LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 07/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Christ set us free; so stand firm and do not submit again to the yoke of slavery
Letter to the Galatians 05/01-06/:”Brothers and sisters: For freedom Christ set us free; so stand firm and do not submit again to the yoke of slavery. It is I, Paul, who am telling you that if you have yourselves circumcised, Christ will be of no benefit to you. Once again I declare to every man who has himself circumcised that he is bound to observe the entire law. You are separated from Christ, you who are trying to be justified by law; you have fallen from grace. For through the Spirit, by faith, we await the hope of righteousness. For in Christ Jesus, neither circumcision nor uncircumcision counts for anything, but only faith working through love.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 06-07/2019
Paris to Hold Lebanon Support Meeting on Wednesday
Report: Street Protests Expected Sunday ahead of Consultations to Name PM
Aoun meets delegation of international financial and investment institutions, says cabinet formation will help implementation of CEDRE
Aoun Says Govt. Formation Helps Unlock CEDRE Funds
Report: Parties Putting the ‘Finishing Touches’ on Form of Govt.
Mashnouq to Boycott Consultations, Hajjar Says Mustaqbal to Vote for Khatib
Wahhab Says PM Candidates 'May Change before Monday
Khatib in 'Very Good Health', His Office Says
Bassil Warns Europe against 'Chaos' in Lebanon
Bassil from Rome: I ask of you to help Lebanon cast off those who interfere in its affairs
Rome 2019 MED Dialogues: UfM steps up regional action to tackle water scarcity
Al-Rahi: Embassies Facilitating Emigration to Empty Lebanon of Its People, Christians
Over 60 Companies Notify Ministry of Plans to Lay Off Employees
Paris to Convene Lebanon Support Meeting as Hariri Requests Aid for Imports
Lebanon: Depositors Highly Anxious Due to Banks’ Recent Measures
Lebanon appeals for import aid; France to hold meetin
Lebanon caretaker PM Hariri sends aid appeal to ‘friendly’ states before meeting

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 06-07/2019
UN: Iranian Forces ‘Shooting to Kill’ Protesters, At Least 7,000 Held
Facebook closes Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei’s page
Washington blacklists Iran-backed Iraqi militia leaders over protests
US State Department publishes photos of seized Iranian missiles
Europeans, Iran to cross swords at nuclear talks
Trump denies US weighing sending more troops to Mideast
Iran ‘meddling’ a ‘huge violation of Iraqi sovereignty’: US
Iraq's Sistani Says New PM Must Be Chosen Without Foreign Interference
Lisbon Trip Offers Netanyahu Brief Escape From Drama
Saudi Military Student Kills Three at U.S. Navy Base

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 06-07/2019
Lebanon’s Crisis Hits Syrian Refugees Hard/Paula Astih/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 06/2019
Lebanese demonstrators continue protesting political and economic situations/Joanne Serrieh, Al Arabiyah English/December 06/2019
Lebanon appeals for aid to pay for imports of essential goods/Jazeera//December 07, 2019
Lebanese lawmakers to defy naming of new PM/Najia Houssari/Arab News/December 07/2019
Saad Hariri requests aid to secure Lebanon's food imports/Sunniva Rose/The National/December 06/2019
Analysis/Hezbollah Commandos Are Back on Israel's Border, and They're Armed With the Element of Surprise/Amos Harel and Yaniv Kubovich/Haaretz/December 06/2019
Israeli military says Hezbollah undeterred despite recent setbacks/Associated Press/Ynetnews/December 06/2019
*How the Israel-Iran war might begin/Yaakov Katz/Jerusalem Post/December 06/2019
The Mullahs’ Losing Game/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 06/2019
Germany’s Political Crisis Will Unfold in Slow Motion/Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/December 06/2019
A European Army? It’ll Never Happen/Andreas Kluth/Bloomberg/December 06/2019
Bread and Personal Freedoms/Amel Moussa/Asharq Al Awsat/December 06/2019
Iran Is Losing Iraq’s Tribes/Phillip Smyth/The Washington Institute/December 06/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 06-07/2019
Paris to Hold Lebanon Support Meeting on Wednesday
Naharnet/December 06/2019
France intends to hold a Paris meeting Wednesday for the International Support Group for Lebanon to help the country cope with its dire economic crisis, media reports said. A European official confirmed that invitations to the meeting have been sent out. A Lebanese official meanwhile said that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to be invited to the meeting. President Michel Aoun is scheduled to hold binding consultations with parliamentary blocs on Monday with the aim of naming a new premier. Saad Hariri had tendered his government’s resignation on October 29, bowing to pressure from unprecedented street protests against corruption and economic hardships.

Report: Street Protests Expected Sunday ahead of Consultations to Name PM
Naharnet/December 06/2019
Despite reports that political parties have neared a consensus on supporting Samir Khatib for the post of PM-designate, “cautious anticipation” prevails as protests gear for mass rallies against that nomination Sunday, one day before the binding consultations. President Michel Aoun is expected to initiate the binding parliamentary consultations to name a premier on Monday, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday. Ministerial sources told the daily that no activity or contacts between political parties was recorded on Thursday regarding the formation of the government. “Scheduling the consultations for Monday instead of holding them earlier, Thursday or Friday, remains a shady issue,” said the sources. Despite “positives” on the course of government formation, ministerial sources fear that the time span extending until Monday is open to unexpected negatives, that would complicate matters further if it were to happen. Activists have called for a massive protest on Sunday ahead of consultations to protest the nomination of Khatib. The Presidency on Wednesday announced that the binding parliamentary consultations to name a PM-designate will be held on Monday. Saad Hariri had tendered his government’s resignation on October 29, bowing to pressure from massive and unprecedented popular protests that erupted on October 17. Aoun refrained from calling for immediate consultations to name a replacement, arguing that prior consensus was needed on the shape of the new government amid the extraordinary situations in the country. Protesters had demanded the formation of an independent technocrat government but media reports have said that the ruling political forces have agreed to form a techno-political cabinet led by prominent contractor Samir Khatib.

Aoun meets delegation of international financial and investment institutions, says cabinet formation will help implementation of CEDRE
NNA/December 06/2019
President Michel Aoun on Friday reassured a delegation of British financial and investment institutions and US Morgan Stanley Bank, headed by Ralph Raheb, that addressing the economic and financial conditions will be a priority of the new Government, once formed. The President pointed out that "The previous Government had achieved an economic vision within the plan to promote the Lebanese economy, and convert it from rentier to productive". "The Process of oil and gas exploration will begin this January, which will put Lebanon among oil and gas producing countries, at the start of extraction operations" President Aoun said. President Aoun told the delegation that binding Parliamentary consultations will be held next Monday, followed by the formation of the new Government. "This will help the friends of Lebanon to complete the course of the "Cedar" Conference, and launch the developmental projects decided upon" the President added. The President also explained the financial and monetary measures adopted at the last financial meeting, held in Baabda Palace, stressing that "These are temporary measures imposed by the current financial conditions in the country". The delegation included officials from: Morgan Stanley, CEE, Lazard, Willington, Alliance Bernstein, Blue Crest, Eaton Vance and BFAM. President Aoun then received the President of the Antonine University, Father Michel Galkh, accompanied by a delegation from the University, including: Secretary General, Father Tawfiq Maatouk, Executive Vice President, Dr. Pascal Lahoud, Dean of the Faculty of Administration, Dr. Elie Assaf, and Director of the Alumni Office, Father Charbel Ghanem. The delegation discussed the educational situation in general and the university's education in particular, in addition to the repercussions which occurred as a result of the ongoing developments, since last October. During the meeting, Father Galkh issued an invitation to President Aoun to attend the Christmas campaign, held annually at the university. The President also received today former MP, Hassan Yaacoub, and discussed with him the current situation in the country. The President of the Republic also met Mr. Naji Khoury, Coordinator of "Dialogue and Bridges" Group.--Presidency Press Office

Aoun Says Govt. Formation Helps Unlock CEDRE Funds
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 06/2019
President Michel Aoun on Friday said that the stern financial measures taken in the country are "temporary because of the current financial conditions." Aoun, who spoke during a meeting with international investment bankers, said that dealing with the economic and financial crisis will be the priority of the new government once it's formed. He added that offshore exploration for oil and gas will begin in January and would boost the country's credentials. Aoun has called for binding consultations with heads of parliamentary blocs to name a new prime minister on Monday. He added that the formation of a new Cabinet would help friendly countries release $11 billion in loans and grants made by international donors at the CEDRE conference in Paris last year.'

Report: Parties Putting the ‘Finishing Touches’ on Form of Govt.
Naharnet/December 06/2019
Amid reports that a breakthrough has been made on the formation of a new Lebanese government, parties still have to decide whether it will be composed of 18 or 24 ministers and whether figures of the previous government are set to take seats in the new cabinet, the Saudi Ashaq al-Awsat reported on Friday.
Ministerial sources close to President Michel Aoun told the daily that parties are putting the “finishing touches on the form of the new government, but the sovereign portfolios could be distributed differently. The cabinet could either be formed of 18 or 24 ministers,” they said. They added saying that around four ministers from the resigned government will be given ministerial seats in the new cabinet, including Nada al-Bustani of the Free Patriotic Movement, Salim Jreissati of the President’s quota, Ali Hassan Khalil of AMAL party and Mohammed Fnesih of Hizbullah. “Al-Mustaqbal Movement and the Progressive Socialist Party are to name non-political figures to represent them,” according to the source. With regard to the dispute over the ministries of interior and foreign affairs, and the insistence of Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil to get the first, the sources pointed to Asharq al-Awsat that “discussion is still underway in this framework,” but noted that the sovereign ministries are likely to remain with the same political parties.

Mashnouq to Boycott Consultations, Hajjar Says Mustaqbal to Vote for Khatib
Naharnet/December 06/2019
Ex-interior minister and Beirut MP Nouhad al-Mashnouq on Friday announced that he will boycott the binding parliamentary consultations to name a new premier scheduled for Monday. In a tweet, Mashnouq, once a member of al-Mustaqbal bloc, said his decision comes out of “respect for the will of the capital’s residents” following “the statement that was issued by the Union of the Associations of Beiruti Families.” The statement accused President Michel Aoun and Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil of seeking to impose the candidate Samir Khatib on parliament prior to the binding consultations.
“They have bypassed the Taef constitution,” they charged. MP Mohammed al-Hajjar meanwhile told al-Jadeed TV that his Mustaqbal bloc is “committed” to voting for Khatib in the consultations.

Wahhab Says PM Candidates 'May Change before Monday'
Naharnet/December 06/2019
Ex-minister Wiam Wahhab on Friday said that a new premiership candidate might emerge prior to Monday’s binding parliamentary consultations, suggesting that international and domestic forces might push for a nominee other than Samir Khatib. “Lebanon is betting on (French) President (Emmanuel) Macron’s support to halt the financial and economic collapse and the Paris meeting may prompt a change in the premiership candidates before Monday,” Wahhab, who is close to Hizbullah, tweeted.Khatib has so far emerged as the leading candidate to lead the new government, after consensus was reached among the ruling coalition’s main parties. Media reports have said France intends to hold a meeting Wednesday for the International Support Group for Lebanon to help the country cope with its dire economic crisis. A European official confirmed that invitations to the meeting have been sent out. A Lebanese official meanwhile said that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to be invited to the meeting.

Khatib in 'Very Good Health', His Office Says
Naharnet/December 06/2019
The leading candidate for the post of PM-designate, Samir Khatib, is in “very good health,” his office said on Friday. “Some media outlets published a report about Engineer Khatib’s health, following a series of rumors in this regard that involved insulting and false information which are totally baseless,” the office said in a statement. “Engineer Khatib would like to stress that the aforementioned report -- like the rest of the rumors -- is false,” the office added. “To whom it may concern: he is in very good health,” it said. Consultations to name a PM-designate will be held Monday, the Presidency has announced, more than a month after a wave of protests led outgoing prime minister Saad Hariri to resign. Khatib is a businessman who is less widely known than most former prime ministers and has no experience in politics. Protesters have demanded the wholesale removal of the current political class and have insisted on a government dominated by technocrats.

Bassil Warns Europe against 'Chaos' in Lebanon
Naharnet/December 06/2019
Caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil on Friday warned Europe that chaos in Lebanon would create repercussions similar to those of the Syrian crisis, such as extremism and a refugee influx towards Europe. “Chaos in Lebanon – which some foreign forces are plotting – will have a similar outcome as that of the Syrian crisis: the country’s ruin, the destruction of its institutions, bloodshed among its sons, roving extremism and an influx of refugees towards you,” Bassil warned in a speech in Rome during the Mediterranean Dialogues conference.“Seeking improvement or out of extremism, Lebanon’s guests (Syrian refugees) will seek to move towards you and Lebanon will not be able to stop them from carrying their problems to you,” Bassil cautioned, addressing the European countries. “Chaos in Lebanon will create a flaw in internal balances, whereas Lebanon, the country of balances, cannot withstand further flaws,” the minister added. Noting that the approach of “winners and losers” in Lebanon is “rejected and unsustainable,” Bassil emphasized that “there is no place in Lebanon for unilateralism.”Speaking during a discussion session later in the day, Bassil said “the current uprising is the only way to implement the necessary reforms, after all other means to achieve them were blocked.”Asked how the young generation is behaving in terms of the unprecedented protests that have rocked Lebanon since October 17, Bassil said the revolt is the result of the “failure of politicians and the political system.”
“People on the streets are rightful, because they took to the streets due to their pain… but some are trying to exploit the issue to achieve negative objectives and control the events but they have so far failed,” Bassil added.

Bassil from Rome: I ask of you to help Lebanon cast off those who interfere in its affairs
NNA /December 06/2019
In his speech on Friday during the opening of the fifth edition of the Euro-Mediterranean dialogue in Rome, Caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, Gebran Bassil, stressed Lebanon's wish to be a bridge between the East and the West. "Lebanon, with its centered location, is at the heart of the Arab-Israeli conflict, as well as the Arab-Persian one, yet we want it to be a base for fair solutions," Bassil said.
He went on to regret that regional crises and wars only bogged Lebanon down in deeper misfortunes. "Lebanon has paid the price for permanent conflicts, as well as that of Palestinian asylum and Syrian displacement," Bassil added, shedding light on the fact that many Lebanese have lost their jobs to foreign workers.
"The prevailing chaos in Lebanon, which some abroad have prepared for, will be the ruin of the country (..).The result will be an imbalance on the internal scene, yet Lebanon does not want any more divisions," Bassil maintained. "I ask of you today to help Lebanon cast off those who interfere in its affairs in order to give the country the opportunity to help itself to remain alive and to be an example of coexistence," Bassil implored. "The saying goes in our country: 'if your neighbor is fine, then you are fine'. Pay attention, because our eastern Mediterranean is not fine and has many problems. Building peace only happens through dialogue and development," Bassil concluded. The Caretaker Foreign Minister arrived in Rome on Friday to partake in the inauguration of the fifth edition of the Euro-Mediterranean Dialogue. Bassil kicked off his Rome visit by meeting with Italian counterpart, Luigi Di Maio, with whom he discussed Lebanese-Italian bilateral relations. The pair agreed on the need strengthen ties between both countries in all fields, especially on the economic level whilst facing the dire financial and economic crisis that Lebanon currently endures. Later during the day, and on the sidelines of the Euro-Mediterranean Dialogue Conference, Bassil held a series of talks with a number of foreign ministers, including Turkish counterpart, Mevlüt اavusoglu. Talks between both men reportedly touched on the overall situation in Lebanon and the Middle East region, as well as on the impact of the conflicts taking place in the region on both countries. Means of bolstering regional cooperation to confront the Syrian refugee crisis also featured high between the pair.It is to note that Bassil's participation in the Euro-Mediterranean Dialogue Conference affirms Lebanon's role in the Euro-Mediterranean partnership, which tackles common issues, most notably environmental and economic cooperation, confronting immigration and unemployment problems among the youth, the role of women, development prospects, and popularizing a culture of peace among Mediterranean countries. In more than one of his meetings in Rome, Bassil stressed the need to establish a Palestinian state and to hold a Saudi-Iranian dialogue.

Rome 2019 MED Dialogues: UfM steps up regional action to tackle water scarcity
NNA /December 06/2019
The UfM is participating in the MED - Mediterranean Dialogues in Rome by holding its 1st Annual Conference on Water Investment and Financing, as part of the UfM Water agenda & Financial Strategy. The main goal of the conference, as presented by the UfM Secretary General, Nasser Kamel, during his intervention, is "to push the boundaries of traditional thinking about water investments by discussing evidence-based knowledge on opportunities to facilitate new forms of financing and enhance the sustainability of the sector".
The conference highlighted the necessity of water cooperation for regional security in the Euro-Mediterranean region. The session discussed and examined appropriate options for blending different sources of financing among the stakeholders, international organisations and new forms of Public-Private Partnership. The UfM Secretariat is determined to pave the road for a stronger role for the private actors in the water sector, as this is a cornerstone for sustainable financing. This includes supporting Governments in developing a long-term vision on how to involve the private sector, with the necessary policy-reforms to insure guarantees in delivering such a vital service and resource. The UfM Secretary General, Nasser Kamel, stated: "The Mediterranean region is facing major environmental issues and dealing with water security is of utmost importance. A stronger role of the private sector is key to achieve the financial sustainability of such a vital sector. Its involvement, together with public institutions, will strengthen the action undertaken by the UfM to cope with these challenges."
Water-related challenges by 2050 are projected to lower the MENA-region's GDP by 6-14%, if a do-nothing approach is pursued, as predicted by the World Bank, as large volumes of water are lost due to inappropriate techniques or outdated infrastructure. The Mediterranean region holds only 3% of the global water resources and these can decrease by 15% if nothing is changed in current policies. 250 million people are projected to be considered water-poor by 2025.
The UfM Water Agenda seeks to enhance regional cooperation towards sustainable and integrated water management in the UfM region. Its Financial Strategy is conceived to close the funding gap for water management and facilitate increased financing of investments for improved access to water; protection against the risk of droughts, floods or polluted water; and sustainable growth in the region. The strategy sets 10 common strategic objectives and a menu of 48 actions that individual countries are expected to prioritize and implement according to their individual circumstances, priorities and capacities. The Strategy foresees a series of national training workshops as well as regional activities, including an annual regional conference on water investment and finance.
This 1st UfM Annual Conference on Water Investment and Financing focused on the role of the public-private partnerships (PPP), is part of the nine Forums held on specific topics in the fifth edition of the MED - Mediterranean Dialogues Conference. It was organised by the Union for the Mediterranean in partnership with the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, the Global Water Partnership, the 'Making Water Cooperation Happen in the Mediterranean' project as well as the EU Delegation in Cairo, with the support of the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida). The full list of speakers is available here. The Secretary General will pronounce keynote speeches during the MED Dialogue days on the "Geopolitical side of Climate Change: Resource Scarcity and Conflicts" and the "Euro-Med Cooperation in view of the 25th anniversary of the Barcelona Declaration". He is accompanied by Deputy Secretary General Isidro Gonzalez, in charge of Water, Environment and Blue Economy; Deputy Secretary General Grammenos Mastrojeni, in charge of Energy and Climate Action; and UfM Water Managing Director, Almotaz Abadi. Is to note that to further pursue its work on climate action, the UfM will be co-organising three side-events at the COP25.-UfM

Al-Rahi: Embassies Facilitating Emigration to Empty Lebanon of Its People, Christians
Naharnet/December 06/2019
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Friday warned that “some embassies” are facilitating emigration for Lebanese citizens in order to “empty Lebanon of its people and Christians.”Addressing the “young men and women of the civil protest movement,” al-Rahi warned them that “some embassies, which I will not name now, are facilitating the issue of emigration, as if it is a second war to empty Lebanon of its people and Christians.”“Young men and women, you have to remain resilient throughout this plight, the same as our grandfathers and ancestors did during the crises that Lebanon faced throughout history, so that we preserve Lebanon and restore it,” al-Rahi added. “You are rightful when you dream of a country that offers you security, peace and the simplest rights, but you have to show patience and endurance until this black cloud passes,” the patriarch went on to say. Al-Rahi also said that he is praying for “all the young men and women of the civil protest movement,” especially those who “are struggling night and day, as happened two days ago, when the youths organized a sit-in after three citizens committed suicide over the financial situations.” “These youths have one demand: a government that can achieve Lebanon’s rise and recover its role and message,” the patriarch went on to say.

Over 60 Companies Notify Ministry of Plans to Lay Off Employees
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 06/2019
In the span of one week, over 60 companies notified the labor ministry of plans to lay off employees, caretaker minister Camille Abu Suleiman told LBCI television on Friday. The union of restaurant and bar owners has recently said that 265 establishments have closed since the protests began in early October, and warned that this figure could rise to 465 by the end of the year. The World Bank has warned of an impending recession that may see the proportion of people living in poverty climb from a third to half the population. Unemployment, already above 30 percent for young people, would also increase, it has said. Since October 17, Lebanon has been rocked by anti-government protests that triggered a protracted lockdown and prompted the cabinet to resign. Political paralysis amid the ongoing demonstrations has aggravated a dollar liquidity crisis that since September has seen banks limit dollar withdrawals and transfers. With banks failing to provide sufficient dollars, the greenback is selling for more than 2,000 Lebanese pounds on the parallel market for the first time since it was officially pegged at 1,507 in 1997.  Several sectors have struggled to obtain hard currency for imports, with banks capping dollar withdrawals at $500 a week and sometimes less.

Paris to Convene Lebanon Support Meeting as Hariri Requests Aid for Imports
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 December, 2019
France plans to convene a meeting of an international support group for Lebanon next week to mobilize assistance for the country, a Lebanese government official said, as caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri requested aid to help the country secure imports of food and raw materials.A European official said invitations had been sent out for the Dec. 11 meeting in Paris. "It is a meeting to attempt to mobilize assistance to help Lebanon deal with the acute crisis that it is facing," the Lebanese official said. The official spoke to Reuters as a statement from Hariri’s office said that the caretaker PM requested the aid from friendly countries amid an acute dollar shortage. Hariri “asked them to assist Lebanon by securing credits for imports from these countries, thus ensuring the continuity of food security and raw materials for production in various sectors,” it said. The appeal for aid was sent to eight western and Arab countries. Lebanon is grappling with heavy financial strains. Banks have been imposing tight controls on access to hard currency and transfers abroad for more than a month, fearing capital flight. The crisis has worsened since Oct. 17, when nationwide protests against years of corruption and mismanagement erupted, leading to the resignation of Hariri's government two weeks later. Lebanon imports most of its basic needs, including wheat, petrol and medicine, leading to a huge trade deficit. Importers have been facing difficulties in getting US dollars to cover imports as the local currency, which has been pegged to the dollar since 1997, lost 40 percent of its value on the black market.

Lebanon: Depositors Highly Anxious Due to Banks’ Recent Measures
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 December, 2019
Despite official statements by Lebanon’s Central Bank (BDL) and the Association of Lebanese Banks, depositors’ anxiety is mounting amid strict measures adopted by banks on capitals and withdrawals. Congestion of cars parked randomly near bank branches across the country and the presence of the security guards and police officers at the entrances are all signs of mounting tension. Inside the bank, depositors wait in lines for their turn. A retired soldier stands behind 85 people before receiving a portion of his salary as permitted by the bank’s procedures. An employee whispers to her friend, telling her to withdraw all the money she has the right to receive, even if she does not need it. “Why?” The friend asks. “Don’t ask. I don’t know. We follow the instructions and we have no right to understand the reasons.” But the employee stresses that there is no fear for deposits in the long term.
“This crisis will be solved,” she says. An employee of another bank, answering his phone, says that there are no dollars in the cash machine. “We are waiting for the batch to come. As soon as it arrives, you have to get the required amount because the machines are being emptied at an insane speed,” he murmurs. “People are nervous and they are making us nervous.”One of the citizens, who preferred not to wait in line and use the ATM instead, was surprised by the new restrictions on withdrawals. She told Asharq Al-Awsat that a few days ago, she was allowed to withdraw from the ATM one million LBP per day. Today, only 500,000 LBP per day and $300 per week can be withdrawn. These measures have turned the bank card into an ineffective means for the depositors. The middle and low-income Lebanese are frightened by their inability to collect their salaries. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Lawyer Ali Abbas said: “Banking procedures are illegal under the Money and Credit Law, which regulates the relationship of banks with depositors, and does not allow restrictions imposed by banks. As for the commitment of banks to circulars issued by the Association of Banks, it is also against the law, because the Association’s circulars are related to the organization of the internal work of banks, and not to regulate the relationship of banks with depositors.” “Therefore, the current measures are de facto procedures, and cannot fall within a state of emergency,” he remarked, explaining that only a governmental decree or a law by Parliament could declare an emergency state.

