English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 06/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news

 

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Bible Quotations For today
The angel Gabriel Delivers the Godly Message To Virgin Mary
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 01/26-38/:”In the sixth month the angel Gabriel was sent by God to a town in Galilee called Nazareth, to a virgin engaged to a man whose name was Joseph, of the house of David. The virgin’s name was Mary. And he came to her and said, ‘Greetings, favoured one! The Lord is with you.’ But she was much perplexed by his words and pondered what sort of greeting this might be. The angel said to her, ‘Do not be afraid, Mary, for you have found favour with God. And now, you will conceive in your womb and bear a son, and you will name him Jesus. He will be great, and will be called the Son of the Most High, and the Lord God will give to him the throne of his ancestor David. He will reign over the house of Jacob for ever, and of his kingdom there will be no end.’Mary said to the angel, ‘How can this be, since I am a virgin?’The angel said to her, ‘The Holy Spirit will come upon you, and the power of the Most High will overshadow you; therefore the child to be born will be holy; he will be called Son of God. And now, your relative Elizabeth in her old age has also conceived a son; and this is the sixth month for her who was said to be barren. For nothing will be impossible with God.’Then Mary said, ‘Here am I, the servant of the Lord; let it be with me according to your word.’ Then the angel departed from her.
 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 05- 06/2020

The South Lebanese Army (SLA) and their Families Are Patriotics And Not Israeli Agents/Elias Bejjani/December 06/2020
Beirut experiences a historical hailstorm, leaving a white blanket for hours
Beirut Blast: Mystery over murder of two customs colonels killed three years apart
Tenenti: Lebanese authorities must ensure the safety and freedom of movement of UNIFIL
Mob seizes UN peacekeeper equipment in south Lebanon
Report: Charges of 'Embezzlement' Investigated at General Security Directorate
UK Embassy Says Rampling Leaving Lebanon for Family Reasons
Protesters Stage Sit-in Demanding Banks Release their Locked Funds
Lebanese President Accused of Violating Constitution to Expand Caretaker Cabinet’s Role
Donors Say Beirut's Recovery Will Cost $2.5 Billion
Renowned trumpeter Ibrahim Maalouf brings life to battered Beirut
Lebanon’s ‘hunger heroes’ bring food to people in need
 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 05- 06/2020

WHO Warns Virus Crisis Not over as Vaccine Rollout Approaches
Congress: US Bill Calls for Blacklisting Iraq’s Badr Organization
Gulf States Must Be Consulted in US Nuclear Deal with Iran, Says Saudi
Saudi FM Says Allies 'on Board' for Resolution of Gulf Crisis
Vessel Attacked off Yemen Coast, UK Maritime Trade Authority Said
Bahrain Says Won't Allow Imports from Israeli Settlements
Syrian Govt Document Submitted in Geneva Slams Everyone but Russia, Iran
Egyptian, US Presidents Discuss Regional Developments
Disputes Erupt over Formation of Partnership Council to Steer Sudan Transition
Trump Orders Most American Troops to Leave Somalia
Kuwait Holds Parliamentary Election under Shadow of Virus

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 05- 06/2020

Erdoğan's New Charm Offensive: Bogus Democratic Reforms/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/December 05/2020
The G20 Summit in Riyadh and Developments on the Global Economic Scene/Dr. Thamer Mahmoud Al-Ani/Asharq Al-Awsat/ December 05/2020
Amr Moussa: Current Developments in Lebanon Tied to Rafik Hariri’s Assassination/Cairo /Asharq Al-Awsat/ December 05/2020
A shot in the arm … but whose?/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/December 05/2020
Who killed Iran’s nuclear mastermind … and why now?/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/December 05/2020
If Iran doesn’t want to get burnt, stop stoking the flames/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/December 05/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 05- 06/2020

The South Lebanese Army (SLA) and their Families Are Patriotics And Not Israeli Agents
Elias Bejjani/December 06/2020
Our video today addresses the unfair, slander, injustice and false tag accusations that are harshly inflicted on the South Lebanese Army members (SLA) and their families who are in reality and by all standards patriots and heroes and not Israeli agents.
This intentional misrepresentation forged by the leftist coalition regrouped under the umbrella of the “ National Movement “ الحركة الوطنية during the war interlude of 1972-1990, who fought against the SLA and the “Lebanese Front” political parties for years in a bid to occupy Lebanon, massacred Lebanese and strove to erect a surrogate Palestinian State in Lebanon...
All these Arabists, leftists, Palestinians and Jihadists who supported or fought under the National Movement were and most probably still see the patriotic SLA members as enemies and according tagging them as traitors reflects their hostile and anti-Lebanese vicious agendas.
These deliberate misrepresentations and slandering are quite understandable on the part of the National movement, الحركة الوطنية but adamantly rejected when stated by politicians, public activists, journalists and individuals originally affiliated with the Lebanese Front political formations." الجبهة اللبنانية,.
SLA was part of the Lebanese Front, fighting for the same cause and along the same principles and logged a heavy record of 2000 martyrs ....
Meanwhile many SLA soldier were and still are members in most of the Lebanese Christian political parties.
In summary, any tagging of SLA on the part of the former Lebanese Front affiliates, is an insult to the cause they have been fighting for, a besmirch to its legacy, an utter disgrace to all those who convey it and a pathetic act of licking the rasp.
 

Beirut experiences a historical hailstorm, leaving a white blanket for hours
Jennifer Bell and Rawad Taha, Al Arabiya English/Saturday 05 December 2020
Lebanon's capital Beirut and the surrounding suburbs experienced what meteorologists named a "historical hailstorm," which covered the capital in a white blanket for hours, causing massive floods and impeding traffic on the major coastal highway. Al Arabiya English reached out to Elias Saadeh, founder of Lebanon Weather Forecast, who mentioned that Saturday's phenomenon is due to severe supercell clouds. It lasted around an hour, coupled with severe thunderstorms and heavy hailstones. "This supercell affected only the coastal area around Beirut and its suburbs. A supercell effect is always local. Weather stations in Beirut recorded 50mm of rainfall in a lapse of 25 minutes. This quantity is considered enormous since it is equivalent to pouring 50 liters of water in each square meter in 25 minutes. Moreover, this supercell caused a drastic drop in temperature from 21°C to 13.5°C in a couple of minutes," added Saadeh. Saadeh added that supercell was formed because of favorable environmental atmospheric conditions, including but not limited to the variation in temperature between the sea surface temperature and the temperature in the upper levels of the atmosphere. "The updraft and downdraft flows became organized and twisted around and reinforced each other. The updraft speed might have reached around 30 meters per second, explaining the size of hailstones recorded," he added.
Saadeh elaborated that historically, and according to available captures of the previous severe hailstorms, the last time Beirut witnessed a similar event was in the year 1968. Similar captures were taken showing the hail accumulations all over the capital and sometimes snow accumulations during the years 1920, 1943, 1963, and 1968. The heavy hailstorm in Beirut has prompted prayers and messages of support from residents to those whose homes still bear the devastating hallmarks of massive blast that battered the city in August. As people took to social media on Saturday showing streets, cars and homes covered in a white icy sheet, many commented that their hearts go out to those who continue to live in homes ravaged by the explosion. One Twitter user commented: “Think of all the people whose homes were damaged in the blast who can’t afford to repair them properly, now having to cope with icy cold.”
Another wrote on the social media platform: “My joy at seeing this much hail in Beirut for the first time in ages lasted but a few minutes; and then I thought of all those who are still without doors, or even homes, during such weather.”
“May they be safe and warm and may those who deprived them the joys of winter suffer.”A local resident write on Twitter that the scene felt “apocalyptic” and “like a disaster movie.”The August 4 explosion of hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate stored at Beirut port killed more than 190 people, wounded thousands and ravaged large parts of the capital. The explosion left tens of thousands of apartments damaged and an estimated hundreds of thousands of residents temporarily displaced. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimated at the time that some 47,000 apartments were damaged or destroyed in the blast.

Beirut Blast: Mystery over murder of two customs colonels killed three years apart
Rawad Taha, Al Arabiya English/Saturday 05 December 2020
About four months after the Beirut port blew up, a retired customs officer, Mounir Abu Rjeily, was found dead, on Wednesday, in Qartaba area (northern Lebanon). A forensic evidence team came to the crime scene and began investigations, which raised many questions, mainly since a completely similar crime occurred three years ago. Its investigation did not lead to any results. Shortly after the murder of Colonel Mounir Abu Rjeily, pictures of the Colonel have surfaced online with Colonel Joseph Skaf. He was mysteriously killed in a similar crime three years ago. Sources confirmed to Al Arabiya English that the two had a close relationship. After the Beirut port explosion, a leaked document showed that Skaf was the first to warn of ammonium nitrate danger. On February 21, 2014, he had a telegram directed to the Ministry of Finance's Audit and Search for Smuggling department. He stated that it is necessary to remove the ship carrying ammonium nitrate outside the Beirut port. Friends and family of Skaf have raised concerns that the death of their beloved was not an incident but instead had a direct correlation with whoever wanted to store the Ammonium Nitrate at the port.
After the killing of Skaf, two forensic doctors assigned by the Public Prosecution to examine the body issued two contradictory reports. One of the two reports indicated that what happened was a fate and that his foot had slipped. The second report confirmed that Skaf was pushed on purpose from a height of three meters. Georges Hayek, Member of the Central Council of the Lebanese Forces, considered that the killing of Colonel Mounir Abu Rjeily, former head of anti-smuggling in customs, does not appear to be a mere coincidence. "It is not a coincidence that there is a friendship between Abu Rjeily and Colonel Joseph Skaf, who died suspiciously, they knew about the corridors of the port until they were killed in a mafia way. An international investigation is required," Hayek added. "What is behind the killing of Colonel Mounir Abu Rjeily, former head of anti-smuggling in the Lebanese Customs? Is this horrific event to disrupt any serious investigation into the bombing case in the Beirut port?" Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt tweeted. Resigned Member of the Lebanese Parliament Neemat Frem tweeted: "We want answers from the state on the killing of a retired customs colonel, Mounir Abu Rjeily, and the killing of Colonel Joseph Skaf, whose investigation has not concluded since 2017! Analyzing the clues of the two incidents and their possible relationship to the port explosion is important for extracting hypotheses and reaching justice for the people and the families of the victims - if there is any link!"
Despite the controversy, sources close to the judicial and security personnel in charge of the Beirut port explosion's investigation said there was no correlation between the two events and the explosion, reported a local newspaper. "Preliminary data have indicated that the crime of killing him was motivated by theft. The victim probably resisted the suspects, and they killed him, revealing that the house's belongings were scattered. The suspects also stole two televisions from the victim's house," the newspaper added.

