LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
August 25/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
There is no distinction between Jew and Greek; the same Lord is Lord of all and is generous to all who call on him. For, ‘Everyone who calls on the name of the Lord shall be saved
Letter to the Romans 10/12-21/:’For there is no distinction between Jew and Greek; the same Lord is Lord of all and is generous to all who call on him. For, ‘Everyone who calls on the name of the Lord shall be saved.’ But how are they to call on one in whom they have not believed? And how are they to believe in one of whom they have never heard? And how are they to hear without someone to proclaim him? And how are they to proclaim him unless they are sent? As it is written, ‘How beautiful are the feet of those who bring good news!’ But not all have obeyed the good news; for Isaiah says, ‘Lord, who has believed our message?’So faith comes from what is heard, and what is heard comes through the word of Christ. But I ask, have they not heard? Indeed they have; for ‘Their voice has gone out to all the earth, and their words to the ends of the world.’ Again I ask, did Israel not understand? First Moses says, ‘I will make you jealous of those who are not a nation; with a foolish nation I will make you angry.’ Then Isaiah is so bold as to say, ‘I have been found by those who did not seek me; I have shown myself to those who did not ask for me.’But of Israel he says, ‘All day long I have held out my hands to a disobedient and contrary people.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on August 24-25/2019
Fitch Ratings Downgrades Lebanon, S&P Maintains its Ratin
Will New US Sanctions Target Hezbollah’s Top Lebanese Allies?
Khalil on S&P and Fitch Ratings: We Have Serious Work Ahead
Aoun Meets Jumblat, Chouf Delegations in Beiteddine
President Aoun assures the Lebanese that economic situation will improve
First Batch of Lebanese Stranded in Turkey Return to Beirut
A soldier remembers the last war with Hezbollah in 2006 – and discusses the next

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 24-25/2019
Iran has test fired a new missile, IRGC commander says
Iran's Zarif Heading to Asia in Push against US Sanctions
Iran has “highly accurate” secret weapons, says minister
Britain sends another warship to Arabian Gulf
Iranian oil tanker pursued by US says it is going to Turkey
Turkey’s Erdogan to visit Russia on Aug. 27: Turkish presidency
Turkey says Syria safe zone center with US fully operational
Turkey Vows Not to Quit Army Post Surrounded in Syria
Idlib’s Fate Deepens Putin-Erdogan Dispute
Syria Kurds Say Will Help Implement US-Turkey 'Safe Zone'
Panic Rocks Kurds in Qandil Mountains over Incessant Turkey, Iran Attacks
Car blast, airstrikes hit Syria’s Idlib: Monitor
Regime forces mass in northwest Syria: Monitor
Corruption trial continues for Sudan’s ousted president al-Bashir
Gunmen open fire on bus in Jordan’s Petra area, no injuries
Explosion in Iraq near Shiite mosque kills three, wounds dozens
Major Issues, Minimal Expectations for G-7 Summit in France
Israel Accuses ‘Islamic Jihad’ of Sabotaging Understandings with Hamas
Muslim Brotherhood Members Look for an Ideology Rethink

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on August 24-25/2019
Will New US Sanctions Target Hezbollah’s Top Lebanese Allies/Mahasen Morsel/Asharq Al Awsat/August 24/2019
A soldier remembers the last war with Hezbollah in 2006 – and discusses the next/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/August 24/2019
All guns blazing from the disruptor in chief/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/August 24/ 2019
India’s energy challenge/John Defterios/Arab News/August 24/ 2019
What Italy needs is strong and stable government/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/August 24/ 2019
Israel should resist Trump's efforts to politicize support/Dennis Ross and Stuart Eizenstat/The Hill/August 24/2019
The US-Iranian scuffle over a ship is a sideshow to events in the Gulf/Simon Henderson/The Hill/August 24/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on August 24-25/2019
Fitch Ratings Downgrades Lebanon, S&P Maintains its Ratings
Associated Press/Naharnet/August 24/2019
Fitch Ratings downgraded Lebanon's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to CCC from B- Friday, while Standard & Poor's Global Ratings affirmed its long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings for Beirut at B-/B, saying the country's outlook remains negative. The international rating agency's downgrade for Lebanon is another blow to the struggling economy of the small Arab country that is suffering from one of the world's highest debt ratios, high unemployment and little growth. Fitch's rating report that came minutes before Standard & Poor's release said the downgrade reflects intensifying pressure on Lebanon's financing model, increasing risks to the government's debt-servicing capacity. It added that downward pressure on banking sector deposits and central bank foreign reserves and increasing dependence on unorthodox measures by the central bank to attract inflows illustrate increased stress on financing. The government is largely relying on financing from the central bank, both in domestic debt markets and for repayment of Eurobonds, Fitch said. Standard & Poor's said the negative outlook reflects that "we could lower our ratings on Lebanon in the next six-12 months if banking system deposits" and the central bank foreign exchange reserves continue to fall, likely reflecting a weak policy environment and impaired market access. Lebanon's Finance Ministry said in a statement late Friday that the two ratings are a reminder for Lebanon's government to reduce its deficit and implement reforms. It said that the reforms have already started and they will be increased as of next year. "This is to say that Lebanon can overcome difficulties and there should be no hesitation not even for one moment," the ministry said. Last month, Lebanon's parliament ratified a controversial austerity budget that aims to save the indebted economy.Lebanon has one of the world's highest public debts in the world, standing at 150% of GDP. Growth has plummeted and budget deficit reached 11% of GDP as economic activities slowed and remittances from Lebanese living abroad shrank. In February, Moody's downgraded Lebanon's issuer ratings to Caa1 from B3 while changing the outlook to stable from negative.

Will New US Sanctions Target Hezbollah’s Top Lebanese Allies?
Mahasen Morsel/Asharq Al Awsat/August 24/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/77814/mahasen-morsel-asharq-al-awsat-will-new-us-sanctions-target-hezbollahs-top-lebanese-allies/
“I am not the one who decides US sanctions against Hezbollah. The US administration is clear in how to handle this issue.”
This is how Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri responded to all criticism against his recent visit to the United States. The criticism was mainly from Free Patriotic Movement MPs and their allies over the premier’s talks with American officials who are perceived as spearheading sanctions against Hezbollah. Most notable of those officials are Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing in the United States Department of the Treasury Marshall Billingslea. Former Lebanese Ambassador to Washington Antoine Chedid told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hariri’s visit was significant given the meetings he held with various officials, specifically Pompeo and senior Treasury officials and World Bank President David Malpass. The visit was deemed a success, said Chedid, after Pompeo stressed the need to preserve the stability of Lebanon’s economic and security institutions despite his clear objectives to impose sanctions against Hezbollah. The official’s remarks reveal that Hariri “succeeded in separating the Lebanese state, its security and political institutions, and the banking sector from Hezbollah. This is no easy feat.”The former envoy added that US sanctions against Iran and Hezbollah are being discussed on a daily basis by the Washington administration and they are not swayed by opinions or dictates.
Close allies
It is also no secret in Lebanon that new sanctions could target top allies to Hezbollah. A senior banking official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the US Treasury may sanction FPM members. He added, however that this is yet to be confirmed. He also said Billingslea has accused FPM chief and Lebanese Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil of exploiting his position to protect Hezbollah. Moreover, the US official expressed concern that Lebanese banks may shirk their obligations to comply with the sanctions, especially those located in areas where Hezbollah wields influence.
Repercussions of sanctions
Economic researcher and strategist, Professor Jassem Ajaka that speculation has been rife about the new wave of sanctions, but it is “certain” that they will include top Lebanese officials who are Hezbollah members and their allies. They will also target businessmen, whom Washington believes hold the keys to the party’s financial dealings. This will pave the way to two scenarios, said Ajaka. The first sees senior politicians being targeted. An American administration official had previously said that politicians in Lebanon hold the vast majority of the country’s wealth, so in order to impose any policy change, one must slap sanctions on them. Indeed, Washington had taken a step in that direction by blacklisting earlier this year two lawmakers. Lebanon will be confronted with a major hurdle, however, when the US blacklists a minister, making it impossible for the government to work with him.
Officials in Washington themselves are conflicted over whether to take this route, said Ajaka. Sanctioning top Lebanese figures will escalate the confrontation between Beirut and Washington. It also undermines the significance the US has placed on Lebanon in its Middle East strategy. Some American officials speculate that senior Lebanese politicians are deliberately escalating their rhetoric to force Washington into a confrontation, which is why Ajaka ruled out this scenario at the moment. The second scenario, he remarked, sees imposing sanctions on lower ranked politicians or figures who work in the shadows and who are members of Hezbollah and its allied parties. These figures control the finances of their parties. According to the American view, this strategy targets Hezbollah’s allies more than the party itself with the aim of driving a wedge between them. The economic and financial impact will be the same in either scenario, remarked Ajaka. They will both hamper the financing of the CEDRE pledges. They may not find any financers at all if the US believes that these parties would benefit from them. Washington could choose to pressure the dollar bonds market, which in turn will lead to popular disgruntlement against these parties and consequently affect the results of the next parliamentary elections. It appears that Lebanon is heading towards financial and economic ruin, should the US so decide, transforming it into another Iran, Syria or Venezuela. Hariri visited the US after obtaining information that dozens of Lebanese officials will be targeted by sanctions. The premier is concerned that ministers in his cabinet may be among them, which may lead to the collapse of the government. It appears, however, that the Americans have given him “temporary” assurances that this will not take place.