Lebanon appeals for import aid; France to hold meeting
BEIRUT (Reuters)/December 06/2019
Lebanon appealed to friendly states on Friday to help it import essential goods as it grapples with an acute economic crisis, and official sources said France would convene an international meeting next week to mobilize support for the country.Lebanon's economic crisis, the worst since its 1975-90 civil war, has spiraled into a financial crunch since the eruption of protests against the ruling elite in October, leading to hard currency shortages that have impeded imports.The country has also been in a political crisis since Saad al-Hariri quit as prime minister more than five weeks ago, prompted by protests against ruling politicians over corruption. Consensus emerged this week around businessman Samir Khatib as the new premier and he is expected to be designated on Monday unless Lebanon's volatile politics brings surprises before then. A new government is seen as a crucial step for Lebanon to chart a way out of the crisis and appeal for the help of foreign governments waiting for the new administration to take shape. Hariri, running a caretaker government, issued his appeal to Saudi Arabia, France, Russia, Turkey, the United States, China, and Egypt, seeking help to finance imports of essential goods. A statement said this was part of his efforts to address the liquidity shortage and to ensure "the continuity of food security and raw materials for production". Capital controls - which are being enforced by commercial banks but have not been formalized by the authorities - have led some importers to slash their orders as they have been unable to source dollars at the official rate or make transfers abroad. The central bank has rationed dollars for wheat, fuel, and medicine, but buyers of these must still source 15% of the dollars, raising costs because of a slump in the Lebanese pound. The pound firmed slightly on Friday, with dollars offered at 1,930 pounds compared to 1,980 on Thursday, but was still 28% weaker than the official rate of 1,507.5 pounds, dealers said. The crisis is rooted state waste and corruption overseen by leaders using government resources for their own gain. Lebanon is one of the world's most heavily indebted states. Lebanon won international pledges of more than $11 billion in project financing last year on condition reforms are enacted. France aims to mobilize international support at the conference which a European official and a Lebanese official said would take place in Paris on Dec. 11. The meeting will gather representatives of the International Support Group which includes the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were also expected to be invited, the Lebanese official said.
(Reporting by Tom Perry and Eric Knecht in Beirut and John Irish; Editing by Alison Williams, William Maclean)

Lebanon caretaker PM Hariri sends aid appeal to ‘friendly’ states before meeting
Al Arabiya English, Reuters/Friday, 6 December 2019
Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri has sent an aid appeal to “friendly” countries in a statement from his office on Friday. Hariri appealed for aid to secure food and raw materials for Lebanon in the statement, as the country suffers from an economic crisis including a shortage of dollars. Hariri said he was directing his appeal to Saudi Arabia, France, Russia, Turkey, the United States, China, and Egypt. The appeal comes ahead of a meeting of an international support group for Lebanon, due to meet in Paris on December 11, according to Reuters.According to a Lebanese official cited by Reuters, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were expected to be invited.

Lebanon’s Crisis Hits Syrian Refugees Hard
Paula Astih/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 06/2019
Sabah, a 45-year-old Syrian refugee who has been living in Lebanon since 2013 under dire economic conditions, laments her worsening financial situation after the eruption of anti-government protests on Oct. 17. Sabah has been supporting a family of four children by cleaning houses since her husband abandoned them. She couldn’t leave her house for 15 days after angry protesters took to Lebanon's streets, and demand for her services declined sharply since then. She complained to Asharq AlAwsat that the landlord of her apartment in Beirut’s southern suburbs is now demanding the rent in dollars although she had been paying it in Lebanese pounds. “Knowing that it would increase the cost, I still tried to convert my pounds into dollars, but I was told that dollars are not readily available in the market.”Food inflation has perhaps had the biggest impact on Sabah and tens of thousands of other Syrian refugees in Lebanon.
Sabah explains that she and her family needed $100 a week before Lebanon’s revolution, “but today, even $140 are not enough. The United Nations, which used to allocate about $27 per person a month, has not been sending us money under the pretext of bank closures”.
Like many others, the woman hopes to relocate through the UN refugee agency, but places are limited. This has pushed many others, convinced that they will not be granted refugee status, to plan their return to Syria. Adnan, 37, told Asharq Al-Awsat that he would return to Syria today if he weren’t owed money for construction work he had done. “The situation is distressing on all levels. It’s best to go back home despite the difficulty of the situation there.”Many Lebanese hold Syrian refugees responsible for the country’s deteriorating economic situation. “While there is a level of concern among displaced Syrians about the current situation in Lebanon, it is difficult at this stage to assess whether this will have a direct impact on the possible increase in the number of returnees to Syria,” said UNHCR spokeswoman Lisa Abu Khaled. A number of disputes between Lebanese citizens and displaced Syrians have been registered near ATMs. Many Lebanese complain that the refugees receive money, albeit in small amounts, from the UNHCR while they are unemployed and in need of financial assistance. However, in the northeastern border town of Arsal, which hosts more Syrian refugees than any other Lebanese town, the displaced live in relative harmony with the locals even after Lebanon’s protest movement began, as confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat by the deputy head of Arsal municipality, Rima Karnbi. She said a committee has been formed to facilitate the return of a large group of refugees from Arsal to the Syrian town of Qusair.

Lebanese demonstrators continue protesting political and economic situations
Joanne Serrieh, Al Arabiyah English/December 06/2019
Lebanon witnessed more demonstrations Friday in several regions throughout the country protesting against the political situation and the worsening economic crisis that led a number of young men to commit suicide. Lebanese protesters have blocked Minieh highway in the northern part of the country near Tripoli, according to NNA. The army has been negotiating with the protesters to re-open it after the road closure caused major traffic delays for those heading to Tripoli and others going further north to Minieh and Akkar. Overnight, protesters, who call themselves “the revolutionary wing of Sidon rising up,” put locks and metal chains on the iron gate of the South Lebanon Water Foundation in the coastal city of Sidon, NNA reported. This was in response to the foundation shutting off water supplies to several buildings and houses in the city due to late payments of outstanding bills. Workers in the country have been dealing with pay cuts due to the economic crisis in the country. Many private companies have resorted to reducing staff or slashing their pay to deal with rising inflation and liquidity crunch. For example, Journalist Benjamin Redd announced on Wednesday that workers at the Lebanese news outlet, The Daily Star, “are owed up to a half a year’s salary.” Redd was fired from his job for trying to organize a strike, he said in a tweet. Other journalists at the outlet have resigned or are on strike. In the southern town of Nabatieh, protesters staged a sit-in in front of the vehicle registration department, for the second day in a row, demanding accountability of public money looters, NNA reported. They closed the main entrance of the department and only allowed employees to enter while preventing any citizens from entering. There was a presence of internal security forces following Thursday’s clashes between protesters and those who opposed the department closure and disruption of the interests of the citizens. Demonstrators have been taking to the streets of Lebanon since October and are fueled by deep resentment for a ruling class seen as mired in corruption, which drove the economy into crisis.

Lebanon appeals for aid to pay for imports of essential goods
Jazeera//December 07, 2019
Caretaker government issues appeal to Saudi Arabia, France, Russia, Turkey, the United States, China and Egypt.
Lebanon is appealing to friendly states on Friday to help it import essential goods as it grapples with an acute economic crisis, while official sources also said France would convene an international meeting next week to mobilise support for the country. Lebanon's economic crisis, the worst since its 1975-90 civil war, has spiralled into a financial crunch since the eruption of protests against the ruling elite in October, leading to hard currency shortages that have impeded imports. The country has also been in a political crisis since Saad Hariri quit as prime minister more than five weeks ago, prompted by protests against ruling politicians over corruption. Consensus emerged this week around businessman Samir Khatib as the new premier, and he is expected to be designated on Monday unless Lebanon's volatile politics brings surprises before then. A new government is seen as a crucial step for Lebanon to chart a way out of the crisis and appeal for the help of foreign governments waiting for the new administration to take shape. Hariri, running a caretaker government, issued his appeal to Saudi Arabia, France, Russia, Turkey, the United States, China and Egypt, seeking help to finance imports of essential goods. A statement said this was part of his efforts to address the liquidity shortage and to ensure "the continuity of food security and raw materials for production". Capital controls - which are being enforced by commercial banks but have not been formalised by the authorities - have led some importers to slash their orders as they have been unable to source dollars at the official rate or make transfers abroad. The central bank has rationed dollars for wheat, fuel and medicine, but buyers of these must still source 15 percent of the dollars, raising costs because of a slump in the Lebanese pound. The pound firmed slightly on Friday, with US dollars offered at 1,930 pounds compared to 1,980 on Thursday, but the currency was still 28 percent weaker than the official rate of 1,507.5 pounds per dollar, dealers said. The crisis is rooted in state waste and corruption overseen by leaders using government resources for their own gain. Lebanon is one of the world's most heavily indebted states. The country won international pledges of more than $11bn in project financing last year on the condition that reforms would be enacted. France aims to mobilise international support at its planned upcomiing conference, which a European official and a Lebanese official said would take place in Paris on December 11. The meeting will gather representatives of the international support group that includes the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were also expected to be invited, the Lebanese official said.

Lebanese lawmakers to defy naming of new PM
Najia Houssari/Arab News/December 07/2019
Saad Hariri submitted the resignation of his government on Oct. 29 as a result of ongoing mass protests against corruption
BEIRUT: Three lawmakers and members of Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s parliamentary bloc will not abide by its decision to name a new prime minister on Monday. Meanwhile, activists in the civil movement are holding meetings to announce a general strike and the blocking of roads on Monday in protest over reports that the new government will not include technocrats.
Samir Al-Khatib is considered the most favored candidate after preliminary consultations conducted by Aoun with his allies prior to setting the date for binding parliamentary consultations to nominate a Sunni prime minister, as required by the Lebanese constitution. Prime Minister Saad Hariri submitted the resignation of his government on Oct. 29 as a result of ongoing mass protests against corruption. He later said he would not agree to head a new government unless it consisted of technocrats. Lawmaker Neemat Frem urged citizens to provide him with the name of their favorite candidate to head the new government, “for you are the primary source of authority, and it is my duty to convey your voice in the binding parliamentary consultations.”Lawmaker Chamel Roukoz said he will not nominate anyone for the position of prime minister. Lawmaker Michel Daher declared his intention to boycott the parliamentary consultations if Al-Khatib is the only candidate. Aoun assured a delegation of British financial and investment institutions, and US bank Morgan Stanley, that binding parliamentary consultations will take place on Monday to form a new government, which will help Lebanon’s friends launch agreed-to development projects. “The new government’s priority will be to address the economic and financial conditions as soon as it is formed,” he said.
HIGHLIGHT
Samir Al-Khatib is considered the most favored candidate after preliminary consultations conducted by Aoun with his allies prior to setting the date for binding parliamentary consultations to nominate a Sunni prime minister, as required by the Lebanese constitution. On Friday, Hariri sent letters to the leaders of a number of countries with good relations with Lebanon. He asked them to help Lebanon secure credit to import goods from these countries, in order to ensure food security and availability of raw materials for production in various sectors. His media office said the move “is part of his efforts to address the shortage of financial liquidity, and to secure procuring the basic import requirements for citizens.”Among the leaders Hariri wrote to are Saudi Arabia’s King Salman; the presidents of France, Russia, Egypt and Turkey; the prime ministers of China and Italy; and the US secretary of state.
On Dec. 11, Paris is due to host a meeting of the International Support Group for Lebanon. Reuters quoted a European source as saying: “France has already sent invitations to attend the group meeting.”Protesters continued their sit-ins in front of government institutions in Nabatieh, Zahle and Saida. In Tripoli, protesters blocked the city’s main roads, which were eventually reopened by the army. In Akkar, protesters raided public institutions and called for an “independent government that fights corruption, restores looted funds, and rescues the economic situation and living conditions from total collapse.”
Lebanese designer Robert Abi Nader canceled a fashion show that was due to be organized in Downtown Beirut, where protesters are gathering. Abi Nader said he intended through his show to express support for the protests by designing a special outfit called “the bride of the revolution,” and revenues were to be dedicated to families in need.

Saad Hariri requests aid to secure Lebanon's food imports
Sunniva Rose/The National/December 06/2019
Country is suffering from an acute shortage of dollars needed to bring in goods
Lebanon's caretaker prime minister Saad Hariri has requested aid from friendly countries to help it secure imports of food and raw materials amid an acute dollar shortage.The appeal for aid was sent to Saudi Arabia, France, Russia, Turkey, the United States, China, and Egypt, the prime minister's office said on Friday. Lebanon is grappling with the worst financial strains since its 1975-1990 civil war. World Bank officials said on Friday that they expected the recession in 2019 to be even more significant than an earlier projection of a 0.2 per cent contraction in the economy. The World Bank is among foreign donors who pledged billions of dollars of badly needed aid in Paris last year if Lebanon’s government enacted long-delayed reforms. But with foreign allies not fully convinced, the money has yet to flow into the economy. However, France has agreed to convene another meeting to mobilise international support for Lebanon on December 11. A Lebanese official told Reuters that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were expected to be invited. Importers say that banks started restricting their access to dollars, which are used interchangeably with the local currency, in the summer, severely impeding their ability to pay for purchases from abroad. Petrol station owners went on a two-day strike last week to demand that the Energy Ministry increase the price of fuel. In mid-November, private hospitals also went on strike for a day to warn of imminent shortages in medical supplies.
Certain imported products, such as cigarettes or cereal, have become scarce in local supermarkets. Banks started restricting cash withdrawals in early November, two weeks after anti-government protests started, spurred by the bad economy. Though the Association of Lebanese Banks announced a cap of $1,000 a week on November 17, this had dwindled to a few hundred dollars by early December, varying from bank to bank.
Under pressure from protesters, Mr Hariri resigned on October 29 and Lebanon has been without a government since. The small Mediterranean country is dependent on imports for local consumption. The value of imports in 2018 was $19.9 billion (Dh73bn), while exports totalled $2.9bn. Customs figures show that Lebanon’s biggest supplier of goods is China ($2bn), followed by Greece ($1.7bn), Italy ($1.6bn) and the United States ($1.4bn).

Analysis/Hezbollah Commandos Are Back on Israel's Border, and They're Armed With the Element of Surprise
عاموس هاريل/هآرتس: قوات الرضوان التابعة لحزب الله تعود إلى الحدود اللبنانية الإسرائيلية وبحوزتها عنصر مفاجأة
Amos Harel and Yaniv Kubovich/Haaretz/December 06/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/81181/%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d9%82%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b1%d8%b6%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%a7%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%a9-%d9%84%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d9%87-%d8%aa/
Israel believes Nasrallah is deterred since the 2006 war, but thinks Hezbollah and Iran are seeking to challenge it with a limited conflict
The main change that has taken place over the past year on the Israeli-Lebanese border involves Hezbollah’s new military preparedness. Following about five years in which most of Hezbollah’s efforts, and most of the people in its top units, were mired in the Syrian civil war, the fighters have returned home, to southern Lebanon.
Members of Hezbollah’s Radwan commando force have been released from the Assad regime’s battle for survival and have returned to their original positions in Lebanon, near the front line. Some of the units are deployed relatively close to the border with Israel, with a presence south of the Litani River as well, in violation of the terms of the cease-fire spelled out in UN Security Council Resolution 1701 at the end of the 2006 Second Lebanon War.
At an observation post overlooking Lebanon from the Israeli side of the border, it’s possible to make out observation points facing in the other direction, which were established by Hezbollah more than two years ago on the pretext that they belonged to an environmental group. Some of Hezbollah’s activities along the border are carried out in civilian garb and without weapons being visible, in coordination with the Lebanese army. But Israeli intelligence has been gathering documented proof of the activity, as part of its regular wrangling with Lebanon over violations of UN resolutions.
n the Israeli army, it has been difficult to identify which of the activists are Radwan members and which belong to Hezbollah’s regional defense network, which has been deployed in the south over the years: Commando activists move around differently and are equipped differently from regional activists.
Hezbollah’s years of fighting in Syria alongside Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Russian army officers have given the organization and its commanders critical experience in fields that were unfamiliar to them in the past. This experience, however, came coupled with heavy loses. (In Israel the estimate is that about 2,000 Hezbollah fighters were killed and more than 8,000 were wounded).
But the return to the south gives Hezbollah another advantage: The proximity of its top units to the border theoretically shortens the time it needs to carry out a surprise attack against Israel, in the nature of a move talked about it recent years – a surprise takeover of communities or Israeli army positions along the border.
The General Staff and Northern Command officers are aware of this risk and a number of changes have been made in the army’s defense and intelligence alignment to thwart the danger.
The tension along the border peaked in a series of events at the end of August, when three attacks that were attributed to Israel took place – against Iranian combatants and affiliated Shi’ite organizations in Iraq, near the Golan border in Syria and in Iraq. Israel took responsibility for only one of the attacks. Hezbollah responded with an anti-tank ambush near Moshav Avivim on September 1, when three missiles were fired at and missed an army ambulance.
After the attacks, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah threatened a war on the Israeli UAVs, which were reportedly involved in all the strikes. At the end of October Hezbollah launched, for the first time in years, an anti-tank missile at an Israeli drone circling the south Lebanon sky. The missile missed.
Missile fire is part of the rival sides’ message exchange. Despite Nasrallah’s firm rhetoric, Israeli intelligence assumes he has no current interest in starting a war and is still being held back by the harsh lessons of the 2006 war. The problem is that not everything is up to him. The regular tension along the border fits in with the regional instability. The Iranian leadership and allies are under heavy pressure, due to the bloody riots in Iraq, the massive protest refusing to die down in Lebanon and the fuel protest in Iran itself, which was brutally quashed more than two weeks ago but could still reignite.
In these circumstances, and considering the increasing pace of the changes, it’s no wonder Military Intelligence has updated its evaluation and believes the risk of war has increased in the past year.
The IDF detects Iran and Hezbollah’s desire to challenge Israel with an isolated incident that isn’t meant to escalate into a large-scale war. But Israel believes every such incident increases the chance of a mistake being made. The fear of miscalculation pertains to misreading the rival’s “war threshold.” Hezbollah could initiate a provocation that, in its opinion, doesn’t justify opening up a war, but Israel may think differently and react forcefully, bringing the sides closer to war.
In the background another source of danger is simmering – Hezbollah’s “precision project.” Israel claims it has thus far thwarted most Iranian moves to improve the Hezbollah missiles’ precision. This was done by attacking arms smuggling convoys in Syria, together with public pressure that led to the evacuation of missile-production and precision-upgrade sites shortly after they were set up in Lebanon. But Iran hasn’t given up on this activity, so sooner or later a clash with Israel is expected over new production lines in Lebanon.
At the same time the effectiveness of the “campaign between the wars,” waged by the IDF and the Israeli intelligence community, comes into question. On the northern front a large part of this campaign was focused on preventing arms smuggling. However, Israel’s freedom to act in the north has been somewhat curtailed, because as the civil war in Syria dies down, there is more friction with the other states’ interests.
Russia is concerned over the risk of the Israeli attacks to its troops in Syria, Iran is trying to establish a new equation of retaliating against every Israeli strike, and the Syrian regime is determined to respond to every bombing or shelling in Syria’s territory, as reported in Haaretz last Friday.
Defense Minister Naftali Bennett thinks the opposite is true. In his opinion Israel now has an opportunity to ramp up the attacks and strive forcefully to remove all Iranian military presence from Syria.

Israeli military says Hezbollah undeterred despite recent setbacks
Associated Press/Ynetnews/December 06/2019
IDF officials say neither the destruction of the terror group's attack tunnels, nor the Lebanese faction's recent domestic problems have undermined Iranian-backed Hezbollah's preparations for a war with Israel
A year after uncovering a network of cross-border Hezbollah tunnels, the Israeli military says the Lebanese militant group has beefed up its presence along the volatile frontier. Military officials say that neither the destruction of the tunnels, nor Hezbollah's recent domestic problems, have weakened the group's desire to prepare for renewed conflict with Israel. "We have a very serious enemy,"� said Col. Roy Levy, the military's Northern Border Brigade commander, during a tour of the area Thursday. He said the group's main focus is to entrench itself along the border area and "plan to attack us."Israel and Hezbollah fought a monthlong war in 2006 that ended in a U.N.-brokered cease-fire. While direct fighting has been rare since then, there has been occasional violence, most recently on September 1 when Hezbollah fired a barrage of anti-tank missiles into Israel and Israel responded with artillery fire.
Israel also has acknowledged carrying out scores of airstrikes in neighboring Syria, many of them believed to have been aimed at Iranian weapons shipments bound for its Hezbollah proxy. Israel considers Hezbollah to be its most immediate threat, saying the group has amassed an arsenal of some 130,000 rockets and missiles capable of striking virtually anywhere in Israel. More recently, it has accused the group of trying to import or develop guided missiles. Last December, Israel announced that it had uncovered a network of tunnels that it said Hezbollah was building with the aim of infiltrating and carrying out attacks. Over several months, it systematically destroyed the structures. Hezbollah has not commented on the tunnels, though the U.N. peacekeeping force UNIFIL has said the group violated the 2006 cease-fire. In recent years, Israeli says Hezbollah has taken over houses in southern Lebanese border villages to hide soldiers, ammunition, cameras and intelligence-gathering equipment. Levy pointed across the tree-lined frontier to several small shacks that he said were Hezbollah positions, just a few hundred meters away from Israeli residents. "Civilians, farmers, children drive here every day,"� he said.
In addition to the loss of its tunnels, Hezbollah has suffered other setbacks in recent months. Its patron Iran, suffering from U.S. sanctions, is being rocked by mass demonstrations in which over 200 people have reportedly been killed.
Lebanon has also experienced nationwide protests over the past two months against widespread corruption and mismanagement. Some of that anger has been directed toward Hezbollah, which is now seen as part of the ruling class that has wrecked the country's economy. But Levy said he has seen no changes in the group's behavior. "They have a lot of cameras, a lot of forces along the border, camouflaged,"� he said.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 06-07/2019
UN: Iranian Forces ‘Shooting to Kill’ Protesters, At Least 7,000 Held
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 December, 2019
The United Nations said Friday that at least 7,000 people have "reportedly" been arrested in Iran since mass demonstrations erupted last month, adding Iranian security forces were “shooting to kill” in their deadly crackdown against protesters in recent weeks. In a statement, the UN human rights office said it had obtained "verified video footage" showing security forces firing on protesters, apparently with intent to kill. The rights office added that it had "information suggesting that at least 208 people were killed" during the unrest, echoing a count also tallied by Amnesty International. "There are also reports, which the UN Human Rights Office has so far been unable to verify, suggesting more than twice that number killed," the statement added. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, said video obtained by her office shows "severe violence was used against protesters.""We have also received footage which appears to show security forces shooting unarmed demonstrators from behind while they were running away, and shooting others directly in the face and vital organs – in other words shooting to kill," Bachelet said. Additional video material shows "armed members of security forces shooting from the roof of a justice department building" in the city of Javanrud, west of Tehran in Kermanshah Province, as well as gunfire from helicopters in Sadra, in Fars Province. The protests began on November 15 following a surprise hike in fuel prices. Iran has yet to give overall figures for the number of people killed or arrested when security forces moved in to quell the unrest that saw buildings torched and shops looted. Bachelet's office said it had received many reports of ill-treatment against people arrested, “including with the apparent aim of extracting forced confessions."She charged that "many of the arrested protesters have not had access to a lawyer," while raising alarm over "reports of severe overcrowding and harsh conditions in detention centers, which in some cities include military barracks, sports venues and schools." "I urge the authorities to immediately release from detention all protesters who have been arbitrarily deprived of their liberty," she further said. The demonstrations show the widespread economic discontent gripping Iran since May 2018, when President Donald Trump imposed crushing sanctions after unilaterally withdrawing the United States from the nuclear deal that Tehran struck with world powers.

Facebook closes Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei’s page
Al Arabiya English/Friday, 6 December 2019
The Arabic Facebook page of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was deleted on Friday, according to Persian-language news agency Tasnim. The page had some 100,000 followers and had been earlier restricted by the American social media company, according to Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency. This is not the first time that pages related to the Islamic Revolution Leader are being restricted in social media as Instagram, Twitter and Facebook have repeatedly removed posts from ‘Khamenei.ir’ accounts or imposed other limitations for not adhering to the rules of use. The Iranian government cut off the internet across the country on November 16 before a crackdown on nationwide protests against a steep increase in fuel prices announced a day earlier. Following that, a US State Department official had called for Facebook, Twitter and Instagram to suspend the accounts of Iran’s leaders. Brian Hook, US special envoy for Iran, had accused the Iranian leaders of hypocrisy by continuing to use social media while imposing an internet blackout across the country. “We are calling on social media companies like Facebook and Instagram and Twitter to shut down the accounts of supreme leader [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei, the Foreign Minister [Javad] Zarif and President [Hassan] Rouhani until they restore the internet to their own people,” Hook told Bloomberg.

Iran may have been behind attack on Iraq’s Balad base - US State Dept official
Reuters, Washington/Friday, 6 December 2019
Iran may have been behind Thursday’s attack on Iraq’s Balad air base, a senior US State Department official said on Friday, but added that Washington was awaiting further evidence. Iraqi military on Thursday said that two Katyusha rockets landed inside Balad air base, which hosts US forces and contractors and is located about 50 miles (80 kilometers) north of Baghdad. No casualties or damages were reported in the attack for which there was no immediate claim of responsibility. “We’re waiting for full evidence, but if past is prologue then there’s a good chance that Iran was behind it,” David Schenker, Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs, told reporters in a briefing. On Tuesday, five rockets landed on Ain Al-Asad air base, which hosts US forces in Anbar province in western Iraq without causing any casualties.
Schenker called the increasing attacks something of “great concern,” and said Iran has become more aggressive over the past five to six months. “The Iranians often times, or have certainly in the past, taken aggressive action when they feel under pressure,” he said. The United States ratcheted up economic sanctions against Iran after US President Donald Trump pulled out of a 2015 nuclear pact between Tehran and world powers to choke Iran’s oil exports and isolate its economy. In response, Tehran has remained defiant and rolled back commitments it made under the 2015 deal aimed at keeping Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran also has been angry over a lack of European protection from US sanctions. Tensions in the Gulf in recent months have spiked after attacks on oil tankers and a September air strike on Saudi oil facilities, which the United States blamed on Iran, but that Tehran has denied.

Washington blacklists Iran-backed Iraqi militia leaders over protests
Reuters, Baghdad/Washington/Friday, 6 December 2019
The United States on Friday blacklisted three Iran-backed Iraqi paramilitary leaders over their alleged role in killings of anti-government protesters in Iraq, the US Treasury Department said. They are the latest US sanctions to target Iraqi individuals or armed groups with close links to Tehran as Washington ramps up economic pressure to try to counter Iranian influence in the Middle East. The sanctions target Qais al-Khazali, leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq Iran-backed militia and his brother Laith al-Khazali, another leader of the group. They also target Hussein Falih al-Lami, security chief for the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), Iraq’s state umbrella group of paramilitary factions, which is dominated by groups backed by Iran, including Asaib. The Treasury Department said in a statement that groups led by the three paramilitary leaders “opened fire on peaceful protests, killing dozens of innocent civilians.” Reuters reported last month that Lami, known also as Abu Zainab al-Lami, had directed fighters to open fire on protesters. Iraqi paramilitary groups deny any role in the deaths of protesters, who have demonstrated against the government for more than two months. Security forces have killed more than 400 mostly unarmed protesters, police and medics say. The new sanctions also targeted Iraqi businessman Khamis al-Khanjar for alleged corruption, the statement said. The sanctions freeze any US assets held by the leaders and prohibit Americans from doing business with them.
Senior US Treasury officials said the violent crackdown on protests was “causing even more political instability.”
“Iraqis have a fundamental right to a political process that is free from foreign malign influence and the corruption that both comes with it and fuels it,” one of the officials said. They said the militia leaders had been involved in forced disappearances and abductions of activists.Iran-backed armed groups and politicians have dominated Iraq’s state institutions since a US-led invasion in 2003 that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein, plunged the country into years of civil war and destroyed infrastructure. Iraqi protesters say the groups that dominate the government have kept people poor and jobless through corruption and failed to repair the country despite two years of relative calm after the defeat of ISIS. Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said last week he would quit. Asked about whether sanctions were designed to distance the militia leaders from the process of forming a new government, one of the Treasury officials said: “The timing is quite deliberate... Iraq’s people are demanding a government that is free and clear of foreign interference.”Tension between Washington and Tehran has ramped up as US President Donald Trump’s administration blames Iran for a series of attacks on oil infrastructure in the Gulf and bases hosting US troops in Iraq. Iran denies involvement in the attacks. Iraqi paramilitaries have in turn accused the United States and Israel of attacks on their own installations.

US State Department publishes photos of seized Iranian missiles
Joanne Serrieh, Al Arabiyah English/Friday, 6 December 2019
The US State Department has released photos of the shipment of Iranian weapons and missile parts seized by the US Navy in the Arabian Sea before its arrival to the Iran backed Houthi militias in Yemen, said US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook on Saturday. The seizure happened on November 25 when a US warship conducted a routine flag-verification boarding in international waters off the coast of Yemen, said Hook in a video posted on the State Department’s twitter account. When sailors noticed a small wooden boat not displaying a country flag, the Navy and Coast Guard personnel stopped and boarded the boat for inspection and found the weapons. “The seizure includes sophisticated weapons, sophisticated components of anti-ship cruise missiles, land attack cruise missiles, air defense missiles and anti-tank missiles,” Hook said. “The weapon components comprise the most sophisticated weapons seized by the US Navy to date, during the Yemen conflict.”The US has consistently accused Iran of illegally smuggling arms to the Houthis battling the Yemeni government and has seized smaller and less sophisticated weapons in transit. Smuggling weapons into Yemen is a violation of a UN Security Council resolution.

Europeans, Iran to cross swords at nuclear talks
Reuters, Vienna/Friday, 6 December 2019
European powers will demand Iran stop violating their nuclear deal or potentially face renewed UN sanctions, but with Tehran locked in conflict over US sanctions, there appears to be little scope for compromise when they meet on Friday. The meeting comes amid heightened friction between Iran and the West. Tehran has rolled back its commitments under the 2015 deal in response to Washington’s pullout from it last year and reimposition of sanctions that have crippled its economy. The Europeans and Tehran on Thursday clashed over Iran’s ballistic missile program before senior diplomats from the remaining parties to the deal, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia, meet with Iranian officials in Vienna on Friday.As the accord has slowly eroded, the Europeans have been torn between trying to save it and responding to Iran’s breaches, which have increasingly tested their patience. Iran’s violations have included exceeding the maximum amount of enriched uranium it is allowed under the deal and resuming enrichment at Fordow, a site buried inside a mountain that Iran hid from UN nuclear inspectors. “I think the window for a negotiation and to save the deal is barely open,” said a European diplomat. The Europeans are considering triggering a mechanism in the deal that could lead to the reimposition of UN sanctions. Three diplomats said the political decision was unlikely to be made until January, when Iran is expected to reduce further its commitments to the pact, under which it curtailed its nuclear activities in return for relief from sanctions.
“The European parties to the deal should know that the clock is ticking for them. They try to keep Iran in the deal but then take no action against America’s bullying and pressure,” said a senior Iranian official. Tehran has repeatedly criticized the three European powers for failing to shield Iran’s economy from the far-reaching US sanctions, which have driven away foreign companies interested in doing business there. Highlighting the widening gap between the two sides, Iran’s foreign minister on Thursday said the three had shown their “miserable incompetence” in fulfilling their commitments. He was responding after they sent a letter to the UN Security Council accusing Tehran of having nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. “I don’t think the Europeans have reached their red line yet, but the repeated violations and the fact we’re now entering proliferation territory means their credibility is on the line,” said a Western diplomat. Two diplomats said the Europeans hoped to announce soon the first transaction of a mechanism for barter trade called Inset that would net out amounts at either end for humanitarian goods. But even European diplomats acknowledge the mechanism is symbolic rather than a deal-saving device.

Trump denies US weighing sending more troops to Mideast
Tamara Abueis, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 6 December 2019
US President Donald Trump on Friday denied a report that his country was weighing sending more than 12,000 troops to the Middle East in the face of a perceived threat from Iran. “The story today that we are sending 12,000 troops to Saudi Arabia is false or, to put it more accurately, Fake News!” Trump wrote in a tweet.The Wall Street Journal reported that the possible deployment would include “dozens” more ships and double the number of troops added to the US force in the region since the beginning of this year, citing unnamed US officials. The paper said Trump could make a decision on the troop boost as early as this month.The Pentagon had denied the report on Wednesday, saying that “To be clear, the reporting is wrong. The US is not considering sending 14,000 additional troops to the Middle East.”A series of attacks on shipping vessels and attacks on two Saudi oil installations in September that were blamed on Iran have led to increased tensions in the region. The US has already ramped up its military presence in the Gulf and tightened economic sanction on Tehran, further elevating tensions across the region.(With AFP)

Iran ‘meddling’ a ‘huge violation of Iraqi sovereignty’: US
AFP, Washington/Friday, 6 December 2019
The United States on Friday accused Iran of meddling in Iraq’s quest to form a government, calling it a “huge violation” of sovereignty. “We are encouraging neighbors not to meddle and undermine the constitution of the country,” said David Schenker, the top US diplomat for the Middle East.
Pointing to elite Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani’s presence in Baghdad, Schenker said: “It is unorthodox and it is incredibly problematic and it is a huge violation of Iraqi sovereignty.”

Iraq's Sistani Says New PM Must Be Chosen Without Foreign Interference
Baghdad- Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 December, 2019
Iraq's top Shi'ite Muslim cleric said on Friday that a new prime minister must be chosen without foreign interference after the incumbent Adel Abdul Mahdi announced his resignation a week ago. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani urged political leaders to abandon partisan politics in choosing a new head of government and said he would have no involvement in efforts to replace Abdul Mahdi. Young protesters have thronged Baghdad and the Shiite-majority south since October, accusing the entrenched political elite of corruption and incompetence. Last week, they brought down Abdul Mahdi, who resigned after Sistani urged lawmakers to reconsider their support for the government following two months of anti-establishment protests where security forces have killed more than 400 demonstrators. "We hope a new head of government and its members will be chosen within the constitutional deadline" of 15 days since the resignation was formalized in parliament on Sunday, a representative of Sistani said in his Friday sermon in the holy city of Kerbala. "It must also take place without any foreign interference," he said. Iraq's main political blocs have been debating candidates for the premiership but have yet to name anyone.
Two key foreign officials have attended the talks, according to a senior political source -- Iran's pointman for Iraq Major General Qasem Soleimani and Mohammad Kawtharany, a leading power-broker from Lebanon's Hezbollah movement. Iran, in particular, wields tremendous sway among Iraqi political and military figures, especially the Hashed al-Shaabi paramilitary force.
But the protesters on the streets have publicly rejected what they say is Iran's overreach and have vented their anger against its diplomatic missions.
On Thursday, demonstrators were rattled by the sudden arrival of several thousand Hashed supporters in Baghdad's Tahrir (Liberation) Square, the epicenter of the protests. In an apparent show of force, the newcomers waved sticks, national flags, and the Hashed's emblem -- a symbol shunned by the vast majority of protesters. The Hashed's political arm, the Fatah bloc, had been one of the prime minister's main backers throughout the crisis but changed its tune after Sistani's call. The Hashed began publicly supporting the protests and Sistani on their social media pages -- while repeatedly claiming there were "infiltrators" within the crowds. Demonstrators have expressed doubts about the genuineness of the Hashed's support, saying Thursday's display was an attempt to "ruin" their non-partisan rallies. Apprehensive about a repetition on Friday, protesters said they would erect new checkpoints around the square overnight. Tahrir has become a melting pot of Iraqi society, occupied day and night by thousands of demonstrators angry with the political system in place since the aftermath of the US-led invasion of 2003 and Iran's role in propping it up.
- Photographer abducted -
Their public criticism of leading Iranian figures, including Soleimani, has broken a taboo and some among the protesters fear there will payback. Many in Tahrir keep their faces covered, saying they have been filmed or photographed by individuals that they suspect are "not real protesters."
They worry they could be kidnapped or worse if they are identified as having opposed Iran or its allies, or simply for taking part in anti-government rallies. Earlier this week, the bruised body of 19-year-old Zahra Ali was left outside her family home, after she went missing from the morning, her father said.
And on Friday, the relatives of Zeid al-Khafaji, a young photographer who had become well-known in the square, said he too had been kidnapped. They said he had been snatched from outside his home by unidentified men in SUVs as he was returning from Tahrir. Human rights groups have documented dozens of cases of abductions since October and Human Rights Watch this week accused the government of not doing enough to protect activists.

Lisbon Trip Offers Netanyahu Brief Escape From Drama
Lisbon- Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 6 December, 2019
In a brief escape from his legal and political struggles in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu enjoyed a leisurely excursion in Portugal, keeping a relatively light schedule and finding time to tour the capital and reminisce with reporters about his late father, who was an influential historian.
It could turn out to be a last respite as he returns to Israel to fight for his survival after a damning corruption indictment and two inconclusive elections that have left him clinging to power. Netanyahu, accompanied by his wife Sara, tried his best to project business as usual, holding a lengthy meeting with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that he called "critical to Israeli security." He also met with Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa to discuss joint projects and to thank him for taking a tough stance against anti-Semitism.
But with plenty of downtime on the two-day sojourn, he also managed to find diversions from some of the drama in Israel, where he faces calls to resign and a brewing rebellion in his Likud party ahead of a likely third election within a year. On a sunny, pleasant day, Netanyahu stopped by a lookout point on Thursday to take in a picturesque vista of Lisbon, greeting tourists along the way, and made a pilgrimage to a memorial for Jews who were massacred in the 16th century after the Spanish Inquisition. Before departing for home, he enjoyed a late-evening dinner with his wife at a fancy Lisbon restaurant.
Speaking to reporters earlier in the day, he refused to delve into his personal fortunes after Israel´s attorney general indicted him for fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes in three separate cases. But he vowed to carry on and denied his precarious status was taking a toll or that foreign leaders were treating him any differently because of it.
"I´m a little different from what people think of me," he said, in response to a question from The Associated Press. "I have struggles, but I´m different. It´s not because I am a robot. I am different in my ability to focus."Netanyahu appeared relaxed when reporters accompanying his trip stumbled upon him in central Lisbon as he was making an unannounced visit to the outdoor memorial for the nearly 2,000 Jews who were massacred on Apr. 19, 1506, in a pogrom that preceded the Portuguese Inquisition in which tens of thousands were killed or forced to flee. Most of the victims had fled years earlier from the more infamous Spanish Inquisition, of which his father - historian Ben-Zion Netanyahu - was a renowned expert. Wearing jeans and loafers, his hands stuffed into the pockets of an overcoat, Netanyahu asked about the memorial site outside the Sao Domingos church near Rossio Square before sharing his knowledge about the rich and tragic history of Portugal´s Jews. He said he´d been there before, 23 years earlier during his first term as prime minister, but never with his father, who passed away in 2012 at age 102. "My father isn´t available right now," he said with a shrug, when asked what Ben-Zion Netanyahu could have shared. But he did disclose how he once accompanied his father to an award ceremony in Spain - where he was honored in an inquisition torture room, no less - and where the Israeli prime minister was referred to merely as "Netanyahu´s son." But even on foreign soil, there were reminders of his scandals back home, where he has lashed out angrily at detractors and accused police, prosecutors and a biased media of orchestrating a "coup" to remove him from office. When an Israeli reporter jokingly asked which inquisition was worse, that against the Jews of Portugal or his own travails, he looked away and tried to change the subject. But his wife eagerly responded. "There´s something to that. I don´t reject the question, I´m glad you understand that this is an inquisition for us," Sara Netanyahu said. "We´ll find time to talk about this."The off-the-cuff comment drew swift condemnation in Israel from descendants of Spanish and Portuguese Jewish communities who said it showed contempt for Jewish suffering. Barring a last-minute reversal, new elections will be triggered in the coming week, and the gaffe offered yet another headache as Netanyahu returned home to face the toughest challenge of his lengthy career.

Saudi Military Student Kills Three at U.S. Navy Base
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 06/2019
A Saudi air force trainee opened fire Friday at a U.S. naval base, killing three people before being shot dead by police, with the Saudi king quickly offering his condolences to President Donald Trump. The shooting, which took place in a classroom building at Naval Air Station Pensacola in Florida, left eight people injured including two sheriff's deputies who responded to the attack. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said the shooter was from Saudi Arabia -- the same nationality as 15 of the 19 men involved in the 9/11 attacks, some of whom attended flight school in Florida. "There's obviously going to be a lot of questions about this individual being a foreign national, being a part of the Saudi air force and then to be here training on our soil," DeSantis told a press conference. "Obviously the government of Saudi Arabia needs to make things better for these victims. And I think they are going to owe a debt here given that this is one of their individuals." Commanding officer Timothy Kinsella said the shooter -- whose name authorities declined to release -- was an aviation trainee, one of "a couple hundred" foreign students present at the base. "King Salman of Saudi Arabia just called to express his sincere condolence sand give his sympathies to the families and friends of the warriors who were killed and wounded in the attack that took place in Pensacola, Florida," Trump tweeted. "The King said that the Saudi people are greatly angered by the barbaric actions of the shooter, and that this person in no way shape or form represents the feelings of the Saudi people."Police received their first call about the shooting shortly before 7:00 am (1200 GMT), Escambia County Sheriff David Morgan said. One of the responding deputies eventually killed the attacker, who used a handgun. "Walking through the crime scene was like being on the set of a movie," Morgan said. "You don't expect this to happen."Kinsella said the base's security forces first responded to the shooting before outside police agencies arrived. The facility, made up mostly of classrooms, was shut down until further notice. Witnesses described a chaotic scene as police rushed to respond. Federal agencies are investigating, authorities said, including the FBI and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.
- Military rarely targeted -
Just two days earlier, a US sailor fatally shot two people and wounded a third at the Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard in Hawaii before taking his own life. The Pensacola naval air station hosts 16,000 military personnel and more than 7,000 civilians, and is home to a flight demonstration squadron.
It is an early training center for naval pilots, and is known as the "cradle of naval aviation." The base is the center for the U.S. Navy foreign military training programs, established in 1985 specifically for Saudi students before being expanded to other nationalities. Saudi Arabia has long been a major U.S. ally in the Middle East, thanks primarily to security considerations and oil. While mass shootings in the United States are common, those at military facilities are rare. In July 2015, Mohammad Youssuf Abdulazeez carried out an attack at two military installations in Tennessee that killed four Marines and a sailor, with the FBI concluding that the violence was inspired by a "foreign terrorist group." Two years earlier, Aaron Alexis killed 12 people and wounded eight others at the Washington Navy Yard, just two miles (three kilometers) from the U.S. Capitol building, before being shot dead by officers. Four years before that, Major Nidal Hasan, a U.S. Army psychiatrist, killed 13 people and wounded more than 30 others at Fort Hood. He was considered a "lone wolf" who supported terror network Al-Qaeda. Supporters of tighter gun laws seized on the latest shooting. "Our veterans and active-duty military put their lives on the line to protect us overseas -- they shouldn't have to be terrorized by gun violence at home," Cindy Martin, a volunteer with the Florida chapter of Moms Demand Action whose daughter works at the naval base, said in a statement.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 06-07/2019
How the Israel-Iran war might begin
ياكوف كاتز/جيرازالم بوست: في حال وقعت الحرب بين إيران وإسرائيل هكذا ستبدأ
Yaakov Katz/Jerusalem Post/December 06/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/81186/%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b2%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85-%d8%a8%d9%88%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%ad%d8%a7%d9%84-%d9%88%d9%82%d8%b9%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%a5%d9%8a/
In the back of everyone’s mind there will be a constant and nagging question mark over what happens next. Everyone that is, except for Iran.
The missiles will come in low, after being in the air for almost an hour, and when they hit, they will be coming just over the horizon. People who witness the attack will remember later that the missiles didn’t fall from the sky. They flew at their target straight, like a bullet.
The drones will hit just a few minutes later. They will have been flying at low altitudes for longer, taking off in Iraq, crossing into Syria, and then across the border into Israel.
The “swarm” of drones and cruise missiles – as it will later be referred to – will have caught the country by surprise. By the time they strike, the target will be less relevant – the Haifa oil refinery, an apartment building in Kiryat Shmona, or a school in Katzrin.
This scenario, while fiction for now, is one that the IDF top brass is talking about on a regular basis these days. It is being played out in the minds of IDF generals and intelligence officials, responsible for watching Iran’s every move, from Tehran all the way to its proxies’ bases in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and the Gaza Strip.
The model is very similar to Iran’s attack against the Aramco oil facility in Saudi Arabia in September: within the span of 17 minutes, 18 drones and three low-flying missiles hit the facility with amazing precision. The ability to launch a coordinated cruise missile/drone attack that hit its target with precision (except for a few cruise missiles that missed) was an impressive feat. That Iran has this capability came as a surprise to many in America and Israel’s defense establishments.
That Iran would like to attack Israel is not a secret. Two weeks ago, an Iranian-backed militia in Syria fired four Fajr-5 rockets at the Hermon Mountain in Israel. The rockets were intercepted by Iron Dome batteries.
In August, Israel struck an Iranian-backed cell planning to launch explosives-laden drones into Israel from Syria. After both incidents, the Israeli Air Force carried out extensive retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets in Syria.
But what happens if Iran succeeds in hitting Israel with an Aramco-style attack? What happens if it hits a strategic installation and causes extensive economic damage or worse – loss of life? What will Israel do?
This question is at the heart of discussions within the defense establishment, and there are a number of possible answers, each with its advantages and disadvantages.
IF FOR example the cruise missiles and drones are launched from Syria, Yemen or Iraq, the easiest move is for Israel to simply retaliate against the cell that launched them, assuming it is able to quickly locate and identify the attackers.
On the other hand, while such a retaliation has tactical value – denying the cell the ability to continue firing missiles – what does it say about Israeli deterrence? If Iran knows that it can strike at Israel via proxies from other countries and not pay a direct price, what will stop it from continuing?
For that reason, another option would be for Israel to strike back directly at Iran and to deliver a decisive blow against the regime that would make the clerics there understand that there is a personal price to be paid for attacking Israel.
How would Israel do that?
Israel will likely need to rely on its Air Force, the backbone of which – the F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, F-16I Sufas and F-15I Raams – are specially configured for long-range bombing operations.
With some refueling, the planes would be able to fly to Iran, attack their targets and return. There are different routes: flying directly over Jordan and Iraq, over Saudi Arabia and Iraq, or along the Turkish-Syrian border. All have their advantages and disadvantages. Some are longer while others are more dangerous.
Israel could potentially use drones in such an attack. According to foreign reports, the Heron TP – Israel’s largest drone with the wingspan of a Boeing 707 – has the ability to carry missiles. How big and how much damage they can cause remains unknown. That is why while the drones – if they are even an option – might minimize the risk to pilots, their ability to cause extensive damage is limited.
For this reason, for example, Avigdor Liberman when he was defense minister, and Naftali Bennett before he became defense minister, both pushed for the IDF to develop additional long-range capabilities. Liberman tried to establish a missile corps in the IDF. At the time, the focus was on short-to-medium range that was not big enough to reach Iran, but that would have been the next stage.
Prior to being appointed defense minister, Bennett also raised the issue in security cabinet meetings and tried to push the military to think creatively about how it can deal decisive blows to far away enemies like Iran. Now, as defense minister, he can try to implement his vision.
EACH RETALIATORY option will directly impact the scope of the conflict that will follow. If, for example, Israel goes with option 1 and limits its strike to the missile launchers in Iraq, Syria or Yemen, there would likely be almost no response. Iran would understand that Israel needed to vent and would accept the follow-up blow.
If Israel goes with option 2 and strikes in Iran, an unprecedented move, it could lead to a regional war. Iran can activate its militias based in Syria, Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip and, of course, Hezbollah in Lebanon which has the ability to launch over 1,000 rockets and missiles a day against Israeli targets.
In theory, Iran also has the potential to launch its own long-range ballistic missiles toward Israel. While Iran has developed an impressive ballistic missile capability, they have never really been tested in combat. Will they be able to make the flight to Israel and accurately hit their targets? Maybe, maybe not. Either way, they would first have to make it through the Arrow, Israel’s ballistic missile defense system.
What would Israel target in such an attack against Iran? For purposes of deterrence, it might be enough to strike at a single symbolic target, like a military base. On the other hand, if you know that a massive war is coming, maybe it would be the right time to strike additional targets at the same time – nuclear facilities, missile depots and launchers, air force bases, navy ships. If there is already going to be a war, it might as well be worth it.
The same could be argued about Hezbollah. If the military assessment is that Hezbollah would attack Israel after such a strike, then the IDF would need to consider launching a preemptive strike against Hezbollah and hitting targets – its long-range missile arsenal, assuming Israeli intelligence knows where it is stored as an example - at the same time that an attack is launched against Iran. At least this way, if war with Hezbollah comes, Israel will have limited the Lebanese-based group’s ability to inflict damage.
WILL ANY of this happen? That is impossible to know. Based on the frequency of visits by top US military officials in the last few weeks - Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, head of the US Air Force Gen. David Goldfein, and CENTCOM chief Gen. Kenneth McKenzie were all here last month – there is coordination going on behind the scenes between the Pentagon and the IDF.
The same can be understood from the two phone calls Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently had with President Donald Trump, during which they discussed the threat from Iran as well as other “critical” regional issues.
The problem, though, is that anything Netanyahu does today will be seen as politically driven. If there is an attack in the coming weeks after Israel has gone to another election, then however Israel responds will be looked at through the prism of Netanyahu’s legal predicament. Did he decide to go to war to try and postpone his trial, or did he decide to contain a devastating attack to avoid a war that would incur casualties and possibly also a political price?
In the back of everyone’s mind there will be a constant and nagging question mark over what happens next. Everyone that is, except for Iran.
https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Editors-Notes-How-the-Israel-Iran-war-might-begin-610029

The Mullahs’ Losing Game
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 06/2019
When popular protests erupted in Iran’s top 100 cities, including the capital Tehran, last month, it soon became clear that the ruling elites were at pains to decide what was really going on.
The faction led by “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei started by dismissing the uprising as a déjà vu version of the protests that have punctuated Iran’s history since the 1979 revolution. The daily Kayhan, reputed to reflect Khamenei’s views, dismissed the uprising as “sporadic disturbances fomented by a handful of hooligans.” Khamenei himself saw it as “a bump on the road” to the “Great New Islamic Civilization” he says he is building.
The official media dismissed what it claimed was “a blind riot with no leadership.”
Pro-regime voices in the West mocked the whole thing as “a storm in the twitter cup” and pontificated that a few exiles campaigning for human rights would never be able to provide the leadership needed for a serious challenge to the Iranian government.
The remnants of the “reform seeking” faction tried to label the uprising as nothing but a protest against the tripling of the price of petrol.
Pro-Tehran lobbies abroad tried to promote a third version, claiming that while “hooligans” were leading the protests, the mass of the people who followed had no political grievances against the regime. They insisted that President Hassan Rouhani was trying to raise revenues to keep the ship of state afloat.
Almost no one in the ruling establishment bothered to ask why so many Iranians were prepared to risk their lives to make their voices heard and what could the regime do to address their grievances.
After initial hesitations the elite regained its unity by responding in the best, not to say the only way, it knows best, that is to say a brutal crackdown that claimed hundreds of lives and over 10,000 arrests.
The switch in approach to the uprising meant a change of narrative.
The “hooligans” were rebranded as “trained combatants armed by foreign powers” sent to turn Iran into “another Syria.” Khamenei’s top military aide, Major-General Hussein Salami, pushed hyperbole to the limit by claiming that Iran faced “a veritable world war.”
The claim that the uprising had no leadership was abandoned.
Khamenei asserted that “the evil Pahlavi family” was leading the riots with the People’s Mujahedin, or in his words Munafeqin, in tandem. The Khomeinist propaganda machine generated a new narrative: The Islamic Republic had faced an epic challenge, and succeeded in crushing it without the slightest concession let alone re-casting any of its domestic and foreign policies.
Nevertheless, although medium-term effects of the uprisings remain subject to speculation, its immediate result is already visible in a multifaceted retreat by the Khomeinist elite.
The first facet of that retreat is ideological.
Suddenly, all talk of conquering the world and creating the “Great New Islamic Civilization” is consigned to oblivion.
In an unusual speech, Khamenei spelled out the new gospel: “If Iranians wish to preserve their good life and security,” they should stick to the Islamic Republic.
Rouhani had said that around 70 percent of Iranians live in poverty while the remaining 30 percent “enjoy a prosperous life.” Now, Khamenei was making it clear that he looks to the “prosperous” 30 percent for support in keeping his regime. In his time, Khomeini had claimed that his revolution was for the “mass of the poor” which he designated with the term “dispossessed” (mustadhafin in Arabic and Persian.) Now Khamenei was saying that the term had been misunderstood.
Last week, Khamenei claimed in a fatwa, “The term dispossessed has been misinterpreted as poor and vulnerable people.” He added: “That is not correct; the dispossessed means the imams and the leaders of humanity.” Khamenei’s argument is that the 12 Imams, and by extension the clerics who are their heirs, have been dispossessed of their right to rule the world. Thus, when it comes to worldly affairs, the Islamic regime is not meant to help the poor and the vulnerable but to protect the “security and prosperity” of those who enjoy those blessings.
Translated into simple terms, Khamenei is calling on the “prosperous 30 percent” not to take their current well-being for granted and help the regime crush the mass of the poor who wish to upset the apple cart.
The revolution against the Shah was started, manned and led by middle classes that had emerged in his reign. The “ordinary masses” that is to say urban workers and peasants who might have fitted the term “dispossessed”, remained loyal to the Shah almost to the very end. The Shah wrongly believed that the newly created and increasingly prosperous urban middle classes would never challenge his regime. He feared a Communist-style revolution based on a workers-peasants alliance of the type Lenin or Mao Zedong imagined but never experienced.
The Shah thought that by giving land to peasants and granting workers a share in the profits of companies he would prevent such a revolution. He ignored the fact that the peasants who became landowners, albeit on small-scale, used their title deeds as collateral, to enter the capital market and within a generation joined the middle classes. Something similar happened to the top bracket of urban workers who invested their share of the profits to reach a middle class status.Now we know that the Shah never faced any danger from the mass of the poor. The danger to his regime came from urban middle classes that in any society do not remain content with economic prosperity and social freedoms for long; they always end up demanding political rights commensurate with their economic and social status. The best symbol of modern urban middle classes, or the bourgeoisie as the Marxists like to say, is Charles Dickens’ Oliver Twist who, the more he gets, the more he asks for.
Is Khamenei making a similar mistake albeit for different reasons?
The 30 percent he is counting on may remain loyal as long as he is able to keep the 70 percent “unhappy ones” on a tight leash. However, if he manages to crush the 70 percent, thus removing their threat, he would face the 30 percent’s increasing demands for social and political freedoms no clerical regime can grant. And, if he fails, the 30 percent in question will look for someone else who can do for them what the Khomeinist regime cannot. In either case, the “Supreme Guide” is playing a losing game.

Germany’s Political Crisis Will Unfold in Slow Motion
Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/December 06/2019
A German political crisis isn’t a raging, unstoppable, unpredictable forest fire: It starts with seemingly irreconcilable positions but then evolves into a tedious, detail-focused negotiation and, more often than not, a compromise.
That’s the direction things appear to be taking after the election of two determined leftists as co-leaders of the Social Democratic party (SPD), the junior member of Germany’s ruling coalition.
When Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans campaigned for the party leadership against Finance Minister Olaf Scholz and Klara Geywitz, they spoke scathingly about the coalition. Esken declared it had “no future.” The more cautious Walter-Borjans said he was “firmly convinced” it couldn’t meet the SPD’s demands. That probably helped them win the leadership election, in which only 54% of the party membership took part.
But their victory on Saturday, with just over half of the vote, doesn’t give them a mandate to pull the ailing party out of government. Such a momentous decision would have to be taken by the party conference set for this weekend. While surprises are possible, it’s more likely that the SPD will vote instead to amend the 2018 coalition agreement.
On Sunday, the new leaders spoke on German TV about the revisions they’d like to see. Walter-Borjans focused on the government’s climate package, now making its way through the parliament; he’d like a much higher carbon price than the currently envisaged 10 euros ($11) per ton of CO2 and, accordingly, higher spending to offset that price for low-income households.
Esken called for more infrastructure spending to make up for years of underinvestment at a communal level. Plugging that hole, estimated at more than 138 billion euros ($152 billion), would require deviating from the balanced budget policy of the senior coalition partner, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) — the famous “black zero.”
The new leadership duo, then, isn’t going to call for their party’s unconditional withdrawal from the coalition. What Walter-Borjans and Esken really want is to try to extract concessions from the CDU, using a two-year revision clause in the current coalition agreement to the maximum. Whether they have the leverage to get much is doubtful.
Both uncharismatic functionaries, they don’t have enough influence on their own party, especially its elite cadre made up of the heads of state governments and the parliamentary faction. The latter isn’t ready for a snap election that the SPD is highly likely to lose miserably. A split in the party as its senior politicians abandon a sinking ship is a fearful prospect for the new leaders, forcing them to go softer on Merkel than they perhaps would like.
The CDU, for its part, theoretically could try running a minority government (though that’s never been Merkel’s preference). Besides, it stands to come first in any early election, and perhaps to form a new ruling coalition with the Greens, completing the SPD’s descent into irrelevance.
So, as the new SPD leaders try to stake out a tough negotiating position, CDU politicians, starting with the party leader, Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, are doing the same, insisting that the revision clause doesn’t imply a renegotiation of the coalition treaty. This doesn’t mean the CDU won’t talk. It will aim to placate, if not the fiery Esken, then the SPD elite and broader membership, which gave a stronger vote of approval to the coalition deal last year (66% support on a 78% turnout) than to the new leadership duo at the weekend.
The behind-the-scenes bargaining has already begun, and it will affect the outcome of the weekend’s SPD conference. Scholz, whom the new leaders formally support as finance minister, has plenty of backers, especially among the party brass, and he’s not in favor of abandoning the black zero policy. This group within the SPD will work to prevent the conference from making this demand, a potential coalition-breaker. If the SPD’s final proposals stop short of such sweeping ambition, it wouldn’t be impossible for the CDU to allow some extra spending: Economic forecasts tracked by Bloomberg predict a German budget surplus of 1% of economic output this year.
What’s happening to the SPD is a tragedy for the party, whose new leaders hardly have the magnetism needed to draw voters back to a weakened, directionless political force. But it’s not a tragedy for the last Merkel government — at least not yet.
“We have started quite a lot of things, but there’s still much to do,” the chancellor remarked in a speech to parliament last week. “That’s why I believe we should work up to the end of the legislative period." Then she added: “I’m up for it. Great if you are, too.”
Though she’s acted increasingly tired and distant, she’s definitely capable of one last negotiation with her coalition partners to avoid disrupting the stability she’s proud to have brought to Germany. The opportunity is the SPD’s to waste, and the consequences of doing that would be largely the SPD’s to suffer.

A European Army? It’ll Never Happen
Andreas Kluth/Bloomberg/December 06/2019
As NATO allies gather near London, existential questions hover in the air above the swanky Grove Hotel: How long will we be around as an alliance? Do we still look united enough to deter aggressors? And can a “European army” spring up to supplement, perhaps even replace, our transatlantic league?
The short answer to that last question is no. Tragically, there won’t be a European army soon, or ever. European leaders should admit that honestly, and all members the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, above all the Americans, should accept that they’d better do their level best to dispel doubts about the alliance. The reality is that, for the foreseeable future, NATO is the only credible military shield Europe has.
The main culprit for this new anxiety is of course US President Donald Trump, whose “transactional” attitude toward NATO has spooked Europeans. He’s right to criticize cheapskates such as Germany for skimping on their military spending. But he’s irresponsible to imply that America’s commitment to Article 5 — which states that an attack against one member state is an attack against all — may be conditional. The main purpose of alliances is deterrence, and that requires unconditional assurances.
A second culprit, if you ask central Europeans, is French President Emmanuel Macron. It was his recent musing about NATO’s “brain death” and the brittleness of Article 5 that caused the current hand-wringing. That’s not because he said something wrong. It’s because, as French president, he shouldn’t have spoken so clearly.
That’s certainly what German Chancellor Angela Merkel seems to feel. She even told Macron that she’s sick of having “to glue together the cups you have broken so that we can then sit down and have a cup of tea together.” Strong tea for a pair that prefers to be seen cuddling.
And yet Merkel, like Macron, is also on record calling for Europeans to wean themselves from the US by creating “a real, true European army.” Those two ideas go together: The only theoretical answer to less American protection is more European self-defense.
That dream is as old as the European project. There were plans for a European army in 1952, drawn up by Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and West Germany. This was before postwar Germany was allowed to have soldiers again. West Germany’s parliament ratified the idea, but France’s nixed it, which led to the founding of a West German army in 1955, embedded into NATO. European integration followed an economic rather than a military path.
The complications that caused that stillbirth linger. The nations in what is now the European Union still care about their sovereignty, which is expressed above all in the decision to send young soldiers into harm’s way. They also have different interests. The French are busy in their former African colonies. The Poles and Balts feel most threatened by Russia. Germany, caring not a whit about all that, is merrily building itself a second gas pipeline to Russia, circumventing the eastern EU.
Member states also have dissonant historical traditions, which make integration into one command hierarchy almost impossible. Postcolonial France considers military action a legitimate tool of foreign policy, and its president has ample powers to direct its army. Germany, still atoning for World War II, disavows military interventionism. Unlike France, it has a “parliamentary army,” which must get explicit approval from the Bundestag to do anything. Would a French president patiently wait for the German legislature before deciding whether to shoot at little green men speaking Russian in an Estonian forest? Would 27 states cede that decision to Brussels?
The fundamental problem, as Jan Techau of the German Marshall Fund puts it, is distrust: The French and Germans don’t fully trust each other, the Italians trust neither of them, the Germans don’t even trust themselves, Warsaw distrusts Berlin, Bucharest and Budapest distrust each other, people in the Balkans don’t trust anybody, and so forth.
That’s why Macron is seen in central Europe as a neo-Gaullist. When he talks about “strategic autonomy” or “European sovereignty,” he seems mainly to be eager for France, the EU’s only nuclear power after Brexit, to lead Europe, snubbing its nose at the US and accommodating Russia. To advance that vision, he’s sponsored a fledgling alliance called the “European Intervention Initiative,” which is part of neither NATO nor the EU. Needless to say, the EU’s eastern members would much prefer to keep relying on the US.
All this helps explain why the EU’s new push for a “defense union” is not actually about integrating armies, but about creating a common market for weapons procurement. How very European. Exhibit A is a European Defense Fund, which will have 13 billion euros ($14.3 billion) to plow into weapons research. Exhibit B is a bureaucracy called PESCO, which aims to coordinate building and buying corvettes, helicopters, drones, and the like across the EU.
A common defense market is a good idea. But confusing markets with might is exactly the sort of pusillanimity that drives Macron crazy, and amuses Russian President Vladimir Putin. The biggest danger is that it might one day also tempt Putin or his ilk to test the West. They wouldn’t need to launch an all-out strike; a good dose of hybrid warfare might suffice to divide Europe. That, at least, is the upshot of scenario games now being played by think tanks. For the sake of peace, let everyone in the Grove Hotel this week remember what’s at stake.

Bread and Personal Freedoms
Amel Moussa/Asharq Al Awsat/December 06/2019
This Tuesday happens to be Human Rights Day. As we know, in principle and theory, almost everyone defends human rights, in practice, however, not as often.
We would like to approach this occasion by contemplating the status of human rights in the Arab and Islamic world, admitting from the outset that it differs from one country to another.
It is worth noting that the issue of human rights involves themes of the rights-based intellectual modernity dating back to the era of the French revolution and the moral and intellectual dimension that it represented. It is a fruit of modernity that was spread by the achievements of the scientific movement during the industrial revolution in England.
Therefore, the first stage of modern thought on human rights was specifically focused on what is called in law public freedoms. The world has yet to move to the struggle for personal freedoms. Of course, there is a structured relationship between public freedoms and personal freedoms, in that public freedoms pave the way for personal freedoms.
What we notice is that struggles for human rights are in conflict with the hegemony of institutions to achieve a better status for the individual and to limit its determinism and authority that renders every individual dependent on it. The term for such an individual in sociology is ‘social agent’.
Moving from a sociological discourse of social agent to social actor, and what changes that entailed in the relationship between the individual and social institutions, cannot be seen as an accomplishment already achieved, but as a process in itself that has several stages.
In our societies, we are still in the phase of defending a better status for the individual and searching for means to reduce the domination of institutions. This has coincided with attempts to consecrate public freedoms, the freedoms of groups, the basic unit of which being the individual. In other words, the idea that the individual is the primary social actor in its basic unit needs time to infiltrate mentalities and practices. I think, nevertheless, that strides have been made in that regard, despite all of the current shortcomings.
It would be unfair to marginalize the human rights movement that has been ongoing since the sixties in Arab countries and has gained more momentum in the last few years. It has become clear to everyone that the issue of human rights is inevitable and is the condition for international relations between the major powers and developing countries. In fact, trade deals and dealing with international monetary institutions have become conditioned on agreements on human rights and social and political development.
At the same time, however, and for the sake of being objective once again, we find that the human rights movement, especially the calls made by some figures among the Arab elite in terms of dedicatedly pursuing personal freedoms without limits, has stumbled on many obstacles.
It may seem at first that these hindrances against an honest discussion on personal freedoms are primarily cultural and are ultimately related to culture and the principle of cultural specificity. We would argue, however, that the importance of the cultural is less than it appears to be. The economic problems and hindrances to development in the majority of Arab and Islamic countries are what rendered the human rights struggle laden with difficulties and met with indifference.
What place is there for calling for personal freedoms while people are suffering from extreme poverty and unemployment?
Despite the importance of calls for human rights, the insistence of some intellectuals on personal freedoms and their focus on culturally shocking rights has created some distance between them and the frustrated youth suffering from economic violence and limited opportunities. This focus on issues that seem to the unemployed and impoverished as luxuries, rather than motivating discussion and dialogue is actually provocative.
Consequently, we think that bread stands as a real barrier against the development of a culture of freedoms in our countries and a critique of a valuable critique of our culture. This clearly means that any enlightenment in the domain of freedoms and cultural critique will have a short reach or will be rejected as long as our countries do not find a path towards economic development.
The hungry do not listen, the frustrated do not get excited, and the marginalized do not care. All that they want is to object. Therefore, the solution to the problem of bread and its modern equivalents that allow for a dignified life is a central condition for any projects for cultural change and Arab human rights by whoever advocates it.
This material analysis may be validly contested by many. Still, experience enriches thought and makes its bearers aware of strategies that could help relay ideas without necessarily ceasing to struggle for them.

Iran Is Losing Iraq’s Tribes
Phillip Smyth/The Washington Institute/December 06/2019
Angry over Iranian militia abuses and Baghdad’s sundry failures, a number of powerful tribes are setting aside their traditional sectarian loyalties and pushing to safeguard their basic needs, sometimes violently.
Between escalating nationwide protests and this weekend’s resignation of Prime Minister Adil Abdulmahdi, the latest events in Iraq have put a spotlight on the future of Iranian influence over Baghdad. Tehran is often depicted as a puppet master operating completely subservient Shia militias and other proxies in service of its goals in Iraq. Yet many of these actors also have tribal loyalties that are increasingly coming into conflict with their Iranian loyalties—partly in response to actions that proxy groups have taken against tribal leaders, and also because the militias have largely failed to provide adequate security or curb corruption. Thus, even as Tehran continues its bid to integrate and control the Iraqi government, the strength of Shia and mixed tribes may be a source of leverage over the proxies charged with carrying out that mission, including the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).
THE KHAFAJI CONUNDRUM
One of southern Iraq’s major Shia tribes, the Khafaja exemplify two key trends: how tribes tend to back the strongest horse, and how Tehran’s efforts to pressure them can backfire. During the rule of Saddam Hussein, elements of the Khafaja contributed thousands of fighters to his armed forces, both during the Iran-Iraq War and when their Shia coreligionists in the south launched a rebellion in 1991. Later, however, as the post-2003 U.S. occupation came to a close and the Syrian uprising escalated into war, numerous sections of the tribe began to align more closely with Iranian-backed organizations.
In 2012, for example, tribal cleric Sheikh Auws al-Khafaji split from Iraqi Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr and formed the Iranian-backed Quwat Abu Fadl al-Abbas (QAFA), a group used to recruit and deploy fighters in support of Syria’s Assad regime. Another top tribal figure, Sheikh Raad al-Khafaji, reportedly served as a commander in one of Iran’s most loyal and ideologically fervent proxies, the U.S.-designated terrorist group Kataib Hezbollah.
Yet the tribe’s attitude began to shift against such links in February 2019, when the PMF arrested Sheikh Auws and shut down QAFA. This militia crackdown was apparently spurred by his accusation that Tehran had been involved in assassinating fellow tribe member Alaa Mashzoub, a novelist known for criticizing Iranian interference in Iraq. Previously, QAFA had avoided publicizing tribal issues, while the outspoken Sheikh Auws had focused on sectarian and security matters. After his arrest, however, tribal concerns took center stage.
In Basra, for example, Khafaji leaders gave the central government a forty-eight-hour deadline to disclose the sheikh’s whereabouts and physical condition, while local tribal authority Adil al-Khafaji threatened to close down border posts with Iran in response to the arrest. The Baghdad section of the tribe called for his release as well, launching protests outside the Green Zone and near QAFA’s shuttered headquarters in the capital.
In May, the tribe announced that Sheikh Auws had been released and the charges against him dropped, but reconciliation with Tehran was hardly apparent. Two months later, the sheikh’s sister and her family were reportedly kidnapped in Ahvaz, Iran. Although they soon escaped their captors, the incident may have been Tehran’s way of warning him to be more cooperative, or at least passive. Far from backing down, however, the sheikh spoke out in support of the anti-government and anti-Iran protests that exploded throughout the country this fall, using his social media accounts to argue that the demonstrators have legitimate demands. Likewise, other members of the Khafaja tribe, particularly youths, have erected banners around Baghdad in support of the protests.
AWAKENING OF THE MIXED TRIBES
While certain tribes most relevant to this discussion are solidly Shia in composition, others are more mixed, with significant Sunni sections. Some of these tribes are now downplaying sectarian differences and adopting a more unified approach in response to mounting anger over Iranian/proxy pressure, a sense of neglect by Baghdad, and lingering worries about security.
The Khazraj. This tribe is based north of Baghdad in Salah al-Din province, with Shia members concentrated around Dujail and most Sunni members living near Tikrit. For reasons explored below, various members have had numerous run-ins with Iranian-controlled PMF elements.
In March 2015, Al-Arab reported that the Iranian-controlled militia Saraya Talia al-Khurasani (the PMF’s 18th Brigade) had kidnapped Khazraji tribespeople and killed an unknown number of Shia members. In response, local Khazraji residents kidnapped militia members.
Similar reprisals occurred when tribesman Hussein al-Faisal al-Khazraji, a lieutenant colonel in the Interior Ministry, was assassinated by “unknown gunmen” in July 2018. The killers were widely suspected to be members of Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), a top Iranian proxy that forms the PMF’s 41st, 42nd, and 43rd Brigades. When the colonel’s funeral procession returned from Najaf to Dujail, AAH kidnapped two prominent Khazraji sheikhs; they were later found executed. The incident sparked days of fighting that left four AAH members and three tribespeople dead. Khazraji leaders publicly called on AAH to pull out of Dujail and other Shia-majority tribal areas, arguing that the group’s forces should be replaced by Muqtada al-Sadr’s militia Saraya al-Salam—a clear message in support of Iran’s major Shia rival and the faction from which AAH splintered.
According to al-Quds al-Arabi, the clashes were only the latest episode in an overlooked conflict that the Khazraj and AAH had been fighting for at least a year. AAH reportedly assassinated multiple tribespeople affiliated with Saraya al-Salam and the Iraqi security forces. The group has also been accused of engaging in criminal activities targeting tribal members and their land holdings.
Despite reconciliation meetings between the antagonists, tensions persist today. In the words of one Shia Khazraj and former Saraya al-Salam fighter who wished to remain unnamed, “Even if it is calm with [Iran-backed groups in our areas], we no longer want them...Our protests deal with many issues...This issue is another of importance.”
The Shammar. Since 2016, members of this tribe have helped lead Iraq’s broader shift toward stronger tribal identity as a social and political focal point. One of the largest tribes in the Middle East, the Shammar’s influence extends through Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Syria, with Sunni and Shia members holding a diverse array of loyalties. For instance, some Shammar Shia became leaders in the most staunchly sectarian Iranian militias; some Sunni Shammar joined the Islamic State; other Sunnis joined anti-IS militias; and some shifted from supporting Free Syrian Army rebel factions in Syria to backing more tribally oriented militias that focus on protecting and projecting regional Shammar interests (e.g., Quwat al-Sanadid).
The latter shift carried over into Iraq proper, particularly after IS kidnapped more than thirty Shammar tribespeople and launched attacks in areas north of Baghdad in spring and summer 2018. When the central government and Iranian proxies failed to respond adequately to these incidents, it served as a tipping point for many Shammar.
Today, Hussein Alwan—a former fighter with Sadr’s Mahdi Army who held affiliations with multiple Iran-backed militias in the past—serves as a leader and spokesman for Shia Shammar seeking greater protection, services, and recognition from the Iraqi government. In a series of interviews with the author, he stated, “Sunni or Shia, we would do anything for our tribe...The army and the [PMF] are not doing enough for security...We are already commanders in these [PMF] groups, but we need a force of our own...to send a message.” In July 2018, sections of the tribe sent that message by forming Liwa Shammar Baghdad. Although this brigade has not been deployed militarily, its supporters continue to protest the tribe’s poor living conditions—a campaign that has led some Shammar to show up at recent mass demonstrations in Baghdad and other cities.
TRIBAL MOBILIZATION AND VIOLENCE
Apart from displaying support for the national protests, some tribal elements have played a major role in the uprising’s more violent strains. In Baghdad, Basra, Dhi Qar, and Maysan, these elements have taken the lead in crafting protest tactics, shutting down roads, and even retaliating against Iranian-backed groups.
The tendency toward vengeance arose after numerous protestors were killed by government security forces and Iranian-backed PMF units. Since then, tribal groups have come to define the confrontations in Baghdad, acting as the main voice pushing the government to rein in its forces and the PMF. In other instances, the response has been more forceful—on October 25, some tribespeople chose to avenge fallen members by burning more than a dozen Iranian-backed organizational headquarters across southern Iraq.
SADR’S GRIP SLIPPING?
Muqtada al-Sadr has attempted to act as the political face for those protesting Iranian influence and the government’s abuses. Yet while his influence over national politics is still potent, his control over his tribal allies may be more limited. The Baghdad slum of Sadr City—a core support zone for him, and home to thousands of tribespeople who moved from rural areas—has seen some of the heaviest protests. According to a November 20 New York Times report, a Sadr-linked protest leader relied on a network of tribal contacts to mobilize demonstrators there, as opposed to using Sadr’s own offices. Indeed, many of the rallies that shook Baghdad in mid-October were organized through such links after tribespeople were among those injured or killed earlier that month.
Questions about Sadr’s authority over Shia tribes also arose when an AAH commander and his brother were killed in Amara that same month following the reported deaths of ten protesters. According to some activists, the incident arose from clashes between Saraya al-Salam and AAH, indicating that certain members of his militia may be acting on their own out of concern for their local and tribal interests. Since then, Sadr has said he may call on Saraya al-Salam to “protect protests” while pushing demonstrators to maintain a nonviolent approach—perhaps an effort to reclaim his position among increasingly autonomous tribal factions. Such maneuvers may just increase the potential for violence, especially against a backdrop of longstanding Sadrist antipathy toward Tehran, tribal calls for vengeance, Abdulmahdi’s ouster, a lack of substantive changes, and heavy-handed security responses by Baghdad and Iranian proxies.
U.S. POLICY OPTIONS
In seeking creative ways to at least temporarily wean Shia and Sunni tribes away from Iran, policymakers should address the actual issues on which these factions are currently focused. For example, the United States has long concentrated on providing security and military solutions to the central government in Baghdad. Yet by broadening this focus to include retraining and equipping some sections belonging to local Shia tribes, Washington could do much more to demonstrate its soft and hard power while countering Iran’s.
Perhaps most important, a constant thread among disaffected Shia tribal groups has been the lack of services and jobs. In the past, many tribes created their own patronage networks within the Iraqi government in order to fulfill those needs, but they are increasingly being locked out. Iran’s growing patronage networks have not done much to satiate those needs either. In such a political environment, properly executed U.S. aid can go far, particularly via European, international, and vetted local NGOs that focus on training tribal figures in governance, service provision, and the supply of needed infrastructure equipment. This effort would require a more detailed focus in Washington, not just on the grand strategic level, but also at the town and village level.
Finally, U.S. officials should recognize that tribal issues are rarely addressed in Arabic-language publications and television programming. Elevating and publicizing these issues in independent U.S.-based/backed outlets such as Alhurra Iraq would give the tribes another voice. It would also show that U.S. involvement is much lighter and more considerate than Iran’s heavy-handed, often ineffective approach. ​
*Phillip Smyth is a specialist on Iranian proxy groups and a Soref Fellow at The Washington Institute, where he created the Shia Militia Mapping Project.