LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 16/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
If then you have not been faithful with the dishonest wealth, who will entrust to you the true riches?And if you have not been faithful with what belongs to another, who will give you what is your own
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 16/01-12/:”The Lord Jesus said to the disciples: ‘There was a rich man who had a manager, and charges were brought to him that this man was squandering his property. So he summoned him and said to him, “What is this that I hear about you? Give me an account of your management, because you cannot be my manager any longer.” Then the manager said to himself, “What will I do, now that my master is taking the position away from me? I am not strong enough to dig, and I am ashamed to beg. I have decided what to do so that, when I am dismissed as manager, people may welcome me into their homes.” So, summoning his master’s debtors one by one, he asked the first, “How much do you owe my master?” He answered, “A hundred jugs of olive oil.” He said to him, “Take your bill, sit down quickly, and make it fifty.” Then he asked another, “And how much do you owe?” He replied, “A hundred containers of wheat.” He said to him, “Take your bill and make it eighty.” And his master commended the dishonest manager because he had acted shrewdly; for the children of this age are more shrewd in dealing with their own generation than are the children of light. And I tell you, make friends for yourselves by means of dishonest wealth so that when it is gone, they may welcome you into the eternal homes. ‘Whoever is faithful in a very little is faithful also in much; and whoever is dishonest in a very little is dishonest also in much. If then you have not been faithful with the dishonest wealth, who will entrust to you the true riches? And if you have not been faithful with what belongs to another, who will give you what is your own?

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 15-16/2019
No Trust In Saad Al Hariri/Elias Bejjani
Lebanese protesters clash with police in Beirut for second night
Thousands return to parliament after crackdown in Beirut
Dozens injured as police clash with protesters in Lebanon
Netanyahu: Hezbollah will pay a price if it attacks Israel
Hariri Most Likely to Be Renamed Lebanese PM
Assailants Burn Lebanese Ruling Parties' Offices after Night of Clashes
Hariri Still Insisting on Technocrat Government
Alloush Hints Hariri Won't Refuse to be Re-Designated as PM
FPM, Mustaqbal Offices in Akkar Vandalized
Al-Hassan Orders Probe in Clashes, Warns Protesters of 'Infiltrators'
Intense Clashes between Riot Police, Protesters in Central Beirut
Lebanese burn ruling parties’ offices after night of clashes

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 15-16/2019
US Warns Iran of ‘Decisive’ Response to its Proxy Attacks in Iraq
Israel Threatens Iran with ‘Own Vietnam in Syria’
Hamas Presses Abbas to Issue Elections Decree
Iraq’s Sadr Closes his Movement’s Institutions for a Year
Saudi Crown Prince Receives Pakistani PM in Riyadh
Sisi Inaugurates World Youth Forum, Calls for Ending ‘Discrimination’
Libyan Embassy in Egypt Closes Indefinitely
Qatar Pledges Security, Economic Support to Libya’s GNA
Kuwait Arrests Muslim Brotherhood Member Arriving from Turkey
Britain's Johnson Vows to Repay Trust of Opposition Voters
U.S., China Mini-Deal Offers 'Breathing Space' for Chinese Economy

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 15-16/2019
No Trust In Saad Al Hariri/Elias Bejjani/December 15/2019
The French connection couldn’t save Lebanon/Makram Rabah/The Arab Weekly/December 15/2019
Political impasse, foreign pressure give new political lease on life for Hariri/Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly/December 15/2019
The coming real estate boom/Dan Azzi/Annahar/December 15/2019
A proposal to restructure Lebanon's debt/Michel Fayad/Annahar/December 15/2019
*Seven Ways Economics Can Heal Itself/Noah Smith/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 15/2019
Brussels Prepares for its Next Brexit Punch-up/Lionel Laurent/Bloomberg/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 15/2019
Despots of the Square-Kilometer Empires/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 15/2019
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán: Europe's Solitary Defender of Persecuted Christians/Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/December 15/2019
Another Ignored Genocide of Christians Plagues Burkina Faso/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/December 15/2019
Tehran, Moscow and Beijing – an unholy alliance?/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/December 15/2019
Will cash-hungry Iran hit the wall next year?/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/December 15/2019
A new page in Turkey-Libya relations/Yasar Yakis/Arab News/December 15/2019
Minorities under threat as Turkey’s ruling party embraces Islamism/Zulfikar Dogan/The Arab Weekly/December 15/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 15-16/2019
No Trust In Lebanon's Caretaker PM, Mr. Saad Al Hariri
Elias Bejjani/December 16/2019
Saad Al Hariri protects covertly and covertly the most corrupt officials and businessmen in what is known the Lebanese deep government.
At the same time he has no sovereign or patriotic back bone, to the extent that he has even compromised on his father's assassination (Raffic Al Hariri), and put the ongoing trial by the Special Tribunal For Lebanon (STL) on a marginal scale of his priorities.
In this realm he forged a political alliance with his father's assassins, The Hezbollah Terrorist Militia, whose the STL accused a number of  its security topnotch members to have committed the terrorist assassination in year 2005.
Mr. Hariri, in his PM, capacity has been totally serving Hezbollah's occupation of Lebanon status quo as well as the Iranian-Mullahs' expansionism schemes in exchange for staying as an MP.
Practically, Mr. Hariri is the first politician who should not be trusted any more in any official position.
He is not only one of all of the corrupt Lebanese politicians, but the first of them all.
In summary, No trust for Hariri to head the new Lebanese Government.
Hariri is not a talented or a professional politician and based on his record since 20015 he will never be one.  Meanwhile, he surrounds himself by advisers who in general serve their our businesses and lead him into un-patriotic and non-sovereign deals with the Lebanese warlords and oligarchies.
His record as PM shows that he moves disastrously from one failure to another. He is not the right PM, for dealing with serious and devastating current Lebanese crisis.

Lebanese protesters clash with police in Beirut for second night
AFP/December 15/2019
BEIRUT: Lebanese protesters clashed with police Sunday for the second consecutive night near parliament on the eve of much-delayed consultations to form a new cabinet needed to fix a deepening economic crisis. The renewed clashes in Beirut came as Interior Minister Raya El-Hassan ordered security forces to open a “rapid and transparent” enquiry after dozens were wounded on Saturday night. Undaunted by the violence, thousands of demonstrators flooded central Beirut Sunday ahead of the parliamentary consultations due to begin on Monday to appoint a new premier after weeks of largely peaceful street protests forced the previous cabinet to quit. The unprecedented rallies have swept Lebanon since October 17, demanding the overhaul of a political system deemed inept and corrupt and the formation of an independent government of technocrats.
Clashes again erupted near parliament, with demonstrators throwing water bottles and firecrackers at the security forces who responded with tear gas and water canon, an AFP photographer said.
There was no immediate reports of casualties.
But the clashes threatened a repeat of scenes on Saturday evening that had seen dozens of people hurt when security forces used tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse demonstrators who tried to breach metal barricades near the legislature. The Lebanese civil defense said they took 36 injured to hospital and treated 54 people at the scene on Saturday night. The Lebanese Red Cross said it ferried 15 people to hospitals, while 37 others were given first aid on site.The Red Cross said the injured included protesters and security forces, with some affected by tear gas and others struck by stones.
Lebanese security forces said about 20 from their ranks were hospitalized.
An AFP photographer saw men in plainclothes hitting protesters on Saturday, while anti-riot police fired rubber bullets at protesters throwing stones. Hassan demanded the identification of those responsible for the most violent episode since the anti-government protests began in October.
She warned against “infiltrators” seeking to use protests to provoke “confrontations.”Amnesty International’s Diala Haidar decried the “excessive use of force” in response to “overwhelmingly peaceful protest.”
“The intention was clearly to prevent protesters gathering,” she said, adding that masked men in civilian clothes joined security forces in “violently attacking protesters.”The clashes lasted until the early hours of Sunday, with demonstrators chanting slogans against outgoing prime minister Saad Hariri, who stepped down on Oct: 29, and parliament’s veteran speaker Nabib Berri.
The names of various potential candidates to replace Hariri have been circulated in recent weeks but powerful political parties in the multi-confessional country have failed to agree on a new premier. Last Sunday the Sunni Muslim establishment threw its support behind Hariri returning, further angering protesters.
Parliamentary consultations are due to begin Monday at 10:30 am (0830 GMT). The UN insisted on the importance of the talks, with its Lebanon coordinator Jan Kubis urging politicians to “act responsibly.”“Tomorrow is the moment of truth. Either politicians will show at this critical moment of deep complex crisis they understand the needs of #Lebanon and its people and help steer a peaceful way forward, or that they remain captive of their traditional habits and attitudes,” Kubis tweeted. Sunday’s demonstration in Beirut began peacefully with protesters waving Lebanese flags and chanting “Hariri will not return.”
“Change needs time and patience and we will not stop until we achieve our goals and remove this regime completely,” said 23-year-old protester Carla. “We don’t want Hariri because he is a partner in (official) corruption,” she added. “I am opposed to Hariri returning as head of the government and I don’t understand why they can’t find anyone else,” said Nour, a pharmacist. “There are many competent people... who are independent,” she added. The head of the Internal Security Forces, Brig. Imad Othman, spoke to protesters in Beirut Sunday, urging them to remain peaceful and let security forces carry out their duties unhindered. The process of forming a government will take place as Lebanon’s debt-burdened economy has been sliding toward collapse. The country is facing a dollar liquidity crisis, with banks limiting the withdrawal and transfer of the greenback, which has been selling for more than 2,000 Lebanese pounds on the parallel market for the first time since it was officially pegged at 1,507 in 1997. The international community has urged a new cabinet to be formed swiftly to implement key economic reforms and unlock international aid. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on Sunday urged Lebanese leaders to push to resolve the crisis paralysing the country, warning of a “dramatic situation.”

Thousands return to parliament after crackdown in Beirut
Associated Press/December 15/2019
Attackers in northern Lebanon also set fire to the offices of two major political parties, the state-run National News Agency said.
BEIRUT: Thousands of Lebanese protesters defiantly returned Sunday to rally outside parliament in Beirut, hours after security forces chased them out, using tear gas and rubber bullets and injuring dozens. Saturday night into Sunday saw one of the most violent crackdowns on protesters since nationwide anti-government demonstrations began two months ago, leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Oct. 29. Attackers in northern Lebanon also set fire to the offices of two major political parties, the state-run National News Agency said.
The protesters who showed up in Beirut on Sunday chanted against the security crackdown and called for an independent new head of government unaffiliated with established political parties.
Others raised posters saying the tear gas won’t keep them away. “We are crying already,” said one, in a jab at the deep economic crisis Lebanese are facing. The streets leading to parliament were filled with men, women and even children. Some huddled in smaller groups while others were lifted on shoulders chanting in megaphones. The overnight confrontations in Beirut left more than 130 people injured, according to the Red Cross and the Lebanese Civil Defense. The Red Cross said none of the injured were in serious condition and most of them were treated on the spot.
The violence and Sunday’s rally came just hours before the president was due to meet with representatives of parliamentary blocs to name a new prime minister. After weeks of bickering and despite calls from the protesters for a technocratic government, politicians seem set on bringing Hariri back to the post. The demonstrators were clear they wouldn’t accept his return. “Saad, Saad, Saad, don’t dream of it anymore.”
“I came back today to pressure the parliament to make the right choice tomorrow and choose a prime minister from outside the political parties. If they don’t choose someone acceptable, we will be back to the streets again and again,” said Chakib Abillamah, a protester and businessman who was demonstrating Saturday when violence broke out.
Caline Mouawad, a lawyer, said she watched as security forces violently broke up the protests and decided to join in solidarity. “What happened last night provoked me. I came down even it means getting beaten tonight.” Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan on Sunday ordered an investigation into the clashes, which she said injured both protesters and security forces. She said she watched the confrontations “with concern, sadness and shock.”Al-Hassan blamed “infiltrators” for instigating violence and called on the demonstrators to be wary of those who want to exploit their protests for political reasons. She didn’t elaborate.
The head of the Internal Security Forces, Maj. Gen. Imad Osman, turned up at the protest rally Sunday. He told reporters on the scene that the right to protest was guaranteed by the law. “But calm down, no need for violence,” he said, appealing to protesters. In the northern Akkar district, attackers broke the windows and set fire to the local office of Hariri’s political party in the town of Kharibet al-Jundi. Photos circulated on social media of shattered glass and the aftermath of the fire, which torched the building. In a separate attack in Akkar district, assailants stormed the local office of the largest party in parliament, affiliated with President Michel Aoun and headed by Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil. The party said the contents of the office in the town of Jedidat al-Juma had also been smashed and burned. The mayhem came just hours after the capital was rocked by violence. Lebanese security forces fired rubber bullets, tear gas and used water cannons throughout the night to disperse anti-government protesters from the city center — the epicenter of the protest movement in Beirut — and around parliament. The protests had largely been peacefully since they began on Oct. 17.

