English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese
Related, Global News & Editorials
For
April 23/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
Baptizing them in the name of the Father and
of the Son and of the Holy Spirit
Matthew 28/16-20: “The eleven disciples went to Galilee, to the mountain to
which Jesus had directed them. When they saw him, they worshipped him; but some
doubted. And Jesus came and said to them, ‘All authority in heaven and on earth
has been given to me. Go therefore and make disciples of all nations, baptizing
them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit, and
teaching them to obey everything that I have commanded you. And remember, I am
with you always, to the end of the age.’”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News & Editorials published on April 22-23/2020
MoPH: Five new Covid-19 cases
Patient Dies of Coronavirus in Dinnieh
First virus case recorded in refugee camp in Lebanon
Lebanon Tests for COVID-19 Infections at Refugee Camp
Hassan Says Lockdown in Place to Prevent Second Wave of Cornavirus
International Human Rights Committee regrets legalization of cannabis in Lebanon
Lebanon’s Protests Regain Momentum
Protest convoy in Nabatieh calls for recovery of looted fun
Convoys of protesters in Beirut rally against simmering economic situ
Protest convoy in Sidon rails against dire economic situation
Legislative Session Ends after Quorum Lost during Debate of Social Aid Plan
Lebanon's Parliament General Secretariat Lashes Out at Government
Lebanon’s acceptance of black-market exchange rate angers small depositors
Central Bank: Circular 151 meant to secure purchasing power for citizens
MP Urges Withdrawal of Central Bank's Circular
BDL Says USD Account Withdrawals Have $5,000 Monthly Cap
Bassil Sees Plot in Aid Plan Shelving, BDL Memos, Street Protests
Hizbullah MP Resigns from Supreme Council to Try Ministers and Presidents
Minister of Labor bans social media ads relevant to domestic workers
Hariri offers condolences to Jumblatt and Hamade
Najm: Committed to following up on investigations to bring Baakline massacre
perpetrators to justice
Druze Sheikh Akl: To place Baakline shooting in hands of judiciary
Ministry of Information partners with WHO, UNICEF and UNDP to counter spread of
COVID-19 misinformation in Lebanon
Jumblat Says Lebanon Ruled by 'Black Operations Room'
Nasrallah Describes Lebanon's Coronavirus Situation as 'Good'
President Aoun discusses health developments with Health Minister, WHO
representative
Grand Mufti urges Parliament to approve general amnesty law
Lebanon's relaxed cannabis laws 'could lead to more corruption'/Sunnniva
Rose/The National/April 22/2020
Hezbollah suffers blow to funding from Iran amid pandemic/Thomas Harding/The
National/April 22/2020
Hanin Ghaddar on Weakening Hezbollah's Control of Lebanon/Marilyn Stern/Middle
East Forum Radio/April 22/2020
Kawtharani… Hezbollah’s Iraq File Maestro
A new Soleimani? US zeroes in on shadowy Hezbollah power broker in Iraq/Ali
Choukeir/The Times Of Israel/April 22/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
April 22-23/2020
Pope at General Audience: This 50th Earth Day, We Must Renew Sacred Respect for
the Earth
WHO Says Coronavirus 'Will be with Us for a Long Time
Diab Says Govt. in the Dark on BDL Decisions, to Speak Friday
U.S. Govt. Experts Warn against Virus Drug Combo Promoted by Trump
UN Rights Chief Slams Iran over Execution of Young Offenders
Iran’s Guard says it launched satellite amid US tensions
Iran can export coronavirus testing kits: President Rouhani
Rights Group: 'Pitiful Sanitary, Hygiene Conditions' in Iranian Jails
Trump issues stern warning to Iran after naval incident in Gulf
Pompeo warns Iran, comments on combating coronavirus, oil market stability and
China
Erdogan Stresses Ongoing Turkish Support for Libya’s Sarraj
Pandemic Hotbeds in Syria's Prisons
PA Says New Israeli Govt. a 'Threat to Stability'
Attacker Shot Dead after Stabbing Israeli Policeman
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on
April 22-23/2020
COVID-19 and the Economy in Regime-Held Syria/David Adesnik/FDD/April 22/2020
Kim Jong Un’s Health and What Comes Next/David Maxwell/FDD/April 22/2020
China's Communist rulers made the world sick, with help from, you know,
WHO/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/April 22/2020
Coronavirus: The West's 9/11 Moment/Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/April
22/2020
Coronavirus: Belgian Carnage/Drieu Godefridi/Gatestone Institute/April 22/2020
Erdoğan's Turkey Is Not Coming Back/Daniel Pipes/National Interest/April 21/2020
How “the Evil Called Barack Obama” Enabled the Genocidal Slaughter of Nigerian
Christians/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/April 21/2020
Worrisome America/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/ April 22/2020
Opposing an IMF Loan to Iran: Not an Outlier, Not a Barrier to Aid/Patrick
Clawson/The Washington Institute/April 22/2020
Iran’s lucrative crime-terrorism nexus with Venezuela continues amid coronavirus/Joze
Pelayo/Al Arabiya/April 22/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published on
April 22-23/2020
MoPH: Five new Covid-19 cases
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
Five new cases of Covid-19 have been recorded within the last 24 hours, taking
Lebanon's tally to 682, as indicated by the Ministry of Public Health in its
daily report on Wednesday.
Patient Dies of Coronavirus in Dinnieh
Naharnet/April 22/2020
A patient from the northern town of al-Dinnieh infected with coronavirus has
succumbed to his illness and died at Tripoli’s governmental hospital, the
National News Agency reported on Wednesday. The man, who contracted the virus
and transmitted it to his wife, two children and nephew, died late on Tuesday,
said NNA. NNA said the deceased had suffered from heart and lung complications.
His death raises the number of fatalities to 22 in Lebanon. On Tuesday, Lebanon
recorded zero cases of coronavirus. The total number of people who contracted
the virus is 677.
First virus case recorded in refugee camp in Lebanon
Associated Press/April 22/2020
They include one Palestinian who lives outside a camp, and three Syrian
residents who have tested positive.
BEIRUT: A Palestinian woman from Syria has become the first refugee living in a
camp in Lebanon to test positive for the coronavirus, the U.N. agency for
Palestinian refugees said Wednesday. It triggered a spate of testing to
determine whether other residents have been infected.
The agency, UNRWA, said the woman resided in the only Palestinian camp in
eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa region. It said all necessary measures had been taken
and the patient was transferred to the government-run Rafik Hariri Hospital in
Beirut. Lebanon, a country of 5 million, hosts tens of thousands of Palestinian
refugees and their descendants, most of them living in squalid camps that
resemble jungles of concrete. They have no access to public services, limited
employment opportunities, and no rights to ownership. The country is also home
to more than 1 million Syrian refugees and other Syrians who are residents. The
tiny country has recorded 22 deaths from among 682 confirmed cases of COVID-19,
the illness caused by the virus. They include one Palestinian who lives outside
a camp and three Syrian residents who have tested positive.Wednesday’s
announcement was the first involving a refugee living inside one of the
camps.“There is always a concern of an outbreak in a crowded place like the
camps ... but we hope that the measures we are taking with the ministry and
others concerned will help us avoid an outbreak,” said Huda Samra,
communications advisor for UNRWA in Lebanon. Up to 3,000 people live in the
Wavel camp in the city of Baalbek, known locally as the Jalil, or Galilee camp.
Samra said a team comprising UNRWA members and Rafik Hariri hospital staff
tested 146 people at the camp Wednesday, including all those who had contacts
with the woman in recent days. She said the agency was committed to paying all
testing and hospital expenses.
Lack of testing has stoked fears among millions of displaced people around the
world packed into refugee camps and informal settlements. Wednesday’s
announcement sparked concern in Lebanon, where human rights groups have long
decried discriminatory measures against refugees.
Most people who become infected experience mild to moderate symptoms. But the
virus can cause severe illness and lead to death, particularly among older
people and those with underlying health problems. It is highly contagious and
can be spread by those who appear healthy. “The agency is doing everything
necessary to provide the required assistance to the patient’s family to allow
them to isolate themselves with all the arrangements required and to secure the
necessary needs,” the UNRWA statement said Wednesday. Lebanese Health Minister
Hamad Hassan told reporters that two teams from the ministry headed on Wednesday
morning to the Bekaa Valley, one to the Baalbek General Hospital and another to
the Wavel camp where they will take test samples.
Refugee cases will be treated exactly like their Lebanese counterparts, the
minister said, comments that were apparently in response to rights groups’
questions about Lebanon’s ability to provide refugees with health care.
Earlier this month, Human Rights Watch said at least 21 Lebanese municipalities
introduced discriminatory restrictions on Syrian refugees that do not apply to
Lebanese residents as part of efforts to combat COVID-19, undermining the
country’s public health response.
The Baalbek region is one of the least infected districts in Lebanon, with less
than five cases, according to government statistics.
Also on Wednesday, Iran reported 94 more deaths from the virus, with the death
toll in the country now reaching 5,391, out of 85,996 confirmed cases. Iran is
the hardest-hit country in the Mideast and one of the world’s worst outbreaks of
the coronavirus.
In Saudi Arabia, the state-run news agency said King Salman is permitting the
preachers at Islam’s holiest mosques in Mecca and Medina to perform nightly
Ramadan prayers. However, worshippers from the public will not be permitted to
attend due to restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of the virus. The
Kingdom announced earlier this week the continued suspension of prayers at
mosques nationwide.
Egypt’s parliament Wednesday passed a draft bill amending the country’s state of
emergency law to give President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi broad powers to fight the
spread of the virus. The amendments, which only need el-Sissi’s signature to
become law, also expand military prosecutions to potentially including alleged
crimes committed during the state of emergency. Egypt has been under a state of
emergency since April 2017, and the government extended it earlier this month
for another three months. The law was originally passed to give the president
broader powers to fight terrorist threats and drug trafficking.
The new amendments enable el-Sissi to take a number of actions to curb the
virus, such as suspending classes at schools and universities and quarantining
returnees from abroad. But they also include expanded powers to ban public and
private meetings, protests, celebrations and other forms of assembly. Egypt has
recorded nearly 3,500 cases of the virus, with 264 deaths.
Jordan on Wednesday eased movement restrictions in three large and sparsely
populated southern districts where no coronavirus cases have been reported. Life
began returning to normal in the districts of Karak, Maan, and Tefillah. In the
city of Karak, 120 kilometers (75 miles) south of the capital of Amman, heavy
traffic-clogged streets Wednesday. Mosques, churches, schools, and universities
remain closed. But citizens are allowed to use their cars between 10 a.m. and 6
p.m. The Red Sea port of Aqaba, located 340 kilometers (210 miles) south of
Amman, was the first to see the easing of curfew restrictions as of Sunday
morning. Jordan has recorded 428 positive cases of the virus and seven deaths,
according to a tally kept by John Hopkins University.
Lebanon Tests for COVID-19 Infections at Refugee Camp
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 April, 2020
Lebanon’s Rafik Hariri University Hospital will send a medical team to test for
the new coronavirus at a refugee camp on Wednesday after a female resident was
found to be infected, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) said. A
Palestinian refugee from Syria at the Wavel refugee camp in the Bekaa valley was
transferred to hospital in Beirut for treatment that will be covered by the
relief agency, a statement said. UNRWA said it was “taking all necessary steps
to provide the required assistance to the patient’s family to allow them to
isolate themselves inside the house”. The testing will focus on the woman's
relatives and people she has interacted with, as well as 50 others chosen
arbitrarily "inside the camp and its surroundings", AFP reported. In
coordination with Lebanese security forces, Palestinian factions in charge of
security have imposed a lockdown on the camp, preventing anyone from entering or
leaving. More than 2,000 people live in Wavel, according to statistics released
by Lebanon's government after a 2017 census, but the UN agency says the
population of those registered in the camp are much higher. According to the
United Nations, Lebanon has 470,000 registered Palestinian refugees, but an
official 2017 census put the number living in the country much lower, at around
175,000. Meanwhile, Syrian refugees account for almost one million of the
country's population of six million. The Lebanese government has worried about
the virus hitting camps for Syrian and Palestinian refugees where high
population densities are likely to accelerate its spread, Reuters reported.
However, just one Palestinian, who lives outside a camp, and three Syrians have
tested positive in Lebanon for COVID-19 compared to 677 infections and 21 deaths
across the country, according to officials.
Hassan Says Lockdown in Place to Prevent Second Wave of
Cornavirus
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Health Minister Hamad Hassan said Wednesday that more PCR tests will be run in
the next fifteen days to prevent a new wave of coronavirus despite the progress
achieved in limiting its spread. “In the next fifteen days and until May 10 we
will raise the number of PCR tests in order to get a clear picture about the
measures we need to take," in the next phase, said Hassan from Baabda Palace
after meeting the President. The Minister stated during his meeting with
President Michel Aoun that he briefed him on the steps taken by his ministry
regarding expanding the number of tests conducted in various Lebanese regions.
On the so-called government-imposed general mobilization period, Hassan said it
will prolong further “to prevent a second wave of the virus despite the results
achieved so far.”
The Health Ministry announced zero coronavirus cases on Tuesday, keeping the
number of people infected at 677, dead at 21.
International Human Rights Committee regrets legalization
of cannabis in Lebanon
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
The International Commission for Human Rights on Wednesday deplored the Lebanese
parliament’s ratification of a law allowing the cultivation of cannabis for
medical and industrial use.
Middle East Commissioner for Human Rights, Ambassador Dr. Haitham Abou Saiid,
said that the legalization of cannabis for public or recreational use varied
from one country to another, yet the possession of cannabis was illegal in most
countries, as per the International Opium Convention of 1925. He deemed
Lebanon’s argument for legalizing cannabis for medical use as futile and
exaggerated. “Lebanon may face difficulties promoting this at the legal level,
especially on the international scene,” he said, warning that this might bare
harmful consequences for the Lebanese society, especially amid the current
situation in the country.
Lebanon’s Protests Regain Momentum
Beirut/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 April, 2020
Despite a “general mobilization” announced by the authorities to face the
COVID-19 disease, Lebanon’s anti-government protests regained momentum on
Tuesday as Parliament convened to discuss a number of laws. Protestors rallied
across the country through convoys, adhering to social distancing measures. Some
demonstrators gathered around the UNESCO Palace in Beirut, where deputies held a
parliament session, amid heavy security measures. They called for the recovery
of looted funds, the independence of the judiciary, an economic plan, and
holding the corrupt accountable. They also protested against rampant corruption
and the devaluation of the Lebanese currency. “Our revolution will continue
until we achieve our demands,” they shouted. Some of them considered dying from
COVID-19 similar to dying from hunger. “The virus will not stop us from
continuing our protests,” they said. Lebanon has been facing its worst economic
crisis in decades, with unemployment figures soaring and the local currency
losing more than half of its value against the dollar. Protests broke out
nationwide in October against government corruption, further deepening the
economic slump. Over the past months, the protests lost some of their momentum
and were subsequently interrupted by the outbreak of the pandemic. Activists,
however, said they were resuming the movement but would protest in their cars,
in line with safety measures. Outside Beirut, there were convoys in the north,
south and the east, with protesters wearing masks and respecting an Interior
Ministry decision that only allows vehicles with license plates ending in an
even digit, including zero, to circulate on roads Tuesdays. The Lebanese Health
Ministry reported on Tuesday that no new coronavirus cases have been recorded in
the past 24 hours, leaving Lebanon's tally at 677.
Protest convoy in Nabatieh calls for recovery of looted
funds
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
A convoy of protesters on Wednesday rallied in the southern city of Nabatieh and
drove their cars through the City’s various streets for the second day in a row,
calling for the recovery of public looted funds and holding the Corrupt
accountable.
Demonstrators also called for putting limits to the continuously hiking prices
of daily living needs and the dollar rate exchange.
Convoys of protesters in Beirut rally against simmering
economic situation
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
Convoys of protesters on Wednesday drove their cars through the various streets
of the city of Beirut, as part of a series of movements to protest against the
deteriorating economic situation and the devaluation of the national currency,
NNA Correspondent reported.
Protesters confirmed the continuation of the "October 17 Revolution" with all
its goals and slogans since its inception, most notably the recovery of public
looted money, holding the Corrupt accountable and blaming authority and
government for the collapse and lack of seriousness in approaching main
dossiers, especially the financial topic. Waving the Lebanese flags, the protest
convoy roamed the main streets of the capital, Beirut, setting out from Martyrs
Square, to be joined by other convoys in certain meeting points coming from
other Lebanese regions.
Protesters stressed that the Corona pandemic will not dissuade them from
pursuing their movements, and they shall continue their protest movement till
they realize all their objectives.
Protest convoy in Sidon rails against dire economic situation
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
A convoy of protesters on Wednesday drove their cars up and down the Southern
coastal city of Sidon for the second day in a row to rail against the
deteriorating economic situation and the continuously hiking prices of daily
living needs in Lebanon. Protesters, who have odd car plate numbers — in
compliance with the interior ministry’s law on traffic movement during lockdown,
waved Lebanese flags and chanted slogans confirming the continuation of protests
and the return to street demonstrations once the coronavirus pandemic is no
longer a threat.
Legislative Session Ends after Quorum Lost during Debate of
Social Aid Plan
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri ended the legislative session on Wednesday after
quorum was lost during the debate of a draft law that gives the government LBP
1,200 billion for its coronavirus social aid plan. TV networks said the session
will not resume in the evening or on Thursday. Parliament also voted against the
approval of four draft laws and sent three of them to the parliamentary
committees. The three bills that will be reevaluated by the committees are one
for lifting the immunity of ministers, one for suspending works at the Bisri dam
project and another for shortening the current term of parliament. MP Paula
Yacoubian, who had submitted the Bisri dam bill, described the project as an
“environmental crime.” Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel meanwhile described
the draft law for shortening parliament's term as “the most important proposal
on the agenda.”“We need to give people the chance to issue public verdicts,”
Gemayel said. Parliament also dropped another draft law proposed by Yacoubian,
which would have banned the display of posters of leaders, officials and
employees in public places. During the session, Prime Minister Hassan Diab said
the government supports the approval of the bill. But the proposal was dropped
in a vote and the word “disgusting” was omitted from the minutes of meeting, the
National News Agency said. The legislature had first convened on Tuesday
morning, approving several draft laws and sending others to parliamentary
committees for further assessment.
Before Wednesday's session convened, MPs made remarks to reporters. MP Ibrahim
Kanaan, who is the secretary of the Strong Lebanon bloc and the head of the
Finance and Budget Parliamentary Committee, urged quick action in light of “the
extraordinary financial, economic and social conditions." "We are on the verge
of collapse and the living conditions of people must be given top priority," he
said. On draft laws to try ministers before the ordinary courts, Hizbullah MP
Hassan Fadlallah said: “We must reach a result. Until this moment we have been
incapable of taking not even one minister before a court. We are ready to
proceed with any amendment of the law or the constitution in this context.”MP
Alain Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement said all efforts must be exerted to
try corrupt ministers, “otherwise we better admit that we are unable to approach
any perpetrator and let them go unpunished.”
On Tuesday, MPs approved a $120 million loan from the World Bank to help fight
COVID-19, which has officially infected 682 people and killed 22 nationwide.
Parliament also approved a law for establishing a national commission for
combating corruption and another for constructing a tunnel that would link the
Bekaa region to the capital Beirut. It meanwhile voted against approving a
contentious general amnesty law in an urgent manner and sent the bill to
parliamentary committees for reevaluation. The committees have been granted a
15-day deadline to complete the task. The legislature also approved a bill
legalizing the cultivation of cannabis for medical use amid the objections of
Hizbullah's bloc and several independent MPs.
Lebanon's Parliament General Secretariat Lashes Out at
Government
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Parliament's General Secretariat lashed out Wednesday at the government in a
rare stance. “The government must learn how to send draft laws to parliament
before insulting it,” the General Secretariat said in a terse statement. Arab
Tawhid Movement leader Wiam Wahhab meanwhile suggested that there are tensions
between Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Hassan Diab. “With all my due
appreciation of Speaker Berri, I wish that someone would be able to tell me what
does Speaker Berri want from PM Hassan Diab. What is the reason behind this
harsh approach which we did not witness towards any of the previous premiers?”
Wahhab added. During a legislative session earlier in the day, Berri responded
to a request by Diab for holding an evening session by saying that “no one can
impose anything on parliament.” The premier wanted the evening session in a bid
to secure approval of a draft law that grants the government LBP 1,200 billion
for its coronavirus economic and social aid plan. Quorum was lost during the
discussion of the proposal in the afternoon.
Lebanon’s acceptance of black-market exchange rate angers
small depositors
Jacob Boswall, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday/April 22/2020
A decision to allow Lebanese depositors to withdraw their foreign currency
deposits at the black-market rate has drawn strong criticism on social media.
Those with deposits of over $3,000 will be able to withdraw their money
“according to market rates” published daily by banks, according to a circular
from Lebanon’s central bank the Banque du Liban. Black market exchange rates
reached 3,200 Lebanese Lira against the dollar on Monday this week. The BDL has
pledged to intervene to bring it below 2,600 LL by the end of the week, but is
far from reaching the previous peg of 1,500 LL to the dollar. Depositors with
less than $3,000 will still be able to withdraw local currency at a rate of
2,600 LL – considerably below the black market price - as per a circular
published last month. Critics accuse the decision of unfairly targeting smaller
account holders, who will now receive a less favourable exchange rate for their
local currency withdrawals than larger account holders. Lebanese economist and
financial journalist Mohammad Zbeeb claimed the BDL had passed on the haircut –
a financial term referring to a loss incurred to a creditor - to small account
holders. “The aim of this is to protect the owners of large deposits and bank
capital from any direct deduction,” he said in a tweet. Mike Azar, a financial
adviser, described the process of “Lirafication” – effectively encouraging the
conversion of foreign currency into local currency – as “catastrophic.” Azar and
other critics allege that the circular directly contradicts a leaked financial
blueprint for the heavily-indebted country, drawn up between the government and
its financial advisers, Lazard. “This will convert BDL losses in USD into
massive losses in Lira - it shifts losses from the Banks to BDL. Hard to
understand the rationale for this other than to undermine the government plan
and the government's response, which was specifically opposed to Lirafication
and for good reason,” he said in a tweet. The draft plan, currently being
discussed by the cabinet, pledged to preserve the assets of small accounts which
make up more than 90 percent of all deposits.
Central Bank: Circular 151 meant to secure purchasing power
for citizens
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
The Central Bank of Lebanon clarified in a statement this Wednesday that
"Resolution 151 issued on April 21, 2020 shall allow depositors in US dollars in
Lebanese banks, should they choose to, withdraw their money in Lebanese pounds
at the market exchange rate, provided that such withdrawals do not exceed USD
5000 per month, and that they be done only at the request of the depositor. The
Central Bank would not set a minimum for withdrawals, hence allowing each bank
to make such a decision, depending on its capacity, as had been previously
done.""The Central Bank has issued this exceptional circular to facilitate the
lives of the Lebanese and secure their purchasing power and thus a decent
living. This decision was in no way intended to allow the withdrawal of all
balances, as some have rumored," the bank stressed.
MP Urges Withdrawal of Central Bank's Circular
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Following the Central Bank’s circular on bank withdrawals, criticisms mounted
with MP Michel Daher on Wednesday urging BDL governor Riad Salameh to annul the
decision. “I ask the Central Bank governor to withdraw BDL’s memo because it
will trigger a sharp rise in the dollar exchange rate to the Lebanese Pound. It
will weaken the purchasing power of the majority of Lebanese,” noted Daher.
"Where will we get the dollars from to absorb this cash block that will be
offered on the market when this circular is applied? Beware of a social
explosion as a result of these wrong policies,” said Daher.
Salameh on Tuesday issued a memo asking banks to allow depositors with foreign
currency accounts exceeding $3,000 in value to withdraw their savings in
Lebanese pounds at the "market rate," likely to signify 2,600 pounds to the
dollar.
The memo says each bank would apply its own “measures and limits” in
implementing the resolution. A liquidity crisis had seen banks gradually
restrict access to dollars and halt transfers abroad since late 2019, leading
the value of the Lebanese pound to plummet on the black market. For decades, the
Lebanese pound has been used interchangeably with the dollar at a fixed exchange
rate of 1,507 pounds to the greenback. A dollar is now worth more than 3,000
pounds on the black market and prices have shot up in recent months. On March
30, banks suspended dollar withdrawals until the airport reopens, after
authorities grounded flights to halt the spread of the novel coronavirus. Those
with dollar accounts had been frustrated at their inability to take out most of
their cash to exchange it at a better rate from unofficial money changers, with
some banks already capping withdrawals at as low as $400 a month. Lebanese banks
stand accused of transferring millions of dollars abroad while preventing others
from doing so after the start of mass protests against the political elite last
October.
BDL Says USD Account Withdrawals Have $5,000 Monthly Cap
Naharnet/April 22/2020
The central bank on Wednesday issued a statement clarifying its Tuesday memo,
after the circular sparked a storm of controversy. “Resolution 151 which was
issued on 21/4/2020 allowed each client who has a USD account in Lebanese banks
to withdraw cash in Lebanese lira at market rate on the condition that the
withdrawals do not exceed $5,000 per month and only at the client's request,”
BDL said. “Banque du Liban did not mention lower caps, leaving it to every bank
to decide the cap according to its capabilities,” BDL added. “BDL issued this
extraordinary circular to facilitate the lives of the Lebanese and to provide
them with purchasing power and decent living and it was not aimed at withdrawing
the entire values of the accounts as some have claimed,” the central bank went
on to say. Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh on Tuesday issued a memo asking
banks to allow depositors with foreign currency accounts exceeding $3,000 in
value to withdraw their savings in Lebanese pounds at the "market rate," likely
to signify 2,600 pounds to the dollar. He had issued a similar memo in recent
weeks related to accounts containing less than $3,000 each. Salameh said he
issued the memo “out of keenness on the public interest amid the current
extraordinary circumstances that the country is going through,” noting that the
resolution is valid for six months. But critics have warned that such measures
will have a detrimental impact on the value of the Lebanese pound.
Bassil Sees Plot in Aid Plan Shelving, BDL Memos, Street
Protests
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Free Patriotic Movement leader Jebran Bassil suggested Wednesday that a series
of recent developments are a “premeditated plot.” “How can some torpedo the most
important law submitted by the government, which entails financial support worth
LBP 1,200 billion for farmers, industrialists and craftsmen, for importing raw
material and for offering subsidized loans to small and medium enterprises?!”
Bassil tweeted, shortly after a legislative session ended due to loss of quorum
during the debate of the proposal. “How can the central bank issue circulars
that lead to the collapse of the lira exchange rate?” Bassil added.
He also charged that some political parties are orchestrating the latest street
protests as part of a “premeditated plot.”
Hizbullah MP Resigns from Supreme Council to Try Ministers and Presidents
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Hizbullah MP Ali Ammar on Wednesday resigned from the Supreme Council to Try
Ministers and Presidents. Ammar submitted his membership resignation notifying
the Council of his decision. According to LBCI TV station, Parliament Speaker
Nabih Berri voiced hopes that Ammar reconsiders his decision.
The reason for Ammar's abrupt resignation was not disclosed. The Supreme Council
to try Presidents and Ministers, consists of seven deputies elected by the
Chamber of Deputies and of eight of the highest Lebanese judges, according to
their rank in the judicial hierarchy, or, in case of equal ranks, in the order
of seniority. They meet under the presidency of the judge of the highest rank.
The Decisions of condemnation by the Supreme Council shall be rendered by a
majority of ten votes.
Minister of Labor bans social media ads relevant to
domestic workers
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
The Ministry of Labor issued a circular on Wednesday whereby it reminded the
Lebanese employing foreign domestic workers that it was illegal to post on
social media any sort of advertisements relevant to these people.Such acts fall
under the title of human trafficking, and are punishable under the Lebanese law,
the Ministry warned.
Hariri offers condolences to Jumblatt and Hamade
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri contacted today the head of the Progressive
Socialist Party, former deputy Walid Jumblatt, offering his condolences for the
victims of the Baakline massacre. He expressed his solidarity with the families
of the Lebanese and Syrian victims, and the inhabitants of Baakline in general.
Hariri also contacted MP Marwan Hamade for the same purpose.
Najm: Committed to following up on investigations to bring
Baakline massacre perpetrators to justice
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
Minister of Justice, Marie-Claude Najm, tweeted this Wednesday: "In the wake of
the massacre that shook our beloved Baakline yesterday and sent tremors all
across Lebanon, I cannot but express to the families of the innocent victims my
deepest condolences and my completest solidarity, as a citizen and as a State
official. I hereby announce my firm commitment to following up on the extensive
security and judicial investigations underway to bring the perpetrators of this
crime to justice."
Druze Sheikh Akl: To place Baakline shooting in hands of
judiciary
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
Sheikh Akl of the Druze community, Sheikh Naim Hassan, denounced “the heinous
crime that took the lives of nine individuals in the town of Baakline,”
stressing in a statement the need to “place the matter into the hands of the
judiciary and the security services tasked to unveil the circumstances of the
incident and achieve justice.”Hassan relayed his heartfelt condolences to the
families of the victims.
Ministry of Information partners with WHO, UNICEF and UNDP
to counter spread of COVID-19 misinformation in Lebanon
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
As the Lebanese government battles the COVID-19 pandemic, a dangerous epidemic
of misinformation has been circulating through different communication channels
and in communities since the beginning of the outbreak preventing people to heed
official health warnings. To counter the growing scourge of fake news, the
Ministry of Information is taking further steps and announced today a new
communications response initiative in partnership with WHO, UNICEF and UNDP to
flood media and social media with facts and science.
Minister of Information, Dr. Manal Abdel Samad stressed on the many risks linked
to fake news: “yesterday, the drop of the coronavirus infections was accompanied
by a very dangerous rumour, which is the end of the Corona pandemic in Lebanon.
This is a simple sample of misinformation that creates confusion and false hope.
Today we announce a new partnership with the UN organizations: World Health
Organization, UNICEF, the United Nations Development Program, to tackle the
threat of fake news”.
She added: “our partnership includes several phases: a media campaign that we
launched today along with a rumour log and at a later stage a website will be
launched to verify information.”
Rumours linked to COVID-19 are not only circulating in Lebanon but also across
the globe. Conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus and the vaccines
being developed to prevent it still arise on a daily basis. Posts or videos that
promote unverified treatments and cures have collected thousands of views.
With the support of UNICEF, WHO and UNDP, the Ministry of Information will
develop a rumour log to record locally monitored rumours, verify them and
provide neutral, accurate, trusted information to each shared rumour. A
reporting website will be also available to allow people to report and fact
check any news they’ve heard of. A campaign will be disseminating on media and
social media widely shared fake news along with their accurate answers.
“The battle against the COVID-19 outbreak is a double-fold struggle with the
spread of misinformation that is harmful and could lead to serious repercussions
to the health of individuals and their families,” stated Dr. Iman Shankiti, WHO
Representative in Lebanon. “Together with our UN partners and the Ministry of
Information we will make sure to counter any and every rumour with solid facts
putting the health of the public in the forefront of the fight against the
coronavirus pandemic.
“Misinformation leaves children, families and communities, unprotected and
vulnerable to the disease, and it also spreads fear and stigmatization”, said
Yukie Mokuo, UNICEF Lebanon Representative. “This is a time for science and
solidarity. Our collaboration today with the ministry of Information is more
crucial than ever to spread the correct information and make it loud and clear
amongst families to always consult reliable and trusted sources”.
“As with the courageous front-line healthcare workers engaged against the spread
of the virus, we can all join the fight against COVID 19 by promoting facts and
science and embracing hope over despair and divisions. As part of our efforts to
counter fake news, we have launched with LBCI the “Count to 10” campaign earlier
last month and today’s partnership with the Ministry of Information, UNICEF and
WHO marks another milestone in strengthening our collective efforts to combat
misinformation, and rumors” said Celine Moyroud ,UNDP Resident Representative.
To combat misinformation related to COVID-19, think carefully before sharing any
news. Verify the source and its evidence, double-check with trusted sources like
the websites of the Ministry of Information, Ministry of Public Health, WHO,
UNICEF and UNDP among others.
Jumblat Says Lebanon Ruled by 'Black Operations Room'
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat charged Wednesday that the
country is being ruled by what he called a “black operations room.”
“Day after day, it becomes more and more evident that the country is ruled by a
black operations room that rejects any reform and has plans for further
impoverishment with the aim of gaining more control,” Jumblat tweeted. “As if
the construction of a tunnel between Beirut and the Bekaa is more important than
reforming and modernizing the electricity sector and ending the deficit,” he
added.“As to negotiating with the International Monetary Fund, it is prohibited
with the aim of facilitating hegemony over what's left of Lebanon,” Jumblat went
on to say.
Nasrallah Describes Lebanon's Coronavirus Situation as
'Good'
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Wednesday said “Lebanon's situation
in the anti-coronavirus fight is good due to the efforts of the government, the
Health Ministry and people's respect for the measures.”
“Confronting coronavirus is a religious duty and abiding by the measures is a
religious duty,” said Nasrallah in a televised speech on the eve of the holy
month of Ramadan. “Commitment to the measures must continue and through patience
we can triumph over coronavirus,” he added.
The daily rate of Lebanon's coronavirus cases has declined in recent days.Five
cases were confirmed on Wednesday, taking the total to 682.
President Aoun discusses health developments with Health
Minister, WHO representative
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, received Health Minister, Hamad
Hassan and World Health Organization Representative, Iman Al-Shanqiti, today at
the Presidential Palace.
President Aoun discussed, with Hassan and Al-Shanqiti, the results of the
measures that Lebanon is taking to confront Corona, and the next stage that will
include taking additional samples from various regions which would contribute to
providing a clearer picture of the reality of the pandemic in Lebanon.
After the meeting which was attended by the President's health and social
adviser, former MP Walid Khoury, Minister Hassan said "We were honored to visit
the President, and we discussed the reality of Corona Virus, in the presence of
Dr. Iman Al-Shanqiti. We put his Excellency in the atmosphere of the procedures
which the Health Ministry is taking, especially in terms of expanding the set of
tests conducted on all Lebanese territories, so that in the next stage we can
make a careful evaluation, especially in terms of public mobilization and the
subsequent steps to be taken. At the meantime, we presented the list of
countries which provide support to Lebanon and the Health Ministry, specifically
within the existing campaign to raise PCR examinations to two thousand exams
daily with a thankful contribution from the brotherly State of Kuwait".
"We have 15 days remaining till next 10th of May, in order to raise the number
of laboratory tests to reach the general international average of 15,000 exams
per million people, and we will reach this number and then the picture becomes
clear to take immediate action based on field data" Hassan stated.
Then, Dr. Al-Shanqiti said "I thank His Excellency, the President, for his
continuous support to us, as well as the Health Minister. I would like to
confirm that we, as a global health organization, are working hand in hand with
the Ministry, and currently that the measures taken by the Health Ministry and
the Government through public mobilization and followed instructions, have
helped to reach the situation which we enjoy today. I ask for more cooperation
from everyone and adherence to procedures in order to complete the work
together. The organization is a key partner of the Ministry, and we are
continuing to support it, and there will also be support for Government
hospitals, which will be announced later".
"I would also like to thank Kuwait for its generous contribution to the health
organization, which allowed us to provide the ability to conduct a hundred
thousand laboratory tests, which will increase the capacity of the numerical
survey to reach 15 thousand tests for every million citizens, and thus will
allow us to take appropriate measures, during the next two weeks" Al-Shanqiti
added.
Questions & Answers:
Minister Hassan was asked about his assessment of the goals set two months after
the first Corona case appearance in Lebanon, and he answered: "This question is
a summary of the previous stage, and despite all the proposals that were raised
and caused media hype and fear among the Lebanese, it was found that through
institutional work, we can protect society despite the weak capabilities. What
has been achieved falls within the proposed plan, and what we are currently
doing is to complete it, but beware of being deceived by the numbers, reaching
zero cases yesterday, is not a given and decisions can be taken accordingly. It
is true that we have achieved all the goals set during the past two months, and
we are awaiting a second wave of expatriates from the Lebanese dispersed abroad,
which is an additional responsibility, knowing that they have the right to
return to their homeland and we have a responsibility to accompany them, so the
public mobilization will continue. And I would like to draw attention to the
anxiety, like all countries of the world, that we will be exposed to a second
wave of the epidemic, when people will return to public life after the end of
mobilization is lifted, there will be confusion of course. Therefore, what we
are doing to increase the number of test samples in different regions, whether
those infections were recorded or not, is to avoid a second wave of cases, and
we work through that according to the plan and goals set by the ministry in
coordination with the WHO".
The Health Minister was then asked about the injury recorded in the Galilee camp
and the fear of a greater prevalence of injuries due to overcrowding inside the
camp, where he answered "Our joint responsibility as the Health Ministry and
international organizations, and in particular UNRWA, in regards to Palestinian
refugees, in coordination with the Health Organization, is to do the same
procedures as any Lebanese injury in any region, with the same responsibility,
professionalism. Today, two teams from the Ministry went to the Baalbek
Governmental Hospital and to the Galilee camp, in coordination with UNRWA, to
take samples and accordingly, the measures will be taken, but I wrote that at
night I followed what happened, and the measures taken are correct".
Asked about what is being said about easing the procedures, Minister Hassan said
"We are continuing with public mobilization, and we have been informed by the
President that the Supreme Council of Defense will be held next Friday before
the Cabinet session in Baabda Palace, and mobilization is a decision that is
taken by the Government as a whole and not by the ministry, Rather, to the
extent that we are satisfied with the results, we are accurate and reckoning
that we will not be exposed to a second wave of the epidemic, otherwise we
risked everything that had been achieved and wagered on something difficult to
control. With the community, through trust, transparency and existing
cooperation, we must continue the march to reach the right place".
Dr. Al-Shanqiti was asked about the latest medical attempts to combat Corona,
and her opinion about the desire shown by some countries of the world to lift
procedures and measures taken, where she said "There is a lot of talk about
medicines and vaccines against Corona, and so far we do not have any proven data
about it. I confirm that Lebanon has entered into the existing global clinical
trials as part of a campaign of drug trials being tested".
As for easing procedures, I ask people to give us some time as well, because any
easing currently in an ill-conceived manner can turn things against us.
Therefore what is required is more patience, knowing the difficulty of the
economic situation and the ability of people to coexist with the current
circumstances, but we have, as His Excellency the Minister said, to deal with
the current numbers with great caution and it cannot be said that we have
overcome the danger, we are still observing and we must exercise caution in all
what we do. And if there is a decision to lift the procedures, it must be done
in a deliberate and gradual manner, but as a representative of the WHO I advise
to continue for the next two weeks, but it is up to the local authorities to
take this decision". ----Presidency Press Office
Grand Mufti urges Parliament to approve general amnesty law
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
Grand Mufti, Sheikh Abdullatif Derian, on Wednesday urged the Parliament to
approve a law granting general amnesty to thousands of prisoners. "We implore
the Parliament to regard prisoners with mercy and justice pertaining the amnesty
law," said the Mufti in his Ramadan message, stressing that pardon must be
general. Derian also called politicians to steer clear of vexatious attitude and
provocative slogans which only serve narrow interests.
Lebanon's relaxed cannabis laws 'could lead to more
corruption'
Sunnniva Rose/The National/April 22/2020
Lebanon is the first Arab country to legalise cannabis for medical use
Lebanon's legalisation of cannabis for medical use has been praised by
politicians who highlighted its potential to shore up the state’s debt-ridden
coffers, but locals and specialists warned that it could increase corruption.
MP Antoine Habchi, who worked on a draft version of the bill, said it was a
“major accomplishment” and could provide work opportunities for poverty-stricken
regions of the country.
“The bill, in its final form, has taken into consideration international
standards, quality control, anti-monopoly measures, and a dynamic model of
public private management,” said Mr Habchi, who sat on a parliamentary committee
that studied the legalisation of cannabis for more than a year.
MP Yassine Jaber, who headed the committee, said that the new law "will create a
new system that will attract farmers who are growing cannabis illegally”.
High-quality cannabis has been illegally grown for more than a century in the
rich soil of the Bekaa valley, in the east of the country, where labour is
cheap. Although the legalisation of cannabis has been on the table for years,
Lebanon began seriously considering it in 2018, when consultants McKinsey & Co
confirmed it could benefit Lebanon economically.
Former economy minister Raed Khoury embraced the idea, boasting that cannabis
could become a $1 billion (Dh3.67bn) industry. Lebanon has been struggling with
its worst financial crisis in history and defaulted for the first time on its
foreign debt in early March.
A special regulatory authority working directly under the prime minister will
supervise the distribution of licences to the private sector, although it is
expected to take at least a year to set up. Farmers still face prosecution for
growing cannabis illegally until then.
A local official from Brital, a town in the Bekaa where significant amounts of
cannabis are grown, told The National that he was not convinced by the
effectiveness of the new law.
“This project does not meet our aspirations. On the contrary, it helps to
corrupt society,” said Mukhtar Ahmad Mohamed Tleiss.
“The problem is that … property owners own unregistered lands,” he said. “These
lands have been inherited from our forefathers during the era of the French and
the Turks.”
In many remote rural areas of Lebanon, particularly those close to the Syrian
border, private property has never been formerly delineated by the state since
its independence in 1943.
Though locals have informal ways of marking ownership, it would be difficult for
farmers to enter a state supervised system of cannabis production for this
reason, argued Mr Tleiss.
The state already has little control on the Bekaa region, he highlighted. “The
government disengaged, and everything is in chaos now, especially amid the
famine and hunger.”
Though Lebanese security forces used to fight drug cultivation and burn crops,
they stopped when security issues spiked with the beginning of the Syrian civil
war in 2011. Regaining control after nearly a decade of absence could be
difficult, especially as local dealers could offer higher prices than the state,
said Mr Tleiss.Farmers have little trust in the state, which has tried to
introduce alternative crops such as sunflowers, cumin and saffron over the past
decades, but did not follow up with the necessary infrastructural support or
compensations.
Hassan Makhlouf, a professor at Lebanese University who researches drug
trafficking in Lebanon, agreed with Mr Tleiss.
“There are no strong state institutions in the Bekaa. Many people are protected
[by political parties],” he said.
He warned that legal buyers would try to offer lower prices than those given by
drug dealers, encouraging a parallel market. “Private buyers must pay market
price to encourage socio-economic development in the Bekaa region,” he said.
Producing cannabis, which does not need much care, is profitable for farmers,
who can make between US$10 to $12,000 per hectare per year, according to Mr
Makhlouf’s calculations. This is an important sum in the region, where there are
few employment opportunities.
Currently, cannabis production injects about $500 million a year into the local
economy through traders and farmers, said Mr Makhlouf. Most of the profits –
around $2 billion – go to international traffickers.
There is also a more important sticking point: the new law only legalises
cannabis that contains less than one per cent of the psychoactive compound
tetrahydrocannabinol, or THC.
Lebanese cannabis contains up to 18 per cent THC, meaning that genetically
modified plants and seeds would have to be imported to conform to the new
standards necessary for medicinal use, said Mr Makhlouf, who opposes the idea.
The risk is that farmers might mix plants because the new variety would look
exactly like the old one, argued Mr Makhlouf. “The leaf’s shape, size and smell
are exactly the same. We would need hundreds of experts to check that the right
type of cannabis is being used, driving costs up,” he said. Instead of focusing
on medicinal and industrial use, the state should export local cannabis to
countries that have legalised its recreational consumption in the Americas and
Europe and produce oil from the plant for medicinal use. This could generate
billions of dollars for the state each year. If managed well and according to
these guidelines, cannabis could become Lebanon’s “green gold,” said Mr
Makhlouf.
Hezbollah suffers blow to funding from Iran amid pandemic
Thomas Harding/The National/April 22/2020
توماس هاردنك: في ظل جائحة الكورونا حزب الله يعاني من شح التمول الإيراني
Terror group set to lose large chunk of income from Iran but sophisticated
European financing operations continue. But the group’s financing has become so
sophisticated that it can rely on significant income from activities in Europe
through fundraising that includes fake orphanages.
There are now renewed calls for more European governments to proscribe both
Hezbollah’s political and military wings as terrorist organisations to clamp
down on the funding.
The blow to funding has emerged in a paper on Hezbollah's finances by Dr Matthew
Levitt, a former FBI analyst.
The huge drop in oil prices, US President Donald Trump's "maximum pressure"
campaign and sanctions on Iran has meant that funding could be cut by $280
million (Dh1.02 billion) from an estimated annual $700m.
Dr Levitt, speaking to an online seminar hosted by the Royal United Services
Institute, said that on three previous occasions Tehran has “very suddenly cut
back its financing for Hezbollah” by 40 per cent, according to Israeli
intelligence.
“I should imagine it’s happening again,” he said.
Sanctions and a need to focus on internal domestic issues, including the
Covid-19 crisis that has infected 86,000 Iranians, has probably forced Iran to
cut funding.
But Dr Levitt, of the Washington Institute, warned: “This has led Hezbollah to
have its own source of income so that if Iranian income had to shrink a bit, it
would be OK.”
In the paper he outlines how the organisation has made extensive provisions to
continue funding from the Shiite diaspora.
“The group's independent fundraising, conducted alongside its generous subsidies
from Iran, are also intended to guarantee the group's future independence
through diversified funding no matter what happens to Iran,” Dr Levitt wrote.
“That is, Hezbollah likely wants to ensure that even in the event that Iran were
to ever strike a ‘grand bargain’ with the West, the group would continue to be
able to exist and function on its own.
“Hezbollah funds are spent primarily on furthering the group's overall agenda of
establishing a Shia entity in Lebanon and radicalising Muslims against the West.
"To that end, the majority of its funds finance social welfare and political
activities that finance terror in a more indirect fashion."
Dr Levitt told the audience that the terrorists had been able to “find a gap in
the seams of European law enforcement” and had discovered it was a “fairly
comfortable place” in which to raise funds.
This was partly due to a political decision by areas of Europe not to proscribe
both wings of Hezbollah.
This has allowed fund-raising in "legitimate" areas such as orphanages.
And people with dual nationalities, as well as criminal gangs, were being used
to open companies that launder cash, move weapons and aircraft equipment, or
raise funds.
Dr Levitt concluded by urging countries such as Germany to designate the whole
of Hezbollah as a terrorist groups.
Hanin Ghaddar on Weakening Hezbollah's Control of Lebanon
Marilyn Stern/Middle East Forum Radio/April 22/2020
https://www.meforum.org/60721/ghaddar-weakening-hezbollah-control-of-lebanon
Hanin Ghaddar, the inaugural Friedmann Visiting Fellow at the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, spoke to Middle East Forum Radio host
Gregg Roman on April 15 about Lebanon's Iranian-backed Hezbollah regime.
The eruption of anti-government protests in Lebanon last October marked "the
first time where three main Shia cities in Lebanon (Tyre, Nabatieh, and Baalbek)
participated in a national revolution," said Ghaddar. Animated by anger over the
country's economic collapse and widespread corruption within its Iranian-backed
coalition government, the street protests led to the resignation of Lebanon's
beleaguered pro-Western prime minister, Saad Hariri. Rejecting protestor demands
for a reform-minded, non-partisan figure to head the new government, the Shia
Islamist Hezbollah movement instead engineered the appointment of a cabinet
dominated by the pro-Iranian March 8 bloc, with no representation for the
pro-Western March 14 bloc. The continuing demonstrations were met by violence,
but Hezbollah could not subdue them through brute force – it took the spread of
coronavirus to achieve this, temporarily.
Hanin Ghaddar
Lebanon, which experienced a civil war from the mid-70s through the late 80s,
followed by Syrian domination until the Cedar Revolution in 2005, has seen
Hezbollah assume greater and greater political power in the face of weakened
Lebanese institutions and opposing forces. Having achieved near-absolute control
of the government for the first time, however, Hezbollah faces severe
challenges. Reeling from the collapse of local currency and deteriorating living
conditions even before the pandemic, much of Lebanon's population is now on the
brink of starvation due to skyrocketing unemployment. International donors are
unwilling to bail out the government unless it makes reforms that Hezbollah
"cannot tolerate," according to Ghaddar, because its allies depend on the spoils
of corruption.
Moreover, because Iran is unable to send funds as a result of US sanctions,
Hezbollah is "incapable of providing its own [Shia] constituency with jobs and
basic needs" as it has done in the past. Its core base of political support is
slipping. Ghaddar noted that there was a demonstration last week in Hay al-Salloum,
a poor southern suburb of Beirut within Hezbollah's stronghold of Dahiyeh.
Hezbollah is "incapable of providing its own [Shia] constituency with jobs and
basic needs."
The public is well aware that Hezbollah bears responsibility for the spread of
the virus in Lebanon, which was fueled by thousands of its members and
supporters traveling to and from Iran. Hiding the thousands of cases erupting
within the Shia community to avoid blame, Hezbollah's response to the spread has
been to publicize a strategic "health emergency plan," but without the resources
and equipment to support it.
Ghaddar anticipates that any easing of social distancing constraints will
trigger a second wave of protests, "bigger, more vicious [and] angrier," by
"hungry people in the streets who have nothing left to lose," cutting across all
segments of the poor sections in Lebanon. "[W]hen it comes to hunger ...
politics will not be important anymore."
The next wave of protests will be "bigger, more vicious [and] angrier."
Ghaddar urged the international community to press Hezbollah to yield the reins
of power to a government capable of enacting reforms. The most credible figure
to lead such a government is former UN ambassador Nawaf Salam, a favorite of the
protestors. Vetoed by the political class, however, he would need to be
supported by the international community to have "power, leverage, and
authority." Ghaddar sees the introduction of a new electoral law followed by
"early elections as a second step" as the way forward for any real change to
occur.
While urging Washington to put pressure on Lebanon, Ghaddar cautioned against
proposals to terminate U.S. aid for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) until
Hezbollah ends its domination of the government. Instead, this aid should be
"restructured and conditioned heavily" to bolster anti-Hezbollah segments of the
LAF and weaken pro-Hezbollah segments. "It's a small country and everybody knows
everybody," she added, so "it's not difficult to figure out" which are which.
Ghaddar described the military as more "nuanced" than Lebanon's other security
institutions, so pressure applied through "appointments and restructuring" can
more easily undermine Hezbollah's influence.
*Marilyn Stern is the producer of Middle East Forum Radio.
Kawtharani… Hezbollah’s Iraq File Maestro
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 Apri/2020
The name of Hezbollah power broker Muhammad Kawtharani had gained attention even
before the assassination of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force
commander Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad. Since Soleimani’s assassination,
Kawtharani had gained traction in Iraqi politics. Washington offered a $10
million reward for information on Kawtharani, whom it says has taken over part
of the role of Soleimani. Washington charged last week that Kawtharani had
“taken over some of the political coordination of Iran-aligned paramilitary
groups” formerly organized by Soleimani. When a US drone strike in January
killed Soleimani and others in a small convoy outside Baghdad airport, the
little-known but powerful official from Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah movement
was initially rumored to have died alongside him. It was quickly confirmed that
Kawtharani, who has long spearheaded Hezbollah’s Iraq policy, was not among
those killed in the attack.“In that role, he was like a copy of Soleimani,” a
senior Iraqi official who met with Kawtharani several times told AFP. Washington
considers that Kawtharani “facilitates the activities of groups working outside
the control of the Iraqi government to violently suppress demonstrators” or
“attack foreign diplomatic missions”, and participates in “training, financing,
and providing political-logistical support to Iraqi Shiite rebel groups.”
After the US administration’s decision to sanction Kawtharani and offer a reward
for information about him, there was news in several local media outlets about
the presence of Kawtharani in Baghdad, noting that he was conducting
negotiations on the new government in the Green Zone, but it could not be
confirmed. Born in Iraq in the late 1950s, Kawtharani studied in the holy shrine
city of Najaf and is married to an Iraqi woman with whom he has four children.
“Kawtharani was appointed to head Hezbollah’s Iraq file in 2003 and has reported
directly to its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah,” said a source close to
Hezbollah’s senior ranks. Washington had first sanctioned Kawtharani as a
“terrorist” in 2013 for providing training, funding, political, and logistical
support to Iraqi Shiite insurgent groups. Iraqi political expert Hisham al-Hashemi
said Kawtharani wore multiple hats.
“He’s the conductor in the Shiite loyalist orchestra,” said Hashemi, referring
to the collection of Iraqi Shiite parties that see Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei as their main reference.
A new Soleimani? US zeroes in on shadowy Hezbollah power
broker in Iraq
Ali Choukeir/The Times Of Israel/April 22/2020
Washington offers $10 million reward for information on Muhammad Kawtharani,
whom it charges has taken over part of the role of assassinated Quds Force
commander Qassem Soleimani
BAGHDAD (AFP) — Months after the United States killed a top Iranian general in
Baghdad, it has offered millions for any details on the mysterious man filling
his boots — Hezbollah power broker Muhammad Kawtharani.
Washington charged last week that Kawtharani had “taken over some of the
political coordination of Iran-aligned paramilitary groups” formerly organized
by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani.
In fact, when a US drone strike in January killed Soleimani and others in a
small convoy outside the Baghdad airport, the little-known but powerful official
from Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah movement was initially rumored to have died
alongside him.
It was quickly confirmed that Kawtharani, who has long spearheaded Hezbollah’s
Iraq policy, was not among those killed in the attack that brought arch enemies
Tehran and Washington to the brink of war.
But rumors of his demise only proved his place among the shadowy pro-Iran
brokers steering politics in Iraq, the oil-rich but poverty-stricken country
torn by unrest since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled dictator Saddam
Hussein.
Hezbollah supporters hold pictures of slain Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
General Qassem Soleimani during a ceremony marking the anniversary of the
assassination of Hezbollah leaders, Abbas al-Moussawi, Ragheb Harb and Imad
Mughniyeh and the end of a 40-day Muslim mourning period for Soleimani, in
Beirut, Lebanon, February 16, 2020. Keen to curb Iran’s influence in Iraq, the
United States last week announced the reward of up to $10 million for any
details on Kawtharani’s activities or associates. The State Department accused
him of inheriting part of Soleimani’s role coordinating among pro-Tehran
factions that have attacked foreign diplomatic missions and “engaged in
wide-spread organised criminal activity.”
The conductor
Washington had first sanctioned Kawtharani as a “terrorist” in 2013 for
providing “training, funding, political, and logistical support to Iraqi Shi’a
insurgent groups.”Born in Iraq in the late 1950s, Kawtharani studied in the holy
shrine city of Najaf and is married to an Iraqi woman with whom he has four
children.
Little is known about his early political work, but his rise to prominence began
following the US-led invasion. “Kawtharani was appointed to head Hezbollah’s
Iraq file in 2003 and has reported directly to its secretary general, Hassan
Nasrallah,” said a source close to Hezbollah’s senior ranks.
In that role, the slender sheikh traveled frequently between Baghdad and Beirut
to negotiate with Iraqi figures, particularly during politically turbulent times
like government formation and elections. He was often in the Prime Minister’s
Guesthouse, an ornate resort in Baghdad hosting officials and foreign
dignitaries, in his traditional white turban and black robe. “In that role, he
was like a copy of Soleimani,” a senior Iraqi official who met with him several
times told AFP, referring to the Iranian general’s infamous shuttle diplomacy.
Kawtharani fluently speaks Iraqi dialect, which differs markedly from Lebanese
Arabic.
“He’s got a lot of experience and is the only foreigner, after Soleimani, to
know the Iraqi political scene inside out,” another Hezbollah source said. Iraqi
political expert Hisham al-Hashemi said Kawtharani wore multiple hats. “He’s the
conductor in the Shiite loyalist orchestra,” said Hashemi, referring to the
collection of Iraqi Shiite parties that see Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
as their main reference. As such, he painstakingly builds consensus among Iraq’s
varying Shiite political and armed factions — but he has also worked on bringing
Iraq’s Sunnis on board with their traditional Shiite rivals.
A growing profile
Following the US strike that killed Soleimani and top Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi
al-Muhandis, Kawtharani saw his portfolio balloon further to include
coordination with Kurdish parties. “He became responsible for all the political
factions,” said Hashemi.
At the same time, he crafted ties between Iraq and Lebanon, where Hezbollah has
strained under financial pressure from US sanctions. “Kawtharani held sway over
Iraqi politicians — so much so that he asked for millions of dollars from Iraq
last year to solve Lebanon’s financial crisis,” a diplomatic source told AFP.
The request was made outside the formal state-to-state channels and it was
unclear if it was ever processed. And while a second Iraqi official confirmed
Kawtharani made the request, a source close to the sheikh in Beirut denied the
overture. The US’s renewed spotlight on Kawtharani was worrying, another source
close to him said. “Seeking information about him now may be an introduction to
a possible attempt at his arrest, or his assassination,” the source said. When
approached by AFP regarding Kawtharani, numerous Iraqi and Lebanese sources
declined to comment on his activities, hinting at fears their information would
be used by the US to target him.Given the backlash the US faced internationally
following its assassination of Soleimani and Muhandis — both key officials in
their respective countries — the US may target someone with a relatively lower
profile.
