LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 21.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
If anyone desires to come after me, let him deny himself, take up his cross, and follow me
Luke 09/23-27/:”23 He said to all, “If anyone desires to come after me, let him deny himself, take up his cross, and follow me. For whoever desires to save his life will lose it, but whoever will lose his life for my sake, will save it. For what does it profit a man if he gains the whole world, and loses or forfeits his own self? For whoever will be ashamed of me and of my words, of him will the Son of Man be ashamed, when he comes in his glory, and the glory of the Father, and of the holy angels. But I tell you the truth: There are some of those who stand here who will in no way taste of death until they see God’s Kingdom.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 20-21/2020
UNIFIL head chairs Tripartite meeting
Aoun discusses financial, economic conditions with Head of Association of Banks
Berri meets Kubis, Cuban ambassador
Diab Tells Cabinet Protest Movement Must Take Part in Ministerial Panels
Report: France 'Stands Beside' Lebanon to Overcome Crisis
Lebanese Protest against Hike in Goods Prices
SGBL Denies Making Transfers for Politicians, Shareholders after October 17
Akar talks general situation with US Ambassador
Army chief meets US Senate Armed Services Committee delegation
Hariri arrives in Abu Dhabi
Interior Minister talks overall situation with Daher, Boustani
House Finance Committee meets in second session on Eurobond dues' feasible solutions
Indian Ambassador from Tripoli: Democracy can only be saved through non-violence
Captain of Lebanese Ship Held in Probe of Libya Arms Trafficking
Tensions as PSP Supporters Confront FPM Demo outside Central Bank
Hariri in UAE for Talks with Emirati Officials
Jumblat Receives 'Solidarity' Call from Hariri, Urges Calm after Hamra Standoff
IMF delegation holds talks on Lebanon’s economic crisis
Greek FM Discusses in Beirut How Athens Dealt with its Economic Crisis
Lebanon: 785 Restaurants, Cafes Closed, 25,000 Employees Laid Off
Beirut airport exchange rate rises for third time
Lebanon’s President Aoun vows accountability over financial crisis:
Prosecutors further investigate Ghosn’s Versailles palace party, other finances
'Boycott them or they will come': Hezbollah supporters dress as 'Orthodox Jews' in anti-Semitic stunt
Lebanon Is Seeking IMF Advice to Exit From Its Financial Crisis, but Can It Avoid a Full Bailout?/Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/February 20/2020
‘Social explosion’ in Lebanese camps imminent, warn officials/Najia Houssari/Arab News/February 21/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 20-21/2020
At Least Nine Killed in Germany Shisha Bar Shootings
UK Police Rule Out Terror in London Mosque Stabbing
US sanctions five Iranian officials for obstructing ‘free and fair’ elections
Pompeo Meets U.S. Troops in Saudi Visit Focused on Iran
Iran’s Khamenei tightens grip on parliamentary elections, low turnout expected
Jubeir Says No Back Channels With Iran
Saudi-US Naval Exercise to Kick Off in Eastern Province
Turkey, Russia, Iran will meet to discuss Syria’s Idlib: Turkish official
Russia urges Turkey to stop ‘supporting terrorists’ in Syria
Syrian govt air strikes kill two Turkish soldiers: Turkey
Ongoing clashes in Syria’s Idlib province leave 27 fighters dead: War monitor
Ankara will activate Russian S-400 missile systems: Turkish defense minister
Israel, Palestinians End Trade Dispute
Israel Targets Jihad Squad, Eases Gaza Restrictions
Washington welcomes South Sudan deal on unity government
South Sudan's rival leaders Kiir, Machar to form unity government

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 20-21/2020
Drain Society, Feed the Military/Muhsen Al-Mustafa/ Carnegie MEC/February 20/2020
Le " séparatisme islamiste " et les défis de la démocratie occidentale/Charles Elias Chartouni/February 20/2020
Leftists, Islamists, and Us/Martha Lee/Causeur/W.Islamist Watch/February 20/2020
The Real Winners of the Afghan Election: The Taliban/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/February 20/2020
Greek Islanders Want Their Life Back/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/February 20/2020
Iranian Expansion Reaches Countries of Central Asia/Huda al-Husseini/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 20/2020
The EU Can’t Widen and Deepen at the Same Time/Andreas Kluth/Bloomberg/February 20/2020
Iranian smoke and Palestinian mirrors/Alex Fishman/Ynetnews/February 20/2020
Reformist-Hardline Rivalries Dull Iran’s Parliament Elections/Banafsheh Keynoush/The Washington Institute/February 20/2020
Iranians’ desire for true democracy should be supported/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/February 20/2020
Key energy players take advantage of IEF forum/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/February 20/2020
Skepticism surrounds imminent US-Taliban peace deal/Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/February 20/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 20-21/2020
UNIFIL head chairs Tripartite meeting
NNA/February 20/2020
UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General Stefano Del Col today chaired a Tripartite meeting at the UN position in Ras Al Naqoura. In a press release by UNIFIL, it siad: "Discussions focused on the situation along the Blue Line, air and ground violations as well as other issues within the scope of UNIFIL's mandate under UN Security Council resolution 1701. Major General Del Col said: "I appreciate the positive engagement of the parties with UNIFIL that has enabled continued stability along the Blue Line in a volatile regional context." And he added: "I call on the parties to further utilise UNIFIL's tripartite and liaison mechanisms to address issues and concerns in order to minimize the scope for any misunderstandings that could cause tensions or incidents." He reiterated his call to the parties to provide UNIFIL with sufficient prior notification of all planned activities along the Blue Line. Tripartite meetings have been held regularly under the auspices of UNIFIL since the end of the 2006 war in south Lebanon as an essential conflict management and confidence building mechanism."

Aoun discusses financial, economic conditions with Head of Association of Banks
NNA/February 20/2020
Pesident of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, discussed the financial and economic conditions with the Head of the Banks’ Association, Dr. Salim Sfeir, this afternoon at Baabda Palace.
Former Minister, Salim Jreisatti, General Director of the Lebanese Presidency, Dr. Antoine Choucair, and Dr. Sfeir’s advisor, Mr. Antoine Habib, attended the meeting. After the meeting, Dr. Sfeir stated that “The discussion with the President focused on the Eurobond issue, and its deadline next month. We have stressed the need to accelerate work on one of the proposed solutions, so the continuous decline in the price of bonds in global markets is holding losses for Lebanese banks, which applies pressure on them. We also wished President Aoun to technically tackle the issue of bonds, far from politics and street pressure, so we must watch over the interest of Lebanon, of course, but also about the integrity and reputation of the banking sector, and depositors’ money in the event that a decision is taken in an irregular manner”.
“We discussed the possibility of reaching a non-confrontational solution with international creditors, and in an organized manner, especially as investment funds abroad were ready for negotiation. The unified goal of President Aoun and PM Diab, and the Association of Banks, is to emerge from this crisis with the least possible damage and in what represents the best picture for Lebanon” Sfeir said. On the other hand, President Aoun also met with the Lebanese Ambassador to Washington, Gaby Issa, and discussed with him the Lebanese-US relations, and means of developing these relations, in multiple fields.

Berri meets Kubis, Cuban ambassador
NNA/February 20/2020
Speaker of the House, Nabih Berri, received in Ain El-Tineh the Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General in Lebanon, Jan Kubis, with whom he tackled the general situation in the country, with emphasis on the present financial and economic conditions. Berri then reviewed with Cuban Ambassador, Alexander Moraga, the means to bolster bilateral relations.

Diab Tells Cabinet Protest Movement Must Take Part in Ministerial Panels
Naharnet/February 20/2020
President Michel Aoun said Thursday that “measures will be taken to pinpoint every person’s responsibility, especially as to the transfer of sums of money in an illegal manner that aggravated the severity of the crisis.”Aoun was speaking at the beginning of the weekly Cabinet session in Baabda. Prime Minister Hassan Diab for his part said the government has started “the first step towards addressing the accumulations of 30 years of wrong policies which plunged the country into the current collapse.”He also stressed that “figures from the popular protest movement must be added to the (ministerial) committees, each according to their expertise.”Hoping that the meetings with the IMF will lead to results that "will help the country on the financial, social, economic and living conditions levels," Diab said public debt has "hemorrhaged state funds" and added that corruption and overspending have also emptied state coffers. Information Minister Manal Abdul Samad meanwhile told reporters that the issue of paying the due Eurobonds “was not discussed today,” adding that “it is being tackled by the specialized committees.”
The Cabinet also decided to “devise a mechanism to implement the content of the Policy Statement according to a roadmap that has already been approved,” the minister said.

Report: France 'Stands Beside' Lebanon to Overcome Crisis
Naharnet/February 20/2020
France reportedly plans to “increase its presence” in crisis-hit Lebanon to help it overcome its economic crisis, as the debt-ridden country seeks assistance to rescue its moribund economy, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Thursday. In the past few day, senior Lebanese officials received assurances in that regard, said the daily, which they summarized as follows:
- Lebanon’s stability and its ability to overcome the economic and financial crisis is a top priority for France.
- Paris, like all members of the Support Group for Lebanon, is committed to the decisions of the CEDRE Conference with the same momentum it showed on the day of the conference in 2018. France still insists that Lebanon takes this opportunity, which it believes helps the country overcome its crisis.
- Paris supports the government of PM Hassan Diab and is therefore satisfied with the government’s performance and activity to find solutions to the crisis.
-The international community links assistance for Lebanon to its ability to implement much-needed reforms, and France finds it necessary that Lebanon expedites their implementation.
-Because France realizes the magnitude of the crisis in Lebanon, it supports the latter’s decisions if it agrees on restructuring its Eurobond debts.

Lebanese Protest against Hike in Goods Prices
Naharnet/February 20/2020
Lebanese protesters rallied on Thursday outside headquarters of the economy ministry in Downtown Beirut to protest against uncontrolled hike in prices of consumer goods. Demonstrators said the ministry must activate its role and monitor prices of goods amid a crippling financial and economic crisis that left many unemployed. General Director of Economy and Trade at the Ministry of Economy, Alia Abbas, spoke to protesters assuring them that the Consumer Protection Authority operates with “transparency and its doors are open to all.” Abbas said judicial authorities were asked to take appropriate measures against “greedy” merchants, even if it meant closing down their businesses. She assured that ministry inspectors “are doing their job.”She urged all Lebanese to join efforts and cooperate with the ministry by filing complaints against shops and supermarkets manipulating prices of goods.
But the protesters said the ministry’s efforts were “insufficient,” and called for tighter measures. Lebanon has been suffering from slow growth, high unemployment and decades of widespread corruption and mismanagement that have triggered nationwide protests against the political elite since mid-October.
The local currency has lost nearly 60% of its value on the black market. Lebanon also has a massive debt, standing at $87 billion — 150% more than the country's GDP. Amid a severe liquidity crunch, banks have imposed informal capital controls, limiting withdrawals to a few hundred dollars a month. The country's economy has depended heavily on the U.S. dollars since the country's 15-year civil war ended in 1990.

SGBL Denies Making Transfers for Politicians, Shareholders after October 17
Naharnet/February 20/2020
Lebanon’s SGBL bank on Thursday denied as “totally baseless” media reports claiming that politicians and shareholders had made transfers through the bank to foreign financial institutions in the wake of the October 17 uprising.
In a press release, the bank stressed that it is “committed to the resolution issued by (the central bank’s) Special Investigation Commission on January 9, 2020 and the request for information that was issued by the aforementioned commission following its first resolution.”“They clearly demonstrate that the circulated reports are totally fabricated and false, which subjects the media outlet concerned, the article’s writer and the director in charge to legal prosecution,” SGBL added. “Societe Generale de Banque au Liban S.A.L. will resort to the competent judicial authorities, especially criminal courts, to preserve its rights and reputation,” the bank warned.

Akar talks general situation with US Ambassador
NNA/February 20/2020
Vice Prime Minister, National Defense Minister Zeina Akar Adra, on Thursday welcomed in her office at the Ministry US Ambassador to Lebanon, Elizabeth Richard, who came on a farewell visit, upon the end of her term of office in Lebanon. Ambassador Richard congratulated Minister Akar on her assumption of her ministerial duties. Talks reportedly touched on the general situation in Lebanon and the broad region. Minister Akar also received State Security Director General, Major General Tony Saliba, who congratulated her on her ministerial post. Discussions reportedly covered means of coordination between the military institution and the security agencies.

Army chief meets US Senate Armed Services Committee delegation
NNA/February 20/2020
Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, on Thursday received at his Yarzeh office a delegation of the US senate Armed Services Committee, headed by Jonathan Lord, accompanied by US Ambassador to Lebanon, EElizabeth Richard. Talks reportedly touched on the general situation in Lebanon and the broad region, in addition to cooperation relations between the armies of both countries.

Hariri arrives in Abu Dhabi
NNA/February 20/2020
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri arrived this evening to Abu Dhabi, accompanied by former Minister Ghattas Khoury. He was greateded at the airport by the Emirati Minister Mohamad Khalifa Mubarak and the Lebanese Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates Fouad Dandan.
During the two-day visit, Hariri will meet with Emirati officials.

Interior Minister talks overall situation with Daher, Boustani
NNA/February 20/2020
Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Mohamed Fahmi, on Thursday received in his office at the Ministry MP Michel Daher, with whom he discussed the country's general situation and developmental affairs related to the district of west Bekaa. Talks also covered the current monetary and financial situation.
Minister Fahmi also met with former Minister Naji Al Boustani, with the most recent political developments on the local arena featuring high on their talks.

House Finance Committee meets in second session on Eurobond dues' feasible solutions
NNA/February 20/2020
The Finance and Budget Committee held its second session this afternoon, chaired by MP Ibrahim Kanaan, to discuss feasible solutions for Eurobond dues. The meeting was attended by Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni, Chairman of the Association of Banks of Lebanon (ABL) Salim Sfeir, and Central Bank's representatives.

Indian Ambassador from Tripoli: Democracy can only be saved through non-violence
NNA/February 20/2020
Elite Center for Culture and Education in Tripoli on Thursday welcomed Ambassador of India to Lebanon, Dr. Suhel Ajaz Khan, in a cultural meeting on Mahatma Gandhi and an exhibition in cooperation with the Association of Lebanese Artists, Painters and Sculptors (LAAPS).
The following is the Indian Ambassador’s speech:
“It’s a great pleasure for me to be addressing this gathering today in Tripoli the second biggest and a very historic city in Lebanon. I also wish to thank Mrs. Aiman Kamli an active member of ADLIR i.e. Association for Development of India Lebanon Relations and the Elite Center for organizing this Seminar and Exhibition.
Friends ,
As you all must be aware Indian constitution is the biggest Constitution in the World. Constitution of India grants India a democratic form of Government based on adult franchise. The Constitution also grants citizens of India certain Fundamental Rights and also lists certain Fundamental duties the Country expects from its Citizens. The Constitutions also lists what we call Directive Principles of State Policies. These Directive Principles which are considered fundamental in governance of the Country ensures that the State and the Government shall strive to promote the welfare of the people by securing a social order in which social, economic and political justice is animated/informed in all institutions of life per as per Article 38 of the Indian Constitution.
There a a number of provision and article of the Indian Constitution which are heavily influenced by Gandhian Philosophy.
Mahatma Gandhi , as you all know , was one of the greatest personalities of 20th Century. He is referred to as Mahatma, meaning a “great soul. He led the civil rights movement in South Africa against the apartheid regime and later led Indian’s independence movement against British colonial rule in complete non-violent manner. He showed us the path of non-violence and truth and gave us instrument of Non-cooperation and Satyagrah i.e. quest for truth. He always stood for intercultural understanding and peaceful coexistence.
According to Mahatma Gandhi, democracy can only be saved through non-violence because ‘democracy, so long as it is sustained by violence, cannot provide for or protect the weak’. "My notion of democracy is that under it the weakest should have the same opportunity as the strongest. That can never happen through violence." said Mahatma Gandhi. In order to root out exploitation, therefore, a non-violent society or state has to be established. Such a society, of necessity, must be based on economic freedom and equality, because without economic equity there can exist no real political democracy. Gandhi, advocated such decentralisation of economic and political power in the form of, more or less, self-sufficient and self-governing village communities. He regards such communities as the models of non-violent organisation.
Gandhi, therefore, was of the definite opinion that the future Constitution of India should be based on the organization of well-knit and coordinated village communities with their positive and direct democracy, non-violent cottage economy and human contacts. "That state will be the best," declared Gandhi, "which is governed the least."
The concept of equality enshrined in Constitution of India is also based on Gandhian philosphy. "So long as a person ,whether man or women, is oppressed and does not enjoy equal rights with other citizens of the country , we cannot enjoy the freedom", Gandhi once said. Gandhiji's doctrine of equality was a corollary of his belief in the spiritual essence of all human beings-men and women. He was opposed to any form of discrimination and was strongly opposed to the practice of untouchability. "We have to realize equality in the midst of apparent external reality. Assumption of superiority by any person over any other is a sin against God and man" said Gandhi.
Gandhi also stood for the most downtrodden in the Society .He used to tell that when in doubt about ones actions, one must think of the poorest person one has seen and should consider how his action will impact that poorest person. In case that action is beneficial for him than the action is correct. This philosophy of Mahatma Gandhi for a governance structure which benefits the most downtrodden in the Society also is reflected well in the Indian Constitutions in terms of affirmative actions and a strive for a socialist and welfare society.
Apart from these general principles, there are specific articles in the Indian constitution which reflects various facets of Gandhian Philosophy like Articles 40, 43, 45, 46, 47 of Indian constitution . I would like to give you a brief introduction to these articles:
Article 40: Organisation of village Panchayats or local Self Bodies : The type of decentralised democracy that India had carefully evolved and maintained for centuries in the form of Village Republics was not a relic and survival of tribal communism; it was a product of mature thought and serious experimentation. The kind of local self-government that our country had developed in her numberless Village Communities stood the test of centuries of political storms and is still capable of being organised into an ideal form of democratic administration, i.e, Village Panchayats.
Article 43: To promote cottage industries: Decentralised cottage industrialism shows the way. The Indian village communes had evolved a well-balanced economic system by eschewing the two extremes of laissez faire and totalitarian control. After serious experimentation they had discovered a golden and happy mean between capitalism and socialism. They had developed an ideal form of cooperative agriculture and industry, in which there was scarcely any scope for exploitation of the poor by the rich. As Gandhiji put it, production was almost simultaneous with consumption and distribution. Commodities manufactured in cottages and domestic factories were for immediate use and not for distant markets. Such small scale and localised production on a self-sufficiency basis automatically eliminated capitalist exploitation. It virtually established economic equality without either ruthlessly curtailing individual liberty or allowing a few individuals to boss over others. Needless to mention that, according to Gandhian ideals, the decentralised cottage industries should be organised on a cooperative and not capitalistic basis.
Article 45: The state shall endeavour to provide early childhood care and education for all children until they complete the age of six years.
Article 46: Promotion of education and economic interests of scheduled castes, scheduled tribes and other weaker sections of the Society.
Article 47: to bring about the prohibition of intoxicating drinks and drugs that are injurious to health.
Gandhi also believed in self control and ones duty towards the Country and the society. He used to say, "Let each do his duty, If I do my duty, that is, serve myself, I shall be able to serve others”. His idea was that all individual rights flow from one's duties. This aspect of Gandhian Philosophy is reflected in the Fundamental duties section of the Indian Constitution. The Fundamental duties have been incorporated in the constitution to remind every citizen that they should not only be conscious of their rights but also of their duties. Following are the Fundamental Duties under the Constitution of India:
a) to abide by the Constitution and respect its ideals and institutions, the National Flag and the National Anthem;
b) to cherish and follow the noble ideals which inspired our national struggle for freedom;
c) to uphold and protect the sovereignty, unity and integrity of India;
d) to defend the country and render national service when called upon to do so;
e) to promote harmony and the spirit of common brotherhood amongst all the people of India transcending religious, linguistic and regional or sectional diversities; to renounce practices derogatory to the dignity of women;
f) to value and preserve the rich heritage of our composite culture;
g) to protect and improve the natural environment including forests, lakes, rivers and wild life, and to have compassion for living creatures;
h) to develop the scientific temper, humanism and the spirit of inquiry and reform;
i) to safeguard public property and to abjure violence;
j) to strive towards excellence in all spheres of individual and collective activity so that the nation constantly rises to higher levels of endeavour and achievement.
k) who is a parent or guardian to provide opportunities for education to his child or, as the case may be, ward between the age of six and fourteen years.
Friends,
In the end I wish to say that Mahatma Gandhi and his teachings are relevant today even more than what they were during his times because we see violence , exploitation and disparities everywhere. I know there is a great goodwill and respect for Gandhian Philosophy in Lebanon and I hope we will all be able to follow Gandhiji's teachings in our lives.”

Captain of Lebanese Ship Held in Probe of Libya Arms Trafficking
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 20/2020
Authorities in northern Italy arrested the captain of a Lebanese-flagged cargo ship on suspicion of international arms trafficking Wednesday while they investigate if the vessel transported tanks, rockets and other weapons from Turkey to Libya. The captain is under investigation for allegedly transferring military goods to Libya with as-yet unidentified Turkish military officials in violation of a United Nations arms embargo, Italian prosecutor Franceso Pinto told The Associated Press. Italian authorities launched their probe based on allegations a crew member made after the cargo ship arrived in the port city of Genoa earlier this month. The cargo ship, the Bana, turned up on the radar of French authorities not long before it reached Genoa on Feb. 2. The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle shadowed the vessel in late January. The Lebanese crew member who blew the whistle in Italy alleged that tanks and other vehicles that could be used for military purposes were loaded onto the Bana at a Turkish port and then transported to Tripoli, the Libyan capital.
The sailor, who told Italian border police he was seeking political asylum, said the Bana allegedly sailed without cargo from Libya to Genoa. The 40-year--old ship's hold is designed to carry vehicles.
According to a report in Genoa daily newspaper Il Secolo XIX, the asylum-seeking sailor alleged that some 10 Turkish agents, including military officials, traveled on the cargo ship from Mersin, Turkey, to Tripoli, staying in the hold near armored vehicles. Pinto told the AP the sailor provided photographs showing vehicles in the ship's hold and that his application for political asylum in Italy is under consideration.
"He contends he discovered this trafficking" of arms, the prosecutor said.
If true, the alleged actions would violate the U.N. embargo aimed in part at ending nine years of fighting between rival factions seeking to control energy-rich Libya. It's not just the sailor's allegations that aroused suspicions about the cargo ship. Earlier in the week, a French military official, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the issue, said the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier on Jan. 29 spotted a Turkish frigate off the Libyan coast escorting the Bana, which made a stop in Tripoli's port. French fighter jets from the aircraft carrier spotted a delivery while on a reconnaissance mission, French newspaper Le Monde reported. The Charles de Gaulle was in the area as part of a U.S.-led operation against the Islamic State group. Pinto told the AP the Bana's transponders were turned off after it left the Turkish port and crossed the water to Libya. Investigators in Italy hope that analyzing equipment from the ship, including the cellphones of crew members, would help verify the Bana's route.
Italy, in an effort to regain influence as a geopolitical player in Libya, has campaigned for vigorous monitoring and enforcement of the international arms embargo imposed on its former colony in northern Africa. The Italian government has not made any public statements about the Bana investigation. Rival forces control different parts of Libya. The U.N.-recognized government of Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj is based in the west and seated in Tripoli. Forces based in the east and led by a powerful general, Khalifa Hifter, have been engaged in an offensive to take Tripoli for nearly a year.
Both of the rival Libyan governments have enjoyed diplomatic and other forms of support from a host of countries. France, for example, a rival of Italy's in pursuing energy interests in oil-and-natural-gas rich Libya, sided with Hifter for a long time. The Turkish government recently ratcheted up its backing of Sarraj's government, promising military support and sending to Libya hundreds of Syrian fighters. The Syrians included militants affiliated with al-Qaida and the Islamic State group.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday that Turkey would continue aiding Sarraj's government to "establish dominance" over all of Libya. Neither Turkey's Foreign Ministry nor the country's military responded to requests for comment on the whistle-blower's allegations or the Italian investigation. In an interview with the AP last week, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said his country was doing all it could to ensure an agreement on respecting the arms embargo is put into practice. The deal was reached last month at a Berlin conference on Libya.  A spokesman for Serraj's office didn't reply to phone calls and text messages from the AP on Wednesday seeking comment about the Bana investigation.
The cargo ship's Lebanese owner, Merhi Abou Merhi, denied media reports in recent weeks that the Bana was used to transport armored vehicles to Libya. He said the vessel usually takes cars between Lebanon and Libya.
He has not hasn't responded to an AP request for an interview. There was no immediate comment from Lebanese authorities in Beirut. The United States accused Abou Mehri in 2015 of laundering money for Hizbullah, but removed him from its list of sanctioned individuals in 2017. He consistently denied the money-laundering allegations. The Bana remains idled in Genoa's port, where it was supposed to take on a cargo of cars from European Union countries that were to be delivered to Misrata, Libya, prosecutor Pinto said. Pinto said the whistle-blower sailor was on his first voyage on the Bana but told authorities that other crew members recounted the cargo ship bringing arms to Tobruk, a city in eastern Libya, on a previous trip. Italian investigators plan to question the crew further. They are also awaiting results from technical analyses of ship equipment before deciding how to proceed.

Tensions as PSP Supporters Confront FPM Demo outside Central Bank
Naharnet/February 20/2020
Angry supporters of the Progressive Socialist Party on Thursday tried to reach a demo held by the Free Patriotic Movement outside the central bank on Beirut's Hamra Street. Army troops and riot police separated between the two groups to prevent any violence. The PSP supporters arrived on the scene of the demo chanting slogans in support of PSP leader Walid Jumblat and carrying flags of their party. FPM supporters meanwhile said PSP elements gathering near Jumblat's residence in Clemenceau attacked some of them physically and verbally and prevented buses carrying demonstrators from reaching the sit-in. Dozens of FPM supporters had earlier managed to reach the sit-in outside the central bank. They were later joined by dozens others whose buses took different routes to avoid friction with the PSP supporters. The rally was organized by the FPM’s anti-corruption committee to demand “the recovery of money smuggled abroad and the unveiling of all facts in this file.”"No leader is a red line, no bank is a red line, the central bank governor is not a red line and no oil cartel is a red line," an FPM official said in a speech at the demo. Another official said further popular protests will be staged in the coming period. Activists from the anti-government protest movement had earlier in the day plastered posters criticizing the FPM’s “schizophrenia” on a wall outside the bank. “How can someone rally against themselves?”, “Who extended Riad Salameh’s term?” and “Are you in power or in the opposition?”, read some of the posters.

Hariri in UAE for Talks with Emirati Officials
Naharnet/February 20/2020
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri arrived Thursday evening in Abu Dhabi on a two-day visit during which he will meet with Emirati officials, his office said. He is accompanied by his adviser, former Minister Ghattas Khoury. Hariri was greeted at the airport by Emirati minister Mohammed Khalifa Mubarak and Lebanese Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates Fouad Dandan.

Jumblat Receives 'Solidarity' Call from Hariri, Urges Calm after Hamra Standoff
Naharnet/February 20/2020
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat has received a phone call from ex-PM Saad Hariri, who “stressed his solidarity and rejection of today’s provocations against the PSP’s supporters,” the PSP said on Thursday. Army troops and riot police had earlier separated between supporters of the PSP and the Free Patriotic Movement near the central bank in Hamra during an FPM-organized demo. “Messages sent via social networking websites led to the tension,” Jumblat told reporters, noting that he had called for calm prior to the demonstration. “But provocations and counter-provocations led to what happened,” Jumblat lamented. Addressing supporters, the PSP leader reassured that he was “not in danger” and that he is “under the protection of the army and the Internal Security Forces. Jumblat’s residence in Clemenceau is only a few hundred meters away from the central bank and rumors had claimed that the FPM supporters intended to rally outside his house. “There is no need for being tense,” Jumblat urged. Asked whether the Presidency was trying to “besiege” him through the demo, Jumblat dismissed the hypothesis and stressed that “no one can eliminate the other.”
“What’s important is to salvage the economic situation through reform and Arab support,” he added. Asked whether there are contacts with the Presidency, Jumblat said there is no communication but said he is willing to show positivity for the sake of the country.

IMF delegation holds talks on Lebanon’s economic crisis
Associated Press/February 20/2020
The IMF experts first held talks in the morning with Prime Minister Hassan
Diab, who after the meeting headed to the presidential palace for a Cabinet session.
BEIRUT: An International Monetary Fund delegation began meetings Thursday in Lebanon to provide advice on dealing with the country’s crippling economic and financial crisis amid concerns the country might default on its Eurobond debt payment for the first time.
Lebanon is going through its worst economic crisis since the 1975-90 civil war. Since then, the country has been marred by widespread corruption and mismanagement in which billions of dollars were spent on infrastructure, which remains mostly dysfunctional.
The IMF experts first held talks in the morning with Prime Minister Hassan Diab, who after the meeting headed to the presidential palace for a Cabinet session. The delegation stayed on at government headquarters for talks with Diab’s advisers and left afterward without speaking to journalists.
The meetings come amid concerns that Lebanon might default for the first time on paying back Eurobonds due next month.
Information Minister Manal Abdul-Samad quoted Diab as saying in the Cabinet meeting that he hopes the meetings with the IMF will lead to results that “will help the country on the financial, social, economic and living conditions levels.”
“We have started today the first step in solving an accumulation of wrong policies adopted over the past 30 years that led the country to the collapse that we are now living,” Diab said, according to Abdul-Samad.
Diab said public debt has “hemorrhaged state funds” and said corruption and overspending have also emptied state coffers.
Diab became prime minister last month after he received backing from the militant Hezbollah group and its allies three months after Western-backed Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned following broad protests against the ruling elite. Earlier this week, IMF Spokesman Gerry Rice said that the team will listen to Lebanese officials’ views on how they plan to face the country’s economic difficulties and provide “broad technical advice” on policies to deal with the challenges facing the economy.
“Lebanon has not requested financial assistance from the IMF,” Rice said.
Lebanese Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni said in comments released by his office that the IMF delegation will discuss what advice it can give regarding a rescue plan that officials are preparing for the country.
Lebanon has been suffering from slow growth, high unemployment and decades of widespread corruption and mismanagement that have triggering nationwide protests against the political elite since mid-October.
The local currency has lost nearly 60% of its value on the black market. Lebanon also has a massive debt, standing at $87 billion — 150% more than the country’s GDP. Amid a severe liquidity crunch, banks have imposed informal capital controls, limiting withdrawals to a few hundred dollars a month. The country’s economy has depended heavily on U.S. dollars since the country’s 15-year civil war ended in 1990.
The chairman of the Association of Banks in Lebanon, Salim Sfeir, met President Michel Aoun on Thursday to discuss paying Eurobonds that mature March 9 worth $1.2 billion. Lebanese officials have been discussing whether to pay on time — as they have always done in the past — or default.
Sfeir said after the meeting a solution must be found quickly because the price of Lebanese Eurobonds is dropping on international markets “making Lebanese banks suffer losses and come under increasing pressure.”
On Wednesday, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri was quoted by a member of his parliamentary bloc as saying that “restructuring the debt is the best solution.”

Greek FM Discusses in Beirut How Athens Dealt with its Economic Crisis
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 20 February, 2020
President Michel Aoun has expressed Lebanon’s desire to enhance economic and tourism cooperation with Greece and Cyprus based on unified action plans. Aoun met on Wednesday at the Baabda Palace with Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias, who is on an official visit to Beirut, ahead of a tripartite summit in March between Lebanon, Greece and Cyprus. The Greek minister emphasized the need for coordination between Lebanon and Greece in several fields in order to develop bilateral relations and support Lebanon in regional and international forums. Dendias told Aoun about his country’s experience in overcoming its economic crisis ten years ago and the subsequent financial recovery. The Greek foreign minister also met with Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Hassan Diab and Foreign Minister Nassif Hitti. Following his meeting with Hitti, he said: “We have expressed our support for the agenda of reforms presented by the government. We have also exchanged views on the regional situation, and we underscore our support for political solutions under the United Nations, whether in Libya, Syria, or other countries of the world.” The Lebanese foreign minister, for his part, noted that talks focused on economic cooperation between the two countries. “We heard from our friend, the minister, about his country’s experience, and how it managed to face its difficult conditions. Perhaps this will be a useful lesson for us, especially since Greece has managed to recover,” Hitti told reporters.

Lebanon: 785 Restaurants, Cafes Closed, 25,000 Employees Laid Off
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 20 February, 2020
The number of restaurants and cafes that closed during the last five months in Lebanon reached 785, the highest percentage of which was recorded in the Mount Lebanon region. Meanwhile more than 25,000 employees were laid off. The head of Lebanon’s syndicate of restaurants owners, Tony Ramy, said in a statement that 785 restaurants and cafes have been closed in the country since last September. He noted that the month of January alone witnessed the closing of 240 institutions. He explained that the Mount Lebanon governorate witnessed a closing rate of 54.6%, which is the highest for the year 2019, followed by Beirut, where the percentage of closings reached 29.4%, then come the North Governorate at 6.7%. The number of employees dismissed from their work exceeded 25,000, while another large portion of employees were working part-time and receiving half-pay, due to the 75 percent sales drop. “The purchase of raw materials from suppliers is based on the exchange rate of the dollar in the parallel market, at a price of LBP 2500, while the owners of institutions still adopt the official dollar exchange rate of LBP 1515 in their dealings with their customers, without an increase in prices,” Ramy noted. “This makes investors hardly able to meet the minimum obligations of their employees, on one hand, and suppliers on the other,” he added.
He stressed that the syndicate was awaiting a government action plan that would be commensurate with the current situation.

Beirut airport exchange rate rises for third time
Lauren Holtmeier, Al Arabiya English/Thursday, 20 February 2020
The Beirut airport duty-free exchange rate went up for a third time, reaching 2,100 Lebanese lira to $1. The official pegged rate is 1,500 lira to $1, though that peg has slipped since October. Now it is around 2,450 lira to $1 in the unofficial market. Lebanon’s central bank and money exchangers had previously agreed to a 2,000 to $1 rate as the economic situation in the country continues to deteriorate. At the end of January, the airport raised its rate to 1,950 lira to $1. The first hike in the rate came in December, as the exchange rate hit 1,750 lira to $1. Lebanon’s economy has been suffering for months as a shortage in dollars, needed to pay for much-needed imports, has spurred a larger economic crisis. Today in Beirut, policymakers and IMF officials are in meetings to discuss whether Lebanon will pay or default on an upcoming $1.2 billion Eurobond payment.

