Iran and the US, Dilemmas of Security Charles Elias Chartouni/January 02/2021 شارل الياس شرتوني: معضلات الأمن الأميركية-الإيرانية
The strategic quandaries in the Persian Gulf are perpetuating at a time when the chances of a generalized confrontation between Iran and the US are increasing by the day.
The pitfalls of the presidential transition in the US, the first commemoration of Qassem Suleimani’s assassination, the resumption of Uranium enrichment in Iran, and the US withdrawal plans from Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia, have altogether created the congenial environment for war between the two States. The hazards of an open military affray cannot be dismissed in a context of strident polarization and political transition, whereas, the chances of eventual political normalization under the incoming administration are still highly tentative, let alone improbable. The insinuations and diplomatic simulations of actors and political observers, insofar as the eventual normalization between the two protagonists, the European and international Community, are still highly hypothetical.
This configuration is still marred by uncertainties, especially whenever it comes to Iran’s integration of the international community, the internalization of its legal standards and civility, and the engaging of a multitrack diplomacy aimed at addressing the militarization dynamics (conventional and nuclear), the geopolitical dilemmas in the Larger Middle East, the questions of Human Rights and the major financial, socio-economic and environmental issues.
The overall examination of Iran’s political plight, ideological narrative and vested interests of its clerical and revolutionary guardians oligarchies, conveys a very sobering message insofar as the plausibility of a normalization scenario.
The dilemmas of international normalization and internal liberalization, Iranian National security, Imperialism and proactive destabilization strategy throughout the Middle East, the delusions of a Counter-World Order, and the compounded fractures of bankrupted economics, societal dislocations and debunked revolutionary myths, largely account for the inability of this regime to question its policies, let alone engage in reforms and open up to the rest of the world.
The self defeating dynamic propelled by the nuclear accord of 2015, was quite instructive about its paradoxes from the very beginning, since this eventual diplomatic platform was instrumentalized to launch a destabilization strategy throughout the Middle East, sustain international criminality and terrorism worldwide, engage in deliberate equivocation in regard to the nuclear policy, give way to large scale repression within Iran and deliberate oversight of Iran’s severe societal and environmental breakdowns.
The intentional prevarication which frames the overall policy course of the Iranian regime, far from being incidental, are typical of a cynical survival strategy, a concealment ethos, and the uncertainties of a decaying dictatorship, there are very few opportunities for a “constructive ambiguity” which promotes diplomacy and conflict resolution.
The need for steady military containment, financial and economic sanctioning and open support of Iranian political oppositions, are for the time being, the suitable platforms of a US working policy towards Iran.
