LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 17/19
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the
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Bible Quotations For today
Let anyone who is thirsty come to me, and let the one who
believes in me drink
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 07/37-44: “On the last day
of the festival, the great day, while Jesus was standing there, he cried out,
‘Let anyone who is thirsty come to me, and let the one who believes in me drink.
As the scripture has said, “Out of the believer’s heart shall flow rivers of
living water.” ’Now he said this about the Spirit, which believers in him were
to receive; for as yet there was no Spirit, because Jesus was not yet
glorified.When they heard these words, some in the crowd said, ‘This is really
the prophet.’ Others said, ‘This is the Messiah.’ But some asked, ‘Surely the
Messiah does not come from Galilee, does he? Has not the scripture said that the
Messiah is descended from David and comes from Bethlehem, the village where
David lived?’ So there was a division in the crowd because of him. Some of them
wanted to arrest him, but no one laid hands on him.”
Titles For The Latest
English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on February 16-17/19
Israel Knows We Can Invade and It Can't Attack Us, Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah
Says
Hizbullah Denies US Charges it Has Cells in Venezuela
Lebanon: Hariri’s Cabinet Wins Vote of Confidence
Hezbollah Apologizes for Insulting Presidents Gemayel, Aoun
Aloula-Zarif Tussle: Lebanon Will Not Be Abandoned to Iran
Army Captures IS Emir in Hermel
Guidanian: Measures Taken to Prevent Exploitation of Gulf Tourists
Firouznia: Iran Reiterates Support for Resistance, Lebanese Unity
Judge Says Abu Diab Not Killed by ISF, Tawhid Party Slams 'Political' Report
Sayegh: No One Can Take Bachir's Place in History
Hankache: Kataeb Withheld Confidence Because of Government's Empty Promises
State Incurs Exorbitant Penalty Cost Due to Delayed Fuel Unloading
The Iranian-Hizballah crash program for converting 14,000 medium-range Zelzal 2s
into precision-guided missiles is struggling. But 250 are still a threat.
Is Lebanon next geopolitical battleground between US and Russia?
Hezbollah is a dominant force in Lebanon’s new cabinet
Litles For The Latest
English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 16-17/19
Five killed as gunman opens fire at Illinois warehouse
Pence: Iran is the leading state sponsor of terrorism in the world
Poland summons Israeli ambassador to clarify Netanyahu Holocaust comments
Iran confirms second failed satellite launch
Merkel: US pullout from Syria risks boosting Russia, Iran influence
Egyptian Party Members Resign in Row over Constitutional Amendments
SDF Expels ISIS from Last East Syria Stronghold
Egypt: Seven Militants Killed, 15 Soldiers Dead or Wounded in North Sinai
20 Palestinians Hurt in Gaza Border Clashes
Erdogan dubs Macron a ‘political novice’ over Armenia issue
Maduro reveals secret Venezuela meetings with US
Kim Jong Un to arrive in Vietnam on Feb. 25 ahead of Trump summit
Turkey Has Not Revealed all About Khashoggi Killing, Says Erdogan
French to Mark Three Months of 'Yellow Vest' Protests
Titles For The Latest
LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
February 16-17/19
The Iranian-Hizballah crash program for converting 14,000 medium-range Zelzal 2s
into precision-guided missiles is struggling. But 250 are still a threat/DEBKAfile/February
16/19
Is Lebanon next geopolitical battleground between US and Russia/Terrance J.
Mintner/The Media Line/Ynetnews/February 17/19
Hezbollah is a dominant force in Lebanon’s new cabinet/Rami Rayees/The Arab
Weekly/February 17/19
Sweden Prosecuting Pensioners, Welcoming ISIS/Judith Bergman/Gatestone
Institute/February 16/19
Yemen's War Is a Mercenary Heaven. Are Israelis Reaping the Profits/Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/Februar
16/19
Warsaw: A Step to Deter Iran/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/February 16/19
Only an independent Iraq can bottle Iran up/Tallha Abdulrazaq/The Arab
Weekly/February 17/19
Saudi-Moroccan relations are not helped by silence/Mohamed Kawas/The Arab
Weekly/February 17/19
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published on February 16-17/19
Israel Knows We Can Invade and It Can't
Attack Us, Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah Says
Jack Khoury/Haaretz/February 16/19/Hassan Nasrallah claims Middle East-themed Warsaw summit was
meant to promote normalization with Israel and isolate Iran, but failed Israel
is aware that Hezbollah militants are capable of invading the Galilee, the
group's secretary general Hassan Nasrallah said Saturday. Nasrallah asserted
that Israel's enemies are much better armed than in the year 2000, and that the
Israeli military's high command knows it cannot launch an attack on Lebanon. He
also said that "the Zionist enemy does not trust its military." Hezbollah's
leader also said that this week's Middle East-themed conference in Warsaw was
meant to unite countries against Iran and to publicly normalize relations with
"the Zionist enemy," but that "nothing came of it except for statements to the
media.""We must deal with the normalization process with Israel, and this is the
responsibility of the Arab and Islamic world, and they must express their
opposition and wrath against this process, because the Palestinian people are
sacrificing themselves daily."Nasrallah said last month that he was "surprised"
Israel took so long to discover tunnels stretching into Israel, which UN
officials say violate a cease-fire resolution that ended a devastating war
between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. The Hezbollah chief also told Israelis to
"tell Netanyahu he is better off with Hezbollah with precision missiles, because
if the day comes when we want to attack a military base in Tel Aviv," possibly
referring to the Israel Defense Forces headquarters in the center of the city,
"we'd be able to hit it, but if there's a 50-meter or 100-meter deviation, where
would it fall then? On people. It's in their (Israelis') interest that we have
precision missiles."Unveiling Hezbollah's tunnels "doesn't even affect 10
percent of our plan to take over the Galilee, if we decide to go ahead with it,"
he said. "And even if they did destroy the tunnels, can't we rebuild
them?"Earlier this month, the Israeli army announced the end of Operation
Northern Shield, which it launched in early December, saying "the threat posed
by the tunnels has been eliminated" after six tunnels crossing into Israel were
found. More tunnels that do not cross into Israel were discovered, the army said
Hizbullah Denies US Charges it Has Cells in
Venezuela
Associated Press/Naharnet/February 16/19/Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah has denied U.S. assertions that it has cells in Venezuela saying the
Latin American nation "does not need them."Nasrallah said in a speech Saturday
that his Iran-backed group is in "solidarity with the political leadership and
state of Venezuela against the American aggression." Nasrallah added that his
group does not have influence in Venezuela nor does it have cells operating
there. Venezuela has plunged deeper into political chaos following by the U.S.
demand that President Nicolas Maduro steps down a month into his second term,
which the U.S. and allies consider illegitimate. U.S. Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo said last week that "Hezbollah has active cells" in Venezuela and
"Iranians are impacting the people of Venezuela and throughout South America."
Lebanon: Hariri’s Cabinet Wins Vote of
Confidence
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 16 February, 2019/Lebanon's parliament gave Prime
Minister Saad Hariri’s government the green light to start working with a vote
of confidence on Friday after televised sessions that included heated debates.
Late Friday, 111 legislators voted in favor while six voted against of the
128-member legislature. Eleven were absent. Votes of no confidence came from the
Kataeb party’s three MPs, in addition to lawmakers Paula Yacoubian, Jamil al-Sayyed
and Osama Saad. Hariri, who began the meetings Tuesday by reading his cabinet’s
policy statement, said the government will prioritize economic reforms needed to
bring Lebanon's massive public debt under control. “We promise you that all our
work will be to achieve economic revitalization so you may have a dignified life
in your country,” the PM said ahead of the vote. The government was agreed this
month following a nine-month wrangling over the make-up of the cabinet. The
reforms the government plans to pursue could be "difficult and painful", but are
required to avoid a worsening of economic, financial and social conditions, its
policy statement said. The cabinet has pledged a "financial correction" equal to
at least one percent of GDP a year over five years, starting with this year's
budget. This would be achieved by boosting revenues and cutting spending,
starting with transfers to the state-run power company, which the World Bank has
said represents a "staggering burden" on public finances. Late Friday’s vote of
confidence capped off a tumultuous week at the legislature which saw harsh
verbal exchanges. Shortly after the last session opened, the leader of
Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammad Raad, apologized on behalf of his
bloc for lawmaker Nawaf Mousawi’s controversial comments at Wednesday’s session
about slain former President-elect Bashir Gemayel. A war of words erupted
between Mousawi and Kataeb MPs after the lawmaker said he was proud that
President Michel “Aoun was brought to the presidency by the rifle of Hezbollah
and not on the back of an Israeli tank like others.” This was in reference to
Bashir Gemayel.
Mousawi made the remark after a heated dispute with Kataeb lawmakers Nadim and
Sami Gemayel over Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon.
Hezbollah Apologizes for Insulting Presidents Gemayel, Aoun
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 16 February, 2019 /During Friday’s Parliament
sessions to discuss the ministerial statement ahead of granting the new
government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri a vote of confidence, Hezbollah
apologized for insults launched by one of the party’s deputies against late
President Bashir Gemayel and President Michel Aoun. "The words uttered
(Wednesday) stemmed from instant personal reaction by one of our brothers, and
they exceeded the limits set for our usual rhetoric. I apologize and ask, on
behalf of the bloc Loyalty to Resistance that these words be crossed off the
minutes of the session,” said the head of Hezbollah’s Loyalty to Resistance
bloc, MP Mohammad Raad, during Friday’s Parliament session. On Wednesday, after
MP Sami Gemayel recalled a statement made earlier by Foreign Minister Jebran
Bassil who spoke about Hezbollah’s role in bringing Michel Aoun to the
presidential seat, he was interrupted by Hezbollah MP Nawwaf Moussawi, who said
“it honors the Lebanese that President Michel Aoun was elected through the rifle
of the resistance while others reached the presidency on an Israeli tank,”
hinting to former late President Bashir Gemayel. Moussawi’s words dominated the
political scene in Lebanon during the past days, and it prompted the three main
Christian blocs in Parliament, the Phalange Party, the Lebanese Forces, and the
Free Patriotic Movement to call for an urgent meeting and ask for Hezbollah to
fix its mistake. LF MP George Adwan said he made the initiative to cool tension
between the concerned parties after contacting both Bassil and Gemayel and
calling on them to meet. The insults had also affected Hezbollah’s ally Michel
Aoun, prompting FPM deputy Alain Aoun to respond during Friday’s parliament
session. “President Aoun has reached the helm of presidency through a political
agreement, thanks jointly to Hezbollah, the LF, the Mustqbal Movement, and the
Progressive Socialist Party,” he said. Later, both Hezbollah’s allies and
opponents welcomed Raad’s apology. Bashir’s son, MP Nadim Gemayel said in a
tweet: "If apologizing for a mistake is a virtue, recognizing the martyrs of
each other is a sign of patriotism... After today, we must not disagree on the
truth... Bashir was the dream of the people and the martyr of the republic."
