LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 04/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
I tell you, anyone who hears my word and believes him who sent me has eternal life, and does not come under judgement, but has passed from death to life.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 05/24-30/:”Very truly, I tell you, anyone who hears my word and believes him who sent me has eternal life, and does not come under judgement, but has passed from death to life. ‘Very truly, I tell you, the hour is coming, and is now here, when the dead will hear the voice of the Son of God, and those who hear will live. For just as the Father has life in himself, so he has granted the Son also to have life in himself; and he has given him authority to execute judgement, because he is the Son of Man. Do not be astonished at this; for the hour is coming when all who are in their graves will hear his voice and will come out those who have done good, to the resurrection of life, and those who have done evil, to the resurrection of condemnation. ‘I can do nothing on my own. As I hear, I judge; and my judgement is just, because I seek to do not my own will but the will of him who sent me.”’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 03-04/2019
Lebanon’s Iranian Cancerous Occupation and The Required Solutions
Aoun on National Day for Integration of People with Special Needs: Rights of this segment should not be neglected
Aoun Promises 'Positive Developments' amid Progress in Govt. Talks
Details of New Government's Line-Up Emerge
Hariri: I Support Samir Khatib and Technocrats Will Represent Me in Govt.e
Hariri receives Jumblatt, says he supports Khatib’s designation
Woman in Tripoli attempts to set herself on fire over her living conditions
Army Commander chairs meeting of high level steering committee of assistance program to protect land border security
Bassil: Govt. Success More Important than Our Presence in It
Jumblat Says Haggles over Nominee for PM ‘Unconstitutional’
Protesters in Tripoli Block Roads, State and Public Institutions
Hundreds of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon Return Home
Protesters Throw Stones at Troops, Injuring Some
Suicide of Unemployed Man Strikes a Chord in Crisis-Hit Lebanon
Syrian Pound Hits New Black Market Low amid Liquidity Crunch in Lebanon
Trump Administration Lifts Hold on Lebanon Security Aid
In Protest-Hit Lebanon, Debate Tents Draw in the Street
Lebanon’s outgoing PM backs businessman to replace him

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 03-04/2019
Iraq Parties in Talks over New PM as US Urges Probe in Protest Violence
Iran Still Selling Oil Despite US Sanctions
Macron Says Turkey 'Sometimes Works with ISIS Proxies'
Haniyeh, Nakhaleh in Cairo to Discuss ‘Long Truce’ with Israel
Oman FM Calls from Tehran for Regional Conference to Discuss Gulf Security
Putin’s Envoy Tells Assad Russia Supports ‘Recapturing All Syrian Territories’
Turkey Defends Agreements with Libya’s GNA
Israeli PM Cancels Trip to London

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 03-04/2019
Lebanon’s Iranian Cancerous Occupation and The Required Solutions/Elias Bejjani/December 03/2019
Lebanon: suicide of indebted father sparks anger as economic woes grow/Sunniva Rose/The National/December 0/2019
The US should cooperate with Russia to get Iran out of Lebanon/Basem Shabb/Al Arabia/December 03/2019
The True Value of Lebanon’s Armed Forces/Robert G. Rabil/The National Interest/December 03/2019
Lebanese Protests Place Hizbullah In A Bind – Part I: Hizbullah’s Hostility To The Protests And The Reasons Behind It/H. Varulkar and C. Jacob/MEMRI/December 03/2019
Lebanese Protests Place Hizbullah In A Bind – Part II: Hizbullah’s Position On Protests Evokes Unusually Harsh Criticism Among Its Supporters, Prompts Wave Of Resignations From Pro-Hizbullah Daily ‘Al-Akhbar’
H. Varulkar and C. Jacob/MEMRI/December 03/2019
*With Brutal Crackdown, Iran Is Convulsed by Worst Unrest in 40 Years/Farnaz Fassihi and Rick Gladstone/The New York Times/December 03/2019
Objectivity and Partnership/Samir Atallah/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 03/2019
How Palestinian Leaders Sabotage Palestinians' Interests/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/December 03/2019
France to Gulf countries: Macronian Multilateralism or Anglo-American alliance/Omar Al-Ubaydli/Al Arabia/December 03/2019
Venture capital investments: The risks and advantages/Dimah Talal Alsharif/Arab News/December 03, 2019
OPEC+ likely to continue regardless of Russian oil executives’ statements/Faisal Faeq/Arab News/December 03, 2019
Iraq on difficult but not impossible journey to reform/Osama Al-Sharif /Arab News/December 03/2019
International players finally acting on Red Sea security/Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/December 03/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 03-04/2019
Lebanon’s Iranian Cancerous Occupation and The Required Solutions
سرطان الإحتلال الإيراني للبنان والحلول الدولية المطلوبة
Elias Bejjani/December 03/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/81086/elias-bejjani-lebanons-iranian-cancerous-occupation-and-the-required-solutions-%d8%b3%d8%b1%d8%b7%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d8%ad%d8%aa%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7/
Lebanon’s current problem is the cancerous Hezbollah’s Iranian Occupation that is systematic, and since 1982 has been covertly and overtly devouring Lebanon and everything that is Lebanese in all domains and on all levels.
The Solution is through the UN declaring Lebanon a rogue-failed country and the strict implementation of the three UN Resolutions addressing Lebanon’s
ongoing dilemma of occupation:
The Armistice agreement
The 1559 UN Resolution
The 1701UN Resolution.
All other approaches, no matter what, will only serve the occupying Mullah’s vicious scheme of destroying Lebanon and strengthening its ironic, terrorist grip on the Lebanese.
All Pro-Lebanon’s Freedom demonstrations in any country in the Diaspora that are carried on by the Lebanese MUST call for this only International solution.
Meanwhile, yes, Lebanon and the Lebanese are facing very serious crises, hardships and problems in all life sectors; e.g., poverty, unemployment, corruption, drug trafficking, money laundering, politicization of the judiciary, electricity shortage, a scandalous disarray in trash collection, lack of health benefits, education, and numerous social services … and the list goes on and on.
BUT, non of these hardships in any way or at any time will be solved as long as the terrorist Iranian Hezbollah remains occupying the country and terrorizing its people. At the same time, the majority of Lebanese officials, politicians and political parties are actually the enemies of both Lebanon and its citizens.
In this context, President Michael Aoun, His son-in-law, the FM, Jobran Bassil, Amin Gymael and his son Sami, PM, Saad Hariri, Druze leader Walid Jumblat, House Speaker Nabih Berri, Lebanese Forces Party leader Samir Geagea, Slieman Frangea and many other politicians, as well
as numerous topnotch clergymen from all denominations are all cut from the same garment of oligarchic, narcissism, trojanism, greed, and feudalism in their mentality and education.
They all, with no sense of patriotism, have succumbed to the Hezbollah’s Iranian savage occupation.
They all and each from his status and based on his capacity and influence, have traded Lebanon’s independence, freedom, decision making process and sovereignty with mere personal power and financial gains.
In reality, they have sold their country to the occupier, Hezbollah, and with no shame have accepted the status of Dhimmitudes, puppets, tools, trumpets, cymbals and mouthpieces for the terrorist occupier. They betrayed, and still betraying, the country and their own people.
In this realm, the Lebanese demonstrators who are loudly shouting the Slogan, “All of them” are 100% right and are righteously witnessing for the truth because all of the above political and official prominent figures are practically mere merchants with numbed consciences.
All Of Them definitely means all of them.
It is worth mentioning that the Lebanese constitution is ideal for the nature of the multi-cultural and multi-religious denominational composition of the mosaic of diversified Lebanese society.
The governing disasters that have been targeting and hitting Lebanon since the early seventies has nothing to do with the great and ideal covenantal (unwritten pact) constitution, but with the foreign occupations and the oligarchic Lebanese corrupted officials and politicians.
My fellow patriotic and God fearing Lebanese from all religious denominations and all walks of life in both Lebanon and the Diaspora, stand tall and steadfast like our cedars. Do not lose faith or give up on hope, and never ever forget that our beloved, country, Lebanon is holy.
Yes, Lebanon is holy and has been blessed by Almighty God since he created man and woman and put them on earth.
Pray for our oppressed and occupied country and that Almighty God shall always guard, protect and defend it through His saints and angels.

Aoun on National Day for Integration of People with Special Needs: Rights of this segment should not be neglected
NNA/December 03/2019
President of the Republic, General Aoun, stressed on the National Day for the Integration of People with Special Needs, that the rights of this segment should not be neglected, but that all efforts should be made to ensure them for their dignity and their natural interaction with the society.
President Aoun stressed his belief in the importance of strengthening frameworks for the integration of people with special needs, especially in the fields of study and work, to benefit of their own energies, and to provide the necessary support for them and their families.
The President said that he is exerting efforts to solve the current crisis, which affects institutions and associations dealing with the affairs of people with special needs, despite the complexities and difficult circumstances in the country, because this file cannot wait for solutions and clearing problems.
On the other hand, Aoun continued his meetings and contacts to address the current political and economic situation and followed up the work of Ministries.
In this framework, President Aoun received the Minister of Displaced Affairs Ghassan Atallah, who said after the meeting: "I visited the President of the Republic to put him in the latest atmosphere concerning the files of the Ministry of Displaced, and to prepare all the final schedules that I committed to according to the plan that we set, as well as to update his excellency on files that were completed in the caretaker period, Especially in the evacuation clause that we have taken upon us, which is completed and its funds are secured by the Council of Ministers".
"I also put President Aoun in the atmosphere of the rest of the files that were prepared to be ready when securing funds to be paid quickly, as well as the work of the Ministry in general. The meeting was special" Atallah stated.
Asked whether the appropriations of the Ministry of Displacement had been transferred to it, Minister Atallah explained that his ministry is using the funds that were allocated before taking over its responsibilities, "Because the appropriation of the 40 billion, allocated in the 2019 budget, have not yet been transferred from the Ministry of Finance to our ministry's fund" Atallah said.
President Michel Aoun then received the head of the "Arab Unity Party", former Minister Wiam Wahhab, and discussed with him the general situation and recent developments. Wahab explained that he had discussed, with the President, the social conditions and the suffering of people from high prices and lack of control of commercial enterprises. He stated that "People are complaining about the greed of politicians and about traders for their livelihood.""President Aoun is in a hurry to start parliamentary consultations, the problem is with the others" Wahhab concluded.
The President met the head of the Association of Banks, Dr. Salim Sfeir, and discussed with him banking and financial affairs. President Aoun met a delegation from "Dialogue and Bridges", and answered their questions stressing that the coming days will carry positive developments.
The President stressed on the work to find appropriate solutions to various aspects of the crisis, and reiterated the continuation of the fight against corruption and the call for citizens to contribute to the detection of corrupt individuals and manipulators of the livelihood of citizens.
The President focused on the role of the judiciary, after the recent appointments, that will help to hold perpetrators accountable and achieve justice. On the other hand, President Aoun congratulated the Chairperson of the European Commission, Mrs. Ursula von der Leyne, on her election and the confidence she received from the European Parliament, wishing her success in her responsibilities "To preserve the spirit of constructive cooperation between EU countries and their distinctive historical heritage."
The President expressed Lebanon's pride in its relations with the European Union, and its efforts to "strengthen partnership with it to achieve the goals we meet around, which are based on the promotion of international peace and development, and to strengthen cooperation in the political, economic, cultural, humanitarian, and other fields".
President Aoun also received a cable of congratulations on Independence Day from Iranian President, Sheikh Hassan Rouhani, wishing Lebanon further prosperity and pride for the Lebanese. President Rouhani wrote: "I am confident, as before, that the initiatives of your Excellency, officials and the Lebanese people, will result in increased stability, security and progress for your country. The Islamic Republic of Iran, as always, will spare no effort to promote bilateral cooperation, in line with the common interests of the two countries." The President also sent condolences to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdul Aziz, condoling the death of Royal Highness, Prince Miteb bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud.

Aoun Promises 'Positive Developments' amid Progress in Govt. Talks
Naharnet/December 03/2019
President Michel Aoun on Tuesday announced anew that “the coming days will carry positive developments,” as talks to name a new premier reportedly made major progress. Aoun voiced his remarks during a meeting with a delegation from the Dialogue and Bridges group. Al-Jadeed TV meanwhile reported that “an agreement has been reached on the broad lines of the upcoming techno-political government, pending the continuation of the consultations with Samir Khatib, whose nomination is still ongoing until the moment.”And as media reports said Khatib had met with Aoun and Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil in Baabda on Tuesday morning, presidential palace sources denied that the meeting took place, saying such a meeting might be held after reaching “an agreement with the rest of politicians.”MTV however insisted that the meeting took place, quoting sources who participated in the talks. And as al-Jadeed said that Bassil is insisting on the energy portfolio and Speaker Nabih Berri is clinging to the finance portfolio, the TV network said Ali Hassan Khalil is expected to be in the new government but this time as a state minister. The interior portfolio will meanwhile go to a technocrat figure close to caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri, al-Jadeed said. “The parliamentary consultations will likely be held on Thursday and this is hinging on the outcome of Bassil’s meeting with Khatib,” MTV reported. MTV said General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim had accompanied Khatib to the Baabda Palace where they met with Aoun and Bassil, adding that “an agreement was reached at the end of the talks on holding another meeting between Khatib and Bassil.”“The stance that Bassil will voice after the meeting of the Strong Lebanon bloc today will determine how things will move forward,” MTV said. The TV network added that “Hariri has reportedly said that he is willing to publicly endorse Samir Khatib for the post but only after setting a date for the parliamentary consultations and this is the point of contention.”

Details of New Government's Line-Up Emerge
Naharnet/December 03/2019
The new government will be techno-political and will consist of 24 ministers – six political figures as state ministers and 18 technocrats and representatives of the protest movement, media reports said on Tuesday evening, as the engineer and businessman Samir Khatib emerged as a consensus candidate for the PM-designate post. “The ministers Ali Hassan Khalil, Mohammed Fneish and Salim Jreissati will certainly return as state ministers in the new government, while Speaker Nabih Berri is clinging to the finance portfolio, PM Saad Hariri is insisting on the interior portfolio and Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil is clinging to the energy portfolio,” al-Jadeed TV quoted sources as saying. “Six seats will go to the popular protest movement while two seats will be allocated to the Druze community, and if (Progressive Socialist Party chief Walid) Jumblat refuses to participate, one of the seats will go to the Lebanese Democratic Party while the other will go to the protest movement,” the sources added. As for the Christian share, seven seats will go to the Free Patriotic Movement and President Michel Aoun, a seat will go to the Tashnag Party, a seat to the Marada Movement and three will go to the protest movement, the sources said. “No agreement has been reached on granting the government any extraordinary powers and it will work on devising a new electoral law,” the sources went on to say.

Hariri: I Support Samir Khatib and Technocrats Will Represent Me in Govt.
Naharnet/December 03/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Tuesday publicly announced that he endorses the nomination of the engineer and businessman Samir Khatib for the PM-designate post. “I support Samir Khatib but some details remain pending and I will not take part in the government,” Hariri told reporters following a meeting with Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat at the Center House. "Everyone is seeking to overcome this difficult stage," Hariri added. In response to another question, he said that he has not set any conditions and that "the Prime Minister is the one who forms the government."
Asked whether he will participate in the government, Hariri said: "Not through political figures but through technocrats."Media reports have said that Hariri will hold a decisive meeting at night Tuesday with the political aides of Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
“Tonight (Ali Hassan) Khalil and (Hussein) al-Khalil will meet with Hariri. If he pledges to them that he will endorse Samir Khatib, the (parliamentary) consultations (to name the PM-designate) will be held within days,” the journalist Salem Zahran, who is close to Hizbullah, tweeted.
“As for (Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid) Jumblat, he has taken a final decision to take part in a techno-political government in which Hizbullah would be represented,” Zahran added. Hizbullah’s al-Manar TV later reported that Hariri will meet with Ali Hassan Khalil and Hussein Khalil to “put the final touches ahead of designating a premier and forming the government.”Political talks to name a premier-designate have reportedly made major progress over the past few hours, amid a reported meeting between Khatib, President Michel Aoun and Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil. Khatib heads one of Lebanon's largest engineering and contracting companies and did not hold any political roles in the past. Over the past weeks, politicians failed to agree on the shape and form of a new government. Hariri had insisted on heading a government of technocrats, while his opponents, including Hizbullah, want a Cabinet made up of both experts and politicians. It was not clear how the protesters who have been demonstrating against widespread corruption and mismanagement in the country would respond to the possible formation of the government. The frustrated protesters have resorted to road closures and other tactics to pressure politicians into responding to their demands for a new government. They have insisted that a new Cabinet be made up of independent figures that have nothing to do with the ruling elite that have been running the country since the 1975-90 civil war ended. On Tuesday evening, a number of protesters staged a sit-in outside Khatib's residents in Beirut's Tallet al-Khayyat area to reject his reported nomination for the PM post.