Lebanon’s President Aoun vows accountability over financial crisis:
Reuters, Beirut/Thursday, 20 February 2020
Lebanese President Michel Aoun said on Thursday measures would be taken to hold to account all those who contributed to Lebanon’s financial crisis through illegal actions be they transfers abroad, manipulation of Eurobonds or other acts. “There is information that we are still in need of with regards to the banking situation. There are measures that we will take to hold to account all who participated in bringing the crisis to where it is,” Aoun said, according to his Twitter account.

Prosecutors further investigate Ghosn’s Versailles palace party, other finances
Reuters, Paris/Thursday, 20 February 2020
French prosecutors have stepped up their investigation into alleged misappropriation of funds at Renault by former boss Carlos Ghosn, saying a judge had now been assigned to the case to launch a formal investigation. The prosecutor’s office in Nanterre, on the outskirts of Paris, had since last year been looking into a party Ghosn had thrown for his wife at the sumptuous Versailles palace among other financial dealings. It said in a statement on Wednesday a judge would now examine several charges linked to Renault and levelled at an unnamed person or people. A judicial source confirmed that Ghosn was among them. A lawyer for Ghosn said he welcomed the opportunity to give his version of the events. “We will provide our explanations to the designated magistrate after we can finally have access to the case file,” lawyer Jean-Yves Le Borgne told Reuters. Ghosn - now in Lebanon after he last month fled prosecution in Japan on financial misconduct charges - has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing. Reuters reported in January that judges, who have wider powers than investigators to pursue a criminal case, were set to get involved, potentially bringing prosecution a step closer. The prosecutor’s office said the case involved suspect financial flows between Renault and a car dealership in Oman, as well as spending on trips and events. Prosecutors had been looking into whether Ghosn knowingly used company resources to throw a party that was for private purposes - his wife’s birthday - in 2016. Ghosn’s lawyers have said he did nothing wrong, but there may have been a misunderstanding between Versailles and party planners over who was to foot the bill for renting the venue. Another event at Versailles in 2014, when Ghosn held a corporate party to celebrate the 15-year anniversary of Renault’s alliance with Japan’s Nissan, will now also fall under the scope of the investigation, the judicial source said. At a news conference in January, Ghosn rejected allegations that most of the guests at the party - paid for by RNBV, a Dutch-based holding company for Renault and Nissan - were his own friends and family, saying the companies had invited business contacts from dealerships and other partners. Renault conducted its own internal inquiry into Ghosn’s time at the carmaker and handed over information to prosecutors last year. This included its probe into millions of euros described as dealer incentives to an Omani distributor.

'Boycott them or they will come': Hezbollah supporters dress as 'Orthodox Jews' in anti-Semitic stunt
The New Arab/Thursday, 20 February 2020
The video was widely decried online as anti-Semitic.
A group of Hezbollah supporters dressed as Orthodox Jews staged a demonstration in Beirut on Wednesday calling for the boycott of US products in response to Donald Trump's Middle East peace plan. In a video shared online by supporters of the powerful Shia group, participants can be seen holding signs reading "Your money can boycott the deal of the century" and "Thank you IDF [Israeli Defence Force] for your support". The demonstrators, dressed all in black with fake sidelocks - traditionally grown by Orthodox Jewish men - walk through the streets of Beirut to a dramatic soundtrack as onlookers observe the protest. Other signs read "Boycott US products until they are gone", while the protesters also carried slogans written in Hebrew. The video was widely decried online as anti-semitic and ridiculed for its poor production value.Members of the group were reportedly assaulted following the demonstration after being mistaken for Orthodox Jews, social media users said.The demonstration was thought to be in response to a speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Sunday, in which he called on Lebanese citizens to boycott US goods and products as a part of a "battle" against Trump's pro-Israel peace plan.
"The Israeli is afraid of death while the American's weakness is his security and economy," Nasrallah said.Hezbollah social media accounts published lists of US products to boycott following the speech. Nasrallah's call for a boycott quickly backfired. Lebanese social media users posted sarcastic and scathing memes mocking the campaign. One user shared a photo of Nasrallah's son Jawad wearing a Timberland USA.73 sweatshirt with a caption reading: "before suggesting to your audience boycotting the US, please remove your son's sweatshirt and dress him in Iranian [clothing]". Another Twitter user wrote: "If I see any Hezbollah member carrying an iPhone, I will complain about him to Nasrallah." The call for a boycott of US goods comes as Lebanon faces the worst economic and financial crisis since the civil war. Lebanon has been suffering from slow growth, high unemployment and decades of widespread corruption and mismanagement that have triggered nationwide protests against the political elite, including Hezbollah, since mid-October

Lebanon Is Seeking IMF Advice to Exit From Its Financial Crisis, but Can It Avoid a Full Bailout?
Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/February 20/2020
Sibylle Rizk | Director of public policy at Kulluna Irada, a civic organization for political reform, in Beirut
Lebanon cannot avoid a comprehensive macrofiscal and financial stabilization and recovery plan. The alternative is a catastrophic scenario that would combine hyperinflation, devaluation, unemployment, poverty, and emigration. As a member of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Lebanon is entitled to seek its advice and assessment of its financial situation. That would require a full disclosure of the Central Bank’s and the banking sector financials to have an exact understanding of the magnitude of the losses.
We already know that Lebanon suffers from a combination of crises—balance of payment, debt, currency, financial sector, productive sector, and so on—that makes it a complex situation by any standard. The restructuring and financial needs are so great that we will probably need both a bail-in, meaning converting a portion of deposits into bank equity in a recapitalization process, after writing off the initial equity, and a bail-out, from foreign donors.
The main issue is political: Who will implement this rescue plan, knowing that Lebanon is also facing simultaneously a regime crisis? Lebanon needs a government able to steer the ship independently from the power system, based on elite-capture of the state, corruption, and clientelism. Competence, legitimacy, and credibility are key for any government that will need to reach out to external help, be it the IMF or any bilateral or institutional donor.
Ishac Diwan | Chaire Monde Arabe at Paris Sciences et Lettres, professor at the Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris.
Lebanon is in dire need of financial support to help it adjust to the sudden stop of capital inflows. The huge internal and external deficits risk generating an economic meltdown. It is no exaggeration to assume that in the absence of large and quick disbursement of support, collapse and anarchy risk turning the country into a failed state. Under the best of circumstances, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may be able, with the support of other donors, to come up with a total package of perhaps $20–25 billion over three years to support a rescue package and smoothen the inevitable short-term pain. To do so however, it will demand painful adjustments, including lower state spending, more taxes, privatization, debt reduction, and devaluation. Its goal will simply be to leave behind an economy that can repay its IMF loans within a decade.
In demanding adjustment against its support, the IMF will be in large part the messenger, prompting Lebanon to find an internal consensus on how to repair the wealth destruction brought about by the follies of its politicians. The precise ways in which the adjustment is made will have enormous distributional implications, especially how Lebanon’s huge losses are allocated across society.
Lebanon’s protest movement should not shut down the IMF option beforehand, as there is no other financial lifeline available at the moment. A better option for the movement is to support negotiations and set its own conditions on the rescue plan so that it protects the poor and the middle class. If it turns out that Lebanon cannot achieve an internal consensus on the way forward, then just as during its civil war the Phoenix may have to wait for the ashes before being reborn.
Amer Bisat | Head of sovereign and emerging markets investments at a New York-based asset manager, former International Monetary Fund senior economist, writing here solely in his personal capacity
It is time to demystify the International Monetary Fund (IMF). A full-fledged program is no longer a luxury. Lebanon needs one for three reasons. First, the Lebanese crisis is extremely complicated and seemingly intractable, and the IMF has the relevant and required expertise. Second, the Lebanese government’s reform commitment, to put it politely, lacks credibility. The IMF’s (monitored) conditionality will prove effective in anchoring implementation. Finally, and most importantly, the country’s funding gaps are enormous. Unfilled, the economy will collapse and its foreign exchange reserves will decline further. Realistically, without an IMF imprimatur, other donors will be extremely reluctant to disburse money to Lebanon.
A separate, but related, point is whether the IMF conditions will be painful? Sadly, of course they will. But that’s the wrong question. If the country is serious about dealing with its crisis, the IMF’s prescribed measures will be what are needed anyway. Also, the notion that the IMF is insensitive to political realities and to the social impact of its conditions is outdated. A strong Lebanese negotiating team will be instrumental in shaping the program’s details.
Nisreen Salti | Associate professor in the Department of Economics at the American University of Beirut
What “size” economic emergency program Lebanon needs is unclear, in the absence of any comprehensive inventory and verified consolidated balance sheets. But regardless, two fundamental reforms should precede any consideration of International Monetary Fund (IMF) involvement, whether timid (technical assistance) or robust (full program): reforms with regard to governance and with regard to an economic vision.
The IMF will come with policy prescriptions, some intrusive, with direct winners and losers—privatization, the lifting of subsidies, management of the public wage bill, and so on. There is much discord over the effectiveness and soundness of IMF intervention. But even proponents concede that pushing some of these policies in a system as corrupt and clientelistic as Lebanon’s, without enacting reforms toward better governance, transparency, and the rule of law (all outside of the IMF’s direct purview), is dangerous. It could provide the cover of “IMF conditionality” to further entrench the corrupt elite’s grip on the economy. IMF bailouts purport to steer economies toward a path of economic growth, macroeconomic stability, and sustainable debt. Even when they include provisions for social safety nets, they do not adopt as objectives any distributional outcomes. But an economy can grow, be macroeconomically stable, and be fiscally responsible, yet distribute income in a highly unequal way. If Lebanon’s collective economic vision is one that aims to correct the alarmingly skewed distribution of wealth and income (a distribution that has resulted from the very policies that have contributed to the crisis), adding a distributional objective to the triad of goals that are already explicit in an IMF bailout will also dictate which path to recovery the country chooses to tread. That may well require some policies that are not squarely in the IMF orthodoxy.
Sami Nader | Director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, economist, and lecturer at Université Saint Joseph in Beirut
Lebanon’s ruling class has never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity and engage in real economic reform. The last time this was true was after the CEDRE conference of international donors held in Paris in April 2018, which offered a financial package of around $18 billion, to be implemented in two phase, in exchange for the Lebanese government’s introduction of long-awaited reforms. Yet the Lebanese political system is incapable of reforming, since that would imply a weakening of the country’s political forces who would be deprived of their sources of funding.
CEDRE was the last chance to save the country at practically no cost. Today that is no longer the case. Lebanon is collapsing. The issue is no longer about how to avoid a crash but how to minimize its cost. Reforms, though necessary, are simply not enough anymore. Lebanon need a cash injection of at least $15–20 billion to restructure its public finances and banking system and avoid deep economic recession. No donor is ready to offer such a sum pro bono, as used to be the case in the past when Gulf Cooperation Council countries would give Lebanon money. Lebanon, under the auspices of Hezbollah, has lost his friends and their generous favors. It now needs to borrow money, and the only door on which it can knock is that of the International Monetary Fund.

‘Social explosion’ in Lebanese camps imminent, warn officials
Najia Houssari/Arab News/February 21/2020
Situation volatile as Palestinian refugees face economic crisis after US peace plan
BEIRUT: Authorities are battling to prevent “a social explosion” among Palestinian refugees crammed into camps in Lebanon, a top official has revealed.
Fathi Abu Al-Ardat, secretary of Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) factions in Lebanon, told Arab News that urgent measures were being put in place to try and stop the “crisis” situation getting out of control. “Conditions in Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon are very difficult due to the economic crisis facing the country, and we are trying to delay a social explosion in the camps and working on stopgap solutions,” he said. And Dr. Hassan Mneimneh, the head of the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee (LPDC), said: “More Palestinian refugees from the camps in Lebanon are immigrating. Embassies are receiving immigration requests, and Canada is inundated with a wave of immigration because its embassy has opened doors to applications.”
According to a population census conducted in 2017 by the Central Administration of Statistics in Lebanon, in coordination with the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS), there are 174,422 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon spread across 12 camps and nearby compounds.
Mneimneh insisted the figure was accurate despite the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) estimating there to be 459,292 refugees in the country. He said: “The census we had conducted refers to the current reality in Lebanon.”
He added that he feared “increased pressure on European donor countries over UNRWA in the coming days after the unilateral implementation of the ‘Deal of the Century’ (the US peace plan for the Middle East) by Israel.“Israel’s goal is to undermine UNRWA’s mission as a prelude to ending the Palestinian cause and, thus, preventing the return of Palestinians.”Mneimneh held a meeting on Wednesday with two Lebanese and Palestinian action groups in Lebanon to discuss Palestinian asylum issues in light of the American peace plan. There were no representatives of Hezbollah or Hamas present at the talks.
He said: “This deal kick-starts an unusual stage that carries the most serious risks not only to the Palestinian people and cause, but also to the other countries and entities in the Arab region.
“The first of these is Lebanon, which senses the danger of this announcement in view of the clauses it contains to eliminate the Palestinian cause, including the refugee issue and the possibility of their settlement in the host countries.”
Al-Ardat said: “Palestinian refugees have no choice but to withstand the pressures on them to implement the so-called ‘Deal of the Century.’ What is proposed is that we sell our country for promises, delusions, and $50 billion distributed to three countries. Palestine is not for sale.”
He pointed out that “the camps in Lebanon resorted to family solidarity in coordination with the shops in the camps. Whoever does not have money can go to the shop after two (2 p.m.) in the afternoon and get vegetables for free. “We have been securing 7,000 packs of bread to distribute in the camps and buying the same amount to sell the pack at 500 liras. But this does not solve the problem.”He added: “The PLO leadership continues to perform its duty toward the refugees and, until now, we have not been affected by the restrictions imposed by banks in Lebanon, and refugees are still receiving medical treatment.
“However, our concern now is that Palestinian refugees do not starve, taking into account all the indications that the situation in Lebanon will not improve soon. “Twenty percent of the Palestinians in Lebanon receive wages either from UNRWA — as they work there — or from the PLO because they are affiliated with the factions, but 80 percent are unemployed and have no income.”
The meeting hosted by Mneimneh agreed “the categorical rejection of the ‘Deal of the Century’ because it means further erasing the identity existence of the Palestinian people as well as their national rights, especially their right to return and establish their independent state.
“It also means assassinating the Palestinian peoples’ legitimate rights and supporting Israel’s usurpation of international justice and 72 years of Arab struggle. “The deal includes ambiguous, illegal and immoral approaches that contradict all relevant UN and Security Council resolutions, especially with regard to the establishment of the Palestinian state on the Palestinian territories occupied in 1967 and the inalienable right of Palestinian refugees to return to their homeland and establish their state with Jerusalem as its capital,” a statement on the meeting added.
“UNRWA must remain the living international witness to the ongoing suffering and tragedy of the Palestinian people, and UNRWA must continue to receive support.” Attendees at the talks also recommended “improving the conditions of the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon to strengthen the elements of their steadfastness until they return.” This was “based on the Unified Lebanese Vision for the Palestinian Refugees Affairs in Lebanon document, which includes the right to work.”

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 20-21/2020
At Least Nine Killed in Germany Shisha Bar Shootings
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 20/2020
At least nine people were killed in shootings targeting shisha bars in Germany that sparked a huge manhunt overnight before the suspected gunman was found dead in his home early Thursday. The attacks occurred at two bars in Hanau, about 20 kilometres (12 miles) from Frankfurt, where armed police quickly fanned out and police helicopters roamed the sky looking for those responsible for the bloodshed. Police in the central state of Hesse said the likely perpetrator had been found at his home in Hanau after they located a getaway vehicle seen by witnesses. Another body was also discovered at the property. "The suspected perpetrator has been found dead," police in the central state of Hesse said, adding: "There is currently no indication that there are additional perpetrators." The mass-circulation Bild said that those killed in the first bar were of Kurdish origin. The first attack occurred at the "Midnight" bar in the centre of the city around 10pm (2100 GMT), reports said. Three people were killed in front of the building, local media said, with witnesses reporting hearing a dozen shots. The attacker, or attackers, fled the scene by car, according to police. There was then a second shooting at the "Arena Bar".
A gunman reportedly rang the doorbell and shot people who were in the smoking section, killing five people including a woman, Bild said. "The victims are people we have known for years," said the bar manager's son, quoted by DPA news agency. Two employees were among the victims, according to the man, who was not at the bar during the shooting. "It is a shock for everyone". Police said one of those injured in the attack had also died. Earlier reports said five people had been seriously wounded. An AFP journalist at the scene saw around 30 police cars leaving Hanau police station. Witnesses said heavily armed police officers were deployed in the city. A silver Mercedes-Benz covered by what looked like a survival blanket could be seen behind a police cordon and surrounded by officers in front of the "Arena Bar", with shattered glass on the floor. "The search for suspects is going at top speed. There is no clear information yet as to a motive," authorities said.
'Horror scenario'
The mayor of Hanau, Claus Kaminsky, told Bild that it had been "a terrible night". "You could not imagine a worse night. It will of course keep us busy for a long, long time and remain a sad memory." "I am deeply moved. Just the fact that eight people have lost their lives has shaken me up. But I ask all citizens not to speculate. "The police must have the chance to clear up the situation and investigate -- until then, we should wait with prudence, no matter how hard this may be."Katja Leikert, the MP for the region, said it was "a real horror scenario". "On this dreadful night for Hanau, I would like to express my deepest condolences to the relatives of those killed. I hope the injured will recover quickly," she said. Germany has been targeted in recent years by several extremist attacks, one of which killed 12 people in the heart of Berlin in December 2016. Far-right attacks have become a particular concern for German authorities. In October, a deadly anti-Semitic gun attack in the eastern city of Halle on the holy day of Yom Kippur underscored the rising threat of neo-Nazi violence. The rampage, in which two people were shot dead, was streamed live. Last June, conservative politician Walter Luebcke, an advocate of a liberal refugee policy, was shot at his home.  On Friday police arrested 12 members of a German extreme right group believed to have been plotting "shocking" large-scale attacks on mosques similar to the ones carried out in New Zealand last year. German-Turkish Islamic organisation Ditib, which funds around 900 mosques in Germany, called for greater protections for Muslims in the country, saying they "no longer feel safe" in Germany.

UK Police Rule Out Terror in London Mosque Stabbing
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 20/2020
British police on Thursday said they were not treating as terror related a London mosque stabbing in which an elderly worshiper suffered non life-threatening injuries. The London ambulance service said the victim had been taken "to a major trauma center" after the mid-afternoon attack. "A 29-year-old man, who is believed to have been attending prayers, was arrested inside the mosque on suspicion of attempted murder," the London police said in a statement. "The incident is not being treated as terror related at this time."The police said the victim was a man in his 70s and his condition "assessed as non life-threatening." The London Central Mosque said the assailant stabbed its Muazzin -- a religious leader who calls the faithful to prayer -- during the fifth daily prayer. It added that the assailant was apprehended by worshipers until the police arrived at the scene. The victim "did not sustain any life-threatening injuries but was seriously injured and is being treated at the hospital," the mosque said on its website. One witness said the man appeared to have been stabbed in the neck while another said it was the right shoulder. Prime Minister Boris Johnson tweeted that he was "deeply saddened" to learn of the attack. "It's so awful that this should happen, especially in a place of worship. My thoughts are with the victim and all those affected," Johnson said. Photographs shared on social media from inside the mosque in Regent's Park showed a white man in a red hooded top being pinned to the ground and handcuffed by two police officers.The picture showed a group of male worshiper in their winter overcoats standing nearby and watching the scene. One video showed a small knife lying under a plastic white chair next to the suspect. Another showed the suspect being silently led escorted out of the mosque by police. The Muslim Council of Britain said that "regardless of the motive of the attacker, we must remain remain calm but vigilant". "We will be reassessing out safety advice to mosques across the country," it said in a statement. "Whilst many Muslims may be fearful, it is heartening to see faith and community leaders expressing their solidarity and support."
'Silent the whole time'
One witness told Britain's domestic Press Association that the suspect "was praying behind him and then he stabbed him." The suspect "was silent the whole time," witness Abi Watkin told the news agency. The mosque said it had received phone calls expressing concern and solidarity from the offices of both Johnson and London Mayor Sadiq Khan. "Every Londoner is entitled to feel safe in their place of worship and I want to reassure London's communities that acts of violence in our city will not be tolerated," the London mayor tweeted. The Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby also tweeted his "sympathy." The stabbing occurred one day after a shooter with apparent far-right beliefs killed nine people at a shisha bar and a cafe in the German city of Hanau. The victims were all described as having a "migrant background." Britain's interior minister Priti Patel said on Twitter that "police must now be given space to investigate" the London attack.

US sanctions five Iranian officials for obstructing ‘free and fair’ elections
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/Thursday, 20 February 2020
The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned on Thursday five Iranian members of the Guardian Council, which oversees the parliamentary elections in the country, accusing them of abusing their power of vetting candidates’ eligibility to run and depriving the Iranian nation of a “free and fair” elections. “The Trump Administration will not tolerate the manipulation of elections to favor the regime’s malign agenda, and this action exposes those senior regime officials responsible for preventing the Iranian people from freely choosing their leaders,” said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday. The Treasury sanctioned Ahmad Jannati, Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, Siamak Rahpeyk, Mohammad Hasan Sadeghi Moghadam and Mohammad Yazdi. The Guardian Council, which reports directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, allowed approximately 7,150 candidates to run out of more than 14,000, according to state TV. Nearly a third of sitting parliamentarians were banned from running again. Iranians go to the ballot boxes to cast their votes on Friday.

Pompeo Meets U.S. Troops in Saudi Visit Focused on Iran
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 20/2020
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited American troops in Saudi Arabia Thursday after talks with King Salman on the second day of a visit focused on countering Iran. The United States began building up its military presence at the Prince Sultan air base, south of Riyadh, last year following a series of attacks in the Gulf that Washington and Riyadh have blamed on their common foe Iran. "Pompeo's visit to Prince Sultan air base and a nearby U.S. .Patriot battery highlights the long-standing US-Saudi security relationship and reaffirms America's determination to stand with Saudi Arabia in the face of Iranian malign behavior," the State Department said in a statement. "In response to the attacks and at the request of Saudi Arabia, the United States deployed missile defense, and fighter jets on a defensive mission to deter and protect against any future attacks." Pompeo's three-day visit to close ally Saudi Arabia comes in the wake of a U.S.-ordered drone strike that killed Qasem Soleimani, Iran's most powerful general, as he visited Baghdad on January 3. Regional tensions rose due to the killing and Iran responded with missile strikes on U.S. forces in Iraq. U.S. President Donald Trump and his oil-rich ally Riyadh have accused Iran of attacking tankers in the Gulf and Saudi oil installations, incidents which roiled global energy markets last year.  Tehran denies involvement in the attacks and Riyadh has since appeared keen to engage in cautious diplomacy to ease friction. Before visiting the air base, Pompeo held talks with King Salman in Riyadh. The top U.S. diplomat is also expected to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and deputy defense minister Prince Khalid bin Salman. Pompeo faces a tough balancing act in Saudi Arabia as he said he would also discuss "human rights" alongside economic issues during his visit. The 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which sparked global condemnation of the powerful crown prince, has tested relations between the two allies. Five U.S. senators have urged Pompeo to press Saudi Arabia for a resolution of a case against dual U.S.-Saudi national Walid Fitaihi, a Harvard-trained doctor who was allegedly tortured and detained without charge for nearly two years, and end a travel ban on his family.

Iran’s Khamenei tightens grip on parliamentary elections, low turnout expected
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/Thursday, 20 February 2020
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s grip over Iran is expected to tighten with parliamentary elections on Friday as all the eligible candidates come with the ruler’s stamp of approval and thousands of other hopefuls were disqualified. Low voter turnout is expected as many people regard the elections as a meaningless exercise in political theatre. “These elections are essentially meaningless because the Iranian system is set up in a way that you can only run for office if you have been approved by Ayatollah Khamenei and his people,” Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute told Al Arabiya English. Thousands of reformist and conservative candidates were disqualified by the Guardian Council, a body made up of 12 clerics and jurists, which determines the eligibility of candidates according to criteria such as their commitment to Islamic practices, their loyalty to Velayat-e Faqih, Iran’s religious system of law, and the Islamic Republic. The Guardian Council, which reports directly to Khamenei, allowed approximately 7,150 candidates to run out of more than 14,000, according to state TV. Nearly a third of sitting parliamentarians were banned from running again. Khamenei urged Iranians to participate in the elections, saying on Tuesday it was a “religious, national, and revolutionary duty,” according to semi-official news agency Tasnim. Mostafa Tajzadeh, a former deputy minister under former President Mohammad Khatami, said in a Tweet he will boycott the elections because they had effectively become “appointments” by Khamenei, rather than impartial elections. Analysts see that the mass disqualifications have a dual purpose for Khamenei. First, to weaken President Hassan Rouhani and his allies including the outgoing Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani; and second, to secure a loyal parliament ahead of the presidential poll next year. “This maneuver serves two purposes: In the short term, should Ali Larijani run for and win the presidential election in 2021, a parliament hostile to Larijani secures the overall checks and balances within the system,” Ali Alfoneh, senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told Al Arabiya English. “In the longer term, a uniform parliament makes political succession after Khamenei easier for the regime,” he added.
Voter turnout
In a country of 83 million people, there are about 58 million eligible voters who are over 18 years old. However, many analysts expect a low turnout, and caution that the Iranian regime will claim victory regardless of the actual results, especially after the widespread protests against rising living costs that broke out in November. “Even before these protests, voter turnout was anticipated to be lower than normal. Participation in the July 2019 Tehran municipality election was at a nadir of nine percent,” Sanam Vakil, Senior Research Fellow at Middle East and North Africa Program, Chatham House told Al Arabiya English. “To prepare for this challenge, Iran’s parliament has lowered the vote threshold for a valid result from 25 to 20 percent,” she added. There has been widespread discontent with the regime, especially as oil revenue has dried up as a result of economic sanctions imposed by the US.
The regime has also been under great pressure since last year when hundreds of protesters, upset with a hike in fuel prices, were killed in what was the bloodiest crackdown since the 1979 Islamic revolution. “It is expected that the urban-based youth that are economically frustrated by the political and economic situation will not participate,” Vakil said. The killing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani by a US strike in Iraq briefly united Iranians in a sense of national solidarity. However, that was quickly replaced by anger at the regime when the military shot down a civilian aircraft taking off from Tehran airport killing all 176 people abroad, and then tried to cover it up. “I suspect it will be a historic low turnout, and the numbers that will be produced by the Iranian government will have to be taken with a big grain of salt because whatever happens, they will claim a win,” Vatanka said. Rouhani has tried to rally people and encourage them to vote: “I beg you not to be passive… I am asking you… not to turn your back on ballot boxes,” he said in a speech on February 11.

Jubeir Says No Back Channels With Iran
Riyadh - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 20 February, 2020
Saudi Arabia's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir called on Iran to respect international norms, stop financing terrorism and to commit to principles of good neighborliness with the Gulf states. Speaking at a joint press conference in Riyadh after meeting with Norwegian Foreign Minister Ine Marie Eriksen Soreide, Jubeir stressed there were no back channels between Saudi Arabia and Iran, adding that the Kingdom’s stance on Tehran is clear. “There is no back channel with Iran because our position with regards to Iran is very clear. I just said it to you publicly. What we want Iran to abide by the rules … we want Iran to respect international law, we want Iran to respect the sovereignty of other countries,” Jubeir was quoted by al-Arabiya Channel. Meanwhile, Jubeir indicated that his talks with the visiting FM touched on the Yemeni crisis. They discussed bilateral relations and cooperation, ways to provide humanitarian assistance to Yemen, and regional and international issues of common concern. Jubeir noted that Norway is one of the largest countries supporting Yemen, and stressed the need to support the mission of the UN envoy Martin Griffiths to reach a political settlement and open a humanitarian corridor for aid delivery. He also highlighted the US peace plan in the Middle East, stressing that Riyadh is committed to supporting the Palestinian decision because Palestinians will determine whether this agreement can be accepted or not. Jubair said that since the era of King Abdulaziz, Saudi Arabia’s position has been to support the Palestinian choice. He added that the Kingdom can provide assistance and advice, but the decision is for the Palestinians and only they can determine whether the offer meets their expectations or not.
He concluded that Saudi Arabia will support Palestine, which is also the position of most Arab and Islamic states.

Saudi-US Naval Exercise to Kick Off in Eastern Province
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 20 February, 2020
A mixed naval exercise will kick off next week as the Royal Saudi Naval Forces will host the US Navy at King Abdulaziz Naval Base in the Eastern Fleet. The exercise is an extension of a series of previous joint exercises between the two countries. It aims to raise combat readiness to maintain freedom of maritime navigation. The exercise also enhances maritime security in the region and unifies the concepts of naval combat work.

Turkey, Russia, Iran will meet to discuss Syria’s Idlib: Turkish official
Reuters/Thursday, 20 February 2020
Turkey, Russia, and Iran will meet in Tehran next month to discuss Syria’s Idlib and a Russian delegation may come to Ankara before that, according to a Turkish official speaking on condition of anonymity. Turkey and Russia are discussing possible joint patrols around Syria’s Idlib as one option to ensure security of the region, the official said. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu had said earlier on Thursday that there was some rapprochement with Russia in talks about Syria’s Idlib region, where Ankara has threatened to mount an offensive, but added that discussions were not at a desired level yet.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that a Turkish military operation in Idlib to drive back a Russian-led Syrian regime offensive that has displaced nearly a million people was a “matter of time” after talks with Moscow failed to reach a solution. Speaking to broadcaster TRT Haber, Cavusoglu said Turkey and Russia would intensify their talks on Idlib in the coming days, adding that Erdogan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin may discuss the issue as well.

Russia urges Turkey to stop ‘supporting terrorists’ in Syria
AFP, Moscow/Thursday, 20 February 2020
Moscow on Thursday urged Turkey to stop “supporting terrorists” in Syria, saying Russian planes had carried out air strikes against armed groups backed by Ankara. “We urge the Turkish side, in order to avoid incidents, to cease support of the actions of terrorists and handing them arms,” the Russian defense ministry said in a statement. Russia, which backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, accused Turkey of aiding opposition fighters battling government forces in the northwestern Idlib province by firing artillery as the opposition carried out an attack.Moscow said that on Syria’s request its bombers carried out strikes on “terrorist armed formations,” allowing the Syrian forces to repel the attack. Separately, Turkey said two of its soldiers had been killed in an air strike in Idlib, blaming the Syrian regime. The Russian defense ministry said it told Ankara that it had spotted Turkish artillery firing on Syrian units, wounding four soldiers. “We note this is not the first case of support for rebel fighters by Turkey,” the defense ministry said. Russia on Wednesday warned Turkey against attacking Syrian forces after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to launch an operation in Syria’s Idlib region.

Syrian govt air strikes kill two Turkish soldiers: Turkey
Reuters, Ankara/Thursday, 20 February 2020
Turkey said on Thursday that two Turkish soldiers were killed and another five were wounded in Syrian government air strikes near the northwestern region of Idlib on Thursday, adding that more than 50 Syrian forces had been killed in retaliation. The attacks come a day after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned of an imminent Turkish military offensive in Idlib, where Syrian forces, backed by Russia air power, have mounted an offensive to capture the region. Earlier this month, 13 Turkish soldiers were killed in Syrian attacks, prompting Erdogan to say that Turkey will strike Syrian forces “anywhere” in Syria if another soldier was hurt. In a statement, the defense ministry said five tanks, two armored personnel carriers, two armored trucks and one howitzer were also destroyed in retaliation. Shortly after Turkey’s Communications Director Fahrettin Altun said the soldiers, who were in Idlib to “establish peace and manage humanitarian aid operations,” were killed by “an attack carried out by the (Syrian) regime.”

Ongoing clashes in Syria’s Idlib province leave 27 fighters dead: War monitor
AFP/Thursday, 20 February 2020
Clashes pitting Turkish forces and their Syrian opposition allies against pro-regime forces left 27 fighters dead Thursday including two Turkish soldiers in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib, a war monitor reported.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 11 pro-regime fighters and 14 on the opposition's side were killed as well as the two Turkish soldiers. Ankara's defense ministry likewise reported two Turkish soldiers killed in an airstrike in the Idlib region. The Observatory said Syrian opposition fighters backed by Turkish artillery fire had seized the Nayrab area between provincial capital Idlib and the key regime-controlled town of Saraqib. They withdrew following several hours of clashes and dozens of Russian and regime airstrikes, it said. The Observatory added that jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham also targeted Syrian government forces in Nayrab. Turkish forces also fired artillery at Saraqib, a regime-controlled town on a key highway from Damascus to Aleppo, it said. Both the Turks and the Syrian government claimed the other side had been defeated. Turkish-backed Syrian fighters sit together inside a vehicle in the town of Qaminas in the southern countryside of the northwestern Idlib province on February 20, 2020, as they prepare to head into combat against government forces in nearby Nayrab to the southeast. (AFP) Syrian government and allied forces have in recent weeks conducted a devastating offensive, with Russian backing, to flush out the last opposition enclave in the country. The area hosts some three million people, many of them displaced by violence elsewhere. The assault has allowed the regime to reclaim swathes of territory in the south of Idlib province and in neighboring Aleppo province. The fighting has also caused an unprecedented wave of displacement, with around 900,000 people – more than half of them children – forced to flee their homes and shelters since December, according to UN figures.

Ankara will activate Russian S-400 missile systems: Turkish defense minister
Reuters, AnkaraThursday, 20 February 2020
Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on Thursday that Turkey will activate the S-400 missile systems which it has bought from Russia and there should be “no doubt” about this. Akar was speaking in an interview with broadcaster CNN Turk.

Israel, Palestinians End Trade Dispute
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 20 February, 2020
Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett said Thursday that Israel would now allow Palestinian agricultural exports, in a move to defuse the escalating trade crisis that had heightened tensions between both sides. Bennet said this came after Palestinians began accepting Israeli beef.The Palestinian agriculture ministry also announced the immediate import of "livestock, including calves" as well as "all products and commercial goods from all countries of the world without obstacles". "This came after a series of direct and indirect discussions through international parties, which resulted in Israel retracting its illegal measures," the ministry said in a statement late Wednesday, AFP reported. The trade crisis erupted in September, when the Palestinians decided to stop importing beef from Israel. The Palestinian Authority claimed most of the 120,000 head of cattle they imported monthly from Israel was itself imported and that they therefore preferred to import directly from abroad. The move appeared aimed at reducing the Palestinians’ economic dependence on Israel. Shortly after the September announcement, Israeli cattle ranchers saw a drop in their market and pressured Israeli authorities to take action, according to the Associated Press. Bennett responded with a ban on Palestinian beef and other products, which pushed the Palestinians to expand their boycott, and stop importing Israeli vegetables, fruits, beverages and mineral water. The Palestinians said their actions are aimed at pressuring Israel into revoking its ban, while Israel said normal trade would be restored the moment the Palestinians reverse the cattle ban that sparked the crisis.

Israel Targets Jihad Squad, Eases Gaza Restrictions
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 20 February, 2020
Israeli troops targeted Wednesday the Islamic Jihad sniper squad near Khan Younis, south of the Gaza Strip, hours after Israel eased some restrictions in the Palestinian enclave. The Israeli military said in a statement that it targeted a cell that had opened fire on its forces on the Israeli side of the border.
Israeli troops “attacked the sniper cell to neutralize the threat,” it said. Islamic Jihad did not release a statement, but medical sources said one Palestinian was slightly injured in the attack.Tension between Israel and Islamic Jihad has been high since last November, when they clashed for two days after Israel assassinated a senior commander of the movement, Baha Abu al-Atta. Earlier this week, Israel extended Gaza’s fishing zone to 15 nautical miles and increased the number of travel permits from the Strip to 2,000, following three days of relative calm in the coastal enclave.Prior to that, Israel had restricted the fishing zone down to 10 nautical miles and canceled some 500 travel permits after weeks of regular rocket fire and the launching of explosive-laden balloons into Israel. Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories Maj. Gen. Kamil Abu Rukun announced that Israel will extend the zone and increase the number of permits as long as the quiet is preserved.
According to Yedioth Aharonoth daily, the eased restrictions came after pressure exerted by army chief of staff Aviv Kochavi and the government's coordinator in the regions. The army wants to encourage the establishment of factories to improve Gaza’s infrastructure, and the humanitarian situation in order to stop explosive balloons and missile attacks. Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett said Wednesday he is prepared to “give Hamas a chance” to fully implement ceasefire understandings. He added that Israel is nonetheless preparing for a military campaign that would lead to “a fundamental change” in the Gaza Strip. Speaking in an interview with Ynet, Bennett claimed he remains skeptical, but “if the use of military force can be avoided, I prefer it.”He warned that if Hamas continues its violent attacks against Israel, the movement is in for “a very painful spring.”The Minister then said that if the explosive balloons and rocket attacks are renewed, “we'll close the border again.”On Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military was planning a “big surprise” for Hamas if the movement failed to curb violence aimed at southern Israel. Speaking to Army Radio, Netanyahu warned that Hamas and other organizations such as Islamic Jihad must understand that either there is complete quiet and they rein in the rogue factions “or we will have no choice but to launch our operational programs. I can’t share what they are, but I can say it will be a big surprise.”

Washington welcomes South Sudan deal on unity government
AFP, Washington/Friday, 21 February 2020
The United States, which has curbed relations with South Sudan over its political impasse, on Thursday welcomed a deal on reaching a long-awaited unity government. Rebel leader Riek Machar said he would form a unity government with his arch-rival, President Salva Kiir, seeking to end a devastating war that has engulfed the impoverished nation since its independence in 2011. “We welcome Dr. Machar’s firm commitment to form an inclusive unity government by February 22,” Tibor Nagy, the top US diplomat for Africa, wrote on Twitter. He also saluted a key compromise that helped seal the deal - cutting the current 32 regional states down to 10. Another US official said that Washington was eager to support the unity government once it is formed. “We look forward to partnering with the new unity government in their pursuit of peace and supporting the parties to ensure a successful transition,” the official said. After the warring leaders missed a second deadline to form a unity government, the United States had said it would reassess its relationship with South Sudan, a largely Christian nation whose path to independence enjoyed strong US support. The United States temporarily withdrew its ambassador and imposed sanctions on two sitting ministers, accusing them of obstructing peace efforts. The United States has been providing around $1 billion a year in food and other humanitarian assistance and had accused the dueling leaders of relying on international generosity to meet their people’s basic needs.

South Sudan's rival leaders Kiir, Machar to form unity government
AFP, JubaThursday, 20 February 2020
South Sudan President Salva Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar agreed Thursday to form a unity government on Saturday, a long-delayed step towards ending six years of war. “We have agreed to form the government in two days on 22nd February. We are still discussing on other things and I am hopeful we will resolve them all,” Machar said after a meeting between the two men.Kiir confirmed that they had agreed to join together for the third time in government – an experiment which has twice previously ended in disaster. It was a dispute between the two men which pushed the young nation into war in December 2013, only two years after a hard-fought independence. “As the president, I will be appointing the vice presidents, and I will start by appointing Riek tomorrow (Friday) in the morning and I will dissolve the government today and then form a new government on the 22nd,” he said.
“These are changes which will bring peace.”The formation of a unity government was a linchpin of a September 2018 peace deal. But it has been delayed twice by failure to move forward on crucial issues such as forming a unified army, carving out state borders and creating a protection force to assure Machar’s security. Read: South Sudan cuts number of states from 32 to 10, unlocking stalled peace deal. Kiir said his forces would be in charge of security in Juba as well as Machar’s protection. “I have taken responsibility of protection, as the unified forces are still under training,” he said. He urged some 190,000 people living under United Nations protection in tent cities in the capital and across the nation – many of whom have lived there for several years, “to come out, because the dawn of peace has come.”

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 20-21/2020
Drain Society, Feed the Military
Muhsen Al-Mustafa/ Carnegie MEC/February 20/2020
Changes to Syria’s conscription law will prevent the repairing of relations between the armed forces and civilians.
The Syrian People’s Assembly on December 17 passed an amendment to Article 97 of the country’s conscription law (Legislative Decree No. 30 of 2007), which applies to people who have evaded compulsory military service and have “abstained from paying [a discharge fee] directly.” It allows for the “executive seizure of financial assets [of such a person] without warning when he reaches 43 years of age, as well as the provisional seizure of capital held by his wife, or wives, and children, until it can be proven that these did not come from [the person in question], in cases where his capital was insufficient” to cover the set discharge fee.
This amendment reflects how the regime is continuing to drain the financial, human, and institutional resources of Syrian society to serve its military apparatus and ensure its own stability. The amendment was passed to boost regime revenues, and was one of a series of preemptive steps aimed at easing the effects of the United States’ Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act (or “Caesar Act”), which has imposed sanctions against the regime. The amendment pays little attention to the resulting negative impacts on civilian-military relations in Syria, which have been deteriorating for decades.
The regime had reasons for modifying the legislation. Article 97 and its amendments had allowed it to force men over conscription age seeking discharge to pay $8,000 or the equivalent amount, as well as to provisionally confiscate both the moveable and immovable assets of those who declined to pay the discharge fee (for collection under the Public Funds Collection Law). However, legislating for provisional confiscation of a given amount contradicted the intended benefit of the legislation, which was a precautionary measure in the event the regime needed to seize assets that were contested or not fixed, and because such seizures needed to be monitored to establish rights based on the Civil Procedure Law.
The December 2019 shift from “provisional seizure” to “executive seizure” took place two years after the passing of the previous amendment, possibly in order to allow time to understand and interpret the law and to avoid deepening Syria’s economic crisis. It also allowed time for the regime to retain some control over the human resources within the military.
Any Syrian man eligible for military service, whether an expatriate or a refugee, has four options once he has regularized his status at a Syrian embassy. He can, first, return to Syria and complete his compulsory service; second, pay the sum of $8,000 before reaching 43 years old, as outlined in Article 13 of the military service law; third, pay the same sum in lieu of service, after turning 43; or fourth, face executive confiscation of his assets and provisional confiscation of his wife’s, or wives’, and children’s assets, without warning.
In other words, the Syrian regime has told its citizens living abroad that either they can complete their obligatory military service, compensating for the state’s shortfall in military personnel, or sooner or later they will have to pay the specified sum. Otherwise, they risk the inevitable executive seizure of their assets to provide financial resources to help the regime overcome a suffocating economic crisis.
The change discussed herein, the fifth alteration to Article 97, is the latest in a series of similar amendments, except it has not yet been officially ratified by the head of state, as required by Article 100 of the Syrian constitution of 2012. Since the first version of the law passed in 2007, Article 97 has been changed four times, as follows:
Legislative Decree No. 20, 2008: Added the phrase “Legal administrative delay.”
Law 36 of 2009: Changed the value of the sum to be paid in lieu of service, from 35 to 30 months’ salary for a lieutenant, warrant officer, first sergeant, sergeant, or corporal, depending on the person’s highest educational certificate.
Legislative Decree 33 of 2014: Set the payment in lieu of service at $8,000 instead of the aforementioned 30 months’ salary, according to the person’s educational level. This amount was set regardless of the salary the person would have earned in the army, thus reaping greater amounts due to the differences between salaries.
Law 35 of 2017: This amendment for the first time legislated for provisional seizure of movable and immovable assets of those who decline to pay the conscription waiver fee.
The table shows amendments to Article 97 and the revenues it has brought the Syrian treasury since the law was first promulgated in 2007—assuming the person is a conscripted lieutenant. This is the rank the Syrian army gives to a conscript who has completed four years of university studies. In general, a rank is set for each type of qualification, and the soldier will retain it for the length of his service.
Changes to Syria’s conscription law will prevent the repairing of relations between the armed forces and civilians.
The Syrian pound’s spiraling black market rate, which has now surpassed SYP1,100 to $1, means the regime’s financial benefits from conscription waiver fees have changed dramatically. A single such fee now covers the salaries of 132 lieutenants for a month.
The vast economic changes that have rocked Syria since the uprising in 2011 and the collapse of its currency against the dollar have forced the regime to seek ways to rapidly boost its revenues. To this end, it has used both parliamentary legislation and presidential decrees. It first set the fee for avoiding conscription at $8,000, raising the bar to provisional, then executive, seizure of the assets of those over the age of 42 (the maximum conscription age), for those unable or unwilling to pay. This was a preemptive step against Syrians living outside the country, creating a mechanism by which the state could ultimately seize the assets of those concerned (known to the regime by name), constituting the vast majority of such cases in the coming years.
This change is also an attack on the rights of refugees, similar to Law No. 10 of 2018 and other mechanisms through which the regime has confiscated the property of its opponents—both civilians and those who have defected from the military—on the pretext of fighting terrorism or seeking fugitives.
This legislation is just the latest in a series of laws and legislative decrees since 2011 that serve the military at the expense of society. In the long term and through multiple mechanisms, which could develop further in response to future circumstances, such legislation could either provide the military with an increase in personnel or boost the state’s foreign currency reserves. But by passing this amendment, the Syrian regime deepens preexisting social divisions. It will not help heal the enormous wounds left by nine years of war.

Le " séparatisme islamiste " et les défis de la démocratie occidentale
Charles Elias Chartouni/February 20/2020
Le président Macron se prononce une nouvelle fois contre le " séparatisme islamiste " pour dissiper toute confusion sémantique, alors que celui ci cherche à installer une extraterritorialité de fait, de circonscrire des espaces islamiques mutants, de s’inscrire dans des topographies qui lui permettent de se situer en lisière de la république et d’en contester les fondements. L’islam se définit à partir d’une matrice idéologique concurrente qui remet en question le récit national, les institutions républicaines, les mécanismes et enjeux de l’intégration, la place de l’islam dans le cadre du pluralisme religieux, les bornes du religieux et du politique, tout en cherchant à instrumentaliser les institutions républicaines et le trésor public au profit de sa stratégie communautaire et ses projets de subversion.
Les institutions représentatives des islams de France, en dépit de leurs profils contrastés, opèrent à partir d’ambiguïtés qui tournent principalement autour des distinctions notionnelles du religieux et du politique et leurs registres d’inscription, la contestation de la loi républicaine au nom des partitions binaires du licite et de l’illicite ( الحلال والحرام ), des prescriptions rituelles qui en émanent et de leurs champs d’application qui remettent en question de manière insidieuse la loi républicaine et son champ lexical et discursif, et la subvertit de manière insidieuse et graduée: le champ d’application du licite et de l’illicite évoluant au gré de prescriptions jurisprudentielles mutantes qui couvrent la topographie de l’imaginaire islamique et ses modulations territoriale et comportementale, de manière à instituer des exclusions progressives qui s’étendent sur des aires diverses: régimes alimentaires, codes vestimentaires, rites social et cosmétique, rituels funéraires et carrés de sépulture, statuts sociaux ( rapports homme/ femme, musulman/ non musulman, classes d’âge .... ), champ éducatif ( ségrégation scolaire, programmes d’enseignement, acteurs institutionnels .... ).
L’islamisme est un projet politique qui s’inscrit résolument en faux contre les fondements civilisationnel et normatif des démocraties occidentales, tout en les instrumentalisant au profit d’une stratégie d’érosion graduée. La réflexion d’Emmanuel Macron s’articule autour des principes suivants: 1/ la réaffirmation du récit et du contrat social républicain, de l’intangibilité des institutions, des normes et de la civilité qui les sous-tendent; 2/ la séparation de la religion et de la politique et l’exclusion de toute symétrie entre les institutions républicaines et l’islam, et de toute velléité qui tendrait à positionner l’islam comme source concurrente de législation; 3/ la nécessité de réformer l’enseignement religieux en islam moyennant une lecture critique et historique du canon scripturaire, d’une réflexion philosophique sur les rapports entre foi et raison, la notion de révélation et ses registres notionnel et pratique, les dilemmes du pluralisme religieux et axiologique, et la formation des imams. Cette démarche devrait mettre fin à l’importation des imams des pays musulmans respectifs: Algérie, Maroc, Tunisie, Turquie, Égypte, Arabie Saoudite ..., et au noyautage politique qu’ils pilotent aux interstices de l’espace républicain et des extraterritorialités mutantes de l’islam militant ( voir la réaction d’Erdogan qui refuse de reconnaître la normativité républicaine et ses implications souverainistes, et répertorier les mécanismes de contournement des autres États arabe et musulman ); 4/ Mettre un terme aux financements externes du culte musulman et aux stratégies de pouvoir véhiculaires.
Ces énoncés de principe butent, jusque-là, sur des résistances qui se refusent aux limitations conceptuelle et statutaire de l’islam dans le cadre du pluralisme religieux et de la norme républicaine, des politiques de tutelle islamique qui cherchent délibérément à s’institutionnaliser au cœur du conglomérat institutionnel et des dynamiques politiques occidentales, des controverses idéologique et partisane ( la gauche identitaire et altermondialiste et les souverainistes de tout acabit ) à l’égard du statut de l’islam au sein de la démocratie et de l’exceptionnalité dont il se recommande et qu’il revendique. Il est déjà grand temps de conclure le débat sur une réaffirmation claire de l’exclusivité de la loi républicaine, le refus de toute hétéronomie statutaire et législative se basant sur la loi religieuse et ses fondements scripturaires, et de toute limitation de souveraineté qui émanerait des injonctions de la " Charia " et des politiques d’influence arabe et islamique.
Ce contexte conflictuel cherche à s’installer dans la durée afin de créer de nouveaux rapports de force qui permettraient de changer la donne politique et ses encadrements, et du fait il faudrait s’en défaire, sans vergogne, moyennant des énoncés de principe et des politiques conséquentes. Autrement, les institutions de l’islam de France n’ont pas pour vocation de se poser en intermédiaires entre la république et les citoyens de confession musulmane ( quels que soient la nature et le degré d’appartenance) , de sources de législation symétrique et concurrente, d’encadrement politique ou de relais aux politiques de rivalité inter-musulmanes, ou de confisquer la parole aux citoyens d’origine musulmane, ou professant un libéralisme religieux qui se refuse à tout embrigadement communautaire. Il est déjà temps d’arrêter les termes de ce débat, de mettre fin aux faux dilemmes de l’exception musulmane et ses équivalents fonctionnels en matière politique et législative, et d’imposer la loi et la civilité républicaines comme choix incontournables et non négociables, de réaffirmer les principes de la démocratie libérale et du caractère péremptoire des catégories du " droit naturel " ( Jus Naturalis et Jus Gentium ) et de l’impertinence du droit islamique comme source de légifération. Il s’agit en somme d’intégration à un ordre politique propre aux démocraties occidentales, et non de la création à terme d’un ordre islamique alternatif hautement revendiqué par l’islam militant qui contrôle de grands pans de l’immigration musulmane.

Leftists, Islamists, and Us
Martha Lee/Causeur/W.Islamist Watch/February 20/2020
https://www.meforum.org/islamist-watch/60454/leftists-islamists-and-us
In December, Berkeley College's Islamophobia Research and Documentation Project (IRDP) hosted an event in Paris, titled 'Islam and Politics: the Great Discord.' Participating organizations include Parti des Indigenes de la Republique (PIR), as well as the Collectif contre l'Islamophobie en France, which is aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood.
Berkeley College's IRDP director is Hatem Bazian, a widely-denounced anti-Semite and a key official in America's Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood networks. His counterpart in France, meanwhile, is notorious French Algerian activist Houria Bouteldja, PIR's spokesperson and co-founder.
Bouteldja was extensively criticized in France after the release of her 2016 book, Whites, Jews, and Us. The book, which she presented as an act of "revolutionary love," presents the dismantling of Israel as a priority, praises Ahmadinejad for declaring that there are no homosexuals in Iran, and expresses unambiguous antisemitism.
When France's Left and Right reached the obvious conclusion that her ideas were appalling and denounced her work, Bouteldja claimed to be the victim of a witch-hunt.
Now, despite her severely damaged credibility in France, she has somehow successfully managed to build a new reputation in the United States as an inspiring activist and brilliant academic.
Bouteldja begins her 2016 book by adopting the French nationalist call for the shooting of philosopher Jean-Paul Sartre because of his opposition to French colonial control over Algeria, with Bouteldja wishing he could instead be shot for his Zionism. According to Bouteldja, Sartre "prolonged the anti-Semitic project in its Zionist form and participated in the construction of the greatest prison for Jews."
One of Bouteldja's chapters is addressed to "You, the Jews." She claims that Jews made a deal with the West "to be the weaponized wing of Western imperialism in the Arab world."
Bouteldja recounts that when her Algerian cousin asks who Hitler is, she thanks him for his "precious words," which taught her that "for the South, the Shoah [Holocaust] [...] is nothing but a 'detail.'"
She then generously offers a deal to Jews: if they "lay to rest these ideologies that glorify [them] as supreme victims" and "[..] recognize that Nazism's origins lie in the "trans-Atlantic slave trade and colonialism," then she will ally with them and recognize that the Holocaust "will never be a detail."
Bouteldja announces that former Iranian President Ahmadinejad is her "hero" for his infamous declaration at Columbia University that there are no homosexuals in Iran – Bouteldja called the scene "sublime" and saying she is "exalted" by his words. She attributes denunciations of Ahmadinejad to the fact he was an "arrogant indigenous man" speaking at "a transitional moment in the history of the West: its decline."
In another chapter, Bouteldja states unambiguously "My body does not belong to me." This is not a metaphor. Bouteldja explains that as a child her thigh was scarred with a razor blade during a "patriarchal rite" while her mother cuffed her wrists. Bouteldja welcomes this practice – praising it as an indelible symbol of her belonging "to Algeria, to Islam." Bouteldja praises her ancestors for winning this "game" against France, which is accused of wanting to colonize her body. (This "rite," which still takes place in some rural areas of eastern Algeria, is decried by the majority of Algerian women.)
Several years before publishing the book, Bouteldja defended Toulouse gunman, Mohamed Merah. In 2012, Merah killed three French soldiers, a rabbi and three children at a Jewish school. Merah later said he only regretted "not having claimed more victims." Shortly after the murders, Bouteldja gave a speech where she said "I am Mohamed Merah", cited the evils of "islamophobia" as justification for his actions, and said that he may have been a French intelligence official.
Astonishingly, Bouteldja has enjoyed a great deal of support from American scholars. Harvard academic Cornel West wrote the preface to her book, describing it as a "courageous and controversial act of revolutionary love." According to West, "there is a genuine humility in this book—and its sense of urgency and dire emergency behooves us to wrestle with its rich contents."
In the Los Angeles Review of Books, UCLA PhD student Ben Rastkoff, praises Bouteldja's vision as "remarkably inclusive", even declaring that her ideas "hold[...] tremendous promise for [the] American left." Ratskoff concludes that "we must have the patience to listen to, the tenacity to challenge, and the humility to learn from the work of this colonized woman."
In 2014, Bouteldja was invited by the University of California Berkeley to discuss "The European Extreme Right and Islamophobia: A Decolonial Perspective." At the time, she thanked Islamist Hatem Bazian for his "dedication and commitment", and expressed her hope that "this collaboration between Berkeley and French antiracist circles will continue and grow." With the event in Paris in December, it seems to have done so.
In March 2019, Brown University invited Bouteldja to lecture at its Pembroke Center for Teaching and Research on Women. Bouteldja was introduced as a scholar coming to talk "About White Innocence in General and French Innocence in Particular." While the University stated she will be drawing from her book, Whites, Jews, and Us, no mention is made of the widespread French condemnation of Bouteldja. In fact, Brown University knew of her vile reputation in France, with Ariella Azoulay, the lecturer who invited Bouteldja, claiming that those horrified by Bouteldja's ideas simply didn't "understand" her work.
Today, Bouteldja's book continues to be sold on the website of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where it is described as a "scathing critique of the European Left from an indigenous anti-colonial perspective," calling for "a militant anti-racism grounded in the concept of revolutionary love."
Whites, Jews, and Us has even been assigned to students studying "Post-Colonial Europe" at the University of Texas at Austin.
Bouteldja knows very well that she would never receive such fawning treatment in France and for good reason. In fact, she dismisses French "demonization" of her and her book as evidence of the country's rigidity and "arrogance." In contrast, Bouteldja declares that, "The academic Anglo-Saxon world agrees to be challenged. Because of this, I am considered a voice that must be respected. Cornel West's preface to the English version of my book is very significant from this point of view."
But it is Bouteldja who refuses to be challenged. The "respect" she enjoys outside of France is unthinking servility. When American academics lend credibility to Bouteldja, they support an "activist" who calls for supporters of Israel to be shot, refers to the Holocaust as "less than a 'detail,'" and proclaims her admiration for the hatreds held by theocrats and tyrants. How is it possible that the Pembroke Center for Teaching and Research on Women embraced a "scholar" who celebrates, as an anticolonial statement, a misogynistic tradition of mutilating little girls?
Academics in the United States have lavished praise upon a woman whose hateful statements marked a rare consensus in France in which all political wings overcame their differences to condemn her extremism. In the United States, it is perfectly acceptable to offer Bouteldja a platform; but it is outrageous to provide that platform, disseminate her works and preface her books, without offering the slightest challenge to her hatreds.
*Martha Lee is a research fellow at Islamist Watch, a project of the Middle East Forum.

The Real Winners of the Afghan Election: The Taliban
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/February 20/2020
Of the country's 9.6 million registered voters (among a total population of 37 million), a total of just 1.82 million votes were counted. Of these, Mr Ghani achieved his victory by winning a paltry 923,592 votes, which can hardly be described as a commanding mandate.
The result should serve as a warning to US officials as they enter a crucial phase in peace talks with the Taliban about the organisation's true motives.
Far from having an interest in achieving a negotiated settlement of the long-running Afghan conflict, the Taliban's ultimate goal is to persuade the Trump administration to end its military presence in the country so that it can once again seize control of the country and turn it into a safe haven from which Islamist terrorists can again plot their devastating attacks against the West.
The announcement that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani (left) has emerged as the victor over opposition candidate Abdullah Abdullah (right) in the country's election contest could well prove to be a hollow victory so far as the survival of Afghanistan's fragile democracy is concerned.
The announcement that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has emerged as the victor in the country's election contest could well prove to be a hollow victory so far as the survival of Afghanistan's fragile democracy is concerned.
Declaration of the election's outcome, which took place in September last year, was delayed because of allegations of vote-rigging in the contest, as well as claims that many Afghans did not vote because of intimidation tactics by the Taliban.
Even when the final result was announced this week, with election officials confirming that the 70-year-old Mr Ghani had narrowly claimed victory with 50.64 percent of the vote, the main opposition candidate, Abdullah Abdullah, continued to insist that the contest had been marred by massive fraud and technical problems.
This suspicion has apparently prompted Mr Abdullah, who came second with 39.52 percent of the vote, and after claiming he was the real victor in the contest, to announce that he will form his own government.
The fierce rivalry between Mr Ghani and Mr Abdullah has become a familiar feature of the Afghan political scene ever since the Afghan president narrowly defeated his long-standing rival in the 2014 contest. On that occasion, Washington was eventually able to persuade the two men to set aside their differences and form a government of national unity, whose main goal was to undertake an ambitious reform package spearheaded by Mr Abdullah.
Fresh tensions between the two men surfaced again during the September 28 election contest, though, with Mr Abdullah claiming that the Afghan president had deliberately blocked his reform package, and declaring that Mr Ghani was "not fit" to run the country.
The prospects of American diplomats being able to persuade the two men to enter into a fresh power-sharing agreement again therefore appears to be remote, especially as Washington's prime focus is now being directed towards negotiating the framework of a peace deal with the Taliban, the Islamist terrorist organisation that previously ran the country until it was overthrown by the US-led coalition in 2001 following the September 11 attacks.
U.S. President Donald J. Trump has made it clear that his ultimate ambition is to end America's military presence in Afghanistan at the earliest available opportunity; to this end, he is seeking to negotiate a truce with the Taliban, which would take effect at the end of this month, as a precursor to a fresh round of peace talks.
One of the main stumbling blocks in the negotiations has been the Taliban's refusal to acknowledge the Afghan government, which it claims is nothing more than an American stooge.
Mr Ghani's administration is now likely to face further questions about its legitimacy in the wake of the final election result after the Afghan electoral commission revealed that turnout was also the lowest since the Taliban were ousted in 2001.
Of the country's 9.6 million registered voters (among a total population of 37 million), a total of just 1.82 million votes were counted. Of these, Mr Ghani achieved his victory by winning a paltry 923,592 votes, which can hardly be described as a commanding mandate.
The Taliban must share some of the blame for the low turnout: many voters were dissuaded from casting their ballot after the Taliban militants had threatened to attack polling stations and had targeted election rallies before polling day.
Nevertheless, the result should serve as a warning to US officials as they enter a crucial phase in peace talks with the Taliban about the organisation's true motives.
Far from having an interest in achieving a negotiated settlement of the long-running Afghan conflict, the Taliban's ultimate goal is to persuade the Trump administration to end its military presence in the country so that it can once again seize control of the country and turn it into a safe haven from which Islamist terrorists can again plot their devastating attacks against the West.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Greek Islanders Want Their Life Back
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/February 20/2020
"We want our islands back... We want our lives back!!!" — Posters across Greece's northeast Aegean islands.
The owner of the beautiful tavern... "recollects how the 'refugee business' works... the distance between the Turkish mainland and Lesbos is shortest here (just five miles): "It's 1,500 euros per person and one boat takes up to 60 persons. One boat's turnover is thus 90,000 euros if it travels once a day."
At Moria, the largest camp on the island of Lesbos, 19,000 refugees presently seek shelter at a facility with a capacity of 2,840 people.
In 2016 Ankara and Brussels reached a deal in which the EU committed six billion euros ($6.6 billion) in migrant assistance and a more liberal visa regime for Turkish nationals in return for Turkey stopping migrants from crossing. The deal has not stopped the refugee flow from the Turkish coast. Turkey claims that so far, only about $2 billion has been paid.
"Theloume piso ta nisia mas..., Theloume piso ti zoi mas!!!" echo poster slogans across Greece's northeast Aegean islands, inviting locals to debate the poisoning refugee catastrophe: "We want our islands back... We want our lives back!!!". Pictured: The town theater in Mytilini, capital of Lesbos island, bedecked with a protest banner. (Image source: Burak Bekdil)
Locals are angry. So are the migrants. Tens of thousands of migrants have illegally landed here, on the islands of Greece, since 2015. Some leave, some stay but most wait to be "processed' in the hope of finding their ways into Europe's richer countries, such as Germany.
"Theloume piso ta nisia mas..., Theloume piso ti zoi mas!!!" echo poster slogans across Greece's northeast Aegean islands, inviting locals to debate the poisoning refugee catastrophe: "We want our islands back... We want our lives back!!!" Lesbos, an island situated on the easternmost corner of Europe and neighboring Turkey, is one of the victims that once was a paradise.
There is always the lighter side of things. A tavern owner recalls a 2015 dialogue with a Syrian migrant who had just disembarked from the rubber boat that carried him to a faraway corner of Lesbos after a perilous journey. The refugee arrives at the tavern and, in broken English, asks: "Tell me, quick, where does the train leave for Germany?"
Vangelis Stelianou, the owner of the beautiful tavern "H Mouria tou Myrivili" in Skala Sykamineas at the northern tip of Lesbos, recollects how the "refugee business" works, based on his conversations with hundreds of migrants who usually arrive at the doorstep of his eatery because the distance between the Turkish mainland and Lesbos is shortest here (just five miles): "It's 1,500 euros per person and one boat takes up to 60 persons. One boat's turnover is thus 90,000 euros if it travels once a day."
"Usually the Turkish coast guard boats accompany illegal boats to the shores of Lesbos and leave," Syelianou says, pointing to an August 29, 2019 photo he took, showing half a dozen or so illegal boats just off Skala Sykaminea and a Turkish coast guard boat just behind them.
At Moria, the largest camp on the island of Lesbos, 19,000 migrants are presently seeking shelter at a facility with a capacity for 2,840 people. The total population of Mytilini, the capital of Lesbos, is about 29,000. The result is frustration.
On February 4, Lesbos residents barged into the government office that regulates Aegean and island policy to demand a response from Athens to overcrowding at the Moria camp. "I'll admit that I am not optimistic," Northern Aegean Regional Governor Kostas Moutzouris told reporters after a meeting with residents. The previous day, Greek police in Mytilini had clashed with protesters as they sought to prevent a march of some 2,000 migrants from the camp in Moria from reaching the capital Mytilini.
"It's up to the Turkish government," said one local. "They are deliberately using the migrant card as a bargaining chip with the European Union." In 2016, Ankara and Brussels reached a deal in which the EU committed six billion euros ($6.6 billion) in migrant assistance and a more liberal visa regime for Turkish nationals in return for Turkey stopping migrants from crossing. The deal has not stopped the refugee flow from the Turkish coast. Turkey claims that so far, only about $2 billion has been paid.
In October, Turkey's Islamist president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, vowed to send millions of (more) refugees to Europe if EU countries did not back his proposal to settle them in a Syrian "safe zone." Shortly before that, Erdoğan had threatened the EU with sending "3.6 million refugees (which Turkey hosts) your way". With that threat, Erdoğan is not only imposing Turkey's "nuisance value" on the EU but is also addressing an increasingly angry Turkish population over Syrian migrants. A 2017 survey by Istanbul's Bilgi University revealed that more than 85% of Turks favored the repatriation of migrants residing in Turkey.
What to do? Apparently, there is little to be optimistic about. In an interview with the author, former Greek ambassador to Turkey Ioannis Corantis said:
"It is safe to assume that the flow of refugees -- be they political or simply economic migrants -- will continue unabated, as long as Turkey uses them as a means of pressure on Greece and the EU, in order to promote its own agenda, taking into account the obvious difficulties the Greek authorities have in countering the inflow of migrants through the sea border between the Greek islands in the Aegean and the Turkish mainland."
Corantis also said he thinks that a realistic solution to the problem should consist of two pillars. The first would consist of a set of legislative and executive measures in Greece -- some of which are being already implemented -- in order to improve border controls at sea, speed up procedures for the examination of asylum requests and thus the expulsion or repatriation of all those who see their application denied, heavy penalties for people-smugglers, and a well-organized public information campaign in the countries of origin about the fate of their nationals would be refugees.
The second pillar would consist of an overall settlement agreement between the EU and Turkey -- leaving aside the now infamous and totally ineffective EU-Turkey declaration of March 16, 2016 -- by which EU member states would commit themselves to receive directly, and not through Greece, specific numbers of refugees according to previously agreed criteria. "In exchange," Corantis concluded, "literally, Turkey should receive a financial compensation, as she has already."
Greek islanders want their islands -- and lives -- back. Sadly, they will not have them back any time soon.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Iranian Expansion Reaches Countries of Central Asia
Huda al-Husseini/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 20/2020
Central Asian states are moving. The US wants to withdraw from Afghanistan before Donald Trump’s likely second term. China started moving, but Iran is the one setting traps for these states, which fear the spread of religious extremism. They are poor in everything, from infrastructure to dignified livelihoods. Three years ago Tajikistan was able to shut down 2,000 mosques for extremists, including the largest mosque in Khujand, the second largest city in the country, and turned it into a place to teach tailoring and PE for children, along with a variety of public spaces. In the last three months, dozens of religious scholars and Islamic teachers were arrested after being accused of being members of the Muslim Brotherhood, an illegal group in Tajikistan.
The number of long-bearded men in the country started to decline after they were being harassed by the police, while women wearing hijabs were also sometimes assaulted. Imams give speeches that commend President Emomali Rahmon. These speeches are pre-approved by the authorities, enhancing their Sharia-based efforts without ceasing to repress extremists.
CCTVs were set up in mosques to monitor the Imams’ commitments to the texts given to them. In 2015, the relationship between Tajikistan and Iran became highly unstable as a result of Iran demanding that Tajikistan pay its enormous debts and accusations that a businessman accused of fraud in the Islamic Republic deposited large sums of money in a Tajikistan National Bank. A meeting took place between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the leader of the opposition in Tajikistan.
Saudi Arabia intervened and promised to pump money into infrastructure projects such as the Rogun hydroelectric power plant, highways in East Tajikistan and education. On its side, Tajikistan accused Iran of being involved in assassinating Tajik social and political figures as well as 20 Russian military officers in the nineties during the civil war in Tajikistan.
Since 2016, Russia insisted that Iran will be able to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) led by it and China, but Tehran was not allowed. It seems that the problem is a “blackball” from Tajikistan, which also speaks Persian. It is known that the SCO is not a very important international group, but Iran is in love with it and has been drooling after it for years.
In 2001, the SCO including China, Russia and Central Asian countries excluding Turkmenistan had the main aim to maintain security in the area. In 2017, India and Pakistan were accepted as members, but the door remained shut against Iran. The latter then applied for membership and Russia publicly announced that Iran cannot join while being under sanctions, but it will be accepted the moment these sanctions are lifted. This is what happened in January 2016, and then years passed and nothing happened, with Iran saying nothing about the matter. Last year, Mohammad Rida al-Fargani, a retired Iranian diplomat, said that the problem lies in the tense relations between Iran and Tajikistan. Al-Fargani revealed that Tajikistan’s opposition preventing Tehran from becoming a full member created tensions between the two countries after a banned leader of the Tajikistani Islamic Party officially attended a conference in Tehran in 2015, angering Tajikistan’s government.
In 2017, Tajikistan, a country of 9 million, accused Tehran of sending saboteurs and assassins to the former Soviet state after it got involved in the civil war. Iran, as always, denied these accusations. The tension contributed to Tajikistan shutting down many Iranian centers in the country, and it decided to put restrictions on travel and commerce with Iranian goods in the last few years. Another source of tension was the fate of the imprisoned Iranian billionaire, Babak Zanjani, whose business empire included assets in Tajikistan.
Al-Fargani later said that the last visit by Tajikistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sirodjidin Aslov, to Iran helped resolve some of the disputes between the two countries, which may perhaps eventually lead to the full membership of Iran in the SCO! As Tajikistan and Afghanistan are the only countries that speak Persian other than Iran, the latter has long tried to build cultural relations between the three countries. Cultural ties have become a cover that Iran uses in all countries for security and even terrorist operations in Arab countries.
In reality, more than four years of tense relations between Tajikistan and Iran have paved the way for heating the relations due to logistic reasons.
The low level of disagreement is a result of the fact that Tajikistan like Uzbekistan is a landlocked country, and therefore needs Iranian ports, including those supported by India in Sabhar in the upper region of the Arabian Sea, and the availability of cheaper and faster modes of transportation.
Iran is more interested in Central Asian states than it is with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative and transport infrastructure. The initiative adopted in China to connect European areas with Beijing.
Alongside Tajikistan is Uzbekistan. During the term of the former president, Islam Karimov, and until his death in 2016, the state security services tightened their grip on religious activity to fight extremism.
After being elected, Karimov’s successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, promised to reverse the oppressive policies of his predecessor and to put his government at the service of the Uzbek people.
Mirziyoyev’s reforms included neglecting the religious committee that belongs to the security service, and consequently ending its supervision of religious education, publications and associations. He also dismissed the supervisor without appointing a replacement. He established a Higher Islamic Studies Academy run by the Islamic authorities in Uzbekistan.
During that time, Saudi business delegations visited Uzbekistan twice in the last year to explore investment opportunities. Saudi fabric companies invested two billion US dollars over the next five years in an Uzbek cotton company.
Iran, on the other hand, a vital node in Uzbek imports and exports, remained in Mirziyoyev’s transport infrastructure plans. A decree issued at the end of 2017 was like a key for plans to connect Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Oman, connecting China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, along with three passageways through Afghanistan. The three Afghan passageways use the railway that connects Uzbek Termez with Mazari Sharif in Afghanistan as their starting point. Uzbek plans consist of extending this railway to the city of Herat in Afghanistan and create a branch to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, and Birzagan on the Iranian-Turkish border. The concentration on Iranian ports in Central Asia gains, despite the harsh American sanctions, additional importance with the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, which is supported by China and lies only 70 kilometers away from the coast of Chabahar. However the crown jewel of the Belt and Road Initiative, in the heart of Chinese-Pakistani passageway, faces problems. The China Ocean Shipping company has finally stopped servicing the liner between Karachi and Gwadar due to the shortage of shipments to Afghanistan.
Pakistan wants China's economic satisfaction, and, in order to satisfy China, it did not stop its flights to it and refused to return 500 Wuhanese students and their families to Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus, claiming that this was meant to hinder the spread and transmission of the virus in Pakistan, sparking demonstrations which accused the Pakistani government of being indifferent. For his part, Zhang Baozhong Chairman of the China Overseas Port Holding Company insisted that transit trade is the key to Gwadar’s success.
Last month, the port authorities said that two 20 foot long ships, containing 54 tons of packaged fertilizers were shipped to Gwadar from Karachi so they could be transported to Afghanistan and that plans for initiating the trade of fertilizers are being made.
Will Afghanistan become - if America manages to withdraw and establish what could be called “peace”, though it could be established at the expense of the Afghan people - a central point for China, Pakistani collision and precious Iranian target?

The EU Can’t Widen and Deepen at the Same Time
Andreas Kluth/Bloomberg/February 20/2020
Many things divide the 27 member states of the European Union these days, but one controversy in particular sums up the bloc’s fundamental dilemma. It's over “enlargement,” and specifically whether to formally start accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania. Seething below the surface is the question of whether the EU can, in Eurocrat jargon, keep “widening” and “deepening” at the same time.
Put differently, if the EU keeps admitting new members, whether they’re ready or not, won’t it just become ungovernable and drift apart?
As usual, it fell to French President Emmanuel Macron, who’s earned himself quite a reputation for being undiplomatically honest, to point out this tension. He shocked other EU leaders by blocking formal talks with North Macedonia and also, supported only by Denmark and the Netherlands, Albania. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, among others, was irate; the Balkans were livid. The EU is now scrambling to get him to drop his veto before the European Summit in March.
Two main arguments were hurled at Macron. First, that he was being unfair in failing to recognize how much the two countries have already done to become good candidates. Albania has cleaned up its judiciary and cracked down on organized crime. The other country even changed its name (adding “North”), just to appease EU member Greece, which has a region that argued it had dibs on “Macedonia.” The EU had promised that this would be enough to start negotiating.
Second, Macron was accused of being strategically myopic, just when the EU needs to start thinking “geopolitically.” Russia and China are already extending their tentacles into south-eastern Europe, the latter by financing ports, bridges and rail lines as part of opaque political deals. If the Balkans feel spurned by the EU, they’ll run, rather than walk, into the arms of non-Western autocrats.
All true. But there’s also a good reason for objecting to enlargement: It inevitably gums up integration between the EU’s existing members. Working together was hard enough among the six founding countries back in the 1950s. With each new entrant, it kept getting harder yet, as new languages, political cultures, historical grievances and national interests had to be accommodated. This was true after the UK joined in 1973 (and look where that led) and after the Mediterranean and Nordic expansions later.
The dilemma became especially clear after the two eastward expansions in 2004 and 2007. The same arguments were being used then as now: Not admitting the post-communist nations would have been geopolitical folly, stranding them in the sphere of influence of their former Russian oppressors. And it would have been unfair to people who had long and valiantly struggled for their freedom and yearned to join “the West.”
More than a decade on, however, and some of those eastern members have turned into spoilers of the European project, or worse. Hungary is a quasi-autocracy that proudly calls itself “illiberal.” Poland is actively undermining the independence of its judges and the rule of law, in open confrontation with the European Court in Luxembourg. Both are obstructing any progress in formulating a common European policy for dealing with migrants. In effect, they have rejected the EU’s founding idea of European solidarity in favor of an atavistic nationalism.
Each previous round of enlargement thus introduced new fractures into the EU, some between north and south, others between east and west. Macron is hardly alone in observing that European integration stalled long ago, and that “widening” had something to do with that. In foreign and defense policy, any member state can veto any decision, thus assuring European irrelevance and impotence on the world stage. Bigger ideas like a European army are nothing more than pipe dreams. In the euro area, neither banking nor fiscal union has been completed, thus leaving the currency union prone to another crisis.
All of this is part of thinking geopolitically. Without a euro to rival the dollar, without diplomats or soldiers that Turkey, Russia, China and others take seriously, what good will the EU be in the long run?
On balance, it’s still better to open talks with Tirana and Skopje than to reject them. But the EU must simultaneously confront the bigger dilemma of stalled integration. For that, it has to broach a taboo and talk about a multi-speed Europe.
The idea has been around for decades: Letting some groups of countries integrate faster than others in policy areas they choose. To a large extent that’s already a reality. Only 19 out of 27 EU countries share the euro; 26 members of the so-called Schengen area have completely open borders with one another, of which four (Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein) aren’t even in the EU. And so on.
Why shouldn’t some members (Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, say) now advance to fiscal union, allowing others to join later? Ditto in foreign, defense and migration policy. If the EU as a whole can’t deepen, let parts of it do so.
Some member states, like Poland, have always opposed such a tiered EU, afraid of becoming peripheral and second-class. And yet they claim to be equally worried about ceding more sovereignty to Brussels. But that is the choice inherent in belonging to the EU.
So let’s make the club flexible, with different kinds of membership. Let’s not call them gold, sliver and bronze, but something like deep, medium and shallow. With different tiers come different degrees of integration, obligations and rights. You don’t want to take your share of refugees? Then you get less from the EU budget. You don’t believe in rule of law? Then you lose your votes in Brussels.
In such a flexible EU, parts of Europe could coalesce into powers with geopolitical heft, while other parts retain more independence. This is the only way Europe can deepen and widen at the same time. Who knows? Maybe that’s the kind of EU even the Brits might want to join one day.

Iranian smoke and Palestinian mirrors
Alex Fishman/Ynetnews/February 20/2020
Opinion: Bennett and Netanyahu's election propaganda oversells Israel's might and splendor while underestimating its enemies, but this is the exact same kind of ominous hubris that plagued the country immediately before some of its biggest misfortunes
Iran's grip on Syria is loosening, Israel is the world's eighth leading military superpower, Hamas pines for a long-term agreement with Israel - which leaves the Jewish State no choice but to cut the terror group some slack so we could finally begin to repurpose some of the bomb shelters near the Gaza Strip border. This is just a smidgen of the mumbo jumbo that has been spilling out of our leadership's mouths in recent weeks - and its all election propaganda, of course.
They're trying to create this false pretense of power and depict Israel as an empire. This is the same ominous hubris that plagued the country right before the breakout of the Yom Kippur War in 1973 or the First Lebanon War in 1982. According to what exactly Defense Minister Naftali Bennett has determined that Iran's grip over Syria is loosening?
I highly doubt Israeli intelligence could provide us with a clear situation report on such a sharp change of strategy on Iran's side, just a month after the U.S. assassinated Qassem Soleimani, he head of the elite Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
Some in Israel seem to underestimate Soleimani's heir, Esmail Ghaani, just as they underestimated former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat or Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.
Ghaani's limited political power could lead him to make far more adventurous military decisions.
There is no doubt that the IRGC is currently going through some restructuring.
Another ominous sign for Israel is the appointment of Mohammad Hejazi, the commander of IRGC's Lebanon regiment and one of the captains of its secret precision-guided missile project with Hezbollah, as Ghaani's second-in-command.
The new head of the IRGC's Quds Force Esmail Ghaani
But within a month, Bennett has managed to change the situation in Syria with his breath alone, just as he's done in Gaza.
The leniency that Hamas has been granted in recent days is the bastard child of a fantasy that the State of Israel has conceived in its own collective mind, according to which Hamas has its back against the wall, a situation that opens a window of opportunity for Israel to enforce a deal for long-term calm on the terrorist group.
This fantasy is also the reason behind Bennett's bizarre statement about the ebbing terrorism, which excuses the issuing of thousands of work permits for laborers from Gaza into Israel – under the guise of permits for merchants – without getting anything back in return.
Apparently, two days without balloon-borne explosives flying over our heads means terrorism is subsiding.
We've been hearing stories about how this truce is just right around the corner for the past two years now, but Hamas simply refuses to cooperate.
It doesn't really stop terrorism from the Strip, continues to squeeze Israel's juice with endless rocket fire and refuses to discuss the return of captives and bodies of soldiers who fell in Gaza.
Hamas is the one putting the pressure on Israel and not the other way around.
Don’t believe me? The day Israel issued thousands of additional work permits and extended Gaza's fishing zone – Islamic Jihad snipers celebrated the occasion by opening fire at IDF troops.
However, the biggest bluff of all is Netanyahu's claim that Israel is the world's eighth most powerful country.
This is the second election campaign in a row he's been using this same manipulation.
He took his data from an annual survey by US News & World Report based on the answers of more than 21,000 people ranking 80 countries on a range of issues, including power, cultural influence, economy and entrepreneurship, with the categories adding up to an overall “best countries” ranking.
Since it's highly unlikely all of the thousands of participants have visited or studied the numerous countries in question, this survey essentially examines a country's image in the eyes of the world.
As far as the image of Israel's military strength goes – it was ranked second in the world by the participants, after Russia but before China and the U.S.
The prime minister is not using this data to make a fool of himself. When weighing in further variables such as international influence, political stability and other factors – Israel drops to eighth place.
However, when we add up the rest of the variables into the equation, such as quality of life, economy, mobility, cultural influence, and more – Israel plunges to 29th – five spots lower than before Netanyahu took office.
It's worth noting that leading research institutions around the world actually point out a decline in Israel's military strength over the last decade.
While this false data serves as election propaganda, it may beget complacency, undervaluing the enemy and poor preparation.

Reformist-Hardline Rivalries Dull Iran’s Parliament Elections
Banafsheh Keynoush/The Washington Institute/February 20/2020
On February 21, Iran will hold elections for the 290 seats of its parliament, the Islamic Consultative Assembly. Facing a hardline-led state campaign to disqualify their candidates from seeking seats, most reformist candidates have retreated from trying to compete in the elections—despite the fact that the reformist coalition in the current parliament holds a plurality of seats in the current session. Confident of their own victory, Iran’s hardliners are attempting to demonstrate unity and present themselves as a vibrant alternative to the reformist camp. Still, reformists are battling to stay relevant in the elections, while hardliners do indeed face disunity within their ranks.
The final list of candidates to run in the parliamentary elections was scheduled to be announced around the anniversary of the victory of Iran’s Islamic Revolution to build some momentum for the elections. But public support for the elections on the eve of voting still seems to be lacking. Regardless of the rate of participation, the outcome of the parliamentary elections is likely to shape the key trends already visible within Iran’s reformist and hardline camps.
Reformist Camp: To Run or Not to Run?
For this election, reformists are facing a particularly steep barrier: the mass disqualification of many of their candidates from seeking election. This step by the hardline Guardian Council—in charge of vetting the candidates—points to a campaign led by hardliners seeking to take over the Parliament. Compared to the last parliamentary elections four years ago, nearly three times as many candidates have been disqualified from running for parliamentary seats.
The Guardian Council disqualified a remarkable 90 current members of Parliament, nearly one-third of its ranks. Most of these parliamentarians were reformists, though the Guardian Council rejected charges that it had disqualified candidates based on their political orientation. Instead, the Council claimed most of those disqualified had pending financial corruptions charges against them, which they were informed of in letters sent to them by the Council.
As a part of these disqualifications, reformists also face an uphill battle in maintaining voter confidence given that the disqualifications are instead couched in the language of corruption and nepotism charges. For example, President Hassan Rouhani’s son-in-law Kambiz Mehdizadeh has been disqualified on potential charges of nepotism in his business dealings and for his familial connection to Rouhani. Rouhani has indirectly contested this disqualification without naming Mehdizadeh in person, which has led the Guardian Council to criticize the president for contesting this disqualification and similar ones against other reformists. Meanwhile, Rouhani has mocked the Council’s vetting process, and called the upcoming election just a formality. Rouhani has also tried to pass a referendum bill to amend legislation that allows the Council to only selectively vet candidates in early February, but with no success thus far.
Reformists seem dismissive of concerns that their voter support-base will buy into the corruption charges. Instead, they challenged the legal disqualification of their candidates at the Interior Ministry of Iran. But this still does not solve the issue that they are lacking candidates to run; the deadline for the reversal of the disqualifications passed, and the Guardian Council is saying that it will not issue re-qualifications for candidates that were vetted out.
And while some 80 reformists did file complaints with the Council to contest their disqualifications, key reformist figureheads like Mohammad Reza Aref, who heads the Hope faction in parliament, opted not to run in the elections. The Supreme Council of Reformist Policymakers, which includes at least ten factions, is said to have lost interest in the elections altogether, and did not immediately put forward a list of candidates to compete in the race. This has pushed some reform factions to forward their own list of candidates for the elections.
A number of prominent reformists are insisting on participating in the elections, including the Executives of Construction leader and former Tehran Mayor Golamhossein Karbaschi, the National Confidence faction leader Elias Hazrati, and the Islamic Society of Teachers’ leader Davood Mohammadi. In particular, recently formed populist reform factions that emerged in the fray of these elections are also trying to run, including the Sacrificers’ Association led by Javad Imam, women’s groups, and professional groups such as the Medical Science Association and the University Professors’ Association.
Yet the reformist candidates most likely to win seats in the next elections are seen as intermediaries, aiming to build future coalitions with hardliners. These include the Popular Rule’s leader Mostafa Kavakebian, the Labor House leader Alireza Mahjoub, and the Voice of Iranians leader Sadegh Kharrazi. Many of these reformists will rally around party figures like Majid Ansari, a deputy for parliamentary affairs who served Rouhani, but as a member of Iran’s state-run Expediency Council has experience working with the hardliners.
Other reformists still reject the idea of building coalitions with hardliner factions. One such group, the Coalition for Iran, favors building inner-party alliances. Moving forward, many staunch reformists argue they must revive their camp with help from a younger and defiant generation, and by including figures such as Emad Bahavar, who registered for the elections but previously received and served a 5-year prison sentence from the hardliners. Bahavar was sent to prison after taking part in the post-election protests in 2009 and on charges of joining the Freedom Movement and heading its youth wing. He and other reformists have threatened to withdraw the list of their party candidates, even if they were qualified, from the elections—demonstrating the complicated politics for reformists of even participating in the elections this round
Other disgruntled reformists fear being marginalized by the hardliners in Parliament—a faction estimated to represent only 15 percent of Iran’s society. And while hardliners have accused the reformist bloc for Iran’s recent protests, the prominent reformist strategist Ali Shakouri-Rad insists that the frequent nationwide protests in Iran against the government are led by economically marginalized groups that form the hardliner’s voter-base, not the middle and upper middle class Iranians who mainly support the reformists. Even so, some reformist strategists say their future will depend on how quickly they can leave party ranks and join forces with the people of Iran to create a movement for change across the country—outside the confines of parliamentary elections altogether.
The Rising Unity of the Hardline Camp
In contrast to reformers’ frustrations with this year’s elections, Iran’s hardliner politicians are united in believing that Iran’s frequent anti-government protests result from Rouhani’s failure to expand economic opportunities for the masses, opening a window for hardliners to take control of the parliament. Hardliners are also facing fewer barriers to participation in the elections; only four of 64 principlists—generally conservative hardliners—were disqualified on charges that cannot be legally revealed under Iran’s election laws. Two of those disqualified included moderate principlists Ali Motahhari and Mahmoud Sadeghi, who were willing to work with Rouhani supporters including the Moderation and Development faction in parliament. It is speculated that this disqualification occurred due to their vocal opposition to unfair state practices.
Thus, tomorrow’s voters have many options when it comes to hardliner candidates. The velayee principlist faction, which dominates the hardline camp, promotes full allegiance to the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The paydari front, with nearly two dozen registered candidates, follows the ultra-conservative cleric Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi as its spiritual guide, though this faction is politically disliked by other hardliners for demanding a stronger political platform and due to their insistence on nominating a disproportionately large 60 candidates for Parliament.
Other principlists have tried to revive electoral excitement in their camp through a more progressive conservative political agenda. These include the Progress, Welfare, and Justice faction, which claims to offer an innovative vision for change by supporting young and pure revolutionary candidates to build momentum for growth and development. Other factions following this strategy include the Islamic Revolution Youth, the Society of Young Progressives, and the iranzameen Islamic Party.
Conversely, hardliners have also seen the return of old political figureheads who are attempting to lead the principlist camp, including former Mayor of Tehran Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Both men aspire to run in Iran’s next presidential race in 2021, but some hardliners say that Iran’s society, under immense hardships, will not be interested in bringing back to power familiar political figures.
Still, Qalibaf has registered for the parliamentary elections, hoping to become the legislative body’s next speaker by forwarding a list of 30 candidates for his Proud Iran faction. He also boasts a strong professional track record, having served as Tehran’s former mayor and as the current Economic Commission Deputy at the Expediency Council. But he too faces corruption charges—this time fielded by the reformists. Qalibaf has dismissed these accusations, stating that they are the result of the many people who want to compete with him and envy him. He supports the progressive conservatives, otherwise known as the neo-principlists, who aim to help hardliners adapt to the needs of a younger generation. His faction of 30 has 18 candidates under the age of 45.
Ahmadinejad will not run in the parliamentary elections, but nearly two dozen of his former Cabinet members and ministers, mid-level managers, and governors who support him have registered to run for Parliament, forming a new bloc called the People’s Coalition in order to win more seats.
Given the internal competition within the hardliner camp, some factions are nevertheless presenting a united front. The Coalition Council of the Islamic Revolution Forces, an umbrella group aiming to unite the hardliners, has forwarded the first list of 159 candidates, including a list of the top 30 to run for seats in the capital Tehran. In early February, the council gathered some 7,000 members virtually to compile a final list of 90 top candidates, and another top 10 candidates for key seats to ensure victory. But the council only has so much control over all of Iran’s hardline factions. It has warned factions not to be complacent or divided during the elections, but tomorrow will show whether or not this warning is heeded.
The ferocity of reformist-hardline competition to shape the next parliament has dominated the political debates inside Iran and has obfuscated views of popular opinion about the elections. Historically, potential voters facing the immense hardships that now plague Iran can give them cold feet when it comes to placing their hopes in the electoral process. Still, voter turnout is expected to be around 50 percent, slightly lower than the 2016 elections. But more importantly, there is no indication yet that a parliament dominated by hardliners—the likely outcome of these elections—will have a strong platform that can introduce the needed changes in Iranian society. Hardliners may achieve a hollow victory unless they are both united and able to offer real, workable policies that quickly alleviate Iranians’ social and economic hardships.
*Dr. Banafsheh Keynoush was a Visiting Fellow at the King Faisal Center for Islamic Studies and Research in Saudi Arabia, and has spent time in Iran as visiting researcher. She is a Visiting Scholar at Princeton University and Non-Resident Scholar at the International Institute for Iranian Studies. She is the author of “Saudi Arabia and Iran: Friends or Foes?” (Palgrave Macmillan, 2016; Arabic edition, Dar AlSaqi, 2017; Persian edition, Zarir Publishing 2017).
*Fikra Forum is an initiative of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The views expressed by Fikra Forum contributors are the personal views of the individual authors, and are not necessarily endorsed by the Institute, its staff, Board of Directors, or Board of Advisors.​​

Iranians’ desire for true democracy should be supported
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/February 20/2020
So-called parliamentary elections will be held in Iran on Friday for the 290 seats of the country’s “Islamic Consultative Assembly.” Given the recent popular protests and uprisings, as well as the mounting crises the regime is facing, this year’s election is different and could be a prelude to greater changes, including the downfall of the regime itself.
Democratic and free elections do not exist in Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Guardian Council that he controls hand-pick the candidates on the basis of their “heartfelt” and “practical” allegiance. All prospective candidates have to go through a rigid security and intelligence screening process to ensure they are adherents of the regime.
Four institutions are charged with approving the candidates: The Ministry of Interior, state security forces, the local branch of the judiciary, and the Ministry of Intelligence. These bodies examine every aspect of each individual’s background to ensure there are no links to banned opposition groups, for example.
The names of successful candidates are then submitted to the Guardian Council, which consists of 12 members: Six mullahs appointed by Khamenei and six jurists nominated by the head of the judiciary, who himself is directly appointed by and reports to the ayatollah.
The Majlis elections are seen as a barometer of the balance of power between vying factions in the regime’s internal structure. Although it has mainly financial motivations, the rivalry is often portrayed in Western media as a struggle of policy ideas between “moderates” and “hard-liners.” This narrative benefits Khamenei, who banks on the West’s appeasement and has amassed all sorts of concessions throughout the three decades he has been at the helm.
Both factions, the so-called moderates and the hard-liners, are equally committed to the regime’s survival. Both endorse human rights violations and the repression of protests, and support the Assad dictatorship in Syria and the Iranian-backed terrorist proxies and militia groups in the region.
Still, this year, Khamenei has decided to prevent the moderate faction’s members from controlling the assembly. Why?
The Iranian regime is facing unprecedented challenges. At home, major uprisings have shaken the mullahs’ dictatorship to its foundations, and the economy is in freefall. Regionally, Tehran lost Qassem Soleimani, their terror master and top general who was in charge of executing Khamenei’s regional plans, while protests continue in Iraq and Lebanon against the Iranian regime’s malign conduct and meddling.
And internationally, the West’s policy of appeasement has received some devastating blows. The regime is now being more firmly held to account for its destructive behavior, although additional steps need to be taken, including the referral of its human rights record to the UN Security Council.
The growing activities of the democratic opposition, particularly the “resistance units” of the main organized opposition movement, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), can be added to this potent mix. Young people are increasingly joining their ranks and hoping to topple the regime. Maryam Rajavi, the NCRI’s president-elect, has called for a wholesale boycott of the elections. She said the purge of the moderate faction’s candidates is a clear sign of the rulers’ retrenchment in the face of surging protests.
There is a growing campaign inside and outside Iran that is calling for the boycott of the so-called elections. In addition to posting on social media platforms, activists are spraying graffiti on walls and distributing pamphlets with slogans such as “My vote is the regime’s overthrow.”
The situation is so horrendous for the weakened regime that it cannot tolerate even the slightest degree of internal dissent. So Khamenei has embarked on a campaign to close ranks and unite his forces against the people. Ironically, to do that, he needs at least a veneer of the people's participation in his sham elections. But they know better than that. Even a semi-official poll indicated that 82 percent of respondents planned to boycott the elections. The regime panicked and removed the poll.
Young people are increasingly joining the opposition’s ranks and hoping to topple the regime.
The Iranian theocracy has reached its end. It is only a matter of time before the people overthrow the regime and establish freedom and democracy in Iran.
By chanting “Death to the oppressor, be it Shah or the Supreme Leader,” and “No to crown, no to turban, the mullahs’ time is over,” the people of Iran have demonstrated that they do not look to the past, but to the future. They are demanding a free republic based on the separation of religion and state, gender equality, and an end to all religious and ethnic discrimination. It is time for the world to recognize the right of the Iranian people to regime change and to side with them and their true democratic aspirations.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is an Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Key energy players take advantage of IEF forum
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/February 20/2020
The International Energy Forum (IEF) this week held three days of meetings in Riyadh. On Tuesday’s opening day, experts discussed energy transition and the role of renewables in the context of the EU; comparing Europe’s approach with those of other regions, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council economies.The second day was the highlight, comparing the energy outlooks of the IEA and OPEC. It included a brilliant and very personal address by Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman. Prince Abdul Aziz was instrumental in the creation of the IEF, which was formed nearly 20 years ago, when oil consumers and producers were barely on speaking terms and transparency was sorely lacking in the oil and gas sectors. The IEF has provided a neutral forum for discussion ever since then. Its analytical work dealing with data integrity in the upstream sector, or Joint Organizations’ Data Initiative (JODI) for oil and gas, is highly acclaimed for its objective approach. Indeed, many Wall Street analysts use JODI as a reference benchmark.
The highlights of the IEF calendar are the ministerial meetings. In terms of access and possibilities for dialogue, several energy company executives put the usefulness of these meetings on a par with attending the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
The third day was dedicated to a dialogue between the IEF, the International Renewable Energy Agency and the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center. The aim was to discuss the role renewables and new technologies play in energy transition. A great deal of emphasis was given to the concept of the circular carbon economy, which is designed to reduce, renew, recycle and remove carbon. It has been presented by Prince Abdul Aziz at several forums and been well received. The IEF gave technical and financial experts an opportunity to discuss the concept at the strategic and technical levels.
In these times of energy transition, the IEF has morphed into an important venue for frank, off-the-record conversations about the direction of the energy sector.
A well-known proverb states, “May you live in interesting times.” But there is some good and some bad about interesting times. Energy transition is the epitome of interesting times. While there is a near-global consensus that the world needs to move to reduce emissions and that we need to keep global warming to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the approaches of how to get there differ greatly from country to country and from region to region.
The three days of meetings were held under the Chatham House Rule, which means that the discussions cannot be reported on in detail and cannot be attributed to any speaker or organization. This was very important because it allowed experts to air their views freely without fear or favor. Energy transition is highly charged, politically speaking. The green agenda has taken over the political discourse in many European countries, and certainly at the EU level, with the new commission president’s “European Green Deal.” In many other countries, such as Saudi Arabia, renewables also play a big part in the future of energy policy. Elsewhere, energy companies and policymakers grapple with what it means for them, their societies and their shareholders.
The IEF has morphed into an important venue for frank, off-the-record conversations about the direction of the energy sector.
There is no one silver bullet to solve the conundrum and provide clean and affordable energy for all. It is important for policymakers, energy companies, the financial community, technologists and academics to discuss these issues in a safe environment. The IEF meetings provided such an environment. It was interesting to see how close many of the major players were in, for instance, forecasting the primary energy demand and supply. At the same time, they were at times far apart in terms of how they wanted to achieve the goal of decarbonizing the economy.
If we are serious about becoming carbon neutral by 2050, while still providing affordable energy for all, we need to convene a broad spectrum of concerned institutions, companies and people and allow them to air their views, as well as canvass a multitude of opinions. The IEF has achieved just that.
*Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources

Skepticism surrounds imminent US-Taliban peace deal
Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/February 20/2020
US and Taliban sources last week announced that they had agreed on a truce. This entailed a seven-day “reduction in violence” on both sides and, once successfully implemented, a peace agreement would be announced. According to news reports, the peace deal will be announced on Feb. 29 and will be followed by intra-Afghan dialogue between the government and the Taliban from March 10.
The truce announcement and the proposed agreement mark the culmination of a six-month-long US diplomatic effort to finalize a deal with the Taliban that would allow the withdrawal of the 12,000-strong US military presence in Afghanistan before the presidential election in November.
The US-Taliban deal calls for a nationwide cease-fire, the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners in government custody, a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops, and a commitment by the Taliban not to harbor Al-Qaeda elements in their territories. The Taliban will also be required to dismantle their facilities in Pakistan and participate in anti-Daesh operations. The US has clarified that its troop withdrawal is linked to the Taliban delivering on their commitments.
Subject to the Taliban adhering to the cease-fire, the US will withdraw about 3,500 personnel over the next four months, leaving about 8,600 troops in the country. The agreement is said to have secret annexures relating to US-Taliban counterterrorism activities and monitoring procedures to ensure that the various parts of the agreement are being adhered to by all sides.
Domestic factionalism, foreign interventions and unrestrained violence on all sides have marked Afghan politics since the entry of Soviet forces into the country in 1979. The Taliban appeared on the Afghan military landscape in the early 1990s, when the country’s warlords and political groups failed to agree a power-sharing deal after the Soviet withdrawal. This group had taken control of most of Afghanistan by 1996 and set up the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.” It soon earned global odium for its obscurantism and wanton cruelty, particularly against women.
The “Emirate,” closely affiliated with Al-Qaeda, was destroyed by US military action after the 9/11 attacks, but its cadres came back into the country to fight foreign occupation. The US led an international coalition against the Taliban that, at its peak, had more than 100,000 soldiers. However, battle fatigue caused by a lack of success eroded the enthusiasm of these troops, leading to a significant drawdown in force levels, leaving the Taliban to now control more than 40 percent of the country.
Recent US reports have revealed that American leaders had grandiose plans for the country — the destruction of extremism and establishment of a democratic order and human rights — but had no clear strategy to achieve this ambitious vision, despite the expenditure of nearly $1 trillion. Overall, as Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution has said, the US presence has been “marked by tragedy, frustration, many failures, and a general sense of disappointment.”
What has continued unabated is violence. Since 2016, there have been 11,000 casualties in the country every year, a third of them children. In 2019, the US dropped nearly 7,500 bombs on Afghanistan — an eight-fold increase since 2015. There were nearly 2,500 civilian deaths in 2019, caused equally by the Taliban and pro-government forces, including the US.
This violence on both sides has been aimed at obtaining improved leverage in the ongoing negotiations: The US seeking to pressurize the Taliban to be more accommodative, the Taliban displaying their military prowess. Ordinary Afghans have paid a horrendous price for this mutual oneupmanship.
There is now a natural skepticism surrounding the prospective US-Taliban agreement. It is likely that, with a temporary cease-fire, the Taliban will give the Americans what they desperately want — to get out of the country. The Taliban will then deal with the weakened Afghan government and pursue their agenda of territorial expansion.
Violence on both sides has been aimed at obtaining improved leverage in the ongoing negotiations.
The forthcoming government-Taliban dialogue is also fraught with grave uncertainty. As of now, the Taliban do not even recognize the Ashraf Ghani government and will not negotiate with its official representatives. Even if some form of engagement were to occur, the Taliban are likely to insist on an interim government, of which they are a part, and the preparation of a revised constitution that reflects at least some of their views and values. The Taliban are no longer a monolithic entity; they are divided into mutually competing “shouras,” which are backed by different external entities — some of them are hard-liners and are reluctant to give up the Taliban’s maximalist agenda and the use of violence to attain it.
Yes, Trump does want his boys home from Afghanistan, but they will leave behind a sordid mess.
*Talmiz Ahmad is an author and former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE. He holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies at the Symbiosis International University, Pune, India.