Aloula-Zarif Tussle: Lebanon Will Not Be Abandoned to Iran
Beirut - Thaer Abbas/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 16 February, 2019 /Lebanon
witnessed a flurry of diplomatic activity in recent days with Saudi royal court
envoy Nizar al-Aloula and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif paying
visits and the week being capped with the government earning parliament’s vote
of confidence.During a dinner Wednesday thrown by the Saudi embassy in Beirut in
honor of Aloula, American Ambassador to Lebanon Elizabeth Richard was heard
praising his “very important” visit. She also said Washington was looking
forward to cooperating with Riyadh soon in order to support Lebanon. The dinner
had brought together the majority of Lebanese leaderships, except Hezbollah.
Richard’s remarks reflected Arab and international attention to Aloula’s trip,
which will be followed up with meetings between Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon,
Walid al-Bukhari, with western diplomats in Beirut. He is scheduled to hold
talks on Monday with the British and United Arab Emirates’ ambassador to Lebanon
on a number of files at hand now that the government has been formed after eight
months of political wrangling. This western-Arab interest is set to increase in
the coming weeks, revealed Arab diplomatic sources.
It seems that officials want to judge the government on its actions, not its
words, they told Asharq Al-Awsat, meaning that the cabinet lineup and policy
statement were just side issues. Aloula had started his trip by remarking:
“Lebanon has the potential to play a pioneering role in the region. This
potential must be invested primarily in the Lebanese people’s interest.” This
was among a number of messages the envoy sought to deliver to officials the most
foremost of which was Saudi Arabia and the Arab world’s desire to help Lebanon
overcome its difficulties and bolster its institutions.
The second message was that Saudi Arabia stands at an equal distance from all
Lebanese and that it prefers to communicate with the country through its
official channels. This is why the announcement that Riyadh was lifting its
travel ban off Lebanon was made by Bukhari at the Grand Serail following a
meeting with Prime Minister Saad Hariri. The ambassador made sure in his
announcement to relay to Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri the regards of
Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The third
message focuses on the Saudi-sponsored Taif Accord. The Kingdom had organized
Thursday a special forum on the accord that helped end Lebanon’s 1975-90 civil
war. The event was attended by Aloula and Hariri.. The fourth message was Aloula
extending his trip to Thursday in order to take part in the commemoration of the
2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. He stressed on the
occasion Saudi Arabia’s “commitment to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and its
rejection of political assassinations.”The most important message was that
Lebanon will not be abandoned to the Iranians and that its Arab and western
friends want the best for the country. Aloula’s visit came quick off the heels
of a two-day trip kicked off my Zarif on Sunday, leaving the Lebanese to imagine
the diplomatic tussle that had taken place between them in their country. A
prominent Lebanese officials noted to Asharq Al-Awsat the “vast contrast”
between those who offered Lebanon weapons, meaning Zarif, and those who offered
it peace and reform, meaning Aloula. Prior to his arrival in Beirut, numerous
media reports had claimed that Tehran was seeking to propose to the Lebanese
military a missile defense system deal that would “help protect it against
Israeli violations.”Zarif had kicked off his visit by holding talks with Iran’s
allies in Lebanon during a meeting that also included Palestinian and Lebanese
factions that fall under the so-called “resistance front.” He then met with
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah before embarking on protocol meetings with the
president, speaker and prime minister. The surprise came when the minister
failed to seriously address the armament proposal to any of the officials. He
instead said that Tehran was “ready to help Lebanon,” but fell short of
elaborating, explaining that his country had to contend with international
sanctions. In contrast, Aloula’s kicked off his visit through official channels,
meeting with the president, speaker and then the premier.
Army Captures IS Emir in Hermel
Naharnet/February 16/19/The Army Intelligence Directorate arrested at dawn on
Saturday two jihadists one of them an IS Emir in the Bekaa town of Hermel, media
reports said. After closely monitoring and tracking the suspects, the army
arrested one of them in the neighborhood of al-Shawagir and the other in al-Sahl
al-Sharqi. They have trespassed into Lebanon through an illegal crossing a few
days ago coming from Syria’s Deir Ezzour, they said.
Guidanian: Measures Taken to Prevent Exploitation of Gulf
Tourists
Naharnet/February 16/19/Tourism Minister Avedis Guidanian assured that Lebanon
is keen on taking all measures needed to encourage tourists to visit Lebanon,
noting that financial "abuse of tourists” will not be tolerated, Asharq al-Awsat
newspaper reported on Saturday.
“Lebanon does not need to promote to Saudi tourists, or Gulf tourists in
general, because they know well the regions in Lebanon,” Guidanian told the
daily in an interview. He said the focus now is on preventing attempts by some
institutions to “financially exploit the tourists by charging them with
expensive bills.”"Measures have been taken to stop this exploitation. Since 2017
we have allocated a hotline for tourists to be able to report on any attempts,”
added the Minister. With Saudi Arabia lifting the travel ban to Lebanon, the
country is looking forward to a boom in the tourism sector, which is the
cornerstone of Lebanon’s local economy. Saudi Arabia on Wednesday lifted a
travel warning for Lebanon that remained in place for eight years. Most Gulf
countries have also issued travel warnings for their citizens in recent years
amid tensions with Iran and its Lebanese ally Hizbullah.
Firouznia: Iran Reiterates Support for Resistance, Lebanese Unity
Naharnet/February 16/19/Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammed Jalal Firouznia
said that Iran “affirms support for Lebanon’s Resistance and its national
unity,” the National News Agency reported on Saturday. “The Islamic Republic of
Iran reiterates its policy of supporting the Resistance and the national unity
in Lebanon, as well as (maintaining) a constructive communication with all
political parties,” Firouznia said in remarks at a ceremony held by AMAL
Movement commemorating the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in
Iran.Referring to the recent visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad
Zarif to Lebanon, the diplomat expressed Iran's readiness for official
cooperation with the Lebanese government. Iran "is ready to develop bilateral
cooperation with Lebanon in various economic, trade, development, scientific and
defense fields," he went on.
Finally, he pointed out that security in Lebanon was the result of unity and
cohesion, and the result of the golden tripartite formula "the army, the people
and the resistance".
Judge Says Abu Diab Not Killed by ISF, Tawhid Party Slams
'Political' Report
Naharnet/February 16/19/Assistant State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge
Fadi Akiki announced Friday that the gunshot that killed Mohammed Abu Diab
during the Jahliyeh incidents was not fired by the Internal Security Forces. In
a report wrapping up his investigations, Akiki also filed a lawsuit against
persons unknown over the death of Abu Diab, who was one of ex-minister Wiam
Wahhab's bodyguards. Wahhab's Arab Tawhid Party meanwhile issued a statement
slamming what it called Akiki's “political report.”“We will meet in court and no
one will be able to vindicate the security force except the court,” the party
said. “We have an ISF forensic report that says that a U.S.-made bullet struck
the martyr Mohammed Abu Diab from a distance of 320 to 360 meters,” the party
added, noting that the ISF uses bullets of the same caliber (5.56mm) mentioned
in Akiki's report. “Everyone knows and the official licenses reveal that the
guards of ex-minister Wiam Wahhab's house use Russian-made rifles of the 7.67mm
caliber,” the party said. It added that party chief Wahhab will hold a press
conference on Saturday in which he will urge President Michel Aoun, the justice
minister and the state commissioner to the military court to “put an end to
Akiki's farce.”Abu Diab was killed as gunfire erupted during an ISF raid to
inform Wahhab of the need to appear before a court over remarks he voiced
against Prime Minister Saad Hariri.
Sayegh: No One Can Take Bachir's Place in History
Kataeb.org/Saturday 16th February 2019/Kataeb's Deputy-President Salim Sayegh on
Saturday stressed that Martyr President Bachir Gemayel is an unparalleled figure
in the history of Lebanon, saying that no one can fill his place ever again.
"Many have tried to become like Bachir, but no one can take another person's
place in history," Sayegh told Free Lebanon radio station. Asked about reports
claiming that FM Gebran Bassil will be the new Bachir Gemayel or late President
Kamil Chamoun, Sayegh said: "I don't know if Minister Bassil is aware who those
people are and what they represent. I hope he would take the time to read about
such great men and examine thoroughly their achievements."Sayegh noted that
Bassil's political approach and performance make him totally different from the
statesmen who made history in Lebanon, adding that the way he handles things
ushers in an era of political decline. The Kataeb official stressed the need for
the new government to manage the people's affairs with utmost proficiency,
outlining the importance of a real national dialogue that would discuss the
major issues related to sovereignty. "The failure to establish a communication
between political forces is a grave sin," he warned.
Hankache: Kataeb Withheld Confidence Because of
Government's Empty Promises
Kataeb.org/Saturday 16th February 2019/Kataeb MP Elias Hankache on Saturday said
that the party didn't grant its vote of confidence to the government given the
empty promises it has made, expecting it as to be a government of "trenches" and
"obstruction".
“The Kataeb is on good terms with all political forces, but this doesn't mean
that we will ever compromise the principles of sovereignty and independence,"
Hankache said in an interview with Voice of Lebanon radio station. "We will not
accept any new tax hike to be imposed on the citizens. We will confront any
attempt to do so in the street and before the Judiciary as we did before," he
stressed. "We will remain at the service of Lebanon."
State Incurs Exorbitant Penalty Cost Due to Delayed Fuel Unloading
Kataeb.org/Saturday 16th February 2019/Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil has
signed an extra-bugetary spending of LBP400 billion ($267 million) to unload
fuel from two vessels that have been waiting off the Lebanese coast over the
past few days pending the disbursement of the needed funds. However, Al-Joumhouria
newspaper reported, four vessels will stay wait more time given that the
approved spending only covers the cost of two shipments, and involves only fuel
oil, not diesel. Therefore, the Deir Amar and Zahrani power plants, which both
operate using diesel, will further reduce their electricity production until the
diesel-loaded vessels are given the green light to unload their cargo. Once the
other power plants receive their fuel oil supply next week, the power production
will reach again 1200 megawatts (i.e. 10 hours of electricity supply/day). The
approved extra-budgetary spending is expected to meet Electricite Du Liban's
fuel needs until mid-March. Al-Joumhouria newspaper revealed that the State has
been incurring a penalty cost between $20,000 and $30,000 for each day of
delayed unloading, with a total amount reaching $1.5 million for 20 days of
delay. Taking into consideration that four vessels will still wait longer to
unload, the State's treasury will be paying a daily penalty between $80,000 and
$120,000.
The Iranian-Hizballah crash program for
converting 14,000 medium-range Zelzal 2s into precision-guided missiles is
struggling. But 250 are still a threat.
تعثر برنامج إيران-حزب الله لتحويل 14 ألف صاروخ من نوع زلزلة 2 إلى صواريخ موجهة
بدقة ولكن تهديد 250 منهم لا يزال قائماً
DEBKAfile/February 16/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/72244/debkafile-the-iranian-hizballah-crash-program-for-converting-14000-medium-range-zelzal-2s-into-precision-guided-missiles-is-struggling-but-250-are-still-a-threat-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D8%AB%D8%B1-%D8%A8/
On Friday, Feb. 15, Hizballah’s Al Mayadin network released a clip out of the
blue depicting a four-year old incident, in which its forces on Jan. 28, 2015
shot up an IDF mounted border patrol, killing two Israeli soldiers and injuring
another seven. It came, DEBKAfile’s military sources note, just hours after the
IDF’s 401st Armored Brigade completed an exercise.
with air force support that centered on repelling a Hizballah invasion and
chasing the raiders across the order into Lebanon.
