English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 07/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news

 

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Bible Quotations For today
Sell your possessions, and give alms. Make purses for yourselves that do not wear out, an unfailing treasure in heaven
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 12/32-34/:”‘Do not be afraid, little flock, for it is your Father’s good pleasure to give you the kingdom. Sell your possessions, and give alms. Make purses for yourselves that do not wear out, an unfailing treasure in heaven, where no thief comes near and no moth destroys. For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also.”
 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 06- 07/2020

The South Lebanese Army (SLA) and their Families Are Patriotics And Not Israeli Agents/Elias Bejjani/December 06/2020
Health Ministry: 1236 new cases of Corona, 9 deaths
Presidency Information Office denies circulated news by al-Jadeed Channel
Al-Rahi to officials: Are you not ashamed?
Al-Rahi to Officials: Don't You Feel Ashamed?
Hariri to Present 18-Seat Govt. Line-Up in Next 48 Hours
Picture Goes Viral after Child Loses Parents in Car Crash
Austrian Ambassador visits Baalbek's tourist attractions
Italian Ambassador visits Shouf Cedar Reserve
Hashem fears temple would tumble over everyone's head if stalemate situation persists
Stationery & books from Italian students to their counterparts in Lebanon
Daher anticipates ‘no government formation’ for the next 4 to 5 months
Geagea before a delegation from Batroun’s Niha: Forensic audit has taken its right course and we will follow it until the end
 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 06- 07/2020

Iran confirms nuclear scientist Fakhrizadeh killed by satellite-controlled gun
Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei hands power to son due to health – report
Biggest Iranian flotilla en route to Venezuela with fuel, defying US sanctions
GCC: Iran nuclear deal must take account of regional countries’ interests
Bethlehem Lights Up Christmas Tree as Virus Rules Keep Crowds Away
95 Arrests at French Security Law Protests
Israel Says Abraham Accords an 'Opportunity' for Palestinians
Saudi, Israeli Officials Spar at Regional Conference
Jailed Saudi Activist Accused of Passing Classified Information
Kuwait Opposition Makes Strong Gains in Parliamentary Elections
Greek FM: Turkey threatens the stability of Europe, Arabs, Caucasus

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 06- 07/2020

Iran Missile Upgrades Complicate GCC Defense Efforts/Riad Khahwaji/Breaking Defence/December 06/2020
The Biden Team’s Fixation on Retaliation/Raghida Dergham/ December 6, 2020
The nuclear fallout from the nuclear assassination - analysis/Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/December 06/2020
France Is Still Under Attack/Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute./December 06/2020
Major power rivalry in the Black Sea/Luke Coffey/Arab News/December 06/ 2020
How an eastern Med incident played into Turkey’s hands/Yasar Yakis/Arab News/December 06/ 2020
Why Europe must fill regional void left by US/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/December 06/ 2020
If Iran doesn’t want to get burnt, stop stoking the flames/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/December 06/ 2020
Pragmatist Biden will be dealing with ideologues in Irans/Raghida Dergham/The National/December 06/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 06- 07/2020

The South Lebanese Army (SLA) and their Families Are Patriotics And Not Israeli Agents
Elias Bejjani/December 06/2020

http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/93370/elias-bejjani-the-south-lebanese-army-sla-and-their-families-are-patriotics-and-not-israeli-agents-%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b4-%d9%88%d8%a3%d9%81%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%af-%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b4-%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86/
Our piece today addresses the unfair, slander, injustice and false tag accusations that are harshly inflicted on the South Lebanese Army members (SLA) and their families who are in reality and by all standards patriots and heroes and not Israeli agents.
This intentional misrepresentation forged by the leftist coalition regrouped under the umbrella of the “ National Movement “ الحركة الوطنية during the war interlude of 1972-1990, who fought against the SLA and the “Lebanese Front” political parties for years in a bid to occupy Lebanon, massacred Lebanese and strove to erect a surrogate Palestinian State in Lebanon...
All these Arabists, leftists, Palestinians and Jihadists who supported or fought under the National Movement were and most probably still see the patriotic SLA members as enemies and according tagging them as traitors reflects their hostile and anti-Lebanese vicious agendas.
These deliberate misrepresentations and slandering are quite understandable on the part of the National movement, الحركة الوطنية but adamantly rejected when stated by politicians, public activists, journalists and individuals originally affiliated with the Lebanese Front political formations." الجبهة اللبنانية,.
SLA was part of the Lebanese Front, fighting for the same cause and along the same principles and logged a heavy record of 2000 martyrs ....
Meanwhile many SLA soldier were and still are members in most of the Lebanese Christian political parties.
In summary, any tagging of SLA on the part of the former Lebanese Front affiliates, is an insult to the cause they have been fighting for, a besmirch to its legacy, an utter disgrace to all those who convey it and a pathetic act of licking the rasp.

Health Ministry: 1236 new cases of Corona, 9 deaths
NNA/December 06/2020
The Ministry of Public Health announced, on Sunday, that 1236 new Corona cases have been reported, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 137,112.
It also indicated that 9 death cases were also registered during the past 24 hours.

Presidency Information Office denies circulated news by al-Jadeed Channel
NNA/December 06/2020
The media office of the presidential palace announced this evening that the news broadcasted on by Al Jadeed related to the president’s stands regarding the formation of the government are lies and not related to reality. It is noticed that this TV station intends to broadcast such false news almost on daily bases despite the explanations issued by the media office, which indicates the station’s insistence on fabricating news and stories and attributing them to the President of the Republic contrary to reality and truth.The media Office of the presidential palace stresses the need to pay attention to these actions and rely only on the news issues by the media office.
Presidency Press Office

Al-Rahi to officials: Are you not ashamed?
NNA/December 06/2020
"Where are our political officials in terms of the virtues of mercy, justice and fairness?" questioned Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, in his religious sermon during Sunday Mass in Bkirki this morning. Rahi criticized the Lebanese officials' failure to provide aid to the people who are growing poor and destitute day after day, with their need for food, medicine and fuel, because of the prevailing politics and corruption. "Aren't officials in Lebanon feeling ashamed? Is there any justification for not forming a new government that would lift Lebanon, which has reached a state of collapse at the economic, financial, livelihood and security levels, and bring it back to the system of nations? Where is their individual as well as their national conscience?" the Patriarch continued to question. "Regardless of the actual reasons delaying the announcement of a new government, we call on the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister-designate to overcome all of these reasons and take the courageous step by forming an exceptional rescue government outside the political and partisan quota system," he added. "Do not wait for the politicians to agree, they will not agree. Do not wait for the regional conflicts to end, for they will not end...Form the government of the people, since they are the beginning and the end, and they will ultimately decide the fate of Lebanon," al-Rahi corroborated.

Al-Rahi to Officials: Don't You Feel Ashamed?
Naharnet/December 06/2020
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday saluted the 40 nations and organizations that took part in the latest international conference for supporting the Lebanese people but he lamented that the closing statement did not mention the “Lebanese state.”“It only addressed the Lebanese people. Don’t the officials in Lebanon feel ashamed?” al-Rahi wondered in his Sunday Mass sermon. “With great regret, we noticed the absence of the government of Lebanon, because we don’t have a government,” the patriarch added. Addressing President Michel Aoun and PM-designate Saad Hariri, al-Rahi said: “Whatever the real reasons delaying the new government might be, we call on the president and the PM-designate to rise above all those reasons and take a courageous step towards forming an extraordinary rescue government free of political and partisan share splitting.”
“Do not wait for politicians’ agreement for they will not agree and do not wait for the end of regional conflicts for they will not end,” the patriarch urged.

Hariri to Present 18-Seat Govt. Line-Up in Next 48 Hours
Naharnet/December 06/2020
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri will present a draft cabinet line-up to President Michel Aoun in the next 48 hours, media reports said.
“Hariri has prepared a list of candidates for an 18-minister mission government and will submit it to President Aoun,” highly informed political sources told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper in remarks published Sunday. The draft “abides by the French specifications,” the sources added. The PM-designate’s move is aimed at making a “breakthrough,” the sources went on to say, revealing that Hariri had announced this in a secret meeting with ex-PMs Fouad Saniora and Tammam Salam on Friday.
Ex-PM Najib Miqati did not attend the meeting due to his presence in London, the sources noted.

Picture Goes Viral after Child Loses Parents in Car Crash
Naharnet/December 06/2020
A picture of a toddler girl in an ambulance has gone viral on social media in Lebanon after the parents were killed in a car crash. “Lebanese citizen Hassan Almas al-Zunji and his wife were killed in a traffic accident overnight on the Assad Highway in Beirut, as their two-year-old daughter survived,” the National News Agency said. A picture of a visibly affected Lebanese Red Cross medic holding the apparently unscathed child inside an ambulance has been widely shared on social networking websites, with users describing it as very moving. The YASA NGO posted the picture on its social media accounts, urging greater road safety awareness and measures in Lebanon.

Austrian Ambassador visits Baalbek's tourist attractions
NNA/December 06/2020
Baalbek - Austrian Ambassador to Lebanon, René Paul Amry, visited on Sunday the city of Baalbek, accompanied by his wife and two sons, at the invitation of Member of the International Tourism Federation and Secretary of the Lebanese Federation of Tourist Trade Unions, Ihab Raad, where the Austrian diplomat toured the ancient monuments in the Baalbek Citadel and the Great Umayyad Mosque. In this context, Ambassador Amry told the National News Agency: "I visited Lebanon previously in 1981, and the aim of my visit today is to get to know the places protected by UNESCO in this historic castle."
He added: "I came to Baalbek with my family to introduce them to the most beautiful areas and heritage alleys in Lebanon. I hope in the future we will also see more beautiful places to attract tourists again." In turn, Raad said: "In light of the difficult health and economic conditions we are living in, and the negative stereotypes spread in the media about the city of Baalbek, it was necessary to invite a friend, Ambassador Amry and his family, who is closely familiar with the history, culture and features of Lebanon since his father was Austria's Ambassador to our country as well, to affirm that Baalbek is a safe city and opens its heart to all its visitors.""Tourism is the backbone of Baalbek's economy and institutions, and it must be activated properly," Raad corroborated.

Italian Ambassador visits Shouf Cedar Reserve
NNA/December 06/2020
Italian Ambassador to Lebanon, Nicoletta Bombardiere, visited today the Shouf Cedar Reserve, accompanied by a delegation from the Italian Agency for Development and Cooperation headed by its Office Director in Syria and Lebanon, Donatella Procese, with the aim of inspecting the works accomplished in the Reserve within the framework of projects funded by the Agency. The Italian Ambassador and her accompanying delegation were welcomed at the beginning of the tour by Mrs. Nora Joumblatt, Shouf Cedar Reserve President Charles Njeim, Director of the Reserve Nizar Hani, and various members of the Reserve and their colleagues from the "Oikos" Foundation.In his welcoming word, Njeim stressed "the importance of the historical relationship between Italy and Lebanon," thanking "Italy for the constant support it provides to the Shouf Cedar Reserve, one that has become well-known for its transparency and loyalty to its work and to its partners." In turn, Mrs. Jumblatt welcomed the Italian Ambassador's visit and thanked the delegation for their keen interest and cooperation provided to the Reserve and its beautiful surrounding region. She added: "The Italian Embassy, the Italian Agency and the Shouf Cedar Reserve have always worked side by side. This strategic partnership has proven its effectiveness over the years, and the evidence is clearly seen in the achievements that have been made at the levels of the administration, infrastructure and capacity building." For her part, the Italian Ambassador expressed her appreciation for the warm welcome and hospitality she received at the Reserve, and the pride she takes in the work that has been accomplished with the Reserve's team so far. "This partnership was an opportunity for the two teams to exchange experiences, especially since the Shouf Cedar Reserve has become today a model in achieving sustainable development goals," said Bombardiere, commending the Reserve's winning of the award for joining the green list prepared by the International Union for the Protection of Nature (IUCN). At the tour's end, a cedar was planted in the name of both Bombardiere and Procese, in the Baroque Cedar Forest, to remain a token of loyalty and appreciation for what the Italian side offers to the Cedar Reserve, and to perpetuate the lasting friendship between the peoples of Lebanon and Italy.

Hashem fears temple would tumble over everyone's head if stalemate situation persists
NNA/December 06/2020
"Development and Liberation" Parliamentary Bloc Member, MP Kassem Hashem, said in a statement following his meetings with popular delegations who visited him at his Shebaa residence today, that "the stalemate situation marking the government dossier increases the severity of the accumulated crises at the political, economic, financial and social levels, far-reaching the security conditions if things continue at this pace, especially that all those concerned about Lebanon have held the Lebanese responsible for the current situation and its deterioration, based on the dire need for a government of competent and experienced members to take its role in the rescue process.”He added: "Everyone has the intention to help the Lebanese out of the collapse that has afflicted the national structure, and this is what we saw in the meeting of the Parliamentary Health Committee with representatives of the World Bank in Lebanon and their call to accelerate the formation of a government to fulfill its duty and deal with international institutions to set a priorities program, particularly at the health and social levels, in light of the prevailing economic, daily living and health crisis."
Hashem warned that quick actions are needed to end the suffering of the people and to address the severe economic crisis, the increase in unemployment, and the widening of the circle of poverty. “This requires vigilance of the national conscience to take bold decisions and give up some sectarian, regional and partisan gains, and work to accelerate the formation of a rescue government that has a clear mission and a specific deadline to accomplish its goals,” he underlined. The MP concluded by stressing that the affairs of the country and the people cannot wait and the luxury of time is not available, cautioning against any further stalling and betting on outside developments and regional and international changes for fear that the structure would totally collapse over everyone.

Stationery & books from Italian students to their counterparts in Lebanon
NNA/December 06/2020
Rome - The Italian contingents operating within the "UNIFIL" in their countries of presence, work to help the local population and relieve their sufferings by providing assistance of any kind, relying on the support of Italian NGOs and the Italian army. In this context, 160 classrooms in the Governorate of Pesaro presented books, notebooks, pens and backpacks, dedicated to supporting Lebanese students after the August 4 explosion, at the request of the 28th Regiment in the Italian Army and a special initiative launched on November 20, entitled “From Italy's Students to Lebanon's Students to Learn Together,” which will be distributed by the Italian UNIFIL contingent operating in South Lebanon. In this connection, Head of the Municipal Council in Pesaro, Marco Perugini, told the National News Agency: "We are committed to the appeal launched by the United Nations to support the Lebanese capital, and solidarity has no color."In turn, Lebanon’s Ambassador to Rome Mira Daher, who coordinated the initiative between the Lebanese authorities and the 28th Regiment, said in a statement to NNA that “this initiative is an example of the meaning of humanity and brotherhood.”

Daher anticipates ‘no government formation’ for the next 4 to 5 months
NNA/December 06/2020
MP Michel Daher stressed in an interview with “Voice of Lebanon 93.3” Radio Station this morning, that "the country cannot continue in this manner," calling for "facing the economic and financial realities, no matter how difficult."
Daher expected that the new government will not see the light prior to 4-5 months ahead, noting that "what is required at this stage is to activate the work of the caretaker government because the alternative does not exist."
In response to a question, Daher described the last session of the Parliament Council as “a shameful play since no one wants forensic audit, for it will indict all those who stole and looted for years." "The political class wants the French initiative, but does not want reforms. The country is heading towards an abyss," he added regretfully. Regarding the lifting of subsidies on basic commodities, Daher stressed "the necessity of determining the real numbers at the Central Bank as a first step," considering that “the Parliament cannot decide on the issue of subsidies if the picture is not fully clear."
“A large percentage of the subsidies go to waste to the rich and to smuggling across borders,” he said, calling for "direct support for the poor and underprivileged by giving each family an amount of one million Lebanese pounds."

Geagea before a delegation from Batroun’s Niha: Forensic audit has taken its right course and we will follow it until the end
NNA/December 06/2020
"Lebanese Forces" Party Chief, Samir Geagea, on Sunday, affirmed that "the forensic audit has finally taken its right path and we will follow it step by step till the end."“Despite the very difficult and challenging situation in which we are living today, and the bitter and harsh conditions, we will spare no effort to pursue our struggle until the end to get the country and its people out of the current status quo towards a free and decent daily-living and state sovereignty,” he stressed. Touching on the Beirut Port blast, the LF Chief said: "If the local investigation into the Beirut Port explosion does not lead to clear, actual and convincing results, then we will definitely try with all our power to go to the International Criminal Court in order to uncover the truth and the circumstances of this crime." Geagea’s words came during a meeting with a delegation from the town of Niha in the district of Batroun, who visited him at the Party’s general headquarters in Maarab, in the presence of “Strong Republic” Bloc Member, MP Fadi Saad, and senior Party officials. Praising the townsmen for their steadfastness and determination to remain deeply-rooted in their lands, Geagea pledged to remain by their side to overcome this delicate stage and trying times.
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 06- 07/2020

Iran confirms nuclear scientist Fakhrizadeh killed by satellite-controlled gun
AFP /Monday 07 December 2020
A satellite-controlled machine gun with “artificial intelligence” was used in last week’s assassination of a top nuclear scientist in Iran, the deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards told local media Sunday. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was driving on a highway outside Iran’s capital Tehran with a security detail of 11 Guards on November 27, when the machine gun “zoomed in” on his face and fired 13 rounds, said rear-admiral Ali Fadavi. The machine gun was mounted on a Nissan pickup and “focused only on martyr Fakhrizadeh’s face in a way that his wife, despite being only 25 centimeters (10 inches) away, was not shot,” Mehr news agency quoted him as saying. It was being “controlled online” via a satellite and used an “advanced camera and artificial intelligence” to make the target, he added. Fadavi said that Fakhrizadeh’s head of security took four bullets “as he threw himself” on the scientist and that there were “no terrorists at the scene”. Iranian authorities have blamed arch foe Israel and the exiled opposition group the People’s Mujahedeen of Iran (MEK) for the assassination. State-run Press TV had previously said “made in Israel” weapons were found at the scene. Various accounts of the scientist’s death have emerged since the attack, with the defense ministry initially saying he was caught in a firefight with his bodyguards, while Fars news agency claimed “a remote controlled automatic machine gun” killed him, without citing any sources. According to Iran’s defense minister, Amir Hatami, Fakhrizadeh was one of his deputies and headed the ministry’s defense and Research and Innovation Organization, focusing on the field of “nuclear defense”.

Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei hands power to son due to health – report

Jerusalem Post/December 06/2020
If true, it is unclear if the role is permanent, as it goes against the Iranian constitution's laws regarding succession.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may have transferred power to his son amid concerns over his declining health, Iranian journalist Momahad Ahwaze reported Saturday.
Taking to Twitter, Ahwaze wrote in Arabic that sources in Iran were concerned regarding the 81-year-old leader's health, and those close to him are reportedly "very concerned" over his deteriorating condition.
As such, his powers have reportedly been transferred to his 51-year-old son, Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, who currently oversees several important security and intelligence departments in the country. European sources have pegged Mojtaba as a potential successor to the supreme leader's position for over 10 years, and British news outlet The Guardian even dubbed him "the gatekeeper to Iran's supreme leader" in a 2009 article. Ahwaze noted that it is unclear what has caused such deterioration in the supreme leader's condition overnight, though he did suspect it could be prostate cancer.
Khamenei's deteriorating health has also reportedly seen the supreme leader cancel some important meetings, such as a recently scheduled meeting with President Hassan Rouhani, according to Ahwaze. Khamenei has been in power since 1989, having taken over following the death of the Islamic Republic's founder, Ruollah Khomenei. However, he has had health issues in the past, and in 2014 had surgery on his prostate. According to French news outlet Le Figaro in 2015, Western sources believed the supreme leader had suffered from prostate cancer.
No official confirmation has been made regarding any potential transfer of power, and media outlets have been unable to confirm it. The Iranian journalist gained notoriety due to his coverage of the Islamic Republic's COVID-19 outbreak, despite Tehran's attempts at downplaying its severity, Newsweek reported.
If his reports are true, it would mean that Khamenei is stepping down following increased tensions with the US and Israel, as Tehran blames the Jewish state for the assassination of its chief nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, on November 27.In addition, it is unclear if the succession will be permanent, as it goes against the constitution's rules regarding appointing a new supreme leader. According to Article 111 of Iran's constitution, the supreme leader's successor is to be chosen by the Assembly of Experts, which currently consists of 88 ayatollahs. In the interim, the country would be administered by a provisional leadership council, which would consist of Iran's president, chief justice and a member of the guardian council. However, according to articles from the prestigious Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank, it may not be as simple as that, with outside pressure such as from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps likely wanting a role in the process, due to the military body's influence on the Assembly of Experts.

Biggest Iranian flotilla en route to Venezuela with fuel, defying US sanctions
Bloomberg/Sunday 06 December 2020
Iran is sending its biggest fleet yet of tankers to Venezuela in defiance of US sanctions to help the isolated nation weather a crippling fuel shortage, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Some of the flotilla of about 10 Iranian vessels will also help export Venezuelan crude after discharging fuel, the people said, asking not to be named because the transaction is not public. The Nicolas Maduro regime is widening its reliance on Iran as an ally of last resort after even Russia and China have avoided challenging the US ban on trade with Venezuela. The country’s fuel crunch follows decades of mismanagement, corruption and under-investment at state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela since the time of Maduro’s late mentor and predecessor, Hugo Chavez. The country that was once a top supplier of crude to the US and boasted one of the lowest domestic gasoline prices in the world, now can barely produce any fuel. The last Iranian fuel shipments sent in early October on three vessels are running out, threatening steeper nationwide shortages with hours-long queues at gas stations. The current fleet under sail is about double the size of the one that first startled international observers in May, crossing a Caribbean Sea patrolled by the US Navy, to be greeted by Maduro himself upon arrival. “We’re watching what Iran is doing and making sure that other shippers, insurers, ship owners, ship captains realize they must stay away from that trade, Elliott Abrams, the US special representative for Iran and Venezuela, said in September.
Several vessels that transported fuel to Venezuela earlier this year, including Fortune and Horse, turned off their satellite signal at least ten days ago, according to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data. Turning off transponders is a commonly used method by ships hoping to avoid detection. In other instances of Iranian aid to Venezuela, ship names were painted over and changed to obscure the vessel’s registration. The oil ministry in Tehran declined to comment on the matter. Messages sent to several officials at PDVSA, as Venezuela’s state oil company is known, weren’t immediately answered.
In addition to importing fuel, Venezuela also needs to export enough crude oil to free up storage space and prevent field stoppages, a task made more difficult by the sanctions against Maduro’s regime. Production at
Venezuela’s network of six refineries has gone into steady decline, with spills and accidents becoming routine. Maduro’s government has increased pressure on the poorly-maintained infrastructure to ensure output for local consumption.
Sanctions have made it difficult to import parts or hire contractors, and the Maduro regime is running out of cash. Consequently, the two nations are also discussing ways for Iran to help Venezuela overhaul its Cardon refinery, the last fuel plant there to operate more or less regularly, people with knowledge of the situation said. In 2018, Chinese oil companies also looked at helping Venezuela fix its refineries, but lost interest after a review of the installations, people familiar with those plans said. It’s unclear whether the Iranians would be able to achieve what the Chinese didn’t. Venezuela’s refineries were built and operated for decades by US and European oil majors until nationalization in the 1970s. Even then, PDVSA relied on US technology and parts for maintenance and expansions. This means the Iranians will need to make certain parts from scratch to carry out key repairs. Some fixes made in June and July haven’t been successful yet and four local contractors are still conducting repairs, said one of the people. Maduro is under renewed international pressure after the opposition decided to boycott Dec. 6 National Assembly elections that are widely considered to be overseen by Maduro loyalists. Maduro is hoping for a big turnout to claim he has public support.

GCC: Iran nuclear deal must take account of regional countries’ interests
Arab News/December 06/ 2020
Al-Hajraf: GCC calls on Iran to fulfil its IAEA commitments, fully cooperate with the organisation’s inspectors
He added it is regrettable that Iran continues to violate UN resolutions and has not shown respect for international law
LONDON: Any nuclear agreement with Iran must take into consideration the interests of countries in the region, the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) secretary-general said on Sunday. Speaking at the IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, Nayef Falah Mubarak Al-Hajraf said the GCC called on Iran to fulfil its International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) commitments and to fully cooperate with the organization’s inspectors. “Iran is still using the methods of hostility, violence and creating instability in the region as an approach for it to achieve its political goals,” Al-Hajraf said at the security conference. Iran’s nuclear program and its repeated attempts to conceal its efforts to get a nuclear weapon continues to pose a threat to international peace and security, the secretary-general said. He added that it is regrettable that Iran continues to violate UN resolutions and has not shown any respect for international law, especially the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Bethlehem Lights Up Christmas Tree as Virus Rules Keep Crowds Away
Agence France Presse/December 06/ 2020
Bethlehem lit up its Christmas tree on Saturday evening but without the usual crowds, as novel coronavirus restrictions put a damper on the start of Christmas festivities in the holy city. Palestinian authorities last week announced measures, including a night-time curfew, across the Israeli-occupied West Bank for 14 days to fight a "worrying spread" of the virus. Locals and pilgrims traditionally gather each year for the lighting of the tree in Manger Square, near the Church of the Nativity, built on the site where Christians believe Jesus was born. But this year, only a small crowd of journalists was present due to coronavirus restrictions, an AFP photographer said. Carmen Ghattas, director of public relations at the Bethlehem municipality, told AFP that Palestinian prime minister Mohammed Shtayyeh had lit up the tree remotely from his office in Ramallah. The West Bank, with a Palestinian population of more than 2.8 million, has officially recorded 71,703 coronavirus infections, including 678 deaths.
Israel has occupied the territory since 1967.

95 Arrests at French Security Law Protests
Agence France Presse/December 06/ 2020
Police arrested 95 people during protests across France against a planned security law, and 67 officers were injured during the demonstrations, Interior Minister Gerard Darmanin said Sunday. In Paris, the site of the worst violence, 48 police officers or gendarmes were injured during Saturday's street clashes, the interior ministry said on Twitter. A firefighter was also injured in the capital after being hit by a projectile, a police source said. Paris police held 25 people, including two minors, said the prosecutors' office. It was the second weekend of violence in the capital during protests against a security bill currently going through French parliament. Demonstrators clashed with police, vehicles were set alight and shop windows smashed. The weekly nationwide protests are becoming a major headache for President Emmanuel Macron's government, with tensions intensified by the beating of a black music producer by police last month. Paris city officials and others also expressed outrage over the way police broke up an improvised migrant camp in the heart of Paris in November. Darmanin has ordered an investigation into the incident. The numbers demonstrating on Saturday were significantly down, with the nationwide figure at 52,350 against 133,000 a week earlier, the interior ministry said. Around 5,000 people demonstrated in Paris against 46,000 last week, it added. A police source on Saturday blamed the violence on 400 to 500 radical elements. There were also clashes in the eastern city of Nantes, where four officers and a gendarme were injured, one of them by a Molotov cocktail, said local officials. There was violence, too, in the eastern city of Lyon.

Israel Says Abraham Accords an 'Opportunity' for Palestinians
Agence France Presse/December 06/ 2020
The landmark Abraham Accords that Israel has struck with two Gulf states are an opportunity for the Palestinians and do not come at their "expense," Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi said Sunday.
The UAE and Bahrain broke decades of Arab consensus with their move, condemned as a "stab in the back" by Palestinian leaders for abandoning the position that there would be no relations with the Jewish state until it made peace with the Palestinians.
But at a regional security conference in Manama, Ashkenazi said that the diplomatic shift could help resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, after talks between the two sides were frozen in 2014. "The Abraham accords do not come at the expense of the Palestinians. Quite the opposite, they are an opportunity that should not be missed," he said in a virtual address. "I call on the Palestinians to change their minds and enter direct negotiation with us without preconditions. This is the only way to solve this conflict," he said. "We believe as Israel moves from annexation to normalization, there is a window to solve this conflict," he said, referring to its agreement to put annexation plans on hold in return for the normalization deal. The United States, which brokered the Abraham Accords, has been intensively negotiating for more Arab nations to come in board, notably Saudi Arabia, the biggest Gulf power.
Saudi to sign up? -
Mutual concern over Iran has gradually brought Israel and Gulf nations closer, and there were reports last month that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had held secret talks in Saudi Arabia, fueling speculation a normalization accord could be in the making. Riyadh, however, denied that the meeting, reportedly between Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, had occurred. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told AFP in Manama Saturday that the kingdom's position remained resolute. "We've been quite clear that in order for us to proceed with normalization we will need to see a settlement of the Palestinian dispute and the formation of a viable state of Palestine along the lines envisioned in the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative," he said. "Without a settlement between the Palestinians and the Israelis we are not going to see true peace and stability in the region."
Asked whether that effectively ruled out the establishment of ties with Israel any time soon, he said he was "optimistic that there is a path towards a resolution between the Palestinians and Israelis." However, Prince Turki al-Faisal, the Saudi former intelligence chief who is said to be close to the top leadership, gave voice to the strong support that the Palestinian cause still has in the region, with a fiery presentation to the Manama meeting. He accused Israel of depicting itself as a "small, existentially threatened country, surrounded by bloodthirsty killers who want to eradicate her from existence." "And yet they profess that they want to be friends with Saudi Arabia," he said, outlining a history of forcible eviction of Palestinians and destroyed villages."You cannot treat an open wound with palliatives and painkillers. The Abraham Accords are not divine writ."

Saudi, Israeli Officials Spar at Regional Conference
Agence France Presse/December 06/ 2020
An influential Saudi prince launched a bitter attack on Israel at a regional conference Sunday, drawing retorts from Israel's foreign minister who addressed the gathering virtually. The row erupted months after the UAE and Bahrain broke decades of Arab consensus by normalizing ties with Israel, a move condemned as a "stab in the back" by Palestinians. Prince Turki al-Faisal, a Saudi former intelligence chief who is said to be close to the country's top leadership, reiterated strong support for the Palestinian cause in a fiery presentation to the Manama Dialogue security forum.
In unusually blunt language, he accused Israel of depicting itself as a "small, existentially threatened country, surrounded by bloodthirsty killers who want to eradicate her from existence." "And yet they profess that they want to be friends with Saudi Arabia," he said.
He described the Jewish state as a "Western colonizing power" and outlined a history of forcible eviction of Palestinians and destroyed villages. Palestinians were held "in concentration camps under the flimsiest of security accusations -- young and old, women and men, who are rotting there without recourse to justice," he said. He said the Israeli authorities are "demolishing homes as they wish, and they assassinate whomever they want."Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi addressed the meeting by videoconference shortly afterwards, expressing his "regret" over the comments, which come after years of covertly warming relations between the two Mideast powers. "The false accusations of the Saudi representative at the Manama Conference do not reflect the facts or the spirit & changes the region is undergoing," he said in a tweet. "I rejected his remarks & emphasized that the 'blame game' era is over. We are at the dawn of a new era. An era of peace."Prince Turki, who said his comments reflected his personal view, voiced skepticism over the US-brokered Abraham Accords, to which Washington has been urging the kingdom to sign up. "You cannot treat an open wound with palliatives and painkillers. The Abraham Accords are not divine writ," he said.
'Two clear camps'
The agreements between the two Gulf states and Israel have undermined the Saudi-sponsored 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which maintained that Arab states would not establish relations with the Jewish state until it made peace with the Palestinians -- a position Riyadh has reiterated in recent months. However, Ashkenazi said the agreements were an opportunity for the Palestinians and offer a "window to solve this conflict". "The Abraham accords do not come at the expense of the Palestinians. Quite the opposite, they are an opportunity that should not be missed," he said, urging them to return to peace talks which were frozen in 2014. Despite Prince Turki's blunt rhetoric, mutual concern over Iran has gradually brought Israel and Gulf nations closer, and Riyadh itself has quietly been building relations with the Jewish state for several years. Reports last month that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had held secret talks in Saudi Arabia fueled speculation that a normalization accord with the Gulf's top power could be in the making. Riyadh, however, denied that the meeting had occurred. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told AFP on Saturday that the kingdom's position remained resolute. "We've been quite clear that in order for us to proceed with normalization we will need to see a settlement of the Palestinian dispute and the formation of a viable state of Palestine along the lines envisioned in the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative," he said in an interview in Manama. Asked whether that effectively ruled out the establishment of ties with Israel any time soon, he said he was "optimistic that there is a path towards a resolution between the Palestinians and Israelis."

Jailed Saudi Activist Accused of Passing Classified Information
Agence France Presse/December 06/ 2020
Jailed Saudi activist Loujain al-Hathloul is accused of contacting "unfriendly" states and providing classified information, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister told AFP, after the campaigner's trial was transferred to a terrorism court.
Hathloul, 31, was arrested in May 2018 with around a dozen other women activists just weeks before the historic lifting of a decades-long ban on female drivers, a reform they had long campaigned for. Saudi authorities late last month transferred her case to the draconian anti-terrorism court, her family said, raising the prospect of a lengthy prison sentence, despite international pressure for her release. "There are accusations of dealing with states unfriendly to the kingdom and with providing classified information and other issues like that," Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said during a visit to Manama, the capital of Bahrain. "It's up to the courts to decide... what the facts are," he added, without giving any further details. Hathloul's treatment has been sharply criticized by rights groups, and her sister Lina al-Hathloul said that during the three years of pre-trial detention, no evidence to support the allegations had been put forward. "Loujain's charges don't mention any contact with 'unfriendly' states -- they explicitly cite her contact with the EU, the UK and the Netherlands. Does Saudi Arabia consider them as enemies?" she said to AFP. "The charges don't mention anything about sensitive information either, they are all about her activism -- they accuse her of speaking about the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia in international conferences and to NGOs." Lina al-Hathloul said her sister was not aware of what the classified information is. Hathloul, who recently went on a two-week hunger strike in prison, was visibly "weak" and "shaking uncontrollably" when she appeared on November 26 at Riyadh's criminal court, where she has been tried since March 2019 in closed-door sessions, Lina has said. Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy, faces growing international criticism for its human rights record, even as US President-elect Joe Biden's incoming administration could intensify scrutiny of its human rights failings. "We don't look at international pressure on these issues one way or the other," Prince Faisal said. "These are domestic issues of our national security and we will deal with them in an appropriate manner, through our court system."  While some detained women activists have been provisionally released, Hathloul and others remain imprisoned on what rights groups describe as opaque charges. The pro-government Saudi media has branded them as "traitors" and Hathloul's family alleges she experienced sexual harassment and torture in detention. Saudi authorities vigorously deny the charges.

Kuwait Opposition Makes Strong Gains in Parliamentary Elections
Agence France Presse/Arab News/December 06/ 2020
Kuwait's opposition took nearly half of parliament's seats in weekend polls amid calls for reforms over corruption and high debt, but the sole female lawmaker lost her seat. Twenty-four of the National Assembly's 50 seats were won by candidates belonging to or leaning towards the opposition, up from 16 in the last parliament, according to results announced on Sunday by the electoral commission on state TV. But while 29 women ran for office in Saturday's race, none were elected -- a blow to the status of women who have fought hard over recent years for more representation in the oil-rich emirate, after winning the right to vote 15 years ago. Nevertheless, the election of 30 candidates under the age of 45 sent out a promising signal to youth hoping for change and reform. The election, which takes place every four years, was overshadowed by Covid-19 and a consequent paring back of campaigns that in normal times draw thousands for lavish banquets and over-the-top events. Five polling stations -- one in each electoral district -- were designated for those infected with coronavirus. The polls were the first since the new emir, Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, took office in September following the death of his half-brother, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, at the age of 91. The country has the Gulf's oldest elected parliament, but under the constitution the emir has extensive powers and can dissolve the legislature at the recommendation of the government. Thirty-one new faces will enter the new parliament, results showed.
The Muslim Brotherhood-linked Islamic Constitutional Movement(ICM) won three seats, while candidates from the Shiite minority population won six.
- 'Big change' -
"There is a big change in the composition of the new National Assembly," Kuwait analyst Ayed al-Manaa told AFP. "This an indication of the voters' anger over the performance of the previous parliament and of their desire for change in economic, health, education" and services, he said. Like most Gulf countries, Kuwait's economy has been hit hard by the double whammy of the pandemic and the depressed price of oil. Political parties are banned in Kuwait, which has been ruled by the Al-Sabah family for two and a half centuries. The country adopted a parliamentary system in 1962. Many groups operate freely as de facto parties. The opposition coalition is made up of individuals, rather than well-defined parties with a distinct ideology. While parliament has the power to vote the prime minister and cabinet members out of office, the Kuwaiti political set-up means change is not easy.
Power is concentrated in the royal family, with the emir choosing the prime minister and 15 of the 16 cabinet posts. As per protocol, the cabinet resigned on Sunday.

Greek FM: Turkey threatens the stability of Europe, Arabs, Caucasus
Rawad Taha, Al Arabiya English/Monday 07 December 2020
Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias said Turkey is carrying out military operations on foreign lands and occupying lands in neighboring countries, and threatening to ignite a war, stressing that it threatens Europe's stability, the Arabs, and the Caucasus. The Greek Foreign Minister added that Turkey disputes the sovereignty and sovereign rights of European countries, indicating that it transfers extremists and interferes in other countries' internal affairs by supporting extremist movements. Dendias pointed out that if Turkey's departure from European values is not condemned, those who advocate modernization and improve relations with Europe within Turkish society will be weakened in the domestic arena.
Exploiting the migrant crisis
Also, Greek FM accused Ankara of exploiting the migrant crisis and violating human rights locally, and creating a sphere of influence in the region. He considered that Turkey had become a clear threat to Europe's stability, the Middle East, the Arab world, and the Caucasus region in general.
NATO allies Greece and Turkey entered into a tense confrontation in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey is exploring energy reserves on the seabed in an area that Greece claims is within its continental shelf. The conflict between Ankara and Athens
Ankara says it has every right to explore and prospect there, accusing Greece of trying to seize an unfair share of marine resources. The Greek armed forces were put on alert. Both countries have sent warships to the region, and live ammunition exercises are being conducted in the area between Crete, Cyprus, and Turkey's southern coast. Also, simulated battles between Greek and Turkish pilots over the Aegean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean have multiplied. Two Turkish and Greek frigates collided last month, causing minor damage to the Turkish frigate but no injuries. The current crisis is the most dangerous in decades in the history of relations between the two countries.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 06- 07/2020

Iran Missile Upgrades Complicate GCC Defense Efforts
Riad Khahwaji/Breaking Defence/December 06/2020
Arab Gulf States must improve ISR, EW capabilities and extend their early warning range and enhance systems' integration to counter Iran's ballistic missile threat
DUBAI: Arab Gulf States need to improve force integration, establish better shared-awareness capabilities, improve ISR and EW effectiveness and move from commanding the battle concept to managing the battle to successfully counter Iran’s evolving ballistic missile program, says Khalid Al Bu-Ainain Al Mazrouei, advisor to the deputy supreme commander of UAE Armed Forces.
Iran is working on utilizing its satellite launch vehicles (SLV) to build longer range ballistic missiles that will provide its arsenal with missiles that exceed the 2,500-km range it currently has.
“Iran is developing the Shehab-4/SLV with a range of 3,500-km and Shehab-5/SLV with a range of 5,300, and this will increase the altitude of the missiles to 1,100-km, their trajectory, their speed and narrow interception time,” the former commander of the air force and air defense of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said in a presentation at the Manama Air Power Symposium. When they become operational, the missiles will be able to hit any target in Europe, as well as cover large parts of Asia and Africa.
He pointed out that the UAE and other Arab Gulf States have managed to build a multilayered ballistic missile defense capability that can provide a low endo (atmospheric) and high endo interception capability against missiles that are below the range of 2,500-km, such as Shehab-3 and Sejil missiles. Once Iran acquires much longer range missiles, an exo-atmospheric interception capability must be integrated within the regional missile defense system.
“Arab Gulf States currently have the Patriot PAC-3 and the THAAD for endo interception, and probably we will need something like an extended-range THAAD or a THAAD block-2 to do the job,” Al Mazrouei added.
Iran has been proliferating ballistic missile technology to its allied militias throughout the region. The Iranian-backed Houthi militias in Yemen have fired more than 200 ballistic missiles against Saudi Arabia since the Yemen war broke out more than five years ago. Reports by the United Nations and the United States have concluded that recovered pieces of ballistic missiles fired by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia were manufactured in Iran.
After several failed attempts, Iran successfully put a military satellite into orbit last April, demonstrating its ability to build SLV, which is regarded as an important step towards developing medium range ballistic missiles that can reach 5,000-km, and possibly intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM). Experts believe that only the United States has the capability to intercept such long-range missiles while in exo-atmospheric stage.
“There’s really nothing currently in the Middle East that can achieve an exo-atmospheric interception, but plenty that can achieve a terminal descent interception against an exo-atmospheric missile,” David Des Roches, of the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, said.However, Des Roches argues that missile defense systems procured by Arab Gulf States are sufficient to deal with the current and next generation Iranian ballistic missiles.
“While the exact speeds of both (Shehab 4 & 5) are unknown to the public, the THAAD missile is believed to reach Mach 8 and can thus intercept an ICBM in the terminal phase – this has been tested in recent years. Patriot may be able to do so as well, but in a much more limited set of conditions,” said Des Roches, who served as Pentagon director of Arabian Peninsula Affairs..
Al Mazrouei underlined the need for Arab Gulf States to acquire long-range radars that cover 360 degrees and deploy them in each of the GCC states, which would enable them to monitor missile defense launches anywhere inside Iranian territories. He also stressed the importance of enhancing the connectivity and integration between the command and control air defense centers of all regional states.
“The GCC Hizam Al-Taawun aircraft identification and tracking system (HAT)” that was deployed by Raytheon in Arab Gulf States in 2001, linking all their air defense centers, “needs to be improved and upgraded,” asserted Al Mazrouei.
Des Roches agreed that a more robust C4ISR capability is required to enhance the missile defense effectiveness of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – that groups Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar.
“The most pressing issue is the lack of an integrated GCC warning, tracking, and interception capability. Right now, there are multiple national systems, with attendant underlap and overlap, all operating roughly in synch with a US system which forms the missile defense backbone,” Des Roches added. “A true GCC integrated network of sensors and shooters would be the most effective solution – it would be more easily integrated into the existing US framework and would reduce national costs and vulnerabilities.”
“There must be a better shared awareness picture between GCC states, and an improved ISR and EW capability and effectiveness,” said Al Mazrouei. “Extending the ballistic air defense range is a must to deal with the evolving Iranian ballistic missiles threat.”“There are two emerging threats posed by the Iranian missile program – increases in accuracy, and increases in range,” concluded Des Roches.
Al Asad air base’s missile damage from Iranian attack
This increase in Iranian capability places bases and assets of the U.S. military in the Gulf region under constant threat.
Ayn Al-Assad Air base in Iraq, where American troops were stationed, was hit by multiple Iranian ballistic missiles last January 8, in retaliation for the U.S. assassination of a senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. No casualties were reported in the incident.
“Iran may soon have the ability to hit a US aircraft carrier in the Gulf – I have argued for years we should never send them in there” said Des Roches.

The Biden Team’s Fixation on Retaliation
Raghida Dergham/ December 6, 2020
US President-elect Joe Biden has made his decision and chose to go down the path of avoiding Iranian retaliation as the starting sequence for his relationship with Iran, in parallel with his admission that he would back down from the maximum pressure policy of his predecessor Donald Trump. He has done so believing this policy will defuse tensions and that appeasing Tehran would not be possible without separating the nuclear priority, as a precondition, from the issues of precision missiles and Iran’s regional behavior in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and elsewhere.
For their part, Iran’s leaders have decided to postpone their retaliation for the assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, instructing its proxies to adopt ‘strategic patience’, based on their belief that the Biden administration will lift the sanctions and let flow the cash that will help Iran accomplish its regional project.
The fixation of the Biden team on the nuclear priority risks undermining the Trump administration’s entire policy of economic pressure designed to deter Tehran’s constant determination to engage in ‘malign’ regional behavior, even by the definition adopted by Biden’s team. Biden’s team however believe it would be possible to offset this policy by expanding the circle of participants in any new deal with Iran, to include Arab countries like Saudi Araba and the UAE, in addition to the original signatories to the JCPOA – the US, China, Russia, Britain, Germany, and France. In truth, this is an important and significant development that must be built upon to secure actual involvement by the Arab countries, which Tehran will surely resist. But if the Biden team is just pursuing a token Arab participation, then that his intentions may be dangerous.
Biden seems determined to meet the Iranian demands to return the US to the nuclear deal automatically, which would fully reverse everything the Trump team has achieved, regardless of any leverage this has created that could benefit the quest to renegotiate a deal based on the facts of 2021, rather than 2015. The Biden team’s rush to revive that deal, to settle the scores with Trump who tore it apart in 2018, leaves the Biden administration stuck in a vengeful mentality that is unwise when developing fateful policies, not just for the Middle East, but for US interests themselves.
In an interview conducted by Thomas Friedman with Joe Biden, the president-elect made clearer the features of his upcoming Iran policy, based on his commitment to returning to the nuclear agreement as a starting point for negotiations. In fact, this is literally the demand of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohamad Javad Zarif, who called for automatic return to the JCPOA without negotiations. The view of the Biden camp is that the two sides should automatically return to the nuclear agreement, followed by negotiations on Iran’s missile program and regional activities through its proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, including the manufacturing of outlawed precision rockets there.
President-elect Biden told Friedman: “Look, there’s a lot of talk about precision missiles and all range of other things that are destabilizing the region…[but] the best way to achieve getting some stability in the region [is to deal] with the nuclear program.” He also said that in case Tehran does not cooperate on the issues of missiles and regional behavior, his administration can resort to the sanctions snapback mechanism.
In other words, the president-elect does not see the issues of precision rockets and Iran’s regional behavior as a priority equal to that of the nuclear deal. On the other hand, it is clear that the nuclear issue, as important as it may be, is not the priority for the Arab countries affected directly by the enablement of the IRGC to implement Iran’s regional ‘malign’ policy. And herein lies the existential difference.
The Beirut Institute Summit in Abu Dhabi’s 25th e-policy circle (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5A8bODRM55M&t=135s) this week hosted Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Tom Fletcher, former UK ambassador to Beirut, Vance Serchuk, Executive Director of the KKR Global Institute, and Asli Aydintasbas, Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) focusing on Turkey.
Sadjadpour said there was no possibility of a grand bargain between the US and Iran, not because there was no US desire for it, but because “hostility towards the United States is a central part of its [the Iranian regime] identity”. Therefore, he continued, “continued conflict with the United States is far less of an existential threat to Iran than a rapprochement”. Sadjadpour added: “there's a common misperception about the sectarian conflicts in the Middle East…what's misunderstood is the huge asymmetric advantage Iran has over Sunni rivals, like Saudi Arabia, because of the fact that virtually all Shiite radicals are willing to go out and fight and kill for the Islamic republic of Iran, whereas virtually all Sunni radicals, like Al Qaeda and ISIS, want to overthrow the government of Saudi Arabia”.
Tom Fletcher, who serves currently Principal of the Hertford College at Oxford, said: “We cannot do a grand bargain regional deal with Iran, so better that we pick out one bit of it we might potentially be able to get done and then hopefully create the climate for the rest”. The problem with this thinking however, which is similar to the Biden team’s, is that this gradualism exposes the Arab region to existential threats.
Fletcher believes that the Biden administration “will focus on putting back the bits of it which they feel that easiest to fix, and the nuclear framework is…among a very difficult set of challenges, is easier than most”. However, Fletcher continued, delaying that second part cannot continue for long, “partly because America's regional allies will demand that they make much faster progress on those other issues…many of those who are currently coming back into the administration knew that by this stage they'd have to be dealing with Iran's wider behavior in Yemen, in Syria, and Lebanon and so on”.
Ultimately, the final say may not rest with the Biden team, which is willing to bet again on the logic of reforming a regime whose logic is based on expanding beyond Iran’s borders. No, the bigger challenge will come from Iran itself, specifically the IRGC, which sees Biden’s return to the nuclear deal and the lifting of the sanctions as a victory, especially as the windfall will help finance its policies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen and develop its precision rocket capabilities further. The automatic revival of the nuclear agreement coupled with lifting the sanctions will benefit the hardliners in Tehran not the moderates, contrary to the belief held by some.
For his part, Vance Serchuk said: “I think one of the consistent things that we've seen over the years is never underestimate the ability also of the Iranian government to potentially sabotage its own best options along the way,” adding: “The elections that they're going to be having next year…[will raise] a real question about how much flexibility, and creativity there's likely to be on the Iranian side irrespective of what the instincts and desires coming out of Washington are.”
In truth, the instincts of Iran’s leaders will not deviate from the dominant ideology of the regime, and the same can be said about Turkey’s leaders, embodied in Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Both believe expansionism is the best foundation of their countries’ national security. According to Asli Aydintasbas, Erdogan is convinced that restoring his country’s regional position requires “having a military footprint outside of its borders”. But she believes there is a need to scrutinize this logic for the sake of Turkey’s national interests, adding: “In other words, sealing off the Turkish border with jihadist groups is not necessarily going to make Turkey safer, it presumes a certain kind of Turkey but that's not the kind of turkey we've all subscribed to”. Rather, she believes power in this century will not be achieved through military adventures outside countries’ borders, but through things like innovation, for example in the field of vaccines that can tame pandemics. What is certain is that bringing back the countries hijacked by the likes of the expansionist-minded leaders of Iran and Turkey will not be a simple task, especially under US administrations scrambling out of fear of retaliation.

The nuclear fallout from the nuclear assassination - analysis
Will Iran now get dangerously close to a bomb?
Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/December 06/2020
The nuclear fallout could be as important as the recent nuclear assassination.
On the one hand, there has so far not been any major conventional military response by Iran to the assassination of its military nuclear program chief Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on November 27.
On the other hand, there is an internal war brewing between the Islamic Republic’s hardline-dominated parliament and its pragmatic president Hassan Rouhani over escalating the nuclear standoff itself.
Will the end result of killing Fakhrizadeh be that Tehran will move from its current three to fourth months from a nuclear bomb to being a dangerously close two months from one?
Last week, Iran’s parliament voted to obligate its atomic agency to do a number of things.
Three of them are actually potentially very important even in the near- to mid-term timelines:
1) enriching some uranium all the way up to the 20% level from the current 3-5% level
2) attaching and operating 1,000 IR-2m moderately advanced centrifuges, which are around four times faster than the more frequently used IR-1, and which is far more than the less than 200 currently attached IR-2ms, and
3) attaching and operating 1,000 highly advanced IR-6 centrifuges.
Iran has given the US two months to rejoin the nuclear deal before this push would happen; if positive progress is being made between the Biden administration and Iran, the aggressive moves may get put on ice.
But what if they go forward?
The Jerusalem Post spoke to two top experts on nuclear issues – Institute for Science and International Security president David Albright and former IAEA and current Stimson Center official Olli Heinonen – to get an estimate about how much closer these steps would get the ayatollahs to a nuclear bomb and whether the stated goals were realistic.
Though there are some differences of opinions, the consensus among the experts was that once Iran has enriched a certain amount of uranium to the 20% level, that could cut “an order of weeks” off the clock to getting a nuclear weapon – meaning supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei might be as little as two months from a bomb.
This means that the 20% issue is probably the most important one to watch in the near-term.
Some of this could also depend on how fast additional IR-2m’s are attached and begin to operate.
Iran’s parliamentary bill said it should be done within three months of a lack of progress with the nuclear deal. Since a lack of progress was defined as two months from now, the goal would be to have 1,000 IR-2m’s operating five months from now.
Albright and Heinonen both thought this was a realistic timeline.
In contrast, they were both more skeptical about the Islamic Republic’s ability to boost its set of 164 IR-6 centrifuges to 1,000 within one year.
Apparently, there are a number of scientific, supply and assembly issues which might make this a less realistic timeline.
This is crucial, because the IR-6 is far more advanced and, once a large number would be operational, could cut down the amount of time Tehran would need to break out to a nuclear bomb to even less than two months.
So for the next half year, Iran’s breakout time to a nuclear bomb will likely remain at between two and four months, even if it follows through on its threat.
Two months gets close to making it hard to give an ultimatum and for planning any kind of preemptive strike.
Also, the IR-2m’s that will be added are to be installed at a new underground facility at Natanz, which Israel might not be capable of striking on its own.
But the bigger question will be a year from now – or whenever Tehran can install 1,000 IR-6s.
This could truly be a breaking point at which the ayatollahs could produce enough nuclear material for a bomb at a speed that would be hard to detect in time to stop them.
The situation is fluid and there are currently many diplomatic, covert attack, cyberattack and open military attack options on the table.
Intelligence officials in Israel and the US are also in agreement that the death of Fakhrizadeh set back the Islamic Republic’s ability to manage its nuclear program, as did the July 2 explosion destroying Iran’s previous above-ground advanced centrifuge facility at Natanz.
Still, the ayatollahs have not given up their nuclear ambitions.
In six months or in about a year, it may turn out that the killing of Fakhrizadeh only delayed them.
In that case, Israel may yet have some fateful decisions to make if Biden’s diplomacy fails – and Jerusalem wants to prevent a nuclear Iran.
 

France Is Still Under Attack
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute./December 06/2020
"If nothing changes, in a few decades, France will have submitted to Islam, and Islamic violence will probably be even greater than today. It is already almost impossible for the country's leaders to react. They are hostages of a Muslim population that is less and less integrated and whose anger they do not want to arouse. They are under the gaze of groups that immediately denounce any criticism of Islam and under pressure from many countries in the Muslim world that France does not want to offend". — Alan Wagner, "L'Europe face à l'islam", interview on Tepa, August 2, 2020.
"For Muslims, Islamic law has God as its author. Any other legislator is illegitimate." — Mohammed Hocine Benkheira, historian, Le Point, March 21, 2016.
"Macron... is still not able to pinpoint the real problem because it would be politically incorrect for him to do so... This is the problem with someone like Macron and what he's saying... they can never acknowledge that what's happening is integral or a part of authentic Islam...." — Raymond Ibrahim, "Islamic Terror in France", SkyWatch TV, October 30, 2020.
"France still does not understand the reality it is facing. It believes that it has been struck by terrorists... but it is suffering a guerrilla war that is gradually gaining momentum..." — Algerian writer Boualem Sansal, lexpress.fr, October 18, 2020.
According Algerian writer Boualem Sansal, "France still does not understand the reality it is facing. It believes that it has been struck by terrorists... but it is suffering a guerrilla war that is gradually gaining momentum..."
October 29. Nice, the main city on the French Riviera. A man in the Basilica of Notre-Dame-de-l'Assomption decapitates a woman and murders two other people while shouting "Allahu Akbar!" ["Allah is the greatest!"]
This is the second beheading in France by an extremist Muslim in less than a month. Two weeks earlier, on October 16, a middle school teacher, Samuel Paty, was beheaded in the suburbs of Paris after showing his students some Mohammad cartoons during a discussion on freedom of speech.
Paty's beheading came after many other recent, seemingly jihadist-inspired murders in France. They include the protracted torture and murder of Ilan Halimi in 2006; the slaughter of a Jewish teacher and three children in Toulouse in 2012; the massacre of the staff of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in 2015 and the murder on the same day of four Jews at a kosher supermarket; the beheading of an entrepreneur, Herve Cornara, in his car in the suburbs of Lyon in 2015; a truck-ramming that killed 86 and wounded 458 people leaving a Bastille Day fireworks celebration in Nice on July 14, 2016; the murder a few days later, on July 26, of Father Jacques Hamel while he was conducting mass, and the murders of two elderly Jews, Sarah Halimi and Dr. Mireille Knoll, in 2017.
It is also the third extremist attack in France in less than two months. On September 26, shortly before Paty was killed, a Pakistani, Zaheer Hassan Mahmoud, assaulted and seriously injured two people in front of the former offices of Charlie Hebdo.
Countless attacks by young Muslims, often resulting in serious injuries, are committed daily throughout France -- according to police figures, approximately 120 times a day.
France seems to be the Western European country most affected by Islamic violence. Although the deadliest terrorist attacks have disappeared since the destruction of the Islamic State and the far-away bases from which they could easily be organized, they still occur, just on a smaller scale. They never stop.
The attitude of successive French governments every time a serious attack is carried out -- the less serious ones go unnoticed -- has been the same. The president and his ministers give speeches denouncing the danger and promising firmness; then nothing happens. On February 16, 2015, Prime Minister Manuel Valls actually instructed his countrymen that "the French should get used to living with the terrorist threat".
A few months after that, on November 14, 2015, an extremist massacre at the Bataclan Theater took place, in which 130 people were murdered and more than 360 wounded. A state of emergency was declared. For two years, soldiers were seen on the streets of France, but when the state of emergency did not prevent several more attacks from being committed -- including the assassination of Father Hamel, and the deadly July 14 truck-ramming in Nice -- the state of emergency, in view of its uselessness, was lifted two years after it was proclaimed.
President Emmanuel Macron, shortly after he was elected in May 2017, promised to do better than his predecessors and to act decisively. Three and a half years later, he seems largely to have failed.
Macron can see that French hostility towards Islam is growing. A poll conducted in October 2019 revealed that 61% of French people think "Islam is incompatible with the values of French society". He can also see also that an outspoken opponent of radicalism, Marine Le Pen, president of the National Rally party, is considered by many French people as more credible than he to ensure the security of the country and that she could possibly defeat him in the 2022 presidential election. He has apparently decided, therefore, to try to do more.
On October 2, he delivered a solemn speech denouncing what he calls "Islamic separatism" and promising to propose a law to fight against "Islamism". He was careful to insist that he was blaming Islamism -- which he defined as an "ideology", as distinct from Islam, which he referred to as "a religion in crisis."
The next day, the leading French Muslim associations published a statement presenting their constituents as the victims. "Muslims in France," they said, "are increasingly the target of the worst stigmatization and invective from political figures who make Islamophobia a business".
Anti-racist associations supported their statement. Dominique Sopo, president of SOS Racisme, said that Macron was sinking into "a political obsession with Islam". Malik Salemkour, president of the League for Human Rights, accused Macron of taking up "the speeches of the extreme right and pointing the finger at innocent culprits, fundamentalist Muslims".
The leaders of several Muslim countries called for a boycott of French products. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan questioned Macron's "mental health". The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation did not name Macron, but "deplored the remarks of some French officials that could harm Franco-Muslim relations".
To calm the situation, Macron sent French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian to Egypt to meet with Ahmed al-Tayeb, the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar University, Egypt's highest Muslim authority, After their discussion on November 9, Le Drian announced, "I have emphasized, and emphasize here, the deep respect we have for Islam."
Macron, responding to an article in the Financial Times accusing him of "dividing France further," wrote that he did not in any way want to "stigmatize Muslims," and that he had spoken of "Islamist separatism," not of "Islamic separatism". He stated that that France was "confronted by hundreds of radicalized individuals, who we fear may, at any moment, take a knife and kill people.... This," he noted, "is what France is fighting against -- designs of hatred and death that threaten its children -- never against Islam".
Since then, Macron has been even more cautious.
On the evening of Paty's beheading on October 16, Macron said that the murder had been an "Islamist terrorist attack" and denounced "obscurantism and violence". He later said that the murderer seemed to have been driven by "the fatal conspiracy of stupidity, lies, amalgamation, hatred of the other".
Just two weeks later, however, after the knife murder of three people in Nice on October 28, Macron simply asked "people of all religions to unite and not give in to the spirit of division".
The notion of Islamist separatism used by Macron does not really make a lot of sense. He criticized what he calls Islamist separatism for "claiming that its own laws are superior to those of the Republic". As the historian Mohammed Hocine Benkheira puts it, explains:
"For Muslims, Islamic law has God as its author. Any other legislator is illegitimate. When people live under laws other than this one, not only do they sin if they accept this state of affairs, but they also live under the reign of injustice and oppression. It is therefore that Islam itself that places its laws above the laws of any government."
"Islam," the author Celine Pina pointed out, "does not ask Muslims to separate, but to conquer".
"If neighborhoods have become Muslim neighborhoods, it is not because the Muslims who live there have decided to separate, but because the non-Muslims have fled from them", noted Christophe Guilluy, another author. Most non-Muslims, it seems, do not want to live in areas where the law of Islam reigns and where unveiled women are sometimes harassed or assaulted.
The idea that Islamism is an ideology distinct from Islam is, unfortunately, totally meaningless. As Erdogan, regarding the term "moderate Islam," noted in August 2007, "These descriptions are very ugly. It is offensive and an insult to our religion. There is no moderate or immoderate Islam. Islam is Islam and that's it." Such false distinctions, according to the British author Douglas Murray in his book , Islamophilia, are usually "used by political leaders who fear offending Muslim populations".
For Islamic organizations, anti-racist organizations, and various countries of the Muslim world, however, speaking of "Islamist separatism" or "Islamism" in France, or promising to fight against "Islamism", or saying that Islam is in crisis, is evidently a bridge too far.
The law Macron promised has been presented to the French National Assembly and is to be voted on this month. The text shows that Macron's law will not, after all, be against "Islamic separatism", but only a "law upholding republican principles". The main aim of the law, it seems, is to "combat online hate" -- which is not defined in the text. The law will not, therefore, allow anyone to "combat" anything that judges or associations might define as hate.
The new law seems aligned with another, defined as a "law to fight against hateful content on the Internet". Passed on June 24, it, too, fails to define "hateful content on the Internet."
The new law will, however, ban home schooling. As Muslim parents are not the only ones who practice it in France, the ruling will consequently affect thousands of non-Muslim families as well.
In a message Macron addressed to the CFCM, Conseil Français du Culte Musulman (French Council of Muslim Worship), an organization created in 2003 to represent the various French Muslim associations, Macron asked its President, Mohamed Moussaoui, and the various Muslim associations belonging to the CFCM, to sign a "charter of republican values". These defined Islam in France as "a religion and not a political movement," and prohibited "foreign interference" in French Islam. Although Moussaoui and the Muslim associations belonging to the CFCM immediately signed the proposal, no one is expecting their consent to mean that they are planning to change their practices. Islam has always and everywhere, for fourteen centuries, been more than a religion; it is an entire spiritual, political and legal system, and will continue to be what it is -- "Islam is Islam" -- and the French President will not be able to change that either. Islam knows no borders and no differences between countries. Muslims belong to the ummah [nation of believers] and that is a situation the French President will not be able to change, either.
The man who stabbed three people to death in Nice on October 29; the murderer of Samuel Paty; the knife-wielding assailant of two people in front of the former offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo on September 25 and other assailants, all benefited from refugee status. Macron, however, does not seem interested in considering any legislative decisions aimed at examining the files of persons benefiting from that status in France.
For now, France continues to receive approximately 400,000 immigrants a year, most of whom come from the Muslim world. Macron also does not seem interested in considering any measures that might limit immigration to France.
Meanwhile, the proportion of Muslims in the French population continues to grow. Today, Muslims represent 10% of the population; estimates indicate that this figure will double by 2050. At the same time, the number of Muslims living in France who place Shari'ah above the laws of the republic also continues to grow. Currently, 57% of Muslims under the age of 25 say they would prefer to obey Shari'ah rather than the laws of the French republic should they contradict Shari'ah. Previously, in 2016, people holding those views made up only 47%.
Referring to the Mohammed cartoons reprinted by Charlie Hebdo, Macron said that France will not change the laws that guarantee freedom of expression and that he is in a "fight for our freedoms". Even so, he overlooked that in France, freedom of expression is already extremely restricted, especially when it comes to Islam; the cartoons published by Charlie Hebdo were an exception. A law passed in 1972 long ago condemned "incitement to discrimination, hatred, or violence against a person or group of persons on account of their origin or their belonging to a particular ethnic group, nation, race, or religion". This law is still increasingly used to condemn speech regarded by some as "Islamophobic".
The journalist Éric Zemmour has been condemned several times for having made politically incorrect remarks about Muslim immigration and for pointing out that Islam has a history of bloodshed and war. Zemmour was also recently fined 10,000 euros for "incitement to hatred" after a speech he gave on September 28, 2019. What he had said was that Muslims living in France are becoming less and less integrated, that entire neighborhoods are becoming "budding Islamic republics" and that France is undergoing a process of Islamic "colonization".
The association Riposte Laïque (Secular Response), created to combat the Islamization of France, is constantly under attack in court. Its president, Pierre Cassen, has been condemned again and again for stating, accurately, that all the terrorist attacks that have marked France in the last two decades were committed by Muslims, and that Islam, throughout its history, has fundamentally been violent and bloody. In 2018, Cassen was sentenced to a three-month suspended sentence; if he is sentenced again, for "Islamophobic" speech, even if what he says is factually correct, he will spend at least a month in prison. Criticizing uncontrolled immigration to France and its consequences could be enough to earn him jail time.
Renaud Camus, the author of the book Le grand remplacement ("The Great Replacement") -- which describes the slow replacement of the French population by a Muslim population -- was sentenced in January 2020 to a two-month suspended sentence for having said that "immigration has become invasion".
At a ceremony in honor of Paty, Macron paid tribute to teachers. He noted that they bring knowledge, and promised that he would give back "to them the power of the place and the authority that belongs to them. We will consider them as they should be, we will support them, we will protect them as much as necessary".
The reality is that most teachers in France can no longer bring real knowledge to anyone. They would find themselves in danger or out of work. Twenty teachers recently published an article in which they spoke of "students running in the corridors of schools screaming Allahu akbar", "students who threaten teachers [and] humiliate them in front of their class" and who state that "there are no measures to effectively ensure the safety of teachers."
As far back as 2002, the historian Georges Bensoussan noted in the book Les territoires perdus de la République ("The Lost Territories of the Republic") that it had become impossible in the high schools of France's Muslim neighborhoods to talk about the Holocaust and certain other subjects. He added that teachers had to censor themselves or risk their lives. Fifteen years later, in the book Une France soumise ("A Submissive France"), he reported that the situation had worsened considerably. By 2017, the self-censorship that teachers had to impose on themselves was present throughout the country. The horrendous fate of Paty shows what can happen to a teacher who decides not to self-censor.
The extremist Muslim attack on a Jewish school in Toulouse in 2012 cost the life of a teacher, Jonathan Sandler, and three children -- Sandler's two sons and Myriam Monsonego -- who perhaps had been inadequately protected. Although it was the first time that a teacher and children were murdered in a school in France, it was, not the first time here that Jews have been victims of Islamic anti-Semitism. The French government continues to remain disingenuously blind to Islamic anti-Semitism.
"There are strong tendencies at work in France," Alain Wagner, an expert on Islam, remarked.
"If nothing changes, in a few decades, France will have submitted to Islam, and Islamic violence will probably be even greater than today. It is already almost impossible for the country's leaders to react. They are hostages of a Muslim population that is less and less integrated and whose anger they do not want to arouse. They are under the gaze of groups that immediately denounce any criticism of Islam and under pressure from many countries in the Muslim world that France does not want to offend".
"Macron", noted the American writer Raymond Ibrahim in October, "is still not able to pinpoint the real problem because it would be politically incorrect for him to do so... This is the problem with someone like Macron and what he's saying... they can never acknowledge that what's happening is integral or a part of authentic Islam...."
"France still does not understand the reality it is facing," said the Algerian writer Boualem Sansal. "It believes that it has been struck by terrorists... but it is suffering a guerrilla war that is gradually gaining momentum..."
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27 books on France and Europe.
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Major power rivalry in the Black Sea
Luke Coffey/Arab News/December 06/ 2020
The Black Sea sits at an important junction between Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The region is home to important energy and transit routes. Oil and gas pipelines, as well as fiber-optic cables, run along the bottom of the sea, while on the surface hundreds of ships crisscross it daily, moving people and goods. The Black Sea region also serves as one of the geopolitical fault-lines in the competition between great powers such as Russia, the US and the Europeans. Each has competing economic and security interests at stake.
For the US, the Black Sea’s strategic importance is derived primarily from the fact that Washington has treaty obligations under NATO with Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania. Meanwhile, Russia depends on the region for energy, trade, security and economic reasons. For Russia, its domination of the region has always been considered a matter of national survival.
The Black Sea will remain an important region for the great power competition for the foreseeable future.
For Europe, the Black Sea is an important region for a variety of reasons, from economics and security to energy and transportation. Hundreds of kilometers of pipelines and fiber-optic cables crisscross the bed of the Black Sea. Major European ports are an important source of economic activity in the region. The largest port in the Black Sea, Constanta, is in the EU member state Romania.
Even for a region like the Middle East, hundreds of kilometers away, the Black Sea is important. For example, Russia uses its military presence in the Black Sea to project power in places like Syria. The US and Europeans plan to invest billions of dollars in new infrastructure projects to improve connectivity in the region through an investment fund that offers investment opportunities for government and private investors.
The Black Sea will remain an important region for the great power competition for the foreseeable future. As the incoming Biden administration seeks to craft its European, Russia and NATO policies, the Black Sea will play a central role. Due to its importance to the US and Europe, it is likely that in the near term Russia will keep the region simmering. Policymakers in the Middle East must not ignore the Black Sea either. Ultimately, if the Black Sea is safe, secure and prosperous, the broader region will be, too.
*Luke Coffey is director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation. Twitter: @LukeDCoffey
This is the executive summary of Luke Coffey's research paper for Arab News Research & Studies. To read and download the full report, click here.

How an eastern Med incident played into Turkey’s hands
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/December 06/ 2020
A Turkish container ship was last month stopped and searched in the eastern Mediterranean by a German frigate under the command of EU Naval Force Mediterranean Operation Irini. There are several discrepancies between the Turkish and EU versions of how the exercise unfolded.
The first discrepancy relates to the permission that had to be obtained for the search to go ahead. The EU claimed it was carried out according to UN Security Council Resolution 2292. However, this resolution provides that “good-faith efforts” must first be made to “obtain the consent of the vessel’s flag State prior to any inspections.”To justify its action, the EU said it informed the Turkish authorities that an inspection would be carried out on the ship. However, 16 minutes before the expiry of an extended deadline it had been given, Turkey formally issued a notification of its refusal to grant the requested permission. Despite this, Germany claimed that the deadline had passed and that, according to standard practice, it considered this delay as implicit permission. Using this feeble justification, Germany sent soldiers to board the ship and carried out the inspection.
The second discrepancy concerns the time the German soldiers spent on board the ship. A statement by an Operation Irini spokesman said: “Having received no answer from Turkey after the elapsed time, Operation Irini boarded the vessel and inspected it in accordance with internationally agreed procedures… The inspection was suspended later on, when Turkey formally and with delay notified Operation Irini of its refusal to grant the permission to inspect the vessel.”
This information contrasts greatly with that provided by the Turkish authorities, which stated that German soldiers boarded the ship 16 minutes after Turkey had communicated to the Operation Irini headquarters in Rome its formal refusal to grant permission. They continued with the inspection anyway, forcing the crew to open containers until late into the night. No illicit cargo was found. Pictures of the inspection subsequently flooded social media in Turkey, showing the crew being herded by German soldiers with their hands on their heads.
This incident caused several conspiracy theories to spread in Turkey. One of them points the finger at Greece.
The third discrepancy is about the consent that Operation Irini had to obtain from Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) before carrying out the search. Resolution 2292 provides that such operations have to be carried out “with appropriate consultations with the GNA.” However, the Tripoli government in April objected to the EU operation, saying that it has an agreement with the Turkish government for the supply of arms to Libya and that its implementation should not be blocked. So the way last month’s operation was carried out was in violation of the UN resolution.
The fourth discrepancy was about the justification for the search. The UN resolution provides that, to justify the inspection of a cargo ship, there should be “reasonable grounds to believe (it is) carrying arms or related materiel to or from Libya.” The outcome of the inspection proves that the EU’s presumption was not justified, and therefore the EU owes Turkey an explanation as to what the “reasonable grounds” were that led it to presume that the ship was carrying an illegal cargo.
This incident caused several conspiracy theories to spread in Turkey. One of them points the finger at Greece. The frigate had a German flag, but the captain was rumored to be a Greek and the man in charge of the operation was an Italian admiral. This intricate command structure must have further complicated the operation. Although the captain would have carried out the orders he received from the Italian commander, the Turkish public was quick to insist that Greece must have played a role in attempting to tarnish Turkey’s image.
Another ironic conspiracy theory is that Turkish agents might have given a false alarm that the ship was carrying weapons, thus misleading the Operation Irini headquarters into making an unsubstantiated decision.
Whatever the real motives, the operation victimized Turkey — a situation that will exacerbate divisions ahead of this week’s EU summit.
Despite the claims and counterclaims, there has been no irreparable damage caused to either side. The most reasonable path would, therefore, be for Turkey and the EU to bring to light all aspects of the operation and conclude the controversy with a civilized handshake and by paying compensation if warranted.
*Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar

Why Europe must fill regional void left by US
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/December 06/ 2020
When Ursula von der Leyen took over as head of the European Commission last year, she called for the organization to play a greater role in geopolitics. A year later, this idea has proved to be a much-needed step that can greatly contribute to providing stability in a turbulent Middle East. Though Europe is relieved at the election of Joe Biden, who seems more committed to a multilateral approach, the US president-elect does not differ much from Trump in his desire to pursue retrenchment from the region. Therefore, Europe needs to step up its efforts to fill the role played by the US.
The turbulence the region is witnessing started with the Arab uprisings, which triggered the collapse of authoritarian regimes that had plunged the region into decades of stagnation. These shallow and centralized regimes did not leave behind strong institutions that could serve the average citizen or prevent states from unraveling. This created threat and an opportunity for influence for the regional powers. The chaos increased the sense of insecurity of different regimes in the Middle East. Each regime started looking beyond its borders in order to secure its own survival.
In 2013, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood plotted to take power in the UAE. This marked a turning point in Emirati foreign policy and a shift from the late Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al-Nahyan’s philosophy of focusing on building friendly relations and on humanitarian aid. The UAE reversed its traditional foreign policy course by adopting a more assertive attitude that was aimed at shaping the regional landscape, driven largely by an anti-Brotherhood perspective.
Meanwhile, the failed 2016 coup d’etat in Turkey put President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the defensive, which translated into an offensive and interventionist foreign policy. Chaos in the region also allowed Iran to spread its tentacles everywhere. American retrenchment exacerbated the problem, as the US was the de facto offshore balancer in the region. The prime example of this was the first Gulf War, when US intervention prevented Saddam Hussein from destabilizing the existing regional system.
The American retrenchment started with Barack Obama’s premature withdrawal from Iraq and was shaped by a general isolationist public mood that came as a reaction to George W. Bush’s wars. The US disengagement reinforced the feeling that each state needs to fend for itself in a dangerous regional environment. States with similar perceived threats coalesced and formed alliances. The competition between the Turkey-Qatar-Iran and UAE-Saudi Arabia axes is directly affecting local conflicts and regional security and stability.
It is in Europe’s interest to make sure its neighborhood is stable, safe, prosperous, and can accommodate its inhabitants.
Europe, on the other hand, has been adopting a soft power policy toward the region based on economic cooperation and aid. However, such a policy needs to be revised and replaced with a more assertive policy, as troubles in the region are having a huge spillover effect on Europe. The flow of migrants resulting from the Syrian crisis led to social problems, while the rise of Daesh in Syria and Iraq gave an impetus to homegrown terrorism in Europe. These two factors fueled the rise of far-right parties, and in Poland and Hungary they are at the helm of government.
The rise of ultra-nationalist movements presents a severe problem for the EU. The 70-year European integration project, which has gathered countries under a cooperation framework and generated peace and prosperity after two devastating wars, risks unraveling because of the spillover of problems from our region. It is in Europe’s interest to make sure its neighborhood is stable, safe and prosperous and can accommodate its inhabitants — hence Europe is the most eligible actor to fill the void left by the US. It is already starting to become more proactive, such as with Germany’s leading role in trying to reconcile the warring Libyan factions.
Today, Europe realizes that stability in the region means stability at home. However, it should have a forceful policy. It can no longer afford to appease corrupt regimes and let the money flow without any accountability. It needs to be firm in forcing change. For years, Europe has tolerated mediocrity for the sake of stability. Now it realizes that this policy is no longer sustainable and that appeasing corrupt regime does not guarantee stability.
Europe should also no longer allow others to blackmail it. A prime example of this came in 2018, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s discussions with the Lebanese government on the issue of refugees. Instead of discussing with Germany how to accommodate refugees and help host communities in order to avoid creating tensions between the two, the Lebanese government used refugees as a negotiating card to extort funding from the EU.
By now, Europe should realize it needs to take bold steps, as cosmetic operations do not provide solutions. Europe should no longer accept this sort of treatment from leaders in the region. It should put all its weight behind forcing reforms on corrupt systems — reforms that will render those countries functional and livable. It might be a big ask of the European Commission, especially as it represents a consortium of countries and its decision-making requires a consensus that is sometimes hard to achieve, but Europe needs to find a formula through which it can have a more active role in Middle Eastern geopolitics. In the current circumstances, European engagement is no longer a matter of choice; it is a matter of necessity.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese NGO focused on Track II. She is also an affiliate scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.

If Iran doesn’t want to get burnt, stop stoking the flames
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/December 06/ 2020
بارعة علم الدين/أرب نيوز: إذا كانت إيران لا تريد أن تحترف فلتتوقف عن إذكاء النيران

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Iran’s proxies launched missile strikes against Jeddah and other parts of the Arabian Peninsula, while continuing to stoke the conflict in Yemen.
Tehran has accumulated 12 times the amount of enriched uranium permitted under the 2015 deal, with the IAEA warning that Iran is preparing to install hundreds of new advanced centrifuges.
Iran’s parliament and Guardian Council have passed a bill to accelerate production of higher-enriched uranium, and banning IAEA inspections.
Following the assassination of a nuclear scientist, Iranian officials have been threatening retaliation against Western, GCC and regional targets.
Iran’s proxies are blocking government formation in Lebanon, while stockpiling rocket arsenals in Syria and Iraq, and boasting of their ability to launch strikes throughout the region.
NATO has revealed that Iran continues to smuggle weapons to terrorist entities in Bahrain.
We are told that Tehran wants to avoid provoking all-out conflict in the six weeks before Donald Trump leaves office, but Iran is so heavily invested in its war-making activities on so many fronts that it appears to have lost all perspective of how provocative its default regional posture is. The regime claims it wants peace, while firing rockets at Jeddah; it is innately incapable of responsible behavior.
On both sides of the Lebanese border, all forces are mobilized for all circumstances if their leaderships order them to strike. Iran’s proxies in many states are ready to act in unison when called upon. This is a terrifyingly dangerous situation. The slightest miscalculation could plunge us into war. As one veteran Western diplomat told me: “When we are dealing with mad people in all directions, we must be ready for anything.”
Iran’s defiance of the entire world has brought it to the brink of bankruptcy and humiliation, even among Shiite populations throughout the region who have come to regard Tehran as an interfering menace.
Hassan Nasrallah warns that “the axis of resistance should be in a state of high readiness to respond twice as hard in case of any American or Israeli folly.” As the Hezbollah leader belligerently provokes Armageddon, there are rumors he’s already hiding out in Iran, knowing himself to be Israel’s No. 1 target, and aware that when he finally succeeds in provoking Israel, Iran’s proxies and the civilian populations around them would be annihilated. Amid swirling reports about plots and assassination threats in Beirut, the British Embassy is evacuating families of diplomats and the US has removed half its staff in Baghdad in anticipation of threats.
Paradoxically, indications that the Biden administration could countenance a return to the 2015 nuclear deal could be a further destabilizing factor. Israel and the GCC states certainly don’t want a nuclear Iran, but Biden should acknowledge that signing a deal that doesn’t address Iran’s missile threat or its transnational paramilitary armies will only embolden Tehran and award it with billions of dollars more resources with which to wage regional warfare — particularly as key provisions limiting Iran’s enrichment activities expire around the end of Biden’s first presidential term.
With Trump discussing the targeting of Iranian nuclear sites, Netanyahu knows he will never again have as favorable circumstances for “bold” action than the final weeks of the slavishly pro-Israel Trump administration. Facing new elections and perhaps jail, could Netanyahu reinvent himself as a wartime leader as a final desperate throw of the dice? There are many occasions when I sincerely hope to be proved wrong.
Should we take Iran’s threats of retaliation for the killing of Mohzen Fakhrizadeh seriously? Iran threatened a “devastating response” to the killing of Imad Mughniyah. It threatened to hit back after previous strikes against nuclear scientists and military targets. We were promised that the world would tremble at the response to the killing of Qassim Soleimani. Is Iran the dog that barks and barks and barks, but is too cowardly to bite?
The Revolutionary Guards have become a domestic laughing stock after ludicrous claims that the attack on its scientist was conducted by remote control, even though eyewitnesses reported a gunfight involving possibly 10 assassins. The internet in Iran has been flooded with mocking memes about killer robots and psychotic Tesla self-drive cars. Iran’s defiance of the entire world has brought it to the brink of bankruptcy and humiliation, even among Shiite populations throughout the region who have come to regard Tehran as an interfering menace.
A phone recording has emerged in which a Kata’ib Hezbollah leader threatened a senior Iraqi army commander that he would cut of his hand if the army acted to implement the law and remove paramilitary banners for militias that are supposed to be integrated into the armed forces. Iran’s proxies see themselves as bigger than the Iraqi and Lebanese states, and outside of their laws.
In Israel, the West and the GCC, many political constituencies vocally argue that the only way to neutralize the Iranian threat is through decisive military action. Whether or not they are correct, this is manifestly an existential problem for Tehran, which — if it wants to avoid signing its own death warrant — must take urgent action to head off the prospects of such a strike.
In the fable, Leila falsely claims that the wolf is coming to eat her. Finally, everybody ignores her cries when the wolf arrives and devours her. After decades of Hezbollah and the ayatollahs saber-rattling about war with Israel, will we wake one morning to discover that Israel’s war machine has already devoured its prey?
There have recently been impressive efforts to make peace between neighboring states in the region, with a renewed focus on solving decades-old problems and prioritizing peace and development. Such moves leave Hezbollah and Iran more isolated than ever.
If the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and others are willing to countenance peace, is it not time for Tehran to recognize that the best means of defending itself is by not perpetually provoking conflict?
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Pragmatist Biden will be dealing with ideologues in Irans
Raghida Dergham/The National/December 06/2020
US President-elect Joe Biden has decided to defuse tensions with Iran and climb down from his predecessor Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against the regime. He has done so, believing that appeasing Tehran would be impossible without – at the very beginning – separating its nuclear weapons programme from the other thorny issues, including its ballistic missiles project and its expansionist agenda across the Middle East.
Speaking to The New York Times, Mr Biden made clear the features of his Iran policy, which would essentially be based on a commitment to returning to the 2015 nuclear agreement – signed under the Obama administration and later rejected by the Trump administration – as a “starting point” for negotiations. Curiously, that is also the demand of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohamad Javad Zarif. The view of the Biden camp is that once the two sides automatically return to the nuclear agreement, they can talk about the other issues.
“There’s a lot of talk about precision missiles and a whole range of other things that are destabilising the region,” Mr Biden said, “[but] the best way to getting some stability in the region [is to deal] with the nuclear programme.” He added that if Tehran failed to co-operate on the other issues, his administration could consider resorting to a snapback of sanctions.
The Biden team has previously talked about expanding the circle of participants in the nuclear talks to include major Arab countries as well (the 2015 nuclear deal only involved the US, China, Russia, Britain, Germany and France). If this were indeed to happen, it would be a significant development – so long as the incoming administration doesn’t settle for some kind of token Arab participation.
Mr Biden’s strategy may have some short-term benefits. Iran’s leaders, for instance, appear to have postponed plans to retaliate against the assassination of one of their top nuclear scientists, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, late last month in Tehran. They have instructed Iranian proxies across the region to adopt a policy of strategic patience. Nobody has claimed the killing of Fakhrizadeh, although the regime has alleged Israel’s involvement, with, perhaps, the blessing of the Trump administration. In any case, Tehran will probably wait for the incoming administration to lift sanctions against it, in exchange for returning to the 2015 deal, thereby being able to fund their expansionist projects with the cash now available to them.
Mr Biden clearly knows Iran’s irresponsible actions, for he has himself characterised its influence in the region as “malign”. But whether his gradualist approach is an outcome of domestic politics or not, the problem with that is it greatly undermines Mr Trump’s maximalist strategy that has set the regime back like never before in its history.
Apart from rolling back some of the gains made by the current administration and reducing the leverage America currently has over Iran, the Biden team must also remember that it will be dealing with a regime that is ideologically driven like few others around the world.
Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told me that there is little possibility of a “grand bargain” between the US and Iran. This is not due to a lack of American desire to push for it, but because hostility towards the US increases the Iranian regime’s credibility in the eyes of its supporters. “Continued conflict with the United States is far less of an existential threat to Iran than a rapprochement,” Mr Sadjadpour pointed out.
Tom Fletcher, who currently serves as the principal of Hertford College at Oxford University, also ruled out the possibility of a grand bargain – although he said that could actually work in America’s favour. “It’s better that we pick out one [issue] that we might potentially be able to get done and then hopefully create the climate for the rest,” he said, essentially echoing Mr Biden’s strategy.
However, Mr Fletcher did agree that delaying talks on the other sticking points would be counter-productive “partly because America’s regional allies will demand that they make much faster progress on those other issues”.
Ultimately, though, the final say may not rest with a Biden administration but with the Iranian regime, especially its hardline faction led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In truth, the instincts of Iran’s leaders will be to not deviate from the dominant ideology of the regime since its establishment more than four decades ago.
And if the Biden team hopes it can help reform the regime, it will be disappointed. The reason is simple: Iran is a country that has essentially been hijacked by a group of expansionist-minded ideologues who are supported by, as Mr Sadjadpour described them, “radicals willing to go out and fight and kill for the Islamic Republic of Iran”.
*Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National