Khalil on S&P and Fitch Ratings: We Have Serious Work Ahead
Associated Press/Naharnet/August 24/2019
Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil on Saturday assured that the Lebanese government takes seriously the ratings of Standard & Poor's and Fitch and will pursue serious and structural reforms, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Saturday. “We take these two ratings seriously and confirm our decision to pursue serious and structural reforms. We have the capacity to advance,” said Khalil in the wake of reports issued late on Friday by the international rating agencies. “We have committed to further reforms in the 2020 budget and we have serious work to address the gaps,” he added.
Fitch Ratings downgraded Lebanon's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to CCC from B- Friday, while Standard & Poor's Global Ratings affirmed its long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings for Beirut at B-/B, saying the country's outlook remains negative. The international rating agency's downgrade for Lebanon is another blow to the struggling economy of Lebanon that is suffering from one of the world's highest debt ratios, high unemployment and little growth.

President Aoun assures the Lebanese that economic situation will improve
NNA -Sat 24 Aug 2019 at 12:34 Politics
"Coexistence [in the mountain] will remain and the economic situation will improve through bold decisions," President Michel Aoun said Saturday morning before a delegation of mayors and residents of the Chouf villages, headed by MP Farid Boustani. Aoun, who also met with a delegation from the Mountain headed by "Strong Republic" Parliamentary Bloc Member, MP George Adwan, confirmed that "the current economic crisis is the result of many years of accumulation, not a year or two," adding that he will work to achieve an economic vision that will strengthen the production sectors. In this context, Aoun disclosed that Lebanon will extract oil and gas at a date set for later this year, that will give a big boost to Lebanon's economy in the coming years. Finally, the President stressed the importance of maintaining reconciliation in the mountain, which should not be affected by different political views.

Aoun Meets Jumblat, Chouf Delegations in Beiteddine
Naharnet/August 24/2019
President Michel Aoun received on Saturday at his summer presidential residence in Beiteddine the Druze leader and Progressive Socialist Party chief ex-MP Walid Jumblat accompanied by his spouse Noura Jumblat. “No one is trying to avoid his responsibilities and we are working on (improving) the economic situation. I also assure you that the agreed reconciliations will remain unshaken. We must also attend to the agriculture and industry sectors,” Aoun told his visitors. “For all the bad things we are going through there are positive things to do, and we expect to start exploring for oil and gas soon,” he added. for his part, Jumblat said: "President Aoun will invite officials to a meeting to face the economic and monetary challenges and prepare for the 2020 budget." The President also met with delegations from the Chouf region assuring that he has no concerns about “collaborative life”. He stressed that Lebanon will be able to overcome the difficult economic situation. “Rest assured there is no fear for shared life and we will be able to overcome this difficult situation through decisions necessary to restore activity,” said Aoun to a visiting delegation of mayors, municipal chiefs and residents from towns in Chouf led by MP Farid Bustani. To another delegation led by MP George Adwan, the President said: “The current economic crisis is the result of years of accumulation but we are working to get out of it in cooperation with everyone and we will have an economic vision to strengthen the production sectors.” “The unity of the Mountain area is basic, reconciliation has been achieved and politics must not shake it. Political differences must not lead to divisions over the nation,” Aoun told another visiting delegation.

First Batch of Lebanese Stranded in Turkey Return to Beirut
Naharnet/August 24/2019
Dozens of Lebanese tourists who were stranded in Turkey and Georgia were returned on Saturday to Beirut after falling victim to a scam pulled off by an unlicensed Lebanese travel agency, LBCI TV said. 171 Lebanese nationals including two toddlers were returned from Turkey’s Dalaman Airport. They were trapped in Marmaris after realizing that the return tickets and hotel reservations booked by New Plaza Tours travel agency were fake. Upon the approval of PM Saad Hariri, efforts were coordinated between Civil Aviation at the Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, head of the High Relief Committee Mohammed Kheir, travel and tourism agencies in Lebanon to return the first batch on board Atlas Air Turkish airlines. The first plane arrived Saturday morning at the Beirut airport coming from Marmaris. The rest of the planes are expected to arrive successively. "The agreement stipulates that the High Relief Commission will pay half the rent of the plane and the travel agencies will pay the second half with taxes," Mohammed Shehabeddine, director general of civil aviation, said.Moreover, New Plaza Tours reportedly did not book rooms for its clients in the hotel they arrived to, which forced them to spend their first night sleeping on the floor.

A soldier remembers the last war with Hezbollah in 2006 – and discusses the next
سيث ج. فرانتزمان/جيروسالم بوست: كابتن في الجيش الإسرائيلي يتذكر حرب عام 20016 مع حزب الله ويناقش الحرب المقبلة
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/August 24/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/77808/%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%ab-%d8%ac-%d9%81%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%b2%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85-%d8%a8%d9%88%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d9%83%d8%a7%d8%a8%d8%aa%d9%86-%d9%81%d9%8a/
Some 13 years ago, the sirens warning of incoming Hezbollah rockets blared across Kiryat Yam and southern suburbs of Haifa. They sent families, many unprepared for the war, into shelters. Today, Kiryat Yam is enjoying a pleasant summer, families relaxing outside on the beach. But everyone knows that one day the rocket sirens could sound again and war may come – not just to areas around Haifa, but to the whole of Israel.
Gabi Grabin, a captain in the reserves, is from Efrat in Gush Etzion and remembers the struggles Israel faced 13 years ago vividly.
“We try to keep our eyes on what they do. I am a company commander and we train every year to be prepared for when we are forced back in [to fight Hezbollah].” In 2006, he was a team leader in an engineering unit of Golani; today he is in the Carmeli Brigade (Hativat Carmeli), a reserve infantry unit.
The 2006 war hangs over Israel today like a distant storm whose clouds have gathered again and threaten to break over the country. Hezbollah’s leadership has warned that their rockets, bolstered by precision guidance and new technology from Iran, can strike all of Israel. Former chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot said earlier this year that Israel struck more than 1,000 Iranian targets in Syria, often to interdict Iranian weapons shipments to Hezbollah. In December last year, Israel launched “Northern Shield,” an operation to clear Hezbollah tunnels from the border. The tunnels stretched into Israel. They had been constructed over many years under the noses of UN observers who were supposed to document these violations of UN Resolution 1701.
Hezbollah isn’t even supposed to be on the border, or an armed state within a state, but it has only grown in power since 2006. Prior to the 2006 war, Hezbollah appeared to be sitting on a wire in Lebanon. Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri had been assassinated in a bombing in 2005 and Lebanese protested against Syria’s occupation of Lebanon. Syrian soldiers left and Hezbollah lost some of its main support.
But Hezbollah was watching Israel and specifically Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza. Its guerilla war against Israel in southern Lebanon from the 1980s to 2000 had encouraged Israel under Ehud Barak to leave Lebanon. In 2006, it thought it could continue its war against Israel with minimal consequences and maximum public effect, showcasing how it was “resisting” Israel. This was and is the Hezbollah mantra. It is “defending” Lebanon and resisting what it claims is Israel’s continued control of the Sheb’aa Farms or Mount Dov, an area disputed between Lebanon, Syria and Israel.
The real story is that Hezbollah uses Israel as its excuse to stockpile weapons and to increasingly digest Lebanon, taking over ministries and involving itself in a wide-ranging campaign in Syria in support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Hezbollah has largely profited from that. Now Israel’s concern is that it might turn its attention back to Israel.
GABRIN IS representative of the generation of Israelis who had to contend with Hezbollah in 2006 as young men and are now in their 30s, knowing that another round may take place. He was also one of the last Israelis in Lebanon in 2006, going from room to room in houses and near villages, finding Hezbollah bunkers. He showed bedrooms inside the bunkers to CNN in video broadcasted after the war. Israel demolished the Hezbollah infrastructure before withdrawing.
“I had a very Zionistic education. I joined Golani. My older brother was in the unit and that got me excited to be in the unit.”
It was an interesting time. The Second Intifada was at its height in 2002. Israel had launched Defensive Shield to break the Palestinian suicide terrorism. Grabin saw many operations.
“There were suicide bombers and then the Disengagement during my officers’ course and then in Gaza after Gilad Shalit was kidnapped [on June 25, 2006].”
Grabin enjoyed his training. He saw action in the West Bank and Gaza. In an engineering unit, one is the tip of the spear in combat operations, responsible for dismantling or identifying minefields, breaking barriers and conducting regular infantry operations.
“We felt we were the front of the army where it was needed, in Shechem and then in Gaza after Shalit was kidnapped and we were sent up north,” Grabin recalls. He was being sent wherever the hottest spot was.
On July 12, his unit was in Gaza in the operations dubbed “Summer Rains” after the kidnapping of Shalit. Word came that there had been attacks in the north. Hezbollah had struck at IDF positions near Zarit in the hills overlooking Lebanon.
Shlomi had also been attacked and five civilians injured. Hezbollah’s other prong of attack was an ambush of two Humvees on patrol, killing three soldiers and kidnapping Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. At the time it was thought they were alive, like Shalit; it would be revealed only when their bodies were returned in 2008 that they were killed.
Grabin’s unit heard the news and knew they would be sent north.
“I remember it was unclear as the days went by, there were air raids and it wasn’t clear if the infantry would go in. We were moved up north, planning and preparing.”
Israel had decided on a strong response and IDF chief Dan Halutz and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert ordered airstrikes against Hezbollah. It wasn’t until July 19 that the IDF began to cross the border, eventually culminating in the battle of Bint Jbeil from July 24 to August 11.
“We had no doubt that this would happen,” recalls Grabin. His men knew it would be a different kind of war in Lebanon than facing the Palestinians. It was crossing into a different country and meant preparing for days inside Lebanon.
“Preparing for that, people were quiet and dealing with packing their own gear. There is a close comradeship. There is this feeling of being part of something larger nationally, but you have your fears and the worst scenarios go through your mind, especially as a commander and you have an uplifting feeling of what you trained for.”
In the West Bank or Gaza, soldiers would go out at night on raids and be home by the weekend, he notes.
“We were used to that vibe. We knew that once we crossed the border in Lebanon, we could be there for several days or longer. Hezbollah is a different enemy than Hamas, it is big and well-funded by an enemy country like Iran. We knew it would be a different story. They were well trained.”
Underneath the ground, awaiting the IDF, were tunnels and bunkers. Not all of them were known. Hezbollah’s system of bunkers were nicknamed “nature reserves.” They honeycombed areas of southern Lebanon.
“We didn’t know much about the tunnels. We searched and demolished two areas of those tunnels during the ceasefire.”
Later, the IDF would learn just how extensive the tunnels and Hezbollah systems were, and how close they were to the border.
“While we were prepared, there were two smaller operations and each unit came back with casualties. We knew that anyone who crosses the border comes back with casualties, so we had a big operation aimed at Bint Jbail.”
EVERY YEAR on Rememberance Day, Grabin remembers that first night going into Lebanon.
“I remember my night vision goggles and watching the soldiers pass and the feeling of responsibility of this team I’m responsible for and hoping I’ll make the right decisions, hope it goes according to plan and that we can do what we are meant to do.”
The men in their green uniforms are cautious and there is concern about entering a new country aganst an enemy that is waiting. For days, Israel had been pounded by hundreds of Hezbollah rockets, striking fear into places like Kiryat Yam and Kiryat Shemona.
Children were in shelters. Israel’s air force and artillery firing from behind the border had been unable to fully silence the enemy.
Grabin says he still recalls the feelings of “being part of something amazing and crazy and special in the history of this country, and I hope it goes well and we can bring them back safely. That’s the feeling we went in with.”
Less than a kilometer up a mountain, there were mortar shells fired at the soldiers. Behind the lines, the Israeli news has been broadcasting details about the operation. Hezbollah seems to be as aware of the IDF movements as the army.
“It was too open to the public and I think the army learned a bit after on keeping the news further back,” Grabin recalls.
The first night, the soldiers on Grabin’s team got to a building. They were under constant fire, including up to 20 anti-tank missiles fired at their area.
“We all survived. An anti-tank missile could be fired from kilometers away and we were waiting for the following night to go and get to a different place.”
Eventually, they moved deeper into Bint Jbeil.
“We were trying to get into posts where we were not seen and then stop Katyusha rockets being fired into Israel and be able to target Hezbollah terrorists.”
The town had been evacuated by civilians. Israel artillery had caused extensive damage. Pamphlets dropped from the air had warned the Lebanese to leave.
“Many buildings were hit severely. It was a ghost town, Hezbollah had put down infrastructure. So we were looking for Hezbollah command posts or anything with maps and armed personnel. Our unit did encounter them, but not my team during the first two nights.”
Nevertheless, the anti-tank missiles remained a threat. One of the rooms Grabin’s men were staying in was struck by a rocket.
“There were three of us in the room, and we all came out with small scratches from glass and shrapnel. If that missile had been higher in height where it hit, the story would have been different.”
It was not like anything they had seen before. On the third night, a neighboring unit was involved in a difficult battle in which seven soldiers were killed and 30 injured.
“My team was the closest to them and we took part in it and we came in to take out wounded soldiers with paramedics and took out the bodies.”
TO THIS day, when Grabin meets his comrades they speak about this event. It began after four in the morning.
“We heard explosions and gunfire we thought it was aimed at us, and we were moving around the house and getting on the radio to see what is going on but Brigade 51 of Golani, 200 meters, way was under fire and it took time to get approval to go out and help,” he says. “It wasn’t clear where Hezbollah was, and we went over to them, what we saw was crazy. One room was full of injured soldiers, some severely.”
The Golani fighters gave their comrades ammunition. Their friends had been fighting for hours. With heroism, the IDF soldiers were able to kill more than 40 terrorists, but at a difficult cost.
“These soldiers were under fire, many for the first time, and many of the commanders were wounded or killed. We saw them fight and stand up to do what they needed to do without their commanders.”
The wounded had to be evacuated so helicopters could take them to hospital. Over several hot hours, the bodies of the dead were also brought out.
“Taking care of the wounded and carrying the bodies was something that is the story of our war from my team and that is what comes up,” he recalls. “I had a friend who was an officer in the unit who we came in to help and he was killed. I saw his body later – a friend who had been with me in the army. You don’t have time to think about the personal connection, you work automatically, but when you rest, you have time to think that you know these people and how close it is to you.”
Now it seems like a bad dream. But Grabin is still active in the reserves.
“I am training for it again and I will have to do the same thing. I was 23 in 2006 and now I’m 36 and married with two children.”
Israel should not be in a dream regarding the peace on the northern border over the last 13 years.
“The terrorist organization [Hezbollah] is heavily funded and trained more in Syria. It’s not peace. We are in the same situation waiting for the next war to start – not because we are interested in it.
I have to live my life married, kids and job and keep in mind that I will be called up and keep fit and know when we go back in – it’s not if, but when – and do the same things as when I was 23.”
Grabin says being a father changes the calculations of responsibility.
“We [Israelis] don’t live in a neighborhood that enjoys our presence, so we must be willing to pay that heavy price.”
This is Israel’s challenge.
“ON A personal note, I run Jewish leadership programs called Kolami, a Jewish Agency pre-military academy for leadership that is aimed toward training young adults to take active parts in Jewish world and a large part of that is preparing for the army,” Grabin says.
“What I try to do is try to connect them to the history of those who fought in this country, even if I just talk about 1948 to 2006 and where we are today, we are part of a chain. Unfortunately, we must be willing to fight and pay the price so our families and childen can live here safely, I would love the situation to be different, but we have to do it. David Ben-Gurion said a war is a terrible thing but if it is forced upon us we must make sure we win.”
One of the issues Israel faces today is preparing for what Hezbollah has prepared in southern Lebanon. In 2006, Grabin’s men were surprised to find the extent of Hezbollah tunnels.
“We went in after the ceasefire to make the most of our time before we had to leave due to UN. These areas were in the bushes and hard to see from the air, you have to go in and we went in searching and one commander touched on some rocks and there was an opening to a tunnel system made from fiber-glass and camoflouged on top.” Underneath was an underground world stretching to just 200 meters from the border.
“We found rockets, expolosives, ammo – and all this underground with a room for food and all this extremely close [to the border], and this was made for attacking Israel, this is the idea.”
Hezbollah was preparing to attack in 2006. Israel had gone in after the July raid and discovered the evidence of Hezbollah’s preparations.
“I understood this would happen again, unfortunately.”
So Grabin and his team attempted in 2006 to root out Hezbollah’s tunnels. It blew them up.
“We always prepare for a coming war, so we keep an open mind and try to think of the threats we will meet next time and not necessarily what we met last time.”
Soldiers today are highly motivated he says; the same is true in the reserves.
“I see people in their 30s walking many kilometers and carrying a lot of gear and acting out these scenarios and willing to leave everything behind when they are called on, no matter what their age is and kids and duties, or what they do for a living.”
It’s amazing, he says.
Born in 1983, Grabin grew up in Efrat to American parents.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 24-25/2019
Iran has test fired a new missile, IRGC commander says
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 24 August 2019
Iran tested a new missile on Friday, the commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Hossein Salami said on Saturday, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported. “Our country is always the arena for testing a variety of defense and strategic systems and these are non-stop movements towards the growth of our deterrent power,” Salami said. “And yesterday was one of the successful days for this nation.”He also expressed his opposition to any negotiations with the West, stressing that they are “not a solution to Iran’s problems,” the semi-official Fars news agency reported. “It is a sign of weakness to go from the logic of resistance to negotiating,” said Salami. “When our enemy sees us in a position of weakness, they will increase pressure, therefore, negotiating and compromise are in no way the solution to our problems, and they will not solve any of our issues,” he added. Iran should pursue a policy that eliminates the effects of sanctions, rather than rely on the US and Europe to lift sanctions, he said. Iran’s enemies have “power” but lack “wisdom,” said Salami. “We are witnessing the gradual but evident decline of Western civilization, while at the same time witnessing the dawn and shine of the Sun of Islam,” Fars quoted him as saying.

Iran's Zarif Heading to Asia in Push against US Sanctions
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 24/2019
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif will head to East Asia on Sunday, his office said, as part of a diplomatic push to win relief from biting US sanctions. Zarif would visit China, Japan and Malaysia fresh on the heels of a tour of Western European nations, spokesman Abbas Mousavi said late Friday on the ministry's Telegram channel. "Bilateral relations and most importantly regional and international issues are some of the topics our foreign minister will discuss with the aforementioned countries' officials during the trip," said Mousavi. The United States slapped sanctions on Zarif late last month in a bid to target any assets he has in America and squeeze his ability to function as a globe-trotting diplomat. But Zarif hailed his visit to France on Friday following trips to Finland, Sweden and Norway. In a post on Twitter, he said "despite US efforts to destroy diplomacy" he met French President Emmanuel Macron, Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and had interviews with media in Paris, including AFP. Iran and its arch-foe the United States have been at loggerheads since last year when President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from a 2015 deal under which the Islamic republic agreed to rein in its nuclear activities in return for an easing of sanctions. Twelve months on from the US pullout, Iran began reducing its commitments by surpassing a uranium enrichment cap and exceeding a limit on its reserves. The situation has threatened to spiral out of control, with ships attacked in the Gulf, drones downed and oil tankers seized.
During his visit to France, Zarif told AFP in an interview that he was pleased with the efforts of Macron to defuse the crisis. "President Macron made some suggestions last week to President (Hassan) Rouhani and we believe they are moving in the right direction, although we are not definitely there yet," Zarif said. Macron has been seeking to roll back some of the US measures imposed as part of Trump's campaign of "maximum pressure" on Iran, which insists its nuclear programme is peaceful. French diplomats have raised the idea of US waivers on sanctions affecting Iranian oil exports to India and China, or a new credit line for Tehran that could help the struggling economy.

Iran has “highly accurate” secret weapons, says minister
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 24 August 2019
Iran has “highly accurate” missiles that it has not made public in order to “surprise the enemies,” said Iran’s deputy defense minister, Ghasem Taghizadeh, on Friday, the semi-official Fars news agency reported.
“Many achievements cannot be revealed to the media, so we hide them to surprise the enemy,” said Taghizadeh, adding that Iran today has “highly accurate” missiles that have not yet been unveiled. Iran makes missiles to counter threats, he claimed, adding: “We currently know that the threats against us have a radius of 1,800 kilometers.”Western military analysts say Iran often exaggerates its weapons capabilities, though concerns about its long-range ballistic missile program contributed to Washington last year exiting the 2015 nuclear deal. Taghizadeh also appeared to be warning about targeting US military bases in the region, saying: “Americans know very well that we do not have to go to New York to confront them. Today, there are tens of thousands of Americans in the region and it is for this reason that the Supreme Leader [Ali Khamenei] said that they will not go to war with us.” Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani had also warned earlier this month that Iran would target US military bases across the region in the event of war.

Britain sends another warship to Arabian Gulf
AFP, London/Saturday, 24 August 2019
A third British warship is heading to the Arabian Gulf, the Royal Navy announced on Saturday, amid heightened tensions between the West and Iran. Britain has already sent the HMS Kent to cover for frigate HMS Montrose while it undergoes maintenance in nearby Bahrain, and is now redirecting the Type 45 destroyer HMS Defender from its mission to the Pacific.“Wherever the red ensign flies around the world, the UK stands by to protect freedom of navigation whenever is it tested,” said Defense Secretary Ben Wallace. Britain outraged Iran by seizing one of its tankers - the Grace 1 - on July 4 on suspicion it was carrying oil to Syria in violation of EU sanctions. The HMS Montrose then warned off three Iranian gunboats that UK officials said were trying to “impede” the progress of a British supertanker through the Strait of Hormuz in the Arabian Gulf on July 11. Iranian Revolutionary Guards stormed and detained the UK-flagged Stena Impero and its 23 crew as they sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on July 20. The British government subsequently raised the alert level for ships travelling through Iranian waters to three on a three-point scale, indicating a “critical” threat. Tensions have been escalating in the region, with US President Donald Trump in June calling off at the last minute an air strike on Iran over its downing of a US spy drone. The HMS Defender sailed from Portsmouth on August 12, alongside HMS Kent, which was also heading to the Gulf to replace the HMS Duncan. HMS Defender’s commanding officer Richard Hewitt said his boat would “play her part alongside other Royal Navy warships in keeping these essential trade routes secure.”

Iranian oil tanker pursued by US says it is going to Turkey
The Associated Press, Dubai/Saturday, 24 August 2019
Iranian-flagged oil tanker Adrian Darya 1, pursued by the US amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington, now lists its destination as a port in Turkey. The crew of the Adrian Darya 1, formerly known as the Grace 1, changed its listed destination in its Automatic Identification System to Mesrin, Turkey, early Saturday. However, mariners can input any destination into the AIS, so Turkey may not be its true destination. The ship-tracking website MarineTraffic.com showed the Adrian Darya's position as just south of Sicily in the Mediterranean Sea, also noting that its destination is Mesrin. The Adrian Darya was held for weeks off Gibraltar after being seized by authorities there on suspicion of violating EU sanctions on Syria. The US has a warrant in federal court to seize the ship and has been warning nations not to accept it. Marine tracking data had shown that the Adrian Darya 1 was headed to Greece. Greek Deputy Foreign Minister Miltiadis Varvitsiotis had said that Greece will not provide assistance in delivering oil to Syria to the Iranian tanker.

Turkey’s Erdogan to visit Russia on Aug. 27: Turkish presidency
Reuters, Ankara/Friday, 23 August 2019
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will make a one-day official visit to Russia on August 27, the Turkish presidency said on Friday, hours after he held a phone call with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to discuss developments in northwestern Syria. In the phone call, Erdogan told Putin that an offensive by forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, backed by Moscow, was causing a humanitarian crisis and posed a threat to Turkey’s national security.

Turkey says Syria safe zone center with US fully operational
AFP, Reuters/Saturday, 24 August 2019
A joint Turkish-US operation center to establish and manage a safe zone in northeast Syria is fully operational, Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on Saturday according to Anadolu news agency. The first joint helicopter flight was due to take place on Saturday, Akar added, according to the state-owned agency. On Wednesday, the US and Turkish defense ministers “confirmed their intent to take immediate, coordinated steps to implement the framework,” said a statement by the US Department of Defense. Also on Saturday, a representative of the US-led coalition fighting ISIS said the buffer area sought to “limit any uncoordinated military operations.” “We believe that this dialogue is the only way to secure the border area in a sustainable manner,” Brigadier-General Nicholas Pond said. On August 7, Turkish and US officials agreed to establish a joint operations center to oversee the creation of the “safe zone.”
Little is known about its size or how it will work, but Ankara has said there would be observation posts and joint patrols. Damascus has rejected the agreement as serving “Turkey’s expansionist ambitions.”Syria Kurds say will help implement US-Turkey ‘safe zone’ Meanwhile, Syria’s Kurds said on Saturday they would support the implementation of a US-Turkey deal to set up a buffer zone in their areas along the Turkish border. The so-called “safe zone” agreed by Washington and Ankara earlier this month aims to create a buffer between the Turkish border and Syrian areas controlled by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). The YPG have played a key role in the US-backed battle against ISIS in Syria, but Ankara views them as “terrorists.”On Saturday, Mazloum Kobani, the head of the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces, said his alliance would back the deal. “We will strive to ensure the success of (US) efforts towards implementing the understanding... with the Turkish state,” he said. “The SDF will be a positive party towards the success of this operation,” he told journalists in the northeastern town of Hasakeh. US Central Command said late Friday that the SDF - which expelled ISIS from their last patch of territory in eastern Syria in March - had destroyed outposts in the border area. The SDF destroyed military fortifications” on Thursday, it said in a statement on Twitter. “This demonstrates (the) SDF’s commitment to support implementation of the security mechanism framework.”Syrian Kurds have established an autonomous region in northeast Syria amid the country’s eight-year war. But as the fight against ISIS winds down, the prospect of a US military withdrawal had stoked Kurdish fears of a long-threatened Turkish attack. Turkey has already carried out two offensives into Syria in 2016 and 2018, the second of which saw it and allied Syrian opposition overrun the Kurdish enclave of Afrin in the northwest.

Turkey Vows Not to Quit Army Post Surrounded in Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 24/2019
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Friday that Turkish troops will not quit a military observation post in northwestern Syria where they are surrounded by government forces. "We are there, not because we can't leave but because we don't want to leave," he told a news conference in Lebanon, denying that Turkish troops had been "cut off" by a government advance into the jihadist-ruled Idlib region. Earlier, Syrian regime forces overran a string of towns and villages in the north of Hama province, including the town of Morek, where the Turkish observation post is located, Syria's state news agency SANA said. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that "regime forces have surrounded the Turkish observation post in Morek" after the advance. Cavusoglu acknowledged that "there are clashes in the Idlib region." "Regime forces are conducting activities around our observation post," he said , adding that the issue was being discussed with Damascus allies Russia and Iran. But "our observation point there is not cut-off and nobody can isolate our forces and our soldiers," he added. Rebel-backer Turkey has carried out two cross-border offensives into Syria, where its forces have been deployed for nearly two years. The observation post in Morek is one of 12 the Turkish army set up along the front line between government forces and the jihadists and their rebel allies last year. The troops' mission was to oversee the establishment of a buffer zone agreed by Ankara and Moscow in September. But the jihadists failed to pull back from the zone as agreed and in April, government and Russian forces resumed intense bombardment of the region. "The regime's forces have deployed in Morek and throughout the northern part of Hama province, without attacking the observation post," Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP.
"For the (Turkish) soldiers there is no way out" except through territories now held by the regime and its Russian ally, according to the Observatory. The Idlib region, which sits on the Turkish border, is the last major stronghold of opposition to the Russia-backed Syrian government.
It has been under government assault since late April. Around 900 civilians have been killed, according to the Observatory. More than 400,000 people have been displaced, says the United Nations. The war in Syria has killed more than 370,000 people since it started with the brutal suppression of anti-government protests in 2011.

Idlib’s Fate Deepens Putin-Erdogan Dispute
Moscow - Ankara - Raed Jabr and Saeed Abdelrazek/Asharq Al Awsat/Saturday, 24 August, 2019
The fate of Syria’s northwestern Idlib province has deepened divisions between the Russian and Turkish presidents after Syrian regime forces advanced in Hama’s countryside. Government forces have pounded the south of Idlib province and nearby Hama with air and ground attacks this week. Friday's advance ends opposition presence in Hama. The northwest corner is all that remains in opposition hands after more than eight years of war. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on Friday agreed to "activate mutual efforts" regarding the situation in opposition-run Idlib province, the Kremlin said in a terse statement. But according to Turkey’s presidency, Erdogan told Putin that Syrian army attacks in northwest Syria are causing a humanitarian crisis and threaten Turkey's national security. Erdogan will discuss developments in northwestern Syria in a phone call with US President Donald Trump in the coming days, it said. It added that the Turkish president will make a one-day official visit to Russia on August 27. The recent advances by Assad's forces have put Turkish troops stationed in the region in the firing line. "Regime forces have surrounded the Turkish observation post in Morek after capturing other towns and villages in this pocket," said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. But Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu denied it, saying “our observation point there is not cut-off and nobody can isolate our forces and our soldiers." He called for an immediate end to the fighting but said that Turkish troops were staying put at the Morek observation post out of choice – not necessity. "We are there not because we cannot get out, but because we do not want to get out. We are there in accordance with the deal we made with Russia,” Cavusoglu told a news conference in Lebanon.

Syria Kurds Say Will Help Implement US-Turkey 'Safe Zone'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 24/2019
Syria's Kurds said on Saturday they would support the implementation of a US-Turkey deal to set up a buffer zone in their areas along the Turkish border. The so-called "safe zone" agreed by Washington and Ankara earlier this month aims to create a buffer between the Turkish border and Syrian areas controlled by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). The YPG have played a key role in the US-backed battle against the Islamic State group in Syria, but Ankara views them as "terrorists". On Saturday, Mazloum Kobani, the head of the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces, said his alliance would back the deal. "We will strive to ensure the success of (US) efforts towards implementing the understanding... with the Turkish state," he said. "The SDF will be a positive party towards the success of this operation," he told journalists in the northeastern town of Hasakeh. US Central Command said late Friday that the SDF -- which expelled the Islamic State group from their last patch of territory in eastern Syria in March -- had destroyed outposts in the border area. "The SDF destroyed military fortifications" on Thursday, it said in a statement on Twitter. "This demonstrates (the) SDF's commitment to support implementation of the security mechanism framework." On Wednesday, the US and Turkish defence ministers "confirmed their intent to take immediate, coordinated steps to implement the framework", said a statement by the US Department of Defence. Also on Saturday, a representative of the US-led coalition fighting IS said the buffer area sought to "limit any uncoordinated military operations". "We believe that this dialogue is the only way to secure the border area in a sustainable manner," Brigadier-General Nicholas Pond said. On August 7, Turkish and US officials agreed to establish a joint operations centre to oversee the creation of the "safe zone". Little is known about its size or how it will work, but Ankara has said there would be observation posts and joint patrols. Damascus has rejected the agreement as serving "Turkey's expansionist ambitions".Syrian Kurds have established an autonomous region in northeast Syria amid the country's eight-year war. But as the fight against IS winds down, the prospect of a US military withdrawal had stoked Kurdish fears of a long-threatened Turkish attack. Turkey has already carried out two offensives into Syria in 2016 and 2018, the second of which saw it and allied Syrian rebels overrun the Kurdish enclave of Afrin in the northwest.

Exclusive - Panic Rocks Kurds in Qandil Mountains over Incessant Turkey, Iran Attacks
Qandil Mountains – Ihsan Aziz/Asharq Al Awsat/Saturday, 24 August, 2019
Residents in over 20 Kurdish villages wedged between Iraqi, Iranian and Turkish borders have been living in a state of total horror and panic.  Kurds in that region have been chased down by a series of semi-nonstop Turkish airstrikes coupled with intermittent Iranian artillery shelling that have been taking out targets in the eastern plains of the Qandil Mountains since fall 2018. Arbitrary strikes launched by Turkish warplanes on August 19, for example, severely injured four farmers who were harvesting crops at Pauli village. Large swathes of farmland filled with a variety of fruit-bearing groves were grazed to the ground. The very same raids uprooted villagers, who fled in fear of violence, in seven neighboring communities. Ahmed Nour, 45, reported great damage to his house. “Turkish fighter jets keep buzzing in the skies. Targets and any movements in our villages are fired at indiscriminately. Their vengeful strikes are destroying our farmlands and have forced villagers to flee,” Nour told Asharq Al-Awsat. Responding to Turkish claims about Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) members being hosted by Kurdish villages in the Qandil Mountains, he said: “We are farmers and our only sources of living are the crops and fields we have worked hard to grow over the last years… We have nothing to do with political parties.” “Our villages have no armed presence, whether it is the PKK or Iranian opposition parties. Despite that, Turkish jets target our homes and fields, most of which have been burned to the ground,” Nour added. Targeted Kurds, facing escalatory Turkish and Iranian violence, have turned to blaming regional sovereign authorities for their inaction as their homes get leveled by fierce attacks. Soran Rasoul, 26, a livestock keeper, said: “We hold the authorities in Baghdad and the Iraqi Kurdistan Region responsible for our tragic situation, because they do not take any deterring action against Turkey’s hostility.”Strongly rebuffing Ankara’s claims on PKK militias being present in the villages, he noted that “sovereign states should protect their citizens and territories when subjected to humiliating attacks, such as those being committed by Turkey on a near daily basis.” “Only one or two members of each family have stayed behind to safeguard our property and fields, while Baghdad and Erbil are standing idle.”

Car blast, airstrikes hit Syria’s Idlib: Monitor
Reuters, Beirut/Saturday, 24 August 2019
A car bomb exploded in the opposition-held Syrian city of Idlib on Saturday, a war monitor and opposition news channel said, as airstrikes hit its outskirts in a government offensive on the last major opposition bastion. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and opposition-run Orient News said a car blew up in the al-Qusoor neighborhood. The Observatory said the blast killed two and wounded at least 11. The city and the surrounding Idlib province in northwest Syria form part of the last big opposition stronghold in Syria. A new push by Syrian government and Russian forces to take the area has seen heavy strikes and advances this week in the south of Idlib province and nearby Hama, prompting a new civilian exodus. Hundreds of people have been killed in the campaign since late April, the United Nations says. On Friday Russia-backed Syrian troops reclaimed a cluster of towns they had lost early in the eight-year-old war, driving out the last opposition fighters from the Hama countryside. Idlib city itself has largely been spared airstrikes since a major bombing campaign on the territory began in late April, but on Saturday its outskirts were hit from the air, the Observatory and opposition media said. Heavy strikes continued to hit the south of Idlib province, including around Maarat al-Numan, a city that has been a sanctuary for families fleeing former opposition areas around the country. This week tens of thousands fled to Syria’s border with Turkey as the fighting advanced.

Regime forces mass in northwest Syria: Monitor
AFP, Beirut/Saturday, 24 August 2019
Regime forces massed on Saturday in northwest Syria in a bid to push further north after overrunning a key town and surrounding a Turkish army outpost, a monitor said. Backed by Russia, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces have chipped away at the south of the militants-run bastion of Idlib in past weeks after months of deadly bombardment. On Wednesday, they seized the key town of Khan Sheikhun from militants and allied opposition groups, and on Friday overran the countryside to the south of the town, encircling a Turkish observation post there. On Saturday, loyalist fighters gathered north of Khan Sheikhun, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. “The day after they controlled the area south of Khan Sheikhun, regime forces are massing in the area north of it,” Rami Abdel Rahman, the head of the Britain-based monitoring group, told AFP. They are “preparing to continue their advance toward the area of Maaret al-Numan”, a town some 25 kilometers (15 miles) to the north, he said. That area has come under intense Russian and regime aerial bombardment and been depleted of almost all of its residents in the past two weeks, the Observatory says. After Khan Sheikhun, Maaret al-Noman is the next town on a key highway running across the Idlib province that analysts say is coveted by the regime. Any full government control of that road would allow it to connect the capital Damascus with second city Aleppo, retaken from opposition fighters in late 2016. The Idlib region of some three million people lies on the border with Turkey, and Turkish troops have been deployed at a dozen points around it in an attempt to set up a buffer zone to protect it. A deal between Russia and opposition backer Turkey signed in September last year sought to set up the demilitarized area to avert a full-out regime assault, but militants refused to withdraw. Al-Assad advisor Buthaina Shaaban on Friday accused Turkey of “turning the observation points into spots for transporting weapons and occupying a part of our land.”Earlier Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu denied the observation post in Morek had been surrounded and vowed that his country’s troops would not withdraw from there. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is to visit Moscow on Tuesday for talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

Corruption trial continues for Sudan’s ousted president al-Bashir
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 24 August 2019
Sudan’s ex-president Omar al-Bashir has arrived in court amid tight security for the second week of his trial on corruption and money laundering charges. Al-Bashir’s defense had made an appeal for him to be released on bail, but the judge requested this to be submitted in writing, an Al Arabiya correspondent reported. The ousted president’s defense also asked for the court to allow his family to visit him in prison. Al-Bashir was ousted by the military in April following months of mass protests against his three-decade rule. He’s also wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes and genocide linked to the Darfur conflict in the 2000s. So far, Sudan’s military says he won’t be extradited to The Hague, and the new joint military-civilian council formed this week has given no indication it will change that decision. Al-Bashir faces charges of foreign currency possession, corruption, and money laundering. Prosecutors seek to question him about allegations of money laundering and terrorist financing. - With AP

Gunmen open fire on bus in Jordan’s Petra area, no injuries
Reuters/Saturday, 24 August 2019
Unidentified gunmen opened fire on a bus carrying tourist guides near Jordan’s ancient city of Petra, a major tourist attraction, but there were no injuries, Ammon news agency said on Saturday. “A security source told Ammon that the bus, which belongs to Petra local authorities, sustained material damage but there were no injuries,” the news agency reported.

Explosion in Iraq near Shiite mosque kills three, wounds dozens
The Associated Press, Baghdad/Saturday, 24 August 2019
Iraqi security officials say a motorcycle rigged with explosives went off near a Shiite mosque south of the capital Baghdad, killing three people and wounding 34. The officials said Saturday that the blast occurred the previous evening on a commercial street in the village of Mussayyib. They spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it targeted “gatherings of Shiites” near a Shiite mosque. Iraq declared victory against ISIS in late 2017, but the group continues to carry out attacks through sleeper cells, particularly in the country’s north. Iraq’s military announced it started a new operation early Saturday targeting ISIS hideouts and sleeper cells in the western Anbar province.

Major Issues, Minimal Expectations for G-7 Summit in France
Associated Press/Naharnet/August 24/2019
The world economy is getting shakier by the day, the Amazon has burned its way to the center of the climate change debate, and the leaders of the world's leading democracies will sit around a single table, theoretically charged with coming up with solutions for the biggest problems of the day.
Except that U.S. President Donald Trump is largely uninterested in international agreements, and other G-7 leaders are seriously hobbled at home by political scandal, low poll numbers or lame duck status. Welcome to the annual Group of Seven summit, which begins Saturday in the southern French resort town of Biarritz. French President Emmanuel Macron, the host, has already made clear that he has little expectation that Trump will join any statement on fighting climate change even as the issue shot to the top of the agenda with the widespread fires in the Amazon. He already rejected Trump's request to let Russia rejoin the group five years after being expelled over its seizure of Crimea. And he is trying to hold together the European line on the Iran nuclear deal over U.S. objections. At the same meeting last year, Trump left early and repudiated the final statement in a tweet from Air Force One. This year, Macron said, there will be no final statement. "The situation is difficult because on subjects like trade, Iran or the climate, for the first time in a long time the seven are not unanimous," Macron told reporters earlier this week. "That's why I wanted to avoid pointless declarations. Despite that, I think this work is indispensable because we have to exchange with the United States, because we have to find convergences, because I think it's in our interest to rebuild coordination." Lowered expectations are nothing new for the G-7, but this year's intent seems to be just to avoid diplomatic catastrophe, salvage the possible, and show voters that their leaders have a role on the world stage. "When you have a figure whose positions, whose whims, whose interests seem to change on a dime, it's impossible to plan coordinated policy on that basis. I think what we're seeing is most countries now just trying to wait this out. There's going to be no advancement on the big things that really matter," said Tristen Naylor, a researcher focused on international summits. "There's going to be no big moves on climate change as a united front of seven countries. There's going to be no progress when it comes to the elimination of protectionist trade barriers. It's simply not going to happen. So the best that they can do is just tread water, stop things from becoming worse. That I think is what success at this G-7 will look like," Naylor said. All eyes will be on the dynamic between Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, two figures who relish the unpredictability they have sown. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is on her way out of office. Canadian leader Justin Trudeau, up for re-election this fall, is at the center of a political scandal. Macron himself is deeply unpopular at home, and the yellow vest protesters who have plagued him since last year have followed him to Biarritz. Even this beautiful resort town is rather grumpy at being locked down during the final week of summer break for most of France. The appropriately named Bellevue congress center where the leaders will gather Saturday night overlooks the beach beloved by surfers and swimmers alike. It is entirely empty.

Israel Accuses ‘Islamic Jihad’ of Sabotaging Understandings with Hamas
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 24 August, 2019
Israel has allowed Qatari funds to be transferred to the Gaza Strip amid reports that it has also agreed for using part of the money to pay the salaries of Hamas employees. Meanwhile, an Israeli army spokesman issued a statement slamming the “Islamic Jihad” and accusing it of sabotaging ceasefire agreements with Hamas, and threatening to impose sanctions on it. The statement was issued in an attempt to counter widespread criticism in Israel over its understandings with Hamas, which “hasn’t stopped its rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip,” critics say. Israeli far-right parties are openly demanding a war that would end Hamas’ rule. Israel has lately come under rocket and mortar attacks, responding with heavy shelling on sites in the Gaza Strip. Yet it continued to implement its understandings with Hamas to ease the Israeli siege on the impoverished enclave. In response, far-right leaders slammed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with some describing him as “coward” and “weak,” and accusing him of remaining silent on the rocket attacks. Netanyahu is widely seen as wanting to avoid an escalation in the Gaza Strip before the September 17 general elections. Israeli Minister of Energy Yuval Steinitz, a member of Israel’s cabinet, said Netanyahu is working “firmly but in a wise and deliberate manner,” adding that “Israel's response to the incidents in the south was strict.” He stressed that “Israel is preparing for a large-scale military operation in Gaza in case it finds no other solution.” But Transportation Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who also serves as a cabinet member, said that “keeping up with Hamas” does serve Israel. He noted that there is no suitable solution to confront the missile attacks other than reoccupying the Strip and overthrowing Hamas’ rule. Smotrich and other right-wing leaders called for resuming the assassinations of Palestinian officials in Gaza and abroad. Ministers close to Netanyahu have leaked news saying that Hamas isn’t responsible for the rocket attacks. They said Hamas has sent this message to Israel through Qatar and Egypt, pointing the finger at Islamic Jihad, accusing it of disapproving the understandings between Hamas and Israel. “We do not plan to accept terror attacks and rocket fire against our citizens,” the Israeli army’s Arabic-language spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, said in a statement. “Hamas, as the ruler of the Strip, must enforce its authority over Islamic Jihad and prevent these terror attacks and plots,” Adraee said. He stressed that the Islamic Jihad is responsible for any failure to implement the conditions of the ceasefire agreements and that it will “suffer the consequences” for these activities.

Muslim Brotherhood Members Look for an Ideology Rethink
Cairo - Waleed Abdul Rahman /Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 24 August, 2019
Unfolding developments signaled that one of Egypt’s most feared terror groups, the Muslim Brotherhood, could be heading towards total collapse as media leaks exposed a widening rift pitting the organization’s imprisoned youth against its leadership abroad. Leaked documents revealed demands made by Brotherhood officials and youth in captivity from fugitive leaders abroad and uncovered the splintered reality the organization has come to. Many of the group’s senior officials were rounded up and sent to jail in Egypt for committing violence inspired by the Brotherhood’s radical ideology. One of the most vocally expressed demands was the need to bail captured Brotherhood members out of jail and then move towards a badly needed revision of post-radicalization principles and values they had acquired. Amro Abdellmeneim, an Egypt-based expert on fundamentalist movements, told Asharq Al-Awsat in a phone interview that “the documents revealed the size of differences within the group.”In an initiative, a group called "1350" filed for amnesty and said its members will rethink the values they learned from the Brotherhood. 1350’s initiative had especially angered Brotherhood leaders abroad, prompting Mahmoud Hussein, the group’s Secretary-General, to completely deny the existence of such mobilizations. Saying that such movements do not belong to the organization, Hussein accused them of seeking to “break the will and stability of the Brotherhood members abroad and in prisons as well.”
Brotherhood youths in Turkey, for their part, suggested bailing out imprisoned comrades through the formation of a nonprofit. Bail was set at $5,000 per prisoner. Another initiative was proposed by another affiliate formed from Brotherhood members in Turkey and Qatar, and recommended a full revision and reform of the group’s ideology. This followed corruption scandals tied to the group’s leaders who happen to be receiving funds abroad whilst abandoning the imprisoned youth in Egypt.Brotherhood media spokesman Talaat Fahmy, for his part, said the initiatives presented “a step backwards and meant dissolving the organization,” something he noted as “totally rejected.”

