LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 01.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
The Son of Man came eating and drinking, and they say, “Look, a
glutton and a drunkard, a friend of tax-collectors and sinners!” Yet wisdom is
vindicated by her deeds
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 11/16-19/:’‘But to what
will I compare this generation? It is like children sitting in the market-places
and calling to one another, “We played the flute for you, and you did not dance;
we wailed, and you did not mourn.” For John came neither eating nor drinking,
and they say, “He has a demon”; the Son of Man came eating and drinking, and
they say, “Look, a glutton and a drunkard, a friend of tax-collectors and
sinners!” Yet wisdom is vindicated by her deeds.”’
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News & Editorials published on January 31-February 01/2020
MECC comments on the Deal of the Century: 'There will be no peace without
justice'
Salameh Says $1 bn Sent Abroad
Diab Says Solutions 'Not Difficult', Slams Acts of Vandalism
Wazni Meets Sfeir Who Says Deposits are Safe
Report: ‘Judicial, Industrial’ Workshops Kick Off Today at Grand Serail
Old Building Partially Collapses in Tripoli
Geagea: Deducting from People's Bank Deposits Unacceptable
Diab chairs meeting of ministerial statement drafting committee
Diab meets Cypriot Foreign Minister, Japanese ambassador, Social and Economic
Council delegation
Diab meets heads of supervisory bodies, judicial councils
Lazzarini from Bkerki: We discussed ways to confront state of national emergency
in Lebanon
UNHCR concerned at growing anxiety and challenges of refugees in Lebanon
A tribute to Houda Kassatly's work highlighting Lebanon's cultural and
environmental heritage at Alice Mogabgab Gallery
Health Minister Says Baby Milk to be Subsidized by BDL
Palestinians Rally in Bourj al-Barajneh against Trump Initiative
Lebanon looks to combat capital flight/The Arab Weekly/January 31/2020
Lebanon’s protesters should not lose hope/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/January
31/2020
Iran’s Limited Options against the US/Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya English/January
31/2020
Shia Militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon Post-Soleimani/Michael Knights,
Phillip Smyth, and Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/January 31/2020
Lebanon’s new cabinet still contends with power of the street/Simon Speakman
Cordall/The Arab Weekly/January 31/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 31-February 01/2020
Syria Regime on Verge of Recapturing Idlib Highway Town
France Arrests Top Syrian Islamist Group Member on War Crimes Charges
Erdogan threatens 'military force' against Syria
US soldiers hurt in Iranian missile attack up to 64: Pentagon
Brexit is ‘historic warning sign’ for European Union, says Macron
Flag-waving Britons stage noisy Brexit welcome outside parliament
Trump’s expanded travel ban targets Nigeria, five other countries
Trump tells Ethiopian PM deal on huge dam ‘near:’ White House
Britain cuts loose from EU with delight, anger and indifference
Brexit heralds new beginning, new ties with EU: Johnson
US appoints special envoy for South Sudan crisis
US Senate rejects witnesses in Trump impeachment trial, paving way for acquittal
Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan say final agreement on Blue Nile dam by next month
China virus death toll rises to 258 with 45 new fatalities
China chides ‘mean’ US for travel warning as virus impact spreads
Nearly 200 Americans airlifted from China placed under coronavirus quarantine
Indian police kill man holding 20 women, children hostage
China Says No Need for 'Unnecessary Panic' over Virus
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 31-February
01/2020
Iran can obtain nuclear weapons far quicker than widely
recognized/Andrea Stricker/Al Arabiya/January 31/ 2020
Iran on cusp of new era/Alireza Nader/The Washington Examiner/January 31/ 2020
U.S. renews waivers on Iran nuclear work, but sanctions top Iran nuclear
official/Humeyra Pamuk, John Irish/Reuters/January 31/ 2020
The significance of Turkey’s policy on Africa and the driving forces behind it/Sinem
Cengiz/Arab News/January 31/ 2020
What the Arab League should tell the US/Daoud Kuttab/Arab News/January 31/2020
A turbulent start for the new decade/Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/January 31/2020
Le Coran des historiens *( 4 volumes, Éditions du Cerf, 2019, 3408 pages )/In
Memoriam, Michel Allard SJ ( 1924-1976 )
Details Of The Latest English LCCC Lebanese
& Lebanese Related News & Editorial published
on January 31-February 01/2020
MECC comments on the Deal of the Century:
'There will be no peace without justice'
Annahar/January 31/2020
MECC considers that the Deal of the Century contradicts with Palestinians' will
to establish a Palestinian State and their right of return.
The Middle East Council of Churches expressed major backlash on the Deal of the
Century, calling the international community to restore the legitimate rights of
the Palestinians.
“The Palestinian cause is a rightful cause and addressing it through bargaining
and trade-offs is unacceptable," the Secretary General of the Middle East
Council of Churches Dr. Souraya Bechealany, said. "Now is the time to achieve
peace, a true peace based on justice away from unilateral decisions that flout
the relevant UN resolutions." MECC considers that the Deal of the Century
contradicts with Palestinians' will to establish a Palestinian State and their
right of return.
Salameh Says $1 bn Sent Abroad
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 31/2020
The governor of Lebanon's central bank said that $1 billion had been transferred
out of the country, despite tight restrictions on withdrawals as the protest-hit
country faces a liquidity crisis. Governor Riad Salameh's comments came amid
suspicions of politically motivated capital flight that are the subject of a
probe launched late December. "Of the $1.6 billion that was withdrawn (from the
Lebanese banking sector) between October 17 and the end of the year... one
billion dollars were transferred abroad by Lebanese," Salameh said Thursday in
an interview with the France 24 TV news channel. Since October 17, Lebanon has
been rocked by an unprecedented protest movement against an entrenched political
class seen as corrupt and incompetent. The protests coincided with an
increasingly crippling shortage of dollars, prompting banks to impose tight
restrictions on withdrawals and transfers overseas. Protesters have accused
bankers of complicity with the political class and suspect politicians of
transferring funds abroad despite the restrictions and a prolonged local bank
closure when protests first broke out.
Salameh said the central bank's investigation "would focus on the $1 billion",
but that it would "take some time". The other $600,000 that were taken out of
Lebanese banks during the period in question were capital deposits held by
foreign banks, he added. He noted there had been reports of "politicians, senior
civil servants and bank owners" involved in capital flight, but said a probe is
necessary to identify those responsible. A report by the Carnegie think tank in
November said that nearly $800 million left Lebanon between October 15 and
November 7, when most citizens could not access their funds because banks were
closed due to protests. Salameh on Thursday played up the country's monetary
stability, despite the Lebanese pound losing more than a third of its value
against the dollar on the parallel market in recent weeks. "The rate will stay"
the same, he said, referring to the peg of 1507.5 pounds against the dollar. On
the street, the currency has been trading at around 2,000 pounds to the
greenback.
Diab Says Solutions 'Not Difficult', Slams Acts of
Vandalism
Naharnet/January 31/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Friday noted that economic and financial solutions
are “not difficult” to achieve, during a meeting with a delegation from Economic
Committees. “The meeting coincides with the meetings of the panel drafting the
ministerial Policy Statement, so that the Committees can be a partner in this
drafting,” Diab told the delegation, which was led by ex-telecom minister
Mohammed Choucair.”“I know well that the economic institutions’ situation is
difficult and I know that they are resisting the circumstances and facing major
challenges,” Diab added. “The situation in the entire country and across all
sectors is facing difficulties, but we must be a little patient, on the hope
that the government will be able to make an achievement that would lead to
overcoming the crisis that Lebanon is going through,” the PM went on to say.
Commenting on the recent protests that turned violent in central Beirut, Diab
said “unfortunately, those destroying institutions are distorting the image of
the real protest movement and its reformist goals.”He added: “I know your
keenness on the country, that’s why I call on you to continue despite the
hardships, because the solutions are not difficult, and God willing we will
manage to alter the course of deterioration so that the economy restores its
cycle.”
Wazni Meets Sfeir Who Says Deposits are Safe
Naharnet/January 31/2020
Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni held talks with Head of the Association of Banks in
Lebanon Salim Sfeir who assured that bank deposits are safe and there are no
plans to impose haircut on deposits. “The meeting was positive,” said Sfeir,
“the deposits are there and will stay there. No plans for haircut,” assured
Sfeir after the meeting. According to information obtained by LBCI, it was
agreed during the meeting to make a substantial reduction in interest rate in
general, i.e. on deposits and loans, which will contribute to bettering the
economy, help borrowers and reduce the burden on public finances. A grinding
liquidity crunch has hit Lebanon, where unprecedented protests since October 17
have railed against the political class and a deepening economic crisis. Since
September, banks have restricted the amount of dollars that can be withdrawn or
transferred abroad. Although no formal policy is in place, most have arbitrarily
capped withdrawals at around $1,000 a month, while others have imposed tighter
restrictions.
Report: ‘Judicial, Industrial’ Workshops Kick Off Today at Grand Serail
Naharnet/January 31/2020
Two workshops will be held at the Grand Serail on Friday the first related to
the economic situation and national industry, the second to the judicial
situation and monitoring bodies in a bid to provide the needed mechanisms to
enhance the fight against corruption, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday.
The meetings complement Wednesday’s financial and monetary workshop held at the
Grand Serail as the country grapples with an economic crisis since October.
Prime Minister Hassan Diab will chair Friday’s economic workshop to be held in
the presence of related ministers, heads of economic bodies from the Chambers of
Commerce and Industry in Lebanon and the Industrialists Association. The meeting
aims to set a plan to revive economic and productive movement and provide the
dollar for the import of complementary raw materials relaunching the industrial
movement, and encouraging Lebanese exports, said the daily. In the afternoon, a
judicial and inspection workshop will be held in the presence of relevant
ministries, specialized public prosecution offices, heads of supervisory and
disciplinary bodies and the Accounting Bureau. Sources taking part in these
workshops told the daily: “The direct goal is to amplify efforts to combat
corruption, and to regulate the work of monitoring institutions in accordance
with good management and governance to enlarge the size of the national
economy.”
Old Building Partially Collapses in Tripoli
Naharnet/January 31/2020
The upper part of an old building collapsed in the northern city of Tripoli,
resulting in no injuries, the National News Agency said on Friday. NNA said the
building, which had a bakery, partially collapsed causing material damages only.
The building had an earthen roof and was old and cracked. This is the second
building collapsing this week. On Tuesday, an old building in Beirut’s
neighborhood of Ashrafieh collapsed causing material damages and destroying some
cars parked nearby.
Geagea: Deducting from People's Bank Deposits Unacceptable
Naharnet/January 31/2020
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Friday warned against deducting from
citizens’ bank deposits, as he said that the government should take a host of
measures before thinking of paying Lebanon’s foreign debt. “Touching people’s
bank deposits is unacceptable and the Strong Republic bloc is totally against
it,” Geagea said after a meeting for the bloc. “The new government must devise a
complete and comprehensive plan and come up with an integrated package of
reformist measures… before we can discuss and think of the issue of paying
Lebanon’s foreign debt,” Geagea added.
Diab chairs meeting of ministerial statement drafting
committee
NNA/January 31/2020
Prime Minister Dr. Hassan Diab, chaired Friday evening at the Grand Serail the
seventh meeting by the committee tasked to draft the ministerial statement. The
meeting was attended by Deputy PM, Defense Minister Zeina Akar, and Ministers
Damianos Kattar, Nassif Hitti, Ghazi Wazni, Raoul Nehmeh, Imad Hoballah, Ramzi
Moucharafieh, Talal Hawat, Marie Claude Najm, Dr. Manal Abdel Samad, and
Vartineh Ohanian, as well as the Secretary General of the Council of Ministers
Mahmoud Makieh, and Presidency Director General, Antoine Choucair, PM Advisor
Khodor Taleb.
Diab meets Cypriot Foreign Minister, Japanese ambassador,
Social and Economic Council delegation
NNA/January 31/2020
Prime Minister, Dr. Hassan Diab, met this Friday afternoon at the Grand Serail
with Cypriot Foreign Minister, Nikos Khristodoulidis, accompanied by a
delegation. Talks reportedly touched on the bilateral relations between the two
countries and means of bolstering them at the various levels.
Premier Diab also met with a delegation of the Economic and Social Council,
headed by Charles Arbeed, with discussions reportedly touching on the Council's
role and achievements in the last period, as well as its future plan aimed to
activate its work. The Prime Minister also met with Japanese Ambassador to
Lebanon, Takeshi Okubo, who congratulated him on the new government formation in
Lebanon. Talks also touched on the bilateral relations between Lebanon and Japan
and means to bolster them.
Diab meets heads of supervisory bodies, judicial councils
NNA/January 31/2020
Prime Minister, Dr. Hassan Diab, on Friday met at the Grand Serail with heads of
supervisory bodies, in the presence of Justice Minister, Dr. Marie Claude Najm.
Premier Diab stressed in front of the delegation the importance of fighting
corruption. Diab also met with heads of the Judicial councils, in the presence
of Minister Claude Najm. On emerging, Minister Najm told media representatives
that the Premier stressed during the meeting the need for the judiciary to carry
out its duties and follow up on all dossiers especially those related to
corruption.
Lazzarini from Bkerki: We discussed ways to confront state
of national emergency in Lebanon
NNA/January 31/2020
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi, on Friday welcomed in
Bkerki United Nations Resident Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs in Lebanon,
Philippe Lazzarini, with whom he discussed the general situation in Lebanon and
the region, and the role of the United Nations amid this crucial stage of
Lebanon's history. "I have discussed with the Maronite Patriarch the latest
developments in the country, as well as the impact of the economic situation on
the living conditions in Lebanon," Lazzarini said on emerging. "We tackled the
anxiety and frustration experienced by the Lebanese people who have been
touching the deteriorating situation on daily basis," he added. Moreover,
Lazzarini said that talks with the Maronite Patriarch mainly focused on the
means that could be adopted "to confront the state of national emergency that
Lebanon is witnessing today."
UNHCR concerned at growing anxiety and challenges of
refugees in Lebanon
NNA/January 31/2020
UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, expressed today its concerns over the
deteriorating situation of refugees in Lebanon amid a number of protests outside
its offices. "We fully understand the fears and frustrations expressed by the
persons protesting by our office, many of whom are refugees badly hit by the
deteriorating economic situation in Lebanon," said Mireille Girard, UNHCR's
Representative in Lebanon. "Since the start of the protests, our teams have been
engaging with the refugees in groups and individually to work together on how
best to address the situation," she continued. Obviously, refugees have the
right to express their grievances peacefully, but we are advising them not to
expose themselves outside the boundaries of the law.
