LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 16.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.january16.20.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
There is no longer Jew or Greek, there is no longer slave or free, there is no
longer male and female; for all of you are one in Christ Jesus.
Letter to the Galatians 03/23-29/:”Before faith came, we were imprisoned and
guarded under the law until faith would be revealed. Therefore the law was our
disciplinarian until Christ came, so that we might be justified by faith. But
now that faith has come, we are no longer subject to a disciplinarian, for in
Christ Jesus you are all children of God through faith. As many of you as were
baptized into Christ have clothed yourselves with Christ. There is no longer Jew
or Greek, there is no longer slave or free, there is no longer male and female;
for all of you are one in Christ Jesus. And if you belong to Christ, then you
are Abraham’s offspring, heirs according to the promise.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News & Editorials published on January 15-16/2020
The Occupier Hezbollah Stands Behind All Acts Of Violence, chaos &
Corruption/Elias Bejjani/January 15/2020
A Revolution That Does Not Call For The Liberation Of Lebanon Is A mere Tool for
the Occupier that is Hezbollah/Elias Bejjani/January 15/2020
UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis: Lebanese Politicians Should Blame
Themselves
Scuffles, Arrests as Protesters Block Jounieh Highway, Beirut Roads
59 arrested after protest clashes near central bank
59 Arrested, 47 Policemen Injured after Protest Clashes in Hamra
Protesters Clash with Police outside ISF Barracks in Mar Elias
Aoun's Wednesday interlocutors at Baabda Palace
Hariri receives Salame: Governor has immunity, FPM obstructed work of government
Lebanon banks in tatters after angry night-time demos
Injuries, Tear Gas as Clashes Erupt outside Central Bank
Lebanon: Threats of Escalation If Govt not Formed Within 48 Hours
Lebanon's Hariri condemns vandalism after night of violence
Hariri Rejects Reviving Lebanon’s Caretaker Cabinet
Lebanese banking association condemns delay in forming new government: Statement
Banks in Tatters after Angry Night-Time Demos
Berri Slams 'Unbelievable' Hamra Rioting, Reassures on Small Deposits
Jumblat Condemns Hamra Rioting, Urges Electricity Reform
Report: Diab, Khalil Hold ‘Three-Hour’ Talks amid Lineup Hurdles
Reports: New Govt. May be Imminent after Agreement on Foreign Portfolio
How Lebanon can break free from the past/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/January
15/2020
The Other Iran and the Regional-Civil Binary/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January,
15/2020
Funding Lebanon is Funding Hezbollah/A.J. Caschetta/The Jerusalem Post/January
15/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
January 15-16/2020
Iran social media posts call for fifth day of protests
Zarif Says Not Interested in Negotiations With US, Rouhani Criticizes EU
Iranians Take to the Streets to Reject Repression
Britain's ambassador leaves Iran after brief detention
Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei to lead Friday prayers for first time since 2012
US expects UN sanctions on Iran to ‘snap back into place’: Treasury Secretary
Qatar Airways to continue to use Iranian airspace: CEO
Israeli Official Threatens IRGC With ‘Deadly Campaign’ in Syria
Ukraine Asks Iran to Return Black Boxes From Crashed Plane
Iranian proxy fighters killed in Syria by suspected Israeli strike: Monitor
Regime air raids kill 9 civilians despite Idlib truce: Report
Turkey, Russia talks over ‘secure zone’ in Syria’s Idlib to enforce ceasefire:
Turkey
US-Iran war would bring ‘untold chaos’ warns Jordan’s King
Sisi Inaugurates Bernice Military Base at Event Attended by Khalid bin Salman,
Abu Dhabi Crown Prince
Doctors Without Borders’ Condemns Liquidation of Wounded Patient in Taiz
Hospital
US Presses Sudanese FM for Reparations to Terror Victims
Egypt orders retrial of monks sentenced to death for bishop’s murder
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 15-16/2020
Iran’s Grim Economy Limits Its Willingness to Confront the US/Peter S.
Goodman/The New York Times/January, 15/2020
Europe’s Center-Left Learns to Live After Death/Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/January,
15/2020
Turkish Voters – and Putin – Will Restrain Erdogan’s Libya Ambitions/Aykan
Erdemir and Brenna Knippen/Al Arabiya/January 15/2020
Iranians need to seek change, not revenge in 2020s.Howard Leedham/Arab
News/January 15/2020
Why Israeli left’s Arab snub may not be a bad thing/Ray Hanania/Arab
News/January 15/2020
World leaders aim for cohesion at landmark Davos summit/Andrew Hammond/Arab
News/January 15/2020
Soleimani, The Jihadis, And The Christians/Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/January
15/2020
Human Rights Watch World Report 2020/Lebanon//The rights situation in Lebanon
deteriorated in 2019/Human Rights Watch website/January 15/2020
Details Of The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News & Editorial published on January 15-16/2020
The Occupier Hezbollah Stands Behind All
Acts Of Violence, chaos & Corruption
Elias Bejjani/January 15/2020
المحتل حزب الله هو وراء كل اعمال العنف والفساد والفوضى
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/82321/elias-bejjani-the-occupier-hezbollah-stands-behind-all-acts-of-violence-chaos-corruption-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%ad%d8%aa%d9%84-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d9%87-%d9%87%d9%88-%d9%88%d8%b1/
There is no shed of doubt that all acts of violence from all sorts, no matter
big or small, that are taking place in Lebanon and criminally inflicted on the
oppressed and impoverished Lebanese people are planned and executed by
Hezbollah’s armed mercenaries, proxies and thugs.
The terrorist Iranian armed proxy, The so called Hezbollah, is directly or
covertly fully accountable for all the hardships and all the miseries that the
Lebanese people are encountering, including the current economic and banking
sector devastating ongoing crisis.
The saddening reality that every Lebanese MUST grasp and act accordingly is that
Lebanon is an Iranian occupied country by all means and in accordance to all
legal and UN criteria.
According there will be no solutions in any domain, or at any level, before the
full and immediate implementation of the three UN resolutions that address
Lebanon:
The Armistice agreement, the 1559 and 1701 Resolutions.
Meanwhile, sadly, the majority of the Lebanese politicians from all religious
denominational backgrounds and affiliations are mere puppets and do not serve
Lebanon’s or the Lebanese interests and welfare, but serve evilly and
narcissistically those of Hezbollah’s Iranian schemes.
It remains very obvious that all Lebanon’s officials including the president,
house Speaker, Prime Minister, as well as all narcissistic owners of the so
called falsely political parties have sold themselves and their dignity to the
Hezbollah occupier with much more less than thirty pieces of silver.
A Revolution That Does Not Call For The Liberation Of Lebanon Is A mere Tool for
the Occupier that is Hezbollah
Elias Bejjani/January 15/2020
A revolution that flaunts, hails and
turns a blind eye on the Mullahs' Iranian Hezbollah occupation, terrorism,
crimes, trafficking, regional wars, and at the same time advocates for its big
lie of resistance is definitely a revolution of hypocrisy. Such a revolution
carries it own failure and only serves the occupier's Iranian devastating
agenda.
UN Special Coordinator for
Lebanon Jan Kubis: Lebanese Politicians Should Blame Themselves
Naharnet/January 15/2020
UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis said Lebanon’s politicians should
blame themselves for the country’s ailing economy and the government delay
sening the country in tatters. “Another day of confusion around the formation of
a government, amidst the increasingly angry protests and free-falling economy.
Politicians, don’t blame the people, blame yourselves for this dangerous chaos,”
said Kubis. “Lebanon is truly unique,” he said “the BDL Governor requesting
extraordinary powers to at least somehow manage the economy while those
responsible watch it collapsing. Incredible.”Kubis remarks come one day after
Lebanese retook to the streets in angry rallies after a lull in the
three-months-long protests to express their impatience at the ruling elite’s
failure to address a fast crumbling economy and form a government.
Scuffles, Arrests as
Protesters Block Jounieh Highway, Beirut Roads
Naharnet/January 15/2020
Anti-government protesters blocked several key highways and roads on Wednesday
afternoon, on the second day of what they have dubbed a “week of wrath”. Groups
of school students and a few activists blocked the vital Jounieh highway in both
directions before being swiftly confronted by army troops. The soldiers managed
to reopen the highway after arrests and scuffles with the demonstrators. In
Beirut, protesters blocked the Ring and Corniche al-Mazraa highways with burning
tires. Protesters meanwhile rallied outside the Helou barracks in Beirut’s Mar
Elias area to demand the release of dozens of demonstrators held overnight
during fierce clashes on Hamra Street. Elsewhere, protesters blocked the al-Beddawi
highway in the North and the Zahle roundabout in the Bekaa.
59 arrested after protest
clashes near central bank
Associated Press/January 15/2020
The local currency has lost over 60% of its value — dropping for the first time
in nearly three decades from a fixed rate of 1,507 pounds to the dollar to 2,400
in just the past few weeks.
BEIRUT: Lebanese security forces arrested 59 people, the police said Wednesday,
following clashes overnight outside the central bank as angry protesters vented
their fury against the country’s ruling elite and the worsening financial
crisis. The hours-long clashes that erupted on Tuesday evening also left 47
policemen injured, the security forces said, as some protesters smashed windows
on private banks in Beirut’s key commercial district. Earlier on Tuesday,
protesters rallied outside the central bank in the bustling Hamra neighborhood,
denouncing the bank governor and policies they say have only deepened the
country’s financial woes. The rally turned violent as protesters tried to push
their way through the security forces deployed outside the bank. In over five
hours of pitched street battles, security forces lobbed volleys of tear gas at
the protesters, who responded with rocks and firecrackers.
Some protesters, using metal bars and sticks, smashed windows on commercial
banks and foreign exchange bureaus nearby. The clashes marked an end to a lull
in the three-months-long protests. Lebanon is facing its worst economic troubles
in decades. One of the most highly indebted countries in the world, it imports
almost all basic goods but foreign currency sources have dried up. The local
currency has lost over 60% of its value — dropping for the first time in nearly
three decades from a fixed rate of 1,507 pounds to the dollar to 2,400 in just
the past few weeks.
Meanwhile, banks have imposed informal capital controls, limiting withdrawal of
dollars and foreign transfers in the country. In three months of protests, this
was the first time the commercial center of Beirut had become the scene of
clashes. The area, which is also home to theaters and restaurants, was left
deserted except for protesters, police and smoke from the tear gas. Traffic
resumed Wednesday and shops and banks reopened as pavements were cleared of
smashes glass. Outgoing Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who resigned shortly after
the protests first began in mid-October, said the violence in Hamra was
“unacceptable” and an aggression on the heart of the capital. He urged for an
investigation. A new prime minister designate was named in December but has
still been unable to form a new government.
59 Arrested, 47 Policemen
Injured after Protest Clashes in Hamra
Associated Press/Naharnet/January 15/2020
Security forces arrested 59 people, the police said Wednesday, following clashes
overnight outside the central bank as angry protesters vented their fury against
the country's ruling elite and the worsening financial crisis. The hours-long
clashes that erupted on Tuesday evening also left 47 policemen injured, the
security forces said, as some protesters smashed windows on private banks in
Beirut's key commercial district. Earlier on Tuesday, protesters rallied outside
the central bank in the bustling Hamra neighborhood, denouncing the bank
governor and policies they say have only deepened the country's financial woes.
The rally turned violent as protesters tried to push their way through the
security forces deployed outside the bank. In over five hours of pitched street
battles, security forces lobbed volleys of tear gas at the protesters, who
responded with rocks and firecrackers.
Some protesters, using metal bars and sticks, smashed windows on commercial
banks and foreign exchange bureaus nearby. The clashes marked an end to a lull
in the three-months-long protests. Lebanon is facing its worst economic troubles
in decades. One of the most highly indebted countries in the world, it imports
almost all basic goods but foreign currency sources have dried up. The local
currency has lost over 60% of its value — dropping for the first time in nearly
three decades from a fixed rate of 1,507 pounds to the dollar to 2,400 in just
the past few weeks. Meanwhile, banks have imposed informal capital controls,
limiting withdrawal of dollars and foreign transfers in the country. In three
months of protests, this was the first time the commercial center of Beirut had
become the scene of clashes. The area, which is also home to theaters and
restaurants, was left deserted except for protesters, police and smoke from the
tear gas.Traffic resumed Wednesday and shops and banks reopened as pavements
were cleared of smashes glass.Outgoing Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who resigned
shortly after the protests first began in mid-October, said the violence in
Hamra was "unacceptable" and an aggression on the heart of the capital. He urged
for an investigation. A new prime minister designate was named in December but
has still been unable to form a new government.
Protesters Clash with Police
outside ISF Barracks in Mar Elias
Naharnet/January 15/2020
between security forces and protesters demanding the release of dozens of people
who were arrested Tuesday during a demo that turned violent in Beirut's Hamra
area. Wednesday evening’s confrontation erupted outside the Helou barracks of
the Internal Security Forces in Beirut’s Mar Elias area.
Security forces fired tear gas to disperse protesters after some of them hurled
firecrackers and empty bottles. The demonstrators later responded with stones
after tear gas was fired at them and after several protesters were arrested or
beaten up by riot police. TV networks reported that several protesters were
injured in the violence. The National News Agency meanwhile said that some tear
gas canisters landed inside the premises of the nearby Russian embassy. Large
numbers of protesters had gathered outside the barracks since morning to demand
the release of those arrested overnight.
Al-Jadeed TV meanwhile said that some protesters smashed the facades and ATMs of
some banks while on their way to the demo outside the barracks.
Aoun's Wednesday interlocutors at Baabda Palace
NNA/January 15/2020
President Michel Aoun received the Minister of Tourism, in the care-taker
Government, Avedis Kedanian, and discussed with him the current situation. The
President discussed, with the Minister of Tourism, the status of the tourism
sector, and recent developments encountered. From his side, Kedanian briefed
President Aoun on the positive results achieved by the tourist season, before
October 17th. President Aoun met MP, Antoine Pano, and deliberated with him on
the general situation and recent political developments. Afterwards, the
President received his personal representative to the International Organization
of "La Francophonie", Dr. Jarjoura Hardan, at Baabda Palace. Hardan briefed
President Aoun on the activities of the organization, and the upcoming meetings
which will be discussed in its work program in the coming months.--Presidency
Press Office
Hariri receives Salame: Governor has immunity, FPM
obstructed work of government
NNA /January 15/2020
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri condemned the incidents that took place
last night in Hamra area. He said: “The logic of destroying the streets of Hamra,
Saifi and others is unacceptable. The citizens of Beirut, and I am one of them,
are fed up with this matter.”
He asked: “Where were the security forces and the Lebanese army when these
events took place?” and called on them to do their duty to protect the people,
institutions and every citizen or institution subjected to violence.
Hariri responded to the campaigns against the Central Bank Governor Riad Salame,
and asked: “Who borrowed the money and spent it? The Central Bank Governor or
the Lebanese State? Who failed to solve the electricity problem? The Central
Bank Governor or the Lebanese State?” accusing the Free Patriotic Movement of
obstructing the work of the government.
Hariri’s remarks came during a chat with journalists after his meeting with
Central Bank Governor Riad Salame this evening at the Center House. He said:
“The right to demonstrate in Lebanon is natural and everyone knows how the
caretaker government dealt with all the demonstrators. But what happened last
night pictured an ownerless permissible Beirut. No, Beirut is not like that. The
logic of destroying the streets of Hamra, Saifi and others is unacceptable. The
peaceful demonstrations are welcome, but others are rejected. The people of
Beirut, and I am one of them, are fed up with this matter. We, as a movement,
are silently sitting in our homes, but where are the security forces and the
Lebanese Army? The security forces must carry out their duties to protect the
people, institutions and every citizen or institution subjected to violence.”
Hariri responded to the campaigns against Central Bank Governor Riad Salame. He
said: “Everyone wants to blame the Central Bank for all the financial woes in
the country. But we have to know one thing. There are 47 to 50 billion dollars
that the Lebanese state borrowed for electricity. If we had accomplished the
reforms required for electricity since day one, there would be 47 billion in the
pockets of the Lebanese today. But these billions are today in the pockets of
the owners of illegal generators and you know who are the owners of illegal
generators.”
He added: “Before blaming someone, we have to see where this money went and how
it was spent and what is the responsibility of the political parties in losing
these sums.”
He continued: “Some say that I am a prime minister and I am responsible. This is
certain, but there were those who had nothing to do except to disrupt the work
of the government, and everyone knows who they are.” Asked who they are, he
answered: “The Free Patriotic Movement was the one obstructing the work of the
government.”
In response to a question about those who accuse the Future movement of
obstructing the solution to the electricity crisis, Hariri said: “Let them say
where we obstructed the solution. Were we in charge of the Ministry of Energy
once since 2008 and after that? Even during the days of Martyr Prime Minister
Rafic Hariri and until today? I want to ask: Who borrowed and spent the money?
The Central Bank Governor or the Lebanese State? Who failed to solve the
electricity crisis? The Central Bank Governor or the Lebanese State?”
On what he called “a campaign to uproot the Central Bank Governor”, Hariri said:
“There are people who do not understand the economy or numbers, and give
economic information that has no basis or pillars. The topic is very easy, if
there was 24 hour electricity in Lebanon, it would have been able to earn money
from electricity.”
As for the talk about the intention of the new government to dismiss the Central
Bank Governor and the Director General of the Internal Security Forces, Major
General Imad Othman, he said: “Let them form the government first. The Governor
has immunity and nobody can dismiss him, and let every government assume its
responsibilities. I will not get ahead of things, and like any political team,
we will give the new government a chance to work and see what it will produce,
and then we will decide our position on it. Didn’t the martyr prime minister do
the same?”In response to a question, Hariri denied having faced a political
coup, specifically from Speaker Nabih Berri. Asked: It was said that you
returned to Lebanon after you were asked to implement the role of a caretaker
premier, he replied: “I returned to Lebanon because it is my duty to come back
and be among the people. I am no one’s employee.”
Lebanon banks in tatters after
angry night-time demos
Arab News/January 15/2020
BEIRUT: Public anger against cash-strapped banks boiled over in crisis-hit
Lebanon where demonstrators armed with metal rods, fire extinguishers and rocks
attacked branches in protest at controls that have trapped the savings of
ordinary depositors. The Red Cross said Wednesday that at least 37 people were
injured in an overnight showdown during which protesters smashed windows of
banks and scuffled with security forces in the capital’s Hamra district.
Lebanese politicians are watching on as the economy collapses, the senior UN
official in Lebanon said on Wednesday, rebuking a political elite that has
failed to form a government as the country sinks deeper into economic and
financial crisis. Jan Kubis, UN special coordinator for Lebanon, also noted that
central bank (BDL) governor Riad Salameh had requested extraordinary powers to
manage the economy — an apparent reference to his request for extra authorities
to regulate controls being implemented by commercial banks. “Lebanon is truly
unique — the BDL Governor requesting extraordinary powers to at least somehow
manage the economy while those responsible watch it collapsing. Incredible,”
Kubis wrote in a Twitter post. Police said 59 people were detained, making it
one of the largest waves of arrests since Lebanon’s anti-government protest
movement began on October 17 demanding a complete government overhaul.
As the movement nears the start of its fourth month, banks have become a prime
target of demonstrators who charge them with driving the country toward its
worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. On Wednesday morning in the
commercial district of Hamra, a banking hub, almost every branch was left with
smashed display windows, destroyed ATMs and graffiti-covered walls. Banks opened
their doors despite the wreckage, as cleaners wiped spray paint off walls and
workers replaced window fronts. With some ATMs destroyed beyond repair,
passers-by looked on in astonishment at the aftermath of the night-time assault
on banks.
“There is a lot of anger,” Alia said in front a damaged branch. “You have to go
to the bank twice to withdraw just $200.” Banks have since September arbitrarily
capped the amount of dollars customers can withdraw or transfer abroad, in a
country where the greenback and the Lebanese pound are used
interchangeably.Although no formal policy is in place, most lenders have limited
withdrawals to around $1,000 a month, while others have imposed tighter curbs.
Sparked by a grinding liquidity crunch, the controls are increasingly forcing
depositors to deal in the plummeting pound, amounting to what experts are
calling a de facto banking “haircut.”The local currency has lost over a third of
its value against the dollar on the parallel market, plunging to almost 2,500
against the US dollar over the past week. The official rate was pegged at 1,507
Lebanese pounds to the greenback in 1997. Demonstrators accuse banks of holding
their deposits hostage while allowing politicians, senior civil servants and
bank owners to transfer funds abroad. Banks have as a result transformed into
arenas of conflict, where shouting and tears abound, as depositors haggle
tellers to release their money. Compounding the situation, debt-burdened Lebanon
has been without a government since Saad Hariri resigned as prime minister on
October 29 under pressure from the anti-government protests.
Lebanon’s under-fire politicians have yet to agree on a new cabinet line-up
despite the designation last month of Hassan Diab, a professor and former
education minister, to replace Hariri. The designated premier has pledged to
form a government of independent experts — a key demand of protesters — but
acknowledged last week that some parties were hindering his attempts. The UN
envoy to Lebanon, Jan Kubis, on Wednesday condemned the wrangling between
politicians who he said have turned a deaf ear to the country’s woes.
“Politicians, don’t blame the people, blame yourselves for this dangerous
chaos,” he said in a strongly-worded statement, accusing them of standing by and
watching the economy “collapse.” Piling extra pressure on the premier-designate,
demonstrators have returned to the streets since Saturday after a brief lull
over the end-of-year holidays. They staged a demonstration Tuesday outside
Diab’s house at the launch of “a week of wrath.”But Hamra was the main target of
Tuesday night’s demonstrations, with protesters hurling stones and fire crackers
at security forces who responded with tear gas. They splattered walls with
graffiti, vandalized street signs and sparked a blaze outside the Association of
Banks head office. Showing no sign of backing down, demonstrators called for
another demonstration outside Lebanon’s central bank building later Wednesday.
Main arteries were closed in north and east Lebanon and several schools stayed
closed after the latest unrest.
Injuries, Tear Gas as Clashes
Erupt outside Central Bank
Associated Press/Naharnet/January 15/2020
Clashes erupted Tuesday evening between protesters and security forces outside
the central bank on Beirut’s Hamra Street.
The National News Agency said the confrontation started after some protesters
tried to bring down a security barrier protecting the bank’s premises. The
agency said security forces fired tear gas after protesters hurled stones and
firecrackers. LBCI TV said several protesters and policemen were injured in the
standoff as many demonstrators were arrested by riot police. Protesters
meanwhile blocked the road with burning trash bins and other obstacles. MTV's
correspondent meanwhile said the channel's crew were attacked by protesters
claiming to be supporters of Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Speaker
Nabih Berri. The TV network broadcast a video of angry young men, some masked,
who were chanting pro-Nasrallah slogans and attacking the crew. Earlier, a
protesting young man told MTV that he came from Beirut's southern suburbs, a
Hizbullah stronghold, to exclusively protest against the policies of Central
Bank Governor Riad Salameh. He added that he supports the anti-government
protesters as long as they do not insult Nasrallah or Berri. Later in the
evening, security forces called on "peaceful protesters" to leave the area,
signalling that they would use more force to contain the situation.
Media reports meanwhile said that some CCTV cameras and the facades of several
banks were vandalized by rioters. Anti-government protesters had brought the
country to a standstill since the early morning hours, decrying authorities’
handling of the economic and political crises.
Protests have taken place inside commercial banks over the last few weeks as
depositors tried to access their accounts. But Tuesday night's violence was the
first outside the central bank. "We are worried about losing our savings ...
Lebanon is not an easy country to save in," said Riva Daniel, 40 years old, who
was among those protesting outside the central bank since earlier in the day.
"We don't trust the banks here anymore."
Lebanon: Threats of Escalation If Govt not Formed Within 48
Hours
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 15 January, 2020
The process of forming a new government has entered a critical stage with a
request for the birth of the cabinet within 48 hours; otherwise, the country
could face a major political and popular escalation. The unspecified time limit,
which was given to Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab by the political forces
that entrusted him with the formation of the government, coincided with a
48-hour-deadline that the popular movement announced in front of Diab’s house on
Tuesday. Sources close to the designated premier, however, told Asharq Al-Awsat
that his government lineup was ready, “based on the criteria he had set upon his
designation”. But Diab said that obstacles were hindering the announcement of
the new government. Reports emerged on Tuesday saying that Diab requested a
48-hour-deadline to announce his cabinet – information strongly rejected by his
sources. Meanwhile, Speaker Nabih Berri spoke about a positive atmosphere
following a meeting with the head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Foreign
Minister in the resigned government Gebran Bassil on Tuesday. Berri’s visitors
quoted him as saying: “A window of hope was opened; we hope that it would turn
into a door.” Following a meeting of the FPM’s Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc
on Tuesday, Bassil said: “We never had a special [portfolio] request, except
that of forming a government of salvation. And in light of the developments that
took place today, we are further motivated to assume our responsibility, now
more than ever.”“By virtue of our parliamentary responsibilities, we either
grant confidence or withhold it, and the criterion is the [government’s] ability
to rescue [the country]. Neither did we previously choose [a candidate], nor
will we name one today,” he emphasized. “Words about quotas and blocking third
are groundless," the minister stressed, adding that reforms could not be
achieved with the same economic and financial policy adopted over the past 30
years.
Lebanon's Hariri condemns vandalism after night of violence
Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 15 January 2020
Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri condemned the vandalism that took
place overnight Tuesday in Lebanon’s capital Beirut, and referred to it as “suspicious.”“The
attack on Hamra Street is not acceptable under any slogans,” Hariri said on
Twitter. He also said he refuses to be a “false witness” to activities “that
could lead the whole country to ruin.”Hariri refuses to head any government to
cover up “acts that are rejected and condemned by all standards of ethics and
politics.”The former Lebanese prime minister calls for judicial action to
prosecute those tampering with the safety of the capital.
Lebanese security forces fired tear gas to disperse protesters outside the
country’s central bank on Tuesday evening, clashing with dozens of people who
pelted them with stones and fireworks. A group of protesters attempting to enter
the Lebanese Central Bank on Hamra Street tried to force their way into the
building but were stopped but anti-riot police. Speaker of the Parliament Nabih
Berri also condemned the vandalism at the protests.
Hariri Rejects Reviving Lebanon’s Caretaker Cabinet
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 15 January, 2020
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri has said that the solution to Lebanon’s
political crisis lies in forming a new government rather than reviving the
resigned cabinet. In a chat with reporters, Hariri said he was assuming his
duties as head of the caretaker government in line with the constitution.
Hariri spoke after heading the meeting of his Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc at
the Center House in Beirut. “Since submitting my resignation, I have been
assuming my responsibilities as caretaker Prime Minister. I am surprised by
remarks about the caretaker government because I do not see anything stalled at
this level,” he said. He added that it was not clear for him where he had
“failed” in his job as a caretaker premier. “PM-designate Hassan Diab has the
task of forming a government with those who designated him, so let him form the
cabinet with the president,” stressed Hariri. Asked whether he was in favor of
reviving the caretaker government, Hariri said: “I am with the formation of a
new government, not with reviving a cabinet that resigned at the request of
protesters.”Hariri resigned on October 29, declaring he had hit a dead end in
trying to resolve a crisis unleashed by huge protests against the ruling elite.
“Is there a light at the end of the black tunnel?” a reporter asked Hariri on
Tuesday. He responded by saying: “We can get out of this tunnel on the condition
that we put our differences aside and give ministerial portfolios to whoever
actually knows how to manage them.”The Mustaqbal bloc meeting, which was chaired
by Hariri, criticized earlier the delay in government formation, saying the
political bickering over political spoils reflected “the denial toward the
economic and financial dangers.”
Lebanese banking association condemns delay in forming new
government: Statement
Reuters, Beirut/Wednesday, 15 January 2020
Lebanon’s banking association condemned on Wednesday what it called a “great and
irresponsible tardiness” in forming a new government, following a night of
vandalism on Tuesday against banks.In a statement, the group said that banks
were doing as much as they can “to preserve what is left of our national
economy,” and that the delay in forming a new government had made them a target
of violence.
Banks in Tatters after Angry Night-Time Demos
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 15/2020
Cleaners in crisis-hit Beirut swept away shattered glass outside banks Wednesday
after angry night-time protests over informal capital controls that left dozens
of people injured. The commercial district of Hamra, a banking hub, was the
scene of overnight scuffles between security forces and protesters furious over
the curbs that have trapped their savings. They torched waste bins, destroyed
ATMs and smashed the display windows of banks using fire extinguishers, rocks
and metal rods. They splattered walls with graffiti, vandalised street
signs and sparked a blaze outside the Association of Banks, as part of what
protesters have billed a "week of wrath". At least 37 people on both sides were
injured as security forces fired tear gas to disperse the demonstrators, a Red
Cross spokesperson told AFP. Banks in Hamra reopened despite the damage, with
cleaners wiping spray paint off walls and workers replacing window fronts.
Municipality workers replaced traffic lights.
With some ATMs destroyed beyond repair, passers-by looked on in astonishment at
the aftermath of the assault on banks. Now in its third month, Lebanon's
anti-government protest movement is increasingly targeting banks blamed for
driving the country towards its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil
war. Demonstrators accuse banks of holding their deposits hostage while allowing
politicians, senior civil servants and bank owners to transfer money abroad,
despite restrictions that prevent most Lebanese from carrying out such
transfers. Although no formal policy is in place, most lenders have arbitrarily
capped withdrawals at around $1,000 a month, while others have imposed tighter
restrictions. Sparked by a grinding liquidity crunch, the informal controls are
increasingly forcing depositors to deal in the plummeting Lebanese pound. The
local currency has lost over a third of its value against the dollar on the
black market, plunging to almost 2,500 against the US dollar. The official rate
has been pegged at 1,507 Lebanese pounds to the greenback since 1997. Protests
had dwindled to symbolic gatherings since last month when Hassan Diab, a
professor and former education minister, was designate premier. But Lebanese
have returned to the streets since Saturday, when hundreds gathered across the
country to vent their frustration. The protesters are demanding a new government
made up solely of independent technocrats. Analysts warn this may be a tall
order in a country ruled by a sectarian power-sharing system since the end of
its devastating 15-year civil war.
Berri Slams 'Unbelievable' Hamra Rioting, Reassures on
Small Deposits
Naharnet/January 15/2020
Speaker Nabih Berri on Wednesday condemned the overnight clashes and rioting on
Beirut’s Hamra Street, describing them as “unbelievable.” “In my name and in the
name of parliament, we announce our strong condemnation of what happened on
Hamra Street, which is unacceptable,” Berri said during his weekly meeting with
lawmakers in Ain el-Tineh. “I’m not accusing certain individuals and I’m not
accusing the civil protest movement. There was something deliberate and
systematic by unknown individuals. Do they want to destroy the country?” Berri
added. “Beirut is the capital of all of us… and what happened is unbelievable.
Actually if the protest movement is like this, it is neither a protest movement
nor a revolution,” the Speaker went on to say. Noting that security forces have
arrested a number of “suspects,” Berri called for “holding the perpetrators
accountable, whichever side or sect they may belong to.”Separately, Berri put
MPs in the picture of the meeting between the Finance Parliamentary Committee
and the central bank governor, reassuring the Lebanese over “their savings and
anxiousness over their bank deposits, especially those belonging to small
depositors and expats.”“Measures are being prepared in order to protect the
people’s money and public funds,” the Speaker added. “Parliament is ready to
secure the protection of people’s rights,” he said.
Jumblat Condemns Hamra Rioting, Urges Electricity Reform
Naharnet/January 15/2020
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat on Wednesday condemned the
overnight rioting on Beirut’s Hamra Street. “Hamra Street is the jewel of
coexistence, the hub of cultural clubs and launchpad of the national resistance,
and Beirut’s main heritage remained there,” Jumblat tweeted. “As I condemn what
happened yesterday under the excuse of banks, I remind that one of the main
reasons behind the current financial crisis is the opposition of some of the
current government’s parties to the reform of the electricity sector,” Jumblat
added.
Report: Diab, Khalil Hold ‘Three-Hour’ Talks amid Lineup
Hurdles
Naharnet/January 15/2020
PM-designate Hassan Diab held a three-hour meeting over the government formation
with caretaker finance minister Ali Hassan Khalil dispatched by Speaker Nabih
Berri, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Wednesday. According to the daily, Khalil
assured Diab that the Speaker “does not want to terminate his unfinished
mission” as he struggles to line-up the government. Berri wants the PM-designate
to “waive conditions hindering the formation” and form an 18-seat cabinet
instead of 24, to allow the participation of more politicians, said the
newspaper. But according to leaked information, Diab considers Berri’s demand
“an end to his mission before it started,” confirming that he insists on keeping
the pledges he made to the Lebanese to form a small government of “independent
specialists,” not affiliated with political parties. On Monday, Berri announced
that his parliamentary bloc would not participate in a government of
“independent specialists,” upon which Diab is insisting. The daily added that
“Diab wants to keep his obligations being a major element in gaining the
confidence of the Lebanese, international community and donor countries.”Diab
was tasked in December with forming a government, but the rival political
parties have failed to agree on names put forward for the various ministries.
Reports: New Govt. May be Imminent after Agreement on Foreign Portfolio
Naharnet/January 15/2020
The formation of the new government might be imminent after a row over the
foreign affairs portfolio was resolved, a media report said. MTV said Prime
Minister-designate Hassan Diab “accepted to give the foreign affairs portfolio
to Nassif Hitti and the economy portfolio to Demianos Qattar.”LBCI television
meanwhile reported that the parties that named Diab have decided to “facilitate”
his mission. The TV network added that the cabinet line-up is almost final and
only needs an agreement on the energy portfolio and the deputy PM post.
How Lebanon can break free from the past
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/January 15/2020
Lebanon is stuck in the past — a no man’s land where there is no rule of law and
no understanding of the innovation and changes coming to the world. It is a
country where Carlos Ghosn, a fleeing fugitive, is received by the president and
Hassan Nasrallah promises to avenge Qassem Soleimani, an Iranian national, with
terror. Where else would this be accepted? Worst of all, some people — mainly
public officials — consider both events to be justified.
In these two unrelated events, we can understand why the people of Lebanon,
particularly the youth, have taken to the streets. They want nothing to do with
these images of the past. The Lebanese are talented, tech savvy entrepreneurs
with creative minds who are successful all over the world. Yet it seems that, in
Lebanon, we go back to sectarianism and “blood and soil.” It is this archaic
state of the country that needs to be torn down in order to put forward a vision
for a rebuilt nation.
As the dust settles on the most impactful recent event — Soleimani’s demise —
the protests in Lebanon will continue and will face the same ruthless answers
from Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy, and the old state structure. It is,
therefore, time to change everything. It is time to step into the age of
innovation and disrupt the political, security and economic legacy that rules
Lebanon. It is time for a new constitution and a new republic: One that empowers
and gives the Lebanese people the capacity to fulfill their potential and seek a
better future.
For this vision to come to fruition, there is an urgent need for the protesters
to organize. A national transition committee needs to be prepared; one that will
run the affairs of the country while preparing for a new constitution. All
former political formations should be excluded from participating and its
objectives should not be to anchor the country within a specific political
orientation. In other words, this committee should not be a politburo or ersatz
of the Ba’ath Party. It should be used to build state institutions. As it runs
the country’s affairs, the committee will also have the responsibility of
preparing for a new constitution, which will lead to a referendum. Only then can
elections be held to choose the country’s new representatives.
As for now, it is too late for the country to be run by a government chosen by
the regime, for legislative elections, or even for a so-called technocratic
government.Protests have made the will of the people clear but, if nothing is
done to build new sovereign institutions, all will be lost and, worse, the
forces of chaos can take over, especially as a steep financial crisis looms. A
serious plan by a respected committee would also attract more support
domestically and internationally. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy. People need
to see a clear path into the future, not just the rejection of the current
regime. If this plan is put forward, then Nasrallah’s threats can be compared to
the buggy whip industry, which thrived when carriages were the main
transportation method, but disappeared with the appearance of the automotive
industry. If we do not prepare and work for this better future, then Lebanon
will descend into chaos. Once again, despite the gloomy current outlook, there
is great hope for change. With more voices rising, Lebanon will not be a refuge
for the ills of the past for long.
• Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the
editor of Al Watan Al Arabi.
The Other Iran and the Regional-Civil Binary
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January, 15/2020
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom,
it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of
incredulity…” said Charles Dickens as he proceeded to list the binary opposites
at the time of the French Revolution.
This excerpt from his novel A Tale of Two Cities can be used despite what the
British author intended; to characterize the majority of revolutions throughout
history. At least before 1989, most of those extraordinary epics involved civil
and regional wars, some stymied by revolutions while others stymied revolutions,
either at the time or after a while. In our region, the specter of the
American-Iranian conflict hangs over the two ongoing Iraqi and Lebanese
revolutions. This specter feeds on civil and sectarian fragmentation in both
societies. When the regional and the civil are complementary, the
counter-revolution appears to have local sources, precisely like the revolution
— a legitimacy confronting another legitimacy.
This is precisely what happened to the first wave of Arab revolutions,
especially in Syria, Libya, and Yemen. The regional and the civil consolidated,
not as extensions of the revolution or its subsidiary, but as its opposite and
assassin.
This wringing of Iraq today between Tehran and Washington is the best example of
this tendency.
Alternatively: In confronting the peacefulness of both of these revolutions, the
violence of this regional conflict is trying to invoke the violence that
sectarian conflict necessarily entails, it is nurturing and embracing it. The
first, the peaceful- following in the footsteps of the 2011 revolutionary wave-
wants to free the region from the “Arab exceptionalism”. The second, the
violent- following in the footsteps of the repression that confronted those
revolutions- wants the contrary.
Let us take note, that neither of the two regional poles is Napoleonic,
concerned with spreading emancipatory values in the regions and countries that
it extends to, or even desires to do so. On the one hand, Khomeinist Iran is an
explicit enemy of revolutions, dubbing them conspiracies, while the same
revolutions run up against the political map that was drawn by Iranian
expansion. The United States, on the other hand, is not against revolutions in
the same sense that Iran is, but under Trump and Obama before him, it is content
with not intervening except in defending US interests and American lives. The
unstable relationship between Washington and the Kurds is a good example of
this.
This standpoint, unfortunately, is popular in the US and the West in general.
Take a look at, for example, the media coverage of Carlos Ghosn’s escape from
Japan to Lebanon that has far exceeded that of the Iraqi and Lebanese
revolutions.
Therefore, we are not exaggerating when we say that neutralizing both countries
in the regional conflict is one of the conditions for limiting the sectarian
dimension and its effectivity, and consequently, is one of the most important
conditions for this promised change.
In these two countries, particularly, modern history has recorded more than one
attempt to overcome the sectarian in the state. These attempts were frustrated
by the regional that thwarted changed: With King Faisal I in the thirties in
Iraq, then Abd al-Karim Qasim in the fifties and sixties, and Fuad Chehab after
the miniature civil war of 1958 in Lebanon.
Awareness of this makes one afraid of the complementarity between the civil and
the regional. This explains the mighty millions in Iraq a few days ago who
rejected both Iranian and American guardianships. It was accompanied by the
words of Ayatollah al-Sistani that the country should be ruled by its people and
not the West on its behalf. This Baghdadi standpoint found its translation in
Karbala, where two protesters were killed, and ten were injured before they set
fire to the Badr Organization office, one of the militias under the Popular
Mobilization Forces, and later broke into the governorate building.
What was and still is astonishing, is that this happened after Qassem
Soleimani’s death was predicted to be the end of the Iraqi revolution.
Simultaneously, without being blackmailed by Soleimani’s death and in a “No
voice is louder than the voice of battle against the US” ambiance, the Lebanese
revolution retrieved the heat it had in its first days, and the revolutionary
style returned to the streets of Beirut.
This is no doubt a difficult task, and if the regional - civil binary succeeded,
the rebels would fail. The new factor is once again Tehran. As a result of this
factor, one can legitimately doubt the luck of this binary. Those brave young
Iranians decided not to participate in Soleimani’s funeral, and instead
participate in the ceremonies honoring the victims in the civilian aircraft who
were killed in the name of avenging Soleimani. They ripped apart photos of the
military leader and demanded that the spiritual and political leader leaves.
They demanded death to the “dictator” and the idea of “al-Wali al-Faqih”. They
also called the Revolutionary Guard Corps ISIS. If this wave escalates at the
heart of the Empire, the role of the “regional” will weaken along with its
capacity to summon the civil in the Empire’s periphery. If that happens, then in
Charles Dickens’s words, we can say that “the best of times” could beat its
“worst”.
Funding Lebanon is Funding Hezbollah
A.J. Caschetta/The Jerusalem Post/January 15/2020
Like it or not, Hezbollah has a lock on Lebanon.
December 2019 was a bizarre month in America's nearly four-decade-long struggle
with Hezbollah. It ended with the US embassy in Baghdad under attack by one form
of Hezbollah angry at the deaths of their comrades killed in Iraq and Syria on
December 29. The Trump administration killed their comrades in another form of
Hezbollah because they killed an American contractor and wounded others in
Kirkuk on December 27. What makes this so weird is that the month began quite
differently when on December 6 the US sent $105 million to Lebanon, a country
controlled by Hezbollah.
After the Trump administration withheld $105 million in aid to Lebanon's
military in late September, the Washington press corps thought it smelled
another Ukraine-style Trump scandal. The New York Times complained that Trump
"officials halted the funding to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), which
Congress, the Pentagon and the State Department had approved, at a critical
time."
U.S. media outlets have missed the reality that Iran runs Lebanon like a Shia
colony.
The Los Angeles Times fretted that Trump was withholding money precisely as
Lebanon "convulses under an unprecedented wave of anti-government protests" and
announced that Lebanon's army is "viewed as a guarantor of stability."
The Washington Post assured its readers that "there is little to no evidence to
suggest that the LAF actively cooperates with Hezbollah." The qualifiers "little
to no" and the adverb "actively" betray an editorial caution that imply some
evidence of at least passive LAF-Hezbollah cooperation.
Somehow each of these media outlets has missed the reality that Iran runs
Lebanon like the Shia colony it has become. Up until he was killed on January 2,
Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran's al-Quds Force, traveled freely to and
throughout Lebanon like a Persian general keeping a watchful eye on the
indigenous regiments in the northernmost satrapy of his master's empire. One of
that empire's most reliable tools is Hezbollah, which controls the Lebanese
government.
Michel Aoun wouldn't be president without Hezbollah's support.
Under Lebanon's "confessional" government, the speaker of the parliament is
always a Shia Muslim, the president is a Maronite Christian, and the prime
minister is a Sunni Muslim. Nabih Berri, the Amal movement party leader, is the
speaker of a parliament controlled by Hezbollah. Lebanon's president, Michel
Aoun, wouldn't be president without Hezbollah's approval, which he first earned
in 2006 by allying his Free Patriotic Movement to the Shia terrorist
organization. He supported Hezbollah in its 2007 war against Israel and in turn
has enjoyed its support ever since. Lebanon had no prime minister for since Saad
Hariri resigned in October. Then Aoun announced on December 19 that he had
chosen Hassan Diab, a Hezbollah favorite, to be the new prime minister. Of
course, the Hezbollah-controlled parliament approved with a majority vote.
The Lebanese government is the Hezbollah government.
"There has been no state of Lebanon for some time now," as Mordechai Kedar of
the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies says, for Hezbollah controls
everything; Lebanon's "parliament, government, president, and all of the other
state institutions are nothing more than a façade for players directed by
[Hassan] Nasrallah."
Nations give arms and cash to other nations for self-interested reasons.
Since 2006, the US has sent over $1.7 billion to the Lebanese Armed Forces. What
has been achieved by this money, and what evidence is there that the LAF is
anything other than the "legal wing" of Hezbollah?
The current impeachment rhetoric notwithstanding, all foreign policy is a quid
pro quo. Unlike relief efforts, rescue missions and vaccination programs, which
are philanthropic endeavors undertaken out of altruism, nations give arms and
cash to foreign powers and train foreign troops for selfish reasons. If the
recipient isn't an ally and isn't willing to promote the donor nation's
interest, either directly or indirectly, it doesn't deserve the investment.
Egypt's American-funded military fights American foes.
Compare US aid to Lebanon with US aid to Egypt. The Egyptian military actually
does work to maintain stability in Egypt, exercising strong arm tactics against
Islamists and terrorists. Though far from fully representing American ideals or
always promoting America's interests, among the Egyptian military's mixed record
is a history of fighting American foes. For instance, since General Abdel Fattah
al-Sisi took over in 2013, the Egyptian military has on numerous occasions
flooded Hamas tunnels with sea water or raw sewage, killing an unknown number of
Hamas killers and hindering their missile-smuggling operations. The Egyptian
military has worked with the Israeli military in operations against ISIS in the
Sinai Peninsula. Maybe this is why Trump called Sisi his "favorite dictator."
US investments in Egypt have paid much better returns than those in other parts
of the Muslim world. For well over a decade, Pakistan not only squandered US
cash and did very little to promote our interests, but also lied to us about
many things – the Taliban, the Haqqanis, the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden.
Perhaps the most absurd comment about aid to Lebanon came from former US
ambassador to Lebanon Jeffrey Feltman who told the House Foreign Affairs
Committee in November that aid to the LAF should be restored "because of the
program's merit in terms of improving the LAF's counterterrorism performance."
This is laughable. If the LAF is not fighting Hezbollah it is not engaging in
any meaningful counterterrorism.
Lebanon's military should receive more U.S. aid only after it establishes a
record of killing Hezbollah terrorists.
When the LAF establishes a record of killing Hezbollah terrorists, it will have
earned a second chance at American aid. Until then, Lebanon should be recognized
as a Hezbollah stronghold, the northern frontier of the Iran's Shia Empire.
Congress, the Pentagon and the State Department may think that sending money to
Lebanon is a good idea, but it isn't. Sending money to Lebanon means sending
money to Hezbollah. It's that simple.
*A.J. Caschetta is a Ginsberg-Ingerman fellow at the Middle East Forum and a
principal lecturer at the Rochester Institute of Technology.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on January 15-16/2020
Iran social media posts call for fifth day
of protests
Reuters, Dubai/Wednesday, 15 January 2020
Iranian social media postings urged citizens to take to the streets for a fifth
day on Wednesday, after the admission by the authorities that they had
accidentally brought down a passenger plane after days of denials stoked public
outrage. “We’re coming to the streets,” one posting circulating on social media
said, urging people to join nationwide demonstrations against a “thieving and
corrupt government”. Another post called for protests in the city of Hamedan.
Protests, with students at the forefront, erupted on Saturday when the military
said it had shot down a Ukrainian plane in error at a time when the country was
on high alert for US reprisals after tit-for-tat military strikes.
Zarif Says Not Interested in Negotiations With US, Rouhani Criticizes EU
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 15 January, 2020
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on Wednesday rejected any direct
nuclear negotiations with Washington. Speaking at a security conference in New
Delhi, he said he wasn't sure how long any pact by US President Donald Trump
would last. "We had a US deal and the US broke it. If we have a Trump deal, how
long will it last, another 10 months...?", he said. Zarif noted that the
country's 2015 nuclear deal signed with major powers - China, Russia, France,
Britain, the US and Germany - to curb its nuclear program is 'not dead'. "No,
it's not dead. It's not dead," Zarif told Reuters on the sidelines of the
conference. He noted that the 2015 deal is among the "best deals" he could
imagine. Earlier on Tuesday, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson called on Trump to
replace the Iranian nuclear deal with his own new pact to ensure that Iran does
not get an atomic weapon, to which the US president has agreed. Meanwhile,
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani criticized the US and EU for breaking their
promises. He dismissed a proposal for any new "Trump deal," saying it was a
"strange" offer. In a televised speech on Wednesday, Rouhani said that EU has
failed to act as an independent block, saying it should apologize to Tehran for
its failures to keep its promises. He stressed that also Trump has always broken
promises. Rouhani further warned that EU soldiers in the Mideast “could be in
danger.”"Today, the US soldier is in danger, tomorrow the European soldier could
be in danger,” Rouhani said without elaborating.
He called on Washington to return to the 2015 nuclear pact, adding that Tehran
could reverse its moves to scale back its commitments under the deal. According
to Reuters, Trump in 2018 abandoned the nuclear agreement reached under
predecessor Barack Obama, saying it was too weak and that new sanctions would
force Iran to accept more stringent terms.However, Iran refuses to negotiate
under imposed sanctions.
Iranians Take to the Streets to Reject Repression
Tehran- Hussam Itani/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 15 January, 2020
Only a week after the funeral procession of Iran’s top general, Qassem Soleimani—an
event that supposedly united the public—demonstrations flared up in Tehran’s
streets against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard shooting down of a Ukrainian
airliner. The January 11 protests took place after a little over two months of
the mass November demonstrations which were met by a fierce government crackdown
that resulted in hundreds of dead Iranians. Estimates set by human rights
organizations and foreign news agencies show that the campaign of government
oppression has resulted in 300-1500 deaths, in addition to thousands of wounded
and detainees. The return of the protesters to the street despite security
services deliberately killing protesters says a lot. It shows that the element
of fear that the regime has gambled on has collapsed, and proves the courage of
the demonstrators who chant against the “dictator.”
Iranians are voicing their rejection of the regime’s interference in the affairs
of others and funding of foreign militias. The Supreme Leader's lack of a plan
to stop the repercussions of stifling US sanctions on the entire economy has
also fueled protests where the ordinary citizen voiced their frustration with
the overall situation in the country. Not only does the regime refuse to
reconsider ways it spends the country's resources, which are scarce due to oil
sanctions, but it also allows for corrupt authorities to control the more
lucrative economic sectors, such as communications and contracting. Those two
sectors are controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard which has been blamed
for inhibiting the fair distribution of the burden of the crisis across the
population.More so, the increase in fuel prices showed that authorities in Iran
do not mind burdening the poor and middle classes while the wealthy associated
with the regime maintain all their privileges.
Britain's ambassador leaves Iran after brief detention
The Associated Press, Tehran/Wednesday, 15 January 2020
The British ambassador to Iran has left the country after being arrested and
briefly detained, stated Iranian state-run media.The official IRNA news agency
said Robert Macaire left after being given prior notice. The report did not
elaborate. Macaire had been held after attending a candlelight vigil Saturday in
Tehran over Iran shooting down a Ukrainian jetliner, killing 176 people. The
vigil quickly turned into an anti-government protest and Macaire left shortly
after, only to be arrested by police.
Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei to lead Friday prayers for
first time since 2012
AFP, Tehran/Wednesday, 15 January 2020
Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei will lead the main weekly Muslim prayers in
Tehran this week, state news agency IRNA reported on Wednesday. Khamenei is
officially the imam of Tehran but usually delegates the task of leading Friday
prayers to others. The last time he led Friday prayers at Tehran’s Mosalla
mosque was in February 2012, on the 33rd anniversary of the Islamic revolution
and at a time of crisis over the Iran nuclear issue.
US expects UN sanctions on Iran to ‘snap back into place’:
Treasury Secretary
Reuters, Washington/Wednesday, 15 January 2020
The United States believes international sanctions on Iran will be swiftly
reimposed now that France, Britain, and Germany have formally triggered a
mechanism to help enforce Iran’s nuclear agreement, Treasury Secretary Steven
Mnuchin said on Wednesday. “I’ve had very direct discussions - as well as
Secretary Pompeo has - with our counterparts,” Mnuchin told CNBC. “I think you
saw the E3 did put out the statement and have activated the dispute resolution.
And we look forward to working with them quickly and would expect that the UN
sanctions will snap back into place.”
Qatar Airways to continue to use Iranian airspace: CEO
Reuters, Kuwait/Wednesday, 15 January 2020
Qatar Airways will continue to fly to Iran and has not lost any bookings during
a recent spike in Middle East tensions, Chief Executive Akbar al-Baker said on
Wednesday. A number of flights to Tehran were canceled last week after the crash
of a Ukrainian airliner in Iran, which Tehran later admitted it had shot down by
mistake. Many airlines use Iranian airspace, including Qatar Airways which is
banned from flying over some neighboring Gulf Arab states.
Israeli Official Threatens IRGC With ‘Deadly Campaign’ in
Syria
Tel Aviv – Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 15 January, 2020
The circumstances that followed the assassination of the commander of al-Quds
Force, Qassem Soleimani, should be used to launch a “deadly offensive campaign
against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria,” said a prominent
Israeli security official. The official told a number of Israeli military
correspondents Tuesday, that he wants the complete elimination of IRGC and its
elements in the Syrian territories, which would weaken the entire Iranian
campaign directed against the Israeli entity. It was clear from the statements
of the official that the Israeli security services estimate the assassination of
Soleimani will change Iran's influence in the Middle East and open a window of
opportunity for Israel. “We can, and we must, take advantage of these
opportunities to put an end to the Iranian effort to establish a front against
Israel in Syria and Iraq,” said the official. Military analyst at the Yediot
Aharonot, Ron Ben-Yishai, pointed out that this theory is based on estimates in
Israel that the Iranian regime is struggling, knowing that the US economic
sanctions reduced the gross national product over 9 percent. Ben-Yishai added
that the Iranian regime received three strikes: the assassination of Soleimani,
the accidental downing of the Ukrainian passenger plane, and the attempt to hide
this accident. The analyst warned against feeling "arrogant" and said Iran has
not lost its capabilities to cause damage, undermine stability in the Middle
East, and threaten the global energy market. However, the regime has become less
confident of itself, appears confused, and is particularly afraid. The Iranian
response to the assassination by bombing two US bases in Iraq, which resulted in
minimal losses, confirms the belief that the Iranians, especially the current
regime, become cautious when force is exerted against them, according to the
analyst.
Ben-Yishai noted that after the Iraqi-Iranian war, the Iranian nation lost a
whole generation of young men, but history also shows that the people and their
leadership are well aware when the balance of powers is not in their interest.
It is then that they are deterred and begin reconsidering their options. Iran
will launch another wave of attacks aimed at pushing the US to withdraw from
Iraq, he said citing information gathered by intelligence services. He noted
that Tehran considers the US presence in Iraq a direct threat to the regime, and
prevents the direct activation and management of the Iranian axis in a way that
serves the economic, strategic, military, and religious interests of the
“ayatollah’s regime.”Ben-Yishai quoted high-ranking Israeli security sources as
saying that security services believe the assassination of Soleimani created a
“vacuum” in the Iranian regime.
Israel estimates that assassinations deter organizations, referring to the
aftermath of the assassination of the Islamic Jihad military leader in Gaza,
Baha Abu al-Ata, when the movement, along with Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah,
became very cautious, according to the military analyst on Walla website, Amir
Bohbot. Both Ben-Yishai and Bohbot quoted the Israeli security services
estimating that Soleimani’s successor, Ismail Qaani, does not have the
capabilities and characteristics of his predecessor.Qaani is not familiar with
the main players in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, and had worked primarily on
the secondary fronts where al-Quds Force is active, such as in Afghanistan and
Pakistan as well as logistical affairs.
Ukraine Asks Iran to Return Black Boxes From Crashed Plane
Kiev- Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 15 January, 2020
Ukraine’s prosecutor’s office and security service have asked Iranian
authorities to give Kiev black boxes from the crashed Ukrainian plane, the
prosecutors' office said on Wednesday. A top Ukraine security official said this
week that a senior investigator from Iran was expected to visit Ukraine soon and
determine whether a Ukrainian laboratory would be suitable to work on the black
boxes. Meanwhile, new video footage has emerged showing two Iranian missiles
tearing through the night sky and hitting the Ukrainian passenger plane, sending
the aircraft down in flames, and killing all 176 passengers and crew on board.
The projectiles were fired 30 seconds apart and explain why the plane's
transponder was not working as it hurtled to the ground -- it was disabled by
the first strike, before being hit by a second, said the New York Times, which
published the verified security camera footage Tuesday. The blurry film, shot
from a rooftop in a village four miles from an Iranian military site, shows the
Kiev-bound plane on fire and circling back to Tehran's airport, the Times said.
Minutes later, the aircraft exploded and crashed. Iran had for days denied
Western claims that the Boeing 737 had been downed by its missiles. Tehran came
clean on Saturday when Revolutionary Guards aerospace commander Brigadier
General Amirali Hajizadeh acknowledged a missile operator had mistaken the
Ukraine International Airlines plane for a cruise missile and opened fire.
The incident happened when Iran's armed forces were on heightened alert after
launching a volley of missiles at Iraqi bases hosting US troops in retaliation
for the killing of top general Qassem Soleimani on January 3. Iran has struggled
to contain the fallout over its handling of the air disaster and the tragedy has
seen hundreds of angry protesters, most of them students, take to the streets.
Iranian social media posts urged citizens to take to the streets for a fifth day
on Wednesday, after public anger erupted following the belated admission by the
authorities that they had shot down the passenger plane in error.
Protesters, with students at the forefront, have staged daily rallies in Tehran
and other cities since Saturday, when the authorities admitted their role in
bringing down the Ukrainian plane after days of denials. Some protests have been
met with a violent crackdown. Videos on social media have shown people being
beaten by riot police and shocked with electric batons. They also recorded
gunfire and blood on the ground. Most protests flared at night. “We’re coming to
the streets,” one posting circulating on social media said on Wednesday, urging
people to join nationwide demonstrations against a “thieving and corrupt
government”. Thousands of protesters have been shown in videos gathering in the
past four days in cities across Iran. Many have been outside universities, while
Tehran’s central Azadi Square has been a focus. But the full scale of protests
and unrest is difficult to determine due restrictions on independent reporting.
Police had denied shooting at protesters and say officers were told to show
restraint. The judiciary said it had arrested 30 people but would show tolerance
to “legal protests”.Iranians were outraged the military took days to admit it
had shot down Ukraine International Airlines flight 752, carrying mainly
Iranians or dual national. They asked why the plane had been allowed to take off
at a time of high tension.
- 'Real rift' -
Recent protests have been much smaller than nationwide demonstrations against
fuel price hikes that turned deadly in November. But one commentator said the
latest rallies showed there was a "real rift between the people and the
authorities". In another sign of growing dissent, a group of artists canceled
their participation in the Fajr festival, held each year on the anniversary of
the 1979 Islamic Revolution, according to Hamshahri newspaper. President Hassan
Rouhani said Tuesday Iran's judiciary "must form a special court with a
high-ranking judge and dozens of experts... The whole world will be watching."
"Anyone who should be punished must be punished".
Iranian proxy fighters killed in Syria by suspected Israeli
strike: Monitor
AFP, Beirut/Wednesday, 15 January 2020
A missile strike on a Syrian airbase that Damascus blamed on Israel killed at
least three Iran-backed militiamen, a monitor said on Wednesday. Four missiles
hit the T4 base in Homs province, north of the capital, at around 10:00 pm (2000
GMT) on Tuesday, state news agency SANA reported, blaming the attack on Israel.
It said the strike caused damage but no casualties. But the Britain-based Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights said at least three Iran-backed militiamen were
killed. It said the strike damaged an Iranian arms depot, two military vehicles
and a building still under construction. Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman said
the dead were all non-Syrians, adding that Israel was likely behind the attack.
He said both Iranian forces and Russian military advisers were stationed at the
base, which has been hit by Israeli forces in the past. An Israeli army
spokeswoman made no comment when contacted by AFP. The missile strike adds to
the growing tension in the Middle East after a US drone killed senior Iranian
commander Qasem Soleimani in a targeted strike in Baghdad on January 3. Since
the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, Israel has carried out many raids
against forces of the Syrian government and its allies, Iran and Lebanese
militant group Hezbollah. Israel insists it will not allow Syria to become a
bridgehead for Iranian intervention in the region.
Regime air raids kill 9 civilians despite Idlib truce:
Report
AFP, Beirut/Wednesday, 15 January 2020
Regime air strikes on Syria's last major opposition bastion killed nine
civilians on Wednesday, hitting a vegetable market despite a fresh
Russian-backed truce, a war monitor said. At least 20 other civilians were
wounded in the raids that struck a bustling area of Idlib city, capital of the
rebel-held province of the same name, said the Syrian Observatory for Human
Rights.
Turkey, Russia talks over ‘secure zone’ in Syria’s Idlib to
enforce ceasefire: Turkey
Reuters, Ankara/Wednesday, 15 January 2020
Turkey and Russia are discussing the establishment of a ‘secure zone’ within
Syria’s northwestern Idlib region where Syrians displaced by fighting can
shelter during the winter, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on
Wednesday. Syrian government attacks in the region were continuing despite a
ceasefire which came into effect three days ago, Akar told reporters in Ankara,
and Turkey was reinforcing an observation post which has been surrounded by
Syrian forces. The minister said Turkey has not received an official request
regarding a call by the Iraqi parliament on Jan. 5 for the withdrawal of foreign
troops.
US-Iran war would bring ‘untold chaos’ warns Jordan’s King
AFP, Strasbourg/Wednesday, 15 January 2020
A war between the US and Iran would wreak “untold chaos” on the world, Jordan’s
King Abdullah II warned Wednesday, in a speech to European lawmakers on the
tensions boiling across the Middle East. Although Washington and Tehran are
currently in a standoff after tit-for-tat military actions over the past two
weeks, the king told the European Parliament that the danger has not passed.
“What if next time neither side steps back from the brink, dragging us all
toward untold chaos? An all-out war jeopardizes the stability of the entire
region,” he said. “What’s more, it risks massive disruptions of the entire
global economy including markets, but threatens a resurgence of terrorism across
the world,” he added. The alarm was among a raft of other warnings by King
Abdullah, a pro-Western leader whose country is a haven of relative stability in
a Middle East roiled by proxy conflicts, sectarian violence, and competition
between powers inside and outside the region. Urging greater leadership and
“patience” to address the tensions, Abdullah expressed concern about
developments in Syria and Iraq. “What if Syria remains hostage to global
rivalries and spirals back into civil conflict? What if we see a reemergence of
ISIS and Syria becomes a staging ground for attacks against the rest of the
world?” he asked. Turmoil in Iraq, he said, risked tipping that country into a
cycle of “recovery and relapse - or, worse yet, conflict”.He also homed in on
Libya, one of the biggest foreign policy issues facing the EU along with Iran.
“What if Libya collapses into an all-out war, and ultimately a failed state?
What if Libya is the new Syria, just much closer to the continent you all call
home?” he asked, saying such scenarios needed to be addressed now to prevent
them becoming reality. The Jordanian monarch, who carries the hereditary title
of “custodian” of holy Muslim and Christian sites in Jerusalem, also stressed to
MEPs that Israel was trying to “impose an unthinkable solution” over
Palestinians as hopes fade for a two-state solution backed by the international
community. He said Israel’s construction of settlements in occupied Palestinian
territory and “disregard of international law” could be summed up as “one state
turning its back on its neighborhood, perpetuating divisions among peoples and
faiths worldwide”.
Sisi Inaugurates Bernice Military Base at Event Attended by Khalid bin Salman,
Abu Dhabi Crown Prince
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 15 January, 2020
Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi inaugurated on Wednesday the Bernice
military base on the Red Sea. The event was attended by Saudi Deputy Defense
Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme
Commander of the Armed Forces Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed and Armenian President
Armen Sarkissian. The inauguration was also attended by Egyptian parliament
Speaker Ali Abdul Aal, Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouli and Defense Minister
Mohammed Zaki. Described as the largest air and land base in the Middle East,
Bernice covers an area of 150,000 acres and overlooks the Red Sea coast on
Egypt’s southern border. It includes two tarmacs and a hangar to perform
maintenance operations on jets, reported Egypt’s official news agency. It boasts
many firing and training ranges for all weapons, in addition to a number of
logistic and housing facilities. It comprises a naval base, air base, military
hospital and a number of combat and administrative units. The base has already
witnessed a major military drill, Qadir 2020, that included the participation of
Mistral-class carriers, submarines, combat ships, amphibious units and various
fighters.In a tweet, Sheikh Mohamed said: “I was happy to accompany the Egyptian
President during the opening of the Berenice military base and civilian airport.
Such achievements reflect Egypt's vision of all-round development and enhance
its role in regional stability. We wish it more progress and prosperity.”
Doctors Without Borders’ Condemns Liquidation of Wounded
Patient in Taiz Hospital
Taiz- Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 15 January, 2020
Doctors Without Borders (MSF) has condemned the storming of a hospital it
supports in the Yemeni city of Taiz, central Yemen. The storming incident was
carried out by gunmen who liquidated a wounded patient who was receiving
treatment from earlier clashes. They entered the ER of al-Thawra General
Hospital in Taiz, shot and killed a patient, local and medical sources told
Asharq Al-Awsat. Sources said clashes erupted on Monday evening between soldiers
from the 170th Air Defense Brigade and the 17th Infantry Brigade in Taiz, caused
by the dispute over a piece of land. They resulted in the killing of at least
three soldiers from both sides and the injury of others. In a series of tweets,
MAS said multiple armed intrusions have occurred in Al-Thawra Hospital over the
past twelve months, ignoring repeated calls for humanitarian spaces to be
respected. “Pledges made to ensure the protection and safety of the medical
facilities and patients in Taiz need to be upheld,” it stressed. “This total
disregard of the humanitarian and medical nature of hospitals and health
facilities is unacceptable. Armed intrusions into hospitals need to end.”MSF
reiterated its call on all armed individuals and security personnel to respect
health facilities as humanitarian spaces and ensure medical staff, patients, and
caregivers are protected. It pointed out that this is the second incident in the
past three months. While the city is witnessing protests over the delay in
paying education sector employees their December salaries, Taiz Governor Nabil
Shamsan said it was due to the security situation in the temporary capital of
Aden. This situation has impeded the transfer of cash to Taiz, he said, noting
that the problem is to be resolved within the next few days. Shamsan met with
representatives of the professional and labor unions and discussed with them
this issue, according to official sources. “The local authority is working hard
and has held dozens of meetings with relevant government agencies to confirm
continued payment of salaries,” sources quoted the government as saying.
US Presses Sudanese FM for Reparations to Terror Victims
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 15 January, 2020
The United States has warned Sudan that payment of reparations for victims of
terrorism is a priority for Washington as it considers removing Khartoum from a
US blacklist. The number three official at the State Department, David Hale, met
in Washington on Tuesday with Sudanese Foreign Minister Asma Mohamed Abdalla,
Agence France Presse reported. They discussed "relevant policy and statutory
criteria for rescission of Sudan's State Sponsor of Terrorism designation,"
department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a statement. Since 1993 Sudan has
been on the list of countries the United States deems backers of terrorism for
having granted safe haven to Osama bin Laden, AFP said. But in recent years
Washington has allowed progressively warmer relations with Sudan, citing what it
called progress in the fight against terrorism, until in 2017 it lifted a
20-year-old economic embargo. Since the overthrow last April of longtime ruler
Omar al-Bashir and the emergence of a transitional government strongly backed by
Washington, the process of removing Sudan from the blacklist could go even
faster. For Sudan officials, who see winning Washington's blessing as important
for economic growth, removal from the list is key. Hale, whose is under
secretary for political affairs, believes that "compensation for the victims of
terrorism remains a priority for the US government," Ortagus said. Compensation
would essentially consist of financial reparations to families of people killed
or injured in attacks against the US embassies in Tanzania and Kenya that were
carried out by al-Qaeda in 1998. US judges have said Sudan is effectively to
blame for the blasts. During a historic visit to Washington in December,
Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok said progress was being made on this
sensitive issue. Court battles and negotiations are underway on damages, which
have been set by US courts in the billions of dollars. An appeal by Sudan is to
go before the Supreme Court in February.
Egypt orders retrial of monks sentenced to death for bishop’s murder
Arab News/January 15/2020
CAIRO: Egypt’s highest civilian court on Wednesday ordered a retrial of two
monks sentenced to death for murdering a bishop at a Coptic Christian monastery,
two judicial sources said on Wednesday. The 2018 killing of 64-year-old Bishop
Epiphanius, at Saint Macarius Monastery in the desert, rattled Egyptian Coptics
who make up about 10 percent of the predominantly Muslim population. Wael Saad,
known by his monastic name Isaiah Al-Makari, and Ramon Rasmi Mansour, known as
Faltaous Al-Makari, were convicted by a criminal court last year. Both had
pleaded innocent. Prosecutors said Saad, who had a history of differences with
superiors, struck the bishop three times in the back of the head with a steel
pipe while Mansour stood guard outside. But the judicial sources told Reuters
the cassation court abolished the death sentence after an appeal from the monks
and will hear the case itself next April. Its rulings are final. At the first
trial, prosecutors and witnesses said Saad had been investigated for breaking
monastic rules, including by trying to buy and sell land. He was defrocked in
2018. After the murder, both men tried unsuccessfully to commit suicide, Saad by
poisoning himself and Mansour by jumping off the monastery roof.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 15-16/2020
Iran’s Grim Economy Limits Its Willingness to Confront the
US
Peter S. Goodman/The New York Times/January, 15/2020
Iran is caught in a wretched economic crisis. Jobs are scarce. Prices for food
and other necessities are skyrocketing. The economy is rapidly shrinking.
Iranians are increasingly disgusted.
Crippling sanctions imposed by the Trump administration have severed Iran’s
access to international markets, decimating the economy, which is now
contracting at an alarming 9.5 percent annual rate, the International Monetary
Fund estimated. Oil exports were effectively zero in December, according to
Oxford Economics, as the sanctions have prevented sales, even though smugglers
have transported unknown volumes. The bleak economy appears to be tempering the
willingness of Iran to escalate hostilities with the United States, its leaders
cognizant that war could profoundly worsen national fortunes. In recent months,
public anger over joblessness, economic anxiety and corruption has emerged as a
potentially existential threat to Iran’s regime.
Protests flared anew over the weekend in Tehran, and then continued on Monday,
after the government’s astonishing admission that it was — despite three days of
denial — responsible for shooting down a Ukrainian jetliner.
The demonstrations were most pointedly an expression of contempt for the
regime’s cover-up following its downing of the Ukrainian jet, which killed all
176 people on board. But the fury in the streets resonated as a rebuke for
broader grievances — diminishing livelihoods, financial anxiety and the sense
that the regime is at best impotent in the face of formidable troubles.
Inflation is running near 40 percent, assailing consumers with sharply rising
prices for food and other basic necessities. More than one in four young
Iranians is jobless, with college graduates especially short of work, according
to the World Bank.
The missile strikes that Iran unleashed on US bases in Iraq last week in
response to Gen. Suleimani’s killing appeared calibrated to enable its leaders
to declare that vengeance had been secured without provoking an extreme response
from President Trump.
Hostilities with the most powerful military on earth would make life even more
punishing for ordinary Iranians. It would likely weaken the currency and
exacerbate inflation, while menacing what remains of national industry,
eliminating jobs and reinvigorating public pressure on the leadership.
Conflict could threaten a run on domestic banks by sending more companies into
distress. Iranian companies have been spared from collapse by surges of credit
from banks. The government controls about 70 percent of banking assets,
according to studies. also, roughly half of all bank loans are in arrears,
Iran’s Parliament has estimated.
Many Iranian companies depend on imported goods to make and sell products, from
machinery to steel to grain. If Iran’s currency declines further, those
companies would have to pay more for such goods. Banks would either have to
extend more loans, or businesses would collapse, adding to the ranks of the
jobless. The central bank has been financing government spending, filling holes
in a tattered budget to limit public ire over cuts. That entails printing
Iranian money, adding to the strains on the currency. A war could prompt
wealthier Iranians to yank assets out of the country, threatening a further
decline in the currency and producing runaway inflation. In sum, this is the
unpalatable choice confronting the Iranian leadership: It can keep the economy
going by continuing to steer credit to banks and industry, adding to the risks
of an eventual banking disaster and hyperinflation. Or it can opt for austerity
that would cause immediate public suffering, threatening more street
demonstrations.
Though such realities appear to be limiting Iran’s appetite for escalation, some
experts suggest that the regime’s hard-liners may eventually come to embrace
hostilities with the US as a means of stimulating the anemic economy.
Iran has in recent years focused on forging a so-called resistance economy in
which the state has invested aggressively, subsidizing strategic industries,
while seeking to substitute domestic production for imported goods. That
strategy has been inefficient, say economists, adding to the strains on Iran’s
budget and the banking system, but it appears to have raised employment.
“There will be those who will argue that we can’t sustain the current situation
if we don’t have a war,” said Yassamine Mather, a political economist at the
University of Oxford. “For the Iranian government, living in crisis is good.
It’s always been good, because you can blame all the economic problems on
sanctions, or on the foreign threat of war. In the last couple of years, Iran
has looked for adventures as a way of diverting attention from economic
problems.”
However Iran’s leaders proceed, experts assume that economic concerns will not
be paramount: Iran’s leaders prioritize one goal above all others — their own
survival. If confrontation with outside powers appears promising as a means of
reinforcing their hold on power, the leadership may accept economic pain as a
necessary cost. “The hard-liners are willing to impoverish people to stay in
power,” said Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa
program at Chatham House, a research institution in London. “The Islamic
Republic does not make decisions based on purely economic outcomes.”
But Iran’s leaders need only survey their own region to recognize the dangers
that economic distress can pose to established powers. In recent months, Iraq
and Lebanon have seen furious demonstrations fueled in part by declining living
standards amid corruption and abuse of power.
As recently as November, Iran’s perilous economic state appeared to pose a
foundational threat to the regime. As the government scrambled to secure cash to
finance aid for the poor and the jobless, it scrapped subsidies on gasoline,
sending the price of fuel soaring by as much as 200 percent. That spurred angry
protests in the streets of Iranian cities, with demonstrators openly calling for
the expulsion of President Hassan Rouhani.
“That’s a sign of how much pressure they are under,” said Maya Senussi, a Middle
East expert at Oxford Economics in London. In unleashing the drone strike that
killed General Suleimani, Trump effectively relieved the leadership of that
pressure, undercutting the force of his own sanctions, say experts.
For now, the regime is seeking to quash the demonstrations with riot police and
admonitions to the protesters to go home. But if public rage continues,
hard-liners may resort to challenging US interests in the hopes that
confrontation will force Trump to negotiate a deal toward eliminating the
sanctions.
Europe’s Center-Left Learns to Live After Death
Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/January, 15/2020
After Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party suffered a painful defeat in the recent UK
election, it’s easy to criticize the European center-left for being poorly led
and out of touch with voters. Germany, Italy and other countries easily spring
to mind. But the embattled center-left actually held its own in Europe this
year, mainly thanks to its skill at governing and backroom politics rather than
any exciting ideas it’s been able to offer voters. It even appeared to get a new
lease on life in some countries — but as a zombie. Indeed, Corbyn's radical
nationalization plans scared many British voters worse than Brexit, on which the
Labour leader wouldn’t take a stand. It can’t be denied that the German Social
Democratic Party is in freefall, that the moderate left in France looks dead, or
that ultranationalist forces have overtaken the venerable center-left parties in
Swedish and Finnish polls. And yet on average, moderate socialist forces aren’t
polling much worse in Europe than at the end of last year. The average drop in
their support is about 0.6 percentage point.
A Glimmer in the East
Averages aren’t necessarily telling. But Europe is a complex quilt, and while in
some of the bigger nations the center-left is in retreat, elsewhere their
popularity has bounced off the bottom. In a number of post-Communist nations,
left-wing forces are polling better than at the end of last year. Poland, where
the united left did unexpectedly well in this year’s parliamentary election
after years of being out of contention, is one example. The center-left also is
up slightly in the Czech Republic and considerably in Lithuania. In Croatia, the
Social Democratic Party is catching up to the center-right, and its candidate,
former prime minister Zoran Milanovic, has just won the first round of the
presidential election. He’s been calling for a more tolerant, less nationalistic
government. That, of course, is only a slight bounce in countries that rarely
make headlines. And far be it from me to root for leftists in Eastern Europe,
where a radical form of the ideology has wreaked havoc. Yet the improved
performance of the moderate left does signify a certain softening in countries
that swung decisively to the right during the last decade. The pendulum won’t
swing back overnight, but it’s important to know that people who are working on
it aren’t entirely unsuccessful.
Playing the System
In some countries, the center-left’s relatively solid performance this year is
really nothing to celebrate. Parties hit by major corruption scandals have
proved remarkably resilient. In Malta, Prime Minister Joseph Muscat is leaving
in January after a number of his allies had their reputations sullied by
association with an oligarch suspected of ordering an investigative journalist’s
murder. But the ruling Labour Party still has majority support. In Slovakia,
too, the ruling center-left party, Smer, is still the most popular despite being
damaged by an uncannily similar chain of events last year.
The only explanation for this tenacity is the high degree of control these
parties exercise over their countries’ political machinery. It has nothing to do
with the popularity of leftist ideas, just with the backroom skills of nominally
socialist leaders. Where scandal-hit parties don’t have such a firm hold on the
levers, they have slipped. In Romania, the Social Democratic Party’s awful
record on fighting corruption caused its government to collapse and the party
itself to fall from first to second in nationwide polls. In Finland, the
bungling of former prime minister Antti Rinne, who mishandled a postal strike,
didn’t kill the left-leaning governing coalition only because the other parties
in it were willing to support his 34-year-old deputy Sanna Marin in his place.
Marin is one of three center-left prime ministers who headed up their European
nations this year; the other two also are from Nordic nations — Sweden’s Stefan
Lofven and Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen. Like Marin, they didn’t come to power as
a result of convincing election victories. Lofven appeared to have been ousted
in last year’s national election, but he came back early this year as the only
compromise candidate who could put together a governing coalition. Frederiksen’s
Social Democrats actually did worse in this year’s election than in the last
one, but her minority government is hanging on thanks to her cool common-sense
style.
The Social Democrats’ ability to scrounge political victories despite being
relatively unpopular is an important asset. It’s the reason Germany’s unhappy
governing coalition hasn’t broken down yet despite a series of increasingly
desperate leadership changes in the Social Democratic Party, the junior partner
in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government. Merkel, who wants to serve out her
term, has a little less than two years to go, and she’s allowed the Social
Democrats to play an oversize role in policy-making for stability’s sake. The
same center-left tenacity has landed Italy’s Democratic Party in government
after far-right leader Matteo Salvini overplayed his hand by trying to force an
early election, and his party’s coalition partner, the leftist-populist Five
Star Movement, opted for a deal with the Democrats instead. And the same ability
to play a bad hand well is sustaining Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez,
still working on staying in power after a disappointing election result. (I’m
not a fan, by the way, of comparing parties’ current election results with those
from the 20th century; the world has changed, niche consumption is the order of
the day not just in politics, and the days of outright victories in proportional
representation systems are gone for good). This capacity for hanging on by the
skin of their teeth in ugly political situations in which they have little
popular support isn’t admirable. Europe doesn’t really need more leaders without
a strong popular mandate. When people protest against bland government by voting
for the far-right but the center-left manage to win power through backroom
maneuvering, that tends to strengthen the ultranationalists, as the polls in
Sweden and Finland and the results of the latest election in Spain have clearly
shown. But the ability to play the system as skillfully as politicians from the
establishment left often do is nothing to sneeze at. Politics and government are
professions, and these are professionals, good at negotiating, making
compromises and avoiding chaos. Voters may despise people with these skills, but
potential coalition partners shouldn’t discount them.
Voters Wanted
The important question for the European center-left is whether it really wants
to turn into a supplier of adults-in-the-room and top-flight negotiators to
fractious coalitions in which they don’t really call the shots because they lack
the requisite popular support. All the fundamental reasons why the moderate left
is eroding, no matter how slowly, are still there: The decline of the labor
unions, relatively strong social safety nets in Western Europe, young voters’
search for clarity and simple answers. Going for more courageous leftist ideas,
which I thought last year might be the ticket, has proved difficult. Corbyn was
caught in that trap: His ideas were far too radical for British voters. In fact,
radical left parties that support big reforms like the universal basic income or
high wealth taxes haven’t done well this year. The hard-left group in the
European Parliament, GUE/NGL, went to 38 seats in the European Parliament after
this year’s election from 52 in the previous one. So what is there for the
moderate left to do except wait for the next economic crisis, which might make
their agenda of better worker protections more relevant? One answer, of course,
is to search for more charismatic, younger leaders who might impress young
voters. But that’s easier said than done. In the meantime, pacts with the
hard-left in which the moderates play a calming, stabilizing role can be a
working formula. Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa’s Socialist Party
improved its share of the vote this year after governing for a term with the
Communists and the relatively radical Left Bloc. In Spain, Sanchez is trying to
recreate that success by forming an alliance with the more radical Podemos
party. Alliances between the traditional hard-left, the green-left and the
moderate left are still relatively rare, although such coalitions operate not
just in southern Europe but also in a number of German states. Turning such
marriages of convenience into electoral blocs wouldn’t be easy, but it holds the
prospect of creating more dynamic, younger leftist political forces that, at the
same time, don’t scare off the more cautious voters thanks to the presence of
sober, skillful political professionals.
It’s something to try, anyway; the alternative appears to be slow dying.
Turkish Voters – and Putin – Will Restrain Erdogan’s Libya
Ambitions
Aykan Erdemir and Brenna Knippen/Al Arabiya/January 15/2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to turn the tide of the civil war
in Libya, but the pushback from the Turkish electorate – and Russian President
Vladimir Putin – is likely to restrain his military ambitions overseas.
Erdogan has a reputation for unexpected foreign policy moves, and backing them
by the use of military force, as he has proved with his three cross-border
operations into northern Syria, targeting Washington’s Syrian Kurdish partners
in 2016, 2018, and 2019. The pretext of fighting the Syrian affiliates of the
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), designated as terrorist by Turkey, the US and
the European Union, helped him mobilize widespread support from not only
Turkey’s otherwise-polarized electorate, but also opposition parties.
Since Erdogan lacks a similar counterterrorism pretext in Libya, he has had a
more difficult time to convince the Turkish public this time around. One opinion
poll shows that 50 percent of Turkish citizens are against sending troops to
Libya, whereas another one puts the figure as high as 58 percent. Even in
Erdogan’s own Justice and Development Party (AKP), only 56 percent of voters
support involving Turkey in another regional conflict.
The skeptical mood is also evident in the fact that two opposition parties, the
secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the nationalist Good Party (IYI),
which both felt compelled to support the previous cross-border operations into
Syria, voted against deploying troops to Libya, leading to 184 nays and 80
abstentions to Erdogan’s bill. Meral Aksener, IYI leader known for her
nationalist credentials, called the troop deployment a “threat to our national
security that would needlessly endanger the lives of our troops.”
While operations into Syria could be justified by its proximity to the Turkish
territory, and the ostensible threats posed by non-state actors present there,
the physical distance from Libya and the lack of any immediate threat make any
military involvement less palatable for the Turkish electorate. The government’s
talking point that Libya is crucial to defend the “Blue Homeland,” Turkey’s
maximalist maritime ambitions in the Mediterranean, has failed to win voters
over. The pushback from Libya’s neighbors Algeria and Tunisia, which have
explicitly voiced their unwillingness to let Erdogan use their bases as launch
pads for his plans, complicate things even further.
Add to that the rising tensions in the Middle East. Erdogan’s decision to open a
new front in the Mediterranean, and spread Turkish forces thin between two
challenging battlefields in Syria and Libya, erodes his support further. After
announcing in a recent interview that Turkish soldiers were “already going
gradually” to Libya, Erdogan has since changed the policy to include only
advisory and training roles.
Given the resistance at home, Erdogan has decided to use mercenaries airlifted
from Syria. The Turkish president is dispatching members of the Free Syrian Army
he has utilized in his recent Syria operations, reportedly promising
$1,500-a-month pay as well as fast track to Turkish citizenship. If Sunday’s
ceasefire fails and the harsh realities of the Libyan battlefield force Erdogan
to supplement his hired guns with Turkish combat forces, it will exacerbate the
electoral backlash and his legitimacy deficit back in Turkey.
Russia, and its stakes in Libya, pose yet another challenge to Erdogan’s
ambitions. The Turkish president received his Russian counterpart in Istanbul on
January 8 to inaugurate the Turkstream natural gas pipeline, a major
collaboration between the two allies that will link the two countries under the
Black Sea. Outside the significant implications of Turkey’s increased economic
dependency on Russia, Putin’s brief visit was all the more noteworthy due to
Erdogan’s decision to bolster his military footprint in Libya. The pair held
closed-door meetings on the sidelines of the ceremony to discuss Turkey’s recent
decision to deploy troops to Libya, where Russia and Turkey back opposing blocs.
Erdogan knows that some type of settlement with Putin is necessary to pursue his
geopolitical ambitions, a lesson he learned the hard way in Syria.
The pair seemed to have come to an agreement, as the Russian and Turkish foreign
ministers issued a joint statement that called for a ceasefire in Libya
beginning midnight of January 12, adding that both sides sought a political
settlement to the conflict. Erdogan, who first commended Monday’s peace talks in
Moscow between Libya’s warring factions, then hurled threats at Haftar for
abandoning the negotiations. Given the increasing backlash to his Libya
adventurism back home, and ahead of the upcoming Berlin summit to end the strife
in Libya, a Russian-brokered ceasefire deal could have provided Erdogan an
off-ramp. This would have allowed the Turkish president to boast of his role as
mediator in the conflict and provided him a seat at the table in any future
international negotiations, while walking back from his move to deploy Turkish
troops.
The Moscow talks show that 2020 will continue the trend of deepened cooperation
between Erdogan and Putin. Turkey purchased the S-400 missile defense system
from Russia last summer, much to the chagrin of the international community, as
well as negotiated a ceasefire following Turkey’s incursion into northern Syria
this past October. Their partnership in this new arena demonstrates that despite
being on opposite sides of the fighting in Syria and Libya, the Turkish and
Russian presidents have an uncanny ability to cut deals. However, it is unclear
whether these bargains can hold, and thereby remedy Erdogan’s troubles at home
and abroad.
*Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish parliament and the senior
director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He
tweets @aykan_erdemir.
*Brenna Knippen is a research associate at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies. She tweets @brenna_knippen.
Iranians need to seek change, not revenge in 2020s
Howard Leedham/Arab News/January 15/2020
In the wake of Qassem Soleimani’s death this month, the world breathed a sigh of
relief that there were no casualties inflicted by Iran’s retaliatory missile
attacks on the Iraqi military bases at Ain Al-Assad and Irbil, which house
hundreds of US Army personnel.
There is no doubt that, if a quagmire is to be avoided, restraint is required on
all sides. Sadly, there are still calls for revenge coming from some quarters,
but those seeking it might perhaps consider the instructive proverb: “He that
would take revenge better dig two graves.” Frankly, there was probably never a
truer saying for Iran to consider.
As the 2020s began with such turmoil, perhaps there is some solace to be had for
the majority of Iranians who are looking to the future. This coming decade will
bring about at least two near-certainties.
The first is that, by the time this decade is complete, neither US President
Donald Trump nor Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will be in power. Trump, even if he
wins the election in 2020, will be forced to relinquish the presidency in
January 2025. Khamenei, at the age of 80, is already beyond the male life
expectancy in Iran, which is 76 years, so he is now on an unavoidable,
progressively accelerative path to frailty.
The second certainty is that, in the early 2020s, the Iranian people, along with
the rest of us, will experience a wireless connectivity game-changer.
“Constellation Wi-Fi” will become the norm and will revolutionize connectivity
for Iran’s youthful and connected population.
During the 2020s, the space internet race will truly begin in earnest. SpaceX
will launch 12,000 satellites in order to provide global Wi-Fi coverage, while
Amazon and the UK’s OneWeb plan a further 5,000 satellites, and then there is
TeleSat and LeoSat, which have similar plans. The World Economic Forum
conservatively estimates an increase from 2,000 to 20,000 satellites, which will
enable global reach for terrestrial mobile broadband and 5G. Propagation speeds
will be highly increased, not least because the signal travels faster in the
vacuum of space than via fiber-optic lines and, although jamming the signal is
possible, applications to bypass such blocks are already advanced.
Iran’s mourning of Soleimani this month was broadcast worldwide. The irony will
not be lost on many that, less than two months earlier and on the very same
Iranian streets, protests against the government’s shock hike in fuel prices
were brutally repressed under a complete Wi-Fi, internet, news and social media
blackout that enabled the regime to purportedly kill around 1500 protesters and
arrest thousands, all without international witness.
What is for sure is that, now that the crowds no longer gather for Soleimani,
the Iranian regime will revert back to the only style of governing it knows, and
the problems of the past will again become paramount to the majority of the
country’s population.
Within two years, the “cut internet” defense when the people protest for change
will become an increasingly impossible challenge for the Iranian regime. The
public’s communications amid any pivotal event in the country will be
increasingly difficult to suppress.
Now that the crowds no longer gather for Soleimani, the Iranian regime will
revert back to the only style of governing it knows
These advances aside, it is likely that a typical regime response to civil
unrest will continue to demonstrate that the Iranian people are justified in
being scared of their government and not the other way around. Ironically, this
demonstrates in practice the famous quote: “When government fears the people,
there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny.”
Even given the death of Soleimani, the sense from the outside looking in is that
the average Iranian citizen continues to crave liberty. So, while the government
now ponders a revenge from which its people would almost certainly suffer
increased domestic hardship, the clock ticks and, minute by minute, technology
advances and the supreme leader gets older and less in touch with his youthful
and intelligent population.
All but the few who derive power from regional instability hope for an end to
the skullduggery, attacks, piracy, antagonism and now revenge that are generated
from within the Iranian regime. The certainties of the next decade will, at
several junctures, provide opportunities for the emergence of an open and
amicable Iran to rejoin the international community. Soleimani’s death,
whichever way it is viewed, should not distract from this.
The people of Iran are guaranteed pivotal change by mortality and due process at
home and abroad. To that end, the majority of Iranians must be urged to opt for
the “high road” and to concentrate on their own house, alongside the
technological certainties that will bring them opportunity.
I would rather not think of a potential “Persian Revenge,” from which there will
evolve no winners, but rather a “Persian Spring” that, under an envelope of
uninterrupted public communication, brings about an opportunity for a U-turn.
This would enable Iran to rejoin the international community, ending a 40-year
theocracy experiment that has disrupted and isolated the country, caused
distrust and conflict in the region and forced millions of Iranians to live in
the diaspora. Progressive Iranians know only too well that the only way to go
forward is to make change happen, and revenge won’t do that — it would simply
create more misery, more discontent.
These coming months will be crucial, but the decade even more so, not least
because there will be a realization on all sides that it offers pivotal change
and an opportunity for Iran and its people. So, instead of digging two graves, I
for one hope they grasp the certainties the 2020s can offer and dig none.
• Howard Leedham MBE is a former Royal Navy Commander and British Special Forces
Officer. Twitter: @howardleedham
Why Israeli left’s Arab snub may not be a bad thing
Ray Hanania/Arab News/January 15/2020
If Palestinian voters in Israel ever needed a reminder that they must speak up
for themselves, it was this week, when the two largest liberal Israeli parties
decided to merge without giving a top-10 election spot to an Arab member.
The leaders of the once-powerful Labor Party and Meretz, which has touted its
Jewish-Arab partnership, merged this week into one political party in the hope
of winning more seats in the March 2 election and finally unseating besieged
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In the elections held in April and September last year, no clear winner emerged,
with the right-wing conservative coalition led by Netanyahu battling for control
with the center-left liberal coalition headed by Benny Gantz. Neither alliance
has been able to form a coalition government that controls the necessary 61
Knesset seats.
Netanyahu is desperate because he is facing three indictments on charges of
corruption and has been unable to negotiate an immunity deal that would prevent
him from facing criminal charges. However, the corruption allegations have not
sparked a backlash strong enough to see him voted out of office.
The deadlocked Israeli parties on the right and the left have now decided to
consolidate their candidate lists to strengthen their appeal among Israel’s
Jewish voters. And they have done so at the expense of Palestinian voters,
including those who have been loyal to the Israeli system by participating in
and supporting Zionist organizations and parties like Meretz and Labor.
For years, Palestinians living in Israel have been excluded and marginalized by
the right but, as the risk of another stalemate in the upcoming election
increases, the left has also decided to come together without the support of
Arab leaders. The new left-wing alliance, which will support Gantz’s coalition,
is headed by Labor chairman Amir Peretz. A former defense minister, Peretz
called the move of uniting Labor with Meretz “a partnership of change and hope.”
The Palestinian community still has an obligation to do what is right and
advocate for peace based on equality
While Palestinians have been pushed out of right-wing alliances over the years,
they have traditionally found support and sympathy in left-wing parties like
Labor and especially Meretz, which has always advocated for a two-state solution
and has slated Arabs in key positions to win seats — but not anymore.
Issawi Frej, a long-time Palestinian member of Meretz who has served in the
Knesset on the party’s slate, was eased out in the new merger in a snub to the
Palestinians who have sought to participate in Israel’s political establishment.
Frej has been involved in Peace Now and the Geneva Accords movement. He told
Haaretz: “In April, the Arabs saved Meretz partly because of appropriate
representation, with two spots in the top five. Now I find myself like an
activist whose bulldozer was stolen and replaced with a shovel.”
But the move could simply be a short-term strategy to help the left take office,
as the Palestinians in Israel continue to vote far below their potential. If
Palestinians refuse to vote, citing “normalization” concerns, they can't have
representation in Israel’s government. But, without a voice in government, they
will be hopelessly marginalized. And, if the Palestinian population, which makes
up 20 percent of Israel’s near-9 million citizens, does not have a real voice in
determining government policy, then the Palestinians living under Israel’s
military occupation will be even worse off than they are today.
What Frej must do now is step back and encourage his supporters to back the
Palestinian parties led by Ahmad Tibi and Ayman Odeh. Many Palestinians do not
vote for Arab parties, but instead back Zionist list candidates like those
representing Labor and Meretz, believing that working from the inside can
achieve change, while working from the outside will only reinforce the
stalemate.
The stronger the voice Palestinians can have in the Knesset, the more likely it
is that they will be able to weaken the right. Even though Labor and Meretz have
stepped back from an alliance with the Palestinian community, the latter still
has an obligation to do what is right and advocate for peace based on equality
and the implementation of a two-state solution to create a Palestinian state.
They cannot afford to allow emotion and anger to drive their actions, and they
must look past the short-term. It is not an easy thing to do — to step back and
take the snub — but that is exactly what Palestinian voters must do in order to
survive. The left’s strategy is simple and based on a desire to take votes away
from conservative centrists who may dislike non-Jews and currently vote for the
right. This faction of voters could be drawn to the left by the Labor-Meretz
deal. Those who say that is a surrender to racism don’t understand the power
dynamics of politics in the West and in a country like Israel.
You can stand up for principles all you want, but, if you can’t get control of
power, then principles mean nothing.
• Ray Hanania is an award-winning former Chicago City Hall political reporter
and columnist. He can be reached on his personal website at www.Hanania.com.
Twitter: @RayHanania
World leaders aim for cohesion at landmark Davos summit
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/January 15/2020
The World Economic Forum (WEF) is making final preparations for its landmark
50th anniversary summit at Davos, Switzerland, next week. Yet, while the event
is a landmark for international cooperation after a half-century of such
sessions, storm clouds are on the horizon, as reflected in this year’s theme of
“Stakeholders for a Cohesive and Sustainable World.”
US President Donald Trump, who will be present at the Swiss ski resort,
personifies these tensions. It is his “America First” vision that has been a key
driver in the breakdown of international agreements and cooperation in the last
few years, as it has undermined a range of global agreements, including the
Paris climate change treaty.
To be sure, Trump has significant support — in the US and internationally — for
his agenda, and he stands a significant chance of winning four more years in
office in November. Yet he will not be very popular among the elites and
activists in and around Davos, who tend to see him more as a menace than an
international messiah.
Others have been more warmly received in Davos, including Xi Jinping, who in
2017 became the first Chinese president to give a speech, in which he made an
impassioned defense of globalization in the face of Trump’s protectionist
rhetoric.
The key theme of promoting a more cohesive, sustainable world at this year’s
Davos underlines that, a generation on from the promise of the late 1980s and
early 1990s, which saw the collapse of Soviet communism, many expectations about
how the post-Cold War world might look have been dashed, not least around
international cooperation. The WEF itself has ridden this wave of optimism and
pessimism through its provision in the last several decades of a global platform
for dialogue.
Its successes in bolstering international cooperation included the Davos
Declaration, signed in 1988 by Greece and Turkey, which saw the two turn back
from the brink of war. The following year, North and South Korea held their
first ministerial-level meetings at the WEF, while East German Prime Minister
Hans Modrow and German Chancellor Helmut Kohl met there to discuss German
reunification in 1990.
Three decades on, the idealistic vision of the future held by some of a
universal order of liberal, capitalist, democratic states living in peace and
contentment has been undermined. As multiple reports highlight, there is
currently a potentially toxic cocktail of trade disputes, environmental risks,
online threats and geopolitical dangers threatening the fundamental fabric of
the global political economy.
To be sure, as a generation ago, the US remains the world’s most powerful
country, certainly in a military sense. And it can still project and deploy
overwhelming force relative to any probable enemy, as Iran, for instance, is
well aware as it considers its options after this month’s assassination of
Qassem Soleimani.
Yet there are now multiple challenges confronting the US-led order, helping to
drive the international fractures that the WEF will discuss. For instance,
following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, US relations with Russia are now more
strained than at any time since the Cold War, despite Trump’s professed desire
to try and reduce the tensions. And the Israeli-Palestinian peace process has
collapsed again, while Washington and Pyongyang remain locked into stalled
nuclear diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula.
Moreover, almost two decades after 9/11, Washington is still significantly
engaged in Afghanistan and the Middle East. Indeed, the US could become
significantly more entrenched in the latter region if tensions with Iran
continue to grow in 2020.
On the positive side of the ledger, however, today’s world continues to contain
multiple positive opportunities for international cooperation. Take the example
of the landmark global climate change deal agreed in Paris in 2015, which
represented a welcome fillip to efforts to tackle global warming.
Many expectations about how the post-Cold War world might look have been dashed,
not least around international cooperation.
Compared to three decades ago, the rise of China is one of the biggest game
changers in global affairs. And, in the week in which Washington and Beijing are
expected to sign a first stage trade deal, it is increasingly likely that the
future of the international order may well depend on the shape of the China-US
bilateral relationship. This could be shaping what is sometimes called a
multi-bilateral world, or a network of loosely coordinated bilateral and
regional trade deals.
One of the key indicators of whether such a future can be realized will come if
the two sides can eventually reach a wider, more ambitious and sustainable phase
two deal to settle their economic tensions. If so, this could help catalyze a
new multi-bilateral trading order, rather than the potential alternative of the
world hurtling toward zero-sum trade relations and ultimately into a full-blown
economic war.
While a multi-bilateral trade order would be more complicated and less
satisfactory than the status quo, it would be better than a zero-sum world that
could otherwise be our collective fate.
*Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics
Soleimani, The Jihadis, And The Christians
Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/January 15/2020
"Iraqi Christian" Militia Leader at PMU Assault on U.S. Embassy, Baghdad
The late IRGC Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani has had quite the media
afterlife. After his killing, Swedish public television described him as "a top
diplomat" and a "super-celebrity."[1] While some American media outlets referred
to him as "flamboyant," or a "warrior-philosopher" and gushed at his massive
funeral, Middle Easterners outside the orbit of Iran tended to have much more
caustic views of the man.
Many fine pieces have already been written about this person and about U.S.
policy and Iranian aspirations in the region. But more interesting to me are two
assertions made in various eulogies about Soleimani in various Western
publications, about the fight against ISIS and about the treatment of
Christians. These are assertions which reveal a fundamental misunderstanding,
not just about how Iran works, but how all regimes in the Middle East work.
Some of the coverage of Soleimani's liquidation was driven by how much the
writer despised President Trump and the U.S. administration's foreign policy. So
it is not surprising that the idea that "Soleimani played a key role in the
defeat of ISIS" appeared regularly.[2] This was a talking point trumpeted by
pro-Iran and Assad propagandists but that also seeped into the mainstream
press.[3] Of course, Soleimani and Iran fought ISIS in Iraq after 2014.
Soleimani and Iran, and their proxies, also played a key role in the growth and
revival of the "Islamic State" in the region.
The extreme sectarian role played by Iranian-controlled Iraqi politicians such
as former prime minister (2006-2014) Nouri Sl-Maliki and the late Abdul Mahdi
Al-Muhandis was a key ingredient in the rise of ISIS. It is Maliki who
persecuted Iraqi Sunni politicians and tried to dismantle anti-Islamic State
Sunni tribal militias built up by the Americans. The former prime minister was
both an extreme sectarian and so corrupt and incompetent that ISIS took the city
of Mosul with at most 1,500 fighters against 30,000 soldiers and police in that
city. Iran, who installed Maliki with the acquiescence of confused American
officials, also bears blame for this debacle.
Al-Muhandis, killed in the drone strike that took out Soleimani, oversaw
sectarian militias that sometimes fought ISIS and other times served as death
squads, killing activists, torturing prisoners, and engaging in industrial level
corruption. While these Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) did indeed play a role
in the war against ISIS, their role was also hyped by pro-Iranian Iraqi media
for political reasons. The most effective Iraqi units fighting against ISIS were
not those units controlled by Iran but often those professionals that were
trained by the Americans.
But Iranian complicity in the growth of their supposedly Salafi-jihadi arch
enemies doesn't end there. It was Bashar Al-Assad's regime that ran a ratline
for years from Damascus International Airport to the Iraqi border, facilitating
the move of thousands of jihadis into Iraq to kill both Americans and Iraqi
security forces. In Lebanon, in 2017, it was Hizbullah – the most potent of
Iran's proxies – that secured a deal moving hundreds of ISIS fighters to the
Syrian-Iraqi border where they could take up arms against U.S.-backed SDF
fighters or cross back in Iraq.[4] Iran supports Sunni Islamist Hamas and Sunni
jihadi Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). And, of course, it was Iran that
provided safe haven, implemented by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
and featuring Soleimani himself, for Al-Qaeda's senior leadership and much of
his family.[5]
This should not surprise us. While Iran is America's major adversary in the
region, this duplicity in using the most toxic forces available against your
adversaries or keeping them in reserve to unleash is not limited to that regime.
Brynjar Lia's magisterial biography of jihadi mastermind Abu Mus'ab Al-Suri
notes in passing that after Abu Mus'ab fled Syria in the 1980s, he may have
gotten some help from Jordan, Egypt and Iraq – all of them states openly against
jihadism – because, of course, anti-Assad regime fighters may be useful one day
against the regime in Damascus. The Assad regime helped PKK Kurdish rebels
against Turkey at the same time that it repressed its own Syrian Kurdish
population. Hypocrisy has always been a useful tool of statecraft. So there is
no contradiction between Soleimani "the fighter against ISIS," and "Soleimani,
nurturer of ISIS/Salafi-jihadism."
The other simplistic, misleading line in the Soleimani eulogies is that he/Iran
"saved Middle East Christians."[6] There seems to be a lot of saving going on.
If you follow the discourse of most regimes in the Middle East evidently, they
are all "saving Christians" even as those populations diminish. You can hear
variations of it in Cairo and Damascus and Beirut and Tehran.[7] The reality is
that just as ISIS used the persecution of Christians to burnish their
Salafi-jihadi credentials, so do Middle East regimes use "their" Christians to
burnish an image of tolerance which is less than meets the eye if you look
closely.[8] This is the use of Christians as props, as window dressing or
puppets, to win sympathy in the West and to disguise a naked thirst for power.
In Iraq and Syria, Christians lose property to militias and mafias motivated by
greed. In Mosul, absent Christians find that their property is seized and sold
without their permission or knowledge by militia-connected gangsters. But
lip-service about Christians is commonplace in the region.
Among Soleimani's many "accomplishments" was planting two predatory, mostly
Shi'a militias (30th and 50th PMU "brigades") in the heart of Iraq's tiny but
majority Christian Nineveh Plains region where they obstruct the region's
fragile revival to this day.[9] One of these, the "Babylon Brigade," is often
described as a "Christian" militia but is anything but that. Some Iraqi
Christians even whisper that this unit's leader Rayan Al-Kildani, now facing
U.S. sanctions, is no longer a Christian, that he has secretly converted to
Shi'a Islam. Whatever is in his heart, he is a faithful servant of Iran and was
present on December 31, 2019 when Iranian-controlled militias attacked the U.S.
Embassy in Baghdad.[10]
While Kildani is an extreme example, his is a type that exists throughout
anywhere in the region where there are still local Christian communities on the
ground. He is a "Christian" leader whose real constituency is not those
communities but the state or the organization (Hizbullah in Lebanon, the PMU in
Iraq, the Assad regime or the YPG in Syria) calling the shots on the ground.
Even in Lebanon, the country which still has the highest percentage of
Christians, the autonomy and freedom of action of those Christians is being
eroded as the "Rayan Al-Kildani paradigm" gains ground.[11] Lebanon features the
strange phenomenon of ugly sectarian Christian discourse while at the same time
deeply beholden to Hizbullah.[12] One of the great hopes of Lebanon's lively
popular protest movement is that it is both loosely against extreme sectarianism
by any group and to some extent anti-Hizbullah.
So a good rule of thumb in thinking of the legacy of the late Qassem Soleimani
is to treat any mention of his or the regime he represented "fighting ISIS" or
"saving Christians" with some care. And may the same skepticism apply to claims
made by other regimes trumpeting their noble intentions.
*Alberto M. Fernandez is a retired U.S. Ambassador and President of Middle East
Broadcast Networks (MBN).
[1] Samnytt.se/svt-pudlar-efter-att-ha-presenterat-terroristgeneral-som-toppdiplomat/,
January 6, 2020.
[2] Cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/baghdad-airport-strike-live-intl-hnk/h_02d5a17ad0eebe80128bda0388b8be36,
January 4, 2020.
3] Commondreams.org/views/2020/01/11/all-times-us-allied-soleimani-against-common-enemies-giving-him-air-support-tikrit,
January 11, 2020.
[4] Apnews.com/1bfc3d8bb609414eba2496dadb7a8401, August 30, 2017.
[5] Theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/11/al-qaeda-iran-cia/545576/,
November 11, 2017.
[6] Facebook.com/watch/?v=630982287653814, January 5, 2020.
[7] Wabcradio.com/episode/syrian-christians-praise-soleimani-state-dept-confused-larry-johnson-sic-semper-tyrannis/,
January 11, 2020.
[8] Providencemag.com/2019/09/authoritarians-wont-save-the-middle-easts-religious-minorities/,
September 20, 2019.
[9] Cruxnow.com/church-in-the-middle-east/2019/07/chaldean-church-says-so-called-christian-militias-are-not-christian/,
July 26, 2019.
[10] MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 8451, Reactions To Attack On U.S. Embassy – PMU
Leader: 'The Siege Of The U.S. Embassy In Tehran Back In 1979 Extends To Today's
Siege Of The Embassy In Baghdad,' December 31, 2019.
[11] Alaraby.co.uk/english/Comment/2019/11/12/Why-Bassil-is-the-most-reviled-politician-in-Lebanon,
12 November, 2019
[12] Aawsat.com/english/home/article/1839416/eyad-abu-shakra/hezbollah-real-government-lebanon,
August 1, 2019.
Human Rights Watch World Report 2020/Lebanon//The rights
situation in Lebanon deteriorated in 2019
Human Rights Watch website/January 15/2020
Freedom of Assembly and Freedom of Expression
Ill-Treatment and Torture
Military Courts
Women’s Rights
Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity
Migrant Workers
Refugees
Education
Environment and Health
Legacy of Past Conflicts and Wars
Key International Actors
The rights situation in Lebanon deteriorated in 2019, culminating in widespread
anti-government protests that began on October 17. Security forces at times used
excessive and unnecessary force against protesters and on several occasions
failed to stop attacks on demonstrators.
Lebanese authorities have prosecuted individuals for peaceful speech, and
security agencies interrogating these individuals have in some cases subjected
them to abuse and detained them pretrial. Accountability for torture remains
elusive, despite the passage of an anti-torture law.
Women still face discrimination under 15 separate religion-based personal status
laws and both child marriage and marital rape remain legal. Unlike men, women
cannot pass their citizenship to their children and foreign spouses.
Although Lebanon passed a law banning the open burning of waste, the practice is
still widespread, endangering the health of residents.
There are approximately 1.5 million Syrian refugees in Lebanon; 73 percent lack
legal status. Authorities forcibly deported over 2,500 refugees.
Freedom of Assembly and Freedom of Expression
Anti-government protests began on October 17 prompted by the announcement of new
taxes. The protests quickly devolved into anger against the entire political
establishment, whom protesters blame for corruption and the country’s dire
economic situation. Prime Minister Said Hariri resigned on October 29 in
response to the mass protests.
On October 18, security forces fired tear gas and rubber bullets at thousands of
largely peaceful protesters in downtown Beirut. Security forces on several
occasions failed to stop attacks on peaceful demonstrators and occasionally used
excessive force to disperse protesters and clear roadblocks by beating
protesters with batons and rifle butts.
In 2019, authorities continued to detain and charge individuals for speech
critical of government officials, especially in relation to corruption
allegations, and religious institutions. Lawyers also used defamation laws to
file complaints against individuals and publications expressing concern about
the country’s economic situation.
Security agencies, including the Internal Security Forces’ cybercrimes bureau,
have summoned activists for interrogation over peaceful speech, in some cases
subjecting them to abuse, violating their privacy, detaining them pretrial, and
compelling them to sign commitments to cease their criticisms.
Defaming or criticizing the Lebanese president or army is a criminal offense
carrying penalties of up to two and three years in prison, respectively. The
Lebanese penal code criminalizes libel and defamation, authorizing imprisonment
of up to three months, and up to one year in the case of public officials.
Ill-Treatment and Torture
Despite parliament passing an anti-torture law in 2017, torture by security
forces persists, judicial authorities continue to ignore the law’s provisions,
and accountability for torture remains elusive.
Judicial authorities failed to investigate torture allegations by Hassan al-Dika,
arrested on drug-related charges, against members of the Internal Security
Forces (ISF) prior to his death in custody on May 11.
Ziad Itani, a prominent actor falsely accused of spying for Israel, alleged that
State Security officers tortured him in 2017. Despite his filing a lawsuit
against his alleged torturers in November 2018, the judiciary has taken no
substantive action on his case.
On March 7, Lebanon’s Council of Ministers appointed the five members of the
national preventative mechanism to monitor and investigate the use of torture,
but it has still not allocated funding for the mechanism.
Military Courts
Lebanon continues to try civilians, including children, in military courts, in
violation of their due process rights and international law.
On March 7, military courts sentenced two journalists to three months’
imprisonment in absentia for allegedly insulting a security agency on Facebook.
On appeal in April, the military court declared a lack of jurisdiction and
referred the case back to the military prosecutor.
Women’s Rights
Women, who have played a leading role in the protests that began on October 17,
continue to face discrimination under 15 distinct religion-based personal status
laws. Discrimination includes inequality in access to divorce, child custody,
and inheritance and property rights. Unlike men, Lebanese women also cannot pass
on their nationality to foreign husbands and children.
Lebanon has no minimum age for marriage, and some religious courts allow girls
younger than 15 to marry. Parliament failed to take up draft bills that would
set the age of marriage at 18.
In 2017, Lebanon’s parliament repealed article 522, which had allowed rapists to
escape prosecution by marrying the victim, but left a loophole with regard to
offences relating to sex with children aged 15-17 and sex with virgin girls with
promises of marriage.
A 2014 Law on the Protection of Women and Family from Domestic Violence
established important protection measures and introduced policing and court
reforms but failed to criminalize all forms of domestic violence, including
marital rape.
Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity
Article 534 of the penal code punishes “any sexual intercourse contrary to the
order of nature” with up to one year in prison. In March, the top military
prosecutor acquitted four military personnel accused of sodomy and ruled that
homosexuality is not a crime. This follows a district court of appeals’ similar
groundbreaking ruling in July 2018, and four judgments from lower courts
declining to convict gay and transgender people under article 534 since 2007.
General Security banned entry to at least six individuals after they
participated in a gender and sexuality conference in September 2018, which it
attempted to shut down.
Transgender women in Lebanon face systemic violence and discrimination in
accessing basic services, including employment, health care, and housing.
Migrant Workers
An estimated 250,000 migrant domestic workers, primarily from Sri Lanka,
Ethiopia, the Philippines, Nepal, and Bangladesh, are excluded from labor law
protections.
The kafala (sponsorship) system subjects them to restrictive immigration rules
under which they cannot leave or change employers without permission of their
employer, placing them at risk of exploitation and abuse.
Civil society organizations documented frequent complaints of non-payment or
delayed payment of wages, forced confinement, refusal to provide time off, and
verbal and physical abuse. Migrant domestic workers seeking accountability for
abuse face legal obstacles and inadequate investigations.
On May 5, migrant domestic workers organized a protest in Beirut demanding
better working conditions and the abolishment of the kafala system.
A former minister of labor created a committee to reform Lebanon’s labor law and
“break” the kafala system, but no reforms have been announced yet.
Refugees
Nearly 1 million Syrian refugees are registered with the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Lebanon. The government estimates the true
number of Syrians in the country to be 1.5 million.
Lebanon’s residency policy makes it difficult for Syrians to maintain legal
status, heightening risks of exploitation and abuse and restricting refugees’
access to work, education, and healthcare. Seventy-three percent of Syrians in
Lebanon now lack legal residency and risk detention for unlawful presence in the
country.
The Higher Defense Council took several decisions that increased pressure on
Syrian refugees in Lebanon, including the deportation of Syrians who enter
Lebanon illegally, the demolition of refugee shelters, and a crackdown on
Syrians working without authorization. On August 26, General Security said it
deported 2,731 Syrians since May 21, placing them at risk of arbitrary detention
and torture. These coercive measures come amid xenophobic rhetoric from leading
politicians calling for the return of Syrian refugees.
General Security estimates that over 170,000 Syrians returned to their country
from Lebanon between December 2017 and March 2019. Syrians said they are
returning because of harsh policies and deteriorating conditions in Lebanon, not
because they think Syria is safe.
According to the Lebanese Palestinian Dialogue Committee, there are
approximately 174,000 Palestinian refugees living in Lebanon, where they
continue to face restrictions, including on their right to work and own
property. In addition, approximately 30,000 Palestinians from Syria have sought
refuge in Lebanon.
Education
More than 300,000 school-age Syrian children were out of school during the
2017-2018 school year, largely due to parents’ inability to pay for transport,
child labor, school directors imposing arbitrary enrollment requirements, and
lack of language support. As of mid-October 2019, Syrian students had not begun
afternoon shifts at public schools. The Education Ministry blamed a shortfall in
donor funding.
Children with disabilities are often denied admission to schools and for those
who manage to enroll, most schools do not take reasonable steps to provide them
with a quality education.
Although Lebanon has banned corporal punishment in schools, the ban is often
disregarded, largely due to a lack of accountability for abusers.
Environment and Health
Despite the passage of a solid waste management law in 2018 banning the open
burning of waste, municipalities still engage in the practice, posing health
risks to residents, especially children and older persons. Open burning is more
common in poor areas of the country.
On August 27, the cabinet endorsed the Environment Ministry’s roadmap to create
25 sanitary landfills and three waste incinerators. However, the cabinet did not
agree on how to tackle Beirut’s looming trash crisis as both major landfills
reach capacity.
Legacy of Past Conflicts and Wars
An estimated 17,000 Lebanese were kidnapped or “disappeared” during the
1975-1990 civil war. On November 12, 2018, parliament passed a landmark law
creating an independent national commission to investigate the fate of the
disappeared.
On August 29, the Justice Ministry nominated 10 individuals to serve on the
committee. Their nominations must be approved by Cabinet.
Key International Actors
Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia maintain a strong influence on Lebanese politics
through local allies.
Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel increased following the crash of two
Israeli drones in Beirut’s southern suburbs on August 25.
The international community has given Lebanon extensive, albeit insufficient,
support to help it cope with the Syrian refugee crisis and to bolster security
amid spillover violence.
Lebanese armed forces and police receive assistance from a range of
international donors, including the United States, European Union, United
Kingdom, France, and Saudi Arabia.