“Assassinating the new Quds Force chief Ismail Qaani isn’t among Washington’s
options right now. That’s why they turned to Kawtharani. He’s a party official
but not a government one,” the source said.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
April 22-23/2020
Pope at General Audience: This 50th Earth Day, We Must Renew Sacred Respect for
the Earth
Zenit/April 22/2020
Appeals for Ecological Conversion through Concrete Actions, Each in Our Small
Way
“In today’s celebration of Earth Day,” the Pope says, “we are called to renew
our sense of sacred respect for the earth, for it is not just our home but also
God’s home.
Doing so, he underscored, “should make us all the more aware that we stand on
holy ground!”
Pope Francis made this appeal during his General Audience this morning, April
22, 2020, streamed from inside the Library of the Apostolic Vatican Palace.
Recalling that today marks the 50th anniversary of Earth Day, the Pontiff
dedicated his catechesis to caring for the earth.
Noting this is an occasion for renewing our commitment to love and care for our
common home and for the weaker members of our human family, the Pontiff observed
that “the tragic coronavirus pandemic has taught us, we can overcome global
challenges only by showing solidarity with one another and embracing the most
vulnerable in our midst.”
Francis noted that his Encyclical on the environment Laudato Si’ deals precisely
with this “Care for our Common Home,” underscoring: “We must grow in our
awareness of care for our common home.”
The Pontiff decried that we have failed to care for the earth, and failed to
care for our brothers and sisters.
“We have sinned against the earth, against our neighbours, and ultimately
against the Creator, the benevolent Father who provides for everyone, and
desires us to live in communion and flourish together.”
To emphasize the gravity of this, Francis departed from his text to ask: “And
how does the earth react?”
“There is a Spanish saying that is very clear,” he noted, “it says: ‘God
forgives always; we men forgive sometimes; the earth never forgives’. The earth
never forgives: if we have despoiled the earth, the response will be very bad.”
Underscoring our individual responsibility, and how we ought to work to restore
harmony between humanity and the environment, Francis called for “an ecological
conversion that can find expression in concrete actions.”
“As a single and interdependent family, we require a common plan in order to
avert the threats to our common home,” he said.
Francis reminded that we can each contribute in our own small way.
“In this Easter season of renewal,” Pope Francis encouraged, “let us pledge to
love and esteem the beautiful gift of the earth, our common home, and to care
for all members of our human family.”
Below is the Vatican-provided English translation of the Pope’s address this
morning:
Dear brothers and sisters, good morning!
Today we celebrate the fiftieth Earth Day. This is an occasion for renewing our
commitment to love and care for our common home and for the weaker members of
our human family. As the tragic coronavirus pandemic has taught us, we can
overcome global challenges only by showing solidarity with one another and
embracing the most vulnerable in our midst. The Encyclical Letter Laudato Si’
deals precisely with this “Care for our Common Home”. Today, let us reflect
together a little on that responsibility which characterises “our earthly
sojourn” (Laudato Si’, 160). We must grow in our awareness of care for our
common home.
We are fashioned from the earth, and fruit of the earth sustains our life. But,
as the book of Genesis reminds us, we are not simply “earthly”; we also bear
within us the breath of life that comes from God (cf. Gen 2:4-7). Thus we live
in this common home as one human family in biodiversity with God’s other
creatures. As imago Dei, image of God, we are called to have care and respect
for all creatures, and to offer love and compassion to our brothers and sisters,
especially the most vulnerable among us, in imitation of God’s love for us,
manifested in his Son Jesus, who made Himself man to share this situation with
us and to save us.
Because of our selfishness we have failed in our responsibility to be guardians
and stewards of the earth. “We need only take a frank look at the facts to see
that our common home is falling into serious disrepair” (ibid., 61). We have
polluted and we have despoiled it, endangering our very lives. For this reason,
various international and local movements have sprung up in order to appeal to
our consciences. I deeply appreciate these initiatives; still it will be
necessary for our children to take to the streets to teach us the obvious: we
have no future if we destroy the very environment that sustains us.
We have failed to care for the earth, our garden-home; we have failed to care
for our brothers and sisters. We have sinned against the earth, against our
neighbours, and ultimately against the Creator, the benevolent Father who
provides for everyone, and desires us to live in communion and flourish
together. And how does the earth react? There is a Spanish saying that is very
clear, in this; it says: “God forgives always; we men forgive sometimes; the
earth never forgives”. The earth never forgives: if we have despoiled the earth,
the response will be very bad.
How can we restore a harmonious relationship with the earth and with the rest of
humanity? A harmonious relationship… Very often we lose our view of harmony:
harmony is the work of the Holy Spirit. In the common home, on earth, too; also
in our relationship with people, with our neighbour, with the poor, how can we
restore this harmony? We need a new way of looking at our common home. Let us be
clear: it is not a storehouse of resources for us to exploit. For us believers,
the natural world is the “Gospel of Creation”: it expresses God’s creative power
in fashioning human life and bringing the world and all it contains into
existence, in order to sustain humanity. As the biblical account of creation
concludes: “God saw all that he had made, and it was very good” (Gen 1:31). We
we see these natural tragedies that are the earth’s response to our
mistreatment, I think: “If I ask the Lord now what He thinks, I don’t think He
will tell me something very good”. We are the ones who have ruined the work of
the Lord!
In today’s celebration of Earth Day, we are called to renew our sense of sacred
respect for the earth, for it is not just our home but also God’s home. This
should make us all the more aware that we stand on holy ground!
Dear brothers and sisters, “let us awaken our God-given aesthetic and
contemplative sense” (Post-Synodal Apostolic Exhortation Querida Amazonia, 56).
The prophetic gift of contemplation is something that we can learn especially
from indigenous peoples. They teach us that we cannot heal the earth unless we
love and respect it. They have that wisdom of “living well”, not in the sense of
having a good time, no, but of living in harmony with the earth. They call this
harmony “good living”.
At the same time, we need an ecological conversion that can find expression in
concrete actions. As a single and interdependent family, we require a common
plan in order to avert the threats to our common home. “Interdependence obliges
us to think of one world with a common plan” (Laudato Si’, 164). We are aware of
the importance of cooperation as an international community for the protection
of our common home. I urge those in positions of leadership to guide the
preparations for two important international Conferences: COP15 on Biodiversity
in Kunming, China, and COP26 on Climate Change in Glasgow, United Kingdom. These
two meetings are very important.
I would like to support concerted action also on the national and local levels.
It will help if people at all levels of society come together to create a
popular movement “from below”. The Earth Day we are celebrating today was itself
born in precisely this way. We can each contribute in our own small way. “We
need not think that these efforts are going to change the world. They benefit
society, often unbeknown to us, for they call forth a goodness which, albeit
unseen, inevitably tends to spread” (Laudato Si’, 212).
In this Easter season of renewal, let us pledge to love and esteem the beautiful
gift of the earth, our common home, and to care for all members of our human
family. Like the brothers and sisters that we are, let us together implore our
heavenly Father: “Send forth your Spirit, O Lord, and renew the face of the
earth” (cf. Ps 104:30).
© Libreria Editrice Vatican
WHO Says Coronavirus 'Will be with Us for a Long Time'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 22/2020
Most countries are still in the early stages of dealing with the new coronavirus
pandemic, the World Health Organization said Wednesday, adding that most people
on the planet remain susceptible to COVID-19.
"Make no mistake: we have a long way to go. This virus will be with us for a
long time," WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a virtual press
conference.
Diab Says Govt. in the Dark on BDL Decisions, to Speak
Friday
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 22/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced Wednesday that Central Bank Governor Riad
Salameh is not coordinating with the government when taking key decisions that
have an impact on the dollar exchange rate and the financial situation. “As for
Salameh's decision yesterday, we had no prior knowledge of it and the government
was not informed of it. Banque du Liban is not coordinating with the executive
authority over the resolutions it is issuing and I will speak and have a stance
after Friday's cabinet session,” Diab told reporters after parliament's
legislative session at the UNESCO Palace theater. “There should be better
coordination between the central bank governor and the government and we will
voice firm stances during and after Friday's cabinet session,” he added. Noting
that “the political attack on the government is expected,” Diab hope it will not
affect “social and food security.”
“The government has only been in power for 70 days since winning the vote of
confidence and since then we have faced 70 disasters,” he lamented. The prime
minister also noted that the government did not finish its economic plan this
week due to parliament's legislative session, promising that it will be
finalized next week. Salameh had on Tuesday issued a memo asking banks to allow
depositors with foreign currency accounts exceeding $3,000 in value to withdraw
their savings in Lebanese pounds at the "market rate," likely to signify 2,600
pounds to the dollar. He had issued a similar memo in recent weeks related to
accounts containing less than $3,000 each. Salameh said he issued the memo “out
of keenness on the public interest amid the current extraordinary circumstances
that the country is going through,” noting that the resolution is valid for six
months. But critics have warned that such measures will have a detrimental
impact on the value of the Lebanese pound.
U.S. Govt. Experts Warn against Virus Drug
Combo Promoted by Trump
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 22/2020
A U.S. government expert panel has formally recommended against using a drug
combination promoted by President Donald Trump to fight the coronavirus, because
of its potential harmful impact on the heart. The National Institutes of
Health's COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines warned doctors not to use the malaria
drug hydroxychloroquine in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin outside
of clinical trials. Taken together, the medicines were "associated with QTc
prolongation in patients with COVID-19," the panel said. The QTc is a measure of
how fast the heart is electrically recharging for its next beat and slowing it
down too much increases the risk of blackouts, seizures and cardiac arrest. The
drug combination has been promoted by Trump, who tweeted last month that it had
"a real chance to be one of the biggest game-changers in the history of
medicine." As for using hydroxychloroquine on its own, the panel, which
comprises leading doctors from around the country, said there was not enough
evidence either way. It said the same of the investigational antiviral drug
remdesivir which has shown early promise against the virus. A US government
funded analysis of how American military veterans fared on hydroxychloroquine
posted on a medical preprint site on Tuesday found the drug had no benefit
against COVID-19 over standard care, and was in fact associated with more
deaths. Hydroxychloroquine and a related compound chloroquine have been used for
decades to treat malaria, as well as the autoimmune disorders lupus and
rheumatoid arthritis. They have received significant attention during the novel
coronavirus pandemic and have been shown in lab settings to block the virus from
entering cells and prevent it from replicating. But "in vitro" promise often
fails to translate into "in vivo" success in the pharmaceutical world. The
correct answer can only be determined through very large, randomized clinical
trials that assign patients to receive either the drug under investigation or a
placebo. Several of these are underway, including notably in the United States,
Europe, Canada and the United Kingdom.
UN Rights Chief Slams Iran over Execution of Young Offenders
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 22/2020
UN Human Rights Commissioner Michelle Bachelet on Wednesday slammed Iran for
reportedly executing two juvenile offenders in four days and urged Tehran to
call an immediate halt to such killings.
Shayan Saeedpour was 17 when he was alleged to have committed murder in 2015. He
was reported to have been executed on Tuesday, the UN said. Majid Esmailzadeh,
reportedly executed on Saturday, was convicted of a murder allegedly committed
when he was under 18. "The executions of these two child offenders are
absolutely prohibited under international human rights law," Bachelet said in a
statement. "The imposition of the death penalty for crimes committed by people
below the age of 18 at the time of the offence is strictly prohibited." The
former Chilean president said that despite repeated interventions from her
office, the sentencing and execution of child offenders was still going on in
Iran. "This is both regrettable and, given the clear illegality of these
actions, reprehensible," she said. "I repeat my call on Iranian authorities to
honour its international human rights obligations, immediately halt all
executions of juvenile offenders and commute all such death sentences." Bachelet
also condemned the execution of a third juvenile offender, Danial Zeinolabedini,
which was confirmed on April 2. He had been transferred to a new jail following
a riot in a prison on March 28 in protest at conditions and the failure of the
authorities to temporarily release detainees amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Saeedpour had escaped from prison during March 27 protests over the new
coronavirus pandemic. Iran is among the world's hardest-hit countries in the
COVID-19 pandemic, with 5,297 reported deaths. It has temporarily released some
100,000 prisoners, or around 40 percent of its entire prison population, in
several stages since March to reduce crowding. Bachelet said the executions of
the young offenders who were allegedly involved in the coronavirus protests
"raises grave concerns about the possibility of expedited executions of other
death-row prisoners" involved in those protests. Amnesty International said
Tuesday that the execution of Saeedpour was "vengeful and cruel". "The use of
the death penalty against Shayan -- a child with a long history of mental
illness -- was strictly prohibited," said Diana Eltahawy, Amnesty's deputy
regional director for the Middle East. Amnesty claimed there were at least 90
juvenile offenders on death row in Iran.
Iran’s Guard says it launched satellite amid
US tensions
AMIR VAHDAT and JON GAMBRELL/AP/April 22/2020
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it put the Islamic
Republic’s first military satellite into orbit, dramatically unveiling what
experts described as a secret space program with a surprise launch Wednesday
that came amid wider tensions with the United States.
There was no immediate independent confirmation of the launch of the satellite,
which the Guard called “Noor,” or light. The U.S. State Department and Israeli
officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment while the Pentagon
said it “will continue to closely monitor Iran’s pursuit of viable space launch
technology.”However, such a launch immediately raised concerns among experts on
whether the technology used could help Iran develop intercontinental ballistic
missiles. Already, Iran has abandoned all the limitation of its tattered nuclear
deal with world powers that President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America
from in 2018. Trump’s decision set off a monthslong series of escalating attacks
that culminated in a U.S. drone strike in January that killed a top Iranian
general in Iraq, followed by Tehran launching ballistic missiles at American
soldiers in Iraq. As the world grapples with the coronavirus pandemic and
historically low oil prices, the missile launch may signal a new willingness to
take risks by Iran. “This raises a lot of red flags,” said Fabian Hinz, a
researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the
Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California. “Now that
you have the maximum pressure campaign, Iran doesn’t have that much to lose
anymore.” On its official website, the Guard said the satellite successfully
reached an orbit of 425 kilometers (264 miles) above the Earth’s surface. The
Guard called it the first military satellite ever launched by Tehran.
The three-stage satellite launch took off from Iran’s Central Desert, the Guard
said, without elaborating. Hinz said based on state media images, the launch
appeared to have happened at a previously unnamed Guard base near Shahroud,
Iran, some 330 kilometers (205 miles) northeast of Tehran. The base is in Semnan
province, which hosts the Imam Khomeini Spaceport from which Iran’s civilian
space program operates.The paramilitary force said it used a Ghased, or
“Messenger,” satellite carrier to put the device into space, a previously
unheard-of system. It described the system as using both liquid and solid fuel.
Iran can export coronavirus testing kits: President Rouhani
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday 22 April 2020
Iran can export coronavirus testing kits to other countries, President Hassan
Rouhani said on Wednesday, contrary to claims of US sanctions preventing the
country from accessing testing kits. The Islamic Republic claims there is a
shortage of coronavirus testing kits in the country due to US sanctions. Most
recently, health ministry officials said that US sanctions prevented Iran from
importing coronavirus testing kits from South Korea. President Rouhani
contradicted this claim on Wednesday, saying Iran has enough coronavirus testing
kits to export to other countries.
“At this moment, we are able to export coronavirus testing kits despite high
internal demands,” Rouhani said. “Not only are our internal needs for
disinfectants and health supplies met, we can even export some of these supplies
to the countries that need them,” he said. Rouhani said he hopes Iran will also
be able to export face masks in the near future. Iran has rejected US help
against coronavirus on several occasions and instead launched a campaign calling
for the sanctions against the Islamic Republic to be lifted, claiming they
hinder Iran’s access to medicine and medical supplies amid the coronavirus
pandemic.
The US refused to ease sanctions against Iran, pointing out that humanitarian
goods such as medicines are exempt from sanctions. Given this, the Iranian
opposition has accused the Islamic Republic of exploiting the coronavirus
pandemic to lobby for sanctions relief.
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who Rouhani credited for the campaign
against US sanctions, tweeted on Sunday that Iran will be exporting ventilators
“in a few months.” Zarif’s tweet was seen as accepting the failure of the
Iranian foreign ministry’s campaign against US sanctions.
Iran is the epicenter of coronavirus in the Middle East, with the government
reporting 5,391 deaths and 85,996 cases as of Wednesday.
Rights Group: 'Pitiful Sanitary, Hygiene Conditions' in
Iranian Jails
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 April, 2020
There is controversy over the magnitude of the novel coronavirus outbreak in
Iran, which according to official figures has left almost 5,300 people dead. The
uncertainty is even greater over the effects of COVID-19 within Iran's
overcrowded prisons, estimated to hold a quarter of a million people.
This comes as activists and supporters of political prisoners are sounding the
alarm over the risk that the disease has already penetrated deep into the
Iranian prison system, even as officials insist the outbreak is beginning to
slow. The anxiety over the virus became so acute in some prisons that, according
to Amnesty International, inmates rioted in at least eight sites across Iran,
sparking a crackdown by the security forces that left 36 prisoners dead. The
prison riots were "among the most significant of the last years and show the
great concerns of those detained," Katia Roux of Amnesty International France
told AFP, expressing concern about the fate of hundreds of others who were
wounded in the unrest. She complained of "pitiful sanitary and hygiene
conditions" in Iranian jails, which lacked ventilation and access to water
sources.
"The authorities do not allow access to appropriate care: no tests and no
quarantine of people who get sick," she added. For its part, Iran claims it has
released around 100,000 inmates, including 1,000 foreigners, to ease the
pressure on the prison system during the outbreak. However, dual nationals and
prominent detainees regarded by the international community as prisoners of
conscience have been kept behind bars, despite the risk of infection. Some
well-known foreign detainees have been allowed to go free. Roland Marchal, a
French researcher arrested in June 2019, returned to France last month. Nazanin
Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a dual British-Iranian citizen, was allowed leave on a
temporary furlough. But most prisoners of conscience and dual and foreign
nationals remain imprisoned, United Nations special rapporteurs warned in a
statement last week, AFP reported. "Some are at great risk from COVID-19 due to
their age or underlying health conditions," the statement said. The list of dual
national and political detainees who remain in Iranian jails is grimly long,
including Fariba Adelkhah, another academic with French-Iranian nationality who
was detained at the same time as Marchal.
Another hearing in her trial on national security charges took place on Sunday.
"The fears are real, given the seriousness of the health situation in the
country; Fariba is in a cell with several other people," said Jean-Francois
Bayart, a professor at the Graduate Institute of International and Development
Studies (IHEID) in Geneva and a member of Adelkhah's support committee. He noted
that the number of female prisoners had recently decreased, and that masks and
sanitary gels were available. Meanwhile, Tehran denies holding political
prisoners and insists that everything has been done to ensure the well-being of
inmates during the virus outbreak. The impact of the virus in Iran remains a
matter of debate -- according to official figures over 5,000 people have died.
Trump issues stern warning to Iran after naval incident in
Gulf
Thomas Seibert/The Arab Weekly/April 22/2020
“I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all
Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea,” Trump tweeted.
ISTANBUL - The threat of direct military confrontation between the United States
and Iran rose rapidly on Wednesday as US President Donald Trump warned Tehran
over the harassment of US warships in the Arabian Gulf while Tehran was boasting
it had put its first military satellite into space despite US sanctions and the
coronavirus pandemic. Trump issued his April 22 warning in an apparent response
to a recent incident when eleven vessels from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC) came dangerously close to US warships in the Gulf. At one point,
the Iranian vessels came within metres of the US Coast Guard cutter Maui. “I
have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all
Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea,” Trump tweeted.
It was not immediately clear what Trump’s orders to the navy entailed exactly.
The president is under pressure at home by critics who say he mishandled his
country’s response to the coronavirus crisis. He has lashed out against China
and opposition politicians before.
Whatever Trump's motives, an announcement by a US president that his forces have
been told to sink IRGC speed boats is bound to drive up tensions in an already
volatile situation.
In a first Iranian reaction to Trump’s tweet, a spokesman for Iran’s armed
forces said the US should concentrate on protecting its military personnel from
coronavirus, according to the ISNA news agency.
The Revolutionary Guard issued its own warning against the American military in
the Gulf on April 19.
“They should be assured that the Revolutionary Guard's navy and the powerful
armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran see the dangerous actions of
foreigners in the region as a threat to national security and its red line and
any error in calculation on their part will receive a decisive response,” the
Guard said.
The US has deployed powerful navy and air force units in the Gulf region to
support allies like Saudi Arabia against possible Iranian aggression and to
guard the international oil trade.
Shortly before Trump took to Twitter, the IRGC announced it had successfully
launched Iran’s first military satellite. The United States charges Iran’s
satellite programme is a cover for its development of missiles.
Iran repeatedly tried and failed to launch satellites in the past, but this time
the Guard said the satellite dubbed the Noor — meaning “light” in Persian — was
successfully shot into an orbit 425 kilometres above the earth. The rocket
carrying the satellite was named Qassed, meaning “messenger," in what appears to
be the first time Iran has used a launcher of this type.
The launch immediately raised concerns among experts on whether the technology
used could help Iran develop intercontinental ballistic missiles. On April 21,
Iran said it had extended the range of its naval missiles to 700 kilometres.
The Revolutionary Guard sought propaganda value in the announcement of the
launch by timing it to coincide with the 41st anniversary of the creation of the
IRGC under former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. It released a
photograph showing Iranian General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the IRGC's
"aerospace division" posing at the launch site of the military satellite.
Some political figures in the US pointed to Tehran’s satellite announcement to
call for even tougher measures against Tehran. Trump says his “maximum pressure”
strategy against Iran is designed to force the leadership of the Islamic
Republic to accept stricter limits for the country’s nuclear programme and for
Iran’s missile projects. John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser,
said Iran's launch of the military satellite “is proof we are still not applying
enough pressure, [that] deterrence has not been restored, & [that] coronavirus
is not slowing down the ayatollahs.”
Writing on Twitter, Bolton said Iran's goal remained to develop intercontinental
missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons. “They cannot be trusted,” he added
in reference to the Iranians. Tensions between the two countries soared earlier
this year after the US killed Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force,
Iran's armed expeditionary force abroad, in a drone strike in Iraq. Iran
retaliated on January 8 with a rocket attack on Iraq’s Ain al-Asad base where US
forces were stationed. No US troops were killed but more than 100 were later
diagnosed with traumatic brain injury.
The leadership in Tehran has proclaimed in recent weeks that it will not change
its policies in the region under pressure of US sanctions or because of the
coronavirus pandemic. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted on April 19
that Iran would “not take advice from ANY American politician.”
*Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly contributor in Istanbul.
Pompeo warns Iran, comments on combating coronavirus, oil
market stability and China
Arab News/April 22/2020
RIYADH: US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday blasted Iran for its
behavior during the coronavirus pandemic.
He was speaking after President Donald Trump said he had ordered the American
military to attack and destroy any Iranian vessel that harasses US Navy ships.
Pompeo’s comments on Wednesday came in a wide-ranging telephonic roundtable with
seven selected journalists from around the world. “While they (Iran) are telling
the world they are broke and don’t have any money, they continue to underwrite
the butcherous activities of the Assad regime,” he said in response to a
question from Arab News.
“They say they don’t have any money to feed their people or provide medicine,
but they continue to launch missiles or send satellites into orbit.”Iran came
under fire on Wednesday for attempting to launch a satellite, and after its
foreign minister met Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus this week. At the
same, Iran has been hit by one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the region,
which is widely believed to be far more deadly than the government is revealing.
Attacking the poor “prioritization of the regime,” Pompeo said Washington’s
“maximum pressure campaign” would “use economic and diplomatic components … to
build up an international coalition to convince the Iranian regime to change its
behavior.”Last week, US Navy ships were circled by a number of small fast boats
from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in international waters in
the northern Arabian Gulf.
Responding to a question about challenging Tehran in international waters,
Pompeo said Washington will continue to “do everything we need to do to make
sure that our forces are safe and secure.”He added: “The president’s statement
this morning made clear that we won’t tolerate putting our soldiers, airmen,
sailors or marines at risk. We’re going to defend ourselves against those ships
that violated international waters.”During the roundtable, Pompeo answered
questions relating to efforts to combat coronavirus, the US position toward the
World Health Organization (WHO), Iran and China, as well as reports that his
country is considering a halt of oil imports from the world’s biggest producers.
Pompeo said the economic harm of the COVID-19 crisis has reached “nearly every
country in the world,” but stressed that the US is prepared to help support the
energy market.
Arab News asked him for a comment on reports that Trump is considering halting
imports of Saudi oil due to the impact COVID-19 is having on the energy market.
“I don’t want to get in front of what the president may decide on the energy
markets,” Pompeo said. “We’re seeing a historic decline in demand. Once the
market recovers, we’ll see a rise in demand all across the world for American
crude oil products and Saudi crude oil products. That is what the president is
truly focused on.” He added: “Trump wants to make sure that the American energy
network continues to be in a position that it’s thriving and succeeding when
global demand comes back up. We’re working in the US, and with our partners
across the world, to try and put in place systems for a more stable and rational
set of energy markets.”Pompeo also discussed the global response to the
coronavirus pandemic, and the US decision to halt funding for the WHO over what
he said was its poor response and bias toward China. He also said it is
essential that China give access to laboratories in the city of Wuhan, where the
pandemic started, to make sure the origins of the virus are understood. “You
have to know the nature of the pathway that the virus took in order to save
lives, and that didn’t happen,” Pompeo said. “They (China) were too slow. This
information didn’t get to the world quick enough.”
The US is reported to be looking into whether the outbreak could have leaked
from a laboratory studying pathogens in Wuhan. China said it was passed to
humans at a wet market.
Erdogan Stresses Ongoing Turkish Support for Libya’s Sarraj
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 April, 2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has reiterated his country’s ongoing
support for Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Fayez al-Sarraj.
He said this support will continue until the defeat of “Khalifa Haftar’s
militias,” in reference to the Libyan National Army.
Erdogan discussed the developments in Libya during the ruling Justice and
Development Party’s (AKP) central executive committee meeting, which was held
via video conference on Tuesday. He said his country “will continue to do all
what is necessary to preserve its interests in the Mediterranean region.” The
President described Haftar as a “coupist,” urging the international community to
support Sarraj. The “battlefield gains” made by the “legitimate government” in
Libya “reveals Haftar’s true face,” he stressed. Turkey is the major foreign
supporter for the GNA and its militias, and Haftar accuses it of backing
terrorism in his country. On Friday, it transferred weapons and Syrian
mercenaries to Libya. The unusual aircraft activity forced Turkey's defense
ministry to announce that its vessels and fighter jets will perform drills in
the area. “Itamilradar,” a website that tracks military flights, reported that
three jets were detected as they flew towards western Libya in what was
described as a “major mission”. In a series of tweets, the website said the
aircraft may have been transporting fighters or weapons from Turkey to Libya.
“At least three Boeing KC-135R, one Boeing E-7T and one Lockheed C-130E are in
flight. This one is the only still trackable and it seems in flight to western
Libya,” it revealed. The GNA and Turkey signed in November a security and
military Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to boost military and security
bilateral cooperation. The MoU highlighted military training, counter-terrorism,
and illegal migration. Also Tuesday, Greece announced that its airforce has
intercepted Turkish warplanes on their way to Libya, adding that at least 16
F-16s were heading to the country on Friday.
Pandemic Hotbeds in Syria's Prisons
Damascus - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 April, 2020
The notorious Syrian prisons did not need the coronavirus pandemic to become at
risk of witnessing a humanitarian disaster. For decades, they have been hotbeds
for many dermatology, respiratory and infectious diseases that find a perfect
environment for them to spread and persist in the dark and unsanitary cells,
leaving many prisoners with chronic and incurable illnesses. One example among
many others, was the prisoner who was found stranded on the streets of Damascus
last week suffering from memory loss and in dire health. Had it not been for the
blue stamp on his palm signifying release from prison, nobody would have known
that he was one of those included in the amnesty issued on March 22. The amnesty
issued by Bashar Assad came a week after the Ministry of Interior announced the
suspension of all prison visits for a month as well as all prison activities.
The Ministry also announced that prison facilities will be disinfected. In
parallel, there were health awareness campaigns for both prisoners and prison
guards. New inmates were also tested before being detained and inmates set to be
transferred to other facilities were also tested. The Syrian Committee for
Prisoners received leaked information from central civil prisons such as Adra
Central Prison in Damascus and prisons in Lattakia, Suwayda, Tartus, and Homs
that confirmed that the prisons' authorities kicked off procedures to curb the
spread of the pandemic. The committee pointed out that there is no information
over the situation in military prisons, security branches, and secret cells
where prisoners without a trial are being crowded indefinitely. Given the lack
of statistics on the numbers of prisoners in Syria and the existence of secret
prisons, it is difficult to ascertain the efficacy of the recently declared
amnesty in reducing level of packed cells in prisons, especially since
organizations that monitor the prisoners’ cases only document prisoners of
conscience. However, human rights organizations have pointed out that there have
been more arrests than releases. Furthermore, the government did not reveal any
information to confirm or deny whether the pandemic has reached prisons after
there was some news claiming that a number of detainees in Adra Central Prison
for women showed symptoms of the infection.
PA Says New Israeli Govt. a 'Threat to Stability'
Ramallah - Kifah Zaboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 April, 2020
The Palestinian Authority (PA) described the new Israeli government as a threat
to peace, security, and stability in the Middle East region.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Beny Gantz announced a deal to
form an “emergency” government, ending months of political paralysis. The
power-sharing cabinet includes an agreement to impose Israeli sovereignty on
large areas in the occupied West Bank.
The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth said that the annexation of areas in the
West Bank and the Jordan Valley will not take place without the approval of the
government and the Knesset. It also indicated that the process will be carried
out after consultation with the international community and in agreement with
the US administration.
The plan of US President Donald Trump, dubbed as “deal of the century” is
expected to be implemented first of July. Palestinian Liberation Organization
(PLO) Secretary-General Saeb Erekat warned that any Israeli government coalition
“based on a commitment to annex more occupied Palestinian territory is a threat
to a rules-based world order and peace, security and stability in the Middle
East.” Erekat said the new Israeli government has two options: either pave the
way for a meaningful peace process or further jeopardize any hope for peace.
Erekat warned that the annexation means the end of any possibility for a
negotiated solution. He called upon the international community to hold the new
Israeli government accountable and to demand full implementation of its
obligations under international law and signed agreements. Member of PLO
Executive Committee Hanan Ashrawi said that the Israeli political establishment
has united on the agenda of “permanent colonization and annexation.” Ashrawi
said it is evident that Israeli political parties are unequivocally committed to
aggression and oppression of the Palestinian people with the full support from
the Trump administration, which is intent on implementing its dangerous and
objectionable plan.
Meanwhile, the Foreign Ministry called on the international community to impose
deterrent sanctions on the Israeli occupation state, in response to the
decisions of annexation and apartheid. Both Hamas and Jihad movements said that
the coalition's agreement confirms the growing risks that target the Palestinian
issue. In related news, Israeli occupation authorities asked the Palestinian
security services to evacuate their forces from Palestinian towns on the
outskirts of Jerusalem, and under the control of the occupation municipality.
Security men were seen withdrawing from Kafr Aqab, Semiramis, and Qalandia camp,
following a report by the Israeli Coordination and Liaison Command. Palestinian
security forces set up a checkpoint between these areas and Ramallah to prevent
citizens from entering into the city. Israel Hayom newspaper reported that the
Israeli occupation army canceled financial aid and medical equipment to the
Authority because of “severe incitement” from Palestinian officials against
Israel, and their claim that it was working to spread the virus among the
Palestinians. Israel threatened the PA that it will restrict the movement of the
Palestinian security service and stop all cooperation and aid if the Palestinian
government continued to accuse Tel Aviv of spreading the virus in the West Bank.
Attacker Shot Dead after Stabbing Israeli Policeman
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 April, 2020
An attacker was shot dead Wednesday after he hit an Israeli policeman with his
van at a West Bank checkpoint and then stabbed him with a pair of scissors,
police said. The man “drove his vehicle into the border policeman that was on
duty," police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said in an English-language statement.
He then jumped out of his vehicle and stabbed the police officer with a pair of
scissors, Rosenfeld said. Other officers at the scene opened fire and killed the
attacker, he said. The wounded policeman was taken to hospital but was not in a
life-threatening condition, police said. A picture of the attacker's vehicle
released by police showed a van with Palestinian number plates. The attack took
place between the West Bank settlement of Maale Adumim and the Palestinian
neighborhood of Abu Dis, on the outskirts of Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem.
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COVID-19 and the Economy in Regime-Held Syria
David Adesnik/FDD/April 22/2020
The pandemic has worsened the currency crisis and inflation that have afflicted
Syria since the economy in next-door Lebanon began to collapse last September.
The cash-strapped regime of Bashar-al Assad has almost no ability to cushion
this blow with stimulus spending or other relief measures.
Situation Overview
One year ago, the Syrian pound traded at less than 600 to the dollar, whereas it
now hovers around 1,300. The pound had been stable for three years following the
Russian military intervention that saved the Assad regime, although the currency
never recovered its pre-war value.
While U.S. and EU sanctions cut off much of the regime’s access to hard
currency, Lebanon remained a critical source of supply, thanks to its dollarized
economy. Yet after more than 20 years of pegging its currency to the dollar, the
Lebanese government became so mired in debt that it could no longer maintain the
peg. Banks responded with strict limits on withdrawals, which affected both
Lebanese depositors and the many Syrians who rely on Lebanese banks for both
personal and commercial transactions.
Imports have become progressively more expensive in Syria as the value of the
pound has fallen, since importers must pay for their purchases in hard currency.
The Assad regime sought to ease the pain for consumers by raising government
salaries, pensions, and the minimum wage, but the increases were too small to
make much of a difference.
In mid-March, the regime began to implement mandatory social distancing
measures, including school and business closures, foreign and domestic travel
bans, and a 6pm-to-6am national curfew. The Ministry of Health acknowledges only
42 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including three deaths, yet there are numerous
indications of a systematic cover-up.
After hovering between 1,000 and 1,100 pounds to the dollar since early January,
the exchange rate shot up within days to 1,300 per dollar after social
distancing measures took effect. There are no rigorous measures of inflation,
but local media reported increases of 40 to 75 percent in the price of
groceries. The price of medical goods and sanitizers rose even more sharply.
Lockdowns in neighboring counties have also disrupted the flow of remittances
from Syrians abroad, a major source of hard currency for both private
individuals and the regime, which claims a sizable share of any funds
repatriated through formal channels.
COVID-19 in the Greater Middle East
Country Cases Deaths
Turkey 95,591 2,259
Iran 84,802 5,297
Israel 13,942 184
Saudi Arabia 11,631 109
Pakistan 9,565 201
UAE 7,755 46
Qatar 6,533 9
Egypt 3,490 264
Morocco 3,209 145
Algeria 2,811 392
Kuwait 2,080 11
Bahrain 1,973 7
Iraq 1,602 83
Oman 1,508 8
Afghanistan 1,092 36
Tunisia 884 38
Lebanon 677 21
W. Bank & Gaza 466 4
Jordan 428 7
Somalia 286 8
Sudan 107 12
Libya 51 1
Syria 42 3
Yemen 1 0
Source: JHU Coronavirus Resource Center
Data current as of 4:00 PM, April 21, 2020.
Implications
With the economy already in dire straits, the cost of social distancing measures
is difficult to bear. Business leaders close to the regime are already pushing
for a partial reopening of the economy, and the cabinet has lifted a handful of
restrictions. Yet relaxing too many could bring on precisely the kind of massive
outbreak that would overwhelm the regime’s debilitated health-care system.
The Syrian finance minister announced that the government would spend 100
billion pounds to fight the pandemic, although this only amounts to $75 to $80
million, or about $5 per person. This sum is likely an indication of just how
little the regime has left in reserve, not counting the private wealth that
Assad and his inner circle have stashed away.
Finally, Damascus has escalated its calls for a suspension of U.S. and EU
sanctions on humanitarian grounds. However, the credibility of the regime’s
concern for its citizens is limited, especially following UN reports earlier
this month that confirmed its use of chemical weapons and deliberate bombing of
civilian targets, including hospitals.
What to Watch for
The greatest risk for the Syrian economy is an outbreak like the one in Iran,
where the regime’s initial cover-up contributed to a nationwide epidemic whose
scale made it impossible to deny. While the World Health Organization should be
pressing for greater transparency, its Syrian office defers almost entirely to
the regime, much like other UN aid providers.
An accelerated outbreak could potentially destabilize the regime, yet Assad has
survived extraordinary threats to his grip on power.
*David Adesnik is director of research and a senior fellow at the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on
Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from David and CEFP,
please subscribe HERE. Follow David on Twitter @adesnik. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD
and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute
focusing on national security and foreign policy.
Kim Jong Un’s Health and What Comes Next
David Maxwell/FDD/April 22/2020
Following a South Korean report that Kim Jong Un is suffering complications from
a cardiovascular procedure, U.S. media reported that the North Korean leader may
be in grave danger. If true, the Korean Peninsula may be on the brink of a
radical transformation; at the same time, one should take such reports with a
grain of salt, since they are often mistaken.
Even if the latest news turns out to be a false alarm, the Republic of Korea (ROK)-U.S.
alliance ought to be better prepared for the possibility of a regime collapse in
the North. Unless Kim has designated a successor and prepared the regime for a
transition to new leadership, his death could result in chaos.
Still, the Kim regime is masterful at deception; it may have wanted to create
uncertainty in Washington and Seoul. A spokesman for ROK President Moon Jae-in
said, “We have nothing to confirm regarding recent media reports about the
health problems of Chairman Kim Jong Un.” Likewise, Chinese officials downplayed
the story.
