LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 14/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
The harvest is plentiful, but the labourers are few; therefore ask the Lord of the harvest to send out labourers into his harvest
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 10/01-07/:”After this the Lord appointed seventy others and sent them on ahead of him in pairs to every town and place where he himself intended to go. He said to them, ‘The harvest is plentiful, but the labourers are few; therefore ask the Lord of the harvest to send out labourers into his harvest. Go on your way. See, I am sending you out like lambs into the midst of wolves. Carry no purse, no bag, no sandals; and greet no one on the road. Whatever house you enter, first say, “Peace to this house!”And if anyone is there who shares in peace, your peace will rest on that person; but if not, it will return to you. Remain in the same house, eating and drinking whatever they provide, for the labourer deserves to be paid. Do not move about from house to house.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 13-14/2019
President Michel Aoun Discusses Paris Meeting on Lebanon with Kubis
Pompeo Dispatches David Hale to Beirut
Pompeo: We Stand with People of Lebanon against Corruption, Terrorism
U.S. Sanctions 3 Individuals, Several Firms Allegedly Linked to Hizbullah
Hezbollah: 'No easy feat' but Lebanon gov't must include everyone
Nasrallah Urges 'Partnership Govt.' Comprising Everyone, including FPM
US Treasury designates Lebanon and DRC-based Hezbollah money launderers
Government must include political parties, Nasrallah says
Judge Aoun Keeps Salloum in Custody after Rizk Allows Her Release
Beirut Judge Presses Charges against Hbeish
Bustani Hands Total First License to Drill for Lebanon’s Oil and Gas
Several demonstrators arrested in connection to shutting down highway in Beirut
Army Arrests Protesters in Jal el-Dib
Lebanon's Gebran Bassil backs technocrat government without Saad Hariri

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 13-14/2019
Iranian Christian arrested, 11 journalists in prison
Despite US Opposition, UN Renews Agency Helping Palestinian Refugees
Iraq’s top Shi’a cleric condemns killings, kidnappings of protesters: Rep
Pompeo warns Iran of ‘decisive response’ if harm in Iraq
UN extends Palestinian refugee mission until 2023
Israel’s president asks public not to despair as another election looms
Israel bars Gaza’s Christians from visiting Bethlehem, Jerusalem at Christmas
Tebboune Elected Algeria's President
Bouteflika-Era PM Elected President of Protest-Hit Algeria
Ex-Premier Elected Algerian President; Thousands March in Protest
Iraq: Sistani Urges State to Control Widespread Arms Use
Campaign of Arrests in West Bank Targets Hamas Leaders
Sudanese Prosecution Arrests Bashir’s Wife in Corruption Cases
UK's Johnson Wins Historic Victory in Brexit Election
Congress Panel Approves Trump Charges, Sets Up Impeachment Vote
Macron Warns Britain against 'Unfair Competition' after Brexit
France, Germany, Italy Urge End to Libya Fighting
Israel Hails Johnson Win as Defeat for Anti-Semitism
Putin Seeks 'Constructive Dialogue' with UK's Johnson
Turkey summons US envoy over Armenian genocide vote

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 13-14/2019
Resignation of the Lebanese President and all the Top Officials Is A Must/Abu Arz-Etian Saqer/December 13/2019
Appointment of a new Lebanese PM rests on upcoming 48 hours of re-consultation/Najia Houssari/Arab News/December 13/2019
Lebanon's banking sector under immense pressure, warns Pompeo/Christina Farhat/Annahar/December 13/2019
Rage In Lebanon Over Statements By Iranian IRGC Official Morteza Ghorbani Threatening To 'Level' Tel Aviv From Lebanon: Outrageous Comments That May Drag Lebanon Into A Devastating War/MEMRI/December 13, 2019
Shi'ite Protester In Beirut Destroys Hizbullah Membership Card, Complains: We Are Dying Of Hunger; Hizbullah And Amal Do Not Care; Their Critics Are Accused Of Collaborating With Israel/MEMRI/December 13/2019
*Iran's Plan to Foil the Gaza Ceasefire/Khaled Abu Toameh/Khaled Abu Toameh/December 13/ 2019
What’s Worse: “Terrorist Groups” or “Terrorist Nations”? Pensacola in Context/Raymond Ibrahim/FrontPage Magazine/December 13/ 2019
Trump’s Iran strategy is working. Here’s why/Saeed Ghasseminejad/Foundation for Defense of Democracies/December 13/ 2019
Boris Johnson Is Hiding the Real Price of Brexit/Therese Raphael/Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/ 2019
Despots of the Square-Kilometer Empires/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/ 2019
Towards an Arab Initiative to Resolve Syria’s Crisis/Ramzi Ezzedine Ramzi/Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/ 2019
The betrayal of Turkey’s youth/Alexandra de Cramer/Arab News/December 13/2019
Macron gambles everything on genuine economic reform/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/December 13/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 13-14/2019
Resignation of the Lebanese President and all the Top Officials Is A Must
Abu Arz-Etian Saqer/December 13/2019
Due to solid facts related to an ongoing Lebanese governmental crisis that is not going to be solved soon,
And because all tangible circumstances indicate that this promised rescue government will not be formed in the near future
And Since all practical solutions for the imminent financial-monetary-economic-social crisis are technically linked to the governmental crisis.
And Since the general conditions of the country is worsening day by day, and warns of a comprehensive and terrifying collapse.
And since the top official have entirely failed in everything and at all levels,
Therefore, the resignation of the Lebanese President of the Republic, along with all the top officials becomes an inevitable and urgent national necessity.
The available two choices are either an inevitable and immediate resignation, or an inevitable and disastrous comprehensive collapse.
Long Live Our Holy Lebanon

President Michel Aoun Discusses Paris Meeting on Lebanon with Kubis
Naharnet/December 13/2019
President Michel Aoun held talks on Friday with UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis and discussed the outcome of the International Support Group for Lebanon meeting in Paris earlier this week, the National News Agency said. On Wednesday, Lebanon's appeal for urgent aid received short shrift at the Paris conference, with France, the US, Russia and other countries making assistance conditional on the formation of a new reform-minded government. Speaking at the end of the ISG meeting for Lebanon, host French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said: "The only possible criteria (for aid) is the effectiveness of the government in implementing the reforms awaited by the population. "This is the only way that the participants around this table and beyond can mobilise to give Lebanon the support it needs."Lebanon has been rocked by unprecedented popular protests over official mismanagement and corruption since October 17. Hariri, who remains premier in the interim, had appealed for aid from Lebanon's allies to secure basic imports in the face of an acute dollar liquidity crisis. Importers of fuel, medicines and wheat have warned of shortages if the situation persists. But the international community has insisted that any aid be conditional on the implementation of wide-ranging reforms, from greater transparency to guarantees on the independence of the judiciary. Prime Minister Saad Hariri stepped down two weeks into the revolt, but a deeply divided political class has failed to reach agreement on a new head of government.

Pompeo Dispatches David Hale to Beirut
Beirut - Khalil Fleihan/
US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale is expected to visit Beirut this month as Lebanon suffers a deep political and economic crisis, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. Hale’s trip would be the first diplomatic move made by President Donald Trump’s administration towards Beirut since the start of massive anti-government demonstrations on October 17.The US official’s planned visit comes after a meeting of the International Group in Support (ISG) of Lebanon held in Paris on Wednesday. US Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker, who represented Washington at the IGS meeting, has informed the US administration about the dangerous levels that Lebanon’s political, economic, social and financial conditions have reached. The US has openly supported Lebanon’s unprecedented cross-sectarian protests denouncing government mismanagement and corruption. The diplomatic sources said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been closely monitoring the situation in Lebanon since his last trip to Beirut in April. Another diplomatic source told the newspaper that Washington will neither provide financial assistance nor liquidity in US dollars that is much required in the Lebanese market. “However, the US can speak with a number of donor countries and organizations, mainly the International Monetary Fund,” the source added. Hale’s visit to Beirut also comes as Lebanon prepares to hold biding parliamentary consultations to name a new premier tasked with forming a government. This month, Trump’s administration lifted a mysterious “hold” on more than $100 million in security aid for Lebanon, more than a month after lawmakers learned the funds were being blocked. Hale said during previous congressional testimonies that there had been some

Pompeo: We Stand with People of Lebanon against Corruption, Terrorism
Naharnet/December 13/2019
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday announced that the U.S. stands by the Lebanese people in the face of “corruption and terrorism,” shortly after Washington slapped sanctions on three individuals and several firms allegedly linked to Hizbullah. “We stand with the people of Lebanon to fight against corruption and terrorism. Today we designated two prominent Lebanese businessmen whose illicit financial activity supports Hizbullah,” Pompeo tweeted. “We will continue to use all the tools at our disposal to counter the threat Hizbullah poses,” he added. Earlier on Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions against three alleged Hizbullah money launderers and financiers, including a diamond trader who collected art. It accused Lebanon-based Nazem Said Ahmad, whose art collection includes works by Pablo Picasso and Andy Warhol, and his companies of helping to launder large sums of money for the group. "Ahmad, who has a vast art collection, is one of Hizbullah's top donors, generating funds through his longstanding ties to the 'blood diamond' trade," it said. A second man based in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Saleh Assi, was sanctioned for laundering money through Ahmad's diamond business and supporting another alleged financier already under sanctions. The U.S. Treasury also slapped sanctions on Lebanon-based accountant Tony Saab, saying he “provided support to Assi.”

U.S. Sanctions 3 Individuals, Several Firms Allegedly Linked to Hizbullah
Naharnet/December 13/2019
The U.S. Department of the Treasury on Friday slapped sanctions against three individuals and several firms allegedly linked to Hizbullah. In a statement, the Treasury identified the individuals as Nazem Said Ahmad, Saleh Assi and Tony Saab. It described Ahmed and Assi as “two prominent Lebanon and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)-based money launderers,” adding that they have affiliated companies some of which have “generated tens of millions of dollars for Hizbullah, its financiers, and their malign activities.”“Hizbullah continues to use seemingly legitimate businesses as front companies to raise and launder funds in countries like the DRC where it can use bribery and political connections to secure unfair market access and evade taxes,” said Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin. “This Administration will continue to take action against Hizbullah financiers like Nazem Said Ahmad and Saleh Assi, who have used money laundering and tax evasion schemes to fund terrorist plots and finance their own lavish lifestyles as the Lebanese people suffer,” Mnuchin added. “Art and luxury goods dealers should be on alert to the schemes of money launderers who hide personal funds in high-value assets in an attempt to mitigate the effects of U.S. sanctions,” said Deputy Secretary Justin G. Muzinich. Describing Nazem Said Ahmad as one of Hizbullah’s “top donors,” the statement said the man possesses “an extensive art collection worth tens of millions of dollars, including works by Pablo Picasso and Andy Warhol, many of which have been on display in his gallery and penthouse in Beirut.”He generates funds through his “longstanding ties to the ‘blood diamond’ trade,” the statement added, noting that Saleh Assi has “laundered money through Ahmad’s diamond businesses.”The U.S. Treasury also slapped sanctions on Lebanon-based accountant Tony Saab, saying he “provided support to Assi.”“Saab has materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of Assi,” the statement said.
“As an employee of Assi’s company Inter Aliment, Saab was involved in facilitating the transfer of millions of dollars for Inter Aliment and Minocongo and provided documentation of such transfers to Assi. Saab was also involved in facilitating Assi’s payments to (alleged Hizbullah financier Adham Hussein) Tabaja,” the statement added.

Hezbollah: 'No easy feat' but Lebanon gov't must include everyone
Al Jazeera/December 13/2019
Hassan Nasrallah insists on its ally, the FPM take part in next government, with consultations starting on Monday.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has said the formation of a new government in protest-hit Lebanon will be "no easy feat", adding that the new cabinet must bring all sides together. In a televised speech on Friday, the leader of the Shia group insisted that its ally, President Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) - Lebanon's largest Christian political bloc - take part in the cabinet. Speaking before binding parliamentary consultations to nominate a new head of cabinet on Monday, Nasrallah said forming a new cabinet that desperately needed to redress a tumbling economy could take time.
"The consultations are supposed to take place on Monday and we hope that whoever receives most votes will be designated to form a government," he said. "But the formation will be no easy feat." Nasrallah said neither a government that only includes Hezbollah and its allies, nor one that only comprises its rivals, could pull the country from a crisis that "requires that everyone stand together". Lebanon has been swept by mass nationwide protests since October 17 demanding the complete overhaul of a political class deemed inept and corrupt. Prime Minister Saad Hariri stepped down on October 29 under pressure from the popular protests, but bitterly divided political parties have failed to agree on his successor ever since. The protesters have demanded a government made up solely of experts not affiliated to the country's traditional political parties, but analysts have warned this could be a tall order. Noting that the crisis has deteriorated since Hariri's resignation, Nasrallah said he would support a "government of national partnership", and one with "the widest possible representation" that did not exclude any of the major parties.
He said it could be headed by Hariri, who remained in a caretaker capacity, or someone the outgoing prime minister designated. The names of various potential candidates have been circulated in recent weeks, but the Sunni Muslim establishment on Sunday threw their support behind Hariri's return. Under the country's power-sharing system, the prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim. Nasrallah's speech came a day after FPM leader and Aoun's son-in-law Gebran Bassil said the party would not join a new government under the terms set by Hariri, but would not obstruct the formation of a new cabinet.
The position of the FPM could ease the way to the formation of a Hariri-led government. Lebanon is in urgent need of a new government to pull it from a deepening economic crisis that has shaken confidence in its banking system. Foreign donors have said they would offer support only after a cabinet able to enact reforms is in place. The World Bank estimates a third of Lebanese live in poverty and this could rise to half. It has projected a recession of at least 0.2 percent for 2019.

Nasrallah Urges 'Partnership Govt.' Comprising Everyone, including FPM
Naharnet/December 13/2019
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday called for the formation of what he called a “national partnership government” comprising all parties, including the Free Patriotic Movement, as he noted that the formation process will not be “easy.”He also said that such a government should be led by Saad Hariri or a figure enjoying his support. “The consultations are supposed to take place Monday and we hope a PM-designate will be named,” Nasrallah said in a televised address. “So far, no agreement has been reached on any candidate… We hope that the figure who gets the necessary votes will be designated on Monday,” he added. “After the designation of a premier, we will talk about the line-up and we would negotiate and cooperate with the PM-designate to form the government,” he said.Nasrallah however pointed out that the formation of a new government will not be an “easy” process. “We insist on the FPM's representation in the government and no party should be eliminated,” Nasrallah added, a day after FPM chief Jebran Bassil announced that his movement will not take part in any so-called techno-political government led by Hariri. “Hariri must ease his preconditions if a national partnership government is to be formed,” Nasrallah said. Noting that the 1943 National Pact forbids the formation of a “one-sided government,” the Hizbullah leader said “any government needs domestic stability in order to be able to address the economic situation.” “A one-sided government might face several accusations and road-blocking protests… Any salvation government will have to take unpopular decisions,” Nasrallah said. Noting that the International Support Group for Lebanon -- which convened in Paris Wednesday – has called for the formation of a “reformist government,” Nasrallah suggested that such a government “does not necessarily stand for a technocrat government.” “The caretaker government must shoulder its responsibilities regarding the economic situation,” he said. Hariri has insisted that he will only lead a technocrat government, telling the other parties that he is not opposed to the nomination of another figure for the PM post. A leading candidate for the post – Samir Khatib – was however told on Dec. 1 by the country’s grand mufti, Sheikh Abdul Latif Daryan, that were was Sunni “consensus” on the nomination of Hariri, which prompted Khatib to withdraw his nomination. Hariri resigned on October 29, bowing to pressure from unprecedented and cross-sectarian street protests demanding an end to corruption and an overhaul of the entire political system. The protest movement has repeatedly called for the formation of an independent technocrat cabinet.