Hariri receives Jumblatt, says he supports Khatib’s designation
NNA/December 03/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri received this evening at the Center House the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, former MP Walid Jumblatt, accompanied by Minister Wael Abou Faour, in the presence of former Minister Ghattas Khoury. The meeting focused on the political developments in the country. Upon leaving the Center House, Jumblatt refused to make any statement. Hariri said in a chat with reporters that he supports the designation of Engineer Samir Khatib for the Premiership, but there are still some details to finalize and everyone is seeking to overcome this difficult stage.
In response to another question, he said that he did not set conditions and that the Prime Minister is the one who forms the government.
Question: Will you participate in the government?
Hariri: Not through political figures but through technocrats.

Woman in Tripoli attempts to set herself on fire over her living conditions
NNA/December 03/2019
A Lebanese woman, identified as Fatima al-Mustafa, from the Tabbaneh area in Tripoli, on Tuesday attempted to set herself on fire at Abdel Hamid Karami Square, due to her simmering living conditions. However, young men from "City Guards" intervened and managed to prevent her from doing so. The young men took her to their Center at the Square. It is to note that Al Mustafa is homeless living in the street with her grandson for 40 days, and suffering from malnutrition and several diseases.

Army Commander chairs meeting of high level steering committee of assistance program to protect land border security
NNA/December 03/2019
Lebanese Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, on Tuesday presided over the meeting of the high-level steering committee of the Assistance Program for the protection of the Lebanese land borders, in Yarzeh, in presence of US Ambassador to Lebanon, Elizabeth Richard, UK Ambassador to Lebanon, Chris Rampling, Canadian Ambassador, Emmanuelle Lamoureux, along with members of the joint work team. Richard and Rampling lauded the significant performance and achievements of the military in controlling the Lebanese border and countering terrorist organizations, and commended the efforts of the joint work team to strengthen the special regiments' capacities for border protection. The US and UK ambassadors also confirmed their countries' continued support for the army to carry out its tasks in defense of Lebanon and in preservation of its stability and territorial integrity. Ambassador Lamoureux, for her part, expressed delight in contributing to the success of this project. General Aoun, in turn, expressed his confidence in the completion of the implementation of the program, based on the ability of the army officers and military to deal with any new equipment or weapon with high professionalism, and the commitment of friendly countries to continue to provide quality support to the army, in addition to the common goals of all sides, especially the continuation of the war on terror. The army commander also thanked the US and British authorities for continuing to implement the special assistance program to equip land border regiments, and thanked the Cabadian authorities for joining this program.

Bassil: Govt. Success More Important than Our Presence in It
Naharnet/December 03/2019
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Tuesday announced that the success of the new government is more important than the presence of his movement in it. “If some believe that our presence in the government would prevent salvation or impede the electricity plan, we are willing to stay outside it,” Bassil said after a periodic meeting for the Strong Lebanon bloc. “Nominating a premier, our participation in the government and granting it our confidence depend on how much it can be successful,” he pointed out. “We cannot imagine the presence of a government that would stand idly by towards corruption,” Bassil added. Noting that the FPM wants a government in which it can place its confidence, the FPM leader said he wants the new government to succeed in boosting the economy and preserving security. “We hope that we are nearing a happy ending and the president is using his powers wisely and calmly,” he said about the ongoing talks to name a premier-designate. “From the beginning, our demand was the formation of a government of technocrats with political backgrounds but this demand was not accepted,” he reminded. Bassil also stressed that “the formation of the government is a priority in order to relaunch the economic cycle.”“We are not obstructing but rather facilitating the formation of the government to the extent of self-elimination,” he said. Bassil added: “We are not clinging to seats but rather to fighting corruption.”Noting that the new government will respect the National Pact in its structure, the FPM leader stressed that “no one wants to eliminate the other.”He added: “We have borne a lot of false accusations and remained silent in order not to obstruct the situation and in order to end the state of the absence of a government to move to another stage in which work would begin.”

Jumblat Says Haggles over Nominee for PM ‘Unconstitutional’
Naharnet/December 03/2019
Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat on Tuesday said the ongoing debate to pick a PM before the binding parliamentary consultations was “unconstitutional.” “The binding parliamentary consultations must be held in line with regulations. Everything happening now is unconstitutional,” said Jumblat from Ain el-Tineh where he met with Speaker Nabih Berri. Asked whether he supports Samir Khatib, a nominee for the premiership post to succeed outgoing PM Saad Hariri, he said: “I am not the one who nominates Samir Khatib or any other. This is unconstitutional.”According to the constitution, the President of the Republic designates the Prime Minister in consultation with the Speaker based on binding parliamentary consultations, the content of which he shall formally disclose to the latter. Hariri's outgoing cabinet remains in a caretaker capacity as leaders haggle over the next government make-up. Hariri resigned on October 29 bowing to the people’s demands. Demonstrations demanding an overhaul of Lebanon's entire political system have rocked the small Mediterranean country since mid-October, President Michel Aoun, whose powers include initiating parliamentary consultations to appoint a cabinet, has yet to schedule such talks. On his ties with Berri, Jumblat said: “It has been a while since my last visit to Berri because of the developments in the country, and I don't want anyone to misinterpret this. I visited Berri to affirm our historic relations and friendship.”
Jumblat concluded by saying he is scheduled to meet Hariri later today.

Protesters in Tripoli Block Roads, State and Public Institutions
Naharnet/December 03/2019
Protesters blocked several roads in the northern city of Tripoli and gathered outside state institutions as Lebanon’s uprising against the entire political class enters day 48. Trash bins, barriers and stones were used to block the roads and prevent employees from reaching schools and offices, the National News Agency said. NNA said that Lebanese army troops intervened immediately and embarked on opening all the roads. Only the roads leading to al-Nour Square in the city remain blocked since the uprising erupted on October 17. Moreover, students of the Lebanese University in Tripoli’s al-Bahsas staged a sit-in outside the university's campus. They sat on the ground preventing vehicles and buses from driving into the campus, said NNA. A number of other protesters blocked the entrance of the city's technical institute to protest against difficult living conditions and manipulations of the US dollar exchange rate.Road blockages renewed on Tuesday as protesters blocked overnight the Naameh highway, south of Beirut. The Lebanese army said in a statement on Tuesday that several troops were injured when protesters hurled stones at soldiers opening Naameh highway. The army said that protesters in the town of Naameh fired bullets from a pistol the night before. It says that made the troops fire in the air to disperse the protesters. Mounting debt sparked a social media outcry in the protest-hit country, where weeks of political and economic turmoil have raised alarm. A man committed suicide on Sunday in the eastern border town of Arsal because he could not pay outstanding medical bills for his cancer-stricken wife. His suicide sparked a social media outcry in the protest-hit country. An unprecedented anti-government protest movement has gripped Lebanon since October 17, fuelled in part by deteriorating living conditions.
The World Bank has warned of an impending recession that may see the number of people living in poverty climb from a third to half of the population. Unemployment, already above 30 per cent for young people, would also go up, it said. Prime Minister Saad Hariri's cabinet resigned two weeks into the protest movement, bowing to popular pressure. But the country's deeply divided political class has yet to form a new cabinet, frustrating demonstrators who have remained mobilised.

Hundreds of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon Return Home
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 03/2019
Hundreds of Syrian refugees have headed home in the first batch to leave Lebanon since protests broke out in the small Arab country more than a month ago. Since the early hours of Tuesday, scores of Syrians boarded buses in several locations in Lebanon before heading back to their hometowns in war-torn Syria. Vanessa Moya of the U.N. refugee agency known as UNHCR, said some 225 Syrian refugees were scheduled to head back to Syria, raising the number to about 27,000 refugees who have returned to Syria over the past two years. Thousands of Syrians have returned home from Lebanon since June 2018 as calm returns to parts of Syria. Lebanon is hosting some 1 million Syrian refugees who fled their country after the war broke out eight years ago.

Protesters Throw Stones at Troops, Injuring Some
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 03/2019
The Lebanese army says protesters have hurled stones at soldiers opening a highway south of Beirut, injuring several troops. The army said in a statement on Tuesday that one of the protesters in the town of Naameh fired bullets from a pistol the night before. It says that made the troops fire in the air to disperse the protesters. Across Lebanon, protesters have been holding demonstrations since Oct. 17, demanding an end to widespread corruption and mismanagement by the political class that has ruled the country for three decades.Protesters have resorted to road closures and other tactics to pressure politicians into responding to their demands for a new government after Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned more than a month ago, meeting a key demand of the demonstrators.

Suicide of Unemployed Man Strikes a Chord in Crisis-Hit Lebanon
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 03/2019
A suicide in Lebanon committed over a small debt sparked a social media outcry in the protest-hit country, where weeks of political and economic turmoil have raised alarm. Naji Fliti, a 40-year-old father of two, committed suicide outside his home in the eastern border town of Arsal on Sunday because he could not pay outstanding medical bills for his cancer-stricken wife, his relative told AFP on Monday. The death resonated with many on social media, who blamed the country's under-fire political class for failing to address a months-long economic downturn that has resulted in inflation, swelling unemployment and fears of a currency devaluation. "He is a victim of this regime, of this political class and their financial and monetary policies," Doumit Azzi Draiby, an activist, said on Twitter. An unprecedented anti-government protest movement has gripped Lebanon since October 17, fueled in part by deteriorating living conditions.
The World Bank has warned of an impending recession that may see the number of people living in poverty climb from a third to half of the population. Unemployment, already above 30 percent for young people, would also go up, it said. Prime Minister Saad Hariri's cabinet resigned two weeks into the protest movement, bowing to popular pressure. But the country's deeply divided political class has yet to form a new cabinet, frustrating demonstrators who have remained mobilized. Public fury was fueled further following Fliti's death. "Our anger is as strong as our determination to change this deadly and corrupt state," Ghassan Moukheiber, a former lawmaker, said on Twitter, attaching a picture of the deceased. Fliti, a former stone quarry worker, had been unemployed for the past two months because of a crunch in demand for one of the town’s main exports, his cousin Hussein told AFP on Monday."He is a victim of the economic situation," Hussein said. "The blame is squarely on the corrupt political class that brought us here."

Syrian Pound Hits New Black Market Low amid Liquidity Crunch in Lebanon
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 03/2019
The value of the Syrian pound on the black market sank to 1,000 to the dollar at some money changers Tuesday, marking a new record low for the nosediving currency. The drop comes amid a spiralling liquidity crunch in neighbouring Lebanon, which has long served as a conduit for foreign currency entering the heavily sanctioned government-held areas of Syria. One currency exchange office in the Syrian capital Damascus told AFP he was selling dollars on the black market for 1,000 pounds for the first time on Tuesday. A specialised website put the volatile rate at 975 pounds to the dollar -- more than double the official rate of 434 Syrian pounds posted by the central bank on its website. At the start of the war in 2011, the rate stood at around 48 pounds to the dollar. In the Old City of Damascus, a trader who preferred not to give his name said everything from food to transport had become more expensive in recent weeks. "Prices have doubled in the past two months," the trader said. "Everybody prices their items according to the new dollar exchange rate" on the black market, he explained. Syria analyst Samuel Ramani said the pound had fallen by 30 percent since anti-government protests erupted in Lebanon on October 17. An economic downturn has accelerated since the protests started, and a liquidity crunch has become more acute in a country that has long served as an economic and financial lifeline for dollar-starved Syrian businesses. As Western sanctions tightened on Syria during the war, many in the country have opened businesses in neighbouring Lebanon, stashed their money in its banks and used the country as a conduit for imports. But Lebanese banks started introducing controls on dollar withdrawals over the summer, straining the supply of the greenback to Syrian markets. 

Trump Administration Lifts Hold on Lebanon Security Aid
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 3 December, 2019
US President Donald Trump’s administration has lifted a mysterious “hold” on more than $100 million in security aid for Lebanon, congressional and State Department officials said, more than a month after lawmakers learned the funds were being blocked. As first reported by Reuters, the US State Department told Congress on October 31 that the White House budget office (OMB) and National Security Council had decided to withhold $105 million in foreign military assistance, without providing any explanation. As lawmakers demanded answers from the administration about why the aid had been withheld, some compared it with a similar decision from the administration to withhold nearly $400 million in security assistance to Ukraine that also had been approved by Congress. That decision has been at the center of an impeachment inquiry into Trump. Members of Congress and US diplomats had strongly opposed the move to withhold the aid to Beirut, saying it was crucial to support Lebanon’s military as it grappled with instability within the country and the region. Congressional aides said on Monday the administration had still provided no explanation for the decision to withhold the money, which had been approved by Congress and the State Department. They said the OMB released the hold last Wednesday and the administration had begun to “obligate” it, or finalize contracts for how it should be spent. A senior State Department official confirmed that the money had been released but declined to provide an explanation for why it was suspended or why it was released, beyond referring to recent comments by Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale. Hale said during congressional testimony that there had been some disagreements about the efficacy of US aid to the Lebanese armed forces. On Monday, the senior State official said on a conference call with reporters that Lebanon’s army is “an excellent partner to the United States” in fighting extremism. Lebanon also houses thousands of refugees from war in neighboring Syria.

In Protest-Hit Lebanon, Debate Tents Draw in the Street
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 3 December, 2019
A secular state, early elections, solving poverty. Every evening, Sarah al-Ghur joins other residents of Lebanon's second city Tripoli to debate how to fix her protest-gripped country. "I'd rather take part in the discussions than applaud or shout out slogans," says the 32-year-old in the city's al-Nour square, reported AFP. After years of disillusionment and apathy, a free-falling economy and anti-government protests have spurred Lebanese back into political debate. Across the Mediterranean country, squares where protesters have denounced mismanagement and corruption have also become centers of spontaneous discussion.
In Tripoli, Ghur walks between debate tents, stopping outside one where dozens of people are discussing a "roadmap for the revolution". Men and women of all ages sit on the floor, huddle on benches, or stand arms crossed, listening to the latest speaker. Nearby, protesters revel to the sound of patriotic tunes and techno beats. "I've discovered laws I knew nothing about," says Ghur, her hair trimmed short and wearing a dress. "Now I'm more aware of my rights and my duties," she says, in an impoverished city that has emerged at the forefront of the protests.
A young protester takes the microphone to say he thinks the "popular revolution" must evolve towards "political dialogue". He calls for "early parliamentary elections", as a first step towards an overhaul of the political system. 'They'd lost all trust' Every evening from 5 pm to 9 pm, Tripoli residents gather under the tents to rebuild their country one idea at a time.
University professors, activists or even economists are often in attendance. They talk of secularism and sectarianism, in a country whose legacy from a devastating 1975-91 civil war is a political system that seeks to maintain a fragile balance of power between the myriad of religious communities.
They discuss poverty, in a country where around a third of the population are poor, and the World Bank warns that proportion could soon rise to half. But they also discuss what they view as the questionable independence of the judiciary, corruption, plummeting public funds, and sometimes urban planning.
In Tripoli, half of all residents already live at or below the poverty line.
Some six weeks into the protest movement, demonstrators in the northern city have continued to gather on a daily basis, even as numbers dwindle in other parts of Lebanon. The government resigned on October 29, but no concrete measures have been taken to form a new cabinet since.
Philosophy professor Hala Amoun says that, before the protests, most Lebanese had long given up on any political activity. "They'd lost all trust in the political class," she said in classical Arabic. Lebanese have long complained of endless power cuts, gaping inequality, unemployment, and alleged official graft.
But in October, a proposed tax on calls via free phone applications such as Whatsapp, pushed them over the edge and onto the streets.
'Meaning of a revolution'
"This revolution is people becoming more aware," said the woman, who appeared in her forties, wrapped in a warm red coat. "But taking to the streets was not enough. They felt they needed to understand, to know more." Every evening, she heads down to the square to help dissect the "structural problems" of political power in Lebanon. "Lebanese are hungry for knowledge," she says. "It's as if they needed to re-examine their economic, social and political reality, to understand how their political and sectarian leader is controlling their life."
Nadim Shakes, a doctor, is one of the proud initiators of the debate evenings, which he calls "awareness raising conferences".
The aim is to "think about the country's future, what will happen after this revolution," says the 47-year-old, wearing a dark blue jacket over a slightly unbuttoned shirt. Around the tent, young participants sit together in small groups, chatting in hushed tones or raising their voices when they grow excited or want to make a point. In one corner, students discuss whether or not they should continue an open-ended strike that will make them lose a year of lectures at university. Noha Raad, a 49-year-old Arabic language teacher, said she was delighted to be learning something new every evening.
"People need to be made aware," she says, dressed in a flowery shirt and blue cardigan.But mostly, she said, "they made us understand the meaning of a revolution".

Lebanon’s outgoing PM backs businessman to replace him
Associated Press/December 03/2019
Hariri last week withdrew his candidacy for the premiership, saying he hoped to clear the way for a solution to the political impasse amid nearly eight weeks of anti-government protests
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s outgoing Prime Minister Saad Hariri said Tuesday he supports the nomination of a prominent contractor to become the country’s next premier, a move that will likely pave the way for the formation of a new Cabinet amid a severe economic and financial crisis.
Hariri last week withdrew his candidacy for the premiership, saying he hoped to clear the way for a solution to the political impasse amid nearly eight weeks of anti-government protests. Speaking to reporters Tuesday night, Hariri said he backs Samir Khatib to become the country’s next prime minister adding that “there are still some details and God willing something good” will happen. Hariri added that “everyone is trying to pass through this difficult period.”Khatib heads one of Lebanon’s largest engineering and contracting companies and did not hold any political roles in the past.
Over the past weeks, politicians failed to agree on the shape and form of a new government. Hariri had insisted on heading a government of technocrats, while his opponents, including the militant group Hezbollah, want a Cabinet made up of both experts and politicians.
Asked if he is going to take part in the new Cabinet, Hariri said: “I will not nominate political personalities but experts.”
It was not clear how the protesters who have been demonstrating against widespread corruption and mismanagement in the country would respond to the possible formation of the government. The frustrated protesters have resorted to road closures and other tactics to pressure politicians into responding to their demands for a new government.
They have insisted that a new Cabinet be made up of independent figures that have nothing to do with the ruling elite that have been running the country since the 1975-90 civil war ended. President Michel Aoun now is expected to call for binding consultations with heads of parliamentary blocs to name the new prime minister. But since Hariri, the most powerful Sunni leader in the country said he will back Khatib, the contractor is widely expected to get the post. According to Lebanon’s power sharing system implemented since independence from France in 1943, the president has to be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister should be a Sunni and the parliament speaker a Shiite. Cabinet and parliament seats are equally split between Christians and Muslims.
Earlier in the day, outgoing Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil hinted that he will not be part of the new government telling reporters that “the success of the Cabinet is more important than our presence in it.”The apparent breakthrough comes as Lebanon is passing through its worst economic and financial crisis in decades with one of the highest debt ratios in the world, high unemployment and an expected contraction in the economy in 2020. Local banks have imposed capital control measures unseen before in the country known for its free market economy. The possible breakthrough came a day after protesters hurled stones at soldiers while opening a highway south of Beirut, injuring several troops. The Lebanese army said in a statement on Tuesday that one of the protesters in the town of Naameh fired bullets from a pistol the night before adding that the shooting made the troops fire in the air to disperse the protesters.

Lebanon: suicide of indebted father sparks anger as economic woes grow
Sunniva Rose/The National/December 0/2019
The man was one of around 6,000 in the area laid off from the quarrying industry due to declining sales
 An unemployed debt-ridden Lebanese father of two died by suicide on Sunday in the remote north-east town of Arsal as the country sinks deeper in an economic and financial crisis. Local officials told The National that Naji Fleity, 40, took his own life when he was unable to provide for his family after losing his job at a local stone quarry two months ago. Fleity’s last conversation was with his six-year-old daughter, who asked him for 1,000 Lebanese pounds ($0.67; Dh2.45) to buy a manoushe, a popular Lebanese street food similar to a pizza, Rima Kronbi, deputy mayor of the small rural community on the Syrian border told The National on Monday.
She said he told his daughter he did not have the money and later that day took his life. Fleity left the army six years ago to look after his first wife, who was diagnosed with cancer. He had two wives and two children. Ms Kronbi, like Fleity’s family and many in Lebanon, are linking his death to the worsening financial situation that sparked mass rallies in the middle of October. “The bad economy is putting a lot of pressure on people,” Ms Kronbi told The National. She said that like Fleity about 6,000 employees at local stone quarries, the backbone of the area’s economy, recently lost their jobs due to declining business. Arsal stone quarries cannot compete with cheaper imports from abroad and Lebanese businessmen have stopped investing locally, she said.
For the past year, the national economy has been slowly grinding to a halt, pushing the Lebanese, who are increasingly losing their jobs or receiving only a portion of their monthly salaries, to take to the streets in nationwide protests on October 17. People are demanding that leaders return “the looted money” from the state after years of corruption and nepotism.
The World Bank projects growth this year of -0.2 per cent in Lebanon.
Local media reported that Fleity had debts of 700,000 Lebanese pounds ($462; Dh1,711). But, Mrs Kronbi said that his debts were more substantial although she was not sure of the exact amount. Fleity’s death shocked Lebanon, with local media blaming politicians for neglecting the increasing difficulties faced by Lebanese families. According to the United Nations Development Programme, 27 per cent of Lebanese people live on less than $270 per month. The price of basic goods such as olive oil and cheese has been increasing since banks restricted access to American dollars, used interchangeably with the local currency, in early November. While the official rate is around 1,507 pounds to the dollar, on the black market rates have surpassed 2,000 pounds to the dollar.
Fleity's uncle Mahmoud, quoted by local daily Al Akhbar, said his suicide was “only the beginning of a phenomenon that we will see in the future after people from Arsal, and other Lebanese, lose their pride and dignity”. He berated the Lebanese government, accusing it of “bankrupting” the country “without paying attention to citizens who go hungry and die from unemployment, debt and lack of access to hospitals.” Fleity’s death has sparked an outpouring of anger online with Lebanese people demanding action to form a government that is able to tackle the current crisis after Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on October 29, collapsing the administration. Discussions are yet to begin officially to select a new administration. Jan Kubis, the United Nations Special Co-ordinator for Lebanon, also asked if politicians would ever start tackling the crisis. “How many Naji's, may his soul RIP, will the leaders of Lebanon need to start dealing effectively with the economic & social crisis?” he asked. “How much time they will give themselves before agreeing on the new PM & government that will respond to the cries, concerns & demands of the people?” After some politicians said they were ready to provide support to the Fleity family, Ms Kronbi said they didn’t want charity from outside. “His family will only receive sympathy from locals, nothing from politicians”, she said.In a similar incident in February, father-of-two George Zreik died after setting himself on fire in front of his daughter’s school in north Lebanon after he was unable to pay her fees. At the time, a Kuwaiti politician donated $10,000 to help his family.

The US should cooperate with Russia to get Iran out of Lebanon
باسم الشايب: مطلوب من أميركا أن تتعاون مع روسيا لإخراج إيران من لبنان
Basem Shabb/Al Arabia/December 03/2019
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The US has made it clear it wants to help free Lebanon from Iranian influence, but it cannot do so alone. The protests across the country have weakened Hezbollah, but they are unlikely to diminish Tehran’s influence, especially as the US disengages from the region.
Moderating Iranian influence requires the help of another power, which is credible with the non-Western leaning crowd and enjoys good relations with Lebanon’s neighbors: Russia.
Washington should consider coordinating with Russia to maintain stability and curb Iranian excess in Lebanon.
By challenging the status quo, the protests are a clear danger to the order Hezbollah has meticulously woven for over a decade, enabling its transformation from a non-state actor to a domineering political party. Unlike during the Cedar Revolution of 2005, Hezbollah has not been able to convincingly smear the current protests with accusations of hidden Israeli or US agendas due to their narrative of social justice.
The fact that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have stayed neutral has further compounded Hezbollah’s position, as it shows that Hezbollah’s allies - President Michel Aoun and the Future Patriotic Movement (FPM) - no longer enjoy their previous levels of influence with the LAF. This was evident when the LAF refused to act on the demands of President Aoun to clear the streets and confront the protestors.
Combine these factors with the risk of economic collapse due to a lack of Iranian funding and poor governance, and it is clear that Hezbollah is weakened. But it is far from defeated. Given Iranian intransigence and US disengagement from the region, it will be difficult for Lebanon to get rid of Hezbollah – and Iranian influence – alone. Russia is the ideal partner for the task.
Russia’s strength is that it is a regional power broker in the Levant which has good relations with various rival powers. Since its intervention in Syria, Moscow has been an effective negotiator – it successfully established an Iranian disengagement zone in southern Syria, and was also successful in diffusing the latest Kurdish-Turkish confrontation and negotiating an understanding between the Syrian regime and the Kurdish forces in Syria.
The US could not have achieved this. Russia is better positioned in the Levant because of its neutral stance in the Arab-Israeli conflict and its good relations with various rival powers such as Iran, Israel, Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Lebanon is now a similar case. Unlike the US, Russia has good rapport with all parties, including both the pro-Western and pro-Syrian factions. Despite its recent intervention on behalf of the Syrian regime, Moscow has maintained close ties with Lebanese Sunni factions. It has also forged close ties with various Christian communities, presenting itself as the patron saint of Eastern Christianity.
Russia’s enhanced status as a regional actor does not mean it cannot work the US, in Lebanon or elsewhere. Russian and US influence frequently coexist, and both countries have a vested interest in a strong central government and the stability of Lebanon.
While Russia may work with Iran in Syria, it approaches Lebanon differently to Tehran.
In Lebanon, Russia’s relationship with Hezbollah is rather formal and not a close alliance. Unlike Iran, Russia deals exclusively with the Lebanese authorities and has repeatedly affirmed its support for Lebanon’s sovereignty, in contrast to Iran’s preference for non-state actors.
The US and Russia have successfully coordinated against terrorist activities in Afghanistan and Syria, so there is no reason why they can’t coordinate in Lebanon. Most importantly, with escalating tensions between the US and Iran, both powers are concerned that an Israeli-Iranian confrontation in Lebanon could spill over to Syria. Russia can effectively mediate with the Syrian regime on important issues for Lebanon such as refugees and trade.
Despite these advantages, Washington currently fears that coordinating with Russia in Lebanon would erode American influence.
But American influence is strong due to trade, education, soft power and diaspora connections, as well as close ties to the exclusively US-trained and equipped LAF. This influence survived under Syrian hegemony, and would not be negated by coordinating with Russia.
The current standoff will not rid Lebanon of Iranian influence, and European powers will do little to help. Russia’s position may be vital to leverage against Iran and could be the only way to avert conflict with Israel. For these reasons, US-Russian cooperation is the best way forward for Lebanon.
*Basem Shabb is a former member of the Lebanese parliament.

The True Value of Lebanon’s Armed Forces
روبرت رابيل: القيمة الحقيقة للقوى اللبنانية العسكرية الشرعية
Robert G. Rabil/The National Interest/December 03/2019
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The LAF has been the most respected institution in confessional Lebanon. It is regarded by many as the defender of the country and the patriotic glue that binds the various confessions whose national aspirations have been often at cross purposes.
Alongside a campaign to push for a war with Iran, there is a parallel campaign to undermine Iran’s proxies is equating the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) with Hezbollah. Though the armed forces need to answer and act on some legitimate concerns, this pairing is not only erroneous but also dangerous because it undermines the only institution stabilizing Lebanon.
Patched together into a quilt of various confessional communities, Lebanon gained its independence from France in 1943 and based its national identity and political system in a National Pact (al-Mithaq al-Watani). In fact, a Maronite-Sunni alliance churned out the pact whereby political power would be distributed along religious (confessional) lines and Lebanon’s identity would be characterized by an “Arab face” and manifested by the slogan “No East, No West.” Other communities, especially the Shi’a community given its demographic significance, had little, if any, role in the process of concluding the National Pact. Evidently, the National Pact helped bring about under special circumstances communal conciliation, and to some extent unity. But it neither fostered nor forged a national identity. It was based on a compromise guided by the false assumptions that Muslims would “Arabize” the Christians while Christians would “Lebanonize” Muslims. Lebanon’s weak national identity and quasi-democratic system made the country a lightning rod for almost all political currents sweeping the Arab world since the Arab defeat in the 1948 War and through what Melcolm Kerr famously described the Arab Cold War.
Significantly, though it was influenced by the country’s confessional system, the Lebanese army, known as the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), stood out as an institution welding a nationalist esprit de corps. The LAF has been the most respected institution in confessional Lebanon. It is regarded by many as the defender of the country and the patriotic glue that binds the various confessions whose national aspirations have been often at cross purposes.
Admittedly, since Lebanon’s independence from France in 1943, the LAF has sought to remain a neutral actor on the domestic and foreign levels. More specifically, it sought to serve as a neutral arbiter guaranteeing free elections and political stability, while at the same time maintaining its distance from regional problems, especially the Arab-Israeli conflict. The LAF, for example, remained in its barracks during Lebanon’s brief civil war in 1958, and it neither participated in the 1967 War nor in the 1973 War.
Significantly, following the defeat of the Arab armies in the 1967 War, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), led by Yasser Arafat, increased its militant activities targeting Israel from Lebanon. Broadly speaking, whereas the Christian leadership opposed PLO actions, the Muslim leadership, led by pan-Arabists and leftists, supported the PLO. This polarized the country into two diametrically opposed camps and led to skirmishes between the army and the PLO’s military wing Fatah. Conceding to pressure from Arab leaders, the Lebanese government signed the 1969 Cairo agreement, which essentially allowed the PLO to engage in armed struggle against Israel.
Subsequently, the influx of PLO fighters into Lebanon from Jordan in 1970 following their botched attempt to remove the Jordanian monarch further deepened the country’s polarization. Before long, the country descended into civil war in 1975 and the army disintegrated along confessional lines. In the summer of 1976, Syrian forces entered Lebanon as an Arab Deterrent Force to stop the fighting. In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon and evicted the PLO from Beirut to Tunis. Subsequently, Israel withdrew from Lebanon but not before setting up and occupying a buffer zone on its border. Meanwhile, several attempts were made to restructure the army and rehabilitate its impartial image. But these attempts were doomed to failure insofar the civil war continued relentlessly until Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Seeking the participation of Syrian troops in the U.S.-led international coalition to extract Iraq from Kuwait so as to legitimize the coalition in the eyes of Arabs, Washington green-lighted the complete occupation of Lebanon by Syrian troops. Lebanese troops who resisted the Syrian onslaught were murdered and dozens of army officers and soldiers, following their surrender, were shot point-blank in the courtyard of the Lebanese Defense Ministry in Yarze. Those who were spared were taken to Syrian prisons and are still unaccounted for by the Syrian regime.
The end of the civil war was legitimized by the signing of the Document of National Understanding, known as the Taif Accord, which introduced significant amendments to the Lebanese constitution. The Accord shaped the political system of the Second Republic.
The thrust of political reforms revolved around conferring equal powers to the three high posts in the land, the presidency (Christian), the premiership (Sunni) and the speakership (Shi’a). The other sections dealt mainly with building the armed forces to shoulder their responsibilities in confronting Israeli aggression and taking the necessary measures to liberate all Lebanese territory from Israeli occupation. In line with the Taif Accord’s emphasis on the Lebanese-Syrian special relations, the Syrian and Lebanese presidents in 1991 signed the Treaty of Brotherhood, Cooperation, and Coordination and the Lebanon-Syria Defense and Security agreement, which essentially institutionalized Syrian occupation over Lebanon.
The Syrian regime, through its mukhabarat (intelligence), ruled Lebanon on the basis of a delicate balance between a divide and rule policy and maintaining to more or less a confessional equilibrium in favor of supporting Syrian loyalists. The LAF under Syrian occupation was robbed and depleted of its raison d’etre and power, respectively. Meanwhile, thanks to Iranian and Syrian support, the Shi’a Islamist party Hezbollah enhanced its military power and sanctified its role as a resistance movement against Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. Both Lebanese and Syrian authorities legitimized Hezbollah’s role, thereby turning the Lebanese army an obsolete force.
To be sure, Shi’a ascendency in Lebanon, as led by pro-Syrian Hezbollah, was frowned upon by Muslim and Christian parties, which resented Syrian hegemony in the country. In response, attempts focusing on the army and intelligence and security apparatus were made to counter Hezbollah’s growing power. In particular, the Internal Security Force, under Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri (1992–1998 and 2000–2004) was enlarged, better equipped, and put under the direct control of the prime minister. Trained and equipped by France and the United States, the Internal Security Force was staffed mainly by Sunnis, heightening sectarian bias within state institutions. On the other hand, General Security Directorate was supported by pro-Syrian politicians and often was charged with colluding with Syria. In the meantime, the army experienced selective recruitment, reversing the historic pattern of maintaining a confessional balance within its ranks.
Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 and the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003 upended the regional dynamics in general and Lebanon’s political dynamics in particular. Opposition to Syrian presence in Lebanon grew and peaked with the murder of Hariri in 2005, allegedly by Syria and Hezbollah. Many Lebanese took the street claiming for their independence from Syrian hegemony and launched what came to be known as the Cedar Revolution. This led to the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon and the collapse of the Second Republic. Also, it split the country into two camps, one anti-Syrian, led by the Hariri Future Current and known as the March 14 movement, and the other pro-Syrian and known as the March 8 movement, led by Hezbollah.
Interestingly enough, during the turmoil, acting Prime Minister Omar Karami ordered the LAF to break up the demonstrations. Commander of the Army, Michel Suleiman, defied the order and sought to restore the army’s neutral role. In fact, since the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Beirut attempts have been made to restore the LAF as the flame of national unity. Liberated from Syrian yoke, the LAF has worked hard to restore its neutrality, professionalism and non-bias sectarianism. The LAF resumed its build-up on the basis of an equitable Christian-Sunni-Shi’a recruitment while walking a fine line amidst strong internal divisions between the two rival blocs. During the 2006 summer conflagration between Hezbollah and Israel, the LAF remained largely a spectator, focusing on relief efforts and maintaining law and order. Nevertheless, the LAF lost forty-nine soldiers from Israel’s fire. It’s noteworthy that whereas Israel accused the LAF with providing coordinates to Hezbollah to fire an anti-ship missile at an Israeli corvette, Hezbollah accused the LAF of close cooperation with the U.S. leadership and military.
Significantly, a number of classified documents leaked by Wikileaks revealed that the Lebanese defense ministry and government cooperated and coordinated with the U.S. government to curb the power of Hezbollah. Moreover, leaders from across the country’s confessions virtually aspired that Israel would defeat Hezbollah. In a document dated July 17, 2006, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt stated that “although March 14 must call for a cease-fire in public, it is hoping that Israel continues its military operations until it destroys Hizballah’s military capabilities . . . Then the LAF can replace the IDF once a cease-fire is reached.” A document dated August 7, 2006, revealed that Christian leaders meeting with Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman and Assistant Secretary Charles Welch argued that “The Lebanese government will need to be in a position of strength to deal with Hizballah once the conflict is over . . . To this end, they would support a continuation of the Israeli bombing campaign for a week or two if this were to diminish seriously Hizballah’s strength on the ground.” In the meantime, as revealed by a document dated August 8, 2006, the Defense Minister Elias Murr, confident about a rapid LAF deployment, “stated clearly that the LAF was prepared to hit back at Hizballah if they attempted to fire at Israel or tried to draw Israeli fire by placing launchers near to LAF positions.” Moreover, a document on the same day revealed that Murr “claimed that LAF forces had stopped and seized a truck carrying Hezbollah missiles.”
These documents show that the LAF did not cooperate with Hezbollah; rather it demonstrated the LAF’s indispensable and alternative force to stability and Hezbollah. No sooner, the litmus test of the imperative need of the LAF took place in 2007 when a Salafi-jihadi organization Fath al-Islam took over the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared. Lacking equipment and ammunition, the LAF, despite its vigorous spirit, was virtually incapacitated. Thanks to a swift American supply of weapons and ammunition, the LAF prepared to storm the camp despite a warning from Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah that the camp is a “red line.” Following bloody pitched battles the LAF reclaimed the initiative against and defeated Fath al-Islam. The battle cost the LAF 166 soldiers and dozens wounded. This was the high price that the LAF had to pay. Still, it was a price that elevated the LAF to a popular level beyond reproach or sectarian politicking. Since then, seeing the benefit of the LAF as a force against Al Qaeda and its sister jihadi organizations, Washington began to systematically equip the LAF with defensive weapons and train some of its officers.
This led to a nuanced and contradictory relationship between the LAF and Hezbollah. The popular enhanced stature of the LAF following its costly defeat of the Salafi-jihadi organization Fath al-Islam, coupled with the Lebanese government’s need for U.S. support, forced Hezbollah to look askance at, yet not disrupt, the U.S. training and arming of the LAF. The LAF and Hezbollah, though in principle integral parts of Lebanon’s societal fabric, perceived each other a rival and a threat to its raison d’etre.
Robert G. Rabil is a professor of Political Science at Florida Atlantic University and Francois Alam is an attorney at Law and Secretary General of the Christian Federation of Lebanon and the Levant.
The authors can be followed @robertgrabil and @francoisalam.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/true-value-lebanons-armed-forces-101512?fbclid=IwAR28ue3nETyNOkNwqN4VArsJFUDmla2832gSZjSTJtk3SOUnmfJUl2Garws

Lebanese Protests Place Hizbullah In A Bind – Part I&2: Hizbullah’s Hostility To The Protests And The Reasons Behind It
H. Varulkar and C. Jacob/MEMRI/December 03/2019
تحليل سياسي وثوثيقي من موقع ميمري من جزئين يشرح أسباب عداوة حزب الله للإنتفاضة الشعبية في لبنان
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Introduction
The mass protests in Lebanon over the economic crisis and government corruption, which broke out in October 17, 2019, have placed Hizbullah in a difficult position, because the organization, which for years has been presenting itself as the defender of the oppressed and fighter of corruption, is now an integral part of the government. Hizbullah initially tried to contain the protests, taking a very cautious position regarding them and expressing sympathy for the demonstrators rather than attacking them. This was evident in Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on October 19,[1] and in statements by other Hizbullah officials.
Hizbullah maintained this cautious line for some ten days, apparently in hope that the protests would abate. However, when this failed to occur, the organization changed tack. In a speech he delivered on October 25, Nasrallah presented three No’s: no to deposing the president, no to deposing the government and no to holding early parliamentary elections, thus effectively rejecting the protesters’ three main demands. Nasrallah also claimed that the protests – in which several hundred thousand and perhaps even millions of people have participated, from every part of the country and from all social sectors – are neither authentic nor spontaneous, but are funded by foreign intelligence apparatuses and embassies. He called on the Lebanese not to attend the demonstrations, and urged the protesters to stop blocking roads and allow the country to go back to normal, warning against a possible slide into “chaos.”[2]
Since delivering this speech, Hizbullah, by means of its officials and media, has continued to spread the narrative that the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia are encouraging the protests and even controlling them in order to sow chaos in Lebanon and topple its government, in which Hizbullah is a member, and in order to incite against this organization and its weapons. Things came to a point where, on several occasions, Hizbullah activists violently attacked protesters on the streets.
In the past week, the demonstrations have taken a more violent turn, with clashes breaking out between the supporters of rival parties, resulting in the death of two people and the wounding of dozens. In addition, Hizbullah has begun coming out against the protesters for blocking roads, describing them as “militias of chaos” that are driving the country to civil war, and accusing all those who call for the establishment of a government of technocrats of succumbing to U.S. dictates.
This report describes the bind in which Hizbullah finds itself since the outbreak of the protests, and the reasons for its hostile position towards them.
Mass protest in Lebanon (Source: lebanon24.com, November 11, 2019)
Hizbullah’s Difficult Position And The Reason For Its Hostility Towards The Protests
From the very start, the protests in Lebanon created a problem for Hizbullah that made it difficult for the organization to determine its position on them. Having presented itself as a the champion of the undertrodden and standard bearer of the fight against corruption, especially since the May 2018 parliamentary election, the organization felt the need to express solidarity with the demonstrators, who were protesting the difficult economic situation and demanding to punish corruption and restore stolen public funds. Moreover, the Shi’ites in South Lebanon have taken part in the protests, and demonstrations were held even in strongholds of Hizbullah and its Shi’ite ally, Amal, such as Al-Nabatieh and Tyre. The Shi’ite support for the protests and their demands is another factor that makes it difficult for Hizbullah to oppose them.
However, once it realized that many of the demonstrators’ demands – specifically the demands for the resignation of the president and government and the holding of early parliamentary elections – threatened the organization’s interests and the stability of the government, of which it is a central component, Hizbullah changed its attitude and began attacking the protests.
Hizbullah has several reasons to oppose the current wave of protests:
The organization dominates the current parliament and government, and is therefore uninterested in early parliamentary elections
In the May 2018 parliamentary election, the May 8 Forces, comprising Hizbullah and its allies, won the majority of seats. These results are also reflected in the makeup of the government, in which Hizbullah’s faction – which also includes the Shi’ite Amal movement and the Free National Current led by Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil – has 18 ministers, as opposed to only 11 ministers from the rival March 14 Forces and one minister who is considered independent. Controlling nearly two thirds of the government ministries is the major achievement of the March 8 Forces, which allows it to veto any decision it opposes. Another achievement is that, despite American opposition, Hizbullah received the large-budget health portfolio, with Jamil Jabaq, formerly Nasrallah’s personal physician, serving as minister of health. Yet another achievement was the appointment of Elias Bou Sa’ab, who has been criticized as “identifying with Hizbullah,” as defense minister.[3] Hizbullah is therefore uninterested in early parliamentary elections, which may cause it to lose these achievements.
Hizbullah fears the ouster of President ‘Aoun, Foreign Minister Bassil and Prime Minister Al-Hariri, Who Back It.
The political arrangement that lasted for several years, until the outbreak of the protests, whereby Michel ‘Aoun, a Christian, is president and the Sa’d Al-Hariri, a Sunni who is considered a rival of Hizbullah, is prime minister, actually benefited Hizbullah. In fact, this may be the optimal arrangement, as far as Hizbullah is concerned. President ‘Aoun and his son-in-law, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, head of the Free National Current, which is the largest party in parliament, are both allies of Hizbullah. These two figures lend the organization absolute support, backing its decisions and granting it freedom of action – both in the domestic arena and in the international diplomatic arena vis-à-vis the U.S., which has imposed sanctions on Hizbullah for its terrorist activity. ‘Aoun and Bassil, both of whom are Maronite Christians, effectively serve as a Christian “fig leaf” for Hizbullah and its actions.
Paradoxically, the appointment of Al-Hariri, considered to be a rival of Hizbullah, as prime minister likewise worked in this organization’s favor. Regarded by the international community as an experienced and moderate statesman, Al-Hariri lent the Lebanese government a fairer guise, blurring the reality whereby Hizbullah effectively controls the country and imposes its position in nearly all matters. Al-Hariri thus served as the address for any complaint by the international community, and enabled the international community to continue cooperating with Lebanon, signing agreements with it, and extending aid to it.
Moreover, if in the past Al-Hariri was a vociferous opponent of Hizbullah and expressed harsh criticism of it, in the past few years he has allowed this organization to do as it pleased in the domestic and international arenas, and mostly refrained from speaking out against it. Given this state of affairs, Hizbullah clearly has no interest in placing one of its allies in the role of prime minister, for this would only make trouble for it and attract criticism, making it easier for the international community to take a firm position vis-à-vis Hizbullah and Lebanon as a whole.
Hizbullah fears it will be held responsible for the economic crisis in Lebanon due to the sanctions imposed on it.
The protests in Lebanon were sparked by the government’s intention to raise taxes despite the severe economic crisis in the country, including by taxing WhatsApp calls, a move that enraged many. Although the protests span all of Lebanese society and are not confined to any particular sector, many are convinced that Hizbullah bears much of the responsibility for the economic crisis, due to the U.S. sanctions on it. The crisis has grown even worse since the U.S. increased these sanctions, imposing them on more and more of the organization’s officials and institutions, and on Lebanese banks, and even threatening to extend them Hizbullah’s allies, such as Foreign Minister Bassil.
The most prominent expression of the crisis is a mammoth national debt of $100 billion (almost twice Lebanon’s gross domestic product), which has forced the Lebanese government to enact radical measures and reforms, in order to qualify for the $11 billion international aid package pledged to Lebanon at the April 2016 Cedar Conference in France. Furthermore, in the weeks before the outbreak of the protests, the Lebanese pound plummeted and the market suffered a dollar shortage, which further destabilized the local economy.
In fact, even before the protests broke out, many accused Hizbullah of causing the economic crisis and driving Lebanon towards economic collapse through its activity in the service of Iran.[4] Thus, Hizbullah’s opposition to the protests may also stem from its fear that they could generate further accusations of this sort, and could spark a debate on its status and the status of its weapons, and about its terrorist activity around the world which causes sanctions to be imposed on it and on Lebanon.
The protests have an anti-Iran dimension
Another reason, perhaps the main one, for Hizbullah’s position is that the protests have an anti-Iran dimension. This aspect is hardly visible in the demonstrations themselves, but it is occasionally evident in articles by Lebanese journalists.[5] Furthermore, the wave of protest in Lebanon is concurrent with the one in Iraq, in which opposition to Iran’s involvement in the country is openly expressed. This similarity between the protests in Lebanon and Iraq has been noted by many Arab journalists and analysts. Iran itself, Hizbullah’s patron, regards the protests in both Lebanon and Iraq as an American conspiracy aimed at eroding its influence in these countries, as its officials have claimed, and it is reportedly even acting to stop them. It appears that Iran’s position on the protests largely dictated that of its proxy Hizbullah.
Shi’ites participate in the protests while criticizing Hizbullah and Amal.
As stated, the protests have surprisingly involved even the Shi’ites of South Lebanon, who took to the streets voicing the same slogans and demands as the demonstrators in the rest of the country. Protests were held even in villages and cities where Hizbullah and Amal – Lebanon’s second Shi’ite party, headed by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri – are dominant, such as Al-Nabatieh and Tyre. According to some reports, Hizbullah and Amal were surprised by the scope and violence of the protests in these areas.
In Al-Nabatieh, dozens of demonstrators called out “Nabih Berri is a thief,” and some attacked the offices of the municipality, which is associated with Hizbullah. Dozens of protesters also came to the office of the chairman of Hizbullah’s faction in parliament, Muhammad Ra’ad, and shattered the sign at the entrance, shouting, “The people want to topple the regime.”
Furthermore, protesters came to the home of Amal MP Yassine Jaber and burned a sign bearing his name, and protesters also vandalized the office of Amal MP and political bureau member Hani Qobeisi.
[6] In Bint Jbeil, a demonstration was held in front of the office of Hizbullah MP Hassan Fadlallah.
[7] In Tyre, protesters torched a guest house belonging to Nabih Berri’s wife, Randa Berri.[8]
Hizbullah presumably realized that the participation of the Shi’ite public in the protests, and the accusations of corruption made against it and against its ally Amal, may decrease its popularity among this public, which is its natural support base. Nasrallah therefore called on the supporters of the resistance not to participate in the protests, which indeed led to a significant decrease in their scope.
It appears that all these factors, together, are behind Hizbullah’s decision to oppose the protests and claim that they are funded by foreign elements hostile to the Lebanese state. Things came to the point where, on several occasions, Hizbullah and Amal activists on motorcycles arrived at the scene of demonstrations – especially in Shi’ite-dominated areas but also in Beirut – and tried to forcefully open the roads that the protesters had blocked.
*H. Varulkar is director of research at MEMRI; C. Jacob is a research fellow at MEMRI.
[1] Alahednews.com.lb, October 19, 2019.
[2] Alahednews.com.lb, October 25, 2019.
[3] On Hizbullah’s achievements in the parliamentary elections and government makeup, see MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis No. 1447, As U.S. Secretary Of State Pompeo Prepares To Visit Lebanon, Hizbullah Is In Complete Control Of Lebanese Government – And The March 14 Camp, Saudi Arabia, And U.S. Have Cooperated With It And Come To Terms With The Situation, March 21, 2019.
[4] On this, see MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 8332, Lebanese Politicians, Journalists, Before The Outbreak Of The Current Protest-Wave: It Is Hizbullah That Caused The Economic Crisis In The Country, October 25, 2019.
[5] See Al-Arab (London), November 17, 2019; Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), October 22, 2019, November 12, 2019.
[6] Alarabiya.net, October 18, 2019.
[7] Alarabiya.net, October 18, 2019.
[8] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), October 20, 2019.
https://www.memri.org/reports/lebanese-protests-place-hizbullah-bind-%E2%80%93-part-i-hizbullahs-hostility-protests-and-reasons

Lebanese Protests Place Hizbullah In A Bind – Part II: Hizbullah’s Position On Protests Evokes Unusually Harsh Criticism Among Its Supporters, Prompts Wave Of Resignations From Pro-Hizbullah Daily ‘Al-Akhbar’
H. Varulkar and C. Jacob/MEMRI/December 03/2019
تحليل سياسي وثوثيقي من موقع ميمري من جزئين يشرح أسباب عداوة حزب الله للإنتفاضة الشعبية في لبنان
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/81100/%d8%aa%d8%ad%d9%84%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3%d9%8a-%d9%88%d8%ab%d9%88%d8%ab%d9%8a%d9%82%d9%8a-%d9%86%d8%b4%d8%b1%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%88%d9%82%d8%b9-%d9%85%d9%8a%d9%85%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%88%d9%87/
Introduction
The mass protests in Lebanon over the economic crisis and government corruption, which broke out on October 17, 2019, placed Hizbullah in a bind which made it difficult for the organization to formulate its stance on them. Hizbullah, which for years has been presenting itself as the defender of the oppressed and fighter of corruption, felt compelled to show solidarity with the protesters, who are decrying the difficult conditions in the country and demanding to punish government corruption. The fact that Shi’ites in Lebanon identify with the protests and their demands, and have participated in them, is another factor which makes it difficult for Hizbullah to come out against them. However, once it realized that many of the demonstrators’ demands – specifically the demands for the resignation of the president and government and the holding of early parliamentary elections – posed a threat to the stability of the government, in which Hizbullah is a major component, the organization quickly changed its position. It began attacking the protests, claiming that they are funded by foreign countries, chiefly the U.S. and Israel, with the aim of sowing chaos in Lebanon and harming Hizbullah. Things came to the point where, on several occasions, activists from Hizbullah and its ally, the Shi’ite Amal movement, violently attacked protesters and tried to disperse them.[1]
Hizbullah’s dilemma regarding the protests is also shared by its supporters, especially by journalists with the pro-Hizbullah daily Al-Akhbar, and it appears that several of them do not agree with the Hizbullah position. Broadly speaking, Al-Akhbar adopted Hizbullah’s narrative that the protests had been derailed by foreign elements that took control of them. This claim was made in the paper on a daily basis, including in articles by its editor-in-chief, Ibrahim Al-Amin. However, the doubt expressed by Hizbullah, and especially by its leader Nasrallah, regarding the authenticity of the protests, and in particular the violence of Hizbullah activists towards protesters, apparently did not sit well with some of Al-Akhbar’s writers. Following these violent incidents, the daily took the unusual step of publishing articles harshly critical of Hizbullah, including one by Ibrahim Al-Amin himself, and another by a writer who described himself as a staunch Hizbullah supporter but nevertheless accused the organization of turning a blind eye to government corruption.
Subsequently, after Al-Amin decided to readopt Hizbullah’s position regarding the protests and stop the criticism against it, five Al-Akhbar journalists, some of them senior, resigned in protest of the daily’s bias and its hostility towards the protests. Some two weeks later, two senior reporters with the pro-Hizbullah television channel Al-Mayadeen resigned as well. These reporters gave no specific reason for their resignation, but some speculated that they too were motivated by the channel’s hostile coverage of the protests.
This report reviews the criticism expressed against Hizbullah in Al-Akhbar, and the resignation of the Al-Akhbar journalists.
Al-Akhbar Editor To Nasrallah: Stop The Brutal And Unjust Violence Against Protesters
On October 30, 2019, after Hizbullah and Amal activists attacked protesters in South Lebanon (especially in Al-Nabatieh and Tyre) and Beirut, Al-Akhbar editor-in-chief Ibrahim Al-Amin harshly criticized the attackers, whom he identified as Amal activists only, and called on Nasrallah, Amal’s ally, to prevent the recurrence of such events. He wrote: “Let me take this opportunity to address the attitude of the resistance and its supporters [i.e., the Amal movement] toward some ordinary citizens who, faced with the injustice perpetrated against them, consciously decided… to raise the level of their resistance and to cry out in protest. Employing the usual methods of protest, they expressed their opinion against the government and the corrupt authorities… What happened in Al-Nabatieh, Tyre and central Beirut can be described in only one way: as the ugliest sort of brutality…
“I am personally acquainted with Mr. Hassan Nasrallah. I have known him for a long time and I know his heart and mind. I know how he is [often] hard with himself and his family for the sake of [pursuing] a just cause. I know how often he has restrained himself and remained silent in the face of grave transgressions, just in order to protect the resistance… I know he knows the meaning of manliness, nobility of spirit, and human dignity. I know how much he feels for every child, man and woman, every father and mother, and therefore I ask him: Is it possible that you, [Hassan Nasrallah], will not take the initiative to stop this ongoing injustice your brothers are suffering just because they expressed an opinion that contravenes that of the leader and his associates?
“Let us be clear and honest. The Amal movement is directly and fully responsible [for what happened], from its head [Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri] to its [other] political leaders – ministers, MPs, municipal council members, security officers, clerics and [other] influential figures – as well as the thugs and the army of strongmen who acted to humiliate people and punish them just because they were protesting the [poor] performance of the government, of which Amal forms a sizable part…
“Every [incident in which a] resident of Beirut, South [Lebanon] or the Beqaa Valley was humiliated or pressured in order to prevent him from voicing his opinion, changing his opinion, or leaving his home [and taking to the street] is a barbaric incident that blackens the face of its perpetrators. The offenders must be punished, along with those who are behind their acts of brutality. This demand is no less important than the demands of the poor for a country where justice prevails.”[2]
Lebanese Journalist To Nasrallah In Al-Akhbar Article: Hizbullah Has Ignored The Government’s Corruption; Your Statements Enraged Many Hizbullah Supporters Who Identify With The Protests
Two days later, on November 1, 2019, Al-Akhbar published an article by journalist Maher Abi Nader. After professing support for the resistance and admiration for Nasrallah, he addressed Nasrallah and pointedly accused Hizbullah of turning a blind eye to the corruption of the government in return for the government’s disregard of its weapons. He also condemned the Amal and Hizbullah activists’ “barbaric repression” of demonstrators, and rejected Nasrallah’s doubts regarding the authenticity of the protest, stating that it is a sincere outpouring of frustration by Lebanon’s poor, some of whom are Hizbullah supporters and deserve its sympathy, rather than its hostility.
Abi Nader wrote: “Like you, I was born and grew up in the Al-Nab’a neighborhood, part of the belt of poverty that surrounded Beirut before and after the civil war. Despite the ideological disagreements between us, I, like you, espouse the idea of opposing injustice, oppression, poverty and occupation. I regard you as a leader the likes of which the Lebanese people and Arab nation did not manage to produce for many long decades. I address you with love and appreciation, in a clear and sincere manner.
“First, honorable Sayyed [an honorific title denoting people accepted as descendants of the Prophet Muhammad], I would like to say that the so-called ‘presidential’ arrangement [i.e., the agreement reached in 2016 and implemented until recently, according to which Michel ‘Aoun became president and Sa’d Al-Hariri prime minister], did the resistance a grave injustice. [This agreement] granted the presidency to [Hizbullah’s] ally Gen. Michel ‘Aoun, and the role of prime minister to Sheikh Sa’d Al-Hariri. But the secret part of the arrangement was [an understanding that] the resistance [i.e., Hizbullah] would turn a blind eye to the government’s economic and fiscal policy – namely to the systematic corruption that prevails in the country – and in return, [the government] would ignore the weapons of the resistance and officially legitimize their existence. The first injustice here is the treatment of the weapons of the resistance as weapons of a group, party or sect, rather than as weapons of the homeland… The second injustice is that [the arrangement] transforms the resistance into a guardian of the bastion of corruption and all its components, whether voluntarily or by force of circumstance…
“Honorable Sayyed [Nasrallah], under this ‘presidential’ arrangement, which did the resistance an injustice, you were forced to accept a government whose makeup you could not tolerate… and an economic and fiscal policy [that drove] the country towards the abyss of poverty, hunger, want, unemployment and bankruptcy, until the situation became unbearable… The straw that broke the camel’s back was the decision of the media minister, which was also endorsed by the ministers of the resistance within the government, to tax WhatsApp calls, a free service that is based abroad and which the Lebanese state has no right to tax. This drove the public to take to the streets, regardless of religion, sect or party, [chanting] slogans unprecedented in Lebanon’s history…
“Between [the time of] your first speech after the outbreak of the protests and your second speech, the people’s demands did not change, nor did their pain and hunger. But your position towards the protest movement did change. I agree with you that certain elements and embassies tried to forcefully infiltrate the protest and derail it from its course… but they did not succeed.
“Sayyed [Nasrallah], the calls heard [at the protests] against you and against the resistance were voiced by a small group of demonstrators… a group that represents [forces] that were your partners in the government and your allies in the professional syndicate elections… Resistance members started reacting to this small group… by barbarically and violently repressing protesters in Al-Nabatieh and Tyre, which are strongholds of the resistance, causing some people – including former resistance fighters – to be injured, wounded or imprisoned. Later, dozens of unknown individuals on motorcycles stormed the main center of protests [in Al-Nabatieh and Tyre], waving Hizbullah and Amal flags. [They] also raided the protesters in [Beirut’s] Riad Al-Solh Square, calling out slogans [of support] for you.
“Your latest speech, Sayyed [Nasrallah], enraged people who support, love and cultivate the resistance. These supporters of the resistance [simply] do not want it to become the one that defends the bastion of corruption from its [i.e., the resistance’s] own support base, [namely from] poor people [who live in every part of Lebanon], from the tip of the north Beqaa Valley to the southernmost tip [of Lebanon], including in the Dahia [Hizbullah’s stronghold in Beirut], some of whose areas have become hotbeds of want and poverty. These [Hizbullah supporters] do not regard these mass protests as the product of [foreign] embassies that hatched a plot against the resistance, [as you claim].
“Oh Sayyed [Nasrallah], these people want to hear an apology for the gravely mistaken [actions] committed by certain elements against the resistance and its supporters and public, and against the demonstrators. Those who dared to place the resistance in conflict with its [own] people… by means of their brutal behavior at the scenes of the protest, [behavior] that does not befit the resistance members and their upbringing and culture, must be severely punished. Honorable Sayyed [Nasrallah],… just as the resistance is a natural outcome of the occupation, the popular protest, belated though it may be, is a natural outcome of the injustice, oppression, corruption and thievery. I call upon you to return the resistance to the bosom of the people and to its natural [position] of solidarity with the pain, the hunger and the outcry of the people…”[3]
Al-Akhbar Journalists Resign Over Its Hostile Coverage Of The Protests
However, despite his criticism, Al-Akhbar editor Ibrahim Al-Amin ultimately maintained his support for Hizbullah and its positions. Apart from the two critical articles quoted above, the daily’s articles and reports continued to claim that the protests had been politicized and were controlled by foreign elements seeking to harm Lebanon and especially Hizbullah. As a result, five of the daily’s journalists resigned over what they called the daily’s slanted and hostile coverage of the protests.
The first to resign was Al-Akhbar’s culture reporter Joy Slim. In an October 29 Facebook post, she clarified the reason for her decision, lashing out at the daily for its position on the protests and even holding it responsible for the violent attacks on protesters by Hizbullah and Amal activists. She wrote: “Today I resigned from the Al-Akhbar daily after working there for five and a half years. The past few days were decisive for me. I gave up hope that the paper’s coverage of the uprising [would change]. For months, or even years, it kept explaining why [such a protest] must break out; but the minute it did, it rushed to join the counter-uprising and even advanced conspiratorial and inciting rumors that contributed to [prompting] the recent attacks on protesters in the streets by ‘residents,’ as Al-Akhbar called them on its Facebook page. The paper’s stance on the protests, and the way it covered them in the days after they broke out, was almost scandalous, in my opinion. The paper bears partial responsibility for every drop of protesters’ blood spilled by [those] ‘residents,’ supporters of the ruling parties [Hizbullah and Amal].”
Slim added: “This resignation comes at a difficult time for me, personally, but I nevertheless decided to take a leap into the unknown… rather than stay in a [work]place I felt had betrayed the people at the most crucial moment, myself among them…”[4]
Three days later, on November 3, Mohammad Zbeeb, the head of the daily’s economic section, resigned as well. He tweeted: “In order to remove any doubt, [let me clarify that] I resigned from the Al-Akhbar daily… in protest of its stance towards the uprising.”[5]
The other three reporters resigned On November 5. Sabah ‘Ayoub, who had been with the paper since its inception and had served as its deputy editor, its opinion section editor, and most recently as the head of its website team, tweeted: “I resigned from Al-Akhbar for a number of reasons, chief among them its coverage of the October 17 uprising.”[6] Viviane ‘Akiki, who worked in the paper’s economic section, tweeted: “I resigned from Al-Akhbar for professional reasons related to its coverage of the popular uprising, as well as other reasons having to do with its professional performance, which were never addressed…”[7] Muhammad Al-Jannoun tweeted: “I hereby announce that I have stopped writing in Al-Akhbar, because it does not recognize the legitimate right to [hold] the popular protests [of] the October 17 revolution. I thank the daily for the opportunity it gave me for five years, [but] it is inconceivable that freedom of the press should be influenced by politics or affiliation.”[8]
As stated, a fortnight later, two reporters from the Lebanese Al-Mayadeen channel, which is likewise affiliated with Hizbullah, resigned as well. The first to resign was senior journalist Samy Kleyb, who was among the channels’ founders and is known as a supporter of the Syrian regime, Hizbullah and its allies. He tweeted on November 22: “I resigned from Al-Mayadeen today, prompted by my positions, beliefs and conscience. I wish them ongoing progress and success.”[9] Although Kleyb did not specify the reasons for his resignation, some speculated that, like in the case of the Al-Akhbar journalists, the reason was the channel’s hostile coverage of the protests.”[10] Two days later, journalist Lina Zahredine, who had been with the channel for eight years, announced her resignation, writing: “Due to the historic moments were are experiencing, I found it necessary to resign from Al-Mayadeen. I wish the channel longevity and our peoples [the Arab peoples] a better future…”[11] Her resignation too was seen in the Lebanese press as an act of protest over the channel’s coverage of the current events in Lebanon.[12]
*H. Varulkar is director of research at MEMRI; C. Jacob is a research fellow at MEMRI.
[1] For more on Hizbullah’s hostility to the protests and the reasons behind it, see MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis Series No.1492, Lebanese Protests Place Hizbullah In A Bind – Part I: Hizbullah’s Hostility To The Protests And The Reasons Behind It, December 3, 2019.
[2] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), October 30, 2019.
[3] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), November 1, 2019.
[4] Facebook.com, joy.slim.18, October 29, 2019.
[5] Twitter.com/mzbeeb/status, November 3, 2019.
[6] Twitter.com/sabahayoub, November 5, 2019.
[7] Twitter.com/vivianeakiki, November 5, 2019.
[8] Twitter.com/mhdJannoun, November 5, 2019.
[9] Twitter.com/samykleyb, November 22, 2019.
[10] Independentarabia.com, janoubia.com, almodon.com, October 24, 2019.
[11] Facebook.com/LinaZahredine, October 24, 2019.
[12] Independentarabia.com, janoubia.com, almodon.com, October 24, 2019.
https://www.memri.org/reports/lebanese-protests-place-hizbullah-bind-%E2%80%93-part-ii-hizbullahs-position-protests-evokes

