A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For December 28-29/2019 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon in its 73th Day
Compiled By: Elias Bejjani
December 29/2019
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 28-29/2019
Hezbollah party has already formed the government/Elias Bejjani/December 28/2019
Lebanese Protest at New PM’s Home, Demand he Quits
Report: Arab Assistance for Lebanon ‘Blocked’ under New Govt.
Bassil Urges Action If Banking Bodies Fail to Probe Capital Flight
Activists Storm Banks Protesting Illegal Capital Controls
Lebanese Protesters Turn their Ire on Banks
As Crisis Hits, Lebanese Businesses Fight for Survival
Lebanon’s rogue banks called to account/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/December 28/2019
A Government of Masks and a Hunger Revolution/Rajeh Khoury/Asharq Al Awsat/December 28/2019
A Moroccan perspective on protest movements in the Arab world/The Arab Weekly/December 28/2019
Details Of The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 28-29/2019
Hezbollah party has already formed the government
Elias Bejjani/December 28/2019
Hezbollah party has already formed the government and afterwards assigned Hassan Diab to head it. Accordingly the time of its official declaration and birth is in the party’s leadership hands. Bassil and all the others are mere tools. Lebanon is an occupied country
Lebanese Protest at New PM’s Home, Demand he Quits
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 28 December, 2019
Dozens of protesters gathered outside the Beirut home of Lebanon’s new prime minister on Saturday, calling for Hassan Diab’s resignation less than 10 days after he was appointed. Lebanon is without a cabinet and in the grips of a deepening economic crisis after a two-month-old protest movement forced Saad Hariri to stand down as prime minister on October 29. Anti-government protests continued after Hariri’s resignation, while political parties negotiated for weeks before nominating Diab, a professor and former education minister, to replace him on December 19.
Echoing protester demands, Diab promised to form a government of independent experts within six weeks — in a country where appointing a cabinet can take months. But protesters on Saturday were unconvinced by his promise. “We’re here to bring down Hassan Diab. He doesn’t represent us. He’s one of them,” said one young demonstrator, referring to the country’s ruling elite, who protesters despise collectively. Lina, another protester agreed, saying: “It’s the revolution that must name the prime minister, not them.”The 60-year-old Diab, who has a low public profile and styles himself as a technocrat, last week called protester demands legitimate but asked them to give him a chance to form “an exceptional government”. “We are willing to give him a chance, but let us at least give him a roadmap,” Lina told AFP. “The names don’t matter to us, we want policy plans, what is his program?” she asked.
Protesters decry Diab’s participation as a minister in a government deemed corrupt. The support given to him by the Shiite Hezbollah party also angers many protesters and pro-Hariri Sunnis. Protesters also gathered in the northern Sunni majority city of Tripoli on Saturday, an AFP photographer said. The protests and political deadlock have brought Lebanon to its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. The international community has urged a new cabinet to be formed swiftly to implement economic reforms and unlock international aid.
Report: Arab Assistance for Lebanon ‘Blocked’ under New Govt.
Naharnet/December 28/2019
Naming of Lebanon’s new PM-designate Hassan Diab did not receive Arab and Gulf consent who consider Diab “affiliated” to the March 8 camp, “endorsed” by Hizbullah and “close” to Syrian President Bashar Asaad, Nidaa al-Watan daily reported on Saturday. Arab diplomatic sources told the daily on condition of anonymity that there was “no Arab approval of Diab” and that his designation will reflect on the form of the new government “especially after reports that he visited Damascus and met with officials of the Syrian regime.”Arab states were “willing and ready” to provide economic assistance for Lebanon, said the sources, but the Gulf Cooperation Council’s assistance “was excluded after revelations that the formation process is completely politicized and one-sided.”The sources noted that Arab countries are watching the position of Dar al-Fatwa, the highest Sunni authority in Lebanon, which has not so far given its “blessing” for the designation of Diab. Diab was named earlier in December replacing outgoing premier Saad Hariri after nearly two months of intense political wrangling. But while his appointment was backed by Hizbullah-allied parliamentary blocs, he did not win the backing of parties from his own Sunni community.