US Treasury designates Lebanon and DRC-based Hezbollah money launderers
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 13 December 2019
The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on two Lebanon and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)-based money launderers and their affiliated companies, accusing them of having links to Hezbollah and generating millions of dollars for the group. The actions on Friday targeted Lebanon-based Nazem Said Ahmad and DRC-based Saleh Assi. “Ahmad, who has a vast art collection, is one of Hezballah’s top donors, generating funds through his longstanding ties to the “blood diamond” trade. Treasury is also taking action against DRC-based Saleh Assi who has laundered money through Ahmad’s diamond businesses,” a statement from the US Treasury read. “Hezbollah continues to use seemingly legitimate businesses as front companies to raise and launder funds in countries like the DRC where it can use bribery and political connections to secure unfair market access and evade taxes,” said US Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin. “This Administration will continue to take action against Hezbollah financiers like Nazem Said Ahmad and Saleh Assi, who have used money laundering and tax evasion schemes to fund terrorist plots and finance their own lavish lifestyles as the Lebanese people suffer.”The move comes at a time when a US official confirmed to Al Arabiya that US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale is expected to visit Beirut next week. The official said that Hale will carry a message from Washington to Lebanese officials that the US will not provide financial support to Lebanon until after the formation of a government that responds to the demands of the Lebanese people.

Government must include political parties, Nasrallah says
Georgi Azar/Annahar/December 13/2019
His comments signaled that an independent government, a core demand of the popular uprising, remains far fetched.
BEIRUT: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah maintained Friday his group’s preference for a government that includes the majority of political parties. “It is unacceptable to form a government that includes any component,” Nasrallah said during a televised speech. His comments signaled that an independent government, a core demand of the popular uprising, remains far fetched. He outlined his group’s refusal, along with the Amal Movement, of forming a “one color” government as responsibility for Lebanon’a current state of shares “should be shared by all.”He said the Cabinet formation would prove no easy task as the different stake holders have to yet to agree on a potential candidate to head the government. On Monday, President Michel Aoun will host the different parliamentary blocs during binding consultations. Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on Oct. 29, dissolving the government. Nasrallah also called on his ally, the Free Patriotic Movement, to take part in any government after its leader Gebran Bassil announced Thursday his party’s non participation.

Judge Aoun Keeps Salloum in Custody after Rizk Allows Her Release
Naharnet/December 13/2019
Mount Lebanon Prosecutor Judge Ghada Aoun on Friday blocked a decision to release Traffic Management Authority head Huda Salloum from detention, remanding her in custody in Baabda, the National News Agency said. First Examining Magistrate of Beirut George Rizk had earlier on Friday interrogated Salloum and ordered her release after she signed a proof of residence, NNA reported. NNA said Salloum’s lawyer Marwan Daher attended the interrogation and that the questions pertained to the public prosecution’s lawsuit against her on charges of bribery and illicit enrichment. Judge Aoun had on Wednesday ordered Salloum’s arrest based on a lawsuit filed by the lawyer Wadih Akl, which accused Salloum of offenses related to bribery, forgery, the waste of public funds, illicit enrichment and mismanagement. Aoun then referred the file to Judge Rizk. MP Hadi Hbeish of al-Mustaqbal Movement has accused Judge Aoun of taking a politicized measure against Salloum in order to replace her with a figure loyal to the Free Patriotic Movement.

Beirut Judge Presses Charges against Hbeish
Naharnet/December 13/2019
Beirut Attorney General, Judge Ziad Abu Haidar, pressed charges against MP Hadi Hbesih in a case of defamation against Mount Lebanon Prosecutor Judge Ghada Aoun, LBCI TV station said on Friday. Abu Haidar referred Hbeish to the investigative judge, it added. LBCI said that Attorney General at the Court of Cassation Judge Ghassan Oweidat, who summoned Hbeish for testimony Friday, considered Hbeish’s case “a proven crime” and asked Abu Haidar to prosecute him. Hbeish did not attend the session, but his attorney presented a motion to dismiss the charge noting that it was not the case. On Thursday, the Lebanese state, represented by the head of the lawsuits dept. at the Justice Ministry Judge Hilana Iskandar and its legal delegate the lawyer Rabih al-Fakhri, has filed the lawsuit against Hbeish. It accuses Hbeish of “launching a public assault against Aoun in front of all those present in the lobby of the Justice Palace in Baabda on Wednesday,” against the arrest of director general of the traffic administration, Hoda Salloum.

Bustani Hands Total First License to Drill for Lebanon’s Oil and Gas
Naharnet/December 13/2019
Caretaker Energy Minister Nada Bustani on Friday handed the license to drill Lebanon’s first oil exploration well in its territorial waters to the director of Total. Bustani handed over the permit to drill in Bloc 4 to a consortium comprising energy giants Total (France), ENI (Italy) and Novatek (Russia).
Last year, Lebanon signed its first contract to drill for oil and gas in its waters. Total, ENI and Novatek took the first two of its 10 blocks, including in Bloc 9, disputed by neighboring Israel with which Lebanon has fought several wars.
Total said it was aware of the border dispute in less than eight percent of block 9 and said it would drill away from that area. On April 5, Lebanon invited international consortia of at least three companies to bid for five more blocks by the end of January 2020.

Several demonstrators arrested in connection to shutting down highway in Beirut
Joanne Serrieh, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 13 December 2019Text size A A A
Seven protesters were arrested Friday in connection to shutting down Jal el-Dib highway, to the north of Beirut, the National News Agency reported. Clashes erupted between the Lebanese army and a number of protesters after they tried to block the major road in order to pressure political officials to expedite parliamentary consultations in order to form a new government, according to NNA. The army has since reopened the Jal el-Dib highway completely. Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s formal consultations with parliamentary blocks to designate a new prime minister are scheduled to take place on December 16. Demonstrators have been taking to the streets of Lebanon since October and are fueled by deep resentment for a ruling class seen as mired in corruption, which drove the economy into crisis.

Army Arrests Protesters in Jal el-Dib
Naharnet/December 13/2019
The Lebanese army arrested several activists on Friday during scuffles with protesters blocking the Jal el-dib highway, amid sit-ins elsewhere as the two-month-old movement against corruption and mismanagement continues. Tens of protesters in Jal el-Dib battled police on multiple points on the highway disrupting the morning rush hour. Video recordings circulating on social media showed army troops beating and kicking one of the protesters in the middle of the highway, which angered people. “We are blocking the road this early to make our voices heard in Baabda,” one protester told MTV reporter, referring to President Michel Aoun’s failure to begin the binding parliamentary consultations to name a premier. In the northern city of Jounieh, protesters staged a sit-in near the car registration division preventing access for employees. They placed a Lebanese flag at the entrance door, the National News Agency reported. Protesters also stormed the National Social Security Fund offices in Beirut and Sidon. They recited a statement demanding medical coverage for incurable diseases, old-age pension, health insurance and fighting corruption. Lebanon has been grappling with nationwide protests and faces one of its worst economic crisis in decades, only deepened by the political stalemate. Political parties have been haggling over the nature of the government to replace the government of PM Saad Hariri who resigned late in October. Hariri has called for a government of technocrats but remains the most likely candidate to head a new one.

Lebanon's Gebran Bassil backs technocrat government without Saad Hariri
The National/December 13/2019
Change of stance on protesters' demand puts his FPM party odds with its ally Hezbollah
Lebanon's Free Patriotic Movement will back a new government made up entirely of technocrats, but not with caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri at its head, its leader said, adding a further twist to a political crisis triggered by two months of anti-government protests.
Caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, who heads the Christian party founded by his father-in-law, President Michel Aoun, outlined its position at a press conference on Thursday night. "Should Hariri insist on the 'nobody but me' approach, and should Hezbollah and Amal Movement hold on to a technopolitical government led by Hariri, we have no interest in partaking in such a Cabinet as it is doomed to failure," Mr Bassil was quoted as saying by Lebanon's National News Agency. "The solution is clear, which is the formation of an effective rescue government, a government of experts whose members and head are specialists capable of restoring people's confidence, and who are backed by political forces and parliamentary blocs," he said. Mr Bassil's statement reverses his party's earlier opposition to the protest movement's call for established political leaders to make way for a government of technocrats. The protesters have also said they will not accept Mr Hariri as returning prime minister.
Mr Hariri resigned as prime minister on October 29 in response to the protesters' demands. The protesters accuse the country's politicians of corruption, failing deliver basic services and mismanaging the economy. Lebanon has been unable to access a US$11 billion assistance fund pledged last year because the government has been unable to implement the reforms demanded by donor countries. Mr Hariri has supported the call for a government of technocrats but remains the most likely candidate to head one. The country's top Sunni religious leader called Mr Hariri the preferred candidate, rejecting another proposed name. Hezbollah also want him to head a mixed government of technocrats and politicians. Under Lebanon's sectarian-based political system, the prime minister is chosen from the Sunni community, the president is a Christian and the speaker of Parliament a Shiite. Consultations between President Aoun and parliamentary blocs to name a new premier are expected on Monday. They were postponed once before over disagreements on naming a new premier. Mr Hariri told the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund's top executives on Thursday that he was committed to preparing an urgent rescue plan to alleviate the country’s worsening economic crisis, according to a statement from his office. He discussed the technical assistance they could provide for such a plan and asked for increased financial support from the World Bank's International Finance Corporation to ensure the country's imports are uninterrupted amid a deepening foreign currency crisis. Mr Hariri’s call came a day after an international group of Lebanon’s allies said the country cannot expect to receive aid unless a new government is formed to institute major reforms. The caretaker prime minister wrote to leaders of several countries last week seeking help to keep up the import of essential goods into Lebanon.

Appointment of a new Lebanese PM rests on upcoming 48 hours of re-consultation
Najia Houssari/Arab News/December 13/2019
BEIRUT: The Free Patriotic Movement’s (FPM) latest decision not to participate in the next Lebanese government has created new difficulties in resolving the political crisis. Sources close to the President Michel Aoun told Arab News that he considered his country in need of “a techno-political government,” but that: “The appointment of the prime minister does not need the consensus that was lost with the FPM’s boycott, but it is needed when forming the government. “The parliamentary consultations will be held as planned, while parliamentary blocs are reviewing their decisions in light of the FPM’s withdrawal. Extensive communication is taking place between them to reach a decision in the next 48 hours.”It is likely that the head of the caretaker government, Saad Hariri, will be reappointed as prime minister of the new government in light of the insistence of the highest Sunni authority.
Hariri is determined to form a government of experts capable of dealing with the difficult economic and financial situations the country is witnessing.
Hariri resigned on Oct. 29 following widespread protests against the government and political class.
The announcement of the International Support Group for Lebanon, from Paris last Wednesday, gave the Lebanese authorities a last and limited chance to achieve the necessary economic reforms and form a government that takes into consideration the demands of the protesters.
FASTFACT
It is likely that Saad Hariri will be reappointed as prime minister of the new government in light of the insistence of the highest Sunni authority. A source close to the interim prime minister said: “Hariri’s position regarding the next government is clear. It is focused on forming a government distant from the traditional quotas logic and capable of addressing the fears of the protesters and the economic threats facing the country.”“The formation of the government is a right limited to the president and the prime minister.” Former constitutional judge Khaled Kabbani told Arab News: “The formation situation is very foggy. Everyone is overwhelmed and things are changing rapidly. “The formation of the government is under a lot of pressure and the latest announcement of the International Support Group for Lebanon reflects that. It wants a government that wins the trust of the protesters. We have to wait and see if it will play a role in resolving the crisis.”
Protestors had considered the latest FPM decision a win for their cause, while activists on social media confirmed that they would continue their movement against the political class, and would shift focus to tax disobedience. Meanwhile, Lebanon's Hezbollah said on Friday that the country's next government must bring all sides together so that it can tackle the country's worst economic crisis in decades. The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, said his Iran-backed movement insists on its ally the FPM — Lebanon's largest Christian political bloc — taking part in the Cabinet.In a televised speech, Nasrallah also said he hoped a new prime minister would be designated on Monday, but added that even so, forming a new Cabinet would not be easy.

Lebanon's banking sector under immense pressure, warns Pompeo
Christina Farhat/Annahar/December 13/2019
Pompeo called attention to the financial repercussions of the unofficial capital controls implemented by the banking sector. BEIRUT: US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, cautioned of the dangers of the increasing pressure on the banking sector while taking the opportunity to denounce the Iranian backed Hezbollah party. Pompeo reinforced the International Support Group (ISG) sentiment, with the ISG meeting being held today in Paris, that the security of Lebanon is in the best interest of the international community. “I know the meeting is taking place; we’re working on it. We know that the financial situation is very serious and that the Central Bank is under real pressure,” Pompeo said in his remarks. Pompeo called attention to the financial repercussions of the unofficial capital controls implemented by the banking sector. However, he rested the burden of banking rights, and long-term governmental reform, on the shoulders of the Lebanese people. “The Lebanese people don’t have access to their accounts in a way that is full, and sufficient, and adequate, but the responsibility lies with the Lebanese people. The responsibility on how the government will be formed, and shaped, falls to the Lebanese people to demand Lebanese sovereignty, Lebanese prosperity, and Lebanese freedom from outside influence,” Pompeo said.
The 70th United States Secretary of State also denounced Hezbollah, verbally positioning the group as a roadblock to freedom.
“We have a designated terrorist organization, Hezbollah, and I know that the people of Lebanon understand the risk that that presents to their freedom, and to their capacity to deliver for themselves,” Pompeo said. Speaking on behalf of the United States of America, Pompeo insisted that the State Department’s stance on Hezbollah is not an American proposal, but a proposal by the people of Lebanon. This statement was made weeks after the former Ambassador of the United States of America to Lebanon, Jeffrey Feltman, was blasted for unraveling US interests during his recent congressional testimony, stating that the protests “fortunately coincide with US interests” against Hezbollah. “This is not an American proposition, this is a proposition of the Lebanese people and we do stand ready to do the things that the world can do to assist the Lebanese people getting their economy righted and their government righted,” Pompeo said. The tension between the US and Iran is felt in Beirut where the US has intensified its sanctions on Iran-backed Hezbollah. The US took extreme measures, such as sanctioning three top Hezbollah officials earlier this year, that was more geared towards sending a symbolic message than limiting Hezbollah’s influence in practice. With Hariri’s formally accepted explanation to the West on why Hezbollah is represented in government, the distinction between “military wing” Hezbollah, and “political command” Hezbollah, out the window, the question now shifts to what is in store for Hezbollah in the future.
If a Trump re-election is in the cards, US sanctions against Hezbollah are only expected to grow more unrelenting.“We have taken more actions recently against Hezbollah than in the history of our counterterrorism program,“ Sigal P. Mandelker, undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence at the U.S. Treasury said at a conference in the United Arab Emirates in September of this year.

Rage In Lebanon Over Statements By Iranian IRGC Official Morteza Ghorbani Threatening To 'Level' Tel Aviv From Lebanon: Outrageous Comments That May Drag Lebanon Into A Devastating War
MEMRI/December 13, 2019
On December 12, 2019, Morteza Ghorbani, a senior advisor in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), threatened that Iran could attack Israel from Lebanese soil. Responding to the Israeli foreign minister's remark that an Israeli attack on Iran was "an option," Ghorbani stated: "If the Zionist regime makes [even] the smallest mistake vis-à-vis Iran, we will level Tel Aviv to the ground, from Lebanon, without having to launch a single missile or any [other] device from Iran... God knows that if, one night, Iran's leader [Ali Khamenei] will order a missile attack [on Israel], those Zionists will all surrender... Today, the hearts and spirits of the Yemeni, Syrian, Iraqi, Lebanese and Gazan peoples are with Iran."[1]
Ghorbani's statement evoked outrage among many Lebanese officials. A conspicuous response was that of Defense Minister Elias Bou Saab, considered to be close to Hizbullah. He said that, if Ghorbani had indeed made the statement, it was very saddening and was an infringement of Lebanon's sovereignty. Other officials said that Lebanon was not a no-man's-land to be used by Iran, or a conduit for relaying IRGC threats to other countries. Describing the statement as a violation of Lebanon's honor and dignity, some called to demand an explanation for Ghorbani's statement from the Iranian ambassador and even to expel the ambassador.
Criticism of Ghorbani's remarks was also expressed in Lebanese press articles, which condemned not only Ghorbani but also Lebanese officials, for failing to respond to such Iranian statements and allowing Iran to trample Lebanon's sovereignty.
In response to the uproar, IRGC spokesman Ramezan Sharif issued a denial, stating that Ghorbani's remarks had been "distorted and misconstrued by the media." Sharif added that "Ghorbani does not currently serve as an IRGC advisor but serves in other capacities in the armed forces."[2]
The following are excerpts from some of the Lebanese responses to Ghorbani's statement.
Morteza Ghorbani (source: Tehran Times, Iran)
Lebanese Officials: Ghorbani's 'Unacceptable' Statement Is A Violation Of Lebanon's Sovereignty; Lebanon Is Not A Conduit For Conveying IRGC Messages
Lebanese Defense Minister Elias Bou Saab tweeted on December 10: "Assuming Ghorbani... indeed made the statements attributed to him, they are very saddening and unacceptable, and are an infringement of the sovereignty of Lebanon, which has friendly relations with Iran. Lebanon's independent decision-making must not be harmed in any way."[3]
Elias Bou Saab's tweet
Lebanese Media Minister Jamal Al-Jarrah, of the Al-Mustaqbal faction, tweeted: "The statements attributed to the Iranian official, about using Lebanon as a launch-pad for a regional war, are irresponsible and arrogant, and are an infringement of the sovereignty of the Lebanese state and people." In another tweet he wrote: "Iran is free to defend itself as it pleases, but Lebanon is neither a mailbox for IRGC [messages to the rest of the world] nor an arena to be used by any other country. The Iranian official's remarks are completely ludicrous."[4]
Lebanese former minister Nohad Machnouk, also from the Al-Mustaqbal faction, tweeted: "The days when some people thought little of using Lebanon as a battlefield for the Iranian project [for exporting its revolution] are over. Had the Iranian official given us and himself one lesson in resistance [by waging it] from his own country, instead of pitching the conflict [into the Lebanese arena] and placing the Lebanese people at the forefront of his regional project, we would have been understanding, although we still would have opposed [letting Iran wage its battles from Lebanon]."
Nohad Machnouk 's tweet
In another tweet, he wrote: "We are not a human shield for any regional project [for exporting its revolution]. This [Iranian] official must realize that Lebanon has changed, and it is not impressed with his statements. On the contrary, it will stand like a solid wall against his actions. Lebanon is not, and will never be, a province of Iran."[5]
Former Lebanese minister Ashraf Al-Rifi, a Sunni who opposes Hizbullah, attacked the Lebanese authorities for letting Iran do as it pleases in Lebanon: "Who gave the Iranian regime permission to be so insolent and treat Lebanon like a no-man's-land? Ghorbani wants to retaliate against Israel from Lebanon, and not from Iran. If the [Lebanese] government had any self-respect, it would have expelled the Iranian ambassador."[6] He added: "[Lebanon's] Foreign Ministry has so far issued no response to Ghorbani's statement. [Defense] Minister Bou Saab's position is commendable, but it is not sufficient. An official position must be taken, because what was published [i.e., Ghorbani's statement] is grave, and threatens Lebanon's sovereignty and honor, as well as the [international] efforts to extend it economic aid. Lebanon will not be rescued as long as it remains under Iranian patronage."
Kataeb Party MP: Decisions Of War And Peace Must Not Be Up To Hizbullah And Iran
MP Nadim Gemayel, of the Kataeb party, tweeted: "As a Lebanese citizen I demand [to hear] a clear response to [Ghorbani's] statement from: 1. [Hizbullah Secretary-General] Hassan Nasrallah; 2. President [Michel] 'Aoun; 3. Interim Prime Minister [Saad Al-Hariri]... We will not accept [a reality whereby] decisions of war and peace are in the hands of Hassan Nasrallah or Khamenei. We are a sovereign country, not a proxy state."[7]
Nadim Gemayel's tweet
MP Michel Moawad, head of the Independence Movement, which is part of the March 14 Forces, tweeted: "We wonder why [the attack on Israel] should come from Lebanon, rather than from Iran or the [Syrian] Golan? We refuse to let Lebanon be treated as a no-man's-land. The statement of this Iranian official proves once again that we must formulate a defense strategy directed by the Lebanese state, which has the exclusive authority to defend itself and its citizens."[8]
MP Muhammad Al-Hajjar of the Al-Mustaqbal faction tweeted: "I strongly condemn the statement of Iranian General Morteza Ghorbani. It constitutes a blatant violation of Lebanon's sovereignty and an insistence on treating Lebanon as an arena that serves the interests of Iran's expansion plans. I call to [summon] the Iranian ambassador in Beirut and demand an explanation for this statement."[9]
Head Of 'Movement For Change': Iran Is Dragging Lebanon Into A Confrontation With Israel
Elie Mahfoud, head of the Movement for Change, which is part of the Mustaqbal faction, wrote: "Iran is continuing its insolence towards Lebanon... Here we have General Morteza Ghorbani, an advisor to the commander of the IRGC, saying that, if Israel makes the smallest mistake vis-à-vis Iran, [the latter] will level Tel Aviv from Lebanon, instead of fighting it from [its] own territory... As if we haven't suffered enough due to Iran's financing of the armed [Hizbullah] militia that receives orders according to the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran, [Iran now] continues its manipulations that affect our stability and [expose] Lebanon to Israeli aggression. I refer Ghorbani's statement to the Lebanese authorities, and expect to hear an official position regarding this dangerous invasion of Lebanon."[10]
Elie Mahfoud's tweet
Criticism of Ghorbani's statement was also voiced by Christian MPs from the Strong Lebanon faction, led by Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, an ally of Hizbullah. MP Farid Boustany tweeted: "If it is true [that Ghorbani made these statements], they harm Lebanon's sovereignty on the one hand, and the might of the resistance [Hizbullah] on the other."[11] Another MP from this faction, Antoine Pano, tweeted: "The disturbing statement attributed to... Ghorbani is a violation of Lebanon's sovereignty and the sanctity of its soil. We will not allow Lebanon to be used by any country as a platform for settling its scores."[12]
Lebanese Columnist: Iran Sees Lebanon As Nothing But A 'Missile Launcher-Pad', And This Is The Fault Of The Lebanese Leadership
As stated, criticism of Ghorbani's statement was also expressed in Lebanese press articles. Journalist Yousuf Bazzi wrote in the daily Al-Mudun that Ghorbani's statements are unsurprising, since they reflect what has been known for years: that Iran sees Lebanon as nothing more than an arena from which to attack Israel. Lebanon, he added, accepts this and lets Iran govern its fate – and the ones to blame for this are not Iran or Hizbullah, but rather the Lebanese leaders who allow it. He wrote: "Whoever [expresses] surprise at Ghorbani's statements... is either naïve or a liar... These statements are not new, but are [merely] a reminder of the situation on the ground. As far as Iran is concerned, Lebanon is a kind of missile launch pad. Not a state, a nation or a homeland. A missile launch pad and nothing more. So much so that the commander of the local IRGC division [i.e., Hizbullah], Hassan Nasrallah, boasted in his latest speech that he has so many missiles he does not know where to put them.[13] [Moreover,] several months ago he repeated numerous times that he is at the command of [Iranian] leader [Ali Khamenei] and will go to war if Iran is attacked...[14]
"General Ghorbani's confidence in Lebanon's willingness to avenge Israel's [attacks on] Iran stems not only from Nasrallah's complete loyalty and submission to wilayat al-faqih [i.e., the rule of the jurisprudent, Khamenei], but also from the submission of the Lebanese state to Nasrallah's party, which is part of the IRGC – submission that can no longer be concealed or camouflaged...
"A state whose fate is decided by an IRGC commander known for killing his own people – over 1,000 [Iranian protesters] killed in three days and thousands detained and tortured – and who is engaged in the criminal and cold-blooded murder of young Iraqi [protesters] while also managing an extermination campaign against the Syrian people – [such as state] is not fit to be called a state...
"When it comes to the complete violation of the principle of [our] national sovereignty, neither Iran nor the IRCG are to blame. Nor is it the fault of Hizbullah, which lives in peace with its faith in Khomeini's empire. The blame lies... with the official representatives of the Lebanese state, especially those who, in 2016, formulated the so-called arrangement [according to which Michel 'Aoun was appointed president and Saad Al-Hariri was appointed prime minister], an arrangement that was a carte blanche for Iran to govern Lebanon and its fate..."[15]
Lebanese Columnist: Ghorbani's Statement May Bring A Devastating War Upon Lebanon
Journalist Ahmad Al-Zou'bi wrote in the Al-Liwa daily: "This is not the first time the IRGC has interfered in Lebanon's political affairs... Iran regards Lebanon as part of its empire and as an arena for displaying its regional influence, [and] considers Hizbullah as the jewel in its crown. It [also] has important means, interests and considerations in the Land of the Cedars that are not merely military...
"General Ghorbani's statements constitute a blatant act of aggression against [Lebanon's] national sovereignty. Lebanon can no longer bear to serve – both metaphorically and in practice – as a mailbox for Iran in its dialogue with the U.S. and the West, or as an arena for Iranian score-settling with various parties. The government's silence, and its failure to speak out against these recurring Iranian positions that disrespect Lebanon's sovereignty, is disturbing...
"The gravest aspect of the Iranian official's statement is that it prompts and supplies an excuse for, or drags [Lebanon] into, a painful Israeli attack... by creating reasons, justifications and [suitable] circumstances for such an attack. If such an attack takes place, it will eliminate any chance of seeing the country get back on its feet, for it is already on the brink of bankruptcy... [Moreover,] Lebanon's relations with its Arab surroundings and its friends around the world are not at their best, for well-known reasons. [So] a war, if it breaks out, will have devastating consequences. We should keep in mind that nobody in the Arab or international community will be willing to come to Lebanon's rescue and to rebuild it if another war, like the one in 2006, breaks out."[16]
[1] Khabar Online (Iran), December 9, 2019.
[2] ISNA (Iran), December 11, 2019.
[3] Twitter.com/EliasBouSaab, December 10, 2019.
[4] Twitter.com/aljarrahjamal, December 10, 2019.
[5] Twitter.com/NohadMachnouk, December 10, 2019.
[6] Twitter.com/Ashraf_Rifi, December 10, 2019.
[7] Twitter.com/nadimgemayel, December 10, 2019.
[8] Twitter.com/michelmoawad, December 10, 2019.
[9] Twitter.com/DrMohamadHajjar, December 11, 2019.
[10] Twitter.com/MahfoudElie, December 10, 2019.
[11] Twitter.com/FaridBoustany, December 10, 2019.
[12] Twitter.com/PanoAntoine, December 10, 2019.
[13] For Nasrallah's statements, see alahednews.com.lb, November 11, 2019.
[14] For Nasrallah's statements, see alahednews.com.lb, September 10, 2019.
[15] Al-Mudun (Lebanon), December 12, 2019.
[16] Al-Liwa (Lebanon), December 11, 2019.

Shi'ite Protester In Beirut Destroys Hizbullah Membership Card, Complains: We Are Dying Of Hunger; Hizbullah And Amal Do Not Care; Their Critics Are Accused Of Collaborating With Israel
MEMRI/December 13/2019
In a December 8, 2019 broadcast on Al-Arabiya TV (Dubai/Saudi Arabia) from Beirut, a Shi'ite protestor from Baalbek-Hermel named Hussein Ali Matar asked to be interviewed by the reporter. Matar said that it is impossible to find a job in his area without connections to Hizbullah or the Amal Movement and that Shi'ites in Lebanon are dying of hunger and eating from the trash. He said Hizbullah and Amal Movement officials should resign if they cannot help the people and criticized these movements for accusing their critics of treason and collaboration with Israel. Matar then proceeded to destroy his Hizbullah membership card on camera.
To view the clip of Lebanese Shi'ite Protester Hussein Ali Matar on MEMRI TV, click here or below.
"I Am A Shi'ite From Baalbek-Hermel... I Am Dying Of Hunger We Are All Dying Of Hunger There"
Hussein Ali Matar: "I asked to talk to Al-Arabiya Network in order to deliver my message. I am a Shi'ite from Baalbek-Hermel. In short, I am dying of hunger. We are all dying of hunger there. We are willing to do any job. I'm telling you, I applied for work at the Dar Al-Amal Hospital, but you need connections to the Amal Movement. I applied for work at a factory, but again, you need connections to the Amal Movement. For any job I apply to, I need connections to either Hizbullah or Amal.
"I am a Shi'ite and I have a debt of 2 million Lebanese pounds because of the rent. I support four sisters and one brother, and I haven't worked in six or seven months. I go everywhere, but nobody helps me. They say there is nothing they can do."
"You Think That I Am Well-Fed Just Because I'm From Hizbullah? I Am In The Same Situation As Everybody Else"
"I used to work for Hizbullah and they let me go. So now what? This is my party membership card. This card shows that I volunteer for Hizbullah's Islamic health organization. I – a son of Hizbullah – am dying of hunger. The others keep talking about the weapons of the resistance. Nobody is touching the weapons of the resistance. We all support the resistance against Israel, but we are dying of hunger. One needs to eat in order to fight.
"You think that I am well-fed just because I'm from Hizbullah? I am in the same situation as everybody else.
"During the elections, the Council for Development and Reconstruction made us promises about Baalbek-Hermel. They should go to Baalbek-Hermel and see how the people are dying of hunger. With my own eyes, I saw people eating from the trash. There are people in Baalbek-Hermel who eat from the trash. I saw it with my own eyes. People are sick and tired of being hungry."
"You Volunteer For Hizbullah, Why Didn't They Help You?"
Reporter: "You volunteer for Hizbullah. Why didn't they help you?"
Matar: "I don't know, ask them. I knocked on their door 100 times. I'm telling you, I went to the office of Hashim [Safi Al-Din] in the Dahieh Suburb. He wouldn't see me. He sent his assistant. I told him that I wanted work and he said: 'What do you want me to do? There's no work in the country.'
"What do you mean there's no work? When you told me to vote for you, I did. How come there is no work in the country? Now they tell people to leave [the demonstration]. Why would they leave? Each one of [those in power] gets $1,000-1,500, while I get nothing, not a single Lebanese pound a month."
"If Anybody Who Is Not From Hizbullah Or The Amal Movement Wants To Help Us, They Turn Him Into A Collaborator With Israel"
"If they can't help us, they should resign and let others help us. If anybody who is not from Hizbullah or the Amal Movement wants to help us, they turn him into a collaborator with Israel. I am talking to you now, and tomorrow they'll say I am a traitor, who betrayed the resistance and became an ally of Israel."
Reporter: "What are you doing?" Matar shows his Hizbullah ID card to the camera,