Tenenti: Lebanese authorities must ensure the safety and freedom of movement of UNIFIL
NNA /December 05/2020
UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti said that group of civilians stopped a UNIFIL convoy in Kawtharia Al-Sayyad village in southern Lebanon. In a press release by UNIFIL on Saturday, it said: "On 4 December, a UNIFIL convoy was stopped by a large group of civilians in the village of Kaouthariyet El Saiyad in southern Lebanon while driving back to its base in UNIFIL's area of operation. The civilians dispossessed the UNIFIL patrol of items and equipment. LAF was dispatched to the area and after taking control of the situation the UNIFIL convoy was able to leave the village although the equipment was not returned to the peacekeepers.Incidents such as these have been strongly deplored by the UN Secretary-General and by the UN Security Council. UNIFIL's full freedom of movement and the security and safety of its personnel is integral to the effective execution of its tasks. It is incumbent on the Lebanese authorities to ensure the safety, security and freedom of movement of UNIFIL troops. UNIFIL and LAF are investigating the circumstances of the incident."

Mob seizes UN peacekeeper equipment in south Lebanon
AFP/December 05, 2020
“A large group of civilians... dispossessed the UNIFIL patrol of items and equipment,” a statement said. The area where the equipment was seized is a bastion of the Shiite movement Hezbollah
BEIRUT: A mob seized equipment from a UNIFIL convoy in south Lebanon after blocking its route, the UN peacekeeping force said Saturday of its latest run-in with the local population. The incident, which required the intervention of the Lebanese army, took place on Friday as the UNIFIL convoy passed through the village of Kaouthariyet Al-Saiyad on the way back to base, according to the statement. “A large group of civilians... dispossessed the UNIFIL patrol of items and equipment,” the statement said, without specifying what was taken. Lebanon and Israel are still technically at war, and the United Nations force patrols the border between the two. The convoy was able to leave the village after the army intervened, “although the equipment was not returned to the peacekeepers,” the statement added. The seizure of UNIFIL equipment by civilians is rare, but sporadic incidents take place between the force and members of the local population, who sometimes block patrol routes. The area is a bastion of the Shiite movement Hezbollah, which is a heavyweight in Lebanese politics and sworn enemy of neighboring Israel. Set up in 1978, UNIFIL was beefed up after a month-long devastating war in 2006 between Israel and Hezbollah. The 10,500-strong force, in coordination with the Lebanese army, is tasked with monitoring a cease-fire and Israeli pullout from a demilitarised zone on the border. In August, the Security Council extended UNIFIL’s mandate by one year.

Report: Charges of 'Embezzlement' Investigated at General Security Directorate
Naharnet/December 05, 2020  
The General Security Directorate launched an investigation about two weeks ago into embezzlement accusations in the agency, and arrested two officers suspected of being involved in misappropriation of public funds including passport fees and residency visas, media reports said Saturday.
The total sum of public funds embezzled has not been determined yet, according to reports, but estimates say it could total to billions of Lebanese pounds. Investigation is focusing on the gaps that allowed this to happen, added the reports. According to information, the process has been ongoing for several years now. A number of officers, one is a retired sergeant, reportedly associated with the corruption network have been questioned. General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim said in telephone remarks to al-Akhbar daily that the “Directorate opened an investigation under the supervision of competent judicial authority,” noting that “no details can be revealed before the investigation concludes.” Ibrahim said a statement is going to be issued at the end when the suspects are referred to the judiciary. MP Jamil Sayyed had spoken to media outlets of embezzlement in the Directorate worth of more than 14 billion Lebanese pounds. The Directorate issued a statement after that, explaining that “secret investigation was launched ten days ago with some suspected military personnel, under competent judiciary in order to determine the perpetrators and the value of the embezzled sums, if any.”

UK Embassy Says Rampling Leaving Lebanon for Family Reasons
Naharnet/December 05, 2020  
The British embassy in Lebanon clarified in a statement on Saturday that its ambassador to Lebanon, Chris Rampling, will leave Lebanon back to the UK in December and that his departure is due to family reasons. The embassy assured in a statement that “the British government will continue to enhance stability and security in Lebanon and the region, and a successor to the ambassador will be announced at a later time.” On a decision to withdraw the families of diplomats, the embassy said that some family members accompanying employees at the British embassy in Lebanon are leaving because of the difficult conditions prevailing for several months now, but added “this however will not change Britain’s commitment to support Lebanon’s stability.”

Protesters Stage Sit-in Demanding Banks Release their Locked Funds
Naharnet/December 05, 2020  
Dozens of Lebanese protesters held a sit-in on Saturday in Beirut’s main Martyr’s Square complaining about the local banks’ policies, amid a deepening economic and financial crisis gripping the country. The protesters later moved their sit-in near to the Association of Banks in Lebanon. Lebanon is facing an unprecedented economic and financial crisis that has seen a sharp devaluation of the local currency after more than 20 years of being pegged to the dollar. The protesters, mainly savers with US dollar accounts demanded banks to return their lifetime savings the “same as deposited.”Savers with dollar accounts can not access their money. Parents are unable to transfer tuition fees to their children studying abroad, who in turn are finding it more difficult to live without cash. Protests against an incompetent political class erupted in October last year accusing leaders of corruption and mismanagement. Banks imposed unprecedented capital controls to protect their deposits amid a deepening confidence crisis.

Lebanese President Accused of Violating Constitution to Expand Caretaker Cabinet’s Role
Beirut - Mohamed Choucair/Asharq Al-Awsat/ December 05/2020
A former Lebanese prime minister has criticized President Michel Aoun who has called for a greater role for the caretaker cabinet in dealing with the country’s economic situation. The ex-PM, who refused to be identified, told Asharq Al-Awsat in remarks published Saturday that Aoun is seeking to change the interpretation of the constitution or the Taef Accord to try to circumvent international pressure to swiftly form a new government. Aoun’s call was made during an extraordinary meeting of the Higher Defense Council that he chaired at Baabda Palace on Thursday.
“The current situation in the country is an extraordinary situation that requires an extraordinary follow-up and taking decisions to deal with this delicate situation,” he said. The cabinet “is serving in a caretaker capacity. But the current circumstances require some expansion of the caretaker work in order to meet the needs of the country and citizens until a new government is formed,” he added. But the former prime minister accused Aoun of acting as the head of a revolutionary council and rejecting to abide by the constitution. In his proposal to expand the role of the caretaker cabinet, the president is planning to transfer the authorities of the executive authority to the Higher Defense Council, he said. Following Aoun’s statement, Lebanon’s former prime ministers have engaged in consultations with PM-designate Saad Hariri for an appropriate response, he added. A source in the opposition also told Asharq Al-Awsat that Aoun is setting the stage for a coup on the Taef Accord. Aoun’s call on the caretaker cabinet of Hassan Diab to act to tackle the country’s problems came a day after an international conference to drum up humanitarian aid to Lebanon urged rival parties to act to quickly form a new credible government tasked with enacting reforms. But Hariri has so far been unable to form the cabinet of experts to implement reforms, a major condition by the international community to release billions of dollars in promised international assistance to Lebanon.

Donors Say Beirut's Recovery Will Cost $2.5 Billion
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 December, 2020
International donors Friday laid out a $2.5-billion response plan to the devastating port blast in Beirut in August, urging reforms in the crisis-hit country. The European Union, United Nations and World Bank published the plan four months after the country's worst peacetime disaster on August 4 that killed more than 200 people, wounded thousands and ravaged a huge part of Beirut. They said the roadmap for the next 18 months was to both help the most vulnerable people with international grants and focus on reconstruction funded by loans and private funds hand-in-hand with sweeping reforms. "The priority needs of the people-centered recovery track amount to $584 million, of which $426 million are needed for the first year," said a report on the roadmap. "The costs for the reform and reconstruction track are estimated at $2 billion."But those behind the plan warned international support for the reconstruction would "depend on the government's ability to demonstrate credible progress on reforms". In particular, "efforts should include the forensic audit of the central bank, banking sector reform, capital control, exchange rate unification and creation of a credible and sustainable path to fiscal sustainability," the report said. This would be essential to secure private funding and public sector loans, it added. The EU, UN and World Bank requested a long list of urgent measures, including a "transparent investigation" into the port blast, and the enacting of "a new Port Sector Law, addressing the port authority´s operations as well as customs". Lebanon is mired in its worst economic crisis in decades. The value of the local currency has plummeted against the dollar, prices have soared and poverty has risen to more than half the population. Lebanon's government resigned after the August explosion, but talks have stalled to form a new cabinet essential to start reforms towards unlocking billions in desperately needed financial aid. Last month, an international firm pulled out from a forensic audit of the central bank after it did not receive data needed for the mission. An investigation into the blast launched by Lebanese authorities has led to the arrest of 25 people, including top port and customs officials, but no conclusions have been drawn yet.