Bassil Urges Action If Banking Bodies Fail to Probe Capital Flight
Naharnet/December 28/2019
Caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil, head of the Free Patriotic Movement on Saturday said “we must action” if the parties responsible to control “suspicious” capital flight failed to uncover the involved. In a tweet, Bassil said: “The amount of funds transferred or smuggled after October 17 (the beginning of the uprising) is the responsibility of the central bank governor, the Banking Control Commission and bank owners…if they fail to do something and reveal the numbers and their owners, we must take action at the start of the new year,” said Bassil in a tweet. On Thursday, cash-strapped Lebanon’s central bank governor said he would investigate reports of large transfers of money abroad, which if confirmed, would mark a violation of banking restrictions curtailing such transactions. Salameh said that there has been a lot of talk about “politicians, senior civil servants and bank owners” involved in capital flight, adding however that a probe is necessary to identify those responsible.
Activists Storm Banks Protesting Illegal Capital Controls
Naharnet/December 28/2019
A group of protesters on Saturday stormed some banks in Beirut to protest against undeclared capital control measures, amid an unprecedented economic crisis and nationwide protests gripping the country. Dozens of angry activists stormed a bank saying one of their friends was not allowed to cash a cheque due to the control measures. The move comes as protesters mark the 73rd of protests against corruption and mismanagement. “This is so frustrating,” one activist said, “banks are banning us from using our own money,” he added. Faced with a grinding US dollar liquidity crisis, Lebanon’s banks have since September imposed increasingly tight restrictions on dollar withdrawals and transfers abroad in an attempt to conserve dwindling foreign currency reserves. This has fuelled tensions in the debt-ridden country, where a two-month-old protest movement is demanding the removal of political leaders deemed incompetent and corrupt. Activists say ordinary depositors are footing the bill for a liquidity crisis worsened by politicians, senior civil servants and bank owners who used their influence to get their hefty savings out of the country. Many of the country’s top leaders own, or have large shares in, several banks. As Lebanon’s protest movement enters its third month, demonstrators are increasingly targeting banks for trapping their savings. As a result of informal capital controls, the unofficial value of the Lebanese pound against the dollar has dropped by around 30 percent. The Lebanese currency has been pegged to the greenback at around 1,500 for two decades and the currencies are used interchangeably in daily life.
Lebanese Protesters Turn their Ire on Banks
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 28/2019
Dozens of Lebanese protesters held a brief sit-in inside a bank in Beirut and another in the country’s south on Saturday, part of their focus on banking policies they complain are inefficient and corrupt. Lebanon is facing its worst economic crisis in decades, while protests against corruption and mismanagement have gripped the country since October. The local currency has taken a nose dive, losing more than 40% of its value after over 20 years of being pegged to the dollar. Banks are imposing unprecedented capital controls to protect their deposits amid a deepening confidence crisis. Meanwhile, layoffs and salary cuts are becoming the norm while politicians bicker over forming a new government. Dozens of protesters entered a private bank in the commercial Hamra district in Beirut, protesting capital controls and insisting that no one would leave without the money they came for. Banks have put a withdrawal ceiling of $200 a week on most accounts, while totally blocking outside transfers. “Thieves! Thieves!” two dozen protesters chanted, some sitting on counters and others on the floor. Bank staff watched, and the security guards did not interfere. The protesters later helped a woman with a cane get to the second floor, again shouting that she wouldn’t leave until she got the money she needs. The protesters posted videos of their actions on a Twitter account linked to the protest movement. At another bank in the southern town of Nabatiyeh, a dozen protesters entered the branch chanting “Down with bank rule.” Inside the bank, a citizen complained about how he can’t withdraw money to pay for his son living abroad as well as his employees, yet the bank continues to charge him for a loan he took. “Enough of that!” the man said, according to another video posted on Twitter.The protesters have also organized a campaign called “we are not paying” asking depositors not to pay their loans amid the tight capital controls. The anti-bank protests were fanned by recent comments from the Central Bank’s governor saying he doesn’t know how much further the local currency will lose its value. Riad Salameh’s comments to reporters Thursday deepened panic in the highly dollarized economy. Lebanon imports most of its basic needs, and is one of the world’s most indebted countries. Some protesters are calling for banks to finance imports instead of servicing debts.
Lebanese officials have asked foreign countries and financial institutions to help secure needed capital for imports. Donors have called for major reforms before extending help — a request that will likely be delayed amid infighting between political groups over the shape of a new government. Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on Oct. 29 and continues in a caretaker capacity. The prime minister designate, Hassan Diab, was named on Dec. 19, and is backed by the Hizbullah and its allies. However, he has failed to win the backing of the main Sunni Muslim groups. Protesters have also rejected him, saying he is still part of the ruling elite they accuse of corruption.
As Crisis Hits, Lebanese Businesses Fight for Survival
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 28/2019
After decades of hard work, self-made Lebanese chocolatier Roger Zakhour thought he would finally be able to pass a successful business to his daughter. But then the economic crisis hit. Instead of reaping profits this Christmas, he and his 29-year-old daughter are marking down their handmade ice cream logs. “If it continues like this, in a few months I’ll be bankrupt,” the 61-year-old said sitting in his small shop, surrounded by colourful stacks of hand-crafted chocolates. In protest-hit Lebanon, a free-falling economy, price hikes and a severe dollar liquidity crunch have left local businesses struggling to stave off collapse. Zakhour started making chocolates and then ice cream in the 1990s, refining his recipes until he became a go-to for five-star hotels and well-off Lebanese. But as the economy worsened over the autumn, high-end hotels drastically reduced their orders and walk-in customers became rare. Banks have restricted access to dollars since the end of the summer, sending prices soaring as importers struggle to secure enough hard currency to buy supplies. “We’re heading somewhere we never imagined we would,” said Zakhour, who had just upgraded his kitchen when sales dropped off.
Support fellow citizens
In pursuit of high-quality products, Zakhour imports his ingredients, paying in euros or dollars. But with withdrawals restricted and no transfers abroad, that is no longer viable. “Now when something runs out, that’s it,” he said. Unprecedented protests have swept Lebanon since October 17, with people from all backgrounds demanding a complete overhaul of a political class they deem useless and corrupt.
The government stepped down on October 29, but endless political deadlock has delayed a new one being formed to tackle the urgent need for economic reforms. Zakhour’s business is just one of thousands struggling to stay afloat.
Many Lebanese have been forced to close shop, and a large number have been fired or seen their salaries slashed by half, even as the cost of living increases. Watching all this unfold, 31-year-old nursery school teacher Lea Hedary Kreidi and her family racked their brains to see how they could help. Shortly after protests started, they launched a group on Facebook called “Made in Lebanon — The Lebanese Products Group” to encourage Lebanese to buy locally produced goods.
In just two months, they amassed more than 32,000 members, who post ads for locally or homemade goods, or ask for local alternatives to imported products.
‘Made in Lebanon’
“We’re used to going shopping and buying what our mothers used to buy. We grab what’s in front of us without checking if it’s made in Lebanon or not,” she said, seated at home by a sparkling Christmas tree.
But there are locally made options for numerous products, including detergent, shampoo, nappies, peanut butter, ketchup, and children’s building blocks. “I was surprised by how many things there were that I didn’t know about,” said the mother of a baby boy.
In her drive to support her fellow citizens, Kreidi now skips her usual supermarket in favour of nearby small grocers. This Christmas, only the children in her family will be receiving presents, which will all be made in Lebanon. In Beirut, bar manager Rani al-Rajji says he is also having to adapt — moving away from increasingly expensive imports while also remaining affordable. “As much as I can, I’m trying to lessen the blow so our guests don’t feel they’ve lost their purchasing power and can no longer afford to go out,” said the 43-year-old, who is also an architect.
