Dr. Majid Rafizadeh: EU rewarding Iranian aggression by seeking return to nuclear deal/د. مجيد رافيزادا: الإتحاد الأوروبي يكافئ إيران على عدوانيتها بسعيها للعودة إلى الإتفاق النووي/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami: Iran must prove it is serious before Gulf talks can begin/د. محمد السلامي: على إيران أن تثبت جديته قبل أن بدأ أية محادثات مع دول الخليج العربي
*EU rewarding Iranian aggression by seeking return to nuclear deal/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 25/2021 د. مجيد رافيزادا: الإتحاد الأوروبي يكافئ إيران على عدوانيتها بسعيها للعودة إلى الإتفاق النووي
Iran must prove it is serious before Gulf talks can begin/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 254/2021 د. محمد السلامي: على إيران أن تثبت جديته قبل أن بدأ أية محادثات مع دول الخليج العربي
***************** EU rewarding Iranian aggression by seeking return to nuclear deal Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 25/2021 د. مجيد رافيزادا: الإتحاد الأوروبي يكافئ إيران على عدوانيتها بسعيها للعودة إلى الإتفاق النووي
The EU is redoubling its efforts and spending significant political capital to push new US President Joe Biden into immediately returning America to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal with Iran.
The bloc this month reiterated its “strong commitment” to the nuclear deal and urged the US to swiftly rejoin it. It declared in a statement: “The EU reiterates its strong commitment to and continued support for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The JCPOA is a key element of the global nuclear non-proliferation architecture and an achievement of multilateral diplomacy, endorsed unanimously by the UN Security Council through resolution 2231.” It added: “We welcome… Biden’s positive statements on the JCPOA, and look forward to working with the incoming US administration.”
The EU appears more determined than ever to revive the nuclear deal in spite of the fact that French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian last week acknowledged that Tehran is violating the deal and rapidly acquiring nuclear weapons capacity. “This has to stop because Iran and — I say this clearly — is in the process of acquiring nuclear (weapons) capacity,” he was quoted as saying.
At an underground facility, Iran’s theocratic establishment is enriching uranium to 20 percent purity, which is only a relatively short technical step away from weapons-grade level.
Unfortunately, the European leaders are sending the wrong message to Iran: That the regime’s violations and threats are paying off. The Iranian leaders have ratcheted up their threats in recent months in order to get the JCPOA’s EU3 (Germany, the UK and France) and the US back to the nuclear deal as soon as possible. Tehran has threatened that, if US sanctions are not lifted by Feb. 21, it will expel International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors.
The Iranian regime has learned that, the more it threatens to instigate instability and insecurity in the Middle East, the more the EU will double down on its efforts to save the nuclear deal.
The European leaders are sending the wrong message to Iran: That the regime’s violations and threats are paying off.
More fundamentally, the EU wants to see the sanctions on Iran quickly lifted once the Iranian leaders rejoin the nuclear deal. But does the EU not remember how the regime spent its influx of money as a result of the nuclear deal? The billions of dollars of increased revenues were not spent on helping the Iranian people, improving their living standards or promoting peace in the region, even though it was outlined in the nuclear deal’s preamble that all signatories “anticipate that full implementation of this JCPOA will positively contribute to regional and international peace and security.” When the deal was finalized, former US President Barack Obama famously said he was “confident” that it would “meet the national security needs of the United States and our allies.” However, this was not the case. The international community witnessed a greater propensity for Houthi rocket launches at civilian targets in Saudi Arabia, the deployment of Hezbollah foot soldiers in Syria, and constant violence by Iranian-funded militias.
The EU also wants to return to the same nuclear deal that was drafted in 2015. Does the EU not remember the negative consequences of that agreement? One of the consequences was a worsening of relations with Europe’s traditional allies. The Gulf states and Israel were excluded from the negotiations with Iran and this resulted in a flawed deal that failed to recognize their rightful concerns about missile proliferation and the funding of violent proxies within and next door to their territories.
