A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For March 07-08/2020 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon in its 143th Day
Compiled By: Elias Bejjani
March 08/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 07-08/202
The Bleeding Women’s Faith & Hope/Elias Bejjani/March 07/2020
Number of coronavirus patients rises to 28/Perla Kantarjian/Annahar/March 07/2020
Coronavirus: Saudi Arabia tells arrivals from Lebanon, Egypt to self-quarantine/Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/March 07/2020
Hariri Hospital: 28 infected cases in Lebanon, 15 in quarantine
Health Minister to Radio Lebanon: Serious responsibility, practicing caution are the strongest weapons against Corona
Tourism Minister: Pubs, nightclubs to close till March 15th
Abdullah: Lebanon Must Declare Public Health Emergency
Coronavirus, political turmoil, economic collapse won’t stop Beirut’s women marching this Sunday/Carmen Geha/The New Arab/March 07/2020
Baabda Financial, Economic Meeting ‘Supports’ Govt. Decisions
Aoun, Berri Deny Role in Decision to Freeze Assets of 20 Lebanese Banks
Diab Says Lebanon Will Restructure Debt, Seek ‘Fair Negotiations’
Lebanon officials greenlight first debt default/The New Arab & agencies//March 07/2020
Lebanon will default on its debt for the first time ever/Timour Azhari/Al Jazeera/March 07/2020
Lebanon to default for first time in history as PM vows reforms/Georgi Azar/Associated Press/March 07/2020
Lebanon opts to default on $1.2bn Eurobond debt/The National/March 07/2020
Hitti Contacts Tunisian Counterpart, Expresses Solidarity
The Shia vs. the ‘Shia Crescent’/Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/March 08/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 06-07/2020
The Bleeding Women’s Faith & Hope
Elias Bejjani/March 07/2020
(John 6:68): “Lord, to whom would we go? You have the words of eternal life”
Whenever we are in real trouble encountering devastating and harsh conditions either physically or materially, we unconsciously react with sadness, anger, confusion, helplessness and feel abandoned. When in a big mess, we expect our family members and friends to automatically run to our rescue. But in the majority of such difficult situations, we discover with great disappointment that in reality our heartfelt expectations do not unfold as we wish.
What is frustrating and shocking is that very few of our family members and friends would stand beside us during hardships and endeavour to genuinely offer the needed help. Those who have already walked through these rocky life paths and adversities definitely know very well the bitter taste of disappointment. They know exactly the real meaning of the well-know saying, “a friend in need is a friend indeed”.
Sadly our weak human nature is driven by inborn instincts that often make us side with the rich, powerful, healthy and strong over the poor, weak, needy and sick. Those who have no faith in Almighty God find it very difficult to cope in a real mess.
Meanwhile, those whose faith is solid stand up with courage, refuse to give up hope, and call on their Almighty Father for help through praying and worshiping. They know for sure that our Great Father is loving and passionate. He will not abandon any one of us when calling on Him for mercy and help because He said and promised so. Matthew 11/28-30: “Come to me, all you who labor and are heavily burdened, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me, for I am gentle and lowly in heart; and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light.”
One might ask, ‘Why should I pray?’ And, ‘Do I have to ask God for help, can’t He help me without praying to Him?’ The answer is ‘no’. We need to pray and when we do so with faith and confidence God listens and responds (Mark 11/:24): “Therefore I tell you, all things whatever you pray and ask for, believe that you have received them, and you shall have them”
Yes, we have to make the effort and be adamant and persistent. We have to ask and knock in a bid to show our mere submission to Him and He with no doubt shall provide. (Matthew 7/7 & 8): “Ask, and it will be given you. Seek, and you will find. Knock, and it will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives. He who seeks finds. To him who knocks it will be opened”.
On this second Sunday of Lent in our Catholic Church’s Eastern Maronite rite, we cite and recall the miraculous cure of the bleeding woman in Matthew 9/20-22, Mark 5/25-34, and Luke 8/43-48. As we learn from the Holy Gospel, the bleeding woman’s great faith made her believe without a shred of doubt that her twelve years of chronic bleeding would stop immediately if she touched Jesus’ garment. She knew deeply in her heart that Jesus would cure her even without asking him. Her faith cured the bleeding and made her well. Her prayers were heard and responded to.
Luke 8/:43-49: “A woman who had a flow of blood for twelve years, who had spent all her living on physicians, and could not be healed by any, came behind him (Jesus), and touched the fringe of his cloak, and immediately the flow of her blood stopped. Jesus said, “Who touched me?” When all denied it, Peter and those with him said, “Master, the multitudes press and jostle you, and you say, ‘Who touched me?’” 8:46 But Jesus said, “Someone did touch me, for I perceived that power has gone out of me.” When the woman saw that she was not hidden, she came trembling, and falling down before him declared to him in the presence of all the people the reason why she had touched him, and how she was healed immediately. He said to her, “Daughter, cheer up. Your faith has made you well. Go in peace.”
The woman’s faith cured her chronic bleeding and put her back in the society as a normal and acceptable citizen. During that era women with uterus bleeding were looked upon as sinners, defiled and totally banned from entering synagogues for praying. Meanwhile, because of her sickness she was physically unable to be a mother and bear children. Sadly she was socially and religiously abandoned, humiliated and alienated. But her faith and hope empowered her with the needed strength and perseverance and enabled her to cope successfully against all odds.
Hallelujah! Faith can do miracles. Yes indeed. (Luke17/5 & 6): ” The apostles said to the Lord, “Increase our faith.” The Lord said, “If you had faith like a grain of mustard seed, you would tell this sycamore tree, ‘Be uprooted, and be planted in the sea,’ and it would obey you”. How badly do we today need to have a faith like that of this women?
Let us all on this second Lent Sunday pray with solid faith.
Let us ask Almighty God who cured the bleeding women, and who was crucified on the cross to absolve our original sin, that He would endow His Holy graces of peace, tranquility, and love all over the world. And that He would strengthen the faith, patience and hope of all those persecuted, imprisoned, and deprived for courageously witnessing the Gospel’s message and truth.
Number of coronavirus patients rises to 28
Perla Kantarjian/Annahar/March 07/2020
In light of the worrisome reality the coronavirus is creating, many people are misinterpreting the normal flu for the COVID-19.
BEIRUT: On Saturday, the total number of coronavirus-infected patients reached 28 in Lebanon. In its daily coronavirus developments report, the Rafic Hariri University Hospital declared that during the past 24 hours, 156 cases were admitted into the emergency unit. As per the protocol, all the cases underwent the necessary medical examinations, and 13 of them needed to be quarantined in the hospital, while the rest were advised to isolate themselves in their homes. According to the report, 140 cases were subjected to laboratory tests, 6 of which tested positive.
Within the premises of RHUH, there were 22 coronavirus patients. The remaining 6 cases were transferred to the hospital by a team from the Ministry of Public Health. Also, 17 people who were quarantined left RHUH after testing negative on the coronavirus.
In light of the worrisome reality the coronavirus is creating, many people are misinterpreting the normal flu for the COVID-19. For this reason, and to minimize the amount of public distress and confusion, the World Health Organization prepared a list of guidelines as to how to differentiate between the normal flu and the coronavirus:
1- With the normal flu, headaches are light. With the coronavirus, headaches are extreme.
2- With the normal flu, body temperature is mildly high. With the coronavirus, body temperature is extremely high.
3- With the normal flu, the symptoms of nasal congestion and a runny nose are experienced. With the coronavirus, they are not experienced.
4- With the normal flu, constant sneezing is experienced. With the coronavirus, sneezing is rare.
5- With the normal flu, a sore throat and chesty coughs are experienced. With the coronavirus, sore throats are not experienced, and coughs are dry.
6- With the normal flu, periods of body chills are experienced. With the coronavirus, body chills are strongly and constantly felt.
7- With the normal flu, body aches are light. With the coronavirus, body aches are intense.
Coronavirus: Saudi Arabia tells arrivals from Lebanon, Egypt to self-quarantine
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/March 07/2020
Saudi Arabia’s health ministry announced on Saturday that anyone in the Kingdom who has been in Lebanon, Egypt, Italy or South Korea during the last two weeks to quarantine themselves at home for two weeks from the date of their arrival, as part of the country’s efforts to combat the spread of the coronavirus, state news agency reported. The ministry added that any medical practitioner coming back to Saudi Arabia from those four countries should also self-quarantine for two weeks. Follow our latest coverage of the coronavirus here. And if they show any symptoms they should immediately contact the ministry’s coronavirus-dedicated hotline to get the necessary help from the health authorities or go to the nearest hospital. Saudi Arabia had confirmed seven coronavirus cases as of Saturday, all of whom had arrived in the Kingdom through Bahrain or Kuwait or the UAE, originally coming from Iran. Riyadh condemned Iran for allowing the Saudi nationals entry to its territory without stamping their passports.
Measures taken to combat coronavirus
The Kingdom put in place mechanisms in order to combat the spread of the coronavirus:
It urged its citizens who had traveled to Iran recently to declare that to the authorities by end of day March 7, or else face legal action against them according to the Travel Documents Law and its related regulations. It also reiterated that Saudi citizens should not travel to Iran for any reason, stressing that serious legal actions will be taken against those who commit this act going forward. Saudi Arabia announced on March 4 temporarily banning entry of its nationals and residents to Mecca to perform Umrah pilgrimage or to visit the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina. The Kingdom halted on March 2 all exports of medical and laboratory products and equipment used to detect or prevent coronavirus infection via its land, sea and air ports. The health ministry said on March 1 it had prepared 25 hospitals and 8,000 beds to handle any coronavirus cases. The foreign ministry announced on February 27 the temporary suspension of entry for individuals seeking to perform Umrah pilgrimage in Mecca or visiting the Prophet’s Mosque in Madina, as well as tourists traveling from countries where the coronavirus poses a risk as determined by the Kingdom’s health authorities.
Hariri Hospital: 28 infected cases in Lebanon, 15 in quarantine
NNA/March 07/2020
Rafic Hariri University Hospital announced Saturday, in its daily report on the latest developments regarding the emerging Coronavirus, that it had received “during the past 24 hours, 156 cases in the emergency unit designated to receive cases suspected of being infected with the new virus, all of whom were subjected to the necessary medical tests, whereby 13 were admitted into the quarantine section based on the evaluation of the supervising physician, while the rest were asked to maintain home quarantine.” “Laboratory tests were conducted for 140 cases, 134 of which were negative, and 6 positive,” the Hospital report indicated. “Today, 17 patients who were present in the quarantine section were released from the hospital after the results of their laboratory examinations turned out negative, and it was recommended that they stay under home quarantine after providing them with all the necessary instructions and means of protection in accordance with the directives of the World Health Organization,” the report added. “To-date, there are 15 cases in the quarantine section. As for the positive cases inside the hospital, they have reached 22, and a team from the Ministry of Public Health is securing the transfer of the remaining cases to the hospital” the report went on, noting that “the number of new cases diagnosed with the emerging Coronavirus in Lebanese territories has reached 28.””The condition of those infected with the new Coronavirus is stable, except for 3 cases who are in critical condition, all of whom are receiving the necessary medical care and attention in the isolation unit,” the Hospital report concluded.
Health Minister to Radio Lebanon: Serious responsibility, practicing caution are the strongest weapons against Corona
NNA/March 07/2020
Public Health Minister, Hamad Hassan, stressed in an interview with “Radio Lebanon” today, that serious responsibility on part of citizens, in strictly abiding by the Ministry’s guidelines and practicing caution, remains the most effective means in combatting the emerging Coronavirus.
“We can, in Lebanon, overcome the major health challenge represented by the increasing number of new Coronavirus infections when we deal with the epidemic seriously and responsibly, and when we strictly apply the recommendations issued by the Ministry of Public Health that call for maintaining hygiene and personal protection, avoiding crowded places and taking the necessary examination immediately upon the appearance of any symptoms of corona infection,” he said. Hassan explained that he adopted in his press conference held at Bouar Hospital, “an open and transparent method in order to send a clear message to citizens and residents in Lebanon, in terms of the need to assume responsibility, because seriousness and caution in this matter are the most effective weapons in the face of the new virus,” Hassan added. However, he regretted the attempt of some to “criticize and blame, harnessing social media to broadcast negative, harmful and subversive impressions,” which lead to no benefit. “Everyone is required to deal with matters with absolute seriousness, and to avoid negligence and belittling the size of the crisis,” he underlined. Hassan, thus, called on society activists and the media, to “be on the same wavelength as the Ministry of Public Health in order to serve the community, spread awareness, and motivate it to strictly implement preventive measures against the Corona infection, instead of creating pointless panic.”Hassan also stressed that he does not engage in politics whatsoever at his Ministry, reiterating that “there are no geographical limits for any virus, otherwise the Corona would not have emerged from China and traveled between countries without deterrence,” noting that “we are still in the stage of limited spread in Lebanon.”He added: “Lebanon is applying the decisions of the World Health Organization because it is the right body that monitors what is happening at the health level in the world, and determines whether the border crossings should be closed or replaced by tightening procedures, as is currently the case.”In this connection, the Health Minister disclosed that he is working on “restructuring the loan provided by the World Bank to the Ministry of Public Health, amounting to $150 million, so that part of it would be used to manage the crisis related to fighting the emerging Corona epidemic with high responsibility and transparency.”
Tourism Minister: Pubs, nightclubs to close till March 15th
NNA/March 07/2020
Minister of Tourism, Ramzi Musharrafieh, issued a circular on Saturday, requesting owners and investors in pubs, nightclubs and dance places on all Lebanese territories to close as of today, until Sunday, March 15, 2020. Musharrafieh urged all touristic establishments to “abide by the preventive measures issued by the Ministry of Public Health, in order to reduce the spread of the Coronavirus.”He also instructed the Tourism Police and supervisory bodies to ensure that the issued circular is properly implemented.
Abdullah: Lebanon Must Declare Public Health Emergency
Naharnet/March 07/2020
Progressive Socialist Party MP Bilal Abdullah voiced calls on Saturday to declare a “public health emergency” after the health minister’s announcement that the COVID-19 virus is no longer in the containment phase. “Now that the health minister declared the virus is no longer in containment phase, it has become necessary to declare public health emergency,” said Abdullah in a tweet. He said the declaration marshals “army troops to monitor the terminals at the airport, port and borders,” in response to the situation, and “establishing isolation and treatment centers in the governorates, enhancing human and material epidemiological surveillance, and ensuring free laboratory testing of the virus.”
Coronavirus, political turmoil, economic collapse won’t stop Beirut’s women marching this Sunday
Carmen Geha/The New Arab/March 07/2020
“This is just what we needed, a corona outbreak,” is something you will hear many times a day in Beirut.
The year 2020 really does feel like an apocalypse. Beirut is right at the center of geopolitical turmoil, economic collapse, political disaster, and now a public health hazard. In the midst of it all, we will march this Sunday, 8 March to mark International Women’s Day.
This march has become the highlight of the year for many of us, a time for feminist collectives and women’s groups from across the country to unite and make their voices heard. This year it feels not only ominous, but also imperative that we walk side by side. Today more than ever, everything and everyone seems out to get us – as though all we really have is each other. I know women all over the world suffer shared grievances in both their private and public lives. But in Beirut, here is what we are up against:
Killer politics and killer policies
The Lebanese political system feeds on killing its women. From the moment we are born until the day we die, discriminatory politics and policies govern our lives. Until very recently a rapist could escape punishment by proposing to marry his victim.
Marital rape and child marriage are very much legal. Divorce and custody are regulated by 16 different religious courts, and while they are different depending on your sect, they all undeniably favour the men.
Last week a heartbreaking video circulated of a mother wailing behind barbed wire looking over her daughter’s grave. The father, who had sole custody of the child, would not allow her mother near her daughter, even after her death.
Every day it feels like we need to put on a suit of armour just to be able to get to work on time, and be seen
Lebanese politics and policies make it impossible for women to reach public office. Elections, so clientelistic and sectarian, favour men as the representatives and protectors of the sect. Sect-based representation thrives through partnership with religious institutions, where women are completely absent from any decision making about their own lives. The nationwide revolution that started on 17 October could not get politicians to budge and change their ways of corruption and self-serving politics. No cries, however incensed, could get them to bring a competent government that can address the mounting layers of economic corruption and environmental disaster.
Abusive workplaces
Our currency is faltering and we are defaulting on paying our international debt. Hundreds of companies have shut down and hundreds of employers are paying half salaries. With schools closed, Lebanese mothers are more stressed and under pressure than before.
Like everywhere in the world, we have a gender wage gap. This is true in all sectors, and also in my own institution of higher education, according to research conducted by our own faculty. But unlike other places in the world, sexual harassment is not criminalised. In fact, it is rampant.
All the women I’ve interviewed for my own research on women and politics say that they were harassed within their political parties, and that this was the norm. In the economy, we make up only 23 percent of the formal employed labour force. Precarious working conditions and informal jobs are widespread, and probably account for most of working women’s employment.
Constant threat of violence
On top of all this, we live under the constant threat of violence. And I don’t mean getting raped on the streets, or being mugged at gunpoint – although that too happens. I am talking about a culture of widespread and daily violence that occurs because of easily accessible weapons, and the constant fanning of sectarian tensions. As the new year dawned, Hezbollah vowed to avenge the US killing of Soleimani, and we all ducked for days, wondering when a war would start. Most political speeches by our male leaders end with gunfire to celebrate how grand and important the leader is. As poverty increased in recent months, more people took the streets and were met with brutal police violence. Several peaceful protestors, young men and women, were left blinded or brain damaged for life because of a severe police crackdown. The same political class the protesters are trying to fight against appoints the judiciary, so there’s no real chance of fighting back.
Where we stand is together
This feeling that it’s us versus the world is not exaggerated. Every day it feels like we need to put on a suit of armour just to be able to get to work on time, and be seen. Every day, we have to fight off the feeling that everything is getting worse by sticking together.
Last year, when my colleague and friend Dr Zeina Halabi suggested we form a women’s alliance, more than 100 women faculty jumped at the idea. This year, the AUB Women’s Alliance will march under the slogan of “Women Professors for Accountability.”
Accountability is what our collective efforts aim at this year, accountability for corrupt warlords and accountability at the workplace, and in our private lives. This year’s #IWD theme is all about “collective individualism”, and so from Beirut I feel empowered and hopeful because we are building collectively and strategizing collectively.
The Lebanese political system feeds on killing its women
“I just get things done, it is not rocket science,” my friend tells me as I ask her about a project. She brushes off that I am impressed, and says it comes down to just working hard. ‘Just working hard’ I think, ‘just working hard’. What a bad way of phrasing hard work and all the emotional labour that goes into getting things done, against the odds. What an unfair world it is that makes us attribute our effort to ‘just hard work’. It is not just hard work. It is important we recognise the work we do collectively, just to be seen, and just to fix the mistakes of the men who came before us.
This is certainly how politics and life are in Beirut; a series of unfortunate failures by fortunate men who will not step aside to let anybody else govern properly, and certainly not a woman. But next time it will be different. I am certain, because we are slowly reclaiming public space and political space that will amount to the representation we so badly need to fix this country, and fix our lives. *Carmen Geha is a political activist and an Assistant Professor of Public Administration at the American University of Beirut. She specializes in research on social movements and protests, women in politics and refugee policies.
Baabda Financial, Economic Meeting ‘Supports’ Govt. Decisions
Naharnet/March 07/2020
An Economic and Financial meeting chaired by President Michel Aoun kicked off at Baabda Presidential Palace on Saturday, media office of the Presidency said on Twitter. The meeting was held in the presence of Speaker Nabih Berri, PM Hassan Diab, Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Zeina Akar, Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni, Economy Minister Raoul Nehme, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh and head of the Association of Banks in Lebanon Salim Sfeir, added the presidency. The meeting comes before a major decision Lebanon plans to announce Saturday on whether it will pay or default on $1.2 billion in Eurobonds maturing on March 9. Presidency Director General Antoine Choucair read a statement after the meeting. “Based on the available options, conferees at the financial and economic meeting decided to support the government in whatever option it adopts, except for the payment of the debt maturities,” Choucair said. Cabinet meeting will be held at 1:00 p.m. to decide on the matter. Diab is expected to make an announcement after the meeting.
Aoun, Berri Deny Role in Decision to Freeze Assets of 20 Lebanese Banks
Beirut – Asharq Al-Awsat/March 07/2020
Lebanese President Michel Aoun and Speaker Nabih Berri denied on Friday having a role in the Financial Prosecutor’s decision to freeze the assets of 20 Lebanese banks, their top bosses and board members.
Media reports have accused both Aoun and Berri of standing behind the decision, which involved some of Lebanon’s biggest banks, including Blom, Audi, Byblos, Bank of Beirut, and SGBL (Societe Generale De Banque Au Liban SAL). The president’s press office rebuked in a statement “the false information published by An-Nahar, and Nidaa Al-Watan newspapers about Aoun’s role” regarding the action taken by the Financial Prosecutor, Judge Ali Ibrahim. “We are concerned to clarify that Aoun, based on his constitutional responsibilities … observes the implementation of laws and prevents any imbalance in their application and in all that could have negative repercussions on the security, economic and financial stability in the country,” the office added. It called once again on media outlets to avoid publishing false and fabricated news. Deputy Hani Qubaisi, a member of the Amal Movement, which is headed by Berri, said on Friday that the speaker “would not have reversed it, had he been behind the decision to freeze the bank assets.” The Financial Prosecutor decided on Thursday to freeze the assets of the 20 banks but State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat later suspended the order. Oueidat warned that Ibrahim’s move could cause chaos within the financial sector and plunge the country into more uncertainty.
Diab Says Lebanon Will Restructure Debt, Seek ‘Fair Negotiations’
Naharnet/March 07/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced Saturday that Lebanon said will default on its Eurobond debt for the first time and seek out restructuring agreements amid a spiralling financial crisis that has hit foreign currency reserves. The country, hit by a severe liquidity crunch and months of anti-government protests, was due on March 9 to repay a $1.2-billion Eurobond, while another $700 million matures in April, and a further $600 million matures in June. But Diab said that foreign currency reserves have fallen to “a worrying and dangerous level which pushes the Lebanese government to suspend payment of the March 9 Eurobond maturity because of a need for these funds.” “The Lebanese state will seek to restructure its debts, in a manner consistent with the national interest, by entering into fair negotiations… with all creditors,” he said in a live address. Lebanon’s debt burden, long among the largest in the world, is now equivalent to nearly 170 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). Despite a series of crises, the country has never before defaulted, but in recent months it has grappled with its worst economic turmoil since the 1975-1990 civil war. Foreign currency inflows have slowed, Lebanon’s pound has plunged in value and banks have imposed tough restrictions on dollar withdrawals and transfers.
Debt restructuring
Local banks, which own a chunk of the Eurobonds maturing on March 9, had argued against a default, saying it would pile added pressure on a cash-strapped banking sector and compromise Lebanon’s ties with foreign creditors. According to Marwan Barakat, head of research at Bank Audi, Lebanese banks owned $12.7 billion of the country’s outstanding $30 billion Eurobonds as of the end of January. The central bank held $5.7 billion and the remainder was owned by foreign creditors, he said. According to local media reports, Lebanese banks have recently sold a chunk of their Eurobonds to foreign lenders.
Anti-government demonstrators who have remained on the streets since October have lobbied against repayment, fearing a depletion of reserves could further limit access to their savings. “We shouldn’t have to pay the price of government shortcomings,” said Nour, a 16-year-old demonstrator, during a rally outside the central bank’s headquarters in Beirut. Rallies were held across the country on Saturday to decry deteriorating living conditions. Lebanon’s sovereign debt rating slid into junk territory long ago, but investor confidence has fallen further since the mass protests erupted. Credit rating agencies have warned of further downgrades in the event of a default, but economists have stressed the need to protect Lebanon’s foreign currency reserves. Jad Chaaban, an economics professor at the American University of Beirut, blamed the political class for Lebanon’s predicament, accusing it of decades of corruption. The crisis “is the creation of a failed and criminal political class that has lied and robbed for more than 30 years,” he said on Facebook. He called on officials to restructure the debt and introduce an economic rescue plan that would protect modest depositors.
IMF assistance
Diab met last month with a delegation from the International Monetary Fund to discuss how to tackle the country’s spiralling economic crisis. The premier asked the Washington-based emergency lender for advice, but has yet to ask for funds. Barakat at Bank Audi said IMF assistance was necessary. “Lebanon needs first and foremost an imminent debt restructuring plan within the context of a comprehensive plan for debt management,” he told AFP. The best move would be “to have such a plan under the umbrella of the IMF”, since that would enable international financial assistance to materialise, he said. The Lebanese pound, which has officially been pegged to the dollar since 1997, has plummeted on the parallel market, amid soaring inflation and unemployment. The World Bank has warned of an impending recession that may see poverty rates rise drastically. Lebanon’s foreign backers, including France, have said they are willing to offer financial assistance if the country takes serious steps towards addressing the ailing economy. An $11 billion (10 billion euro) aid package pledged at a conference dubbed CEDRE in Paris in April 2018 has not been unlocked by donors due to a lack of reform.
Lebanon officials greenlight first debt default
The New Arab & agencies//March 07/2020
Lebanon officials greenlight first debt default
Lebanon has been hit by a severe liquidity crunch and months of anti-government protests [AFP]
Top Lebanese officials said on Saturday they opposed making an upcoming debt repayment, as cabinet mulls whether the country should default for the first time amid a spiralling financial crisis. Lebanon, hit by a severe liquidity crunch and months of anti-government protests, is due to decide on Saturday whether it should pay a $1.2-billion Eurobond maturing on March 9.The president, prime minister and senior finance officials “agreed to support the government in any decision regarding debt management, with the exception of a payment of debt maturities”, the presidency said in a statement on Saturday.
That signalled that officials are leaning towards defaulting on the payment. Prime Minister Hassan Diab is expected to address the public at 16:30 GMT, after the cabinet meeting. Lebanon’s debt burden had been among the largest in the world, equivalent to 150 percent of its GDP, but despite a series of crises, the country has never defaulted. Yet in recent months, Lebanon’s pound has plunged and banks have imposed tough restrictions on dollar withdrawals and transfers. Local banks, which own a chunk of the Eurobonds maturing on March 9, have argued against a default, saying it would pile added pressure on an ailing banking sector and compromise Lebanon’s ties with foreign creditors. Lawmakers, most notably those representing the Shiite Amal and Hezbollah movements, have advocated debt restructuring to preserve plummeting foreign currency reserves.
Anti-government demonstrators who have remained mobilised since October have also lobbied against repayment. Lebanon’s sovereign debt rating slid into junk territory long ago, but investor confidence has fallen further since the mass protests erupted.
Credit rating agencies have warned of further downgrades in the event of a default, but economists have stressed the need to protect Lebanon’s foreign currency reserves. The Lebanese pound, which has been pegged to the dollar since 1997, has plummeted on the parallel market, further crippling the country’s import-dependent economy.
Lebanon will default on its debt for the first time ever
Timour Azhari/Al Jazeera/March 07/2020
Beirut, Lebanon – Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced on Saturday that Beirut will not repay a $1.2bn Eurobond due next week and will instead seek to restructure its massive debt as the country’s dollar reserves dwindle amid an acute financial crisis.
In a televised address to the nation, Diab said the “difficult decision” to default for the first time in Lebanon’s history had been made in order to “secure the basic needs for people”. Lebanon is in the throes of an economic meltdown rooted in corruption, government mismanagement, a decrepit power sector that bleeds billions from state coffers and the civil war next door in Syria.The Lebanese pound has devalued sharply against the US dollar on parallel markets, while banks have imposed informal capital controls limiting the amount of dollars depositors can withdraw as well as transfers abroad. As inflation soars and confidence plummets, businesses are closing and people are being thrown out of work.
“How can we pay creditors abroad while Lebanese can’t get their money from their bank accounts? How can we pay creditors and leave hospitals with a shortage of medical supplies? How can we pay the creditors while there are people on the streets who can’t afford to buy bread?” Diab said.
The decision to default on the country’s debt – which Diab put at $90bn or 170 percent of economic output – was taken unanimously by the cabinet at a meeting earlier in the day, and was backed by the country’s political and financial establishment.
President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh and the head of the Association of Lebanese Banks, Salim Sfeir, as well a Diab himself, met on Saturday morning and announced in a joint statement that they would stand by any decision the government makes on debt repayment – except if that decision is to pay the debt.
Diab said Lebanon will now look to enter into negotiations with creditors.
Lebanese banks, which hold the majority of the country’s debt, had been against default and had dumped Eurobonds to foreign buyers in recent weeks as the likelihood of default grew, weakening the government’s negotiating position.
Diab said the government also planned to restructure Lebanon’s banking sector – a former pillar of the economy which through its sheer size had discouraged investment in more productive sectors.
Lebanon produces little and imports about 80 percent of the goods it consumes. “We do not need a banking sector that is four times the size of our economy,” he said. He also pledged to establish a safety net for the poorest and protect the savings of small depositors amid harsh capital controls by banks that have limited withdrawals of foreign currency to just a few hundred dollars per month. The Lebanese pound, pegged to the dollar since 1997, was previously used interchangeably with the US greenback, but has depreciated in value by more than 60 percent since November on parallel markets. Seeking to stop the pound’s rapid downward spiral, Lebanon’s Central Bank on Friday ordered exchange shops – the backbone of the parallel market – to cap the exchange rate at 30 percent above the official rate of 1,500 Lebanese pounds to $1.
‘Inevitable’ decision
Mohammad Faour, a commentator on Lebanese economics and postdoctoral researcher in finance at the Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School in Ireland, said the decision to restructure Lebanon’s debt was “inevitable”.
“It was only a matter of time since we are paying off debt from dwindling reserves while barely getting any new dollars into the system,” Faour told Al Jazeera. “The sooner you acknowledge that reality and work based on that, the better. All options are really bad, but this is the least worst option available.” Lebanon is staring down the barrel of about $4.6bn in debt repayments this year, while central bank reserves are estimated to be approximately $30bn. Debt servicing has eaten up 30 percent of recent budgets, amounting to $68bn in the past 20 years, according to research by Wael Atallah, a commentator on the Lebanese economy. Now, Faour said the government must commit to a comprehensive, credible economic plan that can assure both the general population and creditors of the path forward.
From the point of view of creditors, Faour said such a plan would benefit from the involvement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, there is stiff opposition to IMF involvement in Lebanon, both from the general public and from Hezbollah, the dominant force in the country’s politics. So far, the government has sought technical assistance from the IMF but has not moved towards accepting any official plan, which would likely include a series of unpopular austerity measures like tax hikes and cuts in subsidies. Lebanon can expect tough negotiations with creditors over rescheduling its debt, some of which has been bought at deep discounts by so-called “vulture funds” that may seek to take the country to court to force it to repay the full face value. Some commentators have warned that Lebanon’s assets abroad could be threatened with seizure, including planes belonging to its national carrier, Middle East Airlines, and gold reserves in the United States. Faour said the latter case was unlikely.Instead, he said, the most difficult part would be how to deal with local banks who hold the lion’s share of the country’s debt – debt that now is unlikely to be repaid. “We should be bracing ourselves for some banks, or most banks, closing for a while because much of their assets could be wiped out from a default, and they have to readjust.” Capital controls – which Diab said would soon be formally regulated – could consequently be expected to remain in place for about five years in a process that banks and large depositors can expect to be a “painful exercise”, Faour added. This means that increasingly angry anti-establishment demonstrations that have been going for nearly five months, and are directed increasingly against banks, will likely not cease. On Saturday, several protests took place across the country, including in Beirut, southern Sidon and Tyre, Zouk Mosbeh and northern Tripoli. “There is no more money, there is no more work,” a protester who participated in a rally north of Beirut told a reported for local news channel Al Jadeed. “There is no more country.”
Lebanon to default for first time in history as PM vows reforms
Georgi Azar/Associated Press/March 07/2020
BEIRUT: Lebanon will default on its debts for the first time in its history, Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced Saturday. Lebanon’s foreign currency reserves dropped to “critical and dangerous levels,” he said, preventing the small Mediterranean country from settling the $1.2 billion Eurobond payment maturing on Monday. The default marks a new chapter in the crisis and could have severe repercussions on the tiny country if foreign lenders take legal action against Lebanon. The currency has already lost up to 60% of its value on the dollar on the black market and banks have imposed crippling capital controls on cash withdrawals and transfers. “These funds should be used to secure basic needs for Lebanese,” he added. The default will be accompanied by the launch of a comprehensive reform program “in order to build a solid and sustainable economy,” Diab said. Lebanon is facing its worst economic and financial crisis in decades, with banks’ hard-hitting informal capital controls limiting all foreign currency transactions. “How can we pay the creditors abroad while Lebanese can’t access their money from their bank accounts?” Diab asked. Diab said Lebanon’s debt reached $90 billion or 170% of GDP making it one of the highest in the world. He added that the total debt and interest Lebanon had to pay back in 2020 is at $4.6 billion. The premier laid the blame of the crisis at the feet of Lebanon’s renter economic model, corruption and regional tensions. Lebanon will now seek to restructure its debts “in a manner that is in line with our national interest by entering into fair negotiations, and in good faith, with all creditors,” Diab said. “More than 50 countries have defaulted before us and those that implemented the necessary reforms have recovered,” he said, something that Lebanon “is determined to do despite the three crises it faces.””The currency crisis, the banking crisis, and the sovereign debt crisis,” Diab said. He held out of hope of unlocking the much-coveted CEDRE funds, which would be unlocked if Lebanon “implements the necessary reforms.””I want to take this opportunity to reaffirm to our international partners Lebanon’s commitment to the vision of stability and growth proposed at the Cedar Conference,” Diab said. Key members of the political and banking elite in the tiny Mediterranean country said they will “unanimously stand by the government in any decision it takes in managing the debt with the exception of paying back maturing debts.”That’s according to the director-general of Lebanon’s presidency, Antoine Choucair. He briefed reporters after a meeting attended by the president, prime minister, parliament speaker, central bank governor, the head of the banking association and financial experts.Opinions in Lebanon were split on whether to pay or not. Local banks, who are a main lender to the state, say the bonds should be paid on time to protect the country’s reputation. Others said the Central Bank’s dwindling foreign currency reserves should be saved to import wheat, fuel and medicine in the coming months.–With AP.
Lebanon opts to default on $1.2bn Eurobond debt
The National/March 07/2020
Lebanon decided not to repay a $1.2 billion Eurobond due on Monday, setting the heavily indebted state on course for a sovereign default and restructuring negotiations as it grapples with a major financial crisis.
Foreign currency reserves have fallen to “a worrying and dangerous level which pushes the Lebanese government to suspend payment of the March 9 Eurobond maturity because of a need for these funds,” Prime Minister Hassan Diab said in an address to the nation following a cabinet meeting on Saturday. “The decision to suspend payment is the only way to stop the attrition and protect our national interests, while at the same time launching a comprehensive reform programme.”Mr Diab said Lebanon’s debt reached $90bn, or 170 per cent of GDP, making it one of the highest levels in the world. He added that the total debt and interest Lebanon had to pay back in 2020 stood at $4.6bn. Lebanon’s debt is “greater than the country can handle” in the current circumstances and the country would strive to restructure its debt through negotiations with bondholders. Sovereign debt was estimated at around 155 per cent of GDP at the end of 2019, with about 37 per cent of that in foreign currency. Mr Diab said Lebanon’s foreign currency reserves had “reached a critical stage”, leading the government to suspend its debt payment so that it can continue to provide basic commodities to the Lebanese people.
The country’s financial crisis came to a head last year as capital inflows slowed and protests erupted over decades of state corruption and bad governance. The import-dependent economy has shed jobs and inflation has risen as the Lebanese pound has slumped, adding to grievances that have fuelled protests. Mr Diab said the government would begin an economic reform plan to cut spending, including in the power sector, and seek to restructure the country’s banking sector. “Watch now if bondholders can block any deal,” said Nick Eisinger, principal, fixed income emerging markets at Vanguard, which holds some Lebanese debt but has been underweight in the market for a long time. “It’s unclear how quick they can go down the restructuring route or get a deal because they need reforms first or at the same time,” he said. The cabinet earlier heard presentations by “a number of local and international advisers on the various possibilities of any decision that will be taken and its implications”, Lebanon’s National News Agency said. Before the cabinet meeting, Mr Diab met with President Michel Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri as well as the head of the country’s banking association. “The attendees decided unanimously to stand by the government in any choice it makes in terms of managing the debt, except paying the debt maturities,” the presidency said in a statement afterwards.
Prior to the cabinet meeting, Antoine Choucair, the general director of the presidency, said there was little support for the repayment of the debt.
Mr Berri had also said last week that most MPs opposed paying. Lebanon has $31bn of foreign currency debt, the bulk of which is held by Lebanese financial institutions. The $1.2bn Eurobond – about 30 per cent of which is with foreign creditors – will be followed by another $700 million of obligations due in April and then $600m in June. Lebanon has never before defaulted on its debt payments. The Association of Banks of Lebanon had urged the government to honour its commitments, not wanting to further erode investor confidence. Last month, S&P Global and Moody’s Investors Service downgraded its debt deeper into junk territory. Lebanon is experiencing its worst economic crisis since the end of a 15-year civil war in 1990, which gave rise to an unprecedented wave of public protests. Lebanon’s state prosecutor suspended an order on Thursday to freeze the assets of 20 local banks, warning it would plunge the country and its financial sector into chaos.
Hitti Contacts Tunisian Counterpart, Expresses Solidarity
Naharnet/March 07/2020
Minister of Foreign Affairs Nassif Hitti expressed Lebanon’s solidarity with Tunisia over the suicide attack that killed a police officer and wounded six others, the National News Agency reported on Saturday.
Hitti contacted his Tunisian counterpart, Noureddine Erray, expressing Lebanon’s solidarity and strong condemnation of the terrorist bombing that took place in Tunisia on Friday. Hitti offered his deepest condolences to the families of the fallen martyrs, wishing the wounded a speedy recovery, said NNA. Suicide attackers struck outside the US embassy in the Berges du Lac district in the Tunisian capital killing one and wounding six other people and once again shaking a city repeatedly hit by jihadist violence.
The Shia vs. the ‘Shia Crescent’
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/March 08/2020
حنين غدار/معهد واشنطن/الشيعة في مواجهة الهلال الشيعي
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/83916/%d8%ad%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%ba%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%b4%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d9%8a%d8%b9%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%ac%d9%87%d8%a9/
Whether by force or politics, Iran desperately needs to reconsolidate power among Shia constituencies throughout the region, but this challenge may prove insurmountable given current public sentiment in Iraq and Lebanon.
On February 15, 2020, Hezbollah organized a ceremony to unveil a statue of Qassem Soleimani in the Lebanese town of Maroun al-Ras, roughly half a mile from the border with Israel. The statue shows Soleimani with his arm stretched out in front of him, pointing toward Israel. While Hezbollah’s officials and supporters were celebrating at the Lebanese-Israeli borders, the Lebanese people were commemorating four months of dynamic but painful protests against the Lebanese political class, whose corruption and failed policies have led to Lebanon’s financial collapse.
In Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, and inside Iran itself—the countries that fall along the Shia Crescent—the people have realized that the enemy is within. It’s their own governments that have allowed the Iranian regime to take over the state and its institutions. Ideologies, resistance rhetoric, sectarian identities and conspiracy theories that have shaped the collective identities and views of the Shia communities across the region, are slowly but surely disintegrating and are being replaced with economic concerns, and strong aspirations towards citizenship and national identities.
The Shia Crescent, which Iran has been investing in for decades, is finally turning against the Iranian regime and its proxies. From Beirut to Baghdad, all the way to Tehran, Iran is facing its most complicated adversary in years—the Shia protestors. For Iran, the enemy is also within, and it’s one that cannot be contained without a drastic upheaval in Iran’s own strategies and political alliances across the region.
Iran has probably never thought that its main challenge was going to emerge from the Shia communities themselves. The regime in Tehran has been following one strategy across the region: empower the Shia identity, throw weapons and money at proxies, and become the father-figure for the Shia by replacing the state and state institutions. However, they never realized that after all the investments in resources and people, and after achieving all the military victories in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, the people—mainly the Shia—needed a practical translation of these victories; that is more—not less—food on the table, and better prospects for their children. The reality is the opposite. With the absence of a socio-economic vision for Iran-controlled capitals, living conditions are no longer viable.
THE PEOPLE VS. THE RESISTANCE ECONOMY
Iran’s worst nightmare started when the Iraqis—mostly in Shia towns and cities—started to chant “Iran, out out, Iraq free, free,” and when the Lebanese took to the streets with one unifying slogan: “All of you means all of you.” This nightmare became a serious challenge when Iraqi protestors set Iranian consulates on fire and when Lebanese protestors included Hassan Nasrallah among the failed Lebanese political figures, and blamed Hezbollah for Lebanon’s calamities.
Iran and its proxies—who have long promised the Shia communities to fight injustice and empower the Shia identity—are today being blamed for the same injustices and shortcomings. This is mostly due to two main flaws in Iran’s strategy in these countries.
First, in order to gain access to state institutions, Iran built alliances with local political figures and parties. It is not enough to form militias and armed proxies, if these couldn’t control the state’s decisions and infrastructure. For Iran, it is always easier to build these alliances with corrupt politicians, by either buying them off directly, or promising them positions through which they can access the state’s resources.
For example, it is not a coincidence that Hezbollah’s allies in Lebanon are the corrupt figures that the protestors want to hold accountable. These allies—such as Speaker Nabih Berri and former Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil—have benefited from this alliance with Iran (politically and financially) but also provided Hezbollah with the access they needed. For example, Hezbollah has 13 seats out of 128 total seats in the current Lebanese parliament. However, because of its allies, Hezbollah controls more than 70 parliamentarians. Same thing goes for the government and other state institutions.
Second, Iran has made it clear to the Shia communities in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran that it is time for them to pay the price for years of free services, political empowerment and quick military victories. When US sanctions against the Iranian regime started to squeeze its finances, this affected the Iranian people, Iran’s proxies and their constituencies.
It was clear that Hezbollah’s finances were hit and many of its social services were put on hold. Eventually, Hezbollah stopped paying salaries to its contractual employees and started firing non-essential staff, mainly those who were hired during the Syria war, and were no longer needed. The Shia in Lebanon were expected to endure and prove their loyalty as Hezbollah implemented its own version of the resistance economy.
Many are trying to be loyal, and are hoping that Hezbollah’s financial crisis will ease as Iran eventually wins over the US in the region, or so they tell themselves as they do not have another choice. But many refuse to pay the price, and the three main Shia cities in Lebanon witnessed widespread protests, despite Hezbollah’s constant intimidation and threats to protestors.
For many Shia in Lebanon and Iraq, they have already paid the price for Iran’s hegemony, and they no longer want to be the silent majority. But speaking out has its own price as well. According to Amnesty International, more than 500 demonstrators were killed in Iraq and over 300 in Iran in brutal crackdowns on protests. In Lebanon, “protests were met with unlawful and excessive force and security forces failed to intervene effectively to protect peaceful demonstrators from attacks by supporters of rival political groups.”
It is going to be very difficult for Iran and its proxies to come back from this. The Shia in these countries no longer believe that the Iranian ideology is the solution or that its strategy to defeat Israel and the US will elevate them from poverty and hunger. These disillusionments—if they persist; that is, if the international community’s pressure on Iran and its proxies persists—will be reflected in the next municipal and parliamentary elections.
THE ABSENCE OF SOLEIMANI
While all these challenges were unfolding, the glue that held everything together—Qassem Soleimani—was assassinated. Soleimani’s Shia Crescent project had already been shaken before he was assassinated. In his last hours, Soleimani was travelling from Beirut to Baghdad via Damascus—a trip that symbolized his priorities and anxieties. It is no secret that Soleimani had been travelling between Beirut, Baghdad and Tehran for many weeks before he died to help quell the protests challenging his project. However, Nasrallah did not mention Soleimani’s micro-management approach, which will eventually lead to a serious void in the Quds Force system across the region.
After 2011, Soleimani’s increased micro-management of all Iran-backed militias—including Hezbollah—led to the decrease of Hezbollah’s military and political maneuverability. When Hezbollah’s last military commander—Mustafa Badreddine—was killed in Syria, Soleimani insisted that he be replaced with four less senior commanders, partly because Hezbollah had lost most of its senior commanders and didn’t have a ready replacement. But the main reason—according to a number of Hezbollah fighters—was that Soleimani wanted to be hands-on.
Therefore, Hezbollah has been relying on Soleimani as a military commander. As such, the group is currently spread too thin to play a much larger role in Iraq or the rest of the Shia Crescent. Hezbollah needs to find its own military leader now before playing Soleimani’s role in the region. A proper replacement of Soleimani doesn’t really exist, and Iran is going to struggle to fill that void.
That doesn’t mean that Iran’s militias will get out of control, or that Hezbollah will refuse to help out. At the end of the day, the money and weapons still come from Iran. However, no one enjoys the connections, the trust and the knowledge that Soleimani had accumulated over the years.
WILL IRAN RECOVER?
As the Shia Crescent shakes, Iran is doing its best to save it. Losing it means losing the ability to project power in the Middle East as well as losing many political and financial resources. The two pillars of this Crescent—Soleimani and the Shia communities—are suddenly depleted, and Iran will focus on overcoming these two challenges.
What Iran really needs now is to make sure that the anti-Iran protests in Beirut, Baghdad and Tehran fail. In Iraq, Iran’s attempts to turn the protests into anti-US protests didn’t work. In Iran, Iranians were filmed avoiding stepping on US and Israeli flags, while in Lebanon, people are still protesting against the new government, which is clearly Hezbollah-made.
If all these attempts continue to fail, Iran and its proxies will probably increase the use of violence until the protests lose momentum and vitality. To a certain extent, Hezbollah managed to do this in Lebanon, and the Iranian demonstrations have temporarily fizzled. However, even if people leave the streets and go home, the economic and social challenges are still there, and hunger will eventually bring people back to the streets.
Iran’s speaker of parliament, Ali Larijani, visited Lebanon on February 18 and told the Lebanese president, Michel Aoun, that Iran is ready to help Lebanon financially. Of course this is tied to Lebanon’s willingness to maintain Iran’s access to Lebanon’s institutions. However, with Iran’s own financial crisis, it is doubtful that it will be able to spare $9 billion in cash to Lebanon. But with Hezbollah making all of Lebanon’s decisions, the Lebanese president, government and parliament will probably not allow real reforms or accept the international community’s conditions. With further deterioration of the economy, and Iran’s incapacity to help the Lebanese people, including the Shia community, Hezbollah will eventually lose most of its support base, a loss from which it will be hard to recover.
IS WAR AN OPTION?
In the midst of its battle with the enemy within, could Iran resort to war to distract the world—and the people—from the real challenges, and maybe elicit some sympathy? Iran has resorted to this strategy before in Lebanon, where Hezbollah has launched many wars against Israel, and gained the domestic and international sympathy they desperately needed.
This strategy will probably fail this time around, and Hezbollah and Iran both know it. There are three main reasons why Hezbollah can’t start a war with Israel at this point. First, they do not have the money to fund a war, train fighters and hire new ones. Second, they cannot guarantee reconstruction as they did in 2006 when the pro-West March 14 camp was in power. Third, the Shia community doesn’t want a new war with Israel—due to the financial situation and the fact that they cannot flee to Syria or other parts of Lebanon.
Hezbollah understands that the 2006 July war was the last war with Israel that the Shia community was willing to endure and that the Syria war has exhausted them. Therefore, Hezbollah has moved the fight against Israel from the field to speeches and stone statues.
As for a potential conflict with the US, Iran also understands that with its depleted resources, war is not an option. By killing Soleimani, the US has drawn a very clear line in the sand, and any Iranian response resulting in American casualties might draw a serious and dangerous response from the US, something that Iran is not ready to risk. Iran needs to re-consolidate its power along the Shia Crescent, and it cannot afford to lose sight while it attempts to bring the Shia back to its fold—by force or by politics. That is Iran’s main priority, and has always been. But that’s also Iran’s most challenging mission. The Shia Crescent no longer appeals to the Shia.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Visiting Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics. This article was originally published on the Hoover Institution’s Caravan webpage.