To do this, he and his co-founders are trying to increase local brands from a fifth to around a half of all bar and kitchen supplies.
“We’re trying to use local products for all those with an alternative made in Lebanon,” he said, sitting at the bar. And they are also attempting to cut out unnecessary packaging and marketing costs, serving wine directly from the barrel and beer from the keg. “We can’t replace everything, but we can try to give Lebanese products more life, encourage their consumption,” he said.
But some cash-strapped consumers say buying local is not their chief concern. In a Beirut supermarket, 35-year-old Mariam Rabbah clutched a nearly empty basket wondering what to buy with her diminished salary.
“Everything is more expensive and we’re now paid half,” she said. “Now what we care about is if something is cheap and good quality — not whether it’s imported or Lebanese.”
Lebanon’s rogue banks called to account
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/December 28/2019
Protesters who have occupied the streets for weeks demanding political change have characterized the self-professed “technocrat” as a frontman for a kleptocracy that has pillaged the country for three decades.Next to Japan and to Greece, Lebanon is the third most indebted country in the world. However, unlike Japan, where the shortfall is backed by a robust economy, Lebanon’s debt relies on a banking sector that has acted as an accomplice with the corrupt government.
For years the Lebanese banking sector has worked on financing the inefficient government and enriched a few, while killing the productive sector of the country. Today the sector is driving the country’s bankruptcy through its unlawful practices to save the day for the Lebanese government. People took to the streets demanding the recovery of funds embezzled by corrupt politicians. However, instead of blocking politicians’ accounts, the banks unlawfully blocked the people’s access to money. Lebanon’s growing debt comes from financing an inefficient and ineffective government that is based on a toxic sectarian division and clientelism. Sectarianism was institutionalized by the constitution drafted at the end of the civil war. It has created a set-up where different denominations share power and the state resources. Government assets have been used by the “zoama,” or denomination leaders, to further their influence and increase control over their own groups.
In this framework there is no rule of law to manage government revenues and expenses, hence there is no real fiscal policy. People are hired just to vote for a certain leader, while contracts are awarded to enrich another. There are no guidelines for government inflows and outflows. In the meantime, the central bank acts like the government cashier. While the bank is supposed to be controlling the monetary supply, it has taken on the additional role of creating money to finance the corrupt government’s inflated expenses. The central bank relies on the Lebanese banking system, which means that at the end the buck stops with the average Lebanese citizen who puts his savings in a Lebanese bank, in addition to some foreign depositors.
Lebanese prime minister designate, Hassan Diab, seems unable to convince the country’s hard-pressed population that he is the right man for the job.
The central bank for years has been issuing treasury bills at high interest rates on the Lebanese pound, increasing demand for the national currency. This has killed the productive sector since the cost of borrowing has become so high. Banks found it highly lucrative to take people’s money and put it in treasury bills and make the spread. They found it much more profitable and easier than doing what banks usually do: Take deposits and extend loans to the private sector. Additionally, when lending to the government, banks avoid facing the business risks associated with lending to the private sector.
After a while the government needed more dollars to finance its international transactions. The central bank began extending debt in dollars. People’s accounts in dollars financed the government debt.
Moreover, for the past three years the central bank has been engaged in financial engineering that allows banks to make outstanding profits at the expense of a growing national debt. The central bank conducts fictitious operations by lending banks amounts, then borrowing from them at a much higher interest rate, giving the banks the spread as profit.These excessive rates were intended to lure depositors into the Lebanese banking system.
For years these practices have led to a growing debt that the economy cannot afford. In recent months, experts have warned of a looming crisis. Regional events have affected remittances to the country, aggravating the situation.
However, the straw that broke the camel’s back was the Assad regime’s liquidity shortage caused by US sanctions. This drove the Syrian regime to ask its allies to withdraw dollars from the Lebanese market and channel them to Syria. However, to mitigate the liquidity crash the Lebanese market is facing, banks are unlawfully holding people’s money. A dollar depositor can withdraw only $300 a week from his account, and the rest can be withdrawn only in Lebanese pounds at the official rate of 1,507.
Using this approach, the bank is unofficially giving people’s accounts a good haircut, forcing them to convert their dollar assets at a rate of 1,507 while the real rate on the exchange market is over 2,000 Lebanese pounds to the dollar. Nevertheless the central bank and its governor claim that the deposits are safe and that there is no cap on withdrawals. At the same time, the central bank is still lending to the government at a 1 percent rate, trying to keep the ailing system together. However, these “time-buying” practices are very costly and will eventually lead to the collapse of the entire economy. The sad fact is that the price will be paid by the Lebanese people, average citizens who are struggling to make ends meet. Meanwhile, Lebanese politicians are enjoying a good night’s sleep knowing their money is safely hidden in accounts in Switzerland or elsewhere.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She holds a PhD in politics from the University of Exeter and is an affiliated scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.
A Government of Masks and a Hunger Revolution
Rajeh Khoury/Asharq Al Awsat/December 28/2019
Finally, the end of the catastrophic race. Who gets there first in Lebanon? A technocratic government pulled out of the hats of political wizards and “Your orders, sir”? Or an economic and livelihoods crisis that could bring a storm that destroys the country and drag it to checkpoints again? Which is worse?
On Christmas, President Michel Aoun visited Bkerke and promised a new government within days. This does not necessarily mean a change in the direction of crisis, especially when, at the same time, the caretaker Minister of Finance Ali Hassan Khalil accused banks of holding employees’ salaries and not paying them in full. This fueled popular rage in the country, especially with fears of the state being unable to pay its employees their wages in the next few months.
Before elaborating on the Hunger Revolution that is knocking on doors, that was warned against by General Joseph Aoun a few days earlier saying that the army will not face a hungry people, let us briefly discuss the comic government and politics.
First, in terms of the shape and form of the strong government and what is being said of it in a mix of fascinating contradictions. Second, in terms of the violent war of statements and angry accusations that broke out between Aoun and Prime Minister Saad Hariri on the ruins of the agreement that brought Aoun to the presidency, and against a backdrop of what Lebanese Sunni leaderships consider to be the ruins of the Mithaqiyya [Charter] broken by the binding parliamentary consultations conducted by Aoun and which ended with Dr. Hassan Diab being appointed as premier despite not gaining Sunni parliamentarians’ votes as required by the constitution.
In Bkerke, Aoun said that the new government will be New Year’s gift, will be formed of technocrats, and will not be a Hezbollah government as western media is saying, but a government for all Lebanese, including Hezbollah. In an attempt to respond to the accusations by Sunni leaderships of him violating the Charter, Aoun said that the government’s color is not determined by the appointment of the premier but by the formation of the government and who is included in it.
In a clear response to the accusations by Hariri that Aoun’s son in law Minister Gebran Bassil is the one forming the government, or by the Secretary-General of the Marada Movement Suleiman Frangieh who claimed that the government is Bassil’s though appearing to be independent, a government of independents whose history is associated with compromises with people of power and influence, known for being inconsistent, Aoun said word for word, “Let us assume that Gebran Bassil is the one forming the government, does he not have the right to? Does he not head the largest parliamentary bloc? Nevertheless, it is not him who is forming the government.”
When asked about what is being said of the Charter in Lebanon being in danger because of the appointment of the premier without Sunni cover, Aoun responded that he waited for Hariri for 100 days. Still, he did not come up with a solution. Sunni leaderships responded to Aoun’s claim that this is not Iraq where the largest parliamentary bloc appoints the premier and forms the government, and that our constitution is clear about parliamentary consultations, which does not necessarily imply that they are linked to facilitating the formation of the government as Aoun did, speaking of 100 days, without recalling the 2 and a half years of presidential vacuum that was imposed by Hezbollah before the agreement with Hariri being premier was reached.