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on August 24-25/2019
All guns blazing from the disruptor in chief
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/August 24/ 2019
Multilateral gatherings changed in tone and substance when Donald Trump became US president.
Trump prefers to negotiate bilaterally; he sees an advantage to being the world’s largest economy and greatest superpower, and wants to maximise his clout by being the strong man against one — not against many.
The fault lines were pretty much established before the G7 heads of state even boarded their planes for a summit in the French coastal resort of Biarritz. There is the G5, and then there is the G2.
The G5 consists of France (G7 president this year), Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan. To this we may add the EU. They see largely eye to eye on trade wars and their harmful effect on the global economy —unsurprisingly, since Japan and Germany are the world’s export champions alongside China and the Asian dragons. They also agree on the need to address climate change and increase social equality.
EU Council President Donald Tusk put on hold a free trade agreement with the Mercosur countries, which include Brazil, until the fires in the Amazon region are extinguished and Brazil does more to protect the world’s largest rainforest.
Meanwhile France is leading efforts to tax tech companies where they generate their profits rather than in tax havens. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin locked horns on this issue two months ago, because Washington views such a tax as an assault on mainly US companies.
Europe also fundamentally disagrees with the US over the 2015 agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for an easing of sanctions. Trump pulled out of the deal and reimposed US sanctions; Europe is seeking a way to rescue the agreement, but with little success so far.
The G2, on the other hand, would be the US and the UK — the Trump and Boris show. The president and Britain’s new prime minister like each other; Trump was saying Boris Johnson could lead the UK long before Theresa May’s resignation was on the agenda. The president also likes Brexit, a further illustration of his distaste for multilateral frameworks.
Europe also fundamentally disagrees with the US over the 2015 agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for an easing of sanctions.
Johnson is at odds with the G5 on Brexit. He visited Berlin and Paris last week to urge the scrapping of the “Irish backstop,” a mechanism to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic if the UK and the EU cannot reach an agreement on Brexit. He repeated that Britain would leave the EU on Oct. 31, come what may, and was rebuffed by both Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. On Saturday Tusk said in no uncertain terms that he would not be bullied by Johnson’s grandstanding.
Johnson needs to do whatever he can to please Trump, because he will be in dire need of friends and a trade agreement with the US once the UK stands alone. He is closer to the G5 on China trade wars, Iran, the digital tax and the environment — but needs must, and he will do what it takes. All in all, this will not be an easy summit, which Macron foresaw when he said not to expect a communiqué.
We have come to expect incendiary presidential tweets from Air Force One en route to summits, and this time Trump outdid himself by announcing an additional 5 percent tariff on Chinese imports. He had admittedly been provoked by Xi Jinping, who overnight on Thursday announced new tariffs on $75 billion worth of imports from the US. Trump did not stop there, and ordered US companies to stop purchasing goods from China. None of this bodes well for the resolution of their trade war.
The G7 emerged in the 1970s as a framework for the world’s leading economies to discuss issues of common concern. Its importance has been superseded by the G20 since the financial crisis in 2008, which makes sense because that framework gives weight to the emerging economies of the East and the South.
Trump may dislike multilateral frameworks, but many of the world’s issues — trade, the economy, the environment, poverty, migration — can be resolved only if countries cooperate in cool and calm deliberations, not erratic tweets. The president might do well to recall a proverb from the American Midwest: “It is honey that attracts the bees, not vinegar.”
It is a pity to see the US losing interest in a multilateral global architecture of which, more than any other country, it laid the foundations. The US was also one of the main beneficiaries of a framework that helped create prosperity and solve conflicts around the world. There is no doubt that any institution will need reform after a number of years, but reform is a far cry from destruction.
• Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources

India’s energy challenge
John Defterios/Arab News/August 24/ 2019
It is big, fast growing, with a young population and a middle class that is nearly as big as the entire US population. Those attributes all line up in the plus column for India, but on the other side of the ledger, this giant emerging market is dealing with a thirst for energy, rising CO2 emissions and alarming air pollution.
This is India’s energy challenge and the first stop on our year-long journey around the world for CNN’s new program, “The Global Energy Challenge,” dedicated to discover what is realistic in the transition from hydrocarbon to renewable energy.
From a policy perspective, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the government that preceded his have been pushing development of renewable energy, with capacity growing five-fold in the past two decades. India now ranks just behind China as the second largest solar market in the world.
India surpassed its initial targets for renewable energy and plans to hit 175 gigawatts in three years, most of that from solar power. Investment into the sector jumped to $15 billion dollars (SR56 billion) last year, a five-fold increase since 2004, according to IRENA, the UAE-based renewable energy agency. It is a good news story, right? Think again.
Our two week, 3,000 kilometer journey started in the capital New Delhi, home to 20 million people and carrying the infamous title of the most polluted city in the world. It is where I met 30-year-old Varun Sivaram. The Stanford-educated Rhodes scholar and author of “Taming the Sun: Innovations to Harness Solar Energy and Power the Planet” packed up his bags for India to support its energy transition.
“I couldn’t think of a better country around the world where you have a more exciting or more challenging energy transition,” he said as we walked through a bustling Delhi street market.
He talked of 300 million more people moving to India’s cities by 2050, adding three-quarters of new building inventory to deal with that urbanization and the country being home to nine of the ten most polluted cities worldwide.
“India is the place to be, the place we must be because as climate change continues to ravage the planet and developing countries in particular, it’s going to be nations like India with rapid emissions growth that have to step up,” added Sivaram. Herein lies the debate in the energy community. Prime Minister Modi pledged to deliver electricity to every village in the vast country to deal with what is commonly known as energy poverty. Providing access to energy for all is Sustainable Development Goal number seven of 17 in the UN charter to be achieved by 2030.
But the problem in India is that most of that electricity is driven by coal. India’s capacity for thermal energy is officially 56 percent, but during the intense summer months when demands soars, it makes up more than 70 percent of energy supplies.
We traveled to the city of Singrauli, in the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, which is known as the beating heart of coal country. This part of India has eight coal fired power plants, spewing emissions 365 days a year, with miners working three shifts, 24 hours a day. As I conducted my interview deep in an open-cast mine, the pollution rises behind us.
“Coal is abundantly available here. There is a total of 12 billion tons of coal lying here. It can continue for up to more than 40 years,” said Prabhat Kumar Sinha, Chairman of Northern Coalfields Limited.
Singrauli is labelled by the government as a “critically polluted area,” one that needs addressing through better infrastructure and mining techniques to limit coal dust and capture emissions. But that does not mean production will slow down. In fact, Chairman Sinha told me, output will rise by 20 percent in the next five years.
The chief executive of the largest solar power company summed up today’s reality for India with energy demand set to double over the next dozen years.
“The reality is that even if we meet 50 percent of the new incremental demand from renewable energy, the balance also has to be met from somewhere … and therefore the slack is going to be picked up by coal,” said Sumant Sinha, Chairman and Managing Director of ReNew Power.
India is eager to tackle the dual economic challenge — reduce poverty through economic development and at the same time, meet climate change targets.
No one I met on all sides of the debate said the energy challenge will be an easy one.
*John Defterios is CNN Business Emerging Markets Editor and host of The Global Energy Challenge on CNN International.

What Italy needs is strong and stable government
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/August 24/ 2019
Italian President Sergio Mattarella’s deadline for political parties to form a new government expires on Tuesday. Italy has had more than 60 governments since 1945, and the latest political instability is unsettling not just domestic audiences, but international ones too.
Italy, a key G7 nation with the fourth-largest EU economy, has the second-biggest debt load in the eurozone, and its banking sector is under significant stress with under-performing loans. The fear is not just of fresh elections, with the uncertainty they would bring, but also that a new administration would be weak, unstable and incapable of securing the structural reforms that the country badly needs — raising the prospect of further political paralysis.
The stormy 14-month coalition between the far-right League and anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) collapsed last week. Mattarella summoned leaders of the main parties — the coalition partners plus the smaller far-right party Brothers of Italy, the right-of centre Forza Italia and the center-left Democratic Party (PD) — and gave them four days to form a new administration.
Mattarella will meet the leaders again on Tuesday and “make the necessary decisions.” If no one can form a new government, the president must either appoint a caretaker prime minister and government, or order new elections.
Last week’s government collapse was no great surprise. Relations between M5S and the League had been deteriorating for months. The administration, whose formation initially sent shockwaves around Europe, was the result of elections in March 2018 in which no party or bloc won an overall parliamentary majority.
The headlines then were captured by M5S, founded a decade ago by comic Beppe Grillo and now led by Luigo Di Maio, which capitalised on a rancorous campaign dominated by immigration and economic woes. However, since then it is the League that has made political headway and surged in the polls.
The latest bout of Italian instability could bring new elections or a hastily constructed government that could again comprise the League and M5S.
Part of the reason for MS5’s decline is that it reneged on its pledge not to join a coalition. Ultimately it took a leap of faith to align with the League, with which it has key policy similarities, after their strong showing in last year’s election; together they won more than half the vote.
Despite these tensions, a new alliance between these two parties cannot be ruled out, in part because of the poor showing in last year’s elections of the two political forces that have dominated Italian politics for decades — Forza Italia and the PD.
However, concerns are growing again about Italy’s future. There remains significant public disquiet over corruption, the migration crisis, and the fragility of the economy, with double-digit unemployment and low growth. Indeed, only Greece has fared worse in the eurozone in the past two decades, which has fueled the political success of anti-establishment politics.
New elections could again be inconclusive. A relatively new voting system that is two thirds proportional representation,and one third first-past-the-post makes it harder for one party to win an outright majority; the threshold is now about 40 percent of the vote, to which no party has come close in recent years.
It is for this reason that Mattarella may seek a review of election law to see if a less proportional, more “first-past-the-post” system is better suited to Italy’s needs. This would repeat the constitutional debate in 2016, when Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s planned reforms to bring greater political stability were voted down in a referendum. Renzi’s argument then was that more stable majorities were needed in the legislature, bringing stronger government that would enable reforms needed to enhance economic growth and reduce the public debt. However, opponents of the reforms, including ex-technocrat prime minister Mario Monti, said they would have given the executive excessive power and made government less accountable. So the latest bout of Italian instability could bring new elections or a hastily constructed government that could again comprise the League and M5S. However, in most plausible scenarios a key danger is that a new administration will be weak, unstable and incapable of securing the structural reforms that Italy badly needs.
*Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics

Israel should resist Trump's efforts to politicize support
Dennis Ross and Stuart Eizenstat/The Hill/August 24/2019
The two of us have long been committed to the U.S.-Israeli relationship, understanding its importance for both countries. It is not only that Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East, but it stands as a bulwark against radical Islamist threats, whether coming from Iran or ISIS. From this standpoint, it is both our values and our interests that have underpinned the U.S.-Israeli relationship over the years.
Values and interests also led Israel to be an American interest — not a Republican or Democratic interest.
Politics can be fickle and being a bipartisan interest was critical to Israel’s standing in this country. True, at times, historically one party or the other might have been more sympathetic toward Israel. But the important point is that the fundamental nature of Israel being nonpartisan was always sustained, and even when there were policy differences between Israeli governments and American administrations — Carter, Bush 41, and Obama — Congressional support for Israel remained largely bipartisan. That is at risk today, and not simply because there is a segment of the Democratic Party that seems more inclined to be critical of Israel, less aware of its history, and largely dismissive or unaware of the threats it faces. It is remarkable that for some, like Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), it is as if two unilateral Israeli withdrawals from southern Lebanon and Gaza, the death of half a million Syrians — which includes thousands of Palestinians — Hezbollah ruling over Lebanon, Iranian efforts to embed itself in Syria and along the Golan Heights, Hamas rockets and tunnels into Israel, and ISIS in the Sinai do not exist.
Of course, Omar and Tlaib are not the sum total of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
Moreover, the risk or threat to Israel’s bipartisan posture did not begin with Donald Trump; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to the U.S. Congress in 2015 against President Obama’s prospective nuclear deal with Iran, worked out in an invitation by then-Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) behind the backs of the Democratic Party leadership and the Obama White House, was a terrible blow to Israel’s nonpartisan identity. But Donald Trump has taken this to an entirely different level.
It may well be a natural byproduct of his politics of polarization — but there can be little doubt that President Trump is the first president consciously to make Israel a partisan issue and to seek to drive a wedge between Israel and the Democrats. His latest statement that Jews who vote Democratic show “lack of knowledge or great disloyalty” is stunning not just for its rank partisanship but its suggestion that opposition to his policies means disloyalty either to the United States or to Israel — the former suggests one cannot question his policies without being a traitor, the latter raises the ugly specter for Jews of dual loyalty.
None of this means that we believe that President Trump’s support for Israel is being driven solely by partisan motivations; nor is it to say that his administration’s strong symbolic support for Israel’s right of self-defense or moving of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem does not send a powerful message that America will always be there for Israel — and that is clearly important. But if moving the embassy was done to make a statement about getting the world to adjust to the reality that some significant part of Jerusalem would always be Israel’s capital, why were no Democrats invited to the opening ceremony? This should have been a statement on behalf of all Americans. It wasn’t, hardly the act of someone who was thinking about Israel’s long-term well-being.
Perhaps any prime minister of Israel would have sought to take advantage of Trump’s readiness to support Israel symbolically, and certainly Benjamin Netanyahu has done so. But at a time when Trump seeks to make Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib the face of the Democratic Party, the prime minister of Israel should not be abetting that policy.
Netanyahu’s initial instinct was clearly to allow Omar and Tlaib to enter Israel. Note, for example, the July 19 statement of his ambassador to the United States, Ron Dermer: “Out of respect for the US Congress and the great alliance between Israel and America, we would not deny entry to any member of Congress into Israel.”
Knowing Ron Dermer, it is inconceivable he would have done this without checking with Netanyahu — and this was the right posture. Israel is a democracy, the only one in the Middle East. Like all countries it has its warts, but it is an amazing country and anyone going to it would see that — and unlike the other countries in the region, it is open, it is transparent, it has nothing to hide.
Yes, Omar and Tlaib had an agenda that was one-sided and designed to make Israel look exclusively like the victimizer and Palestinians look like helpless victims. But their agenda was so blatant as to expose their fundamental bias; few would have taken that seriously. Now, of course, thanks to the decision to bar them, they are victims, and receiving far greater attention than they deserve or would have had.
Israel comes off looking like it is just another Middle Eastern country — or like Russia or China, which bar those who might expose their authoritarianism. So Israel loses.
But who gains aside from Omar and Tlaib? Donald Trump and his desire to paint Democrats with the brush of Omar and Tlaib. His tweet that it was a sign of “weakness” for Israel to allow them in was enough for Netanyahu to cave; that unfortunately was a sign of weakness and not strength.
Israel is America’s ally in the Middle East — and Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib and Donald Trump should not be allowed to undermine its bipartisan support.
*Dennis Ross is counselor and the William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He served as special assistant to President Obama, as Special Middle East Coordinator under President Clinton, and as director of the State Department's Policy Planning Staff in the first Bush administration. He is the author, with David Makovsky, of the forthcoming book "Be Strong and of Good Courage," which will be released September 3. Follow him on Twitter @AmbDennisRoss.
*Stuart Eizenstat is senior counsel at Covington & Burling LLP and heads their international practice; this is written in his personal capacity. He's the former domestic policy advisor to President Jimmy Carter, former U.S. ambassador to the EU and former Deputy Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton. He's the author of "President Carter: The White House Years." Follow him on Twitter @StuartEizenstat.
They co-chair the Jewish People Policy Institute, a non-profit policy planning think tank based in Jerusalem.

The US-Iranian scuffle over a ship is a sideshow to events in the Gulf
Simon Henderson/The Hill/August 24/2019
The first act has ended, and the second act is about to begin. But a lot is going on backstage during the intermission in the legal drama between the United States and Iran involving an Iranian oil tanker, now renamed the Adrian Darya 1.
The tanker was held in the British territory of Gibraltar from July 4 until last week because its oil was destined for an embargoed Syria. Now it is moving towards Greece, and Washington has warned Athens against assisting the tanker in any way.
Will Greece allow the oil to be transferred to other tankers? Take your seats and make yourself comfortable for the next, possibly final, act. There appear to be two likely outcomes: Either Iran’s economic and political isolation is increased, or Washington’s sanctions policy suffers an embarrassing setback. Greek authorities have said that any decision will be in line with European Union rules on Iran, whatever that means. After all, Gibraltar seized the tanker because of those rules — and then reinterpreted them, in order to release the ship.
The obvious action may be taking place in the Mediterranean but the drama is rooted more than a thousand miles further east, in the Persian Gulf. The Iranian tanker was originally seized by British marines; then, on July 20, Iranian commandos fast-roped onto the deck of the British-flagged tanker Stena Impero as it entered the Gulf, and forced it to go to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. The supposed reason for that Iranian action was a minor collision with a fishing boat which needed to be investigated, but that incident probably never happened. The seizure was simple Iranian piracy, a tit-for-tat gesture of insolence for Gibraltar’s action.
The evidence for this is that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps had made an earlier attempt to seize a UK tanker, the British Heritage, on July 11 until an escorting British frigate, HMS Montrose, successfully intervened. Audio of an Iranian officer ordering the Stena to turn due north, toward Iran, is matched by the dulcet tones of a British naval officer declaring the right of transit passage.
The deciding factor in that confrontation was, almost certainly, that British marine sniper teams on the deck of the Montrose used their scopes to paint laser beams on the chests of the commanders of the three harassing Iranian fast boats. When push comes to shove, there are limits to the desire of even Iranian Revolutionary Guards for martyrdom. Whatever happens in the Mediterranean, future events in the Gulf are far more crucial, because of the Gulf’s preeminence in world oil supply. On Wednesday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said during a meeting with the country's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that if “Iran’s oil exports are brought down to zero, international waterways can’t have the same security as before.”
Iran has been pushing the limits since at least May. First, there were the attacks on four tankers anchored off the United Arab Emirates (UAE) port in Fujairah, apparently the work of Iranian frogmen. Then, two tankers — one Saudi, the other Emirati — were attacked as they were underway. Additionally, there were drone attacks on two pumping stations of the Saudi pipeline which connects the Gulf with the Red Sea.
Those drone attacks may have originated to the north in Iraq or in the south, in Houthi rebel-controlled areas of Yemen. The Iranian-supported Houthis also claimed responsibility for the drone attack this past weekend on the Saudi oilfield of Shayba, on the border with the UAE. The field, apparently only mildly damaged, produces one million barrels of oil a day — a huge amount.
The increase in tension in recent months has been paralleled by a decline in confidence in American leadership, epitomized by the moment when, on June 20, Iran shot down an American reconnaissance drone and President Trump then backed away from retaliatory action a few minutes before the first strikes would have happened. Meanwhile, traditional Gulf allies of Washington have become, in the circumstances, cautious, asking for more proof that Iran was responsible for the tanker attacks or sending diplomats to Tehran for bilateral talks.
The American tactic for the moment appears to be that old Washington favorite, a legal challenge — hence, Gibraltar and whatever else happens this week. Efforts to form a military coalition are moving painfully slowly. So far only the UK, Australia and Bahrain have signed up.
In the Gulf, legal threats mean little. With substantial U.S. naval forces inside the Strait of Hormuz and at least one carrier strike group outside, the U.S. military has considerable assets at the ready. Indeed, many more than the British Royal Navy. Yet, so far, the deciding factor in the latest confrontations with Iran has been the steady hands holding sniper scopes on Iranian adversaries rather than those controlling an F-18.
*Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Follow him on Twitter @shendersongulf.