released, Iran sentenced prominent whistleblower journalist Yashar Soltani to five years in prison after his series of exposes alleging massive corruption in land deals linked to Tehran's former mayor. Meanwhile, Iranian state TV continues to face criticism for airing statements from detainees made under duress, including two recent ones from labor activists Esmail Bakhshi and Sepideh Gholian who allegedly faced torture. Authorities detained both of them again this week. The Amnesty report said that among those arrested in 2018 were protesters, students, journalists, environmental activists, workers and human rights defenders. Some 50 detainees were media workers, of whom at least 20 "were sentenced to harsh prison or flogging sentences after unfair trials," the report said. At least 26 protesters were killed and nine others died in custody. "2018 will go down in history as a 'year of shame' for Iran," said Philip Luther, Amnesty's Middle East and North Africa research and advocacy director. "Iran's authorities sought to stifle any sign of dissent by stepping up their crackdown on the rights to freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly and carrying out mass arrests of protesters."Last year began with nationwide protests over Iran's deteriorating economy. Iran is in the grip of a financial crisis and has seen sporadic protests in recent months as officials try to downplay the effects of the newly restored US sanctions on Tehran. In Hashemi's case, she was detained by US federal agents on Jan. 13. She appeared at least twice before a US federal judge in Washington, and court papers said she would be released immediately after her testimony before a grand jury. Court documents did not include details on the criminal case in which she was named a witness.
Hashemi sent a message to supporters on Thursday after her release. "I have a lot of things to say about what I have suffered," she said in Farsi.

Iranian Diplomat Condemns Tehran’s 'Reckless' Operations
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 24 January, 2019/European countries have lost confidence in Tehran after detecting espionage and assassination plots, and they have provided evidence on Iran's activities that can not be easily refuted, stated Iran's former ambassador to Germany, Ali Magdi. Magdi criticized the interference of domestic parties in Iran’s foreign policy, pointing out that the European countries “face a dual Iranian policy.”In his first interview after returning to Iran, Magdi told ISNA that the European countries can’t easily prove the documents they have, however, their confidence and sense of security declined as a result of Iranian plans. The former ambassador reiterated that Iran’s foreign operations are damaging the country, and could lead to a lack of trust with European parties. Magdi was Iran's ambassador to Berlin, the most important trade partner with Tehran, for over four years between July 2014 and November 2018. The diplomat went on to say that European countries are working with Iran, but have no faith in the regime, adding that issues emerged between the two during this period. This is the first time an Iranian diplomat familiar with his country's policy in Europe holds influential Iranian figures responsible for recent European moves. When asked about the motives behind such Iranian plans, Magdi indicated that there are some internal parties who “believe” that these operations can secure the country’s national interests. However, he thinks that these measures do not strengthen Iran. The diplomat made the remarks as Tehran insists on rejecting the European charges of espionage while accusing certain parties of seeking to sabotage Iran's relations with the European countries. Earlier, the European Union announced a series of measures against Iran, including sanctions, named a unit of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence as a terrorist organization, and froze its assets in addition to the assets of two other men. This came in response to several plans in Denmark and France against Iranian opposition figures. Albania announced this month the expulsion of Iranian diplomats, on the grounds that they posed a threat to Albania's national security. The Netherlands has officially accused Iran's intelligence services of directing two political assassinations between 2015 and 2017, months after the Dutch government expelled two diplomats from the Iranian embassy and summoned the Iranian ambassador. Few days after the EU imposed sanctions, German authorities said they had arrested a German-Afghan military adviser on suspicion of spying for Iran. Iran denied Germany had summoned its charge d'affaires, saying he visited the German Foreign Ministry for another purpose at the request of the Iranian Embassy, and the claims on summoning him are "completely unfounded". Tehran also criticized Germany's decision to ban Mahan Air from its airports. The Foreign Ministry indicated that the ban is to safeguard its own national security, adding that the airline transports fighters and material to specific war zones in Syria.Magdi denied that the accusations against Iran, the arrest of an Iranian diplomat in Germany, and actions taken in Belgium, France, Denmark, and Albania had any link to the special purpose vehicle (SPV) which the Europeans promised to activate to help Tehran circumvent US sanctions. “I don’t believe in such analysis.”

Land Subsidence Threatens Iran
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 24 January, 2019/Fissures appear along roads while massive holes open up in the countryside, their gaping maws a visible sign from the air of something Iranian authorities now openly acknowledge: the area around Tehran is literally sinking.
Stressed by a 30-year drought and hollowed by excessive water pumping, the parched landscape around Iran's capital has begun to sink dramatically. Seen by satellite and on foot around the city, officials warn that what they call land subsidence poses a grave danger to a country where protests over water scarcity already have seen violence. "Land subsidence is a destructive phenomenon," said Siavash Arabi, a measurement expert at Iran's cartography department. "Its impact may not be immediately felt like an earthquake, but as you can see, it can gradually cause destructive changes over time." He said he can identify "destruction of farmland, the cracks of the earth's surface, damage to civilian areas in cities, wastewater lines, cracks in roads and damages to water and natural gas pipes."Tehran, which sits 1,200 meters above sea level against the Alborz Mountains on a plateau, has rapidly grown over the last 100 years to a sprawling city of 13 million people in its metropolitan area. All those people have put incredible pressure on water resources on a semi-arid plateau in a country that saw only 171 millimeters of rain last year. Over-reliance on ground aquifers has seen increasingly salty water pumped from below ground.
"Surface soil contains water and air. When you pump water from under the ground surface, you cause some empty space to be formed in the soil," Arabi told The Associated Press. "Gradually, the pressure from above causes the soil particles to stick together and this leads to sinking of the ground and formation of cracks."Rain and snow to recharge the underground aquifers have been in short supply. Over the past decade, Iran has seen the most prolonged and severe drought in more than 30 years, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization. An estimated 97 percent of the country has faced some level of drought, Iran's Meteorological Organization says. That has caused the sinkholes and fissures now seen around Tehran. Iranian authorities say they have measured up to 22 centimeters of annual subsidence near the capital, while the normal range would be only as high as 3 centimeters per year. Even higher numbers have been measured in other parts of the country. Some sinkholes formed in western Iran are as deep as 60 meters. Those figures are close to those found in a study by scientists at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam previously discussed by the journal Nature and accepted by the journal Remote Sensing of Environment. Using satellite images between 2003 and 2017, the scientists estimate the western Tehran plain is sinking by 25 centimeters a year.
Either way, the numbers are alarming to experts. "In European countries, even 4 millimeters of yearly subsidence is considered a crisis," Iranian environmental activist Mohammad Darvish said. The sinking can be seen in Tehran's southern Yaftabad neighborhood, which sits close to farmland and water wells on the edge of the city. Cracks run down walls and below windows, and waterpipes have ruptured. Residents fear poorly built buildings may collapse. The sinking also threatens vital infrastructure, like Tehran's International Airport. German scientists estimate that land under the airport is sinking by 5 centimeters a year.
Tehran's oil refinery, a key highway, automobile manufacturing plants and railroads also all sit on sinking ground, said Ali Beitollahi, a Ministry of Roads and Transportation official. Some 2 million people live in the area, he said. Masoud Shafiee, head of Iran's cartography department, also acknowledged the danger. "Rates (for subsidence) are very high and in many instances it's happening in densely populated areas," Shafiee told the AP. "It's happening near sensitive infrastructures like airports, which we consider a top priority." Geopolitics play a role in Iran's water crisis. Since the country's 1979 revolution, Iran has sought to become self-sufficient across industries to thwart international sanctions. That has included agriculture and food production. The problem, however, comes in inefficient water use on farms, which represents over 90 percent of the country's water usage, experts say. Already, the drought and water crisis has fed into the sporadic unrest Iran has faced over the last year. In July, protests around Khorramshahr, some 650 kilometers southwest of Tehran, saw violence as residents complained of salty, muddy water coming out of their taps amid the yearslong drought. The unrest there only compounds the wider unease felt across Iran as it faces an economic crisis sparked by President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw America from Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers.

France to Announce New Trade Mechanism with Iran Soon
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 24 January, 2019/French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian announced Wednesday that a new trade mechanism with Iran will be ready “within days.”European-backed system to facilitate non-dollar trade with Iran is aimed at circumventing US sanctions.Diplomats have told Reuters the European Union is set to officially launch the mechanism this month, but the so-called special purpose vehicle (SPV) will not operate for several months because technical details still need to be worked out. The SPV “should be implemented in the coming days”, Jean-Yves Le Drian told the French parliament’s foreign affairs committee. “It will work as a sort of clearing house that will allow in euros for Iran to benefit from some of its oil resources and at the same time buy essential products from the main three main (European) partners,” Le Drian said. Under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Iran restricted its declared civilian nuclear power program, widely seen in the West as a front for developing the means to make atomic bombs, in exchange for an end to international sanctions against it. To circumvent renewed US sanctions imposed after Washington pulled out of the deal, the SPV was conceived as a possible way to help match Iranian oil and gas exports against purchases of EU goods, an effective barter arrangement. However, those ambitions appear to have been toned down with diplomats saying the SPV could realistically only be used for smaller trade that might be tolerated by the Trump administration, for example humanitarian or farm products.

Global Fatwa Index: Terror Fatwas Focus on Abolishing Patriotism
Cairo- Waleed Abdurrahman/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 24 January, 2019/The Global Fatwa Index revealed that 100% of religious doctrines issued by terror groups call for the destruction of states and abolishment of nations and patriotic values, exploiting religious scriptures to brainwash youth into recruitment and staging terror attacks. The Index, calculated by the Egyptian Fatwa Center after surveying some 300 fatwas released by extremist organizations, shows that false fatwas issued by terrorist groups conclusively call for the “destruction of national values” and heavily rely on wrongly invoking the Haram- duty absolutes in Islam. ISIS, in a 100 percent of its fatwas called for the “obliteration” of nations and ending the idea of “states, borders, and nations.” The Global Fatwa Index, after analyzing ISIS rhetoric on the topic of homeland, stressed that the group is keen to “blur the meaning of patriotism so that it can inculcate its malicious ideology into the hearts of its followers.” In the meantime, the Global Fatwa Index said that al-Qaeda's literature referred to nationalism in a matter equivocal to infidelity. Al-Qaeda rhetoric focused on dismantling the concept of a homeland, considering 80% of the time patriots as infidels. Most terror groups are highly expansionist and view all land as endowed religiously to their authority. Al-Shabab and the Muslim Brotherhood, both of which are designated terror groups, released Fatwas nearly identical to that released by ISIS and al-Qaeda. For the Brotherhood, the homeland is the property of the group and cannot exist outside the host of fatwas the group issues. Overall, the Index called for the need for religious awareness worldwide and promoted a shift away from conservative means of teaching religious affairs and indoctrination and closer to a method incorporating dialogue and critical analysis when interpreting religion in modern days.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 24-25/19
What is More Important than Pompeo’s Reassurances
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 24/19
One understands that there are differences in how two opposing radical wings of America’s two major political parties view its global role. It is obvious also that those two wings have different approaches to challenges and problems with America itself.
Some years ago, Americans, Middle Easterners and, indeed, the peoples of the whole world, were introduced to the principles set out by former US President Barack Obama. These include his Affordable Care Act (ACA) - dubbed Obamacare – that became a law in 2010, and his famous “Cairo Speech” in 2009 just before what became known as “The Arab Spring”. Then, after the political earthquake that handed Donald Trump the keys to the White House in November 2016, new policies and approaches began to emerge at every level and of every kind, towards friends and foes.
There could not have been more contradictions between the new administration and its predecessor; namely, between one that represents the right wing of the Republican Party’s Right and the left wing of the Democratic Party’s Left! Thus, it is both important and worthy of profound study to have two prominent senior figures within the Trump administration embark on a Middle Eastern tour, and make stops in pivotal capitals against a catastrophic regional backdrop caused, to a large extent, by Obama’s policies.
On a positive note, sending Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – an ex-director of the CIA – and John Bolton, the National Security Advisor and one of the “hawks” in the “neo-cons” era, may reflect a serious commitment from President Trump in dealing with the problems of a very sensitive region, where for several years now, many convictions have hit the ground, and many undoubted “Cold War” givens have collapsed.
I guess many Middle East observers in Washington are today aware of the significant change in the public mood towards the US inside the region. It is a change from the absolute and long-established trust to loud questions, if not outright doubt. This reality is, perhaps, what has alerted the Trump administration to move, and try somehow to deal with a worrying situation.
Obviously, the “Syrian case” has been an extremely important nexus, as we have witnessed in Syria – in particular – unprecedented out bidding, interventions and maneuvers in the history of the Middle East. Consequently, the debacle in Syria has unearthed during the last 7 years a variety of earth-shattering phenomena, including:
- Intensifying the Sunni – Shiite conflict, turning it into an open war, that is now raging outside Syria.
- Redefining the priorities towards Israel; more so when Iran’s henchmen regard fighting “takfiris” – whom they claim are backed by Israel and the West – takes precedence even over fighting Israel itself!
- Redefining Arab identity and Arab patriotism. Bashar Assad claimed a couple of years ago that “the land belongs to those who fight for it not those who live on it!”, in his defense of Iraqi, Lebanese, Iranian and Afghan militias engaged in destroying Syria’s cities and villages and displacing their populations.
- Unleashing secessionist aspirations of all kinds, led by the Kurdish “independence” dream in northern Syria, as well the rise of calls for sectarian and ethnically-based “federalisms”.
- Complicating regional calculations connected to “creative” or “organized” chaos, which various major players sought to impose on Syria, and eventually, the whole region. The Kurdish issue –particularly, Washington’s unreserved support of Kurdish “autonomy” – has been at a certain stage, a major factor in bringing together Iran and Turkey. Another factor has been Russia’s tacit threat to Turkey after the hatter’s shooting down a Russian fighter-bomber in 2015; after which, Ankara changed its position towards Syria, and joined the Astana peace process at the expense of the UN’s Geneva peace process.
During his tour, Pompeo reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to its “friends” in the Middle East. His announcements, as well as Bolton’s well-known stances, have come with calling for an international meeting in the Polish capital Warsaw scheduled on February 13th and 14th to strengthen the future of security and peace in the Middle East. Topping the agenda, is confronting Iran’s influence and destabilizing actions and continuous interference in the affairs of the Gulf Arab states.