Renowned trumpeter Ibrahim Maalouf brings life to battered Beirut
Reuters/Sunday 06 December 2020
Renowned jazz trumpeter Ibrahim Maalouf delighted crowds on Friday with a concert in Beirut, bringing life to an area battered by Lebanon’s economic meltdown and the catastrophic Aug. 4 port explosion. “Because of what is happening now in the region and in Lebanon, it makes it even more important to be here, to play music in the streets, in the venues,” Maalouf, a French-Lebanese citizen born in Beirut, told Reuters. Maalouf, 40, helped raise some 2 million euros for Lebanon with a charity concert in France after the August explosion which killed some 200 people and hit swathes of the capital, including the Beirut Souks area where he performed on Friday. The audience wore masks to guard against COVID-19 at the concert, part of the annual Beirut Chants Festival, a series of free performances held before Christmas. Lebanon is in the throes of an economic collapse that has paralyzed its banks and crashed the currency, fuelling poverty, unemployment and a brain drain. “We need something like this now in order to eventually get back up from what we’ve fallen into, and hopefully soon we’ll see more of these events with artists, to be able to revive Lebanon once again,” said Rony Challita, who attended.

Lebanon’s ‘hunger heroes’ bring food to people in need
Alicia Buller/Arab News/December 05, 2020
Maya Terro’s FoodBlessed promotes positive change by nourishing individuals, communities and public institutions
Terro’s volunteers offer meals to those left vulnerable by Lebanon’s banking crisis and the coronavirus pandemic
DUBAI: Preparing over a million meals is no mean feat, but it is an even more extraordinary endeavor when achieved solely through the power of volunteers, donations and the salvaging of over 200 tons of food waste.
Since it was established eight years ago after Maya Terro and her team won a competition, the Beirut-based social enterprise FoodBlessed has grown steadily and organically.
“I was able to turn my passion for food and my pursuit of empowering others into a humanitarian mission that nourishes individuals, communities, and public institutions to promote positive change in their country — one meal at a time,” said Terro, executive director of FoodBlessed.
After raising $2,600 through a fundraising initiative during the holy month of Ramadan, the company began to divert food from landfills, feed hungry people throughout Lebanon, and use food to “build communities and tackle loneliness.”
“We believe that food is an act of love, for the planet and its people,” Terro said. “In the long term, we strive to create a cultural shift fueled by mindful consumption. It is only when people see and appreciate the value of food that they will they stop wasting it and start sharing it.”
As a community-based and volunteer-driven initiative, FoodBlessed relies heavily on the help and generosity of volunteers and monetary and in-kind donations.
Maya Terro
The coronavirus pandemic has naturally had a negative effect on the country’s economy and, subsequently, access to food. Over 3,000 community volunteers (otherwise known as “hunger heroes”) have signed up to be part of the solution.
“The current broken Lebanese economy will probably need a minimum of five years to recover,” said Terro. “In this period, we will be diligently working on providing food assistance to Lebanese families across the whole of Lebanon on a weekly basis, be it through a meal or a food parcel.
“One food parcel costs us $19 and is enough to provide food sustenance to a family of four for between three to four weeks. To date, we have successfully distributed 5,000 food parcels across the whole of Lebanon.”
Human compassion is at the forefront of FoodBlessed’s values. Alongside its work with food, the organization aims to help vulnerable communities, including refugees, domestic migrant workers and single mothers — all made possible thanks to its extended network of NGOs, partners, and community members.
IN NUMBERS
5,000 Food parcels distributed in Lebanon by FoodBlessed.
$19 Cost to FoodBlessed of one food parcel.
FoodBlessed also works on rebuilding the dignity of those in need in the way they deliver the food. Terro said: “Instead of lining up for food, like in most humanitarian relief settings, our guests are invited to sit down at our table and made to feel at home.”
However, FoodBlessed’s success has not come without its challenges. Within the first year of starting up, both of Terro’s teammates left, leaving her to manage the company on her own.
“The key to success is self-belief and being true to oneself. Turning rejections into motivations, and embracing one’s difference and uniqueness is the only way to make it in the world,” she said.
“Sadly, the majority of people, including sometimes the people closest to you, will judge you and often mistaken your diligent determination for ego or for aggressiveness. Nevertheless, I urge you to never lose hope.”
• This report is being published by Arab News as a partner of the Middle East Exchange, which was launched by the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Global Initiatives to reflect the vision of the UAE prime minister and ruler of Dubai to explore the possibility of changing the status of the Arab region.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 05- 06/2020

WHO Warns Virus Crisis Not over as Vaccine Rollout Approaches
Agence France Presse/December 05, 2020
The World Health Organization has warned that vaccines will be no magic bullet for the coronavirus crisis as nations gear up for a massive rollout to tackle surging infections. The word of caution comes as the United States clocked a record number of Covid-19 cases for a second day in a row, with the country preparing for what US President-elect Joe Biden has called a "dark winter". America's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday recommended "universal face mask use" indoors and Biden said he would scale down his January inauguration ceremony to mitigate the virus risk. It comes as countries prepare for the approval and rollout of several vaccines that have proven effective in trials. The WHO however warned against vaccine complacency on Friday and what it said was an erroneous belief that the Covid-19 crisis is over with jabs on the horizon. "Vaccines do not equal zero Covid," said WHO emergencies director Michael Ryan, adding that not everyone will be able to receive it early next year. "Vaccination will add a major, major, powerful tool to the tool kit that we have. But by themselves, they will not do the job." WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said progress on vaccines signaled "light at the end of the tunnel." But he cautioned against the "growing perception that the pandemic is over" with the virus still spreading fast, putting enormous pressure on hospitals and health care workers.
- Massive logistical effort -
The WHO says 51 candidate vaccines are currently being tested on humans, with 13 reaching final-stage mass testing. Britain on Wednesday became the first Western country to approve an inoculation, from Pfizer-BioNTech, for general use, piling pressure on other countries to swiftly follow suit. The United States is expected to give a green light later this month. Belgium, France and Spain have said jabs will begin in January for the most vulnerable. With the imminent arrival of vaccines that need storage at ultra-low temperatures, US companies are preparing for a massive logistical effort to aid their distribution. Firms specializing in insulating containers are on a war footing after Pfizer and BioNTech said their vaccine needs to be stored at -94 degrees Fahrenheit (-70 Celsius). Meat processing giant Smithfield said it was ready to put the cold rooms at its abattoirs at the disposal of rollout operations. And US logistics giant UPS is producing 1,100 pounds (500 kilograms) of dry ice an hour in its depots and has developed portable freezers capable of storing the vaccines at temperatures down to -112 Fahrenheit.
'Follow the science'
Standing in the way of success are growing signs of vaccine skepticism, with misinformation and mistrust coloring public acceptance of inoculation. Several high-profile figures have pledged to receive the vaccine in public in an effort to build confidence, including Biden, Tedros and former US presidents Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton. The United States recorded 225,000 new infections on Friday -- the second daily record in a row for the world's worst-hit nation. Biden said the surging number of cases meant he would scale back his inauguration ceremony set for January. "We're going to follow the science and the recommendations of the experts," Biden told reporters. "So it's highly unlikely there'll be a million people on the mall."
Christmas spike expected
More than 65 million people have contracted Covid-19 globally with the death toll from the disease topping 1.5 million. British medical chiefs said the arrival of a vaccine should see deaths reduce "significantly" by early next year but warned social mixing over Christmas could cause another spike before then. "By spring the effects of vaccination will begin to be felt in reducing Covid admissions, attendances and deaths significantly but there are many weeks before we get to that stage," they said. Italy is seeing a dramatic resurgence of infections after it largely tamped down an earlier outbreak by enforcing a strict lockdown, while Latin America and the Caribbean has seen an 18 percent spike in cases in a week. Other countries are unveiling holiday restrictions, with Switzerland banning Christmas carolling in the streets and Madrid canceling most New Year events in the city centre.
 

Congress: US Bill Calls for Blacklisting Iraq’s Badr Organization
Washington - Rana Abtar/Asharq Al-Awsat/ December 05/2020
The US Congress is seeking to enact new legislation that would sanction Iraq’s Badr Organization. A copy of the bill, which was obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, says the organization is a political party that backs the Khomeinist revolution in Iran and hopes to import it to Iraq. It says that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and the Quds Force provide training, funding and arms to the group, which works directly with Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, and many other designated terrorist organizations. The bill says that the Badr group is currently led by Hadi Al-Amiri, who has been identified as one of the organizers of the 2019 US embassy attack in Iraq. The Organization, according to the bill, is responsible for deadly attacks that have targeted Americans and their allies in Iraq, for human rights violations in Iraq, and for the execution of Sunni prisoners.
The legislation requires the US government to disclose whether US aid has directly or indirectly benefited the Badr Organization.

Gulf States Must Be Consulted in US Nuclear Deal with Iran, Says Saudi
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 5 December, 2020
The Gulf states must be fully consulted if a US nuclear agreement with Iran is revived, Saudi Arabia said Saturday, warning it is the only path towards a sustainable agreement. "Primarily what we expect is that we are fully consulted, that we and our other regional friends are fully consulted in what goes on, vis a vis the negotiations with Iran," Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told AFP.

Saudi FM Says Allies 'on Board' for Resolution of Gulf Crisis
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 5 December, 2020
A resolution of the Gulf diplomatic crisis is in sight, with all nations involved "on board" and final agreement expected soon, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told AFP Saturday. Until recently the three-year dispute -- pitting a group of regional nations against Qatar -- had appeared intractable, but Prince Faisal said in an interview on the sidelines of a security conference in Bahrain that a breakthrough was imminent. "We are in full coordination with our partners in this process and the prospects that we see are very positive towards a final agreement," he told AFP, adding that "the eventual resolution will involve all parties concerned". "What we envision is a resolution that covers all aspects and is satisfactory to all parties involved," he said when asked whether the dispute was headed for a full settlement, adding that it would happen "soon". Saudi Arabia led its allies the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt to cut ties with Qatar in June 2017, saying it was too close to Iran and funding radical Islamist movements -- charges it staunchly denies. They subsequently forced out Qataris residing in their countries, closed their airspace to Qatari aircraft and sealed their borders and ports, separating some mixed-nationality families. Analysts had said that any breakthrough would likely only extend to ties between Riyadh and Doha, excluding the UAE in particular, which has been the most vocal critic of Qatar since the crisis began. Prince Faisal indicated however that a much broader thaw is being negotiated -- although Abu Dhabi and Manama have yet to weigh in on the progress of efforts to resolve the crisis. In the interview, Prince Faisal also set out the region's intentions on the prospects of a new US nuclear agreement with Iran, following president-elect Joe Biden's defeat of President Donald Trump. He said that the Gulf states must be fully consulted if the process is revived, warning it is the only path towards a sustainable agreement. "Primarily what we expect is that we are fully consulted, that we and our other regional friends are fully consulted in what goes on, vis a vis the negotiations with Iran," he said. As Saudi looks ahead to building a relationship with the incoming US administration, the minister said he was confident Biden's pledge to turn the kingdom into a "pariah" over its human rights failings was just election talk. "I think electioneering brings out all kinds of comments, and I'll leave them at that," he said. Prince Faisal also indicated the kingdom would maintain relations with Trump -- after four years of extremely warm ties, notably between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. "The kingdom always remembers its friends," he said. "And of course we will continue to have, I'm sure, friendly contacts with President Trump."

Vessel Attacked off Yemen Coast, UK Maritime Trade Authority Said
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 5 December, 2020
A vessel was attacked off the coast of war-torn Yemen, a UK-based maritime organisation said Saturday, days after an explosion rocked an oil tanker docked at a Saudi port. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), citing reports from ships in the vicinity, said it was aware of an attack late Friday against a merchant vessel, without giving further details. It later released a statement the incident was over. "Incident is now complete. Vessel and crew are safe." The report comes 10 days after a Greek-operated vessel docked at Saudi Arabia's port of Shuqaiq was rocked by an explosion in an attack that a Riyadh-led military coalition blamed on Yemeni rebels. The November 25 blast on the Maltese-flagged Agrari tanker followed a string of attacks by the Iran-linked Huthi rebels on Saudi oil infrastructure, highlighting the growing perils of a five-year military campaign led by the kingdom in Yemen. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly accused Iran of supplying sophisticated weapons to the Huthis, a charge Tehran denies.  Saudi Arabia is stuck in a military quagmire in Yemen, which has been locked in conflict since Huthi rebels took control of the capital Sanaa in 2014 and went on to seize much of the north. The Saudi-led coalition intervened the following year to support the internationally recognised government, but the conflict that has shown no signs of abating. Tens of thousands of people, mostly civilians, have been killed and millions displaced in what the United Nations has called the world's worst humanitarian disaster.

Bahrain Says Won't Allow Imports from Israeli Settlements
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 December, 2020
Bahrain will not allow the import of Israeli goods produced in settlements in occupied Palestinian territory, state news agency BNA reported, disavowing comments made by the Gulf state's trade minister earlier this week. Bahrain's Industry, Commerce and Tourism Minister Zayed bin Rashid al-Zayani had voiced openness to settlement imports, adding that Manama would make no distinction between products produced in Israel or in the occupied West Bank and Golan Heights. "The minister's statement was misinterpreted and that the ministry is committed to the Bahraini government's unwavering stance regarding adherence to the resolutions of the United Nations," BNA said late on Friday, quoting an official source from the ministry of industry, commerce and tourism. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates formalized ties with Israel on Sept. 15, in a US-sponsored deal billed by the Gulf states as being made possible by Israel's shelving of a plan to annex West Bank settlements. Most world powers deem them illegal. Under European Union guidelines, settlement products should be clearly labelled as such when exported to EU member countries. The Trump administration last month removed US customs distinctions between goods made within Israel and in settlements. Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki said his Bahraini counterpart, Abdullatif Al-Zayani, also denied the industry minister's comments in a phone call. "The alleged comments ... totally contradicted his country’s (Bahrain) supportive position of the Palestinian cause," a statement from Maliki's office said. Palestinians want to establish an independent state in the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital, but the issue of Jewish settlements on land captured by Israel in 1967 has long been a stumbling block in the peace process, which is now in stalemate. The administration of US President Donald Trump has made it even more difficult for Palestinians by providing full support to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.

Syrian Govt Document Submitted in Geneva Slams Everyone but Russia, Iran
London – Ibrahim Hamidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 December, 2020
The Syrian government submitted to the Constitutional Committee meetings in Geneva a detailed document of its vision for the country amid the conflict and foreign meddling.
Head of the government delegation to the Geneva, Ahmed al-Kuzbari submitted the two-page eight-point document, a copy of which was obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat. The document is more detailed and hardline than previous submissions. It includes demands for the opposition High Negotiations Committee (HNC) to reject “acts of terrorism,” as well as “economic terrorism.” It also shed ISIS and the Muslim Brotherhood in the same terrorist light, while condemning “foreign Turkish, Israeli and American occupation,” omitting any mention of Iran and Syria.
The fourth round of the Constitutional Committee talks involving government, opposition and civil society representatives concluded on Friday. The fifth round is set to convene in January. During previous rounds, United Nations envoy Geir Pedersen managed to reach a written agreement between members in November that the fourth round would discuss “national foundations and principles”.The government delegation sought for these discussions to be held without a set deadline, while the HNC wanted talks to begin on the introduction of the new constitution.
'Foreign occupation'
The document submitted by Kuzbari on Thursday went into detail in explaining the “national foundations and principles”.
The first point underscored the ongoing fight against “all forms of terrorism”. It “vehemently rejected all forms of terrorism committed by terrorist groups, including ISIS, al-Nusra Front, the Muslim Brotherhood and their affiliates throughout Syrian territory.” It also rejected “the terrorism practiced by some countries against the Syrian people, including economic terrorism and unilateral measures” - meaning western sanctions – and demanded compensation for the ensuing losses. The second point condemned “foreign occupation of Syrian territory by Turkey, Israel and the US and efforts to end it through all possible means.” It also sought to criminalize “any collaboration or recognition of occupying forces and calls for foreign intervention.” The document made no reference to the Russian and Iranian presence in Syria, which Damascus says was based on its request.
The third point called on participants at the Geneva talks to “support the Syrian Arab Army through all means in order for it to carry out its duties.”The fourth point “rejected the separatist or semi-separatist agenda and attempts to impose a status quo on the ground.” This can be achieved through the “complete rejection of any political or military move that harms Syria’s territorial integrity.” The separatist or semi-separatist agenda can be thwarted by “rejecting any academic, educational, cultural, social, political or military measures” that serve such goals. It also criminalizes groups and organizations that support separatism, which is understood as a reference to the Kurdish autonomous administration that controls a quarter of Syrian territory in the northeast.
'State symbols'
The fifth point tackles “national identity as the common crucible for all Syrians, rising above religious, sectarian, regional, tribal or racial affiliations.” This is demonstrated through “the name of the state that is the Syrian Arab Republic; the official language, which is Arabic; the sense of belonging to and defense of the nation; the general sense of a person’s total belonging to national soil; and refraining from violating national symbols, such as the national flag and anthem.”The sixth point calls for the need to “protect cultural diversity given its role in boosting national unity.” The seventh point focuses on “encouraging refugees to return home through possible means and ensuring this right.” It rejected “the practices of some parties and governments in obstructing this return under weak excuses and linking them to political agendas.” It also called on the international community to support the Syrian state’s efforts to prepare the necessary conditions for the return of the refugees. The eighth article covered the “humanitarian file” through demands that it be addressed through “international efforts that can ease the humanitarian suffering of the people and that was caused by the systematic terrorist war that has been imposed for ten years.” It also rejected the “political exploitation” of this issue. Syrian Center for Policy and Research estimated that nine years of war in Syria have cost some 530 billion dollars, destroyed 40 percent of the country’s infrastructure and left poverty to spiral to 86 percent of the population of 22 million. The conflict has claimed the lives of 960,000 people, including 560,000 who were killed directly from the war. It forced 13 million out of their homes, while 2.4 million children are out of school. Damascus’ document sparked heated debates between the government and opposition representatives, said sources in Geneva. The HNC urged the need to commit to the “Terms of Reference and Core Rules of Procedure” agreement of the Constitutional Committee. Pedersen’s team did not become embroiled in the debates and did not remind the gatherers of the “Rules of Procedure” even though he had underscored them during a Security Council briefing two months ago. Some opposition members tried to steer the “discussion” towards the constitutional ideas and proposing tangible suggestions, such as forming an independent national committee that would tackle refugee affairs and forming another on human rights.
Sights will now be set on the fifth round of the Constitutional Committee talks, which will be held in January amid a transition in the American administration, whose candidates had pledged to “invest more” in the Syrian political process. Questions will then be raised on whether the discussions will come any closer to constitutional reform and pave the way for elections, in line with resolution 2254, especially with presidential polls set for mid-2021.

Egyptian, US Presidents Discuss Regional Developments
Cairo - Waleed Abdul Rahman/Asharq Al-Awsat/ December 05/2020
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, discussed bilateral cooperation between the two countries, in addition to regional developments. Sisi received a phone call from Trump on Thursday, according to Egyptian presidency spokesperson Bassam Rady. "President Trump stressed the value of the fruitful partnership and constructive cooperation between the United States and Egypt, and the centrality of the mutual understanding between the two countries in enhancing security and stability in the Middle East region." The spokesman affirmed that for his part, "President Sisi expressed during the call his gratitude and appreciation for President Trump's efforts and contributions in consolidating the extended friendship between the two countries," wishing "all the best and prosperity for the United States of America and its friendly people."According to Rady, "the telephone call dealt with exchanging views and appreciation regarding the developments of a number of regional issues of common interest, as well as discussing some issues of bilateral cooperation relations between Egypt and the United States." During a phone call last June, Trump had expressed to his Egyptian counterpart Washington’s commitment to "facilitating reaching a fair agreement” on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. In November 2019, the United States sought to mediate an agreement between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on the rules of filling and operating the dam. However, no agreement was reached, although Washington pushed towards signing an agreement, which Egypt considered "fair and balanced." At the time, Ethiopia accused the US of "not acting diplomatically."
The African Union is sponsoring the latest round of the discussions.

