English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 20/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today

Circumcision of the child, John: Zacharias, was full of the Holy Spirit, and with the voice of a prophet said these words: Praise be to the Lord, the God of Israel, for he has come to his people and made them free,
Luke 01/57-80: Now it was time for Elisabeth to give birth, and she had a son. And it came to the ears of her neighbours and relations that the Lord had been very good to her, and they took part in her joy. And on the eighth day they came to see to the circumcision of the child, and they would have given him the name of Zacharias, his father's name; But his mother made answer and said, No, his name is John. And they said, Not one of your relations has that name. And they made signs to his father, to say what name was to be given to him. And he sent for writing materials and put down: His name is John; and they were all surprised. And straight away his mouth was open and his tongue was free and he gave praise to God. And fear came on all those who were living round about them: and there was much talk about all these things in all the hill-country of Judaea. And all who had word of them kept them in their minds and said, What will this child be? For the hand of the Lord was with him. And his father, Zacharias, was full of the Holy Spirit, and with the voice of a prophet said these words: Praise be to the Lord, the God of Israel, for he has come to his people and made them free, Lifting up a horn of salvation for us in the house of his servant David, (As he said, by the mouth of his holy prophets, from the earliest times,) Salvation from those who are against us, and from the hands of those who have hate for us; To do acts of mercy to our fathers and to keep in mind his holy word, The oath which he made to Abraham, our father, That we, being made free from the fear of those who are against us, might give him worship, In righteousness and holy living before him all our days. And you, child, will be named the prophet of the Most High: you will go before the face of the Lord, to make ready his ways; To give knowledge of salvation to his people, through the forgiveness of sins, Because of the loving mercies of our God, by which the dawn from heaven has come to us, To give light to those in dark places, and in the shade of death, so that our feet may be guided into the way of peace. And the child became tall, and strong in spirit; and he was living in the waste land till the day when he came before the eyes of Israel.
 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 19-20/2020

Health Ministry: 1626 new cases of Corona, 11 deaths
Rahi receives Ghattas Khoury, delegated by PM-designate Hariri
Beirut neighborhood damaged by explosion opens Christmas village
Reports: Endeavors Ongoing to Break Govt Stalemate Before Year’s End
Rifi to Franjieh: You Should Have Blamed the Main Blast Culprit
FPM: Delay in forming government an attempt to override President of the Republic's powers
Abdallah: Cancelling of French President’s visit spared us a well-deserved rebuke!
Geagea: If I Were the President, I Would Have Resigned
Lebanon police clash with AUB students protesting tuition hikes
Hezbollah, Global Criminality, Political Subversion and the Parody of Lebanese Politics/Charles Elias Chartouni/December 20/2020
Secret Paris meeting lifted the lid on Hezbollah’s global criminal empire/Paul Peachey/The National/December 14/ 2020
US, Iran dampen France’s plan for Lebanon
Lebanon’s rule of law proves arbitrary as Beirut port explosion probe stalls/Rami Rayess/Al Arabiya/Saturday 19 December 2020
Why Hezbollah is losing the support of Lebanon’s Shia community/Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/Saturday 19 December 2020

Hezbollah’s global trail of criminality and corruption/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/December 19/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 19-20/2020

Egypt court acquits men who attacked elderly Christian woman
Iran executes two ethnic Baluchis on unclear charges: Rights group
Trump says cyberattack ‘under control,’ plays down Russian role
Islamists in Kuwaiti parliament see favourable momentum for amnesty bill
Netanyahu gets coronavirus jab, starting Israel rollout
Macron 'Stable' after Virus Infection, Says Presidency
Tensions in Armenia as Thousands Mourn Karabakh Victims
U.S. Authorizes Moderna as Second Covid-19 Vaccine
U.S. Planning to Close Last Consulates in Russia, Says Report
IMF Approves Release of $1.67 Billion in Aid to Egypt


Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 19-20/2020

China: The Conquest of Hollywood/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/December 19/2020
New star rises in the east/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/December 19/2020

What pushes Turkey and Iran to ride out the storm of poem?/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/December 19/2020
How ‘America first’ has mostly failed the US/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/December 19/2020

 

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 19-20/2020

Health Ministry: 1626 new cases of Corona, 11 deaths
NNA
/Saturday 19 December 2020
The Ministry of Public Health announced, on Saturday, that 1626 new Corona cases have been reported, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 156,570.
It also indicated that 11 death cases were also registered during the past 24 hours.

Rahi receives Ghattas Khoury, delegated by PM-designate Hariri
NNA/Saturday 19 December 2020
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, met this evening at the Patriarchate in Bkirki with former Minister Ghattas Khoury, delegated by Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, within the framework of the efforts and contacts made by the Patriarch to overcome the obstacles standing in way of forming the new government. Former Minister Sejaan Azzi also attended the meeting, during which talks broached the outcome of al-Rahi's contacts and encounters held in the past hours regarding the cabinet formation. For his part, Khoury briefed the Patriarch on the latest developments in the government formation dossier and the contacts made by the PM-designate after his last visit to Bkirki. Later, the Patriarch received "Democratic Gathering" member, MP Nehme Tohme, with discussions touching on the general conditions in the country, stressing on the importance of preserving and strengthening the Mountain's national reconciliation. Both men also agreed on the urgent need to accelerate the government formation process, for the Lebanese can no longer bear the burdens of the economic and social crisis.


Beirut neighborhood damaged by explosion opens Christmas village
AFP/Saturday 19 December 2020
The Lebanese NGO “Solidarity” opens a Christmas village in the neighborhood of Mar Mikhael near the port of Beirut, which was severely damaged in a huge explosion in August that killed at least 181 people, injured more than 6,500 and left scores of people homeless. “Despite the fact that our homes were lost, we will remain strong and continue to move forward. The Lebanese people are used to being united and whatever happens we will remain united. We will not let them (politicians) humiliate us any more and I’m sure they will leave. We will be united in our celebration of Christmas despite the fact that we lost a lot of people we love, but we will stay strong and we will not fear anything,” said Ula Deeb, resident of the neighborhood of Achrafieh affected by the blast. Christia Amyouni, a resident of Beirut, said the event organized by the NGO ‘Solidarity’ was done in order to let residents witness again the atmosphere of Christmas “in the middle of these sad circumstances.”“Joy came back to Beirut residents, we’re very happy and I encourage everyone to come with their children to vent their frustration and to feel the atmosphere of Christmas,” Amyouni said. Families of blast victims are increasingly frustrated that details have not emerged from an investigation since the Aug. 4 explosion caused by a huge stockpile of ammonium nitrate, which was stored in unsafe conditions. The blast, one of the biggest non-nuclear explosions in history, injured thousands of people and devastated several districts in the center of the capital.


Reports: Endeavors Ongoing to Break Govt Stalemate Before Year’s End
Naharnet/December 20/2020
Maronite Patriarch Beshara el-Rahi joined the ongoing efforts aiming to form a new government in Lebanon "before the year’s end," the Saudi Asharq el-Awsat newspaper reported Saturday. Rahi had met Friday with President Michel Aoun and head of the Free Patriotic Movement MP Jebran Bassil. Friday's meeting came after Rahi's talks with PM-designate Saad Hariri a day earlier. Sources that followed up on Aoun-Rahi meeting in Baabda, said the Patriarch has briefed Aoun on his talks with Hariri. Aoun meanwhile explained to the Patriarch the government formats that were discussed during his meeting with the PM-designate, said the daily. It added that Aoun emphasized his goal to form a productive and efficient government capable of confronting the current issues internally and regionally. The Patriarch encouraged Aoun to resume communication with Hariri, and Aoun expressed his readiness for this matter, it concluded.

Rifi to Franjieh: You Should Have Blamed the Main Blast Culprit
Naharnet/December 20/2020
Former justice minister and ex-Internal Security Forces head Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi replied on Saturday to Marada Movement leader Suleiman Franjieh, saying the official should have pointed his finger at the main parties responsible for the presence of ammonium nitrate that triggered Beirut’s deadly explosion on August 4. “You held the security agencies responsible and they do bear part of it, but you should have rather accused the main and not the secondary players,” said Rifi in a tweet addressing Franjieh. He was hinting at Hizbullah. Franjieh said in an interview with Lebanon’s MTV that security agencies are the main culprit in the Beirut port explosion that devastated large swathes of the capital. Franjieh also distanced his ally Hizbullah from the ammonium nitrate shipment that exploded at port and instead pointed the finger at President Michel Aoun and the security agencies. “The Rhosus ship, the ship of death, docked directly in the port of Beirut and did not pass through Tripoli. The ammonium nitrate was emptied and stored for seven years without anyone daring to disclose the matter,” said Rifi. Rifi had announced last week that ammonium nitrate was shipped to Lebanon for Hizbullah's benefit. “In my testimony before Judicial Investigator Judge Fadi Sawwan, I reiterate that the ammonium nitrates were sent to Lebanon by the Iranian revolutionary guard for the benefit of Hizbullah,” Rifi said in a statement on Thursday.

 

FPM: Delay in forming government an attempt to override President of the Republic's powers
NNA/December 20/2020
In an issued statement today following its periodic electronic meeting headed by Free Patriotic Movement Chief, MP Gebran Bassil, the Movement's political body considered that "the delay in the government formation is due to the existence of a clear attempt to bypass the constitutional authority of the President of the Republic as a full partner in the cabinet formation process and as head of the country, in addition to the insistence of the Prime Minister-designate not to adopt clear and unified criteria for dealing with all the Lebanese." The statement referred to "the existing intention to override all national balances and return to the era of marginalization, which cannot be tolerated." The FPM polit-bureau also warned against "wasting the investigation into the crime of the Beirut Port explosion," stressing "the right of the Lebanese to know the truth about who brought in the ammonium nitrate and how, who used a large part of it, and who made the decision to store it for years at the Port." "Besides the importance of defining the various security, administrative and functional responsibilities in terms of negligence and shortcoming, what is required is to determine the criminal responsibility for the explosion," the statement added. "Likewise, it is not permissible to miss the opportunity for investigations to reach their conclusion because of mistakes that accumulate by those in charge of the investigation, which renders suspicions against the judicial investigator a matter that tops this file instead of there being unanimous agreement over his good role performance," the statement underlined. The political body then moved on to condemn, in its statement, "Al-Jadid TV Station's persistence in attacking the Office of the Presidency of the Republic in a campaign of slander and defamation characterized by demagoguery, humiliation and violation of people's dignity." It deemed that "this has lost the station its credibility and professional ethics, rendering it a tool of extortion for known-unknown goals that are discovered by the public, respectively." "The Free Patriotic Movement, which is being targeted politically and in the media, will not hesitate to do all the necessary to show that certain media, led by Al-Jadid TV Station, are a tool for spreading lies, distorting facts, protecting corruption and preventing its fight by spreading accusations and intellectual and media chaos," the statement emphasized. The FPM political body also affirmed that "the door to reform is through conducting a forensic audit of the Central Bank of Lebanon's accounts and scrutinizing all public spending since 1990, as well as knowing the fate of the Lebanese people's deposits in banks and how to recover them," vowing not to spare any effort to accomplish these goals.

 

Abdallah: Cancelling of French President’s visit spared us a well-deserved rebuke!
NNA/December 20/2020
“No government yet, despite the total collapse…no abandonment of sectarian and authoritarian constants, even at the expense of daily livelihood…no retreat from foreign bets at a time when our isolation intensifies…! In the end, we are fortunate that Corona canceled the visit, because it spared us the reprimand and reproach that we deserve…The entity that we know is on the path of demise,” regretted MP Bilal Abdallah in a tweet this morning.

Geagea: If I Were the President, I Would Have Resigned
NaharnetCharles Elias Chartouni/December 20/2020
Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea criticized the “incompetent” ruling authority on Saturday and indirectly urged President Michel Aoun to step aside. “If I were the President, I would have resigned,” said Geagea in remarks at a meeting of the Strong Republic bloc. The LF chief said the entire ruling authority in Lebanon “should step aside,” as the country grapples with an unprecedented economic and financial crisis, amid the paralysis of authorities. “The sequence of events proved that the ruling group is incompetent and nonviable. The crisis has recently become a crisis of powers of positions while the battle is not a battle of powers and the problem is not between Muslims and Christians, but rather the ruling class that brought the country to where we are,” said Geagea. He added that “the only solution is to stage early parliamentary elections.”

 

Lebanon police clash with AUB students protesting tuition hikes
AFP/Saturday 19 December 2020
Lebanese riot police on Saturday scuffled with students protesting a decision by top universities to adopt a new dollar exchange rate to price tuition – equivalent to a major fee hike. Near the entrance of the American University of Beirut (AUB) in the city’s Hamra district, security forces fired tear gas to disperse protesters who were trying to approach the main gate. Students responded by throwing water bottles and other objects at riot police blocking their path. It was not immediately clear if there were any injuries. The protest came in response to a decision by AUB and the Lebanese American University (LAU), another top private institution, to price tuition based on an exchange rate of 3,900 Lebanese pounds to the dollar. The nosediving currency is still officially pegged at around 1,500 pounds to the greenback. The move has prompted fears that other universities could follow suit, potentially leading to an exodus of students from private institutions while public universities remain underfunded and overstretched. Hundreds of students had gathered in Hamra earlier Saturday in a protest they billed a “student day of rage.”


Hezbollah, Global Criminality, Political Subversion and the Parody of Lebanese Politics
Charles Elias Chartouni/December 20/2020
شارل الياس شرتوني/حزب الله إجرام عالمي، تخريب سياسي وهزلية السياسة اللبنانية
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/93841/charles-elias-chartouni-hezbollah-global-criminality-political-subversion-and-the-parody-of-lebanese-politics-%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86/
The reports on global criminality networks run by Hezbollah, throw into sharp relief the inner connection between the three pillars which account for its role in different operational theaters.
Based on lawyers and intelligence reports, they spotlight the critical nexus between the variables on the basis of which proceed the subversive dynamics of Hezbollah.
This elaborate perspective helps us understand the gist of its strategy, relativize the role of Lebanese politics in its scheme, and get a better grasp on why its Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, downplayed the centrality of Lebanese issues in the general design of Hezbollah’s politics.
Lebanese politics are ancillary to an overall subversion strategy which harnesses the rules of the internal political game, and tie them to the objectives set by the Iranian commands and their domestic subsidiaries.
The successful hijacking of Lebanese politics testifies to the state of institutional simulacrum to which Lebanese political life is relegated, whereas the real power lies in the hands of Hezbollah and its different agencies that took effective control of the country’s strategic levers (politics, finance, economics, security … ) and muted it an operational platform to run its criminal and subversive activities worldwide.
The illegal trade mechanisms ( drugs, armament, car dealerships, financial fraud…. ) intertwining with money laundering schemes, front companies and complicit Lebanese banks and lawyers, have yielded a complex architecture based on cooperation between Hezbollah’s institutional conglomerates, Shiite diasporas, religious institutions and occasional partners (al Qaida, Latin American drug cartels, international mafias).
This power configuration cannot, by any means, adjust to the institutional mandates of a regular State, and therefore the plot around which spins the actual Lebanese political life, is a mere ploy to set foreclosures and solidify the dynamics of subversion.
The deliberate degradation of public life, the dismantling of the constitutional State for the sake of the predatory State, the politics of systemic corruption (clientelism, patrimonialism, rentier politics and prebends, communal and individual plundering of State resources….) are antithetic to reformists attempts, and destructive of any sense of national belonging and civic boundedness.
The deliberate dispelling of the Lebanese national narrative, disseminated by various Shiite religious authorities, that relayed the terrorist attack of August 4th 2020, is no hazard, it conveys a brutal disengagement from the national, civic and moral compact, and the end of the Lebanese national comity and its attending civility.
Shiite fascism is in the business of overt political subversion, and the current political simulation is part of its choreography and transient political repertoire, and nothing seems to deviate from the initial political plan.
Lebanese have to reckon with raw political facts before re-engaging the fallacies which have concealed a long term subversive strategy and made it possible.

Secret Paris meeting lifted the lid on Hezbollah’s global criminal empire

Paul Peachey/The National/December 14/ 2020
Lebanese group operated in concert with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
On a clear, crisp spring day in Paris, a couple sat down at the popular Cafe de L’Avenue on the broad, tree-lined Boulevard Haussmann. For the well-groomed Lebanese woman, the goat’s cheese flan and the onion soup on the menu of classic French staples was less alluring than her companion’s bag.
Inside was more than €214,000 ($260,200) – the purported proceeds of a drug-smuggling operation that the middle-aged businesswoman had promised to launder through European banks, in return for a 20 per cent cut. “My gift,” the woman, Iman Kobeissi, told her dining partner as she took possession and promised in future to rent an apartment in a nice part of Paris so their meetings would go unobserved. But for Kobeissi, it was already too late. The handover had been caught on camera by the French police, the culmination of 18 months of painstaking work by the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). Her dining partner was one of its undercover agents. The National reviewed court documents, sanctions notices, drugs seizures, police reports and government statements to examine how Hezbollah used France and other European countries as a centre of money-laundering operations and a lucrative market for its drugs rackets.The FBI sting uncovered how the Lebanese group built a multilayered network in France to sustain its role in the drugs trade and procure weapons.
Underpinning its actions is the deal Hezbollah struck with the cartels to source cocaine in Brazil and mainly Colombia, with Venezuela becoming the gateway out of the region. “Where was the cocaine going? Europe,” said a senior US official. “And where was the money coming back through? Well, every damn thing you could imagine.”Of more than 2,000 people and groups around the world named by the US as “foreign narcotics kingpins”, almost a 10th are affiliated with or connected to Hezbollah, according to a report by US researchers. Senior investigators from the US government’s counter-Hezbollah programme fed intelligence to lawyers representing families of hundreds of US soldiers killed in Iraq between 2004 and 2011 for legal action against Lebanese banks accused of assisting Hezbollah. An 822-page legal complaint sought to tie together the illegal drugs rackets with overseas military action “committed, planned and authorised” by Hezbollah in concert with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Senior officials said the legal document represented one of the most detailed accounts of Hezbollah’s drugs and arms smuggling capabilities.It details the leadership of Hezbollah’s business affairs component, a unit that runs its criminal operations in Europe, and outlines its money-laundering operations, trade in conflict diamonds, arms and drugs.
How Iman Kobeissi was ensnared
The wooing of Kobeissi started after a meeting in Lebanon where she first offered her money-laundering services to a drug smuggler and DEA informant, who fed the information back. Her subsequent meetings with a DEA agent took her to New York’s Waldorf Astoria Hotel, to Paris with the prospect of future meetings in Cyprus, Bulgaria, Lebanon and Iran’s Kish Island, a playground for organised crime, according to court papers. By the time Kobeissi was lured to the United States and arrested in late 2015, she had unwittingly handed over a detailed picture of the vast network of criminal operations ranging across Europe, Africa, and South America run by the terrorist group Hezbollah. Kobeissi, 50, spoke of her associates in Hezbollah who wanted to buy cocaine and “fireworks” – her code for weapons and ammunition. Kobeissi and her accomplice Joseph Asmar, a lawyer with high-level connections to banks throughout Europe and the Middle East – offered to arrange for planes laden with massive shipments of cocaine to land in West Africa before being moved into Europe and the US.She also talked about shipping aircraft parts to Iran in a secret sanctions-busting operation and handed over a shopping list for an Iran-based customer that included more than 1,000 military-style assault rifles. “That investigation … really blew the doors open in terms of giving authorities insight into the depth and extent of the activity happening through Paris and France,” said Matthew Levitt, a Hezbollah expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The fact that these two based in Paris are running these activities all over the place is quite telling. Some of Hezbollah’s most important illicit finance activities – and certainly the most important ones in Europe right now – are happening in Paris and Brussels.”Kobeissi and Asmar – who was arrested in Paris – were both extradited to the US and convicted. Asmar was released in January 2018 and Kobeissi in September last year. Early release typically points to a deal for shorter sentences in return for information, experts say. But some US officials say that key intelligence secured during years of high-level cross-agency operations pursuing Hezbollah was wasted after senior leaders left key roles and the administration’s focus shifted away.
US missed opportunities to eradicate Hezbollah
Despite other successes, David Asher, who advised the US government on pursuing the terrorist group’s finances under the administrations of George W Bush and Barack Obama, said that the US had missed opportunities to wind up the group. “Frankly, it was a mix of tragedy and travesty combined with a seriously misguided turn of policy that resulted in no real strategic gain and a serious miscarriage of justice,” he told a US congressional committee. Hezbollah operates a business model based on crime, donations from the Lebanese diaspora, legitimate business activities as well as support from Tehran, experts say.
Intelligence analysts say Hezbollah’s criminal operations have expanded since the 1990s and they now run one of the world’s largest drug-smuggling operations to support their growing foreign overseas programme. The expansion has been particularly pronounced in Europe and South America.
The significant growth in European demand for cocaine over the past 15 years filed in New York “provided Hezbollah with a golden opportunity to put its sophisticated logistics capabilities to work on behalf of South and Central American drug cartels and generate vast new revenue streams”.
In June, police in Italy seized 14 tonnes of amphetamine pills worth an estimated €1 billion hidden inside rolls of paper at the port of Salerno on the country’s west coast. The spotlight initially fell on ISIS but authorities were focused on the Iran-backed Lebanese group. The drugs were tracked back to an area of Syria under the control of the Assad government that was known as a Hezbollah smuggling centre. “They are prepared to work with virtually anyone to achieve their goals,” said David Daoud, a research analyst at the US-based group United Against Nuclear Iran who tracks Hezbollah activity.

US, Iran dampen France’s plan for Lebanon
Reuters/Friday 18 December 2020
During a visit to Paris last month, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made clear that Washington was unhappy with France’s strategy to help resolve the economic and political crisis in Lebanon. French President Emmanuel Macron has been spearheading international efforts to rescue the former French protectorate from its deepest crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. He has travelled twice to Lebanon since a huge explosion at Beirut port in August devastated the city. Macron is trying to use Paris’ historical influence in the former French protectorate to persuade squabbling Lebanese politicians to adopt a roadmap and form a new government tasked with rooting out corruption, a prerequisite for international donors including the IMF to unlock billions of dollars in aid. He had been due to return for a third visit on December 22, but postponed the trip on Thursday after testing positive for coronavirus. An official involved in organizing the visit said he may speak by phone to Lebanese President Michel Aoun but there were no other plans for now. The 42-year-old leader has from the outset faced the inertia of Lebanon’s fractious political class, which has bickered and ignored international warnings of state bankruptcy, as well as resistance to his plans from Washington. “The Lebanese political class is stuck in its own contradictions and is happy to play the clock,” said Nadim Khoury at the Arab Reform Initiative. “(Prime Minister-designate) Saad al-Hariri is not able to form a government and internationally the US will not facilitate French efforts to form a government.”The US objection to Macron’s plan is centered on Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed armed movement that wields enormous power in Lebanon and which Washington brands a terrorist group. Hariri, a former prime minister, was given the task of forming a government after Mustapha Adib resigned in September. He is so far struggling to cobble together a cabinet to share power with all Lebanese parties, including Hezbollah. Paris was not initially keen for Hariri to take up the role, having previously failed to implement reforms, three French officials said. But given the lack of progress in forming a credible government, Macron did not oppose the nomination. France says Hezbollah’s elected arm has a legitimate political role. The US has already imposed sanctions on three leading politicians allied to Hezbollah. During a dinner in Paris last month with eight ambassadors, including from Europe, Pompeo made clear more measures would follow if Hezbollah were part of the government, according to two people with knowledge of his visit.
The stalemate has important ramifications for all sides.
Without US backing, international organizations and donors will not give Lebanon the money it needs to claw itself out of a financial crisis which the World Bank says will likely see more than half the population engulfed in poverty by 2021. Macron, having vowed amid the rubble in Beirut not to abandon the Lebanese people, is scrambling to show some foreign policy success in the region after walking empty-handed from high-profile initiatives on Libya and Iran in recent years. For the outgoing US administration, a tough stance on Hezbollah, which it deems a terrorist group, is key to demonstrating that its overall Middle East policy, including maximum pressure on Iran, has been effective. Three diplomats said they did not expect President-elect Joe Biden to change policy quickly given the bi-partisan nature of the US stance and other priorities for the new administration. Biden has said he plans to scrap what he calls the “dangerous failure” of President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure policy on Iran, but people familiar with his thinking have said he will not shy away from using sanctions. Warning signs The differences with Washington exacerbate what was always going to be a difficult challenge for Macron.
When he had lunch with Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun and parliament speaker Nabih Berri on September 1, his objective was to ensure Berri, head of the Shia Muslim Amal Movement, committed to a deadline to form a new government. Macron insisted on 10-15 days, according to a person with knowledge of the meeting. Berri, a stalwart of Lebanese politics who has in the past had a hand in picking key ministers, twice responded with “Insha’allah,” (God Willing), a polite way sometimes used in the Middle East to react to something you don’t want to do. Macron put out his palm to say no and again emphasize his demands.
Berri’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
Macron’s office said: “The president continues his calls with the various political players in Lebanon as he had previously committed to.” A week later, although Macron said he had got all factions to back his plan, the United States blacklisted two former ministers, including one from Amal, for their ties to Hezbollah. “You’re right to say the sanctions policy of the American administration, done without consultation or coordination with us, has strained the game,” Macron said not long afterwards, when asked about the US not being warm to his efforts. Since then Gebran Bassil, son-in-law of Aoun, who heads the Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanon’s largest Christian party, has been sanctioned over his ties to Hezbollah. US, European and regional diplomats say new sanctions are imminent.
Punitive measures
Hezbollah has become the overarching power in Lebanon, with elected members of parliament and positions in government. While its support from Iran has been hit by US sanctions, the group remains a pillar of Tehran’s regional influence. French officials say Washington’s punitive measures have done nothing to change the situation on the ground. A French presidential official told reporters on Dec. 2 “they did not block anything ... but haven’t unlocked anything either.”Speaking at an online conference of the CSIS think-tank, US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea said that while avoiding state failure in Lebanon was “first and foremost,” Washington viewed Hezbollah as being “wholly in service to their Iranian masters” and said US measureswere having an effect. Israel, the closest US ally in the Middle East, regards Iran as its biggest threat and Hezbollah as the main danger on its borders.
Iranian officials said that Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was in contact with Tehran on how to handle Macron’s initiative, but they would not allow Hezbollah to be weakened. Macron has meanwhile been left admonishing Lebanon’s politicians for betraying their commitments. “As of today, these commitments have not been kept,” he said on December 2. “So far, there is nothing to show that they were more than words. I regret that.”
 

Lebanon’s rule of law proves arbitrary as Beirut port explosion probe stalls
Rami Rayess/Al Arabiya/Saturday 19 December 2020
The Beirut port explosion investigation has been put on halt for 10 days, signaling that the probe’s path will likely be rocky even once it continues. Investigators last week charged caretaker Prime Minister Hasan Diab and three other former ministers with negligence after the August Beirut port explosion that killed nearly 200 people. But such investigations in Lebanon rarely come to fruition. Where some have supported the development, others have opposed the step based on confessional affiliations. But for justice to be served, those responsible need to be held to account. Naming these four public officials is the first step. The most prominent support came from Prime Minister designate Saad Hariri, a long foe of Diab since the latter assumed office last January. Hariri paid a rare visit to Diab and expressed his solidarity saying that “violating the constitution and indicting the premiership is unacceptable.”
A few politicians threw their support behind the judiciary that charged Diab, and Lebanon’s former prime ministers and the grand mufti of Lebanon stood behind Diab, saying he cannot be indicted on such charges. Former Prosecutor General Hatem Madi said in a televised interview that the judge in charge has the full right to prosecute former premiers, according to the law, and can even question the president, should the need arise. The Lebanese constitution outlines that a supreme council can convene to charge presidents and ministers, though this council has rarely, if ever, convened.
In the mid-1990s Finance Minister Fouad Saniora (who would go on to serve as prime minister) and Minister of Oil Shahe Barsoumian were charged in front of regular courts. The “Club of Judges” a non-partisan, informal body that includes tens of judges who advocate for the independence of the judiciary, announced that it is within the jurisdiction of the judge to try officials for regular crimes, such as the Beirut port explosion, rather than crimes relating to their work as government officials. Yet, the judiciary suffers from its inability to act independently because it has to secure political approval of all its appointments and promotions. The president and the prime minister approve judicial appointments which makes it hard, if not impossible, to divorce political considerations from judicial behavior. Judges need to earn political support for their career development and promotion.
This has led to a paralyzed judicial authority as several posts are vacant and cannot be filled unless the decree is signed and published in the official gazette.
After the charges were filed, Diab’s office issued a statement saying that he will not testify in front of the judge and the caretaker’s firm position reflects how difficult applying the law is in Lebanon. There is still a long way to go before high officials are held responsible for their crimes.
Unless the judicial authority stands up and uses its power to prosecute officials involved in the port explosion, the nearly 200 victims from the blast will not have justice. Additionally, by not prosecuting those in power, it sets a precedent that will make it more challenging to right wrongs in the future when atrocities are carried out by those in power.
This is detrimental for any democracy, no matter how fragile it is. Whether or not the charged officials will be heard by the judge is yet unknown. However, it is becoming clearer that the culture of respecting law in Lebanon is eroding. The law remains applicable only to those citizens who lack political support. Respect for the constitution has become more of an arbitrary talking point, rather than compulsory behavior. In Lebanon, essential values are now at stake, and if those responsible for the Beirut port explosion are not held to account, the backslide will continue. Now, the future of the probe is at stake. As victims’ families await the result of investigation, there is little hope, if any, that any politician will be accountable. Politicians in Lebanon have never been held accountable, and it’s unlikely to happen now. The ruling elite still refuse internationally mandated reform and the absence of accountability have further hindered the process. Unfortunately, without reforms, Lebanon will disintegrate further in the coming months as the unprecedented economic crisis continues and the judiciary which is bound to politicians continues to protect a corrupt ruling elite. The worst is yet to come.

Why Hezbollah is losing the support of Lebanon’s Shia community
Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/Saturday 19 December 2020

حنين غدار/موقع العربية: لهذه الأسباب يفقد حزب الله دعم البيئة الشيعية في لبنان

http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/93843/hanin-ghaddar-al-arabiya-why-hezbollah-is-losing-the-support-of-lebanons-shia-community/

Hezbollah’s adventurism in Syria and the wider region has alienated the support of many Lebanese Shia. The organization has also lost its military discipline and is under financial pressure, putting it in a precarious position.
Hezbollah currently faces four main challenges that have disillusioned previous supporters. First, its ongoing involvement in the war in Syria has exhausted the organization militarily and undermined its mission statement to its support base. The heavy price paid by Lebanese Shia, without any tangible victory, has caused some to question their relation and loyalty to the militia and its ties with the Iranian regime. Hezbollah originally emerged in south Lebanon in 1982, with substantial training and funding from the Iranian Islamic regime, with resistance as its core goal. However, its mission statement clearly adhered to the Islamic revolution and with a broad goal of creating an Islamic state in Lebanon. Gradually, its Shia ideology, commitment and support to Iran’s regional operations in the region – first in Iraq then in Syria – exposed its real goal: supporting Iran’s hegemony in the region. Its members and support-base constituted mostly of Shia fighters and loyalists, who eventually found themselves tied up in Iran’s regional plans. With the outbreak of the war in Syria, Hezbollah decided to intervene on behalf of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, sending thousands of fighters across the border.
The intervention has been costly. Not only has Hezbollah lost many fighters and commanders, but it has failed to achieve a clear-cut victory that it could use for propaganda purposes, such as the “divine victory” against Israel that was proclaimed in 2006. The main so-called achievement has been keeping President Assad in power, which has done little for Lebanese Shia. In contrast, many Lebanese were killed fighting for Assad in Syria, while at home the community feels more isolated than ever, as they lost access to and help from regional stakeholders, mainly the Gulf, which has a history of supporting Lebanon in times of need. With Hezbollah’s growing regional activities, the Shia felt they had to pay the price.
Second, Hezbollah’s rhetoric of resistance has lost much of its appeal. The organization has taken on an increased regional role under its Iranian backer. Beginning in Syria, the group is now involved with pro-Iranian forces in Iraq and Yemen. This expansion has led to considerable and frequent Israeli military responses, with air strikes and targeted killings causing major losses to Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Despite its rhetoric of resistance, Hezbollah has not retaliated to any of the Israeli strikes on its bases.
Instead, both Hezbollah and Iran now prioritize regional hegemony over resistance against Israel. They are reluctant to sacrifice the significant investments they have made in their regional infrastructure means in a conflict with Israel, which could lead to major losses in their arsenal and infrastructure that they would struggle to replace immediately.
Third, Hezbollah’s military has lost its discipline and has weaknesses in its arsenal.
To sustain its involvement in Syria, Hezbollah needed to recruit tens of thousands of new fighters who lack the discipline and training of the group’s previous fighters. Hezbollah now has a fighting force that has been infiltrated by disruptive elements that could easily go out of control. Whether the group’s leadership will have the time to establish discipline and control over its entire force remains to be seen, as it is overextended and could find itself in a conflict. As for their arsenal, although they have started to develop a network of precision missiles, these are now more exposed to Israeli strikes and international pressure, because they constitute a serious danger on Israel’s infrastructure, and at the same time they endanger US regional allies.
Forth, Hezbollah is going through an unprecedented financial crisis due to the US sanctions on Iran.
This crisis is affecting Hezbollah’s capability to build its social and military. Most of their social services – such as health and welfare system – are no longer catering for the whole Shia community. Instead, they are only offered to the close circle of military personnel and high-ranking executives. Even the contractors that were hired to fight in Syria are not all able to access Hezbollah’s welfare system. Hezbollah has recently created a new system to avert the repercussions of this crisis, which is now aggravated by the deterioration of the Lebanese economy. However, flooding their stores and centers with Syrian and Iranian goods, and moving hard currency within a small circles of loyal Shia, will only increase tensions. The financial crisis is exacerbating divisions within the Lebanese Shia, first between Hezbollah’s military and civilian employees, and second between Hezbollah members and the wider Shia community.
While most Shia have lost their jobs or are receiving a fraction of their salaries, Hezbollah’s important personnel are still receiving their salaries in US dollars – a rare privilege in Lebanon today.
Accordingly, the sense of inequality is exacerbating discontent among the wider Shia community, many of whom are feeling sidelined. Most importantly, many in the Shia community feel that they are going through the same pains and struggles as the rest of the Lebanese, who have called out a corrupt political class that includes Hezbollah. The Shia are not immune to the political elite’s destruction of the country, and Hezbollah will not shield them from the collapse. This is a feeling that will grow, and could lead to more tension within the community. Eventually, the Shia will regain their national identity, one that highlights their Lebanese citizenship, rather than a dependence on Hezbollah and the Iranian regime. Rebuilding Lebanon’s state institutions, rather than foster a deeper relationship with those who weaken it, will protect all Lebanese, including the Shia population.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics.

 

Hezbollah’s global trail of criminality and corruption
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/December 19/2020

http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/93846/baria-alamuddin-arab-news-hezbollahs-global-trail-of-criminality-and-corruption-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%b9%d8%a9-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%b9%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%86/

بارعة علم الدين/عرب نيوز/مسار حزب الله العالمي للإجرام والفساد
While Lebanon bleeds, many essential medicines are unobtainable in mainstream hospitals and pharmacies. Yet in Hezbollah-land a parallel system of health facilities exists where a full spectrum of cheap Iran-imported drugs are readily available.
Hezbollah uses its control of the health ministry to systematically divert medical funds for its own purposes. Hospitals damaged by the Aug. 4 Beirut port explosion, while treating thousands of injured blast victims, lost out on funds — but the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Rassoul Al-Azam Hospital, far from the blast zone, raked in $3.6m in additional funding. With its system of parallel ATMs from which dollars are miraculously available —parallel schools, parallel banks, parallel economies, parallel systems for paying salaries — Hezbollah is profiteering from Lebanon’s demise.
Hezbollah demands continued control over Lebanon’s finance, health and transport ministries precisely because the budgets and executive powers of these ministries multiply opportunities for criminal gain. Lebanon’s airport, ports and national borders are vital nodes for smuggling arms and narcotics. Lebanese financial institutions have been sanctioned for laundering funds for Iran.
Since Hezbollah’s 2018 State Department designation as one of the top five global criminal organizations, its criminal operations have massively increased, following explicit instructions from Tehran to “make money” any way it can to offset the impact of sanctions. Drug enforcement officials have been surprised to find Hezbollah criminal networks sometimes operating hand-in-hand with both Daesh operatives and Israeli criminal gangs to achieve this goal.
Hezbollah exports tons of the amphetamine-based drug Captagon throughout the Middle East and Europe,most of it produced in Hezbollah-controlled areas of Lebanon and Syria. A single 2020 seizure in Italy consisted of 84 million tablets worth $1.1bn.
Europol warns of intensified Hezbollah criminal activities “trafficking diamonds and drugs.” Between Africa and Europe, Hezbollah has used its Lebanese émigré connections to carve out a niche in the illegal diamond trade, as well as major arms-smuggling operations throughout Africa.
Two Hezbollah-linked Lebanese businessmen sanctioned by the US in 2019 for their role in illegally trading diamonds were also thought to be trading artworks by Warhol and Picasso for laundering purposes. The 2017 arrest of Ali Kourani highlighted Hezbollah’s efforts to deploy sleeper agents, identify attack targets, and engage in criminal activities in the US itself.
In 2011 a US Drug Enforcement Administration investigation highlighted the role of Hezbollah operative Ayman Jouma (still at large) in shipping an estimated 85 tons of cocaine into the US and laundering over $850 millionin drug money through various front companies, including the Lebanese Canadian Bank. Jouma’s labyrinthine trafficking network stretched from Panama and Columbia, via West Africa and back to Lebanon.
Although Hezbollah’s Latin American network (masterminded by the late Imad Mughniyeh) was initially based in the tri-border region of Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil, these operations have increasingly consolidated themselves in Maduro’s Venezuela.
I’ve always been proud to be Lebanese, but it’s a source of intense shame when the world sees our beautiful nation hijacked by Hezbollah’s corruption, criminality and terrorism.
Lebanese émigré clans operate vast narcotics networks embedded along the Venezuelan coast, primarily targeting the US. These clans enjoy intimate ties with Tareck El Aissami, Venezuela’s oil minister and specialenvoy to Iran, who has been sanctioned for his role in the drugs trade. In one 2020 scam, Aissami contracted the National Iranian Oil Company to fix several Venezuelan oil refineries. The refineries remain out of service, but Iran netted $1 billion in gold bars from Venezuela’s bankrupt economy.
Hezbollah’s international crime portfolio is primarily managed by Hassan Nasrallah’s cousin, Abdallah Safieddine, Hezbollah’s envoy to Tehran. Safieddine and Hezbollah official Adham Hussein Tabaja oversee a vast network of businesses active in tourism, real estate, beef, charcoal, electronics and construction that are essential for laundering Hezbollah’s criminal revenues. Bulk materials such as charcoal are frequently used as cover for smuggling cocaine.
In Iraq and Syria, Iran-backed Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi paramilitary forces are part of these transregional smuggling rings. A crucial difference, particularly since the assassinations of Qassim Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, is that rival militias compete over territory and criminal opportunities, meaning that Iraq is torn apart by warring clans while citizens and their businesses are extorted for funds. These militias have made locations such as Basra world centers for crystal meth, and transit points for heroin and other contraband goods.
In southern Iraq, locals warn that a crackdown against Turkish alcohol, including paramilitary bomb attacks onshops, is motivated by aggressive efforts by Iran’s proxies to flood markets with infinitely more dangerous crystal meth and other Iran-sourced drugs. As one expert explained: “The drugs market rejoices in the misfortune of the alcoholic beverages market,” making Iraq the battleground between Turkey, the “mother of alcohol,” and Iran, the “mother of all drugs.”
Hezbollah’s spiritual advisers during the 1990s ruled that the narcotics trade was “morally acceptable if the drugs are sold to Western infidels as part of a war against the enemies of Islam.” Yet today, from Beirut to Tehran, these nations are plagued by millions of addicts, thanks to the theologically sanctioned criminality of the so-called “Party of God.”
One rarely discussed reason why Hezbollah and associates don’t want to put down their weapons is that Hassan Nasrallah, Hadi Al-Amiri, Ali Khamenei and their families manage billion-dollar criminal operations that make them unimaginably wealthy while their nations disintegrate as a direct consequence of these criminal enterprises.
In accordance with Israel’s predilection for panic-mongering about Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities, retired Israeli colonel, Eli Bar-On has been warning that Hezbollah’s firepower exceeded that of 95 percent of the world’s militaries. As usual, Al-Manar TV gleefully promoted Bar-On’s comments, proud of Hezbollah’s global-menace status.
Too many states continue to ignore Hezbollah’s criminal and terrorist activities. Rather than Saad Hariri and French President Emmanuel Macron bending over backwards to meet Nasrallah halfway on government formation (with sympathetic Shiite appointees turning a blind-eye to long-running criminal operations), Hezbollah should be banished from politics altogether, and UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army should play a beefed-up role in combating industrial-scale smuggling and organized crime.
I’ve always been proud to be Lebanese, but it’s a source of intense shame when the world sees our beautiful nation hijacked by Hezbollah’s corruption, criminality and terrorism.
Iran and its mafioso affiliates represent one of the world’s largest and most lucrative criminal franchises. Only when we begin dealing with these entities as the criminal-terrorists they are can progress be made in confronting the hydra-like threat that Tehran poses.
**Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 19-20/2020

Egypt court acquits men who attacked elderly Christian woman
AFP/Saturday 19 December 2020
An Egyptian court acquitted Thursday three defendants who stripped and dragged an elderly Coptic Christian woman through her village in 2016, a judicial source said. Soad Thabet, 74, was paraded naked by a mob of violent vigilantes after rumors surfaced that her son was having an affair with a Muslim woman. The sectarian incident in Al-Karm village in Minya governorate, about 300 kilometers south of the capital Cairo, saw also homes of Christian families torched and villagers angrily calling for the expulsion of Copts. Egypt’s Christians, the largest religious minority in the Middle East, make up 10-15 percent of the 100 million population. The three defendants – a father and his two sons – were acquitted after a re-trial where they were initially sentenced to 10 years in prison. Thursday’s verdict can be appealed, the judicial source added. Local Coptic newspaper Watani reported Thabet was distraught upon hearing the verdict. “After all these years, how can they be let off after they stripped me naked in front of everyone to see? What can I say? God will bring back my rights,” she said according to the publication. Leading rights group Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights (EIPR) condemned the verdict in a statement urging the public prosecution to lodge an appeal. “Perpetrators of sectarian attacks must be held accountable for their actions in order to avoid their repetition,” the watchdog said. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi lambasted the sectarian violence, which turned into a national controversy, at the time describing it as “unacceptable.” Coptic Christians have long complained of discrimination in public life in the Muslim-majority country, especially after sectarian incidents where the state oversees community reconciliation sessions which find mostly in favor of the culprits. In recent years, ISIS has also targeted churches killing dozens.

 

Iran executes two ethnic Baluchis on unclear charges: Rights group
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Sunday 20 December 2020
Iran executed on Saturday two ethnic Baluchi citizens on unclear charges, a rights group reported. Behnam and Shoaib Rigi were executed in a prison in the southeastern city of Zahedan, according to the Europe-based rights group Baluchi Activists Campaign. The two were members of a local Revolutionary Guards-backed militia, according to the rights group. They were arrested in 2018 after engaging in a deadly shootout with plain-clothed anti-narcotics agents that they mistook for drug smugglers, the rights group said. The charges against them remain unknown. The Iranian judiciary has not reported any executions from Sistan-Baluchestan. Three other death row inmates in the same prison also face imminent execution, the rights group added. On Friday, Iranian lawyer Mostafa Nili warned in an interview with an Iranian outlet that at least five death row inmates in Zahedan face imminent execution. Oslo-based rights group Iran Human Rights (IHR) also reported citing an unnamed source that Behnam and Shoaib Rigi were executed on drug-related charges. The two were members of the Revolutionary Guards, and “it is possible a judicial case was filed against them following disputes they had with officials from the Guards,” IHR quoted the source as saying. In 2019, Iran executed 30 people on drug-related charges, according to IHR. Zahedan is the capital of Sistan-Baluchestan, which according to official figures, is Iran’s poorest province. Iranian security forces often clash with armed drug smugglers and Sunni militants in the province, which is mostly populated by Sunni ethnic Baluchis, a minority in predominantly Shia Iran. Baluchi activists complain of ethnic and religious discrimination and accuse the regime of deliberately neglecting their region due to its population’s Sunni faith.

 

Trump says cyberattack ‘under control,’ plays down Russian role
AFP/Saturday 19 December 2020
President Donald Trump Saturday downplayed a massive cyberattack on US government agencies, declaring it “under control” and undercutting the assessment by his own administration that Russia was to blame. “I have been fully briefed and everything is well under control,” Trump tweeted in his first public comments on the hack, adding that “Russia Russia Russia is the priority chant when anything happens” and suggesting that China “may” also be involved. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Friday that Russia was behind the devastating cyberattack on several US government agencies that also hit targets worldwide. “There was a significant effort to use a piece of third-party software to essentially embed code inside of US government systems,” Pompeo told The Mark Levin Show.

 

Islamists in Kuwaiti parliament see favourable momentum for amnesty bill
The Arab Weekly/December 19/2020
KUWAIT – Kuwait’s general amnesty bill represents a ready-made recipe for a tug of war between the authorities and the representatives of the opposition in the new parliament. The early introduction of this bill indicates that the opposition intends to make it its battle horse during the first session of the freshly elected National Assembly.
Five opposition MPs, Hamad al-Matar, Fayez al-Jamhour, Abdul-Aziz al-Saqabi, Osama al-Shaheen and Thamer al-Sweit introduced a bill introdcuing a general amnesty. Some have argued that making the bill into law is tantamount to opening a “new page in the file of national reconciliation.”
The obvious eagerness for this bill shown by the candidates of the opposition during and after the election campaign reflects its exceptional importance to them, and especially the Islamists among them. The general amnesty is in fact considered by Islamists a challenge inherited from the previous parliament, which had rejected the bill with encouragement from the authorities and help from MPs loyal to the government, including the former and current Speaker of Parliament Marzouq al-Ghanem. The proposed law generally provides for a comprehensive amnesty that drops the sentences issued against those who were tried in the case of storming the National Assembly building and tampering with its contents in November 2011, including well-known Kuwaiti opposition figures and representatives in previous parliaments. Those convicted in the case could in principle benefit from a special pardon issued by the emir of the country, by which the sentence is cancelled or reduced without dropping the charges. A general amnesty, on the other hand, is the prerogative of the parliament, and drops both charges and sentences, in addition to restoring their full rights to the those concerned.
It seems that those involved in the case of the storming of the National Assembly do not want to admit to committing a crime and consider their actions part of their “struggle”, which explains their quest for a general amnesty.
The Kuwaiti authorities do not want to set a precedent that would make the unrest that Islamists have stirred in Kuwait during the events of the “Arab spring” of the beginning of the current decade in a number of Arab countries as a “legitimate act of struggle.”
Against this background, the authorities are adhering to a single course of action for a possible amnesty in the case, namely to have those who were sentenced and had fled the country return to Kuwait and start serving their sentences, then submit a special request for pardon to the emir of the country. This course of action was indeed applied in the case of former MP Walid al-Tabtabaei. The Salafist MP returned to Kuwait from Turkey, went to jail for a short period, then subsequently submitted a request for pardon to the former Emir of Kuwait, Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, and he received it.
Among the most prominent figures condemned in the case is former Muslim Brotherhood MP Jamaan al-Herbish, who is still in exile in Turkey. He is betting on the success of his movement in putting pressure on the government through Parliament and succeeding to have the general amnesty bill passed, which has not happened to this day.
A group of MPs in the new parliament decided to reintroduce the bill during the new session, betting on the changes taking place in the public scene in the country, as they expect that the severe economic crisis has placed the authority in a weaker position, rendering it more willing to give in to parliamentary pressure, in addition to the increase in the number of opposition MPs in the newly elected National Assembly. The Islamists in particular are hoping that the passing of Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad, an experienced and charismatic leader, will weaken the authority and make it more flexible and receptive to passing the changes that they have been wanting to introduce for many years now, which would them to be champions of democratic reforms in the country and pave their way to reaching power and controlling its most important pillars. The shelving of the general amnesty bill in the previous parliament is one of the causes of hostility between opposition MPs and the speaker of the National Assembly, who is accused by Islamists of playing a major role in preventing the passage of the law. Ghanim had previously described raising the issue of a blanket amnesty, saying that its goal was to “create imaginary heroes.”Against this background, the opposition had tried unsuccessfully to prevent Ghanem from returning to the presidency of the National Assembly, but through a series of unannounced settlements and deals, he managed to defeat his rival Badr Al-Hamidi, although the latter had been supported in his candidacy for the important position by a large number of opposition representatives. The previous Kuwaiti parliament witnessed fierce “battles” because of the general amnesty bill, which reached the point of coming to fist fights between parliamentarians. At the beginning of the current year, the bill was about to be approved after a fierce pressure campaign by the Islamists, who had succeeded in pushing it through Parliament, but the Parliamentary Legislative Committee had frustrated their plan by introducing amendments to the bill. These amendments sought to include in the bill an amnesty for former MP Abdul Hamid Dashti, who was convicted in several cases related to abusing the Kuwaiti government and Gulf countries, as well as for those convicted and sentenced in the case of the Abdali Cell, related to a terrorist cell linked to Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah, and which was dismantled in 2015. The opposition saw that the inclusion of these cases was a legal ploy, woven by Ghanim to render the bill impossible to pass, since it wouldn’t be acceptable to anyone to pardon offenders and terrorists. Former member of the Islamic Constitutional Movement, Muhammad al-Dalal, had said at the time that putting the cases of storming the parliament, the Abdali cell and of Abdul Hamid Dashti in the same bag was an unconstitutional and unlawful measure, and a negative and absurd political move aimed at killing all these proposals and confusing parliamentarians and society.

 

Netanyahu gets coronavirus jab, starting Israel rollout
AFP/Saturday 19 December 2020
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received a COVID-19 vaccine jab on Saturday, kicking off a national rollout over the coming days. Netanyahu, 71, and Israel’s health minister were injected with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine live on TV at Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan, near Tel Aviv. “I asked to be vaccinated first, together with Health Minister Yuli Edelstein, to serve as personal examples and encourage you to be vaccinated,” Netanyahu told the television audience. They must each receive a booster shot in three weeks for optimal protection from the novel coronavirus. United States Vice President Mike Pence got the jab live on television Friday, while President-elect Joe Biden is set to receive his shot on Monday. President Trump has made it clear he is not planning to take the vaccine imminently, citing the belief that his recovery from a brief but severe bout of COVID-19 has given him immunity. Latest Israeli health ministry figures reported over 370,000 people had tested positive for the virus since the country confirmed its first case in February. Just over 3,000 people have died, in a country of around 9 million. The vaccine will be rolled out at 10 hospitals and vaccination centers around Israel for healthcare workers from Sunday, according to the health ministry. During the course of the week, a ministry statement said, vaccinations will be extended to the general public, starting with those over 60 years of age.

Macron 'Stable' after Virus Infection, Says Presidency
Agence France Presse/December 19/2020
French President Emmanuel Macron, who has tested positive for the coronavirus, is in stable condition, and examinations had given reassuring results, a statement from his office said Saturday. Macron, who is working in self-isolation from an official residence outside Paris, "is still presenting the same symptoms of the Covid-19 illness (fatigue, coughing, stiffness)", said the brief statement, signed by his doctor. But they were not preventing him from carrying out his duties. On Friday, Macron had promised to provide a daily update and, for the time, posted on social media a short video message filmed on his own phone. Speaking of the general situation in France, where the number of deaths passed 60,000 on Friday, he warned: "We have to be vigilant as the virus is gaining in strength again." The French authorities are concerned that the holiday period could see a new spike in infections. On Friday, a total 15,674 new cases were reported in the past 24 hours in France, down from 18,254 the previous day. And the so-called positivity rate -- which measures the number of confirmed contaminations as a proportion of the number of tests carried out -- slipped slightly to 5.9 percent from 6.1 percent on Thursday.

Tensions in Armenia as Thousands Mourn Karabakh Victims
Agence France Presse/December 19/2020
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan led Saturday a thousands-strong march in memory of those killed in clashes with Azerbaijan as the Caucasus country began three days of mourning amid persisting tensions. Pashinyan has been under huge pressure from the opposition to step down after nearly 3,000 Armenians have been killed in six weeks of clashes with Azerbaijan over the breakaway region of Nagorno Karabakh. As Armenia began three days of mourning for the victims of clashes on Saturday, the opposition kept up pressure on Pashinyan to resign over the handling of the conflict and what they say is a humiliating peace deal with Azerbaijan. Accompanied by top officials, Pashinyan led a thousands-strong procession to a memorial complex in the capital Yerevan where victims of the conflict are buried. "The entire nation has been through and is going through a nightmare," Pashinyan said in a video address ahead of the memorial march. "Sometimes it seems that all of our dreams have been dashed and our optimism destroyed," he added. The opposition has called the 45-year-old leader a "traitor" for agreeing to end the war on Azerbaijan's terms. Pashinyan, whose wife and son were at the front during the conflict, has said he has no plans to quit and the peace deal was Armenia's only option, ensuring Karabakh's survival.
'Beg for forgiveness'
Many critics said on Saturday the leader should stay away from the memorial cemetery where the procession headed. "He must not desecrate the graves of our children," Misak Avetisyan, who lost a son in the war, told reporters. The grief-stricken father said the prime minister should get down on his knees and "beg for forgiveness".Many critics chanted "Nikol the traitor" as authorities dramatically beefed up security at the cemetery. The war ended in November with a Moscow-brokered peace agreement that saw the Armenians cede swathes of territory to Azerbaijan which has been backed by close ally Turkey. The opposition were to hold a separate march later in the day. Pashinyan's critics have called on supporters to stage a national strike from December 22. A member of the Pashinyan-led procession said the prime minister should not be blamed for the mistakes of previous leaders. "He is not guilty of anything," said Karo Sargsyan. Pashinyan, a former newspaper editor, was propelled to power in 2018 after he channelled widespread desire for change into a broad protest movement against corrupt post-Soviet elites. But after the war with Azerbaijan, many now say Pashinyan has betrayed Armenia's interests. Numerous public figures including the influential head of Armenia's Apostolic Church, Catholicos Garegin, have called for Pashinyan's resignation. As part of the peace deal Russia deployed nearly 2,000 peacekeeping troops to Karabakh. Moscow said on Friday that a Russian mine clearer was killed by a blast in Karabakh when an explosive went off earlier this week. More than 5,000 people including civilians were killed during the fighting between the ex-Soviet rivals, who also fought a war in the 1990s over the mountainous region.

U.S. Authorizes Moderna as Second Covid-19 Vaccine
Agence France Presse/December 19/2020
The United States on Friday authorized Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use, as the country grapples with a brutal winter surge that is killing over 2,500 people a day. The US is the first nation to authorize the two-dose regimen, now the second vaccine to be deployed in a Western country after one developed by Pfizer and BioNTech. "With the availability of two vaccines now for the prevention of Covid-19, the FDA has taken another crucial step in the fight against this global pandemic," Food and Drug Administration (FDA) chief Stephen Hahn said. President Donald Trump -- who has frequently taken credit for the fast pace of vaccine development -- tweeted: "Congratulations, the Moderna vaccine is now available!" Joe Biden, who defeated Trump in November's presidential elections and is due to take office in January, hailed the news as "another milestone" in the fight against the virus. But he also warned of "the immense challenges ahead, including scaling up manufacturing, distribution, and the monumental task of vaccinating hundreds of millions of Americans." Meharry Medical College President James Hildreth, who was part of a panel of experts convened by the FDA to discuss approval matters, said Thursday it was a "remarkable achievement" to have developed and authorized the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines within a year. The Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine was approved by Britain on December 2, followed by several other countries including the US last week. Less-vetted inoculations have also been rolled out in China and Russia. The United States alone has seen more than 310,000 people die from coronavirus infections and is currently witnessing a brutal winter surge, with nearly 115,000 people hospitalized, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Millions of doses will begin shipping out as early as this weekend from cold-storage sites outside Memphis and Louisville, overseen by logistics firm McKesson. From there they will be delivered to sites around the country via partnerships with FedEx and UPS.
Cutting-edge technology
Moderna has several other drugs under development, but has never seen any authorized until this week. The decade-old Massachusetts-based biotech company received $2.5 billion in federal funding for its efforts and co-developed the vaccine with scientists at the National Institutes of Health. Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are based on cutting-edge mRNA (messenger ribonucleic acid) technology, and both have been shown to protect about 95 percent of people against Covid-19 compared to a placebo. Clinical trials involving tens of thousands of people each have also found no serious safety issues. The most commonly reported side effects were, according to the FDA, "tiredness, headache, muscle pain, chills, joint pain, swollen lymph nodes in the same arm as the injection, nausea and vomiting, and fever."But there have now been a handful of people around the world who developed significant allergic reactions after receiving the Pfizer vaccine, and the FDA has said it will remain vigilant. Both vaccines come with warnings for people who have histories of allergic reactions to their ingredients. FDA scientist Peter Marks told reporters that the total number of cases of allergic reactions to the Pfizer vaccine across the United States was now around five. He said investigations were underway, and suggested the culprit might be an ingredient called polyethylene glycol, which is in both vaccines. The FDA will also be on the lookout to see whether both vaccines may in extremely rare cases be linked to Bell's palsy, a temporary facial paralysis condition, a handful of cases of which emerged during clinical trials.
Placebo dilemma
Both vaccines work by giving human cells the instructions to make a surface protein of the coronavirus, which simulates an infection and trains the immune system for when it encounters the real virus. They each differ in the formulation of the fatty particles used to deliver the mRNA, allowing Moderna's vaccine to be kept in long term storage at -20 degrees Celsius (-4 degrees Fahrenheit), unlike Pfizer's, which must be stored at -90 degrees Celsius. Moderna carried out a clinical trial of more than 30,000 people, roughly half of whom were given the product and the other half a placebo, with neither recipients nor their health care providers knowing who was in each group. It has proposed to "unblind" the whole study and offer placebo recipients the vaccine.  But some experts have raised concerns about that plan, saying scientists will be deprived of valuable data and warning that some people will end up getting the vaccine ahead of others in their priority group. Moderna proposes to ship 20 million this month and 80 million more in the first quarter of 2021, with the remaining 100 million in the second quarter.

U.S. Planning to Close Last Consulates in Russia, Says Report
Agence France Presse/December 19/2020
Donald Trump's outgoing administration is planning to close the two remaining US consulates in Russia, media reports said Friday, as President-elect Joe Biden prepares to take office amid high tensions with Moscow. The US will close its consulate in the far eastern city of Vladivostok and suspend operations at its post in Yekaterinburg, CNN reported, citing a December 10 letter sent to Congress from the State Department. The move comes in "response to ongoing staffing challenges for the US Mission in Russia in the wake of the 2017 Russian-imposed personnel cap on the US Mission and the resultant impasse with Russia over diplomatic visas," the report said, citing the letter. Ten diplomats assigned to the consulates will reportedly be relocated to the US embassy in Moscow, while 33 local staff will lose their jobs. "No action related to the Russian consulates in the United States is planned," CNN cited the letter as saying.
The closures would leave the embassy in Moscow as the United States' last diplomatic mission in Russia. In March 2018 Moscow ordered the closure of the US consulate in St Petersburg amid a diplomatic spat sparked by the poisoning of Sergei Skripal on UK soil. It was unclear whether the closures would happen before January 20, when President-elect Biden takes office. AFP reached out to the State Department for comment on the report, but did not receive a response. On Friday Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Russia was "pretty clearly" behind a devastating cyberattack on several US government agencies that security experts say could allow attackers unfettered access to critical IT systems and electric power grids. Yohannes Abraham, executive director for the Biden transition team, said the hack was of "great concern" and that under the new administration cyber attacks would meet a response inflicting "substantial cost."Russia has denied any involvement in the cyberattacks.

IMF Approves Release of $1.67 Billion in Aid to Egypt

Agence France Presse/December 19/2020
The board of the International Monetary Fund on Friday approved the release of a second tranche of aid valued at $1.67 billion for Egypt, saying public debt and Covid-19 threatened its economic recovery. In June, the board approved a one-year, $5.2 billion financing package for Egypt. With the latest disbursement, more than $3.6 billion will have been released. "The Egyptian authorities have managed well the Covid-19 pandemic and the related disruption to economic activity," Antoinette Sayeh, the IMF deputy managing director, said. "There are still risks to the outlook particularly as a second wave of the pandemic increases uncertainty about the pace of the domestic and global recovery. "The high level of public debt and gross financing needs also leave Egypt vulnerable to volatility in global financial conditions." The IMF carried out a virtual mission to Egypt last month and then announced an agreement in principle for the release of the second tranche, which has now been approved by the board of directors.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 19-20/2020

China: The Conquest of Hollywood
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/December 19/2020
One Hollywood producer told PEN America that suggestions for projects critical of China aroused the fear that "you or your company will actively be blacklisted, and they will interfere with your current or future project. So not only will you bear the brunt [of your decision], but also your company, and future companies that you work for. And that's absolutely in the back of our minds."
"It's not just the Hollywood issue, it's not just the tech issue, it's not just the basketball or the sports issue, or various other industries. ... It's all across the board. To get products and services into that market, there are certain rules you have to play... so they allow you access to the consumers. But those processes... have gotten worse and worse... and more amplified over time.... [It]has got to the point where we either need to stop it now and fight back, or we are just going to lose...." -- Chris Fenton, Hollywood executive and author of Feeding the Dragon: Inside the Trillion Dollar Dilemma Facing Hollywood, the NBA, and American Business. voanews.com, October 16, 2020.
The problem is much larger than just the movie business.
In October, for the first time, China overtook North America as the world's largest film market. Pictured: Wang Jianlin (second from left), chairman of China's Wanda Group, attends the opening ceremony of the Wanda Qingdao Movie Metropolis, billed as "China's answer to Hollywood," in Qingdao on April 28, 2018.
In October, for the first time, China overtook North America as the world's largest film market. "Movie ticket sales in China for 2020 climbed to $1.988 billion on Sunday, surpassing North America's total of $1.937 billion, according to data from Artisan Gateway. The gap is expected to widen considerably by year's end," wrote The Hollywood Reporter on October 18. "Analysts have long predicted that the world's most populous country would one day top the global charts. But the results still represent a historic sea change".
"The day has finally arrived when China is the world's No.1 film market, surpassing the box office total of North America for 2020," said the authorized government portal site to China, published under the auspices of China's State Council Information Office, also known as the CCP's Foreign Propaganda Office, China.org.cn, in a self-congratulatory article, "China officially the world's biggest film market." The article, published on October 20, went on to mention the Chinese blockbuster, The Eight Hundred, a WWII movie about a group of Chinese soldiers under siege by the Japanese army, which was the highest grossing film in the world in 2020, as well as a handful of other Chinese-made films scheduled for release in the final quarter of 2020.
That is what the CCP has been working towards for at least a decade; a communiqué it released back in October 2011, spoke of "the urgency" of enhancing China's "soft power and the international influence of its own culture" and the wish to "build our country into a socialist cultural superpower".
The development is bad news for Hollywood, which for years has sought more access to China's enormous and lucrative market. China no longer relies on American blockbusters to fill its cinemas. Hollywood, however, needs the Chinese market to make its movies a financial success.
Since 2012, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has permitted a quota of just 34 foreign films -- before 2012, the numbers were even lower. Only films that meet the strict demands of the censors of the Central Propaganda Department of the CCP are even eligible for consideration to the enormous and lucrative Chinese market. The Central Propaganda Department is responsible for "supervising national film production, distribution, and screening, organizing the review of film content...the import and export of all films, media, publications and other content...including any cooperation with overseas organizations". The Central Propaganda Department works to "implement the party's propaganda guidelines".
"China's regulations and processes for approving foreign films reflect the Chinese Communist Party's position that art, including film, is a method of social control," according to a 2015 staff research paper for the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, "Directed by Hollywood, Edited by China: How China's Censorship and Influence Affect Films Worldwide."
"As a result of these regulations, Hollywood filmmakers are required to cut out any scenes, dialogue, and themes that may be perceived as a slight to the Chinese government. With an eye toward distribution in China, American filmmakers increasingly edit films in anticipation of Chinese censors' many potential sensitivities".
"Hollywood's decision makers," noted an August report, Made in Hollywood, Censored by Beijing, published by American PEN "are increasingly envisioning the desires of the CCP censor when deciding what film projects to greenlight..."
"The Chinese Communist Party...holds major sway over whether a Hollywood movie will be profitable or not—and studio executives know it. The result is a system in which Beijing bureaucrats can demand changes to Hollywood movies—or expect Hollywood insiders to anticipate and make these changes, unprompted—without any significant hue or cry over such censorship."
"Beijing uses the substantial leverage it has over Hollywood to political effect", according to American PEN.
"Pushing Hollywood decision-makers to present a sanitized and positive image of China and its ruling party, and encouraging Hollywood films to promote messages that align with its political interests. Beijing's goal is not merely to prevent its own population from receiving messages that it deems hostile to its interests, although that is a major element of its censorship structure. Instead, the CCP wants to proactively influence Hollywood toward telling stories that flatter it and play to its political interests".
The censorship takes different forms. There are films that Hollywood no longer makes, because they would upset the CCP and instantly end all business with China. These might include films with political themes, such as Kundun and Seven Years in Tibet, about China's invasion and occupation of Tibet, or Red Corner, about the human rights abuses in China's legal system. After those movies were made in 1997, China ordered a halt to business with the three Hollywood studios distributing the films, and apologies were distributed instead. "We made a stupid mistake. The bad news is that the film was made; the good news is that nobody watched it," Disney Chief Executive Officer Michael Eisner told Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji about Kundun in 1998. "Here I want to apologize, and in the future we should prevent this sort of thing, which insults our friends, from happening."
It is not just the most sensitive political issues that are a no-go. Even fictional depictions of Chinese villains are removed from Hollywood films, before they are viewed by a single Chinese censor. Red Dawn, a remake of an older movie about a Soviet invasion of America, was digitally altered, changing the Chinese invading soldiers to North Korean ones, in order not to make the Chinese look bad. At the time, a producer and distributor of films in China, Dan Mintz, of DMG Entertainment, said that if the movie had been released without altering the Chinese invaders, "there would have been a real backlash. It's like being invited to a dinner party and insulting the host all night long. There's no way to look good.... The film itself was not a smart move."
Sometimes facts are also manipulated to fit a narrative that will please China. In the 2013 film, Gravity, in which Sandra Bullock played an American astronaut, Russian satellite debris damaged her space shuttle and Bullock only saved herself by getting to a Chinese space station. In reality, however, "the Russians have never sent a missile into one of their own satellites, as the movie depicts. But the Chinese did exactly that in 2007", wrote Michael Pillsbury in The Hundred Year Marathon.
"US Intelligence Officials were given no warning by the Chinese about their missile launch and in fact had been repeatedly assured that the Chinese government did not have an antisatellite program. The Chinese recklessly created by far the largest, most dangerous space debris field in history, but the Russians get the blame in the movie. The effect of these misrepresentations is that the Chinese look like heroes in Gravity... the writers went out of their way to distort the history of what has happened in space...."
One Hollywood producer said that suggestions for projects critical of China aroused the fear that "you or your company will actively be blacklisted, and they will interfere with your current or future project. So not only will you bear the brunt [of your decision], but also your company, and future companies that you work for. And that's absolutely in the back of our minds."
Another Hollywood producer said, "It is tough to figure out how to self-censor... You just don't know what is right and what is wrong." China deliberately makes the issue of what will pass the censors and what will not opaque. Such ambiguity ensures that Hollywood producers will prefer to self-censor more, rather than risk being rejected by the censors.
One way for Hollywood studios to bypass the quota of 34 foreign films per year is to co-produce films with Chinese production companies, thereby effectively giving the CCP creative control of the project. Such partnerships also, unsurprisingly, often appear to pander to China. In the highest-grossing U.S.-Chinese co-production, The Meg – dubbed by some "a mediocre Jaws update -- for example, Chinese moviegoers saw through the pandering. "In this movie, Westerners were either swallowed whole or ripped apart. But all of the Eastern characters all died a graceful death, with their faces unscathed..." one viewer commented. Another said: "This megalodon, which eats only foreigners and leaves a beach-full of Chinese people unscathed, is so thoughtful."
China has "amazing influence over Hollywood" according to Chris Fenton, a long-time Hollywood executive and author of Feeding the Dragon: Inside the Trillion Dollar Dilemma Facing Hollywood, the NBA, and American Business.
"Even if a particular movie or TV series isn't expected to be monetized in China. Maybe they go and say: 'The budget for this film doesn't need the China market to create revenues for it. We are going to work on it, be free with the content and make it for America and other democratic countries.' Well in that case, China does find out about those movies and knows about them, even if that particular film does not get into China, China will penalize the studio or filmmakers involved with that particular movie, so that they can't get other movies in".
Most moviegoers are probably not aware that the CCP had a say over the movie they are watching: censored Hollywood movies do not come with a label stating that fact. Nor is CCP censorship a topic that Hollywood is willing to discuss openly. "One of the most striking things about PEN America's research was how reticent Hollywood professionals were to speak either specifically or publicly on this issue," Made in Hollywood, Censored by Beijing found.
"The reasons given for such reticence were several, but they all revolved around fear of a negative reaction—from Beijing, from their employer, or from Hollywood at large. As one Hollywood producer said to PEN America, 'All of us are fearful of being named in an article even generally discussing China in Hollywood.'"
It is incongruous, to put it kindly, for Hollywood to submit to censorship and pandering to the CCP for the sake of financial gain, while simultaneously selling itself as a progressive industry that claims to speak truth to power, and stand for social justice and the equal opportunity for everyone, regardless of gender, skin color, ethnicity, religion, or sexual orientation. Such pretense does not sit well with the fact that Tibetans and Uighur Muslims, to mention just two groups, do not exist in the Hollywood universe anymore, only because the CCP said so. Surely, that is something that ought to be frequently questioned and loudly debated -- unless there is now a general consensus that the CCP should forever decide what movies are made in the US, Europe and beyond. If this is what happens without so much as a struggle in the large studios, what hope is there for smaller studios, independent filmmakers and others?
The problem is much larger than just the movie business.
"It's not just the Hollywood issue, it's not just the tech issue, it's not just the basketball or the sports issue, or various other industries...." Chris Fenton said.
"It's all across the board. To get products and services into that market, there are certain rules you have to play... so they allow you access to the consumers. But those processes... have gotten worse and worse... and more amplified over time....[It] has got to the point where we either need to stop it now and fight back, or we are just going to lose...."
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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New star rises in the east
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/December 19/2020
The big story of the 21st century will be the ascent of China and a shift in both economic and political power from West to East.
This has been a long time coming, but we are nearing some kind of a climax. Several economists forecast that by 2024 China’s economy as measured by GDP will overtake that of the US. The exact year matters less than the ironclad fact that China’s economy will overtake America’s in this decade. This will also have huge geopolitical ramifications. You can ask any sporting champion what they feel like when they are dethroned from pole position. They will attest to psychological difficulties in accepting the new reality. So how will America and its new president deal with what is unfolding?
Donald Trump had a point when he questioned some of China’s behavior, but his tariffs may simply haveemboldened Beijing. For example, the ban on Huawei, while probably justified, led China down the path of aspiring to become self-sufficient in semiconductor technology. Beijing’s economic blueprint makes technology and the quest for self-sufficiency a key priority, and China intends to become a world leader in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and robotics within the next 15 years.
Joe Biden has made clear that he will remain tough on China, and he needs to, because the narrative in the US, in both major parties, has become distinctly skeptical of Beijing. We can expect the Biden approach to be more consistent than the Trump approach.
On the political stage, Biden will revert to the US mantra of defending democracy and human rights. Therefore, we can expect him to be more outspoken on mass imprisonment of the Uighur population and other human rights violations within China — not just in Hong Kong.
Biden, who is close to the labor unions, will view trade through the lens of protecting American jobs. This will have moved up on his priority list now that the pandemic-ravaged US economy faces mass unemployment. It will be Biden’s job to keep his country safe from the virus and to fight growing inequalities. The latter can only happen if he puts the nation back to work. The long lines in front of food distribution centers will grow smaller only when people receive paychecks again.
Whichever way we look at this story, the post-1945 Pax Americana is about to run its course and Beijing has ascended as a force to be contended with.
Climate change will be another priority for Biden. He will address these concerns, because they are his too and because the left wing of his party will hold his feet to the fire. This is where the US can play a big leadership role, when it comes to issues such as a universal carbon tax applying globally. China has vowed to become carbon neutral by 2060, but it is not necessarily delivering on this issue judging from how many new coal-fired power plants have been fired up.
Let there be no confusion: Many of these battles will not be fought in China or in the US, but in third countries. The US will have to deal with what the new assertiveness of China’s foreign policy means in the South China Sea, the Straits of Taiwan, across the stretch of the Belt and Road countries in southeast and central Asia, the Middle East and Africa. One could argue that the US dropped the ball with regards to the geopolitical ramifications of the Belt and Road Initiative and China’s raw material / investment push into Africa and Latin America, which had been in the making for several decades.
China’s “charm offensive” will feel very different from Pax Americana. The latter had economic and geopolitical power elements for sure, but it was underpinned with concerns for democracy and human rights, and aimed to create allies rather than vassal states. China’s approach is more economically minded and the end goal is to promote its own economy and position of power than a level playing field. Going forward this has ramifications for the geographies mentioned above.
Lastly and always, there is money: The big asset managers are all eager to broaden their base in China. The bifurcation of economic development East and West of Suez during the pandemic has accelerated this trend, if anything. China was the first country to be affected by COVID-19. Its economy was also the first to emerge from the pandemic comparatively unscathed. This exerts an unimaginable pull for money managers’ dollars.
Beijing has opened the capital markets somewhat, for instance allowing foreign financial institutions to take majority control of their divisions. More open money markets work both ways. They make foreign investors feel more comfortable and by that virtue attract more foreign investment. This is a clever move from the Chinese perspective in more ways than one, given the big influence Wall Street lobbyists have on Capitol Hill.
Whichever way we look at this story, the post-1945 Pax Americana is about to run its course and Beijing has ascended as a force to be contended with. That does not mean that Washington and its geopolitical influence are riding into the sunset. It means, however, that Beijing is the vital new kid on the block and will not shy away from asserting itself.
*Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources. Twitter: @MeyerResources

How ‘America first’ has mostly failed the US
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/December 19/2020

As Donald Trump enters his final month in office, it is increasingly clear that his much-hyped “America first” foreign policy revolution has largely failed.
When he entered the White House four years ago, Trump promised a platform of policies that could have reshaped US foreign and trade policy more radically than at any point since the beginning of the Cold War, when Harry Truman helped build a multidecade, bipartisan consensus around US global leadership.
To be fair, Trump has made some moves to deviate from this postwar orthodoxy by withdrawing from initiatives such as the Paris climate deal and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, but what was billed as a transformative shift has proved threadbare and incoherent in practice, despite much bluster.
Seeking to dismantle previous policies, which could all be reversed again by Joe Biden in the next four years, is one thing. But building sturdy foundations of a new order, as Truman put in place, is quite another. This is why Trump has failed to forge any clear or coherent doctrine centered on “America first,” despite the political support this agenda enjoys in much of the US from those skeptical about US engagement overseas.
This is not to say that Trump has had no foreign policy achievements. He has, for instance, brokered Middle East peace agreements between Israel and Bahrain, the UAE, Sudan and Morocco that have been welcomed by many.
Nevertheless, much of US policy has been characterized by incoherence and failure. On issue after issue Trump has flip flopped and U-turned, including his stance toward NATO, which in his words has been both “obsolete” and “not obsolete.”
Another example is Trump’s renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a process he has celebrated as a “wonderful” and “historical transaction” when a revised deal was announced last year. However, the concessions he won were not nearly as big as he claimed possible after calling NAFTA the “worst trade deal ever,” underlining why he decided for public relations reasons to give the pact a new name to the United States-Mexico-Canada deal to try to disguise the significant continuities from before.
As Donald Trump enters his final month in office, it is increasingly clear that his much-hyped “America first” foreign policy revolution has largely failed.
Moreover, he has also failed to push through signature initiatives in North Korea where he attempted to preside over “denuclearization” of the Korean peninsula and seal a peace treaty between North and South to supplement the armistice ending the 1950-53 Korean War. Another example is Russia, where Trump’s instincts to redefine relations in a significantly warmer direction alarmed even allies in his administration, and was set back by tightened US sanctions legislation.
These failures, sleights of hand, and flip-flops reflect not just the ad-hoc nature of the president’s style of governing, but also the divisions within his team on key foreign issues. While Trump appears to be much more aligned with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo than predecessor Rex Tillerson, the divisions within his top team have gone much deeper than the State Department.
Trump’s relationship with key intelligence officials, including Dan Coats, who was CIA director from 2017 to last year, was extraordinary and unprecedented. The president has been at odds with the intelligence community on issues from North Korea to Iran and Daesh.
Another example is Trump’s announcement a year ago that US military personnel in Syria were “all coming back and they are coming back now.” This proclamation, which appeared not to have been shared in advance with allies, was a contributory factor in the resignation of defense secretary Jim Mattis and, later, national security adviser John Bolton.
The one unquestioned accomplishment of Trump’s foreign policy has been to provoke significant global backlash as underlined from polls by organizations such as Pew and Gallup. Both have found that the image of US leadership is significantly weaker worldwide, and in some cases at historic lows. Among the key drivers of this is widespread resentment with the way the Trump team has been perceived to make its decisions, which often appear unilateral, leading to a sustained, deep spike in anti-US sentiment that may be only partially reversed under Biden’s presidency.
With his presidency now almost over, Trump’s window of opportunity to put an enduring stamp on foreign policy is slim. While he has done much damage, the one saving grace is that no first-order foreign crisis, especially an armed conflict involving the US, has taken place on his watch, for which his ill preparedness and maverick instincts could have been immensely dangerous.
*Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics

What pushes Turkey and Iran to ride out the storm of poem?
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/December 19/2020
There is sometimes a tendency among analysts to overstate the significance of relationships between countries and their contribution to respective national interests when the reality is seemingly different. On the contrary, there is also a tendency to exaggerate the tensions between countries. In particular, Turkey’s foreign relations are read through these angles, which in fact leads to a misreading of the reality beneath the surface.
Last week, a diplomatic spat happened between Ankara and Tehran due to a poem issue, and then within a few days, things got back on track. When reading Turkish-Iranian relations, which is one of the most complicated and fragile ones in the region, it is always crucial to check what’s actually the status of the relationship both, above and the below the surface.
Political tensions sparked when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recited a poem composed by an Azeri poet during an official visit to Baku on Dec. 10 to celebrate Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh. The poem refers to the Aras River that marks the border between Azerbaijan and ethnic-Azerbaijani provinces of northwest Iran. Concerned that the poem recited by the Turkish leader could fan separatism among Iran’s Azeri minority, the next day, Iran summoned the Turkish ambassador to Tehran to express its “harsh condemnation” over the matter.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry considered Erdoğan’s words as "unacceptable and meddlesome." Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif went further, asserting via Twitter that the poem "refers to the forcible separation of areas north [of the] Aras from [the] Iranian motherland. Didn’t he realize he was undermining the sovereignty of the Republic of Azerbaijan?" Iranian politicians went further with aggressive statements, and even Iranian media outlets accused Ankara of fueling separatism in Iran, putting the country’s territorial integrity at risk. In retaliation, the Turkish foreign ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador to Ankara over his country's “aggressive” reaction.
Turkey's ruling party's spokesperson Ömer Çelik immediately reacted to Iranian politicians' remarks, saying "We condemn the ugly language used by some Iranian politicians against our president." Turkey's Communications Director Fahrettin Altun said Iran had distorted the meaning of the poem “to fuel senseless tensions.” This followed phone traffic between foreign ministers of the two countries, and the Iranian side said the parties resolved a misunderstanding. “The parties emphasized the importance of strengthening and expanding the relations between the two countries,” the Iranian embassy in Ankara tweeted.
Iran, which considers Muslim Azerbaijan as a potential threat to its national security, has been providing direct and indirect support to Armenia since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The highest-level remark came from Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani who said Tehran could move past a diplomatic quarrel with Turkey. “In my opinion, with the explanations (Turkish officials) gave, we can move beyond this issue, but the sensitivity of our people is very important,” Rouhani told a televized news conference in Tehran.
Getting back to the beginning, the above statements indicate what has been on the surface in Turkish-Iranian relations. Regarding what is beneath the surface, there is a list of laundry factors that have led to such a reaction from the Iranian side; but few of them would be mentioned here.
There are certain reasons why officials in Tehran have overreacted to the poem. It is hard to say Tehran was happy with Turkey’s active role in the Azerbaijani-Armenian tension and with how the conflict has ended up. Iran, which considers Muslim Azerbaijan as a potential threat to its national security, has been providing direct and indirect support to Armenia since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Secondly, Israel joining the ranks of Turkey and Azerbaijan – with political means – in the recent conflict in Caucasia was a nightmare scenario for Tehran. Although Ankara and Tel Aviv cooperate with and lend support to Azerbaijan differently; two countries are decisively in support of the Azeri leadership. While Azerbaijan brings Turkey and Israel on the same page in Caucasia, it widens the gap between Turkey and Iran- who are two potential rivals for influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Although Turkish-Iranian rivalry in these regions has been muted, it is impossible to neglect Iranian leadership’s concerns over Turkey having the upper hand in this region, where Russia is a dominant player as a regional power broker.
Thirdly, there is still a Syria file that is open despite the Arab uprisings completing their ten-year anniversary this week. There is ongoing cooperation between Iran and Turkey whereby Russia is always involved. However, the degree of cooperation between them should not be exaggerated. While both Ankara and Tehran share certain economic and security interests, their interests are at odds in many areas still. The two states, which have fundamentally different political identities and ideologies, have historically been, and continue to be, rivals despite cooperation in some areas.
Lastly, now that the Biden administration is to take office soon, both Tehran and Ankara have engaged in regional calculations, and this has been the other dimension of how this poem spat ended so quickly. In the past, Turkish and Iranian officials had harsh tit-for-tats that the relations have reached rock bottom due to disagreements on regional matters. Now the stakes are high enough for two sides that the best formula is to sweep the things under the carpet.
*Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey's relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz