English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 11/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news
 

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Bible Quotations For today
Who does not enter the sheepfold by the gate but climbs in by another way is a thief and a bandit.
John 10/01-06: “‘Very truly, I tell you, anyone who does not enter the sheepfold by the gate but climbs in by another way is a thief and a bandit. The one who enters by the gate is the shepherd of the sheep. The gatekeeper opens the gate for him, and the sheep hear his voice. He calls his own sheep by name and leads them out. When he has brought out all his own, he goes ahead of them, and the sheep follow him because they know his voice. They will not follow a stranger, but they will run from him because they do not know the voice of strangers.’Jesus used this figure of speech with them, but they did not understand what he was saying to them.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 10- 11/2020

Our Cancer Lies Within The Leaders/Elias Bejjani/Wednesday 09 December 2020
MoPH: 1778 new coronavirus cases, 14 deaths
Ministry of Health: 1274 new coronavirus cases, 20 deaths
World Food Programme fears a 'hunger pandemic' more dangerous than COVID-19
Aoun on International Human Rights Day: Lebanon will remain faithful to these rights to uphold the dignity of the human family
President Aoun: Deteriorating security situation, suffering of Baalbek-Hermel people shouldn’t continue, military and security apparatuses are called upon to fully fulfill their responsibilities
Red Cross receives corpse of Lebanese man through Ras al-Naqoura crossing
Sawan Says Conducting Port Blast Probe 'Accurately, Deliberately'
Lebanese judge charges caretaker PM Diab, ex-ministers over Beirut port blast
Judge Sawwan Indicts Diab, 3 Ex-ministers over Port Blast
Diab Decries 'Attack on Premiership' after Being Charged over Port Blast
Khalil Says No Role for Him as ex-Finance Minister in Port Case
Miqati Slams 'Selectivity' after Diab Charged in Port Probe
Consultative Gathering Says Diab Accusal in Port Probe 'Suspicious'
Lebanon Timeline: From Deadly Blast to PM Charged
Report: Critique Emerge over President’s ‘Parallel’ Govt Format
Brazil's Richest Man, a Lebanese-Brazilian Banker, Dies
Jumblat: White Smoke Won’t Emerge Soon on Cabinet Formation
March from Interior Ministry reaches Riad El-Solh marking International
Salameh says could not appear before Judge Aoun for security reasons
US Ambassador visits Tripoli's Chamber of Commerce, confirms support after
Beirut Silos at Heart of Debate about Remembering Port Blast
Macron can come to Lebanon’s rescue by empowering students/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/December 10/2020
Hezbollah Has Created Parallel Financial and Welfare Systems to Manage the Current Crisis/Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/December 10/2020
Lebanon Poll Shows Drop In Hezbollah Support, Even Among Shia; Majority Back Israel Boundary Talks/David Pollock/The Washington Institute/December 10/2020
 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 10- 11/2020

Israel, Morocco agree to normalize relations in latest US-brokered deal
Trump Announces Israel, Morocco to Normalize Relations
Netanyahu Hails 'Historic' Morocco Normalization Agreement
Iran blacklists U.S. envoy in Yemen, reciprocating U.S. move
US B-52H bombers fly to Middle East in mission to deter Iran
Canada/Statement by Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of International Development on Human Rights Day
U.S. and Afghan forces target Al Qaeda in the south
Johnson Tells UK to 'Get Ready' for No-Deal Brexit Collapse
Azerbaijan's 'struggle' with Armenia not over: Erdogan

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 10- 11/2020

Joe Biden’s Curious Defense of Gen. Lloyd Austin/Thomas Joscelyn/The Dispatch/December 10/2020
Biden Must Prioritize Iran’s Human Rights Abuses In Future Talks/Alireza Nader and Tzvi Kahn/ Radio Farda/December 10/2020
America Must Take North Korea’s Cyber Warfare Capabilities Seriously/Mathew Ha/The National Interest/December 10/2020
U.S. Takes Tougher Tone With Turkey as Trump Exits/Lara Jakes/The New York Times/December 10/2020
Iraq Troop Withdrawal Was Austin’s Failure — and Biden’s/Eli Lake/Bloomberg/December 10/2020
Iran’s abuse of diplomatic norms a threat to the West/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/December 10/2020
Trump determined to designate pro-Iran groups as terrorist/Maria Maalouf/Arab News/December 10/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 10- 11/2020

Our Cancer Lies Within The Leaders

Elias Bejjani/Wednesday 09 December 2020

Great Interview/Sadly the Christian leaders and the Maronite ones in particular are detached from their own people's conscience, hopes, pains and aspirations. They do not represent them at all and here lies the main problem.

MoPH: 1778 new coronavirus cases, 14 deaths
NNA/December 10/2020
The Ministry of Public Health announced Thursday 1778 new coronavirus cases and 14 deaths recorded in Lebanon over the past 24 hours.

Ministry of Health: 1274 new coronavirus cases, 20 deaths
NNA/December 10/2020
The Ministry of Public Health announced 1274 new cases of coronavirus infection, which raises the cumulative number to 140409 confirmed cases.
20 deaths have been registered over the past 24 hours.

World Food Programme fears a 'hunger pandemic' more dangerous than COVID-19
NNA/December 10/2020
Thursday, when accepting the Nobel Peace Prize at a ceremony held virtually, the World Food Programme (WFP) warned of a "hunger pandemic" the consequences of which will be worse than COVID-19.
"Due to the many wars, climate change, the widespread use of hunger as a political and military weapon, and a global pandemic that greatly increases the severity of all of this, 270 million people are heading towards starvation," said US World Food Program Executive Director David Beasley. "Failure to meet their needs will cause a hunger pandemic that will obscure the COVID-19 pandemic," he stressed in statements quoted from the agency's headquarters in Rome.--AFP

Aoun on International Human Rights Day: Lebanon will remain faithful to these rights to uphold the dignity of the human family
NNA/December 10/2020
On International Human Rights Day, the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, recalled late Charles Malek, who had clear imprints in the formulation of these rights in the United Nations, for the good of mankind and humanity. The President wrote on his page of social media: “On International Human Rights Day, we remember Charles Malek, one of those who drafted the Universal Declaration, dedicating Lebanon's position, the home of respect for the human being, regardless of his religious, political or ethnic affiliation. Lebanon will remain faithful to these rights, in order to uphold the dignity of the human family with its cultural diversity and civilizational richness”.-- Presidency Press Office

President Aoun: Deteriorating security situation, suffering of Baalbek-Hermel people shouldn’t continue, military and security apparatuses are called upon to fully fulfill their responsibilities
NNA/December 10/2020
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, stressed that “The deteriorating security situation, in Baalbek-Hermel shouldn’t continue, while the suffering of its people are increasing as a result of practices carried out by armed gangs which terrorize people and disturb their comfort, which negatively affects social and economic conditions, in the region”. The President also called on “Military and security apparatuses to fully fulfill their responsibilities, especially since the political leaderships in the region lifted protection off these militants and called on state agencies to protect the people, and prevent attacks”. Stances of President Aoun came while holding two meetings, today at the Presidential Palace, which were devoted to tackle the social and security situation in Baalbek-Hermel region. To that, the President received a delegation of Baalbek-Hermel MPs, which included: Dr. Hussein Hajj Hassan, Brigadier General, Al-Walid Soukarieh, Dr. Ali Moqdad, and Dr. Ihab Hamada. MPs briefed the President on the deteriorating security situation and the practices of armed forces which aren’t only firing random automatic weapons, but are now using rocket-propelled grenades, in addition to blocking down roads and terrorizing people, and the increase of organizes thefts. Baalbek-Hermel MPs also emphasized that “There will be no political protection for these gang-members”, wishing that the President instructs Military and Security forces to fulfill their duties in restoring security and stability to the region, especially since these gangs impose taxes and distribute water and electricity to citizens upon their desires. In addition, the MP delegation also addressed the issue of construction, which caused a crisis in real estate ownership as a result of stopping the sorting and annexation process. They also requested that the measure which was previously approved, and which requires the approval of the Interior Minister, to allow municipalities to grant building permits to citizens on their properties which do not exceed 150 meters to be approved again, since it prevents unauthorized construction. Baalbek-Hermel Governor: The President also met Baalbek-Hermel Governor, Bashir Khoder, today at Baabda Palace. The situation in Baalbek-Hermel was discussed, and Governor Khoder briefed the President about security and health conditions of the region, in addition to the issue of building on real estate and activating the process of sorting and annexation. -- Presidency Press Office

Red Cross receives corpse of Lebanese man through Ras al-Naqoura crossing
NNA/December 10/2020
The International Red Cross transported the body of 67-year-old Lebanese Karam Geryes Karam from inside the occupied Palestinian territories through the Ras al-Naqoura border crossing, and in turn delivered it inside the Lebanese territories to the Lebanese Red Cross, which will hand it over to the deceased man's family in Qulaia. Karam entered the occupied Palestinian territories in the year 2000, upon the retreat of the Israeli enemy from southern Lebanon.

Sawan Says Conducting Port Blast Probe 'Accurately, Deliberately'
Naharnet/December 10/2020
Lebanon's lead investigator into the catastrophic Beirut port explosion, Judge Fadi Sawan, announced Thursday that he is carrying out the probe “accurately and deliberately,” after he was accused of procrastination by some observers, journalists and political forces. “The judicial investigator would like to reiterate that the investigation is taking place accurately and deliberately, with the necessary respect for the legal and scientific norms that govern this type of crimes,” the Higher Judicial Council said in a rare statement about the investigations. The statement comes after Sawan filed charges on Thursday against the caretaker prime minister and three former ministers, accusing them of negligence that led to the death of hundreds of people. The four are the most senior individuals to be indicted so far in the investigation, which is being conducted in secrecy. And though it is too early to predict whether any of the four would end up on trial, the development was significant in Lebanon, where a culture of impunity has prevailed for decades, including among the entrenched political elites. The Higher Judicial Council statement said the move by Sawan to exercise his jurisdiction came after he sent a letter and documents to parliament last month, informing lawmakers of serious suspicions relating to government officials. The Lawmakers responded by saying that the material they received did not point to any professional wrongdoing. “The judicial investigator stresses that he is carrying out his work and duties with the possible speed but without hastiness, with the aim of reaching the desired goals and pinpointing the responsibilities of the perpetrators,” the statement added.

Lebanese judge charges caretaker PM Diab, ex-ministers over Beirut port blast
Najia Houssari/Arab News/December 10/2020
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab and three former ministers have been charged with negligence over the Beirut port explosion that killed more than 200 people and devastated vast areas of the Lebanese capital. Investigating judge Fadi Sawan called Diab in for questioning “as a defendant” next week along with former finance minister Ali Hassan Khalil, and former public works ministers Ghazi Zeaiter and Youssef Finianos. Officials have said that a cargo of ammonium nitrate, a highly explosive chemical, was stored unsafely for years at Beirut’s port. The investiagting judge set aside three days from next Monday to interrogate the defendants.All four were charged with carelessness and negligence leading to death over the Aug. 4 explosion at the port. Sawan will question the caretaker prime minister at the government headquarters, while the three former ministers will be interrogated at his office at the Palais de Justice in Beirut. Responding to the judicial announcement, Diab said that his conscience is clear, and he is confident that his handling of the case has been both responsible and transparent. Diab, who resigned in the wake of the August blast after taking office in early 2020, said that he “will not allow the prime minister’s position to be targeted by any party.” A judicial source told Arab News that the charge against Diab and the ministers is based on signed correspondence and letters confirming their knowledge of the risk posed by substances stored at the port. “The number of cases filed by those affected (by the port blast) has reached 1,000. These include families of the victims and those whose homes, shops, and cars have been damaged,” the source said. The judge’s decision to prosecute the caretaker prime minister and three former ministers follows growing public dismay at the length of the investigation and the fact that no senior officials have been charged. According to the Supreme Judicial Council, Sawan informed the parliament that “there are serious suspicions relating to some government officials,” and highlighted that “one of the heads of the security services” was among those interrogated. The council said that two French judges investigating the deaths of French citizens in the port explosion believe the results of specialized tests taken at the blast site will not be available until February or March. Family and friends of Land and Maritime Transport director-general Abdul Hafeez Al-Qaisi, who was arrested in connection with the explosion, staged a sit-in on Thursday outside the Palais de Justice in Beirut to demand his release. Protesters said that Al-Qaisi “carried out his administrative duty to the fullest within the limits of his legal powers and the regulations in force, and repeatedly warned in official correspondence that this substance was dangerous.”

Judge Sawwan Indicts Diab, 3 Ex-ministers over Port Blast
Agence France Presse/December 10/2020
The lead investigator into a catastrophic August 4 explosion at Beirut port charged outgoing premier Hassan Diab and three ex-ministers with negligence Thursday, a judicial source said. They are the first politicians to be indicted over the devastating blast that killed more than 200 people, disfigured the heart of the capital and ignited a wave of public anger against Lebanon's ruling elite.  The decision by judge Fadi Sawan came after the investigation confirmed that the suspects had received "several written notices warning them against postponing the disposal of ammonium nitrate fertiliser," which authorities say was behind the explosion, the source said."They also did not take the necessary measures to avoid the devastating explosion and its enormous damage," added the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorised to speak on the issue. The other officials charged are the former ministers of finance, Ali Hasan Khalil, public works, Yusef Fenianos, and transport, Ghazi Zaiter.  In a letter to parliament late last month, Sawan asked lawmakers to investigate several outgoing and former ministers over the explosion. The letter came after Sawan's own investigations raised "certain suspicions about the responsibility of those ministers and their failure towards addressing the presence of the ammonium nitrate at the port." The judicial source said on Thursday that parliament had not responded to Sawan's request, prompting him to press charges unilaterally. Sawan will begin questioning the suspects on Monday, the source said. The investigation has so far triggered the arrest of 25 people, including top port and customs officials. Lebanese officials have rejected an international probe, despite demands both at home and abroad for an impartial investigation. Experts from France and the US Federal Bureau of Investigation took part in the preliminary investigation.

