LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 05.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Prophet, Anna, Blesses The Child Jesus In The Temple
Luke 02/36-40/There was also a prophet, Anna, the daughter of Penuel, of the tribe of Asher. She was very old; she had lived with her husband seven years after her marriage, and then was a widow until she was eighty-four. She never left the temple but worshiped night and day, fasting and praying. Coming up to them at that very moment, she gave thanks to God and spoke about the child to all who were looking forward to the redemption of Jerusalem. When Joseph and Mary had done everything required by the Law of the Lord, they returned to Galilee to their own town of Nazareth. And the child grew and became strong; he was filled with wisdom, and the grace of God was on him.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 04-05/2020
Soleimani Faced The righteous Justice/Elias Bejjani/January 03/2020
No For Arresting & Imprisoning Dr. Issam Khalefe/Elias Bejjani/January 03/2020
We’re paying the price of our stupidity/Roger Bejjani/Face Book/January 04/2020
Frangieh offers condolences at Iranian Embassy
Lebanon receives first batch of gasoline to Zahrani Oil Installations
Akkar Banks Closed after Tension
Lebanon Receives First Batch of State-Imported Gasoline
Ghosn Lawyer Feels Betrayal, Sympathy over Tycoon Japan Escape
Ghosn lawyer says former Nissan boss 'betrayed' Him
Ghosn lawyer outraged by Japan’s justice system as by escape
Fugitive Lebanese tycoon seeks haven in country gripped by turmoil/Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly/January 05/2020
Government formation in Lebanon still facing obstacles/Najia Houssari/Arab News/January 05/2020
Aoun promises Cabinet in a week as Mideast tensions escalate/Georgi Azar/Annahar/January 04/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 04-05/2020
White House gives lawmakers formal notice of Iraq strike: Officials
Trump says US will hit 52 Iranian sites if Iran attacks US targets
Trump says US ‘ready and prepared’ for any response after Soleimani’s death
US Senator Ted Cruz plans to introduce resolution praising Soleimani operation
Top US general: Intelligence pointed to Soleimani planning attacks against US
EU urges ‘de-escalation’ after US killing of Iran’s Qassem Soleimani
Britain’s navy to accompany UK-flagged ships through Strait of Hormuz
German foreign minister will seek direct talks with Iran: Reports
For Trump, a Risky Decision Other Presidents Had Avoided
Fury, Tears as Thousands Mourn Iran Commander Killed by US
New Air Strike on Pro-Iran Convoy in Iraq ahead of Soleimani Funeral
Syria Death Toll Tops 380,000 in almost Nine-Year War
NATO Suspends Training Missions in Iraq after Soleimani Killing
French police shoot man dead near Paris after fatal stabbing
French knife attacker was radicalized, anti-terrorism prosecutors say
China tells Iran foreign minister that US should stop ‘abusing’ use of force
Britain warns nationals against travel to Iraq and Iran
Russia's Lavrov, Iran's Zarif discuss Soleimani killing: statement
Germany reviews threat level after Iran general’s killing
Children among 14 dead in Burkina roadside bombing
China replaces its top official in protest-riven Hong Kong
Tens of thousands march in southern India to protest citizenship law

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 04-05/2020
Qods Force commander Soleimani’s carelessness put him in the U.S. military’s crosshairs/Bill Roggio/FDD/January 04/2020
Soleimani is dead, but the enemy still stands/Alireza Nader/FDD/January 04/2020
Germany's Middle Eastern Criminal Clans/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/January 04/2020
The Ottomans are back - what does that mean for Israel?/Seth Franztzman/Jerusalem Post/January 04/2020
Analysis/The Four Critical Questions After the Assassination of Iran’s Soleimani/Anshel Pfeffer/Haaretz/January 04/2020
The End of an Era, the Challenges of Iran after Suleimani/Charles Elias Chartoni/January 04/2020
The Iranian Imperial Adventurism and the Middle Eastern Tinderbox/Charles Elias Chartouni/January 04/2020
Baghdad now has a chance to push back against Iranian influence/Michael Pregent/Al Arabiya English/January 04/ 2020
After Soleimani: Three scenarios that could happen next/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 04/2020
Iran Retains Its Ability to Launch Terror Attacks Despite Assassination/Matthew Levitt/The National/January 04/2020
Iran’s Supreme Leader Responds to the Soleimani Assassination/Mehdi Khalaji/The Washington Institute//January 05/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 04-05/2020
Soleimani Faced The righteous Justice
Elias Bejjani/January 03/2020
Killing of Kassem Soleimani is actually the killing and exposure of the false, paper-based Mullah's Military aura and prestige. Meanwhile the joy of the Arab people for Soleimani's assassination demonstrates their deeply rooted hatred and contempt for the hostile terrorist and expansionist Mullah's stone age oppressive regime.

No For Arresting & Imprisoning Dr. Issam Khalefe
Elias Bejjani/January 02/2020
The biased judiciary arrest verdict against Dr. Issam Khalefe is an insult and contempt for each and every sovereign, independent, honourable, and free Lebanese citizen. In summary the Lebanese regime officials from top to bottom are corrupt, The country is occupied, The politicians are mere puppets, and the Judiciary is biased and politicized

We’re paying the price of our stupidity.
Roger Bejjani/Face Book/January 04/2020
If we had to rewrite history a la Tarantino, what should have been done:
1. Palestinians and Arabs should have accepted UN resolution 181 that has created for the first time in history the state of Palestine alongside the state of Israel. Ok they did not and declared war on Israel.
2. Lebanon should not have joined the other Arab Armies in attacking Israel in 1948. We did. We signed an armistice agreement.
3. Lebanon should not have violated the 1948 armistice agreement by allowing the Palestinians using South Lebanon as a base to attack Israel (Cairo accords). We did.
4. Lebanon should have implemented the 17 May 1983 accords that stipulated the peaceful withdrawal of all Israeli Troops from Lebanon. We did not.
5. Lebanon should have not allowed Hezbollah to monopolise a resistance we did not need (since we had the 17 May accords). We did.
6. Lebanon should have prioritized its relations with the west and Arab Gulf countries. We did not.
7. Lebanon should have declared itself as totally neutral vis a vis all regional conflicts. We did not.
We’re paying the price of our stupidity.
To my Lebanese Shi’a friends. And I have plenty of them including many of the top athletes in Inter Lebanon, a Club I have founded and do preside.
****
To my Lebanese Shi’a friends. And I have plenty of them including many of the top athletes in Inter Lebanon, a Club I have founded and do preside.
1. I am an Atheist.
2. I never judge people based on their religion or color or origin.
3. I judge them based on their actions and opinions.
4. My very negative and aggressive opinion towards Hezbollah is unrelated to religion. It is the same that I have towards Daesh who are Sunni or the Aounist idiots who are Christians.
5. Iraqi Shi’a in their majority (and they are 18 times more numerous than Lebanese Shi’a) share my opinion towards Hezbollah and same applies to the greatest majority of Iranians who hate Hezbollah. So Hezbollah followers in Lebanon or the ones obfuscated by my verbal attacks against the terror group represent a tiny majority of the Shi’a worldwide.
The greatest majority of Shi’a worldwide agree with me.
6. I do not associate Hezbollah to Shi’a.
and vice versa. I evaluate Hezbollah on its own merit the same way i evaluate any other hate and terror groups. The religion they carry is not of my concern.

Frangieh offers condolences at Iranian Embassy
NNA/January 04/2020
Marada Movement leader, Sleiman Frangieh, visited on Saturday the Iranian Embassy, where he offered his heartfelt condolences for the loss of General Qassem Soleimani.

Lebanon receives first batch of gasoline to Zahrani Oil Installations
NNA/January 04/2020
Lebanon recieved Saturday the first batch of gasoline to the Zahrani Oil Installations, after the ZR Energy company won a state tender to import 150,000 tons of gasoline. Caretaker Minister of Energy Nada Boustani, who recieved the gasoline shipment, said that "there will be no fuel crisis from this day on," adding that fuel distributers came to receive the shipment to then distribute to gas stations. She added that the first ship that arrived today holds around 24,000 tons of fuel and that the "Lebanese Army will be the first receiving from the shipment."

Akkar Banks Closed after Tension
Naharnet/January 04/2020
Banks in Akkar’s Halba and al-Abdeh areas were closed on Saturday after a day of tension in one of the banks that saw scuffles and tear gas bombs hurled inside. All the banks closed their doors “until further notice” based on a decision of the Association of Banks in Lebanon.
ABL issued a notice on Friday protesting what happened in BLOM bank in Halba when security forces scuffled with protesters “insisting that the bank pays the dues of one of the depositors.”The bank’s facades were shattered in the scuffle and so were the furniture inside. Videos circulated on social media have shown tear gas grenade hurled inside the bank to disperse the protesters. Amid a spiraling financial crisis, Lebanese banks have imposed informal withdrawal limits of a maximum $300 a week and totally halted transfers abroad. Anti-government protesters, who largely blame the country's dire economy on corrupt politicians, say the limits are illegal and have turned their ire against bank officials and the financial sector.

Lebanon Receives First Batch of State-Imported Gasoline
Naharnet/January 04/2020
Caretaker Minister of Energy Nada al-Bustani announced on Saturday that Lebanon received its first shipment of gasoline on behalf of the state to avoid any fuel shortage in the future. “Lebanon will no longer be gripped by gasoline crisis now that Lebanon received its first batch of state-imported gasoline,” said Bustani. “The first fuel vessel docked today has a capacity of 24 thousand tons of fuel and the rest of the shipments will arrive simultaneously,” she added. In December, Bustani awarded Lebanese ZR Energy regional energy trader the contract for importing gasoline on behalf of the state to avoid a fuel crisis.

Ghosn Lawyer Feels Betrayal, Sympathy over Tycoon Japan Escape
Associated Press/Naharnet/January 04/2020
A lawyer for former Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn said Saturday he felt betrayed by his client's escape from Japan but still understood his act, claiming it resulted from Japan's inhumane justice system.
The international tycoon, who faces multiple charges of financial misconduct that he denies, jumped bail and fled to Lebanon in late December to avoid a Japanese trial. "First, I was filled with a sense of strong anger. I felt betrayed," Ghosn's lawyer Takashi Takano wrote in his blog, stating that he had not been informed about the plan in advance. "But anger was turning to something else as I recalled how he was treated by the country's justice system," Takano said. Ghosn is thought to have taken a private jet from Kansai Airport in western Japan, heading for Istanbul. It is believed he headed from there to Beirut. "I can easily imagine that if people with wealth, human networks and ability to take action have the same experience (as Ghosn), they would do the same thing or at least consider doing so," Takano said. Ghosn's high-profile arrest in November 2018 and his long detention under severe conditions were widely considered draconian compared with the West. Suspects in Japan can be detained for weeks or even months before trial, with limited access to their lawyers, and around 99 percent of trials in the country result in a conviction. Critics including rights groups such as Amnesty International have derided Japan's system as "hostage justice", designed to break morale and force confessions from suspects. When safely in Lebanon, Ghosn pressed this point again, saying he "would no longer be held hostage by a rigged Japanese justice system". Another lawyer for Ghosn, Junichiro Hironaka, on Saturday also said that harsh bail conditions -- notably the restrictions on contact with his wife Carole -- appeared to have motivated the tycoon's escape. "He did not know when he can meet his wife ... and there was no prospect for a change in his bail conditions," Hironaka told reporters. "I guess these things were really tough for him," the lawyer said. A Tokyo court banned Ghosn from contacting his wife despite several petitions from his legal team describing the measure as "cruel and a punishment". He was later permitted to speak to her via videoconference only. While Japanese prosecutors have launched an investigation, the circumstances of Ghosn's Hollywood-like flight from Japan are still unclear.

Ghosn lawyer says former Nissan boss 'betrayed' Him
Al Jazeera/January 04/2020
Lawyer for ex-Nissan chief says he was angry over his client's escape but now understands his decision to flee Japan.
A lawyer for former Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn has said he felt betrayed by his client's escape from Japan but still understood his act, claiming it resulted from Japan's inhumane justice system. The international tycoon, who faces multiple charges of financial misconduct that he denies, jumped bail and fled to Lebanon in late December to avoid a Japanese trial. "First, I was filled with a sense of strong anger. I felt betrayed," Ghosn's lawyer Takashi Takano wrote in his blog, stating that he had not been informed about the plan in advance. "But anger was turning to something else as I recalled how he was treated by the country's justice system," Takano said. Ghosn is thought to have taken a private jet from Kansai Airport in western Japan, heading for Istanbul. It is believed he headed from there to Beirut. "I can easily imagine that if people with wealth, human networks and ability to take action have the same experience (as Ghosn), they would do the same thing or at least consider doing so," Takano said. Ghosn's high-profile arrest in November 2018 and his long detention under severe conditions were widely considered draconian compared with the West. Suspects in Japan can be detained for weeks or even months before trial, with limited access to their lawyers, and around 99 percent of trials in the country result in a conviction.
Critics including rights groups such as Amnesty International have derided Japan's system as "hostage justice", designed to break morale and force confessions from suspects. When safely in Lebanon, Ghosn pressed this point again, saying he "would no longer be held hostage by a rigged Japanese justice system".
Another lawyer for Ghosn, Junichiro Hironaka, on Saturday also said that harsh bail conditions - notably the restrictions on contact with his wife Carole - appeared to have motivated the tycoon's escape. "He did not know when he can meet his wife ... and there was no prospect for a change in his bail conditions," Hironaka told reporters.
"I guess these things were really tough for him," the lawyer said.
A Tokyo court banned Ghosn from contacting his wife despite several petitions from his legal team describing the measure as "cruel and a punishment". He was later permitted to speak to her via video conference only. While Japanese prosecutors have launched an investigation, the circumstances of Ghosn's Hollywood-like flight from Japan are still unclear. Citing three sources familiar with the matter, Reuters news agency reported on Saturday that Ghosn left his Tokyo residence after a private security firm hired by Nissan stopped monitoring him. Nissan had hired a private security company to watch Ghosn, who was on bail and awaiting trial, to check whether he met any people involved in the case, the sources said. But his lawyers warned the security company to stop watching him as it would be a violation of his human rights, and Ghosn was planning to file a complaint against the company, the sources said. The security company stopped its surveillance by December 29, the sources said. Ghosn faces four charges - which he denies - including hiding income and enriching himself through payments to dealerships in the Middle East.