UNHCR is also deeply worried about misinformation circulating among some of the
protestors involved in a sit-in who are led to believe that exposing themselves
to the cold and rain or to detention will facilitate or fast-track their
resettlement to a third country. "This is not only misleading but also raises
expectations that can only lead to more suffering and frustration," said the
UNHCR official. The situation of each person and family varies and is assessed
based on its own specificity. Many of the refugees involved in the protest
receive UNHCR's assistance through its cash, winter or shelter programmes or
benefit from its health and education programmes.
Efforts are being deployed by other organizations helping migrants to assist
those among protestors who do not qualify for refugee status and therefore who
do not fall under UNHCR's mandate. "Refugees and migrants are already in a very
difficult situation and we are appealing to everyone to work together on
constructive and feasible solutions. It is critical not to aggravate their
situation." said Girard.
"The current situation reflects the growing anxiety among refugees living in
Lebanon. Many are deeply affected by the worsening economic crisis in the
country, living below the poverty line and having limited capacity to cope.
"Despite Lebanon's remarkable generosity, the challenges faced by refugees on a
daily basis are immense," she added.
To help mitigate the impact of the economic crisis, UNHCR has rapidly mobilized
and been able to expand its winter assistance program to provide a safety net at
this critical period of the year. In total, over 900,000 refugees received
support and vulnerable Lebanese families also benefitted from the programme. We
are also actively reaching out to provide more individual counselling to
refugees in distress through additional hotlines and face to face discussions.
"While we are working hard to further expand assistance, we remain severely
constrained by funding limitations. This is forcing us and other humanitarian
agencies to prioritize the most vulnerable refugees," added the UNHCR official,
noting that the inter-agency humanitarian appeal, the Lebanon Crisis Response
Plan, only received 50 per cent of the money it needs to carry out all its
activities and programmes in Lebanon last year.
"Many refugees hope to be resettled to a third country as they do not see how to
cope with the current situation. While we understand their hope for a solution,
it is important to stress that the number of resettlement places remains
extremely limited worldwide," said Girard. Less than one per cent of the close
to 26 million refugees around the world are resettled to a third country each
year. While the number of refugees resettled out of Lebanon has been sustained
in recent years, thanks to much advocacy, and support by third countries, the
needs far outweigh the number of places available. UNHCR remains committed to
providing protection and assistance to refugees and asylum seekers in Lebanon,
and will continue to work closely with refugees, humanitarian actors and all
concerned at this difficult time for the country, concluded Girard.--UNHCR
A tribute to Houda Kassatly's work highlighting Lebanon's
cultural and environmental heritage at Alice Mogabgab Gallery
NNA/January 31/2020
Alice Mogabgab Gallery - Beirut launched the year of Houda Kassatly under the
theme "From the End of Civil War till the Hirak, the Abused Heritage;
Architecture, Environment, Refugees". The event kicked-off yesterday with a
roundtable discussion about the abused heritage with the participation of Dr.
Nadine Panayot Haroun (Material and immaterial heritage through natural and
cultural components), M. Levon Nordiguian (Beirut and its Houses), Dr. Yasmine
Makaroun Bou Assaf (Houda Kassatly's work in Trablous context) and Dr. Jad
Chaaban (Environment Destruction, Bankruptcy Construction).
Houda Kassatly presented also during the event, her latest book "De terre et de
mains d'homme, la construction d'une maison à coupoles syrienne", published at
Al Ayn Edition, (2019, 240 pages, Arabic and French).
Paying tribute to Houda Kassatly and her committed work is an act of faith in
the rebirth of Lebanon. Since her beginnings in photography (1978), the artist
took on her to highlight Lebanon's cultural and environmental heritage, both
under constant bullying and degradation.
Since 1995 Alice Mogabgab Gallery - Beirut accompanied the artist in her many
fights against orchestrated amnesia, against overwhelming and devastating
corruption, against massive destructions of the heritage; all scourges that
dominated the daily lives of Lebanese in past three decades. It is a fact that
the work of this artist constitutes an essential testimony, on both scientific
and artistic level; a work that deeply question, challenge and disturb a public,
surrendered to the euphoria of reconstruction.
Form the end of the Civil War until the Hirak, the abused heritage;
architecture, environment, refugees. In 365 photos, spread into five
exhibitions, throughout the year, Houda Kassatly revisits the architectural and
handworker splendors of Beirut and Trablous; the ecological wealth of remote
Lebanese regions to Dalieh site in Beirut, the tragedy of Palestinian and Syrian
refugees in their dreadful daily life, in Lebanon camps.
The photos of Houda Kassatly are stripped of all artifice. The natural light
cherishes and preserves the human dimension of the subject; whether it is a
paysage, a still life or a portrait. The strict framing accentuates and renders
the beauty of the subject with a splendid accuracy. In each and every work, time
is suspended, so the moment preserves the memory of the land, its people and
their traditions.
Exhibitions Dates:
" January 30 - March 21: Dalieh the Threatened Shore
" April 7 - May 23: Refugee's Camps, the Unsustainable Precariousness
" June 9 - July 25: Tripoli of the Orient; Plural City
" September 15 - October 31: Sacred Trees, Sacrificed Trees
" November 10 - December 26: Beirut the Iconography of an Absence
Health Minister Says Baby Milk to be Subsidized by BDL
Naharnet/January 31/2020
Baby milk has been added to the list of essential imports subsidized by
Lebanon’s central bank, Health Minister Hamad Hasan announced on Friday. “An
agreement has been reached with Lebanon’s central bank (Banque du Liban) on
adding infant formula to the list of items subsidized by the bank,” Hasan said
in a statement issued by his office. “Accordingly, the Ministry of Public Health
will begin implementing the new standards for the pricing of baby milk in
Lebanon for ages ranging from zero to 12 months,” the statement said. “The price
will not exceed LBP 12,000 for ordinary milk and LBP 13,200 for milk with a
special formula,” the statement added. In September 2019, the central bank said
it would facilitate access to dollars for importers of petroleum products, wheat
and medicine amid a dollar shortage crisis in the country. "Banks that issue
letters of credit for the importation of petroleum products (petrol, fuel oil
and gas), wheat and medicine will be able to ask the Banque du Liban to ensure
the value of such credits in U.S. dollars," the central bank said. The mechanism
requires that a "special account" be opened at the central bank, and at least 15
percent of the value of the credit be deposited in it in U.S. dollars, as well
as the full value in Lebanese pounds, it said, adding that the central bank
would take 0.5 percent from each transaction. Lebanon is grappling with a
free-falling economy and an escalating liquidity crisis. The dollar exchange
rate in the parallel market has shot up from the pegged rate of 1,507 pounds to
the greenback to around 2,200. Banks have meanwhile imposed restrictions on
withdrawals and transfers.
Palestinians Rally in Bourj al-Barajneh against Trump
Initiative
Associated Press/Naharnet/January 31/2020
Dozens of Palestinians rallied Friday in the crowded Bourj al-Barajneh refugee
camp after Friday prayers, carrying Palestinian flags and pictures of the al-Aqsa
mosque, in protest at U.S. President Donald Trump's Middle East initiative. They
chanted "We would die for Palestine to live" and "Revolution until we set
Palestine free". "Palestine is not for sale, even if it were for millions upon
millions. If (Trump) gave all of his money we wouldn't sell to him," said
58-year-old Fatima al-Khatib.The Palestinians have rejected the Trump plan,
which heavily favors Israel and would allow it to annex all of its Jewish
settlements, along with the Jordan Valley, in the occupied West Bank. The
Palestinians were offered limited self-rule in Gaza, parts of the West Bank and
some sparsely populated areas of Israel in return for meeting a long list of
conditions. The plan also anticipates $50 billion of investment in the future
Palestinian state and describes several ambitious development projects, without
saying where the money would come from. Trump's Mideast plan would situate the
Palestinian capital on the outskirts of east Jerusalem, beyond the separation
barrier built by Israel. The rest of Jerusalem, including the Old City, would
remain Israel's capital.
Lebanon looks to combat capital flight
The Arab Weekly/January 31/2020
Lebanon central bank governor Riad Salameh announces investigation into $1
billion-worth of transfers abroad. LONDON - Lebanon has moved to combat “capital
flight” after it emerged that $1 billion has already been transferred out of the
country despite restrictions on withdrawals.
According to local reports, Lebanon’s central bank informed local lenders to
settle debt securities and Certificates of Deposit in client accounts, part of
emergency measures to put a lid on capital flight from the protest hit country
which is facing increasing liquidity problems.
In an internal circular issued on January 30 and effective for six months, banks
in Lebanon are ordered to settle the value and interest of debts, Bloomberg
reported. The move comes as part of a broader move to ensure sufficient
financial liquidity in Lebanon. Banking restrictions already ban most transfers
abroad and limit dollar and local-currency withdrawals. Despite such measures,
Lebanon Central Bank governor Riad Salameh revealed that significant capital had
been transferred out of the country over the past few months. "Of the $1.6
billion that was withdrawn (from the Lebanese banking sector) between October 17
and the end of the year... one billion dollars were transferred abroad by
Lebanese," Salameh said on January 30 in an interview with France 24. The
remaining $600,000 that was withdrawn from Lebanese banks during this period
were capital deposits held by foreign banks, Salameh added. Salameh announced an
investigation into how so much money was transferred, but acknowledged that
results would “take some time”He also acknowledged there had been reports that
“politicians, senior civil servants and bank owners” were involved in capital
flight but called on observers to wait for the investigation’s report. Questions
about who was transferring money abroad and how are being raised after a report
by the Carnegie think tank in November revealed that nearly $800 million left
Lebanon between October 15 and November 7. During this period, the vast majority
of Lebanese could not access their funds because banks were closed due to
anti-corruption protests. Lebanon is one of the most indebted countries in the
world and is currently facing its worst financial crisis in decades with
investors increasingly concerned that Beirut could default on its next bond
payment in March amidst ongoing anti-corruption protests and political turmoil.
Lebanon’s protesters should not lose hope
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/January 31/2020
Explaining the details of the budget vote presented to the Lebanese Parliament
by the newly appointed government this week is a difficult task, but it is a
good symbol of both the current situation and what is to come. The most
interesting point was the action of the Future Movement led by previous Prime
Minister Saad Hariri, who had prepared the budget himself. He called on his MPs
to join the session, enabling a quorum to be obtained, but then had them vote
against the budget. He knew very well that his MPs’ votes would not be enough to
derail the budget and thus the spending program — which is oblivious to the
current financial crisis — was approved. His action was basically aimed at
allowing the new Hezbollah-controlled government to pass the budget, while
pretending to oppose it. This was, therefore, not welcomed by militants nor the
protesters, and rightly so.
If you were lucky enough to have understood this budget vote tragicomedy, then
it will be clear that new Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s government is nothing
more than a continuation of Hariri’s. The only difference is that its appearance
now reflects its content — there are no more disguises. Hezbollah was in control
during Hariri’s time in office and still is now: No more, no less. It also seems
clear that Hezbollah can still count on Hariri’s continued support for the new
government. He no longer represents a credible opposition. The opposition to
Hezbollah and the system is in the streets. The slogan, “All means all” will not
fade away anytime soon.
There has thus been much speculation on what stance US President Donald Trump’s
administration will take toward the new government. One thing that is clear is
that the US will keep opposing Hezbollah and will treat it as the Iranian proxy
it is. It will hence look closely at the actions taken by Diab and increase its
pressure, especially if the government takes unilateral decisions or uses excess
violence against the protesters. But the US’ margin for maneuver is tight as it
is an election year and other files might prove to be more pressing. Meanwhile,
it seems that French President Emmanuel Macron is leading the European position
and will support the new Hezbollah government, while trying to find solutions
for Lebanon’s economic crisis. The main objective of his policy is continued
appeasement with Iran and it is deliberately in contrast with the US position.
It is even possible that Macron will try and convince the US to soften its
stance against the newly formed government.
This is also nothing new. In late 2018, Macron was preparing for a visit to
Tehran, and his objective then was to initiate negotiations after the US
withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. It is seemingly for this reason that Macron
looked then and still looks today to appease Hezbollah in order to create a
special relationship for France and Europe with Iran. He was aware of
Hezbollah’s control then and reportedly encouraged Hariri to continue working
and protecting Hezbollah’s interests internationally under the false claim that
they were indissociable from Lebanon’s.
The French and European position is clear and, beyond regional stability, it has
a lot to do with business interests. French and German companies benefited from
contracts with Iran reaching the vicinity of €30 billion ($33 billion) following
the signing of the nuclear deal in 2015. Lebanon is a small price to pay in
order to please the Iranians. Once again, this partly explains why France and
Germany have given the cold shoulder to protesters in Lebanon, while giving full
support to the regime represented by Hezbollah, with the coverage of President
Michel Aoun and Hariri.
It is becoming a much tougher situation for Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah as
he is becoming the focus of the protests.
What does this mean for Lebanon, as the risk of sovereign default looms and the
country might soon be in desperate need of foreign assistance? If the US does
not lose its focus on pressuring Hezbollah and the Iranian regime, then there is
little France can do. It will be difficult for Hezbollah to navigate US
objections and it will be forced to accept heavy concessions in favor of the
protesters if Lebanon urgently needs an international bailout. The other
solution for Hezbollah would be total confrontation, which is unlikely given the
regional situation. However, if the US gets sidetracked from the Lebanese file
for any reason, then Hezbollah will be able to escape international pressure,
mainly thanks to France and other European nations, but also thanks to any
Iranian terror action in other, more sensitive, regions. It is, nevertheless,
becoming a much tougher situation for Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah as he is
becoming the focus of the protests.
One final, game-changing issue is what the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC)
capacities will be in the aftermath of Qassem Soleimani’s demise and how that
will impact Hezbollah. The IRGC is Nasrallah’s lifeline, true master and
financial sponsor. Any change, such as a succession war among the upper
echelons, could lead to its weakening and have a direct impact on Hezbollah. The
protesters and the US will know how to exploit this, and it could drastically
change the political landscape in Lebanon. The protesters should, therefore, not
lose hope, as many factors could play in their favor.
*Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the
editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.