Diab Decries 'Attack on Premiership' after Being Charged over Port Blast
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/December 10/2020
Caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab's office said Thursday that the outgoing premier's conscience was clear after he was charged in the Beirut port blast probe. "He is confident that his hands are clean and that he has handled the Beirut Port blast file in a responsible and transparent manner," it said in a statement. "This surprising targeting goes beyond the person to the position per se, and Hassan Diab will not allow the Premiership to be targeted by any party," it stressed. In another statement, Diab's press office accused Judge Fadi Sawan of "violating the constitution" and "bypassing parliament," describing the caretaker PM as "a man of institutions who respects the law and abides by the constitution." The office added that Diab has already provided all the information he had to Sawan. It was not clear whether the comments meant he would not accept to be interrogated again. Sawan said he would interrogate Diab and the three ministers as defendants next week. Sawan, Lebanon's lead investigator into the catastrophic explosion, has charged Diab and ex-ministers Ali Hassan Khalil, Ghazi Zoaiter and Youssef Fenianos with negligence. They are the first politicians to be indicted over the devastating August 4 blast that killed more than 200 people, disfigured the heart of the capital and stoked a wave of public anger against Lebanon's ruling elite. The four were charged with "negligence and causing death to hundreds and injuries to thousands more" in the first such official indictment against a prime minister in office in Lebanese history.
After the blast, it emerged top security officials and politicians had known for years about hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate fertilizer stored haphazardly at the Beirut port but had failed to take precautionary measures. The decision by Sawan came after the investigation confirmed the suspects had received "several written notices warning them against postponing the disposal of ammonium nitrate fertilizer," a judicial source said. "They also did not take the necessary measures to avoid the devastating explosion and its enormous damage," added the source. Youssef Lahoud, legal representative to 1,500 families affected by the blast, described Sawan's move as "essential step toward revealing the complete truth." Lahoud, who also represents the Beirut Bar Association working on behalf of the families, said an indictment doesn't mean incrimination, and that it is the 5-member judicial council that would issue verdicts. Since the material arrived in Lebanon in late 2013, four prime ministers have been in office. It was not clear why Sawan has singled out Diab among the ex-premiers who have held the post while the nitrates were improperly stored at a port warehouse, a ticking bomb. Former Prime Ministers Najib Miqati, Tammam Salam and Saad Hariri have reportedly said that they were not aware of the existence of the material. Diab has said he was only informed about the presence of the "explosives" days before the blast and had planned to visit the port. Later, he told reporters he canceled the visit after being told the stored chemicals were fertilizers. "There is a list to be made of all those who knew and should all be held responsible," said Elie Hasrouty, whose father died in the port explosion. "Their job is not to refer (the matter) to others, but to stop that 'bomb' from going off and to protect people."

Khalil Says No Role for Him as ex-Finance Minister in Port Case
Naharnet/December 10/2020
Former finance minister Ali Hassan Khalil snapped back Thursday at Judicial Investigator Judge Fadi Sawan after the latter charged him with negligence in the ongoing probe into the devastating August 4 explosion at Beirut’s port. Slamming what he called Sawan’s “claims,” Khalil announced in a tweet that he has always been “under the law and its norms.”“We have confidence in ourselves and in our practice of our responsibility,” he added. “We are surprised by the contradictory stance of the judicial investigator which has violated the constitution and the law,” Khalil went on to say. “As a (former) finance minister, I had no role in this case. The investigation minutes contain the proof,” the ex-minister added, noting that he will issue a detailed response to “unveil all backgrounds and facts.”Earlier in the day, Sawan had pressed charges against caretaker PM Hassan Diab as well as against Khalil and two former public works ministers -- Ghazi Zoaiter and Youssef Fenianos. The four are the most senior individuals to be indicted so far in the investigation, which is being conducted in secrecy. And though it is too early to predict whether any of the four would end up on trial, the development is significant in Lebanon, where a culture of impunity has prevailed for decades, including among the entrenched political elites.

Miqati Slams 'Selectivity' after Diab Charged in Port Probe
Naharnet/December 10/2020
Ex-PM Najib Miqati on Thursday warned against double standards after Judicial Investigator Judge Fadi Sawan charged caretaker PM Hassan Diab in the ongoing probe into the devastating Beirut port explosion. “Justice cannot be achieved through double standards,” Miqati tweeted. “It is the right of the families of the port blast victims to know the truth and hold accountable those involved in the crime,” he said. “But how can selectivity be adopted in prosecution while ignoring the president of the republic’s statement that he read reports warning of the presence of dangerous substances at the port,” Miqati added. He also stressed that justice “cannot be fragmented,” warning against “singling out certain individuals.”

Consultative Gathering Says Diab Accusal in Port Probe 'Suspicious'
Naharnet/December 10/2020
The Consultative Gathering, a grouping of March 8 camp Sunni MPs, on Thursday blasted the lead investigator’s decision to indict caretaker PM Hassan Diab in the port blast investigation. In a statement, the Gathering described the move as “suspicious and marred by a lot of light-mindedness and improvisation.”
Voicing support for “the prosecution of everyone without red lines,” the grouping said “the targeting of PM Diab alone in this manner contains a lot of selectivity and spite.”Sawan “found it easy to harm the PM post seeing as its occupant is not a sectarian lord and we do not tolerate this at all,” the MPs added.

Lebanon Timeline: From Deadly Blast to PM Charged
Agence France Presse/December 10/2020
From the devastating Beirut port blast in August to the charging of outgoing premier Hassan Diab with negligence on Thursday, here is a timeline of the crisis rocking Lebanon:
Devastation -
On August 4, one of the world's biggest ever non-nuclear explosions destroys much of Beirut's port and devastates swathes of the capital. The blast was caused by a fire in a warehouse which Lebanese authorities admit held a vast stockpile of ammonium nitrate for the past six years. The huge explosion leaves more than 200 dead, injures over 6,500 and ravages large parts of Beirut. The tragedy strikes as Lebanon is mired in its worst economic crisis in decades, with its currency plummeting, massive layoffs and drastic banking restrictions.
'Apocalyptic' -
Beirut is in a state of shock, with residents looking for the missing and searching gutted buildings for the wounded and for their pets and belongings. It is an "apocalyptic situation," says Beirut Governor Marwan Abboud, a day after the blast. International aid begins to arrive.
Macron weighs in -
On August 6, French President Emmanuel Macron visits Beirut and walks through the devastated Gemmayzeh neighborhood. His visit is praised by many Lebanese angry at their own leaders, whom they accuse of corruption and incompetence. Macron calls for "deep changes" that the Lebanese population has been demanding for months. The next day President Michel Aoun rejects any international probe into the disaster.
International aid -
On August 8, thousands take to the streets angry at their leaders over the explosion. Clashes with security forces erupt. The next day the international community pledges around $300 million in emergency aid at a video conference jointly organized by France and the United Nations. The international community promises to stand by Lebanon but demands that aid be directly distributed to the population, and a transparent probe into the blast be carried out.
Two PMs resign -
On August 10, Prime Minister Hassan Diab announces the resignation of his government. Demonstrators again take to the streets of Beirut and clash with security forces. Diplomat Mustafa Adib is named as Lebanon's new premier three weeks later.
Macron lands in Beirut hours later, extracting a promise from all political sides to help Adib form an independent crisis government. On September 26, after weeks of deadlock, Adib bows out, apologizing to the Lebanese people over his "inability to realize its aspirations for a reformist team." Macron says he is "ashamed" of Lebanese leaders, who he claims have "betrayed" their people.
Hariri back
On October 22, three-time prime minister Saad Hariri, is nominated to the position again, promising a government of experts to stop the economic collapse. Diab continues as caretaker PM while Hariri tries to form an administration. On December 2, at a second aid conference, Macron urges Lebanese politicians to form a government. Two days later, international donors lay out a $2.5-billion response plan to the blast over 18 months, but urge "credible progress on reforms."Diab charged On Thursday the lead investigator into the explosion charges Diab and three ex-ministers with negligence.

Report: Critique Emerge over President’s ‘Parallel’ Govt Format
Naharnet/December 10/2020
Criticisms arose after the presidency’s announcement that a complete government proposal was submitted by the President to the PM-designate during the latter’s visit to Baabda to submit his cabinet line-up, media reports said Thursday.
Parliamentary sources described to Nidaa al-Watan newspaper President Michel Aoun’s move as a “heresy,” and a “violation” of the Taef Accord. Aoun has made an “unprecedented” move “fragmenting the Taef Accord through a heresy of presenting a ministerial formation corresponding to a cabinet format presented by the PM-designate,” Saad Hariri, the sources told the newspaper. They added that “based on the logic of constitutional partnership in the formation process, the president can consult, give remarks or even reject a cabinet format presented by the PM-designate, but has no right to present a parallel line-up.”Other sources said the President's move “risks raising sectarian differences against the background of tampering with the jurisdictions of the premiership.” On Wednesday, the Presidency said Aoun received a "full cabinet line-up" from Hariri during their meeting in Baabda, and “Aoun in turn handed Hariri a complete governmental proposal including a distribution of portfolios according to clear principles.”The sources pointed to “massive resentment” on part of the former prime ministers, noting that the higher Sunni authority at Dar el-Fatwa could step in in denunciation. The Presidency said that the two men “agreed to study the submitted proposals and continue consultations to address the differences between these proposals."
 

Brazil's Richest Man, a Lebanese-Brazilian Banker, Dies
Agence France Presse/December 10/2020
Lebanese-Brazilian banking magnate Joseph Safra, the wealthiest man in Brazil, died Thursday at age 82 of natural causes, his bank said. Safra, who had an estimated fortune of $23.2 billion, ranked 63rd on Forbes magazine's list of the world's wealthiest people. Born in 1938 to a Lebanese Jewish family in Beirut, he emigrated with his family to Brazil, where his father founded what would become Banco Safra. In 1962, he and his brothers took over the bank from their father, who died the following year. They turned it into a major financial group, with operations in more than 25 countries.A patron of the arts and philanthropist, Safra donated part of his fortune to medical research, and also purchased artworks for Sao Paulo's Pinacoteca, one of the leading museums in Brazil.

Jumblat: White Smoke Won’t Emerge Soon on Cabinet Formation
Naharnet/December 10/2020
Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat on Thursday raised doubts a government would be soon formed, despite a format presented by the PM-designate Saad Hariri a day earlier to the president. “It seems white smoke won’t emerge on a government formation soon,” said Jumblat in a tweet on the controversial formation of the cabinet. He sarcastically added that “more tests seem needed to adopt the best vaccine to address the crisis.” On reports that the line-up presented by Hariri came “unfair” to the Druze community, Jumblat said he would “leave it to protectors of the Druze community in Lebanon, Syria and Palestine,” to call for that right. Hariri presented a 18-minister cabinet lineup to President Michel Aoun on Wednesday. Lebanese Democratic Party leader Druze MP Talal Arslan slammed the format dubbing it as “unfair for the Druze community.” In an 18-seat government, the Druze sect is entitled to only one seat, which will likely go to someone close to the Progressive Socialist Party and not Arslan's LDP. Jumblat expects two ministerial seats in a government.

March from Interior Ministry reaches Riad El-Solh marking International
NNA/December 10/2020
The Committee of Families of the Kidnapped and the Missing, and the Lebanese Union of the Handicapped, on Tuesday organized a march which started outside the Interior and Municipalities Ministry in Sanayeh towards the Riad El-Solh Square, marking the International Human Rights Day, the NNA correspondent said. Upon arrival at the Riad El Solh Square, Wadad Halawni of the Committee of Families of the Kidnapped and the Missing, delivered a word on the occasion.

Salameh says could not appear before Judge Aoun for security reasons
NNA/December 10/2020
Public Prosecutor in Mount Lebanon, Judge Ghada Aoun, summoned Governor of the Central Bank, Riad Salameh, to appear before her today, to interrogate him on the file of waste in subsidized dollar. Salameh's lawyer, Shawki Kazan, and the bank’s finance director, Mazen Hamdan, appeared before the judge instead.A later date will be set for the next hearing session with Salameh, who was represented by his attorney, excused for security reasons.

US Ambassador visits Tripoli's Chamber of Commerce, confirms support after
NNA/December 10/2020
President of the Chamber of Commerce, Industry, and Agriculture in Tripoli and North Lebanon, Tawfik Daboussi, on Thursday welcomed US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, with whom he discussed the general economic conditions, as well as the robust existing relationship between the Lebanese and US private sectors. Moreover, Dabbousi briefed the US diplomat on the development of a number of projects in north Lebanon's chamber, which include a business incubator (Biat), an Industrial Development and Research Center, as well as food and quality control laboratories. For her part, Ambassador Shea expressed her full admiration and appreciation of said projects and wished north Lebanon's chamber, and its management, "further progress and development." In further details, Shea reiterated the US support for the Lebanese private sector and encouragement of a thriving Lebanese economy. "The US has provided a lot of in-kind assistance to encourage Lebanon's productive sectors, especially by means of standing side-by-side with the Lebanese people after Beirut Port explosion back in August. The US has also provided Lebanon with humanitarian aid and assistance to help cope with the burdens of the Coronavirus pandemic," the US diplomat said. "We have close relations with Lebanon, which we never underestimate; we are endeavoring to enable and develop trade exchange relations between our two countries despite the presence of obstacles facing the development process, on top of which are corruption and the absence of transparency and opportunities to help the advancement of the Lebanese economy," Shea added. She went on to point out that "the United States wants Lebanon to become a stable and independent country that records success in developing and modernizing its economy. The international conference is ready to provide the required support, but reforms are necessary, and so is the government that ensures the implementation of these reforms."
 

Beirut Silos at Heart of Debate about Remembering Port Blast
Associated Press/December 10/2020
Ghassan Hasrouty spent most of his life working at the silos in Beirut's port, unloading grain shipments to feed the country even as fighting raged around him during the 1975-90 civil war. Decades later, he perished under the same silos, their towering cement structure gutted by the force of the Aug. 4 explosion at the port, when 2,750 tons of improperly stored ammonium nitrates ignited in what became one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in history. In a horrific instant, a burst of power ravaged Beirut. More than 200 people died and the horror and devastation scarred the survivors.
Hasrouty's son, Elie, wants justice for his father and thinks the silos should stay as a "mark of shame" and reminder of the corruption and negligence of politicians that many Lebanese blame for the tragedy. A government-commissioned study in the wake of the disaster says the 50-year-old silos could collapse at any moment and should be demolished, sparking an emotional debate among the city's residents over how to preserve the memory of the tragedy. In Lebanon, where a culture of impunity has long prevailed and where those behind violent attacks, bombings and assassinations have rarely been brought to justice, the debate is steeped in suspicion. Sara Jaafar believes the government wants to obliterate the silos and move on as if nothing happened. "It is a reminder of what they did," said Jaafar, an architect whose apartment overlooking the silos was destroyed in the explosion.
"I never want to lose the anger that I have," she said.
Just days after the catastrophic blast, as public outrage mounted, Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab stepped down, saying the country's endemic corruption was "bigger than the state." The massive, 48-meter-high silos absorbed much of the explosion's impact, effectively shielding the western part of the city from the blast that damaged or completely destroyed thousands of buildings. The investigation into how such a large amount of dangerous chemicals was poorly stored for years under the nose of the port authority and the wider political leadership has dragged on. Rights groups and families are concerned it's a tactic to protect senior officials, none of whom have so far been detained or charged with any wrongdoing.
More than four months later, rotting wheat is dripping from the shredded but still-standing silos, which stored up to 85% of Lebanon's grain. Pigeons and rodents have found home among the wreckage. Emmanuel Durand, a French civil engineer who volunteered for the government-commissioned team of experts, spent several weeks using a laser scanner to gather digital data for an analysis of the silos' structure after the explosion. Though they may look structurally sound from afar, the silos are tilted and their foundation is broken, which has caused vertical cracks in two of them. They could collapse at any moment, Durand said, although it is impossible to calculate when. "Silos are very strong as long as they have integrity, just like an egg," Durand said. "Now if the shell of the egg is slightly broken, it becomes very weak and you will have no difficulty in crushing the egg." The army has plans to demolish the silos with equipment that crushes concrete and rebar, Durand said. Kuwait, which financed the building of the silos in the 1970s, has offered to donate to rebuild them. Then came a proposal by Fadi Abboud, a former tourism minister and member of the largest Christian party, the Free Patriotic Movement, to turn the port and silos into a "tourist attraction," a site that would rival the Roman ruins in Baalbek.
Families of the victims protested, called it a heartless commercialization of the site where so many died. "In their dreams!" vowed Gilbert Karaan, whose 27-year-old fiancée, firefighter-medic Sahar Fares, died battling the fire that broke out just before the explosion. "They will not profit off the martyrs."
Jonathan Dagher, a journalist with the independent online media platform Megaphone, said Abboud's words were in line with comments by Gebran Bassil, the party's leader, who said the explosion could be turned into a "big opportunity" to secure international support for Lebanon's cash-strapped government.
"These words are not an accident" and belittle the tragedy of what happened, Dagher said. There are concerns the port blast could be treated in the same way as Lebanon's 15-year civil war. The war is not taught in schoolbooks. There is no memorial for the 17,000 missing from the war. A general amnesty allowed warlords and militia leaders to dominate the country's postwar politics. After the war, downtown Beirut was quickly rebuilt, a high-end corporate hub emerging from the ruins and devastation.
Jaafar, the architect, said pushback against demolishing the silos stems from fear that a similar scenario, based on a "concept of amnesia" — if you don't see it, it didn't happen — is being engineered for the Aug. 4 blast. Lebanese architect Carlos Moubarak says the gutted silos should remain in place, their sheer size forever an echo of the massive explosion. "There is something very, very powerful about the silos," he said. "They are now part of the people's collective memory". Moubarak has designed a memorial park at the site, with the silos as a focal point, a remembrance ring at the crater, a museum and green space. The aim, he said, is to honor the victims and survivors while also capturing the spirit of solidarity among the Lebanese in the wake of the explosion. He is now trying to figure out ways to fund it.Elie Hasrouty's father and grandfather had both worked at the silos since they were built. His father, Ghassan, 59, called home 40 minutes before the explosion to tell his wife that a new shipment of grains would keep him there late and asked her to send his favorite pillow and bedsheets for the unplanned overnight at work.
His remains were found at the bottom of the silos, 14 days later. The silos should stay on as "a witness to corruption, so we can learn," Hasrouty said. "Something must change."

Macron can come to Lebanon’s rescue by empowering students
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/December 10/2020
Will the third time be a charm for French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Lebanon in the last month of 2020? His expected third visit to the country since the August Beirut Port explosion has been scheduled, but his main demand of a new technocratic government has not. It is now the benchmark for his success and ability to support Lebanon through this crisis. At this stage, “Caretaker Prime Minister” might become a more appropriate name for the government executive position. It seems that the politicians of this small Mediterranean country — amid a deluge of negative economic, health, social and security signals — are still incapable of moving forward and doing what seems to be in its citizens’ best interest. As problems continue piling up, it is making the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis the easiest or smallest of the problems facing Lebanon; all of which Hezbollah and its subordinate political leaders and business cartels do not care about. The latest report from the World Bank stated that Lebanon is in a “deliberate depression.” The word deliberate says it all. Political forces and elites that are protecting Hezbollah’s interests are choosing to let the country rot and disintegrate. The important thing for them is to preserve the status quo and their survival, which has become linked — deeper than people understand — to the Iranian regime.
In their view, this survival will be helped by the new US administration and any future negotiations with their masters in Tehran. Hence, Macron’s visit, regardless of the formation of a Lebanese government, is also the last before the start of Joe Biden’s mandate and what might be a new chapter in US-Iranian relations. In case a government is not formed prior to his arrival, Macron is expected to visit the French forces taking part in the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in the south of the country. It might be the only thing he does, as he will, in the case of no new government being in place, probably not meet any political leader. UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Maj. Gen. Stefano Del Col recently chaired a special tripartite meeting with senior officers from the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Israel Defense Forces, which seems to indicate a wish to avoid any friction or escalation prior to the French president’s visit.It is understandable that Macron is trying to keep a positive engagement and not alienate Hezbollah. Firstly, on a regional level, because France has been keen to maintain positive relations with Iran; and, secondly, on a domestic level, it is the most organized and strongest element in Lebanon. It is also important for the French to understand that, in today’s Lebanon, those who speak the truth against Hezbollah are either underground or out of town. The latest attack by Hezbollah and Amal thugs on students after their elections last week was a clear example. They are not satisfied with breaking the country — they now are looking to destroy and silence its future.
Therefore, if I could address a message to the French president before his visit to Lebanon, I would tell him that, during his previous visits, he met with symbols like Fayrouz, who represent the poetry that Lebanese aspire to, and he met with the symbols of corruption and hypocrisy, which is represented by political class. This time, he should meet the reality and the future. He should meet with the students at Lebanese universities. He should sit with all these students and listen to what they have to say, guide them, and protect them. They are the only hope for this country.
In a sad twist, Lebanon’s gifted youth is emigrating in search of a better future, while those who come back do so only to escape justice in their adopted countries. This is another dangerous indication that Lebanon has become a no man’s land and a signal of its isolation.
Moreover, there is, unfortunately, little to expect from a new government, whatever its composition and even if Iran grants a little win for Macron in the run-up to its expected negotiations with the new US administration. No one will be able to reform Lebanon, because reforming Lebanon means uncovering and stopping all the interests of Hezbollah and Iran. The political corruption and banking sector cartel are just the tip of the iceberg. They hide Iran’s doing, not only on a local level but also on the regional and even global levels, reaching Iraq, Syria, Africa, and South America. The tentacles of this Iranian crime organization, which helps Hezbollah receive millions of dollars while the Lebanese starve, are what reform would uncover.
This will come with an answer of violence and even more destruction. What can technocrats do if they are threatened with death? Absolutely nothing. Moreover, a technocrat is a meaningless word when it comes to Lebanon. Let us not forget that many of today’s accused corrupt politicians were not always politicians, but were technocrats who came from the banking and economic sectors. It is a political government that is needed, but with a new breed of politicians to sanitize the country just as we sanitize our hands when fighting COVID-19. We need to rid the government of all the old incumbents. We need a government with a vision and the will to fight for it. Lebanon cannot change while the same political clans rule in the same way, running the country like it is their fiefdom.
The French president should sit with all these students and listen to what they have to say, guide them, and protect them. They are the only hope for this country. This country needs a vision and a new leadership. Maybe the best way to find this leadership is among those who will fight for it and are the future of the country: Lebanese students. They could create a movement to build on the protests that started little more than a year ago. It would resemble the “En Marche” movement that brought Macron to power in France, breaking with the traditional political divisions and carrying the voice of the country’s youth.
It is time to empower the students who refuse to compromise on the future of Lebanon, who are brave enough to think they can change the country, and who do not care about threats and violence because they are guided by a strong belief. However, their vision needs to be sharpened. This vision can only be to anchor Lebanon as a country of freedom of belief and free enterprise. The French president supporting this youth is what will mark his success, not another broken government.
*Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.

Hezbollah Has Created Parallel Financial and Welfare Systems to Manage the Current Crisis
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/December 10/2020
حنين غدار/معهد واشنطن: حزب الله أنشأ أنظمة مالية ومعونات اجتماعية موازية لتلك التابعة للدولة وذلك لإدارة الأزمة الحالية
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/93513/hanin-ghaddar-the-washington-institute-hezbollah-has-created-parallel-financial-and-welfare-systems-to-manage-the-current-crisis-%d8%ad%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%ba%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87
To contain corrupt actors and facilitate reform, the international community must provide alternatives to Hezbollah pharmaceutical and food programs while filling gaps that the group is unable to address.
Despite Lebanon’s deteriorating financial and economic situation, the country’s political elite have made clear that they will not implement reforms laid out by the international community as prerequisites for a bailout. In their view, the changes specified by the IMF, the World Bank, and the French-sponsored aid framework CEDRE would mean the eventual collapse of their political class, whose corruption and illegal business dealings are protected and encouraged by Hezbollah. Indeed, the emergence of a more independent secular political class that reflects the October 2019 protests is a serious concern for the militia and its allies in government, so they have chosen to manage the crisis rather than resolve it.
Thus far, Hezbollah’s crisis-management efforts have far surpassed those of every other political party, civil society organization, and foreign assistance channel. The group’s military structure, organizational expertise, and access to alternative sources are enabling it to pursue temporary strategies for surviving the current crisis, while also retaining independence from state institutions, preserving a measure of support from its core Shia community, and discouraging Shia from joining any further rounds of public unrest. In the longer term, Hezbollah seems to be hoping that a transformative regional development—perhaps a new U.S.-Iranian nuclear agreement or a favorable U.S.-European partnership on Lebanon—will allow it to resolve its own financial crisis and regain access to hard currency, either from the Iranian regime or through international assistance mechanisms.
Yet even if Hezbollah seems fairly well-positioned to weather the storm, the Lebanese people—including the group’s support base—are not. According to a new World Bank report, half the population is living below the poverty line, and more will soon join them if the Central Bank stops subsidizing medicine, fuel, wheat, and other essentials two months from now as projected.
THE PHARMACEUTICAL PLAN
Before the financial crisis hit in fall 2019, Hezbollah was already using its control over the Health Ministry to coordinate with pharmacies in south Lebanon, the Beqa Valley, and the southern suburbs of Beirut. The aim: to provide its members and employees with medications at lower prices. Since then, however, many of these pharmacies have suffered from the Health Ministry’s inability to pay its expenses, and from the scarcity of medications that arose once importers could no longer access hard currency.
To resolve these problems, Hezbollah started using U.S. dollars to buy up financially troubled pharmacies, especially those in big cities such as Tyre and Nabatiyah. The group then flooded its pharmacies and health centers with Syrian and Iranian medications smuggled across the border and through the airport. These methods have enabled Hezbollah vendors to avoid paying import taxes and undersell other merchants. Moreover, they should be able to maintain this approach even after the Central Bank stops subsidizing other sellers. Hezbollah could then kill two birds with one stone—continue making money from Iranian medications while at the same time preserving its popular support.
THE SOCIAL ASSISTANCE PLAN
In the past few weeks, Hezbollah established the new grocery chain “Al-Nour Markets,” opening three stores in the south, two in the Beqa, and two in the Beirut suburbs. Each location is full of Iranian and Syrian products sold at lower prices than imported goods in rival supermarkets. By entering this sector, Hezbollah will be able to reap profits in Lebanese pounds, which it could later transfer to U.S. dollars on the black market.
The group has also created a new social security system for its members and employees: the “Al-Sajed” card, which can be used to purchase items and get discounts at Al-Nour Markets. The card is refilled with 300,000 liras per month, which is not much money at current exchange rates (about $200 USD) but still enough to make a major impact, especially in poorer communities. According to Hezbollah sources cited by Lebanese outlets, the card will eventually be distributed to poor Shia families, many of whom already receive seeds, equipment, and other farming supplies from the group’s U.S.-designated foundation Jihad al-Binaa.
Apart from generating additional profits, this part of Hezbollah’s strategy is mainly tailored to keep the Shia community under control. The country’s social and economic structure may fall apart quickly once subsidies stop completely. Hence, the political class is worried about another wave of protests by angry citizens who may be increasingly willing to face violence with violence. By making the Shia dependent on Hezbollah assistance, the group aims to ensure that at least one constituency stays quiet.
THE BANKING ALTERNATIVE
When Lebanese banks began limiting the withdrawal of U.S. dollars in October 2019 and imposing informal capital control on accounts, many depositors decided to take out as many dollars as they could. Since then, Lebanese residents have withdrawn an estimated $6 billion in cash from banks, and Hezbollah has sought to benefit from this unofficial public cash reserve. Among other tactics, the group has encouraged people to use its financial institutions to exchange and deposit their money—especially al-Qard al-Hassan, a U.S.-designated foundation that has become Hezbollah’s main money exchanger and the default bank replacement for its Shia constituency.
Recently, al-Qard al-Hassan installed ATMs at its branches in Beirut’s southern suburbs, reportedly allowing locals to receive cash payments and loan money from Hezbollah without the restrictions seen at other banks. The foundation is not a bank or financial institution, so it does not receive money from the Central Bank or any other official state organ. This arrangement allows it to set its own rules, cut its own deals, and otherwise boost Hezbollah’s parallel economy and financial structure. Down the road, Hezbollah hopes to regain access to hard currency, particularly the large cash deliveries Tehran used to make before sanctions. If and when that happens, the group aims to be the only party in Lebanon with substantial amounts of U.S. dollars, thereby transforming al-Qard al-Hassan into the country’s only viable banking system.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Despite the currency hurdles created by U.S. pressure and sanctions, Iran is still able to send goods to Hezbollah in order to shore up the group’s influence and finances. Yet other challenges could upend Hezbollah’s strategy for surviving Lebanon’s financial crisis and holding onto its support base.
First, even if the group is able to offset national shortages by providing its supporters with certain foods, household items, and medications from Iran and Syria, this plan does not cover other pressing national needs such as electricity, Internet service, hospitalization, and employment. The Shia have felt the quick decline in their standard of living and know the main reasons behind it: the corruption and clientelism that Hezbollah staunchly defends.
Second, Hezbollah’s internal financial crisis has decreased its access to hard currency, forcing it to pay its civilian staff in Lebanese pounds—which have lost almost 80 percent of their value compared to U.S. dollars. This is creating serious financial and social gaps between the group’s military and civilian employees, while also widening the gap between Hezbollah members and the wider Shia community. Indeed, most Shia have lost their jobs or are receiving a fraction of their salaries, and the state no longer provides them with the social, health, and educational services that Hezbollah personnel are still receiving. Although these services could help the group maintain loyalty among its closest circles and most essential employees, the sense of inequality is exacerbating discontent among the wider Shia community, as indicated by a recent Fikra Forum poll that showed Hezbollah’s support dropping among all constituencies.
In short, the group’s tools for providing social and humanitarian assistance are flawed, insufficient, and largely geared toward ensuring its own survival. To contain Hezbollah and make reform the only way out of the crisis, the international community should consider a two-fold strategy for providing humanitarian aid to the Lebanese people:
(1) compete with the group in sectors where its plans are already in motion, and
(2) fill the gaps that Hezbollah is unable to address. The sums dedicated to these efforts do not have to be large—donors could go far toward undermining the group’s grip among the Shia with investments that supply adequate medications, basic foodstuffs, and services that Hezbollah cannot sufficiently provide, such as hospitalization, medical care, and Internet access. The alternative—forcing the Lebanese people to depend on Hezbollah for survival—would only empower the group and its enablers while diminishing the push for long-lasting reforms.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics.

Lebanon Poll Shows Drop In Hezbollah Support, Even Among Shia; Majority Back Israel Boundary Talks
David Pollock/The Washington Institute/December 10/2020
A reliable new public opinion poll conducted in Lebanon, completed just three weeks ago, offers the first solid proof that grass-roots support for Hezbollah has declined significantly, even among the third of Lebanon’s population who is Shia. This slide in support probably helps explain Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah’s surprising new statement that Iran—and not Hezbollah—should avenge the recent death of Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
The trend of dwindling support is now unmistakable. The percentage of Shia voicing a “very positive” opinion of Hezbollah, while still a majority, has dropped slowly but steadily over the past three years. Today it is almost 20 points lower than in late 2017.
This trend almost certainly reflects increasing anger at Hezbollah’s role in the corruption, intimidation, and acute economic crisis plaguing the country, accelerated by its perceived responsibility for the devastating explosion in Beirut’s port last August. Remarkably, 79% of Lebanese Shia report a positive view of “the anti-corruption street protests.” Still, the majority (66%) continue to express a very positive opinion of Hezbollah. An additional 23% hold a “somewhat positive” opinion of it.
At the same time, Hezbollah’s popularity has plummeted even further among Lebanon’s Christian and Sunni communities. Just 16% of Christians and 8% of Sunnis now report even a “somewhat positive” view Hezbollah. That sentiment seems the same among the country’s tiny but disproportionately influential Druze minority as well, of whom a mere 14% report a favorable attitude toward Hezbollah at this time. However, this subsample is too small, in line with its proportion of the total population, for firm statistical conclusions.
Maritime Boundary Negotiations with Israel Get Solid Approval, Unlike Full Normalization
The recent launch of Lebanese-Israeli Mediterranean border talks attracts wide overall popular approval, particularly from Lebanon’s Sunnis and Christians—but also, more counterintuitively, from many Shia as well. Two-thirds of Sunnis (70%) and Christians (67%) agree that those talks are “a positive development”; half (51%) of Shia agree, with a mere 19% of all Lebanese expressing “strong” disagreement. This notably favorable reaction probably stems from the expectation, premature as it may be, that a resulting offshore natural gas windfall will ease the country’s dire economic straits.
In sharp contrast, however, the new full peace agreements between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain evoke generally bad reviews from respondents. Two-thirds of Christians and three-quarters or more of both Sunnis and Shia label those deals at least “somewhat” negative. Interestingly, in just this one Arab country, among six others surveyed, the pollster would not even allow a follow-up question about whether “those who want to pursue personal or business ties with Israelis should be allowed to do so.”
Sectarian Polarization on Ties with Iran or Turkey—But France Is Widely Popular
Lebanon’s public is sharply divided by sect regarding relations with major regional powers like Iran or Turkey. Nearly all Shia (94%) say it is important to have good relations with Iran. Yet just a third of Christians, and merely 17% of Sunnis, agree.
That polarization extends to particular issues of Iran’s regional role. Among Lebanese Shia, a stunning 85% view the end of the UN arms embargo on Iran last month as a positive development; in stark contrast, only 27% of Sunnis and 21% of Christians agree. Similar disparities in responses appear regarding the Houthis, Iran’s client in the Yemeni civil war: 79% of Lebanon’s Shia view that faraway group favorably, while a mere 18% of Lebanese Christians and 9% of Sunnis concur.
For Turkey, a leading Sunni country, the picture is roughly the reverse: 65% of Lebanon’s Sunnis say good ties with Ankara are important, compared with 27% of Christians and only 7% of Shia who say the same. As in other parts of the region, Turkey has lately become increasingly active in Lebanon—especially in the northern, mostly Sunni part of the country, but in the mixed capital of Beirut as well.
France, however, is one country about which Lebanon exhibits consensus. 94% of Sunnis, 87% of Christians, and (more unexpectedly) 69% of Shia believe good relations with France are important. Nearly all respondents (90%) from Lebanon’s small Druze minority share this assessment. This surely reflects historical and cultural ties, along with recent diplomatic discussions about a large French economic aid package.
Mixed Views of Trump and Ties with United States, with Economics Now Top Priority
By comparison, the United States rates considerably lower, especially among Shia. Just 7% of that group says good Lebanese-U.S. relations are important. Among Lebanon’s Christians, again surprisingly, that figure is only 38%. Highest in this category today are Sunnis, of whom almost half (46%) think it important to maintain good ties with the United States.
President Trump also polarizes the Lebanese public, although along somewhat different lines. The clear majority of Christians (70%) said “it would be better for our country if Donald Trump is reelected as U.S. president.” But a substantially narrower majority (57%) of Sunnis—and a mere 16% of Shia—agreed with that judgment. The question is now basically moot; a future poll will measure how each community responds to President Joe Biden and his policies.
When it comes to a broader U.S. Middle East policy, there is currently a marked consensus among all three groups. The overall plurality (43%) picks “providing more economic aid and investment” as their top suggestion for Washington. In second place (34%) is “pushing for a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.” Other issues like Iran, Yemen or Libya rank far behind.
Few Generational Differences in Attitudes
Surprisingly, the results of this survey show only very modest differences, if any, between those Lebanese citizens under or over 30 years of age. For example, among the total population, the proportion of those in either cohort with a positive opinion of Hezbollah is exactly the same: 35%.
Nevertheless, on a few specific questions, the under-30 crowd is as expected somewhat more moderate, or at least less hardline. While 78% of their elders dislike the UAE/Bahrain normalization with Israel, that figure drops modestly to 67% among Lebanon’s younger generation. Similarly, 41% of the younger cohort thinks good ties with the United States are important, compared with just 25% of those older than 30.
Methodological Note
These findings are from a survey conducted October 17-November 9, 2020 by a highly reputable, independent, and totally apolitical regional commercial market research firm, among a representative national sample of 1,000 Lebanese citizens. Unlike most other claimed surveys, this one comprised face-to-face interviews with a true random (geographic probability) sample of the total population, yielding credible results fully in line with the highest international professional standards.
The statistical margin of error for such a sample is approximately 3%; for the three major sectarian subsamples, each around a third of the total, it is approximately 4.5%. Comprehensive methodological details, including sampling procedures, quality controls, complete questionnaire, and other pertinent information are readily available upon request.
*David Pollock is the Bernstein Fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on regional political dynamics and related issues.
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 10- 11/2020

Israel, Morocco agree to normalize relations in latest US-brokered deal
Reuters/December 10/2020
WASHINGTON: Israel and Morocco agreed on Thursday to normalize relations in a deal brokered with US help, making Morocco the fourth Arab country to set aside hostilities with Israel in the past four months. As part of the agreement, US President Donald Trump changed longstanding US policy and recognized Morocco's sovereignty over the Western Sahara. The Western Sahara is a desert region where a decades-old territorial dispute has pitted Morocco against the Algeria-backed Polisario Front, a breakaway movement that seeks to establish an independent state in the territory.
Trump sealed the agreement in a phone call with Morocco's King Mohammed VI on Thursday, the White House said. "Another HISTORIC breakthrough today! Our two GREAT friends Israel and the Kingdom of Morocco have agreed to full diplomatic relations – a massive breakthrough for peace in the Middle East!"Trump tweeted. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed President Donald Trump's announcement of a normalisation deal between Israel and Morocco as an "historic peace between us". Netanyahu said it would lead to direct flights between Morocco and Israel and that the fourth U.S.-brokered deal between Israel and an Arab country in recent months would be a "very warm peace".
In a televised address, he said: "I've always believed that this historic peace would come. I've always worked for it."Thanking Trump, he added: "I want to thank, too, the king of Morocco, King Mohammed the Sixth, for taking this historic decision to bring an historic peace between us."
Morocco is the fourth country since August to strike a deal aimed at normalizing relations with Israel. The others were the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan. Much of the momentum behind the deal-making has been to present a united front against Iran and roll back its regional influence.
Palestinians have been critical of the normalization deals, saying Arab countries have set back the cause of peace by abandoning a longstanding demand that Israel give up land for a Palestinian state before it can receive recognition. With Trump due to leave office on Jan. 20, the Morocco deal could be among the last his team, led by White House senior adviser Jared Kushner and US envoy Avi Berkowitz, will negotiate before giving way to President-elect Joe Biden's incoming administration.
Kushner told reporters on a conference call it was inevitable that Saudi Arabia would eventually strike a similar deal with Israel.
FULL DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS
Under the agreement, Morocco will establish full diplomatic relations and resume official contacts with Israel, grant overflights and also direct flights to and from Israel for all Israelis. "They are going to reopen their liaison offices in Rabat and Tel Aviv immediately with the intention to open embassies. And they are going to promote economic cooperation between Israeli and Moroccan companies," Kushner told Reuters. Trump's agreement to change US policy toward the Western Sahara was the linchpin for getting Morocco's agreement and a major shift away from a mostly neutral stance.
In Rabat, Morocco's royal court said Washington will open a consulate in Western Sahara as part of Morocco's deal with Israel. A White House proclamation said the United States believes that an independent Sahrawi State is "not a realistic option for resolving the conflict and that genuine autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the only feasible solution." "We urge the parties to engage in discussions without delay, using Morocco's autonomy plan as the only framework to negotiate a mutually acceptable solution," it said. Washington had supported a 1991 ceasefire between Morocco and the Western Sahara's Polisario Front independence movement that called for a referendum to resolve the issue. Last month, after a border incident, the Polisario pulled out of that deal and announced a return to armed struggle.
The Trump White House has tried to get Saudi Arabia to sign on to a normalization deal with Israel, believing if the Saudis agreed other Arab nations would follow, but the Saudis have signaled they are not ready. One more Middle East breakthrough is possible. Last week Kushner and his team traveled to Saudi Arabia and Qatar seeking an end to a three-year rift between Doha and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. A tentative deal has been reached on this front but it was far from clear whether a final agreement to end a blockade of Qatar will be sealed. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt have maintained a diplomatic, trade and travel embargo on Qatar since mid-2017. While Biden is expected to move US foreign policy away from Trump's "America First" posture, he has indicated he will continue the pursuit of what Trump calls "the Abraham Accords" between Israel and Arab and Muslim nations. The news broke as Jews marked the first night of the Hanukkah festival of lights, commemorating the 2nd century BC victory of Judah Maccabee and his followers in a revolt in Judea against armies of the Seleucid Empire and the ensuing restoration of the Jewish temple in Jerusalem.

Trump Announces Israel, Morocco to Normalize Relations
Associated Press/December 10/2020
Israel and Morocco have agreed to normalize relations, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Thursday, marking the fourth Arab-Israel agreement in four months. As part of the deal, the U.S. will recognize Morocco's claim over the disputed Western Sahara region. As his time in office winds down, Trump said Israel and Morocco would restore diplomatic and other relations, including the immediate reopening of liaison offices in Rabat and Tel Aviv and the eventual opening of embassies. U.S. officials said it would also include joint overflight rights for airlines. The White House said Trump and Morocco's King Mohammed VI had agreed in a conversation that Morocco would "resume diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel and expand economic and cultural cooperation to advance regional stability." The U.S. will also recognize the country's claim over Western Sahara, the former Spanish North African territory that has been a long-running dispute that has confounded international negotiators for decades, the White House said in a statement. Morocco is the fourth Arab nation to recognize Israel as the administration seeks to expand its "Abraham Accords" framework, which began over the summer with an agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Bahrain and Sudan have followed suit and administration officials have also been trying to bring Saudi Arabia into the grouping. "The president reaffirmed his support for Morocco's serious, credible, and realistic autonomy proposal as the only basis for a just and lasting solution to the dispute over the Western Sahara territory and as such the president recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the entire Western Sahara territory," the White House said. During the conversation, the king agreed to resume diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel and expand economic and cultural cooperation to advance regional stability. All of these countries are geographically far removed from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, making it easier to strike deals with Israel and the U.S. for their own particular interests. Morocco also has close ties with Saudi Arabia, which has given its tacit support to the normalization process with Israel, even at a time when peace making with the Palestinians is at a standstill. Morocco, a country with centuries of Jewish history, has long been rumored to be ready to establish ties with Israel. Before Israel's establishment in 1948, Morocco was home to a large Jewish population, many of whose ancestors migrated to North Africa from Spain and Portugal during the Spanish Inquisition. Today, hundreds of thousands of Israeli Jews trace their lineage to Morocco, making it one of the country's largest sectors of Israeli society, and a small community of Jews, estimated at several thousand people, continues to live in Morocco. The North African country has for years had informal ties with Israel. Israel and Morocco established low-level diplomatic relations during the 1990s following Israel's interim peace accords with the Palestinians, but those ties were suspended after the outbreak of the second Palestinian uprising in 2000. Since then, however, the informal ties have continued, and an estimated 50,000 Israelis travel to Morocco each year on trips to learn about the Jewish community and retrace their family histories.
 

Netanyahu Hails 'Historic' Morocco Normalization Agreement
Agence France Presse/December 10/2020
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday hailed as "historic" a normalization agreement with Morocco and anticipated direct flights between the two countries soon. In a televised address, he thanked Moroccan King Mohammed VI "for taking this historic decision to bring an historic peace between us."Netanyahu said the people of Israel and Morocco have had a "warm relationship in the modern period." "We will resume liaison offices quickly between Israel and Morocco and work as rapidly as possible to establish full diplomatic relations," Netanyahu said. Morocco and Israel had respectively maintained liaison offices in Tel Aviv and Rabat in the 1990s, before closing them in 2000. "We'll also institute direct flights... giving this bridge of peace an even more solid foundation," the premier said. Netanyahu also alluded to a "tremendous friendship shown by the kings of Morocco and the people of Morocco to the Jewish community there." He said the hundreds of thousands Moroccan Jews who immigrated to Israel "formed a human bridge" between the countries. In the 1950s and 60s, Jews from Iraq, Yemen and Morocco migrated to the Jewish state, where key posts were in the hands of Ashkenazi Jews, who hail from Europe. Called Mizrahim, Jewish migrants from Arab states settled outside big cities, and felt excluded at the time by the Israeli left wing, which was then in power. But at the end of the 1970s, Likud, now the right-wing ruling party of Netanyahu, courted their vote to form another electoral base."I've always believed that this historic day would come," Netanyahu said, before lighting a candle for the Jewish Festival of Lights, Hanukkah, which  began Thursday. After the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, Morocco is the fourth Arab state since August to commit to establishing diplomatic relations with the Jewish state. The agreement between Israel and Morocco was announced Thursday by U.S. President Donald Trump, who also said the U.S. would recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara. Netanyahu thanked Trump for "his extraordinary efforts to bring peace to Israel and the peoples of the Middle East".
- 'Political sin' -
Islamist Hamas movement, which controls the Gaza Strip, a Palestinian coastal enclave, quickly slammed the deal between Israel and Morocco. "It is a political sin that does not serve the Palestinian cause and encourages the occupation to continue to deny the rights of our people," Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem, told AFP, referring to Israel. He accused Israel of "exploiting" normalization deals to justify "increasing its settlements." Over the past decade -- particularly under Trump, whose policies have been highly favorable to Israel -- there has been a significant expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem. More than 450,000 Israelis live in settlements in the West Bank, home to about 2.8 million Palestinians. Settlement expansion is widely seen as complicating the prospects for a "two-state solution", which would see a viable Palestinian state created alongside Israel.

Iran blacklists U.S. envoy in Yemen, reciprocating U.S. move
DUBAI/Reuters/December 10, 2020
Iran has blacklisted the U.S. ambassador in Yemen, the Iranian foreign ministry said on Wednesday, a day after Washington imposed terrorism-related sanctions on Tehran’s envoy to the Yemeni Houthis. Tehran’s move, which allows the seizure of assets within Iran of sanctioned individuals, is symbolic and unlikely to have any impact on the U.S. ambassador. “Highlighting his key role in Yemen’s humanitarian crisis, Iran puts Christopher Henzel’s name on its sanctions list,” the ministry said in a statement on its website. On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury blacklisted Hasan Irlu, Iran’s ambassador to the Houthis, describing him as a pillar of Iranian efforts to project its power in Yemen, Syria and elsewhere. Yemen has been locked in conflict since 2014, when the Iran-aligned Houthis group seized Sanaa, the capital, and then much of the country’s north. Iran’s regional foe Saudi Arabia is leading a Sunni Arab coalition fighting the Houthis in the impoverished state on the tip of the Arabian peninsula. The conflict is widely seen as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Writing by Parisa Hafezi; Editing by Gareth Jones
 

US B-52H bombers fly to Middle East in mission to deter Iran
AP/December 10/2020
WASHINGTON: In a new show of military might, two American bomber aircraft took off from the United States and flew over a swath of the Middle East on Thursday, sending what US officials said was a direct message of deterrence to Iran.
The flight of the two massive B-52H Stratofortress bombers over the region, the second such mission in less than a month, was designed to underscore America’s continuing commitment to the Middle East even as President Donald Trump’s administration withdraws thousands of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. The long-range heavy bombers, which are capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons, are a formidable sight and are flown less frequently in the Middle East than smaller combat aircraft, such as American fighter jets. Adversaries often complain about bomber flights in their region, deeming them a provocative show of force. “The ability to fly strategic bombers halfway across the world in a non-stop mission and to rapidly integrate them with multiple regional partners demonstrates our close working relationships and our shared commitment to regional security and stability,” Gen. Frank McKenzie, the top US commander for the Middle East, said in a statement. The troop cuts coupled with the impending departure of the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group in the Gulf have fueled allies’ concerns that the US is abandoning the region. Those worries are compounded by fears that Iran may strike out at the US or allies in retaliation for the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Iran has blamed the death on Israel, which has been suspected in previous killings of Iranian nuclear scientists. US officials are also worried about a possible Iranian retaliatory strike on the first anniversary of the US airstrike that killed Iran’s top general, Qassem Soleimani, and senior Iraqi militia leaders near Baghdad’s airport in early January. Iranian-backed militias routinely launch rockets near installations in Iraq where US and Iraqi troops are based, and officials worry about a larger, more deadly assault. “We do not seek conflict,” McKenzie said, “but we must remain postured and committed to respond to any contingency or in opposition to any aggression.”
A senior military official, who spoke to a small group of reporters on the condition of anonymity to provide details of the mission, said the administration believes that the risk of an Iranian attack on US or allied interests in the region is a bit higher than normal now, and the Pentagon wants to ensure that Tehran thinks twice before doing anything. Adding to the concerns is the presidential transition in the US following Joe Biden’s November victory over Trump. The official said Iran or other adversaries often believe the US may be weaker or slower to respond during a political transition, which American officials flatly deny. Bomber deployments and short-term flights to the Middle East and Europe have been used in the past to message Iran, a few times in the last two years. According to officials, the bombers flew out of Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana on Wednesday and conducted the flight into Thursday. Officially nicknamed the Stratofortress and informally known as the Big Ugly Fat Fellow, the B-52 gained lasting fame in Vietnam as an aerial terror. The two bombers were expected to fly a roughly 36-hour mission, across the Atlantic Ocean and Europe, then cross the Arabian Peninsula and fly down the Arabian Gulf, making a wide loop near Qatar and staying a safe distance from Iran’s coastline before returning home, said the military official. The flight was coordinated with US allies in the region, and aircraft from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar flew with the bombers as they traveled through the airspace, according to the official. US Bombers from Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota flew a similar mission in late November. The USS Nimitz, and as many as three other warships in its strike group, had been scheduled to head home by the end of the year, but they have been held in the region and no new timeline on the departure has been given. Officials, however, have made it clear that the ships’ return hasn’t been decided and the additional time in the Gulf area is open-ended. The Pentagon announced last month that the US will reduce troop levels in Iraq and Afghanistan by mid-January, asserting that the decision fulfills Trump’s pledge to bring forces home from America’s long wars. Under the accelerated pullout, the US will cut the number of troops in Afghanistan from more than 4,500 to 2,500 and in Iraq from about 3,000 to 2,500.
 

Canada/Statement by Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of International Development on Human Rights Day
December 10, 2020 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Honourable Karina Gould, Minister of International Development, today issued the following statement:
“This past year has presented some serious challenges, particularly when it comes to human rights. The pandemic has exposed inequalities and worsened the situation of many groups, including minorities. In some cases, pandemic-related measures have been used to restrict human rights.
“This year’s Human Rights Day is an occasion to affirm our conviction that human rights need to be at the centre of the COVID-19 recovery. Human rights are universal, indivisible, interdependent and interrelated. They are also about equality of opportunity. The people marginalized and most affected by COVID-19 must be heard. Only then will we build a more inclusive, just and equal post-pandemic world that will be safer and more peaceful for all.
“Today, Canada is announcing renewed support for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights [OHCHR] through a contribution of $5 million. This funding will strengthen the OHCHR’s ability to promote and protect the human rights of all people. Canada has been and will remain a consistent and vocal advocate for human rights at home and around the world.”

U.S. and Afghan forces target Al Qaeda in the south
Bill Roggio/Longwarjournal.org/December 10/2020
The U.S. military and Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS) have launched two raids against Al Qaeda’s network in Helmand and Nimroz province over the past several days, killing at least eight operatives and capturing three more. The Taliban continues to maintain that Al Qaeda does not have a presence in Afghanistan, despite multiple raids against the terror group. The U.S. military launched an airstrike on Dec. 3 that targeted a Taliban meeting in Nad Ali district in Helmand province. At least 40 jihadists are reported to have been killed or wounded during the strike, including Abdullah Baloch, the Taliban’s purported shadow governor of Farah province. Eight members of Al Qaeda are also said to have been killed in the Nad Ali airstrike, however their names were not disclosed. U.S. intelligence officials have told FDD’s Long War Journal that Baloch is what is known as a “dual hatted” commander: he leads members of both the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security captured three Al Qaeda leaders on Dec. 6 during a raid in the southwestern province of Nimroz. The NDS identified the Al Qaeda leaders as Mustafa, the leader of Al Qaeda’s “Amar Bil Marof Affairs,” or its prevention of virtue and vice committee, Hafiz Abdul Aziz, and Hayatullah. All three are Afghan citizens. They have been involved with attacks on the Kamal Khan Dam as well as Zaranj City, the capital of Nimroz province. “Mustafa and Hafiz Mohammad recently lived in Iran,” Pajhwok Afghan News reported based on the NDS press release. “They carried out terrorist attacks under leadership of Hafiz Ghulamullah, deputy intelligence head of Al-Qaeda in Nimroz.” Al Qaeda leaders and operatives are known to shelter in Iran, and often cross the border to operate inside Afghanistan. Israel recently killed Abu Mohammad al Masri (Adbullah Ahmed Abdullah), Al Qaeda’s second in command who was wanted by the U.S. government, in an ambush in Tehran, Iran. The U.S. military and Afghan security forces have killed three senior Al Qaeda leaders in Afghanistan over the past 15 months. The U.S. military killed Asim Umar, the head of Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, in the Taliban stronghold of Musa Qala in Helmand province on Sept. 23, 2019. Several Al Qaeda leaders were killed alongside Umar, including Ayman al Zawahiri’s courier. The U.S. military killed Husam Abd-al-Ra’uf, a veteran Al Qaeda leader who served as the group’s media chief, in a raid in Ghazni in Oct. 2020. The NDS killed Mohammad Hanif, another veteran jihadist who once served as the deputy emir of Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, during a raid in Farah province. Despite the repeated targeting, killing, and capturing of Al Qaeda leaders and operatives, the Taliban maintains that the terror group does not operate in Afghanistan. The Taliban maintains that Al Qaeda left Afghanistan after the U.S. invasion in 2001. The Taliban maintains this lie because the Feb. 29, 2020 agreement with the United States stipulates that Al Qaeda cannot plot attacks against the West. In exchange, the U.S. agreed to withdrawal all forces by April 2021. The U.S. government has not held the Taliban to account for its support of Al Qaeda.
*Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.
 

Johnson Tells UK to 'Get Ready' for No-Deal Brexit Collapse
Agence France Presse/December 10/2020
Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Thursday vowed to go the "extra mile" for a Brexit trade deal but instructed his government to prepare for Britain to crash out of the European Union's single market at the end of this year. The gloom deepened over the drawn-out Brexit saga after Johnson and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, over a combative dinner in Brussels, declared a Sunday deadline to decide whether to keep talking or give up. Johnson stressed he wanted his negotiators to "keep going, and we'll go the extra mile" for a last-gasp deal, and said he was ready to travel again to Brussels, as well as to Paris or Berlin, to get one over the line. But speaking after a rare evening meeting of the cabinet, the Conservative leader said his ministers "agreed very strongly with me that the deal on the table is really not at the moment right for the UK".  "So what I told the cabinet this evening is to get on and make those preparations" for no deal, he said. The pound has slumped on currency markets as traders adjust to the looming possibility that after five decades of integration between Britain and mainland Europe, cross-Channel trade will be subject anew to tariffs and quotas in the New Year.
Britain left the EU on January 31 but a standstill transition period, under which it remains bound by the bloc's rules pending any new deal, ends on the night of December 31.
- 'Punishment' -
Without a post-Brexit deal, Britain's trade with its biggest market will in future operate on pared-down World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, or Australian terms as Johnson prefers to call them for public consumption. "We're not stopping talks, we'll continue to negotiate, but looking at where we are I do think it's vital that everyone now gets ready for that Australian option," Johnson said. He accused the EU of shifting the goalposts in the past fortnight by reviving demands for "equivalence", meaning Britain would be bound to follow future regulatory standards laid down by Brussels to prevent either side gaining a competitive edge. Refusal would mean Britain facing "punishment, sanctions, tariffs or whatever", he said. The other big sticking point remained EU members' future access to Britain's rich fishing waters, Johnson noted. "After many years now of voting to leave the EU we wouldn't still have control of our waters and that's no good. And so the cabinet agreed very strongly with it that we're really not there yet at all," he said. Britain's chief negotiator David Frost and his EU counterpart Michel Barnier resumed talks in Brussels on Thursday, despite the mounting pessimism.
Targeted contingencies -
With nerves frayed on both sides of the Channel, von der Leyen's outline of a back-up plan to protect road, air travel and fishing rights was seen as a "no deal" warning shot. Even though talks were still taking place, she said there was "no guarantee" any agreement could be in place by January 1 given the tight timeframe. Several EU members, notably France, have pushed the European Commission and Barnier to take a tougher line, and publish the contingency plan to show Britain they are ready for a "no deal". The Commission, the bloc's executive, called the plan "a set of targeted contingency measures", which would come to an end if a deal is found or after a fixed period. Basic air transport will continue for six months provided Britain agrees to reciprocate, as will access for road haulage.  The interim fisheries regulation would continue until the end of 2021, but it provides for "continued reciprocal access by EU and UK vessels to each other's waters".  Johnson's government, which raised hopes of a breakthrough earlier this week with a separate agreement governing trade in Northern Ireland, promised only to study the proposals while restating its demands for Brussels to respect UK sovereignty.
- 'Terrible disruption' -
Many businesses are aghast at still being forced to wait to learn what rules will operate in three weeks, and accuse the government of failing to plan properly. Congestion building at key seaports is being seen as a sign of things to come. On Wednesday, Japanese car maker Honda suspended production at its Swindon plant, west of London, because of a shortage of components. "I think there's going to be terrible disruption in January," said James Sibley, head of international affairs at the Federation of Small Businesses. "That will continue to be the case after the transition period ends, whether that's with a free trade agreement or otherwise." Johnson, however, was adamant that the UK will "prosper mightily" if needs be without an EU deal. "And there are all sorts of amazing opportunities for this country."

Azerbaijan's 'struggle' with Armenia not over: Erdogan
NNA/AFP/December 10/2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on a visit to Azerbaijan Thursday said Baku's "struggle" with enemy Armenia was not over after his close ally's decisive victory over a disputed region. "Azerbaijan's saving its lands from occupation does not mean that the struggle is over," Erdogan said during a military parade in Baku. "The struggle carried out in the political and military areas will continue from now on many other fronts." Turkey backed its Azerbaijan during recent clashes with Armenian forces over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Hostilities erupted on September 27 and ended six weeks later with a Moscow-brokered deal under which Armenia ceded to Baku parts of the disputed territory and Azerbaijan's adjacent districts it controlled since the 1990s. Ankara was widely accused of dispatching mercenaries from Syria to bolster Baku's army, but denied the charge. Erdogan arrived in Baku to attend nationwide celebrations marking Azerbaijan's victory in the Karabakh conflict. In his speech, the Turkish leader also said that "Karabakh's freedom will be the beginning of a new era" in the region, adding that Armenia must be held responsible for "war crimes" committed during the conflict. -- AFP

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 10- 11/2020

Joe Biden’s Curious Defense of Gen. Lloyd Austin
Thomas Joscelyn/The Dispatch/December 10/2020
Earlier this week, President-elect Joe Biden announced that he would nominate retired Army Gen. Lloyd Austin to serve as secretary of defense. Biden’s choice proved to be immediately controversial for two reasons. First, many on the Hill want a civilian to hold that post. Second, it was widely believed that Michele Flournoy, a highly regarded civilian who previously served in the upper echelon of the Pentagon, would get the nod.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Michigan), a former CIA analyst and acting assistant secretary of defense, was among those making the first objection. “The job of secretary of defense is purpose-built to ensure civilian oversight of the military,” Slotkin tweeted. “That is why it requires a waiver from the House and Senate to put a recently retired military officer in the job.” Despite holding Austin in high regard, Slotkin added, she would “need to understand what he and the Biden Administration plan to do to address these concerns before I can vote for his waiver.”
A congressional waiver is hardly unprecedented. Retired Gen. James Mattis was granted one to serve President Donald Trump’s first secretary of defense. But leading Democrats are hesitant to grant another one for Austin, who retired just four years ago in 2016. Former active duty military personnel don’t need a waiver if they’ve been retired for at least seven years.
In response to critics, Biden and his advisers penned a defense of Austin’s nomination for The Atlantic. Biden begins with an odd justification for picking Austin, arguing that the general played a “crucial role in bringing 150,000 American troops home from the theater of war” in Iraq in 2011. It’s a strange first argument to make on Austin’s behalf for at least three reasons.
First, it used to be that America celebrated generals for winning battles and wars, not withdrawing from them in orderly fashion. This is not a criticism of Austin, so much as a critique of Biden’s stated rationale. Austin undoubtedly faced substantial logistical hurdles in executing America’s exit from Iraq in 2011, but this is not exactly the type of accomplishment that wins one accolades in the history books.
Second, the Obama administration’s withdrawal from Iraq proved to be disastrous, paving the way for the rise of ISIS. The 2003 toppling of Saddam’s regime opened a Pandora’s box of problems. But the 2011 withdrawal from Iraq reopened that same box. The U.S. fought hard to suppress the jihadist threat emanating from that failed state post-2003. Obama, Biden, and other officials often acted as if they could undo the 2003 invasion simply by leaving Iraq. So instead of playing the hand they were dealt and working to keep a residual force in Iraq (as Gen. Austin, Flournoy and others recommended), the Obama team celebrated the supposed “responsible end” of the Iraq War throughout the 2012 presidential campaign.
In reality, there was nothing responsible about it. The American withdrawal, along with the war in neighboring Syria, proved to be a boon for the jihadists’ cause. ISIS drew in tens of thousands of fighters from around the globe, captured territory the size of Great Britain, and declared its nascent state to be a new caliphate. That menace forced the Obama administration to intervene in Iraq once again, as well as in Syria, in 2014. Biden gives Austin, who was the commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) credit for “helping to build a coalition of partners and allies from more than 70 countries who worked together to overcome” ISIS. Fair enough. But that accomplishment only serves to highlight how strange Biden’s opening argument really is.
Third, as a number of other observers quickly noted, Biden’s essay doesn’t mention China, or whether Austin is well-suited to take on the Chinese threat, at all. There is a general consensus in Washington that the old way of looking at China—in which policymakers hoped that the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) relative economic liberalization and the population’s increasing wealth would lead to political reform—is no longer tenable. There is just too much evidence concerning the CCP’s malevolent ambitions and no real evidence that the country, despite its growing economic clout, is on the verge of a real political transformation. Coupled with the CCP’s growing military capabilities, this has led the Defense and State Departments to embrace the concept of “great power competition.”
Even so, there is still much room for debate concerning what this means for America and which policies will be most effective in constraining the CCP’s worst impulses. While the U.S.-CCP rivalry is of paramount importance to top policymakers in the Trump administration, it isn’t at all clear just how urgent it is for the incoming Biden administration. That the Biden team was silent on China in its initial defense of the president-elect’s nomination of Austin suggests that the CCP isn’t on the top of their minds—at least not in the same manner as it is for senior Trump administration officials.
THE CHINA CHALLENGE.
By way of comparison, consider a paper published by the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff in late November. The analysis, titled “The Elements of the China Challenge,” places the rivalry with the CCP at the center of American life. The Policy Planning Staff has a long history dating back to the Cold War, when its strategic assessments were used to conceptualize the U.S.-Soviet Union rivalry. Currently headed by Dr. Peter Berkowitz, the body views the CCP in similar terms, albeit with some key differences. For instance, just as the Soviet Union “combined communism and Russian nationalism” into its own unique form of authoritarianism, so, too, the CCP has fused “communism and a hyper-nationalist interpretation of China’s status and destiny.”
However, whereas the Soviet Union “sought to impose its will through military coercion,” the CCP “primarily pursues the reconfiguration of world affairs” via its growing economic power. That is all the more problematic given that China’s and America’s economies are intertwined. The Policy Planning Staff doesn’t dismiss the CCP’s military power, “saber rattling in the South China Sea,” or “menacing statements” toward Taiwan. These are all components of the “China challenge,” as is the CCP’s oppression of dissidents and minorities in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. But this is not mainly a “military struggle”—at least, thankfully, not yet.
It’s obvious the Policy Planning Staff decided to go big in its assessment. The report’s authors went far beyond the usual banal policy prescriptions to offer something much bolder. For instance, they offer a list of 10 recommendations, at least three of which involve investments in education to combat the Chinese threat. They argue that the U.S. “must reform American education, equipping students to shoulder the enduring responsibilities of citizenship in a free and democratic society by understanding America’s legacy of liberty and also preparing them to meet the special demands of a complex, information-age, globalized economy for expertise in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics.” This is a tall order—to put it mildly. But it demonstrates that the staff doesn’t view the China-U.S. rivalry as a tit-for-tat affair involving discrete issues, but instead as something much more fundamental.
The ideological component of the conflict comes through in several key passages. Consider this one:
Just as America’s commitment to a free, open, and rules-based international order composed of sovereign nation states arises from our dedication to “unalienable rights” — the language that America’s Declaration of Independence uses to describe the rights inherent in all persons — so too does the PRC’s [People’s Republic of China’s] determination to achieve “national rejuvenation” and transform the international order so that it places China at the center and serves Beijing’s ruling ambitions[, which] stem from the CCP’s Marxist-Leninist ideology and hyper-nationalist convictions.
To be sure, the CCP’s “Marxist-Leninist ideology” is a hybrid belief system, as the party has adopted various western-style economic reforms. But the party’s quest for economic growth hasn’t negated its authoritarian aims, which, according to the Policy Planning Staff, include a “reconfiguration of world affairs.”
The report’s authors reproduce a quote from China’s current leader, Xi Jinping, who has explained how his party is harnessing capitalism’s economic successes for its own benefit. “In this long period of cooperation and conflict, socialism must learn from the boons that capitalism has brought to civilization,” Xi said in 2013. “Most importantly, we must concentrate our efforts on bettering our own affairs, continually broadening our comprehensive national power, improving the lives of our people, building a socialism that is superior to capitalism, and laying the foundation for a future where we will win the initiative and have the dominant position.”
The “dominant position”—it’s worth emphasizing those words again, as Xi doesn’t desire a happy co-existence with the U.S., but instead the power to dictate the course of events.
Readers can review the report themselves and draw their own conclusions. Whether one agrees with all of it or not, the key point here is that the Policy Planning Staff’s assessment is an example of how the Trump administration—or at least some key policymakers within it—have come to view China as a threat to the American way of life.
Will the Biden administration see the CCP in similar terms? Or will the Biden team consider China as something less than a civilizational threat, but still problematic? And how does the Department of Defense fit into the Biden team’s view of the rivalry with China?
All of these questions are yet to be answered.
*Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Senior Editor for FDD’s Long War Journal. Follow Tom on Twitter @thomasjoscelyn. FDD is a nonpartisan think tank focused on foreign policy and national security issues.

Biden Must Prioritize Iran’s Human Rights Abuses In Future Talks
Alireza Nader and Tzvi Kahn/ Radio Farda/December 10/2020
In his new memoir, Barack Obama recalls a moment that shocked the world.
In 2009, as protestors swarmed the streets of Iran’s capital, the clerical regime’s Basij militia shot and killed a young woman named Neda Agha Soltan. The 26-year-old philosophy student became a symbol of the uprising after a video of her final moments, her blood gushing on a Tehran street, went viral.
In the White House, however, the reaction was subdued.
Obama writes that his “first impulse was to express strong support for the demonstrators. But when I gathered my national security team, our Iran experts advised against such a move.” The experts feared that robust expressions of U.S. support would “backfire” by delegitimizing the unrest as the product of “foreign agents.”Thus, Obama explains, he “signed off on a series of bland, bureaucratic statements” noting that Washington was monitoring the situation. Tehran, he stated, should respect the rights of its people. The regime ignored him. Protesters chanted, “Obama, Obama, ya ba una ya ba ma!” – “Obama, Obama, either with them [the regime] or with us!” Security forces crushed the protests, the largest mass demonstrations since the 1979 revolution.
Last year, Hillary Clinton, who served as Obama’s secretary of state during his first term, told Iranian human rights activist Masih Alinejad that she regrets her earlier silence in the face of Tehran’s onslaught against Iranian protestors. “I came to regret that we did not speak out more forcefully and rally others to do the same,” Clinton writes in her 2014 memoir, Hard Choices.
Now Joe Biden faces a critical decision just like the one he watched Obama make in 2009. The 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, which the Trump administration abandoned in 2018, remains on life support following two years of crippling U.S. sanctions on Iran. Biden wants to save the accord, but he also wants to support the Iranian people.
In a recent op-ed for CNN, Biden asserts that he would rejoin the agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), if Tehran resumes compliance with it. This step would pave the way for significant sanctions relief, effectively unwinding the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran and greatly diminishing leverage that Washington possesses to deter conduct-based violations of international norms and U.S. law.
After Iran resumed compliance, Biden writes, he would seek “follow-on negotiations” that aim “to strengthen and extend the nuclear deal’s provisions, while also addressing other issues of concern,” including Tehran’s “ongoing violations of human rights.”
This focus on human rights reflects Biden’s larger view of American global leadership. In an essay for Foreign Affairs earlier this year, Biden writes that he intends “to put strengthening democracy back on the global agenda.” America, he proclaimed in November during his introduction of his foreign policy team, “is back, ready to lead the world, not retreat from it.”
Yet if Biden puts the nuclear deal first and lifts sanctions without a change in Iran’s illicit behavior, why would Iran feel any pressure to conduct follow-on negotiations regarding human rights?
Obama also claimed that having a nuclear deal in place would make it easier to address Iranian terrorism and human rights violations. Instead, the Obama administration – perhaps in its eagerness to preserve the JCPOA – rarely spoke about human rights in Iran, and imposed no new human rights sanctions, after the accord’s finalization.
The sequential approach Biden proposes would simply repeat Obama’s error.
Instead, Biden should make clear that if Iran fails to respect the basic rights of its citizens, he will speak out forcefully and rally other democratic governments to do the same. The regime’s repression – as well as Iran’s cratering economy, among other regime failures– spurred mass uprisings in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Reuters estimates that Tehran killed approximately 1,500 demonstrators in November 2019 alone. The country is likely to witness further mass uprisings as the Islamic Republic clings to power in the face of a disaffected and angry population.
Rather than provide sanctions relief to Iran merely for its return to the JCPOA, Biden should condition sanctions relief, as well as any future nuclear agreement, on the termination of Tehran’s human rights abuses. Standing up for human rights is not just consistent with Biden’s principles; it is a powerful source of leverage in any negotiations with the Tehran regime, which fears its own people as much as or more than it does the United States.
The Trump administration also had trouble recognizing this key point. While Trump expressed more robust support for Iranian protesters than Obama did, the outgoing administration did not list human rights as one of the 12 conditions that Iran must meet for any future agreement.
Biden has emphasized how Donald Trump abandoned American values abroad. Iranians have been trying to curtail the despotic powers of their rulers for over one hundred years. In other words, they have been trying to embrace America’s most notable achievement: constitutional government that matters. No other Muslim Middle Eastern people have tried as hard for so long. Is Biden going to ignore that quest for the hope that mendacious theocrats, who oversaw the slaughter of hundreds of thousands in Syria, are going to forsake their nuclear ambitions?
*Alireza Nader is a senior fellow at FDD focusing on Iran and U.S. policy in the Middle East. He also researches the Islamic Republic’s systematic repression of religious freedom and currently serves on ADL’s Task Force on Middle East Minorities.
*Tzvi Kahn is a research fellow at FDD focusing on Iran. He previously worked as a senior policy analyst at the Foreign Policy Initiative, where he published extensively on Iran’s nuclear program and regional ambitions. Tzvi also served as assistant director for policy and government affairs at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). From 2013 to 2014, he was an FDD national security fellow. Follow them on Twitter @AlirezaNader and @TzviKahn. FDD is a nonpartisan think tank focused on foreign policy and national security issues.

America Must Take North Korea’s Cyber Warfare Capabilities Seriously
Mathew Ha/The National Interest/December 10/2020
While it has not launched any new missiles since July, North Korea instead demonstrated its hostility with cyber-attacks throughout 2020. What can Washington do to push back?
While it has not launched any new missiles since July, North Korea instead demonstrated its hostility with cyber-attacks throughout 2020. Pyongyang’s latest targets were several pharmaceutical companies developing coronavirus vaccines. Overall North Korea’s cyber operations continue increasing in sophistication to pose more complex security challenges for the United States and its allies.
North Korean cyber capabilities have evolved since Pyongyang’s first reported attacks in July 2009. Initially focused on disrupting websites, servers, and computer networks in South Korea and the United States, the Kim regime now uses cyber operations to conduct global espionage and evade sanctions. One North Korean hacking group alone has compromised financial institutions in as many as thirty countries, generating “substantial revenue” for the regime, according to the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).
The Trump administration has deployed a range of tools attempting to limit the impact of North Korean cyber operations and to impose costs on those who conduct malicious campaigns. CISA has served an instrumental role in strengthening U.S. cyber defenses against North Korea through its publication of detailed technical alerts and reports regarding North Korea’s newest malware and cyber tactics. These alerts and reports provide valuable information to industries and companies so that they can reinforce their network infrastructure against hackers.
As General Paul Nakasone, the head of U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency, explained, publicly releasing enemy malware “makes that malware less effective because defenses can be tuned to detect and defeat it.”
Additionally, the Trump administration has sought to disrupt Pyongyang’s cyber activities and punish those responsible for attacks by pressing charges and restricting access to financial assets.
For instance, in September 2018, the U.S. government imposed financial sanctions and unsealed an indictment against a North Korean computer programmer, Pak Jin Hyok, for his role in numerous cyberattacks. A year later, Treasury sanctioned the Lazarus group, a state-backed North Korean hacking unit, and the Blueneroff and Andariel groups, both Lazarus subsidiaries. In March 2020, the Treasury Department sanctioned and the Justice Departments indicted two Chinese currency traders, Tian Yinyin and Li Jiadong, for helping North Korean hackers launder stolen virtual currencies to traditional fiat currency.
Building on these measures, the Justice Department has begun seeking authority by filing complaints to seize the proceeds from Pyongyang’s cyber campaigns in March and again in September.
The United States has also employed offensive cyber operations to dismantle the infrastructure of North Korean cyber campaigns. In 2017, U.S. Cyber Command reportedly conducted operations to cut off the regime’s internet access. Two years later, the FBI and the Air Force Office of Special Investigations mapped and disrupted a botnet used by North Korean hackers.
Collectively, the Trump administration’s campaign against North Korea provides a robust framework for Washington to confront North Korea’s malicious cyber operations. And yet, to date, they have failed to stem the attacks. For example, after pressing charges in March against the two Chinese currency traders Tian and Li, the Justice Department found that the traders pulled their remaining funds from their virtual currency accounts. Tian and Li went on to continue laundering North Korean funds through highly sophisticated and deceptive techniques aimed at evading detection.
Likewise, while the 2017 U.S. cyber-attack did initially overwhelm North Korea’s internet connection, North Korea overcame this hurdle by establishing a new internet connection through a Russian telecommunications company called TransTelecom. Recorded Future, a U.S-based cyber security company, assessed that North Korea’s domestic internet usage increased by 300 percent since 2017 partially because of TransTelecom’s internet connection.
One reason why the United States has been unable to stem North Korea’s cyber operations is that earlier offensive efforts missed critical targets. Thus far, Treasury has targeted only a North Korean programmer and three government-backed hacking organizations. Earlier U.S. sanctions have demonstrated the capabilities of U.S. intelligence and law enforcement to attribute cyberattacks to individuals and organizations directly linked to the Kim regime. The sanctions have also provided useful information from a network defense perspective. However, these measures have been more symbolic than substantive.
Sanctions can have a meaningful impact on North Korea’s cyber capabilities by closing off their lines of funding. But to achieve that objective, they must target the front companies and banks that finance these hackers’ activities.
The designation of the two Chinese cryptocurrency traders in March was a good first step. The next step is for Treasury and Justice to investigate the banks that these individuals used to launder stolen North Korean money. The Justice Department revealed that these traders moved their illicit funds through nine different Chinese banks. Treasury should reach out to these banks to ensure they have blocked any suspicious transactions and were not complicit in illegal activity. If Treasury were to find these or other financial institutions continuing to launder North Korea’s stolen cyber funds, it should impose penalties, including fines and sanctions.
To make U.S. cyber policy toward North Korea more effective, Treasury should also publish technical advisories to inform banks and cryptocurrency exchanges about the unique deceptive tactics Pyongyang’s crypto-launderers employed to disguise their illegal activity. These advisories would differ from CISA’s, which focus on resolving computer security issues. Treasury’s advisories would provide information about money laundering techniques to equip compliance officers at banks and cryptocurrency exchanges to detect suspicious activity. Collectively, these efforts can disrupt North Korea’s cybercrime operations at their final stage, when the hackers are trying to cash out on their spoils.
Moreover, along with sanctions, the United States should continue offensive cyber campaigns. However, these operations should focus less on dismantling Pyongyang’s cyber infrastructure, but on imposing costs on the Kim regime. The aforementioned U.S. offensive in 2017 shows how North Korea can recover and even strengthen its limited internet network capacity after these cyber disruption campaigns. Instead, the offensive cyber operations most likely to be costly for Kim and impact regime decision-making are cyber-enabled information campaigns.
The Kim regime considers the influence of foreign media and information as a major threat to its survival, because such content directly undermines its propaganda justifying the Kim regime’s legitimacy. These information campaigns should provide North Koreans with insight on “attractive alternatives to their current way of life” to sow doubt in the regime’s current policies, according to Andrei Lankov, a renowned expert on North Korea. Such messages could encompass topics such as the universal human rights and civil liberties that the regime fails to respect.
Cyber-enabled information campaigns provide a unique opportunity for the United States and its allies to influence a small yet influential segment of North Korea’s populace. In North Korea, only elite citizens in the ruling political party or the military have internet access. If these efforts succeeded in widening social fissures between North Korea’s elite and Kim Jong-un, the Biden administration could gain enormous leverage when engaging North Korea not just on cyber issues, but also on efforts to achieve denuclearization.
North Korea will not stop with its persistent cyber intrusions until there is a more assertive response from the United States and its allies. The incoming Biden administration therefore must continue building upon its predecessors’ efforts. The Trump administration provided its successor with a robust framework to confront North Korea. It is now up to the Biden administration to refine and enhance this strategy.
*Mathew Ha is a research analyst focused on North Korea at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP) and Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation (CCTI). For more analysis from Mathew, CEFP, and CCTI, please subscribe HERE. Follow Mathew on Twitter @MatJunsuk. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

U.S. Takes Tougher Tone With Turkey as Trump Exits
Lara Jakes/The New York Times/December 10/2020
WASHINGTON — No longer restrained by President Trump’s affection for Turkey’s authoritarian leader, U.S. officials and Congress are using the waning days of his presidency to ready sanctions and strike a strident tone against the strategic but unreliable ally.
Turkey, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, has vexed the administration almost since its start. That has been as much Mr. Trump’s doing — and his admiration for its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan — as that of actions by the government in Ankara, which has abused human rights, imprisoned Americans and journalists, and muscled into confrontations from Syria to Libya to the Caucasus to the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
The redirection of U.S. policy also will require President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. to carefully bring Turkey back into the West’s embrace and keep from pushing it closer to Russia.
“For years, President Trump has personally shielded Erdogan and Turkey,” said Senator Chris Van Hollen, Democrat of Maryland. He said the incoming Biden administration “will be an important check on Erdogan’s efforts to expand his influence at our expense, in a way that undermines our interests.”
“It’s a little bit of a crossroads for Erdogan,” Mr. Van Hollen said in a recent interview. “He’s going to have to make a decision — is he going to be the faithful NATO ally, or is he going to go it alone in the region?”
Congress is poised this week to approve economic sanctions against Turkey for buying Russian missile defense systems early in Mr. Trump’s term, potentially exposing NATO military technology to Moscow. Mr. Trump stalled the sanctions last year, after the defense systems were delivered to Turkey.
For the first time, and after Ankara tested the system this fall, White House officials have informed Turkish diplomats that the Trump administration will not oppose the congressional sanctions, according to two people involved in the discussions.
Instead, they said, the sanctions are meant in part to warn Egypt, India, Saudi Arabia and other nations that have signaled interest in purchasing Russian military equipment.
At a meeting of foreign ministers from NATO nations last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo criticized Turkey on several fronts, according to a person briefed on his comments. His statements — against Turkey’s defense purchases, its exploration of natural gas in disputed waters in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and its support of foreign forces in external conflicts such as Libya — showed that Mr. Pompeo had wearied of trying to temper rising tensions among European allies and American lawmakers.
“We are concerned about some of the Turkish behavior,” Kay Bailey Hutchison, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, told reporters ahead of the foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels. “The idea that you could put a Russian-made missile defense system in the middle of our alliance is out of bounds.”
The European Union is weighing its own sanctions against Turkey as retaliation for separate disputes with Greece, Cyprus and Germany in a decision that could come as soon as Thursday, according to a European diplomat in Washington.
Taken together, Turkey is feeling increasingly isolated, according to a senior official in its government.
Last month’s basing of a U.S. Navy expeditionary ship at Souda Bay, off the Greek coast, signaled that Turkey was no longer the key U.S. ally in the Eastern Mediterranean, the senior official said.
The Abraham accords brokered this fall by the Trump administration — fostering normalized relationships among Israel and three Arab states, Bahrain, Sudan and the United Arab Emirates — harnessed Middle Eastern countries that are hostile to the Muslim Brotherhood. The Islamist movement is supported by Mr. Erdogan. The senior Turkish official also described feeling snubbed by Mr. Pompeo’s visits this fall to rivals in Cyprus and Greece, and then his tour of Istanbul with his wife in November instead of going to Ankara to meet with government leaders.
The expected sanctions are sure to hammer Turkey’s already strained economy and may force Mr. Erdogan to pull back from most of his military missions abroad. (One exception would be in neighboring Syria, where Turkey is battling Islamic State militants and American-backed Kurdish fighters; Mr. Erdogan considers both of the groups to be terrorists and is unlikely to retreat.)
Experts warn that this could push Turkey into Russia’s arms if Mr. Biden is not careful.
“Relations with Turkey will be a major, urgent question for the Biden administration,” said James F. Jeffrey, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Iraq who retired last month as the State Department’s special envoy for Syria policy and the coalition to defeat the Islamic State.
“Given the country’s size, location, economic and military power, and the pro-Western sentiments of the population — if not its president — does it make sense to sideline Turkey or push it into the Russian camp?” Mr. Jeffrey said.
He noted that Turkey and Russia have been on opposite sides in ongoing conflicts in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. It also remains a critical NATO ally in Iraq and Afghanistan, and opposes Iran’s regional advances.
The senior Turkish official described Mr. Erdogan’s interests as ultimately having more in common with the West than with Russia. But, he said, how the Biden administration approaches the dispute over the missile defense systems will be a first test.
It is far from certain a compromise can be struck. But the Turkish official said Mr. Biden’s advisers have indicated in low-level discussions they were open to considering compromises as they are proposed, including convening a NATO working group to look at whether Russia could indeed penetrate Western military systems through the missile defense systems.
A spokesman for Mr. Biden’s transition team declined to comment.
The senior Turkish official also said that Mr. Biden’s advisers have made clear they will engage with Turkey through traditional and technical diplomatic channels — and not rely on the kind of spontaneous and direct lines of communication that marked the relationship between Mr. Trump and Mr. Erdogan.

Iraq Troop Withdrawal Was Austin’s Failure — and Biden’s
Eli Lake/Bloomberg/December 10/2020
One of the stranger aspects of President-elect Joe Biden’s selection of retired General Lloyd Austin to be his secretary of defense comes in his explanation of why he made the choice. In an essay in the Atlantic, Biden says he chose Austin because of how he oversaw the withdrawal of U.S. forces in 2011 from Iraq. “Pulling that off took more than just the skill and strategy of a seasoned soldier,” Biden wrote. “It required Austin to practice diplomacy, building relationships with our Iraqi counterparts and with our partners in the region.”
Biden is certainly in a position to know this. He was the Barack Obama administration’s point man on Iraq when he served as vice president. What’s puzzling is why Biden would select Austin because of – not in spite of – his role in the U.S. retreat from Iraq. The 2011 decision was a strategic blunder that Biden and Obama reversed in part in 2014, after an Islamic State army had taken Iraq’s second largest city and was threatening Baghdad.
A big reason why Obama agreed to a full withdrawal of forces from the country was because Austin, Biden and U.S. Ambassador James Jeffrey failed to get the Iraqi parliament to approve a provision that stipulated U.S. forces remaining in Iraq would not be tried in Iraqi courts. This may seem like a technical detail, but almost all status-of-forces agreements with foreign countries include such provisions.
Jeffrey explained in a policy paper released after he left his post in Baghdad that Iraq’s prime minister and president informed him that the country’s parliament would support a small U.S. presence in the country, but would not support the exemption from Iraqi law. After that, the White House announced the full withdrawal.
Austin does not deserve all of the blame for this failure. The Obama administration was slow to give a firm number of troops it wanted in Iraq throughout 2011. When the administration finally settled on 5,000, Iraqi leaders who were privately supportive of a continued U.S. troop presence worried that Obama’s commitment was not serious. Also, the administration failed to cajole the prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, to share power with the more pro-American party that had won the most votes in Iraq’s 2010 election.
The full withdrawal from Iraq became a problem for U.S. interests soon after the last troops left, in several ways. For example, the absence of a U.S. military presence meant that there was no credible force inside of Iraq to deter regional rivals from using its airspace. Iran soon after began sending flights through Iraq into Syria to resupply the regime and its allied militias there.
Maliki also became emboldened after all U.S. forces left. He tried to have one of his vice presidents arrested, and declared a kind of martial law in Anbar province, where the U.S. had years earlier persuaded Sunni tribal leaders to switch sides and fight al-Qaeda.
Eventually, Obama had to send forces back into Iraq and later Syria. Austin was by then promoted to commander of Central Command, which encompasses the Middle East. He helped devise the outlines of the military strategy that ended up defeating the Islamic State after Donald Trump became president. It was a small contingent of U.S. special operators mixed with air power and local forces, comprised primarily of ethnic Syrian Kurds. Austin, though, never approved the looser rules of engagement that many military analysts credit with helping turn the tide against the Islamic State.
None of this is to say that Austin’s role in the U.S. withdrawal in 2011 is disqualifying. He was serving a president who campaigned on ending the Iraq war. Biden says Austin’s command of the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq showed a mastery of logistics, which will be important for a defense secretary who will oversee the distribution of the Covid-19 vaccine.
But Biden’s plea in the Atlantic to support his nominee is troubling nonetheless. The 2011 withdrawal from Iraq was an error forced by a failure of diplomacy. One would hope Biden learned from this experience. His defense of Lloyd Austin suggests he has not.

Iran’s abuse of diplomatic norms a threat to the West
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/December 10/2020
It is very rare for an active diplomat to be put on trial. The alleged crime has to be extremely serious for a government to take a diplomat from another country to court. But this is exactly what is happening with the Iranian Assadollah Assadi in Belgium — the first time in the history of Iran that one of its active diplomats has been on trial on foreign soil.
The trial is a total embarrassment for the Iranian regime. Assadi is on trial because the regime reportedly tried to orchestrate a terrorist operation in Europe in 2018. French officials foiled a planned bomb attack in Paris against a large “Free Iran” convention that was organized by the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) and attended by tens of thousands of people, including many high-level speakers, such as former US House of Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich, ex-New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird.
If the bomb plot were not detected and foiled, it would likely have been the largest terrorist act ever sponsored by a foreign government. Assadi is accused of personally delivering explosives and a detonator to two agents. At the time of the plot, he was serving at the Iranian Embassy in Vienna and was also a senior officer for Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security. If he is found guilty, prosecutors have asked the court to sentence Assadi to the maximum sentence of 20 years in prison.
The theocratic establishment has been using various tactics to escape the embarrassing trial. At first, it demanded the immediate release of Assadi by invoking diplomatic immunity. But a German court stated that Assadi did not enjoy diplomatic immunity in Germany, where he was arrested. Secondly, the Iranian diplomat has refused to cooperate with the European authorities and also threatened that, if he is convicted, Iran’s proxies will take revenge.
“During his preventive detention, Assadollah Assadi refused to collaborate with the Belgian justice, but he threatened reprisals. On March 9, 2019, he informed the director of Beveren prison that he wished to meet with an investigator. He told him that, if he was convicted, ‘armed groups’ were ready to act against police officers, witnesses, or the PMOI supporters,” according to Le Monde newspaper. Assadi also did not show up for the first day of his trial, apparently under an order from Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.
It is unlikely that Assadi would plot such a large terrorist attack without the knowledge of senior leaders in the Iranian regime, including his boss, Minister of Intelligence Mahmoud Alavi, as well as Zarif and the Supreme National Security Council, which reports directly to President Hassan Rouhani and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This means that any member of Iran’s leadership who was aware of the bombing must also be held accountable. The US has already imposed sanctions on Zarif, calling him a propaganda minister who enables Khamenei’s agenda.
The international community should also be aware that it is believed that the Iranian regime uses its embassies and consulates in foreign countries as cells to promote extremism and support militias and proxies. For example, an Iranian ambassador and 14 other diplomats were expelled from Kuwait in 2017 over their links to a spy and terror cell. Iran’s cultural and military missions were also ordered to shut down. This highlights the fact that Tehran does not respect international standards of diplomacy. Instead, it exploits the trust of other governments to advance its revolutionary and hegemonic ambitions.
The regime exploits the trust of other governments to advance its revolutionary and hegemonic ambitions.
Iran can give its intelligence agents various diplomatic roles in order to allow them to freely travel across the Western world. Because of his diplomatic position, Assadi was reportedly capable of taking the explosives on a commercial flight from Tehran to Vienna without being caught. It is worth noting that Iranian diplomats are key enablers of Khamenei’s fundamentalist agenda abroad. The West must not give them a free pass just because they are “diplomats,” officials or employees of the Iranian government.
The Iranian regime has also been accused of murdering dissidents on European soil. Ahmad Mola Nissi, a Dutch citizen of Iranian origin and a critic of the regime, was gunned down on his doorstep in November 2017. The Dutch authorities arrested and then released two Iranian Embassy staff in the wake of the killing. The country’s intelligence agency also publicly acknowledged it had “strong indications” that the Iranian government had commissioned the murders of two other political opponents on Dutch soil.
If the Iranian regime does not halt its terrorist activities through its proxies and alleged diplomats, governments must take appropriate action by breaking diplomatic ties with Tehran.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Trump determined to designate pro-Iran groups as terrorist
Maria Maalouf/Arab News/December 10/2020
President Donald Trump wants his years in the White House to be remembered as the most anti-Iranian in the recent history of the US. He does not want to launch a war against Tehran, but he wants to make tough statements that include practical actions to contain Iran. In this regard, there are serious attempts now being pushed forward in Washington to classify both the pro-Iranian Houthis in Yemen and the Badr militia in Iraq as terrorist groups. There are many important implications for such a strategy. It is also critical to mention that there are those who oppose the Trump administration designating these two groups as terror organizations.This move faces many difficulties. In Yemen, the UN, a number of European countries, such as Germany and Sweden, and some refugee and relief organizations doing humanitarian work are against labeling the Houthis as terrorists. They fear that such a categorization would make humanitarian work more dangerous and lead to a hardening of the Houthis’ position in the negotiations currently being conducted. Ultimately, they fear this could intensify the civil war in Yemen.
In Iraq, the Badr Organization is very powerful and has strong ties with the government. It was able to attack the US Embassy in Baghdad last year. It works very closely with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Hezbollah Brigades in Iraq, and other Iraqi groups that are supportive of Iran. In spite of all the criticism of Iran-entrenched influence in Iraq, no US administration has sought to stop the work of this militia, since it was perceived by some as being integral to the security of Iraq, which is so unstable and so militant.
The Trump administration wants to hold the Houthis and Badr militia responsible for the destruction of their two nations. It is defending the rights of other groups and individuals that are fighting against these two organizations. The US government knows a great deal about them. They have been subject to much surveillance and monitoring by American agencies. Therefore, the Trump administration can be fair in designating these two groups as terrorists.
It is noticeable that there is a subtle division of labor in the pursuit to classify the Houthis and Badr Organization as terror groups. On Badr, the initiative has been submitted as a congressional bill and is attributable to Republican Rep. Joe Wilson of South Carolina, who is the ranking member of his party on the Middle East, North Africa, and International Terrorism Subcommittee of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. His proposed legislation is called the Badr Organization Designation Act of 2020. It has a big mandate, since it will aim to uncover any American taxpayer money funneled to Badr from the funds given to Baghdad by the US government. It also has to assess Badr’s role in the Popular Mobilization Forces, which guarantee much of Iraq’s internal security in coalition with the Iraqi government. And it has to investigate the role Badr played in the attack on the US Embassy compound in Baghdad last year.
On the other hand, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has emerged as the most articulate campaigner against the Houthis in Yemen. He has insisted that proclaiming the Houthis a terror group would be one more step in the direction of isolating Iran and making the containment of Tehran a more aggressive Western-American strategy.
The classification of the Houthis and Badr as terror groups would also identify a number of their members as persons subject to sanctions. It would clear the way for policies to freeze their financial assets and punish those who deal with them. It could also begin an international effort to arrest and put on trial their leaders over their involvement in terrorist activities. These huge tasks require that President-elect Joe Biden and his administration consent to such a policy and continue the work to reveal the dangers of these two groups’ schemes. However, it could be doubted that Biden would personally favor a policy of targeting two of Iran’s allies, since he hopes to be more conciliatory with Tehran. Finally, a number of steps have to be taken if the Trump administration’s wishes are to be fulfilled. The legislation has to garner as much support as possible among both Republicans and Democrats. The move must also be requested by the governments of Yemen and Iraq. The White House wants to hold the Houthis and Badr militia responsible for the destruction of their two nations.
This way, the American effort to establish the Houthis and Badr militia as terror groups would be complementary to the political stance embraced by these two Arab countries. Moreover, there has to be a declared history of these two lethal groups’ long record of terrorism. And there should be warnings that not labeling them as terrorist organizations would boost their terror plans and tactics. Trump has, in four years, formulated a new policy toward Iran based on political realism. He is not willing to tolerate groups that kill innocent people in Yemen and Iraq. This tendency to confront and disarm terror groups undoubtedly meets the security needs of many nations in the world. Trump has never been afraid of Iran. The objective of his strategy on terror is to make the world safe for all, not just for “democracy,” as Woodrow Wilson said 100 years ago. Sadly, many world leaders do the opposite. So Trump and his final actions against the Houthis and the Badr Organization can be good examples of why and how states fight terror.
*Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher, and writer. She holds an MA in Political Sociology from the University of Lyon. Twitter: @bilarakib