Ghosn lawyer outraged by Japan’s justice system as by escape
Associated Press/January 04/2020
The major Japanese daily Sankei reported Saturday that his flight happened just as a private security company hired by Nissan Motor Co. to keep watch over Ghosn stopped work.
TOKYO: A lawyer for former Nissan Chairman Carlos Ghosn said Saturday that he felt outraged and betrayed by his client’s escape from Japan to Lebanon, but also expressed an understanding for his feelings of not being able to get a fair trial.
“My anger gradually began to turn to something else,” Takashi Takano wrote in his blog post.
Referring to Japan’s judicial system, he said, “I was betrayed, but the one who betrayed me is not Carlos Ghosn.”
Takano described how Ghosn had been barred from seeing his wife, in what Takano called a violation of human rights, and how Ghosn worried whether he would get a fair trial because of prosecutors’ leaks to the media and the prospect that the legal process may take years.
Ghosn, who was awaiting trial in Japan on financial misconduct charges, was last seen on surveillance video leaving his Tokyo home alone on Dec. 29, presumably to board his getaway plane.
Although the security cameras at his home were on 24 hours a day, the footage was only required to be submitted to the court once a month, on the 15th, according to lawyers’ documents detailing Ghosn’s bail conditions.
Takano, the main lawyer on Ghosn’s team in charge of his bail, acknowledged that most suspects would not be able to pull off an escape like Ghosn’s. But if they could, “they certainly would have tried,” he said.
Takano said he told Ghosn that in all the cases he has handled, there has been none in which the evidence was so scant, and that the chances for winning an innocent verdict were good, even if the trial was not fair.
Takano said the last time he saw Ghosn was Christmas Eve, when he was sitting in on the one-hour video call between Ghosn and his wife, Carole. Under the bail conditions, a lawyer’s presence is required for the calls, and the length of the call is also restricted.
Takano, who is fluent in English, quoted Ghosn as expressing his unfailing love for his family, ending the call with an “I love you.”
Ghosn is known for never having missed a Christmas with his family despite the arduous schedule of an auto executive.
Takano said he had never before felt such disgust over Japan’s legal system.
He apologized to Ghosn after the call, saying he felt shame, and promised to do his utmost in the court case.
Ghosn did not reply, Takano recalled in the blog post, which says the opinions are his own and not of the entire legal team.
The major Japanese daily Sankei reported Saturday that Ghosn’s flight took off just as a private security company hired by Nissan Motor Co. to keep watch over Ghosn stopped work.
Ghosn had been preparing a complaint against the security company, according to Sankei.
Another lawyer, Junichiro Hironaka, has complained that spying on his client was a violation of human rights, but he declined to say who might be behind it.
Nissan was closed for the holidays and not immediately available for comment. Sankei said Nissan was worried the surveillance conditions set by the Japanese court weren’t sufficient to keep tabs on Ghosn.
Hironaka told public broadcaster NHK TV late Friday that Ghosn had carried one of his French passports in a locked plastic case so that it could be read without unlocking, in case he was stopped by authorities. The lawyers had the key. Hironaka told NHK that the case could have been smashed with a hammer. Hironaka has denied any knowledge of the escape.
All foreigners in Japan are required to have their passports with them to show to police or other officials. It is unclear whether the French passport is the one Ghosn used to enter Lebanon.
Lebanese authorities have said Ghosn entered the country legally on a French passport, though he had been required to surrender all his passports to his lawyers under the terms of his bail. He also holds Brazilian and Lebanese citizenship.
Video footage at Ghosn’s home shows him walking out Dec. 29, according to NHK. An earlier report said he was carted out inside a musical instrument case.
Turkish airline MNG Jet said two of its planes were used illegally in Ghosn’s escape, first flying him from Osaka, Japan, to Istanbul, and then on to Beirut, where he arrived Monday and has not been seen since.
It said a company employee had admitted to falsifying flight records so that Ghosn’s name did not appear, adding that he acted “in his individual capacity” without MNG Jet’s knowledge. The company did not say to whom the jets were leased or identify the employee.
Interpol has issued a wanted notice for Ghosn. Japan has no extradition treaty with Lebanon and it appeared unlikely he would be handed over.
It’s not clear how Japan might respond.
The defiant and stunning escape of such a high-profile suspect has raised serious questions about the surveillance methods of the Japanese bail system.
Some may argue bail decisions should become more stringent, when bail is already restricted in Japan compared to the U.S. Trials and preparations before they start take far longer in Japan, where the conviction rate is higher than 99%.
Electronic tethers common in the U.S. are not used in Japan for bail. Ghosn had offered to wear one when he requested bail.
Government offices were shut down for the New Year’s holiday, and there have been no official statements.
Ghosn, who has said in a statement that he left to avoid Japan’s “injustice,” is set to speak to reporters in Beirut on Wednesday.
He has repeatedly said he is innocent, stressing that the charges were trumped up to block a fuller merger between Nissan Motor Co. and alliance partner Renault SA of France.
He has been charged in Japan with underreporting his future compensation and breach of trust in funneling Nissan money for personal use. Ghosn says the income was never decided, and the payments were for legitimate business.
No date was set for his trial, although his lawyers were aiming for April.

Fugitive Lebanese tycoon seeks haven in country gripped by turmoil
Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly/January 05/2020
Activists see Ghosn’s return to Beirut as yet another manifestation of impunity by the super-rich.
BEIRUT - Former Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn, who stunned the world by fleeing to Lebanon from Japan where he was held under tight house arrest pending trial on financial misconduct charges, could stand trial in Lebanon after an Interpol arrest warrant was issued for him.
The Interpol Red Notice, which calls on authorities to arrest a wanted person, was received by Lebanon’s internal security forces but had not yet been referred to the judiciary. Ghosn, a Lebanese national who also holds Brazilian and French citizenships, is unlikely to be extradited to Japan, said lawyer Mohammad Farid Mattar.“Usually when there is an international arrest warrant, the fugitive or the suspect is either extradited or arrested by the local authorities but Lebanon does not extradite its citizens to foreign states and there is no extradition treaty between Lebanon and Japan,” Mattar said.
It was not clear if Ghosn would be summoned for questioning over the warrant. Lebanese authorities said Ghosn entered the country legally using his French passport and Lebanese identification. He arrived in Beirut December 31 on a private jet via Istanbul.
“He could enter Lebanon because there was no international arrest warrant issued against him yet. However, he could have his passport confiscated now,” Mattar said. “Japan can always file a lawsuit against Ghosn in Lebanon, which means it would accept Lebanese jurisdiction. In that case, he could stand trial in Lebanese courts.”
The French-Lebanese vehicle mogul was charged on several counts of financial misconduct, which he has repeatedly denied. The circumstances of his escape from Japan remain unclear. He disclosed his arrival in Lebanon in a statement in which he said he was not escaping trial but “a rigged Japanese justice system where guilt is presumed, discrimination is rampant and basic human rights are denied.”
Ghosn was reportedly distressed by the conditions of his house arrest granted on a $14 million bail on two separate releases. He was not allowed to speak to his wife and family and his access to internet communication was largely curtailed. His lead Japanese lawyer Junichiro Hironaka said he was stunned that Ghosn had jumped bail and that lawyers held three passports belonging to him. Japanese public broadcaster NHK revealed that the Japanese authorities allowed Ghosn to carry a spare French passport in a locked case while on bail. In Lebanon people take special pride in auto-industry icon Ghosn, who is credited with leading a spectacular turnaround at Nissan beginning in the late 1990s, and who rescued the company from near bankruptcy. When he was arrested in November 2018, many dismissed charges brought against him as “a conspiracy” by Japanese firm Nissan. A public campaign was even launched in his defence under the slogan “We are all Carlos Ghosn.”The mood has since changed and, weeks into an unprecedented wave of protests against corruption and nepotism in Lebanon, activists see his return to Beirut as yet another manifestation of impunity by the super-rich.
*Samar Kadi is the Arab Weekly society and travel section editor.

Government formation in Lebanon still facing obstacles
Najia Houssari/Arab News/January 05/2020
Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani’s assassination potentially adds to list of internal issues
BEIRUT: The first week of the New Year ended without the formation of a new government to rescue Lebanon from an economic crisis. The process of forming a government still faces obstacles, including the refusal of three main parties to participate in it: The Future Movement, the Progressive Socialist Party and the Lebanese Forces Party. President Michel Aoun said a government could be formed next week. His media adviser Rafiq Shalala told Arab News: “There are changes in the names of Christian figures and some Muslim figures underway. There’s an attempt to rearrange the names after the portfolios were distributed to all parties. Work is underway to substitute some of the names with others.”There have been many leaks regarding names that have been chosen to participate in the government, which will consist of only 18 ministers. The issue of the participation of some of them has been settled, while others have faced objections from influential parties. Tarek Mitri, a former minister, told Arab News that it is unlikely that regional developments will have “a direct impact on the formation of the government.”He said: “The rules for forming a government are constantly changing, and the parties in power practice their old habits … What people expect from the authority hasn’t been taken into account.”He added: “The parties are choosing new acceptable faces, but since the beginning of the discussion about forming a government, we haven’t heard a useful sentence about … how to deal with the problems that Lebanon is facing, as if politics just means fighting for Cabinet seats and the remnants of power.”Activist Nemat Bader Al-Deen told Arab News that the “vacuum” regarding forming a government is “harmful, especially in light of the current economic crisis.”He said activists are “following leaks about the names of the personalities that may be part of the government. We can’t determine our position on them before we know who they are.”He added: “What we do know is that the parties in power still impose who they want. The criterion on which we’ll accept or reject the government is the integrity of these personalities. Is there suspicion of corruption around them? Do they take their instructions from the parties in power?”Bader Al-Deen said: “The most important thing we demand is knowledge of the government’s program and how it will face monetary policies. We want a ministerial statement biased toward the middle and poor classes, and policies that protect people and guarantee the independence of the judiciary and the restoration of looted money.”He added: “If the situation remains the same, it will be answered with a second wave of the revolution that’s more violent than its predecessor. There’s hidden hunger and rising unemployment, and Lebanon faces foreign entitlements that must be paid next March.”
FASTFACT
The process of forming a government faces obstacles, including the refusal of three main parties to participate in it: The Future Movement, the Progressive Socialist Party and the Lebanese Forces Party. Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab is continuing his political meetings to overcome the remaining obstacles and reservations about some names. Meanwhile, the political community is waiting to see whether Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah will link government formation with the US assassination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad on Friday. MP Fadi Karam, secretary of the Strong Republic parliamentary bloc, said: “We as Lebanese, if we’re aware of the interest of our country, shouldn’t let regional events affect our internal situation.”He added: “Our sole goal should be to save the economic situation we’re going through, regardless of what happens in the region.”
He said: “We as Lebanese can’t bear the repercussions of these events on our internal situation. As Lebanese, we must agree to keep Lebanon neutral, because if a team decides to continue linking Lebanon to regional events, this would have severe consequences for the country.”

Aoun promises Cabinet in a week as Mideast tensions escalate
Georgi Azar/Annahar/January 04/2020
BEIRUT: President Michel Aoun expressed hope Friday that a new government would be formed by next week, saying that it would bolster confidence both locally and abroad.
Aoun took to Twitter to assert that the government would go a long way in dealing with the current financial crisis gripping Lebanon.
“I hope that the government will see the light next week,” Aoun tweeted.
Aoun also vowed to implement the Mckinsey plan, which was released last year, in a bid to revamp Lebanon's ailing economic model.
“Work is underway to form a government comprised of new faces of experts in a bid to deal with the current situation and respond to the aspirations of the Lebanese,” the president said.
Ever since he assumed office, Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab has pledged to follow through on protestor's demands to form a Cabinet made up of experts with no political affiliations.
Diab, however, was nominated by Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, Hezbollah, and the Amal Movement, casting doubt on any Cabinet's true independence.
Aoun's comments came hours after the U.S launched an airstrike near Baghdad's airport, killing Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force.
In response, Iran vowed “harsh retaliation” for the killing of its top general, who had been the architect of its interventions across the Middle East.
Lebanon's Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, condemned the attack, labeling it a "violation of Iraqi sovereignty and a dangerous escalation against Iran that would increase tensions in the region."
"Lebanon always encourages dialogue, restraint and wisdom to solve problems instead of using force and violence in regional and international relations," a statement by the ministry read.
It also called on all stakeholders to spare the region and Lebanon of "any repercussions of the attack as it battles with a stifling economic and financial crisis."
The Iranian-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah vowed that the party would follow in the footsteps of Soleimani, underscoring that the "murderous Americans would not be able, God willing, to achieve any of their goals with this great crime”.
Iranian top officials were quick to lambast the killing, promising swift and severe retaliation for the assassination
"We will avenge Soleimani death at the right time and in the right place," a top official said Friday, labeling the attack as the U.S' biggest strategic mistake in decades.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 04-05/2020
White House gives lawmakers formal notice of Iraq strike: Officials
Reuters, Washington/Sunday, 5 January 2020
The White House transmitted on Saturday its formal notification to Congress of Friday’s US drone strike ordered by President Donald Trump that killed Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq, two senior congressional aides told Reuters. Many congressional Democrats have criticized Trump for failing to seek advance approval or notify Congress of the attack, which has caused a dramatic rise in tensions between Iran and the United States and its allies. The notification was sent under a 1973 US law called the War Powers Act, which requires the administration to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action or imminent actions.
Trump’s administration was expected to explain the circumstances, the authority under which the action was taken and the expected scope and duration of the military involvement. The White House did not immediately comment. The version submitted to Congress is classified and it is not clear if the White House will release an unclassified version, according to one of the aides, speaking on condition of anonymity. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said the strike was conducted without specific authorization from Congress and “without the consultation of the Congress.”The Pentagon on Friday briefed staff members from the House Armed Service Committee and Senate Armed Service Committee on the attack on Friday and other recent developments in Iraq. On Friday, Democratic US Senator Tim Kaine introduced a resolution to force a debate and vote in Congress to prevent further escalation of hostilities with Iran.

Trump says US will hit 52 Iranian sites if Iran attacks US targets
Reuters/Sunday, 5 January 2020
President Donald Trump said on Saturday the United States has targeted 52 Iranian sites that it would strike if Iran attacks any Americans or any US assets in response to Friday’s US drone strike that killed Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq. Trump wrote on Twitter that Iran “is talking very boldly about targeting certain USA assets” in response to Soleimani’s death. Trump said the United States has “targeted 52 Iranian sites” and that some were “at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD.”“The USA wants no more threats!” Trump said, adding that the 52 targets represented the 52 Americans who were held hostage in Iran after being seized at the US embassy in Tehran in 1979.

Trump says US ‘ready and prepared’ for any response after Soleimani’s death
Al Arabiya EnglishSaturday, 4 January 2020
US President Donald Trump said Washington was “ready and prepared” for any response and that he would take whatever action is necessary to protect Americans after the killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.
Trump said recent attacks on US targets in Iraq and assault on US embassy in Baghdad were carried out at Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani's direction, he said in his first remarks after US airstrikes killed Soleimani in Iraq on Friday. The US president added in his remarks that he has deep respect for the Iranian people and that the US does not seek regime change.

US Senator Ted Cruz plans to introduce resolution praising Soleimani operation
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 5 January 2020
US Republican Senator Ted Cruz plans to present a resolution praising US President Donald Trump’s decision to kill Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in a targeted strike, his aides confirmed to Fox News.
“[The resolution] is structured and worded the same way as a 2011 resolution that commended the Obama administration for killing Bin Laden, which received unanimous support in the Senate,” aides to Senator Cruz told Fox News. The proposed resolution comes as Cruz, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee member, criticized several Democrats who have opposed the operation that killed Soleimani in US strikes on Friday in Baghdad. “The end of Qassem Soleimani is welcome and long-overdue justice for the thousands of Americans killed or wounded by his Iranian-controlled forces across the Middle East, and for the hundreds of thousands of Syrians and Iraqi Sunnis ethnically cleansed by his militias,” Cruz wrote on Twitter on Friday. One of the Democrats Cruz has clashed with is Senator Ilhan Omar. “According to the Obama Department of Defense, Qasem Soleimani was a terrorist directly responsible for the murder of over 500 US servicemen & women. Why are congressional Dems outraged that he’s finally dead?” Cruz sub-tweeted a response to Omar on Friday. “So what if Trump wants war, knows this leads to war and needs the distraction? Real question is, will those with congressional authority step in and stop him? I know I will,” Omar wrote. US Democrats and Republicans unanimously voted and adopted a resolution on May 3, 2011, commending “the members of the military and intelligence community who carried out the mission that killed Osama bin Laden.” According to Cruz’s aides, the Republican Senator from Texas plans on using the same language on his pending resolution as the one used in 2011.

Top US general: Intelligence pointed to Soleimani planning attacks against US
Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 4 January 2020
The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said the United States “fully comprehends the strategic consequences" of the strike which killed Iran’s top commander Qassem Soleimani. Milley added that there was "clear, unambiguous" intelligence that Iran’s Soleimani was planning a significant campaign of violence against the United States. "Is there risk? Damn right there's risk. But we're mitigating it," he was quoted as saying.
Gen. Qassim Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, was killed in a US airstrike at Baghdad’s international airport on Friday. The strike also killed Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes, the deputy commander of Iran-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, the officials said.

EU urges ‘de-escalation’ after US killing of Iran’s Qassem Soleimani
AFP, Brussels/Sunday, 5 January 2020
European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Saturday stressed the “need for de-escalation” after the US assassination of a top Iranian in Baghdad. After meeting Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Brussels, Borrell tweeted: “Spoke w Iranian FM @JZarif about recent developments. Underlined need for de-escalation of tensions, to exercise restraint & avoid further escalation.”US President Donald Trump who ordered the precision drone strike in which Iran’s Major General Qassem Soleimani was killed on Friday has said the military mastermind was planning an “imminent” attack on US diplomats and the roughly 5,200 American troops deployed in Baghdad. Borrell said he also urged Zarif to maintain the landmark nuclear accord negotiated between Iran and the UN Security Council permanent members - Britain, France, China, Russia and the United States - plus Germany. The deal, also known as the JCPOA, offered Tehran relief from stinging sanctions in return for curbs to prevent it acquiring nuclear weapons. Agreed in 2015 it has been at risk of falling apart since Trump unilaterally withdrew from it in May 2018 and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. “Also discussed importance of preserving #JCPOA, which remains crucial for global security. I am committed to role as coordinator,” Borrell said. A furious Iran has vowed revenge for the killing of Soleimani, the chief architect of its military operations across the Middle East.

Britain’s navy to accompany UK-flagged ships through Strait of Hormuz
Reuters/Sunday, 5 January 2020
Britain’s navy will accompany UK-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz to provide protection after the killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani by US forces. Defense minister Ben Wallace said he had ordered the warships HMS Montrose and HMS Defender to prepare to return to escort duties for all ships sailing under a British merchant flag. “The government will take all necessary steps to protect our ships and citizens at this time,” he said. Wallace said that he spoke with his American counterpart Mark Esper, adding “We urge all parties to engage to de-escalate the situation.” “Under international law the United States is entitled to defend itself against those posing an imminent threat to their citizens,” he added.

German foreign minister will seek direct talks with Iran: Reports
Reuters, Berlin/Sunday, 5 January 2020
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas will seek direct talks with Iran to try to de-escalate tensions after a US airstrike killed Iran’s military commander Qassem Soleimani, a newspaper reported on Saturday.
“In the coming days, we will do all we can to counteract a further escalation of the situation - in the United Nations, the EU and in dialogue with our partners in the region, including in talks with Iran,” Maas told the Bild am Sonntag newspaper. Maas told the paper he was in close contact with his British and French counterparts, with the European Union’s foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell and with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Despite the heightened tension in the region, Maas said he wanted to continue Germany’s deployment of around 120 troops in Iraq under the US-led Operation Inherent Resolve. “The fight against ISIS is and remains in Germany’s interest, and the Bundeswehr is providing important training to this end on the ground,” Maas told the newspaper. The United States and its allies have suspended training of Iraqi forces due to the increased threat they face after the US air strike in Baghdad on Friday, the German military said in a letter seen by Reuters. Maas said the situation in the region had become more volatile but there was no concrete threat to Germany in the main travel areas so far.

For Trump, a Risky Decision Other Presidents Had Avoided
New York Times/January 04/2020
The End of an Era, the Challenges of Iran after Suleimani
The targeted assassination of Qassem Suleimani ushers a new era, be it inside the Iranian regime, and at both the regional and international levels. Whatever might be the reaction of the Iranian regime, it is the end of the reckless adventurism, arrogant provocation and exclusive reliance on violence to address contending strategic issues. The assassination of Suleimani attests the vulnerability of the Iranian regime and its reliance on destabilization, open-ended conflicts and utter disregard of diplomacy as a tool of policy crafting and conflict resolution. The myth of the lonely ranger patrolling the seams of a decaying Middle Eastern order is over, and the Iranian regime is confronted head on with the limits of its discretionary power, and the sabotaging strategy masterminded by Qassem Suleimani. The howling menaces broadcasted by the regime and its satellites are markers of vulnerability and helplessness and not the other way around. Whatever might be the retaliation, the Iranian regime has to reckon with two limitations: A/ the end of the political and military wandering throughout the craters of an imploded Middle East, and the need for a reassessment towards grand political and diplomatic arrangements; B/ the end of the Khamenei era and the need for a post-revolutionary road map which helps Iran extricate itself from the quagmires of a failed revolutionary era, with its cohort of failed and dysfunctional governance, debunked Islamic mythology of God’s governance ( حاكمية الله ), financial, economic, social and environmental crises, international isolation, conflict-prone foreign policy and enhancing strategic hazards, and a gnawing crisis of legitimacy pitting an estranged civil society against a corrupt and retrenched revolutionary oligarchy.
This is the scenario of an ending era and the grammar of its unfolding stages, and this is what accounts for the utter blindness which inevitably led to the assassination of Suleimani, and highlights the Islamic regime systemic impasses. The moderate conservatives within the Iranian regime ( Rouhani-Zarif ) have to seize the opportunity to open up to the various strands of the internal oppositions, and force the diplomatic foreclosures, for Iran to extricate itself from the self defeating and suicidal doldrums of a failed dystopia, and a conflictive policy framework. The ravings of the Islamic oligarchy, and the choreographed Shiite pathos and delirious bereavement ( هيهات منا الذلة، Hell no humiliation ) seem inappropriate, let alone counter-productive. It’s about time to recover the sense of reality, address the compounded failures of a bankrupted revolution, which has nothing to offer but the impasses of a psychotic and walled off imaginary of a failed dystopia. The death of Suleimani impels the demise of its delirious reverberations, and the reconnection with the real world which lies outside the panopticons of a threadbare revolutionary myth. In ordering the drone strike that killed Iran’s top security commander, Mr. Trump challenged predictions it could lead to a wider war in the Middle East.

Fury, Tears as Thousands Mourn Iran Commander Killed by US
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 04/2020
Thousands of Iraqis chanting "Death to America" on Saturday mourned an Iranian commander and others killed in a US drone attack that sparked fears of a regional proxy war between Washington and Tehran. The killing of Iran's Major General Qasem Soleimani on Friday was the most dramatic escalation yet in spiralling tensions between Iran and the United States, which pledged to send thousands more troops to the region. Iraqi political leaders and clerics attended the mass ceremony to honour 62-year-old Soleimani and the other nine victim of the pre-dawn attack on Baghdad international airport, including Iraqi paramilitary chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. US President Donald Trump said Friday he had decided to "terminate" Iran's military mastermind to prevent an "imminent" attack on US diplomats and troops. "We took action last night to stop a war. We did not take action to start a war," he insisted.
But the strike -- which killed four more Iranian Guards and five members of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi paramilitary network -- infuriated Iran, whose ambassador to the United Nations, Majid Takht Ravanchi, called it an "act of war" by its arch-enemy. On Saturday, the Hashed said a new strike had hit a convoy of their forces north of Baghdad, with Iraqi state media blaming the US. But US-led coalition spokesman Myles Caggins denied involvement, telling AFP: "There was no American or coalition strike."
Mourning procession
Mass ceremonies started in Baghdad Saturday for Soleimani -- a veteran military figure revered as a hero by many in Iran and the region -- and the other victims of Friday's attack. Iraq's caretaker premier Adel Abdel Mahdi joined Muhandis associate Hadi al-Ameri, Shiite cleric Ammar al-Hakim, former PM Nuri al-Maliki and other pro-Iran figures in large crowds accompanying the coffins. The coffins were first brought to a revered Shiite shrine in northern Baghdad, where thousands of mourners chanted "Death to America!" Dressed in black, they waved white Hashed flags and massive portraits of Iranian and Iraqi leaders, furiously calling for "revenge". The crowds headed south to a point near the Green Zone, the high-security district home to government offices and foreign embassies, including America's. The remains will later be taken to the Shiite holy city of Najaf to the south, and the remains of the Guards will then be flown to Iran, which has declared three days of mourning. As head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' foreign operations arm, Soleimani was a powerful figure domestically and oversaw wide-ranging Iranian involvement in regional power struggles. Soleimani had long been considered a lethal foe by Washington, with Trump saying he should have been killed "many years ago". Tehran has already named Soleimani's deputy, Esmail Qaani, to replace him. His first order of business was made clear Friday when Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised "severe revenge" for Soleimani's death.
US scales back ops
Iraqi paramilitary figures including US-blacklisted Qais al-Khazaali and militiaman-turned-politician Moqtada Sadr have called on their fighters to "be ready". And, elsewhere in the region, Lebanon's Tehran-backed Shiite movement Hezbollah threatened "punishment for these criminal assassins".
Amid the tensions, the Pentagon said up to 3,500 additional US troops would be dispatched to Iraq's southern neighbour Kuwait, to boost some 14,000 reinforcements already deployed to the region last year. There are approximately 5,200 US troops stationed across Iraq to train Iraqis to fight jihadists. They have faced a spate of rocket attacks that the US has blamed on pro-Iran factions and which last month killed an American contractor. On Saturday, a US official told AFP the US-led forces were scaling back operations and refocusing surveillance to watch for new rocket attacks. "Our first priority is protecting coalition personnel," the official said, saying there would be only "limited" training and anti-jihadist operations for now. US citizens were meanwhile urged to leave Iraq immediately and American staff were being evacuated from oil fields in the south. Abdel Mahdi warned Friday that the US strike would "spark a devastating war in Iraq", while President Barham Saleh pleaded for "voices of reason" to prevail. Pro-Iran factions in Iraq have seized on Soleimani's death to push parliament to revoke the security agreement allowing for the deployment of US forces on Iraqi soil. Iraqi lawmakers were to convene in emergency session on Sunday and expected to hold a vote. Analysts said the US strike, which sent world oil prices soaring, would be a game-changer. Phillip Smyth, a US-based specialist on Shiite armed groups, described the killing as "the most major decapitation strike that the US has ever pulled off."He expected "bigger" ramifications than either the 2011 operation that killed Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden or the 2019 raid that killed IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

New Air Strike on Pro-Iran Convoy in Iraq ahead of Soleimani Funeral
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 04/2020
A fresh air strike hit pro-Iran fighters in Iraq early Saturday, as fears grew of a proxy war erupting between Washington and Tehran a day after an American drone strike killed a top Iranian general. The killing of Quds Force commander Major General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad on Friday was the most dramatic escalation yet in spiralling tensions between Iran and the United States, which pledged to send more troops to the region -- even as President Donald Trump insisted he did not want war. Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, Majid Takht Ravanchi, told CNN that the killing was an "act of war on the part of the United States". A new strike on Saturday targeted a convoy belonging to the Hashed al-Shaabi, an Iraqi paramilitary network dominated by Shiite factions with close ties to Iran. The Hashed did not say who it held responsible but Iraqi state television reported it was a US air strike. A police source told AFP the strike left "dead and wounded," without providing a specific toll. There was no immediate comment from the US. It came hours ahead of a planned a mourning march for Soleimani, who was killed alongside Hashed number two Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in the precision drone strike. As head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps' foreign operations arm, Soleimani was a powerful figure domestically and oversaw wide-ranging Iranian involvement in regional power struggles -- and anti-US forces. Trump said the 62-year-old, who had been blacklisted by the US, had been plotting imminent attacks on American diplomats. His assassination has rattled the region, with Iraqis fearing a proxy war between Washington and Tehran.
Mourning procession
A total of five Revolutionary Guards and five Hashed fighters were killed in Friday's strike near Baghdad international airport. Their bodies will be laid tom rest in an elaborate mourning procession on Saturday, beginning with a state funeral in the capital and ending in the Shiite holy city of Najaf to its south. The bodies of the Guards will then be flown to Iran, which has declared three days of mourning for Soleimani.Tehran has already named his deputy, Esmail Qaani, to replace him. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised "severe revenge," while in Tehran tens of thousands of protesters torched US flags and chanted "death to America."Trump hailed the operation, saying he decided to "terminate" Soleimani after discovering he was preparing an "imminent" attack on US diplomats and troops. He insisted Friday Washington did not seek a wider conflict, saying: "We took action last night to stop a war. We did not take action to start a war." But hours later the Pentagon said between 3,000 to 3,500 troops would be dispatched to Iraq's southern neighbour Kuwait. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo praised Washington's partners in the region, but said their European allies "haven't been as helpful as I wish that they could be". "The Brits, the French, the Germans all need to understand that what we did, what the Americans did, saved lives in Europe as well," he said.
Embassy storming
Some 14,000 troops were already deployed as reinforcements to the Middle East last year, reflecting steadily growing tensions with Iran. There are approximately 5,200 US troops deployed across Iraq to help local forces ensure a lasting defeat of Islamic State group fighters.  Pro-Iran factions have seized on Soleimani's death to push parliament to revoke the security agreement allowing their deployment on Iraqi soil. Lawmakers are to convene in emergency session on Sunday and are expected to hold a vote. Paramilitary figures in Iraq including US-blacklisted Qais al-Khazaali and militiaman-turned-politician Moqtada Sadr called on their fighters to "be ready" after Friday's strike. And Lebanon's Tehran-backed Hizbullah movement threatened "punishment for these criminal assassins." Soleimani had long been considered a lethal foe by US lawmakers and presidents, with Trump saying he should have been killed "many years ago". Following Friday's strike, the embassy urged US citizens to leave Iraq immediately and American staff were being evacuated from oil fields in the south. Analysts said the strike, which sent world oil prices soaring, would be a game-changer. "Trump changed the rules -- he wanted (Soleimani) eliminated," said Ramzy Mardini, a researcher at the US Institute of Peace. Phillip Smyth, a US-based specialist on Shiite armed groups, described the killing as "the most major decapitation strike that the US has ever pulled off."He expected "bigger" ramifications than either the 2011 operation that killed Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden or the 2019 raid that killed IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Iraq's caretaker prime minister Adel Abdel Mahdi warned the strike would "spark a devastating war in Iraq" as President Barham Saleh pleaded "voices of reason" to prevail.

Syria Death Toll Tops 380,000 in almost Nine-Year War
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 04/2020
Almost nine years of civil war in Syria has left more than 380,000 people dead including over 115,000 civilians, a war monitor said in a new toll Saturday. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which has a network of sources across the country, said they included around 22,000 children and more than 13,000 women. The conflict flared after unprecedented anti-government protests in the southern city of Daraa on March 15, 2011. Demonstrations spread across Syria and were brutally suppressed by the regime, triggering a multi-front armed conflict that has drawn in jihadists and foreign powers. The conflict has displaced or sent into exile around 13 million Syrians, causing billions of dollars-worth of destruction. The Britain-based Observatory's last casualty toll on the Syrian conflict, issued in March last year, stood at more than 370,000 dead. The latest toll included more than 128,000 Syrian and non-Syrian pro-regime fighters. More than half of those were Syrian soldiers, while 1,682 were from the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah whose members have been fighting in Syria since 2013. The war has also taken the lives of more than 69,000 opposition, Islamist, and Kurdish-led fighters. It has killed more than 67,000 jihadists, mainly from the Islamic State group and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group dominated by Syria's former Al-Qaeda affiliate. The total death toll does not include some 88,000 people who died of torture in regime jails, or thousands missing after being abducted by all sides in the conflict. With the support of powerful allies Russia and Iran, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has inched his way back in recent years to controlling almost two-thirds of the country. That comes after a string of victories against rebels and jihadists since 2015, but also his forces being deployed to parts of the northeast of the country under a deal to halt a Turkish cross-border operation last year. Several parts of the country, however, remain beyond the reach of the Damascus government. They include the last major opposition bastion of Idlib, a region of some three million people that is ruled by the jihadists of HTS. An escalation in violence there in recent weeks has caused 284,000 people to flee their homes, according to the United Nations. In the northeast, Turkish troops and their proxies control a strip of land along the border after seizing it from Kurdish fighters earlier this year.
Kurdish-led forces control the far east Syria, where US troops have been deployed near major oil fields. Syria's conflict is estimated to have set its economy back three decades, destroying infrastructure and paralysing the production of electricity and oil.

NATO Suspends Training Missions in Iraq after Soleimani Killing
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 04/2020
NATO has suspended its training missions in Iraq, a spokesman for the alliance said Saturday, following the US killing of Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani. The NATO mission in Iraq, which consists of several hundred personnel, trains the country's security forces at the request of the Baghdad government to prevent the return of the Islamic State jihadist group. "NATO's mission is continuing, but training activities are currently suspended," said the spokesman, Dylan White. He also confirmed that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had spoken by telephone with US Secretary of Defence Mark Esper "following recent developments." A US defence official told AFP earlier Saturday that US-led forces helping Iraqi troops fight jihadists have scaled back operations. Soleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' Quds Force foreign operations arm, was killed in a US drone attack in Baghdad on Friday. The strike also killed the deputy head of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi, a network of mostly Shiite factions close to Iran and incorporated into the Baghdad government's security forces.
The attack shocked the Islamic republic and sparked fears of a new war in the Middle East.

French police shoot man dead near Paris after fatal stabbing
Reuters, Villejuif/Saturday, 4 January 2020
French police shot dead a man near Paris on Friday after he went on a rampage with a knife in a park, killing one person and wounding two more, prosecutors said. The attacker had a history of mental illness, had been admitted to hospital a few months ago, and was undergoing a course of psychiatric treatment, the spokesman said. The attack happened in the town of Villejuif, about 8 km (5 miles) south of central Paris. Police cordoned off the area, and ambulances and police vehicles lined a road approaching the park. The attack comes as the French capital has been rocked by major attacks resulting in mass casualties in the past four years. The two injured victims were being treated in nearby hospitals, Laure Beccuau, the prosecutor whose office is handling the case, told reporters. “The suspect tried to attack other victims during his murderous spree, who were able to escape,” she said. Laurent Nunez, the deputy interior minister, visited the scene and said the attacker likely would have hurt more people if police had not shot him when they did. “It was an extremely courageous act,” Nunez said of the police response. The prosecutor’s spokesman said the attacker, identified only as Nathan C., was born in 1997 in Lilas, a northeastern suburb of Paris. The man was not known to domestic intelligence services and had no criminal record, the spokesman said. During the attack, the man first targeted a woman. The woman’s spouse intervened to protect her, and in the process he was fatally stabbed. The woman was not gravely wounded, the spokesman said. In October last year, four people were stabbed to death at the Paris police headquarters by Mickael Harpon, an IT specialist working for the police. Prosecutors said that Harpon, who was shot dead by police, had come under the sway of radical extremists.
Coordinated bombings and shootings by extremist militants in November 2015 at the Bataclan theatre and other locations around Paris killed 130 people in the deadliest attacks in France since World War Two.

French knife attacker was radicalized, anti-terrorism prosecutors say
Reuters, Paris/Sunday, 5 January 2020
France’s anti-terrorism prosecutors on Saturday took over the investigation of a fatal knife rampage near Paris, saying they had established that the attacker had been radicalized and had carefully planned an act intended to spread terror. A man identified only as Nathan C. stabbed one person to death on Friday in a park in Villejuif, just outside southern Paris, and wounded two others. The attacker, who had a history of drug and psychiatric problems, was shot dead by police. “While the troubling psychiatric problems of the individual have indeed been confirmed, the investigations carried out in the last few hours have allowed us to establish a definite radicalization of the suspect, as well as evidence of planning and preparation carried out before the act,” the anti-terrorism prosecutor’s department said. “The steps taken to carry out the murderous act were carefully thought through, and were intended to spread intimidation or terror among the general public.”The department said it was also looking into whether or not Nathan C., who was born in 1997 in Lilas, a northeastern suburb of Paris, had any accomplices. Religious texts including a copy of the Koran were found among his belongings. The attacker had been to hospital a few months earlier and was undergoing psychiatric treatment. He also had drug problems. Paris has suffered major attacks by extremist militants in recent years. Coordinated bombings and shootings in November 2015 at the Bataclan theatre and other sites around Paris killed 130 people - the deadliest attacks in France since World War Two.

China tells Iran foreign minister that US should stop ‘abusing’ use of force
Reuters, Beijing/Saturday, 4 January 2020
The United States should stop abusing the use of force and seek solutions via dialogue, China’s foreign minister said, after a US air strike in Baghdad on Friday killed Iran’s most prominent military commander. The risky behavior of the US military violates the basic norms of international relations and will worsen tensions and turbulence in the region, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif on a phone call on Saturday.  China will play a constructive role in maintaining peace and security in the Middle East Gulf region, the Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement, citing Wang on the call.

Britain warns nationals against travel to Iraq and Iran
Reuters, London/Saturday, 4 January 2020
Britain warned its nationals to avoid all travel to Iraq, outside the Kurdistan region, and to avoid all but essential travel to Iran following the death of Qassem Soleimani. “Given heightened tensions in the region, the Foreign Office now advise people not to travel to Iraq, with the exception of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, and to consider carefully whether it's essential to travel to Iran,” Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said in a statement.

Russia's Lavrov, Iran's Zarif discuss Soleimani killing: statement
Reuters, Moscow/Saturday, 4 January 2020
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif over the phone on Friday to discuss the killing of Iran's military chief Qassem Soleimani, the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.“Lavrov expressed his condolences over the killing,” the statement said. "The ministers stressed that such actions by the United States grossly violate the norms of international law."

Germany reviews threat level after Iran general’s killing
The Associated Press, Berlin/Saturday, 4 January 2020
Germany’s security services have reviewed domestic and international threat levels following the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Iraq on Friday. The Interior Ministry confirmed a media report on Saturday that revised guidance has been circulated to police in Germany’s 16 states so they can take “appropriate security measures” to protect American and Jewish facilities. The ministry provided no details on the guidance disseminated by the Federal Police Office. Weekly newspaper Welt am Sonntag reported several German states have already raised their alert levels. Germany’s parliament recently voted in favor of a complete ban on activities in the country by the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Children among 14 dead in Burkina roadside bombing
AFP, Ouagadougou/Saturday, 4 January 2020
Fourteen civilians, including many schoolchildren, died Saturday when a roadside bomb blew up their bus in northwestern Burkina Faso, a security source told AFP. Four people were seriously hurt in the blast in Sourou province near the Mali border, the source added, as children returned to school after holidays.

China replaces its top official in protest-riven Hong Kong
The Associated Press, Beijing/Saturday, 4 January 2020
China replaced its top official in Hong Kong on Saturday, state media said, as anti-government protests in the semi-autonomous territory enter their eighth month. Luo Huining, the former Communist Party chief for Shanxi province, has been appointed to head China’s liaison office in Hong Kong, the official Xinhua News Agency said. He replaces Wang Zhimin, who had assumed office in September 2017. Xinhua did not give a reason for the change. The protests, which began in early June, have turned violent at times, with hard-line demonstrators clashing with police. The violence has eased somewhat in the past month, but sporadic clashes have continued. A huge and largely peaceful march on New Year’s Day degenerated into violence as some protesters attacked ATM machines with spray paint and hammers, smashed traffic lights and blocked downtown streets with paving stones ripped from sidewalks. Police used pepper spray, tear gas and a water cannon to drive off the demonstrators, although a government statement said officers were “deploying the minimum necessary force.” The protesters are demanding fully democratic elections for Hong Kong’s leader and legislature and an investigation into police use of force to suppress their demonstrations.

Tens of thousands march in southern India to protest citizenship law
Reuters, Hyderabad/Saturday, 4 January 2020
Over one hundred thousand protesters, many carrying the Indian tricolor flag, took part in a peaceful march in the southern city of Hyderabad on Saturday, chanting slogans against Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new citizenship law. The protest, dubbed the ‘Million March’, was organized by an umbrella group of Muslim and civil society organisations. More than 40 percent of Hyderabad’s estimated population of nearly 7 million are Muslims. Demonstrators were still pouring into the protest site late on Saturday afternoon, according to a Reuters witness, despite police saying no march would be allowed and that permission had only been granted for a 1,000-person gathering. The Indian government has faced weeks of acrimonious and, at times, violent protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which was passed by Modi’s government in December. The Hyderabad protesters held placards with slogans including “Withdraw CAA immediately,” and “India’s only religion in Secularism.”The Reuters witness said the protest remained peaceful, and estimated that more than one hundred thousand people were in attendance. The new law eases the path for non-Muslim minorities from the neighboring Muslim-majority nations of Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan to gain Indian citizenship. But, if combined with a proposed national register of citizens, critics of the CAA fear it will discriminate against minority Muslims in India and chip away at India’s secular constitution. Modi’s government maintains the new law is necessary to help minorities facing persecution in Muslim-majority nations, and it has called the pan-India protests politically motivated. At least 25 people have been killed in protest-related clashes with police since early December. Elsewhere, protests against the CAA also went ahead in several other Indian cities on Saturday with hundreds turning out for protests in cities in the southern state of Karnataka. Hundreds of men and women gathered at a rally in the tech hub of Bengaluru, with some accusing Modi’s government of trying to divide India along communal lines, to distract from a sharp domestic economic slowdown and job losses.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 04-05/2020
Qods Force commander Soleimani’s carelessness put him in the U.S. military’s crosshairs
Bill Roggio/FDD/January 04/2020
IRGC-QF chief Qassem Soleimani, middle, with Harakat al Nujaba head Akram al Kabi, left, and AAH commander Mohammad-Bagher Soleimani, right, in Aleppo, Syria, November 2015.
The US military’s ability to kill Qassem Soliemani, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – Qods Force, was the result of his complacency and carelessness while traveling to and from Iraq.
That’s because Soleimani became a public figure inside Iraq and acted as if he did not fear US action, US military officials familiar with his routine told FDD’s Long War Journal.
Soleimani was killed along with Abu Mahdi al Muhandis, the leader of the Hezbollah Brigades and deputy leader of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), and five others in a US military airstrike while traveling in a convoy from Baghdad International Airport last night. The Pentagon said that Soleimani “approved the attacks on the US Embassy in Baghdad” and was plotting further strikes against American interests in Iraq.
As the head of Qods Force, the special operations branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps which directs insurgencies and terror operations outside of Iran, Soleimani had a significant amount of blood on his hands. His actions have put him in the crosshairs of multiple intelligence services.
In Iraq alone, Soleimani’s backing of Shia militias and death squads made him responsible for the deaths of more than 600 US soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians, soldiers and police. His support of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad has enabled a perpetual war between Israel and Lebanon, and the Palestinians. Tens of thousands have died in those conflicts. In Yemen, Soleimani’s support of the Houthis has ensured the country has remained in a state of civil war. In Syria, Soleimani stood up Shiite militias, some from Iraq and Afghanistan, to battle the Islamic State and prop up the murderous Assad regime.
Despite his activities, Soleimani became “complacent” inside Iraq, a US military official told FDD’s Long War Journal. His outsized influence with many of Iraq’s political, military, and religious gave him a sense of importance and confidence. Sources said he felt he was “untouchable” as the “viceroy of Iraq.”
“He no longer feared us,” the military official who wished to remain anonymous said. “We designated him [as a terrorist] and listed Qods Force as a terrorist organization, yet we did nothing. Over time, he felt secure, he became complacent” while traveling in Iraq.
“More than a decade ago, Soleimani wouldn’t have flown into Baghdad International Airport,” another military official said. “He used to be more careful than that.”
Soleimani started to become careless after the US withdrew from Iraq, officials said, and particularly when he supported the Popular Mobilization Forces’ war against the Islamic State. The PMF is made up a Iraqi militias but is dominated by those backed by Soleimani and Iran. Muhandis, who was killed along with Soleimani, was the deputy head of the PMF and the leader of Hezbollah Brigades, a US-designated terrorist organization that is a key element of the PMF.
After Iraqi security forces collapsed in western, northern and central Iraq during the Islamic State’s onslaught culminating in the June 2014 takeover of Mosul, Soleimani and Iran capitalized on the situation. Soleimani, along with Muhandis and other key militia leaders, organized the PMF and took the fight to the Islamic State. The PMF spearheaded many operations to retake key Iraqi cities.
Soleimani became particularly emboldened when the US military ignored his growing influence and instead launched airstrikes against the Islamic State as the PMF and Iraqi forces went on the offensive.
The Qods Force leader soon began appearing in public while touring key battlefields. Soleimani would be photographed numerous times while meeting with PMF leaders and encouraging PMF fighters to take the battle to the Islamic State.
Yesterday’s strike ended more than a decade of frustration among many military officers and enlisted personnel.
“We often knew where he was and where he was going, we could track his movements at times,” a military officer said. “But we were never given the go ahead to take him out. Until now.”
*Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

Soleimani is dead, but the enemy still stands
Alireza Nader/FDD/January 04/2020
The killing of General Qassem Soleimani by U.S. forces has removed a huge threat to U.S. national security. But the source of the problem, the Islamic Republic in Iran, still stands. And while the regime is likely to retaliate against U.S. interests, Soleimani’s death comes at a vulnerable time for the regime as it fights economic collapse and popular rebellion. While Washington should brace itself for a deadly response, it should also not lose sight of the possibilities created by the passing of the region’s greatest terror mastermind.
Soleimani was the chief of the Quds Force, the infamous Revolutionary Guards unit responsible for the Islamic Republic’s campaign of expansion and terrorism across the Middle East, especially in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Soleimani was also Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s most trusted, loyal, and capable lieutenant, a true believer in the revolution who expressed his willingness to be “martyred” for the cause.
Soleimani’s killing comes after attacks against a U.S. military base in Iraq and a subsequent coordinated assault on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. Both attacks were the work of Iraqi proxies commanded by Soleimani. According to U.S. officials, fearing additional attacks on American troops, took preemptive action against Soleimani and his top lieutenant in Iraq, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Other top Iraqi proxies of Soleimani were reportedly arrested by U.S. forces.
The U.S. actions may be part of the broader effort by Washington to roll back Tehran’s influence in Iraq, especially in light of popular demonstrations against Iranian influence that have roiled the country for the last several months.
Khamenei has several retaliatory options.
He can command his extensive network in Iraq to attack U.S. forces and/or kidnap diplomats and other civilians. The regime may also decide to target U.S. interests at a time of its own choosing through terrorist attacks and assassinations — not only in the Middle East, but across the globe and even in America.
At the same time, Khamenei must be careful in his choice of escalation.
The Islamic Republic is in no shape to wage a full-out war; sanctions have devastated the Iranian economy and the regime just experienced the worst internal unrest since the 1979 revolution. The Iranian November 2019 popular uprising resulted in the regime’s killing of at least 1,500 Iranians and the maiming, arrest, and imprisonment of thousands more. Khamenei views the unrest as part of a wider “conspiracy” to overthrow his regime and is ready for future popular rebellions. He may retaliate for Soleimani’s death, but he must also take care not to endanger the existence of his already fraught regime.
Khamenei knows he cannot weather U.S. sanctions indefinitely and may need to reach some sort of agreement with Washington in the near future. Soleimani’s killing is likely to make negotiations with the Trump administration much more unpalatable, but a future U.S. administration that is willing to either re-enter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or negotiate a new agreement is still a possibility. The regime will want to retaliate for Soleimani, but not in a way as to completely close the possibility of negotiations on sanctions. The regime’s attacks on U.S. forces may have been an effort to raise the regime’s leverage by raising the heat on a war-wary American electorate. But Khamenei’s miscalculation has cost him a powerful weapon instead.
The U.S. policy of maximum pressure against the Islamic Republic must include rooting out its proxies in Iraq and across the Middle East.
Targeting the regime and its proxies’ sources of funding is important. But the Khamenei regime’s biggest enemy remains the Iranian people. The regime may have survived the November uprising, but it will not be safe from the wrath of millions of Iranians struggling for freedom and self-determination.
The U.S. must broaden its maximum pressure campaign by making the aspirations of the Iranian people a key pillar of its Iran policy. Washington should directly aid Iranian opposition forces, sanction the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (state media), undermine regime security forces through sanctions and cyber operations, investigate the regime’s networks in America, and start planning for scenarios in which the regime may collapse or be overthrown by the people.
Soleimani, one of the biggest threats to America, is gone. A worthy replacement will be hard for Khamenei to find. But there will be more men willing to fill his shoes as long as the Islamic Republic lives.
The true enemy still stands.
Alireza Nader is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (@FDD), a nonprofit, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) research institute focusing on foreign policy and national security. Follow him on Twitter @AlirezaNader

Germany's Middle Eastern Criminal Clans
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/January 04/2020
"For decades, police turned a blind eye to extended criminal families, in part to avoid being accused of racial discrimination. This has made the present-day challenge all the more difficult as clan structures have solidified, parallel societies have formed, and the enemy has grown." — Deutsche Welle, February 3, 2019.
"There are now half a million people across Germany who belong to a clan.... Clans behave in their German surroundings as if they were tribes in the desert. Everything outside the clan is enemy territory and available for plunder". — Ralph Ghadban, a Lebanese-German political scientist and a leading expert on clans in Germany; The German Times, October 2019.
"It is known that the Osmanen Germania gang has received financial assistance from Turkey's ruling Justice and Development (AKP) party. The gang has essentially functioned as [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan's armed wing in Germany." — Sebastian Fiedler, head of the Association of German Criminal Investigators.
The clans see the state as, "an object of ridicule, a target for exploitation" — Falko Liecke, Neukölln's deputy district mayor and district councilor for youth and health. The German Times, October 2019.
In a recently aired documentary by German broadcaster ARD, about Germany's Middle Eastern criminal family gangs -- or clans, as they are called in Germany -- the head of Germany's Federal Criminal Police Agency (BKA) Holger Münch, said "In about one-third of proceedings, suspects also included immigrants — and that means that we need to keep a very close eye on this phenomenon".
Münch seems to have been referring to the fact that migrants who arrived in Germany from Syria, Iraq and other countries during the migrant crisis in 2015-16 are now starting to compete with Germany's long-established criminal family gangs whose original founders arrived in Germany from Lebanon in the late 1970s during Lebanon's civil war.
German authorities fear that this competition might lead to even more violence: Some of the newcomers have "combat experience" from living in war zones, as police chief of the city of Essen, Frank Richter, told ARD. "Of course," he added, "this would be a very, very different situation from what we have at the moment".
Criminal Middle Eastern family clans are already a large problem in Germany. The most well-known are mainly based in Berlin, Bremen, North Rhine-Westphalia, and Lower Saxony, and are named Abou-Chaker, Al-Zein, Remmo, and Miri. Several of the families are also known as Lebanese mafia clans. Their criminal activities include robberies, protection money, drug dealing and prostitution.
In May, a study presented by Interior Minister Herbert Reul of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) revealed that 104 criminal clans were active there. Some 6,500 clan-linked suspects were believed to have been responsible for 14,225 offenses between 2016 and 2018. This included two murders and 24 attempted murders, in addition to bodily harm, robbery, and blackmail, police said. Ten clans alone were said to have committed one third of the crimes. According to Reul:
"For years, reports on this problem from citizens and from police circles were deliberately ignored. Whether it was from misunderstood political correctness, or because it was considered that things that are not supposed to happen were impossible — this is now finally over. We are not under the rule of clans, but the rule of law."
According to police, the largest number of suspects linked to clans were German nationals (36%), followed by Lebanese (31%), Turks (15%) and Syrians (13%).
As reported by the strategic analyst Soeren Kern, as late as December 2015, then NRW Interior Minister Ralf Jäger rejected a study to determine the scope of criminal clans in NRW because it would be politically incorrect:
"Further data collection is not legally permissible. Both internally and externally, any classification that could be used to depreciate human beings must be avoided. In this respect, the use of the term 'family clan' (Familienclan) is forbidden from the police point of view."
Similarly, the head of Germany's Federal Criminal Police Agency Holger Münch, told the ARD broadcaster that, "such things should not be allowed to go on for years and years — that is, I believe, the biggest lesson that we need to learn from the development in the last 30 years."
According to Deutsche Welle:
"For decades, police turned a blind eye to extended criminal families, in part to avoid being accused of racial discrimination. This has made the present-day challenge all the more difficult as clan structures have solidified, parallel societies have formed, and the enemy has grown".
Ralph Ghadban, a Lebanese-German political scientist and a leading expert on clans in Germany has estimated that:
"There are now half a million people across Germany who belong to a clan, though not every person is a criminal. Many nationalities are represented. There are Lebanese clans, Turkish, Kurdish, Albanian, Kosovan and even Chechen extended families who run illegal businesses".
"Clans behave in their German surroundings as if they were tribes in the desert. Everything outside the clan is enemy territory and available for plunder" Ghadban told The German Times in October.
Family clans are not the only kind of organized Middle Eastern gangs operating in Germany. There are also biker gangs, an area that was once dominated by more "traditional" biker gangs such as Hells Angels. According to Sebastian Fiedler, head of the Association of German Criminal Investigators:
"Crimes perpetrated by the Hells Angels are still an issue... I'd say that these older groups are now more like illicit businesses. ...What is different today is that biker gangs tend to have members from various ethnic backgrounds, and some gangs have ties to extremist groups, or sometimes follow a foreign agenda. In sum, the biker gangs have become much more heterogeneous."
Fiedler added that some gangs also have ties abroad:
" It is known that the Osmanen Germania gang has received financial assistance from Turkey's ruling Justice and Development (AKP) party. The gang has essentially functioned as [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan's armed wing in Germany. Many biker gangs who are making headlines today are similar. Most are no longer just interested in controlling illicit markets but now have larger goals. These always have a financial dimension."
German police are seeking to crack down on the problem by showing a zero-tolerance policy, but the question is if that approach is sufficient. According to Ralph Ghadban:
"A policy that finally recognizes the problem of clan crime, a police force that carries out continuous raids and a judiciary that uses all legal means are together still not enough. About a third of clan members actually want to lead a normal life. They feel trapped in their clans."
The crackdown must therefore be backed up by programs for people who want to get out of the clans. Berlin's Neukölln district is setting up such a program. According to Martin Hikel, the mayor of Neukölln district:
"At the heart of these patriarchal structures are people who don't want to end up in forced marriages, people who don't want to live in a state of permanent rivalry, or even war with another clan, to be constantly hiding from the police. But these people need help. We're setting up a program to help them turn their backs to this way of life and start a new one elsewhere".
Berlin's interior secretary, Andreas Geisel, recently said that gang crime in Berlin is controlled by "about 20 influential families, seven or eight of whom are extremely involved in crime". According to The German Times:
"There are streets in Neukölln, Kreuzberg and Gesundbrunnen [districts in Berlin, ed.] where police will only dare to tread with a squad. Even during routine actions like citing a clan member for parking in a bike path, police officers are often surrounded and threatened by relatives and associates. 'Clan members stand out for the way they act on their territory,' says a police spokesperson. 'Their message is: 'Scram! This is our street!'"
Neukölln is one of the districts in Berlin with the most problems, including the abuse of the welfare system by the clans. According to Neukölln's deputy district mayor and district councilor for youth and health, Falko Liecke, the clans "...see unemployment benefits as a source of income to supplement all their other sources."
"They're not uncomfortable with welfare assistance. After all, they don't have to rely on it to get by. They're not interested in laws. They try only to extract gains from what the state and society can offer."
According to Liecke, the clans see the state as, "an object of ridicule, a target for exploitation".
According to Geisel, fighting the clan crime will take "decades": "It's a marathon, not a sprint" he said.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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The Ottomans are back - what does that mean for Israel?
Seth Franztzman/Jerusalem Post/January 04/2020
Tracing regional dynamics over the last century is vital to understanding the combustible situation today.
In Libya, a long-forgotten civil war was raging. The government in Tripoli, often called the Government of the National Accord, was losing ground to the Libyan National Army, led by a man named Khalifa Haftar, whose forces were based in eastern Libya.
Turkey supports Tripoli; Egypt supports Haftar. It is part of a much wider struggle that represents Turkey’s attempt to revive influence not seen since the end of the First World War. A century ago, the European powers thought that the Ottoman Empire could be easily chopped up and its territories given away.
Today Turkey is back, moving into areas like northern Iraq, northern Syria, Libya and even the Gulf and Somalia.
The Paris Peace Conference that ended in January 1920, 100 years ago, helped the stage for many of the issues still facing the Middle East. It is hard to remember now, but much of what we take for granted regarding the borders of the Middle East is in some ways arbitrary. They were decided on partly after World War I in a series of treaties, such as the Treaty of Sevres of 1920 and Treaty of Lausanne of 1923.
Why is Hatay province, once called Alexandretta, in Turkey, when it could have been in Syria? Why is Mosul in Iraq and not in Turkey, as Turkey once claimed it? Why do the Kurds lack a state? The recent tensions in the Middle East, the unresolved questions from Lebanon to Iraq, Libya, Turkey and Gaza, are all part of this.
LET US begin where Turkey now ends its recent ambitions – in Libya. Libya was once the setting for a quiet proxy war that reflects divisions in the Muslim world between the Muslim Brotherhood, which Turkey’s ruling party has roots in, and countries that oppose the Brotherhood.
Turkey’s ruler President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has increasingly global ambitions. Embattled Libya could be a key to them, thought Turkish leaders around Erdogan. Turkey was already sending drones and armored vehicles to Tripoli. But they had not stemmed the tide. Haftar vowed in November to take Tripoli and rid the country of “terrorists” and “militias.” Turkey responded that the “warlord” Haftar would have to be stopped.
But Turkey wanted something in return for helping to stop him. It wanted rights to the Mediterranean between Turkey and Libya.
If you draw a line from Libya to Turkey, you run into Greek islands like Crete. But if you draw a line from eastern Libya, there is a passage between Cyprus and the Greek islands that narrowly links Turkey to Libya. It is here that Turkey made a bold chess move. In exchange for sending some fighters to bolster the Tripoli government, Turkey would get an exclusive economic zone that splits Cyprus from Greece by sea and gives Turkey rights to explore for natural gas. It also sinks the dreams of Greece and Cyprus to invite companies like ENI to explore for natural resources under the sea.
The play by Turkey has muscle behind it. Ankara has been sending its navy out to conduct drills around Cyprus, showing the flag and its power. Turkey has new sea-based missiles. It is buying new drilling ships. Cyprus thought it was ahead of the curve, signing deals with Egypt in 2003, Lebanon in 2007 and Israel in 2010. But Turkey has thrown down a gauntlet.
One should understand Turkey’s treatment of the Greeks and Cypriots historically. Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 claiming to help protect members of the Turkish minority. Turkey has stayed ever since, recognizing Northern Cyprus as a country. No one else recognizes it, but Turkey says Northern Cyprus has widespread rights to explore for gas around Cyprus. Turkey has sent drones to Cyprus to show that it will police those waters it claims.
For Turkey, the Cyprus operation was a way to show it would not be removed from more islands in the Mediterranean – for instance, the Dodecanese Islands, near Rhodes, were taken by Italy during a war with the Ottoman Empire in 1912. Rhodes also was held by Italy, then by Germany during World War II, and finally became part of Greece in 1947. Turkey today says that these islands, even though they are part of Greece technically, cannot be used by Greece to determine its rights to the waters off the islands. Instead, the continental shelf that extends from Turkey gives Erdogan’s country rights to the sea.
TURKEY’S DECISION to revive its claims to the sea and send forces to Libya should be seen in light of a century of Turkey’s policies since the fall of the Ottoman Empire. The Ottomans lost Libya to the Italians in 1912. Now, the Turks are back.
Turkey has flirted with various policies since the end of the Ottomans. For a few years in the 1920s, it looked like the country would be dismantled. However, Turkey pushed the Greeks out of modern-day Turkey and embarked on a campaign of Turkish nationalism and secularism that supplanted European rule in Istanbul and created the current borders. But Ankara was never entirely satisfied. It felt that its formerly powerful role had been reduced.
During the Cold War, Turkey was an ally of the US and also suffered its own internal troubles and coups. At the time, Turkey’s neighbors seemed to be advancing. Syria under Hafez Assad, father of the current embattled president, was trying to be an Arab socialist paradise. Borrowing heavily from secular nationalist traditions of European fascism blended with socialism and Arab nationalism, the Assadist regime was brutal to dissenters, but treated loyalists decently. It wanted to modernize and look like an eastern European state, with the Communist-style brutalist high-rises and lots of Soviet tanks and other assorted accoutrements. It left to fester the questions that arose after 1920. For instance, what about the Kurds in eastern Syria? The Assadist Ba’athist regime treated them like they didn’t exist, suppressing them and denying many citizenship.
The Assad regime also ignored large Arab tribes along the Euphrates. Those tribes sometimes looked to Saddam’s Iraq across the border for cultural relations with other tribes in Anbar province. Saddam Hussein, like the Assads, was a product of the Arab nationalist revolutionary era. All these regimes, from Assad to Saddam to Nasser’s Egypt, were products of a reaction against the colonial era of the British and French mandates. They had replaced the old system of kings and colonials and sheikhs. They wanted modernity.
In some way, they were reactions also against the Jewish nationalism of Zionism, which they hated, and also the secular Turkish nationalism of Ataturk. If there were to be Jewish and Turkish states, so there would be an Arab nationalist group of states as well.
Iraq never worked out the problems the British colonials had saddled it with. The British wanted to include Mosul in Iraq so there would be more Sunni Arabs to support the Hashemite king they had chosen. The king was from what is now Saudi Arabia and a brother of the king of Jordan at the time. But for Iraq, he became the first Iraqi.
That didn’t mean much to Kurds in the north, who also wanted freedom and independence. It is sometimes forgotten that a brief independent Kurdish state called the Republic of Mahabad had arisen in 1946 after World War II. Like the changeover in power of Rhodes, or the question of whether Hatay would be part of Turkey, this republic was a byproduct of unresolved questions from the 1920s.
Kurds wanted freedom and rights. Instead, they were forced to be part of states that didn’t recognize or want them. They were told to be Arab nationalists or Turkish nationalists, not Kurds. For the colonial powers, this didn’t matter. For the nationalist regimes, they were a headache. For the US and Soviets in the Cold War, they were tools to be used and discarded.
This system that arose in the 1920s and then in the 1960s revolved around questionable states like Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Egypt was an ancient state, but Damascus had its own ambitions. At one point, the Arab Revolt had sought to hold Damascus as part of a greater Arab state. The British and French said no to that. Instead, the Kingdom of Jordan became a Bedouin kingdom. The kingdoms that were created in the 20th century may have seemed weak at the outset, but they had more staying power than the nationalist regimes. Instead, the regimes – from Gaddafi in Libya to Saddam in Iraq and Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen – were overthrown. The Nassserist regime, too, fell apart in 2011 when the Arab Spring broke out. Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia was also forced out. So too the Algerian regime.
Why did some of the monarchies survive and not others? The British helped shepherd to power the kingdom of Egypt of Farouk. King Idris of Libya appeared a more formidable ruler, but he was pushed from office in 1969 while away for medical treatment in Turkey. The Gulf monarchies, by contrast, and the Moroccan and Jordanian monarchies, have survived. Likely because their states are either more homogenous or because of their traditions of rule, they have had more success.
THE PAST 10 years have witnessed an extraordinary reversal, as most of the Arab countries have been torn apart from within. Where monarchies or Arab nationalism failed, a rising religious extremism preyed on weak states. But even this Islamist terrorist rise did not supplant the new states.
ISIS came and went. Even the Muslim Brotherhood, briefly rising in Gaza and even in Tripoli or other areas, and seeking election in Tunisia, Jordan and other places, has not been the success that some thought. Political Islam is not winning.
What has happened is that the historically powerful periphery states, Turkey and Iran, have risen to grab influence throughout the Middle East. These states, as the Ottoman Empire and Persian Empire, were weakened in 1920 and European powers supplanted their historic role. But now, with Europe looking more insular, these countries are rising again.
Turkey’s expedition to Libya is just one symbol of that new world order in the Middle East.

Analysis/The Four Critical Questions After the Assassination of Iran’s Soleimani
Anshel Pfeffer/Haaretz/January 04/2020
انشيل فايفر/هآرتس: الأسئلة الأربعة الحرجة بعد اغتيال قاسم سليماني
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It’s impossible to exaggerate the repercussions of this event, and even Trump’s most steadfast supporters should be regretting the absence of a seasoned national-security staff around him
The United States just took out the most important symbol of Iranian power and its most effective operational tool in the region. It’s impossible to exaggerate the influence wielded by Qassem Soleimani in the 22 years he commanded the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force.
There was the power he had over governments and fighting forces across the region and his ability to shape events – from his physical presence on the front lines, which over the years took on an almost mythic quality, to his quiet diplomacy, coupled always with intimidation and bribery behind the scenes. His loss to the Iranian Islamic revolutionary regime, especially to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is a crushing blow, and on an operational and intelligence-gathering level, a major coup for the Trump administration.
For many countries across the Middle East, especially in Syria and Iraq, where Soleimani was directly responsible for spreading so much death and destruction, as well as for Iranian dissidents, it will be a moment for grim satisfaction, even jubilation. Iran will have no choice but to retaliate with massive force and try to extract painful retribution from the United States and its allies in the region.
This is the most fateful action by the Trump administration in the Middle East in the past three years – the blatant assassination of effectively the second-most powerful man in his country and over the past two decades the most powerful in the region.
It’s impossible to exaggerate the repercussions of this event, and even Donald Trump’s most steadfast supporters should be regretting the absence of a seasoned national-security staff around him, capable of challenging his decisions and assumptions. For the past 22 years, Soleimani was a constant if bitter foe; without him, matters become a lot less predictable.
There are now two critical questions to ask of Iran and two of the United States.
Will Iran abandon its caution?
Ever since it was forced to accept a humiliating stalemate at the end of its bloody war with Iraq in the ‘80s, the Iranian leadership has refrained from meeting its adversaries head on, instead developing asymmetrical warfare and proxy management to an art.
The million-plus deaths in the Iran-Iraq War and the recognition that Iran lacked the firepower and resources to fight another direct war were the constant factors in Soleimani’s grand strategy. Now both his absence from the leadership discussions and the enormous anger at his assassination may affect Iran’s innate caution.
There are a range of targets for Iran to strike back at. U.S. forces in the region, Western oil tankers in the Gulf, America’s main allies – the Saudis and Israel. And does Iran now strike, as usual, using proxies like the Yemeni Houthis and Hezbollah? Or does avenging Soleimani necessitate his own Quds force spearheading the counterattack?
Whatever the course of action, Iran will need to be able to contain the escalation to ensure it can prevent a spillover into its own territory, at it has largely achieved since the end of the Iran-Iraq War. But the man in charge of that strategy is no longer there.
How will Soleimani’s loss affect Iranian power?
It’s no coincidence that Soleimani held on as Quds force commander for 22 years and was mentioned even as a possible heir to the supreme leader (though that was almost certainly an exaggeration). No one could hold in his hand all the loose strands of the shifting regional power play and manipulate them like puppet strings as he did.
Soleimani played the key role in destabilizing Iraq after the American invasion. He transformed Hezbollah from a medium-sized militia into an army-sized force and the main power broker in Lebanon. And then came his greatest achievement, at the cost of hundreds of thousands of deaths: Without him Bashar Assad would not have remained president of Syria in his Damascus palace – even if Soleimani had his share of failures as well.
He had trusted, able and experienced lieutenants, but none have his range of contacts across the Middle East and beyond, and more crucially, none inspire anything near the respect and fear that just the mention of “Haji Qassem” had in cabinet rooms and command centers in half a dozen countries.
His loss will have an effect within the Tehran power structure as well. Soleimani’s power was such that despite the setbacks in Syria in the last three years, when Israel stymied many of Soleimani’s plans to establish long-term military bases there, and as both the faction around President Hassan Rohani and protesters on Iran’s streets called for investing resources at home instead of exporting the Islamic revolution abroad, Khamenei continued to support Soleimani.
Without Soleimani to lead the campaign, Iran could now, for once, drastically misjudge its response and lead to an all-out war. But if the fallout is contained, there is the hope that without Soleimani, Iran could start curbing its regional aspirations.
What was Trump trying to achieve?
After a year of what seemed like dithering on the Iranian front, Trump appealed for a high-level meeting with Rohani and was rebuffed. He failed to respond to attacks on shipping in the Gulf, to the shooting down of an American drone and to missiles launched at Saudi oil installations.
And most crucially perhaps, after a year when Trump almost gave Iran the most glittering prize in the shape of a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, he has suddenly pivoted 180 degrees to a full-on confrontation, with airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, the immediate deployment of combat troops and now the assassination of Soleimani.
Ostensibly, the reason for the airstrikes was the death of an American citizen in an attack by Iranian-backed militias in northern Iraq, and the killing of Soleimani was part of a wider move to prevent further attacks on American personnel and bases. And yet, killing a figure like Soleimani is a strategic move. Did Trump have a broader objective or was the temptation to exploit an opportunity to take out such a prominent figure, someone even Trump would have been acquainted with from his very short daily intelligence briefings, simply too great?
The United States has had similar opportunities to strike Soleimani in the past. But the potential backlash was judged as too great. Besides, at various points over the past two decades, the United States had indirectly cooperated with him in the hope that this could stabilize Iraq and help fight Al-Qaida and the Islamic State.
Whether Trump gave the order this time on an impulse, as part of a wider campaign against Iran, and who knows, in the hopes that it could boost his prospects entering the election year, will have a major effect on what comes next.
Does anyone in the administration have a plan?
Four months ago, Trump still had a team of dedicated Iran hawks in the National Security Council. But John Bolton is gone, an implacable enemy, and Trump has publicly repudiated Bolton’s visions of regime change in Iran. That may well be a good thing, but with the hollowing out of the NSC and the upper echelons of the State Department, there’s barely a skeleton of a professional staff of advisers around Trump, but instead a group of sycophantic hangers on. He still has the largest, most professional and best-equipped armed forces and intelligence community in the world, but no one really in charge of strategic thinking.
Trump could be blundering into a ferocious war with Iran without a plan. And even if he doesn’t go to war, extricating the United States from this escalation could inflict damage both on America’s interests and on its allies. The U.S. is a thousand times more powerful, but Iran, since the revolution of 1979, has proved itself more than capable of exploiting every moment of hesitation, every misjudgment and every temporary vacuum provided by U.S. administrations.
And these are uncharted waters whose direction no one can predict. A venal and vainglorious president in the White House and an Iranian leadership that has just lost its wisest member – both fighting for survival at home – are now facing off while standing on the brink.

The End of an Era, the Challenges of Iran after Suleimani
Charles Elias Chartoni/January 04/2020
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/82031/charles-elias-chartounithe-end-of-an-era-the-challenges-of-iran-after-suleimani-the-iranian-imperial-adventurism-and-the-middle-eastern-tinderbox/
The targeted assassination of Qassem Suleimani ushers a new era, be it inside the Iranian regime, and at both the regional and international levels. Whatever might be the reaction of the Iranian regime, it is the end of the reckless adventurism, arrogant provocation and exclusive reliance on violence to address contending strategic issues. The assassination of Suleimani attests the vulnerability of the Iranian regime and its reliance on destabilization, open-ended conflicts and utter disregard of diplomacy as a tool of policy crafting and conflict resolution. The myth of the lonely ranger patrolling the seams of a decaying Middle Eastern order is over, and the Iranian regime is confronted head on with the limits of its discretionary power, and the sabotaging strategy masterminded by Qassem Suleimani. The howling menaces broadcasted by the regime and its satellites are markers of vulnerability and helplessness and not the other way around.
Whatever might be the retaliation, the Iranian regime has to reckon with two limitations: A/ the end of the political and military wandering throughout the craters of an imploded Middle East, and the need for a reassessment towards grand political and diplomatic arrangements; B/ the end of the Khamenei era and the need for a post-revolutionary road map which helps Iran extricate itself from the quagmires of a failed revolutionary era, with its cohort of failed and dysfunctional governance, debunked Islamic mythology of God’s governance ( حاكمية الله ), financial, economic, social and environmental crises, international isolation, conflict-prone foreign policy and enhancing strategic hazards, and a gnawing crisis of legitimacy pitting an estranged civil society against a corrupt and retrenched revolutionary oligarchy.
This is the scenario of an ending era and the grammar of its unfolding stages, and this is what accounts for the utter blindness which inevitably led to the assassination of Suleimani, and highlights the Islamic regime systemic impasses. The moderate conservatives within the Iranian regime ( Rouhani-Zarif ) have to seize the opportunity to open up to the various strands of the internal oppositions, and force the diplomatic foreclosures, for Iran to extricate itself from the self defeating and suicidal doldrums of an exhausted failed dystopia, and a conflictive policy framework. The ravings of the Islamic oligarchy, and the choreographed Shiite pathos and delirious bereavement ( هيهات منا الذلة، Hell no humiliation ) seem inappropriate, let alone counter-productive. It’s about time to recover the sense of reality, address the compounded failures of a bankrupted revolution, which has nothing to offer but the impasses of a psychotic and walled off imaginary of a failed dystopia. The death of Suleimani impels the demise of its hallucinatory reverberations, and the reconnection with the real world which lies outside the panopticons of a threadbare revolutionary myth.

The Iranian Imperial Adventurism and the Middle Eastern Tinderbox
Charles Elias Chartouni/January 04/2020
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/82031/charles-elias-chartounithe-end-of-an-era-the-challenges-of-iran-after-suleimani-the-iranian-imperial-adventurism-and-the-middle-eastern-tinderbox/
Observers of the Middle Eastern scenery have a hard time accounting for this Iranian military and political frenzy, and the blind violence which features the Iranian regime overall demeanor, be it domestically or at the regional level. There is no other approach to the endemic crisis of a dysfunctional and decaying governance outside State terror: mob and terror squads violence, indiscriminate political assassinations, public hanging and arbitrary detentions; Whereas, the tangled web of regional conflicts induced by disruptive Iranian military interventionism are unlikely to be tackled through diplomatic overtures, international arbitraging and referral to international law and institutions. The systemic nexus which lies at the very roots of this inherently conflictual configuration, is the fear elicited by the relationships between international normalization and internal liberalization, the survival of the regime and the imponderables of Iranian and Shiite geopolitics.
The plot defines on the intersection between the moribund dystopia of the Islamic revolution, its bankrupted governance, the overall exasperation of the Iranian society, the disarray elicited by tempestuous Iranian expansionism, and the volatility of an imploded Middle East. What is mostly worrisome is the fact that the Iranian regime doesn’t seem to realize the magnitude of these conflated destructive dynamics, and tends to overestimate its ability to manage the deliberately created havoc, through incremental violence and sheer disregard of its effects. The illusion created by the costly and unsustainable interventionism is overshadowed by the widening realms of chaos, its countervailing Sunni radicalism, the decay of what’s left of the inter-State system, the heightened tempo of conflict militarization, and the deepening of international claustration, at a time when the internal legitimacy of the Islamic regime has reached its highest peak plainly displayed by the savagery of internal repression.
The domination of a totalitarian ideology, the vested interests of a corrupt clerisocracy and its repressive auxiliaries ( Pasdaran, Revolutionary Guards and their allies among the merchants of the Bazar and a subservient gerrymandered parliament .... ), the enduring imponderables of Iranian geopolitics ( Sunnite imperialism and terrorist movements ), the short term returns of political and military interventionism throughout the larger Middle East ( Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Koweït, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestinian Territories and their interfaces ), and the effective domestic repression, have created a psychotic state of mind which prevents the politics of normalization and liberalization from setting a new course that mends the rifts between a waning Islamic dystopia and a post-Islamist society, and the mandated openings of a new global order. The latest buccaneering in the Gulf waters, political obstructionism and destabilization ( Irak, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinian Territories .... ), the insidious instrumentalization of the nuclear accords with the USA and the world community, and the everlasting game of victimization and blame externalization ( Conspiracy theory ), fully account for this convoluted conflict dynamic which forecloses diplomatic openings and preempts normalization. The Iranian society is confronted with future tough choices and hobbled by a deadweight legacy and its deleterious consequences.

Baghdad now has a chance to push back against Iranian influence
Michael Pregent/Al Arabiya English/January 04/ 2020
Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes, who were both killed in a US bombing in Baghdad on Friday morning, were considered the real power in Iraq, so their deaths change everything.
In Iraq, the US strikes offer a great opportunity for Iraqis to push back against Iranian influence, and in the conflict with Iran, their killing has sown fear about what President Donald Trump might do next.
Soleimani, the general of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force who stood next to the Supreme Leader, and his Iraqi commander al-Mohandes – both designated terrorists by the US – died in a drone strike at Baghdad International Airport.
In Iraq, Soleimani was so brazen that he walked around in broad daylight taking selfies. The invisible general who also masterminded proxy Iranian militias in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, was out of the shadows, taking photos and claiming victory over ISIS even when the US and Iraqi special forces that did all the heavy lifting.
Soleimani was so comfortable in Iraq that he landed at Baghdad Airport from a trip to Lebanon, went to baggage claim, met with militia protocol and the second most feared man in Iraq, al-Mohandes.
Bush and Obama had both baulked at the idea of striking Soleimani, but Trump pulled the trigger after the shocking New Year’s Eve attack on the US embassy in Baghdad, on the grounds that they were planning to kill more Americans. So what’s next?
Iranian Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani is Soleimani’s replacement, but he is not the leader or the strategist Soleimani was.
Ghaani will have to earn the respect and fear Soleimani had by killing Iraqis and Iranians – something the protesters on the streets of Tehran and Baghdad are ready to deal with, and something the US is ready to deal with.
This offers a great opportunity for Iraqis to push back against Iranian influence. The remaining Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force militia commanders in Iraq are not as confident as they were with Soleimani. Soleimani was their muscle and their credibility.
This is a chance for those in the Iraqi government and the Iraqi security forces, those that feared Soleimani and al-Mohandes, to push back and go after remaining militia leaders like Hadi al-Ameri and Qays Khazali, whose strength came from Soleimani and al-Mohandes. Their skills pale in comparison; Hadi in charisma and Khazali in leadership.
It is time to put pressure on the Iraqi government to arrest both of them and tell them there is no place in Iraq for militia leaders who kill innocent protesters.
We expect rocket and mortar attacks, and kidnappings to be planned across the region. With every provocation and every attack – whether successful or not – the targeting of the Iranian Supreme Leader’s top general means the US is not afraid to hurt the regime where it hurts the most – where our Iraqi allies told us to focus when they said “Kill them – not us”.
The Supreme Leader has to be thinking, if US President Donald Trump is willing to target my top general, the man who was responsible for spreading the revolution across the Islamic world – who or what is he willing to target next?

After Soleimani: Three scenarios that could happen next
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 04/2020
After mutual escalations between the US and Iran in the Iraqi arena, the most severe blow came with the US drone strike early on Friday that killed Qassem Soleimani.
In the days and hours leading up to the strike, the tit-for-tat violence had been mounting. Iran’s militias killed a US contractor in a rocket attack on a military base. The US responded with airstrikes on militia bases, killing at least 25. Then protesters stormed the US Embassy in Baghdad, leaving graffiti on the walls boasting that Soleimani himself had orchestrated the attack.
“Iran will be held fully responsible for lives lost, or damage incurred, at any of our facilities,” US resident Donald Trump warned. Ayatollay Ali Khamenei publicly mocked the president with the response: “You can’t do anything.” Friday’s drone strike proved how wrong Khamenei was.
The initial reaction in Tehran was one of shock, quickly followed by blind rage, and then threats of revenge against Washington.
In Iraq, some declared the drone strike that killed Soleimani to be a flagrant violation of Iraq’s territorial integrity and a breach of its sovereignty. That argument was swiftly demolished by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who pointed out that the US operation was a pre-emptive action to thwart a planned Iranian terrorist attack on US interests in Iraq, and that the US military presence there was at the invitation of the Iraqi government. Qassem Soleimani and other leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, along with the local affiliates of Hezbollah in Lebanon — all designated as terrorists — entered Iraq without the government’s knowledge, but with the assistance of militias loyal to Iran. Thus, Pompeo said, it was they and not the US who were violating Iraqi sovereignty.
The most urgent question now is related to the possible future scenarios in the context of the current escalation between Iran and the US. First, much depends on Tehran’s assessment of the crisis, its available options, and the capacity that Iran possesses in light of the internal political and economic crises it is facing. If Iran is serious with its threats of revenge, we are heading for a massive Iranian response targeting the US presence in the region; military bases in the Gulf, the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, or the US bases in Iraq at least. This option, which I believe is highly unlikely, would trigger a US reaction that could result in the Iranian regime’s military capabilities and infrastructure being completely destroyed.
Theoretical forecasts aside, it is clear that the post-Soleimani era will be vastly different from what has gone before. The loss of such an effective strategist will be felt by the Iranian regime, given his role as the backbone of its expansionist regional project and the mastermind and primary architect of all its overseas operations.
In a second scenario, the regime in Tehran would continue with its previous strategy, based on asymmetrical warfare, dealing calculated blows to the interests of US allies in the region. However, this option is likely to be deemed insufficient by the Iranian leadership and its loyalists, because it would not compensate for the losses that Iran and its proxies in the region have incurred. If the regime decides to go ahead with this option, it would probably consist of relatively small-scale operations that the Iranian propaganda machine and its supporters would aim to exaggerate to save the regime’s face at home and abroad.
A third possible scenario is that the Iranian regime takes its time in responding to the US operation and reserves its response for an appropriate time and place — as it has done when Israel targeted its forces, proxy militias or bases in Syria and Lebanon.
This would allow Iran’s regime to keep the door open until it seizes the appropriate opportunity to target any senior US military official as part of its revenge for the killing of Qassem Soleimani. In other words, Iran will attempt to avoid an escalation that could increase its losses and undermine its stature domestically, and regionally among its proxies. Pursuing this course of action might prompt Tehran to reverse its course, fearing an inability to protect its militias, lifting its protection umbrella over its proxies in Syria, Yemen, and other regional warzones.
Theoretical forecasts aside, it is clear that the post-Soleimani era will be vastly different from what has gone before. The loss of such an effective strategist will be felt by the Iranian regime, given his role as the backbone of its expansionist regional project and the mastermind and primary architect of all its overseas operations. Soleimani also personally supervised the establishment of Iran’s proxy militias and organized their recruitment, training, and funding, as well as overseeing operations in support of the Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.
The selection of Soleimani’s deputy, Ismail Qaani, to replace him as head of the Quds Force is simply a hierarchal military promotion rather than a tactical move on the regime’s part. Qaani has no outstanding record of military achievements to match Soleimani’s on the Syrian, Iraqi and Lebanese fronts, and lacks his predecessor’s vast experience.
It therefore seems likely that the Quds Force will now decline after its regional rampage of terror, slaughter and destruction reached a peak under Soleimani, a deterioration likely to adversely affect the future of the Iranian regime’s regional expansionist project, whatever Iranian leaders’ say to maintain their legitimacy at home and abroad.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami

Iran Retains Its Ability to Launch Terror Attacks Despite Assassination
Matthew Levitt/The National/January 04/2020
Soleimani had multiple deputies with years of experience, and the Iranian security establishment has a tradition of rewarding brazen initiative.
Qassem Suleimani was the Prince of Iranian Terrorism. To the end, he remained very close to the Supreme Leader and ran an effective “Shia Foreign Legion” of Iran’s own creation that employed militants from Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen and beyond. Indeed, U.S. authorities say the decision to kill Suleimani was the result of unique intelligence revealing he was travelling the region co-ordinating an imminent set of attacks targeting Americans in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere in the region. If ever there was a case that removing one man could have a truly detrimental effect on an organisation, this would be it.
But despite the loss of such a dominating presence, the Quds Force that he headed remains a large and professional organisation. He had multiple deputies with years of experience. The Quds Force and its proxies, notably Hezbollah, will continue to pose a very capable operational threat—he was not the one personally pressing the detonator. The United States could face a more direct threat from these groups as a result of the successful U.S. airstrike against Mr. Suleimani in Baghdad, even though the most likely short-term response will be in the region and include turning up the heat in Iraq.
The intelligence assessment has been that Iran and its proxies would not carry out attacks within the U.S. unless it was seen to be doing something directly against Iran. The assassination of Qassem Suleimani would certainly fit into that category.
A case in New York City underscores the potential for a terrorist reprisal attack by Iranian proxies. Ali Kourani, a Lebanese immigrant to the United States, was convicted of secretly leading a sleeper cell for the Islamic Jihad Organisation (IJO), the Hezbollah wing responsible for offensive operations outside of Lebanon. Kourani, who in December was jailed for 40 years, said he would most likely be called on to launch an attack if the U.S. took some kind of action against Iran, Hezbollah or its leaders. Following the arrest of Kourani, the director of the U.S. National Counter Terrorism Centre, Nicholas Rasmussen, told reporters in October 2017 that Hezbollah was “determined to give itself a potential homeland option as a critical component of its terrorism playbook.” “This is something that those of us in the counter-terrorism community take very, very seriously," he added.
Two other men allegedly connected to the IJO have been arrested in the New York area, but have yet to be tried. Although the pair and Kourani were based in the United States, they were involved in activities all around the world, demonstrating the global reach of the organisation. Two other Iranians pleaded guilty in November last year to spying on dissidents from the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) in New York and Washington. They also carried out a surveillance operation of Jewish institutions in Chicago.
One of the reasons why the threat of an Iranian-backed attack does not necessarily diminish with the death of the Quds Force head is that the Iranian security establishment has a tradition of rewarding even brazen initiative. This was one of the potential explanations for an attempted plot in 2011 to assassinate the then Saudi ambassador to the United Nations, Adel Al Jubeir, which was only thwarted by good fortune.
Tehran has for decades been dispatching operatives to Europe to carry out assassinations of opponents to the regime and other acts of terrorism. An Iranian diplomat based in Vienna is awaiting trial in Belgium over an apparent attempt to bomb an NCRI rally in Paris. The gathering was attended by Donald Trump’s lawyer Rudolph Giuliani and the former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. It was just another example demonstrating how active Iranian intelligence operatives have been on the continent.
But there is also a message about what the deterrent effect will be for those charged with carrying out attacks outside of Iran. Many there thought that Mr. Suleimani was untouchable. It was previously reported that the U.S. and its allies had him in their sights on several occasions and decided not to take action. His death now is testament to U.S. intelligence and military prowess and sends the message that nobody is safe from potential attack. When you’re looking over your shoulder all the time—and you know you’re not untouchable—it affects your ability to operate.
*Matthew Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Fellow and director of the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute. This article was originally published on the National website.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Responds to the Soleimani Assassination
Mehdi Khalaji/The Washington Institute//January 05/2020
Khamenei and other regime officials have been quick to swear revenge, but for now they may focus more on stoking patriotic and militaristic sentiment at home.
A few hours after Iran confirmed that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani had been killed in Iraq, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a statement describing those who shed his blood as “the most wretched of humankind.” Calling Soleimani the international symbol of “resistance,” he then announced three days of public mourning in Iran. He also declared that “severe revenge awaits the criminals” who killed Soleimani—an act that the United States had claimed credit for by the time he spoke. Other high-ranking officials echoed this sentiment, including President Hassan Rouhani, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, and Defense Minister Amir Hatami, who explicitly promised “revenge” on “all those” involved in the assassination.
Despite this rhetoric, however, and despite Soleimani’s unmatched role in carrying out Iran’s regional policy of adventurism and asymmetric warfare, the regime may avoid major, immediate retaliation if it sees such a move as too costly or as a potential trigger for serious military conflict with the United States. On January 1, amid escalating tensions in Iraq but before Soleimani’s assassination, Khamenei stated, “We would not take the country to war...but if others want to impose something on this country, we will stand before them forcefully.” In response to President Trump’s assertion that Iran played a role in the December 31 riot at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, Khamenei told listeners he had two messages for Washington: “First, how dare you! This has nothing to do with Iran. Second, you should be reasonable and understand what is the main cause for these problems. But of course they are not [reasonable].”
In the coming days, the regime will likely devote most of its attention to organizing massive funeral services and mourning ceremonies for Soleimani. After all, state propaganda has portrayed the commander as a national hero for the past decade, touting his efforts to defend the country against the Islamic State and other dangerous enemies. It has also highlighted his role abroad in order to underscore that “resistance” is more effective than negotiations in dealing with threats originating from the United States—the regime’s way of downplaying President Rouhani’s diplomatic efforts and foreign policy achievements on the nuclear deal and other matters. Other past tributes to Soleimani include printing a stamp with his picture, broadcasting hundreds of hours of television and radio programs glorifying his personality and sacrifices, and having the IRGC-affiliated production company Moj release a movie about him.
Given this long pattern of exalting Soleimani, his mourning period will probably be second only to the late Ruhollah Khomeini’s in scope. An overwhelming celebration could benefit the regime by diverting public attention from recent domestic crises—most crucially, the November gasoline protests and the regime’s subsequent crackdown, whose violent consequences are still being suffered and mourned by many Iranians. This would be in keeping with the state’s past use of Soleimani as a symbol for arousing patriotic sentiments among those strata of society who are losing their commitment to Khamenei’s Islamic ideology and/or their respect for the regime’s legitimacy.
Indeed, a carefully fabricated and militaristic version of patriotism may have become the regime’s strongest tool for mobilization, compensating for the diminished appeal of its Islamist underpinnings. For instance, Mahmoud Dowlatabadi—a well-known Iranian novelist who is regarded as a leftist, secular, even anti-regime intellectual with no record of supporting the state—reflected this sentiment in an August 2015 interview with Mehr Nameh monthly, where he expressed admiration for Soleimani and insisted on the vital need to support his forces and the military in general given how they have “protected the country.” Similarly, right after the news broke about Soleimani’s death, regime supporters and officials such as Information Minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi began using the Farsi phrase “all together” as a hashtag in relevant Twitter posts, attempting to give the impression that all Iranians are mourning him regardless of their political views.
In theory, such propaganda and exaggerated mourning could further the regime’s efforts to reshape domestic opinion in several ways. First, it might help officials justify pursuing an even more aggressive regional policy. Second, the IRGC may try to restore its image from oppressor of nonviolent protest and civil society to protector of the nation—with the implication that it deserves respect from citizens regardless of their ideology or views on the regime’s legitimacy. Third, unified mourning for Soleimani could reinforce the notion that the government’s various factions agree on the regime’s aggressive foreign policy approach—a useful way to hide political infighting and accelerating disintegration among the regime elite ahead of next month’s planned parliamentary election.
Whatever the regime’s objectives, not all Iranians will react to Soleimani’s death by mourning. In fact, some citizens have already celebrated his death on social media. Propaganda aside, the truth is that many Iranians had begun to view him as a symbol of the regime’s failed regional policy rather than a national hero—especially after protestors in Iraq were seen shouting anti-Iran slogans late last year, and Soleimani began helping Iraqi forces crack down on the movement in an unsuccessful bid to control public anger. Moreover, the IRGC has long proclaimed that it has “full intelligence mastery” in Iraq, so its failure to save such an important commander from assassination there could be seen as an embarrassment among Iranians and Iraqis alike.
Regardless of domestic reactions, one cannot rule out the possibility that the regime might exploit mourning ceremonies as a tactical military tool abroad. For instance, according to Iranian news agencies, tomorrow’s service in Tehran will be preceded by funeral marches in the Iraqi holy cities of Karbala and Najaf “in response to the Iraqi people’s demand.” More important, Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces militia network reportedly announced a funeral march for the “martyr leaders” that will begin at the International Zone in Baghdad, home to the U.S. embassy and other foreign diplomatic facilities. The latter event holds significant potential for escalating clashes involving U.S., Iraqi, and Iranian proxy forces.
As for Soleimani’s successor, the Supreme Leader has selected Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghani as the new commander of the Qods Force. In his appointment letter, Khamenei stated that the force’s mandate “is the same as it was under the commandership of martyr Soleimani.” Prior to his promotion, Ghani served as Soleimani’s second-in-command, former deputy of intelligence at the IRGC Joint Staff, and a veteran commander of the Iran-Iraq War.
*Mehdi Khalaji is the Libitzky Family Fellow at The Washington Institute.