Iran’s Limited Options against the US
Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya English/January 31/2020
حنين غدار/خيارات إيران في مواجهة أميركا محدودة
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/82785/82785/
Iran’s attack on two US military bases in Iraq last month were promoted as the
beginning of a series of attacks that will eventually drive the US out of the
Middle East. Iran and its regional proxies promised that those attacks were the
first round.
However, almost a month later, the Iranian regime and its proxies seem to be
still figuring out how to retaliate without risking a direct conflict with the
US.
As we speak, there are probably a number of generals in Tehran thinking of the
next steps, but one thing is clear: the Trump administration has drawn a very
clear line in the sand by killing Qassem Soleimani, and this line will probably
not be crossed again. In other words, an Iranian retaliation that would harm any
American – citizen or official – could lead to a more damaging retaliation by
the US.
So what can the Iranian regime do? The people in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon – who
have been protesting against the Iranian regime and its toxic regional influence
for months - did not really buy the rhetoric that Iran has caused the US serious
damage by attacking the Iraqi military bases. To save face, Iran will have to do
something. So what are its options?
Despite numerous statements from the highest-ranking leaders across the region –
including Ali Khamenei and Hassan Nasrallah – indicating the darkest scenarios
for the US and its troops in the region, the much anticipated attack did not
result in any casualties, American or Iraqi. If anything, this is an indication
that the Iranian regime is stumbling.
Iran’s retaliation was a weak and calculated one, accompanied with lots of
bravado and victorious rhetoric. Iran – at the end of the day – has lost its
most significant military commander and the architect of its influence in the
region. That man will not be easily replaced.
The Iranian regime’s main concern will be replacing Soleimani, not as a man but
as the glue that kept all his militias in the region organized and structured.
That will require major effort. The regime will not be looking at just another
commander to replace Soleimani, but at a new strategy to keep the structure from
falling.
Lebanese Hezbollah might be given a bigger role in the region, and Hezbollah’s
elite forces might have to be further stretched out to ensure their militias in
the four countries – Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, are well bonded and the
central command structure does not falter.
Iran will also work to strengthen its anti-America rhetoric with the states it
controls. The Iraqi and Lebanese governments will be pressured to adopt a more
Iran-friendly attitude and decisions, and in contrast, a more aggressive
rhetoric against the US.
But most significantly, Iran will move vehemently to consolidate its power
within Lebanon and Iraq. Since a military retaliation is not an option, due to
all the risks it entails, Iran will move to take over Iraq and put Lebanon
deeper in its pockets. Last week, Lebanon formed its new government – headed by
PM Hassan Diab – but made-up of representative of Hezbollah’s allies in the
political class. For the first time in Lebanon’s history, Iran today controls
the entirety of Lebanon’s government, which would give Hezbollah more access
within state institutions.
In Iraq, Iran seems to be moving in the same direction as the choice of the next
Prime Minister will determine how much Iran can access Iraq’s state
institutions, knowing how significant Iraq is for both the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps and Hezbollah’s financial system.
Of course, these moves have already been challenged by the wide-ranging protests
in Lebanon and Iraq, and that’s why Soleimani had been traveling between Beirut
and Baghdad. To advance its sway within Iraq and Lebanon, Iran might have to
apply more violent methods against these protests. Many of these methods will
backfire in terms of Iran losing more of its popular base among the Lebanese and
Iraqi people, but mainly within the Shia constituencies in these two countries.
Today, the Iranian regime has realized two things: first, that they can no
longer hide behind Arab Shia but will be directly targeted if they threaten the
US via regional militias; and second, that the US’s deterrence in the region has
dramatically increased and strengthened.
January 2020 must have been a very difficult month for the leaders of the
Islamic revolution. Their muted retaliation most probably will not bring about
further US military attacks on Iran and its proxies. However, it might increase
the US policy of “maximum pressure” against the regime through sanctions and
diplomacy. In any case, one thing was clear to the regime when the news of
Soleimani’s assassination reached them: that killing an American – a soldier, a
citizen or a public servant -- is a very hard red line that cannot be crossed
without an unbearably heavy cost.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the inaugural Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington
Institute's Geduld Program on Arab Politics, where she focuses on Shia politics
throughout the Levant. She tweets @haningdr.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2020/01/31/Iran-s-Limited-Options-against-the-US-.html
Shia Militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon Post-Soleimani
Michael Knights, Phillip Smyth, and Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington
Institute/January 31/2020
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/shia-militias-in-iraq-syria-and-lebanon-post-soleimani?fbclid=IwAR3guCa9eKzKq6da79d8zJIhtrQ0VZ0EGjZ70EqBn89QKONgVJhF2pmClNc#.XjSbPguntdY.facebook
Will the various regional militias once controlled by Qasem Soleimani continue
to take sometimes-unwanted direction from Tehran after his death? Read or watch
a spirited conversation with three experts.
On January 28, Michael Knights, Phillip Smyth, and Hanin Ghaddar addressed a
Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Knights, a senior fellow with the
Institute, has conducted two decades’ worth of on-the-ground research in Iraq
alongside security forces and government ministries. Smyth is a Soref Fellow at
the Institute and creator of its interactive Shia Militia Mapping Project.
Ghaddar, the Institute’s Friedmann Visiting Fellow, has worked as a managing
editor and journalist with numerous Lebanese media outlets. The following is a
rapporteur’s summary of their remarks.
MICHAEL KNIGHTS
The late Qods Force chief Qasem Soleimani played a special role within Iran’s
influence-wielding enterprise. He was uniquely close to the Supreme Leader and
had the intelligence, creativity, and political backing to design and execute
the regime’s complex policy of building and commanding a network of proxy
militant groups. Some of his deepest militia contacts were in Iraq, where he
cultivated the loyal and capable Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, another casualty of the
January 3 U.S. strike that killed Soleimani.
That strike holds serious long-term implications for Iraq. By last September,
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had reached its apex of influence next
door, graduating from unconventional warfare to “foreign internal defense”
missions. Having gained so much control in Iraq, the IRGC now needed to maintain
it.
Yet the IRGC and Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces had grown overly reliant on
Soleimani and Muhandis. The U.S. strike broke the IRGC’s momentum and opened
political space in Iraq, which could lead to the confirmation of a better prime
minister very soon. It also disrupted the PMF’s consolidation and created more
competition among the militias. Previously, Muhandis had pushed for his Kataib
Hezbollah militia to take a leading role in this consolidation. Now, however,
the entire militia constellation has room to operate differently, and Kataib
Hezbollah’s standing may be weakened.
The U.S. strike also made Iraqi Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr an even more
powerful player, and he will likely influence the selection of the next prime
minister. Yet even after gaining in prominence and demonstrating his sway
through the January 24 “Million Man March,” he still faces pushback from
elements of his fractured, difficult-to-control movement. Some Sadrists may
drift into the Iranian camp, while others may overlap with the ongoing civilian
protest movement.
As for the Qods Force, it is unlikely to lean on two individual leaders to the
extent it did with Soleimani and Muhandis. Instead, it will probably
redistribute power among several junior leaders, establishing a safer and more
diverse mode of operation.
Going forward, the U.S. government should take three steps to improve its Iraq
policy. First, it should identify and support friendly actors. This includes
defending the demonstrators, listening to the country’s next generation of
leaders, and grooming select young Iraqis for future Track II dialogues. Second,
it should levy credible threats and punishments against Iraqi figures who
deserve them. Third, it should negotiate a sustainable security cooperation
framework with Baghdad.
By carving out a safer and less kinetic military role in Iraq, U.S. policy may
even align with Sadr’s goals. To maintain his legitimacy, Sadr needs to publicly
push for the removal of foreign forces, but that does not necessitate a total
U.S. withdrawal. Rather, it may mean a change in visibility and combat
operations. Soleimani’s death has opened up the possibility of a civil
conversation—after a cooling period—about a new security cooperation framework.
The Sadrists will be integral to this conversation. As for the prospect of
improving U.S. relations with Tehran, that may have to wait until 2021,
following the U.S. and Iranian elections.
PHILLIP SMYTH
Soleimani took a very hands-on approach to leadership. He was skilled at
delegating tasks and playing groups off of one another. Under his watch, Syria
was the largest nexus for Iranian foreign interference, and it remains so after
his death. Tehran’s proxy machinery is already well entrenched there and is
unlikely to be abandoned anytime soon. Bashar al-Assad does not have the power
to dislodge Iran even if he wanted to—and there is no evidence he does. Although
Tehran must still compete with Russian and Turkish influence on the ground,
Syria is its grand strategic prize. It has been creating bases there to aim
missiles at Israel and consolidate control of its territory. Meanwhile, it is
steadily pushing its “resistance” narrative, advancing its ideological goals
through the creation of cultural centers, and grooming local Shia groups.
In the wake of Soleimani’s death, Tehran may expand the model it perfected in
Syria: namely, fostering the creation of numerous smaller groups, placing them
under a general Iranian umbrella to ensure their efficacy, and playing them off
one another in order to keep them under control. Currently, much of the Syrian
territory controlled by such groups overlaps, especially around the border with
Iraq. These areas are home to a large number of bases, Shia conversion centers,
and recruitment efforts. Because they serve as a key section of Iran’s “land
bridge” to the Lebanese border with Israel, they are very important
geostrategically. If the United States launches further military action in
response to Iranian or proxy aggression, it would be better to do so in Syria,
since that would serve the twin goals of avoiding further flare-ups in Iraq and
targeting an important Iranian nexus. The assassination of Soleimani and
Muhandis on Iraqi soil has enabled Muqtada al-Sadr to exploit domestic anger for
his own purposes. Targeting proxy groups in Syria would also send the message
that Washington aims to put an end to Tehran’s transnational project. Operating
inside Syria may be more difficult to do now that the United States has fewer
allies, but any actions it takes there can be more overt. Finally, U.S.
officials should examine how the various Shia groups in Syria and other
countries are interlinked, taking this overlap into consideration when designing
future sanctions.
HANIN GHADDAR
Lebanese Hezbollah remains the most institutionally established of Iran’s
proxies. Yet Soleimani’s death will present more challenges than opportunities
for the group. The Hezbollah-Iran relationship last came to a crossroads in
2011. Up to that point, the group had more room for maneuver, and its leaders
had direct access to the Iranian regime, which often consulted with them on
matters relating to Lebanon and the rest of the Arab world. After 2011, however,
the Syria intervention and Soleimani’s increased micromanagement gradually
shrank the organization’s military and political maneuverability.
Now that Soleimani’s heavy hand has been lifted, Hezbollah seems to believe it
may be able to regain some of the independence it enjoyed before 2011. Yet the
group also understands how difficult its current position is. Hezbollah has been
suffering from decreased resources and personnel, particularly after being hit
with stronger sanctions, losing many elite commanders in Syria, and relying too
much on Soleimani as a military commander. As such, the group is currently
spread too thin to play a much larger role in Iraq or the rest of the Shia
Crescent. Recent domestic protests have only compounded these problems. Unlike
in Iraq, the protestors in Lebanon are challenging their local Shia militia
indirectly—they are demonstrating against corruption, and Hezbollah protects the
corrupt system. The group’s response to these challenges is to consolidate
domestic power. For the first time ever, it has formed a government composed
entirely of Hezbollah allies. Although it will continue to work on precision
missile capabilities with Iran's help, it cannot afford to provoke a war with
Israel until they are ready, so its interim goal is to establish control over
all military and security positions within the government. It is also preparing
for the collapse of the Lebanese economy and state by storing food and goods,
believing it can regain control by offering them as relief amid the deepening
crisis. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has flooded the domestic market with Iranian goods
by continuing its smuggling operations, and exploited Lebanon’s dollar shortage
by hoarding U.S. dollars from Iraq. To enhance Washington’s current
sanctions-based approach, U.S. officials should use the Global Magnitsky Act to
target Hezbollah’s corrupt political allies. This would hurt the group while
simultaneously supporting protesters’ demands for an end to corruption.
Another way to counteract Hezbollah is to refrain from bailing out Lebanon’s
current government. The group’s leaders are adept at manipulating the
international community’s desire for stability in Lebanon. Under this pretext,
they have put forward a Hezbollah-controlled government that will not carry out
substantial reforms. Bailing this administration out would only legitimize the
group’s control over Lebanese politics. To be sure, the economy and government
will likely collapse without a bailout, producing significant humanitarian
consequences. Yet the Lebanese people are willing to accept a failed state if
hitting rock bottom gives them a genuine opportunity to rebuild the system.
*This summary was prepared by Elise Burr. The Policy Forum series is made
possible through the generosity of the Florence and Robert Kaufman Family.
Lebanon’s new cabinet still contends with power of the
street
Simon Speakman Cordall/The Arab Weekly/January 31/2020
“The new cabinet’s links to political parties and sectarian leaders clearly
undermines their ability to undertake serious reforms," said Mona Yacoubian, a
senior adviser at US Institute for Peace.
TUNIS - Lebanon’s new government produced its first budget against resistance
from the street and scepticism from the international community that remains
unconvinced of the body’s ability to steer the country out of its dire
circumstances.
Hopes that the new Lebanese government might restore stability to the country,
which has been rocked by protests since October, were dimmed by anti-government
demonstrators remaining on the streets and continuing calls for a government of
experts, rather than the mostly political body that presides over them. The new
budget, passed by parliament January 27, projects a deficit of around 7% of GDP,
significantly more than the 0.6% promised by its predecessor. However, Lebanon’s
Finance Committee chairman questioned whether that was possible while protesters
and diplomats doubted the projection’s credibility. Demonstrators, eager to end
endemic corruption ingrained in Lebanon’s public life and a turnaround in the
country’s dire economic fortunes, threw stones at police guarding parliament.
Foreign politicians were more circumspect: “The government must put into place
indispensable measures. It’s almost a question of its survival,” said French
Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. Much of the concern over the new government
centres on its ties to Lebanon’s established political class, not least
Hezbollah and its allies, seen by many as being responsible for the country’s
crisis. Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s nomination was backed by the
Iran-allied group, designated a terror organisation by many countries, which is
unlikely to endear it to the foreign donors the country needs. Excluded from the
government was former Prime Minister Said Hariri’s Future Movement, which
enjoyed strong ties with both the West and Gulf countries, the Christian
Lebanese Forces as well as the Druze Progressive Socialist Party.
The task ahead of the new government is hard to overstate. Lebanon’s national
debt stands at around $90 billion, the equivalent of 155% of GDP. The
unemployment rate is 35-40% among young people, who make up the bulk of the
protest movement.
Exacerbating Lebanon’s difficulties is the $1.2 billion Eurobond, due to mature
in March, presenting the faltering Lebanese economy with what the finance
minister termed “a fireball.”
“The new cabinet’s links to political parties and sectarian leaders clearly
undermines their ability to undertake serious reforms that begin to root out
Lebanon’s pervasive corruption,” said Mona Yacoubian, a senior adviser at US
Institute for Peace.
“To the extent that cabinet members are beholden to sectarian leaders and their
prerogatives of maintaining Lebanon’s clientelist patronage system, it will be
very difficult, if not impossible, for the new government to implement policies
that begin to dismantle the most egregious elements of the system,” she said,
noting there remained room to begin to address corruption and offer greater
transparency into the workings of cabinet.
“Unfortunately, the recent passage of the government budget does not instil much
confidence that transparent and accountable governance is in the offing,”
Yacoubian said.
Lebanon has asked international donors for $4 billion-$5 billion in soft loans
to help purchase basic supplies, such as wheat, fuel and medicine, the Daily
Star newspaper reported.
In the long term, Lebanon must be seen to be addressing reforms, including
tackling corruption. That could win release of the $11 billion in international
pledges made at a conference in April 2018.
“We don’t have the luxury of time. We need immediate reform,” Hanin Ghaddar, a
visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said by
telephone.
“Superficial reform is possible but so far the target of any anti-corruption
measures seems to be the political opponents of the current cabinet. They’ll
find corruption there, certainly, but it’s not likely going to be enough to
satisfy either the international community or the street. All of the main
sources of corruption, such as electricity and gas, are tied to the current
cabinet, so looks like they’re going to go unaddressed.”However, with Gulf
countries — traditionally large donors to Lebanon — unlikely to support a
government backed by one of its arch-rivals, Hezbollah, the international
community’s reticence over committing more firmly to the new cabinet vests
significant power with the people. “The US and Europe are looking at the
street,” Ghaddar said. “They don’t want to be seen to be rewarding corruption or
supporting a government without popular support. This gives the protesters a
huge amount of influence over events. If they can keep going, as they look to be
doing, they can drive through change.”
*Simon Speakman Cordall is a freelance writer.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on January 31-February 01/2020
Syria Regime on Verge of Recapturing Idlib Highway Town
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 31/2020
Syrian regime forces were poised Friday to retake the rebel-held town of Saraqeb
in the country's northwest where battles this week killed more than 400
combatants, a monitor said. Russian-backed regime forces have pressed with a
double-pronged push in the Idlib region, home to some three million people, half
of whom have been displaced from other parts of the country. Slowly chipping
away from the south and northeast, they have shrunk Syria's last major
opposition bastion to just over half of Idlib province and slivers of
neighboring Aleppo and Latakia. On Friday, regime forces battled jihadists and
rebels on the edges of Saraqeb, which has been nearly deserted following two
weeks of heightened bombardment, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
The clashes were within 2 kilometers (1 mile) of the town which lies on the
coveted M5 highway that connects the Syrian capital Damascus to second city
Aleppo, said the Britain-based Observatory. Saraqeb also sits at the junction of
the M4, which runs west-to-east across Idlib, linking the coastal regime
stronghold of Latakia to Aleppo, once Syria's industrial hub. Both highways are
coveted by the regime as it seeks to revive a moribund economy after nine years
of war.
If Saraqeb falls in the hands of the government, it would be the second
strategic town in Idlib province to be recaptured by government troops this
week. On Wednesday rebels and jihadists pulled out of Maarat al-Numan, which
also lies on the M5. Some 50 kilometers of the M5 remain outside regime control,
mostly in the western countryside of Aleppo province, which neighbors Idlib,
according to the Observatory. Rebels and jihadists have been locked in fierce
battles with regime forces in western Aleppo since mid-January, in the largest
escalation there since 2016. The fighting in Idlib and in western Aleppo over
the past week has killed 205 pro-government fighters and 220 anti-regime
combatants, the Observatory said. A Syrian military commander who asked not to
be named said that the push in the two provinces aims to secure key highways and
corner rebels and jihadists in a shrinking pocket in central Idlib. Regime
forces near Sarqeb are pushing north, while those in Aleppo are moving towards
them from the south, he told AFP during a government-organised tour of Maarat
al-Numan on Thursday. The Idlib region is dominated by jihadists of the Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham alliance, led by a former Al-Qaeda affiliate. Damascus which
controls more than 70 per cent of Syria has repeatedly vowed to reclaim the
entire country, including Idlib. The violence in the northwest has displaced
more than 388,000 people, according to the United Nations, and killed more than
260 civilians, according to Observatory.
France Arrests Top Syrian Islamist Group Member on War
Crimes Charges
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 31/2020
A senior member of Syrian Islamist armed group Jaysh al-Islam has been arrested
in France and charged with war crimes and torture, a judicial source told AFP on
Friday. The man, born in 1988, a former spokesman of the group, was in France on
an Erasmus student visa and detained in the southern city of Marseille. He
appeared before an investigating magistrate in Paris who charged him with
torture, war crimes and complicity in forced disappearances, said the source.
Jaysh al-Islam is one of several hardline Islamist groups opposing the Damascus
regime that have emerged during the Syrian civil war. It has fought against
Islamic State (IS) jihadists but also been accused by rights groups of abuses.
Erdogan threatens 'military force' against Syria
NNA/AFP/January 31/2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hit out Friday at the Damascus "cruelty",
warning Turkey was prepared to use "military force" again in Syria. "We will not
allow the regime's cruelty towards its own people, with attacks and causing
bloodshed," Erdogan said. Syria was also "continuously threatening our country
with migration," he said during a speech in Ankara."Turkey with complete
sincerity wants Syria's stability and security, and to this end, we will not shy
away from doing whatever is necessary including using military force." He also
said Turkey "could not stand by as mere spectators as new threats come towards
our borders".-
US soldiers hurt in Iranian missile attack up to 64:
Pentagon
AFP, Washington/Friday, 31 January 2020
The number of US troops injured by an Iranian missile strike in Iraq this month
has risen to 64, according to new figures released by the Pentagon. US President
Donald Trump had initially said no Americans were hurt by the missiles fired on
a base housing US soldiers in the country’s west on January 8. Democrats later
accused Trump of trying to downplay the injuries. The American personnel have
been diagnosed with mild traumatic brain injury (TBI), Lieutenant Colonel Thomas
Campbell, a Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement Thursday. The Pentagon said
Wednesday that 50 soldiers were injured in the Iranian strike on the Ain
al-Assad base. The latest total is an increase of 14 on those numbers. Iran
fired on Iraqi bases housing US troops in retaliation for an American drone
attack that killed Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad, raising fears
of war.
Of those diagnosed with TBI, 39 troops have returned to duty, the Pentagon said,
while the rest have either been sent back to the US, are waiting to be sent back
or are currently being evaluated. At the time of the strikes most of the 1,500
American soldiers at the Ain al-Asad base were in bunkers, after they were given
advance warning from superiors.
Brexit is ‘historic warning sign’ for European Union, says
Macron
AFP, Paris/Friday, 31 January 2020
Brexit is a “historic warning sign” for the European Union, French President
Emmanuel Macron said hours before Britain’s departure from the EU, adding that
it meant “we need more Europe”.“This departure is a shock. It’s a historic
warning sign which must... be heard by all of Europe and make us reflect,”
Macron said in a short televised address. Failure to reform the EU had turned
the bloc into a “scapegoat”, he said, adding that faced with China and the US,
“we need more Europe”.
Flag-waving Britons stage noisy Brexit welcome outside
parliament
Reuters, London/Saturday, 1 February 2020
Singing patriotic songs and waving Union Jack flags, thousands of Britons
flocked to a muddy patch of grass outside parliament on a damp Friday night to
watch their moment of history: Britain’s departure from the European Union.
Britain’s 2300 GMT exit from the EU ends 47 years of union with Europe. It also
draws a line under a bitter and divisive four-year wrangle over whether, when
and how the country should cut its ties to the bloc. While Prime Minister Boris
Johnson, synonymous with Brexit because of his role in the 2016 ‘Leave’
campaign, kept a low profile at a private reception in his office, more than
5,000 people gathered just down the road to loudly celebrate the moment. “This
is a fantastic day, A really really fantastic day. It’s been a long time
coming,” said Tony Williams, 53, from south-east London. “We are free, from 11
o’clock, we have done it, and it is a great, great pleasure. We have done
it.”Brexit supporters young and old packed into Parliament Square to hear
Brexit’s other talisman, campaigner Nigel Farage, and revel in a mix of
nostalgia, patriotism and defiance. “I never thought it would happen - my
goodness! I’m not going to get drunk or anything but it’s a remarkable thing to
happen given that the whole establishment of this country was in favour of the
European project,” said Christopher Cook, 73, business owner from Amersham, near
London. A video montage providing a potted history of Britain’s relationship
with Europe drew pantomime boos for proponents of the EU like former Labour
Prime Minister Tony Blair, while anti-EU figures like Johnson, Farage and
Margaret Thatcher were loudly cheered. Attendees sang Land of Hope and Glory,
with words projected on a big screen, there were impromptu bursts of the
national anthem ‘God Save the Queen’, and a live band performed ‘Rule Britannia’
- a centuries-old song celebrating Britain’s one-time naval dominance. The crowd
spilled into surrounding streets, where many defied a ban on alcohol despite a
heavy police presence. Two men wearing Farage masks said the number of officers
was oppressive and threatened to spoil a good night. However, as the clock
ticked down on a decision that has torn at the constitution and divided the
nation from cabinet table to family dinner table, there was no visible
counter-protest from the millions who voted to remain in the EU. Some
self-professed ‘remainers’ had come along to witness the moment for themselves.
“It’s quite a dark day for me personally but of course I’m here to celebrate,”
joked David Robinson, a 38-year-old finance worker, clutching a can of lager. “I
couldn’t not turn up. When the Berlin wall was coming down, you couldn’t just go
home and have a cup of tea.”
Trump’s expanded travel ban targets Nigeria, five other
countries
Reuters, Washington/Saturday, 1 February 2020
US President Donald Trump will issue an expanded version of his travel ban on
Friday that targets prospective immigrants from Nigeria and five other
countries, US officials said, a move that could affect thousands of people and
reignite debate over whether the policy is discriminatory.
Of the six countries added to the ban, four are African nations, leading to
outcry from critics that the administration is bolstering a policy they claim
was originally designed to target Muslim-majority nations. The United States
will suspend the issuance of visas that can lead to permanent residency for
nationals of Eritrea, Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar and Nigeria, acting Homeland Security
Secretary Chad Wolf said during a call with reporters on Friday. The visas
affected are distinct from non-immigrant visitor visas, which will not be
impacted by the ban, Wolf said. The US government also will stop issuing
“diversity visas” to nationals of Sudan and Tanzania, Wolf said. The visas -
which Trump has criticized in the past - are available by lottery for applicants
from countries with low rates of immigration to the United States. Wolf said the
six countries failed to meet US security and information-sharing standards,
which necessitated the new restrictions. The problems Wolf cited ranged from
sub-par passport technology to a failure to sufficiently exchange information on
terrorism suspects and criminals. “These countries, for the most part, want to
be helpful,” Wolf said, “but for a variety of different reasons simply failed to
meet those minimum requirements that we laid out.” The original travel ban -
issued during Trump’s first week in office in January 2017 - barred nearly all
immigrants and travelers from seven countries with majority Muslim populations.
The policy was revised amid court challenges, but the US Supreme Court
ultimately upheld it in June 2018. Trump has made cracking down on immigration a
focus of his 2020 re-election campaign and is expected to press the issue in the
months ahead. His travel ban policy is popular with Republican supporters. The
existing version of the ban includes the Muslim-majority nations of Iran, Libya,
Somalia, Syria and Yemen. North Korea and Venezuela also face visa bars, but
those measures affect relatively few travelers. Those restrictions will remain
in place. The new travel ban will take effect on Feb. 22, according to a DHS
official who briefed reporters later on Friday.
Most visas from Nigeria
Immigrant rights groups and Democratic lawmakers said the expanded ban stemmed
from prejudice against non-white immigrants. Congressman Joe Neguse, a Democrat
from Colorado and son of Eritrean refugees, told reporters on Friday that the
updated ban unfairly singled out allied African nations. “It is un-American to
discriminate against immigrants solely because of where they come from or how
they pray,” Neguse said. In 2015, during Trump’s campaign for president, he
called for “a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United
States.”Three of the nations included in the updated ban - Kyrgyzstan, Nigeria
and Sudan - have majority Muslim populations. Eritrea and Tanzania have sizable
Muslim minorities. Of the new countries hit with visa restrictions, Nigeria
sends the most immigrants to the United States. The US State Department issued
approximately 7,900 immigrant visas to Nigerians in fiscal year 2018, which
began October 1, 2017. Geoffrey Onyeama, Nigeria’s foreign affairs minister,
said he was “disappointed” by the decision. The US State Department will host
meetings in Washington on Monday and Tuesday with Nigeria’s foreign minister and
other Nigerian officials and business leaders.
The administration said the new ban was narrowly tailored.
Investor visas, which lead to green cards, will also be barred. But the
restrictions will not apply to skilled foreign workers entering the United
States on H-1B visas, the DHS official said. Such visas are temporary, but can
lead to permanent status in the United States.
Immigrants already in the United States, or who have approved visas will be
exempt from the ban, the official said. People with pending visa requests - some
of whom have waited years - will be barred. All applicants will be able to apply
for a waiver, a process already in place under Trump’s existing ban. But a
federal lawsuit challenging the administration claims the waiver process is
opaque and difficult to navigate. The visa restrictions will not apply to
refugees, according to the official. Trump’s administration has separately
capped the number of refugees allowed into the United States at 18,000 for the
2020 fiscal year, the lowest level in decades. Belarus, which had been under
consideration for inclusion in the expanded travel ban, took steps to remedy
deficiencies in recent months and will not face visa restrictions, Wolf said.
Trump tells Ethiopian PM deal on huge dam ‘near:’ White
House
AFP, Washington/Friday, 31 January 2020
US President Donald Trump said Friday he is confident that agreement on
construction of what would be Africa’s largest dam on the River Nile is “near.”In
a conversation with Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, Trump “expressed
optimism that an agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was near and
would benefit all parties involved,” the White House said in a statement. Egypt,
Ethiopia and Sudan have gone into overtime in often tense negotiations in
Washington on the project, which Egypt has said would threaten its vital Nile
water supplies. The three countries, which had already missed a self-imposed
January 15 deadline to resolve the dispute, had agreed to meet on Tuesday and
Wednesday in Washington to finalize a deal. The talks are “continuing today for
the fourth day in a row,” the Ethiopian ambassador to Washington, Fitsum Arega,
tweeted on Friday before the White House statement. He renewed Ethiopia’s
insistence that it will not accept any solution unless it preserves his
country’s right to use water from the Nile. At their last meeting, the three
countries reported progress, including an understanding that Ethiopia would only
fill the Grand Renaissance Dam during the rainy season and would base future
water levels on conditions of the Nile. The colossal 1.8-kilometer-long dam,
under construction since 2011, is expected to begin generating power by the end
of this year and eventually double Ethiopia’s electricity. While Ethiopia says
the dam is crucial for its growing economy, Egypt fears the project will disrupt
the river that provides 90 percent of its drinking water. The US Treasury
Department has been leading the talks after Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi
sought intervention from Trump, a close ally.
Britain cuts loose from EU with delight, anger and
indifference
Reuters, London/Friday, 31 January 2020
The United Kingdom leaves the European Union on Friday with a mixture of joy,
anger and indifference, casting off into the unknown in one of the biggest blows
yet to Europe’s attempt to forge unity from the ruins of World War Two. The EU’s
most powerful leaders, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President
Emmanuel Macron, cast Brexit - due at 2300 GMT - as a sad moment that was a
turning point for Europe. The EU warned that leaving would be worse than
staying. In the United Kingdom’s most significant geopolitical move since its
lost its empire, it turns its back on 47 years of membership and must begin
charting its own course for generations to come. At the stroke of midnight in
Brussels, the EU will lose 15 percent of its economy, its biggest military
spender and the world’s international financial capital - London. Brexit
supporters burned an EU flag outside Downing Street, where Prime Minister Boris
Johnson lives. Some EU supporters were mocked by a larger group of Brexiteers
nearby chanting “Bye-bye EU” and “Shame on you” to the tune of Auld Lang Syne.
“This is the moment when the dawn breaks and the curtain goes up on a new act,”
said Johnson, one of the leaders of the “Leave” campaign in the 2016 referendum.
“It is a moment of real national renewal and change.”Johnson planned to
celebrate with English sparkling wine and a distinctly British array of canapés
including Shropshire blue cheese and Yorkshire puddings with beef and
horseradish. In Brussels, the European Union’s flag was removed from outside the
British embassy. The official symbol of the EU, a circle of 12 stars on a blue
background, was pulled in, leaving only Britain’s Union Jack flying on the
flagpole. Leaving the EU was once far-fetched: the UK joined in 1973 as “the
sick man of Europe” and less than two decades ago British leaders were arguing
about whether to join the euro. But the turmoil of the euro zone crisis, fears
about mass immigration and a series of miscalculations by former Prime Minister
David Cameron prompted the 52 percent to 48 percent vote to leave.
Anticlimax?
The final parting of the EU’s most reluctant member is an anticlimax of sorts.
Beyond the symbolism of the Union Jack flag also being lowered at the European
Council building in Brussels at 7 p.m. (1800 GMT), put away with the flags of
non-EU countries, little will change until the end of 2020. By then, Johnson has
promised to strike a broad free trade agreement with the EU, the world’s biggest
trading bloc. “These negotiations certainly won’t be easy,” Merkel said,
cautioning London that if it deviated from the EU’s rules then its access to the
EU’s market would be limited. Macron said Britain it could not expect to be
treated the same way as when it was part of the club. “You can’t be in and out,”
Macron told the French in a televised address. “The British people chose to
leave the European Union. It won’t have the same obligations, so it will no
longer have the same rights.”US President Donald Trump has long supported Brexit.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Britons wanted to escape the “tyranny of
Brussels”.Some Britons will celebrate and some will weep - but many will do
neither.
‘Independence day’
For proponents, Brexit is “independence day” - an escape from what they cast as
a doomed German-dominated project with a doomed single currency that is failing
its 500 million people. They hope departure will herald reforms to reshape
Britain and propel it ahead of its European rivals. Karen Evans, a 47-year-old
hairdresser carrying a Union Jack, dismissed the concerns of “Remainers”: “They
lost. They need to get over it. They are bad losers. This is a day for
celebrating.”Opponents believe Brexit is a folly that will weaken the West,
shrivel what is left of Britain’s global clout, undermine its economy and
ultimately lead to a less cosmopolitan set of islands in the northern Atlantic.
They say Britain will now have little option but to cosy up to Trump. David
Tucker, a pro-European of 75, said he had come to London from Wales to march in
the hope that others would keep alive the hope that Britain would one day rejoin
the EU: “It is a tragedy,” he said. “We were once part of the world’s most
powerful economic bloc. Now we are just an inward-looking island that is going
to get smaller.”“It’s a very sad day,” said engineer Roger Olsen, 63. “I think
it is a disaster. An absolutely wrong thing. And I think time will prove that we
have taken the wrong course.”Brexit was always about much more than Europe. The
referendum exposed deep divisions and triggered soul-searching about everything
from secession and immigration to empire and modern Britishness. Brexit has
tested the very fabric of the supposedly united kingdom: England and Wales voted
to leave the bloc but Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay. Scotland’s
first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, used the moment to demand a second independence
referendum. A poll on Thursday suggested a slim majority of Scots would now back
a split because of Brexit. But after the twists and turns of three
and-a-half-years, many voters are simply happy the wrangling is over. “I just
wanted to see it done with,” said Lee Stokes, a 44-year-old project manager.
Brexit heralds new beginning, new ties with EU: Johnson
AFP, London/Saturday, 1 February 2020
Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised a “new era of friendly cooperation” with
the European Union on Friday as Britain prepared to leave the bloc after almost
five decades. In a public address broadcast one hour before Brexit, Johnson
acknowledged there may be “bumps in the road” ahead but promised the departure
was an opportunity for “stunning success”. “The most important thing to say
tonight is that this is not an end but a beginning,” he said in a pre-recorded
statement from Downing Street. Britain remains as split over Brexit as it was in
the 2016 referendum. But after more than three years of wrangling, it leaves the
EU at 11:00 pm (2300 GMT). “For many people this is an astonishing moment of
hope, a moment they thought would never come,” Johnson said. “And there are many
of course who feel a sense of anxiety and loss. “And then there’s a third group,
perhaps the biggest, who had started to worry that the whole political wrangle
would never come to an end. “I understand all those feelings, and our job as the
government -- my job -- is to bring this country together now and take us
forward.” He said the EU, which Britain joined in 1973 and of which it has been
often a reluctant member, had many “admirable qualities.”But it had evolved over
the last half century “in a direction that no longer suits this country.” “We
want this to be the beginning of a new era of friendly cooperation between the
EU and an energetic Britain,” he said. “A Britain that is simultaneously a great
European power, and truly global in our range and ambitions.”He added: “When I
look at the potential of this country waiting to be unleashed, I know that we
can turn this opportunity into a stunning success. “And whatever the bumps in
the road ahead, I know that we will succeed.” He said Britain would use its
“recaptured sovereignty” to deliver change, whether by controlling immigration,
“liberating our fishing industry” or doing free trade deals. Brexit was
“potentially a moment of real national renewal and change,” he argued, promising
to invest in public services, infrastructure and new technology across the
country. “We have obeyed the will of the people. We have taken back the tools of
self-government,” he concluded. “Now is the time to use those tools to unleash
the full potential of this brilliant country and to make better the lives of
everyone in every corner of our United Kingdom.”
US appoints special envoy for South Sudan crisis
AFP, Washington/Friday, 31 January 2020
The United States on Friday named a special envoy to seek progress in the crisis
in South Sudan, whose rival leaders have repeatedly missed deadlines to end
their devastating conflict. The State Department said that Stuart Symington, a
retired ambassador with long experience in Africa, “will lead US efforts to
support the peace process and a successful political transition in South Sudan.”
The United States has been a major supporter of the impoverished,
majority-Christian nation that won independence from Sudan in 2011, contributing
around $1 billion a year in food and other humanitarian aid.
A fallout soon after independence between President Salva Kiir and rebel leader
Riek Machar has triggered brutal violence that has left almost 400,000 people
dead and displaced four million more. African mediators have twice given the two
leaders extensions in an agreement to form a unity government, with the latest
deadline looming in mid-February. The United States has voiced anger at the
bickering duo’s failure to resolve differences and has imposed sanctions on two
sitting ministers, accusing them of obstructing peace efforts.
US Senate rejects witnesses in Trump impeachment trial,
paving way for acquittal
AFP, Washington/Saturday, 1 February 2020
The US Senate voted on Friday against calling witnesses and collecting new
evidence in President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, clearing the way for
Trump’s almost certain acquittal next week. By a vote of 51-49, the
Republican-controlled Senate stopped Democrats’ drive to hear testimony from
witnesses like former national security adviser John Bolton, who is thought to
have first-hand knowledge of Trump’s efforts to pressure Ukraine to investigate
a political rival, former Vice President Joe Biden. Those actions prompted the
Democratic-controlled House of Representatives to formally charge Trump with
abuse of power and obstruction of Congress in December, making Trump only the
third president in US history to be impeached. He denies wrongdoing and has
accused Democrats of an “attempted coup.”The Senate approved on a party-line
vote a timeline for the rest of the trial that calls for a final vote on the
impeachment charges at 4 p.m. EST (2100 GMT) on Wednesday. Closing arguments
will begin at 11 a.m. EST (1600 GMT) on Monday, with four hours split between
the prosecution and defense. That will give the four Democratic senators who are
running to be their party’s presidential nominee time to get to Iowa for that
night’s first nominating contest. In between the closing arguments and final
vote, senators will have an opportunity to give speeches on the Senate floor,
but the trial will not formally be in session. Trump will deliver his State of
the Union speech to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday night.
The Senate is almost certain to acquit Trump of the charges, as a two-thirds
Senate majority is required to remove Trump and none of the chamber’s 53
Republicans have indicated they will vote to convict. Trump is seeking
re-election in the November 3 vote. Biden is a leading contender for the
Democratic nomination to face him.
In Friday’s vote on witnesses, only two Republicans - Mitt Romney, the 2012
Republican presidential nominee, and Susan Collins, who faces a tough
re-election in November in her home state of Maine - broke with their party and
voted with Democrats.
“America will remember this day, unfortunately, where the Senate did not live up
to its responsibilities, where the Senate turned away from truth and went along
with a sham trial,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters. After
the first vote on calling witnesses, Schumer offered more amendments seeking to
call witnesses and obtain more evidence, but the Senate rejected them all.
Romney and Collins were again the only Republicans to support calling Bolton as
a witness. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said the trial should end as soon
as possible. “The cake is baked and we just need to move as soon as we can to
get it behind us,” he told reporters.
New details
Friday’s vote on witnesses came hours after the New York Times reported new
details from an unpublished book manuscript written by Bolton in which the
former aide said Trump directed him in May to help in a pressure campaign to get
Ukraine to pursue investigations that would benefit Trump politically. Bolton
wrote that Trump told him to call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to
ensure Zelenskiy would meet with Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, a key
player in the campaign, the Times reported. Robert Costello, a lawyer for
Giuliani, called the Times report “categorically untrue.” Bolton’s lawyer and
spokesman did not respond to requests for comment. The Times previously reported
that Bolton - contradicting Trump’s version of events - wrote the president told
him he wanted to freeze $391 million in security aid to Ukraine until Kiev
pursued investigations of Democrats, including Biden and his son, Hunter Biden.
Democrats had said the news illustrated the need for the Senate to put Bolton
under oath. But Republicans said they had heard enough. Some said they did not
think that Trump did anything wrong, while Senators Lamar Alexander and Rob
Portman said his actions were wrong but did not amount to impeachable conduct.
Senator Marco Rubio said impeachment would be too divisive for the country, even
if a president engaged in clearly impeachable activity. Lisa Murkowski, a
Republican moderate who Democrats had hoped would vote with them to extend the
trial, said the case against Trump was rushed and flawed. She told reporters she
was “angry at all sides” and the prospect of a tie vote on witnesses weighed
heavily on her decision.After the Senate adjourned on Friday, she said she knew
how she would vote on the charges but she would not reveal it yet. “Will I share
it with you tonight? I’ve had so much drama today, I’m just going to chill.
How’s that? Was that fair?” Murkowski told reporters.
Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan say final agreement on Blue Nile dam
by next month
Reuters, Washington/Saturday, 1 February 2020
Ministers from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan said on Friday a final agreement will
be signed by the end of February on the giant Blue Nile hydropower dam that
sparked a years-long diplomatic crisis between Cairo and Addis Ababa. The
countries have been at odds over the filling and operation of the $4 billion
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), under construction near Ethiopia’s
border with Sudan on the Blue Nile, which flows into the Nile river. The three
regional powers convened in Washington for what were supposed to be two days of
meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday to complete an agreement after talks earlier
this month, but negotiations dragged into Friday and disbanded without a final
accord. In a joint statement with the United States and the World Bank after the
talks, the nations said they had agreed on a schedule for staged filling of the
dam and mitigation mechanisms to adjust its filling and operation during dry
periods and drought. The nations still have to finalize several aspects of the
dam, including its safety and provisions for the resolution of disputes, the
statement said. But it added that a final agreement on the dam would be signed
by all three countries by the end of February.
“Documents to be signed will be further deliberated by legal team supported by
technical team. This will continue next week to complete comprehensive document
within 30 days,” Sileshi Bekele, Ethiopian minister for water, irrigation and
energy, said on Twitter. The United States has hosted several rounds of talks in
Washington with ministers from the three regional powers and the World Bank
after years of trilateral negotiations failed. US President Donald Trump, in a
call with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Friday, expressed optimism that
an agreement on the dam was near and would benefit all parties involved, a White
House spokesman said. The dam is the centerpiece in Ethiopia’s bid to become
Africa’s biggest power exporter but has sparked fears in Cairo that Egypt’s
already scarce supplies of Nile waters, on which its population of more than 100
million people is almost entirely dependent, would be further restricted. Even
without taking the dam into account, largely desert Egypt is short of water. It
imports about half its food products and recycles about 25 billion cubic meters
of water annually. Addis Ababa, which announced the project in 2011 as Egypt was
beset by political upheaval, denies the dam will undermine Egypt’s access to
water.
China virus death toll rises to 258 with 45 new fatalities
AFP, Beijing/Saturday, 1 February 2020
The number of confirmed deaths from China’s coronavirus outbreak has risen to
258, as authorities in hardest-hit Hubei province on Saturday reported 45 new
fatalities. In its daily update, the provincial health commission also said
newly confirmed cases of infection in Hubei continued to grow at a steady pace,
with 1,347. Most of the country’s deaths and overall cases have been in Hubei, a
populous province in China’s center. The virus is believed to have emerged in
December in the provincial capital of Wuhan in a meat market that sold wild
game. The epidemic has spread far and wide as Chinese people traveled across the
country and the world for the Lunar New Year holiday that started last week. It
has since ballooned into a global health emergency with cases in more than 20
countries. The top Communist Party official in Wuhan expressed “remorse” on
Friday, saying local authorities acted too slowly in containing the virus.
China chides ‘mean’ US for travel warning as virus impact
spreads
Reuters, Shanghai, Beijing/Friday, 31 January 2020
The United States angered China on Friday with a warning to Americans not to
travel there because of a coronavirus epidemic that has rattled the global
economy with increasing disruption to business supply lines. Originating in the
Chinese city of Wuhan, the flu-like virus first identified earlier this month
has resulted in 213 deaths in China. Wuhan and the surrounding region are in
virtual quarantine. More than 9,800 people have been infected in China and more
than 130 cases reported in at least 25 other countries and regions, with Russia,
Britain, Sweden and Italy all reporting their first cases on Thursday or Friday.
“Do not travel to China due to the novel coronavirus first identified in Wuhan,”
the US State Department said, raising the warning for China to the same level as
Afghanistan and Iraq. Beijing, which has only just started to mend tattered
trade ties with Washington, responded sharply. It noted the World Health
Organization (WHO) has commended Chinese containment efforts and not recommended
travel or trade curbs. “The World Health Organization urged countries to avoid
travel restrictions, but very soon after that, the United States did the
opposite,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said. “It’s truly
mean.”Many other countries have also advised citizens to put off non-urgent
travel to China. After reporting its first two cases of the illness, Russia on
Friday restricted direct flights to China, its biggest trade partner. Panama’s
canal authority said vessels that had passed through countries where coronavirus
had been confirmed had to report that to authorities. Singapore, a major travel
hub in Asia, stopped entry of passengers with a recent history of travel to
China and also suspended visas for Chinese passport holders.
Global reverberations
With major fallout inevitable for China’s economy, which is the world’s second
largest, global shares were heading for their biggest weekly losses since August
on Friday. The outbreak could “reverberate globally,” Moody’s said. In the
latest impact to big name corporations, South Korea’s Hyundai Motor said it
planned to halt production of a sport utility vehicle this weekend due to a
supply disruption caused by the outbreak. Sangyong Motor said it would idle its
plant in the South Korean city of Pyeongtaek from Feb. 4-12 for the same reason.
Home appliance maker Electrolux issued a similar warning. French carmaker PSA
Peugeot Citroen said its three plants in Wuhan will remain closed until
mid-February. After holding off as the crisis grew, the WHO said on Thursday
that the epidemic did constitute a public health emergency of international
concern, a designation that triggers tighter global containment measures and
coordination. However, WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
reiterated in a series of tweets on Friday that his organisation had confidence
in China’s capacity to control the 2019-nCoV virus.“We would’ve seen many more
#2019nCoV cases outside China by now, and probably deaths, if it were not for
the government’s efforts and the progress they’ve made to protect their own
people and the world,” he tweeted. “Travel restrictions can cause more harm than
good by hindering info-sharing and medical supply chains and harming economies.
We urge countries and companies to make evidence-based, consistent decisions.”
Virus epicenter
The roughly 60 million residents of Hubei province, where Wuhan is the capital,
have had movements curbed to try and slow the spread of the disease. But some
people were leaving and entering the area by foot on a bridge over the Yangtze
river, a Reuters witness said, and infections have jumped in two cities flanking
Wuhan. Wuhan’s Communist Party chief said the city should have acted earlier to
contain the virus. China’s statistics show just over 2 percent of infected
people have died, suggesting the virus is less deadly than the 2002-2003
outbreak of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). But economists say its
financial impact could be bigger than SARS, which killed about 800 people at an
estimated cost of $33 billion to the global economy, since China’s share of the
world economy is now far greater. The WHO has reported at least eight cases of
human-to-human transmission - as opposed to people coming infected from China -
in four countries: the United States, Germany, Japan and Vietnam. Thailand said
it too had such a case. Rising public alarm over the epidemic has brought a wave
of anti-China sentiment abroad and led airlines to cancel or reduce flights,
with airline crews pressuring carriers to act. US carriers Delta Air Lines and
American Airlines became the latest major airlines to suspend flights after the
US travel advisory. Governments around the world are evacuating citizens from
Hubei. A plane with 83 British and 27 foreign nationals landed in Britain on
Friday, while the United States issued a quarantine order for 195 Americans
evacuated to California this week. Japan, with 14 confirmed cases, has sent
three flights to bring citizens home.
Nearly 200 Americans airlifted from China placed under
coronavirus quarantine
Reuters/Saturday, 1 February 2020
Nearly 200 Americans evacuated from China and voluntarily confined to a
California air base for 72 hours of coronavirus screenings were placed under a
mandatory 14-day quarantine on Friday, as US health officials intensified
precautions against spread of the disease.
The move by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), its first
quarantine in 50 years, was announced a day after the State Department issued
its strongest warning against travel to China due to an epidemic of the new
virus, which has claimed more than 200 lives.
“We are preparing as if this is the next pandemic, but we are hoping that is not
the case,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center For
Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, in a telephone interview from the
agency’s headquarters in Atlanta. The United States angered China on Friday
after it issued a travel warning over a coronavirus epidemic that has been
declared a global emergency and led to increasing supply problems for
businesses. Originating in the Chinese city of Wuhan, the flu-like coronavirus
first identified earlier this month has resulted in the deaths of 213 people in
China, out of a total number of cases approaching 10,000. The quarantine order
requires all 195 Americans airlifted from Wuhan to remain isolated in special
housing at March Air Reserve Base near Los Angeles for the entire 14-day
incubation period of the disease. The two-week period runs from the time they
left China on Tuesday. “This is a precautionary and preventive step to maximize
the containment of the virus in the interest of the health of the American
public,” the CDC said in a statement.
Screening test limited
The CDC said on Wednesday, the day the evacuees landed, that they were being
kept, on a voluntary basis, at the base for at least 72 hours while they
underwent medical evaluation for symptoms of the virus and CDC laboratory
tests.The plan then was to allow the passengers to return to their homes, absent
any indication of exposure or illness, leaving state and local health
authorities to continue monitoring the evacuees through the remainder of the
incubation period. That plan would have permitted members of the group to take
public transportation home. CDC officials said on Wednesday that people
incubating the infection before symptoms appear are generally not regarded as
contagious. But Messonnier on Friday cited emerging evidence that the virus can
be spread by someone who is infected but not yet showing signs of being ill,
which include fever, cough and other respiratory symptoms.
The CDC also pointed to a limitation of the screening test it had developed for
the virus. Even if a test result comes back negative, “it does not conclusively
mean an individual is at no risk of developing the disease over the likely
14-day incubation period,” the agency said in a statement.
“We are looking in people’s noses to see if they have the virus there,” but CDC
is not certain the test is specific enough to identify whether someone is
incubating the virus, Messonnier said. “This test is a point-in-time test that
should not be relied on to predict whether this person will become ill.”
Tried to leave base
The blanket 14-day CDC quarantine for all 195 evacuees was instituted after one
of the passengers, who was not identified, sought to leave the base without
permission on Wednesday night. He was immediately slapped with an individual
quarantine order issued by Riverside County health authorities.
It was not clear whether that incident played a role in the CDC’s quarantine
order on Friday. As of Thursday, none of the group at the base had exhibited
signs of the disease, local health officials said. The evacuees, who were flown
aboard a government-chartered cargo jet to California after a refueling stop in
Alaska, consist of State Department employees from the US Consulate in Wuhan,
their immediate family members and some other Americans who were welcomed to
join the flight, the CDC said. The State Department said on Friday it is working
with US and Chinese agencies to arrange for additional flights of Americans out
of Wuhan. Washington also plans to evacuate non-essential government employees
and family members from the US Embassy in Beijing and consulates in Chengdu,
Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenyang due to the coronavirus outbreak, a State
Department official said on Thursday. The CDC has tallied six confirmed US cases
of coronavirus, none fatal, including the first known transmission of the virus
from one person to another within the United States - a couple in Illinois.
Indian police kill man holding 20 women, children hostage
AFP, Lucknow/Friday, 31 January 2020
Police shot dead a man holding around 20 women and children hostage at his house
in northern India after a 10-hour standoff, state officials said on Friday. The
hostages who were held at gunpoint were safe, principal secretary home Awanish
Kumar Awasthi said after the raid at the house in a village in Farrukhabad in
Uttar Pradesh state. The hostage taker was serving a life sentence for murder
and was out on parole, he added. Two policemen and a villager were injured in
the rescue operation. After the siege, a group of incensed villagers stormed the
house where the children had been kept and attacked the hostage-taker’s wife,
Awasthi said. The woman died from her injuries early on Friday, he said. The
abduction took place after the man had invited some children and women from the
village to his house, saying he was throwing a birthday party for his daughter.
Police said his motive for holding the children was not clear.
China Says No Need for 'Unnecessary Panic' over Virus
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 31/2020
China is decisively working to control the deadly outbreak of the novel
coronavirus, its ambassador to the U.N. said Friday, insisting there was no need
for countries impose "excessive measures" like border closures. "There is no
need for unnecessary panic, and no need for excessive measures," Ambassador Chen
Xu told reporters in Geneva. The U.N.'s World Health Organization on Thursday
declared the outbreak a global health emergency, but said it was not
recommending any international trade or travel restrictions and urged the
numerous countries already taking such measures to reconsider.
But with the disease -- which has killed 213 people and infected nearly 10,000
in China -- spreading to some 20 nations, governments, businesses and worried
people around the world were taking matters into their own hands. A range of
countries have asked their nationals not to travel to China, airlines have
suspended flights to the country, and several nations have gone so far as to ban
entry by Chinese travelers, and especially those from Wuhan, the city in central
Hubei province where the virus first surfaced last month. Chen emphasized that
the WHO had declared a global health emergency due to the threat of spread in
other countries, and not because the agency lacked confidence in China's
handling of situation. Indeed, when he made the announcement Thursday evening,
WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stressed that the "declaration is not a
vote of no confidence in China. On the contrary, WHO continues to have
confidence in China's capacity to control the outbreak." Chen said he hoped that
WHO's declaration would prompt countries to listen to the U.N. agency's
recommendations. "I hope that a calm, rational, scientific and objective
attitude will be adopted", he said. "We don't believe it is advisable to take
all of these measures, unnecessary or excessive measures to cut off the airline
or to shut down the border." A WHO spokesman also warned earlier Friday that
measures like closing official border crossings could be counterproductive, and
could even accelerate the spread of the virus since people would seek unofficial
and unmonitored routes. Chen pointed to the extreme steps China has taken to
stop the spread of the virus, which include effectively quarantining more than
50 million people in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei province. Such measures, he
said, had prevented significant spread of the virus beyond China's borders, with
only around one percent of those infected so far in other countries. "We have
the capacity to defeat the disease... We are confident to win the fight against
this epidemic."
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on January 31-February 01/2020
Iran can obtain nuclear weapons far quicker than widely
recognized
Andrea Stricker/Al Arabiya/January 31/ 2020
After infiltrating a Tehran warehouse two years ago, agents from Mossad,
Israel’s spy agency, seized a massive collection of old plans, blueprints,
electronic files and documents related to Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
Material from this hidden archive demonstrated how the Islamic Republic had
achieved far more in the area of nuclear weapons development, particularly the
process of weaponization, than previously thought.
The extent of its progress has worrying implications as the regime scales back
its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA). As Iran reduces the amount of time required for it to
build nuclear weapons, US and allied governments should urgently push the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to fully characterize and account for
Iran’s nuclear weapons activities.
The cache of top secret documents from Iran’s clandestine archive show the
Islamic Republic had a structured, full pace effort called the Amad Plan, which
sought by mid-2003 to make five nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them.
As international inspectors encroached in 2003, the regime decided to disperse
the most damning of its illicit activities and experiments to non-civilian
sites.
Materials from the archive add significantly to a previous body of evidence
gathered by the IAEA and governments about covert weaponization-related
experiments and processes in Iran.
The Israeli government released archival materials to private research
institutes, whose assessments provide a public accounting of Iran’s
weaponization prowess, and therefore, its abbreviated timeline to a nuclear
weapon. Iran previously denied that it ever had a nuclear weaponization program,
but the archive’s materials show these claims to be a clear exercise in
disinformation.
Iran in fact had a weaponization program, which it called the Amad Plan’s
“Project 110.” This included high explosives manufacture and testing; nuclear
weapons design; production of a shock wave generator to initiate nuclear
explosions; work on a neutron source for the warhead core; and creation of other
necessary nuclear weapons components. The archive also provided locations of
previously unknown sites.
Nuclear weaponization is an obscure and complicated procedure. It draws on
physics, chemistry, metallurgy, engineering and other applications to assemble
weapons-grade fissile material inside a warhead and create its explosive
capability. To calculate how long it would take Tehran to produce a functional
nuclear weapon, it is essential to evaluate the success of its weaponization
efforts.
The length of time required for a country to produce just the fissile material
for an atomic weapon – in this case, highly enriched uranium – has become known
as its “breakout time.” However, a holistic assessment of breakout time ought to
include the critical step of weaponizing this fissile material. This kind of
comprehensive estimate helps governments to develop better responses and
countering actions.
Prior to the nuclear deal, governments and independent experts generously
estimated that Iran would need up to a year or more to make a warhead after it
produced the requisite weapon-grade material.
Now, the nuclear archive’s contents make clear that Iran’s weaponization
timeline may be much shorter – as little as a few months. Moreover, Iran’s
recent actions have compressed the timeline for it to produce enough fissile
material, from seven to 12 months to just four or five months. The weaponization
clock, contrary to previous beliefs, does not add on much more.
The IAEA has never got to the bottom of Iran’s past nuclear weapons work, and
the JCPOA required only a perfunctory IAEA investigation before the deal’s
parties would allow it to go into effect.
Predictably, Iran stonewalled and provided incomplete or false answers to the
IAEA’s queries. Even though the contents of the nuclear archive have shown that
prior investigations were deficient, the IAEA has been hesitant to push for
complete answers out of concern that this would further weaken the deal.
As Iran works to reduce its breakout time, governments should urge the IAEA to
hasten and deepen its probe into the nuclear archive. This will entail
investigating the full range of Iran’s past nuclear weapons work, including, for
example, visiting the people, sites and equipment named in the archive or
elsewhere. The IAEA will also need to review paper and electronic documentation
in-country that may corroborate the archive and other materials. It will also be
necessary to visit and inspect research institutions and restricted-access
sites, as well as follow any new information where it leads.
Iran, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, is subject to
comprehensive safeguards. This gives the IAEA a mandate and a duty to establish
the absence of work on nuclear weapons within Iran’s territory.
With the JCPOA’s future unclear and a replacement nuclear deal seemingly far
off, it is more crucial than ever to account for what the regime achieved in the
area of weaponization and under the Amad Plan more broadly. The risks are too
great to ignore.
*Andrea Stricker is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies where she conducts research on nonproliferation, Iran, North Korea,
and other security policy topics. She is an expert on nuclear weapons
proliferation and illicit procurement networks. She tweets @StrickerNonpro.
Iran on cusp of new era
Alireza Nader/The Washington Examiner/January 31/ 2020
The State Department released a video earlier this month showcasing the rights
Iranians enjoyed before a radical Islamist dictatorship came to power in 1979.
Many Iranians and Iranian Americans celebrated the video on social media, but
there was also a backlash from critics who condemned the video for “whitewashing
the human rights record of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi,” Iran’s prerevolutionary
monarch. The legacy of the shah is destined to remain controversial, yet the
critics miss the point: The State Department is reaching out effectively to
millions of Iranians struggling for freedom after 40 years of the Islamic
Republic’s brutal and tyrannical rule.
As a crashing economy and mass protests weaken the clerical regime, Iranians
struggling for a better future take a measure of comfort and even inspiration
from nostalgic memories of the better lives they or their parents had before
1979. Yet acknowledging the past is very different from wishing to repeat it.
For many in Iran, the shah’s reign marked a golden era of industrial
modernization, economic growth, international prestige, and private freedoms. At
the same time, the shah was autocratic. Yet Iran has experienced a Pahlavi
revival in recent years.
Many demonstrations in the past two years have featured slogans supporting the
Pahlavis, including, “Come and save us, crown prince,” a reference to exiled
Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who appears to have a considerable following both
within and outside Iran. Pahlavi is a popular guest on the major
Persian-language broadcasts based outside of Iran, such as Manoto and Iran
International. Even BBC Persian, known for pro-regime (reformist) sentiments,
has been forced to feature him. Pahlavi also appears to have a widespread
following on social media, such as Telegram, Instagram, and Twitter.
For now, one cannot rigorously assess Pahlavi’s popularity inside Iran. Nor do
positive feelings toward the shah or the crown prince mean that Iranians want a
new monarchy. Many Iranians likely do not know precisely what they want next,
but a decisive majority probably don’t want the Islamic Republic. Memories of
the Pahlavi era help Iranians to conceive a future better than the present. It’s
smart and certainly not historically dishonest for the State Department to show
that it shares this understanding of the past.
Prerevolutionary Iran had its own darkness, but the shah was not the
bloodthirsty ogre depicted by left-leaning Western and Iranian intellectuals and
journalists. In his book, Fall of Heaven: The Pahlavis and the Final Days of
Imperial Iran, Andrew Cooper details the falsehoods whispered into the ears of
Western journalists by Iranian revolutionaries regarding the atrocities
committed by the shah’s regime. Abolhassan Banisadr, a close aide to Ayatollah
Ali Khameini and later the Islamic Republic’s first president, admitted to
Cooper that he and his team lied about the scale of human rights abuses
committed by the monarchy in order to turn the West against the shah.
While there were grave human rights violations under Pahlavi, they pale compared
to the atrocities of the Islamic Republic. According to Cooper, executions and
the killing of protesters under the shah may have numbered in the low hundreds.
The current regime killed an estimated 1,500 protesters in just the final months
of 2019. Its early years were also bloody. There were several thousand killings
in 1988 alone. The nostalgia for the Pahlavi era is, in part, rooted in this
juxtaposition. Today, Iran is known for things unimaginable before 1979,
including terrorism, gender apartheid, the hanging of gays, the mass murder of
Syrians, lethal sectarian strife in Iraq, and the killing of Israelis and
Americans.
Some Iranians may actually favor a return to the Pahlavis. Many anti-regime
protests in the last two years have featured the cry of, “Return to Iran, our
shah,” and, “What a mistake we made to have a revolution.” But Iran’s modern
history clearly demonstrates a growing desire for constitutional, representative
government. Pahlavi knows this and supports liberal democracy for his homeland.
To build a better future, both the Iranian people and their friends in the
United States must recognize the successes as well as the mistakes of the past.
Iran is a dismal place today, but Iranians have reason to hope. The Islamic
Republic is a volcano of discontent. Large, countrywide demonstrations against
the theocracy keep erupting. Iranians are ever bolder and more explicit in what
they want.
It certainly behooves Washington, both Democrats and Republicans, not to improve
the financial health of a regime that so brutally oppresses its own people. This
is, of course, exactly what President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal did. Democracy
isn’t a dirty word among the Iranian people; it shouldn’t be a far-fetched idea
for Americans struggling to develop a coherent Iran policy.
*Alireza Nader is a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense
of Democracies.
U.S. renews waivers on Iran nuclear work, but sanctions top
Iran nuclear official
Humeyra Pamuk, John Irish/Reuters/January 31/ 2020
WASHINGTON/PARIS (Reuters) - The Trump administration on Thursday said it will
allow Russian, Chinese and European companies to continue their work at Iranian
nuclear sites, arguing that their presence makes it harder for Tehran to develop
nuclear weapons. But the United States also imposed sanctions on Iran’s Atomic
Energy Organization (AEOI) and its chief, a move the Iranian entity’s spokesman
described as a sign of Washington’s “despair.”
The Trump administration, which in 2018 pulled out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal
and reimposed sanctions on Iran, will let the work go forward by issuing waivers
to sanctions that bar non-U.S. firms from dealing with the AEOI.
The waivers’ renewal for 60 days will allow nonproliferation work to continue at
the Arak heavy-water research reactor, the Bushehr nuclear power plant, the
Tehran Research Reactor and other nuclear cooperation initiatives.
Tehran has rejected Western assertions that it has sought to develop nuclear
weapons, and on Thursday AEOI spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi reaffirmed that
Iran’s civilian nuclear program will continue “full force.”
“Imposing sanctions ... is a political game played by Washington. These
sanctions have no value and are childish measures,” Kamalvandi told Iran’s Fars
news agency.
Leading Republican senators and other Iran hawks had lobbied intensively to stop
the latest waivers as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to exert more pressure
on Iran after the two longtime foes came toward the brink of war earlier this
month.
“We will closely monitor all developments in Iran’s nuclear program and
Secretary (Mike) Pompeo can end these projects as developments warrant,” Brian
Hook, U.S. special representative for Iran, told a news briefing.
Republican Senator Marco Rubio expressed discontent with the waiver renewal.
“While I am glad to see new sanctions imposed against Iran’s Atomic Energy
Organization and its chief, the administration should terminate the
controversial sanctions waivers on Iran’s civil nuclear program and exert
maximum pressure on the regime in Tehran,” Rubio said in a statement.
The waivers are a rare breather in a hardened U.S. policy toward Iran. The
latest development follows weeks of extreme tension after Washington killed top
Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and Iran retaliated with a missile strike on
bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops.
Under the 2015 deal between Iran and six world powers - Britain, China, France,
Germany, Russia and the United States - Tehran agreed to limit its nuclear
program in return for the lifting of economic sanctions that had crippled its
economy.
Trump unilaterally abandoned the deal in May 2018, and reimposed U.S. sanctions
in a “maximum pressure” campaign designed to force Iran to return to the
negotiating table.
Washington in November terminated the sanctions waiver related to Iran’s Fordow
nuclear plant after Tehran resumed uranium enrichment at the underground site.
“There was a difference of opinion between the U.S. Treasury and State
Department. The Treasury won,” a Western diplomat said. “There is an appetite
for more sanctions, so this was a surprise; but others argue that these waivers
are vital to ensure nonproliferation.”
MORE SANCTIONS
The United States on Thursday placed Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the AEOI, and the
organization itself under U.S. sanctions, Hook said.
The decision to sanction Salehi and the AEOI would have an impact on Iran’s
civilian nuclear program because it has operational control over the program,
including purchasing parts for nuclear facilities.
Last week three Republican senators known to be close to Trump - Tom Cotton of
Arkansas, Ted Cruz of Texas and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina - had called
for the remaining civil nuclear waivers to be rescinded.
“Enough is enough,” the senators and Republican U.S. congresswoman Liz Cheney
said in a joint statement.
The diplomat said the United States had likely opted to extend the Bushehr
waiver because the Russian company targeted also provides nuclear fuel to U.S.
facilities, causing a potential sanctions headache for the administration.
Reporting by Humeyra Pamuk in Washington and John Irish in Paris; Additional
reporting by Daphne Psaledakis and Parisa Hafezi in DUBAI; Writing by John
Irish; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Lisa Shumaker
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The significance of Turkey’s policy on Africa and the driving forces behind it
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/January 31/ 2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week visited three African countries
as part of his tour of the continent. Economic, defense, political and cultural
issues topped his agenda.
His entourage reflected the importance the Turkish leadership places on Africa.
He was accompanied by a large delegation that included his wife, Emine,
intelligence chief Hakan Fidan and a number of ministers, including Foreign
Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Defense Minister Hulusi Akar.
Such visits to African countries have become a routine part of Turkish foreign
policy under the current leadership. Previously, Africa was a relatively
unexplored aspect of Turkish foreign policy, compared with other regions.
The continent was not of much interest to Turkey until the late 1990s. In 1998,
the Foreign Ministry drew up a policy on Africa which included an action plan
that aimed to expand Turkey’s footprint on the continent by improving
diplomatic, economic and cultural ties. It was a milestone in Turkey’s
relationship with the continent.
This new policy owed much to then Foreign Minister İsmail Cem’s multidimensional
approach to foreign policy. Important changes began to take place during his
time in office, between 1997 and 2002, and he played a crucial role in improving
Turkey’s relationships with Middle Eastern countries as well.
As part of this new approach to Africa, President Suleyman Demirel, accompanied
by Cem, paid an official visit to Algeria in 1999. However, political
instability, financial crises and a lack of the necessary tools hindered the
full realization of the policy until the Justice and Development Party (AKP)
came to power in Turkey in 2002.
The new leadership found an opportunity to develop a vision and policies on the
Middle East and Africa that built upon the activism initiated by the previous
regime. Moreover, regional and international developments paved the way for the
AKP to further engage with both regions.
As Turkey’s economic profile grew under Erdogan and his ruling party, Ankara’s
overtures to African nations increased and the scope of the African Action Plan
expanded. After the African Union declared Turkey a strategic partner in 2008,
Ankara had a solid base from which to further develop relations with individual
African countries.
Africa is now a rising economic star and so there is great rivalry on the
continent between a number of international powers. For more than a decade,
Ankara has been devoting a lot of time and energy to fostering close relations
with African countries, and Erdogan’s most recent visit is the latest evidence
of that long-standing approach.
The president’s tour last week took in Algeria, Senegal and Gambia. The first
two countries also featured on the itinerary of his previous trip to the
continent, in March 2018. During that earlier trip he also visited Mauritania
and Mali; this time he went to Gambia, becoming the first Turkish president to
visit the country.
At a time when Turkey’s policy in Libya is dominating the interest of the
international media, it seems Ankara has decided to continue to push ahead with
its Africa policy. There are several driving forces behind this decision.
After uprisings in neighboring countries Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, authorities
in Algeria are very concerned about the possibility of a spillover effect that
might bring unrest. Just as relations between Turkey and Iran developed as part
of the Astana peace process for Syria, so Ankara’s relationship with Algeria has
also entered a new phase.
Algeria is the only country in north Africa that has close relations with Iran
and has opposed any foreign interference in Syria’s internal affairs, while
stressing the importance of resolving the problems through dialogue.
Therefore the inclusion of Algeria in Erdogan’s tour is highly significant,
especially in light of the situation in Libya and the country’s weight in the
region. As Turkey’s economic profile grew under Erdogan and his ruling party,
Ankara’s overtures to African nations increased and the scope of the African
Action Plan expanded. Relations between Turkey and Gambia were established in
1965, when the latter gained independence from British colonial rule. Yet it was
45 years before the African nation established a diplomatic mission in Ankara.
The Gambian Embassy opened in 2010, and Turkey opened its mission in Banjul the
following year.
Mosques and schools play a significant role as soft-power instruments with which
Turkey can enhance its cultural presence in Gambia. It is not surprising,
therefore, that during last week’s visit Turkish officials inaugurated a
refurbished village mosque and school.
During the final stop on the tour, in Senegal, Turkey’s leading charity, the Red
Crescent, opened an office in Dakar. The organization’s first in the country, it
paves the way for the charity’s first humanitarian mission there.
Another important development was the appointment of Africa expert Ahmet Kavas
as ambassador to Senegal. He previously served as Turkey’s ambassador to Chad
from 2012 to 2015. During the era of the current ruling party, special
significance has been given to the appointment of non-career diplomats. Though
diplomatic relations with Senegal began with the establishment of a Turkish
Embassy in 1962, Senegal did not open an embassy in Turkey until 2006.
Turkey’s trade minister has stated that the country will attach increasing
importance in the coming year to Africa, given the continent’s important
potential. Despite challenges, trade remains the most successful element of
Turkey’s African approach. Therefore culture, politics, the economy and security
are the driving forces of Turkish policy approach to the continent.
*Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s
relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz
What the Arab League should tell the US
Daoud Kuttab/Arab News/January 31/2020
An emergency session of the Arab League on Saturday will discuss the Trump
Mideast peace plan — a proposal unveiled at the White House in the presence of
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu but without any Palestinian or Arab
leader present. The Arab position on this issue must be clear without being
bombastic. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said that if Palestinians
reject the US plan, “they should make a counter offer.”
Arabs, including Palestinians, have made an offer and are still awaiting a
reply. The Arab Peace Initiative passed at the Beirut summit in 2002 is a fair,
reasonable and just plan that provides an acceptable solution to the
longstanding Arab-Israeli conflict. That plan acknowledges international law,
makes a reasonable peace offer to the Israelis, and must continue to be the
accepted and principled position of the Arab world.
According to the plan, Arabs will normalize relations with Israel in return for
its withdrawal from all Arab areas occupied in 1967 and an agreed resolution of
the Palestinian refugee problem. The Arab world has unanimously supported this
plan, and the Organization of Islamic Countries has also added its support.
It is not difficult for the Arab League to declare that Arabs will agree to any
reasonable deal that Palestinians accept and reject any unreasonable deals that
Palestinians refuse.
The US plan has been rejected by a wide-ranging number of Palestinians.
Political leaders from all factions, popular movements and everyday Palestinians
have all said no to this one-sided plan. In fact, the US has managed to reunite
Palestinians in opposition to his policy as was demonstrated on Tuesday when
representatives of Hamas and Islamic Jihad joined forces with the Palestinian
leadership to unanimously oppose the plan. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas
also agreed to attend a national unity dialogue meeting in Gaza.
By reiterating the Arab peace plan and standing in solidarity with Palestine,
the Arab League should ensure that Palestinians are not left to deal with this
issue alone. To be consistent with its own policies and direction, the league
must provide a safety net for Palestinians that also protects the Palestinian
leadership regardless of its political position. In addition, the league needs
to provide an economic safety net for Palestinian people to help ease the
sacrifice they will face for supporting a position endorsed by all Arabs and
Muslims.
While it is important that Palestinians make their views clear, and for their
Arab brothers and sisters to support them, it is critical this opposition avoids
acts of violence that will divert attention from the principled positions that
must be publicly declared and reiterated.
The Arab response needs to be focused on Palestinian and Arab rights rather than
dealing directly with some of the outlandish comments made in the US plan. The
Arab response needs to be focused on Palestinian and Arab rights rather than
dealing directly with some of the outlandish comments made in the US plan. It is
important to understand that this agreement is directly connected to the Israeli
elections in March and possibly even the November US poll. There is no need to
stir the pot. It is important to stay on principle without screaming or
shouting. A long-term strategic process is needed — not simply a quick fix, but
a clear agreement and a unified effort that can bring peace and justice through
a framework based on international law.
*Daoud Kuttab is a former professor at Princeton University and the founder and
former director of the Institute of Modern Media at Al-Quds University in
Ramallah. Twitter: @daoudkuttab
A turbulent start for the new decade
Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/January 31/2020
Toward the end of last year, Arab News ran a series of opinion pieces called —
in journalistic parlance — “year-enders,” which highlighted how troublesome the
last decade had been. Some of the writers emphasized how the world — especially
the Arab world — had been turned upside down by armed militias, how 9/11 had
wreaked havoc, how rogue regimes — such as the ones in Baghdad, Damascus and
Tehran — had turned on their people and on their neighborhoods, and how the
world had reaped the harvest of hate that overtook much of the world. In their
articles, our op-ed writers raised optimism and expressed hope that the new
decade would usher in peace and a semblance of normalcy.
However, if January 2020 is any indication, it seems that the new decade is
going to be one bumpy rollercoaster ride. The past 31 days have seen cataclysmic
and far-reaching events.
January started with the elimination of Qassem Soleimani, the dreaded terrorist
from Iran. Of course, this was good in the sense that the former leader of the
Quds Force was the spearhead of Tehran’s regional destabilizing activities, and
had had personal involvement in terrorist operations in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
However, his killing has sent a clear signal that the rule of the game has
changed. For once, Iran was held seriously accountable for its behavior. As
welcome as this was, we must remember that we are dealing with an ideological
entity that is also facing mass protests internally, so the thinking in Tehran
would most likely be “if I am going down, I am taking everyone down with me.”
The first to fall as a result was Iraq. Although many would argue that what this
country is going through today is a direct result of the American mismanagement
of the 2003 war, which rolled out the red carpet for Iranian involvement, today
we risk a complete institutional failure and a full-on surrender to the
Iran-backed militias, which will inevitably crush the hopes of people protesting
in the streets across Iraq.
If January 2020 is any indication, it seems that the new decade is going to be
one bumpy rollercoaster ride.
Another country that is suffering from Iran’s involvement is Lebanon. For over
100 days, people have protested against the corrupt system that has ruled the
country for so long.
Having the most to lose, the Iran-backed Hezbollah opted to challenge the
people, and as a result, the economy is teetering and citizens are not allowed
access to their own bank deposits. Despite a new government in place, there is
no end in sight to the crisis unleashed by people on the street. The people want
a complete and total removal of the old political elite from the corridors of
power. There is a crisis of faith in the ruling elite, and also in the political
class. The politicians seem clueless, and all their shenanigans and infighting
have so far failed to persuade the people to leave the streets and go home. What
we are essentially looking at in Lebanon is one of two possible outcomes: A
complete economic meltdown, or another civil war if any more blood is spilt.
For its part, Turkey too has decided to start the decade with an unwise
adventure by deciding to get militarily involved in Libya. Like so many military
involvements, we all know how they start, but very few can predict how they end.
A close ally of Turkey, and its key backer, is Qatar. The tiny Gulf sheikhdom
seemed to come close to resolving its issues with the Anti-Terror Quartet (Saudi
Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt) toward the end of last year. But as we enter
February, its seems that the leadership in Doha is adamant on continuing with
the behavior that led to its isolation to start with — so no rapprochement
expected anytime soon.
Then you had the US administration’s peace plan for the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. Of course, while one must acknowledge that Palestinian division and
indecisiveness in the past have made a resolution much more complex, Israeli
threats to illegally and forcefully annex more Arab lands will threaten regional
peace further and make any prospects for peace even more remote.
Then came the epidemic from China. Many have already died from the coronavirus,
and the World Health Organization has declared a global emergency. Wuhan, the
city where the virus first appeared and caused panic, is in total lockdown.
Flights to and from China have been canceled, and as a result, the country is
suffering massive economic losses. In a highly interconnected world, these
losses will have a massive but unforeseen negative effect on the world’s health
and economy.
And on the last day of January, Britain came out of the EU. Brexit finally
happened. Britain remains one of the most important nations of Europe and the
world. Its leaving the EU will have far-reaching consequences, not only for
Britain and Europe but also for the whole world. There will surely be new
alignments, new treaties and new laws. Of course, while Prime Minister Boris
Johnson is cheering for it, many of his own people and fellow leaders are
cringing, as the obvious thing for Britain is that it seems that it will get
worse before it gets any better.
What all these events in a mere one month suggest is that we are in for much
turbulence before a new reality kicks in and becomes the new standard — and in
such time, it is honestly a matter of survival of the fittest.
A belated happy new year everyone!
• Faisal J. Abbas is the editor in chief of Arab News.
Le Coran des historiens *( 4 volumes, Éditions du Cerf, 2019, 3408 pages )
In Memoriam, Michel Allard SJ ( 1924-1976 )
Il s’agit d’une première mondiale, ce travail encyclopédique sur le contexte et
la généalogie historique du Coran doublé du commentaire et de l’analyse des 114
versets coraniques, et d’une recension systématique des études coraniques
critiques publiées dans les diverses langues. Ce travail monumental d’érudition,
publié avec le concours de l’École Pratique des Hautes Études, a été dirigé par
Mohammad Ali Moez ( Directeur d’études à l’Ecole des Hautes Études et Senior
Research Fellow à l’Institute of Ismaeli Studies de Londres ) et Guillaume Dye (
Professeur d’Islamologie à l’université libre de Bruxelles ) et il a regroupé
des spécialistes de notoriété mondiale recrutés dans les universités européenne,
américaine et israélienne ( 28 chercheurs ). Il compte trois chercheurs iraniens
de confession chiite travaillants à Paris, Leuven et Londres ( les seuls
chercheurs musulmans ou d’origine musulmane ).
Cette somme impressionnante fait la synthèse de quarante ans de recherches
scientifiques sur les origines complexes du texte coranique, sa formation et son
apparition, sa composition et sa canonisation. Vingt études exhaustives sur le
contexte d’émergence ( Sitz Im Leben ) introduisent l’analyse circonstanciée du
texte, qui se base sur des recherches archéologique, épigraphique, géographique,
linguistique, ethnologique et politique, et de religions comparées. L’intérêt de
ce travail de grande teneur scientifique tient à son accessibilité au public des
non spécialistes, et à la deconstruction du schéma du " Coran incréé " que les
fondamentalistes manipulent à des fins multiples où se mêlent des considérations
diverses d’interprétation littérale du texte, de fidéisme non discursif, et
d’instrumentalisation politique. La restitution du Coran dans son cadre
historique, politique, religieux et culturel de l’Arabie pré-islamique permet de
comprendre les conflits herméneutiques sous jacents à sa compostion, sa
canonisation et sa diffusion. Le conflit sunnite-chiite autour de la
canonisation du texte à l’époque d’Abdel Malek ( 685-705 ) et la dichotomie du
Coran parlant et du Coran silencieux qui requiert l’interprétation de l’imam-guide,
renseigne amplement sur les enjeux politico-exégétique de la formation et de la
canonisation. Sinon, l’analyse systématique des 114 sourates s’articule sur un
axe double: celui de la structure globale de la sourate relayée d’un commentaire
détaillé par verset ou groupe de versets qui explicite l’histoire et l’exégèse
des passages.
La contextualisation du texte permet de comprendre ses référents aussi bien
conceptuel que factuel et de le restituer dans les enjeux politique, religieux
et culturel de l’époque ( les liens avec le judéo-christianisme, le zoroastrisme
et les conflits idéologique et politique propres à l’émergence de l’islam avec
la scission originaire du sunnisme et du chiisme ). La présentation rigoureuse
d’une centaine d’années de recherches scientifiques est non seulement importante
sur le plan académique et du travail en islamologie classique, mais elle devrait
servir de base à la réforme religieuse dans l’islam contemporain: La
déconstruction des idéologies fondamentalistes des salafistes, et la
normalisation de la condition musulmane à l’ère contemporaine, où les
contraintes idéologique et politique du Wahhabisme et du Khomeinisme ont créé le
terreau d’un conflit avec la modernité, les aléas d’une religion politique,
totalitaire et de conquête qui reprend à son compte les schémas de l’Arabie du
VII siècle et son imaginaire conflictuel attesté dans les écrits djihadistes. La
traduction de cette somme en arabe et en anglais est de toute importance pour
inspirer des travaux similaires en milieu musulman, mettre en marche un train de
réformes intellectuelle et pédagogique au sein des institutions islamiques (
nommément la formation des imams ), engendrer une nouvelle conscience critique à
l’endroit des sources scripturaires en islam, et servir de prélude aux réformes
en pays d’islam, où les réformes en matière religieuse sont les prologues aux
réformes sociale et politique urgemment requises.
* Mon intérêt pour les études coraniques remonte à mes premières années d’études
en philosophie ( 1972-1975 ) à l’École Supérieures des Lettres ( le centre
d’études de Lyon III et Lyon II à Beyrouth ). C’est à Michel Allard SJ et Anne
Marie Délcambre que je dois l’intérêt et l’initiation au texte et ses modes
d’interprétation. Je dois signaler le grand travail des jésuites sous la
direction de Michel Allard, Joseph Gauvin, Francis Hours, May Elzière, Jean
Claude Gardin, Mouton T. I et II 1963, l’analyse conceptuelle du Coran, exégèse
et théologie ( il s’agit du premier traitement informatique du Coran ),les
travaux de Paul Nwyia, Exégèse coranique et langage mystique (1970 ) et de Louis
Pouzet, une herméneutique de la tradition islamique, le commentaire des Arba’un
Nawawiya de Yahya al Nawawi, 1986, ( publications de la faculté des lettres de
l’université St.Joseph, collection pensée islamique ), Roland Meynet et Louis
Pouzet, Rhétorique sémitique, textes de la Bible et tradition musulmane,
Cerf-Patrimoines, 1998.
Autrement, la poursuite des études en islamologie classique à l’université de
Paris avec Dominique Sourdel et Jacques Berque,tant pour commenter les travaux
de Montgomery Watt, Muhammad, Prophet and Statesman, 1961, Muhammad at Mecca,
1953, Muhammad at Medina, 1956, et ceux de Maxime Rodinson, Mahomet 1961, islam
et capitalisme, 1966, que pour les cours de Jacques Berque au Collège de France
( 1979 ) sur la lecture et la traduction du Coran, furent des moments cruciaux
dans ma formation universitaire en islamologie, alors que je poursuivais une
thèse en Histoire des idées sur
les origines de l‘Église maronite avec D. Sourdel. L’autre source d’intérêt pour
les études coraniques je la dois aux islamologues maronites, Michel Hayek: le
Christ de l’islam, Seuil 1959, Le mystère d’Ismael, Mame 1964, Les Arabes ou le
baptême des larmes,Gallimard 1972; Youakim Moubarac, les noms du divin dans le
Coran et en épigraphie sud-sémitique, 1956, les études épigraphiques
sud-sémitiques et la naissance de l’islam, 1957, Abraham dans le Coran, 1958, le
Coran et la critique occidentale, 1972...Joseph Azzi, Le prêtre et le prophète,
aux sources du Coran, Maisonneuvelarose, 2001,
ainsi qu’une abondante bibliographie d’ouvrages publiés en Arabe autour de la la
naissance de l’islam. Ainsi que le travail philologique du chercheur libanais au
pseudonyme de Christoph Luxenberger, Die Syro-Aramäische Lesart des Koran, ein
Bitrag zur Entschlüsselung der Koransprache, Schiler und Mücke, 2011, The Syro-Aramaic
Reading of the Koran, a contribution to the Decoding of the Koran, Hans Schiler,
Berlin 2007.