Dozens injured as police clash with protesters in Lebanon
Al Jazeera/December 16/2019
Security forces use rubber bullets, tear gas and water cannon to disperse anti-government demonstrators in Beirut.
Dozens of people were injured in Lebanon's capital as security forces fired rubber bullets, tear gas and water cannon to disperse anti-government protesters from the city centre. Sunday morning's violence around the epicentre of the protest site in Beirut was some of the worst since the demonstrations began two months ago. Clashes brought the central area to a standstill for more than eight hours as security forces fired a stream of tear gas canisters at hundreds of protesters, who set fires in rubbish bins on the main streets, in part to mitigate the effects of the gas.
The Red Cross and the Lebanese Civil Defence said at least 46 people were injured and transported to hospitals. More protests are expected later on Sunday. The protesters chanted slogans against security forces and government officials and pelted police with stones in scenes not seen in the capital since the demonstrations began on October 17.
At one point, the scuffles reached the headquarters of one of the main Lebanese political parties, the Kataeb, where many protesters were taking cover. Samy Gemayel, the head of the Kataeb, appeared on local TV stations as he tried to separate the protesters from advancing security forces. Lebanon is facing one of its worst economic crises in decades, and the protesters accuse the ruling political class in place for 30 years of mismanagement and corruption. The violence comes just two days before the president holds talks with different parliamentary blocs to name a new prime minister. The government headed by former Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on October 29, two weeks after the nationwide protests began. Political groups have been unable to agree on a new candidate while protesters have called for a government unaffiliated with established political parties.
The protesters also chanted: "The people want to bring down the regime." They accused government forces of excessive force.
Attacking demonstrators
The trouble started on Saturday when dozens of men, some wearing masks, threw stones and firecrackers at security forces on one edge of the protest camp in central Beirut. They were supporters of the Shia Hezbollah and Amal groups, angered by some of the criticism of their leaders by anti-government protesters. It was the second time this week the groups tried to attack the protest camp. The National News Agency said one member of security forces was injured. Local leaders, including a mosque preacher, appealed for calm. Hours later, hundreds of anti-government protesters, including women, gathered outside Parliament, hundreds of metres away from the protest camp. Chaos ensued with reports of an attack on the anti-government rally, leading to a confrontation with security forces who tried to disperse the protesters.
Lebanon Beirut
Dozens of protesters were injured in the latest clashes [Hussein Malla/AP]
For the first time since the protests erupted in Beirut, anti-riot police fired rubber-coated bullets as they chased the demonstrators away from the area.It was not clear what caused the crackdown. The parliament speaker is the head of the Shia Amal group. The clashes spread to streets surrounding the protest camp, engulfing the area in thick, white smoke and the odour of tear gas. Security forces chased protesters around central Beirut, some firing rubber bullets and several volleys of tear gas from armoured vehicles. Dozens of protesters had travelled to Beirut from the northern city of Tripoli to take part in the rally outside the parliament building. The National News Agency reported some shop windows in the commercial part of central Beirut were smashed by vandals. One officer was injured in the eye when a protester hit him with a stone, according to an Associated Press reporter.
Early on Sunday, nearly a dozen riot police stood over two protesters and beat them with batons. The two were later taken away to be treated by medics. Tension has been building in the protest camp. Some accused activists who organise discussions in the camp under the name "the Hub" of hosting critics of Hezbollah and calling for normalisation of ties with Israel. The tent was attacked earlier in the week with firecrackers, burning it down. On Saturday, a rally to support the Hub was cancelled shortly before the attempted attack on the protest camp.

Netanyahu: Hezbollah will pay a price if it attacks Israel
Gov’t still working hard on national security, despite third election, PM says.
Jerusalem Post/December 15/2019
Hezbollah had better not dare attack Israel or it will pay, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned at the opening of Sunday’s cabinet meeting. “If Hezbollah dares to attack Israel, the organization and the country of Lebanon, which allows attacks against us from its territory, will pay a heavy price,” he said.
The prime minister referred to a recent statement by Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Maj.-Gen. Murteza Qurbani that Iran will “destroy Tel Aviv from Lebanon.”“He exposed a simple truth,” Netanyahu said. “Hezbollah is simply the executive arm of Iran from Lebanon, against Israel.” The prime minister added that holding a third election in less than a year will not distract the government from handling national security matters. “Unfortunately, we are entering a third election campaign, an unnecessary election that was forced on the country,” he said. “But as you see, the government is continuing to work vigorously in all important areas, first and foremost in matters of security.” Netanyahu said he cannot give details of what happens in security cabinet meetings, “but you see the results. The cabinet and security cabinet’s activities will continue as needed until the day of the election, and I hope after it, as well.”
Netanyahu also congratulated UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson for winning Thursday’s general election in the UK. “This is also a clear victory in the fight against antisemitism,” Netanyahu said. UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has been accused of nearly a dozen of instances of antisemitic statements and actions, and has allowed Jew-hatred to fester in his party with few consequences in recent years. Labour suffered its greatest loss since 1935 in Thursday’s election. “I expect to continue working with Boris Johnson in the coming years to continue strengthening the excellent relations between Israel and Great Britain,” Netanyahu added. “They can be seen in our great trade numbers, in tourism and many other areas. They can also be seen in the area of security, in the fight against terrorism in a way that we hadn’t seen in previous years.”

Hariri Most Likely to Be Renamed Lebanese PM
Beirut - Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 15 December, 2019
Saad Hariri is expected to be named Lebanon’s new prime minister, a position he had resigned from in October following unprecedented mass anti-government protests. He is likely to garner the backing of the majority of parliamentary blocs that are set to meet Monday for binding consultations with President Michel Aoun. Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Lebanese Forces appears to be leaning towards naming Hariri as premier. The Shiite Hezbollah and Amal parties will also name Hariri given the lack of an alternative candidate, added the sources. Presidential sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the consultations will not be postponed as they were last week when another candidate, Samir al-Khatib withdrew his nomination a day earlier. Aoun, meanwhile, is still adamant about forming a government of technocrats and political figures. The protesters have been vocal in their demand for the formation of a government comprised solely of technocrats. The sources said the president is keen on a government of technocrats and politicians because it will grant the cabinet political cover for its decisions. The normal and expected disputes over shares in cabinet will ensue should officials agree on such a government, they predicted. Barring any surprises, Hariri is expected to receive the votes of over 70 lawmakers during Monday’s consultations. He will enjoy the backing of the Progressive Socialist Party with nine MPs, Hezbollah with 13, Amal with 17, al-Azem party of former PM Najib Mikati with four, Lebanese Forces with 15, and Hariri’s Mustaqbal bloc with 18. Former PM Tammam Salam is set to name Hariri, revealed his sources. The Marada Movement and independent lawmakers have yet to name a candidate. The Kataeb party had previously declared that it will name former ambassador Nawwaf Salam.

Assailants Burn Lebanese Ruling Parties' Offices after Night of Clashes
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 15 December, 2019
Attackers in northern Lebanon set fire to the offices of two major political parties on Sunday, the state-run National News Agency said. The assaults came just hours after the capital Beirut was rocked by the most violent government crackdown on protesters since nationwide demonstrations began two months ago. Lebanese security forces fired rubber bullets, tear gas and used water cannons throughout the night to disperse anti-government protesters from the city center — the epicenter of the protest movement in Beirut — and around parliament. The overnight confrontations in Beirut left more than 130 people injured, according to the Red Cross and the Lebanese Civil Defense. The confrontations were preceded by clashes between counter-protesters - namely supporters of the Shiite Hezbollah and Amal parties - with riot police in Beirut.In the northern Akkar district on Sunday, attackers broke the windows and torched the local office for resigned Prime Minister Saad Hariri's Mustaqbal movement in the town of Kharibet al-Jindi. In a separate attack in Akkar district, assailants stormed the local office of the Free Patriotic Movement, founded by President Michel Aoun and headed by his son-in-law, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil. The FPM, which boasts the greatest number of MPs in parliament, said the contents of the office in Jedidat al-Juma town had also been smashed and burned. Lebanon is facing one of its worst economic crises in decades, and the protesters accuse the ruling political class in place for three decades of mismanagement and corruption. While protesters have rallied against the entire political class, Bassil is arguably the most reviled leader among the protesters. The violence comes a day before the president is due to hold talks with different parliamentary blocs to name a new prime minister on Monday. Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan on Sunday ordered an investigation into the clashes which she said injured both protesters and security forces. She said she watched the confrontations “with concern, sadness and shock.”Al-Hassan blamed “infiltrators" for instigating the friction and called on the demonstrators to be wary of those who want to exploit their protests for political reasons. She didn't elaborate. Nationwide protests began on October 17, and the government headed by Hariri resigned two weeks later. Political parties have since been bickering over the shape and form of the new Cabinet. Protesters want a technocratic government, not affiliated with established political parties. After weeks of back and forth, Hariri has emerged as the likely candidate for the job.

Hariri Still Insisting on Technocrat Government
Naharnet/December 15/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s will not change his stance on the need to form a government of experts that would be able to confront the economic and social challenges, sources close to him said.
“Should he be designated to form the new government, PM Hariri will seek to form an integrated team comprising figures who have expertise,” LBCI TV quoted the Center House sources as saying. “Al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc will emphasize on this approach in the parliamentary consultations scheduled for tomorrow,” the sources added.

Alloush Hints Hariri Won't Refuse to be Re-Designated as PM
Naharnet/December 15/2019
Senior al-Mustaqbal Movement official ex-MP Mustafa Alloush has hinted that caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri will not reject his re-nomination for the PM post in Monday’s binding parliamentary consultations. “Hariri does not want to dodge his responsibilities in these critical moments,” Alloush said in a TV interview. “Al-Mustaqbal bloc will vote for Hariri but we don’t know how the parliamentary consultations will go tomorrow,” he added.

FPM, Mustaqbal Offices in Akkar Vandalized
Naharnet/December 15/2019
Unknown individuals overnight vandalized two offices belonging to the Free Patriotic Movement and al-Mustaqbal Movement in the northern district of Akkar, the National News Agency said. NNA said the FPM’s office in the Akkar town of al-Joumeh was attacked around 3:00 am. “The unknown assailants smashed the outer glass door and torched the office before fleeing to an unknown destination,” the agency said. Mustaqbal’s office in the Akkar town of Khreibet al-Jendi was meanwhile vandalized in the same manner. NNA said security forces inspected the two offices and launched a probe to identify the culprits. Al-Mustaqbal Movement meanwhile issued a statement strongly condemning the attack on its office in Khreibet al-Jendi, saying the concurrence of the incident with the attack on the FPM office raises suspicion that “unknown sides are trying to exploit contradictions and stir strife among the sons of the same region.”The assaults came just hours after the capital Beirut was rocked by the most violent government crackdown on protesters since nationwide demonstrations began two months ago.

Al-Hassan Orders Probe in Clashes, Warns Protesters of 'Infiltrators'
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 15/2019
Caretaker Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan on Sunday said she has ordered a probe into the fierce overnight clashes between protesters and riot police in central Beirut.
“I was concerned, saddened and astounded as I followed up throughout the night yesterday on the confrontations in the vicinity of parliament and on Beirut’s streets, which led to clashes between security forces and citizens and injuries on both sides,” al-Hassan said in a statement.
“Due to the infiltration of some elements and the multiple missions of security forces, and to pinpoint responsibilities and preserve protesters’ rights, I have asked the command of the Internal Security Forces to conduct a speedy and transparent probe to identify the culprits and the responsibilities in order to take further measures,” al-Hassan added.
“I also call on protesters to be cautious of the presence of certain sides that are trying to exploit their rightful demos, or to confront them, with the aim of sparking a clash between them and security forces who are trying to protect them and their right to assembly,” the minister went on to say, warning that such sides might have “political motives.”Riot police fired rubber bullets, tear gas and used water cannons to disperse anti-government protesters from central Beirut in clashes that lasted for hours into early Sunday. The violence around the epicenter of the protest in Beirut was some of the worst since the demonstrations began two months ago. Dozens of protesters were injured, including some beaten repeatedly with batons by security forces. The clashes brought the downtown area to a standstill for over eight hours as security forces fired a stream of tear gas canisters at the hundreds of protesters, who set fires in trash cans on the main streets, in part to mitigate the effects of tear gas.
The protesters chanted slogans against security forces and government officials, and pelted police with stones in scenes not seen in the capital since the demonstrations began on Oct. 17. At one point, the scuffles reached the headquarters of the Kataeb Party in Saifi, where many protesters were taking cover. Kataeb chief Sami Gemayel appeared on local TV stations as he tried to separate the protesters from advancing security forces. Lebanon is facing one of its worst economic crises in decades, and the protesters accuse the ruling political class in place for three decades of mismanagement and corruption. The violence comes just two days before the president is due to hold talks with different parliamentary blocs to name a new prime minister. The government headed by former Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned Oct. 29, two weeks after the nationwide protests began. Political groups have been unable to agree on a new candidate while protesters have been calling for a government unaffiliated with established political parties. Local TV station LBCI showed dozens chanting against Hariri, who is emerging as the favorite candidate despite all the political bickering. The protesters also shouted "The people want to bring down the regime" and accused government forces of excessive force.
More protests are expected later Sunday. For the first time since the protests erupted in Beirut, anti-riot police fired rubber bullets as they chased the demonstrators away from the area overnight. The clashes spread to streets surrounding the protest camp, engulfing the area in thick white smoke and the odor of tear gas. Security forces chased protesters around central Beirut, some firing rubber bullets and several volleys of tear gas from armored vehicles. Dozens of protesters had traveled to Beirut from the northern city of Tripoli to take part in the rally outside the parliament building. The National News Agency reported that some shop windows in the commercial part of central Beirut were smashed by vandals. One officer was injured in the eye when a protester hit him with a stone, according to an Associated Press reporter. Early Sunday, nearly a dozen riot police stood over two protesters and beat them with batons, according to an AP reporter on the scene. The two were later taken away to be treated by medics.

