LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 15/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Do you not know that you are God’s temple and that God’s Spirit dwells in you? If anyone destroys God’s temple, God will destroy that person
First Letter to the Corinthians 03/10-23/:”According to the grace of God given to me, like a skilled master builder I laid a foundation, and someone else is building on it. Each builder must choose with care how to build on it. For no one can lay any foundation other than the one that has been laid; that foundation is Jesus Christ. Now if anyone builds on the foundation with gold, silver, precious stones, wood, hay, straw the work of each builder will become visible, for the Day will disclose it, because it will be revealed with fire, and the fire will test what sort of work each has done. If what has been built on the foundation survives, the builder will receive a reward. If the work is burned, the builder will suffer loss; the builder will be saved, but only as through fire. Do you not know that you are God’s temple and that God’s Spirit dwells in you? If anyone destroys God’s temple, God will destroy that person. For God’s temple is holy, and you are that temple. Do not deceive yourselves. If you think that you are wise in this age, you should become fools so that you may become wise. For the wisdom of this world is foolishness with God. For it is written, ‘He catches the wise in their craftiness’, and again, ‘The Lord knows the thoughts of the wise, that they are futile.’So let no one boast about human leaders. For all things are yours, whether Paul or Apollos or Cephas or the world or life or death or the present or the future all belong to you, and you belong to Christ, and Christ belongs to God.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 14-15/2019
Kataeb Mourn Party’s First Deputy-President Joseph Abu Khalil
Former President Pays Tribute to Abu Khalil
Sami Gemayel Promises Abu Khalil to Stay Faithful to Kataeb's Values as He Was
Back shirts of Hezbollah, Amal and their vassals/Dr. Walid Phares
Dozens injured in violent clashes with security forces in Beirut
Street battles in Beirut as counter-protesters clash with police
Protracted street clashes engulf Beirut near protest camp
Lebanese security forces and Hezbollah supporters clash in central Beirut
Lebanese protesters clash with security forces near parliament in central Beirut
Hezbollah supporters clash with riot police in Beirut
Shencker Says Hizbullah Financiers are Liable to Sanctions
Pompeo: We Stand with People of Lebanon against Corruption, Terrorism
Geagea Meets Khoury, Says LF Won’t Be Part of New Govt.
Emadi Says Qatar to 'Stand by' Lebanon during Crisis
US sanctions millionaire Hezbollah moneymen as Nasrallah speaks

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 14-15/2019
Turkish leader and UAE emir face off over the Palestinian succession race
Iraqi supporters of pro-Iran group protest US sanctions
Ex-Sudan Strongman al-Bashir Gets 2 Years for Corruption
Turkey Increases Reward for Info on Dahlan to $1.7 Million
Iraq: Sudani Close to Leading Interim Government

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 14-15/2019
Back shirts of Hezbollah, Amal and their vassals/Dr. Walid Phares/December 14/2019
Resignation of the Lebanese President and all the Top Officials Is A Must/Abu Arz-Etian Saqer/December 13/2019
Attack on Hezbollah critic sheds light on group’s shifting tactics/Ismaeel Naar/Al Arabiya English/December 14/2019
Lebanon turns to World Bank and IMF as country faces economic meltdown/Massoud A Derhally/The National/December 14/2019
Analysis/Despite Sanctions and Protests, Israel Knows Trump Still Wants Negotiations With Iran/Amir Tibon and Amos Harel/Haaretz/December 14/2019
As Lebanon's post-war system dies, a new one struggles to be born/Timour Azhari/Al Jazeera/December 15/2019
Both the US and Iran are determined to avoid war – for now/Raghida Dergham/The National/December 14/2019
*Turkish leader and UAE emir face off over the Palestinian succession race/DEBKAfile/December 14/2019
*Behind the Lines: The riddles of Baghdad/Jonathan Sper/Jerusalem Post/December 14/2019
It’s Time for Europe to Stand with the Iranian People/Dr. Eric R. Mandel/MEPIN/December 14/2019
Getting Iran Out of Syria: The Dayan Formula/Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen/BESA/December 14/2019
Exposing the jihadi mouthpieces who pollute our world/Peter Welb/Arab News/December 15/2019
Israel braced for another divisive Groundhog Day election/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/December 15/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 14-15/2019
Kataeb Mourn Party’s First Deputy-President Joseph Abu Khalil
Kataeb.org/December 14/2019
The Kataeb party on Saturday mourned the death of the party’s first Deputy-President Joseph Abu Khalil, hailing him as the its first fighter in the path towards independence. The 94-year old politburo member’s departure signifies “the turning of entire pages on the party’s struggle and resistance, whether alongside the Kataeb founder to achieve Lebanon’s first independence, or alongside the current party chief in his journey of opposition,” the party paid tribute on its website page. Joseph Abu Khalil had held various high offices within the party over the years. He was one of the founders of the Voice of Lebanon radio station in 1958, then editor-in-chief of the daily Kataeb al-Amal during the Lebanese civil war which was launched in 1975. He was regularly referred to as the “spiritual son” of the party’s founder, Pierre Gemayel, and worked as a close advisor to former President Bachir Gemayel. In February, Abu Khalil had been re-elected to his post at the party's general assembly.

Former President Pays Tribute to Abu Khalil
Kataeb.org/December 14/2019
Former President Amine Gemayel on Saturday paid tribute to the party’s first Deputy-President Joseph Abu Khalil, expressing his deeply saddened heart over the loss of the comrade to the long struggle and difficult path of Pierre Gemayel and the witness to the birth of the Kataeb and Lebanon. “With him, I have lost the true meaning of truthfulness and loyalty, nobility and honor. He was an advocator of freedom of speech, embracing it as a writer, thinker and speaker until his last breath.”“He made an exceptional mark on Lebanon’s golden record.”

Sami Gemayel Promises Abu Khalil to Stay Faithful to Kataeb's Values as He Was
Kataeb.org/December 14/2019
Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel on Saturday expressed his sorrow over the death of the party’s first Deputy-President Joseph Abu Khalil, hailing him as “a spiritual father, loyal friend and a committed comrade”. “The Kataeb party has lost the first witness to its struggle,” Gemayel wrote on his twitter, promising Abu Khalil to hold onto the values and constants of the party and be devoted for Lebanon’s safekeeping as he did. “The man died but the legend is born.”“Lebanon suffers the loss of someone who had given it a century of love, faith and sacrifice,” he wrote. “Your smile will be forever engraved in our hearts,” Gemayel said.

Back shirts of Hezbollah, Amal and their vassals
Dr. Walid Phares/December 14/2019
Getting many videos from Lebanon about the "brown shirts" (some call them back shirts) of Hezbollah, Amal and their vassals, parading in Beirut to intimidate the protesters. It is colorful, loud and primitive, but it is not going to intimidate the people to the point of ending the uprising.
And the reason is that most Lebanese on the streets have nothing to lose. Those militias are flexing muscles. Every other Lebanese can flex muscles, if they want. But the protesters aren't. They want to continue to be non violent and operate under Lebanese and international laws. If the "militias" cross the line, they will meet popular resistance and international measures. Their choice is to keep parading, and they can do so at will, or cross the line, and leap into the next level.

Resignation of the Lebanese President and all the Top Officials Is A Must
Abu Arz-Etian Saqer/December 13/2019
Due to solid facts related to an ongoing Lebanese governmental crisis that is not going to be solved soon,
And because all tangible circumstances indicate that this promised rescue government will not be formed in the near future
And Since all practical solutions for the imminent financial-monetary-economic-social crisis are technically linked to the governmental crisis.
And Since the general conditions of the country is worsening day by day, and warns of a comprehensive and terrifying collapse.
And since the top official have entirely failed in everything and at all levels,
Therefore, the resignation of the Lebanese President of the Republic, along with all the top officials becomes an inevitable and urgent national necessity.
The available two choices are either an inevitable and immediate resignation, or an inevitable and disastrous comprehensive collapse.
Long Live Our Holy Lebanon'

Dozens injured in violent clashes with security forces in Beirut
The National/December 15/2019
Riot police deployed in large numbers in the Lebanese capital on Saturday night The clashes continued into the early morning on Sunday as riot police used water cannon and more tear gas to disperse protesters who pelted them with stones.State news agency NNA said the tear gas had made several people faint, while the Lebanese Civil Defence said it treated 54 people who were wounded, taking more than half to hospital.
The Lebanese Red Cross told AFP people had been treated for breathing difficulties and fainting, along with injuries caused by stones, noting that both security personnel and civilians were among those treated.
The Internal Security Forces said at least 20 police were wounded.
Hundreds of people were gathered as part of a wave of protests that have swept Lebanon since October 17, furious at a ruling elite that steered the country towards its worst economic crisis in decades.
Riot police and security forces deployed en masse in Beirut on Saturday night, chasing demonstrators in the street, beating and detaining some of them, a Reuters witness and a protester said.
The forces fired tear gas canisters and rubber bullets as some protesters tried to push through steel barriers blocking paths to the parliament and government headquarters. Protesters accuse the political class of milking the state for their own benefit through networks of patronage.
Earlier on Saturday dozens of young people opposed to the anti-government protest movement clashed with riot police in the capital, throwing rocks and firecrackers against volleys of teargas.
Young counter-protesters from an area of Beirut dominated by the powerful Shiite movement Hezbollah and fellow Shiite movement Amal tried to raid a key anti-government protest camp in Martyrs' Square on Saturday afternoon.Anti-riot police intervened, firing teargas to disperse them. The square, in central Beirut, has been at the epicentre of the protests over perceived official corruption, poor services and economic woes.These large anti-government rallies, which grew into calls for a root-and-branch overhaul of the state, have mostly passed off peacefully.
However, clashes have become more frequent in recent weeks, with supporters of Hezbollah and Amal attacking protest camps in several cities amid counter-demonstrations.
Both Amal and Hezbollah are partners in Lebanon's cross-sectarian government. The counter-protests have taken place in the capital and other Lebanese cities in recent weeks, prompting the leader of Hezbollah on Friday to urge his supporters and those of Amal to stay calm.
Hassan Nasrallah said that the "anger" of some of his movement's members had gone "out of control" but stressed it had been quickly contained.
Lebanese security services had already used force to disperse anti-government protesters earlier this week.
Since the protests pushed Saad Al Hariri to resign as prime minister in late October, talks between the main parties have been deadlocked over forming a new cabinet. Lebanon urgently needs a new government to pull it out of the crisis which has also shaken confidence in its banking system. Foreign donors say they will only help after the country gets a cabinet that can enact reforms. The process of forming a government will take place as Lebanon faces an economic crisis.

Street battles in Beirut as counter-protesters clash with police
Al Jazeera/December 15/2019
Opponents of anti-gov't protesters clash with riot police, throwing rocks and firecrackers against volleys of teargas. Riot police in Lebanon's capital have fired tear gas to disperse men who tried to attack a key anti-government protest camp, setting off street battles that lasted for hours.
The clashes on Saturday marked some of the worst in Beirut since demonstrations against the country's entire political establishment began almost two months ago.The rise in tensions comes as politicians have failed to agree on forming a new government. It comes only two days away from consultations between the president and parliamentary blocs to name a prime minister.
Protesters demanding an overhaul of the country's political systems want the formation of a new government that is not affiliated with established parties. The government headed by Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on October 29, two weeks after the nationwide protests began against an ruling elite blamed for state corruption and steering Lebanon into the worst economic crisis since the 1975-90 civil war.The young men on Saturday attacked the epicentre of anti-government protests, apparently trying to storm it to prevent a gathering of anti-government protesters. The attackers approached the protest camp in central Beirut from a neighbourhood known as a stronghold for supporters of the Shia Hezbollah and Amal groups.
It was the second time this week that pro-Hezbollah and Amal supporters tried to attack the protest camp, angered by demonstrators' criticism of their leaders. Later on Saturday, hundreds of anti-government protesters gathered outside parliament, also in central Beirut, and several people attacked the rally, prompting security forces to fire tear gas to push them back. The clashes spread to streets surrounding the protest camp, engulfing the area with smoke from the tear gas. Security forces chased protesters around central Beirut, some firing several volleys of tear gas from armoured vehicles with multiple launchers. The National News Agency reported that some shop windows in the commercial part of central Beirut were smashed by vandals. An Associated Press reporter saw one security member injured in an eye by a stone thrown by a protester.

Protracted street clashes engulf Beirut near protest camp
اشتباكات مطولة في الشوارع تجتاح بيروت بالقرب من معسكر الاحتجاج
Associated Press/December 14/2019
The rise in tensions comes as politicians have failed to agree on forming a new government.
BEIRUT: Lebanese security forces fired tear gas and clashed with men who tried to attack the anti-government protest camp in Beirut on Saturday, setting off street confrontations that lasted for hours. The clashes marked some of the worst in the capital since demonstrations began two months ago.
The clashes started when dozens of men, some wearing masks, pelted security forces with stones and threw firecrackers at them on one edge of the protest camp.
The security forces fired tear gas to keep the men away, but clashes continued. Riot police fired intense volleys of tear gas, some of the heaviest in two months. What started as a limited confrontation at one edge of the protest camp turned into protracted street clashes that also involved anti-government protesters.
The rise in tensions comes as politicians have failed to agree on forming a new government. It comes only two days away from consultations between the president and parliamentary blocs to name a prime minister.
Protesters have been calling for a new government unaffiliated with establishment political parties. The government headed by former Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned Oct. 29, two weeks after the nationwide protests began.
Hundreds of protesters returned to the epicenter of the protests after hours of clashes with security forces. Local TV station LBC showed dozens chanting against the security forces, accusing them of excessive force. Some chanted against Hariri returning as prime minister. He is emerging as the favorite candidate despite all the political bickering.
The violence Saturday started when young men attacked the epicenter of anti-government protests. The attackers chanted “Shiite Shiite” and approached the protest camp in central Beirut from a neighborhood known as a stronghold for supporters of the Shiite Amal and Hezbollah groups.
It was the second time this week that pro-Hezbollah and Amal supporters tried to attack the protest camp, angered by demonstrators’ criticism of their leaders.
Later on Saturday, hundreds of anti-government protesters, including women, gathered outside parliament, also in central Beirut, and several people attacked the rally, prompting security forces to fire tear gas to push them back.
It wasn’t clear who the attackers were but the parliament speaker is the head of the Shiite Amal group. The attack took place only a few meters (yards) from the epicenter of the protests, and the anti-government demonstrators were dispersed to side streets as tear gas filled the area. The attackers once again pelted security with stones. Dozens of protesters had traveled to Beirut from the northern city of Tripoli to take part in the parliament rally.
The clashes spread to streets surrounding the protest camp, engulfing the area with smoke from the tear gas. Security forces chased protesters around central Beirut, some firing several volleys of tear gas from armored vehicles with multiple launchers.
The National News Agency reported that some shop windows in the commercial part of central Beirut were smashed by vandals. An Associated Press reporter saw one security member injured in an eye by a stone thrown by a protester.
Recently, the anti-protesters accused activists who organize discussions under the name “the Hub” of hosting critics of Hezbollah and calling for normalization with Israel. Earlier this week, some lobbed firecrackers and burned a tent in the protest camp hosting discussions. On Saturday, critics of the attack organized a rally in support of the Hub, but canceled it shortly before the attempted attack.
The attackers Saturday outside the protest camp threw large firecrackers at security forces, who responded with tear gas, engulfing the area with a thick cloud of smoke. The National News Agency reported one security member was injured.
A preacher from the neighborhood mosque appealed to the men who attempted the attack to retreat. Local TV station LBC said officials from Hezbollah and Amal arrived on the scene to contain the situation. A tense calm ensued amid a tighter deployment of security.

Lebanese security forces and Hezbollah supporters clash in central Beirut
Arab News/December 15/2019
BEIRUT: Clashes broke out on Saturday between Lebanese security forces and Hezbollah supporters in downtown Beirut, some of whom tried to break into a barricaded central district of Lebanon's capital.
Teargas and rubber bullets were fired at the protestors, and the Lebanese Red Cross said several members of the security forces had to be taken to hospital with injuries.
A heavy security presence was put in place central Beirut after the Hezbollah supporters tried to advance to the city’s main central Martyr’s square, and riot police put out calls through loudspeakers for people in he Al-Khandaq Al-Ghamiq area of central Beirut not to gather.
Hundreds of people were gathered as part of a wave of protests that have swept Lebanon since Oct. 17, furious at a ruling elite that steered the country towards its worst economic crisis in decades.
Since the protests pushed Saad Al-Hariri to resign as prime minister in late October, talks between the main parties have been deadlocked over forming a new cabinet.
Lebanon urgently needs a new government to pull it out of the crisis which has also shaken confidence in its banking system. Foreign donors say they will only help after the country gets a cabinet that can enact reforms.
State news agency NNA said the tear gas had made several people faint, while the Lebanese Red Cross said 14 people were injured, six of them badly enough to need taking to hospital.
The unrest erupted from a build-up of anger at the rising cost of living, new tax plans and the record of leaders dominating the country since the 1975-90 civil war. Protesters accuse the political class of milking the state for their own benefit through networks of patronage.

Lebanese protesters clash with security forces near parliament in central Beirut
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 14 December 2019
Dozens of protesters clash with parliamentary police near the Nijmeh Square and at the entrance to the street leading to the Lebanese parliament in central Beirut. The parliamentary police threw teargas at the protesters who gathered late on Saturday in front of the parliament who were attempting to reaching the building. The Lebanese army sent reinforcements to the area to support the parliamentary forces, Al Arabiya’s correspondent on the ground confirmed. Hours earlier, anti-riot police clashed with Hezbollah and Amal supporters who tried to raid a key anti-government protest camp in Martyrs’ Square. The protest movement across Lebanon has so far forced the resignation of prime minister Saad Hariri on October 29 and official talks to name his replacement are to start Monday.

Hezbollah supporters clash with riot police in Beirut
Souad El Skaf, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 14 December 2019
Calm has been restored on Saturday along the Ring Bridge in Beirut, as a Lebanese military unit arrived to the scene which witnessed clashes between supporters of Hezbollah and Amal Movement and riot police. Earlier, supporters of Hezbollah and Amal Movement clashed with riot police in Beirut, according to an Al Arabiya correspondent. The supporters of the two Shiite groups tried to storm a protest gathered in Martyrs’ Square in central Beirut and near the Ring Bridge, throwing stones on cars parked near the bridge and also toward the riot police who responded by throwing tear gas. The Lebanese Internal Security Forces said that the riot police were subjected to “attacks and throwing of stones and firecrackers by some individuals,” demanding “an end to these attacks in order to avoid the adoption of stricter measures,” the Lebanese state news agency NNA reported. At least one police member was injured, according to the Lebanese Red Cross.

Shencker Says Hizbullah Financiers are Liable to Sanctions
Naharnet/December 14/2019
A U.S. diplomat stressed on Saturday that any party getting involved with financing Hizbullah will be subject to sanctions. “When we discover that a person or organization supports terrorism, we start collecting security and financial information about them in a file based on intelligence reports, legal arguments, and others. We announce the inclusion of these individuals and institutions on the sanctions list after coordination with other government agencies,” said U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, David Shencker in remarks he made to An-Nahar daily. “The Treasury decision is consistent with our position that Hizbullah is a terrorist, criminal, and corrupt organization. Its activities not only depend on the Shiite community, but also on other individuals and groups who facilitate its activities, they belong to other sects. When we impose sanctions on any person or entity, we do not take the religious background into account,” he added. On Friday, the U.S. Department of the Treasury slapped sanctions against Nazem Said Ahmad, Saleh Assi, Tony Saab and several firms allegedly linked to Hizbullah.

Pompeo: We Stand with People of Lebanon against Corruption, Terrorism
Naharnet/December 14/2019
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday announced that the U.S. stands by the Lebanese people in the face of “corruption and terrorism,” shortly after Washington slapped sanctions on three individuals and several firms allegedly linked to Hizbullah. “We stand with the people of Lebanon to fight against corruption and terrorism. Today we designated two prominent Lebanese businessmen whose illicit financial activity supports Hizbullah,” Pompeo tweeted. “We will continue to use all the tools at our disposal to counter the threat Hizbullah poses,” he added. Earlier on Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions against three alleged Hizbullah money launderers and financiers, including a diamond trader who collected art. It accused Lebanon-based Nazem Said Ahmad, whose art collection includes works by Pablo Picasso and Andy Warhol, and his companies of helping to launder large sums of money for the group. "Ahmad, who has a vast art collection, is one of Hizbullah's top donors, generating funds through his longstanding ties to the 'blood diamond' trade," it said. A second man based in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Saleh Assi, was sanctioned for laundering money through Ahmad's diamond business and supporting another alleged financier already under sanctions. The U.S. Treasury also slapped sanctions on Lebanon-based accountant Tony Saab, saying he “provided support to Assi.”

Geagea Meets Khoury, Says LF Won’t Be Part of New Govt.
Naharnet/December 14/2019
Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea said on Saturday that his party will not participate in the new government but will take part in the consultations with President Michel Aoun to name a new PM in Baabda on Monday. “The Lebanese Forces will not take part in the new government but we will participate in the binding parliamentary consultations to name a new premier,” Geagea told reporters after a meeting with Ghattas Khoury, adviser to caretaker PM Saad Hariri. On the form of the new government he said: “We support a government of independent specialists because replicating the same government formulas (a national unity government) have proven useless.”“Lebanon needs an emergency government,” he added. For his part, Khoury told reporters: “Parties are seeking a government inclusive of partisans and citizens from the protest movement,” assuring that Hariri is seeking all means to reach a solution. “We are seeking a new stage in which political parties and citizens who took to the streets have a role in the government,” he added. The meeting between the two men came after Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Thursday announced that the FPM will not take part in any techno-political government, calling for a government led by a technocrat and comprising technocrat ministers. Aoun is expected on Monday to begin the binding parliamentary consultations to name who will lead the new government after the resignation of Hariri on October 29, two weeks into the revolt. Lebanon was swept by nationwide protests on October 17 against corruption and mismanagement demanding an overhaul of the political class.

Emadi Says Qatar to 'Stand by' Lebanon during Crisis
Naharnet/December 14/2019
Qatari Finance Minister Ali el-Emadi said on Saturday that his country will stand by Lebanon during its current economic crisis, media reports said. Emadi was quoted as telling a conference in Doha, that “Qatar will stand by Lebanon during crisis,” and that “Lebanon’s economic and financial stability are very important for the Middle East.”Lebanon is passing through an unprecedented economic and financial crisis amid mass protests ongoing since October 17 against the entire political class. Lebanon’s economic crisis is one rooted in years of heavy borrowing and expensive patronage networks run by entrenched political parties.

US sanctions millionaire Hezbollah moneymen as Nasrallah speaks
The National/December 14/2019
US accuses Nazem Said Ahmad of using ill-gotten gains to fund a lavish lifestyle and buy art by Pablo Picasso and Andy Warhol
The same day that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivered a televised address on the crisis in Lebanon and harangued the United States, Washington released fresh sanctions on two of the Iran-backed group’s most ostentatious moneymen.
The pair, one based in Lebanon and the other in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, were listed as money launderers using companies “to generate tens of millions of dollars for Hezbollah, its financiers and their malign activities,” the US Treasury said on Friday.
“These designations underscore the extent to which Hezbollah and its affiliates engage in illicit economic activity that prioritises the terrorist group’s own economic interests over those of the Lebanese people,” the Treasury added.
The statement also said that Washington supports the Lebanese people’s demands to end corruption and terror financing that thrives in corrupt environments as two months of anti-government demonstrations continue on the streets in Lebanon.
The statement named the pair as Lebanon-based diamond dealer Nazem Said Ahmad and DRC-based businessman Saleh Assi. Ahmad was accused of involvement in “blood diamond” smuggling.
Assi’s assets, including 7.95 million euro (Dh 32.5 million), 44.8-metre luxury racing yacht named the Flying Dragon, were also listed as blocked property.
The US alleges that Assi used a network of DRC companies to funnel money to Adham Tabaja, a previously sanctioned Hezbollah money-launderer. Either the money went through bulk cash transfers or through Ahmad’s diamond business, the Treasury said.
“Hezbollah continues to use seemingly legitimate businesses as front companies to raise and launder funds in countries like the DRC where it can use bribery and political connections to secure unfair market access and evade taxes,” said Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
“This Administration will continue to take action against Hezbollah financiers like Nazem Said Ahmad and Saleh Assi, who have used money laundering and tax evasion schemes to fund terrorist plots and finance their own lavish lifestyles as the Lebanese people suffer.”
Washington also said that Ahmad hid his illicit wealth by buying expensive art, building a collection worth tens of millions of dollars that he displayed in his Beirut penthouse.
These included works by Pablo Picasso and Andy Warhol. The US Treasury shared an image of Ahmad sitting in front of a collection of works taken as part of an interview earlier this year with Selections Arts magazine.
In the interview, Ahmad also said he owns works by famed Chinese critic and artist Ai Weiwei as well as graffiti artist Jean-Michel Basquiat.
“In concealing his ill-gotten gains from the Lebanese government, Ahmad has deprived the government and the Lebanese people of much-needed tax revenue while the country faces serious economic challenges,” the statement said.
Deputy Treasury Secretary Justin Muzinich also issued a warning to the art world, saying “art and luxury goods dealers should be on alert to the schemes of money launderers who hide personal funds in high-value assets in an attempt to mitigate the effects of US sanctions.”
A third man, Tony Saab, who works for Assi was also sanctioned for assisting in the transfer millions of dollars from two of his bosses’ companies – Inter Aliment and Minocongo – to Lebanon.
The measures taken by Washington mean it is now illegal for any US company or citizen to do business with any of the listed persons and entities and also blocks all US assets and property or face sanctions of their own.
The measures were announced as Hezbollah’s Nasrallah gave a speech on the situation in Lebanon. He began by criticising the US for statements on the protests, saying that Washington intervenes around the world and had sought to co-opt the movement on the streets from the very beginning.
He said America and Israel were seeking to solve the issues they see in Lebanon through the mass rallies on the streets.
Since October 17, protesters have been demanding a complete change of governance with a new cabinet of experts to set about fixing the dire economic situation, rebuild the country’s crumbling infrastructure and combat corruption.

Back shirts of Hezbollah, Amal and their vassals
Dr. Walid Phares/December 14/2019
Getting many videos from Lebanon about the "brown shirts" (some call them back shirts) of Hezbollah, Amal and their vassals, parading in Beirut to intimidate the protesters. It is colorful, loud and primitive, but it is not going to intimidate the people to the point of ending the uprising.
And the reason is that most Lebanese on the streets have nothing to lose. Those militias are flexing muscles. Every other Lebanese can flex muscles, if they want. But the protesters aren't. They want to continue to be non violent and operate under Lebanese and international laws. If the "militias" cross the line, they will meet popular resistance and international measures. Their choice is to keep parading, and they can do so at will, or cross the line, and leap into the next level.

Resignation of the Lebanese President and all the Top Officials Is A Must
Abu Arz-Etian Saqer/December 13/2019
Due to solid facts related to an ongoing Lebanese governmental crisis that is not going to be solved soon,
And because all tangible circumstances indicate that this promised rescue government will not be formed in the near future
And Since all practical solutions for the imminent financial-monetary-economic-social crisis are technically linked to the governmental crisis.
And Since the general conditions of the country is worsening day by day, and warns of a comprehensive and terrifying collapse.
And since the top official have entirely failed in everything and at all levels,
Therefore, the resignation of the Lebanese President of the Republic, along with all the top officials becomes an inevitable and urgent national necessity.
The available two choices are either an inevitable and immediate resignation, or an inevitable and disastrous comprehensive collapse.
Long Live Our Holy Lebanon'

Attack on Hezbollah critic sheds light on group’s shifting tactics
Ismaeel Naar/Al Arabiya English/December 14/2019
Support has been pouring in for Lokman Slim, a well-known critic of Hezbollah, after he began receiving threats in the form of notes left at his home that “his turn was next.”
Slim’s ordeal began on Tuesday when he and Makram Rabah, an American University in Beirut lecturer, were surrounded by Hezbollah supporters in Martyrs’ Square tent after taking part in a public debate.
The debate on “Neutrality as a strategic concept for the return of prosperity” was being held at a tent event called The Hub in Martyrs’ Square. Organizers said the focus of the forum was regional conflict.
But days before it was held on December 10, Pierre Abi-Saab, an editor with the pro-Hezbollah newspaper al-Akhbar, tweeted for his followers to disrupt the forum claiming that the event centered around the normalization of ties with Israel.
“We know who you are. We know who your backers are. We know your agendas. That is your deception, and this is our reality,” Abi-Saab tweeted four days before the seminar.
Speaking to Al Arabiya’s sister channel Al Hadath live during the incident, Rabah said the disruptors who showed up to the event claimed they were fighting for the Palestinian cause and accused The Hub organizers of being Zionist supporters.
“We not facing protesters, we are facing people who are linked to the pro-Iranian parties who are falsely claiming that our seminar is in defense of staying out of the Arab-Israeli conflict. This is completely false,” Rabah said at the time.
Lebanese activist and political analyst Lokman Slim speaks after the incident at The Hub tent.
Slim, director of Hayya Bina and UMAM, a Lebanese organization that focuses on Shia politics and social dynamics, said it was clear that the organizers had no intention of discussing Israel at the seminar and that pro-Hezbollah supporters were using new tactics to distract critics.
“The new strategy Hezbollah started adopting was when they noticed that their muscular strategy was not working. So, they infiltrated the squares by finally sending their people under pseudo leftists slogans and muscles … mainly under the slogan of fighting Israel. What happened on the evening of 11th was a first expression which then continued the day after when they burned the tent,” Slim said.
The same protesters who disrupted the seminar the night before then returned to the square and burned The Hub’s tent but then also proceeded to burn the neighboring tents belonging to other protesters.
“They then raided the house of my family and my home,” he added. “It is a long standoff which became clear over the last days.”
A day after the incident at Martyr’s Square, Slim received printed papers with threats that read: “One day, you will be the trash of history” and “No peace with agents”.
According to Hanin Ghaddar, a Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington Institute who focuses on Shia politics, the incident in Beirut bears the markings of a shift in Hezbollah’s strategy from using media tactics to physical force to silence its critics.
“Right now, it's beyond the media campaign. I think this is what's really new. It is actually physical attacks. It's not just discrediting them and calling them American spies. It's going after physical attacks in the sense that they actually went ahead and sent people to besiege the tent, the Hub, burning and destroying it and going actually after [Slim’s] home,” Ghaddar said.
The incident came days before Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah gave his first televised address in more than a month when he claimed that the United States was using the protests in Lebanon as a tool to pressure Iran.
According to Ghaddar, Hezbollah tolerates Shia protesters who join the demonstrations against the ruling elite, except when it comes to directly criticizing Hezbollah.
“At the end of the day, they can easily be arrested, targeted and beaten up. And that happened actually in the south many, many times. They went after their families and they went to their homes and interrogated them. So, of course, you get to a point where you decide that your safety and your family is more important than one moment on the street,” Ghaddar said.
“You have a lot of people who joined the protests in Nabatieh, Tyre, Baalbek at the beginning. And it's becoming a nightmare for them,” she added.
Lebanese protesters have come under repeated attacks from pro-Hezbollah and Amal party supporters who have attempted to disrupt protests in Beirut and other cities. Days after the protesters first erupted across Lebanon, demonstrators came under attack in Nabatieh, a Shia town considered a stronghold for the Iranian-backed organization and its allies, from men reportedly from Hezbollah and the associated Amal party, led by Nabih Berri.
For Slim, the Lebanese activist said he has become used to receiving threats since 2008 but that he felt this time it might be different.
“I never considered that I should speak out for myself but what happened over the past 48 hours didn't concern me only, it concerns my family, my mother, my sister, my wife and my colleagues. Therefore, I went public. I felt that's it's my moral duty to speak out and say that enough is enough. If you [Hezbollah] think that your intimidation will keep us from standing up and from being true to our conviction, you are wrong,” he said.

Lebanon turns to World Bank and IMF as country faces economic meltdown
Massoud A Derhally/The National/December 14/2019
The debt-saddled country has $2.5bn of maturing bonds to pay by June 2020
Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister Saad Hariri reached out to the heads of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank as the impasse in on the precipice of an economic meltdown.
Mr Hariri “expressed to [World Bank president David] Malpass and [IMF Managing Director Kristalina] Georgieva his commitment to prepare an urgent rescue plan to address the crisis, while awaiting the formation of a new government capable of implementing it,” a statement from his office said. Mr Hariri also discussed with both organisation heads “technical assistance that both the World Bank and the IMF can provide for the preparation of this plan”. The calls to the organisations came as rating agencies Moody’s and Fitch warned on Thursday of a deterioration in the status of Lebanon’s top banks, which underpin the economic fabric of the country, following instructions by the central bank to reduce interest rates on foreign and local currency deposits.
Moody’s downgraded the standalone Baseline Credit Assessments (BCAs) and Adjusted BCA of Bank Audi, Blom Bank and Byblos Bank to ca from caa2 and said the emergency directive by the central bank “constitutes a deposit default”.
Fitch downgraded Bank Audi and Byblos Bank’s long- and short-term issuer default ratings to restricted default status from CCC- and 'C' respectively. Fitch also downgraded the banks' viability ratings (VR) to f from ccc-. The central bank’s instructions represent “a material reduction in terms compared with the original contractual terms of banks' financial obligations”, Fitch said and meet its definition of a restricted default.
Lebanon is facing its worst financial crisis since the end of a 15-year civil war in 1990. On December 4 the central bank instructed banks to cut interest rates on dollar and Lebanese pound deposits by half. It also put in place a six-month cap of 5 per cent for local currency deposits received on or renewed after December 4. Lebanon has been gripped by nationwide protests for the past two months with citizens demanding reforms and changes in the political system that has governed the country since the end of the last civil war. The protests are the largest the country has seen since the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, which led to Syria withdrawing its troops from Lebanon after a 29-year presence there.
Citizens blame Lebanon’s political elite for widespread corruption and nepotism, which they say contributed to the country accruing $86 billion (Dh315.6bn) of public debt equivalent to 150 per cent of gross domestic product, one of the highest ratios globally.
The crisis has led to the Lebanese pound losing about 20 per cent of its value against the US dollar in the local black market.
In an October 18 interview with The National, Jihad Azour, the director of the Middle East and Central Asia department at the IMF, said the fund would review an aid package proposal to help Lebanon if the country requests it.
The crisis has led to the Lebanese pound losing about 20 per cent of its value against the US dollar in the local black market. An IMF bailout package could devalue the currency and require the strict implementation of delayed structural reforms in tandem with austerity measures that are tied to the disbursement of any funds. Though central bank governor Riad Salameh said in November, there are no plans to impose capital controls or a haircut on depositors, some in the country are calling for a haircut on deposits.
A haircut is a financial term used to describe a devaluation of an asset to provide a cushion to lenders. In 2011 depositors of banks in Cyprus, exposed to the Greek debt crisis, lost as much as 60 per cent of their uninsured deposits on balances of more than €100,000 (Dh408,000). The measure was a requirement at the time for Cyprus to secure a €10bn bailout from the EU.
Lebanon needs to pay $1.2bn due in March when a Eurobond hits maturity. Another $700m are due in April and $600m in June. The crisis has increased the yield on the country’s bonds threefold.
Lebanon’s economy is forecast to slow down to 0.2 per cent this year from 0.3 per cent in 2018 due to increased uncertainty, tightening monetary policy and a contracting real estate sector, according to fund projections.

Analysis/Despite Sanctions and Protests, Israel Knows Trump Still Wants Negotiations With Iran
Amir Tibon and Amos Harel/Haaretz/December 14/2019
آمر تايبون وعاموس هاريل/هآرتس: رغم العقوبات والإحتجاجات إسرائل تدرك أن ترامب لا يزال يريد التفاوض مع إيران
إيران تهدد بتدمير إسرائيل من لبنان، وإسرائيل تحذر إيران من أنها ستغرقها في فيتنام سوريا، في حين أن لبنان الواقع في وسط كل هذه المعمعة ينتظر استخراج البترول والغار من بحره وأرضه وخائف أن يكون هو الضحية
Iran threatens destruction, Israel invokes Vietnam – and one Mideast country fears getting caught in the middle
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/81477/%d8%a2%d9%85%d8%b1-%d8%aa%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%a8%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%88%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b3-%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d8%b1%d8%ba%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d9%82/
U.S. President Donald Trump this week brought back into discussion an idea that had almost completely disappeared in recent months: negotiations with Iran. The option of direct talks between Iran and the U.S., which made headlines around the world over the summer, became less relevant as the U.S., Israel and Iran all experienced internal political dramas.
Over the weekend, however, things changed, after Iran released from prison an American scientist who had been held in the country since 2016. In return, the U.S. released from jail an Iranian citizen who had been indicted on charges of violating the sanctions placed on the Islamic Republic.
“Thank you to Iran on a very fair negotiation,” Trump wrote on his Twitter account, adding enthusiastically: “See, we can make a deal together!” It was the first time since at least October that the president has made any positive statement about the possibility of negotiations with the Iranians over a comprehensive deal that will include the country’s nuclear program.
Just four days before that tweet, the Wall Street Journal, basing its story on sources within the Trump administration, reported that the president was considering a deployment of as many as 14,000 U.S. troops to the Middle East to “confront” Iran. The report was officially denied by the Pentagon, and Trump also called it “fake news,” but Congressional sources later confirmed that the option of sending many more troops to the region has indeed been discussed.
U.S. policy in the Middle East under Trump continues to be confusing, unstable and impossible to predict, moving swiftly from threatening a military confrontation on Wednesday to asking for negotiations on Saturday. These constant changes create a continuing challenge for Middle East governments, including Israel, as they try to understand in which direction the administration is heading.
The difficulty of anticipating the moves of the White House seemed to grow after the previous Israeli election in September, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump had no direct communication between them for more than a month. At the time, analysts in Israel interpreted this as a sign that Trump was disappointed with Netanyahu’s second failure in a row to win the election, which ended in a tie. Trump, some in the Israeli media said, wanted to distance himself from someone perceived as a “loser.”
Yet in November, the two leaders resumed their communications. They spoke twice on the phone in recent weeks, and in early December Netanyahu also flew to Portugal for a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. A source involved in the communications between the two leaders told Haaretz that in fact, there was no distance between them after the election, and at the same time, the recent conversations should not be interpreted as a sign of the relationship getting warmer or closer than it had already been.
According to this explanation, Netanyahu does not think he should initiate a phone call with Trump unless he has a very specific request to make to the president, or a pressing issue to discuss with him.
Trump, after all, is busy with his own troubles in recent months, starting with the impeachment process in Congress, and he devotes much of his time to watching television and fighting with critics on Twitter.
In their first conversation last month, Netanyahu mainly wanted to thank Trump for the administration’s decision to no longer consider settlements illegal under international law – a decision that came at an important political juncture in Israel and helped Netanyahu politically. (The White House denied this was the main motivation behind it.)
The more important call between the two leaders happened 10 days ago, and it focused on Iran. Netanyahu asked Trump to further increase U.S. pressure on Tehran, following the wave of demonstrations in the Islamic Republic. Overall, Israel has been pleased with the U.S. pressure on Iran for the past two years, but there is still a concern in Jerusalem that Trump could avidly renew his “courting” of Iran in the hope of securing a meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rohani.
The concern in Israel’s political and security establishments isn’t about a new comprehensive deal between Iran and the U.S. – everyone assumes this is not a real possibility. Iran will never agree to the conditions the Trump administration has set for a new agreement, and Trump will not give up on those demands before the 2020 presidential election, in which he will rely for his survival on the support of Christian evangelicals, a constituency that hates and is suspicious of the Islamic Republic.
Israeli officials have nevertheless warned the administration that the very act of holding a public meeting between Trump and Rohani would by itself decrease the pressure on Tehran. The Israeli argument is that the American pressure on Iran is succeeding not only because of the economic sanctions, but also because of a sense in the international community and the business world that Iran has no way out of the pressure campaign, except for surrendering to the American demands. A meeting between the two leaders, even if it’s essentially nothing but a “photo opportunity,” will send the opposite message: that the American pressure is temporary and will eventually be lifted.
“Right now,” said one Israeli official, “it feels like every week the Americans hit Iran with a new hammer.” A meeting between Trump and Rohani would run counter to that notion.
In September, when a meeting with Rohani was seen as likely thanks to the efforts of French President Emmanuel Macron, foreign companies that were already planning to leave Iran, were suddenly reevaluating. Israel’s ambassador to Washington, Ron Dermer, argued at the time in conversations with U.S. officials that a meeting with Rohani would immediately hurt the psychological element of the pressure campaign against Iran, and would also give the Iranian regime an opportunity to present an optimistic horizon to the Iranian public, despite the difficult economic situation in the country.
Pompeo and other officials in the administration seem to understand the Israeli argument, but Trump himself has not been convinced. Trump was truly willing over the summer to meet or talk on the phone with Rohani without any preconditions, as he stated. Eventually it was the Iranian side that refused to hold a meeting or a call without some kind of American gesture taking place beforehand.
At the same time, there was another source of tension over the summer between the U.S. and Israel: The Americans were angry over a series of aerial strikes in Iraq that were attributed to Israel, and that, according to foreign media, targeted mostly militias and convoys supported by Iran. The Americans were concerned that these attacks, which Israel never officially took responsibility for, will lead to acts of revenge carried out against American troops stationed in Iraq.
At the end of August the Pentagon published a statement supporting Iraq’s sovereignty and distancing the U.S. from the attacks, at the same time that Iraq was officially blaming Israel for the air strikes.
The Pentagon’s statement was the only public expression of the tensions surrounding this issue. The American side was worried about a wide range of options, from revenge attacks to an official request by the Iraqi government to remove all U.S. troops from the country.
Eventually, it seems, that American position on this issue had an impact: Since September, there have been no more reports of mysterious and unexplained attacks on Iraqi territory.
PM’s day-to-day strategy
During the course of the abortive negotiations between Kahol Lavan and Likud, to establish a unity government, various explanations were offered to explain Netanyahu’s insistence on serving as the first prime minister in a rotation, and on having that stint last at least six months. Likud kept peddling new strategic achievements that Netanyahu wanted to promote, by his lights – a strategic alliance with the United States, annexation of the Jordan Valley and even, this week, annexation of the West Bank.
There were also whispers of a different speculation: Netanyahu will use the additional period to realize his greatest aspiration: an Israeli attack that, once and for all, will stop the Iranian nuclear plan. Trump, or so it was said, would accept such a move because it would boost his standing among the evangelicals ahead of the presidential election next November.
It seems this theory has no basis at the moment. Netanyahu never implemented attack plans even during the periods he discussed them with the utmost seriousness, every summer from 2010 to 2013. The prime minister also knows that he would encounter objections from the defense leadership and that his decision, as someone who will shortly go on trial in three serious affairs, would not win much public trust.
As for Trump, despite his unstable approach, he has already made clear his relatively reasoned opposition to a war in the Middle East.
Therefore, it is more reasonable to assume that what we see is simply what is happening: Netanyahu is acting without an orderly plan, in the hope of surviving another day and delaying the finale, in the form of the start of his criminal trial. To this end, he keeps tossing new balls, new justifications, into the air. The main hope that remains to him is a victory in the next election in March, but at the moment this seems like an unrealistic aspiration because it isn’t clear from where the rightist bloc will garner the additional votes.
This week, top Iranians once again threatened to destroy Israel. Possibly these declarations came in response to statements by Defense Minister Naftali Bennett, who called for ejecting the Iranian forces from Syria, threatened to turn Syria into Iran’s Vietnam and warned of possible attempts on the lives of Iranian leaders.
The Iranian statement, as articulated by a Revolutionary Guard general, touched a raw nerve in Beirut, because the general threatened to flatten Tel Aviv by means of launching rockets from Lebanon. The Lebanese defense minister protested that Tehran is involving his country in its conflict with Israel.
The Lebanese sensitivity is also greater because of the intention there to begin a search for natural gas offshore in its territorial waters in the Mediterranean, close to the maritime boundary with Israel. Former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot said this week in a discussion at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies that success in the search for natural gas could help relieve the tension in the north.
According to Eisenkot, finding gas would make it difficult for Hezbollah to heat up the front against Israel because the other forces in Lebanon would fear that a war would hinder economic development. (The Lebanese economy is currently in deep trouble, which was part of the background to the extensive wave of demonstrations against the government and against the influence of Iran and Hezbollah.)

As Lebanon's post-war system dies, a new one struggles to be born
Timour Azhari/Al Jazeera/December 15/2019
Uprising could bring the death of Lebanese political system where power is shared among religious groups, analysts say.
Beirut, Lebanon - For almost two months, Lebanon has been swept by protests against a ruling class of sectarian elites who came to power as a result of a 15-year civil war that ended in 1990.
The movement has brought down a government and brought together people from across the country's religious divides.
Now, analysts say that the uprising, coupled with the most serious economic and financial crisis since the civil war, maybe ushering in the death of the country's political system where power is apportioned among religious groups.
"This system is clearly over," Sami Atallah, the director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, told Al Jazeera. "Economically and politically it is very clearly the end of an era. But we have yet to produce another one: we have left Lebanon 2.0 but don't have Lebanon 3.0 yet."
For Atallah, the economic and financial crisis in Lebanon today has become the clearest indicator yet of the incompetence and corruption of the political elite, in a country where basic services such as electricity and water are still unreliable 30 years after the civil war ended.
Decades of unsustainable financial policies, coupled with unchecked, unaccountable spending, have left Lebanon with the world's third-highest debt burden as a percentage of its gross domestic product (GDP). The country has increasingly had to borrow new money to pay back old debt, leading it into a debt spiral.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese pound, pegged to the US dollar for decades at about 1,500, has depreciated by about 25 percent to 2,000 Lebanese pounds, due to a dollar shortage tied to a years-long economic slowdown and a decrease in remittances from abroad.
When the government sought to impose more taxes in October, people took to the streets in an explosion of popular anger.
'Lost faith'
This has led parties that were previously in government together to become increasingly at odds, exposing and exacerbating existing divisions and creating new ones.
"The entire political establishment, which is endemically corrupt, is responsible for the impoverishment of Lebanon," Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, told Al Jazeera. "The leaders are trying to dissociate themselves from the bankruptcy of Lebanon and are blaming one another without naming a culprit.""They are facing the moment of truth because the vast majority of the Lebanese people have lost faith in them," Khashan added.
Atallah concurs that the protests "broke something".
But "materialising this breakdown or changing of alliances into something more material is another ball game". "We're at the end of the first phase, but how do you actually make something new," Khashan asked.
Crisis
Lebanese politics is notoriously fractious, with parties quickly shifting alliances based on interest rather than ideology. But the scale of the splits since the eruption of the uprising points to a moment of severe crisis, Atallah said.
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri's allies in the Lebanese Forces and Progressive Socialist Party have said they will sit out the next government even if it is headed by Hariri, with the latter saying it was going through a period of soul-searching and wants to return to its former socialist values.
Hariri has sought to take the side of the protesters, calling for the formation of a government of technocrats or specialists, albeit headed by himself, which many protesters have rejected.
"Hariri is opportunistic. His late father originated the financial crisis by heavy borrowing. Saad Hariri is hardly a reformer," Khashan said.
Hariri's father, Rafik Hariri, was a former prime minister who was assassinated in 2005.
Despite being brought to power by an alliance with the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), a powerful Christian party headed by caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, Saad Hariri has sought to exclude Bassil, who is perhaps the most reviled figure on the street.
Bassil recently responded by saying that his party would sit out the next government if it was a government of experts and politicians headed by Hariri, effectively breaking his alliance with the caretaker prime minister.
Bassil also explicitly noted he disagreed with his ally Hezbollah, which has backed Hariri.
Hezbollah has sought to maintain the pre-uprising status quo. In a speech on Friday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called for a government of the "widest possible representation", similar to the one protesters brought down, that includes the FPM and is headed either by Hariri or a person the caretaker PM backs.
Nasrallah "is trying to preserve a system that he has learned how to operate in since 2005", Atallah said. "He's holding onto a system that is largely defunct."
As a result, Hezbollah is now the main backer of its nominal political foe, Hariri, whose father the group has been accused of assassinating.
'Masks are falling down'
MP Paula Yacoubian, the only legislator to be elected on an independent list in 2018 polls, said she believed that the Lebanese people would no longer accept a political system where "politicians disagree with each other and then make up later when they've settled their deals, all while the country loses".
"Masks are falling down. What happened with the revolution uncovered the deep understanding between the ruling class. It showed how each side is somehow dependent on the other sectarian leader," she said.
"I think the mindset of the people is changing, their political approach is changing, they realise the high price they paid to sustain these leaderships," she added. "It's a price on their lives and basic needs that they are no longer able to pay."
In recent months there have been warnings of shortages of medicine, fuel, wheat and other basic goods. Yacoubian sees the worsening crisis spurring on the uprising in the streets, which she said may soon become a "revolution of the poor and unemployed".
Whether such uprising can bury the sectarian system and erect something new remains to be seen. Atallah said that elections, whenever they are held, would be a crucial indicator. But in any case, he does not see the relationship between people and politics returning to how it was before October 17, when protests broke out.
"The ground has been shaken. All parties are trying to use these protests to their advantage, but I think people see through this. Their credibility is more dismal than ever before," he said.

Both the US and Iran are determined to avoid war – for now
Raghida Dergham/The National/December 14/2019
The Trump administration continues to put 'maximum pressure' on Tehran with more sanctions on its proxies in the region
The Arab countries whose fates depend on the mood of the authorities in Iran and Turkey will continue to suffer until Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces a reckoning for his failed adventurism in the Middle East, and the regime in Tehran adopts real reforms.
The US Congress has slapped sanctions on Ankara for securing a deal for the S-400 air defence system with Russia despite Turkey being a member of Nato. Congress also unanimously recognised the Armenian genocide by the Ottoman Empire more than a hundred years ago, which infuriated Mr Erdogan – particularly since US President Donald Trump himself turned a blind eye to it. The Trump administration is also relatively at ease, as its “maximum pressure” policy has resulted in an economic crisis for Iran and its proxies.
However, the US could yet be dragged into a military confrontation with Iran, a prospect that haunts Mr Trump as he does not want to be involved in a war so close to his tough re-election battle next year. He is still seeking negotiations for a new nuclear deal with Tehran that includes a curb on its ballistic missile programme, not considered in the 2015 agreement signed by predecessor Barack Obama. He also hopes the deal will keep Iranian expansionism into Arab countries – specifically Iraq, Syria and Lebanon – in check. The three countries are essentially bargaining chips Iran could use to negotiate when the time comes but the problem for the regime is that they are all facing internal unrest, which threatens to overturn its gains. Meanwhile, suppressing the protests in these countries could backfire and further weaken it.
Unless a major incident occurs before the end of the year, therefore, the US-Iranian relationship will continue to be determined by a mutual desire to avoid war.
Brian Hook, the US official in charge of the Iranian dossier, has said that if Tehran attacks US interests, his country would respond militarily. Washington’s primary concern is its interests in Iraq, where it is most vulnerable if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets its troops stationed there – although such a decision can be made only by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations, Mr Hook said Iran must either enter negotiations or see its economy collapse, emphasising the effectiveness of the sanctions, which he said have led to a significant reduction in its oil exports.
Concerning the possibility of Iranian military action, Mr Hook’s tone was sharp and clear: “It would be a very big mistake for the regime to make a miscalculation about our resolve.” One US military official said Iranian-backed militias are getting close to a red line but affirmed they would respond forcefully if they crossed it.
Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian president, has said his government is determined to overcome sanctions through various means, including talks. But Lt Gen Hossein Salami, general commander of the IRGC, has threatened “the Americans and their lackeys” with a “strong blow”. While speaking about the unrest in Iran, he went further afield, saying: “The enemies must realise if they don’t stop stirring sedition then the Iranian people will put their interests in the region at risk.”
Through its mission to Iraq, the United Nations has accused “armed entities, militias, outlaws, and unknown third parties” of standing behind the recent wave of killings, kidnappings and arbitrary detentions in the country. At the same time, there is increasing talk of the responsibility of pro-Iranian armed factions integrated into the Iraqi security forces. This organised chaos is very dangerous and Iraq has become a ticking time bomb at the hands of the IRGC. The world is watching, though, and the US is vigilant.
The US is also pressing ahead with its policy of sanctioning Iranian interests in Syria. The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which imposes new sanctions on Bashar Al Assad, the Syrian president, his regime, its allies and those financing it, has received unanimous support from Congress. The act, which awaits the president’s signature, will also give secretary of state Mike Pompeo the power to gather evidence against those who have committed crimes against humanity in Syria to pave the way for holding them accountable. Interestingly, the act will impose sanctions on foreign individuals who materially support the regime and those who may participate in reconstruction projects involving the regime. This means that the Lebanese who are anxious to do business with the regime must think twice now.
In Lebanon, the IRGC’s overconfidence in its ability to contain the revolt has hit a stumbling block, given the reality of the situation in the country and the international scrutiny of its objectives and actions there. According to one observer, “the internal pains in Lebanon will extinguish the calls to emulate the Vilayat-e Faqih system [which transfers all political and religious authority to the Shia clergy]”.
Next week David Hale, the US under secretary of state for political affairs, will visit Beirut, carrying a strong message to Lebanon’s officials. He will say that the time for them to address the country’s problems has come, even as the people are demanding the prosecution of officials for corruption, as well as the restoration of looted funds. Interestingly, the Swiss parliament has given Lebanon the right to access data regarding bank accounts in the country, paving the way for restoring these funds.
In short, Iran is growing weaker, more fragmented and isolated. It is still using its regional cards with a sense of arrogance. It is ignoring the other option it has – of reforming the logic of the regime, which says it has the right to spawn loyal militias in sovereign countries in complete disregard of their people’s demands and self-determination. If only it had the wisdom to adjust its behaviour, it would become a influential nation in the region without having to expand beyond its borders.
*Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 14-15/2019
Turkish leader and UAE emir face off over the Palestinian succession race
DEBKAfile/December 14/2019
By offering a 10m lira ($1.7) reward for the capture of exiled Palestinian politician Mohammad Dahlan, Turkish President Recep Erdogan stepped into the race rumbling through Ramallah for the successor to Mahmoud Abbas, 83, Chairman of the Palestinian Authority. On Friday, Dec. 13, Dahlan, a longtime rival of Abbas (Abu Mazen), was added to Turkey’s “red list” of most wanted terrorists.
Abu Mazen is showing no sign of stepping down. Still, the contenders for his crown are constantly maneuvering for position to jump in when it’s time.
Erdogan, who has visions of resurrecting an empire in the Arab world, has deployed his army in three countries, Syria, Libya and Qatar. He sees a promising opening in Ramallah for sinking his hooks in the Palestinian leadership front as well as a chance to get at Israel.
Why now? DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report the catalyst as being intervention in the Palestinian contest by the UAE leader Sheikh Muhammed bin Ziyad (MbZ). While the Qatari funds streaming month by month to Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip are common knowledge, UAE has quietly begun oiling wheels in the Palestinian seat of government in Ramallah. Dahlan is his bagman, which is why Erdogan has targeted him.
Dahlan, 58, has played many roles for different masters. He served Yasser Arafat as Gaza Strip strongman during more than one campaign of terror against Israel, while at the same time developing Israeli and American contacts by foiling some of his master’s terrorist operations. He then served Arafat’s successor, Mahmoud Abbas – first in 2003 as PA interior minister in charge of security and then, in 2005, as minister in charge of coordinating Palestinian steps during Israel’s disengagement from the Gaza Strip.
But then, in 2010, he had a major falling out with Abbas, who accused him of conspiring to undermine him. In 2012, he was exiled from Ramallah to Jordan, followed by a Palestinian court’s warrant for his arrest on charges of stealing PA funds. Thereafter, he divided his address and business operations between Abu Dhabi, Vienna and Montenegro, moving on to Belgrade.
Dahlan’s attempts to reestablish his power base in the Gaza Strip, where he still has many supporters, were cut short by the Hamas rulers. In the last few weeks, he turned his attention to the West Bank, funneling hundreds of thousands of dollars to the Tanzim faction of the ruling Fatah. Our sources report that he has spread his largess among local Tanzim chiefs in 12 Palestinian refugee camps, including Shuafat in Jerusalem, Dehaisha outside Bethlehem, Qalandia, north of Jerusalem, Balata in Nablus and a camp in Jenin. The distribution of these funds is handled by Qadoura Fares, one of the Fatah leaders and head of the Palestinian Convicts’ Club. He has strong backing in Jenin which he transferred to Dahlan.
Dahlan’s immediate objective is believed to be to curtail the drive for control of the PA’s power centers by the front runners to succeed Abu Mazen – Mahmoud Al-Aloul, Tewfiq Tirawi, and Jibril Rajoub – before the job becomes available, and in case a Palestinian election takes place for the first time in 12 years.
Erdogan and the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim Ben Hamad Al-Thani, have come to a deal that serves both their objectives. The Turkish president’s wants a strong hand in the Palestinian political leadership race, while the Qatari emir seeks to frustrate the plans of his rival the UAE in Ramallah. So while Qatar takes care of the Gaza Strip, Ankara has undertaken to thwart Dahlan’s designs in Ramallah.
Ex-Sudan Strongman al-Bashir Gets 2 Years for Corruption
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 14/2019
A court in Sudan convicted former President Omar al-Bashir of money laundering and corruption on Saturday, sentencing him to two years in a rehabilitation facility. That's the first verdict in a series of legal proceedings against al-Bashir, who is also wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes and genocide linked to the Darfur conflict in the 2000s. The verdict came a year after Sudanese protesters first began their revolt against al-Bashir's authoritarian rule. During his three decades in power, Sudan landed on the U.S. list for sponsoring terrorism, and the economy has been battered by years of mismanagement and American sanctions. Before the verdict was read, supporters of al-Bashir briefly disrupted the proceedings and were pushed out of the courtroom by security forces. Al-Bashir, 75, has been in custody since April, when Sudan's military stepped in and removed him from power after months of nationwide protests. The uprising eventually forced the military into a power-sharing agreement with civilians. The former strongman was charged earlier this year with money laundering, after millions of U.S. dollars, euros and Sudanese pounds were seized in his home shortly after his ouster. The Sudanese military has said it would not extradite him to the ICC. The country's military-civilian transitional government has so far not indicated whether they will hand him over to the The Hague. The corruption trial is separate from charges against al-Bashir regarding the killing of protesters during the uprising. Anti-government demonstrations initially erupted last December over steep price rises and shortages, but soon shifted to calls for al-Bashir to step down. Security forces responded with a fierce crackdown that killed dozens of protesters in the months prior his ouster.
The verdict, which capped monthslong trial, could be appealed before a higher court. In August, al-Bashir told the court that he received through his office manager $25 million from Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.
He said the crown prince did not want to reveal that he was the source of the funds, so he did not deposit the money in the country's central bank. He said the money was being used for donations not for his own benefit. At least $2 million dollars went to a military hospital and $3 million to a Sudanese university, he said. Al-Bashir said $5 million was given to the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary unit that grew out of the feared Janjaweed militias unleashed during the Darfur conflict in the 2000s. The RSF is led by Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, who is also a member of the newly appointed Sovereign Council that is to rule Sudan during a three-year transition. Protesters accuse the RSF of leading the crackdown against them that started with the brutal break-up of their sit-in camp in Khartoum earlier in June. Al-Bashir did not provide documents or records for the spending.

Iraqi supporters of pro-Iran group protest US sanctions
AFP, Baghdad/Saturday, 14 December 2019
Several thousand supporters of one of the most powerful pro-Iranian armed groups in Iraq marched through Baghdad on Saturday, trampling on giant US flags after Washington slapped sanctions on their leader. The international community has condemned the role of pro-Iranian factions in a crackdown on two months of protests in which nearly 460 people have been killed and 25,000 wounded. Last week Washington imposed sanctions on three Iraqis including Qais al-Khazali - who heads Asaib Ahl al-Haq, part of the Hashed al-Shaabi security force tied to the Iraqi state - and his brother.
The US Treasury accused his group of “widespread forced disappearances, abductions, killings, and torture.” The measures block financial transactions with and travel to the US for people who commit human rights abuses or corruption. Khazali has laughed off the sanctions as an “honor.”His supporters blocked major roads in the capital on Saturday, staging mock hangings using effigies of US President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mohammed bin Salman, crown prince of Iran’s arch-rival Saudi Arabia. “We denounce the unjust decision” to punish Khazali, said Mahmoud al-Rubaye, a member of Asaib Ahl al-Haq’s political wing.

Turkish official says EU should boost funding of Syrian refugees
Reuters, Istanbul/Saturday, 14 December 2019
The European Union should spend more than the 6 billion euros ($6.6 billion) already allotted to fund Syrian refugees in Turkey, and speed up the flow of that money, a Turkish foreign ministry’s official said on Saturday. EU funds support the roughly 3.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, after Syria’s more than eight year war killed hundreds of thousands and pushed millions from their homes. In turn, Turkey has agreed to halt further immigration to Europe. “The flow of funds should be sped up and the amount of funding should be increased,” said Faruk Kaymakci, a deputy Turkish minister of foreign affairs. “As long as the crisis is there we have to work together. The 6 billion euros will not solve the problem when it is finally all spent,” Kaymakci told reporters in Istanbul. The EU, which set up the funding in 2015, says more than 5.6 billion euros have been allocated, more than 3.5 billion contracted and more than 2.4 billion disbursed. Kaymakci said hosting the refugees costs Turkey some $40 billion in total. Europe’s relations with Turkey are strained on several fronts including disagreement over a Turkish military offensive in October against a Kurdish militia in northeast Syria. Turkey in late October threatened to “open the gates” to allow refugees into Europe unless Europeans back its plan to resettle them in northeast Syria.

Ex-Sudan Strongman al-Bashir Gets 2 Years for Corruption
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 14/2019
A court in Sudan convicted former President Omar al-Bashir of money laundering and corruption on Saturday, sentencing him to two years in a rehabilitation facility. That's the first verdict in a series of legal proceedings against al-Bashir, who is also wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes and genocide linked to the Darfur conflict in the 2000s. The verdict came a year after Sudanese protesters first began their revolt against al-Bashir's authoritarian rule. During his three decades in power, Sudan landed on the U.S. list for sponsoring terrorism, and the economy has been battered by years of mismanagement and American sanctions. Before the verdict was read, supporters of al-Bashir briefly disrupted the proceedings and were pushed out of the courtroom by security forces. Al-Bashir, 75, has been in custody since April, when Sudan's military stepped in and removed him from power after months of nationwide protests. The uprising eventually forced the military into a power-sharing agreement with civilians. The former strongman was charged earlier this year with money laundering, after millions of U.S. dollars, euros and Sudanese pounds were seized in his home shortly after his ouster. The Sudanese military has said it would not extradite him to the ICC. The country's military-civilian transitional government has so far not indicated whether they will hand him over to the The Hague. The corruption trial is separate from charges against al-Bashir regarding the killing of protesters during the uprising. Anti-government demonstrations initially erupted last December over steep price rises and shortages, but soon shifted to calls for al-Bashir to step down. Security forces responded with a fierce crackdown that killed dozens of protesters in the months prior his ouster.
The verdict, which capped monthslong trial, could be appealed before a higher court. In August, al-Bashir told the court that he received through his office manager $25 million from Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. He said the crown prince did not want to reveal that he was the source of the funds, so he did not deposit the money in the country's central bank. He said the money was being used for donations not for his own benefit. At least $2 million dollars went to a military hospital and $3 million to a Sudanese university, he said. Al-Bashir said $5 million was given to the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary unit that grew out of the feared Janjaweed militias unleashed during the Darfur conflict in the 2000s. The RSF is led by Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, who is also a member of the newly appointed Sovereign Council that is to rule Sudan during a three-year transition.
Protesters accuse the RSF of leading the crackdown against them that started with the brutal break-up of their sit-in camp in Khartoum earlier in June. Al-Bashir did not provide documents or records for the spending.

Turkey Increases Reward for Info on Dahlan to $1.7 Million
Ankara - Saeed Abdelrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 14 December, 2019
Turkey added head of Fatah’s Democratic Reform Current Mohammed Dahlan on its “red list” of most-wanted terrorists, offering a reward of $1.75 million for information leading to his capture, the Interior Ministry has announced. The ministry said in a statement Friday that it had updated its “red”, “orange”, and “gray” lists of wanted terrorists, doubling the reward for anyone who would provide information on Dahlan. Ankara accuses Dahlan of being involved in the failed coup attempt of July 15, 2016, among four other officials who have been added to the red list. The authorities also added three names to the orange and two to the gray list. The statement indicated that the Turkish judicial authorities issued an arrest warrant for Dahlan on several charges, including forcibly attempting to change the constitutional order, exposing state secrets for espionage purposes, obtaining state secrets for political or military espionage, revealing secret information related to state’s security or political interest, and international espionage. The ministry classified the most-wanted list into five categories - the most dangerous being red, followed by blue, green, then orange, and finally the gray list.
The lists often include the names of wanted persons because of their affiliations with leftist and separatist terrorist organizations, and others that exploit religion, in addition to Hizmet movement of Fethullah Gulen, whom Ankara accuses of masterminding the failed coup attempt.
Hizmet has been declared “an armed terrorist organization.”

Iraq: Sudani Close to Leading Interim Government
Baghdad- Hamza Mustafa/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 14 December, 2019
The most likely candidate to head the interim government in Iraq, Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, resigned from Dawa Party and State of Law Coalition led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. He later announced he’s not a candidate of any party and belongs to Iraq first and foremost. MP Sudani was named last year as one of the candidates to succeed former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi before political forces agreed on the outgoing Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi. The competition during the last two days was between Sudani and intelligence chief Moustafa al-Kazemi before it was almost settled on the former, according to a political source with knowledge of the matter. The source, who preferred to remain anonymous, told Asharq Al-Awsat that President Barham Saleh will issue next Monday, one day before the constitutional deadline, a decree officially assigning Sudani as Prime Minister. Sudani will be named without any major objection from the rest of the Shiite blocs or other components, especially the Sunnis and the Kurds. Meanwhile, Najaf’s Supreme Religious Authority called on the political forces to confront what it called “the battle of reform” as the biggest challenge they will face in the future.
The Authority did not address recent political developments, whether choosing a prime minister or the electoral law legislation, however, it strongly condemned recent crimes that targeted demonstrators in al-Khilani Square in Baghdad, as well as al-Wathba crime. Ahmed al-Safi, representative of the Supreme Authority Ali al-Sistani, said during his Friday sermon in Karbala, that the battle of reform is long and requires a lot of work to end the long era of corruption and failure in running the country. Sistani urged concerned parties to uncover people responsible for the crimes and bring them to justice, calling for an urgent investigation into the “horrific crimes.”Sistani said that all weapons should be brought “under the control of the state,” asserting that the judicial system should remain the reference in prosecuting anyone. The Religious Authority reiterated that all weapons should be brought “under the control of the state” in light of all recent incidents, assassinations, and kidnappings. He warned against foreign interference in Iraq, urging state security forces to be loyal to the nation. The Authority also addressed victory over ISIS and stressed the need to build “the army, and Iraq’s other armed forces, on solid professional foundations, so that they are loyal to the homeland and can counter external aggression.”He also called for reconstructing liberated areas and improving living conditions in them to enable displaced people to return with dignity.
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Anbar MP Mohammad al-Karbouli noted that the Religious Authority sent a clear message regarding the liberated areas, whether in terms of the necessity of rebuilding them or bringing the displaced back to their homes.
Karbouli added that the issue of the disappeared and the kidnapped, as well as the issue of the displaced and obstacles facing the reconstruction operations could lead to instability in the country.
The MP explained that the Sunni community suffered greatly after 2003, in terms of marginalization, exclusion, and prosecutions.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 14-15/2019
Behind the Lines: The riddles of Baghdad
Jonathan Sper/Jerusalem Post/December 14/2019
There were no casualties in either attack. They were the latest in a string of similar incidents which have taken place on US facilities in Iraq since the beginning of the year.
Who is killing Iraqi demonstrators and who is firing at US bases?
Last week, five rockets were fired at the Ain al-Asad airbase in Iraq’s Anbar province. The base is a facility housing US troops. Ain al-Asad is something of a symbol for the 5,000-strong US presence in Iraq. President Trump visited the base last year, spending the day after Christmas with troops stationed there. Vice President Mike Pence was also there in late November, for Thanksgiving.
Two days later, Katyusha rockets were fired at the Balad airbase, 70 kilometers north of Baghdad. Again, this is a base where US forces and contractors are stationed.
There were no casualties in either attack. They were the latest in a string of similar incidents which have taken place on US facilities in Iraq since the beginning of the year.
These attacks have a number of things in common, other than that they are directed at US personnel and facilities: they appear to be intended for now to send a message rather than to cause injuries or fatalities among US troops. They are also notable in that no force or organization has taken responsibility for them.
The attacks are taking place in the context of continued unrest and security chaos in Iraq. Unlike in Iran, the demonstrations and protests in Iraq have not been crushed as yet by the actions of the security forces. Unlike in Lebanon, the number of participants has not declined. Rather, the protests in Baghdad and elsewhere are continuing at white heat. The resignation last week of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has not stemmed the energy of the protesters, who are demanding the resignation of the entire government, new elections and the overhaul of the country’s political system.
The efforts by the authorities to crush the protests are also intensifying. On December 8, over 25 people were killed and more than 130 wounded when gunmen opened fire on demonstrators near the main protest camp at Tahrir Square in Baghdad.
More than 400 Iraqis have been killed and thousands more wounded since the protests began in early October. On Sunday, the violence erupted when armed men on pickup trucks attacked a building near the Sinak bridge occupied by the protesters. The building was torched and the attackers opened fire with live ammunition as the demonstrators fled the building.
The attack came a day after a series of mysterious stabbings left a number of protesters in Tahrir Square seriously wounded.
Like the attacks on Ain al-Asad and the other US bases, the killings of the demonstrators have been claimed by no organization. The Iraqi authorities in official statements on these incidents persist in a somewhat surreal claim that the killings are being committed by an unknown “third force” unconnected to the authorities.
An Arabic-language statement by Brig.-Gen. Yahya Rasool, spokesman of the Iraqi security forces’ Joint Operations Command, issued shortly after the beginning of the demonstrations and quoted in a recent article in Jane’s Intelligence Review, read that “there are no orders to use violence against demonstrators. The security forces are protecting demonstrators and property from ‘mundisun,’ who are trying to destroy the country.” On the same day, Iraqi Ministry of Defense Spokesman Tahseen al-Khafaji stated that “mundisun have opened fire on demonstrators and Iraqi security forces.”
Who or what is a “mundis”? This Arabic term has no precise translation, but is usually used to mean a “provocateur.” Its use is associated with authoritarian regimes who seek to divert attention from their own repression by use of conspiracy theories. As such, it is a term of ridicule for many reform-minded people in the Arab world.
So if the aforementioned, mysterious “mundisun” don’t really exist, who is killing demonstrators in Baghdad, and who is firing rockets at US bases? Might the two sets of perpetrators be connected, and what explains the reticence of both the Iraqi authorities and the US to identify those responsible?
ACTUALLY, THE answer is very clear. The riddle is why it has taken so long for the facts to be acknowledged in both Baghdad and Washington.
The evidence suggests that in both cases, the perpetrators are the Iran-backed Shia militias who today constitute the strongest and most potent political and paramilitary force in the country.
With regard to the attacks on US bases, the indications have been plain throughout the year that with the ISIS threat now set back, the Shia militias have been gearing up to seek to expel the US presence from Iraq.
As far back as February 2, Iraqi security forces found and defused three missiles that had been set on a timer to be launched at the al-Asad base. The missiles were defused 15 minutes before they were set to launch.
On February 4, Ja’afar Husseini, spokesman of Ktaeb Hezbollah, one of the most powerful of the Shia militias, warned that clashes between the militias and the US “may start at any moment.” This was the second such warning issued by the movement. “There is no stable Iraq with the presence of the Americans,” Husseini declared.
His words were echoed by Qais al-Khazali, leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, who similarly declared that Iraq’s security forces and “strong society” could easily expel the US service members currently deployed in Iraq.
It now appears that the tempo of attacks has continued and increased, while failing to attract wide media attention. According to a report in Bloomberg on December 7, no less than eight separate attacks have taken place on Iraqi facilities hosting US troops in the last five weeks.
The sophistication of the attacks, the munitions used, and the target all point to the Iran-backed militias. US patience is evidently now growing thin. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker, speaking at a briefing in Washington on December 6, said with regard to the Balad and al-Asad attacks that “if past is prologue, I’d say there’s a good chance it was Iran that’s behind it.” The US Treasury Department has now blacklisted Qais and Laith al-Khazali, leaders of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Hussein al-Lami, security chief for the Popular Mobilization Forces.
Similarly, with regard to the actions against the demonstrators, there has been ample testimony from the very start that the gunmen firing at demonstrators were from the militias, and not some mythical “third force.”
As one demonstrator told Iraqi reporter Kareem Botane as early as October 6, just five days after the protests began: “The government has changed its tactics, withdrawing its forces and bringing in other forces that belong to certain militias of the PMU [Popular Mobilization Units] – Khorasani and al-Nujaba [pro-Iranian PMU-affiliated militias]. According to information I got from emergency forces and police, they started with 300 people and these were deployed at the top of buildings – they were all snipers.”
SO IF it has been clear from the start that the Iran-backed militias were almost certainly responsible both for attacks on bases hosting US troops and for the slaughter of demonstrators, what is the reason for the reticence of both Iraqi and (until recently) US officials?
The answer is that once the violent activities of a particular party are identified, logic holds that there may need to be a response. But the Iraqi political class is itself either on the side of the Iran-backed militias, or terrified of risking renewed civil war by confronting them.
The US, meanwhile, has been reluctant to accept the increasingly unavoidable fact that its 2003 invasion of Iraq has birthed a pro-Iranian Shia ascendancy in the country which is now trying to expel the remaining US forces.
When reality is too bitter and frightening to confront, political classes, like individuals, sometimes take shelter in denial. That, it appears, is the answer to the riddle of Baghdad.
https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Behind-the-Lines-The-riddles-of-Baghdad-610785?fbclid=IwAR1vtbagBpLqGBsTBuvvJKjWraecpv7b0de2vBPIWlSr5oViGostyQ2R3PY

It’s Time for Europe to Stand with the Iranian People
Dr. Eric R. Mandel/MEPIN/December 14/2019
What will it take for the international community to realize that no amount of money, accommodation or deference will change the DNA of Iran’s leaders, who are bent on eradicating Israel, and the ascendency of Shi’ism over Sunnis and minority populations living in the Mideast?
In Tehran, the mullahs have blamed the recent protests in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon not on their own repressive regimes and proxies, but on foreign and Zionist interference.
The Iranian Supreme Leader speaking to his Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Basij henchmen, blamed the Iranian people’s protests on foreign interference, thanking the Iranian people for the “hard blow to global arrogance and Zionism, forcing them to retreat.”
How long will the Iranian scapegoating against the West and Zionists work, when their economy is in shambles and the people yearn for freedoms that are an anathema to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s revolutionary agenda?
Repressive regimes have long used scapegoating as the preferred method to blame anyone but themselves for their violence, lack of human rights and economic failures.
The revolutionary Islamist Iranian theocracy shares elements with every authoritarian regime that imprisons and kills its own people, deflecting attention with scapegoating, but unique to Iran is its religiously sanctioned dissimulation—i.e., taqiyya, a precautionary dissimulation or denial of religious belief and practice in the face of persecution.
You would think that Europeans who supposedly learned the lessons of fascism in the 20th century would be particularly sensitive to a vicious state-controlled secret police—in this case directly controlled by the Iranian Mullahs, the IRGC and the corrupt Iranian government.
Like the Nazis who diverted resources even during militarily challenging times in 1944 when they choose to ramp up their master plan to kill all the Jews of Europe, the Iranian regime today chooses to divert its resources to surround Israel and support its proxies for the destruction of the Jewish state, instead of economically helping their people. You can understand this only if you realize how central a foundational pillar of the Iranian revolution is the destruction of Israel.
Yet Western Europe, including France, England and Germany, which tout their humanitarian records, have supported and treated the Iranian regime as a legitimate government—not as the world’s leading state sponsor of terror—and have even enabled the world’s foremost Jew-haters a path to nuclear weapons.
Th European Union recently rejected by vote a “Made in Israel” label for every Israeli good produced over the 1967 Green Line, much like Jewish products were labeled in the 1930s by Germany. The Irish are even in the process of criminalizing anyone who economically profits from goods made in Judea and Samaria (West Bank). Yet an additional six E.U. nations this week joined the INSTEX bartering system to bypass American sanctions on Iran.
When did it become the policy of European Western democracies to be on the side of suppression, jihadism and illiberalism, and against the yearning of a people for liberation from their authoritarian suppressors, or perversely favoring Iran economically over Israel, the only democracy in the region?
The best way to support Iranian protesters is not only to support their legitimate protests, but also the protests of the Lebanese and Iraqi people against their governments, who are in large part controlled by Iran.
According to The New York Times, Iraqi protesters screaming “Out Iran” have burned the
ranian consulate in the holy city of Najaf Iraq “in an outburst of anger at Iran.”
The best way to support Iranian protesters is not only to support their legitimate protests, but also the protests of the Lebanese and Iraqi people against their governments, who are in large part controlled by Tehran. If the Lebanese and Iraqi people can effectively challenge their Iranian-controlled political parties and governments, then it would encourage the Iranian people to continue to demand a change of their government.
Now is the time to state the obvious: It would be in American and allied interests for the Iranian people to be in charge of their own destiny.
That will not happen until there is a change of regime in Tehran—something that is a dirty word in the international community. But regime change will come not from American boots on the ground, as the critics contend is the real goal, but from the Iranian people themselves, who need and deserve our public and vocal support to take control of their lives both for their benefit and ours.
Unlike Europe, the Trump administration has not taken the easy path of accommodation, appeasement and willful avoidance of facts, but has provided tangible consequences to the Iranian Republic. Not only has it withdrawn from the tragically flawed 2015 nuclear deal that guaranteed an Iranian pathway to nuclear weapons in the future, but has rhetorically stood side by side with today’s Iranian protesters in profound contra-distinction to the last administration’s policy of silence during the Iranian Green Revolution of 2009, when the regime seemed vulnerable.
Since the 100,000-plus missiles of Iranian-controlled Hezbollah in Lebanon do not threaten Paris, Berlin or London, they rationalize away the true nature of the regime. It helps that they, too, habitually see Israel in a negative light.
What will it take for Europe to wake up and realize that no amount of money, accommodation or deference will change the structural DNA of Iran’s leaders, who are bent on the eradication of Israel, and the ascendency of Shi’ism over Sunnis and minority populations living in the Middle East?
Since the 100,000-plus missiles of Iranian-controlled Hezbollah in Lebanon do not threaten Paris, Berlin or London, they rationalize away the true nature of the regime. It helps that they, too, habitually see Israel in a negative light.
Iran is not a rational state actor in the Western sense. It is, however, an Islamist rational actor with a well-thought-out hegemonic agenda to destroy the Jewish state and dominate the Middle East as in the long-ago days of Persian imperialism. Iran is a dangerous combination of longing for the glory days of Persian domination of its neighbors, married to a unique Twelver Shi’ite Jihadist desire to capture Mecca, Medina and Jerusalem.
Once the obvious conclusion is drawn that Iran cannot be changed or turned into a member of the international community in good standing, then strategies to deal with this reality can be created. The Iranian economy is on the ropes, and if only the Europeans would join the American sanction regime, the Iranian people could possible take control of their destiny.
*Dr. Eric R. Mandel is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network. He regularly briefs members of the U.S. Senate, House and their foreign-policy advisers. He is a columnist for “The Jerusalem Post” and a contributor to i24TV, “The Hill,” JTA and “The Forward.”

Getting Iran Out of Syria: The Dayan Formula
Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen/BESA/December 14/2019
In a recent press conference, Defense Minister Naftali Bennett presented a goal for IDF activity in Syria: “To cause Iran to give up its attempt to entrench itself in Syria.” Unlike the common tendency toward ambiguity in defining strategic objectives, Bennett dared pronounce a clear and measurable goal. But is the goal he presented achievable? And is it right to declare a strategic goal in that way?”
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,368, December 10, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In a recent press conference, Defense Minister Naftali Bennett presented a goal for IDF activity in Syria: “To cause Iran to give up its attempt to entrench itself in Syria.” Unlike the common tendency toward ambiguity in defining strategic objectives, Bennett dared pronounce a clear and measurable goal. But is the goal he presented achievable? And is it right to declare a strategic goal in that way?
Military correspondents have reported that in the IDF General Staff’s assessment, it is doubtful whether expanding offensive activity—however successful—can cause Tehran to renounce its vision and its ambitions in Syria. The Iranian regime and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) are driven by an expansionist Islamist ideology. The constraints of reality are certainly forcing them to make changes and adapt to circumstances, but that is not the same as forsaking their imperialist vision.
A historical perspective is needed here.
Having been enjoined to make sweeping cuts in its order of battle in the wake of Israel’s War of Independence, the IDF found it difficult to find a workable solution to the fedayeen terrorism of the early 1950s. With the forming of commando Unit 101 and its merging with the Paratroopers Brigade under the leadership of Chief of Staff Moshe Dayan, a concept of retaliation gradually developed as a response to this problem. It quickly transpired, however, that despite a string of operational successes, the approach did not bring about a real decline in fedayeen terror.
The Israeli government was perplexed—but Dayan, with his quintessential creativity, reinterpreted the logic of the retaliation operations and posed a different systemic objective for them. Identifying the gap between the tactical aspects of the operations and their strategic significance, he introduced a groundbreaking conceptual framework that gave renewed relevance to the retaliatory actions.
Although the deterrence of fedayeen terrorism continued to be the immediate rationale behind the retaliation policy, it was oriented toward a wider objective: positioning Israel and its military prowess in the evolving regional and international system. In Dayan’s words: “Our victories and our failures in small battles along and across the border are of great importance. Not only because of their direct effect on day-to-day security, but also because of their impact on how the Arabs assess Israel’s power and Israel’s belief in its power.”
In that way, a strategic framework was created that was open to regional developments in anticipation of two possible courses of action: either the ongoing retaliatory strikes would gradually curtail the terror, or they would lead to war and a new regional order. Meanwhile, by taking the opportunity to undertake operational friction with the regular forces of Egypt, Jordan, and Syria, the IDF built up its capability and established an awareness of that capability in the eyes of both the enemy and the international arena. The quality of the IDF’s performance in these operations undoubtedly contributed to the eventual collaboration with France and Britain in the 1956 Sinai Campaign.
Applying Dayan’s thinking to today’s strategic context, the fighting against Iranian forces in Syria, especially on the Golan border, can be viewed as a means of initiating a clash with those forces out of a defensive motive rather than a direct interest in a full-fledged war.
Having the audacity to use force, especially in a situation that hovers on the very real threshold of war, does entail the risk of escalation, but also holds the potential to give Israel a prominent role in the crystallizing anti-Iran regional coalition. The objective of such a clash would be to showcase Israel’s operational superiority by proving its military capability and strategic daring, thereby making clear that Jerusalem does not fear a military conflict in defense of its vital interests.
A goal of that kind, in the spirit of Dayan’s conceptualization and in contrast to Bennett’s clear-cut and closed formulation, can manage unforeseen and uncontrollable developments. Therein lies its special nature as an achievable strategic objective.
*Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen is a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. He served in the IDF for 42 years. He commanded troops in battles with Egypt and Syria. He was formerly a corps commander and commander of the IDF Military Colleges.

Exposing the jihadi mouthpieces who pollute our world
Peter Welb/Arab News/December 15/2019
As the column of jihadis bearing black flags marched on Mosul and declared a caliphate, I was establishing a research unit that sought to provide greater understanding of the warped religious justification used by the group. This required us to monitor and digest jihadi propaganda. I used to read Dabiq, Daesh’s semi-regular, English-language magazine, with more thoroughness than the morning papers.
Over the course of this tumultuous period, certain stylistic elements of the propaganda became evident. One was the emphasis in publications on long features on some aspect of the terror group’s understanding of Islamic theology, which was often obscure and technical. In part, it was things like this that bolstered my conviction that to seek to address jihadism without tackling it at a theological level would be fruitless.
The cultural aspects were fascinating for another reason. Some elements, like the “five-star jihad” meme (propaganda targeted at Western Muslims tempted to travel to join Daesh, but worried about where they would get their hair gel) were both shallow and obvious. But others merited closer attention; one of these was the use of poetry.
This was primarily delivered through the medium of jihadi nashids: Poetry set to music, sung a cappella. But the poetry was not only designed for singing; it was also published in anthologies. And the most popular Daesh poet was the woman who went by the name Ahlam Al-Nasr (“dreams of victory”).
The granddaughter of Syrian cleric Mustafa Al-Bugha, Al-Nasr arrived in Daesh territory in 2014, aged 16, and soon married an Austrian-born commander. By the summer of 2015, she had published her first collection of poems, “The Blaze of Truth,” and was being hailed as the “Poet of the Islamic State.”
Al-Nasr’s prime function, from an organizational point of view, was propaganda. The use of poetry to advance Islamic causes goes back to the companions of the Prophet of Islam himself. Daesh’s core claim is that it is not a break with Islam’s past but, rather, an authentic revival of early Islam.
Thomas Hegghammer, a leading expert on jihadi culture, once claimed that jihadis seemed to devote a lot of time to activities that were unrelated to their extremist cause.
The granddaughter of Syrian cleric Mustafa Al-Bugha, Al-Nasr arrived in Daesh territory in 2014, aged 16, and soon married an Austrian-born commander. By the summer of 2015, she had published her first collection of poems, “The Blaze of Truth,” and was being hailed as the “Poet of the Islamic State.”
But the reality is that their cultural activities are strongly related to their jihadi activity. Any counter-cultural group needs to establish its own culture, whatever its goals or reasons for existence. Ideology alone is not sufficient to keep fractious, homesick, culturally diverse people together. They need to develop a common cultural identity to cling to as well.
The recruitment route can go the other way, too. Non-violent Islamists can share cultural lodestars with violent jihadis, meaning that those who choose violence to achieve their goals find it easier to switch from one to the other.
Al-Nasr’s poetry ticked all these boxes: It served as an instrument of propaganda, glorifying life in the so-called caliphate; it sought to tie the actions of Daesh to the successes and sacrifices of Islam’s early years; and it contributed to the literary canon, and therefore to the long-term stability of the Islamist and jihadi subculture. All of this matters if we want to understand how to defeat jihadism in the long run. Daesh may be defeated territorially, but its supporters are still out there, demonstrating their capacity for violence. And just as Daesh was not the first jihadi group to achieve global prominence, neither will it be the last.For too long, the West has focused on police and military responses to jihadism. These are clearly necessary, but they can only suppress it. Defeating it requires an approach that tackles the elements that give ideas their power.
The West has spent the past two decades slowly waking up to the need to tackle Islamism and jihadism at a theological level.
It will take time, but exposing propagandists such as Al-Nasr as hate preachers is an important part of understanding the poison of jihadi thinking that pollutes our world and threatens our future.
• Peter Welby is a consultant on religion and global affairs, specializing in the Arab world. Previously he was the managing editor of a think tank on religious extremism, the Center on Religion and Geopolitics, and worked in public affairs in the Arabian Gulf. He is based in London, and has lived in Egypt and Yemen.

Israel braced for another divisive Groundhog Day election
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/December 15/2019
By midnight last Wednesday, the almost inevitable happened and the Knesset dissolved itself to hold an election at the beginning of March. The last drop of pragmatism has been squeezed out of Israeli politics, and its politicians will face the electorate for the third time in less than a year, albeit reluctantly.
But there is no guarantee that the outcome at the third time of asking will produce results more conducive to the formation of a government. Cynics are already proposing that Israel prepare for the fourth and fifth round as well … just in case. However, every failed attempt to form a government is deepening both the mistrust between politicians and the public’s lack of faith in the political system.
Since December 2018, Israel has been run by an interim government and a prime minister under investigation for corruption — until last month when he was formally indicted on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. Netanyahu, for many years regarded as a magician who could always find the right formula for assembling a government, appears to have lost his political acumen, and has consequently become a diminishing asset, not only to his Likud Party but also for the entire Right in Israel.
The writing has been on the wall since his coalition collapsed a year ago, followed by his failure to form a government after elections in April and September. What Netanyahu and those who blindly follow him fail to accept is that at the height of his power his calculus, though already self-serving and opportunistic, was in the realm of politics; but after he became embroiled in corruption allegations his concerns tilted first toward saving his skin from indictment, and then from facing the courts and spending time in jail should he be convicted. Netanyahu’s coalition talks have turned into an exercise in manipulating potential partners into agreeing to legislate to grant him immunity from prosecution. His outrageous actions have united two camps — those who are principled and morally opposed to serving in a government led by someone facing such allegations, and those who have identified his weakness and are queuing up to oust him.
From the moment September’s election results were announced, efforts to form a government consisted more of hope than genuine belief. Assembling a coalition with majority support was always an unrealistic prospect. The right-wing bloc of 55 members remained short of the 61 required, and also proved to be rigid. No one yielded to the temptation to join a center-left coalition. Similarly, the center left, led by the and White party, stood firm, without a single desertion that might have resulted in a Netanyahu-led administration.
Israel will have no elected government until at least next spring, which means nearly a year and a half of a paralyzed administration unable to carry out major legislation, pass budgets or make appointments.
This tells part of the stalemate story. Nevertheless, the link that connects the collapse of the coalition a year ago with the subsequent failures to form a government after each of the 2019 elections is Avigdor Lieberman and his Yisrael Beitenu Party. His resignation as defense minister and departure from the coalition triggered the April election. His decision not to join a right-wing coalition, where his politics has for a very long time been played out, and his failed attempt to construct a majority grouping that would include the two major parties, Likud and Blue and White, left only a slim chance of forming a government. Lieberman’s aim to marginalize the ultra-Orthodox parties and the Arab Joint List by forming a more narrowly based coalition then restricted the available options to almost nil.
A third election is a colossal act of irresponsibility. It has come at a cost of billions to Israel’s economy, and another price that is even heftier; Israel will have no elected government until at least next spring, which means nearly a year and a half of a paralyzed administration unable to carry out major legislation, pass budgets or make appointments. At the same time, an interim government could well entangle the country in military operations with major implications for its security, and without the legislative branch’s oversight. All in all this is an unhealthy situation at best, and at worst an extremely dangerous one.
If the previous two election campaigns were nasty affairs, featuring a prime minister with no compunction about insulting and inciting against his political rivals, Israel’s Arab minority, the media, and civil society, one can only expect the forthcoming campaign to be much worse. The only events likely to prevent this are Netanyahu losing in Likud’s leadership primaries to his long-time nemesis Gideon Sa’ar, or if he decides to negotiate a plea bargain and at last vacates the political scene.
In the meantime the usual blame game has erupted over who are the main pantomime villains in the failure to form a government, and if one is to believe the accusations flying in all directions, few are left spotless. However, judging by recent polls it is Blue and White that is being rewarded by the public, both for adhering to its principles and for Yair Lapid’s decision to release Benny Gantz from their agreement to rotate the position of prime minister, as the latter is perceived as the more “responsible adult” in this partnership.
We must now brace ourselves for another divisive election season. However, it is for the voters to reject this style of politics, and most importantly to learn from the consequences of their voting pattern. What might end the current impasse is if the electorate decides to take a less sectarian approach to voting, and in this way punish those who sow division and hatred.
• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. Twitter: @YMekelberg