The Lebanese terrorist group found three chilling revelations in this drill and
so drew on a past event for bravado. The Israeli exercise featured an elite
armored unit; it used the IDF’s main battle tank, the Chariot Mark 4 (M4)
Windbreaker, which has a strong missile-defense capability and is often rated as
the best tank in the world; and, finally, the exercise concluded with the
Israeli army pursuing the enemy across the border into Lebanon. Those features
told Hizballah that the era of the former IDF chief of staff Gady Eisenkot was
over and his successor Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi realistically contemplated sending
an elite Israeli fighting unit into Lebanon and carrying the battle across the
border in a future conflict.
The Israeli public knows very little about this back and forth. On Dec. 6, 2018,
Binyamin Netanyahu, who doubles as prime minister and defense minister, said:
“This terrorist organization had planned to be armed with thousands of
[precision] rockets, but for the moment they only have a few score.” IDF
Intelligence (AMAN) Maj. Gen. Tamir Hayman put it this way: “Hizballah does not
have the industrial capacity for precision-guidance conversions.”
Neither answered the key questions: “Has Hizballah acquired precision-guided
missiles or not? And if so, how many?
DEBKAfile offers some answers from its own and Western military and intelligence
sources. Hizballah is estimated to have upgraded 90-250 medium-range missiles
for high precision strikes. This is not enough for the full-scale missile war on
Israel planned by Iran and Hizballah. On the assumption that Hizballah fails to
launch 10 percent of this number (for other armies 4 percent is the norm), and
the Israeli Air Force knocks out some of its mobile launch vehicles, “only” 50
of the estimated 250 would land within their radius and reach their targets.
Even then, the fallout would be appalling, given Israel’s densely populated
heartland.
Iran and Hizballah decided therefore to limit the upgrade program to the 14,000
Zelzal-2 medium range missiles contained in the Hizballah arsenal. But that too
has run into major hindrances. They needed to build factories to perform the
process of cutting a section out of the 16-meter long missile to make room for
transplanting a GPS command and navigation gear and a control system, while also
attaching small winglets to the body for changing direction after launch. This
process transforms the Zelzal 2 into a virtual Fatteh110, which has a range of
300km.
These components are manufactured in factories in Iran under the supervision of
the Imam Hussein University in Tehran. Every attempt is being made to smuggle
them to Hizballah by air, sea or the trucks that move between Iran through Iraq
and Syria to Lebanon. It is estimated that although Iran has produced 4,000 of
these components, no more than 500-1,000 have got through to Hizballah’s
warehouses in Lebanon; the rest destroyed by Israeli air and covert operations
striking deep inside Syria and Lebanon.
Another difficulty facing the project has been the need for large halls to house
the missiles and their re-assembly units. However, as soon as some of these
factories began work in Syria and Lebanon, they were razed by Israeli attacks.
Others stand empty after the equipment and components are waylaid by Israel en
route from Iran. That was what General Hayman was hinting at when he said
Hizballah is short of the industrial capacity for converting its missiles into
precision guided weapons.
Hizballah has turned to using small, scattered workshops for this process, at
the expense of output and quality of the product. Cost estimates are also
relevant. The conversion of a rocket is estimated to cost $10,00 apiece. The
entire Zelzal upgrade project set by Hizballah would require a total of $140
million.
Is Lebanon next geopolitical battleground
between US and Russia?
تارنس جي منتر/يداعوت احرونوت: هل لبنان هو ساحة التالية لمعركة جيوسياسية بين
الولايات المتحدة وروسيا؟
Terrance J. Mintner/The Media Line/Ynetnews/February 17/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/72241/is-lebanon-next-geopolitical-battleground-between-us-and-russia-%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%B3-%D8%AC%D9%8A-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B1-%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%88/
Analysis: What happens when Moscow decides to expand its reach in the Middle
East via Beirut? The Kremlin may have offered Syria’s Assad a lifeline and have
praised Hezbollah’s role in keeping in him power, but will the Lebanese, with
their more western outlook, really want to alienate the Americans?
A diplomatic spat has arisen between the United States and Russia over the
former’s policies on Iran and what they could entail for the Middle East.
Alexander Zasypkin, Moscow’s ambassador in Beirut, accused Washington of
inciting “new conflicts” which “could involve many countries as well as ethnic
and religious forces” in the region.
The envoy also championed Iranian-backed Hezbollah—which the US and most Western
nations have designated a terrorist entity—as a legitimate partner in Moscow’s
military intervention in Syria.
“When events started unfolding in Syria, Hezbollah sided with its lawful
authorities, seeing the fight against terrorists in the region as its duty,”
Zasypkin said, echoing the rhetoric of Syrian President Bashar Assad regime,
which labeled all those opposed to it as “terrorists.”
While the war has wound down with the Assad regime victorious, Israel has been
carrying out air strikes to prevent the transfer of advanced weapons from Iran
into Hezbollah’s waiting hands. But Russia has also made clear it will not stand
for “arbitrary attacks on sovereign Syrian territory,” as Deputy Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Vershinin said in a recent interview.
The sharp words coming out of Russia point to Lebanon as the next potential
geopolitical battleground between Moscow and Washington.
“Lebanon has been in this complicated situation for a long time—with powerful
players competing for influence,” says Nicu Popescu, Director of the Wider
Europe Program and Senior Researcher at the European Council on Foreign
Relations.
“It’s obvious that Russia is much more present in the Middle East, but we are
also seeing more outreach from Lebanon which is sending its diplomats more often
to Moscow.
“When it comes to the US we don’t know when the announced troop withdrawal (from
Syria) will be. But I don’t see the US then becoming much more engaged in
pushing Russia out of Lebanon.”
Turning to Israel, Popescu explained that Russia is unlikely to seek stronger
alliances with Iran and Hezbollah, nor ramp up the presence of Iran-backed
groups in Syria and Lebanon, which would risk upsetting Jerusalem.
“From a Russian standpoint, there is sympathy with Israeli desires not to see
too much of Iran in these countries,” he said.
Professor Eyal Zisser, Vice Rector of Tel Aviv University and an expert on
politics in Syria and Lebanon, says that it is “logical from Russia’s point of
view to move forward to Lebanon after establishing itself in Syria.”
But Lebanon is more complicated, he says, because unlike Syria there are more
actors such as Saudi Arabia and other Arab states.
“I wouldn’t call it a ‘battleground’ because even in the case of Syria it is not
that there was a competition. America, for good reasons, gave up,” he says.
“US President (Donald) Trump and former president Barack Obama said very clearly
that they have no strategic interests in Syria. This can also be the case in
Lebanon because it offers very little to the US,” Zisser says.
“A major segment of the Lebanese population is more Western, modern, and enjoys
a high-standard of living. Clearly Russia has nothing to offer here. What did it
give Assad? Only his political survival. But when it comes to economic growth
and prosperity, Russia can offer very little.
“This is why all parties, Lebanon included, understands that when it comes to
standards of living it is important to maintain good relations with the US.”
Robert J. Riggs, Associate Professor of Religion and Politics and a specialist
in Shiite history at the University of Bridgeport, says that Lebanon could see
conflict again, but more likely it would be sparked between Israel and
Hezbollah’s leadership, not between Russia and the US directly.
“Recently, with the conscious policy of maximum pressure on Iran being exerted
by the Trump administration, Hizbullah has been targeted as well. (Prime
Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu’s government has been emboldened to challenge
Hezbollah—destroying the group’s tunnels into Israel—and this is partially due
to the perceived support of the Trump administration.”
However, what has changed from the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah is the
ongoing Syrian civil war, Riggs explained. “For the first time, Hezbollah openly
sent its troops into Syria (then Iraq and Yemen) to fight alongside local
militias and the national army in Syria, bringing them into close proximity to
the Russian military leadership.
“Therefore, it is not surprising that the Russian leadership would praise
Hezbollah, but doing it publicly is something new. Perhaps this can be
attributed to the rising tensions between Russia and the US, and (Russian
President Vladimir) Putin’s opportunism.”
*Article written by Terrance J. Mintner. Reprinted with permission from The
Media Line
Hezbollah is a dominant force in Lebanon’s
new cabinet
Rami Rayees/The Arab Weekly/February 17/19
The Lebanese left supported by Palestinian factions in the 1970s has lost
influence.
In January, Lebanon agreed to a new cabinet after nine months of political
stalemate. The long-awaited government restructured the balance of power in ways
that did not reflect the results of parliamentary elections in May 2018.
Much of this has to do with the compromise that led to the election of Michel
Aoun as president in 2017, which gave undue influence to Hezbollah and its
allies.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil recently stated that, had it not been
for Hezbollah, Aoun — his father-in-law — would not have become president. That
revelation shows just how closely Bassil’s Free Patriotic Movement is aligned
with Hezbollah, even at the expense of other partners, including Prime Minister
Saad Hariri and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, who backed Aoun.
Hariri went against the wishes of his followers when he nominated Aoun as
president and Geagea offered his support, drawing fierce backlash.
Lebanon’s new cabinet is deeply unbalanced, with 18 of its 30 ministers
affiliated with the Hezbollah camp. This raised concerns over the country’s
future and stability, especially as the so-called Axis of Resistance — Iran,
Hezbollah and Syria — claims victory in Syria.
Each time a cabinet is formed in Lebanon, the ministerial declaration — a
comprehensive overview of the body’s policy positions presented to parliament to
gain a vote of confidence — has been delayed due to the tricky issue of
Hezbollah’s control of weapons. Previous cabinets have spent weeks agonising
over the issue, sometimes putting them on the verge of collapse.
However, with the new cabinet, the Lebanese Forces raised only mild opposition
to Hezbollah’s weapons, after which a ministerial statement was unanimously
passed.
Hezbollah officials considered this evidence that a culture of resistance is
entrenched in Lebanese political life and that the previous opposition had lost
ground.
Not only is the cabinet decidedly pro-Hezbollah, it includes ministers with
questionable backgrounds. Saleh al-Gharib, assigned the refugee portfolio, is a
staunch supporter of the Syrian regime and has vowed to do whatever it takes to
push Syrian refugees back into their country, a policy that could jeopardise the
lives of tens of thousands. Such positions, which many consider to be a step
towards normalising relations with the Assad regime, deepened internal divisions
over Lebanon’s relations with Damascus, which recently issued a “terrorist list”
that included Hariri, Geagea and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt.
Lebanon’s political and confessional structure was built on a delicate balance
of power. Each time that balance has been upset, the country has experienced
turbulence. This happened in 1958, in 1968 and, of course, when civil war broke
out in 1975.
The political dynamics in Lebanon are quite different now. The Lebanese left,
supported by Palestinian factions in the 1970s, has lost influence, partly
because of reforms introduced by the Taif Agreement (1989) and new actors, such
as Hezbollah, that have changed the way the political game is played.
Will Lebanon descend into chaos? It’s hard to say given the competing interests
of local and regional stakeholders. What is certain is that the country is as
fragile as it has always been.
*Rami Rayess is editor-in-chief of Lebanese Al Anbaa Electronic Newspaper (anbaaonline.com)
and spokesman for the Progressive Socialist Party in Lebanon.
Latest LCCC English
Miscellaneous Reports & News published
on February 16-17/19
Five killed as gunman opens fire at Illinois
warehouse
Reuters, Aurora/Saturday, 16 February 2019/A gunman opened fire on Friday at an
Illinois manufacturing warehouse, apparently as he was being terminated from his
job there, killing five fellow workers and wounding five police officers before
he was slain by police, authorities said. Aurora Police Chief Kristen Ziman said
the assailant, identified as 45-year-old Gary Martin, had worked at the Henry
Pratt Company for 15 years before Friday’s violence unfolded at the firm’s
sprawling warehouse in Aurora, 40 miles (65 km) west of Chicago. At a late-night
news conference, Ziman said it was not yet clear whether the suspect, who was
armed with a handgun, was carrying the weapon at the time he was being
terminated or whether he “went to retrieve it” before opening fire. The chief
said she lacked any immediate information about whether the gunman had a
criminal history, but public records showed Martin was convicted in 1995 for
aggravated assault in Mississippi. The bloodshed marked the latest spasm of gun
violence in a nation where mass shootings have become almost commonplace. It
came one day after the one-year anniversary of the massacre of 17 people by a
gunman at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. The five
police officers who were struck by gunfire and a sixth employee who was wounded
were being treated at local hospitals and were expected to survive, Ziman told
reporters. She said the five wounded officers were wounded in the first five
minutes of their arrival at the plant, which occupies 29,000 square feet, Ziman
said. She added that no further gunshots were fired until additional police
confronted the suspect about 90 minutes later inside the building, where they
shot him dead. Video on local media showed numerous police cars surrounding a
large commercial building in Aurora, the ground covered in snow.
Pence: Iran is the leading state sponsor of terrorism in
the world
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 16 February 2019/US Vice President
Mike Pence pressed European countries on Saturday to withdraw from a nuclear
deal between Iran and major powers, and urged them to be wary of using telecoms
equipment supplied by Chinese provider Huawei. “The time has come for our
European partners to stand with us and with the Iranian people,” Pence told the
55th Munich Security Conference. “The time has come for our European partners to
withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.”Pence also said that Iran is the leading
state sponsor of terrorism in the world. “The United States has also been very
clear with our security partners on the threat posed by Huawei and other Chinese
telecom companies,” he said. “We must protect our critical telecom
infrastructure and America is calling on all our security partners to be
vigilant,” according to Reuters. Pence also vowed that the United States would
“hunt down” ISIS extremist group even after pulling its troops out of Syria,
where the extremists are facing the loss of their final scrap of land. “The
United States will continue to work with all our allies to hunt down the
remnants of ISIS wherever and whenever they rear their ugly heads,” according to
AFP. He also called on the European Union to recognize Juan Guido as the
president of Venezuela. “All of us must stand with the Venezuelan people until
freedom and democracy is fully restored,” Pence told the Munich Security
Conference. “So today we call on the European Union to step forward for freedom
and recognize Juan Guido as the only legitimate president of Venezuela.”(With
Agencies)
Poland summons Israeli ambassador to clarify Netanyahu
Holocaust comments
Reuters, Warsaw/Saturday, 16 February 2019/Poland summoned Israel’s ambassador
on Friday and threatened to scupper a summit in Jerusalem after reported
comments in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to accuse the
Polish nation of complicity in the Nazi Holocaust. Netanyahu’s office said in a
statement that the prime minister, who was in Warsaw for a US-sponsored Middle
East conference, had been misquoted by The Jerusalem Post, which issued a
corrected story. In a later statement, Netanyahu’s office said that in his
remarks on the question of Polish collaboration with Nazi occupiers, he had not
cast any blanket blame.Poland, where sensitivities over the issue of its actions
during the Holocaust are high, called in Israeli envoy Anna Azari. The matter of
Poland’s conduct during the Holocaust - in which many of the six million Jewish
dead were killed in Nazi camps on Polish soil - was at the center of an
Israeli-Polish diplomatic dispute last year. After an outcry in Israel and the
United States, Poland’s conservative Law and Justice government backed out of
legislation mandating jail terms for anyone suggesting the country had
collaborated with the Nazis.
Testing sensitivities
Sensitivities were tested again late on Thursday after Netanyahu answered a
question about that law posed by one of the Israeli reporters who had travelled
with him to Poland. Israel’s Haaretz newspaper quoted Netanyahu as saying: “The
Poles collaborated with the Nazis, and I don’t know anyone who was ever sued for
such a statement.” Yaakov Katz, the Jerusalem Post’s editor, told Reuters the
account in his newspaper had used the term “Polish nation,” although not in a
direct quote from Netanyahu, and the story was swiftly amended to reflect what
he really said. But Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Szymon Szynkowski vel Sek
said Warsaw wanted the matter “to be clarified unequivocally.”Hours later,
Netanyahu's office issued a second statement. “In a briefing, PM Netanyahu spoke
of Poles and not the Polish people or the country of Poland,” the statement
said. Many Poles still refuse to accept research showing thousands participated
in the Holocaust in addition to the thousands who risked their lives to help the
Jews. Commenting on Netanyahu’s remarks, Polish President Andrzej Duda raised a
question mark over a two-day summit in Jerusalem next week of the four central
European nations - Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Duda said
that if Netanyahu had said what was originally reported, “Israel would not be a
good place to meet in spite of the previous arrangements.” Duda offered his own
presidential residence as an alternative venue. Netanyahu has sought to use the
so-called Visegrad group as a counterweight to western European Union criticism
of Israel’s policies towards the Palestinians.
Iran confirms second failed satellite launch
Reuters, Washington/Saturday, 16 February 2019/Iran’s bid to
launch a second satellite in the past two months has failed, Iranian Foreign
Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in an interview with NBC News published on
Friday. Its effort to launch a satellite last month also failed. Despite both
failures, Zarif's confirmation is likely to raise tensions with the United
States, which is concerned the long-range ballistic technology used to send
satellites into space could also be used to launch warheads. A representative
for the US National Security Council did not immediately respond to a request
for comment. Iran views its space program as a matter of national pride. Tehran
has denied that the space vehicle launches and missile tests violated a UN
Security Council resolution. Last month, Iran said a satellite it tried to
launch did not reach adequate speed and failed. Iran’s telecommunications
ministry said at the time that the satellite, named Payam, was intended to be
used for imaging and communications purposes for about three years. Iran
launched its first domestically-built satellite in 2009, on the country’s 30th
anniversary of its 1979 Islamic Revolution. This month, Iran marked the 40th
anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. Iran’s Foreign Ministry could not be
reached for comment on the NBC News report, which was widely quoted by Iranian
news outlets, including the state news agency IRNA.
Merkel: US pullout from Syria risks boosting Russia, Iran influence
AFP, Munich/Saturday, 16 February 2019/German Chancellor Angela
Merkel warned Saturday that Washington’s plan to swiftly pull its soldiers out
of Syria risks allowing Russia and Iran to boost their role in the region. ISIS
extremist group militants have been boxed in to a scrap of land in the battle
for their last remaining territory in northeastern Syria and their final defeat
is expected imminently. Once they are defeated, US forces are set to soon
withdraw after President Donald Trump in December announced the pullout of
around 2,000 troops. But Washington is struggling to convince allies to stay on
in Syria after it leaves and Merkel warned of the risks of leaving a vacuum in
the region. “Is it a good idea for the Americans to suddenly and quickly
withdraw from Syria? Or will it once more strengthen the capacity of Iran and
Russia to exert their influence?” Merkel said at the Munich Security Conference.
Pentagon chief Patrick Shanahan on Friday pledged ongoing backing for the fight
against ISIS - but kept allies guessing as to how that would be achieved once US
forces pull out, and won no solid pledges of support. Belgian Foreign Minister
Didier Reynders said the US had told partners in the global anti-ISIS coalition
that its soldiers would leave in “weeks rather than months”. The decision has
stunned allies including France, which contributes artillery and about 1,200
forces in the region, including soldiers who train Iraqi troops. French Foreign
Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian asked why the US would create a vacuum in Syria that
could benefit its enemy Iran, calling the approach a “mystery”. A French
government source told AFP it was “totally out of the question” to have French
troops on the ground without US forces.
Egyptian Party Members Resign in Row over Constitutional
Amendments
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 16 February, 2019/Egypt’s Conservative Party
has witnessed a series of resignations after its leader, MP Akmal Kourtam,
rejected parliament’s approval in principle of draft constitutional amendments
that would allow President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to stay in power until 2034.
Parliament Speaker Ali Abdelaal said that 485 MPs in the 596-seat assembly voted
in favor of the changes, comprising more than the two-thirds majority needed to
pass the amendments. Local media said 17 voted against and one abstained. The
Speaker said the motion would be discussed by the Constitutional and Legislative
Affairs Committee for 60 days before returning to parliament for a final vote
followed by the referendum, likely to take place by the end of April. During the
vote on Thursday, Kourtam left the session following a heated exchange with
several lawmakers.
A Conservative Party official in Asyut, Salah al-Sayyed, announced on Friday his
resignation from the party’s general-secretariat to protest Kourtam’s rejection
of the amendments, stressing his full support for the parliament’s latest move
to extend Sisi’s term.
Several other party members in Dakahlia said they were also resigning from the
party’s secretariat for the same purpose. The proposed constitutional amendments
include an extension of the presidential term to six years from four in Article
140 of the constitution, and a “transitional” clause that would reset the clock,
potentially allowing Sisi to stay in power until 2034.
SDF Expels ISIS from Last East Syria Stronghold
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 16 February, 2019/The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF) have captured ISIS’ last remaining enclave in eastern Syria,
announced the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights on Saturday. The UK-based war
monitoring group stated the last few hundred terrorists, many of them
foreigners, had surrendered in the past two days to the US-backed SDF. It said
some militants may still be hiding in underground tunnels. With the help of US
air strikes, the SDF has battled to crush ISIS in the shrinking Baghouz enclave
east of the Euphrates river near the Iraqi border.
"Large numbers" of civilians remain in the area prompting a fresh delay in a
final advance, the SDF said Saturday. "There are still civilians inside in large
numbers," spokesman Adnan Afrin told AFP. "We weren’t expecting this number,
otherwise we wouldn’t have resumed the campaign four days ago. This is why it’s
been delayed," he added. Saturday’s development came shortly after US President
Donald Trump said he had “a lot of great announcements having to do with Syria
and our success with the eradication” of ISIS over the next 24 hours.
Egypt: Seven Militants Killed, 15 Soldiers Dead or Wounded
in North Sinai
Cairo- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 16 February, 2019/Egypt's army said Saturday
seven suspected militants were "eliminated" and 15 soldiers killed or wounded in
an attack in the Sinai Peninsula, where troops are fighting the ISIS terrorist
group. Security forces responded to the attack on a checkpoint in restive North
Sinai with an "exchange of fire", army spokesman Tamer el-Refai said in a
statement. "An officer and 14 non-commissioned soldiers were killed or wounded,"
he added, without giving a precise number for the dead. Medical sources in North
Sinai told AFP that 11 soldiers were killed in the attack. “Combing operations
and the pursuit and elimination of the terrorist elements in the area where the
incident took place is ongoing,” Refai added. The security sources said
operations were taking place under aerial cover. Since the army's overthrow of
elected president Mohamed Morsi in 2013, hundreds of soldiers and police have
been killed in attacks by extremist groups. Civilians have also been targeted in
militant attacks, particularly members of Egypt's minority Coptic Christian
community. Egypt's army launched an offensive a year ago dubbed "Sinai 2018" on
the orders of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, after a militant attack in North
Sinai killed more than 300 people at a mosque. The army says that more than 550
suspected militants have been killed in the offensive -- which has also targeted
militants elsewhere in Egypt -- at the cost of more than 30 soldiers. Sisi has
called on Western countries to boost efforts at tackling extremist ideology in
online media and mosques. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference Saturday,
the president said countries must "tackle websites that are inciting hatred and
spreading extremist and terrorist narratives among communities in the Islamic
world and in the West." He also said authorities should "be very mindful of what
is being promoted at houses of worship," adding that extremists should not be
allowed to preach. He underlined his efforts in Egypt to control the sermons in
mosques.
20 Palestinians Hurt in Gaza Border Clashes
Gaza- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 16 February, 2019/Palestinian medical officials
said that 20 Gazans were wounded on Friday by Israeli fire during weekly clashes
on the border, while Israeli police said one officer was hurt by an explosive
device. “Twenty injuries by the Israeli occupation forces with live ammunition,”
the Gaza Health Ministry said in a statement. The Israeli army said that 11,000
“rioters and demonstrators” gathered at several points along the border barrier,
with people throwing rocks at soldiers and the fence, as well as “several
explosive devices and grenades” aimed at the troops.
“Troops responded with riot dispersal means and fired in accordance with
standard operating procedures,” a military spokeswoman told AFP. Israeli police
said an officer operating at the border was lightly wounded by shrapnel in his
leg. Palestinians in Gaza have for nearly a year gathered at least weekly along
the border for protests, calling on Israel to end its decade-long blockade of
the enclave. At least 250 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire since
then, the majority shot during clashes, though others have been hit by tank fire
or airstrikes. Two Israeli soldiers have been killed over the same period.
Israel claims its actions are necessary to defend the border and stop
infiltrations and attacks, which it accuses Hamas of seeking to orchestrate.
Israel and Hamas have fought three wars since 2008. Meanwhile, United Nations
Secretary-General António Guterres reiterated on Friday that a “peaceful and
just solution” to the Israel-Palestine conflict can “only be achieved” through
two States “living side-by-side in peace and security”. In his address to the
Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People,
which was established by the UN General Assembly in 1975, Guterres said that
“based on relevant UN resolutions, long-held principles, previous agreements and
international law”, Jerusalem should be the capital of both States.
“Unfortunately, over this past year, the situation has not moved in that
direction”, he continued, pointing to protests that began along the border fence
with Gaza last year that left hundreds dead and thousands wounded by Israeli
security forces. “Thanks to UN and Egyptian mediation efforts, a major
escalation was avoided”, he continued, appealing to Hamas authorities in Gaza to
“prevent provocations”. The UN chief said that under International Humanitarian
Law, “Israel, too, has a responsibility to exercise maximum restraint”, except
as a last resort. Guterres underscored that the UN firmly supports Palestinian
reconciliation and “the return of the legitimate Palestinian Government to
Gaza”, as “an integral part of a future Palestinian State”.Spelling out that the
ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza must be “immediately addressed”, he detailed
that some two million Palestinians “remain mired in increasing poverty and
unemployment, with limited access to adequate health, education, water and
electricity”, leaving young people with “little prospect of a better future”.
“I urge Israel to lift restrictions on the movement of people and goods, which
also hamper the efforts of the United Nations and other humanitarian agencies,
without naturally jeopardizing legitimate security concerns,” the
Secretary-General stated.
Erdogan dubs Macron a ‘political novice’ over Armenia issue
AFP, Ankara/Saturday, 16 February 2019/Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on
Friday called French counterpart Emmanuel Macron a “political novice” over the
announcement that France would hold a national day to commemorate “the Armenian
genocide.”Turkey and Armenia have long been at odds over the treatment of
Armenians during World War I. Armenians say up to 1.5 million of their people
were killed during the war. But Turkey -- the Ottoman Empire’s successor state
-- denies that the massacres, imprisonment and forced deportation of Armenians
from 1915 amounted to a genocide.
“I say to Macron -- you are still a political novice, first learn the history of
your country,” Erdogan said during an interview with the A-Haber television
channel. He went on to list all the countries which France had colonized and
where, he said, massacres had taken place including Algeria, Indochina and
Rwanda.
France was one of the first major European nations to recognize the mass
killings as “genocide.” More than 20 other countries have followed suit.
Armenians commemorate the massacres on April 24 -- the day in 1915 when
thousands of Armenian intellectuals suspected of harboring nationalist sentiment
and being hostile to Ottoman rule were rounded up. Earlier this month Macron
announced that France, which has a substantial Armenian community, would hold a
“national day of commemoration of the Armenian genocide” on the same date. Last
week Turkey hit out at that decision with Turkish foreign ministry spokesman
Hami Aksoy accusing Macron of trying to win votes from the Armenian community in
France.
Maduro reveals secret Venezuela meetings with US
AFP, Caracas/Saturday, 16 February 2019/Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has
confirmed that one of his top officials held two meetings with a prominent US
diplomat. Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza, a harsh critic of the United States,
traveled recently to New York to meet with the US special envoy for Venezuela,
Elliott Abrams. The first meeting lasted “two hours and the second three hours,
a day later,” Maduro told news agency Associated Press in a video released on
Thursday. “I invited Elliott Abrams to come to Venezuela -- in private, in
public, in secret. All he has to do is say where, when and how, and I'll be
there,” added Maduro. Washington is one of the driving forces behind Venezuelan
opposition leader Juan Guaido's bid to drive Maduro from power. The United
States was also one of the first countries to recognize Guaido as interim
president after his self-declaration last month. Maduro has repeatedly accused
Washington of wanting to launch a military invasion of Venezuela to gain access
to its vast oil reserves. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo played down the
significance of Maduro's offer for talks. “The fact that he has publicly said he
wants to talk with the United States is not new, but I think it demonstrates his
increasing understanding that the Venezuelan people are rejecting him and his
model of governance,” said Pompeo during a visit to Iceland.
Kim Jong Un to arrive in Vietnam on Feb. 25
ahead of Trump summit
Reuters, Hanoi/Saturday, 16 February 2019/North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will
arrive in Vietnam on February 25 ahead of a planned second summit with US
President Donald Trump, three sources with direct knowledge of Kim’s schedule
told Reuters on Saturday. Trump and Kim will meet in the Vietnamese capital on
Feb. 27 and 28 for the second summit between the two leaders since their
historic first meeting in Singapore last June. Kim Jong Un will meet with
Vietnamese officials when he arrives in Hanoi, said the sources, who requested
anonymity citing the sensitivity and secrecy surrounding the movements of the
North Korean leader. Kim will visit the Vietnamese manufacturing base of Bac
Ninh, and the industrial port town of Hai Phong, one source said. Vietnam’s
president and general secretary of the ruling Communist Party, Nguyen Phu Trong,
will meet Kim ahead of a planned trip by Trong to neighboring Laos, one of the
sources with direct knowledge told Reuters.
Turkey Has Not Revealed all About Khashoggi
Killing, Says Erdogan
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 16/19/Turkey has not yet revealed all the
information it has discovered about the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in
the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday. "We
haven't given all the elements we have at our disposal," the Turkish head of
state said during an interview with the A-Haber television channel. After weeks
of denial, Saudi Arabia admitted that Khashoggi had been killed on October 2
after entering the consulate to obtain the paperwork necessary for his upcoming
marriage to Turkish woman Hatice Cengiz. Turkey has said the journalist was
killed by a team of 15 Saudis who strangled him, and Ankara has repeatedly asked
Riyadh to identify the local who allegedly helped them dispose of the body,
which has not been found. Riyadh has arrested a number of senior Saudi officials
allegedly involved in the murder. Khashoggi, Washington Post contributor, was a
fierce critic of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who denies any
involvement in the murder. Ankara "is determined to bring this case before
international justice," said Erdogan, calling on the United States to weigh in
this case.
French to Mark Three Months of 'Yellow Vest' Protests
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 16/19/Demonstrators are to hit French
city streets again Saturday, marking three months of "yellow vest" protests as a
poll now suggests that most of the country wants them to stop. The number of
those attending the weekly rallies has dropped since 287,000 turned out on
November 17, the first Saturday of protest. And for the first time, a poll found
Wednesday that more than half those questioned felt it was time to end the
protests. On February 9, the 13th weekend of anti-government actions, 51,000
people took to the streets according to police, though protest organisers put
the figure at 118,000. Violence has marred nearly every large-scale rally. In
Paris, where 4,000 gathered last week, clashes broke out outside the National
Assembly building where one demonstrator lost a hand, reportedly as he tried to
bat away a stun grenade. Masked activists tried to break down barriers
protecting the parliament but were repelled by police firing tear gas and
grenades. As the march continued, vandals burned rubbish bins and cars and
smashed bus shelters, cash machines and shop windows along the route.
One of the torched vehicles belonged to Sentinelle, an anti-terrorism unit.
Interior Minister Christophe Castaner expressed his "indignation and disgust" in
a tweet. Some 550 shops have been damaged by protesters in the capital since mid
November. Thousands of protesters also turned out in the southern cities of
Marseille, Montpellier, Bordeaux and Toulouse -- strongholds of the movement --
as well as several cities in the north and west of France. The "yellow vest"
movement started as a protest against rising fuel taxes, but it has become one
of opposition to President Emmanuel Macron's policies.
Speaking at a meeting with local mayors on Thursday, Macron said it was time for
a "return to reason", adding that authorities would act with "greater firmness"
against violent demonstrators. The interior ministry said 1,796 people have been
sentenced for rioting or other acts of violence over the past three months,
while 1,422 more are awaiting trial. Ex-boxer Christophe Dettinger who became a
hero to some protesters after beating up police officers during a demonstration
in January was convicted Wednesday and given a one-year prison term.
- 56 percent want protests to stop -
An Elabe opinion poll published Wednesday said 56 percent of French people now
wanted the protests to stop -- 11 points higher than a month ago. And while 58
percent of people still backed or had sympathy for the protesters, that was five
points lower than two weeks ago and nine points below the level in early
January. Two out of three people thought the recurring Saturday rallies were no
longer in keeping with what "yellow vests" originally stood for. Macron has
pledged 10 billion euros ($11.2 billion) in response to anger over the high cost
of living, including tax cuts for some pensioners and measures to boost low
wages. He has also spearheaded a "grand national debate" by way of the internet
and town hall meetings to gather opinions on how the country could be reformed.
It was not known how many people might turn out for protests over the weekend as
social media messaging has alternatively called for blocking the Arc de Triomphe
monument in Paris Saturday, or marching down the Champs-Elysees avenue on
Sunday. Others suggested "yellow vests" should return to their original tactics
of massing at roundabouts nationwide and blocking traffic.
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on February 16-17/19
Sweden Prosecuting Pensioners, Welcoming ISIS
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/February 16/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13651/sweden-isis-pensioners
Perhaps the Council of Europe considers Åberg's successful efforts of turning in
fellow Swedes to the police for perceived thought crimes an example that other
European countries should emulate?
The pensioner explained during questioning, "I was angry when I read about how
it worked with immigrants and how they avoid punishment for everything they do.
They get acquitted, though they steal and do other things. It is unfair that
those who commit gross crimes can go free...." The pensioner said that she would
not have written what she did, had she known that it was illegal. She evidently
labored under the misconception that she was still living in a democracy. In
January, she was sentenced to a fine of 4,000 Swedish kroner ($443). She lives
on a monthly pension of only 7,000 Swedish kroner ($775).
Swedish authorities clearly cannot -- or will not -- prosecute or convict the
jihadists whom they so generously welcome to the country; yet they have no
qualms charging and prosecuting harmless elderly pensioners. One might add that
a culture that respects the human rights of returning ISIS fighters more than
that of the elderly women who are afraid of them, is all but done.
While the Swedish Security Service is assuring the public that it will do "even
more" to limit the growth of terrorist environments in Sweden, the Swedish
government is exacerbating the problem by welcoming returning ISIS jihadist
fighters back into the country.
"Violence-promoting Islamist extremism currently constitutes the biggest threat
to Sweden," according to a January 15 press release from the Swedish Security
Service (Säpo). "The level of the terror threat remains elevated, a three on a
five-point scale. This means that a terrorist act is likely to occur," said Klas
Friberg, head of Säpo.
"In order to meet the threat from terrorism, the Security Service will in future
work even more strategically to limit the growth of extremist environments. It
may be about dealing with [omhänderta] persons who constitute a security threat
or, in cooperation with other authorities, working harder to ensure that these
individuals are prosecuted for other crimes - or have their opportunities cut."
While Säpo is assuring the Swedish public that it will do "even more" to limit
the growth of terrorist environments in Sweden, the Swedish government is
exacerbating the problem by welcoming returning ISIS fighters back into the
country. Approximately 300 people left Sweden to fight for ISIS and it is
estimated that approximately 150 Swedish ISIS fighters have returned to Sweden.
Approximately 50 of those who didn't return were killed.
The head of Säpo, in January, had described[1] returning ISIS fighters as
"broken people who have been traumatized by their experiences" and said that
Swedish society has to "play a big role in re-integrating them". [2]
Swedish law does not allow the security services to take all necessary measures
against returning ISIS fighters, even though a relatively new law, meant to
address the problem of terrorists in Sweden, was adopted in 2016. The law does
not allow authorities, for example, to seize or search the mobile phones and
computers of returning ISIS fighters, unless there is a concrete suspicion of a
crime, according to Fredrik Hallström, deputy head of Säpo's unit for
"ideologically motivated actors." Furthermore, according to Hallström, the
authorities do not know whether the returning fighters constitute a danger or
not to Swedish citizens: "It is also difficult to answer because the assessments
we make can change".
Many of the ISIS fighters took their families, including small children, with
them when they joined ISIS. A Swedish-speaking family who had travelled to join
ISIS had made a home movie, recently aired by the Swedish media, about their
life of jihad. In one scene, the mother is practicing her shooting, while father
helpfully explains to the children, "Now we will look at mommy when she is doing
jihad". The home movie also shows the wife shooting off her gun while gleefully
exclaiming, "That was cool!" and "Allahu Akbar" ("God is the greatest").
In another scene, the father can be seen getting ready to go out and kill, while
telling his young son and his toddler daughter about how he stole a
walkie-talkie from an "infidel" whom he had shot through the head and killed.
The little boy explains to the father how to best use the ammunition for his
assault rifle and asks to come along, but the mother tells him that his father
still thinks he is "too young". The narrator of the film explains that many
children of such ISIS families have returned to Sweden with their families and
attend Swedish kindergartens and schools. The family in the movie is one of
them. Swedish local authorities, however, do not know how many children have
returned. According to a poll that Swedish Television channel SVT conducted
among Swedish municipalities, Swedish municipalities are only aware of 16 adults
and 10 children, out of 150 returnees.
Already in June 2017, the head of Säpo at the time, Anders Thornberg, told
Swedish media that the country was experiencing a "historical" challenge in
having to deal with thousands of "radical Islamists in Sweden". (As late as
2010, there were 200 jihadists in Sweden, according to Säpo). Thornberg also
mentioned that his organization was receiving around 6,000 intelligence tips a
month concerning terrorism and extremism, compared to an average of 2,000 a
month in 2012.
Meanwhile, unsurprisingly, Swedes only feel more and more insecure in their own
country. Four out of 10 women are afraid to walk outside freely, according to
the new National Safety Report, published by the Swedish National Council for
Crime Prevention (Brottsförebyggande Rådet or Brå).
"Almost a quarter of the population chooses a different route or another mode of
transport as a result of anxiety about crime and one-fifth avoid being active on
the Internet due to concerns about threats and harassment," according to Brå.
"Among women aged 20–24, 42 percent state that they often opted for another
route or another mode of transport, because they felt insecure and worried about
being subjected to crime. The corresponding proportion among men in the same age
group is 16 percent... The degree of activity on the internet can also be
affected by concerns about being subjected to crime. About every fifth person,
regardless of gender, states that during the past year he has often refrained
from posting anything on the Internet out of concern for becoming exposed to
threats or harassment".
"Social media is an increasingly important forum for public discussion. If a
fifth of the population feel that they do not dare to express themselves on the
net for fear of being subjected to crime," said Maria Söderström from Brå, "then
it can be a democratic problem".
Fear of threats and harassment is not all that is causing Swedes to feel that
expressing themselves on the internet is something to avoid. Many who have
voiced "wrong" opinions on the internet have been charged by Swedish authorities
for "incitement against an ethnic group" -- a crime punishable under Swedish
law. The "democratic problem" that Söderström describes, therefore, is twofold:
the fear of threats and harassment from others, and the fear of prosecution from
the state.
The organization believed to be largely responsible for these charges, at least
since 2017, is "Näthatsgranskaren" ("The Web Hate Investigator"), a private
organization founded in January 2017 by a former police officer, Tomas Åberg,
who apparently took it upon himself to identify and report to the authorities
Swedish individuals whom he and his organization decide are committing thought
crimes and "inciting hatred" against foreigners. Åberg recently boasted that he
had filed 1,218 reports with the police in 2017-2018 alone and that out of 214
charges, there had been 144 judgments. "Many are [still] awaiting charges" he
wrote on Twitter.
Last November, the Information Society Group, an organization under the Council
of Europe, invited Åberg to be a keynote speaker at its regional conference,
"Addressing hate speech in the media: the role of regulatory authorities and the
judiciary," in Zagreb. The conference examined "how hate discourse is regulated
in different member States of the Council of Europe focusing on the specific
role and work of national regulatory authorities, the judiciary and media
self-regulatory bodies". Perhaps the Council of Europe considers Åberg's
successful efforts at turning in fellow Swedes to the police for perceived
thought crimes an example that other European countries should emulate?
Swedish taxpayers contributed 1.5 million SEK ($165,000) to Åberg's efforts in
2017 and 2018. Most of it, according to the Swedish news outlet Fria Tider,
apparently goes towards paying Åberg's salary.
In November, Åberg's efforts led to the conviction of a 70-year-old woman for
writing the following post, as a comment on an article about the violence of
Muslim men against women, in a Facebook group, 'Stand up for Sweden': "Aren't we
in Sweden or have we transformed the country into a damn Muslim monster?" The
woman was then called in for questioning at a police station -- this would be
the same Swedish police that does not have enough resources to investigate rape
cases. There, she explained:
"I have been provoked by various headlines and by 'Cold Facts' [investigative
journalism TV program] that they have burned and beaten their wives. I am
wondering if it will be like that in Sweden, too, and it makes me upset"... I am
opposed to them being nasty against women. We have so many Muslims coming. I
must have meant that they are abusing women".
For an elderly woman to be concerned about the physical safety of women in
Sweden, the government of which in 2016 declared itself "feminist" is, it seems,
unacceptable to Swedish authorities. While returned ISIS fighters who might have
raped, pillaged, tortured and murdered to their heart's delight are welcomed
back to Sweden and can go on with their lives -- or plot terrorism against
Swedes -- elderly Swedish women may not utter a word about their fear of such
men or indeed their ideology. Chief Prosecutor Lars Göransson at the Public
Prosecutor's Office in Gävle chose to prosecute the 70-year-old for "incitement
against an ethnic group". In November, the woman was found guilty and sentenced
to a fine of 4,800 SEK ($530).
Another result of Åberg's efforts was the January conviction of a 78-year-old
woman who was charged for having written on Facebook, among other things, that
Muslims are "bearded" and "ghosts". The woman became upset when she read about
immigrants who commit serious crimes against the elderly and get away with low
or no punishment. After Åberg had reported the woman, who apparently is poor and
suffers from ill-health after a stroke and a lung disease, the prosecutor chose
to charge the pensioner for six posts that she had written on Facebook. Among
them the following: "Yes, all Muslims should be expelled from the country, we do
not want them here. A lot of bearded men who scare the children".
The pensioner explained during questioning:
"I was angry when I read about how it worked with immigrants and how they avoid
punishment for everything they do. They get acquitted, though they steal and do
other things. It is unfair that those who commit gross crimes can go free.
People knock down older people and take money from them".
The pensioner said that she would not have written what she did, had she known
that it was illegal. She evidently labored under the misconception that she was
still living in a democracy. In January, she was sentenced to a fine of 4,000
Swedish kroner ($443). The woman lives from a monthly pension of only 7,000
Swedish kroner ($775).
"Even an indirect reference to nicknames or other offensive terms about race or
immigrants in general is covered by the law against incitement against an ethnic
group and is punishable," wrote Judge Jon Jonasson in his judgment.
Swedish authorities clearly cannot -- or will not -- prosecute or convict the
jihadists whom they so generously welcome to the country; yet they have no
qualms charging and prosecuting harmless elderly pensioners. One might add that
a culture that respects the human rights of returning ISIS fighters more than
that of the elderly women who are afraid of them, is all but done.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished
Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
[1] See the video at 57:03
[2] Ibid. at 57:28.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Yemen's War Is a Mercenary Heaven. Are Israelis Reaping the Profits?
زفي هارئيل من الهآرتس: حرب اليمن هي جنة للمرتزقة فهل الإسرائيليون يجنون الفوائد
منها
Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/Februar 16/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/72225/zvi-barel-haaretz-yemens-war-is-a-mercenary-heaven-are-israelis-reaping-the-profits-%d8%b2%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a6%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa/
The privatization of the war in Yemen has entered a new stage.
“If Iran tries to block the Bab al-Mandab strait, I’m sure it will find itself
facing an international coalition determined to prevent it. This coalition will
include all Israel’s army branches as well,” declared Benjamin Netanyahu in
August, following Iran’s threats against American sanctions.
Such a coalition had already been set up in 2015 by Saudi Arabia, who partnered
with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt and Pakistan. Israel is also an
unofficial partner. Israeli cyber companies, gun traders, terror-warfare
instructors and even paid hitmen operated by an Israeli-owned company are
partners to the war in Yemen.
In September, London-based Al-Khaleej Online published a long article about
Israel’s involvement in training Colombian and Nepalese combatants, who were
recruited by the UAE for the war in Yemen. The report cites sources in a U.S.
House Intelligence Committee who said the foreign fighers’ recruiter was
Mohammed Dahlan, who was a member of Fatah’s central committee and head of
intelligence in Gaza. Dahlan was ousted from Fatah in 2011 and later moved to
the UAE, where he became the advisor of the crown prince and the liaison and
mediator between the UAE security forces and Israel.
The report also says that Israel set up special training bases in the Negev,
where the mercenaries were trained by Israeli combatants. Dahlan occasionally
visited those camps, in which the UAE flag was hoisted.
The mercenaries later took part in the war on the port town Hodeidah and other
fighting zones in Yemen.
The site’s sources said Israel also sold bombs and missiles to Saudi Arabia,
some of which are banned. Recently it was reported and later denied that Israel
also sold Saudi Arabia combat drones and intends to sell it Iron Dome systems as
well.
Many reports have been written about Israeli companies like the NSO group, which
is suspected of selling Saudi Arabia Pegasus spyware accused of helping trace
and survey Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, or the AGT company owned by the
Israeli businessman Mati Kochavi, which in 2007 won the $6 billion bid to set up
surveillance and monitoring systems in Abu Dhabi. But what remains a mystery is
to what extent Israeli technology served the fighting forces in Yemen.
Another company, Spearhead Operations Group, which was set up by Israeli Avraham
Golan and is registered in the United States, was responsible for assassinating
Yemenite clergyman Anssaf Ali Mayo in December 2015. Mayo was one of the leaders
of the Yemeni reform party, which is affiliated to the Muslim Brotherhood. The
latter is classified in the UAE as a terror organization. Golan confirmed to
BuzzFeed in October that “there was a plan for targeted assassinations in Yemen.
I ran it. We did it. The plan was under the UAE auspices as part of the Arab
coalition.”
Golan added that during the months his company was active in Yemen he was in
charge of several “high profile” assassinations and that the United States needs
a murder plan based on the model he set up. According to BuzzFeed, those who
actually carried out the assassinations were apparently former combatants in top
American commandos.
Israelis aren’t the only ones selling military services to the UAE and Saudi
Arabia to go to the war in Yemen. Private American companies, senior officers
and ex-CIA agents found their bonanza in these two states, just as private
companies made a huge fortune out of “military” services they provided the Iraqi
government after the occupation. These services include active warfare and
intelligence gathering as well as commanding mercenary units or combatant units
from Saudi Arabia and UAE. For example, the former American general Stephen
Toumajan is serving as the UAE’s commander of the Joint Aviation Command and was
the chief of a combat helicopter unit that fought in Yemen.
Toumajan isn’t the American security agencies’ subcontractor, he wears the UAE
air force uniform and in interviews he speaks of himself as a general in the
state’s army. Toumajan represents a new stage in the privatization of the war in
Yemen and in other states in which the United States is involved but isn’t
taking part in the battles.
A foreign partnership in the armies of Arab states isn’t new. Pakistani pilots
for example fly Saudi planes, the Presidential Guard commander in the UAE is
Australian general Mike Hindmarsh. Companies from all over the world including
Israel run advanced intelligence systems, so the term “mercenaries” has evolved
from armed combatant units from poor countries who come to improve their
standard of living to a role filled with extensive activities including setting
up combat units, commanding them, planning war moves, purchasing equipment and
managing budgets.
The difference between sending combatants who serve in the armies of foreign
countries, like Iranian and Russian forces in Syria, or forces of the Western
coalition fighting in Afghanistan, and mercenaries who are recruited privately,
is blurry. Regular forces acting in foreign states are subjected to the laws of
the state that sends them, compared to mercenaries, who act at the instructions
of the recruiting state. But this is also the problem with employing them.
These forces need a legal permit, which is given after a parliamentary debate or
by legislation, and then the state can decide on the kind of fighting its forces
will be involved in and the length of time they’ll stay on foreign soil. In
contrast, mercenaries, whether combatants or in air conditioned high tech
companies in Dubai or Riyadh, are subject only to the terms of their employment
contract, unless they pass information to a foreign state without a permit.
An example for this is the United States House of Representatives’ decision to
ban the involvement of U.S. troops in the war in Yemen (although intelligence
cooperation is still permitted). This is a declarative decision intended to
convey to President Donald Trump and the Saudi crown prince that the U.S. no
longer supports this war, which has generated one of the greatest humanitarian
tragedies, despite its description as a struggle against Iran.
The United States doesn’t have military forces that are active in the war in
Yemen, but an “army” of mercenaries, which includes numerous Americans, may
continue to act unhindered as long as it is financed by Arab states.
The senior mercenaries have not ruled out the need for the cannon fodder
recruited by the fighting states from the ever available stock in poor states.
Many Yemenites have avoided joining their state’s army to fight the Houthi
insurgents, they prefer to be mercenaries of the Saudi army for the same cause.
Much of it could be due to wages as a soldier in the Yemeni army earns some $100
a month on average, whereas a mercenary’s monthly wage is $350-$500 plus some
$130 for every attack. Columbian combatants earn three or four times what they
would make in their army, while Afghan combatants who are recruited from the
thousands of Afghan refugees in Iran to fight in Syria are assured a $250 wage
each month. More importantly, they may be eligible for Iranian citizenship along
with their families.
The most expensive mercenaries are from elite American units like the Navy
Seals, army rangers and the Marines. According to the silentprofessionals.org
site, a professional with training as a sniper who gets a job in Afghanistan or
Iraq can make some $544 a day plus perks and bonuses. Yemenites or Columbians
cannot get this coveted post even if they are gifted snipers, as the key
requirement is having an American citizenship. However this doesn’t mean private
companies won’t agree to employ talented snipers from other states, after all,
the supply and demand principle works in this market too.
Mercenaries may be private people or companies that don’t represent governments,
but often the states they come from are suspected of initiating or at least
turning a blind eye to their activity. The Israeli Defense Ministry or Mossad
may claim people who served in their ranks and are now private contractors of
the UAE or South American states are not working in Israel’s name, and as long
as they don’t break the laws of their host state there is no reason to put them
on trial. But it is doubtful whether anyone would accept this argument when such
a mercenary, whether an independent contractor or a private company, acts in
foreign states in a way that serves Israel’s interests, such as the war against
Iran. Thus there are those who argue that if Israel cannot allow anyone to pass
information and technology directly to Saudi Arabia while being recruited, they
can wait a few months until being discharged and then proceed privately, for big
money. After all, it’s all for the same purpose – Israeli’s security or the
region’s security or the world’s security.
Warsaw: A Step to Deter Iran
أمير طاهري: مؤتمر ةارسو هو خطوة بإتجاه ردع إيران
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/February 16/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/72231/amir-taheri-warsaw-a-step-to-deter-iran-%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%b7%d8%a7%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%a4%d8%aa%d9%85%d8%b1-%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%b3%d9%88-%d9%87%d9%88-%d8%ae%d8%b7%d9%88%d8%a9/
Even before it was announced, the Warsaw Conference on Peace and Security in the
Middle East had triggered a tsunami of both positive and negative comments.
Tehran saw the conference as an attempt at isolating it, thus making it more
vulnerable to further sanctions or even military punishment.
Russia regarded the conference as an attempt at creating a new coalition of
eastern and central European nations plus almost all Middle Eastern countries
under US leadership to thwart Moscow’s foreign policy ambitions.
Part of the Iranian opposition welcomed the conference as a clear signal that
the current US administration is prepared to at least re-think former President
Barack Obama’s strategy of accommodation with the Islamic Republic.
In that context, by dominating the debate on Iran for weeks, the Warsaw
Conference has achieved what the Trump administration had hoped for.
The conference also provided an opportunity for assessing the success or failure
of Trump’s Iran policy so far.
In the success column is the fact that Trump has seriously tackled the task of
dismantling the Obama strategy.
Besides denouncing the so-called “Obama nuke deal”, the new administration has
also purged almost all the personnel associated with the “Obama deal” within the
State Department, the National Security Council and the Pentagon.
An attempt has also been made to redirect television and radio channels
controlled by the US government away from the sympathetic attitude they had
adopted under Obama’s direction towards Tehran.
Trump has also succeeded in re-instating most of the sanctions suspended by
Obama while adding a few sanctions of his own, without encountering significant
opposition either in the US or among Western and regional allies.
The perception that the US isn’t going to endorse Tehran’s regional ambitions,
as Obama clearly wanted, has also led to some change of behavior in the region.
More importantly, perhaps, the Trump administration has established a 12-point
check-list of what it wants Tehran to do. In that context Washington has
achieved its biggest success so far.
It seems that, notwithstanding the usual bluster associate with mullahs, Tehran
has been quietly trying to conform with the demands of the American “Great
Satan.”
The biggest hint of that came last Monday when President Hassan Rouhani
addressed a crowd in Tehran.
In the middle of the 45-minutes long harangue came a well-coded diplomatic
message to Washington: As far as missiles are concerned Tehran is going to do
exactly what the US wants!
The message was wrapped in a verbiage of defiance with Rouhani saying Iran shall
take no orders from anyone on its missiles program. Then he named just the types
of missiles to which the US has no objections, pointedly excluding the
long-range and ballistic ones that Washington wants to stop.
Interestingly, Rouhani’s coded message was fleshed out through an official
checklist of missiles published by the official media in Tehran.
The checklist shows that over the past 40 years Iran has developed and
stockpiled 17 missiles, none of which exceeds the 2000-kilometers range fixed by
the US. The official checklist also states what exactly each of the missiles
Iran has could do. The overall picture is that of an arsenal of “theater”
missile and rockets that are of use in the battlefield or for short and
medium-range operations.
The official checklist also mentions two rockets capable of launching
satellites, a space prober and five surface-to-air defense systems. None of that
violates the terms of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2032 on which
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has based his 12-point demands for Iran.
That the Islamic Republic has frozen its missile project below the
2000-kilometer range has also been publicly acknowledged by “Supreme Guide” Ali
Khamenei, National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani and Chief of Staff
General Muhammad Baqeri.
In Syria, Tehran has simply swallowed the countless attacks made on its
positions by Israel, each time vowing revenge but doing nothing. It has also
ordered its Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon to keep quiet.
That Tehran is also forced to lower its profile in Syria is now regarded by most
analysts as inevitable. Full withdrawal isn’t easy within a short time because
Tehran wouldn’t want to host the 80,000 Lebanese, Afghan, Pakistani, Syria and
Iraqi mercenaries it has assembled in Syria. Bringing so many war-hardened men
to Iran could prove a major headache for any regime in Tehran.
Tehran has also officially declared the end of its “military advisory mission”
in Iraq. Meanwhile, General Qassem Soleimani, the man who heads the project to
“export revolution” has been ordered to stay out of sight.
He spent the 40th anniversary of the Khomeinist revolution in his native city of
Kirman, far from Tehran, instead of heading the marchers as he always did on
similar occasions in the capital.
Last year, Khamenei threatened to “burn the nuclear deal” if the US denounced
it. A year later he has not done so. Nor has he ordered “the resumption with
full-speed” of the nuclear project. Instead he has swallowed a humiliating
scheme conjured by Britain, France and Germany to let Iran buy food and medical
supplies in exchange for crude oil. This is even worse than the food-for-oil
scheme imposed by the UN on Iraq under Saddam Hussein if only because the
European nations will not buy the oil themselves.
Iran would have to go and find customers and then ask them to make payments to
the three European partners.
Tehran’s decision to quietly cancel or lower the profile of its annual Holocaust
denial and “End of America” and “End of Israel” may also be regarded as a
positive effect of the growing pressure from Washington. Many of the usual
suspects in the global anti-American and anti-Semite constituencies were given
visas and air tickets to Tehran but, on arrival, were told to content themselves
with tourist sorties, often away from the capital.
The recent upsurge of activity by part of the opposition to Tehran may also be
regarded as a success for Trump if only because it shows that the message that
Obama’s flirtation with the mullahs is over.
However, on the negative side Washington has not succeeded in settling the
debate that has plagued it since the mullahs seized power in Tehran 40 years
ago. This debate is over whether the US can cajole Iran back into the fold by
supporting the so-called “moderates” “reformists” or “New York Boys”.
Pompeo’s 12-point wish-list is being fulfilled by Tehran.
But even if it is, a tactical change of behaviour would not solve the”
Khomeinist problem” that has haunted the region for decades. The Islamic
Republic could revert to its usual “cheat-and-retreat” tactic, behaving nicely
until an adversary is fooled or its attention span is closed. Islamic Foreign
Minister Muhammad Javad Zarif often talks of “sitting out Trump”, in the hope
that the next Democrat administration will revert to Obama’s fantasy of
normalization with the Islamic Republic.
Zarif and others still think that, if the worse came to the worst, they could
calm down Trump with a photo-op and promises of better behaviour in the future.
This is why they are feeding rumours that five counters are brokering a dialogue
between Tehran and Washington and that Trump may even send his son-in-law to see
Khamenei in Tehran.
Finally, the Trump administration is still far away from reviving the terms of
the seven UN resolutions that the Islamic Republic has systematically violated.
The question is whether or not the “Iran problem of which many talk could be
solved through a temporary change of behavior in Tehran?”
Only an independent Iraq can bottle Iran up
Tallha Abdulrazaq/The Arab Weekly/February 17/19
If the US was serious about dealing with Iranian ambitions, then it might have
empowered and facilitated a truly sovereign government born of a national
movement.
Every US president since Jimmy Carter has had nothing but bad words for the
Iranian leadership since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini overthrew the shah in 1979.
For 40 years, we have heard American administrations talk about the threat Iran
poses to regional and global stability and how that menace must be stopped. That
is an assessment that very few who truly study the modern Middle East would
disagree with.
However, as with US President Donald Trump’s and US Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo’s tweeted remarks on the 40th anniversary of the Iranian revolution, it
is not just the theocratic regime that has provided nothing but 40 years of
failure. The United States itself has failed to deal with a threat that has
bothered it far longer than, say, former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein ever did.
That is why it comes as rather disappointing when Trump announced that US troops
would remain in the Ayn al-Asad Airbase near Ramadi in western Iraq “to watch
Iran.” Not only is the base as far from the Iraqi-Iranian border as can be when
measuring Iraq east to west but it will also do nothing to prevent Iranian
activities.
What exactly does the United States need to “watch” any more than what the
entire world has already seen?
Iran-backed militias roam Iraq at will and extort, exploit and kill people.
Their political arms control key ministries supported by the United States and
financed directly by the Iraqi budget in a political patronage system that makes
any notion of democracy in Iraq laughable.
Through Iran’s control over Iraq and influence over most of its affairs, Tehran
has moved men, money and arms into neighbouring Syria and beyond. Iraqi Shia
jihadists, bolstered by their Afghan and Pakistani counterparts in the so-called
Fatemiyoun brigades and other radical Shia militant formations, have
participated in Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ operations across
Syria.
Long before Russia directly intervened on Syrian President Bashar Assad’s side,
arguably the regime would have fallen were it not for Iranian power projection
moving through its colonised Iraqi hub.Despite that, the United States is
proposing to sit at an airbase and “watch.”This smacks of a lack of seriousness
on the part of Washington that for four decades has not managed to effect regime
change or even moderation on a supposed sworn enemy who has targeted and killed
US soldiers and civilians as well as causing untold damage to regional allies.
Let us not forget that under both former US President Barack Obama and Trump,
the United States provided close air support to a host of pro-Iran Shia
jihadists fighting under the umbrella organisation of the Popular Mobilisation
Forces, responsible for some of the most horrific sectarian war crimes seen in
generations.
The fight against the Islamic State is undoubtedly important but what is the
point of empowering one set of jihadists to fight another?
If the United States was serious about dealing with Iranian ambitions, then it
might have empowered and facilitated a truly sovereign government born of a
national movement built around the common values and shared culture and identity
that Iraqis feel across the ethno-sectarian divide.During the Iran-Iraq War in
the 1980s, Sunnis, Shias, Kurds, Turkmens and even Yazidis fought together
against the Khomeinist threat for eight years. They did so not for Ba’athism, as
such a flawed ideology would not have held people stand firmly together in a
conventional conflict for almost a decade. They did it for Iraq and because they
felt they were Iraqis.Only a revival of such a national spirit can break Iran’s
control over Iraq and begin the process of bottling up the mullah regime within
its own borders.
Saudi-Moroccan relations are not helped by silence
Mohamed Kawas/The Arab Weekly/February 17/19
Saudi Arabia’s and Morocco’s historical relationship is old and strategic. For
decades, the two countries had stayed on the same track.
Riyadh and Rabat are giving lessons in the art of diplomacy. The two capitals
are being highly professional in managing what was said to be a dispute between
them.
Saudi Arabia’s and Morocco’s historical relationship is old and strategic. For
decades, the two countries had stayed on the same track.
If one is to draw an analogy, the currently strained relations between the
European Union and the United States, an alliance rooted in history and values,
can be likened to the nature of Riyadh’s relations with Rabat.
It seems that what happened between Saudi Arabia and Morocco is nothing more
than, in the words of the Moroccan ambassador to Saudi Arabia, a “summer
shower.” As both countries endeavour to dismiss the controversy and its
symptoms, it seems clear that the signs of discord have accumulated to the point
they can no longer be hidden from observers of Arab affairs.
Morocco returned its ambassador to Riyadh after the Moroccan Ministry of Foreign
Affairs denied reports of his recall to Rabat. Before that, Ambassador Mustapha
Mansouri was quoted as saying that “the reason for his recall is related to
recent developments in the relationship between the two countries, especially
after Al Arabiya TV, the Saudi-owned news channel, broadcast a report calling
into question the territorial integrity of the kingdom of Morocco. That was
deemed to be a reaction to Moroccan Minister of Foreign Affairs and
International Cooperation Nasser Bourita’s interview with the Qatari-owned Al
Jazeera channel.”
Media reports said that after the Moroccan foreign minister’s live interview
with the Qatari channel, Al Arabiya broadcast a documentary that said Morocco
had invaded Western Sahara following the departure of the Spanish colonists in
1975. This version is rejected by Morocco because it considers Western Sahara an
integral part of its territory.
Apparently, there are other twists in the story.
Morocco had taken a neutral position regarding the boycott by Saudi Arabia,
Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain against Qatar. Rabat has always
maintained a point of neutrality and balance in its Arab relations and Morocco
has followed a foreign policy that shows the country as free and independent in
its decisions, orientations and foreign options.
Nevertheless, although neutrality was the defining characteristic of the
official positions of many countries towards the Arab Quartet’s engagement with
Qatar, in the case of Morocco, it was accompanied by a decision to send aid to
Doha and that can only be seen as bias towards Qatar.
Logically, Doha does not need Morocco’s aid. Qatar is a rich country with
international relations and communication networks throughout the world that
have not been interrupted by boycotts. Therefore, Morocco’s decision to send aid
to Qatar can only be considered a coded message that Qatar and the boycotting
quartet understand only too well.
Morocco may have its reasons and strategies in its relations with Saudi Arabia.
However, Riyadh can only take note of the Moroccan position and its tendency to
emphasise a position that cannot be considered neutral in the Qatari conflict.
While both countries preferred to observe silence about this problem, it did add
to the pile of many other small problems. It seems the Moroccan foreign
minister’s interview with Al Jazeera and the ensuing Al Arabiya report on the
Western Sahara question were connected with the fact that Morocco was not
included in Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz’s tour of
Maghreb countries. Obviously, the diplomacy of silence has failed.
Both countries have found the virtue of silence too much to bear but, on the
other hand and as their diplomatic wisdom has shown, they do not tolerate the
hype either.
It appeared that the so-called recall of the Moroccan ambassador in Riyadh for
consultation reflected a reaction to what cannot be tolerated in matters of
fundamental principles regarding the Western Sahara issue. One could argue that
the report on Al Arabiya does not necessarily reflect Saudi Arabia’s official
position but Morocco’s sensitivity about its territorial integrity cannot bear
any silence about what Morocco has always considered to be its right since the
late King Hassan II’s Green March on the region.
Rabat knows that Saudi Arabia’s position on the question of Western Sahara, just
like the position of the Gulf Cooperation Council, was pro-Morocco and
supportive of its policies there. Riyadh knows that despite its ups and downs,
its relationship with Morocco cannot waver around such a fundamental and
strategic issue for all Moroccans, their king and their government. So, both
countries wisely suppressed the symptoms of a misunderstanding that cannot be
allowed to turn into a controversy.
However, denying the existence of differences in opinions and positions between
both countries and trying to conceal their signs cannot be a viable way for
building the kind of relations that are supposed to be strategic and old.
Morocco’s position on the war in Yemen has changed. Bourita said Morocco’s
involvement in the Arab coalition had “changed.” Morocco, for example, is no
longer participating in the coalition forces’ military exercises and ministerial
meetings.
Rabat has been showing signs of discomfort and reservation that Riyadh needs to
pick up on and understand. The situation in Yemen is now a matter of
international attention involving the world’s major powers. So Morocco’s
position, in its form, will not affect the international approaches to the
matter but, in its content, it expresses Morocco’s confusion regarding
coordination, consultation and integration in the relations between the two
kingdoms and their behaviour.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed, in October 2017, said “the crisis with Qatar is a
very, very small, issue.” By contrast, the Western Sahara question is a very,
very big issue for Morocco.
This is why both countries sometimes resort to serious diplomatic tools in their
reactions and counter-reactions to each other’s positions. It is true that if
talk is silver then silence is gold, as the Arabic saying goes, but
Saudi-Moroccan relations can no longer tolerate too much silence.