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 13-14/2019
Iranian Christian arrested, 11 journalists in prison
Jerusalem Post//December 13/ 2019
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s fierce crackdown on Christians and journalists is continuing unabated in December, according to human rights monitoring organizations. The International Christian Concern (ICC) reported on Wednesday that Iran’s state-controlled media said the regime arrested an unnamed Christian near the country’s border with Azerbaijan. The ICC wrote that “very little information about the arrested individual is shared. However, the report does cite some of the so-called justifications of arrest including [its attempts to] ‘publicize evangelical Christianity,’ ‘establish house churches,’ and ‘destroy Abrahamic religions [by] disturbing public opinion in the public and virtual spheres.’ A number of items related to this individual were confiscated.” According to ICC, “Iran’s record of mistreating religious minorities foreshadows significant challenges that the evangelist may face. It is common for arrested individuals to disappear for several days while the authorities interrogate the detainee.”The Christian rights group added, “The conditions of incarceration are often filled with a blatant disregard for human dignity. Christians are given long sentences in prison, where they are effectively cut off from their families and friends.” The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) published its annual survey on Tuesday and “found at least 250 journalists in [Iranian] jail in relation to their work, compared with an adjusted 255 a year earlier.”CPJ noted that “Iran, which also saw significant protests in 2019, increased the number of journalists in jail to 11. Prominent economic reporter Mohammad Mosaed was arrested after tweeting during an internet shutdown intended to suppress new protests against high gas prices, ‘Hello Free World!’ and that he was using ‘42 different proxies’ to get online.”The press rights organization wrote that “the highest number of journalists imprisoned in any year since CPJ began keeping track is 273 in 2016. After China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, the worst jailers are Eritrea, Vietnam and Iran.”

Despite US Opposition, UN Renews Agency Helping Palestinian Refugees
Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/ 2019
The United Nations General Assembly on Friday overwhelmingly renewed the mandate for a UN agency supporting Palestinian refugees for another three years amid misconduct allegations and a cash shortfall triggered by a halt in US funding. The mandate of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) was extended until June 30, 2023, with 169 votes in favor and nine abstentions, while the United States and Israel voted against. Hanan Ashrawi, a senior Palestine Liberation Organization official, praised the UN vote on Friday and said it was the United Nations’ responsibility to combat what she called US and Israeli attacks on Palestinian refugees. “All attempts at trying to limit UNRWA’s mandate or defund it or attack it have failed, and we hope that the international community will continue to come to the rescue,” she said. UNRWA, which was established in 1949, provides education, health and relief services as well as housing and microfinance assistance to more than 5 million registered refugees in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem, as well as in Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. The agency has faced budgetary difficulties since last year, when the United States - its biggest donor - halted its aid of $360 million per year. The United States and Israel have both accused UNRWA of mismanagement and anti-Israeli incitement. The Hamas movement, which runs the Gaza Strip, hailed the UN vote as a defeat for the United States and a failure of its attempts to pressure UN member-states against UNRWA. “We welcome the decision to renew the international mandate to UNRWA and we see it as another failure to hostile US policies to the Palestinian rights,” Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters. The US mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the vote. Last month UNRWA Commissioner-General Pierre Krahenbuhl resigned amid an investigation into misconduct allegations. Krahenbuhl has denied wrongdoing and said his agency was the victim of a political campaign designed to undermine it. Switzerland, the Netherlands and Belgium suspended payments to UNRWA over the inquiry, deepening the budget crisis set off last year by the United States. UNRWA hopes the management shake-up will help pacify donors, said a source with knowledge of the organization’s thinking. The United States has advocated shifting the agency’s relief services to refugee host countries. But UNRWA counters it provides a humanitarian lifeline and that it safeguards and advances Palestinians’ rights under international law.

Iraq’s top Shi’a cleric condemns killings, kidnappings of protesters: Rep
Reuters, Baghdad/Friday, 13 December 2019
Iraq’s top Shi’a cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani on Friday condemned recent killings and kidnappings of protesters, urging the state to assert control over the widespread use of weapons. He also called on the armed forces to remain professional, loyal to the state and free from foreign influence, a representative of al-Sistani said during a sermon on Friday in the holy city of Karbala. Armed forces “must be loyal to the nation, and free from foreign interference,” he said. Iraq has been rocked anti-government protests for more than two months. More than 440 people have been killed since Oct. 1, according to a Reuters tally. Al-Sistani, who rarely weighs in on politics except in times of crisis, holds massive influence over public opinion in Shi’a majority Iraq. Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi said he would resign last month after al-Sistani withdrew his support for the government.

Pompeo warns Iran of ‘decisive response’ if harm in Iraq
AFP/Friday, 13 December 2019
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday warned Iran of a “decisive” response if US interests are harmed in Iraq after a series of rocket attacks on bases. “We must... use this opportunity to remind Iran’s leaders that any attacks by them, or their proxies of any identity, that harm Americans, our allies or our interests will be answered with a decisive US response,” Pompeo said in a statement. “Iran must respect the sovereignty of its neighbors and immediately cease its provision of lethal aid and support to third parties in Iraq and throughout the region,” he said. The United States has expressed mounting concern about the flurry of attacks on Iraqi bases used by US troops, several of which it has blamed on Iranian-backed Shiite paramilitary groups. Two rocket attacks this week targeted a compound near Baghdad International Airport, which houses US troops, with an incident Monday wounding Iraqi troops.

UN extends Palestinian refugee mission until 2023
AFP/Friday, 13 December 2019
The United Nations extended the work of its Palestinian refugee agency for another three years on Friday, despite fierce opposition from the United States and Israel. The current mandate was due to run out in June 2020 but 169 countries approved a renewal up to 2023 at the UN General Assembly, with the Americans and Israelis voting against and nine countries abstaining. The resolution approved on Friday “all donors to continue to strengthen their efforts to meet the anticipated needs of the agency” amid deteriorating socio-economic conditions in the Palestinian Territories. US President Donald Trump’s administration, along with Israel, accuses UNRWA of perpetuating the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The agency disputes that and says the services it provides would otherwise not be available to Palestinians. The head of the troubled organization resigned in November amid an internal probe into alleged mismanagement and ethical abuses. An internal ethics report has alleged mismanagement and abuses of authority at the highest levels of the agency, which has also faced a financial crisis after the United States suspended and later cut all its funding in 2018. UNRWA was set up after more than 700,000 Palestinians were expelled or fled their lands during the 1948 war surrounding the creation of Israel. It provides schooling and medical services to millions of impoverished refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria as well as the Palestinian territories, and employs around 30,000 people, mostly Palestinians.

Israel’s president asks public not to despair as another election looms
Reuters, Jerusalem/Friday, 13 December 2019
Israel’s president on Thursday urged Israelis not to lose faith in their democratic system after persistent political deadlock threw the country into a third election in less than a year. The March 2 ballot, agreed by parliament when it voted overnight to dissolve, will be held in the shadow of a corruption indictment last month against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has denied any wrongdoing. Neither the right-wing Likud party leader nor his main political rival, former armed forces chief Benny Gantz of the centrist Blue and White party, won enough support in elections in April and September for a ruling majority in the legislature. Negotiations between the two parties on a “national unity” coalition deteriorated into a blame game as to who would bear responsibility for a third election that both Netanyahu and Gantz insisted neither they nor the country wanted. President Reuven Rivlin, whose proposal of a “rotating” premiership between the two men faltered over who would serve first and for how long, issued a statement appealing to Israelis not to “sink into despair” in the face of the political logjam. “We must not lose faith in the democratic system or in its ability to create the reality we live in with our own hands,” said Rivlin, a former Likud legislator whose current post is largely ceremonial. Netanyahu also faces challenges from within his own party. Likud announced on Thursday it would hold a leadership vote on Dec. 26, the winner of which would head the party’s ticket in the March 2 election, a party official said. However, only one Likud lawmaker, Gideon Saar, has said he would consider running for the top slot. He has not won much support, with most lawmakers indicating they would stick with Netanyahu. The disarray carries a heavy economic price: it will be well into 2020 before a new budget is passed. “The new elections will paralyze the government for another six months in which it will have to operate under an interim budget and hinder economic growth,” said Modi Shafrir, chief strategist in Mizrahi Tefahot Bank’s finance division. Diana Perkins, a Tel Aviv florist, voiced frustration at another do-over ballot, with recent opinion polls predicting no significant change in voting results from three months ago. “I don’t know who has the answer,” she said. “I wish I had a magic ball to say, like, ‘This going to solve all the issues.’”As prime minister, Netanyahu, 70, is under no legal obligation to resign as a result of the indictment and he can seek parliamentary immunity from proceedings he has condemned as a “coup” attempt by government lawyers. For some commentators the bottom line is that Netanyahu, in office for the past decade, has managed to cling to power as Israel’s longest-serving leader despite setbacks at the polls and that he will get another chance at survival at the ballot box.

Israel bars Gaza’s Christians from visiting Bethlehem, Jerusalem at Christmas
Reuters, Jerusalem/Gaza/Friday, 13 December 2019
Christians in the Gaza Strip will not be allowed to visit holy cities such as Bethlehem and Jerusalem to celebrate Christmas this year, Israeli authorities said on Thursday. Gazan Christians will be granted permits to travel abroad but none will be allowed to go to Israel and the occupied West Bank, home to many sites holy to Christians, a spokeswoman for Israel’s military liaison to the Palestinians said. Israel tightly restricts movements out of the Gaza Strip, territory controlled by militant group Hamas. The spokeswoman said that following “security orders,” Gazans would be allowed to travel abroad via Israel’s Allenby Bridge border crossing with Jordan but not to visit cities in Israel or the West Bank. Gaza has only around 1,000 Christians - most of them Greek Orthodox - among a population of 2 million in the narrow coastal strip. This year’s decision is a break with usual policy. Last year, Israel granted permits for close to 700 Gazan Christians to travel to Jerusalem, Bethlehem, Nazareth and other holy cities that draw thousands of pilgrims each holiday season. Gisha, an Israeli rights group, said the ban points “to the intensifying of access restrictions between the two parts of the Palestinian territory,” calling it “a deepening of Israel’s separation policy” for the West Bank and Gaza. The Palestinians seek to set up a state in the West Bank and Gaza, territory Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war. Israel in the past has defended its restrictions on Gazans traveling to the West Bank, saying many Palestinians from Gaza stay on illegally when granted short-term permits. In Gaza, one Christian woman voiced hope Israel would reverse its policy so she could visit her family in the West Bank city of Ramallah. “Every year I pray they will give me a permit so I can celebrate Christmas and see my family,” Randa El-Amash, 50, said, adding: “It will be more joyful to celebrate in Bethlehem and in Jerusalem.”Christian leaders in Jerusalem condemned the move, but added that they are appealing to Israeli authorities to reverse the decision. “Other people around the world are allowed to travel to Bethlehem. We think Gaza’s Christians should have that right, too,” said Wadie Abu Nassar, an adviser to local church leaders.

Tebboune Elected Algeria's President
Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/ 2019
Former Prime Minister Abdelmadjid Tebboune was elected Algeria's new president, but demonstrators who toppled his predecessor Abdelaziz Bouteflika vowed that their movement would not stop. Tebboune, who served as housing minister under Bouteflika and briefly as premier before falling out with tycoons in the ex-leader's entourage, was announced on Friday as the winner of more than half the vote, making a second round unnecessary. Tebboune 74, was elected with 58.15 percent of the vote. Authorities said 40 percent of voters had taken part in Thursday's election, which state media cast as a high enough turnout to vindicate the decision to hold the poll in spite of a boycott. Thousands of demonstrators were expected to take to the streets to protest the result. On polling day Thursday, protesters defied a heavy police presence to hold a mass rally in the heart of the capital Algiers and smaller demonstrations in provincial cities. The election had been championed by the army as a way of restoring stability almost 10 months into a protest movement that in April ousted Bouteflika after two decades in office. All five of the candidates in Thursday's vote were widely rejected by protesters as "children of the regime".
On Thursday, a record six in 10 Algerians abstained, the electoral authority chairman, Mohamed Charfi, said, the highest rate for a multi-party election since independence from France in 1962. Tens of thousands rallied in central Algiers, where police with water cannon and helicopters tried to disperse protesters.
After dark, witnesses reported ongoing scuffles between police and protesters in the Belouizdad neighborhood close to the city center. In the mountain region of Kabylie, home to much of the country's Berber minority and historically opposed to the central government, protesters ransacked polling stations and clashed with police, residents said. In the city of Bejaia, two polling stations were attacked. In Tizi Ouzou, security forces fired teargas to disperse a crowd who had surrounded a government building, triggering a standoff into the night in which several people were wounded.
In central Algiers, young protesters slammed those casting their ballots as "traitors of the nation". Other voters said they had turned out because after nearly a year of turmoil it was time for a return to stability. The "Hirak" street movement kicked off when Bouteflika announced in February that he would seek a fifth term in office. Protesters have stayed on the streets ever since, demanding the total dismantling of the system that has ruled Algeria since independence. Demonstrators have vented their anger at army chief Ahmed Gaid Salah, who has emerged as Algeria's de facto strongman since Bouteflika stepped down. A previous poll set for July was scrapped for lack of viable candidates and interim president Abdelkader Bensalah's term technically ended five months ago.

Bouteflika-Era PM Elected President of Protest-Hit Algeria
Agence France Press/Naharnet/December 13/2019
A former Algerian prime minister who served under deposed leader Abdelaziz Bouteflika was elected president of the protest-wracked country after a vote marred by unrest and low turnout, results showed Friday. Abdelmadjid Tebboune, 74, took 58.15 percent of the vote, trouncing his four fellow contenders without the need for a second-round runoff, electoral commission chairman Mohamed Charfi announced. Like him, they all served under the two-decade rule of Bouteflika, 82, who resigned in the face of mass demonstrations in April. The deeply unpopular election had been championed by the army as a way of restoring stability after almost 10 months of street protests. But on polling day Thursday, protesters defied a heavy police presence to hold a mass rally in the heart of the capital Algiers and smaller demonstrations in provincial cities.All five candidates -- who included another former prime minister, Ali Benflis, 75, and an ex-minister, Azzedine Mihoubi -- were widely rejected by protesters as "children of the regime".
Voter anger -
On Thursday, a record six in 10 Algerians abstained, Charfi said, the highest rate for a multi-party election since independence from France in 1962. Tens of thousands rallied in central Algiers, where police with water cannon and helicopters tried to disperse protesters. "The people want independence," demonstrators chanted after breaking through a police cordon and filling the streets outside the Central Post Office, their rallying point through more than 40 weeks of protest. AFP reporters saw a group storming a polling station in the capital, suspending voting there for about half an hour before police pushed them out again. Late in the afternoon, an AFP reporter saw police using baton charges to disperse remaining protesters. After dark, witnesses reported ongoing scuffles between police and protesters in the Belouizdad neighbourhood close to the city centre. In the mountain region of Kabylie, home to much of the country's Berber minority and historically opposed to the central government, protesters ransacked polling stations and clashed with police, residents said. In the city of Bejaia, two polling stations were attacked. In Tizi Ouzou, security forces fired teargas to disperse a crowd who had surrounded a government building, triggering a standoff into the night in which several people were wounded.
'Mired in crisis' -
In central Algiers, young protesters slammed those casting their ballots as "traitors of the nation".That earned a sharp rebuke from one man in his 80s: "I fought for the right to vote, so I'm voting for my country." Other voters said they had turned out because after nearly a year of turmoil it was time for a return to stability. "I am voting because I am afraid that the country will get mired in the crisis," said Karim, a 28-year-old civil servant. Sid Ali, a 48-year-old merchant in Algiers, said: "I support the Hirak (protest) movement but it needs to end. I lost 70 percent of my turnover and many traders are in my situation."
- 'No to the system' -
Tebboune faces a difficult task to be accepted by the electorate in the North African country, where many citizens see the government as inept, corrupt and unable to manage the flagging economy. He served in Bouteflika's government from 1999 to 2002 as communications and then housing minister. He returned as housing minister from 2012 to 2017 when he was briefly appointed prime minister. But he was sacked by Bouteflika after just three months for criticising some of the president's inner circle, many of whom are now in jail on corruption charges.Since the start of the campaign, Tebboune has sought to distance himself from his years of service under Bouteflika. The "Hirak" street movement kicked off when Bouteflika announced in February that he would seek a fifth term in office. Protesters have stayed on the streets ever since, demanding the total dismantling of the system that has ruled Algeria since independence.
The military high command, which long wielded power from the shadows, has been forced to take a more visible role and has pushed for the election as a way to withdraw behind the scenes again. Demonstrators have vented their anger at army chief Ahmed Gaid Salah, who has emerged as Algeria's de facto strongman since Bouteflika stepped down.A previous poll set for July was scrapped for lack of viable candidates and interim president Abdelkader Bensalah's term technically ended five months ago.

Ex-Premier Elected Algerian President; Thousands March in Protest
Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/ 2019
A former prime minister was elected Algeria’s new president in a vote the authorities hope will end months of turmoil, but protesters who toppled his predecessor marched again, vowing their movement would not stop.
Abdelmadjid Tebboune, 74, campaigned as a technocrat who had proven his integrity by being sacked for falling out with powerful business tycoons after just three months serving as prime minister in 2017 under veteran ruler Abdelaziz Bouteflika. But protesters marching in Algiers see him as beholden to the same shadowy, military-backed elite that has ruled Algeria for decades, and quickly rejected his victory. Thousands crowded central Algiers despite a heavy police presence, suggesting the new leader may struggle to quell the uprising that ended Bouteflika’s two-decade rule in April. “The country is ours and we do what we want”, they chanted, while holding up a banner that read: “We will not stop!”According to official results, Tebboune, who served in a number of cabinet posts under Bouteflika including two stints as housing minister, won the election with more than 50% of the vote, avoiding the need for a run-off against any of four other senior former officials sanctioned to stand. Authorities said turnout was 40%, a figure they said vindicated the decision to hold the election in the face of a boycott by the protesters. The army argues that the only way to move the country forward after demonstrators brought down Bouteflika is to elect a successor. But protesters saw the contest as an illegitimate sham intended to keep the old ruling elite in place. “We have toppled Bouteflika, and we will topple all the system’s men. We won’t give up,” said Riad Mekersi, 24, who has participated in weekly protests for 10 months. “I cannot accept this vote because I do not recognize the corrupt system,” said Salim Rahmoun, 27. He was holding an Algerian flag and a plaque reading “No vote with the gang.”
“Congratulations to Algeria”
Tebboune supporters gathered outside the conference center where his victory was announced, chanting “congratulation to Algeria”. “All Algerians should be optimistic,” said a young man who gave only his first name, Abdelaziz, because his neighbors rejected the election. “The protesters should stay at home.”
Protesters marched in cities and towns across Algeria throughout Thursday’s election, in some places clashing with police, who tried to disperse them with baton charges. The election body said some 9 million Algerians took part, though some protesters said they believed the figure was false, and there were no foreign observers to monitor the vote. “The turnout is satisfying and it will give the new president enough backing to implement his reforms,” said Ahmed Mizab, a commentator on state television, saying it showed the decision to hold the elections was “propitious and right”. The electoral body head, Mohamed Charfi, said the vote had “opened a new page”, achieving the democracy people had demanded in their uprising. Whatever happens to the protests, Tebboune will face trying times. Nearly all Algerian state revenues come from oil and gas exports, which have declined in price and volume. The government has already approved a 2020 budget with a 9% cut in spending. Tebboune has tried to harness the protest movement as a source of support for reform while rejecting its message that the entire ruling elite should go. He vowed during the campaign to “separate money from politics”.
He has used the circumstances of his brief premiership to polish his credentials as a man of integrity who stood up to members of Bouteflika’s coterie, many of whom are now jailed facing corruption charges. However, his own son was also arrested in the post-Bouteflika purge and is awaiting trial for graft. Tebboune supporters said his son’s plight proved his independence.

Iraq: Sistani Urges State to Control Widespread Arms Use
Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/ 2019
Iraq's top Shiite cleric Ali al-Sistani on Friday condemned recent killings and kidnappings of protesters, urging the state to assert control over the widespread use of weapons. He also called on the armed forces to remain professional, loyal to the state and free from foreign influence, a representative of Sistani said during a sermon on Friday in Karbala.Armed forces "must be loyal to the nation, and free from foreign interference," he said. Iraq has been rocked by anti-government protests for more than two months. More than 440 people have been killed since Oct. 1, according to a Reuters tally. Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said he would resign last month after Sistani withdrew his support for the government. On Thursday, demonstrators lynched a teenager accused of attacking a protest encampment in Baghdad, police and witnesses said. Police said a dispute between a 17-year-old male and protesters culminated with the body of the youth being strung from a traffic light near Tahrir Square, the epicenter of the months-old anti-government protest movement. Video streamed live online showed security forces withdrawing before a crowd dragged a man along the ground while people kicked him. His body was then strung up by the feet from a traffic light. Sistani condemned the killing, calling it a “horrific crime” that must not be repeated and called on Iraqi authorities to hold the perpetrators accountable. He also condemned recent killings, kidnappings and assaults on protesters. He added that only the judiciary has the authority to inflict punishment on offenders of the law.

Campaign of Arrests in West Bank Targets Hamas Leaders
Ramallah/Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/ 2019
Israel launched a massive campaign of arrests in the West Bank, targeting a number of Hamas movement leaders. The arrests included former Minister of Local Government Issa al-Jabari, member of the dissolved Legislative Council Muhammad Jamal al-Natsheh, and leaders of Hamas, Jawad Mahmoud Bahr al-Natsheh, Omar Qawasmi, and Mazen Jamal al-Natsheh, all of whom are released prisoners. The Israeli army stormed several Palestinian cities, including Nablus, Bethlehem, Ramallah and Hebron, searching homes and arresting citizens. The army also arrested the president of the Student Council Conference at Birzeit University in Ramallah, Shatha Majid Hassan, at her home.According to Israeli media, the Israeli security defined the arrest operation as a “preventive” measure ahead of the anniversary of the founding of Hamas, which is scheduled to take place on Saturday. In a statement, Hamas said: “The occupation’s arrest of a number of the movement’s leaders and representatives in the city of Hebron confirms its continuous attempts to disrupt the internal Palestinian political life.”“Arrest and prosecution campaigns will not prevent us from assuming our pioneering role in ... confronting the occupation’s plans,” the statement added. The arrests came as settlers carried out a series of reprisal attacks against Palestinians in Israel and the West Bank. Dozens of cars and a Palestinian mosque were attacked by settlers in a village north of Palestine. Residents said that they were surprised by a line of racist slogans calling for the expulsion of Arabs from the country.The Center Against Racism underlined the spread of a dangerous hate phenomenon. It said that this year more than 200 cars and dozens of homes were destroyed, calling for the establishment of a special investigation committee to deal with the phenomenon.

Sudanese Prosecution Arrests Bashir’s Wife in Corruption Cases
Khartoum- Mohammed Amin Yassine/Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/ 2019
The Sudanese Unlawful and Suspicious Enrichment prosecution ordered on Thursday that Widad Babiker, the second wife of ousted Sudanese president Omar Bashir, remains under arrest pending an investigation into corruption cases. Several sources said that investigators raided on Thursday the house of Babiker in Khartoum’s Kfoury district and escorted her to the prosecution headquarters for questioning. Babiker is accused of the acquisition of lands in the suburbs of Kfoury. Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the prosecution would continue to question the suspect and then would decide if Babiker should remain under arrest for another few days. The sources added that the Unlawful and Suspicious Enrichment prosecution established a committee tasked with examining cases related to the Sanad Charity Institution, chaired by Babiker. Last April, reports said that the second wife of Bashir and his brother attempted to leave the country from Juba. Babiker had been out of sight since her husband, who came to power as a result of a coup in 1989 and ruled the country for 30 years, was toppled by the military on April 11 amid anti-government protests. Bashir is accused of money laundering following the seizure of millions of US dollars, euros and Sudanese pounds from his home.A Sudanese court says it will deliver its verdict in his trial on corruption and money laundering charges this month. The court says following testimonies from defense witnesses it will declare the verdict on Dec. 14.

UK's Johnson Wins Historic Victory in Brexit Election
Agence France Press/Naharnet/December 13/2019
Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Friday hailed a political "earthquake" after securing a sweeping election win, which clears the way for Britain to finally leave the European Union next month after years of political deadlock. With almost all results declared for the 650-seat parliament, Johnson's Conservative party had secured 362 seats -- its biggest majority since the heyday of Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s. By contrast the main opposition Labour party endured a terrible night, losing 59 seats to 203, forcing leader Jeremy Corbyn to announce plans for his departure. The anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats announced they would replaced Jo Swinson as leader after she lost her seat in western Scotland to the Scottish National Party (SNP). The pound had risen late Thursday on hopes that Johnson will now deliver his promise to "Get Brexit Done" after years of uncertainty over Britain's future.
With a large majority of MPs, he will be able to get the divorce deal he struck with Brussels through parliament in time to meet the next Brexit deadline of January 31. Ratifying the deal would formalise the end of almost five decades of EU-UK integration, although both sides still need to thrash out a new trade and security agreement. France's European affairs minister, Amelie de Montchalin, was the first EU politician to welcome the indications of "a clear majority, something that has been missing in the United Kingdom for several years". It signals a personal victory for Johnson, a former London mayor and foreign minister who helped lead the Brexit campaign to victory in the 2016 EU referendum. US President Donald Trump tweeted his congratulations on a "great win", and said London and Washington would be able to strike a "massive new trade deal" after Brexit. "This deal has the potential to be far bigger and more lucrative than any deal that could be made with the E.U. Celebrate Boris!" he said.
Taking the north
The Conservatives had been ahead in opinion polls for weeks but the scale of their victory, after a wet and windy winter election, was unexpected. The party took a string of traditionally Labour seats that had not voted Tory for decades, but many of which had backed "Leave" in 2016. "We must understand now what an earthquake we have created," Johnson later told party staff, according to the Press Association news agency. He earlier declared when he was re-elected as an MP that voters had given him "a powerful new mandate to get Brexit done". Johnson now has up to five years to govern until he is obliged to call another election.
Labour collapse
Labour by contrast was heading to its worst result since 1935, with around 203 seats, after what Corbyn admitted had been a "very disappointing night". He said he would be stepping down after a period of "reflection", and would not be leading the party into the next election, which is due by 2024.
Corbyn had promised a second referendum on Brexit, in a bid to appeal to half of British voters who still want to stay in the EU. But he had focused Labour's campaign on a radical programme of economic change, including re-nationalising some key industries, which failed to woo traditional voters. Speaking in the early hours of Friday morning, Corbyn defended his "manifesto of hope" and maintained his policies were "extremely popular" during the campaign. But he said: "Brexit has so polarised and divided debate in this country, it has overridden so much of a normal political debate."
Corbyn is personally unpopular and dogged by accusations of sympathising with proscribed terror groups and failing to tackle anti-Semitism within the Labour party. This is Labour's fourth successive electoral defeat -- and the second under Corbyn.
- Softer Brexit?
The Lib Dems were predicted to win 11 seats, down one on the last election in 2017. Analysts said Swinson's campaign to reverse Brexit without even a new referendum was unpopular, while efforts to create a "Remain" alliance to stop Brexit failed. Nigel Dodds, the British parliament leader of the Democratic Unionist Party which propped up the Tories under Johnson's predecessor Theresa May, lost his seat in North Belfast. By contrast the Scottish National Party (SNP), which wants to stop Brexit and deliver an independent Scotland, gained 13 seats to reach 48. Elsewhere, Nigel Farage's Brexit Party failed to win any seats, but he claimed to have helped Johnson standing down his own candidates in Tory-held seats. Johnson has promised to put his Brexit plan to parliament before the Christmas break, although it will not likely be ratified until January. He has then just 11 months to agree a new partnership with the EU before a post-Brexit transition period ends in December 2020. But with a comfortable majority in parliament, analysts note he could choose to extend that time and negotiate a closer trade deal than previously envisaged.
"Ironically, this is a freer hand for Johnson to negotiate a softer version of Brexit," said Simon Hix of the London School of Economics.

Congress Panel Approves Trump Charges, Sets Up Impeachment Vote
Agence France Press/Naharnet/December 13/2019
U.S. lawmakers took the grave step Friday of approving two charges against Donald Trump, setting up a full House of Representatives vote to impeach the president over his alleged misconduct. Democrats and Republicans in the House Judiciary Committee voted along strict party lines, 23 to 17, appearing somber as they put Trump on track to become only the third president to be impeached in U.S. history.

Macron Warns Britain against 'Unfair Competition' after Brexit
Agence France Presse/Annahar/December 13/2019
French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday warned Britain against "unfair" competition with the EU after Brexit, following Boris Johnson's resounding election win. "My hope is that the United Kingdom remains an ally, a friend and an extremely close partner. The condition is to define the rules of a fair relationship," Macron said after an EU summit in Brussels, amid fears London will seek to lower taxes and regulations after Brexit.
"We do not want Britain to be an unfair competitor."

France, Germany, Italy Urge End to Libya Fighting
Agence France Presse/Annahar/December 13/2019
The leaders of France, Germany and Italy urged all sides in the Libyan conflict to cease fighting Friday, after strongman Khalifa Haftar threatened to assault Tripoli. After an EU summit in Brussels, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel and Giuseppe Conte said stability in Libya "can only be achieved through a political solution." The trio did not mention Haftar by name, but their statement was issued after he announced a "decisive battle and the advance on the heart of Tripoli."The capital is held by Libya's U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), but Haftar, supported by the United Arab Emirates, says it backs "terrorists." European powers are worried further violence could disrupt fragile efforts to negotiate peace, including an upcoming international conference in Berlin. The three urged "all Libyan and international parties to cease military action, make a sincere commitment to a comprehensive and lasting cessation of hostilities and resume a credible U.N.-led negotiation process. "They reaffirmed their full support for the United Nations and the work of the Special Representative of the Secretary General, Ghassan Salame, as lasting peace and stability in Libya can only be achieved through a political solution," the statement said. At least 200 civilians and more than 2,000 fighters have been killed since April, the start of Haftar's push on Tripoli, according to the United Nations. The fighting has also displaced some 146,000 people.

Israel Hails Johnson Win as Defeat for Anti-Semitism
Agence France Presse/Annahar/December 13/2019
Israel Friday hailed the election defeat of Britain's Labor Party as a "milestone in the fight against hatred" after its leadership was accused of inaction against anti-Semitism in its ranks. "I congratulate British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the UK Conservative Party on a decisive victory," Foreign Minister Israel Katz said. "This is not just a political victory, it is first and foremost a victory of values. "The specter of anti-Semitism loomed large over this campaign, and the British public overwhelmingly voted against it, in what is, in our opinion, a testament to British history and values. "It serves as an important milestone in the fight against hatred." A veteran left-winger, first elected to parliament in 1983, Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn has long been dogged by accusations, which resurfaced during the campaign, that he had turned a blind eye to growing anti-Semitism within the party. Corbyn supporters countered that the 70-year-old is a lifelong opponent of racism in all its forms and was targeted because of his longstanding support for the Palestinian cause. With almost all results declared from Thursday's election, Johnson's Conservative party had secured 362 of the 650 seats in parliament -- its biggest majority since the heyday of Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s.Labor lost 59 seats to leave it with 203, prompting Corbyn to announce plans for his departure.

Putin Seeks 'Constructive Dialogue' with UK's Johnson
Agence France Presse/Annahar/December 13/2019
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday called for "constructive dialogue" with Britain's Boris Johnson as he congratulated him on a decisive general election victory. "I am sure that the development of constructive dialogue and cooperation in various spheres would be fully in the interests of our countries' peoples and the entire European continent," he said in a statement. Earlier Friday the Kremlin said it doubted however that Johnson's election victory would change Russian-UK ties for the better. Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow always hopes an election brings to power voices in favor of "good relations" with Russia but was not sure that would be the case with Johnson's Conservative Party. "I don't know to what extent such expectations are appropriate in the case of the Conservatives," Peskov told journalists. Fragile ties between Moscow and London have been shredded after the 2018 poisoning of the former Russian spy and double agent Sergei Skripal, which the UK has blamed on Russia. The incident led to dozens of tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions. Russia has repeatedly denied any part in his killing. The case had strong echoes of the poisoning of former Russian agent Alexander Litvinenko in Britain in 2006.

Turkey summons US envoy over Armenian genocide vote
Arab News/December 13/2019
ISTANBUL: Turkey summoned the US ambassador on Friday after the US Senate voted to recognize the 1915 killings of Armenians as genocide. Deputy foreign minister Sedat Onal delivered the government’s reaction to envoy David Satterfield, said the foreign ministry, after Turkish officials warned that the vote endangered relations. American senators followed the House of Representatives in voting to recognize the killings of Armenians during the First World War as genocide, for which the Ottoman Empire — the forerunner of modern-day Turkey — bore responsibility. Armenia claims 1.5 million died in the killings. Turkey says the number of deaths was far lower and Turks also died, blaming the killings on the First World War. The US is now in line with 30 other countries in recognizing Armenia’s claim of genocide. A US embassy spokesman in Ankara however told AFP that the Senate vote had not changed the administration’s position, pointing out that US President Donald Trump had stopped short of calling the killings genocide earlier this year. The Congress resolution had been blocked several times by allies of Trump, who has sought a close relationship with NATO ally Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During a meeting in Washington last month, Trump said he was a “big fan” of Erdogan despite opposition from many in the Congress to the red-carpet welcome.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 13-14/2019
Iran's Plan to Foil the Gaza Ceasefire
Khaled Abu Toameh/Khaled Abu Toameh/December 13/ 2019
The protesters are saying, in other words, that the Iranian people are fed up watching their country deliver hundreds of millions of dollars to Palestinian and Lebanese terrorist groups instead of improving the economic situation in Iran.
Iran is apparently determined to pursue its goal of exporting its "Islamic Revolution" to as many Arab countries as possible, including the Palestinian arena. Another Iranian goal: the elimination of Israel.
This is how Iran's leaders see the situation: "We are not sending these groups and militias cash and guns so that they can strike ceasefire deals."
That is why it is safe to assume that even if the Egyptians manage to secure any kind of a ceasefire between the Palestinian groups and Israel, the leaders of Tehran will do their utmost to obstruct such an agreement.
This is how Iran's leaders see their relations with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad: "We are not sending these groups and militias cash and guns so that they can strike ceasefire deals. As long as we're supplying them with money and weapons, they must do anything we want." Pictured: A senior Hamas delegation, headed by military leader Saleh Arouri, meets with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a visit to Iran, July 22, 2019. (Image source: khamenei.ir)
Iran seems concerned that its Palestinian allies in the Gaza Strip may reach a long-term ceasefire with Israel. That is probably why Iran summoned leaders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) to Tehran after reports in the Arab media suggested that the Egyptians have made significant progress in their efforts to achieve a long-term ceasefire between the Gaza-based Palestinian factions, including Hamas and PIJ.
According to the reports, the leaders of Hamas and PIJ who visited Cairo agreed to a long-term ceasefire with Israel. Both groups reportedly told the Egyptians that they would commit to the proposed ceasefire only if Israel halts targeted killings of Hamas and PIJ operatives.
Despite the reports, PIJ officials were quoted as denying that they had agreed to "consolidate" the ceasefire understandings reached with Israel earlier this year under the auspices of Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations. The PIJ leaders reportedly informed the Egyptian mediators that while they were opposed to a long-term ceasefire with Israel, they would honor a formula according to which "calm would be met with calm." What PIJ is saying, in other words, is that they will attack Israel only in response to Israeli "aggression" on the Gaza Strip.
Hamas has also denied the reports about an imminent Egyptian-brokered long-term ceasefire with Israel. Yahya Musa, a senior Hamas official in the Gaza Strip, dismissed the reports as "nonsense" and "fake news."
Another senior Hamas official, Mahmoud Zahar, downplayed the reports about a possible long-term ceasefire with Israel. He said that even if his group agrees to a temporary cessation of terror attacks against Israel, that would be only to allow Hamas to continue stockpiling weapons. "There's no ignoring our main goal: the liberation of all of Palestine," Zahar explained. "Whoever tries to portray the calm as a form of security cooperation or agreement with the [Israeli] enemy is mistaken."
The statements by the Hamas and PIJ leaders contradict the sense of optimism voiced by the Egyptians after the ceasefire discussions in Cairo in the past week.
The Egyptian optimism is apparently based on what Cairo's senior intelligence officials heard from Hamas and PIJ during closed door meetings. Both groups reportedly assured the Egyptians that the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip are interested in preserving the ceasefire understandings with Israel.
Yet, the moment the Hamas and PIJ leaders left Cairo earlier this week, they appeared to recant the announcement. They categorically denied the reports and claimed that "significant progress" had been reached towards achieving a long-term ceasefire with Israel.
Is it possible that the two groups lied to the Egyptians by leading them to believe that Hamas and PIJ are keen on a prolonged period of calm with Israel? Or is there another reason why Hamas and PIJ are now telling everyone that they never agreed to the Egyptian ceasefire proposal?
There is only one explanation as to why Hamas and PIJ seem to be in a panic: fear of Iran's response to any deal with Israel. Hamas and PIJ have long been receiving financial, political and military aid from Iran so that they could continue the jihad against Israel. Obviously, Iran cannot afford to lose its Palestinian proxies, particularly not when Tehran's militiamen and political agents are increasing their activities in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon.
A PIJ delegation headed by the group's secretary general, Ziyad al-Nakhalah, is now on its way to Tehran, where its members are expected to assure the Iranian leaders that, as a result of the discussions in Cairo, they have not abandoned the fight against Israel.
Iran's main objective is evidently to ensure that Hamas and PIJ will continue to serve as its trusted agents in its war against Israel. Arab political analysts believe the Iranians are now seeking to retaliate for Israeli airstrikes on pro-Iranian militias and bases in Iraq and Syria.
"Iran wants to use the Palestinian Islamic Jihad rockets as a response to Israel's missile attacks on pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq," said Arab political analyst Abdel Moneim Ibrahim. "At the same time, however, Iran does not want to expand the scope of military confrontation to a point where Israel would target bases of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard inside Iran. The biggest tragedy in this game between Israel and Iran and its proxy in the Gaza Strip is that there are dozens of innocent Palestinians dying in every confrontation."
Iran's policy seems to be keeping the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian groups in the Gaza Strip on a low flame.
That policy means a slow drip of rockets attacking Israel from the Gaza Strip every now and then, while making sure that the violence does not deteriorate into an all-out war in the Hamas-ruled coastal enclave.
The Iranians are well aware that such a war could result in the total destruction of its proxies in the Gaza Strip, while sporadic rocket attacks will only draw a restrained response from Israel.
The Iranian plan to foil a long-term ceasefire in the Gaza Strip may also be seen as part of Tehran's effort to divert attention from the widespread protests that have erupted in Iran in recent weeks. Dozens of protesters have been killed during demonstrations against a fuel subsidy cut.
What is probably most disturbing for Iran's leaders are the slogans some of the protesters have been shouting: "No to Gaza, no to Lebanon."
These slogans are directed against Iran's financial support for Hamas and PIJ in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The protesters are saying, in other words, that the Iranian people are fed up watching their country deliver hundreds of millions of dollars to Palestinian and Lebanese terrorist groups instead of improving the economic situation in Iran.
Palestinians say that in addition to the financial and military aid to Hamas and PIJ, Iran has also been funding various projects in the Gaza Strip, including building new homes and paying stipends to families of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel for their involvement in terrorism against Israelis.
Palestinian political analyst Mohammed Anabtawi believes that the Iranian aid is aimed at "sabotaging" Egypt's efforts to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and "driving a wedge" between Hamas and the President Mahmoud Abbas's West Bank-based Palestinian Authority. "If Iran was sincere about its aid, it would have channeled it through the Palestinian Authority," Anabtawi said. "But this is politically motivated aid with an agenda that does not serve the interests of the Palestinians. Iran is playing the Gaza card as part of its conflicts in other parts of the world."
Iran is apparently determined to pursue its goal of exporting its "Islamic Revolution" to as many Arab countries as possible, including the Palestinian arena. Another Iranian goal: the elimination of Israel.
Iran can achieve its goal only if its proxies and militias continue to meddle in the internal affairs of the Arab countries and launch more attacks against Israel.
This is how Iran's leaders see the situation: "We are not sending these groups and militias cash and guns so that they can strike ceasefire deals. As long as we're supplying them with money and weapons, they must do anything we want."
That is why it is safe to assume that even if the Egyptians manage to secure any kind of a ceasefire between the Palestinian groups and Israel, the leaders of Tehran will do their utmost to obstruct such an agreement.
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

What’s Worse: “Terrorist Groups” or “Terrorist Nations”? Pensacola in Context
Raymond Ibrahim/FrontPage Magazine/December 13/ 2019
One of the most meaningless statements made by CNN concerning the recent Pensacola naval air station shooting—where Ahmed Muhammad Alshamrani, a Saudi man, killed three people and injured eight—was to say “It does not appear Alshamrani had ties to terrorist groups, two sources told CNN. He had been training at the Florida base for two years, according to a spokesman for the assistant to the defense secretary.”
The fact is, just being born and bred in Saudi Arabia, as Alshamrani was, is enough to inculcate “terrorism”—that is, hate for and possibly violence against non-Muslims—into the hearts and minds of its inhabitants. One need not also have actual “ties to terrorist groups.”
Osama bin Laden, also born and raised in Saudi Arabia, is a perfect example. He was not eventually evicted for screaming bloody jihad or hate for infidels—both mainstream aspects of Saudi teaching—but for publicly accusing the Saudi crown of not practicing the jihad it preached.
If this seems exaggerated, consider some facts about our “good friend and ally,”™ Saudi Arabia. It has actually published online a fatwa, an Islamic-sanctioned opinion—in Arabic only—entitled, “Duty to Hate Jews, Polytheists, and Other Infidels” (my translation here). It comes from the fatwa wing of the government, meaning it has the full weight of the Saudi crown behind it. According to this governmentally-supported fatwa, all Muslims must “oppose and hate whomever Allah commands us to oppose and hate, including the Jews, the Christians, and other mushrikin [polytheists], until they believe in Allah alone and abide by his laws, which he sent down to his Prophet Muhammad, peace and blessings upon him” (see Koran 60:4).
Unsurprisingly, not a single non-Muslim building of worship is allowed in Saudi Arabia; its highest Islamic authority decreed that it is “necessary to destroy all the churches of the region.” Whenever Christians are suspected of secretly meeting in a house for worship—or as one Saudi official once complained, “plotting to celebrate Christmas”—they are arrested and punished. Any cross or other non-Muslim symbol found is confiscated and destroyed. Anyone caught trying to smuggle Bibles or any other “publications that have prejudice to any other religious belief other than Islam” can be executed.
Such sponsored hate has thoroughly permeated Saudi society. A Colombian soccer-player “was arrested by the Saudi moral police after customers in a Riyadh shopping mall expressed outrage over the sports player’s religious tattoos, which included the face of Jesus of Nazareth on his arm.” A Romanian player kissed the tattoo of a cross he had on his arm after scoring a goal, causing public outrage.
It all starts with the Saudi education system, which indoctrinates Muslim children into believing that “the Apes are the people of the Sabbath, the Jews; and the Swine are the infidels of the communion of Jesus, the Christians.” “As early as first grade,” Human Rights Watch reports, “students in Saudi schools are being taught hatred toward all those perceived to be of a different faith or school of thought… The lessons in hate are reinforced with each following year.” Nor have any of Saudi Arabia’s promises for educational reform been fulfilled. According to a December 2018 report,
audi Arabia had previously pledged to remove all incitement content from its textbooks by 2008 and the government continues to allege that this issue has long since been resolved. However, other reports say otherwise. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom issued a study this past March which says that the curriculum contains incitement content which had been thought removed. Examples of this content include demeaning non-Muslims and encouraging jihad against them. The execution of apostates is prescribed and children are encouraged not to associate with non-Muslims. Saudi Arabia not only continues to use these textbooks domestically, but exports them to other parts of the Middle East.
Indeed, Saudi-sponsored hate literature is found in mosques and Islamic centers all across the U.S.
Little wonder that one of 35 Christian Ethiopians who were arrested and abused in prison for almost a year—simply for holding a private house prayer—said after he was released: “They [Saudis] are full of hatred towards non-Muslims.” Or to quote novelist Hani Naqshabandi, “Our religious institutions do not give us room to exercise free thought…. They [Saudi institutions] said that the Christian is an infidel, a denizen of hell, an enemy to Allah and Islam. So we said, ‘Allah’s curse on them…. Christians [here] are in need of protection.”
Again, bear in mind that all of this hate is official Saudi policy, enforced by the heads of state themselves—not the aberrant beliefs of some random “terrorist group.”
In light of this, is it surprising to find that a Saudi, in this case, a second lieutenant in the Royal Saudi Air Force, has committed an act of terrorism against Americans—that is, the infidels he was taught to hate from birth—even though he has no formal “ties to terrorist organizations,” as CNN observed? Is it surprising that ten other Saudis were arrested in connection and more are on the run?
Is it, for that matter, surprising to recall that 15 of the 19 suicide hijackers of 9/11 were Saudis—and some of them, including Mohamad Atta, had also learned to fly in the U.S., ironically, also in Florida?
There is, however, some good news, that is, some common sense made manifest: the “Navy has grounded more than 300 Saudi nationals training to be pilots after the shooting rampage last week at Pensacola Naval Air Station.”
Is that because they all have possible ties to various and individual terrorist groups? Or is it because—and are U.S. authorities actually appreciating what it means that—they have ties to Saudi Arabia?

Trump’s Iran strategy is working. Here’s why
Saeed Ghasseminejad/Foundation for Defense of Democracies/December 13/ 2019
Senior Iran and Financial Economics Advisor
President Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran is working, despite warnings of a backlash against the U.S. for the economic sanctions he has imposed on the Islamic Republic.
As protests continue in Iran, security forces may have killed over 1,000 people who are calling for an end to the country’s dictatorship, U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Brian Hook told reporters recently.
The continuing protests show that the Iranian people are directing their anger at Tehran’s corrupt and oppressive regime, even though American sanctions helped push Iran into a deep recession.
The Trump administration’s withdrawal in May 2018 from President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran marked the beginning of the U.S. turn to maximum pressure.
Within days, a pair of Stanford University political scientists were saying the Trump strategy was destined to fail. Abbas Milani and Michael McFaul (who was Obama’s ambassador to Russia) said: “Patriotic Iranians, including those opposed to the autocratic regime, are now likely to rally around the flag.”
At first, the pressure on Iran increased gradually. Most sanctions did not return until November 2018, six months after President Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal.
Another six months passed before the Trump administration got serious about cutting off Iran’s oil exports – the key to its economy. But now it’s clear that the Iranian economy is in dire straits.
Last month, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said: “Iran is experiencing one of its hardest years since the 1979 Islamic revolution. We have never had so many problems in selling oil. We never had so many problems in keeping our oil tanker fleet sailing. Without money, we cannot run the affairs of the state.”
A few days later, in search of revenue, Rouhani made the mistake that ignited the current protests – he decided to ration gasoline and increase prices by as much as 200 percent.
An unprecedented wave of protests swept across 719 locations across the country. Not only did the regime murder protesters – it sought to cover up its violence by stealing corpses from the morgue and abducting injured demonstrators from hospitals. Thousands of others wound up in prison.
Predictions aside, maximum pressure is doing fine; the Iranian regime is not.
One important cause of poverty for Iran’s 80 million people is the corruption and incompetence of their rulers. Yet thanks to Obama’s nuclear deal and the relief it provided, the regime was able to get by.
Obama and his top advisers even predicted that new sanctions would not have much effect on Iran. That turned out to be wrong as well.
Iranian oil exports have dropped from 2.8 million barrels per day before the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal to somewhere between 250,000 and 600,000 barrels per day over the past few months. China and Syria, the main importers of Iranian oil, may not even be paying in hard currency.
Unable to sell oil for dollars or euros, Iran’s currency reserves are diminishing fast. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates Iran’s reserves will drop from $101.1 billion last year to $85.5 billion at the end of this year and $68.8 billion next year.
To make things worse, Tehran does not have full access to all its reserves, which may be in escrow accounts held by China and others. The U.S. government estimates that only 10 percent of Iran’s reserves are fully accessible.
What all this adds up to is an awful combination of deep recession and high inflation, or stagflation. In October, the IMF said Iran’s gross domestic product will shrink by 9.5 percent this year, a number on par with failed states like Libya and Venezuela.
The World Bank estimate was just slightly better: a drop of 8.7 percent.
Both the IMF and the World Bank put the inflation rate in Iran in the upper 30 percent range – the fifth-highest in the world this year. They predict inflation will stabilize at a lower level in coming years and the Iranian economy will gradually recover – but don’t bet on it.
While the short-term effect of raising gasoline prices has been mass protests, the long-term effect may be even higher inflation.
The IMF and the World Bank also have a track record of underestimating the impact of sanctions. So unless the U.S. lifts sanctions on Iran, economic growth is highly unlikely.
Without hard currency, Iran won’t be able to import intermediate and capital goods, nor will be it be able to invest infrastructure. Plus, American pressure is still far from its potential maximum, despite the name of Trump’s strategy.
For now, Iran’s non-oil exports remain relatively healthy – official statistics (which may be unreliable) say they have only fallen about 11 percent in value.
The U.S. has sanctions in place on key exports like metals and petrochemicals, which make up half of this sector, but Washington is not enforcing them aggressively. The U.S. could also sanction intermediate and capital goods, so that Iran can’t buy them even if it comes up with the money.
Since Trump’s inauguration, Iran has seen the two most widespread waves of protest since the birth of the Islamic Republic.
Despite the consensus among Beltway insiders that maximum pressure would fail or even make things worse, the Trump administration’s unilateral sanctions have been immensely successful and have put the Iranian regime on edge. Now it needs a final push back into the abyss of hatred, bigotry and evil that it rose from.
*Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior Iran and financial economics adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (@FDD). Follow him on Twitter @SGhasseminejad. FDD is a nonprofit, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) research institute focusing on foreign policy and national security. FDD does not accept donations from foreign governments.

Boris Johnson Is Hiding the Real Price of Brexit
Therese Raphael/Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/ 2019
With only a few days left before the UK votes, it’s unlikely many voters will be swayed by the leaked Treasury department documents Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn dramatically revealed at a press conference on Friday. And yet the papers provide a glimpse of the hangover that could follow any “Brexit bounce” should the Conservatives win the parliamentary majority predicted by the polls.
The 15-page internal briefing document, marked “official sensitive,” examines the financial implications of various aspects of Brexit in relation to Northern Ireland. Anyone looking at the volume of trade at stake would be forgiven for thinking these are mere details, the snag-list a new homeowner goes through with a builder. Northern Ireland represents just 2% of the British economy, after all.
But the Northern Ireland trade arrangements are of huge significance because of the sometimes fragile peace achieved by the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. It also has a bearing on the UK’s own increasingly fragile constitutional order. Tory leader Boris Johnson enraged his former allies in Democratic Unionist Party because his Brexit deal creates a de facto trade border between the UK mainland and the province; the leaked memo won’t have improved their mood.
Article 6 of the Northern Ireland Protocol in Johnson’s revised deal says “nothing in the protocol shall prevent the United Kingdom from ensuring unfettered market access for goods moving from Northern Ireland to other parts of the United Kingdom’s internal market.” The second page of the leaked document quotes this undertaking. But it then goes on to list the many possible interpretations of the term “unfettered access.” Does it mean a “lack of restrictions on goods?” Or regulatory alignment between the mainland and Northern Ireland, or the reduction of administrative costs when transferring goods, or the elimination of physical inspections? It’s unclear.
Northern Ireland exports 11.4 billion pounds ($14.9 billion) of goods to England, Scotland, and Wales, 53% of its total external sales. A small group of large companies, accounting for nearly 40% of export volume, will more easily absorb any new costs. But most businesses exporting from Northern Ireland are small- and medium-sized enterprises. Customs declarations and documentary checks “will be highly disruptive to the Northern Ireland economy,” says the Treasury document, suggesting the government act to reduce the burden on smaller traders.
The Treasury assumes that “unfettered access” will mean goods traveling from Northern Ireland to the mainland will be part of a common area for value-added tax, and that there will be no tariffs, quotas or “rules of origin” checks. But it acknowledges that there would be checks on plant and animal goods and customs declarations. There are plenty of question marks (literally indicated as such in the document) on what other trade frictions will exist in the new regime.
As for east-to-west trade — from the mainland into Northern Ireland — much will depend on negotiations with the European Union, which will establish the terms of reference for assessing which goods are “at risk” of landing in the EU’s single market by crossing the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.
Most alarming, the leaked document says that physical checks and customs declarations going both ways “will be highly disruptive to the NI economy.” The result will be higher consumer prices, which will hit retail jobs. Johnson constantly dismisses the possibility of such frictions, but the Treasury is clear about the danger of Northern Ireland without checks becoming a back door into Britain for goods that avoid import duties or don’t meet origin requirements or UK regulatory standards.
Then there are the so-called “high level” effects. The physical separation of Northern Ireland “has the potential to undermine the coherence of the UK’s internal market and embed a fundamental asymmetry in its functioning,” the Treasury says. Johnson’s best hope at avoiding the checks would be a close regulatory relationship with Europe — exactly what his his predecessor Theresa May’s much-hated Chequers proposals sought. But that would lose him the support of Brexiters and the possibility of a trade deal with US President Donald Trump.
And it’s not just the Treasury that sees the practical flaws in Johnson’s plans. The Financial Times reported this week on a document from the country’s Brexit ministry, which warns that the government may not have the new Northern Ireland trade system ready to go before it concludes broader trade talks with the EU.None of this has been subject to cross-examination during the election campaign, beyond Corbyn’s belated press conference. Brexit secretary Steve Barclay admitted to the new Northern Ireland trade frictions at a House of Lords hearing in October, but Johnson has denied repeatedly that his deal would lead to any such hassles, frictions or uncertainties.
In some ways, Johnson’s refusal to deal with reality is the bigger problem. With frank discussion and transparency, the public might be prepared for a degree of disruption. But the Tory leader is either refusing to engage honestly with his deal, or he doesn’t understand it. Neither bodes well.
As for Thursday’s election, none of this will keep most English voters awake at night. For some time, the polls have shown that Brexit supporters would willingly see Northern Ireland or Scotland leave the union if it meant getting Brexit done.
Still, the revelation underscores just how much is yet to be negotiated and what’s at stake for Britain’s own union. It’s a reminder too of the trust issues that have always plagued Johnson. How big a problem this becomes for him depends on the size of his majority if he wins. After that, much will depend on the EU, where he’ll have to negotiate the terms of those frictions he denies will exist.

Despots of the Square-Kilometer Empires
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/ 2019
In a recent speech in Tehran Ayatollah Golpayegani, Chief of Staff of “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei claimed that his boss had reached a position from which he not only led the Muslim world but also dictated to infidel powers, now in retreat.
Critics of the ayatollah might dismiss that as hyperbole beyond limits, flattery being the bane of many Middle Eastern cultures.
What if Golpayegani believes what he says?
That cannot be dismissed, especially as a chorus of flatterers isolates Khamenei from the harsh realities of life.
Self-styled philosophers claim that Khamenei is the greatest philosopher since Aristotle or, not to ruffle Muslim feathers, since Ibn Sina. Versifiers praise Khamenei as the greatest Persian poet since Sa’adi or Hafez, although only a few courtesans have heard his compositions.
The “Supreme Guide” is supposed to be excellent in everything.
He has written on Islamic cuisine, the methodology of successful marriage, the destruction of Israel, the reform of human sciences, a new Islamic civilization to replace the old one that has decayed, and, as an afterthought, radical re-ordering of global order.
History is full of examples of leaders who, prisoners in a cocoon, dream of ruling the world.
Persian literature has many examples of dime-for-a-line poets composing panegyrics for dwarfish potentates lording it over a remote backwater but thinking of themselves as new Cyrus or Alexander.
In most cases, the leader who is isolated from reality falls victim to a political form of autism or, worse still, total alienation. Unable to maintain normal contact with society, notably by traveling and meeting different sorts of people, the alienated leader loses the sense of discernment between the real world and the imaginary universe invented by his entourage.
The late Majid Davami, one of the editors who trained me as a journalist, referred to such leaders as “emperors of a prayer rug”, that is to say dictators whose real writ does not run beyond a tiny carpet even if woven of silk and gold.
Half a century later, and taking into account that we have lived in an age of inflation, I suggest we extend that metaphoric prayer rug to give the rulers in question a larger space, say one square kilometer, which is closer to reality than one might think.
Where did Abbasid Caliphs spend most of their lives, before being assassinated by Mongol bodyguards, when Baghdad, was the center of the world? In a single square kilometer that is nowadays cut in half by Abu Nuwas Avenue (Shar’e Abu-Nuwas). Because things do not change as much as we think or hope, the new Iraqi ruling elite is confined to the “Green Zone” a stone’s throw away.
The Akhund of Swat, the 19th century mullah who declared Jihad on the British Raj in what is now Pakistan, lived in a cave surrounded by a garden, no more than one square kilometer.
More recently, we had Josef Stalin who, at the height of his power, hardly set foot out of the Kremlin and Adolf Hitler who had one square kilometer in Berlin and another in Berchtesgaden.
Rafael Trujillo, the Dominican Republic’s dictator in the 1950s decided to beautify his one-square kilometer palace-prison in Santo Domingo with a giant lighthouse that consumed half of the island’s electricity. As bad luck struck, Trujillo became blind when the lighthouse was completed. So, he spent the rest of his life imagining the light that his toy shed on the Caribbean.
Haiti’s dictator, Francois Duvalier, alias Papa-Doc, left his one-square kilometer only once, to bury his favorite dog in Port-au-Prince’s central park.
Over the years, as a journalist, I met a number of one-square kilometer “emperors” who, as the French say, belched bigger than their mouths.
Muammar Gaddafi lived in a cage in Tripoli. I was shocked to hear that he had not had time, or courage, to visit Benghazi in years.
I interviewed the Sudanese despot Jaafar Nimeiri in his “square-kilometer” universe. Pacing in his salon, waiting to be received, the curtain on one of the bay windows caught fire causing his bodyguards to panic and run out.
Iraqi despot Saddam Hussein, too, was confined in his square-kilometer patch whenever we met before he decided to invade Iran.
As for General Muhammad Siad Barre, the Somali dictator, I am not sure that he even had a full square kilometer. I met him in Mogadishu’s central barrack at 3:00 am because he feared that if he went to his palace, soldiers might stage a coup against him.
I had a surrealistic dinner with the Congolese dictator, Denis Sassou N’guesso, in his capital Brazzaville that had been turned into piles of rubble in a four-month civil war against rivals. He suggested that I visit the beauties of his city, unaware that nothing but ugliness was left.
In the 1970s, on a first visit to Beijing, I was not granted an interview with Mao Zedong because he was be “too busy”.
In the 1980s, on two occasions when we met Robert Mugabe he expressed hope to leave his square-kilometer patch in Harare, for a visit to Bulawayo that had never submitted to his domination. As far as we know, he never did.
I doubt if any of the last Soviet dictators, including Leonid Brezhnev whom we met, ever left the square-kilometer confine. Brezhnev had palaces, euphemistically called “villa” in all the capitals of the 14 Soviet republics outside Moscow. But, people told us he had never visited any of them.
Yuri Andropov’s patch was even smaller, the size of a bed where he was attached to a dialysis machine for his kidneys.
Today, Syrian regime head Bashar Assad is confined to his square-kilometer close to Damascus with no chance of ever roaming in other parts of the war-torn country. General Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian master of PR, claims he prevented Assad from fleeing because Khamenei ordered him to stay put which, in practice, means the Syrian became a prisoner like Khamenei.
Today, Yemeni Houthis are boxed in their “empire” in the old Ottoman quarter of Sanaa.
In autobiographical notes, Khamenei waxes lyrical about the joys of visiting Shiite “holy” shrines in Iraq. Today, he dares not set foot in an Iraq shaken by uprisings against his ideology. Worse still, fearful of visiting even Mash’had, Iran’s own “holy” city, he has to be content with a hussainiyah he built near a “villa” confiscated by the revolution.

Towards an Arab Initiative to Resolve Syria’s Crisis
Ramzi Ezzedine Ramzi/Asharq Al Awsat/December 13/ 2019
Lately we have been picking-up signals about Arab diplomatic engagement on some of the conflicts and disputes that have plagued the Middle East region in the past few years. This is, no doubt, a positive development. Finally, it seems that a realization has dawned that dialogue not confrontation is not only a more effective means to address political differences, but a better way to secure ones own interests, whether amongst Arabs or between Arabs and their neighbors.
Absent from what appears to be a mildly optimistic picture, however, is Syria. It is difficult to discern any visible Arab interest in playing an active collective role in achieving a political settlement in this crucial country. Now that the military conflict is winding down, it is all the more important for Arab countries to engage. This is the only way that they can play a role in influencing the settlement of the Syrian conflict, and in so doing play a major role in charting the course of the future of the region. Failure to do so, will not only leave Syria even more susceptible to the interests of non-Arab regional powers, but also further open the region to sustained and unwelcome external interventions. Recent history has amply demonstrated the heavy toll, material and human, of such interventions.
Henry Kissinger is reputed to have said, he who controls Syria controls the Middle East. It is in the strategic interest of all Arab countries, for Syria to survive as a nation state, reformed in a way that meets the aspirations of its people for a better life.
Whereas Arab countries tried to play a constructive role in the early stages of the conflict. This came to an abrupt end when the Arab peacekeeping mission was precipitately withdrawn in January 2012. As a consequence, regrettably and very rapidly Arab countries, both by action or inaction, have not made any significant or meaningful joint contribution to bringing about a political settlement. Policies pursued by different Arab countries, have in effect, undermined long-term Arab interests. They permitted regional powers to encroach on Syria. The prolongation of the conflict has allowed Iran to further entrench itself. Inaction has opened the door for Turkey to practically occupy parts of the country. Also both the US and RF have established military presence in the country.
That is not to say that Arab countries have not been totally absent from the scene. The problem is that they have never been able to take a common independent position. True they were visible and present in all international fora dealing with Syria, but they never collectively presented concrete substantive proposals for a political settlement. The future of Syria will ultimately be decided by the Syrians themselves. However, Syria being crucial for the future of the region, regional and international powers will always try to influence the course of events in the country.
In these circumstances, the questions is: Is it in the interest of the Arabs to sit on the sidelines and allow Syria to fend for itself against regional and international interests? More importantly for the Arabs: Can they secure their long-term interests by remaining inactive in the quest for a political settlement?
Arab states are, now once again, faced with two choices: Action or inaction. This time with the military conflict practically over, the course of action available is how to contribute, in a concrete manner, to the political settlement. On the other hand, inaction would further erode their influence in Syria and, undermine their capability in shaping the future of their region.
At this stage, the best course of action open for Arab countries is: How to engage the Syrian government and on what terms.
UNSCR 2254 represents the internationally agreed framework for a political settlement. All major international and regional powers are committed to its full implementation. Moreover, Damascus in spite of it’s view on the resolution, has been engaged in it’s implementation.
Although the long-awaited Constitutional Committee has finally been established, the political process as envisaged in UNSCR 2254 remains uncertain. That is largely due to GOS continued suspicion of the true intentions of both the US and some Europeans, the unrealistic positions of both the EU and the US about the terms of engaging Damascus, particularly on the issue of reconstruction, the difficult relationship between Iran and many Arab countries and, last but not least Arab passiveness.
Both the US and the EU have set strict conditions for financing reconstruction and normalizing relations with Damascus: The US removal of Iranian military presence and, the EU: When a political transition is firmly underway. Neither of these conditions can be implemented without engagement with Damascus. Arab countries may be in a position to help in this regard.
Without reconstruction there is no chance for stability in Syria, no chance foreign military intervention will come to an end. But more importantly, the Syrian people will continue to suffer from deprivation and misery. They will not be able to realize their aspirations for a better future. Syria will continue to be a tinderbox with regional implications.
To overcome this logjam, an Arab initiative may be required. While Arabs could have played a constructive role in ending the conflict at earlier stages, it is not too late to do so now. Clearly the conditions now are less favorable and provide less opportunities. But opportunities exist.
At this stage, the most promising entry point appears to be: How to engage Damascus on the implementation of UNSCR 2254 and accelerating the process of reconstruction. In this regard, they can act as an intermediary between GOS on the one hand, and on the other the EU and the US. The Arabs can offer to unfreeze the participation of Syria in Arab League activities (in essence the return of Syria to the Arab League), and at the same time mediate an international arrangement, in which they would play a major role in financing reconstruction. In return they can convince Damascus to be more forthcoming in the implementation of 2245. This would also create more favorable conditions for the Constitutional Committee to proceed.
Such an arrangement could be based on an incremental incentives-based approach – a progressive lifting of sanctions, gradual normalization of relations with Europe and staggered disbursement of reconstruction funds (Arab, European and UN )– in exchange Damascus would undertake confidence building steps (release of detainees, easing military conscription, facilitating return of the displaced, etc,.... ) and political and economic reforms. Areas not presently under the control of the government, such as Idlib and east of the Euphrates, would also benefit down the road.
Due to the scale of devastation in Syria, the amount of funds required for the reconstruction of Syria is colossal, estimated at $250 billion. Although Damascus insists it will not accept reconstruction assistance nor welcome investment from countries that have, in its view, fueled the military conflict in Syria, it will ultimately need funds from every possible source.

The betrayal of Turkey’s youth
Alexandra de Cramer/Arab News/December 13/2019
With a median age of 30, Turkey has a young population. But what does their country offer them? Not jobs, for a start. Turkey has had high youth unemployment since before the Gezi Park protests in 2013, but August 2019 marked an all-time high, with 27 percent of 15- to 34-year-olds — equivalent to some 2.8 million young people — out of work. Furthermore, in the last 15 years the number of unemployed university graduates has increased tenfold. Currently, 26 percent of university graduates are unable to find a job. In October, a member of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), Ahmet Akin, stated in Parliament that 5 million university graduates could not pay off their student loans. With a stagnant job market combined with the political turmoil and economic instability of recent years, it is little wonder that Turkey’s finest brains have sought opportunities elsewhere. A recent youth report for the CHP found that more than 70 percent of young Turks said they would live abroad if they had the chance.
Data from the Turkish Statistical Institute shows that 250,000 Turks moved to a different country in 2017 and another 300,000 joined them in 2018, of which 42 percent were aged between 20 and 34. Since those who move abroad are likely to speak a second language, and have internationally recognized qualifications, transferable skills and experience, it is likely that Turkey is losing the most talented members of its workforce.
Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claims there are efforts underway to bring them back, the latest emigration figures would suggest those efforts are not working, if they exist at all.
According to Yalcin Karatepe, dean of the political science faculty of Ankara University, when the 27 percent of young people who are out of work are added to the 29 percent who are not enrolled in an educational institution, it means a staggering 56 percent of Turkey’s young people — those aged between 15 and 34 — are forced into idleness. “One out of two young people in Turkey is in fact doing nothing,” he said.
In an interview on CNN TURK in 2017, the journalist Serdar Kuzuloglu quoted data showing that 30 percent of 15- to 30-year-olds earned less than 600 Turkish lira, or $104, per month, which amounts to the equivalent of 20 lira per day, or $3.50. Thirty-three percent in the same age group earned between the equivalent of $104 and $260 per month, while only 22 percent were on a monthly salary of $415 or more. “It is by no means surprising that what these young people spend most of their time doing is just walking around. It’s all they can afford,” said Kuzuloglu. “How are they expected to create a future?”
That “lost generation” now is around 6 million strong, but how long before technological advancements mean they are left behind for good?
The backlash that will follow the loss of the country’s intellectual capital is incalculable. Turkey’s big selling point has always been its dynamic, well-educated youth. That youth now is in crisis. In a rapidly changing world, young Turks are falling behind not only in their experience of work but in their qualifications, as the quality of Turkish higher education also raises a number of questions that are rarely addressed.
Turkey has nearly 200 universities. Not one of them is in the Times Higher Education ranking of the top 350 institutions. After the attempted coup of 2016, 6,000 academics were removed from their posts. Since all university leaders are appointed by the president, those positions are filled by those who share the same political ideology rather than by candidates chosen on merit.
A long-standing problem in the country is a lack of versatility in the job market. The driving force of the Turkish economy still is its construction industry, which employs around 2 million people, of which more than 1.5 million are manual workers. The fast-growing creative industries, on the other hand, tend to employ fewer people. A job for life – or even for a reliable number of years – is a thing of the past.
Turkey’s position as the 27th largest export economy in the world is largely a result of its manufacturing sector. Vehicles, machinery, and iron production account for more than $54.2 billion of Turkey’s $140 billion in annual exports. All are sectors that could quite easily be switched to automation, putting yet more people out of work.
Turkey is failing not only the youth of today but possibly generations yet to be born. The disastrous mismanagement of the future will cost the country dearly and it is the young who will pay the heaviest price.
The 2.5 million new jobs that Finance Minister Berat Albayrak promised this year as part of an economic rejuvenation plan have not materialized, thanks in part to a slowed-down growth rate of 2.6 percent. Only half a million new positions were created in 2018. More than 7 million students are expected to graduate over the next four years, but there is no sign of any structural reforms being put in place to enable them to enter the world of work.
Erdogan’s way of addressing the issue was to state at the beginning of this academic year that “a university degree is no guarantee to find a job. There is no such thing anywhere in the world.”
The simple fact is that by not investing in its youth, Turkey is paving the way to a permanent state of stagnation. How many years until a young person without a job now is considered totally unemployable? How can those with no job — and no prospect of getting one — maintain a standard of living, let alone improve it? No job means no salary to spend on consumer goods, which slows the economy even more. The vicious circle is complete.
Turkey is failing not only the youth of today but possibly generations yet to be born. The disastrous mismanagement of the future will cost the country dearly and it is the young who will pay the heaviest price.
*Alexandra de Cramer is a journalist based in Istanbul. Her work ranges from current affairs to culture, and has been featured in Monocle, Courier Magazine, Maison Francaise and Istanbul Art News. @Syndication Bureau

Macron gambles everything on genuine economic reform
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/December 13/2019
After last week’s lambasting of the do-nothing Angela Merkel era, it is with pleasure that we now turn to French President Emmanuel Macron, who is gambling everything in the hope of reforming the seemingly unreformable French Fifth Republic. To truly understand the importance of the Elysee’s struggle with the French street over pension reforms — historically the third rail of politics there — it is necessary to see the world through Macron’s eyes.
Hardened technocrat that he is, the French president is at least — unlike the vast majority of so-called leaders on the continent — capable of understanding math; and the arithmetic in Europe is far from pretty. The euro zone only grew at an anemic 0.2 percent (quarter-on-quarter) in the third quarter of 2019, with both powerhouse Germany and Italy teetering on the edge of recession. Europe’s signal failure to grow at a marginally acceptable rate consistently for decades now marks the continent out as being in absolute decline.
But Macron, analyzing things clearly, is not yet ready to go gently into that good night. Seeing that Merkel’s Germany has long been an intellectual black hole; that deeply divided Spain is engulfed in a series of endless, inconclusive elections; that Italy is on the economic ropes; that rightist, populist Poland is in open revolt against Brussels; and that Britain is heading for the door, Macron rightly senses a political opportunity for France to punch far above its economic weight.
But before he can lead Europe into an era of economic, strategic and political reform, he must first prove that he can lead unruly France. Already, the Elysee has accomplished something once unthinkable in the French Fifth Republic: He has introduced genuine labor market reforms and withstood the considerable wrath of the French street. But this was not enough to convince the static German chancellor to jointly move on real EU-wide reform. So now Macron has once again picked up the dice, betting his presidency and his highly ambitious reform agenda on tackling what has long been seen in French politics as too controversial: Pension reform.
On its face, the intellectual case for such a modern-day adjustment is irrefutable. But then logic has never been the strong suit of French unions; long one of the most economically reactionary forces on the continent. The government is attempting to unify a fragmented pension system, wherein there are fully 42 special deals for various cosseted state sectors of the economy, allowing them to retire at comically early ages that are simply not sustainable in the new era of globalization we find ourselves in. On average, French workers retire at 62, with a publicly funded pension equal to 74 percent of a worker’s final salary. This compares with Britain, where workers walk away with only 29 percent of their final wage.
Before he can lead Europe into an era of economic, strategic and political reform, he must first prove that he can lead unruly France.
Macron’s reforms, in merely doing away with the antiquated exemptions and creating a universal pension system including both public and private sector workers, will only inch the average retirement age up to a still unaffordable 64, but it is a step in the right direction. At base, Macron’s pension reform signals an effort to change the course of French economic history, fulfilling his campaign promise of delivering nothing less than the biggest transformation of the French social model and welfare system in the post-war era.
Doubling down, Macron has reportedly said that he ought not to even run for re-election in 2022 if the reforms are not passed. While this is surely an example of the man’s characteristic flamboyance (so refreshing after the decade-plus of the colorless Merkel), there is strategic truth in what he says.
A Macron emboldened by genuine economic reforms of a country that was thought by many to be utterly incapable of such a transformation would by rights claim the leadership of a moribund Europe. Having grasped the economic nettle at home, Macron would be unchained, possessing the authority to lay claim to pressing for Europe-wide reforms: Establishing a genuine finance ministry, having (from now on) some form of mutualized common debt, and working to move more in tandem geostrategically. A reformist champion could lead such an effort; a reformist failure could not.
So, for Macron, everything is riding on the coming tumultuous months. Ironically, French unions agree with almost the whole of Macron’s assessment, despite the fact they come to very different conclusions about what is to be done. Strikingly, even ahead of the government’s announcement of the exact terms of the pension reforms this week, many unions had already gone out on strike — with fully 800,000 joining their protests — hoping to strangle the pension reform at birth.
The French people remain on a knife’s edge as to who they support. An Ifop poll of Dec. 5 found that a bare majority of 53 percent supported the strikers, while a large 76 percent majority backed the general idea of pension reform.
While the British election fallout looms and the loud drums of impeachment are heard from Washington, it is actually Macron’s climactic showdown with the French street that may be the single most important political risk story of this wintry December.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.com.