But if Kim is dead, what comes next? His sister Kim Yo-jong is one potential
successor. Her ascent would perpetuate the “Baektu bloodline,” a term for the
hereditary rule of the Kim family. The selection of a close relative may be
necessary to preserve the regime’s legitimacy among the elite and military
leadership, although this is speculative.
The potential for instability stems in part from the absence of a succession
mechanism within either the North Korean constitution or the Workers Party of
Korea. Kim Il Sung, who founded the Pyongyang regime, designated his son Kim
Jong Il as his successor in 1974; Kim Jong Il designated his son Kim Jong Un as
successor in 2010. It is unknown whether Kim Jong Un has designated a successor.
It is possible that he has chosen his sister, given her recent promotion to
alternate Politburo member and the fact she began making official statements in
her name in March. It is unknown whether a woman, even one belonging to the
Baektu bloodline, would be allowed to lead the Kim family regime.
If Kim is dead, analysts should observe the actions of the Organization and
Guidance Department (OGD), the most powerful agency in the regime. It controls
all personnel affairs, promotions, and assignments for the North Korean military
and ruling party; it also provides guidance on every aspect of regime policy,
from military activities to propaganda. The OGD will likely recall the Workers
Party leadership to Pyongyang and sequester it until it reaches a decision on
the regime’s way ahead. The key indicator that a leadership meeting is taking
place will be the movement of Politburo members to Pyongyng. This is how the
process worked in the past, according to reports from defectors who were present
at similar gatherings after the deaths of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il in 1994
and 2011, respectively. In both of those cases, however, the late ruler had
already designated his heir. Without a designee, the meeting could be extremely
long.
Even if a successor emerges from such a gathering, the possibility remains of a
regime collapse, defined as the Kim family regime and Workers Party of Korea
losing the ability to govern the entire North from Pyongyang, combined with a
loss of coherency in the military and the withdrawal of military support for the
regime. To understand the potential scenarios for collapse, Robert Collins’
Seven Stages of Regime Collapse is instructive. Its final three stages will
likely play out if Kim is no longer in power: active resistance against the
central government; the fracturing of the regime; and the formation of new
national leadership.
In the event of a collapse in the coming months, the ROK-U.S. alliance must be
prepared to address the humanitarian disaster that likely will unfold in North
Korea, a challenge further complicated by the coronavirus. South Korea, China,
and Japan (via boat) would have to deal with potential refugee flows on a very
large scale when violence threatens the North Korean people. Units of the North
Korean People’s Army would likely compete for resources and survival, a conflict
that could escalate to widespread civil war.
Since North Korea is a “Guerrilla Dynasty” and “Gulag State” built on the myth
of anti-Japanese partisan warfare, the ROK-U.S. alliance should expect a large
portion of North Korea’s military (which consists of 1.2 million active duty
troops and six million reserves) to resist any and all outside intervention,
including from South Korea. Amid this insurgency, the ROK-U.S. alliance would
have to secure and make safe North Korea’s entire weapons of mass destruction
program: nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons plus stockpiles,
manufacturing facilities, and human infrastructure (scientists and technicians).
The alliance also must prepare for a worst-case scenario involving an attack on
the South, which could result either from miscalculation or from a deliberate
attack aimed at ensuring regime survival. This collection of contingencies could
make the challenges faced by U.S. and coalition troops in Afghanistan and Iraq
pale in comparison.
There are some measures that the ROK-U.S. alliance could take to preempt the
scenarios above. Regrettably, it is too late to implement the information and
influence campaign that should have begun 25 or more years ago to shape the
North Korean environment for the current uncertainty. However, such a campaign
is critical moving forward, and the alliance cannot begin one soon enough. The
fundamental question now is, what South Korean and U.S. leaders will do if they
learn Kim Jong Un is dead? Amid the uncertainty, complexity, and chaos of a
disputed succession, the natural response is to wait and see how the situation
develops. Yet that would be a strategic mistake that cedes the initiative to
China and to internal actors in the North.
Rather, the alliance should quickly reach out to the new leader, whether Kim Yo
Jong or another successor. No one can be sure how a successor will react, but if
the alliance does not engage the new leader, there will be no chance to mitigate
the effects of an unstable succession. South Korea and the United States
together must make the first move to help shape the direction of North Korea and
ensure it does not fall under the domination of China. Most importantly, the
ROK-U.S. alliance must help the emerging North Korean leader to counter the
hardline factions that will persist and challenge any cooperation with
Washington and Seoul.
This does not mean Washington and Seoul should offer unilateral concessions.
Rather, the alliance must communicate that the only way for the emerging
leadership to survive is through denuclearization of the North and cooperation
with the ROK and United States. The allies should convey that this is the only
path that will lead to sanctions relief and the brighter future President Donald
Trump offered. Until the new leadership agrees to cooperate, the current
sanctions and pressure must remain in place.
Amid the complexity, uncertainty, and danger, there is an opportunity for bold
action. The ROK and U.S. leadership must be ready to seize the day while taking
all prudent steps to ensure the security of South Korea and preserve stability
in Northeast Asia.
If the current situation is merely another false alarm or part of a
denial-and-deception effort by the regime, this episode should serve as a
wake-up call. The scramble in Washington and Seoul to deal with a potential
succession clearly justifies more deliberate planning and preparation. As Dr.
Kurt Campbell, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia and
the Pacific, said in 1998, there are only two ways to prepare for instability
and regime collapse in Pyongyang: “To be ill-prepared. Or to be really
ill-prepared.” Washington and its South Korean ally can do better.
*David Maxwell, a 30-year veteran of the U.S. Army and a retired Special Forces
colonel, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD),
where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP).
For more analysis from David and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow David on
Twitter @davidmaxwell161. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a
Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national
security and foreign policy.
China's Communist rulers made the world sick, with help
from, you know, WHO
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/April 22/2020
World Health Organization praised President Xi Jinping while COVID-19 exploded
It now seems unlikely that the virus destroying lives and livelihoods around the
world began in a wildlife-for-supper market in Wuhan. More plausible: That it
began in a laboratory in that same Chinese city.
The evidence that has come to light so far suggests the pathogen was neither
genetically engineered nor released as a bioweapon, but that it got loose by
accident or, more bluntly, due to incompetence. Chinese officials deny that. On
Friday, President Trump confirmed that U.S. intelligence agencies are
investigating.
At least as early as January, China’s rulers must have been aware that they were
dealing with a local epidemic that could become a global pandemic. At that
point, if they’d shared what they knew, and prevented those infected from
traveling abroad, less damage would have been done. How much less? According to
a University of Southampton study, had interventions in China been conducted
just three weeks earlier, transmission of COVID-19 could have been cut by 95
percent.
Instead, China’s rulers lied. On Jan. 14, they claimed the disease was not being
readily transmitted human to human. On Jan. 19, they declared the virus
“controllable” and its spread “preventable.” They silenced those who knew
better, including Chinese doctors, Chinese journalists and even Wuhan’s mayor.
Some were arrested and charged with “fabricating, disseminating and spreading
rumors.” Some have disappeared.
The World Health Organization, a U.N. body funded largely by American taxpayers
(our annual investment is 10 times that of Beijing) echoed such statements and
praised the Chinese government’s response, including the “very rare leadership”
of President Xi Jinping. The WHO resisted recommending restrictions on trade
with or travel to China. Not until March 11 did it declare the coronavirus
outbreak a pandemic.
Perhaps you’ll say that China’s rulers were deceptive because they were
embarrassed, concerned for their country’s image. That’s understandable — which
is not a synonym for forgivable. But there’s a more disturbing possibility.
President Xi knew the disease would seriously weaken China’s economy. He knew
that if he helped other countries, those countries might suffer little or no
damage.
Coronavirus: The West's 9/11 Moment
Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/April 22/2020
Commentators and politicians today worry that the current situation might
trigger a new cold war with China. They fail to understand that, in a similar
but much more far-reaching pattern to the jihadist conflict, China has been
fighting a cold war against the West for decades, while we have refused to
recognise what is going on.... Like 9/11, Covid-19 must now force the West to
wake up and fight back.
For decades, China has been working on its three-pronged strategy: building its
economy and fighting capability, including intelligence, technology, cyber and
space as well as hard military power; developing global influence to exploit
resources and secure control; thrusting back and dividing the US and its
capitalist allies.
China's arms exports are not motivated primarily by revenue generation, but as a
means to impose influence and control, create proxies and challenge the US.
Chinese investment penetrates every corner of the UK, giving unparalleled
influence here as in so many countries. Plans to allow Chinese investment and
technology into our nuclear power programme and 5G network will build
vulnerability into our critical national infrastructure of an order not seen in
any other Western nation. Even the BBC, which receives funding from China, has
produced and promoted a propaganda video supporting Huawei, to the alarm of some
of its own journalists. All this despite MI5's repeated warnings that Chinese
intelligence continues to work against British interests at home and abroad.
China has been fighting a cold war against the West for decades, while we have
refused to recognise what is going on. Like 9/11, Covid-19 must now force the
West to wake up and fight back. Pictured: Chinese President Xi Jinping (center)
oversees the military parade for the 70th anniversary of the establishment of
the People's Republic of China, on October 1, 2019 at Tiananmen Square, Beijing,
China.
The coronavirus pandemic is a 9/11 moment. Al Qaida had been at war with the
West for years before the destruction of the twin towers. But it took that
barbarism to galvanise its largely supine prey into action.
Now we have Covid-19. Unlike 9/11 we have seen no evidence so far that China
deliberately unleashed this virus on the world. There is certainly evidence,
however, that it resulted from the policies of the Chinese Communist Party and
that Beijing's habitually duplicitous and criminally irresponsible actions
allowed it to spread around the globe, leading to tens of thousands of deaths
that could have been avoided.
Commentators and politicians today worry that the current situation might
trigger a new cold war with China. They fail to understand that, in a similar
but much more far-reaching pattern to the jihadist conflict, China has been
fighting a cold war against the West for decades, while we have refused to
recognise what is going on. The reality, in Beijing's book, is that the cold war
between China and the West, which began with the communist seizure of China in
1949, never ended. Despite the Sino-Soviet split and subsequent US-China
rapprochement in the early 1970s, for the Chinese leadership the US was still
the implacable enemy.
Like 9/11, Covid-19 must now force the West to wake up and fight back.
China today is by far the greatest threat to Western values, freedom, economy,
industry, communications and technology. It threatens our very way of life.
China's objective is to push back against the US and become the dominant world
power by 2049, a century after the creation of the People's Republic. Dictator
for life Xi Jinping has no intention of doing this through military conflict.
His war is not fought on the battlefield but in the boardroom, the markets, the
press, universities, cyberspace and in the darkest shadows.
Those who argue China's right to compete with the West in free markets and on a
level playing field seem not to comprehend that Beijing has no free market and
no intention of playing on a level field. The world's leading executioner, China
is an incomparably ruthless dictatorship that tortures, disappears and imprisons
its people at will and controls its massive population through a
techno-surveillance infrastructure that it's busy exporting around the world to
extend its political and economic control to us.
For decades, China has been working on its three-pronged strategy: building its
economy and fighting capability, including intelligence, technology, cyber and
space as well as hard military power; developing global influence to exploit
resources and secure control; thrusting back and dividing the US and its
capitalist allies.
China has built its economy on Western money and at Western expense, by
industrial-scale theft of intellectual property and technology, copyright
violation, illicit data mining, cyberwar, deceit, duplicity, enslavement and
uncompromising state control of industry and commerce. It continues to expand
its already immense influence through a Belt and Road Initiative that marches
across the globe; massive investment in Africa, Asia, Europe, Australasia and
north and south America; and direct aggression in the Pacific including the
South China Sea (where Beijing's artificial island programme has created one of
the greatest ecological disasters in history).
All of this is supported by a multi-million dollar propaganda operation, in
President Xi's words: "to tell China's story well" -- in other words: to advance
the ideology of the CCP everywhere. This includes buying support or silence from
global media outlets, threats and coercion. Just one high profile example of
this influence occurred last year when the US National Basketball Association
was forced to make a grovelling public apology after the Houston Rockets'
general manager tweeted in support of pro-democracy campaigners in Hong Kong.
Although military conflict is not China's preferred strategic instrument,
Beijing has not neglected fighting capabilities, spending an estimated $230
billion annually, second only to the US. Xi has been rebuilding his forces on an
unprecedented scale, with particular emphasis on a naval war with America.
Planned military contingency options also include moves against Taiwan and other
territories it intends to control directly. China has also now become the second
biggest arms seller in the world, including to countries subject to UN sanctions
such as North Korea and Iran. This month, 15 armoured vehicles were delivered to
Nigeria, including VT-4 main battle tanks, already in service with the Royal
Thai Army and, like most of China's defence equipment, incorporating technology
stolen from the West. China's arms exports are not motivated primarily by
revenue generation, but as a means to impose influence and control, create
proxies and challenge the US.
Chinese investment penetrates every corner of the United Kingdom, giving
unparalleled influence here as in so many countries. Plans to allow Chinese
investment and technology into our nuclear power programme and 5G network will
build vulnerability into our critical national infrastructure of an order not
seen in any other Western nation. Even the BBC, which receives funding from
China, has produced and promoted a propaganda video supporting Huawei, to the
alarm of some of its own journalists. All this despite MI5's repeated warnings
that Chinese intelligence continues to work against British interests at home
and abroad.
The Chinese government has spent billions of dollars establishing Confucius
Institutes around the world, mainly at universities. There are over 500
globally, including 29 in the UK and over 70 in the US. Ostensibly aimed at
promoting Chinese culture, these bodies are used to infiltrate universities and
high schools to indoctrinate students in communist ideology, as well as for
espionage activities. More than 100,000 Chinese are studying in the UK. Last
year, MI5 and GCHQ warned universities their research and computer systems are
under threat from Chinese intelligence assets among these students. The Director
of the FBI , Christopher Wray, said recently that China was aggressively
exploiting US academic openness to steal technology, using "campus proxies" and
establishing "institutes on our campuses." More broadly he concluded that "no
country poses a greater threat to the US than Communist China."
A senior CCP official unguardedly admitted the Confucius Institutes are "an
important part of China's overseas propaganda set-up". Increasingly reliant on
foreign funding, Western universities have been pressured by Chinese officials
to censor debate on politically explosive issues such as Hong Kong, Taiwan,
Tibet and Tiananmen Square.
Few in the West fully recognise the threat to our own economies, security and
liberty. Many who do refuse to speak out for four reasons. First, fear of coming
into China's crosshairs, provoking economic harm or character assassination.
Second, fear of accusations of racism, a concern readily exploited by the
Chinese state whose own egregious racism is only too obvious. Third, belief that
our liberal values can change those that oppose us. The hope that Chinese
exposure to free trade, including entry into the WTO in 2001, would have this
effect has proven woefully misguided and served only to strengthen Beijing's
oppressive regime. Fourth, many political leaders, businessmen, academics and
journalists have been bought and paid for by Beijing whether by financial
incentive or blackmail.
How can the West fight back? Although still militarily and economically inferior
to the US, China is a formidable and growing economic power, interwoven with
Western economies to an unprecedented degree. We must begin to divest from and
sanction China, repatriate and use alternative sources of manufacturing and
technology, restrict capital investment there and curb Chinese investment here,
especially in our infrastructure.
We must re-invigorate and develop our own technology, much long abandoned to the
Chinese juggernaut. We must enforce the norms of international trade and act
vigorously to prevent and penalise China's orgy of industrial theft that has
gone largely unchallenged for decades. We must push back globally against
Beijing's imperialism and propaganda wherever it occurs. We must also prepare
for military conflict, with an emphasis on deterring Chinese aggression.
America will have to lead the fightback as it did previously in the cold war,
but success will require Europe and our allies around the world to stand with
them for the long term. This is not a party political issue, but must become a
fundamental element of enduring Western grand strategies. This is the task of
decades and will be high-risk and costly. The alternative is to remain on the
hook and in hock to the Chinese communist state and let future generations
suffer the incalculable consequences of our continued purblind inaction.
*Colonel (ret.) Richard Kemp commanded British forces in Northern Ireland,
Afghanistan, Iraq and the Balkans. He is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at
Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Coronavirus: Belgian Carnage
Drieu Godefridi/Gatestone Institute/April 22/2020
There were no masks, so the government decided to announce that no masks were
needed. This supreme culmination of the ineptitude of the Belgian government
still can be found online on the personal website of Health Minister Maggie De
Block: "Wearing masks to protect yourself from the coronavirus makes little
sense".
No masks, no screening, almost no tests and people left to die in nursing homes
-- that has been Belgium's situation in the middle of the worst pandemic since
the Spanish Influenza of 1918. This Belgian carnage is entirely due to the
tragic incompetence of the Belgian governing "elites" -- and was completely
avoidable.
Beginning in 2015, the Belgian government destroyed the country's entire
"strategic stock" of 63 million protective face-masks, in order to "make room"
for housing refugees. With no masks available when the coronavirus pandemic
spread to Belgium, the government announced that no masks were needed: "Wearing
masks to protect yourself from the coronavirus makes little sense". Pictured:
Police organize a line of customers outside a gardening store in Brussels,
Belgium on April 18, 2020.
It is too soon to make a final assessment on the management of COVID-19 by the
countries of the world, but one thing is sure: Belgium is in the middle of a
great carnage.
It all began in 2015, when the government of Prime Minister Charles Michel
(today's European Council president) decided to destroy Belgium's entire
"strategic stock" of 63 million protective face-masks, including the precious
FFP2 type -- 1,200 pallets carefully stored and guarded by the army in the
Belgrade Barracks, in Namur. Because they were "out of date," said Minister of
Health Maggie De Block, who is still on the job today. "Not at all," said the
main union of the Belgian army, "these masks were incinerated... to 'make room'
for housing refugees." In 2015, Belgium and Europe were overwhelmed by migrants
at the invitation of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and the laws of the EU and
the European Convention on Human Rights made it effectively impossible to reject
them.
The entire strategic stock was thus incinerated, and never replaced -- another
decision of De Block, which, given the regularity of epidemics and pandemics,
amounts to a crime. "To govern is to foresee", said Emile de Girardin.
So, when the coronavirus pandemic spread to Belgium, this unfortunate country
had almost no masks -- zero for the citizens, zero for the police, zero for the
nursing homes, and almost zero for the hospitals.
The pandemic erupted much sooner in Italy than in Belgium. Northern Italy, with
its strong economic links to China through the textile houses and fashion
industry, was the main epicenter of the pandemic in Europe. On January 31, Italy
barred flights from China -- a move unfortunately too late for Italy -- and by
February 21, several Italian towns were already on total lockdown.
Many Belgians have Italian roots, especially in Southern Belgium (Wallonia), and
many more love Italy. So, between February 22 and 23, tens of thousands of
Belgians departed for Italy for the Carnival Break, despite the outbreak --
while the Belgian government stayed mute.
When these people returned from Italy, mainly through the two major Belgian
airports-- Brussels South (Charleroi) and Brussels (Zaventem) -- they were not
screened in any way. In fact, they had been screened on arrival in Italy, but
not when they returned to Belgium. At the time, Minister of Health Maggie De
Block said that checking people's body temperature is useless, and that closing
the border did not make any sense: "A virus does not stop at borders." When Dr.
Marc Wathelet tried to warn the minister of the risks, De Block called him, in a
tweet now deleted, a "drama queen" . It seems the epidemic violently erupted in
Belgium mainly because of the unscreened returnees from Italy.
At the beginning of March, the government of Prime Minister Sophie Wilmès --
from the same center-left Mouvement Réformateur party as her predecessor Charles
Michel -- saw no problem with Belgians attending mass gatherings, such as the
Salon Batibouw (real estate fair), the Foire du Livre (book fair), and of
course, the International Women's Day rally on March 8. By March 8, in Italy,
366 people had already died of the virus.
When Wilmès decided finally to take action, in the form of directives dated
March 23, it was mainly to forbid any initiative in the field of masks and
medication by the private sector: the government had to take the issue into its
own hands.
Unfortunately, these professional politicians and their "experts" have
insufficient experience in the field of international commerce. The first batch
of masks ordered by the Belgian government was never delivered; the masks in the
second batch ordered were very efficient, but only for making coffee, and when a
Belgian entrepreneur took action to order millions of masks to be delivered to
the authorities, he was vilified as a "crook" -- with no evidence -- but, "Hey,
this is an emergency, we don't have time for evidence!"
At the beginning of April, therefore, two months after the pandemic had spread
to Europe, there were still almost no masks in Belgium, even for the medical
professionals confronted daily by the risks, to say nothing of the average
citizen.
There were no masks, so the government decided to announce that no masks were
needed. This supreme culmination of the ineptitude of the Belgian government
still can be found online on the personal website of Health Minister Maggie De
Block: "Wearing masks to protect yourself from the coronavirus makes little
sense".
Without masks, the other imperative to confront the virus is the tests -- even
the World Health Organization (WHO) recognized that. Tests are pretty simple to
develop and the first requirement of an efficient response to any pandemic. The
medical capabilities of Belgium are huge -- hospitals, physicians, public and
private laboratories, and enormous private chemical companies -- and the public
spending in its health sector is one of the highest in the world. Thus, the
Belgian government had the opportunity to make up for its criminal ineptitude
with masks by testing.
Unfortunately, it did just the opposite. Instead, it awarded a de facto monopoly
for these tests to the laboratory of a certain Marc Van Ranst at the Catholic
University of Leuven. There is no conceivable reason for this decision, and the
effect was exactly the same as for the masks: excluding the private sector and
rationing out the tests, which therefore have been cruelly lacking since day
one.
The decision is all the more surprising when one knows that Van Ranst is not
only a physician but also active in politics. An avowed communist and
Israel-hater, he once talked of a "Gazacaust" and was very proud of the word.
That is the man who was crowned "Mr. Tests" for all of Belgium.
When private companies developed new methods of testing, the Belgian government
immediately published a new ruling to forbid them completely throughout the
country, on the pretext that they may not be 100% reliable.
No masks, no screening and almost no tests -- that has been Belgium's situation
in the middle of the worst pandemic since the Spanish Influenza of 1918. It is a
dramatic situation entirely due to the wretched decisions of the Belgian
government. When Wilmès broke the de facto monopoly she had created -- allowing
more tests by private companies such as GSK -- it was far too late.
Unfortunately, that was not the end of this sad story of criminal incompetence.
The main blunder was still to come. Seeing the situation in Italy and Alsace
(France), where some hospitals had been temporarily overwhelmed with coronavirus
patients, the Belgian government took what is probably, in retrospect, its worst
decision since 1945: people infected by the virus in nursing homes had to remain
in nursing homes. Therefore there was no hospitalization for these poor old
people.
Combined with the almost total absence of masks and tests, this directive had
cataclysmic consequences -- deaths, deaths and more deaths. Belgium is now
speaking of not only one but two epidemics: one in the general population and
one in the nursing homes. Tragically, almost 50% of the coronavirus deaths in
Belgium have taken place in nursing homes. Despite the often-heroic efforts of
their staffs, the nursing homes of Belgium, in fact, are now deathtraps. People
dying alone in their rooms are not even allowed to see their families one last
time, to avoid infecting the rest the family -- another idea of the Belgian
government that was affirmed, canceled, and then reaffirmed.
No masks, no tests and nursing homes as deathtraps: one now understands why
Belgium is #1 in the world ranking of coronavirus deaths per capita -- ten times
more than Germany.[1]
This Belgian carnage is entirely due to the tragic incompetence of the Belgian
governing "elites -- and was completely avoidable.
Drieu Godefridi, a classical-liberal Belgian author, is the founder of the
l'Institut Hayek in Brussels. He has a PhD in Philosophy from the Sorbonne in
Paris and also heads investments in European companies.
[1] The ineffable Maggie De Block has announced that she would "recount" the
deaths in the nursing homes, since some people were included in the statistics
when only "suspected" of coronavirus. But many countries have included
"suspected cases" in their statistics-- including the US.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Erdoğan's Turkey Is Not Coming Back
Daniel Pipes/National Interest/April 21/2020
دانيال بيبس: تركيا أردوغان لن تعود
TNI title: "8 Policy Recommendations for Dealing With the 'New' Turkey."
From 2002, when Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AK Party reached power, until about
2016, a debate raged among Turkey-watchers in the United States: Is Ankara still
an ally?
Actually, due to nostalgia, that debate dragged on long after it was obvious
that Turkey no longer was an ally. That issue, happily, is now closed; NATO
membership notwithstanding, nobody seriously makes this claim anymore.
But a new debate has opened up: Is Turkey's hostility a temporary aberration or
the long term new normal? Is it more like Necmettin Erbakan's coming to power in
1996-97 and Mohammed Mursi's in Egypt in 2012-13, or more like the Iranian
Revolution, now in its fifth decade?
Opinion in Washington is divided. Broadly speaking, the president, Defense,
State, and business interests argue for it being an aberration; they expect this
unfortunate interlude to end with a cheery return to the good old days. Congress
and most analysts argue for long-term change; that's my argument here.
To understand the American debate, one needs to go back to those good old days.
The period from Turkey's accession to NATO in 1952 to the key election of 2002
lasted a round 50 years; U.S.-Turkish relations, though not without hitches
(most notably mutual fury over Cyprus in 1964), were simple and good: Washington
led, Ankara followed.
I had the opportunity to spend a week as a guest at the Foreign Ministry in
Ankara in October 1992; my most distinct memory is the paucity of
decision-making. Officials hung out by the fax machine for the Turkish embassy
in Washington to send policy guidance. I exaggerate, but not by much. This
arrangement worked well for both sides for a half-century; Turkey enjoyed
protection from the Soviet Union, the United States could count on a reliable
ally.
Turkey's Foreign Ministry is much busier than it used to be.
Two developments eroded this stability in the 1990s: the Soviet collapse and
mainstream Turkish political parties declining into corruption and incompetence.
Islamists, a minor force since the days of Atatürk, took advantage of these
changes, coming briefly to power in 1996-97. The military shoved them aside
without addressing underlying problems.
Then followed the wild 2002 election. The AK Party came out of nowhere to
benefit from a peculiarity in the Turkish constitution establishing a 10 percent
threshold of the total vote for a party to enter parliament. Only two parties
exceeded the 10 percent minimum that year; the others, literally, won 9, 8, 7,
6, and 5 percent. This oddity permitted the AKP, with one-third of the vote, to
control two-thirds of parliament. The resulting shock devastated the opposition,
which remained demoralized until finally rallying to a victory in Istanbul's
mayor's race in 2019.
As for relations with the United States, the turning point came soon after the
AKP's accession. On Mar. 1, 2003, the Turkish parliament refused to allow
American troops to use Turkish territory as a base for war on Saddam Hussein's
regime in Iraq. However stunning a change after 50 years' stalwart alliance,
American officialdom shrugged off this rejection. President George W. Bush
continued his close relations with Erdoğan, whom he personally helped get over a
judicial ban and become prime minister. Barack Obama called Erdoğan one of his
five favorite foreign leaders. Donald Trump flattered and appeased him.
The consistent friendliness of these three dissimilar presidents demonstrates
the reluctance in the White House to acknowledge the fundamental changes in
Turkey. Likewise, the DoD tried to keep the good old days going, the State
Department conciliated, Boeing and other corporations wanted to keep selling.
In this spirit, the Executive Branch downplays that Turkey is ruled by an
Islamist strongman who controls Turkey's most powerful institutions: the
military, the intelligence services, the police, the judiciary, the banks, the
media, the election boards, the mosques, and the educational system. More:
Erdoğan has developed a private army, SADAT. He cracks down at will on whoever
publicly disagrees with him; for instance, dare to sign a mild petition, you
might be labeled a terrorist and end up in jail. As his popularity has waned, he
has increasingly relied on electoral fraud, jailing opposition leaders and
having his goons attack the offices of rival parties.
Not only are Erdoğan and the AKP entrenched in power but they have molded an
entire generation and are transforming the country. It helps to see Turkey
undergoing a version of Iran's Islamic revolution. We are witnessing in
slow-motion a second Iran in the making, less violent and dramatic, more
sophisticated and potentially more enduring. Using computer terminology,
Khomeini was Islamism 1.0, Erdoğan is 2.0, maybe even 3.0.
A massive shift in Turkish attitudes towards the West in general, the United
States in particular, has followed. In 2000, shortly before Erdoğan came to
office, polls showed slightly over half of Turks favorable to America; this
plummeted to 18 percent during his term. Anti-Americanism is now rampant in
politics, the media, movies, school textbooks, mosque sermons, and beyond.
The hostility has become mutual. Anger over Turkey's purchase of the Russian
S-400 missile system led Congress to exclude it from the F-35 program. After
decades of avoiding a vote on an Armenian genocide resolution out of concern for
Turkish sensibilities, the House in 2019 voted 405 to 11 in favor of it; the
Senate passed the bill by a voice vote.
There is little reason to expect that Americans will find a friendlier reception
in Ankara after Erdoğan goes. Yes, he is sixty-six years old and reputedly
suffers from various illnesses. But candidates bruited as his successor (such as
Süleyman Soylu) adhere closely to his outlook. Further, the other major
political strands in Turkey, the nationalists and leftists, are even more
hostile than Erdoğan's party. With the exception of the Kurdish HDP, all the
other parties sitting in Turkey's parliament; (MHP, CHP Iyi) are more
anti-American than the AKP. They actually accuse Erdoğan of being pro-American.
In conclusion, American policies must not be based on the hope that Turkey will
come back. It is gone, as Iran is gone. Not forever, but for the duration. The
U.S. government needs to prepare long term for a nasty, perhaps a rogue Ankara.
Here are eight policy recommendations, starting with the least consequential, to
deal with the new Turkey:
Fethullah Gülen must not be sent back to Turkey.
1. Complain, condemn, and to some extent take action over a range of foreign
issues such as the Turks supporting ISIS, invading Syria, depriving of Syria and
Iraq of riverine water, mounting an expedition to Libya, and drilling in the
Cypriot exclusive economic zone.
2. Publicly reject the extradition request for Fethullah Gülen, Erdoğan's former
ally and now his mortal political enemy who lives in Pennsylvania.
3. Invite Kurds, Gülenists, opposition parliamentary figures, and others, to
high-level meetings in Washington, to signal support for them.
4. Disengage economically. For example, prohibit the purchase of Turkish
sovereign debt, exclude Turkish energy companies, and issue anti-dumping duties
on steel.
5. Add Turkey to the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA)
as a response to Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system.
6. Remove nuclear weapons from Incirlik, a NATO air base in Turkey. Access to
the base is sometimes restricted. The weapons cannot be loaded on the planes
stationed there. The Turks could seize the weapons.
7. Remove U.S. troops from Turkey.
8. Expel Turkey from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Although NATO
bylaws do not offer a means to oust members, the Vienna Convention on the Law of
Treaties allows a unanimous majority to throw out a rogue state. It's just
conceivable that this can be done. So, let's do it.
*Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of the Middle East
Forum. © 2020 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
How “the Evil Called Barack Obama” Enabled the Genocidal
Slaughter of Nigerian Christians
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/April 21/2020
ريموند إبراهيم: كيف نادى الشيطان براك أوباما...سهل وقوى ومكن ابادة وذبح
المسيحيين في نيجيريا
Not only is Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari behind what several
international observers are calling a “genocide” of Christians in his nation,
but Barack Hussein Obama played a major role in the Muslim president’s rise to
power: these two interconnected accusations are increasingly being made—not by
“xenophobic” Americans but Nigerians themselves, including several leaders and
officials.
Most recently, Femi Fani-Kayode, Nigeria’s former minister of culture and
tourism, wrote in a Facebook post:
What Obama, John Kerry and Hilary Clinton did to Nigeria by funding and
supporting Buhari in the 2015 presidential election and helping Boko Haram in
2014/2015 was sheer wickedness and the blood of all those killed by the Buhari
administration, his Fulani herdsmen and Boko Haram over the last 5 years are on
their hands.
Kerry’s and Clinton’s appeasement of Boko Haram—an Islamic terror organization
notorious for massacring, enslaving, and raping Christians, and bombing and
burning their churches—is apparently what connects them to this “sheer
wickedness.”
For example, after a Nigerian military offensive killed 30 Boko Haram terrorists
in 2013, then secretary of state Kerry “issued a strongly worded statement” to
Buhari’s predecessor, President Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015), a Christian. In
it, Kerry warned Jonathan that “We are … deeply concerned by credible
allegations that Nigerian security forces are committing gross human rights
violations” against the terrorists.
Similarly, during her entire tenure as secretary of state, Clinton repeatedly
refused to designate Boko Haram as a foreign terrorist organization, despite
nonstop pressure from lawmakers, human rights activists, and lobbyists—not to
mention Boko Haram’s increasingly worsening atrocities against Nigerian
Christians.
“Those of you that still love the evil called Barack Obama,” Fani-Kayode added
in his post, “should listen to this short clip and tell me if you still do.” He
was referring to a recent Al Jazeera video interview of Eeben Barlow, a former
lieutenant-colonel of the South African Defence Force and chairman of a private
military company hired in 2015 by Jonathan, when still president, to help defeat
Boko Haram.
“In one month,” Barlow said in the interview, “we took back terrain larger than
Belgium from Boko Haram. We were not allowed to finish because it came at a time
when governments were in the process of changing,” he said in reference to
Nigeria’s 2015 presidential elections. “The incoming president, President Buhari,
was heavily supported by a foreign government, and one of the first missions [of
Buhari] was to terminate our contract.”
On being asked if he could name the “foreign government,” the former
lieutenant-colonel said, “Yes, we were told it was the United States, and they
had actually funded President Buhari’s campaign, and the campaign manager for
President Buhari came from the US. And I am not saying the United States is
bad—I understand foreign interests—but I would have thought that a threat such
as Boko Haram on the integrity of the state of Nigeria ought to be actually a
priority. It wasn’t.”
Fani-Kayode was quick to add in his Facebook post that it would have been the
priority had Obama not been president: “I just thank God for Donald Trump,” the
former minister wrote. “Had he been President of America in 2015 things would
have been very different, Jonathan would have won, Boko Haram would have been
history and the Fulani herdsmen would never have seen the light of day.”
Fani-Kayode and Barlow are not alone in accusing Obama of “heavily supporting”
and “actually funding” a presidential candidate who, since becoming president,
has increasingly turned a blind eye to the worsening slaughter of Christians at
the hands of Muslims—that is, when not actively exacerbating it, including with
jet fighters. In 2018, former president Jonathan himself revealed that,
On March 23, 2015, President Obama himself took the unusual step of releasing a
video message directly to Nigerians all but telling them how to vote… Those who
understood subliminal language deciphered that he was prodding the electorate to
vote for the [Buhari/Muslim-led] opposition to form a new government… The
message was so condescending, it was as if Nigerians did not know what to do and
needed an Obama to direct them.
Between 2011 and 2015, and supposedly because they were angry at having a
Christian president, Boko Haram slaughtered thousands of Christians,
particularly those living in the Muslim majority north, and destroyed countless
churches. In 2015—and thanks to Obama—Nigeria’s Muslims finally got what they
want: a Muslim president in the person of Muhammadu Buhari.
As seen, however, not only did he immediately rescue Boko Haram from imminent
defeat, as former lieutenant-colonel Eeben Barlow has now revealed; but
atrocities against Christians have gotten significantly worse since Buhari
replaced Jonathan—they are now regularly characterized as a “pure
genocide”—particularly at the hands of Muslim Fulani herdsmen, the ethnic tribe
whence Buhari himself happens to hail. Thus according to a March 8, 2020 report
titled, “Nigeria: A Killing Field of Defenseless Christians,”
Available statistics have shown that between 11,500 and 12,000 Christian deaths
were recorded in the past 57 months or since June 2015 when the present central
[Buhari-led] government of Nigeria came on board. Out of this figure, Jihadist
Fulani herdsmen accounted for 7,400 Christian deaths, Boko Haram 4,000 and the
‘Highway Bandits’ 150-200.”
How and why Fulani tribesman have managed to kill nearly twice as many
Christians as the “professional” terrorists of Boku Haram—and exponentially more
Christians than under Jonathan—may be discerned from the following quotes by
various Christian leaders and others:
“They [Fulani] want to strike Christians, and the government does nothing to
stop them, because President Buhari is also of the Fulani ethnic group.”— Bishop
Matthew Ishaya Audu of Lafia, 2018.
“Under President Buhari, the murderous Fulani herdsmen enjoyed unprecedented
protection and favoritism… Rather than arrest and prosecute the Fulani herdsmen,
security forces usually manned by Muslims from the North offer them protection
as they unleash terror with impunity on the Nigerian people.”— Musa Asake, the
General Secretary of the Christian Association of Nigeria, 2018.
Buhari “is openly pursuing an anti-Christian agenda that has resulted in
countless murders of Christians all over the nation and destruction of
vulnerable Christian communities.”— Bosun Emmanuel, the secretary of the
National Christian Elders Forum, 2018.
Buhari “is himself from the jihadists’ Fulani tribe, so what can you expect?” —
Emmanuel Ogebe, Washington DC-based human rights lawyer, in conversation with
me, 2018.
Based on all these developments, statistics and accusations, it seems clear that
the Muslim president is behind the unfolding genocide of Christians in
Nigeria—and Obama helped.
*Raymond Ibrahim, author most recently of Sword and Scimitar, Fourteen Centuries
of War between Islam and the West, is a Shillman fellow at the David Horowitz
Freedom Center, a Judith Rosen Friedman fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a
distinguished senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute.
Worrisome America
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/ April 22/2020
America, after the coronavirus and the economic crisis, is a worrisome country,
and this news is no reason to rejoice. This has nothing to do with the myth of
the "alternative Chinese model" or the other myth of "the death of capitalism."
It is about what some have come to call the "casino capitalism", which has taken
hold of America and culminated an approach that has been growing slowly since
the end of the Cold War.
Let us examine some of the numbers that Bernie Sanders cited in an article
published by The New York Times last Sunday: 40 million live in poverty, 87
million are either uninsured or partially insured and half a million are
homeless. The poor, in America and elsewhere, are the least able to quarantine
and are therefore the most vulnerable. Poor African Americans top the list. Tens
of millions are losing their jobs and many of them lose their health insurance
with it.
Exaggeration is in Sanders’ nature, but, here, many who do not exaggerate agree
with him. He says, rightly, that “the foundations of American society are
failing us” while the shock of the coronavirus and the economic collapse are
forcing us to “rethink the assumptions of our system”.
At the turn of the nineteenth century, de Tocqueville saw that the American
experience differs from European ones in that Americans were born equal, while
Europeans had to struggle for equality. Most Americans were small landowners who
were not drawn to revolutionary ideas, content, as they had been, with the
preservation of their property. Later, industrial capitalism developed without
the misery and brutality that accompanied the British industrial revolution.
This theory of Tocqueville's was often used to explain the weakness that marked
revolutionary movements in America.
This is no longer true.
It is true that the economic crisis is not exclusive to the country and that the
crisis itself may not be a sufficient reason to ring the alarm bells. However,
it is supplemented by other factors that are ripping America’s collective fabric
apart: since the 1980s the "melting pot", which was the source of everything
great about America, began to cool. It has been replaced with what some have
described as a philosophy of ghettoization, which emanates from plurality but
may become obsessed with secession. Since America is a "nation of immigrants",
it comes to resemble a nation of feuding tribes.
Indeed, as the US won the Cold War, criticism of this new state of affairs began
to grow louder. Critics focused on three theatres of conflict: white against
black, men against women and ethnic groups amongst themselves. The moments of
economic detente narrowed differences, especially with the emergence of a black
bourgeoisie and the relatively increased parity between genders in institutions.
However, this tide was met by a stronger current that was reinforced by and
rooted in economic crises: for example, instead of the old demand that blacks be
allowed to attend white schools, demands for schools reserved for blacks
emerged. Rather than demanding equality for women, women's superiority and men's
hostility were emphasized, with some even considering men to be enemies. In
general, instead of "we are like you", the rule became: "We are better than
you."
Partisan life's mobilization also went very far. Recently, three-quarters of
Republicans said they believed what the president says about the coronavirus
pandemic, and 92 percent of Democrats said they did not believe him. The range
of issues on which there is a national consensus has become narrow: the
consensus that emerged after 9/11 was shattered by the Iraq War, and the
consensus that emerged after the 2008 financial crisis soon turned into deep
division over the solution: should the state play a bigger or a smaller role?
The Republicans were radicalized by the crisis as demonstrated by the rise of
the Tea Party.
The critic Robert Hughes, for example, had spoken, in a famous book, about the
prevalence of "a culture of complaint": differences become barriers,
characteristics become identities, the future that is aspired to becomes a
"return" to one’s "roots", and each group has its "roots" and "victims" who had
been victimized by "the white male." America, then, is going from pluralism to
Balkanization.
Then, there is also a crisis of American ideology, so to speak, which goes two
ways: opulence in moments of victory, "success" is glorified and the "nation of
immigrants" is celebrated. During major economic and non-economic crises, the
opposite occurs. The treatment of the Japanese in the United States during World
War II has become a stain. The treatment of Muslims after 9/11 is another stain.
The way Americans dealt with each other was a scandal: the calumny of this
period exceeded that of the Cold War's McCarthyism. Under John Ashcroft, a
religious zealot, the Department of Justice filled the mailboxes with forms
asking their recipients to report any strange behavior on the part of the
neighbors. That day, more than a million weapons were sold. With the coronavirus
pandemic as well, demand for arms has grown.
In general, two of the pillars of the American ideology were shaken: 9/11
undermined the notions of immigration and religious pluralism, and the 2008
financial crisis weakened faith in the "American Dream".
The US is not alone in its neoliberalism, but its neoliberalism finds its symbol
in its current president and his approach; that is, in confronting problems with
self-praise, trivializing institutions' work, negating science, the populism of
his tweets and conjuring up mercurial and contradictory solutions to urgent
problems, leading to loss of many lives. Plans are unlikely, and there is no
model.
Thus, it is the response to the coronavirus pandemic and the emerging economic
situation that decides: either America is renewed, as a place and an idea,
through a reinforcement of confidence in the government, institutions and
science and the expansion of healthcare and other safety nets, or pessimistic
predictions that say that the United States might witness its sun set the way
the Roman Empire will come true.
Opposing an IMF Loan to Iran: Not an Outlier, Not a Barrier
to Aid
Patrick Clawson/The Washington Institute/April 22/2020
Washington often objects to loans that it deems insufficiently rigorous, but its
blocking attempts usually fail—and Iran has no need for the funds anyway. Much
commentary has been heaped on the Trump administration’s apparent plan to “veto”
a loan to Iran under a new IMF facility intended to help countries deal with the
COVID-19 crisis. To describe this reporting as ill-informed is to be polite.
For one thing, Iran already has immediate access to $2.8 billion in existing
funds from the IMF without drawing up any new loans—$700 million in its “reserve
tranche” and $2.1 billion in Special Drawing Rights. This money is available
without condition, yet Tehran has made no effort to use it during its ongoing
health and economic crises. More important, the regime holds at least $90
billion in foreign exchange reserves, a large portion of which are now
accessible. These factors raise questions about Tehran’s motivations in applying
for the loan.
Furthermore, Iranian authorities and media outlets have focused on whether U.S.
officials will block the loan, implying that if it goes through, it will
represent a defeat for the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign. In
fact, there is no realistic way for Washington to block any such loan brought
before the IMF Executive Board. Despite loose talk of a U.S. veto, that power
applies only to a very specific set of issues detailed in the annex to the IMF’s
Articles of Agreement—namely, issues related to IMF governance, not to
individual loans.
Indeed, the United States has a long history of unsuccessfully objecting to IMF
loans. Each quarter, Treasury officials report to Congress about which loans
they have supported and which they have opposed. Last year, for instance, the
administration opposed loans to the Republic of the Congo in July and to
Mauritania in May, yet both were approved. Going back several years, one finds
no examples in which U.S. opposition has prevailed with the IMF Executive Board.
The U.S. Treasury has an ethos that it is the institution responsible for
keeping the IMF on the straight and narrow by insisting on tough conditionality
and strict economic measures. Accordingly, department officials often oppose IMF
loans they deem economically unjustified, regardless of U.S. relations with the
countries in question. For instance, their objection to the Congo and Mauritania
loans was not based on any desire to place those governments under “maximum
pressure,” but rather to ensure that IMF conditionality on issues such as
structural economic reform was sufficiently rigorous.
In the current case, the IMF insists that conditionality for the new “emergency
financing mechanisms” be minimal. As one IMF official explained in an April 1
background briefing, the only criteria for these coronavirus loans are (1) that
the country be in a position to repay the funds (which Iran clearly is), and (2)
“that the money is formally speaking used to address the underlying source of
the financing needs, so in this case the health crisis.” Elsewhere in the
briefing, officials confirm that no conditions will be put in place to ensure
that governments use the funds in the manner they declare they will.
The U.S. position is that Iran does not meet even the basic criteria given its
history of diverting pharmaceutical and other medical funding to support
terrorism and corruption. For example, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo noted
on March 24, “Regime officials stole over a billion euros intended for medical
supplies, and continue to hoard desperately needed masks, gloves, and other
medical equipment for sale on the black market.” Even if the Trump
administration wanted to support the loan, it could not do so. According to
Section 1621 of the International Financial Institutions Act (22 U.S.C.
262p-4q), “The Secretary of the Treasury shall instruct the United States
executive director of each international financial institution to use the voice
and vote of the United States to oppose any loan or other use of funds” for
countries that the secretary of state has determined are state sponsors of
terrorism. This provision appears to have no waiver authority. Certainly, the
United States has various means of interrupting prospective loans before they
reach the IMF Executive Board, such as persuading the organization’s managing
director not to proceed. Yet the current official in that position, Kristalina
Georgieva, hails from an EU country like all her predecessors, and the major EU
governments have endorsed the idea of giving Iran an emergency loan, so it is
difficult to see U.S. appeals forestalling the process in this case.
To be sure, Tehran has had much difficulty accessing its foreign exchange
reserves for humanitarian trade because of U.S. restrictions on transactions
with the Central Bank of Iran. Yet an IMF loan would have exactly zero impact on
that issue. What does help on that front is Treasury’s quiet policy change in
March to allow foreign transactions with the Central Bank for the purpose of
countering coronavirus. Exporters are already leaping at this opportunity in
South Korea, where Iran holds many billions of dollars in reserves; the policy
change applies to other key reserve locations as well. Thus, anyone concerned
about getting medical supplies to Iran should be focusing on these newly
accessible reserves rather than IMF loans.
In short, the IMF loan controversy will have no impact on the country’s ability
to purchase humanitarian goods. It is inappropriate for news outlets, EU
governments, or anyone else to claim that blocking the loan will impede Iran’s
access to such goods. The real obstacle lies in Tehran’s failure to use the many
resources it can already access.
*Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and director of research at
The Washington Institute.
Iran’s lucrative crime-terrorism nexus with Venezuela
continues amid coronavirus
Joze Pelayo/Al Arabiya/April 22/2020
Tehran’s global network of militias is once again under scrutiny since the US in
January killed the man responsible for leading Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps’ Quds Force, General Qassem Soleimani.
The oldest and arguably most important of the Iranian-backed non-state militia
groups is Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The proxy has been and remains embedded in Venezuela, aligned and coordinating
with the political establishment in Caracas on criminal activities.
Now is the time for the United States Drug Enforcement Administration to realize
the goal of its over a decade-long initiative, Project Cassandra, which aims to
weaken Hezbollah’s funding from its global crime and drug trafficking networks.
Hezbollah and its affiliates should be designated by the US government as an
International Criminal Network, as they continue to weave their illicit web in
the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
Hezbollah in Venezuela
Hezbollah serves as one of Iran’s most powerful surrogates and has mastered the
art of using the global Lebanese diaspora for their own interests. The group has
evolved from a Lebanese militia into a major player in the Lebanese
government—despite being designated in 2018 as a “top transnational organized
crime threat” by the US attorney general.
Hezbollah works directly with weak and autocratic governments like Venezuela, in
criminal activities such as money laundering from the sales of drugs, weapons
and illicit goods. These activities have become critical to Hezbollah and Iran
in recent months as extensive US sanctions, the oil price war, and the shock
from the coronavirus have weakened the Iranian economy and significantly reduced
the amount of support groups like Hezbollah receive from their Iranian patrons.
Both Iran and Venezuela seem to be aligned in their urgent pursuit to ease US
sanctions. However, despite having severe domestic challenges, COVID-19 has not
stopped the regime in Tehran from providing support to destabilizing militias in
Arab countries and beyond.
Although the United States has attempted to combat these activities, Hezbollah
has extended its operational scope beyond the financing of terrorism and money
laundering. As Iran’s international reach has become more sophisticated,
Hezbollah has increasingly become self-sufficient, using both the international
financial system and Lebanon's political and financial framework.
While US law enforcement efforts have often focused on the tri-border area
between Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, in recent years Venezuela’s Margarita
Island – an economic free-zone and a popular vacation destination, and host to
one of the largest Lebanese communities in Venezuela – has started to make “the
tri-border area look like a kindergarten,” according to Roger F. Noriega, a
former assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs under the
George W. Bush Administration.
Hezbollah’s approach to burrow into Venezuela comes with a quest for cover and
operational support, such as the reported purchase of Venezuelan passports,
visas and identity cards at the Venezuelan embassy in Iraq, paying up to $15,000
“under the complacent glance of the Venezuelan diplomatic authorities,”
according to the PanAm Post.
Project Cassandra Versus the JCPOA
Project Cassandra, launched in 2008, has been the most comprehensive US
government effort thus far to counter Hezbollah funding from illicit sources.
The Drug Enforcement Administration has led the fight to combat Hezbollah’s
developing profile as an international crime syndicate, with an estimated profit
of $1 billion per year, according to some investigators.
During eight years of investigation, including wiretaps, undercover operations
and informants, 30 US and foreign security agencies tracked Hezbollah’s network
and activities, including particularly large cocaine shipments through Latin
America to the United States, Europe, West Africa and the Middle East.
As Project Cassandra officials were preparing prosecutions, arrests, and
sanctions, their efforts were delayed and opposed by others in the US.
government. David Asher, a Pentagon illicit finance analyst who helped oversee
the project, said “this was a policy decision, it was a systematic decision,” in
an interview with American news outlet Politico.
Then-CIA Director John Brennan was primarily focused on combating only the most
extreme elements within Hezbollah. Therefore, President Barack Obama’s
administration declined to designate Hezbollah in general as a “significant
transnational criminal organization,” although the group was already designated
as a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the US Department of State and it and
several individuals in the group were under multiple State and Treasury
Department sanctions.
This cautious approach developed in the context of efforts to secure a nuclear
deal with Iran. According to former Treasury official Katherine Bauer’s
testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, “Under the Obama
administration … these [Hezbollah-related] investigations were tamped down for
fear of rocking the boat with Iran and jeopardizing the nuclear deal.”
Asher said, “The closer we got to the [Iran deal], the more these activities
went away.”
Hezbollah’s Global Crime Network
Some Venezuelans of Arab descent have contributed to Iran’s international
outreach and fundraising in the Western Hemisphere. The key figures in this
network include Tareck Zaidan El Aissami, Ghazi Nasr Al Din, and Fawzi Kanan.
El Aissami, a Venezuelan of Syrian and Lebanese descent, and a former vice
president of Venezuela, has been sanctioned by the Department of the Treasury’s
Office of Foreign Assets Control and is now featured on the United States’
Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s most-wanted list as a specially designated
narcotics trafficker pursuant to the Kingpin Act.
The Kingpin Act is used to block all property, interests in property, financial
transactions, and dealings within the United States and its financial system, as
well as with US persons. El Aissami is reported to have supervised several
operations in which “... he oversaw or partially owned narcotics shipments of
over 1,000 kilograms from Venezuela on multiple occasions.”
El Aissami is also alleged to have provided Hezbollah affiliates with Venezuelan
passports and IDs during his tenure at Venezuela’s Ministry of Interior,
Justice, and Peace.
Additionally, Ghazi Nasr Al Din, a Venezuelan of Lebanese descent who served as
a Venezuelan diplomat in Damascus and Beirut, and facilitated the granting of
visas and passports, raised and laundered money for Hezbollah. Nasr Al Din has
been sanctioned by the Office of Foreign Assets Control and added to the FBI’s
Seeking Information – Terrorism list.
According to the US government, Nasr Al Din met with senior Hezbollah officials
in Lebanon to discuss such activities. Kanan, another Venezuelan of Lebanese
origin, has been similarly sanctioned for using Biblos Travel Agency in
Venezuela for reportedly couriering funds to Lebanon in the aid of Hezbollah.
Iran’s former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, repeatedly visited Venezuela to
try to increase cooperation between the two countries, including the
establishment of a Caracas-Tehran flight by the Venezuelan airline Conviasa with
a layover at a Syrian military base. By March 2019, Iran’s Mahan Air had adopted
this route as a nonstop flight.
In 2018, Mahan was sanctioned by the Office of Foreign Assets Control and banned
by France and Germany for transporting military equipment, Iranian operatives,
and personnel to Syria and providing various services to the IRGC. During a
visit to Venezuela in February 2019, according to sources of Kuwait’s Al
Seyassah, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah offered Maduro support from the
group’s militants living in South America and the protection of security
installations by battle-tested specialists.
Nasrallah added: “This is only a portion of what the party can offer to
Venezuelan President Maduro and the memory of his predecessor, President Hugo
Chavez, in return for the support from the two to Hezbollah and to Iran,
especially in terms of providing the needed funds for the activity of the
party.”
According to the Treasury Department, Hezbollah diverts profits from drug sales
in Europe to exchange houses in Lebanon. Laundered money is returned to the
United States to buy used cars that are then shipped to West Africa for resale
with the profits ultimately transferred to Hezbollah.
On January 31, 2020, Iranian national Bahram Karimi was charged by the US
Department of Justice for his connection in a scheme initiated by the
governments of Iran and Venezuela to launder $115 million through the US
financial system “for the benefit of various Iranian individuals and entities.”
The challenges facing Latin American efforts to counter these networks were
illustrated by the fate of Alberto Nisman, an Argentinian prosecutor. Nisman
spent a decade investigating Iran’s activities in the Western Hemisphere,
including the 1994 Argentine Israelite Mutual Association bombing in Buenos
Aires. Nisman was murdered four days after issuing a formal complaint in 2015,
in addition to a 500-page report in 2013 (along with a US Congressional Research
Service synopsis in 2016) that documented how Iran and Hezbollah had been
working in Latin America for decades.
The report tracked the use of embassies, cultural organizations, and other
institutions as fronts for intelligence operations—an approach that has also
been used by Iran against Kuwait and Bahrain in recent years.
Iran’s State-Crime-Terrorism Nexus with Venezuela
According to senior DEA agent Jack Kelly, former Venezuelan intelligence chief
Hugo Carvajal, who was arrested in Aruba on drug charges, was “the main man
between Venezuela and Iran, the Quds Force, Hezbollah, and the cocaine
trafficking.” Carvajal, who was due to be extradited to the United States from
Spain, went missing in November 2019.
According to the Washington Post, the most recent former head of the Venezuelan
intelligence General Manuel Figuera, who is now living in exile in the United
States, affirmed in June 2019 that he was aware of “... intelligence that
Hezbollah had operations in Caracas, Maracay, and Nueva Esparta, apparently
geared toward illicit business activity to help fund operations in the Middle
East.”
Although US sanctions on Venezuela may limit Hezbollah’s ability to use the
country to launder money and fund its fighters, it will probably remain able to
conduct drug trafficking operations in cooperation with the Venezuelan military,
as the latter also thrives on the potential dividends.
Officials of Venezuela’s interim government led by Juan Guaidó insist that
Hezbollah is highly invested in keeping Maduro in power, and the State
Department has documented meetings between Hezbollah and Maduro officials as
recent as November 2019. Iran’s state-crime-terrorism network presents a
challenge to security and economic stability, especially when it converges with
permissive operating conditions and corruption.
As the US steps up its campaign against drug trafficking, Hezbollah’s
entrenchment within Venezuela’s establishment is a global problem. Iran’s own
neighbors and especially the citizens of Iran, Venezuela, and Lebanon, are the
ones to pay the heaviest price of such a destabilizing network during a global
pandemic.
Project Cassandra’s unrealized goal to designate Hezbollah and its affiliates as
an International Criminal Network under Office of Foreign Assets Control
regulations would allow the United States to “deal with the unusual and
extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of
the United States constituted by the growing threat of significant transnational
criminal organizations.”
As criminal gangs and terrorist organizations continue to exploit the COVID-19
crisis, collaborate, adapt, and form networks - and as these continue to target
the GCC - international cooperation must be intensified to counter this threat.
*Joze Pelayo is a research consultant, and was recently with the Arab Gulf
States Institute (AGSIW) in Washington DC, a think tank dedicated to providing
expert research and analysis of the social, economic, and political dimensions
of the Gulf Arab states.