Disputes Erupt over Formation of Partnership Council to Steer Sudan Transition
Khartoum - Ahmed Younis/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 05/2020
A decree by the Sudanese Sovereign Council to appoint a “council of partners for the transition” has prompted a wave of uproar among members of the body and its opponents. Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok warned that he may quit the Sovereign Council, saying that the decree went against the agreement on the structure of the partners body and its privileges. Information minister and government spokesman Faisal Mohammed Saleh told Asharq Al-Awsat on Friday that the prime minister was “surprised” by the decree. Sovereign Council Chairman, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan had on Thursday issued a decree to form the 29-member Transitional Partners Council. It will be tasked with managing the transitional period, serving the country’s higher national interests and resolving disputes among various parties. Saleh said, however, that those involved had agreed to form a “political consultative council” that brings together various political partners to resolve potential disputes. This council would not become involved in sovereign, executive and legislative authorities. The agreement had called for the inclusion of five officers in the partners council, not six, he added. The decree is “unsatisfactory, neither in its structure, nor in its jurisdiction,” he went on to say. “This is not what we agreed on.”The agreement was for the council to be formed of peace partners, he revealed. The Forces for Freedom and Change and officers in the Sovereign Council used to hold talks in their capacity as signatories of the “constitutional document” and therefore, the partners of peace must be part of these talks. Moreover, Saleh remarked that the fact that the decree was issued by the Sovereign Council makes it seem that it was acting as a “substitute to the legislative council.”“This is unacceptable to any party. The council must be restructure and its duties amended so that it does not have power over either the legislative or executive authorities,” he demanded.

Trump Orders Most American Troops to Leave Somalia
Agence France Presse/December 05/2020
The Pentagon said Friday it is pulling most U.S. troops out of Somalia on President Donald Trump's orders, continuing a post-election push by Trump to shrink U.S. involvement in counterterrorism missions abroad.
Without providing details, the Pentagon said in a short statement that "a majority" of U.S. troops and assets in Somalia will be withdrawn in early 2021. There are currently about 700 troops in that Horn of Africa nation, training and advising local forces in an extended fight against the extremist group al-Shabab, an affiliate of al-Qaida. Trump recently ordered troop drawdowns in Afghanistan and Iraq, and he was expected to withdraw some or all troops from Somalia. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had said on Wednesday that the future structure of the U.S. military presence in Somalia was still in debate. The adjusted U.S. presence, Milley said, would amount to "a relatively small footprint, relatively low cost in terms of number of personnel and in terms of money." He provided no specifics but stressed that the U.S. remained concerned about the threat posed by al-Shabab, which he called "an extension of al-Qaida," the extremist group that planned the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States from Afghanistan. "They do have some reach and they could if left unattended conduct operations against not only U.S. interests in the region but also against the homeland," he said. "So they require attention." Noting that Somalia remains a dangerous place for Americans, he said that a CIA officer was killed there recently. The acting secretary of defense, Christopher Miller, made a brief visit to Somalia last week and met with U.S. troops. Depending on what remains of the U.S. presence in Somalia when he takes office Jan. 20, President-elect Joe Biden could reverse Trump's drawdown or make other adjustments to reflect his counterterrorism priorities. The U.S. military also has a presence in neighboring Djibouti on the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Army Gen. Stephen Townsend, head of U.S. Africa Command, said in a written statement that the U.S. contingent in Somalia will "decrease significantly," but he offered no specifics. "U.S. forces will remain in the region and our tasks and commitment to partners remain unchanged," he said. "This action is not a withdrawal and an end to our efforts but a reposition to continue our efforts in East Africa," he added. Rep. Jim Langevin, a Rhode Island Democrat, criticized the Trump pullback in Somalia as a "surrender to al-Qaida and a gift of China." Langevin is chairman of the House Armed Services Committee's Intelligence and Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee.
"When U.S. forces leave Somalia in response to today's order, it becomes harder for diplomats and aid workers to help people resolve conflicts without violence and loss of life," Langevin said. "With upcoming elections in Somalia and conflict raging in neighboring Ethiopia, abandoning our partners could not come at a worse time." Langevin said China will use the opportunity to build its influence in the Horn of Africa. The Pentagon said the drawdown in Somalia does not mark the end of U.S. counterterrorism efforts there. "As a result of this decision, some forces may be reassigned outside of East Africa," it said. "However, the remaining forces will be repositioned from Somalia into neighboring countries in order to allow cross-border operations by both U.S. and partner forces to maintain pressure against violent extremist organizations operating in Somalia."It added: "The U.S. will retain the capability to conduct targeted counterterrorism operations in Somalia, and collect early warnings and indicators regarding threats to the homeland." The nature of the threat posed by al-Shabab and the appropriate U.S. response has been a matter of increasing debate in the Pentagon, which has been looking for opportunities to shift its focus toward China as a greater long-term challenge. A Defense Department watchdog report last week said U.S. Africa Command has seen a "definitive shift" this year in al-Shabab's focus to attack U.S. interests in the region. Africa Command says al-Shabab is Africa's most "dangerous" and "imminent" threat.

Kuwait Holds Parliamentary Election under Shadow of Virus
Agence France Presse/December 05/2020
Kuwaitis hoping for reform went to the polls on Saturday in a parliamentary election overshadowed by Covid-19, with facilities laid on for citizens infected with the disease to vote in special polling stations. The oil-rich emirate has enforced some of the strictest regulations in the Gulf to combat the spread of the virus, imposing a months-long lockdown earlier this year. While some of those curbs have been eased, over-the-top campaign events that traditionally draw thousands for lavish banquets were absent from this year's election, while masks remain mandatory and temperature checks are routine when venturing outdoors. Infected people or those under mandatory quarantine are usually confined to home, with electronic wristbands monitoring their movements. But in an effort to respect their right to vote, authorities designated five polling stations -- one in each electoral district -- for them to cast their ballots, among the 102 across the country. And on Saturday authorities set up security barriers around the polling stations to prevent gatherings, with designated lanes for entry and exit. Mask-clad voters, who were also forced to wear gloves, were subject to temperature checks before entering the facilities where election officials stood behind glass barriers.
'New blood'
Unlike other oil-rich Gulf states, Kuwait has a lively political life with a parliament elected for four-year terms that enjoys wide legislative powers. Political disputes are often fought out in the open. But with more than 143,000 coronavirus cases to date, including 886 deaths, the election campaign has been toned down with a few banners hoisted over the streets. Instead, this year's campaign has mainly been fought on social networks and in the media. The usual themes are a constant though, from promises to fight corruption and plans to address youth employment, to freedom of expression, housing, education and the thorny issue of the "bidoon", Kuwait's stateless minority. Some Kuwaitis have expressed their desire for change and reform in their country, where 70 percent of the 4.8 million population are foreigners. "We want change, new blood, to encourage the youth," said Hoda al-Hassan, who cast her ballot in the Al-Rawda area of Kuwait City. "I also hope that the parliament will resolve the issue of the 'bidoon' and that of the demographic imbalance," she added. Yousef Ahmed Safar, who voted in the Al-Nazha area, said he too hoped for reform. "We want to improve our situation, including in employment and housing, as well as the issue of combatting corruption," he said. The polls, which opened at 8:00 am (0500 GMT), are the first since the new emir, Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, took office in September following the death of his half-brother, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, at the age of 91.
More than 567,000 Kuwaiti voters were eligible to choose among the 326 candidates, who include 29 women.
- 'Struggle' -
Like most Gulf countries, Kuwait's economy has been hit hard by the double whammy of the pandemic and slumping oil prices. According to Kuwaiti analyst Mohammed al-Dawsari, the emirate may witness a "struggle" between the new National Assembly and the government over economic legislation.
"The people were not satisfied with the performance of the previous parliament, and there are many who are calling for a comprehensive reconciliation between the government and the opposition," he said. While the opposition has weakened in recent years, Dawsari said he expect there will be more opposition representation in the National Assembly this year. From 2009 to 2013, and especially after the Arab Spring revolts of 2011, the country went through a period of political turmoil, with parliament and cabinets dissolved several times amid disputes between lawmakers and governments dominated by the ruling Al-Sabah family."Fighting corruption is the priority," said Ibrahim Dashti, who was running in Kuwait's third constituency. "This... along with scrapping laws that restrict freedoms and for parliament to exercise its regulatory role away from personal agendas," he added. The election results are expected to be announced on Sunday morning. Kuwait was the first Gulf Arab state to adopt a parliamentary system in 1962. Women were granted the right to vote and to stand for election in 2005.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 05- 06/2020
Erdoğan's New Charm Offensive: Bogus Democratic Reforms
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/December 05/2020
Erdoğan's new reform pledge came at a time when a former leader of a pro-Kurdish party, along with dozens of others, remains in jail for the past years. Almost all the elected Kurdish mayors have been replaced by government-appointed administrators. Hundreds of journalists, politicians and intellectuals spend jail time on absurdly flimsy charges. Pro-government judges announce rulings in defiance of rulings from superior Turkish courts, including the Constitutional Court, and from the European Court of Human Rights. Those judges who dare make "undesirable verdicts" are probed and often get disciplinary punishments.
Erdoğan's new charm offensive is deeply problematic. It is not genuine. It is too little too late. Just a few days after he launched his reform campaign, he refused calls for the release of a jailed Kurdish politician and a civil rights activist. "Erdoğan's reform program survived only nine days," said Bekir Ağırdır, a prominent political analyst and director of the research company KONDA.
Erdoğan has a serious predicament: He wants his country to keep suffering as a third world democracy while he hopes to lure foreign investment at the same amounts and terms as a Western democracy. That will not happen.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has a serious predicament: He wants his country to keep suffering as a third world democracy while he hopes to lure foreign investment at the same amounts and terms as a Western democracy. That will not happen.
It is his favorite cycle: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recklessly widens Turkey's democratic deficit, weakens institutions, refuses to acknowledge democratic checks and balances. He isolates Turkey mostly from its Western alliances and follows an irredentist foreign policy of trying to reclaim supposedly "lost" land. Turkey is at odds with both the United States and Europe.
Inevitably, political isolation causes economic isolation. The economy is on a downfall. Investors flee the country. Voters start to complain about the double-digit inflation and interest rates; the lira falls and falls; unemployment rises sharply. Erdogan rediscovers his reformist self and promises to democratize -- presumably hoping, in vain, that he can reverse the economic downfall.
At the end of October, Erdoğan challenged the U.S. to impose sanctions against his country while he also launched a second personal attack -- on French President Emmanuel Macron. "Whatever your sanctions are, don't be late," he addressed Washington. To Macron, he said: "The person in charge of France has lost his way," only a day after he suggested the French president needed mental health treatment because of his views on radical Muslims. To European leaders, he said: "You are fascists in the true meaning of the world. You are veritably the link in the Nazi chain." To the Netherlands, at the end of October, he revived his rant of three years ago: "You are Nazi remnants and fascists."
As the economy gave even worse signals of a free-fall, with the national currency this year losing third of its value against the U.S. dollar, a major balance of payments crisis looked imminent. As of November 3, the lira was the world's biggest loser for 2020.
Erdoğan dramatically began by firing Central Bank Governor Murat Uysal on November 6. Two days later, Erdoğan sacked his own son-in-law, the Economy and Finance Minister, Berat Albayrak. On November 13, Erdoğan launched what he called a new and comprehensive program for economic and judicial reforms. This would be, in the words of Erdoğan's spokesman, Ibrahim Kalın, "a new drive to increase the standards of democratic rights and freedoms." Justice Minister Abdülhamit Gül joined the chorus of bogus reformers: "Let justice be served even if all hell breaks loose."
Any PR campaign designed to constrain the damage would be incomplete without prettier language about the West, or "Nazis," according to Erdoğan. "We don't see ourselves elsewhere but in Europe," Erdoğan said on November 21. "We envisage building our future together with Europe." Two days later, Defense Minister Hulusi Akar described NATO as the "cornerstone of our defense and security policy" and said that Turkey was looking forward to cooperating with the presumptive incoming administration under Joe Biden in the United States.
Erdoğan is not talking about reforms because he wants to reform his country's notoriously ailing democracy. His latest charm offensive, as in previous years, targets foreign investment at a time when Turkey's economy is ringing loud alarm bells.
According to official figures, a total of 63,014 people were indicted for insulting Erdoğan between 2014 and 2019. Of those, 9,554 were sentenced. Recent research by Artı Bir has shown that only 1.7% of Turks had confidence in their country's judicial system (and 1.2% in parliament). Even Erdoğan's former justice minister, Cemil Çiçek, presently a member of the Presidential board of consultation, expressed his outright pessimism about reform: "The word 'reform' has been worn off a lot. No one should expect anything (from the new effort)."
Erdoğan's new reform pledge came at a time when a former leader of a pro-Kurdish party, along with dozens of others, remains in jail for the past years. Almost all the elected Kurdish mayors have been replaced by government-appointed administrators. Hundreds of journalists, politicians and intellectuals spend jail time on absurdly flimsy charges. Pro-government judges announce rulings in defiance of rulings from superior Turkish courts, including the Constitutional Court, and from the European Court of Human Rights. Those judges who dare make "undesirable verdicts" are probed and often get disciplinary punishments.
It is not a coincidence that Freedom House has put Turkey in its "not free" list of countries in its 2020 assessment. Some of the other countries in Turkey's grouping include Afghanistan, Angola, Belarus, Brunei, Chad, Djibouti, Eritrea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Myanmar, North Korea, Nicaragua, Qatar, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. According to the World Justice Project, Turkey ranks 107 out of 128 countries on rule of law. In addition, according to Reporters Without Borders' press freedom ranking, Turkey is at the 154th place out of 180 countries, scoring worse than Pakistan, Congo and Bangladesh.
Erdoğan's new charm offensive is deeply problematic. It is not genuine. It is "too little too late." Just a few days after he launched his reform campaign, he refused calls for the release of a jailed Kurdish politician and a civil rights activist. "Erdoğan's reform program survived only nine days," said Bekir Ağırdır, a prominent political analyst and director of the research company KONDA.
Erdoğan has a serious predicament: He wants his country to keep suffering as a third world democracy while he hopes to lure foreign investment at the same amounts and terms as a Western democracy. That will not happen.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