Hariri had outlined the features of the open confrontation with Aoun and his son in law Bassil, asserting that he will no longer cooperate with “the racist and sectarian Bassil trying to take over the country,” and that this presidential term is dealing with the constitution and
law as perspectives. He claimed that he was cautious about maintaining peace with the Shia duo, Hezbollah, and Haraket Amal, out of the refusal of sedition between Shias and Sunnis.
Hariri described the strong government as Bassil’s government, asserting that he will not be willing to return to the premiership if Hassan Diab failed, saying, “With Bassil? No. These are people I can no longer work with after today; he wants to run the country on his own; he needs to concede. How can one work with people who speak of sectarianism and racism?”
Fouad Siniora had announced that the parliamentary consultations did not respect the constitutional Charter when it went over the Sunni vote and when the head of the Islamic Center for Studies Judge Khaldoun Oraymit that Sunnis were not slaves for a prime minister to be imposed on them. Member of Parliament Nohad Machnouk tweeted “We thank the Sayyed [Hassan Nasrallah] for adopting the appointed Prime Minister Hassan Diab; he saved us the time of accusing him of being Iran’s candidate and the Supreme Leader’s advisor’s defense of Diab is a clear and honest declaration that he represents Iran and does not represent the Lebanese, the people of Beirut, or the Sunnis.”
The contradictory positions, of course, continue in terms of the formation of the government when Aoun says in Bkerke that it will be technocratic. He is contradicting his former insistence on a techno-political government. It is clear that the government will be born from the womb of politicians and despite Hassan Diab claiming that it will represent Lebanon and not a political minority and that it will be a government of technocrats par excellence.
Despite him saying: “I am an independent technocrat. I do not know everything because I am an engineer, and it will not only be Hassan Diab who will address the problems”, a moment later he turns into a politician, especially after visiting Selim Hoss, and when he says that we have reached this stage after 30 years of bad policies, in an implicit hit at Hariri politics that this presidential term and its allies are trying to hold responsible for what Lebanon is facing despite all of them being complicit.
Hezbollah’s answer to the technocratic government story that Aoun is talking about after Diab elaborated on it being men of science, expertise, economics, and labor, by Minister Muhammad Fneish that the incoming government needs a political cover. This begs the question: What does a political cover mean? If not, the necessity of having the ministers refer to parties and politicians who are very clearly backing these ministers?
What warrants mourning is not the Lebanese state and political arena sinking in divisions that re-draw the features of March 8 and 14, but the international community and countries that had given aid, convening in the Cedar (CEDRE) Conference, alongside Arab countries, especially the Gulf, that were always subject to accusations by Hezbollah despite being neutral, being convinced that the situation in Lebanon is hopeless.
The catastrophe is that this comes with a wave of horrifying bankruptcy and unemployment, and in a time that the Minister of Finance accuses the banks of holding the salaries of employees as if the banks alone are responsible for the catastrophe produced by the state now forming a government of masked politicians, trying to mock the revolution’s popular demands demanding the overthrow of all politicians, and while Washington announces that there is no Western country ready to save Lebanon if politicians did not understand the message sent by the revolutionary street!
A Moroccan perspective on protest movements in the Arab world
The Arab Weekly/December 28/2019
RABAT – Despite differences in circumstances and the nature of their protests, demonstrators in Lebanon and Iraq agree that sectarian and religious parties in their countries have become part of the political and economic crises and their social backlashes.
A popular awareness has emerged in both countries. People have gone beyond material demands and are calling for fundamental regime change that includes the departure of the political elite and the governance system based on sectarian and partisan quotas. Observers consider that the protests in Lebanon and Iraq evolved from a struggle against corrupt and failed governments to a revolution for structural reform of the substance of the political system.
Moroccan academic Salman Bonnaman, head of the Maarif Centre for Studies and Research, said the Arab world is witnessing a second revolutionary wave that constitutes “an extension of the first wave at the level of the horizon for freedoms and reform demands.” This wave is characterised by its cutting “across sectarianism and political alignments,” rejecting external interventions and awareness that it must negotiate with military institutions.
In early 2011, protests, later labelled the “Arab spring” revolutions, erupted, starting in Tunisia and spreading to other countries, including Egypt, Libya and Yemen. Those revolutions toppled the ruling regimes in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya.
Bonnaman said the new revolts benefited from lessons learnt from the first wave, despite unique specificities that characterise each uprising.
In the first quarter of 2019, Algeria and Sudan witnessed popular protests that forced the leadership of the Sudanese Army to remove Omar al-Bashir from a 30-year presidency (1989-2019) and forced Abdelaziz Bouteflika to resign from the presidency in Algeria.
Bonnaman, author of “The Philosophy of the Arab Revolutions: An Interpretative Approach to a New Uprising Model and of Questions of the Arab Spring State,” said despite their failures and disappointments, the first wave of revolutions “created a legacy of protests.” He suggested looking “at the new uprisings from the point of view of both a continuation of and a separation from the first wave, especially in light of their complexities, spontaneity and innocence.”
In addition to Sudan and Algeria, Iraq and Lebanon have been witnessing, since October, protests that raise similar demands, foremost of which is the removal of the ruling class accused of corruption and incompetence.
While the common feature in the Sudanese and Algerian cases was the demand for the military establishment to stay neutral and steer away from the general political sphere in favour of a civilian authority, the Lebanese and Iraqi cases have in common their “linking sectarianism to corruption and rejecting cultural divisions and sectarian quotas in managing the country’s rule,” Bonnaman said.
“The common denominator in the second wave is the presence of a strong and renewed awareness among the youth that is different from what one finds in classic protest movements,” he said.
The Arab world is living at the rhythm of protest movements that cut across identities, ethnicities and religious sects and transcend narrow ideological dimensions to raise mainly questions related to citizenship, sovereignty and freedom.
A new generation of Arab youth is rejecting sectarian quotas, political alignments, and fragile political collusions by the political elites. They are protesting a socio-economic situation characterised by tension, lack of equitable distribution of wealth, and growth rates that do not reach all social groups.
“The first is a socio-economic dimension that reflects the crisis of the economic development model in the concerned countries and the second is a political revolutionary dimension linked to rejecting the continuity of a governance model that combines power and wealth, closes off the public sphere and fails to build comprehensive and fair development,” Bonnaman said of aspects of the second wave of protests.
He stressed that what is happening is a continuation of the first wave of revolutions. “Protest movements always have a memory and they always consciously and unconsciously benefit from previous revolutionary experiences, especially in the Egyptian case at the level of relations with the military institution,” he said. He explained that “the lack of trust in the existing institutions made the new uprising movements distinguished in their demands by two traits that were not raised in the first wave: They are protesting against external interference, as it was strongly observed in Algeria against French interference and in Iraq and Lebanon against Iranian interference.”
The second trait relates to an awareness to manage dialogue and negotiations with the military establishment, which has political ambitions and refuses to secure a real transition to civilian rule.
In Lebanon and Iraq, protesters from across the political spectrum and from all affiliations and regions raised slogans hostile to Iran and its proxies in Lebanon and Iraq.
Bonnaman said the protest movements adopted reform and change as their goal and not the comprehensive and fundamental overthrow of the system. Therefore, it is necessary for them to produce leaders who can negotiate and find common ground with existing parties, because the latter are organised institutions, and especially with the ones in the opposition. They need to negotiate with the regime or at least with the existing forces that are open to reform from within the system to create a consensus programme for democratic transition.
Bonnaman said such a transitional programme would not have immediate results but it is important for everyone to participate and to pay attention to the gravity of the transitional stage, with all its complications, and be mindful of external interference and internal attempts to counter the reform spirit in addition to economic and social obstacles. He said success of the transitional phase was linked to the maturity shown by the elites and their agreement to protect the demands of the masses and translate them into laws and reform options.
