LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 27/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
Give therefore to the emperor the
things that are the emperor’s, and to God the things that are God’s
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew
22/15-22/:”The Pharisees went and plotted to entrap him in what he said. So they
sent their disciples to him, along with the Herodians, saying, ‘Teacher, we know
that you are sincere, and teach the way of God in accordance with truth, and
show deference to no one; for you do not regard people with partiality. Tell us,
then, what you think. Is it lawful to pay taxes to the emperor, or not?’ But
Jesus, aware of their malice, said, ‘Why are you putting me to the test, you
hypocrites? Show me the coin used for the tax.’ And they brought him a denarius.
Then he said to them, ‘Whose head is this, and whose title?’They answered, ‘The
emperor’s.’ Then he said to them, ‘Give therefore to the emperor the things that
are the emperor’s, and to God the things that are God’s.’When they heard this,
they were amazed; and they left him and went away.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News
published on December 26-27/2019
Basil is a Mere Hezbollah Governing Tool/Elias Bejjani/December 26/2019
Evil Iranian Hezbollah Is Toppling Lebanon's Banking Sector/Elias Bejjani/December
25/2019
His Beatitude Patriarch Al Raei: Lukewarm confusing stances/Elias Bejjani/December
25/2019
Christmas Spirit: Forgiveness, Sacrifice and Reconciling/Elias Bejjani/December
25/2019
The Actual Needed Christmas Spirit/Elias Bejjani/December 25/2019
Christmas And The obligations Of The Righteous/Elias Bejjani/December 25/2019
Salameh Says BDL to Inquire about Alleged Money Transfers
Hariri Slams 'Devils of Politics, Merchants of Stances'
Kanaan Declares Budget Approval, Suspension of Defaulting Loans Penalties
Report: Diab Meets Berri away from the Spotlight to Discuss Govt. Formation
Heavy Rain, Strong Winds Pummel Lebanon
Storm Topples Wall, Graves in Old Jewish Cemetery in Beirut
Bad Weather Delays Repatriation of Refugees to Syria
Analysis/In Next Phase of Demonstrations, Lebanon Protesters Are Wielding the
Ultimate Weapon/Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/December 26/2019
German Parliament: Its Resolution to Ban Hezbollah is Just a Legal Charade -
Part II/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/December 26, 2019
Lebanon is prepared to give Hassan Diab a chance. It has little choice/Michael
Young/The National/December 26/2019
Israel’s next underground war/Yonah Jeremy BOB/Jerusalem Post/December 26/2019
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
December 26-27/2019
Iranians call for action after reports of Khamenei ordering violent crackdown
Israel Hits Gaza with Air Strikes after 'Rocket Fire'
Israel's Netanyahu Faces Party Leadership Challenge
Israeli lawmaker aims to oust Netanyahu in Likud primary
Syria Missile Strike Kills 5 Pro-Iran Fighters
Trump Urges Moscow, Tehran, Damascus to Stop the 'Killing of Thousands' in Idlib
Iraqi president says he would rather quit than name PM rejected by protesters
Iraqi Protesters Torch Buildings, Block Roads over PM Pick
Erdogan Says Parliament to Vote in January on Libya Troop Deployment
Turkey to send troops to war-torn Libya amid maritime dispute
China, Russia, Iran to Hold Joint Naval Drills
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on December 26-27/2019
A New French Leader: Joachim Son-Forget/Grégoire Canlorbe/Gatestone
Institute/December 26, 2019
A Likud Primary on Palestinian Defeat/Gregg Roman/The Times of Israel/December
25/2019
Iran is looking at Asia as a lifeline/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/December 26,
2019
Improving education systems is harder than one may think/Nidhal Guessoum/Arab
News/December 26, 2019
Moon-Abe summit: A Christmas gift to the region/Cornelia Meyer/Arab
News/December 26, 2019
The war against Christians/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/December 26/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News
published on December 26-27/2019
Basil is a Mere Hezbollah Governing Tool
Elias Bejjani/December 26/2019
All those Lebanese politicians, activists and even citizens who attack and
criticize Mr. Jobran Basil and portray him as a decision-maker are actually
Dhimmitudes, hypocrites and fear to name Hezbollah, who occupies and runs the
country and totally controls its rulers including Mr. Basil who is an
opportunist, power seeker and a mere governing tool no more no less. Lebanon is
an occupied country
Evil Iranian Hezbollah Is Toppling Lebanon's Banking Sector
Elias Bejjani/December 25/2019
Hizbullah's cancer is systematically & wildly spreading and destroying all the
structural foundations of Lebanon's entity. This Evil Iranian Terrorist proxy
has succeeded in toppling the Lebanese strongest fort that is the banking
sector. Lebanon is an Iranian occupied country.
His Beatitude Patriarch Al Raei: Lukewarm confusing stances
Elias Bejjani/December 25/2019
Our Patriarch Al Raei as always adopts sharply the stance of the last person
that he hears to. Today was not different. His beatitude is with both Hassan
Dian and the Revolution. A Lukewarm position?
Christmas Spirit: Forgiveness, Sacrifice and
Reconciling
Elias Bejjani/December 25/2019
In case you did not yet reconcile with all those whom you have had problems
with, it means you did yet welcome the birth of the Incarnate Lord, who is mere
love, sacrifice, forgiveness and humility
The Actual Needed Christmas Spirit
Elias Bejjani/December 25/2019
Inside each of an angel and a demon. With the birth of the Lord Jesus, let us
bridle and silence Satan and leave the angel free to lead us to the paths of
love and forgiveness
Christmas And The obligations Of The
Righteous
Elias Bejjani/December 25/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/81746/elias-bejjani-christmas-and-the-obligations-of-the-righteous-%d8%b0%d9%83%d8%b1%d9%89-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%8a%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%af-%d9%88%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%a8/
Today in the town of David a Savior has been born to you; he is Christ the Lord.
(Luke 02/11)
Glory to God in the highest, on earth peace, good will toward men (Luke 02/14)
The holy birth of Jesus Christ bears numerous blessed vital values and
principles including love, giving, redemption, modesty and forgiveness.
Christmas is a role model of love because God, our Father Himself is love.
Accordingly and in a bid to cleanse us from our original sin He came down from
heaven, was conceived by the Holy Spirit, born of the Virgin Mary, and became
man.
This is my commandment, that you love one another, even as I have loved you.
(John15/12)
There is no greater love than to lay down one’s life for one’s friends.
(John15/13)
Christmas is way of giving …God gave us Himself because He is a caring,
generous, forgiving and loving and father.
Christmas embodies all principles of genuine redemption. Jesus Christ redeemed
us and for our sake He joyfully was crucified, and tolerated all kinds of
torture, humiliation and pain
Christmas is a dignified image of modesty ..Jesus Christ accepted to be born
into a manger and to live his life on earth in an extremely simple and humble
manner.
Let us continuously remind our selves that when our day comes that could be at
any moment, we shall not be able to take any thing that is earthly with us for
the Day of judgment except our work and acts, be righteous or evil.
Christmas is a holy act of forgiveness ….God, and because He is a loving and
forgiving has Sent His Son Jesus Christ redeem to free us from the bondage of
the original sin that Adam and Eve committed.
Christmas requires that we all genuinely pray and pray for those who are hurt,
lonely, deserted by their beloved ones, feel betrayed, are enduring pain
silently pain, suffer anguish, deprived from happiness, warmth and joy .
Christmas is ought to teach us that it is the duty of every believer to practice
his/her faith not only verbally and via routine rituals, but and most
importantly through actual deeds of righteousness….
Christmas’ spirit is not only rituals of decorations, festivities, gifts and
joyful celebrations…But deeds in all ways and means by helping those who need
help in all field and domains.
Christmas’s spirit is a calls to honour and actually abide by all Bible
teachings and values.
In this realm we have a Biblical obligation to open our hearts and with love
extend our hand to all those who are in need, and we are able to help him
remembering always that Almighty God showered on us all sorts of graces and
capabilities so we can share them with others.
Christmas is a time to hold to the Ten Commandments, foremost of which is
“Honour your father and your mother”.
Christmas is a good time for us to attentively hear and positively respond to
our conscience, which is the voice of God within us.
Christmas should revive in our minds and hearts the importance of fighting all
kinds temptations so we do not become slaves to earthly wealth, or power of
authority.
Christmas for us as patriotic and faithful Lebanese is a time to pray for the
safe and dignified return of our Southern people who were forced to take refuge
in Israel since the year 2000.
Christmas for each and every loving and caring Lebanese is a holy opportunity
for calling loudly on all the Lebanese politicians and clergymen, as well as on
the UN for the release of the thousands of Lebanese citizens who are arbitrarily
and unjustly imprisoned in Syrian prisons.
Most importantly Christmas is a time for praying and working for the liberation
of our dear homeland Lebanon, from the Iranian occupation.
No one should never ever lose sight for a moment or keep a blind eye on the
sacrifices of our heroic righteous martyrs who willing sacrificed themselves for
our homeland, identity, existence, and dignity. Our prayers goes for them on
this Holy Day and for peace in each and evry country, especially in the chaotic
and troubled Middle East.
May God Bless you all and shower upon you, your families, friends, and beloved
ones all graces of joy, health, love, forgiveness, meekness and hope.
Salameh Says BDL to Inquire about Alleged Money Transfers
Naharnet/December 26/2019
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh said that legal measures will be taken to
know the fate of sums of money allegedly transferred to Switzerland, amid an
unprecedented economic and liquidity crisis gripping Lebanon. "All legal
measures needed will be taken to know the fate of money transfers to Switzerland
in 2019 and if they truly happened,” he said in remarks to reporters after an
urgent meeting of the Budget and Finance Parliamentary Committee. The committee
led by MP Ibrahim Kanaan convened in the presence of caretaker Finance Minister
Ali Hassan Khalil and Head of the Association of Banks in Lebanon Salim Sfeir.
Asked whether Lebanon is going to contact Switzerland to inquire on the issue,
Salameh said: “We have to confirm first whether these remittances actually came
out of Lebanon,” noting that inquiries will affect the “politically exposed,
politicians and bank owners.”He assured that traces of transfers can not be
hidden “nothing can be hidden,” he said. Reports say that public funds stolen in
Lebanon were transferred by public figures to Swiss banks. The transfers
reportedly approached 6.5 billion dollars. Lebanon has been rocked by
unprecedented popular protests since October 17 over official mismanagement and
corruption demonstrators blame for a deteriorating economy. In a country where
the local currency is pegged to the US dollar and used in everyday transactions,
banks have gradually restricted greenback withdrawals, causing a dollar
liquidity crisis that has made imports increasingly difficult and expensive.
Hariri Slams 'Devils of Politics, Merchants of Stances'
Naharnet/December 26/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Thursday posted a tweet commemorating
slain minister Mohammed Shatah, who was killed in a December 2013 car bombing in
central Beirut. “Mohammed Shatah was the force of moderation and dialogue in the
era of divisions and extremism and he was the symbol of loyalty and bravery
during the difficult days,” Hariri tweeted. “We miss his wisdom, vision and the
honesty of his stances and wittiness… On his commemoration day I plead to God to
protect Lebanon from the devils of politics and the merchants of stances,”
Hariri added.The caretaker PM and his al-Mustaqbal Movement have recently traded
tirades with President Michel Aoun and Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran
Bassil over the issue of the new government.
Kanaan Declares Budget Approval, Suspension of Defaulting Loans Penalties
Naharnet/December 26/2019
The head of the Finance Parliamentary Committee MP Ibrahim Kanaan on Thursday
announced that the committee has approved the 2020 state budget, slashing
expenses worth LBP 1,000 billion from the draft devised by the government. “The
surplus secured in the budget will provide the needed funds for the health care
of 12,000 self-registered social security beneficiaries,” Kanaan said after a
meeting for the committee with caretaker Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil,
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh and Association of Banks chief Salim Sfeir.
“We discussed the issue of cash withdrawals and we were not convinced with the
answers of the banking sector and we will follow up on the issue in a manner
that respects the right of the people to get their salaries,” Kanaan added. “The
Finance Committee has recommended that it is necessary to facilitate bank
transfers to students studying abroad in order to pay their tuitions and
requirements,” the MP went on to say. Revealing that financial concerns pushed
depositors to withdraw $6 billion from banks, Kanaan noted that a committee has
been tasked with communicating with the central bank and its Special
Investigation Commission to follow up on the issue of the suspected transfer
abroad of $6.5 billion by a number of politicians. Moreover, Kanaan said the
Finance Committee approved the suspension of penalties on “defaulting housing,
agricultural and industrial loans” in the six-month period that follows the
publishing of the budget in the official gazette. “We have approved increasing
securities on deposits from LBP 5 million to LBP 75 million, which would
positively affect and protect small depositors,” the MP added. “We have imposed
inspection on all institutions and prior inspection on grants and loans,” Kanaan
went on to say, noting that the committee has suggested “the direct transfer to
the treasury of the revenues generated from the mobile telecom sector.”
Report: Diab Meets Berri away from the Spotlight to Discuss
Govt. Formation
Naharnet/December 26/2019
Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab has reportedly met with Speaker Nabih Berri
away from media spotlight to discuss the delayed formation of a new government,
LBCI television reported on Thursday. Debt-burdened Lebanon has been without a
fully functioning government since former prime minister Saad Hariri resigned on
October 29 in the face of nationwide protests. Demonstrators are demanding an
overhaul of the political establishment which they deem corrupt and inept,
insisting on a government of independents and experts with no ties to the
country's sectarian parties. Diab, an engineering professor designated last week
to form a desperately-needed government, had asked protesters to give him a
"chance" to form a cabinet of independent experts within four to six weeks. On
Monday, reports said that Diab met with Hussein al-Khalil and caretaker minister
Ali Hassan Khalil – the political aides of Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah. “Diab had already entered the phase of choosing candidates, picking
Shadi Masaad, Demianos Qattar and the ambassador Qabalan Franjieh to be part of
his ministerial team,” the TV network said. It also noted that the nomination of
Qabalan Franjieh was the reason that “infuriated” Marada Movement chief Suleiman
Franjieh.
Heavy Rain, Strong Winds Pummel Lebanon
Naharnet/December 26/2019
A stormy weather accompanied with rain and snow has been battering Lebanon since
Wednesday damaging homes, blockading roads and flooding major highways. In the
governorate of Akkar strong winds destroyed agricultural greenhouses and caused
great damage to the region's crops, the National News Agency reported. High sea
waves stormed one of the houses of Hay el-Bahr along the Akkari beach and
cracked its walls forcing its residents to evacuate, NNA added. Rainwater
flooded the Sarba-Jounieh highway causing heavy traffic jam in the region, and
flooded the parking lot in the Serail of Jounieh.A landslide has partially
blocked the old sea road after Hamat tunnel en route to el-Heri. Vehicles were
trapped in snow on mountainous roads mainly the one connecting Tarshish to Zahle.
In the southern city of Sidon, heavy rain and wind disrupted navigation system
and fishing. Sea waves were so high they reached the shore, said NNA. According
to the meteorological department at Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport,
the storm “Loulou” continues to hit Lebanon and reaches peak today and tomorrow
at noon.
Storm Topples Wall, Graves in Old Jewish Cemetery in Beirut
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 26/2019
A severe storm, carrying heavy rain and strong winds, toppled an old wall and
several graves at a Jewish cemetery in the Lebanese capital on Thursday. The
cemetery in Beirut's Sodeco district, which dates back to the early 1820s, is
Lebanon's only Jewish cemetery and has been closed to the public for many years.
Heavy rain and winds toppled the cemetery's stone wall, tumbling onto several
graves and tombstones that came crashing down. The fallen tombstones with Hebrew
writing on them could be seen from the main street where the wall had collapsed.
Lebanon once had a thriving Jewish community. As many as 15,000 to 22,000 Jews
lived in Lebanon in the mid-1960s, but the various Arab-Israeli wars and
Lebanon's own 1975-90 conflict caused waves of emigration and today, almost none
are left in the country.
The storm, which has been dubbed "Loulou," has lashed Lebanon and also caused
flooding and landslides in parts of the country while the first heavy snow fell
on the mountains, forcing some road closures.
Bad Weather Delays Repatriation of Refugees to Syria
Naharnet/December 26/2019
The repatriation of a new batch of Syrian refugees from Lebanon has been
postponed on Thursday because of bad weather, the National News Agency reported.
Buses were expected to come from Syria to take a group of Syrian wishing to go
back home, but the stormy weather and torrents that hit Lebanon on Wednesday
prevented the buses from arriving to the northern city of Tripoli, NNA. Dozens
of displaced Syrians had gathered in the Rashid Karami International Exhibition
in Tripoli. The General Security Directorate oversees the voluntary return of
refugees. Storm Loulou hit Lebanon Wednesday bringing snow to parts of Lebanon
above 1,400 metres overnight. The storm led to wind speeds of up to 70
kilometres per hour and a raging sea. Many towns are left with impassable roads,
snapped trees and damaged homes.
Analysis/In Next Phase of Demonstrations, Lebanon
Protesters Are Wielding the Ultimate Weapon
Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/December 26/2019
'Until there is a government we trust, there is nobody to pay taxes to': Facing
little room to maneuver, protesters are hitting the regime where it hurts the
most
We won’t pay our taxes or bills until they give us back the money they took,”
read a tweet from a Lebanese Twitter account called “We Won’t Pay” that was
opened two weeks ago.
It represents a new phase in the civil revolt in Lebanon that began in October,
whose casualties so far include Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who resigned that
month. Lebanese President Michel Aoun has tapped Hassan Diab to replace him.
It isn’t clear how long Diab will need to set up a government with a consensus
of support, a process that in the past has taken months before the distribution
of cabinet portfolios was complete. But the people behind the tax protest aren’t
prepared to sit tight and wait patiently. They are calling on the Lebanese to
stop paying their electricity and water bills, municipal taxes, fines and even
their bank loans payments.
“Until there is a government that we trust that can manage the state’s money
properly, there is nobody to pay these taxes to,” the Twitter account holders
explained. They added the reassurance that the electric company doesn’t cut off
service until two or three bills go unpaid. And it takes time before the debt
gets referred to a collection agency.
The penalty for non-payment is no deterrent either. It’s the equivalent of $3,
however high the outstanding debt is. That could also explain why Lebanon’s
electric utility, which has become a symbol of waste and poor management, has
debt estimated at about $2 billion. The power company, which is responsible for
a hefty chunk of Lebanon’s entire government debt, isn’t only plagued by its
failure to collect outstanding bills. Its other problems include bloated
salaries, electricity theft, poor power line maintenance and unreliable power
plants.
The government deficit
It’s no wonder that the power company, more than any other institution in the
country, has become in the target of the protests. Every year the Lebanese
government gives the power company about a billion and a half dollars, mainly to
pay for the fuel it needs. That represents a significant portion of the
country’s budget deficit.
According to a 2016 International Monetary Fund report, the government has
supplied the utility with a sum equivalent to 40 percent of the national debt,
which is 150 percent of Lebanon’s GDP. Those figures are enough to explain the
impossible challenge that any Lebanese government faces.
It’s also clear why people who have to resort to pirated electricity or their
own generators won’t pay the bills to a failing company that hasn’t been able to
supply the country with sufficient power for over 30 years.
The electricity supply may be the most talked-about problem in Lebanon but it
isn’t the only one. Lebanon placed 74th out of the 77 countries whose school
students participated in PISA scholastic achievement testing. An in-depth
analysis of the results by Dr. Ali Khalife of the Lebanese University’s
education department reveals that just 40 percent of the students tested
attained Level 2 out of six levels. The international average is 76 percent. And
only a third of the Lebanese students tested attained Level 2 in reading
comprehension.
Khalife places the blame on poor distribution of resources, inadequate budgets,
outdated methods that have forced Lebanese students to handwrite their tests
rather than submitting their answers digitally and built-in discrimination
against poor regional schools compared to wealthy private ones.
The electricity problem can be solved with money. The education problem will
require profound reform lasting years and a lot more resources than the
government can provide.
Health care in crisis
And when it comes to the level of failure and neglect, the Lebanese public
education system faces stiff competition from the public and private health care
systems. Government hospitals haven’t received any funding in 2019 and are
running out of drugs. Restrictions on the use of the dollar are holding up not
only development plans but even repairs of medical equipment and the import of
spare parts. In November, doctors and medical teams held a warning protest to
bring the crisis to the public’s attention, but in the absence of a government,
there is nobody to direct protests and complaints to.
It was only serious corruption discovered at a government hospital – exposing
massive theft of funds by hospital administrators and the person responsible for
medications there – that managed to spark media attention, but it’s probably not
enough to spur the reforms the sector needs.
In addition to its chronic problems, Lebanon has paid an economic price for
three months of protest and upheaval. Hundreds of restaurants and other
businesses have shut down. Hotel occupancy dropped from 95% in prior years
during the Christmas and New Year season to 30%. Some hotels have closed down
entire floors and laid off staff.
Manufacturing plants requiring dollars to import raw materials have been barred
by banks from transferring dollars abroad. Citizens can’t access their deposits
and ATMs have no dollars.
The still non-existent government of Prime Minister Hassan Diab has no solutions
for all of this. And things aren’t expected to improve any time soo
German Parliament: Its Resolution to Ban Hezbollah is Just
a Legal Charade - Part II
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/December 26, 2019
Gatestone Institute wholeheartedly supports U.S. President Donald J. Trump's
efforts to ban Hezbollah in Europe. The Bundestag resolution, however, calls for
an incomplete ban, which appears aimed at providing the German government with
political cover that would allow Berlin to claim that it has banned the group
even if it has not.
It is utterly implausible that Germany, one of the wealthiest and most
technologically advanced countries in Europe, is unable to ascertain the
organizational structure of Hezbollah within its own borders.
"Six months ago, the AfD presented a resolution in the Bundestag to ban
Hezbollah, a resolution which you vehemently rejected and which since then you
have blocked in caucus.... What is needed is the complete ban of Hezbollah.
Hezbollah's propaganda and terror financing in Germany must be stopped... This,
by the way, is also demanded by the Bundestag's Anti-Semitism Resolution, which
expressly calls for the deportation of supporters of anti-Semitism. If this does
not apply to supporters of Hezbollah, which wants to send Jews to the gas
chambers, and wants to destroy Israel, then to whom could this apply?" — Beatrix
von Storch MP, Alternative für Deutschland [AfD] party, to the Bundestag,
December 19, 2019.
Von Storch noted that the Bundestag's resolution, if implemented by the German
government, would allow Hezbollah's 30-plus German-based mosques and cultural
centers — where the group raises funds and spreads anti-Israel propaganda — to
continue to operate. Moreover, not one of the 1,050 known Hezbollah operatives
now in Germany would be deported.
German member of parliament Beatrix Von Storch noted that the resolution, if
implemented by the German government, would allow Hezbollah's 30-plus
German-based mosques and cultural centers — where the group raises funds and
spreads anti-Israel propaganda — to continue to operate. Moreover, not one of
the 1,050 known Hezbollah operatives now in Germany would be deported. (Photo by
Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
Gatestone Institute recently reported that a December 19 German parliamentary
resolution, which claims to call for a complete ban in Germany of Hezbollah
(Arabic for "The Party of Allah"), actually falls short of demanding a
comprehensive ban of the terrorist organization. A senior US government official
called the article "flat wrong". If only it were.
Gatestone Institute wholeheartedly supports U.S. President Donald J. Trump's
efforts to ban Hezbollah in Europe. The Bundestag resolution, however, calls for
an incomplete ban, which appears aimed at providing the German government with
political cover that would allow Berlin to claim that it has banned the group
even if it has not.
The Bundestag itself has issued a statement which states that it is calling for
an activity ban (Betätigungsverbot) of Hezbollah, but not an organizational ban
(Organisationsverbot) — an important distinction because the activity ban is
legally weaker than the organizational ban.
The Bundestag claimed that it is not calling for a complete organizational ban
of Hezbollah because the group's structures in Germany are "not currently
ascertainable." The Bundestag's statement in the original German clearly states:
"Hezbollah-related association structures, which could justify an organizational
ban, are not currently ascertainable." ("Der Hisbollah zuzurechnende
Vereinsstrukturen, die ein vereinsrechtliches Organisationsverbot begründen
könnten, seien derzeit jedoch nicht feststellbar.")
The Deputy Chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag,
Thorsten Frei, explained:
"Hezbollah-related association structures, which could justify an organizational
ban (vereinsrechtliches Organisationsverbot), are not ascertainable, despite
efforts by the federal government since 2008. An organizational ban is therefore
not an option due to the lack of a verifiable domestic organizational structure.
However, we are free to pursue an activity ban (Betätigungsverbot) that we have
also applied to other terrorist organizations that lack a demonstrable domestic
organizational structure."
It is utterly implausible that Germany, one of the wealthiest and most
technologically advanced countries in Europe, is unable to ascertain the
organizational structure of Hezbollah within its own borders.
More probable is that the German government, for political reasons, has decided
to turn a blind eye to Hezbollah's activities in Germany. In July 2018, the
German foreign ministry, responding to a parliamentary query, claimed that
banning Hezbollah in its entirety would jeopardize Germany's ability to
"maintain a political dialog with all of the relevant political forces in
Lebanon."
Apparently, the German government believes that maintaining a distinction
between a political and military division of Hezbollah is for the benefit of
Israel. In May 2019, the Munich-based newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung reported:
"In internal debates, the German foreign ministry said that it does not want to
jeopardize its relations with Hezbollah, which sits at the government table in
Lebanon. It has more fighters than the Lebanese state army. The German embassy
in Beirut maintains good contacts with Hezbollah, which is always valuable when
there is a need to mediate between Israel and the militia."
The conservative party, Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland,
AfD), the third-largest party in the German parliament, refused to support the
Bundestag's resolution. Addressing the parliament on December 19, AfD MP Beatrix
von Storch explained:
"Six months ago, the AfD presented a resolution in the Bundestag to ban
Hezbollah, a resolution which you vehemently rejected and which since then you
have blocked in caucus. Now, six months later, you collectively are rushing
through the door that we have politically opened. If this would happen with more
AfD proposals, Germany would be in a much better place....
"Nevertheless, your resolution has two central weaknesses. The first weakness is
that you are asking for only an activity ban (Betätigungsverbot). We want a
specific organizational ban (Organisationsverbot). According to the Crime
Fighting Law (Verbrechensbekämpfungsgesetz) of 1994, the activity ban is the
weaker legal means when compared to an organizational ban. There is no reason in
the world why you would fight a terrorist organization with the weaker means and
not the stronger. You are making a loud bark, but you are not biting.
"The second fundamental weakness of your resolution is your justification for
using the weaker means. You write, and I quote, 'Hezbollah-related association
structures, which could justify an organizational ban (vereinsrechtliches
Organisationsverbot), are not ascertainable.' That is objectively false, as
confirmed by the 2017 and 2018 annual reports of Germany's domestic intelligence
agency (Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz, BfV). The 2018 report states, and I
quote, 'In Germany, Hezbollah followers maintain organizational and ideological
cohesion, among other things, in local mosque associations, which are primarily
financed by donations.' Do you even read your own intelligence reports? In case
it is too long for you to read, it is located on page 214. Just check it!
"If you do not want to touch Hezbollah's mosque associations, then this
resolution is pure symbolism politics (Symbolpolitik), and symbolism politics
cannot continue. What is needed is the complete ban of Hezbollah. Hezbollah's
propaganda and terror financing in Germany must be stopped. The mosque
associations that exist must be disbanded, and most importantly, Hezbollah
supporters must be deported. This, by the way, is also demanded by the
Bundestag's Anti-Semitism Resolution, which expressly calls for the deportation
of supporters of anti-Semitism. If this does not apply to supporters of
Hezbollah, which wants to send Jews to the gas chambers, and wants to destroy
Israel, then to whom could this apply?
"Since 1996, we here in Berlin have been forced to tolerate Hezbollah's annual
hateful anti-Semitic spectacle, the so-called al-Quds Day [an annual event held
on the last Friday of Ramadan that was initiated by the Islamic Republic of Iran
in 1979 to express support for the Palestinians and oppose Zionism and Israel].
This must end. We hope that you will have resolved this Hezbollah problem before
the next al-Quds day [May 21-22, 2020]. Please address this issue. Merry
Christmas."
Von Storch noted that the Bundestag's resolution, if implemented by the German
government, would allow Hezbollah's 30-plus German-based mosques and cultural
centers — where the group raises funds and spreads anti-Israel propaganda — to
continue to operate. Moreover, not one of the 1,050 known Hezbollah operatives
now in Germany would be deported.
In any event, the main parties in the Bundestag appear to have reached a
compromise among themselves to ban Hezbollah without really banning Hezbollah.
Unfortunately, as even they admit, the German ban, if implemented, will not
really be a ban.
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Lebanon is prepared to give Hassan Diab a chance. It has
little choice
Michael Young/The National/December 26/2019
Two things can be said about the efforts of Hezbollah and its allies in the Amal
Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) to push through a Lebanese
government that would protect their interests, under the premiership of Hassan
Diab.
First, they apparently succeeded in imposing Mr Diab on a large part of the
protest movement that had been in the streets since October 17. And second,
while the protesters may have taken a wait-and-see approach, Mr Diab does not
enjoy support among his Sunni community. Having been named by several of the
political parties associated with Lebanon’s economic mismanagement, he will
struggle to implement the structural reforms needed for the country to emerge
from its financial crisis.
While Mr Diab began forming his government last Saturday, the signs are that he
would like to lead a government mainly of experts, even if named by the
political parties. While this will not satisfy the demand of the protest
movement for a government of independent technocrats, for now it could buy the
parties in power time to breathe. With the economic situation deteriorating,
people are inclined to give Mr Diab a chance.
The Lebanese have few alternatives. The political crisis that started last
October had dragged on for more than two months when Mr Diab was named. In the
interim, the economy had come to a standstill as banks, in order to survive,
imposed unofficial capital controls while severely reducing the amount of money
people could withdraw from their accounts. The outcome was that many businesses,
unable to operate effectively, laid off workers, provoking a rise in
unemployment at the worst conceivable time.
What Mr Diab intends and what will happen are two different things. Both
Hezbollah and Amal indicated this week that they wanted more overt political
participation in the government. Nabih Berri, the parliament speaker and Amal
leader, would like to see all political parties in government, including those
that have refused to join it. Evidently, the protest movement’s demands simply
did not register with the speaker.
Mr Diab’s designation had come as domestic and international pressure built up
to form a government. What delayed matters is that the former prime minister
Saad Hariri had sought to corner Hezbollah and its allies by showing them that
they could not avoid naming him to head a new government. This he sought to use
as leverage to bring in a team of technocrats of his choosing, without major
political figures.
His efforts led to a standoff, particularly between Mr Hariri and the head of
the FPM, Gebran Bassil, one of the politicians most hated by the protest
movement. Mr Hariri wanted to keep both Mr Bassil and major Hezbollah figures
out of the cabinet, while Hezbollah and the FPM underlined that if they were
outside, Mr Hariri would have to join them. They wanted a government of both
politicians and technocrats.
Mr Hariri’s hardball tactics almost worked when Hezbollah showed a willingness
to allow him to form a government, without setting as a condition that Mr Bassil
needed to be in it. This led to tensions between the party and the FPM, opening
the way to Mr Hariri’s designation as prime minister. The process collapsed,
however, when a key Christian ally of Mr Hariri, the Lebanese Forces, refused to
endorse him. Without Christian cover, Mr Hariri withdrew from the race, leaving
Hezbollah hanging.
Mr Diab’s designation had come as domestic and international pressure built up
to form a government
Hezbollah was no less keen than other parties to see a government in place.
While the party has claimed it can weather an economic collapse – and doubtless
it is more able to do so than others – a devaluation of the Lebanese pound would
affect the Shia community at large, not just Hezbollah’s partisans. The ensuing
discontent could represent a major problem for the party, all the more so as
there is a significant Shiite component in the protest movement. So agreeing to
a new government was a priority.
Whether Mr Diab is the silver bullet Hezbollah needs is questionable. His lack
of communal backing will plague him in the months ahead, particularly when the
government has to take tough economic measures heightening popular anger. Nor is
it clear how his government will be able to move ahead on reforms that will
entail undermining the political and economic interests of the very politicians
who brought him to office and will appoint many of his ministers.
For example, one essential aspect of any reform package is to lay off thousands
of superfluous workers from the civil service, placed there by the parties in
power. Another is to lift subsidies on electricity and renovate the electricity
sector, whose dysfunctional and corrupt nature has provided major sources of
income for the parties. Will Mr Diab be able to make major progress here? Don’t
hold your breath.
More likely, his government will try to progress where and when it can,
compensating by putting an undue burden on society through taxes and other fees.
Yet the protest movement showed the limits of that approach. What will happen
then is that market realities will impose change on government policy, perhaps
even bring intervention by the International Monetary Fund. This will mean even
more pain and then we will see if Mr Diab can retain his post. The reality is
that he was probably not brought in to last.
*Michael Young is editor of Diwan, the blog of the Carnegie Middle East
programme, in Beirut
Israel’s next underground war
Yonah Jeremy BOB/Jerusalem Post/December 26/2019
Israel and the US have become experts in tunnel warfare, but their conclusions
are different.
Until the Gaza war in the summer of 2014, both Israel and the West were largely
ignoring tunnel warfare as a new threat and playing field.
Hamas’s success with multiple surprise attacks from cross-border attack tunnels
on IDF troops shook Israel out of its complacency. It also led to a multiyear
and multibillion-shekel effort to come up with new tactics and technologies to
combat the threat.
A somewhat parallel process occurred in the US when it ran into ISIS using
tunnel warfare against American troops in Syria in 2015-2016 and in preparation
for a possible conflict with North Korea in 2017-2018.
A key question that came out of an impressive Israel-US conference on tunnel
warfare this week at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya was whether initial
progress in combating the underground challenge has once again overinflated
Israeli confidence or whether the US has now overblown the scope of the
challenge.
A clear pattern from the conference appeared to be a divergence between Israeli
and US outlooks on this question after the 2015-2018 period in which both
countries appeared to view the challenge with the same severity.
While many Israelis appeared ready to say they have the Hezbollah and Hamas
tunnel threat on the run (no one is quite proclaiming the threat defeated),
American military experts and academics were saying that subterranean warfare is
destined to become an even greater challenge going forward.
Who is right?
This is a crucial question because forecasting future security challenges
determines not only the division of military budgets, but also how much
strategic energy and emphasis is placed on the tunnel threat as opposed to other
threats.
Though militaries have huge budgets, they are also finite.
At the end of the day, Israel and the US will plan, train and build their future
forces more for addressing the underground warfare challenge or for another
challenge.
Both militaries do plan for multiple challenges and fronts, but what is viewed
as the “burning” issue always gets priority, and secondary priorities are often
addressed more passively.
Part of determining who is right is understanding how Israel and the US each got
to where it is at this point.
AT THE conference, Lt.-Col. “Itai” who works for the Defense Ministry weapons
research division MAFAT, gave an extraordinary presentation explaining how
Israel’s journey to addressing the tunnel threat started by tossing out 600
ideas into “the valley of [ideas]death” in order to find “four to six that
actually work.”
“Itai” discussed how radar was limited because the ground absorbs the energy
being used for detection, which prevents energy from hitting the underground
target and boomeranging back.
He also noted that the ground is much more varied in its makeup than the air,
since there is a wide mix of elements in the Gazan sand and in the Lebanese
rocky ground.
These varied elements, along with other phenomena underground, can either block
radar or give an enormous number of false positives (a problem even with
“ground-penetrating” radar) which seem to present the characteristics of a void
underground that could indicate there is a tunnel.
As “Itai” put it, maybe the most important discovery that the IDF made was that
“there is no one ‘Tunnel Dome’ like Iron Dome” to address the tunnel threat the
way that Iron Dome addresses the threat of rockets.
Once the IDF started experimenting with a wide variety of technologies to detect
sound, movement and seismic activity, it needed its operational people to become
skilled at sorting the actual threatening sounds from the sounds that just sound
threatening.
“Itai” disarmed many at the conference by playing a loud sound that had
convinced northern Israeli residents that Hezbollah was digging under their land
– and which did, in fact, sound like a jackhammer for digging a tunnel – but
which the IDF later determined was a “cricket mole.”
Almost comically, “Itai” described how similar audio false positives occurred
with “offenders” like “a horse kicking a fence or a neighbor’s washing machine.”
In contrast, the actual sound of Hezbollah digging underground, which “Itai”
played for the conference, was far more subtle.
The IDF’s initial success was with detecting Hamas tunnels in Gaza, with IDF
Lt.-Col. Aviv Amir, who also presented at the conference, being one of the
leading officers in the effort.
“Itai” said that in addition to the IDF succeeding in detecting and destroying a
significant number of cross-border Hamas tunnels in recent years, the IDF’s
underground Gaza wall has countermeasures that will prevent Hamas’s tunnels from
even reaching the wall itself.
What was noteworthy about these comments was that the wall itself, due to be
finished in 2020 (though its finish date has been postponed multiple times),
appeared to be secondary. The countermeasures surrounding the wall seemed to be
the center of the IDF’s future underground cross-border strategy for Gaza.
The IDF has publicized details of the wall – that it will be 6 meters high and
several dozen meters deep, and that around the wall will be a system designed to
locate and measure tunnels using sensors, aerostats and other intelligence.
After years of flailing for solutions, it was striking to hear “Itai’s”
confidence that – following the IDF’s discovery of close to 20 Hamas tunnels in
recent years, plus the wall – the IDF finally has the tunnel threat from Hamas
on the run.
Amir exuded a similar level of confidence presenting a series of videos showing
the IDF’s December 2018 operation uncovering six Hezbollah cross-border tunnels.
Likewise, when IDF doctrine expert for the Galilee Division Col. (res.) Yuval
Bazak spoke to the conference about the tunnel threat from Hezbollah in Lebanon,
his emphasis was on IDF maneuvering.
He said that the IDF should not become over-obsessed with the tunnels and with
how to fight inside the tunnels.
Bazak said this would be yielding most of the IDF’s firepower and communications
advantages. Rather, he said, the IDF could tactically neutralize Hezbollah’s
tunnels’ usefulness by having its units constantly maneuvering instead of
remaining stationary.
He also said that any future conflict with Hezbollah would involve faster
penetration into Lebanon by IDF ground forces. This approach, more than new
technologies, is what would overcome Hezbollah’s or Hamas’s ability to translate
tunnel tactics into any real gain, he said.
“Itai” said that until 2014, Iran and other threats had unduly distracted Israel
from the tunnel threat. Bazak later countered that, as of 2019, the tunnel
threat was no longer strategic and should not distract from more serious threats
like Iran and precision-guided missiles.
IN CONTRAST, the US experts at the conference appeared to see subterranean
warfare as an expanding future threat that needs to alter the entire concept and
structure of the American military.
If Israel’s primary worry has been protecting its territory from invasion and
protecting its troops in the rear from ambush, the US’s future concerns have to
do with prevailing over enemies like ISIS, North Korea, Iran and possibly even
China and Russia on those adversaries’ soil.
In recent years, ISIS used underground networks to hide from US drones and
aerial strikes, to move without detection from overhead surveillance and to
escape from close-quarters combat.
Special Assistant to the US Army Judge Advocate-General Michael Meier told the
conference that North Korea has around 5,000 out of the 10,000 tunnels and bases
underground worldwide.
He said that North Korea and other countries do not merely build tunnels.
Rather, they build sometimes vast underground facilities under mega cities where
pursuers can get lost in a byzantine maze of utilities pipelines and subway
lines.
Many of these countries have massively reinforced command and control
underground capabilities as well as the ability to deploy thousands of troops,
tanks, missiles and even launch planes from underground runways.
Meier said US adversaries are likely to take the position in future conflicts
that if they “stay in any one place for more than 20 minutes, they will be dead”
because US surveillance satellites will expose them and then unmanned hovering
US drones will take them out.
With this mentality, he expects underground fighting to become not merely an
add-on issue for the US, and said it might emerge as the primary playing field
for combat.
Maj. Haley Mercer of the US 82nd Airborne Division told the conference that the
American military’s doctrine in 2017 shifted from specializing in
counterinsurgency warfare to focusing on specializing in subterranean warfare.
She also discussed how the US is pivoting to using electronic warfare,
artificial intelligence and cyber capabilities to use deception and narrative
control to confront US adversaries to help shape the “battlefield” in any
terrain, before any shots are even fired.
Mercer also signaled that combat on unusual dynamic battlefields like
underground ones had created a greater necessity for US cooperation and openness
with allies like Israel than ever before in order to crack problems.
Both Israeli and US officials described American experts visiting
Hamas-Hezbollah tunnels which Israel has uncovered in order to test their new
technological solutions.
Col. Patrick Mahaney, who formerly led the US Army’s Asymmetric Warfare Group,
said that “the technology is constantly changing” in subterranean and other
warfare.
He said that the combination of a technology-tactics arms race is “not going to
end,” especially regarding “complex operating environments that are emerging,”
such as underground combat in cities.
Mahaney described the US military breaking with its preferred secrecy approach,
since it has had to reach out to a wide range of small start-ups to seek
technological help with addressing the tunnel challenge.
In some ways, he portrayed the US military as moving into the role of project
manager to try to mix and match a variety of disparate technologies into
customized solutions to addressing underground challenges that it could not
solve on its own.
At least since 2018, the US has even been exploring a new generation of drones
that will have underground capabilities to explore and map out larger complexes.
These drones’ capabilities would go far beyond the first generation of
ground-based robots that Israel uses to slowly comb through the smaller tunnels
used by Hamas or Hezbollah.
SO IS Israel overconfident, or is the US overly alarmist?
Part of the answer in the differing perspectives may be that Israel and the US
simply are addressing different kinds of tunnel threats.
The main focus for Israel regarding underground warfare has been defensive and
narrow: detecting cross-border tunnels infiltrating its northern or southern
borders.
In fact, Amir revealed at the conference that when the IDF found that a seventh
Hezbollah tunnel in the north only came up to, but did not cross, Israel’s
border – the IDF left it alone.
In contrast, the US is playing a mostly offensive game on a global field.
The most discussed subterranean adversaries for the US are ISIS in the Middle
East and North Korea, if the countries have a future conflict.
In order to defeat ISIS or radically deflate North Korea’s war-making
capabilities, the US would not be defending against a mere cross-border threat
to the continental US. Instead, it would be trying to “drain the swamp” of an
adversary’s capabilities in tunnels on foreign soil.
Top Israeli defense figures like former national security adviser Yaakov Amidror
are fond of reminding people that Hezbollah and Hamas are dynamic, adapting
actors.
This means that even if Israel is feeling greater confidence in the subterranean
arms race, it probably is nowhere near complacency yet.
Further, if Bazak is correct and Israel will need to drive deeper into Gaza or
Lebanon in future conflicts, the IDF will likely need to engage in draining the
tunnel swamp just like the US.
It will ultimately be in one of those future conflicts that we will learn
whether the IDF continues to keep its eye on the ball regarding the tunnels
issue or whether recent victories and a plethora of other threats once again
distract it into being blindsided.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on December 26-27/2019
Iranians call for action after reports of Khamenei ordering violent crackdown
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 25 December 2019
Iranians have called on the international community to act against the Islamic
Republic after a Reuters report said that about 1,500 people were killed in a
brutal crackdown on protesters in the country. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei personally ordered the crackdown on protesters in November, resulting
in about 1,500 deaths during less than two weeks of unrest that started on
November 15, according to the report. Last month, Iran introduced gasoline
rationing and price hikes triggering protests all over the country. Reza
Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last monarch late Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, called
on the European members of the UN Security Council to take the Islamic Republic
to the International Criminal Court (ICC) “instead of begging for dialogue and
trade.”US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook said that the Reuters
report “underscores the urgency for the international community to punish the
perpetrators and isolate the regime for the murder of 1,500 Iranian
citizens.”Human rights groups such as Amnesty International have said the death
toll was at least 304. On the difference in the figures, prominent Iranian human
rights lawyer Shadi Sadr pointed out that human rights groups have only been
able to gather a fraction of the names of those killed during the protests due
to families of victims remaining silent out of fear of the repercussions. “In
this context, the Reuters report on the death toll is of great importance,
especially since it cites three officials at the Ministry of Interior,” she
added. The family of Pouya Bakhtiari – a protestor killed in the November
protests – has been highly outspoken against the incident. They were arrested on
Tuesday for insisting on commemorating their dead son. Iran expert Saeed
Ghasseminejad made a similar observation, saying that the figure reported by
Reuters does not contradict the lower figure reported by Amnesty, “as Amnesty
only reports the cases it can confirm.”He added: “It is well-documented that the
regime is pressuring families of victims not to publicize the murder of their
loved ones. As a result, it is reasonable to assume that for each case that
Amnesty can confirm, there are many murder cases that have not been publicized
by families due to unbearable pressure by the regime on families.” New York
Times journalist Farnaz Fassihi, viewed by some members of the Iranian diaspora
as an “apologist” for the Islamic Republic, questioned the validity of the
Reuters report “since there is no byline.”But, Camelia Entekhabifard, the
editor-in-chief of the Independent Persian said that not having a reporter’s
name did not invalidate the report and added that “the Internet blackout and the
state of emergency was a record of unprecedented repression.”“A reputable news
agency does not publish such news without sufficient research and resources,”
she said. Iranian officials, who are yet to release an official death count,
have rejected the Reuters report. Government spokesman Ali Rabei accused Reuters
of “lying” on Wednesday, claiming that Reuters is “used to spreading such
lies.”President Hassan Rouhani's Chief of Staff Mahmoud Vaezi also commented on
the Reuters report on Wednesday, calling it “exaggerated.”
Israel Hits Gaza with Air Strikes after
'Rocket Fire'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 26/2019
Israeli military aircraft carried out air strikes against the Gaza Strip
Wednesday night, the army said, in what it called a response to a rocket fired
from the Hamas-controlled Palestinian enclave. Warning sirens had cut short a
rally by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he campaigned on the eve
of his Likud party's primaries being held Thursday, public television reported.
"Planes and helicopters hit several Hamas terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip.
Military posts were among the targets," the Israeli army said in a statement.
The army had earlier said "a projectile was fired from the Gaza Strip towards
Israeli territory and was intercepted by the Iron Dome defence system".Israel's
public broadcaster KAN 11 showed images of a security guard informing Netanyahu
of a "red alert" late Wednesday. The prime minister waved goodbye before being
hustled from the room with his wife Sarah. On September 10, the head of the
Likud party had also been evacuated from an election rally, in the southern city
of Ashdod, after sirens warned of an attack from Gaza. On Thursday, the
embattled premier will face off against longtime rival Gideon Saar in a Likud
leadership contest that could threaten his grip on power. Last week, two rocket
attacks were launched against Israel from Gaza without causing injury, Israel's
army said. In response, Israeli warplanes twice bombed Hamas installations in
the enclave. Israel holds the Islamist movement responsible for all rocket
attacks coming from Gaza, though the Jewish state also targets other armed
groups operating there. Since 2008, Israel has waged three wars against Hamas
and its armed allies in Gaza, where two million Palestinians live amid violence,
poverty and a 10-year Israeli blockade.
Israel's Netanyahu Faces Party Leadership Challenge
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 26/2019
Israel's embattled premier Benjamin Netanyahu faces off against longtime rival
Gideon Saar in a Likud party leadership contest Thursday that could threaten his
grip on power. A defeat for Netanyahu, 70, would be a shock, but even a
relatively close result could weaken his influence over the conservative party
he has dominated for 20 years. Whatever the result, "Netanyahu can only lose",
said Stephan Miller, a pollster who has worked on multiple Israeli campaigns. No
matter how much support Saar receives, "it will be the first time in 10 years
that a group of voters on the right explicitly express their desire to get rid
of Netanyahu," he said. "If that is more than a third of the party, Netanyahu
will be significantly damaged."In power as premier for a decade, Netanyahu is
facing a third general election within 12 months as well as an indictment on a
series of corruption allegations. Saar and Netanyahu have spent recent days
criss-crossing the country, making their case to around 116,000 Likud members
eligible to vote, though Netanyahu has not responded to Saar's call for
one-on-one debates. More than 100 voting stations were to open across the
country at 9:00 am (0600 GMT) and close at 11:00 pm, with results not expected
until early Friday morning.
Corruption, election
The winner of Thursday's vote will lead Likud into Israel's third election
within 12 months. Polls in April and September saw Netanyahu deadlocked with
centrist challenger Benny Gantz, neither of them able to command a majority in
Israel's proportional parliament.
Last month, Netanyahu was indicted for fraud, bribery and breach of trust in
three corruption cases, allegations he strongly denies. The primaries were
called shortly after, the first internal challenge to Netanyahu since 2014.
Saar, 53, has been a senior figure in the Likud for a decade and held multiple
ministries, but stepped away from politics for several years in 2014 after being
politically sidelined by Netanyahu. He is seen as slightly to the right of
Netanyahu and has called for an even tougher line with the Palestinians. A
series of polls in recent weeks have indicated a Saar-led Likud might win fewer
seats in a third election than under Netanyahu, but the overall rightwing bloc
might be larger -- potentially enabling it to break the impasse and form a
majority government. Saar has not attacked Netanyahu personally, even hinting he
would support him becoming Israel's president. A source close to Saar insisted
they were hopeful of an upset. "More and more, the Likud rank and file are
understanding the choice is between Netanyahu and being in opposition versus
Saar and being in government," the source said.
Facing multiple fronts
Netanyahu has sought to paint himself as an irreplaceable leader fighting a
"witch hunt" by the police, the legal establishment and the media.
He demands fierce loyalty inside Likud and has isolated and ultimately forced
out multiple potential rivals. Other party figures seen as potential future
leadership candidates -- including parliamentary speaker Yuli Edelstein -- have
so far chosen not to support either candidate, despite pressure.Ofer Zalzberg,
an Israeli political analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, said
it would have been unthinkable a few years ago for senior party officials not to
publicly back Netanyahu. "They already sense there is a changing of the guard.
They are hoping that the contest between Saar and Netanyahu will create the
conditions for a third party to take home the spoils," he said. Netanyahu's
downfall has been predicted multiple times since he became prime minister for a
second time in 2009, but he has defied expectations and outlasted multiple
rivals. Backed into a corner on multiple fronts, Netanyahu appears determined to
fight his way out. Politics professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Gideon Rahat said he would not step down, even in the event of a narrow victory
over Saar. Netanyahu "will continue, even if he gets 50 percent and one extra
vote," he said. Under Israeli law, a prime minister is entitled to remain in
office despite indictment. Miller said the very fact there was a primary was
indicative of signs of discontent among the rightwing -- over which Netanyahu
has ruled largely unchallenged for a decade. "In every survey of voters I do,
58-60 percent of Jewish Israelis self-identify as centre right or right -- a
built-in rightwing majority," he said. "The way that the Netanyahu era ends is
by a challenge from the right -- not the left."
Israeli lawmaker aims to oust Netanyahu in Likud primary
The Associated Press, JerusalemThursday, 26 December 2019
Israel’s governing Likud party was holding primaries on Thursday, in the first
serious internal challenge to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his
more than a decade in power.Veteran politician Gideon Saar hopes to unseat
Netanyahu, arguing that he will be better placed to form a government in
national elections in March after Netanyahu failed to do so twice in two repeat
elections this year. Despite the shadow of corruption indictments hanging over
him, Netanyahu remains popular among Likud members and the fiercely loyal party,
which has only had four leaders since its inception in the 1970s, has stood
firmly behind the long-serving leader. He is expected to defeat Saar handily and
a win could strengthen his hand going into the next national vote. But Saar, who
has garnered support from a handful of Likud backbenchers, could benefit from
stormy weather that may keep turnout low. If he wins, he would become Likud’s
candidate for prime minister in the March polls. “We are imbued with the spirit
of victory,” lawmaker Yoav Kisch, Saar’s campaign manager, told Israeli Army
Radio. “This candidacy is good for the party and I believe can also bring the
change and the hope for a revolution in the Likud.”
Netanyahu has portrayed Saar an inexperienced, while depicting himself as a
security buff and master of international diplomacy. Still, in what was seen as
an embarrassment at a critical moment a day before the primary, Netanyahu was
rushed off stage after a rocket was fired from Gaza, setting off an air raid
siren, at a campaign rally in the southern city of Ashkelon on Wednesday. A
similar incident happened in September when Netanyahu was in the nearby city of
Ashdod campaigning for the second general Israeli election of the year.
Polls close at 11 p.m. and results are expected early Friday. Netanyahu faces
charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three corruption cases in which
he is accused of trading legislative or regulatory favors in exchange for lavish
gifts or favorable media coverage. He denies wrongdoing and has waged an angry
campaign against the media and law enforcement officials he said are bent on
ousting him from office. His supporters have tried to paint Saar as of the same
persuasion. The indictments against Netanyahu came amid months of political
deadlock in Israel, which after two inconclusive elections is headed toward a
third unprecedented national vote in less than a year. Netanyahu’s main rival,
former military chief Benny Gantz was also unable to form a government and while
the two professed eagerness to form a unity government, they differed on its
composition and who would lead it, deepening the stalemate.
Recent polls show that with Saar as leader, Likud would make a more powerful
bloc with its natural ultra-Orthodox and nationalist allies. Saar would also be
in an easier position to create a national unity government with the centrist
Blue and White party if, as expected, the upcoming March election produces a
deadlock like the previous two rounds have.
Syria Missile Strike Kills 5 Pro-Iran Fighters
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 26/2019
Five pro-Iranian fighters were killed by unidentified missiles on Wednesday
evening in Syria's eastern province of Deir Ezzor, a war monitor said. "Missiles
of unidentified origin targeted the headquarters of the 47th Brigade of
pro-Iranian militias in the town of Albu Kamal, in the east of Deir Ezzor
province, killing five fighters," the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
Observatory chief Rami Abdul Rahman said drones may have been responsible for
the strikes, which caused "loud blasts".Iran and militias it supports, along
with fighters from Iraq and elsewhere, have backed the regime of President
Bashar al-Assad in Syria's eight-year war. Israel has vowed to prevent its
regional arch-rival Iran from gaining a foothold in the country and has carried
out hundreds of strikes against Iranian targets. The vast desert province of
Deir Ezzor, which neighbours Iraq, hosts several actors in the Syrian conflict
besides pro-regime forces. The Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-dominated
armed group backed by the United States, was instrumental in destroying the
self-declared "caliphate" of the Islamic State group. Five pro-Iranian fighters
were killed in similar raids on the outskirts of Albu Kamal on December 8, the
Observatory said.
In September, 28 pro-Iranian fighters including at least 10 Iraqis were killed
in similar strikes. The Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah blamed Israel for
that attack, quoting a "security source in Syria". In June 2018, strikes in far
eastern Syria were also attributed to Israel by an American official, on
condition of anonymity. The Observatory said they killed 55 pro-regime forces.
Syria's complex, multi-faceted conflict has left more than 370,000 people dead
and displaced millions since it began in 2011 with anti-government
demonstrations that were brutally repressed.
Trump Urges Moscow, Tehran, Damascus to Stop the 'Killing
of Thousands' in Idlib
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 26/2019
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday called for the governments in Moscow,
Damascus and Tehran to stop the violence in Syria's rebel-held province of Idlib.
"Russia, Syria, and Iran are killing, or on their way to killing, thousands" of
civilians in the northwestern province, Trump tweeted, adding: "Don't do
it!"Heightened regime and Russian bombardment has hit jihadist-held Idlib -- the
country's last major opposition bastion -- since mid-December, as regime forces
make steady advances on the ground despite an August ceasefire and U.N. calls
for a de-escalation. Nearly 80 civilians have been killed by air strikes and
artillery attacks over the same period, according to the Syrian Observatory for
Human Rights, which estimates that more than 40,000 people have been displaced
in recent weeks. Turkey called Tuesday for the attacks to "come to an end
immediately," after sending a delegation to Moscow to discuss the flare-up.
Presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said Ankara was pressing for a new
ceasefire to replace the August agreement. Trump on Thursday praised Turkey's
efforts, tweeting that Ankara "is working hard to stop this carnage."
Iraqi president says he would rather quit than name PM
rejected by protesters
Reuters, Baghdad/Thursday, 26 December 2019
Iraqi President Barham Salih refused on Thursday to designate the nominee of an
Iran-backed parliamentary bloc for prime minister, saying he would rather resign
than appoint someone to the position who would be rejected by protesters. Salih
said in a statement that because the constitution does not give him the right to
reject nominees for the premiership, he was ready to submit his resignation to
parliament. Mass protests have gripped Iraq since Oct. 1 and protesters, most of
them young, are demanding an overhaul of a political system they see as
profoundly corrupt and keeping most Iraqis in poverty. More than 450 people have
been killed.
Iraqi Protesters Torch Buildings, Block Roads over PM Pick
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 26/2019
Iraqi anti-government protesters blocked roads and bridges in Baghdad and the
country's south Thursday after torching several buildings overnight. The
demonstrators oppose the entire political class and have vented their anger
against leaders who are negotiating to nominate an establishment insider as the
next prime minister. "The government is hostage to corrupt parties and sectarian
divisions", said one activist, Sattar Jabbar, 25, in the southern city of
Nasiriyah. Smoke and flames from burning tyres in Nasiriyah, Basra and
Diwaniyah blocked major roads and bridges across the Euphrates all night, AFP
correspondents said, before some of these roadblocks were lifted in the morning.
In Nasiriyah, demonstrators set the provincial government building ablaze
overnight for a second time since the protests began, and protesters also
torched the new headquarters of a pro-Iran militia in Diwaniyah. Iraq has been
rocked by protests since October 1, prompting Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi to
resign last month. After dwindling, the street campaign has gained new vigour in
recent days to rally against widespread corruption and a political system seen
as beholden to neighbouring Iran. Government offices and schools remain closed
across almost all of Iraq's south. Pro-Iranian factions have for several weeks
touted outgoing higher education minister Qusay al-Suhail for the post of prime
minister, but his nomination was opposed by President Barham Saleh. Those
factions are now lobbying for Assaad al-Aidani, the governor of Basra -- another
unpopular choice with demonstrators. "We don't want Assaad the Iranian!" shouted
protesters in Kut, a southern city. The protesters want a technocratic premier
who has had no involvement in the political system set up after the US-led
invasion that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Around 460 people have been killed and 25,000 wounded in nearly three months of
clashes between protesters and security forces.
Erdogan Says Parliament to Vote in January on Libya Troop
Deployment
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 26/2019
The Turkish parliament will in January vote on a motion to send troops to Libya
to support the UN-backed government in Tripoli, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
said Thursday. "We will present the motion to send troops (to Libya) as soon as
parliament resumes" on January 7, Erdogan said in a speech in Ankara. "God
willing, we will pass it in parliament on January 8-9 and thus respond to an
invitation" from the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), he said.
Erdogan's comments come after the Turkish parliament on Saturday ratified a
security and military cooperation deal with the government of Fayez al-Sarraj.
But a separate motion is needed to send boots on the grounds. Erdogan on
Wednesday paid an unannounced visit to Tunisia with his defence minister and spy
chief to discuss ways of reaching a ceasefire in Libya. The conflict plunged
Libya into violence and eight years later, pro-GNA militias and strongman
Khalifa Haftar's self-styled Libyan National Army are vying for control of the
North African country. Erdogan has in recent weeks vowed to increase military
support to the GNA if needed as it battles Haftar, who launched an offensive in
April to seize the capital. Turkey and Qatar back the GNA, while Haftar has
received support from Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia -- all of whom
have tense relations with Turkey. Moscow last month denied reports in the New
York Times that it had sent had mercenaries to fight on Haftar's side, while the
UN has also accused the strongman's forces of recruiting fighters from Sudan.
"They are helping a warlord. We are responding to an invitation from the
legitimate government of Libya," Erdogan said Thursday. "That is our
difference."
Turkey to send troops to war-torn Libya amid maritime
dispute
Tom Ashby, Al Arabiya English/Thursday, 26 December 2019
Turkey’s embattled President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced plans to send troops
to Libya amid rising international outrage at his attempt to lay claim to vast
swathes of the Eastern Mediterranean. The Turkish leader, who is allied with
Qatar and the extremist Muslim Brotherhood network, said he would present a bill
to parliament to send troops to Libya in early January when it resumes business.
Erdogan said the deployment was at the request of Libya’s UN-recognized
Government of National Accord led by Fayez al-Sarraj, which is fighting a civil
war against an alternative government based in the eastern city of Benghazi
whose forces are led by General Khalifa Haftar. The statement follows a day
after Erdogan held talks with Kais Saied, his Tunisian counterpart, where
Erdogan said they agreed to support the Sarraj government. Sarraj relies on a
plethora of militias, including Islamist and terrorist groups, formed in and
after the 2011 uprising against longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi. General
Haftar launched an offensive to capture the Libyan capital of Tripoli in April
vowing to end the rule of militias that include hardline groups linked to Al
Qaeda and others. General Haftar has reportedly received support from
international allies opposed to extremism and the Muslim Brotherhood. According
to the United Nations, Turkey has already supplied military equipment to forces
loyal to the GNA, including tanks and drones. Turkey signed an accord with
Sarraj last month that seeks to create an exclusive economic zone from Turkey’s
southern Mediterranean shore to Libya’s northeast coast. Greece and Cyprus,
which have long had maritime and territorial disputes with Turkey, say the
accord is void and violates the international law of the sea. They see it as a
cynical resource-grab designed to scupper the development of East Mediterranean
gas and destabilize rivals. Greece has expelled Libya’s ambassador in Athens and
filed a complaint with the United Nations. Cyprus, where the northern part of
the island is held by Turkey, has raised its own objections. At a December 12
summit, EU leaders issued a statement “unequivocally” siding with member states
Greece and Cyprus. Egypt and Israel, which have invested heavily in energy
exploration in the region, are alarmed by the Turkey-Libya move, which may
threaten their ability to export gas to Europe. Egypt has called it “illegal and
not binding,” while Israel has said it could “jeopardize peace and stability in
the area.”(With Reuters)
China, Russia, Iran to Hold Joint Naval Drills
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 26/2019
China, Russia and Iran will hold joint naval drills starting Friday in the Gulf
of Oman, Beijing and Tehran said, at a time of heightened tensions since the US
withdrew from a landmark nuclear deal with Tehran. Set to take place from
December 27 to 30, the military exercises aim to "deepen exchange and
cooperation between the navies of the three countries", Chinese defence ministry
spokesman Wu Qian told reporters Thursday. Wu said the Chinese navy would deploy
its Xining guided missile destroyer -- nicknamed the "carrier killer" for its
array of anti-ship and land attack cruise missiles -- in the drills. But he did
not give details on how many personnel or ships would take part overall. For
Iran, the drill's purpose was to bolster "international commerce security in the
region" and "fighting terrorism and piracy," said senior armed forces spokesman
Brigadier General Aboldazl Shekarchi. The exercise would "stabilise security" in
the region and benefit the world, state news agency IRNA quoted him as saying on
Wednesday. The US reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran in May last year after
withdrawing from the international deal aimed at tackling the Islamic Republic's
nuclear programme, prompting Tehran to hit back with countermeasures. Remaining
parties to the badly weakened 2015 deal include China, Russia, Britain, France
and Germany. China's foreign minister said the exercises were part of "normal
military cooperation" between the three countries. In June, US President Donald
Trump authorised a military strike after Iran shot down a US drone, only to call
off the retaliation at the last moment.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on December 26-27/2019
A New French Leader: Joachim Son-Forget
Grégoire Canlorbe/Gatestone Institute/December 26, 2019
What shocks the elites of Paris or Brussels about President Trump is that he
actually embodies real governance, which is totally inadequate in their mode of
operation.
Clandestinely, North Korea is at the forefront of computing, which allows it to
siphon significant funds through the blockchain [bitcoin].
Kim Jong-un has no interest in denuclearization. His program is total and
irreversible, not to mention unverifiable.... He has promised that its effect...
will change the "strategic status" of North Korea... Why would his regime comply
with adopting a position of weakness?
Joachim Marie Son-Forget. (Image source: Rama/Wikimedia Commons)
Joachim Marie Son-Forget, a French politician born in South Korea, since 2017
has been a member of the French National Assembly (lower house of the French
Parliament) representing French residents overseas. Formerly active in the
Socialist Party and later La République En Marche!, he resigned in late 2018 to
start his own political party, Valeur Absolue.
Grégoire Canlorbe: How do you react to the EU's attitude: hostile to Trump but
friendly towards the mullahs of Iran?
Joachim Son-Forget: I do not think that the EU is particularly hostile to Trump,
except that it denounces the trade war that has been declared. I fully
understand the US President's decision to increase tariffs on goods such as
European wines or Airbus aircraft. Trump is defending America's economic
interests, and from his point of view, he is right to do so. As I am concerned
with French and European interests, I am obliged to approve the tariff sanctions
with which the EU has promised to respond. But Trump is a great President; I
regret that he cannot find in [French President Emmanuel] Macron an interlocutor
who answers him from a position him of strength -- as a leader who skillfully
and ferociously defends his own economic and geopolitical interests, like Kim
Jong-un, who has been so skillful despite his age and his education in
Switzerland.
I agree with President Trump on some of his ideas, such as his Reaganesque
libertarianism. Its success contrasts sharply with the economic record of his
French counterpart. Despite economic and structural reforms that go in the right
direction. Macron is struggling to get rid of the socialism so present in the
elite French form, where the state is there, all the time, even when it should
back off and let the private sector take over. I also agree with Trump's concern
about thwarting the hegemonic ambitions of the mullahs of Iran. This is the same
Iran that launched a fatwa on the excellent Salman Rushdie. History will not be
kind to Macron if he does not show a greater firmness against Iran, as well as
against the terrorist threat and the Islamist ideology that reign on his own
soil. In the end, what shocks the elites of Paris or Brussels about President
Trump is that he actually embodies real governance, which is totally inadequate
in their mode of operation.
Canlorbe: What mode of operation do you mean?
Son-Forget: Neither the EU nor France is a technocracy: they are rather what I
would be tempted to call administrocracies. They are in the hands of people who
-- failing to make strong decisions and have a mastery of problems -- comment on
the news all day long. Therefore, there is a gap between the political class and
the entrepreneurs, who are extremely free and direct in their speech, and
extremely skillful and surprising in their way of doing things -- such as Donald
Trump.
There is also discomfort with his nationalistic concept of the role of the
state, his conviction that governments are at the service of national interests,
and not some supranational authority. The "European construction" is based on
the underlying prejudice that European identity should take precedence over
national affiliations, which is an anthropological error. The people who live in
Europe are -- and feel -- English, Italian, Polish or French, before being
European. It is necessary to respect stacking identities starting from the
smallest set, the family, the tribe, towards larger sets. Everyone does not have
the desire to identify with large sets. That is, the sacred union of the
populists: they are in brutal opposition on many points to defend their
sovereign interests.
Canlorbe: Trump is facing the three great totalitarian perils in the
contemporary world: The mullahs' Iran, Xi's China and North Korea. How do you
see North Korea moving its pawns in the game?
Son-Forget: The defense of Western humanism against totalitarianism is a major
issue. By humanism, I mean the attachment to values such as equality under the
law and the desire to allow the optimal development of everyone, regardless of
their social or ethnic origin. Not the pseudo-humanistic excesses such as
extreme feminism, or granting rights to animals. Or the political ecology of the
left, who, out of panic, want to precipitate the public into a regressive state
of nature.
The hegemonic aspirations of North Korea are helped by the geopolitical
withdrawal of Japan, which seems incessantly to be repenting for what it does
not want to apologize for: the crimes committed on the various peoples --
including Koreans -- whom Japan subjugated during its imperial expansion in the
first part of the twentieth century. North Korea also counts on the support of
China, which challenges America's position as the world's leading power. The
Koreans, whether in the North or South, also have good genes: they are
resilient, diligent and have curiosity.
A second advantage of North Korea is technology. Clandestinely, North Korea is
at the forefront of computing, which allows it to siphon significant funds
through the blockchain [bitcoin]. As concerns nuclear capability, the talks
between Washington and Pyongyang are now in a rut. Unlike his South Korean
counterpart, Moon Jae-in, who works to smooth relations between the two Koreas
-- first on mutual trust, then on progressive denuclearization. He therefore
hosted a delegation to North Korea. Kim Jong-un has no interest in
denuclearization. His program is total and irreversible, not to mention
unverifiable. The North Korean regime is continuing on its merry way, as one can
see by the missile fired in December 2019. He has promised that its effect will
be "very important," and will change the "strategic status" of North Korea...
Why would his regime comply with adopting a position of weakness?
*This article is an abridged version of Son-Forget's conversation with the
political journalist Grégoire Canlorbe in Paris, December 2019.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
A Likud Primary on Palestinian Defeat
Gregg Roman/The Times of Israel/December 25/2019
Whoever wins the Likud primary tomorrow, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu and MK Gideon Saar must pivot their focus to Palestinian defeat.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Member of Knesset and former Interior
Minister Gideon Saar are focused on victory in Likud's leadership election
tomorrow, and in the process clearly enunciated policies have taken a backseat
to slogans and attacks. Whoever wins, the day after their focus must pivot to
victory for the State of Israel, a nation facing very real and imminent security
threats, both foreign and domestic. The Israeli people need a more in-depth and
comprehensive laying out of positions on issues that are on the average
citizen's agenda.
Both Netanyahu and Saar have impressive credentials and have contributed much to
Israel over the years. Both have also served in the defense establishment's
Security Cabinet, so know well the challenges the Jewish State faces from near
and afar.
As members of the Likud go to cast their votes, many of the millions of Israelis
living within rocket range of Gaza and Lebanon will be watching closely. The
hundreds of thousands of Israelis for whom dashing to bomb shelters and worrying
if their children will come home from school are all too familiar will be
pleading with them to consider their plight.
A rocket slams into Route 4 near Gan Yavne, Israel, on November 12, 2019.
It could be argued, owing to the current political impasse, that these primary
elections are just as important as thee general elections on March 2nd. Whoever
wins will almost certainly become the leader of the biggest party in the larger
right wing bloc and will have significant moral authority to form the next
government.
That is why it is so vital that Israeli voters hear from both of the candidates
how they intend to rid Israel of the incessant state and non-state actor threats
which continue to mobilize on its borders, and even more so the pernicious
ideological threat that simmers in West Bank and Gaza-based institutions
claiming to represent Palestinian interests.
The former can be dealt with by tactical airstrikes and ground mobilizations;
the only real answer to the latter is Palestinian defeat.
Israel's efforts to manage conflict with Hamas and other enemies have failed its
people.
Israel has tried to manage the conflict with Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other
terrorist entities, both on and within its borders, for too long. Conflict
management is failing the people of Israel.
Israel needs to end the conflict with these terrorist organizations and their
fellow travelers, and this can only end in one of two ways. One unacceptable
way, that Israel is defeated, is an unconscionable thought and one no leader can
entertain.
Which leaves us with one real and sustainable option, and that is for the
Israeli Government to allow the Israel Defense Forces to defeat our enemies and
achieve an unwavering, complete, victory that will improve Israel's deterrence
and force the Palestinians to accept their defeat. As Daniel Pipes writes this
victory must be recognized from the "head of Hamas to the lowliest street
sweeper."
Both candidates have used the right language.
At the inauguration ceremony for new IDF Chief of Staff Avi Kochavi, Prime
Minister Netanyahu said: "All of our efforts at building our power in the past
few years are aimed at making sure that the army is ready for a single goal –
victory in war. And the stronger we are, the better our chances are at peace."
Last year, at an Israel Victory Project event in Jerusalem, MK Saar said: "The
'victory paradigm,' like Jabotinsky's 'Iron Wall' concept, assumes that an
agreement may be possible in the future, but only after a clear and decisive
Israeli victory."
Peace cannot happen until Israel forces its opponents to accept defeat.
Both talk of peace and the possibility of agreements with Israel's neighbors but
understand that neither can happen without Israel exerting its will on its
opponents and force them to accept defeat in their war aims, which remain the
complete destruction of the State of Israel.
Whomever is the leader of the Likud in the upcoming elections will also have a
compatible IDF Chief of Staff in Kochavi, who has repeatedly talked of the need
for victory and has sought to reinstall this concept at all levels of the army.
It is an opportune time for an Israeli leader to lead the nation beyond
conflict. The first step is for the new leader of the Likud to raise the banner
of victory in his acceptance speech to the voters of the Jewish state who will
consider this position favorably during the general election.
Leaders in the Middle East have largely lost patience with the Gazan terrorist
organizations, who have received support, funds and arms from Iran, Qatar and
Turkey. Many pragmatic Sunni nations are even ready to provide tacit support, or
at least show little opposition, to Israel's defeat of Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
The Iranian people are fed up with their leaders giving money to terrorist
organizations while they massively increase the cost of living.
In the United States, Israel has probably the most supportive and friendly
administration it has ever had, and one which understands the need for
significant military intervention to defeat a terrorist organization, as it
assisted in the defeat of ISIS recently.
The State of Israel has a window of opportunity to take the necessary steps in
defeating its enemies which have terrorized its people for too long.
Israelis want concrete policy discussions from candidates for public office.
The next Likud leader will have to make momentous decisions, and those who will
vote in the leadership elections need to know what they are voting for. They
need to hear an articulated policy in how they will defeat the enemies at
Israel's gates.
The majority of Israelis who will not be voting in the upcoming Likud leadership
elections are relying on them to demand a concrete policy discussion.
Defeat and victory should be defining issues in choosing their, and most likely,
Israel's next leader.
*Gregg Roman is director of the Middle East Forum. Follow him on Twitter and
Facebook.
Iran is looking at Asia as a lifeline
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/December 26, 2019
The Islamic Republic is tilting toward Asian countries in an unprecedented
fashion. In the last few months, Iranian officials have increased their
high-level talks and visits to Japan, China, India and South Korea.
Iran’s state-controlled media outlets covered the talks between Tokyo and Tehran
as President Hassan Rouhani traveled to Japan to meet Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
The last time an Iranian president visited Japan was almost two decades ago,
under the presidency of Mohammad Khatami.
Nevertheless, this time the objective of Iran’s negotiations with Asian
governments appears to be different. In the past, the regime primarily looked at
Asia through a geopolitical prism, countering US influence in the region and
scuttling Washington’s foreign policy objectives in the Middle East and the
Gulf.
But the reason behind Tehran’s current outreach to China and others is mainly
economic, with Rouhani admitting the country is encountering the worst economic
crisis since it was established in 1979.
Tehran is primarily pleading with Asian countries to invest in its energy sector
and continue importing oil from Iran. Since the US withdrew from the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal,
Iran's oil revenues and exports have been steadily falling. Before the US pulled
out of the nuclear deal and began taking a tougher stance toward the ruling
clerics of Iran, Iran was exporting more than 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd).
Iran's oil exports have since dropped to approximately 200,000 bpd. That
represents a decline of more than 80 percent.
Sanctions have also imposed significant pressure on the Iranian government to
such an extent that leaders are finding it difficult to run the affairs of the
theocratic establishment as protests and dissatisfaction in the country continue
to grow.
Before the sanctions were re-imposed, Iran exported roughly 75 percent of its
oil to Asian countries, nearly 28 percent to China, 22 percent to India, 18
percent to South Korea and 8 percent to Japan.
In defiance of the US, China has not halted its oil imports from Iran after the
US did not extend its waiver for Iran's eight biggest oil buyers: China, India,
Greece, Italy, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and South Korea.
Tehran is primarily pleading with Asian countries to invest in its energy sector
and continue importing oil from Iran.
But China and other Asian states have decreased their oil imports from Iran. For
example, before the US waivers expired, China imported nearly 800,000 bpd from
Iran. But in June 2019, Beijing only imported 210,000 bpd of Iranian crude.
In fact, the Iranian regime has become desperate for cash -- offering
unprecedented discounts to its Asian oil-buying customers.
When China decreased its oil imports from Iran and nearly doubled its imports
from Saudi Arabia, Iranian leaders first offered a discount of $1 per barrel of
oil. The National Iranian Oil Company is also planning to issue prices for light
crude and heavy crude which would be $7 and $8.50 lower than the Brent
benchmark. Such a discount is unprecedented in the four-decade history of the
Islamic Republic.
The Iranian regime cannot go long without substantially boosting its oil
exports. It has the second-largest natural gas reserves and the fourth-largest
proven crude oil reserves in the world, and the sale of these resources account
for more than 80 percent of its export revenues.
That is why the Iranian leaders are asking Asian governments and companies to
violate US sanctions and increase their oil imports. Iran’s Vice President Eshaq
Jahangiri pleaded with a Chinese diplomat, “even though we are aware that
friendly countries such as China are facing some restrictions, we expect them to
be more active in buying Iranian oil.”
What actions can the US and its allies take in this situation? They ought to
thwart efforts to lure Asian nations into skirting sanctions. One efficient
approach would be to send a strong message that those companies importing oil
from Iran will face sanctions as well. Recently, the US Treasury announced
sanctions on six Chinese nationals, top executives and five Chinese companies
including Chinese shipping company, Concord Petroleum Co. Ltd., Cosco Shipping
Tanker (Dalian) Co. Ltd. and Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Seaman and Ship
Management Co. Ltd for buying oil from Iran.
Asia has become Iran’s lifeline against US sanctions. Through diplomatic and
economic pressure, Washington and its allies must persuade Asian governments to
refrain from doing business and trade with the ruling clerics of Iran.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is an Iranian-American political scientist and president
of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh.
Improving education systems is harder than one may think
Nidhal Guessoum/Arab News/December 26, 2019
Two weeks ago, the most recent results of the triennial Programme for
International Student Assessment (PISA) came out. PISA is an international,
standardized test in reading, maths and science given to 15-year-old pupils
in/of participating states.
Started in 2000, PISA is now in its seventh iteration; it has grown in size
(600,000 pupils from 79 states took the test this past year) and scope (also
inquiring about non-curricular issues); and its results are eagerly awaited,
dissected and reacted to by ministries and the media.
I have been following PISA and its sister triennial program, the Trends in
International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), for many years. I was
pleasantly surprised to note that the day before the latest results came out,
announcements were bouncing around social media about the exact hour when the
results were to be released.
And right afterward, articles and analyzes were published in major publications
such as The Economist, the New York Times and the Washington Post. In our region
too, newspapers carried articles about it for at least two days.
Why the big interest? Because everyone wants to know which states are doing
well, or at least better, especially those (such as the UAE and Jordan) that
have now participated several times and can analyze the evolution of their
results, and what PISA will reveal about what makes some educational systems
perform so well.
A few years ago, Jordan’s Ministry of Education conducted a year-long analysis
of why its school system was underperforming in PISA tests, and how to improve
that. Those meetings and remedial decisions seem to have been effective as
Jordan’s scores made significant jumps in the latest round. Turkey jumped even
more. But Finland, for many years considered a model of how to do education
well, saw a continuation of its slow, steady decline.
The one big headline this year was that China (or at least the four provinces
whose results PISA validated), which participated for the first time ever, was
well above every other state. Compared to those of developed countries, Chinese
students were on average three years ahead in their reading comprehension and
maths and science skills.
Reading scores around the world revealed something interesting and rather
alarming: Only 10 percent of students were able to distinguish between fact and
opinion when reading about an unfamiliar topic. On a more positive note, one
important factor that boosts students’ interest in and enjoyment of reading is
teacher enthusiasm.
What is so valuable about the PISA reports is that in addition to detailed
scores, they provide analyzes about which factors affect the performance of
pupils. This is what ministry officials, and educators like me, are most keen on
learning about.
Compared to those of developed countries, Chinese students were on average three
years ahead in their reading comprehension and maths and science skills.
Most notably, the latest PISA report states that “the world is no longer divided
between rich and well-educated nations [on the one hand] and poor and badly
educated ones [on the other].” Indeed, scores do not correlate with income
levels, nor with big spending on education. Factors that were found to be
positively associated with academic capabilities include support from parents, a
positive school climate and having “a growth mindset.”
One new aspect that PISA explored this year was “student wellbeing.” On average
across developed countries, 23 percent of students reported being bullied at
least a few times a month, while in developing countries such as Saudi Arabia
and Turkey, more than 20 percent of students had skipped school at least three
times in the two weeks prior to the PISA test.
There is a growing push to broaden views on education, to ensure a positive and
nurturing school climate and to steer teachers, parents and administrators to
holistic ideas. PISA officials stress that education is more than scoring well
on tests, or about competencies for “marketability.” So in its next iteration
(PISA 2021), the program will assess creative thinking, how students relate to
others, and what they think of their lives and their future.
I should note that PISA does have its detractors. In 2014, more than 100
academics from around the world signed a letter asking for the PISA program to
be scrapped. They decried the “over-reliance” on testing and the idea that
education can be improved, or even characterized, from just a two-hour
examination of their reading, maths and science skills.
What happened to humanities, arts, social sciences, languages, physical
education and more, ask the critics. Moreover, they say, the PISA tests have
since their inception been developed in the West, and they are now being
exported to the rest of the world.
So what should a ministry that wants to improve its education system do? “If a
silver bullet for improving education existed it would have been discovered by
now,” wrote The Economist a few hours after the latest PISA results came out.
But it added: “Yet that does not mean improvement is impossible, or that there
is nothing to learn from PISA.”
For instance, over the years, we have learned from PISA that contrary to
widespread belief, smaller classes are not the magic solution. Hiring and
training excellent teachers is much more effective in improving student
performance, as has been demonstrated in Shanghai and Singapore.
The PISA tests are not perfect, and they are not the be all and end all in
education. But they offer much to learn and use in various socio-educational
settings. As Jordan did, other states in the Arab world and beyond should also
set up national commissions to review the tests and student performances in
depth, and come up with recommendations to reform various aspects of the
education system.
*Nidhal Guessoum is a professor at the American University of Sharjah in the
UAE.Twitter: @NidhalGuessoum.
Moon-Abe summit: A Christmas gift to the region
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/December 26, 2019
They are near neighbors and geopolitically as well as geo-economically vital for
stability in northeast Asia. They are big trading nations and rank number three
and number 12 in the league table of global economies, together comprising close
to 8 percent of the global gross domestic product.
We are of course talking about Japan and the Republic of Korea. President Moon
Jae-in and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met for 45 minutes on the sidelines of a
three-way meeting between China, South Korea and Japan in China’s southwestern
city of Chengdu. The meeting may have been short. Both summits were largely
ignored by Western media because of the Christmas lull and reduced hard news let
alone economic news coverage. A face-to-face bilateral meeting between Abe and
Moon was nonetheless significant.
The root cause of their rift was a ruling by South Korea’s Supreme Court, which
ordered some Japanese firms to give compensation payments to Koreans who had
been relegated to forced labor during Japan’s colonial rule between 1910 and
1945. Abe and his government contested the ruling in the strictest terms,
arguing that the issue had been settled in the 1965 treaty on basic relations
between Korea and Japan and that the ruling hence violated international law.
What ensued was a classic tit-for-tat normally associated with adversaries but
not between friends and allies.
In July Japan restricted some exports (three chemicals used in the production of
semiconductors) to Korea and subsequently removed the country from its
“whitelist” of trusted trading partners. Korea retaliated by suspending the
sharing of military information under the General Security of Military
Information Agreement. These moves came against the backdrop of a trade war
between the US and China and newly emboldened North Korean leader Kim Jong-un,
who had returned to testing short-range missiles which constitutes a threat to
both South Korea and Japan.
They have the closest of historic and cultural ties, even if they are at times
fraught.
Abe and Moon did their best to avoid each other. The last time they had a formal
bilateral meeting was during the UN’s General Assembly meeting in autumn 2018.
They avoided each other during the G-20 Summit in Osaka and South Korea sent its
number two, Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon, to the enthroning of Emperor Naruhito.
This was a snub because the ascent of a new emperor to the chrysanthemum throne
is a once in a generation event marked by calendar years being measured in a
term associated with his reign. Naruhito’s new reign is called “reiwa” which can
be translated as harmonious or peaceful order.
Abe and Moon bumped into each other on the margins of an ASEAN summit in
Bangkok. It was high time for the reluctant friends to meet again and patch
things up. The two leaders agreed to solve the forced labor issue through
dialogue. Japan agreed to drop export controls to Korea. Both will resume talks
on trade and security.
While the meeting may have been short and underreported, it was significant.
They have the closest of historic and cultural ties, even if they are at times
fraught. They share further interests as both are trading nations who depend on
a global open trading system. The last thing they needed was a mini trade war.
They have every interest in appealing to world powers to keep the global trade
order free and the WTO strong. They need to walk the talk in order to have
credibility in this endeavor.
Their security concerns are identical. They both have issues with North Korea.
While the new testing of short-range missiles may not worry US President Donald
Trump, it constitutes a major security threat to both countries - which are by
the way among the world’s most densely populated areas.
They both also need to come to terms with the unstoppable rise of China as an
economic and military superpower. Their companies are major investors in China,
which is also an important trading partner to both. They are aware of its
increased status as the region’s ascending hegemon as well as of its military
power. This requires them to navigate those waters carefully, which may be done
more easily as allies rather than as foes.
All in all, the Abe-Moon meeting may have been a Christmas gift of sorts to
northeast Asia as there are enough potential tensions in the region. It is a
positive development for those two Asian powerhouses to find a way to resolve
their issues.
*Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macroeconomist and energy expert.
Twitter: @MeyerResources.
The war against Christians
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/December 26/2019
It hit a peak in the last century but it's ongoing in the Middle East, Africa
and Asia.
Grinch that I am, in the days leading up to Christmas I immersed myself in “The
Thirty-Year Genocide: Turkey’s Destruction of its Christian Minorities,
1894-1924.”
The authors of this recently published, extensively researched, 500-page book
are Benny Morris and Dror Ze’evi, historians at Israel’s Ben Gurion University
of the Negev. “We embarked on this project in quest of the truth about what
happened to the Ottoman Armenians during World War I,” they explain. What they
found was “incontrovertible” proof of Turkey’s 1915-16 genocide.
Two weeks ago, the U.S. Senate voted unanimously in favor of a resolution,
co-sponsored by Sens. Robert Menendez, New Jersey Democrat, and Ted Cruz Texas
Republican, to “commemorate the Armenian genocide through official recognition
and remembrance.”
The White House disapproved, arguing that such a statement was unhelpful given
the fraught state of Turkish-American relations. Ankara has maintained that
atrocities happen during times of war and turmoil, but that liquidating an
entire community was never the intention.
“The Thirty-Year Genocide” provides ample evidence to the contrary. But it goes
further, making the case that the Ottoman Empire in its final years, the Young
Turks who came to power following the Ottoman collapse, and even Mustafa Kemal
Ataturk, father of the modern Turkish nation, came to regard not just Armenians
but all of “Asia Minor’s Christian communities as a danger to their state’s
survival and resolved to be rid of this danger.”
The methods used included “mass murder, attrition, expulsion, and forced
conversions. By 1924 they had cleansed Asia Minor of its four million-odd
Christians.”
Among the motivations, according to Professors Morris and Ze’evi, were “fears of
foreign machinations and interference, Turkish nationalism, ethnic rivalries,
economic envy, and a desire to maintain political and social dominance.
Perpetrators sought power, wealth and sexual gratification.”