Furthermore, the deal was heavily tilted in favor of the Islamic Republic, as unprecedented concessions were granted to the Iranian regime. For example, the deal paved the way for Iran to legally enrich uranium and spin centrifuges at any level it desires after the expiration of the JCPOA. The sunset clauses, which enshrined that commitment, set a firm expiration date for the restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. The deal’s signatories also helped swiftly lift all four rounds of UN sanctions against Iran — sanctions that had taken decades to put in place. Furthermore, Iran’s military sites were exempt from inspection by the IAEA. And the West helped the Iranian regime rejoin the global financial system with full legitimacy, allowing billions of dollars to flow into the treasury of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its expanding militias across the Middle East.
By these measures alone, the EU must have realized by now that the nuclear deal with Iran, which the bloc is strongly rooting for once again, has demonstrably failed.
Finally, doesn’t the EU recall the crimes that the regime committed on its soil after the nuclear deal and before Trump pulled the US out of the JCPOA? The regime assassinated dissidents on European soil, including Ahmad Mola Nissi — a Dutch citizen of Iranian descent and a critic of the Tehran regime who was gunned down at his front door in November 2017. The Dutch security service publicly acknowledged that it had “strong indications” the Iranian government had commissioned the murder.
In a nutshell, the EU is rewarding Iran for its heightened aggression. The more the regime escalates its threats, the more the EU is increasing its efforts to revive the nuclear deal and lift sanctions.
*-Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Iran must prove it is serious before Gulf talks can begin Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 254/2021 د. محمد السلامي: على إيران أن تثبت جديته قبل أن بدأ أية محادثات مع دول الخليج العربي
Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani last week urged the Gulf states to hold talks with Iran. The senior Qatari official expressed hope that this dialogue would take place, adding in an interview with Bloomberg TV: “We still believe this should happen.”
On Twitter, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif responded to the Qatari official’s proposal, saying: “Iran welcomes my brother (Al-Thani’s) call for inclusive dialogue in our region. As we have consistently emphasized, the solution to our challenges lies in collaboration to jointly form a ‘strong region.’”
Speaking about the same issue on Friday, Zarif told the Iranian state Mehr News Agency: “Our hands have always been extended to the Gulf states.” He added provocatively: “The region now is ours, and its security is in favor of all of us.”
In the same interview, Zarif even claimed that Iran’s regime had presented its own proposal prior to those of other regional states, saying: “Before all these proposals, we have introduced a proposal. The president of the republic last year proposed a ‘Hormuz Peace Endeavor (HOPE).’” He added: “Our readiness for negotiations, therefore, is nothing new. And as I mentioned in my response to the Qatari foreign minister, this issue is a declaration of Iran’s long-term policy.”
Zarif also said, gloatingly, that it should be made clear to some Arabian Gulf states that they have wasted four years because of former US President Donald Trump. He recalled that, when the late emir of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah floated a proposal for negotiations between the Gulf states and Iran, which was accepted by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Gulf states allegedly responded by saying: “We should be patient as Trump has just taken over the US administration.” Zarif said: “These countries have wasted four years… Trump has gone, and we and they are the ones who remain.”
It should be noted here that none of the Gulf states officially responded to the remarks by Zarif. However, given the timing of his statements, two key questions arise: Is Iran serious about interacting, on a strategic rather than a tactical basis, with any genuine proposal to de-escalate the current regional situation? And can Iran reverse its current behavior in the region?
From the onset of the revolutionary regime, it has used brutal military force, as seen in the eight-year Iraq-Iran War (1980-1988). Iran emerged from this war devastated economically, politically and militarily, and in need of time to recoup its strength and overcome the crises it was going through. Hence, the regime opted for a soft approach, using diplomacy and cultural outreach, as well as emphasizing civilizational commonalities during the second term of late President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (1993-1997) and particularly during the tenure of Mohammed Khatami (1997-2005).
This ostensibly peaceful period witnessed one of the most dangerous phases of the Iranian regime’s penetration into the Arab world. Iran took advantage of this period of systematic openness in the region to embed its cells and entrench its presence. It was able to conceal its hostile agenda through promoting civilizational dialogue and staging exhibitions in several Arab and Gulf capitals.
During this phase, Iran also focused on establishing so-called cultural centers in Arab states and launching its operations through them. These centers were directly linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the office of the Supreme Leader. One would have expected them to have been linked to the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or even to Iran’s diplomatic consulates, but they were all bypassed, indicating Iran’s nefarious objectives behind establishing them.
All parties are fed up with Tehran’s PR campaigns, soft power rhetoric, empty diplomacy, and promises.
These centers intensified the regime’s activities regionally and globally, providing handy diplomatic cover for its recruitment, propaganda and indoctrination. This phase also saw Iran cooperating with the US and some Western countries in the invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003. Mohammed Ali Abtahi, Iran’s vice president under Khatami, said clearly: “If it weren’t for Iran, Kabul and Baghdad wouldn’t have been toppled.”
Later in this phase, the Arab street, longing for triumphs, cheered Hezbollah’s so-called victory in the 2006 Lebanese War, which exhausted and destroyed the country. However, Iran, cheered on by some Arabs before its regional role was exposed with the onset of the so-called Arab Spring in 2011, made no real gains through the Lebanese War.
As a result, following the phase of political upheaval in the Arab region, Iran left its soft power approach and returned to its original hard power approach. This involved proxy wars, a dependence on armed Shiite militias in the Arab region, sectarian rhetoric, and playing the Shiite victimhood card. The Iranian regime also activated some of its long-dormant sleeper cells and launched major intelligence activities in the region, especially in the Arabian Gulf.
The past few years have witnessed the dismantling of several Iranian espionage cells in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Yemen, not to mention Iranian support for the Houthi movement in Yemen through the supply of weapons, money and fighters. Also during this phase, Iran intensified its activities in Bahrain and Kuwait.
Despite Iran’s interference, the Gulf states have not adopted a comprehensive negative outlook toward Tehran. This is because they want to establish positive fraternal relations between the two banks of the Arabian Gulf and to ensure peaceful coexistence between Iran and themselves.
While the Arab region’s countries, particularly the Gulf states, do not oppose dialogue with Iran, there is, sadly, distrust between Iran and most of the Gulf states. To build confidence and reach a phase of serious dialogue — rather than a dialogue for its own sake — the Iranian side must take steps on the ground to prove its seriousness with regard to resolving the crises in its geographic neighborhood. Naturally, the Gulf states are cautious, with the phrase “once bitten, twice shy” quite apt for describing their cautiousness at this time.
All parties are fed up with Tehran’s PR campaigns, soft power rhetoric, empty diplomacy, and promises. Instead, neighboring countries want Iran to undertake genuine steps to prove its sincerity in seeking to become a normal state that wants to improve its relations with the region and the world, and in being prepared to abandon its expansionist projects, which have provoked regional sectarian conflicts and terrorism.
Ayatollah Khomeini considered Saudi Arabia to be Iran’s No. 1 enemy, saying: “Even if we abandon Al-Quds, settle differences with the US and reach reconciliation with Saddam Hussein, we will never do this with Saudi Arabia.” Has Iran really abandoned this position? Will Iran dissolve all its militias across the region, from Lebanon in the north to Yemen in the south? Will it pledge not to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries? Will it stop its sectarian mobilization campaigns? What will it do about the attacks on the Saudi diplomatic missions in Tehran and Mashhad? The answer to these questions will indicate Tehran’s seriousness in reaching a settlement with the Arabian Gulf states.
The benefits of reaching an understanding between the Gulf states and Iran are so many that they require a separate article to be detailed.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami
