Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For December 14-15/2019 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon in its 59th Day
Compiled By: Elias Bejjani
December 15/2019
Tites For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 14-15/2019
Kataeb Mourn Party’s First Deputy-President Joseph Abu Khalil
Former President Pays Tribute to Abu Khalil
Sami Gemayel Promises Abu Khalil to Stay Faithful to Kataeb’s Values as He Was
Back shirts of Hezbollah, Amal and their vassals
Dr. Walid Phares/December 14/2019
Dozens injured in violent clashes with security forces in Beirut
Street battles in Beirut as counter-protesters clash with police
Protracted street clashes engulf Beirut near protest camp
Lebanese security forces and Hezbollah supporters clash in central Beirut
Lebanese protesters clash with security forces near parliament in central Beirut
Hezbollah supporters clash with riot police in Beirut
Shencker Says Hizbullah Financiers are Liable to Sanctions
Pompeo: We Stand with People of Lebanon against Corruption, Terrorism
Geagea Meets Khoury, Says LF Won’t Be Part of New Govt.
Emadi Says Qatar to ‘Stand by’ Lebanon during Crisis
US sanctions millionaire Hezbollah moneymen as Nasrallah speaks
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 14-15/2019
Kataeb Mourn Party’s First Deputy-President Joseph Abu Khalil
Kataeb.org/December 14/2019
The Kataeb party on Saturday mourned the death of the party’s first Deputy-President Joseph Abu Khalil, hailing him as the its first fighter in the path towards independence. The 94-year old politburo member’s departure signifies “the turning of entire pages on the party’s struggle and resistance, whether alongside the Kataeb founder to achieve Lebanon’s first independence, or alongside the current party chief in his journey of opposition,” the party paid tribute on its website page. Joseph Abu Khalil had held various high offices within the party over the years. He was one of the founders of the Voice of Lebanon radio station in 1958, then editor-in-chief of the daily Kataeb al-Amal during the Lebanese civil war which was launched in 1975. He was regularly referred to as the “spiritual son” of the party’s founder, Pierre Gemayel, and worked as a close advisor to former President Bachir Gemayel. In February, Abu Khalil had been re-elected to his post at the party’s general assembly.
Former President Pays Tribute to Abu Khalil
Kataeb.org/December 14/2019
Former President Amine Gemayel on Saturday paid tribute to the party’s first Deputy-President Joseph Abu Khalil, expressing his deeply saddened heart over the loss of the comrade to the long struggle and difficult path of Pierre Gemayel and the witness to the birth of the Kataeb and Lebanon. “With him, I have lost the true meaning of truthfulness and loyalty, nobility and honor. He was an advocator of freedom of speech, embracing it as a writer, thinker and speaker until his last breath.”“He made an exceptional mark on Lebanon’s golden record.”
Sami Gemayel Promises Abu Khalil to Stay Faithful to Kataeb’s Values as He Was
Kataeb.org/December 14/2019
Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel on Saturday expressed his sorrow over the death of the party’s first Deputy-President Joseph Abu Khalil, hailing him as “a spiritual father, loyal friend and a committed comrade”. “The Kataeb party has lost the first witness to its struggle,” Gemayel wrote on his twitter, promising Abu Khalil to hold onto the values and constants of the party and be devoted for Lebanon’s safekeeping as he did. “The man died but the legend is born.”“Lebanon suffers the loss of someone who had given it a century of love, faith and sacrifice,” he wrote. “Your smile will be forever engraved in our hearts,” Gemayel said.
Back shirts of Hezbollah, Amal and their vassals
Dr. Walid Phares/December 14/2019
Getting many videos from Lebanon about the “brown shirts” (some call them back shirts) of Hezbollah, Amal and their vassals, parading in Beirut to intimidate the protesters. It is colorful, loud and primitive, but it is not going to intimidate the people to the point of ending the uprising.
And the reason is that most Lebanese on the streets have nothing to lose. Those militias are flexing muscles. Every other Lebanese can flex muscles, if they want. But the protesters aren’t. They want to continue to be non violent and operate under Lebanese and international laws. If the “militias” cross the line, they will meet popular resistance and international measures. Their choice is to keep parading, and they can do so at will, or cross the line, and leap into the next level.
Resignation of the Lebanese President and all the Top Officials Is A Must
Abu Arz-Etian Saqer/December 13/2019
Due to solid facts related to an ongoing Lebanese governmental crisis that is not going to be solved soon,
And because all tangible circumstances indicate that this promised rescue government will not be formed in the near future
And Since all practical solutions for the imminent financial-monetary-economic-social crisis are technically linked to the governmental crisis.
And Since the general conditions of the country is worsening day by day, and warns of a comprehensive and terrifying collapse.
And since the top official have entirely failed in everything and at all levels,
Therefore, the resignation of the Lebanese President of the Republic, along with all the top officials becomes an inevitable and urgent national necessity.
The available two choices are either an inevitable and immediate resignation, or an inevitable and disastrous comprehensive collapse.
Long Live Our Holy Lebanon’
Dozens injured in violent clashes with security forces in Beirut
The National/December 15/2019
Riot police deployed in large numbers in the Lebanese capital on Saturday night The clashes continued into the early morning on Sunday as riot police used water cannon and more tear gas to disperse protesters who pelted them with stones.State news agency NNA said the tear gas had made several people faint, while the Lebanese Civil Defence said it treated 54 people who were wounded, taking more than half to hospital.
The Lebanese Red Cross told AFP people had been treated for breathing difficulties and fainting, along with injuries caused by stones, noting that both security personnel and civilians were among those treated.
The Internal Security Forces said at least 20 police were wounded.
Hundreds of people were gathered as part of a wave of protests that have swept Lebanon since October 17, furious at a ruling elite that steered the country towards its worst economic crisis in decades.
Riot police and security forces deployed en masse in Beirut on Saturday night, chasing demonstrators in the street, beating and detaining some of them, a Reuters witness and a protester said.
The forces fired tear gas canisters and rubber bullets as some protesters tried to push through steel barriers blocking paths to the parliament and government headquarters. Protesters accuse the political class of milking the state for their own benefit through networks of patronage.
Earlier on Saturday dozens of young people opposed to the anti-government protest movement clashed with riot police in the capital, throwing rocks and firecrackers against volleys of teargas.
Young counter-protesters from an area of Beirut dominated by the powerful Shiite movement Hezbollah and fellow Shiite movement Amal tried to raid a key anti-government protest camp in Martyrs’ Square on Saturday afternoon.Anti-riot police intervened, firing teargas to disperse them. The square, in central Beirut, has been at the epicentre of the protests over perceived official corruption, poor services and economic woes.These large anti-government rallies, which grew into calls for a root-and-branch overhaul of the state, have mostly passed off peacefully.
However, clashes have become more frequent in recent weeks, with supporters of Hezbollah and Amal attacking protest camps in several cities amid counter-demonstrations.
Both Amal and Hezbollah are partners in Lebanon’s cross-sectarian government. The counter-protests have taken place in the capital and other Lebanese cities in recent weeks, prompting the leader of Hezbollah on Friday to urge his supporters and those of Amal to stay calm.
Hassan Nasrallah said that the “anger” of some of his movement’s members had gone “out of control” but stressed it had been quickly contained.
Lebanese security services had already used force to disperse anti-government protesters earlier this week.
Since the protests pushed Saad Al Hariri to resign as prime minister in late October, talks between the main parties have been deadlocked over forming a new cabinet. Lebanon urgently needs a new government to pull it out of the crisis which has also shaken confidence in its banking system. Foreign donors say they will only help after the country gets a cabinet that can enact reforms. The process of forming a government will take place as Lebanon faces an economic crisis.
Street battles in Beirut as counter-protesters clash with police
Al Jazeera/December 15/2019
Opponents of anti-gov’t protesters clash with riot police, throwing rocks and firecrackers against volleys of teargas. Riot police in Lebanon’s capital have fired tear gas to disperse men who tried to attack a key anti-government protest camp, setting off street battles that lasted for hours.
The clashes on Saturday marked some of the worst in Beirut since demonstrations against the country’s entire political establishment began almost two months ago.The rise in tensions comes as politicians have failed to agree on forming a new government. It comes only two days away from consultations between the president and parliamentary blocs to name a prime minister.
Protesters demanding an overhaul of the country’s political systems want the formation of a new government that is not affiliated with established parties. The government headed by Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on October 29, two weeks after the nationwide protests began against an ruling elite blamed for state corruption and steering Lebanon into the worst economic crisis since the 1975-90 civil war.The young men on Saturday attacked the epicentre of anti-government protests, apparently trying to storm it to prevent a gathering of anti-government protesters. The attackers approached the protest camp in central Beirut from a neighbourhood known as a stronghold for supporters of the Shia Hezbollah and Amal groups.
It was the second time this week that pro-Hezbollah and Amal supporters tried to attack the protest camp, angered by demonstrators’ criticism of their leaders. Later on Saturday, hundreds of anti-government protesters gathered outside parliament, also in central Beirut, and several people attacked the rally, prompting security forces to fire tear gas to push them back. The clashes spread to streets surrounding the protest camp, engulfing the area with smoke from the tear gas. Security forces chased protesters around central Beirut, some firing several volleys of tear gas from armoured vehicles with multiple launchers. The National News Agency reported that some shop windows in the commercial part of central Beirut were smashed by vandals. An Associated Press reporter saw one security member injured in an eye by a stone thrown by a protester.
Protracted street clashes engulf Beirut near protest camp
اشتباكات مطولة في الشوارع تجتاح بيروت بالقرب من معسكر الاحتجاج
Associated Press/December 14/2019
The rise in tensions comes as politicians have failed to agree on forming a new government.
BEIRUT: Lebanese security forces fired tear gas and clashed with men who tried to attack the anti-government protest camp in Beirut on Saturday, setting off street confrontations that lasted for hours. The clashes marked some of the worst in the capital since demonstrations began two months ago.
The clashes started when dozens of men, some wearing masks, pelted security forces with stones and threw firecrackers at them on one edge of the protest camp.
The security forces fired tear gas to keep the men away, but clashes continued. Riot police fired intense volleys of tear gas, some of the heaviest in two months. What started as a limited confrontation at one edge of the protest camp turned into protracted street clashes that also involved anti-government protesters.
The rise in tensions comes as politicians have failed to agree on forming a new government. It comes only two days away from consultations between the president and parliamentary blocs to name a prime minister.
Protesters have been calling for a new government unaffiliated with establishment political parties. The government headed by former Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned Oct. 29, two weeks after the nationwide protests began.
Hundreds of protesters returned to the epicenter of the protests after hours of clashes with security forces. Local TV station LBC showed dozens chanting against the security forces, accusing them of excessive force. Some chanted against Hariri returning as prime minister. He is emerging as the favorite candidate despite all the political bickering.
The violence Saturday started when young men attacked the epicenter of anti-government protests. The attackers chanted “Shiite Shiite” and approached the protest camp in central Beirut from a neighborhood known as a stronghold for supporters of the Shiite Amal and Hezbollah groups.
It was the second time this week that pro-Hezbollah and Amal supporters tried to attack the protest camp, angered by demonstrators’ criticism of their leaders.
Later on Saturday, hundreds of anti-government protesters, including women, gathered outside parliament, also in central Beirut, and several people attacked the rally, prompting security forces to fire tear gas to push them back.
It wasn’t clear who the attackers were but the parliament speaker is the head of the Shiite Amal group. The attack took place only a few meters (yards) from the epicenter of the protests, and the anti-government demonstrators were dispersed to side streets as tear gas filled the area. The attackers once again pelted security with stones. Dozens of protesters had traveled to Beirut from the northern city of Tripoli to take part in the parliament rally.
The clashes spread to streets surrounding the protest camp, engulfing the area with smoke from the tear gas. Security forces chased protesters around central Beirut, some firing several volleys of tear gas from armored vehicles with multiple launchers.
The National News Agency reported that some shop windows in the commercial part of central Beirut were smashed by vandals. An Associated Press reporter saw one security member injured in an eye by a stone thrown by a protester.
Recently, the anti-protesters accused activists who organize discussions under the name “the Hub” of hosting critics of Hezbollah and calling for normalization with Israel. Earlier this week, some lobbed firecrackers and burned a tent in the protest camp hosting discussions. On Saturday, critics of the attack organized a rally in support of the Hub, but canceled it shortly before the attempted attack.
The attackers Saturday outside the protest camp threw large firecrackers at security forces, who responded with tear gas, engulfing the area with a thick cloud of smoke. The National News Agency reported one security member was injured.
A preacher from the neighborhood mosque appealed to the men who attempted the attack to retreat. Local TV station LBC said officials from Hezbollah and Amal arrived on the scene to contain the situation. A tense calm ensued amid a tighter deployment of security.
Lebanese security forces and Hezbollah supporters clash in central Beirut
Arab News/December 15/2019
BEIRUT: Clashes broke out on Saturday between Lebanese security forces and Hezbollah supporters in downtown Beirut, some of whom tried to break into a barricaded central district of Lebanon’s capital.
Teargas and rubber bullets were fired at the protestors, and the Lebanese Red Cross said several members of the security forces had to be taken to hospital with injuries.
A heavy security presence was put in place central Beirut after the Hezbollah supporters tried to advance to the city’s main central Martyr’s square, and riot police put out calls through loudspeakers for people in he Al-Khandaq Al-Ghamiq area of central Beirut not to gather.
Hundreds of people were gathered as part of a wave of protests that have swept Lebanon since Oct. 17, furious at a ruling elite that steered the country towards its worst economic crisis in decades.
Since the protests pushed Saad Al-Hariri to resign as prime minister in late October, talks between the main parties have been deadlocked over forming a new cabinet.
Lebanon urgently needs a new government to pull it out of the crisis which has also shaken confidence in its banking system. Foreign donors say they will only help after the country gets a cabinet that can enact reforms.
State news agency NNA said the tear gas had made several people faint, while the Lebanese Red Cross said 14 people were injured, six of them badly enough to need taking to hospital.
The unrest erupted from a build-up of anger at the rising cost of living, new tax plans and the record of leaders dominating the country since the 1975-90 civil war. Protesters accuse the political class of milking the state for their own benefit through networks of patronage.
Lebanese protesters clash with security forces near parliament in central Beirut
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 14 December 2019
Dozens of protesters clash with parliamentary police near the Nijmeh Square and at the entrance to the street leading to the Lebanese parliament in central Beirut. The parliamentary police threw teargas at the protesters who gathered late on Saturday in front of the parliament who were attempting to reaching the building. The Lebanese army sent reinforcements to the area to support the parliamentary forces, Al Arabiya’s correspondent on the ground confirmed. Hours earlier, anti-riot police clashed with Hezbollah and Amal supporters who tried to raid a key anti-government protest camp in Martyrs’ Square. The protest movement across Lebanon has so far forced the resignation of prime minister Saad Hariri on October 29 and official talks to name his replacement are to start Monday.
Hezbollah supporters clash with riot police in Beirut
Souad El Skaf, Al Arabiya English/Saturday, 14 December 2019
Calm has been restored on Saturday along the Ring Bridge in Beirut, as a Lebanese military unit arrived to the scene which witnessed clashes between supporters of Hezbollah and Amal Movement and riot police. Earlier, supporters of Hezbollah and Amal Movement clashed with riot police in Beirut, according to an Al Arabiya correspondent. The supporters of the two Shiite groups tried to storm a protest gathered in Martyrs’ Square in central Beirut and near the Ring Bridge, throwing stones on cars parked near the bridge and also toward the riot police who responded by throwing tear gas. The Lebanese Internal Security Forces said that the riot police were subjected to “attacks and throwing of stones and firecrackers by some individuals,” demanding “an end to these attacks in order to avoid the adoption of stricter measures,” the Lebanese state news agency NNA reported. At least one police member was injured, according to the Lebanese Red Cross.
Shencker Says Hizbullah Financiers are Liable to Sanctions
Naharnet/December 14/2019
A U.S. diplomat stressed on Saturday that any party getting involved with financing Hizbullah will be subject to sanctions. “When we discover that a person or organization supports terrorism, we start collecting security and financial information about them in a file based on intelligence reports, legal arguments, and others. We announce the inclusion of these individuals and institutions on the sanctions list after coordination with other government agencies,” said U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, David Shencker in remarks he made to An-Nahar daily. “The Treasury decision is consistent with our position that Hizbullah is a terrorist, criminal, and corrupt organization. Its activities not only depend on the Shiite community, but also on other individuals and groups who facilitate its activities, they belong to other sects. When we impose sanctions on any person or entity, we do not take the religious background into account,” he added. On Friday, the U.S. Department of the Treasury slapped sanctions against Nazem Said Ahmad, Saleh Assi, Tony Saab and several firms allegedly linked to Hizbullah.
Pompeo: We Stand with People of Lebanon against Corruption, Terrorism
Naharnet/December 14/2019
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday announced that the U.S. stands by the Lebanese people in the face of “corruption and terrorism,” shortly after Washington slapped sanctions on three individuals and several firms allegedly linked to Hizbullah. “We stand with the people of Lebanon to fight against corruption and terrorism. Today we designated two prominent Lebanese businessmen whose illicit financial activity supports Hizbullah,” Pompeo tweeted. “We will continue to use all the tools at our disposal to counter the threat Hizbullah poses,” he added. Earlier on Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions against three alleged Hizbullah money launderers and financiers, including a diamond trader who collected art. It accused Lebanon-based Nazem Said Ahmad, whose art collection includes works by Pablo Picasso and Andy Warhol, and his companies of helping to launder large sums of money for the group. “Ahmad, who has a vast art collection, is one of Hizbullah’s top donors, generating funds through his longstanding ties to the ‘blood diamond’ trade,” it said. A second man based in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Saleh Assi, was sanctioned for laundering money through Ahmad’s diamond business and supporting another alleged financier already under sanctions. The U.S. Treasury also slapped sanctions on Lebanon-based accountant Tony Saab, saying he “provided support to Assi.”
Geagea Meets Khoury, Says LF Won’t Be Part of New Govt.
Naharnet/December 14/2019
Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea said on Saturday that his party will not participate in the new government but will take part in the consultations with President Michel Aoun to name a new PM in Baabda on Monday. “The Lebanese Forces will not take part in the new government but we will participate in the binding parliamentary consultations to name a new premier,” Geagea told reporters after a meeting with Ghattas Khoury, adviser to caretaker PM Saad Hariri. On the form of the new government he said: “We support a government of independent specialists because replicating the same government formulas (a national unity government) have proven useless.”“Lebanon needs an emergency government,” he added. For his part, Khoury told reporters: “Parties are seeking a government inclusive of partisans and citizens from the protest movement,” assuring that Hariri is seeking all means to reach a solution. “We are seeking a new stage in which political parties and citizens who took to the streets have a role in the government,” he added. The meeting between the two men came after Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Thursday announced that the FPM will not take part in any techno-political government, calling for a government led by a technocrat and comprising technocrat ministers. Aoun is expected on Monday to begin the binding parliamentary consultations to name who will lead the new government after the resignation of Hariri on October 29, two weeks into the revolt. Lebanon was swept by nationwide protests on October 17 against corruption and mismanagement demanding an overhaul of the political class.
Emadi Says Qatar to ‘Stand by’ Lebanon during Crisis
Naharnet/December 14/2019
Qatari Finance Minister Ali el-Emadi said on Saturday that his country will stand by Lebanon during its current economic crisis, media reports said. Emadi was quoted as telling a conference in Doha, that “Qatar will stand by Lebanon during crisis,” and that “Lebanon’s economic and financial stability are very important for the Middle East.”Lebanon is passing through an unprecedented economic and financial crisis amid mass protests ongoing since October 17 against the entire political class. Lebanon’s economic crisis is one rooted in years of heavy borrowing and expensive patronage networks run by entrenched political parties.
US sanctions millionaire Hezbollah moneymen as Nasrallah speaks
The National/December 14/2019
US accuses Nazem Said Ahmad of using ill-gotten gains to fund a lavish lifestyle and buy art by Pablo Picasso and Andy Warhol
The same day that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivered a televised address on the crisis in Lebanon and harangued the United States, Washington released fresh sanctions on two of the Iran-backed group’s most ostentatious moneymen.
The pair, one based in Lebanon and the other in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, were listed as money launderers using companies “to generate tens of millions of dollars for Hezbollah, its financiers and their malign activities,” the US Treasury said on Friday.
“These designations underscore the extent to which Hezbollah and its affiliates engage in illicit economic activity that prioritises the terrorist group’s own economic interests over those of the Lebanese people,” the Treasury added.
The statement also said that Washington supports the Lebanese people’s demands to end corruption and terror financing that thrives in corrupt environments as two months of anti-government demonstrations continue on the streets in Lebanon.
The statement named the pair as Lebanon-based diamond dealer Nazem Said Ahmad and DRC-based businessman Saleh Assi. Ahmad was accused of involvement in “blood diamond” smuggling.
Assi’s assets, including 7.95 million euro (Dh 32.5 million), 44.8-metre luxury racing yacht named the Flying Dragon, were also listed as blocked property.
The US alleges that Assi used a network of DRC companies to funnel money to Adham Tabaja, a previously sanctioned Hezbollah money-launderer. Either the money went through bulk cash transfers or through Ahmad’s diamond business, the Treasury said.
“Hezbollah continues to use seemingly legitimate businesses as front companies to raise and launder funds in countries like the DRC where it can use bribery and political connections to secure unfair market access and evade taxes,” said Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
“This Administration will continue to take action against Hezbollah financiers like Nazem Said Ahmad and Saleh Assi, who have used money laundering and tax evasion schemes to fund terrorist plots and finance their own lavish lifestyles as the Lebanese people suffer.”
Washington also said that Ahmad hid his illicit wealth by buying expensive art, building a collection worth tens of millions of dollars that he displayed in his Beirut penthouse.
These included works by Pablo Picasso and Andy Warhol. The US Treasury shared an image of Ahmad sitting in front of a collection of works taken as part of an interview earlier this year with Selections Arts magazine.
In the interview, Ahmad also said he owns works by famed Chinese critic and artist Ai Weiwei as well as graffiti artist Jean-Michel Basquiat.
“In concealing his ill-gotten gains from the Lebanese government, Ahmad has deprived the government and the Lebanese people of much-needed tax revenue while the country faces serious economic challenges,” the statement said.
Deputy Treasury Secretary Justin Muzinich also issued a warning to the art world, saying “art and luxury goods dealers should be on alert to the schemes of money launderers who hide personal funds in high-value assets in an attempt to mitigate the effects of US sanctions.”
A third man, Tony Saab, who works for Assi was also sanctioned for assisting in the transfer millions of dollars from two of his bosses’ companies – Inter Aliment and Minocongo – to Lebanon.
The measures taken by Washington mean it is now illegal for any US company or citizen to do business with any of the listed persons and entities and also blocks all US assets and property or face sanctions of their own.
The measures were announced as Hezbollah’s Nasrallah gave a speech on the situation in Lebanon. He began by criticising the US for statements on the protests, saying that Washington intervenes around the world and had sought to co-opt the movement on the streets from the very beginning.
He said America and Israel were seeking to solve the issues they see in Lebanon through the mass rallies on the streets.
Since October 17, protesters have been demanding a complete change of governance with a new cabinet of experts to set about fixing the dire economic situation, rebuild the country’s crumbling infrastructure and combat corruption.
Titles For The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 14-15/2019
Back shirts of Hezbollah, Amal and their vassals/Dr. Walid Phares/December 14/2019
Resignation of the Lebanese President and all the Top Officials Is A Must/Abu Arz-Etian Saqer/December 13/2019
Attack on Hezbollah critic sheds light on group’s shifting tactics/Ismaeel Naar/Al Arabiya English/December 14/2019
Lebanon turns to World Bank and IMF as country faces economic meltdown/Massoud A Derhally/The National/December 14/2019
Analysis/Despite Sanctions and Protests, Israel Knows Trump Still Wants Negotiations With Iran/Amir Tibon and Amos Harel/Haaretz/December 14/2019
As Lebanon’s post-war system dies, a new one struggles to be born/Timour Azhari/Al Jazeera/December 15/2019
Both the US and Iran are determined to avoid war – for now/Raghida Dergham/The National/December 14/2019
*Turkish leader and UAE emir face off over the Palestinian succession race/DEBKAfile/December 14/2019
The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 14-15/2019
Back shirts of Hezbollah, Amal and their vassals
Dr. Walid Phares/December 14/2019
Getting many videos from Lebanon about the “brown shirts” (some call them back shirts) of Hezbollah, Amal and their vassals, parading in Beirut to intimidate the protesters. It is colorful, loud and primitive, but it is not going to intimidate the people to the point of ending the uprising.
And the reason is that most Lebanese on the streets have nothing to lose. Those militias are flexing muscles. Every other Lebanese can flex muscles, if they want. But the protesters aren’t. They want to continue to be non violent and operate under Lebanese and international laws. If the “militias” cross the line, they will meet popular resistance and international measures. Their choice is to keep parading, and they can do so at will, or cross the line, and leap into the next level.
Resignation of the Lebanese President and all the Top Officials Is A Must
Abu Arz-Etian Saqer/December 13/2019
Due to solid facts related to an ongoing Lebanese governmental crisis that is not going to be solved soon,
And because all tangible circumstances indicate that this promised rescue government will not be formed in the near future
And Since all practical solutions for the imminent financial-monetary-economic-social crisis are technically linked to the governmental crisis.
And Since the general conditions of the country is worsening day by day, and warns of a comprehensive and terrifying collapse.
And since the top official have entirely failed in everything and at all levels,
Therefore, the resignation of the Lebanese President of the Republic, along with all the top officials becomes an inevitable and urgent national necessity.
The available two choices are either an inevitable and immediate resignation, or an inevitable and disastrous comprehensive collapse.
Long Live Our Holy Lebanon’
Attack on Hezbollah critic sheds light on group’s shifting tactics
Ismaeel Naar/Al Arabiya English/December 14/2019
Support has been pouring in for Lokman Slim, a well-known critic of Hezbollah, after he began receiving threats in the form of notes left at his home that “his turn was next.”
Slim’s ordeal began on Tuesday when he and Makram Rabah, an American University in Beirut lecturer, were surrounded by Hezbollah supporters in Martyrs’ Square tent after taking part in a public debate.
The debate on “Neutrality as a strategic concept for the return of prosperity” was being held at a tent event called The Hub in Martyrs’ Square. Organizers said the focus of the forum was regional conflict.
But days before it was held on December 10, Pierre Abi-Saab, an editor with the pro-Hezbollah newspaper al-Akhbar, tweeted for his followers to disrupt the forum claiming that the event centered around the normalization of ties with Israel.
“We know who you are. We know who your backers are. We know your agendas. That is your deception, and this is our reality,” Abi-Saab tweeted four days before the seminar.
Speaking to Al Arabiya’s sister channel Al Hadath live during the incident, Rabah said the disruptors who showed up to the event claimed they were fighting for the Palestinian cause and accused The Hub organizers of being Zionist supporters.
“We not facing protesters, we are facing people who are linked to the pro-Iranian parties who are falsely claiming that our seminar is in defense of staying out of the Arab-Israeli conflict. This is completely false,” Rabah said at the time.
Lebanese activist and political analyst Lokman Slim speaks after the incident at The Hub tent.
Slim, director of Hayya Bina and UMAM, a Lebanese organization that focuses on Shia politics and social dynamics, said it was clear that the organizers had no intention of discussing Israel at the seminar and that pro-Hezbollah supporters were using new tactics to distract critics.
“The new strategy Hezbollah started adopting was when they noticed that their muscular strategy was not working. So, they infiltrated the squares by finally sending their people under pseudo leftists slogans and muscles … mainly under the slogan of fighting Israel. What happened on the evening of 11th was a first expression which then continued the day after when they burned the tent,” Slim said.
The same protesters who disrupted the seminar the night before then returned to the square and burned The Hub’s tent but then also proceeded to burn the neighboring tents belonging to other protesters.
“They then raided the house of my family and my home,” he added. “It is a long standoff which became clear over the last days.”
A day after the incident at Martyr’s Square, Slim received printed papers with threats that read: “One day, you will be the trash of history” and “No peace with agents”.
According to Hanin Ghaddar, a Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington Institute who focuses on Shia politics, the incident in Beirut bears the markings of a shift in Hezbollah’s strategy from using media tactics to physical force to silence its critics.
“Right now, it’s beyond the media campaign. I think this is what’s really new. It is actually physical attacks. It’s not just discrediting them and calling them American spies. It’s going after physical attacks in the sense that they actually went ahead and sent people to besiege the tent, the Hub, burning and destroying it and going actually after [Slim’s] home,” Ghaddar said.
The incident came days before Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah gave his first televised address in more than a month when he claimed that the United States was using the protests in Lebanon as a tool to pressure Iran.
According to Ghaddar, Hezbollah tolerates Shia protesters who join the demonstrations against the ruling elite, except when it comes to directly criticizing Hezbollah.
“At the end of the day, they can easily be arrested, targeted and beaten up. And that happened actually in the south many, many times. They went after their families and they went to their homes and interrogated them. So, of course, you get to a point where you decide that your safety and your family is more important than one moment on the street,” Ghaddar said.
“You have a lot of people who joined the protests in Nabatieh, Tyre, Baalbek at the beginning. And it’s becoming a nightmare for them,” she added.
Lebanese protesters have come under repeated attacks from pro-Hezbollah and Amal party supporters who have attempted to disrupt protests in Beirut and other cities. Days after the protesters first erupted across Lebanon, demonstrators came under attack in Nabatieh, a Shia town considered a stronghold for the Iranian-backed organization and its allies, from men reportedly from Hezbollah and the associated Amal party, led by Nabih Berri.
For Slim, the Lebanese activist said he has become used to receiving threats since 2008 but that he felt this time it might be different.
“I never considered that I should speak out for myself but what happened over the past 48 hours didn’t concern me only, it concerns my family, my mother, my sister, my wife and my colleagues. Therefore, I went public. I felt that’s it’s my moral duty to speak out and say that enough is enough. If you [Hezbollah] think that your intimidation will keep us from standing up and from being true to our conviction, you are wrong,” he said.
Lebanon turns to World Bank and IMF as country faces economic meltdown
Massoud A Derhally/The National/December 14/2019
The debt-saddled country has $2.5bn of maturing bonds to pay by June 2020
Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister Saad Hariri reached out to the heads of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank as the impasse in on the precipice of an economic meltdown.
Mr Hariri “expressed to [World Bank president David] Malpass and [IMF Managing Director Kristalina] Georgieva his commitment to prepare an urgent rescue plan to address the crisis, while awaiting the formation of a new government capable of implementing it,” a statement from his office said. Mr Hariri also discussed with both organisation heads “technical assistance that both the World Bank and the IMF can provide for the preparation of this plan”. The calls to the organisations came as rating agencies Moody’s and Fitch warned on Thursday of a deterioration in the status of Lebanon’s top banks, which underpin the economic fabric of the country, following instructions by the central bank to reduce interest rates on foreign and local currency deposits.
Moody’s downgraded the standalone Baseline Credit Assessments (BCAs) and Adjusted BCA of Bank Audi, Blom Bank and Byblos Bank to ca from caa2 and said the emergency directive by the central bank “constitutes a deposit default”.
Fitch downgraded Bank Audi and Byblos Bank’s long- and short-term issuer default ratings to restricted default status from CCC- and ‘C’ respectively. Fitch also downgraded the banks’ viability ratings (VR) to f from ccc-. The central bank’s instructions represent “a material reduction in terms compared with the original contractual terms of banks’ financial obligations”, Fitch said and meet its definition of a restricted default.
Lebanon is facing its worst financial crisis since the end of a 15-year civil war in 1990. On December 4 the central bank instructed banks to cut interest rates on dollar and Lebanese pound deposits by half. It also put in place a six-month cap of 5 per cent for local currency deposits received on or renewed after December 4. Lebanon has been gripped by nationwide protests for the past two months with citizens demanding reforms and changes in the political system that has governed the country since the end of the last civil war. The protests are the largest the country has seen since the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, which led to Syria withdrawing its troops from Lebanon after a 29-year presence there.
Citizens blame Lebanon’s political elite for widespread corruption and nepotism, which they say contributed to the country accruing $86 billion (Dh315.6bn) of public debt equivalent to 150 per cent of gross domestic product, one of the highest ratios globally.
The crisis has led to the Lebanese pound losing about 20 per cent of its value against the US dollar in the local black market.
In an October 18 interview with The National, Jihad Azour, the director of the Middle East and Central Asia department at the IMF, said the fund would review an aid package proposal to help Lebanon if the country requests it.