Intense Clashes between Riot Police, Protesters in Central Beirut
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 15/2019
Riot police clashed with anti-government protesters in Beirut late Saturday, firing tear gas heavily to prevent them from breaching barricades near parliament, ahead of talks next week to appoint a new premier.
Lebanon has been swept by unprecedented nationwide protests since October 17, demanding the complete overhaul of a political class deemed inept and corrupt. The government stepped down on October 29, but bitterly divided political parties have subsequently failed to agree on a new premier, although talks are now planned for Monday.Saturday's clashes erupted at the entrance to the street leading to parliament, which was blocked by security forces. Images broadcast by local TVs showed the anti-government protesters trying to break through metal police barricades, and officers firing tear gas and beating them violently. The demonstrators overturned heavy flower pots and shouted slogans hostile to the security forces and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, the footage showed. Clashes followed in Martyrs Square -- the epicentee of protests since October -- and on a bridge in the city center.
Security forces fired rubber bullets, while protesters threw stones.
Protesters were injured by batons while others passed out due to the intensity of tear gas fumes, and members of the security forces were also wounded. Media reports said around 100 people were injurer in the clashes. The Lebanese Red Cross told AFP people had been treated for breathing difficulties and fainting, along with injuries caused by stones, noting that security personnel and civilians were among those treated. Lebanese civil defense also said it took 10 people to hospital, but did not specify whether the affected were civilians or members of the security forces.
Counter-protests
Security services had already used force to disperse anti-government protesters earlier this week. The process of forming a government will take place as Lebanon faces an economic crisis. The protesters have demanded a government made up solely of experts not affiliated to the country's traditional political parties, but analysts have warned this could be a tall order. Earlier in the day, police in Beirut clashed with young people opposed to the anti-government protest movement. The afternoon clashes erupted when young counter-protesters from Khandaq al-Ghamiq, an area of the capital dominated by Hizbullah and the AMAL Movement, tried to raid a key anti-government protest camp in Martyrs' Square.
Anti-riot police intervened, firing teargas to disperse them.
The Lebanese protests have been largely peaceful but clashes have become more frequent in recent weeks, with supporters of Hizbullah and AMAL attacking protest camps in several cities amid counter-demonstrations. Both AMAL and Hizbullah are partners in Lebanon's cross-sectarian government. Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday warned that the formation of a new government could take time. Nasrallah said he would support a coalition government with "the widest possible representation" that did not exclude any of the major parties, adding that it could even be headed by outgoing premier Saad Hariri. The names of various potential candidates have been circulated in recent weeks, but the Sunni Muslim establishment on Sunday threw their support behind Hariri returning. The international community has urged a swift appointment of a cabinet to implement key economic reforms and unlock international aid. Nasrallah on Friday also urged his supporters -- and those of AMAL -- to stay calm, saying that the "anger" of some of his movement's members had gone "out of control."

Lebanese burn ruling parties’ offices after night of clashes
The Associated Press, Beirut/Sunday, 15 December 2019
Attackers in northern Lebanon set fire to the offices of two major political parties on Sunday, the state-run National News Agency said. The assaults came just hours after the capital Beirut was rocked by the most violent government crackdown on protesters since nationwide demonstrations began two months ago. Lebanese security forces fired rubber bullets, tear gas and used water cannons throughout the night to disperse anti-government protesters from the city center — the epicenter of the protest movement in Beirut — and around parliament. The overnight confrontations in Beirut left more than 130 people injured, according to the Red Cross and the Lebanese Civil Defense. In the northern Akkar district on Sunday, attackers broke the windows and torched the local office for resigned Prime Minister Saad Hariri's political party in the town of Kharibet al-Jindi. In a separate attack in Akkar district, assailants stormed the local office of the largest party in parliament, affiliated with President Michel Aoun and headed by Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil. Their party said the contents of the office in Jedidat al-Juma town had also been smashed and burned. Lebanon is facing one of its worst economic crises in decades, and the protesters accuse the ruling political class in place for three decades of mismanagement and corruption. The violence comes a day before the president is due to hold talks with different parliamentary blocs to name a new prime minister on Monday. Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan on Sunday ordered an investigation into the clashes which she said injured both protesters and security forces. She said she watched the confrontations “with concern, sadness and shock.”Al-Hassan blamed “infiltrators" for instigating the friction and called on the demonstrators to be wary of those who want to exploit their protests for political reasons. She didn't elaborate. Nationwide protests began on Oct. 17, and the government headed by Hariri resigned two weeks later. Political parties have since been bickering over the shape and form of the new Cabinet. Protesters want a technocratic government, not affiliated with established political parties. After weeks of back and forth, Hariri has emerged as the likely candidate for the job.

No Trust In Lebanon's Caretaker PM, Mr. Saad Al Hariri
Elias Bejjani/December 16/2019
Saad Al Hariri protects covertly and covertly the most corrupt officials and businessmen in what is known the Lebanese deep government.
At the same time he has no sovereign or patriotic back bone, to the extent that he has even compromised on his father's assassination (Raffic Al Hariri), and put the ongoing trial by the Special Tribunal For Lebanon (STL) on a marginal scale of his priorities.
In this realm he forged a political alliance with his father's assassins, The Hezbollah Terrorist Militia, whose the STL accused a number of  its security topnotch members to have committed the terrorist assassination in year 2005.
Mr. Hariri, in his PM, capacity has been totally serving Hezbollah's occupation of Lebanon status quo as well as the Iranian-Mullahs' expansionism schemes in exchange for staying as an MP.
Practically, Mr. Hariri is the first politician who should not be trusted any more in any official position.
He is not only one of all of the corrupt Lebanese politicians, but the first of them all.
In summary, No trust for Hariri to head the new Lebanese Government.
Hariri is not a talented or a professional politician and based on his record since 20015 he will never be one.  Meanwhile, he surrounds himself by advisers who in general serve their our businesses and lead him into un-patriotic and non-sovereign deals with the Lebanese warlords and oligarchies.
His record as PM shows that he moves disastrously from one failure to another. He is not the right PM, for dealing with serious and devastating current Lebanese crisis.

The French connection couldn’t save Lebanon
Makram Rabah/The Arab Weekly/December 15/2019
Lebanon’s lack of seriousness, its irresponsible attitude and its refusal to heed the warnings of the international community were penalised in Paris.
When the French Mandate founded “Grand Liban” — the State of Greater Lebanon — almost a century ago, it was never assumed that the small merchant republic would someday reach rock bottom.
Decades of unheeded political corruption, coupled with Beirut’s inability to maintain solid connections with its regional Arab allies, left Lebanon desperate for a lifeline from the international community, primarily France.
The International Support Group for Lebanon (ISG), led by France and the United Nations, met December 11 in Paris to discuss options to help Lebanon in its predicament.
Observers said the ISG was a first step towards Lebanon’s economic salvation because France would lead an international effort to inject much-needed funds into the Lebanese economy, which collapsing towards a total meltdown.
Time and again, French President Emmanuel Macron has shown remarkable resolve in supporting the government of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, including sponsoring the CEDRE donor conference in April 2018, which earmarked $11 billion to overhaul Lebanon’s decaying infrastructure and jump-start its ailing economy.
However, the CEDRE funds were part of a wide reform package that the Lebanese state had publicly subscribed to, which included administrative, fiscal and budgetary reform, none of which were implemented by Hariri’s cabinet, leaving the $11 billion in limbo.
Despite visits by French envoy Pierre Duquesne and his repeated urging to Lebanese officials of the importance of the reforms, the recommendations were ignored and the Hariri government failed to address key challenges, primarily reform of the electricity sector and the proper passing of the annual budget.
Lebanon’s lack of seriousness, its irresponsible attitude and its refusal to heed the warnings of the international community were penalised in Paris when the ISG convened without any serious Lebanese presence. Beirut was represented by token senior diplomats and a few Hariri advisers.
French patronage and largesse seemed to have run their course and the ISG meeting came as a cold shower to the Lebanese officials, reminding them that, practically, they lack popular legitimacy to receive financial or political bailout and that they need to listen to their own people who are demanding reform.
The ISG final statement was more or less a page from the “Lebanese revolution’s” book of demands as it “urges the Lebanese authorities to take decisive action to restore the stability and sustainability of the funding model of the financial sector, to tackle corruption and tax evasion (including adoption of an anti-corruption national strategy, the anti-corruption agency law and judicial reform and other measures to instil transparency and accountability), to reform state-owned enterprises and implement the electricity reform plan including governance-enhancing mechanism (through an independent regulatory body) and to markedly improve economic governance and the business environment, through the passing of and effectively implementing procurement laws.”
This rude awakening is different from previous warnings to the Lebanese government because there is no longer an economic safety net for the tightrope act the ruling establishment has been dangerously conducting over the years. In perhaps a reminder of the Lebanese predicament and the terrible fate that awaits the country, the ISG underscored “its commitment to Lebanon’s access to basic goods and trade facilities, as currently provided for by trade facilitation programmes, to preserve the livelihood of the population and economic resilience.”
In layman’s terms, a government that cannot ensure basic goods and food to its people is not a government that can lead reform nor does it have the trust of the international community, which will refuse to keep bankrolling a Ponzi scheme and an unlimited appetite for corruption.
It is pertinent to remember that the CEDRE conference was preceded by the Rome meeting, which demanded that the Lebanese government reclaim its sovereignty and properly address the challenge that Hezbollah poses on the country’s political and economic well-being.
The failure of the ruling establishment, as well as Lebanese at large, to jump-start this political and economic reform process is the reason the country is beyond the point of no return.
To supporters of the Iranian axis and their local Lebanese allies and cronies, Macron and the Europeans’ stance to oppose the US sanctions is their only remaining lifeline. However, just like the Iranian axis is waiting for US President Donald Trump to possibly lose office, Macron will, sooner or later, step down and what Lebanon and its Iranian allies will be left with is an international community that is beyond convinced that Lebanon’s fate is well-deserved.

Political impasse, foreign pressure give new political lease on life for Hariri
Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly/December 15/2019
Hariri could accept that Hezbollah nominates “non-provocative politicians.”
BEIRUT - While political parties in Lebanon stress the urgency of forming a government capable of gaining foreign assistance to curb Lebanon’s economic downfall, power struggles and political wrangling prevented the nomination of a prime minister to replace Saad Hariri, who resigned more than a month ago.
The latest front-runner, Samir Khatib, withdrew his name following an objection by political and spiritual leaders of the Sunni community, to which the post is allocated. The country’s top Sunni religious leader called Hariri the preferred candidate, increasing his chances to return as head of government.
Under Lebanon’s sectarian-based political system, the prime minister is a Sunni Muslim, the president a Christian Maronite and the speaker of parliament a Shia Muslim.
Parties have been haggling over the nature of the government for weeks. While Hariri called for an independent government of technocrats, his opponents — the powerful Shia Hezbollah and its allies, Shia Amal movement and Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), headed by his son-in-law and Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil — insisted on a semi-technical and semi-political administration.
Bassil announced that the FPM, which has the largest number of seats in parliament, will not take part in a cabinet led by Hariri. “Its fate (would be) definitely failure. This is not avoiding responsibility… We will form a constructive opposition,” he said.
Bassil’s comments could pave the way for a cabinet formed by Hariri, ending a deadlock that has gripped the country since Hariri’s resignation October 29.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah called for a “largely representative” government in which all parties would assume the responsibility of pulling Lebanon out of its socio-economic crisis and fulfil protesters’ demands.
“A reformist government necessitates the participation of all political powers and no party should be excised. It also does not necessarily mean a government of technocrats,” Nasrallah said, in allusion to the FPM.
He said he hopes that mandatory consultations between Aoun and parliamentary blocs, set for December 16, would result in nominating a prime minister. The consultations were postponed once before over disagreements on who to nominate.
“Until this very moment, Saad Hariri’s return is almost 99% sure,” said Rached Fayed, a politburo member of Hariri’s Future Movement party. “He has already talked to the World Bank and [International Monetary Fund] IMF chiefs to help find a solution to the present crisis. This signals that he would be willing to assume that responsibility. It also means that he may be willing to reach a compromise with the parties (Hezbollah and Amal) who want to be represented by politicians.”
“He (Hariri) might accept, for instance, to have Hezbollah nominate non-provocative politicians who are at the same time technocrats such as the (outgoing) minister of health,” Fayed said.
Political analyst Nabil Bou Monsef said he was sceptical about FPM’s decision to boycott a Hariri-led government. “I personally believe things will get more complicated. Bassil’s exit could mean a clash with the president. I have the impression that we are heading to a more complicated power struggle and settling political accounts.”
“If Hariri is nominated by Hezbollah and Amal MPs in the consultations with the president, it will show a flagrant divergence from their ally, the FPM,” Bou Monsef said.
“Even if Hariri is nominated tomorrow, the formation of the government will take much time,” he said. “I guess Hariri would make concessions to assure Amal and Hezbollah that he is not implementing an American agenda to clip their wings… The equation would be they support him to lead the government and he will accept to have them represented by a number of politicians.”
The international community is increasing pressure on Lebanon to form a credible, reform-minded government, a condition for receiving urgent aid.
“The only possible criteria (for aid) are the effectiveness of the government in implementing the reforms awaited by the population. This is the only way that the participants around this table and beyond can mobilise to give Lebanon the support it needs,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said after a meeting of the International Support Group for Lebanon in Paris on December 11.
Lebanon has been rocked by unprecedented popular protests over official mismanagement and corruption since October 17.