The G20 Summit in Riyadh and Developments on the Global Economic Scene
Dr. Thamer Mahmoud Al-Ani/Asharq Al-Awsat/ December 05/2020
Director of Economic Relations at the Arab League and former Econometrics Professor at the University of Baghdad.
The adequacy of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) membership quotas is a fundamental part of the international financial architecture discussed in the 14 paragraph of the final statement of the Riyadh G20 Summit held on November 21 and 22, 2020. Leaders reaffirmed their commitment to guaranteeing a strong international financial safety net that is supported sufficiently and ensuring that the IMF remains at the forefront of this network as a robust, quota-based and adequately resourced institution. They also committed to reviewing the adequacy of membership quotas and continuing the IMF governance reform process under the 16th general review of quotas, including a new quota formula by December 15, 2023.
The leaders called on the Fund to continue exploring additional tools for serving the members’ needs as the crisis develops, solidifying long-term financial resilience, supporting growth, promoting sustainable capital flows and developing domestic capital markets. The Fund’s members agreed to keep its lending capacity at one trillion dollars, postponing any changes to its contribution structure to December 15, 2023.
The leaders’ move is an acknowledgment that the IMF’s quota review will not result in changes that grant major developing economies, such as China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and others, more influence. The US should have ceded part of its share so that the distribution would become more closely aligned with countries’ economic weight, for this wouldn’t have undermined its privileged position within the Fund. Now, however, any new distribution of shares would threaten that position. Countries are deeply dismayed by the Fund’s failure to regulate its contribution structure in such a way that acknowledges the growing stature of China and other rapidly growing economies.
Some countries’ decision to refuse a quota review stems from the fact that each country’s voting power is determined by its share of the Fund’s capital, and this, in turn, is determined by a formula that factors in gross domestic product, the degree of the country’s economic openness, the extent of its economy’s structural variability, and the amount of monetary reserves it holds. Quotas and voting power become more important when we bear in mind that for some crucial decisions, such as whether to lend member states or even review quotas, an 85% majority of the total votes is required. Accordingly, since the US’s share is above 17 %, it can effectively veto any decision.
It would perhaps be fairer for some countries to give up part of their quota in order for the distribution to become more aligned with countries’ economic weight, for this would not have undercut their privileged position, while any new distribution of shares could cost them that position. The United States’ share had almost halved (from 33% when the Fund was established in 1944 to around 17%), which corresponds to the decrease of its share of the global economy, around 50% at the end of World War II to about 24.4% in 2020. When the changes to shares’ distribution had threatened its position in the past, the Fund’s decision-making framework was modified - for example, the majority required for critical decisions was raised from 70% to 85% of the total votes, preserving the US monopoly over the veto within the institution.
The last time decisions on quotas were taken was during the G20 finance ministers’ meeting in South Korea, stipulating that IMF member countries’ shares be doubled, from about 476.8 billion special drawing rights (SDR) units (about $ 755.7 billion) instead 238.4 billion SDR units worth of share; as well as an increase to the relative shares, and thus in the voting power, of emerging economies, at the forefront of which is China. This decision was taken because of the weight of the global financial crisis, at a time when the global economy needed massive sums to overcome the crisis. As a result of that decision, the major emerging countries, like China, India and Brazil, became among the ten countries with the most IMF shares. China became third to America and Japan.
The summit’s statement came as a result of the postponement of the quota review to 2023, which deviates from the typical practice of reviewing these quotas every five years. That is, a revision of the 15th quota review of 2015 should have been finalized, but the IMF postponed working on this review until after the stipulations of the 14th review are implemented.
The postponement of governance and quota reform was deeply disappointing to the international community because of the urgency of the need to resolve the issue of the Fund’s quotas in a way that takes into account the stature of the economies of the large countries such as China, Brazil and Saudi Arabia, which would grant them increased voting power and reflect the changes in the global economy. Quota reform would perhaps be a significant step forward that must go ahead in order for the provisions of the world leaders’ resolution to be implemented. A financial push is needed, to which all IMF members should contribute in line with their economic development, especially since the Fund’s portfolio has doubled to a trillion dollars, making it much more financially powerful.
To arrive at a more just, equitable, balanced and stable world, accounting for the size of countries’ economies is necessary. The size of the US economy is 19.39 trillion dollars, 24.4% of the global economy, and China comes in second place, with a 12.24 trillion-dollar economy, 15.4% of the global economy. Then the other countries follow. There is no escape from incorporating the previously mentioned economic criterion if quotas are to be distributed in a manner that furthers justice, equity and the equalization economic opportunities around the world.
The IMF’s Board of Governors is called on to study alternatives to safeguard the Fund’s legitimacy and credibility and to look into alternatives for approving reforms to the quota system that would lead to sustainable economic growth in light of the coronavirus pandemic, which is the real threat to the global economy, and leaders’ concern for a more just distribution of quota in light of the commitment to guarantee a sufficiently buttressed strong financial safety net support and the IMF’s survival.