The crisis has led to the Lebanese pound losing about 20 per cent of its value against the US dollar in the local black market. An IMF bailout package could devalue the currency and require the strict implementation of delayed structural reforms in tandem with austerity measures that are tied to the disbursement of any funds. Though central bank governor Riad Salameh said in November, there are no plans to impose capital controls or a haircut on depositors, some in the country are calling for a haircut on deposits.
A haircut is a financial term used to describe a devaluation of an asset to provide a cushion to lenders. In 2011 depositors of banks in Cyprus, exposed to the Greek debt crisis, lost as much as 60 per cent of their uninsured deposits on balances of more than €100,000 (Dh408,000). The measure was a requirement at the time for Cyprus to secure a €10bn bailout from the EU.
Lebanon needs to pay $1.2bn due in March when a Eurobond hits maturity. Another $700m are due in April and $600m in June. The crisis has increased the yield on the country’s bonds threefold.
Lebanon’s economy is forecast to slow down to 0.2 per cent this year from 0.3 per cent in 2018 due to increased uncertainty, tightening monetary policy and a contracting real estate sector, according to fund projections.
Analysis/Despite Sanctions and Protests, Israel Knows Trump Still Wants Negotiations With Iran
Amir Tibon and Amos Harel/Haaretz/December 14/2019
آمر تايبون وعاموس هاريل/هآرتس: رغم العقوبات والإحتجاجات إسرائل تدرك أن ترامب لا يزال يريد التفاوض مع إيران
إيران تهدد بتدمير إسرائيل من لبنان، وإسرائيل تحذر إيران من أنها ستغرقها في فيتنام سوريا، في حين أن لبنان الواقع في وسط كل هذه المعمعة ينتظر استخراج البترول والغار من بحره وأرضه وخائف أن يكون هو الضحية
Iran threatens destruction, Israel invokes Vietnam – and one Mideast country fears getting caught in the middle
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/81477/%d8%a2%d9%85%d8%b1-%d8%aa%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%a8%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%88%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b3-%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d8%b1%d8%ba%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d9%82/
U.S. President Donald Trump this week brought back into discussion an idea that had almost completely disappeared in recent months: negotiations with Iran. The option of direct talks between Iran and the U.S., which made headlines around the world over the summer, became less relevant as the U.S., Israel and Iran all experienced internal political dramas.
Over the weekend, however, things changed, after Iran released from prison an American scientist who had been held in the country since 2016. In return, the U.S. released from jail an Iranian citizen who had been indicted on charges of violating the sanctions placed on the Islamic Republic.
“Thank you to Iran on a very fair negotiation,” Trump wrote on his Twitter account, adding enthusiastically: “See, we can make a deal together!” It was the first time since at least October that the president has made any positive statement about the possibility of negotiations with the Iranians over a comprehensive deal that will include the country’s nuclear program.
Just four days before that tweet, the Wall Street Journal, basing its story on sources within the Trump administration, reported that the president was considering a deployment of as many as 14,000 U.S. troops to the Middle East to “confront” Iran. The report was officially denied by the Pentagon, and Trump also called it “fake news,” but Congressional sources later confirmed that the option of sending many more troops to the region has indeed been discussed.
U.S. policy in the Middle East under Trump continues to be confusing, unstable and impossible to predict, moving swiftly from threatening a military confrontation on Wednesday to asking for negotiations on Saturday. These constant changes create a continuing challenge for Middle East governments, including Israel, as they try to understand in which direction the administration is heading.
The difficulty of anticipating the moves of the White House seemed to grow after the previous Israeli election in September, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump had no direct communication between them for more than a month. At the time, analysts in Israel interpreted this as a sign that Trump was disappointed with Netanyahu’s second failure in a row to win the election, which ended in a tie. Trump, some in the Israeli media said, wanted to distance himself from someone perceived as a “loser.”
Yet in November, the two leaders resumed their communications. They spoke twice on the phone in recent weeks, and in early December Netanyahu also flew to Portugal for a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. A source involved in the communications between the two leaders told Haaretz that in fact, there was no distance between them after the election, and at the same time, the recent conversations should not be interpreted as a sign of the relationship getting warmer or closer than it had already been.
According to this explanation, Netanyahu does not think he should initiate a phone call with Trump unless he has a very specific request to make to the president, or a pressing issue to discuss with him.
Trump, after all, is busy with his own troubles in recent months, starting with the impeachment process in Congress, and he devotes much of his time to watching television and fighting with critics on Twitter.
In their first conversation last month, Netanyahu mainly wanted to thank Trump for the administration’s decision to no longer consider settlements illegal under international law – a decision that came at an important political juncture in Israel and helped Netanyahu politically. (The White House denied this was the main motivation behind it.)
The more important call between the two leaders happened 10 days ago, and it focused on Iran. Netanyahu asked Trump to further increase U.S. pressure on Tehran, following the wave of demonstrations in the Islamic Republic. Overall, Israel has been pleased with the U.S. pressure on Iran for the past two years, but there is still a concern in Jerusalem that Trump could avidly renew his “courting” of Iran in the hope of securing a meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rohani.
The concern in Israel’s political and security establishments isn’t about a new comprehensive deal between Iran and the U.S. – everyone assumes this is not a real possibility. Iran will never agree to the conditions the Trump administration has set for a new agreement, and Trump will not give up on those demands before the 2020 presidential election, in which he will rely for his survival on the support of Christian evangelicals, a constituency that hates and is suspicious of the Islamic Republic.
Israeli officials have nevertheless warned the administration that the very act of holding a public meeting between Trump and Rohani would by itself decrease the pressure on Tehran. The Israeli argument is that the American pressure on Iran is succeeding not only because of the economic sanctions, but also because of a sense in the international community and the business world that Iran has no way out of the pressure campaign, except for surrendering to the American demands. A meeting between the two leaders, even if it’s essentially nothing but a “photo opportunity,” will send the opposite message: that the American pressure is temporary and will eventually be lifted.
“Right now,” said one Israeli official, “it feels like every week the Americans hit Iran with a new hammer.” A meeting between Trump and Rohani would run counter to that notion.
In September, when a meeting with Rohani was seen as likely thanks to the efforts of French President Emmanuel Macron, foreign companies that were already planning to leave Iran, were suddenly reevaluating. Israel’s ambassador to Washington, Ron Dermer, argued at the time in conversations with U.S. officials that a meeting with Rohani would immediately hurt the psychological element of the pressure campaign against Iran, and would also give the Iranian regime an opportunity to present an optimistic horizon to the Iranian public, despite the difficult economic situation in the country.
Pompeo and other officials in the administration seem to understand the Israeli argument, but Trump himself has not been convinced. Trump was truly willing over the summer to meet or talk on the phone with Rohani without any preconditions, as he stated. Eventually it was the Iranian side that refused to hold a meeting or a call without some kind of American gesture taking place beforehand.
At the same time, there was another source of tension over the summer between the U.S. and Israel: The Americans were angry over a series of aerial strikes in Iraq that were attributed to Israel, and that, according to foreign media, targeted mostly militias and convoys supported by Iran. The Americans were concerned that these attacks, which Israel never officially took responsibility for, will lead to acts of revenge carried out against American troops stationed in Iraq.
At the end of August the Pentagon published a statement supporting Iraq’s sovereignty and distancing the U.S. from the attacks, at the same time that Iraq was officially blaming Israel for the air strikes.
The Pentagon’s statement was the only public expression of the tensions surrounding this issue. The American side was worried about a wide range of options, from revenge attacks to an official request by the Iraqi government to remove all U.S. troops from the country.
Eventually, it seems, that American position on this issue had an impact: Since September, there have been no more reports of mysterious and unexplained attacks on Iraqi territory.
PM’s day-to-day strategy
During the course of the abortive negotiations between Kahol Lavan and Likud, to establish a unity government, various explanations were offered to explain Netanyahu’s insistence on serving as the first prime minister in a rotation, and on having that stint last at least six months. Likud kept peddling new strategic achievements that Netanyahu wanted to promote, by his lights – a strategic alliance with the United States, annexation of the Jordan Valley and even, this week, annexation of the West Bank.
There were also whispers of a different speculation: Netanyahu will use the additional period to realize his greatest aspiration: an Israeli attack that, once and for all, will stop the Iranian nuclear plan. Trump, or so it was said, would accept such a move because it would boost his standing among the evangelicals ahead of the presidential election next November.
It seems this theory has no basis at the moment. Netanyahu never implemented attack plans even during the periods he discussed them with the utmost seriousness, every summer from 2010 to 2013. The prime minister also knows that he would encounter objections from the defense leadership and that his decision, as someone who will shortly go on trial in three serious affairs, would not win much public trust.
As for Trump, despite his unstable approach, he has already made clear his relatively reasoned opposition to a war in the Middle East.
Therefore, it is more reasonable to assume that what we see is simply what is happening: Netanyahu is acting without an orderly plan, in the hope of surviving another day and delaying the finale, in the form of the start of his criminal trial. To this end, he keeps tossing new balls, new justifications, into the air. The main hope that remains to him is a victory in the next election in March, but at the moment this seems like an unrealistic aspiration because it isn’t clear from where the rightist bloc will garner the additional votes.
This week, top Iranians once again threatened to destroy Israel. Possibly these declarations came in response to statements by Defense Minister Naftali Bennett, who called for ejecting the Iranian forces from Syria, threatened to turn Syria into Iran’s Vietnam and warned of possible attempts on the lives of Iranian leaders.
The Iranian statement, as articulated by a Revolutionary Guard general, touched a raw nerve in Beirut, because the general threatened to flatten Tel Aviv by means of launching rockets from Lebanon. The Lebanese defense minister protested that Tehran is involving his country in its conflict with Israel.
The Lebanese sensitivity is also greater because of the intention there to begin a search for natural gas offshore in its territorial waters in the Mediterranean, close to the maritime boundary with Israel. Former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot said this week in a discussion at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies that success in the search for natural gas could help relieve the tension in the north.
According to Eisenkot, finding gas would make it difficult for Hezbollah to heat up the front against Israel because the other forces in Lebanon would fear that a war would hinder economic development. (The Lebanese economy is currently in deep trouble, which was part of the background to the extensive wave of demonstrations against the government and against the influence of Iran and Hezbollah.)
As Lebanon’s post-war system dies, a new one struggles to be born
Timour Azhari/Al Jazeera/December 15/2019
Uprising could bring the death of Lebanese political system where power is shared among religious groups, analysts say.
Beirut, Lebanon – For almost two months, Lebanon has been swept by protests against a ruling class of sectarian elites who came to power as a result of a 15-year civil war that ended in 1990.
The movement has brought down a government and brought together people from across the country’s religious divides.
Now, analysts say that the uprising, coupled with the most serious economic and financial crisis since the civil war, maybe ushering in the death of the country’s political system where power is apportioned among religious groups.
“This system is clearly over,” Sami Atallah, the director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, told Al Jazeera. “Economically and politically it is very clearly the end of an era. But we have yet to produce another one: we have left Lebanon 2.0 but don’t have Lebanon 3.0 yet.”
For Atallah, the economic and financial crisis in Lebanon today has become the clearest indicator yet of the incompetence and corruption of the political elite, in a country where basic services such as electricity and water are still unreliable 30 years after the civil war ended.
Decades of unsustainable financial policies, coupled with unchecked, unaccountable spending, have left Lebanon with the world’s third-highest debt burden as a percentage of its gross domestic product (GDP). The country has increasingly had to borrow new money to pay back old debt, leading it into a debt spiral.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese pound, pegged to the US dollar for decades at about 1,500, has depreciated by about 25 percent to 2,000 Lebanese pounds, due to a dollar shortage tied to a years-long economic slowdown and a decrease in remittances from abroad.
When the government sought to impose more taxes in October, people took to the streets in an explosion of popular anger.
‘Lost faith’
This has led parties that were previously in government together to become increasingly at odds, exposing and exacerbating existing divisions and creating new ones.
“The entire political establishment, which is endemically corrupt, is responsible for the impoverishment of Lebanon,” Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, told Al Jazeera. “The leaders are trying to dissociate themselves from the bankruptcy of Lebanon and are blaming one another without naming a culprit.””They are facing the moment of truth because the vast majority of the Lebanese people have lost faith in them,” Khashan added.
Atallah concurs that the protests “broke something”.
But “materialising this breakdown or changing of alliances into something more material is another ball game”. “We’re at the end of the first phase, but how do you actually make something new,” Khashan asked.
Crisis
Lebanese politics is notoriously fractious, with parties quickly shifting alliances based on interest rather than ideology. But the scale of the splits since the eruption of the uprising points to a moment of severe crisis, Atallah said.
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s allies in the Lebanese Forces and Progressive Socialist Party have said they will sit out the next government even if it is headed by Hariri, with the latter saying it was going through a period of soul-searching and wants to return to its former socialist values.
Hariri has sought to take the side of the protesters, calling for the formation of a government of technocrats or specialists, albeit headed by himself, which many protesters have rejected.
“Hariri is opportunistic. His late father originated the financial crisis by heavy borrowing. Saad Hariri is hardly a reformer,” Khashan said.
Hariri’s father, Rafik Hariri, was a former prime minister who was assassinated in 2005.
Despite being brought to power by an alliance with the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), a powerful Christian party headed by caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, Saad Hariri has sought to exclude Bassil, who is perhaps the most reviled figure on the street.
Bassil recently responded by saying that his party would sit out the next government if it was a government of experts and politicians headed by Hariri, effectively breaking his alliance with the caretaker prime minister.
Bassil also explicitly noted he disagreed with his ally Hezbollah, which has backed Hariri.
Hezbollah has sought to maintain the pre-uprising status quo. In a speech on Friday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called for a government of the “widest possible representation”, similar to the one protesters brought down, that includes the FPM and is headed either by Hariri or a person the caretaker PM backs.
Nasrallah “is trying to preserve a system that he has learned how to operate in since 2005”, Atallah said. “He’s holding onto a system that is largely defunct.”
As a result, Hezbollah is now the main backer of its nominal political foe, Hariri, whose father the group has been accused of assassinating.
‘Masks are falling down’
MP Paula Yacoubian, the only legislator to be elected on an independent list in 2018 polls, said she believed that the Lebanese people would no longer accept a political system where “politicians disagree with each other and then make up later when they’ve settled their deals, all while the country loses”.
“Masks are falling down. What happened with the revolution uncovered the deep understanding between the ruling class. It showed how each side is somehow dependent on the other sectarian leader,” she said.
“I think the mindset of the people is changing, their political approach is changing, they realise the high price they paid to sustain these leaderships,” she added. “It’s a price on their lives and basic needs that they are no longer able to pay.”
In recent months there have been warnings of shortages of medicine, fuel, wheat and other basic goods. Yacoubian sees the worsening crisis spurring on the uprising in the streets, which she said may soon become a “revolution of the poor and unemployed”.
Whether such uprising can bury the sectarian system and erect something new remains to be seen. Atallah said that elections, whenever they are held, would be a crucial indicator. But in any case, he does not see the relationship between people and politics returning to how it was before October 17, when protests broke out.
“The ground has been shaken. All parties are trying to use these protests to their advantage, but I think people see through this. Their credibility is more dismal than ever before,” he said.
Both the US and Iran are determined to avoid war – for now
Raghida Dergham/The National/December 14/2019
The Trump administration continues to put ‘maximum pressure’ on Tehran with more sanctions on its proxies in the region
The Arab countries whose fates depend on the mood of the authorities in Iran and Turkey will continue to suffer until Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces a reckoning for his failed adventurism in the Middle East, and the regime in Tehran adopts real reforms.
The US Congress has slapped sanctions on Ankara for securing a deal for the S-400 air defence system with Russia despite Turkey being a member of Nato. Congress also unanimously recognised the Armenian genocide by the Ottoman Empire more than a hundred years ago, which infuriated Mr Erdogan – particularly since US President Donald Trump himself turned a blind eye to it. The Trump administration is also relatively at ease, as its “maximum pressure” policy has resulted in an economic crisis for Iran and its proxies.
However, the US could yet be dragged into a military confrontation with Iran, a prospect that haunts Mr Trump as he does not want to be involved in a war so close to his tough re-election battle next year. He is still seeking negotiations for a new nuclear deal with Tehran that includes a curb on its ballistic missile programme, not considered in the 2015 agreement signed by predecessor Barack Obama. He also hopes the deal will keep Iranian expansionism into Arab countries – specifically Iraq, Syria and Lebanon – in check. The three countries are essentially bargaining chips Iran could use to negotiate when the time comes but the problem for the regime is that they are all facing internal unrest, which threatens to overturn its gains. Meanwhile, suppressing the protests in these countries could backfire and further weaken it.
Unless a major incident occurs before the end of the year, therefore, the US-Iranian relationship will continue to be determined by a mutual desire to avoid war.
Brian Hook, the US official in charge of the Iranian dossier, has said that if Tehran attacks US interests, his country would respond militarily. Washington’s primary concern is its interests in Iraq, where it is most vulnerable if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets its troops stationed there – although such a decision can be made only by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations, Mr Hook said Iran must either enter negotiations or see its economy collapse, emphasising the effectiveness of the sanctions, which he said have led to a significant reduction in its oil exports.
Concerning the possibility of Iranian military action, Mr Hook’s tone was sharp and clear: “It would be a very big mistake for the regime to make a miscalculation about our resolve.” One US military official said Iranian-backed militias are getting close to a red line but affirmed they would respond forcefully if they crossed it.
Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian president, has said his government is determined to overcome sanctions through various means, including talks. But Lt Gen Hossein Salami, general commander of the IRGC, has threatened “the Americans and their lackeys” with a “strong blow”. While speaking about the unrest in Iran, he went further afield, saying: “The enemies must realise if they don’t stop stirring sedition then the Iranian people will put their interests in the region at risk.”
Through its mission to Iraq, the United Nations has accused “armed entities, militias, outlaws, and unknown third parties” of standing behind the recent wave of killings, kidnappings and arbitrary detentions in the country. At the same time, there is increasing talk of the responsibility of pro-Iranian armed factions integrated into the Iraqi security forces. This organised chaos is very dangerous and Iraq has become a ticking time bomb at the hands of the IRGC. The world is watching, though, and the US is vigilant.
The US is also pressing ahead with its policy of sanctioning Iranian interests in Syria. The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which imposes new sanctions on Bashar Al Assad, the Syrian president, his regime, its allies and those financing it, has received unanimous support from Congress. The act, which awaits the president’s signature, will also give secretary of state Mike Pompeo the power to gather evidence against those who have committed crimes against humanity in Syria to pave the way for holding them accountable. Interestingly, the act will impose sanctions on foreign individuals who materially support the regime and those who may participate in reconstruction projects involving the regime. This means that the Lebanese who are anxious to do business with the regime must think twice now.
In Lebanon, the IRGC’s overconfidence in its ability to contain the revolt has hit a stumbling block, given the reality of the situation in the country and the international scrutiny of its objectives and actions there. According to one observer, “the internal pains in Lebanon will extinguish the calls to emulate the Vilayat-e Faqih system [which transfers all political and religious authority to the Shia clergy]”.
Next week David Hale, the US under secretary of state for political affairs, will visit Beirut, carrying a strong message to Lebanon’s officials. He will say that the time for them to address the country’s problems has come, even as the people are demanding the prosecution of officials for corruption, as well as the restoration of looted funds. Interestingly, the Swiss parliament has given Lebanon the right to access data regarding bank accounts in the country, paving the way for restoring these funds.
In short, Iran is growing weaker, more fragmented and isolated. It is still using its regional cards with a sense of arrogance. It is ignoring the other option it has – of reforming the logic of the regime, which says it has the right to spawn loyal militias in sovereign countries in complete disregard of their people’s demands and self-determination. If only it had the wisdom to adjust its behaviour, it would become a influential nation in the region without having to expand beyond its borders.
*Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute
