A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For January 31-February 01/2020 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon in its 107th Day
Compiled By: Elias Bejjani
February 01/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 31-February 01/2020
MECC comments on the Deal of the Century: ‘There will be no peace without justice’
Salameh Says $1 bn Sent Abroad
Diab Says Solutions ‘Not Difficult’, Slams Acts of Vandalism
Wazni Meets Sfeir Who Says Deposits are Safe
Report: ‘Judicial, Industrial’ Workshops Kick Off Today at Grand Serail
Old Building Partially Collapses in Tripoli
Geagea: Deducting from People’s Bank Deposits Unacceptable
Diab chairs meeting of ministerial statement drafting committee
Diab meets Cypriot Foreign Minister, Japanese ambassador, Social and Economic Council delegation
Diab meets heads of supervisory bodies, judicial councils
Lazzarini from Bkerki: We discussed ways to confront state of national emergency in Lebanon
UNHCR concerned at growing anxiety and challenges of refugees in Lebanon
A tribute to Houda Kassatly’s work highlighting Lebanon’s cultural and environmental heritage at Alice Mogabgab Gallery
Health Minister Says Baby Milk to be Subsidized by BDL
Palestinians Rally in Bourj al-Barajneh against Trump Initiative
Lebanon looks to combat capital flight/The Arab Weekly/January 31/2020
Lebanon’s protesters should not lose hope/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/January 31/2020
Iran’s Limited Options against the US/Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya English/January 31/2020
Shia Militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon Post-Soleimani/Michael Knights, Phillip Smyth, and Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/January 31/2020
Lebanon’s new cabinet still contends with power of the street/Simon Speakman Cordall/The Arab Weekly/January 31/2020
Details Of The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorial published on January 31-February 01/2020
MECC comments on the Deal of the Century: ‘There will be no peace without justice’
Annahar/January 31/2020
MECC considers that the Deal of the Century contradicts with Palestinians’ will to establish a Palestinian State and their right of return.
The Middle East Council of Churches expressed major backlash on the Deal of the Century, calling the international community to restore the legitimate rights of the Palestinians.
“The Palestinian cause is a rightful cause and addressing it through bargaining and trade-offs is unacceptable,” the Secretary General of the Middle East Council of Churches Dr. Souraya Bechealany, said. “Now is the time to achieve peace, a true peace based on justice away from unilateral decisions that flout the relevant UN resolutions.” MECC considers that the Deal of the Century contradicts with Palestinians’ will to establish a Palestinian State and their right of return.
Salameh Says $1 bn Sent Abroad
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 31/2020
The governor of Lebanon’s central bank said that $1 billion had been transferred out of the country, despite tight restrictions on withdrawals as the protest-hit country faces a liquidity crisis. Governor Riad Salameh’s comments came amid suspicions of politically motivated capital flight that are the subject of a probe launched late December. “Of the $1.6 billion that was withdrawn (from the Lebanese banking sector) between October 17 and the end of the year… one billion dollars were transferred abroad by Lebanese,” Salameh said Thursday in an interview with the France 24 TV news channel. Since October 17, Lebanon has been rocked by an unprecedented protest movement against an entrenched political class seen as corrupt and incompetent. The protests coincided with an increasingly crippling shortage of dollars, prompting banks to impose tight restrictions on withdrawals and transfers overseas. Protesters have accused bankers of complicity with the political class and suspect politicians of transferring funds abroad despite the restrictions and a prolonged local bank closure when protests first broke out.
Salameh said the central bank’s investigation “would focus on the $1 billion”, but that it would “take some time”. The other $600,000 that were taken out of Lebanese banks during the period in question were capital deposits held by foreign banks, he added. He noted there had been reports of “politicians, senior civil servants and bank owners” involved in capital flight, but said a probe is necessary to identify those responsible. A report by the Carnegie think tank in November said that nearly $800 million left Lebanon between October 15 and November 7, when most citizens could not access their funds because banks were closed due to protests. Salameh on Thursday played up the country’s monetary stability, despite the Lebanese pound losing more than a third of its value against the dollar on the parallel market in recent weeks. “The rate will stay” the same, he said, referring to the peg of 1507.5 pounds against the dollar. On the street, the currency has been trading at around 2,000 pounds to the greenback.
Diab Says Solutions ‘Not Difficult’, Slams Acts of Vandalism
Naharnet/January 31/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Friday noted that economic and financial solutions are “not difficult” to achieve, during a meeting with a delegation from Economic Committees. “The meeting coincides with the meetings of the panel drafting the ministerial Policy Statement, so that the Committees can be a partner in this drafting,” Diab told the delegation, which was led by ex-telecom minister Mohammed Choucair.”“I know well that the economic institutions’ situation is difficult and I know that they are resisting the circumstances and facing major challenges,” Diab added. “The situation in the entire country and across all sectors is facing difficulties, but we must be a little patient, on the hope that the government will be able to make an achievement that would lead to overcoming the crisis that Lebanon is going through,” the PM went on to say. Commenting on the recent protests that turned violent in central Beirut, Diab said “unfortunately, those destroying institutions are distorting the image of the real protest movement and its reformist goals.”He added: “I know your keenness on the country, that’s why I call on you to continue despite the hardships, because the solutions are not difficult, and God willing we will manage to alter the course of deterioration so that the economy restores its cycle.”
Wazni Meets Sfeir Who Says Deposits are Safe
Naharnet/January 31/2020
Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni held talks with Head of the Association of Banks in Lebanon Salim Sfeir who assured that bank deposits are safe and there are no plans to impose haircut on deposits. “The meeting was positive,” said Sfeir, “the deposits are there and will stay there. No plans for haircut,” assured Sfeir after the meeting. According to information obtained by LBCI, it was agreed during the meeting to make a substantial reduction in interest rate in general, i.e. on deposits and loans, which will contribute to bettering the economy, help borrowers and reduce the burden on public finances. A grinding liquidity crunch has hit Lebanon, where unprecedented protests since October 17 have railed against the political class and a deepening economic crisis. Since September, banks have restricted the amount of dollars that can be withdrawn or transferred abroad. Although no formal policy is in place, most have arbitrarily capped withdrawals at around $1,000 a month, while others have imposed tighter restrictions.
Report: ‘Judicial, Industrial’ Workshops Kick Off Today at Grand Serail
Naharnet/January 31/2020
Two workshops will be held at the Grand Serail on Friday the first related to the economic situation and national industry, the second to the judicial situation and monitoring bodies in a bid to provide the needed mechanisms to enhance the fight against corruption, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday. The meetings complement Wednesday’s financial and monetary workshop held at the Grand Serail as the country grapples with an economic crisis since October. Prime Minister Hassan Diab will chair Friday’s economic workshop to be held in the presence of related ministers, heads of economic bodies from the Chambers of Commerce and Industry in Lebanon and the Industrialists Association. The meeting aims to set a plan to revive economic and productive movement and provide the dollar for the import of complementary raw materials relaunching the industrial movement, and encouraging Lebanese exports, said the daily. In the afternoon, a judicial and inspection workshop will be held in the presence of relevant ministries, specialized public prosecution offices, heads of supervisory and disciplinary bodies and the Accounting Bureau. Sources taking part in these workshops told the daily: “The direct goal is to amplify efforts to combat corruption, and to regulate the work of monitoring institutions in accordance with good management and governance to enlarge the size of the national economy.”
Old Building Partially Collapses in Tripoli
Naharnet/January 31/2020
The upper part of an old building collapsed in the northern city of Tripoli, resulting in no injuries, the National News Agency said on Friday. NNA said the building, which had a bakery, partially collapsed causing material damages only. The building had an earthen roof and was old and cracked. This is the second building collapsing this week. On Tuesday, an old building in Beirut’s neighborhood of Ashrafieh collapsed causing material damages and destroying some cars parked nearby.
Geagea: Deducting from People’s Bank Deposits Unacceptable
Naharnet/January 31/2020
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Friday warned against deducting from citizens’ bank deposits, as he said that the government should take a host of measures before thinking of paying Lebanon’s foreign debt. “Touching people’s bank deposits is unacceptable and the Strong Republic bloc is totally against it,” Geagea said after a meeting for the bloc. “The new government must devise a complete and comprehensive plan and come up with an integrated package of reformist measures… before we can discuss and think of the issue of paying Lebanon’s foreign debt,” Geagea added.
Diab chairs meeting of ministerial statement drafting committee
NNA/January 31/2020
Prime Minister Dr. Hassan Diab, chaired Friday evening at the Grand Serail the seventh meeting by the committee tasked to draft the ministerial statement. The meeting was attended by Deputy PM, Defense Minister Zeina Akar, and Ministers Damianos Kattar, Nassif Hitti, Ghazi Wazni, Raoul Nehmeh, Imad Hoballah, Ramzi Moucharafieh, Talal Hawat, Marie Claude Najm, Dr. Manal Abdel Samad, and Vartineh Ohanian, as well as the Secretary General of the Council of Ministers Mahmoud Makieh, and Presidency Director General, Antoine Choucair, PM Advisor Khodor Taleb.
Diab meets Cypriot Foreign Minister, Japanese ambassador, Social and Economic Council delegation
NNA/January 31/2020
Prime Minister, Dr. Hassan Diab, met this Friday afternoon at the Grand Serail with Cypriot Foreign Minister, Nikos Khristodoulidis, accompanied by a delegation. Talks reportedly touched on the bilateral relations between the two countries and means of bolstering them at the various levels.
Premier Diab also met with a delegation of the Economic and Social Council, headed by Charles Arbeed, with discussions reportedly touching on the Council’s role and achievements in the last period, as well as its future plan aimed to activate its work. The Prime Minister also met with Japanese Ambassador to Lebanon, Takeshi Okubo, who congratulated him on the new government formation in Lebanon. Talks also touched on the bilateral relations between Lebanon and Japan and means to bolster them.
Diab meets heads of supervisory bodies, judicial councils
NNA/January 31/2020
Prime Minister, Dr. Hassan Diab, on Friday met at the Grand Serail with heads of supervisory bodies, in the presence of Justice Minister, Dr. Marie Claude Najm. Premier Diab stressed in front of the delegation the importance of fighting corruption. Diab also met with heads of the Judicial councils, in the presence of Minister Claude Najm. On emerging, Minister Najm told media representatives that the Premier stressed during the meeting the need for the judiciary to carry out its duties and follow up on all dossiers especially those related to corruption.
Lazzarini from Bkerki: We discussed ways to confront state of national emergency in Lebanon
NNA/January 31/2020
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi, on Friday welcomed in Bkerki United Nations Resident Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs in Lebanon, Philippe Lazzarini, with whom he discussed the general situation in Lebanon and the region, and the role of the United Nations amid this crucial stage of Lebanon’s history. “I have discussed with the Maronite Patriarch the latest developments in the country, as well as the impact of the economic situation on the living conditions in Lebanon,” Lazzarini said on emerging. “We tackled the anxiety and frustration experienced by the Lebanese people who have been touching the deteriorating situation on daily basis,” he added. Moreover, Lazzarini said that talks with the Maronite Patriarch mainly focused on the means that could be adopted “to confront the state of national emergency that Lebanon is witnessing today.”
UNHCR concerned at growing anxiety and challenges of refugees in Lebanon
NNA/January 31/2020
UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, expressed today its concerns over the deteriorating situation of refugees in Lebanon amid a number of protests outside its offices. “We fully understand the fears and frustrations expressed by the persons protesting by our office, many of whom are refugees badly hit by the deteriorating economic situation in Lebanon,” said Mireille Girard, UNHCR’s Representative in Lebanon. “Since the start of the protests, our teams have been engaging with the refugees in groups and individually to work together on how best to address the situation,” she continued. Obviously, refugees have the right to express their grievances peacefully, but we are advising them not to expose themselves outside the boundaries of the law.
UNHCR is also deeply worried about misinformation circulating among some of the protestors involved in a sit-in who are led to believe that exposing themselves to the cold and rain or to detention will facilitate or fast-track their resettlement to a third country. “This is not only misleading but also raises expectations that can only lead to more suffering and frustration,” said the UNHCR official. The situation of each person and family varies and is assessed based on its own specificity. Many of the refugees involved in the protest receive UNHCR’s assistance through its cash, winter or shelter programmes or benefit from its health and education programmes.
Efforts are being deployed by other organizations helping migrants to assist those among protestors who do not qualify for refugee status and therefore who do not fall under UNHCR’s mandate. “Refugees and migrants are already in a very difficult situation and we are appealing to everyone to work together on constructive and feasible solutions. It is critical not to aggravate their situation.” said Girard.
“The current situation reflects the growing anxiety among refugees living in Lebanon. Many are deeply affected by the worsening economic crisis in the country, living below the poverty line and having limited capacity to cope. “Despite Lebanon’s remarkable generosity, the challenges faced by refugees on a daily basis are immense,” she added.
To help mitigate the impact of the economic crisis, UNHCR has rapidly mobilized and been able to expand its winter assistance program to provide a safety net at this critical period of the year. In total, over 900,000 refugees received support and vulnerable Lebanese families also benefitted from the programme. We are also actively reaching out to provide more individual counselling to refugees in distress through additional hotlines and face to face discussions. “While we are working hard to further expand assistance, we remain severely constrained by funding limitations. This is forcing us and other humanitarian agencies to prioritize the most vulnerable refugees,” added the UNHCR official, noting that the inter-agency humanitarian appeal, the Lebanon Crisis Response Plan, only received 50 per cent of the money it needs to carry out all its activities and programmes in Lebanon last year.
“Many refugees hope to be resettled to a third country as they do not see how to cope with the current situation. While we understand their hope for a solution, it is important to stress that the number of resettlement places remains extremely limited worldwide,” said Girard. Less than one per cent of the close to 26 million refugees around the world are resettled to a third country each year. While the number of refugees resettled out of Lebanon has been sustained in recent years, thanks to much advocacy, and support by third countries, the needs far outweigh the number of places available. UNHCR remains committed to providing protection and assistance to refugees and asylum seekers in Lebanon, and will continue to work closely with refugees, humanitarian actors and all concerned at this difficult time for the country, concluded Girard.–UNHCR
A tribute to Houda Kassatly’s work highlighting Lebanon’s cultural and environmental heritage at Alice Mogabgab Gallery
NNA/January 31/2020
Alice Mogabgab Gallery – Beirut launched the year of Houda Kassatly under the theme “From the End of Civil War till the Hirak, the Abused Heritage; Architecture, Environment, Refugees”. The event kicked-off yesterday with a roundtable discussion about the abused heritage with the participation of Dr. Nadine Panayot Haroun (Material and immaterial heritage through natural and cultural components), M. Levon Nordiguian (Beirut and its Houses), Dr. Yasmine Makaroun Bou Assaf (Houda Kassatly’s work in Trablous context) and Dr. Jad Chaaban (Environment Destruction, Bankruptcy Construction).
Houda Kassatly presented also during the event, her latest book “De terre et de mains d’homme, la construction d’une maison à coupoles syrienne”, published at Al Ayn Edition, (2019, 240 pages, Arabic and French).
Paying tribute to Houda Kassatly and her committed work is an act of faith in the rebirth of Lebanon. Since her beginnings in photography (1978), the artist took on her to highlight Lebanon’s cultural and environmental heritage, both under constant bullying and degradation.
Since 1995 Alice Mogabgab Gallery – Beirut accompanied the artist in her many fights against orchestrated amnesia, against overwhelming and devastating corruption, against massive destructions of the heritage; all scourges that dominated the daily lives of Lebanese in past three decades. It is a fact that the work of this artist constitutes an essential testimony, on both scientific and artistic level; a work that deeply question, challenge and disturb a public, surrendered to the euphoria of reconstruction.
Form the end of the Civil War until the Hirak, the abused heritage; architecture, environment, refugees. In 365 photos, spread into five exhibitions, throughout the year, Houda Kassatly revisits the architectural and handworker splendors of Beirut and Trablous; the ecological wealth of remote Lebanese regions to Dalieh site in Beirut, the tragedy of Palestinian and Syrian refugees in their dreadful daily life, in Lebanon camps.
The photos of Houda Kassatly are stripped of all artifice. The natural light cherishes and preserves the human dimension of the subject; whether it is a paysage, a still life or a portrait. The strict framing accentuates and renders the beauty of the subject with a splendid accuracy. In each and every work, time is suspended, so the moment preserves the memory of the land, its people and their traditions.
Exhibitions Dates:
” January 30 – March 21: Dalieh the Threatened Shore
” April 7 – May 23: Refugee’s Camps, the Unsustainable Precariousness
” June 9 – July 25: Tripoli of the Orient; Plural City
” September 15 – October 31: Sacred Trees, Sacrificed Trees
” November 10 – December 26: Beirut the Iconography of an Absence
Health Minister Says Baby Milk to be Subsidized by BDL
Naharnet/January 31/2020
Baby milk has been added to the list of essential imports subsidized by Lebanon’s central bank, Health Minister Hamad Hasan announced on Friday. “An agreement has been reached with Lebanon’s central bank (Banque du Liban) on adding infant formula to the list of items subsidized by the bank,” Hasan said in a statement issued by his office. “Accordingly, the Ministry of Public Health will begin implementing the new standards for the pricing of baby milk in Lebanon for ages ranging from zero to 12 months,” the statement said. “The price will not exceed LBP 12,000 for ordinary milk and LBP 13,200 for milk with a special formula,” the statement added. In September 2019, the central bank said it would facilitate access to dollars for importers of petroleum products, wheat and medicine amid a dollar shortage crisis in the country. “Banks that issue letters of credit for the importation of petroleum products (petrol, fuel oil and gas), wheat and medicine will be able to ask the Banque du Liban to ensure the value of such credits in U.S. dollars,” the central bank said. The mechanism requires that a “special account” be opened at the central bank, and at least 15 percent of the value of the credit be deposited in it in U.S. dollars, as well as the full value in Lebanese pounds, it said, adding that the central bank would take 0.5 percent from each transaction. Lebanon is grappling with a free-falling economy and an escalating liquidity crisis. The dollar exchange rate in the parallel market has shot up from the pegged rate of 1,507 pounds to the greenback to around 2,200. Banks have meanwhile imposed restrictions on withdrawals and transfers.
Palestinians Rally in Bourj al-Barajneh against Trump Initiative
Associated Press/Naharnet/January 31/2020
Dozens of Palestinians rallied Friday in the crowded Bourj al-Barajneh refugee camp after Friday prayers, carrying Palestinian flags and pictures of the al-Aqsa mosque, in protest at U.S. President Donald Trump’s Middle East initiative. They chanted “We would die for Palestine to live” and “Revolution until we set Palestine free”. “Palestine is not for sale, even if it were for millions upon millions. If (Trump) gave all of his money we wouldn’t sell to him,” said 58-year-old Fatima al-Khatib.The Palestinians have rejected the Trump plan, which heavily favors Israel and would allow it to annex all of its Jewish settlements, along with the Jordan Valley, in the occupied West Bank. The Palestinians were offered limited self-rule in Gaza, parts of the West Bank and some sparsely populated areas of Israel in return for meeting a long list of conditions. The plan also anticipates $50 billion of investment in the future Palestinian state and describes several ambitious development projects, without saying where the money would come from. Trump’s Mideast plan would situate the Palestinian capital on the outskirts of east Jerusalem, beyond the separation barrier built by Israel. The rest of Jerusalem, including the Old City, would remain Israel’s capital.
Lebanon looks to combat capital flight
The Arab Weekly/January 31/2020
Lebanon central bank governor Riad Salameh announces investigation into $1 billion-worth of transfers abroad. LONDON – Lebanon has moved to combat “capital flight” after it emerged that $1 billion has already been transferred out of the country despite restrictions on withdrawals.
According to local reports, Lebanon’s central bank informed local lenders to settle debt securities and Certificates of Deposit in client accounts, part of emergency measures to put a lid on capital flight from the protest hit country which is facing increasing liquidity problems.
In an internal circular issued on January 30 and effective for six months, banks in Lebanon are ordered to settle the value and interest of debts, Bloomberg reported. The move comes as part of a broader move to ensure sufficient financial liquidity in Lebanon. Banking restrictions already ban most transfers abroad and limit dollar and local-currency withdrawals. Despite such measures, Lebanon Central Bank governor Riad Salameh revealed that significant capital had been transferred out of the country over the past few months. “Of the $1.6 billion that was withdrawn (from the Lebanese banking sector) between October 17 and the end of the year… one billion dollars were transferred abroad by Lebanese,” Salameh said on January 30 in an interview with France 24. The remaining $600,000 that was withdrawn from Lebanese banks during this period were capital deposits held by foreign banks, Salameh added. Salameh announced an investigation into how so much money was transferred, but acknowledged that results would “take some time”He also acknowledged there had been reports that “politicians, senior civil servants and bank owners” were involved in capital flight but called on observers to wait for the investigation’s report. Questions about who was transferring money abroad and how are being raised after a report by the Carnegie think tank in November revealed that nearly $800 million left Lebanon between October 15 and November 7. During this period, the vast majority of Lebanese could not access their funds because banks were closed due to anti-corruption protests. Lebanon is one of the most indebted countries in the world and is currently facing its worst financial crisis in decades with investors increasingly concerned that Beirut could default on its next bond payment in March amidst ongoing anti-corruption protests and political turmoil.
Lebanon’s protesters should not lose hope
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/January 31/2020
Explaining the details of the budget vote presented to the Lebanese Parliament by the newly appointed government this week is a difficult task, but it is a good symbol of both the current situation and what is to come. The most interesting point was the action of the Future Movement led by previous Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who had prepared the budget himself. He called on his MPs to join the session, enabling a quorum to be obtained, but then had them vote against the budget. He knew very well that his MPs’ votes would not be enough to derail the budget and thus the spending program — which is oblivious to the current financial crisis — was approved. His action was basically aimed at allowing the new Hezbollah-controlled government to pass the budget, while pretending to oppose it. This was, therefore, not welcomed by militants nor the protesters, and rightly so.
If you were lucky enough to have understood this budget vote tragicomedy, then it will be clear that new Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s government is nothing more than a continuation of Hariri’s. The only difference is that its appearance now reflects its content — there are no more disguises. Hezbollah was in control during Hariri’s time in office and still is now: No more, no less. It also seems clear that Hezbollah can still count on Hariri’s continued support for the new government. He no longer represents a credible opposition. The opposition to Hezbollah and the system is in the streets. The slogan, “All means all” will not fade away anytime soon.
There has thus been much speculation on what stance US President Donald Trump’s administration will take toward the new government. One thing that is clear is that the US will keep opposing Hezbollah and will treat it as the Iranian proxy it is. It will hence look closely at the actions taken by Diab and increase its pressure, especially if the government takes unilateral decisions or uses excess violence against the protesters. But the US’ margin for maneuver is tight as it is an election year and other files might prove to be more pressing. Meanwhile, it seems that French President Emmanuel Macron is leading the European position and will support the new Hezbollah government, while trying to find solutions for Lebanon’s economic crisis. The main objective of his policy is continued appeasement with Iran and it is deliberately in contrast with the US position. It is even possible that Macron will try and convince the US to soften its stance against the newly formed government.
This is also nothing new. In late 2018, Macron was preparing for a visit to Tehran, and his objective then was to initiate negotiations after the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. It is seemingly for this reason that Macron looked then and still looks today to appease Hezbollah in order to create a special relationship for France and Europe with Iran. He was aware of Hezbollah’s control then and reportedly encouraged Hariri to continue working and protecting Hezbollah’s interests internationally under the false claim that they were indissociable from Lebanon’s.
The French and European position is clear and, beyond regional stability, it has a lot to do with business interests. French and German companies benefited from contracts with Iran reaching the vicinity of €30 billion ($33 billion) following the signing of the nuclear deal in 2015. Lebanon is a small price to pay in order to please the Iranians. Once again, this partly explains why France and Germany have given the cold shoulder to protesters in Lebanon, while giving full support to the regime represented by Hezbollah, with the coverage of President Michel Aoun and Hariri.
It is becoming a much tougher situation for Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah as he is becoming the focus of the protests.
What does this mean for Lebanon, as the risk of sovereign default looms and the country might soon be in desperate need of foreign assistance? If the US does not lose its focus on pressuring Hezbollah and the Iranian regime, then there is little France can do. It will be difficult for Hezbollah to navigate US objections and it will be forced to accept heavy concessions in favor of the protesters if Lebanon urgently needs an international bailout. The other solution for Hezbollah would be total confrontation, which is unlikely given the regional situation. However, if the US gets sidetracked from the Lebanese file for any reason, then Hezbollah will be able to escape international pressure, mainly thanks to France and other European nations, but also thanks to any Iranian terror action in other, more sensitive, regions. It is, nevertheless, becoming a much tougher situation for Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah as he is becoming the focus of the protests.
One final, game-changing issue is what the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) capacities will be in the aftermath of Qassem Soleimani’s demise and how that will impact Hezbollah. The IRGC is Nasrallah’s lifeline, true master and financial sponsor. Any change, such as a succession war among the upper echelons, could lead to its weakening and have a direct impact on Hezbollah. The protesters and the US will know how to exploit this, and it could drastically change the political landscape in Lebanon. The protesters should, therefore, not lose hope, as many factors could play in their favor.
*Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.
Iran’s Limited Options against the US
Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya English/January 31/2020
حنين غدار/خيارات إيران في مواجهة أميركا محدودة
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/82785/82785/
Iran’s attack on two US military bases in Iraq last month were promoted as the beginning of a series of attacks that will eventually drive the US out of the Middle East. Iran and its regional proxies promised that those attacks were the first round.
However, almost a month later, the Iranian regime and its proxies seem to be still figuring out how to retaliate without risking a direct conflict with the US.
As we speak, there are probably a number of generals in Tehran thinking of the next steps, but one thing is clear: the Trump administration has drawn a very clear line in the sand by killing Qassem Soleimani, and this line will probably not be crossed again. In other words, an Iranian retaliation that would harm any American – citizen or official – could lead to a more damaging retaliation by the US.
So what can the Iranian regime do? The people in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon – who have been protesting against the Iranian regime and its toxic regional influence for months – did not really buy the rhetoric that Iran has caused the US serious damage by attacking the Iraqi military bases. To save face, Iran will have to do something. So what are its options?
Despite numerous statements from the highest-ranking leaders across the region – including Ali Khamenei and Hassan Nasrallah – indicating the darkest scenarios for the US and its troops in the region, the much anticipated attack did not result in any casualties, American or Iraqi. If anything, this is an indication that the Iranian regime is stumbling.
Iran’s retaliation was a weak and calculated one, accompanied with lots of bravado and victorious rhetoric. Iran – at the end of the day – has lost its most significant military commander and the architect of its influence in the region. That man will not be easily replaced.
The Iranian regime’s main concern will be replacing Soleimani, not as a man but as the glue that kept all his militias in the region organized and structured. That will require major effort. The regime will not be looking at just another commander to replace Soleimani, but at a new strategy to keep the structure from falling.
Lebanese Hezbollah might be given a bigger role in the region, and Hezbollah’s elite forces might have to be further stretched out to ensure their militias in the four countries – Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, are well bonded and the central command structure does not falter.
Iran will also work to strengthen its anti-America rhetoric with the states it controls. The Iraqi and Lebanese governments will be pressured to adopt a more Iran-friendly attitude and decisions, and in contrast, a more aggressive rhetoric against the US.
But most significantly, Iran will move vehemently to consolidate its power within Lebanon and Iraq. Since a military retaliation is not an option, due to all the risks it entails, Iran will move to take over Iraq and put Lebanon deeper in its pockets. Last week, Lebanon formed its new government – headed by PM Hassan Diab – but made-up of representative of Hezbollah’s allies in the political class. For the first time in Lebanon’s history, Iran today controls the entirety of Lebanon’s government, which would give Hezbollah more access within state institutions.
In Iraq, Iran seems to be moving in the same direction as the choice of the next Prime Minister will determine how much Iran can access Iraq’s state institutions, knowing how significant Iraq is for both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah’s financial system.
Of course, these moves have already been challenged by the wide-ranging protests in Lebanon and Iraq, and that’s why Soleimani had been traveling between Beirut and Baghdad. To advance its sway within Iraq and Lebanon, Iran might have to apply more violent methods against these protests. Many of these methods will backfire in terms of Iran losing more of its popular base among the Lebanese and Iraqi people, but mainly within the Shia constituencies in these two countries.
Today, the Iranian regime has realized two things: first, that they can no longer hide behind Arab Shia but will be directly targeted if they threaten the US via regional militias; and second, that the US’s deterrence in the region has dramatically increased and strengthened.
January 2020 must have been a very difficult month for the leaders of the Islamic revolution. Their muted retaliation most probably will not bring about further US military attacks on Iran and its proxies. However, it might increase the US policy of “maximum pressure” against the regime through sanctions and diplomacy. In any case, one thing was clear to the regime when the news of Soleimani’s assassination reached them: that killing an American – a soldier, a citizen or a public servant — is a very hard red line that cannot be crossed without an unbearably heavy cost.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the inaugural Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant. She tweets @haningdr.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2020/01/31/Iran-s-Limited-Options-against-the-US-.html
Shia Militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon Post-Soleimani
Michael Knights, Phillip Smyth, and Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/January 31/2020
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/shia-militias-in-iraq-syria-and-lebanon-post-soleimani?fbclid=IwAR3guCa9eKzKq6da79d8zJIhtrQ0VZ0EGjZ70EqBn89QKONgVJhF2pmClNc#.XjSbPguntdY.facebook
Will the various regional militias once controlled by Qasem Soleimani continue to take sometimes-unwanted direction from Tehran after his death? Read or watch a spirited conversation with three experts.
On January 28, Michael Knights, Phillip Smyth, and Hanin Ghaddar addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Knights, a senior fellow with the Institute, has conducted two decades’ worth of on-the-ground research in Iraq alongside security forces and government ministries. Smyth is a Soref Fellow at the Institute and creator of its interactive Shia Militia Mapping Project. Ghaddar, the Institute’s Friedmann Visiting Fellow, has worked as a managing editor and journalist with numerous Lebanese media outlets. The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks.
MICHAEL KNIGHTS
The late Qods Force chief Qasem Soleimani played a special role within Iran’s influence-wielding enterprise. He was uniquely close to the Supreme Leader and had the intelligence, creativity, and political backing to design and execute the regime’s complex policy of building and commanding a network of proxy militant groups. Some of his deepest militia contacts were in Iraq, where he cultivated the loyal and capable Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, another casualty of the January 3 U.S. strike that killed Soleimani.
That strike holds serious long-term implications for Iraq. By last September, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had reached its apex of influence next door, graduating from unconventional warfare to “foreign internal defense” missions. Having gained so much control in Iraq, the IRGC now needed to maintain it.
Yet the IRGC and Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces had grown overly reliant on Soleimani and Muhandis. The U.S. strike broke the IRGC’s momentum and opened political space in Iraq, which could lead to the confirmation of a better prime minister very soon. It also disrupted the PMF’s consolidation and created more competition among the militias. Previously, Muhandis had pushed for his Kataib Hezbollah militia to take a leading role in this consolidation. Now, however, the entire militia constellation has room to operate differently, and Kataib Hezbollah’s standing may be weakened.
The U.S. strike also made Iraqi Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr an even more powerful player, and he will likely influence the selection of the next prime minister. Yet even after gaining in prominence and demonstrating his sway through the January 24 “Million Man March,” he still faces pushback from elements of his fractured, difficult-to-control movement. Some Sadrists may drift into the Iranian camp, while others may overlap with the ongoing civilian protest movement.
As for the Qods Force, it is unlikely to lean on two individual leaders to the extent it did with Soleimani and Muhandis. Instead, it will probably redistribute power among several junior leaders, establishing a safer and more diverse mode of operation.
Going forward, the U.S. government should take three steps to improve its Iraq policy. First, it should identify and support friendly actors. This includes defending the demonstrators, listening to the country’s next generation of leaders, and grooming select young Iraqis for future Track II dialogues. Second, it should levy credible threats and punishments against Iraqi figures who deserve them. Third, it should negotiate a sustainable security cooperation framework with Baghdad.
By carving out a safer and less kinetic military role in Iraq, U.S. policy may even align with Sadr’s goals. To maintain his legitimacy, Sadr needs to publicly push for the removal of foreign forces, but that does not necessitate a total U.S. withdrawal. Rather, it may mean a change in visibility and combat operations. Soleimani’s death has opened up the possibility of a civil conversation—after a cooling period—about a new security cooperation framework. The Sadrists will be integral to this conversation. As for the prospect of improving U.S. relations with Tehran, that may have to wait until 2021, following the U.S. and Iranian elections.
PHILLIP SMYTH
Soleimani took a very hands-on approach to leadership. He was skilled at delegating tasks and playing groups off of one another. Under his watch, Syria was the largest nexus for Iranian foreign interference, and it remains so after his death. Tehran’s proxy machinery is already well entrenched there and is unlikely to be abandoned anytime soon. Bashar al-Assad does not have the power to dislodge Iran even if he wanted to—and there is no evidence he does. Although Tehran must still compete with Russian and Turkish influence on the ground, Syria is its grand strategic prize. It has been creating bases there to aim missiles at Israel and consolidate control of its territory. Meanwhile, it is steadily pushing its “resistance” narrative, advancing its ideological goals through the creation of cultural centers, and grooming local Shia groups.
In the wake of Soleimani’s death, Tehran may expand the model it perfected in Syria: namely, fostering the creation of numerous smaller groups, placing them under a general Iranian umbrella to ensure their efficacy, and playing them off one another in order to keep them under control. Currently, much of the Syrian territory controlled by such groups overlaps, especially around the border with Iraq. These areas are home to a large number of bases, Shia conversion centers, and recruitment efforts. Because they serve as a key section of Iran’s “land bridge” to the Lebanese border with Israel, they are very important geostrategically. If the United States launches further military action in response to Iranian or proxy aggression, it would be better to do so in Syria, since that would serve the twin goals of avoiding further flare-ups in Iraq and targeting an important Iranian nexus. The assassination of Soleimani and Muhandis on Iraqi soil has enabled Muqtada al-Sadr to exploit domestic anger for his own purposes. Targeting proxy groups in Syria would also send the message that Washington aims to put an end to Tehran’s transnational project. Operating inside Syria may be more difficult to do now that the United States has fewer allies, but any actions it takes there can be more overt. Finally, U.S. officials should examine how the various Shia groups in Syria and other countries are interlinked, taking this overlap into consideration when designing future sanctions.
HANIN GHADDAR
Lebanese Hezbollah remains the most institutionally established of Iran’s proxies. Yet Soleimani’s death will present more challenges than opportunities for the group. The Hezbollah-Iran relationship last came to a crossroads in 2011. Up to that point, the group had more room for maneuver, and its leaders had direct access to the Iranian regime, which often consulted with them on matters relating to Lebanon and the rest of the Arab world. After 2011, however, the Syria intervention and Soleimani’s increased micromanagement gradually shrank the organization’s military and political maneuverability.
Now that Soleimani’s heavy hand has been lifted, Hezbollah seems to believe it may be able to regain some of the independence it enjoyed before 2011. Yet the group also understands how difficult its current position is. Hezbollah has been suffering from decreased resources and personnel, particularly after being hit with stronger sanctions, losing many elite commanders in Syria, and relying too much on Soleimani as a military commander. As such, the group is currently spread too thin to play a much larger role in Iraq or the rest of the Shia Crescent. Recent domestic protests have only compounded these problems. Unlike in Iraq, the protestors in Lebanon are challenging their local Shia militia indirectly—they are demonstrating against corruption, and Hezbollah protects the corrupt system. The group’s response to these challenges is to consolidate domestic power. For the first time ever, it has formed a government composed entirely of Hezbollah allies. Although it will continue to work on precision missile capabilities with Iran’s help, it cannot afford to provoke a war with Israel until they are ready, so its interim goal is to establish control over all military and security positions within the government. It is also preparing for the collapse of the Lebanese economy and state by storing food and goods, believing it can regain control by offering them as relief amid the deepening crisis. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has flooded the domestic market with Iranian goods by continuing its smuggling operations, and exploited Lebanon’s dollar shortage by hoarding U.S. dollars from Iraq. To enhance Washington’s current sanctions-based approach, U.S. officials should use the Global Magnitsky Act to target Hezbollah’s corrupt political allies. This would hurt the group while simultaneously supporting protesters’ demands for an end to corruption.
Another way to counteract Hezbollah is to refrain from bailing out Lebanon’s current government. The group’s leaders are adept at manipulating the international community’s desire for stability in Lebanon. Under this pretext, they have put forward a Hezbollah-controlled government that will not carry out substantial reforms. Bailing this administration out would only legitimize the group’s control over Lebanese politics. To be sure, the economy and government will likely collapse without a bailout, producing significant humanitarian consequences. Yet the Lebanese people are willing to accept a failed state if hitting rock bottom gives them a genuine opportunity to rebuild the system.
*This summary was prepared by Elise Burr. The Policy Forum series is made possible through the generosity of the Florence and Robert Kaufman Family.
Lebanon’s new cabinet still contends with power of the street
Simon Speakman Cordall/The Arab Weekly/January 31/2020
“The new cabinet’s links to political parties and sectarian leaders clearly undermines their ability to undertake serious reforms,” said Mona Yacoubian, a senior adviser at US Institute for Peace.
TUNIS – Lebanon’s new government produced its first budget against resistance from the street and scepticism from the international community that remains unconvinced of the body’s ability to steer the country out of its dire circumstances.
Hopes that the new Lebanese government might restore stability to the country, which has been rocked by protests since October, were dimmed by anti-government demonstrators remaining on the streets and continuing calls for a government of experts, rather than the mostly political body that presides over them. The new budget, passed by parliament January 27, projects a deficit of around 7% of GDP, significantly more than the 0.6% promised by its predecessor. However, Lebanon’s Finance Committee chairman questioned whether that was possible while protesters and diplomats doubted the projection’s credibility. Demonstrators, eager to end endemic corruption ingrained in Lebanon’s public life and a turnaround in the country’s dire economic fortunes, threw stones at police guarding parliament. Foreign politicians were more circumspect: “The government must put into place indispensable measures. It’s almost a question of its survival,” said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. Much of the concern over the new government centres on its ties to Lebanon’s established political class, not least Hezbollah and its allies, seen by many as being responsible for the country’s crisis. Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s nomination was backed by the Iran-allied group, designated a terror organisation by many countries, which is unlikely to endear it to the foreign donors the country needs. Excluded from the government was former Prime Minister Said Hariri’s Future Movement, which enjoyed strong ties with both the West and Gulf countries, the Christian Lebanese Forces as well as the Druze Progressive Socialist Party.
The task ahead of the new government is hard to overstate. Lebanon’s national debt stands at around $90 billion, the equivalent of 155% of GDP. The unemployment rate is 35-40% among young people, who make up the bulk of the protest movement.
Exacerbating Lebanon’s difficulties is the $1.2 billion Eurobond, due to mature in March, presenting the faltering Lebanese economy with what the finance minister termed “a fireball.”
“The new cabinet’s links to political parties and sectarian leaders clearly undermines their ability to undertake serious reforms that begin to root out Lebanon’s pervasive corruption,” said Mona Yacoubian, a senior adviser at US Institute for Peace.
“To the extent that cabinet members are beholden to sectarian leaders and their prerogatives of maintaining Lebanon’s clientelist patronage system, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for the new government to implement policies that begin to dismantle the most egregious elements of the system,” she said, noting there remained room to begin to address corruption and offer greater transparency into the workings of cabinet.
“Unfortunately, the recent passage of the government budget does not instil much confidence that transparent and accountable governance is in the offing,” Yacoubian said.
Lebanon has asked international donors for $4 billion-$5 billion in soft loans to help purchase basic supplies, such as wheat, fuel and medicine, the Daily Star newspaper reported.
In the long term, Lebanon must be seen to be addressing reforms, including tackling corruption. That could win release of the $11 billion in international pledges made at a conference in April 2018.
“We don’t have the luxury of time. We need immediate reform,” Hanin Ghaddar, a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said by telephone.
“Superficial reform is possible but so far the target of any anti-corruption measures seems to be the political opponents of the current cabinet. They’ll find corruption there, certainly, but it’s not likely going to be enough to satisfy either the international community or the street. All of the main sources of corruption, such as electricity and gas, are tied to the current cabinet, so looks like they’re going to go unaddressed.”However, with Gulf countries — traditionally large donors to Lebanon — unlikely to support a government backed by one of its arch-rivals, Hezbollah, the international community’s reticence over committing more firmly to the new cabinet vests significant power with the people. “The US and Europe are looking at the street,” Ghaddar said. “They don’t want to be seen to be rewarding corruption or supporting a government without popular support. This gives the protesters a huge amount of influence over events. If they can keep going, as they look to be doing, they can drive through change.”
*Simon Speakman Cordall is a freelance writer.