Amr Moussa: Current Developments in Lebanon Tied to Rafik Hariri’s Assassination
Asharq Al-Awsat releases excerpts of the former Arab League secretary-general’s new biography.
Cairo /Asharq Al-Awsat/ December 05/2020
Three years after former Secretary-General of the Arab League Amr Moussa published the first part of his biography, his second book entitled, “The Years of the Arab League”, will soon be released by Dar El-Shorouk.
The 574-page book consists of 19 chapters in which Moussa reveals the secrets of his 10-year tenure at the Arab League (2001-2011), which was marked with major events in the Arab world.
Starting Saturday, Asharq Al-Awsat will publish seven episodes of Moussa’s memoirs. The first part focuses on the political crisis in Lebanon, which began with the call by Hezbollah and its Maronite ally – the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) – for the resignation of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s government, leading to the Doha Agreement in 2008.
Moussa recounts: “On February 14, 2005, I was in my office at the Arab League preparing to travel to Aden to attend the first meeting of the Economic and Social Council of the Arab League outside its headquarters, which was to be inaugurated by Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. I was watching Al-Jazeera, which suddenly announced a huge explosion in Beirut, in which Prime Minister Rafik Hariri might have been targeted. I surfed satellite stations until I saw on Al-Arabiya channel the news of Rafik Hariri’s death along with 21 other people.
I asked my office director to arrange my travel to Lebanon immediately, and I called the Yemeni Foreign Minister, Abu Bakr al-Qirbi, and told him that I would not be able to attend because of what happened, and that I would go to Lebanon.
President Ali Abdullah Saleh contacted me shortly after, stressing the need for me to come to Yemen; but I apologized, saying that the assassination of Rafik Hariri was an Arab calamity and a very dangerous development.
On the same day, I traveled to Beirut. At Hariri’s palace, I found his two sons Saadeddine and Bahaa. I offered them condolences, and the place was teeming with mourners. I was the first official to arrive from abroad and I stayed in the palace until late at night. The first Arab foreign minister to land in Beirut was Dr. Abu Bakr al-Qirbi, who also did not attend the Aden meeting!
The funeral took place on the second day. Given the deteriorating security situation in Beirut at this time, my dear friend, Speaker Nabih Berri, placed me under the protection of the Parliament’s security guards. It was clear that some leaders of the Sunni community, some Maronite parties and others were blaming Syria for the assassination.
Some of them pointed at Hezbollah, but basically, all accusations were directed at Damascus. I found that the best thing that the secretary-general of the Arab League could do was to travel to Syria and talk to President Bashar al-Assad.
On the third day, I requested to visit Syria. I went under a very tight protection by the Lebanese government until I reached the Syrian border, where the Syrian guards escorted me directly to the presidential palace. President Bashar received me and we had a very frank conversation.
I told him: Mr. President, I came from Lebanon where feelings are raging after what happened. The death of Rafik Hariri will not pass easily, and the Syrian presence [in Lebanon] has now become under deep scrutiny… Demands are growing for the withdrawal of the Syrian forces…
He told me: I am the first Syrian president to withdraw forces from Lebanon. There were more than 60,000 Syrian soldiers when I came to power. I reduced the number to 35,000, and I am ready to withdraw additional troops… I have no objection to removing all the forces. I asked him: Can I, Mr. President, announce that you have decided to withdraw the Syrian army from Lebanon? He said: Yes, you can announce that, because I told you that I will withdraw the army.
I went out and announced the news, saying that it will be carried out within a specific time frame. My meeting with the president was attended by Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Sharaa, with whom I had lunch. Whenever the withdrawal was raised, Sharaa changed the subject, as if he wanted to ignore the topic. He was not comfortable with the announcement by Syrian journalists that the president had decided to start the withdrawal of the Syrian army from Lebanon.
I left Syria by land to Beirut and returned by plane to Cairo. There, I turned on the radio in the car and heard the BBC: “Syrian officials have denied what the secretary-general of the League of Arab States had said about President Bashar al-Assad’s decision to withdraw his troops from Lebanon.”
I got angry, and immediately called Al-Sharaa. He asked me: What do you want us to do?
I told him to confirm my statement as secretary-general of the League after my encounter with the president, and avoid us getting into a war of statements because I will of course insist on what I mentioned following the meeting.
The Syrian side consented and the president started reducing the forces until their complete withdrawal.
Motives of the assassination
In my interpretation of the motives for Hariri’s assassination, I say: He was a leader capable of exercising power, as he was of a special prestige, whether among the Lebanese Sunnis or among the political, economic and societal circles in Lebanon in general. The presence of a man of Hariri’s stature at the top of the Sunni community cannot be ignored in the face of Hezbollah.
The removal of Hariri from the scene was based on long-term regional calculations, and an important part of what we see in Lebanon today is connected to it.
Between March and June 2006, the Lebanese National Dialogue Conference, with the participation of leaders and influential figures, reached consensus on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and diplomatic relations between Lebanon and Syria, the demarcation of the borders and the possession of weapons outside the Palestinian camps. A serious discussion took place over Hezbollah’s arms, but without being completed.
The national dialogue made us believe that things were heading towards a quiet Lebanese summer, especially on the southern borders with Israel. But on June 12, 2006, a force affiliated with Hezbollah attacked an Israeli military post on the border, resulting in the capture of two Israeli soldiers and the killing of eight others. Israel responded by launching an extensive attack.
The Arab views varied over the escalating steps that Hezbollah had taken against Israel. Egypt and Saudi Arabia considered this an adventure by the party. Here, I must say that managing Arab politics, especially when it comes to a crisis that has far-reaching roots, is always linked to global policies and contradictory interests of major countries, such as the Arab-Israeli conflict.
From this standpoint, the Arab League’s stance was formulated at that time without prejudice to the organization’s firm position regarding one of the origins of the problem, namely the Israeli occupation and its practices that can neither be accepted nor tolerated.
War of statements
Immediately after the outbreak of the aggression, Kuwait, in coordination with me, called for an urgent meeting of the Arab foreign ministers at the headquarters of the Arab League in Cairo, which took place on July 15, 2006.
The second closed session of the meeting witnessed severe arguments between Prince Saud Al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, and his Syrian counterpart Walid Al-Muallem.
Al-Muallem addressed the participants, saying: “I want to share with you some of my crazy dreams, I say crazy because they don’t match the current Arab or international situations... I dreamed that our meeting would begin with a minute of silence for the souls of the martyrs of Gaza and Lebanon, and that the secretary-general will call for our meeting in Gaza… In all frankness and sincerity... we will not adopt any word that comes out of here that is beneficial to Israel in its aggression against Lebanon, whether in the name of rationality or in the name of emotion…”
Prince Saud asked to respond to Al-Muallem, saying: “I did not know that the policy of brother Walid was driven by dreams… Why is it permitted to use the Lebanese borders to attack Israel and not to use the Golan? Did Israel attack because we issued a statement? Israel attacked because of what Hezbollah had done in the region. What kind of a dream is it when a person believes that rationality and logic were a fatal mistake? These are demonic dreams.”
I observed in silence what was happening, hoping to find an opportunity to interject. At the same time, it was difficult to change the convictions of a large group of Arab League members that Hezbollah’s actions were not motivated by resisting Israeli occupation, but rather part of a political game led by Iran and its regional role that opposes Arabs and their interests.
Arab foreign ministers meeting
During the last week of July 2006, I felt that we needed to block the American-French draft resolution in the Security Council, because it would be unjust to Lebanon.
Hence, I called for a meeting of the Arab foreign ministers at the Grand Serail in Beirut, to be held on August 7. Following speeches in solidarity with Lebanon, the meeting turned into a bitter and long debate between Al-Muallem, who insisted on saluting Hezbollah in the decision of the Arab League Council, and Siniora, who responded by saying: “Arab foreign ministers came here to support a unified Lebanese position.”
The Council reached a set of decisions, including the assignment of the UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Qatari Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar to present the Arab viewpoint on the situation in Lebanon.
The meetings in New York ended with the Security Council issuing Resolution 1701 on August 11, 2006. Through a legal reading of the resolution, I say that it is largely biased towards Israel, but it can be considered as better than the previous draft resolutions that were rejected by both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. According to Hassan Nasrallah, this decision was the least harmful of all the other draft-resolutions.
Published in special agreement with Dar Al Shorouk - all rights reserved.

A shot in the arm … but whose?
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/December 05/2020
The coronavirus has infected over 66 million people and killed more than 1.5 million worldwide, and these are only the reported cases. There are many more unreported in the developed world and especially in developing countries, which have inadequate diagnostics infrastructure.
The past few weeks have brought some rays of hope. The Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca-Oxford University vaccines have grabbed most of the headlines because of their more than 90 percent efficacy, although the last is shrouded in controversy over sample size and methodology. Russia’s Sputnik V is beingrolled out there, but little is known about the methodology of its trials.
Light at the end of the tunnel is clearly welcome, but the UK’s fast-track approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech two-shot vaccine raises a raft of legal, logistical and ethical questions. Vaccines should be available to all and at an affordable price, but what is affordable and how should developers be compensated for their efforts? Many vaccines were developed by wealthy pharma giants, but it is precisely their deep pockets that enabled them to fund the research, and to manufacture and stockpile vast quantities of vaccines that trials might have shown to be useless.
How to distribute the vaccines, some of which have to be stored at -70C? This will be easier in developed countries with a strong cold storage infrastructure. Even there, the ultra-low temperatures pose a problem, when many hospitals lack adequate refrigeration capacity. It becomes a million times more difficult in developing countries which are largely devoid of healthcare and logistics infrastructure.
How to implement a national vaccination scheme? Who should be vaccinated first? Even Britain’s universal National Health Service will be sorely tested by a program of this magnitude, and it will be even harder in the US, where the Centers for Disease Control issue guidelines but implementation is the responsibility of individual states. The UK is opting to vaccinate healthcare workers first, followed by care-home residents, vulnerable groups and the elderly. The UK wants to work downward by age group, which is not the only recommended course of action. Some experts think young people should be given priority immediately after the elderly because they are potentially super-spreaders.
Light at the end of the tunnel is clearly welcome, but the UK’s fast-track approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech two-shot vaccine raises a raft of legal, logistical and ethical questions.
Then there is the question of whether to make vaccination compulsory, which would encounter constitutional challenges in democracies.
As for the distribution of vaccines, there is broad consensus that everybody should have access, and manyworld leaders have made benevolent statements to that effect — but when push comes to shove, politicians instinctively want to protect their own citizens first. Ninety-five percent of doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines have been ordered by developed countries. Forty percent of the AstraZeneca vaccine, which requires more moderate refrigeration, has been earmarked for low-income and middle-income countries
Research suggests that there is a better way for everyone. A study in March by Northeastern University in Boston indicated that if the first two billion doses of vaccines were supplied to wealthy countries and one billion to poorer countries, 33 percent of global deaths would have been averted by Sept. 1, but if the doses were to be distributed equitably 61 percent of global deaths could be prevented. This was obviously an academic exercise, but it should still convince leaders that cooperation stands a better chance of fighting the virus than “vaccine imperialism.”
These are all difficult questions, but the virus knows no boundaries, whether national, economic or social. A genuinely compassionate and effective response should be the same.
*Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources. Twitter: @MeyerResources

Who killed Iran’s nuclear mastermind … and why now?
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/December 05/2020
After the assassination of Prof. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the “father” of Iran’s nuclear program, the question on everyone’s mind was the identity of the perpetrator. The list of suspects was relatively short (actually very short), and pointed mainly at Israel, with the consent and maybe even the encouragement of the US. Ostensibly, Israel’s motive, or that of any other country keen to hamper Iran’s nuclear development, seems self-explanatory, even for those who vehemently oppose such acts of international piracy. However, the timing raises the question of whether there was more to this operation than simply harming the scientific aspects of Iran’s nuclear program.
Clearly, it would be naive to believe there was no link between the decision to assassinate one of the main figures of the Iranian nuclear program, and the timing — in the twilight of the Trump presidency. Fakhrizadeh had long been a marked man for those who wanted to halt Iran’s nuclear military ambitions. However, the elimination of one individual, as important as he was, won’t curb those ambitions. At worst it is a setback that will require regrouping rather than starting from scratch; after all, an accumulated knowledge prevails among the Iranian scientific community. This may indicate that the timing of Fakhrizadeh’s killing is at least as important as the target itself, and suggests that it is a move to disrupt any attempt by the incoming Biden administration from returning to the JCPOA nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1, and removing the sanctions on Iran.
As well as the need to make the Middle East a nuclear weapon-free zone, there is a near-universal consensus that an Iran with nuclear military capability is a threat to peace and security in the region and beyond. Moreover, few are inclined to buy the official Iranian line that it is spending an abundance of energy and resources on a nuclear program that is solely for civil purposes. Yet the question remains: What is the optimum way to stop Tehran from acquiring nuclear military capability? Israel’s approach since the 1990s — one that has intensified during Benjamin Netanyahu’s years at the helm — is through punitive measures, and if necessary military operations, overt or covert.
For Iran, the killing of Fakhrizadeh is not only the loss of a leading scientist who was also a senior figure of the military establishment, but an unsettling demonstration that a foreign force has the intelligence, the capability and the audacity to execute such a sophisticated, accurate and deadly operation.
However, Iran’s nuclear program has survived diplomatic pressure, economic sanctions, assassinations of scientists, physical sabotage of nuclear sites, and cyber attacks. It was actually the JCPOA, despite some of its obvious shortcomings, that slowed Iran’s program by tying the removal of sanctions to limiting its enrichment of uranium. President Trump’s withdrawal left the agreement hollow and meaningless, and without a viable alternative. It may be argued that Iran breached the spirit of the agreement by continuing the development of ballistic missiles and its aggressive actions in the wider region; but it did not violate the terms of the agreement itself until the US withdrew. The fear among those who supported Trump’s withdrawal, especially Israel, is of a Biden administration re-joining the JCPOA; and on this view the assassination of Fakhrizadeh was probably aimed at instigating a crisis that would harden Iran’s position and prevent even a mild rapprochement between Tehran and Washington.
For Iran, the killing of Fakhrizadeh is not only the loss of a leading scientist who was also a senior figure of the military establishment, but an unsettling demonstration that a foreign force has the intelligence, the capability and the audacity to execute such a sophisticated, accurate and deadly operation. Considering Fakhrizadeh’s centrality to the regime’s strategic objectives, his assassination in broad daylight inside Iran is a massive embarrassment.
Israel’s ability to hit Iranian targets in Syria at will, together with the latest assassination, is adding to Iran’s sense of vulnerability, its sense of victimhood and its paranoia. This in turn will lead to a bitter internal debate among the regime’s different and conflicting centers of power. Should it retaliate immediately against Israeli or even US targets, or should it reconsider its foreign policy priorities, or at least wait until Biden takes office? Retaliating, especially in a manner likely to escalate tensions with Israel and possibly other countries, is not going to serve Iranian interests, but those Iranians who thrive on conflict and friction are advocating such a course of action.
The regime’s more pragmatic elements understand the danger of overreacting, especially at a time when Washington is going through a political transition, and Israel will soon be heading to the polls. President Hassan Rouhani has promised a response, but he qualified that by asserting that it will happen in “the proper time.” In other words, it might never happen if it depended on him, but this is not necessarily the case, especially as Iran is about to enter its own presidential election year. A more hardline candidate is expected to win in June, which may also harden the position of those currently in power.
Relations between Israel and Iran dominate a significant portion of Middle East affairs, and for all the wrong reasons. Escalation by proxy, covert and even direct confrontation can’t be ruled out, and it behoves the international community and the new US administration to step in and prevent it, in their own interests as much as those of Iran and Israel.
*Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg

If Iran doesn’t want to get burnt, stop stoking the flames
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/December 05/2020
The coronavirus has infected over 66 million people and k
Does Iran want war?
Iran’s proxies launched missile strikes against Jeddah and other parts of the Arabian Peninsula, while continuing to stoke the conflict in Yemen.
Tehran has accumulated 12 times the amount of enriched uranium permitted under the 2015 deal, with the IAEA warning that Iran is preparing to install hundreds of new advanced centrifuges.
Iran’s parliament and Guardian Council have passed a bill to accelerate production of higher-enriched uranium, and banning IAEA inspections.
Following the assassination of a nuclear scientist, Iranian officials have been threatening retaliation against Western, GCC and regional targets.
Iran’s proxies are blocking government formation in Lebanon, while stockpiling rocket arsenals in Syria and Iraq, and boasting of their ability to launch strikes throughout the region.
NATO has revealed that Iran continues to smuggle weapons to terrorist entities in Bahrain.
We are told that Tehran wants to avoid provoking all-out conflict in the six weeks before Donald Trump leaves office, but Iran is so heavily invested in its war-making activities on so many fronts that it appears to have lost all perspective of how provocative its default regional posture is. The regime claims it wants peace, while firing rockets at Jeddah; it is innately incapable of responsible behavior.
On both sides of the Lebanese border, all forces are mobilized for all circumstances if their leaderships order them to strike. Iran’s proxies in many states are ready to act in unison when called upon. This is a terrifyingly dangerous situation. The slightest miscalculation could plunge us into war. As one veteran Western diplomat told me: “When we are dealing with mad people in all directions, we must be ready for anything.”
Iran’s defiance of the entire world has brought it to the brink of bankruptcy and humiliation, even among Shiite populations throughout the region who have come to regard Tehran as an interfering menace.
Hassan Nasrallah warns that “the axis of resistance should be in a state of high readiness to respond twice as hard in case of any American or Israeli folly.” As the Hezbollah leader belligerently provokes Armageddon, there are rumors he’s already hiding out in Iran, knowing himself to be Israel’s No. 1 target, and aware that when he finally succeeds in provoking Israel, Iran’s proxies and the civilian populations around them would be annihilated. Amid swirling reports about plots and assassination threats in Beirut, the British Embassy is evacuating families of diplomats and the US has removed half its staff in Baghdad in anticipation of threats.
Paradoxically, indications that the Biden administration could countenance a return to the 2015 nuclear deal could be a further destabilizing factor. Israel and the GCC states certainly don’t want a nuclear Iran, but Biden should acknowledge that signing a deal that doesn’t address Iran’s missile threat or its transnational paramilitary armies will only embolden Tehran and award it with billions of dollars more resources with which to wage regional warfare — particularly as key provisions limiting Iran’s enrichment activities expire around the end of Biden’s first presidential term.
With Trump discussing the targeting of Iranian nuclear sites, Netanyahu knows he will never again have as favorable circumstances for “bold” action than the final weeks of the slavishly pro-Israel Trump administration. Facing new elections and perhaps jail, could Netanyahu reinvent himself as a wartime leader as a final desperate throw of the dice? There are many occasions when I sincerely hope to be proved wrong.
Should we take Iran’s threats of retaliation for the killing of Mohzen Fakhrizadeh seriously? Iran threatened a “devastating response” to the killing of Imad Mughniyah. It threatened to hit back after previous strikes against nuclear scientists and military targets. We were promised that the world would tremble at the response to the killing of Qassim Soleimani. Is Iran the dog that barks and barks and barks, but is too cowardly to bite?
The Revolutionary Guards have become a domestic laughing stock after ludicrous claims that the attack on its scientist was conducted by remote control, even though eyewitnesses reported a gunfight involving possibly 10 assassins. The internet in Iran has been flooded with mocking memes about killer robots and psychotic Tesla self-drive cars. Iran’s defiance of the entire world has brought it to the brink of bankruptcy and humiliation, even among Shiite populations throughout the region who have come to regard Tehran as an interfering menace.
A phone recording has emerged in which a Kata’ib Hezbollah leader threatened a senior Iraqi army commander that he would cut of his hand if the army acted to implement the law and remove paramilitary banners for militias that are supposed to be integrated into the armed forces. Iran’s proxies see themselves as bigger than the Iraqi and Lebanese states, and outside of their laws.
In Israel, the West and the GCC, many political constituencies vocally argue that the only way to neutralize the Iranian threat is through decisive military action. Whether or not they are correct, this is manifestly an existential problem for Tehran, which — if it wants to avoid signing its own death warrant — must take urgent action to head off the prospects of such a strike.
In the fable, Leila falsely claims that the wolf is coming to eat her. Finally, everybody ignores her cries when the wolf arrives and devours her. After decades of Hezbollah and the ayatollahs saber-rattling about war with Israel, will we wake one morning to discover that Israel’s war machine has already devoured its prey? There have recently been impressive efforts to make peace between neighboring states in the region, with a renewed focus on solving decades-old problems and prioritizing peace and development. Such moves leave Hezbollah and Iran more isolated than ever.
If the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and others are willing to countenance peace, is it not time for Tehran to recognize that the best means of defending itself is by not perpetually provoking conflict?
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.