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 03-04/2019
Iraq Parties in Talks over New PM as US Urges Probe in Protest Violence
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 3 December, 2019
Iraq's rival parties were negotiating the contours of a new government on Monday, after the previous cabinet was brought down by a two-month protest movement insisting on even more deep-rooted change. After just over a year in power, premier Adel Abdel Mahdi formally resigned Sunday after a dramatic intervention by top Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. That followed a wave of violence that pushed the protest toll to over 420 dead -- the vast majority of them demonstrators. The United States on Monday called recent violence in Nassiriya, Iraq in which at least 29 people died “shocking and abhorrent,” calling on the Iraqi government to investigate and punish those responsible for the “excessive” use of force. Iraqi security forces opened fire on demonstrators who had blocked a bridge and later gathered outside a police station in the southern city, killing at least 29 people. Police and medical sources said dozens more were wounded. Iraqi forces have killed over 400 people, mostly young, unarmed protesters, since mass anti-government protests broke out on October 1. More than a dozen members of the security forces have also died in clashes.
“The use of excessive force over the weekend in Nassiriya was shocking and abhorrent,” David Schenker, US assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, told reporters. “We call on the Government of Iraq to respect the rights of the Iraqi people and urge the government to investigate and hold accountable those who attempt to brutally silence peaceful protesters,” he added.
The unrest is Iraq’s biggest challenge since ISIS seized swathes of Iraqi and Syrian territory in 2014. It pits mostly young, disaffected Shiite protesters against a Shiite-dominated government that is backed by Iran and has been accused of squandering Iraq’s oil wealth while infrastructure and living standards deteriorate. Parliament on Sunday formally tasked the president with naming a new candidate, but Iraq's competing factions typically engage in drawn-out discussions before any official decisions are made. Talks on a new premier began before Abdel Mahdi resigned, a senior political source and a government official told AFP. "The meetings are ongoing now," the political source added. Such discussions produced Abdel Mahdi as a candidate in 2018, but consensus will be harder this time around. "They understand it has to be a figure who is widely accepted by the diverse centers of power, not objected to by the marjaiyah (Shiite religious establishment), and not hated by the street," said Harith Hasan, a fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center. The candidate would also have to be acceptable to Iraq's two main allies, arch-rivals Washington and Tehran. "The Iranians invested a lot in the political equation in the last few years and won't be willing to give up easily," said Hasan, according to AFP. Tehran's pointman on Iraq, Qassem Soleimani, who heads the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' foreign operations arm, arrived in Iraq last week for talks, official sources said.
'Two sides of the same coin'
The United States said that Soleimani's presence showed that Iran was again "interfering" in Iraq, accusing Tehran of having "exploited" the neighboring country. Despite the oil wealth of OPEC's second-biggest crude producer, one in five Iraqis lives in poverty and youth unemployment stands at one quarter, the World Bank says. Demonstrators say such systemic problems require more deep-rooted solutions than Abdel Mahdi's resignation. "We demand the entire government be changed from its roots up," Mohammad al-Mashhadani, a doctor protesting in Baghdad's Tahrir Square, said on Monday. Nearby, law student Abdelmajid al-Jumaili said that meant parliament and even the president would have to go. "If they get rid of Abdel Mahdi and bring someone else from the political class, then nothing changed. They'd just be two sides of the same coin," said Jumaili. But the protesters' demand for an entirely new face has complicated the search for a new premier. Two political heavyweights said they opted out of current talks: former premier Haidar al-Abadi and cleric Moqtada Sadr, who had backed the government until protests erupted. "They're aware the bar is too high and it's too difficult for them to please the street," said Hasan. At the same time, a totally new player is unlikely to be trusted by the established political class. "The discussions now are over someone from the second or third tier of politicians," the government source told AFP. "It's not possible to have someone new. It has to be someone who understands the political machine to push things along."
Many 'firsts' for Iraq
The government and political sources said parties were considering a "transitional" cabinet to oversee electoral reform before an early parliamentary vote. "This process will take no less than six months," the official said. A new voting law has been a key demand of protesters as well as Sistani, and is now a centerpiece of the government's proposed reforms. On Monday, Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbusi held meetings with the main legislative blocs, the United Nations and parliament's legal committee to discuss a draft law, with more talks expected on Tuesday. President Barham Salih met the UN's top representative in Iraq, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, as well as the European Union's ambassador to the country. Iraq's entrenched political elite has been struggling to "think outside the box" to resolve the crisis, Hasan said.
Beyond the rising death toll from protests, rights groups have slammed the harassment, kidnapping and even killing of activists, medics and regular protesters in recent months. "Authorities are failing Iraqi citizens by allowing armed groups to abduct people, and it will be up to the government to take swift action against these abuses," said Human Rights Watch's regional director Sarah Leah Whitson.

Iran Still Selling Oil Despite US Sanctions
Asharq Al-Awsat/December 03/2019
Iran is still selling its oil despite US sanctions on Tehran’s exports, the country’s Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri was quoted on Monday as saying by state TV, adding that Washington’s “maximum pressure” on Tehran had failed. “Despite America’s pressure ... and its imposed sanctions on our oil exports, we still continue to sell our oil by using other means ... when even friendly countries have stopped purchasing our crude fearing America’s penalties,” Jahangiri said, according to Reuters. Relations between the two foes reached crisis point last year after US President Donald Trump abandoned a 2015 pact between Iran and world powers under which Tehran accepted curbs to its nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions. Speaking at an event in Kentucky on Monday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the sanctions on Tehran had been effective, resulting in a decrease in Iran’s wealth and diminished ability to trade with the rest of the world. “The good news is, in spite of what the world told President Trump - that American sanctions would not work - the world was wrong. The sanctions have been incredibly effective,” Pompeo said. Washington has reimposed sanctions aimed at halting all Iranian oil exports, saying it seeks to force Iran to negotiate to reach a wider deal. But other world powers that signed on to the 2015 nuclear deal have not reinstated their own sanctions. Tehran has rejected talks unless Washington returns to the nuclear deal and lifts all sanctions. “They have failed to bring our oil exports to zero as planned,” Jahangiri said.

Macron Says Turkey 'Sometimes Works with ISIS Proxies'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 03/2019
French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday accused Turkish forces of sometimes working with fighters linked to the Islamic State group in its operation in northern Syria. "When I look at Turkey, they now are fighting against those who fought with us. And sometimes they work with ISIS proxies," Macron said at a London news conference with U.S. President Donald Trump. Macron, who will meet Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan later in the day ahead of a NATO summit, also said he stood by comments he made last month alleging that NATO is strategically "brain dead."Macron insisted there must be no "ambiguity" toward IS, saying that Turkey's actions against the Kurdish militias that helped the allies fight the jihadist group showed the need for better coordination. "We have lost cooperation with Turkey, on security and trade and migration and European Union and France," Macron said, adding that two clarifications must be made at the summit. "How is it possible to be a member of the alliance, to work with -- to be integrated and buy things from Russia?" he asked, referring to Ankara's purchase of Russia's S-400 missile system. And secondly, he said it would have to be asked whether Turkey wants to remain a member of NATO if Erdogan makes good on a threat to delay Baltic defense measures unless allies declare the Kurdish militia terrorists.

Haniyeh, Nakhaleh in Cairo to Discuss ‘Long Truce’ with Israel
Ramallah - Kifah Zboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 03/2019
The head of Hamas’ political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, and the secretary-general of Islamic Jihad, Ziad al-Nakhaleh, arrived in Cairo on Monday in an attempt to advance a long-term truce with Israel. Cairo has allowed Haniyeh to leave the Gaza Strip months after a travel ban revealed by Hamas and denied by the Egyptian authorities. Cairo also requested the presence of Nakhaleh in this week’s talks. Hamas confirmed that Haniyeh would lead a large delegation to discuss with Egyptian officials important files besides bilateral relations. A statement by the Jihad movement said that Nakhaleh would hold crucial talks with Egyptian officials. Haniyeh also plans to head a delegation that will visit Russia, Qatar and Turkey. Over the past two years, Cairo has been assuming a mediation role in two complex files: Palestinian internal reconciliation and a truce in the Gaza Strip. Haniyeh and Nakhaleh’s visit came amid Israeli leaks about progress in the truce talks that could lead to a long-term agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu implicitly acknowledged working on such an agreement, saying there would be no long-term settlement in the Gaza Strip “as long as rocket fire continues.”The Israeli Haaretz newspaper reported that Hamas and Israel continue to discuss new arrangements, leading to a long-term truce rather than a temporary ceasefire. It pointed out that the establishment of an American field hospital near the Beit Hanoun crossing in the northern Gaza Strip under the supervision of a US institution, was one of these arrangements. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority slammed truce understandings between Hamas and Israel, saying they aimed to kill the “Palestinian state project.”In an attempt to pressure Israel and the mediators, the National Authority of the Return Marches and Lifting the Siege announced the resumption of marches on the Gaza border next Friday after a three-week suspension. At the end of its regular meeting on Monday, the National Authority called for a broad participation on Friday.

Oman FM Calls from Tehran for Regional Conference to Discuss Gulf Security
Asharq Al-Awsat/December, 03/2019
Oman's Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah stressed on Monday that the circumstances in the Gulf region necessitate dialogue and mutual understandings between all regional countries. “The situation in the region requires dialogue and understanding. Holding a general and comprehensive conference with the participation of all relevant countries can be helpful in that regard,” he said from Tehran where he met with Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif and with Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani. “Achieving sustainable security in the region needs reaching a consensus and understanding among all the neighboring countries in order to eliminate misunderstandings,” the Omani minister stressed after meeting with Shamkhani. Bin Alawi added that tension in the region “will not be in the interest of any of the Gulf countries,” and he called all parties to avoid increasing the tension in all the possible ways. For his part, Zarif said Iran “welcomes and will assist any effort and initiative which are based on goodwill to reduce the tensions in the region,” Fars news agency quoted him as saying. The Iranian FM also emphasized the need to reduce tensions in the region, especially in Yemen. He described Iran’s will to talk with all countries of the region as “serious”, and added that the "Hormuz Peace Endeavor (HOPE) was proposed in line with that goal.”Oman’s news agency said the two sides discussed the bilateral relations between the Sultanate and Iran, as well as the latest developments in the region. They also discussed political files of common concern. The visit of bin Alawi to Tehran comes amid unprecedented tension in the region, where Washington and Gulf capitals accuse Tehran of targeting ships and oil facilities and of threatening the waters near the Hormuz Strait.

Putin’s Envoy Tells Assad Russia Supports ‘Recapturing All Syrian Territories’
Damascus, Qamishli, London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 3 December, 2019
Syrian regime leader Bashar Assad and Russia’s special envoy for Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev stressed on Monday their support for the need for Damascus to regain control over the entire northeastern region with the border with Turkey. The announcement came following an agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces and Russia to deploy Syrian regime forces in the northeast of the country, to replace Turkish-backed factions. In a statement Monday, the Syrian presidency said that Assad met in Damascus with Lavrentiev and Russia’s deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin.
During the meeting, Assad agreed to “continue the fight against terrorism” so that Idlib would not become “a permanent haven for terrorists.” The two sides discussed the situation in Syria, particularly in Idlib, in addition to the repeated attacks launched by terrorist organizations against nearby residential areas. They underline the joint Syrian-Russian stances to fight terrorism and prevent terrorist groups from continuing to use Idlib residents as human shields and turn the area into a permanent terrorist haven. Both Assad and Lavrentiev also confirmed the readiness of Syria to control the entire territories and villages and the return of state institutions to restore stability and security for Idlib residents. The two men discussed the political process in Syria and preparations for the next round of the Astana talks. “Both countries should pursue dialogue and coordination to confront the attempts of some states to interfere in Syria’s political operation and to prevent it from achieving its main goals: Realize the people’s interest in preserving the stability of Syria and the unity and independence of its territories,” the statement said.

Turkey Defends Agreements with Libya’s GNA
Ankara, Brussels - Saeed Abdul Razek and Abdullah Mustafa//Asharq Al-Awsat/December 03/2019
Turkey defended on Monday the signing of security deals with Libya’s Government of National Accord, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy saying they “will not allowing the status quo policy.”Ankara and the GNA signed last week a memorandum of understanding on military and security cooperation and another on the restriction of maritime jurisdiction, drawing criticism from the Libyan National Army, Cyprus, Greece, Egypt and Europe. The memorandum between Turkey and Libya on maritime jurisdiction complies with international law, Aksoy said, adding that part of the western border of the Turkish maritime sovereignty in the eastern Mediterranean was determined in the agreement. Everyone knows that Turkey has the longest shore in the eastern Mediterranean and that the islands facing the line separating the two lands are maritime sovereignty outside its regional waters, Aksoy continued. When calculating the maritime sovereignty border, the length and direction of shores are taken into consideration. In Brussels Monday, European Commission spokesman Peter Stano said: "The EU has repeatedly stressed to Turkey that it has to respect international law and also good neighborly relations with all countries around it.”
It has to avoid any kind of threats or actions that would damage good neighborly relations and the peaceful settlement of disputes, he added. He added that the EU had voiced its reservations over Ankara’s actions by imposing sanctions on July 15.

Israeli PM Cancels Trip to London
Tel Aviv- Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 3 December, 2019
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not fly to London on Tuesday to participate in the NATO summit and meet with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on the sidelines. Instead, Netanyahu spoke with US President Donald Trump over the phone and the two discussed Iran and other issues.
In a brief email statement, the White House said the leaders discussed the threat from Iran, as well as other critical bilateral and regional issues. A source in Tel Aviv said that Netanyahu was hoping that Trump would offer to meet him in London on the sidelines of the conference, but that didn't happen.
Sources close to Netanyahu said he canceled the visit because of technical difficulties, as the British could not arrange the meetings he had requested. However, other diplomatic sources said that the PM had to cancel the visit because none of the officials involved in the NATO meetings whom he had asked to meet were keen to meet him. The sources linked this decision to his recent statements in which he attacked EU countries and accused them of compromising with Iran. Netanyahu had asked to meet with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and other leaders. After announcing that he would visit London to meet them, he issued an official statement on Sunday, strongly attacking the Europeans and accusing them of appeasing Iran. “While the Iranian regime is killing its own people, European countries rush to support that very murderous regime,” Netanyahu said. The PM said that as Iran bombs Saudi oil facilities and seeks to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons, European countries are offering more concessions. “These European countries should be ashamed of themselves.”Netanyahu concluded that this is the time to tighten pressure on Iran and not ease it.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 03-04/2019
With Brutal Crackdown, Iran Is Convulsed by Worst Unrest in 40 Years
Farnaz Fassihi and Rick Gladstone/The New York Times/December 03/2019
What started as a protest over a surprise increase in gasoline prices turned into widespread demonstrations met with a systematic repression that left at least 180 people dead.
Iran is experiencing its deadliest political unrest since the Islamic Revolution 40 years ago, with at least 180 people killed — and possibly hundreds more — as angry protests have been smothered in a government crackdown of unbridled force.
It began two weeks ago with an abrupt increase of at least 50 percent in gasoline prices. Within 72 hours, outraged demonstrators in cities large and small were calling for an end to the Islamic Republic’s government and the downfall of its leaders.
In many places, security forces responded by opening fire on unarmed protesters, largely unemployed or low-income young men between the ages of 19 and 26, according to witness accounts and videos. In the southwest city of Mahshahr alone, witnesses and medical personnel said, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps members surrounded, shot and killed 40 to 100 demonstrators — mostly unarmed young men — in a marsh where they had sought refuge.
“The recent use of lethal force against people throughout the country is unprecedented, even for the Islamic Republic and its record of violence,” said Omid Memarian, the deputy director at the Center for Human Rights in Iran, a New York-based group.
Altogether, from 180 to 450 people, and possibly more, were killed in four days of intense violence after the gasoline price increase was announced on Nov. 15, with at least 2,000 wounded and 7,000 detained, according to international rights organizations, opposition groups and local journalists.
The last enormous wave of protests in Iran — in 2009 after a contested election, which was also met with a deadly crackdown — left 72 people dead over a much longer period of about 10 months.
Only now, nearly two weeks after the protests were crushed — and largely obscured by an internet blackout in the country that was lifted recently — have details corroborating the scope of killings and destruction started to dribble out.
The latest outbursts not only revealed staggering levels of frustration with Iran’s leaders, but also underscored the serious economic and political challenges facing them, from the Trump administration’s onerous sanctions on the country to the growing resentment toward Iran by neighbors in an increasingly unstable Middle East.
The gas price increase, which was announced as most Iranians had gone to bed, came as Iran is struggling to fill a yawning budget gap. The Trump administration sanctions, most notably their tight restrictions on exports of Iran’s oil, are a big reason for the shortfall. The sanctions are meant to pressure Iran into renegotiating the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and major world powers, which President Trump abandoned, calling it too weak.
Most of the nationwide unrest seemed concentrated in neighborhoods and cities populated by low-income and working-class families, suggesting this was an uprising born in the historically loyal power base of Iran’s post-revolutionary hierarchy.
Many Iranians, stupefied and embittered, have directed their hostility directly at the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who called the crackdown a justified response to a plot by Iran’s enemies at home and abroad.
The killings prompted a provocative warning from Mir Hussein Moussavi, an opposition leader and former presidential candidate whose 2009 election loss set off peaceful demonstrations that Ayatollah Khamenei also suppressed by force.
“The killers of the year 1978 were the representatives of a nonreligious regime and the agents and shooters of November 2019 are the representatives of a religious government,” he said. “Then the commander in chief was the shah and today, here, the supreme leader with absolute authority.”
The authorities have declined to specify casualties and arrests and have denounced unofficial figures on the national death toll as speculative. But the nation’s interior minister, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, has cited widespread unrest around the country.
On state media, he said that protests had erupted in 29 out of 31 provinces and 50 military bases had been attacked, which if true suggested a level of coordination absent in the earlier protests. Iran’s official media have reported that several members of the security forces were killed and injured during the clashes.
The property damage also included 731 banks, 140 public spaces, nine religious centers, 70 gasoline stations, 307 vehicles, 183 police cars, 1,076 motorcycles and 34 ambulances, the interior minister said.
The worst violence documented so far happened in the city of Mahshahr and its suburbs, with a population of 120,000 people in Iran’s southwest Khuzestan Province — a region with an ethnic Arab majority that has a long history of unrest and opposition to the central government. Mahshahr is adjacent to the nation’s largest industrial petrochemical complex and serves as a gateway to Bandar Imam, a major port.
The New York Times interviewed six residents of the city, including a protest leader who had witnessed the violence; a reporter based in the city who works for Iranian media, and had investigated the violence but was banned from reporting it; and a nurse at the hospital where casualties were treated.
They each provided similar accounts of how the Revolutionary Guards deployed a large force to Mahshahr on Monday, Nov. 18, to crush the protests. All spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution by the Guards.
For three days, according to these residents, protesters had successfully gained control of most of Mahshahr and its suburbs, blocking the main road to the city and the adjacent industrial petrochemical complex. Iran’s interior minister confirmed that the protesters had gotten control over Mahshahr and its roads in a televised interview last week, but the Iranian government did not respond to specific questions in recent days about the mass killings in the city.
Local security forces and riot police officers had attempted to disperse the crowd and open the roads, but failed, residents said. Several clashes between protesters and security forces erupted between Saturday evening and Monday morning before the Guards were dispatched there.
When the Guards arrived near the entrance to a suburb, Shahrak Chamran, populated by low-income members of Iran’s ethnic Arab minority, they immediately shot without warning at dozens of men blocking the intersection, killing several on the spot, according to the residents interviewed by phone.
The residents said the other protesters scrambled to a nearby marsh, and that one of them, apparently armed with an AK-47, fired back. The Guards immediately encircled the men and responded with machine gun fire, killing as many as 100 people, the residents said.
The Guards piled the dead onto the back of a truck and departed, the residents said, and relatives of the wounded then transported them to Memko Hospital.
One of the residents, a 24-year-old unemployed college graduate in chemistry who had helped organize the protests blocking the roads, said he had been less than a mile away from the mass shooting and that his best friend, also 24, and a 32-year-old cousin were among the dead.
He said they both had been shot in the chest and their bodies were returned to the families five days later, only after they had signed paperwork promising not to hold funerals or memorial services and not to give interviews to media.
The young protest organizer said he, too, was shot in the ribs on Nov. 19, the day after the mass shooting, when the Guards stormed with tanks into his neighborhood, Shahrak Taleghani, among the poorest suburbs of Mahshahr.
He said a gun battle erupted for hours between the Guards and ethnic Arab residents, who traditionally keep guns for hunting at home. Iranian state media and witnesses reported that a senior Guards commander had been killed in a Mahshahr clash. Video on Twitter suggests tanks had been deployed there.
A 32-year-old nurse in Mahshahr reached by the phone said she had tended to the wounded at the hospital and that most had sustained gunshot wounds to the head and chest.
She described chaotic scenes at the hospital, with families rushing to bring in the casualties, including a 21-year-old who was to be married but could not be saved. “‘Give me back my son!,’” the nurse quoted his sobbing mother as saying. “‘It’s his wedding in two weeks!’”
The nurse said security forces stationed at the hospital arrested some of the wounded protesters after their conditions had stabilized. She said some relatives, fearing arrest themselves, dropped wounded loved ones at the hospital and fled, covering their faces.
On Nov. 25, a week after it happened, the city’s representative in Parliament, Mohamad Golmordai, vented outrage in a blunt moment of searing antigovernment criticism that was broadcast on Iranian state television and captured in photos and videos uploaded to the internet.
“What have you done that the undignified Shah did not do?” Mr. Golmordai screamed from the Parliament floor, as a scuffle broke out between him and other lawmakers, including one who grabbed him by the throat.
The local reporter in Mahshahr said the total number of people killed in three days of unrest in the area had reached 130, including those killed in the marsh.
In other cities such as Shiraz and Shahriar, dozens were reported killed in the unrest by security forces who fired on unarmed protesters, according to rights groups and videos posted by witnesses.
“This regime has pushed people toward violence,” said Yousef Alsarkhi, 29, a political activist from Khuzestan who migrated to the Netherlands four years ago. “The more they repress, the more aggressive and angry people get.”
Political analysts said the protests appeared to have delivered a severe blow to President Hassan Rouhani, a relative moderate in Iran’s political spectrum, all but guaranteeing that hard-liners would win upcoming parliamentary elections and the presidency in two years.

Objectivity and Partnership
Samir Atallah/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 03/2019
At an event I was invited to by the Fouad Chehab Foundation last summer, I gave a talk on Russian-Lebanese relations, while the Russian ambassador, Alexander Zasypkin, gave a talk on the same topic. During my talk, I chose to address the positive Soviet positions on Arab issues, particularly concerning Palestine. I also critiqued the Arab reaction to those positions, particularly the expulsion of Soviet experts from Egypt under Anwar Sadat.
To some of the Lebanese ambassadors in attendance, I sounded “pro-Russian”, while others found bold objectivity in what I said. Despite the long period that had elapsed since that lecture, I received a letter from Annahar newspaper from someone who had been accusing me, weekly, of being an enemy of Moscow and communism.
Consequently, I decided to persist with this despite the worldwide fall of communism, which is still alive as far as the author of that letter and his comrades in Lebanon are concerned. The author wants to ask me whether what I said was due to some awakening in my conscience, and what had changed?
It most certainly is neither an awakening of my conscience nor any remorse. The conscientious is he who had criticized communism and its stance on human freedoms and how it treated its people but felt grateful for Moscow’s position on Arab issues. He who spent his lifetime criticizing American policy in the Middle, Near and the Far East, but stops at Lincoln, Roosevelt and General George Marshall. He who had supported Abdel Nasser when it came to the Suez Canal, the Aswan High Dam and the people’s dignity, but criticized him when it came to persecution and the negligence that led to the Six-Day War. It is he who criticized Anwar Sadat.
Man is given two eyes so that he can make distinctions. This is even more pertinent for a journalist who is not only responsible to himself, but other people as well. A writer in a newspaper that is published for the public to see is not a member of a party who only sees what is dictated to him and who sees things as Lenin, the man responsible for what happened to communism, did a century ago. I am sorry to tell you that, in all honesty, communism’s worst enemies are the dogmatists whose minds are only large enough to make such accusations. I wish you had followed my position on Salvador Allende and Augusto Pinochet in Chile. The first is a humane leftist, and the other is his murderer, whose ruthlessness knew no limits.
Journalism is not a party membership card, nor is it silly accusations of this sort.
This reminds me of other similar incidents, such as when the attaché in the Greek embassy during the dictatorship days would barge into the Annahar building, saying that he had documents proving that I was a communist agent for Moscow because of what I had written about his short-lived leaders.
Dear Sir: To lose one’s conscience is much worse than to lose one’s freedom. My freedom allows me to criticize decades of Communist Russia while lecturing side by side with its ambassador about the importance of the relations between our countries. You, however, are still chained to your position at the party, unable to grasp that it has perished.
The harshness of the latest crackdown in Iran betrays the dire existential uncertainties of a decaying regime. The deliberate assassination of young demonstrators ( 180-450 in a week time and hundreds of wounded people ), the cruelty of the executions in the marshes and the brutal clamp down on public expression, are quite suggestive of the panicky mood of the Iranian regime whose legitimacy erodes by the day, and dysfunctional governance displays its inability to deal with basic tasks and tackle the deleterious consequences of failed economic policies, massive corruption and bureaucratic fecklessness, let alone address the environmental and urban disasters and its attending cohort of social crises ( desertification, catastrophic floods, rural migration and massive urban squalor / 13, 000, 000 people living in Teheran growing shantytowns, critical environmental problems and water shortages, exponential delinquency rates/ 4,000,000 drug addicts left untreated, rampant poverty, unattended natural catastrophes/ 3,000,000 people left with no decent shelters after the repeated earthquakes.... ). In addition, the costs of exponential militarization ( conventional and nuclear ), imperial power projections throughout the Greater Middle East, and the inability to extract itself from a protracted state of international isolation and engage diplomatically its compounded arc of conflicts, demonstrate the systemic nature of these crises and the inherent inability of the Iranian regime to address them.
The sustained tempo of crises and its cyclical modus account for their endogenous nature, and the compulsive recourse to violence to contain them and delay the inevitability of an implosion. Far from being incidental, the paranoia and state of denial which characterize the overall demeanor of the Iranian regime owe to its ideological panopticon, the vested interests of a redundant and corrupt revolutionary nomenklatura, and the inaptitude to come to terms with the profound societal changes. The recurrent pattern of international policy failures, the incapacity to engage the world community and put an end to the politics of self seclusion, reflect the fears of a totalitarian regime which equates international normalization with internal liberalization.The death of the revolutionary myth intertwined with the abysmal ineptitude of a revolutionary governance are speeding up the decaying process, and violence is its most adequate metonymic expression. The endemic crises and their cyclical violent outbursts have nothing to do with the American embargo and are unlikely to stop, as a long as this regime does not reckon with its systemic failures, and the disastrous outcomes of its murderous dystopia. Scampering towards militarization, subversive power politics and ideological frenzy are proving fallacious by the day, Iran is left with the dire prospects of implosion and a more hazardous strategic environment. The Islamic revolution is a deadweight which weighs heavily upon Iran’s future and the need for a substantive change is more urgent than ever, the sooner the better.

How Palestinian Leaders Sabotage Palestinians' Interests
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/December 03/2019
The new field hospital in the Gaza Strip is currently being built with the help of Friendship, a US NGO, as well as partial funding from Qatar. The hospital, which is being constructed near the Gaza-Israel border, will provide medical services to thousands of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Jamal Nasr, a representative of the Palestinian Democratic Union (FIDA) party went as far as claiming that the new hospital will serve as a center for spying on the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. "This is a suspicious project," Nasr said. "It can't have any humanitarian purposes. It's actually a base for intelligence gathering."
As with the hospital, the PA leadership has also come out against the proposed artificial island port, which aims to improve the situation in the Gaza Strip. This is the same PA that has been repeatedly condemning Israel for imposing a "blockade" on the Gaza Strip. Instead of welcoming the Israeli initiative, PA officials are denouncing it as another "conspiracy" against the Palestinians.
Abbas and his senior officials are seeking to prolong the suffering of their people in the Gaza Strip so they can continue to blame Israel alone for the crisis there. By calling the hospital a "spying center," they are also endangering the lives of the volunteers and medical staff, whose sole "crime" is providing medical treatment to Palestinians.
The next time anyone talks about the harsh conditions in the Gaza Strip, the world needs to realize that those who are trying to block aid to their people are the Palestinian leaders.
Leaders of the Palestinian Authority are opposed to the construction of a new hospital in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip. Why? Because the PA hates its rivals in Hamas to the point that it is prepared to punish the Palestinians in Gaza. Pictured: The Erez border crossing in Israel, at the border with the Gaza Strip, near which Israel, Hamas, the United Nations, Qatar and Egypt have agreed to establish the new hospital to treat Gazan patients.
As Israel continues to study ways of improving the living conditions of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, the leaders of the Palestinian Authority (PA) continue to sabotage the interests of their own people.
These leaders are opposed to the construction of a new hospital in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip. They are also opposed to an Israeli initiative to construct an artificial port off the coast of the Gaza Strip. The PA, in other words, is opposed to any move aimed at alleviating the suffering of its people.
Why? Because the PA hates its rivals in Hamas to the point that it is prepared to punish the Palestinians by imposing economic sanctions on the Gaza Strip. These include cutting off payments to thousands of public employees and needy families.
Another reason: the PA is strongly opposed to any plan in which Israel and the US are involved to help the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip. As far as the PA is concerned, anything good coming from Israel or the US is actually bad, simply part of a larger "conspiracy" against the Palestinians.
The new field hospital in the Gaza Strip is currently being built with the help of Friendship, a US NGO, as well as partial funding from Qatar. The hospital, which is being constructed near the Gaza-Israel border, will provide medical services to thousands of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The construction of the hospital is believed to be in the result of ceasefire understandings reached between Israel and Hamas earlier this year under the auspices of Egypt and the United Nations.
The PA, however, has come out against the construction of the new hospital. Some of its leaders claim that it is part of an Israeli-US "conspiracy" to have the Palestinians pass President Donald J. Trump's yet-to-be-announced plan for peace in the Middle East, also known as the Deal of the Century. Needless to say, the PA is not offering any alternative to the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, who are desperate for decent medical care.
Fatah, the ruling Palestinian faction in West Bank and headed by PA President Mahmoud Abbas, claimed in a statement that the hospital was actually a US "military base."
Fatah said that Hamas was "committing a crime against the Palestinian cause and people" by agreeing to the hospital's construction. Fatah further claimed that the hospital was part of Trump's Deal of the Century, which, they allege, "aims to eliminate the Palestinian cause." According to Abbas's faction, Hamas is "prepared to do anything to win recognition from Israel and the US."
The PA Minister of Health, Mai Alkaila, described the hospital as a "suspicious project linked to a [US] political program, specifically the Deal of the Century, which is rejected by all Palestinians." She added: "If US politicians want to help our people in the Gaza Strip, they need to stop the war on the Gaza Strip and support the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)." UNRWA, of course, has been cited for helping Hamas to fire rockets at Israel.
Mahmoud al-Habbash, a senior advisor to Abbas, also weighed in on the hospital project in the Gaza Strip. He said that the "US hospital in the northern Gaza Strip cannot be innocent and is not motivated by humanitarian concerns." The Palestinians, he added, "cannot believe that the US, which supplies weapons to Israel and has recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital, suddenly wants to treat Palestinian patients in the Gaza Strip." Habbash, too, alleged that the hospital will serve as an Israeli-American base.
Senior PLO official Ahmed Majdalani claimed that the hospital is part of an Israeli-American policy to "establish a separate Palestinian political entity in the Gaza Strip after detaching it from the West Bank." Hamas, he said, is not entitled to negotiate or sign agreements with any foreign country. "The Palestinian Authority and the PLO are the only parties authorized to represent the Palestinians," Majdalani said.
Jamal Nasr, a representative of the Palestinian Democratic Union (FIDA) party went as far as claiming that the new hospital will serve as a center for spying on the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. "This is a suspicious project," Nasr said. "It can't have any humanitarian purposes. It's actually a base for intelligence gathering."
Last week, Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett reportedly instructed the Israel Defense Forces to conduct a security feasibility study for the construction of an artificial island project off the coast of the Gaza Strip. According to Israel's Channel 12 News, Bennett and IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi met this week and agreed to promote the island project, and to examine establishing an internationally funded airport in the Gaza Strip.
As with the hospital, the PA leadership has also come out against the proposed artificial island port, which aims to improve the situation in the Gaza Strip. This is the same PA that has been repeatedly condemning Israel for imposing a "blockade" on the Gaza Strip.
Instead of welcoming the Israeli initiative, PA officials are denouncing it as another "conspiracy" against the Palestinians. Hussein al-Sheikh, head of the PA General Authority for Civilian Affairs, commented:
"The recent statements of the Israeli ministers about the port of the Gaza Strip is a continuation of the separation project that leads to the establishment of the State of Gaza to kill the project of the Palestinian state."
Last year, Palestinians demonstrated in the West Bank to protest PA sanctions imposed on the Gaza Strip. The protesters, who accused the PA leadership of aggravating the humanitarian and economic crisis in the Gaza Strip, were violently dispersed by the PA security forces.
The PA sanctions include cutting salaries to thousands of employees and impoverished families, refusing to pay for electricity supplied by Israel to the Gaza Strip and denying Palestinian patients medical treatment in Israeli and Egyptian hospitals.
The sanctions, first announced by Abbas in 2017, are apparently part of a PA plan to undermine Hamas's rule over the Gaza Strip. Abbas and the PA leaders were hoping that the sanctions would spur the Palestinians to revolt against Hamas. That wish, however, seems to have failed to materialize.
The strong opposition to the field hospital and the proposed artificial island port show that the PA is also determined to prevent other parties from helping the two million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Moreover, it demonstrates that Abbas and his senior officials are seeking to prolong the suffering of their people in the Gaza Strip so they can continue to blame Israel alone for the crisis there. By calling the hospital a "spying center," they are also endangering the lives of the volunteers and medical staff, whose sole "crime" is providing medical treatment to Palestinians. Not for the first time -- and likely not for the last time -- PA leaders would rather lie about Israel and the US than give them an ounce of the credit they deserve for their continual attempts to help the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The next time anyone talks about the harsh conditions in the Gaza Strip, the world needs to realize that those who are trying to block aid to their people are the Palestinian leaders.
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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France to Gulf countries: Macronian Multilateralism or Anglo-American alliance
Omar Al-Ubaydli/Al Arabia/December 03/2019
France was unusually assertive when describing its new Middle East policy at the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain last week. French Minister of Defense Florence Parly said France would protect the oppressed militarily if necessary, and affirmed that engaging all actors, including Iran, was central to realizing its vision of peace. This forthright stance opens new opportunities for Gulf countries, but it may also require some tough choices.
Parly’s speech built upon the new doctrine described in some detail by President Emmanuel Macron during an August 2019 speech, following the G7 meeting in France. With the UK’s international stature weakened by Brexit, and the US’s increasingly isolationist policy, the French have sensed an opportunity to eclipse the traditional Anglo-American axis in the international arena.
Two distinct tenets of Macron’s vision are multilateralism in all domains, and a desire to engage all parties, including China, Iran and Russia, under the assumption that these countries will embrace multilateralism with the same level of enthusiasm if it is presented in the appropriate manner.
Part of this is due to Macron’s pro-environmental stance: he has correctly surmised that global warming requires all countries to work together. But it is also partially self-serving, as he wants to put France in a position to benefit economically from the new world order. His pro-globalization party is threatened by the domestic inequality that the capitalist system seems to be breeding, reflected in the chronic protests of the “yellow vests.” Macron needs to reengineer the global system to improve living standards for the French masses, and to give his party ideological legitimacy. Transforming France into a balancing actor in the world’s major conflicts will open new economic doors to the Republic.
In the past, France would not have been able to be at the center of a new multilateral system, as many countries would first look to the UK or US for guidance. But since the 9/11 attacks, a series of American presidents—driven in large measure by public opinion—have decided that unilateralism is the preferred course of action, and the current leader, Donald Trump, has accelerated the US’ rejection of the UN, NATO, and other international organizations. In dealing with its adversaries China, Russia and Iran, the US seems content to employ stern unilateral measures, seeking acquiescence from its allies on a bilateral basis.
The UK’s position on many of these issues is much closer to that of the French, as they themselves have been the balancing power in Europe historically, and in the EU in modern times. But Brexit has forced the UK to either look inward, or to follow the American lead, creating an international vacuum that Macron wants the French to fill. For the Gulf countries, these developments bring economic opportunities. If they believe that Macronian multilateralism will succeed, then they should continue to deepen economic relations with China and Russia, as the two nuclear powers will see their global influence continue to grow as the US’s continues to recede. And as France’s influence within the EU grows, so will its ability to determine whether the GCC can finally secure a free trade agreement with the EU. The previous round of negotiations was suspended about 10 years ago, but the potential benefits remain huge. The EU single market is almost $20 trillion in size, over 10 times that of the GCC, and access to large markets is a critical enabling factor in the Gulf countries’ economic visions.
However, it is likely that France will exact a political price for this economic boon: all of the GCC countries distancing themselves from the US’ maximum pressure policy against Iran.
Moreover, even on the economic front, France will likely demand higher levels of commitment to combat climate change from the GCC countries. The Gulf countries continue to be significantly above the world averages in terms of energy consumption and greenhouse gases, and while that can be partially justified by the desert climate, it is fair to say that the Gulf countries are yet to deploy all measures at their disposal in the fight against climate change.
In contrast, should the Gulf countries doubt the efficacy of Macron’s version of multilateralism, or regard the price as being too high to pay, then they will likely continue to work closely with their American and British allies, while trying to navigate the massive political uncertainty that both countries are facing at the moment, and for the foreseeable future; while also pursuing the conventional form of multilateralism that the Gulf countries have favored historically.
Whatever choice the Gulf countries take, there can be little doubt that developing their own economies, and adhering to the fundamental principles of their economic visions, is the surest route to safety.
*Omar Al-Ubaydli (@omareconomics) is a researcher at Derasat, Bahrain.

Venture capital investments: The risks and advantages
Dimah Talal Alsharif/Arab News/December 03, 2019
Promising companies and institutions are experiencing an unprecedented renaissance. But what are the advantages and risks of venture capital investments, and what exactly are they?
Venture capitalists are private equity investors who provide financing to emerging and promising enterprises with high growth potential. In return, they get a stake in the companies based on the risk associated with the investment and expected returns.
Investors can often be given effective management roles in the companies and the size of the investment can vary greatly depending on the recipient’s financial requirements. Turning to venture capital can help with getting new technology, the latest marketing concepts, and assistance in product launches.
Funding usually comes from an individual or company that actively seeks out entrepreneurial ventures in which to invest. Entrepreneurs will often look for administrative and technical assistance from venture capital investors in addition to providing them with financing.
One of the main reasons for this kind of investment is the desire of stakeholders to limit the competition of small investors to them, although the risk is greater. However, it helps to introduce them to the factors that mitigate the risk of their investments over time.
Some owners of small or subsidized enterprises complain about the interference of the owners of capital in certain managerial roles. To avoid this, when contracting, the parties must ensure that there is a specific and clear understanding of the division of roles, how the establishment will be directed, and the mechanism of intervention.
This may also attract startup companies to develop their management and mechanisms and increase their access to capital markets.
There are several terms linked to the concept of venture investment, such as business incubators, which provide support to startups through equipment and research services. In addition, there are accelerators, which provide startups with financial support for a short period of time in order to speed up growth and address any fundamental problems such as regulatory or operational obstacles faced by the parties, especially those related to the exchange of shares and the ownership of the company.
After the business acceleration period ends, these supportive accelerators offer the idea to investors and venture capital funds to invest in it after making sure that the company is ready for rapid growth.
Such capital investments play a huge role in supporting the economy and development of the state, as venture capital backs the growth of small and emerging enterprises.
Small companies not only contribute to economic growth but help to improve the standard of living of individuals through the creation of jobs and the development of solutions that boost the quality
of life. Perhaps the most important obstacles faced by parties with this kind of investment are the legal risks, which also relate to ownership ratios and the distribution of profits and sharing. The legal fortification of contracts is often overlooked because of the temptations associated with financing and obtaining immediate financial support and expert management guidance.
With the support of governments as well as companies in providing venture investment dealings, it is important to be aware that having the right legal contracting culture is key to successful partnerships and guaranteed benefits.
Through a properly prepared contract, all the obstacles associated with this kind of investment, that stimulates the growth of society and its solidarity in all forms, can be avoided.
• Dimah Talal Alsharif is a Saudi legal consultant, head of the health law department at the law firm of Majed Garoub and a member of the International Association of Lawyers. Twitter: @dimah_alsharif

OPEC+ likely to continue regardless of Russian oil executives’ statements
Faisal Faeq/Arab News/December 03, 2019
Saudi Arabia and Russia appear to be heading for the 4th consecutive year of OPEC+ collaboration when producers gather this week.
A continuation of the existing production-cutting strategy to ensure market balance and global economy stability is widely anticipated — despite suggestions of a change in Russia’s position.
It is worth noting that statements from Russian oil company executives are not an official representation of Russian output policy.
We recall that in October, the Rosneft CEO said that the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil production facilities in Abqaiq had impacted the Kingdom’s status as a reliable supplier.
He said that the attacks, which temporarily shut about half of the Kingdom’s crude oil output, gave “grounds to rethink Saudi Arabia’s role as an undoubtedly reliable oil supplier.”
On the contrary, the September attacks on the largest oil facility on the planet proved that Saudi Arabia is the world’s most reliable supplier as oil exports were suspended for only 36 hours to ensure the safety of customers’ oil tankers.
Saudi Aramco effectively handled dealing with the aftermath of the attacks and production was back online to the previous levels within only two weeks.
October crude oil production data supports this analysis.
OPEC’s 177th meeting comes after the group’s October output recovered to 29.65 million bpd with Saudi Arabia still over-complying with its share of OPEC+ output cuts by more than 400,000 bpd.
Under the OPEC+ output cuts agreement, Russia pledged to cut its daily output by about 230,000 bpd from a baseline of 11.4 million bpd according to Russian energy Minister Alexander Novak.
He has emphasized that the country aims to stick to its OPEC+ commitment.
Russian October crude oil output was about 11.2 million bpd, which is roughly the equivalent of cutting about 230,000 bpd from its baseline of 11.4 million bpd.
Lower October crude oil output from non-OPEC producers who are in the OPEC+ agreement (Russia, Mexico and Kazakhstan) drove compliance from all of the 10 non-OPEC participants in the 24-nation OPEC+ group to higher compliance.
• Faisal Faeq is an energy and oil marketing adviser. He was formerly with OPEC and Saudi Aramco. Twitter:@faisalfaeq.

Iraq on difficult but not impossible journey to reform
Osama Al-Sharif /Arab News/December 03/2019
The line between total chaos and the semblance of a political process has been blurred following Sunday’s acceptance by the Iraqi Parliament of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi’s resignation. This is new territory for post-2003 Iraq: The first time that a sitting premier has been ousted as a result of public pressure and the loss of the confidence of the supreme religious authority, Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani.
Abdul Mahdi’s departure, more than a year after he was chosen as a compromise candidate by the two largest blocs in Parliament — Sairoon, led by cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, and Fatah, which is associated with the paramilitary Popular Mobilization Units headed by Hadi Al-Amiri — is seen as a triumph for the popular uprising. More importantly, his ouster is viewed as a defeat for Iran and its Iraqi proxies.
He now faces possible criminal charges, along with his interior and defense ministers, for the killing of more than 400 and the injuring of more than 19,000 protesters since the outbreak of the uprising early in October. But, while protesters celebrated his resignation, they continued to demand the departure of lawmakers too. Their most important demand is the adoption of a new non-sectarian election law and a government headed by someone who has no ties to either the US or Iran.
It is unlikely they will get what they want — at least not now. Abdul Mahdi’s resignation has triggered a heated constitutional debate, which will require a ruling by the Supreme Court. Apparently, the constitution does not address the case of a premier resigning of his own accord. President Barham Salih will either head the government himself or designate a new candidate from the largest parliamentary bloc within 15 days. Sairoon has already said that it will not name a candidate of its own. One lawmaker described the current legal situation as “a constitutional black hole.”
The current impasse will encourage foreign powers to engage in behind-the-scenes horse-trading to come up with a candidate that both Tehran and Washington will support. But the old rules of the game have changed. Iraqis are showing a rare sense of unity in rejecting foreign meddling — especially in Shiite-majority southern provinces. In Najaf, the seat of the religious authority, Iraqis marched denouncing the interference of both the US and Iran.
Abdul Mahdi’s resignation has triggered a heated constitutional debate, which will require a ruling by the Supreme Court
Salih will have a tough time naming a suitable candidate — one that will be accepted by the public regardless of the position of Washington and Tehran. Failing to do so will push Iraq further toward political uncertainty. Iran stands to lose the most out of the recent developments. Not only has it lost its influence in Shiite provinces — its Najaf consulate was torched again over the weekend — but its proxies have failed to stamp out the rebellion even as they used extreme force. Now the notorious Gen. Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran’s Al-Quds Brigade, is back in Iraq trying to manage the crisis. The use of force has failed to quell the uprising and he must now take a different path if he is to maintain Iran’s sway.
A more pressing matter for the regime is to deal with officials involved in the deliberate killing of demonstrators. Al-Sadr has called for the setting up of a revolutionary court to try senior officials including Abdul Mahdi. Bringing those who ordered the use of lethal force against demonstrators to justice will become a major headline in the coming days and weeks.
In addition, Iraqis want to see those who pilfered state resources for their own wealth brought before the courts. This means most of the ruling political class and is a challenge that no politician will be able to confront unless he has full popular backing.
The leaderless uprising has a chance to narrow down its immediate demands, giving the president the opportunity to name a figure that will be accepted by the majority of Iraqis. In the meantime, Parliament must move to approve a new election law that will steer Iraq away from the quota-based system.
Iraq’s path toward recovery will prove difficult but not impossible. Stamping out corruption and ending foreign meddling are two tough tasks that will be painful and divisive. But the real challenge will be finding a new political formula to govern the country as a replacement for the sectarian-based system. One force that will resist change is Iran, which considers Iraq a strategic asset in its confrontation with the US and its regional allies. The sad reality is that Tehran may opt to create chaos in Iraq rather than give up its influence. This is something that Iraqis must avoid at any cost.
• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. Twitter: @plato010

International players finally acting on Red Sea security
Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/December 03/2019
Several important events have been held in 2019 to discuss Red Sea security. With tensions rising in the Gulf and threats to international shipping growing in the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, it became apparent that there are serious security gaps in the Red Sea. This emerging interest in the Red Sea is long past due, replacing a sense of complacency on the part of regional and global players.
About 300 million people live on the Red Sea’s shores and in its immediate region, sharing a meager $1.5 trillion of gross domestic product. Saudi Arabia and Israel account for 73 percent of that total. The rest, with a population of 260 million, share the remainder, making it one of the poorest regions in the world, with an average per capita income of $1,530. With such low levels of development, security threats are magnified.
Regional conflicts, political instability, poverty and a governance deficit in some of the countries overlooking the Red Sea have left many spaces ungoverned, providing opportunities for terrorists, pirates, organized crime and rogue states to take advantage of those gaps and threaten the security of the Red Sea. Economic development has also been affected by those challenges.
The two shores of the Red Sea have been trading for millennia, but trade between them has shrunk. Investment flows are also limited. Luckily, however, future potential is great, but that potential is difficult to realize without addressing the security threats.
The Red Sea stretches between two important narrow passageways, the Bab Al-Mandab Strait and the Suez Canal, where about 10 percent of world trade and 4 million barrels of oil pass every day, but they also represent possible chokepoints should they be blocked.
Looked at it from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) perspective, there is great urgency to deal with the alarming security threats, some of which are old, while some are new and growing.
Old conflicts between states, such as that between Ethiopia and Eritrea and between the latter and Djibouti, kept that region tense for decades. The breakthrough achieved by Saudi Arabia’s mediation in 2018 needs to be followed expeditiously by concrete steps by the three countries to translate that historical reconciliation into tangible economic benefits.
There is now a brewing conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt about the Nile waters, which needs to be addressed. Instability and the breakdown of state authority in Yemen, Somalia and South Sudan are other threats contributing to the security deterioration in the region.
Terrorism and crime thrive on the availability of ungoverned spaces in that region, in addition to corrupt officials who condone their activities. Terrorist threats are growing as Daesh tries to consolidate its presence in the Horn of Africa, where Al-Qaeda long ago put down deep roots.
Organized crime gangs smuggle children and teenagers to Europe and pay local warlords and terrorists to facilitate their trade. They also smuggle hundreds of thousands of young people to the GCC states and Yemen. Every year, Saudi Arabia apprehends hundreds of thousands of them.
Pirates, organized criminals and terrorists work hand in hand to ensure that no effective governance exists. They also work jointly to reap the benefits. For example, in Somalia, pirates and former pirates provide protection for illegal fishing boats, and some now cooperate with Daesh and other terror groups.
Iran exploits the instability in the region to smuggle weapons to the Houthis, threaten freedom of navigation in the Bab Al-Mandab, sell fuel and get around sanctions. Iranian boats are also the main beneficiaries of illegal fishing in Somali waters.
The war in Yemen has brought new threats to the region, including cyberattacks and the smuggling of missiles and missile parts, drones and improvised explosive devices. The use of new guided missiles and remotely controlled boats by Iran-allied Houthi militias has increased the threats to international shipping in the Red Sea. Iran also uses Red Sea islands to get around a UN Security Council-imposed arms embargo and for the training of terrorists.
With the war in Syria raging, the old drug routes from Asia to Europe have been rerouted via the Red Sea. Drugs from Afghanistan now go to Europe through East Africa. Terrorists in turn get funding from protecting the drug trade.
The limited capacity of security forces on the west coast makes it difficult to patrol territorial waters, let alone any area beyond that. The fact is that, other than Egypt, there is no local coast policing to speak of along the western coast of the Red Sea.
Poverty is a major contributing factor to the security threats. Per capita income in Eritrea is about $500 annually and in Ethiopia it is less than $800. Without employment or a social security net, many young people are driven to criminal activity. Weak governance in some countries has enabled formidable transnational illegal activity, making the Red Sea region and the Horn of Africa hubs for international organized crime and terrorism.
There is great urgency to deal with the alarming security threats, some of which are old, while some are new and growing.
The GCC has adopted a comprehensive strategy to deal with these security threats. Its approach relies on two main pillars. Firstly, it suggests a triangular engagement between the two sides of the Red Sea and the international community. This could be achieved by establishing a Red Sea security forum for participants from the three sides. The second pillar is to combine immediate security cooperation with longer-term economic engagement.
Fortunately, proposals discussed in recent meetings are coalescing around the idea of an informal trilateral framework that encourages cooperation between Red Sea littoral states and regional organizations such as the GCC and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development. It also encourages the involvement and cooperation of like-minded international players. This framework should provide a forum for donor coordination and investor coordination. At the same time, it should seek to manage competition between global players by encouraging informal engagement between relevant parties.
*Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC’s assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation, and a columnist for Arab News. The views expressed in this piece are personal, and do not necessarily represent those of the GCC. Twitter: @abuhamad1