No doubt, this is a very encouraging sign.
However, it is worth mentioning that the Atlantic Council, based in Washington DC, would be hosting on February 12 a conference commemoration the Khomeinist Revolution’s 40th anniversary. This event, organized by Barbara Slavin, the well-known pro-Tehran Al Monitor journalist, will be attended by several figures most of whom are supporters of the Tehran regime, headed by Dr. Mohammed Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister and one of the leading founders and sponsors of its US “lobby”.
With this in mind, I feel that confidence building requires less talk and more solid actions; and here lies the greatest regional challenge.
The big picture remains unclear, and interests on all levels seem to be contradictory. Indeed, while there is a candid current with the Trump administration that is actively and sincerely opposed to Iran’s expansionist ambitions, its disregard of other explosive issues that have served Tehran well – namely, in the Palestinian front – has knowingly or unknowingly been serving the Iranian leadership.
Moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, for example, has been an invaluable service to Iran’s regional project, which may have significantly compensated Tehran many of the negative effects of American sanctions. The ambiguity surrounding Washington’s position towards the Kurds of Syria has confused Washington’s relations with Ankara, and has allowed Tehran to win over the Turks in the Syrian arena, and may be the Iraqi arena as well.
So, what is required and expected from Washington is more than promises.
The Middle East expects solid and practical actions that connect the various complicated crises, and recognizes “the cause” and “the effect”.

Opposing China's Dangerous Ambitions
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/January 24/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13605/china-ambitions
Admiral John Richardson is apparently worried about a lack of communication. Communication is not the problem. The problem is that Chinese generals and admirals have been and continue to be hostile, belligerent, and bellicose.
"We do not want war. This is how you prevent it. Remember, show overwhelming power not indecision or weakness. Some Chinese will read the smoke signals correctly." — Arthur Waldron, University of Pennsylvania.
The best way to avoid conflict in the Taiwan Strait is to make it clear to Beijing that America will defend Taiwan.
In the first half of 2012, the U.S., despite firm obligations to defend the Philippines, did nothing when China took over Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. When Chinese generals and admirals saw Washington's failure to act, they turned the heat on other Philippine reefs and islets, went after Japan's islands in the East China Sea, and began reclaiming and militarizing features in the Spratly chain. Feebleness only emboldens Chinese aggression. There will be no good endings in Asia until Washington disabuses Beijing of the arrogant belief that it can take whatever it demands.
The sharp downturn in ties between the world's two most fearsome militaries was evident when America's highest naval officer, Chief of Naval Operations Admiral John Richardson, went to Beijing this month. Chinese officers were ready for Richardson: they issued hostile words, especially about U.S. relations with Taiwan. In response, CNO Richardson stuck to Washington's decades-old script of cooperation.
It is time for American policymakers to change that script by, among other things, dropping themes of engagement, introducing notions of reciprocity, and showing resolve of their own.
Richardson struck an upbeat note as he left China on his second official visit as America's top admiral. "I very much appreciate the hospitality I received in China," he tweeted on January 16. "I had some great discussions with my counterparts and I look forward to strengthening our relationship as we move forward."
The admiral's words were in sharp contrast to those of the Chinese counterparts. They threatened military action against the United States. Moreover, Global Times, the tabloid controlled by the Communist Party's People's Daily, in an editorial, made veiled threats directed at Richardson. "Beijing needs to take practical action to help the U.S. correct its vision," the paper noted, after referring to military action to enforce Beijing's expansive territorial claims. "China must have the ability to make rivals pay unbearable costs."
The mismatch in the tone of the American and Chinese messaging suggest that something might possibly be wrong. For a start, something definitely seems wrong at the top of the People's Liberation Army. Twice last month, senior Chinese officers publicly urged unprovoked attacks on the U.S. Navy. In the second of the outbursts, on January 20, Rear Admiral Luo Yuan said he wanted to use Dong Feng-21D and Dong Feng-26 ballistic missiles to sink two aircraft carriers and create 10,000 American "casualties."
Although these bellicose statements do not represent official policy, they can nonetheless be seen as reflecting thinking in senior officer ranks. In any event, they should be deeply troubling.
The proper American response was not Richardson's "I look forward to continuing our dialog as we seek common ground and opportunities for cooperation." Richardson's response should have been, "I am cancelling my trip to China."Richardson, prior to the China trip, defended his visit: "A routine exchange of views is essential, especially in times of friction, in order to reduce risk and avoid miscalculation. Honest and frank dialogue can improve the relationship in constructive ways, help explore areas where we share common interests, and reduce risk while we work through our differences."
"Common interests"? We hear not only unacceptably belligerent words from Luo and others; we have been seeing, and still see, dangerous Chinese actions in the global commons.
On September 30, the Lanzhou, a Chinese destroyer, came within 45 yards of the USS Decatur as it crossed the bow of the American warship near Gaven Reef in the South China Sea. The Decatur had to swerve to avoid a collision. The U.S. Navy diplomatically called the Lanzhou's maneuverings "unsafe and unprofessional." Despite the risky conduct — and despite Beijing's denial of a requested Hong Kong port call for the USS Wasp for October — the U.S. Navy sought permission for the Ronald Reagan Strike Group to pay a port call in Hong Kong, a special administrative region of People's Republic of China, just weeks after the Decatur-Lanzhou incident.
James Fanell, a leading commentator on U.S. Navy interactions with China, told Gatestone that the port-call request undermined President Trump's tougher policy line: "What seems clear is that the PRC has successfully convinced generations of Pentagon leaders that 'mil-to-mil' relations are important for promoting security, despite the overwhelming empirical evidence proving otherwise." Fanell, who as a captain served as the chief intelligence officer for the Pacific Fleet, is correct about the evidence. Over time, the Chinese military has conducted a series of dangerous intercepts of the U.S. Navy and Air Force on and over the South China Sea and East China Sea. Admiral Richardson is apparently worried about a lack of communication. Communication is not the problem. The problem is that Chinese generals and admirals have been and continue to be hostile, belligerent, and bellicose.
Moreover, no amount of talking is going to make these flag officers less so. In fact, American efforts at dialogue are making matters worse. U.S. Navy admirals may think they are acting responsibly and constructively, but the Chinese are obviously perceiving weakness and acting accordingly. The most likely explanation for Luo's comments last month is that he thought America can be intimidated into leaving the region.
General Li Zuocheng, a member of the Communist Party's Central Military Commission, also attempted intimidation. He told Richardson in Beijing that the People's Liberation Army would bear "any cost" to prevent foreign interference in Taiwan matters.
After leaving China, Richardson, to his great credit, suggested sending a carrier strike group through the Taiwan Strait. "We don't really see any kind of limitation on whatever type of ship could pass through those waters," he told reporters in Tokyo.
The next step for the U.S. is to drive a carrier through the Strait, as the Navy last did in 2007 after the Chinese denied a port call in Hong Kong.
Why stop with just one carrier strike group? Arthur Waldron of the University of Pennsylvania told Gatestone that, to make a lasting impression on Beijing, the U.S. should arrange a Taiwan Strait passage with not only the supercarrier Ronald Reagan but also a flotilla of "some Japanese subs and the Izumo; any British, French, or Australian ships available; and the Taiwan navy shadowing it." He also recommends sending along planes to add to the effect.
"We do not want war," Waldron wrote in a message to defense professionals last week. "This is how you prevent it. Remember, show overwhelming power not indecision or weakness. Some Chinese will read the smoke signals correctly."
The best way to avoid conflict in the Taiwan Strait, as Waldron suggests, is to make it clear to Beijing that America will defend Taiwan. In the last two months, Beijing has been making threats to invade. Unfortunately, as Joseph Bosco, a former China desk officer in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, points out, the best Washington can do at the moment is issue "mushy diplomatese" that the Chinese can interpret as a lack of American resolve.
"You can bet," Bosco told Gatestone last week, "China's calculations would change dramatically if President Trump or Secretary Pompeo or the new SecDef or John Bolton were to utter these words publicly to Beijing: 'We will defend Taiwan under any circumstances.'" That would, he said, "effectively reconstitute the 1954 U.S.-Taiwan mutual defense treaty" and "alter the strategic dynamic in Washington's and Taipei's favor."
Some — actually a lot — of "altering" is absolutely necessary, and now is not a moment too soon. In the first half of 2012, the U.S., despite firm obligations to defend the Philippines, did nothing when China took over Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. When Chinese generals and admirals saw Washington's failure to act, they turned the heat on other Philippine reefs and islets, went after Japan's islands in the East China Sea, and began reclaiming and militarizing features in the Spratly Islands chain. Feebleness only emboldens Chinese aggression.
There will be no good endings in Asia until Washington disabuses Beijing of the arrogant belief that it can take whatever it demands.
How to do that? Perhaps, in addition to sailing through the Taiwan Strait, Admiral Richardson can arrange for a few U.S. Navy vessels to make a port call on the island and linger for a while.
*-Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and a Gatestone Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

To the Secretary General of Muslim World League
A. Z. Mohamed/Gatestone Institute/January 24/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13581/mohammad-al-issa
Dr. Mohammad Bin Abdulkarim Al-Issa is special. His thoughts are definitely constructive and pro-peace. One of his wishes, Al-Issa said, is that the prospective meeting in Jerusalem will be "a step toward what will some day be a more broad cross-faith acceptance of different faiths." As a previous Minister of Justice in Saudi Arabia, he speculated that the time will come when people of different religions can go to any country, including Saudi Arabia, and publicly practice their faith.
One might agree with Al-Issa when he says that extremists attempt "to hijack the true religion, specifically through poisoning the minds of some young people with the idea of clash of civilizations and embedding the overstated idea of conspiracy." There is, nevertheless, plain as day, the role played by that set of Quranic verses, hadiths, and the resultant interpretations and fatwas that regrettably still fuel a hatred of non-Muslims and "unbelievers."
A project that the new Saudi Arabian crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman, might consider is assembling a panel to see if anything in the hadith might be inauthentic.
The question facing many Muslims and their religious leaders who have similar attitudes is: will they be able to begin directly discussing the root causes of Muslims' extremism and hatred of non-Muslims?
Dr. Mohammad Bin Abdulkarim Al-Issa, Secretary General of Muslim World League, has been one of the most outstanding Muslim leaders; he has recognized the brutality of the Holocaust and criticized any denial of it.
Last January, he wrote a letter to the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. In the letter, he labeled the Holocaust as "an incident that shook humanity to the core, and created an event whose horrors could not be denied or underrated by any fair-minded or peace-loving person."
In April, he attended an event held in New York by the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, venerating Muslims who helped Jews during the Holocaust. At the event, he emphasized the need for Holocaust education in the Muslim world.
Early in October, he delivered a speech at the "2nd Conference on Cultural Rapprochement between the United States of America and the Muslim World," in New York City.
Al-Issa, in his speech, called on the conference participants to form a delegation of Muslim, Christian, and Jewish religious leaders to visit Jerusalem to help settle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Al-Issa emphasized that the convoy should be formed of "independent peace messengers... 'independent' of any political affiliation."Al-Issa is a hero. His thoughts are definitely constructive and pro-peace. Sadly, however, they may exaggerate the role of religious faith in promoting peace and minimize its role in inciting hatred and conflict.
One of his wishes, Al-Issa said, is that the prospective meeting in Jerusalem will be "a step toward what will some day be a more broad cross-faith acceptance of different faiths." As a previous Minister of Justice in Saudi Arabia, he speculated that the time will come when people of different religions can go to any country, including Saudi Arabia, and publicly practice their faith.
The time when non-Muslims in Saudi Arabia can openly practice their own faith, however, will come only when Muslim religious leaders, such as Al-Issa, openly say that what makes this time remote is a set of many verses of the Quran and the hadith, that disseminate hatred of non-Muslims and label them unbelievers (see for example the related fatwa by the Permanent Committee of the General Presidency of Scholarly Research and Ifta, Saudi Arabia)
Publicly admitting this difficult fact is the first step needed to be done by courageous, outspoken advocates of "interfaith" dialogue such as Al-Issa. Even he, however, still seems hesitant to do it.
One project, in fact, that the new Saudi Arabian crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), might consider is assembling a panel to see if anything in the hadith, assembled during two hundred years after the death of the Islamic Prophet Muhammad, might possibly be inauthentic.
In his speech at the conference, Al-Issa disappointingly repeated the false claim that religions, including Islam, are not extreme by nature and that the problem lies in extremists who defame their religion and slander their religious texts:
"We have said and still saying today that great religions are not extreme by nature; and at the same time, there is no religion that is free of extremists."
One might agree with Al-Issa when he says that extremists attempt "to hijack the true religion, specifically through poisoning the minds of some young people with the idea of clash of civilizations and embedding the overstated idea of conspiracy." There is, nevertheless, plain as day, the role played by that set of Quranic verses, hadiths, and the resultant interpretations and fatwas that regrettably still fuel a hatred of non-Muslims and "disbelievers."
One reads frequently, for example, about sexual assaults on non-Muslims in which the assailant explains that his attack is permitted by the Quran, for instance here, here, here and here.
Dr. Al-Issa also refers to what he calls "intellectual holes":
"The chief role of this conference [Cultural Rapprochement Conference] is to keep extremists from taking any advantage of any intellectual holes that they can use to promote their extremist ideologies and have the opinions of well-established scholars." (Emphasis added)
There may well be "intellectual holes," but there is also the set of religious literature that extremists quote to promote their ideology and to spread hatred of Christians, Jews and other "unbelievers."
Al-Issa's description of extremists' beliefs is, unfortunately, identical to those enshrined in Quranic verses and hadiths. Compare his thinking that extremists "believe that they solely are privileged with the absolute truth" with what the Quran notes:
"And whoever desires other than Islam as religion - never will it be accepted from him, and he, in the Hereafter, will be among the losers." (Quran 3:85, Sahih International translation)
Many Muslims -- not only Islamists -- if they believe these Quranic verses, could easily regard their religion the same way extremists do, especially the way Al-Issa has described them: "They [extremists] have further reached the miserable state of belief that anyone disagreeing with them is an enemy of the Creator."