The coming real estate boom
Dan Azzi/Annahar/December 15/2019
The other major development will be banks offering their clients some of their repossessed or distressed properties in return for giving up their claim on their deposits.
The title of this article must surprise a lot of people who were more used to me predicting the collapse of the real estate bubble, such as in my AUB Lecture last year in which I called real estate “The Second Biggest Scam in the History of Lebanon.” People, then, were wondering what the biggest scam was, which I avoided answering. But now they know. Finally, right when they became convinced of my thesis about real estate, here I come making a U-turn.
But today, things have changed drastically. It’s pretty clear (or will be, soon enough) that the majority of deposits in banks are simply computer entries with nothing behind them, and that there’s, at best, one “real” dollar for every three “Lebanese dollars” (which I’ve been calling Monopoly money or “Lollar”). A Lollar (© 2019, All Rights Reserved) is the unit of currency in any bank account in Lebanon denominated in US dollars. The value of accounts in Lollars was generated through fake interest, with no legitimate investment on the other side that generates real cashflow backing them. Anyone who withdrew money from a bank in the good old days (a few short months ago) was effectively withdrawing someone else’s principal, just like a typical Ponzi Scheme. I’ve posited in previous articles that the only solution to this problem is to execute a surgical procedure equalizing real dollars and Lollars. This is what I’ve referred to as a haircut, which can have many different forms, but they’re all equivalent. In my next article, I will go through these different forms.
People who have come to this realization (as opposed to the ones still in denial), are trying to escape before the haircut axe drops. Some lucky ones have applied Wasta to get out. Those less lucky are selling their Monopoly money accounts for up to a 30% discount for cash or money outside the country, betting that a 30% loss now is better than a 50% (or more) loss later. This means that, effectively, a (real) US dollar now buys 1.42 Lollars, a phenomenon that was described in this article from last summer.
Others are using the few legal loopholes remaining (before they’re closed) to try to minimize their losses.
But why would a guy sell a tangible asset for Monopoly money? This would only happen if the owner were in debt (or with other liabilities), because Monopoly money can be used to pay off a Monopoly loan. A (rational) person with no debt would never sell real estate except for physical cash or funds paid outside the country. Of course, a person who believes in fairy tales, such as the selection of a new government, can somehow save the day, and that the current measures are temporary, might also accept Monopoly money.
So let’s now analyze the new supply-demand distribution in this new paradigm.
The demand for real estate comes from anyone with an account in a Lebanese bank, which totals close to $180 billion. The supply is anyone who’s in debt and owns real estate. According to an IMF report from a couple of years ago, lending to the private sector totals almost $60 billion, over one third of which is directly tied to real estate (mortgages, Iskan, and developer loans). However, according to this same report, more than 90% is collateralized by real estate (meaning a person who took a loan for a business, or his own purposes, with a lien on one of his properties). In other words, the potential supply of real estate is slightly more than $50 billion. That means that demand outstrips supply by a three to one ratio. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why you’ll see a major spike in real estate prices. However, this spike will be for sales priced in Lollars or Monopoly money. If you pay cash (Benjamin Franklins), or in an account outside Lebanon, prices will continue to drop, per my original prediction, to the extent that cash (or real dollar) prices will be less than 50% of Lollar prices.
The other major development will be banks offering their clients some of their repossessed or distressed properties in return for giving up their claim on their deposits. Be careful with this, because it might be a double-whammy; first they hijacked your money, then they’re trying to solve the problem they created for you, by pawning off their junk, overpriced portfolios that they generated with the same lack of proper credit due diligence as the Ponzi Scheme that got us where we are. Thus, you’re better off carefully shopping around for your own deal.
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A proposal to restructure Lebanon's debt
Michel Fayad/Annahar/December 15/2019
The exposure of Lebanese banks to public debt and treasury bonds is equivalent to 69% of their total assets while up to US$11.8bn in Eurobonds is estimated to be held by international market participants.
The peg between the weak local Lebanese Pound and the globally strong US Dollar is an anomaly since the US is neither the main supplier nor the main client of Lebanon. In recent months, the Lebanese Pound has weakened against the US Dollar on the black market, while the official exchange rate remains unchanged amid an increasing shortage of dollars, thus creating arbitrage opportunities.
To address the situation, the Lebanese Pound should be pegged against a basket of currencies including the US Dollar and Euro because the European Union is the main supplier and the main client of Lebanon. At a later stage, a floating exchange rate should be adopted.
The fixed rate adopted by the Central Bank of Lebanon was maintained by offering high-interest rates—paid by accumulating more debt that has been repaid by a poorer population to Lebanese banks and by banks to their depositors and to international markets.
This largest government-sponsored Ponzi scheme in history worked until the war in Syria broke out in 2011, leading to an economic slowdown in Lebanon. Since then, the Lebanese economy hasn’t expanded amid a widening twin trade and budget deficits.
Unlike Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme, which used a “split-strike option strategy” based on lies that affected a few hundred rich investors, Lebanon’s version of the scheme is having an impact on all of its population.
Nasser Saidi, a former BDL vice-governor (from 1993 to 2003) and former industry, economy and trade minister (1998-2000), described BDL’s financial engineering as a “Ponzi scheme” that relies on fresh borrowing to pay back the existing debt.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of The Black Swan, shared that view. In response, the legal department of the Central Bank of Lebanon said its operations were in conformity with the law as set out in the 1963 Code of Money and Credit.
Alain Bifani, the Director-General of Lebanon’s Ministry of Finance, was quoted in a Wikileaks document which dates back to 2007 as saying that Central Bank Governor Riad "Salameh has been hiding the deficit in BDL’s books by settling high-interest MOF debt and reissuing lower interest debt in the BDL’s portfolio."
Thus, a change of the BDL’s policy is required since Lebanon can no longer survive under the current rentier economic model that favors the real estate and financial services sectors at the expense of productive sectors. Lebanon must also abolish exclusive agencies and monopolies and adopt a real capitalist economy (économie libérale) that should be regulated to reduce poverty.
But first, the country's debt must be restructured.
The total 2019 debt of Lebanon is estimated at US$88.4bn (154.5% of GDP), with domestic-currency debt at US$55.1bn (96.3% of GDP) and foreign-currency debt at US$33.3bn (58.1% of GDP).
The exposure of Lebanese banks to public debt and treasury bonds is equivalent to 69% of their total assets while up to US$11.8bn in Eurobonds is estimated to be held by international market participants.
According to Refinitiv data, around two-thirds of Lebanon’s foreign debt is estimated to be held by local banks, while the remainder is held by international market participants, such as Amundi, Invesco, JPMorgan, AllianceBernstein and Fidelity.
Lebanon government debt as of 2Q 2019 (Eurobond data adjusted to reflect latest figures). Source: BdL, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Levels include accrued interests. All data as of June 2019, although BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research has adjusted Eurobonds data to reflect the most recent figures. % of GDP based on 2019F GDP. Other debt reflects special T-bills in foreign currency (expropriation and contractor bonds). Public sector deposits are mostly LL-denominated.
Lebanon government debt as of 2Q 2019 (Eurobond data adjusted to reflect latest figures). Source: BdL, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Levels include accrued interests. All data are from June 2019, although BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research has adjusted Eurobonds data to reflect the most recent figures. % of GDP based on 2019F GDP. Other debt reflects special T-bills in foreign currency (expropriation and contractor bonds). Public sector deposits are mostly LL-denominated.
In 1967, the Lebanese Parliament passed the “Intra Law,” which set down new rules and procedures in the event of bank failures in order to prevent outright bankruptcy and liquidation. Indeed, in 1966, Intra Bank was forced to suspend payments in the wake of a run on the bank that depleted its cash reserves. Intra had only a few large depositors, limited cash reserves and long-term investments in property. This law allowed the restructuring of Intra rather than its pure liquidation: the deposit obligations were replaced with shares in a new financial institution, Intra Investment Company.
A similar law could be drafted in order to restructure the debt of Lebanon. The debt held by banks must be swapped with shares of a newly established sovereign fund that comprises:
- Middle East Airlines (MEA);
- Touch and Alfa (the two mobile operators);
- Casino du Liban;
- 20% of the future oil & gas revenues of the two blocs awarded for exploration to Total, ENI, and Novatek;
- Electricity & Water management.
75% of deposits above $1 million would be converted to equity in these banks.
The new sovereign fund and all Alpha Banks could then be listed on international stock markets including New York, London, Frankfurt, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Singapore stock exchanges (even if they have to start by secondary markets)
*Michel Fayad is a civil society activist and financial analyst with experience in policy making, global strategy, and business development. He graduated from HEC Paris School of Management, the London School of Economics & Political Science and NYU Stern School of Business.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 15-16/2019
US Warns Iran of ‘Decisive’ Response to its Proxy Attacks in Iraq
Baghdad – Hamza Mustafa/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 15 December, 2019
The US Embassy in Iraq on Saturday accused Iran's proxies of carrying out attacks on Iraqi military bases where US troops are stationed.
A statement by the embassy on its Facebook page recalled several attacks on military bases in Iraq, and warned "Iran's leaders that any attacks by them, or their proxies of any identity, that harm Americans, our allies, or our interests will be answered with a decisive US response.""Iran must respect the sovereignty of its neighbors and immediately cease its provision of lethal aid and support to third parties in Iraq and throughout the region," the statement said. Several Iraqi military bases with US forces were attacked recently by rockets and mortar rounds by unidentified militant groups in the provinces of Salaheddine, Anbar and at the perimeter of Baghdad International Airport. No casualties among US troops were reported. Over 5,000 US troops have been deployed in Iraq to support the Iraqi forces in the battle against ISIS militants, mainly providing training and advising to the Iraqi forces. The troops are part of the US-led international coalition that has been conducting air raids against ISIS targets in both Iraq and Syria. Similarly, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Iran for the spate of rocket attacks against Iraqi bases where American troops are located and warned the Trump administration would respond forcefully if US or allied forces were injured or killed. “Iran’s proxies have recently conducted several attacks against bases where Iraqi Security Forces are co-located with US and International Coalition personnel,” Pompeo said in a statement. Any attacks by Iran or its proxies “that harm Americans, our allies or our interests will be answered with a decisive US response,” Pompeo added. Iraqi national security expert Hussein Allawi told Asharq Al-Awsat that “the Americans see recent turmoil in Iraq as an internal crisis and that is the position of the US State Department, but rocket attacks are another matter.”These attacks, according to Allawi, have resulted in the US hinting to imposing economic sanctions against Iraqi figures and entities close to Iran. He added that there could be other responses.

Israel Threatens Iran with ‘Own Vietnam in Syria’
Tel Aviv, London – Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 15 December, 2019
Israel has ramped up attacks on Iranian sites in eastern Syria while Tel Aviv vowed turning Syria into a Vietnam for Iran and to drain Tehran's forces there. Israel's defense minister warned Iran against its continued presence in Syria, saying Israel will "work tirelessly" to prevent the establishment of a stable Iranian military presence in the war-torn country. "It is no secret that Iran is trying to establish a ring of fire around our country, it is already based in Lebanon and is trying to establish in Syria, Gaza and more," Naftali Bennett said last week. "We need to move from containment to attack.""We say to Iran: Syria will become your Vietnam," Bennett added. Israeli intelligence site Debka stated that Bennett's threats coincided with four attacks that targeted a military complex built by Iranian proxies within a week. More so, five Iran proxy fighters were killed in overnight raids in eastern Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, last Sunday. The strikes late Saturday targeted "positions of Iranian forces and allied militias" on the edge of the town of Albukamal, the UK-based monitor said, as quoted by AFP. “Five non-Syrian fighters were killed,” Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP, without being able to provide their nationalities.

Hamas Presses Abbas to Issue Elections Decree
Ramallah - Kifah Zboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 15 December, 2019
Celebrating the 32nd anniversary of its founding, Hamas said it was ready for Palestinian elections, reconciliation and ending divisions with the Palestinian Authorities in the West Bank. The Hamas leadership announced at a large public rally in the central Gaza Strip that it had finished forming the preparatory committee for the elections and was ready to participate immediately. Other than expressing initiative to partake in upcoming elections, the group has been exerting heavy media pressure on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to issue the election decree. “We are pushing for Palestinian reunification, and we have made dozens of concessions for the sake of the country and for our people to complete reconciliation. And they are ready to appeal to the Palestinian street through the general elections,” said Hamas official Osama Al-Muzaini. He also stressed the need to reconcile and end all divisions.
Member of the Hamas political bureau, Hussam Badran said that the group has reacted positively to Abbas’ invite to elections. In a broadcast statement, Badran further pressured the PA head to issue an election decree. He pointed out that there is a general Palestinian position that desires “guarantees for the freedom of elections and for the recognition of results.”Separately, PA security forces arrested dozens of Hamas supporters in the West Bank in the past few days. At least 66 Hamas supporters have been arrested or summoned for interrogation by PA security forces in recent days, according to Hamas spokesman Abdel Rahman Shadid. Even though Hamas has welcomed Abbas’s initiative, saying it was planning to participate in the upcoming elections Shadid said that the PA campaign against Hamas supporters does not bode well for the prospects of holding a free and fair vote. Hamas official Hazem Qassem said the crackdown was “a continuation of the Palestinian Authority’s delusion that it can uproot the presence of Hamas in the West Bank.” He urged the PA to halt “this national and moral crime, and create the appropriate atmosphere for free and fair elections.”

Iraq’s Sadr Closes his Movement’s Institutions for a Year
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 15 December, 2019
In a surprise move, Iraqi Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr closed his Facebook account, writing "goodbye" on a black background on the social media site. Not only that, but the political leader decided to close institutions associated with his political movement for a year. According to Sadr’s office, the decision will not affect the shrine of Saeed Said Mohammed Sadr and his sons, private offices, or the Saraya al-Salam brigades. Sadr decided to “close all institutions affiliated with the Honorable Sadrist line for a whole year,” a statement released by the office read. Sadr has been active on social media where he often commented on developments on the ground or in politics. The closure follows intense discussions over the naming of a new prime minister. The cleric had voiced his rejection of all candidates. Sadr’s move followed an assassination attempt which targeted the son of Judge Jaafar Al-Mousawi, a spokesman for the cleric. The Sadrist movement and its Sairoon block did not comment on the incident. Iraq has been rocked by mass protests since early October over poor living conditions and corruption, forcing Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi to resign. According to Iraq's High Commission for Human Rights, at least 460 Iraqis have been killed and 17,000 have been injured since the protests began Oct. 1. A figure close to Sadr said that Iraq was now at a crossroads where the revolution could succeed, or continue without a leadership and clear goals, or fail and see corrupt officials remain in power. Each of these three scenarios has its own repercussions.

Saudi Crown Prince Receives Pakistani PM in Riyadh
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 15 December, 2019
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, received in Riyadh on Saturday Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. The two leaders discussed bilateral cooperation and the latest regional and international developments.The meeting was attended by Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah, Minister of State, Cabinet's Member and Advisor to National Security Dr. Musaed bin Mohammed Al-Aiban and Chief of General Intelligence, Khalid Al-Humaidan.

Sisi Inaugurates World Youth Forum, Calls for Ending ‘Discrimination’
Sharm El-Sheikh – Maohmmed Nabil Helmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 15 December, 2019
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi launched Saturday the third edition of the World Youth Forum (WYF) in Sharm El-Sheikh. Sisi called for ending discrimination based on religion, gender and race, saying the forum is a message of peace that is founded on constructive dialogue and the need to build a world of stability and amity. Guests at the event included Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Prince Khalid al-Faisal, Advisor to Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and Governor of Makkah Region, and Speaker of the Libyan parliament, Aguila Saleh. Speakers at the launch included Director General of United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) Li Young. In a recorded statement, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres addressed youths saying: “We want your meaningful participation” at the forum. Around 7,000 individuals are taking part in the forum, which concludes on Tuesday. They will attend 24 sessions and 14 workshops. Panel discussions will tackle climate change, food security in Africa, sustainable development in the continent, terrorism and armed conflicts and cooperation and coordination among the Mediterranean states.Ahead of the inauguration, Sisi paid a visit to the King Salman International University’s branch in Sharm El-Sheikh. A statement by presidency spokesperson Bassam Rady said Sisi was briefed on the facilities of the university, which is lies on an area of about 35 acres. Construction at the site began in July 2017 and is expected to be complete in March 2020.

Libyan Embassy in Egypt Closes Indefinitely
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 15 December, 2019
The Libyan embassy in Egypt announced on Saturday that it was closing its doors indefinitely starting Sunday. It cited “security reasons” for the closure, read a statement on its official Facebook page. Work at the embassy will be suspended until further notice, it said without elaborating.

Qatar Pledges Security, Economic Support to Libya’s GNA
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 15 December, 2019
Libya’s Government of National Accord announced on Sunday that Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad had expressed Doha’s readiness to provide it with any support needed in the economic and security fields. GNA chief Fayez al-Sarraj was in Doha where he met with the Qatari ruler. Qatar will double its efforts to help Libya overcome its crisis, read a GNA statement. Discussions between Sarraj and Sheikh Tamim also tackled the upcoming international conference on Libya set for Berlin. They agreed on the need to invite concerned countries to the event without exception. No date has been specified yet for the conference. On Saturday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the GNA had not made a request to Ankara for sending troops to support it against the forces of the Libya National Army that are advancing on Tripoli. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had earlier this month declared that Ankara was prepared to send troops to Libya to support the GNA should Sarraj request it.

Kuwait Arrests Muslim Brotherhood Member Arriving from Turkey
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 15 December, 2019
Authorities in Kuwait arrested a prominent Muslim Brotherhood member upon his arrival in the country from Turkey, reported al-Rai newspaper. It identified him as Islam A., a dentist who works in Kuwait. Authorities deported him to Egypt after carrying out the necessary investigations with him. The detainee had previously worked at a Sohag hospital in Egypt and had connections with members of a detained Brotherhood cell that was busted by Kuwait. The cell had been previously deported to Egypt in line with a security agreement with Kuwait. Al-Rai said the latest detainee had resided in Turkey for four months before returning to Kuwait where he was seeking to complete travel documents. He confessed during investigations with Kuwaiti authorities to his ties with the busted cell. He also confessed to providing financial support to Brotherhood members in Egypt. Sources revealed that he enjoys close relations with one of the suspects behind acts of violence in Egypt, including arson against churches.

Britain's Johnson Vows to Repay Trust of Opposition Voters
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 15/2019
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has vowed to repay the trust of former opposition voters who gave his Conservatives a mandate to take Britain out of the European Union next month. Johnson toured a leftist bastion once represented by former Labor leader Tony Blair in a bid to show his intent to unite the country after years of divisions over Brexit. The northeastern region fell to the Tories in a general election Thursday that turned into a re-run of the 2016 EU membership referendum in which Johnson championed the Brexit cause. Johnson told cheering campaigners that he understood how difficult it was for traditional Labor voters to switch sides and back his right-wing government. "I can imagine people's pencils hovering over the ballot paper and wavering before coming down for us and the Conservatives," he said. "And I want the people of the northeast to know that we in the Conservative party -- and I -- will repay your trust."The working class north of England dropped its longstanding support for Labor and relegated the century-old party to its worst finish since before World War II. Johnson now commands an 80-vote majority in the 650-seat House of Commons -- a margin last enjoyed by the late Tory icon Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s. The lead assures Johnson safe passage of his divorce deal with the European Union when he re-submits it to parliament next week. This would pave the way for Britain's formal withdrawal from the other 27 EU nations by the January 31 deadline set by Brussels. The sides would then set off on the tricky task of trying to reach a brand new comprehensive trade agreement by the end of 2020. Failure to meet that deadline -- which Johnson has repeatedly promised not to extend -- would have unknown repercussions for global markets and economic growth. But Johnson said his government's main focus after the first stage of Brexit was completed would be on bread-and-butter issues important to Labor voters. "It is getting Brexit done but it is also delivering on our National Health Service, our education, safer streets, better hospitals, a better future for our country," he said."We are going to recover our national self-confidence, our mojo, our self-belief."
'We've lost'
The snap general election redrew the political map of Britain and left Brexit opponents in disarray. "Frankly, it's pie in the sky to keep talking about fighting on," pro-EU campaigner Michael Heseltine -- a prominent former Tory cabinet member who is now a peer in the House of Lords -- told Sky News. "We've lost. We have to face up to that." Labour's campaign was dogged by voter doubts about its vague position on Brexit and allegations of anti-Semitism within the party's senior ranks. Polls showed a part of the problem also rested with Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn -- a veteran socialist who suffered from historically low approval ratings for much of the past year. Corbyn promised to step down after a period of "reflection" about the party's course. One of Corbyn's most trusted allies, John McDonnell, said on Saturday he was also quitting -- and that it may be time for the entire leadership team to clear out. "I won't be part of the shadow cabinet. I've done my bit," Labor finance spokesman McDonnell told the BBC. "We need to move on." Several potential leadership candidates accused Corbyn of stripping Labor of its political appeal. "Labor has become the nasty party," lawmaker Margaret Hodge said. "I am one of the victims of that with the anti-Semitism."

U.S., China Mini-Deal Offers 'Breathing Space' for Chinese Economy
Agencies/December 15/2019
A truce in the U.S.-China trade war offers Xi Jinping breathing space as he faces a slowing economy and political trouble in Hong Kong, but experts warn 2020 will be another tough year for the Chinese president. The pared-down "phase one" deal announced Friday includes a reduction in U.S. tariffs on China, in exchange for an increase in Chinese purchases of U.S. goods and better protections for intellectual property. But tussles over the most controversial Chinese trade practices -- including steep state subsidies -- have been left to future talks. The trade war launched nearly two years ago by President Donald Trump isn't over, analysts say, as there's always the risk of Beijing not upholding its end of the bargain and the mercurial US leader throwing more tariff bombs. The mini-deal is a "delay tactic to buy the Chinese Communist Party breathing space and allow it to stay in the game against overwhelming odds," said Larry Ong, senior analyst with risk consultancy SinoInsider. Growth of the Chinese economy slowed to six percent in the third quarter -- its most sluggish rate in nearly three decades -- as demand for exports cooled and Chinese consumers tightened their belts. In November exports fell 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the fourth straight fall, and exports to the U.S. nosedived 23 percent as the trade war disrupted supply chains and left investors on edge. Trump has cancelled a new round of tariffs that had been due to kick in on Sunday and would have affected smartphones, toys and laptops among other goods, while Beijing also called off levies planned in retaliation.In another major concession, Washington will also slash in half the 15-percent tariffs imposed on $120 billion in Chinese goods, like clothing, that were imposed on September 1. However, this "unexpected" tariff rollback will only have a "marginal" impact on China's economy, said Lu Ting of Nomura bank."The worst is not yet over and 2020 looks set to be yet another tough year."
'Different interpretations'
On the political front, Washington's decision to back the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong and to criticize China's mass detention of mostly Muslim minorities has cast a shadow over trade negotiations. Xi has faced six months of increasingly violent demonstrations in Hong Kong, while on the other side of the world Trump is facing a congressional vote on impeachment for abuse of office next week. And with Trump's 2020 reelection campaign gathering pace, he needs to show voters that his habit of starting bruising trade wars is bearing fruit. Barry Naughton, an expert on China's economy at the University of California in San Diego, said the mini-deal -- which caused US stocks to whipsaw -- may have been announced too soon. "People worry that both sides were under so much time pressure to conclude something before Sunday, that they may have once again prematurely announced an agreement," he told AFP.
US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said he expected the deal to be signed in early January, taking effect 30 days later. US officials also said China has promised to import $200 billion worth of US goods -- including farm produce, energy and services -- over the next two years, but China declined to offer any details. "Different interpretations of what has been agreed upon are potential obstacles to completing the deal," Lu from Nomura said.Trump said existing tariffs of 25 percent on $250 billion of Chinese imports would stay in place pending further negotiations on a second-phase deal. Although he tweeted Friday that talks will start "immediately", the Chinese side are treading more cautiously.Starting talk on the next phase "will depend on the implementation of the phase one agreement", China's deputy finance minister Liao Min said."I expect things will grind to a halt," said Naughton. "China has no more it is willing to give. The US will slip into wait-and-see mode, monitoring Chinese compliance." Ong from Sinoinsider said the CCP is notorious for not living up to its promises and warned factional struggles among the party will make it harder to meet China's "phase one" deal commitments. "We can expect President Trump to become a 'Tariff Man' again once China is found to have lapsed."

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 15-16/2019
Seven Ways Economics Can Heal Itself
Noah Smith/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 15/2019
Economics changed a lot in the 2010s, mostly in good and healthy ways. But much remains to be done in terms of the discipline's public image, the reliability of its methods and the success of its policy recommendations. Here are a few ways that economics should strive to change itself in the 2020s:
No. 1. Reform Economics Education
Economic research has become much more empirical, but the material that gets taught to undergraduate students generally hasn’t kept up. For example, new evidence on minimum wages and other policies has shown that the basic theory of supply and demand that's taught in introductory econ courses isn’t a good description of labor markets. And some leading textbooks give economics a libertarian slant that often is at odds with reality. Meanwhile, students often learn little or no empirical analysis, meaning that they aren’t capable of testing the theories they learn. Some progress is being made, such as the creation of the CORE Project, a free set of textbooks and other learning materials that emphasizes grounding in data. But for economics education to improve, educators need to adopt these new tools and methods.
No. 2. Make Econ Culture Less Aggressive
In recent years, some economists have begun to complain about a culture of hostile criticism that pervades many seminar rooms, paper reviews and academic departments. A culture where ideas are shouted down tends to keep women and underrepresented minorities out of the profession. It also leads to group-think; if the strength of a theory is determined not by who can explain the evidence but by who can get the meanest gang to shout the loudest, bad theories will be enshrined and good ones dismissed. To become more like a science, econ needs to become less like a high school debate club.
No. 3. Fix the Publication System
Economics publishing is dominated by a handful of journals that can play an outsize role in determining an academic economist’s career. This allows a small group of editors to control the direction of the profession, creating a hierarchical, personalistic system where knowing the right people can be as important as having good ideas and important results. These journals also tend to limit the number of articles they publish, in order to maintain their prestige, consigning lots of good research to obscurity and making the publication process drag on too long. Economics departments need to focus less on the top five journals and use more holistic methods for determining promotion and tenure.
No. 4. Improve Macroeconomics
The failure to warn of the financial crisis, and the fierce battles waged over how to remedy the ensuing recession, tarnished macroeconomics. Macroeconomists hastily made some fixes to their models in the aftermath of that debacle and there have been some additions of more realistic elements. But even these efforts will fall short if the field doesn’t adopt more empiricist approaches. Instead of simply checking that their theories match the broad patterns of unemployment and growth, macroeconomists need to start checking each individual piece of their models against carefully collected data. If a part of a model doesn’t fit the evidence, chuck it out.
No. 5. Find Out Why Workers Don’t Adjust
Economists used to assume that workers would adapt to big economic shocks, such as the decline of regions and industries, competition from abroad and so on. But evidence in recent years has suggested that most workers displaced by Chinese imports in the 2000s took big, permanent hits to their careers. And a decline in mobility means that Americans are moving to opportunities much less than they used to. So far, government retraining programs have been largely ineffectual. Economists need to focus more resources on the question of why workers adjust so poorly and how to help them get back on their feet.
No. 6. Reconsider Welfare Programs
Widening inequality, slow labor market adjustment and the persistence of poverty have brought greater calls for redistribution. New evidence suggests that programs such as basic income are less harmful than believed, while programs that push people to get jobs may be less important. Meanwhile, a big open question is whether targeted benefits such as child-care subsidies and housing vouchers have a place in a welfare state, or whether the poor should simply be given cash to spend as they choose. The question of how to design an efficient, fair, sustainable welfare state for the 21st century deserves lots of attention from economists.
No. 7. Study Comparative Economic Systems More
Economists tend to overlook comparative economic systems these days; it’s often assumed that the failures of communism proved that a free market, with some sort of redistributive welfare spending, is the optimal and final system. But the rise of information technology, the shift to service industries, the resurgent popularity of industrial policy and the increasing importance of sustainability mean that economic systems now differ in meaningful ways. At the same time, the old dichotomy between capitalism and socialism is increasingly useless for describing how modern systems work. Economists need to return to their roots and study the strengths and weaknesses of the very different systems being pioneered in China, Europe and elsewhere.

Brussels Prepares for its Next Brexit Punch-up
Lionel Laurent/Bloomberg/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 15/2019
After a year of gridlock in Westminster that has frustrated the UK’s attempts to leave the European Union on amicable terms, British voters have handed Boris Johnson a thumping majority to do just that. They might also be handing Brussels a tough new competitor on Europe’s doorstep.
This is sobering for the EU, which is on course to lose an important economic and defense partner worth 14% of the bloc’s gross domestic product. It could have been much worse, of course: A messy “no-deal” Brexit has been averted, the remaining 27 members have stayed united and key negotiating objectives have been achieved: including the UK meeting its financial obligations, guaranteeing EU citizens’ rights and avoiding a hard Irish border.
Any relief is likely to be short-lived, however. The EU has to rebuild its relationship with a neighbor that hosts Europe’s No. 1 financial services hub, accounts for 40% of its military power and does about 640 billion pounds ($853 billion) of yearly trade with the bloc. The easy part is getting the Brits out of the door; the hard part is deciding how far to let them back in. If it were up to Johnson, this would be simple. He is championing a bespoke EU trade deal, which he reckons can be signed in 11 months and which he says would ensure minimal disruption. It wouldn’t completely offset the financial impact of leaving the bloc: The UK in a Changing Europe think tank estimates a 1.1% to 2.6% hit to GDP. But it’s better than no deal whatsoever.
Unfortunately for the Gung-ho Johnson, the EU is a cautious beast by nature. Over the past three years, the Brexiters have regularly trumpeted their preferred kind of economic model: A rollback of EU rules that they see as costly and unnecessary, a new US trade deal that would give President Donald Trump a deregulating foothold in Europe and a low-tax regime that some describe as “Singapore-on-Thames.” Does anyone really expect the EU to give preferential market access to a tax haven on its border?
That’s why the warm wishes for Johnson from the EU’s leaders carried a subtle sting. “We will negotiate a future trade deal which ensures a true level playing field,” tweeted the new EU Council President Charles Michel. What this level playing field means exactly isn’t set in stone, but the EU will make sure that access to its market is tied to accepting its rules.
Zero tariffs and zero quotas between the soon-to-be-former partners are entirely possible, but they would only come with zero dumping, says the EU’s Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier. Brussels won’t open up to the City of London without making sure it abides by the same rules as Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin.
It’s unlikely that these talks will be easy. There’s no telling what negotiating persona Johnson will choose. Optimists believe his solid majority will soften his approach; he won’t be so beholden to Brexit hardliners in his parliamentary party and he’ll need to safeguard the interests of the blue-collar voters that he seduced away from Labor (rather than just keeping rule-hating hedge funds sweet).
Still, Johnson’s strong mandate to “get Brexit done” may encourage him to play hardball. Trump, who has slapped the EU with trade tariffs, is on his side. France’s Emmanuel Macron is keen to bolster bilateral relations with the UK — to protect French fisheries and harness Britain’s military might. Angela Merkel, a lame duck in German politics, may want to avoid a standoff that threatens her country’s faltering economy.
It would be folly, however, to believe that the EU will move far from the painstaking, legalistic approach that has served it pretty well since the Brexit vote in 2016 — as evidenced by Johnson’s painful concessions in the withdrawal agreement. As ever, the defining purpose of Brussels will be to defend the single market and the rules that govern it. That doesn't preclude a productive UK relationship, but it does cast doubt on a trade deal signed in 11 months giving Brexiters the buccaneering free-trading future of their dreams.
Johnson showed with his brutal casting aside of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party that he’s happy to change course when necessary. No one should be surprised if he does so again.

Despots of the Square-Kilometer Empires
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 15/2019
In a recent speech in Tehran Ayatollah Golpayegani, Chief of Staff of “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei claimed that his boss had reached a position from which he not only led the Muslim world but also dictated to infidel powers, now in retreat.
Critics of the ayatollah might dismiss that as hyperbole beyond limits, flattery being the bane of many Middle Eastern cultures.
What if Golpayegani believes what he says?
That cannot be dismissed, especially as a chorus of flatterers isolates Khamenei from the harsh realities of life.
Self-styled philosophers claim that Khamenei is the greatest philosopher since Aristotle or, not to ruffle Muslim feathers, since Ibn Sina. Versifiers praise Khamenei as the greatest Persian poet since Sa’adi or Hafez, although only a few courtesans have heard his compositions.
The “Supreme Guide” is supposed to be excellent in everything.
He has written on Islamic cuisine, the methodology of successful marriage, the destruction of Israel, the reform of human sciences, a new Islamic civilization to replace the old one that has decayed, and, as an afterthought, radical re-ordering of global order.
History is full of examples of leaders who, prisoners in a cocoon, dream of ruling the world.
Persian literature has many examples of dime-for-a-line poets composing panegyrics for dwarfish potentates lording it over a remote backwater but thinking of themselves as new Cyrus or Alexander.
In most cases, the leader who is isolated from reality falls victim to a political form of autism or, worse still, total alienation. Unable to maintain normal contact with society, notably by traveling and meeting different sorts of people, the alienated leader loses the sense of discernment between the real world and the imaginary universe invented by his entourage.
The late Majid Davami, one of the editors who trained me as a journalist, referred to such leaders as “emperors of a prayer rug”, that is to say dictators whose real writ does not run beyond a tiny carpet even if woven of silk and gold.
Half a century later, and taking into account that we have lived in an age of inflation, I suggest we extend that metaphoric prayer rug to give the rulers in question a larger space, say one square kilometer, which is closer to reality than one might think.
Where did Abbasid Caliphs spend most of their lives, before being assassinated by Mongol bodyguards, when Baghdad, was the center of the world? In a single square kilometer that is nowadays cut in half by Abu Nuwas Avenue (Shar’e Abu-Nuwas). Because things do not change as much as we think or hope, the new Iraqi ruling elite is confined to the “Green Zone” a stone’s throw away.
The Akhund of Swat, the 19th century mullah who declared Jihad on the British Raj in what is now Pakistan, lived in a cave surrounded by a garden, no more than one square kilometer.
More recently, we had Josef Stalin who, at the height of his power, hardly set foot out of the Kremlin and Adolf Hitler who had one square kilometer in Berlin and another in Berchtesgaden.
Rafael Trujillo, the Dominican Republic’s dictator in the 1950s decided to beautify his one-square kilometer palace-prison in Santo Domingo with a giant lighthouse that consumed half of the island’s electricity. As bad luck struck, Trujillo became blind when the lighthouse was completed. So, he spent the rest of his life imagining the light that his toy shed on the Caribbean.
Haiti’s dictator, Francois Duvalier, alias Papa-Doc, left his one-square kilometer only once, to bury his favorite dog in Port-au-Prince’s central park. Over the years, as a journalist, I met a number of one-square kilometer “emperors” who, as the French say, belched bigger than their mouths.
Muammar Gaddafi lived in a cage in Tripoli. I was shocked to hear that he had not had time, or courage, to visit Benghazi in years.
I interviewed the Sudanese despot Jaafar Nimeiri in his “square-kilometer” universe. Pacing in his salon, waiting to be received, the curtain on one of the bay windows caught fire causing his bodyguards to panic and run out.
Iraqi despot Saddam Hussein, too, was confined in his square-kilometer patch whenever we met before he decided to invade Iran.
As for General Muhammad Siad Barre, the Somali dictator, I am not sure that he even had a full square kilometer. I met him in Mogadishu’s central barrack at 3:00 am because he feared that if he went to his palace, soldiers might stage a coup against him.
I had a surrealistic dinner with the Congolese dictator, Denis Sassou N’guesso, in his capital Brazzaville that had been turned into piles of rubble in a four-month civil war against rivals. He suggested that I visit the beauties of his city, unaware that nothing but ugliness was left.
In the 1970s, on a first visit to Beijing, I was not granted an interview with Mao Zedong because he was be “too busy”.
In the 1980s, on two occasions when we met Robert Mugabe he expressed hope to leave his square-kilometer patch in Harare, for a visit to Bulawayo that had never submitted to his domination. As far as we know, he never did.
I doubt if any of the last Soviet dictators, including Leonid Brezhnev whom we met, ever left the square-kilometer confine. Brezhnev had palaces, euphemistically called “villa” in all the capitals of the 14 Soviet republics outside Moscow. But, people told us he had never visited any of them.
Yuri Andropov’s patch was even smaller, the size of a bed where he was attached to a dialysis machine for his kidneys.
Today, Syrian regime head Bashar Assad is confined to his square-kilometer close to Damascus with no chance of ever roaming in other parts of the war-torn country. General Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian master of PR, claims he prevented Assad from fleeing because Khamenei ordered him to stay put which, in practice, means the Syrian became a prisoner like Khamenei.
Today, Yemeni Houthis are boxed in their “empire” in the old Ottoman quarter of Sanaa.
In autobiographical notes, Khamenei waxes lyrical about the joys of visiting Shiite “holy” shrines in Iraq. Today, he dares not set foot in an Iraq shaken by uprisings against his ideology. Worse still, fearful of visiting even Mash’had, Iran’s own “holy” city, he has to be content with a hussainiyah he built near a “villa” confiscated by the revolution.

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán: Europe's Solitary Defender of Persecuted Christians
Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/December 15/2019
"Those we are helping now can give us the greatest help in saving Europe. We are giving persecuted Christians what they need: homes, hospitals, and schools, and we receive in return what Europe needs most: a Christian faith, love and perseverance". — Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Daily News Hungary, November 28, 2019.
"Our estimation is that more than 90 percent of Christian have already left Iraq and almost 50 percent of Christians in Syria have left the country". — Ignatius Aphrem II, Patriarch of the Syrian Orthodox Church.
European leaders, rather than being embarrassed, should make the condition of Christians under Islam the starting point of their conversations with Muslims.
"The fate of Eastern Christians and other minorities is the prelude to our own fate." — Former French Prime Minister François Fillon, Valeurs Actuelles, December 12, 2019.
In Europe, there is a solitary defender of persecuted Christians: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whom the mainstream media love to attack. No other European government has invested so much money, public diplomacy and time on this topic. (Photo by Laszlo Balogh/Getty Images)
"There is an ongoing persecution of Christians. For months, we bishops have been denouncing what is happening in Burkina Faso" Bishop Kjustin Kientega recently said, "but nobody is listening to us." "Evidently", he concluded, "the West is more concerned with protecting its own interests".
In a recent series of a transnational tragedies, 14 Christians were murdered in an attack on a church in Burkina Faso, 11 Christians were murdered in an attack on a bus in Kenya and seven Christians were murdered by Boko Haram in Cameroon. These three deadly attacks by Islamists in the same week give an idea of the intensity and frequency of global anti-Christian persecution.
Bishop Kientega was reporting a fact: the West is not listening to their plight. "While the Belgian government decided in 2011 to send F-16s to Libya to protect civilians threatened by Gaddafi, in 2014 it took no concrete measures to help the minorities in Iraq", wrote Le Vif.
"Today, it is a deafening silence that prevails in the spans of our parliaments, as in associative or academic circles. Why this reluctance which borders on the outright abandonment of populations in distress?"
While Christians in Syria and Iraq were suffering the violence of radical Islamists in 2014, a group of French parliamentarians had summoned France to show solidarity with those Christians. But in front of the Palais Bourbon in Paris, only 200-300 protesters showed up -- with the slogan "Today the East, tomorrow the West". Christian leaders also denounced the British government for failing to help persecuted Christians. "This sad indifference raises the question of our ability to believe in our humanistic values", wrote the French journalist Christian Makarian. Europe's indifference to the fate of Eastern Christians does not come from far away; it is the powerful result of inertia and indifference, a malaise that is devouring the continent. It is a cynical betrayal, and the greatest signal of how numb liberal democracies have gotten.
In Europe, however, there is a solitary defender of persecuted Christians: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whom the mainstream media love to peck at and attack. No other European government has invested so much money, public diplomacy and time on this topic. Writing in Foreign Policy, Peter Feaver and Will Inboden explain that aid to Christians come from "a few international relief organizations like the Knights of Columbus and Aid to the Church in Need, and the Hungarian government". The Knights of Columbus alone raised $2 million to rebuild the Christian Iraqi town of Karamlesh.
"Those we are helping now can give us the greatest help in saving Europe," Orbán recently said at an international conference, On Christian Persecution 2019, that he organized in Budapest. "We are giving persecuted Christians what they need: homes, hospitals, and schools, and we receive in return what Europe needs most: a Christian faith, love and perseverance". "Europe is quiet," Orbán went on. "A mysterious force shuts the mouths of European politicians and cripples their arms." He said the issue of Christian persecution could only be considered a human rights issue in Europe. He insisted that "Christians are not allowed to be mentioned on their own, only together with other groups that are being persecuted for their faiths." The persecution of Christians "is therefore folded into the diverse family of persecuted religious groups".
According to Tristan Azbej, Hungary's State Secretary for the Aid to Persecuted Christians, Orbán's is the first European government to have a special State Secretariat "which has only one duty: To look after and monitor the destiny and the situation of the Christian communities all over the world, and if there is a need, we help."
"... So far, we have spent 36.5 MUSD on strengthening the Christian communities, where they live. This is because of our basic approach [is] that we do not want to have...the members of the Christian communities leave their homes, but enable them to stay and be stronger there. Our principle is to bring help where it is needed, and not bring problems where there are no problems, yet at least. In this framework we have rebuilt houses for 1200 Christian families in Iraq to enable them to return. We are building schools for the Christians in the Middle East with the Caldean Church and the Syrian Orthodox Church. We cover the medical costs of Christian hospitals, three of them in Syria; we are just now reconstructing 33 Christian churches in Lebanon and we are carrying out a comprehensive development and construction program on the Nineveh Plains".
Hungary's leadership is bringing the plight of persecuted Christians to the attention of an apathetic Europe. "We have 245 million reasons to be here. This is how many people are persecuted daily because of their Christian belief," said Azbej on November 26 as he opened the International Conference on Christian Persecution in Budapest.
Many Christian leaders were present, including the Patriarch of the Syriac Orthodox Church of Antioch Ignatius Aphrem II, the Chaldean Catholic Archbishop of Mosul Najeeb Michaeel and Rev. Joseph Kassab, head of the Evangelical Community of Syria and Lebanon. Catholic speakers also attended the conference. They included Cardinal Peter Erdo, Primate of Hungary and Archbishop of Budapest, and Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Mueller, former prefect of the Vatican Congregation of the Doctrine of Faith.
Prime Minister Orbán also met Christian leaders from Nigeria. Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith of Sri Lanka thanked Hungary and Orbán for their support and gestures of solidarity to the Sri Lankan people. "Our estimation is that more than 90 percent of Christian have already left Iraq and almost 50 percent of Christians in Syria have left the country", the Patriarch of the Syrian Orthodox Church Ignatius Aphrem II said in Budapest. The Hungarian government gave 1.9 million euros for rebuilding Christian houses in Telskuf, Iraq.
The French author Bernard-Henri Lévy recently returned from a trip in Nigeria and he described anti-Christian hate in a long essay for Paris Match: "The mutilated corpses of women. This little girl strangled with the chain of her cross. This other one, smashed against a tree at the entrance of her hamlet". Lévy describes "the call of the mosques radicalized by the Muslim Brotherhood and which multiply to the exact extent that the churches are burning". That is why Hungary also provided aid to Nigeria's Christian communities. 1,000 Christians have been murdered in Nigeria only this year.
Hungary is the only country in Europe not only organizing international conferences on Christian persecution, but also devoting specific aid to Christians in the Middle East. The Hungary Helps initiative is providing $1.7 million to supporting hospitals in Syria. Azbej said that the Hungarian government is "running programs in five Middle Eastern and two sub-Saharan countries" with "one of the most extensive programs [being] the reconstruction of the city of Tel Askuf in Northern Iraq".
Hungary also donated $450,000 to build a new school in Erbil (in the Kurdish inhabited area of Iraq, where many Christians found shelter). Italian Cardinal Mario Zenari, Vatican's envoy to Syria for a decade, approached the Hungarian government for help. Christian Orthodox leaders also thanked Orbán for his support. US aid agencies also signed agreements with Hungary on persecution of Christians.
Two years ago, when Orbán opened the first International Consultation on Christian Persecution hosted in Budapest, he called on Europe to break the "shackles of political correctness" and stand against Christian persecution. No one else in Europe except him speaks about defending "Christianity". In addition, Hungary's parliament passed a government-initiated decree to call attention to attacks against Christians and qualify it as genocide.
The special "Hungary Helps" programme was set up to provide aid to persecuted Christians in Africa and the Middle East. "Help should be provided where the trouble lies instead of bringing the trouble to Europe," said a spokesman for the programme, which disbursed $30m in aid during the past two years. In solidarity with persecuted Christians, Hungary Helps added the Arabic letter ن, which was painted by ISIS on Christian homes in northern Iraq for labelling the Christians who had to convert to Islam, pay a protection tax, flee or face death.
Other European governments have been all cowardly in the extreme. The so-called "humanitarian Europe" has stood silent, exuding hypocrisy, spinelessness and blindness. European leaders, rather than being embarrassed, should make the condition of Christians under Islam the starting point of their conversations with Muslims. Why have the governments of the UK, France, Germany, Italy and others -- countries far richer and larger than Hungary -- not done the same as Hungary? Why have they turned off the microphones?
"The fate of Eastern Christians and other minorities is the prelude to our own fate," said former French Prime Minister François Fillon recently. Like it or not, "illiberal" Orbán understands it. His liberal critics do not.
*Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and author.
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ريموند إبراهيم: عمليات إبادة للمسيحيين في بوركينا فاسو مهملة ومغيبة عن الإعلام والإهتمام
Another Ignored Genocide of Christians Plagues Burkina Faso
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/December 15/2019
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While a total of 12 Islamic terror attacks in Burkina Faso were registered in 2016, nearly 160 were reported in just the first five months of 2019.
The situation has reached the point where… the mainstream media habitually downplay the religious element whenever Muslims attack Christians, by referring to it as “sectarian strife….
[T]he militants told everyone to lie down and proceeded to look for Christians by asking for first names or looking for anyone wearing Christian insignia (like crosses). The deadly search yielded four men…. [W]hen they saw crosses, the assailants singled them out. All four were taken aside and executed.” – June 27, 2019.
“There is no Christian anymore in this town [Arbinda],” said a local contact; “… they [terrorists] were looking for Christians. Families who hide Christians are [also] killed. Arbinda had now lost in total no less than 100 people within six months.”
According to a local, “The assailants asked the Christians to convert to Islam, but the pastor and the others refused.” So “they called them, one after the other, behind the church building where they shot them dead.”
One can only hope that the response of the media and international community will be stronger than their usual one: ignoring the massacres. This slaughter has been already been characterized as a “genocide of Christians.” When, then, will the media and the so-called human rights groups finally confront — or at the very least condemn or even report on — these religiously fueled massacres plaguing West Africa?
On Sunday, December 1, 2019, Islamic terrorists raided a Protestant Christian church in Burkina Faso during the service and massacred 14 worshippers. The pastor and several children were among those killed.
This is but the latest of many lethal attacks on the Christian minority of the small nation located in West Africa, a region better known for the persecution of Christians in Nigeria.
Discussing the situation in Burkina Faso — which is approximately 60% Muslim, 23% Christian, and 17% animist or other — the BBC reported that “Jihadist violence has flared in Burkina Faso since 2016…. Fighters affiliated to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group as well as the local Ansarul Islam [Champions of Islam] have been active in the region.”
However, while a total of 12 Islamic terror attacks were registered in 2016, nearly 160 were reported in just the first five months of 2019.
Although the mainstream media habitually downplay the religious element whenever Muslims attack Christians — often by referring to it as “sectarian strife” — attacks in Burkina Faso have become so flagrantly based on religion that even the Washington Post published a report on August 21 titled, “Islamist militants are targeting Christians in Burkina Faso”: “A spreading Islamist insurgency has transformed Burkina Faso from a peaceful country known for farming, a celebrated film festival and religious tolerance into a hotbed of extremism.
” The report notes that the jihadis have been checking people’s necks for Christian symbols, killing anyone wearing a crucifix or carrying any other Christian image. On other occasions, “the armed terrorists challenged Christians to convert or die.”
Despite such clear indicators of motive, many in the establishment are sticking to the “narrative”: “To my mind,” explained Sten Hagberg, a Swedish professor of anthropology at Uppsala University, the attacks have “much more to do with politics and economics than religion.”
Meanwhile, for those closer to the ground, “Christians … are currently being exterminated or expelled from their villages by Muslim extremists,” to quote from a September 18 report. “If this continues without anyone intervening,” Bishop Laurent, president of the bishops’ conference of Burkina Faso and Niger, adds, “the result will be the elimination of the Christian presence in this area and — perhaps in the future — in the entire country.”
This would appear not to be an exaggeration. Below are some of the more lethal attacks on Christians in 2019 alone:
June 27: “[U]nidentified armed individuals entered the village of Bani … looking for Christians… [T]he militants told everyone to lie down and proceeded to look for Christians by asking for first names or looking for anyone wearing Christian insignia (like crosses).
The deadly search yielded four men…. They were all wearing crosses…. [W]hen they saw crosses, the assailants singled them out. All four were taken aside and executed.” They then moved on to another village, Pougrenoma, where “They also told Christians to convert or risk execution.”
June 9 and 10: On Sunday, June 9, in the town of Arbinda, Muslims murdered 19 Christians. On the next day, another ten Christians were murdered in a nearby town.
An additional eleven thousand Christians were displaced. “There is no Christian anymore in this town [Arbinda],” said a local contact; “It’s proven that they [terrorists] were looking for Christians. Families who hide Christians are [also] killed. Arbinda had now lost in total no less than 100 people within six months.”
On Sunday, May 26, armed Muslims stormed a Catholic church during mass and opened fire on the gathered worshippers; four were killed and several others injured.
On May 13, armed Muslims attacked a Catholic procession, slaughtered four Christians and “burned a statue of the Virgin Mary.”
On May 12, approximately 30 armed Muslims stormed a Catholic church, slaughtered at least six worshippers — including the officiating priest — and then burned the church to the ground.
On Sunday, April 28, Islamic terrorists stormed a Protestant church and killed six worshippers, including the 80-year-old pastor and his two sons. According to a local, “The assailants asked the Christians to convert to Islam, but the pastor and the others refused.” So “they called them, one after the other, behind the church building where they shot them dead.”
On April 5, Islamic gunmen entered a Catholic church and murdered four Christians.
Sometime in February, Muslim terrorists abducted and murdered Antonio Cesar Fernandez, a 72-year-old Christian who had served as a missionary in Africa since 1982. Weeks earlier, Kirk Woodman, a Canadian was also kidnapped and later found murdered.
Although some attacks are not lethal, they exhibit no less an animosity for Christians. In early September, for example, an eyewitness explained what happened in the village of Hitté:
“16 men arrived in the village, intercepting the villagers who were returning from the fields. Some of the men forced the people to enter the church where they threatened the Christians and ordered them to leave their homes in the next three days, while others set fire to whatever they found in their path. Now Hitté no longer has any Christians and any catechumens.”
Instead of killing them outright, the militants sometimes give Christians a chance to convert to Islam. One local source referred to it as “part of a program by the jihadists who are deliberately sowing terror, assassinating members of the Christian communities and forcing the remaining Christians to flee after warning them that they will return in three days’ time — and that they do not wish to find any Christians or catechumens still there… The situation is critical.”
The Islamic terrorists operating in Burkina Faso are similar to other African jihadi groups, such as Nigeria’s Boko Haram and Somalia’s Al Shabaab. Like them, when not terrorizing churches and slaughtering Christians, they target anything else that might be associated with the West. According to a May report:
Much of the Islamic anger in Burkina Faso has to do with the teaching of so-called Western thoughts and ideals. Besides churches, schools are also a favorite target of the militants, who are pushing to make the country an Islamic state and impose Sharia Law… Of 2,869 schools in Burkina Faso, 1,111 have been closed in the last three years as a direct result of Islamic extremist violence.
“A lot of schools have been torched,” said one head teacher, whose school in the town of Foubẽ was set ablaze.
Like other African Islamic terror groups, the motivating ideology fueling the terrorists of Burkina Faso is distinctly jihadi in nature. After eight Muslims were arrested for their role in terrorist attacks that killed up to 28 people, for example, the prosecutor said, “they all carried on their foreheads or had white bands on which were written in Arabic … ‘there is no god but Allah and Muhammad is His Messenger.'” Also, when they opened fire on the French Embassy in Ouagadougou, the five assailants were heard to shout the jihadi war cry, “Allahu Akbar” (“Allah is greater”).
Even if groups such as Islamic State have been defeated in Iraq and Syria, the jihad continues to spread in more obscure and forgotten nations around the world, such as Burkina Faso, where it consumes countless nameless and faceless innocents. One can only hope that the response of the media and international community will be stronger than their usual one: ignoring the massacres. This slaughter has been already been characterized as a “genocide of Christians.” When, then, will the media and the so-called human rights groups finally confront — or at the very least condemn or even report on — these religiously-fueled massacres plaguing West Africa?
Raymond Ibrahim, author of the new book, Sword and Scimitar, Fourteen Centuries of War between Islam and the West, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Gatestone Institute, a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center, and a Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
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Tehran, Moscow and Beijing – an unholy alliance?
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/December 15/2019
Donald Trump’s punitive policies are having the unexpected consequence of creating a tactical marriage of convenience between Russia, China and Iran. Traditional rivals Moscow and Beijing have just inaugurated a $55bn joint gas pipeline project and the three states are about to embark on joint military exercises in the Indian Ocean. During his summer visit to Moscow, President Xi Jinping hailed Putin as his “best friend,” and set the goal of bilateral trade reaching $200 billion in 2024.
“Iran, Russia, Turkey, and China have something in common in that they have been facing pressure from the Americans,” explained one Iran expert. “As much as the unilateral approach of Donald Trump is a danger to Iran, it’s a danger to Russia, China and other countries.”
Russia and China regard Iran as a testing ground for neutralizing the impact of international sanctions. China’s government has quietly counselled its companies (heavily invested in Iran’s oil sector) to remain in the Iranian marketplace, while the US recently imposed sanctions on Chinese entities for illegally facilitating the transport of Iranian oil. Moscow has pledged to ignore US sanctions against Iran’s banking sector: Iran’s Central Bank governor announced that Moscow and Tehran had aligned their banking systems, circumventing the internationally scrutinized SWIFT network. Russia recently agreed $5 billion in additional loans to cushion Tehran from sanctions and domestic unrest.
After Iran’s attacks in September on GCC oil infrastructure, President Hassan Rouhani travelled to Ankara for a meeting at which he, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin provocatively mocked US defense systems, while Putin touted the benefits of purchasing military equipment from Moscow. This coincided with Iranian armed forces commander Mohammad Bagheri touring Chinese military installations, and an Iranian delegation discussing major trade deals for integrating Iran into Beijing’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.
These are furthermore the three most aggressive states in waging cyberwarfare, while also building walls between their citizens and global internet content. Beijing has ordered officials to remove Western technology from their offices, mirroring US punitive measures against companies such as Huawei and moving us toward a technological “cold war.”
Putin is a ruthless repressor of human rights; China has incarcerated over a million Uighur citizens and seeks to undermine democracy in Hong Kong; Iran has again murdered hundreds of its own citizens in a bloody crackdown. Turkey, meanwhile, has embarked on a vicious program of ethnic cleansing against Syria’s Kurds. China and Russia’s UN Security Council seats allow them to shield themselves and other rogue regimes from international justice.
When Trump announced that he would surrender northern Syria to Turkey, it was Moscow that brokered understandings between Erdogan and Assad about how key segments of Syria would be carved up between them; consolidating Putin as the broker of choice in Middle Eastern conflicts. His payoffs come in the form of new military bases and monopolies over natural resources concessions.
Russia has signed contracts to sell sophisticated radar systems to unidentified Middle Eastern countries, thought to include Syria and Iraq. It would be bitterly ironic if the impact of Israeli airstrikes on paramilitary bases in these states was to drive Damascus and Baghdad more closely into Moscow and Tehran’s defensive embrace.
While China has embarked on massive infrastructure projects across Africa, Russia is the continent’s largest weapons supplier. Putin hosted 43 African heads of state at Sochi in October. In Central African Republic, Madagascar, Mozambique, Sudan and elsewhere Russian mercenaries have been operating in exchange for lucrative mineral and oil concessions.
Russia and China regard Iran as a testing ground for neutralizing the impact of international sanctions
Ankara last month signed a maritime borders and defense agreement with the Tripoli regime in Libya, and indicated readiness to send troops. Meanwhile Moscow provides mercenaries and equipment for the rival forces of Khalifa Haftar — yet another example of the tortuous relationship between strongmen Putin and Erdogan as they carve out respective zones of influence.
Russian meddling remains a hot-button issue in the UK; the Conservative government refused to publish a report on Russian interference in UK democracy until last week’s election was over. Russian entities are major Conservative donors (about £3.5 million over the past decade) and billions of dollars have been laundered through the UK economy for Russian organized crime. A parliamentary inquiry was warned about Russia’s cultivation of networks of pliable British diplomats, lawyers and parliamentarians. In the context of Moscow’s backing for extreme-right parties across Europe, far-right politicians in Italy and Austria have been caught out expressing readiness to accept dirty Russian money.
Can Putin cling on to power after 2024, when he is constitutionally obliged to step down? One possible loophole is through a mooted revival of the neglected 20-year-old political union between Belarus and Russia, with Putin as supreme leader of the “union state.” In Belarus last weekend there were anti-Putin protests, coinciding with talks between the two leaders about such an enhanced alliance. Talks in France last week failed to move the sides significantly closer to addressing Russian aggression in Ukraine.
With Russia meddling across the Middle East and dozens of other African, Asian and Latin American states, Putin is obviously punching above his weight in a manner that is neither politically nor financially sustainable. Russia has twice the land mass of Europe, but less than a tenth of its GDP. However, a tactical alliance between these three nations of 1.6 billion people, straddling more than 27 million sq. km., affords Putin and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei the opportunity to run rings around the West.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s warning that NATO was “brain dead” is uncomfortably accurate, evidenced by Trump’s angry summit walkout after the alliance’s other leaders ridiculed him. The prognosis for other multilateral institutions such as the UN Security Council is arguably even worse. The international community is crying out for a new generation of far-sighted and energetic leaders who can work together to remodel the international system in response to contemporary challenges.
If hopelessly divided Western nations fail to rediscover their common ground in defense of democratic values and the rule of law, they risk being subsumed by a rival emerging global bloc and its repressive model of governance.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

Will cash-hungry Iran hit the wall next year?
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/December 15/2019
Iran is facing an increasingly dire financial situation amid a shrinking economy and hard-hitting US sanctions. The regime is desperate for cash to fund its military adventurism in the region, support its militia groups and proxies, and run its institutions inside the country.
The government’s pension fund system, which heavily relies on subsidies, is on the verge of collapse. The system provides funds to various government institutions, including the regime’s armed forces. According to recent National Security Council documents, “the impact (of US sanctions) has been so severe that of the 18 existing retirement funds in Iran, 17 are in the red.”Iran’s economic situation is not sustainable and its leaders are unlikely to sit idly next year watching their power diminish in the region or their decades of investments in foreign proxies and militia groups go to waste. The theocratic establishment is hoping to gain revenues next year without relying heavily on oil exports.
Announcing a “budget of resistance” recently, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said: “This is a budget to resist sanctions with the least possible dependence on oil. This budget announces to the world that despite sanctions we can manage the country.”
But the question is: What methods will the regime most likely employ in order to generate the necessary revenues?
Historically, whenever Iran’s leaders have faced economic challenges and sanctions, they have redirected the financial pressure on to the ordinary people who make up the majority of the population.
The result is that the regime generally increases prices of commodities, collects more taxes, cuts subsidies and social services, and reduces spending on infrastructure.
While underfunding infrastructure projects and social services can deliver some revenue boost to the government, it also has negative repercussions for the ruling mullahs. The welfare of most Iranians — specifically, the middle class and low-income families — will deteriorate significantly as a result of such measures.
In addition, the country’s unemployment rate and inflation will most likely go up. This will ratchet up dissatisfaction, frustration and resistance against the regime, providing a ripe environment for widespread protests threatening the ruling clerics’ hold on power.
Iran’s economic situation is not sustainable and its leaders are unlikely to sit idly next year watching their power diminish in the region.
More fundamentally, any extra revenue from increasing taxes and cutting subsidies will be inadequate, partially because the regime’s institutions and the wealthy individuals connected to the establishment will most likely continue evading taxes with impunity.
Intriguingly, even the Iranian newspaper Donya-e Eqtesad acknowledged last week that “at present, tax revenue consists of about 30 percent of the total government budget. This figure is very low, and the tax is collected relatively unjustly due to many high-income people not paying taxes.”
The second method that Iranian leaders will rely on next year to boost revenues: Skirting sanctions through illicit means. This includes increasing black-market oil exports as well as employing shell companies to carry out the regime’s financial activities.
On the surface, such companies, which are spread across the world, appear to be legitimate independent firms. But in reality, they are run by the regime, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, or a program called the “Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order,” which helps the regime evade sanctions and provides revenue.
For example, one such revelation related to a New York skyscraper housing a string of high-profile corporate tenants. Last year, acting US Attorney for the Southern District of New York Joon H. Kim revealed how rent paid by these firms was helping the Iranian regime, saying: “Through all the efforts to sanction and isolate Iran, a state sponsor of terrorism, the owners (of the building) gave the Iranian government a critical foothold in the heart of Manhattan, through which Iran successfully circumvented US economic sanctions.”
Nevertheless, since the US is closely monitoring Iran’s financial activities, and increasing pressure on the regime through economic and political sanctions, this approach will not answer the Iranian regime’s financial needs. As a result, the regime will most likely ask for loans from other governments. Many of Iran’s allies, such as Syria, also face economic problems. Tehran can probably seek loans from China and Russia. Iranian Energy Minister Reza Ardakanian recently held talks with his Russian counterpart, Alexander Novak, over a $5 billion loan. But this approach will not address the country’s economic crisis.
In a nutshell, the Iranian regime is running out of options to generate adequate revenues next year. Increasing taxes on the population and underfunding infrastructure projects will only increase dissatisfaction with the regime.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

A new page in Turkey-Libya relations
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/December 15/2019
When Libya fell into chaos in 2011, France decided to involve NATO. Paris thought the international community had the responsibility to protect the Libyan people from its leader Muammar Qaddafi.
After the operation started, then-Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s first reaction was “What is NATO’s business in Libya?”
But as the popular uprising spread in the country, Turkey thought that if it did not intervene in the conflict, $27 billion of contracts of Turkish companies operating in Libya may be exposed to risks, so it decided to cooperate with NATO. It did not take part in the airstrikes, but concurred with the decision to impose a no-fly zone and arms embargo. It sent five battleships to contribute to operations. In the subsequent years, Turkey remained involved in the crisis, but on the opposite side of the international community.
There are, at present, three competing governments in Libya.
One is the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), based in Tripoli. It controls an area that corresponds roughly to 6 percent of Libya’s territory. The government is controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood-inclined members of parliament. This government is supported by Turkey, Qatar and the EU — with the exception of France and Italy.
The rival government, House of Representatives, is formed by MPs who disagreed with the Muslim Brotherhood and moved to Tobruk. General Khalifa Haftar supports the Tobruk government and a few months ago ordered his troops to seize Tripoli.
The Tripoli government displayed an unexpectedly stiff resistance to Haftar’s attack and is still holding. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the UAE militarily support this government. France extends political support to it while the US looks hesitant. The Tobruk government controls three quarters of Libya’s territory.
The third party in the Libyan crisis is a relatively weak authority, composed of various southern Arab and Tebu tribes with extensions in Tchad, Mali and Sudan, but controls 18 percent of Libya’s territory. The region is rich in oil and other minerals, but at present the main income accrues from limited trade with the neighboring countries and from smuggling.
Turkey-Libya relations returned to the agenda of international relations when two weeks ago Turkey and Libya signed two memoranda of understanding with the GNA. One was for the delineation of their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), the other for security and military cooperation. Erdogan recently said that if the Libyan government makes a formal request, Turkey might send troops to Libya.
If Turkey also deploys a sizeable force in Libya to protect the Tripoli government, this may change several paradigms in Syria, Libya and in Turkish-Russian relations.
A critical question is what will happen to the memoranda if Haftar seizes Tripoli and eliminates the government. Will he abrogate the memorandum — especially the one on the EEZ — because it was signed by the government that he fought, or will he maintain it because it makes available to the government vast sea area for exploration?
A similar question arises for Egypt. The Turkey-Libya accord also enlarges the Egyptian EEZ, but it is unclear whether Cairo will stick to the agreement that it signed with Greece, Greek Cypriots and Israel.
There was a standstill for months between the forces of the Tripoli government and Haftar army. But the situation may now change because, according to The New York Times, Russia, in early November, sent regular army troops to Libya, complete with Sukhoi jets, coordinated missile strikes, precision-guided artillery and snipers. These are in addition to the Russian Wagner Group mercenaries that are fighting on Haftar’s side.
If Turkey also deploys a sizeable force in Libya to protect the Tripoli government, this may change several paradigms in Syria, Libya and in Turkish-Russian relations.
Both Ankara and Moscow will likely do their best to avoid any sort of deterioration of relations between them. Libya is important for Russia, but driving a wedge in NATO by closely cooperating with Turkey is also important.
If the relations between Turkey and Russia deteriorate as a result of a confrontation in Libya, the process in the Syrian crisis may change its course and Turkey’s plans in Syria may run into difficulty in addition to the souring Turkish-Russian relations at large.
• Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar

Minorities under threat as Turkey’s ruling party embraces Islamism
Zulfikar Dogan/The Arab Weekly/December 15/2019
Erdogan's rule of Turkey and his adherence to Islamist politics fanned the sectarian flames.
In the heady days after the “Arab spring” revolts erupted in 2011, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party were held up as models of moderate Islamist democracy that new governments could emulate.
Turkey’s support for Islamist parties abroad was married to a reformist approach at home that saw the Justice and Development Party (AKP) promise to address problems suffered by Turkey’s minorities in a series of what the party called “openings.”
There was the Alevi Opening, the Armenian Opening, the Romani Opening and the Democratic Opening, in which the AKP vowed to resolve the country’s decades-long Kurdish issue.
The party promised mother-tongue education for Kurds, legal status for Alevi places of worship, a drive to improve relations with Armenia and guarantees for the rights of Turkish Romanis, one of the country’s most isolated minorities.
The AKP welcomed three important foreign guests to its party congress in 2012: former Egyptian President Muhammad Morsi; Masoud Barzani, then president of the Kurdistan Regional Government; and Khaled Meshaal, the leader of the Palestinian militant Islamist group Hamas. Behind the enthusiastic reception for these three guests, at least in part, was public optimism over what many viewed as promising democratic drives for reform that began with the openings in 2009.
However, since Erdogan became president in 2014 and began the path towards the executive presidential system and one-man rule of today’s Turkey, those openings have fallen by the wayside and consigned to memory. First forgotten were the promises to the Romani communities. Those in Istanbul’s historic Sulukule quarter lost their homes after their neighbourhoods were handed over to developers to build new luxury housing projects.
Turkey’s relations with Armenia have historically been hostile, because of the massacres of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey starting in 1915 that are widely recognised as genocide and the Azeri-Armenian dispute over Azerbaijan’s breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region.
A brief thaw began under the AKP government in 2008 and 2009 when then-President Abdullah Gul made the first visit of a Turkish head of state to Armenia and the two countries’ foreign ministers signed two protocols in Zurich aimed at normalising relations.
However, the protocols were never ratified and the old enmity crept back. In 2014, when Erdogan said at a rally he had been called an Armenian -- as if this was an insult -- many viewed this as a subconscious slip that exposed the lack of sincerity behind this opening and made it evident that it had been planned purely as a vote-winner.
At home, the AKP promised to extend funding from Turkey’s Religious Directorate -- now the best-funded Turkish public institution -- to places of worship of Alevis, the largest religious minority in the country.
Despite its promises and a ruling by the European Court of Human Rights demanding it support the minority, the AKP government has failed to even subsidise fuel expenses for Alevi places of worship -- as is provided to mosques -- let alone providing them with official legal status.
The Alevi opening had been greeted with optimism in Turkey. Alevis, who make up 10-20% of the population, suffered greatly under nationalist governments and during the high tensions that have blighted Turkey’s modern history. Pogroms of Alevi communities in Kahramanmaras, Corum and Malatya preceded the military coup in 1980 and dozens of Alevi intellectuals were killed in 1993 when an Islamist mob set fire to a hotel in Sivas. The opening lost credibility when the ruling party invited nationalist politician Okkeş Şendiller, the prime suspect in the Kahramanmaras massacre, to join a working group on the issue. Since then, the government has further alienated the minority by ramping up compulsory religious lessons taught from a Sunni Muslim perspective.
Like the Kurdish Opening, which collapsed after the AKP lost its majority because of the success of the pro-Kurdish party in the 2015 elections, the Alevi Opening is history.
Far from bringing assurances of peace and equal rights for the Alevi community, sectarian harassment has continued under AKP rule. Incidents in Izmir and Mersin, in which Alevis woke to find their homes marked with crosses in red paint and the phrase “Alevis out,” followed years of similar abuse across the country. As much as Erdogan condemns such incidents, his rule of Turkey and his adherence to Islamist politics fanned the sectarian flames. While each minority opening has crashed to a halt, the AKP closely supports Sunni Islamist allies around the world.