Quranic verses such as those above, as well as several others that extremists quote to promote their extremist ideology, are what the manifesto, "Against New Anti-Semitism," published in the newspaper Le Parisien on April 21, asks to "be [denounced as] outdated by Islamic authorities, as were the incoherencies of the Bible and the Catholic anti-Semitism abolished by Vatican II, so that no believer can rely on a sacred text to commit a crime."
No lesser a person than Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, a practicing Muslim, has for years called for religious reforms.
Some of his co-religionists, he said, were becoming "a source of worry, fear, danger, murder and destruction to all the world... a religious revolution" is needed, he said.
The clerics, however, presumably nervous about having their power diluted, pushed back.
Al-Issa and the World Muslim League have not publicly commented on the French manifesto. One understands how extremely difficult it must have been for Al-Issa and the League to read the manifesto or to show some empathic understanding of it. All the same, he preferred to keep silent rather than to comment. The question facing many Muslims and their religious leaders who have similar views is: Will they be able to begin directly discussing the root causes of Muslims' extremism and hatred of non-Muslims?
Many Muslims worldwide are hoping they do, but governments and intellectuals will need to back these efforts with work, determination, and unfaltering support.
*A. Z. Mohamed is a Muslim born and raised in the Middle East.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Time to Tell the Truth about the Palestinian Issue
Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/January 24/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13615/palestinian-issue-truth
The United Nations devotes more resources -- time, money and votes -- to the Palestinian issue than to the claims of all the other oppressed groups combined. Some of these other groups cannot even get a hearing at the United Nations.
The suffering of the Palestinians, which does not compare to the suffering of other groups, has been largely self-inflicted. They could have had a state, with no occupation, if they had accepted the Peel Commission Report of 1937, the United Nations Partition Plan of 1947, the Clinton-Barak offer of 2000-2001, the Ehud Olmert offer of 2008. They rejected all these offers -- responding with violence and terrorism -- because they would have required them to accept Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people -- something they are unwilling to do even today.
The Palestinian leadership has always wanted there not to be a Jewish state more than they wanted there to be a Palestinian state.
Michele Alexander claims that there is legal discrimination against Israeli Arabs. The reality is that Israeli Arabs have more rights than Arabs anywhere in the Muslim world. They vote freely, have their own political parties, speak openly against the Israeli government and are beneficiaries of affirmative action in Israeli universities. She says there are "streets for Jews only," which is a categorical lie.
The front page of the New York Times Sunday Review featured one of the most biased, one-sided, historically inaccurate, ignorant and bigoted articles ever published by that venerable newspaper. Written by Michele Alexander, it is entitled: "Time to Break the Silence on Palestine," as if the Palestinian issue has not been the most over-hyped cause on campuses, in the United Nations and in the media. There is no silence to break. What must be broken is the bigotry of those who elevate the Palestinian claims over those of the Kurds, the Syrians, the Iranians, the Chechnyans, the Tibetans, the Ukrainians, and many other more deserving groups who truly suffer from the silence of the academy, the media and the international community. The United Nations devotes more resources -- time, money and votes -- to the Palestinian issue than to the claims of all the other oppressed groups combined. Some of these other groups cannot even get a hearing at the United Nations.
The suffering of the Palestinians, which does not compare to the suffering of other groups, has been largely self-inflicted. They could have had a state, with no occupation, if they had accepted the Peel Commission Report of 1937, the United Nations Partition Plan of 1947, the Clinton-Barak offer of 2000-2001, the Ehud Olmert offer of 2008. They rejected all these offers -- responding with violence and terrorism -- because they would have required them to accept Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people -- something they are unwilling to do even today. I know, because I have asked President Mahmoud Abbas that question directly, and he has said no. The Palestinian leadership has always wanted there not to be a Jewish state more than they wanted there to be a Palestinian state.
The Palestinian issue is not "one of the great moral challenges of our time," as the article insists. It is a complex, nuanced, pragmatic problem, with fault on all sides. It could be solved, if Palestinian leaders were prepared to accept the "painful compromises" that Israeli leaders have already agreed to accept. Had the early Palestinian leadership -- which collaborated with Hitler -- not, with all the surrounding Arab states, attacked Israel the moment it declared statehood, it would have a viable state. Had Hamas used the resources it received when Israel ended its occupation of the Gaza Strip in 2005 to build schools, hospitals and industry, instead of using these resources to construct rocket launchers and terror tunnels, it could have become a "Singapore on the Sea" instead of the poverty-stricken enclave its leaders have turned it into. The Palestinian leadership -- Hamas as well as the Palestinian Authority -- bears at least as much responsibility for the plight of the Palestinians as do the Israelis.
Israel is not without some fault, but the one-sided blame-it-all-on-Israel approach taken by Alexander is ahistorical and bigoted. One illustration of the author's bias is her absurd claim that "many students are fearful of expressing support for Palestinian rights" because of "McCarthyite tactics" employed by pro-Israel groups. Has Alexander ever actually been on a campus? Well, I have taught and lectured at hundreds of campuses, and I can attest that there is no international cause that is given more attention -- far more than it deserves in comparison with other more compelling causes -- than the Palestinians. It is pro-Israel students who are silenced out of fear of being graded down, denied recommendations and been shunned by peers. Efforts have been made to prevent me from speaking on several campuses, despite the fact that I advocate a two-state solution to the conflict.
Alexander claims that there is legal discrimination against Israeli Arabs. The reality is that Israeli Arabs have more rights than Arabs anywhere in the Muslim world. They vote freely, have their own political parties, speak openly against the Israeli government and are beneficiaries of affirmative action in Israeli universities. The only right they lack is to turn Israel into another Muslim state governed by Sharia law, instead of the nation state of Jewish people governed by secular democratic law. That is what the new nation state law does when it denies Arabs "the right of self-determination in Israel."
Alexander condemns "Palestinian homes being bulldozed" without mentioning that these are the homes of terrorists who murder Jewish babies, women and men. She bemoans casualties in Gaza -- which she calls "occupied," even though every Israeli soldier and settler left in 2005 -- without mentioning that many of these casualties were human shields from behind whom Hamas terrorists fire rockets at Israeli civilians. She says there are "streets for Jews only," which is a categorical lie. There are roads in the disputed territories that are limited to cars with Israeli license plates -- for security reasons. But these roads are open to all Israelis, including Muslims, Druze, Christians, Zoroastrians, and people of no faith. But as Martin Luther King Jr. (MLK) reminded us, when you repeat a lie often enough people believe it.
The most outrageous aspect of Alexander's screed is her claim that MLK inspired her to write it. MLK was a staunch Zionist, who famously said: "When people criticize Zionists, they mean Jews. You're talking anti-Semitism." MLK would have been appalled at Alexander's one-sided attack on the nation state of the Jewish people and especially on her misuse of his good name to support anti-Israel bigotry.
*Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law Emeritus at Harvard Law School and author of The Case against the Democratic House Impeaching Trump, Hot Books, January 2, 2019, and a Distinguished Senior Fellow of Gatestone Institute.
*This article first appeared in The Hill.
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© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Analysis/In Its Battle Against Iran, Israel Is Dependent on Russia's Plans for Syria
زفي بارئيل من الهآرتس: إسرائيل في معركتها مع إيران هي تعتمد على خطط روسيا في سوريا
Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/January 24/19
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Officials in Washington, Jerusalem, Damascus and Tehran are all anxiously awaiting the meeting scheduled for Wednesday between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. The intensive talks that U.S. President Donald Trump and his aides conducted this week with Erdogan and Ankara’s road map for resolving the question of control of the Kurdish areas will be the focus of the talks in Russia. But the latest skirmishes between Israel and Iranian forces and their missile exchange are also expected to be on the two leaders’ busy agenda.
Israel has recently benefited from a relatively free hand toward the Iranian forces operating in Syria. Trump gives his backing to Israel’s military activity as part of his joint strategy with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to minimize the Iranian presence in Syria, and even Russia responded rather meekly to the latest strikes. But the amount of leeway Israel can expect will depend not only on the upturn in Jerusalem’s relationship with Moscow, but also on Russia’s success in advancing its diplomatic program.
Israel has the upper hand militarily, as long as Russia neither applies the brakes nor aids Damascus with its advanced anti-aircraft missile systems in Syria, such as the S-300 and S-400. Without its own air power in Syria, Iran depends on the Syrian systems for its defense. For now, the missiles fired at Israel appear to have been a limited response that Iran presumably won’t want to expand, mainly due to fear that Israel could strike Syrian institutions, leading President Bashar Assad and Russia to treat Iran’s presence as a strategic risk.
At the same time, it is clear that airstrikes alone cannot drive out the Iranian forces. And if that is the goal, there’s no avoiding the kind of ground operation that Israel presumably doesn’t want to chance.
The upshot is that any Israeli military operation to eradicate the Iranian forces depends on Russia, which up to now has shown little interest or ability to influence Iran’s actions. Moscow hasn’t even been able to make good on its promise to move Iran’s forces away from the Israeli border.
According to public statements from Russia and Syria, the withdrawal of the foreign forces must be preceded by a comprehensive agreement on the structure of the new government in Syria; defense of the Syrian-Turkish border from Kurdish militias and militants from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK; and on the roles of Russia, Turkey and Iran in stabilizing the new government in Damascus.
If and when such agreements are reached, Syria may request the withdrawal of all foreign forces, including those of Russia, Turkey and Iran, and to demand Russian and international guarantees to defend its sovereignty, including against Israeli attacks.
That scenario is a distant one. Ankara and Washington haven’t reached an agreement on the Kurds; Turkey refuses to accept the U.S. demand that it refrain from strikes in the northern Kurdish-populated areas east of the Euphrates River. The United States is prepared to pressure the Kurds to get rid of their heavy weapons, on condition that Turkey agrees to protect them. That formula is unacceptable to Ankara, which is aware that it can get more from Washington if Trump insists on withdrawing U.S. forces from Syria.
Russia is keen on seeing Assad resume full control of Syria. But for that to happen, Moscow and Damascus must retake the rebel enclaves in Idlib province. Ankara received a deadline extension from Russia to reach an agreement with the rebels, so far without success.
Iran has been forced into a minor role, mainly because the reimposition of sanctions has increased Russia’s economic leverage over Tehran. Moscow is unlikely to rush to Iran’s defense in Syria as long as the escalation with Israel doesn’t threaten Assad’s regime.
Israel might think that the warming relations among a number of Arab states – such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which reopened their embassies in Damascus, as well as Egypt’s support for Assad and Russia’s hopes to lend Arab and international legitimacy to Assad – may help in freezing out Iran. But that could turn out to be more of a wish than a diplomatic program.
Syria didn’t cut ties with Iran even when it was a member of the Arab League, and it doesn’t view the renewal of relations with Arab states as having to come at the price of its relationship with Iran. In fact, a continued Iranian presence in Syria could be a bargaining chip for Assad that will enable him to secure control over Lebanon as well. Israel would find it hard to counter the Iranian presence in Syria under such a scenario, and be forced to “settle for” limited tactical skirmishes.

Opinion/The War That Will Decide Israel’s Future Won’t Involve Airstrikes, Tanks or Missiles
 تشاك فريليش من الهآرتس: الحرب التي ستقرر مستقبل إسرائيل لن تشمل غارات جوية أو دبابات أو صواريخ
Chuck Freilich/Haaretz/January 24/19
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We have 30 years before enlightened Israel sinks into poor and illiberal darkness. This time, the threat is a militant religious fundamentalism of our own.
In recent years, many among Israel’s secular public, the majority of the population, have come to accept the contention put forward by the religious parties and others, that the ultra-Orthodox Jewish population cannot be forced to serve in the IDF, study the core school curriculum, participate in the labor force and accept gender, ethnic and religious equality.
Instead, they maintain, what is needed is patience and tolerance in order to provide for the gradual "integration" of the Haredim into Israel’s broader society.
To be sure, some progress has been made. Over 20% of young Haredi men now serve in the IDF and more and more young male and female Haredim are pursuing academic educations, though dropout rates are high. The percentage of Haredi women who work is now similar to the general population, a significant achievement, and they give birth at later ages, possibly presaging a future decline in the extraordinary Haredi fertility rates.
In practice, however, the efforts to integrate the Haredim into Israeli society have failed woefully. The "tents of Torah" continue to be more attractive than IDF tents and nearly 80% of Haredi men continue to dodge military service, even though special units have been established for them, they serve for shorter periods of time and a significant part of their service is devoted to providing them with the skills they should have gained in school.
Moreover, only half of Haredi males work, a dramatic decrease since the 1970s, many in low-income jobs, and the result is a deeply impoverished population that lives at the expense of others, i.e. the secular majority.
The integration approach has numerous other "accomplishments," such as, growing gender separation in the IDF, despite the special units established for the Haredim; new academic institutions established just for them and gender separation in the special programs for Haredim in the longstanding - and supposedly co-ed - institutions; separate rooms for Haredi employees in many places of employment; separate beaches, swimming pools and media; and in Mea Shearim in Jerusalem, and in Bet Shemesh, even gender-segregated sidewalks. Disturbances have broken out on El Al planes when Haredi males were asked to sit next to women.
Proponents of "integration" continue to press their cause, nevertheless. 80% of the people, they argue, agree on 80% of the issues, and if we just exhibit further patience and tolerance, "integration" will succeed. It is, however, precisely the 20% that differentiates between an enlightened society and one that is not, and the differences they reflect must not be glossed over.
What is happening in practice is in many ways contrary to what the well-meaning secular proponents of "integration" intended; every additional step towards "integration" requires a further compromise on the part of the secular population, one bit at a time, until the enlightened Israel sinks into darkness.
Furthermore, it is unclear what precisely constitutes this "integration" that the secular majority is supposed to support. Do most secular Israelis want to live together with Haredim in the same neighborhoods? What the secular public sees are the precedents where the "integration" of any more than a minimal number of ultra-Orthodox families means systemic pressure on secular lifestyles and a process of an accelerating and coercive religiosity in the neighborhood's public square and on its allocation of resources.
So, when it comes to living together, the secular majority is not interested.
What about going to school together? That is all the secular population needs, because they would rapidly turn into yeshivas.
So how about taking vacations and spending leisure time together, for example, joint trips to the tombs of rabbis in Uman, or "revivalist" meetings? No thanks. So, what yes?
Let’s at least be honest with ourselves. For most of the secular public, "integration" means that the Haredim finally serve in the IDF and go out to work, just like everyone else and no more. In other words, that they get off the backs of the secular public - the people who built Israel, turned it into the magnificent creation it is and continue to sustain and nourish it today - to allow everyone to live and even thrive.
In 2050, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics, the Haredi population will number approximately 3 million people, some 30% of the projected Jewish population, and over 4 million in 2060, about 35% of the Jewish population.
To put it simply, one out of every three Jews in Israel will be Haredi, compared to 15% today, and many others will belong to the national-religious community, which is composed of people of varying degrees of tolerance and enlightenment.
Israel cannot bear the burden the Haredi community imposes on it for long, without economic ruin, no matter how much high-tech the secular population produces. Israel will also be unable to remain a vibrant democracy, if a substantial portion of its citizens view various rabbinical figures, as opposed to the state’s laws and values, as their primary locus of authority.
Our young people will not wish to live here, if they have to support vast numbers of people who live at their expense, or to serve in the IDF, if they are asked to defend draft dodgers and an increasingly illiberal society. Israel’s very existence as a Jewish, Zionist and democratic state, the core principles of its national security, is at stake.
In reality, Haredi society cannot continue to exist for long as presently constituted and, much like a glacier, will ultimately collapse of its own weight.
More and more young Haredim are fed up with the lives of poverty and intellectual privation, wish to merge into broader Israeli society, and appreciate the need to respect the secular majority’s lifestyle. Many find the current coercive practices of the Haredi community objectionable.
A democratic society based on discrimination and coercion, against the overwhelming majority, cannot long survive, and the secular majority certainly has no interest in helping the Haredi community do so. To the contrary.
As a "radical centrist," who favors political moderation as a fundamental pillar of democratic discourse, and thus almost always favors evolutionary, not revolutionary change, the idea of "integration" is an attractive one, which I support in principle. The illusory "integration" that has been forced upon the secular majority by the Haredi parties, however, is another matter entirely.
It would hardly be radical to note that Haredim work for their livelihoods all over the world, as a matter of course, since no one else will support them, and that when forced to do so in the past, they have even served in foreign armies, without specially constituted units for them.
The limited success in integrating Haredim into Israeli society achieved to date, is a result of the secular population’s steadfast defense of a last few remaining democratic principles, not of further compromise, which ends up constituting a surrender of democratic values.
Support for true "integration" is not a matter of secular coercion. It is called respect for the values of democracy and the rule of law and reflects the will of the overwhelming majority of the people. Time is present. If things do not change rapidly, by 2050 Israel will have become a poor and illiberal society.
With the political map changing daily before our eyes, there is an opportunity for change following the upcoming elections – still no more than an opportunity – and for the establishment of a secular coalition, or at least a more moderate one.
So, go forth and take the polling stations by storm. It is not a matter of war or peace, but of war or integration. A political and cultural battle for the future character of the Jewish state and its values, in the face of the specious rhetoric that has won over the minds of so many, for so long.
Chuck Freilich, a former deputy Israeli national security adviser, is a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center and author of "Israeli National Security: A New Strategy for an Era of Change" (Oxford University Press, April 2018). Twitter: @FreilichChuck

Netanyahu’s Political and Legal Challenges in the Next Elections
David Makovsky/The Washington Institute/January 24/19
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For now, he is sticking with the tried-and-true formula of emphasizing his security pedigree, but looming indictments could change his campaign narrative and coalition-building strategy.
Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu hopes to capture his fifth term in the April 9 national elections, and polls show he has a clear lead over other candidates, retaining support from approximately a quarter of the electorate. Yet it is insufficient to merely have the most votes; to govern, the winner must subsequently cobble together a majority of at least 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Netanyahu is also under the shadow of potential corruption indictments pending a hearing that would occur after the elections.
Regarding policy issues, Netanyahu is accustomed to framing election campaigns in a manner that highlights his security successes against Israel’s enemies while raising questions about whether his rivals can stand up to international pressure for concessions on the Palestinian issue. In seeking to emphasize his security credentials in the past couple weeks, he broke from Israel’s policy of ambiguity on military operations against Iranian activities in Syria, spurring the opposition to charge that he is putting the country at risk in order to maximize political gain. Last week, outgoing Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot called these claims baseless, stating, “There were never any political concerns behind my decisions; nor were there in the prime minister’s considerations.” In any case, it is safe to assume that Netanyahu will continue playing security as his main card in the upcoming race. The question is how he will frame the elections if the corruption allegations come to center stage.
WILL THE ATTORNEY GENERAL INDICT?
The campaign’s trajectory may well hinge on whether Israel’s attorney general—former Netanyahu cabinet secretary Avichai Mandelblit—issues indictments against the prime minister before April 9. Netanyahu faces three lengthy and ongoing corruption investigations. One centers on whether the telecom company Bezeq won preferable tax treatment for allowing the Prime Minister’s Office to guide press coverage on its Walla website. Another centers on allegations that Netanyahu agreed to push legislation limiting the circulation of Israel Hayom—a free daily newspaper that boasts the country’s largest readership—in exchange for more favorable coverage from its competitor Yediot Aharonot. A third case asks whether the estimated $180,000-$200,000 in champagne and cigars he received from a friend who held a minority interest in an Israeli television station constitutes a bribe. (There is a fourth case stemming from former defense minister Moshe Yaalon’s allegation that Netanyahu sought to benefit his brother-in-law, the attorney for a German company selling submarines to Israel. So far, though, authorities have not formally echoed this claim or hinted at imminent charges.)
Mandelblit may be taking action on one or more of these matters soon. The police officials who conducted the fact-gathering investigation are known to favor indictment in the first three cases. Moreover, when the attorney general met with his predecessors and former Supreme Court members in recent weeks, all of them reportedly urged him to act before the election, arguing that the public has a right to know his findings before going to the polls. Specifically, they counseled him to act before March in order to minimize claims that he is proceeding on the eve of balloting. The question is whether he would pursue the gravest accusation—bribery—or issue lesser charges.
The belief that Mandelblit is leaning toward indictment also stems from Netanyahu’s primetime address on January 7, when he called for televised debates against three former confidantes who are now witnesses for the state. Although authorities predictably rejected that demand, analysts contend that it demonstrates just how anxious the prime minister has become about the looming indictments. The question of whether indictments alone would legally compel him to leave office is still contested, but a conviction would clearly require him to step down.
If Netanyahu decides that pre-election charges are inevitable, he has several potential courses of action. Will he try to soften the blow by preempting Mandelblit and pleading his case to the public on each allegation? Or will he sidestep the details and assure voters that he is prepared to fight the charges in a post-election hearing or court proceedings? Alternatively, he may double down on his claim that authorities are pursuing charges based on mere animus toward him—a stretch given that Mandelblit was once his policy aide. In recent years, the mindset of Netanyahu’s Likud Party has veered sharply from the nineteenth-century European liberal outlook that defined its forebears, instead promoting a narrative of persecution by an elite legal establishment that supposedly thumbs its nose at the populist faction. A recent Likud billboard singled out a few leading journalists, declaring that the people will decide Israel’s future, not the media—a signal that the prime minister may intend to intensify his rhetoric against the press.
If Netanyahu manages to win the elections despite these challenges, he may seek to shape his next coalition based on who would be most loyal to him once indictments and court cases proceed in the coming months. In that case, he would likely pursue a coalition similar to the one he has now, using right-of-center and ultraorthodox parties to maintain his parliamentary majority rather than reaching out to parties on his left. (The prospects and potential electoral strategies of left-wing parties and other challengers will be discussed in future PolicyWatches.)
SATELLITE PARTIES ARE TEETERING
Netanyahu has recently voiced concern that some of his political partners are losing popular support. At least three parties in his current coalition have dropped close to 3.25 percent of the vote, the minimum threshold needed to enter parliament. One of them is Shas, the Sephardic ultraorthodox faction that has been a pillar of most of his governments. Yet the party’s charismatic rabbinic leader passed away a few years ago, and a corruption probe is haunting its political leader. Moreover, some of its voters are not ultraorthodox and could easily switch to other parties. Given these risks, Netanyahu might press for a technical merger between Shas and its Ashkenazic equivalent Agudat Yisrael, allowing Shas members to sail into the next Knesset even if the merger collapses afterward.
Also at risk is the Jewish Home Party, a pro-settler faction that has split with its vocal leaders. Education Minister Naftali Bennett and Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked seek to distance themselves from the party’s traditional core, which hails from the defunct National Religious Party. The two leaders now call themselves the New Right, and Bennett hopes this shift to a nonsectarian platform will catapult him into Netanyahu’s post.
A third party at risk is Yisrael Beitenu, led by former defense minister Avigdor Liberman. He founded the party not long after a massive wave of Jewish immigration from the former Soviet Union, but these immigrant roots may not be a strong enough platform now that the next generation has reached voting age and feels integrated into Israeli life.
Ideally, Netanyahu would like to pull voters away from rivals like Bennett and Liberman. Yet if this is not possible, he would prefer that their reliable parties retain their strength and keep voters inside the right-wing bloc—otherwise, factions like Jewish Home may become so weak that they fail to surpass the minimum voting threshold.
CONCLUSION
As in past campaigns, Netanyahu’s current lead in the polls is premised on security threats. Yet the pending indictments could radically shift the paradigm well beyond election day, pushing Netanyahu and his allies to consider coalition formulas that best ensure his political survival at a time of unprecedented legal challenges.
**David Makovsky is the Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute.

Venezuela proves Gulf prosperity should not be taken for granted
Omar Al-Ubaydli/Al Arabiya/January 24/19
As the political crisis unfolding in Venezuela seizes the headlines, analysts frequently draw attention to the fact that the South American country has the largest oil reserves in the world. The example of Venezuela, as well as several other African and Middle Eastern states, confirms that natural resource wealth is no guarantee of high living standards. In fact, in many cases, it seems as though an abundance of oil and diamonds may have been a leading cause of poverty and instability, rather than a source of prosperity.
Meanwhile, in the United Nations Development Programme 2018 Global Human Development Report, all six Gulf countries were classified as exhibiting “very high human development”. Are the Gulf countries simply lucky? And if they have actually achieved something substantial, do they get enough credit in the eyes of commentators?
The importance of productive agriculture is a key reason why human civilization started in fertile lands such as Mesopotamia and Egypt, and why it went on to flourish in the temperate regions of Europe. It also explains why one can scarcely think of prosperous desert nation at any point in history.
Contrary to popular belief, one can actually make a good case that the Gulf countries have been unlucky. Their oil and gas wealth is plainly visible, but what is rarely appreciated is the near absence of the traditional cornerstones of a modern economy.
The biggest problem faced by the Gulf states is their desert climate, as it creates an environment that is even harder to live in than the tundra of the Arctic circle. That is why, prior to the discovery of oil in the 1930s, the Gulf states struggled to support non-nomadic life. They had low populations, and very low living standards.
That experience was consistent with what humans have witnessed throughout history. The first step toward economic development is the creation of an agricultural surplus, as that allows society to only have a small percentage of its population engaged in food production, with the rest free to pursue other economic activities, from industry to science and art. In a true desert, a fulltime intellectual or inventor is near fantasy, as a Bedouin’s primary concern is how to avoid starvation over the course of the coming week.
The importance of productive agriculture is a key reason why human civilization started in fertile lands such as Mesopotamia and Egypt, and why it went on to flourish in the temperate regions of Europe. It also explains why one can scarcely think of prosperous desert nation at any point in history.
Until the present day, however. In 2016, in the 50 richest countries in the world according to per capita income, only six had a desert/arid climate—the Gulf states. And they achieved this in spite of their bad luck in the agricultural domain: the average global rank of the Gulf countries in arable land per capita is 193rd, and in forest land per capita is 201st.
Monarchs, on the other hand, are typically more long-sighted, and that is a key reason why the Gulf countries have historically exhibited extreme respect for property rights, enabling them to attract large volumes of foreign capital.
How did the Gulf states manage this? As the desperately unfortunate experience of Venezuela confirms, there are many difficult steps involved in transforming oil deposits into high living standards.
One factor emphasized by scholars is the monarchic government structure, especially when compared to the alternative of a military-dominated republic seen in many other African or Middle Eastern countries. Malfunctioning republics are characterized by extreme short-termism by their leaders, as the incumbent benefits little from long-term returns that accrue after their term ends (which often means after their death). This pushes them toward anti-growth policies, including expropriating foreign investors, anemic investment in infrastructure, and so on.
Monarchs, on the other hand, are typically more long-sighted, and that is a key reason why the Gulf countries have historically exhibited extreme respect for property rights, enabling them to attract large volumes of foreign capital. This is reflected in the analyses of global credit rating agencies, who perceive virtually zero expropriation risk in the Gulf countries. Earning the trust of international investors is arguably one of the most important policy successes of the Gulf countries, especially in terms of attracting the top global oil companies, and fully developing their fossil fuel deposits.
As demonstrated by various African and Middle Eastern countries, respecting property rights is certainly not an automatic consequence of being blessed with oil wealth. Moreover, when oil revenues have accrued, the Gulf states have demonstrated a strong willingness to invest those revenues in infrastructure, yielding significant economic returns in the long run.
The Gulf countries’ economic policy successes have not been absolute, however, and the limited progress in diversifying the economy is probably the most glaring shortcoming. Yet even in that case, it is worth noting that there is no proven diversification plan that has been shunned by the Gulf countries.
All previously successful diversification efforts, such as those of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Mexico, have been in countries rich in non-oil resources, and with non-desert climates, meaning that when you take the oil away, there are still many natural resources to work with. The same cannot be said of the Gulf countries, though Saudi Arabia is uniquely blessed with Makkah and its economic potential.
Commentators rarely acknowledge the economic success of the Gulf countries, preferring instead to imply that it is the automatic consequence of their oil wealth. It is seen as analogous to the “unearned” inheritance wealth of an aristocrat, despite the economic failure of so many oil-rich states, and the tough climatic hand that the Gulf countries have been dealt. Ironically, the exception that proves the rule is Dubai, as its economic policies are often lauded, but it is treated as an oil-poor state.
*Omar Al-Ubaydli (@omareconomics) is a researcher at Derasat, Bahrain.